#116 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Northern Illinois Huskies (+) over Central Michigan Chippewas, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Central Michigan is off a tight win at home but they were helped by a pair of Ohio University turnovers.  Also, the Bobcats simply aren't on the level with the Buffalo team that Northern Illinois had to face last week.  In fact, heading into the season many had Buffalo pegged as the best team in the MAC this season.  That said, even though the Huskies lost ugly on the scoreboard against the Bulls there are a couple of important factors to note.  One is that it was a big-time revenge game for Buffalo.  Another is that Northern Illinois was done in by turnovers in that game as too many fumbles were the difference in that one.  In fact the Huskies actually outgained the Bulls and had 26 first downs compared to just 14 for Buffalo.  Now Northern Illinois is in the 2nd of back to back home games and will certainly take better care of the ball in this one.  Central Michigan is being over-valued as this line opened up at a 6 but has moved up past the -7 mark as of Tuesday evening.  The Chippewas are getting too much respect here.  Even if QB David Moore returned from his suspension for this one it would be his first live game action in a full year.  If Central Michigan is again without Moore, most likely, it will be a redshirt freshman Daniel Richardson making his first ever road start at QB.  This will be much tougher on Richardson in comparison with playing at home last week.  The Huskies also have revenge on their minds here as they got blasted at Central Michigan last season.  The last time the Chippewas visited Northern Illinois the Chips lost by a 24-16 margin.  Per our computer math model this game has high probability that it will be a game decided by a single possession which means great value with the Huskies available in the +7.5 range for this one.  This one has potential for a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with Northern Illinois

ASA PLAY ON 8* Bowling Green Falcons (+) vs Kent State Golden Flashes, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #110

Kent State is off a win last week but it was a tight one even though it came against an Eastern Michigan team many project to be the worst team in the MAC West this season.  Bowling Green, on the other hand, is off an ugly loss but they faced a team that many expect to be the best team in the MAC West this season.  Also, the Falcons were playing right into the teeth of revenge when they faced the Rockets at Toledo last week.  As for the Golden Flashes, they were at home last week but now they are on the road and there has been an overreaction by the markets based on last week's results.  This line is up near a full 3 TDs now and, per our computer math model, that big of a number is simply not justifiable here.  The last time these teams met at Bowling Green, Kent State won the game by just a single TD.  Yes the Golden Flashes blasted the Falcons last season but the first downs were 34-20 in that game and a key difference was a 2-0 turnover differential.  That is the only reason that game ended up with such a wild margin.  Kent State allowed 473.5 yards per game last season which was one of the worst marks in the nation and their defense will give up plenty here on the road and that will make it very tough for the Golden Flashes to cover this inflated pointspread.  Grab the points with Bowling Green in what is forecast to be a much closer game than expected for this big home dog in evening action Tuesday.

#375 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -12 over Kansas State, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - One of the most misleading finals on the board last Saturday was OSU’s loss to Texas. In that 41-34 OT loss, OSU was +15 first downs, outgained the Longhorns 530 to 287 but had 4 turnovers (Texas had 0) which led to directly to half of UT’s points. In the first half alone, Texas scored 20 points and 13 of those came on 17 total yards of offense (a 15-yard TD drive, a 5-yard drive that ended in a FG, and a -3 yard drive that ended in a FG). Texas also scored on a 100-yard kickoff return in the 2nd half. The Horns came into the game averaging 490 YPG on offense so the OSU defense, which is really good this year, held them 200 yards below their average. The Cowboys rank 14th nationally in total defense and they’ve held every opponent this year below their season average in YPG. The only defense in the Big 12 that is ranked ahead of them (slightly) is West Virginia and the Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 points and 225 total yards in their 37-10 win last Saturday. KSU will have all sorts of problems with this Oklahoma State defense as well. The Cats lost starting QB Thompson for the season a few weeks ago. His replacement Will Howard is a freshman with very little experience. Howard has now started 3 games and if you subtract KSU’s game vs Kansas who stinks, they have scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s with him under center. The Wildcats 4-2 record doesn’t look bad but the fact is they are getting outgained by almost 100 YPG and they’ve been outgained by every team they’ve faced this year with the exception of Kansas. That includes Arkansas State who upset KSU 35-31. The Cats do have a signature win over Oklahoma this year which might be keeping them overvalued but they were beaten badly in the stat sheet in that game as well with the exception of turnovers (Oklahoma had 4 / KSU had 0). They also trailed by 21 in that game but had senior QB Thompson in the line up to help with the comeback. The Cowboys offense has averaged 35 PPG over their last 3 games and they received a big boost when starting QB Sanders returned two weeks ago vs Iowa State. He has thrown for over 600 yards and 5 TD’s in his 2 games since returning. He and the OSU offense should have a field day vs a Kansas State defense that is allowing 437 YPG ranking them 78th in total defense out of 113. Last week they allowed WVU to roll up almost 500 yards and tally 37 points. We don’t think Kansas State will be able to keep up here. The Cowboys have rebounded well off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record off their last 8 defeats and they want to rebound from last week’s disappointing loss as they head into a bye week. Lay it as this has the makings of an easy win for Oklahoma State.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Michigan -3 over Indiana, 12:00 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for Michigan. They are coming off a home loss vs Michigan State while IU sits on top of the Big Ten East with a 2-0 record, tied with OSU. The Hoosiers are very fortunate to be undefeated. They topped PSU in OT in week 1 despite getting outgained 488 to 211 and outrushed 250 to 41. Last week they beat a Rutgers team that just ended a 23 game conference losing streak a week prior. So in essence, IU won a game they shouldn’t have and beat Rutgers. Big deal. Michigan destroyed Minnesota in week 1 putting up 49 points. Last week it looked like they were a bit full of themselves entering their game vs arch rival MSU who was off a loss to Rutgers (due to 7 MSU turnovers). Sparty definitely looked like the more motivated team and pulled the upset. The Wolverines should be very motivated here off that performance. Their offense has been good putting up 481 vs Minnesota and 452 vs a solid MSU defense. On defense they’ve been solid against the run and struggled a bit vs the pass. IU can’t run the ball. They’ve averaged 1.6 YPC vs PSU and 2.6 YPC vs Rutgers. Michigan should shut down that portion of their offense making them one dimensional. Indiana QB Penix is solid but not the type of throwing quarterback you want to carry a team through the air. These 2 have faced off 32 times since 1980. Michigan has won 31 of those games and has been favored in all 32. This current line of Michigan -3 is the lowest spread ever in this series. Michigan was favored by 10 here last year with fans in the stands for IU (Mich won 39-14). Now they are a full TD lower just 1 year later with in an empty IU stadium? Looks like the Wolverines are undervalued coming off their loss while Indiana is overvalued with their 2-0 start. Lay the points with Michigan.

ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #377

A key factor during the season to find value on a weekly basis is to find games which fit the bill as a phony final where the scoreboard just does not match what truly took place on the field and the box score serves as the evidence! One of the most misleading finals on the board last Saturday was Texas getting an upset win over Oklahoma State. In that 41-34 OT win, Texas was -15 first downs, the Longhorns were outgained 530 to 287 but had a 4-0 turnover edge which led to directly to half of UT’s points. In the first half alone, Texas scored 20 points and 13 of those came on 17 total yards of offense (a 15-yard TD drive, a 5-yard drive that ended in a FG, and a -3 yard drive that ended in a FG). Texas also scored on a 100-yard kickoff return in the 2nd half. The Horns came into the game averaging 490 YPG on offense but it was quickly proven that a solid defense could give them problems (held under 300 yards in the OT win). Indeed, last week Texas faced an OSU defense that is really good this year and now the Longhorns face the only defense in the Big 12 that is ranked ahead of the Cowboys and that is West Virginia. The Mountaineers have been fantastic on that side of the ball this season and held Kansas State to just 10 points and 225 total yards in their 37-10 win last Saturday. Texas will have some problems with this West Virginia defense as well. The Mountaineers are allowing just 19.8 points and only 255.7 yards per game this season. Their defense rates a huge edge over that of the Longhorns. Texas allowed just 3 points in their season opener but that was against an out-classed UTEP team. Since then, UT has allowed 38.4 points per game. As you can see, that is almost exactly DOUBLE what the West Virginia defense is allowing this season. This is also a revenge game for the Mountaineers as they lost last season's match-up 42-31. In fact, this series has been dominated by the road team and West Virginia won at Texas 42-41 in 2018. It looks like another upset could be in the offing in this one! Mountaineers QB Doege has thrown for 300+ yards in 3 straight games and faces a Horns pass defense that has struggled in Big 12 games. Look for the road to improve to 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these teams as coach Herman's team falls to 3-10 ATS the last 13 times they have been a home favorite in Big 12 action. As you can see above, there is strong situational value in this spot and per our computer math model, the forecast is a close game with great potential for an outright upset for the road team in this one. Grab the points in this Saturday early afternoon Big 12 match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Colorado State Rams (+) vs Wyoming Cowboys, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #306

The Mountain West Conference season is just getting going and, as per usual, early on in the season there can be an over-reaction to just one game.  We feel that is the case here as the Rams lost by 21 points at Fresno State last week and now come into this game as a home dog of more than a field goal.  Our computer math model projections are forecasting that Colorado State will play much better at home this week.  Wyoming is off a big win versus Hawaii but that was at home.  The Cowboys are now back on the road and they lost their only road game this season.  Wyoming did force OT in their lone away game, at Nevada, but actually trailed that game by 15 points entering the 4th quarter.  The Rams best receiver, Dante Wright, missed the season opener but has been upgraded to probable for this game and that will open up the passing game for Colorado State.  The Rams will take advantage of a Wyoming defense that did allow nearly 500 yards at Nevada in their season opener.  Cowboys offense is a "run first" team and the Rams allowed just 84 rushing yards on 43 carries last week.  In other words, this one sets up very well for the host.  Grab the points with Colorado State in what could be an underdog upset and what is forecast to be, at the very least, an ATS cover for the home dog in evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +13 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We feel the Giants are in a great situational spot here with 10 days to rest & prepare off their Thursday night game. Tampa made the long trip to Las Vegas last Sunday and they are on the road again this week. Great value as well on the home team here as this spread opened Bucs -8.5 or -9, which is where we have it power rated, and it’s been pushed all the way to -13 as Tampa is now officially a public team. This number is more than double Tampa’s highest road number this year – they were favored by 6 @ Denver, at team we have rated very closely to the Giants. While NY has a poor overall record, they’ve been competitive for the most part. All but 1 of their games has been decided by 10 points or less with 4 of those games being decided by 4 points or less. The Giants have been able to hang in most of their games due to a solid yet underrated defense. They rank in the top 13 in the NFL in both YPG allowed and YPP allowed. They’ve given up 26 points or less in 5 of their games and when your getting nearly 2 TD’s that significant. Offensively they’ve started to come around after not topping 16 in any of their first 4 games the Giants have put up 34, 20, and 21 points their last 3. Tampa has a HUGE game with AFC South rival New Orleans next Sunday and we expect the Giants to give them a good run in this one. Take the points.

#268 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Chicago +4.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not huge proponents of Chicago this year as their offense has struggled, but this line in flat out wrong in our opinion.  The Bears are getting almost a TD (5 points as of this writing) vs a team we feel is drastically overvalued.  For comparison’s sake, the Saints were favored by 3 @ Detroit and by 4 @ Las Vegas in their 2 road games this year.  They lost by 10 @ Vegas and had to hold on late to beat the Lions 35-29.  Now they are laying more than that to a Bears team that is 5-2?  The Saints simply aren’t that great this year.  They have 4 wins and 3 of those have come by 6 points or less.  Last week they held on at home to beat the Panthers 27-24 but Carolina outgained them on a YPP basis.  New Orleans ran 24 more offensive plays in that game and were only able to win by 3 game home vs Carolina.  The same Panther team the Bears beat on the road by 7 a week earlier.  Prior to their Carolina win, the Saints had to come from 17 points down at home to nip the Chargers in OT.  Bears might be without WR Robinson in this game (questionable) however New Orleans will be without their top 3 WR’s here as Thomas, Sanders, and Callaway have all been ruled out.  The Saints haven’t been on the road since October 4th and they have played a single game outdoors this season.  New Orleans is an indoor, fast track team.  On Sunday they are going to get 25 MPH winds and temps in the 30’s (windchill in the 20’s) at Soldier Field facing one of the top defenses in the NFL.  We get it, Chicago looked bad on Monday night and their offense has struggled.  However, this is simply too much value on the home team to pass up in this spot.  Chicago bounces back after a poor performance, their offense looks better, and their defense continues their stellar play on Sunday.  This one goes to the wire and we grab the points with Chicago.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Louisville Cardinals (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #122

Louisville did lose at home to Miami this season but the Hurricanes only loss this season was to Clemson so the 5-1 Canes are having quite a season. The point is that the Cardinals can be a tough team at home and they have proven that with their other two games seeing them prevail by a combined score of 83 to 37 which includes last week thrashing of Florida State. We like taking teams in back to back home games when they are off a dominating win and building confidence. This is a Louisville team on the rise under coach Scott Satterfield who is now in his 2nd season here. Satterfield went 40-11 in his last 4 seasons with Appalachian State before coming to Louisville. Though the Cards are a tough 2-4 this season they easily covered at Notre Dame when they lost by just 5 as a 15.5 dog and also lost by just 3 in a tough road game at Pittsburgh. Considering those tight losses and the fact the Cardinals are off a big confidence-boosting win you can see why we like having them as a home dog in this spot. Louisville gained 569 yards of offense last week and only had to punt twice and now they host a Hokies team that is 0-3 ATS in road games this season! This is a back to back road situation for Virginia Tech for the 2nd time this season. How did the first one go? In the 2nd game of the back to back the Hokies allowed 56 points in a loss at North Carolina! Per our computer math model, Virginia Tech is going to drop to 4-12 ATS the last 16 times they have been a road favorite. This is a great spot for the home dog so we're grabbing the points in this Saturday afternoon ACC match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss Rebels (-) over Vanderbilt, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #185

This line may seem surprising to some considering that the Rebels record of 1-4 certainly doesn't seem worthy of this large of a point spread on the road. However, the key here is just how truly bad this Vanderbilt team is right now on both sides of the ball. The Commodores simply will not be able to keep up with a high-powered Ole Miss offense. The Rebels 34.8 points per game average is more than the TOTAL points that Vandy has scored all season! Indeed, Vanderbilt has totaled only 26 points in their 3 games. Though losing to A & M by just a 5 point margin in their first game is, on the surface, impressive, turnovers played a role in that game and helped keep Vandy in it. In their next two games the Vandy problems were not masked by turnover differential and they got blown out by a combined score of 82-14 in those two games. The Commonders defense allows 7.25 yards per play and their offense averages only 3.95 yards per play. This ranks Vandy among the worst teams in the nation on both sides of the ball. Ole Miss comes into this game angry about their 1-4 record on the season and also about feeling a bit "cheated" by a key officiating blunder in last week's loss to Auburn. With a bye week on deck, and a ton of penned up frustration to let loose, the Rebels are ready to completely obliterate the next team they see. That said, this Commodores team is in for a long afternoon even though they are on their home field. The Rebels, given the situation, will simply not let up here, and this is an offense that is averaging 521 yards per game which is more than double what the Commodores average at 257 per game. Vanderbilt also has been heavily impacted by covid issues this season and will be playing for the first time in 3 weeks! The Commodores lost by 25 at Ole Miss last season and our computer math model is forecasting a similar point differential in this one even though this game is at Vanderbilt. Ensuring the proper focus here for Ole Miss is the fact they did lose their last visit to Vandy two years ago and they have been reminded of that heading into this game. Though they lost that one by a TD it was a fluke loss as the Rebels outgained Vanderbilt by nearly 200 yards in that one! Last season, by the way, the Rebels outgained the Commodores by 242 yards. The point being that the Commodores have proven time and time again that they can not stop this Ole Miss potent attack and their ground game is phenomenal this season with two of the top rushers in the nation! On the other side of the line, the Rebels defense has been a problem this season but facing one of the worst offenses in the nation will prove to be the perfect remedy. That said, we see no way in the world that the Commodores are going to be able to keep up with an Ole Miss offense that is highly motivated and averaged 42 points in its first 3 games this season and that included games against Florida, Kentucky, and Alabama. Lay the big points and look for a dominating road rout in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Michigan State +24.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This line is simply too high for this rivalry. Last year’s line was Michigan -13.5 at home WITH fans and now just one year later we are looking at the Wolverines nearly 2 TD’s higher in an empty stadium. Let’s not overreact to what happened last week which is why this line is so high. MSU lost at home to Rutgers, we get it. However, they outgained the Knights by nearly 100 yards but had SEVEN turnovers. MSU’s first 6 offensive possessions went like this – fumble, fumble, shut out on downs, TD, interception, and fumble. You simply have zero chance to win a game at any level if you turn the ball over on half of your offensive possessions which is exactly what the Spartans did. Defensively they were solid. The allowed barely over 2.0 YPC on the ground and they held Rutgers to less than 4.0 YPP. Michigan looked great last week (overvalued now?). They took on a Minnesota team that was returning most of their key players offensively but had to retool nearly their entire defense. The Gophs also announced just before game time they would be without 2 starting offensive lineman along with their top LB (COVID issues). Thus the new sports handicapping world we live in where PJ Fleck keeps that under wraps from everyone until right before the game starts (we had Minnesota). Let’s not forget Michigan has a brand new QB who made his first ever start, 4 new offensive lineman, and they lost their top 2 receivers from last year. Now they face an MSU defense that should be fairly solid this year and we don’t expect them to put up 40+ as they did last week vs a depleted Minnesota defense. We expect new head coach Mel Tucker to rally the troops this week after an embarrassing performance last Saturday. This is the 2nd highest spread EVER in this series and only TWICE in the last 27 games in this series has there been a winning margin of more than 24 points. The line value is definitely on MSU here and we’ll take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (-) over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #118

Kansas State is off a big win over the Jayhawks. Of course Kansas is a bad football team but that is still a big game every year for the Wildcats as that is their long-time in-state rival. Off that big win, Kansas State is in trouble here as they face a Mountaineers team that comes in angry off a loss at Texas Tech. West Virginia outgained the Red Raiders by nearly 100 yards but were done in by a late fumble return for a touchdown! The Mountaineers are allowing only 262 yards per game this season and the Wildcats go from facing a bad Kansas team to now facing what has been one of the top defenses in the nation so far this season. The Mountaineers have covered each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and have 4 straight SU wins in the series as well. The Wildcats are playing their 6th game this season and so far have won the yardage battle in only 1 game this season! On the other hand, West Virginia is averaging 461 and allowing only 262 per game. The markets are a bit enamored with Kansas State here because their big win over the Jayhawks was their 4th straight cover. That is keeping this line lower than is should be and the marketplace has a short attention span and simply sees West Virginia as the team that lost to Texas Tech last week. That leads to value in a spot like this as our computer math model is forecasting a big win by a double digit margin for the home team in this one. Lay the points and look for a blowout home win in this Saturday early afternoon Big 12 match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 8* ATLANTA - Carolina has been an underdog in 6 of their 7 games this year. Their one shot as a favorite they lost by a TD to a Chicago team that isn’t looking all that great right now. The Panthers are coming off a huge division game @ New Orleans which went to the wire with the Saints winning by 3. Even though this is a division game as well, the Falcons are just 1-6 SU on the year so we wouldn’t be surprised if Carolina is a bit flat here as they have already beaten the Falcons. Atlanta has improved since their first meeting with Carolina which was a 23-16 loss. After they canned head coach Quinn the Birds beat Minnesota by 17 and lost to Detroit by 1 point in a very fluky ending. The Lions scored with no time remaining last week to pick up a 23-22 win. Defensively they allowed 32 PPG in their first 5 games and after Quinn was removed they are allowing 23 PPG with one of those games coming vs a Minnesota offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in YPP. There is something very fishy about this line. It opened Carolina -3 and despite more than 70% of the tickets coming in on the Panthers, it’s down to -2.5 and even -2 at some spots. Despite their earlier result vs Carolina this year, Atlanta has won and covered 8 of the last 10 in this series and we think they win outright tonight. Take the Falcons.

ASA PLAY 8* ON South Alabama Jaguars (+) @ Georgia Southern Eagles, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #104

The Jaguars are the hotter team with back to back wins and covers and plus are now 4-1 ATS on the season. Also, South Alabama has played the tougher early season schedule in comparison with Georgia Southern. The Eagles, despite playing a weaker schedule, have not impressed. Georgia Southern is just 2-3 ATS this season. Their only big SU win was a blowout win over a very bad UMass team. The Eagles other 2 SU wins were by a combined 6 points even though Georgia Southern was favored by an average spread of 27 in those two games - against Campbell and UL-Monroe. Part of the reason for the line value here is because Georgia Southern has dominated this series with South Alabama and that is "baked into" this line which is making it higher than it should be. The Eagles are getting some shading for that as well as shading for the home field edge here. However, the Jaguars went 6-2 ATS last year as an underdog in SunBelt Conference action. Also, South Alabama beat UL-Monroe by 24 points last week and that is the same team that Georgia Southern only beat by a margin of 5 points. It looks like this is the year the Jags finally turn the tables on the Eagles and this one sets up well with underdog value. Grab the points with South Alabama in what could be an underdog upset and what is forecast to be, at the very least, an ATS cover for the road dog in evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -6 over the Chicago Bears, Monday 8:25 PM ET - Let’s compare how these two teams currently sit in their scheduling situation. The 5-1 Bears are off a misleading win in Carolina, while the 4-2 Rams are off a Divisional loss to the 49ers. Chicago didn’t play great in Carolina with QB Nick Foles throwing for under 200 yards and the offense gaining less than 260 on the day. The Bears were outgained in the game 4.9 yards per play to 4.1YPPL but Carolina had 3 turnovers. Chicago’s offense has been brutal this year ranking 28th in yards per play offense and 27th in scoring. Against the good defenses they’ve faced (Indy, TBay and Carolina) they have averaged less than 270-total yards of offense. The Bears will face a great Rams defense tonight that is 4th in yards per game allowed and 5th in scoring D allowing just 19PPG. Los Angeles lost in San Francisco last week which doesn’t look as bad as it was now that the 49ers are getting healthy and destroyed New England on the road yesterday. The Rams are 11-4 SU their last fifteen when coming off a loss and they’ve won those games by an average of 7.6PPG which clearly gets us a cover here. Yes, these defenses are near even but the Rams have the 10th best offense in yards gained per game and have won 39 of their last 58 at home since 2017. Their average margin of victory in those games is +6PPG. Bears QB Nick Foles is best when he’s comfortable in the pocket and not pressured but that won’t be the case tonight against this Rams defense led by DE Aaron Donald. As long as this line is under a TD we will side with the Rams.

#467 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Seattle -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Arizona looks like they are rolling going 2-1 on their 3 game road trip. Not so fast. Their wins on that road trip were the winless Jets and struggling Cowboys (without Prescott at QB). Minus their win over San Francisco in the season opener where they were outgained 6.0 to 5.2 YPP, Arizona’s win shave come against teams with a combined record of 3-15 with Washington being their other win besides the two mentioned above. While the Cards on a short week after winning @ Dallas on Monday, they get to face a rested 5-0 (4-1 ATS) Seattle team coming off a bye week. This will be Seattle’s 3rd road game of the season and their first 2 were 8 & 27 point wins. That puts Seattle at 2-0 ATS on the road this year and 13-3-2 ATS their last 18 games away from home. QB Russell Wilson is 72-54-7 ATS in his career in the regular season. Road team 9-1-1 ATS last 11 meetings. Seattle has owned the Cards on the road where they are 6-0-1 SU (5-1-1 ATS) their last 7 trips here including a 27-10 here last season. The Seahawks average margin of victory over that 7 game span was +14 points. We’ll take the better team in the better situation here. Lay it with Seattle.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 8:08 PM ET

As we mentioned in previous analysis involving this World Series, the betting markets love the Dodgers. That makes sense too because they are, of course, a great team. But, at the same time, the Rays are very strong as well and yet don't get near the respect from the betting markets. Keep in mind the Dodgers have lost each of the last two times they have made it to the World Series and now the Dodgers are off an epic collapse in last night's Game 4 after they were 1 strike away from a 3-1 series lead. Yes, Clayton Kershaw was great in Game 1 but he has a history of World Series struggles and now the pressure is on the Dodgers after blowing last night's game. Yes, Tyler Glasnow struggled with his command in Game 1 but he is very likely to be much better in his 2nd World Series appearance after working out the jitters. Additionally, Glasnow did strike out 8 while giving up just 3 hits in that first appearance so it wasn't all bad! Also, the Rays are 11-7 in this post-season and 2 of those losses came by a single run. That means if you had the Rays +1.5 in all their post-season games you would be 13-5 for a 72% win rate. Our computer math model is reflecting great potential for an upset and, if Rays fall short, a tight loss. That being said, the value is with laying a very fair price to have the 1.5 runs on your side with underdog TB in this one. Keep in mind, last night's game would have been a one run loss for TB were it not for the winning Rays hit when they were down to their last strike. Again, value is big here with the +1.5 runs on your side. Bet the Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 runs in evening action Sunday.

#470 ASA PLAY 8* ON New England -2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Great spot for the Patriots who played a poor game last week in a home loss vs Denver. It was New England’s 2nd straight loss after getting beat by KC in their previous game with QB Cam Newton out. With Belichick as the head coach, the Patriots are a perfect 9-0 SU since 2002 when coming off back to back SU losses. Last week wasn’t a great situation for the Pats as they had only been able to practice once in full pads in the previous 2 weeks to do COVID issues. They looked rusty, as expected, with 3 turnovers in the game. Now coming off the loss they have been able to get a full week of practice in and we expect a much better performance. Before their home loss to the Broncos, the Patriots won both of their home tilts by double digits. San Fran is off a huge, must win, home game vs the Rams. They had lost back to back home games to Philly & Miami and simply had to win that game last week. We expect a bit of a letdown here in their first road game since September 27th. Let’s not forget, the 49ers previous 2 wins this season before their upset last week came against the Giants and the Jets who have a combined 1-12 record and a combined point differential of -162 points. This look ahead line last week on this game was Patriots -5.5 and we’re getting them a full FG lower than that simply based on last week’s results. The value is absolutely on the Patriots who thrive in this spot and are now in a must win situation of their own with 3 of their next 4 games coming on the road. Team off a SU loss as a favorite (Pats) vs a team off a SU win as an underdog (Niners) is a very solid situational play in the NFL. We’ll take New England here.

#451 ASA PLAY 8* ON Cleveland -3 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Browns looked terrible in last week’s 38-7 loss @ Pittsburgh and we expect them to bounce back and play very well this week. Cleveland has lost @ Pitt and @ Baltimore and then beaten all of the teams they should have beaten (Browns favored) in every other game. Against everyone not named the Steelers or Ravens, this Cleveland offense has averaged 37 PPG with an average margin of victory of 10 points. One of those games was against this Bengal team in the 2nd game of the season, a game the Browns won 35-30. It wasn’t as close as the final score as Cleveland dominated averaging 7.5 YPP in the game to just 4.0 YPP for Cincy. The Bengals scored a TD with 43 seconds remaining in the game to cut the lead down to 5. Cincinnati ran 30 MORE offensive plays in the game and still lost by 5! The Bengal offense ranks near the bottom of the NFL in scoring, YPG, YPP, and 3rd down efficiency. We just don’t see them keeping up here. They also could be a bit demoralized after blowing a big lead vs the Colts last week in a 31-27 loss. Again they were dominated on the stat sheet in that game allowing Indy 7.2 YPP while gaining just 5.5. Their lone win this year was against Jacksonville, who along with the Jets, are rated as the 2 worst teams in the NFL. While Cleveland QB Mayfield had a rib injury, we expect him to play and even if not, we’re fine with veteran Case Keenum at the helm. Cincy’s already struggling offense will be without one of it’s top weapons as RB Mixon has been ruled out with an injury. The Browns are the much better team in this match up and the situation is very good with them coming off a blowout loss. Lay the small number.

#461 ASA PLAY 8* ON Carolina +7 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We’re simply not sold on the Saints as one of the top teams in the NFL. They’re laying a full TD here and they’ve won only one game this year by 7 or more. That was a game vs Tampa (won by 9) in which the Bucs dominated the stats but had turnover problems including a Tom Brady pick 6. They have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games with their only pointspread win during that stretch coming at Detroit winning by 5 as a 3-point favorite. In their most recent game, New Orleans fell behind by 17 points at home to the Chargers and had to rally back for an OT win. They’ll also be without both starting WR’s with Sanders and Thomas on the shelf. Carolina is coming off a home loss to the Bears last week. Turnovers were a huge problem as the Panthers had 3 to Chicago’s 1. Carolina actually outgained the Bears 303 to 261 and only had to punt once the entire game (Bears punted 4 times). The Cats have a solid +0.7 YPP differential on the season which is actually better than the Saints who are +0.5. The Panthers have already won 3 games outright this season as an underdog and QB Bridgewater has been a huge money maker covering 30 of his 40 starts in his NFL career (75%). We think this one goes to the wire and we’ll take the points.

#386 ASA PLAY 7* ON Minnesota +3 over Michigan, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We think the line value is with the Gophers in this game. We have this game power rated to a pick-em. Michigan gets the 3 point bump because of their name value I guess. The Wolverines offense is a complete unknown coming into the season and will be a work in progress. Their new starting QB Milton has thrown 11 passes in his college career. He’ll be operating behind a brand new offensive line that lost 4 of 5 starters from last season. They also lost their top 2 WR’s Black and Collins. Minnesota, on the other hand, is one of the most experienced offenses in college football. They averaged 34 PPG last year and bring back nearly everyone including QB Morgan who led the Big 10 in passing YPG last season. He’ll be operating behind an offensive line that brings everyone back and throwing to one of the best WR in the country in Bateman. Both defenses have some question marks this season and while we expect Michigan to be solid on that side of the ball as they always are, let’s not forget this Minnesota defense finished 10th nationally in total defense last year. Again, they have to replace some key players on that side of the ball but so do the Wolverines. Entering the season we’d give Michigan an edge defensively but Minnesota a much larger edge on offense. Let’s also not forget that Minnesota was 11-2 last year and beat the 2nd place team from the Big 10 East (Penn State) along with Auburn in their bowl game. They should feel a bit disrespected being a home underdog in their season opener after their successful run last year. Speaking of home underdog, Minnesota has fallen into that role 36 times since 2007 and they are a money making 23-13 ATS in that spot. We like Minnesota here vs a Michigan team we feel is overrated coming into the season.

#318 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Pittsburgh +10 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - In our opinion, Notre Dame is vastly overvalued at this point of the season due to their perfect 4-0 record. However, they haven’t beaten a single team that currently has a winning record and the combined record of the 4 teams they’ve played is 5-16. Last week they played host to Louisville, who in our power ratings is the best team the Irish have faced, and ND escaped with a 12-7 win. The Irish were held to just 4.9 YPP vs a Louisville team that ranks 32nd nationally in total defense (out of 77). The Notre Dame offense struggled with the Cards last week and now face, by far, the best defense they’ve seen this year as Pitt ranks 7th nationally in total defense. On top of that, ND relies heavily on their running game averaging 45 carries per game (12th most in the country) and Pitt’s defense ranks #1 in the nation in rush defense allowing only 61 YPG. The Panthers are much better than their 3-3 record. They’ve lost 3 straight games by a combined 14 points. Last week they played @ Miami and lost 31-19 but the yardage was close (Pitt outgained by 30 yards) and the defense played very well holding a potent Cane offense to just 331 total yards. Miami did score 31 points but 3 of their TD drives started on Pittsburgh’s half of the field due to turnovers and the Panthers getting shut out on downs. They might be without starting QB Pickett again this week (although he has not been ruled out) but his backup Yellen got his feet wet last week throwing for 277 yards vs Miami. We have Pitt rated about dead even with Louisville so this will be the best team the Irish have played (along with the Cards) AND their first road game of the season. These two programs have faced off 12 times since 2002 with the margin of victory being 8 or less in 10 of those games. Pitt will give Notre Dame all they can handle here and we grab the generous points siding with the home dog.

#346 ASA PLAY 8* ON Texas Longhorns -9.5 over Baylor Bears, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Kansas is 0-4 this season and has lost those 4 games by an average margin of defeat of 28 points. What does that have to do with this play? Well the only win Baylor has came against the Jayhawks in their first game of the season. Baylor's only other game was a loss at West Virginia. Though that was a tight loss (in double OT) for the Bears, they were fortunate they were even in the game. Baylor benefited from being +2 in turnovers in that game and they only had 256 yards of offense in that one! The Bears came into this season with a lot of issues and have been dealing with Covid complications too and that is why they have played only 2 games so far this year! Considering all the pandemic-related issues and the fact the Bears have a new coach this has already been a challenging season for Baylor and they are only two games into it. Things get much tougher this week as the Bears and Horns are rivals and UT is out for revenge after losing last year's game by a two TD margin despite the yardage being equal. Texas is the much better team in this year's match-up and they will roll at home. The Longhorns have a big edge here as they have played 4 games already so they have an edge of 2 extra games under their belts. Also, the situation is ideal as they were off last week but that followed back to back tight losses to TCU and Oklahoma. The Longhorns are chomping at the bit to get back on the field. While their defense has been an issue this season, the UT offense has been nearly unstoppable. The Horns are an efficient offense that plays fast and they are averaging 49.5 points per game this season. Even taking OT points out of the equation, the Longhorns are averaging 44.2 points per game this year. The Bear simply won't be able to keep up. Yes the Texas defense has been a weakness this season but they allowed just 18 points and 345 yards per game in their two home games. They will respond here at home and take advantage of a struggling Bears offense in this one. The Longhorns have had one two-game losing streak each of the last 3 seasons. The streak never reached 3 in any of the 3 seasons. The result was a 3-0 mark with an average margin of victory of 21 points. Per our computer math model, the Longhorns have a high probability of winning this game by a margin of 2 to 3 touchdowns. Lay the points and look for a home blowout in this Saturday afternoon Big 12 match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 8:08 PM ET

As we mentioned in previous analysis involving this World Series, the betting markets love the Dodgers.  That makes sense too because they are, of course, a great team.  But, at the same time, the Rays are very strong as well and yet don't get near the respect from the betting markets.  Keep in mind the Dodgers have lost each of the last two times they have made it to the World Series and now Walker Buehler gets the start here and he has been dealing with blister issues which has changed his repertoire of available pitches to an extent.  Of course Tampa Bay is aware of this and plus they got some key hitters back on track in their resounding Game 2 win on Wednesday.  Now on Friday the Rays turn to Charlie Morton on the mound and he has been fantastic in this post-season and in post-season appearances ever since he came to Tampa Bay.  He is very undervalued in this spot.  Also, the Rays are 10-6 in this post-season and 2 of those losses came by a single run.  That means if you had the Rays +1.5 in all their post-season games you would be 12-4 for a 75% win rate.  Our computer math model is reflecting great potential for an upset and, if Rays fall short, a tight loss.  That being said, the value is with laying a very fair price to have the 1.5 runs on your side with underdog TB in this one.  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 runs in evening action Friday.

#310 ASA PLAY 8* ON UAB Blazers (+) over Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns, Friday at 8 PM ET - Earlier this week UAB was as much as a 3 point favorite. Now the Blazers are a 3 point dog. This is a fantastic value especially when you consider that UAB is on a 21-0 SU run in home games! The Blazers are battle-tested already as they had to face Miami this season. As you would expect, UAB lost that game by double digits but they are 4-0 SU in their other games. In those 4 victories the Blazers are averaging 36.3 points per game. In their last 3 games, UAB has allowed an average of only 12.3 points per game. Also, though they struggled against Miami (as expected), the Blazers have allowed only 285 yards per game in their other 4 games. Their defense is playing well, their offense is playing with confidence with scoring 37 points or more in 3 of their 4 victories and now they are at home where they also have plenty of confidence due to their long-term success here! Louisiana Lafayette still seems to be overvalued from their surprising upset of Iowa State earlier this season. The Ragin' Cajuns are actually 0-3 ATS since that win as 2 of their victories since then have come by 3 or less points. Now UL-Lafayette is off a loss to Coastal Carolina as they enter this game. The Ragin' Cajuns defense just does not seem to be on the same level as last year. Ever since the upset of the Cyclones in Week 1, ULL has been gashed and is giving up an average of 427 yards per game. Per our computer math model, Louisiana Lafayette will struggle to stop the balanced offensive attack of UAB as RB Brown delivers a big game for the Blazers. Couple that with a strong game from the Alabama-Birmingham defense, this match-up is set to go very well for the host! This one has the makings of a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with UAB

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia -4.5 over NY Giants, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Watching the Eagles their last 2 games, it looks to us like Philly is starting to round into form despite their 1-4-1 record. The last 2 Sundays they’ve stood toe to toe with 2 of the best teams in the NFL, Pittsburgh & Baltimore. They outgained the Steelers on a yards per play basis and trailed by just 2 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining (lost 38-29). Last week they came from behind and had a chance to tie Baltimore with under 2:00 minutes remaining but the Eagles 2-point conversion was not successful and they lost 30-28. They also outgained the Ravens on a YPP basis in that game. This offense has turned the corner scoring 28 & 29 points vs 2 of the top defenses in the NFL the last 2 weeks. The defense already ranks in the top 10 in YPP allowed and we have a feeling this team is close to turning the corner. The Giants won last week vs Washington to pick up their first win of the season, but they didn’t look great doing it. Washington actually had nearly 100 more total yards, more first downs, and a time of possession edge in the game. NY’s offense has been flat out bad all season, with the exception of their game @ Dallas and we all know how bad the Cowboy defense is right now. If you throw that game out the window, the Giants have scored a grand total of 7 TD’s in their other 5 games. That’s it. The defense is very solid but when you have an offense that only scores 13 PPG (again, minus the Cowboy game) that puts a lot of pressure on the defense. With the way Philly has put points on the board the last few weeks, we think they’ll have success here. We can’t say the same for the NYG offense. Philly was laying almost double digits here vs New York last year (-9.5) and now were getting them at just -4.5. Lay it was we expect the Eagles to win by at least a TD.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Appalachian State Mountaineers (-) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #306

Arkansas State is off a tight 7-point win last Thursday but allowed 52 points in that game. In fact, in each of their last two games against FBS level opponents, the Red Wolves have allowed 52 points each time. That is not going to cut it against a Mountaineers team that is allowing just 19.3 points per game so far this season. Although this is a big number on this game, Appalachian State is the class of the Sun Belt Conference and 8 of their 11 regular season wins last year came by a margin of 14 or more points. The Mountaineers also won their bowl game by 14 points. For the Red Wolves, 2 of their 3 losses in SBC action came by a margin of 14 or more points. Their two non-conference defeats were by an average margin of 31 points last season. Arkansas State has a solid offense but a sieve-like defense. These teams did not meet last season but they did meet the year before. Even though that game was at Arkansas State, the Mountaineers rolled to a 35-9 win. Our computer math model is calling for an equally impressive margin of victory in the rematch here in 2020. Appalachian State allowed 20 points per game last season and their respectable defense is on a similar trajectory already this season. Arkansas State, on the other hand, allowed 34.3 ppg last season and is looking even worse this season with allowing an average of 39.8 points per game even though that included a game against an FCS school too! This one gets ugly as the Mountaineers crush the Red Wolves. Lay the big points with Appalachian State in what should be a massive home blowout in evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 8:09 PM ET

The betting markets love the Dodgers.  That makes sense too because they are, of course, a great team.  But, at the same time, the Rays are very strong as well and yet don't get near the respect from the betting markets.  Keep in mind the Dodgers have lost each of the last two times they have made it to the World Series and Clayton Kershaw certainly has his hand in some of those struggles. Now he enters this one not 100% healthy in our opinion.  In his first start of the post-season he absolutely dominated the Brewers with 13 strikeouts in an 8-inning gem.  However, since then Kershaw has dealt with some back spasm issues and he has allowed 7 earned runs on 13 hits (including 3 homers) in his last 11 innings.  The Rays will take advantage here and the hard-throwing Tyler Glasnow could give the Dodgers some trouble.  He has allowed only 11 hits in his last 13 and 1 / 3 innings and has piled up 25 strikeouts in his 19 and 1 / 3 innings in this post-season.  The Rays are 9-5 in this post-season and 2 of those losses came by a single run.  That means if you had the Rays +1.5 in all their post-season games you would be 11-3 for a 79% win rate.  Our computer math model is reflecting great potential for an upset and, if Rays fall short, a tight loss.  That being said, the value is with laying a very small price to have the 1.5 runs on your side with underdog TB in this one.  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday.

#276 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas +1.5 over Arizona, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This is an overreaction to the Dak Prescott injury along with the Cowboy struggles to date. The Cardinals should not be favored in this match up. First of all, it Arizona’s 3rd straight road game so a tough spot for them. The were smoked at Carolina two weeks ago and then beat the terrible Jets in New York last week. They’ve also lost to the Lions this year which gave Detroit their only win of the season. This is not a team that should be laying points on the road unless they are playing the Jets. Dallas lost Prescott in the 2nd half last week and veteran Andy Dalton, possibly the best back up on the league, came in and led the Cowboys to 13 points in his 5 possessions as they rallied to top the Giants. Dalton is simply not a huge drop off from Prescott. They guy has almost 32,000 passing yards and over 200 TD’s in his career. He is not a full 4 points drop off from Dak as this line was Dallas -3 leading into last week and now they are underdogs. We anticipate the Cowboys rally behind Dalton and play well in their first full game without Dak at QB. Two of Arizona’s wins came over Washington and the Jets who are 1-9 combined. Their other win was in the season opener over the Niners in a game that looked like a great win but in hindsight with San Fran’s struggles it wasn’t look all that impressive. The Boys have just a 2-3 record but their 3 losses have come at the hands of Seattle, LA Rams, and Cleveland who have a combined 13-2 record. Cowboys may get some key players back defensively including their starting MLB Vander Esch. Offensively they rank #1 in the NFL in YPG and 3rd in YPP and we expect them to continue to roll with Dalton at QB. We’ll take advantage of this bad line and take Dallas at home.

#256 ASA PLAY 8* ON Minnesota -4 over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - These are two teams with similar record (Minnesota 1-4 / Atlanta 0-5) but they are heading in opposite directions.  Minnesota is actually playing pretty well, especially on offense.  Their last 3 games including a 1-point loss vs Tennessee (a game the Vikes led for much of), a win at Houston, and a tight loss @ Seattle in a game they led with under 30 seconds left.  So their last 2 losses each came by a single poing vs two teams that are currently undefeated.  We’ve been impressed with their effort and resolve despite their record.  Atlanta is the opposite.  They are 0-5 and playing like an 0-5 team right now.  Their defense stinks, ranking 31st in both YPG allowed and YPP allowed.  They’ve allowed at least 30 points in 4 of their 5 games so if their offense isn’t clicking this team is in trouble.  They definitely haven’t been clicking as of late that’s for sure.  They faced a Green Bay defense that ranks 29th in efficiency and a Carolina defense that ranks 23rd in efficiency that last 2 weeks and scored just 16 points in each.  QB Matt Ryan hasn’t thrown a TD pass since September 28th.  Minnesota’s offense is clicking and will put up plenty of points here.  We don’t think Atlanta can keep up.  On top of that, despite being winless the Falcons have other distractions as well including their head coach getting fired and getting their facility closed this week due to a positive COVID test in the organization.  Not only is Minnesota playing as well as they have all season, Vikes are 45-18 ATS at home vs non-division opponents & 19-4-1 ATS as non-divisional home favorites.  Minny wins this by at least a TD.

#257 ASA PLAY 8* ON Houston +3.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Titans are 4-0 on the season but just 1-3 ATS and they have been outgained by 32 YPG on the season.  They’ve had 3 games go to the wire and they could easily have a few more losses.  Before beating Buffalo handily on Tuesday, the Titans wins came by 2, 3, and 1 points vs Denver, Jacksonville, and Minnesota who have a combined 3-11 record.  Now back to their win on Tuesday night.  They topped Buffalo 42-16 in what looked like a blowout if you simply looked at the final score.  The fact is the Bills actually outgained Tennessee in the game but turned the ball over 3 times which directly led to half of the Titans points (21).  Let’s also not forget Tennessee had a bunch of time off due to COVID quarantines and have practiced very little in the last 2 weeks.  Now they played on a Tuesday and have a very short week here.  We think that catches up to them in this game.  Houston played the toughest schedule in the NFL through their first 3 weeks losing to KC, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  They then lost to a Minnesota team that is really starting to come around and is better than their record.  O’Brien then got canned and this team responded last week with an easy win over Jacksonville 30-14.  The Texans rushed for 129 yards and averaged 8.4 yards per play in that game so their offense looks like they’ve gotten back on track.  Their running game should keep rolling here vs a Tennessee defense that ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 5.8 YPC.  Houston is 12-5-1 ATS the last 18 in this series and we think they have a great shot at the outright win here.  Take the points.

#112 ASA PLAY 8* ON Virginia Tech -11.5 over Boston College, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We love the rushing disparity in this game which is heavily in favor of Va Tech. The Hokies are 12th nationally in total offense and their running game has been fantastic averaging 299 YPG which is good for 3rd nationally behind only 2 run only option teams (Air Force & Army). BC, on the other hand, has had a long, proud tradition of being able to run the ball and that’s is now what is happening this year. Their biggest output on the ground this season was 87 yards vs Texas State and they currently rank 74th out of 76 teams running the ball for only 60 YPG. As good as their running game has been, we now expect their passing game to take off as well with starting QB Hooker back in the line up. He was out the first 3 games of the season and returned last week @ UNC. The Hokies are coming off their first loss of the season @ North Carolina. Down 35-10 at half, Hooker stepped in for Burmeister, who had been starting due to the Hooker injury, and he led them to 31 second half points scoring on 5 of their 6 possessions. Hooker will be starting here and we look for the offensive to be very good vs BC. VT is also starting to get healthy as they have dealt with numerous Covid quarantines over the first few games and they are still 2-1 despite that. In fact, in their opening 2 wins over NC State and Duke, the Hokies had 20+ players in quarantine that were unable to play and they still came out with W’s. BC is 3-1 but they have not played a road game since September 19th. They are off a huge home win last week as they beat Pitt 31-30 in OT when the Panther placekicker missed an extra point in overtime. Despite their 3-1 record, the Eagles are getting outgained on the season. A team that has a solid record but is getting outgained on a regular basis, plus has no running game is a team that we will most often look to fade. Tech’s offense is now at full strength and we saw a glimpse of what it can do last week in the 2nd half vs a very good North Carolina team. Va Tech was upset @ BC last year 35-28 and had 5 turnovers in that game. A little extra motivation for Saturday. We’re going to lay the points here.

#151 ASA PLAY 8* ON Army Black Knights -7.5 over UTSA Roadrunners, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - Last year Army was a 17 point favorite over UTSA and now they are close to just a TD favorite in this year's match-up. This has a lot to do with the Black Knights coming off an unimpressive win over The Citadel last week while the Roadrunners are off an impressive effort at BYU. However, the reality is that all last week's results did was create incredible line value this week. The reason that Army struggled with The Citadel is because the Bulldogs are also an option team and so they are used to seeing it all the time and were able to slow down the Black Knights. Now enter a UTSA defense that rarely sees it plus is coming off a road trip to Utah. This is not a good situation for the Roadrunners and last season Army ran for 340 yards against UTSA. This season Army is averaging 310 rushing yards per game. On defense the Black Knights have been great against the run as they have allowed only 83 rushing yards per game. UTSA managed only 72 yards on the ground at BYU last week. It is tough to win when you lose the rushing stats by a huge margin and that is the projection here per our computer math model. Army dominates the ground game and the scoreboard. The Roadrunners might seem inviting as a home dog but they have actually only covered 3 of the last 9 times they have been in that role. Also, looking at common opponents this season, Army destroyed Middle Tennessee 42-0. That is the same Blue Raiders team that UTSA faced a few weeks ago and only beat 37-35. Against FBS teams, the Runners have allowed 32.8 points per game. Army, in their games against FBS opponents, have allowed just 10.3 points per game. This one has the makings of a road rout and we're laying the points with Army

#124 ASA PLAY 8* ON South Carolina +3 over Auburn, Saturday at 12 Noon ET - We were on Auburn last week and lost as they jumped out to a 17-0 lead but struggled defensively vs Arkansas from that point on. After the Tigers grabbed the 17-0 lead, their defense allowed the Razorbacks to score points on 5 of their final 6 possessions to keep it close in Auburn’s 30-28 win. It was a perfect spot to play on the Tigers coming off an embarrassing 6-point effort vs Georgia while Arkansas was coming off a huge win @ Miss State, breaking their 20 game SEC losing streak. We weren’t at all impressed with the way Auburn responded giving up 437 yards to an offense that came in averaging 277.5 yards per game and had not topped 280 yards in either of their first 2 games, including their win over Mississippi State. South Carolina, on the other hand, has impressed us. They opened the season facing ranked opponents on back to back weeks. They lost by 4 points @ home vs Tennessee in a game the Vols scored a defensive TD which turned out to be the difference in the game. Then @ Florida they lost their 2nd game of the season but played fairly well keeping the yardage near even vs a potent Florida offense. We though their defense played very well in that game, despite allowing 38 points, they held the Gators to just 348 total yards. That’s a Florida offense that is averaging 522 YPG in their other two contests this year vs Texas A&M and Ole Miss. The Gamecocks finally were able to take a step down in competition last week and they blasted Vandy 41-7 on the road. Now back at home getting points is a great spot for South Carolina in our opinion. Despite their 2-1 record Auburn is getting outgained by 92 YPG on the season. The Gamecocks, on the other hand, are outgaining their opponents by 58 YPG and remember they’ve faced 2 ranked opponents already this year. SC also has a very good rush defense allowing just 92 YPG and Auburn relies heavily on running the ball. Auburn has a number of key players questionable for this game as well and we simply like the spot for the home dog. Take the points.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Brigham Young Cougars (-) over Houston Cougars, Friday at 9:30 PM ET: Game #109

Houston finally played a game after many cancellations and postponements early this season.  Even though Houston impressed in that season opening victory, they played a Tulane team that has struggled badly on defense early this season.  Now Houston has to face a BYU team that has absolutely been locked in on defense early this season.  Brigham Young has allowed an average of only 11 points per game in their 4 games this season.  On that note, this is another big edge for BYU in this match-up as they have played 4 games already this season and have had plenty of time to make adjustments on both sides of the ball.  Keep in mind Houston has played just one game and they take a big step up in terms of level of competition this week as they face a ranked BYU team.  Brigham Young is averaging 44 points per game and is going to test the Houston defense in a way that Tulane was unable to.  BYU is led by QB Zach Wilson who has thrown for 1,241 yds with an 81% completion rate and a 8-1 TD-INT ratio.  Wilson also has 6 rushing touchdowns too.  Per our computer math model this game may be close early but BYU eventually wears down Houston and wins this game by a double digit margin.  Lay the points with Brigham Young in what should be a road rout in late night action Friday.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Arkansas State Red Wolves (-) over Georgia State Panthers, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #106

This line opened up at a -5.5 in many books and there was even a -6 out there earlier this week.  Now the line has dropped to a solid -3 as of Thursday morning and our computer math model forecasts a solid home win here and we won't hesitate to get involved.  Georgia State has played only 2 games this season.  With Arkansas State having 4 games under their belt the Red Wolves actually hold an edge even though they are on short rest here.  In this pandemic-impacted season teams with more practices, more game time, etc. have an edge and that applies to the Red Wolves in this one.  Not only that, Arkansas State had won 5 straight meetings before Georgia State won last year's game at home.  That was the 2nd straight game in which the home team won by a double digit margin and that is the forecast here per our computer math modeling - Red Wolves by 10+ points!  As a home favorite in SBC action, Arkansas State is on a 15-4 ATS run.  The Red Wolves are averaging 343 passing yards per game and the Panthers run game (lost some key personnel from last season) won't be able to trade scores with them in this one as they just can't keep up.  Lay the points with Arkansas State in what should be a home blowout in evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #170

Both teams are undefeated on the season but Louisiana has played the tougher schedule.  While UL-Lafayette defeated Iowa State by a 17-point margin, Coastal Carolina played Kansas from the Big 12.  The Cyclones are projected to be one of the better teams in the Big 12 this season (and went to a bowl last year and faced Notre Dame) while the Jayhawks are off a 3-9 season and have been struggling annually for many years.  Additionally, the Ragin' Cajuns' other two games were against fellow Sun Belt foes while only 1 of Coastal Carolina's other two games were.  The other one was against an FCS school!  Again, big difference in strength of schedule between these two undefeated teams.  Additionally, one could argue that Coastal Carolina has revenge here from last year's 48-7 beating at the hands of the Cajuns.  However, Louisiana did lose the prior season's match-up when these teams met at Lafayette and a little home loss revenge is on order here.  Coming into this season the Ragin' Cajuns were projected to be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt while Coastal Carolina was projected to be one of the worst.  The Chanticleers offense has surprised early this season but this will be a tough test for them here and the Ragin' Cajuns do have the better defense.  Louisiana has allowed 18 points or less in 2 of their 3 games and that is despite facing the tougher schedule.  We are aware of UL-Lafayette having some injury issues and Covid-related issues but those are still not enough to justify the low number posted on this game.  Per our computer math model, the Ragin' Cajuns win this one by at least a 2 TD margin.  Lay the points with UL-Lafayette in what should be a home blowout in evening action

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 6:05 PM ET

The Braves pounded out 10 hits yesterday but 7 of them came from Freeman, Markakis, and Albies. Why does that matter? We are aware that Albies has had amazing success in his 4 at bats versus lefties in this post-season but he is a switch-hitter that hit only .214 against lefties in the regular season. As for Freeman and Markakis, they are both left-handed batters. The starter for the Dodgers this evening is Julio Urias and the southpaw held lefties to a .137 batting average in the regular season this year and a .198 batting average in the 2019 regular season. Urias is also a guy with a lot of post-season experience and he was great against the Braves in the regular season last year. In terms of post-season experience, Urias is now 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last 18 innings spanning the last 3 playoff years combined! He rates a huge edge over the Braves Kyle Wright in this one. Yes, Wright was successful in his first-ever playoff start but it came against the Marlins in the divisional round. Wright was in major trouble in the early innings but managed to escape the jams each time. He gave up a lot of hard-hit outs. Not only did Wright benefit from some luck and some solid defense, his Braves teammates then staked him to an early big lead and it is much easier to pitch when you have a 4-run (or more!) lead for sure. That said, Wright will quickly be brought back down to earth by this Dodgers lineup that nearly rallied for the huge comeback win against the Braves bullpen late in yesterday's game. Do not lose sight of the fact that Wright is 2-7 with a 6.22 ERA in his MLB career and that includes his 19 regular season appearances (12 starts). This is a very tough spot for him and it is why the Dodgers are such a big money line favorite here as they look to respond in this 0-2 series hole! Look for them to do just that and, per our computer math model, Los Angeles wins this one by multiple runs and the value play (-120 range) is with laying the 1.5 runs on the run line in this one. The Dodgers haven't lost 3 straight games since August of 2019! Since that time LA has gone 5-0 when entering a game on a losing streak of 2 games and only 1 of the 5 wins came by less than a 2-run margin. In fact, the Dodgers 43 wins this year in the regular season featured 36 (or 84%) by a margin of 2 or more runs! They have continued that 80% trend in the post-season as 4 of their 5 wins have come by at least 2 runs in these playoffs. For the Braves, 19 of their 25 losses (76%) in the regular season came by 2 or more runs. Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday.

#477 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON LA Chargers +8 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re still not sold on this Saints team being one of the best in the NFL.  Especially with their current injury concerns at WR, DB, and on the offensive line.  Their wins have come against Tampa, where they were outgained but benefitted from 3 Buc turnovers including a pick 6, and Detroit.  Their game last week @ Detroit they fell down 14-0, came back to take a lead and barely held on 35-29.  Offensively the Saints were only able to put up 5.7 YPP last week vs a Detroit defense that has allowed 6.2 YPP this season.  We think, because they have a 1-3 record, the Chargers are a bit undervalued right now.  They’ve lost 3 straight games that have gone to the wire.  They played KC as tough as anyone over the last year as they led the entire game but lost in OT.  Last week they led Tampa on the road 24-7 but Brady pulled his comeback magic and rallied the Bucs for a win.  Starting QB Herbert has been very impressive to date with a completion rate of 72% while averaging over 300 YPG passing.  The Bolts have held leads in the 4th quarter in 3 of their 4 games this year and their defense has been solid holding 3 of their 4 opponents to 23 points or less including limiting KC to 20 points in regulation.  This is a tough team to pull away from and we expect a tight game.  The Chargers are a money making 12-4-3 ATS their last 19 non-division road games under head coach Anthony Lynn.  The Saints have covered just 4 of their last 14 games as a home favorite.  Undervalued vs Overvalued here.  Take the points. 

#475 ASA PLAY 8* ON Minnesota +7 over Seattle, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - We like what we saw from Minnesota last week.  They were in a terrible spot and came out and played hard and picked up a win @ Houston.  That showed us that despite their 1-3 record, they are still engaged.  The Vikes were coming off a game in which they led the Titans for much of the game but lost 31-30 on a late FG.  After that devastating loss they were then locked out of their facility until Thursday of that week due to the Titans COVID outbreak.  So almost no practice for Minnesota heading into their game @ Houston.  Their 31-23 win was impressive as they posted over 400 yards including 162 on the ground.  They have now scored 30+ points in every game except @ Indy who currently has the top defense in the NFL.  They will be able to move the ball here vs a Seattle defense that ranks dead last in total defense and dead last in passing defense.  It’s really tough to keep winning games with a defense like that.  The Seahawks are 4-0 but 3 of their games have come down to the wire with margins of 5, 7, 8 points.  The trailed Dallas at home with under 2:00 minutes remaining and held New England at the 1 yard line as time expired when a Pats TD would have won the game for them.  The Hawks are getting outgained by 60 YPG and shouldn’t be laying a full TD in this spot.  Minnesota’s offense can keep up here and we envision another Seattle game that is in doubt in the final minutes.  Take the points.

#466 ASA PLAY 8* ON Pittsburgh -7 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Pittsburgh is rested and healthy coming off an unplanned bye last week with their game @ Tennessee getting cancelled. Philly is the opposite. The Eagles are as banged up as any team in the NFL. They have cluster injuries on the offensive line, in the defensive backfield and at WR. If there is one position you do not want to have injuries when facing Pittsburgh, it would be the O Line. The Steelers defense is fantastic as a whole, but their best strength would be getting to the QB. They rank #1 in the NFL in sacks per game (5) and sack percentage (12.3%). It’s definitely not a fluke as they led the league in both categories last year as well. They face an injured Philly line that has allowed 3.5 sacks per game which is 30th in the NFL. While Pittsburgh had a bye, the Eagles picked up their first win last week @ SF in upset fashion as they were 8.5 point underdogs. However, if there is a team that is as banged up as Philly, it’s San Fran. They went with QB Mullens with Garoppolo on the shelf. He played so poorly (threw 2 picks) the Niners had to bring in 3rd string Beathard to try and jumpstart the offense. While the Eagles picked up the 25-20 win, their first of the season, they were dominated in the stats. The 49ers rolled up 417 total yards on 6.0 YPP while holding Philadelphia to 267 yards on just 4.5 YPP. Turnovers were the difference as the Niners had 3 - one pick 6, an int at the Philly 14, and a fumble that led to Eagle TD. The fact is the Eagle offense has been bad this year. They are averaging 4.5 YPP on the season which is THE WORST in the NFL. Now they are on the road for the 2nd straight week facing one of the top stop units in the NFL. Pittsburgh ranks #1 in rush defense allowing only 54 YPG, #2 in total defense, and #5 in scoring defense. Philly won’t be able to run the ball here making them one dimensional. That’s a recipe for disaster vs Pitt’s ferocious pass rush. Wentz will be under constant pressure in this game. Offensively the 3-0 Steelers have scored at least 26 points in all 3 games this season. That’s probably all it will take here as we don’t see Philly getting out of the teens in this game. Lay it with the Steelers.

#358 ASA PLAY 8* ON Western Kentucky +7 over Marshall, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET At 11 AM Pacific Time on Sunday, one of the first sportsbooks in Vegas to put out numbers on this Saturday college football card hung a -2 on Marshall. The Thundering Herd were quickly bet up to a -6.5 within the first 24 hours at that sportsbook and now are up to a full -7 across the board as of Friday (a few are at +7.5). We like to look for spots like this when fading over-valued road favorites and won't hesitate to step in big on this one. The Hilltoppers have covered 6 straight match-ups with the Thundering Herd. Even though Marshall has won each of the last 3 meetings straight up, all 3 victories came by 7 or less points and this one will too per our computer math modeling. The Hilltoppers haven't forgotten last season's game in which they led 23-7 in the 3rd quarter but ended up losing the game when Marshall made a 51 yard field goal on the final play of the game! The Thundering Herd haven't played in 3 weeks and that was an outright upset of Appalachian State. We like fading teams off outright wins as dogs and plus Marshall has had a little too much time between games and will also be playing their first road game of this season. The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, are playing their 4th game in 5 weeks but had a bye two weeks ago. WKU also enters this game off their first win of the season but it was a non-covering win. Perfect spot to back the Toppers here as they also want to atone for losing their only home game so far this season in a disappointing performance as a host to Liberty. The Hilltoppers did return a lot of experience from last season's team and last week's win at Middle Tennessee is a confidence booster for this team. Western Kentucky coach Helton has covered 6 of the last 8 times he has been an underdog and five of those were outright upset wins! Marshall has failed to cover 22 of the last 32 times they have been a favorite. Considering the above factors, and the line movement to a full +7, we're happy to bet the revenge-minded dog in this one. This one has the makings of a home upset and we're grabbing the points with Western Kentucky

#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Auburn -13.5 over Arkansas, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

Well Arkansas finally did it.  They broke their 20 game SEC losing streak last week by upsetting Mississippi State 21-14 as a 16.5 point underdog.  A couple of quick points about that game.  First of all, they caught MSU off a monumental upset @ LSU so no doubt the Bulldogs weren’t completely focused on the Razorbacks who last won an SEC game in 2017 and that win was by just 1 point!  Secondly, Arkansas was very fortunate to win last week as they were dominated in the stat sheet.  The Bulldogs were +7 first downs and outgained the Razors 400 to 275.  The problem for MSU was their FOUR turnovers.  The first one set the tone for the upset as Arky returned a pick 6 just a few minutes into the game to take a 7-0 lead.  Not only did the Dogs cough it up 4 times, they were also shut out on downs twice deep inside Arkansas territory at the 13 & 7 yard line.  The Dogs also lost their top RB Hill (1350 yards last year) in the first quarter to an injury.  Needless to say, a lot of things had to fall into place for Arky to pick up their first win in conference play in nearly 3 years and that’s exactly what happened.  Now they are on the road again this week facing an extra motivated Auburn team.  That’s because after beating a very solid Kentucky team here in week 1 by a final of 29-13, they were dominated @ Georgia last week.  They went into the game as a 7.5 point dog and felt they could pull the upset.  Didn’t happen as the Dawgs pushed them around which we look at as a wake up call for the Tigers.  After the game Auburn head coach Malzahn stated, “We really got whipped in all 3 phases.  We got outcoached.”  We’re pretty sure this Auburn team will be more than ready this week.  You can also count on them trying to put as many points on the board as possible.  We don’t think there will be any backing off with a lead here coming off a loss and the fact that Auburn’s new OC Morris was the head coach at Arkansas last year and got canned.  He’ll be motivated as well.  This situation looks very similar to the last few seasons when Auburn was coming off a tough loss and pasted Arkansas the following week.  Last year the Tigers lost at Florida and then beat the Razorbacks 51-10 just one week later.  In 2018, they were coming off a tight 1-point loss vs LSU and proceeded to pound Arkansas 34-3 the following Saturday.  The Razors are happy to be 1-1 but their offense will have big problems here vs a top notch Auburn defense.  Arkansas currently averages just 277 YPG which ranks 70th out of 74 current teams playing & 15.5 PPG which includes last week’s pick 6.  If you take that away, the offense has scored just 24 points in 2 games this year.  We love the value here as well.  We have this game power rated at Auburn -17.5.  We could argue it should be even higher.  These teams both played UGA and Arkansas was +27.5 at home while Auburn was +7.5 on the road.  Just based on that alone, with no home field factored in whatsoever, it tells us Auburn should be a 20 point favorite on a neutral field.  The weather calls for some rain, however the winds shouldn’t be bad at 10-12 MPH.  We like Auburn to roll up a big home win on Saturday and getting this under 2 TD’s is a steal.

#311 ASA PLAY 8* ON Pittsburgh -6 over Boston College, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

Pitt should be in an angry mood here after losing at home to NC State as a 14 point favorite.  Looking at the stat sheet, you’d have no idea how Pitt lost that game.  The Panthers rolled up over 500 total yards and held the Wolfpack to 398.  NC State scored a TD with just 23 seconds remaining in the game to pull the 30-29 upset.  Pitt’s defense is outstanding.  They rank #3 nationally in total defense allowing just 232 YPG.  Their rush defense is a brick wall as they’ve allowed just 57 YPG on the ground through their first 4 games, good for 2nd nationally.  Now they are facing a BC team that has been predominantly a running team over the last few years but this season they are only putting up 70 YPG on the ground which ranks them 71st out of 74 teams currently playing.  In other words, the Eagles will most likely be one dimensional here with very little success on the ground.  That’s never good for an offense.   BC comes in with a 2-1 record but they are fortunate to be in that situation.  They upset Duke in their first game thanks to the Blue Devils 5 turnovers.  Duke has also gone on to lose every game this season (0-4 record) so that win might not be all that impressive in hindsight.  BC then played host to Texas State and the Eagles barely squeaked out a 24-21 win as a 17 point favorite.  TSU actually outgained the Eagles in that game and led 21-7 late in the 3rd quarter before BC scored the final 17 points including the game winning FG with just 3 seconds remaining.  Last week BC was all in at home vs a very solid, and ranked, UNC team.  The Eagles trailed the entire game yet scored with under 1:00 minute remaining to pull them within 2.  A failed 2 point conversion gave them the loss.  That game took a lot out of this team both physically and mentally and this week could be tough for BC.  The Panthers are also 2-1 after last week’s loss but they are outgaining their opponents 419 to 232.  BC, on the other hand, is getting outgained on the season 345 to 370.  BC also upset Pitt on the road last year as a 9-point dog giving the Panthers even more motivation here.  We like the better team, who should be very motivated, that is better on both sides of the ball in this game.  Laying less than a TD is solid value here.

ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat +7.5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET

The Heat got back into this series with a win in Game 3 and we feel that confidence carries over to another extremely competitive game here. The Heat got a monster game out of Jimmy Butler who scored 40-points, grabbed 11 rebounds, and handed out 13 assists. Another key factor to the wins was the balanced scoring by the entire Heat team, which has been a staple in this postseason. Miami had five players score in double-digits including Kelly Olynyk (17) who has given them another viable scoring option. If we use the full season as a baseline, we know the Lakers were a below average 3-point shooting team (ranked 21st) at 35%. In Game 3 we saw the Lakers hit just 33% of their 3-point attempts and shoot a more average overall 43% from the field. That was a better indicator of what they should shoot, and it resulted in a much closer game with the Heat making more plays down the stretch. The Lakers are not a great team as a favorite in this price range at 6-4 ATS nor is their 14-8 SU record off a loss overwhelming. In fact, the Lakers average win margin off a loss this season is just +2.6PPG which isn’t enough to get a cover in this game. The Heat may get some help and add to their depth with Bam Adebayo or Dragic back for this game. Both are listed as questionable, but it sounds likely they’ll have Bam. There is a reason that Vegas has dropped this line 2-points compared to the last game and yet money and tickets are coming in on L.A. Bet the Heat in a close win or loss.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 2:08 PM ET

Give the Marlins credit for getting by a Cubs team struggling at the plate but now they face a tough Braves team.  Lets not forget that Miami started this season 7-1.  That means they went 24-28 the rest of the way in the regular season.  Of course that is a big reason the Braves are a -200 favorite on the money line in this game.  Where we get the value in Game One of this series is by grabbing Atlanta on the run line.  We'll lay the -1.5 runs to get the plus money return (currently +105) in this one.  Note that the Marlins 29 regular season losses this year featured 21 by 2 or more runs.  The Braves 35 wins featured 24 by  2 or more runs.  The point is that the vast majority of wins for the Braves and losses for the Marlins came by a multi-run margin.  The Braves have the better lineup, the better bullpen and now let us take a look at the starting pitchers in this one.  Fried for Atlanta against Alcantara for Miami.  Alcantara compiled a 5.40 ERA in his day game starts this season and this is a pitcher that amassed a 6-14 record in 2019.  The Braves Fried has much more post-season experience in comparison with Alcantara and also he is a combined 24-6 the past two seasons.  Fried went 17-6 last season and he is 7-0 this season with a 2.25 ERA.  Per our computer math model this one is a blowout win for the favorite.  Bet the Atlanta Braves -1.5 runs in early afternoon action Tuesday.

ASA top play 10* on: Atlanta Falcons +7 over Green Bay Packers, Monday 8:50PM ET We understand you are going to have a hard time betting against the 3-0 Packers and betting on 0-3 Atlanta but that’s why they make pointspreads. The Packers have played nearly flawless offense in their start to the season which cannot last forever based on the Law of Averages. Atlanta has blown two 15+ point leads in their last two games (in the 4th quarter) and lost both games to fall to 0-3. Are the Packers and Falcons as good/bad as their records? No, we do not think so. If we turned back the clock and it was week 1 this line might be Packers favored by 4-points at best, so value clearly lies with Atlanta. The Packers were 7-point favorites at home against the Lions who are not as good as this Falcons team. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense has been incredible, but the Falcons O is not far behind. The Packers average 460YPG, Atlanta 419YPG, Green Bay 40.7PP and Atlanta 30PPG. Atlanta has allowed 36PPG (most coming late in games) which is 31st in the NFL but the Packers are not much better allowing 28.3PPG and 6.6 yards per play which is 31st in the league. Atlanta has veteran-laden team with a particularly good road record and 5 straight covers away from home. The Falcons are 8-9 ATS their last seventeen as a dog but their loss margin is just minus -3.4PPG. Conversely, the Packers are 13-10 their last twenty-three as a favorite with a win margin of +4.6PPG. Those two differentials are obviously enough for an Atlanta Falcons cover. Grab the points.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Las Vegas Raiders +3 over Buffalo Bills - This one sets up very nicely for the home team. The Raiders are coming off a loss last week @ New England (we were on the Pats!) but the situation was not ideal for them in that game. The Raiders were coming off a big home opening win over the Saints which was the inaugural game at Allegiant Stadium in Vegas. They then had to travel on the short week as the win over the Saints was on a Monday night. It was also their 2nd trip to the east coast in their first 3 weeks. New England was coming off a tight loss @ Seattle and the Pats have been fantastic under Belichick off a SU loss (now 35-13 ATS). It turned into a 36-20 win for the Patriots which we expected. There were some bright spots for the Raiders as they averaged 6.7 YPP but were limited to just 56 offensive snaps partly due to 3 key turnovers. We feel the roles are reversed for this game. It’s Buffalo coming off a big win and now having to travel. Buffalo is 3-0 on the season but they played 2 division rivals who have a combined 1-5 record (Jets & Fins) and then last week played host to the Rams. Last Sunday they jumped out to a 28-3 lead only to see LA scored 29 consecutive points and take a 32-28 lead late in the game. The Raiders scored a TD with 15 seconds left to pick up the 35-32 win and a game like that can take a lot out of a team physically and emotionally. The Bills were also outgained by over 100 yards in the game so they were a bit fortunate to get that win. Now traveling to Las Vegas will be a tough spot for this team against a Raider team that will be hungry for a win after losing last Sunday. Buffalo simply isn’t all the used to being a road favorite and this particular situation has not been good to them. Since 1994, the Bills have been a road favorite after a SU home win just 19 times and have covered only 6 of those games (just 31%). They have been in that spot once already this year and almost lost @ Miami (non-cover) after beating the Jets at home. We like the Raiders to give Buffalo their first loss of the season so we’ll take the points here.

#252 ASA PLAY 8* ON Chicago +3 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We were on Atlanta over Chicago last week and things looked great with the Birds leading by 16 with less than 8:00 remaining in the game.  Bears head coach made the decision to switch QB’s during the game as Trubisky was play terrible as we felt he would.  The move to Nick Foles helped do us in as he led Chicago to 3 straight TD drives all in the span of 5:00 minutes giving the Bears a 30-26 win.  Foles will be starting this week and we now like the Bears in this home underdog spot.  We make much of Chicago’s weak 3-0 record as the teams they’ve beaten are now 1-8 combined.  However, is Indy’s 2-1 mark any better?  The teams they’ve played are now 1-8 combined and their only road game was a loss @ Jacksonville who is 0-2 since that win including a thrashing at the hands of the Dolphins.  We’re not sure why the Colts are favored here.  We have Chicago as a 1 point chalk in our power ratings.  Indy’s defense looks fantastic thus far as they lead the NFL in YPG allowed however we feel that stat is misleading.  Two of the teams they’ve faced, Jacksonville & NY Jets, rank near the bottom in total offense (Jets are at the bottom).  Last year Indy finished 16th in total defense so a jump to #1 could be a bit of a mirage.  Chicago’s defense ranks in the middle of the pack right now but we feel as things play out we’ll see their defense is better than the Colts.  Two of the three teams Chicago has played have top tier QB’s and fairly explosive offenses (Falcons & Lions).  We also like the Bears offense much better with Foles at QB.  Chicago has been a home dog 16 times since the start of the 2016 season and they are 12-3-1 ATS in those games.  On top of that, 3-0 teams playing at home in game 4 are 33-15-1 ATS (41-8 SU record) if playing a team outside their division.  Take the Bears here.

#260 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas -4.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is a huge game for the Cowboys.  They cannot afford to drop to 1-3.  They’ve faced a fairly tough slate having to go on the road to LA Rams and Seattle while facing Atlanta at home whose much better than their 0-3 record.  Last week they led Seattle on the road 31-30 with under 2:00 remaining when Russell Wilson pulled more of his magic to pick up a win.  Dallas outgained Seattle by over 100 yards in that game and averaged 6.5 YPP in the process.  A week prior they outgained the potent Atlanta offense by nearly 200 yards despite having to come from behind to win that one.  The Boys have a +0.8 YPP differential which is not indicative of a team that currently has a losing record.  Meanwhile Cleveland is off 2 home wins and could step into this one a bit fat and happy as we like to say.  However, those wins came at the hands of 2 of the worst teams in the NFL, Cincinnati and Washington and neither were all that easy.  They held on to beat Cincinnati 35-30 and last week vs Washington they Browns trailed entering the 4th quarter before scoring 3 straight TD’s to pull away.  Cleveland is now 0-7 both SU & ATS their last 7 road games losing by an average of 18 PPG.  Going back even further, since November of 2014 the Browns are just 5-39 SU on the road and 17-27 ATS in those games.  This is a much bigger game for Dallas and we’ll lay the points.

#253 ASA PLAY 8* ON New Orleans Saints -3 over Detroit Lions – Sunday at 1PM ET

Let’s look inside the numbers here and break down this game from the inside and see what we find. Detroit is coming off a respectable win in Arizona, while the Saints are off back-to-back losses to the Raiders and Packers. Against Green Bay last week, the Saints were favored by -3.5-points and lost by a TD. The Saints had more rushing and passing yards in the game, but Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers were too much in the 4th quarter. The week before that, the Saints lost to a highly motivated Raiders team in their home opener. New Orleans was one of the favorites to come out of the NFC this year and are in a desperate 1-2 right now with a negative differential of -2PPG. The Lions are also 1-2 and their win last week was somewhat misleading as the Cardinals had more first downs, more rushing and passing yards but QB Murray threw three INT’s which swung the momentum in Detroit’s favor. The Lions two losses came to a slightly overrated Bears team and a blowout loss to Green Bay. The Saints played close to Green Bay yet the Packers beat them handily with +7 first downs, +170 rushing yards and plus nearly 9 full minutes of time of possession. Detroit, like New Orleans is also 1-2 but their differential is minus -7.9PPG which is 26th worst in the NFL. There is not home field advantage here and the Lions are 5-12 SU their last seventeen at home with an average loss margin of minus -6.3PPG. The Saints on the other hand are 14-3 SU their last seventeen away with a margin of victory of +8.6PPG. This is a great opportunity to play on a good team off a loss and a bad team off an upset win.

#123 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Oklahoma -7 over Iowa State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We are well aware that recent meetings between these teams have been close games.  However, this line was in the double digit range and has dropped to a -7 and we feel we have exceptional line value here with Oklahoma primed for a blowout win.  Last season's match-up between these teams was decided by a single point but the Sooners led that game 42-21 late and they won't make the same mistake this season.  Yes, the Sooners are off an upset loss to Kansas State but OU had a 4-0 turnover deficit in the game.  The Sooners actually had 28 first downs compared to only 10 for the Wildcats and yet they lost the game outright.  This is helping to give us great line value this week with Oklahoma.  The Sooners piled up 517 yards of offense in that game and now take on an Iowa State team that just allowed 499 yards at TCU last week.  The Cyclones tight win over the Horned Frogs had a lot to do with a 2-1 turnover edge and the Frogs had 10 penalties compared to just 3 for Iowa State.  The Cyclones also lost their season opener to UL Lafayette by 17 points.  In that game they barely eclipsed the 300 yard mark in terms of total offense.  The fact is that highly regarded Cyclones QB Brock Purdy hasn't been overly impressive so far this season as his completion percentage is down from the 2 prior seasons and he has thrown for an average of just 178 yards per game.  Keep in mind last season Purdy threw for nearly 4,000 yards.  The Cyclones simply won't be able to score enough here to keep up with an angry Sooners team that has a dangerous offensive attack and won't be able to be stopped in this one.  Lay it!  This will be a road rout for Oklahoma

#132 ASA PLAY 8* ON Air Force +7 over Navy, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Though it was only recently announced that the Mountain West Conference would have a season, it was already determined many weeks ago that Air Force would at least play the other service academies (Navy and Army) this season. In other words, the Falcons have already been preparing to face Navy for many weeks now. What have the Midshipmen been doing? They have been busy prepping for teams like BYU and Tulane as those were their first two opponents. Give the Midshipmen credit for rallying in the 2nd half for the win over the Green Wave two weeks ago. However, lets not forget that up until that point Navy was outscored 79-3 in their first 6 quarters of football this season. Tulane essentially gift-wrapped the 2nd half comeback for the Midshipmen and this Navy team is not nearly the team it was last season. Keep in mind, prior to last season's 11-2 record, Navy was 3-10 the previous season. We're not sold on the Midshipmen this season and we like Air Force getting a full TD here as a home dog. Home field has meant a lot in this rivalry match-up and the Falcons enter this game on a 8-game winning streak. Yes, Air Force has lost a lot of personnel from last season's team but this is not that unusual for a service academy football team. They are use to major turnover of the roster year after year. That said, coach Calhoun and his staff absolutely have this Falcons team ready to go for this season and they've been gearing up for Navy for many weeks now and they know this team very, very well. Air Force knows how to stop the option and, though there are a lot of new faces on the defensive side of the ball, it is all about execution and playing within the system to defend the Navy attack on offense. The Falcons defense will be ready here. On the other side of the ball, other than the QB spot, the Falcons return plenty of experienced personnel and this is a unit that was one of the best in the nation running the ball at 298.5 ypg last year. This line opened up with Air Force at nearly a 3 point favorite and has swung nearly 10 points as the Midshipmen are now a 7 point favorite in this one. This is because of all the roster news surrounding the Falcons including QB Hammond losing his cadet status. The result, in our opinion, is exceptional line value on the home dog Falcons in this one. They match up so well with Navy, they have dominated this series at home in recent years, and they also got a big emotional boost with the recent announcement that there would be a Mountain West season. Already fully prepping for Navy, now the Falcons also ride a wave of emotion as their season schedule just went from 2 games to 10 games and these guys can't wait to take the field against one of their service academy rivals. We expect another home win for the Falcons in this rivalry so of course we feel very comfortable here with grabbing the points here with Air Force!

#115 ASA PLAY 8* ON Missouri +13 over Tennessee, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Missouri opened up the season with a loss but it was to be expected as they played Alabama last week. The Tigers defense showed great improvement last season and even though Missouri has a new head coach (Drinkwitz) this season, they have the same defensive coordinator (Walters). Last year the Tigers allowed only 19.4 points per game and their pass defense (179.3 ypg) ranked among the best in the nation. We like double digit dogs that are solid defensively and Missouri certainly fits the bill in that regard. Also, the fact they had to begin their season with a very tough match-up against the Crimson Tide means the Tigers will be well-prepared to face anything the Volunteers throw at them here. Missouri catches Tennessee off a 4-point win over South Carolina. The Vols barely snuck by the Gamecocks thanks in part to a 2-0 edge in turnovers as the yardage and first downs in that game were very close to equal. That said, we feel this is far too many points for the Volunteers to be laying here and, in fact, Tennessee only has 3 ATS covers the last dozen times they have been a home favorite! These teams met last season in Game 11 and with each team sitting at 5-5 on the year. The Vols won that game and it made them bowl eligible as they went on to a 8-5 season (including 1 point win in bowl game versus Indiana). The Tigers home loss to the Volunteers cost them a winning season and there was no bowl for Missouri. Though they may not get full payback here in the form of an outright win, the Tigers will stay within single digits in this game per our computer math modeling. Look for a very tight game likely decided by a single score margin. Grab the points with Missouri

ASA top play 10* on Miami Heat +5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET Despite the Heat's lower seed to start the Playoffs, it’s evident these two teams are playing the best basketball of all NBA teams and deserving of this Finals entry. Miami and Los Angeles are the top two teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the postseason. The one great equalizer of this year’s bizarre Playoffs has been the neutral floor and we feel that levels the playing field for the young Miami Heat. The intensity, pressure, and atmosphere of playing on the road in Los Angeles is eliminated and gives this Heat team a legitimate shot to win this Championship. Miami will steal a victory in Game 1 for several reasons. The Heat matchup well with L.A. as Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala can all defend LeBron and Bam Adebayo can match up against Anthony Davis. Since 2013, Butler and Crowder have held LeBron to 42.2% shooting and below while Iggy is a notorious LBJ stopper. LeBron is leading all players in assists in the postseason but also in turnovers. Miami has a solid edge offensively with diversity as six players average double-digit scoring, four are scoring over 16.5PPG. On any given night it can be anyone for Miami which is extremely hard to defend. In comparison, the Lakers only have three players averaging 10+ points and rely heavily on LeBron and AD who average 26+. While Playoff Rondo has been great, we’re not really sure where the Lakers can turn to if LeBron and AD are limited while Miami has more scoring options. The Lakers have already lost two Game 1’s in a series and are notorious slow starters. Without the pressure we like the young Heat in Game 1.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5 goals +165) over Dallas Stars, Monday at 8:05 PM ET

We sense a blowout here.  The Lightning are well aware that they let a great opportunity pass them by in Game 5 Saturday when they played too conservatively with a 2-1 lead and went on to lose 3-2 in double overtime. Tampa Bay will be much more aggressive in Game 6 Monday and that means when they get the lead they will keep their foot on the gas and keep expanding that lead throughout the game in our opinion.  Rather than lay the -165 price on the money line (too pricey for our liking) we can flip that to a +165 by taking the Lightning on the puck line.  Yes, that means TB must win the game by more than a 1 goal margin for us to win our bet but with the way they've outplayed the Stars for much of the past four games and considering how Game 5 played out, a Game 6 blowout seems imminent.  Tampa Bay is 6-0 when off a loss in this post-season.  The Bolts last 10 wins have come by an average margin of 2.4 goals per game.  The Stars have 11 losses in this post-season and the average margin of those defeats is 2.3 goals.  8 of the 11 Dallas defeats in the bubble in Edmonton have come by a margin of 2 or more goals.  Prior to a bit of a "miracle win" in Game 5 of this series, the Stars were only 7-7 in their 14 prior games.  You can see from all of the above why we expect the Lightning to win this game and why we expect the victory to be by a big margin.  Dallas has been held to just 1 power play goal in this series while Tampa Bay has scored 6.  Don't be surprised if special teams play a role again Monday as the Lightning win the game big and, in doing so, win Lord Stanley's Cup as well in their second opportunity to close out the series and complete the season with the ultimate prize!  Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting a big plus money return, currently in +165 range) with Tampa Bay is the value play here.

#485 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas +5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’ve seen some solid line value with these week 3 games and this one is no exception.  Our power rating have Dallas as a 3-point dog here so we’re getting at least a few extra points.  The look ahead line on this game was Seattle -3 and -3.5 last week.  Everyone watched Seattle beat New England on Sunday Night (barely) while Dallas was struggling at home vs Atlanta and came out with a miraculous win.  That’s why 70% of the tickets have come in on Seattle here.  The Seahawks are 2-0 but were outgained in both games including getting outyarded 506 to 383 in their season opening win @ Atlanta.  The Falcons made a number of mistakes to allow Seattle to win that game and Russell Wilson was almost perfect with just 4 incomplete passes.  Last week they held New England just short of the goal line as time expired to pick up a 35-30 win.  Now Seattle is a bit overvalued.  Dallas has played 2 down to the wire games losing @ LA Rams by 3 and winning last week by 1.  We expect another very close game here and getting the Cowboys above +4 is great value.  The Boys still have one of the top offenses in the NFL with weapons all over the field.  After leading the NFL in YPP last year, they are currently 5th this season at 6.3 YPP.  They will be able to move the ball and put points on the board here vs a Seattle defense that has allowed 6.7 YPP in their first 2 games, 3rd worst in the league.  Despite their 1-point cover last week in a game they nearly lost, the Seahawks have not been a great home favorite as of late.  Last season they were just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite losing 3 of those games outright.  Dallas wea favored in their first 2 games but has been a very successful 7-2 ATS as a dog dating back to October of 2018.  This one should be close so we grab the points.

#462 ASA PLAY 8* ON New England -6 over Las Vegas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

What a great set up for the Patriots here.  They are coming off a loss last Sunday @ Seattle in a game they had a chance to win but were stopped at the goal line on the final play of the game.  They outgained Seattle 464 to 429 in the game and new QB Cam Newton continue to look impressive.  We’re not a Newton fan by any means and felt he was overrated the last few years because he wasn’t 100% healthy.  He had a bad shoulder and that showed in his performances last season.  However, he now looks completely healthy and has completed over 71% of his passes and is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt (up from 56% and 6.4 YPA last year).  He threw for 397 yards @ Seattle and has rushed for 122 yards on the season.  The “Bradyless” Patriots look much better than we thought they would.  Las Vegas just picked up a HUGE home win in their inaugural game at the brand new Allegiant Stadium.  That win over the Saints pushed this team to 2-0 with their other win coming @ Carolina.  The fact is the Raiders won both games but were destroyed on a YPP basis last week vs the Saints (7.4 to 5.0) but ran 19 more offensive snaps.  The week before vs a Carolina team that many feel is one of the worst in the NFL, Las Vegas needed a TD late in the 4th to pick up the 34-30 win (yardage was about dead even).  Now they head back to the east coast for the 2nd time in 3 weeks while coming off a short week having played on Monday night.  We also expect an angry New England defense that played very well in week 1 at home but not so well last Sunday in Seattle.  That’s not a great match up for a Raider offensive line that is really banged up right now.  They were without 2 starters up front on Monday night and now lost a 3rd with OG Incognito out for this game.  On top of that their has allowed 6.7 YPP though the first 2 games which is almost worst in the NFL.  Belichick has been great off a loss with a 34-13 ATS record and he’s covered over 60% of his games at home.  This one sets up nicely for New England to win by a TD or more.

#470 ASA PLAY 8* ON Minnesota +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Value again.  If this game was played as the season opener in Minnesota, the Vikings would have been a favorite.  Instead, just a few weeks in, they are getting nearly a FG.  This is an absolute must win spot for Minnesota and we expect them to play well.  In fact, teams that start the season 0-2 both SU & ATS are an impressive 56-36 ATS in week 2 dating back to 2003.  That simply speaks to making sure you don’t overreact to one or two weeks in the NFL.  We’re not.  The Titans are 2-0 but won BOTH games on last second FG’s beating Denver by 2 and Jacksonville by 3.  They are only a few plays away from sitting right where Minnesota is with an 0-2 record instead of 2-0.  The Titans are undefeated despite losing the YPP battle in each game.  Minnesota’s offense looked very good in week 1 vs Green Bay putting up nearly 8.0 YPP which was the best in the NFL that week.  Last week they turned the ball over 3 times and averaged just 3.7 YPP at Indy.  They were +3 in that game @ Indianapolis and now they are basically the same at home vs Tennessee.  Their offense should look much better this week back in the US Bank dome.  Defensively they’ve looked poor but we anticipate head coach Mike Zimmer, one of the top defensive minds in the NFL, to have them ready at home in this must win spot.  Zimmer has been fantastic when playing at home off a SU loss with a PERFECT 11-0 ATS mark his last 11 in that situation.  The Vikings have also been a money machine covering almost 70% of their home games over 5+ seasons with a 37-17-1 spread mark.  We like Minnesota to get over the hump and win a tight one here so we’ll take the points.

#476 ASA PLAY 8* ON Atlanta -3 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We’re not high on Chicago this year and the fact they started the season 2-0 is a bit fraudulent we feel.  They’ve beaten 2 teams that are currently 0-4 combined (Giants & Lions) and they’ve struggled to do so.  They trailed 23-6 @ Detroit entering the 4th quarter and miraculously won with 3 fourth quarter TD’s vs a banged up Lion defense.  Last week they played host to the Giants and held on for dear life winning 17-13 vs a team that lost starting RB Barkley and WR Shepard during the game.  Even with that, the Giants were on the Chicago 10-yard line with a chance to win as time expired.  The Bears were outgained in those 2 games by a combined 721 to 667 and on a YPP basis as well (5.4 to 5.1).  The Falcons have started the season 0-2 and this now becomes a must win for this team.  Just as we feel the Bears 2-0 start is a bit of a farse, we also look at the winless Falcons as much better than their record.  Chicago has played 2 bottom feeders this year as we mentioned, while Atlanta had faced Seattle & Dallas and could have won either.  Last week’s loss at Dallas was a tough one and we all know about the botched onside kick situation at the end of the game which led to the Cowboys winning in a game they never led until that point.  A week earlier Atlanta lost to Seattle but outgained the 2-0 Seahawks by 506 to 383 but were shut out on downs 4 times (0 for 4 on fourth down) and had 2 key turnovers.  Atlanta looks like they are one of the better offenses in the NFL already averaging 6.0 YPP and Chicago will have trouble keeping up here with their offense which we feel is one of the worst in the NFL.  Defensively the Falcons have struggled but let’s remember they’ve faced 2 of the top offenses in the NFL (Dallas & Seattle) and Chicago is nowhere near that level.  We think they’ll look much better on that side of the ball on Sunday.  The Bears have covered just 3 of their last 14 games dating back to last year and just 1 of their last 7 road games.  Teams that start the season 0-2 SU are a money making 33-16 ATS in their 3rd game of the year dating back to 2014.  During that same span, teams that start 2-0 SU are 21-26 ATS in their 3rd game and both fall in line with this game.  This is a terrible spot for an overvalued team coming into Atlanta.  Lay this small number as the Falcons roll.

ASA top play 10* on Denver Nuggets +5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET

If any team in the Bubble can pull of a dramatic come from behind series win it’s the “Cardiac Kids” from Denver. The Nuggets have already survived 3-1 deficits in the playoffs and one of those came against the Clippers who were favored to win it all. If a few bounces of the ball or calls by the officials had gone the other way in this series, it could very likely be 3-1 in Denver’s favor. That’s a testament to just how well they’ve played the Lakers in this series. Anthony Davis have been by far and away the best Laker in the playoffs as he leads them in scoring, rebounding and blocks but he did tweak an ankle in the last game, and despite finishing the game, looked a little gimpy afterwards. If AD isn’t 100% the Lakers don’t have the depth to overcome his loss. The Nuggets MUST get some contributions on the offensive end from someone other than Jokic and Murray and Michael Porter Jr. is that guy. In Game 4 Porter Jr. scored 13 points on 5 of 8 shooting in just 20 minutes. Yes, he’s a liability on defense but coach Malone has to live with that for the trade off of instant scoring. Denver is a respectable 23-12 SU off a loss this season and have won those games by an average of +3PPG. The Nuggets extend this series with an outright win on Saturday. (Small bet on the moneyline too)

#406 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON South Carolina +4 over Tennessee, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Tennessee comes into this game with a lot of high expectations placed on them coming into the season. The Volunteers, including their 1-point win in the Gator Bowl over Indiana, have won 6 straight games and are ranked 16th in the nation entering this contest. That 6-game winning streak started with a big home win over South Carolina last season. However, South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp entered that contest having beaten Tennessee 7 straight times and that sets up this home dog revenge situation perfectly for the Gamecocks. South Carolina is flying under the radar a bit early this season because they are known for solid, physical defensive play but Muschamp's teams also are known for struggling to put many points on the board. That should change this season. We like the fact that new offensive coordinator, Mike Bobo (former head coach at Colorado State) has former Rams QB Collin Hill to work with. He is a graduate transfer and won the starting job from Ryan Hilinski. Of course Hill knows Bobo's offense well and that will allow the Gamecocks revamped offense to hit the ground running with Bobo's play-calling and Hill's leadership as a veteran with experience in this offense. Hill's college career started in 2016 at Colorado State so he has a lot of experience under his belt! Last year's match-up between these teams saw the Gamecocks lead 21-17 at the half but they were on the road at Tennessee and playing with an anemic offense and watched the Volunteers outscore them 24-0 the rest of the way. This match-up will play out much differently. Of course the ranked (and hyped) Vols are attracting attention from the marketplace but they also have had issues leading up to this game because of covid-19 cases. This has resulted in Tennessee not being able to have consistently scheduled practices. Now they go on the road playing right into the teeth of revenge and there is a very positive atmosphere right now in South Carolina as the team seems rejuvenated with the change at offensive coordinator. The Gamecocks also have stability on the other side of the ball with Travaris Robinson continuing as the defensive coordinator - a role he was hired for in December 2015 - and he has plenty of experience working with Muschamp. Upset alert in this one! We like South Carolina plus the points here.

#451 ASA 8* PLAY ON Texas State +18 over Boston College, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - Anytime we look at a large underdog in college football, we like to have a team that can score points. That way they are always in the game, even if they get down big the back door is open. That’s what we have here. Texas State can score points. They are playing their 4th game of the season here vs BC and this team is averaging 37 PPG on 431 YPG and 6.1 YPP. They have 2 very solid QB’s in McBride and Vitt who’ve both played key roles already this year. McBride has been out due to Covid issues but could be back here. If not, Vitt has thrown for over 600 yards and put up 86 points in his 2 starts this year. Texas State played a very good SMU team to open the season and gave them a scare almost pulling the upset before losing 31-24. This offense is definitely capable of hanging in this game. While TSU is playing their 4th game of the season, this will be BC’s 2nd game. They upset Duke last week 26-6 so coming off a huge ACC win we’d expect a bit of a ho-hum performance here from the Eagles. On top of that, this BC team has a big ACC game on deck as they host North Carolina next Saturday. The Eagles win last week over Duke was a bit deceiving. The Devils were their own worst enemy with a number of mistakes that left points off the board. Duke was picked off at the BC 19 yard line, fumbled at the BC 4 yard line, fumbled at their own 12 yard line, fumbled at the BC 14 yard line, threw a pick at the BC 33 yard line, AND missed a FG. As you can see, the 20-point win by Boston College was not as it may have looked. The Eagles lost their battering Ram RB Dillon to the NFL (1,685 YR last year) and had only 84 yards rushing on 2 YPC last week. That’s a red flag for a team that has been a physical, run the ball team, over the last few seasons. This is also a spot the Eagles are simply not used to and that is laying a lot of points. The last time they were laying 17 points or more was back in 2018 and that was vs FCS Holy Cross. Just a bad spot for BC and playing in front of zero fans at home. We’ll grab the points here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Friday 8:30PM ET It’s do-or-die time for Boston and we feel they respond with a double-digit win in this elimination game. Has Miami beaten Boston or have the Celtics beaten themselves? The Celtics committed 19 turnovers in Game 4 and have averaged 15.75 TO’s per game in the series. That is uncharacteristic for this team that averaged the 6th fewest TO’s in the league in the regular season at 13.6. The Celtics continue to shoot it well and have been better in the series in their EFG% percentage overall and even in Game 4 when they hit 48% from the field while Miami hit 44%. The difference for the Heat was incredible shooting night by Milwaukee native Tyler Herro. Tyler is going to be a good pro and is a capable scorer when he gets it going as I can attest to first-hand having coached against him numerous times in his youth. Boston will have a defensive answer for him tonight and put the onus on another Heat to pick up the scoring slack. Don’t you find it strange that the team up 3-1 in this series is still an underdog? Boston is a respectable 19-11 SU off a loss and we’ll back them one more time here.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Miami +3 over Jacksonville, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - The Jags have quickly become a public team over the first few weeks with their win over Indy as a 7-point dog and their performance last week @ Tennessee, a 3-point loss. Over 70% of the tickets have come in on Jacksonville here pushing this number from it’s opener, which was pick-em, all they way to -3. Now the value is on Miami in our opinion. The Jaguars have gone from a 7 point dog in week 1 and a 8.5 point dog in week to now to a 3-point favorite. We realize they aren’t playing the Colts or Titans here, but that is still a big swing against a Miami team that showed some life last week losing by just 3 to the surging Bills. They put up over 400 yards on one of the top defensive teams in the NFL so their offense definitely should be able to keep them in this game vs a Jacksonville defense that allowed 33 points last week to a Titan team that put up just 16 points in week 1 @ Denver. Also, in Jacksonville’s win this year vs the Colts, the were outgained by over 200 yards so that was a very misleading win in our opinion. Jax is just 13-24 ATS as a home favorite dating back to 2008 and we simply do not trust them laying a FG here as many suspected this would be one of the worst teams in the league entering the season including us. We’re not going to overreact and change that view after just 2 weeks. Miami + the points for us.

ASA PLAY 8* ON South Alabama Jaguars (+) over UAB Blazers, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #418

This line was as low as a -5 but now has risen to as high as a -7 as of Wednesday evening.  We're going to take advantage of this line rising to the key number of 7 and fade a Blazers team that is dealing with a key injury here.  Even though the injury is to his non-throwing shoulder, starting QB Johnston is expected to be out for this game.  That means redshirt freshman Lucero would be getting his first ever start and it would be on the road.  Keep in mind, South Alabama nearly upset Tulane two weeks ago and that was on the road.  The Jaguars have been a double digit dog in each of their first two games this season and their first game saw them get the outright upset as a big home dog versus Southern Mississippi.  That said, even though UAB is a quality football team and returned a lot of starters this season, the QB situation is a precarious one to say the least and the Jaguars have proven capable of being tough on opponents that are projected to be much better than them.  Per our computer math model, some of the projections have the Jags getting the outright upset and the majority show them staying with less than a TD margin in this one.  With that being the case, the home underdog is the way to go here.  Grab the points with South Alabama in what could be a home upset in evening action Thursday.

ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Game 4 Wednesday 8:30 PM ET

We are going to side with Boston again in this critical Game 4 as a win here gets this series to 2-2 and turns it into the best of three. The Celtics in large part have outplayed the Heat in all three games but didn’t close out the first two games of the series. In Game 1 the Celtics were +12 going into 4th and faltered down the stretch. In Game 2 the Celts were up 13 at half and collapsed in the 3rd quarter. In Game 3 they led coast to coast in a comfortable win. Boston has Shot 50% and 48% last two games and the return of Gordan Hayward certainly helped with the late game rotations. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and have a great straight up record off a loss, but Boston has been the better team for better part of all three games and are still in a desperate situation. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 5-7 ATS record when getting +4.5 or less points. Boston has an edge when it comes to shooting and can match the Heat defensively so we will go with the better team down 1-2 in the series. Lay the points in a close Boston win.

ASA PLAY 8* ON New England +4 over Seattle, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is the first time in 64 games that the Patriots have been an underdog!  You read that correctly.  Now we understand the Pats don’t have Brady under center, however Cam Newton looked pretty solid last week and they still have Belichick in charge.  Another key here is Seattle’s home field advantage, which is easily one of the best in the NFL, is negated with no fans attending the game.  That’s huge in our opinion.  The Pats defense was lights out last year leading the NFL in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and PPG allowed.  They lost a few defensive players off that team but a number of key players are back and they looked very good again last week holding Miami to just 11 points on only 4.6 YPP.  Some may say “well that was against Miami so big deal”.  Let’s remember this Miami offense averaged 27 PPG over their final 7 a year ago.  Holding any NFL team to 11 points is solid.  Newton isn’t Brady.  We know that.  However might the Pats offense be a bit more diverse with Cam at QB this year?  They ran for 217 yards last week and Newton was 15 of 19 through the air.  If he can simply be efficient in the passing game, this offense could be very good.  Seattle topped Atlanta 38-25 but they were actually outgained 505 to 383.  As per usual, the Falcons put up huge offensive numbers but lose because of mistakes with 2 turnovers and 0 for 4 on 4th down situations in Seattle territory.  The Seahawks were just 2-5 ATS last year as a home favorite and didn’t win a single home game by more than a TD.  We love taking a top notch defense getting points.  Especially with this one sitting above a FG.  We like New England in this one.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 7:30PM ET

As we mentioned in our Game 1 wager on the Lakers, they have benefitted from some favorable scheduling and have caught all three opponents in the playoffs off extended series. First, they had the Blazers who had to battle just to get into the post season then beat Memphis to face the Lakers. In the next round they got a Houston team that was off a grueling 7-game series against Oklahoma City. Now they get Denver, who themselves have had two 7-games series and emotional come from behind wins when they were down 3-1 in both. Fatigue was the very obvious in the opener as the Nuggets were sloppy with the basketball, didn’t win the 50/50 balls and looked slower than the Lakers who scored 16 fast break points. The Lakers have the best playoff point differential at +8.9PPG and have won 9 of eleven playoff games by more than tonight’s spread. Los Angeles led by 27-points in Game 1 and the final margin of 12 does not do justice to how dominating a win it was for L.A. I was surprised this line didn’t come out higher than it did considering the Clippers were favored by as many as 9.5-points in their series against the Nuggets. L.A. can matchup with the Nuggets at every position, but the Nuggets can’t contain Anthony Davis. We will lay the points again with Los Angeles.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +5.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Giants actually looked OK on Monday night. Their offense didn’t do much (lost 26-16) but that was expected vs a Pittsburgh team that just might have the best defense in the NFL. We had the UNDER in that game and cashed but here we like the Giants to play Chicago tight and possibly pull the upset. QB Jones played fairly well against a great defense minus his 2 interceptions (279 yards & 2 TDs). They had no running game but that should improve here vs a Chicago defense that allowed Detroit to run for 138 yards last week. RB Barkley will have a much easier time this week after his 15 carry, 6 yard performance last week. The Bears came from 23-6 down in the 4th quarter @ Detroit last week so they pulled off a huge division comeback win. The Chicago offense looked shaky at best with Trubisky at the helm for much of the game. He did lead them to the 4th quarter comeback but we cannot trust him as a significant favorite. The Giants defense actually impressed us last week holding what should be a very solid Pitt offense (with Roethlisberger back) to 349 yards on 5.5 YPP. They should improve on that this week vs a pedestrian Chicago offense. When these two met here in Chicago last year, the Bears escaped with a 19-14 win after trailing at halftime. We expect the Giants to be improved this year while Chicago we’re not so sure. The Bears have covered only ONCE in their last 7 games as a favorite (can’t trust Trubisky in this role) and NY is 10-2 their last 12 as a road dog. Giants have a decent shot at the outright win here so we’ll grab the points.

ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Game 3 Saturday We are playing on the Celtics minus the points here as a loss essentially ends this series with them down 0-2 already. Boston was solid this season when coming off a loss with a 18-11 SU record, 6-2 their last eight. Boston lost two straight games in the Raptors series then bounced back to win 2 of three so we know they’re capable of getting back into this series with a win here. Boston shot well in the last game and hit 50% from the field in Game 2 after a poor shooting night in Game 1. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and may still win this series but in this situation, we have to fade them. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 4-5 ATS record when getting +2.5 or less points. With a 2-0 lead the Heat may relax a little in this one and leave the door open for the Celtics to get a win and cover. Lay the points in a close Boston win.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Wake Forest +1 over NC State, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a great set up for Wake in our opinion. The Deacons were whipped last week vs Clemson losing 37-13 to what might just be the best team in the country. Now they take a huge step down in competition facing an NC State team that finished 1-7 in ACC play last season getting outscored by 159 points in the process (average ACC loss was by 20 points). While WF was getting a game under their best vs Clemson, the Wolfpack still have yet to play. On top of that, they’ve had a number of Covid outbreak interruptions which has limited their already shortened practice time. They were supposed to open their season 2 weeks ago vs Virginia Tech but that game had to be rescheduled September 26th. That’s not a great situation for a team that struggled last year and is trying to learn new systems on both offense and defense as both coordinators are new this year. The entire NC State coaching staff has pretty much been revamped over the last 2 year which disrupts continuity. Just 1 assistant remains on staff from the 2018 season. While NCSU’s coaching staff has had to go through massive changes, WF head coach Dave Clawson has turned this program from a doormat into a winning program. He took a perennial loser and has now led them to 4 straight winning season. Coaching edge is definitely with Wake in this game. NC State QB Leary returns after starting 6 games last year but we’re not so sure that’s a positive. He completed just 48% of his passes and was 0-6 in those starts losing by an average score of 41-16. When Leary faced off against Wake last year, he struggled to say the least completing just 17 of his 45 pass attempts with the Deacs winning 44-10. He now must face basically that same defense with Wake returning 9 starters on that side of the ball. The Demon Deacons have now won 3 straight in this series including 2 years ago here in Raleigh when they were heavy underdogs. The Pack was favored 3 times at home in ACC games last year and lost 2 of those games outright. Going back to the previous season NCSU has actually lost outright 3 of the last 4 times they’ve been a home ACC favorite. No fans in the stands here takes away any home field advantage NC State may have had. We think Wake is the better team, in the better situation, with no long travel (schools are 100 miles apart), and should be favored here. We’ll gladly take the points with the better team with a game already under their belt.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -7 over Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET The Lakers have benefited from some favorable scheduling and have caught all three opponents in the playoffs off extended series. First, they had the Blazers who had to battle just to get into the post season then beat Memphis to face the Lakers. In the next round they got a Houston team that was off a grueling 7-game series against Oklahoma City. Now they get Denver, who themselves have had two 7-games series and emotional come from behind wins when they were down 3-1 in both. How much do the Nuggets have in their tanks against a well-rested Lakers team? The Lakers have the best playoff point differential at +8.9PPG and have won 8 of ten playoff games by more than tonight’s spread. The Nuggets have captured the attention and hearts of the public and are over-valued in this opening game. We are pulling for a great series here but feel the Lakers get a big win in the opener.

ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtic -2.5 over Miami Heat, Game 2 Thursday 7PM ET We are playing on the Celtics minus the points here as a loss puts them in too deep a hole to get out of. Boston was solid this season when coming off a loss with a 18-10 SU record, 6-1 their last seven. The Celtics led by double-digits going into the fourth then couldn’t buy a bucket down the stretch in the 4th quarter and OT. Two of Boston’s big guns had horrible shooting nights as Tatum and Walker combined for 5 of 21 from the 3-point line. Expect a much better outing as Tatum shot over 40% from downtown this season, while Walking hit over 38%. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and may still win this series but in this situation, we have to fade them. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 3-5 ATS record when getting +2.5 or less points. Lay the points in a close Boston win.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -7.5 over Denver Nuggets, Tuesday 9PM ET We are value bettors and this line has us on the Clippers in this Game 7. The previous numbers on games in this series have had the Clippers favored by -8.5-points and line drop has us on them again here. Is there a better big game player in the NBA than Kawhi Leonard? We don’t think so. The Clippers have blown 16 and 19-point leads in the last two games and we don’t see this veteran team blowing another one in this elimination game. Granted, we love this Denver team and the heart they play with but the situation and pressure is magnified tonight and we don’t see the young Nuggets pulling off another upset. LA is 24-6 SU this season when coming off a loss, 22-8 ATS. The Clippers were outscored by 13-points in the 4th quarter of the last game and blew a 7-point lead. We mentioned this the other day but the Clippers average margin of victory after a loss which is +14PPG. They’ll win by double-digits here and move on to face the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Denver +3 over Tennessee, Monday at 9:20 PM ET

With most NFL teams not allowing fans at least the first few weeks of the season that means there will be little to no home field advantage.  That is not the case here.  Even though Denver will not allow fans, they have a distinct home field advantage due to the altitude.  Especially early in the season and especially this year when teams have had just a 3 week training camp and no pre-season games to get into football shape.  The Broncos are a remarkable 33-4 SU at home in their first 2 weeks of the season partly due to the altitude advantage which will be even more enhances this season as we mentioned.  The Titans have been practicing at an altitude of 597 feet and now they must play in Denver at an altitude of 5,280 feet.  Expect the Titan players to struggle with fatigue in this game.  We think Tennessee comes into this season a bit over valued.  They made the playoffs last year on the heels of RB Henry and a career year from QB Tannehill.  We don’t expect Tannehill to repeat last year 70% completion rate (career high) or 6 interceptions (career low).  We also don’t think Henry will run wild again this year with defenses focused on him.  These two met last year here in Denver and the Broncos pitched at 16-0 shutout holding Henry to just 28 yards on 15 carries.  New Denver QB Lock breathed some life into this offense winning 5 of his 6 games as a starter after replacing Flacco.  The Denver brass picked up some key offensive weapons for him in rookie WR’s Jeudy & Hamler along with signing RB Melvin Gordon.  We like Denver as a home dog here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON LA Rams +2.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET LA was in the Super Bowl 2 years ago and dropped back to 9-7 last year. A regression was expected so that wasn’t a big surprise. This is still a very well coached, solid team that we like as a dog here at home in their first game at the brand new SoFi Stadium. They actually may catch a break with no fans in the stadium as Cowboys fans travel as well as any and this very well could have been a home game like atmosphere for Dallas. The Cowboys are expected to be one of the top teams in the NFC but aren’t they always? The fact is, Dallas is almost always overvalued entering the season and we feel they are here laying a full FG on the road vs a playoff caliber team in the Rams. Dallas beat the have nots last year but they were just 1-6 SU vs teams that made the playoffs. One of the few decent teams they did beat last year was this Rams squad. IT was an embarrassing 44-21 loss for LA at Dallas and we expect they will have a chip on their shoulder here after that setback. The Rams were favored in that game @ Dallas and now they are getting a full FG at home just one year later. In week 1, games that have a total of 50 or higher (this one does) the underdog is 13-2 ATS. This system did lose on Thursday night with KC covering but we don’t see that happening here. The majority of wagers have come in on Dallas (60%) which is not a surprise at all, yet only 35% of the money is on the Boys. We like this situation and we’ll take the Rams +3.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -8.5 over Denver Nuggets, Sunday 1:05 PM ET - We are going to keep this analysis a little shorter than normal with football in full swing but the pick here is the LA Clippers. The Clippers just watched the Lakers end their series against the Rockets and will do the same to the Nuggets Sunday. LA is 24-5 SU this season when coming off a loss, 22-7 ATS. The Clippers were outscored by 13-points in the 4th quarter of the last game and blew a 7-point lead. We don’t anticipate that happening again here with a veteran team. Denver got 26-points from Jamal Murray in Game 5 after struggling to score in the previous two games but don’t expect a repeat performance here. The Clippers have multiple defenders at Murray which then puts a huge scoring onus on Nikola Jokic. The nail in the coffin for us in this wager is the Clippers average margin of victory after a loss which is +15PPG. They’ll win by double-digits here and move on to face the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals

ASA PLAY 8* ON NY Jets +7 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Too many points here in our opinion. The average line in this AFC East series over the last 21 meetings has been 3.5 points. Only 3 times in the last 21 meetings has the line been 7 or higher. We’re getting close here. Buffalo’s offense isn’t potent enough to be laying a full TD in a division rivalry game. They scored 20 points or less in 11 of their 17 games last year. Their QB Allen is the most inaccurate passer in the NFL. He was dead last in the NFL in completion percentage among starters and also threw the highest percentage of uncatchable passes. He’s facing a Jets defense that wasn’t talked about much last year but is very good. They ranked in the top 5 in YPP defense and top 7 in YPG defense. Very comparable numbers to the Buffalo defense which was considered one of the best in the NFL. In their 2 meetings last year the Bills scored a grand total of 23 points. Tough to cover a spread near 7 when you struggle to score. The Jets offensive numbers were bad last year. No doubt about it. However, when QB Darnold was playing, they weren’t terrible. They actually had a winning record (7-6) when Darnold was the starter averaging 20 PPG. In the 3 games he missed due to injury the Jets were 0-3 and barely averaged 7 PPG. We think the NY offense will do enough to keep this one close. Lastly, we love looking at divisional underdogs early in the season. They’ve been very successful. Especially if the game is in week 1 and that divisional dog did not make the playoffs last year (Jets) and they are facing a division team that did make the playoffs last year (Bills). In that situation the dog us 23-6 ATS dating back to 2003. We expect a down to the wire game here and we like the Jets plus the points.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Green Bay +2.5 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Because there are no fans allowed at this game, we have no home field factored in. Than means we have this game at a pick-em as far as the spread goes so the value is on Green Bay. The Packers waltzed into the dome last year, with fans, and absolutely dominated the Vikings. GB won 23-10 and held Minnesota to just 57 yards rushing & 83 yards passing. The Packers actually won both games last year vs Minnesota and with the Vikings player and coach turnover, we definitely like them again here. Minny lost nearly half of their defense from last season including their top 3 DB’s. On top of that, their best DE Hunter is out here with a neck problem. They also lost their top WR Diggs to Buffalo and replaced both coordinators. The OC Stefanski is now the head coach at Cleveland and the DC Edwards is now on the staff at Dallas. With no pre-season and a shortened training camp none of this is a positive for Minnesota. The main cogs on the GB coaching staff remained in place along with most of the starters. They won’t be learning anything new which helps with only a 3 week training camp. We expect Aaron Rodgers to try and prove a point, especially early in the season, as the Packers drafted QB Love as his eventual replacement. When Rodgers has extra motivation like this, he tends to be even better than he normally is, which is one of the top QB’s in the NFL. The value in the number is definitely with the Packers and we’ll side with Green Bay.

#403 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Coastal Carolina +7 over Kansas, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Coastal went into Kansas last year and upset the Jayhawks 12-7 as a TD underdog. While some may think KU will have extra motivation here after that loss, they are simply not good enough to be laying a full TD in this or really any game. Last year was no fluke. The Chanticleers played KU toe to toe and actually had more first downs, more total yardage, and nearly a 10 minute time of possession edge. They return 14 starters this year including many key players and we expect them to be better this season than they were last. Their record last year was just 5-7, however they lost 4 of those 7 games by 7 points or less so they could have easily had a better season. They ran the ball very well last year (35th nationally) and return 4 starters on the OLine along with top RB Marable who ran for 148 yards vs Kansas and over 1,000 on the season. We expect more of the same this year vs a Jayhawk defense that ranked 124th vs the run last year allowing 225 YPG. Kansas lost their QB, 3 starting offensive lineman, their 3 top defensive lineman and their best cover corner and 2 starting safeties. Their defense last year gave up at least 31 points in 8 of their 12 games and now with a number of new faces it’s tough to see a drastic improvement if any. The offense may take some time to gel as well as the QB’s vying for the starting job have attempted a grand total of 19 passes combined in their careers. Lastly, and something we see as a big but overlooked situation is the fact that CC was able to get in ALL 15 of their spring practices to get ready for this season while Kansas did not have a single practice in the spring. This is a KU team that has won just 6 of their last 59 games SU (vs FBS opponents) and now they're being asked to win this one by more than a TD. No thanks. We like Coastal Carolina here.

#427 ASA 8* PLAY ON Arkansas State +13 over Kansas State, Saturday at 12 PM ET Arkansas State is off a loss at Memphis last week by 13 points but they were only outgained by 78 yards in that game. It was a bit of a deceiving final score and they are particularly dangerous on offense because they have the option of two solid quarterbacks in Bonner and Hatcher. Both saw some time under center last week and, though RB Murray did not play last week, their top 3 running backs in that game totaled 136 yards on 25 carries and were led by senior RB Jamal Jones. The QB's combined to throw for nearly 300 yards and though Bonner threw two picks in that game a repeat is unlikely. Bonner had 10 TDs against just 1 INT last season. The fact is the Red Wolves have a very talented and veteran group on offense and that is what makes them especially dangerous as a big dog. Arkansas State is a hard team to put away and their experience factor gives them a huge edge here as they return one of the more experienced teams in the nation while Kansas State ranks as one of the least experienced FBS programs this year. The Wildcats are the better team defensively when comparing these teams. However, on the other side of the ball, Kansas State lost nearly all of its starting offense. They return a solid QB in Skylar Thompson but nearly all the other starters from last season's offensive unit are gone and that includes the entire offensive line! New offensive lines generally take awhile to play their best together and that will surely be the case here especially with how disjointed the 2020 offseason was for these players. Adding to that factor is a big but potentially overlooked situation and that is the fact that Arkansas State was able to get in 11 of their spring practices to get ready for this season while Kansas State did not have a single practice in the spring. This is a Wildcats team that is just 6-5 their last 11 games and only 2 of those wins came by more than 7 points (and 1 of those victories came by just 10 points) and now they're being asked to win this one by more than 10 points. This is asking a lot when one considers the Red Wolves also have the game in hand edge too as a result of playing last week. We like Arkansas State here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5 runs) over Boston Red Sox, Friday at 6:40 PM ET

Stop the  presses...the Red Sox (16-29 this season) have won 2 straight games!  All kidding aside it has been a very rough season for them and note that Boston is 1-5 this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games.  As you can deduce from that, the longest winning streak is 3 games for the Red Sox this season.  They have a chance to match that here but they won't.  This one is a complete mismatch which is why the Rays are priced as a more than a $2 favorite on the money line here.  The value is in the run line in what is set up perfectly to be a home blowout.  The Red Sox, prior to these back to back wins, were mired in a stretch that had seen them lose 20 of 28 games.  15 of those 20 defeats came by a margin of 2 or more runs and per our computer math modeling, this one will too!  Blake Snell is the Rays ace and he takes the mound off his very first loss of the season and with his team on a 3-game losing streak.  There is not better time to grab an ace and Snell should dominate Boston.  The Red Sox hitters that have experience against him have a combined .158 batting average with 0 homers and 2 RBI in 76 bats.  That includes holding Xander Bogaerts (Boston's most feared hitter) to just 3 hits in 23 at bats for a .130 batting average!  Snell went 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in the month of August before losing his first September start which was also his first loss of the season.  He struck out 8 in 5 innings and his "stuff" on the mound is just fine.  His counterpart tonight is Boston's Andrew Triggs and he is really more of an opener.  He is unlikely to pitch deep into this game and has a 9.95 ERA this season and had a 5.23 ERA in his most recent season pitched - 2018.  That means what matters here most, with Triggs not working deep, is overall pitching of the Red Sox.  That said, note that Boston is dead last in the majors with a 6.10 ERA on the year.  This one is all Rays!  Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout as they hammer the Red Sox pitching plus ride a strong start from Snell and the best value here is with utilizing the run line to get them at a short price by laying the 1.5 runs.  Lay it!  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday.

ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat -3 over Milwaukee Bucks, 6:30PM ET

Giannis or no Giannis we are heavy on the Miami Heat in Game 5 Tuesday. I am going to start with coaching. Mike Budenholzer is clearly a great regular season and players coach but is not a tactician and isn’t great with playoff adjustments. It showed last year in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Raptors when he did not figure out a way to counter the Raptors “wall” defense against Giannis. His lack of game management has reared its ugly head again this year. I am thoroughly convinced if we flipped coaches in this series, it’s over already with the Bucks up 4-0. The NBA is about getting the matchup you can exploit, and Coach Bud just does not seem to figure it out. I am screaming at the TV for the Bucks to use whoever Tyler Herro is guarding to screen for Middleton or even Lopez to get a switch and a mismatch, but it did not happen until the final possession of OT. Herro made some big 3’s down the stretch in Game 4 but he’s a liability on defense. And why haven’t the Bucks used Brook Lopez in the post instead of having him stand in the corner for 3’s and NOT offensive rebound (7ft tall and 7 O-boards in series)? The coaching advantage for the Heat with Eric Spoelstra is glaring and unfortunately for Bucks fans, their season ends today. The Bucks got a huge jump start from Giannis in Game 4 before he went down with an injured ankle. Then Khris Middleton took over in the 3rd and OT periods but I’m not betting he can duplicate those numbers (36-points on 12 of 28 shooting). The Heat have averaged 1.140 points per possession against the Bucks which is the best overall O-efficiency numbers in this round of the Playoffs and makes the Bucks the worst defensive efficiency team in this round. Miami’s defensive numbers are obviously very good as they’ve held the Bucks offense (1.124PPP regular season) to just 1.080 points per possession. Miami has been outstanding off a SU loss this season with a 23-7 SU record and a winning margin of +7.4PPG. The Heat clearly have a matchup advantage over the Bucks as they’ve beaten them 5 of seven meetings this season and even though they had an average shooting night in Game 4, and the Bucks shot extremely well at 49%, they still almost won in OT. Jimmy Butler and company win this game rather easily and advance to face either the Celtics or Raptors.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -5.5 over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET In the series against the Blazers the Lakers averaged 1.149 points per possession which is 5th among playoff teams and better than their regular season numbers of 1.120PPP but against Houston in Game 1 of this series they hit just 42% of their FG attempts and scored 97-points. LeBron looked completely disinterested and the team couldn’t buy a 3-pointer as they hit 11 of 38 from beyond the arc. Off that horrible showing the Lakers will rebound here with a much better effort. Los Angeles was 12-8 SU off a loss this season with 8 of those wins coming on the road which is essentially the case here in the Bubble. The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season and have been better in the Playoffs allowing just 1.059 points per possession. Houston surprisingly played really well in the opener after a grueling 7-game series against the Thunder, but the numbers suggest they don’t play as well in this Game 2. Houston allowed 115PPG in the regular season this year which was 22nd out of 30 teams in the NBA. The Rockets allowed 50PPG in the paint this season which ranked them 23rd in the league while the Lakers were 2nd in the league in scoring in the paint at over 52PPG. Los Angeles will look to pound the ball inside against the Rockets in Game 2 and take advantage of a front line of Davis, McGee and Howard. Frank Vogel is a great coach and will adjust here including LeBron on the block a few times and take advantage of his size in the post. Lakers bounce back here with a double-digit win.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Army West Point Black Knights (-) over Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET: Game #242

This is a tough spot for Middle Tennessee.  This will be the first time that coach Rick Stockstill's team has faced an option attack in 7 years.  That was a bowl game loss to Navy by a margin of 18 points.  Making the situation even more troublesome for the Blue Raiders here is that they were originally game planning for two other opponents before finally becoming aware in mid-August that their first game would be against the Black Knights.  In other words, why worry about preparing for an option attack if you're not expecting to face one?  But now just a few weeks before the season opener you find out your team is opening the season at West Point and facing the option attack of Army!  This is unlikely to go well for Stockstill's team.  Middle Tennessee allowed 459 yards per game last year and that ranked them 114th out of about 130 in the nation.  Now that sub-par defense has to contend with an offensive attack they are not familiar with facing.  On the other side of the ball, the Blue Raiders are solid offensively but some running back transfers and on offensive linemen opted out of the season.  So Middle Tennessee has been impacted (scheduling and opt outs) significantly in more ways than one heading into this season.  The Blue Raiders will be facing an Army defense that returns the majority of its starters and which allowed 23 points and only 178.9 passing yards per game last season the latter of which ranked the Black Knights 5th in the nation!  One final note about Army's offense is that though they have a new QB this season it is a senior, Christian Anderson.  He did play in 6 games last season and started 1 and ran for over 400 yards.  Anderson is a perfect fit for the Black Knights option attack.  Lay the points with Army as a small home favorite in early afternoon action Saturday.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -6.5 over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET This Game 1 situation is remarkably like the Clipper/Nuggets series as this Los Angeles team has been off since Aug 29th while the Rockets are off a grueling 7-game series with OKC and have little in the tank for this game. The Lakers took care of a Portland team that was in the same boat as the Rockets are now, exhausted and off a demanding series of games, so do not expect a close game in this opener. After losing Game 1 versus Portland the Lakers ripped off 4 straight wins by 23, 8, 20 and 9-points. Houston was taken to seven games against OKC and needed a last second defensive play (yes, I said defensive) from James Harden to preserve the win. Off that win expect a letdown here. There was some concern about the Lakers offense in the NBA restart as they had the second worst offensive efficiency numbers in the 8 Bubble games, but the Playoffs have been a different story. In the series against the Blazers the Lakers averaged 1.149 points per possession which is 5th among playoff teams and better than their regular season numbers of 1.120PPP. The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season while Houston was 14th but the Rockets have been better in the restart. LA is 14-6 SU this season when playing with 2+ days rest while the Rockets are 6-9 SU when at a disadvantage in rest and those losses have come by an average of -7.1PPG. The rested Lakers have the edge in this opener and our model predicts a 14-point win.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Vancouver Canucks Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Vegas Golden Knights, Friday at 9 PM ET

Thatcher Demko has stepped in between the pipes for the Canucks in the absence of Jacob Markstrom and what a job he has done.  He is the reason there is a Game 7 in this series and there is no way we're stepping in front of this Vancouver hockey club right now.  They believe. They absolutely believe they can win and head to the Western Conference finals.  Confidence goes a long way toward winning games and right now Demko and the Canucks have momentum and confidence on their side.  Even with getting heavily outshot in each of the last two games (and really throughout this series) Vancouver is still standing because of Demko stopping 90 of 91 shots in his two starts.  Per our computer math model this will be a very tight game likely decided by a single goal and so we're going to lay the price to have the +1.5 goals on our side with the Canucks in this one.  Vancouver got a big boost with some late scoring in Game 6.  Do not underestimate the importance of that as the Canucks now feel they can get it done in the offensive zone too.  Plus, despite two capable netminders in the form of Lehner and Fleury, how confident can those guys be the way this series has turned on a dime?  This Game 7 could be epic.  We look for a tremendous game that could even go into OT which is why we're grabbing the goal and a half with the team that has momentum on their side too!  Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and getting a very fair price, currently in -130 range) with Vancouver is the way to play this one.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET At first glance you would think this number is way too high but in reality, it isn’t, especially given the circumstances. The Nuggets are in a tough spot here having just played a physically and mentally draining 7-game series against the Jazz. Denver was down 1-3 to Utah, then won three in a row which were all tight games. Jamal Murray was sensational in the series with 50, 42, 50 and 17 points in the final four games but he also logged over 40 minutes in each of those. Nuggets All-Star center Jokic also played more than his season average in minutes in the series and now on one day rest they face a Clippers team that has been off since Sunday. After a small scare in the first few gams of their series against the Mavs the Clippers took care of business by winning Games 5 and 6 by 43 and 14 points, respectively. In fact, their four wins over Dallas all came by 8 or more points which is obviously close to tonight’s spread. The Clippers are solid when they have a rest advantage over their opponents with a 28-18 SU record the past two seasons. How important is rest you ask? There are only 10 teams in the league that do not have winning records when playing with two or more days rest the past two seasons. These two teams met in the Bubble with the Clippers winning by 13. During the regular season L.A. had two more victories over Denver, each by double-digits (29 & 10). These two teams have remarkably similar numbers offensively in the Bubble and Playoffs, but the Clippers hold a HUGE advantage defensively where the Nuggets rank dead last in defensive efficiency ratings in both the Playoffs and Bubble.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-) over South Alabama Jaguars, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #236

This line was as high as a -15.5 but now has fallen to as low as a -13 as of Thursday morning.  We're going to take advantage of this line falling below the key number of 14 and get involved with a Golden Eagles team that is primed for a blowout win here.  Southern Miss finished last season poorly as they lost their 3 last games by a combined 50 points!  That being said, the Eagles have been anxiously awaiting a chance to erase the bitter taste of last season's poor finish and finally it has arrived.  South Alabama should prove to be the perfect "punching bag" here for Southern MIss to take out their frustrations relating to last year's poor ending.  While it is true that the Jaguars return 15 starters from last year's team that may not be such a good thing as that Jags team won just 2 games last season!  Look for the Golden Eagles to take advantage of a South Alabama pass defense that was a significant weakness last season.  Also, the Eagles did lose 2 years ago as a home favorite against a Sun Belt opponent and they have been reminded of that heading into this game.  In other words they won't make the same mistake twice and, per our computer math model, a win in the 3 TD range is expected in this one.  Lay the big points with Southern Miss in what should be a home blowout in evening action Thursday.

ASA play 8* on: Toronto Raptors -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 6:30PM ET It’s do-or-die time for the defending Champion Toronto Raptors as they trail the Celtics 0-2 in this series and must win this game tonight to have any chance of advancing. Even though the Raptors lost Game 2 (off a loss), Toronto is a solid 37-15 SU when coming off a loss the past two seasons and they win those games by an average of +6.8PPG. The biggest difference in the series thus far has been the horrendous 3-point shooting of the Raptors who have hit under 29% from beyond the arc in both games. That is not normal as they shoot over 37% on the season and are the 6th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. When you break down the statistics these two teams are eerily similar in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the Playoffs and Bubble games with the Raptors holding a slight advantage in D.E.F.F in the eight Bubble games. Toronto was in this same scenario a year ago when they were down 0-2 to the Bucks before winning four straight so they know it can be done. We will back the desperate Raptors in this game and a win here get’s them back into the series.

ASA top play 10* on: Milwaukee Bucks -5 over Miami Heat, 6:30PM ET The computers and numbers have us on the Bucks tonight in a bounce back situation, off a loss and desperate for a win. Milwaukee has been “money” off a loss with a 13-5 SU record this season and a 35-9 SU run since the start of 2018. In the last two years when coming off a loss the Bucks average margin of victory is +10.7PPG and they cover the spread by nearly +3PPG. Both teams shot well in the opener, but the Heat were plus +5 in offensive rebounds and had 3 less turnovers. Jimmy Butler had a huge game for Miami with 40-points on 13 of 20 shooting while making 12 of 13 free throw attempts. League MVP could not match those numbers 18-points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists but turned it over 6 times and missed 8 free throws. The Greek Freak is a fierce competitor and will bounce back here with a huge stat line in Game 2. Last year in the playoffs in a similar situation the Bucks lost the first game of the series against the Boston Celtics then bounced back in Game 2 to win by 21-points. In the first round against Orlando the Bucks lost Game 1 then beat the Magic by 15 in the second game. Milwaukee was the number one or best defensive efficiency team in the NBA in the regular season allowing just 1.029 points per possession and Miami produced 1.150PPG in Game 1 which was an aberration based on season statistics. Expect a return to normal here and the Bucks get a double-digit win in Game 2.

ASA top play 10* on: Houston Rockets -5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET With this being an elimination game, you would expect most bettors to back the Thunder and the dog here but not us. The Rockets are a completely different team when they have dynamic guard Russell Westbrook in the lineup, and even though his numbers were not significant in the Rockets Game 4 win, he still had an impact. Westbrook’s ability to get to the rim and in driving lanes forces defenders in slightly instead of being in the gaps which allows Rocket shooters another split second to get a shot off. Expect more minutes and production from Westbrook tonight against the Thunder. OKC thought they found a way to contain James Harden with rookie Luguentz Dort defending him in Games 3 & 4 and causing problems for the Rockets scoring machine. In Game 5 the Rockets adjusted, hit Dort with better angles on screens which freed up Hardin who scored 31-points on just 15 shots. Dort then proved to be a liability on the offensive end of the floor where he missed 13 of 16 field goal attempts. The Rockets have been significantly better defensively in the playoffs and the Bubble allowing less points per possession than they did during the regular season while maintaining an offensive efficiency that is averaging 1.118PPP against OKC. We recognize the Thunder have solid support as an underdog and when off a loss, but the Rockets have too many scoring options for the Thunder to overcome.

ASA top play 10* on: Orlando Magic +13.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 3:30 PM ET - Can the Magic win this game today? Sure, but will they, no. They can however cover the spread with the generous number. After winning Game #1 the Magic have been beaten by the Bucks by 15, 14 and 15 points. In the last game of this series the Bucks won by 15-points but needed to outscore the Magic by 12 in the 4th quarter. Milwaukee had the best overall average margin of victory this season at +10.1PPG which is a tremendous number, but it is still not enough to cover this spread. In the eight Bubble “regular” season games the Bucks average point differential was 0.3PPG and in this series their MOV is 8PPG. Orlando had a negative point differential of minus -1PPG and only 14 of their 43 losses this season have been by 15 or more points. The Bucks haven’t been great as a double-digit favorite this season with an 18-19 ATS record and given the circumstances they could be resting starters late in this game which would make for a potential back-door cover. Grab the points with Orlando.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET The Clippers are off of a poor showing and a last second loss in Game 4 to the Mavs and are now tied 2-2 in this first round series. NOBODY has been better than the Clippers when coming off a loss this season with a 21-3 SU record and an average margin of victory of +15.3PPG (covering games by 7.7PPG). The Mavericks have played well in the series and Luka Doncic is going to be next year’s MVP and may win that award multiple years. His buzzer beating step back 3-pointer is only the start of his legendary status in the NBA for years to come. The Mavs shot extremely well by making 50% of their FG attempts and 36% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are more of an aberration than a norm as the Mavs were 15th in the league in team field goal percentage on season and the Clippers had the 3rd best FG% “D” allowing 43.9% on the year. The Mavs are currently 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency but the Clippers are 2nd. Defensively though the Clippers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks are 18th. Lastly, the Clippers have covered 9 of their last ten when coming off a loss. We are betting Paul George finally shows up and Kawhi Leonard shoulders the burden in this crucial game for the franchise.

ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat -6 over Indiana Pacers, 6:30PM ET Sometimes when it looks like two even teams on paper and all the stats are equal, but one team continues to win, it is a match up issue. That is clearly the case in this series as the Heat have beaten the Pacers three straight and four of five in the Bubble. The only game the Pacers won was a throw away game as the seedings were set. Miami has a +10PPG margin in the three wins and we cannot imagine them not winning again by double-digits in this elimination game. Going back before the break the Heat are 6-1 SU this season against the Pacers, covering five of the seven. Miami holds edges in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in this series and have gotten balanced scoring throughout this first round match up. In Game #3 the Heat had four players score 20+ points, six in double-digits. Indiana doesn’t have as many scoring options as Miami and just can’t keep pace with the Heat. If it ain’t broke, then don’t fix it. Heat win again.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 3:10 PM ET

The red hot Rays have won 13 of 15 games.  The Jays got 2 runs in the top of the 8th to make it a 2nd straight 1-run win for the Rays in this series.  But prior to that, 7 of the Rays last 8 wins had been decided by a margin of 2 or more runs.  We are anticipating a blowout type win here that is similar to the types of wins in that  8 game stretch which had an average margin of victory of 4 runs per game.  Indeed, Tampa Bay's lineup has improved as the season has gone on and they continue to get good pitching.  Blake Snell gets the start here for the Rays and he is 2-0 in his 3 August starts and has held opponents to a .178 batting average this month.  The left-hander is battling back from a disappointing 2019 season and showing signs of the form that saw him go 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA in 2018! Coincidentally Snell held opponents to a .178 batting average that season.  Look for his August dominance to continue here.  The Jays, prior to this series, had 11 losses on the year and 8 of those came by a multiple run margin.  Toronto sends Tanner Roark to the hill for this one.  The veteran right-hander is struggling this month.  Roark allowed 7 earned runs in 7 innings in his first two August starts.  He then followed that up by allowing 9 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start.  Roark allowed just 2 runs (1 earned) in that start but had to escape some big jams.  He won't be so fortunate the way these Rays are swinging the sticks right now and they get him into trouble early and, unlike the Orioles against Roark, they will cash in on those scoring chances!  The Rays are averaging 6.3 runs per game their last 13 games.  Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout as they ride momentum and the best value here is with utilizing the run line to get them at a short price by laying the 1.5 runs.  Lay it!  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs in afternoon action Monday.

ASA top play 10* on: Denver Nuggets +3.5 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET

If you’ve been following ASA for any length of time then you know we are numbers bettors not teams bettors which has us on Denver here today. With no home court advantage and all the games being played on a neutral court the lines shouldn’t fluctuate too much from game to game but this series has seen a significant move. The Nuggets were favored by -4.5 points in Game 1 of this series but are now a 3-point dog here. That’s a huge swing in value and has us on Denver here. The Nuggets were blown out in Game 3 and now trail 1-2 in this series which makes this a desperate situation for Denver. Denver has been fantastic when coming off a loss this season with a 19-9 SU record and are 39-23 SU in that role the past two years. Since the restart the Jazz have an average point differential of minus -3.1PPG which is barely better than the Nuggets -4.8PPG and clearly not a big enough separation to cover this spread. The Dog has covered 4 of the last six in this rivalry. Grab the points!

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET

All the experts and oddsmakers had the Clippers as one of the three favorites along with the Bucks and Lakers to win it all in 2020 and they were not wrong. This team has been built for a Championship and now they are off a poor showing and a loss in Game 2 to the Mavs. That’s very important for our wager today as the Clippers are the BEST team in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 20-3 SU record and an average margin of victory of +15.3PPG (covering games by 7.7PPG). Great players respond when their egos have been bruised which will be the case Friday for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard who didn’t expect to be 1-1 in this series right now. The Mavericks played well in the first two games and Luka Doncic is going to be next year’s MVP and may win that award multiple years. The Mavs shot extremely well by making 50% of their FG attempts and 45% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are more of an aberration than a norm as the Mavs were 15th in the league in team field goal percentage on season and the Clippers had the 3rd best FG% “D” allowing 43.9% on the year. The Mavs are currently 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency but the Clippers are 2nd. Defensively though the Clippers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks are 18th. We haven’t even mentioned the value in the line on this game as the Clippers have dropped a few points from the first two games. Lastly, the Clippers have covered 8 of their last nine when coming off a loss. Easy call with L.A.

ASA play 8* on: Denver Nuggets -1.5 over Utah Jazz, 4PM ET This series is tied one-to-one with the Jazz coming off a big Game 2 win. That sets up our wager here as the Nuggets have been exceptional off a loss this season with a 19-8 SU record and an average margin of victory of +4.6PPG. Going back two full seasons the Nuggets are 39-22 SU off a loss, +4.9PPG. Utah relies heavily on Donovan Mitchell to do a lot of the scoring with 57-points in the opener then 30 in Game 2, but he cannot sustain those types of numbers as this series progresses. The Jazz were a solid shooting team on the season at 47.1% which was 6th in the NBA but in Game 2 they shot remarkably well at 52%. We do not foresee those shooting statistics here against a Nuggets defense that will be highly motivated here off a poor showing. Granted the Jazz get Conley back here, but Denver has more scoring options with Jokic, Murray and Porter Jr. After the line move, the value and situation clearly favor the Nuggets in this game. Bet the Nuggets.