ASA PLAY ON 9* Stanford Cardinal (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #364

The questionable status of Bryce Love has resulted in a very favorable line here. Even if he did not play in this game we do not expect this to be a significant factor. Keep in mind the Cardinal have been getting the job done through the air rather than on the ground. 72% of their yardage this season has come via the passing attack and they're hosting a Utah team that allowed 445 passing yards at Washington State last week! This is absolutely a critical game for Stanford as they have a bye week on deck and they want to respond after a dismal effort at Notre Dame last week. After that non-conference game, the Cardinal will be highly motivated for a Pac 12 match-up. Also, from mid-September to late October, this is the only home game for Stanford so they want to make it count to say the least! The Utes, since a road win at Arizona early last season, have gone 2-8 SU in their last 10 Pac 12 games and that includes an 0-2 start this season. Stanford is 12-2 SU in their last 14 regular season games and 9 of the 12 wins have come by 7 points or more. Based on the above, you can see why we're very comfortable laying the points here as this line has been holding at under a touchdown during this week leading up to the game. Lay the points and look for the home team to win in a blowout in this Saturday late night match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #387

The Hawkeyes can't wait to get on the field for this one. After a tough home loss versus Wisconsin - game was much closer than final score indicates - Iowa has had two weeks to wait for this game because of a bye last week. That said, off of their first loss of the season, the Hawkeyes are extra hungry. One could argue the same fact for the Golden Gophers as Minnesota is off of their first loss of the season too and is coming off of a bye week. However, that is where the comparisons end. For one thing, Iowa played a solid Badgers team and played them tough. Compare this with Minnesota playing a Maryland team that is certainly not a Big Ten powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination and they got blasted by a 29-point margin. A big concern for the Golden Gophers is they allowed over 300 yards rushing in that game. Iowa has a very capable ground attack that is balanced well by a passing attack that has averaged nearly 300 yards per game their past two games. Iowa has a huge edge at the skill positions as Minnesota lost their senior running back early this season and now has much of the running back duties being handled by freshmen plus the Golden Gophers have a freshman QB whom is a walk-on. There is simply no comparison between the talent level of these teams. Also, while Kirk Ferentz is in his 20th year as the head coach at Iowa - longest-tenured head coach among FBS schools in the nation - PJ Fleck is in his just 2nd season with Minnesota and there are still growing pains. Though the Golden Gophers started the season with 3 straight wins, two of those victories came against over-matched New Mexico State and Miami-Ohio. Minnesota went just 2-7 in Big Ten action last season and is now 2-8 in Big Ten games under PJ Fleck after getting demolished by the Terrapins two weeks ago. The 8 losses have come by an average margin of 19 points per defeat. That is very close to what our computer math model is predicting for this game. Iowa is a 1 TD favorite but the forecast is for a blowout by a 3 TD margin. The Hawkeyes are 8-0 ATS the last 8 times they've been a favorite of less than 17 points and they are facing an opponent off of a SU loss by a margin of more than 14 points. That system fits perfectly here! Look for a road rout win in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.

ASA 9* BYU (-) over Utah State, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - The Cougars are off a rough game @ Washington losing 35-7. It was a poor performance on both sides of the ball against one of the top teams in the nation so we expect a big effort at home in a game BYU needs to win. They come in with a 3-2 overall record but they’ve also played one of the toughest schedules in the nation thus far already facing the likes of Wisconsin, Arizona, California, and Washington. They are one of just 6 teams in the nation that have already faced 4 Power Five teams. They beat both Wisconsin & Arizona on the road so this team is definitely capable. The one negative we see with this game is they do catch Utah State off a bye which we’re not crazy about. However, USU has played a MUCH easier schedule. They played Michigan State tough in a 7-point loss to open the season. They were a little lucky to stay close in that game as they were outgained by over 100 yards and benefitted from a interception return for TD. Since that game the Aggies have played New Mexico State, Tennessee Tech, and Air Force. So while BYU has been playing a tough slate of teams to prepare them for this spot, USU has been padding their overall stats vs weak opponents. The Aggies offensive numbers are impressive, but the last 3 games they’ve faced the 103rd ranked defense (NMSU), 70th ranked defense (Air Force) and a Tennessee Tech defense that has allowed 51 PPG this year. These two met last year @ Utah State and BYU was a 1-point favorite in that game. Now a much improved BYU team is laying just 2 points at home. The Aggies won last year 40-26 at home but it was a misleading final score as BYU outgained them 396 to 288. BYU had a ridiculous 7 turnovers in that game which led to the USU win. Now Utah State will attempt to beat BYU in consecutive seasons for the first time since the 1974 season! It won’t happen here as the Cougars will be focused and play very well after their worst outing of the season. Lay this small number at home with BYU

ASA PLAY ON 9* Atlanta Braves Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Thursday at 8:35 PM ET

With the line move here there is excellent line value on the underdog Braves at +1.5 runs on the run line. The price is in the -130 range and it gives you the added insurance of turning a 1-run loss into a winning ticket you can cash at the window. The fact is that we expect the Dodgers to struggle just to win this game let alone win it by 2 or more runs. Los Angeles moved back Clayton Kershaw to Game 2 so Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the start here. Though he is also a southpaw he certainly is no Kershaw and the Braves have been one of the best hitting teams in the majors versus left-handed pitching this season. Also Atlanta's Mike Foltneywicz has a stellar 2.48 ERA on the road this season and has allowed a total of just 6 earned runs in his 5 road starts the past two months! The Dodgers Ryu has allowed 38 hits in 35 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last 6 home starts. He was truly hit very hard in 3 of those 6 outings and now faces a tough Atlanta lineup. No doubt the Braves should be "in this one" all the way and have a great shot at the outright upset. We'll grab the extra insurance with the run line should they fall one run short in this one. Bet Atlanta on the run line (+1.5 runs) in evening action Thursday

ASA PLAY ON 9* Oakland Athletics Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ New York Yankees, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET

Oakland has decided on a multi-pitcher effort in the AL Wild Card game as Liam Hendriks is slated to get the start but is likely to only pitch an inning or two. With nearly all A's arms available in a "win or go home" game, we like the odds of a strong effort from the A's pitchers in this one and will take advantage of the value in fading Luis Severino. The Yankees righty has struggled every since the All Star break. Of course many will remember his first start of last year's post-season too where he was drilled by Minnesota and forced to exit in the first inning due to inefficiency. Overall, Severino had a sub-par post-season last year and we like the value with Athletics +1.5 runs on the run line. The A's did hit Severino hard in early September and knocked him out of the game by the 3rd inning. The Yankees, on the run line at -1.5 runs, have only cashed a ticket TWICE in their last EIGHT games in the Bronx! The A's have been one of the hottest teams in baseball for months now and at +1.5 runs have been particularly lethal dating back to early in the season. Even including their early season stats when they weren't playing as well, Oakland has only 51 losses by 2 or more runs this season meaning their record at +1.5 runs would be 111-51. The Yankees are only 17-15 on the money line their last 32 games and, at -1.5 runs, that record turns into an unimpressive 13-19. Bet the Oakland A's on the run line (+1.5 runs) in evening action Wednesday

ASA PLAY ON 9* Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line (-1.5 goals) vs Montreal Canadiens, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

Toronto is on the ascension in a big way while the Canadiens struggle continue. Of course that is why the Maple Leafs are north of a 2 to 1 money line favorite in their season opener versus division rival Montreal Wednesday. That said, what we like here is the value with the puck line as we can lay the 1.5 goals and, in turn, we get a plus money return offered back to us. The Canadiens are missing a couple of their Top Six defensemen, David Slemko and Shea Weber, and also the Habs simply won't be able to stop the powerhouse Maple Leafs forwards. Montreal lost 17 of the 21 road starts made by goalie Carey Price last season! Toronto won 27 of the 38 home starts made by Frederik Anderson. This is simply a mismatch all the way around and a home victory by a multiple-goal margin can be expected. The Canadiens have lost 10 of their last 12 road games with a total set at 6 or more goals. The Maple Leafs have won 28 of their last 41 home games with a total set at 6 goals or more. Bet Toronto on the puck line (-1.5 goals) in early evening action Wednesday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

We love looking at teams with the MUCH better defense getting points.  That’s absolutely what we have here as Baltimore has the 5th most efficient defense in the NFL right now (according to Football Outsiders) and Pittsburgh is 19th.  The Ravens are allowing just 17 PPG while the Steelers have given up 30 PPG on the season.  On top of that Baltimore is allowing 138 fewer yards per game so overall ranking 1st in the NFL on total defense so a big edge defensively for us in this one.  The Pittsburgh offense looks as if they are rolling the last 2 weeks putting up big numbers vs KC & Tampa.  However, let’s put that in perspective as those team defenses rank 31st and 32nd in total defense.  The one decent defense the Steelers played this year was Cleveland and they scored just 21 in that game.  Baltimore’s offense is looking much better than it did the last few seasons as they are already averaging 32 PPG this season.  They will absolutely be able to move the ball vs this porous Pitt defense on Sunday.  Pittsburgh is on a short week after winning Monday night at Tampa 30-27 – nearly blowing a 30-10 lead because of their poor defense.  Steelers just 3-9 ATS their last 12 games off an outright win and 12 of last 20 in this series have been decided by 3 or less.  The dog is 9-3-1 ATS last 12 meetings and we simply think Baltimore is the better team this year.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

If Jon Gruden doesn't win this game he might just get run out of Oakland along with his 100 million dollar contract! The Raiders have played well this year but haven't cracked the win column yet, that changes today. Oakland has outgained the Rams and Dolphins and were barely outgained by 12 yards in Denver but are still 0-3. The Raiders have the 11th best offensive efficiency rating in the NFL this year and that's going against a solid group of defenses. Oakland's defensive efficiency is skewed as they've faced two top 8 offenses this year and Denver who is 15th. What we're saying is this, the Raiders are far better than their record indicates and are only laying a field goal or less in this contest. Cleveland comes into this game with their first win since 2016 as they beat the Jets. Really, a win over a bad Jets team with another rookie QB makes this team even on a neutral field against the Raiders? The Browns have lost 22 straight road losses and have their own rookie QB making his first start ever on the road. Cleveland's offense is one of the worst in the league at 30th in OEFF and 20 points (average) isn't going to be enough to keep pace with the Raiders who are 6th in the league in total yards per game (400ypg).  The Browns last 16 road losses have come by an average of 11.5PPG! Need we say more. Play the Raiders. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) over Kentucky Wildcats, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #141

When you see a ranked team hosting an unranked foe and yet priced in a "pick'em" range it certainly is something worthy of investigation. Of course the markets are enamored with Kentucky right now after seeing them upset Mississippi State last week. However the Bulldogs were caught looking ahead to a big game against Florida (their former coach) and they paid for it with an ugly loss. Prior to this game the Wildcats have looked strong but two of their three prior games were against Central Michigan and Murray State. They're facing a tough South Carolina team that has inexplicably lost 4 straight meetings with the Cats. In other words, revenge is in order here. The Gamecocks have a ton of momentum here as they completely demolished the Commodores in the 2nd half of their game last week at Vanderbilt. Though South Carolina lost by 10 to the Wildcats last season, they actually outgained Kentucky in that game. The Gamecocks have faced the tougher schedule this season and also could have the fresher legs here. The Wildcats will be playing their 5th straight Saturday while South Carolina had a bye two weeks ago on the 15th prior to then pummeling Vanderbilt last week. Kentucky is 20-37 SU (including 3-6 SU in recent seasons) when off of a win over an SEC foe. South Carolina, in games with a line between -3 and +3, has gone 4-1 SU and ATS in recent seasons. The Gamecocks are also 3-1 SU (4-0 ATS) in their last 4 games played on turf. The South Carolina passing attack has been a clear strength this season and will be the difference-maker in this match-up. The Wildcats rely heavily on the run and the Gamecocks actually have been strong against the run but their numbers got skewed by the match-up against Georgia. Of course the Bulldogs are certainly one of the top teams in the nation and note that South Carolina held their other two opponents this season (including Vandy last week) to an average of only 3 yards per carry. With this line currently at -1 on Kentucky but possibly moving higher (the public choice in this match-up) it is also worth nothing that the Wildcats are on a 2-11 ATS run as a favorite! Look for a road rout revenge win in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Mississippi State Bulldogs (-) over Florida Gators, Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #194

Mississippi State is in bounce back mode after they appeared to look right past Kentucky and lost 28-7 last week as a double digit favorite. While Florida is 3-1 so far this season and has rolled to a 3-1 ATS mark they've been in their preferred role as a favorite. As an underdog the past two seasons the Gators went an ugly 1-9 ATS and that includes 0-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Florida's head coach Dan Mullen is facing his former team and the Bulldogs will have some extra motivation as the message was that he left under the premise the grass was greener on the other side of the fence! The Gators won by 26 at Tennessee last week but actually barely outgained the Volunteers in that game and that is helping to add to the line value in this match-up. The spread had been above 7 but has settled back in at 7 as of early Friday morning. Mississippi State is on a 4-0 ATS run when hosting the Gators. Though these teams have faced very similar schedules early this season, the Bulldogs offense has averaged over 100 yards more than the Florida offense while allowing about 70 yards less per game on the other side of the ball. Take the highly motivated home team that has outperformed this foe on both sides of the ball so far this season and that is ready to respond after that unexpected loss to the Wildcats. Clearly the Bulldogs were looking ahead to this match-up and they'll be ready here. We expect a home blowout in this Saturday early evening match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Northwestern Wildcats (+) over Michigan Wolverines, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET: Game #210

When off of their regular season bye week, Northwestern is 3-0 ATS their last 3. The Wildcats needed the bye after a disappointing (and highly unexpected) home loss to Akron as a 3-TD underdog. Northwestern did out-gain the Zips by 124 yards and have held each of their last two opponents under 100 yards rushing. The Wildcats did lose RB Jeremy Larkin as he is being forced to retire due to a medical condition but look for them to rally around this factor and have a huge home game performance versus Michigan here. The Wolverines have won 3 straight games by big margins but their schedule has been light since opening up the season with a loss to Notre Dame. That loss to the Fighting Irish dropped Michigan to 7-15 ATS the last 22 times they've been a road favorite and we feel they're getting far too much respect from the betting markets in this match-up. This line has climbed from its opener and is now above the two TD mark (14.5 / 15) as of early Friday morning. Michigan is on a 1-4 ATS run in games played on grass. Northwestern is 3-0 ATS when off B2B straight-up losses and also 15-4 ATS their last 19 in Big Ten action. Excellent home dog value with the Wildcats. Grab the big points and look for the home team to hang tough in this Saturday afternoon match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Colorado Rockies Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Washington Nationals, Friday at 8:10 PM ET

The Rockies are 9-1 in Kyle Freeland's last 10 starts. In home starts Colorado is 12-2 in Freeland's 14 starts. The Rockies southpaw has a 2.36 ERA in those outings. Of course Colorado is in a big battle for a playoff spot and they're hosting a Washington team that has long been eliminated from post-season contention and that is 0-2 in games against the Rockies when Freeland is starting. Joe Ross got rocked for 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings in his lone career start versus Colorado. The Rockies are 7-0 in their last 7 games and all 7 wins came by 2 or more runs. That is why there is great value with the run line here. By laying the 1.5 runs the Rockies price is right around break even. The Nationals have lost both the starts that Ross has made this season. The Rockies are on a 37-22 run in games against teams with a winning record. Washington is just 18-26 this season in games against left-handed starters. Bet the Colorado Rockies on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Friday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +7.5 over LA Rams, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

The Vikings are now backed into a corner having lost last week to Buffalo and tied the week before vs Green Bay.  This is a much bigger game for Minnesota coming in with a 1-1-1 record.  The Vikes come into this one angry after a complete no-show last week at home vs Buffalo.  They became the first team since 1995 to lose outright as a 16-point or higher favorite.  A letdown was expected from Minnesota after an overtime tie with Green Bay a week earlier and this game with the Rams on deck.  The yardage vs Buffalo was dead even but Minny had 3 turnovers while the Bills didn’t turn the ball over.  Buffalo jumped out to a 24-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter which took Minnesota completely out of their offensive game plan.  They only ran the ball 6 times while attempting 55 passes.  The Rams are obviously very good but we feel they come in a bit overvalued after winning each of their first 3 games by double digits.  Remember two of those wins were against Oakland and Arizona who have combined to go 0-6.  The look ahead line on this game before the season began was the Rams -3.  Now we’re getting a full TD with one of the top teams in the NFL coming off an embarrassing loss.  They’re facing the Rams with both starting CB’s out and on top of that, Viking head coach Mike Zimmer is 11-2 ATS when off a loss and facing a non-NFC North foe.  Take the points here.

Miami Hurricanes (-) over North Carolina Tar Heels at 8 PM ET Thursday - The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these ACC foes. Even though Miami has Florida State on deck, the Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 ACC openers. The Canes have been very strong on defense this season and while the North Carolina defense has struggled badly. With the line opening as high as 21.5 and now down to as low as 17.5, there is additional value here as this one does have the makings of a home blowout. The Tar Heels finally got into the win column last week versus Pittsburgh so this is the perfect spot to fade them off of the home dog upset. Combined edges above of 13-2 (87%) ATS in favor of a play on the big home favorite here. Lay the points with Miami

ASA 8* PLAY ON Pittsburgh +2 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

This line originally had the Steelers favored by 2 to 2.5 and has swung all the way to Tampa favored by 2.  In all honesty we felt the Steelers favored by 2 was some OK line value.  That’s because the original look ahead line on this game before the season began had the Steelers -4.  Now that it’s swung to Tampa favored based on the first two weeks of results and perceptions of the two teams, we’ll side with Pittsburgh.  We understand that TB QB Fitzpatrick has played out of his mind in the first 2 games completing 78% of his passes with 8 TD’s but his past results tell us this probably won’t continue.  His lifetime NFL record as a starter is just 50 wins, 70 losses, and 1 tie and his career completion percentage is 60%.  If this Buccaneer offense slows down at all, which we believe it has to, they might be in trouble with a defense allowing 6.6 YPP (3rd worst in the NFL) and over 28 PPG.  The Pittsburgh offense is absolutely good enough to exploit that defense.  Now the Steeler is another issue as they are poor as well.  However much of that was facing a KC offense last week that has been ridiculously good.  This game is MUCH more important for the 0-1-1 Steelers (Tampa is 2-0).  They really can’t afford to be winless 3 weeks into the season.  Pitt isn’t as bad as many are making them out to be.  They tied Cleveland despite being -5 in turnovers for that game alone and the dominated the stat sheet in that game.  Then they lost a tight on 42-37 to a KC team that might be the hottest in the NFL right now.  We like the Steelers to pull the upset, if you want to call it that, tonight in Tampa.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago Cubs Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Chicago White Sox, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET

The Cubs are still trying to hold off the Brewers in the NL Central. Of course the White Sox would like to play the role of spoiler but this one sets up as a complete pitching mismatch. The Cubs Kyle Hendricks has allowed a total of only 7 earned runs in his last 6 starts and those outings have total nearly 39 innings! White Sox starter Carlos Rodon has been at the other end of the spectrum of late as he has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts and has had major issues with command of his pitches which has led to far too many walks. We get line value here by playing the run line with the Cubs as, at -1.5 runs, their price is in the -125 range. 7 of the Cubs last 8 road wins have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. As for the White Sox, 36 of their last 42 losses have come by 2 or more runs! This one has "road rout" written all over it. Bet the Chicago Cubs on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early afternoon action Sunday

ASA 8* PLAY ON Philadelphia -6.5 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We like the line value with the Eagles here.  Last week the Colts traveled to Washington (we had Colts) and pulled off the upset win 21-9.  The line in that game was Washington -6 which is the same line as we have on Sunday vs the Eagles.  Are the Skins the equal of the Eagles as this line would suggest?  The answer to that is a resounding no in our opinion.  We’re also getting the Super Bowl Champs off an upset loss last week in Tampa which adds to their motivation here.  Carson Wentz is back under center for Philly in this game and while he might be a little rusty early, we anticipate him having a very good game facing an Indy pas defense that is allowing opposing QB’s (Dalton & Smith) to complete 73% of their passes on the season (27th in the NFL).  Wentz also gives the Eagles the best chance to move the ball offensively as Foles has struggled a bit early in the year.  Wentz is 13-2 SU his last 15 starts and 12-3 ATS so he has definitely been a money maker.  Philly’s defense is among the best in the NFL and after shutting down a very good Atlanta offense to just 12 points, they had problems last week in Tampa.  We expect them to bounce back and play very well at home on Sunday.  The Super Bowl champs at home off a loss as a favorite facing a team off an upset win as an underdog sets up nicely.  Lay it.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -10 over Denver, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

The Broncos are easily the weakest 2-0 team in the NFL.  Their two wins have come against Seattle & Oakland by a combined 4 points.  Those two teams have yet to win a game and BOTH led Denver in the 4th quarter before the Broncos rallied for a tight win.  Now Denver has to travel to the east coast in their first road game of the year and they are a team that is 1-9 SU their last 10 road games.  Denver’s once vaunted defense looks like they have lost their luster.  Especially vs the pass where Oakland’s David Carr lit them up last week for 288 yards completing 29 of his 32 attempts.  A week earlier Russell Wilson threw for 298 yards and 3 TD’s on this Denver defense.  Now they face Joe Flacco who has thrown for 620 yards and 5 TD’s in his two games.  Expect a big day from him.  The Ravens are off a Thursday night loss @ Cincinnati so they have had extra time to get ready for this home game.  They actually outgained the Bengals in that game and despite their 1-1 record Baltimore is +268 in total yardage on the year.   Since 2003, undefeated teams that are underdogs of more than three points on the road are just 36-52-2 ATS (41%) against the spread.  Baltimore by a TD or more in this one.

ASA 8* PLAY ON San Francisco +7 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Lots of people jumping on the KC bandwagon after the first two weeks which is why this line is a bit out of whack in our opinion.  This line before the season kicked off was KC -2.5 and now it’s risen a full 4 points based on the first two weeks of the season.  That gives us some serious value on San Francisco in this game.  For comparison, the Niners were 6-point underdogs @ Minnesota in week 1 (lost by 8) and now they are getting more points from a Chiefs team that is not on the same level as the Vikings in our opinion.  The Chiefs are 2-0 with wins over the Chargers & Steelers, but they have been outgained by over 200 yards in those two games combined.  The Chiefs also rank DEAD LAST in the NFL in total defense allowing 508 YPG.  Young QB Patrick Mahomes has thrown 10 TD’s (so he’s on pace for 80?) and has yet to commit a turnover.  All of these fortunate circumstances simply cannot continue and KC is massively overvalued right now.  San Francisco comes in with a 1-1 record taking Minnesota to the wire on the road and they controlling Detroit in a game whose final score was very misleading – SF led 30-13 in the 4th quarter and won 30-27.  The Niners have a productive offense that is putting up 6 YPP and a QB (Garoppolo) that is solid.  They also have a defense that is allowing 123 YPG fewer than KC even though they’ve faced two very good offenses in Minnesota & Detroit.  We like San Francisco to keep this close at worst and win outright at best.  Take the points. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State Aggies (-) over Air Force Falcons, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET: Game #392

Air Force returned only 5 starters on offense and 6 starters on defense. That 6 became 5 when starting DB James Jones was lost for the season (ACL). Last season the Falcons went just 5-7 on the season as they returned only 6 starters total! That is why there has been a big drop-off in talent level and experience at Air Force as their three previous bowl seasons (2014 to 2016) saw them average 13 returning starters. Now the past two seasons, and with the loss of Jones, they've averaged 8 returning starters. This spells trouble against the revenge-minded Aggies here. Utah State has had this game circled as they have lost each of the last 3 meetings with Air Force and all 3 were very close games. Keep in mind, prior to this 3-game losing streak (each game decided by just a single score), the Aggies had won the two prior meetings (2013 and 2014) by an average margin of 25 points per game. We feel that, based on the disparity between these two teams this season coupled with the fact that this game is in Logan Utah, a blowout of similar proportion is on tap here! Utah State returned 18 starters this season and looks solid on both sides of the ball and they are particularly improved on the defensive side of the ball. Air Force is off of a bye last week but the Aggies have a bye week on deck so there is no real edge for the Falcons there. In fact, with how "out of sorts" that the Falcons were at Florida Atlantic two weeks ago (allowed 471 yards passing!) a bye week may not help matters as Air Force is seeking some consistency in their play and they don't have it right now. The Aggies threw for nearly 300 yards in last week's win and they did eclipse 300 passing yards at Michigan State in their season opener too. Also, the ground attack has averaged nearly 300 yards per game the past two weeks. Utah State's defense has looked much improved early this season and has the veteran experience to handle the Falcons option attack. Air Force is the only Mountain West team to beat the Aggies each of the last three seasons. That's right, not even Boise State has done that as Utah State upset them at Boise in 2015. The point being that head coach Chris Wells and the upperclassmen that are up and down this Aggies lineup are ready for their revenge here and they'll take advantage of a Falcons team that is heading for another down season just like last year. The Aggies already have benefited from 9 turnovers in 3 games this season and Utah State will continue be opportunistic on defense. This is all without linebacker Suli Tamaivena. Though the senior is still out the Aggies defense has filled in well in his absence and is loaded with upperclassmen. Lay the points and look for a home blowout in this Saturday night Mountain West match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Michigan State Spartans (-) over Indiana Hoosiers, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #317

The Spartans did win by 8 over the Hoosiers last year but this game still means plenty to them. Not only is it their Big Ten opener and not only are they off of a loss (at Arizona State prior to last week's bye), Michigan State did lose their last visit to Indiana. The Spartans were favored in that game and had won their prior visit to Indiana by a 39-point winning margin. Suffice to say the loss was unexpected and the Spartans will also be "more than ready" here as a result of the late-game collapse against the Sun Devils two weeks ago. Even though the Hoosiers are 3-0 SU this season they have played a much weaker schedule in comparison with 1-1 Michigan State. This is helping to add to the line value here. Now things toughen up for Indiana and they bring an ugly 6-12 SU mark (and 5-13 ATS) in Big Ten action into this game. The Spartans only have Central Michigan (a MAC team) on deck so they're certainly going to play hard for the full sixty minutes here - especially after blowing their prior game at ASU! One final ATS tightener here is that when Indiana is a Big Ten dog of less than 21 points, they've gone 3-20-2 ATS! We like those odds as the hungry Spartans make up for their last visit to Bloomington! We'll gladly lay the rather short number being offered in this Saturday evening Big Ten match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Clemson Tigers (-) over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #337

The key to success against the Yellow Jackets is stopping the option attack. Of course the Tigers are known for their defense but what has been especially impressive about Clemson's recent meetings with Georgia Tech is that they've been great against the Yellow Jackets ground game. Georgia Tech has been held to an average of just 121.3 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry in their last 3 meetings with the Tigers. For a team that relies on their rushing attack to move the ball, those are very poor numbers. That said, though Clemson won those 3 meetings by an average margin of 17 points per game, the victory margin easily could have been much more. On Saturday, we feel it absolutely will be much more! The Tigers have already faced two ground-based offenses (Furman and Georgia Southern) in the first three weeks of the season so they'll again be geared up for stopping the Yellow Jackets offense. The key to a blowout margin this season is the fact that the Jackets defense has allowed an average of 36.5 points per game the past two weeks and they now face a Tigers team averaging 38 points per game and over 500 yards of offense per game. While the Yellow Jackets have put up some impressive stats on offense this season, they now face one of the top defenses in the nation and a D that has been a nemesis for them for 3 years straight! Georgia Tech lost some key personnel from last year's defense and Clemson will exploit those holes just like South Florida did when the Bulls put up 49 points on the Yellow Jackets two weeks ago! Lay the points and look for a road rout in this Saturday afternoon match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago White Sox Run Line (+1.5 runs) vs Chicago Cubs, Friday at 4:05 PM ET

The White Sox, of course, are not going to the post-season. The Cubs, very likely, are going to the post-season but they are still in a battle for the Central Division title with the Brewers. That said, the cross-town rival Pale Hose would love nothing more than to prevent the Cubs from getting any closer to that NL Central title! The White Sox will be ready to go here Friday afternoon and they have a red hot Reynaldo Lopez on the mound. The ChiSox are 5-1 in his last 6 starts and the lone loss came by just a single run. That is another reason we like the value here of the +1.5 runs with the home dog. Lopez has allowed just 2 earned runs TOTAL on only 15 hits in the 27 innings spanning his last 4 starts! He has been piling up strikeouts and the Cubs have never faced it. Now, while it is also true that the White Sox hitters have not faced Cubs starter Jose Quintana, they do know plenty about him as he went to the Cubs from the White Sox last season! Of course Quintana would love to have a good start against his former team but Lopez is even hotter than Quintana right now and we love the home dog value in this match-up. The Cubs are only 6-6 in their last 12 games but 3 of those 6 wins came by just 1 runs so, at -1.5 runs, the Cubbies are just 3-9 their last 12 games! Bet the White Sox on the run line (+1.5 runs) in afternoon action Friday

Temple Owls (-) over Tulsa Golden Hurricane at 7:30 PM ET Thursday - Temple off of the big win at Maryland while Tulsa continues to struggle with too many turnovers on offense. Some strong angles support a play on the Owls here. The Golden Hurricane have gone 1-9 ATS when they an underdog versus a team with a losing record that is off of a SU win by 10 or more points. That system fits perfectly with Temple just 1-2 SU on the season but off of a blowout win over the Terrapins. Also, the Owls are 10-0 ATS when they are facing a team that is off of a SU loss as a favorite. Tulsa was favored last week but lost at home versus Arkansas State so that system is also set up perfectly here. We also like the fact that Temple is on a 7-1 ATS run in games against teams with a losing record while the Golden Hurricane have a 1-6 ATS mark in games against teams with a losing record. Long-term the Owls are on a 30-13 ATS run and we expect them to continue their run as a "covering machine" with a very manageable line posted on this Thursday night home game. Taking the best four systems / angles above it combines for a 32-3 (91%) mark in favor of the home favorite. Lay the points with Temple

ASA PLAY ON 9* Tampa Bay Rays Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Texas Rangers, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

This one has the makings of a complete mound mismatch. The Rays are 7-0 in Blake Snell's last 7 starts and all 7 wins have come by 2 or more runs. That is why, though we would never lay -200 on the money line, we're very comfortable laying the small juice on the run line here in a game where the likelihood of a win by 2 or more runs is strong. Snell is 7-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his 8 starts since the All Star break and he has held hitters to a .183 batting average on the season! As for the Rangers Yovani Gallardo, he has a 6.67 ERA on the season. Plus he has been especially bad under the lights! In evening games Gallardo has an 8.32 ERA and opponents have hit .319 against him. Surprisingly the Rangers have won a fair share of games with Gallardo on the mound but that hasn't been due to his pitching form! Also, Texas has lost 4 of his last 6 starts and all 4 defeats came by 2 or more runs. The Rangers, overall, are 3-8 their last 11 games and 7 of the 8 losses came by 2 or more runs. The Rays, overall, are 21-5 their last 26 games and 17 of the 21 wins came by 2 or more runs. All signs point to another big win tonight! Lay the 1.5 runs on the run line here and look for a road rout. Bet the Rays on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Tuesday

ASA 8* PLAY ON Indianapolis +6 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is an overreaction to week 1 game in our opinion.  The Skins are a middle of the pack type team that looked great last week @ Arizona.  They played a near perfect game in their 24-6 win dominating the stat sheet as well.  That result has now pushed this line higher than it should be in our opinion.  The Colts actually looked solid at home last week vs a now 2-0 Cincinnati team.  The final score was 34-23 in favor of the Bengals but the score was a bit misleading as Indy was down 27-23 late in the game driving for the winning score when Cincy returned a fumble 83 yards for the clincher.  The Colts actually had more yardage in that game as well.  That tight loss looks better as well after we saw Cincinnati handle Baltimore rather easily on Thursday night.  While the Colts do have some holes to fill on their roster, it’s quite obvious that having Andrew Luck back at QB makes a huge difference.  He was 39 for 53 for 319 yards last week.  On top of that, when Luck is starting QB, Colts are 23-5 SU / 22-6 ATS when coming off SU loss – if dog off SU loss Luck is 10-1 ATS.  We think this is a game that will go to the wire and the points are the way to go.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Philadelphia -3 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’re getting value with the Eagles here after TB opened the season with a shocker @ New Orleans last week.  Tampa won 48-40 as a 10-point dog.  Journeyman QB Fitzpatrick looked like Tom Brady throwing for 417 yards on just 21 completions (20 yards per completion!).  The Saints defense was simply atrocious last week allowing TB 8.5 yards per play.  Fitzpatrick is a journeyman for a reason.  He has some great games often followed up by a not so great game.  In fact, when Fitzpatrick comes off a win as an underdog, he is just 1-10 SU the following game.  He also had a lifetime record of 49-70-1 in his 120 career starts so let’s not overreact to the Bucs offensive output last week.  Plus now they run into one of the top defenses in the NFL who held a potent Atlanta offense to just 12 points in the opener.  Speaking of that game, it was the NFL opener last Thursday to the Eagles have had plenty of extra time to get ready for this one.  Philly will start Nick Foles at QB again this week as Carson Wentz isn’t quite ready.  That’s fine with us as we’ll take the Super Bowl winning QB from last year over Fitzpatrick any day.  The Eagles showed they could get it done on the road last year with a 6-2 SU & ATS record with their only outright losses coming @ Seattle and @ KC.  Getting the superior team, with the MUCH better defense, off extra rest, laying just a FG is a gift in our opinion.  Tampa comes back to earth this week and Philly wins by double digits. 

ASA 8* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -4 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is a huge game for Pitt at home after playing Cleveland to a tie last week.  That result was very deceiving as the Steelers outgained the Browns by 145 yards but were -5 in turnovers.  The fact that they were even able to pull off a tie was a near miracle based on the turnover margin.  KC is on the opposite end in this game.  They went out west and upset the Chargers 38-28.  However they were very fortunate just as Cleveland was.  KC was outgained by 180 yards but the Chiefs took advantage of a +2 turnover margin.  Now they travel east this week after going west last week.  Definitely a tough travel spot for Kansas City.  Pittsburgh has dominated this series as of late going 3-0 the last 2 seasons vs the Chiefs.  The Steelers won twice at KC and their home game vs KC was an easy 43-14 win.  Pitt has outgained the Chiefs 1265 to 835 in those 3 games.  Tomlin is 10-1 SU in home openers and the Steelers can’t afford a loss here and drop well behind Cincinnati whose already 2-0.  The Steelers cruise in this one.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10 PM ET: Game #205

Tremendous line value here. When you look at the fact that Washington was roughly a "pick'em" in their match-up against Auburn to open up the season and the fact that those same Tigers are now a double digit favorite this weekend over LSU, you can see why perceived value here with the Huskies in the 5-point range is certainly more than just perception! The point being that Utah is really not close to the level of the Tigers of Auburn and yet the pricing here is really not that much different. This has led to exceptional line value here on a Washington team that very nearly did (and arguably should of) beat Auburn in that season opening game in a "neutral" site game at Atlanta, Georgia. We like the fact that the Huskies returned most of their starters (including on defense) from last season's team while Utah lost most of their starters on defense. The Utes are 2-0 on the season but they've played two weak teams and they barely escaped at Northern Illinois last week. They had a late field goal and a interception return for a TD in a truly unimpressive 17-6 victory over the Huskies. They face much tougher "Huskies" this week and, unlike the Utes, Washington has already faced tougher competition by virtue of that season opener against Auburn. Being battle-tested by an SEC foe gives the Huskies an additional early season edge over a Utes team whose inexperienced defense is going to spell trouble for Utah fans as they won't be able to stop a potent Washington offense. The Huskies aerial attack, led by senior QB Jake Browning, will dominate here. Washington is on a 9-4 ATS run as road chalk in the PAC-12 and they are also 10-1 SU in their last 11 meetings with Utah. We see every reason to believe that the series dominance continues this weekend! Lay the points and look for a road rout in this Saturday night PAC-12 match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* TCU Horned Frogs (+) over Ohio State Buckeyes, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #204

This is a very skilled TCU offense and, as per usual, the Horned Frogs have a fantastic defense. We're getting line value here because everyone watched TCU "sleepwalk" through the first half of their game with SMU on Friday night last week. The betting public has seen that plus they've also seen Ohio State steamroll to big wins and ultra easy covers in the first two weeks of the season. The key though is that the Buckeyes were roughly a 5-touchdown favorite in each game and they are taking a major step up in level of opposing talent here. Of course Ohio State wants to win every game but one could certainly argue (and be correct in doing so) that this game means even more to TCU. This is absolutely the marquee game of their season outside of their Big 12 action and an upset of the Buckeyes would be huge for the Horned Frogs. We're not necessarily calling for the outright upset here but we certainly expect the Frogs to at least keep this one within 7 points. This game is at AT & T Stadium and of course the TCU campus is in nearby Fort Worth. Ohio State is off of a win over a Big Ten team and is only 6-11 ATS when off of a win in a conference game. TCU is a long-term 20-10 ATS when they are an underdog in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Ryan Day is still filling in on gamedays for coach Urban Meyer (final game of 3-game suspension) and, in addition to all of the factors note above, we also like the edge of Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson over Day in this one on the sidelines Saturday. Grab the points with the hungry underdog in this Saturday evening match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* LSU Tigers (+) over Auburn Tigers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #153

Revenge game for Auburn but, as is so often the case, the emphasis on revenge in the betting marketplace can lead to great value on the other side. Each of the last two meetings between these teams has been decided by 5 or less points. Also, 4 of the last 5 meetings at Auburn have been decided by a TD or less. LSU has had success (other than one blowout loss) at Auburn in recent years and we like the value as this line has crept up into double digits this week. Of course Auburn is a very strong team this season but they very nearly lost to Washington in Week One. Certainly Washington is also a very talented team but the point is that the line on that game was roughly a "pick'em" and now this one is double digits even though Auburn is facing an SEC foe known for giving them a lot of trouble. LSU's defense has done a great job early this season including forcing turnovers and of course they were dominant in that season opening win over Miami. As a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points, LSU has failed to cover just once in their last seven in that role! As a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points, Auburn is on a 2-8 ATS run. Additional big dog value here because last year Auburn blew a 20-point lead and lost to LSU. That means even if Auburn would jump in front in this game LSU has full confidence in their comeback abilities against this team and we expect their tough defense and solid ground game to keep this one close all the way. We'll gladly take the generous points being offered in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.

Georgia State Panthers (+) over Memphis Tigers at 7 PM ET Friday - With Georgia State off of an embarrassing loss at NC State everyone is jumping on Memphis here. That said, value has been created with the big dog as, keep in mind, the Tigers didn't exactly look sharp in their one point loss as a touchdown favorite at Navy last week. In weekday match-ups, Memphis is on a poor 1-7-1 ATS slide as a home favorite and the Tigers certainly are a pricey home favorite in this one. Also, Georgia State is 6-0 ATS when they are an underdog and facing an opponent that lost outright as a favorite in their prior game! The Panthers are also 6-0 ATS when they're facing a non-conference opponent that is off of a SU loss in their prior game. With this line up around 4 touchdowns the value is with the large underdog in this match-up that, just like the favorite, is looking for a better performance this week. Grab the big points with Georgia State

ASA PLAY ON 9* Oakland A's Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Baltimore Orioles, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

Oakland is a perfect 6-0 in Mike Fiers 6 starts since they acquired him from Detroit. Also, each of the last 4 wins have come by a victory margin of at least 2 runs. With Oakland a red hot 7-2 in their last 9 games and all 7 wins having come by a victory margin of no less than 2 runs, the A's are offering great value on the run line in this match-up. Of course Baltimore has been at the other end of the spectrum as their awful season simply can't end soon enough. Not only are the Orioles an ugly 1-8 in their 9 games heading into this match-up, 6 of the 8 losses have come by a margin of at least 2 runs. Baltimore will have Alex Cobb on the mound for this one. Though he has pitched a little better of late it is still hard to ignore the fact that, prior to winning Cobb's most recent home start, the O's were 0-9 this season in his starts at Camden Yards! Also, the Orioles bullpen is one of the worst in the majors while the A's bullpen is one of the best. Lay the 1.5 runs on the run line here and look for a road rout. Bet the A's on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Tuesday

ASA 8* PLAY ON Oakland +5 over LA Rams, Monday at 10:20 PM ET

We have a feeling this game is a meeting of underrated (Oakland) vs overrated (LA Rams) and the line reflects that in our opinion.  This line is Oakland +4 to +4.5 as we write this which means if this game was in LA the line would be Rams -11 or -12 which is ridiculous.  For perspective, the Rams were favored by more than 7.5 only once all last season (vs Houston late in the year after Texans had all their injuries and were getting creamed every week).  The Rams are have the lowest odds of any team in the NFC to reach the Super Bowl.  Talk about overreacting to last season.  Let’s not forget just 2 years ago the Rams were a bad team and couldn’t score (last in the NFL at 14 PPG).  Last year they took a monumental leap forward winning 11 games and leading the NFL in scoring at 29 PPG.  We expect some regression from them this season.  They may start slow as well with QB Goff and RB Gurley sitting out the entire pre-season.  We see this as a similar situation to Atlanta 2 years ago when the Falcons averaged a whopping 34 PPG and then came back to earth last year at 21 PPG.  The Raiders are sort of the flip side of the LA Rams.  Two years ago Oakland was a playoff team.  Last year injuries caught up to them including QB Carr who was banged up all year, and they won just 6 games.  We expect new coach Jon Gruden will have his team sky high here playing the underappreciated card.  Gruden is a very good tactician and his team will be prepared well.  This is no lower tier team we’re talking about here.  They have weapons offensively at WR & RB and Carr was great two years ago.  He’ll be much better this year, especially early in the season, while he stays healthy.  His offensive line was great in 2016 and underperformed last year so we expect them to be solid this year.  Monday Night underdogs in week 1 of the season are 34-16 ATS since 1980 and Monday Night HOME DOGS are 15-5 ATS in week 1 of the season.  We think Oakland has a great shot at the outright win here and a loss by a FG still gets us a cover.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Tampa Bays Run Line (+1.5 runs) vs Cleveland Indians, Monday at 7:10 PM ET

The Rays are one of the hottest teams inn baseball and are still mathematically alive in the wild card race. The Indians have very nearly clinched the AL Central Division and are very nearly locked in to being the #3 seed in the AL for this post-season. The point is that Tampa Bay is arguably the more motivated team here and we like them as a home dog in this spot. We also like the added value of the Rays on the run line at +1.5 runs. That way if TB loses a tight one by just a run we still cash our ticket and the current price (-130 range) makes it very economical to grab the Rays on the run line. The Indians are just 4-5 their last 9 games and one of those wins came by just a single run so they are only 3-6 their last 9 games on the run line at -1.5 runs. The Rays have won 7 of their last 8 games and their starter, Castillo, will only go an inning or two tonight but these "bullpen games" for Tampa have been very successful this season. Their bullpen arms are rested too after Chirinos gave them over 6 innings yesterday plus Snell gave them a great start on Friday. As for the Indians Kluber, he certainly has great numbers on the season but he is 9-7 in night games compared to 9-0 in day games this season. Also, he has a 3.67 ERA in road starts compared to a 2.05 ERA in home starts. The last time he started at Tropicana Field he gave up 3 earned runs and the Rays (other than one bad game at Toronto) have limited their opponents to just 2.6 runs per game in their other 8 games dating back to the last day of August. Look for a low scoring game where the +1.5 runs offers phenomenal value. Grab the run line here and look for a home dog upset. Bet the Rays on the run line (+1.5 runs) in early evening action Monday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas +3 over Carolina, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Carolina Panthers made some changes in the offseason and we’re not sure they were good ones. After ranking 24th in offensive efficiency in 2016, then moving up to 9th, the Panthers decided to bring in a new offensive coordinator? Carolina recycled longtime NFL coach Norv Turner but has the game evolved into something he’s not? Looking back we see Norv Turner’s last two offensive units in Minnesota ranked 25th or worse in total yards per game and before that his Browns offense finished 18th. The last year he was with the Chargers they were 31st. Last year the Panthers were 16th in total yards per game (average) and 9th in OEFF. We really don’t think this will be a good fit for QB Cam Newton either. The Panthers had a positive point differential last year at +1.8PPG. The Panthers defense was very good again last year finishing with our 9th ranked defensive efficiency unit while allowing just 21PPG. In the late stages of last season though this defensive unit faltered a little allowing 25.4PPG in their last seven contests. Dallas had a down season a year ago and a lot of that had to do with injuries and suspensions. The Cowboys were slightly better than the Panthers in total yards per game and 10th in OEFF. That was without RB Elliott for the first four games of the season. The Boys finished last season strong with wins in 3 of four games, scoring 30+ in two of those. In terms of DEFF the Cowboys ranked a poor 25th but also only allowed 20.1PPG which was top 10. Dallas is on a 6-1 ATS run on the road and we like a close game throughout.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State Spartans (-) over Arizona State Sun Devils, Saturday at 10:45 ET: Game #393

While Arizona State did get a big win last week it came against a UTSA team that is one of the most inexperienced in the nation this season. That said it was not a huge surprise that the Sun Devils won big in coach Herm Edwards debut. However, now Arizona State faces a much tougher opponent and we were looking for an early season spot to fade coach Edwards and this is it. Edwards has to be one of the most baffling coaching hires for a Power 5 conference in recent memory. He had been out of coaching for so long and away from the college game for even longer. That said, beating the Roadrunners is one thing but trying to avoid a bad loss at the hands of a ranked team that is one of the most experienced teams in the nation is another matter entirely. Michigan State was not overly impressive last week but Utah State is a quality opponent. We also like the fact that the Spartans have a bye week on deck. That said, though a late night game in the southwestern US heat may not be the most appealing for MSU, the fact is they are geared up and ready to leave it all on the field knowing their Big Ten opener is still two weeks away. Michigan State will be able to establish the run and that will open things up for QB Brian Lewerke whom is the type of mobile QB that gives defenses fits. The Sun Devils defense lost most of their starters from last season and that is bad news against a Spartans offense that returned nearly all of its starters from last year. This is a big play on a team (MSU) with plenty of continuity from last season and a big play against a team (ASU) that is going through a coaching change and still trying to install new schemes and adjust to a lot of new players in key roles as well. A weak team like the Roadrunners was unable to expose any of that due to the talent gap between the teams but Michigan State is going to exploit all of these Arizona State weaknesses in a huge way and we get line value since the Spartans are on the road and that is (as of Friday morning) keeping this line below a 7. Lay the points and expect a dominating road win in this Saturday late night match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Virginia Cavaliers (+) over Indiana Hoosiers, Saturday at 7:30 ET: Game #369

Rain is expected in Bloomington all day Saturday and particularly through the evening hours. We expect these conditions to maximize the importance of the ground game in this match-up and that gives a huge edge to the Cavaliers. Not only did Indiana have one of the worst rushing offenses in the nation last season, Virginia has a true dual-threat QB that will give the Hoosiers run defense some major problems Saturday. Signal-caller Bryce Perkins is the Cavs key weapon in this game as he can beat defenses with his legs and that was evident in Virginia's win over Richmond Saturday. Sure the Spiders are not a powerhouse football team but the Cavs were favored by 2 touchdowns and won by 4 TDs in a dominating effort that saw Perkins talents on full display. Though Indiana is also off of a week 1 win, the Hoosiers allowed 170 rushing yards in their win while the Cavs allowed just 34 yards on the ground! Cavaliers head coach Bronco Mendenhall is in his 3rd season now with Virginia and that is the year when a coach tends to be at the "tipping point" with a program where he gets them over the hump and we feel that is the case with this current Cavs team. In terms of technical support here, Indiana is on a 4-9 ATS run in home games while Virginia is on a 6-3 ATS run in September games under Mendenhall. We'll gladly take the available points as a road upset is likely in this Saturday evening match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Baylor Bears (-) over UTSA Roadrunners, Saturday at 7 ET: Game #349

Last season the Bears got embarrassed by losing at home to UTSA in a game in which Baylor was favored by double digits. Now it is time for payback. Baylor is stronger this season while the Roadrunners are much weaker and, in fact, are one of the most inexperienced teams in the nation coming into this season. That inexperienced had a lot to do with the Roadrunners getting blasted by 42 points last week in a game in which they were only a 17 point underdog. Things won't get any easier in this week as, even though UTSA is at home, they are hosting a Texas team that is happy to make the trip down to San Antonio for this road game. In fact you can expect plenty of Baylor fans to be in attendance for this game and this looks like a very down season for Roadrunners football after they lost nearly their entire offensive unit from last season. Also, the defensive was heavily impacted by graduation losses plus they have a new defensive coordinator as their prior one was grabbed by Alabama! The Runners will get better as the season goes on but lack of experience and all kinds of adjustments early in the season for this team on both sides of the ball means they don't have the cohesion to compete with a Power 5 team like Baylor that has revenge on its minds! The Roadrunners defense was shredded last week (including on the ground) and the Bears ran for nearly 300 yards last week plus threw for over 300. They are set at QB with both Brewer and McClendon both being very capable QBs. Baylor is 11-3 ATS in road games with a total set between 49.5 and 56 points. UTSA is 1-4 ATS in home games with a total set between 49.5 and 52 points. Lay the points and expect a road rout in this Saturday evening match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Buffalo Bulls (+) over Temple Owls, Saturday at 3:30 ET: Game #345

Many will be looking for a bounce back from Temple this week. But this is an Owls team that didn't just lose as a double digit favorite last week, they actually got beaten much worse than what the scoreboard showed. Temple lost by 2 points points to Villanova but it could (should!) of been much worse as the Wildcats outgained the Owls by 154 yards in that game! Though the most recent meeting was 2011 you can bet that the Bulls are aware of their recent history as they've lost the last two match-ups by a combined score of 76 to 0. Of course that was before Lance Leipold was the head coach at Buffalo. In fact, at that time he was still in the midst of a run that saw him win 5 championships with UW-Whitewater's Division III program. He is a fantastic coach that, now in his 4th season with the Bulls, has this Buffalo team poised to be a bowl team this year. That likely would have happened last season (6-6 year) were it not for QB injuries. The Bulls 6 losses last season came by a total of just 29 points and we like the value of the points being offered here in a game in which Buffalo (returning a lot of key experience) has a great shot at the outright upset on the road. Temple returned only 5 starters on each side of the ball and that showed in their loss to Villanova. Now they face a Bulls team that is confident after a blowout win in week one and is ready now for a signature road win. The Owls are on a 6-15 ATS run in games against MAC foes. Look for the Bulls to improve to 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they've been an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Grab the points with the road dog in this Saturday afternoon match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* SMU Mustangs (+) over TCU Horned Frogs, Friday at 8 ET: Game #302

The Horned Frogs are over-priced here plain and simple. The markets are over-adjusted here because TCU won huge in week 1 while SMU got thoroughly embarrassed in week 1. Keep in mind the Frogs played Southern University. Also, even though the Mustangs got crushed by a North Texas team that is on the rise, SMU did score well in the 4th quarter and it is that type of late game push that is likely to occur again here should TCU get a big lead. That is because the Horned Frogs have a huge game against Ohio State on deck. There is no doubt they're peeking ahead to the match-up. Also note that TCU is 1-4 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points while SMU was on a 7-2 ATS run in September games prior to the embarrassing loss to the Mean Green. They will make up for it here at home against their Dallas rivals! We're calling for the Mustangs to stay well within the three touchdown outlay here and to lose this one by no more than a range of 14 to 17 points! Grab the big points with SMU Friday evening

ASA 8* PLAY ON Atlanta +1.5 over Philadelphia, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

The sharps are moving this number Atlanta’s way and we agree with them.  This line opened at -4 in favor of Philly and is now below 3.  We still like the value here with Atlanta as these two met in the playoffs last season in Philadelphia and the Falcons were actually favored by 2 in that game.  The Eagles won the game 15-10 but Atlanta had the ball to the Philadelphia 2-yard line with 1:00 minute to go but were shut out on downs.  We expect the Atlanta offense to be much more productive as a whole this year.  Two years ago they averaged 34 PPG and dropped all the way to 21 PPG last year.  New offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian has now had a full season to acclimate himself to his personnel so Atlanta will score more this season.  The Falcons have some of the top skill position players in the NFL with QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones, and RB’s Tevin Coleman & Devante Freeman.  The defense stepped up and improved greatly last year finishing in the top 10 in both scoring defense and total defense.  We expect that unit to be very good again this year.  Philly will be starting Nick Foles at QB.  He stepped in for injured Carson Wentz last year and guided this team to the Super Bowl win over New England.  Keep in mind though, this team was led by Wentz for the vast majority of the season until his injury.  Foles only started 5 games, completed just 56% of his passes and had only 5 TD’s.  We commend him for stepping in and performing well, but we don’t trust him to continue that this year as the opening day starter.  For the most part Foles has been a career back up with one very good season in Philly as a full time starter way back in 2013.  He also has some injuries to some key weapons on offense as his top WR Alshon Jeffery will not play and top RB Jay Ajayi is banged up and questionable.  We rate these 2 teams fairly close but the QB edge goes to Atlanta with Wentz on the shelf.  Take the points. 

ASA PLAY ON 9* Cleveland Indians Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET

As a road underdog in a money line range of +175 to +250, the Royals are only 8-36 their last 44 and that is even after yesterday's surprising big dog upset win for Kansas City. Of course we're not going to lay a huge money line price here with the Indians but we're happy to only pay a price of about -110 and bet on Cleveland on the run line at -1.5 runs in this one. Royals starter Danny Duffy is 2-9 with a 5.79 ERA in his 14 career starts against the Indians. He has been crushed by Cleveland in his starts against them this season and that includes allowing 15 earned runs in 9 and 1/3 innings in the last two starts. The Indians Mike Clevinger is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA in his 7 career starts versus Kansas City. The right-hander has held the Royals down again this season and has compiled a 2.57 ERA in 3 starts and two of those were wins that each came by a multiple-run margin. 66 of the Royals 91 losses this season have come by at least a 2 run margin. 59 of the Indians 77 wins this season have come by at least two runs. You can see that the odds strongly favor a Cleveland win coming by at least 2 runs in this match-up. Lay the run line here and look for a home blowout. Bet the Indians on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Tuesday

ASA PLAY ON 9* California Golden Bears (-) over North Carolina Tar Heels, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #204

Though this is a revenge game for North Carolina, that is actually helping with the line value on this game. As of Thursday afternoon this line is being held right around a -7 on California and the fact is that the line should be much higher. While the Golden Bears return 17 starters and 56 lettermen from last year's team, the Tar Heels return only 12 starters and 10 fewer lettermen plus North Carolina has about a dozen players suspended for this game. On top of all that, this is the longest road trip (2,808 miles) in the history of the football program at UNC. The Tar Heels have had slow starts at the betting window as they've gone 3-6 ATS in September games the past two seasons. On the other side of the field, the Bears are known for dominating their home openers. They have won 14 of their last 16 and the average margin per win has been over 30 points. Also, the Bears do enter this game having gone 8-4 ATS in home games the past two seasons. We also like the fact that Cal head coach Justin Wilcox is a defensive-minded head coach and now in his second season with the Golden Bears. This is a team that will continue to show more and more improvement on that side of that ball as they are now in their 2nd year with Wilcox at the helm. On the other side of the ball the unit on offense returns 10 starters for this season and their offensive coordinator, Beau Baldwin, now in his 2nd season working together with Wilcox here, had previously led Eastern Washington to consistently ranking among the top scoring teams in the FCS ranks. This Cal team is built well (and coached well) on both sides of the ball and QB Ross Bowers picked apart the UNC defense for over 350 passing yards and 4 touchdowns in last year's match-up. We expect similar results this season. Lay the points as a home blowout is likely in this Saturday afternoon match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Texas Longhorns (-) over Maryland Terrapins, Saturday at Noon ET: Game #173

Not only did Maryland ruin the Longhorns season opener last year, it also was coach Tom Herman's first game as the head coach of Texas. Without a shadow of doubt, coach Herman and his troops have been getting geared up for this revenge game all summer long. Not only did Texas show improvement in their first season under Herman (went from 5 wins to 7), they are poised to show significant improvement in year two. The cycle trending upward is a big plus for the Longhorns while the Terrapins most definitely are at the other end of the spectrum. With an interim head coach (Matt Canada) due to DJ Durkin being put on paid administrative leave, the Terps have been having trouble with focus after the death of one of their teammates this summer and the continued investigation into the training programs under Durkin. Maryland already had concerns heading into this season as their defense returned only 4 starters from last year's team. This is a Terrapins team that wrapped up last season by losing 7 of their last 8 games. Maryland averaged scoring only 13 points per game in those 7 losses. If you can't score points it is hard to win and this is especially true when you have a defense that was one of the worst in the nation as they allowed 37 points per game last season. The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games away from home. Also, though this line is near the two TD mark, note that the Terrapins are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a double digit underdog! This one gets ugly quick and, with last year's result as extra motivation, coach Herman and company won't take their foot off of the gas in this one. Lay the big points with the revenge-minded road favorite in this very early Saturday match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* San Diego State Aztecs (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Friday at 9 ET: Game #149

As we have mentioned many times before, revenge is certainly an angle that can be over-used and/or improperly used. This certainly appears to be one of those cases. This line is over-inflated because Stanford lost at San Diego State last season. The Cardinal were a TD road favorite and lost by 3 points on a late TD score by the Aztecs. However, the game shouldn't have even been that close as San Diego State held a commanding edge in time of possession and yardage in the game. Now, because Stanford is at home and playing with revenge, the Cardinal are a two TD favorite here. The fact is that Rocky Long's team is a very dangerous underdog and is not being given the respect they should be by the betting markets. Adding to the value here is that the Cardinal have their Pac 12 opener (and also another revenge game) on deck against USC. The Trojans, in fact, handed Stanford their first loss of the year last season and the Cardinal have not forgotten that and can't help but peeking ahead a bit to next week's big showdown. While the Aztecs are a "group of 5" team and not a "power 5" team in terms of their home conference, this is still a true high-quality football program. San Diego has gone to a bowl now in 8 straight seasons (including 7 in a row under coach Long) and Long has a reputation as being a "cash cow" at the betting windows as an underdog. As for Stanford, there are some ugly ATS trends in play here. When playing in non-conference action and installed as a favorite of less than 30 points, the Cardinal are 1-7 ATS. Also, Stanford is 0-7 ATS when when they are a home favorite playing with revenge. The Aztecs went 4-0 ATS in non-conference action last season and we have combined ATS edges of 18-1 (95%) working in our favor for this one. We'll take it as, even if the Cardinal do manage to build a sizable lead they absolutely could get caught then looking ahead to the upcoming revenging showdown with USC. However, our prediction is that the Aztecs don't even need the backdoor here as they cover this one from start to finish! Grab the big points with the under-valued road dog in this one in late night Friday action.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+) over Colorado State Rams, Saturday at 7:30 ET: Game #293

The Rams are over-priced here plain and simple. The markets are over-adjusted here because Colorado State certainly has had Hawaii's number in recent meetings. The key to the value here is that both teams are replacing a lot of key personnel but the Rams are truly one of the least experienced teams in the nation. Will they still win this game at home? Of course we do expect that. But the fact is that Hawaii's new offensive schemes (quick pace "run and shoot" style) could give an inexperienced defense a lot of headaches. We feel the Warriors score plenty here and that keeps them well within the inflated number here. In terms of technical angles, Hawaii has failed to cover only twice in their last seven road games that had a total between 56.5 and 63 points. Also, the Warriors are a long-term 6-1 ATS in August games. Also, Colorado State has their annual rivalry game with Colorado coming up next week. When a big favorite has a big game on deck there is always a tendency to start peeking ahead to that match-up in the 2nd half of a game and that's when leads get whittled away. We're calling for Hawaii to stay well within the two touchdown outlay here and to lose this one by single digits! Grab the big points with Hawaii Saturday evening.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Tampa Bay Rays Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET

As a road underdog in a money line range of +175 to +250, the Royals are on a 7-35 run. Of course we're not going to lay a huge money line price here with the Rays but we're happy to only pay a price of about -125 and bet on Tampa Bay on the run line at -1.5 runs in this one. TB is 7-3 this season when off of a shutout win and also 9-4 this year when they are at home in a game with a posted total of 7 runs or less. Of course not many runs are expected here, as you can tell by the low posted total on this game, but we expect the Rays to do plenty of damage here. Kansas City's Glenn Sparkman has made 11 MLB appearances (just 1 start) and he is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA and, worst of all, a .356 batting average against in these outings. He will be no match for the Rays Blake Snell whom has (incredibly!) allowed 1 earned run or less in 11 of his last 13 starts! Also, when Tampa wins with him on the mound they tend to win large! 5 of their 6 home wins with Snell on the mound have come by a multiple-run margin. 63 of the Royals 87 losses this season have come by at least a 2 run margin. 41 of the Rays 64 wins this season have come by at least two runs. You can see that the odds strongly favor a Tampa Bay win coming by at least 2 runs in this match-up. Lay the run line here and look for a home blowout. Bet the Tampa Bay Rays on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Tuesday

ASA PLAY ON 9* New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET

Yankees have won 9 of their last 13 games and each of their last 7 wins have come by a margin of at least 2 runs. The Blue Jays have lost 20 of their last 33 games and all 20 of those losses have been defeats by a multiple-run margin! That means if you like the Yankees to win here you certainly can also like the strong odds (including 20 in a row!) that the win comes by two or more runs! By taking New York on the run line we only have to lay small juice (-125 range currently) and the Yankees J.A. Happ should dominate his former team. He is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA since coming to the Yankees. Toronto's Ryan Borucki should prove to be no match for Happ. The Blue Jays left-hander has been roughed for 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts and walked 7 batters while striking out just 3 in those two outings! Bet the New York Yankees on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early afternoon action Sunday

ASA PLAY ON 8* Buffalo +3.5 over Cleveland, Friday at 7:30 PM ET on NFL Network

Taking teams that lose in week 1 of the pre-season vs teams that won in week 1 has been a long time solid strategy.  Those teams that lose in week 1 are 100-58 ATS vs teams that win in week 1 dating way back to the 1994 season.  It’s a logical trend as teams that don’t have a win yet in the pre-season would be more apt to put a higher emphasis on winning the game.  That’s the case here with Buffalo losing at home to Carolina last week while Cleveland picked up a win @ the NY Giants.  We like the fact that Buffalo actually dominated Carolina statistically despite the loss.  The Bills racked up well over 400 total yards on 6.9 yards per play.  They put up nearly 100 yards more than Carolina.  Their QB’s (Peterman,  McCarron, and Allen) were solid completing 25 of their 39 pass attempts for 338 yards.  The Bills led 17-7 at half and blew the lead in the 28-23 loss.  You can bet they’ve emphasized closing strong after letting Carolina come from behind in the 2nd half last week.  After finishing 0-16 last year, the Browns really wanted to get a win in their NFLX opener and they did topping the Giants 20-10.  We could see a bit of a letdown here after getting that much wanted win last week.  In that game the Browns rushed for only 50 yards on 33 carries (1.5 YPC).  The Cleveland defense allowed the Giants to roll up 134 yards rushing on nearly 6 YPC.  That tells us the Browns lost the battle up front despite winning the game.  Cleveland also had 13 penalties for 141 yards which is a red flag (poorly coached team).  Let’s face it, while many expect Cleveland to be improved, the fact is this team has won just ONE game the last two seasons combined.  Now they are favored by a full FG plus vs a team that made the playoffs last year.  We like Buffalo to get the win here so we’ll grab the points. 

ASA PLAY ON 9* Texas Rangers Run Line (+1.5 runs) vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 8:10 PM ET

The Diamondbacks are off of a big road win yesterday but their .231 batting average away from home this season ranks them 14th out of the 15 National League teams. The Rangers are off of an ugly road loss in the Bronx yesterday but are now back home where their .446 slugging percentage ranks them 5th out of all 30 MLB teams. Texas had won 10 of their last 14 games before suffering back to back losses to wrap up their series with the Yankees. Bartolo Colon got the milestone win he had been waiting for (most wins ever by a Latin American born pitcher) in his most recent start. Though his recent start versus the Diamondbacks was a tough one, the majority of the runs came with two outs and he pitched better in that start at Arizona than what the stats show. Buoyed by the big win he got in his most recent home start, Colon comes up with another strong effort tonight against a lineup that is known for not traveling well. The Diamondbacks starter tonight will be Zack Greinke. Though he excels at home, Greinke's road ERA is more than a full run higher on the road compared to in Arizona this season and last season was similar as he went just 4-6 on the road. This season when he has pitched on the road in inter-league action he has allowed 18 baserunners in 12 and 1 / 3 innings. Those starts were at Oakland and in Anaheim. That said, Arlington is a much tougher place to pitch. Greinke allowed 4 earned runs the last time he pitched at Texas and the Rangers come into this homestand having averaged scoring 8.9 runs per game in the 7 games on their last homestand! We expect the Texas offense to continue their hot home hitting while the Dbacks bats fizzle on the road in this one. We're grabbing the run line for added value here as we can get +1.5 runs at little to no juice! Prior to yesterday's big Diamondbacks win, they had a record of 4-8 (at -1.5 runs) in their prior dozen games. Bet the Texas Rangers on the run line (+1.5 runs) in evening action Monday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET

The Rockies Chad Bettis recently returned from the disabled list and he had an awful outing in his first start since coming back. That home outing versus the Pirates continued his long-term struggles at home this season. Bettis has not registered a victory in any of his 8 starts this season at Coors Field and the right-hander has compiled a 9.73 ERA in those outings. The Dodgers got to him for 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work when they faced him at Colorado earlier this season. As for Los Angeles starter Rich Hill, the southpaw has allowed only 5 earned runs on just 13 hits while striking out 18 in the 16 and 2 / 3 innings over his last 3 starts versus the Rockies. Also, Hill enters this start in top current form as he has a 1.47 ERA in his last 3 starts and has surrendered only 12 hits in the 18 and 1 / 3 innings over those three outings. The Dodgers are 4-0 in his last 4 starts and all 4 victories came by at least two runs. While LA is a bit pricey on the money line in this game we can get value by backing Los Angeles on the run line in this one as they are in a "pick'em" price range at -1.5 runs. Considering 7 of the 9 losses the Rockies have with Bettis on the mound this season have come by 2 or more runs, we see strong odds that this one turns into a road rout decided by a multiple run margin. The Dodgers are 19-8 the last 27 times they entered a game off of a loss and also 5-2 the last 7 times they've entered a game off of consecutive losses. LA is also 13-6 in Sunday games this season while the Rockies are 6-12 on Sundays this year Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 runs) in afternoon action Sunday

ASA PLAY ON 9* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ San Diego Padres, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET

The Phillies have not been scoring well recently and that culminated in a shutout loss last night. The key to the value with tonight's pick is that Philadelphia has high probability of a bounce back at the plate considering they are facing Walter Lockett while, at the same time, the Phillies should get a dominating effort from their own starter. Aaron Nola has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and the Phillies are 15-4 in his last 19 starts. Nola has a 2.47 ERA on the season and the Padres are off of back to back wins but they've haven't managed to win 3 straight games in over two months! San Diego is 0-5 the last 5 times they've entered a game off of back to back wins. Also, 57 of the Padres 71 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. They send Lockett to the mound and the past 3 seasons just look at the opponents batting average at the AAA level: .319, .289, .280. The right-hander has struggled to retire minor league hitters so it is no big surprise that in his first three appearances at the MLB level (including two starts), Lockett is 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA and opponents are hitting .354 against him! The Phillies are off of back to back losses but only twice in the past two months have they had a losing streak of 3 or more games. Philadelphia is 11-6 in Saturday games this season.. The Phillies are also 31-19 this season when off of a loss. The Padres are 15-30 this season when off of a win and this one has the proper ingredients for a road rout blowout. Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Saturday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Texas Rangers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

Rangers starter Ariel Jurado has been a pleasant surprise in terms of his overall numbers but the fact is that he has only made 3 starts and only 1 was a bit shocking in terms of quality. Jurado recently held the defending world champion Astros to 1 run in 6 innings. However, in his other two starts he faced two bad teams (Orioles and White Sox) but allowed 6 earned runs on 12 hits and 4 walks in a total of only 9 and 2 / 3 frames. In other words, he was far from dominant and he hasn't recorded many strikeouts either. Additionally, Jurado had never pitched above the AA level of the minors before being called up by the Rangers! This is a guy that has been hit at a .270 level in the minors, never even pitched at AAA, struggled against the O's and Pale Hose, and now is pitching at Yankee Stadium tonight. We don't expect this to go well at all for Jurado. His Rangers teammates tend to hit well at home but they're a different team on the road and tonight they're facing a tough assignment too. The Yankees are starting J.A. Happ and the southpaw has a 1.23 ERA in his last 3 starts (1 being his Yankees debut) and the lefty also has a 1.89 ERA in going a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus the Rangers. Happ registered 9 strikeouts in 7 innings when he faced them in April and Texas is known for striking out far too much especially when on the road. Away from home, the Rangers batting average (.230) and strikeouts per game (10) ranks them near dead last in the majors in each category. Texas is 25-43 against teams with a winning record this season while the Yankees are 34-21 against teams with a losing record this season. 49 of the Rangers 65 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. 53 of the Yankees 71 wins this season have been by decided by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Great value here with the run line available at a very low price. Lay it! Bet the New York Yankees on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Thursday

ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago Cubs Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Kansas City Royals, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

The Royals lost yesterday at Minnesota and that dropped them to 3-8 in their last 11 games. Although Kansas City is back home for this inter-league series with the Cubs, that is not necessarily a positive for the downtrodden Royals. KC ranks dead-last in the majors with their home record of 15-37 easily putting them in the cellar in that department. Every other team in the American League and every team in the National League has at least 20 home wins this season. The Cubs newly acquired Cole Hamels rolled in his first start for Chicago and should enjoy great success again here. Hamels has allowed 0 earned runs on just 8 hits in the 14 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals counter with a struggling Jake Junis. The Kansas City right-hander has allowed 11 runs (7 earned) in the 10 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts. Junis won his most recent start despite not being very effective and that was his first win since May 18th! He is 3-7 with a 5.37 ERA at home this season while Hamels is 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA on the road this year. The Royals are 0-10 the last 10 times they've been a home dog of +175 or more on the money line. We like the value on the run line here with the Cubs available at a very fair price (130 range) by laying the 1.5 runs. Of the Cubs 29 road wins this season, an astonishing 27 have come by 2 or more runs! Look for yet another road rout here as Chicago's lineup responds off of a loss yesterday plus the Cubs have a huge pitching edge here. Bet the Chicago Cubs on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Monday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland A's Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Detroit Tigers, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

Since the All Star break the Tigers are dead last in the majors with a paltry .315 slugging percentage. Conversely, the A's are near the top of the majors with a .481 slugging percentage since the All Star break. Oakland is a red hot 32-10 their last 42 games. The Tigers, on the other hand, are 11-27 their last 38 games. Clearly this is a case of two teams going opposite directions right now and the A's current 5-game winning streak is the best in the majors. Also, Detroit is 2-17 this season in road games where their money line ranges from +175 to +250. Oakland is a fantastic 37-11 this season in games against teams with a losing record! The Tigers are starting Francisco Liriano and he has a 9.90 ERA in his last 3 starts. The A's are starting Trevor Cahill and the right-hander has loved pitched at home this season! Cahill has a superb 1.13 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his home starts this season. While Cahill can be expected to dominate at home, note that Liriano went 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA on the road in 2016 and 1-3 with a 7.79 ERA on the road in 2017. Couple this with his recent struggles and you can see why a home blowout is expected here. While the money line is big in this game, the run line allows you to lay a price of only about -120 and certainly we look for the A's win to come by a margin of 2 or more runs today. Bet Oakland on the run line (-1.5 runs) in late afternoon action Sunday

NOTE: Pitching change for Mariners as they are now going with Roenis Elias. We are still sticking with this play as we like the 90% edge factor with the Giants Suarez and we like the fact that the Mariners Elias is making his first MLB start since 2016. He has not been a regular MLB starter since 2015. Elias enters this start having gone only 2-4 with a 4.94 ERA in his 7 games (6 starts) with Tacoma at the AAA level of the minors. ASA PLAY ON 9* San Francisco Giants Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ Seattle Mariners, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET

Andrew Suarez gets the start for the Giants here and he allowed 4 earned runs despite allowing only 4 hits in his most recent start. The fact is that the San Francisco southpaw has certainly been on top of his game for many weeks now. In fact, that was the first time in his last 7 starts that he allowed more than 2 earned runs in an outing. Heading into that start Suarez had compiled a 2.00 ERA in his 6 priors starts. Also, that loss (by a 4-run margin) in his start broke a 9-game Suarez start streak in which the Giants either won the game or lost by just a single run. This is certainly a factor in why we like the run line so much in this match-up. It is a very fair price to lay (about -130) to have the Giants at +1.5 runs in this match-up and had you played San Francisco at +1.5 runs in each of the 9 starts Suarez made prior to the loss versus Oakland, you would have compiled a perfect 9-0 record! The Mariners will struggle to win this game let alone to get any type of margin. Suarez has given up only 51 hits in the 57 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last 10 starts. Seattle has a solid southpaw on the mound too but James Paxton is returning from the disabled list after having lower back issues. Since June 15th, Paxton has made 6 starts and certainly 2 of those were very impressive. However, in the other 4 outings the Mariners lefty compiled a 9.60 ERA. In his last 10 starts only one was an M's win by more than a single run. Remember only 1 of the last 10 Suarez starts has resulted in a Giants loss by more than a single run. That is why this is a double 90% edge factor favoring a strong play on the road dog. Bet San Francisco on the run line (+1.5 runs) in late night action Tuesday

ASA PLAY ON 9* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs San Diego Padres, Sunday at 6:05 PM ET - Game TWO of double header

The Padres, entering Sunday's double-header, have lost 6 straight games. 26 of San Diego's last 30 losses have been defeats by at least a margin of 2 runs. The Phillies are a pricey favorite on the money line in Game 2 of the double-header Sunday but are available at plus money on the run line. We'll invest with Philadelphia and lay the -1.5 runs as the Phillies are not only the much better team in this match-up, they also have a huge pitching edge. Vincent Velasquez gets the call for the Phils here and he has given up 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. The Philadelphia right-hander has a 1.93 ERA in his last 3 starts. He rates a big edge over Luis Perdomo of the Padres. The San Diego right-hander is 1-4 this season with a 7.55 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP. The Padres have lost 6 of his 7 starts and all 6 defeats were by 2 or more runs. The Phillies have won 13 of their last 19 games and 6 of their last 8 wins have come by 2 or more runs. The average margin of victory in those 8 games was 4 runs! This looks like another blowout here as one of Velasquez all time best starts came in his lone start versus the Padres in his career. He pitched a complete game shutout and allowed only 3 hits while striking out 16. We expect another dominating performance here. Bet Philadelphia on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action (Game TWO of double header) Sunday

ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET

Massive pitching edge for the Dodgers here and this one is destined to turn into a road rout. Clayton Kershaw gets the call for the Dodgers and he truly had just one "mistake pitch" in his most recent start and that resulted in a 3-run homer. However, the Dodgers still hung on for the 5-3 win in that game and, overall, it was another quality start for Kershaw. The left-hander has a 2.63 ERA in his last 7 starts. LA is 4-1 in his last 5 starts and all 5 of those games were decided by 2 or more runs. Instead of laying a sizable price here on the money line, we're grabbing the run line and laying the 1.5 runs with some shops having this available at no juice as of early game-day morning. The Brewers have struggled against Kershaw in recent seasons as he has a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts versus Milwaukee while registering 33 strikeouts in 23 and 1 / 3 innings! The Brewers will have Chase Anderson on the mound for this one. Although the right-hander has a low ERA in recent starts, he has been fortunate as he has allowed 14 hits (including 2 homers) in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. On the season Anderson has a 4.83 ERA in starts at Miller Park. Also, the Dodgers have hit him very hard in recent meetings. Anderson has given up 15 runs (14 earned) in the 11 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus Los Angeles. His WHIP in those starts is 2.38 and when a pitcher is giving up nearly 2.5 baserunners per inning it does not take long to get into big trouble! LA has won 11 of their last 15 games and 40 of the Dodgers 54 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Brewers, on the other hand, have lost 7 straight games! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET

Massive pitching edge for the Dodgers here and this one is destined to turn into a home blowout. Clayton Kershaw gets the call for the Dodgers and he has a 1.44 ERA in his 4 day game starts this season and the southpaw went 12-3 with a 1.95 ERA in his day game starts the past 3 seasons combined! Not only does he love pitching in afternoon action, Kershaw has thrived at home as he went 28-6 with a 1.81 ERA in starts at Dodger Stadium the past 3 seasons and he has a strong 2.85 ERA in limited action at home this season. The Angels have struggled against him in recent seasons and have not seen him yet this season which is a big edge for the Dodgers here considering their lineup just faced the Angels Deck McGuire in his most recent start on the 7th of this month. Note that Kershaw has a 0.82 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Angels. As for McGuire, though he had a successful 3-inning stint versus the Dodgers a week ago, he is likely to struggle against them here as they get a quick 2nd look at him plus now McGuire is away from home. McGuire has pitched in 6 road games in his career (3 of those were starts) and he has a 6.64 ERA away from home in his career! Opponents are hitting .302 against him in road games this season. The Angels got the win over the Dodgers yesterday but had previously lost 14 of their last 18 road games! Also, the Angels are just 9-17 this season against left-handed starters and also are only 14-25 this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Dodgers are 10-5 this season in Sunday games and were 19-9 their last 28 home games prior to getting upset yesterday. Thanks to a huge pitching edge with Kershaw over McGuire, the Dodgers bounce right back in a big way today on Sunday! 38 of the Dodgers 52 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. 37 of the Angels 47 losses this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 runs) in late afternoon action Sunday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET

Though both of these starters have stumbled recently, there is reason to believe that J.A. Happ's struggles continue while David Price gets back on track. For starters, Price's struggles have been on the road in his last two outings. In terms of his home starts, the Boston left-hander has made 4 starts at Fenway Park in the months of May and June and he held the opposition to 2 earned runs or less in every single start. Also, he has dominated the Blue Jays throughout his career. Price has gone 19-3 with a 2.46 ERA in his career outings versus Toronto! As for the Jays Happ, the trade deadline has been approaching and with rumors flying about the southpaw it seems to have impacted him greatly. In his last two starts the Toronto left-hander has been rocked for 13 earned runs in 8 and 1 / 3 innings! Also, he is facing a Red Sox team that has won 9 straight games and averaged scoring 8 runs per game in their last 8 wins! Those 8 wins have all come by a margin of 2 runs or more and that is why we're comfortable with the run line (-1.5 runs) on Boston in this one. Toronto has lost 6 of its last 9 games and they've been held to a scoring average of just 2.8 runs per game in those 6 losses. 16 of the Blue Jays last 21 losses have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Jays are a horrible 11-21 versus left-handed starters this season. The Red Sox are 29-12 in divisional games this season and they stay red hot here. Bet Boston on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Thursday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Houston Astros Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

Gerrit Cole gets the start for the Astros. He is having a huge resurgence this season with Houston and the Astros have gone 14-3 in his starts this season including 3-0 when Cole has started versus the Rangers. The right-hander has completely handcuffed Texas as he has struck out 33 while allowing just 8 hits in 20 innings of work! That makes this game likely to end up as a complete mismatch as the Rangers counter with Mike Minor. The southpaw has pitched well in his last few starts but those weren't against Houston and, the fact is, the Astros have had his number this season. Minor has a 5.74 ERA in his 3 starts against Houston this year. Only 4 of the Rangers last 18 games have been one-run games so there is good support for value with the run line in this one. The game is likely to be decided by 2 or more runs and certainly, the way Cole has pitched against Texas, it should be the Astros coming out on top. 39 of Houston's last 46 wins have come by 2 runs or more so you can see why we're expecting a road rout in this one. Bet Houston on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Wednesday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Milwaukee Brewers Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET

The Brewers are off of back to back losses (Saturday and Sunday) and were off Monday. They're certainly ready to go here and Milwaukee had won 6 of their last 9 before the back to back losses. 25 of the Brewers last 38 wins have come by two runs or more and they offer great value here at a small price by taking them on the run line -1.5 runs. Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta has a 2.30 ERA and has allowed only 6 hits while striking out 25 in the 15 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his first 3 starts this season. The Royals Jake Junis is at the other end of the spectrum and has gone 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in his last 3 starts. Kansas City is off of a win yesterday but they are still just 3-17 in their last 20 games. It was a rare shutout win for the Royals and they are 0-5 this season when off of a shutout victory. Their anemic offense has played a huge role in having an awful June and KC's struggles at the plate are likely to continue against a tough hurler in this one. The Brewers are 5-1 the last 6 times they've been a home favorite in a range of -175 to -250 and, as you can see per the above, there is plenty of support for expecting this win to come by 2 or more runs! Bet Milwaukee on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Tuesday.