ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) over Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Astros are positioned well to avoid a sweep at the hands of a divisional foe that is quickly closing the gap at the top of the AL West. The A's are starting lefty Brian Anderson. That certainly holds some significance here as Houston is 25-8 this season against left-handed starters. The Astros are starting the recently acquired Zack Greinke and he is 12-4 with a 2.91 ERA this season. Greinke has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his first two starts with Houston. That extends his streak to 5 straight starts with 2 or less earned runs given up. Greinke should enjoy the benefit of plenty of run support in this one as the Astros have a slugging percentage of .517 against southpaws this season. This ranks Houston #2 out of the 30 MLB clubs in that category for this season. The A's Anderson has been better on the road and better in night games this season. That being said, an afternoon home game is not likely to lead to success for the lefty. He has a 4.65 ERA and a .286 BAA in home games this season and a 5.53 ERA and .319 BAA in day games this year. The Astros are in the -175 range on the money line here but a pick range (-110) on the run line. This is where the value is given the above stats as you can see why our computer math model is calling for a road rout here. Greinke and the Astros rate a big edge over Anderson and the A's given all the above factors. Bet the Astros -1.5 runs in late afternoon action Sunday

ASA 8* NFLX PLAY ON Baltimore -4 over Green Bay, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET

These two are both 1-0 in the pre-season but they reached that result in drastically different ways.  Baltimore absolutely dominated Jacksonville shutting out the Jags 29-0.  The Raven defense, who led the league in total defense last year, held the Jags offense to just 112 total yards on 2.1 yards per play.  Baltimore’s defense is deep and played well throughout as Jacksonville crossed midfield just ONCE the entire game and that was just barely making it to the Raven’s 49-yard line.  Offensive QB Lamar Jackson looked very comfortable leading the Ravens to 10 points in 3 possessions.  Look for Jackson and the starters to play into the 2nd quarter this week.  Green Bay also picked up a win last week vs Houston.  However, it was far from dominating as the Packers won 28-26 but were outgained by the Texans 412 to 237.  Green Bay benefitted from 4 Houston turnovers including a muffed punt for a TD.  The Pack scored 4 TD’s however 2 of those came on a fumble recovery as noted above and another came on a 3-yard drive after a turnover.  Aaron Rodgers will make his preseason debut here but only expect a few series.  He’s also running a brand new offense under head coach Matt LaFleur so don’t expect everything to go smoothly as he learns the system.  Baltimore is the deeper team, especially on defense, and we know they want to win this game.  Head coach John Harbaugh has proven the preseason is important to him as the Ravens have won 14 straight preseason games under Harbaugh!  8 of those 14 wins have come by at least 9 points.  They get another here.  Lay the points with the host in this one.

ASA play on: New Orleans Saints (-2.5) over Minnesota Vikings, Friday 8PM ET – The handle on this game is certainly backing the Vikings as more tickets and money have flowed in on Minnesota. But we are contrarian here and will side with the home team Saints. In our opinion the biggest factor that favors the Saints is the quarterback rotation as former Vike Teddy Bridgewater will play a large portion of this game and then be followed by Taysom Hill. Bridgewater is a former starter and pro bowl players and should have plenty of success against the Vikings #2’s. Hill has some great preseason statistics and we won’t see a drastic drop-off when he enters the game. The same can’t be said for the Vikings who lack QB depth at this time and will give Sean Mannion, Kyle Sloter and Jake Browning the opportunity to win the back up job. The Viking struggled with their O-line a year ago and have made some changes up front which will take time to mesh as a unit. Minnesota was 18th in offensive efficiency a year ago and won’t be ready until the opener. The same can’t be said about the Saints offense that is deep and coming off a season where they ranked 4th overall in OEFF. Overall the Vikings were a better defensive unit than the Saints a year ago, but the separation isn’t drastic as Minnesota ranked 4th in DEFF, the Saints were 11th. Minnesota has some solid exhibition records under Zimmer but the offensive edge for the Saints later in this game is too much to overlook. Fade the public and bet New Orleans.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET

The White Sox entered this series having lost 4 straight games and 8 of their last 9 games. All 8 of those losses came by two or more runs which is why we're taking advantage of the Phillies run line -1.5 runs being available in the -130 range for this one. Philadelphia has a huge pitching edge in this one as Aaron Nola will be facing Chicago's Ross Detwiler.. The Phillies Nola has been charged with only 1 loss in his past 8 starts and he has compiled a 1.99 ERA along the way in those 8 outings. Detwiler has certainly been at the other end of the spectrum. Not only has he struggled this season, particularly on the road, the White Sox lefty has struggled ever since the 2015 season. His ERA from 2015 through 2019 is a 6.57 ERA. Detwiler will be facing a Phillies team that entered this series having won 8 of its past 12 games. Philadelphia's last 4 wins came by a combined margin of 19 runs and all 4 games were decided by 2 or more runs. Detwiler is no match for Nola and the slumping White Sox simply can't match the Phillies bats here. The Phillies have averaged scoring 6.2 runs in the 5-game stretch preceding this series. Chicago has averaged scoring only 1.8 runs per game in the 9-game stretch that has seen them go 1-8. Given all of the above factors, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for a dominating home win here. Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in evening action Saturday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Texas Rangers (-1.5 runs) over Detroit Tigers, Friday at 8:05 PM ET

Detroit and Texas each were off yesterday. The Tigers are an incredibly bad 22-64 (including 3-16 this season) against AL West opponents. Detroit also is a horrible 13-43 in night games this season. Of course this is a big part of the reason that the Rangers are such a huge favorite on the money line in this game. While we would never lay those types of prices (-250) on a game, we're happy to grab the run line here as the Rangers are available in the -140 range at -1.5 runs. Will the Tigers lose by 2 or more runs? Note that 59 of Detroit's 72 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. Texas has Lance Lynn on the mound for this one and he is 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA in his last 17 starts. He completed at least 6 innings in all 17 of those outings! The Tigers start rookie southpaw Tyler Alexander here. His first two starts went well but then he faced a tough lineup in his 3rd MLB start and got crushed by the Mariners. Alexander faces another tough match-up here as the Rangers are one of the top hitting teams in the majors when at home. As for the Tigers, they are one of the worst hitting teams in the majors this season. 39 of the Rangers 54 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs and we like the odds here as they are favoring a huge home win. 17 of the Rangers last 21 wins have come by 2+ runs. Texas is also 4-0 in their last 4 games against Detroit (those were on the road) and also 5-1 the last 6 times they have hosted the Tigers. Bet the Rangers -1.5 runs in evening action Friday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) over Cleveland Indians, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET

After getting blasted 10-4 in yesterday's game the Astros are in full-on bounce back mode on Thursday. With Gerrit Cole on the mound and opposed by a pitcher on a strict pitch count and making his first MLB start since 2017, this one is likely to turn into a road rout. Of course the likelihood of a Houston win here is why they are a big favorite on the money line. With that being said, where we get the value here is on the run line as the Astros are available in the -120 price range by laying the 1.5 runs. Cole is in phenomenal current form and also has revenge here against the Indians after a tough hard-luck loss suffered at the hands of Cleveland earlier this season. Cole enters this outing having allowed 1 earned run or less in 7 of his last 8 starts. Also, he has gone at least 7 innings in 5 of his last 6 starts. Cleveland's Danny Salazar is returning from major injury issues. He will be limited to, very likely, 70 pitches at most in this one. Though he has pitched well in the minors during his rehab and also piled up the strikeouts there, Salazar is facing a tough lineup in this match-up. Of course major league hitters are much better at making contact with the "swing and miss" stuff that Salazar displayed at the minor league level. The Astros slugging percentage on the road this season ranks them 3rd in the majors! The Indians batting average at home ranks them a poor 13th out the 15 American League teams. Both teams have strong bullpens but the Cleveland pen will be asked to do too much here with Salazar's early exit expected. Cole dominates again and Houston rolls to a win by a multiple-run margin. The Astros, as a road favorite of -175 or more, are a long-term 37-14. That is worthy of note here because 35 of the Indians 44 losses this season have been by a margin of 2+ runs. Also, 51 of Houston's 69 wins this season have been by a margin of at least two runs! Bet the Astros -1.5 runs in early evening action Thursday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: New York Yankees (+1.5 runs) over New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET

The Yankees have gotten crushed so far in this series so everyone is pounding the Red Sox in this Sunday night match-up because of that factor as well as the fact that Chris Sale is on the mound. This has led to exceptional line value with the Yankees on the run line at +1.5 runs. There are very few times you will ever see a strong team with a strong pitcher on the mound getting +1.5 runs at a pick price (-110) but that is the case here. The fact that the Yankees Domingo German is off a season-worst start actually makes this play on the road dog even stronger. Prior to that rough outing German had gone 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA since coming off the injured list early in July. The fact is German is 12-2 this season and opponents are hitting just .227 against him. As for Boston's Chris Sale, many felt he should have come out of his last start prior to the 6th inning but manager Alex Cora sent him back out there and he threw 116 pitches in that game. Granted it was a strong start for the Red Sox southpaw but that was a season high for him in pitches thrown. Now Sale faces a Yankees team that hasn't been kind to him this season. Sale is 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA versus the Bronx Bombers this year. Sale's most recent road start and most recent home start were each successful. However, prior to that Sale allowed 5 earned runs in 3 straight outings! Plain and simple, Sale and the Red Sox are overpriced here and our computer math model has the majority of simulations on the outcome of this game reflecting either an outright upset or a one-run loss for New York. That means strong odds with grabbing the 1.5 runs on the road dog here! Bet the Yankees +1.5 runs in early evening action Sunday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cleveland Indians (-1.5 runs) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET

The Indians Mike Clevinger has been dominating while the Royals Glenn Sparkman continues to struggle! With yesterday's dominating win Cleveland is 19 games over .500 this season while Kansas City is 27 games under .500 on the season. In terms of bullpens, the Indians 3.27 ERA ranks #1 in the majors while the Royals bullpen ranks in the bottom third of the majors for ERA and very near rock bottom for batting average allowed. As for the starting pitchers here, Clevinger has a 1.88 ERA in his 4 July starts. Also, Clevinger has allowed a TOTAL of only 8 earned runs in his last 7 starts against the Royals and he did go at least 6 innings in all 7 of those outings. He has dominated KC to say the least! As for Royals starter Sparkman, he has allowed 9 earned runs in his last two starts against the Indians and did not finish the 6th inning in either outing. Overall, Sparkman has had but one good start in his last 5 outings! In the other 4 starts the Royals right-hander has allowed 21 earned runs in 20 and 1 / 3 innings. Given all of the above it comes as no surprise that the forecast here, per our computer math model, is an absolute road rout! Bet the Indians -1.5 runs in early evening action Saturday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over Washington Nationals, Friday at 7:05 PM ET

Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the start for the Dodgers here. Los Angeles is off back to back losses which is rare. Look for this road trip to get the Dodgers re-focused and rolling again. LA is a fantastic 18-4 this season when they enter a match-up after 5 or more consecutive home games. Not only that, their record when Ryu is pitching is phenomenal! The Dodgers are 11-2 in the last 13 starts he has made. On the season Ryu is 11-2 and he has been amazingly consistent. Ryu has allowed just ONE earned run or less in 11 of his last 14 starts! The Los Angeles left-hander has been superb in his 4 career starts against Washington as he has a 1.35 ERA over 26 and 2 / 3 innings! Ryu will be opposed by the Nationals Anibal Sanchez. The Washington right-hander has pitched a little better of late but he has still been far from overpowering! In July his strikeouts are down and he has a 4.91 ERA in his two starts since the all star break. Also, Sanchez is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Dodgers and that includes getting rocked by the Dodgers. That is the expectation here and that is why this play is on the run line. We avoid laying the big money line price and instead get nearly an even money price on LA by making use of the run line (-1.5 runs) in this one. Bet LA Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET

The Braves are off a tight 1-run home loss to the Royals yesterday. That sets this one up well for a bounce back spot as Atlanta is a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times they were off a home loss. Also, the Braves have a huge pitching edge here. Kansas City's Brad Keller has a low ERA in his July starts but he has been hit hard in both road outings. The point is that Keller has been playing with fire and he has been lucky that he has escaped jams and hasn't been burned. In road outings, Keller has been in consistent trouble in 6 of the last 7. Taking away the lone good outing, the other 6 away from home for Keller have seen him allow 45 hits in 30 and 2 / 3 innings. Keller's most recent start was at home and he allowed only 2 earned runs but he gave up 9 hits in 6 and 1 / 3 innings. In his most recent road start Keller walked 5 in 5 and 2 / 3 innings. Again, the theme with Keller is constantly pitching himself into jams and the Braves have the potent lineup to make him pay. In fact, Atlanta has scored more runs at home than any other team in the National League. As for Kansas City, their road offense has them mired at the bottom of the AL rankings with other bad teams like the White Sox, Tigers, and Orioles. The Braves also have a big bullpen edge as they rank in the top 8 teams in the majors for bullpen ERA while the Royals relief pitching has been hit at a .273 clip this season which ranks them dead last (#30) out of all teams in the majors. KC was outhit 11-5 yesterday and yet still won the game 5-4. We don't see them being so lucky today. The Braves Julio Teheran is back in top form as he has a 1.53 ERA in the month of July and opponents are hitting only .190 against him this month. The Royals were 15-35 this season on the road before eking out yesterday's win. Lightning won't strike twice! Kansas City's losing ways resume tonight and note that 47 of KC's 64 losses this season have been defeats by a multiple run margin. Per our computer math model, the Braves roll at home in this one! Bet Atlanta -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cleveland Indians (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 7:07 PM ET

With another win yesterday Cleveland has now won 13 of 16 games. Of course that is a big part of the reason they are sizable money line favorites on the road at Toronto in this series opener Monday. . Where the value lies with this one is the run line as we can reduce the lay amount to right around a "pick" price by laying the 1.5 runs with Cleveland. The Indians hold big edges here as, even though this game is at Toronto, the Blue Jays are 18-30 at home this season. Out of all 30 MLB teams there are only 2 (Detroit and Baltimore) that have fewer home wins than Toronto. The Indians enter this series having won 11 of their last 15 road games. The Jays are starting Ryan Borucki. The lefty is making his first start of the season after being sidelined with an injury during spring training. In his most recent rehab starts in the minors (at the AAA level) he was hit quite hard (including the long ball 3 times in 2 starts) and now Borucki faces an Indians lineup that has been surging (6 runs scored per game) during their 13-3 run. Unlike the red hot Indians, the Blue Jays have lost 9 of their last 14 games. Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Indians and he should keep Toronto cold as he has dominated of late. Clevinger has allowed a total of just 2 earned runs in 17 innings in his last 3 starts. The Indians also hold the bullpen edge in this match-up as their 3.26 ERA ranks #1 out of all 30 teams. Bet Cleveland -1.5 runs in early evening action Monday

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Boston Red Sox (-1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET

The Red Sox are priced in the -165 range on the money line which is a little pricey but we can put the odds in our favor by laying the -1.5 runs here for the plus money (+115 range) return. Boston is expected to roll here per a significant pitching edge in this match-up. The Dodgers are starting Ross Stripling. He has an 8.00 ERA in his 2 starts in the month of July. Overall, the LA right-hander has struggled in his last 3 starts (17 hits allowed in 12 innings) since taking the spot of Rich Hill in the rotation. Stripling will be opposed by Chris Sale. The Red Sox southpaw is anxious to get back on the hill after a tough start closed out his first half of the season. Though he has given up more runs than usual in his last few starts, Sale has continued to pile up strikeouts and, in many respects, deserved better than what the line score ended up showing. The Dodgers are not very familiar with him (other than Sale mowing them down to close out last year's World Series) and that gives the lefty (with deceptive stuff) a big edge in this match-up. Sale has struck out 153 in his 107 innings on the mound this season. Opponents are hitting just .196 against Sale in night starts this season. 22 of the Dodgers 32 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. 36 of Boston's 49 wins this season have come by 2 or more runs. The bullpens are nearly equal. The Red Sox are one of the best hitting teams in the majors when at home while the Dodgers are not as strong at the plate when away from home. Combining that with the big starting pitching edge here and a home blowout is on tap at Fenway Park. Bet Boston -1.5 runs in early evening action Saturday

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Washington (-1.5 runs) over Miami, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

This one is all about the match-ups. Of course we're not going to recommend a money line when a team is a 5 to 2 favorite (-$250 range) but the run line (-1.5 runs) is available at -$130 price range here and offers great value. The match-up edges are simply massive in this one. Not only is Washington the much better team and lineup in comparison with Miami, the starting pitching edge is a huge one here. The Marlins are starting Sandy Alcantara and he is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA in his four career starts against the Nationals. Washington is starting Stephen Strasburg and success with him on the mound against Miami has been phenomenal. The Nationals are 12-0 the last 12 times that Strasburg has been on the mound against the Marlins. Strasburg is 10-0 with a 1.99 ERA in his last 12 starts against Miami. 33 of Washington's 43 wins this season have been by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. 41 of Marlins 51 losses this season have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. Given all of the above, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model has forecast a Nationals victory by a range of 3 to 4 runs in this one. We successfully used the same play when these guys squared off Thursday in Miami and now the rematch is in DC and we look for the Nationals to make it 13 in a row when Strasburg faces the Marlins as Alcantara drops to 0-5 in 5 career starts against the Nats. Bet Washington -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Washington (-1.5 runs) over Miami, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET

This one is all about the match-ups. Of course we're not going to recommend a money line when a team is a 2 to 1 favorite but the run line (-1.5 runs) is available at nearly a pick'em price here and offers great value. The match-up edges are simply massive in this one. Not only is Washington the much better team and lineup in comparison with Miami, the starting pitching edge is a huge one here. The Marlins are starting Sandy Alcantara and he is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his three career starts against the Nationals. Washington is starting Stephen Strasburg and success with him on the mound against Miami has been phenomenal. The Nationals are 11-0 the last 11 times that Strasburg has been on the mound against the Marlins. Strasburg is 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA in his last 11 starts against Miami. 31 of Washington's 39 wins this season have been by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. 39 of Marlins 48 losses this season have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. Given all of the above, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model has forecast a Nationals victory by a range of 3 to 4 runs in this one. Bet Washington -1.5 runs in early evening action Thursday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Houston (-1.5 runs) over Pittsburgh, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET

While we certainly would never advise laying a -265 price range on the money line on any team no matter the situation, we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Houston, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -130 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that an Astros win this evening is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Pittsburgh enters today's game with a 36-40 record on the season. 29 of the Pirates 40 losses have come by 2 or more runs. Also note that the average margin of victory in Houston's last 8 wins is 4.6 runs per game. As for the Astros, they enter tonight's game with a 49-30 record this season. 35 of the Astros last 43 wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Pirates recently welcomed back Trevor Williams to the rotation and it was ugly to say the least. He allowed 7 earned runs in only 5 innings of work and that was against a bad Tigers team. The Astros start Gerrit Cole here and the red hot right-hander has been dominating. In his last 5 starts he has allowed a total of only 8 earned runs on just 20 hits in 31 innings while striking out 48 batters. Houston is 8-2 in Cole's last 10 starts. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting an Astros win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs this evening! The Astros are coming off a tough road trip but they are a different team when they are at home. Houston is 27-11 this season when at home and the Astros are 20-9 this season in games against teams with a losing record. On the other hand, the Pirates are a very poor 14-32 this season when facing a team that is playing .500 ball or better on the season. The Astros certainly fit that category and they get a big start from Cole here and roll over Williams and the Pirates in this one. Bet Houston -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Houston (-1.5 runs) over Cincinnati, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET

While we certainly would not be comfortable laying a -175 price range (the opening number) on the money line on a road team, we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Houston, at -1.5 runs, is available in the even money price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that an Astros win this evening is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Cincinnati enters today's game with a 32-38 record on the season. 23 of the Reds 38 losses (including 13 of last 15) have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, Cincinnati's average margin of defeat in those 15 losses is 3 runs per game. As for the Astros, they enter tonight's game with a 48-25 record this season. 34 of the Astros last 42 wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Also, 17 of the Astros 21 wins away from Houston this season have come by 2 or more runs. Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Reds are 1-3 in Anthony DeSclafani's 4 home starts this season and he has a 4.79 ERA in those outings plus has been hit hard in recent home starts. The Astros start Justin Verlander here and the red hot right-hander has been dominating. In his last 5 starts he has allowed a total of only 11 earned runs on just 20 hits in 33 and 1 / 3 innings while striking out 48 batters. Houston is 12-4 this season in Verlander's starts. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting an Astros win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs this evening! The Astros are 20-7 this season in games against teams with a losing record. Bet Houston -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday

ASA play on: Golden State -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET Friday, Game 4 – There are some key stats that support this wager but in laymen terms it boils down to a great team off a home loss as a favorite. The Warriors were 24-7 SU off a loss this season, 12-2 SU at home off a loss and the last six wins in a row at home off a beat are by an average of 15PPG. More specifically, when Golden State is off a home loss, they are 5-1 SU with wins by 7, 17, 14, 28 and 6 points respectively. The Warriors are 36-7 SU at home the past 3+ years in the playoffs with an average differential of +11.9PPG and only once in that time have, they lost back to back home games. Toronto shot the shit out of it in Game 3 with an effective field goal percentage of 62.8% which is basically unheard of. That is clearly abnormal too as the Warriors EFG % defense was 6th best in the NBA this season at 51%. Granted the Warriors 3-point defense was atrocious in Game 3 and a lot of that has to do with the absence of Klay Thompson and KD. Thompson will be back tonight which should make a difference in how the Warriors defend the Raptors beyond the arc tonight. The Raptors literally had everything go right in Game 3 and we just don’t see that happening in Oakland with the Warriors in a do-or-die situation. As we mentioned, defending the 3-point line will be key and we don’t see Danny Green and Kyle Lowry going 11 for 19 from downtown tonight. Steph Curry is certainly capable of a repeat performance of Game 3, but we must bet the rest of the Warriors play much better than they did in G3. The betting markets are backing Toronto tonight, yet the line is not fluctuating the way the money is flowing. That’s a clear sign to bet on Golden State tonight.

ASA play on: Toronto Raptors +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET Wednesday – The number on this game is extremely short and typically we wouldn’t like going against the Warriors at home with this low of a line, but we’ll make an exception here. This isn’t the same Warriors team as injuries has taken its toll and there are just too many to overcome or justify betting them here. In Game 2 the Warriors got a HUGE boost with Boogie back on the floor as the logged 27 minutes, grabbed 10 rebounds and added 6 big assists and scored 11-points. But now the Raptors will have a plan in place to counter his presence and take advantage of a hobbled Klay Thompson if he’s able to suit up. The other big loss that’s not being talked about is Kevon Looney who has been a big energy guy and defensive stopper for Golden State. Even with Thompson scoring 25 in the last game before being hurt and shooting 46.3% as a team the Warriors managed just a 5-point road win in Game 2. Toronto had a horrendous shooting night in Game 2 (37.2%) so even if they have a less than stellar performance tonight, they can still cover this number. Toronto already has 4 playoff road wins this post season and that includes wins in Philadelphia and Milwaukee which are as tough a venue as you find. During the regular season this Raptors team had a +4.6 point road differential which was 3rd best in the league. Golden State wasn’t their usual dominate selves at home this year with the 11th best home differential of +6.6PPG (down from +7.6PPG last year, +15.9PPG the year before). The Raptors lost just 9 road games by more than 5-points this season which correlates to their 3rd rated offensive efficiency rating on the road and 4th best DEFF rankings. In closing, even if Klay can play tonight, just how effective can he be on one leg? That’s asking too much of Steph Curry and the rest of the team to overcome. This will be close throughout so we grab the points!

ASA play on: Golden State +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8M ET – We are betting the more experienced, defending Champions, off a loss here. Toronto again got a huge game from Siakam in Game 1 but don’t count on a repeat performance here as he consistently hasn’t done that all season long. Leonard was again fantastic for the Raptors but he clearly was laboring throughout the game. The high or energy from the Game 1 win won’t be as pronounced for Toronto in Game 2 as they have a win under their belt. The Raptors are 41-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State is 33-17 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. The probability numbers we’ve run on this game tell us overwhelmingly to bet the underdog off a loss and the heavy factor against the Raptors is winning 6 straight games against the 2 other best teams in the NBA. Golden State was 23-7 SU off a loss this season, 72-19 SU or 79% since 2015. This Warriors team is a remarkable 44-11 SU their last 55 playoff games and we’re betting they bounce back here with a win in the North.

ASA play on: Golden State +1.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET – Thursday Game 1 – The most recent memory in bettors minds right now is the Raptors beating the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals and they have bet accordingly. Give credit to the Raptors in that series win and their defense which was the difference. The Bucks literally didn’t make any adjustments in the last four games and tried to stay with their offensive philosophy which allowed the Raptors to essentially play zone defense. That won’t be a luxury against this Warriors team as they have way too many shooters to space the floor. Toronto could play off several Bucks in the last series but can’t here. The Warriors have had extra rest coming into this game and really didn’t miss a beat when Durant went down with his calf injury. In fact, they adapted and morphed into the team they were without him. Draymond Green has been a beast with Durant sidelined and provides another match up nightmare for Toronto. The Raptors were 40-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State was 33-16 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. Not to mention the veteran team and defending champion is an underdog. Before we go, we want to leave you with this. Is it more impressive that Kawhi Leonard was able to drag this team and roster to the Finals than the team LeBron took to the Finals with Love and Irving? Yeah, Leonard has been outstanding but even he can’t carry this team past the Champs. Play on Golden State in Game 1.

Milwaukee Bucks +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Saturday, Game 6 – The Raptors have had role players step up in big moments this series, but now that the spotlight and expectations are clearly high in this elimination game, we don’t expect the same production. Kawhi Leonard has been ridiculous in this series and I would argue has done more with less than LeBron and the Cavaliers a few years ago when they won their Ship. There is a reason the Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has been mentioned as a potential coach of the year and he’ll adjust here. If Giannis is on the floor then Bledsoe can’t be. The Bucks need to surround Giannis with shooters so the Raptors can’t collapse on him. If both Bledsoe and Giannis are on the floor, then Giannis needs to move to the baseline where he can roam behind the D. The Bucks are 10-4 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +9.8PPG. The Bucks are 62-21 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-17 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Bucks road differential of +5.6PPG was second best in the NBA this season behind only the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee had the 4th best road offensive efficiency at 1.123PPG and defensive efficiency allowing just 1.068PPP which was best in the league. We won’t ignore the Bucks 22-3 SU record off a loss, 10-2 SU on the road. The clincher for us though with this wager is value. The Bucks were favored by 3-points in the last game on this floor and are now a dog of 2 or more points. That is an over-reaction by the betting public and it’s always best to bet value over “feelings”. This series gets extended to a game 7.

ASA  play on: Milwaukee Bucks -7 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Thursday, Game 5 – The Raptors sent a message in the last two games to remind everyone they had the 2nd best record in the NBA this season for a reason. But now that the venue changes and the teams head back to Wisconsin, we can expect Milwaukee to get a resounding win on their home court. Milwaukee had the second-best home record in the NBA during the regular season with a 33-8 SU record and an average differential of plus +12.1PPG. The Bucks are 10-3 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +11.1PPG which balloons to +14.7PPG at home. The Bucks are one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% and shoot 35% from beyond the arc and will find their groove again back at the Fiserv Forum. In Game 4 of this series the Raptors got HUGE production out of their bench and role players but that certainly won’t carry over on the road. Clearly the Raptors rely heavily on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue, along with a nagging knee/quad is becoming a huge factor for the Super Star as the playoffs wear on. The Bucks are 62-20 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-16 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Nobody said this series was going to be an easy one for the Bucks and winning in Toronto is certainly a tough task, but back at home the Bucks get a much-needed win by a double-digit margin.

ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Milwaukee -3 over Toronto, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET

We’ve clearly lost value on this game with the Bucks going from an underdog in Game 3 to a favorite in tonight’s game. The Bucks starters were HORRENDOUS in Game 3, yet still could have won in double over-time. How bad were Milwaukee’s starters you ask? Middleton, Bledsoe, Antetokounmpo and Mirotic were a combined 14 of 59 from the field or 24% from the field. Those four also combined to make just 3 of 22 3-pointers. The Raptors benefitted from a non-call on a Kawhi Leonard double-dribble that led to an uncontested dunk at a critical juncture. Giannis was also called for his 6th foul on a questionable call which forced the Bucks superstar to the bench. Milwaukee has a near perfect record this season when coming off a loss with a 22-1 SU record. That’s not a coincidence either as a good coaching staff clearly knows how to adjust from one game to the next. And those wins have come by an average differential +15.4PPG. The Bucks had the 4th best road offensive efficiency rating on the road this season of 1.123PPP and a defensive efficiency of 1.068PPP which was 1st. Milwaukee’s +5.6 average point differential away from home was second best in the NBA this season. The Bucks bounce back in a big way with a double-digit win!

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +3 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 4 Monday – You know us, we are betting numbers and value, not teams. The play here is Portland at home. Teams down 0-3 in the past have not done well historically but the oddsmakers have factored that in and the over-adjustment is too great to pass up. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-12 SU record, 14-5 their last nineteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. In Game 3 the Blazers made just 40% of their field goal attempts, 31.4% from beyond the arc. Portland has the 8th best overall and 3-point shooting percentage at home this season.The Warriors are 3rd in overall shooting percentage defense but 13th in defending the 3-point line. Damian Lillard has had a tough series, but we expect him to bounce back here after a dismal -23 differential in the last game. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. Portland was a home underdog just five times this season and they won four of those games outright. The movement of the line has us on Portland in this game.

ASA 10* play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Friday, Game 2 –

The results of Game 1 and the statistics therein have us betting the Bucks again in Game 2. Milwaukee is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% but in Game 1, on their home court, the Bucks managed just 39.8% as a team. From beyond the 3-point line they shot just 25% as a team which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 35%. We predict a return to norm in Game 2 and expect the Bucks to have a much better shooting night. As we said in our analysis of Game 1, the Raptors rely too much on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue became apparent late in the game. If history holds true, Kyle Lowry won’t have the night he did in Game 1 as he hit 10 of 15 FG attempts which is abnormal by his previous standards. Lowry was dreadful in three outings against the Bucks in the regular season as he averaged 6.3 points on 7-of-30 shooting from the field (1-of-20 from three) to go along with 8.3 assists and 5 rebounds.  The fact that Lowry failed to score a single point on 11 tries from the field in the 122 possessions he went up against Bledsoe in all three losses the Raptors had against the Bucks this year. Milwaukee will make the adjustment here and have Bledsoe on Lowry which will again put more pressure on Leonard. The Bucks have several players that can step up and fill the void if one of the stars isn’t hitting as was the case in Game 1 with Brook Lopez. The Bucks are 61-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 36-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 69 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee has now beaten this Raptors four of five this season and rolls to a Game 2 win by double-digits.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +7 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 2 Thursday – After breaking down Game 1 of this series we like the Blazers chances to cover the spread in Game 2. First off, Terry Stotts is a good coach and will adjust in guarding Steph Curry in the pick-n-roll where he had the most success in the opener. Secondly, the Blazers were coming off a huge 7-game series in Denver and fatigue was clearly a factor. Now they have had a little more rest and are off an embarrassing showing in Game 1 so expect a much better effort here. The Warriors did lose two home games in the opening round to the Clippers and their average home differential is just +4.5PPG in the post-season. In the opener the Warriors were up only 6-points going into the fourth quarter before the Blazers collapse. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-10 SU record, 14-3 their last seventeen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). So, expect a return to the more ‘normal’ statistics here which will lead to a Blazers cover. Ask yourself this, with Golden State off a commanding win in the opener by 22-points, why did this line open higher, with the money and tickets coming in on the Warriors, yet the line went down? Portland had the 8th best road differential in the league this year at 0PPG so they are more than capable of keeping this game close throughout.

ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Wednesday, Game 1 - The Bucks are 60-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 35-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 68 wins have come by double-digits. Eric Bledsoe is averaging 16PPG in the playoffs on 47.8% shooting, Khris Middleton had a few rough shooting nights in the first two rounds but did average 16PPG in the series against the Celtics. Pat Connaughton and George Hill also provided some invaluable minutes off the bench for the Bucks in the first two rounds. Not to mention the Bucks get starter Malcolm Brogdon back for this series who makes them even deeper yet. Throw in the ‘bigs’ of Lopez, Mirotic and Ilyasova and you have a floor-spacing, 3-ball-makin bunch that are tough to defend. With the floor spaced it only make Giannis that much tougher to defend as he gets to the rim at will or drives and unselfishly kicks to open shooters. Game 7 of the Toronto/Philly series is a perfect example of why the Raptors won’t win this Eastern Conference Finals. You can’t rely solely on Kawhi Leonard to win a series. Leonard made a miraculous shot to win Game 7 against Philadelphia and put up 41 points in the process. It took Kawhi 39 shots to get to 41 and there were several opportunities for other players to take open shots, but they were reluctant to do so. Kyle Lowry is a notorious choker in the post-season, Pascal Siakam is an up-and-comer but still young and in an unfamiliar role. Marc Gasol is an adequate center but past his prime and not a rim protector. The rest of the supporting cast for the Raptors just isn’t good enough to provide Leonard with help to win this series or Game 1. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee beat this Raptors three of four this regular season and rolls a Game 1 win by double-digits.

ASA 10* play on: Portland Trailblazers +5.5 over @Denver Nuggets,330pm ET – We won’t ignore the fact that the Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but let’s also recognize that Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers, they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who shot over 46% during the regular season and made 36.1% of their 3-point attempts. Granted neither team is shooting it well in this series, but I trust Lillard and McCollum way more than I do the Nuggets shooters. Prior to the last two games of this series the previous eight games had an average differential of +5.25PPG and we expect this elimination game to go to the wire again. Grab the points and the underdog.

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Minnesota (-1.5 runs) over Detroit, Friday at 8:10 PM ET

While we certainly would never lay a -220 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Minnesota, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -105 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that a Twins win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Tigers enter tonight's game with a 16-18 record on the season. 15 of Detroit's 18 losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Tigers average margin of defeat this season is 4.3 runs per loss! As for the Twins, they enter tonight's game with an 11-5 record in home games this season. 9 of those 11 home wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Also, 10 of Minnesota's 11 wins since April 22nd have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Twins average margin of victory this season is 3.9 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Tigers are 0-3 in Tyson Ross' road starts this season. The Detroit right-hander recently returned from paternity leave and still was struggling so they even moved this start back a day trying to get him straightened out. The fact is that Tyson Ross is struggling badly including an 8.03 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Minnesota goes with red hot Jake Odorizzi on the bump tonight. The Twins right-hander has been dominating. In his last two starts he has allowed NO earned runs on only 6 hits in 13 innings while striking out 15 batters. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting a Twins win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs tonight! Detroit is 12-36 the last 48 times they've been a road dog in a range of +175 to +250. The Twins are 18-4 the last 22 times (including 5-0 this season) in home games in which they are a favorite in a range of -175 to -250. Bet Minnesota -1.5 runs in evening action Friday

ASA play on @Philadelphia 76ers +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET Thursday – We are playing on the ‘juvenile’ 76ers in this must win game at home tonight. It’s obvious the young 76ers still don’t full grasp the situation when Embiid is looking at cell phones on the bench, laughing in press conferences and easily distracted during games in the Playoffs. Ben Simmons isn’t much better, but when focused this team is clearly capable of beating anyone on any given night. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris who are all legitimate scorers in the NBA. Philly has won 75% of their games when coming off a loss and playing at home this season. The home team has won 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams with the average margin of victory by the home team in those seven wins being 18.4PPG. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Take the home dog as Philadelphia will extend this series.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10:30PM ET – This has been a great series and even though everyone has the Rockets or Warriors in the NBA Finals, one of these two teams certainly could represent the West. With the dust settled after the first four games of this series the total differential separating these two teams is just 2 total points. All four games have been tight, and the dog has covered three straight. Even when we go back to the regular season, we find those four games were decided by an average of just 5PPG. Denver has some fantastic home efficiency and overall statistics at home this season, but Portland has some great numbers too. The Blazers were 14th in road defensive efficiency and 7th in offensive efficiency. Portland was 7th in average point differential on the road at 0PPG. Denver has struggled with their shooting in the previous five games as they’ve hit just 42.7% of their field goal attempts. The Blazers are on a solid 4-1 ATS streak when coming off a straight up loss and will keep this game close throughout. Grab the points and the dog here!

ASA play on: Boston Celtics -1.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET (Game 4) In Game 1 of this series the Celtics had a fantastic game plan to limit Giannis and force other Bucks to beat them. It worked flawlessly and the Celtics drubbed the Bucks big on their home court. Milwaukee then adjusted, bounced back and crushed the Celtics in Game 2. In Game 3 it was a 1-point game at halftime, but the Bucks controlled the tempo and game for much of the second half in a relatively easy win. The Bucks shot over 50% and got a surprise 21-points from George Hill off the bench. The Celtics shot just 43% as a team and gave up 52 points in the paint to the Bucks. Milwaukee enjoys some of the best road efficiency numbers in the NBA but again, as we’ve said in the past, they played a very soft schedule which influenced those statistics. Boston had an average differential of +6.9PPG at home while shooting 47% on their home court and allowing just 45%. Boston is 7-3 SU their last nine home games when coming off a loss and have covered 6 of the last eight clashes with the Bucks on this floor. The home team has won 70% or 7 of the last ten meetings and with the line where it is, we are essentially asking the Celtics to just win on their home court. Boston bounces back off a loss and gets a home win in Game 4. 

ASA play on Philadelphia 76ers -2 over Toronto Raptors, 3:30PM ET Sunday – We are going contrarian here and don’t expect Toronto to bounce back off a loss in the previous game. It’s obvious the Raptors don’t have enough talent surrounding Leonard and in today’s NBA one player can’t get it done. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris and it’s proving to be too much for Toronto to overcome. The Raptors will also be short Siakam here which makes Leonard’s job that much more difficult. The home team has won 7 of the last nine meetings between these two teams and all seven wins came by more than today’s spread. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Toronto was 18-8 SU off a loss this season but just 6-4 on the road in that situation. A clear indicator that the 76ers are still being under-valued by the oddsmakers is their 6-1 ATS run, 4-1 spread record their last five home games. Philly grabs a commanding 3-1 lead in the series with a home win today!

ASA play on: Houston Rockets -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 8:30PM ET – Everyone has jumped off the Rockets bandwagon after two losses to start this series but we’re not one of them. We bet Houston to win this series and even though they must win 4 of five against the Warriors to get it done they are still capable of doing so. Houston’s numbers on the season are just as good as Golden State in many key statistical categories. These two teams were both #1 and #2 in offensive efficiency and were #13 and #17 in defensive efficiency so they are very even teams. Houston beat a very good Utah team at home in the opening round by 32 and 20 and have an average point differential of +7.1PPG at home during the regular season. The Rockets were 31-10 SU at home during the regular season and most importantly, 13-4 SU at home when coming off a loss. Let’s not forget this Rockets team took Golden State to 7-games a year ago and are better overall this season. Golden State has some fantastic numbers on the road this season but in this scenario (up 2-0) we can see a letdown by the Champs. The money and line indicators clearly support a bet on Houston in this game.

ASA play on: Boston Celtics -2 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET (Game 3) In Game 1 of this series the Celtics had a fantastic game plan to limit Giannis and force other Bucks to beat them. It worked flawlessly and the Celtics drubbed the Bucks big on their home court. Milwaukee then adjusted, bounced back and crushed the Celtics in Game 2. Kris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe had huge Game 2’s after struggling under the weight of the pressure in Game 1.  Middleton made seven 3-pointers and totaled 28 points while Bledsoe chipped in with 21 points. Boston’s All-Star guard Kyrie Irving had a horrible shooting night in Game 2 with just nine points on 4 of 18 shooting. So, we are betting the numbers flip again in Game 3 on Boston’s home floor with the C’s off a BAD loss. The added pressure of being on the road in this opener will again get to the Bucks role players and the hot shooting they enjoyed in Game 2 won’t be the same here. Milwaukee enjoys some of the best road efficiency numbers in the NBA but again, as we’ve said in the past, they played a very soft schedule which influenced those statistics. Boston had an average differential of +6.9PPG at home while shooting 47% on their home court and allowing just 45%. Boston is 7-2 SU their last nine home games when coming off a loss and have covered 6 of the last seven clashes with the Bucks on this floor. Boston bounces back off a loss and gets a home win in Game 3.

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Philadelphia (-1.5 runs) over Detroit, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

While we certainly would never lay a -220 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Philadelphia, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -105 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that a Phillies win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Tigers enter tonight's game with a 13-14 record on the season. 11 of Detroit's 14 losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Tigers average margin of defeat this season is 3.3 runs per loss! As for the Phillies, they enter tonight's game with an 11-6 record in home games this season. 13 of Philadelphia's 16 wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Phillies average margin of victory this season is 4.3 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Tigers are 0-2 in Daniel Norris' last two road starts including his first away from home this season. Norris has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 and 2 / 3 innings spanning those two road starts. Also, the Detroit left-hander had his rotation spot moved up a day due to Tyson Ross going on paternity leave. Of course this could effect the timing of Norris. Philadelphia goes with Aaron Nola on the bump tonight. The Phillies right-hander is back on track after a rough start to the season. In his last two starts he has allowed only 4 earned runs in 12 and 1 / 3 innings while striking out 13 batters. Of course he was one of the best pitchers in the majors last season and a return to improved form is a great sign for he and the Phillies. Look for Philadelphia to bounce back strong after last night's 3-1 loss. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting a Phillies win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs tonight! Detroit is 2-6 this season in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. The Phillies are 7-3 this season in home games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Bet Philadelphia -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday

ASA play on: Houston Rockets +5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – Tuesday, Game 2 – I made a wager on the Rockets to win this series before it started and in hind-sight wish I would have waited until after Game 1 to get better odds. The Rockets are going to win this series and the landscape of the NBA will be altered because of the results (much like the Avengers Endgame alternate reality). In any regard, the Rockets took Golden State to a 7-game series a year ago and have a better chemistry this year. Golden State has not enjoyed as big of a home court advantage this season as they have in the past which we’ll explain here. Three years ago, the Warriors were 36-5 SU at home with a differential of +15.9PPG during the regular season. Those numbers dipped a year ago to 29-12, +7.6PPG. This season the Warriors were 30-11 SU at home in the regular season but their average point differential was just +6.6PPG. Houston was great on the road this season with the 5th best road differential of +2.4PPG and an offensive efficiency rating of 1.139 points per possession (2nd). Let’s not forget the Warriors lost two home games in the first round to the Clippers who were one of the 4 worst teams in the entire playoffs. Golden State was just 10-17 ATS at home against winning teams this season while the Rockets were 11-10 ATS on the road against winning teams, and many of those games were as a chalk. Houston was a solid 19-11 SU when coming off a loss this season, 15-2 SU their last seventeen in that situation. The Rockets shot just 41.9% in Game 1 which was uncharacteristically low for them so expect a better night from the field here. Despite the poor shooting in Game 1, multiple technical at the end of the game and questionable non-calls, the Rockets still only lost by 4-points. Easy call here with the Rockets and the points.

ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Tuesday 8PM ET Game 2 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. Then in Game 1 of this series the Celtics put together a fantastic game plan to stop Giannis and force the other Bucks to beat them which simply didn’t happen. Boston took control in the 3rd quarter and never looked back in a 22-point win. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. Milwaukee is nearly perfect this season when coming off a loss with a 21-1 SU record but that was during the regular season AND they can still win this game but asking them to do so by 8 or more is too much to ask. We all doubted the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 11 of their last thirteen games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and it clearly showed in Game 1 which was an easy C’s win. What makes Boston so dangerous is that if their best player, Irving, is off they have so many others that can step up and carry the scoring load. This will be another close game. Grab the points.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4 over @Denver Nuggets, 10:30pm ET – Denver is coming off a very tough series with San Antonio and now play just a few days after a dramatic Game 7 win. Portland has had extra rest off their series with OKC and the extra game planning will be a huge factor tonight. During the regular season the Nuggets were favorited by 6-points and 4.5-points at home in the two clashes with the Blazers so you can see for yourself we’ve lost a little value here. But that won’t deter us from playing on Portland as we feel the adjustment is justified. The Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who just shot over 47% in three of five games against the Thunder and have made over 40% of their 3-point attempts in the playoffs. Portland is 16-5 ATS their last 21 games when playing with 3+ days of rest and we feel that will be a big key tonight. This goes down to the wire, grab the points!

ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Sunday 1PM ET Game 1 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. We all started doubting the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 10 of their last twelve games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and we like their chances to keep this contest close throughout. Grab the points!

ASA play on: @Toronto Raptors -6 over Philadelphia 76ers, Saturday 7:30PM ET – Game 1 – Both teams come into this contest with similar recent results. Each team lost the opener of the series in round 1 then won 4 straight games to close out the series. The Raptors enjoy a solid home court advantage in this game as they finished the regular season with a 32-9 SU record and a +7.5-point per game differential which was 7th best in the NBA. Toronto was top 9 in the league at home in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and of their 32 home wins, 25 came by 6 or more points. Both Raptors wins at home over Philadelphia were by 11 and 17-points respectively. Conversely, the 76ers had disappointing numbers on the road this season with a negative differential of -2.7PPG which was in the bottom half of the league. Philly was 16th in OEFF ratings on the road and 17th in DEFF. The Sixers weren’t great as underdogs in this price range either this year with a 3-9 ATS record when getting 5 or more points this season. Let’s not forget, this isn’t the same Toronto team that was poorly coached in the post season and choked in the past. The veteran leadership of Leonard and Gasol has had a big impact on the rest of the roster and made this team a legitimate contender in the East. In our opinion, Philly is not in the conversation because of their home/road dichotomies. Play on the Raptors at home in Game 1.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Denver Nuggets, 8PM ET Thursday – The Nuggets have rebounded in this series to take a 3-2 lead but it’s not over yet according to our math model. The Spurs have won 14 of the last fifteen meetings against the Nuggets on their home floor and with their backs against the wall they’ll find a way to win this game tonight. In Game 3 the Spurs were favored by -4.5 points and now the line has fluctuated down to minus -3 as of this writing. We are going against the Nuggets here for the same reason we’ve faded the Spurs a couple games in this series and that’s home/road dichotomies. Denver has a negative road differential of -2.6PPG this season which is 4th worst of all the playoff teams. They are outside the top half of the league in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency on the road this season compared to top 5in both at home. San Antonio had the 10th best home differential in the league at +6.8PPG and were top 9 in both OEFF and DEFF on their home court. A big reason why the Spurs have a solid point differential at home is their 3-point shooting in their building which is best in the NBA at 41.6%. The Nuggets are slightly better than league average in defending the 3-point line when away from home. San Antonio has been extremely good off a loss and playing at home with a 12-3 SU record this season. This series gets extended with a Spurs win by 7 or more.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz +8.5 over Houston Rockets, Wednesday 8PM ET – Game 5 - The money is clearly on the Rockets in this game with the vast majority of tickets and money siding with the Rockets. But based on the volume of wagering the line hasn’t moved as it should. That’s a clear indicator that smart money is on the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz finished the regular season on a blistering 30-11 SU run but public bettors have forgotten that after three straight Rockets wins to start this series. The 3-1 Houston lead in this series has led to tremendous value with the Jazz here in Game 5. The Rockets potential undoing this post season will be there defense which ranked 18th in DEFF on the season. Of all the playoff teams, only the Spurs and Clippers were worse. Utah on the other hand had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA this season and it showed in Game 3 and 4. In Game 3, even though they lost, the Jazz held the Rockets to 38.4% shooting and 104 points. In Game 4, the Jazz limited the Rockets to just 35.4% from the field and 91 points. Both those numbers are drastically lower than their season average of 44.8% and 111.1PPG. The Utah Jazz have been plus 8 or more points just two times this entire season which tells us exactly how good they are. We know how well the favorites are doing in the post season but the value on this game is just too good to overlook the dog. Play on the Utah Jazz plus the points.  

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday 9:30PM ET –  San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG during the regular season. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG during the regular season. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this regular season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 12 of fourteen in this series with the favorite covering 12 of the last eighteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in Game 5, with a chance to take back the advantage in the series. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. Denver found their shooting touch in Game 2 at home and Game 4 in San Antonio. Popp had a great game plan in Game 1 and stole a win on this court. The Nuggets have adjusted and get this crucial home win tonight by double digits.  

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Cleveland (-1.5 runs) over Miami, Tuesday at 6:10 PM ET

While we certainly would never lay a -210 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Cleveland, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -110 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that an Indians win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Marlins enter tonight's game with a 6-16 record on the season. 12 of Miami's 16 losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Marlins average margin of defeat this season is an incredible 4.3 runs per loss! As for the Indians, they enter tonight's game with a 12-9 record on the season. 9 of Cleveland's 12 wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Indians average margin of victory this season is nearly 3 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Marlins Pablo Lopez is 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA in his two road starts this season. Cleveland goes with Carlos Carrasco on the bump tonight. The Indians right-hander had one rare sub-par outing in his last 3 but in the other two he dominated and struck out 24 in 12 innings! Carrasco also dominated the Marlins in his only career start against them. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting an Indians win by a margin of 2 to 3 runs tonight! Miami is 1-10 this season in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. The Indians are 4-1 this season in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Bet Cleveland -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -2.5 over Houston Rockets, Saturday 10:30PM ET – Game 3 -  The money is clearly on the Rockets in this game with the vast majority of tickets and cash siding with the Rockets. But based on the volume of wagering the line hasn’t moved as it should. That’s a clear indicator that smart money is on the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz finished the regular season on a blistering 30-11 SU run but public bettors have forgotten that after two beat-downs in Games 1 & 2 of this series which has led to tremendous value with the Jazz. These two teams met on this floor in early February with the Jazz favored by -7-points and now they are laying several points less than that. Utah has also won 22 of their last 26 home contests and have the 5th best overall home point differential in the NBA at +7.9PPG. They were 14th in offensive efficiency ratings at home and 3rd in DEFF. Houston is one of three teams in the NBA right now that we feel can win it all this season (Milwaukee and Golden State) but this is clearly a ‘play against’ situation. Houston was 22-19 SU on the road in the regular season with a positive road differential of +2.4PPG. The Rockets potential undoing this post season will be there defense which ranks 15th in DEFF on the road this season. Houston was just 17-23-1 ATS on the road this year, 9-11 ATS against other playoff teams when on the road. Utah is on a 13-6 SU run at home against other playoff teams and ALL thirteen of those wins came by more than today’s spread! That means when they win this game, they also cover the short number. In a must win situation, at home, the Jazz get a big win!

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -2.5 over Boston Celtics, 8:30PM ET – If there is a game the Pacers are going to win it’s this one. Indiana outplayed the Celtics in Game 2 and this series should be even. With just 51 seconds to play the Pacers had a 2-point lead but got outscored 10-0 to end the game. Indiana was 29-12 SU at home this season while Boston was 21-20 on the road. Indiana has a home differential of +7.7PPG which is the 6th highest number in the NBA. The Pacers strength at home this season was their defense which was 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings, allowing just 1.027 points per possession. Let’s not be mistaken, the Celtics had some solid road differentials at +2.1PPG which was 6th best in the league but their road offensive efficiency rating was 23rd in the NBA. This Indiana team is a resilient bunch of players that will bounce back from their late game collapse in Boston in Game 2 and grab this home win in Game 3. Indiana a profitable 9-4 ATS their last thirteen home games against road teams with a winning record and the favorite in this rivalry has covered 4 of the last five meetings.

ASA play on San Antonio Spurs -3 over Denver Nuggets, Thurs 9PM ET – The Spurs have outplayed the Nuggets in 6 of the eight quarters of this series and if it weren’t for a HUGE 4th quarter in Game #2 this series would be 2-0 Spurs instead of 1-1. We went against San Antonio in the first two games with one main reason backing our analytics and that is the difference in home/road dichotomies for the Spurs. San Antonio has really poor road numbers but also have some really good home statistics. SA was 32-9 SU at home this year with a positive differential of +6.8PPG which was 10th best in the NBA. The Spurs had the 7th best home efficiency numbers and the 9th best defensive efficiency numbers on their home court. At the end of the regular season when Popp was resting players and adjusting his rotations the Spurs went 0-5 ATS and that has influenced the betting number on this game. If we eliminate that 0-5 ATS run the Spurs were 24-12 ATS at home on the season. Denver has not been a profitable road spread team this season with the 3rd worst ATS record in the NBA at 17-24 and just 10-11 as a road dog. Those are not statistics you would expect of a 2 seed in the West. The Nuggets regular season road differential of -2.6PPG is one of the worst differentials of all the playoff teams (only Philly, Spurs and Pistons are worse). Denver is 17th in offensive efficiency on the road this season, 16th in defensive efficiency. The chalk has covered 11 of the last sixteen and we like the Spurs here to win by 8. Lay it.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +7.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET – The Pacers had a HORRIBLE shooting night in Game #1. They were awful from beyond the arc, from the stripe and everywhere else on the floor. The Pacers scored just 8-points in the entire 3rd quarter when they went 2 of 19 from the field. That was an aberration as the Pacers are the 6th best shooting team in the NBA. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA this season at minus -1PPG and were 19-22 SU away from home this season. The Pacers were 12-5 SU this season when coming off a double-digit loss so expect a bounce back here. Boston underachieved all season long but played well in Game #1. But are you betting on the Celtics team you saw play all year long or the one that showed up in the opener? Boston was 28-13 SU at home in the regular season with a point differential of +6.8PPG. The C’s have just one spread win on their home court in their last nine home games and the betting numbers suggest the public is betting based on perception instead of reality. Going back to early January the Celtics have just 7 home wins by 8 or more points. These two teams are closer than the line suggests. Grab the points.

We'll take the points with Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers. The Thunder won five straight games to end the regular season, including wins at Milwaukee and home against Houston, but lost the opener of this series. OKC had the 7th best road differential in the NBA this season at +2PPG, were 11th in road offensive efficiency ratings and 5th in defensive efficiency. Portland had one of the better home point differential numbers and great offensive efficiency stats, but their home defensive efficiency numbers were 19th in the NBA. In Game #1 the Thunder lost by just 5-points despite shooting just 5 of 33 from beyond the arc. That’s not a ‘normal’ night for the Thunder who shoot just under 35% on the season AND Portland allows 35.7% (17th in the NBA). OKC won all four meeting this season including two games on this floor, both as small underdogs. The Thunder will shoot better tonight and even the series at 1 game apiece.

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -6.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday 9PM ET –  San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG during the regular season. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG during the regular season. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 10  of eleven in this series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fifteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in Game 2, off a loss, in a MUST WIN situation. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. Denver had a horrendous shooting night in Game 1 from beyond the arc and from the free throw line so expect a return to average tonight which leads to a double digit win.  

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Tampa Bay (-1.5 runs) over Baltimore, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET

While we certainly would never lay a -250 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Tampa Bay, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -120 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that a Rays win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Orioles enter tonight's game with a 7-10 record on the season. All 10 of Baltimore's losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, Baltimore's average margin of defeat this season is an incredible 5 runs per loss! As for the Rays, they enter tonight's game with a 12-4 record on the season. All 12 of Tampa Bay's wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Rays average margin of victory this season is an amazing 4 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Orioles Dylan Bundy is winless with an 8.75 ERA in his 3 starts this season. The Baltimore right-hander has allowed 6 homers in his last 2 starts! Tampa goes with red-hot Tyler Glasnow on the bump tonight. The Rays right-hander is a perfect 3-0 with an 0.53 ERA in his 3 starts this season. Glasnow has allowed less HITS (11) than Bundy has allowed RUNS (12) in comparing their 3 starts this season! Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting a Rays win by a margin of 4 to 5 runs tonight! Bet Tampa Bay -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Detroit Pistons. The underdogs cashed in on Saturday with the lone exception being Golden State’s blowout win over the Clippers. This game is eerily like that one and we expect a blowout by the Bucks. There are essentially 4 teams that have a legitimate shot to win it all this year and the Bucks are one of the favorites. The same can’t be said about the Pistons who rate the worst team in the post season. The second worse according to our numbers is the Clippers. Did you know the Bucks were favored in 72 games this year, second only to the Golden State Warriors (75), of which the Bucks won 54 straight up. In their 60 wins this season, 45 were by double-digits! Milwaukee was 27-14 SU against all other playoff teams this season and two of those losses were in the last few games when they had solidified the best record in the NBA. They have the best average point differential in the league at +8.9PPG and the best home court differential at +12.1PPG. Detroit was 15-26 SU away this year with the 17th worst average differential of minus -3.1PPG.  The Bucks beat this Pistons team four times this season with the two home wins coming by 23-points each. The home crowd will be electric today for Milwaukee and the lead will be too big for a back door cover late.

Today we'll take the points with Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers. If you would have asked us a few months ago who a sleeper bet was to win the NBA Finals our answer would have been the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder were playing extremely well a few months ago, have a dynamic backcourt of Paul George and Russell Westbrook and a solid Frontline anchored by Steven Adams. Then the Thunder suffered a few injuries and Westbrook went through a shooting slump. Now they look to be back on track after winning five straight games to end the season, including wins at Milwaukee and home against Houston. Portland had to suffer through some injuries of their own this season with CJ McCollum being hurt and then Center Jusuf Nurkic being lost for the season with a broken leg. McCollum came back and played two games at the end of the regular season but hasn't shot the ball well going 8 for 26 from the field. OKC had the 7th best road differential in the NBA this season at +2PPG, were 11th in road offensive efficiency ratings and 5th in defensive efficiency. Portland had one of the better home point differential numbers and great offensive efficiency stats but their home defensive efficiency numbers were 19th in the NBA. The Blazers defense certainly won’t be better here without Nurkic and with Kanter in the lineup. OKC won all four meeting this season including two games on this floor, both as small underdogs. The underdog theme continues Sunday with the Thunder winning this game outright.

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Saturday 10:30PM ET – Let’s make sure we are clear on this. The 2019 Spurs are not the Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker version.  San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 10 straight in this series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fourteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in this opener. Denver was recently favored by -4.5 points at home over the Spurs and beat them 113-85. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. This game will be blowout by the time the 4th quarter starts.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -8 over Sacramento Kings, 10:30PM ET – We’ve won a lot of money this year playing on or against the Kings and will finish off the regular season with a wager against them tonight. Portland has a lot to play for tonight and the Kings do not. With a win the Blazers have a chance to secure the 3rd seed in the West. That would mean home court in the first round and avoiding a red-hot Utah Jazz team. The Blazers have won 7 straight at home and those wins have come by an average of 8PPG. Portland has the 3rd best overall home differential in the league this year at +8.5PPG and are the 2nd most efficient offensively at home. Sacramento has played especially well at home this season but not as well on the road. The Kings road point differential is a negative 3.7PPG which is 19th worse in the league. Portland will take advantage of a Sacramento D that is 21st in the NBA in road defensive efficiency allowing 1.128 points per possession. The Kings are just 2-7 SU their last nine on the road and have yet to face the Blazers in Portland this season. Typically, we would be concerned about lost line value here but look at the Kings three most recent road games against similar teams to the Blazers. At Utah the Kings were +10, at Spurs +10.5 and at Houston +10 so the line here is not out of whack. Portland was double-digit home favorites over the Grizzlies, Mavs and Suns recently who are worse than the Kings, but not by a whole lot. Easy call here with Portland at home minus the points!

ASA 9* play on: Atlanta Hawks -4.5 over Indiana Packers 8PM ET – The Pacers have locked up their spot in the East and will head to Boston for the first round of the playoffs. That means a lot of rest for the regulars. In fact, the Pacers are sitting 5 of their top six players and that doesn’t include Oladipo who is out for the season. Indiana’s reserve players aren’t known around the league as a dominating bench, so I don’t expect them to compete with the Hawks starting core. Indiana has been in a win-at-all-cost approach down the stretch of the season but hasn’t produced with a 7-12 SU record their last nineteen games. They are also just 3-7 SU their last ten. Atlanta has played a murderous schedule down the stretch and have played relatively well. Atlanta has 5 wins in their last ten games and four of those came against current playoff bound teams, including the 1st place Bucks. The Hawks are currently at 29 wins on the season and would love to make it 30. Atlanta has covered four straight games when coming off a loss and they’ll make it five tonight!

ASA NHL PLAY ON Columbus Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Tampa Bay, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

The Lightning were unquestionably the top team in the NHL this season. However, the Blue Jackets enter the post-season having won 7 of their last 8 games. The acquisitions they made late in the season finally started to click after they were able to have some time playing together on the ice. At the same time, they started to get hot goal-tending from Sergei Bobrovsky. In fact, Columbus allowed an average of only 1.1 goals per game in its last 7 games! While it is true the Lightning swept the Jackets in the regular season series, it is also true that Tampa was out-shot by a margin of 103 to 73 in the three games! That is an average shots on goal differential of 10 per game and all the pressure here is actually on the Bolts. That's because Tampa Bay is expected to win and is in the heavy favorite and, of course, they need to defend home ice. We feel all the above factors are going to have Columbus "hanging around" in this one for the potential upset. Even if the Blue Jackets fall just short, look for the margin to be only a single goal in this one. Columbus has won 5 straight road games. Also, 4 of the Jackets last 7 road losses have come by just a single goal. More confident than they've ever been and playing with no pressure on them, Columbus looks to steal game one and we expect this game to be much closer than many experts are expecting. With all the pressure on Tampa Bay here and the Blue Jackets playing loose and with revenge, this one goes down to the wire! Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and very little juice -125 range) with Columbus is the value play here.

ASA play on: @Utah Jazz -2.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – The Jazz are a dangerous team right not and not someone I’d want to face in the playoffs. Utah has won 7 of their last eight games, with the lone loss a disappointing showing against the Lakers.  The Jazz have won 12 of their last fourteen home games, including 7 straight. Of their last seven home wins all but one has come by 9 or more points. On the season the Jazz have one of the best overall home point differentials in the NBA at +7.8PPG. For being one of the best teams in the league this year the Nuggets haven’t been great on the road. Denver has a negative point differential of -2.4PPG on the road this year with a 20-20 SU record. If we dig deeper, we find that the Nuggets are just 2-13 SU on the road their last 15 when facing a current playoff team. In other words, they don’t beat the leagues better teams when playing on the road. Utah has beaten the Nuggets on this court 5 straight times and all five have come by 6 or more points. Easy call with the Jazz tonight. 

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) vs New York Yankees, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

The Yankees certainly are loaded with some power hitting sluggers but that is also why they are prone to striking out too much. That said, this is not a good match-up for the Yankees. Gerrit Cole is off a superb season last year and he has picked up right where he left off last year as he has struck out 19 in 12 innings in his first two starts. Cole has been dealt a tough 0-2 in the won-loss column however as the run support just hasn't been there in those two games. The key here is that should not be an issue with the Astros at home and taking on an inexperienced starter Jonathan Loaisiga. He was successful in his 4-inning stint last week but that came against the Tigers. Now he goes from facing one of the worst teams in the majors to facing one of the best clubs in the majors. Houston is picking up steam now with 4 straight wins. However, the money line here is far too pricey but we see value with the run line and taking the Astros at -1.5 runs. The Yankees have lost 5 of their last 9 games and 8 of the 9 came against poor teams, Detroit and Baltimore. Loaisiga's 5 career MLB starts have averaged just 4 and 1 / 3 innings and he has never gone more than 5 and 1 / 3 in any start. The Yankees bullpen has been solid but will be asked to do too much here against a potent lineup. Yesterday the New York bullpen allowed 3 runs late. They'll be called upon even earlier in this game! Cole should work deep in the game and the Astros bullpen has been one of the best in the majors this season. Bet Houston -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday

ASA play on: @Boston Celtics -4.5 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – Both teams have plenty to play for here as the Magic need a win to clinch a playoff spot in the East, while Boston is fighting for the 4th seed and home court in the first round. The Celtics look like they flipped the switch here recently and are rounding into the team everyone thought they’d be all season long. Reports are that head coach Stevens and Kyrie Irving are on the same page right now and it’s starting to show in the teams play. Boston has won three straight all against desperate teams like Orlando with wins over Miami (twice) and Indiana. Let’s look at today’s number and talk about value. The Celtics were just a 7-point favorite at home over Miami and Indiana at home. The C’s were favored by 1-point in Indiana who is the current 5th seed. Now they are laying this short number at home against the Magic. The reason the number is what it is, is because the Magic are playing well and desperate too. But are they playing well or is it the competition? Orlando is 9-2 SU their last eleven games but look at six of those W’s: Cleveland, Atlanta (twice), New Orleans, Memphis and New York who are some of the worst teams in the league.  Their only good win in that stretch of games came at home against Philly. They also recently lost at Toronto by 12-points who are like the Celtics. The last time these two teams met was in Orlando and the Celtics were favored by 7-points. Now they’re laying less than that at home. Orlando is 15-24 SU on the road with an average differential of minus -1.7PPG. Boston has the 8th best home point differential in the league at +7.2PPG. The C’s are a team that can win it all this year, the Magic are not. Lay the points!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State -2.5 over Texas Tech, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET

We feel we’re getting some line value here with the Spartans.  Tech has become a very popular underdog with their run through this tourney and deservedly so.  However, Tech was just +5 on a neutral court vs Gonzaga (we were on Texas Tech) and now they are +2.5 vs Michigan State.  We have the Zags and Sparty rated dead even so in our mind we’re getting an extra 2.5 points here.  If these teams would have met on a neutral court at the end of the season or at the start of this tourney, we would expect MSU to be a 5 or so point favorite.  So you can see why we feel the value in the number is on the Spartans.  Much has been made of Tech’s defense which is obviously excellent (ranked 1st in adjusted defensive efficiency).  However, MSU is nearly every bit as good ranking 9th nationally in defensive efficiency.  The Spartans have held every team in this tourney to 67 points or fewer including LSU and Duke.  We don’t feel there is much of a gap between these two defense.  We do give MSU a decent edge offensively.  They rank 5th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency while Tech ranks 28th in that category and just 52nd in eFG%.  The Raiders played a similar offense in regards to efficiency when they faced Gonzaga.  The Zags were held to 69 in that game but we felt they actually played fairly well offensively for the most part.  They made over 54% of their shots inside the arc but simply struggled from 3-point range making only 26%.  Many of those were open 3’s that were simply missed.  We expect MSU to shoot better in this game.  Sparty should also have a solid edge on the boards here.  They are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and Texas Tech has actually been outrebounded in 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney games.  We think that comes back to bite them here giving MSU a number of extra offensive opportunities.  While Elite 8 underdogs have done very well over the years, that situation flips once we in the Final 4 and National Championship game.  The favorite in Final 4 & NC games are 25-16-1 ATS since 2005.  While Izzo has brought his team to the Final 4 a whopping 9 times, this is the first time EVER for Texas Tech.  Those teams usually don’t move on.  In fact, since 1988, there have been 14 teams that made it to the Final 4 for the first time ever.  Those teams are 4-10 SU with only ONE winning the National Championship (UConn in 1999).  We like the experience of MSU here and with the line now sitting at -2.5 we’re almost just asking them to win the game.  Take the Spartans on Saturday.

ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +7 over Milwaukee Bucks, 5PM ET – The thought process for this game is pretty straight forward. The Bucks literally have nothing left to play for with the best record in the NBA and home court throughout the playoffs. The Nets control their own destiny but need to win to get a spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. We wouldn’t make this bet if we still didn’t have value in the number though and based on these teams recent meeting, we get it here. The Bucks were just favored by -1.5 points in Brooklyn earlier this week so the natural swing would have them -9 or -10 in this game. The line opened -8.5-points but dropped immediately to where it is now. That tells us one HUGE factor in this game. MVP Giannis won’t play. We know he wants too but the Bucks would be stupid to play him here, especially with a tender ankle. Milwaukee is already short handed with several starters and key contributors out with injuries so covering any kind of spread is going to be tough. Plus, the Bucks are off a big come from behind road win in Philly AND just beat this Nets team earlier in the week. Brooklyn in the way more desperate team here and worth a bet.

ASA play on: @Charlotte Hornets +5.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – The Bucks win last night have assured Milwaukee the best record in the East and overall NBA so the Raptors main concern is being healthy going into the post season. Charlotte still has an outside shot at making the playoffs but essentially needs to win out and get help from other teams. These same two teams just met a few weeks ago and the Raptors were favored by 11.5 points at home. The Hornets won that game 115-114. As you can see the line adjustment here by the oddsmakers is too great. Based on that last game the Hornets should be a slight favorite here. Revenge doesn’t work here for Toronto as it’s a meaningless game to them. Charlotte has been very good at home this year with a 24-15 SU record and a home differential of +4PPG. The Hornets have won and covered two straight as a home dog as they recently beat Boston at home as a 4-point dog and San Antonio as a 4-point dog. Charlotte is also 4-1 SU at home their last five games and the one loss was by 4-points to Philly. Toronto has won 5 straight games, so their sense of urgency is not the same as it is for Charlotte. The value in the line is key here along with the team that is more desperate. Grab the points!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Lipscomb +1.5 over Texas, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN

From a straight value perspective, Lipscomb is definitely worth a look here.  They are +1.5 in this game vs Texas.  For comparison’s sake, the Longhorns were +1.5 on Tuesday when they faced TCU here at Madison Square Garden.  Looking at power ratings (Ken Pom) Lipscomb is actually rated as a better team than TCU (#39 while TCU is #43).  That tells us this number should be similar to Tuesday’s TCU – Texas game but it’s a full 3-point difference.  We were on Texas on Tuesday as we felt the situation was perfect.  The Horns were in revenge mode vs their Big 12 and in state rival after losing at home to TCU just a few weeks earlier in their regular season finale.  The loss by the Horns pretty much eliminated them from any at large bid consideration for the NCAA.  That gave UT some major motivation on Tuesday and they handled TCU winning by 14.  The Frogs shot as poorly as they have in a long time making only 28% of their shots and just 19% from beyond the arc.  While this is now the NIT Championship game, don’t be surprised if Texas is a bit flat vs no-name Lipscomb.  The Horns had their big game on Tuesday.  On the other hand, this is a program changing game for Lipscomb.  They have proven more than worthy to be here winning ALL of their NIT games on the road (@ Davidson, @ UNC Greensboro, and @ NC State).  Texas played all of their NIT games at home until Tuesday’s neutral court match up with TCU.  Speaking of TCU, on a sidenote this Lipscomb team beat TCU by 9 on the road earlier this year.  Back to this game…We don’t expect the Longhorns to shut down Lipscomb’s offense as they did with TCU a few days ago.  That’s because the Bisons shoot well from every level (21st nationally in eFG%) and make nearly 76% of their FT’s as well.  Defensively the Bisons are very good at defending the 3 point line (allowing 32% which is 47th nationally) which is a good match up for them here as Texas shoot a lot of 3’s.  The Horns pick up almost 37% of their points from beyond the arc which is 61st most nationally.  If they struggle from 3, which they could here vs this defense, they are in trouble.  Lipscomb is a veteran team with 5 upperclassmen in the starting line up.  They went to the NCAA last year and lost in UNC.  These upperclassmen have been very successful with a 72-30 record over the last 3 seasons.  Also keep in mind, this team was favored by 6-points in the Atlantic Sun Championship game but lost to Liberty.  That’s the same Liberty team that beat Mississippi State in round one of the Big Dance and then gave Va Tech all they could handle in the round of 32.  Taking on a below .500 Big 12 team (in conference play) in a potential letdown spot is worth a long look.  We like Lipscomb to win the NIT Championship.

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Oakland A's (+1.5 runs) vs Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET

The A's won yesterday's game 7-0 and the set up is perfect for the Red Sox to remain cold. Mike Fiers gets the ball for Oakland here and he fired 6 shutout innings (and allowed only 1 hit!) in his first start of the season. Also, the A's right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA in the 4 games he has pitched in his career against Boston. The Red Sox counter with Chris Sale here and he got rocked for 7 runs in just 3 innings in his first start of the season. The Boston lefty allowed 3 homers in those 3 innings. Last season Sale was not quite himself in the post-season and continues to have short outings. He also wrapped up the regular season last year with a couple of shot and sub-par outings.. Until he proves otherwise, Sale deserves to be faded and that is especially true when in this price range and on the road and opposed by a hurler who has proven many times in the past that when he is on he is really on! Fiers continues throwing well here and we're grabbing the extra value with the run line. While the A's are very attractive as a sizable money line home dog here, they're even more attractive when getting +1.5 runs and only having to lay small juice. The only win Boston has this season came by a single run margin and one of the A's last two losses came by a single run as well. The Red Sox have been a very strong team the last two seasons but are only 8-9 when off a shutout loss. The A's are 100-67 at home (including 4-1 this season) and also are 14-7 when off a shutout win. Per our computer math model, most of the simulations we ran show either an A's win or an A's loss by just a single run. We'll grab the Run Line here! Bet Oakland +1.5 runs in night action Tuesday

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas +1.5 over TCU, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET

Our power ratings have Texas favored by 1 point on a neutral court so the line value is with the Horns in our opinion.  On top of that, this is a double revenge spot for Texas who lost both games to TCU this year.  They lost a tight game on the road 65-61 back in January.  They then lost a huge home game to TCU just a few weeks ago, a game they really needed if they wanted a chance for an at large NCAA tourney bid.  The Horns blew it at home shooting just37% while allowing TCU to make 54% of their shots.  Worse yet, Texas shot just 21% from behind the arc while the Frogs made over 50% of their 3-pointers.  Just an all around poor shooting effort for the Longhorns.  Also make note, the Horns top player, Kerwin Roach, did not play in that regular season finale vs TCU but has since come back to score 8, 12, 21, and 14 points since that loss.  UT was 1-4 during Roach’s 5-game suspension and they are 3-1 since he came back with their only loss to Kansas in the Big 12 tourney.  Roach will be in the line up on Tuesday.  Also note that Texas was favored by 7 in that meeting just a few weeks ago and now they are an underdog on a neutral court which is a huge over adjustment in just a few weeks time.  After that loss, Texas head coach Shaka Smart was fairly blunt and straight to the point.  "I've never been as disappointed as I am right now," said Smart, who is 66-65 overall at Texas, and 31-41 in the Big 12. "I know our players are a better than they played today, I know we're a better team than we played today. It doesn't matter, you've got to go do it."  The Longhorns had no idea they’d get another shot at TCU and we expect them to play with an emotional edge here.  Both teams come in having won all 3 of their NIT games at home.  Despite their two losses to TCU, the Longhorns were the better team all season long.  They have a higher power rating, they finished with a better Big 12 record, they were better both offensively and defensively in efficiency (Big 12 games).  If it’s a tight game late and comes down to FT’s the Horns made 75.6% of their freebies on conference play while TCU made just 68%.  Texas was close to having a much better record than 8-10 in the Big 12 as 8 of their 10 losses were by 7 points or less.  TCU, on the other hand, finished 7-11 in league play and 7 of their 11 losses came by 9 points or more.   We definitely feel Texas is the better team and with the added motivation we expect them to get the win on Tuesday night.     

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 80PM ET – The Blazers are battling for the 3rd or 4th seed in the West and home court in the first round of the playoffs. Minnesota is gearing up for the offseason and a little R&R.  Portland lost a key piece to their team when center Nurkic was lost for the season due to a horrific leg injury but Enes Kanter was brought in as an insurance policy if something like this happened. Without Nurkic the Blazers still outrebound Detroit 68-52 in their last outing despite losing. Kanter delivered 20 points and 15 rebounds in 34 minutes for his first double-double since taking over the starting spot. Kanter isn’t Nurkic, but the dropoff isn’t as dramatic as you might think. Minnesota has their own injuries to worry about. The Wolves are without Rose, Teague, Gibson and Covington who are all major contributors. Portland had won 8 of nine games before a loss in Detroit and we expect a bounce back here. The Blazers are 18-9 SU off a loss this year and considering the low nature of this number we expect a SU and ATS win. Portland has some poor early season road numbers but have since improved to 9th in overall road differential at -.1PPG. Again, that’s marginal considering tonight’s circumstances. Portland is on a 10-3 ATS road run and we like them here against a team like Minnesota that has called it a season.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -5.5 over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET – We like the line and money indicators early on here and feel the move on the line is to attract Piston’s backers. We won’t bite and will side with the more desperate Pacers at home off a loss at home. Both are fighting for seeding position in the East but the Pacers are in 5th right now, tied with Boston who holds the tie breaker over them. Despite how Detroit is currently playing, we can’t ignore their 14-24 SU road record or their -3.4PPG differential which was 19th worse in the NBA. Indiana has been fantastic at home this season with a 28-10 SU record and the 3rd best home point differential of +8.9PPG. Indiana played poorly in their last home game against the Magic and will bounce back here. The Pacers are 10-4 SU at home this year off a loss, 3-1 when at home and off a home loss. Earlier this season the Pacers beat the Pistons at home by 37 and we feel they win this game big again, especially considering the Pistons will be without Blake Griffin in this one.

ASA Washington Wizards +11 @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – Washington is officially eliminated from the playoffs, but they continue to play hard with Bradley Beal leading the way. It certainly helps that a few newcomers from the trade deadline are still trying to impress coaches and management. The Wiz are coming off a game a few nights ago in Utah and took the Jazz to the wire before losing 124-128. If they bring that same energy tonight this will be another easy cover. These same two teams recently met in Washington with the Nuggets winning by 5-points. Denver is in a tough spot here as they are coming off two huge road games in Houston and at OKC and have MUCH bigger games on deck with Golden State and then San Antonio. The Nuggets are battling the Warriors for the #1 seed in the West, so they’ll get caught looking ahead to that game, especially since they recently beat this same Wizards team. Denver isn’t playing their best basketball of the season right now with an average negative differential of -6.4PPG in their last five games. Washington has covered 4 of the last five in the series and get another cover here. Grab the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State +2.5 over Duke, Sunday at 5 PM ET

Duke really shouldn’t be here.  They’ve had back to back games go to the wire and each time their opponent (UCF & Va Tech) have missed layups at the buzzer to either win or tie.  Now they face a veteran MSU team that is better than both of those opponents and has won their first 3 tourney games by an average of 16 PPG.  Sparty has won 13 of their last 14 games with their only loss during that stretch coming by 2 points.  While Michigan State is peaking right now, we’re not so sure we can say the same about Duke.  They are 9-3 their last 12 games and nearly half of those wins (4) have come by 2 points or less.  Looking at season long numbers a strong argument could be made that the Spartans are simply a better team overall.  They are definitely a better shooting team ranking 13th in eFG% while Duke ranks 52nd in that category.  The Spartans are the much better 3-point shooting team making 38% from beyond the arc (21st nationally) compared to just 30% for Duke (329th nationally).  They also make 75% of their FT’s compared to Duke’s 68%.  Defensively they are much closer with MSU ranking 4th nationally in eFG% defense while Duke ranks 9th in that category.  Rebounding edge also goes to Michigan State with a +9.5 rebounding margin compared to Duke’s sitting at +6.0.  MSU is great on the offensive boards (21st) while Duke struggles on the defensive boards (240th).  The Devils will also potentially be without their 3rd leading scorer, Cam Reddish, who has a bad knee and will be a game time decision.  This one also falls into the same system we had yesterday with Texas Tech.  Elite 8 underdogs of +4.5 or less who are also the lower seed are now 20-8 SU and 19-7-1 ATS dating back to 2003.   Our power ratings have this game even so getting 2-points is some solid value. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia -4 over Purdue, Saturday at 8:49 PM ET

Purdue has simply shot the lights out the last 2 games beating Villanova & Tennessee and shooting 54% from the field in the process.  They’ve hit a ridiculous 31 of 61 from 3 point range for 51%.  Even with that performance, they needed a stupid foul by UT on a 3-point shot at the buzzer and then OT to beat the Vols.  Can they keep that red hot shooting in tact here?  We highly doubt it.  After facing 2 decent but not great defenses (UT ranked 42 in defensive efficiency & Nova ranked 81st) the Boilers now face a defense that definitely can slow them down.  UVA ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency, 5th in eFG% defense, and 2nd in 3-point FG% defense.  Purdue lives beyond the arc and now they face a team that allows their opponents to make just 28% on the season.  No way Purdue continues their 50% barrage from deep here.  UVA has kind of done the opposite.  While Purdue has needed huge offensive performances to move on, the Cavs have not played very well offensively yet they continue to win.  On Thursday they shot just 35% overall and a very poor 27% from 3-point range, yet still beat a red hot Oregon team by 4 points.  This UVA team is definitely capable of breaking out offensive as they rank 3rd nationally in offensive efficiency, 20th in eFG%, and 7th in 3-point FG%.  They may just break out here vs a Purdue defense that allowed Tennessee to make 50% of their shots on Thursday.  If Virginia gets their offense going here, we think they will, we don’t see how Purdue can win this game.  This is a bad match up for

ASA 10* play on: Detroit Pistons -5 over Portland Trailblazers, 7:00PM ET – These same two teams just met in Portland where the Blazers won by 5. Detroit was in the middles of a 5-game road trip while the Blazers had 2 days rest. Now the roles have flipped. The Pistons are home and rested, Portland is off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in four nights.  The Pistons recently played three of the best teams in the West on the road (Denver, Golden State and this Portland team) and lost all three by a combined 15 points. Prior to that road trip, the Pistons had won 9 straight home games with 4 of those nine victories coming against other playoff teams and they just beat another in the Magic. Detroit is 24-13 SU at home on the season with a +2.9-point differential. Portland had center Nurkic in their most recent win over Detroit, but he has since been lost for the season with a horrible leg injury. Without Nurkic and another starter McCollum the Blazers depth will be tested in this back-to-back situation. Detroit is playing with revenge and have done extremely well at home against teams with winning records (6-0 ATS run). Portland now 0-4 ATS streak when playing without rest. Lay the points!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas Tech +4.5 over Gonzaga, Saturday at 6:09 PM ET

What a match up we have in this one.  It’s the #1 offense in the nation in adjusted efficiency (Gonzaga) vs the #1 defense in the nation in adjusted efficiency (Texas Tech).  We like the top defense to keep this very close so we’ll take the points.  We were on Florida State +8 vs Gonzaga on Thursday as we felt the Noles defense would slow down the Zags while doing enough offensively to keep it close.  Well we were half right as FSU held Gonzaga to just 40% shooting.  The problem was, the Seminoles shot just 39% and make only 3 of their 20 three point attempts (15%).  The game ended with the Zags winning 72-58, however it was much closer than that.  It was actually just a 4-point lead for Gonzaga with less than 3:30 remaining and FSU went on to make only 1 of their final 7 shots.  The Seminoles also started fouling with 2:00 minutes remaining leading to 7 points from the FT for Gonzaga in the final minutes.  If Gonzaga struggled offensive vs FSU they will definitely have problems against Tech.  The Red Raiders held a very good Michigan team to only 44 points on 32% shooting on Thursday on their way to a 19 point blowout win.  They are playing fantastic basketball winning by margins of 15, 20, and 19 points in the Big Dance.  They have covered the spread by more than 40 points in those 3 games combined.  They have held those 3 opponents (Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, and Michigan) to just 35% combined shooting.  Gonzaga simply isn’t accustomed to facing top notch defensive teams in the WCC and it showed on Thursday vs FSU.  We expect Tech’s offense, which has shot 48% in the tourney, to cause some problems for the Zags.  Tech also falls into a very strong historical spot here.  Since 2003, Elite 8 underdogs of 4.5 points or more and if they are the lower seed are 17-8 SU and 18-6-1 ATS (75%)!  That falls right on Texas Tech in this one.  We think Tech has a great shot to win so we’ll take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee -1 over Purdue, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET

We were on UT last weekend and they jumped all over Iowa and at one point had a 25-point lead and they were up 21 at half.  The Vols came out in the 2nd half and were tentative and absolutely played to protect the lead rather than staying aggressive.  They went on to beat Iowa by 6 in OT and we’re pretty sure they learned their lesson.  Tonight if they get a lead, which we expect them to do, we do not look for them to back off.  They are facing a Purdue team that is very efficient offensively (5th in the country) but relies way too heavily on 1-player as we’ve discussed in the past.  Carsen Edwards has taken nearly 35% of Purdue’s shots this season and 41% of their shots thus far in the NCAA tourney.  If he is off, this team is in trouble.  He was not off in their most recent game last weekend as the Boilers plastered Villanova with Edwards scoring 42 points on 21 shot attempts.  He was struggling heading into that game shooting just 27% overall his previous 4 games.  Tennessee has a number of athletic defenders they can run at Edwards so we expect him to struggle a bit in this one.  As good as the Boilers are on offense, the Vols are better.  They rank 3rd nationally in adjusted efficiency and 21st in eFG%, both better than Purdue.  They are much tougher to guard with 5 players averaging more than 10 PPG which is the opposite of Purdue.  While the Boilers rely on making 3-pointers, the Vols are one of the top interior teams in the country with 55% of their points coming from inside the arc (25th nationally) and they make nearly 56% of their 2-pointers (20th nationally).  Sometimes deep shooting doesn’t travel quite as well so we trust a team that will be more reliable inside the arc.  If Purdue is red hot from 3 and Edwards goes off, UT is in trouble.  We don’t expect that to happen so we’ll side with Tennessee to win this one.

ASA play on: Detroit Pistons -3 over Orlando Magic, 7:00PM ET – Orlando is off a HUGE win over Miami which vaulted them into 8th in the East and we expect a letdown here. In the game against the Heat, the Magic shot below 42% as a team but had a huge rebounding advantage over Miami. They won’t have that advantage here against a Pistons team that is 13th in the league in total rebounds. We laid -4.5 points the other night with the Heat who were 8th in the East at the time, so we’ll lay less points with a better Detroit team at home and off a few losses. The Pistons just played three of the best teams in the West (Denver, Golden State and Portland) and lost all three by a combined 15 points. Prior to their current road trip, the Pistons had won 9 straight home games with 4 of those nine victories coming against other playoff teams. Another indicator of line value here is the spread on two of those home games when they were favored by -1.5 points over the Raptors and -2.5 over the Pacers. Granted, the Magic are hot right now, but they’re not nearly as good as those two team but are in a similar price range. Orlando has won six in a row but four of those W’s came against Cleveland, Atlanta, New Orleans and Memphis. Orlando won 5 of their last six games at home and now travel to Detroit who is 23-13 SU at home on the season with a +2.9-point differential.  Prior to this current hot streak, the Magic had lost 4 straight on the road and are 2-5 SU their last seven away with all five losses coming by more than tonight’s spread.

ASA play on: Miami Heat -4.5 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – Both teams are on impressive runs right now and battling for their playoff lives. Orlando currently sits 9th in the East but is only a ½ game out of 8th which is held by the Heat. Miami is in the better scheduling situation as have been off for a few days, while the Magic are off a HUGE upset win over the 76ers last night. Orlando has won five in a row but four of those W’s came against Cleveland, Atlanta, New Orleans and Memphis. Miami has been equally as hot with a 9-3 SU record their last twelve games. Most recently the Heat have impressive wins over Detroit, Charlotte, Oklahoma City and San Antonio. Granted, the Heat don’t have great differential at home this season but when we look at recent trends for them, we see they have impressive wins over 2 other teams from the East that are like the Magic. The Heat beat Charlotte by 18 and the Pistons by 34 in South Beach and both are near Orlando in terms of several key statistical categories. Orlando’s impressive 5-game winning streak has come at home. Prior to that, the Magic have lost 4 straight on the road and are 1-5 SU their last six away with all five losses coming by more than tonight’s spread. Miami is 1-2 against the Magic this season which makes this game even more important for them as they would lose the tie-breaker with a loss tonight AND trail the Magic in the standings. D-Wade and the Heat get a much-needed home win by double-digits tonight!

ASA 10* PLAY ON Virginia Tech -8.5 over Liberty, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET

We think the line value is on Va Tech here.  The power rating difference between Va Tech & Liberty is in the exact same range as the difference between Duke vs UCF along with UNC vs Washington.  While those spreads sit at -13 and -12 respectively, the Hokies are laying only 9.  We used Va Tech vs St Louis in the first round and the Hokies were up 40-18 at half but got complacent in the 2nd stanza and won by 14.  We mentioned in that analysis we feel VT is underrated.  They rank in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They are one of only 8 teams that can make that claim and the other 7 teams are all #1 or #2 seeds.  Liberty trailed for much of their opener vs Miss State but made a bunch of 3’s late for their comeback 4-point win, which was their largest lead of the game.  They are facing an MSU defense that isn’t great and they are terrible at defending the 3 (254th nationally) so it was a solid match up for the Liberty offense.  They won’t have nearly as much success today vs a very athletic and active VT zone defense.  Tech also received a huge boost on Friday when starting PG and leader Justin Robinson returned after missing 12 straight games to end the season.  Robinson gave them a solid 28 minutes (9 points) and should play even better today with a game under his belt.  Liberty got their big comeback win on Friday, their first every tourney win.  Today we think they are in big trouble vs a VaTech team that is the best team they’ve played this season.  Similar to what happened to Murray State yesterday (we were on FSU in that game) we see a potential blowout here.  Take Va Tech.   

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee (-7.5) over Iowa, Sunday at 12:10 PM ET

We played against Iowa on Friday vs Cincinnati and it looked great early on as Cincy jumped out to a 13 point first half lead.  The Bearcats still led by 5 at halftime and then Iowa shot the lights out in the 2nd half.  For the game the Hawkeyes shot almost 55% including 11 three pointers.  The Hawks don’t score all that effectively inside (46% of their points – 281st nationally) and Tennessee is great defensively inside the arc allowing teams to shoot just 44% (14th nationally).  That means Iowa better be making their 3’s again to stay in this game and we just don’t see them shooting like that again vs this talented Tennessee team.  Let’s not forget that the Vols could have easily been a #1 seed and they were ranked #1 in the nation for much of the season.  This line does not reflect that as they are laying just -8 vs an Iowa team that sans their performance yesterday, simply wasn’t playing well losing 6 of their previous 8 games, with 4 of those 6 losses coming by double digits.  The Vols can score from all levels as they are very good inside the arc but have shooters that can score from deep.  They prefer to score inside which turns into a terrible match up for Iowa’s defense.  UT hits 56% of their shots from 2-point land (19th nationally) and they score 56% of their points inside the arc (20th nationally).  Iowa’s interior defense has been poor all season as they allow opponents to make almost 54% of their shots inside the 3-point line (309th nationally).  The Vols should feast inside and as we said they are more than capable from deep as well making 36% of their 3’s.  They also make 77% of their FT’s so if they get to the line they will take advantage there as well.  UT is better offensively (3rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency) and much better defensively.  Iowa had their out of the ordinary shooting game on Friday and they come back to earth here.  That leads to a double digit win for UT.

ASA play on: #528 Portland Trailblazers -5 over Detroit Pistons, 10PM ET – First we’ll apologize for an abbreviated analysis today. The NCAA Tourney has us extremely busy. But rest assured we’ve done all the work as usual with our handicapping process but are limited with time for write ups. Both teams have plenty to play for as they battle for better position in their perspective conferences. We are aware of Detroit’s current 15-5 SU record but they haven’t been a good road team all season long with a 14-21 SU away mark. The Pistons road point differential of -3.2PPG is 16th in the league and a big reason why is their offensive struggles away from home (23rd in road OEFF ratings). Portland has been fantastic at home this season with a 27-9 SU record and an average differential of +8.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating on their home court this season, averaging 1.170 points per possession. Taking a closer look at Detroit’s road results we see they’ve struggled against good teams on the road. Against playoff teams recently they lost at Miami by 34, Brooklyn by 28, San Antonio by 12, at Boston by 8 and at Utah by 6-points. Portland has had some impressive home wins lately against some of the best teams in the West and most recently beat a Pacers team at home by 8 who is rated better than the Pistons in the East. Even without McCollum we like the Blazers to get a double-digit home win here. Lay it!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Villanova +4 over Purdue, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET

Our power rating has Purdue favored by 2 in this game so we feel we’re getting a full possession of value.  We went against the Boilers on Thursday and missed by a half point.  ODU was +12.5 in that game, trailed by 9 with 4:00 remaining and made one shot the rest of the way losing by 13.  We still contend Purdue is overrated right now.  They didn’t play great down the stretch losing twice to Minnesota and playing a number of close games on the road down the stretch losing @ Maryland and barely beating Indiana & Nebraska.  The Boilers rely way too heavily on one guy.  Carsen Edwards.  He took 611 shots leading into last night’s game where he was 7 for 23 (30%).  He shooting just barely over 25% his last 4 games combined as he is clearly wearing down.  The problem with Thursday’s game is ODU is a poor shooting team and they struggled to score so they could not take advantage of Edward’s struggles.  We thought it would be a very low scoring game and ODU could keep it within the 12.5 points which they almost did despite shooting just 26% for the game and 24% from beyond the arc.  Purdue won’t get that luxury with Nova.  The Boiler defense goes from defending the 240th most efficient offense to the 16th most efficient with Villanova.  Both teams shoot a lot of 3’s and both shoot them pretty well.  Nova defends the arc better which should help here.  The Cats are more balanced and led by 2 seniors (Booth & Paschall) who started on last year’s National Championship team.  They are led by possibly the best coach in college basketball, Jay Wright who’s won 2 of the last 3 National Championships, and you can bet they’ll be prepared here.  This team knows how to get it done at tourney time and we think they’ll win this game outright.  Take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida State -4.5 over Murray State, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET

The value is absolutely on FSU here.  They are favored by 4.5 to 5 which is the same number Marquette was favored over Murray State.  FSU power rates to the 16th best team nationally while Marquette is 31st.  The Eagles were faltering at the end of the season losing 5 of 6 coming into the Dance.  Because people saw what Murray did to an overrated Marquette team, they are now the talk of the town.  FSU is a different animal.  While Marquette had nobody that could guard Ja Morant, the Noles have plenty of big perimeter defenders with all starters measuring 6’4 or taller.  Not only are they big (12th tallest team in the nation) they defend very well (11th nationally in defensive efficiency).  This will be the best defense the Racers have faced this season.  Don’t expect them to shoot 53% from the field as they did they did the other night vs a Marquette defense that had no chance to contain Morant.  FSU can get it done offensively as well (32nd in offensive efficiency) with 7 players that average between  7 PPG and 13 PPG.  The Noles should control the boards as well in this one.  They are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation while Murray ranks 223rd in defensive rebounding.  Not that FSU needed any extra motivation but they have it here.  One of the leaders, Phil Cofer who is currently injured, lost his father on Thursday after their win and you can guarantee this team will play as hard as they have all season on Saturday.  Murray State is a very nice story but to give you an idea of where they stand, based on power ratings, they would be the 10th best team in the ACC, just behind Syracuse.  They had a nice win on Thursday which was a perfect situation for them playing a faltering team with nobody to slow down Morant.  FSU is a different animal and we like the Noles to roll here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia Tech -10 over St Louis, Friday at 9:55 PM ET

This is a terrible match up for a St Louis team that really shouldn’t even be in this tourney.  The Billikens were the 4th best team in the A10 this year but made a 4 wins in 4 days run in the conference tourney to get in.  First of all that’s not a great situation to begin with as far as STL’s depth is concerned.  They are a very thin team (341st in depth) and they will now be playing their 5th game in 9 days.  They are a terrible shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG%, 327th in 3-point % (30.8%) and dead last in FT % (59%).  Tonight they face one of the best defenses in the nation as VT ranks 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency.  The Billikens aren’t used to playing top notch defenses as they faced just 4 top 50 defenses (adjusted efficiency) the entire season and averaged 60 PPG in those games.  Tech has a mammoth edge offensively in this game where they rank 7th nationally in eFG% and that’s with a majority of their games in the ACC which has 10 top 50 defenses.  Tech also lights it up from 3-point land hitting 39% which ranks 9th nationally.  The Hokies are tough to guard with 4 players averaging between 13 and 17 PPG.  They should also get a boost tonight (both on the court and emotionally) when their leader, point guard Justin Robinson (14 PPG), returns from injury.  He’s been out since February 1st and while we don’t expect a ton of production from him in his first game back, just having him back on the court will be a lift for his teammates.  With this total set at 126, the oddsmakers expect a final score in the 68-58 range.  We think Va Tech gets into the 70’s here while we have a hard time seeing St Louis getting to that number of 58 here.  Take Virginia Tech tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State +5 over Buffalo, Friday at 4 PM ET

We were on ASU in their first 4 game vs St Johns and the game was never really in doubt.  The Devils never trailed and led by as many at 18 points.  We felt ASU was going to be a very dangerous team in this tourney if they got in.  They had some ups and downs during the Pac 12 season – although they finished 2nd by themselves behind Washington – but they are very talented.  If focused and motivated they showed what they can do beating Kansas early in the season when the Jayhawks were ranked #1.  They have NBA talent on their team in Dort & Cheatham and they are tough to guard with 4 guys averaging 11+ PPG.  We respect Buffalo and feel they are very good, however we also feel they are overrated coming into this tourney.  They breezed through the MAC to a 16-2 record, however we felt all year the MAC is simply a poor Division 1 league.  The MAC has just 2 teams ranked in the top 100 (Toledo & Buffalo) and Toledo has already been whipped by 14 @ Xavier in the NIT.  The other MAC team that has played thus far in the post-season is Central Michigan and they lost by 14 @ DePaul (the lowest rated team in the Big East) and gave up 100 points in the process.  The MAC is proving us correct thus far.  The Bulls simply haven’t played a team anywhere close to as talented as Arizona State since mid December and that was a 103-85 loss to Marquette.  Their best win was @ Syracuse which was solid and then their next best non-conference win was in OT vs West Virginia which looked great at the time but WVU turned out to be one of the 2 worst teams in the Big 12.  Many talk about the 5 vs 12 upsets over the years but they should be talking about the 6 vs 11.  The 11 seeds are 21-19 SU and 26-14 ATS the last 40.  Better yet, when the 6 seed is from a mid major conference (Buffalo) and the 12 seed is from a Power 5 conference (ASU) the 6 seed is 1-14 ATS!  We like Arizona State to pull off this upset and move on.  Take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Cincinnati -3.5 over Iowa, Friday at 12:15 PM ET

We love this match up for Cincy.  The Bearcats were the 2nd best team in the AAC all season long behind Houston.  They beat Houston in the AAC Championship game by double digits which was extremely impressive as the Cougars are a 3-seed in the NCAA with a 31-3 record.  They dominated their game vs Houston holding the lead from start to finish.  Now they face an Iowa team that simply played terrible down the stretch.  It could be argued the Hawkeyes were one of the worst teams in the Big 10 since mid February.  They lost 6 of their last 8 games and even their wins weren’t impressive with 4 of their last 5 W’s were very close coming down to the final minute of the game.  We were looking to go against the Hawkeyes in this tourney and we feel we have a perfect match up to do so here.  Iowa is one of the worst defensive teams in the NCAA field ranking 112th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 207th in eFG% defense.  Compare that to Cincinnati’s defense (28th and 52nd in those categories) and you’ll see the Bearcats have a big advantage defensively.  Cincy can struggle at times offensively, however they looked like the caught fire in the AAC tourney on that end of the court putting up 1.30, 1.05, and 1.13 points per possession in their 3 games.  That final number (1.13 PPP) was against a Houston defense that is 11th in the nation defensively allowing just 0.91 PPP.  Now facing a porous Iowa defense, we like the Cincinnati offense to play well again.  The Bearcats should also get a number of 2nd chances as they are 4th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage facing an Iowa team that ranks 221st in defensive rebounding.  This game is also being played in Columbus OH so this should have a home game feel for Cincinnati which is only 100 miles away.  Iowa spent the early part of the Big Ten season beating up on teams in the lower half of the league.  It caught up to them down the stretch as they were just 2-9 SU in the Big 10 versus teams that made the NCAA tourney.  The Bearcats are the tougher team with the better defense and better rebounding.  They’ll hold their own offensively and cover this one.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Old Dominion +12.5 over Purdue, Thursday at 9:50 PM ET

ODU won 3 down to the wire games in CUSA tourney to get here by margins of 1, 2, and 6 points. Purdue was upset by Minnesota 75-73 in the Big Ten Quarterfinals and lost to the Gophs twice down the stretch. The Monarchs are a slow team (#325 in tempo) that plays very good defense. They hold teams to 0.96 PPP and they rank 14th nationally limiting opponents to an eFG% of just 45.6%. They will absolutely turn this game into a grinder. They do have solid guard play with Stith and Carver leading the team in scoring (both 16 PPG). The Boilers shoot 3’s. That’s what they do. Unfortunately their main man Carsen Edwards has taken over 600 shots on the year (almost double the next highest for Purdue) and he is wearing down. He's made just 25% of this 3 point attempts over his last 3 games.  ODU's guards are physical and play very good defense so Edwards may struggle again. Purdue relies heavily on the 3 point shot and the Monarchs are solid defending the arc allowing just 32%.  While ODU does struggle on offense, they shouldn't need to do much on that end to cover this big number.  This is expected to be a very low scoring game with the total set at 126 to getting this many points is the play. OLD DOMINION

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida +2.5 over Nevada, Thursday at 6:50 PM ET

This is a battle of opposite styles as Nevada wants to play fast (#88 in adjusted tempo) and Florida wants a slow, half court game (#346 in adjusted tempo).  This total sits at 132.5 so that tells us the Gators will get the tempo they want which we agree.  A lot easier to slow a fast team down than speed up a slow team.  The Gators were underwhelming this season playing to just a 9-9 SEC mark and 19-15 overall.  They are better than their record and that tells you why a team that is 27-4 (Nevada) is favored by just 2 points over a team that is 19-15 (Florida).  The Gators finished 8th in the SEC yet they are the 28th ranked team nationally (power rating).  They are very good defensively with an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 14th in the nation.  Nevada won 24 of their first 25 games this year but were just 5-3 in their final 8 games and trending downward in our opinion.  Lost in the MWC semi-finals to San Diego State, their 2nd loss at the hands of the Aztecs this season.  Senior forward Jordan Caroline (17 PPG & 10 RPG) missed the game vs SDSU due to an Achilles issue but will be back for this game but not at 100%.  Nevada has a very thin bench and they rely almost exclusively on their starters + 1 sub.  Nevada played only 3 games the entire season vs teams that made the NCAA tourney.  They were 2-1 splitting with conference rival Utah State and beating Arizona State by 6 in the non-conference.  Florida played the MUCH tougher schedule and seems to be peaking.  Take the Gators
 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State -2 over St Johns, Wednesday at 9:10 PM ET

These two were heading in opposite directions down the stretch.  ASU won 6 of their last 8 games with their only 2 losses coming at the hands of red hot Oregon who has now won and covered 8 games in a row.  The Devils played the Ducks tougher than anyone on the Pac 12 tourney losing by 4 in overtime.  That’s rather impressive as the Ducks beat all of their other 3 opponents in the Pac 12 tourney by double digits including beating regular season champ Washington by 20 points.  They were also the much more consistent team this year finishing alone in 2nd in  the Pac 12 with a 12-6 record.  St Johns, on the other hand, is sitting in this position mainly due to their 14-1 start to the season.  That gave them quite a buffer and they needed it as they went 7-11 the rest of the way.  The Johnnies have lost 5 of their last 7 games including setbacks at the hands of DePaul, Providence, and Xavier (twice) all non-NCAA tourney teams.  Their top scoring guard Ponds is shooting only 42% from the field his last 5 games and it looks to us like he is starting to wear down after carrying the load for much of the season.  Ponds is a slight 6’1 and 175 pounds and the physical Big East has taken it’s toll.  He’s been held below his scoring average (20 PPG) in 7 of the last 9 games.  ASU gets to the line as much as any team in this tourney with over 22% of their points this year coming from the charity stripe (21st nationally).  That’s bad news for St Johns as they foul A LOT.  Expect the Sun Devils to live at the foul line tonight.  Another huge advantage for ASU will be on the boards ranking 38th nationally in rebound margin compared to the Johnnies who are 337th in that category.  That should lead to a number of extra opportunities in this game.  In a potential close game if ASU can get some extra shot attempts up due to their rebounding advantage and end up at the FT line more often, that will make a huge difference.  ASU was in this play in game last year and lost to Syracuse so a little extra motivation for them along with the familiarity of playing in this situation.  The Johnnies haven’t won an NCAA tourney game since 2000 and they may just be happy to be here.  Lay the small number with Arizona State.

ASA play on: Washington Wizards -2.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Somebody in the Bulls front office needs to sit down head coach Jim Boylan and ask him what the hell he is doing? The Bulls currently sit a game and a half in front of the Cavs for a better chance at securing a better pick in this year’s draft. In any event, the Bulls return home off a 3-game road trip and are off a win in their previous game so expect a letdown here. Chicago has NO home court advantage as they own the worst point differential in the league on their home court of -8.7PPG. Chicago is the least efficient offensive team in the league at home and the 2nd worst in defensive efficiency. Granted the Wiz have been a horrible road team but they are still mathematically alive for the 8th seed in the East and have something to play for. Washington comes into this game off a loss and a horrendous shooting night by Bradley Beal so expect a concentrated effort here. Washington has won 3 of their last five games overall and are a healthier unit coming into this game. We like the added incentive of a few former Bulls (Portis and Parker) who were traded to the Wizards at the trade deadline, facing their previous team. Both have played much better since the deal and both were instrumental in a 9-point win here earlier this month. Take the better team with more to play for in this match up and lay the short number.

ASA play on: LA Clippers -4.5 over Indiana Pacers, 10:30PM ET – We’re not being stubborn here, we’re betting numbers and value, and the best value on the board today is the Clippers. Yes, we’ve lost with them twice in a row, but they had both games covered until very late in the game before the Bulls and Nets got back door covers. The Clippers are playing great right now and look like a tough out in the Western Conference playoffs this year. They have won 10 of their last 13 games, including 6-1 L7. In their last five games, which includes a loss, they have an average point differential of +4.4PPG. Those ten wins in this current run for the Clippers have come by an average of 12.1PPG and ALL but one of those victories were by more than tonight’s spread. The Pacers are in a tough spot here coming off a close loss in Portland last night, playing their 3rd in four nights (which includes a game in the higher altitude of Denver) and 4th game in six days. Their last three games have come against the much tougher Western Conference too. Both teams are fighting for a better seeding spot in their Conference, but the Clippers have been at home, are rested and should be focused off two straight close wins. The Pacers 22nd ranked road defensive efficiency unit catches up to them here against a Clippers offense that ranks 1st in efficiency their last five games.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Hofstra +9.5 over NC State - Tuesday at 7 PM ET on ESPN2

You have to wonder what NC State’s motivation level will be here?  They were expecting to get into the Big Dance and their Athletic Director was complaining after the snub.  Keep in mind they were in the NCAA tourney last year so it will be tough for the returning players to get overly excited about the NIT.  We’re guessing the mindset of the Wolfpack players tonight won’t be great.  There is more to it than that however.  This is a dangerous match up for NC State.  Hofstra is a very good team that finished the season 27-7 and at one point during the season won 16 consecutive games.  They are a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up that is excited to be playing a Power 5 team in the opening round.  Hofstra is a very good offensive team scoring 83 PPG which makes it very tough to blow this team out.  Only 2 of their 7 losses came by more than 10 points and their worst loss of the year was a 14 point setback.  They shoot the ball very well ranking 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 10th in eFG% and 12th in 3-point FG%.  They get to the line a lot with over 21% of their points coming from the charity stripe and when they do they hit 80% as a team (2nd best in the nation).  Hofstra also protects the ball very well turning it over only 14% of the time which is the 4th fewest in the country.  That’s a bad mix for an NC State defense that pressures the ball, thrives on turnovers, and fouls a lot.  The Wolpack weren’t a great home team this year losing 4 games while Hofstra is comfortable on the road where they were 12-6 this year (away & neutral).  This game is being played at Reynolds Coliseum which is actually not the normal home court for NC State but home to the women’s basketball program.  The men only played one game here this year and that was way back on Dec 5th.  We like Hofstra to give NC State all they can handle tonight and easily cover this spread.

ASA play on: LA Clippers -6 over Brooklyn Nets 9PM ET – We were counting the Clippers as a “winner” in their last game against the Bulls, as they were up 15-points late, but then let the backdoor cover happen. Count that as a lesson learned which won’t happen here against the Nets, especially with the smaller number. Prior to their two most recent games, the Clippers had won 5 games in a row by an average of 14PPG, and they’ve hit 6 of their last seven, all by a margin of more than today’s spread. The Clippers are 16th in home point differential at +3.4PPG, the 10th most efficient home offense but 23rd in home defensive efficiency ratings. LA has been good their past five games as they rank 7th in the league in average point differential (even with a loss in the mix) at +5.4PPG. They also have the best offensive efficiency numbers in that same 5-game span as they average 1.184 points per possession. The Nets are in a touch scheduling situation here as they played last night in Utah and will be playing their 3rd straight road game against a playoff team from the West. Brooklyn was a +7.5-point dog in OKC, plus 9 in Utah and those two teams are within two games of the Clippers in the West. The Nets lost both games by 12 and 16 points. Brooklyn is pretty much entrenched in the 6th – 8th seed in the East so this game isn’t as important to them. The Clippers on the other hand are just 2.5 games out of the 4th seed in the West which would be home court in the first round so they have way more to play for. Brooklyn is just 3-9 SU, 2-10 ATS when playing the second night of a back-to-back this season

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan +1 over Michigan State, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET

MSU took both regular season meetings but we expect the Wolverines to grab a win in the Big Ten Championship game.  These two met just 8 days ago in East Lansing with the winner taking home the Big Ten regular season title.  The Wolverines led by 6 at half but MSU came out with a 25-4 run in the 2nd half to take control.  “We imploded,” said Michigan coach Beilein after the game.  MSU attempted an uncharacteristic 30 FT attempts (just 7 attempts for Michigan) vs a Wolverine defense who fouls less than any team in the Big Ten.  That deficit at the FT line was too much for Michigan to overcome.  Don’t expect Sparty to have that type of an advantage in this one.  In the two meetings this year the Wolverines attempted 23 more combined shots but shot poorly while MSU shot 47% and 50% in their 2 meetings.  We just don’t see the Spartans shooting that well again vs the #1 team in the nation in defensive efficiency as Michigan allows just 86 points per 100 possessions.  MSU point guard Cassius Winston had 2 huge games vs Michigan but he is now banged up with a lingering knee issue and he injured his ankle yesterday so he’s not 100%.  Since losing to the Spartans to close out the season Michigan has rolled up 2 huge wins in this tourney beating Iowa by 21 & Minnesota by 27.  Because of that they were able to spread out their minutes so they should be fresh here.  MSU had two much closer games beating Ohio State by 7 and they Wisconsin by 12, although the Badgers (who shot only 35% and made just 2 of 19 three point attempts) cut the lead to 6 in the 2nd half.  Three of their starters logged 30+ minutes and all 5 played at least 28 minutes.  The Wolverines were hoping to face MSU in the finals and they are extremely motivated here.  We think it will be very tough for the Spartans to beat their in-state rival 3 times in a season.  We like Michigan to win the Big Ten Championship.

ASA play on: #514 Denver Nuggets -7 over Indiana Pacers, 9PM ET – At first glance this line looks high considering the Pacers are a top 4 seed in the East and fighting for their playoff seeding lives. But Denver also has a lot to play for as they sit just one game behind the Warriors for the top overall record in the West. The Nuggets are one of a handful of teams that can win the NBA Championship and as they have 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the league and are 12th in DEFF. Their efficiency numbers at home are even better yet and they win on their home court by an average of 11.2PPG which is the second-best number in the league. The Pacers have some solid road efficiency numbers and an average road differential of -.3PPG which is 9th best but that clearly won’t get a cover today in Denver. When we evaluate the spread on this game, we can compare the Pacers last two road games in Philly and Milwaukee where they were +6 and +10 but got blown out in each. Denver is coming off a very close home win over a bad Dallas team which should serve as a wake-up call here. The Nuggets are 15-8 SU against the East this season and against comparable Eastern Conference teams at home they’ve beaten Philly by 16, Toronto by 8 and Boston by 9. They did lose to the Bucks at home, but Milwaukee is on another level. In usual fashion we will play contrarian here and go opposite of the money. BET DENVER MINUS!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -1 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's Conference USA Tourney Game of the Year

We’ve been on the Hilltoppers a few times this year and follow them very closely.  They are a team that if motivated is very good.  They finished tied for 2nd in CUSA but to give you an idea of how good they can be their wins this year include Wisconsin, St Mary’s (who just beat Gonzaga to win the WCC), Arkansas, and West Virginia.  They have 3 excellent guards to go along with 6’11 Charles Bassey (15 PPG & 10 RPG) in the middle.  Bassey is projected as a potential first round draft pick and their guard Hollingsworth has NBA potential.  This team is easily the most talented in CUSA and now they are motivated.  One more win and they are in the Big Dance. They have cruised to easy wins their first two tourney games including beating Southern Miss yesterday by 11.  USM is the highest rated team in the conference and the Hilltoppers handled them holding the Eagles to 38% shooting and destroying them on the boards (+19).  ODU won the conference but we feel they’ve been overrated all season long.  They struggle on the offensive end (13th in CUSA in eFG%) and they’ve failed to top 70 points in 8 of their last 9 games.  Over their last 5 games the Monarchs are scoring just 57 PPG on 37% shooting.  Unlike WKY, the Monarchs 2 tourney games were both nail biters and games they probably should have lost.  They trailed by 11 points in the 2nd half vs La Tech and came back to win by 1.  ODU’s FIRST lead of the 2nd half came with 4 seconds left in the game!  Then they turned around yesterday and won 61-59 vs UAB in a game they trailed by 9 with just 4:30 remaining!  ODU trailed again with under 10 seconds remaining and won on a bucket (+ foul) with 4 seconds remaining.  Western & Old Dominion met twice this year with ODU winning both.  However both games were @ ODU and the Hilltoppers blew great shots to win in both games.  Their first meeting WKY jumped out to a 21-0 lead but lost by 4.  Their most recent meeting, again on the road for WKY, the Toppers led by 3 with 1:00 remaining and lost by 3.  Because of the way those games played out, Western should be extra motivated here and ODU is primed to get knocked off.  There is a reason the team that finished 2nd in the conference is favored over the team that finished 1st.  Take Western Kentucky.

ASA play on: LA Clippers -8.5 over Chicago Bulls, 10:30PM ET – We successfully played against the Clippers in their last game against the Blazers as they were in a tough scheduling situation. Now with rest, we expect them to return to the form that saw them win 5 games in a row by an average of 14PPG. Included in that five-game winning streak the Clippers beat a similar team to the Bulls, the Knicks, by 21-points when they were favored by 10. The Bulls were officially eliminated from the post season in their last game and it clearly looks like they’ve quit on the season. The Bulls are just 1-5 SU their last six games and the last three losses have come by 8, 23 and 16 points. Their most recent defeat was at home to the Lakers by 16 and the other LA team isn’t nearly as good as this one. Chicago has the 6th worst road point differential in the NBA at minus -7PPG, rank 28th in offensive efficiency on the road and 17th in road defensive efficiency. The Clippers are 16th in home point differential at +3.3PPG, the 10th most efficient home offense but 23rd in home defensive efficiency ratings. LA has been really good their past five games as they rank 2nd in the league in average point differential (even with a loss in the mix) at +8.2PPG. They also have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in that same 5-game span. The Bulls have not covered a came in their last six road contests against a team with a winning percentage greater than .600 and will nothing to play for here, the Bulls get beat by double-digits. Lay the points with the Clippers.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado +3.5 over Washington, Friday at 9 PM ET - Pac 12 Tourney Game of the Year

This line looks like a trap to us.  The team that won the Pac 12 by 3 full games (15-3 record) opened as just a 1.5 point favorite vs a Colorado team that finished tied for 4th?  Not surprisingly the line has moved to -3 as bettors are jumping on Washington based on what we discussed above.  We like Colorado here.  Washington was the most consistent team in the Pac 12 this year no doubt but they are FAR from a very good, finished product type team.  Despite being the best team in the league they are barely ranked inside the top 50 in most power rankings – only about 10 to 15 spots ahead of Colorado in most of those.  The Huskies struggled down the stretch and we think they are very vulnerable right now vs a CU team that has won 10 of their last 12 games.  Over their last 5 games Washington is just 3-2 with their wins coming by 1, 3, and 5 in OT.  Their losses during that stretch came at the hands of California (who finished 8-23 this year – just 3-15 in the Pac 12) and Oregon who won @ UW by 8.  During that 5 games span the Huskies averaged 68 PPG and allowed 68 PPG and 2 of those games came against 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference (Cal & Stanford).  Colorado over their last 5 is outscoring opponents 74-61 while hitting 47% of their shots and holding opponents to 37% from the field.  The Buffs are a solid defensive team (3rd in Pac 12 in PPG allowed) and they are the best defensive rebounding team in the league.  They are confident and dangerous right now.  Washington won both games vs CU this year but we think Colorado takes them down tonight.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -1 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET – This isn’t a good spot for the Thunder as they are off a game last night and have a HUGE game on deck with the Warriors. OKC was lucky to cover last night as the Nets outplayed them for 85% of the game but didn’t get calls late. The Thunder took a lead with 6-minutes to play which then pushed to double-digits and eventually a cover. The Thunder starters logged big minutes last night and OKC’s depth is a concern playing back to back nights. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, but the Pacers situation is a little more desperate as they are just 2-3 SU their past five games. The Pacers have the 3rd best home point differential in the NBA at +8.7PPG which can be attributed to their #1 ranked defensive efficiency unit at home allowing just 1.015 points per possession. You can see for yourself the value in this line as the last time these two teams met in Oklahoma City, the Thunder were favored by 1-point. It looks very easy to take the Thunder on the road here as they are one of the best teams in the West but we’re not about to bet the way Vegas wants us to. Play Indiana at home minus the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Penn State -2 over Minnesota, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

We’ll ride the red hot team here and that is Penn State.  There is a reason the Nittany Lions with a record of 14-17 are favored over a Minnesota team that is 19-12 and fighting for an NCAA bid.  PSU is playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 winning 7 of 10 down the stretch after starting the conference season 0-10.  Even when they lost their first 10 conference games they were very competitive for the most part with 7 of those losses coming by 7 points or less or in OT.  They tied for 10th in conference play but they are power rated as the 6th best team in the Big Ten behind only Michigan St, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Maryland.  PSU’s only losses since February 1st came @ Ohio State by 4 back when the Buckeyes were actually still playing fairly well, @ Purdue who won the Big 10, and @ Wisconsin by 4.  They’ve been fantastic defensively down the stretch holding their last 5 opponents to just 63 PPG on 38% shooting.  They held all 5 of those opponents to 1.00 point per possession or less which is simply great defense.  That defense will be a problem for a Minnesota offense that is shooting barely 40% of their last 5 games and averaged only 60 PPG in road games this season.  Unlike the surging Lions, Minnesota has lost 7 of their last 10 games down the stretch.  They are currently in the Big Dance in most projections but the Gophs do have some pressure on them to not go out right away in the Big 10 tourney giving the committee a reason to possibly leave them out.  PSU is playing loose and with house money.   These two met once this season in Minnesota when Penn State was in the midst of their 10 game losing streak.  Despite that the Lions almost won on the road losing 65-64 blowing an 11 point second half lead.  PSU is playing much better than they were at that time while Minnesota has dropped a notch.  They have one of the top players in the league with Lamar Stevens  (20 PPG) who is very tough to guard inside the paint.  He should eat up a Minnesota defense that ranks 12th in the Big Ten at defending inside the arc allowing 50% shooting by opponents.  Penn State gets the win and cover here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia Tech -1 over Florida State, Thursday at 3:00 PM ET

Tech won easily yesterday beating Miami by a final score of 71-56.  They jumped out to a 23-8 lead midway through the first half and never trailed in the game.  Because of that, they didn’t have to expend any extra energy and were able to get used to the surroundings and shooting back drop at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte.   We think that gives the Hokies an advantage over FSU in this game.  The Noles won 12 of their last 13 games, finished 4th in the ACC one game ahead of Va Tech, are ranked higher in the polls than the Hokies, yet they are underdogs in this game?  There is a reason for that.  FSU played the easiest conference schedule in the ACC this year facing UNC, Duke, and UVA each only once (lost all 3).  Over their final 5 games, FSU was 4-1 but was not overly impressive.  They were blasted by 18 @ UNC, came from 10 down at home to beat Notre Dame (3-15 ACC record) by 7, held on at home to beat NC State by 5, and came from 7 down at half @ Wake (lowest rated team in the ACC) to win by 8.  Their other game during that stretch comes into play here.  That’s because it was a home game for FSU vs this Va Tech team.  The Hokies led by 14 at half and blew the lead losing in OT.  That gives VT some extra motivation here as they were hoping to get this rematch.  The Hokies are one of the top shooting teams in the ACC (2nd in eFG% and 3rd in 3-point %) and they are facing an FSU team that defends the paint well but struggles to defend beyond the arc (12th in the ACC allowing 35% from deep).  VT should also get their fair share of points at the charity stripe as FSU fouls a lot (14th in FGA/FTA) and Tech hits over 78% from the line as a team.  We think both of those things play a huge role here as we expect Va Tech to shoot well again on Wednesday and gets the revenge win.