ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* TCU Horned Frogs (+) over Oklahoma Sooners, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #137

The Sooners are one of the top teams in the nation and they have a fantastic offense. Certainly their offense rates the edge in this match-up but the Horned Frogs have proven they can put up plenty of points too as they are averaging 32 points per game on the season and the keys to the value with this play are many. TCU has the edge on defense in this match-up. Keep in mind that prior to the Sooners miracle comeback win against Baylor last week, they entered the 2nd half of that game having allowed an average of 12 points per quarter over their prior 10 quarters of football. That equates to an average of 48 points per game against the Jayhawks, Cyclones, and the 1st half of the Bears game. Give credit to the Sooners for their huge 2nd half comeback but the defensive edge in this match-up belongs to Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs had two ugly games in terms of points allowed this season but in the other 8 they have allowed an average of only 22.4 points per game. They are dogs of about 18 points in this match-up and they are getting strong play from QB Duggan as he led the way against Texas Tech last week. While the Horned Frogs hung on for a well deserved win last week, the Sooners were fortunate to storm all the way back for their comeback win at Baylor. Also, Oklahoma has their biggest rival, Oklahoma State, on deck and they have failed to cover 5 of the last 7 times when they have the Cowboys on deck. This is a definite sandwich spot for OU off the big win over the previously undefeated Bears and with rival Oklahoma State on deck. Also, the 52 points that OU put up on TCU last year was the most points ever scored in this series. The Horned Frogs defense is ready to make up for that performance here. The Sooners enter this game on a 1-5 ATS run as they continue to be over-valued by the betting markets. Games since mid-October for Oklahoma have included a 7-point loss to Kansas State and 3 wins over Texas, Baylor and Iowa State that have come by a total of 11 points. That means in those 4 Big 12 games OU has a point differential net of just +4 or 1 point per game yet here they are laying more than two touchdowns. We'll take it! 4 of the Horned Frogs 5 SU losses this season have been by a margin of 7 points or less. Per our computer math model, this one will be too! Grab the points with TCU as a big road dog for a Top Play in evening action Saturday.

#194 ASA PLAY ON Tulsa (-) over Houston, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Both teams enter this game with 3-7 records however Tulsa’s 3-7 feels much different than Houston’s 3-7. Tulsa comes off a bye and with some serious momentum after beating a very good UCF team 34-31 as a 15 point dog 2 weeks ago. That was a big win for this program that had come so close a number of times this year vs top tier AAC competition. They’ve played a brutally tough AAC slate facing the top 6 teams in the conference according to our power rankings. Their conference games this year have come against Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF, Tulane, SMU, and Navy. All 6 of those teams have records above .500 on the season the their combined conference record is 28-8. Tulsa took Memphis (5-1 in the AAC) to the wire before losing 42-41 on a FG as time expired. They led SMU (5-1 in the AAC) by 21 points in the 2nd half and lost in OT. They had Cincinnati (6-0 in conference play) on the ropes late down 17-13 late in the 4th quarter but turned the ball over on each of their final 2 possessions in the loss. You get the point. This team is much better than their record. They are also still giving full effort as proven by their win here over UCF 2 weeks ago when Tulsa already knew they could not make it to a bowl game. Now with two weeks of positive energy and solid practices leading into this home finale, we expect them to play very well. Houston is on the opposite end of the spectrum. They played a huge home game vs Memphis last week and jumped out to a 17-7 lead but got boat raced from that point on with the tigers winning 45-27. Houston had only 256 total yards (531 for Memphis) and their last TD came on a blocked punt return. After the game Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen admitted after the game his team ran out of gas around halftime. That’s not a good sign for a team that has to get back up and go on the road this week. On top of that, the loss eliminated Houston from bowl consideration and for a program that has been a to a bowl game for the last 6 seasons, we can see them being flat this weekend. On top of that, they just aren’t very good this year with a 1-5 conference record and their only win coming by just 7 points vs a terrible UConn team. While Tulsa was playing the top tier teams in the league tight for the most part, Houston was not. They lost to Memphis by 18, UCF by 15, and Cincinnati by 15. We realize Tulsa QB Zach Smith is questionable here but we are handicapping this game as if he were out. His backup Seth Boomer started for Tulsa last year and has thrown 200 career passes for 1400 yards so he has plenty of experience. Boomer also stepped in for Smith and played the entire 2nd half of the UCF game and led the Hurricane to a 34-31 win outscoring UCF 17-3 while he was in the game. If Smith ends up playing in this game, that’s simply a bonus. If not, we still love the spot for Tulsa. We look for a big win here.

ASA PLAY ON Texas Longhorns (+) over Baylor Bears, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #177

Texas has won each of the last 4 meetings between these Big 12 rivals and the Longhorns are catching Baylor at the perfect time to make it 5 in a row. The Bears are in a very difficult spot here. Baylor would be suffering unbeaten letdown regardless of how they lost last week but it is the manner in which they were defeated that makes this situation a particularly tough one for the Bears. Baylor had a huge lead of 31-10 at half against Oklahoma last week and then allowed the Sooners to come all the way back for a stunning 34-31 victory. That is a soul-crushing loss when you are an undefeated team. The Bears also managed to score ZERO points in the 2nd half against a Sooners defense that had been torched for at least 41 points in their two preceding games. The Bears clearly will still be licking their wounds here and they are running into a Longhorns defense that is playing much better since they got healthier again. Texas has held their last two opponents each under 25 points. That definitely holds some significance here as the Longhorns are about a 6 point dog in this match-up and, prior to last week's 21 point effort, the Texas offense had not been held below 27 points in any game this season! The Horns are averaging 36 points per game this season and, with the way their D has been playing, the Longhorns have a great shot at the outright upset in this one! While Texas is averaging 36 points a game the Bears have scored more than 33 points in a game just once in their last eight games! You can clearly see the difference in the production level of these two offenses. The road team has covered 8 of the last 11 meetings between these teams. Longhorns head coach Herman has cashed in 16 of the last 19 times his team has been a dog! 11 of the 16 wins have been outright upsets too and that is what we expect here but we'll gladly take the points being offered. Grab the points with Texas as a road dog in afternoon action Saturday.

#122 ASA PLAY ON Indiana (+) over Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a terrible spot for Michigan playing a much improved Indiana team. The Wolverines are off their state rivalry game vs Michigan State and they have their game of the year on deck hosting Ohio State next week. Indiana comes in with a solid 7-3 record with 2 of their losses coming down to the wire (@ PSU & @ MSU) and they only blowout loss coming at the hands of Ohio State which is no surprise. Last week they had Penn State in a very similar situation to Michigan this week and nearly pulled off the road upset. Penn State was coming off a huge game @ Minnesota with Ohio State next. IU lost the game by a TD but outgained the Nittany Lions by 100 yards & put up 462 total yards on a very good PSU defense. That game was on the road and now they get to play a similar spot at home. Michigan has played only one road game in the last month and that was @ Maryland who has been trending downward since mid September. The Wolverines are 2-2 SU on the road and this game will give them their biggest challenge since losing at Penn State in mid October. The Hoosiers should have some confidence facing Michigan at home as the last 3 years this game has been fairly tight with the Wolverines winning by 11, 10, and 7 points. This is IU’s home finale and they don’t have any pressure on them as they are already bowl eligible. We expect them to play very well and they’ve proven they can score with 27 or more points in every game but one (Ohio State) this season. We don’t see Michigan being able to pull away in this game. Also, do the Wolverines have much to play for here? Not really. Their chances to win the Big Ten East are pretty much out the window. If OSU beats PSU this weekend, the Buckeyes clinch the title. If PSU beats OSU, all the Nittany Lions have to do is beat Rutgers next week and they clinch the title. Michigan is on the outside looking in and they have much bigger fish to fry next week facing Ohio State. Take the points in what we think will be a very close game.

FIRST HALF play. Of course if you do not have access to first half line than play the FULL 60 but this is a FIRST HALF line play - #212 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State FIRST HALF LINE (-) over Penn State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We have released 2 first half line plays this year and won both. One of those was this Ohio State team @ Nebraska where they led 38-0 at half. This is a game where we do like the Bucks, however laying 18.5 for the full game is a bit too risky. It’s possible they could be up 24+ and a late meaningless score by PSU could do us in. However, we’re confident they’ll get out to a fast start and look to bury the Nittany Lions early as they do with every team they play. In fact, in their Big Ten games this year, OSU has outscored their opponents 206 to 26 for an average halftime score of 29.5 to 3.7. That’s Big Ten only. Add in their non-conference games and the halftime margins go up. Penn State comes in overrated in our books. They have a 9-1 record but they have been outgained in half of their games this season (5). While OSU is simply destroying every Big Ten opponent (every conference win by at least 24 points), Penn State has had 4 conference wins by 7 points or less. Last week they held on to beat Indiana at home winning by just 7. Again, we like OSU to roll in this game but are more confident they’ll jump on this PSU team in the first half and go into the break with a substantial lead. Take Ohio State (-) in the first half.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Wyoming Cowboys (-) over Colorado State Rams, Friday at 9:30 PM ET: Game #114

Wyoming fell just short at Utah State last week but they are in a good situation to bounce right back this week.  The Cowboys are back home where they are 5-0 this season and this is their home finale.  Wyoming is going to go all out here to finish this season with a perfect record at home. The line on this game as of Thursday afternoon is a 6.5 and we look for the Cowboys to win by at least a TD (our forecast is two TDs) in this one.  The margin of victory for Wyoming in their 5 home wins this season is 17.6 points per win.  Each of the Cowboys last 3 home wins have come by 13 points or more.  Colorado State is facing the reality that a bowl game is highly unlikely.  Yes the Rams can still become bowl eligible with two wins to close out the season but their remaining schedule is this road game at Wyoming and then a date with Boise State!  The handwriting is on the wall for the Rams after they got blasted at home by Air Force last week.  That being said, this is a difficult situation in which to try and rally the troops.  While the Cowboys are allowing just 15.4 points per game at home this season, the Rams are allowing 38.6 points per game on the road.  5 of Colorado State's 6 losses this season have come by a double digit margin.  The average margin of defeat for the Rams is 15 points per loss.  Given all of the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for the Cowboys to win this one by a margin of two touchdowns.  Colorado State led Air Force 14-10 at the half last week in a game that would have given them their 5th victory and a better chance at getting that key number of 6 wins for bowl eligibility.  The fact the Rams fell apart in the 2nd half and got outscored by a margin of 28-7 (at home too!) is the type of tough loss that is nearly impossible to bounce back from.  The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS the last 7 times they have been a home favorite in a Mountain West match-up.  We look for them to get the cash again in that role here!  Lay the points with Wyoming as a home favorite in evening action Friday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Denver Nuggets -5 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET – In our opinion Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in the NBA so it’s hard to believe his record off a SU loss is just 20-18 SU since the start of last season. Boston has gotten off to a fantastic 11-3 start this season but depth is a concern, especially in this situation with it being their 5th straight road game and the higher altitude of Denver. The Celtics have struggled with their shooting of late and we feel it catches up to them here. Boston has hit less than 42% from the field in four straight games. The Nuggets defensive efficiency rating is 4th best in the NBA and they are holding foes to under 43% shooting in their last five games. Denver got off to a slow start but are hitting their stride with wins in 7 of their last eight games which includes home wins over Miami, Philly and Houston who are all comparable to the Celtics. Denver is 44-12 SU at home since the start of last season with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. Lay the points.  

ASA play on: Houston Texans -3.5 over Indianapolis Colts, 8:20PM ET – This is a huge game for both teams as it may decide the AFC South. From a situational standpoint we must take the Texans, at home, on a short week and playing with same season revenge as they lost in Indy a few weeks ago. Not too mention, the Texans are off a HORRIBLE showing against the Ravens last week. But this game will be different as they don’t face a mobile QB like Lamar Jackson who threw for 222 yards, 4 TD’s and rank for another 86. The Colts are off a big win against Jacksonville at home with Jacoby Brissett throwing for just 148 total yards, 1 passing TD and 1 INT. These two teams have played nearly identical schedules yet the Colts net yards per play differential is minus -0.3 while the Texans is even. Houston relies heavily on QB Watson who has 8 TD’s and zero INT’s in his last two home games with 705 passing yards. We like the home team here and will lay the points.

ASA 10* play on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – These two teams have met on this floor already this season with the Raptors coming out on top by 9-points as a 5-point favorite. That was the 5th straight time the Raptors have beaten the Magic and there is no reason to think that streak ends tonight. Orlando hasn’t won a road game this season and have a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG when away from home. Historically the Raptors have had some of the best numbers at home and this year their average point differential of +13.8PPG is second in the league. Much has been made of the Magic’s improved defensive efficiency numbers that rank them 9th in the NBA but Toronto has a better points per possession defense allowing just 1.030PPP which ranks them 5th. Orlando isn’t nearly as good as the Raptors on the other end of the court as Toronto ranks 10th in offensive efficiency, Orlando 24th. Yes, the Raptors don’t have Kyle Lowry in the lineup but VanVleet and Powell will pick up the slack in the backcourt. Lay the points with Toronto tonight.

ASA 10* play on: Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET – The line on this game smells fishy which means we back the team that doesn’t look right. Let’s look at the number on this game. In comparison the Celtics were plus this same number in Milwaukee earlier this year and the Bucks are one of the four best teams in the NBA. Phoenix was recently a -1-point favorite over a Philadelphia team that grades out slightly lower than Boston.  Boston had won 10 straight games prior to yesterday’s loss in Sacramento. So why is this number as high as it is? Because they want you to take the Celtics and the points. The Celtics have the 3rd best average differential in the NBA at +8PPG, Phoenix is 5th at +7.1PPG. Both teams are top 5 in offensive efficiency and top 12 in defensive efficiency. The Celtics are coming off a loss yesterday and playing their 3rd game in four nights so fatigue is a factor, especially considering the Suns have been off since the 14th. Boston’s road wins aren’t spectacular as they haven’t beat a winning team on the road and the combined record of those teams are 20-45 SU. Phoenix on the other hand has some quality games at home with wins over the Philadelphia and the Clippers and a 1-point loss to Utah. The bet here is on Phoenix at home minus the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON UNC Greensboro -9 over Appalachian State, Monday at 7 PM ET

UNCG is one of the favorites this year in the Southern Conference and we catch them here off a loss to Montana State as a 15 point favorite.  Greensboro took 29 more shots in the game but simply shot poorly hitting only 36% while Montana State hit 52%.  It was just one of those games where the ball was not going in the basket for UNCG.  It was also a poor defensive effort from a team that has been very good on that end of the court ranking 26th nationally in defensive efficiency 2 years ago and 74th last season.  Many of the key components are back from a team that finished 29-7 last year and this program has won 25+ game three straight seasons.  They finished 14-1 at home last year with their only loss coming at the hands of Wofford who was 30-5 a year ago.  Now off a rare home loss we expect them to have a huge bounce back and play very well in this game.  In a round robin type format, UNCG is hosting App State, Tennessee Tech, and Montana State.  They played Tennessee Tech on Friday (won by 34) and Montana State on Saturday (upset 1 point loss).  App State played both teams as well here in Greensboro (lost to Montana State & beat Tenn Tech) so they each will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Advantage goes to the home team for sure in that situation.  Unlike UNCG, App State has not been a successful program with their last winning season coming back in 2011 (16-15 record).  They hired a new coach Kerns from Presbyterian and he is trying to turn this program around.  While he may just do that, it won’t happen this season.  Greensboro plays pressure defense creates turnovers at a high rates ranking in the top 30 in defensive turnover rate each of the last 3 season.  It’s early in the season but they are at it again turning their opponents over 28% of the time ranking them 12th nationally.  App State ranks 254th so far this season in offensive turnover rate.  This isn’t a great match up for the Mountaineers and they will be facing an angry Greensboro team that is used to winning at home.  UNCG wins by double digits. 

ASA 8* PLAY ON New Orleans -5 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Sports handicapping 101 dictates looking at good teams off a loss or bad teams off an upset win. We get both in this game with the Saints off an upset home loss to Atlanta in which they played terribly and the Bucs off beating Arizona. The last time the Saints were off a loss this year they went to Seattle as a 5-point dog and won outright. They then ripped off 6 straight wins which included a 7-point win over this same Tampa Bay team. The final score in that first meeting is somewhat misleading as they Saints outgained the Bucs 457 to 252 total yards. This Saints team is quietly being overlooked in the NFC but are clearly one of the best teams in the Conference. New Orleans has already won three road games this season against better teams than Tampa, who really doesn’t have much of a home field advantage (3rd lowest attendance). Tampa has already lost at home to Carolina, the Giants and San Francisco and are off a win over 3-6-1 Arizona. The Bucs have 21-turnovers this season and 4+ in the last three games. QB Winston has 14 INT’s on the season and a habit of throwing it to the other team. The kicker here is the Bucs pass defense that is last in the NFL facing Drew Bree’s and Michael Thomas and a top ten passing offense. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +4.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Baltimore has become a bit too public since beating New England a few weeks ago and we feel this line is too high.  Houston is coming off a bye and they absolutely are good enough to win this game outright and the points at +4.5 are giving us some nice cushion if Baltimore does win.  Houston is 3-1 in road games including a win @ KC when the Chiefs had QB Mahomes at 100%.  The Texans dominated that game outgained the potent Chiefs by 163 yards.  The Houston defense allows just 84 YPG rushing (3rd best in the NFL) which matches up very well with what Baltimore likes to do on offense and that is run the ball.  In order to beat this Baltimore team, you need to slow down their running game and force QB Lamar Jackson to try and win through the air.  We think Houston can do just that.  Baltimore has been very good in the underdog role but they are just 2-4 ATS this year when favored.  Let’s not forget that before they beat New England, the Ravens lost at home to Cleveland by 15 points and picked up close wins vs both Cincinnati & Arizona.  The Texans are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this year and they’ve won all 3 of those games outright.  Even when Houston loses, it tends to be a close game.  In fact, since Deshaun Watson took over as the starting QB in 2017, Houston has lost 11 games with him under center and all were by 8 points or less.  We think this one goes to the wire and we’ll take the generous points.  

ASA 8* PLAY ON Washington -1 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

In a battle of 2 bad teams, we’ll side with the host here.  As of this writing, well over 70% of the tickets have come in on the Jets yet this line hasn’t budged off the -2 opener.  In fact, a few spots pushed the opposite direction and went to Washington -2.5 which means the heavy money is coming in on the Skins.  The percentages on this game are very similar to last Sunday’s Jets vs Giants game when everyone was on the Giants (70% plus) and the Jets won the game.  The Jets broke out offensively scoring 34 points however coming into the game they had scored only 8 TD’s in their first 7 games.  We expect them to resort back to their old offensive form here against a Washington defense that has been playing fairly solid allowing just 17 PPG over their last 4.  Offensively we realize the Skins have struggled over the last month or so, however they’ve also faced some very tough defensive teams.  They have played New England, Minnesota, Buffalo, and San Francisco, 4 of the top defenses in the NFL, all since the start of October.  We look for Washington to play much better on offense here vs a Jets defense that has given up 28.2 PPG since mid September.  Situationally, Washington is off a bye while the Jets are coming off a huge game vs cross town rival Giants.  New York is a terrible 0-9-1 ATS the last 10 times they’ve faced a team coming off a bye.  Make that 0-10-1 ATS as we like Washington to win and cover this one.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #336

As we’ve mentioned before in our write ups throughout the season, there is a reason the 6-3 Iowa Hawkeyes are favored over the 9-0 Minnesota Gophers. This line of -3 suggests that despite the records, Iowa and Minnesota are even teams on a neutral field. As we expected, the bettors have flocked to the undefeated dog here with nearly 70% of the wagers currently on Minnesota. Despite that the line has not dropped at all and we expect Iowa to get the win and cover at home here. We realize this is a rivalry game, however this is simply a terrible spot for Minnesota. After playing one of the easiest schedules in America leading up to last week, they finally had their big game. It was a home game vs PSU that the Gophs had been pointing to for at least a month. A game to prove their doubters wrong. They did pick up a 31-26 win but they were outgained by Penn State, had fewer first downs and benefitted from 3 crucial interceptions by Lion QB Clifford. Two of those interceptions led to 14 Gopher points and the third was thrown in the endzone late in the game as PSU was looking for the go ahead score. After a game that was hyped as Minnesota’s biggest home game in over a decade, we can’t see the Gophs playing that well again a week later on the road. This team has played only 2 Big Ten road games this year (@ Purdue & @ Rutgers) and the most recent was nearly a month ago. Now they face an angry Iowa team that lost 24-22 @ Wisconsin last week. The Hawkeyes are a very solid team and not far from having an outstanding record as their 3 losses (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn St) have come by a combined 14 points. The Hawkeye offense has struggled against top notch defenses, the teams listed above, but Minnesota’s stop unit is not in that category. PSU put up over 500 yards last week and we expect Iowa to have success offensively on Saturday. Minnesota had been running through poor defenses heading into last week, however PSU actually shut their rushing attack down quite well allowing only 120 yards on the ground. Minny QB Morgan saved them with a career game (more TD’s (3) than incompletions (2) and we don’t see that happening again on the road. Iowa’s rush defense will come in hungry after Wisconsin ran all over them last week. Prior to that the Iowa defense has allowed only 89 YPG on the ground and we look for them to really slow down Minnesota’s running game again this week. We also don’t expect Morgan to go off for another career type game. Let’s also remember this is a young Minnesota team consisting of mainly freshman and sophomores playing key roles so responding on the road after last week might be too much to ask. Iowa City has been a house of horrors for the Gophers as their last win here was way back in 1999. We’ll call for Iowa to win by more than a FG.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming Cowboys (+) over Utah State Aggies, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #353

Not only is Wyoming 6-3 SU and ATS on the season, the 3 SU losses the Cowboys have all came by 4 or less points. Out of 9 games this season no one has soundly beaten Wyoming and that includes the Broncos last week in a game played at Boise State. The Cowboys, with back-up QB Tyler Vander Waal, nearly pulled off the outright upset as a 2 TD+ dog at Boise last week. There has been a different "feel" in the Wyoming locker room this season and this team just gives it all they have week after week in terms of their effort no matter the situation. With that being said, we certainly look for the Cowboys to give the Aggies all they can handle this week. Utah State is off an upset win at Fresno State last week so this sets up perfectly. Prior to that win over the Bulldogs, the Aggies had lost 3 of 4 games and the 3 losses all came by big margins. Those 3 losses for Utah State featured an average margin of defeat of 29 points per game! Last season the Cowboys got the ATS cover for the 3rd straight time in this series with the Aggies but Wyoming did lose the game SU at home even though they held a 331 to 194 yardage edge! It was a fluke final score and the Cowboys now have a score to settle with Utah State in this season's rematch. Aggies QB Love is highly touted but he has more INTs than TDs this season and has struggled badly in his two career meetings with the Cowboys as well. Wyoming's pass defense has been a strength again this season and Love has 4 INT's and 0 TD's in his two career games against the Cowboys D. On the other side of the ball, Wyoming relies heavily on their ground game and should enjoy some success on the ground here. The Aggies front seven on defense suffered a major blow with the loss of linebacker David Woodward. Already without a senior defensive lineman (Fua Leilua) that was expected to be a key contributor this season, the loss of Woodward is huge. He had 134 tackles last season and already had 93 this season. The Cowboys take advantage and QB Vander Waal certainly had a respectable game against a tough 8-1 Boise State team last week. All it takes is a little success with the aerial attack (like he had last week) to open things up even more for the ground game! On that note, Utah State has allowed 275 rushing yards per game the past 3 weeks. Per our computer math model, the Aggies defense gets run on big in this game too and once again Love has another bad game against a Cowboys pass defense that has given him fits each of the past two years. More of the same here and we'll bet this game with the points but we don't expect to need them! Grab the points with Wyoming as a road dog in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Texas Longhorns (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #377

We were on Texas last week and felt we should have covered that game but that’s the way things go sometimes in this gambling biz. KSU jumped out to a 14-0 lead on the Horns after their first 2 offensive possessions. The Cats had 138 yards and 14 points on their first 2 possessions and after that the Texas defense really played well allowing just 3 points (the only other TD for KSU was 98 yard kickoff return) and just 166 yards the remainder of the game. The Longhorn offense averaged 7.3 YPP on nearly 500 total yards vs a very solid KSU defense. The Horns outgained the Cats by 130 yards in the game. Again, the 98 yard kickoff return after Texas went up 10 in the 4th quarter was the killer. We felt the Texas defense, which hadn’t been playing well heading into last week, would be much better as a number of key players on that side of the ball returned to action after their bye the previous week. They did play very well and we expect that to continue. This team is a bit undervalued right now in our opinion. As for ISU, we’re not sure how they get up off the floor so to speak. They went to Oklahoma last week and rallied late from 21 points down in the 3rd quarter only to lose 42-41 when they failed on a 2-point conversion going for the win in the final seconds. That’s going to be very tough to rebound from. The physical and emotional energy used in that comeback only to fall short should have an affect here. The Cyclones have simply found a way to lose close games this year (4 losses each by 7 points or less) and we see this one playing out in a similar fashion. Their home field hasn’t been great this year as they’ve already lost outright here vs Iowa and Oklahoma State and barely beat Northern Iowa in OT. The Horns have owned this series as of late winning each of the last 3 seasons and ISU has NEVER been favored over Texas and now they are laying a full TD. We like Texas to keep this game close and we’ll grab the points.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Nebraska -6.5 over South Dakota State, Friday at 8 PM ET

The Huskers come into this game with an 0-2 record giving us some line value here.  Their most recent game was a home loss to a very solid Southern Utah team in OT.  The Huskers were laying 7.5 and 8 in that game vs an SUU team that is rated 10 to 15 spots higher than this South Dakota State team yet Nebraska is laying just 6.5 here.  Nebraska is working with a new head coach Fred Hoiberg who has big success at Iowa State.  He is integrating a number of new but talented players into the lineup.  They looked very poor in their season opener, but much better against Southern Utah although Nebraska did blow an 11 point halftime lead in that game.  SUU went to BYU a few days after their game @ Nebraska an nearly beat a very solid Cougar team so they are solid.  Now the Huskers have had off since November 9th and we expect a solid effort here in a very important game for them.  They do not want to drop to 0-3 with some big road games coming up vs Washington State (neutral site), @ Georgia Tech, @ Creighton, and @ Indiana.  South Dakota State is also replacing their head coach TJ Otzelberger who took the head job at UNLV.  New head coach Eric Henderson has very few experienced players to work with this year.  While Nebraska has had nearly a week off to regroup, South Dakota State was in California facing Cal State Bakersfield in Nov 9 (win in OT) and @ USC on Nov 12 (18 point loss).  Now just a few days later they are in Nebraska taking on a desperate Husker squad.  We’ll lay this small number and look for Nebraska to pick up a big win here.  

ASA PLAY ON 9* North Carolina Tar Heels (+) over Pittsburgh Panthers, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #313

These teams have met six times as ACC foes and the Tar Heels have won all six of the games both straight-up and against the spread!  Both teams are off a bye week and North Carolina can't wait to get back on the field after a tough 7-point loss to a quality Virginia team prior to their bye - Tar Heels outgained the Cavs by over 100 yards!  The Panthers got a win before their bye week but it came against a Georgia Tech team having a rough season as this is a transition year for the 2-7 Yellow Jackets.  Pittsburgh is averaging just 21 points per game this season which ranks them around the #110 spot in the nation.  Though the Panthers defense is their strong suit, the Tar Heels defense had allowed 25 points or less in 6 of 8 games before having a tough time with the Cavaliers in their most recent game.  The key to the match-up edge for UNC here is that they are averaging 446 yards per game on offense and are clearly the stronger team on that side of the ball.  That yardage average would be even higher if the Heels did not have to face Clemson.  Pittsburgh does not face Clemson this season and, overall, the Tar Heels have played the tougher schedule this season which also is not properly factored into this line (Pitt opened at -4) in our opinion.  The Heels offense, since the loss to Clemson, has averaged 512 yards per game in 4 games.  The Panthers have averaged just 350 yards per game on offense in their 4 games since October 1st.  Per our computer math model, Pittsburgh won't be able to score enough to match the Tar Heels in this one as UNC covers for a 7th straight time in their ACC meetings.  Grab the points with North Carolina as a road dog in evening action Thursday.

ASA play on: Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 over Miami Heat, 6PM ET - *Note early tip time* We love the Cavs here who are a team lumped together with some of the worst teams in the league, but are better than expected. Let’s talk line value first. The Cavs are catching a similar number at home as they were against Boston and Dallas recently who are both better than this Miami team as of this writing. Injuries: The Heat have suspended Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow is out and they have health concerns with Dragic, Johnson, and Herro who are all questionable tonight. The Cavaliers have played the 8th toughest schedule when it comes to efficiency ratings and yet they have the 17th average point differential of minus -0.9PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road this season with a differential of minus -2PPG. Cleveland is 2-2 SU at home and their differential is minus -2.2PPG so in both those scenarios (Miami away, Cavs home) the Cavs are within the spread tonight. Let’s not forget the Cav vets are playing hard to showcase their talents for other teams in the league before trade deadline when this team gets blown up. Take the home dog here and the points!

ASA play on: LA Clippers +2.5 over Houston Rockets, 7:30PM ET – Obviously the biggest game on the card tonight is this one and we are betting the Clippers. These two teams are both 7-3 SU on the season and have some similarities when it comes to general statistics but the biggest advantage the Clippers have is defense. Let’s compare both teams: The Clippers are 8th in offensive efficiency ratings, the Rockets are 3rd. Los Angeles is 11th in defensive efficiency, Houston is 20th. To summarize the Rockets, have a slight edge offensively and the Clippers hold the advantage defensively. But the Clippers numbers have come against the 3rd toughest schedule to date while the Rockets stats have come against the SECOND EASIEST! Houston has one quality win on their resume which was at home against the Bucks.  The Clippers on the other hand have beaten Toronto, Portland, San Antonio, Utah and the Lakers. After facing the much tougher schedule the Clippers average point differential is +5PPG while the Rockets are +1.9PPG against a weak one. L.A. has covered 5 straight, the Rockets are 0-4 AGTS their last four against a team with a winning record. The better defensive team wins outright. Play on: LA CLIPPERS

ASA PLAY ON Western Michigan Broncos (-) over Ohio University Bobcats, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET: Game #303

When Ohio University blasted the Broncos at Western Michigan last season that was their first victory over them since 2006.  Suffice to say the Broncos haven't forgotten the 59-14 shellacking that they were handed by the Bobcats last season.  That was a "phony final" too because it was driven by turnovers.  Ohio U scored 45 first-half points in that game on only 260 yards of offense so that tells you the Bobcats did not dominate the game in the way you would think given the scoreboard result.  Coming into this game the Broncos have all the momentum.  Each team is alive in their respective divisions within the MAC but it is Western Michigan with the momentum.  The Broncos are off back to back wins and have won 3 of their last 4 games.  The Bobcats lost Wednesday and that was their 2nd loss in their past 4 games.  Ohio U was at home against Miami-Ohio Wednesday and the SU loss was also an ATS loss which dropped the Bobcats to 0-5 ATS in home games this season!  Ohio U has allowed 36.5 points per game in its past 4 home games.  The Broncos are averaging 36 points per game on the season and, per our computer math model, Ohio U won't be able to keep up with the high-scoring Broncos in this one.  Bet Western Michigan in what should be a road rout in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA play on: Boston Celtics -3 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:30PM ET – The Celtics will be without Gordon Hayward tonight and yet the line has not fluctuated. That’s because the Celtics have the luxury of moving Marcus Smart into the lineup so don’t expect a drop off for Boston. The C’s were 28-13 SU at home last year with an average differential of +6.8PPG. They are 3-0 SU this season with quality wins over the Bucks and Raptors. Dallas on the other hand is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS on the road this season but 3 of those wins have come against Memphis, New Orleans and Cleveland who have a combined 8-19 record. Going back to 2016 the Celtics have a 105-46 SU home (70%) record and they’ve won those games by an average of +4.8PPG.  We will lay the points here with Boston at home.

ASA NHL PLAY 9* ON Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa Senators, Monday at 7:05 PM ET

The Senators jumped out to a 3-0 lead on Carolina in the 1st period Saturday and cruised to a 4-1 win. That game was in Ottawa however and now the Hurricanes are the host against Sens team that has won just 1 of 7 road games this season. The Canes have won 6 of their 9 home games this season and the value here is with the puck line. Carolina is a -250 favorite on the money line but available right around even money on the puck line. Can we expect a win by two or more goals here? Yes! Carolina's last 6 wins have featured 5 by a multiple goal margin and, in fact, they have won these games by an average margin of 3 goals per game. Overall, only 3 of the Hurricanes last 14 games have been one-goal games. The Senators have 10 losses this season and 8 of them have come by a margin of at least two goals. Carolina has been challenged by head coach Rod Brind'Amour and we expect a very focused Hurricanes team on the ice tonight as they are much better than they've shown in recent games during their current (and rare) 4-game losing streak. The Senators have been held to 2 or less goals in 5 of their 7 road games this season. The Hurricanes have scored an average of 4 goals per game in their 6 home wins this season. Look for at least a margin of 2 goals in this one! Laying the 1.5 goals (and laying a very fair price, currently in -105 range) with Carolina is the value play here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +3.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

You couldn’t ask for a better situation for a wager on the Vikings as they are off a disappointing loss, while the public Cowboys are off a big TV win on Monday night. That makes this a short week for a Cowboys team that is vastly over-rated by playing the 31st easiest schedule in the NFL. The Cowboys have played five games against teams with a combined 7-36 SU record and are the five worst teams in the NFL. Dallas has an average margin of victory this year of +10.6PPG but if you eliminate the previously teams that differential shrinks to just +1.6PPG. They’ve already lost to a pair of comparable teams to the Vikings in New Orleans (without Brees) and home against the Packers. Despite the disparity in scheduling the Cowboys yards per play differential (1.6YPPL) is barely better than the Vikings (1.0YPPL) and a tougher schedule. The Vikings have an average differential of +8.4PPG and have played a much better schedule than Dallas. Minnesota has a 2-3 SU road record this year, but the losses have come against Green Bay, at Chicago when the Bears were decent and then last week in Kansas City. Vikings head coach Zimmer is 17-3-1 ATS when coming off a loss and playing a non-division opponent and a remarkable 40-16-3 ATS when facing a non-NFC North team. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Cleveland -2.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’re definitely buying low on Cleveland here.  Nobody wants to bet the Browns right now after losing @ Denver last week dropping them to 2-6 yet they are favored over the 6-2 Bills here.  There is a reason they are favored in this game and we expect a bounce back game for Cleveland.  We all know they are a very talented team and now they are backed into a corner with everyone seemingly against them.  That’s many times when NFL teams step up and play well.  We also don’t mind fading a Buffalo team that we feel is completely overvalued at this point in the season.  Their 6 wins have come against teams that have a combined record of 9-41 and none have a .500 record.  They have beaten Miami, NY Jets, NY Giants, Washington, Cincinnati, and Tennessee.  Last week they beat a terrible Washington team 24-9 but the Bills had just 268 yards of total offense in that game.  They have also been at home for 5 of their last 6 games so their schedule thus far has been very much in favor of them.  The Buffalo offense is fairly pedestrian ranking 22nd scoring only 19.8 PPG despite playing 4 of the bottom 12 defenses in the NFL this year.  Their defense is overrated in our opinion for the same reason as the Bills have faced 6 of the bottom 9 NFL teams ranked in total offense.  Their run defense has been exposed a bit over the last 3 weeks allowing 127 yards rushing to the Skins, 218 to the Eagles, and 109 to the Dolphins.  Cleveland is one of the better running teams in the NFL (2nd in YPC) and not only will the Browns run Nick Chubb at the Buffalo defense but Kareem Hunt is now eligible as well.  We expect the Browns with their backs against the wall hearing from everyone all week how bad they are, to rise up and play very well on Sunday.  We spoke earlier about why would a 2-6 Cleveland team be favored over a 6-2 Buffalo team?  Here is a very interesting and STRONG stat on that situation.  Over the last 25 seasons, this is just the 7th time in week 6 or later a team winning 25% or less of their games (Cleveland) is favored over a team winning 75% or more of their games (Buffalo).  The favorite (supposed bad team) that has won 25% or less is 6-0 ATS in those games as a favorite!  Again there is a reason Cleveland is favored and we’ll take the Browns on Sunday.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Atlanta +14.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We get Atlanta has won only 1 game this year but they are MUCH better than their record.  They have actually outgained their opponents this year averaging 385 YPG on offense while allowing 379 defensively.  Those are not the numbers of a 1-7 team, more like a .500 team.  Matt Ryan is back under center and we definitely think the Falcons will do enough on offense to keep this game within 2 TD’s.  Before his injury Ryan topped 300 yards passing in every game and they scored at least 24 points in 4 of those 6 games.  Getting to 20 here should be enough to get the cover and fully anticipate the Birds doing just that.  The Saints have won and covered 6 straight and now they are at the point where they are overvalued in our opinion.  Let’s not forget this is a big time NFC South rivalry and this is the HIGHEST spread ever in this game!  Only 2 of the last 18 meetings in this rivalry have been decided by more than 2 TD’s and over the last 8 meetings the average margin of victory was 8 points.  Atlanta has also been very successful on the road in this series with a 26-12 ATS record since 1980.  Just to give you an idea of the value we are getting here, this year Atlanta was +3 @ Minnesota, +1 @ Indianapolis, and +4 @ Houston.  We look for Atlanta to play their best game of the year off last week’s bye and keep this one much closer than most think.    

NOTE - This pick was posted before Stafford was declared out.  We'd still consider Detroit at +7 over higher.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Detroit +3 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Bears offense is just putrid.  There is on arguing that.  They rank 29th in the NFL in total offense and 29th in yards per play (YPP) offense.  Last week vs the Eagles they had a grand total of NINE yards at halftime.  They lost the game 22-14 but it really should have been much worse as Philly outgained the Bears by over 200 yards.  The defense absolutely has to carry this team and we see a problem looming.  The Chicago defense looks like they are running out of gas.  Defenses that get tired as the season progresses tend to give up rushing yardage.  Over the last 3 games, the Chicago defense has allowed 146, 162, and 151 yards on the ground.  Now the Lions aren’t a great running team but the fact that Chicago’s defense is slipping a bit is telling.  If that continues to happen, this team is in big trouble.  We had Oakland over this Detroit team last week and picked up a win with the Raiders.  However, we were impressed with the Detroit offense that had nearly 500 yards of offense.  Detroit QB Stafford gives us a huge edge at that position over Chicago’s Trubisky who has lost all of his confidence.  Stafford has quietly had a very good season with 2,500 yards on 19 TD’s.  His rating puts him at 5th in the NFL among starting QB’s while Trubisky’s rating has him at 29th.  The Lions have scored at least 24 points in 6 of their 8 games.  With Chicago’s defense trending downward allowing 24 points or more in 3 of their last 4, we think Detroit can get into the 20’s here.  If so, we just don’t see how the Bears offense, who has scored 10 offensive TD’s in 7 games with Trubisky under center, can keep up and win, much less cover.  Even in their losses, Detroit has been very competitive with a chance to win each (with the exception of Minnesota).  The led Green Bay on the road entering the 4th quarter and lost 23-22 on a last second FG.  They led KC (when Mahomes was healthy) late in the 4th and Mahomes led the Chiefs to a game winning TD (34-30 win) with 20 seconds remaining.  Last week @ Oakland, the Lions ended the game at the Raider 1-yard line with a chance to tie.  You see the point.  Those are all solid teams and Detroit could have won all of them.  We think they break through here and beat a bad Chicago team so we’ll take the points.

ASA FIRST HALF LINE PLAY ON 9* Clemson Tigers (FIRST HALF LINE) over NC State Wolfpack, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #117

If you do not have access to the First Half Line than play this one for the full game. The fact is that this one has the makings of an absolute blowout but rather than laying 32 points for the game, we’re confident Clemson will be ahead at halftime by more than 19 points so we’ll take the first half line here. The danger of laying 32 for the game would be the Tigers getting a big lead and letting up late allowing NC State the possibility of a back door cover. We won’t have that situation to worry about in the first half. Since their one scare this year @ North Carolina (a 21-20 Clemson win) the Tigers offense has scored 45, 45, 59, and 59 points. They have outgained their last 4 opponents by 1,530 yards or +382 yards per game. Looking at their season, Clemson often gets off to big half time leads as not one opponent this year has scored more than 7 points in the first half with the exception of UNC. The Tigers have outscored their opponents 239 to 36 in the first half and that includes a 14-14 halftime score @ UNC. Many of those games vs teams that are better than this NC State squad. The Wolfpack are 4-4 but their wins have come against Western Carolina, East Carolina, Ball State and Syracuse. Their four losses have all come in conference play and all were easy wins for their opponents. They lost by 34 points to Wake, 21 points to BC, 18 points to Florida State, and 17 points to West Virginia. Clemson is obviously far superior to any of those teams and they all handled NC State quite easily. They are really struggling offensively with 16 or fewer points in 3 of their last 4 games. Last week they scored just 10 points @ Wake (a 44-10 loss) who was allowing 27 PPG to their FBS opponents entering last week’s game. Wake’s defense ranks 69th nationally in total defense and was actually the BEST defense NC State has faced this season. Now they face the Tigers who rank 4th nationally in total defense and 3rd in defensive efficiency (yards per play). There is a chance that State doesn’t score in this game but if they do we think it will be late in the game when its already out of reach. Also, let’s not discount that this Clemson team, who won the National Championship last year, feels they are being disrespected after ranking #5 and not currently in the BCS Final four in the initial rankings that came out earlier this week. They’re primed to blast someone and we think they’ll come out with guns a blazing as they say in the first half here.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Missouri Tigers (+) over Georgia Bulldogs, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #181

Tigers QB Kelly Bryant is on the injury report this week but he has been upgraded to probable and, as of Thursday afternoon, is on track and "ready to go" for Saturday. He has been taking the majority of the 1st team repetitions in practice. The Tigers defense could be the real story in this match-up. Missouri is catching the Bulldogs off a big win over Florida last week in Jacksonville. Georgia is favored by nearly 17 points in this match-up with the Tigers. That is big overlay in this game considering that this is a Missouri defense that, after a tough opening week performance that led to a loss at Wyoming, has helped lead the way to a 5-2 run for the Tigers as they have allowed just 15.4 points per game in those 7 games. Missouri's offense did struggle in their past two weeks but, coming off their bye week, they'll be ready to bounce back here and Bryant had to exit their previous game (at Kentucky). Georgia is not only off the big win over Gators, they have big games on deck with Auburn and Texas A & M too. The Tigers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Bulldogs. Per our computer math model, Missouri will bounce back from the 29-7 loss at Kentucky that preceded their bye week. They don't get the SU win here but they get the all-important cover. Georgia has failed to cover 8 straight games when they are at home facing a team with a winning record that is off a loss by a margin of more than 14 points. Grab the big points with Missouri as a road dog in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Wisconsin Badgers(-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #194

We love how this game sets up for the Badgers. They began the season with a perfect 6-0 record and rolled over their opponents by a combined score of 255 to 29 or an average score of 42 to 5. Two of those wins came against Michigan (35-14) and Michigan State (38-0). Their defense pitched 4 shutouts in those first 6 games. In game 7 they traveled to Illinois and were upset 24-23. It was a look ahead game for UW with Ohio State on deck and they simply didn’t play well. With that said, A LOT had to go wrong in the final quarter for them to lose that game and it did. The Badgers outgained the Illini significantly and held a 23-14 lead with 7:30 remaining AND had the ball inside the Illini 30 yard line. Any type of score there and the game is over. Wisconsin fumbled and Illinois scored 4 plays later to make it 23-21. Then another Badger turnover late led to the Illinois game winning FG. Two weeks ago before the bye UW lost big @ Ohio State which doesn’t affect our handicap here at all. OSU is simply that good. Wisconsin should really be 7-1 which is right where we thought they’d be as of a few weeks ago. Getting them at home, off 2 losses, laying less than 10 we feel is a bargain. Iowa is solid but lost both of their step up games in the Big Ten to Michigan and Penn State. The Hawkeye offense has struggled big time vs good defenses this year. They have played 2 games this year vs defenses ranked in the top 30 in total defense (Michigan & Penn State) and scored a grand total of ONE touchdown in those two games combined! Now they face a Wisconsin defense that ranks 1st in the nation in total defense, 2nd in defensive efficiency (yards per play), and 4th in scoring defense. Not only that, it’s a defense that was embarrassed in their most recent game allowing 38 points to Ohio State and had a bye week to stew over that performance. Iowa won’t score much in this game. We realize Iowa’s defense is very solid as well but Wisconsin’s offense has proven they can score against similar defenses. They put up 35 at home on Michigan (7th nationally in total defense) and 38 on Michigan State (20th in total defense). Iowa will be without their top WR (Smith) and possibly their leading tackler (Welch) on Saturday. Wisconsin has owned this series winning 6 of the last 7 and they beat Iowa 28-17 last year in Iowa City and it was a down year for the Badgers in 2018 (8-5 record). If that team can win by double digits @ Iowa last year, we have no doubt this team can cruise in this game on Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Longhorns (+) over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #184

The sharp money is on Texas in this game. As of Thursday afternoon, 67% of the tickets are being written on Kansas State in this game since the line opened up at -5 and yet the Longhorns are now up to a -7. That tells you that the bigger wagers are coming in on Texas in this one. The set up here is ideal as the Wildcats are off back to back huge wins. In the past three weeks Kansas State is off 3 straight big wins. They won at home against TCU, then upset Oklahoma when they hosted the Sooners and then followed that up with a huge win against the rival Jayhawks at Kansas. Sure one could argue that Kansas State has plenty of momentum here but what we see with this is an over-rated Wildcats team due for a letdown game. That is why they are ranked 20th in the nation and yet odds makers are favoring the un-ranked Horns in this spot! The fact is that upset wins, of course, do happen in College Football and the Wildcats put it all together when they upset the Sooners two weeks ago. However, Kansas State's other 5 wins this season have included a win over an FCS school (Nichols State) and 4 other FBS teams of which NONE have a winning record. The Longhorns are going to be ready here. They are coming off a bye week and this followed a game in which QB Sam Ehlinger threw 4 interceptions in an ugly loss against TCU. Poor games on offense have certainly been the exception rather than the norm this season for Ehlinger and the Horns. Texas has been particularly strong in Austin as they have averaged 42.3 points in their 4 games at Memorial Stadium this year. Where the Longhorns have had issues this season is on the other side of the ball but therein lies the key to this match-up. Texas is coming off a bye week and finally near 100% health on the defensive side of the ball. The key is their secondary is getting back to full strength this week. Both safeties Caden Sterns and BJ Foster are coming back this week. Also, DeMarvion Overshown is expected to play for the first time this season as the defensive back got injured right before the season in fall camp and has been upgraded to probable for this game. Texas was counting on Overshown as a key member of the secondary as well and you can see why we're expected a much improved performance from the Longhorns defense in this one. They are finally healthy and they catch the Wildcats at the right time and in the right place to deliver a blowout win and that is precisely what our computer math model is forecasting here. The home team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series. Make that 8-0 ATS when this one goes into the books! Lay the points with Texas and look for a home blowout in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA Play on: Utah Jazz +3 over Milwaukee Bucks, Friday 9PM ET – This is simply a bad number set by the oddsmakers and we’ll gladly take the value with the home team Jazz. Consider this: Utah was just favored by -2.5 points at home over a Philly team that is VERY comparable to Milwaukee and a -7.5 point favorite against the Clippers at home (minus Kawhi). The Jazz won both of those games and are unbeaten at home this season. Last year the Jazz were 29-12 SU at home with the 6th best home point differential at +7.9PPG. Going back further the Jazz are 30-16 their last 46 regular season home games with an average winning margin of +4.8PPG (11th best in the NBA). Milwaukee is clearly one of the best teams in the NBA and have some impressive road numbers including a 27-14 SU record away from home in the regular season last year. The Bucks road differential a season ago was +5.6PPG which was 2nd best in the league but that’s barely better than the spread here. The home team has won and covered 4 in a row in this series and with the vast majority of public money and tickets bet on the Bucks, we’ll go opposite and take the home team Jazz.

ASA NHL PLAY 9* ON Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Detroit Red Wings, Friday at 7:35 PM ET

The Bruins are off a loss.  The Red Wings are off a loss.  For Boston, this is VERY unusual.  For Detroit, this is becoming ALL too familiar.  In fact the Red Wings have lost 12 of its past 13 games.  Overall Detroit has lost 13 games this season and 11 of the 13 defeats have come by a margin of 2 goals or more.  Of course Boston is a huge favorite (-250 range) on the money line here because of stats like this.  But the value here is found in laying the 1.5 goals.  In doing so you get the hungry Bruins without laying any juice or a very small price (-105) and they just need to win the game by 2 goals or more.  Not only is that likely because of all the Red Wings struggles, lets take a look at what Boston has been doing this season.  They had won 6 straight games prior to their controversial one goal loss at Montreal Wednesday.  Keep in mind that was a very tough spot for the Bruins too because they were off a fierce battle with the Penguins which resulted in a two goal win the night before.  Speaking of wins by a margin of 2 or more goals, Boston has 11 wins this season and the first 3 came by a single goal but since then ALL EIGHT of their wins have come by 2 or more goals.  The Bruins are fired up here and losing 3 of 4 to Detroit last season also insures proper focus here.  That means a road rout will be the ultimate result here.  Laying the 1.5 goals (and laying a very fair price, currently in -105 range) with Boston is the value play here.

ASA 10* Play On: #552 Denver Nuggets -4.5 over Miami Heat, 9PM ET – We are getting value here with the home team Nuggets who are off to a slow start by the standards set for them this season, while the Heat are over-valued by a hot start. Miami does have a pair of quality wins on their resume against Houston and Milwaukee, but their other three wins have come against Atlanta and Memphis. With a 5-1 SU record and a public team, the Heat will have the Nuggets full attention tonight. Denver is 71-21 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season with an average margin of victory of +7.9PPG. Last season Denver had the second most efficient offense in the NBA at home last year at 1.172PPG and the 5th best defensive efficiency allowing 1.064PPP. Denver was 34-7 at home last year and won by an average of 10.6PPG. The Heat are clearly over-valued tonight considering they were a 7-point dog at a lesser Minnesota and +11.5 points in Milwaukee. This Nuggets team was one of the favorites to win it all this season. Denver lost their last home contest and will send a message tonight. Lay the points.

ASA 10* play on: LA Clippers -4 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – The Clippers are the best team in the NBA right now and Paul George hasn’t even seen the floor yet. Here’s what we’ve seen in this small sample size of the NBA. The Clippers have played the 4th toughest schedule to date based on opponents offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, yet they have the 11th best point differential at +4.7PPG. They are unbeaten at home with a point differential of +10.4PPG. Utah is going to be one of the better NBA teams this season, but they’ve played the second easiest schedule and current numbers are inflated. Utah faced the Lakers in Los Angeles earlier this season and were plus +3.5 points so the adjustment by the oddsmakers isn’t enough for the better of the two L.A. teams. Just how good is Kawhi Leonard you ask? He currently leads the Clippers in scoring, rebounding and assists. The Clippers just lost in Utah the other night but Kawhi was rested due to load management. He’ll play here and lead the Clippers to a double-digit home win.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

Oakland is just happy to be home where they have not played since September 15th!  They’ve played 5 consecutive games away from home including a game in London a few weeks back.  They also had a bye thrown in so 6 full weeks and you can bet the loyal Black & Silver followers will be amped up for this game.  The Raiders were 2-3 on their road trip and were quite impressive based on their competition.  They beat Indy & Chicago during that stretch with losses @ GB, @ Minnesota, and @ Houston.  They actually outgained GB on the road but the game turned on a few key turnovers including one late in the 1st half that turned into a 14 points swing in favor of the Packers.  Last week @ Houston the Raiders never trailed until 6:00 minutes remaining in the game in a 27-24 loss and they outgained the Texans drastically averaging 7.1 YPP to just 5.2 for Houston.  On that 5 game road swing the Raiders played the 2 best teams in the NFC North and the 2 best teams in the AFC South and presented themselves very well.  On top of that, they played KC when Mahomes was a full strength so 5 of their 7 games this season have come against some of the top teams in the NFL.  This team is better than their 3-4 record.  Detroit comes in with a 3-3-1 record on the season and they are getting outgained by an average of 41 YPG (379 on offense / 420 on defense).  Their defense has been very poor ranking 31st in the NFL in total defense ahead of only Cincinnati.  The Lions have allowed at least 430 yards in 3 of their last 4 games.  They also allow 130 YPG on the ground which is a bad match up here vs an Oakland running game that puts up 131 YPG.  That should open things up for QB Derek Carr and we look for the Raider offense to have a big game vs a Detroit defense that has allowed at least 23 points in all but one game this season.  Oakland wins and covers at home.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Tampa Bay +5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

Seattle is 6-2 on the season but drastically overvalued in our opinion.  They are getting outgained on the season -0.2 YPP and 5 of their 6 wins have come against teams that are currently below .500.  The Seahawks are just 2-2 at home and both wins have come by just 1 point (over Bengals and Rams).  They have been drastically outgained by 2 BAD teams this year.  Last week a 1-7 Atlanta team outgained Seattle by 188 yards last week (7.2 YPP for Atlanta / 5.9 for Seattle) and earlier this year the 0-8 Bengals outgained Seattle by 197 yards (6.1 YPP for Bengals / 4.7 YPP for Seattle).  Despite their east schedule, the Seahawks have only one win by more than 7 points (@ Arizona).  Tampa is the opposite of Seattle in that they are better than their 2-5 record.  Last week’s game @ Tennessee was a good summary of how the Bucs season has gone this year.  They lost 27-23 but outgained Tennessee by over 100 yards.  Tampa had a scoring play nullified by the officials late in the game which would have given Tampa the win.  The NFL admitted it was a mistake and apologized to TB.  The Bucs have had lots of bad luck this season for a pretty solid team.  They’ve shown they can get it done on the road already beating Carolina and the LA Rams away from home.  Despite their 2 wins thus far, the Bucs have outgained their opponents by +0.2 YPP.  Seattle has a huge division game on deck with San Francisco and we can see them peaking ahead here.  We like Tampa to take this to the wire with a solid shot to win outright.  Take the points. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (+) over North Carolina Tar Heels, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #337

Perfect set up to back a solid underdog in this one. While Virginia fell just short at Louisville last week, the Tar Heels hung on for a tight win over Duke last week in Chapel Hill. The Cavaliers lost the turnover battle 2-0 against the Cardinals and that factored into their loss. Speaking of turnovers, the Blue Devils threw an INT from the NC 2-yard line with under half a minute to go in the 3 point Heels win. After winning a nail-biter like that in dramatic fashion, the Tar Heels could be a little spent this week. That is why they are such a small favorite here despite being at home and facing a Cavaliers team that has lost 3 straight road games. This line looks like an open invitation to take the home team minus the short number and, of course, you know what that generally leads to - a road dog upset! The Heels were fortunate to escape with the win over Duke last week and they won't be so fortunate here. North Carolina is just 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they have been a favorite. Also, the Cavaliers are looking to make it 3 in a row (both SU and ATS) in meetings with UNC as they have had their number in recent meetings. Virginia has been solid defending the pass this season as they are allowing only 58% completions and 166 passing yards per game. Comparing that to North Carolina (64% completions and 242 passing yards allowed per game) and it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for the Cavs to hold a significant edge over the Heels in the passing game in this one. The Tar Heels were fortunate to hang on against Duke and that tight win was preceded by North Carolina losing 3 of their past 4 games including losing to a Sun Belt Conference team and losing to a Virginia Tech team that is really down this season. 3 of UNC's 4 wins this season have come by a combined total of just 10 points and, again, the Tar Heels already have 4 losses this season too. The Cavaliers had allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their first 7 games this season. Coming off a disappointing loss where they gave up 28 points, Virginia's defense is poised for a strong bounce back effort here. The Cavs catch the Tar Heels in a tough spot here as they have played back to back brutally tough games. The war with Duke was preceded by a 6-OT loss at Virginia Tech. Look for North Carolina to run out of gas as this game goes on and the Cavaliers pull away down the stretch. Grab the points with Virginia as a road dog in early evening action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Pittsburgh Panthers (-) over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #317

Our power ratings have Pitt favored by 10 here so we feel we’re getting value with the Panthers.  The reason the line sits at -7.5 we feel is both teams recent results vs Miami FL.  It was the most recent game for each of these 2 teams.  Georgia Tech went to Miami as a +18 point favorite and won the game 28-21 in OT.  Tech had fewer first downs, was outgained in the game and their first score was a defensive TD.  They also caught Miami off a huge win vs Virginia who is one of the favorites to win the ACC Coastal division.  A lot had to go right for Tech to win that game and it did.  Follow that up the next week with Miami traveling to Pittsburgh.  The Canes bounced back from their loss to Ga Tech with a 16-12 win as a 4.5 point underdog.  Despite the loss, Pitt outgained the Canes 322 to 208 and on the ground they held Miami to just 54 yards on 27 carries (Pitt had 176 yards rushing).  So in essence, the Panthers dominated the game and lost at home (3 turnovers didn’t help).  Those two results set this one up nicely.  Pitt sits at 2-2 in the ACC Coastal, one win behind first place Virginia & North Carolina.  This is a must win for them.  Their defense has been superb allowing just 4.2 YPP which ranks them 7th in the nation.  They have been a brick wall vs opposing teams rushing attacks allowing just 85 YPG on 2.6 YPC (ranked 6th nationally in both categories).  They match up very well vs a Georgia Tech offense that loves to run the ball and simply isn’t a very good passing team completing an average of just 11 per game.  Georgia Tech’s offense ranks 118th nationally and will have trouble scoring much in this game.  Remember, the Jackets have switched from their option based offense after head coach Paul Johnson retired last year.  New head coach Geoff Collins has implemented a new system and doesn’t really have the players to fit it yet.  They can’t throw (120th in passing offense) because he has option QB’s on the roster which were recruited by Johnson.  If they can’t run, which will be a struggle here, they are in trouble.  Pitt’s offense is far from dynamic but we feel they won’t have to score much to get this cover.  If they get to their 21 PPG average that may be enough to cover this number.  However, facing a Ga Tech defense that has allowed more points than any other team in the ACC Coastal, we like the Panthers to top 21 points which should be enough here.  Lay it with Pitt. 

ASA PLAY ON 9* Florida State Seminoles (-) over Miami Hurricanes, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #388

Both of these teams come in with a 4-4 record but FSU is the better team right now.  With this line sitting at FSU -3 at home, it’s actually saying Miami is the better team and would be -1 on a neutral field.  We completely disagree with that.  Since blowing a 31-13 lead in their home opener vs Boise (36-31 FSU loss) the Seminoles have won 4 straight at home.  In their ACC home games they have won by margins of 11 (vs Louisville), 18 (vs NC State), and 18 (vs Syracuse).  Miami will be on the road for the 2nd consecutive Saturday after topping Pitt last week as a 4.5 point dog.  The Canes were a bit lucky to pick up that win as they were outplayed quite drastically on the stat sheet.  Miami had just 12 first downs and only 208 total yards of offense as they were outgained by 114 yards.  A week earlier the Hurricanes lost at home to Georgia Tech as an 18 point favorite.  Two weeks prior to that they lost at home to Va Tech as a 14 point favorite.  The fact that they have already lost 4 games outright this season as a favorite tells us they are inconsistent and definitely overvalued.  FSU has had just one poor performance over their last 5 games and that was vs Clemson which was to be expected.  Their only other loss during that stretch was 22-20 @ Wake in a game the probably should have won outgaining the Demon Deacons and holding the lead late in the 4th quarter.   We get this is a rivalry so both teams will be more than ready, however the Noles have had this one circled for a full year or really two years.  In 2017 FSU held a 20-17 lead late until Miami scored a TD with 6 seconds remaining for the win.  Last year in Miami the Noles held a 27-7 lead and lost 28-27.  We expect a very good performance from Florida State here and look for a win by at least a TD. 

ASA PLAY 9* ON Appalachian State Mountaineers (-) over Georgia Southern Eagles, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #304

Last season when Appalachian State faced the Eagles the game was at Georgia Southern.  The Mountaineers were actually ranked then too but lost their QB in the 1st quarter plus lost 5 turnovers in the game!  As a result, it comes as no surprise that App State lost that game by a 20 point margin  That being said, this is not just a typical revenge situation, this is a special one and we fully expect the Mountaineers to make the most of it.  Appalachian State is the much stronger team on both sides of the ball and their 4 victories on their home field this season have come by an average margin of 28.5 points!  While it is true that Georgia Southern comes into this game off 3 straight SU victories, it is also true that the wins came against  a pair of conference foes that are a combined 0-7 in SBC action and a win over a New Mexico State team that is 0-8 on the season.  The point is that the Eagles are really taking a big step up in level of competition here and Appalachian State gets revenge in a big way.  Per our computer math model, the Mountaineers not only improve to 8-0 SU, they also improve to 6-2 ATS on the year.  Lay the big points with Appalachian State in what should be a home blowout in evening action Thursday.

ASA 8* PLAY ON NY Giants +7 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Both teams off 3 straight losses coming into this game.  Detroit has had back to back huge division games vs Green Bay and Minnesota and it could be tough for them to get back up to their top level here after those 2 losses.  The Giants are off losses vs Minnesota, New England and last week played decent against Arizona.  NY lost that game 27-21 but outgained the Cards and had more first downs but lost the turnover battle 3-0.  NYG QB Jones struggled with games vs New England & Minnesota, two of the best defenses in the NFL, but his other action vs lower half defenses he’s been able to put up at least 21 points in each of those games.  He faces a Detroit defense that has allowed at least 430 yards in each of their last 3 games.  The Lions now rank 31st in the NFL in total defense ahead of only Cincinnati allowing 428 YPG.  The Lions put very little pressure on the QB ranking near the bottom of the NFL in sacks per game (1.7) and sack percentage so Jones should have time to operate.  With RB Saquon Barkley back in the line up as well for the 2nd straight week, the Giants should be able to move the ball and score enough to stay in this game all the way.  Detroit has the tendency to play close games no matter what the competition with 6 of their 7 games decided by 4 points.  The only one that wasn’t was their 12 point loss to Minnesota last week.  Road dogs in the NFL have cashing regularly with a big 45-24-1 ATS mark this year.  We like NY Giants and the points here.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Tampa Bay +2.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is a great spot for Tampa on our opinion.  They are coming off a bye and a bad performance two weeks ago vs Carolina in London.  In that game the Panthers won 37-26 but Tampa outgained them by 140 yards and 5.4 to 4.3 on a yards per play basis.  The problem was the Bucs turned the ball over a ridiculous 7 times!  You have absolutely zero chance to win in the NFL if that happens and for them to keep this game to just a margin of 11 points was pretty surprising under those circumstances.  Now the Buccaneers have had 2 full weeks to get ready for this game and we think they’ll play very well off that poor performance in London.  Tampa has been very comfortable on the road this year winning 2 of their 3 true road games including wins @ LA Rams and @ Carolina.  Their only true road loss was at 6-1 New Orleans.  TB is definitely better than their 2-4 overall record as they are actually outgaining their opponents by a 5.9 to 5.7 YPP basis.  Their defense ranks #1 in the NFL against the rush giving up only 2.9 YPC!  That’s a key here as we know Tennessee relies heavily on their running game averaging 27 carries per game.  While Tampa is off a bye, the Titans are off a 23-20 win at home vs the struggling Chargers.  Tennessee was outgained in the game and allowed LA an average of 6.1 YPP.  The Chargers were about to win the game when RB Melvin Gordon fumbled on the 1-yard line with 19 seconds remaining to preserve the 3 point win for Tennessee.  Ryan Tannehill started at QB in favor of Mariota and had a decent game but he’s been pretty average his entire career so we don’t expect a big boost long term for the Titan offense.  Tennessee is 0-3-1 ATS this year as a favorite and they lost 3 of those games outright.  Long term they’ve been a terrible favorite going just 22-37-2 ATS (37%) in that role over the last decade.  This line says these two are close to dead even on a neutral field.  We disagree.  We have Tampa rated as the better team and we’ll take the points in this game.

ASA 10* TOP GAME PLAY ON NY Jets +7.5 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love the value here with the Jets.  This line tells us that If Jacksonville was @ the Jets the line would be around a pick-em with the Jags potentially even favored.  We just don’t see that.  This line is too high and now with Sam Darnold back at QB we feel these teams are actually pretty close which would make Jacksonville -3 or -3.5 here, NOT -6.5.  In this game we get the Jets coming in off an embarrassment on Monday Night football.  They lost 33-0 to New England, not a huge surprise, and had 6 turnovers.  The Patriots defensive schemes can do that to the best of offenses.  We often see teams play much better off games like this.  Often you can get some line value coming off a Monday Night game like that as people see a team struggle or get shutout and are reluctant to wager on them the next week.  We definitely have that in this game.  Let’s not forget a week earlier this NY Jets team, with Darnold back at the helm, beat Dallas.  Now they play a so-so team in Jacksonville who comes in with a 3-4 record and trending downward in our opinion.  We look for the Jets offense to play much better in this game.  They are off a game facing a New England defense that has been historically good this year and now facing a Jacksonville defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in most key stats (total defense, Yards per play defense, rush defense, and pass defense).  They will also be without 3 key LB’s in this game and that means Jacksonville is down to 1 LB who’s played more than 1 snap this season.  Those are key cluster injuries to a very important position.  Most wouldn’t know it but the Jets have a top 10 defense on a yards per play basis allowing just 5.3 – Jags allow 5.9.  The Jets offensive stats are very poor but not reflective of the current offense.  They are a completely different offense with Darnold at the helm and the play calling reflects that.  He has played in just 3 games but has led NY to all but one of their TD’s on the season.  Also remember, that 2 of those games came against New England and Buffalo, two of the top three defenses in the NFL in total yards allowed.  They are facing a Jacksonville team that won 27-17 @ Cincinnati (who’s now 0-7) last week but were trailing 10-9 in the fourth quarter and the Jags were the beneficiary of a pick 6 for 7 of their 27 points.  QB Gardner Minshew was the talk of the NFL in his first few starts but now that there is film on him, he’s come back down to earth a bit and the defenses have adjusted.   In his last 2 games, Minshew has completed just 29 of his 61 pass attempts (47.5%) with only 1 TD and 1 interception.  He also had his two lowest QB ratings in those 2 most recent games.  In their last 2 games vs the Saints & Bengals, the Jaguars had 22 total offensive possessions and Minshew led them to ONE touchdown.  That’s it.  He’s struggling and if that means Jacksonville has to rely on their running game, they are facing a Jets defense that ranks #2 in the NFL allowing only 3.3 yards per carry.  We see this as a tight game throughout and one the Jets can absolutely win.  Getting +7 or more here is worth a solid play in this one.  

ASA PLAY ON 9* Washington State Cougars (+) over Oregon Ducks, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #153

At 4-0 in Pac-12 action, Oregon is atop the Pac-12 North and, on the other side of the standings, at 3-1 in Pac-12 action entering Friday's game at Colorado, USC is atop the Pac-12 South. That holds some significance here because next up for the Ducks is a big game at Southern Cal. The last time Oregon visited USC they left smarting from a 25 point road loss. This is clearly a spot where the Ducks could get caught looking ahead to a big game on deck. Oregon could look right past a 1-3 Washington State team and that will prove to be a mistake as the Cougars are a team that has a history of giving the Ducks trouble. This is particularly true at the betting window as Oregon is 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games against the Cougars. This includes the Ducks going 0-4 SU in their last 4 games against Washington State. The Cougars enter this game with plenty of confidence as coach Mike Leach, when it comes to facing Oregon, has had their number in recent years plus Washington State rolled to a 41-10 home win last week! Even in weather conditions that weren't the greatest, the Cougars got their offense rolling plus showed improve defensive play in knocking off Colorado. With their first Pac-12 win under their belt and an offense that at 7.66 yards per play ranks 4th in the nation for offensive efficiency, the Cougars are going to give the Ducks all they can handle here. Grab the big points with Washington State on the road in late night action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* California Golden Bears (+) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10:00 PM ET: Game #141

Utah is in a huge lookahead spot here. We still expect the Utes to get the win here as they certainly are the superior team to Cal but this is simply far too many points for Utah to be laying in this spot. Last year the Utes lost the Pac-12 Championship game to the Huskies. Next week's game for Utah (you guessed it!) is at Washington! Suffice to say the Utes have that game on their mind a bit as it also difficult for them to get too excited about this match-up with a Golden Bears team that has been struggling. Of course overlooking a Cal team that is ranked 20th in the nation for scoring defense certainly could prevent Utah from covering a spread that is in the 3 TD range here! The Bears have excelled in this role recently as they are actually a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they have been a road dog in Pac-12 action. The Utes have been very strong defensively this season and allowed just 3 points to Arizona State last week. However, a late turnover is what led to Utah getting a somewhat fortunate cover in that one. The Utes "luck" runs out here as Cal is only 4-3 SU on the season but note that Utah is 0-8 ATS when they are off a game where they allowed 9 or less points and are now facing a team with a winning percentage of .599 or less. The Golden Bears will be a scrappy underdog here and hang within the big number the odds makers set on this game. Grab the big points with California as a big road dog in late night action Saturday.

ASA 10* play on: Indiana Pacers -5.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET

These two teams have very different season projections with the Pacers expected to win roughly 48 games while the Cavs season win total is 24. That essentially tells us what these teams are all about, so we have a good team off a loss laying a marginal number on the road. Granted, the Cavaliers are off a loss too but again, they are not a good team. Last season the Pacers were 18-17 SU off a loss, Cleveland was 15-47. Last year the Pacers were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points, so we have some value in today’s spread. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA a season ago with a top 10 road defensive efficiency ratings. The Cavs last season had the 3rd worst home point differential at minus -7.3PPG and were last in home defensive efficiency ratings. In the 4 meetings last season the Pacers won by 8 or more points. The Pacers have covered 5 of the last six meetings on this court. Lay the points.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Temple Owls (+) over UCF Knights, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #124

This is a great value spot with Temple at home.  The Owls are coming off an embarrassing performance at SMU which was to be expected after they upset Memphis here at home the week prior.  Speaking of that Memphis game, the Owls were +4 to +4.5 in that game and now they are getting 10+ points vs UCF.  Why is that significant?  We have UCF and Memphis rated almost the exact same in our power ratings (UCF would be a 1-point favorite on a neutral field) yet we are getting 6 more points in this game.  That’s the value we are talking about.  UCF is overrated in our opinion.  They have played 3 road games this year and lost 2 of those games @ Cincinnati and @ Pitt and were favored in both.  Temple, on the other hand, is 4-0 SU & ATS at home winning 2 of those games outright as underdogs vs Maryland & Memphis.  The Owls have been a consistent money maker as a home underdog with an 8-1 ATS mark their last 9 winning SIX of those games outright.  We also get them at home coming off by far their worst performance of the year @ SMU.  It was a terrible spot for Temple as SMU was off a bye week and a home game vs Tulsa in which they played poorly.  The Mustangs were catching Temple off their Memphis upset as we mentioned, and the Owl defense was shredded for 655 yards.  That is very atypical for this defense that had held 5 of their first 6 opponents under their current scoring average.  UCF QB Dillon is a freshman and hasn’t been great on the road with his 3 lowest QB rating games being his 3 road contests.  Last year Temple was +10.5 @ UCF and led 34-28 at half.  The Owls outgained the Knights in that game but wound up losing 52-40 with UCF scoring 17 points in the last 15:00 minutes of the game.  After the way they lost last year, coming off a poor performance last week, and at home where they’ve been very good, we look for Temple to keep this game close throughout. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #169

Oklahoma State is off what, on the surface, appears to be a blowout loss to Baylor 45-27 last week. However, that game unraveled late for the Cowboys as they were done in by late turnovers. Note that the Bears pulled away late in the game courtesy of some key turnovers. The fact is that Oklahoma State had 27 first downs in the game compared to 18 for Baylor. The point we're making here is that the Cowboys weren't nearly as bad as the final score would indicate in last week's loss and now they're catching double digits against an Iowa State team that comes into this game overvalued. The Cyclones two toughest games this season were hosting Iowa and visiting Baylor. Iowa State lost both games. The Cyclones do have a bye on deck but then face Oklahoma and Texas. Both the Sooners and Longhorns beat Iowa State last season and the loss to the Sooners was the only Big 12 home loss that the Cyclones had all season long. Should the Cyclones lose focus a bit here against a Cowboys team that is 1-3 in Big 12 action (Oklahoma and Texas a combined 7-1 in Big 12 action), Oklahoma State absolutely can make them pay. The Cowboys rank 8th in the nation in total offense this season and Oklahoma State is playing this game with revenge from a home loss to the Cyclones last year. While Iowa State is playing for the 7th consecutive week (and 3 of last 4 have been on the road), the Cowboys had a bye week two weeks ago and will prove to be the fresher team in this match-up. Also, from a motivational standpoint, OSU will bring their A game this week after B2B SU losses by a double digit margin. In fact, this play is also supported by an angle along those lines. The Cyclones are 0-6 ATS the last 6 times they've been favored by 19.5 points or less against an opponent off B2B SU losses including the most recent defeat coming by a double digit margin. The Cowboys will be ready Saturday and have the offense to stay within a score throughout this conference clash. Grab the generous points with Oklahoma State as a sizable road dog in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Michigan State Spartans (+) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #162

We couldn’t ask for a better set up here for MSU.  They are coming off two of their worst losses of the season @ Ohio State 34-10 & @ Wisconsin 38-0.  That’s as tough a back to back road game scenario as anyone in the country had or has this year.  Now we look for MSU, who is coming off a bye, to play with a huge chip on their shoulder at home vs Penn State on Saturday.  The Nittany Lions are on the other end of the spectrum situation wise as they are off a huge home win over Michigan.  It was the most anticipated home game for Penn State this season and a game they had been waiting for after getting embarrassed by Michigan last year.  They picked up a big 28-21 win but PSU was completely outplayed on the field.  They had 12 fewer first downs, were outgained by 125 total yards and had a 15 minute time of possession disadvantage.  After jumping out to a 21-0 lead, Penn State had less than 100 yards of offense from that point on and were held to 1.9 yards per play in the 2nd half.  The Michigan offense, which had been struggling, put up 417 yards, the most PSU has allowed this season.  The Lions held on for dear life at the end and a Michigan dropped pass in the endzone prevented this one from going to OT.  They had nearly the same situation a week earlier as they played a physical game vs Iowa and held on to win 17-12.  Both games were prime time ABC night games.  The way those games played out we expect Penn State to have trouble getting up to their peak level for this road game.  The PSU offense gets credit for being explosive, however the top two defenses they played this year (Michigan & Iowa) held them to 293 & 294 yards respectively and they were outgained in both games.  Now facing an angry MSU defense that is among the best in the nation, we look for the Nittany Lions to struggle offensively on Saturday.  The Spartan defense was allowing just 55 YPG rushing before hitting their OSU & Wisconsin games.  The Buckeyes ran over Sparty for more than 300 yards which wasn’t surprising as the OSU offense might be the best unit in college football right now.  A week later they were more effective holding Badger All American Jonathan Taylor to just 80 yards on 26 carries but you could see MSU was just worn out physically & emotionally from their Ohio State game the week before.  Offensively they did not play well vs those two defenses who rank #1 and #2 NATIONALLY in total defense.  If you throw out those 2 games, MSU is averaging 31 PPG on the season so they are not as bad as they’ve looked the last 2 weeks.  Off a bye, we expect some new wrinkles on offense and facing a PSU defense coming off 2 huge games, we think the Spartan offense will look much better on Saturday.  The have outgained every opponent this year with the exception of OSU & Wisconsin.  Off 2 weeks of rest and two embarrassing performances, we look for the Spartans to play their best game of the season in a must win spot.  We’re getting nearly a field goal of line value here as well in our opinion.  We rate MSU and Iowa nearly dead even on a neutral field yet Michigan State is getting nearly a FG more than what Iowa was getting (+3) at home in this match up just 2 weeks ago and MSU is in a much better situation than the Hawkeyes were.  The Spartans have been a money making underdog with a record of 21-9 ATS their last 30 as a puppy.  They’ve also beaten PSU outright each of the last 2 seasons as a double digit underdog so MSU won’t lack for confidence here.  We like the Spartans to win this game at home so we’re taking the points.

ASA PLAY ON: Utah Jazz +3.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – Yes, we know this isn’t going to be a popular pick as everyone has been brainwashed into thinking LeBron is still the LeBron he was 5 or 6 years ago and this Lakers team will win it all this year. The reality is that LeBron won’t win another Championship! In LBJ’s defense, it gets lost he’s played 16 NBA seasons. But when you add in 239 playoff games it essentially adds three more seasons to his resume. Father time is unbeaten. Moving on, it’s going to take time for this roster to jell and they face a Utah Jazz team that won 50 games a year ago, was 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency and had the 4th best road point differential at +2.7PPG. The Jazz won their opener against OKC the other night and did it with newly acquired Mike Conley going 1 of 16 from the field.  This roster is deep and has playmakers at every position including Donovan Mitchell who scored 32 in the opener. With Joe Ingles in the lineup the Jazz have beaten the Lakers in 14 of the last eighteen meetings. Contrary to what you might think, the Lakers have not been good off a loss with a 4-10 ATS record their last fourteen. The Lakers are going to get everyone’s best punch every single night and the Jazz will come here and send this other Los Angeles team to 0-2.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -2.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – We like the situation and will back the home team Celtics here off a loss in the opener. Toronto is off a home win which was much tougher than it should have been against the Pelicans. The Celtics lost in Philly the other night and the main contributing factor was poor shooting by the C’s. Boston hit just 36.7% of their overall FG attempts and under 27% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages a year ago and now they are at home in a more friendly shooting environment. Last season Boston had a top 12 team at home in: margin of victory, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Granted, Toronto had good road numbers too but that was with Kawhi Leonard who is clearly one of the three best players in the entire NBA. Against a bad defensive team from a year ago, the Pelicans (23rd in DEFF), the Raptors shot just 40% a team and benefited from ‘home cooking’ and +15 free throw makes in their win. Boston is 84-49 SU versus the East since 2017 and 57-26 SU at home as a favorite in that same time frame. With the line where it is, we are basically asking the Celtics to just win this game which they’ll do by more than the spread. Boston has covered four straight at home over Toronto and the host is on a 9-0 spread run.

ASA PLAY ON: NY KNICKS +10.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:30PM ET – It’s a fresh start and the Knicks have a clean slate to start the season after tanking last year. New York doesn’t know how bad they’re going to be this season, so we expect a max effort tonight in San Antonio. In fairness to New York they will win more than 17 games this year with a semi-talented roster that can beat just about anyone in the East on any given night. Julius Randle is coming off his best season with 21PPG, 8.7RPG and 3.1APG and can play at a very high level. The backcourt is athletic with Dennis Smith Jr, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock (out) and RJ Barrett. Marcus Morris and Taj Gibson brings veteran leadership and toughness while Kevin Knox and Bobby Portis have huge upside. New York was a dismal 8-32 SU on the road last season with an average differential of minus -10.8PPG which is essentially tonight’s spread AND that record is with them trying to lose to get the #1 pick in the draft! San Antonio returns a roster of veterans and youth and basically stood pat in free agency. They do get Dejounte Murray back from injury who is a budding star, but he did miss the entire season a year ago. The Spurs were 34-10 SU a year ago at home with an average margin of victory of just +6.7PPG. San Antonio was one of the slowest paced teams at home last year which makes covering larger numbers more difficult with less chances to score for each team. San Antonio was a double-digit home favorite 8 times last year and they only covered twice. New York stays within the number here. Grab the points!

ASA PLAY ON: Toronto Raptors -6.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, Tuesday 8PM ET – The news out of the Big Easy is the injury status of Zion Williamson who is now out for 6-8 weeks after knee surgery. That news doesn’t affect this game though as he was already out for this season opener. The Raptors are without Kawhi Leonard here who left the Great North for green pastures in Los Angeles, but this roster still has talent. Toronto has Marc Gasol in the middle, budding star Pascal Siakam, (All Star) Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby. The Raptors had the 3rd best overall point differential in the NBA last season and the 7th best at home of +7.5PPG. Home court has been a tremendous advantage for the Purple Dinasaurs in recent years as their average margin of victory since 2017 is +8.6PPG. The Pelicans were just 14-27 SU on the road last season with Anthony Davis on the roster. Their average loss margin per game on the road was minus -1.8PPG which was 18th in the NBA. This team is now essentially the Lakers from a year ago with Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart coming to New Orleans in the trade for A.D. Last year when the Lakers went to Toronto, they were +7-points and they had LeBron on that roster. Last year the Raptors won 32 regular season home game and 23 of those wins came by more than tonight’s spread. This Raptors team is going to be very eager to prove it wasn’t all Kawhi last year and they’ll get a double-digit win in the opener.

ASA NHL PLAY 9* ON Columbus Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Toronto, Monday at 7:05 PM ET

The Blue Jackets had a rough start to the season their first two games.  However, since then Columbus has picked up at least a point in the standings in 5 of their last 6 games.  During this stretch every single game the Blue Jackets have played has ended up being a 1 goal game.  Columbus got 3 wins, 2 OT losses, and a 1-goal loss in regulation in these 6 games.  As you can see with those numbers, the Blue Jackets at +1.5 goals would be 6-0 their last 6 games!  As for the Maple Leafs, they are off a win but it was a one-goal win that game in overtime versus Boston.  Also, prior to that win for Toronto they had lost 4 of 6 prior games and that was with John Tavares on the ice!  He is their team captain and one of their star players and he is now out for two weeks with a broken finger.  Columbus has a great shot at the outright upset here but if they do fall short, per our computer math model, the game will be their 7th straight one-goal game.  The Blue Jackets take the Maple Leafs to the wire in this one as they seek to avenge suffering a loss in their home opener versus Toronto earlier this month.  Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying a very fair price, currently in -140 range) with Columbus is the value play here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Seattle comes in with a shaky 5-1 record in our opinion.  Four of their five wins have come down to the wire with margins of 1, 1, 2, and 4 points.  Their only comfortable win was @ Arizona.  All of their 5 wins have come against teams that are currently at or below .500 and again, most were decided in the last few minutes of play.  The only team they’ve faced that currently has a winning record, the Saints, beat them here on their home field.  Both of these teams come off deceiving results last week.  Baltimore beat Cincinnati 23-17 but dominated the game outgaining the Bengals by 250 yards.  Seattle was down 20-6 @ Cleveland and had to claw back to pick up a 32-28 win and were aided by 4 Browns turnovers (just 1 for Seattle).  The Ravens lead the NFL in total offense averaging 450 YPG and their YPG differential is an impressive +100 (Seattle’s is +40).  The Ravens also lead the NFL in rushing at 205 YPG and they are playing into a Seattle defense that allows 4.7 YPC (25th in the NFL).  Their balanced attack with QB Jackson mixing in the passing game should keep the Seattle defense that allows 6.0 YPP (25th in the NFL) off balance.  Seattle’s once vaunted home field advantage isn’t so great anymore.  They are just 9-7 SU their last 16 home games and their ATS mark here is 6-11 their last 17 (0-3 ATS this year).  They have not been impressive here this year with a 1-point win over an 0-6 Cincinnati team (Bengals outgained Seattle by 197 yards), a loss to New Orleans, and a 1-point win over the Rams who misses a FG as time expired which would have won the game.  Baltimore, on the other hand, thrives in this role with a 6-0-1 ATS mark as a road underdog.  We give the Ravens a great shot at the win and if not, we’re guessing it comes to the wire so any points are valuable here.

ASA 8* PLAY ON NY Giants -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is a fantastic spot for the Giants.  They have had 10 days to get ready for this game after losing on Thursday night to the Patriots.  They get the face the Cards who are coming off back to back upset wins vs Cincy & Atlanta and now must travel to the east coast.  It’s the Cardinals 2nd trip to the eastern time zone in 3 weeks.  After starting out very well vs TB & Washington, New York’s QB Daniel Jones has struggled the last 2 games but keep in mind those were against two of the best defensive teams in the NFL (Pats & Vikings).  Those 2 teams are top 5 in the NFL in both total defense and YPP defense.  Now with extra time off they get to face an Arizona defense that ranks 30th in defensive efficiency (Football Outsiders), 30th in total defense, and 28th in YPP defense.  Last week Arizona allowed the Falcons to gain 7.0 YPP and a week earlier a BAD Cincinnati offense averaged 6 YPP vs this defense.  Jones also gets two of his top offensive weapons back this week as RB Saquon Barkley returns from injury along with TE Engram.  We look for the NYG offense to play very well on Sunday.  Arizona was outgained last week, had fewer first downs and a 5:00 minute time of possession disadvantage in their 34-33 win over Atlanta.  The Falcons scored late to presumably tie the game but missed the XP and lost by 1.  The Birds are just 2-9 ATS their last 11 trips to the east coast time zone and the situation is not ideal as we mentioned.  We currently have these teams rated almost identical which would mean NYG should be a 3-point home favorite which is where it sits.  However, factoring in the situation and the key players returning on offense for the Giants, we think the line should be higher.  Take the Giants here.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Oakland +5 over Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM T

This is a rough spot for the Packers.  They are on a short week after coming from behind to beat division rival Detroit on Monday night.  It took a last second FG from Mason Crosby to win that game 23-22.  Now off that huge win they must get ready for an AFC team (not as important as division games) who is playing very well and coming off a bye week.  The Raiders are coming off wins @ Indy and vs Chicago in London two weeks ago.  Two solid opponents and Oakland outgained them by a combined 193 yards.  They outrushed those two teams by a whopping 234 yards and now face a Green Bay defense on a short week that allows 4.9 YPC which is good for 25th in the NFL.  Offensively the Packers will have problems with their passing attack on Sunday as most of their key receivers are hurting.  Davante Adams is out, Geronimo Allison didn’t practice all week and is doubtful, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling was out all week until Friday and practiced on that day on a limited basis a may not play.  Those 3 players account for 72% of Green Bay’s receiving yards this year.  The Packers have been looking to add receivers all week and picked up WR Ryan Grant who wasn’t on an NFL roster.  We still feel GB is a bit overvalued as their 5-1 record comes with a negative YPP differential (-0.3 YPP).  That’s actually the same YPP differential as Oakland brings into this game.  The Raiders are rested and confident and we see this as a close game and the points here are very valuable.    

ASA 8* PLAY ON Washington +10.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Plug your nose and play this one.  We’re assuming it looks to most like the Niners are an easy play here and those are many times the most dangerous games.  Over 80% of the wagers are on San Fran and the line originally dropped from -10 to -9.5 which is a pretty significant reverse line movement coming off 10.  The sharps were on Washington here and now that the general public has pushed this game back to 10 and 10.5 late in the week, we’ll jump in on the Skins.  SF is off 2 huge home wins beating Cleveland on Monday night (was big because SF hasn’t been on Monday night often as of late) and then they topped division rival and last year’s NFC Super Bowl participant the LA Rams.  Now they travel to the eastern time zone for the third time already this year, this time as a double digit favorite.  We sense a definite let down for the 49ers here.  As crazy as it may sound, Washington has some momentum coming in after beating Miami on the road last week.  Case Keenum is back at QB and he definitely gives the Skins the best chance to win.  Already this year Washington was +5 at home vs Chicago and +6 here vs Dallas and now they are getting 10+ from San Francisco?  The Niners are also a bit banged up coming in with both CB’s questionable and RB Breida working on a bum ankle and may not play.  San Fran is not used to being in this spot as they have not been a double digit road favorite since 2012.  They are just 5-8 ATS as a double digit road favorite dating way back to 1995.  We have a feeling this one will be much closer than people think. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #372

Washington State is coming in extra hungry for a win off 3 consecutive losses. Last week they led Arizona State on the road late and the Devils picked up a TD with under 1:00 minute remaining to get the 38-34 win. Their game prior to that was a loss @ Utah and a flat spot coming off an embarrassing home loss. Speaking of their most recent home game it was a full month ago and it was an embarrassment as we said with the Cougars blowing a 49-17 lead in a 67-64 loss to UCLA. Now back at home for the first time since blowing that massive lead, you can bet WSU won’t hold back here. No lead is too safe will be their outlook. This is a bad spot for Colorado playing their 2nd of back to back road game after getting destroyed 45-3 @ Oregon last week. It’s not only a bad situation but a terrible match up for the Buffs. The Colorado defense is one of the worst in the nation at defending the pass and WSU QB Anthony Gordon can wing it with the best of them. The Buff defense currently ranks 123rd nationally in total defense (out of 130), 118th in pass efficiency defense, and 124th in passing yards allowed. Those terrible numbers INCLUDE a game vs Air Force who rarely passes and still threw for 155 yards on CU. On Saturday they face a Washington State passing offense that ranks #1 nationally lighting it up for 453 YPG through the air. Their QB Gordon is completing 71% of his passes and has 25 TD’s and just 6 interceptions on the year. The CU defense has allowed 30 or more points in EVERY game this season and they will not stop this Cougar offense that will be on a mission in this game. We expect upper 40’s to 50+ from WSU in this game. The Colorado offense is reeling a bit after scoring only 3 points last week @ Oregon and we don’t expect them to be able to keep up in this game. WSU has dominated the last 2 games in this series (one on the road and one at home) winning 31-7 last year and 28-0 the previous year with a combined yardage edge of +412. These two both have 3-3 record but there is a reason State is favored by almost 2 TD’s. They have a +1.2 YPP margin on the year while Colorado has a -1.1 YPP margin. Washington State is better than their record and CU should not be a .500 team. Lay it in this one.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Rice Owls (-) over UTSA Roadrunners, Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #415

When you see an 0-6 team listed as the favorite on the road it certainly may seem surprising or you may feel it is a mistake. Of course the reality is that the odds makers made the 0-6 Owls the favorite with plenty of good reasoning! One thing we know for sure is that the 2-4 Roadrunners are not a very good football team. They have a win over a non-FBS team (Incarnate Word) and their other win came against a 1-4 UTEP team. The reason that Rice is without a win while the Roadrunners have two victories on the season simply comes down to scheduling. The Owls have faced a much tougher schedule this season. 3 of Rice's 6 losses have come by a single possession. Also, the Owls do have revenge here as the Roadrunners have held the upper hand in their meetings in recent seasons. This is Owls coach Bloomgreen's 2nd season with the team and Rice, downtrodden for so long, is showing improvement even though that has yet to shown up in the win column. With this being an I-10 rivalry game (San Antonio just 3 hours west of Houston on the interstate), this is the ideal spot for the highly motivated Owls to break into the win column. The Roadrunners got destroyed by UAB last week while Rice enters this game off a bye week. The Runners were outgained 492 to 220 in last week's loss to the Blazers. Both teams struggle in terms of offensive efficiency this season but the Roadrunners also are horrible in terms of defensive efficiency and rank 116th in the nation in that category. Look for the Owls to break off some big runs for huge yardage in this one as the UTSA defense continues to struggle with giving up too many big plays. The Rice run defense actually held Texas, La Tech, UAB and Baylor to an average of just 127 rushing yards per game. Of course those teams all have offensive attacks vastly superior to the Roadrunners offense. UTSA struggles to throw the ball too and hasn't even thrown for 100 passing yards in 3 of their 6 games. .As a result, the Roadrunners drop to 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games with another ugly home performance here. Lay the small points with Rice as a small road favorite in early evening action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #397

UNC is in a great spot coming off a bye for this revenge game. It’s a game they’ve been waiting for after losing at home last year 22-19 to the Hokies. It was a game that saw UNC dominate the stat sheet (522 yards to 375) but they watched Va Tech score a TD with 19 seconds remaining to get the come from behind win. We’d argue that UNC is much better this year compared to last season’s team and Va Tech is down from a year ago. There is definitely a reason the 3-3 Tar Heels are favored at the 4-2 Hokies. North Carolina has played the much tougher schedule already facing the likes of South Carolina (win), Clemson (lost by 1), Wake (lost by 6), and Miami FL (win). All 3 of their losses have come down to the wire including their near win over National Champion Clemson – UNC went for 2 and the win late in the game but were unsuccessful. Even with their tough schedule the Heels are outgaining their opponents 425 to 371 and QB Howell has been very good with 15 TD’s and just 3 interceptions. Head coach Mack Brown has this team confident and playing very well. Va Tech, on the other hand, has played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They’ve already played 2 FCS teams and struggled with both. They barely got by Furman earlier in the year and last week they led Rhode Island only 24-17 heading into the 4th quarter. Their other wins came vs Miami FL but the Hokies were outgained by 230 yards in the game and benefited from 5 Cane interceptions and Old Dominion who currently has 1 win on the year. Despite their 4 wins and their ultra easy schedule, VT is dead even yardage wise on the year averaging 380 YPG and allowing 380 YPG. If you subtract their games vs FCS opponents VT is averaging 360 YPG on 5.1 YPP while allowing 435 YPG on 6.0 YPP. Tech is 0-3 ATS at home this year and their once vaunted home field advantage has gone by the wayside as of late as they have won only 3 of their last 8 home games vs FBS opponents dating back to the start of last season. They also continue to be overvalued covering only 4 of their last 15 games overall. UNC the much better team and rested. We’ll lay it.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) over LSU Tigers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #380

This is simply a case of too many points. LSU is off a huge win versus Florida last week and also has a big game with Auburn on deck. That makes this a very tough spot here for the Tigers as they take on a Mississippi State team that will want to make the most of this opportunity on its home field. The Bulldogs have covered 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. Keep in mind that the Tigers were actually down by a TD in the 3rd quarter of their win over the Gators last week. As for the Bulldogs, they are off a loss at Tennessee last week in a game in which Mississippi State was favored by a touchdown. Clearly the Bulldogs got caught looking ahead to this week's big game and, as a result, they paid the price (outright upset loss as a favorite). Last year's match-up with LSU was the first for Mississippi State with Moorhead as head coach. Suffice to say, neither here nor the players have forgotten it either as the Bulldogs were held to just 3 points in that defeat! They've been looking forward to this opportunity to atone for that performance. Before their low-scoring loss to the Volunteers last week, the Bulldogs had not been held below 23 points in any of their first 5 games this season. The Mississippi State offense bounces back this week and takes advantage of catching LSU is what is a classic flat spot for the Tigers. The Bulldogs are highly unlikely to get the outright upset here but, per our computer math model, they will keep the margin in this game much closer than what the betting market is forecasting. Grab the big points with Mississippi State as a big home dog in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) over Cincinnati Bearcats, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #339

The Bearcats won big at Houston last week but they were actually outgained by the Cougars in that game. Certainly Cincinnati deserves credit for the win but the fact is they had two very short TD drives and also the defense scored a TD in that game. As a result, this week the markets have Cincinnati over-valued in this spot and we won't hesitate to take advantage with the hungry underdog, Tulsa, in this one. The road team has covered each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. The Golden Hurricane enter this game off an ugly loss to Navy last week but that was not unexpected. It was a bad spot for Tulsa after a gut-wrenching triple-overtime loss to SMU. Also, the Golden Hurricane faced the unique option attack of the Midshipmen last week. Again, not a good match-up nor a good situation for Tulsa. As a result, the markets have heavily undervalued the Golden Hurricane here because of the recent results. The fact is that, last week notwithstanding, the Tulsa defense had shown improvement this season. The Golden Hurricane allowed an average of just 27 points in regulation time of their first 5 games this season. The Bearcats are being asked to cover 17 points here and that is a big ask when consideration is given to the above. The Golden Hurricane are 16-8 ATS the last 24 times they have been a road dog. Cincinnati is averaging only 28.7 points per game at home this season. The big road dog keeps this one close as Bearcats get caught already thinking about their upcoming bye week. Grab the big points with Tulsa on the road in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* UCLA Bruins (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #307

The Bruins and Cardinal both enter this game off a bye.  However, prior to their bye UCLA lost to Oregon State while Stanford had huge win (over Washington) and are off their best game of the season.  Teams often end up flat after a game like that and that is the reason the sharp money is on the Bruins in this game.  Consider that Stanford has won 11 in a row SU in this series and yet the line (Cardinal as a favorite) has been moving down all week long.  UCLA certainly has had issues this season (including with their pass defense) but this situation is ripe for an upset and the Bruins have actually played better on the road than at home this season.  Per our computer math model, that trend continues here as UCLA improves to 3-0 ATS last 3 road games.  Stanford is 0-5 ATS the last 5 times the Cardinal has been a home favorite of 3.5 points or less.  That makes this a double perfect ATS spot to fade Stanford and play the Bruins as they travel well for a 3rd straight time at the betting window!  Grab the points with UCLA as a small road underdog in evening action Thursday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +4 over Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

Green Bay is off a big win @ Dallas but looking at the stats they were quite fortunate.  The Cowboys outgained GB by 228 yards and averaged a whopping 8.2 YPP vs the Packer defense.  Green Bay’s offense only averaged 5.2 YPP in the game.  Dallas had 3 big turnovers which contributed to the Packer win.  Green Bay is not quite as good as their 4-1 record might indicates as they are getting outgained by -40 YPG and -0.6 YPP.  The defense looked great early but they’ve definitely come back to earth.  After completely shutting down a bad Chicago offense in their season opener, the GB defense has allowed an average of 6.2 YPP over their last 4 games.  Detroit has a situational advantage here coming off a bye.  They have also beaten Green Bay 4 straight times including 2 wins here at Lambeau which gives them confidence coming in.  The Lions have played a tough schedule beating the Chargers and Eagles.  They blew a big lead @ Arizona to open the season in a game that ended in a tie and their only loss was vs the Chiefs in a game Detroit led with under 1:00 minute remaining.  The Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of their last 4 meetings with Green Bay and with the Packer defense not as good as people are making them out to be, Detroit could get there again.  All of Detroit’s games this year have been decided by 4 points or less and we see another close one here.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams -3 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

We love this spot for the Rams.  They have had a full 10 days to get ready for this one after their 30-29 road loss @ Seattle last Thursday.  It was their 2nd of back to back losses after they lost to Tampa the previous Sunday.  Now you have the team that was in last year’s Super Bowl sitting at 3-2 in a must win spot at home.  The Niners, on the other hand, come in on a short week after beating Cleveland Monday night.  So San Francisco is undefeated at 4-0 but they come into this game overvalued in our opinion.  The four teams they’ve beaten are all currently under .500 and they have a combined record of just 5-15.  Last year when these teams met in LA the Rams were -10.5 favorites and now they are laying only a FG?  We realize Niner QB Garoppolo didn’t play in that game and SF looks improved but should this line really be a full 7.5 points off from last season?  The value and situation absolutely favor LA here.  In the Sean McVay era, the Rams have lost back to back games only twice and the rebounded with win and cover their next game both times.  Historically NFL home favorites off Thursday night games (extra prep time) facing teams off Monday night games (short week) have covered 9 of 12 times.  San Fran’s defense has looked good this year but let’s keep in mind that all of their opponents have an offense ranked 18th or lower (offensive efficiency via Football Outsiders) and 3 of those teams rank 25th or lower.  The QB’s they’ve faced this year are Mason Rudolph, Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield, and Jameis Winston.  This week they take a step up facing Jared Goff.  Now to the LA defense.  After holding their first 3 opponents to 49 total points, the LA defense wasn’t great the last 2 weeks including last week @ Seattle where they allowed 30 points.  However, the Seattle offense ranks 3rd in the NFL in efficiency which is far better than any offense SF has faced.  They’ve already faced Russell Wilson, Cam Newton when he was healthy, and Drew Brees who are all far better than an QB the Niners have faced.  We expect the Rams defense, which is very talented to play much better at home after two somewhat embarrassing performances.  We also look for the offense to play well vs a 49er defense with solid stats because they’ve played weak offenses.  This is a much, much bigger game for the experienced Rams and we like them to win by more than a FG. 

ASA 8* PLAY ON Jacksonville -1.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

There is a reason the team with a 2-3 record is favored over the team with the 4-1 record.   Most will look at that an automatically bet the “better” team as an underdog.  We’re not so sure the Saints are the better team right now.  As of this writing well over 60% of the total tickets are on New Orleans, however over 70% of the money has come in on Jacksonville.  Sharp money is coming in on the Jags and we definitely agree with that.  Despite their losing record, Jacksonville outgains their opponents by 6 YPG and +0.2 YPP.  New Orleans, on the other hand, has just one loss but is getting outgained on the year by -15 YPG and -0.4 YPP.  The Saints are 3-0 with Teddy Bridgewater under center but we feel they’ve been very fortunate.  His first start @ Seattle the Saints were outgained by 250 yards but still won.  Then they played host to Dallas and won 12-10 with the Cowboys having 3 turnovers in the game – Saints were +2 in TO margin in the game.  Then last week they beat TB and the Bucs were off a huge win @ LA Rams and on the road for the 2nd straight week which was a very good situation for New Orleans.  Their 4 wins this year have come by a total of 17 points so they are not dominating anyone.  Now they go on the road vs a team that is better than their record.  In their losses Jacksonville outgained Carolina (in a 7 point loss) and outgained Houston (in a 1 point loss) both on the road.  The only game where they didn’t have a chance to win was their season opener vs KC (lost 40-26) when QB Minshew came in for the first action of his career replacing Nick Foles who was injured in the game.  Underrated vs Overrated here in our opinion and we’ll take the home team.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Cincinnati +12 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Ravens continue to be overvalued by the oddsmakers and the public.  This team is simply not very good.  Their defense ranks 31st allowing 6.7 YPP and the only team that is worse are the hapless Dolphins.  The Ravens wins have come against Miami, Arizona, and Pittsburgh.  The Arizona & Pittsburgh wins came down to the wire and last week the game with the Steelers, who were playing their 3rd string QB in the 4th quarter, went to OT.  Despite playing an easy schedule, their only double digit win was @ Miami to open the season.  The Bengals are 0-5 but they’ve been competitive more often than not with 3 of their 5 losses coming by 4 points or less.  They’ve also played much better on the road this year taking Seattle & Buffalo, both better teams than Baltimore, to the wire in 1 and 4 points losses respectively.  Cincy was +9 @ Seattle and +6.5 @ Buffalo and now they are getting double digits at division rival Baltimore?  The value is absolutely on Cincinnati here.  Laying double digits with a poor defense is not a way to get rich quick when wagering on football.  Baltimore is already 0-2 ATS as a home favorite this season and just 10-22-1 ATS their last 33 games as a home chalk.  Going back to 2010 they are 4-11 ATS as a double digit favorite.  Cincinnati has lost by more than 11 points only twice in the last 20 meetings between these two AFC North rivals.  The last time a team in this series was favored by double digits was way back in 2001 and the dog has also covered 9 of the last 10.  This one should be close.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Navy Midshipmen (-) over Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #123

The Tulsa offense is struggling this season and ranked in the bottom 20 of the nation for offensive efficiency as they average just 4.99 yards per play. The Golden Hurricane come into this game off a very emotionally draining loss as they fell in triple overtime against SMU. Not only is that a tough loss to bounce back from on the simple fact that it is was a defeat in 3 OTs, there are more facts here that make it even tougher! For one thing Tulsa missed a pair of field goals in overtime including one that would have immediately ended the game had they made it. Additionally, and an even bigger factor relating to the disappointment for the Golden Hurricane here, is that they blew a 3 touchdown 4th quarter lead. Tulsa led that game against the Mustangs by a count of 30-9 in the final stanza! Another concern for the Golden Hurricane here is the fact that their inefficient offense also plays a fast pace. They rank in the top 20 in the nation for pace on offense. But if you're playing fast but, as the same time, not efficiently in terms of your production, than you're going to be punting quickly and forcing your defense to spend too much time on the field. That defense is going to be challenged this week in a big way. Coming off a 3-OT game and then facing the option attack is truly double trouble for a team and the Golden Hurricane have a history of struggling to stop Navy. They allowed nearly 400 rushing yards in last season's match-up and this rushing yardage range has actually been the norm for the Midshipmen in recent series history. Although Navy comes into this game off a win over rival Air Force they will not be flat here. The Midshipmen actually have a history of performing well under their current head coach when they are off their annual game against the Falcons and we expect no drop-off here. Navy enters this game on a 6-1 ATS run their last 7 games in regular season action and, per our computer math model, the Tulsa struggles on both sides of the ball continue in what is a very tough spot for them after last week's result against SMU. Bet Navy on the road in early evening action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #204

We’re getting nearly a TD of value on Iowa here when comparing this number to the first line that came out before the season started.  That line had the Hawkeyes favored by -2 and -3.  Now Iowa is getting +3.5 to +4 based on the current perceptions of these teams.  Iowa was undefeated heading into last week when they lost at Michigan 10-3.  Their defense played lights out and the offense turned the ball over 4 times in the game after turning it over just once through the first 4 games.  PSU has crushed two lower tier Big Ten teams (Maryland and Purdue without their QB) and now Iowa is a home under of more than a FG?  Penn State was favored in this match up last year by -5.5 at home.  Now they are laying nearly the same number on the road despite losing their QB McSorley and RB Sanders who’ve both moved on to the NFL.  PSU won that game 30-24 in a game that Iowa outgained them 350 to 312.  The Nittany Lions are 5-0 but they’ve played a very easy schedule to date.  They have not played a rated team and they have not faced anyone in our top 45 power rankings.  The best team they played this year was Pitt who nearly beat them in Happy Valley.  The Panthers outgained PSU in that game but the Lions held on for a 17-10 win.  They’ve played only one road game this season and Iowa will be by far their toughest opponent this year and it’s on the road.  The Penn State offense has been rolling vs poor defenses as of late and they now face a Iowa defense that has allowed only 5 TD’s through 5 games.  The Hawkeyes have played the tougher slate with two teams in our top 25 power rankings losing a tight game @ Michigan and beating a very good Iowa State team on the road.  We expect veteran Iowa QB Stanley to bounce back after one of his worst performances of his career with 4 interceptions.  He now has 60 TD’s and 20 interceptions in his successful career.  This is a night game in Iowa City which is one of the toughest venues in the Big Ten.  Iowa has played 19 night games at Kinnick Stadium winning 13 of them.  Since October of 2000, Iowa has been a home underdog 20 times.  They are 13-5-2 ATS in those games and PSU comes into this game overvalued due to their easy slate.  Take the points as we like Iowa to win this game outright.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Army Black Knights (-) over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #191

Western Kentucky is in a flat spot here as they are off a huge revenge win over Old Dominion last week. That was a game that the Hilltoppers had circled on their calendar when the schedule came out. Now the Toppers have to try and stop Army's option attack and this is not something they see often. In fact, the Western Kentucky defensive coordinator (White) has never faced the option and, prior to becoming DC here, he was coaching special teams and defensive backs. This is why, even though Western Kentucky has solid numbers against the run this season, they face an entirely different and unique challenge this week that is likely to give them fits. Making the spot even tougher for the Hilltoppers is that they faced a very poor (and struggling!) offense in the form of the Monarchs last week.. Western Kentucky goes from that to now facing a Black Knights team off a home loss against an improved Tulane team. Keep in mind that Army also went toe to toe (only losing in OT) against the Wolverines at Michigan earlier this season. In Army West Point's other road game this season they won by 18 away from home! In fact, just playing the road team in Black Knights games this season would have led to a perfect 5-0 ATS mark and we see that mark improving to 6-0 ATS when this one is in the books! Army off a home loss blasts Western Kentucky off a revenging road win! The Hilltoppers rank in the bottom 20 in the nation for offensive efficiency as they average just 5.01 yards per play. The Black Knights defense entered last week having allowed just 14 points per game in regulation time in their first 4 games this season.. After a bad game against Tulane, they'll have no trouble bouncing back and shutting down a sputtering Western Kentucky offensive attack. Couple that with the success of their offensive attack with the option here and they pull away big in this game! Lay the small points with Army as a small road favorite in early evening action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple Owls (+) over Memphis Tigers, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #128

We love taking the defensive home underdog in this game.  Temple’s defense ranks 20th nationally in total defense.  They have held 4 of their 5 opponents to 17 points or less.  The Owls are 4-1 on the season and they have outgained every opponent yet they are getting nearly a TD at home in this game.  Memphis is undefeated and has a potent offense, however they have played a plethora of poor defenses this year.  In fact, they have played only ONE defense this season ranked higher than 73rd and that was Navy.  In that game Memphis was held to just 301 total yards and that game was in Memphis.  The Tigers were down 20-7 in the 2nd quarter but a 99 yard kickoff return turned the game around and Memphis got the win.  We expect their offense will struggle on Saturday.  The Tigers have actually been outgained in each of their last 2 games including last week @ UL Monroe.  In their win last week, the Tigers also had fewer first downs and faced a ULM defense ranked 126th nationally.  Now they turn around on the road again and face a top 20 defense.  That’s a tall task for a team that we feel comes in drastically overvalued.  Temple’s offense is averaging a very solid 445 YPG while allowing only 292 YPG and they have a +1.7 YPP differential.  ULM’s offense rolled up nearly 600 yards last week on the Memphis D so we expect the Owls to have plenty of success on that side of the ball.  Add that to a defense that can absolutely slow down Memphis and we have an upset brewing.  Temple was a home dog once already this year and they beat Maryland outright in that game.  In fact, the last 7 times the Owls have been a home dog of 12 points or less, they are a perfect 7-0 ATS.  As a home dog in general, Temple has covered 12 of their last 15.  Situationally this game also favors the host as Temple played on Thursday so 10 days to prepare while Memphis on the road for their 2nd straight game after playing @ Louisiana Monroe last Saturday.  We think Temple has a great shot to win this game outright and we’ll take the points.

ASA PLAY 9* ON NC State Wolfpack (-) over Syracuse Orange, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #108

The Orange have gotten the money in each of the past two meetings and did get the SU win last season at Syracuse by a double digit margin.  However, the Orange enter this game having lost 11 of their past 17 road games SU and the Wolfpack are 14-2 SU in their last 16 home games.  Given the small number posted on this game we like the strong odds here of an NC State SU win at home also equating to an ATS win at the betting window!  The Wolfpack seek revenge for last year's loss at Syracuse and the Orange are way down from the level of last season's team after losing their star QB.  Also, Syracuse has had a ton of trouble with their offensive line this season and that has led to the Orange QB taking far too many sacks.  That doesn't bode well for the road team in this match-up because NC State's defense has been piling up the sacks this season and they also are expected to get a top pass-rusher (Smith-Williams) back for this contest.  Per our computer math model, the Wolfpack should win this game by a double digit margin.  NC State is 8-1 ATS when they are off an ATS loss by a double digit margin and are facing a conference opponent that is off back to back SU wins.  That system fits here with the Orange on a 2-game winning streak (against weak competition by the way) in their past two games.  Also, in a weekday game, when Syracuse is an underdog of 13.5 points or less they are on an 0-9 ATS run!  Lay the small number here as we fully expect a dominating home win in this one Thursday.

ASA play on: Cleveland Browns +5 over San Francisco 49ers, Monday 8:20PM ET  - When we compare the key stats between these two teams we see some clear advantages on paper for San Francisco but we never just look at the numbers. We dig deeper. The Niners have one of the best rush defenses statistically in the NFL allowing just 3.4 yards per rush which ranks them 3rd. But they’ve played the Bengals (30th), Steelers (27th) and Bucs (24th) who are three of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL when it comes to yards per rush attempt. San Francisco will be tested here by a Browns offense that is 9th in RYPA at 4.9. That’s a big key for Cleveland as a strong running game takes pressure off QB Mayfield and opens up the play action pass. Sticking to that theme, the 49ers defense is ranked as one of the best in the NFL, but again, that’s a byproduct of the poor offenses they’ve faced.  The Browns on the other hand are starting to look like a team that was hyped to be a contender in the AFC this season. Cleveland has the 8th most efficient defense in the NFL and have faced two of the best offenses already in Baltimore and the L.A. Rams. Jimmy G and the 49ers are 3-0 on the season but the three wins have come against teams with a combined 3-12 SU record. San Francisco is off a bye but that hasn’t helped them in the past as they are on an 0-6 ATS streak in that scheduling situation. The Niners are 7-17 ATS their last 24 home games and the last time they covered as a home favorite was 2014 with Jim Harbaugh as the coach. In fact, the 49ers are 1-12-1 ATS as a home favorite their last fourteen. Cleveland on the other hand excels as an underdog with a 9-5 ATS record dating back to the start of last season. SF has benefited with 2.3 takeaways per game, but they’ve also turned in over 2.7 times per game which is worst in the NFL. Don’t trust a favorite that doesn’t take care of the football. PLAY ON BROWNS!

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

This line looks fishy to us.  The 0-4 Denver Broncos only getting 6.5 points?  Shouldn’t this be 7 or higher?  A few spots have +7 by the majority are at +6.5.  The Chargers were favored by 7 and 7.5 in the two meetings last year.  Looks like the oddsmakers are betting people to take the Chargers in this one.  We actually like this Denver team.  They are much better than their 0-4 record.  They’ve lost 2 games on FG’s as time expired to Chicago and Jacksonville.  They lost by 11 @ Green Bay in a game that should have been much closer as the yardage was dead even and the Packers scored on a 37 yard TD drive and 5 yard TD drive following Denver turnovers.  We’re not sold quite yet on the Chargers.  They are very close to being 1-3 with their only win coming vs the hapless Dolphins.  Their other win was at home in OT vs the Colts in a game where Indy kicker Adam Vinitieri missed 2 FG’s and an XP.  If not for that, the Colts win that game.  Even last week vs Miami, it was a 20-10 game entering the fourth quarter and they outgained the Fins by just 157 yards and they were +1.0 yard per play.  While that may look impressive, every other team that has played Miami has outgained them by at least 195 yards and were at least +2.8 YPP.  LA also has very little home field advantage and we wouldn’t be surprised to see just as many Bronco fans in the seats on Sunday.  The Chargers are 0-2 ATS at home this year and just 6-15 ATS their last 21 when playing host.  This is a division game so while Denver is 0-4, they’ve been very competitive and we expect them to go all out here.  The underdog is 12-4-2 ATS the last 16 meetings in this AFC West rivalry and we’ll call for another underdog cover.     

ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is a tough spot for the Jags as this will be their 3rd road game in 4 weeks including last week’s come from behind win @ Denver.  Last week Jacksonville fell behind 17-3 @ Denver and had to battle their way back to get the last second win with a FG as time expired.  The fact is, the Broncos ran 22 fewer offensive plays in that game and it still took a late FG to win the game for the Jaguars.  Denver outgained Jacksonville on a YPP basis 6.9 to 6.0 but the Bronco defense allowed RB Leonard Fournette to run wild racking up 225 yards on the ground.  Fournette had not topped 70 yards rushing in any game leading up to that performance so we see that as an outlier.  Everyone is talking about the impact that QB Minshew has had on the Jags but how about Carolina QB Allen getting some notice?  He gives the Panthers a much better chance to win compared to a banged up Cam Newton who couldn’t throw the ball down the field at all.  Allen is now 2-0 as a starter and has thrown for almost 500 yards and 4 TD’s with no interceptions.  His QBR is 65.8 which currently would rank him 6th in the NFL if he had enough snaps under his belt.  For comparison’s sake, Minshew’s QBR is 47.0 which is 18th in the NFL and while we feel he is a very solid rookie, the hype has become a little much.  Minshew also tweaked his knee late in last week’s game and is not 100% and was held out of practice until midweek.  His counterpart Allen is not just another guy thrown in under center, he was a 5* QB recruit that actually beat out Heisman winner and Arizona QB Kyler Murray at Texas A&M prompting Murray to transfer to Oklahoma.  He’s definitely not just another guy.  Another aspect of Carolina’s team that gets overlooked is their defense which is really good.  The Panthers currently rank 4th in the NFL in total defense allowing only 287 YPG and 2nd in YPP defense allowing just 4.3.  Since losing 30-27 to the Rams in the season opener, Carolina has not allowed more than 20 points.  They are very close to being 4-0 rather than 2-2 with close losses to the Rams & an emerging Tampa team.  We would argue that if Allen had been under center since day one, this team might be 4-0.  Add in the strong ATS stat that has Jacksonville just 4-20 ATS their last 24 games vs NFC team and this one looks solid.  Just a very good situation to grab a surging Carolina team at home in this one.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New England -15 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Horrible match up for the Skins.  It looks like Washington head coach Jay Gruden will be starting rookie Dwayne Haskins at QB or veteran Colt McCoy which is not ideal vs the Patriots top notch defense.  Haskins came in last week vs a bad Giant defense and threw 3 interceptions in their 24-3 loss and they were outgained by over 200 yards.  McCoy hasn’t taken a snap this season and has had very little practice time with his receivers due to his recovery from last year’s broken leg.  If this offense with Haskins at the helm could only score 3 points vs a Giant defense that had allowed at least 28 points in every other game, what are they going to do against a New England defense that has allowed one TD the ENTIRE season.  While this line is obviously high, it’s nothing new to the Patriots who have now been favored by more than 14 points three times this season.  They controlled the other two games they were tabbed big favorites vs Miami & NY Jets outscoring them by a combined 73-14 and we’d put Washington in that terrible team category at the moment.  There are also rumblings of Gruden being fired as early as next week so there are plenty of distractions to go along with this 0-4 team.  Expect New England to play very well as they are coming off a poor outing.  They did beat Buffalo 16-10 but they were outgained drastically by the Bills and Tom Brady had his worst QB rating in 13 years in that game.  The Redskin defense had allowed 30 or more points in every game until the Giants scored 24 last week.  The Patriots coming off a poor offensive showing should have a field day against this defense on Sunday.  They shouldn’t have to score much to get this cover either.  We don’t anticipate Washington doing much of anything offensively so New England scoring 24 or more will probably get this done.  Lay it with the Patriots.   Our MATH MODEL projects a Patriot 35-10 win giving us an easy cover.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Stanford Cardinal (+) over Washington Huskies, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #352

The home team has dominated this series ATS in recent years with the host covering 6 of the last 8 meetings. The Cardinal have struggled at times this season but getting the win at Oregon State is a boost for this team and they now come home where their defense has played much better this season. Granted one of the games was hosting Northwestern but the other home game was against Oregon and the Cardinal allowed an average of only 14 points and 265 yards per game! Washington is a strong program and will be a major test for Stanford but, per our computer math model, this game lands with a Huskies win somewhere in a range of 7 to 10 points...not the 17 point range that many are expecting! As noted above, the Cardinal are a different team when they are at home and they've proven that through the years as they are known for stepping up their game in spots like this. In fact, 6 of the last 7 times that Stanford has hosted a team that is ranked in the top 25, the Cardinal have gotten the cash! That is an 86% cover rate! Bit of a tough scheduling spot here for the Huskies as they are on the road for the 2nd time in 3 weeks and have another road game (at 3-1 Arizona). As for the Cardinal, they have a bye on deck and are a hungry home pup looking to make amends for losing their prior home game (versus the Ducks). Grab the big points with Stanford as a home dog in late night action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Ole Miss Rebels (-) over Vanderbilt Commodores, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #376

Ole Miss is much better than their 2-3 record in our opinion. Their losses have come at the hands of Memphis, Cal, and Alabama who have a combined record of 13-1. Their losses to Cal and Memphis were one possession games and their loss @ Bama last Saturday wasn’t nearly as bad as the 59-31 score might indicate. One of Bama’s TD’s was a blocked punt return for TD and Ole Miss actually dominated this game on the ground rushing for 280 yards while holding the Tide to 157 yards rushing. To put that in perspective the last time the Tide allowed 280 or more yards rushing in a game was January 1st, 2015 vs Ohio State in the Playoffs and the Buckeyes had 281 yards rushing in that game. That was 63 games ago. Very impressive by the Ole Miss offense despite the loss. Now they take a big step down facing a Vandy defense that allows 5.2 YPC on the season and 7.5 yards per play overall. After getting outrushed by Memphis in the season opener, Ole Miss has now outrushed 4 straight opponents by 570 yards including two very good defenses in Bama & Cal. Ole Miss has 2 capable QB’s here but it looks like they will go with John Rhys Plumlee who made the first start of his career last year @ Alabama and was fazed in the least. Plumlee accounted for 223 total yards last week and 2 TD’s including over 100 yards rushing. He brings a dual threat ability that we feel the Commodores will struggle with. If previous starter Matt Corral is healthy (sat out last week with injury) and he gets time we’re fine with that as well as he has passed for 844 yards and 4 TD’s on the season. Two solid options and if both play that could cause problems for Vandy as well. The Commodores are 1-3 (all losses by at least 24 points) with their only win coming at home last Saturday over a MAC team beating Northern Illinois 24-18. Vandy was outgained in that game just as they have been in every game so far this season. In their lone win, NIU had the ball in Vandy territory moving the ball with a chance to win with under 4:00 minutes remaining so this team could easily be 0-4. This is also a game the Rebels have had circled on their calendar and now coming off back to back losses to Cal & Bama, we expect a huge effort. Last year Ole Miss traveled to Vanderbilt in the 2nd to last game of the year as a small underdog. It was a game they really needed for bowl eligibility and they blew it. The Rebs dominated the stats winning total yards 578 to 387 only to lose in OT. That game basically kept them at home for the holidays (no bowl game) and they’ve been waiting on this rematch. Ole Miss has been very good at creating big plays on offense this year with the 9th most 20+ yard plays in FBS this season. That’s been a huge problem for the Vanderbilt defense as they’ve allowed more 20+ yard plays than any other team in the nation. On the other side, Vandy’s offense will struggle to run the ball against a Mississippi defense that allows only 3.3 YPC putting a lot of pressure on QB Neal who hasn’t been great this year. This game really sets up nicely for a double digit Ole Miss win at home.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) over Old Dominion Monarchs, Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #383

Revenge can be an over-used angle if one is not careful. However, there are certain cases of revenge that are at another level of strength. Those are the ones you want to focus in on and that is the type of situation we have here. Western Kentucky, a team that returned 15 starters this season (including 9 on offense), most certainly had this game circled on their schedule after what happened last season. The Hilltoppers, at home no less, saw an astonishing finish last October against Old Dominion. The Toppers led the game by 7 with less than a minute to go but the Monarchs (with no timeouts too!) managed to tie it on a very late TD and then the real craziness began! This was a lead-up to one of the most improbable results that you will ever see as all this came with no time left on the clock in regulation and a field goal attempt by Western Kentucky! The regulation was extended (multiple times) by the fact that a game can not end on a defensive penalty. Long story short, the Monarchs walked away with a highly improbable 3-point win that stunned Western Kentucky as ODU ended up being the team getting a field goal attempt of their own in improbable fashion. As for this year's rematch, the Hilltoppers returned a lot of talent from last year's team (particularly on offense) and the same can not be said for the Monarchs as they returned a total (offense and defense!) of just 6 starters. While both teams have played fairly well on defense this season, they have struggled on offense. However, the Hilltoppers appear much closer to turning that around and they have the returning personnel to do it. Conversely, the Monarchs offense is struggling with a weak offensive line giving up far too many sacks and this has QB Stone Smartt having to rush plays and make mistakes. He has 1 passing TD but 4 interceptions and Western Kentucky's defense is fully capable of forcing mistakes as they did in last week's win over UAB with 4 picks! The Monarchs were favored and yet lost outright to East Carolina last week. Old Dominion is 1-3 this season with their only win (over Norfolk St) coming by just 3 points even though they were favored by 25 points. The Hilltoppers have covered 6 of 7 times when they face a team with a losing record that is off an outright upset loss as a favorite. That system fits here and this is a case of two teams heading opposite directions. Factoring that in along with the revenge coupled with a small line make it a "must play" spot for us! Lay the small points with Western Kentucky on the road in early evening action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Iowa State Cyclones (-) over TCU Horned Frogs, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #374

On the surface, it may look like Iowa State is off a disheartening loss since they lost on a late field goal with less than a minute left at Baylor last week. However, the Cyclones actually bring in momentum (and hunger for a win) after that loss because the key take-away for Iowa State from that game was that they rallied from a 20-0 fourth quarter deficit to take a 21-20 lead before falling just short because of the late field goal. Keep in mind, that big comeback took place on the road too! They are getting strong QB play as Purdy has completed about 70% of his passes and has thrown 8 TDs against only 2 INTs on the season. Now a game the Cyclones are fully focused on at home this week and a situation that is not a good one for TCU. . While Iowa State has revenge from losing a tight game to the Horned Frogs last season, TCU is off a dominating revenge win at Kansas last week. Yes the Frogs had actually lost to the Jayhawks last season. Not only was TCU fired up for revenge in that game last week, they also were anxious to release their frustration on Kansas after a disappointing loss the prior week in the Frogs rivalry game with SMU. The point is that TCU put a lot of energy, physical and mental, into last week's game and now they are on the road and have a bye week on deck.. This is the type of scenario - we have seen this many times in the past - that ends up being a flat spot for a team. The Horned Frogs try to coast into their bye week and get blasted in the process. Iowa State is "only" 2-2 SU on the season but their other loss was only by a single point against rival Iowa and they truly outplayed the Hawkeyes in that game but were done in by turnovers. The point is that the Cyclones are within just a few points of being a perfect 4-0 SU on the season and, per our computer math model, they are being severely undervalued here by the betting markets. While none of the Cyclones first 4 opponents this season had a losing record last season, the combined record of the Horned Frogs first four opponents was 16-32 last season. This is the first time that TCU has been a dog this season (but a small dog at that) and we're going to step in and take advantage while the markets still have them over-valued. Lay the points with Iowa State as a small home favorite in very early afternoon action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #356

We’re getting tremendous line value with this play on Michigan. The line in late summer, before the college football season started, came out on this game at Michigan -14. Now we realize the Wolverines have not lived up to their pre-season hype and they were a bit overvalued coming into the year, but now we feel the opposite is true. Getting them at home at -3.5 is a bargain in our opinion. We also feel that Iowa is now the overvalued team coming into this game with a 4-0 record. That sets this up perfectly to grab the Wolverines at home. These teams have played 2 common opponents at home (Rutgers & Middle Tennessee State) and both won easily. Let’s look strictly at the line in those 2 games so you can get a feel for the value we have with Michigan here. The Wolverines were favored by 36 points vs MTSU while Iowa was favored by 23. That tells us on a neutral field the oddsmakers felt Michigan would be a 13 point favorite. Michigan just played Rutgers last weekend and they were a 28 point favorite. Iowa played the Knights a few weeks ago and were laying 18. That tells us Michigan was 10-points better than Iowa on a neutral field. So if we split the difference were looking at Michigan -11.5 on a neutral. Even if we take the lower difference and then adjust it down a few points from there, at worst Michigan would be favored by 8 or 9 on a neutral field vs Iowa. You see where we are going here with the line value. People have had too big of an overreaction to the way Michigan lost @ Wisconsin a few weeks ago. We watched that entire game in person and then again on tape. It was just one of those games where Wisky played well, but also caught some breaks (4 Michigan turnovers) to get a big lead which changed Michigan’s entire game plan. Things spiraled out of control from there. The Wolverines are much better than they played in that game, yet this line doesn’t reflect that. Iowa is 4-0 on the season but they have played one team thus far with a pulse and that was Iowa State. It was a game the Hawkeyes were outgained by more than 100 yards, trailed for most of the game but rallied for an 18-17 win. In that game ISU averaged 7.7 yards per play while the Hawkeyes averaged 4.4 YPP. Iowa won the turnover battle 2 to 0 and they were very lucky to win. The other teams they’ve played this year have a combined record of 2-9 this year vs other FBS teams. They also have yet to leave the state of Iowa. In last week’s game vs Rutgers head coach Jim Harbaugh moved offensive coordinator Josh Gattis from the pressbox to the sidelines as he felt more face to face discussion with Gattis and his QB’s would help. It seemed to do so as QB Patterson had his best game of the year. Granted it was vs Rutgers but we feel this move will help the offense moving forward. Defensively we expect an extremely motivated Michigan unit after they were pushed around a few weeks ago by Wisconsin and have heard about it ever since. Iowa will bring a similar gameplan although they are not on the same level as Wisconsin at this point and the Wolverines are at home for this one rather than on the road. They won’t be caught off guard here. We like the match up for Michigan and feel Iowa is overrated right now. but most of all we love the value with this number as we discussed earlier. Michigan gets the win and cover at home.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Denver -2.5 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

This is obviously an absolute must win for the Broncos.  They are 0-3 o the season but they are definitely better than that record.  They have outgained their opponents on the year by an average of 34 YPG and they are +12 first downs on the year.  The Jags are 1-2 on the season, they are getting outgained by 31 YPG.  Their only win over Tennessee they were -48 total yards, -9 first downs and -9:00 time of possession.  Jacksonville QB Gardner Minshew has gotten a lot of publicity since taking over at QB but the fact is he’s still a rookie playing in a very tough venue in Denver.  Not only that, he’s facing one of the top defensive minds in the game in Denver head coach Vic Fangio.  We expect Minshew to struggle in this game.  In his only other road start this season, Minshew led the Jaguars to just 12 points @ Houston.  It’s supposed to be very windy in Denver on Sunday so this one could come down to the running game which definitely favors the Broncos.  The Jaguars average just 90 YPG and they don’t run it very often (19 carries per game).  Their offensive line ranks 28th in the NFL in run blocking (per Football Outsiders).  Denver, on the other hand, carries the ball 28 times per game and their offensive line ranks 9th in the NFL in run blocking.  They have 2 very solid backs with Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman who returns from injury in this one.  Denver has been very successful at home early in the season with a 14-2 SU record their last 16 September games.  We like Denver to win by more than a FG here.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Seattle -5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

We love this spot for the Seahawks.  First they are coming off a loss vs New Orleans last week in a game they outgained the Saints by 250 yards!  QB Russell Wilson has been nearly unbeatable the game following a SU loss as a favorite going 19-2 SU and 14-5-2 ATS.  Arizona comes in with an 0-2-1 record and if it weren’t for a remarkable late game surge to tie Detroit, they’d be 0-3.  They’ve already been outgained in every game by a total of 345 yards on the season.  Last week the Arizona defense was shredded for 38 points by Carolina back up QB Allen (4 TD’s) and now they face Russell Wilson who had over 400 yards passing vs the Saints last Sunday.  We look for Seattle to have a big day on offense.   We feel we have a fairly large advantage on both sides of the ball along with the situation advantage.  On top of that, Seattle has a HUGE coaching edge here.  With this number under a TD we’ll take Seattle.

NOTE: If you do not have access to the First Half Line then make a Full Game Wager on this one. Our recommendation is for a First Half Wager per the analysis here: ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) on FIRST HALF LINE over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #195

Ohio State continues to come out and play great in the first half. Many of their games they lead by so much at half they take their foot off the gas in the 2nd half. They have outscored their 4 opponents 135-18 in the first half this season. On the year, the Buckeyes have had 32 first half offensive possessions and scored TD’s on 19 of those (60%). We see no way this poor Nebraska defense has any chance of slowing down the Bucks. The Huskers looked OK vs South Alabama (allowed 21 points) and Northern Illinois (allowed 8 points), however those 2 teams are ranked 118th and 110th respectively in total offense. Colorado lit them up for 34 points & Illinois scored 28 last week and those two teams are ranked 56th and 89th in total offense. You get where we are going here. OSU will be, by far, the best offense they have faced this season. They have scored 51 on Indiana (30 in the first half) and IU has allowed a total of 27 points in their other 3 games. They scored 42 (28 at half) on a very good Cincinnati defense that is allowing 13.5 PPG in their other games this season. Last week they put it all together and rolled up 76 points (49 at half) vs Miami (Oh). Can Nebraska keep up here? We don’t think so especially in the first half. After an off year in 2018, the OSU defense ranks 2nd nationally behind only Wisconsin allowing 222 YPG and they’ve only given up 36 total points in 4 games on the season. We see Ohio State getting a big lead early here and we’ll lay the points (-9.5 at time of publishing this) in the first half Saturday evening.

ASA PLAY ON 9* South Florida Bulls (+) over SMU Mustangs, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #122

SMU is off of an upset win over rival TCU last week as they beat the Horned Frogs outright as an 8 point underdog in the Iron Skillet rivalry. Not only was that a huge win for the Mustangs, this is also the first time in 35 years that the Ponies have opened up a season with 4 straight wins. There is a good chance that perfect start comes to an end here! Traveling to the heat and humidity of South Florida after a grueling and emotionally draining 41-38 win over a fierce rival is certainly not an ideal situation. Magnifying the situational edge for the Bulls here is that they are coming off a bye week. South Florida has covered 4 of 5 (and all 5 victories were SU wins) the last 5 times they have been off a bye week. Also, the past 4 seasons the Bulls are 6-1 ATS when they are at home and their prior game was also at home. Even though SMU's game last week was in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, the fact is that it was a road game as it was at TCU. Now on the road again it is not a good spot for SMU. When the Mustangs are favored in the 2nd of back to back road games, as they are here, they have covered just once the past 8 times! Another edge here in the myriad of edges favoring USF in this match-up is the fact that USF has perennial doormat UConn on deck. As for SMU, the Mustangs have a home date with Tulsa on deck. That is the same Golden Hurricane team that only won 5 games the past two seasons but one of their 3 wins last season was the one that managed to upset Southern Methodist in the season finale. That SMU defeat prevented the Mustangs from going to a bowl in Sonny Dykes first season at the helm. Grab the big points with South Florida as a home dog in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Baylor Bears (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #130

The Cyclones won last year's match-up but that was at Iowa State and the Bears actually outgained them by 150 yards in that game! This year it is Baylor that is the host and the Bears have a big edge here in that they have not even had to leave their home state yet for a game. For the Cyclones, they are playing their first road game of the season. Iowa State is off a huge win last week but that was against UL Monroe. Entering that game Iowa State was averaging just 15 points per game (not including overtime) in their first two games of the season. Baylor is off of what looks like a tight win last week against Rice but the Bears did have a 21-3 halftime edge in that game. Also, they outgained the Owls by nearly 200 yards in the victory and the fact is Rice has been a scrappier team this season as they are not laying down for opponents like they did last season. Baylor has covered 7 of the last 9 times they have been a home dog. The Bears have also covered 7 straight times when they are a coming off a non-conference game and now facing a conference opponent. This is the Big 12 opener for both teams. While Baylor plays with revenge this week, Iowa State has their first Big 12 revenge game next week hosting TCU. The Cyclones have failed to cover 6 of 7 times when they have the Horned Frogs on deck. Grab the points with Baylor as a home dog in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* BYU Cougars (-) over Toledo Rcokets, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #131

The Cougars have played one of, if not the, toughest schedule in the nation this year to prepare them for this game. They are 2-2 and they’ve already faced four Power 5 schools (USC, Utah, Washington, and Tennessee). The first 3 are arguably the best 3 or certainly in the top 4 teams in the Pac 12. Last week we were on Washington who got the easy win vs BYU but we were actually impressed again with the Cougs. They put up 356 yards on a very good Washington defense and QB Wilson threw for 277 yards and looked sharp. We expect them to look very good against a Toledo defense that was shelled for almost 700 yards last week @ Colorado State. The Rockets were outgained by 175 yards in that game and remarkably pulled off the win 41-35. Not overly impressive vs a CSU team that came in 0-2 vs FBS teams getting outscored 107-65 in those 2 games (they did beat Western Illinois – FCS team). The Rockets have played only one team with a pulse and lost to Kentucky, a lower tier SEC team, by 14 points. Another advantage in our opinion is that BYU has a bye on deck – no look ahead game – while Toledo has a huge MAC rivalry game on deck with Western Michigan who is considered by many the other top team in the MAC West. BYU is 15-7 ATS their last 22 games and they’ve proven they can get it done on the road topping the likes of Wisconsin, Arizona, and Tennessee since the start of last season. We’ll lay this small number with the better team taking a step down in competition level.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke Blue Devils (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #105

Last season these teams also met in Duke's ACC opener. At the time the Blue Devils were rolling along with a 4-0 start to the season and had moved into the Top 25 for the first time. That came to an abrupt halt when, after 4 straight wins by an average victory of margin of 22.3 points per game, Duke got upended as a 7 point home favorite and lost by 17 points to Virginia Tech. The fact is that the Hokies have been a "thorn in the side" of David Cutcliffe and the Blue Devils and there is nothing sweeter than getting revenge in "their house" in a weeknight primetime game with the ESPN cameras rolling. Duke opened this season getting a beatdown at the hands of Alabama - just as most teams do when they face the Crimson Tide - but the Blue Devils responded with back to back dominating wins over much softer competition. The Hokies have been much less impressive as they opened the season losing at Boston College and Virginia Tech was favored in that game. The Hokies then followed that up with a couple of victories against lesser competition but they were very unimpressive in those games. Virginia Tech struggled against both Old Dominion and Furman in non-covering wins. The Hokies actually trailed Furman 14 to 3 at the half two weeks ago! Duke QB Quentin Harris is a senior and has run the ball well in addition to putting up solid numbers through the air. Harris will take advantage of a Virginia Tech defense that fell off drastically last year (31 ppg and 439 ypg). Early indications this season are that the Hokies defensive struggles will continue in conference play as Boston College had 432 yards against Virginia Tech in the season opener (and conference opener) for the Hokies. In terms of Virginia Tech's history against Duke (with David Cutcliffe as the Blue Devils head coach), the dog has covered 8 of the last 11 meetings between these teams. Also, both teams enter off a bye week but it is the Blue Devils that have covered 5 in a row ATS when they are an underdog coming off a bye. Additionally, when Duke is off a non-conference game and on the road against a conference foe, the Blue Devils have covered 9 of the last 10 times. This is a triple revenge spot for Cutcliffe's team and they are undervalued considering how poorly Virginia Tech has played on both sides of the ball this season. Grab the points with Duke as a road dog in early evening action Friday.

ASA 10* NFL TOP PLAY ON Philadelphia +4.5 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

This is simply a huge game for the Eagles.  They are currently 1-2 on the season and can’t afford to drop to 1-3 and still feel they have a decent shot at the playoffs with Dallas currently rolling through the NFC East.  Their 2 losses came by 4 points @ Atlanta and 3-points vs Detroit so they are fairly close to being 2-1 or even 3-0.  On their final possession last week they had the ball in Detroit territory but were unable to get into FG position for the tie.  At Atlanta they had the ball inside the Falcon 20-yard line in their final possession but came up short on 4th down.  They’ve definitely had their chances.  If tonight’s game goes as we expect, it will be another very close game and we’re getting a full +4 to +4.5 points which would have covered or at worst pushed Philly’s first 2 losses.  Green Bay is 3-0 but they have been outgained in every game and they are getting outgained by an average of 42 YPG.  They have been the beneficiary of a +6 turnover ratio after just 3 games (1st in the NFL).  While their defense is vastly improved it’s not like we are talking about a top 5 defense right now.  As good as they’ve been, they are still ranked only 13th in total defense.  It’s the turnovers they’ve created that are the difference so far this year and we feel that simply doesn’t continue (+2 turnovers per game).  The offensive numbers have been poor.  They are 3-0 despite scoring only 19 PPG (23rd in the NFL).  They are ranked 28th in total offense and 28th in yards per play.  The most concerning offensive stat in our opinion is their 3rd down conversion rate is just 25% ahead of only Miami & NY Jets.   That ends offensive possessions early and is obviously a drive killer.  Philly, on the other hand, is at 56% rate on 3rd down which 2nd in the NFL only behind Dallas.  Right now we feel the Eagles are undervalued and Green Bay is overvalued right now.  Take the points with Philadelphia.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Denver +8.5 over Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Packers are 2-0 however we’re not sure they deserve to be a TD+ favorite in this spot.  Their first two wins have come by 7 & 5 over division rivals Bears & Vikings.  Now playing an AFC team with a Thursday night meeting vs Philadelphia on deck in not an ideal situation for Green Bay.  The Packer offense is still a work in progress and we don’t see them pulling away from anyone right now.  They’ve been outgained by 127 yards in their 2 games.  They were very fortunate in last week’s win over the Vikings as the Minnesota offense tallied an impressive 7.0 yards per play while the Packers only put up 4.9 YPP.  This is a huge game for Denver as they cannot afford to drop to 0-3.  Unlike the Packers, the Broncos have outgained each of their first two opponents including Chicago last week (+99 yards for Denver).  While Denver’s offense seems to be in question, they put up 273 yards on 4.9 YPP and 21 first downs in their 1-point loss to Chicago last week.  Compare that to Green Bay’s offense that tallied just 213 total yards on 3.7 YPP and only 13 first downs vs the same Chicago defense a week earlier.  Where this total sits at 43 the expected final score is Green Bay 25, Denver 17 or so.  With Packer offense sputtering early in the year, we don’t expect them to light up a very solid Denver defense.  The Broncos have allowed just 5 of their last 23 opponents to top 24 points and we don’t expect Green Bay to do so on Sunday.  Tough to lay over a TD with GB’s sputtering offense vs a team that is in a do or die spot.  Take the points with Denver.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis (pick-em) over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line opened with Indy -3 which is where we thought it should be.  The public remains enamored with Atlanta as they get bet hard on a regular basis.  That has dropped this line down to -1 and now we’ll jump on the Colts.  We were on Atlanta last week as a home dog which was an entirely different situation at home off a loss @ Minnesota.  The Falcons picked up that home win over the Eagles and now they go on the road vs an AFC team playing their home opener.  While bettors still love the Falcons, the fact it since their Super Bowl appearance in 2016, the Bird have a SU record of just 18-16.  Indy comes in 1-1 having taken a very good Charger team to OT in the opener (loss) and then upsetting Tennessee on the road last Sunday.  While this team lost Andrew Luck at QB, his replacement Jacoby Brissett is more than capable especially with a very good running game and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  Brissett is completing 69% of his passes with 5 TD’s and just 1 interception on the season.  That Indy running game is averaging 185 YPG (2nd in the NFL) and they are facing a Falcon defense that was gashed for 172 yards in their only road game @ Minnesota.  The knew they could control the game on the ground (Minny won 28-12) so much so that they only attempted 10 passes the entire game.  The Falcons are 1-8 ATS their last 9 as road underdogs and with the Colts now just having to win at home, we’ll grab them.

ASA 8* NFL PLAY ON Cincinnati +7 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We were on Cincy last week and they were embarrassed at home losing 41-17 vs the Niners.  We expect them to bounce back and play very well this weekend as NFL teams that get beat by 20+ points and are underdogs the following week cover 56% of the time long term.  Let’s not forget that the Bengals played very well in their season opener taking Seattle to the wire on the road before losing 21-20.  The outgained the Seahawks by 197 yards in that game!  Now sitting at 0-2, the Bengals know they cannot afford another loss so expect an all out effort here.  Buffalo is solid but now they’ve become overvalued in our opinion.  We were on the Bills in week one as a +2.5 dog @ the Jets and they won 17-16.  Last week they played the hapless Giants winning 28-14 but they were only +18 in total yardage in that game.  Now after facing an underdog role vs the Jets, basically a pick-em spot (-1 at some spots) vs the Giants, they are now laying nearly a full TD vs the Bengals?  That’s an overreaction.  On top of that, Buffalo hosts AFC East rival New England next so they could be peaking ahead here.  Bills QB Josh Allen is still very inexperienced and not overly consistent.  Tough to lay nearly a TD with a QB that has those traits.  While Bengal QB Dalton is no superstar, he is a veteran and seems to be adapting well to new head coach Zac Taylor’s offensive system very well with 729 yards and 4 TD’s in his 2 games.  Historically, Buffalo has been a down franchise for years.  They are simply not used to winning streaks.  In fact, the last 16 times the Bills have had a chance at a 3-game winning streak, they are just 3-13 SU in those games.  The look ahead line on this game before last weekend’s games was Buffalo -3.5 and a few -4.  We won’t overreact to what happened last week and we take the value with Cincinnati here.  The Bengals keep this close and have a shot to pull the upset.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Utah State Aggies (-) over San Diego State Aztecs, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #399

Certainly San Diego State holds a large edge in this series as they have won 10 straight meetings. However, there have only been two recent meetings as Mountain West Conference foes and yet the Aztecs did dominate those as well as San Diego State won the two by an average margin of 27.5 points per victory! That said, it may have seemed surprising to see the Aggies open up as the favorite in this one, particularly since this game is at San Diego State. The fact is that this is certainly no "mistake" by the odds makers. The Aztecs offense is struggling badly this season as they are attempting to switch to a spread attack and it has not gone well. Typically a transition year can be painful and that is evident with what the San Diego State offense has displayed to this point. The Aztecs offense has averaged only 20 points per game this season. This may not sound so bad until you consider they have faced an FCS school (Weber State) as well as a New Mexico State team that has averaged 3 wins per season the past TEN years and a UCLA team that is off to a horrific start this season. That being said, San Diego State is going to find the going particularly tough against a Utah State team that averaged 47 points per game last season while allowing just 22 points a game! The Aggies came up just short at Wake Forest to open the season but the Demon Deacons look better this season than any of the 3 teams San Diego State has faced. Also, Utah State then got to enjoy a blowout win over an FCS school the next week and then a bye week last week. To say the least, the Aggies are VERY prepared as well as rested for their Mountain West opener against a team that has had their number. It is now payback time and the Aggies offense ranks in the Top 20 in the nation for offensive efficiency with 6.69 yards per play so far this season. This will be, by far, the toughest test that the Aztecs defense has faced this season and, per our computer math model, this one will turn into a road rout decided by a double digit margin. The Aztecs sputtering offense simply won't be able to keep up against a highly motivated and talented Aggies team that won 11 games last season and finally gets their first shot at San Diego States since the 2016 season. Lay the short number with Utah State in late night action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over BYU Cougars, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #349

The Cougars are at home in this game and that is truly where their advantages begin and end. The Huskies are the better team all over the field and, from a situation standpoint, this is a fantastic spot for fading BYU. The Cougars have had one of the toughest schedules in the nation to open up this season. For Brigham Young, this will be their 4th straight game against a Power 5 Conference opponent. The Cougars suffered a home loss against Utah in BYU's home opener. Then they went on the road and won a dramatic multiple-OT game at Tennessee. The Cougars then came home and won another OT game against Southern Cal. To summarize, BYU has already played an SEC team and a pair of Pac-12 teams and now faces another Pac-12 team this week. Coming off back to back OT games (both wins) and truly getting dominated in their lone loss, we feel it all catches up with the Cougars here. BYU is facing a Washington team that blasted them 35 to 7 last season and the scoreboard was no fluke as the Huskies outgained the Cougars 474 to 194 in that game! While Brigham Young entered this season with a total of just 10 regular season wins the past two seasons combined, Washington entered this season having notched at least 10 regular season wins in each of the past three seasons! Last week the Huskies blasted Hawaii and were at home. In BYU's win last week they beat a USC team that started a back-up quarterback making his first ever road start because of the season-ending injury to JT Daniels. Certainly the Cougars face a much tougher test this week as they now face a Washington offense led by QB Jacob Eason (a transfer from SEC powerhouse Georgia). He is already averaging over 250 passing yards per game with 7 TDs against just 1 INT in the first 3 games. If you take away the OT scoring, BYU is averaging only 18.3 points per game in regulation this season. The Cougars won't be able to keep up with a Huskies team that already "learned their lesson" early this season with a 20-19 loss to Cal as a 2-TD favorite two weeks ago. Having already been tripped up once early this season (but scoring 49.5 points per game in their other two games) we look for a dominating effort from the road team in this one. Lay it with Washington in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY 7* ON Run Line: New York Yankees (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 1:05 PM ET

Even on the run line in this match-up the Yankees are still in the -160 price range but New York is well worth the investment here.  The biggest upset on the board yesterday was the Blue Jays knocking off the Yankees and it is now payback time today!  The Yankees are starting James Paxton and he is an incredible 9-0 his last 9 starts.  In these 9 outings he has compiled a 2.50 ERA and the Yankees have won 8 of the 9 games by a margin of 2 or more runs.  That is why we're very comfortable with the run line here because, in fact, the average margin of victory in these 9 consecutive wins is a very impressive SIX runs per game.  The Yankees aren't just winning with Paxton on the mound, they are annihilating the opposition.  That should continue here as the New York lineup gets another shot at Blue Jays rookie TJ Zeuch.  He has a 1.61 WHIP in his 3 appearances (1 start) and the Yankees will make him pay for his continued problem with issuing too many walks.  This will be the first time Zeuch is facing an MLB opponent for a 2nd time and this type of situation is generally very tough on a rookie hurler.  We look for that to be the case again here and, per our computer math model, the Yankees win this on in a home blowout!  Bet the Yankees -1.5 runs in early afternoon action Saturday

ASA PLAY ON 9* Utah Utes (-) over USC Trojans, Friday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #305

This one sets up nicely for the Utes who basically had a bye last week (beat Idaho State 31-0) while USC was in BYU losing 30-27 in overtime. Both of these teams played @ BYU and while USC lost in OT, Utah beat the Cougars 30-12. Utah has a balanced offense with a veteran QB, senior Tyler Huntley. He has been through the Pac 12 road wars and knows how to win. The Utes have won 13 of the last 16 games that Huntley has been the starting QB. He’s completing nearly 78% of his passes this year with no turnovers. USC will start true freshman Kedon Slovis again at QB. He takes over for JT Daniels who was injured in the season opener. He played very well in his first start vs Stanford which doesn’t look quite as good as it did at the time as the Cardinal have already turned into a trainwreck getting blow out in their last 2 games. Last week, Slovis came back down to earth throwing 3 interceptions in their loss @ BYU. Now he will face the best defense he’s played thus far and one of the top secondary in the nation. We expect him to turn the ball over again here which will give Utah a nice advantage. USC will struggle to run the ball vs a defense that is allowing just 65 YPG on the ground this year. The Utes finished 5th nationally in rush defense last year so their early season numbers are no fluke. The lack of a running game will put more pressure on the true freshman QB to win the game. We think that’s too much to ask. We also have a nice coaching advantage here with Kyle Whittingham easily over Clay Helton in our opinion. How does USC do vs teams when they are underdogs? Terrible. They are just 2-13 ATS and 1-14 SU their last 15 games as an underdog dating back to Helton’s early days here. That tells us the Helton & USC can beat the teams they are supposed to but when they are asked to step up and pull an upset, they can’t. Take Utah here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Philadelphia Phillies, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET

Great set up here as both teams were off yesterday and the Braves still have plenty to play for while the Phillies are down and out.  Philadelphia has seen their wild card playoff chances slip away due to a late season slump while the Braves are still looking to officially lock up the NL East.  Also, Atlanta still has home field motivation as well as they battle with the Dodgers for the #1 spot in the NL.  Of course the above, plus a big pitching edge, is why the Braves are priced as a big favorite here.  We'll avoid the big price on the money line by making use of the run line in this match-up.  Atlanta is available for a play here without juice if we lay the 1.5 runs and there is certainly likelihood of a home blowout here.  The Phillies are 6-15 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175.  The Braves are off a shutout loss on Sunday and Atlanta is 18-8 this season after scoring 2 runs or less in their prior game.  Also, Philadelphia is 0-6 in the last 6 starts Vince Velasquez has made against the Braves.  Velasquez has gone 0-5 in those 6 games and has compiled an 8.46 ERA in those 6 outings!  This is not outdated history either.  All 6 of these starts have come since the start of last season.  Also, Velasquez enters this start struggling overall as he has a 5.48 ERA in the 14 starts he has made since rejoining the rotation.  Dallas Keuchel gets the start for the Braves here and he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in all 4 of the starts he has made against the Phillies in his career and that includes a pair of outings this season as well.  Additionally, Keuchel enters this start in top current form as he has an 0.97 ERA in his last six starts overall.  21 of the Phillies 29 losses since the All Star break have come by a margin of 2 or more runs.  29 of the Braves 39 wins since the All Star break have come by a margin of 2 or more runs.  Lay it as Atlanta bounces back from Sunday's shutout loss!  Bet the Braves -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday