#128 ASA TOP PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3 over California, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Just a terrible situational spot for the Golden Bears. This team will have a hard time getting up off the mat after blowing a huge lead at home vs Miami last week. Cal led the Canes by 20 points with just over 10 minutes remaining in game last Saturday and they lost 39-38. Miami scored 3 TD’s in the final 10:28 to get the 1 point win including the game winner with 28 seconds remaining. Now they have to make the long 2500 mile trip to Pittsburgh which will be the Bears 3rd trip to the east time zone since Sept 7th. That means this Cal team will have already traveled almost 13,000 miles in the last 5 weeks when they land in Pittsburgh for this game. Their devastating home loss vs Miami on Saturday actually wasn’t as close as the score would indicate. How the Bears pulled out to a 20 point lead is tough to comprehend as they were outgained by 205 total yards and had 18 fewer first downs. The Canes held a 15 minute time of possession edge and ran 86 offensive snaps which should lead the Cal defense running out of gas in this game, especially as the game wears on. While the Bears were blowing a huge lead at home, Pitt went into North Carolina and won 34-24 outgaining the Heels by over 100 yards. They won by 10 despite the Tar Heels scoring on an 86 yard pick 6 which was potentially a 14 point turnaround with Pitt going into score. The Panthers are now 5-0 with solid wins over UNC, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. It’s not a fluke the Panthers are undefeated as their stats have been dominant. On the season they are +20 PPG, +152 YPG, +2.3 YPP, and +2.9 yards per rush. Cal is 3-2 on the season and in those stats they are +8 PPG, +28 YPG, +0.7 YPP, and +0.2 yards per rush. One of their long road trips was a loss @ a bad Florida State team giving the Noles their only win so far this season. Pitt is at home and is full focused heading into a bye week. Easy win for the Panthers in this one.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -6 vs. Minnesota Lynx, Game 1 Thursday Oct 10th - Scheduling clearly favors the Liberty here who have been off for a week, while the Lynx will be playing their 3rd game this week. One thing we’ve learned this WNBA season is that depth is a huge concern for the majority of the teams in the league. It will be tough for Minnesota to get up again after their grueling 5-game series with the Sun. A demoralizing factor in this game will be the rebounding advantage the Liberty have. New York was 2nd in both offensive & defensive rebounds per game during the regular season and have continued to dominate the glass in the postseason. The Liberty have outrebounded their opponents in every playoff game and will limit the Lynx second chance opportunities. Minnesota in comparison is last in rebounding percentage in the playoffs. New York has been really good at home and has won by margin. The Liberty were 16-4 SU at home during the regular season with an average +/- of +7.0PPG. NY is 4-0 SU at home in the postseason with a +9.3PPG differential. Minnesota has beaten the Liberty 3 of four this season but this is simply a bad scheduling situation for them and will be tough to hang within double-digits.

ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints +5.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Chiefs are undefeated but their point differential is just +20 (7th in the NFL). All 4 of their wins this season have come by a TD or less. KC has won 8 of last 9 dating back to last season but 7 of those 8 wins have been one score games so they are not pulling away from teams in their wins. KC’s overall stats are pretty darn average for a team that is 4-0. They are 15th in YPP margin at +0.2 and have outgained opponents overall by just +2 YPG. On top of that, the Chiefs have LOTS of injuries on offense missing their top RB as well as their top 3 WR’s entering the season. The Saints are now 2-2 so this is a bigger game for them. Their 2 wins were both blowouts, but their losses were each down to the wire losing by 3 vs Philly and by 2 vs Atlanta. In their 26-24 loss @ Atlanta last week, New Orleans outgained the Falcons but the Birds had 2 defensive TD’s in the game. Despite their 2-2 record, New Orleans has outgained 3 of their 4 opponents and they have a better YPP margin when compared to the Chiefs. The Saints have been a long term money maker on the road going 35-18 ATS away from home over the last 6+ seasons. Lastly, in MNF games when an AFC team faces an NFC team, the home teams have been terrible with a spread record of just 12-32-2 ATS (27.3%). We give the Saints a decent shot at the upset here but worst case we like them to keep this close.

#469 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Rams are really banged up right now and it shows in their performances this season.  They will again be without their top 2 WR’s Cupp & Nakua and their offensive still has issues.  Partly due to that, their offense has struggled scoring just 18.8 PPG while only averaging 5.2 YPP.  That’s not good when your defense can’t stop anyone.  LA ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.4 YPP and dead last in rushing defense giving up 165 YPG on the ground on 5.0 YPC.  That’s not a good recipe for success especially in this game vs a Green Bay offense that is averaging 175 YPG rushing which is 2nd in the league.  The Packers struggle offensively to start last week’s game which was expected at QB Love was back but had missed a few weeks prior.  However, in the 2nd half GB kicked it in gear and nearly won in a game they trailed 28-7 at half (31-29 final).  Once Love and the offense got comfortable and back in synch they tallied over 300 yards in the 2nd half alone.  We think they’ll pick up where they left off vs this suspect Rams defense.  LA is just not playing well right now.  They rank 31st in YPP differential ahead of only New England and they have been outgained in 3 of their 4 games this season.  The only team they outgained in the stats was Chicago last week which wasn’t a surprise as the Bears rank last in the NFL in YPP offense.  We like Green Bay to win this one by more than a FG.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE (SBC) GAME OF THE MONTH: #387 ASA PLAY ON South Alabama -3 over Arkansas State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Arkansas State has the better record at 2-2 while South Alabama sits at 2-3 yet we feel the Jaguars are the much better team in this match up.  Arkie State could easily be 0-4 on the season as their wins over Central Arkansas and Tulsa by 3 & 4 points respectively.  The Red Wolves were outgained 7.1 YPP to 5.0 YPP vs FCS Central Arkansas and 5.9 YPP to 5.3 YPP vs Tulsa.  They were extremely fortunate to come out with 2 wins in those games.  On the season Arkansas State had a YPG margin of -120, a YPP margin of -2.2 and a YPC (rushing) margin of -3.2.  Compare that to South Alabama who has a YPG margin of +21, a YPP margin of +0.4, and a YPC margin of +1.7.  The Jaguars should have a massive edge on the ground in this game 210 YPG rushing on 6.2 YPC vs a Arkansas State defense 234 yards on the ground (129th) on 6.0 YPC (131st).  The Wolves have been outgained by at least 1.8 YPC in all 4 of their games this season.  The South Alabama offense is potent and we don’t see ASU keeping up here.  They rank 19th nationally in total offense (470 YPG) and 21st putting up 7.1 YPP.  ASU ranks 104th and 125th in those 2 stats.  On top of that, we don’t see the Arkansas State defense making up for their offensive deficiencies here as they rank outside the top 100 in total defense and YPP allowed.  South Alabama has won 5 straight in this series and last year they were favored by 15.5 so getting them at -3 here is a bargain.  The Jags already proved they can get it done on the road beating App State 48-14 a few weeks ago and we have App State rated as a better team that Arkansas State.  Let’s lay this small number with South Alabama.

WNBA play on Minnesota -4 vs. Connecticut Tuesday, 9:30 PM ET - Off the home loss in Game 1, we like the Lynx to bounce back in Game 2 and even this series at 1-1. After two monster scoring games of 38, 42-points against the Mercury in the first round, Napheesa Collier, struggled in G1 versus the Sun with 19-points. As a team the Lynx struggled shooting at 42% overall and just 25% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly lower than their season averages of 44.8% overall and 38% from Deep (1st in WNBA). Granted, this Sun is a very good defensive team and that has something to do with the poor shooting night but you can bet there is an upward regression for the Lynx shooting in Game 2. The Sun also had an unusual great shooting night themselves in G1 by hitting 41% of their 3-pointers. They shoot just 32.7% on the season and the Lynx held opponents to 30.1%, best percentage in the W. Minnesota is 16-5 SU their last 21 home games with an average margin of victory of +7.5PPG. Minnesota is 23-8 SU their last 31 at home and have lost back-to-back games just twice this season.

#292 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -3.5 over Seattle Seahawks, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Seattle comes into this game with a 3-0 record be we feel they are vastly overvalued early in the season.  They’ve played 3 cupcake games thus far and now are finally on the road vs a legit playoff type team.  They’ve played Denver with a rookie QB making his first ever start, @ New England (won in OT), and then vs Miami with Skylar Thompson at QB.  Their overall numbers, especially on defense, are not as good as they may seem.  Seattle ranks #1 vs the pass but again they’ve faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson.  Now they face Jared Goff at home where he has won 13 of his last 16 games and his home stats have been fantastic (70% completion rate last year with 19 TD’s).  In their only road game, Seattle struggled to slow down New England’s running game (185 yards on 5.1 YPC) and now they face a Detroit rushing attack that rates 4th in the NFL at 163 YPG.  Seattle is also really banged up on defense with potentially 4 starters out for this game and a few more in the 2 deep will have to sit as well.  One of Goff’s rare home losses was last year vs this Seattle team.  Detroit outplayed the Hawks averaging more YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempts but lost in OT.  The Lions turned the ball over 3 times in that OT loss (0 for Seattle) including a pick 6 which was the difference in the game.  A little extra motivation for Detroit in this one.  The line value is solid as Detroit was favored by 5 here last year, they were favored over playoff team Tampa Bay by 7.5 just a few weeks ago and last week on the road they were -3 @ Arizona.  This is a big home game for the Lions who are 2-1 and take the road for 4 of their next 5 games.  They lead the NFL in YPG margin at +106 and if they avoid the turnover bug, we like them to win this game by at least a TD.

WNBA top play on Minnesota -4 vs. Connecticut Sun, 8:30 PM ET - If you have been following us for any length of time you’ve heard us say many times the Lynx are the best team in the league. Napheesa Collier is one of the best in the league and she clearly upped her game in the first two playoff games against the Mercury with 38 and 42-points. Those numbers come against Brittney Griner who is labeled as a defensive stopper. Minnesota is 16-4 SU their last 20 home games with an average margin of victory of +10PPG. Connecticut is coming off a series with the Fever and got a ton of media coverage with Caitlyn Clark in town. They won big in game 1 of that series and won close in game 2. That was against a Fever team that is one of the worst defensive teams in the W, Minnesota is one of the best. These two teams have near-even season statistics when it comes to Offensive & Defensive Net ratings, but we like the scheduling situation here to back the Lynx. Minnesota is 23-7 SU their last 30 at home and will benefit from the home crowd in this one. Lay it.

#288 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -2 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is a much more important game for the Ravens who sit with a 1-2 record while the Bills have gotten off to a 3-0 start.  Baltimore has outgained each of their opponents by a combined 265 yards including topping KC by 100 yards in a week 1 loss on the road.  Their 28-25 win @ Dallas last week was a bit deceiving with the Ravens rolling out to a 28-6 lead in the 4th quarter before taking their foot off the gas.  They won’t make that mistake again as Dallas scored 3 TDs in the final 9:00 minutes to make it tighter than it should have been with Baltimore holding a 7.6 to 5.9 YPP edge in that game.  Buffalo is on the road on a short week after beating a bad Jacksonville team (0-3 record) on Monday night.  The Bills had to come from 14 points down in their opener to nip Arizona and then faced an overvalued Miami team that lost QB Tagovailoa during the game.  Buffalo is good but overvalued right now in our opinion.  The host Ravens are averaging 203 YPG rushing on a league high 5.9 YPC and they should be able to take advantage of a Buffalo defense that has allowed 4.7 YPC (22nd) and is playing without their top 2 LB’s.  When facing a mobile QB in week 1 (Arizona’s Kyler Murray) the Bills allowed 125 yards rushing on 5.0 YPC and allowed Murray to rush for over 10 YPC.  Now they face the best running QB in the league.  On the flip side, the Bills have also transitioned to a heavier rushing attack this year but they are now facing a Baltimore defense that ranks #1 in the NFL giving up just 50 rushing YPG on 2.8 YPC.  The Ravens cannot afford to drop to 1-3 with 3 of their next 4 games on the road.  Lamar Jackson is 27-4 ATS in regular season games when favored by less than 3 points or an underdog.  This is a huge home game for Baltimore and we like them to win and cover.

#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON North Carolina +2.5 over Duke, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We were on James Madison last weekend vs UNC and picked up a solid win.  We’ll switch it up this Saturday and take the Heels getting points @ Duke.  Last week’s 70-50 loss for the Tar Heels was a bit deceiving.  The yardage with JMU was basically dead even (616 to 612) but UNC lost the turnover margin at -4 (5 turnovers for UNC and 1 for JMU).  Not only that, those turnovers turned into points for as the Dukes scored TD’s on a pick 6 and a blocked punt along with 2 other UNC giveaways that also turned into 2 touchdowns.  The defense was obviously shredded but prior to last weekend that unit had played well allowing just 15.6 PPG through their first 3 games.  The defense was embarrassed last week and we look for a huge effort on that side of the ball Saturday against a Duke offense that isn’t very explosive.  The Devils rank outside the top 90 in total offense, YPP offense, and rushing offense.  Duke is 4-0 but we haven’t been overly impressed.  They struggled to beat UConn at home a few weeks ago 26-21 and they were outrushed 4.8 YPC to 3.6 YPC in that game.  Last week they faced one of the worst teams in the nation, Middle Tennessee State, and while the final score looked solid (45-17 win) they only outgained the Blue Raiders by 45 yards.  MTSU won in the trenches as well outrushing Duke 4.2 YPC to 3.5 YPC but the Raiders had 4 turnovers.  UNC head coach Mack Brown apologized to his team after last week’s loss and they’ve rallied around him this week.  We expect a big effort from the Heels.  North Carolina has dominated this series winning 28 of the last 33 meetings.  They were a dog in only 4 of those 33 match ups and covered all 4.  We like UNC to win this game outright.

#152 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas State -5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Both teams off losses last week but OSU’s was deceivingly close while KSU was the opposite.  Kansas State lost 38-9 as 7 point favorites at BYU (we were on the Cougars in that one).  Believe it or not, the Cats outgained BYU by +125 yards and outrushed them 228 to 92.  Three turnovers were a killer for KSU in that game.  The Wildcats led 6-0 with just over 2:00 minutes remaining in the first half.  4 minutes into the 2nd half (so a 6 minute span) BYU led 31-6 and had TD drives of 5, 29, 27 and 6 yards during that 6 minute span basically putting the game out of reach.  Now we get an angry Kansas State team at home that should dominate in the trenches.  They are averaging 240 yards on the ground on 6.5 YPC facing an Oklahoma State defense that ranks outside the top 100 at stopping the run.  KSU yards per carry differential (YPC offense minus YPC they allow on defense) is +3.7.  OSU’s YPC differential is -1.3 and they rank outside the top 100 both rushing on offense and stopping the run on defense as we mentioned above.  OSU looked like they gave Utah a battle last week losing 22-19.  Fact is the Cowboys were down 22-3 at home in that game with less than 6 minutes remaining.  They were outgained 457 to 285 and outrushed 250 to 48.  On top of that, Utah’s starting QB Rising didn’t play and the Utes started a freshman at QB and still dominated.  These two both have 3-1 record and have played a very similar strength of schedule, yet KSU has a YPP differential of +1.3 while OSU is -0.2.  Last time OSU visited Manhattan KS 2 years ago, they left with a 48-0 loss.  Last year the Wildcats were favored by 11.5 AT Oklahoma State and lost in a upset.  This year at home they are laying just -5 and we look for a dominating with for the home team. 

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut Sun -5 vs. Indiana Fever, 3 PM ET - The Fever are young and making their first playoff appearance in 12 years. None of the players that get significant playing time have ever been in the playoffs. Connecticut is a veteran team that plays great defense and will draw a solid home crowd, with most being their fans and not Caitlyn Clarks. The Sun were 14-6 SU at home this season with an average +- of +5.1PPG. Indiana was 8-12 SU away from home with an average differential of minus -4.7PPG. This Sun team has the best Defensive Net rating in the league at 94.1 and they’ve held 16 of twenty opponents to less than 80 points at home this season. Indiana is slightly better than the Sun in Offensive Net rating but far worse defensively with the 2nd worst Defensive Net rating in the league. You win in the playoffs with defense and the Fever don’t play any. Connecticut has won 3 of four against the Fever this season and they get this series opening win by double digits.

#464 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans -2.5 over Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans are backed into a corner here with an 0-2 record and they are in absolute must win mode. They could easily be 2-0 as they outgained each of their first 2 opponents on a YPP basis but they are -4 in turnover margin which is why they are winless. The Titans actually sit 8th in the NFL in YPP margin ahead of this Green Bay team. The Packers starting QB Love is listed as questionable for this one but we can’t imagine they’ll take a chance a play him. He’s not 100% and the Packers have a much bigger game on deck with division rival Minnesota. Our guess is he will return for that match up next Sunday. If that’s the case GB will send Malik Willis out again this week. Last week head coach Matt LaFleur asked very little of Willis as the Packers went run heavy with 53 rushing attempts and just 14 pass attempts. That plan was successful last week vs an Indy defense that has been terrible stopping the run this year already allowing almost 500 yards on the ground in two games. That strategy won’t work vs Tennessee who has an impressive front 7 and has limited their opponents to just 92 YPG rushing and ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense allowing just 206 total YPG. The Titans will take away GB’s run and force Willis to beat them through the air. This Tennessee teams knows what Willis can and can’t do and we expect them to shut down GB’s offense. NFL 0-2 teams in week 3 are 52-33 ATS (61%) over the last decade and Tennessee falls into that mode here. It’s their last hurrah as 0-3 teams almost never make the playoffs. In fact since 2003 there have been 103 teams to start 0-3 and only 1 made the playoffs (2018 Houston Texans). Tennessee is better than their record and GB has a bigger game on deck next week. Titans win and cover.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream +1.5 at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - The Liberty have locked up the #1 seed in the playoffs and will rest starters tonight against Atlanta. The Dream however need to win to have a shot at grabbing the 8th and final spot in the postseason. One thing we’ve learned in the WNBA this season is that depth is typically a concern for teams. New York has a few players that come off the bench and contribute but without their four starters of Stewart, Ionescu, Jones and Laney-Hamilton they lose 65.5PPG and the bulk of their rebounding, assists etc…Atlanta put themselves in position to make the playoffs with two straight wins over Chicago and Washington who were the other two contending teams for that coveted 8th and final spot. With the Liberty expected to sit everyone we will take Atlanta and we expect them to win this game outright.

ASA WNBA top play on Las Vegas Aces -7.5 at Seattle Storm, 10 PM ET - This number opened with Vegas -4.5 and was quickly bet up to the current number once the news of Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor were out tonight. Loyd leads the Storm in scoring at 19.7PPG while Magbegor leads the team in rebounding at 8.0. In the WNBA depth is typically a big concern for teams and these two key pieces missing will be too much for the Storm to overcome. This is a big game for both teams as they currently sit #4 (Vegas) and #5 (Storm) in the playoff standings with only 1-game separating the two teams. The significance is that the #4 seed hosts the first round series against the #5 seed. Las Vegas has looked like the team that won it all last season in recent weeks with a 7-1 SU record in their last eight games. In that 8 game stretch they have an average +/- of +9.6PPG, best in the league. Every win in that 8-game span has come against a current playoff bound team or one in contention. Seattle has won 4 in a row and 5 of their last six games, but their last 3 wins have come against the Sparks and Wings who are the two worst teams in the league and all 3 of those games were close. Las Vegas has dominated this series with a 9-1 SU/ 7-3 ATS record in the last ten meetings. LV won by 5-points on this court earlier this season when the Storm were at full strength. Today the margin is much more against this depleted Seattle roster.

#290 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -6.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Bears showed everyone in week 1 just how explosive they are going to be with rookie QB Caleb Williams under center. Chicago mustered 11 first downs, 84 yards rushing and 64 net yards passing. Williams was 14 of 29 for 93 yards. The Bears blocked a punt for a TD and returned an INT for a touchdown. Houston went into Indianapolis and dominated the Colts who were lucky to cover that game late. The Texans amassed 417 total yards at 5.8YPP, dominated the time of possession by 20 full minutes, were 100% in red zone trips and scored 29-points. RB Joe Mixon of the Texans had a huge rushing game with 159 yards and a touchdown. The Colts and Bears run a similar defensive scheme so expect Mixon/Texans running game to get untracked in a hurry. Once the run game is established QB Stroud and the passing attack can exploit a Bears pass defense that allowed the 25th most passing YPG in 2023. Houston had an average +/- at home last season of +6.9PPG. The Bears road differential was minus -6.6PPG.  Chicago lost 5 road games last season by 7 or more points. As long as this line is -7 or less we are on the Texans.

#268 ASA PLAY ON Dallas Cowboys -5.5 over New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 PM ET -

New Orleans looked great last week at home but their opponent may have had a lot to do with that.  Carolina simply looked inept on both sides of the ball.  The Saints scored 47 points on just 379 total yards for a ridiculous average of 1 point for every 8 yards gained.  Part of that was field position with New Orleans having scoring drives (TD or FG) of 1, 9, 16, and 36 yards.  QB Carr has zero pressure and completed 82% of his passes because of that.  That won’t happen this week vs a Dallas defensive front that is among the best in the NFL.  The Cowboys had 6 sacks last week vs Cleveland and finished in the top 8 last season in sack percentage.  They’ll be facing a Saints offensive line that was solid last week but came into the season ranked 31st per PFF so maybe an aberration last week vs a poor team.  Dallas was also impressive last week and played a much better opponent and they were on the road.  They dominated the Browns 33-17 holding Cleveland’s offense to just 3.3 YPP.  The Browns scored a TD with under 30 seconds left in that one to make it look more respectable than it actually was.  Now we get Dallas at home where they’ve been dominant winning 16 straight regular season games by an average margin of +17.5 PPG.  Only 3 of those 16 straight regular season wins came by less than 6 points which is today’s spread.  Dallas outscored their opponents at home by 172 points last season which was tops in the NFL.  As you might expect with those numbers, Dak Prescott’s home and road splits last season were drastically different.  At home he completed 73% of his passes for almost 2,500 yards, 22 TD’s and just 3 picks.  He should have lots of success vs a New Orleans secondary that might be without their top CB Lattimore.  Cowboys by double digits

#186 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -16.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This ain’t the Air Force team of the last few seasons.  Not even close.  The Falcons lost nearly everyone from last year’s team and rank outside the top 100 in returning yardage, returning tackles, and returning offensive line starts.  The problem is, when Air Force loses that much talent, they aren’t the team that just pays kids to come in from the portal and replace them.  They are going with what they have and it hasn’t been pretty so far this season.  The Falcons struggled in week 1 to beat FCS Merrimack and AF was actually outgained 3.8 YPP to 3.4 YPP.  Even more concerning for heavy running Air Force, they were outgained on the ground 4.2 YPG to 3.0 YPC.  That was vs a Merrimack team that turned around and played a bad UConn team last week and lost 63-17 getting outgained 625 to 279 vs the Huskies.  AF played San Jose State in week 2 and lost again averaging only 3.0 YPC.  For a heavy running team that has completed only 13 passes in 2 games to average only 3.0 YPC is a big problem.  Now they face a Baylor team that is far more talented and deep compared to Merrimack and San Jose State.  The Bears should be hungry here coming off a 23-12 loss @ Utah who many feel is the best team in the Big 12 this season.  On top of that, they lost to Air Force in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl giving them a little extra motivation.  Baylor QB Finn, transfer from Toledo, will give the AF defense big problems with his running ability, after the Falcons faced 2 non-mobile QB’s in the first 2 weeks.  Baylor is the much more athletic and deeper team here which will be key as this one is being played in 90+ degree temps in Waco.  Baylor wears down AF and rolls to a big win.

#138 ASA PLAY ON Washington -5.5 over Washington State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This game is in Seattle at the Seahawks home stadium.  Washington lost a ton of production off of last year’s team that played for the National Championship but they’ve been flying under the radar so far this season.  New HC Jedd Fisch, who led Arizona to a 10-3 record last year, and new QB Rogers who transferred from Mississippi State, have this team clicking early in the year.  They are currently 8th in the nation in YPP differential at +4.5.  They handled one of the top team in FCS, Weber State, 35-3 and outgained them by 230 yards.  Last week they beat Eastern Michigan 30-9 but the stats were much worse than that with the Huskies outgained the Eagles by 300 yards.  Wazzou is in a similar situation losing nearly all of their production from last year (113th in returning yards & 109th in returning tackles).  The Cougars beat Portland State (bad FCS team) to open the season and then beat Texas Tech in Pullman last week.  Tech had a multitude of key players that had to sit out that game including top RB Boyd along with a number of defensive starters and the Red Raiders had 4 turnovers in that game.  While Washington and Washington State haven’t played a common opponent, let’s focus on their FCS opponents in week 1.  That’s because those 2 opponents played each other in week 2.  As we mentioned, the Huskies outgained Weber State by 230 yards in week 1.  Wazzou outgained Portland State by 185 yards in week 1.  Weber State played Portland State last week and rolled to an easy 43-16 win outgaining PSU by 300 yards!  You get the point.  Washington has covered 16 of the last 23 meetings in this rivalry along with 12 of the last 14 SU.  Huskies get another won and cover in Seattle on Saturday.

ASA WNBA play on Las Vegas Aces -3.5 at Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - The Aces started the season lethargic and were clearly suffering from Championship hangover. They are starting to look like themselves again as they ramp up for another run at the Title. Las Vegas has won 4 of their last five games but are coming off a tough loss in New York on September 8th. Last season they would have overlooked this Fever team, but not this year with WNBA icon Caitlyn Clark on the roster. The Aces arguably have the best roster in the W and the best player in the league in A’ja Wilson. With this being a marquee game, we expect the cream to rise to the top and we get a spirited effort from Las Vegas. If you haven’t followed the WNBA here is what you need to know about Wilson. She leads the league in scoring (27.3ppg), is 2nd in rebounds at 11.9rpg, 1st in blocks and 3rd in steals. LV has the 4th best average scoring differential this season at +4.7PPG. On that note, the Fever have a negative average +/- of minus -2.6ppg this season. These two teams are very similar in Offensive Net rating, but the Aces hold a sizable advantage defensively. Indiana has won 6 of their last seven games but only 1 of those came against a team with a winning record. We recently laid 3-points with the Lynx on this court, and they won by 11-points. The Aces have won by double-digits in both meetings against the Fever this season. Lay the points with the road team.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -4.5 at Atlanta Dream, 7:30 PM ET - We will lay the short number with arguably the best team in the W, against one of the worst. There won’t be much of a home court advantage here for the Dream who are 7-10 SU on their home court. The Lynx have not been as good on the road this season as they are at home but still stand 12-6 SU away from home. The Dream have played a very soft schedule of late with games against the Sparks, Mercury, Wings and Fever, producing a 2-2 SU record. Atlanta has 12 wins this season and only 4 of those came against a team with a current winning record. Minnesota has the 2nd best average point differential on the road in the league at +4.8PPG. The Lynx have the second best Net Rating at +8.3 behind the Liberty at +11.9. Minnesota is one of the best defensive teams in the W and the Dream aren’t far behind on that end of the court. The big separator is on offense where the Lynx have an Offensive Net rating of 103.4 (4th) compared to the Dream at 96.5 or last in the league. In the three meetings between these two teams this season the Lynx have won by double-digits twice and +7-points in the other game. We like Minnesota here.

#474 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Washington Commanders, Sunday at  4:25 PM ET - We know opening day underdogs historically do very well, but we will make an exception here with the Bucs at home against a rookie QB making his first NFL start on the road. Tampa Bay’s head coach Todd Boyles is one of the best defensive minds in the game and has been for years. Washington’s QB Daniels is going to be special, but with a limited scheme early on, against a confusing defense is a tall task to ask in his first start. Tampa Bay gave up yards last season but didn’t give up points allowing just 19.2PPG, the 5th lowest number in the league. The Bucs will pressure Daniels with a pass rush that averaged 2.8 sacks per game last season 8th most. Offensively the Bucs have a new O-coordinator in Liam Coen, the former Rams assistant in 2022. Coen contributed to an offense that ranked among league leaders across those seasons in passing yards per game (248.1; sixth), completions (1,504; 10th), first downs per game (21.4; 10th), third-down conversion rate (41.9%; eighth), goal-to-go efficiency (75.2%; ninth), rushing touchdowns (77; fourth), and fewest sacks allowed (139; eighth). Tampa will rely on QB Mayfield and the dynamic duo at WR of Evans and Godwin against a Commander's defense that was last in the league in passing yards per game allowed at 262. Washington allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt (31st) and Tampa hit for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in 2023 (10th). Washington has a new system offensively and defensively with a new coaching staff so it’s going to take time for them to adjust with a rookie QB. Tampa ended last season on a 6-2 SU run and narrowly lost to the Lions in the playoffs. Washington closed the year by losing 7 straight. It’s going to be hot and humid in Tampa and we like the Bucs to roll in this home opener.

#368 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada pick-em over Georgia Southern, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Nevada has been a surprise this year taking a good SMU team to the wire and then turning around the next week and beating Troy on the road as 8 point underdogs (we were on Troy unfortunately).  We felt Nevada was in a really tough spot last week after nearly upsetting SMU then having to travel across the country and play in the heat and humidity @ Troy (Alabama).  The Trojans have an outstanding program (23-5 record the previous 2 seasons) and the Wolfpack got down 14-0 early and battled back for a 28-26 win.  Very impressive.  The Wolfpack have run the ball very well with 214 yards rushing last week vs good Troy defense on 6.3 YPC.  The week prior they outgained SMU on the ground by +0.5 YPC and last week outgained Troy on the ground by +1.0 YPC.  That rushing success should continue on Saturday as they face Georgia Southern defense that allowed 371 yards rushing on over 10 YPC vs Boise last week.  GSU gave Boise a decent run losing 56-45 but it really wasn’t that close as the Broncos outgained the Eagles by almost 200 yards despite running 20 fewer offensive snaps.  The final count on a yards per play basis was Boise 9.9, GSU 5.4.  We like Nevada’s new HC Choate who led a very good Texas defense the previous season and before that had an impressive run as the head man @ Montana State.  He has this team playing hard and with confidence.  They should catch Georgia Southern in a tough spot here after giving everything they had last week trying to upset Boise and now making the long travel west.  GSU is not trustworthy laying points on the road (or pick-em) as they’ve only won 7 of their last 29 road tilts outright.  As you might expect looking at those numbers, the Eagles are just 4-10 ATS as road favorites since 2015 (lined opened with GSU favored and now pick-em).  Nevada gets the win on Saturday.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -2.5 at Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - The Fever have the best home court in the WNBA with the Clark “Fever” running high, but Minnesota, in our opinion, is the 2nd best team in the W behind the Liberty. The Fever are solid offensively with the 3rd best Offensive Efficiency rating in the W at 1.055PPP. Indiana relies on their 3PT shooting which is 4th best in the league at .35%. Minnesota is slightly behind the Fever in terms of OEFF at 1.048PPP and are the best percentage 3-point team in the league at .38%. The separator between these two teams is defense. The Lynx have the best DEFF in the W at .966PPP allowed. Indiana in comparison is 2nd to last in DEFF allowing 1.086PPP. Minnesota can nullify the Fever’s typical advantage beyond the arc with the best 3PT% defense in the W at .29% allowed. Indiana will have a tough time defending the Lynx great shooting from deep as they allow opponents to make over .36%, 2nd worst number in the W. Minnesota lost to the Fever at home earlier this season and won’t overlook them here.

#186 ASA PLAY ON 10* Florida +2.5 over Miami FL, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We just don’t trust this Miami team coming out of the gates.  Lots of hype around the Canes with multiple transfers securing key spots including QB Ward who came over from Washington State.  We think it will take them some time to get acclimated to each other and let’s face it, while Miami HC Cristobal is a very good recruiter, he is not a great head man.  He has been in charge of the Canes for 2 years with plenty of talent to do very well and his record here is just 14-11.  While U of M loaded up on transfers, we don’t like the continuity of this team ranking outside the top 100 in returning letterman and return tackle percentage on defense.  Again, they may struggle early in the year starting on Saturday.  Florida is coming off a tough 5-7 season in 2023 (5 of their losses came vs teams ranked 19 or higher) and nobody is talking about this team which is just how they like it.  The Gators return a bunch of production on offense ranking 36th nationally in returning yards.  Graham Mertz is back at QB and he finished 3rd in the nation in completion percentage last year at 73%.  It looks like top RB Johnson (2,500 career yards) will play here after missing some camp after a minor knee surgery.  We’ve been hearing good things coming out of camp about the Gator defense, especially the defensive line which is very deep this season.  Miami seems to be overrated every year.  They bring in players in highly rated players in recruiting and the portal and it rarely transfers to the field  The Canes were ranked in the top 25 entering the season in 2018, 2021, and 2022 and finished outside the rankings in each of those season.  The Swamp is a tough place to play with the Gators winning 28 of their last 35 games here, and Napier is 11-2 ATS in his career as a small home dog (+5 or less).  We take the Gators getting points at home on Saturday.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* New York Liberty -2.5 at Seattle Storm, 10 PM ET - We like the Liberty here by double-digits in Seattle over the Storm. Seattle has a loaded roster but has struggled of late with a 2-3 SU record since the Olympic break. The Storm have a pair of wins against the Dream and Mystics who have a combined 19-42 SU record and are two of the bottom four teams in the league. The three losses in that five-game sample have come against the Dream, Fever and Mystics, again lower tier teams in the W. New York has the best record in the league at 26-6 SU with the best average point differential of +9.3PPG. The Liberty have the best offensive rating in the league at 109, the 4th best defensive rating at 97.1 and the best overall Net rating of +11.9. Seattle is slightly better than NY defensively but much worse offensively. The Liberty are 12-4 SU on the road this season with an average +/- of +9.4PPG. Granted, Seattle is good at home with a 12-4 SU record and an average point differential of +10.5PPG but their schedule to this point at home has been extremely easy. NY has beaten the storm 5 straight times and are in a great spot here coming off a loss in their most recent game. The Liberty are 11-1 SU in the last two regular seasons when coming off a loss and with this number being as low as it is we like our chances. Lay it!

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx +6 at Las Vegas Aces, 9:30 PM ET - This matchup between the top two teams in the Western Conference promises to be a close one, likely decided by 5 points or less either way. Minnesota holds the edge in overall Net Rating at +8.2, compared to Las Vegas at +6.4. Defensively, the Lynx are superior, ranking 1st in Defensive Net Rating, while the Aces come in at 5th. Offensively, the Aces are 2nd in the WNBA, with the Lynx at 6th. Minnesota has excelled as an underdog this season, boasting a 7-3 record against the spread in that role. They’ve also won three consecutive games, giving them a 1.5-game lead over the Aces in the standings. With Collier back, the Lynx are significantly stronger than the team that struggled before the All-Star break. They are 7-5 SU on the road this season with a point differential of +4.6 PPG. Conversely, the Aces haven’t been a reliable bet this season, particularly against the spread, both at home (6-9 ATS) and overall (10-16 ATS). Last season, Las Vegas dominated at home with a 19-1 SU record and an average point differential of +17.6 PPG. However, this season they are just 9-6 SU at home with a much smaller average point differential of +4.5 PPG. While Vegas’ offense has seen improvement with Chelsea Gray back in action, I’m hesitant to expect a dominant win from the Aces, especially after their recent home loss to the New York Liberty, another top team. The Aces have already lost six home games this season, and clearly home-court advantage hasn’t provided the Aces with the edge it once did.

#922 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 3:45 PM ET - This game is being priced with too much emphasis on the starting pitching match-up and, even then, there is a flawed perception here!  When one first looks at this match-up they see Garrett Crochet with a 3.61 ERA this season and a 3.28 ERA in his career.  One also sees Logan Webb with similar numbers as he has a 3.17 ERA this season and a 3.36 ERA in his career!  Before we even get into the vast difference between the recent trending of the White Sox and Giants, there is also a big difference in trending between these pitchers and it is not what one would expect given those numbers for Crochet.  The White Sox southpaw is dealing with a major stretch of struggles with only his last start, though short, an exception! Crochet has not lasted more than 4 innings in any of his last 7 starts and has averaged 3.1 innings per start!  Behind him is a very bad White Sox bullpen and also Crochet is off a scoreless 4-inning start but this followed him having given up 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings in his 4 outings since the All Star break!  As for Webb, he is in phenomenal current form as he has allowed only 2 earned runs in 29.1 innings over his last 4 starts.  Also, on the season he is 7-3 with a 2.26 ERA in his home starts!  Opponents are hitting only .223 against him in San Francisco.  Now, about those team trends, the Giants have won 11 of 16 home games and are still very much alive in the Wild Card race.  The White Sox, on other hand, are going down this season as one of the worst teams in all-time MLB history.  They head into this one with just 3 wins in 35 games and also are 12-53 on the road this season.  San Francisco wins this season have featured 72% of them coming by a margin of at least 2 runs.  Chicago's losses have seen 72 of 97 come by a multi-run margin.  Strong odds on yet another blowout loss for the White Sox here. Lay the run line in this one!

ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings +14.5 at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Liberty who are off a HUGE win in Las Vegas and have a BIG game on deck against Connecticut. Meanwhile Dallas comes into this game off a blowout loss at home to the Sun and will be looking to play at a much higher level here. The Wings got some help with the return of Satou Sabally who has missed most of this season with an injury. Sabally averaged 18.6PPG last season and grabbed over 8-rebounds per game. The Liberty have faced the weakest schedule in the league this season, so their overall stats are skewed in their favor. The Wings by comparison have played the toughest schedule to date, hence their negative -8.2PPG differential. NY is 12-2 SU on the season but are 3-9 ATS at home as a favorite. The Wings have failed to cover as a double-digit dog in their last three games in that role but that was also without Sabally in the lineup. The Wings have covered 4 of the last six meetings dating back to the start of the 22 season. We like the situation and the dog here.

ASA top play on Seattle Storm -2.5 vs. Indiana Fever, 3:30 PM ET - The pace of play or tempo for this game should be fast as the Storm are the 5th fastest paced team in the league at 97.90 possessions per game, the Fever are 6th at 96.92. In terms of offense, Storm are 5th in O-Net rating, the Fever are 6th. Seattle is the more efficient team averaging 1.047-points per possession, Indiana checks in at 1.034PPP, both rank in the top half of the league. The big difference between these two teams is defensively. The Storm are 3rd in Defensive Net Rating (94), the Fever are second to last at 108.2. Indiana is 7-5 SU at home this season, but they do have a negative average point differential of minus -1.7PPG. These two teams have met 3 times this season with the Storm winning all three and the last two came by 15 and 12-points. Seattle is off an upset loss in Atlanta, while the Fever just got a big win over Phoenix. We like the Storm to bounce back here.

#200029 ASA PLAY ON Crystal Palace +0.25 (-126) at Brentford, Sunday at 9 AM ET - Crystal Palace looks quite strong in terms of their starting 11 after the off-season changes they made. Brentford has a defense that is looking a bit depleted entering this one. The Bees are at home and are a tough club in their own right but we like the way this Crystal Palace club is headed and getting the +0.25 goal means we can still earn some cash even if this match ends in a draw here. Last season Crystal Palace had only 8 road losses in 19 road matches while Brentford had only 5 home wins in 19 home matches. The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw in this one. We will take Crystal Palace on the goal line in this one.

#929 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Los Angeles Angels, Saturday at 9:38 PM ET - The Braves expected to start Chris Sale in this one and the Angels are likely trotting out Griffin Canning to the mound for this one.  Sale is 13-3 with a 2.61 ERA this season.  Canning is 4-10 with a 5.11 ERA on the year.  Sale is off an outing in which he threw 7 scoreless innings on the road and he has now allowed a total of only 13 earned runs in his last 10 road starts!  Canning has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 7 of his last 11 starts.  In addition to the starting pitching edge here for Atlanta, the Braves are seeking to bounce back from a 3-2 loss yesterday here in Anaheim.  The Braves are now off B2B road losses but this followed wins in 8 of 11 away from home.  Atlanta has not lost more than 2 straight road games since two months ago - all the way back in the middle of June!  The Braves had scored 6.3 runs per game in their 8-3 run on the road prior to these B2B losses.  We look for them to bounce back strong here against Canning and the hosts will not be able to keep up.  This is an Angels team that has averaged only 2.9 runs scored per game in their last 7 games.  Los Angeles is on a 5-9 run in home games and has scored only 2.4 runs per game in their last 9 games played here in Anaheim.  The Angels bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom half of the majors while the Braves bullpen ERA is among the top 3 teams in the majors!  The Braves are 22-13 in interleague action this season and 51 of their 64 wins on the season have come by 2 or more runs.  Lay the run line in this one!

#966 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - This game is being priced with too much emphasis on the starting pitching match-up and, even then, there is a flawed perception here!  When one first looks at this match-up they see Garrett Crochet with a 3.65 ERA this season and a 3.30 ERA in his career.  One also sees Spencer Arrighetti, a rookie, with a 5.14 ERA this season!  Before we even get into the vast difference between the recent trending of the White Sox and Astros, there is also a big difference in trending between these pitchers and it is not what one would expect given those numbers.  Arrighetti has been pitching like a phenom of late while Crochet is dealing with a major stretch of struggles!  The Astros Arrighetti has been charged with only 11 earned runs on just 20 hits in his last 5 starts and these have covered 31 innings on the mound!  Also, Arrighetti has struck out 33 in 19 innings over his last 3 starts!  Crochet has not lasted more than 4 innings in any of his last 6 starts and has averaged 3 innings per start!  Behind him is a very bad White Sox bullpen and also Crochet has given up 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings in his 4 outings since the All Star break!  About these teams, the Astros have won 8 straight games and have soared to 1st place in the NL West.  The White Sox, on other hand, are going down this season as one of the worst teams in all-time MLB history.  They head into this one with just 2 wins in 28 games and also are 11-49 on the road this season.  The Astros wins this season have featured 80% of them coming by a margin of at least 2 runs.  Chicago's losses have seen 68 of 93 come by a multi-run margin.  Strong odds on yet another blowout loss for the White Sox in this one.  Lay the run line in this one!

#114 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets +2.5 over Washington Commanders, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Commanders will be sending rookie QB Daniels under center to start on Saturday and we expect him to have big problems vs this Jets defense.  The 2 teams had a joint practice on Thursday in New York and the NY defense dominated as we expected.  Daniels was 7 of 15 passing but all of his completions were screens and check downs.  It’s been reported that he had only 25 yards passing on those 7 completions.  Washington’s offensive line is not a strong point (ranked 19th per PFF) and they are banged up on top of that.  Three potential starters sat out Thursday’s joint practice and most likely won’t play on Saturday.  That’s bad news vs a Jets defensive line that is talented and deep (ranked #1 per PFF).  We look for Washington’s offense to struggle big time on Saturday vs this deep NY defense.  On the other side the Jets sat QB Rodgers for the joint practice on Thursday and they still moved the ball well on the Commanders defense with veteran Tyrod Taylor at the helm.  Rodgers won’t play in this game on Saturday but Taylor, who has over 12,000 career passing yards, should get lots of run with 3rd string QB Travis out with an injury.  Jets head coach Saleh has been a successful pre-season coach with a 6-3 overall record including a perfect 3-0 in his first NFLX game each season.  The Jets are the better overall team and much stronger on both lines of scrimmage.  We’ll take NY at home on Saturday.

ASA play on Houston Texans -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Friday, 7 PM ET - The first aspect of this game we will discuss is the QB rotations for both teams. Depth is critical in NFLx games, and the deeper teams have a clear advantage later in the game. The Texans are the clear-cut choice here when it comes to QB depth. Texans will start and play CJ Stroud and the other starters into the 1st quarter. They will then turn over the QB duties to Davis Mills, Case Keenum and Tim Boyle. Davis/Keenum have a combined 114 career NFL games under center, including several starts. Tim Boyle has even played in 20 games dating back to 2019. In the shortened action in the preseason HOF opener the 3 Texan QB’s combined to go 19/27 for 197 passing yards with 2 TD’s and 0 INT’s. The Steelers have a QB battle going on in camp, but Russell Wilson will not play in this game and HC Tomlin says Justin Fields won’t start and will only see limited action. Pittsburgh was in the bottom ten teams in the league in Offensive total yards while managing just 17.9PPG which ranked 28th. Houston on the other hand was 12th in total yards gained last season while putting up 22.2PPG. The Texans hold the advantage defensively here too as they gave up 330.7YPG a year ago versus the Steelers who allowed 342.1YPG. We like the aspect of the Texans having live game experience under their belt after the Hall of Fame game while the Steelers are just getting started. We will lay the points with Houston.

#972 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The Mariners Luis Castillo has a 2.82 ERA at home this season. He is off a fantastic July in which he went 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA. Seattle was off yesterday after a 6-0 shutout loss to the Phillies Sunday. The Mariners will be ready to bounce back off that loss here and had won 6 of 8 games before that loss. The Tigers have lost 9 of 12 games and scored only 2.8 runs a game in these dozen games. Detroit starter Keider Montero has allowed 19 earned runs in his last 4 starts and had allowed 5 earned runs in 3 straight outings before being charged with 4 earned runs in his most recent one. The rookie is 1-5 this season and opponents have hit .298 against him on the road this season. This one is set up well for the Mariners to roll big at home. The Tigers are off a 1-run loss but this followed a stretch where each of their 6 losses came by a minimum margin of 4 runs! We will lay the 1.5 runs here with confidence. The Mariners most recent win was by 1 run but this followed a stretch where each of their 9 victories prior to that one were by 2 or more runs. Lay the run line in this one!

#216554 ASA PLAY ON Guadalajara +0.25 goals (-125) over LA Galaxy, Sunday at 10:30 ET - This one being played in Leagues Cup action. There is some goal line available at +0.25 in the marketplace if you lay the juice (-125 range) and we like the value with this as a draw is what Guadalajara needs to advance to the knockout stages. As for Los Angeles, they are already guaranteed of advancing. So this one sets up nicely for a rather disinterested LA club to go through the motions and Guadalajara can play a safe game as well and play for the draw. We do expect Guadalajara to do enough to get the win here but if they do not, then look for this to be a draw. Once Guadalajara gets that first one (we just can not see LA scoring first given the metrics for this one), they can really settle in and play a game characterized by a defensive-first mentality the rest of the way as they then look to just protect the lead in this one. We just do not see LA pushing the tempo too much in this one and the hungry underdog manages to at least get the much-needed draw here even if this one becomes a drab 0-0 or perhaps 1-1 affair. We will take Guadalajara on the goal line in this one.

#216526 ASA PLAY ON Monterrey PK (-145) over Pumas, Saturday at 10 ET - This one being played in Leagues Cup action. There is some goal line available in the marketplace if you lay the juice (-145 range) and we like the value with this as a draw would then become a push. We do expect Monterrey to get the win but if they do not, then look for this to be a draw. We just can not see Pumas getting an upset here. Once Monterrey gets that first one, look for the floodgates to open up for them in this one. We are getting line value here because Monterrey has underachieved recently but now all the chips are on the table and we look for this to bring out the best in them here. They have more talent and better attacking talent than Pumas and this will show up on the pitch in this one now that it is do or die time. This is when the elite stars shine! We will take Monterrey in this one.

#974 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot with a huge pitching edge. The Astros have lost 3 straight games but are a perfect 3-0 since mid-May when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3+ games.  Houston was on a 43-25 run prior to this 3-game losing streak and we look for them to bounce right back here.  The Astros are starting Framber Valdez here and he is 5-2 at home this season.  He had a tough May but since then has given up 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 10 starts.  The Pirates are starting Jake Woodford here.  He performed well on a minor-league contract after previously pitching with the White Sox earlier this season.  The trouble is, just like his starts earlier this season with the White Sox, Woodford has not performed well at the MLB level.  Woodford had a 10.80 ERA earlier this season for Chicago.  Also, last season for St Louis, Woodford had a 6.23 ERA in 15 games (8 starts).  Opponents hit .314 against him last season with the Cardinals and he got hit hard with the White Sox earlier this season too.  Now his debut with the Pirates and we expect his struggles to resume at the MLB level.  47 of 55 Houston wins have been by a margin of 2 or more runs.  18 of 26 Pittsburgh road losses by a margin of 2 or more runs this season.  Big edges all around for the home team here.  There is a reason Houston is so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the home team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#960 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 2:35 PM ET - We have stayed away from this series after we got burned with a 1-run win in the first game of the series and we had the run line.  Laying the -1.5 runs on the run line to avoid laying big prices always carries with it the risk of getting burned by a 1-run win but we like our chances for a home blowout in the series finale here.  Texas is going for the sweep and Chicago has now lost 10 straight games!  Note that the White Sox have scored only 2 runs per game last 11 games and the last 10 games in this low-scoring stretch have all been losses.  56 of 77 Chicago losses this season have come by a multi-run margin.  Texas has scored 5 runs per game last 20 games and has won 11 of 15 games.  Rangers build off the momentum of 3 straight wins in this series punctuated by the huge 10-2 win yesterday.  We look for the Rangers to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings.  The starting pitching match-up is expected to be Max Scherzer versus Jonathan Cannon.  Scherzer is off a tougher start but it came against the league-best hitting Orioles.  Now he faces the league-worst hitting White Sox!  He takes advantage and dominates.  Scherzer is still getting back to full strength after missing time with injury but this is a guy who has dominated for many years and facing light-hitting Chicago will help him round back into top form!  As for Cannon, he is a rookie and is 0-3 with a 6.46 ERA in his road starts and opponents hitting .313 against him away from home.  He catches the Rangers lineup confident off the 10-run outburst yesterday.  The surge continues here in a home blowout.  Lay it!

#208009 ASA PLAY ON Independiente PK +110 over Instituto, Thursday at 8 ET - This one in  Argentine Primera Division action. This is a value spot for Independiente on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK +110 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Independiente but it is definitely nice to have that added value with this line. Independiente has gone undefeated in the last 5 meetings between these clubs with 3 wins and 2 draws. They have been the much better club from a defensive standpoint and, amazingly, have allowed only 3 goals in their 9 road matches this season! Instituto, on the other hand, has scored better than their opponents in this match but they have also allowed 1.3 goals per match when at home this season. We get excellent line value here with the better defensive team that also has owned this series in recent seasons. We expect a solid Independiente win here though we will grab the goal line at a pick'em so we have the added insurance in case this is a draw. Take Independiente Thursday evening.

#235758 ASA PLAY ON Canada +1 goal -106 over Uruguay, Saturday at 8 ET - We are confident that Canada has a chance for a big dog win here but we will grab the 1 goal just in case. We faded Uruguay with Colombia and we got the win with Colombia as a big dog even after they were down to 10 men. Of course Canada is not at the level of Colombia but, keep in mind, Uruguay had high hopes in this tourney and were on the way until that loss. As for Canada they have played better than expected in this tournament and are happy to be playing for 3rd place! Uruguay is absolutely disappointed to be here and they are also short-handed for this one as they are missing some solid players for this one. The emotional letdown also could lead to a truly lackluster effort from the favorite in this one. We take advantage! Take Canada +1 goal on Saturday evening.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* Chicago Sky +10 at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - The Liberty are in one of the stronger ‘fade’ systems in the current WNBA, and that certainly factors into our decision to take the Sky in this setting. The Liberty are 10-1 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. The Sky are a respectable .500 or 5-5 SU away from home with a net differential per game of +0.6PPG. Chicago has lost by double-digits just once this season on the road and they already have a win in New York earlier this season. The Liberty are clearly one of the best teams in the league, but they continue to be slightly over-valued by the oddsmakers with their overall 8-11 ATS record. New York has faced one of the softest schedules in the league this season and are also coming off a huge win over Connecticut, while the Sky are off a loss. New York has the better overall offensive numbers, but these two teams are even defensively. We like the points and the Pooch here.

#969 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 9:38 PM ET - The Rangers have won 4 straight games by a combined score of 29 to 9! With B2B high-scoring wins under their belt in this 4-game winning streak, Texas is quickly building up confidence at the plate. For the downtrodden Angels, the opposite is true! Los Angeles has lost 7 of 8 games! Also, in the 5 most recent losses in this stretch, LA has been outscored by a combined score of 29 to 5! You can definitely see these two teams are going in opposite directions right now. Though the bullpen is not a strength for either team this season, the Angels bullpen ERA is the highest in the AL. Also, with Roansy Contreras on the mound in this one, that struggling bullpen is likely to be called upon early in this one! Contreras hasn't gone beyond the 3rd inning in either of his last two starts and has been hit hard plus has more walks than strikeouts in these two outings. Contreras is only expected to get another start here because the Angels are currently so short on starting pitching. This will again cause the Angels bullpen to continue to be over-used. As for the expected Rangers starter here, Max Scherzer has been building up strength and pitch count since he resumed and he could even go 7 innings in this one! Scherzer has been handcuffing hitters and, though his strikeout numbers are lower than usual he is inducing plenty of weak contact. Pop ups, foul outs, ground outs ... those types of outs have been on display as Scherzer gears up. We look for another solid outing from him here as the Angels struggles at the plate continue. Again, a TOTAL of only 5 runs scored for the Angels in their last 5 losses! The Rangers continue to work their way back up the AL West standings as the Mariners and Astros are each off B2B losses. It is a long season and Texas is starting to believe again as they are not yet out of the hunt for another strong finish to the season and then of course there is always then hope of another post-season run like last season's World Champion team. As Texas surges, the Angels continue to falter as this team is just nowhere near the lineup it once was without Ohtani (now with Dodgers) and Trout (still injured) and their pitching has also been a big concern all season long. Look for the Rangers to stay red hot here and win this by a margin. About that margin, 16 of the Angels last 17 losses have been by 2 or more runs. 17 of the last 19 Texas wins have been by 2+ runs! Look for Texas to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings. Lay it!

#907 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - The Braves Chris Sale is having a fantastic season.  The Diamondbacks Yilber Diaz comes in with high expectations based on his minor league success but, of course, pitching at the MLB level is entirely different.  This is his MLB debut and he is facing a very tough assignment having to face the Braves.  As for Sale, he had one unreal ugly start versus Oakland in his last 11 starts.  In the other 10 starts he allowed a total of only 9 earned runs!  Not only that, Sale has allowed - other than that start against the A's - just 22 earned runs in 95.2 innings this season.  He is 8-1 with a 1.53 ERA in night games this season and has held opponents to a .163 batting average in those 9 starts.  We have fantastic line value here with the Braves available at -115 by laying the 1.5 runs on the run line in this spot.  Also, in terms of bullpens here, the Braves are #1 in the NL with a 2.97 ERA.  The Diamondbacks are #25 out 30 MLB teams with a 4.44 ERA.  Arizona is 20-27 against teams with a winning record on the season.  The Diamondbacks are also 6-10 against NL East teams this season and 13-17 against left-handed starters.  Sale is a tough one so this is a really tough spot for Arizona as Diaz is likely to hit some stumbles in his first ever MLB appearance.  Atlanta off B2B wins over a strong Phillies team and the Braves have now won 14 of 23 games.  The Dbacks off B2B wins at San Diego but this followed losses in 7 of 12 games and Arizona has lost all 3 games with Atlanta this season plus 6 of last 8 dating back to last season!  Look for Atlanta to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings.  Lay it!

ASA top play on Chicago Sky +9.5 at Seattle Storm, 6 PM ET - The Sky just beat this Storm team on July 5th, 88-84 a +10-point underdog. We doubt they can win back-to-back games in Seattle but we do think they can keep this game close throughout. Chicago has won 4 of their last six games and the two losses came against the Aces and Lynx by 8-points each. Obviously, those two teams are arguably the two best teams in the W. Seattle had won 4 straight games, all at home, but three of those came against Dallas and Indiana who have a combined 12 wins. Seattle is 8-2 SU at home this season with a +11.9PPG point differential, but Chicago is 5-4 SU away from home and one of only 5 teams in the league with a positive +/- at +2.1PPG. The Sky are one of the best overall rebounding teams in the league and can limit the Storm’s second chance opportunities as they did in the previous game with a +10-rebound advantage. The immediate revenge angle doesn’t work in this game so let’s grab the generous number and the Chicago Sky.

#235745 ASA PLAY ON Brazil PK-120 over Uruguay, Saturday at 9 ET - This one in Copa America action. This is a value spot for Brazil on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK-120 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Brazil but it is nice to have that added value with this line. Uruguay has surprised but now faces a stiff step up in terms of level of competition. Even without Vinicius Junior, Brazil is the play here. In fact, his absence for this one is serving to give us line value because the betting markets have overemphasized the impact of his absence. Uruguay won the most recent meeting 2-0 but Brazil entered that one having won 4 straight meetings by a combined score of 11 to 2. While we certainly respect of Uruguay having this hot run through the tournament, we feel strongly that they have finally met their match here. Brazil gets revenge for October loss right here, right now. We expect a solid Brazil win here though we will grab the goal line at a pick'em so we have the added insurance in case this is a draw. Take Brazil Saturday evening.

ASA play on Minnesota Lynx -8.5 vs Washington Mystics, 8 PM ET - Minnesota was looking like the best team in the league with a 13-3 start to the season and a win over New York in the Commissioner's Cup, but have faltered in their last two games giving us value today versus today, Mystic. The Lynx have the 2nd best average point differential in the league at +7.9PPG, have the 2nd best Net Rating, are 1st defensively in Net Rating and allow the 2nd fewest PPG at 74.6. Minnesota puts up 83PPG at home this season with a 9-2 SU record and a +9.5PPG differential. The Lynx are coming off a pair of losses to the two best teams in the Eastern Conference (Connecticut and New York) and should rebound here with a great effort. Washington will be playing their 3rd straight road game after a win in L.A. and a 21-point loss in Las Vegas. The Aces were just favored by 16-points at home against the Mystic and now the Lynx are laying less than 10-points. Washington is 2-9 SU on the road this season with an average differential of minus -7.9PPG, one of the worst numbers in the W. The Mystic have the 2nd worst Offensive Net Rating in the league and will have a very tough time scoring against this elite Lynx defense. We expect the Lynx to get back into the win column here with a double-digit victory.

#235737 ASA PLAY ON Canada PK-115 over Venezuela, Friday at 9 ET - This one in Copa America action. This is a value spot for Canada on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK-115 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Canada but it is nice to have that added value with this line. Venezuela has surprised but off a 1-0 win over an outclassed Jamaica team. Canada had to face a tough Argentina team but then held their own against Peru (a win) and Chile (a draw). Considering this we see value here with many still being non-believers in Canada. There is a reason this match is priced about equal on Canada and Venezuela and the draw despite prevailing market opinion favoring Venezuela. In other words, don't let the line fool you here. Canada is going to surprise yet again. They have responded very well now under Jesse Marsch. They are bringing solid intensity and confidence is on the rise. We expect that to lead to a surprise win here though we will grab the goal line at a pick'em so we have the added insurance in case this is a draw. Take Canada Friday evening.

ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings -4 vs. Atlanta Dream, 7:30 PM ET - Unfortunately, this line moved quickly with the Dream opening as the favorite before the Wings were immediately bet by the sharps and are now favored. We feel there is still enough value in Dallas and will back them at home here and predict a win by margin. Dallas looked much better than we expected in their previous game against the Mercury and look like they are adjusting to their new lineups. The Wings have been decimated by injuries this season but still have Howard (17.8PPG) and Ogunbowale (23.8PPG) who can carry the scoring load against a Dream team that struggles on the offensive end of the court. Atlanta is last in the W in Offensive Net Rating at 95.3, they are the worst shooting team at 40.4% and make the fewest FG’s per game at 26.3. Dallas can score with the 6th best team FG% in the league and rank 8th in Offensive Net Rating. The Wings are also the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the W while the Dream are in the bottom half of the league in defensive rebounding. Dallas has faced a tougher schedule in the West and face a Dream team that has just 5 road wins in their last 20 away from home. We will lay it with Dallas.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -2.5 vs. Connecticut Sun, 8 PM ET - This is another great spot to back a Western Conference team over an Eastern Conference team in essentially a pick’em game. These two teams have near identical records with the Sun checking in at 13-4 SU, the Lynx are 13-3. The difference is the Sun have played the easiest schedule in the W this season while the Lynx has faced an average schedule. When you factor in the Lynx’s point differential and their strength-of-schedule they have the best rating in the league by far. When looking at raw statistics, even after facing the much tougher schedule the Lynx have a better average point differential per game of +8.6PPG compared to +6.8PPG by the Sun. Minnesota also has the better overall Net Rating differential of the two teams. We also like the fact that the Lynx are coming off a loss in New York in their previous game and are now at home where they are 9-1 SU this season with an average margin of victory of nearly 9PPG. Lay it with the Lynx.

#928 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Cincinnati Reds, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - This is a great spot with a huge pitching edge.  The Yankees are at home and have Luis Gil on the mound and facing the Reds and Graham Ashcraft.  Gil is 9-3 this season with a 3.15 ERA and he has held opponents to a .169 batting average!  Ashcraft, on the other hand, has been trending the wrong way and has been charged with 18 earned runs spanning 19 innings over his last 4 starts.  The Yankees are off a big 8-1 win Sunday and got their bats going again in the final 3 games of their series with the Blue Jays at Toronto.  The Reds are off a 2-0 loss and have lost 10 of 15 games and scored only 1.9 runs per game in the 10 defeats.  Cincinnati is 18-29 against teams with a winning record this season.  The Yankees are 44-20 against right-handed starters this season.  Of course there is plenty of solid reasoning as to why the Yankees are so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a strong spot and available without any juice on the price by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA WNBA top play on 10* Phoenix Mercury -8 vs Indiana Fever, 3 PM ET - We’ve had success backing Western Conference teams versus Eastern Conference opponents in recent wagers and will stick with that theme here. The top four teams in the West, which includes Phoenix, are equal or better than the top two teams in the East (Liberty and Sun). The Mercury got off to a slow start without their center Britney Griner but have since won 5 of their last seven games with the All-Star center in the lineup. In that 7-game stretch the two losses the Mercury have are to the best team in the league Lynx and the defending Champion Aces. The Mercury are 7-3 SU and ATS their last ten games at home and their last three wins have all come by 6+ points. Phoenix has played the toughest schedule in the WNBA this season and now have a positive Net Rating in their last seven games of +2.7. Indiana had a modest 4-game winning streak, but those W’s came against some of the worst teams in the league (Dream 2x, Mystics and Sky). On the season the Fever have the 10th worst average point differential of minus -7.2PPG. The Fever have some defensive deficiencies, ranking last in Defensive Net rating while allowing the most points in the league at 87.9PPG. We were just on the Mercury -10.5 against a similar Sparks team in which they won by 14-points. We expect the same results here and a double-digit win.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* Phoenix Mercury -10.5 vs. LA Sparks, 10 PM ET - The Sparks have several injury concerns and aren’t deep to begin with, which has helped contribute to their current 6-game losing streak. Coincidentally, all 6 of those games were on the road as they are again tonight in Phoenix. L.A. is 1-9 SU away this season, 6-4 ATS in those games but most recently they have lost 6 of their last eight road games by double digits. One of those L’s came in Phoenix *68-87) against this Mercury team that did not have Brittney Griner in the lineup. The Mercury are a much better team with Griner and 4-2 SU in the games she’s played in this season. They have impressive wins in that stretch against Minnesota, Seattle and New York along with a close loss to Las Vegas. Those previously mentioned teams are some of the best in the league. The Mercury are also coming off a dreadful loss in Minnesota 60-73 after shooting just 31% overall and 21% from Deep. That poor shooting performance was against the best defensive team in the W and now they step down to face one of the worst in the Sparks. L.A. is 10th in defensive Net rating on the season and on this current road trip they are allowing 89PPG which is the 2nd highest PPG averaging in the league over that 6-game span. Phoenix has faced the toughest schedule in the league this season which has impacted their -3.0PPG average point differential. The Sparks have the 2nd worst average point differential in the league at -7.1PPG but have faced an average schedule. We like the Mercury here minus the points.

ASA WNBA top play on Seattle Storm -8.5 vs. Indiana Fever, 10 PM ET - We are slowly finding out the Western Conference is the stronger of the two Conferences with Minnesota, Las Vegas, Seattle and Phoenix all capable of winning the title this season. The East has New York and Connecticut, but they all fall significantly after that. The Commissioner Cup was a great example as the Lynx went to New York and beat the Liberty 94-89. Seattle got off to a slow start to the season but are starting to figure their new roster out. On the season they have a +5.0 Net Rating, in their last 10 games they are +6.8. They have faced the 2nd toughest schedule to date yet have an average margin of victory of +3.81PPG. The Storm relies on the 3rd best defense in the W that allows .966-points per possession. Indiana has faced a similar strength of schedule but has a negative point differential of -7.0PPG and ranks last in DEFF allowing 1.119PPP. In nine games against comparable opponents to the Storm, the Fever have lost by double-digits seven times. One of those blowout losses for Indiana came against this Storm team on May 30th, a 103-88 beatdown. Lay the points with Seattle.

#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot with a huge pitching edge.  The Astros have won 5 straight games and have been on a long-term surge.  Houston has won 26 of 42 since their rough start to the season.  Now they are at home where they have won 7 of 9 games and they are hosting a Rockies team that year in and year out is one of the worst road teams in the league in recent seasons.  Colorado is 11-27 on the road this season and enters this game having lost 16 of 22 overall.  The Astros have 38 wins this season and 33 of them have been by at least a 2-run margin so we feel especially comfortable laying the run line here.  Houston won the first two games this season between these teams and those wins were by a combined score of 20 to 6.  The Rockies 51 losses this season have included 40 by at least a 2-run margin.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the majors.  The Colorado starter, Austin Gomber, is in dreadful current form.  Gomber has allowed 19 earned runs in 17.2 innings spanning his last 4 starts and 3 of the 4 outings were on the road so these numbers were not inflated because of Coors Field.  In fact, on the season, Gomber has been worse on the road than at home as he is 1-3 with a 5.05 ERA away from home.  The Astros Hunter Brown has been in top form of late while Gomber is winless with a 9.68 ERA in his 4 June outings!  Brown, on the other hand, has a 2.45 ERA in his last 9 starts spanning May and June!  Brown has dominated his last two starts with 0 walks and 15 strikeouts and only 1 earned run in 13 innings!  Brown and the Astros enter this game with confidence riding high and they are home.  The Rockies back on the road where they have struggled again all season including losses in 6 of last 9 games and they were outscored a combined 43 to 16 in the 6 losses.  Big edges all around for the home team here.  There is a reason Houston is so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the strong value with a surging team at home and hosting a road-adverse foe.  This is especially true with the bet available at a modest, yet reasonable, price by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Lynx +6 at NY Liberty, 8 PM ET - The Liberty are clearly a contender this year and a solid team, but they also have some favorable statistics as a result of playing a weak schedule. In fact, the Liberty schedule is the second weakest in the entire W. They play in the Eastern Conference which isn’t as good as the West from top to bottom. They have three losses this season, two of which came against Western Conference opponents the Mercury and this same Lynx team. Minnesota is 13-3 SU on the season and have the best Net Rating in the WNBA, slightly ahead of this Liberty team, but again, the Lynx have faced the much tougher schedule. Minnesota has the #1 defense in the league and are 3rd in Offensive Net Rating. The Lynx have the best average point differential in the league at +10.6PPG, the Liberty are second at +9.0PPG. These two teams met in late May in Minnesota and the Lynx dominated the Liberty with an 84-67 win. We like Minnesota here and wouldn’t be shocked if they won outright.

#924 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over Texas Rangers, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Brewers to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Milwaukee is expected to send Freddy Peralta to the mound while Texas counters with Michael Lorenzen. The Brewers right-hander Peralta is off a great start in LA against the Angels but he had a rare poor outing in his most recent home start.  Prior to that Peralta was in fine form at home and he wants to make up for that rare unusually rough home start with a gem here versus the defending world champs.  Texas has definitely taken a step back this season and the Rangers are in for a tough one versus Peralta here.  Prior to the bad home start, Peralta had allowed only 12 earned runs in his 5 home starts this season and struck out 40 in 27.2 innings here at home in Milwaukee.  The Brewers bats will face a downward-trending Lorenzen here. The Rangers right-hander has managed to limit the damage in recent starts but the signs are there that he is regressing.  Lorenzen has had nearly as many homers allowed (5) as strikeouts registered (6) in his last 3 starts.  That is not a good sign and we look for the Brewers lineup to take advantage. Milwaukee has scored about 5 runs per game over their last 8 games and wins in 10 of last 12 home games with solid offensive production at home during this dozen-game stretch will add to the confidence level at the plate in this one.  All the edges point to the home team and another multi-run margin win here (10 of last 12 Brewers home wins by 2+ runs!). We are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +120 money range with the Brewers. Lay it!

ASA play on Phoenix Mercury +5.5 at Minnesota Lynx, 8 PM ET - In handicapping the Mercury, you can’t look at their full season numbers as Britney Griner missed the early part of the season and they really struggled without her. In their last five games with Griner they are 5th in the league in Net Rating and have won 4 of five games, including a win at home against this same Lynx team. Phoenix is on a 5-0 ATS spread run and are coming off 3 full days of rest so they should be fresh for this rematch. Minnesota has also won 5 straight games and are 3-2 ATS in this stretch, but 3 of those wins came against Atlanta, Dallas and Los Angeles who are really playing poorly right now. Grab the points with the dog.

#225493 ASA PLAY on Belgium -1 (-130) over Romania @ 3 ET - This is a very late release for us - about 2 hours before the game goes but we got the info we wanted and this one shapes up to be a blowout. Even though Romania won 3-0 in their opening match they lost the possession battle and they faced a Ukraine team that is not on par with this Belgium team. As for that Belgium team, being upset - the biggest upset of the first matches played - means they are fully focused on getting back on track here. Belgium will not hold back and this one should see the big favorites jumping to an early lead plus not taking their foot off the gas. Unfortunately for Romania, they are facing the wrong team at the wrong time. This one is all Belgium! Lay it!

ASA top play on Las Vegas Aces -6 vs. Connecticut Sun, 10 PM ET - With over 35-years of experience handicapping, sometimes your betting radar goes completely berserk when you look at the point spread of a game. That’s the case today when the Las Vegas Aces opened a -5.5-point favorite against the Connecticut Sun and were immediately bet up to the current number. The 13-1 Sun are getting this many points against the 7-6 Aces who are .500 at home this season. The Sun has some very favorable statistics as a result of playing one of the easiest schedules to date. They have played just 3 games against teams with winning records this season and one of those was a win against Phoenix who was without Brittney Griner. They split the other two games with a loss to the Liberty and a 1-point home win over Minnesota. The Aces have faced one of the league's tougher schedules this season with a shorthanded lineup until the other night. Las Vegas just got a key component back in the lineup with All-Star guard Chelsea Gray back from an injury. They have won 4 of their last five games with impressive wins over Minnesota and Phoenix in recent weeks. The Aces have one of the best home courts in the W with a 24-6 SU record in their last 30 and were 19-1 SU in the regular season a year ago with an average +/- of +17.6PPG. We like Las Vegas by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Mercury +5.5 vs. NY Liberty, 10 PM ET - This is a solid spot to fade the Liberty and back a Phoenix team that is better than their .500 record. New York is coming off a huge win over the Aces who beat them last season in the Finals and will have a tough time being focused here. If you look at the Mercury’s season statistics, they aren’t good. Phoenix has a negative Net Rating of -5.7, rank 7th in Offensive Net Rating and 11th in Defensive Net Rating. But when you look at their most recent 4 games with Griner back in the lineup they are significantly better with a +3.2 Net Rating. Griner’s impact is evident as she is scoring 22PPG, grabbing 7.8RPG and has 7 blocks on the season. With her in the lineup the Mercury are 3-1 SU with impressive wins over Seattle, Minnesota, Dallas and a close loss to Las Vegas. New York is playing their 5th road game in a six-game stretch making this a difficult scheduling situation. These two teams met on May 29th in New York and the Mercury played close in a 3-point loss without Griner. Don’t be shocked if Phoenix wins this game outright.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - The Mavericks humiliated the Celtics in Game 4 and we expect a bounce back here at home for Boston. The C’s were the 8th best shooting team in the league at 48.4% overall and the 2nd best 3PT shooting team at 38.3%. In the first three games of this series, they shot 45% or better but in Game 4 they hit just 36% overall. Back at home we like Boston to find their range again considering they were the 5th best shooting team in the NBA at home at 49.4%. Dallas had struggled scoring in the first three games, failing to reach 100-points in all three. In Game 4 they exploded for 122 by scoring 30+ in three of the four quarters. We expect a regression in the Mavs shooting here after hitting 51% overall in Game 4 and 41% from Deep. The reserves for Dallas shot well above standards with a combined 11 of 18 from beyond the arc. Boston has an average +/- at home this season of +14.3PPG, best in the league and are 45-6 SU on their home floor. Congratulations to the Boston Celtics for their Championship tonight and we are betting they do it by margin!

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut Sun -6.5 at Dallas Wings, 1 PM ET - This is an early tipoff so be sure to get your action in as soon as possible. At first glance, this line may look high, but in reality, it’s not. We can make a great comparison with recent Wings games when they were at home +6.5 vs. Seattle and lost by 8-points and they were +9 at home against the Aces on June 5th and lost by 14. Connecticut is better than both of those teams in most key statistical categories. The Sun have the 3rd best average point differential per game in the league at +9.6PPG and rank 1st overall in Net Rating Differential at +12.7. Teams are having a tough time scoring on the Sun who have the best Defensive Net Rating in the league at 90.9 and they allow just 71.1PPG. In comparison, the Wings allow the 2nd most points per game on the season at 86PPG and rank 10th in DNR at 104. Connecticut is 2-2 ATS this season as a road favorite but they have covered their two most recent games against the Sky and Dream. Going back 10 games, the Sun are 6-3-1 ATS as a road chalk. Dallas is 0-3 ATS as a home dog this season with all three of those losses coming by more than today’s point spread. Lay it with Connecticut.

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - The Mavs are obviously down 0-2 in the series and in dire need of a win. That doesn’t always mean the team down is going to win, but Dallas is in the Final for a reason and fueled by the home crowd will get a W here. Dallas has had two subpar shooting games in the series, and while some of that can be attributed to the Celtics great defense, we are betting a regression to the norm happens in Game 3. Dallas shot 47.9% on the season overall and 36.8% from beyond the Arc. In the first two games of the season, they are hitting just 44.5% and 24.5% from Deep. In the Playoffs the Mavs have shot 46.7% at home overall and 36.1% from the 3-point line. Boston is perfect on the road in the Playoffs but they also benefitted from playing the Pacers, Cavs and Heat who all had significant injuries. The Celtics had some incredible road results this season including a 33-14 SU away record, but the Mavs are no slouch at home with a 30-19 SU record. Dallas finds their shooting stroke and win Game 3.

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut Sun -7 vs. Chicago Sky, 8 PM ET - Despite what Angel Reese or any other WNBA player might say, fans aren’t coming to watch them, which makes home court much less important. Unless of course Caitlyn Clark is there, then the place is packed. We make that point for this reason. These two teams met on May 25th with the Sun favored by -5 on this court and are now laying more. The Sun won that game by just 4-points so why the move up in the number? The big reason the Sky kept that game close was because of an abnormal shooting night from beyond the Arc at 47%. They won’t duplicate that performance considering they are the 11th worst 3PT shooting team in the WNBA at 28.9%. Connecticut is 10-1 SU on the season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Connecticut is 4th on Offensive Net Rating, 1st in Defensive Net rating. Chicago is 1-4 SU at home this season with the win coming against a bad Sparks team. The Sun are 3-0 SU on the road and after a close win here last visit, we expect a more focused effort here. Lay it!

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx +6.5 vs. Las Vegas Aces, 10 PM ET - The Lynx have been a big surprise this season and off to a 8-3 SU start to the season after finishing 19-21 SU a year ago. Minnesota has two losses by 1-point each and also a 14-point loss to this same Aces team. Las Vegas dominated the WNBA a season ago with a 34-6 SU record in the regular season but are a disappointing 5-4 SU this season. The Aces are a wallet busting 3-6 ATS in their nine games. Minnesota is 9-2 ATS with several impressive wins/covers against Seattle, New York and Connecticut. The Lynx has the third-best Net differential rating in the WNBA at +12.4, compared to the Aces at +4.4. Minnesota is far superior defensively with the 2nd best DNR of 91.2, versus this Aces team that has a Defensive Net Rating of 99.3 which ranks 7th. If we look at each team’s most recent 5-games the Lynx have superior overall statistics. Minnesota has a Net Rating of +19.4 (best in league) in their last five games, compared to the Aces at +1.9. Minnesota has an average +/- in their last five games of +15.4PPG, the Aces have a +/- scoring differential of +1.2PPG in their L5. The Lynx are hitting 45.5% of their field goal attempts in their last five, the Aces are at 40.5%. We like Minnesota to get a small measure of revenge here and potentially win this game outright.

#958 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The White Sox are starting Drew Thorpe.  Not only is the young rookie hurler making his MLB debut, he is skipping AAA ball to make it.  Thorpe has only made 38 appearances in the minors in his career and, though he has had good numbers, his stats were accumulated at the AA and single A levels in the minors!  Jumping all the way up to face major league hitters, and on the road no less, is not an easy task for a young pitcher.  The Mariners will take advantage and we also look for a strong start from Seattle starter Bryan Woo in this one!  Woo has absolutely dominated this season with a 1.07 ERA and a .139 batting average against in his 6 starts!  Woo has struck out 24 and walked just 2 and he has a 0.57 ERA in his 3 home starts this season!  Also, Woo has not allowed a single earned run in his 3 night starts - 0.00 ERA in 16 innings!  The White Sox are 5-27 on the road this season and 8-33 against teams with a winning record!  Also, Seattle is 22-11 at home and Chicago is 12-41 against right-handed starters this season.  78% of White Sox losses (39 of 50) have been by 2 or more goals and we expect another big loss for Chicago again here.  There is a reason Seattle is heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +7 at Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - We are banking on the Mavericks to come out with a better shooting effort to start this critical Game 2. The Mavs couldn’t buy a basket in the 1st quarter and a half and fell behind big to the Celtics in Game 1, trailing by as many as 29 points. Dallas was much better in the 3rd and 4th quarters where they actually outscored the Celtics 24-23 and 23-21. The Mavs shot just 42% overall and 26% from Deep which are both significantly lower than their season averages of 47.9% overall and 36.9% from the 3-point line. Dallas was 24-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss or 64.9% cover rate. We talked about how good the Celtics were at home in our Game 1 prediction, but let’s not forget that the Mavs were 34-17 ATS as a road team this season with a +1.2PPG point differential. We expect Dallas to make adjustments for Porzingis and play at a much higher level in Game 2. Grab the points.

ASA WNBA play on Chicago Sky pick’em to +1.5 vs. Atlanta Dream, 5 PM ET - The wrong team was originally favored in this game as the Dream opened as a -1.5 point favorite, but that has quickly been steamed to the current pick’em line. These two teams have similar statistics including an OEFF (offensive efficiency) for both teams around .994 and a DEFF (defensive efficiency) near 1.000PPP allowed. Chicago has a better overall point differential per game of +0.1 compared to the Dream at -2.8PPG. When it comes to Net Rating the Sky hold and advantage there too with a +0.1 rating versus Atlanta’s -4.0. The big advantage the Sky have in this game is on the O-boards as they rank 2nd in the WNBA in Offensive Rebound Percentage compared to the Dream who rank 11th. Those second chance opportunities will be a huge advantage for the home team Sky. Chicago has made some big improvements this season and the Dream are just 3-7 SU their last 10 on the road. Back the host in this one.

#965 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 9:38 PM ET - The Angels are off of a surprising sweep at home over the Padres. However, Los Angeles entered that series just 7-21 at home this season and we are certainly not sold on this Angels team. They have a very weak lineup and even including their 3-game win streak have scored only 35 runs in their last 13 games - an average of 2.7 runs per game. The Astros had won 3 of 4 games and scored about 6 runs per game prior to a 4-2 loss versus St Louis. Houston has underachieved this season but there is still quality with this team especially in comparison with an Angels team that no longer has Ohtani (now with Dodgers) and is currently without Trout due to injury. We like this revenge spot for Framber Valdez as he was cruising along with a 6-1 lead at home when things suddenly unraveled in a crazy top of the 5th in which the Angels got to him for 7 runs with 4 of those coming with 2 outs in the inning. In his other 4 starts since early May, Valdez has allowed a total of only 6 earned runs. He will be tough here in this revenge spot as, when he is dialed in and focused, he is a tough one on the mound. The Angels counter with Griffin Canning here. He gave up only 3 earned runs but was tagged for 9 hits in his most recent home start. Canning had a 6.13 ERA in his 3 home starts in April. The fact is, Canning has struggled at times in his home starts this season and we look for that again here. As for the bullpens, Astros relievers have a 3.60 ERA this season while the Angels bullpen is one of the worst in the majors with a 4.71 ERA. There is a reason Houston is heavily favored on the road here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at plus money with the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

ASA WNBA play on INDIANA FEVER -2.5 vs Washington Mystics, 7:30 PM ET - This is the strongest play we’ve made this young season as scheduling, along with several other key factors favor the Fever in this match up. Combined these two teams have just 2 wins this season. The Fever tough have played toughest schedule to date in the WNBA, but now 3 days rest coming into tonight. The Mystic are in a very bad scheduling situation playing 3rd game in four nights and second of a B2B. Washington lost at home last night to the Sky 71-79 despite Chicago shooting just 38% overall and going 1 of 14 from beyond the arc. The Mystic turned the ball over 24 times which is not unusual for them as they average 19.7 per 100 possessions, 3rd worst in the league.  Indiana's not as bad as their record because of the schedule. The Fever have an Offensive Efficiency rating of .978 compared to the Mystics .922. In terms of DEFF the Fever allowing 1.143 points per possession, the Mystic allowing 1.052.  The Fever’s defensive numbers are terrible, but they’ve faced New York four times this season who is the most efficient offensive in the W, they played Las Vegas 2nd and Connecticut 4th. Indiana is the better offensive rebounding team, shoots a higher EFG% and turns the ball over less. Washington is 0-3 ATS their last three as a home dog, just two covers in their last seven as a home pooch. Surprisingly, the Fever were a road favorite once this season in LA and won/covered. They are 3-1 ATS their last four laying points on the road. We like the Fever to get their 3rd win of the season by margin.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - In Game 1 we like the home team Celtics minus the points. Boston has been the best team in the NBA the entire season and won their home games by an average of +14.4PPG. The Celts were 21-7 SU versus top 10 teams in the league this season, 31-14 SU against top 16 teams. In comparison, the Mavs were 19-20 SU vs. top 10 teams, 32-29 SU vs, top 16 teams. Granted, the Mavs just rolled through the Western Conference and beat the two best teams in the Conference that had 50+ wins each, but in Game 1 of the Final we expect the host to get it done by margin. Boston is 43-6 SU at home this season and have been favored by less than this spread in just 4 of those games. In three of the four they didn’t have Porzingis and also didn’t have Tatum in one. Dallas is a fantastic road team but is very reliant on two players offensively in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The Celtics have multiple scoring options with all 5 starters capable of scoring 30 on any given night. Boston had one of the three best defenses all season long, allowing 1.116-points per possession in the regular season. Dallas was 18th in the league in DEFF, but also got significantly better after the trade deadline. The advantage the Celtics have is they typically have five players on the floor that can defend multiple positions. Dallas does not and we expect the Celtics to exploit Kyrie defensively. In the NBA Finals, the favorites are on a 12-6 ATS run and home chalks of -4.5 or more points are 20-10 ATS the last 30. In Game 1 at home, we like Boston by double-digits.

#908 ASA PLAY ON St Louis Cardinals -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Thursday at 7:45 PM ET - The Rockies are 8-23 on the road this season and went 22-59 the season before that and went 27-54 the year before that and 26-54 the year before that. Yes Colorado is a disastrous 83-190 in road games since the start of the 2021 season! We love the value here in fading the road-adverse Rockies as the Cardinals appear set to notch a blowout home win in this one. Sonny Gray gets the call for St Louis here and he is 4-1 with a 0.93 ERA in his home starts this season. Opponents are hitting only .167 against him in home starts this season! The Rockies counter with Cal Quantrill and he is 2-4 with a 4.68 ERA in night game outings this season. Last season he was 4-7 with a 5.24 ERA overall for the season. The Rockies have lost 5 straight games overall and are 2-7 in last 9 road games. The Cardinals are on a 14-7 run including wins in 5 straight home games and 7 of last 8 as a host. The Rockies are 1-8 against Central Division teams this season. 30 of the Rockies 40 losses this season have been by a multi-run margin and our computer math model shows this one has most likely a Cards win by 3 runs with a margin of 4 and 2 the next most likely outcomes. Look for the Cardinals to roll big here. Great spot to grab the solid value with the home team at a very fair price offered by laying the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

#964 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Yankees have won 6 straight games and 23 of 29. Like the Phillies in the NL, the Yankees have been the red hot team in the AL. Of course this is why the Yankees are a heavily priced home favorite here. The value comes into play in looking at the run line and that is available at +110 in the market place and is a great value when you look at recent margin of victory results for the Yankees. 21 of the Yankees last 22 wins have been by at least 2 runs! As the money line (in 190 range) shows you, the Yankees are likely to make it 7 straight wins here. As the 21 of 22 stat shows you, the Yankees are also likely to have that victory come by a multi-run margin! These teams matched up in Minnesota in mid-May and Chris Paddack faced Carlos Rodon in one of the games in that series. The Yankees and Rodon won that game 5 to 1. Not only that, Paddack allowed 12 hits in 5 innings and Rodon allowed only 6 hits in 6 innings. We look for dominance again in the rematch. Paddack has a .287 batting average against this season and has been in that range each of the last 3 seasons. Rodon has a .222 batting average against this season and it is .233 in his career. He is 7-2 this season and has been particularly dominant at home with a 3-0 record and a 2.13 ERA! The Twins have lost 11 of 20 including losing 6 of last 10 on the road. The Yankees have won all 4 games against the Twins this season and with big edges in this one, a home blowout is our call. We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a comeback price in the +110 range with the Yankees. Great spot to grab the solid value with the hot team at plus money with the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

ASA WNBA top play on Seattle Storm -7 vs. Phoenix Mercury, 10 PM ET - This is a case of two teams heading in opposite directions as the Storm are playing well having won 4 straight games, while the Mercury are 1-4 SU in their last five. Phoenix has some holes in their lineup without Griner and Allen and it’s shown in recent results. The Storm on the other hand have found a rhythm with free-agent additions in Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike starting to gel. Seattle is 6th in the WNBA in offensive efficiency, Phoenix is 7th. The big separator is defensive as the Storm rank 3rd in the league allowing just .97-points per possession compared to the Sun who allow 1.060PPP which is 11th out of twelve teams. Even after a 1-3 SU start, the Storm still have a +4.2PPG differential and +1.7RPG plus/minus. Phoenix on the other hand have a negative average differential of minus -6.8PPG and get out-rebounded by -1.2RPG. Seattle is 4-1 ATS as a favorite in their last five games. Phoenix is 0-4 ATS as a Dog of +8.5-points or less in their last four. The Storm are also in a much better scheduling situation here as they have been off since May 30th while the Mercury are playing their 5th game in an 8-day span. Lay the points.

ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings +8 at Minnesota Lynx, 7 PM ET - This line immediately grabbed our attention as our model suggests this number is higher than it should be in the Lynx favor. A great comparison can be made with a recent Lynx game in which they faced a struggling Phoenix team and were favored at home by this same margin. Dallas is significantly better than the Mercury right now as the Wings have a Net Rating of +1.4 compared to the Mercury’s -9.5. Dallas has covered 5 of six games this season and has a Net point differential of +1.3PPG. The Wings have wins versus Chicago, Phoenix and the Sparks and have closes losses to the Sun by 2-poitns and the Dream by 5-points. Their biggest loss of the season was by nine points, so they’ve been highly competitive in every game this season. Minnesota is coming off a blowout win over Mercury and are 5-2 SU to start the season. The Lynx has the 2nd best point differential in the WNBA at +8.7PPG and rely on their defense which is the best in the league in Defensive Net Rating. Dallas is more than capable offensively with the 4th best Offensive Net Rating and will be competitive in this game from start to finish.

#201202 ASA PLAY ON Atalanta -1 -115 over Fiorentina, Sunday at Noon ET - This one in Serie A action and it is the season finale for the league. We like the value of the goal line here. Atalanta is a huge favorite on the money line but we lay a small price to have them at -1 goal. The moods of these two clubs entering the season finale are drastically different. Fiorentina off disappointment in other European competition while Atalanta finished with great success with the win over Bayer Leverkusen. That combined with a season finale on home pitch and also a goal differential of 40 to 13 in home matches means the hosts are a great play here considering the motivational factors. These teams are at two different ends of the spectrum right now in terms of emotions. Fiorentina likely "mailing it in" for this season finale. Take Atlanta on Sunday afternoon.

#224201 ASA PLAY ON Borussia Dortmund +1 -125 over Real Madrid, Saturday at 3 ET - This one in Champions League action and it is the big one as it is the Champions League Final. We like the value of the goal line here. Real Madrid is a big favorite on the money line based on their Championship pedigree but this Borussia Dortmund team has been very impressive. We will grab the value of the +1 goal on the goal line here as we can get involved at a reasonable price. As strong as Real Madrid has been, only 12 of last 35 games have been wins by a multi-goal margin. This is why there is such value in looking at the goal line here. This Borussia Dortmund club has been so strong that they will be tough to beat let alone to defeat by a multi-goal margin! Borussia Dortmund has just 5 losses by more than a goal in their last 57 games. We feel they match up well and can frustrate Real Madrid with strong defensive play. Take Borussia Dortmund on Saturday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - Every game in this series has been tightly contested with margins of 3, 1, 9 and 5-points. Dallas has been a great road team all season long and Super Stars Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic won’t be fazed by the big game environment. The Mavs off a loss were one of the best spread record teams in the league this season with a 23-13 ATS record, and they won those games outright by an average of +2.7PPG. In the playoffs, prior to tonight’s situation, they lost 4 games and, in each instance, came back to win the following game. In fact, the Mavs won all four of those games on the road! The Wolves haven’t shot it especially well in this series at 46.5%, and it took a 53% night in Game 4, compared to the Mavs 42% to gain a 5-point win. Karl Anthony Towns has been in a shooting slump this series but made 4 of 5 in Game 4. We don’t expect him to have another game like that, as the previous 3-games he was 3 of 22 from beyond the Arc. At the end of the day, we trust Luka/Kyrie much more than any combination of Wolves players and expect another tight game that goes down to the wire. Grab whatever points are available.

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks +4.5 at Chicago Sky, 8 PM ET - These two teams are nearly identical statistically this season with Chicago holding a slight advantage in Offensive Net Ratings and Defensive Net Rating. The Sparks are the much better shooting team at 44.09% overall and 37.31% from Deep. Chicago shoots it at 42.06% from the field and 32.56% from beyond the arc. Underdogs have done extremely well this season in the WNBA with a 23-13 ATS record and the Sparks have covered 8 of their last eleven on the road. Chicago is a young team and just 1-4 SU their last five home games. Chicago hasn’t been a Chalk yet this season so grab the value with the Sparks.

ASA WNBA top play on Minnesota Lynx +4.5 vs. Las Vegas Aces, 8 PM ET - The Lynx have been a big surprise this season and off to a 4-1 SU start to the season after finishing 19-21 SU a year ago. Las Vegas dominated the WNBA a season ago with a 34-6 SU record in the regular season and are 3-1 this season, but they have been less than impressive. The Aces are 1-3 ATS with their only cover coming against the Fever who were in a horrible scheduling situation. Minnesota is 5-0 ATS with several impressive wins/covers against Seattle, New York and Connecticut. The Lynx has the second-best Net differential rating in the WNBA at +11.6, compared to the Aces at +7.5. Minnesota is far superior defensively with the best DNR of 91.2, versus this Aces team that has a Defensive Net Rating of 102.4 which ranks 8th. The Lynx has a +10.2PPG differential this season and have won both home games this season. Las Vegas will be playing their first road game of the year and are overpriced in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota T’Wolves +2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - Minnesota had a fantastic road record this season at 31-16 SU with the second-best average margin of victory at +5.1PPG. The Wolves have been a much better team on the road than at home in the postseason with a 5-1 SU record and a +8.1PPG differential. Dallas is 4-2 SU at home in the playoffs and were 29-18 SU during the regular season with an average +/- of plus 3.6PPG. We are betting the Wolves don’t have a shooting performance like they did in the first two games of this series at 42% considering they shot 48.2% on the season which was 10th best in the NBA. The Wolves were the 3rd best 3PT shooting team at 38.3% and Dallas was 18th in the NBA in defending the Arc. The Mavs were also 20th in the NBA in overall team FG% defense so expect positive regression from Minnesota in Game 3. There is positive support for teams down 0-2 in the Conference Finals and we expect Minny to rebound here with a win.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* Atlanta Dream -3.5 vs Minnesota Lynx, 6 PM ET - This is a tough scheduling situation for the Lynx who are coming off a game last night against New York and had to travel to Atlanta for the second night of a back-to-back. This will also be their 3rd game in a four-day span. Two other WNBA teams have fallen into this scheduling scenario this season, and both have been blown out by double-digits. Atlanta is 2-1 SU this season with a road win against the Sparks, a close loss to Phoenix and a home win against Dallas. Minnesota is 3-1 SU with a pair of wins over Seattle, a road loss to Connecticut and a win last night versus the Liberty. Minnesota’s has the best defensive Net rating in the NBA but that number is somewhat misleading considering they played the Storm twice who are last in the league in offensive Net rating. Atlanta’s strength is their offense as they rank 5th in Net rating at 105.3 which is significantly higher than the Lynx at 95.9. Atlanta won 2 of three last year versus the Lynx and with the tough schedule situation we like the Dream to get another W here.

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks +1.5 vs Indiana Fever, 10 PM ET - Our model as the Sparks favored at home here so we will gladly take the points with the better team. Indiana is 0-5 SU on the season, the Sparks are 1-2 SU. Los Angeles was recently a 2-point favorite at home in their most recent game, which was a win over Washington, who we grade slightly better than the Fever. L.A.’s two losses have come against an improved Atlanta team and the Champs from a season ago on the road in Las Vegas. Indiana has faced a tough early season slate themselves and have lost two straight close games to Connecticut and Seattle. The Sparks will have the two best players on the floor in Derica Hamby who is averaging 22PPG, 13.7 RPG and 2.0SPG and has a pair of double-doubles this season. Kia Nurse is averaging 16.3PPG on 54.5% shooting overall and 45% from beyond the Arc. Her 3PT% is second best in the league among players with 6 or more 3PT attempts per game. L.A. has won 8 of the last ten meetings outright with the Fever and we like them to get a W at home tonight.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, Game 2, 8:30 PM ET - We like the Wolves to bounce back here after their Game 1 loss to the Mavs. The T’Wolves are 23-6 SU this season when coming off a loss, 17-12 ATS with a double-digit average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Minnesota had the 4th best average point differential at home this season at +8.1PPG. The Wolves have lost back-to-back home games just 3 times this entire season so we’re betting it doesn’t happen here. In Game 1 the Wolves shot 43% overall and 37% from Deep. Those numbers are well below their season averages of 48.3% and 38.3%. Dallas on the other hand shot well at 49% overall but struggled from beyond the Arc at 24%. Minnesota was the best defensive team in the league this season and held opponents to 45.1% shooting which was 1st. in the NBA. The Mavs also enjoy a +8 rebound margin in Game 1 which is unlikely to happen tonight considering the Wolves had the 7th best rebound percentage in the league versus Dallas who was 23rd. Dallas gained home court advantage with their Game 1 win so a letdown here would not surprise us. Back the Timberwolves at home.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 over Indiana Pacers, Tuesday 8 PM ET - In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals we expect a blowout win by the home team Celtics. Boston is 41-6 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +14.6PPG. Going back another full season the Celtics stand 78-21 SU at home +11.5PPG. Boston opened their series up against the Heat in the first round with a 20-point win. In the first game of round 2 versus the Cavs the C’s won by 25. The Celtics big advantage in this match up in their defense. Indiana can’t simply outscore their opponent in this round as the Celtics were better than the Pacers in offensive efficiency this season. Defensively it’s not close as Boston had the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating compared to Indiana who ranked 24th. Indiana is a great story in the playoffs but let’s face it, they beat a Bucks team without Giannis and Lillard missed 2 games and wasn’t 100%. The Pacers then faced a Knicks team without 3 regular season starters and then Hart and Brunson both got hurt. Indiana was 23-26 SU on the road this season and have a short turnaround here after that brutally tough 7-game series with the Knicks. When playing with a rest advantage the Celtics are 26-3 SU this season, 16-12-1 ATS with those wins coming by +14.8PPG. Indiana was 7-10 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage this season. Boston in a Game 1 runaway win!

#920 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Angels rallied from a 6-1 deficit yesterday in a 9-7 win.  The Astros were 9-2 last 11 games prior to yesterday's loss.  Houston is 3-0 L3 games when they are coming off a loss.  The Angels are 0-3 L3 games when they have entered a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games.  Los Angeles is starting Griffin Canning here and he is 0-4 with a 6.64 ERA when pitching on the road this season.  The Astros are starting Cristan Javier here and he is 3-0 with an 0.75 ERA in his 4 starts at home this season.  Javier is 33-18 with a 3.55 ERA in his MLB career.  The Angels continued their big success (7-2 YTD) against left-handed starters with yesterday's upset win.  However, LA is 12-27 against right-handed starters this season.  The Astros have the bullpen edge here as well with an ERA ranking middle of MLB while the Angels bullpen ERA is among the worst in the major league.  Houston is hitting .274 in home games this season and that ranks at the top of the majors!  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -105 range with the Astros.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* Connecticut Sun -4 at Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - These two teams met in the opener with the Sun favored by -6.5 points at home over the Fever. Connecticut won that game 92-71 on 48% shooting overall, 43% from the 3-point line, were +2 in rebounds and had 10 less turnovers. It's a small sample size but the Fever have the worse Defensive Net rating in the league at 115.9 and the worst overall Net rating of minus -28.7. Caitlyn Clark is obviously a very special talent offensively, but she hasn't improved the Fever's defense which was 11th of out twelve teams a year ago. The Sun were the 2nd best defensive team in the WNBA a year ago and currently rank 3rd in DNR at 90.8. Connecticut has a positive Net rating of +17.8, are 2-0 SU this season with wins of +19 and +7. The Sun were 14-6 SU on the road last season, the Fever were 6-14 SU at home. The Sun have now beaten this Indiana team 9 straight times with the three most recent coming by 16, 17 and 19-points. Lay it with the road favorite.

ASA WNBA play on #616 Washington Mystics +5.5 vs Seattle Storm, 3 PM ET - The Storm have underachieved this season with an 0-2 ATS record as they’ve been overpriced in both games this season. The Storm were favored by -7.5 points in the season opener and lost by 13 outright. In Game 2 of the season, they were favored by -1.5 at Minnesota and lost again by 9-points. Washington is the exact reverse. The Mystic are 0-2 SU but have covered both games of the season against two of the leagues better teams in New York and Connecticut. Washington played the Liberty extremely well in the season opener losing by just 5-points at home as a +11.5-point underdog. On Friday they traveled to Connecticut to face the Sun and lost by 7 as an 8-point pooch. Last season the Mystic beat this Storm team three times by +7, +6 and +7. The wrong team is favored here and we like the host to win this game outright.