#220 ASA PLAY ON UTSA -11 over Coastal Carolina, Monday at 11 AM ET - This line has been climbing and for good reason. UTSA opened around a TD favorite and now is laying -11 to -11.5 range. This game is actually being played on Coastal’s home field but we don’t expect any advantage here on a Monday morning, a few days prior to Xmas, with the students already on break. The atmosphere won’t favor CC in this game. In fact, we’d argue that playing at home might not be great as players like to travel on visit other cities and venues for bowl games. Playing at home might not be a motivator for the CC players. The ones that remain that is. Coastal has been hit as hard as any bowl team in regards to transfers, opt outs, etc… They will be without their top 2 QB’s including starter Vasko leaving them with 2 freshman who have yet to play in a game in their careers. The Chanticleers have a number of other starters / key players that are moving on and won’t be playing in this game as well. After struggling down the stretch as well losing 5 of their last 7 games, it seems like they have called it a season so to speak. UTSA was rising a the end of the season winning 4 of their last 6. They are coming into this one off a loss to end the season @ Army in a tight game (29-24) vs a very good team. They’ll have a huge edge at QB here with starting McCown who threw for over 3,000 yards and 24 TD’s on an offense that averaged 32 PPG on the season. Down the stretch the Roadrunner offense was even more potent topping 40 points in 4 of their last 5 games. UTSA head coach Traylor said while they do have some players in the portal, he expects most of his team to be available and play in this game. UTSA seems to be all in as opposed to CC. We’re not sure Coastal can keep up offensively here. Lay it.

#753 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -3 over Missouri, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Missouri is 10-1 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country ranking 361st in SOS out of 364 teams.  They’ve faced only 2 top 100 teams all season and the Tigers have also played 10 straight home games.  Their only game away from home was a loss @ Memphis to start the season.  7 of their 11 opponents this season currently rank 255th or lower.  Illinois is 7-3 on the year but they’ve faced the 71st most difficult schedule to date with their losses coming vs Bama & Tennessee (2 top 10 teams) and @ Northwestern in OT in a game the Illini led by double digits in the 2nd half.  Their most recent game was a 66-64 home loss vs #1 Tennessee losing a layup as time expired by the Vols.  The Illini have had a full week to get over that tough loss and get ready for this game.  These 2 rank nearly identical in offensive efficiency yet Illinois is far better on the defensive end (12th in defensive efficiency to 103rd for Mizzou) despite playing the much tougher schedule as we referenced earlier.  Illinois is also the much better rebounding team and they keep opponents off the foul line which is where Mizzou has lived thus far ranking 25th in percentage of points from the FT line.  This game is played on a neutral site in St Louis and last season Illinois throttled Missouri by 24 points.  The Illini are still a top 20 team (per KenPom) and while the Tigers have improved, they were 8-24 last year so how much have they improved?  It’s really hard to tell as they’ve been at home all season and only played a few good teams.  We’ll lay the small number with the team we know is solid, that’s Illinois.

#708 ASA PLAY ON Kentucky -8.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET - OSU will be shorthanded here with starting PG Johnson out. The Buckeyes are 7-4 on the season and they’ve been poor when stepping up in competition. They’ve faced 4 teams this season ranked in the top 35 (per KenPom) and they’ve lost those games by 38, 24, 14, and 1 point (1 point loss was AT HOME vs Pitt). The Buckeyes have had a rough go offensive away from home (road or neutral) averaging just 64 PPG including getting held under 60 points twice. That’s a huge difference compared to their home splits where they average 90 PPG on the season. 5 of OSU’s 7 wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200 all but 1 of their 7 wins have come at home. Kentucky has 1 loss on the season @ Clemson and they have 4 top 100 wins including topping Duke and Gonzaga, 2 top 6 teams per KenPom. They Buckeye offense relies pretty heavily on the 3 point shot (almost 35% of their points come from deep) but they are facing a Wildcat defense that ranks 12th nationally defending the arc allowing only 27%. The Kentucky defense has allowed opponents to make only 39% of their shot this year so we expect OSU to have problems on offense. Offensively the Wildcats lead the nation in scoring at 91 PPG and they rank 8th nationally in offensive efficiency. OSU’s defense has allowed 83 PPG vs the 5 top 100 teams they’ve faced. We don’t think the Buckeyes can keep up offensively here. Lay it with Kentucky.

#216 ASA PLAY ON Texas -12.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Clemson is lucky to be here as they have not been great this season. They’ve beaten the low level teams but struggled with the teams on their schedule that were solid. The 4 best teams they played this season (Georgia, Louisville, SMU, and South Carolina), the Tigers lost 3 of those game including 2 at home. Their lone win in that bunch was topping SMU 34-31 in the ACC Championship game and even in that one, Clemson was outgained by 130 yards. Our power rating have the Longhorns as the best team in the nation despite their 5 seed in the CFP. Their 2 losses both came vs Georgia but the fact is they outplayed the Bulldogs statistically this season. In their first loss they Horns were outgained by 22 yards and in their tight loss in the SEC Championship game, Texas outgained UGA by more than 100 yards. They had 7 turnovers in those 2 games which cost them a chance at an undefeated season. When Clemson played Georgia this season, they lost by 31 points and were outgained by 265 yards. The Tigers defense is the worst they’ve had in over a decade ranking outside the top 40 in total defense, YPP allowed and PPG allowed. Meanwhile the Texas defense is ranked in the top 5 in each of those key categories despite playing the tougher schedule. Since the CFP started in 2014, there have been 8 teams favored by double digits and those teams are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS. Texas is the MUCH better team in this game and they are at home. This feels like a 2 TD+ win for the Horns. Lay it.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -3 over Northern Iowa, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Las Vegas. Washington State has the better record (9-3 compared to 7-4 for UNI) and they’ve played the much tougher slate thus far. Wazzou’s strength of schedule is ranked 84th while Northern Iowa has played the 258th ranked SOS so far. This line is lower than it should be according to our power ratings and that’s because UNI has won 4 straight games in blowout fashion vs teams ranked 205th, 353rd, 303rd, and 213th. The Panthers haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 100 and 6 of their 7 wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200. Washington State’s 3 losses this season have all come vs teams inside the top 100 (Iowa, SMU, and Washington). The Cougars are coming off a loss @ Washington on Wednesday giving them a little extra motivation here. Unlike UNI, the Cougars have already beaten 3 top 100 teams including Boise State on the road, Nevada on the road, and Bradley at home. Northern Iowa has done most of their damage at home but on the road (away or neutral) they are just 1-3 on the season with their only win coming vs Illinois Chicago. The Panthers lead the nation in FG% and they are #2 in 3 point FG% hitting at numbers that are not sustainable. Their 4 game winning streak has come vs poor opponents that all rank outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. Now they face a Washington State defense that ranks 87th in that category. We like Wazzou to cover this small number in Las Vegas on Saturday.

#103 ASA NFL PLAY ON Houston Texans +3.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday at 1 PM ET - The Chiefs are clearly not the dominant team they have been in the past, but they still stand 13-1 SU on the season. Kansas City has an average Margin of Victory of +5.0PPG (11th) which is insanely low for a team with 13 wins this season. KC is averaging 5.1YPP on the season which ranks 24th in the NFL. In their last 3 games they have managed just 4.5YPP against three defenses that allow 5.3YPP or more on the season. Last Sunday against a Browns defense that allows 5.6YPP the Chiefs struggled offensively with a 4.1YPP average. The Houston Texans have one of the top defenses in terms of EPA, DVOA and overall efficiency rankings. The Texans allow the 3rd fewest YPP at 4.9, have the 11best rushing defenses in terms of total yards allowed and rank 6th in passing yards allowed. Houston allows the 9th fewest points per game at 21.4ppg. Houston has a below average offense this season in most key statistical categories ranking 20th in YPP, 17th in rushing YPG and 19th in passing YPG, but they still manage to score on average 23.4ppg (13th). Kansas City’s defense has shown some holes in recent weeks allowing more yards per play in their last three games (5.5YPP) compared to their season average of 5.2. Houston has 4 less wins on the season, yet their average MOV of +2.0ppg is not much less than KC’s. With Mahomes not 100% for this game with an ankle injury and a stout Texans defense we will gladly fade the Chiefs who are 1-7 ATS their last eight games.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat +1.5 vs OKC Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - The NBA schedule makers didn’t do the Thunder any favors with this second game in two nights for the Thunder after playing in Vegas in the Cup Finals against the Bucks. Miami is 4-1 SU their last five games with their most recent being a 1-point loss in Detroit. Prior to that the Heat won 4 straight at home with quality wins against the Raptors, Cavs, Suns and Lakers. In fact, the Heat are 7-1 SU their last seven home games and the lone loss was by 3-points to the red-hot Bucks. If we take a closer look at Miami and their last 5 games, we see they have the second-best Net rating in that stretch of games. The team ahead of them in that stat category is the OKC Thunder but again this is a tough spot for them coming off a game against Orlando last night. Miami has a profitable spread record when playing with a rest advantage of 13-10 ATS dating back to last season and they’ve won those games by an average of +5.4ppg. Miami is also 7-3 ATS this season when coming off a loss. It’s tough to bet against OKC but we’ll make an exception tonight and take Miami.

#748 ASA PLAY ON Utah Tech +2.5 over South Dakota, Thursday at 9 PM ET - South Dakota steps into this game with a 9-4 record facing a 3-10 Utah Tech team and yet the Coyotes are only favored by 2.5 (opening line)? Looks pretty easy to grab South Dakota here but we’re on Utah Tech. The Coyotes record has been partly a product of their schedule. They’ve faced the 316th most difficult slate this season with 8 of their 13 games coming at home. On the road, this team is just 1-4 SU on the season with their only win coming @ Western Michigan (3-7 current record) by 4 points in a game WMU shot 18% from 3 and took 10 fewer FT attempts. Going back further, this South Dakota team has simply been terrible on the road winning just 5 of their last 32 dating back to the start of the 2022 season. Tough to consider them when favored on the road. On top of that, laying points on the road with a terrible defense is not ideal. The Coyotes 349th in defensive efficiency (out of 364 teams) and they rank 328th defending the arc. Tough to win on the road this those numbers on the defensive end. Utah Tech as a bad record but they’ve also faced the 67th most difficult schedule which is a huge jump from what South Dakota has faced. They’ve also only played 4 homes games and 9 road games this season. One of their top players, Beon Riley (14 PPG & 8 RPG) has missed the last few games and they are thinking they’ll have him back here. We’ll take the points here and call for Utah Tech to win this one outright.

#124 ASA PLAY ON LA Chargers -2.5 over Denver Broncos, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This is a crucial game in the AFC West between the 9-5 SU Broncos and the 8-6 SU Chargers as they battle for a spot to get into the postseason. These two teams have been undervalued by the oddsmakers this season as they have a combined 20-8 ATS record. The Broncos come into this game on a 4-game winning streak, but those W’s have come against Atlanta, Las Vegas, Cleveland and Indianapolis who aren’t elite level competition. Denver beat the Colts last week despite gaining just 3.2 Yards Per Play offensively, 193 total yards and 13 first downs. Indianapolis actually outgained the Broncos by +1.1YPP despite the lopsided final score. That seems to be a theme for Denver as they were outplayed the week before by the Browns but still managed to win 41-32. A true indication of how Denver is playing is the YPP differential of minus -0.5 over their last 3 games against three bad teams. The Chargers have faced a daunting schedule of late with a pair of big home games against the Bengals then Ravens followed by two road games at Atlanta and Kansas City, then Tampa Bay at home last week. The Chargers were thoroughly embarrassed last Sunday by the Buccaneers 17-40, getting outgained by over 300+ yards. We are betting the well-coached Chargers will bounce back this week after that humbling loss. LA was favored by 3-points earlier this season in Denver and won 23-16 with a 350 to 316 yardage advantage. The Chargers were up 23-0 into the 4th quarter before the Broncos scored a meaningless 16-points. If this game comes down to Justin Herbert or Bo Nix who do you trust more to get you a win and likely cover in the process. We’ll take Herbert.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:10 PM ET - Utah is clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA AGAIN this season and the Pistons have improved significantly after their 14 wins season a year ago. The Jazz have lost 14 of their last 16 games and 10 of those losses have been by six points or more. Utah has a negative scoring margin of -10.6ppg which is the 28th highest number in the NBA. Utah is the worst defensive team in the league in terms of Efficiency rating allowing 1.215-points per possession. The Jazz are 29th in opponents FG% defense at 48.7%, 26th in 3PT% allowed at 37.4% and have given up an average of 121.8ppg over their last 10 games. Detroit is slightly below average in terms of Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating despite facing a difficult schedule. The Pistons are coming off a confidence building win against the Heat at home in their most recent game and we are betting that momentum will carry over here against a bad Jazz team.

#706 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over VCU, Thursday at 9 PM ET - VCU is 9-2 on the season but they’ve played one of the easier schedules on the country (301st SOS per KenPom).  They’ve faced on only 2 top 100 teams this season (1-1 record) and 8 of their 9 wins have come vs teams that rank 150th or lower.  On top of that, this is their first true road game of the season as they head to the Pit, one of the tougher places to play in the country.  New Mexico hasn’t left home this entire month while VCU played in Vegas on Saturday vs Colorado State and now travel to Albuquerque for this one.  The Lobos have played the more difficult schedule to date and have already beaten 2 top 100 teams (UCLA and USC both on neutral courts).  VCU’s defensive numbers for the season are solid, however, they’ve faced only 2 top 100 offense (efficiency) so far this season and they split those 2 games beating Miami FL and losing to Nevada.  Tonight they face a potent New Mexico offense that is averaging nearly 90 PPG (8th best scoring offense in the nation).  VCU thrives at turning teams over leading to extra possessions but New Mexico has done a very good job at protecting the ball (70th in offensive turnover rate) so that may not work tonight on the road.  The Lobos have won 19 of their last 23 home games and this is a huge game for them with 3 of their next 4 coming on the road.  Lay the small spread with New Mexico.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks – Cup Finals 8:30 PM ET - If you have paid attention to our preseason suggestions, we like the Thunder to win it all this season. They had one of the best rosters in the league, one of the 5 very best players, and then went out and added a few key pieces. The Bucks got off to a slow start but are playing extremely well right now and look like a contender in the East. OKC has the best average scoring margin in the NBA at +12.1PPG, +11.8PPG on the road. Milwaukee is +1.4PPG overall on the season, -2.2PPG on the road. We mention the road differentials as this is a neutral site game in Las Vegas but do expect more Thunder fans in attendance. OKC is 1st in Defensive Efficiency and 8th in Offensive Efficiency this season. The Bucks on the other hand rank 14th in DEFF, 10th in OEFF. The Bucks have gone 12-3 SU their last fifteen games, but a closer look shows only 4 of those wins came against teams with a current winning record. OKC on the other hand has gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games with wins over teams such as the Rockets, Mavericks, Lakers, Warriors and Kings. The Bucks are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA defending point guards and Alexander for the Thunder should have a big night. OKC on the other hand allows the fewest point to power forwards in the NBA and will make Giannis work for every point. Bucks 0-6 SU against top 5 rated teams this season. Lay the points with the Thunder.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Ohio St -21.5 over Valparaiso, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - OSU will be looking to smack someone here after getting blasted by Auburn 91-53 on Saturday in Atlanta. The Bucks have shown good bounce back ability when facing inferior opponents this year. Prior to their loss on Saturday, they were twice beaten by double digits on the road this season @ Texas A&M and @ Maryland and turned around the next game and beat Evansville by 30 and Rutgers by 14. OSU has also shown this season that when tabbed a big favorite, they have no problem burying teams. They have been a chalk of -19 or higher 4 times this season and covered all 4 by an average of more than 10 PPG. They were favored by anywhere from -19 to -25 in those 4 games and the average final score in those blowout wins was 92-51. Valpo has a 5-4 record on the season but they’ve faced the 342nd most difficult schedule per KenPom. Their only true road game was a 19 point loss @ DePaul in a game they trailed by 25 with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game. The Crusaders have faced only 2 teams all season ranked inside the top 200 (both losses) and OSU is the best team they’ve played this year by a wide margin. The Buckeyes rank inside the top 30 in both offensive and defensive eFG% while Valpo ranks outside the top 285 in both those statistics despite facing one of the easier schedules in the country. OSU’s losses have come all vs top 30 teams (Auburn, Maryland, Pitt, and Texas A&M) and Valparaiso has been terrible on the road winning just once in their last 19 true roadies. This has blowout written all over it.

#607 ASA PLAY ON Clemson -2.5 over South Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Clemson has the better record in this one despite playing the much tougher schedule.  The Tigers are 9-2 on the season and they’ve faced the 75th most difficult schedule to date.  Their losses have come @ Boise State and in OT on Saturday vs Memphis.   The Tigers have wins over Kentucky, Penn State, and Miami FL (all top 100 teams).  The Gamecocks are 7-3 but they’ve faced the 261st most difficult slate thus far.  They don’t have a win vs anyone in the top 140 and in their 2 games vs top 100 teams, they lost both by 16 vs Indiana and by 9 vs Xavier, both rated lower than this Clemson team.  South Carolina also already has a home loss vs North Florida who was the highest rated team they’ve faced at home thus far.  The Tigers have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court and they are the much better rebounding team.  If this one is tight late, FT’s could be key in who wins this one and Clemson shoots 74% from the stripe compared to 66% for South Carolina.  Clemson has won 5 of the last 7 in this in-state rivalry including 2 of the last 3 @ South Carolina.  The Tigers should play with a little extra edge here coming off their OT loss vs a very good Memphis team who had wins over UConn, Michigan State, and Missouri prior to squeaking one out on Saturday @ Clemson.  We like the Tigers laying the small number. 

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 10:30 PM ET - We don’t make a habit of betting on big favorites in the NBA but will make an exception tonight with the Clippers at home against the Jazz. The Clippers have lost three straight games, but the losses have come against Minnesota, Houston and Denver, three of the better teams in the West. They are about to embark on a very tough road trip with games at Dallas twice and then Memphis which makes winning this game more important than usual. Prior to the 3-game losing streak this Clipper team hosted the Blazers who grade similarly to this Jazz team and beat them by 22-points as a -8.5-point favorite. The 5-win Jazz are a mess right now having lost 7 of their last eight games and are just 3-9 SU away from home this season. Utah has an average loss margin of -8.8ppg on the road this season which is 28th most in the NBA. The big separator for these teams is their defenses. The Clippers rank 7th in Defensive efficiency allowing just t1.097-points per possession. The Jazz on the other hand is allowing 1.199PPP which is second most in the league. The Clippers have won 3 of the last four meetings with the Jazz by 11 or more points and our model is projecting a +14 win tonight. Lay the points with the LA Clippers.

ASA NFL play on Atlanta Falcons -5.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 8:30 PM ET - We have more faith in Falcons QB Kirk Cousins here than we do with a less than 100% QB Aidan O’Connell for the Raiders. Cousins has deservedly received a ton of criticism lately with 6 INT’s and 0 TD’s in the past two weeks. In his defense, those two games came against the Vikings and Chargers who both rank top 9 in yards per play allowed and top 10 in opponents completion percentage. The Vikings and Chargers pass defense is 1st and 6th in Interception percentage so some of Cousins' poor play can be attributed to the teams he’s faced. The Falcons are in a desperate situation here but still have playoff aspirations, trailing the Bucs by a game in the NFC South. The Raiders on the other hand are done for the season with a 2-11 SU record and playing for a future franchise QB in the NFL draft. The Raiders will be without defensive end Maxx Crosby here who is done for the season. Las Vegas relied heavily on their pass rush to make up for a below average pass defense. The Raiders are 15th in passing yards allowed, 21st in completion percentage allowed and 25th in opposing quarterbacks QBR. If the Falcons/Cousins avoid turnovers we expect a lopsided game for Atlanta who ranks 8th in total yards per game, 12th in yards per play, 2nd in passing yards per game and is 12th in rushing. The Raiders are a bottom ten team in total yards per game gained, rank 27th in yards per play and last in rushing yards per game. The Falcons defense isn’t great but they shouldn’t have a problem slowing down this Raiders offense with either O’Connell or Ridder playing QB.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 7 PM ET - You may be shocked to know that these two teams have nearly identical records at 13-11 for the Wolves and 13-12 for San Antonio. Minnesota got off to a slow start this season with the subtraction of KAT and the additions of Randle and DiVincenzo but have found a groove in recent weeks. Minnesota is 5-1 SU their last six games with the lone loss at Golden State. They have covered 4 of their last five games with impressive wins over the Clippers, Warriors and Lakers. San Antonio has won two straight games but don’t be misled by those results as the wins came against the 5-21 Pelicans and 8 win Blazers. Prior to those two wins the Spurs had lost to Phoenix, Chicago and Sacramento. Minnesota is playing better as evidenced by their Net Rating of +5.3 in their last 10 games compared to the Spurs Net Rating of -3.6 over that same period. If we look at each team's most recent 5-games we see the Wolves have a decisive advantage in Net Ratings of +15.3 (3rd best in NBA) versus the Spurs -9.8 (25th). San Antonio upset the Wolves early in the season when Minnesota was trying to figure things out. The Timberwolves are in a much better place now and won’t look past this San Antonio team with essentially the same record.

#475 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Chargers offense has really been struggling as of late failing to reach 300 total yards in 3 straight games while averaging only 4.7 YPP during that stretch. If we subtract their defensive TD’s over the last 3 weeks, this offense is only averaging 16.6 PPG. Tough to lay points with a team that struggles to score. We don’t see that changing here as they have a bunch of injuries on that side of the ball. Starting QB Herbert injured his ankle last week @ KC and didn’t practice until Thursday and was limited at that point. He’ll play but won’t be 100%. His top RB Dobbins was put on IR a few weeks ago, top WR McConkey didn’t play last week and was limited in practice this week, and top TD Dissly will miss the next few weeks. Those injuries really limit this offense that wasn’t great to begin with. On Sunday they are facing one of the top offenses in the NFL as Tampa averages 28 PPG (5th in the league). Their offense has scored 30, 28, and 26 points the last 3 weeks while averaging 6.6 YPP. The Bucs rank in the top 10 in total offense, YPP, rushing yards, and passing YPG. The Chargers defense has solid overall numbers, however they’ve only faced 3 top 10 offenses this season and they allowed 27+ points in 2 of those 3 match ups. Tampa has the better YPP margin (+0.4 to +0.1) despite playing the tougher schedule. LAC is off a huge division game last week @ KC (loss) and they have another big one next week vs Denver. We like Tampa plus the points here.

#306627 ASA PLAY ON Norfolk State +3.5 over Northern Kentucky, Sunday at 1 PM ET - NKY is 4-6 on the season and their 4 wins have come vs Kentucky State (Non D1), University of the Cumberlands (Non D1), Bellarmine (ranked 333rd), and IU Indy (ranked 349th). Not an impressive list to say the least. Their defense has been one of the worst in the country ranking 337th in eFG% allowed and 358th in 3 point FG% allowed. They haven’t been much better on the other end of the court offensively ranking 295th in eFG% and 331st in 3 point FG%. Throw out their games vs the 2 Non Division 1 teams listed above and the Norse are only averaging 65 PPG on the season. Norfolk State is 6-5 on the year and they have already tallied 3 true road wins. The Spartans are the much better shooting team hitting 49% of their shots on the season (42nd nationally) led by 2 very solid guards (Moore & Ings) who combined to average 33 PPG this season. Norfolk returns 4 starters from last year’s team that finished with a 24-11 record. They are very well coached by head man Robert Jones who returns for his 12th season and over the last 3 years (prior to this season) he has led the Spartans to 70 wins and just 29 losses. They are hungry for a win here coming off back to back losses including losing @ Baylor on Wednesday so a little extra motivation for the better team in our opinion. NKY continues to be overvalued with a 1-7 ATS record on the season while Norfolk is 7-2 ATS, including a 5-1 mark as an underdog. Take the points with Norfolk as we like them to win this game outright.

#630 ASA PLAY ON Kansas -13.5 over NC State, Saturday at 3:15 PM ET - Love this spot for the Jayhawks at home. They are coming off back to back road losses @ Creighton and @ Missouri and they’ve had the full week off to stew about those setbacks and get ready for this home game vs NC State. Let’s not forget before those back to back losses, the Jayhawks had wins over UNC, Michigan State, and Duke and they’ve faced the 15th most difficult schedule to date. NC State, on the other hand, has 3 losses already this season and they’ve faced the 303rd most difficult schedule so far per KenPom. The only win the Wolfpack have vs a team inside the top 200 was vs Florida State and that was at home in OT in a game they trailed by 6 in regulation late. Their 3 losses have come vs top 100 teams Texas at home, and by double digits vs Purdue and BYU on neutral courts. This will be their first true road game of the season and Kansas is the best team they’ve faced to date. Minus their win vs FSU, all of the Wolfpack’s wins have come vs teams ranked 215th or lower. Their most recent game on Tuesday night was at home vs an 0-11 Coppin State team that is rated the 2nd worst team in the nation (363rd) and NC State only won that game by 10 points as a 32 point favorite. That’s the closest game Coppin State has had this season and that includes the likes of UMBC, Loyola Maryland, Wagner, High Point, and Rider who all beat them by a larger margin than NC State. The Wolfpack have only 1 starter back from last year and they are still finding their way with a number of new transfers. Kansas is waiting to smack someone at home and it just happens that NC State is that someone. Blowout here.

#672 ASA PLAY ON Iowa +6.5 over Iowa State, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Huge revenge game for the Hawkeyes who were demolished last year @ ISU 90-65 as an 8 point dog. The Cyclones are laying nearly that same number on the road this year so we like the value with Iowa. ISU is playing their first true road game of the season and they have struggled in Iowa City losing 4 straight here, all by at least 14 points, with their last road win in this rivalry coming in 2014. The Hawkeyes are coming off a 2 point road loss @ Michigan last Saturday in a game they shot just 42% to Michigan’s 55% and made 7 fewer FT’s but still had a shot to win on the road vs a very good opponent. The Cyclone defense thrives on creating turnovers to pick up extra possessions but they may not get that advantage here vs an veteran Iowa back court that has only turned the ball over at a 14% rate (32nd nationally). Iowa State has also had a huge edge at the FT line in their games thus far attempting 93 more FT’s than their opponents in their 8 games. However, Iowa has done a great job of not fouling with only 12% of their opponents points coming from the charity stripe (11th lowest rate in the nation). On top of that, with this game being in Iowa City, we don’t see ISU getting a friendly whistle on Thursday night. The Hawkeyes should have a solid advantage from beyond the arc where they rank 33rd in 3 point shots made per game to ISU’s 208th in that category. Iowa had defended the arc very well this season allowing just 27% (13th nationally) so the Cyclones may make even fewer from deep than their average which isn’t great. Iowa has been waiting for this one after last year’s debacle and we expect this one to be tight. Iowa and the generous points are worth the take here.

#645 ASA PLAY ON UTEP +15 over Louisville, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Louisville has been decimated by injuries early in the season and they’ve struggled as of late losing 3 straight. They’ve already lost 2 starters for the season and their backup PG is also now out for the year. The most recent injury to Kesean Pryor on November 29th was a huge loss as he was putting up 12 PPG and 6 RPG. It’s gotten to a point for the Cards that head coach Pat Kelsey mentioned they’ve struggled to simply go 5x5 in practice due to lack of bodies (they are down to 8 scholarship players). They gave a valiant effort vs Duke here on Sunday building a 14 point first half lead but running out of gas in the 2nd half losing 76-65 and the Cards played only 7 players. Coming off that all out effort and facing arch rival Kentucky on Saturday, we have to believe Louisville might struggle here in this massive sandwich spot. UTEP is a solid team coming off a winning season last year and bringing back a number of their key players. The Miners are 7-2 on the season and have some momentum with 3 straight wins including topping 2 solid teams UNCG and Seattle, both top 140 teams. Unlike Louisville, the Miners are very deep with 10 guys averaging double digit minutes and 8 players averaging between 5 PPG and 13.5 PPG. Defensively they rank #1 in the nation this year AND last year at creating turnovers with opponents coughing it up 28% of the time. That could be a problem for a thin Louisville team that has struggled with turnovers this season and doesn’t have a backup PG. UTEP can also make 3’s (38% which is 50th in the nation) and they make their FT’s (76%). Going back to the start of last season, the Miners have lost only 3 games by more than 14 points (tonight’s line is +14.5). We like UTEP to give Louisville all they can handle on Wednesday and we’ll take the hefty points.

#610 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers -1 over Penn State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We really like this spot for Rutgers coming off 3 consecutive games while they catch PSU after their upset, court storming, home win over Purdue. The Scarlet Knights 3 games losing streak is not a huge surprise as they played high level opponents, away from home, and they were dogs in all 3 of those games vs Alabama, Texas A&M, and Ohio State. They covered 2 of those games losing tight games to Bama (by 5) and A&M (by 4) and they looked emotionally spent in their most recent loss @ OSU. Now Rutgers is back at home for the first time since November 20th and they get to face a Penn State team that has yet to play a true road game. They’ve faced a tough schedule (73rd SOS) thus far taking on 4 teams ranked in the top 80 while PSU’s SOS is ranked 296th and they’ve faced only 2 teams ranked in the top 100 (beat Purdue at home and lost to Clemson on a neutral). An extra layer of motivation for the Knights as they were favored by 8 points at home vs PSU in January and lost shooting just 34%, making only 1 of 17 from beyond the arc, and missing half their FT’s. It was one of the Nittany Lions 2 road wins last year (2-8 SU on the road last season & 7-24 SU on the road the last 3 seasons). PSU is hitting 52% of their shots this season (4th in the country) which isn’t sustainable, especially in their first true road game. They’ve faced only 2 top 100 defensive efficiency teams and already 4 ranked outside the top 300 in that category. Rutgers has one of the most talented teams they’ve ever had with 2 freshmen (Bailey and Harper) each expected to be top 10 draft picks next year. We like a bounce back, all in effort from Rutgers and at this small number we really only need them to win at home.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks -7 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - We are not sure how the Magic can score enough points to keep this game close with their two leading scorers both out for this game. Orlando is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA but the Bucks have two many options offensively with Lillard, Giannis and now K-Middleton back in the fold. After a horrendous start the Bucks are now 10-3 SU in their last 13 games and even with the three losses factored in they have an average plus/minus of +5.3PPG. Milwaukee has won 5 of their last six at home with those five wins coming by an average of +9PPG. Orlando is coming off an upset win over the Durant-less Suns two days ago and are in a tough scheduling situation here. The Magic played 5 straight road games, returned home for the game against the Suns, and are now back on the road again. The home team won all four meetings between these two last season and three of the four were blowouts by +15 or more points.

#136 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals -2.5 over Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These 2 NFC West rivals just faced off 2 weeks ago. The Cardinals were favored by -1 in that game and now we’re getting them only a point and a half higher at home (currently -2.5). In that first meeting, Seattle won the game 16-6 but the Cards outgained the Hawks 5.3 to 4.7 YPP. The huge turning point in that game as a 70 yard pick 6 by Seattle midway through the 3rd quarter with the score sitting at 7-3. Arizona had a tough spot off that loss having to travel to one of the top teams in the NFL (@ Minnesota) for difficult back to back road games. Again, the Cards did lose @ Minnesota last Sunday 23-22 on a late Viking TD with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game. That was the first time Arizona trailed in that game and they outgained the Vikings 406 to 273 total yards. Now they are back at home in a must win spot sitting 1 game out of first place behind the Seahawks. This week Seattle is in the tough situation having to travel to the east coast last Sunday @ NYJ and now on the road again this week. They trailed the Jets 21-7 and had to make a furious comeback to win 26-21 propelled by a 92 yard interception return for a TD. That was Seattle’s 3rd straight win however their offense only averaged 277 yards on 4.7 YPP in those wins. The total yardage in those 3 games was dead even with Seattle gaining 833 total yards and their opponents gaining 833 total yards yet the Seahawks won all 3 (they benefitted from defensive TD’s in 2 of those wins). The offense is struggling and may now be without top RB Walker who has a calf and an ankle injury. Arizona has played the #1 strength of schedule in the NFL so far this season yet they are still +0.5 YPP margin which is good for 7th best in the NFL. Seattle has played a middle of the pack schedule thus far yet they are dead even in YPP margin (+0.0). We like Arizona to win this game by more than a FG.

#134 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Dolphins -5.5 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1 PM ET - There are some very interesting historical trends in this game that support Miami and go against the Jets. We will get to those later. Miami comes into this game off a loss in Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day so they’ve had extra time to prepare for this AFC East showdown. The cold/windy conditions certainly played an impact in that 17-30 loss to the Packers. Looking at Miami’s three previous games we see they were -7.5 at home against New England and won 34-15. The week prior they were laying -8-points at home against the Raiders and won 34-19. The Jets aren’t any better than those two teams and it looks like they’ve quit on the season for a lame duck coach and quarterback. New York is off a stinging loss at home to the Seahawks 21-26, a game in which they led 21-7 before giving up 19 unanswered points in a demoralizing loss. The Dolphins have a +0.1 yards per play differential in their last three games compared to the Jets who are minus 1.3YPP, the 4th worst number int the NFL. The Jets will be without a couple key starters with Breece Hall and Sauce Gardiner out this Sunday, and let’s face it, Rodgers is not the QB he once was and currently ranks 25th in QBR rating. In their last 9 games the Jets are 1-8 ATS and continue to be over-valued by the Books. New York has 1 road win on the season back in week 2 at Tennessee and four of their five road losses have come by 6+ points. Miami has won 13 of the last sixteen meetings with the Jets, with Tua going 4-0 SU and winning those four by an average of +8.6ppg. When Miami with Tua under center has been favored by 6 or more points the Fish have gone 15-1 SU, 12-4 ATS in those games. The Dolphins win this game big.

#754 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -4.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - This is a really good situational spot to grab the Boilers on a low number at home. Purdue was just smoked 81-70 on the road @ Penn State on Thursday. It wasn’t that close as PSU led by 27 with under 10:00 minutes remaining in the game. The Nittany Lions shot very well in that win but the huge edge was at the FT line where they made 29 freebies compared to 14 for Purdue. The Boilermakers also committed a ridiculous 24 turnovers which turned out to be a giveaway on 33% of their possessions. Head coach Matt Painter was upset after the game as you might expect. “Our fight wasn't even close to Penn State's fight. It wasn't even close. Not remotely close,” he said after the loss. You can expect Purdue to play with passion on Sunday. They are facing a Maryland team that is solid, but has yet to play a true road game. They’ve also faced one of the easiest schedules in the country (349th SOS per KenPom – Purdue has played the 16th most difficult SOS) with 6 of their 9 opponents thus far ranking outside the top 250. The Terps are coming off a blowout home win vs Ohio State and the Buckeyes looked disinterested after blowing a big lead and losing to Pitt in OT their previous game. Purdue is undefeated at home including an impressive 9 point win over top 10 Alabama. They have lost back to back games only one time since the start of the 2022 season and the Boilermakers have won 41 of their last 42 home games. The last 5 times these teams have faced off at Mackey Arena the Boilers have been favored by an average of -10.5 points and they’ve won all 5. We’re getting them at a very low number here because of their performance and PSU”s and Maryland’s blowout win over OSU. Take Purdue.

#118 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON SMU -2.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 8 PM ET - SMU has just 1 loss on the season, a 3 point setback to a very good BYU team (10-2 record), and that was prior to current QB Jennings taking over as the starter for a struggling Preston Stone. Since Jennings has been starting under center, the Mustangs are 9-0 winning by an average score of 41-21. During that stretch they beat a number of bowl teams including Louisville by 7 on the road, TCU by 24, @ Duke by 1, Pitt by 13, BC by 10, and Cal by 32, all teams .500 or better. The Mustangs are really good on both sides of the ball with a top 25 offense and defense in a YPP basis. They have the 4th best rush defense in the country allowing only 95 YPG on 2.8 YPC and they have outgained their opponents by an average of +1.8 YPP. Clemson hasn’t really beaten any really good teams this season. The only team they beat that ended the season with a winning record was Pitt and in that game the Panthers outgained Clemson by almost 100 yards and the Tigers scored a TD with 1:16 remaining to win 24.20. Whenever the Tigers had to step up in class they fell short losing big to Georgia by 31, to Louisville by 12 at home, and to South Carolina by 3 at home. If you subtract their 1 good win vs Pitt, who finished with a 7-5 record and was trending down at the end of the year, the Tigers other 7 wins (vs FBS opponents) were vs teams that had a combined record of 25-46. SMU is the better team on both sides of the ball in this game and fared much better vs common opponents. We like SMU to win this one by more than a FG.

ASA NBA top play on New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:10 PM ET - We played against the Thunder the other night when they went to Toronto and destroyed the Raptors by 37-points. OKC was favored by -9.5 points in that game and are now giving the Pelicans that same number in New Orleans. At first glance, that would seem to make sense, but that number is based on the Pels 5-18 SU record, not the current lineup the Thunder are about to face tonight. New Orleans has been decimated by injuries this season and has had to play multiple bench players each and every night. They will be without Williamson tonight, but they have everyone else back including Ingram, Jones, McCollum and Murray. With that lineup intact they are coming off a 126-124 win over the Suns and they can certainly hang with the Thunder team on their home floor. The Pelicans have some added incentive here after being bounced from the playoffs a year ago by the Thunder and losing to them in November with a depleted lineup. OKC is really good this season, but they are not in a great scheduling situation here with this being their 6th road game out of their last seven overall. Not to mention they have a much bigger game on deck with the Mavericks looming.

#638 ASA PLAY ON St Thomas -6 over Montana, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We were on Montana as a home dog earlier this week facing South Dakota State and we picked up a nice win with the Grizzlies coming out on top 71-67. SDSU played that game without their leading scorer & rebounder Oscar Cluff, who averages 18 PPG and 11 RPG. That was a huge loss to a very young SDSU team that plays a number of freshmen and they were playing their first true road game of the season. Even with Cluff out the Jackrabbits kept it fairly close despite shooting only 17% from beyond the arc. Now Montana must travel to Minneapolis to face a full strength St Thomas team that ranks with SDSU at the top team in the Summit League. The Griz have won 4 in a row, however all those wins were at home. They are 0-3 SU on the road this season. St Thomas is unbeaten at home this season and they just won @ Northern Arizona by 12 points, a team from the Big Sky that is rated higher than Montana in that conference. The Tommies weakness is on the boards but the Grizzlies aren’t a team that can take advantage of that as they are bad on the glass as well. St Thomas is one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 23rd nationally in eFG%, 46th in 3-point FG% and 31st in 2-point FG%. They also make over 76% of their FT’s. Montana is not a good shooting team especially from beyond the arc where they make only 28% (313th). With the Tommies shooting well and averaging 84 PPG on the season, we’re not sure Montana can keep up. Lay the small number.

#112 ASA PLAY ON Miami OH -2.5 over Ohio, Saturday at 12 PM ET - These 2 met earlier this season and Miami dominated the Bobcats. The final score was 30-20 but that was not indicative of the lopsided play on the field. Miami led 30-6 with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game and Ohio scored 2 meaningless TD’s late. Ohio finished with 291 total yards on just 3.8 YPP and 91 of those yards came on their last 2 drives of the game, both TD’s. The Redhawks averaged 6.4 YPP in the game, outrushed Ohio 5.0 to 3.3 YPC, and averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt to 4.2 for the Bobcats. Just complete domination in that win. These 2 both have just 1 loss in MAC play, however Miami has played the much tougher slate in conference facing Bowling Green, NIU, Toledo, and Ohio, the 4 highest rated teams in the league besides themselves. Ohio, on the other hand, avoided both BG and NIU with their only decent win on MAC playing coming vs Toledo. Despite that, the Redhawks still had the better YPP margin in conference play (+1.6 to +1.2). Last week, Miami dominated a very good BG team on the road in what was a play in game for the MAC Championship. They win 28-12, outgained the Eagles by over 100 yards and had a +2.2 YPC margin. We get the better QB in this game as well on our side with Miami’s Gabbert, a 6th year senior, who has thrown for over 10,000 yards with 80 TD’s and 29 picks. Ohio QB Navarro is a senior as well, but a 1st year starter who has thrown for 2,100 career yards with just 13 TD’s and 11 picks. Miami was in this game last year and won giving them an edge as well. The Redhawks win their 2nd straight MAC Title on Saturday

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +1 at Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Wolves are in a much better scheduling situation here with the Warriors coming off a hard fought, physical game against the Rockets last night, while the Wolves are rested. Not only do the Wolves have a rest advantage but they didn’t have lengthy travel as they last played the Clippers on Wednesday night. Minnesota has won 3 straight and look like they are starting to figure their new roster out. Golden State played 2 recent road games including a game in Denver on Dec 3rd in higher altitude, then played last night making this the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights. The Warriors played last night without Curry and Draymond Green. Curry will probably be back tonight, Green is out for an extended period. Minnesota beat this Warriors team all three meetings a year ago, including a pair of wins on this court. If we look at the T’Wolves last five games they have the 7th best eDIFF rating in the NBA compared to the Warriors who rank 22nd in that same category. Grab the points with Minnesota.

#894 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +4.5 over Illinois, Friday at 9 PM ET - We think the Illini are overvalued right now after playing a very easy schedule thus far (309th SOS) and now playing their first true road game of the season. The Illini have played only 2 top 100 teams thus far and split those 2 games. NW is coming off a tough loss @ Iowa where the Hawkeyes hit a 3 pointer at the horn to win by 1 point. The Wildcats led that game by 6 points with less than 2:00 minutes remaining the game and obviously had a great shot to win a road game despite Iowa hitting 55% of their shots. NW’s 3 losses this season came @ Iowa by 1, @ Dayton by 5 (Dayton’s 2 losses are vs UNC by 2 and Iowa St by 5) and @ Butler by 2. The Cats have won the last 2 meetings outright in Evanston, both as underdogs. The Illinois defensive numbers are impressive, however, they have faced 3 teams ranked outside the top 300 in offensive efficiency and the only good offensive team they’ve faced, Alabama, put up 100 points. The Illini have a huge game on deck vs Wisconsin and they are facing a Northwestern team that has won 20 of their last 22 home games. This smells like a potential upset to us. We’ll take the points with Northwestern.

#107 ASA PLAY ON UNLV +4 over Boise State, Friday at 8 PM ET - These 2 met earlier this season and Boise pulled out a 29-24 win and despite the loss UNLV outgained the Broncos by nearly +1.0 YPP (6.3 to 5.4 YPP). The only turnover in the game was an interception thrown by UNLV QB Williams that led to a short 17-yard TD drive for Boise which turned out to be the difference in the game. We were very impressed with the Rebels rush defense as they held All American RB Jeanty to only 3.9 YPC. If they can accomplish that again, we like UNLV to win this game outright. They have a great shot at doing so as the Rebs rank 10th in the nation holding opponents to only 101 YPG rushing on 3.1 YPC. If UNLV can slow down Boise’s run game, the Broncos will have to rely on QB Madsen who has struggled down the stretch completing less than 55% of his passes in 4 of their last 6 games. This Boise State team has been trending down in our opinion. Last week they beat a bad Oregon State team but the Broncos were outgained 6.0 YPP to 5.7 YPP. In their 3 games leading up to last week’s win vs OSU, the Broncos needed a late TD to beat Wyoming who finished with a 3-9 record, they beat SJSU but were outgained in the stats but helped by 4 Spartan turnovers, and barely held on to beat a 3-10 Nevada team by a TD. UNLV ranks 4th nationally averaging 254 YPG rushing and they’ve outrushed their last 4 opponents by an average of +200 YPG on the ground. We love a good running team that has a solid defense as an underdog. UNLV keeps this very close and has a great shot to win it outright.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors +9.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - This feisty Raptors team is flying under the radar right now and is a competitive out every night. Toronto is 15-7 ATS this season, 8-2 ATS as a home dog with an average loss margin of just -0.1ppg. In their last five games the Raptors are 16th in Offensive Efficiency and 10th Defensively. They have an average +/- of +5.6ppg in their last five outings. Toronto has won their last four home games against quality competition including the Pacers twice, the Heat and the Timberwolves. OKC is one of the top three teams in the league with Cleveland and Boston and currently sit 16-5 SU on the season. As a road favorite, they are 5-4 ATS with an average +/- of +8.6ppg. In their last five road games the Thunder have 2 losses and only one win by more than this point spread. OKC is an average shooting team at 46.2% and relies heavily on volume shooting (3rd in FGA’s). Toronto ranks 7th in fast break efficiency defense and should limit the Thunders transition opportunities. This is a big number and we like the home dog plus the point.

#306586 ASA PLAY ON UT Rio Grande Valley -6.5 over Stephen F Austin, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - UTRGV continues to slide under most people’s radars but this team is very good. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS covering by an average of more than 10 PPG. They have played a very tough schedule already traveling to play @ Nebraska, @ Creighton, and @ Wisconsin. They took the Badgers to the wire losing 87-84 and UTRGV had the ball down 1 point with less than 15 seconds remaining in the game. The Vaqueros are averaging 87 PPG, they rank 65th in the nation in eFG%, make 12 three pointers a game (9th in the nation), and hit 76% of their FT’s and keep in mind that’s vs the 81st most difficult SOS to date. Stephen F Austin has played a much easier slate (292nd) and they still have 3 losses. All 3 of their wins vs D1 opponents have come vs teams ranked 260th or lower and this team really struggles on offense. Take out their 2 games vs non Division 1 opponents and the Lumberjacks are averaging only 59 PPG. They rank 329th in offensive efficiency, make only 56% of their FT’s, and turn the ball over at a ridiculous rate (27.4% which is 363rd out of 364 teams). SFA is going to have a hard time keeping up in this game so we’ll lay the points with UT Rio Grande Valley playing in just their 3rd home game of the season.

#730 ASA PLAY ON Montana +3 over South Dakota State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Montana is on a 3 game winning streak, they are 5-0 at home this year and they’ve been at home since November 19th so more than 2 full weeks. The Grizzlies are coming off a very good 24-12 record a year ago and they are really tough to beat at home winning 21 of their last 24 games in Dahlberg Arena. They’ve only been a home dog 1 time since the start of the 2022 season and the Griz won that game outright. They’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country thus far (43rd SOS per KenPom) and their 3 losses have come vs high level teams all on the road (Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah State). This is a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting line up. Tonight they face a very young South Dakota State team who is playing their first true road game of the season. The Jackrabbits start 2 freshmen and have 4 freshmen in their top 7 all playing their first true road game of their careers. They have a slightly better record (7-2) but they’ve also played the much easier schedule (236th per KenPom). While Montana has been at home for a few weeks, SDSU played 3 games in the Cayman Islands last week, came home for 1 game vs Dakota Wesleyan on Monday and now 2 nights later on the road again @ Montana. The last time these 2 faced off @ Montana was 2 years ago and in a pick-em game, the Grizzlies rolled to an easy 81-56 win. We don’t expect a blowout here, but we do like the home team to get the win.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +4 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - First off, scheduling favors the Hawks in this Eastern Conference showdown as the Bucks played a big game in Detroit last night while the Hawks are rested. Milwaukee beat the Pistons in Detroit to clinch a spot in the Cup Playoffs by winning their pod. The Bucks are 7-10-1 ATS their last eighteen games when playing without rest with an average +/- of +3.2ppg which doesn’t get a cover here. On the flip side, the Hawks are a profitable 12-8 ATS their last twenty when playing with a rest advantage and have an average +/- of +4.0ppg. Milwaukee is playing well right now with 7 straight wins, but the Hawks have reeled of 4 straight of their own, with a pair of those wins coming against the Cavaliers. Looking at each team’s last 5 games we find the Bucks have the 5th best eDIFF (Efficiency Differential) in the NBA at +10.4, but the Hawks are 8th at +6.3. How much will Giannis play in the second night of a B2B? Dyson Daniels is one of the best defensive guards in the league and will make Lillard work for every point tonight. Jalen Johnson is quietly putting together All-Star type numbers and returns home to Wisconsin and could have a big game. The 4-points is too attractive to pass up.

#658 ASA PLAY ON Clemson +2 over Kentucky, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Tigers as a slight home favorite here so we like the value on Clemson as a dog. Kentucky has won their first 7 games of the season with 6 of those coming at home and another, vs Duke, on a neutral site in Atlanta. This will be their first true road game of the season which is always a tough spot especially vs a very good team like Clemson. Six of Kentucky’s seven wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 100 so their strength of schedule, besides Duke, hasn’t been great. The Tigers are 7-1 on the season with their lone loss @ Boise State. They are 5-0 at home and they’ve been really tough to beat in Littlejohn Coliseum winning 35 of their last 41 games in their own arena. The Kentucky offense is averaging a ridiculous 96 PPG on the season, however they’ve faced mainly poor defensive teams (5 of 7 ranked outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency) and they Cats have gotten the pace they want (fast – ranked 4th in adjusted tempo) vs most of the teams they’ve played. That changes here. Clemson will play this game at their much preferred slower pace and they really make opponents work on defense allowing a shot every 19.4 seconds (3rd longest in the nation). The Tigers rank 24th nationally in defensive efficiency and have held every opponent but 1 to less than 70 points. While we don’t expect Clemson to shut down this UK offense, they will do enough defensively to slow them down a make them uncomfortable in the half court. The Tigers offense is good enough to stay in this one as well ranking in the top 20 nationally in 3 point FG% and they shoot over 50% from the field at home. Kentucky has a huge game on deck vs Gonzaga so they could be peaking ahead. We like Clemson to pull the upset at home.

ASA NBA play on: NY Knicks -4.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - This game has NBA Emirates Cup implications as the Knicks need to win to get in, the Magic can win or lose by less than 30-points to make it in. Clearly it means more for New York. The Knicks have been at home and are coming off a blowout win over the Pelicans 118-85. After a slow start, the Knicks are starting to figure out their new rotations with KAT and Bridges. The Magic have been a huge surprise this season and have done it mainly without their best player in Banchero who has missed several weeks with an injury. Orlando is very good defensively but struggles on the offensive end of the court. Even though they have a better overall record at 15-7 SU compared to NY’s 12-8 SU record, the Knicks have the better eDIFF of +6.6 vs. +5.9. The Magic are 6-7 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -0.9ppg. New York is 6-2 SU at home with an average plus/minus of +14.1ppg. We like New York big in this one.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Colorado -16 over Pacific, Monday at 9 PM ET - Pacific comes in with a 5-4 record but their wins have come against 3 teams ranked 234th or lower and 2 non Division 1 teams (Jessup & Life Pacific). In their 3 games so far this season vs top 200 opponents, they’ve lost all 3 by an average of 21 points. In their 2 games vs very similar competition to tonight’s opponent Colorado, they lost by 22 vs Arkansas and by 35 vs Missouri. The Tigers are not a good shooting team ranking 255th in eFG% and 331st in 3 point FG% and that’s 4 of their 7 Division 1 opponents ranking outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. We think Pacific will struggle offensively vs the Buffs on the road here. Colorado should have an edge to them tonight after getting blown out by a very good Iowa State team in their most recent game last Wednesday. The Buffs beat UConn the night before that loss so they may have been a bit flat. CU has already faced 3 teams at home in a similar rating range as Pacific (Eastern Washington, Cal State Fullerton, and Harvard) and they won those games by 20, 30, and 22 points respectively. The Buffs have averaged 84 PPG in their 4 home games and we don’t see Pacific keeping up in this game.

#479 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles +3 over Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Eagles are rolling winning 7 in a row following their bye week back in early October. Their point differential during that 7 game run is +107 (+15.3 PPG) and they outgained all 7 of those opponents by more than 100 yards! The Eagles have a +115 YPG differential which is #1 in the NFL and their YPP differential is #2. The offense has scored at least 26 points in 6 straight games and the defense is #1 in total defense and #2 in YPP allowed. This stop unit has allowed only 1 team to top 23 points this season. Baltimore is on a short week after beating the Chargers in LA on Monday night and they have yet to get a week off playing for the 13th straight week. As good as the Ravens have been at times, they do have 4 losses on the season including setbacks vs the Browns and Raiders. Their offense has been outstanding but the Ravens defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL ranking 24th in total defense, 23rd in scoring defense, and 31st in pass defense. The loss of defensive coordinator McDonald to Seattle has had a big impact on that side of the ball. We think they’ll really struggle vs a Philly offense that is explosive putting up 24 more plays of 20 or more yards than their opponents, the largest margin in the league. The Eagles have been tabbed underdogs twice this season and they won both of those games outright and we think they have a solid shot again on Sunday. Both of these offenses are outstanding but we’re getting the much better defense with Philadelphia and we’re getting points. Take it.

#372 ASA PLAY ON James Madison -3.5 over Marshall, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Marshall is on a 5 game winning streak but digging into the stats they have been very fortunate to say the least. The Herd have actually been outgained in 3 of those 5 wins and were dead even yardage wise in another. They’ve benefitted from opponent’s mistakes as they are +7 turnovers in those 5 games. On top of that, not one of their opponents during this 5 game run currently has a winning record. Now they run into a James Madison team that is 8-3 this season and they are a perfect 5-0 at home and they’ve win 15 of their last 17 home games. Marshall is playing their 2nd straight road game and they are 2-3 on the road this year and just 3-8 away from home since the start of last season. They will be facing a motivated JMU team who is coming off a loss @ App State as a 7 point favorite. The Dukes also have a chance to knock Marshall out of the Sun Belt Championship game as a win here puts the Herd in that game next week (extra pressure on the road team to win this one). Last week Marshall played @ ODU (who is now 4-7 on the season) and the line in that game was the Monarchs favored by 3. They were outgained in that game 513 to 469, ODU has 2 turnovers (0 for Marshall) and the Herd scored a late TD to win by 7. Now we’re getting nearly the same number @ JMU (currently -3.5) and the Dukes are a much better team than ODU (JMU was favored @ ODU just a few weeks ago). JMU is the better team across the board with better YPP, YPG, and YPC margins and playing in their home finale. Marshall is vastly overvalued right now with a 9-1 ATS record which is why we are getting this great value with JMU at home. Lay the small number with James Madison on Saturday night.

#438 ASA PLAY ON USC +8 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line is too high in our opinion. USC was +3 to +3.5 at home vs Penn State this year and the game went to OT. We have PSU and ND rated within 1 point of each other yet we’re getting more than a TD in this one. ND has been rolling over opponents during their current 9 game winning streak but they haven’t played many good teams during that stretch. The best team they faced in that 9 game run was Louisville (who is currently 7-4) and while the Irish won that game at home, they were outgained by 115 yards. Speaking of playing at home, the Irish have not played a true road game since traveling to Purdue in mid September. They’ve played 3 neutral site games since then but not a true road game. The situation for the Irish isn’t great either as they played in NYC last week vs Army and now travel to the west coast this week while USC has basically been at home for the last 3 weeks (played @ UCLA across town last week and home vs Nebraska prior to that). The Trojans are much better than their 6-5 record with a YPP margin of +0.6 and a YPG margin of +65 playing a MUCH more difficult schedule than ND (15th SOS for USC and 65th for ND). USC has been unlucky to say the least with their 5 losses coming by a combined 19 points with none by more than a TD. Notre Dame has very rarely been dominant when facing USC in LA with only ONE win by more than a TD in the last 27 meetings on the west coast. We like USC getting more than a TD here.

#327 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +26 over Ole Miss, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - We were on Ole Miss last weekend @ Florida and missed that one badly. The Rebs were coming out of a bye and needed a big win to keep their CFB Playoff hopes alive. They laid an egg and lost as a double digit favorite and now their hopes are out the window. How do they respond here vs a 2-9 MSU team? We’re guessing the Rebels will be flat as a pancake with no CFB Playoff in their future. On the other sidelines, this is Mississippi State’s Super Bowl so to speak. They would like nothing more than to close out their season with an upset win over their rival. The Bulldogs have already shown the can hang with the big boys covering @ Georgia (lost by 10 as a 32 point dog), @ Tennessee (lost by 19 as a 26 point dog), vs Texas A&M (lost by 10 as a 21 point dog) and @ Texas (lost by 22 as a 30+ point dog). MSU has lost only 1 game all season by more than 24 points. In SEC play, Ole Miss has only 1 win by more than 24 points. The Bulldogs are still playing hard covering 5 of their last 7 games and they’ve covered all 4 of their games when a dog of more than 2 TD’s (see above). The last time Ole Miss beat Mississippi State by more than 17 points was back in 2008 and they’ve beaten MSU by more than this spread (currently 26) just 2 times since 1988. We expect the Bulldogs to hang around in this one and get the cover.

#306 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions -9.5 over Chicago Bears, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET - Chicago has played much better at home the last 2 weeks but they still lost both games to Green Bay & Minnesota. Losing on a blocked FG vs the Packers and then in OT vs the Vikings had to take a lot out of this team both physically and emotionally. Even in those tight games, the stats were heavily in favor of the road games. Green Bay outgained Chicago 8.5 YPP to 5.8 YPP and Minnesota outgained the Bears 7.0 to 5.5 YPP. Those games could have and probably should have been easy wins for GB & Minnesota. Now Chicago going on the road, on a short week vs the best team in the NFL is a really tough spot. They aren’t playing for a whole lot right now as their playoff chances are less than 1% with a 4-7 record. The Lions just keep winning and covering week after week and we’re getting them at a nice price here (currently -9.5 as of this writing). The Lions are 9-2 ATS this season and now 44-18 vs the number since the start of the 2021 season. If Detroit was going to get clipped and play a poor game, last week @ Indy was a perfect spot for that to happen and they still dominated 24-6 outgaining the Colts by +120 yards. Detroit remains one of the top 3 teams in the NFL in YPP margin at +1.0 and Chicago has the 2nd worst YPP margin in the league at -1.1. The offense is rolling for Detroit scoring at least 40 points in 4 of their last 8 games & they’ve scored a TD on almost 36% of their possessions, by far the best in the NFL. Now they face a Chicago defense trending down allowing 6.8 YPP over their last 3 games. Favorites on Thanksgiving Day have been fantastic with a 38-19 ATS record since 2004. It’s always a tough spot for the road team playing on a Holiday and we like Detroit by double digits in this game.

#782 ASA PLAY ON Wichita State -1.5 over Minnesota, Thursday at 12 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Kissimmee, Florida. Minnesota has pretty much a new roster from last season (4 new starters and 5 of their top 7 players are new) and they have yet to play a game away from Williams Arena in Minneapolis. Despite playing all home games, this Gopher team hasn’t impressed. They lost at home vs North Texas and have a number of very close wins vs inferior competition. They beat Central Michigan (5th rated team in the MAC) on Monday by 3, beat Nebraska Omaha (8th rated team in the Summit League) by 4, and they came from double digits down to beat Yale by 3 points. Despite playing at home, Minnesota has not shot the ball well at all ranking 235th in eFG%, 244th in 3 points percentage (30%) and they make only 63% of their FT’s. We don’t expect those numbers to improve in their first road game vs a Wichita State team that is 5-0 and ranks in the top 85 in defensive efficiency and top 45 defending the arc. The Shockers have played a formidable schedule to date with 4 of their 5 opponents ranked inside the top 150. Minnesota has played only 2 teams ranked inside the top 150 (1-1 record) and 3 teams ranked outside the top 200. Wichita brings 3 starters back from last year and 60% of their minutes return which we factor in heavily early in the season. They don’t turn the ball over very much (12% which is 4th least in the country) and they get to the FT line a lot (26% of their points from the stripe). When they get there, they make them at a 76% clip which could be huge in what is projected to be a close game. Unlike Minnesota, the Shockers have played 2 games away from home this year beating Western Kentucky (4th rated team in CUSA) by 7 and they rolled a solid St Louis team by 25 points in Kansas City. The Gophs are the worst team in the Big 10 this year and we like Wichita to get the win and cover early on Thanksgiving Day.

ASA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -10 vs. Atlanta Hawks – 7:10 PM ET - The Cavs are 17-1 and currently 10-0 SU at home on the season. The Cavs are winning at home by an average of +14.7ppg this season and only 2 of those 10 home wins have come by less than 10-points. The Hawks are on a 3-game losing streak and are 3-6 SU away this season with a negative average point differential of minus -6.9ppg. Going back to the start of last season the Hawks have the worst road spread record in the NBA at 18-32 ATS with an average +/- of minus 6.1ppg. The Cavs beat the Hawks 3 of four games last season with the lone loss being a meaningless game in March. Cleveland won the 3 games by an average of 17.3ppg. The Cavs last four home games have been decided by +14, +28, +14 and +18. The Hawks last two road games have been losses to the Bulls and Warriors by -14 and -23. We like Cleveland to send a message to the Hawks tonight in the first game of the back-to-back series as these team meet again on Friday.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3 vs. Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - This is a Cup game and will have more meaning than a normal regular season game as the Rockets are 2-0 in Cup play, the T’Wolves are 1-1 and behind Houston in pool play. Minnesota has underachieved this season and stands 8-8 SU as they continue to adjust to a new lineup without Karl Anthony Towns. I’ll be honest, I’m not sold on Julius Randall long-term for the Wolves, but we’ll have to wait and see. Regardless, we like Minnesota big here at home against a Houston team that has faced a very weak schedule to get to 12-6 SU. Again, despite a schedule disparity, the Rockets with a winning record have a +8.6 eDIFF differential, compared to Minnesota who is +2.1 in eDIFF, yet are .500. Houston is starting to see some chinks in their armor as Jalen Green’s shooting is regressing after a hot start to the season. Green takes the most shots for the Rockets, but he makes just 38.2% of his field goal attempts. That coincided with the Rockets Offensive Efficiency ratings dropping from 1.128 to 1.106PPP in their last five games. Minnesota is 10th in OEFF on the season with the 4th best EFG% numbers in the NBA. Minnesota is coming off a close loss in Boston which was one of their better overall games of the season and we expect that momentum to carry over here. Minnesota is 5-2 SU at home this season and 38-18 SU dating back to the start of last season with an average +/- of +7.4ppg. The Wolves beat this Rockets team 3 times last season with all three margins by more than tonight’s spread. Lay it with Minnesota.

#618 ASA PLAY ON Samford -10.5 over North Dakota State, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - We’re not sure NDSU can keep up on the road in this one. Samford averages over 90 PPG and their lowest point total this season was 75 and that was an 8 point loss @ Michigan State who ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs have scored at least 86 points in every other game this season. At home this offense has been lethal averaging 96 PPG in their last 21 home games dating back to the start of last season. In this game they are facing a North Dakota State defense that is allowing opponents to shoot 49% in their 3 road games this season, they rank 313th in defensive efficiency and 277th in eFG% allowed. On offense the Bison are not a great shooting team ranking outside the top 200 in both 2-point FG% and 3-point FG%. NDSU has hit only 32% of their triples this season yet they take a lot of them averaging 28 three point attempts per game. We don’t see them having success from deep here vs a Samford defense that has held their opponents to just 28% from beyond the arc. The way to beat the Bulldogs is by creating turnovers and hitting the offensive glass, two weaknesses of Samford. The problem in this game is, NDSU is last in the nation at creating turnovers and they aren’t a good offensive rebounding team (319th). Samford’s Hanna Center is a very tough place to play and long travel for NDSU. The Bulldogs have won 41 of their last 44 home games and they pick up an easy win tonight.

#879 ASA PLAY ON Auburn -3.5 over Iowa State, Monday at 9 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral site in Hawaii.  Both teams step into this game undefeated but Auburn has tested themselves early playing the much tougher schedule.  The Tigers have already faced 4 teams in the top 190 including Houston (#1 team in the nation per KenPom) and they topped the Cougars in Houston.  ISU, on the other hand, has faced the 364th most difficult schedule (per KenPom) with the teams they’ve faced so far ranking 364th, 360th, and 235th.  All those games were at home as well so the Cyclones will be playing in unfamiliar territory for the first time this season.  Despite playing a tough slate to date, Auburn ranks in the top 5 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They put up 74 points in a Houston defense that hasn’t allowed more than 45 points in any of their other games.  The Tigers lead the nation in eFG% and 2 point FG% while averaging 87 PPG.  Auburn has better eFG% numbers on both offense and defense despite the fact that ISU’s 3 opponents have a combined record of 0-14 vs Division 1 teams this season.  We’ll lay the small number with Auburn on Monday.

#273 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -2.5 over LA Chargers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We like backing the Ravens off a loss in this one. They are 6-1 ATS the game following their last 7 SU losses. Their 18-16 loss @ Pittsburgh last week was very misleading as Baltimore outgained Pitt 6.1 YPP to 4.1 YPP. The Ravens also had 3 turnovers which led directly to half of Pittsburgh’s points (9) and they missed 2 FG’s. It was a game Baltimore should have won and we look for them to bounce back strong on Monday night. The Chargers have a solid 7-3 record but they’ve played the 30th ranked strength of schedule thus far and have just 1 win over a team that is currently above .500 (Denver). Their other wins have come against were Carolina, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Cleveland, Tennessee, and Cincinnati who have a combined record of 20-46. Despite their easy slate thus far, the Chargers YPP differential is +0.3 which is 10th in the NFL compared to Baltimore’s +1.5 YPP differential with is #1 in the league. LA is only outgaining their opponents on a YPG basis by +9 yards (Ravens are +69 YPG). The Charger defense has good overall numbers, however when they finally faced an offense with a pulse last week, the Bengals put up 452 yards and 27 points. We don’t see them slowing down this Raven’s offense that has been historically good to date averaging 7.0 YPP. To put that in perspective, over the last 20+ years, no team in the NFL has ended the season with a YPP of more than 6.7. Baltimore hasn’t been great as a heavy favorite when Lamar Jackson starts at QB, however as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog they are 25-6 ATS in the regular season.

#838 ASA PLAY ON North Texas -6.5 over Oregon State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Rough situation for Oregon State who is playing their first road game of the season after losing at home to archrival Oregon on Thursday. The Beavers were 6.5 point home dogs in that game and lost 78-75 blowing a double digit 2nd half lead in the process. Now they head out on the road where they have a terrible 2-31 SU record in true road games since the start of the 2021 season. Their opponent, North Texas, is a veteran team with an 8 man rotation of all juniors and seniors. This is a tough team that plays a slow pace and outstanding defense (38th in 3 point FG defense & 52nd in defensive efficiency). The Mean Green are 4-1 on the season and they’ve played a much tougher schedule than OSU (79th SOS compared to 320th for Oregon State). They are undefeated at home and have won 38 of their last 46 games at the Super Pit in Denton, TX. UNT has better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, they shoot the 3 at a higher percentage, they are one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (14th) and they turn teams over at a 21% rate (67th). They already have a win @ Minnesota and this is a big time home game for the Mean Green. Lay it.

#258 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Commanders -10 over Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Cowboys have some big-time problems. Players are complaining about the coach, their defense has dropped way off from top 10 in YPP allowed last year to 30th this year, and their offense under backup QB Rush hasn’t been able to score (16 points in 2 games). If Dallas was going to rally and play well, it would have been at home during their last 2 games vs archrival Philadelphia and on Monday night in front of the whole world vs Houston. They didn’t rally to say the least. They looked terrible losing those games by a combined score of 68-16. Now they go on the road, on a short week after playing Monday night, vs a rested opponent. Washington played on Thursday and lost vs the Eagles. The Commanders will be hungry here after losing 2 straight (vs Pitt & Philly – 2 of the better teams in the NFL) and they were rolled twice by the Cowboys last season. The Dallas defense has allowed at least 30 points in 4 of their last 5 games and they are facing a Washington offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in total offense, YPP offense, and Rushing. Their running game is putting up 148 YPG and that plays directly into the Cowboys biggest weakness on defense as they rank 31st allowing 151 YPG rushing. The Commander’s defense has been trending up allowing 5.3 YPP over their last 3 and even better at home this year where they give up only 4.6 YPP. New Washington head coach Quinn was the Cowboys DC last year so he should have a pretty good idea on how to defend an already struggling offense. Mike McCarthy is just 13-31-1 SU and 14-31 ATS vs. teams with a winning record since 2017 and Dallas has a home game on Thanksgiving on deck so don’t be surprised if that’s the game they are more focused on. Something is wrong in Dallas and we think they get rolled here.

#144 ASA TOP PLAY ON Old Dominion -2.5 over Marshall, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This is a huge game for ODU who needs to win their last 2 games to get to 6 wins and bowl eligible. The Monarchs are coming off a 35-32 home loss vs James Madison, one of the top teams in the Sun Belt. ODU actually outplayed JMU in the stats averaging 6.3 YPP to 5.7 YPP. A week earlier, ODU lost @ App State 28-20 but outgained the Mountaineers by more than 100 yards but had 4 turnovers. Prior to that the Monarchs were on a roll winning 3 in a row all by 7+ points and despite losing their last 2, they are still playing very well. We could conceivably be looking at a 5 game winning streak for Old Dominion. Marshall did the opposite last week. They beat Coastal Carolina at home but were outgained by more than 1.0 YPP in that win. The Herd scored a TD on a blocked punt and also had a 2 yard TD drive after a Coastal turnover (CC had 3 turnovers). Marshall has very rarely ventured on the road as of late with 5 of their last 7 games coming at home. They’ve only played 2 conference road games so far beating USM, the worst team in the Sun Belt, and losing @ Georgia Southern. The Herd are 5-1 in conference play in 1st place in the Sun Belt East yet are underdogs vs ODU who is 3-3 in conference play and 4-6 overall? It’s the Monarch’s home finale and we like them to win and cover on Saturday keeping their bowl hopes alive.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +9.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The O/U on this game is very low at 206.5 which makes the points available in this game even more attractive than normal. First off, the Pistons will be a man short tonight with Cade Cunningham out with an injury. Typically, when a team loses an important piece like Cunningham, the player filling in for him rises to the occasion in that first game. The Pistons will insert Malik Beasley into the starting lineup who has been playing well off the bench averaging 15.5ppg, 3.2rpg and 1.6apg. Detroit is much better this season with a 7-10 SU record and an average margin of victory of minus -1.2ppg. That number is significantly better than the -9.1ppg differential they had last season. Detroit is 11th in defensive efficiency rating and hold teams to an average of 111.6ppg. Of the Pistons 10 losses this season only 3 have come by more than 10-points. Orlando is playing really well right now, but they are also coming off a tough 3-game West Coast Road trip and an upset win over the Lakers in their most recent game. The Magic are 10-7 SU with an average +/- of +3.6ppg. In a low scoring game we will grab the points with the live underdog.

#818 ASA TOP PLAY ON Southern Indiana +3.5 over South Dakota, Friday at 8 PM ET - Tough spot for South Dakota who just played @ Western Michigan on Wednesday night and now on the road 2 days later. They beat WMU 80-76 thanks in part to 8 more FT’s made but the Coyotes got creamed on the boards 53 to 38. The Broncos shot only 18% from deep (4 of 22) so with that stat and the extra FT’s made, South Dakota was a bit fortunate to come away with the win. They were favored by 2.5 on the road in that game and now 2 nights later they are favored by 4 (opening number) on the road vs a team that is power rated higher than Western Michigan. We can’t expect a team that has been terrible on the road (South Dakota is 5-24 SU on the road since the start of the 2022 season) to not only win back to back road games, but win this one by more than 4 points. Southern Indiana has had a full week off to get ready for this one and while they are 1-4 on the season, some of their losses have been pretty solid if that’s a thing. They lost @ DePaul (who is currently undefeated) in OT and lost to a very solid mid major program, Bucknell, also in OT. This is just their 2nd home game of the season and the Eagles have to feel they have a great shot to get a home win here. Neither team has been good defensively (both outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency) but Southern Indiana has shot the 3 ball much better (37% to 29% for South Dakota) and they are the better FT shooting team (74% to 65% for South Dakota). We look for this veteran USI team (6 upperclassmen in their top 7) to pick up a win tonight and even if they don’t, we can’t see South Dakota winning this one by margin. Take the points.

ASA top play on Brooklyn Nets +6 at Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - Despite being a dominant player in the NBA (when he plays), It’s become evident that Joel Embiid is a cancer on any roster. The Sixers are 2-12 SU this season, 3-11 ATS and don’t compete on a nightly basis. Philly has the 4th worse Efficiency Differential at -9.1 compared to Brooklyn who has an eDIFF of -3.1. Consider this, the Nets have been +8.5 and +10 at New York recently and are now catching +6-points at Philadelphia? The feisty Nets are 10-4-1 ATS this season and have been competitive in road losses at New York by 10 and 2-points, at Cleveland by 5 and Boston by 4-points all in the last month. The 76ers have one home win this season over the Charlotte Hornets by 2-points in OT. Brooklyn beat this Sixers team twice last season and can easily win this road date tonight. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4.5 vs Orlando Magic, 10:30 pm ET - The Magic are in a tough scheduling spot here with this being the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days. They are coming off a loss last night to the Clippers 93-104 and trailed by as many as 18-points in that game. The Magic have gotten off to a solid 9-7 SU start and are winning with their defense. The Magic rank 2nd in Defensive Efficiency allowing just 1.046 points per possession. Orlando’s offense has struggled though, ranking 25th in Offensive Efficiency. A tired Magic defense will have a tough time slowing down the Lakers offense that is 4th in points per possession at 1.184 and has scored 120 or more points in 4 of their last five games. Los Angeles has added a viable perimeter scoring option in Dalton Knecht who gives them the 3-point threat they desperately needed. The Lakers are 8th in team EFG% compared to the Magic who rank 25th in that stat category. Yes, the Lakers defense is not good, but this is a game where they can simply outscore a tired opponent. Orlando is 15-16 ATS their last 31 when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of -7.5ppg. Lastly, when we take a closer look at the Magic’s road results we see they have a 1-6 SU record on the road against similar competition to the Lakers. Overall, the Magic have a negative road point differential of minus -6.1ppg, the Lakers home differential is an average of +8.4ppg.

#728 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Pick'em over Memphis, Thursday at 10 PM ET - This is a tough situational spot for Memphis. They make the long travel to San Francisco, and they leave right after this game for Hawaii and face National Champ UConn on Monday in the Maui Invitational. On top of that this is a late start at 10 PM ET. The Tigers may not be fully focused here and if not, they will lose this game in our opinion. The Dons were a solid 23-11 last season and they bring back a bunch of their key players from that team with 3 starters back and 4 of their top 6 scorers from last season. Nearly 60% of their minutes return. This is a huge game for USF vs a national brand type team with Memphis coming to town so this veteran squad (4 seniors in the starting line up) will be fully focused. Memphis is talented but they bring nearly a completely new team to the court this season with 7 of their top 8 players coming from the transfer portal. We think this team will have their ups and downs with a below average coach, Penny Hardaway, at the helm. Especially in tough situations like this. Memphis has hit nearly 50% of their 3 point shots so far this season and that has to regress on the road vs a very good defensive team. USF ranks 23rd in eFG% allowed and in the top 70 in defensive efficiency (ranked in top 40 in defensive efficiency last season). While this is not the Dons actual home court (Golden State Warriors home court in San Francisco) they do play here a few times during the season so they are used to this venue. In games played at their home court and here last season USF was 15-2 with their only 2 losses coming vs Gonzaga (27-8 record last season) and St Mary’s (26-8 record last season). We think San Francisco has a solid coaching edge here as well with Chris Gerlufsen sporting a very good 47-15 record in his 3 seasons here. We’ll call for USF to get the outright win on Thursday.

ASA NBA top play on Chicago Bulls +8 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - We backed the Bucks the other night and lost when they hosted the Rockets and won but failed to cover the -3.5-point spread. Milwaukee is just not the team everyone expected them to be this season with a 5-9 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.1ppg (19th). The Bulls are 6-9 SU this season and have already beaten this Milwaukee team this season by double-digits on this same court. Looking at the Efficiency Differential for each team we find there isn’t as big a difference as this line would suggest. The Bucks are -2.4 in eDIFF, the Bulls are -5.8. Last season in four meetings these two teams played overtime twice in close games and the other two were decided by 9 and 16-points. That was without Zach Lavine in the Bulls lineup. LaVine is averaging over 21ppg, over 3 made 3-pointers per game, 4 assists per game and over 5 rebounds per game. Chicago has won 3 of their last four road games outright with the lone loss in that stretch coming at Cleveland. We expect a close game throughout and will grab the points with the Bulls.

#107 ASA PLAY ON Ohio +2.5 over Toledo, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These teams are battling to get to Detroit for the MAC Championship.  Ohio has the edge now with a 5-1 conference record while Toledo sits at 4-2.  We like the Bobcats to control the line of scrimmage and ground game here which will go a long way on what is supposed to be a rainy and windy night in Toledo.  Ohio is tied for 1st place with Miami Oh and Bowling Green and the Bobcats have the best point differential in the league at +109 in conference games.  Toledo has a point differential of just +15 and is 1 game out of first place.  The Bobcats have the MAC’s #1 defense allowing just 260 YPG and they are allowing only 15 PPG which also ranks 1st.  Ohio is also solid on the other side of the ball ranking 2nd in the MAC in total offense and 1st in rushing offense putting up 215 YPG on the ground.  Toledo is just 8th in the MAC in total offense and 5th in total defense.  The Rockets can’t run the ball at all ranking outside the top 100 in YPG on the ground and YPC.  They are facing an Ohio defense that allows only 3.4 YPC (23rd nationally) and they give up barely 100 YPG rushing.  These 2 MAC foes have played nearly identical strength of schedules this season and Ohio is better in almost every category.  The Bobcats have a +1.1 YPP margin (Toledo is +0.6) and Ohio has a YPC margin of +1.8 (Toledo is +0.0 YPC).  The Rockets do have the edge passing the ball, however with windy weather expected (20+ MPH winds in the forecast as of Tuesday) we’ll take the team that should dominate the ground game.  We’re on the Bobcats plus the points. 

#642 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana -4.5 over Rice, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - Louisiana has played one of the tougher schedules in the nation early in the season. They faced the MAC favorite Kent and lost by 4 and faced Houston (a top 5 type team) on the road on Saturday and got destroyed. It was a tough spot for ULL as Houston was coming off a rare loss vs Auburn so the Cougs were out for blood. Off that embarrassing loss, we look for Louisiana to play very well at home tonight. Rice, on the other hand, has played one of the easiest schedules to date facing 3 teams ranked outside the top 280 and 2 of those opponents rank outside the top 300. The one good team they faced was Florida State and they lost that game in Houston, This will be the Owls first road game of the season. Rice is a team with a new coach and mainly new players with only 20% of their minutes returning for last season. Only 1 returning player in their top 6 and with the players learning a new system, we expect their first road game to be a tough one. The Ragin Cajuns were the 5th best team in the Sun Belt last year and they return 50% of their minutes from a year ago. Their coaching staff is also stable with head coach Bob Marlin returning for his 16th season and he’s been very successful with a career record of 492-322 at Sam Houston and ULL. The Cajun Dome is a very tough place for visitors to win with Louisiana winning 26 of their last 29 games here. Rice hasn’t shot the ball well ranking 237th in eFG% and 254th in adjusted efficiency despite facing 3 defenses already this season ranked outside the top 200 in efficiency. And those games were at home. We look for them to struggle offensively and a hungry Louisiana team to get the home win and cover.

ASA NBA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -3 vs. Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - At some point the Bucks are going to pop and play like the team that was projected to win 50+ games. This is a spot they could certainly ‘get right’ with a home win over a solid Western Conference team in the Rockets. Houston is playing the second night of a back-to-back after defeating Chicago by 36-points yesterday. This will also be the Rockets’ 3rd game in four days and 4th in six which is tough to overcome. Milwaukee meanwhile is off an upset loss in Charlotte on Saturday after a missed call late in the game cost them the ‘W’. Consider this, the Bucks were favored by 2-points earlier this month at home against the Cavaliers who might be the best team in the NBA and are now laying nearly that same number against the Rockets. This is a perfect opportunity to buy low on the Bucks who are 69-25 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.2ppg since 2022. In that same time frame the Rockets are 26-62 SU on the road with a negative point differential of minus -6.4ppg. Yes, this Houston team is improved and playing well but Giannis and the Bucks should get this home win by 6+ points.

#306625 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rio Grande Valley +19.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8 PM ET - The Badgers left it all on the court Friday night when they topped #9 Arizona 103-88. It was an all-in game for Wisconsin after getting embarrassed last year @ Arizona. It was a game they had circled and played about as well as they could play shooting almost 50% from the field, 44% from beyond the arc and they made a whopping 41 FT’s in the game (40% of their total points). Now just a few nights removed from that court storming win, they face a no-name Texas Rio Grande Valley team that is actually pretty good. They lost at Nebraska by 20 but the Huskers made 19 more FT’s in the game and it was a misleading final as it was just a 4 point margin with under 5:00 to play. TRGV also gave #14 Creighton all they could handle on the road losing by just 13 despite a 20 point deficit at the foul line. This team likes to shoot 3’s and they make nearly 12 per game (19th nationally). The Vaqueros (whatever that is) have some momentum after losing the 2 games discussed above and enter this one off 3 straight wins. They are a veteran team that goes 9 to 10 deep with 7 of those players being upperclassmen. Wisconsin’s will travel to West Virginia later in the week to play in a tournament that includes Pitt, LSU, and UCF and we just don’t see them being completely focused on this game. Badgers win but don’t cover this big number.

#471 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals +2 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Cincinnati is in must win mode here. With their 4-6 record, the Bengals currently sit in the 9th spot in the AFC playoff race (top 7 teams make it) but a loss here and they only have a 14% chance of making the post-season. A win gives them a 40% chance so this is basically a win at all costs game. They have extra time to get ready after losing @ Baltimore 35-34 last Thursday. The Bengals are 3-2 on the road and their 2 losses away from home came by a single point vs Baltimore & KC, arguably the 2 best or 2 of the 3 best teams in the NFL. Cincy led both of those games in the 4th quarter and had their chances to win in both. They’ve been competitive in every loss with the exception of Philadelphia with 5 of their 6 losses coming by a combined 16 points. A few breaks here and there and this team could have a much better record. The Chargers are sitting with a 6-3 record but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL to date (30th ranked SOS so far). Their wins have come vs Carolina, Las Vegas, Tennessee, Cleveland, New Orleans and Denver, not a single team in that group currently above .500. All of those teams have offenses that rank in the bottom half of the NFL and 5 of those 6 rank 22nd or lower in scoring. Now they face a Cincinnati team that can put points on the board (6th in scoring) and is rolling on offense scoring 75 points the last 2 weeks. Despite playing the tougher schedule and having the worse record, the Bengals have a better YPP differential. Joe Burrow is 15-6 ATS in his career as an underdog and he has been fantastic this season leading NFL in passing yards to go along with 24 TD’s (1st in the league) and just 4 picks. He has torched zone defenses in his career and the Chargers play a top 5 rate of zone defense. He also gets WR Higgins back this week so this offense should be full strength. LA doesn’t have much of a home field advantage and we like the Bengals to win this game outright.

#453 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Browns +1 or Pick'em over New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Good spot for the Browns coming off a bye facing a Saints team that had a division game last week vs the Falcons. New Orleans ended their 7 game losing streak and won the game 20-17 but they were outgained by more than 100 yards. New Orleans QB Carr was very comfortable (0 sacks for Atlanta) vs a Falcon defense that can’t put any pressure on the QB. They rank dead last in pressure rate and sack percentage averaging less than 1 sack per game. Now Carr, whose splits are much worse vs pressure as to be expected, faces a rested Cleveland defense that ranks in the top 5 in sack percentage. It should be a different story for the Saints offense this week after they were only able to put up 20 points vs basically no pressure last Sunday. Off the bye we’re hearing Cleveland is as healthy as they’ve been all season. We expect the Browns to have some offensive success here vs a banged up New Orleans defense that ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.0 YPP. Cleveland beat Baltimore 2 weeks and ago and they’ve actually outgained 2 of their last 3 opponents with QB Winston in the line up. Their offense has averaged 343 YPG of the last 3 (up 75 yards from season total) and they are up +0.4 YPP as well over their last 3. Winston has brought some life to this offense and he should have some extra incentive here after the Saints basically cut him loose in the off-season. New Orleans fired their head coach prior to last week’s game and that often gives a team the 1 game jump. We wouldn’t even call it that last weekend as the Saints were outplayed but came away with a tight win. They come back to earth Sunday and we like the Browns to win this game.

#664 ASA PLAY ON Towson -3 over James Madison, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Love this spot for a veteran Towson team.  They have 2 losses this season, both to top 60 teams on the road.  They lost @ St Mary’s by 7 and just lost @ South Carolina by 26 points as a 7 point dog so a very poor performance.  Now they get a chance to bounce back Saturday at home vs a James Madison team that is going through massive changes.  The Dukes lost their head coach Mark Byington to Vandy and they return only 11% of their minutes from last season.  New head coach Preston Spradlin is dealing with 7 new transfers in their top 8 players.  JMU is 2-1 on the season but in their only road game they lost by double digits at Norfolk State who ranks outside the top 200 per KenPom.  Towson has a huge edge in continuity which is extremely important early in the season as most teams are trying to mesh their new players (see James Madison).  The Tigers return 4 starters from last season and 82% of their minutes (3rd most in the country) are back from a team that was 20-14 last year.  Towson struggled shooting in their 2 losses but those were vs high level defensive teams both ranked in the top 75 in defensive efficiency so far this year and for the season last year.  Now they are in a comfortable spot at home facing a JMU defense that currently ranks 355th in eFG% defense vs Ohio & Norfolk State so we look for the Towson offense to look much better on Saturday.  The Dukes have relied heavily on the 3 point shot early in the year with 62 attempts in their 2 games vs Division 1 opponents.  Now they are on the road vs a Towson team that defended the arc very well last season and it allowing just 27% from deep this year vs St Mary’s and South Carolina.  Always more difficult so shoot well on the road in an unfamiliar arena and JMU should struggle.  We like Towson to play with a purpose after a loss earlier this week and they cover this short number at home where they’ve won 21 of their last 23 games.

#382 ASA TOP PLAY ON South Carolina -13 over Missouri, Saturday at 4:15 PM ET - South Carolina is playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now with 3 straight wins all by at least 21 points. Two weeks ago at home they rolled Texas A&M 44-20 putting up 530 yards on one of the better defenses in the country. Last week was a prime letdown spot for the Gamecocks traveling to Vandy off their big A&M win. SC dominated again 28-7 outgaining the Commodores by 175 yards. That’s a Vandy team that beat Bama, nearly beat Texas (lost by 3), and took this Missouri team to OT on the road before losing by 3. On top of that, South Carolina could easily have wins over LSU (lost by 3 on a late LSU TD) and Alabama (lost by 2 @ Bama but outgained the Tide). The only team that really outplayed the Gamecocks was Ole Miss who just beat Georgia by 18 points. Missouri is the opposite situation. They have a good record (7-2) but could easily have a few more losses. They’ve had a few things go their way beating Auburn late by 4, beating Vandy in OT, and beating a way down Oklahoma team last week on a fumble return TD with 30 seconds left in the game. Their offense has really struggled (97th in YPP) and will most likely be without starting QB Cook who has a bad ankle and a hand injury. Even if he plays he’s not at 100%. His back up Pyne is not good to say the least. Facing one of the best defensive teams in the nation will make it really tough on this already below average offense. SC’s defense has allowed less than 10 points in FIVE games already this season and we wouldn’t be surprised if they do the same to Mizzou here. Comparable opponents results aren’t even close. SC beat A&M by 24, Missouri lost to A&M by 31. SC beat Vandy by 21 on the road and Mizzou topped Vandy in OT by 3 at home. SC beat Oklahoma by 29 on the road and Missouri just beat OU by 7 at home on a fumble recovery as mentioned above. SC lost @ Bama by 2, Missouri last at Bama by 34. You get the point. This one should be an easy win at home for the Gamecocks.

ASA top play on Washington Wizards +9.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - The Wizards are 2-8 SU this season and the two wins have come against this Hawks team back in October. Washington matches up well with the Hawks and can stay within this margin for the third time this season. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS at home this season as a favorite, 1-6 ATS overall with a negative point differential of minus -5.4ppg. We don’t think a team with these credentials should be laying nearly double-digits against anyone in the league. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the league with the Hawks allowing 1.182-points per possession while the Wiz give up 1.197PPP. Washington should have success from beyond the arc with the 11th best 3PT% in the NBA going up against a Hawks defense that ranks 28th in 3PT% against. Atlanta is coming off a huge road win in Boston and could suffer a hangover effect here. Washington has lost four straight on this current road trip but three of those teams were better than Atlanta. We like the dog here and the points.

#858 ASA PLAY ON Furman -3.5 over Tulane, Friday at 7 PM ET - Head coach Bob Richey has built a very solid program at Furman in his 7 years at the helm. The Paladins have won at least 20 games in 5 of his 7 seasons and he’s never had a losing season. This year he has some continuity with 53% of his minutes returning and 4 of the 5 starters are returning players from last season. Furman is 3-0 on the season topping 2 teams ranked in the top 200 including a win @ Belmont one of the better mid major programs in the country. Tulane, on the other hand, hasn’t played a team ranked in the top 300 this season. They are 3-0 playing all home games topping Louisiana Christian, UL Monroe (ranked 328th) and Alcorn State (ranked 355th). This is a huge step up on competition for the Green Wave and on the road for the first time. On the other hand, Furman has already played and beaten 2 teams that are in the same range (power rating) as Tulane. The Green Wave only have 9% of their minutes back from last year and only 1 starter this year that played any type of role on last year’s team and he was a limited reserve in 2023. This is head coach Ron Hunter’s 6th year at Tulane and he has had only 1 winning season. Furman is a tough place to play as the Paladins have won 29 of their last 34 home games. Tulane has been a terrible road team with a 16-44 SU on the road since start of the 2019 season. This number is light in our opinion and we’ll take Furman to win and cover at home Friday night.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +6 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks will more than likely be short-handed again tonight with Damian Lillard in concussion protocol which opens the door for this fisty Pistons team. Milwaukee is 3-8 SU and actually looking up at the 5-7 Pistons in the Central Division standings and the reality is the Pistons have been the better team to this point. Detroit rates slightly low than the Bucks in Offensive Efficiency but rate ahead of them defensively. The Pistons overall Efficiency differential is -2.2 compared to the Bucks at -3.4. Detroit also has the better overall average point differential and holds a key advantage in this matchup with the 2nd best rebound rate (52.6%) going up against the Bucks 20th ranked rebound rate (49.3%). Going back to the start of last season the Bucks are 9-17 ATS against the Central Division with a negative points differential of minus -0.5ppg. Milwaukee hasn’t been great when playing without rest either at 7-9 ATS their last sixteen. Detroit is 7-1 ATS as a dog this season and undervalued by the Books. Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS as a chalk this season. We will grab the Dog and points in this one.

#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio -10 over Eastern Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 have similar records (Ohio 6-3 & EMU 5-4) but the key stats aren’t even close. EMU is extremely fortunate to have a winning record right now. They could easily be sitting with 2 or 3 wins on the season rather than 5. The Eagles have a negative point differential in conference play and on the season this team has a YPP margin of -1.3, a YPR margin of -1.1, and a yards per pass attempt margin of -1.8. Those are the stats of a team that is well below .500. They’ve been fortunate in the turnover category ranking in the top 25 nationally in turnover margin. Ohio is 4-1 in MAC play with a point differential of +84 which is the best in conference play. They’ve allowed the least points in conference play (61) while scoring the 2nd most in MAC games (165). The Bobcats are 4-0 at home winning by an average of +18 PPG. When comparing the key stats we spoke about above for EMU, the Bobcats are +1.0 YPP, +1.8 YPR, and +0.4 yards per pass attempt. They are rolling right now as well, winning 4 of their last 5 game with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Miami OH who is playing as well as anyone in the MAC right now. 3 of Ohio’s 4 wins during that stretch have come by at least 20 points and their 1 close win they led CMU 24-0 in the 3rd quarter and took their foot off the gas and won 27-25. They learned from that mistake and have stayed aggressive with a lead winning their last 2 games by a combined score of 88-16. EMU has played only 2 road games in conference play this year vs Kent and Akron, the 2 worst teams in the MAC, who have a combined record of 2-16. They beat Kent, who is 0-9 on the season, but lost @ Akron. Now they face one of the top teams in the MAC and we expect Ohio to control this game from start to finish. Lay it.

ASA play on Atlanta Hawks +15.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:10 PM ET - We successfully bet on the Celtics favored by 10-points in Atlanta a few weeks ago, a 123-93 Boston win. Today we flip and back the Hawks plus the points. Boston had an axe to grind in the first meeting as the Hawks won 2 games against them late last season. Now the C’s are coming off a big road win in Milwaukee, laying a huge number against a team that they recently beat by 30 points. Last season the four meetings between these two teams were all decided by 10-points or less with Atlanta winning two of them. The Hawks have been off since November 9th and should be fresh for tonight’s game. Despite a 4-7 SU record the Hawks have a -5.5-points per game differential and only two of their losses have come by more than this point spread. Boston had an average +/- at home last season of +14.4ppg, which has dipped to +8.8ppg this season. The Hawks had the worst spread record in the Division last season at 4-15 ATS BUT they had a positive point differential of +0.3ppg. The Celtics were 10-6-3 ATS in Division play with a positive differential of +11.3ppg. Boston has a below average FG% at 45% while the Hawks are slightly above average at 46.4%. We like Atlanta to hang within double-digits tonight.

#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We’ll be the first to admit, we thought the change in Pittsburgh from QB Fields to Wilson was a mistake, but clearly not. The Steelers offense has put up 37 and 26 points with Wilson under center with 832 total yards at 6.6 Yards Per Play. It’s a small sample size, but those numbers would be the 2nd best in the league behind only Baltimore. The Steelers offense is averaging 138 rushing yards per game (8th) and should put up big numbers against a Commander's defense that ranks 29th in RYPG allowed at 143. With the running game established, Wilson and the Steelers passing attack can exploit a Washington D that allows the 24th highest completion percentage in the NFL and gives up 6.8 yards per attempt. The Commanders QB Daniels is special, and this offense has excelled this season, but the Steelers/Tomlin defense will be up for the task. Pittsburgh clearly has a scheme in place to slow Daniels as they have to play Lamar Jackson and the Ravens twice a year. Last season the Steelers D held the Ravens to 10 points twice. This will easily be the best defense the Commanders have faced this season with every opponent ranking lower than the Steelers in Yards Per Play and Total Defense. In the last 10 years the Steelers are one of the best in the NFL as an underdog with a 43-24-1 ATS record. They are also 8-4 ATS since 2020 when playing with a rest advantage. We like the Steelers to win this game outright.

#170 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Texas +3 over Army, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Army is 8-0 on the season but they’ve played the 132nd strength of schedule out of 134 teams. The teams they’ve faced this season have a combined record of 10-35 SU vs FBS opponents and none of those teams currently have a .500 or better record. Last week Army struggled with an Air Force team that is 0-7 this year vs FBS opponents and the Cadets had just 250 total yards on 5.0 YPP. That was vs an AF defense that was giving up 410 YPG on 6.5 YPP entering that contest. Army played without their starting QB Daily in that game and there is an obvious huge drop off if he doesn’t play. He was seen in a walking boot this week and hasn’t practiced although head coach Jeff Monken said he is questionable. Even if he does get the nod, he won’t be 100% with a bad foot and that’s not ideal for a running QB. On defense, Army is facing a UNT attack that is averaging 41 PPG (6th in the nation) and ranks 3rd in the country in total offense (528 YPG). The Cadets haven’t seen an offense anywhere near this level as all 8 teams they’ve faced rank 65th or lower in total offense. UNT has played the much tougher schedule and they sit at 5-3 on the season. The Mean Green have lost 2 straight games and are coming off a bye in a must win spot. The extra week is perfect timing preparing for a unique Army offense. In those back to back losses, North Texas faced 2 of the top teams in the AAC (Tulane & Memphis) and lost 1 game in each but outgained both of those really solid opponents. As we mentioned Army is in a letdown spot off rival Air Force and the Cadets next game is vs Notre Dame. We like North Texas to win this game outright on Saturday at home giving Army their first loss of the season.

#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas +2.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Great situational spot for KU here. The Jayhawks are playing their best FB of the season and coming off a bye. Meanwhile they catch ISU off their first loss of the season and to be perfectly honest, the Cyclones haven’t played well over the last few weeks. They’ve been playing with fire and it caught up to them last week in a home loss vs a pretty average Texas Tech team. ISU’s offense was only able to generate 22 points (they lost 23-22) vs a Tech defense that had allowed the most points in the Big 12 entering last week. The previous Saturday, Iowa State needed a late surge at home to beat another pretty average team, UCF. The Cyclones scored a TD with 30 seconds remaining in that one to pick up the 38-35 wins. UCF ran for over 350 yards in that game and that is a big concern here as well. KU is a very good running team, with a mobile QB (17th nationally in rushing) and Iowa State’s defense simply hasn’t been good containing the run this year ranking 93rd in rush defense and 110th in YPC allowed. Kansas is playing really well right now and they very well coached with 2 full weeks to get ready for this game. KU nearly upset a very good KSU team on the road in their most recent game. The Jayhawks ran for 5.6 YPC in that 29-27 loss vs a very good Wildcat rush defense. The Cats scored a TD with less than 2:00 minutes remaining int the game to get that home win. All of KSU’s other home wins have been blowouts. A week prior to that tight loss, KU rolled a Houston team that is playing very well right now. They beat the Cougars 42-14 which is Houston’s only loss since late September. Houston’s wins as of late include Kansas State, Utah, and TCU. We like the value here as KU was +2.5 @ Iowa State last year and now getting the same number at home (game will be played @ Arrowhead Stadium in KC). ISU gets knocked off for the 2nd straight week. Take Kansas.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -7 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Houston, we have a problem! The Bucks look and play like a team in complete disarray. There is a power struggle going on in Milwaukee with Doc Rivers and the front office as he wants full control, and they aren’t going to let that happen. In the 2022-23 season the Bucks were 4th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.119-points per possession. Last season they slipped to 19th in DEFF allowing 1.184PPP. This season they rank 21st allowing 1.173PPP. At least they have their offensive to rely on. Not really, the Bucks are 22nd in OEFF at 1.009-points per possession. The Knicks are adjusting to a major roster shift with the addition of Karl Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges and have underachieved with a 3-4 start. NY ranks 4th in OEFF and 20th in DEFF but you know this defense will improve under coach Thibodeau. The Bucks are coming off a game on Thursday against Utah and the Knicks are rested. New York has only played two home games this season so you can bet the home crowd will be extra energized. The Knicks were 33-17 SU at home last season with an average +/- of +5.8PPG. The Bucks were 19-29 SU on the road last season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG.

#110 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -5.5 over Cincinnati Bengals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bengals have a losing record currently at 4-5 despite playing the 2nd easiest strength of schedule in the NFL.  They haven’t beaten a team that is currently above .500 and their 4 wins have come vs teams that have a combined 8 wins (Carolina, NYG, Las Vegas, and Cleveland).  Cincy played a little better offensively last week putting up 41 points on a bad Raiders team, but only averaged 5.3 YPP so that was a bit misleading.  In their 3 games prior to that this offense wasn’t playing great to say the least.  In that 3 game stretch prior to LV (vs Eagles, Browns, and Giants), the Bengals averaged just 18 PPG on 269 YPG.  Now they have some key injuries on that side of the ball with WR Higgins still doubtful, RB Moss out, and TE All now out for the season.  We’re not sure they can keep up with this Ravens offense that has scored at least 40 points in 3 of their last 5 games.  Last week they hosted a Denver defense that led the NFL allowing just 4.4 YPP and Baltimore put up 7.3 YPP vs that stop unit and 41 points.  Baltimore also added WR Diontae Johnson to their arsenal this week in a trade with the Panthers.  The Birds are the only team in the NFL averaging over 7.0 YPP on the season and in their first meeting with Cincinnati on the road, they put up 41 points on 6.8 YPP.  The Bengals were playing at the top of their game offensively at that point of the season and still lost 41-38 at home.  Over their last 15 home wins, since 2022, the Ravens have won those games by an average of +16 PPG.  Cincy simply isn’t playing at that level on offense right now and on the road, short week, we just don’t see them staying within a TD here.  Lay it. 

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4 at San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Blazers will be one of the bottom teams in the NBA again this season but today they are in a great spot to get a ‘W’ over the Spurs. San Antonio is coming off a game last night in Houston and will be playing their 3rd game in four nights. It’s also their 4th game in six days so fatigue becomes a factor. Portland meanwhile is rested having last played on November 4th in New Orleans. The Blazers won that game 118-100, shooting 55% overall and finishing the game with +8 rebounds. Portland looked good in the game before that, in a 6-point loss in Phoenix. Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in EFG% with the Spurs ranking 22nd, the Blazers are 29th. These teams are near identical in Defensive Efficiency on the season but in their last 3 games the Blazers have been significantly better. San Antonio is 3-11 SU their last fourteen games when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of minus -11.4PPG. Portland has the best cover rate in the NBA since the start of last season at 71.4% when playing with 2-3 days rest. Easy call here to grab the points with the Blazers.

ASA top play on Phoenix Suns -5 vs. Miami Heat – 9 PM ET - We love the spot for the Suns at home against a Heat team who continues to underachieve. Miami is 3-3 SU this season, but their wins have come against the Wizards, Pistons and Hornets. They have lost to the three quality teams they’ve faced, the Kings, Knicks and Magic…all at home. Now they go on the road to face a Suns team that is a legitimate contender in the Western Conference. The Suns have faced a tough schedule to start the season and currently sit 6-1 SU. Despite facing good competition, the Suns have an average +/- of +3.7PPG overall and are +6PPG at home. Phoenix is 9th in Offensive Efficiency, 10th in Defensive Efficiency. In comparison, the Heat rank 14th in DEFF and 22nd in OEFF, again against a weak schedule. Miami is shooting just 43.3% on the season (25th) and will have a tough time making shots against this Suns team that is 4th in the league in FG% defense. Phoenix will also have an advantage offensively with the 5th best 3PT% going against the Heat’s 11th ranked 3PT% defense. Phoenix won both meetings a year ago and have gotten better this season while the Heat have gotten worse. Lay it with the Suns.

ASA play on Washington Wizards +9.5 vs Miami Heat, 9:40 PM ET - The Wizards have gotten off to a 2-2 start with the two losses coming against the Celtics and Cavaliers who are currently the two best teams in the East. Washington’s two wins have come against the Atlanta Hawks who we grade slightly lower than this Heat team. Miami is also 2-2 SU with wins against the Pistons and Hornets, losses to the Knicks and Magic. The Wiz rate slightly lower than the Heat in Net Rating at -4.6 compared to -3.1. Miami was 8-6-2 ATS as a road chalk last season but their average +/- in those games was just +4.3PPG which clearly isn’t enough to cover this spread. Washington is going to push the tempo in this game and Miami is not shooting it well with an EFG% of 52.1% which is 21st in the NBA. We are not sold Miami is invested yet in this season. Take the Dog here.

#366 ASA TOP PLAY ON SMU -7 over Pittsburgh, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Fishy line here with SMU favored by a full TD over an undefeated Pitt team. The Panthers, despite being undefeated, are trending down in our opinion. Their offense simply hasn’t played well for the last 6 straight quarters. A few weeks ago they faced Cal in a perfect spot for Pitt at home and struggled to win that game 17-15 (we were on Pitt in that game). They didn’t score a single point in the 2nd half of that game and were held to less than 100 yards after halftime. Last week, coming off a bye, if you simply looked at the final score you would think Pitt was back in stride offensively scoring 41 points vs Syracuse. Not so fast. 21 of their 41 points came on 3 interception returns for TD’s by the Panthers. The fact is, they had only 217 total yards and were held to less than 5.0 YPP in that win. Now they go on the road for just the 2nd time since September 7th to face the best team they’ve seen this season. SMU is 7-1 on the year and playing really well right now. Their only loss was by 3 points vs BYU who stands at 8-0. Last week it looks like they squeaked by @ Duke winning 28-27 but the Mustangs dominated the stats (+1.2 YPP margin). SMU had a horrible -6 turnover margin in last week’s game @ Duke and still won on the road which is extremely impressive. The Stangs are coming off a 3-0, 3 game road trip and are back at home for the first time since September. They have scored an average of 50 PPG over their last 10 home games which dates back to the start of last season. SMU starting QB Jennings was a question mark early in the week but it looks like he’ll be a full go on Saturday. We like SMU by more than a TD in this one.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -4 vs Denver Nuggets, 9:40 PM ET - We won’t buy into the revenge angle for the Nuggets here who the Wolves eliminated from the playoffs last season. Minnesota is in a favorable scheduling situation here, coming off a home loss to the Mavs and having been at home since October 25th. Minnesota was 33-16 SU at home last season with an average plus/minus of +7.3PPG. Denver is playing their 3rd straight road game and have struggled in their first two at Toronto and Brooklyn who are lower tiered teams in the NBA. The Nuggets are currently 21st in defensive net rating and 17th in ONR. Those are extremely low considering their strength of schedule. Minnesota is 13th in ONR, 11th in DNR and have faced a much better schedule which included the Mavs, Kings and Lakers. Denver is not shooting it well with an EFG% of 49.4% which ranks 26th in the NBA. The Wolves are 6th in EFG% at 56.5%. This is a good spot to back the Wolves coming off a home loss. Minnesota was 24-8 SU off a loss last year and won those games by an average of +9.8PPG.

#312 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets -2 over Houston Texans, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Jets have lost 5 straight both SU and ATS but this team is much better than their 2-6 record. We’re getting some value because of that. The Jets were just favored by 7 @ New England and Houston played @ New England a few weeks ago and was laying 6.5. That tells us the Jets should be favored by a FG here. 4 of NY’s 5 losses have come by 6 points or less and they were ahead or tied in the 4th quarter in 3 of those games. NY has a positive YPG and YPP differential and their defense ranks 4th in the NFL (total defense) and 2nd in YPP allowed. This team is just happy to be back at home as they’ve been on the road for 3 of their last 4 games. Their most recent home game was a 23-20 loss vs a very good Buffalo team and the Jets outgained the Bills in that game both overall yardage and YPP. They are off an embarrassing loss @ New England last week that should give them some extra motivation coming into this game. That was a flukey win for the Pats as the Jets dominated outgaining New England by 2.0 YPP. In that game the Jets became the first team in NFL history to lose a game despite scoring 20+ points, holding their opponent to 250 or fewer yards, and not turning the ball over. Houston is coming off a big 3 point division win over the Colts and this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. The Texans are 6-2 on the season but they’ve been far from dominant with a point differential of just +9 on the season and both of their losses have come on the road. The Houston offense is averaging just 319 YPG on the road on 4.9 YPP which is the 10th worst mark on the road in the NFL. QB CJ Stroud QB rating, completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, etc… road splits are all much lower than his home splits. Now on a short week vs a very good defense, we think this one sets up very nicely for the Jets to pick up a home win.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:10 PM ET - Don’t get sucked into betting the playoff revenge angle here with the Pacers who the Celtics eliminated last year in the conference finals. Boston looks better than ever and get key contributor Sam Hauser back in the lineup tonight which provides more space with another perimeter shooter for the Celtics. Boston has already beaten two Eastern Conference contenders, the Bucks and Knicks, both by double-digits. Indiana struggled to beat the Pistons, then lost three straight to teams that rate below Boston. Boston was 53-13 SU against the East last season with an average +/- of +9.9PPG. They also won their road games by an average of +6.8PPG. Boston was one of the best defensive efficiency teams in the NBA last year, Indiana was one of the worst. The Celtics were one of the best offensive efficiency teams in the league last year as were the Pacers. This season the C’s are still the best OEFF team and one of the best DEFF. The Pacers are again bad defensively and their OEFF numbers have dropped to 23rd in the league. We will lay it here with Boston.

#307 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State +2.5 over Liberty, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’ve been waiting for this spot for a few weeks now looking forward to jumping on Jacksonville State as a dog. Liberty has been playing with fire all season long winning a number of close games vs poor opponents and it came back to bite them in their most recent game. That was a loss @ Kennesaw State who many, including us, had power rated as the worst team in FBS. That loss pushed this number down lower than it would have been but we still like JSU getting points here. In their loss vs Kennesaw, a team that JSU beat 63-24, Liberty allowed the Owls to score 27 points on 5.2 YPP. That may not seem like a big deal but KSU was averaging just 3.7 YPP entering the game (last in the nation) and they were averaging just 13 PPG. The Flames were undefeated entering that game but had really struggled to beat teams they should handle easily including NM State and FIU, among others. They continue to be priced according to their success last season but they simply aren’t anywhere near that caliber this year. The Flames are 1-5 ATS failing to cover the spread by a combined 80 points (almost 2 TD’s per game). Both teams have played an easy schedule to date but while Liberty is struggling to win by margin along with losing to what might be the worst team in the country, JSU has won and covered their last 4 games by margins of 37, 39, 41, and 22 points. The 2 common opponents this year are Kennesaw (JSU won by 39 / Liberty lost by 3) and NM State (JSU won by 41 / Liberty won by 6). Jacksonville St QB Huff is a little banged up but we’re hearing he’ll be OK for this one. His back up Smothers was originally at Nebraska and has solid experience if needed. This game would have set up perfectly for us if Liberty wouldn’t have lost to Kennesaw, however we still think the better team is getting points so we’ll stick with it.

ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +9 at Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are expected to be much improved this season with some added veteran help in Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr and Malik Beasley to pair with a solid young rotation. Unfortunately for the Pistons they started the season with games against the Celtics, Cavs and Pacers to go 0-3. Detroit was very competitive in all three games though, losing by 6 to the Celts, 12 to the Cavs and 6 to Indiana. Miami was blown out in their home opener by the Magic, then won in Charlotte most recently by 8-points. The Heat can’t be trusted as a big home favorite with a 30-43-2 ATS record in that role since the start of the 2022 season. Last year the Heat won at home by just 1.5PPG, the 19th lowest number in the NBA. Detroit has a winning overall ATS record as a road dog the past two seasons at 22-20 versus the number. Detroit is better than their 0-3 SU record and have value at this number.

#280 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks +3.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 4 PM ET - This is a much bigger game for Seattle as everyone in the NFC West is bunched together within 1 game of each other. Buffalo, on the other hand, has a huge lead in the AFC East with a 5-2 record well ahead of all other teams in the division who are 2-4 or worse. The Bills are overvalued in our opinion. Despite their record, they are getting outgained by 20+ YPG on the season. Their easy wins have come vs Jacksonville, Tennessee (with back up QB) and Miami (Tua injured early in that win) who have a combined 5-14 record on the season. They’ve only faced 2 teams this season that currently have a winning record and lost both games vs Baltimore & Houston. The Seahawks got back on track last week after a 3 game losing streak (2 of those losses were vs Detroit and San Francisco) by beating a very solid Atlanta team on the road 34-14. The Seattle defense, which is slowly getting back to healthy, looked very good holding a red hot Falcons offense (who scored 72 points the previous 2 weeks) to just 14 points. The Seahawks might be down WR Metcalf but there is an outside chance he plays and they are getting 2 key DB’s back this week to help the defense. Situational edge to Seattle as well as they had 10 days off prior to facing Atlanta while Buffalo is playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks. Seattle has one of the top home field advantages in the NFL and as a dog at home they’ve covered 19 of their last 26 games (73%). Take the points.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +1.5 at L.A. Lakers – 10:40 PM ET - The Lakers have a pair of huge wins to start the season over the Timberwolves and Suns but are in a tough spot here. Los Angeles is playing the second night of a back-to-back and catch a Kings team coming off a home loss a few nights back. Sacramento played well in their opener and lost by 2-points to the Timberwolves. Sacramento has a new addition to their roster in DeMar DeRozen who scored 26-points and grabbed 8 rebounds in his Kings debut. This game means more to the Kings who are often looked at as the other California team behind the Lakers and Clippers. Sacramento has won 8 of the last 10 meetings and 5 straight, 3 in a row on this court. These two teams were nearly identical last season in both offensive and defensive efficiency rating, but we are expecting the Kings to be better this season with the addition of DeRozan. This line opened with the Lakers as a -3.5-point favorite and was quickly bet down to the current number. That would suggest that either LeBron or AD could be sitting for this game after playing last night. We like Sacramento here.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -3 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets were a surprise team last season with a 41-41 record and just missed making the play in tournament. Expectations are much higher this season as their win total was set 12 wins higher than last year's number. They were just 8-point favorites at home against the Hornets and were upset after a horrendous shooting performance. The Rockets shot just 37% overall and 30% from Deep. Charlotte meanwhile hit 46% from the field, 38% from beyond the arc. Memphis is coming off a road win in Utah 126-124 as a -2.5-point favorite. One glaring aspect from that game was the rebound disparity as the Grizzlies were minus -13 boards in that game. Houston was 12th in Rebound Rate last season, Memphis was 25th. The other advantage the Rockets have is their transition defense that is one of the best in the league. Two years ago, with Morant the Grizzlies were very reliant on their transition offense which was 2nd in the NBA. The Rockets can nullify that advantage with their defense and if they shoot an average percentage will win this game by 8+ points. Houston won 3 of four meetings a year ago against this Memphis team with all three wins coming by 20, 13 and 7-points. Great line value here with Houston.

ASA play on Minnesota Vikings -3 at LA Rams – 8:20 PM ET - We are buying on the Vikings to bounce back after the last second loss to the Lions on Sunday. While the Vikings were playing one of the best teams in the NFL, the Rams were facing one of the worst in the LV Raiders. The Rams won a tight game 20-15 and averaged just 5.0YPP against a porous Raiders defense. The Vikings averaged 7.4YPP against a very good Lions defense that allows just 5.5YPP on the season. The Rams still have significant injuries and an offensive line that can’t protect QB Stafford. That will be a major issue against the Vikings Brian Flores and his blitz happy scheme. The Rams allow 2.8 sacks per game and have a sack percentage of 7.87%, both rank 20th in the NFL. Minnesota’s defense is tied for 2nd in the league with 4.0 sacks per game and 8th in sack percentage. Conversely, Sam Darnold of the Vikings won’t be pressured in this game which presents a dangerous situation for the Rams secondary trying to contain Jefferson and Addison. The Rams are averaging just 1.8 sacks per game, 26th in the NFL. If we do a line comparison, the Packers were favored by 3-points here a few weeks ago. The Lions were favored by 5.5-points in Week 1. We would have the Vikings favored by -4.5 points here. Home underdogs on Thursday Night Football have been a wallet-busting bet of late with a 7-17 ATS run dating back 24 games.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -5.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx, Game 5 Sunday Oct 20th - In game 1 the Liberty obviously were the much better team for 35 minutes of game 1 and led by as many as 18-points and then lost. In Game 2 at home the Liberty bounced back and won by 14-points. These teams then split two close games in Games 3&4 with both being decided by 1-basket in each. Now back home we like the Liberty to earn the Championship and win by margin. New York was 2nd in both offensive & defensive rebounds per game during the regular season and have continued to dominate the glass in the postseason. The Liberty have outrebounded their opponents in every playoff game including the Finals against this Lynx team. Minnesota in comparison is last in rebounding percentage in the playoffs. The Liberty were 16-4 SU at home during the regular season with an average +/- of +7.0PPG. NY is 5-1 SU at home in the postseason with a +8.3PPG differential. Home teams in the WNBA Finals in this situation off a loss have historically been very good ATS. New York is 8-1 SU this season when coming off a loss. Lay it here with NY.

#409 ASA PLAY ON Auburn +4 over Missouri, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Missouri is 5-1 on the season and ranked in the top 20.  Auburn is 2-4 on the season yet this line is only Mizzou -4.5 at home?  The Auburn Tigers are much better than their record this season.  Despite being 2 games under .500, Auburn has outgained their opponents by an average of +107 YPG and they have a +2.3 YPP margin.  That’s facing a very tough schedule to date (36th SOS) having already played Georgia, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.  The problem with Auburn has been turnovers.  They are already -11 turnovers on the season which is dead last in the country.  If they can rectify that, this team is really quite good.  They rank in the top 35 nationally in both total offense and total defense.  Missouri has played a light weight schedule this season.  Their strength of schedule is ranked 111th which is the 2nd easiest at the Power 4 level ahead of only Indiana.  They’ve faced only 1 team this season power rated inside our top 50 and that was Texas A&M who rolled Missouri 41-10 outgaining the Tigers 512 to 254.  The only other 2 teams with a pulse that Mizzou has faced this year were home games vs Vandy (Tigers won in OT) and Boston College (Tigers won by 6).  Despite playing an ultra easy schedule, Missouri is just +1.1 YPP margin which is far worse than Auburn’s who has faced a much more difficult slate.  Auburn is coming off a bye week and they’ve won all 3 meetings vs Missouri.  If Auburn can keep their turnovers in check, they’ll have a great shot to win this game outright. 

ASA play on NY Jets +1 vs. Buffalo Bills, Monday 8:20 PM ET - One of the bigger public Sports Books is carrying this line as the Bills favored by 1-point with an overwhelming number of bets and “Joe’s” money on Buffalo. When we see that we immediately look at the other side of the ticket. Buffalo is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd straight road game after facing the Ravens and Texans on the road. The Bills lost both of those games after starting the season 3-0 against subpar competition. We are betting the Jets will get a bump this week with the coaching change as Saleh wasn’t well liked in the locker room and new coach Jeff Ulbrich is. They should also be better offensively with a new play caller Todd Downing takes over for Nathaniel Hackett. We have seen a regression in the Bills offense the past two weeks facing solid defenses similar to the Jets. Buffalo’s offense could be limited tonight with WR Shakir and RB Cook both listed as questionable. The Jets have not run the ball effectively with RB Hall this season ranking last in the league in RYPG but that could change tonight versus a banged-up Bills defense that is 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 32nd in yards per rush allowed at 5.2. The home team has won 5 straight in this series, make it 6 after tonight.

#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars +1 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - This game is being played at Tottenham Stadium on London.  The Jags are more than familiar with playing in London as they’ve already been their 11 times (6-5 SU record).  In fact, they face Chicago on Sunday, then stay in London to play New England next week as well.  We like the been there, done that, situation for Jacksonville vs a young Chicago team making their first trip overseas since 2019.  The Bears are 3-2 on the season but a bit of a fraud in our opinion.  Their wins have come vs Tennessee, LA Rams, and Carolina who have a combined record of 3-11 and Chicago was outgained in 2 of those wins.  As you might expect based on those wins, the Bears have played one of the easiest strength of schedules to date (30th) yet they are still getting outgained by 0.6 YPP (3rd worst in the NFL).  They’ve only outgained 1 opponent on a YPP basis this season and that was Carolina rates as one of the worst few teams in the NFL.  Jacksonville was considered by many a playoff caliber team entering the season.  They have disappointed with a 1-4 record, however they have a better YPP margin than the Bears and have played the much more difficult schedule thus far.  Three of their four losses have coming by 5 points or less and they have some momentum heading overseas after beating the Colts last Sunday.  The offense, which ranks 11th in YPP, looked better than it has all season in that win putting up 37 points on nearly 500 yards.  Head coach Doug Pederson took over play calling duties for that one and it showed on the field.  The Bears offense is averaging only 287 YPG and 4.4 YPP which is 29th in the league.  The Jags should control the trenches here with their +0.9 YPC margin vs Chicago’s -0.7 YPC margin.  QB Trevor Lawrence finally had a breakout game last Sunday with 370 yards passing giving him some much needed confidence heading into this one.  Our power ratings have Jacksonville as a small favorite here so we’ll grab the points with the Jags.

#124 ASA PLAY ON West Virginia +3.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This is a perfect spot for overvalued vs undervalued in our opinion. WVU is 3-2 on the season with losses vs Penn State and Pitt who have a combined record of 10-0. The Mountaineers weren’t overly competitive in week 1 vs PSU which is understandable vs a top 5 team. They blew a 10 point lead with less than 4 minutes remaining vs Pitt so this WVU team could easily be 4-1. ISU steps in with an undefeated record but they’ve played a much easier schedule. Their best win was 20-19 vs in-state rival Iowa, a game that ISU never led until their game winning FG with 6 seconds left in the contest. Their other wins have come vs North Dakota, Arkansas State, Baylor (2-4 record), and Houston (2-4 record). The Cyclones are stepping up in class here and laying a full FG on the road. WVU has some solid momentum and should be fairly rested here as they roasted Oklahoma State 38-14 on the road last week and the Mountaineers were coming off a bye for that one. They absolutely dominated the Cowboys outgained them 558 to 227, including 389 to 36 on the ground. Speaking of the ground, West Virginia has one of the best rushing attacks in the country averaging 239 YPG on 6.0 YPC. They should control the ground game vs an Iowa State defense that allowed 155 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC. Dating back to early in the 2021 season, ISU has been a road favorite 9 times and they have a 3-6 ATS & SU record in those games. They are overvalued here due to their perfect mark vs a weak schedule. We like WVU to win this game at home.

#128 ASA TOP PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3 over California, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Just a terrible situational spot for the Golden Bears. This team will have a hard time getting up off the mat after blowing a huge lead at home vs Miami last week. Cal led the Canes by 20 points with just over 10 minutes remaining in game last Saturday and they lost 39-38. Miami scored 3 TD’s in the final 10:28 to get the 1 point win including the game winner with 28 seconds remaining. Now they have to make the long 2500 mile trip to Pittsburgh which will be the Bears 3rd trip to the east time zone since Sept 7th. That means this Cal team will have already traveled almost 13,000 miles in the last 5 weeks when they land in Pittsburgh for this game. Their devastating home loss vs Miami on Saturday actually wasn’t as close as the score would indicate. How the Bears pulled out to a 20 point lead is tough to comprehend as they were outgained by 205 total yards and had 18 fewer first downs. The Canes held a 15 minute time of possession edge and ran 86 offensive snaps which should lead the Cal defense running out of gas in this game, especially as the game wears on. While the Bears were blowing a huge lead at home, Pitt went into North Carolina and won 34-24 outgaining the Heels by over 100 yards. They won by 10 despite the Tar Heels scoring on an 86 yard pick 6 which was potentially a 14 point turnaround with Pitt going into score. The Panthers are now 5-0 with solid wins over UNC, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. It’s not a fluke the Panthers are undefeated as their stats have been dominant. On the season they are +20 PPG, +152 YPG, +2.3 YPP, and +2.9 yards per rush. Cal is 3-2 on the season and in those stats they are +8 PPG, +28 YPG, +0.7 YPP, and +0.2 yards per rush. One of their long road trips was a loss @ a bad Florida State team giving the Noles their only win so far this season. Pitt is at home and is full focused heading into a bye week. Easy win for the Panthers in this one.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -6 vs. Minnesota Lynx, Game 1 Thursday Oct 10th - Scheduling clearly favors the Liberty here who have been off for a week, while the Lynx will be playing their 3rd game this week. One thing we’ve learned this WNBA season is that depth is a huge concern for the majority of the teams in the league. It will be tough for Minnesota to get up again after their grueling 5-game series with the Sun. A demoralizing factor in this game will be the rebounding advantage the Liberty have. New York was 2nd in both offensive & defensive rebounds per game during the regular season and have continued to dominate the glass in the postseason. The Liberty have outrebounded their opponents in every playoff game and will limit the Lynx second chance opportunities. Minnesota in comparison is last in rebounding percentage in the playoffs. New York has been really good at home and has won by margin. The Liberty were 16-4 SU at home during the regular season with an average +/- of +7.0PPG. NY is 4-0 SU at home in the postseason with a +9.3PPG differential. Minnesota has beaten the Liberty 3 of four this season but this is simply a bad scheduling situation for them and will be tough to hang within double-digits.

ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints +5.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Chiefs are undefeated but their point differential is just +20 (7th in the NFL). All 4 of their wins this season have come by a TD or less. KC has won 8 of last 9 dating back to last season but 7 of those 8 wins have been one score games so they are not pulling away from teams in their wins. KC’s overall stats are pretty darn average for a team that is 4-0. They are 15th in YPP margin at +0.2 and have outgained opponents overall by just +2 YPG. On top of that, the Chiefs have LOTS of injuries on offense missing their top RB as well as their top 3 WR’s entering the season. The Saints are now 2-2 so this is a bigger game for them. Their 2 wins were both blowouts, but their losses were each down to the wire losing by 3 vs Philly and by 2 vs Atlanta. In their 26-24 loss @ Atlanta last week, New Orleans outgained the Falcons but the Birds had 2 defensive TD’s in the game. Despite their 2-2 record, New Orleans has outgained 3 of their 4 opponents and they have a better YPP margin when compared to the Chiefs. The Saints have been a long term money maker on the road going 35-18 ATS away from home over the last 6+ seasons. Lastly, in MNF games when an AFC team faces an NFC team, the home teams have been terrible with a spread record of just 12-32-2 ATS (27.3%). We give the Saints a decent shot at the upset here but worst case we like them to keep this close.