ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -1.5 over Iowa, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

We understand the Gophs are on a terrible run right now losing 9 straight games.  However, we feel that gives us some nice value here as they are basically near a pick-em at home vs a bad Iowa team.  With that in mind, let’s not forget their opponent is just as bad as the two have identical 3-13 Big Ten records.  Minnesota played well @ Wisconsin on Monday night and had the Badgers down 7 with under 5:00 minutes to go in their own building but lost in OT.  They showed some fight in that game.  Now in their home finale as they honor senior Nate Mason (top 10 in all time scoring and 2nd in all time assists) we look for them to play with a lot of emotion here.  We’re not wild about the short turnaround here for the Gophers but this situation should help that with this being their last home game.  Iowa is not a good team but on the road they take that “terribleness” to new heights.  The Hawkeyes are just 1-9 on the road with their lone win coming at Illinois in OT well over a month ago.  In their other Big Ten road games they’ve lost by margins of 15, 18, 24, 14, 16, 18, and 13 points.  They’ve had only one road loss all season that came by single digits and that was a 6-point loss @ Iowa State way back in early December!  Iowa has allowed 85 PPG on the road and opponents have hit almost 50% of their FG attempts.  That’s nothing new for this team as they are terrible defensively ranking dead last in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and eFG% defense.  Over the weekend, the worst shooting team in the conference (Indiana) hit 56% of their shots vs this Iowa defense.  The Hoosiers won the game in Iowa City.  Now this young team travels to play in a meaningless game with their home finale vs Northwestern on deck this weekend.  We foresee another bad road performance.  Minnesota had high hopes entering the year and at one point they had a 13-3 record.  They’ve had some injuries and suspensions that have hurt, but this team can be decent if motivated.  One of their better players, Dupree McBrayer, came back from injury vs Wisconsin and helped them almost take the Badgers down on the road.  Tonight we expect a motivated Minnesota team that is looking to avenge a 14 point loss @ Iowa a few weeks ago.  The Gophers come up big at home tonight and roll to a comfortable win.

ASA PLAY ON 10* DePaul +19 over Villanova, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET

This is a terrible spot for Nova.  We expect them to be a bit flat and simply want to get out of this game with a win.  A blowout is not needed and we’re not sure they will be in the right frame of mind to win this one by a huge margin.  The Cats are coming off a statement win @ Xavier over the weekend.  That gave them a sweep over Xavier, the 2nd best team in the Big East, and a huge leg up in the conference race.  They also have a huge game on deck @ Creighton and another @ Seton Hall after that.  After beating DePaul by 18 points way back in December, we can’t imagine the Blue Devils will have the Cats full attention here.  Speaking of the Devils, they are one of the few teams that has been better on the road than they have been at home.  Their 3 conference wins have all come on the road.  They’ve been very competitive in most of their games vs the conference’s big dogs including a 5-point loss @ Xavier, a 5-point loss @ Seton Hall over the weekend, a 1 point loss to Creighton, 7 point setback to Providence and 12 point loss to Butler.  Thus, while their record is not impressive, this team fights to the end and this number is too high.  On top of that, this DePaul team is very good defensively which makes them attractive as a large underdog.  They rank 3rd in the Big East in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense.  They are also the #1 offensive rebounding which should give them a few extra possessions in this game.  We fully expect Villanova to take care of business at home tonight, however this will not be a blowout.  Take the generous points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State -3.5 over Michigan, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

We love this spot for PSU.  The Nits are in must win mode in their home finale and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  They have quietly won 6 of their last 8 games with their only losses coming @ Purdue by 3 and @ Michigan State by 8.  They had 2nd half leads in both of those road games against 2 of the top 3 Big Ten teams.  Ohio State is the 3rd team in the Big Ten’s big 3 and PSU beat them twice this year including a 23 point destruction in their most recent home game last Thursday.  They catch Michigan in a rough spot coming off a big home win over arch rival Ohio State.  It was also the Wolverines final home game so it was an emotional senior night.  Michigan is already locked into the NCAA tourney, while PSU is a bubble team so this is a much bigger game for the host team who is looking for NCAA resume wins and this would be one.  With this being their final home game and a trip to a good Nebraska team to close out the year, the Nits know this is their best chance to pick up another key win.  While Michigan is off their big home win vs OSU, they are not a great road team having already lost 4 Big Ten road games.  The Wolves rely heavily on the 3 point shot (1st in the Big Ten with 37% of their points coming from deep) which can be tough to sustain on the road, especially vs a very good defense (PSU ranks 19th nationally in defensive efficiency).  Michigan is also a terrible FT shooting team hitting only 64% (337th nationally) which could be key if the game is close down the stretch.  We just like the way PSU is playing right now (7-1 ATS their last 8) and in their final home game we say they get a double digit win. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Georgia +4 over South Carolina, Wednesday at 6:30  PM ET

South Carolina is getting a lot of love here at home as the line has moved to Gamecocks -3 after opening at pick-em.  We felt this might happen as most will look and think getting South Carolina at home in a pick-em game is value.  We disagree.  This team simply isn’t very good this year.  They are coming off their biggest win of the year beating Auburn here and a letdown might be in order vs a Georgia team they already beat on the road.  Let’s not forget that before beating Auburn (who was in a letdown spot after beating Kentucky) the Gamecocks has lost 6 straight games including 4 straight at home.  SC is the worst shooting team in the SEC ranking dead last in offensive efficiency and eFG%.  They will struggle tonight vs a motivated UGA defense that is very good ranking 13th nationally in eFG% defense and #1 in the SEC in 2 point defense.  Being a poor shooting team, the Gamecocks need to get to the line to score points as they rank #1 in the SEC in FTA/FGA ratio.  If they don’t get to the line, they are in trouble.  Georgia is very good at playing solid defense but not fouling so they are a poor match up for the SC offense.  On the flip side, South Carolina fouls more than any other team in the SEC so UGA should have an advantage at the stripe tonight.  Georgia is playing their best basketball of the season right now having just beaten Tennessee at home and Florida on the road.  Despite the result earlier in the season, the Bulldogs have dominated this series covering 22 of the last 28 meetings.  We like Georgia to win this game tonight.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -6 over Wichita State, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

We love this spot getting the best team in the AAC off a loss back at home.  Cincy dropped their first conference game this season on Thursday @ Houston 67-62 (we were on Houston).  Now we get them in an angry mood, back at home where they are 13-0 winning by an average score of 83-54!  Every one  of their home wins this year has been by double digits.  Wichita is 4-2 on the road in conference play, however they have faced only 2 of the 4 teams in the league ranked higher than 100 on the road.  They are 0-2 in those games losing @ Temple by 2 and @ Houston by 14.  The Shockers rely heavily on their offense as their defense is OK but not a shut down unit.  They’ve allowed 6 of their last 8 opponents to score more than 70 points.  The problem here is, they are facing a fantastic defense in Cincinnati.  The Bearcats are ranked #1 in the AAC in basically every key defensive category and they sit at #2 nationally in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense.  Their most recent opponent, Houston, was just the 2nd team in the last 13 for Cincinnati in which their defense allowed more than 60 points.  Another amazing stat is this Cincy defense has allowed 20 or fewer made field goals on 10 of their last 13 games.  Offensively they are a tough guard averaging 76 PPG with 4 players averaging 11 PPG or more.   With a 2 game lead over Wichita and Houston, a win here would put Cincinnati in a near uncatchable spot at the top of the AAC.  The Bearcats bounce back with a big win at home on Sunday. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington +1 over Utah, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET

This is a big game for both teams when it comes to the NCAA tourney as neither are a lock.  Both are at or near the bubble.  We like the home team here coming off a disappointing road trip which saw them lost at Oregon and at Oregon State – blowing a 13 point second half lead in the latter.  Now back at home where the Huskies are 13-2, we expect them to play with a sense of urgency here.  Utah is off back to back home wins which pushed them up the Pac 12 standings, however the Utes are still only 3-6 on the road this year.  When these two met in Utah in mid January the Utes were an 8 point favorite and won by that exact margin.  The Huskies shot terribly hitting only 38% of their shots, 11% of their 3-point attempts, and 55% of their FT’s yet still only lost on the road by 8.  Expect them to shoot much better at home tonight.  We know they will get it done defensively as the Huskies are #1 in the Pac 12 in defensive efficiency and #1 in 3 point FG% defense (league games).  That will make it tough on Utah tonight as they pick up 40% of their points from beyond the arc (2nd in the Pac 12).  Road teams that rely on the 3 point shot are not teams we look to side with, especially if facing a top notch defense which they are tonight.  Utah is a slight favorite in this game and this is definitely a “wrong team favored” situation for us.  We like Washington tonight at home. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston +3 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network

Most will look at this low number and side with the team that is ranked #5 in the nation, 12-0 in the AAC, and on a 16 game winning streak.  That team would be Cincinnati.  Not surprising that as of this writing we’re seeing about 70% of the bets in Vegas & offshore on the Bearcats.  Looks too obvious to most to side with Cincy.  Not us.  We like Houston in this game.  This is an absolute HUGE home game for the Cougs who are 19-5 overall and 9-3 in the ACC tied for 2nd place with Wichita State.  As of now, Houston is a bubble team with most experts having them in the tourney at a 9 or 10 seed.  A win here might just guarantee them a spot in the Big Dance and they know it.  The Cougars are a perfect 12-0 at home winning by an average of 21 PPG.  And while they’ve played some lightweights here as every team in the AAC does, they’ve also destroyed some very good teams including Arkansas (by 26) and Wichita State (by 14).  These two met in Cincinnati earlier this season and Houston gave the Bearcats the best game they’ve had all year at home losing 80-70.  The Cougars actually led by 18 in the first half and the game was tied with under 10:00 minutes remaining.  The Bearcats shot better (48% to 42%) and were +14 at the FT line and even with that it was a tight game down the stretch.  The Bearcats are on the road for their second straight game after winning @ SMU on Sunday (Mustangs were without 2 starters including their top player Shake Milton).  Cincinnati also has a huge game on Saturday at home vs Wichita State.  The Bearcats also have a 3 game lead in the AAC so this one is not nearly as important to them as it is to Houston.  This is the highest ranked opponent Houston has played host to since 2009 and they are ready for this one.  Houston wins outright but just in case we have a 3 point cushion to work with.  Take Houston and the points in this game.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Boise State -2.5 over Nevada, Wednesday at 11 PM ET on ESPNU

The two best teams in the MWC face off tonight with Nevada (10-2) sitting one game in the loss column ahead of Boise (10-3).  These two met in Nevada on January 20th and the game went to the wire with the Wolfpack winning by 6.  Nevada’s largest lead of the game was just 7 so Boise was right there the whole way.  That was despite making only 3 of their 21 three point attempts (14%).  If the Broncos, who are one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the nation (37th), shoot that poorly from deep on the road and still almost win, we feel they can definitely pull it off here at Taco Bell Arena.  Speaking of their home court, the Broncos are 13-0 at home this year and have one of the top home court winning 46 of their last 50 games here.  Boise has won their 13 home games this year by an average of 18 PPG while shooting 51%.  Nevada has been good on the road but let’s remember they were expected to win the vast majority of their road games to this point.  They’ve been favored in every road game but two this year and they lost both of those games SU & ATS.  Their top player, Caleb Martin, is also not at 100%.  He has a foot problem that kept him out of a game last week which ended in a home loss to UNLV.  Martin came back this weekend in Nevada’s home win over San Diego State, however he’s been in a walking boot this week.  Martin scored 28 points in their first meeting with Boise so he’s obviously a big key to Nevada’s success.  We like Boise to pick up a home win tonight.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -4.5 over LA Clippers, 8PM ET – We love this situation with Boston coming off not one, but two home losses with the most recent being a blowout on National TV. They will rebound here with a max effort prior to the All-Star Break. Boston was just crushed at home by their rivals the Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points which is significant as they are 4-0 SU & ATS when coming off a double-digit loss this season. The Celts are 21-10 SU at home with an average differential of +4.5PPG which is 11th best in the NBA. The difference here is defense as these two teams are similar in terms of offensive efficiency ratings but defensively the Celtics are far superior with the best DEFF in the NBA while the Clippers are 15th. L.A. has a losing road record and an average differential of -1PPG which is in the bottom half of the NBA. The Clippers have also played an ‘average’ road schedule and now step up against one of the best teams in the league, in a bad mood. In their last three road games the Clippers got a big win over the Pistons and their former teammate Blake Griffin, then lost at Philly by 14 as a 5-point dog, then won at Brooklyn by 13. Great spot to play on a motivated ‘A’ level team off a loss against a ‘B’ level team off a road win. Lay the points!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame +11 over North Carolina, Monday at 7:00 PM ET

This game is MUCH more important for Notre Dame and the situational spot heavily favors the Irish.  Notre Dame comes into this game firmly on the NCAA bubble with a 15-10 record and a win here would really boost their resume.  The Irish went through a lull from mid January into early February losing 7 straight games.  They played without their starting point guard and top player, Matt Farrell, in four of those games.  Now that Farrell is back and at 100%, Notre Dame has been playing much better winning 2 straight games by double digits over BC and Florida State.  The take some much needed confidence into this revenge match up with UNC.  In their first meeting the Heels came away with a tight 69-68 win.  The Heels hit two FT’s with 7 seconds remaining for the win and ended the game on a 9-2 run.  Notre Dame was held without a field goal for the final 6:00 minutes, played without Farrell, and still almost won the game.  ND will be ready here and we expect a top effort.  We can’t guarantee that with UNC.  That’s because the Heels are coming off two HUGE games beating Duke here on Thursday and then getting revenge on Saturday by topping NC State on the road.  Not only is UNC off two huge, emotional wins, this will be their 3rd game in 5 days.  Not ideal for a team that plays 6 players for the most part.  All 5 starters have logged 29+ minutes in each of the last 2 games and only one other player put up double digit minutes in each game.  UNC already has 2 home losses this year (Wofford & NC State) and 3 of their 6 ACC home wins have come by 8 points or less.  We’ll call for a tight game with Notre Dame getting the cover.   

ASA PLAY ON: Utah Jazz (+3) over Portland Trailblazers, 9PM ET – Two hot teams square off tonight and the bet here is on the underdog. While the Blazers have won 9 of their last fourteen games it’s not as impressive as you might think. Of those nine wins only two came against good teams, Minnesota and Indiana. Utah on the other hand has won 8 straight and has some solid wins at New Orleans, at San Antonio, home against Golden State and at Toronto. Portland is 16-10 SU at home this year, but their home point differential is 16th in the NBA (average) at +2.5PPG. On the year the Jazz have an average point differential of -3.2PPG but they’ve had a ton of injuries early in the season. Portland was recently a home favorite of 3-points against Charlotte who isn’t nearly as good as this Jazz team. Utah has covered 6 in a row on the road against teams with winning home records and don’t be surprised when they win this game outright. 

ASA PLAY ON: #507 Washington Wizards (-6) over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET - This is a great spot to play on a good team off a couple losses (Washington) versus a bad team off an upset win as a dog (Chicago). Washington has won 5 straight games prior to a pair of losses to the Celtics and 76ers in their most recent two games. Included in that 5 game run the Wiz had road victories by 9 over Indiana, 17 over Orlando and 25 over Atlanta. The Bulls are very comparable to those three teams (worse than Indiana). Prior to last night's upset win over the T'Wolves, the Bulls had lost 7 in a row overall, and 3 in a row at home. Chicago has the 6th worst home point differential in the NBA at home this year and a negative differential of -9PPG their last five. Bulls just 2-7 SU (3-6 ATS) when playing without rest this season and are forced to sit Zach Lavine tonight on the second day of a back to back.The Wiz have covered 10 of the last thirteen meetings. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Missouri -5.5 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

The Tigers are playing as well as they have all season.  In their last 3 games they beat Alabama on the road by 9 to give the Tide their only SEC loss at home, topped Kentucky by 9 at home, and won @ Ole Miss earlier this week.  Right before their run of 3 straight wins, Mizzou traveled to Mississippi State and lost by 12.  Now they get a chance at revenge just two weeks after that loss.  In that game a poor shooting Bulldog team (10th in the SEC in eFG%) hit 55% of their shots in that win, which was Mizzou’s worst defensive performance of the SEC season.  Don’t expect a repeat here as the Tigers have been very good defensively (2nd in the SEC in eFG% defense – league games) and they have been lights out on that end of the court since their loss to MSU allowing just 35% to their last 3 opponents combined (64 shots made out of 180 attempts).  On top of that, the Bulldogs are a terrible shooting team on the road making only 38% of their shots which is one reason they are only 1-5 in road games this season.  Missouri is 10-2 at home this year outscoring their opponents by +13 points.  They are hitting over 50% of their shots at Mizzou Arena while allowing just 38%.  The favorite in this series has covered of the last 9 and we have a feeling Missouri rolls to an easy win in this spot.

ASA PLAY ON: #816 Utah Jazz (-6) over Charlotte Hornets, 9PM ET – We’ve faded the Hornets two games in a row successfully and will play against them here too. Charlotte is in a tough scheduling situation as they played in Denver (higher altitude) on Monday, Portland last night which was OT and are now back in the thin air of Utah tonight. Not too mention, the Jazz are RED HOT right now having won 7 straight games and five of those wins came against current playoff caliber teams. Yes, the Jazz just traded away Rodney Hood but he was coming off the bench and it’s not like they lose a starter. Utah has found a rhythm offensively as they’ve put up 120 or more in 4 of their last five games and their two most recent wins came by 30 over the Warriors and 12 versus the Clippers. Three Hornets starters logged 39+ minutes last night so fatigue will certainly be a factor tonight for Charlotte. Charlotte is just 3-6 SU and ATS when playing the second night of a back to back this season. Utah is also playing with revenge as they recently lost in Charlotte. Utah has a +19.8PPG differential in their last five games which is the best number in the NBA over that 5-game span. It all adds up to a double-digit win by Utah tonight. Easy call here. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Loyola Chicago -11 over Drake, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET

We’ll stick with the red hot team in Loyola here.  We were on the Ramblers as a 5* play over Missouri State on Saturday and they rolled to an easy 97-75 win.  That gives them 8 wins in their last 9 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Bradley by 2 points.  They faced this Drake team in late January on the road and trounced them 80-57 and we see no reason it changes here.  Loyola is the best team in the MVC and their stats bear that out as they rank #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in league play.  The Ramblers are easily the best shooting team in the conference ranking #1 in 2 point FG% and 3 point FG%.  At home this teams shoots a ridiculous 56% from the field and 46% from beyond the arc.  They should have a field day here, just as they did in the first game when they hit 56% of their shots, vs a Drake defense that simply isn’t very good (254th nationally in eFG% defense).  The Bulldog defense has allowed at least 50% from the field in 4 of their last 6 games and they are running into a buzzsaw in this game.  The Ramblers sit in 1st place by just one game over Southern Illinois so there will be not letting up for the host here.  Drake is coming off a big road win on Saturday @ Bradley but they are just 3-8 away from home this year and this will be their 3rd road game in their last 4.  Loyola pulls away in the 2nd half for an easy win.

ASA PLAY ON: #506 NY KNICKS (+1.5) over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:35PM ET - There is some tremendous value in this number as these same two teams just met a few nights ago in Milwaukee where the Bucks were favored by -4.5 points. The natural swing here should have the Knicks as a 4-point home favorite yet they are tabbed the dog here. The Knicks lost in Milwaukee by 2 points in a game they executed poorly down the stretch and should have won that game outright. They then came home and suffered a 'hangover' loss to the Hawks. New York is 16-10 SU at home and have the 10th best home differential in the NBA at +4.9PPG. The Bucks have played well since the firing of head coach Jason Kidd and are off a road win over Brooklyn. Milwaukee lost backup PG Dellavedova to an injury in that game and Giannis Antetokounmpo twisted his ankle for the second time in the past five games. The Greek Freak is expected to play tonight but certainly won't be 100%. NY has covered 5 straight when coming off a ATS loss, while Bucks just 2-6 ATS their last eight on the road off a win. Take the Knicks with revenge. 

ASA #710 Denver Nuggets -5.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 10PM ET - We don't have a problem laying points with a Denver team at home, facing an un-rested Hornets team . Granted, the Hornets have won 3 straight and 6 of their last ten but look at who those wins have come against (Phoenix, Indiana at home and at Atlanta). In other words we're really not impressed with Charlotte's current 'success' if you want to call it that. Denver on the other hand is 5 -2 SU their last seven games which included impressive wins over Portland, OKC and Golden State. The Nuggets two losses came against the Spurs and Celtics. Denver is 21-7 SU at home this season with an average differential of plus +6.1PPG. Charlotte is just 3-5 SU when playing the second day of a back to back and are stuck in the higher altitude of Denver which is a problem when playing without rest. Denver gets a double-digit home win here. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Maryland -8.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday 1:00 PM ET on CBS

This is an absolute must win for the Terps.  They have now lost 3 straight games and at 15-9 and 4-7 in Big Ten play they are currently out of the Big Dance.  A loss here would be devastating to their push to get back to the bubble and inside the Dance.  Maryland is much better than their 4-7 conference mark as they’ve played the toughest slate in the Big Ten.  They’ve already played both MSU and Purdue twice (the 2 best teams in the league) and they’ve also already faced OSU and Michigan, who are rated 3rd and 4th in the Big Ten.  Against the lower tier teams in the Big Ten (rated 85th nationally or lower) Maryland has had their way.  The Terps beat Illinois on the road, rolled over both Iowa and Minnesota at home, and their lone loss vs the bottom quarter of the Big Ten was @ Indiana by 3, a game they led by 5 with a few minutes remaining.  The Terps are 12-2 at home with their only losses coming by 5 vs Purdue and by 6 vs MSU, a game they led by 14 at half.  Wisconsin is obviously way down from previous years coming in with just a 10-13 record overall and 3-8 in the Big Ten.  This team is VERY thin right and they are starting to run out of gas.  They just finished a 2 game homestand which they felt they had a chance to take both games and instead lost by 11 to Nebraska and by 8 to Northwestern.  Now going on the road after that demoralizing home stand will be very tough.  Maryland’s offense is very sold scoring 79 PPG at home on 49% shooting.  Wisconsin’s offense has very few options and it putting up only 56 PPG on the road.  Maryland comes out with their pants on fire in a game they need to win and builds a comfortable lead vs the Badgers just as they did vs Michigan State in their most recent home game.  The difference is, Wisconsin doesn’t have the firepower to come back as MSU did.  This has the makings of an EASY win for Maryland. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas -3 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 6:15 PM ET on ESPN

We’ve gone against OU on the road a few times as they are a drastically different team away from home.  Last Saturday we took Alabama at home vs the Sooners and picked up an easy win.  Oklahoma is now 1-4 on the road in Big 12 play with their only win coming by 1 point in OT.  This team shoots just 40% on the road and loses by an average score of 80-85.  Shooting will continue to be a problem here as they face a shut down Texas defense that ranks 4th nationally in defensive efficiency.  The Sooners are a very young team that looks like they are starting to hit a wall.  They are just 3-3 over their last 6 games with their wins coming by 2 points, 5 points, and 5 points in OT (all home wins).  One of their key players, Christian James (11 PPG), has been battling the flu and missed most of Thursday’s practice.  It looks like James is expected to play but won’t be at 100%.  The Longhorns lone Big 12 home loss was at the hands of Kansas (a 4 point loss).  Since that loss they have won and covered 4 straight at home.  The Horns are coming off a road loss but nearly pulled the upset at Texas Tech earlier this week as they lost in OT but led by 5 with under 2:00 minutes remaining.  This is a huge home game for the Horns NCAA resume as they currently sit at 14-8 overall.  The host has won 8 of the last 10 in this rivalry and we like Texas to get the win and cover here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Loyola Chicago -7.5 over Missouri State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

#548 ASA PLAY ON Loyola Chicago -7 over Missouri State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

When at full strength, which they are right now, Loyola is the best team in the Missouri Valley in our opinion.  Their top player, Clayton Custer (an Iowa State transfer), missed 5 games in late December/early January and the Ramblers lost 3 of those 5.  They were also missing another key starter, Ben Richardson, who also returned around the same time as Custer.  Since those two have come back they’ve rolled up 7 wins in their last 8 games.  Their only loss during that stretch was on Wednesday @ Bradley where Loyola lost by 2 points.  Now back at home off a loss we really like Loyola to win big here.  Speaking of home, the Ramblers 3 wins here since getting back to full strength have come by margins of 16, 14, and 23 points.  They shoot almost 55% here while allowing their opponents to make only 40%.  Getting Loyola at home off a loss is key here as well.  Playing a freefalling Missouri State teams doesn’t  hurt either.  The Bears have lost 6 of their last 8 games with their only 2 wins during that stretch coming at home vs two of the MVC’s lower tier teams (Indiana State & Valpo).  They have lost 4 straight road games and are 0-8 ATS their last 8 games.  Over their last 5 games Missouri State is shooting just 37% and scoring only 62 points while allowing 69.  Earlier this week the Bears were routed at home 76-60 by Illinois State who we rate as the 8th best team in the MVC.  MSU was favored by 7 points in that game.  The Bears are also dealing with a weird situation as far as injuries go.  Two of their players, including key starter Reggie Scurry (9 PPG, 4 RPG, and lead team making 50% of his shots), will miss this game due to blisters on their feet caused by a cryotherapy session earlier this week.  Missouri State won the first meeting in a game that went to the wire 64-59.  Loyola was WITHOUT both Custer and Richardson in that game and still almost pulled off the road win.  This one has the makings of a blowout.  Take LOYOLA CHICAGO

ASA PLAY ON 10* Coastal Carolina +3 over Texas State, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET

This line is begging you to take Texas State at home laying only 3 points.  Texas State is 14-9 overall and 7-3 in the Sun Belt yet laying only 3 at home to a Coastal Carolina team that is 10-13 overall and 4-6 in conference play.  CC is the better team in our opinion and this line tells you that.  They’ve played the much tougher overall schedule and their numbers in conference play (offensive & defensive efficiency) are better than Texas State’s.  These two met earlier in the year and Texas State pulled off the 53-48 road upset at 6.5 point underdogs.  CC was brutal offensively in that game shooting just 32% from the field including making only 1 three point shot in 17 attempts (6%).  Texas State has won 7 games in the Sun Belt but we feel they are very lucky to sit with that record.  Their conference wins have come by margins of 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 5, and 6 points.  In other words, they could just as easily be 3-7 in league play.  Their home wins on the season have come by an average score of 65-63.  Coastal has played a number of tight games this year some vs very good teams including a 4 point loss to Wake Forest and a 2 point loss to South Carolina.  Eight of their thirteen losses have come by 6 points or less.  The Chanticleers are on a roll right now coming into this game off 3 straight wins.  We like Coastal Carolina to win this one outright.    

ASA PLAY ON 10* South Carolina -4.5 over Mississippi State, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET

Mississippi State has a solid overall record of 15-6, but we feel they are overrated and their extremely weak non-conference schedule is catching up with this team.  The Bulldogs began the season winning 13 of their first 14 games, however they played a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 125 in non-conference play and that was Cincinnati.  By the way, that was MSU’s one loss as the Bearcats rolled them by 15 points.  Now that they’ve gotten into conference play, Mississippi State has lost 5 of their last 7 with their only wins during that stretch coming at home vs a struggling Missouri team and vs Vandy who is the worst team in the conference.  They are 0-5 in true road games this year with their losses coming by margins of 6, 6, 13, 15, and 17 points.  The Bulldogs are the most inefficient offense in the SEC (conference games) and the worst 3 point shooting team in the league.  It gets worse on the road where the average only 57 PPG on a paltry 36% shooting.  That’s a huge problem tonight as they face an aggressive South Carolina defense that ranks 23rd nationally in defensive efficiency.  They’ll also be catching South Carolina, a Final 4 team last year, in an angry mood as they blew a home game on Saturday vs a very good Texas Tech team.  The Gamecocks led by 5 late in the game only to blow the lead and lose at home.  They have played a brutal schedule as of late facing Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas Tech (all top 26 teams in Ken Pom ratings) and they split those games beating Kentucky & Florida.  South Carolina has 2 road games following this contest so at 13-8 overall and 4-4 in the SEC, this becomes a huge game for this team.  They can’t afford a loss here and we’ll lay the small number with the Gamecocks here!

ASA PLAY ON 10* UW Milwaukee -4 over Illinois Chicago, Monday at 8:00 PM ET

Milwaukee is playing their best basketball of the year as we speak winning 3 straight games, all at home.  This one marks their 5th consecutive home game so this team is confident, rested, and focused in right now.  They’ve been waiting for this game with UIC for a few weeks now as they lost to the Flames on the road 88-73 back on January 12th.  That game was an entirely different scenario as a tired UWM team playing their 4th straight road game in the span of 9 days was simply out of gas.  They shot poorly (35%) while allowing UIC to scorch the nets (52%).  The Panthers never led in the game and it was simply one of their poorest performances of the year.  Now they get a chance at revenge in a completely different situation just 2 weeks later.  We also feel the line value is with the Panthers as they were favored by 1-point AT Illinois Chicago just two weeks ago and now we are getting them at home only laying around 4 points.  That Milwaukee team, as we mentioned, was a tired crew and struggled to slow down the Flames.  This Milwaukee team is playing much better on both ends of the floor but especially on defense where they have held 3 straight opponents to less than 40% shooting – including Horizon leading Wright State (9-1) who’s only league loss was here vs UWM just 9 days ago.  We were on UIC on Saturday and picked up a win as they covered vs IUPUI.  We obviously realize the Flames are on a solid roll right now winning 6 of their last 7 games.  We also realize that 5 of those 6 wins have come against the very bottom tier of the Horizon (Cleveland St, Youngstown St, UWGB, and IUPUI (twice).  Their only win during that stretch vs a team rated higher than 290th was vs this UWM team who, as we stated, was in a terrible spot.  The Flames are 3-7 in true road games this year with all 3 wins coming vs teams that rank below 300!  UWM gets revenge and the cover here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* South Dakota State -10.5 over IPFW, Saturday at 5:15 PM ET

South Dakota State had their 8 game winning streak come to an end on Wednesday in a 19 point loss @ South Dakota.  It was a 6 point game at half but South Dakota was able to pull away in the 2nd as a normally sharp shooting SDSU team (26th nationally in eFG%) made only 40% of their shots.  It was a poor overall game and you can bet the Jackrabbits are set to respond at home where they are undefeated this year winning by an average margin of 20 PPG.  Amazingly this SDSU team has won 50 of their last 52 home games!  The Jackrabbits are 17-6 on the year (5-1 in the Summit) and all 6 losses have come against teams ranked in the top 110 (4 in the top 90).  By comparison, IPFW has 9 losses and 7 of those have come against teams ranked 146 or lower – 4 vs teams ranked below 200.  The Matadors are just 3-7 on the road this year and have been a big time money burner away from home going just 5-23 ATS their last 28 road games.  IPFW simply isn’t playing very well right now with a 3-3 record their last 6 games, although it could be worse as 2 of those 3 wins came at home in games they had to come from behind in the 2nd half to win.  Those come from behind, 4 point home wins came against 6-14 Nebraska Omaha and 11-10 North Dakota State.  Not an impressive 6 game stretch for IPFW to say the least.  South Dakota State, along with South Dakota, are easily the top 2 teams in the Summit this year.  We get them off a bad loss back at home where they’ve won 10 of their 11 games this year by double digits.  They have dominated IPFW here winning each of the last 7 seasons by blowout margins of 10, 16, 29, 28, 26, 36, and 35.  SDSU is 11-2 ATS at home and the host has covered 11 of the last 12 in this series.  We see another blowout on the way in this one.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois -2 over Indiana, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET on Big Ten Network

Things that make you go hmm?  The Illini come into this game with an 0-8 record in the Big Ten.  Indiana is 5-3.  Despite that the Illini opened as a 1 point favorite and have moved up from there.  We agree with the move.  Illinois is undervalued due to their conference record.  We sided with this team on Monday night as they were +12 vs Michigan State and the barely missed the cover losing by 13 against one of the top 2 teams in the league (along with Purdue).  They obviously have a quick turn around here after playing 2 nights ago, however they have the advantage in this situation playing again at home.  Indiana also played on Monday night, they came from 5 points down vs Maryland with just a few minutes to go in the game to pick up a 61-58 win.  Now the Hoosiers are on the road in this tough scheduling spot.  Speaking of the road, IU is 1-5 in true road games this year losing by an average margin of 12 points per game.  The Hoosiers are scoring only 63 PPG on the road and making just 41% of their shots while their defense is allowing over 48%.  Illinois is 9-3 at home this season with two of their three losses coming in OT.  The only team that handled Illinois at home was Michigan State as we discussed and they are light year’s better than this Indiana team.  The host is hungry for a win here and they catch Indiana off a come from behind big home win and the Hoosiers host Purdue next.  Illinois gets their first Big Ten win here.

ASA PLAY ON: #509 Boston Celtics (-5) over LA Lakers, 10:35PM ET - Geez, I'm surprised that the Lakers are on national TV again? It's stunning to think that a team with a 26-56 record from last season and is 17-29 this year would get so much national attention. It's obvious that Lonzo Ball is going to be a nice player in the NBA but he's not destined for greatness and the over-hype has run its course in my opinion. But I am happy to watch Brad Stevenson's Celtics with Kyrie Irving and Jayson Tatum. The Celts have lost three straight games with most recent being an embarrassing home loss to the Magic so expect a big effort here. Prior to the 3-game slide the C's had won 7 straight games and 5 of their last six on the road. The Lakers were on a 9-game losing streak from late December through early January before winning 4 in a row, losing 2, then winning two. Looking at the Lakers current six wins we find 3 came against, arguably, the three worst teams in the league and four of the six were against teams with losing records. Now they face the best team in the East who is motivated after three straight losses. There are only 9 teams in the NBA that have a negative point differential at home and L.A. is one of them. Celtics road differential of +4.1PPG is 4th best in the league. Lay the short number here with Boston!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois +12 over Michigan State, Monday at 9:00 PM ET on Fox Sports One

Sparty coming off a blowout win over Indiana and Illinois coming off their worst outing of the year sets this up as a dog play.  Because of those results the value is definitely on the Illini at home.  For comparison’s sake the Illini were 10 point underdogs AT Michigan just a few weeks ago.  Now they are getting more than that, at home vs a team Michigan beat on the road this year.   MSU is obviously a very good team but they’ve had a more than favorable schedule over the last month.  Over their last 9 games dating back to mid December, the Spartans have been on the road just ONCE.  That was a 14 point loss @ Ohio State.  They’ve actually only played 2 true road games the entire season, their loss @ OSU and a 10 point win @ Rutgers.  Illinois is 10-10 on the season but winless in the Big Ten.  That’s a very deceiving record as the Illini have been competitive in every game this year with the exception of their most recent loss @ Wisconsin on Friday night.  This team simply didn’t show up for that game and after that embarrassing performance, we like this team to play very well at home on Monday night.  Of Illinois’ 10 losses only ONE has come by more than 10 points and three were in OT.  At home they are 9-2 on the season and both losses came in OT.  The Spartans are still a very young team with 4 sophomores and 1 freshman in the starting line up.  How do they handle a rare road game coming off a blowout win?  They might be a bit fat and happy and the Illini are hungry taking on a name opponent at home.  MSU wins this game, but it’s much tighter than this number.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -7 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET

This line has dropped from 9.5 down to -7 with concerns of Tom Brady’s throwing hand which was banged up in practice earlier this week.  Brady was seen practicing and throwing with a glove on his hand late in the week.  We all know the Pats and Belichick are very good at throwing out this type of stuff leading into big games and while we don’t necessarily want to say this is a hoax as Brady may have banged his hand in practice, we’ll guess it’s not all that serious and he’ll be fine.  With that being said, we like the Pats here.  While Jacksonville won a huge game @ Pittsburgh last week, let’s remember the Steelers were their own worst enemy AGAIN!  The Steelers outgained the Jags by 170 yards but had 2 turnovers (including a fumble returned for a TD) and were stopped twice in Jacksonville territory on 4th and short situations.  While we did like Pittsburgh last week, they are not well coached in our opinion and have a tendency to play great some games and sort of get in their own way in others.  New England doesn’t do that.  They will not “give” the game away to Jacksonville by gifting them with mistakes as Pitt did in both games vs the Jags.  The Patriots have a huge experience edge in this situations as well as a massive coaching edge.  This is their 7th consecutive AFC Championship game while Jacksonville last appeared in this game way back in 1999 (two years after we opened our doors as ASA Inc)!  The Patriots have a big edge offensively and a Grand Canyon sized edge at QB.  While the Jags are very good defensively, let’s not forget that the Patriot defense has given up fewer points than any other team in the NFL since week 5.  The Jags pass defense ranks #1 in the NFL but they have faced only 3 QB’s all season long ranked in the top 10 in QBR and two of those teams lit them up pretty good.  Situationally, the Jags are coming off possibly their biggest win in franchise history and they are on the road again this week.  This is actually their 4th road game in the last 5 week.  They scored 45 points in their win last week which is a terrible omen as teams they score 40 or more points in a playoff win are a terrible 4-25 ATS their following game!  Let’s also not forget this Jacksonville offense has scored only 10 points in each of their previous two games vs Buffalo and Tennessee leading into last week’s win.  Brady has started in 21 home playoff games and he’s won 18 of them.  He’s also covered 65% of his home playoff games.  We think the Jags will hang around for awhile  the Pats, who’ve outscored their opponents 80-25 in the 2nd half of their last 4 playoffs games, will pull away and pick up a double digit win.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Bradley -4.5 over Evansville, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET

We really love the way this game sets up for Bradley.  They are coming off back to back road losses @ Loyola Chicago and @ Illinois State so the Braves really need a win at home on Saturday.  Speaking of home, this team is 9-0 at home this year and they have won 12 of their last 13 at Carver Arena with their lone loss during that run coming by 2 points last season.  Not only are they tough to beat at home, they cover here at a ridiculous rate.   Bradley is a big time money making 21-4-2 ATS (84%) their last 27 home games!  The Braves are fantastic defensively ranking 22nd nationally in eFG% defense and even better at home where they allow opponents to make only 34% of their shot attempts.  Their average margin of victory at home this year is 14 points.  They take on an Evansville team that is 1-5 on the road this season.  The Aces have lost 6 of their last 8 games, they are a banged up team right now and threw up a red flag for us on Saturday when they lost at home to an Indiana State team that had lost 4 of their previous 5 road games.  That’s all well and good but we have another motivator in our back pocket and that is the fact that these two teams played just 12 days ago @ Evansville.  The Aces won the game easily 68-44 in what was one of Bradley’s worst defensive performances of the year.  Evansville hit 50% of their shots, 53% of their 3 pointers and made every FT they took for the game (10 for 10).  That won’t come close to happening again as the Braves are back at home where they play shut down defense.  That’s a problem for a below average shooting Evansville team that averages just 62 PPG on the road.  Evansville was just a 1 point favorite at home less than two weeks ago which tells us Bradley should be -7 or -8 in this game.  Getting them in this spot with a low number is great value in our opinion.  Bradley rolls and wins again at home.  

ASA PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall -1.5 over Xavier, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET

Seton Hall is coming off a road loss @ Creighton on Wednesday night.  We felt that was a great spot for the Blue Jays who were coming off a road loss and we cashed nicely with Creighton.  Now we feel the Hall is in a great spot to bounce back off that loss.  The Pirates are a perfect 11-0 at home beating teams by an average score of 82-66.  They are one of the more veteran teams in the Big East with 4 upperclassmen in the starting line up that have played A LOT of basketball together.  All 4 started on last year’s 21-12 NCAA tourney team, including 6’10 double/double machine Angel Delgado.  This veteran team has a tendency to bounce back strong after a loss as they’ve had only three 2-game losing streaks since the start of last season (none this year).  Xavier is coming off 2 straight home wins beating Creighton and St Johns.  However all 3 of their losses on the season have come away from home and they are getting outscored by 2 points per game on the road.  The Musketeers have lost each of their last 2 road games getting whipped by 24 points @ Villanova and losing by 9 @ Providence.  The host has won 6 of the last 7 in this series with Seton Hall winning 71-64 at home last year as a 4 point favorite.  Xavier has never won @ Seton Hall in Big East play and we don’t expect that to change on Saturday.  The Hall picks up a win and cover at home. 

#560 ASA PLAY ON #553 Butler (-5) over DePaul, 2PM ET - Butler has gone through a brutal schedule and have lost 4 of their last five games but now have an opportunity to right the ship against a struggling DePaul team. Butler is ranked 42 in KenPom rankings with the 29th rated offensive efficiency numbers and 83rd DEFF numbers. What makes those numbers more impressive is the fact they've played the 6th hardest schedule in college hoops. Just take a look at their losses this season: @ #38 Maryland, #35 Texas, #2 Purdue, @#16 Xavier, #22 Seton Hall, @#18 Creighton and @#57 Providence. Now they are coming off a loss, playing a DePaul team ranked outside of the top 100. The Blue Demons rank 160th in OEFF and 75th in DEFF with an EFG% offense that is 292 out of 351 schools. DePaul's home wins this year aren't impressive either as they've come against: Delaware State, Youngstown State, Central Connecticut, Alabama A&M and Miami OH. All of those schools rank 250th or worse and are nowhere near the caliber of this Butler team.  Given the circumstances we expect a double-digit Bulldog win. 

ASA PLAY ON: #803 Miami Heat -2.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:35PM ET - The Heat have quietly made a run in the East and currently sit atop of the Southeast Division ahead of the Wizards. Miami suffered a beat down at home by the Nets back on December 29th and then ripped off seven straight wins, lost at Chicago and then beat Milwaukee. The Heats stats from their last five games are impressive as they have the 6th best defensive efficiency numbers allowing just 1.024 points per possession. In that same five game span the Nets are allowing 1.109PPP which is 21st in the NBA and worse than their season averages. The Heat have been better offensively too, averaging 1.074 points per possession which is up from their season numbers of 1.062PPP. Brooklyn's OEFF ratings are the 4th worst in the NBA on the season and in their last five games. The Nets have an average differential of -2.5 PPG at home this season which is the 5th worst number in the league. Miami is 4-1 ATS as a small favorite in this price range this season while the Nets are 1-3 ATS as a dog in this same price. After the horrible home beating the Heat suffered to the Nets less than a month ago they'll be prepared here and set for payback. Miami has covered 10 of the last thirteen meetings. Lay it.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -7.5 over St Marys, Thursday at 9 PM ET on ESPN

These two are almost identical offensively with each ranking in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency and eFG%.  The difference here is the Zags are MUCH better defensively ranking 17th nationally in defensive efficiency compared to 128th for the Gaels.  We also can’t over state how big a home court advantage Gonzaga has.  They are 10-0 at home this year with a ridiculous average winning margin of 30 points.  They shoot 52% at home while allowing their opponents to shoot only 38%.  They have won 25 of their last 26 games at home and amazingly only ONE of those 25 wins have come by less than 10 points.  The Zags have played the much tougher schedule having already faced 6 teams ranked in the top 55 nationally and having beaten the likes of Ohio State, Texas, and Creighton.  St Mary’s has not played a single team ranked higher than 50 on the season.  Four of the five St Mary’s road games this year have come against teams ranked 221 or lower.  Now they take a massive step up on competition facing a Gonzaga team coming in at #6.  It’s also not a great scheduling spot for the Gaels as they are playing their 3rd consecutive road game on the span of a week.  When these two met here last year the Zags were favored by 5 a walloped St Marys 79-56.  That has been a common theme in this series as taking a look back to the late 1990’s, the Zags are 19-2 at home vs St Marys with 15 of those wins coming by 10 point or more!  Gonzaga also has some added motivation here as St Marys was a unanimous pick to win the West Coast Conference by the league coaches.  That fact has been circulating through the Gonzaga locker room this week and word is they are ready to prove a point tonight.  Take Gonzaga to win by double digits AGAIN at home.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Creighton -4.5 over Seton Hall, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One

These two met in December and Seton Hall had to rally from 13 down in the 2nd half to pick up the 90-84 home win.  The Jays dominated much of the game leading most of the way before the late push from the Hall.  Despite controlling most of the game, Creighton didn’t shoot particularly well shooting just 20% from 3 point range (5 for 25) from a team that normally hits 38.4% which is one of the best marks in the nation.  They were also outscored at the FT line by 11 points and yet even with those two situations, still probably should have won the game.  Now they get their 2nd crack at the Pirates.  Seton Hall is a very good 15-3 on the year but they have played only 4 true road games and split those for a 2-2 record.  That includes a 20 point loss @ Marquette and a 6 point loss at Rutgers, one of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  Their lone Big East road win was a solid 90-87 win @ Butler, however it was a game the Hall trailed by 11 with under 10:00 remaining in the game.  The Pirates never led by more than 4 points in the game so they were fairly fortunate to come out of that with a win.  Now they face a Creighton team with extra motivation and a team that is simply fantastic at home.  The Jays are perfect 11-0 at home on the season with every win coming by at least 7 points.  Creighton is one of the top shooting teams in the nation but at home they take it to another level hitting 54% of their shots and average 93 PPG.  They beat Seton Hall here last year by 14 and we also get Creighton off a loss on Saturday @ Xavier.  We were on the Musketeers in that game however this spot absolutely calls for a play on Creighton at home.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Loyola Chicago -7.5 over Southern Illinois, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET - MISSOURI VALLEY GAME OF THE MONTH

Loyola is a bit undervalued right now in our opinion.  They began the season winning 11 of their first 12 games with their only loss coming @ Boise State where nobody wins (Boise is 49-6 their last 55 home games).  The Ramblers then went through a stretch in late December where they lost 4 of 5 games, however they were without their best player, Clayton Custer (former Iowa State transfer), at that time as he was out with an injury.  Custer has since returned and Loyola has won all 3 games since he’s come back.  With Custer in the lineup this year they are 12-1.  Another key player, Ben Richardson, recently returned from injury and since he’s been back on the court, this team is 4-1.  The point is, when the Ramblers are at full strength, they might just be the best team in the Missouri Valley Conference.  This is a game they have been waiting for as well after getting swept last year vs Southern Illinois.  The Ramblers are at home for the 2nd straight game after destroying a very solid Bradley team on Saturday 81-65.  We have Bradley rated better than tonight’s opponent Southern Illinois.  The Salukis are off a huge rivalry win over Illinois State on Saturday so it won’t be a shock if they are a bit flat on the road tonight.  In that win, SIU was down by 14 points at home with just 7:00 remaining in the game and rallied for the 74-70 win.  If not for that come from behind win, this team would be just 1-4 over their last 5 games with their only win coming by 2 points at home vs Evansville.  With the win, they are still only 2-3 their last 5 and simply not playing all that well.  Part of that is they are still trying to recover from two key season ending injuries in late December/early January to key rotation players Wiley & McGill.  That has basically limited the Salukis to a 6 man rotation and we look for that to catch up to them tonight after their big come from behind win on Saturday.  Loyola has won 10 of their last 11 at home with their only loss coming when both Custer & Richardson were out.  Their average margin of victory at home is +14 points and they are hitting 55% of their shots here.  That’s a bad match up for an SIU defense that has really been poor as of late allowing opponents to hit almost 50% over their last 5 games.  We think Loyola controls this game from start to finish in an easy double digit win.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami FL +3.5 over Duke, Monday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN

The Canes have had the Dukies number as of late winning 5 of the last 8 games vs the Blue Devils and Miami is 10-3-2 their last 15 ATS in this series.  We think Duke is primed to be upset again in this game.  The Devils are young with 4 freshmen in the starting line up.  Because of that, they’ve been inconsistent at best on the road.  They’ve played 3 road games in ACC play and lost 2 of them @ BC and @ NC State, two middle to lower tier conference teams.  Their lone ACC road win was @ Pitt who is by far the worst team in the conference.  Now they face a very good Miami team and the Canes are coming off a loss @ Clemson who is 15-2 on the year.  The 9 point final margin was very deceiving as this game was tight throughout as Miami trailed just 60-57 with under 2:00 minutes remaining.  Clemson hit 57% of their shots and made 16 of 17 FT’s and despite that it was still a very tight game.  The Canes played a rare poor defensive game and we expect them to bounce back and play much better on that end of the court here.  Miami is a fantastic defensive team ranking 7th nationally in defensive efficiency and 2nd in eFG% defense.  They are a deep and veteran team with 8 players averaging more than 10 minutes per game.  They can absolutely match up athletically with the Blue Devils and this is one of the Canes games of the year so they will bring it in this game.  Miami has won 33 of their last 35 home games and we can’t pass on them getting points in this spot.  Duke goes down in this one.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Providence -1 over Butler, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One

Butler is coming off a big home win over Marquette but the road hasn’t been so kind to the Bulldogs.  They are just 1-3 in their 4 true road games this season and their one win was in OT @ Georgetown who is the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big East just ahead of DePaul.  Their other 3 road tilts were all double digit losses.  They have shot just 42% away from home and allowed their opponents to hit 48% of their shots and score 84 PPG.  The Bulldogs have also lost 3 of their last 4 games overall.  Providence is playing well right now.  They’ve won 2 straight and 4 of their last 6 with one of those two setbacks coming in OT.  Their most recent home game was an impressive 9 point win over a very good Xavier team.  The Friars are a balanced and veteran team with four players averaging 10 PPG or more, three of those players being seniors.  Since Butler joined the Big East in 2014, the Friars have dominated the series winning 7 of the 9 games and 3 of 4 at home.  With this line sitting at -1, we simply need Providence to win at home which we think they well.  This line should be higher and the Friars are the play in this game.

ASA PLAY ON: Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday 1PM ET - Let's start with the value here and the pointspread. Earlier this season Pittsburgh was favored by the same number as they are here but now the Steelers are rested off a bye week, playing with revenge and catch a Jags team trending down. Jacksonville closed the season with losses at San Francisco(6-10) and at Tennessee before a close home win over the Bills last weekend in the Wildcard. The Jaguars offense has not looked good the past two weeks with just 230 total yards last week against a Buffalo defense that was league average by our metrics. Jags QB Blake Bortles threw for just 87 yards last weekend after throwing for just 158 yards and 2 INT's the week before against the Titans. Bortles has had a QB rating of 76 or lower his last three starts and has thrown 5 INT's to just 3 TD's in that same span. The Steelers pass defense was outstanding to start the season with cornerback Joe Haden but slipped to below league average without him their final five games. Haden is back here which impacts the Steelers rush defense as they can add a player to the box to stop the run. Pittsburgh will be at full strength offensively here with WR Brown back in the lineup after a calf injury. The Steelers were 6-2 SU at home this year with impressive wins over Minnesota and a surging Ravens team at the end of the season. Pittsburgh's margin of victory in those 6 home wins was 11PPG. One of the Steelers homes losses came to this same Jacksonville team and it was one of Big Ben's worst games in his career. Roethlisberger was picked off 5 times, two of which were returned for TD's. The Steelers outgained the Jags by 58 yards yet lost by 21-points. The Jags need to run the football which will be difficult versus a Steelers stop-unit that allows just 105 rushing yards per game which is 10th in the NFL. What makes that number more meaningful is the fact that the Steelers faced 6 rushing offenses that were 11th or better in the NFL this season. Jacksonville was great against the pass this season but horrendous against the run so  expect a heavy dose of Steelers RB Bell here. Pittsburgh QB Roethlisberger is 6-1 ATS his last seven home playoff games. The nail in the coffin here is the fact the Jags played the second easiest schedule this season and their true colors started to show late in the season when games mattered. Now in this situation they get manhandled by a rested, motivated Steelers team at home. Lay it!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Boise State -3.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET on ESPN2

Tough not to strongly consider Boise at home with a low number like this.  Their home court advantage at the Taco Bell Arena is as good as any in the country.  They are a perfect 9-0 at home this year winning games by an average of margin of +22 points.  Going back further, this Boise team is 48-6 their last 54 home games!  The Broncos shoot 51% from the field at home this year and average 83 PPG while allowing only 37% and 61 PPG.  This is a very good Boise State team (14-3 record) that is one of our 3 favorites to win the Mountain West Conference along with Nevada and their opponent on Saturday, San Diego State.  The Aztecs are still solid but down a bit this year in our opinion.  They are just 2-2 on the road this season and we faded them a few weeks ago @ Wyoming where they lost 82-69 as a 3 point favorite.  Since that loss the Aztecs have won 3 straight but those wins have come against 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the MWC (San Jose St, Utah St, and Colorado St).  SDSU is a solid defensive team, but not a great shooting team ranking 203rd nationally in eFG% and 272nd in 3-point FG%.  Speaking of defense, Boise is very good on that end of the court and actually better than SDSU.  The Broncos are 15th nationally in defensive efficiency, 17th in defensive eFG% and 5th in defending the arc.  On top of that, they are a great rebounding team rank #1 in the nation on the defensive glass.  We spoke of their offense prowess at home so they have a big edge there in this game as well.  We feel that Boise is the better team overall this year and will be very focused at home here as this is a game they have circled every year.  Boise rolled to a 78-66 win here vs the Aztecs last year and we see a similar result on Saturday night.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia +3 over Atlanta, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

This is the first time EVER that a #1 seed has been an underdog at home in the playoffs.  You think Philly will be extra motivated for this one knowing they aren’t expected to even win the game?  We do.  Now of course Nick Foles isn’t Carson Wentz but he is at least an experienced back up that has had some really solid numbers in his career including his 27 TD and 2 interception season a few years ago for the Eagles.  Foles won 2 of the 3 games he started in place of Wentz with his only loss coming to end the season in a meaningless game vs Dallas as the Eagles had already locked up the #1 seed.  Now we get this team rested up, with extra motivation at home where their only loss this year was in that meaningless season ender.  Atlanta will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks and was on the west coast upsetting the Rams last week.  Speaking of that upset, teams that win outright as an underdog in the wildcard round are just 21-37 ATS (12-46 SU which applies here as Atlanta is the favorite) in the Division round.  Atlanta’s offense is nowhere near as potent as they were last season putting up nearly 1,000 fewer yards and 27 fewer TD’s than last season.  They will run into a brick wall here as the Eagle defense is really good ranking 4th in the NFL in both total defense and scoring defense.  The Philly defense allowed only 13 PPG at home this year allowing only 11 TD’s the entire season at home.  If Atlanta doesn’t get to 20 points, which we don’t think they will, they are in trouble.  That because this Falcon team is 0-6 SU this season when they don’t reach 20 points.  Weather will also benefit the Eagles here as the temperature is expected to be 21 degrees with the windchill.  Atlanta is obviously a dome team and they haven’t played in a game this year with the temp below 40 degrees.  The Birds haven’t won a game with the temp below 40 degrees since the 2009 season.  Home underdogs in the NFL playoffs are 26-13-2 ATS since 1980 and we have a feeling that Philly wins this game and hosts the NFC Championship game next week.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Xavier -3.5 over Creighton, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET on FOX

We think this is a great spot for Xavier as they are coming off 2 straight losses, both on the road.  Those losses @ Providence and @ Villanova dropped the Musketeers into a tie for 4th place in the Big East and their opponent today, Creighton, sits in 1st place with a 4-1 mark.  This is a HUGE early season home game for XU as they don’t want to drop too far behind the Blue Jays.  Home court advantage is key here as Xavier is 11-0 at home this season winning by an average margin of 19 PPG.  They shoot 49% here at the Cintas Center and allow just 37%.  They have won 38 of their last 43 home games and all but 3 of those 38 wins have come by more than 3 points which is today’s spread.  Creighton is a very good team as well but like Xavier, their road performance simply isn’t nearly as strong as when they are at home.  The Jays have played only 4 true road games this season and they are 2-2 in those games.  Their overall defensive numbers are very good, however on the road they drop off drastically allowing their opponents to hit 47% of their shots.  That will be a problem today vs a highly motivated XU team that shoots it well from deep, inside the arc, and at the FT line (78%).  Speaking of the charity stripe that could be a huge factor here if XU has a lead late and goes to the line to preserve or extend their lead.  The Musketeers simply don’t go on long losing streaks very often.  In fact, they have gone on a 3 game or more losing streak only twice since the start of the 2015 season.  We like them to break their 2 game losing streak today and get the cover at home.

ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego -1 over Pacific, Thursday at 10:00 PM ET

We like the better team here coming off a loss.   San Diego traveled to St Marys last Saturday to take on a very good team that basically never loses at home.  SD was a 13.5 point dog but took St Marys to the wire losing by 7.  Despite being a double digit favorite, the Gaels largest lead in the game was 9 points and it was close throughout the 2nd half.  That loss dropped San Diego’s road record to 5-2 on the season.  The Toreros have a better road record than Pacific has a home record (5-4).  We also get Pacific coming off a huge home win topping BYU 67-66 on Saturday which gives us a potential letdown spot.  Despite the win, the Tigers are just 2-6 their last 8 wins with their two victories coming by 1 point and the other in OT.  They could easily be on an 0-8 run entering this game.  Of their 7 wins  (7-10 record), only one has come against a team ranked higher than 170 and that was BYU.  San Diego, on the other hand, has already beaten 3 teams on the ROAD that rank 113 or higher including a win @ Colorado and @ New Mexico State.  The Toreros have a GIANT edge on defense in this game as they rank 39th nationally in defensive efficiency, 3rd nationally in eFG% defense, and 1st in  the nation at defending the 3 point line allowing just 23% from deep.  Pacific ranks 246th or lower in all 3 of those categories.   Offensively the Tigers are a terrible 3 point shooting team making only 30% of their attempts (323rd nationally) so they will get very little if anything from deep facing the top rated team at defending the arc.  Pacific has very little home court advantage as they have won just 7 of their last 18 games here.  They are averaging 79 PPG at home this year and they give up 79 PPG.  On Thursday they face a San Diego team that has not only outscored their teams overall this year but they are also outscoring their opponents on the road.  San Diego has been waiting  for this one as well after losing both games to Pacific last year, each by just 3 points.  USD is 21-8-1 ATS their last 30 road games and the pick up another win and cover on Thursday night.

ASA PLAY ON: #583 NC Greensboro (+8) over East Tennessee State, 7PM ET - This is a great college rivalry that you've probably not noticed unless you live near each campus. Last year UNGC won both regular season meetings (83-79 on this court, 72-66 at home) but lost in the SoCon Championship game 74-70 to ETSU. That most recent loss is certainly a small part of the equation tonight in our wagering on NC Greensboro as they are playing with revenge. Just how tight has this series been recently? The last 7 meeting have all been decided by 7-points or less, with ETSU holding a slim 522-519 margin in points in the series since joining the league three seasons ago. Both teams are really good defensively as each holds foes to under 43% shooting with top 80 defensive efficiency ratings. East Tenn State has an advantage in terms of EFG% offense at 54.4% while UNCG sits at 51.1 EFG%. But Greensboro makes up for it by being a better rebounding team. UNCG has an average point differential of just -2PPG on the road this year and has a road win at NC State and played Virginia tough away from home too. This is a huge conference game for these ranked Mid-Major teams and the points are just too many to pass on. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech -1 over Notre Dame, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPNU!

This is a great spot to take Ga Tech at home.  It will be their third straight home tilt and they are playing well right now.  They had an easy time with Yale over the weekend and beat a very good Miami FL team by 10 points here a week ago.  They faced this Notre Dame team on the road 12 days ago and lost 68-59 despite holding a lead into the 2nd half.  The Jackets now get a chance at quick revenge less than 2 weeks later and the Irish team they face tonight won’t be the same as they one they played 12 days ago.  That’s because Notre Dame’s top 2 players won’t be playing in this game.  Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell are both injured and won’t make the trip.  Colson is out for 8 weeks due to a foot injury and Farrell, who missed last weekend’s game @ Syracuse, hopes his ankle is ready for this Saturday’s HUGE home game vs UNC.  Those two combined for 32 points and 22 rebounds in the win over GT less than 2 weeks ago.  UND rallied on Saturday beating Syracuse by 2 points with Farrell sitting out his first game due to injury.  Head coach Mike Brey stated after the game that it was one of the bigger wins of his career considering the injury circumstances.  We think this game has letdown written all over it.  First they face a team they just beat.  Second they are off that huge win and play North Carolina at home next.  And lastly, as happens often, the Irish stepped up in their first game in the absence of a key player and we think they come back down in their 2nd of back to back road games.  Tech has played Notre Dame very tough as they are 9-0-1 ATS their last 10 vs ND.  The host controlled this series winning 7 of the last 8 in this series.  With this line right around pick-em, we like Tech to win outright.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Towson -2 over College of Charleston, Sunday at 2:00 PM ET

These two met just 9 days ago and C of C came up with a 73-62 win.  The Cougars shot 51% in the game and had a big +13 made FT edge.  They also made 4 more three pointers and those factors were the difference in the 11 point final margin.  Charleston was favored by 4 in that game and now with Towson laying just 2 points less than 10 days later, we feel we’re getting very nice value with the Tigers.  This is a very big early season game for Towson as they sit at 1-2 in CAA play while Charleston is 2-1.  A loss here not only drops them two behind C of C but would give the Cougars the tiebreaker very early in the season.  That’s big as these are two of the favorites in the Colonial.  Towson is very good at home with a perfect 5-0 mark.  Going back to last season the Tigers have won 13 straight home games.  They hit over 50% of their shots here while allowing their opponents to shoot only 35%.  They are coming off an easy 18 point home win over UNC Wilmington on Friday and Towson was able to spread their minutes out with 9 players logging double digit minutes.  Charleston, on the other hand, is playing their 2nd road game in the span of 40 hours after losing in OT @ Drexel Friday night.  The Cougars had 4 starters log over 36 minutes in that loss.  Both of these teams have 11 wins on the season, but C of C has played a MUCH easier schedule as the SOS is ranked 323rd nationally (Towson’s SOS is 193rd).  11 of Charleston’s 15 games have been played vs teams ranked lower than 200.  We like the Tigers in this spot and with the line where it is, they basically have to simply win at home.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Jacksonville -9 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’ve been anti Buffalo for much of the year and feel they are absolutely not worthy of being a playoff team.  They were outgained in 13 of their 16 games this year which led to their -53 YPG yard differential on the year.  Last week they went to Miami and won a tight game 22-16 and they were outgained by a Dolphin offense that played David Fales at QB who hadn’t thrown a pass all season long and had only 2 career completions.  We were on the Fins in that game and are very confident that if Jay Cutler would have played the entire game (he played only 1 series) the Bills wouldn’t even be in the playoffs right now.  The Bills also have a -57 point differential on the season which is the worst by far of the 12 playoff teams.  In fact, there are 20 teams in the NFL that have a better point differential than Buffalo.  The only other team in the post-season with a negative point differential is Tennessee at -22.  By comparison, Jacksonville checks in with a point differential of +149 which is 2nd in the AFC behind New England only.  The Jags clinched the AFC South a few weeks ago and are coming off back to back losses in meaningless games.  We actually like the fact they’ve lost a few in a row entering this contest giving them a little extra motivation here.  Jacksonville’s defense is fantastic ranking 2nd in the NFL behind Minnesota allowing just 286 YPG.  That will be a problem here for a Buffalo team that is not very explosive (22nd in PPG scored & 29th in total offense) and might be without their top offensive weapon LeSean McCoy which would be a huge loss.  McCoy accounts for 33% of the Bills offense which is 2nd most in the NFL by any player (behind only Gurley of the Rams).  Also keep in mind that Buffalo put up those poor offensive numbers this season despite playing only 3 games all season vs defenses that ended the year in the top 10 in total defense.  The Jacksonville offense is surprisingly good this year ranking 5th in the NFL in scoring and they’ve put up at least 30 points in 4 of their last 5 games entering the playoffs.  They will be able to run with Leonard Fournette facing a Buffalo defense that ranks 29th in the NFL at stopping the run.  That takes some pressure off Jacksonville QB Bortles who is much better when he doesn’t have to carry the load offensively.  Buffalo, on the flip side, will have problems running the ball in this game without McCoy.  Even if he plays he is not close to 100%.  That leaves Buffalo’s running game with Mike Tolbert and Marcus Murphy who was recently brought up from the practice squad.  We know the Bills struggle to pass ranking 2nd to last in the NFL in that category and they’ll be facing the #1 pass defense in the NFL in this game.  If Buffalo’s ground game struggles, which it will, they are in big trouble here on offense.  Their defense isn’t good enough to shut down Jacksonville and we see the Jaguars winning this game by 10+ points. 

ASA PLAY ON: 808 Milwaukee Bucks (+1) over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET - Revenge angles only work in the NBA if the circumstances are right and it works tonight with the Bucks. Milwaukee just lost in Toronto on Monday 127-131 in OT in a very tight battle from start to finish. In this quick turnaround setting we like the Bucks to get a little payback here. Milwaukee has better overall offensive and defensive efficiency numbers their last five games compared to the Raptors and a better point differential. The Bucks are shooting over 50% their last five contests compared to the Raptors 44%. They are also allowing an average of 5-less points per game their last five too compared to Toronto. The Raps have a solid road record this season of 12-9 SU but they only have one quality win over the Rockets and nine of those W's came against teams with losing records. The Bucks are 13-6 SU at home this year, 4-1 SU their last five. The Bucks come to play tonight and get a big home win! 

ASA PLAY ON: #574 @Wofford (-15) over VMI, 7PM ET - VMI was projected to be the worst team in the SoCon before the season started and there's no reason to think they'll be anything different. VMI opened conference play against Furman (ranked 100th by KenPom) at home and lost by 30. Wofford is ranked lower than Furman but are better than their overall rankings in our opinion. VMI was +12 at home against Furman and are now +15 at Wofford which is not a big enough adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Keydets lost at VCU (again similar to Wofford) by 10 but were down 23 in the second half of that game. VMI is 5-7 SU this year but  their five wins have come against teams ranked 329th or worse in D1 hoops. They start 4 sophomores and 1 freshman. Wofford comes into this game 0-1 in conference play following a loss at UNC Greensboro. That 'L' is understandable though as they had upset North Carolina on the road in their previous game. Tonight they'll be focused for a conference home team against an opponent they've beat by 18 points twice last season. The Terriers have played a very tough schedule (18th) and yet have a top 100 offensive efficiency rating and a top 80 effective field goal percentage. On the flip  side, VMI has played one of the easiest schedules in the country and yet rank 272nd in overall defensive efficiency rating. This one sets up for a BLOWOUT!

ASA play on: #548 UW Green Bay (-2.5) over IUPUI, 8PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with his selection as we feel a road-weary IUPUI team will have a tough time rising to the challenge to face UW Green Bay tonight. This will be the Jaguars 10th road game out of the fourteen they've played. This is their 3rd straight road game in a 6-day span after losing at Northern Kentucky Dec 28th and Wright State Dec 30th. Those two teams are eerily similar to this same UW Green Bay team when it comes to rankings and statistics. On the other bench is a Phoenix team that is off two straight home wins over Detroit and Oakland who are also much like IUPUI. Neither team has played great this season as IUPUI has the 213th OEFF ratings compared to UWGB's 319th but the Phoenix have a much better defense at 210 versus the Jags 313th. The Jags 3-point FG defense is literally one of the WORST in college hoops at 342 and UW Green Bay has made 11 Triples in the past two games. IUPUI has been especially bad lately on the defensive end of the court as they've allowed their last five opponents to hit 56% of their FG attempts and only shot 37% themselves. Green Bay's defense has been much better of late holding foes to just 43.7% shooting compared to 45.3% they allow on the season. UWGB has a redshirt junior back in the lineup in Sandy Cohen who has averaged 17.5PPG, 9RPG in four games this season.  Green Bay had a positive home differential of +4.1PPG last year and have turned the corner enough to get a win here by a larger margin.

ASA play on: #504 New York Knicks (+5) over San Antonio Spurs, 7:35PM ET - The value in this line is obvious as the Knicks just played in San Antonio a few nights ago and were plus 10.5 points and now are home getting +5.5 points. That's not a normal swing in points and is clearly an over-adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Spurs home/road dichotomies are drastically different and they aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home. San Antonio's road point differential if -2.1PPG which is in the bottom half of the NBA. They have the second worst offensive efficiency ratings on the road but 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers. That disparity is a large reason why they are just 3-8 ATS on the road as a favorite this season.  The Knicks have been good at home this year with a 15-6 SU record and a home point differential of +6.3PPG which is 10th best in the NBA. New York has a top 10 OEFF ratings and a top 14 DEFF ratings in the Garden. Normally I'd be remiss to play against the Spurs off a loss but the facts are they have a 2-3 ATS record on the road in that role. The Knicks are 8-3-1 ATS as a home pooch this season. Grab the points!

#266 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Michigan -7.5 over South Carolina, Monday at 12:00 PM ET We feel this is a defense vs offense mismatch in favor of the Wolverines. The Gamecocks offense is not good. They rank 107th nationally in total offense averaging only 341 YPG. The two best defenses they played this year (Clemson & Georgia) both completely shut this team down. In those two games the Gamecocks scored just 10 points in each game and averaged only 237 total YPG in those two games. Now they face a Michigan defense that is every bit as good as those two stop units as they rank 3rd nationally in total defense allowing only 268 YPG. Only 3 teams all season long scored more than 20 points vs Michigan and those were the 3 best teams in the Big Ten (OSU, PSU, and Wisconsin). We expect South Carolina to struggle big time offensively here. The Michigan offense had their issues this year but when they had Peters at QB they were pretty good as they scored 30+ points in 3 of the 4 games he started. He’s back and ready to go which really gives a boost to Michigan’s offense. This gives Michigan an advantage on BOTH sides of the ball in this game. We’ve been anti South Carolina all season long as this is a team that seem to get a bit lucky in some of their wins with defensive and special teams scores. In fact, this team is 8-4 but they were outgained by nearly 40 YPG on the season. The Big Ten has been very successful in this bowl season as of this writing (Saturday afternoon) and we look for that to continue. Michigan is the play.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami +3 over Buffalo, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

These two played just 2 weeks ago and Buffalo was favored by 3.5 at home.  The Bills won that game 24-16 but the yardage was nearly even.  Now they are favored by nearly the same number on the road giving us very good value with Miami in this game.  Buffalo is one of those teams that “has to” win which is why the line is set where it is.  The fact is, the teams that have to win don’t always win.  Especially with a team that isn’t all that great to begin with.  Buffalo is a team that really shouldn’t be sitting the position they are.  The Bills sit with an 8-7 record, however they’ve been outgained by 53 YPG on the season and they have a -63 point differential.  They have outgained only 3 of their 15 opponents this season!  The only time they’ve been favored on the road this year was @ NY Jets and they lost that game by 13 points.  That makes Buffalo 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they’ve been favored on the road dating back to 2014.  They are also just 8-15 SU their last 23 trips to Miami.  The Fins have played well at home down the stretch beating both New England and Denver as home underdogs in their last 2 here.  We look for Miami to play hard at home and close out the season with an outright win.  Take the points. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Texas Arlington -5 over Appalachian State, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET

UTA is the highest rated team in the Sun Belt and the favorite to win the conference.  They won it last year with a 14-4 record (27-9 overall) and they bring many of their key players back from that team including NBA prospect Kevin Hervey (22 PPG & 9 RPG).  We get the Mavs in a great spot here coming off by far their worst performance of the season in a 90-65 loss @ Coastal Carolina, a game that UTA was the favorite.  That dropped them to 0-1 in the Sun Belt and we look for them to atone for that embarrassment in this one.  They are facing an App State team that is rated as the 8th best team in the Sun Belt, yet they stand at 1-0 in the league after topping Texas State 66-62 on Friday.  The Mountaineers are just 6-8 on the season despite playing a fairly easy slate facing just 3 top 100 teams this year (0-3 in those games) and UTA will be their 3rd.   App State is a bad defensive team that has allowed half of their opponents this year (7) to reach at least 80 points.  They allow over 47% from the field overall and are terrible defending the 3 point line (304th nationally).  That will be a problem against a very motivated Arlington team that has a number of players that shoot the ball very well.  The Mav offense averages 78 PPG and they should have a field day vs this Mountaineer defense.  These two met twice last year and UTA won both by margins of 15 & 16 points.  We see a similar result here and we’ll take Texas Arlington to roll.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Manhattan -3 over Fairfield, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET

Manhattan comes in with just a 5-7 record, however they have played all but 3 games away from home.  The Jaspers have played just one home game since November 18th and they are perfect 3-0 here at Draddy Gymnasium.  They are just happy to finally have a home game where they are 52-26 in their 7 years under head coach Steve Masiello.  They’ve also had a week off to get ready for this game after playing a solid game @ Seton Hall, one of the top teams in the Big East. Losing 74-62 last Saturday.  Fairfield comes in with a 6-6 mark and they played on Thursday night and are now back on the court just 48 hours later.  The Stags have played 3 straight home games and haven’t played a true road game since December 6th.  They are 0-4 in true road games this season losing by an average of 13 points per game.  Fairfield is not a great shooting team and they are facing a hungry Manhattan team that is very solid defensively ranking in the top 3 in the MAAC in 6 different defensive categories.  This is a game the Jaspers have been waiting for after getting swept by Fairfield last season.  Despite Fairfield winning here last year, the host has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 10 meetings.  Manhattan covers this small number at home on Saturday night.

ASA PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro -5.5 over Wofford, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET

Most will remember their most recent game when Wofford pulled the monumental upset @ North Carolina.  That was 10 days ago and now the Terriers travel to a very good UNC Greensboro team.  If you look at the entire body of work, Wofford had won just 1 of their 4 true road games heading into their game in Chapel Hill.  All 3 of their road losses have come by double digits.  Their game @ UNC they were the beneficiary of a terrible shooting night by the Heels who hit only 36% from the field and just 28% from beyond the arc.  It’s not as if the Terriers have a shut down defensive team as the rank 317th in eFG% defense.  It was just a night where the shots weren’t falling for UNC.  We anticipate Greensboro taking advantage of that poor defense on Saturday.  The Spartans are a very solid 3 point shooting team and 43% of their points come from deep which is 8th nationally.  They are facing a Wofford 3 point defense that ranks 340th in the country allowing opponents to hit over 42% of their shots from deep.  On the flip side, Wofford also relies heavily on the 3 point shot with 40% of their points coming from beyond the arc.  However, UNCG’s defense as a whole is very good and they are fantastic at defending the arc allowing just 28% (11th nationally).  This UNCG team won the Southern Conference last year with a 25-10 overall record and they’ve won 24 of their last 29 home games.  Wofford caught lightning in a bottle @ UNC 10 days ago but this is a team that has had losing records each of the last 2 seasons.  The home team has won 7 straight in this series and we think we get another one here.  UNCG is undervalued here while Wofford is overvalued of their win over the Heels.  Lay it.

ASA 10* PLAY ON IOWA STATE +4.5 over Memphis, Liberty Bowl, Saturday Dec 30th @ 12:30 PM ET – This was one game we immediately circled when the lines came out and feel the better team is getting points here. Memphis is basically playing a home game here but is that a huge benefit for a Bowl team? Isn't it more fun, exciting and less distracting for the players to travel to someplace new as a reward for qualifying for a Bowl? In this situation we don't feel the home field will hold the advantages it normally does for Memphis. A big factor in handicapping Bowl games is knowing if a team is properly motivated to be there and one thing we know for sure, Iowa State will be ready here. The Cyclones have a hot-shot young coach in Matt Campbell who is going to be on the short list for some big programs in the future. Campbell is a fantastic motivator and tactician and the team loves playing for him. This will be the Cyclones first Bowl game since 2012 so we know they'll be excited to be here. Campbell mentioned earlier this week many key players were was banged up at the end of the season but they now look like they did in early September health wise. That’s bad news for Memphis. The Tigers also has a great young coach in Mike Norvell who guided them to the Boca Raton Bowl last year, a loss to Western Kentucky. Memphis has a fast paced, high octane offense that averaged 47 PPG but their offensive numbers are very misleading. The Tigers faced some of the worst defensive teams in college football as 7 of their opponents ranked 82nd or worse in defensive efficiency ratings, 5 of which were 103rd or worse. In fact, the combined DEFF ratings of all the teams they faced was 81st so they should have great offensive numbers. The defense Memphis will face here has been battle tested and is easily the best they’ve faced this season. The Cyclones finished 2nd in the Big 12 in scoring defense (behind only TCU) and they won’t be fazed by the Tigers offense in this one as they have already faced more potent offenses that this one including Oklahoma (1st in the nation in total offense) and Oklahoma State (2nd in the nation in total offense). Despite facing one of the toughest offensive schedules in the nation, the ISU defense still ranks 31st nationally in DEFF. ISU faced 6 teams that rank in the top 50 in the nation in total offense (4 in the top 20) and won't be 'over their heads' against Memphis. The Cyclones played 7 teams in the top 45 according to Sagarin’s ratings while Memphis played just one, Central Florida, who beat the Tigers twice. ISU has played the 24th toughest schedule while Memphis has played the 86th. Memphis makes a living by turning teams over and that won't happen here as Iowa State has not lost a fumble all season long and they've only thrown 2 INT's in their previous four games. The Clones are no slouch on offense as they averaged 30 PPG this season against the MUCH tougher schedule. They should have a field day here facing a Memphis defense that rates 120th nationally, the worst defense ISU has faced all season long. Not only that, we consider the Tiger defense worse than the actual stats tell due to the fact they played such an easy schedule this season. Memphis is 7-0 SU at home this year but those wins have come against teams with a 29-39 SU record. It's obvious the oddsmakers continue to undervalue Iowa State as they are on a 6-0 ATS run as a dog and 10-1-1 ATS overall this season. They also have some added motivation here as ISU is the Power 5 team in this game yet they are the underdogs. They will be out to prove a point here and let’s not forget this is a very talented team that beat both Oklahoma (on the road) and TCU, the two teams who met in the Big 12 Championship game. We like the Cyclones to win outright!

ASA PLAY ON 10* UC Irvine +5 over New Mexico State, Thursday at 10 PM ET

UC Irvine is just 5-10 on the season but don’t be deceived by their record.  This is a solid team that is projected by many to win the Big West Conference just as they did last year.  The problem is, they’ve played a brutal schedule thus far (11th toughest strength of schedule in the nation).  The Anteaters have played on 3 home games this season with their most recent coming back on December 2nd.  They finished a 5 game road trip last Friday so they’ve had 6 full days to rest up and get ready to finally play a home game where they have won 27 of their last 32 games.  Their opponent tonight is New Mexico State who is a very solid team.  The Aggies will win a lot of games this year but this is a terrible spot for them.  They just played 3 games in 4 days in Hawaii with their most recent coming on Christmas Day.  NMSU took the red eye late Monday and their only “normal” practice day this week was yesterday here in Irvine.  This is simply a bad spot for the Aggies and they are playing a motivated, rested team.  UC Irvine is a proud program that has won 20+ games each of the last 5 seasons and we feel they have a great shot at an outright home win in this game.  Even if not, we’re getting points on top of it.  Take UC Irvine. 

#246 ASA 10* PLAY ON TCU -3 over Stanford, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET – ALAMO BOWL - TCU gets to play in the state of Texas here so they will have the overwhelming crowd advantage in San Antonio. We love looking for teams with a big defensive edge in the bowl games and that’s what we get here. TCU was the 4th best rush defense in the nation holding teams to just 99 YPG on 2.9 YPC. They ranked 18th in total defense nationally and allowed opposing QB to complete just 52% of their passes this year. They held opposing offenses to 122 yards per game below their season averages. Those are fantastic season long numbers and we view them as even better than they might read as they put up those stats in the offensively stout Big 12 which has 4 of the top 19 offenses in the country. This makes a poor match up for Stanford who has a young QB KJ Costello who has played in only 10 games thus far in his college career. While he has been improving and looks to have a bright future, we highly doubt he can carry the load vs this top notch defense. He might have to as Stanford relies on their running game to free him up to pass and that might not happen here facing TCU’s run defense. The only two defenses the Cardinal faced in the Pac 12 that were semi comparable to TCU were Washington & Washington State who are both top 20 defenses. In those two games Stanford averaged only 300 YPG on offense. The Cardinal defense is normally the staple of their team but they are way down this season. They rank 70th or lower in total defense, rush defense, and passing defense. We expect TCU’s offense, with speed and weapons galore, to do very well in this game. The Frogs put up at least 30 points in half their games this season. We also like the fact that TCU was embarrassed by Oklahoma 41-17 in the Big 12 Championship game so they feel as though they have something to prove on both sides of the ball here. Lay this small number with the superior team in a home type venue.

ASA PLAY ON: #506 Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5) over Minnesota Timberwolves, 8PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Bucks here as the Wolves coming into this game off an OT win last night against Denver making this the second night of a back to back, not to mention the 3rd in four nights. Milwaukee comes into this game having lost two straight games, the most recent a home loss to the Bulls. Last night the Timberwolves starters all played 30+ minutes and three of the five (Butler, Wiggins and Gibson) all played 40 plus. That makes tonight's game so tough for them as their depth has been a concern all season long. Minnesota's bench averages just 13 minutes per game which is last in the NBA and their offensive/defensive efficiency stats are in the bottom four of the NBA in both categories. Milwaukee has lost two home games to the Bulls in the past two weeks but have won 6 other home games which included a 'W' over the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Bucks have covered 6 of the last seven meetings and will get a solid home win tonight over a tired Wolves team. Lay it. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Wyoming +3 over San Diego State, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

This one sets up very nicely for the home dog.  Wyoming is off a home game where they were favored by 9.5 points vs Northern Colorado and lost.  That game was 8 days ago so the Cowboys and their coaches have had some time to stew over that loss, correct mistakes, and put together a great week of practice leading into this conference opener.  It was Wyoming’s first home loss of the season (now 6-1 here) and they’ve had a very strong home court over the years rolling up a 26-4 record their last 30 home games.  We look for San Diego State to come into this one fat and happy so to speak after their biggest win of the season, a 72-70 home win over Gonzaga.  The Aztecs were in a similar situation in that game as they came off a home loss to Cal before bouncing back and pulling the upset over the Zags.  San Diego State is 1-1 in true road games this year and they haven’t played a road game this entire month.  The Aztecs are under the leadership of new head coach Brian Dutcher as long time coach Steve Fisher has retired.  This team was a bit down last year with a 19-14 record which is not great for SDSU standards and they look similar this year with 3 losses on the season, including 2 vs teams ranked lower than 165th nationally.  Wyoming is one of the more veteran teams in the MWC with 4 upperclassmen starters who were key members in last year’s 23-15 team.  This team will play with a purpose tonight and they have another full week off before their next game.  They are a solid defensive team (top 100 in defensive efficiency) and they shoot it well at home (46%).  We look for them to pick up the outright win at home. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle +5 over Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

The betting markets are on the Cowboys here after a blowout loss by the Seahawks last week, and the return of RB Elliott for Dallas. But in reality it's the exact opposite here as the value is on the Hawks plus the points. The Seahawks lost by 35 points last week. NFL teams that were embarrassed the previous week and coming off losses of five TDs or more have some incredible technical support. Since 2003 those teams (off a 5 TD loss) are 55-31 ATS (64%), 44-23 ATS as a dog in that situation and 38-15 ATS as a pooch of 3-points or more.  Seattle already has 4 quality road wins this season and will have a QB/coaching advantage in this do-or-die game for both teams. Yes, Zeke is back but Seattle still has a respectable rush defense and the Cowboys will be without their starting left tackle. Dallas has already 4 home losses this year, and even though Seattle has some injury issues, they still have some key efficiency advantages over the Boys. The Dog has covered 4 straight in this series and Seattle is on a 10-3 ATS run when coming off a loss. Grab the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -5.5 over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE YEAR

Quick revenge here for the Saints after losing @ Atlanta 20-17 on December 7th, a game New Orleans led 17-10 in the 4th quarter.  It was just the 2nd time in the last 10 games where the Saints have been outgained in a game and that was by only 37 yards.  The New Orleans offense took a huge hit early in that game when star RB Kamara left the game with a concussion.  He was back on the field last week in the Saints 31-19 win over the Jets so he’s ready to go here.  We know New Orleans has a great offense leading the NFL at 401 YPG and 6.4 YPP, however the defense has been carrying this team holding opponents to 21 points or less in 7 of their last 9 games.  This defense held Atlanta to 20 points on just 5 YPP in their meeting a few weeks ago and now the Falcons top offensive weapon, WR Julio Jones, hasn’t practiced this week due to an injury.  He may play but won’t be at 100%.  In their most recent “step up” division game at home a few weeks ago the Saints dominated the Panthers winning 31-21 and outgained Carolina by 120 yards.  We see a similar scenario unfolding here.  9 of the Saints 10 wins this season have been by 8 points or more.  On the flip side, Atlanta has 9 wins with 6 of those wins coming by 6 points or fewer (one possession type games).  We rate New Orleans better on both sides of the ball and they have a great home field advantage going 6-1 here this year with their only loss being their home opener vs the Patriots.  Lay it win the Saints.

ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -6.5 over Army, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET

The key to Army’s offensive success is not only running the option proficiently, but also making opposing defenses prepare for an offense they are not used to seeing on short notice.  Two things are working against the Cadets here, one is the fact that SDSU has had a month off to prepare for the option and the other is Aztec head coach Rocky Long is as good as any defensive mind when it comes to slowing down the option.  Long has won 11 of the last 12 times his teams have faced an option based offense and this will be the 3rd option team they have faced this year alone - they were 2-0 in those games.  In those games the San Diego State defense held Air Force to 220 yards on 60 carries (just 3.7 YPC) which was 90 yards and a full 1.1 YPC below their season average.  They also stopped the other option attack they faced this season, New Mexico, with just 82 yards rushing on 34 carries (2.4 YPC) which was 153 yards and a whopping 3.0 YPC below the Lobos season averages.  It wasn’t a fluke as the Aztec defense ranks 8th nationally this season at stopping the run which is a terrible match up for Army as they run the ball 91% of the time which is more than anyone in the country.  If the Cadets can’t dominate the ground game they are in big trouble offensively as they average only 30 YPG passing which is dead last in college football, a full 50 yards behind the next worst passing offense.  On the other side of the ball, San Diego State is very good at running the ball (253 YPG) and they have one of the top RB’s in the nation in Rashaad Penny who has put up over 2,000 yards on the ground on 7.4 YPC.  They should move the ball very efficiently on the ground facing an Army defense that simply isn’t very good allowing 5.0 YPC.  While we fully expect SDSU to move the ball on the ground, they also have a solid QB Christian Chapman who ranks 33rd nationally in passing efficiency and has thrown 31 TD’s and just 9 interceptions in his two years as the Aztec starter.  SDSU is 9-2 on the year with their only losses coming at the hands of Fresno St & Boise St, both bowl teams.  They’ve knocked off 2 very good Pac 12 teams this year beating Stanford and Arizona State.  Army had three losses on the season to Ohio State, Tulane, and North Texas and 5 of their 9 wins came by 5 points or less.  These two teams have a very comparable strength of schedule, yet San Diego State had MUCH better overall seasonal numbers.  The Aztecs averaged 6.2 yards per play while allowing just 5.1 for a differential of +1.1 YPP.  Army averaged 6.1 YPP but allowed 6.2 YPP for a negative YPP differential.  While State has had a month off, Army upset Navy just two weeks ago which was huge for them.  That upset was definitely bigger than actually winning a bowl game for this team so this one could be a letdown for the Cadets.  San Diego State is the better team in the better spot and we like them to win by double digits.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: #534 Boston College -10 over Richmond, 1PM ET - Huge disparity here between these two teams in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency ratings as BC checks in with the 82nd OEFF and 109 DEFF, while Richmond is 251st in OEFF and 224 DEFF. The Spiders don't shoot it well (250th in EFG%) and don't defend it will with the 335th EFG% defense.  Richmond is one of the country's worst offensive rebounding teams while BC is one of the best. Boston College is 8-0 SU versus non-major conference opponents this year and is the only team in the nation to beat Duke this year. The Eagles have a point differential of +11PPG and are playing with revenge from a loss to the Spiders last year. Richmond's 4 best players are either freshman or sophomores and won't be up for the task here. BC is winning their home games by an average of 17PPG while Richmond is losing on the road by an average of 24PPG. This sets up to be a BLOWOUT! 

PLAY ON: Atlanta Hawks +11.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET - Yeah, I know it's hard to bet 'ugly' teams like the Hawks but the value here is clearly on their side. OKC is being asked by the oddsmakers to cover a hefty number here, especially considering they haven't been a double-digit chalk since mid-November. The Thunder also have two much bigger games on deck at Utah and then a Christmas Day showdown with the Rockets, so they may get caught looking past the lowly Hawks. OKC has the 7th best home point differential in the NBA at +7.3PPG but that's not enough to get a cover here. Atlanta is just 2-11 SU their last 13 road games but NONE of those losses have been by more than tonight's point spread. In fact, only 2 of the Hawks road losses have come by 12 or more points all season long. On the season the Hawks road differential is -5.8PPG, less than tonight's number. In their last five games these teams are nearly identical in terms of offensive efficiency ratings so Atlanta can score with the Thunder. Grab the points with Atlanta!

PLAY ON: TEXAS A&M over Buffalo - When it comes to scheduling there really couldn't be a better situation than this game tonight. Buffalo is coming off a HUGE game at Syracuse on Tuesday in which they competed the entire game and lost by 7. The Bulls clearly had to prepare for the Cuse 2-3 zone which took away time from their regular offense. Now they travel to Texas to face an Aggies team off a close, wake up home win over a good Northern Kentucky team on Tuesday. The Aggies were short several key players in that game and will for sure have backup PG TJ Starks back tonight while forwards Willaims and Jasey are probable.  Reed Arena has proven to be one of the hardest places for opponents to get a win as Texas A&M has never lost a non-conference game inside Reed Arena while playing as a ranked team 46-0 SU. The Aggies are one of the nation's elite defensive teams ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency.  A&M ranks 3rd nationally in field goal percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 36.0 percent from the field.  On the offensive end, Texas A&M has also been solid as well, checking in at 41st in offensive efficiency. A&M leads the nation in defensive rebounds per game and is 3rd nationally in total rebounds per game, 9th in rebound margin. Buffalo is a very good mid-major team and one we'll look to play on in the future but this is just not a good spot for them. The Bulls were just +10.5 points at Syracuse who isn't nearly as good as this Aggies team and in our opinion is over-rated. After a close home game expect a very focused effort tonight in a blowout win!

ASA PLAY ON 10* UT Arlington -13 over Cal Poly, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET

We were on UTA on Tuesday at Creighton and picked up a win.  This team continues to fly under the radar but they are very good.  The Mavericks should be extra motivated here coming off a loss (but cover) on Tuesday @ Creighton.  This will be just their 2nd home game since December 2nd and the Mavs have 9 days off after this game so nothing to look ahead to beyond this contest.  This is a solid shooting team with 4 players averaging more than 11 PPG led by NBA prospect Kevin Hervey who puts up 24 PPG and 9 RPG.  They also have the nation’s leading assist man in point guard Erick Neal.  They should tear apart a Cal Poly defense that ranks 277th nationally in defensive efficiency and 344th in the country defending the arc allowing opponents to shoot 44% from 3.  Cal Poly comes in having lost 6 of their last 7 games.  They have been whipped by 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games including on Saturday when they lost @ SMU by 20, a game they trailed by 29 points late in the 2nd half.  The Mustangs are a poor shooting team (257th in eFG%) that has topped 66 points only once in their last 7 games.  They will have trouble keeping up here vs a UTA team that has scored at least 80 points in half of their games this season.  Cal Poly has won just one of their 6 games away from home this year (road/neutral) and going back a few years they’ve won just 11 of their last 50 games away from home.  UT Arlington is the MUCH better team and will come in motivated off a loss.  Blowout here.    

ASA PLAY  ON: #714 CHICAGO BULLS (-5) over Orlando Magic, 8PM ET - We could make a case that nobody in the NBA is playing better than the Bulls right now and there aren't many teams playing worse than the Magic. Chicago has ripped off 6 straight wins which included victories over the 26-7 Celtics, 76ers and East contenders Milwaukee Bucks.  Chicago's average point differential in their last five games is +7.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. During that same 5-game stretch the Bulls have the 6th best defensive efficiency rating and the 11th best OEFF. Both of those numbers are DRASTICALLY better than their season averages which is what the point spread is based on. Conversely, the Orlando Magic are really struggling after a pretty good start. Orlando has lost 5 straight games and in those contests their average point differential was -8.6PPG which is 29th worst in the NBA. The Magic are just 1-10 SU their last eleven road games and their road point differential of -3.4PPG on the season is in the bottom half of the league. It looks like Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon will be out for the Magic tonight which is just too much to overcome against the red hot Bulls. Lay the points. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* North Texas +8.5 over Georgetown, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

The Hoyas schedule thus far has been a joke ranking 350th most difficult out of 351 teams.  They won their first 8 games but didn’t play a team ranked higher than 231st and 7 of their first 8 games were against teams ranked 298th or lower.  They finally played a team with a pulse last Saturday and lost in OT at home to Syracuse.  They are drastically over valued right now as they have had lines posted on only 6 of their games this year and covered just once.  The lone game they covered the Hoyas were favored by 3 and won by 6.  We expect Georgetown to have a tough time bouncing back here off their OT home loss to the Orange, especially facing a no name type opponent.  However, North Texas should not be taken lightly.  They are 7-5 on the season and the Mean Green have played a MUCH tougher schedule than Georgetown.  In fact, if you throw out the Hoya’s game vs Syracuse, UNT has played 6 opponents ranked higher than Georgetown’s toughest foe.  The Green are a grizzled road team having already played Nebraska, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, and UT Arlington on the road.  Their most recent two road games they gave a very good Oklahoma team all they could handle losing by 10.  A few days later they played a very solid UT Arlington team on the road and lost by 5.  UNT has some momentum coming into this one having won 3 straight games including a win @ San Diego over the weekend.  They are tough to guard with 4 starters averaging more than 10 PPG and this is one of UNT’s circled games for the season.  G’Town has been a terrible investment at home covering just 10 of their last 35 games here and we like the Mean Green to give them a run tonight.  This one is close and decided very late.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* St Mary's -8.5 over Dayton, Tuesday at 10 PM ET

Tough spot for Dayton here coming off an OT win at home over Georgia State on Saturday and now making their furthest trip of the year and playing just a few days later.  The Flyers had 2 players log over 43 minutes in their game on Saturday and all 5 starters played more than 30 minutes.  Dayton hasn’t played a road game since December 3rd and this is just their 2nd true roadie of the season (lost at Mississippi State).  The Flyers are working this year under a new head coach Anthony Grant as their head man last year, Archie Miller, moved on to Indiana.  The results have been mixed for this team as they are trying to learn a new system.  They are 5-5 on the season with their best win coming over Ball State (ranked 118th) by a single point.  They were very solid under Miller last year but lost 4 starters from that team and their 5th starter from a year ago now comes off the bench.  St Mary’s is 9-2 on the year and their 2 losses have come by a combined 7 points and both were on a neutral court.  Unlike Dayton, this St Mary’s team returned nearly every key player from last year’s 29-5 team that made it to the 2nd round of the NCAA before losing by 9 to Arizona.  Four starters are back + a few key reserves and a big transfer Neal from New Mexico.  They are a fantastic shooting team ranking 15th nationally in eFG% and they sit in the top 35 in 3-point FG%, 2-point FG%, and FT%.  They are coming off a rare poor shooting game vs UC Irvine as they hit only 41% of their shots including 31% from 3.  Even with that they won by 7.  This is the Gaels 4th straight home game and their home record has been astoundingly good having won 40 of their last 43 games here at McKeon Pavilion.  These two met last year in Dayton and St Mary’s won the game 57-55.  The Gaels led by 14 in that game with just over 3:00 minutes remaining, didn’t score a basket in the final 6:00 minutes and still won, on the road, vs a Dayton team that is far better than this year’s version.  We like St Mary’s to roll at home tonight.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -9 over Wright State, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET

We like this situation with the better team (Missouri State) is at home and coming off a loss as a favorite.  The Bears most recent game was @ Oral Roberts and they played their worst game of the season losing outright as a 12 point favorite.  Now they’ve had 9 days off and they should have some extra motivation coming off that loss.  Mizzou State was on an 8 game winning streak heading into that game.  On the flip side, we have a road opponent in Wright State who is coming off an upset win on Saturday beating Toledo as a 5-point dog.  That game was won at the FT line where Wright State made 22 FT’s to just 7 for the Rockets.  Toledo is a decent team but not on the same level as the Raiders opponent tonight.  Missouri State is a very good defensive team (36th nationally in eFG% defense) and we look for a poor shooting Wright State team (277th in eFG% offense) to struggle scoring in this one.  The Bears have held half of their opponents (6) to 60 points or less and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if they do the same here.  This is just the third top 100 team that Wright State has faced this year (0-2 in the first two games) and the Raiders are 1-3 on the road this season.  This will also be the highest ranked opponent Wright State (7-4 record) has faced this season with Mizzou State ranked 78th.  These two have one common opponent and that is Western Kentucky (ranked 85th nationally).  They both played the Hilltoppers on the road and Missouri State won by 5 while Wright lost by 18.  The Bears are rested while Wright is playing their 2nd road game in 4 days and they have a trip to Georgia Tech on Friday.  We like Missouri State to roll up a big win in this game.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Arlington +14.5 over Creighton, Monday at 9:00 PM ET on Fox Sports One

UTA is an under the radar team that is experienced and very good.  They bring back most of their key players from last year’s team that went 27-9.  The Mavs start 5 seniors including NBA prospect Kevin Hervey who is 6’8 and averaging 24 PPG and 9 rebounds per game.  They also have a fantastic point guard in Erick Neal who leads the nation in assists.  Neal sat out their most recent game due to a personal situation but is expected to start tonight.  They have plenty of size to compete with high major teams as they go 7’0 (Va Tech transfer), 6’8 (Hervey), 6’7 in their starting lineup and their first big off the bench is 6’9.  The Mavericks have an 8-3 record and have been very competitive on the road as you’d expect them to be with a successful, veteran team.  They’ve played 3 true road games this year winning @ BYU, losing by 1-point @ Alabama, and losing by 4 @ Northern Iowa which was a 1-point game with under 1:00 minute remaining.   They were 12-7 on the road last year including wins @ Texas and @ St Mary’s.  Creighton is 8-2 on the year yet just 3-2 vs top 100 teams.  The Blue Jays wins over top 100 teams have come by margins of 4, 10, and 11 points.  The one very comparable opponent as far as ratings go was vs Nebraska who is rated 85th and Arlington is 79th.  In their game vs Nebraska the Blue Jays won by 10 but it was much closer than that.  The Huskers led by 8 in the 2nd half and it was a tight game down the stretch and the final margin of 10 was Creighton’s largest of the game.  These two match up fairly evenly when it comes to efficiency stats and we feel there is no reason UTA should be getting this many points.  Arlington has covered 8 in a row as a dog (3-0 ATS this year) dating back to last season and this one should be close throughout.   

ASA PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers (-1) over Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We faded this overrated Tennessee team last week and cashed in and we’ll do it again here.  The Titans are the most overrated team in the league.  They are 8-5 on the year but have been outgained and outscored on the season.  Last week @ Arizona they lost 12-7 and the offense stunk again.  The Titans put up barely 200 yards of total offense and QB Mariota was bad again throwing 2 interceptions.  The Titans are 3-4 on the road this year and Mariota has thrown just 3 TD’s to go along with 11 picks away from home on the season.  This is also their 4th road game in 5 weeks and they have already lost @ Miami and @ Arizona and squeaked by @ Indy and in OT @ Cleveland.  This Niner franchise now has some life with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB.  They have won back to back road games @ Chicago and @ Houston and they outgained those two teams by a combined 350 yards.  Garoppolo has thrown for over 600 yards in those two games.  Now they are back at home and confident.  The SF defense has been solid vs the rush this year allowing 3.9 YPC which is 7th in the NFL and if you can slow down Tennessee’s rushing attack you have them right where you want them.  That forces Mariota to carry the load and he hasn’t been able to do that this season.  Things that make you go hmmm…There is a reason the 3-10 team is a favorite over the 8-5 team.  The Niners are the better team right now and we’ll take them at home.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -2 over Oregon, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - One CBS Sports Network

This will be the first time this year that the Ducks have had to leave the state of Oregon.  They have played 11 games thus far with 8 being on their home court and 3 coming down the road in Portland.  Even with the favorable schedule the Ducks still have 3 losses on the season.  One of those setbacks came on their home court to Boise State, a team from the same conference as Fresno (Mountain West), and a team we rate almost equal to the Bulldogs.  Oregon is a far cry from the team  that made the Final 4 last year and 6 of their top 7 players have moved on.  Their only top 7 returner is guard Peyton Pritchard and he is paired with 4 new starters, 3 of whom are transfers.  They are still try to mesh as a team.  They are 0-3 vs top 100 teams and their highest rated win came in OT vs DePaul.  And remember, they haven’t played a road game yet are still struggling.  This is a huge home game for a very solid Fresno team.  They’ve been looking forward to this one as they rarely get to host a “Power 5” type team, to use a football reference.  Their last was back in 2015 when California came to town.  The Bulldogs are 9-2 on the season and one of the more experienced teams in the country with 5 upperclassmen in their top 6 and they shoot the ball very well with a 57% eFG rate (22nd in the nation).  They are tough to guard as they have 5 players averaging at least 10 PPG.  They could be without one of those players (Hopkins) who has a back injury but they are deep & experienced enough to get by without him here.  This Fresno team has won 27 of their last 29 home games and covered 19 of their last 26 at home.  Oregon was one of the best teams in the nation and topped Fresno at home last year.  The Bulldogs now return the favor vs an Oregon team that is still finding their way and working on their team chemistry with a slew of new faces.  If they’ve been inconsistent at home, we can’t imagine they’ll be efficient in their first road game.  Take Fresno.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon Ducks (-) over Boise State Broncos, Saturday at 3:30 ET: Game #205

Ducks RB Royce Freeman is not expected to play here but Oregon has a pair of running backs, senior Kani Benoit and junior Tony Brooks-James, that combined for over 1,000 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns this season. The big key here is having healthy QB Justin Herbert back in action. Oregon was only 1-4 (and averaged only 15 points) in the games he missed this season (broken collarbone). However, in the games in which Herbert started (including the last 2 of the season), the Ducks went 6-1 while averaging 51.2 points per game! In Boise State's last two games away from home the Broncos allowed an average of 320.5 passing yards per game. Herbert, other than the Cal game in which he got hurt, averaged 277.3 passing yards per game. Herbert finished the season with a ratio of 13 TDs against only 4 INTs. The sophomore now has 32 TDs against only 7 INTs in his two years. The Ducks players (after Willie Taggart left for Florida State) lobbied for co-offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal to get the job. Shortly after being named interim head coach, Cristobal ended up getting the interim tag lifted and signing a 5-year contract. He has the support of the Ducks players and this team is fired up to have a strong effort to head into a new era at Oregon on the right foot! On the season, the Ducks faced a tougher schedule overall than the Broncos did. With that said, though it may seem surprising to see 10-3 Boise State as a sizable dog here against a 7-5 Oregon team, it is certainly no mistake! The fact is that the Broncos are on a 3-10 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record and that includes 2-4 ATS this season! That pales in comparison to Oregon's mark of 6-1 SU (and 5-2 ATS) as a favorite this season. Also, when playing with at least 2 weeks of rest between games, the Ducks have a long-term record of 27-13 ATS! The Broncos only managed an average of 102 rushing yards per game their last 3 games with only 3.1 yards per carry. With Boise State unable to establish the run here, they will be forced to pass and the Ducks defense has shown tremendous improvement this season. Oregon has allowed only 158.7 passing yards per game their last 3 games and, with a healthy Herbert under center, the Ducks are peaking at the right time! Lay the points here with Oregon Saturday afternoon.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +6 over Wisconsin, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET on Fox Sports One

We follow Wisconsin very closely as we are right down the road from the Kohl Center (3 miles away) and have had season tickets since that building opened.  The Badgers were young and inexperienced coming into the season and we felt that some growing pains were in order early in the year.  They’ve played a very tough schedule and hung close in a number of losses.  We felt at full strength they would continue to improve and be a solid team by mid-season.   However, they are no longer at full strength.  Starting PG Trice is out with a broken foot and word is it’s possibly for the entire season.  Back-up guard Kobe King injured his knee in practice last Friday and is out for the season.  Wisconsin now has 2 scholarship guards on the entire roster.  Freshman Brad Davison is solid but played 39 minutes in their loss here to Marquette on Saturday and he is injured as well with a bad shoulder.  The Badgers will be forced to play 2 walk-ons in the back court for significant minutes moving forward.  On top of that, it’s finals week at UW which is always a distraction.  WKY is a very tough opponent for this Badger team.  They are athletic and can shoot the 3 very well ranking 10th nationally at 42.4% from beyond the arc.  The Badgers have struggled all year to guard the 3 point line ranking 199th in that category.  Marquette lit them up for 14 three pointers on Saturday and many were wide open looks.  The Hilltoppers are also a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting line-up.  This is a huge game for them facing a name opponent with a chance to pull the road upset.  It’s not as if this WKY team hasn’t already shown they can hang with the best teams in the nation as they’ve already beaten Purdue (one of the top two teams in the Big Ten) and SMU while playing #1 Villanova very tight losing by just 8.  We get Wisconsin has had a very strong home court advantage over the years but this isn’t team isn’t at the same level as past editions.  They’ve already been blown out, not just lost but blown out, at home twice this season.  We give the Hilltoppers a decent shot to pull the upset and if they do lose it should be close.  We’re on Western Kentucky here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Arizona +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Titans just might be the most overrated team in the NFL.  They are 8-4 yet have been outscored AND outgained on the season.  Last week at home they got down 10-0 to a struggling Houston team and though they fought back to take the lead, the Texans were driving late for the winning score and threw a pick.  Tennessee, with under 1:00 minute left and running out the clock, picked up a late covering 75 yard TD run to win 24-13.  A very deceiving final score.  The Titans have been outscored by 65 points in their last 5 road games with their only wins coming @ Cleveland 12-9 in OT and @ Indy 20-16.  QB Marcus Mariota has struggled all season but especially on the road where he has thrown only 3 TD passes to go along with 9 interceptions.  Because of Mariota’s struggles the Titans really need their running game to thrive in order for their offense to have a chance.  That will be tough here as the Cards rank 9th overall in rush defense allowing 99 YPG and 6th in YPC defense (3.7).  Arizona is off a home loss to the Rams but the Cards had more yardage in that game.  A week earlier they beat a very good Jacksonville team here.  This will be Arizona’s third straight home game while Tennessee is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks.  While the Cards have a 5-7 record and Titans are 8-4, the seasonal yardage numbers for these two teams are almost identical (Tennessee minus 4 YPG on the season / Arizona minus 2 YPG on the season).  Arizona is 21-11-1 ATS (65%) as a home underdog since the start of the 2007 season.  We like Arizona to win this game outright and we’ll gladly take the points here.

PLAY ON: #504 Indiana Pacers (+5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET - When these two teams last met in Cleveland on Nov 1 the Cavs were a 10-point favorite and lost 107-124. The natural swing of the line should make the Cavs favored here but not by this many points. The inflation of the number of course has to do with the Cavs current 13 game winning streak. But did you know that in that stretch of game the Cavs are just 6-7 ATS AND they've only played two teams with winning record. In fact, the combined records of the eleven losing teams the Cavs have beaten in this run is 89-172 so it's really not as impressive as you might think. Cleveland continues to be over-valued by the oddsmakers which is evident in their 3-16-1 ATS record as a favorite this season. Indiana has been a pleasant surprise this year at 14-11 SU, 8-4 at home. They've beaten the Raptors, Pistons and Spurs at home already this season so they can certainly beat this Cavs team. Indiana has covered 12 of the last 16 meetings with Cavaliers and will get it done tonight. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta +2 over New Orleans, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET

Falcons have to win this game after losing here vs Minnesota last Sunday 14-9.  Interestingly, the Birds were favored by 2 or 3 vs Minnesota and now vs Saints just 4 days later they are +2.  Value with Atlanta here.  The Falcons are on the fringe of the wild card and 2 full games behind the Saints in the NFC South.  New Orleans is off a huge home win over Carolina which has them sitting great in the NFC South with basically a 2 game lead over both Carolina & Atlanta as they now own the tie breaker over the Panthers.  After being held to just 9 points and under 300 total yards vs what we feel is the best defense in the NFL, we look for the Falcons to play MUCH better offensively in this one.  They have topped 30 points in 4 of their last 6 meetings with New Orleans.  Also the Saints defense, which looked really good through the middle of their schedule but did so facing a number of poor offenses (Chicago, Buffalo, Miami, TB, and Green Bay – without Rodgers) has now come back to earth a bit.  They have allowed 31, 26, and 21 points their last 3.  The Falcon offense will rebound here and we like the way this Atlanta defense is playing right now allowing 20 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games.  Atlanta continues to be the best statistical team in the NFL with a yards per play differential of +1.0 which is tops in the league.  The underdog is 13-3 ATS in this rivalry and the Falcons have covered 13 of their last 17 when getting points at home.  Just an absolute must win for a solid home team and we’ll take the Birds.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Temple -4 over Wisconsin, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

The Badgers are one of the youngest teams in the nation ranking 335th in experience out of 351 teams.  That means they will have ups and downs all season long.  That scenario played out already this week as Wisconsin was destroyed at home vs Ohio State in what was their worst loss EVER at the Kohl Center (83-58) only to turn around and win on Monday night at Penn State 64-63 as a 5.5 point underdog.  There were times on Monday night where Wisconsin had 4 freshman on the floor vs the Nittany Lions.  UW was in a good spot to come back with some fight after getting embarrassed by OSU and Penn State was coming off their first ever win @ Iowa so a letdown was a strong possibility.  The Badgers led by 17 in the 2nd half and held on for dear life was PSU missed a shot at the buzzer and Wisky held on 64-63.  Now just 48 hours later this team has to take the court again vs a very good Temple team.  The Owls are 4-2 on the season and all 4 wins have come against top 100 teams (South Carolina, Old Dominion, Auburn, and Clemson).  Even more impressive, none of those games were at home (all on neutral courts).  Speaking of home, we have a feeling Temple is fired up for this one not only because they face perennial power Wisconsin, but this is also their FIRST home game of the season.  Another motivator here for Temple is the fact they are coming off a 4-point loss @ George Washington, a game that was just a few days after the Owls knocked off last year’s Final 4 entrant South Carolina 76-60.  It looked like a letdown game for Temple and it was but now coming off that they should be extra hungry to win their first home game of the season.  Unlike Wisconsin, this is a veteran Owl team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up and they are balanced with 3 players averaging 14 PPG or more.  While the Owls are 4-0 vs top 100 teams, Wisconsin is just 1-5 vs teams ranked inside the top 100 with their only win coming Monday vs PSU by a single point as we discussed.  This young Badger team will have a tough time dealing with this quick turnaround after an emotional, must win game on Monday and they have in-state rival Marquette coming on Saturday to add to the mix.  We feel Temple is the better team this year and in the much better spot.  Lay this low number with the Owls at home.  

ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -2 over Arizona, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

While is considered a home game for Arizona it is not on their true home court.  The game is being played in Phoenix and while the crowd will obviously overwhelmingly in favor of the Cats it’s still 120 miles from Tucson to Phoenix and the fact that it is not in their own arena is a positive for A&M here.  Arizona has come into this season a bit overrated.  They just picked up their first top 100 win of the season on Saturday but that took OT vs a UNLV team that ranks 88th.  Even in that win the Cats had to rally from an 11 point halftime deficit.  Arizona is now just 1-3 on the season vs teams ranked inside the top 100.  Not only did they lose those 3 games to Purdue, SMU and NC State, the Wildcats were favored in all of those games.  A&M has been very good this season.  They are 7-0 and that includes a 4-0 record vs top 100 teams.  Not only have they won those games they’ve done so easily topping West Virginia, USC, Oklahoma State, and Penn State all by double digits.  Even more impressive, none of those games were at home with 3 being neutral site wins on top of their win @ USC.  The Aggie defense has been fantastic as they rank 4th nationally in defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, and 1st in 3 point FG% defense.  They are also a very good rebounding team and we know defense & rebounding travels well.  Thus why A&M has played so well away from home this season.  These two met last season in Houston and Arizona pulled off the tight 67-63 loss.  The Aggies are simply the much better team at this point in the season and we expect another comfortable win vs another top 100 team.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -2.5 over North Dakota State, Monday at 8:00 PM ET

Quick revenge game here for Mizzou State.  These two teams met @ Missouri State on November 17th and NDSU pulled off the 57-54 upset as a 9.5 point underdog.  Missouri State led 51-48 with under 4:00 minutes remaining and didn’t score a basket the rest of the way.  On top of that, the Bears were a ridiculously poor 1 of 17 (6%) from 3 point range and still led late in the game.  This is an experienced team with all upperclassmen in their top 8 players and they have been waiting for this game after that loss.  The Bears just played @ South Dakota State, one of the pre-season favorites in the Summit, and beat them by 20 points.  We definitely rated South Dakota State ahead of this NDSU team who is more than likely a middle of the pack squad in the Summit.  The Bison are just 3-4 on the year and their only other wins besides their upset win over Mizzou State were against teams rated below 300.  Three of their four losses have come double digits.  They are not a great offensive team ranking 231st in offensive efficiency and they are playing a Missouri State defense that ranks 19th nationally in eFG% defense.  NDSU has been held under 60 points in 3 of their 7 games and we don’t think they get there tonight.  We also expect Missouri State to play MUCH better offensively in this game and they should get plenty of 2nd chances as they are a very good rebounding team (12th nationally in offensive rebounding) and North Dakota State is not.  This veteran Missouri State team is the favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference and they have all kinds of motivation here.  Lay the small number on the road.

ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH!

We were on the Jets last week and feel we had the right side.  Carolina was favored by 6 and won by 8 but were very fortunate to do so.  The Jets actually outgained the Panthers by nearly 100 yards but allowed 2 non-offensive TD’s in the 4th quarter (fumble return & punt return) and even with that were down by just 5 in the final minute.  The way the game timed out the Panthers were forced to kick a FG with 20 seconds left as they were not able to run the clock out.  NY was impressive offensively putting up 27 points and nearly 400 yards vs one of the top defenses in the NFL (Panthers are 2nd in NFL in total defense).  QB McCown has been surprisingly good this year including over 300 yards vs the Panthers last week and we actually would take him over KC QB Smith who has been bad over the last month plus.  The Jets offense should be solid again this week vs a KC defense that ranks 27th in the NFL.  The Chiefs, on the other hand, simply can’t score anymore.  Last week they faced a Buffalo defense that had allowed a whopping 135 points over their previous 3 games and Alex Smith and company were only able to put up 10 points and lost at home.  Buffalo had been outgained in 9 straight games before putting up more yards than KC last Sunday.  The Chiefs have now lost 5 of their last 6 games with their one win coming by a single point and have scored 17, 9, and 10 points over their last 3.  The Jets are 3-3 at home and their 3 losses have come vs 3 of the better teams in the NFL (New England, Carolina, and Atlanta) and all were one score games.  KC doesn’t rate anywhere near those teams right now yet they are still laying points here.  We like the Jets to win this game outright.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -2.5 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Packers last home game was a debacle as they lost 23-0 to Baltimore.  They will absolutely want to atone for that performance and they picked up some momentum last week @ Pittsburgh.  Although a loss, they took one of the best teams in the NFL, in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL to the wire in a 31-28 win.  After throwing up an egg at home the previous week, the GB offense played much better against one of the top defensive units in the league.  QB Brett Hundley threw for 245 yards and 3 TD’s in his best performance yet.  Now after facing two of the best defense teams on back to back weeks, we expect the offense to look good again as they take a big step down facing a Bucs defense that ranks last in the NFL in both YPG defense (395 YPG) and YPP defense (6.1).  Tampa goes back to Jameis Winston at QB here and we actually think that is a negative for their offense.  The Bucs were able to win 2 of their last 3 games with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, albeit vs the Jets and Dolphins, but he had them playing OK on that side of the ball.  Winston has a bad shoulder and was simply poor losing 5 straight before he went on the shelf for a few weeks.  We don’t think he magically starts to perform well here.  Tampa is just 1-5 on the road this year with their only win coming @ Miami in a game the Bucs were outgained by 130 yards.  They have been a terrible road team in general winning just 16 of their last 53 away from home.  Green Bay should have a spark here coming off a solid performance.  They also receive word that Aaron Rodgers has a chance to come back in a few weeks and with games vs Tampa and Cleveland the next two weeks, this team could push themselves right back into the playoff race.  Packers are the side here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Hurricanes (+) over Clemson Tigers, Saturday at 8:00 ET: Game #325

This is the ACC Championship Game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC. Miami was undefeated and ranked #2 in the country entering last week's "trap game" at Pittsburgh. Sure enough the Hurricanes got caught up in the hype and got upset on the road by the Panthers. That loss will prove to be the best thing that could have happened to Miami as they respond this week. They are fired up for a chance to return the favor after being unseated as one of the top teams in the country. Now the Canes face top-ranked Clemson! Of course the Hurricanes were looking ahead to this game but now still control their own destiny as, with a win here against the defending champs, they'll likely secure a playoff spot. The Tigers have had a surprisingly strong season after losing so much talent from last year's team. The key here is that, against 4 common foes this season, Miami has outgained those teams by 86 yards per game while Clemson outgained that same quartet by 54 yards per game. The point is that there is not a lot of difference between these two teams. Miami head coach Mark Richt did a great job at Georgia and now is transforming the Hurricanes program. The Canes, prior to last week's loss, had won 15 straight games dating back to last season! In terms of historical trending, Miami is an incredible 13-1 ATS as a dog of less than 15 points when off of a SU loss by a double digit margin! Off of last week's embarrassing loss by 10 points at Pitt, the Hurricanes are now nearly a double digit dog versus Clemson and the markets have simply over-reacted based on last week's results. The last time these teams met (Oct 2015), the Tigers were up 42-0 at half and won 58-0. Even though that defeat was the pre-Richt era at Miami, the Hurricanes haven't forgotten that loss and revenge is in order here. There is also some significance with that as Clemson is 0-4 ATS as a favorite when they are facing a team that is seeking revenge and is coming off of a SU loss as a favorite. Again, last week's upset loss at Pittsburgh has set this one up perfectly for a play on a fired up Miami team that has played to the level of the opposition all season long. Grab the generous points here with Miami Saturday evening.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Belmont -14.5 over UW Green Bay, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

Belmont will be hungry for a big win here at home after losing their last 3 games.  The Bruins have played a very tough slate (72nd strength of schedule) including 4 top 100 teams.  They are 2-2 in those games having beaten MTSU on the road and they topped Vandy by 9 here at home.  However their most recent two top 100 games were losses @ Providence by just 1 point and @ TCU earlier this week.  Now they take a HUGE step down facing a UWGB team that is among the worst shooting teams in the nation.  The Phoenix have played a brutally easy schedule with 4 of their 5 opponents ranked 259th or lower.  Their most recent two game home stand Green Bay faced two of the weakest teams in the nation.  They beat Florida A&M (ranked 336th nationally out of 351) and won by 7.  They followed that up with a double digit loss at home vs Stetson who’s ranked 310th nationally.  Despite that weak schedule, the Phoenix are shooting just 34% on the season and  only 31% in games away from home.  They rank 341st nationally in eFG%.  On top of that, this team loves to play up tempo which is a recipe for being on the wrong end of blowouts when you can’t shoot and playing a solid motivated team on the road.  Belmont is a very solid program coming off a 23-7 years with 7 straight 20 win seasons under their belt.  Unlike UWGB they shoot the ball very well coming in at 46th nationally in eFG%.  Inside the arc they hit over 60% of their attempts (11th nationally) and that’s against a very tough schedule as we stated.  They should destroy the Phoenix inside the arc where UWGB allows opponents to shoot over 55%.  Belmont lost their most recent home game which is a rarity as this team has won 34 of their last 37 games on their home court.  You can bet coming off 3 straight loss – to teams all rated much higher than GB – and off a home loss this team is itching to blow someone out.  We think it happens here. 

We will play ON #715 New Orleans Pelicans (-2.5) over @ Utah Jazz, 9PM ET. If you were a casual bettor and you looked at tonight's game you'd probably bet the home team here that has won 4 straight games and that's GETTING points. Utah's 9-4 SU home record is a little deceiving as only 4 of those wins came over teams with winning records. In their most recent four game winning streak they beat an awful Bulls team, good Bucks and Nuggets teams and a beat up, declining Clippers team.  We really love the fact the Pelicans are coming off an awful loss at home to the Wolves where Anthony Davis was ejected. Prior to that game the Pelicans had 3 days off so they'll be rested and ready here. Utah doesn't have the depth on the interior to match Boogie Cousins and Davis with Rudy Gobert on the shelf so points in the paint will be easy to come by for New Orleans. The Pelicans have covered 7 of eleven road games this year and will get a much need W in Utah tonight. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Temple +1.5 over South Carolina, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPNU

The Gamecocks come in with a 5-1 record but that was expected as they’ve played a very easy slate thus far. In fact, their game vs Temple tonight will be their first against a top 100 team this season. The highest rated team the SC has played was Illinois State at 117th and they lost that game. Other than that they’ve played 2 games vs 124th ranked Western Michigan and then nobody else ranked inside the top 200. They look like they are a bit overrated right now and that’s understandable as the Gamecocks were in the Final 4 a year ago. This isn’t the same team however with only 34% of their total minutes returning from last season. Temple, on the other hand, is a very experienced team with 75% of their minutes back from last year. The Owls have played only 4 games on the season (3-1 record) but even with that they’ve played a MUCH tougher slate to date. Unlike South Carolina, the Owls have played 3 top 100 teams and beat them all (Clemson, Auburn, and Old Dominion) and those games were on a neutral court. With that, this team has proven they can get it done away from home as they have not yet played a home game. While tonight’s game is another neutral site venue in NYC it’s much closer for Temple (just 96 miles away). Both of these teams score the majority of their points from beyond the arc but Temple is much better at shooting from deep (42% from 3 for Temple to 35% for South Carolina). The Owls are also defend the arc more efficiently allowing just 28% which is 24th nationally. We feel that Temple is and will be much better than people might think (undervalued) while South Carolina will have a big drop from last year’s magical run (overvalued). With Temple getting points here will grab it as we expect the Owls to win outright.

ASA PLAY ON: #746 Northern Iowa (-1) over UNLV, 8Pm ET. We will play AGAINST the UNLV Runnin Rebels at Northern Iowa Panthers. The staff at Northern Iowa is really good and they'll have their team prepared for a game against the undefeated Rebels tonight. UNI has played the 94th toughest schedule to date featuring games against North Carolina and Villanova. The Panthers game against Nova was much closer than the final score indicates especially considering UNI didn't attempt a free throw in the game. UNLV is undefeated on the season at 6-0 and have some impressive individual statistics but a LARGE reason why they have such fantastic numbers is a result of a very weak schedule (344th). This will mark their first true road game as they are leaving the state of Nevada for the first time this season. This roster features 8 new faces and are young to begin with so a tough road date, facing a team off a loss will be a tall order. UNLV was picked to finish 6th in the MWC so clearly they've over-exceeded expectations to this point. The Panthers return 12 letterwinners from last year's team including 3 starters. The Panthers have the 8th best scoring defense in the nation and have held their last six opponents to under 53PPG on 33.5% shooting. UNI was picked to finish 2nd in the tough Missouri Valley Conference and have a 136-35 SU record at the McLeod Center. Easy call here with the home team. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* USC -3 over Texas A&M, Sunday at 10 PM ET

This is a terrible spot for A&M.  We realize they are a very solid team this year, but not in this spot.  This will be the Aggies 4th game in the last 7 days.  Not only that, they’ve been all over the country.  They played in New York City last Monday & Tuesday.  Then played at home on Friday.  Now 2 days later they are on the west coast @ USC.  Add that to the fact this team began the season in Germany vs West Virginia and they’ve put on more miles than most everyone in college basketball.  A&M head coach Kennedy mentioned his team was sluggish at home Friday night in a win over Pepperdine.  Fatigue was a factor according to Kennedy.  USC is a team that was 26-10 last year, made it to the Sweet 16 last year and returns all 5 starters.  They are 4-0 and should be well rested here having not played since Wednesday and that was a home game.  USC beat A&M on the road last year 65-63 with the same starting 5 and we think with this situation they win and cover at home tonight.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis +3.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH

The Colts are in a good spot here.  They are rested and ready to go off a bye week and they are actually playing solid football right now.  Their last 3 games were a 1-point loss @ Cincy, a win @ Houston, and a 3-point loss here vs Pittsburgh.  Their tight loss vs Pittsburgh was a game the Steelers never led until the final FG of the game as time expired.  Tennessee has had zero success here in Indy losing 11 straight.  Not only has this team not won here in over a decade, t’s also a Titans team that isn’t very good on the road period.  Their last 4 road games were a loss @ Miami, they were destroyed @ Houston, barely won in OT (12-9 final) @ Cleveland, and then just lost 40-17 @ Pittsburgh.  They have also lost 15 of their last 16 AFC South road games!  These two met in mid October in Tennessee and the Titans won 36-22.  However, that was a very deceiving final as the game was tied at 22-22 with just 6:00 remaining in the game.  That was also when the Colts weren’t playing nearly as well as they are right now.  That win over Indy gave Tennessee a 1-16 record vs Indy over their last 17 meetings.  That’s right, one win for Tennessee in 17 meetings.  This Titan team is overrated with a 6-4 record but a -31 point differential which ranks 10th in the AFC!  We feel the Colts with an improving QB Brissett has a great shot to win this game.  Even if they don’t, we have more than a FG cushion with the number.  Colts are the play here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Washington Huskies, Saturday at 8:00 ET: Game #183

The Cougars seek revenge for 4 straight losses by double digits in the "Apple Cup" series since they got the upset win over Washington in the first season of coach Mike Leach's tenure. He and the Washington State players certainly are highly motivated here by much more than just the revenge factor! If the Cougars can pull off the upset here they'll be in the PAC-12 title game. Of course the Huskies would love to prevent that but they already blew their opportunity earlier this month. Washington was in control of their own destiny but then lost at Stanford by 8. The Huskies followed that up by barely squeaking by Utah last week and that game was at home in Seattle. Now Washington hosts their in-state rival that dispatched of that same Utes team but in Utah and by 8 points! Additionally, that was two weeks ago and then last week Washington State enjoyed a late-season bye week. You can bet that coach Leach will have his troops ready here and they are 3-1 ATS off of a bye week. The Cougars are also 4-0 ATS as an underdog in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. The Huskies have a long-term mark of 23-35 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. Washington State is averaging 377.25 passing yards per game on the road this season. The Cougars also are much better defensively (303.8 ypg) than in any of Leach's prior seasons and the Huskies defense has looked much more susceptible as their schedule has toughened. Against the Utes and the Cardinal the past two weeks, Washington has allowed over 400 yards in each game. The late season bye makes a huge difference here and the Cougars have a great shot at the outright win here which makes the big points a huge bonus in our favor! Grab the generous points here with Washington State Saturday evening.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs (-1.5) over Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - The Bugs are coming off a very tough loss last night to the Cavaliers by a point and this marks their 3rd game in four nights, second of a back to back. San Antonio meanwhile is rested AND coming off a loss so expect a bounce back here. As you would expect the Spurs have a decisive advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency unit and the overall efficiency differential. The Spurs have been dealing with a multitude of injuries this season but are now starting to get healthy sans Kawhi Leonard. We expect a Hornets team to have a hard time getting back up tonight to play another A level team after last night's road loss. Charlotte is just 15-20-1 ATS since 2015 when playing without rest. Play on San Antonio.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Loyola Chicago -5.5 over Kent State, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET

Loyola is dialed in right now having gone 6-0 to start the season with five of those wins coming by double digits. The Ramblers have a +14.4 point differential right now which is 51st in the nation. Loyola is getting it done on the offensive and defensive ends of the court as they are shooting over 55.5% (3rd best in NCAA) from the field and holding opponents to just 38.7% (46th best). Kent on the other hand is shooting 46% and allowing 44.2% to opponents.  Loyola holds a significant edge when it comes to 3-point shooting over the Flashes with a 40.4% percentage compared to 28.7% (Kent 302nd in country). Last night Kent played Valparaiso who is rated lower than Loyola in our overall rankings yet the Ramblers are only favored here by a few points more than Valpo was last night and they won by 10-points. Loyola is on a 16-3 SU non conference winning streak and we like them to get a double-digit win here! Lay the points!

ASA PLAY ON: Dallas Cowboys (+1) over the LA Chargers, Thursday 4:30PM ET - The value in the number here is undeniable as the Cowboys, even without Elliott, should be a 3 or more point favorite. The Cowboys at home against the Packers with Rodgers were a 3-point chalk. The Chargers were at Oakland and the NY Giants a few weeks back and were 3-point dogs. I'll repeat that...the Chargers were 3-point underdogs AT THE NY GIANTS who are one of the 4 worst teams in the league! Dallas is coming off two horrible showings against two hot teams right now which has caused the oddsmakers to over-adjust this line. The Cowboys went to Atlanta 2 weeks ago and faced a desperate Falcons team and were blown out. Last week they played arguably the best team in the NFL, Philly, off a bye week. L.A. blew out the Bills on the scoreboard but benefitted from 6 turnovers and only outgained the Bills by just 36 yards. There is a big discrepancy in the strengths of schedule here as the Chargers have played the easier schedule yet their season stats are near identical. The Cowboys will hopefully have left tackle Smith back here but it shouldn't matter as the Cowboys rushing attack (4th in NFL at 140RYPG) should exploit the NFL's WORST rush defense of the Chargers (allowing 139RYPG). 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -3 over Detroit, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET

The Vikes have been waiting for this one since losing at home to Detroit 14-7 back on October 1st.  Minnesota outgained Detroit in the game and held the Lions to just 3.7 YPP while averaging 5.4 YPP.  The difference were the turnovers as Minnesota had 3 and Detroit had none.  The Vikings led at halftime but 2 fumbles in the 3rd quarter led to all of the Lions 11 second half points.  Detroit had to come struggled each of the last 2 weeks to get by Cleveland at home and @ Chicago last Sunday.  They were outgained by both of those struggling offenses and trailed by double digits in each.  Get behind here and they are in big trouble against a Minnesota defense that is playing shut down ball right now.  Last week they completely stymied the #1 scoring offense in the league holding the Rams to 7 points and only 254 total yards.  Minnesota’s offense continues to click as the put up 24 points vs a very good Rams defense in that easy win.  QB Case Keenum continues to play at a very high level as he now ranks 2nd in the entire NFL in QBR behind only Deshaun Watson who is out for the season.  Detroit has been beating the poor teams but struggling against good teams.  They have already lost at home to Atlanta, Carolina, and Pittsburgh with their home wins coming against Arizona & Cleveland.  The Vikings are playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now winning 6 straight games.  They are better than Detroit on BOTH sides of the ball (5th in total offense to 16th AND 5th in total defense to 23rd for Detroit) and should have a little extra edge after losing at home 6 weeks ago.  Minnesota wins and covers here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* St Louis -11 over Detroit, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET

Defense and rebounding are the key here and St Louis has huge edges in both.  Detroit is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation ranking 344th (out of 351) in defensive efficiency.  They have already allowed 3 of their 4 opponents this year to top 100 points.  Teams are shooting 53% vs Detroit overall and 43% from beyond the arc.  Just a poor defense all around.  This team is also a bad rebounding team.  They rank below 250th in BOTH offensive and defensive rebounding.  In their two losses, their only games vs teams with a pulse, they were -32 on the glass.  Those games came against Seattle & Virginia Tech.  Their two wins have come against Michigan Dearborn & Houston Baptist (in OT).  They lost at home to Seattle 102-71 and on a neutral court to Va Tech 111-79.  In an interesting early season twist, we have some direct comparisons to make as SLU has also played those two teams.  The Billikens won both of those games beating a good Virginia Tech team 77-71 on a neutral court and whipping Seattle 62-46 here at Chaifetz Arena in St Louis.  While we mentioned that Detroit was -32 on the boards in those two games, the Billikens were +21 on the glass vs those same teams.  While neither of these teams is a great shooting team, we expect SLU to benefit from extra opportunities from offensive rebounds.  They should also shoot better than their average here as they are at home and facing a very poor defense.  St Louis runs away with this one.

ASA PLAY ON: #761 Samford +11.5 over @Valparaiso, 8PM ET - This is a very interesting line and the value clearly lies with Samford in this matchup. Let' start with the Bulldogs. They return 90% of their scoring from a season ago from a team that finished 20-16 overall. Conversely, the Crusaders lost 60% of their scoring and have 9 of 12 underclassmen on the roster. The comparable schedules for these two teams isn't even close as Valpo has played North Park, Trinity Christian College, Southern Illinois Edwardsville and Southeast Louisiana. They beat those four lower level teams handily. On the other hand, Samford is 1-3 on the year and the three losses came against Loyola Chicago, LSU and Arkansas who are a combined 10-0 this season. Samford was +10.5 at Arky, +8 at LSU and +7 at Loyola who is projected to finish 3 spots higher than Valparaiso this year in the MVC. Samford loves the role as the underdog as they covered all 4 games last year as a double-digit pooch. Grab the points!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +3 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Lions won at home 38-24 over a terrible Cleveland team last week but it wasn’t nearly that easy.  Detroit was actually down 24-17 late in the 3rd quarter and they were outgained by a bad Cleveland offense in that game.   Speaking of the bad Browns offense, they put up over 400 yards last week on Detroit including 200 on the ground and were +10 in first downs.  On top of that, Cleveland blew a number of scoring chances including getting inside the Detroit 5-yard line twice and coming away with zero points.  Definitely a deceiving final score and a game Cleveland could have won.  Chicago has been more than competitive at home.  They beat both Carolina and Pittsburgh here and lost tight games to Minnesota & Atlanta.  Last week was the first time they were favored at home this year facing Green Bay and the laid an egg losing 23-17.  Detroit has a winning record at 5-4 but we feel they are overvalued because of that.  The fact is they have been outgained in 6 of their last 8 games.  On the season they are -14 YPG and -0.2 YPP which is very similar to Chicago who is -24 YPG and -0.2 YPP on the year.  Chicago at home, getting points, with a big edge on defense (9th overall to 23rd) is a solid play.  The Bears are 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 as a home dog and Detroit is just 2-13 ATS after scoring 35+ points.  Take Chicago.   

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon Ducks (-) over Arizona Wildcats, Saturday at 7:00 ET: Game #366

Oregon was 4-1 with Justin Herbert as the starter at QB. He is expected back for this one on Saturday. Even if he does not play, the Ducks are likely to run all over Arizona in this one. The Wildcats have allowed 267.7 rushing yards per game on the Pac-12 road this season. The Ducks have run for an average of 279 yards per game their last 4 games. Also, in Oregon's home games this season they've run for at least 328 yards in 3 of the 5 games. Arizona comes into this game off of a big home win while the Ducks are hungry off of a road loss. Look for the defenses to play a key role here too. Oregon has played quite well on the defensive side of the ball at home this season with only allowing 348 yards per game. Comparatively, the Wildcats allow 471 yards per game on the road this season. Though the Ducks beat the Wildcats in the 2014 Pac-12 Championship Game, Arizona did win its last regular season visit to Eugene (that same season) and this is the first match-up since 2014. The Ducks will look to get some payback and are still looking for the all-important 6th win to become bowl eligible. The Ducks have played the tougher strength of schedule this season and the line value is with Oregon at home! The Ducks have a solid long-term record of 12-3 SU and ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less. The Wildcats are on a 5-10 ATS run in road games and a 6-15 ATS runs as an underdog. The Ducks also are off of their bye week and they have excellent long-term stats of 30-12 SU and 26-13 ATS when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest between games. Arizona also has their big rivalry game with Arizona State on deck (a much more competitive rivalry than the Ducks/Beavers) as Oregon does have Oregon State on deck. With the Ducks needing their 6th win and the Wildcats unable to get to the Pac-12 Championship Game we expect the rested Ducks to dominate a distracted Arizona team that is looking ahead to the Sun Devils. Lay the small number here with Oregon Saturday evening.