ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Arizona Coyotes, Monday at 5:30 PM ET

The Avalanche are nearly a $2.00 favorite on the money line here so the value, if you want to play Colorado (like we do!) in this one, is definitely with utilizing the puck line.  By laying the 1.5 goals with the Avs, you can get a plus money return in the +150 range.  We look for a dominating win from Colorado here.  They outshot the Coyotes 51 to 21 in Game 3 but ended up on the wrong end of a 4-2 final.  Game 2 was a 3-2 Avalanche win that easily could have ended 4-2 and Game 1 was a 3-0 Avs win.  The point is that expecting this game to end up decided by a margin of 2 or more goals is certainly not expecting too much and we love the big plus money being offered with one of the best teams in the NHL looking to bounce back off a loss.  Again, the Avalanche dominated that game but fell short on the scoreboard.  In Monday's Game 4 it is payback time.  Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting a fantastic return, currently in +150 range) with Colorado is the value play here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET

The Phillies have struggled early this season but the Orioles are certainly no powerhouse and this is the ideal situation to back the home team and expect a rout.  Philadelphia is nearly a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line but on the run line we get them down to a price in the pick'em range and there is plenty of support for expecting a win by 2 or more runs here.  4 of the Phillies 5 wins this season have come by a margin of 4 or more runs!  When they win they generally win big.  Also, Philadelphia has lost each of the last two games against Baltimore and the Phillies are 2-0 this season when they enter a game off back to back losses and each of the 2 wins came by a blowout margin.  Jake Arrieta has been a stronger starter at home than on the road since coming to the Phillies and he is healthy again and coming off a dominating performance against the Braves at Citizens Bank Park.  He'll be opposed by Thomas Eshelman who, though drafted by the Astros, actually came up through the Phillies farm system.  But in 2018 at AAA Lehigh Valley he went 2-13 with a 5.84 ERA.  In his major league appearances (12 games, 5 starts) Eshelman has a 6.02 ERA.  The way Arrieta is dealing right now and the way Eshelman has struggled, as well as the situational factors here, this one sets up to be all Phillies!   Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in afternoon action Thursday.

ASA top play 10* on: Phoenix Suns -7 over Dallas Mavericks, 4PM ET How about the swing on the line in this matchup as these same two teams met earlier in the Bubble and the Mavericks were a 6-point favorite but are now a 7-point dog. But the situation for both teams is drastically different at this point in time as the Mavs are locked into the 7th seed and Phoenix still has a shot to get in. To put this as delicately as possible, Dallas would be stupid to play their Superstars here or other starters as health is key to make a long playoff run. We don’t expect to see Doncic or Porzingis for the Mavs against this red-hot Suns team Thursday. Phoenix is 7-0 in the Bubble and have played incredible basketball in the restart with Devon Booker leading the way. Phoenix has an average point differential of +11.3PPG in the Bubble which is the best overall number in the league and has won five of their seven games by 7 or more points. Are we betting a bad line here? No given the circumstances.

ASA top play 10* on: Houston Rockets -8 over Indiana Pacers, 4PM ET You know the old saying, “when something looks to good to be true, it isn’t”. That’s the case with this line on the Rockets vs. Pacers game as the line is much higher than it should be and is attracting public money on Indiana. In true contrarian fashion we will bet opposite and play on the Rockets. We feel the Rockets desperately want to hold on to the 4 or 5 seed and avoid the two Los Angeles teams and the red-hot Nuggets in the first round. A win here essentially locks up the 4/5 seed for Houston. The Rockets played yesterday and were embarrassed by the Spurs with James Harden on the bench. The NBA’s leading scorer is expected to suit up today for the Rockets and can literally carry this team like he’s done so often in the past. The Pacers have several starters listed as doubtful today with Turner, Oladipo, Brogdon questionable and TJ Warren listed as out. That tells us the Pacers aren’t as interested in this game as they are Friday’s against the Miami Heat who they will likely face in the first round of the Playoffs. The Rockets hold slight advantages in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the Bubble games and will squeak out a double-digit win here.

ASA top play 10* on: Denver Nuggets +5.5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET This is an interesting number considering how well Denver has looked in the Bubble games compared to how bad the Lakers have played. Let us examine this number a little closer. The Lakers were just favored by minus -5.5 points against the Pacers and Thunder in recent games and lost both to teams’ inferior to the current Nuggets. The Washington Wizards have not won a game in the Bubble and have been horrendous offensively with a 1.031 points per possession efficiency rating. Believe it or not, the Lakers have been WORSE than the Wizards on the offensive end with an OEFF of .977PPP. That can’t be said about a Denver offense that is 5th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the five Bubble games at 1.176 points per possession. The Nuggets have gotten a huge scoring boost from Michael Porter Jr. who is averaging over 25PPG and 10RPG in the Bubble. They also got Jamal Murray back from injury who paid immediate dividends in the Nuggets win over Utah with 23-points, 12-rebounds and 8-assists. And we haven’t even gotten to Nikola Jokic who continues to play at a very high level. The Lakers are 2-4 SU in their six games in the restart and are mainly concerned about staying healthy for the playoffs. The Lakers season point differential is +6.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. In the Bubble games they have a negative differential of -7.2PPG second to last of the teams still playing. This Denver team is going to be a dangerous out in the Playoffs and the Lakers just aren’t engaged at this point in time. Easy call with the Underdog here.

ASA top play 10* on San Antonio Spurs +3 over New Orleans Pelicans, 3:00PM ET We like the Spurs in this extremely important game for both teams as they battle for a spot in the Western Conference playoffs. San Antonio has gone to a small-ball lineup which has resulted in a 3-2 start in the Bubble games. The Spurs were also extremely competitive in both losses, getting beat by Denver by 6-points and Philadelphia by 2. San Antonio was just a 2-point dog to the red-hot Nuggets and are now getting 3-points from a struggling Pelicans team. New Orleans is 2-3 SU in the Bubble games and one of the wins came via the Wizards who have a negative differential in the Bubble of -10.5PPG. The Pels other win was against a struggling Memphis team that is 1-4 in the restart. In the last five games for each team the Spurs have a positive point differential of +2.2PPG while the Pelicans are negative at minus -3.8PPG. San Antonio has the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers in the restart, which is significantly better than the Pelicans who are averaging 1.089 points per possession which is 17th among the Bubble teams. The Spurs were +3.5-points in New Orleans in the regular season and won by 4-points. Now they are getting essentially the same number on a neutral floor and playing better than they were back in January. Easy call with the underdog here.

ASA top play 10* on Dallas Mavericks +5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30PM ET

The line on this game is telling you who to bet as the number is not what it should be. Milwaukee was just favored by -9.5 over a hot Miami team, -19 against the Nets and even minus 5 against Houston and are now laying -5.5 to the Mavericks? That’s an indicator that Vegas knows something we don’t so we will be betting Dallas plus the points. The Mavs have locked up a playoff berth but can also move up in the standings and avoid a possible first round match up with a Los Angeles team. Milwaukee struggled in a pair of losses to Houston and Brooklyn then rebounded with a big win over Miami so the sense of urgency to win has subsided for the Bucks off that win and having the #1 seed clinched in the East. Milwaukee is just 3-7 ATS their last ten games against the spread. Dallas is 1-3 SU in the four Bubble games but two of those losses were by 4 or less points. The Mavs are -7-1 ATS their last 9-games as a dog of 5 or more points. Don’t be surprised if Milwaukee rests starters here and the Mavs win outright.

ASA top play 10* on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET We like the Raptors here minus the short number as they have been much better defensively than the Celtics in the Bubble. Toronto is allowing just .967 points per possession which is best in the league since the restart, which is not a surprise considering they are 2nd overall in the league in D.E.F.F. On the season the Celtics are 5th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.073PPP, but in the Bubble they are giving up 1.154PPP which ranks them 16th out of 22 teams. Boston has had some gaudy offensive numbers in their four games since the restart and are coming off a 149-point outburst against the Nets, and they put up 128 two games ago against the Blazers. Those teams are in the bottom four of the current 22-team league in the Bubble in defensive efficiency ratings. Against Miami and Milwaukee (similar to Toronto in terms of defense) the Celtics offense wasn’t nearly as impressive in two losses. The Raptors have the best overall point differential in the restart at +9.7PPG and are 3-0. Prior to the break the Raptors had won four games making this a 7-game winning streak so why wouldn’t we back them here at this price. The Celtics are expecting Kemba Walker back for this game but that can be a negative too as flow and timing will be disrupted. Play Toronto here.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -4 over Dallas Mavericks 6:30PM ET This could be a potential first round matchup in the playoffs and we expect the LA Clippers to make a statement in this contest. We like backing elite NBA teams when they are off a loss which is the case here after the Clippers lost last time out to the Suns. Both teams are a disappointing 1-2 SU in the restart but the Mavs are off their first win over a struggling Kings team while the Clippers are off a loss as we mentioned before. Luka had a monster game against the Kings with a plus 30/20/10 game but that was against a Kings defense that isn’t nearly as good as this Clippers unit that allows just 1.073 points per possession which is 4th best in the NBA. Lou Williams will be back in the lineup for the Clippers to provide scoring off the bench and give the Clippers that added advantage they’ve been missing. The Clippers are 16-5 ATS off a loss this season with an average winning margin of 15.4PPG and 41-17 SU since 2018 when coming off a loss winning those games by 6.6PPG. Los Angeles has covered 4 of the last five meetings including a win most recently in Dallas by 3-points without Paul George. Lay the points with the Clippers.

ASA 10* top play on: New Orleans Pelicans (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 6:30PM ET - This is a critical game for both teams who are fighting for a playoff berth in the West and are 0-2 in the NBA re-start. Memphis is coming off a game yesterday against a big game versus the Spurs and will be un-rested in this matchup. The Grizzlies have been particularly good against the spread in this scheduling situation but that was before the long layoff. The Pelicans lost their opener to the Jazz in a close game then allowed the Clippers to make 25 of 47 three-pointers in a 23-point loss. These two teams are eerily similar in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and point differential. New Orleans was on a 6-1 ATS run on the road leading up to the Covid break which is significant considering these games in the bubble are essentially road games (neutral) for both teams. Conversely, the Grizz were 3-6 ATS their last nine road games and the three covers were against some of the league’s worst teams at Brooklyn, at Atlanta and at Washington. These two teams met in January and the Pelicans won by a combined 38-points and shot well in both games by hitting over 48% from the field. When it comes to shooting the long ball, the Pelicans shoot it better and defend it better than the Grizzlies do and that will be a huge factor in this outcome. Lay the points in a Pelicans double-digit win.

ASA top play 10* on: Orlando Magic (-) over Sacramento Kings, 6PM ET

Orlando went into the Covid-19 break with an 8-4 SU record their last twelve games and had covered 8 of their last nine games. In their first game of the restart they handled the Nets 128-118, but it could have been much worse as they led by as many of 30-points in the game at one point. The Magic had a great shooting night at 53% from the field, 35% from beyond the arc and 89% from the FT line. Orlando averaged just 106.7PPG on the season but put together a great performance Thursday and we expect that trend to continue here against the Kings. Sacramento is the 20th ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.118 points per possession. The Kings defense did not show up against the Spurs in the opener when they allowed San Antonio to shoot 53% from the field, 44% from beyond the 3-point line. The big advantage the Magic have here is their defense that is 9th in the league in defensive efficiency and they will put the clamps on the Kings offensive. The Magic have 8 straight covers on the road or neutral floors and are the bet in this match up.

ASA top play 10* on: Utah Jazz +1.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 3:30PM ET

This is an interesting line with several solid indicators to put us on the Jazz in this match up. Everyone just watched the Jazz play an extremely poor game against the Pelicans and don’t want anything to do with Utah here. We do! The Jazz turned it over 20 times in the opener against the Pelicans and shot just 24% from beyond the arc. We are betting we see the Jazz shoot it much better tonight considering they were the second best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 38.1% and turn it over on average 15 times per game. We also like the advantage the Jazz have with a game under their belt in this unusual environment. Utah is slightly better than the Thunder in average point differential this season (+3.2PPG vs. 2.5PPG), 9th in offensive efficiency compared to 14th for OKC and both are essentially even in defensive efficiency allowing 1.092 points per possession. Utah got balanced scoring with six players in double-digits, three of which were 20 plus. We like OKC, especially their road numbers but this situation clearly favors a Jazz team that have covered 7-straight as a Dog. Bet the Jazz in this one. 

ASA top play 10* on: Portland Trailblazers (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 4PM ET

In this day game showdown, we like the Blazers minus the short number. After a disappointing season, the Blazers have a great opportunity to right the ship in this 8-game mini-series and nab the 8 seed in the West. Standing in Portland’s way is the Memphis Grizzlies who currently hold the 8th seed in the West and a 3 ½ game lead over the Blazers. Portland will have the best player on the floor in Dame Lillard along with a host of veteran talent that has a ton of playoff experience. The Blazers can get scoring from several players on the roster including Carmelo Anthony and CJ McCollum along with Jusuf Nurkic who is back from injury. Memphis has an incredibly young roster and rising star in Ja Morant but the pressure in this 8-game season will be much more than the regular season games. Portland was much better in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.128 points per possession which is 7th best in the league. Memphis is 20th in O.E.F.F. at 1.094PPP. The Grizz hold the advantage on the defensive end of the court ranking 16th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while the Blazers are 27th. The key here will come down to 3-point shooting and the Blazers hold a big advantage when it comes to shooting from beyond the arc. Portland is the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the league at 37.2% while Memphis is 22nd in defensive 3-point FG percentage. The Blazers have a roster full of veterans that have played in big games and this second chance to save their season will have them prepared and focused. 

ASA 10* top play on: Utah Jazz +2.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, Thursday 6:30PM ET

 The wrong team is favored here as the number is set according to public perception which is that the Pelicans must win to get into the Playoffs. That is correct but the Jazz also have something to play for as they currently sit 4th in the West but could fall all the way to 7th which would mean a first round matchup with the Clippers or Nuggets. In this match-up we have the better overall team getting points so why wouldn’t we take Utah. The Jazz had the 8th best overall offensive efficiency rating prior to the break at 1.12 points scored per possession, New Orleans was 15th in O.E.F.F. on the season. There was a much wider margin when it comes to defense between these two teams as the Jazz were 10th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans were 21st allowing 1.11 points per possession. The Jazz were a much better road team on the season too with a 20-13 SU away record and an average margin of victory of 2.0PPG. Utah had the second-best offensive efficiency rating when playing on the road in the NBA. New Orleans had a losing road record on the season at 15-17 SU with a negative differential of -2.8PPG. Obviously, the reason we make the road comparisons is because there is no home court advantage in the Bubble NBA the rest of this season. All three regular season meetings between these two teams were close with Utah winning two of the three and we’ll predict another close Jazz win here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:05 PM ET

First off, you won't find us laying 2 to 1 odds on a money line. But we can get great value here (+105/+100 range as of Thursday night) by utilizing the run line (-1.5 runs) in this match-up. With that said, there is plenty of support for expecting a lopsided game at Citizens Bank Stadium Friday evening. The Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball. Last season Miami went 57-105 and that included an ugly 27-54 in road games. Not only do they lose 2 out of every 3 road games but how likely is a blowout loss here? The Marlins lost 77 games by 2 or more runs last season! That means about 3 of every 4 Miami losses comes by a margin of multiple runs. The Phillies saw 61 of their 81 wins last season come by a victory margin of at least 2 runs. Per our computer math model, this one will too. The Phillies Aaron Nola allowed only 2 earned runs in 14 and 2 / 3 innings of work at home against the Marlins last season. Overall at home Nola dominated last season (charged with just 2 losses all season) as he held opponents to a .219 batting average while racking up a 2.91 ERA! Miami starts Sandy Alcantara here and he is a respectable starter. However, the Phillies have given him some trouble and hit him quite hard. In Alacantara's match-ups with Philly in 2019 he was hit at a .333 clip. Alcantara allowed 27 hits plus walked 7 against the Phillies in 18 and 2 / 3 innings. That is nearly 2 base runners allowed per inning and that leads to trouble in no time. The Marlins are again projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball while the Phillies should challenge for the NL East title in this shortened 60-game season. This is a mismatch in terms of the lineup and the pitching and a strong play on the home team is in order here. Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -3 over Syracuse, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET

We were on UNC yesterday and picked up an easy win as the routed Va Tech.  We like the Heels again for many of the same reasons we stated yesterday.  This is a very talented team that simply had a poor season.  They have new life now with a shot to make the NCAA tourney and we felt they play as they’d play well and they did.  UNC is on a nice roll right now winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming @ Duke in a game that was closer than the final score indicated.  Much of their late season success is because this team is finally fully healthy.  Their top players, Cole Anthony, missed 11 games due injury.  Their 3rd leading scorer, Brandon Robinson, also missed time because of an injury and these two were rarely on the court at the same time.  Now they are healthy and in yesterday’s win over the Hokies they combined for 27 points, 14 rebounds, and 6 assists.  They were also both healthy when the Tar Heels faced this Syracuse team in the Carrier Dome late in the season.  UNC rolled to an easy 92-79 win in that game and it was the home finale for the Orange.  North Carolina is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and that showed last night as they gathered a huge 45 boards to just 30 for VT.  They were +9 on the glass @ Syracuse gathering 40% of their misses in that game in the Dome.  We see nothing changing here as the Cuse is the worst defensive rebounding team in the ACC and 329th nationally.  Add that to the fact that UNC is starting to play very well offensively averaging 85 PPG, 48% shooting, and 42% from 3 over their last 5 games while scoring more than 1.10 PPP in 4 of those 5 games, and it will be very tough for Syracuse to stay in this one.  The Orange had 10 ACC wins, however 6 of those came against the 4 lowest rated teams in the league (BC twice, Pitt twice, Wake, and Va Tech).  They are heading in the opposite direction losing 7 of their last 11 including a setback vs Miami FL (7-13 in the ACC) despite the Canes playing without their leading scorer.  UNC already proved they could handle Syracuse and that was on the road.  Now on a neutral court where the Heels were able to get comfortable playing yesterday (@ UNC Greensboro) we give them a big advantage here.  North Carolina remains very dangerous and they move on with another win.

ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +11.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET

We will go against the Lakers here and take Brooklyn plus the double digits. The Lakers are obviously coming off a pair of HUGE WINS over the Bucks and Clippers this weekend so don’t expect their focus or energy to be at a high level here against the lowly Nets. Not only are the Lakers off a couple big games but they also have the Rockets on deck. Brooklyn on the other hand will be amped to face LeBron and the Lakers. The Nets have a new coach in place now as they (Irving and Durant) recently decided to fire Kenny Atkinson and temporarily replace him with assistant Jacque Vaughn. The Nets have won two straight and three of their last four games, which includes a win at Boston. Brooklyn has cashed in 5 of their last six as an underdog and are a very attractive play here given the circumstances. As we already mentioned the Lakers are off two big games but in reality, it’s five straight as they also hosted Philly, went to New Orleans and played at Memphis. L.A. is 12-11 ATS as a double-digit chalk this season, 8-8 ATS when laying 11 or more points. The Lakers average winning margin at home this season is +9.7PPG which isn’t enough to get the money here. Despite the Nets 11-20 SU road record their average road differential of minus -3.1PPG is 18th in the NBA and slightly below league average of -2.7PPG. The Nets have been a double-digit dog just one time this season and this line is clearly an over-adjustment by the Lakers recent success. Easy call here with the puppy!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -2.5 over Virginia Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

UNC finished with a 6-14 ACC record which was their worst mark since 2010.  This is obviously a program that is used to winning as they’ve averaged 13 ACC wins over the previous 9 seasons leading into this year.  They have talent, including a lottery pick in PG Anthony, who is back after missing much of the season.  We think the Heels are a dangerous team right now for that reason.  It’s a new season and if the win the ACC tourney they go to the NCAA tourney.  New life for this team.  They were playing well down the stretch winning 3 of their last 4 with their only loss @ Duke over the weekend.  UNC lost that game by 13 but it was a 2-point game with under 10 minutes remaining.  This team was playing their best basketball of the season heading into Saturday’s game @ Duke as over the last 5 games they’ve averaged 80 PPG shooting 47% overall and 37% from deep.  Anthony, one of the best players in the country, missed 11 games from December 15th through the end of January.  Even though he’s a freshman, he should be fresh for this tourney.  Not only did Anthony miss time but Brandon Robinson, the Heels 3rd leading scorer, also missed a number of games this year including 4 straight between Feb 3rd and Feb 11th.  Both are back and healthy.  Since mid December, those 2 players have started and played together in only 6 games because of their injuries.  This is a full strength North Carolina team that was simply haven’t seen for much of the season.  Virginia Tech is an extremely young team with 5 freshmen in their top 7 including 3 starters.  Many times freshmen can struggle late in the year because it’s such a long season and a grind they are not used to.  We’ve seen that with the Hokies who’ve only won 2 of their last 12 games with those freshmen playing significant minutes.  This will be VT’s 4th game in the last 10 days with 3 of those coming on the road, including a loss @ Notre Dame just a few days ago (Saturday).  These two met once this season with Tech winning at home in OT 79-77.  The Tar Heels were very short handed for that game with both Anthony & Robinson out and still took the Hokieks to OT on the road.  UNC had some stinkers this year but for the most part they were competitive in their losses.  Six of their last nine losses have come by 6 points or less and that includes games vs Duke (lost on OT at home), Virginia (lost by 2) and FSU (lost by 6 on the road).  We’ve got a strong feeling we’ll see a very solid UNC team on Tuesday night as they enter a new season where everyone is 0-0.  Lay the points with the Tar Heels. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UW Green Bay +5 over Northern Kentucky, Monday at 9:30 PM ET

The Final 4 of the Horizon League tourney is being played in Indianapolis at IUPUI’s home court.  This game has the #2 seed Northern Kentucky facing the #3 seed UW Green Bay.  We really like how UWGB is playing coming into this game winning 7 of their last 9 games.  That includes a win last Thursday in the opening round of this tourney as they topped Oakland in Green Bay by a final score of 78-63.  Northern Kentucky had a bye and is playing their first game in this tourney.  We think that absolutely favors Green Bay.  They are playing well and sometimes a long layoff can be bad for a team.  The Phoenix played at home to end the regular season on Saturday, Feb 29th.  They followed that up with the win on Thursday we talked about above and now play tonight.  So plenty of rest between games while still playing.  NKU, on the other hand, hasn’t played a game period since Saturday, Feb 29th and that’s the only game they have played since February 22nd.  Thus the Norse have played 1 game in the last 15 days.  Not ideal in our opinion.  These two split their regular season match ups with UWGB winning @ NKU by 14 and the Norse returning the favor and winning @ Green Bay by 9.  The Phoenix are the much better shooting team in this match up.  They shoot 45% on the season and they are the 27th best 3-point shooting team in the nation.  NKU sits just inside 300th overall shooting (288th) and they are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (298th).  The defensive edge might go to Northern but if so it’s a slight one.  UWGB has never been known as a great defensive team although they’ve flown under the radar on that end of the court this season.  The rank 4th in eFG% defense, 4th in 2-point defense, and 3rd in the conference in 3-point defense.  They’ve also locked down NKU in their 2 meetings this year holding them to 35% shooting.  In their home loss to NKU, the difference was FT’s as the Norse attempted 27 freebies and made 20 while GB attempted 12 and made 7.  In a 9-point game that was absolutely the difference.  When the FT’s were basically even @ Northern Kentucky (16 attempts for GB / 13 attempts for NKU) the Phoenix won by double digits.  The Norse finished 2nd in the conference 2 games ahead of GB but we think the Phoenix are the better team right now.  Take the points.

ASA play on: Clippers -2 over Lakers, 3:30PM ET

We’ve said it from day 1 and will say it again, the Clippers are going to win the NBA Championship unless some unforeseen major injuries occur. LeBron couldn’t elevate his teammates last year so they added a top 5 players in the league in Anthony Davis along with several other top level vets. But the Clippers have outdone the Lakers with their own additions of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard then recently landed Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris. The Clippers 2nd unit is the best in the NBA and could potentially be a playoff team by themselves. The Lakers are coming off a big win over the Milwaukee Bucks at home and had the perfect game plan to contain Giannis but the Clippers have to many options to control. The Clippers recent resume includes wins at Houston by 15, at a hot OKC team by 15 along with home wins over Philly and a blowout of Denver. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS the last ten meetings and have a home average winning margin of +9.7PPG. LeBron can’t ‘bully’ his way to the rim in this game with Kawhi, Morris and Beverly defending him and we don’t feel the Lakers can adapt. Bet the Clippers as they are at full strength, have the better coach and roster.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Valparaiso, Sunday at 2 PM ET

Valpo is are now playing their 4th straight game in the MVC tourney and history says they won’t win this one.  In fact, never has a MVC team played in the opening round on Thursday and won this tournament.  In other words winning 4 games in 4 days has never happened here.  The physical toll is just too much to overcome.  They are a tired and their coach Matt Lottich admitted as much.  Their top player, Javon Freeman-Liberty, just returned from mono and looked really tired the first 2 games.  Lottich also said Freeman-Liberty was still “under the weather”.  Well he scored 29 points yesterday which we didn’t see happening and played another 33 minutes.  We just don’t see him being effective in this spot after logging 101 minutes the last 3 days coming off a fairly significant illness.  Based on his performance the first 2 games which was not good, yesterday was an outlier and we think he, along with the entire Valpo team will struggle today. Three of their starters have played over 100 minutes already in this tourney and they have to be tired.  There is no way around that.  They shot 48% yesterday which was again, unexpected and an outlier in our mind after they shot 43% and 42% their first 2 games.  After averaging 0.88 and 1.03 points per possession in their first 2 games here, the Crusaders broke out for 1.24 PPP in yesterday’s game.  Again, we just don’t see them being able to keep up at that rate, especially now facing a Bradley defense that was #1 in the MVC in eFG% defense.  The Crusaders were also given a boost by the refs as they called 25 fouls on Missouri State and just 16 on Valpo leading to 16 more FT attempts (+10 made FT’s).  Again an outlier as the Crusaders got to the line fewer than any other team in the MVC during the regular season.  The Braves will be playing their 3rd game in this tourney so they should definitely have more energy than Valpo.  They also controlled the entire game yesterday in their 10 point win vs Drake so they were able to spread out their minutes with 8 guys getting double digit minutes.  Bradley is also accustomed to this situation as they won this tournament last year before losing in the first round of the NCAA tourney to Michigan State.  These 2 split their meetings this year with Valpo winning by 12 on their home court and Bradley winning by 11 at home.  The favorite has covered 6 straight in this series and we just don’t see Valparaiso bringing enough energy to the table to allow them to get a win in this do or die spot.  Lay it with Bradley.   

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Buffalo Sabres, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET

Carter Hart, barring any unforeseen circumstances, is the confirmed goalie for the Flyers tonight and that is a key.  Hart has been incredible on home ice all season long and did it again in Philadelphia's 4-1 win over the Hurricanes on Thursday.  Hart is 19-2-2 with a 1.64 GAA on home ice this season.  The Sabres counter with Carter Hutton.  Buffalo's Hutton has allowed 17 goals in his last 5 road starts.  He has been respectable in most starts but the Flyers Hart has been out of this world spectacular in his home starts.  Not only that but 14 of Philadelphia's last 15 wins have come by a multiple-goal margin.  That is why there is a comfort level here with laying the 1.5 goals on the Flyers and getting a plus money price (currently +120) back in return.  This is a suburb value on a 2 to 1 money line favorite that enters this game on an 8-game winning streak and generally always wins by 2 or more goals.  The Sabres have lost 5 straight games and each of the last 4 defeats have been by 2 or more goals.  Buffalo has gone 6 straight games without scoring more than 2 goals.  The Flyers have scored 4 or more goals in regulation time of all but 1 of their victories during this 8-game winning streak.  Per our computer math model, you can expect a home blowout in this one!  Laying the 1.5 goals with Philadelphia is the value play here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Mississippi State -6 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET

We think we’re getting great value here with Mississippi State at home.  These two met less than a month ago on February 11th and the Bulldogs were actually favored on the road in that game by 1 point.  Now we’re laying only 5 points with them at home when it could easily be 7 or 8 based on the line @ Ole Miss.  For comparison’s sake, our SEC power ratings have Mississippi State and Auburn rated almost dead even and Ole Miss opened +9 @ Auburn less than 2 weeks ago.  Another comparison would be MSU’s most recent home game in which they were favored by 5 vs Alabama (same spread as this game).  We have Bama rated a full 40 spots ahead of Ole Miss in our national power ratings.  The Bulldogs are playing their home finale here and should be plenty motivated after getting blasted @ Ole Miss in February 83-58.  In that game MSU was leading 31-18 with just 4:00 minutes remaining in the first half and completely collapsed getting outscored 63-27 the rest of the way!  The Rebels averaged 1.22 points per possession in that game and to give you an idea of how out of line that is for them, they average under 1.00 PPP in conference play this year.  We don’t expect the Rebs to get anywhere near those numbers in this game as they average just 61 PPG on the road this year while shooting 37%.  They are 1-7 SU in SEC road games and have topped 1.00 PPP just once.  MSU is 7-1 SU at home in SEC play and that loss came way back on January 4th, their first conference game of the season.  Their average margin of victory in this 7 SEC home wins is +14 points.  Their only home win that came by less than tonight’s spread was vs South Carolina where the Bulldogs led by 11 with just over 1:00 minute remaining but won by just 3.  Normally they are tough to come back on late if they have a lead because they shoot 79% from the FT line in conference play.  MSU sits at 10-7 in the SEC and win in their final home game could move them into a tie for 2nd place depending on what teams above them do.  This is a very manageable line for Mississippi State and we expect them to win this one by double digits.

ASA play on: LA Lakers +1 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET

We put our head before our hearts when it comes to betting which is the case tonight. We love Giannis and the Bucks and really don’t care for LeBron and the Lakers but the bet here is on Los Angeles. The Lakers have NOT been a home underdog this season and recently they were favored by -6.5-points over Houston and -7.5-points against Boston. Overall as a Dog this season the Lakers are 7-1 SU with an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. LBJ will take this game personally as the race for the league MVP is between, he and Giannis. Giannis should clearly be the MVP with the numbers he’s put up this season with a 31.8PER compared to LBJ’s 25.7PER and he doesn’t have a top 5 player in the league on his roster as LeBron does. Anyway, back to the bet tonight. The Lakers have won 9 of their last ten games and have a recipe to beat the Bucks after watching the Miami Heat do it recently. L.A. can clog the lane with big bodes like McGee, Howard, Davis and LeBron and keep Giannis from getting to the rim where he is most dangerous. The Bucks have been incredible all season long on the road with a a25-6 SU record and a +10PPG differential but this will be a tough place to win given the circumstances. When these two teams met in Milwaukee earlier this season the Bucks won by 7-points but attempted 9 more (home) free throws and shot 41% from beyond the arc which was drastically higher than their 35.8% season average. Even though the Lakers have a big game on deck with the Clippers there is no way they look past the best team in the NBA the Bucks at home. Statement night!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Davidson -4 over VCU, Friday at 9 PM ET

After their 73-62 win @ home vs Davidson back on February 7th, VCU was sitting at 7-3 in the A10 and looking solid.  Since that win the Rams have plummeted losing 6 of their last 7 games with their only win during that stretch coming at home vs George Washington.  VCU is extremely banged up right now with Marcus Evans (10 PPG, 3 APG) has missed 4 of the last 5 games due to a knee injury and De’Riante Jenkins (10 PPG, 4 RPG) has missed the last 2 games dealing with a personal matter.  There is a good chance both sit again tonight.  Davidson is back at home, where they are 10-1 on the season, after their toughest road trip of the season.  They traveled to Dayton & Richmond, the 2 best teams in the A10, last week and over the weekend and lost both games. The Wildcats are one of the top shooting teams in the nation (#1 three point shooting team in the A10) and at home they are deadly averaging 80 PPG and hitting over 40% of their triples.  In their first meeting @ VCU this sharp shooting Davidson team only hit 5 of 19 from beyond the arc (26%) which we feel was an aberration as VCU is not a great team defending the 3 point shot (8th in the conference).  Also in that first meeting, the Rams were 19 of 19 from the FT line which was also an outlier as they only hit 67% of their FT’s in conference play (11th in the league).  The final stat we’ll bring up from the first meeting was Davidson’s turnover rate.  The coughed the ball up a ridiculous 30% of their possessions in that game which is unlike the Cats who average just 16% TO rate on the year ranking them 42nd nationally.  We realize that VCU loves to create turnovers but that was still a very high rated for a normally solid ball handling team.  Also seeing the Rams pressure once already this season will have Davidson ready for the rematch.  Lastly, the 2 players that are most likely out for the Rams (Evans & Jenkins) combined for 34 points in the first win.  This is Davidson’s final home game of the season and we mentioned their 10-1 record here this year, they have always been a tough out Belk Arena winning 35 of their last 39 here.  VCU is one of the worst spread teams in the nation with a 10-20 ATS record and as an underdog this year they tend to beat the teams they are supposed to beat and lose to the teams they are supposed to lose to.  In fact, the Rams have been an underdog 7 times this year and they are 0-7 ATS in those games.  Going back 3 years VCU is just 8-20 ATS as a dog.  With their injuries and Davidson having revenge, we like the Cats to play well and cover this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Memphis -2 over Wichita State, Thursday at 9 PM ET on ESPN

Big game for both teams has Wichita sits in the tourney as a low seed by most while Memphis is currently out.  However, the Tigers have a chance to make a move at home here playing Wichita tonight and Houston over the weekend.  Winning both would probably get them in.  Just a huge home stand for Memphis.  Wichita is coming off a big win @ SMU but how that went down is key here.  The Shockers trailed 50-26 with 13:00 minutes remaining in the game and WON the game 66-62 thus outscoring the Mustangs 40-12 from that point on.  Obviously A LOT had to go WSU’s way for them to make that comeback and they expended plenty of physical and mental energy in doing so.  In fact, between the 13:00 minute mark and 9:00 minute mark – so 4 minutes of game time – the Shockers made 5 three pointers & a layup while holding SMU scoreless to cut the 24 point lead to 7 in a hurry.  That simply almost never happens.  Especially from a team that isn’t a good shooting team to being with which Wichita is not.  Now going on the road again after that effort we think they’re in trouble tonight.  Memphis has won 3 of their last 4 games (including a win here over Houston, the best team in the AAC) to move back close to the NCAA bubble.  The Tigers are great defensively (5th nationally in defensive efficiency and 1st nationally in defensive eFG%) and we expect them to really slow down this Wichita team that went crazy in the 2nd half on Sunday.  As we mentioned, the Shockers are not a good shooting team ranking dead last in the AAC in eFG% and 8th in 3-point %.  They made 14 three pointers on Sunday in their comeback win which is an absolute outlier.  To put that in perfective, in their previous 15 conference games Wichita averaged 7 three pointers made per game and only topped 10 one other time.  Now, on the road again where they shoot 28% from 3, they are facing a Memphis defense that ranks 5th nationally at defending the arc.  Wichita has struggled on the road vs the top tier teams in the AAC losing @ Houston, @ Cincy, and @ Tulsa and we think they have problems here, especially offensively where they average just 64 PPG on the road.  The Shockers got the home win 76-67 earlier this year but Memphis minus this small number is the play this time around.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -6 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET

We are now in the final week of the regular season and motivation becomes extremely important when handicapping games.  In next week’s conference tournaments everyone should be properly motivated as the dangling carrot which is the NCAA tourney is then open to everyone.  Win your conference tourney and you’re in.  That’s not the case this week.  In this game we feel we have a prime spot to go against a team that should be flat (Kansas State) while backing a team that should be motivated (Oklahoma State).  KSU gave a huge home effort on Saturday facing archrival Kansas but came up just short 62-58.  It was a revenge game for the Wildcats after their earlier meeting with the Jayhawks in Lawrence ended in a blowout and a brawl as time expired.  Watching this KSU team on Saturday, we could tell they put everything they had into that game.  We can’t imagine them playing well on the road in this game after that effort.  With the loss the Cats are 2-14 in the Big 12 and guaranteed a last place finish sitting 3 games behind the next worst team with 2 left to play.  They have absolutely nothing to play for here.  They have now lost 9 consecutive games and they are 0-9 SU on the road in conference play.  They do have one final home game this weekend vs Iowa State and if there is a game they will play with some passion, that will be it, not this game.  Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is trending upward.  The Cowboys began the conference season with 8 straight losses but have since gone 5-3 over their last 8 games with their 3 losses coming vs Kansas, Baylor, and West Virginia all on the road (3 highest rated teams in the Big 12).  This is their home finale so OSU has plenty to play for with 4 seniors in their 7 man main rotation.  They are coming off a 12 point home win vs Iowa State so OSU is playing their 2nd consecutive home game.  Their last 3 home games they beat ISU by 12, Oklahoma by 17 (battling for a tourney bid), and Texas Tech by 3 (in 3rd place in the Big 12).  OSU(+2.5) beat Kansas State on the road a few weeks ago 64-59 and we see no reason, based on this situation, they don’t win big here.

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:30PM ET

The Brooklyn Nets are off a monumental comeback win over the Celtics last night and in for a letdown here. Boston went into the 4th quarter last night with a 17-point lead over Brooklyn before Caris LeVert decided to put the rest of the Nets on his back and carry them to the win. LeVert scored 37 of his 51 total points in the 4th quarter but you can bet he won’t produce those numbers here tonight (averages 17.3PPG on the year). The Nets have played 4 road game including last nights OT affair in Boston. On the season the Nets are just 2-6 SU on the second night of a back to back and lost their most recent home game to the Magic as a -3.5-point favorite. Memphis is fighting for the 8th spot in the West and took a hit when they lost 5 games in a row in late February but have won two straight to regain their confidence. The Grizzlies blew the Lakers out 105-88 then crushed the Hawks in Atlanta 127-88. Their defense has clearly been outstanding in their last two games allowing just 88-points in each. The Nets have a negative differential of minus -4.6PPG their last five contests while the Grizz are minus -.4PPG. As a favorite less than -4.5 points the Nets are 9-13 ATS this season while the Grizzlies in the same price range as a dog is 9-4 ATS. The underdog has covered 5 of the last six meetings and we like Memphis to win this one outright.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

This one sets up perfectly for Georgia State to get a home win on Senior Night.  The Panthers are coming in off 3 straight losses giving us some value here.  Two of those losses were on the road and were expected as they were underdogs @ Texas State (#1 power rated team in the Sun Belt) and @ UT Arlington.  Their 3rd loss was at home last Friday when arch rival Georgia Southern +5.5 took the Panthers down at home.  We were on Southern in that game and felt it was a great spot for them to pull the upset and they did.  This is a totally different situation with Ga State for tonight’s game.  They are still 11-8 in Sun Belt action and battling for conference tourney seeding.  They can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on their outcome along with the results of other games in conference play.  One thing we know for sure, Little Rock has clinched the Sun Belt regular season crown and will be the #1 seed.  They beat Louisiana at home on Saturday to assure that #11 seed.  Tonight they have nothing to play for.  The Trojans overachieved this season to get to this spot with a very young team (4 underclassmen in starting line up) as they were picked to finish near the bottom of the Sun Belt by most experts.  This is a program that is not used to being in this spot as they were 10-21 last season and 17-46 over the last 2 seasons.  Give them credit for getting to this point but we absolutely think they have a letdown here.  Georgia State, on the other hand, is a program that is used to winning as they finished a top the Sun Belt each of the previous 2 seasons and they finished with 24 or more wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons.  They have a conference record of 89-42 since joining the Sun Belt in 2013.  Getting them off 3 losses including their most recent one at home, where they have still won 25 of their last 28 games, is ideal in our opinion.  Both teams are solid offensively but GSU has the definite edge on defense.  They rank higher overall and in conference play in defensive efficiency, defensive eFG%, and defensive 3-point%.  The Panthers average 83 PPG at home this year while UALR averages just 68 PPG on the road and they have lost 2 of their last 3 road games.  Last year in this match up GSU was a 9 point favorite at home and won by 13 in their home finale.  This year they are laying only 3 points and the situation heavily favors the Panthers.  We like Georgia State here.

ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers +10 over Utah Jazz, 7PM ET

The Cavaliers are a better team with their recent coaching change and the addition of Andre Drummond. Cleveland had won two straight games against a pair of the better teams in the East when they beat Miami in OT and then Philly by 14-points. They then followed up with a loss in New Orleans and home against the Pacers. The up-and-down Jazz got a home win over Washington but that was preceded by four straight losses, all of which were at home. Utah is just 4-4 SU their last eight road games and 16-13 SU away from home on the season with a +1.1-point differential. Even though the Cavs are a dismal 9-23 SU at home their negative differential of -6.9PPG is good enough to get a cover in this contest. Let’s face it, a big reason for the Cavs horrible statistics was injuries and a college coach trying to adjust to the NBA. Now with a solid front court of Drummond and Love along with a dynamic guard in Sexton this team should trend up the last part of this season. This is the largest road spread of the season for the Jazz and it’s time to play against them.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville -12 over Virginia Tech, Sunday at 6 PM ET

This is a great spot to play on Louisville and also a perfect set up to fade Va Tech.  The Cards are off an 82-67 loss @ FSU on Monday in a game they led by 8 at half.  The Cardinals however collapsed in the second half getting outscored 50-27 including a 15-0 run by the Noles.  The 50 points allowed in the 2nd half was the most Louisville has allowed in a half the entire season and you can bet this team, who is one of the better defensive teams in the nation, will play with a purpose on that end of the court on Sunday in their home finale vs Virginia Tech.  Let’s remember that U of L ranks 37th nationally in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.92 PPP and 18th in eFG% defense.  The Cards were in a similar situation just a few weeks ago getting embarrassed by 15 points @ Clemson and then coming home and laying one on Syracuse 90-66.  A much better Syracuse team than the Va Tech team they are playing today.  The Hokies are coming off a huge rivalry game at home vs Virginia.  It was a game they were anticipating after getting waxed by 26 points @ UVA earlier this year.  Their game on Wednesday went to the wire with the Cavs getting the road win 56-53.  VT was down 26-11 at half in that game (yes you read that correctly) and made a valiant comeback actually taking the lead with 3:00 minutes remaining before losing by 3.  That game took a lot out of Tech both physically and mentally and now they go on the road to play one of the best team’s in the nation off a loss.  They are just 2-5 in ACC road games with 4 of those 5 losses coming by double digits.  Their most recent road game was @ Duke and Va Tech lost that game by 24 as 15.5 point underdogs.  We actually think we’re getting value with Louisville laying only 12 in this situation.  They are every bit as good as Duke (Cards beat Duke on the road in their only meeting) yet laying 3.5 points less than the Devils did just a week ago.  The Hokies started the ACC season with a 5-3 record but have been heading downhill since losing 8 of their last 9.  They are a poor shooting team ranking 13th in the ACC in offensive efficiency and 252nd nationally making only 42% of their shots.  It gets even worst for them on the road where they make just 39% of their shot attempts and scoring only 61 PPG.  That’s going to be an issue vs a Louisville defense that will be motivated and an offense that has average 82 PPG their last 5 home games.  The top 4 teams in the ACC are Duke, Louisville, FSU, and Virginia and the Hokies are 0-5 in games vs those teams losing by an average score of 73-56 and that includes 3 home games vs UVA, FSU, and Duke.  In their only 2 road games vs those opponents they lost by 24 @ Duke and by 26 @ UVA.  Louisville might be without starting center Malik Williams here (foot injury) but they are one of the deeper teams in the nation and in their home finale we still expect them to win this one BIG.  Lay it with Louisville. 

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Orlando Magic, 8:30PM ET

We like the Spurs in this setting as they are coming off their annual rodeo road trip, then lost at home to Dallas. Now the Spurs catch a Magic team off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in just four nights. Orlando is one of the worst offensive teams in the league and have a 11-18 SU road record with a negative differential of minus -3PPG. San Antonio shoots it and defends better at home than league averages and based on similar opponents in recent home games the Spurs should be favored by 5.5-points here. Orlando struggles to score on the road with one of the worst offenses in the NBA. The Magic are 23rd in offensive efficiency, 25th in scoring and one of the worst shooting teams away from home. The Spurs are in desperation mode if they want to extend their 22 year playoff streak so a win today is borderline critical. Lay the points

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia +4 over Duke, Saturday at 6 PM ET

Don’t look now but last year’s National Champions are hitting their stride.  Back in mid January with UVA sitting at 4-4 in the ACC and 12-6 overall, there was talk that the defending champs might not even make the tourney this season.  That talk is now out the window with the Cavs winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Louisville in a game they led with 3:00 minutes remaining.  They are now 20-7 overall and 12-5 in the ACC.  Defensively they are fantastic as usual ranking #1 in the ACC in defensive efficiency, points allowed, defensive eFG%, 2-point %, and 3-point %.  They play at a very slow pace which we feel will frustrate this young Duke team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) that loves to play fast.  The Blue Devils are vastly overrated in our opinion.  They are 13-4 in a down ACC but they have not been very good on the road.   Duke is just 3-3 their last 6 road games including a 113-101 double OT loss on Tuesday @ Wake Forest who is 5-12 in conference play.  They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in ACC play.  Of the top 3 team in the league (besides themselves) they have faced 2 of them (Louisville & FSU) both at home beating the Seminoles by 5 and losing to Louisville by 6.  The other team in the top 4 is Virginia so this sets up to be Duke’s toughest road game of the season thus far.  The Devils have covered only 1 of their last 7 as a road favorite while UVA has been a dog just 8 times in the last 3 season going 6-2 ATS in those games.  Virginia has won 43 of their last 48 home games SU and we like them to win this one as well.  If they don’t we anticipate the game being very close so take the points. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Love this spot for the Braves in their home finale.  With 3 seniors in the starting line up this home game will be extra special.  On top of that, a win here moves the Braves into a tie for 2nd place in the MVC with Loyola, their opponent on Saturday.  Bradley is 15-1 this year at home with their only loss coming at the hands of Northern Iowa who sits in 1st place in the conference.  Going back further, this team has simply been fantastic here at Carver Arena winning 40 of their last 49 games here.  If you throw out their home loss to UNI, the Braves have won their other 7 conference home games by an average margin of +10.8 points.  They average 76 PPG at home while shooting 48%.  They are also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation hitting nearly 37% which ranks them 33rd out of 351 teams.  That should be a solid match for them at home vs a Loyola defense that ranks 318th nationally at defending the arc allowing 37%.  Over their last 10 games, the Ramblers have allowed 87 three pointers (nearly 9 per game) on 212 attempts for 41% which is obviously not good.  While Loyola is 12-5 in conference play, one game ahead of Bradley, they are just 3-5 SU on the road with their wins coming @ Evansville (0-17 in conference play), @ Illinois State (4-13 in MVC play), and @ Valpo (9-8 on conference games).  The Ramblers struggle offensively on the road averaging just 62 PPG which won’t do it here vs a team that thrives offensively at home as we discussed earlier.  When these two met on February 1st @ Loyola the Ramblers won 62-51 as 5.5 point favorites.  The Braves actually shot a higher percentage overall and from 3 point land, however Loyola won the game at the FT line where they attempted 30 FT’s to just 5 for Bradley.  It was shocking the game was as close as it was with that discrepancy at the stripe.  We don’t see that happening on Saturday and even if all else remains the same, Bradley will get the win.

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies -3 over Sacramento Kings, 8PM ET

The Grizzlies have lost 4 straight games, all of which were on the road and started with a loss in Sacramento. The Grizz last three losses were against three of the best teams in the West, Lakers, Clippers and Rockets, with the most recent being an embarrassing loss in Houston by 28. Again, these two teams met just a few days ago in Sacramento and the Grizzlies were favored by a point and now they’re laying just 3-points? Sacramento comes into this game off a loss last night in Oklahoma City so fatigue becomes a factor. The Grizzlies have played 7 of their last eight games on the road but it you look at recent home games they are 10-1 SU with several impressive wins over the likes of the Spurs, Blazers, Rockets and Nuggets. Those 10 home wins have come by an average of 10.2PPG. The Kings are 12-19 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of -2.3PPG which is slightly lower than tonight’s number. The home team has covered 8 of the last nine in this series, including both this year. The Grizzlies bounce back after a horrible showing in Houston.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern +5 over Georgia State, Friday at 7 PM ET

In their first meeting this season Georgia Southern held a 14-point lead with 12:00 minutes remaining and blew it with Georgia State winning 82-77 which was State’s largest lead of the game.  From that 12:00 minute mark on, the Eagles were only able to score a grand total of 12 points in that loss.  We feel these teams are now headed in opposite directions and we give Southern a great shot to win this game.  State has lost 4 of their last 7 games and two of their wins game vs LA Monroe (last place team) and Coastal Carolina who has lost 8 of their last 11.  Georgia Southern is 5-3 since their loss to Ga State and they have been successful on the road winning 3 of their last 4 and they are 5-4 SU overall on the road in Sun Belt play.  Both these teams are 11-7 in league play so this is a battle for seeding in the conference tourney.  The Panthers come in off back to back losses and might be without starting guard Phillips who is their best 3-point shooter hitting 43%.  He missed the last 2 games due to injury.  Speaking of shooting 3’s, Georgia State relies heavily on scoring from the arc with 35% of their points coming from deep so if Phillips is unable to play that will really hurt this team.  Tonight they face an Eagle defense that ranks #1 in the Sun Belt at defending the arc allowing 27% and Southern is also the most efficient defense in the league allowing just 0.96 points per possession.  This rivalry has been a closely contested series with 8 of the last 11 being decided by 6 points or less.  This line opened Georgia State -5.5 and despite 70% of the tickets coming in on the home team, the line has dropped to -5 at many places.  We agree with the move and expect this game to be very close whoever wins.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -4 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 9 PM ET

As you already know, we went against this NDSU team last week for a big play in what we thought was a great spot to fade them.  You know the details of that one so we won’t get into that.  However, after beating South Dakota last week, they went on the road to play one of the lower tier teams in the Summit League, North Dakota, and lost.  Now we feel coming off that loss, playing at home with the conference title on the line, this is a very good spot to jump on North Dakota State.  The Bison sit one spot below tonight’s opponent South Dakota State who is in first place.  If the Bison can win here and then beat Omaha at home on Saturday they will tie for first place in the Summit.  NDSU is a perfect 6-0 at home this year in conference play and not only do they have revenge set up for a tight game they lost @ South Dakota State earlier this year, they also remember what happened here last year.  In their game here last year NDSU blew a 17 point second half lead and South Dakota State hit a half court shot at the buzzer to win 78-77.  In their first match up this year @ SDSU, the Jackrabbits shot 56% from the field and they were +10 FT’s made and the game still went to the wire with them winning 78-73.  Now we get the Bison at home where they average 81 PPG and shoot 49% in a game they’ve been waiting for.  On top of that, Jackrabbits leading scorer Douglas Wilson (19 PPG) was lifted from their game over the weekend due to a foot injury.  He had problems with that same foot entering the game and was limping late when his foot was landed on and he had to come out of the game.  His status is up in the air for Thursday.  South Dakota State has already clinched at least a share of the league title and their 2 conference losses both came on the road @ South Dakota and @ Omaha, 2 of the top 5 teams in the league.  Now they face their toughest opponent on the road in a less than ideal spot.  If NDSU can get a lead and they need to hold it or extend it late, we get the best FT shooting team in the conference as they hit 81% of their freebies in league play.  Great spot here for North Dakota State and we’ll take them to win and cover.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -6 over Wisconsin, Thursday at 7 PM ET

The Wolverines are playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 right now and possibly as well as anyone in the country.  They have won 7 of their last 8 games and in the Ken Pom power rankings Michigan has risen from #30 at the beginning of February all the way to #9 going into tonight’s game.  That’s the largest upward move of any team in the nation over the last month.  Much of that improvement has been the return of leading scorer Isaiah Livers (14 PPG).  The Wolverines are 12-3 when Livers has been healthy and played at least half the game and they are 6-6 without him.  Livers missed 9 games since December 29th due to injury but his last 4 games back Michigan is 4-0 winning each by at least 8 points.  Livers is averaging 15.5 PPG during that stretch and for the season he is hitting nearly 45% of his 3-point attempts.  During their 5 game winning streak Michigan has knocked off Michigan State by 9, won @ Rutgers by 8 giving the Knights their first home loss of the season, beat a resurgent Indiana team by 24 at home, and topped Purdue on the road by 8 in a game the Boilers had to have.  Impressive run to say the least.  During that 5 game run Michigan is outscoring opponents 75-60 and their defense has been lock down holding opponents to 37% shooting and just 23% from deep.  Wisconsin is also on a nice 4 game winning streak but the 2 runs are not comparable.  The Badgers have played 3 of their last 4 games at home and their lone road game during this stretch was @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10.  Prior to their road win @ Nebraska, the Badgers had lost 4 straight road games @ Purdue, @ Michigan State, @ Iowa, and @ Minnesota with all but one of those losses (lost by 6 @ Iowa) coming by at least 12 points.  The last 2 games, both at home, the Badgers were leading fairly tight games ate vs Purdue and Rutgers and converted their FT’s with the opposition fouling late.  UW was +16 and +11 FT’s made in those games which they won by 4 and 8 points.  We don’t see that happening here as we don’t see them leading late and they are facing a Michigan team that doesn’t foul very much.  Wisconsin’s offense relies too heavily on the 3 for us to trust them on the road vs solid competition.  40% of their points in conference play come from deep which is #1 in the league.  The problem is they only shoot 31% from the arc on the road and they are facing a Michigan defense that ranks 3rd in the conference at defending the arc and has really stepped up their defense as of late as we mentioned.  Minus their road win @ Nebraska (who is the worst defensive team in the conference) the Badgers have averaged just 55 PPG their previous 4 road games.  Facing a Michigan offense that has topped 70 in 4 of their last 5 games including vs MSU (13th ranked in defensive efficiency) and Purdue (22nd ranked in defensive efficiency).  That all means Wisconsin could be in trouble here.  We like the Wolverines to win this game by double digits. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Stanford -7.5 over Utah, Thursday at 10 PM ET

Utah has one of the youngest teams in the nation with 3 sophomores and 2 freshmen in the starting line up.  They also bring 2 more freshmen off the bench as part of their top 8.  Because of that, they have really been poor on the road this year many playing in venues they’ve never seen before.  The Utes are 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) on the road in Pac 12 play with their losses coming by margins of 4, 16, 16, 18, 19, 19, and 39 points.  As you can see only one competitive game in the entire bunch.  They are averaging just 61 PPG on the road and have been held under 60 points in 5 road games this season.  The Utes have made only 38% of their shots away from home and just 28% from 3 point land.  That’s going to be a massive problem tonight as they face a Stanford defense that ranks 5th nationally in defensive efficiency holding opponents to only 60 PPG at home.  This is also a game the Cardinal have been waiting for after leading @ Utah with 12 seconds remaining in regulation but losing in double OT.  Stanford averaged a putrid 0.77 points per possession in that game (their lowest of the season) and still had a shot at a road win.  The host is 7-1-1 ATS the last 8 in this series and it looks to us like Utah’s freshmen (4 in the top 8) are hitting a wall late in the season losing 3 of their last 4 games.  With their road struggles already in place we see Stanford winning this one by double digits. 

ASA 3* play on: San Antonio Spurs +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

The Spurs are finally home after their annual Rodeo Road Trip which saw them play eight straight road games. Not only were they on the road the entire month of February but it included a schedule of the Western Conferences best teams (Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Thunder, Jazz and Thunder again). With three days rest they are prepared to take on the instate rival Dallas Mavericks. The Spurs won 2 of their three final games against the Thunder and Jazz but were then blown out in their most recent game against the Thunder. We like the situation as good teams bounce back off horrible showings. Despite an overall losing record the Spurs average loss margin is just -1.2PPG this season overall and +1.2PPG at home. In their own building the Spurs are about league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, which should be worse given their overall record. Dallas though does have the 2nd best point differential on the NBA at plus +6.9PPG and are 19-9 SU away from home but those numbers are somewhat misleading based on scheduling. In their last eleven road games the Mavs are 7-4 SU BUT only two of those wins were against winning teams. They also have road losses to the Hawks, Wizards and Suns in that stretch. The Mavs with Luca were recently favored by 4-points at Orlando who isn’t as good as this Spurs team, even without Aldridge tonight. Since 2017 San Antonio is 17-8 SU (68%) at home as an underdog with an average margin of victory of +1.3PPG and covering by nearly 5PPG. The Dog has covered 8 of the last ten meetings. Grab the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma +2.5 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

This is simply a must win for Oklahoma’s NCAA tourney hopes.  Right now the Sooners are sitting barely in the tourney or barely out of the tourney depending on which bracket expert you follow.  After losing 3 straight games, they can’t afford a loss here with 2 of their last 3 games on the road.  This game isn’t a true home game for them as it will be played in Oklahoma City although the crowd will be all OU.  They’ve also played at this venue once already this season beating Mississippi State in late January.  Oklahoma is coming off 3 straight losses and because of that we’re getting some value in this game.  Let’s keep in mind their 3 losses weren’t necessarily unexpected as they were beaten @ Kansas, lost at home to Baylor, and then lost over the weekend @ Oklahoma State.  The first two setbacks were absolutely expected as they were facing to 2 best teams in the Big 12 and 2 top 5 nationally ranked teams.  We weren’t surprised they lost @ arch rival OSU over the weekend as those first 2 games took a lot out of this team while the Cowboys were playing their Super Bowl, so to speak, at home.  We expect a huge performance after getting embarrassed on Saturday.  The Sooners have lost only 2 home games (including games at OKC) this year and those were vs Kansas & Baylor.  Now they face a young Texas Tech team (3 freshman in their top 7 players) that is coming off a 30-point blowout win @ Iowa State.  The Red Raiders come in fat and happy so to speak while OU Is backed into a corner.  These two met just on February 4th and Tech was an 8.5 point favorite at home.  That tells us this line should be pick-em or OU favored by 1 so the value is there.  In that first meeting Texas Tech won 69-61 and while the Sooners attempted 10 more FG’s, the Raiders shot lights out hitting over 50% for the game and from beyond the arc.  Despite the red hot shooting from Tech, OU led at half and trailed by just 3 with 1:00 minute remaining in the game.  Now they get the Red Raiders away from home where they are just 3-4 SU in conference play.  We like OU to get this much needed win tonight.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Nashville Predators Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa Senators, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

This is a fantastic situation.  Ottawa is playing the 2nd night of a back to back.  The Senators were involved in the only game on the NHL schedule last night as they lost at Columbus in OT.  It was another deflating loss for Ottawa and also their 20th defeat in their last 25 games!  While the Senators are wrapping up a miserable season, the Predators are in the middle of a sprint to the finish over the last six weeks of the regular season as they are very much alive in the playoff race.  Nashville has a big scheduling edge here as they were off both Sunday and Monday.  The Predators also have revenge here as they lost at Ottawa 5-4 in December.  With Marcus Hogberg having gotten the call against the Blue Jackets last night, Craig Anderson is expected to get the start in goal for the Senators tonight.  Anderson is 4-8-1 with a 3.57 GAA in his 15 road games (14 starts) this season.  The Predators will have a huge edge in goal whether they use Pekka Rinne or Juuse Saros.  Both have been great recently and that is why Nashville has allowed only 2.5 goals per game in its last 11 games.  The Predators have averaged nearly 4 goals per game in their last 8 victories.  The Senators have averaged about 1.5 goals per game in their last 16 losses.  Based on the huge edges here it comes as no surprise that the Predators are a -330 favorite on the money line.  Where the value lies in a situation like this is the puck line and with Ottawa likely to be held to just 1 or 2 goals and the Predators likely to score 4 or more goals (see recent averages noted above), we have no hesitation in investing in the puck line (-1.5 goals) in this one.  Per our computer math model, this one is forecast to be a revenging home blowout Tuesday.  Laying the 1.5 goals with Nashville is the value play here.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -8 over Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET

We like the situation as the Jazz are off a pair of bad losses to other Western Conference teams (Spurs, Rockets) following the break which will have them focused here. Phoenix has been a team we played on quite a bit early in the season and were rewarded with profits, but they’ve been fading with a 4-11 ATS record their last fifteen games. The Suns are 18th in offensive and defensive efficiency ratings on the road and an average loss margin of minus -3.4PPG (17th). Utah will lock down the Suns defensively with the 4th best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA when they are at home allowing just 1.052 points per possession. Utah is 20-7 SU in Salt Lake City with an average winning margin of +6.2PPG. Granted, it was early in the season, but the Jazz were favored by -4.5-points in Phoenix this season and now laying a few more points at home? Bet the value and take Utah minus the points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville +3 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET

These two met in early January and FSU pulled the road upset @ Louisville 78-65.  The Seminoles shot lights out in that game hitting over 50% of their shots overall and 60% of their attempts inside the arc in route to a 1.20 points per possession performance.  That was against a Louisville defense that allowed just 0.92 PPP on the season which ranks them 29th nationally.  Since that outing the Cards have played 14 games holding 11 of those teams to 1.00 PPP or less.  We expect the U of L defense to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight in this revenge match up.  Offensively a very good Louisville team (11th nationally in offensive efficiency) shot only 39% in that first meeting.  We expect the Cards to be much better on both ends tonight.  FSU is very good but they’ve had a number of games that have gone to the wire with 8 of their last 11 games decided by 6 points or less.  The Noles are also very good on defense however if they have one weakness, it’s defending the arc where they rank 9th in the ACC allowing opponents to shoot 33% in league play.  That could be a problem for them tonight facing a Louisville offense that ranks 7th nationally in 3-point percentage and they are hitting almost 41% from deep in ACC play (1st in the conference).  FSU also thrives on rebounding often dominating teams on the boards.  That won’t happen tonight vs a Louisville team that is a very good rebounding team and actually won the battle of the glass in the first meeting 37 to 32 including 19 offensive rebounds (47% of their misses).  The Cardinals had back to back losses earlier this month as they hit their bottom so to speak.  They have since regained their mojo with two blowout wins over Syracuse (by 24) and UNC (by 17).  They are 6-2 in ACC road games this year including a win @ Duke.  This is just the 3rd time Louisville has been an underdog this season with the other 2 coming @ Duke (Cards won the game) and @ Kentucky (Cards lost in OT).  The road team has won 3 of last 4 with only home team win during that run coming in OT and we’ll call for Louisville to pick up a road win tonight. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ohio State -2.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

It’s not often we find a top 10 team as an underdog and when we do we usually like to go against them.  While we expect Maryland (ranked #7 in the polls) to be a popular underdog on Sunday (65% of the tickets currently on the Terps) there is a reason the oddsmakers set them as such.  Despite their conference records (OSU is 7-8 and Maryland is 12-3) the Bucks are favored and we agree.  Our power ratings have these teams only a few spots apart nationally and our spread on this game is OSU -3.5.  The Terps come in overvalued because they are on a 9 game winning streak and they have a monumental home game on deck with Michigan State.  Maryland topped Sparty on the road during this streak but they were down 7 with just 3:00 minutes remaining and outscored MSU 14-0 to end the game.  A lucky might be an understatement.  MSU was favored by 7 in that game and now we’re getting a very similar OSU team (rated only a few spots behind MSU in our power rankings) laying only 2.5.  Also during their 9 game run Maryland has played nearly half of those games (4) vs the three lowest rated teams in the Big 10 – Northwestern (twice), Nebraska, and Indiana and they needed to hold on for dear life vs the Huskers (won by 2) and Indiana (won by 1).  The Terps are just 4-4 SU on the road this year and this is a dangerous spot for them.  OSU is coming off a loss @ Iowa and this is a revenge spot.  When these two played @ Maryland the Terps were favored by just 2.5 points and beat the Bucks by 12.  OSU had 21 more FG attempts in that game but shot just 31% from the field and 19% from 3.  They also attempted only 10 FT’s while Maryland took 24 from the charity stripe.  Now at home, we look for OSU, one of the best shooting teams in the nation (25th in shooting percentage and 18th in 3 point percentage) to shoot much better.  At home they average 76 PPG, shoot 49% and hit over 41% of their 3’s.  Maryland has had a number of breaks during their winning streak and we think it ends today.  The favorite in this series has covered 8 of the last 10 and we expect the Buckeyes to play very well at home.  Ohio State is the play.      

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ole Miss -2.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET

Ole Miss began the month of January with a 6 game losing streak and things looked dim for the Rebels.  However, since late January, they turned the corner and we love how this team has been playing, especially at home.  They are coming off back to back road losses but they played wire to wire in both of those games.  They lost @ Kentucky by 5 and followed that up with a 3 point loss @ Mizzou.  A close look at those results reveals that Ole Miss led Kentucky with 1:30 to go in the game before losing and in their follow up, potential letdown spot @ Missouri, they were tied with the Tigers with under 1:00 minute remaining.  Prior to those 2 solid losses, if there is such a thing, the Rebels blasted South Carolina by 14, Florida by 17, and Mississippi State by 25 all at home.  In those 3 home wins Ole Miss shot 48% averaging 78 PPG while allowing their opponents to shoot only 37% and just 59 PPG.  All 3 of those opponents sit at 8-5 or better in the SEC and today they face an Alabama team that sits at 6-7 in conference play.  Bama has lost 5 of their last 7 games with 1 of those 2 wins coming in OT vs Georgia who is 3-10 in SEC play.  They rely very heavily on the 3 point shot (12th nationally with 40% of their points coming from beyond the arc) which we think can be dangerous on the road.  Away from home they shoot just 33% from 3 and they just happen to be facing a Mississippi  defense than ranks 6th nationally in 3-point defense allowing only 28%.  If the Crimson Tide 3’s aren’t falling this team is in trouble and we think that will be the case here.  Since 1997, these two SEC rivals have met @ Ole Miss 19 times with the Rebels winning 16 of those games.  We like Ole Miss to win and cover here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Arizona State +2.5 over Oregon, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET

ASU who was basically dead in mid January with no shot at the NCAA, has now won 7 of their last 8 to climb on to the NCAA bubble.  Their lone loss during that 8 game run was a 2-point road setback @ Washington State.  They are playing easily their best basketball of the season and they have big momentum coming off their first 2 game Pac 12 road sweep (Stanford & Cal) in 10 years.  They are let by one of the best unknown players in the country in Remy Martin.  The junior guard is averaging 20 PPG and has scored at least that in 9 of his 12 Pac 12 games.  He will be facing off against another top notch talent in Oregon’s PG Payton Pritchard.  Both scored 29 points in their first meeting which was a 78-69 Oregon win in early January.  The Devils are a much different at this point in the season as that loss first loss to Oregon followed up by a loss to Colorado had ASU at 1-3 in conference play.  They are now 9-4.  Their lone home loss in Pac 12 play was that 7-point setback vs Colorado who rates as the best team in the Pac 12.  Since that loss they’ve beaten Arizona, UCLA, USC, and Utah here in Tempe.  The Ducks have not been a very good road team in conference play with a 2-4 record.  Their only road wins in league play came @ Washington in OT and @ California, the worst team in the league, by 5.  So even their wins have come down to the wire.  The Ducks average just 65 PPG on the road and they are facing a team that can play some defense with ASU ranking 32nd nationally in defensive efficiency.  The Devils are 7-1-1 ATS their last 9 as a home underdog and they beat Oregon here last year by 14.  Oregon can’t be trusted on the road and with the Sun Devils playing well and playing for their NCAA lives, we like them to win outright.    

ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET

We realize we are laying a bit of a premium price here with the Heat but the situation warrants a bet on Miami. With the All-Star break the Heat were afforded extra time to work in the new additions prior to the trade deadline and build chemistry moving forward. Miami brought in veterans Iquodala and Crowder to compete with the Raptors and Bucks in the East. The Heat will be better because of the deals and we expect it to show tonight in Atlanta. Miami is just 1-4 SU their last five games but all were on the road against Western Conference foes including the Clippers, Jazz and Blazers. Atlanta was also active prior to the trade deadline and acquired center Capela from the Rockets who is inactive tonight. The Hawks are perceived as an offensive team, but the reality is, they rank 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.059 points per possession and the defense isn’t any better, ranking 28th in DEFF. In comparison the Heat rank 14th in defensive efficiency ratings and 7th in OEFF. The Heat have struggled on the road this season, but the Hawks have the 4th worst home record the past two seasons with a 26-41 SU record and an average loss margin of -3.8PPG. Miami has beaten this Hawks team three times this season by 15, 9 and 14 points already so coving this number shouldn’t be a problem tonight. Lay the points.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Washington Capitals Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Montreal Canadiens, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

The Capitals are angry off back to back losses.  Only once this season have the Caps lost when they entered a game off consecutive losses.  Since that lone 3-game losing streak this season, Washington is a perfect 5-0 when they enter a game off back to back losses.  Of course it is not surprising to find out then that the Capitals are a very large money line favorite here.  Where value lies is with the puck line.  By laying the 1.5 goals with the Caps we get plus money on the puck line in the +135 range.  Per our computer math model, this win will come by a margin of 2 or more goals.  The slumping Canadiens are off a loss at Detroit!  The Red Wings are the worst team in the league and the Habs let a 2-goal lead slip away in that one!  Montreal has lost 16 of their past 25 games and that includes 5 straight defeats entering this match-up at DC.  The Canadiens have allowed 4 goals per game in their last 10 defeats.  The Capitals have scored an average of 4.4 goals per game in their last 10 victories.  Look for the Caps to get to 4 or 5 goals here while Montreal - averaging just 2 goals per game in their last 7 games - continues to struggle to score goals. The final kicker is that the Capitals did lose at home to the Canadiens earlier this season.  They then got some revenge with a 4-2 win at Montreal in the next meeting but they still want payback for a rare home ice loss handed to them by the Habs here way back in November.  This one is forecast to be a home blowout Thursday.  Laying the 1.5 goals with Washington is the value play here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON St Louis Blues Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over New Jersey Devils, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

The Devils are expected to start Louis Domingue here.  When Mackenzie Blackwood has started between the pipes New Jersey has been very competitive.  However, in Dominque's last 4 starts the Devils are 0-4 and he has allowed 14 goals in his last 3 starts!  St Louis allowed a late goal at Nashville Saturday and that was the deciding goal in a tough 2-1 loss.  The Blues need to snap their losing streak and this is the perfect opportunity to do it.  St Louis is facing a struggling goalie and they are on home ice and Jordan Binnington is expected to get the start in the crease for the Blues.  Binnington is 16-4-5 with a 2.29 GAA in his home starts this season.  Of course St Louis is a very price-heavy fave in this spot but we get around that by utilizing the puck line in this match-up.  The Blues must win by 2 or more goals but then there is no juice to lay in this match-up.  14 of the last 20 wins for St Louis have come by 2 or more goals.  20 of the Devils last 28 losses have come by 2 or more goals.  Laying the 1.5 goals with St Louis is the value play here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Eastern Michigan +3 over Kent State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

After starting the MAC season losing 7 straight games, EMU has now won 4 of 5 and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  Their only loss in their last 5 games was @ Akron by a final score of 59-58.  It was actually an impressive loss as Akron is the highest rated team in the MAC (70th) and the only team ranked inside the top 100.  They were even showing signs of breaking out during their 7 game conference losing streak with 5 of those losses coming by 6 points or less.  The oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough for EMU’s improvement as they have now covered 6 of their last 7 games with their only ATS loss during that stretch coming by a single point.  Kent is on the opposite track.  After starting the MAC schedule with a perfect 3-0 record, they are just 4-5 their last 9 games.  They are also 3-3 on the road in MAC play with two of those wins coming vs Western Michigan and Miami (OH), the two lowest rated teams in the conference.  The Golden Flashes have been favored on the road in MAC play 3 times this season and lost all 3 outright!  EMU has one of the better defenses in the nation (38th in defensive efficiency) and in conference play they are allowing just 0.95 PPG (2nd in the MAC).  While their shooting numbers for the season are not great, they seemed to have turn the corner on that end of the court with their current 5 game run.  During that span they are shooting 48% while allowing their opponents to hit only 37% of their shots.  This is a situation where an undervalued team, with an outstanding defense, playing at their peak is getting points at home.  Always a solid spot and we like Eastern Michigan to win this game at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -5 over Iowa, Sunday at 1 PM ET

The Gophs have had a full week off to get ready for this must win home game.  Minnesota sits squarely on the bubble (11th or 12th Big Ten team) and they cannot afford to lose this game.  They’ve been very good at home with their only Big 10 loss here at the Barn coming to Michigan State.  Since that home loss to Sparty the Gophers are just 1-2 SU (both losses on the road) but they are playing well.  In their last 3 they blasted Wisconsin here by 18 points and then took both Illinois and Penn State, two of the top teams in the conference, to the wire on the road.  They showed us a lot in their most recent game last week @ Penn State (currently in 1st place in the Big 10) when they got down big early in the 2nd half and battled back to almost get the win.  They cut the lead to 3 points with 4:30 remaining and lost by 6 vs a PSU team that is on an 8 game winning streak.  Iowa, like many Big 10 teams, has been great at home, but not good on the road.  They have a grand total of one conference road win and that was @ Northwestern.  They just lost by 12 @ Indiana on Thursday and now play on the road again just a few days later.  Their last 3 conference road games have resulted in losses by margins of 12, 36, and 10 points.  They also lost @ Nebraska this season, the lowest rated team in the league.  The Hawkeyes will also most likely be without one of their top players on Sunday as starting guard CJ Fredrick injured his ankle on Thursday @ Indiana and is doubtful here.  Iowa blasted Minnesota by 20 points in their meeting in Iowa City this season giving the Gophs some extra incentive here.  The home team has won 6 straight in this series with the favorite covering 5 in a row.  The road woes continue for Iowa as Minnesota gets a much needed win.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Baylor -5.5 over West Virginia, Saturday at 4 PM ET

This game sets up perfectly for Baylor in our opinion.  The Bears are coming off a win @ Texas which was their 21st consecutive win.  Their only loss of the season was by 3 points vs Washington way back on November 8th.  Many still seem to doubt this Baylor team and this is a statement game for them playing a WVU team that is ranked 12th in the country with an 18-6 record.  Getting a few extra days to prepare after having played on Monday is a bonus as well.  The Mountaineers, on the other hand, just played on Wednesday night.  Not only did they play on Wednesday but it was their biggest home game of the year as they took on Kansas.  The Mountaineers led for nearly the entire first half (6 point lead at half) and still held a lead with under 6:00 minutes remaining in the game before KU went on an 18-3 run over the final 9:00 minutes of the game to knock off WVU 58-49 (Baylor won by 12 @ Kansas in their only meeting this year).  It was a devastating home loss that took a lot out of this team physically and emotionally after leading for much of the game.  Now they have to go on the road a few days later to face one of the top teams in the nation that is 11-0 at home holding teams to just 56 PPG on 36% shooting.  This is a young West Virginia team (3 sophomore starters & a freshman starter) that has been bad on the road this year.  They have 6 losses this year and 5 of them have come on the road.  They are just 1-4 SU in Big 12 road games this season with their only win coming @ Oklahoma State, the lowest rated team in the conference.  Recently their head coach Bob Huggins had to get on his team about focus and effort because they are so young and inconsistent on the road.  They are already a poor shooting team (42% good for 238th nationally & 30% from deep good for 319th nationally) and it gets worse on the road where they make only 38% of their shots.  That’s a problem here as they are facing a Baylor team that is lock down defensively ranking 4th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th nationally in eFG% defense.  This is simply a bad match up for WVU as well.  They thrive on creating turnovers (1st in the Big 12) which leads to easy baskets which is key because they are not a good shooting team.  Baylor only turns the ball over 17% of the time in conference play which is 2nd least in the league.  The Bears also capitalize by getting to the FT line much more than their opponents as 22% of their points in conference play come from the charity stripe (most in the Big 12).  However, Baylor doesn’t foul much and when WVU gets to the line they only make 62% of them (331st nationally).  Lastly the Mountaineers usually dominate the boards which leads to easy points, however the Bears are a solid rebounding team (4th best offensive rebounding team in the nation) so they should hold their own on the boards.  Last year Baylor was laying 12 points in this home match up vs West Virginia and this line is much lower despite this being a much better team this season.  We understand the Mountaineers are better this year as well, however we feel they are overvalued due to their home dominance.  This young team has slipped up on the road often this year and now they play the best team they’ve seen this season (maybe Kansas although Baylor won by 12 @ KU as we mentioned).  Double digit win here for Baylor.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UCLA -8 over Washington State, Thursday at 11 PM ET

The Bruins have hit their stride and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  After losing 6 of 7 in a stretch that spanned from mid December to mid January, new head coach Mick Cronin, who came over from Cincinnati, got on his team about effort and defense.  They have since won 5 of their last 7 games holding 4 of their opponents under 60 points.  UCLA is coming off an impressive road win @ Arizona topping the Cats by 13 points.  They also beat Colorado in late January meaning they’ve topped the 2 highest rated teams in the Pac 12 over the last 2 weeks.  On Thursday they face a Washington State team that has been terrible on the road and is off an emotional win over their in-state rivals Washington.  That game was at home where the Cougs have been solid, however on the road they are 1-5 on the season with their only win coming @ Idaho who currently is ranked below 300.  Their 4 Pac 12 road losses have come by margins of 26, 22, 12, and 7 points with their closest road loss coming vs Cal who is the worst team in the conference.  They are averaging just 64 PPG on 39% shooting in their 6 road games.  UCLA should have a little extra motivation as well after blowing a 9 point halftime lead @ Wazzou losing in OT.  That was also in the midst of the stretch where the Bruins were playing their worst basketball of the season.  Washington State may also be without forward Aljaz Kunc (questionable with an injury) who has started 18 games this year and scored 12 points and had 4 rebounds in their first meeting with UCLA.  The host has covered 10 of the last 13 in this series and we like UCLA to win this one by double digits. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET

#644 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET

We had Texas State as the favorite in the Sun Belt entering the season with many key players back from a team that was 24-10 last season.  After a rough 0-3 start to the season, the Bobcats are now in a groove winning 8 of their last 11.  Over the weekend they lost a tough game at a surging App State team but we can put an asterisk by that one.  That’s because Texas State played that game without leading scoring Nijal Pearson (20 PPG) who is already the school’s all time leading scorer.  After beating Coastal Carolina 100-63 (yes that score is correct) on the road last Thursday, Pearson had to leave the team for their game @ App State due to the birth of his daughter.  He is back and ready to go tonight.  Even with Pearson gone, the Bobcats still nearly knocked off one of the hottest teams in the Sun Belt on the road.  Texas State led by 18 in the first half and App State took their first 2nd half lead with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the 60-57 Bobcat loss.  Tonight they face first place Arkansas Little Rock.  The Trojans are 12-2 in the Sun Belt, however they’ve played the easiest schedule in the conference thus far and there is a reason they are an underdog here.  In fact, despite their league records (8-6 for Texas State / 12-2 for UALR) we have Texas State rated as the best team in the conference (so does Ken Pomeroy).  The Bobcats are #1 in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency and they turn the ball over less than any other team.  They also create the most turnovers in the conference (22% defensive turnover rate) and that’s not a good thing for a UALR team that coughs the ball up 22% of the time which is 11th in the Sun Belt.  The Trojans have played only ONE road game since January 18th (4 home games during that stretch) and that was a 2 point win @ South Alabama, the 7th rated team in the conference.  These two met back in early January and the line was pick-em @ UALR.  Now Texas State is laying only 3 to 3.5 points at home.  In that game the Bobcats led by 15 in the first half and led for much of the 2nd half but came up short losing 72-68.   Little Rock shot 53% in that game (Texas State shot 40%) and made 4 more FT’s yet the game still went down to the wire.  Now we get who we feel is the best team in the conference, in a revenge spot, at home with a low number, and playing their best basketball of the season.  We like Texas State to roll in this game.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6 over Butler, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

These 2 are trending in opposite directions.  After starting the Big East season with a 3-0 record, the Butler Bulldogs have since lost 5 of their last 8 games with their wins coming by just 3, 4, and 5 points.  Four of their five least efficient performances this season have come since January 18th including two this month.  Xavier comes into this game having won 4 of their last 6 games with their losses coming to Marquette by 2 in OT and @ Creighton.  That 6 game run includes two road wins @ Seton Hall by 12 (#1 team in the Big East) and @ DePaul by 8.  Their defense has been lock down as of late holding their last 5 opponents to 38% shooting overall and just 28% from deep.  They have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 62 points or less.  Butler’s defense is headed south.  For the season they look great ranking 29th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP.  However, a closer look reveals in Big East play they have allowed 1.05 PPP which puts them in 9th place in that category in the 10 team conference.  For comparison’s sake Xavier ranks 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 4th in Big East play.  The Bulldogs have an impressive 18-6 overall record (5 of those losses have come in the last 8 games as we mentioned) but for the season they are only winning by an average of 7 PPG.  In conference play the are actually scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 70 PPG for a -2 per game point differential.  This has been a closely contested series with the last 7 meetings resulting in margins of 5, 1, 5, 7, 5, 9, and 5 points.  Butler is 0-4-1 ATS their last 5 as a favorite and we think Xavier has a solid shot at the outright win.  Take the points.

ASA play on: Houston Rockets -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 9:30PM ET

You couldn’t really ask for a better spot to play on Houston and fade Boston. The Rockets are off a loss (two in fact) and have historically done well when coming off a beat. Since 2016 there isn’t a better team in the NBA than Houston when coming off a loss as they are 71-34 SU or 68% winners. Boston on the other hand is coming off a solid road win in Oklahoma City. The Celtics are 4-1 SU their last five road contests but two of those wins were against 15-40 Atlanta and 23-31 Orlando. The Celtics have some great road statistics including an average margin of victory of +4.2PPG but if you dig deeper you find they are just 1-5 SU on the road against the top 5 teams in the West and East. The Rockets are 18-8 SU at home with the 8th best MOV at +7.6PPG. This is a great spot to play on the Rockets as a very small home favorite. Lay it!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia -4.5 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

UVA has had their ups and downs this season after winning the National Championship last year.  Tony Bennett is a fantastic coach and we knew the Cavs would start playing well at some point and then we could take advantage of them being undervalued due to their full season results.  We’ve reached that point tonight.  UVA has won 3 of their last 4 and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  In that 4 game stretch they beat FSU (3rd ranked team in the ACC) here by 5 and just lost a tight game @ Louisville (2nd ranked team in the ACC) over the weekend despite having a lead with 3:00 minutes remaining.  The Cards made 11 more FT’s in that 7 point win and scored a ridiculous 1.36 points per possession on a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in that category allowing 0.866 PPP.  It was by far Virginia’s worst defensive performance of the season and the 80 points allowed was a full 10 points more than their previous high.  Even with that they had a shot to win.  That’s because they scored 1.24 points per possession vs a top notch Louisville defense.  It was the Cavaliers top offensive performance of the season and we think they take the momentum and play very well at home offensively tonight.  Especially vs a Notre Dame defense that ranks 14th in the ACC in defensive efficiency (league games).  On the other end of the court, we look for Bennett to have his team playing outstanding defense tonight after their poor performance over the weekend.  The Irish have won 4 straight, however 3 came at home and all 4 were against lower tier ACC teams – all power rated 7th or lower in the league.  Notre Dame is also coming off a big road win over Clemson (12th rated team in the ACC) which was on Sunday giving the Irish very little time to prepare for this one.  With Virginia emerging and this line set much lower than past meetings here (UVA was -16.5 last year) we like the Cavs to win and cover.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET

The money and tickets are flowing in on the Nuggets yet the line on this game has dropped a full point at some Sports Books. We will go contrarian here and bet the Underdog Spurs plus the points. San Antonio has lost 4 straight to kick off their annual Rodeo road trip but now they get a chance to face the team that knocked them out of the playoffs a season ago. San Antonio was recently a 9-point dog in L.A. against the Clippers so you can see for yourself this line is higher than it should be. The last time the Nuggets were favored by 7 to 7.5-points at home was against the Hawks and Kings, who are worse than the Spurs in overall efficiency ratings. Yes, we know the Nuggets are playing well right now, but they have also faced a very tough 10-game stretch that has featured some of the leagues best or hottest teams. We predict a letdown here against the team they eliminated a year ago and who aren’t the same Spurs team as they’ve been in the past. Denver wins at home by an average of +5.9PPG, while the Spurs road differential is minus -4PPG so both of those numbers get us a cover with the underdog in this contes. When catching +7.5 or more points this season the Spurs are 5-1 ATS, while Denver is just 6-8-2 ATS when laying -7.5 or more points. The Spurs are 17-7 ATS the last 24 in Denver. Grab the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Florida State +8 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET

We’re getting 8 points here with a team we really feel has a solid chance to win this game outright.  Both teams come into this game with a 20-3 record along with 10-2 marks in ACC play.  FSU has won 13 of their last 14 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Virginia by 5.  The Seminoles have lost just 11 games in total since the beginning of last year and 8 of those have come by 10 points or less.  They already have a road win vs a top 10 team this year beating Louisville by 13 and tonight sets up as another potential upset, if you want to call it that.  Duke is off their massive rivalry game on Saturday @ UNC.  The Devils won by 2 in OT but it was a game the NEVER LED once in regulation and trailed by 13 with 4:00 remaining.  They put all of their physical and mental energy into that comeback and OT win and now 48 hours later must face a team that is much better than UNC this season.  Meanwhile FSU, perhaps the deepest team in the country, is off an 18 point win over Miami on Saturday and they played 10 guys 10+ minutes so they should be well rested and focused on this one tonight.  The Blue Devils have been far from invincible at home this year with 2 losses already to Stephen F Austin and Louisville.  Their conference home games besides Louisville have come against BC, Wake, Miami, and Pitt so this will be just their 2nd home game vs anyone rated in the top 8 in the ACC and they lost the other one that fell into that category.  We like this match up for the FSU defense.  They are tough inside limiting ACC opponents to just 44% of their points from inside the arc (least in the league).  That plays well against a Duke team that simply doesn’t take many 3’s compared to other teams (13th in the ACC with 26% of their points from deep).  FSU also blocks more shots than any team in the ACC.  Duke could struggle offensively tonight and laying 8 points is not ideal in that spot.  This is a huge game for a rested and talented FSU team.  While it’s also a big game for Duke, we have a feeling they come in a bit flat and wear down in the 2nd half after Saturday’s huge come from behind win.  Take the points as this one goes to the wire.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UMass -1 over George Mason, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET

These two met in January and UMass blew a 9 point second half lead with George Mason coming back for the 73-63 win.  The shooting stats in that game were pretty even across the board.  The difference in the game was the FT line where UMass had 11 points and Mason had 24.  While George Mason has the better overall record with 4 more wins these two have basically the same record in A10 play (UMass 3-7 / George Mason 2-7).  The Patriots played one of the easiest non-conference schedules on the nation (337th) and racked up a few more wins early making them look like the much better team.  That is not the case.  After starting the season 11-1 vs light competition, George Mason has now lost 8 of their last 10 games and they are 1-5 SU in true road games averaging 62 PPG on just 38% from the field.  UMass is coming off back to back road losses vs two of the top teams in the A10 (Davidson & Rhode Island).  They played well in their most recent outing @ URI (10-2 and in 2nd place in the A10) giving the Rams a run for their money in the 6 point loss.  Now they are back at home where they are 3-1 in league play.  They average 78 PPG and shoot 48% at home.  They are simply happy to be playing a home game as 6 of their 10 conference games have come on the road.  UMass is 6-1 ATS their last 7 as a home favorite and they get the win today.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -5.5 over Oral Roberts, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Two teams headed in opposite directions here.  North Dakota State has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming @ South Dakota State (by 5 points) who is currently tied with this NDSU team for 1st place in the Summit.  The Bison’s offense has been rolling scoring at least 70 points in all but one conference game.  They have scored at least 1.11 points per possession in 8 of their 10 Summit League games.  They are coming off a perfect 3-0 road trip and NDSU is 5-0 SU at home in conference play winning by an average score of 79-66.  Oral Roberts, on the other hand, is on the decline.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games with their only win during that run coming at home vs Denver, the lowest rated team in the Summit.  Even in that game, ORU trailed Denver (5-19 overall record / 1-9 in conference) in the 2nd half in a game that was much closer than the 9 point margin.  They lost @ North Dakota on Thursday night and now 2 days later playing @ NDSU.  These two met about a month ago and Oral Roberts gave North Dakota State 79-73, one of their only two conference losses.  NDSU played that game without starter Jared Samuelson.  The Golden Eagles are just 3-10 SU on the road this year with their only wins coming vs teams currently ranked 353rd, 331st, and 276th in the Ken Pom power ratings.  ORU’s defense has been atrocious on the road allowing 76 PPG.  Overall they rank 9th in the league (last) in defensive eFG%, 2 point %, and 3 point %.  North Dakota State has a huge edge on the defensive end rank 1st in the conference in efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, 2nd in 3 point % defense, and 1st in 2 point % defense.  ORU has only won once @ North Dakota State since 2006 losing 8 of the last 9.  The Bison get the win and cover at home on Saturday.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +1 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET

The Raptors have won 12 straight games and have a better record at this point than they did a year ago at this time with Kawhi on the roster. The current streak though is a bit of fool’s gold as 9 of those twelve wins came against losing teams with a combined record of 149-315. One of the Raptors wins over a team with a winning record just came the other night against this same Pacers team. Indiana shot well at 52% for the game but were outscored by 8 from the free throw line in the 1-point loss. The Pacers are still working Victor Oladipo back into the rotation and its clearly effected chemistry with their three-game losing streak, but they did play well in the loss at Toronto. The recent success of the Raptors has impacted this line in a negative way as they were just favored by -5.5-points at home and are still laying 1-point here? The Raps were also just favored by 4-points at Detroit recently who are not in the same discussion as this Pacers team. In recent home games the Pacers were favored against Miami and Philadelphia who are not much different than this Toronto team. Indiana is 18-7 SU at home this year with the 12th best average point differential at +4.4PPG. The home team has won 6 straight in this series and 9 of the last ten. Bet Indiana with revenge tonight.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois -2.5 over Maryland, Friday at 8 PM ET

These two teams are tied for 1st place in the Big Ten so the winner walks away by themselves at the top of the conference.  As you’ve probably noticed, we often like to zero in on good teams playing at home off a loss.  There is much more to it than just randomly taking those teams, but it’s often a starting point.  We have that in this game as the Illini lost by 7 points at Iowa after winning 7 straight prior to that.  Their 3 losses in conference play came @ Iowa, @ Michigan State, and @ Maryland.  The previous match up between these 2 teams was an interesting one.  Illinois led on the road by 14 at half and lost 59-58.  To say the Illini led most of the game would be an understatement.  In fact, Maryland led 3-2 just over a minute into the game and after that they never led again until 59-58 with 2 seconds remaining in the game.  Quite obviously the Illini have been waiting for this rematch.  Maryland steps into this one on a 5 game winning streak.  Three of those wins came at home where they are undefeated this season.  Their two road wins during their streak were @ Northwestern (one of the two worst teams in the league) and by 1 point @ Indiana with the Hoosiers blowing a 6 point lead in the final minute of the game.  Prior to that, the Terps were 0-4 SU in true road games.  On the road this season they are averaging only 62 PPG and making just 36% of their shots.  Illinois is undefeated at home in conference play and their defense, which ranks 3rd in the Big 10 in efficiency, is allowing only 54 PPG in those 5 home conference games.  Illinois is 4-0 ATS their last 4 coming off a SU loss and we like them to win this game at home on Friday.

ASA play on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Houston Rockets, 10:30PM ET

We waited patiently to post this bet today with fear the Lakers would move Kyle Kuzma and disrupt the Lakers chemistry. They didn’t and this roster will rally tonight knowing these are the guys they move forward with. Houston was active with a trade for a wing in Robert Covington, while dealing center Capela, which means they are all-in on small ball moving forward. In our opinion, Houston’s math-metrics has failed, and this team is not capable of coming out of the West. These same two teams squared off in Houston less than a month ago with the 3-point underdog Lakers winning by 9-points. L.A. shot 48% compared to Houston’s 44% and outrebound the Rockets by 4. The edge on the glass tonight will be magnified for the Lakers now that Capela is gone so who on the Rockets roster can match up with Anthony Davis? In the last meeting Capela grabbed 12 rebounds for Houston which will be sorely missed. Speaking of AD, he didn’t play in the first meeting against the Rockets and the Lakers still won by 9 on the road. Houston has a road differential of +0.6PPG which is 10th in the NBA but Los Angeles is 17-6 SU at home with an average MOV of 10PPG. These two Western Conference rivals are very similar when it comes to offensive efficiency ratings, but the Lakers hold a decisive advantage with the 4th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Houston’s 15th. This is one of those games the Lakers will be focused and play at a very high level. Lay the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Appalachian State pick-em over UT Arlington, Thurs at 7 PM ET

App State’s current 6-6 record in Sun Belt play is a bit misleading.  They played 3 of those games (25%) without 2 of their top players.  6’9 forward Isaac Johnson (11 PPG and 7 RPG) missed games on January 2nd, 9th, and 11th (all losses).  Also starting PG O’Showen Williams (11 PPG, 4 RPG, and 2 APG) missed games on January 9th and 11th (both losses as we mentioned).  One of the games where both missed was their first meeting vs this UT Arlington team.   UTA (-5.5) won that game by 10 points but it was closer than that most of the way with Appalachian State down by 3 with just a few minutes remaining.  That was despite 2 of their top players missing the game as we mentioned.  Now they are back and the Mountaineers are playing very well.  They have won 3 of their last 5 games and their only 2 losses during that stretch were both vs Little Rock who is in 1st place at 11-2 a full 2 games ahead of the field.  UTA has won 4 of their last 5 however they’ve played an extremely easy schedule over the last few weeks.  Four of their last five games have come against UL Monroe (twice) and UL Lafayette (twice), 2 of the 3 worst teams in the Sun Belt.  Those 2 teams have combined for just a 6-18 conference record and UTA lost at home to one of them (UL Lafayette) one week ago.   Half of their conference wins have come against teams that are currently in 9th and 10th place in the league and another vs this App State team that wasn’t close to full strength as we mentioned.  We love the way the Mountaineer offense is playing right now as they’ve tallied 1.34, 1.15, 1.13, and 1.14 points per possession in 4 of their last 5 games.  Over those 5 games they are hitting 47% of their shots overall and 40% of their 3 pointers.  Based on the pointspread when they played @ UTA (App State was +5.5) this line should be at least -2 to -2.5 in favor of the Mountaineers.  Actually with their full line up back in place, it should adjust higher than that but with Arlington’s current run (vs poor teams for the most part) this sits around a pick-em.  We’ll take App State to win this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -3 over Wisconsin, Wed at 9 PM ET

We like the way this home game sets up for Minnesota.  The Gophs are off back to back losses vs Michigan State & Illinois and now with an 11-10 overall record (5-6 in the Big 10) they are in must win mode, especially at home, down the stretch.  They have won all but one of their Big 10 home games (lost vs MSU) and they catch Wisconsin in a tough spot.  The Badgers played a huge home game over the weekend vs Michigan State and they had a tough week leading into that game with starter Kobe King transferring and starter Brad Davison missing the game due to a suspension.  Wisconsin rallied in the midst of the controversies surrounding the team and picked up a 64-63 home win.  Now coming down off that emotional spot and going on the road will be tough.  They are just 2-4 on the road in conference play and come into this one having last 3 straight road games.  They are averaging just 58 PPG on the road in Big 10 play and they rely very heavily on the 3-point shot yet only make 29% of their attempts from beyond the arc on the road.  Minnesota has averaged 76 PPG at home this year and they’ve topped 70 points in all but 2 of their 11 home games.  While the Badgers were battling MSU in their must win home game on Sunday, the Gophers have had a full 7 days off to get ready for this big game.  We like Minnesota to win and cover this game at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Penn State, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

MSU is coming off a loss vs an emotional Wisconsin team on Saturday and they’ve bounced back after setbacks as well as anyone.  After each of their first 5 losses they’ve responded with a win the following game by margins of 53, 18, 12, 12, and 8 points.  After Saturday’s loss @ Wisconsin they sit at 8-3 in the Big 10 tied for first place with Illinois and just a half game ahead of Maryland.  All 3 of Sparty’s conference losses have come on the road.  At home they have a perfect 6-0 mark in league play winning by an average margin of 18 points with all 6 wins coming by at least 12 points.  MSU played a terrible first half in Madison on Saturday and head coach Tom Izzo let them have it at halftime.  They responded by outscoring the Badgers by 15 in the 2nd half but still a 1-point loss.  We expect that momentum to continue at home tonight where they take on a PSU team that we feel might a bit overvalued right now coming in off 4 straight wins.  It will be the Nittany Lions 2nd straight road game after they topped the worst team in the Big 10, Nebraska on the road on Saturday.  PSU is 16-5 on the season but just 2-3 on the road with losses coming @ Ohio State by 32, @ Rutgers by 11, and @ Minnesota by 7.  Penn State likes to play fast which plays right into the hands for MSU’s strength and that is their transition game.  The conference teams that have topped Michigan State this year (Wisconsin, Purdue, and Indiana) have been able to slow them down into a grinder type game.  That doesn’t look like it will happen here as the pace should be fast for an MSU team that already averages 85 PPG at home.  Sparty is already 9-2 ATS this year as a home favorite and off their loss we expect them to blast PSU.  The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 meetings and they were favored by very close to this number (-7) @ Penn State last year.  The last 3 times they’ve played host to the Nits they were favored by 17.5, 14, and 13.5 points.  This is a small number to lay in this situation.  MSU by double digits.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Dallas Mavericks,  7PM ET

This is a great spot for a bet on the Pacers who are off a home loss and face the Mavs off a blowout home win. Indiana suffered a setback against the Knicks their last time out as they adjust with the return of former All-Star Victor Oladipo back into the rotation. Oladipo was just 2 of 14 from the field and struggled in 22 minutes of play. The Pacers as a whole shot just 42% against the Knicks which was uncharacteristic of them as they are the 3rd best shooting team in the NBA at 47.6%. The Mavs come into this contest off a 23-point win over the lowly Hawks and will now be playing their 3rd game without All-Star Luka Doncic. Dallas has the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA but that’s with Doncic in the lineup who averages a hair under 29PPG. The Mavs will have a much tougher time scoring here against a Pacers defense that is 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.080 points per possession. The Pacers have an average margin of victory at home this season at +5PPG, are 12-6 SU when coming off a loss and have not lost back to back games at home this year. The home teams has covered 7 of the last nine in this series and that trend continues in this one. We are betting Indiana minus the points at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON San Francisco +1.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET

We had this game power rated at dead even on a neutral field so we’re getting some line value with San Fran in our opinion.  The Niners finished with the better record (15-3 while KC was 14-4) despite facing the tougher schedule.  The NFC West with the Rams & Seahawks (playoff team and playoff caliber team) was much tougher than the AFC West who had every team finish under .500 except the Chiefs.  Down the stretch the 49ers faced a brutal schedule which included Green Bay (twice), LA Rams, Baltimore, New Orleans, Seattle (twice), and Minnesota all in their last 10 games (including playoffs).  The only 2 non playoff caliber teams they played over their last 10 games were Arizona and Atlanta (who was actually playing very well at the end of the season).  KC, on the other hand, faced off against the Chargers (twice), Denver, Oakland, Chicago, and New England over their final 6 regular season games – only one playoff caliber team.  Despite the tougher schedule San Francisco had the better stats - +11 ppg, +96 ypg and +1.3 ypp this season while the Chiefs were +10 ppg, +32 ypg and +0.9 ypp.  San Francisco had a point differential of +169 while KC was +143.  Kansas City took on 8 playoff teams this year going 5-3 SU & ATS and outgaining those playoff opponents by an average of 31.0 yards per game.  San Francisco went 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS against their playoff opponents outgaining those teams by an average of 37.4 yards per game.  Slight edge to Frisco.  We think SF has an edge at many of the positions with QB being one of the few exceptions.  Although it’s not as big of a gap there as some may expect.  Let’s not forget that Niner QB Garoppolo is an amazing 23-5 SU as an NFL starter!  The experts at Pro Football Focus recently ranked the players in the Super Bowl and 18 of the top 26 were 49ers.  We agree with that.  They have a huge edge defensively (2nd in total defense compared to 17th for Chiefs) which has been a successful formula in the past with 44 of the 53 Super Bowl winners entered the game with the higher ranked defense.  They also have a much better ground game (2nd rated compared to 22nd for KC) so we will say with solid confidence that SF will outrush KC here facing a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th allowing 124 YPG on the ground.  If that’s the case, teams that have the higher rushing total in the Super Bowl are 40-12 SU in the Super Bowl.  We think SF will control the ground game, eating clock and keeping KC’s dangerous offense on the sidelines.  We like the better defense and better running game getting points on Sunday.  Take San Francisco.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 2PM ET

We like the movement and public backing of the Pelicans here with Zion Williamson and will bet opposite with Houston. The value in the number is evident when you compare today’s number with recent Rocket home games. At home Houston was favored by 8 over Dallas, -10.5 versus Denver, -7.5 against Oklahoma City and minus -3.5-points against the Lakers. You can see for yourself the value in today’s line. Has the Pelicans played well of late with the addition of Zion? Yes, of course but this is a very manageable number for the home team Rockets to get. Houston wins at home this season by an average of +7.6PPG, have the 7th best offensive efficiency numbers at home and the 13th best DEFF. New Orleans has the 24th worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -5PPG and the 20th worst DEFF when playing away from home. The Pels have two straight road wins but they came against the Cavs, improving Grizzlies and Pistons but their most recent road game against a quality team like Houston was a blowout loss to the Celtics. Houston should play with a little more energy today considering the Pelicans beat them by 15 just a month ago. Lay the points with the Rockets in this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON BYU -6 over St Marys, Saturday at 10 PM ET

This is a rematch from a few weeks ago when BYU traveled to St Marys and lost 87-84 in OT as a +5.5 point underdog.  The stats in that game were almost dead even across the board with St Marys having a slight edge from 3 point land (made 9 to BYU’s 6) and from the FT line (made 20 to BYU’s 14).  BYU played them toe to toe on their home court and did so without their best player and leading scorer Yoeli Childs who averages 21 PPG and 10 RPG. Childs has since returned and this will be his 4th game back after missing 4 games from Jan 9th thru Jan 18th.  The Cougars now get a chance at redemption at home where they are nearly unbeatable.  This year they are 10-1 here at the Marriott Center with their only loss coming by 5 points to San Diego State who is currently the only remaining unbeaten team in the nation at 22-0 and they played that game without Childs as well.  The Cougs led that game by 9 in the 2nd half and still led by 4 with 2:00 minutes remaining.  On top of that, St Mary’s starting guard Tanner Krebs, who had 10 points and 8 rebounds vs BYU, might not be available here after injuring his ankle in a win over Portland on Thursday night.  BYU is better than their 16-7 record, first of all because they played a very tough non-conference schedule (rated 21st toughest non-conference slate that included 7 top 100 teams) and they have played 13 games without Childs (he was suspended for the first 9).  With him in the line up they are 8-2 with an OT loss @ Utah and a 1-point loss @ San Francisco.  We mentioned their record at home this year but this has always been one of the toughest places to play in the nation with BYU sporting a 68-12 SU record their last 80 at home.  St Marys has played 5 true road games this year and while they’ve won 4 of those, BYU will be by far their highest rated opponent on the road thus far.  In fact, 4 of their 5 road opponents are currently ranked outside the top 100 (BYU ranked 18th at this time).  BYU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 2nd in eFG% and 1st nationally in 3-point %.  Those fantastic numbers only improve when they are at home where they average 84 PPG on 51% shooting and 43% from deep.  They have a tendency to blast teams at home with 11 of their last 13 wins here coming by double digits.  St Marys is a solid team but they are in the wrong spot at the wrong time with BYU looking for revenge.  Cougars cover easily here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Detroit -2 over Oakland, Friday at 7 PM ET

We really like the way this Detroit team is playing right now as they are gelling under head coach Mike Davis (former Indiana head coach).  They are just 6-16 on the season but they have won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming @ UWGB in overtime.  Actually they’ve been playing well going back to the beginning of January (4-4 record this month) including a home win over Northern Kentucky, the 2nd best team in the Horizon, and a 1 point loss vs Wright State, the best team in the Horizon.  This Oakland team is headed in the opposite direction.  They are 7-15 on the season but since the turn of the new year they are 1-7 with their only win coming vs Cleveland State who ranks 308th nationally and 2nd to last in the Horizon.  They just lost at home last weekend to IUPUI, the worst team in the Horizon.  Detroit has played the toughest conference schedule to date and they still have a decent 4-5 record in league play.  Oakland has played the 6th toughest schedule and they are 2-7 in the conference.  Detroit has a significant edge in both offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play despite playing the tougher slate.  These two met back in December when Detroit was still finding their way and Oakland took home a 78-69 win.  The Titans outrebounded Oakland, one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, by 10 that day but simply couldn’t hit shots making only 27% of their 66 attempts while Oakland hit 57%.  Detroit has lost 5 straight vs Oakland including a down to the wire game here last season.  With this line sitting at just -2, all we need is for Detroit to win this game and home and we really like them to do just that. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5.5 over Iowa, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET

Both of these teams are 6-3 in the Big 10 but all records are not created equal.  Iowa has played the easiest conference schedule thus far and they are currently on a 5 game winning streak.  Four of those five games have come at home and their lone road game during that stretch was @ Northwestern.  They just faced rival Wisconsin at home on Monday so this is a fairly quick turnaround for them playing on the road tonight.  The Hawkeyes trailed by 12 with just 7:00 minutes remaining in that home game on Monday and rallied for a 6 point win over the short-handed Badgers.  The Hawkeyes have played only 1 tough road game in conference play and that was back in early December @ Michigan which turned into a 12 point loss.  Their other true road games came @ Nebraska (a loss to the worst team in the conference) and @ Northwestern as we mentioned.  They did play Penn State (Iowa lost) in Philadelphia which while closer to PSU was not a true home game for the Nittany Lions.  Now they face a Maryland team that is angry and peaking.  The Terps have won 5 of their last 7 and 3 straight including a win @ Indiana over the weekend.  Their losses during that stretch included a 1-point loss @ Wisconsin in a game they led by 1 and had the ball with 12 seconds remaining, and a blowout loss @ Iowa.  Their game in Iowa city was by far their worst performance of the season.  The Terps lost that game 67-49 and shot only 33% from the field, 18% from 3 point land, and made only 11 of their 20 FT attempts.  And that was against an Iowa defense that ranks 78th nationally in defensive efficiency (11th in the Big 10) so just a poor offensive showing for the Terrapins.  Maryalnd was actually favored by 1.5 points in that game and now only laying 5.5 at home just a few weeks later.  Maryland’s other 3 losses this season (@ PSU, @ Wisc, and @Seton Hall) were all down to the wire contests.  They’ve been waiting for this rematch with Iowa and we expect them to play very well tonight.  They are a perfect 11-0 at home winning all but one of those games by at least 7 points.  Nine of those eleven home wins have come by double digits and their average home winning margin this year is 17 points.  Maryland beat Iowa here 91-73 last year and we see a potential similar outcome tonight.  Iowa is ripe for a beatdown and we think it comes tonight.  Lay it with Maryland.  

ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks +7 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30PM ET

Plug your nose with this bet but it’s the logical play to make given the circumstances. Philly is in a scheduling nightmare as they recently played two big games against the Raptors and Lakers prior to beating the Warriors at home. On the horizon for the Sixers are THREE HUGE road contests at Boston, Miami and Milwaukee so looking past the Hawks is to be expected here. The Hawks have recently been blown out on the road in Toronto and Oklahoma City but were competitive in a home loss to the Raptors by 5 and beat the Clippers and Wizards. Atlanta has a losing home record of 7-16 but their average loss margin is -4.1PPG which clearly gets the cover here. Philadelphia has not been good on the road this season with a 9-15 SU mark and a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Earlier this season the Hawks lost by just 2-points at home to the 76ers who have just one spread win their last 9 road contests. Atlanta is shooting over 46% their last five games and they’ll make enough tonight at home to get the money in this one.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Los Angeles Kings, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET

Teams that have played a game after the All Star break have a big edge over teams that haven't played.  We saw that last night with St Louis off a loss in their first game back and then winning at Calgary (a team that hadn't played).  Also Ottawa upset the Sabres last night and the fact that Buffalo hadn't played and was rusty was a big factor as the Senators had played the night before and it showed.  That makes this situation a particularly strong one because one of the best teams in the league (Tampa Bay) is taking on one of the worst teams in the league (Los Angeles).  The Kings have not played since Saturday the 18th so this is a span of more than a week and a half off!  As for the Lightning, they played Monday at Dallas and suffered an overtime loss against the Stars.  As their coach noted, Tampa Bay was sloppy in their first game back and made mistakes.  This has been a key theme for all the teams coming back from extended time off.  We expect it to be no different for the Kings tonight and Tampa Bay, already having a game under their belts, will take full advantage.  Los Angeles has lost 11 of its past 14 games!  The Kings scored an average of only 1.6 goals per game in those 11 defeats.  Now the rusty Kings will be tasked with trying to stop an angry Tampa Bay team that had won 12 of 14 games prior to the loss to the Stars.  The Lightning have scored an average of 4.5 goals per game in those 12 victories!  You can see this is a mismatch and, of course, that is why Tampa Bay is a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line.  Where we get the value is by playing the Lightning on the puck line and laying the 1.5 goals for a plus money price in return!  4 of Tampa's last 6 road wins have come by a margin of 2 or more goals.  4 of the Kings last 5 home losses have come by a multiple-goal margin.  Also, Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy had won 10 straight starts prior to the OT loss at Dallas.  The Lightning have been getting fantastic goal-tending.  Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting a comeback price, currently in +120 range) with Tampa Bay is the value play here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oral Roberts -4 over South Dakota State, Wed at 8 PM ET

Despite their 4-3 Summit League record, we have Oral Roberts power rated as the best team in the league.  Other are in agreement including Ken Pom who also has them #1 in the conference.  They’re 11-9 overall record is misleading because they played a brutal non-conference schedule ranked as one of the 15 toughest in the nation.  Some of their non-conference opponents included Iowa, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Creighton, and BYU all on the road!  Despite losing those games, they were competitive in all of them and covered 4 of those 5.  On top of that, they’ve played the toughest Summit League schedule to date as well with 5 of their first 7 conference games coming on the road.  At home they’ve been great with an 8-0 SU record but they haven’t played a home game since January 11th, a 15-point win over North Dakota.  Dating back to last season, ORU has covered 11 of their last 12 home games.  This year they are averaging 85 PPG while allowing only 64 PPG.  We also like the fact they are coming off a road loss @ red hot South Dakota over the weekend.  South Dakota State currently sits in 1st place in the Summit with a 6-2 record making this pretty much a must win for ORU if they want to keep pace with the Jackrabbits.  SDSU is also off a huge home game vs North Dakota State which was a battle for 1st place and the Jackrabbits win the game by 5 points.  On the road they haven’t been good with a 3-8 SU record.  Their 2 road wins in conference play came @ Denver and @ IPFW, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the league.  Their other 2 Summit road games were losses @ South Dakota (by 15) and @ Omaha (by 3) two teams rated well below this Oral Roberts team.  ORU has lost 6 in a row to SDSU to they while they don’t really need any extra motivation, they do have some tonight.  So far this season, the Summit ranks as the toughest league to get a road win in conference play with only 23% of the visiting teams winning games (lowest rate in the NCAA).  Now we get a very good team, at home in a must win spot, off a loss, vs a team that sits ahead of them in the standings but has been poor on the road.  This is a great spot for Oral Roberts and we’ll jump on it.

ASA play on: Phoenix Suns +6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

This situation is ideal for a wager on the Suns who are off a loss and catch the Mavs off a win last night. So not only are the Mavericks playing the second night of a back to back, but they are also off a big win against OKC and they have a bigger game on deck against instate rival Houston. Phoenix is off a close road loss in Memphis but had won three straight road games prior to that against the Spurs, Celtics and Knicks. Dallas is just 6-7 ATS when laying 7 or more points at home this season so it’s not like they are a great heavy home favorite. Phoenix on the other hand has been a great underdog this year with a 7-2 spread record when catching 5 plus points. Dallas is 13-11 SU at home this season with an average differential of +6PPG (10th in the NBA). Phoenix is 10-11 SU away from home with the 12th best overall road differential of minus just 1.9PPG. The Mavs are 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS when playing without rest but the average margin of victory is less than 5PPG. Phoenix has covered 8 of the last ten in this series and 5 of six on this court. Phoenix hangs around the entire game and will have a chance to steal a win late. Grab the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -2.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

The home/road dichotomy of these two teams is quite dramatic.  Rutgers is a perfect 14-0 at home this year winning by an average score of 73-56.  The Knights hit over 47% of their shots at the RAC while allowing opponents to make only 35%.  Purdue is 1-5 on the road this year with their only win coming @ Ohio, the 9th rated team in the 12 team MAC.  The Boilers are 0-4 on the road in Big 10 play and in those conference road games they have scored 37, 50, 56, and 62 (in regulation) points.  They are shooting only 35% away from home and making less than 24% of their 3-pointers.  Don’t expect Purdue to do much offensively tonight vs a Rutgers defense that ranks 4th nationally in defensive FG%, 12th in 3-point % allowed, and 9th in defensive efficiency.  They have allowed less than 60 points in 10 of their 14 home games.  Facing a Purdue offense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency AND eFG% (conference games only) plays perfectly into what Rutgers does best.  We are also getting Rutgers off a sub par performance here over the weekend as they barely clipped Nebraska by 3 points.  They led by 14 in the 2nd half of that game and nearly blew it.  They should be focused here.  Purdue is off a huge, must win home game beating Wisconsin 70-51 in a game where the Badgers looked flat and the Boilers outrebounded them 42 to 16.  That won’t happen here as Rutgers is one of the top rebounding teams in the Big 10.  The Knights also have some extra motivation here as they’ve NEVER beaten Purdue since joining the league back in 2015.  They are 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 home games and Purdue is just 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 as an underdog.  Rutgers is the better team this year and they get the home win and cover tonight.

ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET

We have not supported the Heat many times this season but will here. Miami has been nearly unbeatable at home this season with a 20-2 SU record and one of those losses came in their last home game. We love to back good teams off a loss and this situation couldn’t be any better than it is, especially with the Magic off a game yesterday. Both Miami and Orlando were just beaten by the Clippers, but the Heat are rested while the Magic played yesterday. Orlando is also playing their 3rd game in four days so fatigue will be a factor. Miami has the 5th best average margin of victory at home in the NBA at +10PPG, are the 3rd most efficient offense at home and 7th in defensive efficiency. Orlando is 8-15 SU away from home with a negative differential of -3.1PPG. The Magic have the 25th worst offensive efficiency numbers on the road but rank 7th in DEFF. In their last five games overall, the Heat are shooting over 47% from the field while the Magic are allowing foes to hit nearly that same percentage in their last five contests. Miami has taken care of the lesser teams at home this year with a 11-3 ATS record against sub .500 teams on their home floor. Miami will bounce back here with a double-digit home win.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Siena -4 over Quinnipiac, Sunday at 2 PM ET

Quinnipiac comes in with a 5-2 record in the MAAC however they’ve also played the easiest schedule in conference play to date.  They are 10-7 overall and their total strength of schedule ranks 350th nationally out of 353 teams.  In conference play they’ve had 5 home games and just 2 road games and their road games were vs the worst team in the MAAC Marist (Quinnipiac won by 3) and at Manhattan the 7th rated team in the league (Quinnipiac lost by 12).  Siena is 4-4 in league play however they have played half their games on the road.  At home Siena is a perfect 8-0 SU on the season averaging 76 PPG.  Quinnipiac averages just 66 PPG on the road and barely shoots 40%.  Siena tweaked their starting line up on Friday at home in order to get their best offensive players all on the floor at the same time.  The Saints picked up a 13 point win and have some positive momentum heading into today’s match up.  Siena faces Saint Peter’s here a few weeks ago and they were laying 6.5 in that game and we have Quinnipiac rated dead even with Saint Peter’s.  Plus Siena played that game without one of their top players Elijah Burns (Notre Dame transfer) who has scored in double digits 12 times this year and the still beat Saint Peters.  Line value is with Siena here.  Finally they have some extra motivation heading into this game as they lost as a favorite here to Quinnipiac last year in triple OT.  Lay this small number with Siena on Sunday.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern -2 over Georgia State, Saturday at 5 PM ET

We faded this Georgia Southern team last Saturday @ South Alabama and picked up a 6 point win with the Jaguars.  We felt that was a perfect spot to do so as GSU was off a road win @ Troy a few nights earlier and South Alabama was coming off a home loss to Georgia State.  Now off a loss and back at home we really like Georgia Southern on Saturday.  These two rivals are tied for 2nd place in the Sun Belt with 6-3 records 2 games behind Little Rock who is 8-2.  Georgia State has overachieved this year in our opinion as they lost 5 of their top 7 players from last year.  They’ve been really solid at home but on the road in conference play they have a record of just 2-3 including losses @ Troy and @ Arkansas State, the 10th and 9th rated teams in the league.  Today they are facing a Georgia Southern team that is a perfect 8-0 at home this year and 27-6 their last 33 home games.  One of those 6 losses was here last year vs Georgia State (who won the conference and went to the NCAA tourney) and that was on Senior Night and GSU’s home finale so the Eagles have been patiently waiting for this rematch.  Unlike State who as we mentioned had a large turnover from last year, Georgia Southern brings back 6 players who played key roles in last year’s home loss so they will be ready here.  Southern was favored by 5 in that home game last year vs a better Georgia State team.  Prior to GSU’s home loss last year, the host had won 16 straight in this rivalry.  The Eagles should have a solid home court edge here as a sellout is expected today.  Eeverything we like points to a Georgia Southern home win and cover.          

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois State -1.5 over Southern Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET

Southern Illinois is a young team with 4 freshmen in their top 7 and those type of teams normally struggle on the road.  That would be an understatement for the Salukis as they are now 0-7 SU on the road this season.  Their 3 Missouri Valley road losses have all come by at least 12 points.  We’re also catching this inexperienced team in a great spot to fade them coming off 2 straight home wins including their biggest win of the year on Wednesday night beating Northern Iowa by 2 points.  It was a tough spot for the Panthers, the highest rated team in the MVC, as they were off a big road win @ Bradley with a 1st place face off vs Loyola on deck.  UNI was homered a bit by the officials in that road game going to the line just 4 times compared to 23 for Southern Illinois yet the Panthers still had a shot missing a 3 pointer at the buzzer for the win.  It’s going to be tough for this SIU team to turn around just a few days after that emotional win and play well on the road where they’ve struggled all year.  ISU opened the MVC slate with a win over Northern Iowa and have since lost 6 straight.  Four of those six games were on the road and they were underdogs in 5 of those games so not a big surprise they are in a losing streak.  ISU is hungry for a win and they are finally favored in a game they can absolutely win.  They’ve won 12 in a row vs Southern Illinois at home with the Salukis last win in Bloomington coming in 2006.  There is a reason the team that is 1-6 in league play is favored.  Take Illinois State.

ASA play on: Orlando Magic -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET

The Celtics have some key injuries heading into this contest but that’s not the main reason for this selection. Orlando has made solid stride this season and are looking like a quality playoff contender in the East. The Magic do it with a defense that allows the least points per game at 104.3 and has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.062 points per possession. Orlando is 13-9 SU on their home floor with the 14th best home differential of +2.6PPG. The Magic have faced one of the toughest schedules in the NBA when at home this season with 12 games against current playoff teams. We like the situation with the Magic off home loss which came after a brutal 6-game West Coast road trip. We predict Boston will let down here following a pair of big home wins, especially with the light roster. The Celtics are 11-9 SU on the road this season but they have lost their last three away from home. Orlando has beaten the Celtics in three straight meetings and 4 of the last five. This is a great spot to fade Boston and back Orlando. Magic by 10.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -7 over IPFW, Thursday at 8 PM ET

We were on South Dakota on Sunday vs a South Dakota State team that was sitting in 1st place in the Summit at the time.  South Dakota rolled them by a final score of 99-84.  As we mentioned on Sunday, we feel the Coyotes are much better than their 12-8 record (3-3 in conference play) because their leader and starting PG Triston Simpson missed 7 games between November 30th and December 22nd and his loss was a big one.  During that stretch South Dakota had a 3-4 record and now that he is back to full strength they are playing their best basketball of the year.  They have won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss was by 2 points @ North Dakota State (currently in 1st place in the Summit).  We picked this veteran Coyotes (4 senior starters & 1 junior starter) to win the Summit prior to the season and they are now playing up to those standards.  Their opponent tonight, IPFW, is one of the worst teams in the league.   They have lost 6 of their last 9 games with all 6 of those losses coming by at least 9 points.  They rank dead last in the conference (league games) in offensive efficiency and eFG%.  On top of that they are a poor defensive team ranking 322nd nationally in eFG% defense and 314th in 3-point FG% defense.  That will be a huge problem tonight as they face a South Dakota offense that is among the best in the country.  The Coyotes are shooting over 48% on the season (13th nationally) and over 41% from beyond the arc (1st nationally).  They are very tough to guard with all 5 starters averaging at least 10 PPG, shooting at least 45% from the field, and 3 of the 5 starters hitting 43% or better from behind the arc.  The Coyotes also will have some extra motivation (x2) for this game as these two met a few weeks ago @ IPFW and the Mastodons pulled off the upset.  The normally very good shooting South Dakota team made only 36% of their shots in that game and the previously mentioned Triston Simpson had just returned from his injury and was 0 for 6 from the field and committed 5 turnovers.  He has since gotten back into a groove with 41 points, 10 assists, and just 2 turnovers in his last 3 games combined.  On top of that, this South Dakota team lost to IPFW in last year’s Summit League tourney ending the Coyotes season.  IPFW is just 2-8 SU on the road this year and they will struggle keeping up offensively vs South Dakota who just put up 99 points here at home vs one of the top teams in the Summit.  We’ll lay this number and expect a double digit win for South Dakota.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -1 over Phoenix Suns 9PM ET

We certainly like the situation with a good team like Indiana off a horrible showing and loss in their previous game. We successfully played against the Pacers in their previous game as they were in a bad scheduling situation coming off a win in Denver the night before and facing a red hot Jazz team in Utah. Now Indiana has a day of rest and step down in talent to face the Suns. The Pacers had won 5 straight games leading into the Jazz loss and had won four straight road games against quality foes. Indiana has been very good when coming off a loss with a 5-1 spread run. Phoenix is average (15th) in the NBA when it comes to a point differential of +0.8PPG but have a losing record of 9-15 SU. Of the Suns 9-home wins only 3 have come against teams with winning records. The Suns rank in the bottom third of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings while Indiana is 11th in both when playing of the road. Phoenix is on an 0-5 ATS spread run at home and Indiana will make it six in a row.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -5 over Penn State, Wed at 7 PM ET

This has become a must win early season situation for Michigan who has lost 3 of their last 4 games to drop to 2-4 in the Big 10.  The Wolverines have played one of the toughest schedules on the nation (4th SOS) and all 6 of their losses on the season have come to teams ranked in our top 35 power rankings.  Five of those six losses have come on the road with their only home loss coming by 1-point in OT vs Oregon in a game the Ducks shot the lights out hitting over 50% from the field and from behind the arc.  The Wolverines are home off 2 straight road losses @ Minnesota by 8 and @ Iowa by 7.  The actually led the Gophers with only 3:00 minutes remaining and also led Iowa with 5:00 minutes remaining so they were very close to a couple of big road wins.  They catch Penn State off a huge home win over Ohio State on Saturday.  Now the Nittany Lions head on the road where they are 0-3 SU in Big 10 play with losses @ Ohio St, @ Rutgers, and @ Minnesota.  The Wolverines are one of the best shooting teams in the nation and at home they are even better hitting 51% of his shots and averaging 83 PPG.  This is a very tough spot for a PSU team that has simply not historically been good on the road in conference play.  As we mentioned they have yet to win a Big 10 road game this year and they have won just 8 of their last 32 conference road games.  They are 0-9 their last 9 trips to Ann Arbor losing by an average of 12 PPG.  Going back further PSU is just 1-16 SU their last 17 games here.  Big 10 home teams continue to roll in the money with a 31-19 ATS record in conference play.  Here we have a good Big 10 team at home in a spot they need to win with a more than manageable line.  Take Michigan. 

ASA play on: LA Clippers +1.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

You know you’ve made it in the NBA when you are referred to by just one name and Luka Doncic has joined that elite status in the Association. With that success and fame though the Mavs have now become a very public team with bettors and have provided opportunities to bet against them in the right situation. Tonight, is that scenario as the Mavs are just 3-6 ATS at home versus winning teams, just 1-6 ATS overall as a home dog or small home favorite of less than 4-points. That streak includes a home loss to this same Clippers team earlier this season. Los Angeles is 8-3 SU their last eleven road games and coming off a solid road win against the red-hot Pelicans a few nights ago. The Clippers are top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency along with average margin of victory at +2.4PPG. The Mavs are top 10 at home in offensive efficiency and average MOV but rank 17th in defensive efficiency. Dallas is playing well their last five games, but the Clippers have been even better. With or without Paul George the Clippers get a big road win tonight.  

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

Purdue has the largest home-road dichotomies in the Big 10 and one of the most drastic in the nation.  The Boilers are 0-5 SU in true road games with an average score of 55-68.  At home they are 8-1 winning by an average score of 77-54.  They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games (all losses on the road) and sit with a 3-4 Big 10 record which is tied for 9th in the league.  This is a huge home game for them and one they cannot afford to lose.  Their most recent home game, and their only win over their last 4 games, was vs 1st place Michigan State on Sunday, January 12th.  That was a game that saw the Boilermakers crush the best team in the conference by a final score of 71-42.  They have now won all but one of their home games by double digits and their defense has been lights out at Mackey Arena holding 6 of their 9 opponents under 60 points and allowing opponents to hit only 38% of their shots overall and just 25% from beyond the arc.  Purdue should be a little extra motivated for this game after losing @ Illinois 63-37 just 2 weeks ago.  They made just 15 of their 60 shot attempts in the game (25%) and only 3 of their 17 from beyond the arc (18%).  The Illini are 5-2 in conference and they have won 4 straight.  After beating Purdue, the Illini went to Wisconsin and won by 1 point (came from 10 down and just over 5:00 minutes remaining), they struggled at home to get by Rutgers by 3 and Illinois by 4.  Because of their run, Illinois is now ranked 24th by the AP Poll which is the first time this program has been ranked since 2014.  We often see teams that are not used to the national publicity of being ranked fall on their faces shortly after.  We feel this is the game the Illini do just that vs an extremely motivated opponent.  Illinois has had big time troubles when traveling to Purdue, as most Big 10 teams have, losing 9 of the last 10 with their average loss coming by 10.2 points.  We like Purdue to win again by double digits picking up another home cover.  Another note we’ve made in many of our Big 10 write ups, the home teams continue to win at a huge clip with a 116-10 SU record on the year if we take out the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska).  More of the same on Tuesday.

ASA PLAY ON: Sacramento Kings +6 over Miami Heat, 5PM ET

*Note this is a day game* The statistical support is underwhelming here as we are going against the Heat at home where they are 18-1 SU but we like the situation and the points with the Kings. Miami is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd game in four days and the second of a back to back after a loss yesterday in San Antonio. The Kings meanwhile had a day off after a loss in Utah. Statistically the Kings don’t have great numbers on the road this year with a 7-14 SU record but they’ve also been plagued by several key injuries. They are finally healthy with Bagley, Bjelica and Fox on the court together and should start trending up with a full roster. Sacramento is just 1-3 SU their last four on the road but two of the losses were at Denver and Memphis by 5 and 4-points. Miami has struggled this season when playing without rest with just 1 cover in seven tries this season. Don’t expect much energy in Miami for this day game and don’t be surprised when the Kings hand the Heat their second home loss of the season.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Old Dominion -4.5 over Charlotte, Monday at 4:30 PM ET

ODU has lost 3 straight, all road games, and now they sit at 2-3 in Conference USA.  They now have 3 straight home games and a chance to get back into the conference race.  One of those 3 road losses for the Monarchs was @ Charlotte on January 11th.  It was a close game with Charlotte winning 53-47 despite ODU going 1 of 22 from 3-point range (Charlotte made 8 three pointers) and making only 4 FT’s (Charlotte made 11 FT’s).  Those disadvantages from deep and at the foul line should have resulted in an easy Charlotte win at home and it did not.  ODU is a bit undervalued coming off 3 losses and due to their 6-12 record on the season.  They have played a very tough schedule (91st most difficult non-conference slate) including the likes of Illinois, VCU, Washington State, Northern Iowa, Richmond, and Loyola.  This is a very solid program under head coach Jeff Jones coming off a 26-9 record last season and getting to at least 25 wins in 4 of the last 5 seasons.  They are taking on a Charlotte team that has a better overall record at 10-6 but, unlike ODU, has played one of the easiest schedules in the country (316th SOS).  The 49ers have played 1 team ranked inside the top 100 this year and that was a loss vs Georgia State, currently ranked 98th.  Charlotte is also playing their 3rd road game in 5 days after winning @ Marshall by 2 points on Thursday and then losing @ WKY by 17 points on Saturday.  Old Dominion has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 SU and they’ve been favored by at least 10 points at home vs Charlotte each of the last 4 meetings.  Now they are laying only 4.5 and we like ODU to cover this one at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -1.5 over South Dakota State, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET

South Dakota State sits at 5-1 and in 1st place in the Summit.  We feel they are overvalued right now and this is a great spot to go against them.  They have played a very easy conference schedule as they’ve already faced the 4 worst teams in the 9 team Summit.  Their other 2 games were vs Oral Roberts (win at home) and Nebraska Omaha (loss on the road).  They’ve played 3 road games in conference play losing to Omaha as we mentioned and the other 2 were wins but @ Denver and @ Western Illinois, the 2 worst teams in the league.  We picked this South Dakota team to contend for the Summit title this year as they returned 4 starters and another who sat out last season but started in 2018.  The started league play slowly with back to back road losses but have since won 2 of their last 3.  Their lone loss during that stretch was @ North Dakota State 72-70 on Wednesday night.  State is also one of the favorites to win the conference.  The Coyotes 11-8 overall record is also a bit misleading as they played 7 games spanning late November into late December without one of their top players Triston Simpson (Senior starting point guard).  Their record was 3-4 without him in the lineup.  They are 7-1 at home this year shooting over 50% from the field and averaging 80 PPG.  South Dakota State is 14-7 overall this year however they have beaten a grand total of ONE team ranked inside the top 200 this season (Oral Roberts at home).  Unlike South Dakota, they lost 4 of their top 5 players off last year’s team and and their coach who moved onto UNLV.  While they currently sit in 1st place, we feel the Jackrabbits are ripe for an upset.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: San Antonio Spurs +1 over Miami Heat, 3PM ET

This is a great spot to back a veteran, proven team at home off a humiliating loss AND playing with nearly immediate revenge after losing in Miami just a few nights ago. San Antonio just lost at home to the Hawks who they had beaten 21 straight times on their home court. The Spurs blew a 14-point lead in a sloppy 4th quarter. Good team respond after efforts like that and even though the Spurs aren’t contender this season, they are still a proud franchise with great coaching and will bounce back here. Miami has struggled on the road all season long with a 11-11 SU record away from home and a negative differential of -2.6PPG (14th). In their most recent meeting, the Heat shot remarkably well at home where they are 18-1, by hitting 47% for the field and 42% from 3. They typically don’t shoot that well away from home this season and face a well-motivated Spurs team. It’s not often the Spurs are a home underdog as it’s happened just 22 times since the start of the 2017 season and they have won 15 of those games. Not to mention they are 8-1-1 ATS their last ten when coming off a loss. We’re betting San Antonio here and invite you to do the same.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas City -7 over Tennessee, Sunday at 3 PM ET

The Titans are obviously on a great roll winning back to back road playoff games as an underdog.  However, now they are in a very tough situation playing their 4th consecutive road game vs a team that is even hotter than they are as the Chiefs have won and covered 7 straight games.  It’s very rare to see a team playing their 4th straight road game spanning into the playoffs.  In fact, out database, which goes back to 1980, reveals it has happened just 4 times and those road teams are 0-4 SU & ATS in that fourth game.  They’ve also had the equivalent of 3 straight road playoff games entering this one as their final regular season game @ Houston was a must win or the Titans would not be in the playoffs.  That takes a toll physically and mentally and that’s why the fourth game has come up all zeros in the past.  KC on the other hand had a week off heading into last week’s 51-31 win over Houston and will be playing again at home.  Just a huge situational edge for KC.  In their two wins thus far, the Titans were outgained in both (by a combined 265 yards) and QB Tannehill has thrown for only 71 & 83 yards.  As good as RB Henry has been, we believe Tennessee will need to do much more offensively in order to keep up with the Chiefs.  Last week the Titan defense faced a whopping 92 offensive snaps which is the equivalent of about a game and a half so that added to their tough road situation should have this defense tired by the 2nd half.  Baltimore had plenty of chances offensively as the Ravens were shut out on downs FOUR times inside Tennessee territory including 3 times inside the 21 yard line.  The Ravens only punted ONCE the entire game.  The Titans were very fortunate in our view.  KC’s last loss was back in November and it was vs this Tennessee team.  The Titans won that game 35-32 but the Chiefs dominated the stat sheet rolling up 530 yards to only 370 for Tennessee.  The Titans scored on a long fumble return and put up the game winning TD with just 23 seconds remaining in the game.  KC also missed 2 FG’s in the 4th quarter and held a 9 point lead in that game with around 6:00 minutes remaining in the game.  KC QB Mahomes put up 446 yards passing and 3 TD’s in that game and we expect another huge effort here.  Despite this number sitting at 7, we still feel the value is with KC.  Speaking of that first meeting, KC was favored by 5 @ Tennessee (late November) and now laying just 7 at home.  Last week Tennessee was +10 @ Baltimore so we would expect it to be about the same here, especially with the Titans travel situation being on the road for basically a full month now.    While Tennessee is getting most of the accolades for how they have been playing down the stretch and in the playoffs, let’s remember that KC has won 7 straight by an average of 17 PPG.  They also just beat the team that WON the AFC South (same division as Tennessee) by 20 points.  We think the Titans run ends here and KC wins by double digits.  

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

Great spot for the Terps here.  They are off 2 consecutive road losses @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin.  Now sitting at 3-3 in the Big 10, they can’t afford to give this home game away before going on the road for 2 more games next week.  Purdue comes in off a huge home upset over Michigan State.  They key word there is home, where the Boilers are very good.  Not so much on the road.  Purdue is 1-4 this year in true road games (0-3 in the Big 10) with their only win coming @ Ohio who currently rates as the 10th best team in the MAC. Their road losses in conference play have come by 6, 14, and 26 points including a setback @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10.  They are not a very good shooting team to begin with ranking 283rd nationally at 41.7%, however those number drop significantly when they are on the road.  In fact, in their 5 road games the Boilers have managed to make only 35% of their attempts and just 25% from beyond the arc.  To put those poor numbers in perspective, if those were the full season percentages for Purdue, they would rank 347th out of 350 in both of those categories.  Not good to say the least.  Not only is Maryland in a semi-must win game here, they are back at home where they are 10-0 SU this season winning by an average of 18 PPG.  All but 1 of those 10 home wins have come by at least 10 points.  The Terps play great defense allowing opponents to shoot just 37% so don’t expect a poor shooting Purdue team to find their rhythm in this game.  Maryland has topped 70 points in 8 of their 10 home games while Purdue is averaging just 59 PPG on the road this year.  Last year when the Terps played host to the Boilers they were small dogs (+2) and rolled Purdue 70-56.  At Purdue the Terrapins almost pulled the upset a year ago losing by 2.  The Boilermakers were a much better team last year ranked consistently in Ken Pom’s top 10 throughout the season.  Maryland is a better team this year returning all but 1 key member from last year’s NCAA tourney team.  The Big 10 home teams continue to dominate with a remarkable 108-10 SU mark if you subtract the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska).  Great situation for Maryland and they are the better team this year.  Lay the small number.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -8.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 8:30PM ET

The Spurs have been up and down, but we like them here off a road loss in Miami a few nights ago. Conversely, the Hawks are off a rare win, just their 3rd in their last eighteen games, and we don’t see them playing well here. San Antonio is 3-1 SU their last four home games which includes a 22-point home win over the Bucks in their last home game. Atlanta has the worst average differential in the NBA this season at minus -13.8PPG. In the Hawks most recent road contest they were just +8.5 point in Brooklyn who rates several spots lower than the Spurs in our power ratings and yet the number is the same in this matchup. Atlanta was drubbed by the Nets by 22-points in that road game. Atlanta is 1-7 SU off a win this season while the Spurs are 6-3 ATS at home off a loss. Current trending statistics have the Hawk shooting under 42% their last five games while the Spurs are hitting over 48% of their FG attempts. The Hawks defense over their last five games has been worse than the Spurs also. San Antonio is 11-9 SU at home this year but have faced 10 teams at home that made the playoffs last year and the Hawks aren’t of that caliber. Atlanta is just 6-14 ATS as a dog in the price range of 5 to 9.5-points this season and their 25th ranked defensive efficiency unit will struggle to slow the Spurs 9th ranked OEFF unit. The Hawks also have the 30th ranked offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. San Antonio by 10 plus points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Troy +5 over Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET

Troy comes in undervalued with a 7-11 overall record, 3-4 in the Sun Belt.  They are better than their record and playing very well right now.  After starting conference play with a 1-3 record, the Trojans have won 2 of their last 3 with their only loss during that stretch coming on Saturday @ Arkansas State where they lost in OT.  Troy led by 11 in the game with just over 7:00 minutes to go and ASU was able to push the game to OT and get a win.  Prior to that the Trojans won by 8 @ Texas State (the pre-season favorite in the Sun Belt) as a 10 point dog and then topped 1st place Little Rock by 5 as a 2 point dog here at Trojan Arena.  Tonight they face a Georgia Southern team that is tied for 1st place (along with Little Rock and Georgia State) and we give Troy a great shot at beating a 1st place team at home for the 2nd straight week.  Georgia Southern is off back to back double digit wins at home vs the two worst teams in the conference (UL Monroe & UL Lafayette) to improve their home mark to 8-0.  However, on the road this GSU team is just 2-6 SU including conference losses @ App State and @ Little Rock.  Their lone Sun Belt road win was by 3 points @ Coastal Carolina.  Even if they win here, we expect it to be close and Southern is laying 5 points when one week ago, Little Rock (also in 1st place) was laying 2 @ Troy (and lost as we mentioned).  The current spread of -5 is GSU’s highest number they’ve laid on the road this season, tied with when they played @ Florida Gulf Coast who is ranked 320th, has a 5-14 record with 2 of their wins coming vs non-division 1 schools and 2 other wins in OT.  This line is too high.  Troy is better defensively allowing 41.6% (150th nationally) while Southern allows 44% and is a full 100 spots lower in total defense (250th nationally).  Troy has won 5 of their last 6 at home with their only loss coming by 5 vs App State in a game the Trojans led by 12 in the 2nd half.  Again, we feel Troy has a great shot to win this game and even if not, it should be close.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Orlando Magic +10.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET

We like the Magic in this match up and the double-digits being offered by the oddsmakers. Let’s start with the Magic who have won 5 of their last seven games and getting great contributions from Vucevic, Fornier, Fultz and Gordon. The Magic have been great defensively all season long allowing the least amount of points in the NBA this season, but the offense has struggled. In their last five games though their offensive efficiency numbers are trending up significantly. The Lakers are an impressive 16-4 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory is +10.6 PPG which is on the number here. Of the Lakers 16 home wins though, six of those wins came against six of the worst teams in the NBA and were blowouts by 19 or more points which has inflated their average margin of victory numbers. Tonight, they face a relevant Magic teams that is obviously great defensively and capable of hanging within the spread. Los Angeles is also in a bad scheduling situation here as they just crushed the horrible Cavs and have a big game in Houston next. It looks like Anthony Davis will be out of the lineup again tonight which is a bonus for our Magic bet. Grab the points with the Magic who have been double-digit dogs just once this season and they covered that game.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -3 over Indiana, Wed at 7 PM ET - ASAwins Big 10 Game of the Week

This game has set up perfectly for Rutgers in our opinion.  The Scarlet Knights are a very good team this year and we’re catching them off a tight loss @ Illinois on Saturday in a game they never trailed by more than 6.  That dropped them to 3-2 in Big 10 play with their other loss coming @ Michigan State a game Rutgers trailed by just 6 with under 4:00 minutes remaining.  Tonight starts a huge stretch for the Knights with 4 of their last 5 at home.  They can make a big move in the Big 10 and it starts vs Indiana.  They are a perfect 11-0 at home including conference wins over top 35 opponents Penn State (35th), Wisconsin (22nd) and Seton Hall (13th).  They have won by at least 10 points in 8 of their 11 home games including an impressive 20 point victory over Seton Hall who is currently rated as the top team in the Big East.  The Knights are simply fantastic on defense ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th in the country allowing their opponents to shoot just 36.7% from the field.  Indiana is vastly overrated in our opinion with a 13-3 record.  They are 3-2 in Big 10 play as well but have played the easiest conference schedule to date having already faced both Northwestern & Nebraska, the two worst teams in the league by a mile.  We currently have IU rated as the 11th best team in the conference and Ken Pom’s ratings almost agree as he has them 10th.  The Hoosiers are coming off a big home win over OSU on Saturday in a game that was much closer than the 66-54 final score.  Before that IU struggled to beat Northwestern (won by 4) and Nebraska (by 6 in OT) and both of those games were at home.  They have played just 2 true road games on the season and they were smoked in both games losing by 20 @ Wisconsin and by 16 @ Maryland.  The Hoosiers are averaging just 60 PPG on 38% shooting on the road and tonight they run into one of the best defensive teams in the nation as we mentioned.  This Rutgers team is by far their best team in the last 15+ seasons.  We have them rated in the top 30 and Ken Pom has them at 32.  To put that in perspective, they haven’t been in the top 70 period since Ken Pom’s records began in 2002.  They’ve actually been outside the top 100 in most of those seasons.  Last year when these two met here, Rutgers was ranked 97th in KenPom and they won by 8.  Two years ago Rutgers was ranked 130th at the time they beat Indiana in the Big 10 tournament.  The Knights continue to fly under the radar and the oddsmakers haven’t even caught up with this team as they are 9-1 ATS their last 10.  The Big 10 is loaded this year which makes it tough to win on the road.  In fact, if you subtract the two worst teams (Nebraska & Northwestern) the top 12 teams in the conference have a record of 107-10 SU at home.  We really like Rutgers here and expect an easy cover.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON DePaul +9.5 over Villanova, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One

We’re getting some value here on DePaul because of their 0-3 start in the Big East.   Make no mistake this team is the best Blue Demon team in well over a decade.  Don’t forget this team won 12 of their first 13 games before their current 3 game losing streak.  They topped some very solid teams during that early run as well beating Iowa, Minnesota, and Boston College on the road and Texas Tech at home.  The Demons are 4-1 SU in their 5 road games this year with wins over some legit competition as we mentioned.  Their 4 losses this season have all been competitive with margins of 1, 5, 7, and 8 points.   Their 3 game Big East losing streak is nothing to be ashamed of as they took Seton Hall (the 2nd highest rated Big East team behind Butler) to the wire losing by 8 in a game the Demons led with 2:30 remaining in the game, an OT loss to a red hot Providence team, and then a 7 point loss @ St Johns over the weekend.  Nova is solid but nowhere near their National Championship caliber teams of a few years ago.  They are a young team with 2 freshmen & 2 sophomores in their top 6 rotation players.  Their defense has fallen way off this year ranking 74th in defensive efficiency after ranking in the top 13 nationally in that category each year from 2014 through last season.  They allow their opponents to shoot 44% on the season which ranks 246th.  DePaul is the much better defensive team so far this season allowing 38.8% which puts them on the top 40 in the nation.  The Wildcats are 3-1 in Big East play, however of their last 9 wins dating back to late February, 7 of those have come by 11 points or less, many against lower competition than they’ll be facing tonight vs DePaul.  Villanova is good, not great.  Facing a talented DePaul team in desperation mode, we just don’t see the Cats being able to pull away here.  It should be close throughout and we’ll take the Blue Demons plus the points.