ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -8.5 vs. Boston Celtics, Game 1 Thursday, 8:30 PM ET - I was watching Game 7 of the Heat/Celtics the other night and when it became obvious that the Heat were going to win, I started immediately thinking about Game 1 of the Finals. I actually said to my wife, if the playoff sporadic Celtics were favored by 10-points at home in Game 2 of that series that suggests the Nuggets should be favored by 12 in Game 1 given the circumstances. The Heat have played a gauntlet of brutally tough games/series and now must travel to the higher altitude of Denver to face a Nuggets team that has been off 9-days. Eventually, everyone’s legs will go for the Heat as they are not that deep to begin with. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Heat “sacrifice” Game 1 to try and steal Game 2. Teams with at least 7 days of extra rest are 4-1 SU in Game 1’s. The Heat were the 4th worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season but have miraculously shot over 43% in their series against the Bucks and Celtics. Miami has the 23rd EFG% in the NBA at 53.2% while Denver has the best overall EFG% at 57%. Denver had the 13th best EFG% defense, Miami own’s the 23rd worst. The Nuggets are undefeated at home in the playoffs with an average +/- of +12PPG. Denver was also a much better team defensively at home this season allowing just 1.107-points per possession (5th) during the regular season. Lastly, I typically don’t talk matchups, but the Nuggets have a decisive advantage with Nikola Jokic over anyone the Heat throw at him. Adebayo can’t match him in the post and can’t exploit him defensively on the perimeter. In fact, Joker is 10-2 SU lifetime versus Adebayo. Overall, the Nuggets have won 9 of the past 10 meetings over the last 5 seasons. We like Denver BIG in Game 1.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7 vs. Miami Heat, Game 7 @ 7:30 PM ET - Pressure! All the pressure now sits squarely on the Miami Heat as they have blown a 3-0 lead in this series and could potentially be the first team ever to lose a playoff series in that scenario. Last time out the shooting for both teams was the storyline. Boston couldn’t make a 3-pointer as they shot just 20% from Deep. They did, however, shoot 63% on 2-pointers and made 29 of 34 FT’s. Miami on the other hand shot 47% from beyond the arc but hit just 30% from inside the line. The added value in the line is also significant in this elimination game. The three previous games between these two teams in Boston had you laying -8.5, -10 and -8.5 points. I’m betting the Celtics have another shooting game as they did in Game 5 at home when they won by 13-points. The C’s shot 41% from the 3-point line in that game and own the 6th best 3PT% in the NBA. Would we be surprised to see Miami struggle to shoot again? No! The Heat were a bad shooting team all season long ranking 26th in team FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston at home and predict a Celtic win by 15.

ASA top play on Miami Heat +8 vs. Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - Boston may win this game but asking them to cover is too much. The Heat have clearly been the better team in this series overall and have largely outplayed Boston for the majority of the series. In the Celtics Game 4 win the Heat shot poorly at 44% overall and 25% from the 3-point line. The Heat had shot well in the previous 3 games by hitting over 52% from Deep in two of three games and over 46% in all three. Miami has the 2nd best average point differential in the NBA in the Playoffs at +4.7PPG which trails only the Nuggets at +8.3PPG. Miami is 5th in points allowed per possession in the postseason compared to the Celtics who rank 10th allowing 1.138PPP. Offensively the Celtics have a slight edge in the playoffs averaging 1.182-points per possession, but the Heat are right behind the at 1.170PPP. The Heat match up well with Boston which is why they’ve covered 5 of the last six meetings overall and 4 of the last five in Boston. We like the points here with Miami.

ASA top play on 10* LA LAKERS -3 vs. Denver Nuggets – Game 4 Monday, 8:30 PM ET - We're betting there is enough pride left in the Lakers locker room to come out with a motivated effort here to avoid getting embarrassed and swept in the Playoffs. The Lakers have outplayed the Nuggets for a majority of the games but have fallen victim to big runs by the Nuggets, like the 13-0 run in the 4th quarter of last game. The key to this game is the line value. This line is where the Game 3 number should have been so now, we get to back a L.A. team at the proper number. The Lakers were 30-19 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of nearly +5PPG. They shoot 48.1% overall at home and hold foes to 45.2%. Denver has not been a great road team this season with a 22-25 SU road record and an average differential of minus -2.1PPG. The Nuggets defense on the road has been suspect this season as they allow opponents to make 49.4% of their field goal attempts and give up 115.1PPG. As long as LeBron and Anthony Davis show up tonight we should be in a good position to win with the Lakers.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -8.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 2 at 8:30 PM ET - Don’t be intimidated by the number in this one. When the Heat faced the Bucks they were dogs by 9-points and 13-points in two of the games in Milwaukee. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. In Game 1 the Heat caught fire (no pun intended) by hitting 54% of their FG attempts and 52% of their 3-point attempts (16 of 31). As we previously reported, that won’t continue in Game 2 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the league and the Heat are 27th in the league 3PT% at 34.4%. We like Boston at home off that loss and predict a Celtic win by 15.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 1 8:30 PM ET - The value in the number tells us to back the Celtics at home in the opener. In the two games in Milwaukee that Giannis played in the Bucks were favored by 9-points and 13-points. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. These two teams split their regular season meetings with the favorite covering 3 of the four. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston by double-digits in the opener.

#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Padres have been slumping but they faced a tough road slate with 6 straight away games before this series started.  As for the Royals, their 4 most recent wins (before yesterday's 5-4 victory over here at San Diego) came against bad teams - White Sox and Athletics.  The White Sox and Oakland and Kansas City are 3 of the worst teams in the majors thus far this season.  Facing San Diego's ace Yu Darvish will quickly bring KC back to reality here and the Padres will break out of their slump tonight.  San Diego did win the first game of this series 4-0 and another big win should come here.  Darvish ranked 7th in the N.L. in strike outs last season!  He is piling up strikeouts again this season plus has allowed only 1 earned in 3 of his 4 home starts this season.  We are going action on pitchers here because the Royals are expected to start Carlos Hernandez (5.05 career ERA) but he will be more of an opener as he has been working out of the bullpen again this season and is unlikely to go more than 3 innings here.  That being said, KC may even use a different opener and then bring in Hernandez.  Either way, expect plenty of Royals bullpen in this one and that is good news for the Padres lineup as the KC bullpen has a team ERA of 4.86 so far this season which ranks among the worst in MLB.  Also, the Royals had lost 14 of last 18 road games before yesterday's rare win.  Speaking of rare, the Royals have struggled to build any momentum this season with their longest winning streak being 2 games.  Also, KC is 0-4 this year when off a 1-run win and they took yesterday's game by a 5-4 count.  26 of 31 Royals losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin and 85% of San Diego wins this season have been by a multi-run margin.  This game has home blowout written all over it.  We like the Padres on the run line in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 7 - We liked the Celtics to come out of the East before the Playoffs started and will back them here in this Game 7 over Philly. Examining the last game, the Celtics won despite a horrible game by Tatum. Jaylen Brown wasn’t great either with 17 points and 7 rebounds. In this situation it’s hard to back a Philadelphia team that will need a great James Harden, who has a penchant for not showing up in big games, to be just that…great. Embiid is obviously one of the best players in the game, but it will be hard for him to carry this team to the finish line. Boston had the 3rd best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers at home this season. Philly was 1st in DEFF on the road but 10th in OEFF away from home. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season and we don’t see them losing a third home game in this series to the 76ers.

#928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers have been slumping but they faced a tough slate while Royals actually have won 4 of 5 but the wins came against bad teams - White Sox and Athletics.  The White Sox and Oakland and Kansas City are 3 of the worst teams in the majors thus far this season.  Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will quickly bring KC back to reality here and the Brewers will break out of their slump tonight.  Burnes has been top notch this season ever since working out the kinks in his first two starts of the season.  Since that time, his ERA is 2.08 and he’s allowed just 20 hits in 30.1 innings of work while striking out 26!  The turnaround for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season!  Also, in his 2 starts vs Kansas City in his career, Burnes has pitched 12 innings, allowed 6 hits and struck out 18. We are going action on pitchers here because the Royals are expected to start Josh Taylor (6.55 ERA) but he could be more of an opener as he really has not been a starter much at any level in the minors nor at the MLB level.  That being said, KC may even use a different opener and then bring in Taylor.  Either way, expect plenty of Royals bullpen in this one and that is good news for the Brewers lineup as the KC bullpen has a team ERA of 5.11 so far this season which ranks among the worst in MLB.  Remember we mentioned above that Kansas City's recent wins have come against weaker foes and that certainly is worth noting because  Kansas City is a horrible 6-23 against teams with a winning record this season.  Also, the Royals have lost 10 of last 14 road games and they were in action yesterday while the Brewers were resting courtesy of an off day yesterday.  23 of 27 Royals losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin and 70% of Milwaukee wins this season have been by a multi-run margin.  This game has home blowout written all over it.  We like the Brewers on the run line in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -5.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7:30 PM ET - We were grateful for the Knicks win in the last game of this series, but the facts of the matter are the Heat have clearly been the better team overall. The oddmakers have obviously seen what we’ve seen as they’ve bumped this line higher than the previous two games in Miami. The home team has won 4 straight with a 3-1 ATS record. Going back further the host has won 7 of the last nine meetings. The last four wins by the home team have all come by 6+ points. New York was good away from home all season long but it’s obvious the Heat have “flipped a switch” in the postseason and are playing at another level. Miami is 32-15 SU at home on the season and have won 5 straight home playoff games. Even when you factor in the play in loss to the Hawks at home the Heat have an average +/- at home in the PO’s of +9PPG. The Heat have covered 7 of the last ten meetings with the Knicks on this floor and are also on a 4-0 ATS streak when coming off a loss. Miami is the tougher team and they finish this series tonight with a double-digit win over the Knicks.

#22 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers Puck Line (-1.5 goals +130) over Vegas Golden Knights, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - The Golden Knights lost goalie Laurent Brossoit to injury in Game 3 of this series.  Vegas then brought in Adin Hill and he was great in relief but the Knights' skaters really came out flying in that game and something seemed amiss with the Oilers all night long even though they were on home ice.  That said, now a still-recovering Brossoit (he also had hip surgery recently) will be getting the start for Vegas or Hill will be making the first post-season start of his NHL career.  There is a big difference between coming on in relief in a game in which your team also gets a big lead for you versus getting the start.  Hill would be entering this game with a 0-0 score of course and having plenty of time to think about making his first-ever playoff start, etc.  That is a much different "animal" per se and we know Edmonton is going to bring it on home ice here after the embarrassing Game 3 loss.  We like the Oilers no matter who is in goal here as the Knights have the injured Brossoit, first P/O start Hill, or rusty Jonathan Quick as their choices here.  The Oilers, when off a loss, are a perfect 7-0 the last 7.  As for laying the 1.5 goals here, the Oilers win in this series was by a 5-1 final at Vegas and BOTH their home wins in this post-season (against the Kings) were by multi-goal margins - 10 to 5 aggregate on those two games.  The Oilers, dating back to their red-hot close to the regular season as well, were 19-4 last 23 games before that Game 3 loss. This is bounce back time and we expect Edmonton to improve to 8-0 last 8 times when off a loss.  Of course the Oilers are a huge money line favorite for a reason and, that being said, we see a lot of value with the puck line in this one. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Edmonton for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - We will go back to the well with the Knicks in this elimination Game 5. New York was embarrassed in Game 3 as the Heat beat them by 19-points, then in Game 4 the Heat pulled another stunning road upset of the Knicks by 8. The Knicks shot poorly in Game 3 by hitting just 34% overall and 20% from Deep. Those numbers were well below their season averages of 47% and 35.4% and came against a Miami defense that was 22nd in both FG% D and 3PT% D. In Game 4 the Knicks played well throughout most of the game until the 4th quarter when they shot just 33% for the quarter and gave up 7 offensive rebounds in the final stanza. New York was one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA at 46.6 boards per game but have been out rebounded by 11 in the last two games. We expect that to change in this do-or-die situation at home and will back the small home favorite. New York is 13-6-1 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of 3-7-points. Miami as a dog in this same price range is 6-9 ATS.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -5 vs. Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The home team has won and covered all 4 meetings thus far in this series and we are betting that trend continues. In the first two games of this series the Nuggets dominated at home with an 18-point and 10-point win. The two games in Phoenix were relatively close and in the pivotal Game 3 the Suns won by 5-points despite shooting 57% overall and 45% from Deep. The Nuggets are 39-7 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of +10.2PPG. Phoenix is 19-26 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -0.9PPG. Denver was exceptional off a loss this season with a 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS record at home when coming off a defeat. The Nugs have covered 6 of their last seven at home and our computer simulator has them winning this game and getting a cover in the process.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks +4.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks have the right makeup to battle through adversity with a tough-minded defensive team and proven coach. New York was embarrassed in Game 3 as the Heat beat them by 19-points, but we like them to bounce back here. The Knicks shot uncharacteristically badly in Game 3 by hitting just 34% overall and 20% from Deep. Those numbers were well below their season averages of 47% and 35.4% and came against a Miami defense that was 22nd in both FG% D and 3PT% D. Miami was the benefactor of 31 free throw attempts to the Knicks 22 and the Heat made 28 of those attempts. Miami had an average +/- at home this season of just +1.2PPG which was 20th in the NBA. The Knicks average point differential on the road was 5th best in the league at +1.6PPG. This Knicks team found a way to win 2 road games in Cleveland in the 1st round and they’ll keep this game close to the final buzzer.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -3 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - The Lakers stole Game 1 of this series with a win on the Warriors home court. Anthony Davis had a monster 30-point 23-rebound game in that road victory for L.A. In a must-win situation the Warriors pounded the Lakers by 27-points after hitting 48 of 95 field goal attempts (51%) and going 21 of 42 from beyond the Arc (50%). AD didn’t show up for the Lakers in Game 2 with 11-points and 7-rebounds. With this series shifting to Los Angeles, we like the Lakers in Game 3 and expect a regression from the Warriors and their insane Game 2 shooting. The Lakers defense was significantly better after the All-Star break as they allowed the 9th fewest points per game in the league. Much has been made in regard to the Warriors horrible road record this season of 13-32 SU away from home. During the regular season the Warriors had the 24th worst average road differential at minus -4.3PPG. To put that into perspective, it was barely better than Orlando or Charlotte. The Lakers were better than average at home during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and an average +/- of +3.2PPG. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five in L.A. versus the Warriors and four straight games overall when coming off a loss. We expect the Warriors road woes to continue and will support the Lakers in Game 3.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 vs. Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - We actually like this game and number more with Chris Paul out of the game for the Suns. Paul is obviously a great player, but this just opens the door for KD and Booker to take over the game offensively for the Suns. Phoenix was handled in Games 1 and 2 in Denver but bounce back at home off those two embarrassing losses. KD was especially bad in Game 2 when he shot 10 of 27 overall, just 2 of 12 from Deep. As a team the Suns shot just 40% overall and 19% from beyond the Arc. We are betting they return to form offensively at home where they shot 47% overall and 38.5% from the 3-point line. As we mentioned in our previous wager on the Nuggets, they are great defensively at home but not so much on the road. Denver allowed 1.178-points per possession on the road this season which was 22nd in the NBA. They allowed opponents to shoot 49.3% when away from home and average 115.2PPG. Denver had a negative road differential of -3.1PPG which was also the 22nd worst number in the league. Phoenix was 9th in the NBA with an average margin of victory at home of plus +4.9PPG. The Suns get it done with a huge effort in this do-or-die situation and win by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. LA Lakers, 9 PM ET - We had the Lakers in Game 1 but will now side with Golden State at home in Game 2 off that loss. This isn’t spread related but the home team that has lost Game 1 of the series has now won 15 straight times in Game 2 after the Celtics big win last night over Philly in this same scenario. The Warriors have been really good off a loss this season with a 18-3 SU home record, 14-7 ATS spread record. Golden State is 35-10 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +7.1PPG which is the 5th best average in the NBA. The Lakers are 22-23 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.0PPG. L.A. won Game 1 by 5-points but also benefited from 29 free throw attempts compared to just 6 for the Warriors. The Warriors are 3-point reliant so they typically don’t shoot as many free throws as their opponents but the disparity in Game 1 will likely be more even in Game 2. The Warriors have covered 4 of their last five when coming off a loss and are in full desperation mode here. The Lakers did lose 2 of 3 games in Memphis with the two losses coming by double-digits. Back the Warriors in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 2 - We like the Celtics to bounce back at home and get a big win to even this series at 1-1. James Harden turned back the clock in Game 1, scoring 45 points on 17 of 30 shooting. Harden has a long history of underperforming in the Playoffs and it’s unlikely he can repeat that performance. As a team the 76ers shot 51% overall and 45% from beyond the Arc. I’m betting the Celtics defense will adjust and run the Sixers off the 3-point line in G2. Boston was the 3rd best defensive efficiency team in the NBA this season allowing just 1.115-points per possession. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season. Philly had some impressive road numbers but without Embiid they are not the same team. Boston is 19-9 SU off loss this season 10-5 SU at home. We like Boston big in this one.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors are off an emotional and physical 7-game series against the Kings which just finished on Sunday. Kerr relied heavily on his starters in that game with three (Curry, Wiggins and Green) all logging 37+ minutes. The Lakers have been off since Friday and will be well rested for this series opener. Los Angeles stole Game 1 from Memphis in the previous series and are more than capable of getting a W here. We will disregard the season statistics of the Lakers as they have been much better since the trade deadline, especially defensively. Since the All-Star Break the Lakers are allowing just 110.6PPG which is 7th best in the NBA. The Warriors are allowing an average of 113.7PPG which is 14th. The Warriors have been slightly better offensively since the ASB scoring 118.8PPG compared to 116.2PPG for L.A. The Warriors have great home numbers but given the circumstances of short rest versus the Laker 3-days rest we have to grab the points with the Underdog. The Lakers have won 3 of four meetings this season and 4 of the last six.

#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a top play for us regardless of the starting pitchers.  The Orioles have the #1 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 10-4 record and 2.86 ERA.  The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 3-5 record and 5.26 ERA.  Kansas City is an incredibly bad 1-12 in home games this season!  Baltimore is 12-3 in night games this season.  The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them.  This looks like a road rout as this one is a mismatch.  Note too that the Royals 22 losses this season have included 19 by at least a 2-run margin!  As for the pitching match-up here, Tyler Wells has a 2.79 ERA and a fantastic 0.72 WHIP!  The Orioles hurler has had great command of his pitches with 23 strikeouts against just 3 walks and opponents are hitting just .176 against him this season.  The Royals counter with Ryan Yarbrough but he had a 5.11 ERA two years ago.  Then he followed that up with a 3-8 mark and 4.50 ERA last season.  This season he is already a rough 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA!  In his last two appearances at home, Yarbrough has allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings.  Orioles enter this series with wins in 11 of 13 games.  Of 9 road wins (since winning their season opener by a single run) 8 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs.  This further adds to support for the run line here.  As for Kansas City, the Royals enter this series off a loss following a win.  What is interesting to note is the Royals have not had a standalone loss a single time this season.  Every loss leads to a losing streak.  KC has had losing streaks of 3 games 4 times, a 2 game losing streak, and a 7 game losing streak.  Look for this trend to continue here as the Royals 8-4 loss Sunday at Minnesota likely to be the start of yet another losing streak.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +110 money range with the Orioles.  Lay it! 

ASA NBA top play 10* on NY Knicks -4 vs. Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - We have waited patiently for the perfect opportunity to release a big play of this magnitude and today’s the day. The Miami Heat are coming off a stunning first round upset of the #1 seed Milwaukee Bucks. Jimmy Butler and head coach Erik Spoelstra carried the Heat to that series victory but now must face a very underrated Knicks team that is also coming off a big opening series win over the Cavaliers. Miami was one of the worst offensive efficiency teams in the league this season, ranking 25th. Butler cannot sustain his round 1 numbers of 37.6PPG against a Knicks team that is allowing just 1.031-points per possession in the Playoffs. Butler and the Heat don’t have the benefit of facing the Bucks head coach Budenholzer who is incapable of making adjustments in series. Tom Thibodeau of the Knicks is one of the best defensive minds in the NBA and he will have a game plan in place to limit Butler and force someone else to beat them. Let’s not under appreciate the Knicks round 1 domination over a very good Cavs team. The Knicks held the Cavs to 94.2PPG and both home wins were by 9 and 20-points. Miami was 30th in the league in scoring this season, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Knicks offensively were much better, and they have a defense that was 13th in PPG allowed, 3rd in opponents FG% and 12th in 3PT%. The biggest advantage the Knicks will have in this game and the series is rebounding. The Knicks were 8th in defensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 25th. New York was 3rd in offensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 23rd. Cleveland had comparable rebounding numbers as the Heat and the Knicks outrebounded them by a total of 41 rebounds. In the regular season the Knicks won 3 of four with the Heat and have covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points!

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -3 vs Phoenix Suns, 8:30 PM ET - We are going to tread lightly with Game 1 of this series but do like the Nugget enough to make a small wager on them here. The Nuggets are 37-7 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Phoenix wasn’t a great road team this season with a 17-24 SU record in the regular season with a +/- of minus -0.7PPG. Granted, they didn’t have Kevin Durant for the majority of those games, but they still clearly underperformed away from home. Denver had the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA at home at +1.205-points per possession. Overall, they weren’t a great defensive team, but when at home they were very good ranking 5th in DEFF allowing just 1.108PPP. Again, Phoenix was in the 12th and 13th in road OEFF and DEFF so good, but not elite. In the opener we like the home team minus the points.

ASA Top Play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:30 PM ET - We expect the Celtics to close this series out tonight in Atlanta. The Hawks won in Boston last time out and did it by shooting 47% overall and 46% from beyond the arc. Trae Young had a monster night with 38-points on 14 of 33 shooting. Boston has enjoyed a huge advantage with points in the paint this series and we full expect them to exploit that advantage again in this potential elimination game. The Celtics rank 4th in PPG scored, 14th in team FG%, 6th in 3PT% and 7th in rebounding. The Hawks have similar offensive numbers ranking 3rd in PPG, 9th in FG%, 21st in 3PT% and 10th in rebounding. The big separator comes defensively with the Celtics ranking 5th or better in PPG allowed, FG% D and 3PT% D. Atlanta allows the 26th most PPG, rank 25th in opponents FG% and 10th in 3PT%. Boston has done well when coming off a loss this season with a 18-9 SU overall record, 8-4 on the road. All 3 of the C’s wins in this series have come by 8 or more points. That trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - We like the home team to get a double-digit win in this critical Game 5. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home in the regular season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this regular season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams have met seven times this season with the home team winning six and all but one of those wins came by more than tonight’s spread. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis was up 7 points with just over 5 minutes to play in Game 4 and couldn’t close the game out. Memphis is 12-4 SU at home off a loss. Tonight, at home they will get it done.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The winner of this series will be the team that is the healthiest. Right now, that team is the Bucks, even with Giannis questionable tonight. Our insiders suggest that he will play tonight, even if he doesn’t, we like Milwaukee. The Heat lost Tyler Herro to a broken hand and just lost Victor Oladipo to a knee injury. That doesn’t seem like a big injury, but it will have an impact on their depth at the guard position. Jimmy Butler also went down with a lower back injury, and we expect him to play tonight but he certainly won’t be 100%. Most importantly for this game is the fact that the Bucks are really good when coming off a loss with a 19-7 SU record and a +4.2PPG average MOV. The Bucks had the second-best road record in the NBA this season at 26-16 SU, +0.9PPG. Miami did have a solid home record of 27-14 SU during the regular season but their average +/- was just +1.2PPG. The Heat really struggled offensively against good teams as they averaged just 109.8PPG which was 28th in the league. Milwaukee is a much deeper team and will find a way to get this ‘must win’ on the road in Miami.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +7.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 3:30 PM ET - We were on the Warriors in Game 3 but will flip and side with the Kings in Game 4. This line is inflated and value currently sides with the Kings when you evaluate the lines from the first two games. Granted, Draymond Green is back but the move in the line is too drastic. Sacramento shot just 38% from the field in Game 3, 23% from Deep. Those numbers are uncharacteristically low for the Kings who were 1st in scoring this season 2nd in overall FG% shooting and 9th in 3PT%. After jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the series it was only natural for them to come back to Earth in Game 3. Now we have a solid number, a team that was 21-13 SU off a loss this season and had the 4th best average road differential at +2.1PPG. Sacramento was the better team all season long and have covered 11 of the last 14 meetings in Golden State. This will be closer than the oddsmakers think.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - I think if you’ve followed us for any length of time you can guess how we feel about the Lakers and LeBron. If you haven’t, let’s just say we aren’t big fans. But that doesn't impact our handicapping and tonight we have to back the Lakers at home minus the short number. This series is tied 1-1 and Anthony Davis and LeBron haven’t even played that well. Back at home in Game 3 we expect big games from both of these Super Stars. Since the trade deadline the Lakers have been much better, especially defensively as they have allowed just 111.8PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. Over that same period of time, they have an average +/- of nearly +5PPG. Memphis has struggled on the road this season with a 16-25 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.7PPG. The Lakers don’t have a great home record of 24-18 SU but they do have a solid +/- of +3.3PPG. The home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings and we expect that trend to carry over here. Lay the points.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - It’s well documented that Golden State is 11-32 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA, so while I’m surprised, they are down 0-2 I’m not shocked. The venue changes though and now the Warriors are at home where they had the 5th best average MOV at +8.0PPG with a 33-8 SU record. Consider this, the Warriors were 17th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.108PPP, but at home they rank 4th allowing 1.060PPP. Golden State was 9th overall in OEFF and had the 9th best overall OEFF at home but there was an improvement from 1.123PPP to 1.137PPP. Golden State has covered 4 of their last six games when coming off a loss and own a 17-3 SU home record when off a beat. These two teams have similar offensive statistics, but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. The Kings held an edge in FT’s at home 47-36 with +16 more attempts. That changes with the Warriors now the home team. Golden State has covered 37 of their last 51 home games against a team with a winning road record. Even without Draymond Green we like the Warriors by double-digits in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics, even without Ja Morant in the lineup and we like the home team to get a win in Game 2 and even the series. In Game 1 the Lakers got some huge contributions from Hachimura and Reaves who chipped in 29 and 23 points respectively. The Lakers shot unusually well at 53% overall and 43% from beyond the arc which are both well above their season averages. Not to mention, the Grizzlies had the #1 ranked FG% defense and 9th best 3PT% defense in the league this year. Expect a return to normal in Game 2. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis is 35-7 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at over +10PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers are 21-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times during the regular season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 9 meetings with the Lakers at home. Grab the home team!

#58 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals +140) over Seattle Kraken, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - Every single game between these teams in the regular season was won by the road team as the visitors won all 3. Also, all 3 were decided by just a single goal. So why this play? It is because now the post-season has arrived and the cream rises to the top and we look for Avalanche and their post-season experience plus home ice edge to help lead the way to a big win here over a Seattle club in the post-season for the first time. The Kraken lost their final two games of the regular season each by a multi-goal margin. There were tight games in yesterday's first day of playoff action but the Kraken have had 11 straight games decided by a multi-goal margin and we like Colorado here. The Avalanche have won 8 of last 10 playoff games on home ice.  Home team in a blowout per our computer math model as the Avalanche carry their post-season confidence and dominance from last year right into the post-season. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Colorado for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -7.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Clippers played as well as they could in the opener and stole Game 1 in Phoenix. Tonight, we are betting the Suns will bounce back with a double-digit home win. Statistically the game was very even with the exception being offensive rebounding. The Clippers grabbed 15 O-Boards compared to just 6 for the Suns. These two teams were similar offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings this season with the Suns 14th and the Clippers 16th. In defensive efficiency the Suns ranked much better in defensive efficiency at 7th compared to the Clippers at 17th. The Suns got off to a slow start in G1 but expect a different mindset to open Game 2. Phoenix had the 7th best 3PT% numbers in the league this season without Kevin Durant playing many games for them and they should exploit a Clippers defense that was 19th in opponents 3PT% defense. Lay it with Phoenix.

ASA top play on Golden State Warriors -1 @ Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - We are not neglecting the fact Golden State was 11-31 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA. It looked to us like the Warriors went into Game 1 of this series with the mentality of just showing up would be good enough to win the game. The Kings on the other hand played at an incredible level throughout the game and were inspired by the energy from their home crowd. DeAaron Fox had a monster game for the Kings with 38-points and 5-assists. Malik Monk chipped in with 32 and went 14 of 14 from the free throw line. As a team the Kings shot 45% overall, 38% from 3 and made 26 of 32 FT’s. Despite playing at a high level the Warriors still had several great looks late in the game that could have sent it to OT. A Championship team like the Warriors will respond after that loss. Golden State has covered 4 of their last five games when coming off an “L”. These two teams have similar offensive statistics but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. We mentioned the Warriors poor regular season road number but also note the Kings are 4-7 SU with a negative +/- of -5.3PPG as a home underdog. Elite teams bounce back off a loss! Back the Warriors.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. LA Lakers, 3 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics and we like the home team to get a double-digit win in the opener. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times this season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 8 meetings with the Lakers at home. Lay the points!

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings Pick'em vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - This is one of those fishy lines the oddsmakers will set to bait you into betting the media team such as the Warriors. Who isn’t betting the Warriors as a pick’em against the downtrodden Kings? The facts of the matter are this. The Kings have been the better team all season long and everyone has been waiting for the Warriors to ‘flip the switch’ and be great this season but it hasn’t happened. Golden State was 11-30 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA which was barely better than Orlando. Sacramento was 23-18 SU at home on the season with a +3.2PPG MOV. Both teams are good offensively with the Kings holding the #1 rated offensive efficiency numbers at 1.195PPP while the Warriors were 8th. Golden State held the season long advantage in defensive efficiency but they still ranked 18th compared to the Kings at 25th. The Kings may not win the series but we expect them to open up with a win in Game 1.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +6 over Miami Heat, 7 PM ET - I have had a hard time trusting Miami all season long and I’m certainly not going to back them here. Its not a coincidence that after any extended period of time teams with Jimmy Butler eventually regress which is the current state in Miami. This Heat team had a net point differential of -0.3PPG on the season which was 21st in the league. Miami was 27-14 SU at home but their +/- on their home court was +1.2PPG which was 20th and only better than the Wolves of all the playoff teams. In comparison the Bulls had a average margin of victory of +1.3PPG overall which was 13th best in the league. On the road the Bulls +/- was -0.3PPG which was 7th best in the NBA. Chicago has won all three meetings this season and all 3 wins have come by 8+ points. Grab the points with Chicago and expect another game to the wire.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to grab the points with the Bulls in this match up and an outright win would not surprise us. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive efficiency numbers on the season with the Raptors slightly better offensively, but the Bulls have an edge defensively. When it comes to home/road numbers we like the fact that the Bulls had the 7th best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at -0.3PPG. Toronto was 27-14 SU at home on the season but their average point differential was +4.7PPG which won’t get a cover for them here. After the All-Star break the Bulls have allowed just 107.9PPG which is the best number in the league. Chicago has also averaged 113.2PPG since the break which is significantly better than the 111.7PPG the Raptors have averaged. The Bulls have shot 50% since the ASB, Toronto has shot .464%. That ties in nicely with the Bulls having an advantage offensively with the 4th best overall shooting offense in the league going up against a Raptors D that is 27th in FG% defense. This is a great chance to back a defensive dog and a little moneyline action might be worth a shot in this one.

ASA NBA Top Play 10* New Orleans +3.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 PM ET - This game has meaning for both clubs and we like the advantage the Pelicans have in the schedule and how they are playing overall at this time. Minnesota is coming off a game yesterday and even though they have winning record at 8-5 SU when playing without rest, their average margin of victory in those games is 1-point, which is not enough for a cover here. New Orleans is on a solid 9-2 SU streak with several impressive wins on that resume including New York, Memphis, the Clippers twice and Denver. The Pelicans have won 4 of their last five road games. These two teams have some similar statistics offensively, but defensively the Pelicans hold the advantage and that will be the difference in today’s game. The Wolves +/- at home this season was 22nd in the league at +0.8PPG. The Pelicans had the 10th best road differential at 1.1PPG. This visiting team has covered 7 of the last eight meetings in this series and 8 of the last ten. Grab the points and the Pels.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8:40 PM ET - We went against the Kings last night and lost but will come right back with a play against them again here. This will be the Kings 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days. Last night they unexpectedly played hard against the Pelicans but reports are that head coach Mike Brown came down on them hard after a loss in their previous game. Now that he made his point, and they have nothing to play for, don’t expect them to put forth a max-effort here. Dallas is in desperation mode after 3 straight losses to playoff teams from the East. The Mavs are currently in a battle with the Thunder for the 10th and final play-in spot in the West with just 3 games remaining. These two teams have met twice already this season splitting both games played in Sac-Town. Luka and Kyrie are both expected to play on Wednesday night, and even though they haven’t meshed on the court at the same time they are still two dynamic players that can carry their team in this do-or-die situation.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - This game has huge implications for the Pelicans who are in a battle for the 7th seed in the West, while the Kings sit comfortably in 3rd. Granted the Kings mathematically have a shot to catch Memphis for the 2nd seed, but they can’t get caught by Phoenix and the 3 seed may be a better option in the West. The Pelicans on the other hand would host as a 7 seed and would have a clear advantage come playoff time. That’s not the only reason we like New Orleans here as they are playing well right now having won 7 of their last 8 games. That stretch of success includes three quality wins over the Clippers (twice) and Nuggets. The Pelicans suffered through several key injuries this season but are now mostly healthy and playing at the level everyone predicted they could play at. Since the All-Star break the Pel are allowing the least amount of points in the NBA at 108.3PPG and have a +/- of +4PPG. The Kings have been a great story all season, but their lack of defense will be their demise in the playoffs. The Kings rank 23rd for the season in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.167PPP. Since the All-Star break Sacramento is giving up 120.3PPG which is the 25th most in the NBA. Even with significant injuries the Pelicans still hold the 8th best average net point differential at home this season at +5.5PPG with a 25-13 SU record. The home teams has won 4 of the last five meetings and we are betting that trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - There is one negative with this bet and that’s the fact the Bucks are coming off a humiliating loss at home to the Celtics and we typically shy away from this type of situation. We will make an exception here as we get a live dog in Philly that is every bit as good as Milwaukee and can certainly come out of the East. Milwaukee has a 30-8 SU home record this season but the 76ers are 23-15 SU away. The Sixers own the best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at +3.8PPG. They have the best offensive efficiency rating on the road and 11th best DEFF. Milwaukee has an average +/- at home of +6.8PPG but that should be higher based on their SU record. We like the fact that the Bucks have struggled recently with the good teams they’ve played with a 1-8 ATS record their last nine games against teams with an above .600 winning percentage. When facing one of the top 8 teams in the Eastern Conference the Bucks have a +0.4PPG differential, the 76ers are better at +1.8PPG. 4 of the last five meetings have been decided by 3-points or less, all five have been decided by 8-points or less. We expect another close game and will grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 @ Denver Nuggets, 10 PM - We will try our hand with the Pelicans again tonight as a big dog in Denver. The Pelicans had won 5 straight games before blowing a game in Golden State on Tuesday. New Orleans led by 20-points in that game before succumbing to the Warriors in an 11-point loss. The Nuggets have won 4 straight and are coming off a big win over the 76ers on Tuesday night. Denver has a 3-game lead over the Grizzlies for the top spot in the West so they don’t have the sense of urgency the Pelicans have who sit 8th. Denver has one of the best offenses in the NBA but are average in terms of defensive efficiency. The Pels on the other hand have been very good defensively allowing 1.124-points per possession which rank 5th best in the league. These two teams met in late January with the Nuggets winning two tight games by 1-point and by 9-points. Brandon Ingram for the Pels did not play in either of those games which makes a big difference here. Grab the points.

#665 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB -1.5 over North Texas, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Both being from Conference USA, these 2 met 3 times this season with UNT winning 2 of those games. However, one of those wins for the Mean Green came without UAB’s top player Jordan Walker, in the lineup. Walker is the key for UAB as he leads the team in scoring at 22 PPG while averaging over 4 assists per game. In their other 2 games vs UNT with Walker in the lineup, UAB lost in double OT on the road by 3 points despite making only 3 FT’s with the Mean Green making 23 freebies. The other meeting was in the CUSA tourney and UAB dominated more than their 76-69 win would indicate. UAB led by 20 in that game (UNT never led) and the Blazers were ahead by double digits for 18 of the 20 minutes in the 2nd half. That was the most recent meeting only a few weeks ago on March 10th. While North Texas has a top notch defense (18th in efficiency) the UAB offense has seemed to figure out how to attack them. In the 3 games vs UNT, the Blazers shot a combined 45.2% vs a team that allowed 39% on the season. The Mean Green shot just 41% combined in those 3 games. In the last 2 meetings with Walker on the court, UAB averaged 1.13 and 1.11 PPP vs a team that has allowed 0.94 PPP this year. In their NIT semi final games, North Texas never led vs Wisconsin until 2 minutes remaining in the game. They won by just 2 points despite the fact the Badgers didn’t score a single point in the final 9 minutes of the game. The Blazers beat a very solid Utah Valley team in OT but they led for much of the game while UVU’s largest lead was 2 points. Since Walker returned from injury, the Blazers are 14-2 with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida Atlantic (in the NCAA Final 4) and this North Texas team in OT. UAB is a veteran team with 5 senior starters that is playing at the top of their game right now. UNT is not at 100% with starting center Ousmane not in Las Vegas due to a personal situation. While his back up Sissko has played well, Ousmane will be missed here as he had solid games in the 3 meetings vs UAB with 34 points and 17 rebounds combined in those games. At full strength we have UAB as the better team and we’ll lay the small number in the NIT Championship Game.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -4 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Knicks AND fade the Heat. Miami is coming off a big game last night in Toronto and now face a rested Knicks team in New York. Not to mention these same two rivals just met in South Beach last week with the Heat winning 127-120 as a +2-point dog. The Knicks may be without Jalen Brunson, but the Heat are without Jimmy Butler. The Knicks rate advantages both offensively and defensively over the Heat, especially on the offensive end of the court. Miami is 30th in scoring, 26th in shooting and 27th in 3PT%. In comparison the Knicks are 14th in scoring, 3rd in team FG% and 9th in 3PT%. New York has a +4.3PPG average differential at home, the Heat have a negative -2.4PPG differential away from home. In this quick rematch we like the home team by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - We have had a tough time figuring this Pelicans team out at times this season but today is a perfect opportunity to back them as a sizable dog. New Orleans has quietly gone on a 5-game winning streak and have 7 W’s in their last 10 games. They recently beat the Clippers in LA as a +5-point dog. The Pelicans are 13-24 SU on the road this season but their average point differential away from home is a respectable minus -2.4PPG. Golden State is clearly one of the best home teams in the NBA at 30-8 SU with a +7.6PPG differential, but that number is down from last year’s number of +9.9PPG. The last time these teams met in early March, the Warriors were favored by -5-points and won by 9. Golden State has slipped defensively this season as they allow 117.7PPG which ranks them 23rd. The Pelicans defense gives up 112.7PPG which ranks them 12th. This is an inflated pointspread and the value clearly lies with the underdog Pelicans.

#664 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB -2.5 over Utah Valley State, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - UAB is a veteran team with 5 senior starters that is playing at the top of their game right now. They were without their best player, Jordan Walker, for 5 games in mid January and since he returned the Blazers are 13-2 with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida Atlantic (in the NCAA Final 4) and North Texas in OT (in the NIT Final 4). They were FAVORED by 2 points in their loss in the CUSA Championship game vs FAU and now laying basically the same number vs Utah Valley State. Since February 1st, which coincides with Walker’s return from injury, UAB ranks as the 23rd most efficient team in college basketball ranking in the top 35 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are coming off a very impressive 8 point road win @ Vanderbilt who was on a huge roll winning 12 of their previous 14 games including wins over Kentucky (twice), Tennessee, Auburn, and Michigan during that stretch. The Blazers won that game on the road by a solid margin despite taking 11 fewer shot attempts and making only 2 of 15 (13%) from beyond the arc. UAB was tested in what was a much better conference than most anticipated. Conference USA has a team in the Final 4 (FAU), 2 teams in the NIT Final 4 (UNT & UAB) and Charlotte won the CBI tournament. UVU was the top team in the WAC this season along with Sam Houston State. Those were the only 2 teams ranked inside the top 100 per KenPom and they finished just 1 game apart in league play with UVU winning the conference. Interestingly, Sam Houston State was also in the NIT and played UNT from Conference USA and got destroyed by 20 points. Just something to make note of as we rate North Texas and UAB very close overall. Utah Valley made it to Vegas by topping Cincinnati 74-68 at home. The Wolverines had a huge edge at the line in that game attempting 19 more FT’s than the Bearcats. These 2 have very comparable, solid defenses, but UAB is more efficient offensively (1.12 PPP to 1.08 PPP) and they’ll have the best player on the floor in Walker. The Blazers should get plenty of extra opportunities as they are a great offensive rebounding team (8th nationally) facing a UVU team that ranks outside the top 200 in defensive rebounding. UAB also creates turnovers at a high rate (19%) while the Wolverines turn the ball over a lot (19%). We like UAB to cover this short number on Tuesday.

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic -2 vs Brooklyn Nets, 6:10 PM ET - The Orlando Magic catch the Nets in a favorable scheduling situation as Brooklyn is playing the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in 4 days. Meanwhile the Magic have been off since the 23rd. Orlando likes to play fast and will dictate tempo here as the rested home team. The Magic are averaging 100.1 possessions per game over their last five games which is 6th fastest in the NBA. Brooklyn has faced a gauntlet of playoff caliber teams in Miami, the Cavaliers twice, Denver and Sacramento so the mental and physical fatigue will catch up to them here. Orlando clearly hasn’t quit on the season as they’ve won 3 of their last four games and also played the Suns and Lakers well in 6-point and 3-point road losses. Orlando has covered 5 straight games overall.

ASA top play on: Texas -4 vs. Xavier, 9:45 PM ET - Texas is a team very capable of winning it all this year, Xavier is not. The Longhorns come from the best conference in the country and have played the 7th toughest schedule this season. Despite playing their brutal schedule the Horns rank 15th in offensive efficiency at 1.164-points per possession. Defensively they rank 10th allowing just .917PPP. They are top 56 in both offensive and defensive EFG%. Texas is 16-6 SU their last 22 games and the six losses came on the road in a hostile Big 12 environment. Xavier has a pair of unimpressive wins to get here as they beat Kennesaw State and a play in team in Pittsburgh. The Musketeers have the 7th most efficient offense in college hoops and are 62nd defensively. Our metrics tell us their strength of schedule isn’t as good some experts may suggest. They have some early season losses to Indiana, Duke and Gonzaga. As we mentioned, Xavier has solid defensive efficiency numbers but they did allow 74.5PPG on the season which ranked them 305th. Texas had a +10.6 average scoring differential which was 11th in the nation. We predict a double-digit win here.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +11.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:10 PM ET - These teams have met twice this season and it’s evident the Pacers match up well with the Celtics. Indiana won here in late December as a +9.5-point underdog and then took the C’s to overtime and lost by 4-points in late February. The current injury report says Pacers All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton should be ready to go against Boston Friday night. Indiana has 3 quality road wins on their resume in their last ten games as they won at Chicago, in Milwaukee and at Toronto. The Pacers have a 9-3 ATS record when tabbed a dog of +7.5 or more points. Boston is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA, but they are coming off a long 6-game West Coast Road trip and have lost 2 of their last three at home. Boston’s average home differential is impressive at +9PPG but that’s not enough to get a cover here. Indiana is the desperate team here fighting for the 10th spot and play in game in the East. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 10:30 PM ET - Even with the loss of Paul George we have to back the home team Clippers who are playing with immediate revenge after losing to OKC 100-101 on Tuesday. Typically, in games like this when a key starter goes out, the role players step up given the opportunity. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last seven games and are starting to play well with Russell Westbrook in the lineup. The Thunder have put together a fantastic season with a 36-36 record and they have won 8 of their last ten games but it’s going to be tough to beat a team the caliber of the Clippers twice in their own joint, in consecutive games. The Clippers average margin of victory against .500 or less teams this season is +6PPG and they still have a very capable Kawhi Leonard on the roster. The home team has won 9 of the last ten meetings and we like that trend to continue here.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +1.5 vs. Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - This is a meaningful game for both teams as the Suns are fighting for the 4 seed in the West, which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs, while the Lakers are just trying to get in. Los Angeles has been MUCH better defensively with LeBron out of the lineup as they are allowing just 110.5PPG since the All-Star break. That’s significantly lower than the 118.2PPG (25th in NBA) prior to the break. The Suns defense has slipped a little since the break and are giving up +2 more PPG than they did pre-All-Star break. The Suns will be without their starting center Deandre Ayton who can defend Anthony Davis for the Lakers. Without Ayton the Suns don’t have an answer for AD who is capable of carrying this Lakers team (five 30-point games in last ten). The Suns aren’t a great road team at 15-21 SU away with a negative -0.6PPG differential. The Lakers have an average +/- at home of plus nearly 3PPG. Both teams need a win, but the Lakers are the more desperate team here.

ASA top play on 10* Vanderbilt pick’em over UAB, 7 PM ET - We have to side with Jerry Stackhouse and the Commodores at home against the UAB Blazers. Vandy finished the season strong with 12 wins in 14 games and just survived a scare against Michigan. The Dores have several impressive wins on their resume with 2 over Kentucky, they beat Tennessee, Florida twice, Mississippi State and Auburn. The overall schedule strength of Vandy is 32nd in the nation and they still have impressive efficiency numbers, ranking 24 in OEFF and 148 in DEFF. UAB is no slouch and have played extremely well themselves with 14 wins in their last sixteen games but 12 of those were against teams ranked outside of the top 100 per Ken Pom. In fact, 6 of those W’s came against teams ranked 200th or worse. Vandy was 14-5 SU at home in the tough SEC, UAB was 6-5 SU away.

ASA top play 10* on #607 UW Milwaukee +6 vs. Charlotte, 7:30 PM ET - Charlotte has a bit of an advantage having played Saturday while UWM is coming off a game Sunday versus Stetson. These two teams have contrasting styles of play as Milwaukee is 12th in the nation in tempo or pace while Charlotte is one of the slowest at 362. We are fine if Charlotte gets the tempo they want as the dog in a low possession game is always attractive. These two teams come into this post season with different results as the UWM Panthers finished the season on a 3-1 streak after losing to Cleveland State in the Horizon League Tournament. Charlotte on the other hand lost two straight heading into the CUSA Tourney then lost to Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers had played another team from the Horizon earlier this season in Detroit Mercy, who finished 5 games below UWM in conference play, and lost by 21 and won by 2 in OT. The Panthers beat Detroit Mercy twice this season. Charlotte averages 67PPG which makes covering a number as large as 6-points difficult. The 49ers average +/- on the season is +4.1PPG, UW Milwaukee has a +/- of +4.5PPG. The Panthers stay hot and keep this one within the margin.

#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +1.5 over Baylor, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Blue Jays as a slight favorite so we’re getting some value here. Both of these teams played very difficult schedules this season (Baylor 5th SOS / Creighton 13th SOS) and the Jays have the better overall efficiency margin. While both teams average right around 77 PPG, Baylor has a slight edge in offensive efficiency and Creighton has a slight edge in eFG%. These 2 are close offensively. Defensively the Blue Jays are much better this season. They rank 14th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP while Baylor ranks 99th allowing 1.01 PPP. The Bears rank 232nd in eFG% allowed and inside the arc they have been poor defensively ranking 315th. They are, and have been, the worst defense in the Big 12 for the entire season. Struggling to defend inside isn’t a great recipe vs Creighton with 7’1 Kalkbrenner in the middle. Yesterday vs NC State, he was 10 of 13 inside the arc and scored 31 points. Creighton made 64% of their shots inside the arc and should have lots of success again in that area. On the other side, Baylor pretty much relies on the 3 point shot and getting to the FT line. They get very little inside the arc with only 42% of their points which is 358th nationally. Creighton is solid at defending the 3 point line only 13% of their opponents points come from the FT line (3rd least in the country). Baylor will really need to hit a high percentage of triples to win this game in our opinion. We’ll take the better defense and the offense that can score inside and out to win this one. Creighton is the call.

#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin -3 over Liberty, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Our concern with Wisconsin in the NIT is would they come with intensity for a program that had been in the NCAA tourney 22 of the previous 23 years. They answered that question last Tuesday rolling over a solid Bradley team by 19 points. The same Bradley team that won the Missouri Velley regular season title over Drake who went to the Dance and nearly upset Miami FL. The Badgers are definitely battle tested playing the 15th most difficult schedule in the country this season. They were just a few plays from comfortably making the NCAA tourney. 5 of their last 6 losses came by 2 points or less or in OT and that was vs a tough Big 10 schedule. Some of their tight losses this year including Kansas in OT, Purdue by 2, Northwestern by 2 & 3 points, Michigan State by 4, and Rutgers by 1. This team seem re-energized last Tuesday as if a stressful weight was lifted off their shoulders. They scored 81 points, their 2nd highest total this season, vs a Bradley defense that ranked #1 in the MVC (efficiency). Liberty had a big win over Villanova which we feel is keeping this line a bit lower than it really should be. It was a 5 point win, however Nova played the game without arguably their 2 best players, Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore. On top of that, Liberty was +7 from the FT line and made 10 three pointers to just 4 for the Wildcats. Thus, the Flames outscored Villanova by 25 points from the FT line + 3 point range and only won by 5. Prior to beating the Wildcats minus their 2 top players, Liberty had played a grand total of 3 teams this season ranked in the top 100 and lost all 3 by double digits. With this line set slow low, we’re really just looking for Wisconsin to win at home and we like them to get it done on Sunday.

#803 ASA TOP PLAY ON Duke -3 over Tennessee, Saturday at 2:40 PM ET - Duke is playing fantastic basketball right now. They’ve won 10 in a row and ran through the ACC tourney rather easily winning 3 games by an average of 15 points per game vs Pitt, Miami, and UVA, all NCAA tourney teams. The Devils then destroyed a solid Oral Roberts team (won by 23) who came into the game with a 30-4 record and a team many thought had a chance to make some waves in this tournament. Since February 1st, this Duke team is rated as the 9th most efficient team in the country and prior to that they were ranked 30th (per Bart Torvik stats). This team is definitely trending in the right direction. Tennessee not so much. They’ve lost 7 of their last 13 games after starting 18-3 and they struggled to beat Louisiana in round one winning by 3 points. Defensively the Vols have remained solid all season but their offense has fallen off a cliff the 2nd half of the season. Since February 1st, Tennessee is ranked outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency and they are now playing without starting PG Zeigler who was their 2nd leading scored and averaged over 5 assists per game along with being their best perimeter defender. Pretty much the opposite of Duke, the Volunteers were ranked #1 nationally in efficiency from the start of the season through the end of January and they’ve dropped to 30th since then. Over their last 5 games Tennessee is scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 65 PPG. For the season on defense they allow 37% shooting and just 26% from deep but over their last 5 that numbers have increased to 43% and 36%. Meanwhile Duke is winning by an average of 15 PPG over their last 5 shooting 49% and allowing 35%. Two teams trending in opposite directions and we’ll take the hot, confident team. Duke is the play.

#798 ASA TOP PLAY ON TCU -5.5 over Arizona State, Friday at 10 PM ET - Rough spot for ASU in this game having just played in Dayton 48 hours ago they are now set for a game in Denver. TCU has been off since last Friday so they should be ready to go in this one. We really liked this Horned Frogs team all season as long as they were healthy. They lost their top player Mike Miles for a stretch of 5 games in early February and went 1-4 in those contests. They were also missing starting forward Peavy for 5 games just prior to Miles going down. When this team was healthy they destroyed Kansas on the road, beat Baylor on the road, topped Texas, and took 2 of 3 from Kansas State all top 3 seeds in this NCAA tourney. They gave a red hot Texas team all they could handle in the Big 12 tourney losing by just 6. This is a very deep Horned Frog team that ranks 13th nationally in bench minutes which should come in handy in the high altitude in Denver facing a Sun Devil team that could be fatigued after playing in the eastern time zone 48 hours ago. ASU is coming off an unreal offensive performance on Wednesday beating Nevada 98-73. As you can expect the Devils shot WAY above their season averages hitting 64% of their shots (they average 42%) and 52% of their 3’s (they average 31%). Despite that effort, this is not a good shooting team ranking outside the top 315 in both 2 point and 3 point FG%. They now face a rested TCU defense that ranks 21st nationally in defensive efficiency and 20th at defending the arc. TCU has played the tougher schedule (11th SOS / USC has played 37th SOS) and despite that the Frogs have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court. Lay it with TCU.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -6 vs. Washington Wizards, 7:40 PM ET - The Cavs are clearly an elite team in the NBA and we like the situation with them coming off a loss at home against the 76ers. Washington had lost 3 straight games, then beat the lowly Pistons 117-97. Both of these offenses have similar statistics when it comes to scoring, shooting and 3-point percentages. The biggest difference is defensively as the Cavs allow just 1.105-points per possession (2nd best) compared to the Wiz who allow 1.148PPP (19th). The Cavaliers have the 4th best average point differential at home at +8.7PPG to go with a 28-8 SU record. Washington is 16-20 SU away from home on the year with a negative differential of minus -0.4PPG. The Cavs are 10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS at home when coming off a loss this season. Cleveland has beaten the Wizards twice this season with both wins coming by 10 or more points. That trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 7:40 PM ET - We went against the Kings last night and lost a tough one with Chicago. The Bulls shot poorly at 39%, which is well below their season average and still only lost by 3-points. Tonight, the Kings are going to have a tough time on the second night of a back to back. This is also Sacramento’s 5th game in an 8-day span. Last night the Kings starters Sabonis logged 40 minutes, Barnes played 35+ and Fox was on the floor for nearly 33-minutes. Fatigue will be a factor in this game! Brooklyn is 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS their last seven games and are coming off a disappointing loss in OKC on Tuesday. The Nets own the 4th best overall team FG% offense and rank 4th in 3PT%. They should be able to exploit a tired Kings team that ranks 29th in opponents FG% and 25th in 3PT% defense. This isn’t as much a play on the Nets, but more of a play against the Kings. The revenge angle also helps here as Nets allowed over 150 in ugly loss at Sacramento earlier this season. Perfect spot for a play against the Kings!

#738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -5 over College of Charleston, Thursday at 3:10 PM ET - C of C will be a very popular underdog play on Thursday as they step into this game with a 31-3 record. That’s an impressive run for sure, however the Cougars have played a very easy schedule this season – ranked 305th strength of schedule. They have played ONE top 100 team since late November and they lost that game at home vs Hofstra. The Cougs didn’t waltz through their conference tourney erasing a 2nd half deficits in both games to win close vs UNC Wilmington and Towson. San Diego State will be by far the best team they’ve faced this season. Meanwhile, SDSU has played the 34th most difficult schedule this season facing 20 opponents currently ranked in the top 100 per KenPom. The Aztecs were 11-6 vs Quad 1 & 2 opponents this season while C of C was 2-1. The Cougars are a deep team that rotates 10 players to wear opponents down and they shoot a bunch of 3’s (37% of their points come from beyond the arc – 28th nationally). The problem here is, they aren’t a great 3 point shooting team (210th nationally in 3 point FG%) and they won’t be able to wear down a deep and talented Aztec team (30th in bench minutes). SDSU is also a fantastic defense ranked 10th in the country in efficiency and 7th in 3 point FG% allowing opponents only 29% from deep. By comparison, the Cougs have ONE defense ranked in the top 100 in their conference, the Colonial. That was UNCW who ranks 97th and played C of C in the conference championship game and held them to 0.98 PPP and just 23% from deep in a very close Cougar win. If we look at the KenPom ratings, C of C would rank 6th in the MWC, a conference San Diego State won by 2 full games. The conference records of these 2 teams was almost identical despite playing in much tougher league. SDSU finished 18-3 in the Mountain West (6th best conference) and College of Charleston finished 19-2 in the Colonial (26th best conference) – conference tournament wins included. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, the Aztecs had a +20.2 PPP margin this season while the Cougars were +11.8. We like the value with San Diego State vs the popular underdog.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - We like this Kings team and hope they make some noise in the Playoffs but today we are on the home team Bulls as a small dog. We like the scheduling advantage for the Bulls who have been off since last Saturday. The Kings have faced a brutal schedule of late with games 13 straight games against teams in the Playoff hunt. They are coming off a big game against the Eastern Conference leading Bucks. The big difference between these two teams is defense. Chicago owns the 6th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.128-points per possession. With the new addition of defensive minded Pat Beverly they are allowing 1.103PPP in their last three games. Sacramento has the 3rd worst DEFF allowing 1.209PPP on the season and 1.230PPP in their last three games. Granted, the Kings have a decided edge offensively, but given the scheduling we like the home defensive dog. Chicago’s 9th ranked FG percentage defense can limit the Kings 2nd best shooting offense. Sacramento ranks 29th in FG% defense and the Bulls are the 5th best shooting team in the league at 49%. Back the Bulls!

#713 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UCF +3.5 over Florida, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - One thing we know for sure is UCF is jacked for this game. They haven’t faced the state big boy since the 2012/13 season and the motivated Knights are good enough to pull the upset here. Central Florida had a disappointing season finishing 8-10 in the AAC despite ranking as the 4th best team per KenPom behind only Houston, Memphis, and Cincinnati. This team is better than their overall 18-14 record would indicate. Their adjusted efficiency margin was +12.6 points per 100 possessions which would indicate their record should be better than it is. They are solid on both ends of the court ranking in the top 90 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Golden Knights also play a very slow pace (319th in adjusted tempo) which could be a problem for the Gators who like to play fast. We would anticipate UCF slowing this game down giving them the best chance to win. Florida had much higher expectations entering the season and really played worse as the year progressed. They started the season ranked 35th by KenPom and ended the year ranked outside the top 60. The closed the season losing 7 of their last 10 games with their only wins coming vs Ole Miss, UGA, and LSU, 3 of the 4 SEC teams ranked outside the top 100. They really struggled after losing leading scorer & rebounder Colin Castleton in late February winning 2 of 8 games without him in the line up and he remains out. We’re not so sure that this Florida team is all that excited to be in the NIT this season. Both defenses are very solid holding opponents to less than 0.98 PPP. Offensively, UCF is the better shooting team. The Knights have the better offensive efficiency numbers, they make 36% of their triples (83rd nationally compared to Florida who ranks 291st in that statistic) and they make 77% of their FT’s. When facing the best teams in the AAC, the Knights played well losing to NCAA #1 seed Houston by 6 & 11 points while beating Memphis the first meeting and then getting nipped by 2 and 5 points in their other 2 vs the Tigers. In the non-conference this team nearly beat Miami FL (lost by 2) and Missouri (lost by 2). We like their chances here at the upset and we’ll take the points.

#669 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M CC -3.5 over SE Missouri State, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - We see this as a potential mismatch in Tuesday’s NCAA tourney play in game. Texas A&M CC was here last year and lost to Texas Southern so they are not simply happy to be here. They expected to be back and are set on winning this game. The Islanders are very experienced returning all 5 starters from last year’s game that lost in the play in round. That group has an overall record of 46-22 the last 2 years. They did lose one of their key players, Terrion Murdix, in their conference championship game last week and he is out for the season. He’s a very well liked teammate and we expect the others to rally around this injury and play with a little extra on Tuesday. They were the best team in the Southland Conference all season long finishing in first place in the regular season, winning the conference tourney to get here and ending the year #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in league play. The Southland Championship game was last Wednesday so the Islanders have had a week off to get ready for this one. SE Missouri State, on the other hand, just played 4 consecutive games (Wed – Sat) in the OVC tourney in Indiana and now with only 2 days off they are on the road and at it again. Unlike A&M, this team was not the best in their conference this season. They finished tied for 3rd place with 2 other teams and the Redhawks were barely positive in their PPP margin in league play this season. This is also a program that is not used to being in this situation as their last winning record was way back in 2014. They haven’t been in the Big Dance since 2000 and we’re guessing they might be just happy to be here as it was not expected this season. TAMU-CC is a very good offensive team averaging 81 PPG and they rank 38th nationally in 3 point %. They are facing a defense that simply isn’t very good allowing 77 PPG (337th nationally). We look for a win & cover for the Islanders on Tuesday.

#555 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Phoenix Suns +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, Monday at 10 PM ET - The Suns have owned this series winning all 3 meetings this season and none have been particularly close with margins of victory being +9, +11, and +12. On top of that, the Suns were only at full strength for 1 of those games with Booker, Ayton, and Paul missing time and Steph Curry scored 50 points in one of those games and Phoenix still got the win. Phoenix is still waiting for the return of Kevin Durant from the unfortunate injury when he was warming up for his home debut, but they are healthy otherwise and have been solid with an 8-3 record since Devin Booker returned to the lineup from an injury. Their overall record of 37-30 doesn’t paint an accurate picture as Phoenix was just 11-16 in the 27 games Booker missed. Since the All Star break, the Suns are 5-2 but lead the NBA in efficiency differential at +9.9 while the Warriors are 10th at +2.8. We’re also getting a well rested Suns team as they’ve played just 7 games since the All Star break while Golden State has played 10 games. We like the situation here with Golden State off huge OT win vs Milwaukee (minus Giannis) on Saturday while were getting Phoenix off a loss on Saturday vs Sacramento. The Suns have performed very well coming off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record dating back to early January. The Warriors have been very tough at home this season but we still like the points here and expect the Suns to have a solid shot at the win, if not we anticipate a close game.

#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -4.5 over Texas A&M, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Quick revenge here for Bama. This is who they wanted in the finals and this is who they got. In the season finale A&M played host to Bama and we were on the Aggies in that game. It was a perfect storm to grab the home team as the Tide had just beaten arch rival Auburn to clinch the SEC title and now were on the road in a somewhat meaningless game. We were actually impressed with Bama’s resolve in that game (considering the circumstances) as they fell behind by 15 and battled back to take the lead with under 5 minutes remaining in the game before ultimately losing 67-61. The difference in that game? Free Throws! A&M made 27 of their 28 FT’s in that game while the Crimson Tide made only 10 freebies. Despite the huge discrepancy from the line and the game being on the road, Alabama was able to keep it close down the stretch. The controlled the boards in that game (+10) and gathered 35% of their misses to give them a number of 2nd chance opportunities. Alabama is easily the best team in the SEC and probably the best team in the country when they actually show up and play like they are capable. They should do that today with the A&M loss still fresh in their minds (9 days ago). They rank #1 in the SEC in offensive & defensive efficiency as well as offensive & defensive eFG%. Bama has 5 losses on the season with 4 of those coming vs teams inside KenPom’s top 20. The Aggies have 8 losses, all vs teams ranked outside KenPom’s top 20 with 2 coming vs teams ranked outside the top 200. Alabama is simply the better team and very motivated here. Lay it.

#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -6.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We were on OSU 2 days ago vs Iowa and picked up a nice win. Yesterday we switched gears and took Michigan State over Ohio State and came up short. MSU, the top 3 point shooting team in the Big 10, made 3 of 16 from deep for just 19%. The Buckeyes made 10 three pointers and hit 53% from beyond the arc (+21 points from 3) and that was the difference. The Buckeyes have been a bit fortunate with their opponents missing from the arc in this tourney. Wisconsin, Iowa, and MSU combined to make only 11 of their 55 three point attempts (20%). OSU played their game yesterday without their leading scorer Sensabaugh (16.5 PPG) who tweaked his knee vs Iowa the day before. The OSU medical staff is doing some tests on Friday night to decide if he’s OK to go on Saturday. The Bucks rose to the occasion and played very well without their top player which often happens in the first game dealing with the injury. If Sensabaugh can’t play Saturday it will make it really tough on this team. Even if he can go and isn’t 100%, this is a very difficult spot for the streaking Buckeyes. They are playing their 4th game in 4 days while Purdue is playing just their 2nd. Down another player yesterday, the Buckeyes played 4 of their 5 starters 35+ minutes. Now they face a Purdue team that has been the best in the Big 10 all season long. The Boilers are a huge team facing a fatigued OSU squad that isn’t very deep up front after losing top big man Zed Key in mid February. Purdue should definitely control the boards in this game (#1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the Big 10) and that should lead to a number of extra possessions. In their match up in late February, a 27 points Purdue win, the Boilers crushed OSU on the boards (+23) and they gathered more than 45% of their misses in both games. PU also fouls less than any team in the league and gets to the FT line more than any team in the conference. Unless the Buckeyes shoot lights out again, we just don’t see them hanging in this one. Lay it with the Boilermakers as they pull away in the 2nd half.

ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +1.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from Wednesday night when the Hawks beat the Wizards by 2. Statistically the game was about as even as it gets with the Hawks benefitting from +10 free throw attempts. Washington was in a tough scheduling situation having played the night before and they were playing their 4th game in six days. Atlanta won’t have that scheduling advantage and are also playing into immediate revenge. Washington is 15-16 SU at home on the season with a negative differential of -0.4PPG. Atlanta is 13-19 SU when coming off a win, 4-10 SU when away off a W. The Hawks have a losing road record of 15-20 SU with a negative average point differential of minus -1.7PPG. Washington has covered 6 of the last eight meetings with Atlanta and will get a big home win here.

#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON Duke -2.5 over Miami FL, Friday at 7 PM ET - When these 2 met back in February in Miami we were all over the Canes and picked up an EASY win. Miami was a 3 point favorite in that game and rolled the Devils 81-59 in an embarrassing performance by Duke. It was a perfect spot to fade the Blue Devils as they had just beaten UNC at home 2 days earlier and had to go on the road and play another game just 48 hours later. Duke followed that up with a spirited performance in an OT loss @ UVA and have since won 7 in a row. This team is peaking right now and we’re not so sure about Miami. Over their last 5 games Duke is winning by an average score of 78-64 hitting 50% of their shots while holding their opponents to 38% shooting. Yesterday they absolutely obliterated a very solid Pitt team by the final score of 96-69! Because of that they were able to spread their minutes out with 15 guys logging minutes and 10 of those playing double digit minutes. Meanwhile Miami went to the wire with Wake before winning 74-72. That’s been a theme for the Hurricanes down the stretch as they’ve been fortunate to come out on top in a number of games. In their last 4 games they held on to beat Va Tech by 6, lost to Florida State (2nd lowest rated team in the ACC), beat Pitt by 2, and then topped WF by 2. The Miami defense has allowed 78 PPG and 48% shooting by their opponents over the last 5 games. This game is in Greensboro so it will be a HEAVY Duke crowd. Two teams heading in opposite directions here and one should be ultra motivated after getting destroyed in their most recent meeting. Lay the small number with Duke.

#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan State -3.5 over Ohio State, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - We were on OSU yesterday vs Iowa and we love the way the Buckeyes are playing right now. That being said, we feel this is where their run comes to an end. This is a really tough spot for OSU playing their 3rd straight day and 4th game in 7 days while MSU has been resting since Saturday. Speaking of last Saturday, Michigan State played host to the Buckeyes in their home finale and won 84-78. Sparty led that game by 9 at half and OSU got to within 3 for about 10 seconds in the 2nd half but never got closer than 5 beyond that. That was the 2nd meeting between these 2. In the first meeting @ Ohio State, the Spartans rolled to a 62-41 win. The Bucks have shot extremely well the first 2 games of this tournament hitting 52 of their 103 shot attempts for 50.5%. They’ve also made 42% of their 3 point attempts in those 2 games. We would expect facing a very solid and rested MSU defense (37th nationally in defensive efficiency) that tired legs will most likely bring those shooting percentages down quite a bit in this game. The Buckeyes have also benefited from some poor shooting by their opponents, especially from beyond the arc. In their opener Wisconsin made only 4 of 22 from 3 point land and yesterday Iowa was 4-17. That’s a combined 8 of 39 for only 20%. It’s not as if OSU has a fantastic 3 point defense as they rank 11th in the conference allowing almost 36%. Today they face the best 3 point shooting team in the Big 10 with MSU making 41.5% from deep in league play. With potential tired legs defensively, we expect the Spartans to have a number of open looks. This is also a Michigan State offense that is peaking down the stretch scoring 80 or more points in each of their last 4 games. This one might be close into the 2nd half but we look for MSU to pull away down the stretch as they take advantage of OSU’s fatigue. If Sparty needs to make FT’s to salt this one away, they are #1 in Big 10 play hitting 78.5% from the stripe. This is a small number to lay in this situation and we’ll take the Spartans.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -9 vs Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - The Rockets are playing out the schedule and have a lot to gain if they stay within the bottom three teams in the league for the worst overall record (chance for #1 draft pick). Houston is 2-12 SU their last 14 games and the two wins came against the worst team in the league the Spurs. Recently the Rockets beat the Spurs twice but prior to that stretch they had lost 11 in a row. During that 11-game losing streak the Rockets lost 8 of those games by double-digits. After beating the Spurs the Rockers were trounced at home by the Nets by 22. Houston has the 2nd worst overall average point differential at minus -7.9PPG for the season, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency and 29th in DEFF. When playing away from home the Rockets get beat by an average of 11.3PPG. The Pacers are playing much better again with their All-Star PG Haliburton back in the lineup. They have won 3 of their last five games and one of those two losses came against the 76ers. Indiana is still fighting for a playoff spot and have enough talent on the roster to win this game by double digits. The Pacers have covered 11 of the last 15 meetings with the Rockets in Indianapolis.

#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan -3 over Rutgers, Thursday at 12 PM ET - A bubble showdown game here early on Thursday. Rutgers was all but in a month ago but the Knights have proceeded to lose 6 of their last 8 games with their only wins coming by 1 point vs Wisconsin and by 3 points vs PSU. Their offense has been non-existent scoring 60 points or less in 6 of their last 8 games and they are now officially the worst shooting team in the Big 10 (dead last in eFG%). Rutgers declined started when they lost key starter Mawot Mag (8 PPG & 5 RPG) who was one of the top defensive players. He is out for the season. This poor shooting team is facing a Michigan defense that has played very well down the stretch and the Wolverines now rank #1 in the Big 10 in eFG% defense. Offensively they are solid as well ranking 4th in the Big 10 in efficiency and they are 2nd in the league in scoring (conference games). Michigan enters this game of back to back tight OT losses on the road @ Illinois and @ Indiana. Prior to that they had won 6 of 8 and were very close to winning 8 of 10 had they been able to pull the upsets on the road vs top tier conference teams to close out the season. These 2 faced off @ Rutgers at the end of February and the Wolverines dominated in a 13 point win. They did so with one of their top players, Jett Howard, on the bench with an injury and he is now back and healthy. Michigan held Rutgers to just 45 points in that game on 0.74 PPP. They also had an advantage on the boards and fewer turnovers. Both of these teams need a win desperately to remain in consideration for the NCAA tourney and Michigan was the much better team over the last month or so. If they can win @ Rutgers, a very tough place to play, and win handily without one of the top scorers, they should do the same here. Lay the small number with the Wolverines.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3.5 vs. Toronto Raptors, 10:10 PM ET - Now that the Clippers “got the monkey off their backs” with a win over the Grizzlies we like them to continue to trend up as they adjust to the addition of Russell Westbrook. LA had lost 5 straight prior to their most recent win but all 5 of those L’s came against top teams in the West. Now they face an average team with a below .500 record from the East. Toronto is 12-21 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. The Raptors two most impressive road wins in recent weeks are at Washington and at Detroit neither of those teams compare to this Clippers team. Los Angeles is 16-15 SU at home with a +/- of +1.2PPG. Neither team shoots it overly well overall with the Raptors hitting just 45.5% of their field goal attempts (26th), while the Clippers make 47.1% good for 17th. Where the Clippers do excel though is from beyond the arc with the 6th best 3PT% at 36.7%. Toronto is second-to-last in the NBA in defending the 3-point line allowing 37.7%. The Clippers have an added day of rest while the Raptors played 2 nights ago in the higher altitude of Denver. Buy low on the Clippers tonight!

#676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah pick-em over Stanford, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We like the Utes quite a bit heading into the Pac 12 tourney. We think they are undervalued after losing their last 5 games of the season. The fact is they haven’t been healthy down the stretch but they are at full strength for this game. Starting guards Madsen and Worster have missed a number of games down the stretch which has really affected this team. Madsen missed 7 in a row before returning for the season finale @ Colorado while Worster missed 2 straight vs UCLA & USC before coming back in that same game. The Utes lost that game running into a buzzsaw in Boulder which was Colorado’s home finale. Those 2 players combined for 24 points in their 69-60 loss @ CU to close out the season but the team shot poorly at just 33%. With 1 game at full strength under their belts, we look for a solid performance on Wednesday. Utah has a great defense. They rank 33rd nationally in defensive efficiency, 7th in eFG% defense, 17th in 3 point FG% defense, and 11th in 2 point FG% defense. Stanford ranks dead last in the Pac 12 in eFG% defense & 3 point FG% defense along with ranking 11th in the conference in defensive efficiency. Offensively the Cardinal really rely in making 3 pointers offensive with 36% of their points coming from deep (2nd in conference play). We mentioned how good Utah’s 3 point defense is so that’s going to be a problem for Stanford. These 2 met once this year and Utah was at full strength and dominated that game which was @ Stanford. These 2 split their meeting this year with each winning on the opponent’s home court. Here the difference. In the first meeting @ Stanford, the Utes were at full strength and dominated for much of the game despite the 71-66 final score. Utah led by 16 with 8 minutes to go in the game. When the played in Utah, the Utes were without Madsen and lost a tight game despite shooting just 39% while the Cardinal lit it up at 53% from the field and 56% from 3 point land. Utah is the better team and they just need to win this one based on the spread. We’ll take it.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -6 @ Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - Most experts wrote the Nets off after the trade deadline when they dealt Kevin Durant to Phoenix and Kyrie Irving to Dallas. But Brooklyn is 5-5 SU their last ten games and still in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Nets are starting to gel offensively and building around Mikal Bridges who has scored 30+ points in four games since joining Brooklyn. The Nets are off two wins over the Celtics and Hornets and have a winning road record of 17-16 SU for the season. Brooklyn is 3rd in overall FG% offense, 3rd in 3-point shooting and 18th in scoring (granted those numbers include KD and Kyrie). The Rockets are playing out the schedule and have a lot to gain if they stay within the bottom three teams in the league for the worst overall record (chance for #1 draft pick). Houston has won 2 straight over the 16-win Spurs but had lost 11 straight going into that home-and-home. During that 11-game losing streak the Rockets lost 8 of those games by double-digits. Houston has the 2nd worst average point differential at minus -7.9PPG for the season, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency and 29th in DEFF. Houston is just 9-22 SU with a negative +/- of minus -4.4PPG at home this season. Lay the points with the short road favorite here.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +10 @ NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is one of those plug your nose bets, but several key indicators have us on the Hornets. The red-hot Knicks have covered 10 of their last twelve games but now they are being asked to cover a double-digit spread. New York has only been favored by 10 or more points once this season and they failed to cover in a 3-point win over the Spurs. With more tickets and money flowing in on the Knicks this line moved from -9.5 to minus -10, and is now getting bet back by the Sharps. The Knicks have played a brutally tough schedule of late, including an OT game against the Celtics last time out. They are about to embark on a West Coast trip so it will be easy for them to look past the struggling Hornets here. Charlotte had won 5-straight games, lost PG Ball to a broken ankle, then lost three straight. Charlotte is 7-5-1 ATS this season when tabbed a double-digit underdog. NY is 21-25-2 ATS as a home chalk since the start of last season. This is one of those games where the oddsmakers are begging you to bet the Knicks, so bet contrarian and take the ugly underdog!

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Penguins Puck Line (-1.5 goals -130) over Columbus Blue Jackets, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - Pittsburgh is in a great spot here which is why they are a -300 favorite on the money line.  Where the value is here is with the puck line which is in the -130 range on this one.  Regardless of the starting goalies here, we love the Penguins in this spot.  However, we will mention that the expected starters are Elvis Merzlikins for the Blue Jackets and Tristan Jarry for the Penguins.  Merzlikins is having a horrific season and Columbus has lost 19 of his 26 starts and he has a 4.15 GAA which is ridiculously high.  Jarry has a solid 2.77 GAA and has a 19-7-5 record overall.  The Blue Jackets have lost 22 of 29 road games this season while the Penguins are on home ice where they have been rock solid this season.  We love the fact that Pittsburgh is off a 4-1 road loss but now back home and the road loss had followed a 4-game winning streak.  Also, the Penguins have won 6 straight over the Blue Jackets by a combined score of 28 to 12.  That works out to an average score of 5 to 2 and there is certainly nothing average about that!  The fact is the Blue Jackets struggle consistently when facing these Penguins and now Columbus enters this match-up slumping as well.  The Blue Jackets have lost 10 of 15 games.  The Penguins have averaged scoring nearly 5 goals per game in last 6 wins on home ice and Columbus just will not be able to keep up here.  Home team in a blowout per our computer math model.  Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Pittsburgh is the value play here.

#611 ASA TOP PLAY ON Notre Dame +7.5 over Virginia Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Irish had a rough season to say the least with a 3-17 Big East record. However, there have been signs of life down the stretch and they start a new season tonight. ND upset Pitt one week ago today in their home finale and then fell flat on Saturday @ Clemson. That was somewhat understandable as their game @ Clemson was pretty much meaningless as the Irish were already locked into the 14 seed while the Tigers were still fighting for a double bye. It’s one of the few games this year that Notre Dame was blown out. Despite their 17 losses, they were in most of their games and could have a much better record. 11 of their 17 conference losses came by 8 points or fewer and 5 of those were 1 possession games (lost by 3 or less). 5 of their last 7 losses down the stretch were close including losing to this Va Tech team by 6 points on February 11th. The FT disparity in that game was the difference with the Hokies making 20 FT’s to just 6 for the Irish. That was an aberration in our opinion as neither of these teams gets to the FT line all that often (ranked outside the top 330 in % of points from the charity stripe) and neither fouls very much (both in the top 50 nationally in % of points allowed from the FT line). Other than that key stat, there wasn’t anything else that stood out as a big advantage in that game for either team as most were fairly even. VT was far from stellar in the weak ACC this year finishing with a record of 8-12 in league play. They enter this tournament on a modest 2 game winning streak over FSU & Louisville, the 2 worst teams in the ACC. We’ll keep an eye on ND freshman guard JJ Starling, one of the top freshmen in the conference, as he’s missed a few games with a knee bruise. If he plays it’s a bonus as we like Notre Dame at this number whether he’s in or out. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6 vs. Toronto Raptors, 9:10 PM ET - Denver has the 2nd best overall record in the NBA and the best home record at 29-4 SU. They win at home by an average of +11.9PPG which is best in the league. In their three most recent home games they were favored by similar numbers over three Western Conference teams that rate better than Toronto and they won all three by 9+ points. Toronto is 12-20 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. As an away dog the Raptors are 11-9 ATS. As a home favorite the Nuggets are 20-10-1 ATS with an average cover margin of +4.2PPG. Toronto was recently +7.5 points at a similar Cleveland team and lost by 25-points. The Nuggets last played March 3rd so they have extra rest and a rest advantage. When playing with a rest advantage the Nugs are 11-4-1 ATS. When playing on 2 or more days off they are 9-3 ATS this season. The Raptors two most impressive road wins in recent weeks are at Washington and at Detroit which doesn’t impress us. The Nuggets have plenty to play for which is the #1 record overall (trail the Bucks by 1-game) which would mean home court advantage if they make the Finals.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3 over the Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - This is a quick rematch game for both teams as they just played Saturday in Miami with the Heat winning 117-109. Only 1.5 games separate these two teams in the Eastern Conference Playoff standings so it takes on an added importance for both teams. On Saturday, Miami held slight edges shooting at 51% compared to 47% overall and 37% to 30% from beyond the Arc. The Heat won that game by 8-points despite the Hawks two leading scorers Dejounte Murray (21PPG) and Trae Young (26.7PPG) being held to 10 and 7-points respectively. We are betting those two have much better games tonight. Miami has a winning record at home but their +/- is 24th in the league at +0.8PPG. As a home favorite, the Heat own the 2nd worst winning percentage in the NBA at 25.9% ATS with a 7-20-2 spread record. Atlanta has a losing road record at 14-19 SU but it should be much better based on the fact they own the 11th best average MOV at -1.9PPG. As a road dog this season, they are .500 or 11-11 ATS. We like the Hawks here plus the points in this immediate revenge game.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -5 vs NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is one of our favorite scheduling situations as we get an elite team in the NBA off a loss laying a short number, at home and playing with recent revenge. Boston is coming off a home loss to the Nets, a game in which they led by as many as 28-points. That result, plus the fact they just lost to the Knicks on Feb 27th will have them focused and motivated here. In their recent loss to New York the Celtics were favored by -2-points and are now laying just a few more at home. Boston is 25-8 SU at home with an average +/- of plus 8.7PPG which is 4th best in the NBA. The C’s have the 4th best offensive efficiency rating at home and the 11th best defensively. The Knicks are playing well right now with 8 straight wins but it hasn’t come against an overly difficult schedule and the win against the Celtics came with Boston’s Jaylen Brown sitting out. NY has some solid road statistics with top 10 OEFF and DEFF rankings but are in a bad situation here with a very soft spread. The Knicks don’t shoot it as well as the Celtics and both have very comparable defensive statistics so we expect that edge to be the difference here. Bet the value and Celtics in this great situation.

#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -3.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - We faded Maryland on the road earlier this week @ Ohio State and picked up a win and we’ll do it again today. The Terps stink on the road. No 2 ways around it. They have a grand total of 2 road wins this year and those came @ Minnesota, by far the worst team in the Big 10, and @ Louisville, by far the worst team in the ACC. Those 2 teams have combined record this year of 12-46! As expected based on their road record, the Terps key numbers drop off a cliff when they travel. At home their offense averages 1.15 points per possession and on the road they put up only 0.97 PPP. They average only 62 PPG on the road this season and if we throw out their game @ Minnesota, who has the worst defense in the Big 10, Maryland has been held under 60 points in 5 of their 7 conference roadies. PSU is playing their home finale and in must win mode. They are currently sitting just outside the NCAA field according to most analysts and can’t afford a home setback today. PSU has some momentum coming off an impressive road win @ Northwestern earlier this week. They also should have some extra incentive in this home finale as they lost their most recent home game, 59-56, vs Rutgers and the Nittany Lions blew a 19 point 2nd half lead in that one. Their offense has been exceptional this season at home averaging 78 PPG on 1.15 PPG and hitting over 40% of their 3’s. In their meeting a few weeks ago in Maryland, the Terps came away with a 74-68 win and in that game they made 18 FT’s to just 2 for PSU and it was still a tight game. This is just a much bigger game for the home team and we’ll lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - Yeah, we know…how can you bet against the Bucks who have won 16 straight games? Philly has a lineup that can compete with Milwaukee and Joel Embiid will put forth extra effort in a marquee matchup with Giannis. The Sixers are coming off a loss in Dallas and they’ve been good in this situation with a 6-2 record in their last eight games when coming off a loss. Overall, the 76ers are 12-9 ATS when off a loss and they have an average +/- in those games of +5.5PPG. Philly is 14-14 ATS on the road this season, but they do own a positive differential at +1.9PPG. Granted the Bucks are 27-5 SU at home this season with a +/- of +8.4PPG, but the underdog has covered and won outright in 3 of the last four meetings. Grab the points with the Sixers.

#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Villanova +2.5 over UConn, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Nova is flying under the radar right now but they are playing as well as anyone in the Big East. The Cats have won 6 of their last 7 games and they’ve pushed their Big East record to 10-9 after starting just 4-8. Their top player, Justin Moore, missed the first 20 games of the season and since he’s come back and gotten acclimated to his teammates, they’ve played very good basketball. When Nova faced UConn earlier this season, Moore was not yet in the lineup and they hung tight losing by 8 on the road. In that game the Huskies were +6 at the FT line and +15 from beyond the arc yet even with those big advantages it was just a 2 point game with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. UConn is very talented but they’ve been up & down this year. They are entering this one on a 4 game winning streak but they’ve only been a .500 team on the road. The Huskies have won 3 of their last 4 on the road, however those 3 wins came vs St Johns, DePaul, and Georgetown, the 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference. The one solid team they played on the road during that stretch was Creighton and they lost that game. Prior to winning 3 of 4 on the road, Connecticut had lost 4 in a row away from home and they average 10 PPG fewer on the road this season. They’ve also faced the easiest strength of schedule in Big East play yet they have 7 conference losses. This game is expected to be close based on the spread so free throws could be key. We look for the host Wildcats to have a solid advantage at the stripe as they get their often with 20% of their points coming from freebies (78th nationally). UConn fouls more than any team in the conference with their opponents scoring 24% of their points from the stripe. On top of that, Villanova makes 83% of their FT’s as a team this season. We like the Wildcats to win their home finale and getting points is a bonus.

#604 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -1.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Crimson Tide have been trending down as of late. Lots of obvious distractions going on right now and last 3 games Bama has looked shaky at best and 2 of those games were at home Over their last 3 games they nearly lost @ South Carolina, the worst team in the SEC. Bama won that game by 2 points in OT and despite making 10 more FT’s than the Gamecocks, it was tight throughout. Following that performance the Tide were forced to come from down double digits at home vs Arkansas in a 3 point win. Most recently, on Wednesday hosting Auburn, Bama trailed for most of game and came back from 17 down with under 10 minutes remaining and won in OT. How important is this game to Bama? They already clinched SEC title with their win over arch rival Auburn earlier this week. This is pretty much a meaningless game as they close out the regular season. A&M has been playing outstanding basketball winning 7 of last 8 and they are a PERFECT 8-0 at home in SEC play. While they are locked into 2nd place, the Aggies will bring the heat here in their final home game of the season and facing off against the #1 team in the SEC. At home A&M has a PPG margin of +13 and their defense is allowing just 60 PPG. Bama, on the other hand, has seen a big dip in their road splits vs home splits. They average 12 PPG less on the road and efficiency drops way off on road from 1.18 PPP at home to 0.99 on the road. We like the Aggies to win this game at home.

#867 ASA TOP PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over Colorado State, Friday at 11 PM ET - When healthy, the Lobos are as talented as any team in the Mountain West despite their 8-9 league record. Their star point guard Jaelen House missed back to back games earlier this month and since his return New Mexico is 2-2. However, taking a closer look at those games reveals they’ve played very well over their last 4. The 2 wins were both by double digits vs San Jose State & Fresno State. The 2 losses were vs the 2 highest rated teams in the conference and New Mexico was in solid position to win both. They led by 13 @ Boise last week and shot only 37% from the field yet still had a shot at the win. The Lobos then faced #1 seed San Diego State over the weekend and again led by 13 in the 2nd half and the Aztecs led for a grand total of 3 minutes in the 2nd half but hit a 3 pointer at the buzzer to win by 2. The New Mexico offense is a terrible match up for this CSU defense. In the first meeting which was a NM blowout win, the Lobos scored 88 points on 1.28 PPP. The Rams rank dead last in the MWC in defensive efficiency allowing 1.12 PPG and 10th in eFG% allowed. They also have one of the worst 3 point defenses in the country (ranked 306th) while New Mexico is the best 3 point shooting team in the conference hitting nearly 40% of their triples in league play. The Lobos have averaged 85 PPG since House returned and they should have their way offensively tonight. It’s CSU’s final home game but they’ve been less than spectacular with a terrible 2-6 record at home in conference play. The Rams only 2 home wins in conference play were vs Wyoming and Fresno who have a combined MWC record of 10-25. CSU will be seeded anywhere from 7 to 11 for the upcoming conference tourney which means they’ll play on the first day no matter what. This game is huge for NM as a win sets them up to possibly get the 5 seed and avoid the play in round. We’ll take the much better team in a near pick-em game tonight.

#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kent State -4 over Akron, Friday at 7 PM ET - Revenge is in place for the 2nd place team in the MAC (Kent) in their home finale. A win here and a Toledo loss @ Ball State and the Golden Flashes can finish in a tie for 1st place. A win here and the worst they finish is in 2nd place. Kent traveled to Akron 1 month ago as a 1 point road favorite and lost the game 67-55. Now we’re only laying -5 (opening number) at home which is a nice value based on the spread when they met in early February. The Flashes, who average 1.11 PPP in MAC play this year, put up just 0.89 PPP in that loss which was by far their worst offensive performance of the MAC season. In fact, Kent has put up at least 1.00 PPP in every other conference game but 1 this season. In the loss, Akron made 20 FT’s while Kent made only 7 which turned out to be the difference in the game. Since that loss, they have won 6 of 7 games and their home court advantage has been terrific with a perfect 14-0 record this year. They average 83.6 PPG at home which is nearly 30 more than they scored @ Akron last month. They also shoot 48% at home while putting up 1.13 PPP we expect a much better offensive performance tonight. This is their home finale (and season finale) and with revenge along with celebrating 4 key seniors, we expect Kent to bring their best on Friday night. Since beating Kent, the Zips are 4-3 and struggled to beat Ball State in their home finale. The Cardinals led by double digits midway through the 2nd half and Akron battled back for the win. They have a .500 record on the road, but score only 68 PPG and average less than 1.00 PPP away from home (0.97 PPP). Facing a motivated Kent defense that ranks #1 in the MAC in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and turnovers created will be tough for the Zips. Kent is the better team and extra motivated for this one. We’ll lay it with the Golden Flashes at home in their finale.

#770 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +1.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 11 PM ET - Wazzou is off back to back road wins @ Stanford and @ Cal and now playing their 3rd straight away from home. Despite their 2 road wins over the last week, the Cougars have been terrible on the road this season. They have a record of 3-8 in true road games and they are averaging only 62 PPG this season away from home while making only 38% of their shots. Washington State’s offensive efficiency drops from 1.08 PPP at home to 0.97 PPP on the road. We’re also catching them as an overvalued road favorite because they’ve won 5 straight games. The fact is 4 of those 5 wins have come against the 4 lowest rated teams in the Pac 12. We’re getting the Huskies as a dog in their home finale and they are playing better winning 3 of 4. At home they are 12-5 on the season and their 3 home losses in conference play have come vs UCLA, Arizona, and USC, the 3 top teams in the Pac 12. The Huskies are set to close out their regular season with a revenge win over their arch rival. In their meeting earlier this season, Wazzou held on to win a tight game 56-51. In that game the Cougars outscored Washington by 12 points from beyond the arc and by 5 points from the FT line yet it was a down to the wire game. WSU relies very heavily on shooting well from 3 as almost 40% of their points come from deep. Problem for them here is, Washington is very good at defending the arc allowing 29% on the season which is good for 14th nationally. On top of that Wazzou only hits 32% of their triples on the road this season. Thus we do not expect the Cougs to have another big advantage from deep which will hurt them in this game. As expected, the dog in this huge rivalry has covered 8 in and 20 of the last 27. We like Washington to win this one outright.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:30 PM ET - The Spurs had lost 16 straight games prior to a win in Utah in their last game out. We expect them to return to their losing ways again tonight versus a surging Pacers team vying for a Playoff spot. Not only did San Antonio go on a straight up losing streak they also have just 3 covers in their last seventeen games. Indiana has won 3 of four including an impressive win over the Mavericks last time out as a +8.5 point underdog. The Spurs are bad on both ends of the court ranking last in defensive efficiency, last in points allowed per game, last in overall FG% defense and 3PT% D. It’s not much better for them on the offensive end of the court where they rank 29th in offensive efficiency and 20th or worse in PPG allowed, FG% D and 3PT% defense. The Pacers should take advantage of the Spurs defense with their 11th ranked 3PT shooting offense that hit’s 36.4% of their attempts. San Antonio has failed to cover in 4 straight home games and the Pacers are on a 4-0 spread streak on the road against sub .400 teams. The Pacers have also covered 4 straight in San Antonio.

#774 ASA TOP PLAY ON South Alabama -3.5 over Appalachian State, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET - Early start here in the Sun Belt Conference tourney. We really like this South Alabama team and think they can make a run in this tournament. After starting the Sun Belt season with a 2-7 record, they Jags hit their stride winning 7 of their last 9 games in conference play. They are much better than their 9-9 Sun Belt record. The Jaguars PPP differential (conference play) is the 3rd best in the league behind only Marshall and Louisiana who finished with overall records of 24-7 and 23-7 respectively. This is a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up that is very balanced. Defensively they rank 1st in PPG allowed and eFG% allowed and 2nd in efficiency. Offensively they rank #1 in the Sun Belt in eFG% and turn the ball over only 15% of the time, the least in the conference. They were 3rd in the conference in PPG margin (+5.6) while App State was 8th at (+0.0 PPG) despite each finishing with a 9-9 record. The Mountaineers are not a great shooting team (258th nationally in eFG%) and they only average 65 PPG in conference play. If this one comes down to FT’s App State is not in a good spot ranking dead last in the Sun Belt making just 65% from the line. In their lone meeting this year, South Alabama won by 17 points despite taking 12 fewer shot attempts. The FT attempts were nearly dead even (11 to 10) so it wasn’t as if USA had a huge edge from the line to make up for the fewer shot attempts. They dominated more than the final score might indicate. This game is being played in a neutral site in Pensacola, FL which is only 55 miles from Mobile, AL, home of South Alabama. We like the Jaguars to make run in this tourney and it starts on Thursday morning. Lay it.

#704 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* TCU -2 over Texas, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We love this TCU team and when healthy we feel they are one of the best teams in the country. They are undervalued with just an 8-8 Big 12 record, however half of those losses (4) came when their top player Mike Miles was out with an injury. They also lost to Mississippi State when Miles was initially injured just 4 minutes into the game. Thus, the Frogs were just 1-5 when Miles was out from early to mid February. They’ve also played a number of games without starters Peavy & Lampkin as well. Peavy is back and playing while Lampkin has been in and out of the lineup. This team is as close to 100% as they have been in quite a while. We faded Texas on Saturday @ Baylor and picked up a win. The Horns have a very solid 22-7 record, but on the road they simply are an average team. They have a losing record in their road games and have been outscored on road this season. Texas has lost 4 of their last 5 road games with their only win during that stretch coming by 3 points @ Kansas State in a game they trailed by 14 points. At home the Horns average 85 PPG on 50% shooting. On the road they average 69 PPG on 43% shooting. At home TCU averages 78 PPG while allowing just 62 PPG. Their only conference home loss when they were at full strength was a 5 point setback vs Kansas, a game in which they made only 20 of their 66 shot attempts (30%). KU had some revenge on their minds in that game after TCU beat them by 23 points in Lawrence. The first meeting between these 2 teams went to the wire in Austin with Texas coming out on top 79-75. The Horned Frogs blew a 13 point halftime lead in that game and Texas took their first lead of the 2nd half with just 1:00 minute remaining in the game. Despite the conference records, Texas 11-5 & TCU 8-8, these 2 teams have very similar PPP margins in league play. TCU is underrated and we’ll take them at home.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - These two teams are both in the playoff mix with the Bulls looking up at the Raptors in the standings. After losing 6 straight games going into the All-Star break the Bulls have won 2 straight over the Nets and Wizards. Toronto had won 7 of eight games prior to a loss last time out in Cleveland. In that winning stretch though, the Raptors really had just one quality win over the Memphis Grizzlies as none of the other “W’s” came against a team with a winning record. The Bulls defense is solid and will be better with the addition of Patrick Beverly who was recently added to the roster. Chicago allows the 10th fewest points in the league, own the 9th best FG% defense and 10th best 3PT% D. Toronto will struggle to score here with an offense that ranks 27th in team FG% and 3PT%. Offensively the Bulls own the 6th best shooting percentage in the league and rank 16th in 3PT%. The Raptors are 27th in FG% defense and 3PT% defense. Chicago has an average Margin of Victory on the road at -2.9PPG. Toronto has a +/- of +2.5PPG at home. Both of those averages clearly favor Chicago in this matchup. In what shapes up to be a lower scoring game we will gladly grab the points with the Bulls.

#862 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -4 over West Virginia, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re definitely catching a buy low spot on ISU in this game. They are coming off their worst home performance of the season losing 61-50 as a 7.5 point favorite vs Oklahoma. The Cyclones jumped out to an 11 point first half lead and they were up by 5 at halftime when their offense went in the tank. They shot just 27% in the 2nd half while OU hit over 56% of their shots after the break. Even with that loss ISU is still a very good 13-2 at home this season and they’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Baylor, KSU, and Texas here this season. Head coach TJ Otzelberger was not happy after the performance and mentioned his team needs more “personal pride”. We expect a great effort on Monday night. The Cyclones are catching WVU in a vulnerable spot. The Mountaineers played @ Kansas on Saturday and took the Jayhawks to the wire losing by 2 points. That was a physically and emotionally draining game and now they must play on the road, in one of the toughest spots to play in the Big 12, just 48 hours later. Despite playing KU tough on Saturday, West Virginia is just 2-8 on the road this season and they’ve now lost 7 straight away from home. They are the worst shooting team in the Big 12 (conference games) ranking dead last in eFG%. Tonight they are facing the top defensive efficiency team in the conference and one of the best in the country as ISU allows just 0.91 PPP (8th nationally). We expect WVU to struggle offensively in this game. While Iowa State’s offense played poorly on Saturday, they did get a key piece back in the line up with Caleb Grill (10 PPG, 37% from 3 point range) returning from an injury. When these 2 met @ WVU earlier this month, the Cyclones gave the Mountaineers all they could handle losing by 5 points in a game they led with just over 1:00 minute remaining. We like Iowa State to get back on track and grab a win & cover in their final home game of the season. They start 4 seniors so this will be an emotional night in Ames. Lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6 vs Miami Heat, 7:10 PM ET - Something is going on in Miami that can’t be figured out right now as this team just isn’t competitive. The Heat have lost 4 straight games and 6 of their last ten overall. On the season they have struggled on the road with a 13-19 SU record with an average +/- of -2.3PPG. Miami is just 1-5 SU and ATS their last six away from home with the lone win coming in OT against the Magic. This will be the first meeting of the season between these two teams after the Heat eliminated the 76ers from the Playoffs a year ago. Philly is 5-1 SU and ATS their last six games but are coming off a tough loss to the Celtics on Saturday. The Celtics had a great shooting night which is surprising considering the Sixers own the 13th best FG% defense and 3rd best 3-point percentage D. Philly is 7-3 SU at home when coming off a loss this season and 24-9 SU overall at home. They win their home games by an average of +5.7PPG. and own a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency rating on their own court. Whatever has happened behind the scenes with Miami is a mystery right now but we don’t see things changing in this scenario. Lay the points.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +5.5 @ Atlanta Hawks, 3:10 PM ET - These two teams are coming off very different results as the Nets were just destroyed in Chicago by the Bulls 87-131, while the Hawks beat Cleveland at home 136-119. So off those results why would we back the Nets? Let’s not forget these guys are professionals and some of the most competitive players on the planet. That humiliating loss should have them focused and motivated here. Meanwhile the Hawks could be a little “fat” coming off that blowout win which has support from their 11-18 ATS mark when coming off a win this season. The Hawks are 16-12 SU at home this season with an average +/- of plus +1.8PPG. As a home favorite this season the Hawks are 10-13 ATS. Brooklyn is solid as a Dog this season with a 14-10 ATS record overall. They are 13-11 ATS when coming off a loss overall, 5-1 their last six. The Nets have an overall winning record on the road this season at 16-14 with an average +/- of -2.4PPG. The Hawks rank 21st in opponents FG% allowed and the Nets are the 2nd best shooting team in the NBA. This Nets roster still has plenty of talented players and they’ll keep this game close throughout.

#786 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -5 over St Mary’s, Saturday at 10 PM ET = The Zags have been waiting patiently for this WCC rematch. St Mary’s won the first meeting earlier this month at home in OT. It was a game that Gonzaga pretty much controlled throughout despite the loss. St Mary’s led for just over 1:00 minute in the first half and NEVER had a lead in the 2nd half. Thus the Zags led for 39 of the 40 minutes in regulation and lost when the Gaels sent the game to OT with the game tying basket with 8 seconds remaining in the game. Now the Zags get a shot at revenge at home where they have won 80 of their last 81 games! Not only that, Gonzaga sits one game behind St Mary’s for the WCC title and this is their season and home finale. A win would push them into a tie for 1st place in the conference on Senior Night. On top of that, ESPN’s College Game Day will be there on Saturday and the atmosphere will be beyond electric. Experts have been banging on the Bulldogs for not being at the same elite level they have been in recent years. While they might be down a bit from previous seasons, they are still outstanding. Four of their five losses have come vs Purdue, St Marys, Baylor, and Texas, all top 15 teams per KenPom. Their other loss was at home vs a solid Loyola Marymount team and when they had a shot at their revenge on the road, they beat LMU 108-65 just over 1 week ago. The Gaels also have 5 losses, however 4 of those have come vs teams ranked outside the top 50 including 2 ranked outside the top 100. On the road in WCC play St Mary’s lost at Loyola Marymount and had a number of close calls winning by 1 @ BYU, by 3 @ San Diego, and by 3 @ Santa Clara. Tonight they are stepping into a hornet’s nest at the McCarthey Athletic Center where Gonzaga is averaging a whopping 93 PPG this season with an average winning margin of +24 PPG. They are more than comfortable at home offensively where they make 55% of their shots and they are the most efficient offense overall in the nation this year averaging 1.22 PPP. Since the 1995/96 season, these 2 rivals have met 27 times in Spokane and Gonzaga has won 24 of those games. 9 of the last 10 home wins for Gonzaga vs St Mary’s have come by double digits. The Gaels are very good this season but this is a bad spot for them and we like Gonzaga to cover at home.

#608 ASA TOP PLAY ON Iowa -5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The statistical comparison of Iowa’s home vs road games is quite dramatic. They have superb numbers at home and on the road, not so much. At home this season the Hawkeyes are averaging 89 PPG shooting 49% from the field and almost 39% from deep. On the road, they average just 67 PPG on 40% shooting while only making 26% of their shots from the arc. We’re catching Iowa off back to back double digit road losses @ Northwestern & @ Wisconsin so they are hungry for a win here. In those 2 games, the Hawks combined go shoot 6 of 52 (11%) from beyond the 3 point line! Most were uncontested looks that just didn’t go down. Now at home where they shoot very well, we look for those numbers to skyrocket. Michigan State is in a tough spot here in our opinion. They had a rivalry game last weekend @ Michigan and lost by 12 (we were on Michigan). Then on Tuesday, they came home for a very emotional game vs Indiana which was the first home game since the tragic campus shootings. We were on Sparty in that game and they won by 15 points and players and coach Izzo alike were very consumed by the emotion of that game. Now they go on the road facing a desperate Iowa team which will be tough. MSU is just 1-5 SU their last 6 road games with 4 of those 5 losses coming by at least 9 points. For the season they are averaging just 64 PPG on the road while allowing 69 PPG. Remember, they are facing an Iowa team that averages nearly 90 PPG at home and the Hawks have scored at least 80 points in all but 1 conference home game. We’re just not sure the Spartans can keep up in this game. Not only will Iowa shoot well here as they almost always to at home, they should have a solid advantage at the FT line. 18% of Iowa’s points in league play come from the stripe (4th most) while MSU allows 21% of opponents points at the charity stripe (most in the Big 10). These 2 met in late January with the Spartans winning by a final of 63-61 as a 2.5 point favorite. A couple of takeaways from that game…MSU’s largest lead of the game was just 4 points while Iowa held a 10 point lead at one point. Iowa made only 3 of 17 from deep (17%) while Michigan State made 40% of their triples. Iowa also made just 46% of their FT’s and their season average is 74%. Even with all of that, the Hawkeyes had the ball late and missed two 3-pointers in the final 7 seconds which would have won the game. This one sets up very nicely for Iowa to win and cover at home on Saturday.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +6.5 vs LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - This is an inflated number for several reasons including the Russell Westbrook signing by the Clippers and the fact the Kings are coming off a game last night. But, while Westbrook is an incredible talent, he may also be a disruptive force early on with the Clippers as he tries to fit in. Secondly, the Kings played last night but it was a blowout win and they kept their minutes down for the starters, plus they are coming off the extended break from the All-Star game. The Kings own the 7th best average point differential on the road this season at -0.7PPG and have a winning straight up record at 15-13. The Clippers on the other hand are 15-13 SU at home but have the 22nd worst average MOV at +1.3PPG. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season for these two teams and the Kings have covered both prior to this game. In fact, Sacramento has covered 5 of the last seven meetings and we like that trend to continue here.

#884 ASA TOP PLAY ON James Madison -13.5 over Georgia State, Friday at 8 PM ET - James Madison is playing their home finale on Friday night and will honor 4 seniors, including 3 starters. The Dukes will be highly motivated in their last home game and adding fuel to the fire they are coming off a home loss Thursday night vs Sun Belt 1st place Marshall. That loss dropped JMU to 20-10 on the season and 11-6 in the Sun Belt. They have been a solid money maker this season with an 18-9 ATS record. The Dukes offense has been fantastic all season long averaging 81 PPG (18th nationally) and they’ve been even better at home putting up an average of 86 PPG. That’s going to be a problem for an offensive limited Georgia State team that is averaging only 61 PPG on the road this season. The Panthers offense ranks 324th in efficiency, 346th in eFG%, and 356th in 3 point FG%. They are facing a JMU defense that ranks 64th nationally in efficiency allowing less than 1.00 PPP and the Dukes create a ton of turnovers (22nd nationally). Meanwhile, Ga State turns the ball over at a very high rate, over 20% in conference play which is dead last in the league. That should lead to a number of extra possessions for James Madison, who is already a high scoring team. GSU is in last place in the league with a 3-14 record having lost 10 of their last 11 games. They are 0-10 SU on the road this year. They just played at home on Senior night Thursday vs a middle of the pack Sun Belt team, App State who is 9-9 in the league, and the Panthers were destroyed by 26 points. Now in their regular season finale, on the road vs one of the top teams in the conference, we don’t expect a great effort in a meaningless game for the Panthers. When these 2 met @ Georgia State earlier this season, JMU won 63-47 despite shooting just 35% overall and 21% from beyond the arc. They also played that game without their 2nd leading scorer, Morse, who is back and playing very well. Even with that, JMU led throughout and cruised to an easy road win. Now at home, and motivated vs a team that looks like they may have packed it in, this one could get ugly. GSU is among the worst ATS teams in CBB with a 6-18-2 spread record and we think they drop another tonight. James Madison BIG.

#810 ASA TOP PLAY ON Illinois -5 over Northwestern, Thursday at 9 PM ET - The Cats have won 5 straight and 8 of their last 10 but now they’ve become a bit overvalued in our opinion. The perfect example is when these 2 met in January, the Illini were favored by 3.5 on the road and now they are laying just 1 to 2 points more at home. NW won that first meeting 73-60 and while the Illini held the Wildcats offense in check allowing just 32% from the field, they lost the FT battle 32 to 6! Yes you read that correctly. Northwestern was 32 of 40 from the FT line while Illinois was 6 of 10. That was obviously the difference in the game and one of the more drastic FT differentials we’ve seen this season. Now we get the Illini in revenge mode, at home with a short number, and NW is ahead of them in the Big 10 standings. The Illini have been very good at home with a 13-2 overall record and they are outscoring their opponents by +17 PPG. One of Illinois’ top players, Terrence Shannon, has missed the last 2 games due to a concussion but he was back at practice on Wednesday. No word for sure if he’ll play or not but things are looking good. We’ve handicapped this game as if Shannon will not play so if he does it’s a bonus. NW is coming off a huge 3 game home stand in which they beat Purdue, Indiana, and Iowa. They were underdogs in all of those home games and now they are only a slight dog on the road vs a team that ranks 12 spots higher than Iowa (per KenPom) and nearly identical to Indiana. Two of those wins for NW went to the wire and if they lose those games we’re most likely laying 7 or more here. The Cats were just +5.5 @ Ohio State (who is 3-13 in conference play) in their most recent road game. Great value with Illinois here in our opinion. Prior to beating Illinois last month, Northwestern had lost 8 straight vs the Illini and they’ve only won THREE times in Champaign since 1980. We’ll lay it with the home team.