Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-29-16 | Thunder v. Grizzlies UNDER 198.5 | Top | 80-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Under Thunder/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): Russell Westbrook has basically become a "one man band" for Oklahoma City as he is almost single-handedly carrying this offense. En route to Westbrook potentially becoming the 1st player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple double over the course of a season, the team's overall offensive efficiency has plummeted all the way down to 15th from LY's second place ranking. Surprisingly though, the Thunder are up in the top 10 in defensive efficiency. Of course, Memphis tops the league in that department. Unfortunately for the Grizz, they are also 29th in offensive efficiency while playing at the third slowest pace in the league. This one has all the makings of an Under. Oklahoma City has won and covered each of its last four games, averaging 114 points per game in the process. But they were hardly facing any defensive stalwarts. Let it be noted that their last game, a 106-94 win at Miami, stayed Under the total. That result improved the team to 6-1 Under when coming off three consecutive victories this season. The game even stayed Under despite the Thunder shooting better than 51% from the field. I seriously doubt they'll match that percentage here against the stingy Grizzlies, who only allow 94.7 points per game (on 41.1 FG%) at home. Memphis is off uncharacteristically poor B2B efforts defensively, both on the road, so expect them to "tighten the screws" tonight. There are only three teams in the entire league that both score and allow less than 100 PPG. Memphis is one of them (Utah and Detroit are the others). From that perspective, this play looks like a great value. Like I said earlier, Memphis is one of the weakest offensive teams in the league (only Philadelphia averages fewer points per possession) and they play at a really slow pace to boot. Coming off B2B high-scoring games, which is clearly atypical, we should see a "return to normalcy" tonight. Furthermore, there's a chance Mike Conley (missed last game) could sit out again due to his ongoing toe issue. While all three meetings last year between these teams went Over, clearly the Thunder are very different. Westbrook, as good as he is, can not send a game Over the total by himself. 8* Under Thunder/Grizzlies |
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12-29-16 | Heat v. Hornets OVER 200.5 | Top | 82-91 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* Over Heat/Hornets (7:05 ET): Charlotte won last night in Orlando, 120-101 as 4.5-pt chalk. That was a nice bounce back from Monday's embarrassing 120-118 loss in Brooklyn. As if you couldn't tell from the scores there, both games easily went Over the total. I expect the same here as they return home to face another Southeast Division rival, Miami. The Heat are not as bad as their 10-22 SU record might seem to indicate, but they have lost five of six w/ the lone win coming at home against the Lakers. These teams have a notable history of staying Under the total when matching up, particularly here in the Queen City. But for the most part those were better defensive teams. Take the Over here. For the record, 22 of the previous 28 meetings here in Charlotte have stayed Under the total. That includes all seven the previous two seasons. Remember that these two did match up in a first round playoff series last year. The Heat prevailed there in seven games w/ each of the last five games staying Under. So too did the 1st meeting of 2016-17, which was the second game of the year for both sides. The final score there (game played in Miami) was 97-91 in the Hornets' favor, though both teams shot the ball very poorly overall. Charlotte was 38.0% while Miami was 37.2%. The Heat shot that poorly despite actually making 14 of 34 three-point attempts. That means they were just 18 of 52 on two-point attempts, which is head-scratchingly awful. They also missed seven of 20 FT attempts. So, what has changed for this go around? Well, for starters, I obviously expect both teams to shoot the ball a whole lot better. Charlotte has scored a combined 238 points its last two games and averaging 113 PPG over its last five. The Over is 10-3 for them this season when matched up against a team w/ a losing record. Both teams have slipped in defensive efficiency this year compared to last. It should be noted that the Hornets allowed the Magic to shoot 59% in the first half last night. Miami allowed OKC to shoot better than 51% on Tuesday, a game where they gave up 106 points. They've allowed 100+ pts in 13 of the past 17 games and two of the exceptions saw them allow 98 and 99. 10* Over Heat/Hornets |
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12-25-16 | Clippers v. Lakers OVER 213.5 | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
10* Over LA Clippers/LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Even after factoring in the alleged home court advantage for the Lakers here (both teams play their home games at Staples Center), this line seems way too low. Then again, considering the Clippers could be w/o both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, maybe the oddsmakers do have it right. We know Griffin is out and Paul is currently listed as questionable due to a hamstring issue. Playing without either on Friday night, the team turned in a real dud, losing at home to lowly Dallas by a score of 90-88. That game obviously stayed well Under the total. So did the Lakers' game Friday night, a 109-90 loss at Orlando. But given what we've come to expect from the two teams over the course of the season and the fact the rivalry is long overdue for an Over, I'm going w/ the Over here. The Clippers have not gone Under in consecutive games for some time now. In fact, the last time it happened was November 7th & 9th. It's been 23 games w/o it happening again. Obviously, not having Paul or Griffin would be a big blow to the offense. But on Friday, the bench actually scored 52 points while Jamal Crawford had a team-high 26. The Lakers are an awful team defensively as they rank 29th in efficiency, allowing 1.1 points per possession. They allow more than 110 points per game and have allowed at least 100 in 12 of the past 13 games, their lone win (over Philly) being the exception. The Clippers are 14-3 Over when facing a team w/ a losing record and if Paul does play, it will simply be an added bonus! Defensively, the Clippers started the year at an incredible pace. They have since fallen off, somewhat dramatically. They still rank fifth overall in efficiency, but considering they were 1st less than a month ago and on an almost historic pace, that's a pretty severe drop. The team they last played (Dallas) ranks near the bottom of the league offensively, so I consider that a one night reprieve for the Clips. The Lakers can score as they average 109.8 PPG here at Staples Center. They did not shoot well in the Orlando game (35.6 FG%), but should certainly improve upon that here and the team is also getting Julius Randle back in the lineup. 10* Over Clippers/Lakers |
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12-23-16 | Warriors v. Pistons OVER 212.5 | Top | 119-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* Over Warriors/Pistons (7:35 ET): The Warriors went Under again last night (ninth straight time!) and I'm sad to report that I was caught holding an Over ticket on that one. Though I'd like to point out that at the outset, it certainly did appear as if the game w/ the Nets would be quite the high-scoring affair. It was 34-33 (Nets!) after the first quarter, but from there every quarter would see one of the two teams score less than 20 points. Two of those belonged to Brooklyn, who was held to just 36 pts in the second half! As I mentioned in yday's analysis, Golden State not only ranks #2 in offensive efficiency, they are also #2 in defensive efficiency. But in the second night of a back to back and w/ Cleveland on deck (X-Mas day game!), I expect that defensive efficiency NOT to be on full display here. Take the Over. The Pistons are in a terrible way right now as they've gone 0-4 SU, ATS their L4 games, all of them double digit losses. HC Stan Van Gundy ripped the team earlier this week, but it seemed to have no effect as they lost 98-86 to Memphis here at home on Wednesday. It was the third consecutive game scoring 90 or fewer points and fifth time in the last six getting held to 95 or fewer. That and the fact the L4 head to head meetings between these two squads have all stayed Under certainly appears to set a somewhat "dangerous" precedent for this play. But ... note that Detroit is 13-3 Over the L3 seasons following three consecutive Unders. That includes a perfect 4-0 mark this season! We need not worry about Golden State's offense most likely; they come in averaging a league-leading 117.4 points per game (4.4 more than every other team) and their games, on average, are also the highest scoring in the league. Save for games against Utah and Memphis, both of whom are top three in defensive efficiency, this will be the lowest O/U line set for any of the nine straight games that have gone Under. Detroit is not a top three team in defensive efficiency, but they are seventh. Still, they've also faced off w/ some pretty weak offensive opponents of late. In a game I think will be "closer than the experts think," I look for an Over. 10* Over Warriors/Pistons |
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12-22-16 | Warriors v. Nets OVER 231 | Top | 117-101 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
10* Over Warriors/Nets (7:35 ET): Believe it or not, Golden State has now gone Under in eight straight games. While, historically speaking, the team may be the greatest ever in terms of offensive efficiency over a two-year span, they are quite underrated defensively as well. This year finds them currently ranked #2 in defensive efficiency w/ only Memphis ahead of them. In the last game, they held Utah to only 74 points on 35.5% shooting. It was the third consecutive game where the Warriors allowed 90 points or less. But here, they should have a "willing dance partner" in terms of an Over as Brooklyn is pretty horrific at the defensive end (28th in efficiency) and I see the Dubs scoring a lot more here than they did vs. Utah on Tuesday. Take the Over. Brooklyn is actually fairly competitive at home (6-7 SU) as opposed to the road where they are an awful 1-13 SU. Surprisingly, they are averaging 106.6 points per game this year. However, that scoring average has largely been rendered irrelevant due to a non-existent defense that is permitting an ugly 114.4 PPG. That's the most allowed per game in the league right now, which quite obviously can be problematic when facing the Warriors. Last Saturday, Golden State faced one of the two teams that rank below the Nets in defensive efficiency (Portland) and ended up scoring 135 pts. Thus, they can essentially "name" their point total here. I certainly expect them to top their YTD average of 117.4 PPG (1st in the league) in this one. Since November 14th, the Nets have allowed at least 122 points eight times. With the highest scoring offense facing off with the worst defense (in terms of PPG allowed), half of the equation here is more than taken care of. But what about the other end of the floor? Well, despite the Warriors' defensive exploits mentioned above, I think it may prove difficult for them to hold a third consecutive opponent below 40% shooting. Brooklyn is due for an uptick in its own shooting percentage as they were held below 40% in their last game, a 116-104 loss at Toronto. This may be one of the highest totals we've seen all year, but these are the two teams whose games average the most total PPG in the league. Brooklyn is also playing at the fastest pace in the league while Golden State is third. That means plenty of possessions. The Nets are 11-1 Over this year vs. the Western Conference. 10* Over Warriors/Nets |
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12-20-16 | Nuggets v. Clippers OVER 216.5 | 102-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
8* Over Nuggets/Clippers (10:35 ET): Recent Denver games have not lacked for scoring. In fact, each of the last three (they've won all of them) have seen a MINIMUM of 224 total points scored. The lowest scoring one was last night's 117-107 victory over Dallas where they shot a blistering 57% from the floor, but also allowed 53.1% shooting by the Mavericks. I don't think for a second that Denver will be able to match last night's offensive output, but from a totals perspective, that will be counteracted by the fact they figure to give up far more points tonight to the Clippers. Remember that Dallas is near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency. The Clippers are top five. Therefore, I expect them to shred an unrested Nuggets defense and score a boatload of points in the process. That will lead to this game going Over the total. Like the Nuggets, the Clippers have seen an abundance of high scoring affairs recently as well. Sunday's loss to the Wizards was a 117-110 final. There has been only one game all month where they failed to score at least 100 points and that was a loss to Golden State where they finished w/ 98. Over the last five games, they are averaging 115.8 PPG on nearly 50% shooting from the floor. There's no Blake Griffin for the time being, but I still anticipate the points to keep coming. Defensively though, there is a concern as they just allowed the Wizards to shoot 80% percent (!) from the floor in the fourth quarter on Sunday. There has definitely been some "slippage" at the end of the floor since starting the year #1 in defensive efficiency. Six of the last seven times these teams have met, the Under has cashed (includes one push). But none of those meetings took place this season. Note that Denver did not shoot the ball well in any of the three head to head meetings last year, making less than 40% of their field goal attempts every time. They were particularly brutal from three-point range. Also, free throw shooting numbers were pretty ugly for both sides in those three meetings. We should see better percentages tonight and an Over to boot. Over is 13-2 when Clips are facing a team w/ a losing record & 8-1 when Nuggets are facing a team w/ a winning record. 8* Over Nuggets/Clippers |
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12-17-16 | Rockets v. Wolves UNDER 221 | Top | 111-109 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
10* Under Rockets/T'wolves (8:05 ET): This Houston team is red hot right now. They have yet to lose in the month of December, winning nine straight, a streak which began w/ a win over the Warriors. Predictably, the offense has been very efficient under HC Mike D'Antoni as they rank third in the league plus are averaging 122.8 points per game. They just set an NBA record w/ 24 made three-pointers in a 122-100 rout of the Pelicans last night, so Minnesota better be ready to play some defense. The T'wolves are in off a rare win, having upset Chicago 99-94 (rallied from 21 down) in a national TV game earlier in the week. They've had three days off, rare in today's NBA, so they should indeed be ready. I'm thinking Under in this matchup as the total seems too high despite the Rockets exploits. Minnesota has plenty of young talent, but it has yet to translate into wins, especially here at home where they're only 3-9 SU. They'd lost eight of nine overall before beating the Bulls Tuesday, a game where they allowed only 94 points (fewest in any game this month). It's not like the T'wolves aren't used to facing some of the top offenses in the game, in fact, they've recently taken on the two teams that rank higher the Houston in efficiency, Toronto and Golden State. They did allow an average of 120 PPG in those contests (both losses), but I like the idea that they're more rested coming into this game while the opponent is not. On offense, the team is averaging only 99.6 points its last five games. The two times we've seen a O/U line of 220+ for this team (both times against Golden State), the Under is 2-0. These teams have met seven times the last two seasons and the Over is a perfect 7-0. But, it's "high time" for things to go the other way. This will likely close as the highest total for any of those past matchups. Houston, playing the second game of a back to back, isn't likely to come anywhere close to last night's awesome three-point production (they attempted 61!). By the way, the Under did cash in last night's game as they held the Pelicans to just 100 points. That was the fifth time in the last six games, the Rockets held their opponent to 100 pts or less. 10* Under Rockets/T'wolves |
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12-16-16 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 187 | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
8* Under Mavericks/Jazz (10:35 ET): When one of the least efficient offenses meets one of the slowest paced teams, the elements for a successful Under bet are definitely present. That's precisely what we have here as Dallas (29th in off efficiency) meets Utah (29th in pace) Friday night in ESPN. Oh by the way, the Mavericks are the one team in the league playing at a slower pace than Utah, so we actually have the two slowest paced teams in the league facing off here! Thus, the number of possessions should be severely limited. The Jazz have also gone Under in three consecutive games thanks to some pretty fantastic defense. Take the Under here. This Jazz team is quite good. They've won 9 of 11 overall. One of the two losses was to Golden State while the other came by a single point (vs. Miami). They are off B2B 20-pt victories coming into tonight, both of those taking place at home. The first was Sacramento, then Oklahoma City. Those two opponents were limited to 84 and 89 points respectively on 37% shooting. Though tonight's total is lower than either of those games, I can safely project that Utah will not match its shooting from Wednesday night where they blitzed the Thunder to the tune of 58.3% from the floor. I see them having little difficulty keeping the Mavs in check here, considering they already did it earlier in the year (more on that in a bit). Dallas is not a good team, particularly on the road. I played against the Wednesday as they lost at home to Detroit, 95-85. It was their fifth time being held under 90 points in the last nine games. On the road this year, things have grown real dire as in a 1-11 SU record w/ just 91.1 PPG scored. Utah is allowing just 93.0 PPG at home this year, so again, they'll have little trouble containing the Dallas offense. Overall, Utah ranks #3 in defensive efficiency. As briefly touched upon above, these teams did meet here in Salt Lake earlier this year and the final result was 97-81 Jazz w/ the Mavs shooting a woeful 42.9% from the floor, including 7 of 26 from three-point land. 8* Under Mavericks/Jazz |
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12-15-16 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 221 | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* Under Blazers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): These teams have met twice previously this season w/ the Over cashing both times. But from the Under's "perspective," I believe the third time will be the charm as this is (predictably) the highest O/U line yet. Portland, while there still is much work to be done, seems to have gotten its defense under some control. They just held Oklahoma City to 95 points in a much needed win Tuesday night, at home, on ESPN. As for Denver, they are returning home from a six-game trip that had them out East and lethargy could certainly be a factor in their first game back in the thin air. They scored only 92 pts in an embarrassing loss at Dallas the last time we saw them. Take the Under here. Though the Over cashed in the November 13th meeting, it's not like either of these two sides shot the ball well when they faced off last. Both were sub 40% from the field, but through sheer volume (58 total attempts), the three-ball was a factor. So too were free throws as they combined for 48 makes from the line. I envision we'll see a decrease there. In Denver's last game, they made only 15 FT's. Portland shot 53.8% from the floor against OKC, but I can't see them matching that percentage here now that they're out on the road. These are two of the top Over teams in the league right now, but this is also among the highest totals either has seen all season. Denver may have been a disaster defensively in its last game, giving up 65 first half points to Dallas, but there is no way they'll be that bad again here, I guarantee you. There is reportedly a "pretty good" chance that guard Gary Harris will return tonight after missing the last 16 games. Portland will also again be w/o forward Al Farouq-Aminu, who was a late scratch vs. OKC. Something else I'd like to point out is that while the first meeting of the year, played on 10.29 here in Denver, went Over, that was only because of overtime. It was a 104-104 game at the end of regulation. The Under has cashed three of the four times Portland has been off a DD win this season. 10* Under Blazers/Nuggets |
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12-13-16 | Grizzlies v. Cavs UNDER 200.5 | 86-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
8* Under Grizzlies/Cavs (7:05 ET): While I see the Cavs winning this one in blowout fashion, it won't be in their usual high-scoring mode. That's because they are facing a Memphis team that not only has gone Under in four consecutive contests, but also plays at the third slowest pace in the entire league. Earlier in the year, Cleveland did score 128 pts on the team that plays at the slowest pace in the league (Dallas), but the Mavs are terrible. The Grizzlies can certainly be more stout defensively as they showed Saturday when they held Golden State (#1 in offensive efficiency) to a shockingly low 89 points. The game before they held Portland to only 86 points on 30.5% shooting. Take the Under here (and the number is dropping!). Cleveland has scored at least 100 pts in all but three games this year and two were losses, one w/o LeBron James. So it's clear that we'll need Memphis to struggle offensively in this one and fortunately that's what I'm projecting. Yes, the Cavs have been a bit disappointing at the defensive end of the floor this year, but that's due in part to building large leads after the first quarter. That's not how I see this particular game unfolding. Memphis plays at too slow a pace for that to happen. But that being said, they also are shooting a pretty woeful 42% from the floor for the season and just 40.9% in the L5 games. I should also point out that Memphis games are currently the lowest scoring in the league at 195.6 PPG. The fact that the Grizzlies have also held their last five opponents to an average of 94.8 PPG on 39.2% shooting also bodes well here. Cleveland cannot possibly maintain its ridiculously hot shooting from the L2 games as it shot 55.4% against Miami and then 57.5% against Charlotte. LeBron James, as per usual, was just sensational vs. the Hornets w/ a 44-9-10 statline and he did so on 17 of 24 shooting. But as phenomenal a performer as he is, he likely won't be duplicating that here. Also encouraging is that the Cavs have held their last five opponents to 42.6% shooting from the field. 8* Under Grizzlies/Cavs |
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12-12-16 | Nets v. Rockets UNDER 228 | Top | 118-122 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* Under Nets/Rockets (8:05 ET): I fully understand that the matchup of Brooklyn's awful defense against Houston's efficient offense could be problematic when playing the Under, but the fact remains this is one of the highest totals we've seen all year in the NBA. Neither team's games are within 10 points of where this number might close at, so the value is on the Under here. Granted, Brooklyn has been a bit of an "Over machine" lately, going that way in each of the last four games and the last one saw them give up 130 to San Antonio. That makes them 10-0 Over this year vs. Western Conference foes! But this is set to be the highest O/U line for any Nets game all season and it will be close for the Rockets as well (only a game vs. GSW currently higher). Again, the value here is on the Under. Entering tonight's action, the Nets are allowing a league-high 114.9 points per game. That number jumps to 118.2 on the road and what's really frightening is that they've allowed at least 111 in 13 consecutive games. But it still takes "two to tango" and even if the Nets' defensive ineptitude continues, I do not believe it will be enough to send this game Over. I say that because all of a sudden Houston has held three consecutive opponents under 100 points and that includes Oklahoma City. The Under has actually cashed more times this season for the Rockets than has the Over. It's been over a year since these teams have played, but note that the totals for last year's two meetings were both sub-210. Fast starts to games have become commonplace for the Rockets, including a 36-point first quarter effort vs. Dallas on Saturday. But note that for the rest of the game, the team scored "only" 73 points. They went 19 of 37 from three-point range, a number of makes and percentage that I do not believe they'll be able to equal here. I also can't see the Nets being as porous as they were Saturday when they let the Spurs shoot 53.2% from the floor. Over the L5 games, Brooklyn is shooting just 42.7% from the field itself, so again, it's them failing to do "their part" that should cost Over bettors here. The number is just too high. 10* Under Nets/Rockets |
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12-10-16 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 209.5 | Top | 89-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): This total is too low for a Warriors game. The best team in the league sees an average of 225 total points scored in their game (league-high) due to an other-worldly offense that is easily the league's best. They average 119.3 points per game and 1.15 points per possession. Ironically, tonight brings a date w/ a team whose games - on average - are among the lowest scoring in the entire league (only Detroit & Orlando lower). I feel this total is so low, not because of the Grizzlies' season-long averages, but due to the last game w/ Portland, which was an 88-86 final. Like Golden State, the Blazers are typically involved in high-scoring affairs, but the difference is Memphis won't be holding the Warriors to 88 points. Take the Over. I admit that Memphis' home games do tend to be really low scoring. They average just 189.2 points per game, which again ranks among the lowest averages in the entire league. The game w/ Portland Thursday was even lower scoring than that average, but note that both sides were just dreadful shooting the ball. The Grizzlies finished at just 35.6% while the Blazers were a heinous 30.5%! In fact, each of Memphis' last three opponents have shot below 40%. Good luck holding the Warriors anywhere close to that percentage. The two-time defending Western Conference Champs are above 50% for the year. Since starting the year 0-3 ATS, GSW has been held under 115 points only four times. One of those four times was Thursday as they faced a stout Jazz team. But that was a game they scored 65 first half points and somewhat coasted from there. The 41 point second half was among their lowest scoring halves in any game this season. While the Under is 5-3 in the Dubs' last eight games, four of those Under came in games where the total was 217.5 points or higher. As it stands now, this would be the third lowest total for any Golden State game this season. It'll be the highest for Memphis, but considering these teams went Over a total of 213 in the final meeting last season, it's not high enough. 8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies |
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12-08-16 | Nuggets v. Wizards UNDER 219 | Top | 85-92 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
8* Under Nuggets/Wizards (7:05 ET): I think that by any objective measure, you would have to qualify both of these teams as being major disappointments this season. Denver, in the middle of a six-game road trip, just lost at lowly Brooklyn last night. They are just 8-14 on the season while being outscored by 4.2 points per 100 possessions, which would place them at 25th in the rankings. Not far ahead would be Washington, who lost here at home to Orlando two nights ago, despite John Wall scoring 52 points. I had the Over in that game and Over it went (by 40 points!), but tonight I'm going the other way as I feel the Nuggets could be tired and the Wizards should see decreases in scoring - on both ends - from their last game. This number just seems too high. Take the Under. The last four times these teams have met, the Over has cashed. But the number here is several points higher than it was for either of LY's meetings. Washington has also gone Over in four straight, but this qualifies as one of their highest O/U lines of the year. I found only two that were higher (vs. Houston, Phoenix) and both of those stayed Under. As for Denver, last night's loss to the Nets was a 116-111 final, so clearly that had an impact on the number here as well. Interestingly enough, the Nuggets shot only 40% from the field in Brooklyn. They did make 11 three-pointers, however. There was also a combined 41 free throws made in the contest between the two teams. While an optimist would like to call for better shooting from the Nuggets tonight, the fact is they are shooting only 42.5% from the field away from home for the season. Wall is clearly unlikely to match his offensive production from the last game. Outside of Wall, the rest of the Wizards didn't do much Tuesday as they combined for just 64 total points on 26 of 62 shooting (42%). Meanwhile, I can't imagine the defense being as horrendous here as it was vs. Orlando where they allowed the Magic to score a season-high in points (124) on better than 51% shooting. Both coaches, I expect, will place an emphasis on the defensive end of the floor for this matchup. The Under is 4-0 this season in Washington home games when the total is 210 or higher. 8* Under Nuggets/Wizards |
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12-07-16 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 217 | Top | 126-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
8* Over Cavaliers/Knicks (8:05 ET): After playing the Knicks Over last night (and winning), I'll do the same here as they face a Cleveland team that should easily exploit their defensive shortcomings. New York's already woeful defensive efficiency rating (1.07 pts per possession) certainly didn't improve after last night's showing, where they allowed 103 pts to a Miami team not exactly known for lighting up the scoreboard. The Cavs come in sporting the 4th most efficient offensive in the game and are averaging 110.3 points per game this year. They should have no problems scoring here and even better is the fact that Cavs' defensive numbers have been far from impressive this year. That makes this an easy Over call. The Cavs won't have JR Smith tonight or for the foreseeable future, but I don't see the team having much difficulty scoring here w/ LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love leading the way. High totals have not bothered the World Champs as the Over is 6-2 this season for them when the O/U is 210+. With three consecutive losses, there was a little bit of panic going on in Cleveland, but the team turned in a strong effort Monday night in Toronto, scoring 116 pts in a key road win. James scored a season-high w/ 34 pts, Love had his 13th double double (28-14) and for a 10th straight game, Irving scored at least 20. Again, the Cavs should have no problems at all scoring on a Knicks team that is 27th in defensive efficiency. I'd be inclined to call for a Cleveland rout here, but their lack of defense has been troubling. Over the L5 games, they've allowed an average of 112.4 PPG. The Knicks may give up plenty of points, but they can score as well as is evident by the fact they've topped 100 pts in 11 consecutive games now. Only once during those 11 games have they NOT allowed more than 100 as well. I cashed the Over (barely) when these teams met on Opening Night, the result of which was a 117-88 Cleveland win and cover. I'll call for the Knicks to score a lot more tonight. Prior to Opening Night, the Under had cashed seven straight times between these two, so it's "high time" we see a reversal of that trend. 8* Over Cavaliers/Knicks |
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12-06-16 | Knicks v. Heat OVER 203.5 | Top | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
10* Over Knicks/Heat (7:35 ET): The Knicks are clear overachievers in my book as they are two games above .500 despite being outscored by 2.7 pts per 100 possessions. Their record is owed to a 6-1 mark vs. teams below .500 and a 3-0 mark in games decided by three points or less. So regression should be in the cards, sooner or later. However, I'm not sure about tonight as they are facing a Heat team that's below .500 and really struggling. What I am sure about, however, is the fact the Knicks stink defensively. They are 27th in efficiency, giving up 1.07 points per possession. Meanwhile, Miami is also slipping on that end of the court as they've allowed 110 or more points three times in the last five games. Take the Over here. Totals for recent Heat games have been all over the map, largely dependent on the opponent that they have played. Last time out, they ended up playing a low-scoring game w/ Portland, a game that had a very high total. While it's a bit concerning they were only able to score 92 points against the worst defensive team in the league, the opposite could be said for the team's previous game where they scored 111 against a very good Utah defense. That game sailed Over a low total. This one is in the middle and I think it's safe to say the Knicks should shoot better than Portland did on Saturday. The Blazers, despite winning, shot only 40.4% from the floor. Meanwhile, the Heat will shoot better than the Knicks previous opponent (Sacramento) did. The Kings finished a horrific 32.3% from the field. Though the Knicks limited Sacramento to only 32.3% shooting, note that DeMarcus Cousins still had a big game w/ 36 points and 12 rebounds. That followed Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns going for 47 points and 18 rebounds against them. Miami has a strong post player in Hassan Whiteside, who averages 17.8 points, 14.9 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game, so look for a big night from him. The Under was 4-0 in the four meetings last year between these old rivals, but those were two very different teams. Miami isn't nearly as strong defensively. The Knicks have scored 100+ points in ten consecutive games and w/ their own defensive ineptitude, this one should sail Over the number. 10* Over Knicks/Heat |
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12-06-16 | Magic v. Wizards OVER 199 | Top | 124-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
8* Over Magic/Wizards (7:05 ET): I surely believed that I was holding a winning Over ticket on the Magic's last game (Sunday) when the score was 78-73 (in their favor) after three quarters. The total was only 195.5 points there, but unfortunately they and the Pistons combined for only 39 fourth quarter points. Of course, Orlando won't complain as they managed to upset what had been a red hot Detroit team as seven-point underdogs. Tonight, it's a trip to the Nation's Capital to take on the reeling Wizards, who just played last night and won 118-113 in Brooklyn. Ironically, the Wiz have posted B2B wins only one time all year and that came at the Magic's expense! I don't want to lay the number here, but at the same time I don't want to back Orlando off a SU dog win. Therefore, we turn to the total and my read here is the same as it was for the Magic's last game. Take the Over. Admittedly, the Under is now 9-2 in Magic road games and this team is rated 29th in offensive efficiency, just ahead of Philadelphia. But the O/U lines are starting to get lower and we can now take advantage. This is already the third meeting of the year between these Southeast Division rivals and while the first two (both played in Orlando) stayed Under, you should expect better all-around shooting tonight. In the first meeting, neither side shot 40% from the field. That's rare. The rematch, played on November 25th, saw them combine to go a woeful 13 of 52 from three-point range. Sunday saw the Magic shoot 53.2% from the field in Detroit. The opponent here is more conducive for an Orlando Over than it was Sunday. Washington gives up plenty of points, as we saw last night. For the year, they are allowing 106.2 PPG, which is bottom 10 in the league. They just allowed 113 last night to a Brooklyn team which ranks pretty low in offensive efficiency. It was their third straight Over, all of those game seeing both them and the opponent top 100 points. The Over is 3-1 this season when Washington is playing in the second game of a back to back and 26-17 L3 seasons in the situation. The Wiz are shooting 37.7% from three-point range at home, but the fact they allow an even higher percentage should ensure this game is higher scoring than expected. 8* Over Magic/Wizards |
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12-05-16 | Celtics v. Rockets UNDER 218.5 | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
10* Under Celtics/Rockets (8:05 ET): Both of these teams are pretty bad defensively, but I believe the number is too high here. Houston has gone Over in six straight games, but the Under is 14-3 their L17 times hosting Boston and 3-0 the past four meetings overall (one push). Furthermore, the Celtics have been an Under team for much of this season, at one point going that way in nine consecutive games. The Over is 4-1 their L5 games, but those lines were much lower than this one. Take the Under. Houston is returning home from a very successful road trip that saw them go 4-1 SU/ATS including a win over Golden State. Throughout the trip, they faced some of the highest scoring teams in the league, such as Sacramento, Portland, Golden State and Denver. Those teams are also known for giving up their fair share as well. Sacramento, Denver and Portland all rank in the bottom eight in the league in defensive efficiency. Boston is only 18th, but they've shown much improvement after a bad start to the year. They did just give up 106 pts to the Sixers, but that was owed to uncharacteristically good Philly three-point shooting (15 of 33). The Under is 6-2 this year for the Celtics if they gave up 105+ pts the previous game and its 7-2 when the total is 210 pts or higher. Houston will of course jack plenty of three-pointers here as they've made at least 10 in 19 consecutive games, a NBA record. But something that is interesting here is that both teams rank outside the top 10 in pace of play, meaning the number of possessions could affect this game somewhat significantly. Don't be surprised if the Rockets come out a tad bit lethargic after a somewhat grueling road trip. They had, at one point, gone Under in six straight games last month. Many of the totals during that streak were similar to this one. 10* Under Celtics/Rockets |
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12-04-16 | Magic v. Pistons OVER 193.5 | Top | 98-92 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
8* Over Magic/Pistons (6:05 ET): Detroit has gotten on quite the roll and turned in perhaps their finest effort to date on Friday, beating Atlanta by 36. That makes it five wins and covers in the L6 games overall and the last three have all come on the road as underdogs. Thus it certainly seems to be a favorable setup Sunday evening as they return home (where they are 7-2 SU/ATS for the year) to face an opponent they have pretty well dominated the last few seasons (7-1 SU/ATS vs. Orlando since 2014-15). But that being said, I'm shying away from the side here (even though my numbers indicate the Pistons may be undervalued) and instead turn my attention to the total. Take the Over here, as I believe the O/U line to be too low. The Magic have primarily been an Under team this year. That's the way the total has gone in each of their last three games, not to mention 8 of the last 10. A big reason for this is they average only 93.0 PPG and rank 30th (i.e. last) in offensive efficiency. While I do worry about the fact that Detroit is allowing only 89.0 PPG at home this year, I still believe this total is just too low. It is among the lowest for either side this year. It was a 108-82 Pistons' victory in the second game of the season, so the total here opened a few points lower. Note that in the first meeting, the Magic shot just 34.7% from the floor. I expect improvement there, plus I also expect the teams to combine for more than 18 total free throws, which is how few we saw back on October 28th. The Magic did just top 100 pts for only the fifth time this season on Friday, but for a second time it was against Philadelphia. Still, they'll be facing a Pistons team that has gone Over in three straight and five of its last six overall. It's been back to back 121-point efforts against the Celtics and Hawks and they come in averaging a healthy 102.0 PPG here at home. While the Under has been profitable for both them at home and the Magic on the road, I feel this is a "tipping point" of sorts w/ the number simply being too low. Finally, there is a chance that PG Reggie Jackson might make his season debut here for Detroit. 8* Over Magic/Pistons |
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12-03-16 | Suns v. Warriors OVER 228.5 | Top | 109-138 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* Over Suns/Warriors (10:35 ET): Oddsmakers can't make this total high enough in my opinion as we have the most efficient offense in the game (Golden State) going up against a team giving up 111.9 PPG already. Furthermore, Phoenix is playing at the fastest pace in the league. These Pacific Division rivals already met once this year (on 11.13) and it was the Warriors coming out ahead 133-120. Even if this ends up as the highest total of the NBA season to date, I don't believe it will be high enough. Take the Over. The Warriors saw their 12-game win streak come to an end Thursday w/ a 132-127 double overtime loss to Houston. It was 113-113 at the end of regulation, so it was admittedly a bad beat for Under bettors there (O/U Line was 232.5). But there should be no issues scoring here against a Suns team that gives up a ton of points (23rd in efficiency) due to the fast pace they play at. Speaking of pace, the Warriors are third in that department, so there should be plenty of possessions here. Golden State scores 120 PPG at home, by the way. The Warriors also give up 109.6 PPG here at home, so Phoenix should score their fair share as well. The Suns come in averaging 107.9 PPG on the road. Over these last 13 games, Golden State has scored 115 points all but three times. They'll probably need closer to 125 here, but that should be no problem against this opponent. They made 16 threes and shot 51% overall in the first meeting with the Suns this year. Phoenix also shot 51% from the floor in that game. Again, after 253 total pts were scored in that game, the oddsmakers needed to adjust more. 10* Over Suns/Warriors |
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11-30-16 | Hawks v. Suns OVER 209 | Top | 107-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
8* Over Hawks/Suns (9:05 ET): The Hawks are in the midst of quite the slump right now as they've lost six of their last seven games overall. This was a team that had gotten off to a tremendous start, even ranking as high as #2 in efficiency. But their recent tailspin can largely all be tied to a decline on the offensive end of the floor, as they still rank #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Thus, you may not be surprised to learn this team has gone Under in each of its last nine games. But tonight, they have an opponent that should allow for them to get back on track and score plenty of points in the process. That would be Phoenix, who is giving up over 112 PPG while playing at the fastest pace in the league. Take the Over here. The Hawks actually didn't have a bad scoring night Monday in Golden State. What happened was Golden State shot much worse than you'd expect at 43.5% from the field for the game. Truth be told, the Hawks didn't shoot that well either at 41.9%. Scoring also curtailed in the fourth quarter w/ only 44 total pts scored. But again, the offensive woes should be rectified here against a Phoenix team that just gave up 120 pts in its last game. The Suns have actually given up that many in five of their last nine games overall! As mentioned above, the Suns are currently playing at the fastest pace in the entire league. The Hawks aren't too far behind at seventh, so there should be plenty of possessions here, which obviously should lead to increased scoring. The Suns have gone Over in all five games this season when facing a team w/ a winning record. This is a pretty low total by their standards. Not only do they give up over 112 PPG, but they also score 106.1 PPG. It was poor all-around shooting in both matchups last season, which means the Under has now cashed four straight times when Atlanta and Phoenix have played. But I'll call for that streak to end tonight. 8* Over Hawks/Suns |
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11-29-16 | Clippers v. Nets UNDER 217.5 | Top | 122-127 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
10* Under Clippers/Nets (7:35 ET): The 14-4 Clippers began the year at an unsustainable clip, posting a defensive efficiency rating that would have put LY's Spurs to shame. So, it's not a huge surprise to find them regressing of late. However, losses to both Detroit and Indiana on the current trip are a bit concerning. Particularly the performance Sunday vs. the Pacers where they finished w/ only 70 points and shot just 31.4%. It was the franchise's first time scoring that few since '03 and it was just the 10th time in Doc Rivers' tenure that they turned the ball over 20+ times. The Clips continue to fly all over the country w/ a stop in Brooklyn tonight and while this SHOULD be an easy one for the road team, I'm looking at the total instead. The Nets are in an awful way right now as they've lost seven straight and the best they've done at the betting window during this time is manage one push (0-6-1 ATS). They rank at the opposite end of the spectrum in defensive efficiency (29th) compared to the Clippers, so obviously this shapes up as a very bad matchup for the hosts, who have already lost by 32 to LA once this year. That game started the seven-game slide and five more have been by double digits. In four of the last five games, Brooklyn has allowed the opponent to shoot 55% or better (!) from the floor. Despite that, I do NOT envision the Clips topping their own shooting from the previous game w/ the Nets, which was 53.3% overall and 56% from three-point range. (They were also 17 of 21 from the FT line). Brooklyn is a perfect 7-0 Over against Western Conference teams this year, but 5-1 Under the L6 times they've been a home dog of at least 12.5 points. So, like the defensive efficiency numbers, something will have to give here. While the Clips offense was dreadful the last game, their defense remains #2 in efficiency for the year. Brooklyn actually made 10 three-pointers against them in that previous meeting (on 33 attempts!), a number I imagine will decrease tonight. The Clippers scored 71 pts in the first half of that previous meeting as well, another number that likely won't be approached again here. LA's defense wins out tonight and two teams that have been going Over a lot recently conspire to stay Under the total. 10* Under Clippers/Nets |
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11-28-16 | Hawks v. Warriors OVER 219 | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
10* Over Hawks/Warriors (10:35 ET): What an interesting matchup we have here as it's a battle of the most efficient offense and the most efficient defense in the entire league. The fact that the Hawks own the latter distinction (allow just .97 pts per possession) is of little consolation, however, to a team that comes in as losers in five of their last six games. They fell last night in Los Angeles, not to the Clippers, but rather 109-94 to the Lakers. The fact that Atlanta has been held under 100 pts in every game during this 1-5 SU slide is a big reason why the Under is now 8-0 their last eight games. They should score more tonight, but they'll of course give up a lot more points as well and thus I'm on the Over here. Golden State is tops in the league at 1.15 points per possession. Thats by far and away #1 as Cleveland is #2, averaging 1.11. With Kevin Durant becoming more and more fully integrated, this has a chance to be the greatest offensive team of all-time. To put that efficiency rating into some perspective, the most efficient offense we've ever seen is the 2009-10 Phoenix Suns at 1.12. The fact that the Warriors are ahead of last year's pace offensively was to be expected, but should not be understated. This is a team that has not lost a game since November 4th. Since then, they've reeled off 11 consecutive victories while averaging an astounding 121.6 PPG. They've scored 115 in all but two of the games. Atlanta's offensive numbers took a massive hit w/ a dreadful outing Friday night in Utah where they finished w/ only 68 points on 31.1% shooting. Needless to say, that likely ends up being their worst offensive effort of the entire season. They improved somewhat last night against the Lakers, scoring 94, but I'd expect even more scoring here as GSW is allowing 107.7 PPG at home. Meanwhile, the Hawks defense which had been so good at the start of the year, has now allowed 100+ in five of the last seven games. The back to back scenario does them no favors here, even though they are 4-0 SU/ATS when playing w/o rest this season. I do think the Hawks will have more success on the interior tonight against the undersized Warriors and don't discount the impact of the Warriors fouling Dwight Howard a lot. They've done so in the past and if Howard can convert at any kind of competent level, then we'll be in good shape here. 10* Over Hawks/Warriors |
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11-27-16 | Rockets v. Blazers UNDER 223 | Top | 130-114 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* Under Rockets/Blazers (9:05 ET): This is a really high total, but considering Houston's reputation and Portland's results, that should not be a surprise. The Rockets, as you'd expect under HC Mike D'Antoni, are top five in the league in points per game. But don't think for a second the oddsmakers weren't anticipating this. The average total for their games has been 215 points and as a result, the Under 10-6 overall, including 7-1 when they're coming off a game where they scored 105+ points. Here, they are off a 117-104 win over Sacramento where they set a NBA record w/ 50 three-point attempts. Facing a Portland team that is playing - on average - the second highest scoring games in the league (trailing only Golden State), there is a recipe for a ton of points here. But the total is too high. Take the Under. The Blazers' defense, or rather lack of it, has been really bad. They are actually dead last in the league in efficiency, giving up 1.09 points per possession. They were recently torched by Cleveland (allowed 80 first half pts), a team that like Houston makes its living scoring off made baskets. But the defense was a lot better vs. New Orleans (allowed only 104 pts) on Friday. Note that despite all the poor defensive numbers, Portland games are still averaging just 222.2 PPG. I expect the defense to improve moving forward while their own scoring should decrease. The Under is 2-0 this year when they're off a double digit win. These teams did already meet this year and it was Houston winning 126-109 at home. That's a bad precedent from our perspective, but the likelihood of the teams combining to shoot 37 of 46 from the FT line again is small. That was Houston's second highest scoring game of the season. The number of three-pointers made by both teams - Houston in particular - that we've seen recently should start to decrease. On a sheer attempt basis, the Rockets probably won't come close to matching the number from the last game. Meanwhile, Portland will not dominate the interior here like they did vs. New Orleans. 10* Under Rockets/Blazers |
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11-25-16 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 203.5 | Top | 105-89 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
8* Under Bulls/76ers (7:35 ET): The last seven times that these teams have met, the Over has cashed every time. But I look for a lower scoring game than expected tonight, off the quick holiday break. The Bulls have given up B2B 110 point games to the Lakers and Nuggets. But it's a likely decline in offensive production that I'd be most worried about if I were them. With the Sixers, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency, so don't look for them to put up 110 points here. In fact, they come in averaging only 98.1 PPG and the Bulls did have a four-game stretch recently where they held every opponent below 100. That was before running into the Clippers, Lakers and Nuggets, all high-scoring teams. This is a different kind of opponent. Take the Under. Chicago had covered six in a row before making the trip to Denver on Tuesday night. There, they held the Nuggets to just 19 pts in two of the four quarters (1st and 4th), but unfortunately they gave up a total of 72 points in the second and third. But again, it's the offense that has surprised me most in the early part of this season as the Bulls rank seventh in efficiency, but only 19th in true shooting percentage. They've been propped up a bit by outstanding free throw shooting (82.1%). But look for these numbers to take a hit due to some continued absences such as Doug McDermott and Michael Carter-Williams. The Under is 6-3-1 in their road games this season. The Sixers have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league for many years now. They are 29th in efficiency currently, ahead of only Orlando. They're one of just five teams averaging fewer than one point per possession. They just played one of the other four, Memphis, and while that game went Over you should note that was a byproduct of double overtime. Even w/ the additional 10 minutes played, the game still ended up only 104-99. It was 86-86 at the end of regulation w/ both teams shooting below 39% for the game. Joel Embid remains on a minutes restriction, which hurts, and he isn't even going to play tonight as a result. I see a sluggish, lower-scoring type affair tonight. 8* Under Bulls/76ers |
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11-21-16 | Warriors v. Pacers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 120-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under Warriors/Pacers (7:05 ET): Golden State comes off its seventh straight victory Saturday night, but failed to cover at Milwaukee, winning 124-121 as nine-point favorites. Shockingly, it was the third time in the past four games that they'd allowed 120 or more points and not one of those games went past regulation. Meanwhile, Indiana is off an overtime affair, as they won in Oklahoma City last night 115-111. It was their fourth OT game already this season. The score at the end of regulation was 103-103, so Over bettors needed the extra five minutes there. With the Pacers coming in as big underdogs tonight, that luxury probably cannot be relied upon and with a huge O/U line, I'm going Under in this one. Both teams are used to seeing high totals this year. The average O/U line for a Golden State game this year has been 222 and the Over is still 8-5. For Indiana, the average O/U line has been 211.5 and the Over is 8-6, but half of those Overs have come in games that went to OT. These teams met twice last year and the Over hit both times, but the number is now a few points higher tonight. That's despite the fact Indiana will be short-handed this evening. Both Paul George and CJ Miles will again be MIA and while the team was able to win in OKC w/o them last night, I don't see Jeff Teague going for 30 pts again here. By the way, the Under is 10-2 for Golden State when they're a road favorite of -12.5 or higher. As expected, Golden State has had no problems on the offensive end of the floor where they are #1 in efficiency, points per game and field goal percentage. Kevin Durant has scored 30+ five different times this season and he, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are all averaging at least 20 PPG for the season. But this team has been really good defensively each of the L2 years and I'd be a little concerned about the regression we've seen thus far at that end of the court. That said, I don't see Indiana shooting as well as Milwaukee did Saturday night and I can point to the fact the Warriors just held Boston to only 88 pts on Friday as a sign they can still get it done defensively. 8* Under Warriors/Pacers |
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11-18-16 | Clippers v. Kings UNDER 205.5 | Top | 121-115 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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11-16-16 | Spurs v. Kings OVER 195 | Top | 110-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
10* Over Spurs/Kings (10:35 ET): With the Warriors naturally receiving so much attention and the Clippers off to an incredible start, some will want to make the case that the Spurs are "down" right now. How soon we forget that this team thrashed the Warriors, in Golden State, on Opening Night! Including that 129-100 win, Greg Popovich's team is 5-0 SU and ATS on the road, so I wouldn't be panicking too much about the fact they have two losses at home. Defensively, this was the top team in the league last year (easily), but this year has seen them drop to sixth in efficiency. Offensively, they rank in the top 10. While the Under is 4-0 their past four games, I'm on the Over here as they face an opponent known for its lack of defense. Sacramento has not played since losing 122-120 in overtime at Portland Friday night. I'm proud to say I was on the Over in that game. The game-tying bucket by the Kings at the end of regulation ensured I would have a winning ticket. There's been only three games this season where the Kings have not given up 100+ pts in regulation. Two of those were against Phoenix and New Orleans, both of whom are among the worst teams in the league. Under Dave Joeger, there has been a concerted effort to slow down the pace, which is a bit concerning given how the Spurs also play at a slow pace, but the bottom line here is that the total is simply way too low. There have been just a dozen or so Kings' home games the L3 seasons where the total has been less than 200 pts. The Under is 4-0 the last four times these teams have played. Earlier this year, these teams matched up here in Sacramento and it ended up being 102-94 in favor of San Antonio. But the total there was 203, which is significantly higher than tonight's O/U line. Neither team shot particularly well on Oct 27, most notably Sacramento as they were just 40% from the field and 6 of 20 from three-point range. San Antonio was coming off the big win over Golden State there. I'll call for this to be the Spurs' best offensive game since the season opener and the Kings should score enough to do their part. 10* Over Spurs/Kings |
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11-14-16 | Nets v. Clippers OVER 214.5 | Top | 95-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
8* Over Nets/Clippers (10:35 ET): Let's take a moment to "tip our cap" to this start to the season the Clippers are having. Through 10 games, they are 9-1 SU and outscoring foes by an almost otherworldly 14.8 pts per 100 possessions. To put that number into some perspective, the Warriors finished +11.6 pts per 100 possessions in LY's record-breaking 73-9 SU finish. Granted, it's still a relatively small sample size thus far for LA, but clearly they are in a "good place" right now. Particularly on the defensive end where they are only allowing .927 points per possession. Again, to put the number into some perspective, San Antonio led the league LY by allowing only .966 pts per possession. Only one other team (Atlanta) allowed fewer than one point per possession last season. |
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11-11-16 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 209.5 | Top | 120-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
10* Over Kings/Blazers (10:05 ET): Things started quite well for Sacramento last night at home vs. the Lakers. In a nationally televised contest, they jumped out to a 30-16 lead after the first quarter and wound up leading by as many as 19. But the wheels came off in the second half, particularly in the fourth quarter where they were outscored 31-18. Overall, it was a 56-36 edge for the Lakers in the second half. The game, it should be pointed out, came nowhere close to the total of 211 as the final score was 101-91, meaning the Under won by 20 points. However, I highly doubt we'll be getting another 36 point half from the Kings in this one, especially facing a Blazers squad, who started the year with five straight Overs. Take the Over here. Portland was off yday, which was probably for the best, as they got clobbered 111-80 by the ridiculously hot Clippers Wednesday night. Again, like the Kings, we should clearly anticipate a rise in scoring from the Blazers here compared to the last game. They were an awful 35.2% from the floor vs. the Clips, including 6 of 30 (20%) from three-point range. It should be pointed out that the Clippers lead the league in defensive efficiency right now in almost other-worldly fashion. Sacramento ranks 23rd, which is actually two spots ahead of Portland. So, we have two offenses that would almost certainly bounce back, regardless of the opponent, but the bounce back here should be greater considering both are bottom eight in defensive efficiency. As I said earlier, the Blazers' first five games all went Over the total. The Clippers' game marked the first time all year that they failed to score at least 100 points in a game. They are averaging 106.9 PPG overall, but allowing 110.8. Their home games, all four of which have gone Over, have seen a combined average of 228.2 PPG. In six of nine games, they've allowed at least 110 points this year. Sacramento, fresh off matching its lowest scoring output of the year, hasn't been quite as bad defensively, but the Over is 17-8 for them L3 seasons when off a SU loss as a favorite. All four meetings between these two stayed Under last year, but this total is now lower than any of those four matchups. 10* Over Kings/Blazers |
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11-09-16 | Bulls v. Hawks OVER 204.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
10* Over Bulls/Hawks (7:35 ET): Atlanta is off a huge win here as they went to Cleveland last night and handed the Cavs their first loss of the season. Therefore, it's fair to question what they'll have left in the tank for this second of back to back games, at home against the Bulls. It has been a really impressive start to the season for the Hawks though, as they are 5-2 SU w/ the best point differential in the Eastern Conference (+9.6 PPG). They rank #7 in offensive efficiency and #4 in defensive efficiency. It's the latter I'd be more concerned about them maintaining here as Chicago comes in averaging more than 1.1 points per possession, third best in the league. They did just allow 106 pts to the #2 team in offensive efficiency (Cavs) last night. Take the Over here. Save for a 111-94 loss to Indiana on Saturday, the Bulls have hit 100+ points in every game this year. Save for the last one, a 112-80 beatdown of the Magic, every total has been higher than this one. The 112 pts scored against Orlando was not a season-high, but rather pretty "par for the course." The Bulls come in averaging 107.3 PPG thus far, a big reason why they are off to a winning start. Of course, they also lost three in a row at one point due to giving up an average of just under 112 PPG. It's a little bit surprising that only two Chicago games thus far have gone Over the total. By the way, the Over is 13-9 in Bulls' road games the L3 season if the total is between 200 and 204.5. The Hawks may rank highly in defensive efficiency, but they have still been giving up plenty of points, including 103.5 PPG at home. Over the L5 games, they have allowed 103.2 PPG. Now that's largely due to one really poor effort out in LA against the Lakers, who rang up 123 pts on them. A big key is the Hawks are playing fast as in the seventh fastest pace of play per game in the league. By the way, the Over is also 25-15 in the second game of back to backs for them. So far, they are shooting 47.4% for the season on all FG attempts, but also 38.9% from three-point range at home. Look for a pretty high-scoring game here. 10* Over Bulls/Hawks |
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11-09-16 | Rockets v. Spurs UNDER 211 | Top | 101-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
8* Under Rockets/Spurs (9:35 ET): San Antonio is 5-2 SU, but both losses have been bad and in each instance I'm proud to say I happened to be against them. Those losses were 106-91 at home to Utah (were -10.5) and then Saturday, 116-92 at home to the Clippers (-4.5). But that being said, this still remains as one of the top three teams in the league. Tonight, they will host a Houston team that is playing its fifth consecutive road game. Recent trips to the Alamo haven't gone well for the Rockets as they are 0-4 SU/ATS the L4 and all of those games have also gone Over the total. But for this venture, they arrive having gone Under each of the L3 games. This is a high total by San Antonio standards (admittedly not by Houston's though). Take the Under. The Spurs have actually gone Over in each of the last four games. But those totals were obviously all lower than this one. Their leading scorer Kawhi Leonard finished w/ only 14 points last game, not scoring at all after halftime. We'll likely see an increase in his individual offensive production here, but the team defense is what's set to improve the most from the last game. The Clippers torched the Spurs for 39 points in the first quarter and 73 in the first half. Despite that, this remains a Top 10 team in the league in defensive efficiency. They allow only 93.7 PPG at home. Houston has actually now stayed Under in five of seven games overall. That includes a 3-0 mark after allowing 105+ points last game, which they did here. They are also 4-0 Under after scoring 105+ points the last game. While this is a low total for them, lowest of the season in fact, it's also the staunchest defensive opponent they've faced so far. 8* Under Rockets/Spurs |
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11-01-16 | Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 199.5 | Top | 80-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
8* Under Grizzlies/T'wolves (8:05 ET): This is an early season rematch from a 102-98 Memphis win (at home) last Wednesday. It was the fifth consecutive time these two teams have conspired to go Over the total against one another. However, you should note that last week's meeting went Over by the slimmest of margins as the total was 199. The oddsmakers' projection is basically the same for tonight's tilt and with the Over now having gone a combined 5-0 in these teams games this season, I say we're about "due" for an Under to come through. Minnesota has been an early season disappointment. They're 0-2, but those losses have been by a combined seven points and both were on the road. This young team was projected for one of the biggest leaps in the standings this year and should compete for what will be a wide open race for the 8 seed in the Western Conference. I thought the projection of 40+ wins was a bit too high, personally, and am not surprised at the 0-2 start. Losing at Sacramento on Saturday had to be disappointing given they shot 51.4% from the floor. Even more concerning is that the team has led by at least 17 in both games. Free throw shooting has cost them as they're just 70% so far from the charity stripe. With Tom Thibodeau as the head coach, it stands to reason that the team's current 28th place ranking in defensive efficiency will improve moving forward. Memphis has yet to shoot better than 45% in any game, yet they are averaging a healthy 106.0 PPG. What makes that discrepancy all the more shocking is they currently rank 28th in pace of play. By the way, do you know one of the two teams currenty playing slower than the Grizzlies? That would be Minnesota! (Utah is the other). Of course, it doesn't take much digging to understand the Grizz's offensive numbers. Last time out, they went to overtime and beat Washington 112-103. That game saw Marc Gasol make a career-high four three-pointers, which is more than he even attempted all of last season! One came w/ just 15.7 seconds remaining in regulation, forcing OT. With two of the three slowest paced teams in the league facing off here, I smell an Under. 8* Under Grizzlies/T'wolves |
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10-31-16 | Bulls v. Nets UNDER 212 | Top | 118-88 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
8* Under Bulls/Nets (7:35 ET): For whatever reason, the Bulls always seem to go Over the total when facing teams from the Atlantic Division (27-8-2 Over L37 games). That includes all three meetings last year vs. the Nets, which saw 215, 207 and 220 total pts scored. All but one resulted in a Chicago victory and oddsmakers didn't really adjust the total properly until the last meeting, which ironically ended up being the highest scoring of the bunch (118-102 Bulls win) anyway. We have a similar number attached to the first meeting of 2016-17, but I feel its still a little "too high" for this early in the season. Looking at those three matchups from last season, Brooklyn shot remarkably well from the FT line (50-62) and I don't see them duplicating that here. Nor will the Bulls duplicate their hot 3-pt shooting (34 of 78) from those three games either. Take the Under. Chicago has undergone somewhat of a massive transformation in the offseason. Though they're 2-0 SU, I do not like the makeup of this team at all w/ Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler. I do not see this team matching its 52% shooting from the last game, a 118-101 rout of Indiana. So far, Wade and Butler have combined for 76 points. Rondo dished out 13 assists vs. the Pacers and Doug McDermott made 9 of 14 shots en route to 23 points. I just don't see those kinds of numbers as sustainable. The team shot only 39.1% from the floor against Boston. Of note is that this is the Bulls' first road game of the season. They are 4-1 Under the L2 seasons when the total is 210+ points. Brooklyn is hoisting a lot more three-pointers this year, but only connecting at a 32.1% clip. This is just the second time in franchise history that they've attempted 30+ three-pointers in three consecutive games. They were 11 of 35 from behind the arc in Saturday's 110-108 loss to Milwaukee. That game was decided at the buzzer on a John Henson tip in. The Nets' one home game thus far saw them play some pretty good defense as they held Indiana to only 94 points on 37.8% shooting, which included 7 of 24 from three-point range. Look for a lower scoring game than expected here. 8* Under Bulls/Nets |
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10-25-16 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 204.5 | Top | 88-117 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
8* Over Knicks/Cavaliers (7:35 ET): Lost in all the hoopla surrounding tonight's much anticipated World Series Game 1 is that Cleveland will also be celebrating its first professional sports championship in over half a century, the Cavaliers' NBA Finals stunner last June over the Warriors. The Cavs treated me quite kindly during that run; I had them in Game 7 (and in my analysis called for the outright win). Here on Opening Night, they'll be facing a far less formidable opponent. All the key pieces are back for the NBA Champs, most importantly LeBron James. Kevin Love should be more comfortable in his third year with the team and unlike last season, Kyrie Irving will be suiting up on Opening Night. There is no reason to believe this team shouldn't at least repeat as Eastern Conference Champions. I've seen several outlets report that the Knicks have received more individual wagers to win the NBA Title than any other team. That is insane. Yes, their odds offer more value than the Cavaliers, but there is a reason for that. I'm sorry; but I think Phil Jackson has done an atrocious job here as the GM. Why is this team still attempting to run the antiquated triangle offense? They have a new HC in Jeff Hornacek. I think the move to bring in Derrick Rose was totally overrated as he's a below-average contributor at this point of his career. The offense, triangle or not, will still run through Carmelo Anthony. Kristaps Porzingis and Joakim Noah are nice complimentary players. This isn't the first time Cleveland has opened a season against New York in LeBron's second act here. James' first game back w/ the team (in 2014) was against the Knicks and the Cavs promptly lost that game, 95-90 as 12.5-pt chalk. That result has started a trend which has seen all seven matchups played between these teams the L2 years stay Under the total. But this Cleveland team has its full compliment of players and is gelled. New York will be the group working to fit all the new pieces together. While that will take time to produce positive results, I do concede there are simply more offensive options for NY than there have been in some time. Look for this Under streak to end tonight. I'm on the Over. 8* Over Knicks/Cavaliers |
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06-16-16 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 207.5 | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -102 | 56 h 33 m | Show |
10* Under Cavs/Warriors (9:05 ET): Your results for the Over/Under from Game 5 will vary, but those who bet the Over late would have come up just short (by one-half point!), which seems inexplicable when you consider the game was tied 61-61 at halftime and featured not one, but two 40+ point performances from Cleveland (Kyrie Irving and LeBron James). Klay Thompson had 26 points at halftime for the Warriors. But don't tell that to anyone that got caught with 209.5. Needless to say, I don't think we'll be seeing so many great individual performances here in Game 6, nor are we likely to see half with so much scoring like the first brought in Game 5. Thus, I'm on the Under here. The most points scored in any game so far in the Finals has been 210 (Gm 3 here in Cleveland). The losing side in every game has been held to 97 pts or less. Needless to say, with the stakes now so high, I believe we'll see a greater focus on the defensive end. As the two teams become more familiar with one another, its only natural to expect the defense to get tighter. Golden State has actually shot just 40.7% and 36.4% respectively the last two games. They were just 42.1% in Game 3. So, Cleveland's defense definitely seems to be improving. With Golden State, they'll have Draymond Green back and that's huge. He's held James and Irving to a combined 36% from the floor when guarding either in this series. With Green suspended, James and Irving went nuts in Game 5, combining to shoot a preposterous 33 of 54 from the floor. Again, I just can't see two individual performances such as those being duplicated. By the way, the rest of the Cavs team combined to score just 31 points, fewer than either James (41) or Irving (41)! I've said all year how I feel the Warriors are underrated defensively as the actually finished fourth in efficiency during the regular season. Ten of the past 15 meetings between these two have stayed Under and I would not be surprised at all to see this end up being the lowest scoring game of the series. 10* Under Cavs/Warriors |
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05-25-16 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 199 | Top | 78-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
10* Under Raptors/Cavaliers (8:35 ET): I said it before Game 3, but far too many people were quick to write Toronto off in this series after they lost both games in Cleveland. Sure enough, they've responded by producing B2B outright wins at home (I was on them both times). Now, despite a seemingly generous number from the oddsmakers here, I can't quite "pull the trigger" a third straight time as the series now shifts back to Cleveland for Game 5. But I am confident that we'll see a low scoring game here, thus Under is the call, as the Cavaliers offensive regression should continue and we saw how poorly the Raptors shot the ball in the first two games. |
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05-19-16 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 198 | Top | 89-108 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
10* Over Raptors/Cavs (8:35 ET): The Cavs have set a historic pace on offense this postseason by averaging a whopping 1.17 points per possession and they've already made more three-pointers in nine games than any team before this season had in 12 games. In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, they rolled to 115 points as Toronto did not show any ability to stop them. Even worse from the Raptors perspective is that Cleveland "only" went 7 of 20 from three-point range in the series opener, instead connecting on a shocking 63% of their two-point attempts. Defensively, Toronto was clearly consumed with guarding the three-point line (which they typically aren't very good at doing anyway) and it cost them. Now they are faced with a situation where they don't know what to do in Game 2. I know what to do here though and it's take the Over!
Something else to consider from Game 1 is that Cleveland scored 95 points in three quarters, so their final point total (high as it may be) actually undersells how dominant they were. Again, I don't really see Toronto finding a way to stop them. If they again focus on defending the three-point line, the Cavs have shown they can exploit them inside. If the Raptors pack it in, the Cavs will likely go "bombs away" and burn them that way. Cleveland is 9-3 Over this season if they allowed 85 pts or less the last game. 10* Over Raptors/Cavaliers |
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05-18-16 | Thunder v. Warriors OVER 221.5 | Top | 91-118 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
10* Over Thunder/Warriors (9:05 ET): A funny thing happened late in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors completely collapsed down the stretch. The NBA's most efficient offense managed only 14 points in the fourth quarter as they went cold from the field. That was the fewest points for them in any quarter this postseason and their 42 second half points were their fewest in any half. With Oklahoma City, keep in mind that they won despite Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook shooting a combined 17 of 51 from the floor! Thus, I think it's more than reasonable to expect more points to be scored tonight in Game 2. Take the Over. Golden State had 60 points by halftime, so it's not like the Thunder were dominant defensively. It was simply a case of the Warriors missing shots that we usually see them make. Klay Thompson made only three three-pointers, the first time in seven games he didn't make at least five. Steph Curry scored 26 points, but was only 9 of 22 from the floor. This is a team that averages 115.7 PPG at home and Game 1 marked their second lowest scoring game of the postseason. The lowest was their one loss to the Rockets in Round 1, a game they played w/o Curry. They responded the next game by scoring 121 points. That's par for the course with this team as they are averaging a phenomenal 121.3 PPG off a SU loss this season. Oklahoma City was #2 in offensive efficiency during the regular season, trailing only Golden State. They average 109.7 PPG and that number actually goes up slightly when they're on the road (110.4). While just one meeting between these two teams has gone Over, and that was a byproduct of overtime, the O/U line has also now decreased dramatically from what we saw in the regular season (232+ every time) and is even several points lower than what we saw in Game 1. So there's a ton of value here. Both teams left a lot of points at the charity stripe, missing a combined 16 free throws on a total of 49 attempts. That's highly irregular as both teams shoot better than 76% from the FT line for the season. Expect more points to be scored tonight. 10* Over Thunder/Warriors |
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05-15-16 | Heat v. Raptors OVER 189.5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
10* Over Heat/Raptors (3:35 ET): Points have been pretty hard to come by in this best of seven series. Just like the series itself, the Over-Under is tied at three games apiece, but we've yet to see more than 198 total pts scored in any one game (remember that three of the games have gone to OT) and Toronto has yet to break 100 pts on its own. But that being said, we have seen a minor uptick in scoring the L2 games (both went Over) thanks to the Raptors' starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan finally both coming around. With this game taking place at home, we can expect Toronto to score more (103.6 PPG) and they certainly should improve upon their overall 41.5 percent shooting from Game 6 (4 of 16 from three-point range). Take the Over. This represents a pretty low number on the spectrum for totals in Raptors home games this year. The Over is a perfect 3-0 the only three times the # has been between 185 to 189.5 points and that includes Game 5 where it was 189. The key for Toronto in the last two games has been Lowry and DeRozan both coming alive as they combined for 59 points in the Game 5 victory and then 59 more in Game 6, albeit on a far less efficient shooting night. But as mentioned above, Toronto is a better offensive team here at home where the Over is now 26-21-1 for the year. Also, the Raptors are 23-8 Over when coming off a double-digit loss the last three seasons. Theoretically, it should be easier for both teams to score inside as the starting centers are both out due to injury. Hassan Whiteside was a really strong defensive presence for the Heat and has been missed the last couple games. While the Heat have been one of the top Under teams for most of the year, their scoring average definitely increased as soon as Joe Johnson came over and they are coming off a series high 103 points in Game 6. Remember that Toronto often struggles to defend the three-point line. Look for this deciding game to be feature more scoring than what the linesmakers expect. 10* Over Heat/Raptors |
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05-12-16 | Spurs v. Thunder OVER 195.5 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
10* Over Spurs/Thunder (8:35 ET): It's a situation that few thought would be possible as San Antonio might not even make the Western Conference Finals. They face an elimination game tonight, on the road, and history is not kind them as under HC Greg Popovich they are just 2-10 straight up on the road in must-win playoff games. So that has me a little trepidacious taking them as a short favorite, but at the same time it would be a mistake to count this team out. Therefore, we turn to the total. I've been right side of the Over/Under three times already in this series and here I'm calling for the highest scoring game since the opener as San Antonio should bounce back from a rather dreadful 39.8% shooting performance in Game 5. Take the Over. Defensively, we know what the Spurs are all about. They were #1 in efficiency - by a wide margin - in the regular season. In the playoffs, they are giving up an average of just 90.7 points per game. But that number is somewhat skewed due to facing a severely undermanned Memphis team in Round 1. The Thunder have beaten that same average in every game in this series and were of course #2 in the league in offensive efficiency during the regular season (obviously trailing Golden State). The Thunder average 109.7 PPG for the year and while they've broken 100 just one time in the series, that time was the last home game. The Spurs allow roughly five more points per game on the road than they do at home. However, as alluded to above, the driving force behind this Over play is the fact that I'm projecting San Antonio to shoot significantly better here than they did in Game 5. Something to note is that they were actually 8 of 18 from three-point range Tuesday, which means they were only 27 of 70 (38.5%) on two-point attempts, a shockingly poor performance. This is a team that shoots above 48 percent for the year. They haven't been at or above that number since the blistering Game 1 performance when they shot better than 60% en route to 124 points and a blowout victory. That might seem like "forever ago" now, but this team averages more than 103 PPG. OKC is 6-1 Over as a home dog of three points or less. 10* Over Spurs/Thunder |
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05-10-16 | Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 199.5 | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
8* Under Thunder/Spurs (8:05 ET): As you already know, I've had a great deal of success in this series. Oklahoma City is coming off a 111-97 win in Game 4, which was easily their best showing of the four games so far. But if this season has taught us anything it's to expect a bounce back from San Antonio here as save for a relatively meaningless end of the season losing streak, they have been deadly off a SU loss. They are 14-2 in this situation (11-5 ATS), winning by an average of 14.5 points per game. However, I'm actually a little leery of laying all these points and instead am going to play the total. Coming off the first game all series where BOTH sides shot relatively well, I can't help but think we'll be seeing fewer points scored in Game 5. Therefore, I'm on the Under. The key to San Antonio's ability to bounce back from a loss this season seems to be them refocusing on the defensive end. They've allowed an average of only 90.3 PPG in this situation and that includes a 100-96 win in Game 3 where I was on the Under as well (play cashed by a few points). What makes me even more confident in taking the Under here (compared to Gm 3) is that the Spurs are at home where they give up only 90.4 PPG for the year. This was of course the #1 team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency during the regular season and they've posted a near-identical rating so far in the playoffs. By the way, the Under is 26-12-2 this season when the Spurs failed to cover the spread in their previous game. Oklahoma City got 41 points from Kevin Durant in Game 4 and shot better than 50 percent as a team. I reckon that we'll see both of those number go down tonight. The Thunder scored 66 points in the second half of Game 4 (shot 57 percent), which is a lot against any team, but especially vs. the Spurs. The good news is that San Antonio simply has not allowed 100+ pts in B2B games very often. In fact, that's happened only five times all year! When talking about the Spurs on offense, they seem to have stagnated as their number of assists continues to go down with each game in the series and relative to the other teams left in the playoff field, the three-pointer is not as big a weapon. The Thunder have allowed less than 100 PPG in the playoffs (98.6 PPG) and are 9-5 Under as an underdog this season. I find it interesting that the O/U line came down half a point despite the overwhelming number of bets being on the Over (about 80%). So, that's a sign "sharp money" is on the Under here and I am too. 8* Under Thunder/Spurs |
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05-07-16 | Raptors v. Heat UNDER 187.5 | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
10* Under Raptors/Heat (5:05 ET): Even with the benefit of overtime, Game 2 of this series still stayed Under the total. Game 1 needed overtime to just barely go Over the total. At the end of regulation, there has been 180 and 172 total points scored respectively. Thus, the number for Game 3 still looks far too high, particularly considering the way Toronto’s top players continue to shoot the ball. Furthermore, the Under has clearly been the way to go with both teams lately as Toronto is 8-2 Under its last 10 games and Miami is 6-1 Under its last seven games. Take the Under here. In the playoffs, the Raptors are averaging only 93.1 PPG. They’ve been right on that average the last five games. By now, I’m sure you know what ills them. Their top two scorers during the regular season – Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan – have been downright dreadful. That duo has combined to shoot a woeful 32.5% from the field. Lowry in particular has been awful. He’s shooting just 37.5% in the paint and is 9 for 57 from three-point range. As a team, Toronto’s FG% is only 40.3 and that includes 27.3 from three-point range. They are dead last among all remaining playoff teams in offensive efficiency. Miami was one of the better defensive teams in the league during the regular season (7th). That’s the driving force behind the fact that the Under is 53-37 in all of their games this season. So far, they are giving up just 91.6 PPG in the playoffs and over the last five games, they are below that number. Not to be outdone, Toronto is allowing only 94.4 PPG in the playoffs. The Under is 5-1 for them when they are a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The overwhelming majority of tickets written on the total of this game (as of Friday night) are on the Over, yet the number has actually come down a point. That’s something certainly to consider. 10* Under Raptors/Heat |
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05-06-16 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 200.5 | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
10* Under Spurs/Thunder (9:35 ET): Man, it seems like forever ago that these teams last played, doesn't it? In case you forgot, the Thunder took Game 2 outright, 98-97 as 7.5-pt underdogs, handing the Spurs just their second home loss of the season (Warriors were the only other team to do it). The game stayed Under as well, albeit just barely. Then again, we were "due" for a low-scoring game after the Spurs shot better than 60% in Game 1 and scored 124 points. After the long layoff between games, I envision another low-scoring affair taking place tonight, so I'm on the Under. San Antonio was of course the #1 defensive team in the league during the regular season. Off a loss, they are giving up an average of just 90.4 PPG. They've maintained a strong defensive rating in the playoffs (#2 in efficiency), allowing just 92.9 points per 100 possessions and 85.7 points per game. Granted, defending Oklahoma City is a lot tougher than defending what was a injury-riddled Memphis squad, but still, the Thunder failed to break 100 points in either of the first two games. OKC is just 11 for 42 from three-point range in the series, which won't cut it, and San Antonio allows just 32.9% shooting from three-point range for the season. Just because they are back home does not necessarily mean the Thunder will score more as remember they were held to only 84 points by Dallas in one of the three home games in Round 1. The Under is a perfect 3-0 this season for them, at home, when the total is 200 to 204.5. The Under is also 24-17 in all road games for San Antonio this year. 10* Under Spurs/Thunder |
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05-03-16 | Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 213.5 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under Blazers/Warriors (10:35 ET): Five times these teams have played this season. All five games have gone Over the total. In fact, going back two full seasons, 10 of the last 12 Blazers-Warriors matchups have gone Over, including seven in a row. So history certainly won't be on our side Tuesday night when the Under is the play for Game 2. But I feel that the "law of averages" is with us. Golden State is of course without its best player and Portland simply isn't a very good road team. Thus, I feel it is highly unlikely that we'll be seeing as many points here as we did in Game 1. Take the Under. With Curry sidelined at least until Saturday (Game 3), other players on the Warriors are going to have to step up and in Game 1 that clearly was Klay Thompson, who finished with 37 points on 14 of 28 shooting, which includes 7 of 14 from three-point range. I do not believe he will be able to duplicate that kind of performance tonight. Note that the last time Thompson was coming off a 30+ pt performance, he followed it up w/ only 17 points and missed all seven three-point attempts he took. (That was Game 3 vs. Houston). As a team, GSW scored 37 points in the first quarter of Game 1, had 65 pts by halftime and never really was in danger. But without Curry's 30.1 points per game, I just don't see them being that prolific again on the offensive end. Portland shot just 40.2 percent from the floor in Game 1, yet still ended up scoring 106 points. That speaks to the pace Golden State plays at, but the game also became a little more "wide-open" due to the large lead that the Warriors enjoyed throughout. Assuming this one is a little closer, the number of possessions should decrease. The Blazers simply aren't a good road team (17-28 straight up) and their scoring average drops roughly six points per game on the road compared to at home. The Under is 6-3 for both of these teams over their last nine games, respectively. 10* Under Blazers/Warriors |
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Bryan Power NBA Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-29-16 | Thunder v. Grizzlies UNDER 198.5 | Top | 80-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
12-29-16 | Heat v. Hornets OVER 200.5 | Top | 82-91 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
12-25-16 | Clippers v. Lakers OVER 213.5 | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
12-23-16 | Warriors v. Pistons OVER 212.5 | Top | 119-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
12-22-16 | Warriors v. Nets OVER 231 | Top | 117-101 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
12-20-16 | Nuggets v. Clippers OVER 216.5 | 102-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
12-17-16 | Rockets v. Wolves UNDER 221 | Top | 111-109 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
12-16-16 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 187 | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
12-15-16 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 221 | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
12-13-16 | Grizzlies v. Cavs UNDER 200.5 | 86-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
12-12-16 | Nets v. Rockets UNDER 228 | Top | 118-122 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
12-10-16 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 209.5 | Top | 89-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
12-08-16 | Nuggets v. Wizards UNDER 219 | Top | 85-92 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
12-07-16 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 217 | Top | 126-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
12-06-16 | Knicks v. Heat OVER 203.5 | Top | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
12-06-16 | Magic v. Wizards OVER 199 | Top | 124-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
12-05-16 | Celtics v. Rockets UNDER 218.5 | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
12-04-16 | Magic v. Pistons OVER 193.5 | Top | 98-92 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
12-03-16 | Suns v. Warriors OVER 228.5 | Top | 109-138 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
11-30-16 | Hawks v. Suns OVER 209 | Top | 107-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
11-29-16 | Clippers v. Nets UNDER 217.5 | Top | 122-127 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
11-28-16 | Hawks v. Warriors OVER 219 | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
11-27-16 | Rockets v. Blazers UNDER 223 | Top | 130-114 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
11-25-16 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 203.5 | Top | 105-89 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
11-21-16 | Warriors v. Pacers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 120-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
11-18-16 | Clippers v. Kings UNDER 205.5 | Top | 121-115 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
11-16-16 | Spurs v. Kings OVER 195 | Top | 110-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
11-14-16 | Nets v. Clippers OVER 214.5 | Top | 95-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
11-11-16 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 209.5 | Top | 120-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
11-09-16 | Bulls v. Hawks OVER 204.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
11-09-16 | Rockets v. Spurs UNDER 211 | Top | 101-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
11-01-16 | Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 199.5 | Top | 80-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
10-31-16 | Bulls v. Nets UNDER 212 | Top | 118-88 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
10-25-16 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 204.5 | Top | 88-117 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
06-16-16 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 207.5 | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -102 | 56 h 33 m | Show |
05-25-16 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 199 | Top | 78-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
05-19-16 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 198 | Top | 89-108 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
05-18-16 | Thunder v. Warriors OVER 221.5 | Top | 91-118 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
05-15-16 | Heat v. Raptors OVER 189.5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
05-12-16 | Spurs v. Thunder OVER 195.5 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
05-10-16 | Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 199.5 | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
05-07-16 | Raptors v. Heat UNDER 187.5 | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
05-06-16 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 200.5 | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
05-03-16 | Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 213.5 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show |