Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-07-20 | Kansas v. Oklahoma UNDER 63.5 | Top | 9-62 | Loss | -109 | 115 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Kansas/Oklahoma (3:30 ET): During this perfect 11-0 NCAAF totals run that I am on, it’s been pretty surprising just how many Unders have been cashed. What I’ve been doing is simply going Under in games where one or both teams have been on long Over streaks. We’ve got one here in Kansas, who has seen all of its games - but one - go Over this season. That one exception, a 47-14 loss to Baylor, was a push. This matchup with Oklahoma completely fits the bill of what I’ve been doing during the streak. I’m taking the Under. Now I realize there is concern that Oklahoma has the capability to send this one Over themselves. Last week, the Sooners hung 62 on Texas Tech. But their previous high (in regulation) for a game was 48 against a FCS school, Missouri State, and that was also a shutout. If OU is up as big as expected here (they are a 38-pt favorite!), then it’s highly likely they take their “foot off the gas” in the second half. Last week they scored 48 in the first half and then only 14 in the second. It’s unlikely they are going to score 48 in a half two weeks in a row. Kansas won’t score much at all here. The 22 points they put up last week was a season-high in Big 12 play. The previous four games were all 17 pts or less and twice they failed to reach 200 total yards. It should be noted that four of their six games have finished with 61 total points or less. Last week was right at 60 before Iowa State curiously scored two late TDs. This is the highest O/U line of the year for any Kansas game. It will stay Under the number. 10* Under Kansas/Oklahoma |
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11-07-20 | Nebraska +4 v. Northwestern | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
9* Nebraska (12:00 ET): So the Cornhuskers got an unexpected bye last week when their scheduled opponent (Wisconsin) got hit with a COVID 19 outbreak. That was dually beneficial, not just for the bye, but also they avoided what would have been a likely loss in Lincoln. The ‘Huskers have already lost once this year, not unexpectedly, as they went up against Ohio State in the season opener and that went about as poorly as you’d expect. But this week’s opponent isn’t Ohio State or Wisconsin. Take the points. Northwestern is 2-0, but needed to come back from an early 17-0 deficit to win last Saturday in Iowa. The Wildcats were far more impressive the previous week, beating Maryland 43-3, which now looks even more impressive given how the Terps handled Minnesota. But something that sticks out to me about this Wildcats’ team is that they have benefited from SEVEN turnovers (by the opponents) in two games! They can’t count on receiving that many giveaways every week. It should also be pointed out that the N’western offense had just 273 total yards last week and had a horrible 2.4 yards per rush attempt. Even though it’s a unique and shortened season, Nebraska needs to show SOMETHING in its third year under HC Scott Frost. The team went just 4-8 and 5-7 his first two years here. They lost three games as a favorite in 2019. I like the chances of covering here as four of the last five meetings w/ Northwestern have been one score games, three of which have been by a field goal or less. Two went to overtime. Frost used two QBs against Ohio State, which will make his team difficult to prepare for. Northwestern is 1-7-1 ATS its last 9 games as a home favorite. 9* Nebraska |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers +7.5 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (8:20 ET): So there’s been plenty of mid-week drama in this one, but I’m sticking with the 49ers. Yes, they are going to be without both QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle. But they have been playing without key performers all season and are still a very respectable 4-4 SU this season with a +35 point differential. As I stated earlier in the year, the “downgrade” from Garoppolo to backup Nick Mullens isn’t that severe. With Mullens at helm, the 49ers have won a game 36-9. Let’s also not forget that Green Bay is missing some key pieces for this one, namely at running back. I’ll be taking the points. As I’ve been quite clear about for a while now, I see the Packers regressing this year. They went 13-3 SU in the 2019 regular season, but were very lucky to do so. Now after last week’s 28-22 upset loss to the Vikings, they’ve lost twice in the past three weeks. I faded them against Tampa Bay in what was my top NFL pick for October! Last week against Minnesota, the defense was run over by Vikings RB Dalvin Cook. Speaking of running the ball, the Packers are really going to struggle to do so here, especially if Aaron Jones (questionable) doesn’t make it onto the field. That would make it THREE RB’s down for the Pack. Now San Francisco is going to be without a ton. In fact, they won’t have a single player responsible for any of the total yardage in LY’s two wins over Green Bay. But still, even against Aaron Rodgers, they shouldn’t be getting this many points at home. The offense should be able to move the ball against a GB defense that allowed 173 rush yards last week. The Packers are 0-6 ATS the L6 years in Week 9. The 49ers are 7-2 ATS L9 as an underdog. 8* San Francisco |
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11-05-20 | Utah State +17.5 v. Nevada | Top | 9-34 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
10* Utah State (7:00 ET): Needless to say, it’s been a couple of VERY different starts to the season for these two Mountain West teams. Utah State is 0-2 SU/ATS. They’ve been outscored 80-20 and the lone TD last week came on a circus catch near the end of the half. But, as always, some context needs to be provided. So far, the Aggies have faced Boise State and San Diego State, two of the standard bearers in this conference. I think we’re getting a REAL generous number here as they are set to visit Reno. Nevada is 2-0, both straight up and against the spread. But the Wolf Pack have played Wyoming and UNLV. Wyoming lost its starting QB early, yet was still able to force OT against the Wolf Pack. I tried taking a flier on UNLV hosting the Wolf Pack last Saturday night. While that ended up NOT working out (Nevada won 37-19 as a 2 TD favorite), note that was a one-score game entering the 4th quarter. Something I find fascinating for this matchup is that last year Utah State was a 21-point favorite in Logan … and covered the spread. Granted that was w/ Jordan Love at QB, but I don’t think the odds should be shifting more than FIVE touchdowns from last season’s meeting. Utah State HC Gary Andersen really ripped his team’s 2H effort vs. San Diego State, thus we should be getting a pretty motivated performance from the dog on Thursday night. It’s a national TV game (FS1) where the Aggies don’t want to be embarrassed. Eight of the last 12 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 6 pts or less. USU has covered just one of the last five as a home favorite. 10* Utah State |
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11-04-20 | Ohio v. Central Michigan | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 25 m | Show |
8* Ohio (7:00 ET): Ohio HC Frank Solich has never won a MAC Title despite being the conference’s all-time wins leader. For the second consecutive season, the Bobcats come in as the betting favorite to win the conference. They open in Mt Pleasant against a Central Michigan team that has given them fits in the past. This non-division rivalry has seen CMU capture four in a row, three of those wins coming as underdogs. The Chippewas had an incredible bounce back in 2019, going from 1-11 SU (in ‘18) to 8-6 and an appearance in the MAC Championship. I believe they’re likely to regress in 2020 and OU gets its revenge. The big storyline (for both teams) coming into this season opener will be at the QB position. Both are breaking in new starters at the most important position. Ohio can’t possibly replace the production of Nathan Rourke, who left as the school’s all-time leading passer and was a running threat as well. But whoever ends up being the new starter will have a lot of talent at RB and WR. Three starters also return along the offensive line. For the record, we will probably see both Kurtis Rourke (Nathan’s brother) and Armani Rogers (UNLV transfer) under center for the Bobcats on Wednesday. Central Michigan will almost certainly be starting freshman Daniel Richardson, although Sam Houston State transfer Ty Brock could get some snaps as well. The issue here is that senior David Moore is under suspension for PED use. On the defensive side of the ball, the Chips lost a pair of corners before fall camp. They have less overall production returning than Ohio and I believe the “plexiglass principle” is in play this year for CMU. Solich will badly want to beat this team, especially after starting LY 1-3. The Bobcats’ receivers will exploit the depleted CMU secondary and move the team to 12-5 SU L17 MAC games. 8* Ohio |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants UNDER 45 | Top | 25-23 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 40 m | Show |
10* Under Bucs/Giants (8:15 ET): The point spread for this game has been bet up considerably. While it’s hard to fathom Tampa Bay losing outright, laying double digits (especially on the road) is something I would almost never do in this league. So we turn to the total. The Buccaneers shouldn’t have much trouble containing the Giants’ meager offense Monday night. This Bucs’ defense is allowing just 20.3 PPG and is one of only three defenses in the league (Colts, Steelers) to be allowing LESS than 300 total yards per game. They are #1 against the run. Heading into Sunday, Tampa Bay had the best point differential in the sport. They’ve outscored their opponents by 80 points. The defense has allowed more than 20 points in just two games this season. They allowed 34 in a Week 1 loss to the Saints and then 31 in a Week 4 win over the Chargers. In both games, QB Tom Brady was guilty of throwing a “pick six,” so the defensive numbers (in terms of points allowed) are even better than they already look. The Giants offense, in case you didn’t know, is one of the very worst in the league. They are averaging just 17.4 PPG and the only time they’ve topped 21 was against the Cowboys, who have arguably the worst defense in the league. So I’m pretty confident that the Giants are not scoring many points here. Not only have they scored 21 pts or less in six of seven games, they’ve been held under 17 four times. Those four times were against the best four defenses they’ve faced and a case could be made that TB is the BEST defense they will face all season! So it all comes down to the Giants defense hopefully containing Brady and company. The Bucs’ offense will be without Chris Godwin (one of their starting receivers) so that’s a plus on that front. They did put up 45 themselves last week, but that was on the heels of two games where they averaged a modest 330 YPG. Only one Giants game all season has seen more than 45 total pts scored. 10* Under Bucs/Giants |
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11-01-20 | Cowboys +10 v. Eagles | Top | 9-23 | Loss | -120 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:20 ET): Hold your nose and grab the points here as we’re taking the Cowboys plus the points Sunday night. To be clear, I have not lost my mind. Rather, I’m very cognizant of the fact the look ahead line for this game was just +2.5. It was then adjusted after another ugly Dallas loss last week (to +7.5) and has now risen past double digits with the announcement that 3rd string QB Ben DiNucci will be starting this week. I don’t think a 2-4-1 Eagles team - that has plenty of its own problems - should be laying this many points to anybody right now. Consider that the Eagles were a dog of 7 pts or more three straight games before LW’s win over the Giants. That win was by just a single point and required a 4Q comeback at home. That right there should give the Cowboys hope. Philly’s two wins this year have been by a total of six points and they have a YTD point differential of -33. The Dallas defense has forced a league-low three turnovers thus far, but Eagles QB Carson Wentz is tied for a league-high 10 interceptions and has turned it over 12 times total. With the Jets covering last week (I had ‘em!), the Cowboys are the lone remaining winless team ATS. They are 0-7 ATS, which is the worst start to a season at the betting window since the ‘03 Raiders. They’re due for a cover here and it should come at a time when everyone is doubting them. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS as favorites this season and have won just one of those four games straight up. They are just 3-12 ATS L15 as a home favorite. Take the points. 8* Dallas |
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11-01-20 | 49ers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-37 | Loss | -100 | 101 h 28 m | Show |
9* San Francisco (4:25 ET): As revealed in last week’s *10* ULTIMATE POWER release on Arizona, I am not as high on Seattle as the marketplace seems to be. This despite the team’s 5-1 SU record (were 5-0 going into last week). Statistically, they have the worst defense in the league as they allow the most yards per game (479.2) & it’s really not even close. Jacksonville allows the 2nd most YPG in the league and they are allowing almost 55 YPG less than Seattle! The Seahawks are particularly vulnerable against the pass as we saw last Sunday night when they allowed Kyler Murray to throw for 360 yards. Consider this: the Seattle defense has allowed the most passing yards EVER through the first six games of the season. They’ve allowed more total yards than all but three teams and that’s despite the fact they’ve already had their bye and a majority of teams have not! San Francisco has no such defensive issues. Despite an outlier game against Miami (where they lost 43-17), the 49ers are giving up an average of just 19.4 PPG this year. They are #5 in both scoring and total defense. I took them two weeks ago when they upset the Rams at home, 24-16, as a 3-point underdog on SNF. They are getting healthier while Seattle could be w/o its top three running backs here. After Jim Harbaugh made his exodus from SF, this became a pretty one-sided divisional rivalry (in Seattle’s favor). But the 49ers have won two of the last three meetings, including the one here in Seattle LY. But what’s really impressive is the fact the 49ers have covered seven straight times as an underdog, all but one of those times coming on the road where they are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS this season. Remember that virtually all of Seattle’s games end up being close and they’ve tended to be very lucky in terms of results. That luck ran out last week in the desert and I’m not concerned that this number moved several points from the lookahead as I have SF rated as the better team! 9* San Francisco |
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11-01-20 | Rams v. Dolphins +4 | Top | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 122 h 57 m | Show |
10* Miami (1:00 ET): There is a tremendous situational edge in this matchup for the Dolphins. They are coming out of a bye while the visiting Rams are on a short week. While you may recall last week’s play on Arizona found them on a short week facing a Seattle team off its bye, note the differences. Arizona was at home and GETTING points. The Rams are on the road and laying points. It’s an early start time too. Yes, the Rams do have a (recent) history of performing better than expected in these 1:00 ET starts, I don’t see that continuing this week. Both Rams losses this season have been on the road and one (at Buffalo) was an early start. Of course, the BIG story for this game is that Tua Tagovailoa will be making his first career start for Miami. While it’s a bit of a gamble by HC Brian Flores, the current “lay of the land” in the AFC East dictates a “go for it” mentality. The Jets are terrible, the Patriots are declining and I don’t think the Bills are as good as everyone thinks. Quietly, the Dolphins have outscored their opponents by 47 points (despite being 3-3). All three wins have been by at least 18 points. Prior to the bye, they destroyed a San Francisco team (43-17!) that the Rams lost to and then shut out the Jets 24-0. The Fins are a perfect 5-0 ATS the L5 years off their bye! The Rams are 5-2 SU, but four of those wins have come at the expense of the moribund NFC East. The only non-NFC East win was Monday against offensively inept Chicago. This is already their FOURTH trip into the Eastern Time Zone this season. Remember that they were down huge in Buffalo before a furious 2H rally fell short. Tua has had two weeks to prepare for his 1st start and there’s a reason Miami made him their top draft choice. He clearly has more upside than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Take the points in what is my biggest NFL play of the season! 10* Miami |
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10-31-20 | Nevada v. UNLV +14 | Top | 37-19 | Loss | -107 | 38 h 35 m | Show |
8* UNLV (10:30 ET): The Rebels certainly didn’t show much in their first game under new HC Marcus Arroyo. They were soundly beaten, 34-6 by San Diego State, gaining just 186 total yards in the process. But that was one of the Mountain West’s top teams they were up against there and it was on the road. Here, they’re at home and playing their rival (battle for the “Fremont Cannon!”), who they’ve upset each of the last two seasons. This is actually the 1st game at the brand new Allegiant Stadium that will have fans. The line has moved too much. Take the points. Nevada’s season started with a 37-34 overtime win against Wyoming. The Wolfpack had a double digit early, but let the Cowboys back in it despite the fact they lost their starting QB. Winning close is nothing new for Nevada as they are now 9-3 SU the L2 seasons in games decided by seven points or less. That makes the fans in Reno happy, but it also means the Wolf Pack aren’t exactly an ideal candidate to be laying this many points. Two of those three close losses that they’ve suffered came at the hands of UNLV, including 34-29 as a 2 TD favorite here in Vegas two years ago. Last season, the Rebels pulled off a 33-30 upset in Reno, a game that went to overtime and was marred by a post-game brawl. Nevada is traditionally not a great road team as LY they faced just one team that was in a bowl away from home. They are 2-5 ATS L7 as a road favorite. While UNLV was gashed on the ground by San Diego State last week, Nevada had only 76 yds rushing in its win over Wyoming (less than 3.0 yds per carry). The Rebels are 12-3-1 ATS following an ATS loss. 8* UNLV |
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10-31-20 | Western Kentucky +29.5 v. BYU | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
8* Western Kentucky (10:15 ET): I don’t think any team has underperformed its expectations this College Football season more so than Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are 0-6 ATS, easily the worst such mark in the country. Last week, they barely managed to beat an FCS squad, Chattanooga. While this might not exactly be a “rousing” endorsement of a side I’m going to take on Saturday against a BYU team that has clearly OVERPERFORMED its own expectations, this is a lot of points & I don’t think WKU is this bad. BYU is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. This will already be the third time this season that the Cougars have been asked to lay 28 or more points at the betting window. Their lone ATS loss came in a really lethargic effort vs. UTSA three weeks ago when they only won 27-20 as 34-point chalk. Last week did see them defeat Texas State 52-14 as a 29-point favorite. But as rough as things have been for Western Kentucky so far, they are still a better team than those two aforementioned BYU opponents. I have the Hilltoppers rated several points higher than Texas State, for example. Three of Western Kentucky’s six games, including both of their SU wins, have been decided by six points or less. They also stayed within 14 of Louisville in the season opener. I can’t imagine a team going winless ATS for an entire season, so you know that elusive first cover is coming for the team from Bowling Green. They have covered 10 of the last 14 times they’ve been a road underdog of more than three touchdowns. BYU is in a look ahead to a showdown with Boise State next week, which will be their toughest regular season game. 8* Western Kentucky |
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10-31-20 | Charlotte +10 v. Duke | Top | 19-53 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 57 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:00 ET): While there is no denying that Duke’s all-ACC schedule has been more difficult than what Charlotte has faced thus far, I still don’t think the Blue Devils should be laying more than a touchdown in this spot - even after a bye. Under HC David Cutcliffe, Duke has been terrible as a favorite, going just 1-7 ATS when -3.5 to -10 and that includes SIX outright losses! They are a 1-5 (SU) team that turns the ball over way too much for my tastes (22 times in six games). Trust me when I say you’re going to want to take the points in this one. Charlotte comes in at 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS. Last week was the first non-cover of the season as they only beat UTEP by 10 (were laying 17). The 49ers have been dogs two times previous to this and (obviously) covered both times. Those games were against a pair of conference champs from last season, Appalachian State and Florida Atlantic. I had them against FAU. That was followed by a 49-21 thrashing of North Texas on the road as 3.5-point chalk where they gained over 600 total yards of offense. They didn’t move the ball nearly as well last week vs. UTEP (surprising) but fortunately for the 49ers, Duke has allowed 26+ points in every game so far. Duke’s only win this year was against a Syracuse team that is really bad. They turned it over the same number of times in their last game (3) as Charlotte has all season. The Blue Devils are last in the ACC in turnover margin while Charlotte is 1st in that department among C-USA teams. The 49ers also lead their conference in time of possession. Not only is Duke w/o its star CB Mark Gilbert, starting center Will Taylor just had knee surgery. QB Chase Brice is completing only 55% of his attempts and has 11 interceptions. 10* Charlotte |
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10-31-20 | Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech UNDER 57.5 | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 100 h 36 m | Show |
8* Under Notre Dame/Georgia Tech (3:30 ET): Georgia Tech is two weeks removed from a 73-7 beatdown at the hands of Clemson. I played against them last week, thinking +3.5 was WAY too short of a number on the road vs. Boston College. I couldn’t have been more right. The Yellow Jackets lost 48-27 in Chestnut Hill in what was my top ACC play for October. However, be advised that the number of points GT allowed was a bit misleading. BC had a defensive TD + three scoring drives of less than 40 yards (all TDs). Notre Dame is playing in the ACC this year and off to a 5-0 start (four wins in conference play). They completely crushed Pitt last week with the offense putting up 45 points. But let’s not dismiss what the defense did, holding the Panthers to just three points and 44 yards rushing. The Fighting Irish lead the ACC in both scoring and total defense and are top 10 nationally in both categories. They’ve allowed only one opponent (Florida State) to score more than 13 points this year. Maybe Notre Dame can ask Georgia Tech for some “tips” about facing Clemson because that’s who the Irish will face NEXT week. With such a huge game on deck (two Top 5 teams!), I seriously doubt Brian Kelly will want to show much offensively in a game his team should win easily. Remember it was only two weeks ago that the Irish scored only 12 points in a win over Louisville. So it’s not as if they’re immune to an “off day.” Georgia Tech’s defense has been pretty bad, leading to five straight Overs, but remember the theme of this 3-pack. They’ll benefit from ND being a little disinterested in this one. 8* Under Notre Dame/Ga Tech |
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10-31-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 51-0 | Win | 100 | 96 h 57 m | Show |
8* Under Coastal Carolina/Georgia State (12:00 ET): The theme of this 3-pack of totals will be readily apparent to those who have followed recent/season results. Bottom line is I’m looking to buck the Over trends from certain teams. One such example is Georgia State, who has gone Over in all four games this season. The last time I checked in with this team was two weeks ago and they gave up 59 points in a loss to Arkansas State (They scored 52 in that game). Crazy as it may sound, the Panthers’ defense isn’t as bad as that performance (or some other numbers suggest). Georgia State is actually quite good at stopping the run. They are allowing just 97.0 YPG on the ground and 3.15 yards per carry, both of which are Sun Belt bests. This is particularly handy against a Coastal Carolina offense whose strength is an ability to run and will likely be starting a backup QB for the second straight week. In last week’s 36-34 win over Troy, Georgia State gave up two defensive touchdowns, skewing the scoreboard. Besides the wild Arkansas State game, the Panthers’ defense has not surrendered more than 30 points in regulation all season. Coastal Carolina’s defense was outstanding last week as it held Georgia Southern to 14 points (none in the 2H) and only 218 total yards in a season-best effort. The Chanticleers have held every opponent to 27 points or less and are now 5-0 SU, earning themselves a Top 20 ranking for the 1st time. The defense is #26 in the country in yards allowed per game. With Fred Payton likely to start in place of the injured Grayson McCall for a second straight game, the offense isn’t as dynamic as it was at the start of the season. Even w/ the number coming down, this is still likely to close as the 2nd highest CC O/U line to date. 8* Under Coastal Carolina/Georgia State |
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10-31-20 | Temple v. Tulane UNDER 60.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 96 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under Temple/Tulane (12:00 ET): These teams are a combined 7-1-1 Over, but remember the theme of the 3-pack. Temple has played only three times and every game has been pretty wild w/ a 39-37 come from behind win over USF sandwiched in between losses to Navy (31-29) and Memphis (41-29). Tulane is just 2-4 w/ the L5 games all going Over the total. The fewest number of total points scored in a Green Wave game the L4 weeks has been 71! But they’ve been up against some pretty great offenses and that’s not really the case here. The last three games have seen Tulane face Houston, SMU and Central Florida, three of the top offenses in the American. The Green Wave certainly didn’t get a ton of stops in those games, but the defense has been very good at generating a pass rush (2+ sacks in every game besides Navy, who really doesn’t throw) and Temple really struggled in pass protection LW vs. Memphis. The Green Wave were just blitzed in the 2nd quarter by UCF last week (gave up 27 points) but really weren’t that bad otherwise (crazy as that may sound). They also shut out Navy for a half earlier in the season. The strength of the Tulane offense is running the football, but note Temple is allowing just 3.9 yards per carry. Tulane has scored a total of THREE defensive touchdowns the L3 games, so the offense isn’t as productive as those final scores might lead you to believe. The SMU game went to overtime and the game vs. Houston featured THREE non-offensive touchdowns. Take that “randomness” out of the equation, all of a sudden the games aren’t as high-scoring. Last year’s game was 29-21 (in favor of Temple) despite Tulane running for 200 yards. I expect both defenses to step up here. 8* Under Temple/Tulane |
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10-30-20 | Minnesota v. Maryland +20 | Top | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 56 h 1 m | Show |
8* Maryland (7:30 ET): Maryland played a horrendous season opener, turning it over four times and losing 43-3 at Northwestern. They’ve got to shake that off as they prepare to welcome in a Minnesota team that’s off its own blowout loss. The Golden Gophers were thinking upset last Saturday night as they hosted Michigan, but had no answers defensively in a 49-25 defeat where they gave up 35 first half points and nearly 500 total yards for the game. So there is hope for the Terps Friday night and I’ll take the points. It’s going to be tough for Minnesota to bounce back from last week. They’ll probably still win here mind you, but the team thought it could compete with Michigan and didn’t. A short week is not the remedy to get over a disappointing loss such as that one. Yes, I remember the Gophers did win 11 games LY but they also played a very soft schedule (by Big 10 standards). They clobbered Maryland 52-10 at home, which I’m sure is remembered by the Terrapins. HC PJ Fleck usually does a good job motivating his teams, but I do not believe Minnesota will be the more motivated team Friday night. Going back to last year, Maryland has now lost eight in a row by an average of more than 30 PPG. That’s not good for HC Mike Locksley, whose tenure began with two wins where the offense scored 142 points! Since then, the Terps are 1-10 SU with the only win coming against Rutgers. Even though it’s just his second season here in College Park, Locksley can ill-afford a blowout loss on national television. Despite the success under Fleck, this is more points than Minnesota is accustomed to laying on the road. They were just -16 at home vs. Maryland LY. 8* Maryland |
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10-29-20 | Colorado State -1.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -109 | 37 h 44 m | Show |
10* Colorado State (10:00 ET): Last week saw the Mountain West Conference join the College Football season, although that did not include Colorado State, whose scheduled game vs. New Mexico had to be called off due to COVID-19 concerns. The Rams are expected to be an improved outfit this year under new coach Steve Addazio, who was fired after a solid (if unspectacular) tenure at Boston College. CSU actually outgained its foes in conference play last year despite a 3-5 SU record and should improve their -11 TO margin as well. I look for Addazio to have a successful debut Thursday night. Lay the short number. Fresno State really nosedived last season as they won just 4 games after B2B 10+ win seasons. That resulted in Jeff Tedford stepping down as HC and being replaced by former assistant Kalen DeBoer. The Bulldogs did play last week and I didn’t exactly see a lot of reasons for optimism as they were shredded on the ground by Hawaii in a 34-19 home loss. The Bulldogs gave up 323 yds rushing (6.1 YPC!) and 552 yards total. They also turned the ball over four times in a game where they were 2.5-pt favorites. The line has moved in CSU’s direction for this Thursday night affair and I have to say that I AGREE with the move. The Rams won here last season, 41-31, as a 2-TD underdog and have now covered five of the last seven meetings overall. They have a senior QB in Patrick O’Brien, who should have a good season. His top receiver from a year ago (Warren Jackson) is gone, but expect Dante Wright to step up and fill those shoes. CSU had an excellent pass defense a year ago (ranked 7th nationally). Not only did Fresno State score just 19 pts last week, but both TD drives were 33 yards or less. 10* Colorado State |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (8:15 ET): Chicago is a very fraudulent 5-1 SU right now as they’ve twice come back from 17+ pt deficits to win in the 2nd half. All five wins have been by 7 pts or less. They were badly outgained two weeks ago on Thursday night by Tampa Bay, yet still managed to win 20-19. They averaged only 4.1 yards per play in that game. So far, the Bears have been outgained on both a per game and per play basis this season. In the four games they didn’t rally back from 17+ down, they have failed to score more than 23 points. This is a team I want to fade. Meanwhile, the Rams are 5-1 ATS off their L6 SU losses. They lost to 49ers as a road favorite on SNF last week, a spot where I actually played against them. But they are 4-1 ATS L5 as a home favorite. Unlike the Bears, LA is outgaining teams on a per game and per play basis. Even though Chicago is carried by its defense, the Rams are giving up fewer yards and points per game. Only two teams in the Super Bowl era have pulled off five outright upsets in the first seven weeks of the season, which is what Chicago is vying to do here. The Bears have been outgained in 4 of their 6 games this year. Even though they've won two straight, I don't feel that QB Nick Foles has necessarily been any kind of improvement compared to Mitch Trubisky. 10* LA Rams |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 129 h 2 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:25 ET): I absolutely love this play and the fact it’s been moved into the Sunday night spot makes it all the more enticing. I am nowhere near as high on the Seahawks as the market seems to be, despite Russell Wilson and company being 5-0 straight up. They have the worst defense in the league, at least in terms of yards per game allowed and they are giving up 35 more YPG passing than the next worst team. That Arizona is on a short week here while Seattle is off a bye is offset by the fact the home team is catching points. My own power rankings actually say they should be the favorite this week! Take the points. The Cardinals made short work of Dallas Monday night, winning that game 38-10 thanks to four Cowboys turnovers. It won’t be that easy this week, but Arizona is up for the challenge. They are 4-2 SU despite having played just two home games and one of their losses (a surprise to Detroit) was by a field goal. This will be the 1st time Arizona is getting points since their Week 1 upset of the 49ers. Though they’ve obviously seen some weak offenses to this point, the fact they are allowing just 18.7 PPG is still impressive. In fact, only Baltimore is allowing fewer points per game! As good as Wilson & the Seattle offense has looked, the team is being outgained on a per game basis. They have been outgained in all but one game, a 31-23 win over Miami where they were very lucky that the Dolphins kept settling for field goals. Two weeks ago against Minnesota (also on SNF), the Seahawks were outgained 449-314 and kept scoreless in the 1H by a pretty suspect defense. Arizona’s Kyler Murray has five games this season with at least one passing and one rushing TD. The Cardinals have gone 5-1-1 ATS the L7 meetings with Seattle and this is their best team during that timespan. 10* Arizona |
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10-25-20 | Bucs v. Raiders UNDER 53.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -108 | 125 h 48 m | Show |
9* Under Bucs/Raiders (4:05 ET): This was originally supposed to be the Sunday Night game, but had to be moved due to COVID-19 concerns with the Raiders. In a terrible turn of events, Las Vegas may be without its ENTIRE starting offensive line this week! That’s a horrible situation no matter the opponent, but this week the Silver and Black happen to be facing a defense that is giving up a league-low 282 YPG and is second in sacks with 22. Do not expect the Raiders to do much scoring in this one. Take the Under. Every Raiders’ game this season has gone Over this season (your result vs. Buffalo could vary) and the Over is 7-0-1 the L8 meetings w/ the Bucs, including that Super Bowl debacle when Jon Gruden was coaching AGAINST them. But given the situation that Las Vegas is in here, you certainly expect those trends to be bucked this week. The Raiders like to run the ball, but behind a makeshift O-line that’s going against the top run defense in the league, they aren’t about to have much success doing so. Tampa Bay was a HUGE winner for us last Sunday (Game of the Month) as they crushed the Packers 38-10. It was the fourth time in the last five games they held the opponent to 20 points or less. If they can keep Aaron Rodgers to just 107 yards passing, imagine the nightmare Derek Carr is in for as he tries to throw the ball behind a bunch of backups. The Bucs won’t score that many points this week, simply because they won’t have to. Last week, they had a pick-six and a one-play TD drive after another INT, so 38 pts was misleading. In terms of pace of play, these are two of the slowest teams in the league. 9* Under Bucs/Raiders |
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10-25-20 | Panthers v. Saints UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 122 h 41 m | Show |
9* Under Panthers/Saints (1:00 ET): Coming out of a bye is usually considered a luxury, but not if you’re NOT healthy. New Orleans will be without both their starting WRs this week as Michael Thomas is still injured and Emmanuel Sanders tested positive for COVID. This is a Saints team that’s trailed by double digits each of its last two games, both of which were against losing teams (Detroit, Chargers). Whether the injuries cost them a win this week remains up for debate, but I do think that for the 1st time this season we’re about to see a Saints’ game stay Under the total. Carolina comes in at 3-3, which is better than most would have expected. They were favorites for the first time last week, but lost 23-16 to Chicago and really it wasn’t that close as they got their only TD in the 4th quarter. They were held to a season-low 303 total yards and for the 4th time this season were held to 23 points or fewer. On the bright side, the Panthers’ defense has been steadily improving, holding the L4 opponents to an average of just 19 PPG. They gave up only 261 total yards to the Bears last week, which was the second time in three weeks they allowed less than 300. I don’t think the Panthers are going to move the ball on the ground very effectively in this game as the Saints defense remains very stout against the run, giving up just 3.6 yards per carry. Remember Carolina lost RB Christian McCaffrey for the season, which is a very big deal! New Orleans knows Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater well (he played for them LY) and hopefully Bridgewater can provide insight to his own defense on how to stop Drew Brees & the NO offense. These NFC South rivals do have a history of going Over against one another, but this could close as the highest O/U line for one of their games since 2016. The only other time since then we’ve seen a total of 50+, it ended up being a 12-9 final. 9* Under Panthers/Saints |
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10-25-20 | Bills v. Jets +11 | Top | 18-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Just hold your nose and take the points. At 0-6 SU/ATS, the Jets are obviously awful and considered by just about everybody to be the worst team in the league. But also, it’s been 22 years since a team opened 0-7 SU/ATS. That’s happened only three times in the Super Bowl era. The most consecutive ATS losses to open a season was 8 (by the ‘03 Raiders), so eventually a ticket is going to cash for the Flyboys. With Sam Darnold now set to return, why not this week? This is a ton of points to be getting at home. It’s not just about how many points the Jets are getting here, though I should point out my own power rankings say anything above 8.5 is a solid value. Buffalo is also in a terrible situation as it will be playing its third game in a 12-day span. This is the second week in a row they are on short rest. Last Monday, they came out sluggish against the Chiefs and ended up losing 26-17. It was the second straight game where they were held to 17 pts or less. While those games were against two of the AFC’s best, I’ll reiterate something I said last week & that’s I am not as high on the Bills as others seem to be. The Bills have a negative scoring differential on the year (-12). In addition to Darnold’s likely return, the Jets are expected to be healthy at WR for the 1st time all season. Rookie Denzel Mims is set to make his debut. He and Breshad Perriman form a pretty decent duo for Darnold to throw to. For the record, if for some reason Darnold does NOT take the field, this play still stands. Getting back to the situation for Buffalo, not only are they on short rest for a second straight week, they’ve got the Patriots on deck. The Jets have held four of six opponents below 250 yds passing and Bills QB Allen has looked suspect in the L2 games. 8* NY Jets |
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10-24-20 | West Virginia -2.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (5:30 ET): The Mountaineers have traditionally excelled as favorites, at least the few seasons they have. They are 11-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in the role the L3 seasons, which includes last week’s push against Kansas where they were laying 21 points. The number is a lot more manageable this week, though WVU is on the road. But Texas Tech has really struggled in the early going and as mentioned in the Oklahoma State writeup, favorites of 4 pts or less are 20-9 ATS this season. Lay this short number as well. Really, Texas Tech’s “best” performance of the year came in a 63-56 overtime loss to Texas here in Lubbock. They blew a double digit 4Q lead in that one and ever since then it’s been all downhill. The Red Raiders lost 31-21 at Kansas State and then 31-15 at Iowa State two weeks ago. Their only victory of the season was against FCS Houston Baptist and even then the defense surrendered 600 total yards and needed to stop a 2-pt conversion to seal an ugly 35-33 win. Henry Colombi, a Utah State transfer that followed HC Matt Wells to Lubbock, is going to be making his first career start here. West Virginia’s defense has been tremendous this season as it is allowing 240.3 total yards per game and only 4.05 yards per play. They played a lot better in their only loss, 27-13 at Oklahoma State, than the final score shows. On offense, the Mountaineers are running the ball a lot better than they did a year ago, averaging almost 190 YPG behind Leddie Brown. Texas Tech’s defense has just been wretched, giving up almost 500 YPG and allowing all four opponents to score at least 31 pts. 8* West Virginia |
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10-24-20 | Georgia Tech v. Boston College -3 | Top | 27-48 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
8* Boston College (4:00 ET): Here’s another short number that has me a bit perplexed. Georgia Tech just got annihilated by Clemson last week, losing 73-7. Little is expected from the Yellow Jackets this season. Obviously, last week will be as “bad as it gets,” but I don’t think Boston College will have much problem winning this game in Chapel Hill. While they too were on the wrong end of a blowout last Saturday (40-14 vs. Va Tech), that result can easily be explained by the fact the Eagles turned it over five times. Lay the points here. Georgia Tech has two wins, both upsets, but neither are as impressive as they looked at the time. Opening the season with a 16-13 win at Florida State certainly turned some heads, but FSU was a much different team back then and still is nowhere as good as many thought they’d be. Two weeks ago, on a Friday night, the Yellow Jackets upset Louisville 46-27 in Atlanta. But they were actually outgained and a +3 TO margin was the story there. The other three games have seen GT get outscored 159-48. Yes, most of that was Clemson. But the Yellow Jackets also gave up 37 points to Syracuse. Boston College also has a couple of upset wins on its resume, theirs coming at the expense of Duke and Pitt. They also took North Carolina to the wire (lost 26-22) here at home. This will actually be just the 2nd time the Eagles have been favorites this season, the first being an unimpressive 21-16 win over Texas State. But they aren’t about to take a conference rival, one they haven’t beaten since 2007, lightly. When it’s not generating turnovers, the Georgia Tech offense can’t stop anybody. BC QB Jurkovec has gone over 300 yds passing in 4 of 5 games. I don’t see how GT shakes off last week’s loss. 8* Boston College |
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10-24-20 | Alabama v. Tennessee UNDER 66 | Top | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Alabama/Tennessee (3:30 ET): Alabama is one of only two teams in the country that’s played at least four games and has yet to see an Under. While an offense averaging 48.5 PPG (#2 in the country behind Texas, who is the other 4-0 Over team) has been a driving force, the Crimson Tide’s defense has surprisingly given up an average of 28.8 PPG, which is very high for a Nick Saban outfit. Of course, that number of PPG allowed is still heavily inflated by the Ole Miss game (where the Tide allowed 48 pts). The other three games have seen them allow no more than 24 and I think we’re in store for an Under this week. This rivalry, played annually on the third Saturday of October, has not gone well for Tennessee in recent years. Their last win came back in 2006 (here in Knoxville), which was the year before Saban took over Bama. The Tide have been ranked in the top 8 for each of the last 12 meetings and incredibly this will be the 10th time under Saban they’ve been ranked #1 or #2 when facing Tennessee (were #1 each of the last four years). The Vols have had all sorts of trouble scoring on Saban’s defense, never scoring more than 21 and getting held to an average of just 12.3 PPG! Tennessee comes into this year’s matchup averaging just 23.5 PPG after it was held to only 7 points by Kentucky last week. It was the second week in a row they lost and were held below 300 total yards. They turned it over seven times during that stretch. Bama’s defense is going to get better on third down, it could rain Saturday afternoon in Knoxville and this is the highest total (by a lot) for any Tennessee game this season. For Alabama, only the Ole Miss game had a higher O/U line. While Bama can definitely score, if they are up big in the 2H, they’ll take their “foot off the gas” as per usual. 10* Under Alabama/Tennessee |
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10-24-20 | Virginia Tech v. Wake Forest +10 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
9* Wake Forest (3:30 ET): Wake Forest has long been a “dangerous” team under Dave Clawson. It seems as if almost every year the Demon Deacons outperform expectations and that’s the sign of good coaching. While it was by no means an “impressive” showing, Wake covered for us in the season opener against Clemson. After that, they suffered a 3-pt loss at NC State. But now they are off B2B wins, squaring the record at 2-2 SU. The Deacons have scored a total of 148 points in the L3 games, making them a tough team to want to lay points against (as Virginia found out last week). This is a generous number you should take. Virginia Tech comes in off a 40-14 win over Boston College, but that final score was misleading in the sense the Hokies only had a slight +26 edge in total yards. How they were able to turn it into a blowout was thanks to FIVE BC turnovers. This Hokies’ defense has had all sorts of trouble stopping people as it is giving up 471.8 YPG. It was just two weeks ago that they gave up 56 points and 656 total yards. That was a road game. Va Tech is 0-2 ATS on the road as they also failed to cover as favorites in a 38-31 win over Duke. Wake Forest may not be North Carolina. But they are better than Duke, yet are getting basically the same amount of respect from the oddsmakers. Actually, this number has been steamed up a bit, which I don’t understand as my own power rankings have this one rated close to a pick ‘em! Ranked teams are a woeful 19-41 ATS this season when facing an unranked opponent and that is what we have here. Virginia Tech is just 7-19-1 ATS as a road favorite going back to 2012, including 4-9-1 under Justin Fuente. The Demon Deacons are 13-5 ATS vs. Top 25 teams under Clawson, including the cover vs. Clemson in the season opener. 9* Wake Forest |
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10-24-20 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma State -3 | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma State (3:30 ET): As the only Big 12 team w/o a loss, #6 OK State is probably the conference’s lone chance of sending a team to the CFP. #17 Iowa State is also unbeaten in conference play, but suffered a loss to Louisiana in the season opener that now looks worse than it did a month ago. I’m a little surprised that in Stillwater this line is so low. Favorites have generally struggled ATS this year in College Football, but have covered 10 of the 11 matchups of Top 25 teams so far. Furthermore, chalk of 4 pts or less have gone 20-9 ATS including 9-2 as the home team. Lay the short number in this one. The reason Iowa State is getting so much respect here probably has to do with the fact HC Matt Campbell has been tremendous in his career as a dog (32-14 ATS) and is 5-0 ATS vs. Top 10 opponents. But the Cyclones easily could be 1-3 SU instead of 3-1 right now. Not only did they lose outright (as a 13-pt home favorite) to Louisiana, but they were outgained at TCU (won 37-34) and trailed by double digits against Oklahoma. Really, the only “complete” performance we’ve seen from ISU was the 31-15 win over Texas Tech two weeks ago, but that’s a team still winless in Big 12 play. This will - easily - be the best defense that will have faced to date. Oklahoma State has been off for three weeks (COVID-19 related, obviously), which has allowed for QB Spencer Sanders to get healthy. Sanders was injured early in the first game vs. Tulsa and the offense has certainly suffered in his absence. Yet the Pokes are still 3-0. They’ll only get better with Sanders back in the mix. The defense has allowed just 27 points in three games and is #1 in the country on third down, allowing only a 17% conversion rate. The Cowboys have won 7 of the last 8 meetings (including 34-27 LY as a 10-pt dog in Ames) and are 5-3 ATS. 8* Oklahoma State |
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10-23-20 | Tulsa -10.5 v. South Florida | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 53 h 46 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (7:30 ET): Tulsa has played just two games in 2020 but both were against good teams (Oklahoma State, UCF) and they came out 2-0 ATS. They upset UCF as a 3 TD underdog and nearly did the same to OK State getting an even larger number (I had them in that game). The Golden Hurricane were scheduled to face a third straight ranked opponent (Cincinnati) last week, but that had to be shelved due to COVID-19. Now, off an unscheduled break, they finally get to face a lesser opponent in USF. South Florida looked as if they might pull off their own upset last Saturday in Temple. Getting double digits, they were ahead most of the game, but ultimately lost 39-37. That kind of effort was a “far cry” from what we’d seen from the Bulls previously. Besides Temple, they’ve been outscored 124-31 by FBS opponents. Every loss was by at least 20 points including one here at home to lowly East Carolina. The team’s only win this year was against The Citadel and they’ve allowed 39+ points in three of five games. While Tulsa may be unaccustomed to laying this kind of weight on the road, they should be more than ready for what shapes up as their easiest game to date. The Golden Hurricane’s defense has been much improved. After falling behind UCF early, they held the Golden Knights to just 10 points over the final three quarters. That was after holding OK State to just three points in the first three quarters of the season opener. This team was a lot better than its record showed LY and has a senior QB Zach Smith leading an offense that will continue to improve. Tulsa is simply a much better football team than USF. 10* Tulsa |
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10-22-20 | Giants +4.5 v. Eagles | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:20 ET): For the first time this season, the Giants are off a win. Even though they got outgained (337-240), needed a late defensive TD and then had to hold off a late Washington 2-point try. It was a 20-19 final score. Ron Rivera’s decision to go for 2 (and the win) actually cost Giants’ bettors who played the spread as that line closed -2. But it’s back to the underdog role this week for Joe Judge and the G-Men against a similarly struggling Eagles outfit that also has just one win. I’m taking the points here. Philadelphia is as banged up as any team in the league right now. On Tuesday, they did announce that they expect WR DeSean Jackson and RT Lane Johnson to play in this game. However, that comes just as RB Miles Sanders and TE Zach Ertz were injured in the 30-28 loss to Baltimore on Sunday. All the injuries on offense have caused QB Carson Wentz to have a bad start to the year. While Wentz did rally the Eagles late vs. Baltimore, that was after falling behind 24-6 after three quarters and ultimately the rally fell short. Though both the Giants and Eagles’ games last week were ultimately decided on failed 2-point conversions in the final minute, the ironic thing is the team that won (Giants) failed to cover while the team that lost (Eagles) did cover. Still, Philadelphia remains one of the league’s biggest underachievers at 1-4-1 SU as they are 0-3 SU/ATS as favorites. This line opened too high and I still like the Giants at the current price as they’ve been in every game but one this year. The Eagles have the same number of DD losses (2) as the Giants. Their ATS woes as a favorite actually go back awhile (8-16 ATS L24) including 5-11 when laying 3.5 to 9.5. The Giants are shockingly 17-5 ATS L22 as a road dog, including 8-1 L9 when getting 3.5 to 7. 10* NY Giants |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State UNDER 68 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State (7:30 ET): Arkansas State comes into this weeknight Sun Belt showdown at 3-2 SU overall on the season. They are off their 1st conference win, a wild 59-52 shootout against Georgia State, which took place last Thursday. That was a real back & forth game where neither team led by more than 7 points. It was not just the second straight game that Ark State scored 50+, it marked the second time in three games that they gave up 50+! The Over is 4-0 their L4 games. Appalachian State hasn’t played in almost a month due to COVID-19 cancellations. Their last game, which took place on Sept 26, also saw them hang 50+ points. But it was against a FCS opponent (Campbell). The last time App State faced an FBS opponent, which was Marshall, they lost 17-7. Their only other game was a 35-20 win over Charlotte in the season opener. The Mountaineers haven’t covered one game all year (0-3 ATS) as they head into their conference opener Thursday night. This is the highest O/U line for any of their games thus far. Most are going to expect a high-scoring affair here. But these teams’ offensive numbers are both somewhat inflated due to facing a FCS opponent. Expect there to be a bit of a “fire” lit under the Arkansas State defense as the coordinator was fired shortly after the Georgia State game. Appalachian State very well could be rusty on offense after such an unusually long layoff. In three road games, Arkansas State hasn’t scored more than 35 points and twice they were held below 25. They are 12-5 L17 Under as an underdog. App State is allowing only 19.3 PPG. 10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:15 ET): I feel that it’s always worth monitoring “look-ahead lines.” The vast majority of the time, you won’t find much difference. But for this game, the line swung severely in the wake of the Dak Prescott injury. The only line to move more (relative to the look-ahead line) was the Sunday nighter between the Rams and 49ers. The initial adjustment here, while understandable (Prescott is a big loss!), was too severe. I know the defense has been a MAJOR question mark to this point, but I think the Cowboys with Andy Dalton are going to be alright. Thanks to a 2-0 start, Arizona quickly grabbed the attention of the market. This will actually be the 5th consecutive game where they are favored and third straight on the road! Consider that the Cardinals had been an underdog 16 straight times before these L5 games. Under HC Kliff Kingsbury, they are just 2-3 STRAIGHT UP as a favorite. That includes an outright loss at home to Detroit three weeks ago and an outright loss at Carolina two weeks ago. Two of their three wins this season have come against Washington and the Jets, who are maybe the two worst teams in the league. Dalton will have an excellent set of skill position players at his disposal. He won’t put up the numbers Prescott did, but I expect him to improve the team’s turnover margin. While I don’t think the Cowboys are going to continue to lead the league in yards per game, look for the defense to improve. Certainly, it (the defense) can’t be any worse. Dallas is the only team in the league that’s still winless ATS. So they’re due and it just so happens they’re undervalued here. Arizona has been a disaster on MNF through the years, going 2-11-1 ATS L14. The Cardinals have only forced 3 TO’s all season. 10* Dallas |
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10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 25 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (8:25 ET): The lookahead line for this Sunday night NFC West matchup was Niners -3. Once they (SF) lost to Miami last week, 43-17, the line quickly “jumped the fence” and now it’s the Rams favored by a field goal. That’s far too big of a shift in my opinion as the Niners are now healthier than they have been since Week 1 and playing at home. At 2-3 SU, they have to be very disappointed as they went off as the betting favorite in all five games. They’ve been favored by 6.5 or more in four of the games. The Rams are just the opposite. They’ve gone 4-1 SU despite being favored only twice. They are coming off two very easy wins, the two games where they were favored, over the Giants and Redskins (who are a combined 1-9 SU). The one time this year that the Rams faced a team with a winning record was Week 3 in Buffalo and they fell behind in that game 28-3 before a miracle comeback fell short. That’s also notable because they’d played out East the week before, which is also the case here. The 49ers should be highly motivated this week considering they are winless at home, losing outright to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins. QB Garoppolo, who didn’t appear ready last week, is reportedly now feeling “great.” Despite being 2-3 SU, the Niners have outscored their opponents this season. They are 5-0 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season, the only team in the league w/o an ATS loss when taking points during that time frame. I think this is a great value relative to where the line was originally going to be set. Take the points. 8* San Francisco |
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10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs +1 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 71 h 34 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (4:25 ET): I still don’t understand how the Bucs lost in Chicago last Thursday and that’s coming from someone that HAD the Bears. The Tampa defense certainly did its job, allowing just 4.1 yards per play, which I *believe* was the second lowest YPP average by any team this season (Washington averaged less in Week 1). It was 13-0 early in the 2Q. But it ended up a 20-19 final in the Bears’ favor, thanks to a last minute FG. Now at 3-2 SU, the Bucs could sure use a win here. While up against an unbeaten opponent coming off its bye, Tampa is off its own ‘mini-bye’ and I like the spot for them. I will freely admit that my calls for Green Bay regression in 2020 don’t look so great right now. The Packers are 4-0 and have the NFC’s best point differential. But I still don’t think they are going to match LY’s 13-3 SU record. It’s worth noting that the last three Packer opponents have been w/o their top WR. So that’s helped. GB also got the benefit of facing Minnesota in the season opener and that was their 1st game w/o Stefon Diggs. The Pack have also yet to commit a turnover, which will obviously change sooner rather than later. Tampa Bay’s defense continues to allow under 300 YPG (#2) and you simply cannot run on them as they are allowing just 58.4 YPG over land, which is easily a league best. Green Bay has run for less than 90 yards in two of its games. With three extra days between games, the offense should be healthier as HC Bruce Arians has said he thinks WR Godwin should be ready to go. That’s huge. Despite being the only unbeaten ATS team in the league, Green Bay shouldn’t be favored here as Aaron Rodgers is just 4-8 ATS as a road favorite the L5 seasons and Tom Brady is 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS as a home dog. 10* Tampa Bay |
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10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
9* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Playing on an atypically short week, it looks as if the Titans are being counted out again. The team just played Tuesday - when it buried Buffalo 42-16 as a 3.5-point home dog. We went with Tennessee in that one, despite all the COVID-19 distractions, and they responded in kind. Despite now being 4-0 SU, Tuesday marked the Titans’ 1st cover of the 2020 season. Maybe that’s another reason why this line is so low. But whatever the reason is, the line is TOO low. My own power rankings say Tennessee should be favored by more than a TD at home here. Lay the points. Houston was a prime candidate for regression in 2020 and regress they have. They were the first team to make a coaching change, firing Bill O’Brien after an 0-4 start. Predictably, the Texans responded with a win, but note that it was against a poor Jacksonville team they were favored to beat by a touchdown. Truthfully, even though this was a playoff team a year ago, the Texans weren’t very good. They had a negative point differential in 2019 and the offseason was filled with questionable personnel moves by O’Brien. That’s why I felt they were a prime candidate for regression. I think it’s about time we start giving Titans’ QB Ryan Tannehill some much deserved credit. Since he took over as the starter here (from Marcus Mariota, remember him?), the team has gone 11-3 straight up while averaging over 30 points per game. That’s really impressive. Tannehill has been especially effective in the red zone this year, going 14 for 18 w/ 9 TD passes and no INTs. The Titans scored a TD on all 6 RZ possessions against Buffalo last week and now face a Texans defense that’s given up 28+ pts to every opponent besides Jacksonville. HC Mike Vrabel blitzed a lot on defense Tuesday and that approach should be effective again here against a suspect Texans’ offensive line. The Titans are simply a much better team than Houston and are playing at home. That’s not reflected in this line. 9* Tennessee |
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10-17-20 | North Texas +6.5 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 52-35 | Win | 100 | 47 h 14 m | Show |
10* North Texas (5:00 ET): This week’s top selection boils down to the simple fact that I don’t think Middle Tennessee deserves to be laying a TD to anyone. This is a team that opened its season with a pair of horrible losses, 42-0 at Army and 47-14 to Troy, the latter of which I cashed in on. I did then turn around and tell you to take the points as the Blue Raiders traveled to UTSA on a Friday night. They covered there (as 6-pt dogs), but still lost by two. Another close loss (20-17) followed, at the hands of Western Kentucky, leaving MTSU at 0-4. Finally, they won a game last week, though it was by just a FG over FIU. The fact Middle Tennessee was a 6-point underdog to UTSA should tell you “all you need to know.” The market has shifted too far in the other direction following three consecutive ATS victories. I have these teams rated almost dead even, so even if factoring in a little bit of a home field edge for MTSU, this number should be a lot shorter. It will be the first time this season that the Blue Raiders are favored. I’m not going to try and convince you that North Texas is a great team, but the Mean Green do have a great offense that will put up enough points to stay within the number here. North Texas actually entered last week with a Top 10 rushing offense (in the country!) but were held to just 97 yards on 27 attempts as they fell behind early against Charlotte. It was the third straight game the defense gave up 41+ points. But the Mean Green still lead C-USA with 550 total YPG and 347 passing. QB Austin Aune is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. Middle Tennessee is still giving up 35 PPG and has failed to cover four of the last five times they’ve been favored. Had the Blue Raiders not scored a GW TD in the final 80 seconds last week, they’d be entering this game at 0-5 and we’d have a much more accurate line. Take the points. 10* North Texas |
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10-17-20 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas UNDER 76 | Top | 21-33 | Win | 100 | 54 h 17 m | Show |
9* Under Ole Miss/Arkansas (3:30 ET): When Lane Kiffin was hired to be the head coach of Ole Miss, you had to figure there wouldn’t be many dull Saturdays in Oxford. But even by Kiffin standards, these first three games have been pretty insane (especially last week’s). There have been 86, 83 and 111 pts scored. However, some context should be provided as they’ve faced two top five teams (Florida & Alabama) plus the one win (over Kentucky) went to OT. Still, that’s a lot of scoring. The Over is obviously 3-0 in Ole Miss games. It was thought that by playing an all-SEC schedule this year, Arkansas would be having many LONG Saturdays. However, the Razorbacks seem to be vastly improved as they’ve won at Miss State and should have won at Auburn last week. Being 3-0 ATS (also covered vs. Georgia) is a nice way for HC Sam Pittman’s own SEC tenure to begin as they hadn’t seen many league wins in Fayetteville in recent years. Prior to Pittman taking over, the Hogs had lost 19 in a row in conference play. This is the highest total on the board this week in College Football, which I can’t say surprises me. But the Ole Miss’ offense can’t possibly keep putting points on the board like it has and this is an obvious flat spot after the Alabama loss. The defense can only improve and facing one of the weaker SEC offenses is the perfect prescription. Arkansas is only averaging 19.7 PPG through three games. For a game to go Over this number, Ole Miss needs a suitable “dance partner” and the Razorbacks are simply NOT that team. 9* Under Ole Miss/Arkansas |
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10-17-20 | Navy v. East Carolina UNDER 57 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
8* Under Navy/East Carolina (12:00 ET): Last week marked the first time Navy played a “good” full 60 minutes of football. Their first win, 27-24 over Tulane, saw them have to battle back from a 24-0 halftime deficit. So it had to feel good to lead the whole way against Temple, even if the Midshipmen needed to stop a late 2 pt conversion for the win. Still, let’s not pretend “all is well” in Annapolis. The Middies were still outgained LW (407-299) and their two losses this year have come by a total of 85 points. East Carolina had its own problems the first two games (gave up 100 points!) but finally got into the win column LW with a 44-24 win over USF, who looks to be as bad as any team in the American Conference this season. Last week marked the first game this year that the Pirates didn’t turn the ball over (had 7 TO’s first two weeks). Like Navy, I don’t expect things to go as well offensively here as they did a week ago. ECU cannot again expect to the beneficiary of four scoring drives that start in opposing territory, which is what happened against USF. With these teams having combined to go 7-0 Over, it’s a little surprising that the total has come down. But this is a high O/U line for Navy. The previous high was last week (51.0) and none of their games have seen more than 60 pts scored. All of East Carolina’s games have been high-scoring, but like Navy, they look to control the clock. The Pirates actually lead the American in time of possession. Navy’s run game is not as effective as it’s been in years past (3.5 YPC) and they are averaging less than 260 total YPG. This will be a surprisingly low-scoring affair. 8* Under Navy/East Carolina |
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10-17-20 | Pittsburgh +13.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 19-31 | Win | 100 | 42 h 8 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (12:00 ET): Considering the performance we just saw Miami turn in at Death Valley, the line move here has me really perplexed. As I’d anticipated, “The U” got totally outclassed by top-ranked Clemson last Saturday night in a 42-17 defeat that really could have been much worse. The Hurricanes were outgained 550-210 and got one of their two TDs off a blocked FG attempt at the end of the half. Clemson also missed two field goals and had a WR drop a pass that would have resulted in a TD. The question now becomes - “how does Miami respond after such a humbling defeat?” Well, history really doesn’t seem to be on their side. First off, the last three ACC teams to lose to Clemson have all lost again the following week. Furthermore, since 2009, ranked teams are 9-25 ATS the week after facing the Tigers including 2-9 ATS if they are laying double digits. The ‘Canes are 2-0 ATS as DD chalk so far this season, but those games were against UAB and Florida State. Prior to this season, they’d been on a 2-14 ATS run when favored by seven or more points and last year they went 0-4 ATS w/ three outright losses as DD chalk. Like Miami, Pitt has taken a step back following a 3-0 SU start. They’ve lost B2B weeks, but those losses (BC, NC State) were both by one point. Basically, the Panthers are two plays away from being 5-0. They outgained NC State by more than 100 yards, but gave up a late TD pass. Then they lost in OT to BC on a missed XP. QB Kenny Pickett, who leads the FBS in passing yards, is dealing with an injured ankle. That may explain the line move, but HC Pat Narduzzi seemed hopeful that he would play. Regardless, Narduzzi is 18-9-1 ATS in road games including 5-1 as a DD dog. Take the points. 8* Pittsburgh |
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10-16-20 | SMU v. Tulane +6.5 | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 60 m | Show |
10* Tulane (6:00 ET): Tulane is 2-2 SU on the year, but easily could be 4-0. In both losses, they held a double digit lead - 24-0 over Navy and 24-7 over Houston. Now the Green Wave only managed to gain a paltry 221 total yds LW vs. Houston, but considering they were +5 in turnovers, that’s a game you HAVE to win. While it should be pointed out that Tulane did have to come from behind (at South Alabama) for one of its two wins, they also waxed Southern Miss 66-24 the first time I took them. This will be the third straight time (also had them vs. Houston), but the difference now is they’re a home dog for the 1st time in 2020. SMU is 4-0. They’ve had a couple of close wins, the first being the season opener at Texas State (where I cashed the Under) and then two weeks ago against Memphis. In that Memphis game, the Ponies prevailed 30-27 as a 1.5-pt favorite. But the defense gave up nearly 600 total yards, only to benefit from four Memphis turnovers. Note that three of those turnovers took place in Mustangs territory, one of them an end zone INT. It was the second time this year that the SMU defense surrendered over 500 yards. SMU might be coming into this one ranked #17 in the country, but that’s a case of the pollsters simply looking at the WL record w/o any real context. I’ve got them outside the top 30 of my own power rankings and that doesn’t even include teams from the Big 10/Pac 12. SP+ has them at #40. Tulane’s running game, which was shockingly held to just 70 yds last week, is usually very effective. Take away a game vs. FCS Stephen F Austin and the SMU run defense gives up over 200 YPG at 4.7 YPC. While the SMU offense is #1 in the country in yards per game, they just lost their leading rusher and receiver to injury in the Memphis game and that is obviously quite significant. SMU is just 2-6 ATS its L8 tries as a road favorite while Tulane has covered five in a row as a home dog. Having lost five years in a row to SMU, this is a revenge game. Take the points here. 10* Tulane |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State +4 v. Arkansas State | Top | 52-59 | Loss | -114 | 48 h 41 m | Show |
10* Georgia State (7:30 ET): Georgia State has played only two games so far. They’ve covered both and probably should be 2-0 straight up as well. They opened the season by taking on Sun Belt favorite Louisiana. In that game, the Panthers jumped out to an early 2 TD lead. That’s pretty significant as they were 17-point underdogs! Unfortunately, they could not hold on, losing 34-31 in overtime. After a game with Charlotte was postponed (COVID), Georgia State wasn’t going to be denied against East Carolina. Despite being a 1.5-point dog (at home), the Panthers led by 25 in the 1st half and won 49-29. Arkansas State has played four games. They are 2-2 straight up and 3-1 against the spread. Clearly, the Red Wolves’ most impressive performance to date was the win over Kansas State. They went to Manhattan and won 35-31 as a 15-point dog. Give ASU credit for that win, but they’ve also lost by 13 to Memphis and by 29 at Coastal Carolina. In both losses, the defense surrendered 500+ yards. Saturday’s 50-point effort doesn’t “carry much water” with me as it was against a FCS team (Central Arkansas). It was also only five days ago! So this is a very unusual, quick turnaround for the team laying points. Georgia State is much more rested coming into this Thursday night game. In its two losses, Arkansas State has surrendered over 200 rush yards. That’s notable with Georgia State having rushed for 480 yards in its two games. So far, the ASU defense ranks LAST among Sun Belt teams, giving up 456.5 yards and 36.8 points per game. Last year, Georgia State put up 52 points and 722 total yards (340 rushing) on this ASU defense. A team that’s led both games by DD, getting points, is a good value against a side that has barely led in any of its games vs. FBS opposition. 10* Georgia State |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 59.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
10* Under Coastal Carolina/Louisiana (7:30 ET): Coastal Carolina is much improved this season as they have averaged a Sun Belt best 44.3 PPG during a 3-0 start. QB Grayson McCall, who has completed 67% of his pass attempts thus far while averaging a stunning 17.3 yds per completion, has added a passing dimension that the offense clearly lacked last season. But if it feels like the Chanticleers’ offense has overachieved thus far, that’s because it has. Now it’s set to face the Sun Belt’s best defensive and overall team, Louisiana. Look for CC’s offense to be slowed down in this one. The key for Coastal Carolina’s offense so far has been leading the country in time of possession (they play at a very slow tempo) and converting at what is an unsustainable rate on third down (6th in the country). Enter the Louisiana defense which was tops in the SBC a year ago and returned eight starters. So far the Ragin Cajuns are giving up less than 21 PPG in regulation and they are very good on third down. Coastal Carolina’s offense lacks explosiveness and hasn’t faced a defense this good all season, so yes, their numbers are set to come down pretty dramatically. Both teams are going to look to run the ball Wednesday night, so look for that clock to always be moving. Louisiana’s offense has been disappointing so far as it has averaged just 26.3 PPG in regulation. Since upsetting Iowa State in the opener, the Cajuns were very nearly upset themselves each of the L2 games. Coastal Carolina is also improved on the defensive side of the ball as they have 26 TFL and a Sun Bet-leading 13 sacks. Look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Coastal Carolina/Louisiana |
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10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 16-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (7:00 ET): Given all the trials and tribulations associated with the COVID-19 outbreak, taking Tennessee in this spot may seem a bit “crazy.” With their facility shut down, practicing has been “touch and go.” And the team’s two top receivers - Corey Davis and Adam Humphries - are among those who have tested positive. All and all, 23 players and staff have tested positive since 9/23, making this a very trying season in Nashville. But the Titans are 3-0 straight up, even while they are 0-3 against the spread. The Buffalo bandwagon is beginning to fill as the Bills are 4-0 SU with an offense that is outperforming expectations. While the Titans’ three wins have come by a total of six points, Buffalo’s last three wins have also all been of the one-score variety. Two were by just a field goal, and while they enjoyed DD leads in both of those games, it’s worth noting the defense has struggled to hold leads in the second half. The Bills have been outgained by their opponents - the Rams and Raiders - each of the last two weeks. Were this game taking place under “normal circumstances,” I’d have Tennessee favored. These are anything but normal circumstances, but I think the line is an overreaction. I think people have forgotten the Titans are also undefeated, not to mention made the AFC Championship Game last year. This is going to be a very motivated football team come Tuesday night. I’m not as high on the Bills (relative to most people) and they too have been adversely affected by the change in schedule. The underdog has gone 5-0 ATS the L5 times these teams have met. Tennessee is 8-4 ATS L12 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 pts w/ seven outright wins. 8* Tennessee |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Under Chargers/Saints (8:15 ET): The Under has not been a popular bet either of the L2 weeks on MNF. You had the Chiefs taking on the Ravens and the Falcons facing the Packers. In the case of the latter, it was the league’s worst defense facing the top offense. Yet both times the Under hit and I’m proud to report I was on it both times. With the record amount of scoring we’re seeing across the league, more opportunities to take the Under are going to open up and for the 3rd week in a row on MNF, this is one of them. New Orleans is 4-0 Over this season. Entering Week 5, the Texans were the only other team that could claim a perfect Over mark this season and their game (vs. Jacksonville) stayed Under yday. Now that game has no real bearing on this one, obviously. However, it did illustrate that a team isn’t going to go Over (or Under) every game and sometimes all it takes is the “right” opponent. The Chargers were 3-0 Under through three weeks before last week’s wild 38-31 loss to Tampa Bay. The Chargers, who are starting a rookie QB (Justin Herbert), still only average 20.8 PPG. They actually gained just 324 yards last week, but had a defensive score + two long Herbert TD passes. Not a lot of sustained drives from them. They have injuries in the backfield (at RB). The Saints’ defense has held all four opponents under 400 yards and the Lions gained just 281 on them last week. The Saints’ offense, which will again be w/o WR Michael Thomas, hasn’t looked as good as you might think despite scoring 30+ pts in 3 of 4 games. 10* Under Chargers/Saints |
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10-11-20 | Vikings +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 57 m | Show |
9* Minnesota (8:25 ET):I know that Seattle has been a far more dominant team than they were last year when they went 11-5 SU and outscored opponents by only 7 points over the full regular season. They enter Week 5 at 4-0 SU w/ a point differential of +33. Them not regressing (as of yet) may have something to do with “letting Russ(ell Wilson) cook” or it’s simply a matter of continuity from last season. Whatever the reason, I’m not sure they keep up their level of strong play. Off their 1st win of the season, I think the Vikings are going to come out strong.. The Seahawks defense remains shaky as they are giving up 476.8 YPG, by far the most in the league. They were very fortunate to “only” allow 23 points last week as the Dolphins routinely settled for field goals. Total yards and first downs were relatively even in that game and it’s not like Miami is a great offensive team. But this Minnesota offense, led by the league’s leading rusher Dalvin Cook, has scored 30+ points against every opponent except the Colts (who have the league’s best defense. Of Seattle’s last 26 games, 22 of them have been decided by one score. So there’s a strong likelihood this ends up as a “close game.” As mentioned earlier, the Vikings finally got into the win column last week at Houston. The week previous saw them lead the Titans by double digits, only to lose on a last second FG. This is a team with excellent red zone numbers, both offensively and defensively, and I think they’re going to put up plenty of points in this game. That makes them an attractive underdog in my eyes. 9* Minnesota |
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10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns | Top | 23-32 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 15 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis (4:25 ET): Cleveland has won three straight, scoring 30+ points in all three victories. That’s a pretty significant achievement for a franchise that has not started 3-1 since 2001. But some context should be provided here. The three teams that the Browns have defeated - Cincinnati, Washington & Dallas - are a combined 3-8-1 SU and the L2 weeks have seen the Browns be the beneficiary of a +8 turnover margin. They now go from facing the league’s worst defense (Dallas) to the best defense. This is a reality check for Cleveland. The Colts are 3-1 and in addition to having the league’s best defense (on a per play and per game basis), they have the league’s 4th best point differential. They probably should be 4-0 SU (have been favored in all 4 games) but blew a lead in Week 1, a game they outgained Jacksonville by over 200 yards. Since then, they’ve allowed just 29 points (total!) and an average of 234.7 yards per game (only 4.4 yards per play). I think the Colts deserve to be favored by AT LEAST a field goal in this one. Though Indy is a bit thin at linebacker right now, they get a HUGE break in that Cleveland’s league-leading rushing attack is w/o Nick Chubb. The Colts are #1 in the league at stopping the run, allowing just 77 YPG over land. Again, this is a big step up for Cleveland after facing two of the league’s worst teams (Cincinnati, Washington) and the league’s worst defense. Their defense gave up over 500 yards last week, not a good sign even though Philip Rivers isn’t Dak Prescott. The Browns are just 4-10 SU/4-9-1 ATS L14 vs. teams w/ a winning record and haven’t faced one since a 38-6 loss at Baltimore in Week 1. 10* Indianapolis |
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10-11-20 | Bengals +13 v. Ravens | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
9* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Even with Ravens QB Lamar Jackson missing practice time this week, there was little line movement for this AFC North matchup. Can’t say I’m too surprised about that; all three Ravens wins this year have come by at least two touchdowns. But they were served a case of “humble pie” two weeks ago by Kansas City in a 34-20 loss where they were outgained 517-228. Coming off that, I faded them last week in Washington and sure enough a “ho-hum” effort resulted in me getting a ½ point cover! It’s a double digit spread again this week for Baltimore, only this time at home. It’s against a Cincinnati team that’s been surprisingly competitive. The Bengals’ two losses this year have come by a total of eight points and they tied Philadelphia on the road. Last week finally saw Zac Taylor’s team break into the win column as they rolled up 33 points and 500+ yards on Jacksonville. Rookie QB Joe Burrow has been as good as advertised thus far, throwing for 300+ yards in three consecutive games. While the Ravens have had success in the past facing rookie QB’s at home and have NEVER lost a game in which they were DD favorites, I expect this game to be close. Cincy has a history of playing Baltimore relatively close, covering five of the last seven meetings including three SU wins. Even last season, they only lost by six here in Baltimore. Ten of the Bengals’ last 16 losses have been one-score games. The Ravens haven’t looked good the L2 weeks and Jackson is surprisingly only 4-8 ATS as a home favorite. 9* Cincinnati |
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10-10-20 | Miami-FL v. Clemson -14 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 47 h 25 m | Show |
8* Clemson (7:30 ET): So this may seem like a lot of points to lay in a matchup between Top 10 teams, especially considering the fact underdog Miami is 3-0 ATS this year while favored Clemson is 0-3 ATS. But Clemson’s ATS mark certainly is in need of some context as the Tigers have had to lay 28 or more in every game thus far. I’ve played against them twice (at Wake Forest and vs Virginia), but now is the time to jump on board as October is typically the time when Dabo Swinney’s team REALLY starts to roll. Lay the points. I expect Clemson to be quite motivated for this game. That’s something you probably couldn’t say for any of the first three contests, yet the Tigers still won them all by at least 18 points. The closest margin came last week against Virginia and keep in mind Clemson gave up a late TD to make it seem closer than it actually was. They’ve covered six of the last eight times they’ve been asked to lay between 10.5 and 21 points. It is VERY rare to get them this low of a favorite at home. The last time they were -14 or less here was 2017! Miami is likely feeling quite good about itself with its 3-0 start and QB D’Eriq King playing even better than anticipated. But the Hurricanes have been outscored 92-3 in the L2 meetings w/ Clemson. Since 2015, the Tigers have gone 29-15-1 ATS following the first weekend in October and averaged an awesome 40.2 PPG. Over half of its wins in those games have been by three touchdowns! It’s rare to say a 2 TD favorite is in a “buy low” spot but Clemson has covered six of its last seven in the month of October. 8* Clemson |
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10-10-20 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky -1.5 | Top | 2-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 12 m | Show |
9* Kentucky (7:30 ET): The Wildcats are 0-2, but there’s been some bad luck along the way + you’re talking about an SEC schedule. They actually outgained Auburn 384-324 in a 29-13 loss, but were -3 in turnovers, the most costly being an INT in the end zone late in the 1st half (totally changed the game). They also outgained Ole Miss last week 559-459, but missed the XP in OT and lost 42-41. That was a game they led by two touchdowns (at home) in the 2nd half. It’s time for UK to break through this week with a win. The fact that Mississippi State was able to upset LSU (down in Baton Rouge) in the season opener is going to carry a lot of weight in the marketplace moving forward. It was an impressive way for Mike Leach to start his tenure in Starkville, but unfortunately (for him) that was followed with an outright loss to Arkansas (as 16.5-point home favorites) last week. That was the Hogs’ first SEC win since 2017 (snapped 20-game losing streak). The answer to “how good the Bulldogs are” probably lies somewhere between those two results. They aren’t as good as they looked vs. LSU nor are they as bad as last week’s result suggests. That this number has been bet down tells me that MSU is still getting too much credit for the upset of LSU. I don’t see Leach winning his first two SEC road games as a dog. Kentucky came into 2020 w/ high hopes for Mark Stoops’ 8th season in Lexington. The home team has won five straight in this particular SEC rivalry and covered the spread in the last six. There were some other ridiculous things that went against Kentucky last week (fumbled at goal line two plays after a player should have scored a TD - but was celebrating too early and got tackled!). A Miss State team that’s turned it over four times in both games is the opponent they need to get back on track. 9* Kentucky |
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10-10-20 | Marshall v. Western Kentucky +7.5 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
8* Western Kentucky (7:30 ET): The Hilltoppers are 0-3 ATS, but at least they picked up a SU win last week. They won 20-17 at Middle Tennessee and while that was a battle of winless teams, WKU will take it. They’d previously fallen to Louisville and Liberty. I made the mistake of taking the points with them in that Louisville game (they lost by 14 as a 12.5-pt dog) and then Liberty was clearly a team not properly priced by the oddsmakers as they beat WKU outright, 30-24, as 14.5-point dogs. Now that the market has clearly shifted AGAINST the Hilltoppers, I feel that now is the time to back them again (1st time since L’ville game). Take the points. Marshall is 2-0 SU/ATS with an upset of Appalachian State under their belt. That upset occurred in their last game, but it was also three weeks ago as the Thundering Herd have since fallen victim to a COVID-19 cancellation (they were supposed to play Rice last weekend). It was the second time this year Marshall has had a game cancelled. I expect “rust” to be a bit of a factor Saturday night in Bowling Green and this Thundering Herd team has often struggled outside of Huntington. Prior to the start of the season, I would not have expected Marshall to be favored in this game, let alone by this many points. The Herd are just 2 for its last 9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and 6-13 ATS its L19 as a favorite, period. They are 1-4 ATS L5 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and 2-6 ATS when off B2B SU wins. Meanwhile, WKU is 16-6 ATS its L22 as a dog of 3.5 to 10 pts and 6-3 ATS L9 as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Marshall passing game is still a question mark (QB Grant Wells was just 11 of 25 vs. App State). Despite losing each of the L3 years to Marshall (all by 7 pts or less), WKU is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time in this C-USA rivalry. 8* Western Kentucky |
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10-10-20 | Florida State v. Notre Dame -20.5 | Top | 26-42 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
10* Notre Dame (7:30 ET): This spread should be closer to four touchdowns rather than three. In picking this one, it’s that simple for me as I’ll trust my own power rankings. Florida State is a complete mess right now having lost to Georgia Tech (as a 13-point home favorite) and Miami (52-10) and needing to come from behind to defeat FCS Jacksonville State. Because of COVID, Notre Dame has been off the L2 weeks. As a top five team, I expect them to be “ready to go” Saturday night in South Bend. Lay the points. This game marks the first time EVER that Florida State has been a double digit dog in back to back games vs. FBS opponents. They were +11.5 at Miami FL, an outrageous line in retrospect, and got totally humiliated in that one. It was 38-3 at halftime. The last five times the Seminoles have been DD dogs, not only have they lost, they’ve lost by an average of almost five touchdowns per game. Just to illustrate how far this one proud program has fallen, it was a DD dog just 10 times (in 497 games) from 1978-2017. This will now be the eighth time they’ve been a DD dog in the L34 games! Needless to say, 1st year HC Mike Norvell has his work cut out for him in Tallahassee. FSU was down 21-7 last week at home to Jacksonville State. A change was made at QB and that resulted in five straight TD drives. But that was against an FCS team. Notre Dame has won 20 straight in South Bend including 52-0 over South Florida three weeks ago. QB Ian Book is completing 62% of his passes while RB Williams has 174 yards rushing and WR Tremble has 100+ yds receiving. The ‘Noles are totally outclassed here and I love the fact this number has dipped below -21. 10* Notre Dame |
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10-10-20 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech -14 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 9 m | Show |
8* Louisiana Tech (7:30 ET): UTEP is quite easily the worst 3-1 (SU) team in the country. Two of their three wins have come against FCS opposition (Stephen F Austin and Abilene Christian) and those wins were by a combined 14 points. The Miners’ most recent victory came at LA Monroe (31-6), who I happen to have ranked dead last among the 77 FBS teams that have played a game this season. UTEP actually came into that game as a 9.5-point underdog! The only other game they played was a 59-3 loss to Texas. So it’s not a question of “IF” the Miners will lose in Ruston, LA this Saturday night, but by “how many.” Louisiana Tech figures to be in a foul mood after getting blown out by BYU last Friday, 45-14. But, in terms of the opponent, it’s a huge drop in class this week for the Bulldogs, who you may recall I had in their opener as they went to Southern Miss as prevailed 31-30 as a 7.5-point underdog. In between the Southern Miss and BYU games, La Tech beat Houston Baptist 66-38, which is what you “should” do to a FCS opponent. With the threat of Hurricane Delta, it’s almost a lock that it will rain during this game. Still, I expect a LA Tech team averaging 37 PPG to have no problems against a foe that had won a combined two games the previous two seasons. Bulldogs QB Luke Anthony is 2nd in the country with 10 TD passes and that’s despite the fact he didn’t even start the opener. Despite facing two FCS opponents, UTEP is still averaging less than 20 PPG! Another thing to watch for is third down. UTEP’s defense has been very lucky on 3rd down thus far while La Tech’s has been just the opposite. The conversion rates both defenses are allowing should start moving closer to the mean and that’s more good news for the favorite. Lay the points. 8* Louisiana Tech |
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10-10-20 | NC State v. Virginia UNDER 60.5 | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
9* Under NC State/Virginia (12:00 ET): These two ACC rivals have combined to play five games so far and all five have gone Over the total. Dating back to last season, each team is on an impressive run of Overs. The Over is 6-1 in NC State’s L7 games (3-0 this season) and it is 8-0 in Virginia’s L8 games (2-0 this season). But UVA’s point totals from the first two games are a little misleading as there has been a lot of “garbage time” scoring for a variety of reasons. I think this game bucks the trend. Take the Under. Virginia has scored just 17 points in the first three quarters of both games so far. Against Duke, they were the beneficiaries of SEVEN turnovers. Two of those seven came late in the game and were converted into touchdowns after excellent starting field position (one drive was just 10 yards). Last week vs. Clemson, they got a garbage time TD w/ 1:11 remaining, when trailing 41-17. They also scored right before the end of the first half. Not that I’m complaining mind you, as I had the Hoos +28 (in what was a wire to wire cover). UVA QB Brennan Armstrong has done much better than I had expected in “replacing” do-everything Bryce Perkins. But I still think the Cavaliers’ scoring output is misleading. While the Hoos have won nine in a row in Charlottesville, I don’t necessarily expect them to roll here. If they do, it may be because of the defense. They’re allowing just 2.8 YPC so far and last week NC State could not run the ball effectively (2.1 YPC) despite upsetting Pitt on the road. This will be the highest O/U line for either team YTD and the L2 times the Under hit for the Wolfpack, the number was 58+ pts. This is the highest O/U line for Virginia in an ACC game in a LONG time. 9* Under NC State/Virginia |
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10-09-20 | Louisville -4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 27-46 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 22 m | Show |
10* Louisville (7:00 ET): Both of these teams opened their seasons with a win only to then drop two in a row. But that’s where the similarities end for ACC rivals Louisville and Georgia Tech. The Cardinals, who started the year ranked in the Top 25, played pretty sloppy against two very good teams (Miami and Pitt). Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets were flat out dominated in losses to UCF and Syracuse, the latter of which isn’t anywhere near the caliber of opponent L’ville has seen to this point. I thought this number was too low when it initially opened. Now I see an incredible value in the Cardinals laying a short number on the road. Louisville opened its season with a 35-21 win over Western Kentucky. That should have been an even bigger blowout, but WKU got two “gift” drives that began inside the Cardinals’ 5-yard line. I’m not too worried about the losses to Miami and Pitt as Miami is clearly a very good team and then Pitt was just a three-point loss on the road. Cardinals QB Malik Cunnigham struggled against two of the better defenses in the ACC and threw three interceptions against Pitt. But he should bounce back here against a Ga Tech defense that has given up 86 points in its last two games. RB Javian Hawkins is averaging more than 5.0 YPC and WR Tutu Atwell has 229 yards and three TDs. Georgia Tech is just in its second year transitioning away from the triple option offense they ran under Paul Johnson. This is a massive rebuild for HC Geoff Collins and while the Yellow Jackets opened this season w/ a 16-13 upset of Florida State, that win doesn’t look nearly as impressive as it did last month. QB Jeff Sims has already thrown 8 INTs and the offense has also been missing last year’s leading rusher, Jordan Mason. Louisville held Pitt under 4.0 YPC two weeks ago. Speaking of defense, after giving up 49 points and 600+ total yds to Central Florida, Ga Tech then allowed 37 pts to a Syracuse team that had scored only 16 pts in its first two games. They’ve covered just 3 of their L13 home games. 10* Louisville |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears +4 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 43 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:20 ET): The lookahead line for this Thursday night game had the Bucs favored by three. It was reopened at -6 and while I’m “kicking myself” for not getting my own bet in sooner, I still think there’s plenty of value here on the Bears. My own power rankings suggested this line should be TB -1. I get that Chicago hasn’t looked great offensively, but let us not forget Tampa Bay trailed the Chargers 24-7 in the first half last week and that was at home. The Bears’ defense is good enough to at least keep this one within a field goal. Take the points. So far, Chicago has played eight halves of football. Five of them haven’t been very good, but they’re still 3-1 SU. After leading a miracle comeback the previous week in Atlanta, QB Nick Foles made his starting debut for the Bears last week vs. Indianapolis and it didn’t go so well. But he was facing the top defense in the league there. I expect this game to go much better for Foles. It shouldn’t take much with a defense that is allowing just 20.3 PPG so far. Tampa Bay hasn’t exactly faced a “murderer’s row” of QBs thus far. In fact, each of the L3 weeks has seen them face a team with a new starting QB this year: Teddy Bridgewater in Carolina, Jeff Driskel in Denver and Justin Herbert in LA. That made it pretty easy on the Bucs defense. Yes, Foles is in his first year with the Bears as well, but he’s a veteran. The Bucs are just 2-7 SU/ATS on Thursday Night Football and will be the classic case of a “public road favorite” in this one. Injuries are a much bigger factor for the Bucs right now than for the Bears as numerous skill position players have missed practice this week. 10* Chicago |
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10-08-20 | Tulane +7 v. Houston | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -113 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
10* Tulane (7:30 ET): It’s not very often that I would say a team getting a full TD on the road is better than it’s opponent, but that looks to be the case here. Tulane has a massive edge over Houston Thursday night in that they’ve already got three games under their belt while this will be the season opener for the home team (five games postponed due to COVID!). The last time we saw the Green Wave was two weeks ago and I had them in a 66-24 beatdown of Southern Miss (were only -3.5). They were obviously undervalued there and such is the case again this week. Tulane was able to hang 66 on Southern Miss despite a change at QB and losing their starting RB (Tyjae Spears) to an ACL injury. That speaks to the depth of talent they have on that side of the ball. True freshman Michael Pratt came in against USM and accounted for 182 total yards and three touchdowns. Running back, thankfully, is the Green Wave’s deepest position on offense. BOTH backups - Cameron Carroll and Stephon Huderson - went over 100 yards against Southern Miss! Now you might attribute the fact that Tulane had 572 total yards of offense to the fact they were playing a bad team. But note Houston’s defense allowed 34.0 PPG last season as the team went 4-8 SU. Tulane should be coming into this game a perfect 3-0 SU, but they blew a 24-0 halftime lead at home and lost to Navy. Still, they’ve won twice on the road already and upset Houston last season 38-31 as a five-point home dog. Off their worst season in over a decade, Houston lost QB D’Eriq King (transferred to Miami) and Clayton Tune (who did start several games LY) is going to have to deal with a Tulane defense that has NFL talent, not to mention 11 sacks and is 3rd among American Conference teams in yards per game allowed. Take the points. 10* Tulane |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers UNDER 57.5 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Falcons/Packers (8:50 ET): Given how this NFL season is going, I admit taking the Under in this particular matchup does seem risky. The two teams are a combined 6-0 Over so far and Atlanta has the worst defense in the league (most points per game allowed) while Green Bay is averaging the MOST PPG on offense. But with everyone likely to be on the Over tonight, I’m going contrarian on the total. This is the highest O/U line for any Green Bay game in the L35 years. Take the Under. This will also likely close as the highest O/U line for any NFL game in the L2 seasons. Green Bay has scored at least 37 points in every game so far, a remarkable yet unsustainable achievement. They are averaging 6.9 yards per play! No team in NFL history had ever opened 3-0 SU while scoring 35+ points every game and never turning the ball over. The Packers are the first. But they have trailed in all three games. Despite starting a different O-line combination in every game, Aaron Rodgers has been sacked only twice. I just can’t see this continuing. Atlanta has gone Under in eight consecutive primetime games, so there is that. Both teams are banged up at the receiver position as Davante Adams is questionable and Alan Lazard out for Green Bay while both Falcons starting WRs (Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley) are listed as questionable. Those would be significant absences and obviously work to the favor of the Under as neither team has a lot of depth at WR. It won’t be easy, but look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Falcons/Packers |
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10-04-20 | Eagles v. 49ers -7 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (8:20 ET): Though Philadelphia is winless SU (0-2-1) and ATS (0-3), this line may seem a bit curious to some. San Francisco is as banged up as any team in the league right now, yet still laying a touchdown in primetime against a playoff team from a year ago. I urge you not to fall for the trap of taking the Eagles in this one, for they are simply a bad football team right now. Furthermore, the 49ers are getting healthier at wideout and backup QB Nick Mullens isn’t that much of a drop off from Jimmy Garoppolo. My own power rankings suggest this number is far too low! Lay it! This is the second straight year that the Eagles have opened 0-3 ATS. Just like last season, they’ve been favored to win each of the first three games this year. Yet, they are 0-2-1 SU after an embarrassing tie with the Bengals last week. Since jumping out to a 17-0 lead on Washington in Week 1, Philly has been outscored 87-42 over the last 10+ quarters. QB Carson Wentz has not looked good at all as he has the lowest passer rating in the league and committed seven turnovers. Making matters worse, the team was down to one healthy WR at practice on Thursday. Both DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey have been ruled out for this game. The San Francisco defense is allowing just 187.3 pass yards per game so far. Don’t look for any kind of turnaround from Wentz here. When you’re dealing with as many injuries as the 49ers are, it helps to play the Jets and Giants. They crushed those two teams - 31-13 and 36-9 respectively - and now own the league’s #1 overall point differential! While the Jets & Giants may be the two worst teams in the league right now, the Eagles aren’t too far behind. Unlike Philly, the Niners are getting healthier at WR as both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are expected back here. Mullens threw for 343 yards LW w/o them and has 2,620 passing yds in nine career starts. Look for the home team to win big Sunday night. 10* San Francisco |
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10-04-20 | Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
8* Over Cardinals/Panthers (1:00 ET): Through the first three weeks of the NFL season, the play on the field has largely been defined by Overs, which are 29-19 this season, tying the highest % of Overs through the first three weeks in the last 35 seasons! Furthermore, the average O/U line in the NFL this week is right around 50, which would be an all-time record. It is likely that this week will end up having the highest number of games w/ a total of 50+ in league history. This Arizona-Carolina clash is one of eight currently w/ a total of 50 points or higher. Despite all the Overs we’re seeing, someone forgot to “send the memo” to Arizona, who is one of only two teams in the league (Chargers are the other) not to have a single game go Over to this point. It’s not like QB Kyler Murray and company aren’t scoring. They’ve averaged 25.7 PPG and more than 400 YPG. However, turnovers really hurt them in LW’s surprise 26-23 home loss to Detroit. Two of Murray’s three INTs were in Lions territory. We know the Cardinals want to “play fast” and they shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball against the defense they face this week, provided they take care of it. Carolina has been a bit more competitive than expected this year. They are off their first win, 21-16 over the Chargers. But don’t go confusing the Panthers’ defensive effort from last week as a “good one.” They still allowed over 400+ yards, most of it coming through the air from a QB (Justin Herbert) that was making only his 2nd pro start. The first two games saw the Panthers allow 65 total points. The Over had been 7-1 in Carolina’s L8 games, dating back to LY, prior to last week. The Over has hit the last four times these teams have played including a 38-20 Carolina win last season. Arizona WR DeAndre Hopkins is a game-time decision here, but on the flip-side their secondary is missing both starting safeties. 8* Over Cardinals/Panthers |
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10-04-20 | Seahawks v. Dolphins +6 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:00 ET): This might seem like an “ugly” one, but despite being 3-0 SU/ATS, Seattle has the worst defensive numbers in the league right now. They are giving up a league-high 431 YPG passing and have allowed over 500 yards total in two of the three games. They have actually been outgained in all three games! All that has largely been overlooked due to the MVP-level of QB Russell Wilson, but eventually the poor defensive play is bound to catch up to the Seahawks. This was a lucky team last year (winning 11 games despite only a +7 point differential) and 21 of their L25 games have been decided by one score! It’s not likely we’ll see the Seahawks defense start to improve this week either. All-Pro safety Jamal Adams is out this week after a groin tear last week vs. Dallas. Three other members of the secondary are currently banged up and LB Jordyn Brooks, a rookie, is also likely to miss this game. In addition to giving up the most passing yards per game in the league through three weeks, Seattle is also allowing the most yards per attempt and completion. They are just vulnerable through the air and I look for savvy Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to take advantage. Fitzpatrick should also look to hand the ball off some in this game. Rookie RB Myles Gaskin is averaging 4.6 yards per touch. The Miami offensive line is also improved in pass protection, having permitted only five sacks to this point. After losing by 10 at New England in Week 1, the Dolphins have taken undefeated Buffalo to the wire and then blew out Jacksonville 31-13 last Thursday. They’ve had 10 days to prepare for Seattle while the Seahawks are making the longest road trip (in terms of miles) possible in the league this week. 8* Miami |
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10-04-20 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team +14.5 | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): If the Dolphins play is considered “ugly,” this is one where you’ll have to straight “hold your nose!” But you need not worry that I’ve lost my mind, rather this is a lot of points we’re getting against a Ravens team in a bad situation. They just got embarrassed Monday night by the Chiefs, getting outgained 517-228 in a 34-20 loss. It’s a short week to get over that and I think the loss will have a “carry over” type effect as they are now faced with the prospect of laying two touchdowns on the road. Take the points. Washington also lost 34-20 last week, albeit to a Cleveland team that Baltimore had previously blown out by 38-6. But don’t be fooled by Washington’s score from last week. They were basically dead even in total yardage and even led going into the 4th quarter. The problem was that they turned the ball over five times. Only one of the Browns’ six scoring drives DIDN’T start in opposing territory! It’s not often that Dwayne Haskins throws for more yards in a game than Lamar Jackson, but it happened last week. Jackson threw for just 97 yards in an awful performance. Yes, he and the Ravens are likely to bounce back with a win here. But it won’t be by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for. I know some key pieces are out for Washington, including DE Chase Young and maybe WR Terry McLaurin, but at home I expect them to keep it closer than expected. 8* Washington |
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10-04-20 | Saints v. Lions UNDER 54 | Top | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
9* Under Saints/Lions (1:00 ET): This may seem like a risky bet given it involves the Saints, who have gone Over in all three games so far. But I have a bit of a feeling that this week may turn into a “tipping point” of sorts with NFL totals as the record-setting number of Overs (now 30-19-1 through Thursday) has resulted in a record-setting average O/U line for Week 4. Half of today’s games have totals in the 50’s, including this one, which is one of the higher numbers of the week. I’m going Under on this one. New Orleans won’t have WR Michael Thomas in the lineup Sunday and that’s key because right now the Saints are LAST in the league with only 283 yards from receivers. TE Jared Cook will also be out. The lack of a downfield passing game is a big reason why New Orleans has dropped consecutive games since 2017. Even when the Saints scored 34 points in the season-opening win over TB, that was misleading. They had a pick-six and were set up on short fields by several other Bucs’ turnovers. The Under is 9-4 the Saints’ L13 October games. Detroit is off its first win of the year (26-23 at Arizona), but the offense has struggled to move the ball the L2 weeks, averaging just over 300 YPG. They don’t run the ball very effectively and the Saints’ defense is very good at stopping the run. Save for the 4Q vs. Chicago and the Green Bay game, the Lions defense has played pretty well this year. They have led in all three games, so I don’t see them letting this one get out of hand. I know these teams have a history of high-scoring games against one another, but this one bucks the trend. 9* Under Saints/Lions |
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10-03-20 | Virginia +29 v. Clemson | Top | 23-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
10* Virginia (8:00 ET): Clemson has won its two games so far by a combined score of 86-13 (37-13 over Wake Forest and 49-0 over The Citadel), yet is actually 0-2 ATS as they faced massive spreads in both contests (-34.5, -50.5). They are once again massive favorites this week as they face a Virginia team they infamously drubbed in LY’s ACC Championship Game, 62-17. It’s not just Clemson, but all favorites of this size have struggled to cover this NCAAF season and UVA proved itself to be formidable enough last week against Duke. Take the points in this one. So far, all NCAAF favorites of 28 or more points this season are just 1-5 ATS including the two Clemson non-covers. We faded the Tigers in their first game as they allowed Wake Forest in through the backdoor. The reason Clemson failed to cover last week is that they took their starters out, including QB Trevor Lawrence, in the second quarter. This week is less than an ideal spot though as the Tigers have a huge, potential Top 10 showdown with Miami on deck. Don’t expect them to “open the playbook” too much against a team they easily beat last year. They’ll be saving some stuff for Miami. I was impressed with Virginia being able to hang 38 on Duke last week. That was the Cavaliers season opener. While forcing seven turnovers certainly helped, QB Brennan Armstrong (24-45, 269 yards) looked good as did WR Lavel Davis Jr (101 yds). These huge spreads figure to be an issue for Clemson all season (well, maybe not next week). Since it was an unusual offseason and the season is still young, don’t expect the Tigers to operate at peak performance quite yet. Virginia isn’t likely to pull the upset, but will take this game very seriously and keep it close enough to where they easily cover the spread. 10* Virginia |
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10-03-20 | Georgia Southern v. UL-Monroe OVER 49 | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
9* Over Ga Southern/La Monroe (7:00 ET): These teams have combined to go 5-0 Under this year. Furthermore, going back to last season, both are 4-0 Under the L4 games. But this Sun Belt matchup is a bit unique this week in that it feels quite conducive to an Over. Louisiana Monroe’s defense is obviously horrible (35.3 PPG allowed), especially against the run, which is Georgia Southern’s specialty. After dealing with some serious coronavirus issues in the early going, Ga Southern is now as healthy as they’ve been. LA Monroe has a legit claim to being the worst team in the entire country right now. The L2 wks have seen them lose to Texas State and UTEP (both of whom are also in that “worst team discussion”) by 21 and 25 points - at home. They also have a 37-7 loss to Army, which is notable because of the similarities between the Army and Ga Southern offenses. The Warhawks are allowing 263 YPG on the ground at 5.3 yards per carry, and they’ve already allowed 11 rushing TDs. Ga Southern has 476 yds on the ground in two games and should move the ball at will tonight. While Ga Southern figures to do most of the “heavy lifting” scoring-wise in this contest, we’ll also need La Monroe to score a couple touchdowns as well. They’ve scored just 30 points in three games thus far, but were a stunning 0 for 11 on third down vs. UTEP last week. Fortunately for the Warhawks, the Ga Southern defense is allowing opponents to convert on 46% of third down opportunities. Also QB Colby Suits is completing two-thirds of his pass attempts so far. Look for this to be BOTH teams’ highest-scoring game to date. 9* Over Ga Southern/La Monroe |
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10-03-20 | Charlotte +6.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
9* Charlotte (4:00 ET): Florida Atlantic has yet to play a game this season as previously scheduled dates with Ga Southern and USF had to be called off due to COVID-19 concerns. I’ve been itching to play against the Owls here in 2020 as this is a team ripe for regression after LY’s school record 11 wins. Lane Kiffin bolted the program for Ole Miss and his replacement, Willie Taggart, is off a somewhat disastrous stint at Florida State. I don’t like the idea of this team laying points to a conference foe in its season opener. Charlotte made a bowl for the 1st time last year and went 7-6 SU for HC Will Healy. Their last two games have also been called off due to COVID, though it turned out Georgia State was a false positive. Unlike FAU, the 49ers have played a game and it was against Appalachian State. Despite being outgained fairly significantly, the 49ers still managed to cover the 17-point spread as they only lost 35-20. I see the offensive attack doing a lot better here as FAU lost its four top tacklers from a season ago. Charlotte does return its starting QB from last season, Chris Reynolds. This is an offense that led C-USA in rushing LY. All signs point down for FAU in 2020 as they forced 33 takeaways last year (most in the country), which is a number they can’t possibly repeat and they lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. Since these teams became conference rivals, the road team is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS. I had FAU last year as they won 45-27 (as 1.5-point underdogs!) but this is a far less talented team this year. Charlotte QB Reynolds actually got hurt in the opener, but all the time off allowed him to heal and now he’s expected to start. Take the points! 9* Charlotte |
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10-03-20 | Texas A&M +18.5 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
8* Texas A&M (3:30 ET): This is a lot of points to be getting in a matchup of what (we were told) would be the top two teams in the SEC West this season. Obviously Alabama is #1. Texas A&M, expected to be this year’s top challenger, had a shaky first game vs. Vanderbilt. The Aggies could only manage a 17-12 win as 31.5-point home favorites. But it’s a much different pointspread this week and “the great equalizer” got Bama last week as they got backdoored by Missouri. I expect A&M to “show up” big time here. I think the Aggies’ closer than expected call last week can be attributed to numerous factors. One, it was the first game of the season. Two, there was an obvious “look ahead” to this game. Three, A&M fumbled five times and lost three. Despite the game being “too close for comfort,” the Aggies never trailed and the defense did its job. Also, RB Isaiah Spiller ran for 117 yards on just eight attempts. Everyone is seemingly counting them out this week, but that seems like an overreaction based on the preseason ranking. A&M is an experienced team with 17 starters back from LY including QB Kellen Mond, who did have a subpar game last week. I expect him to play a lot better here, even though he’s up against the #2 team in the country. This is a game they’ve been pointing to in College Station all throughout the summer and I can’t see Jimbo Fisher’s team getting blown out. Alabama is just 3-7 ATS its L10 SEC games while Texas A&M has covered 10 of 12 after allowing 20 pts or less in their previous game. 8* Texas A&M |
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10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech v. BYU UNDER 60 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 2 m | Show |
10* Under La Tech/BYU (9:00 ET): It’s only two games in, but BYU has blown past the oddsmakers’ expectations thus far. The Cougars, now ranked #22 in the country, have beaten Navy 55-3 (were -1) and Troy 48-7 (were -14.5). In two games they've exceeded the pointspread by 77 points. Since 1978, no team has exceeded the pointspread by more than 85 points in the first three games. Predictably, BYU now finds itself a big favorite for Week 3 as they welcome fellow unbeaten Louisiana Tech to Provo. Louisiana Tech was a nice winner for us two weeks ago. In their season opener, the Bulldogs went to Hattiesburg and upset favored Southern Miss 31-30 w/ a last minute TD. It was far easier last week against FCS Houston Baptist, whom they defeated 66-38 while rolling up 542 total yards, including 182 on the ground. But it won’t be that easy to move the ball this week. BYU has allowed only 10 points this season and an average of just 165 YPG. Don’t look for the team from Ruston to top 30 points in this one. Now La Tech slowing down this BYU offense may be more of a challenge. Brigham Young has gone over 600 yards in both games and has scored over 100 points! But that sort of production simply can’t continue. BYU had 19 days off between the Navy and Troy games, so let’s see how they perform on a short week for the 1st time. This O/U line has moved considerably and while both La Tech games so far have gone Over, the Under is 10-3 the Bulldogs L13 road games. The Under is 20-8 in BYU’s L28 Friday games. 10* Under La Tech/BYU |
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10-01-20 | Broncos +2 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
8* Denver (8:20 ET): This line opened up with Denver as the favorite, but quickly flipped upon the announcement that QB Brett Rypien would start for the Broncos. Rypien will already be the third different starting QB for the Broncos this season. While this seems dubious to say the least, I don’t think the line move towards the Jets is justified. Is Rypien really 4-5 points WORSE than last week’s starter Jeff Driskel? I don’t think so. Congrats if you grabbed the Jets when they were +3 earlier in the week, but betting on them to win is a different matter. I’m taking the points Thursday night. Denver wouldn’t be worth a look here normally, but facing the Jets on a Thursday night certainly opens the door. You have to remember that the Flyboys are also 0-3 SU this season, not to mention 0-3 ATS. The Broncos covered the number the first two weeks against a pair of teams that are a combined 6-0 SU this season (Tennessee and Pittsburgh). Things got out of hand quickly last week vs. Tampa Bay with them down 23-3 in the first half. An earlier turnover set the tone. Hopefully, Rypien can take care of the football, because if he can, the Jets are an easy victim. The Broncos aren’t the only team coming into Thursday night banged up. The Jets have a long injury list themselves, mostly on the offensive side of the ball. RB Le’Veon Bell as well as two receivers, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims, are out. Keep in mind the Jets offense ranks last or second to last in almost every statistical category. They’ve lost all three of their games by double digits, so this is very much a fade against a team that shouldn’t be favored over anybody right now. QB Sam Darnold threw TWO ‘pick-sixes’ last week at Indianapolis. Again, I disagree with the line move. 8* Denver |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (8:20 ET): Over its last five games, Kansas City has found itself down by double digits four times. Remarkably, they have won all five of those games, including the Super Bowl. They’ve even covered the spread in all but one, that being last week’s 23-20 OT win over the Chargers. That win required not one but TWO 58-yard field goals from Harrison Butker. But, as mentioned above, the Chiefs’ ATS win streak (which had been at 10 straight) did end. Now it’s time for their 11-game SU win streak to end as well. Baltimore has won its last 14 regular season games. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 4 of last season when they lost at home (to Cleveland!) to find the last regular season loss. The Ravens have been more impressive than the Chiefs in the first two games, dominating the Browns and Texans by an average of 24.5 PPG. They easily covered the spread in both games while also winning the total yardage battle. Something else that’s worth noting is Kansas City is being outgained on a yards per play basis this year. The Ravens are at home, laying a short number, thus I’ve got to take them no matter the opponent. Kansas City has been great in the past as an underdog w/ Mahomes as QB, but they’ve also never had to face an opponent that’s this good. Don’t forget that while KC won the Super Bowl, Baltimore was the more impressive team in the regular season last year. The Ravens are 16-8 ATS all-time on MNF. They have lost to the Chiefs each of the L2 years (and are 0-3 against them since ‘15), so don’t discount the “revenge factor” either. 8* Baltimore |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 55 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
8* Under Chiefs/Ravens (8:20 ET): This number is predictably high as you’ve got two of the great offenses in this league. But be aware that it’s also the highest O/U line for any Ravens game in HISTORY! Neither of Baltimore’s previous two efforts would have gone Over this number. In fact, neither did Kansas City’s. While neither defense has faced an offense like the one they’ll see tonight, both did excellent jobs containing DeShaun Watson. The Ravens and Chiefs combined to allow just 18 PPG in their respective wins over the Texans this season. Kansas City scored just nine points in the first half last week and had only 17 before a game-tying FG as time expired in regulation. So they can be slowed down. The Chargers gave Patrick Mahomes a MUCH different look defensively than they had the previous season and I expect the Ravens to do something similar tonight. These teams have met each of the last two seasons. While Baltimore is 0-2, my guess is they’ll be better prepared for Mahomes this time around. The Ravens did score 33 last week, but they had a defensive touchdown. I am counting more on the defense to carry them to victory tonight. That may sound crazy with all the focus (rightly) on the QB matchup of Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson. But I think the success that the Ravens will have in this game, at least offensively, will be on the ground. That should chew up some clock. Jackson didn’t even throw for 200 yards last week! Both teams’ Overs this season were by half a point. KC is 4-0 Under its L4 road games. 8* Under Chiefs/Ravens |
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09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints UNDER 53 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
9* Under Packers/Saints (8:20 ET): Both the Packers and Saints are 2 for 2 on the Over, so it’s not a surprise that the total is pretty high Sunday night. However, despite averaging nearly 30 PPG thus far, not all is well in New Orleans. HC Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees were both highly critical of their respective performances in Week 1 (even though they won) and then last Monday saw them lose out in Las Vegas as they could muster only 7 points in the second half. There are now legit questions concerning Brees’ arm strength. Green Bay has put up 43 and 42 points in wins over the Lions and Vikings thus far. Aaron Rodgers has certainly looked like his old self, however there could be an issue tonight as WR Devante Adams is questionable and labeled a “game-time decision.” Adams is one of the top wideouts in the league and while Rodgers has a 6-0 TD-INT ratio thus far, the receiving corps beyond Adams isn’t great and drops far too many passes. Also, the Saints defense that Rodgers will be facing here is far superior to that of the Lions and Vikings, two teams that are a combined 0-4 thus far and total messes. Brees will be without his top receiver as well in Michael Thomas, who led the league in catches last season. So far, New Orleans ranks just 21st in total offense. They gained less than 300 total yards vs. Tampa Bay in the season opener, then last week were nearly held scoreless after halftime. Take away the 17 pts the Saints had off turnovers in Week 1 and they are averaging just 20.5 PPG. But I think their defense, which was one of the league’s best in 2019, will step up tonight. The Under is 5-2 in GB’s L7 as a road underdog. 9* Under Packers/Saints |
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09-27-20 | Bucs v. Broncos +6.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
8* Denver (4:25 ET): This is the game this week where my power rankings differ the most from the actual game line. Now my power rankings obviously don’t know about Denver’s injury situation, the most notable being at QB, but still I believe they’ve been “downgraded” too much for this week’s tilt vs. Tampa Bay. The Broncos are actually 2-0 ATS so far having lost by a total of just seven points to the Titans and Steelers, two teams that are a combined 4-0 SU. Even with Tom Brady, the Bucs haven’t been impressive enough to justify being in this kind of price range on the road. Take the points. Because of Brady, the Buccaneers came into 2020 with very high expectations. Some might even say unreasonable expectations. They’re likely to be favored in as many 13 games, which is crazy for a team that won just 7 games LY and has a 40+ year old starting QB. While they did win last week, that was at home vs. Carolina, who is one of the worst teams in the league. While they played the Saints tough in New Orleans, they still lost by double digits and keep in mind that the Saints just lost to the Raiders Monday night. Tampa Bay was actually outgained by Carolina LW, 427-339. They were fortunate to force four turnovers. But concerning is the fact that Brady seems to have inherited former QB James Winston’s turnover bug. The Bucs have five of those in two games. Over the L18 games, the Broncos have gone 11-7 ATS and that includes 6-5 when Drew Lock is NOT the starting QB. Jeff Driskell will start in Week 3 and he very nearly led a come from behind victory at Pittsburgh last week. Brady is just 2-4 ATS L6 tries as a road favorite of 6+ points. 8* Denver |
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09-27-20 | Cowboys v. Seahawks UNDER 57.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
10* Under Cowboys/Seahawks (4:25 ET): Everyone will be expecting fireworks in “America’s Game of the Week,” but I think Cowboys/Seahawks will find a way to stay Under the total. This is a really high number, the likes of which you rarely see, especially this early in the season. While both teams were involved in shootouts last week - and Seattle has scored 73 points in two games behind leading MVP candidate Russell Wilson - I just don’t think the number should be quite this high. Take the Under. Dallas pulled off an all-time comeback last week against Atlanta, rallying from 12 points back in the final eight minutes to stun the Falcons 40-39. Dak Prescott threw for 450 yards, but that was against an awful defense. It should be pointed out that the reason the Cowboys were in such a large, early hole was turnovers. Three of Atlanta’s first four scores came off turnovers and five and they had four scoring drives of 31 yds or less. All told, the Cowboys defense wasn’t bad despite giving up 39 points. They allowed only 20 in Week 1, but of course Dallas lost that game because the offense wasn’t nearly as effective against the Rams as it was vs. Atlanta. That may have something to do with the fact the Cowboys always tend to struggle offensively on the road. Seattle had no problems beating Atlanta in Week 1 and that was on the road whereas Dallas got the Falcons at home. But it was a close one last week for the Seahawks as they outlasted the Patriots 35-30. Wilson now has the league’s highest completion rate EVER through two weeks. But he can’t keep completing 82% of his passes and for whatever reason he tends to struggle vs. the Cowboys, averaging only 154 yards passing in five games. The Under is 29-14 in Dallas’ L43 road games including 9-3 the L12 where they were an underdog. 10* Under Cowboys/Seahawks |
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09-27-20 | 49ers v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 36-9 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Who would have thought that without both Saquon Barkley (out for year) and Sterling Shepard it would be the Giants dealing with LESS issues on the injury front? The 49ers come into Week 3 as banged up as any team I can ever recall. They will be without their two top running backs, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, their top three defensive players (Bosa, Thomas, Sherman) and top pass catcher. It will be Nick Mullens starting Sunday as the team plays for the second straight week at Giants Stadium. Last week, the 49ers still managed to down the Jets 31-13. But that’s arguably the worst team in football they were up against and they already had the lead when the injuries began to pile up. In fact, they scored a TD on their first offensive play from scrimmage. They can’t count on doing so again here as the Giants defense has played much better than expected, giving up only 43 total pts in two games including only 10 in the second half. Even w/o Barkley, they very nearly came from behind to defeat Chicago on the road last week, a game where they allowed just 304 total yards. Even with a poor ATS history as a home dog of 7 points or less, I see the Giants potentially pulling the outright upset here. The 49ers did stay out East all week, but even under a normal circumstance this is a tough spot. That they lost so many players last week only compounds matters. Facing a 49ers’ defense that is a shell of its former self, I expect Giants QB Daniel Jones and the rest of the offense to have a surprisingly good day. The 49ers were likely to regress this season anyway; the injuries pretty much confirm that. 8* NY Giants |
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09-27-20 | Texans +4.5 v. Steelers | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:00 ET): Don’t blame the Texans too much for being 0-2; all they’ve had to do so far is face the Chiefs and the Ravens. Those are the two best teams in the AFC, if not the entire NFL. The task is only slightly less formidable in Week 3 when they travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. The Steelers, like those other teams, are also 2-0. But last week at home they only barely survived a Broncos team with Jeff Driskell at QB. This line has come down for a reason and I smell upset. Believe it or not, but Houston actually outgained KC and Baltimore on a per play basis. Being -3 in TO margin to those two means trouble though and that’s what Houston was. This was a team that started 0-3 SU in 2018 and still found a way to make the playoffs. They also made the playoffs after an 0-2 start in 2015. So they won’t be hanging their heads yet. ''That's all we can do is just put our head down and grind,'' DeShaun Watson said. ''Just work and try to do what we do and see what the outcome comes like. Of course, we don't want to be 0-3, but that's not the main thing that's on our minds right now.'' Houston still has Watson at QB and he’s far better than any QB the Steelers have faced thus far. I look for Watson to have a big game here and for WR Will Fuller to bounce back here after being held w/o a catch by Baltimore. The Texans are 8-1 ATS their last nine tries off a DD loss at home. Again, Pittsburgh needed to make a late stop LW vs. Denver, up 26-21, to preserve the win against a team playing w/ a backup QB in an emergency situation. The Black & Gold has covered just two of the last eight times it’s been a home favorite. 8* Houston |
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09-26-20 | Troy +14.5 v. BYU | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
8* Troy (10:15 ET): Finally, a chance to win late night on College Football Saturday! Both Troy and BYU enter this second game of the season off blowout victories. BYU’s came all the way back on September 7th when they humiliated Navy 55-3 in Annapolis. Troy also went on the road for its opener and they came away with a 47-14 win over Middle Tennessee. That one made me happy as I laid the modest spread with the Trojans. Now that they’re underdogs here, by two touchdowns, I like them even more! The fact BYU has been off for 19 days is a disadvantage in my book. The reason for the long layoff should be obvious as the Cougars were yet another team dealing with COVID-19. As many as 10 players tested positive while 22 had to go into quarantine. This obviously creates an issue for practicing as some had to be cancelled while others saw players broken up into small groups of 10. As impressive as the win over Navy was, BYU can’t possibly duplicate that kind of performance under the current circumstances. Another bad sign is the fact BYU is just 1-7 ATS the last eight times it has been favored. Troy looked even better than expected against Middle Tennessee, doubling the opposition in total yardage. As noted in last week’s analysis, the Trojans were a lot better LY than their 5-7 SU record would seem to indicate. All five wins were by at least three touchdowns while three of the seven losses were one-score games. The only teams they struggled against were Missouri (SEC team) and then the two that played for the SBC Title (App State, Louisiana). QB Gunnar Watson has his top SEVEN pass catchers back from 2019 and this offense was actually 18th in the country at 458 YPG last season. 8* Troy |
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09-26-20 | Kansas v. Baylor -17.5 | Top | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
9* Baylor (7:30 ET): The previous two years saw Baylor improve it’s win total from 1 to 7 to 11. That was a remarkable coaching effort from Matt Rhule, which is why he’s now in the NFL The Dave Aranda era is now set to begin in Waco and the former Wisconsin & LSU defensive coordinator inherits a squad that virtually everyone believes will regress in 2020. Fortunately for Aranda, he’s opening up against Kansas, the bottom-feeder of the Big 12 that just lost at home to Coastal Carolina (by 15 pts!) two weeks ago. Baylor has beaten Kansas 10 straight times, averaging 576.7 YPG in the process. Last year, it was 61-6 in Lawrence and Bears were “only” a 14-point favorite in that one, if you can believe it. While there are a lot of unknowns right now with this team, what we do know is that Kansas remains very bad. The Jayhawks were -3 in turnovers vs. Coastal Carolina, but what you really need to know is they were down 28-0 (at home) in the final minute of the first half! Over the L10 years, KU is just 6-83 SU in conference play, never winning more than one game in any season. This is Baylor’s third attempt at starting their season. COVID-19 has gotten in the way both times so far, but Aranda said four days ago that those issues were behind the team. The Bears really could not have asked for a better opponent. Maybe it’s the fact they’ve had to postpone twice, or the unknown factor of a new coaching staff, but this line opened WAY too low IMO. That it’s actually been bet DOWN is pure lunacy as Kansas isn’t going to win a conference game all season. 9* Baylor |
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09-26-20 | Duke +4.5 v. Virginia | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
8* Duke (4:00 ET): The Blue Devils are 0-2, but that’s actually quite understandable. They opened the season at Notre Dame, whom they played tough in a 27-13 loss (was 17-13 heading into the 4Q). Last week’s 26-6 home loss to Boston College looks bad, and I was certainly glad it happened (as I had B.C.), but that result can directly be attributed to the fact Duke turned the ball over FIVE times. Total yardage was basically even. Four of the five turnovers took place in the red zone where the Blue Devils have now scored just one TD in seven trips this season! Having not played a game yet, Virginia is a bit of an “unknown” coming into this afternoon. But what we do know is they’ll definitely miss QB Bryce Perkins, who graduated and was essentially the Hoos’ entire offense last season. You have to think that UVA is at a severe disadvantage here facing a team that’s already played twice, even if the game is at home and they are 5-0 SU/ATS the L5 seasons vs. the Blue Devils. That recent head to head record and what has transpired the L2 wks will certainly have Duke motivated this week. Under HC David Cutcliffe, this team has been tremendous as an underdog, going 11-5 ATS L16 tries. All those turnovers last week couldn’t have happened at a worse time as they turned what could have been a SU win into a 20-point loss. The defensive front has looked good in both games against superior O-lines than what they’ll see here. 8* Duke |
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09-26-20 | Texas -17.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 63-56 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
10* Texas (3:30 ET): While they were ultimately victorious, Texas Tech’s performance in the season opener could hardly be called “good.” They gave up 600 yards to Houston Baptist, which is a FCS school and not a very good one at that. Even more frightening is that the Red Raiders needed to prevent a 2-pt conversion w/ 3:23 left to hold on for the 35-33 victory. Now, the Lubbock faithful will point to the fact that over a dozen players missed the game due to COVID-19. Still, I don’t think that excuses the poor performance. There was nothing poor about the way Texas opened its season. In what HC Tom Herman called a “scrimmage,” the Longhorns blasted UTEP 59-3 as a 45-point favorite. QB Sam Ehlinger threw for 426 yards and five touchdowns -- in the first half! Texas, now ranked 8th in the country, had nearly 700 yards of total offense and didn’t even try in the second half. You can imagine how they have to be licking their chops going against a defense that just gave up 600 yards to a FCS school. Texas is already 8-2 ATS the L10 meetings vs. TT. Last year’s matchup in Austin saw the Horns win 49-24 as a nine-point favorite. They are an even stronger team in 2020, thus it’s not surprising to see the line significantly higher even though this game is being played on the road. The last two times they’ve played, Texas has scored a total of 90 points on Texas Tech. I’ve got this line right around 24 points, so even after the line move we’re still getting plenty of value. This is a really good team that should be able to “name the score” Saturday afternoon. 10* Texas |
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09-26-20 | West Virginia +6.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (3:30 ET): I’m proud to say I was a little “ahead of the curve” when it came to fading Oklahoma State, having already done so last week when they could barely beat Tulsa. Now losing QB Spencer Sanders to injury early on didn’t help. But the fact the Pokes needed to outscore the Golden Hurricane 13-0 in the 4Q last week, just to get a SU win, doesn’t bode well as they are set to begin conference play. Sanders could return here, despite being in a walking boot earlier this week, but clearly wouldn’t be at full strength. With the Sanders injury, WVU has to smell “blood in the water.” The Mountaineers were 56-10 winners in their opener (vs. FCS Eastern Kentucky) and have had two weeks to prepare for this game. It’s a matchup they’ve likely had “circled” in Morgantown for awhile. Including LY’s 20-13 loss, WVU has lost five in a row to the Cowboys, also going 0-4-1 ATS. But three of those losses were by seven points or less. The Mountaineers are undeniably better in HC Neal Brown’s 2nd season. Oklahoma State won last week because its defense was able to limit Tulsa to 278 total yards and 0 for 12 on third down. As you might suspect, WVU has a much more prolific offense than Tulsa. Keep in mind that Tulsa was dealing with several key absences last week themselves, most notably at the RB position. The fact OSU has four new starters on the offensive line this year is a big deal. WVU’s defensive front should be able to take full advantage of that. Big statement game for the underdog. 8* West Virginia |
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09-26-20 | Tulane -3 v. Southern Miss | Top | 66-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
8* Tulane (2:30 ET): Two games in and it would be fair to say Tulane’s season has been defined by “comebacks.” One went their way, a 27-24 win over South Alabama in the opener where the Green Wave battled back from an early 24-6 deficit. But then last week saw them lose by the same 27-24 score to Navy after blowing their own 24-0 lead. There’s basically two ways this next game can go for Willie Fritz’s team: either there’s a hangover or they come out extra motivated. I’m betting on the latter. Southern Mississippi’s season also started in Mobile against South Alabama. Only they lost outright, as a 12-point favorite, 32-21. Following that loss, (now former) HC Jay Hopson abruptly resigned! Talk about an auspicious way to start your season! Co-OC Scott Walden is now the interim coach in Hattiesburg and I told you that he was stepping into a near-impossible situation vs. Louisiana Tech. Somehow, the Golden Eagles were still favored to win, so I faded and sure enough La Tech pulled the outright upset with the go-ahead TD in the final minute. Oddsmakers have at least “learned their lesson” w/ USM this week by not favoring them. But still, this line ought to be closer to a full TD. Having started 0-2 and unexpectedly losing their HC, the Golden Eagles remain in a very fragile position. While this is USM’s third straight home game and Tulane hasn’t been that great on the road, note South Alabama came here and won when they hadn’t previously beaten a FBS team on the road since 2017! Tulane also holds a convincing 30-13 win over Southern Miss in LY’s Armed Forces Bowl. 8* Tulane |
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09-26-20 | Iowa State v. TCU +2.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
8* TCU (1:30 ET): TCU’s season was supposed to begin on September 11th against SMU, but that had to be scrapped because of positive coronavirus tests. Instead, they’ll now open the season with a game against Big XII rival Iowa State. This is a big revenge spot for the Horned Frogs, who lost 49-24 in Ames last season. That was with ISU getting a big game from its QB Brock Purdy and TCU being in the midst of a down season. The Horned Frogs project to be a lot better this year and now the game is in Fort Worth. Iowa State already played a game and it didn’t go as planned. Coming in as the #23 ranked team in the country, they lost at home to Louisiana (who is now #19 in the country), 31-14 as 13-pt favorites. It’s not that the Cyclones were beaten that badly ‘in the boxscore.’ (They actually outgained LA 303-272). But two turnovers really hurt and Purdy had a shockingly poor game with just 180 total yards (35 rushing). He completed less than 50% of his pass attempts. ISU is now 0-5-1 ATS its L6 games as a favorite. TCU was just 5-7 SU last season and lost six of its final eight games. It was their worst season (record-wise) since 2013 (went 4-8 SU). They bounced back the next year to go 12-1 SU! HC Gary Patterson typically does a very good job and while he’s got a bit of a question mark at QB right now (both Downing and Duggan expected to play), he’s got a defense that should certainly overwhelm the ISU receivers like Louisiana did (if not more so!). TCU has not lost at home to Iowa State since 2012. Take the points. 8* TCU |
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09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. UTSA | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
10* Middle Tennessee (8:00 ET): So much for being improved! Middle Tennessee has been a disaster in the early going, getting outscored 89-14 in lopsided losses to Army (42-0) and Troy (47-14). Despite the fact I faded the Blue Raiders in that loss to Troy last week, it was shocking to see how poorly they played. Three turnovers (following four more vs. Army) and QB Asher O’Hara (3,600 total yds & 29 TDs LY) was actually benched. But as bad as things have been thus far in Murfreesboro, I can’t believe MTSU is getting this many points against UTSA. This is the most unique C-USA opener in history. Originally, UTSA was going to face Memphis. But the Tigers had to bow out due to a COVID-19 outbreak. That left an open spot on the schedule and MTSU stepped in. This change was made just last week, giving both sides very little time to prepare for an opponent they are not that familiar with, despite being conference rivals. There have been only two all-time meetings, the most recent taking place in 2016. The fact MTSU HC Rick Stockstill is being coy about his QB situation puts UTSA in a tough spot, especially laying points. UTSA might be 2-0, but they’ve beaten a terrible Texas State team (in double overtime) and then SF Austin (a FCS school). As bad as MTSU has looked through two games, they are still the toughest opponent UTSA has faced so far. The Blue Raiders are also desperate, which has me grabbing the points. UTSA infamously almost gave away a 31-14 lead to Texas State in the opener. I had them as they were getting 6.5 points. But now they are favored in a FBS game for just the 1st time since 2018. They are 0-4-1 ATS L5 as a favorite (vs. FBS) and are just 4-13-1 ATS L18 home games. 10* Middle Tennessee |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars -2.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -126 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): So much for “tanking.” The Jaguars have been far more competitive than was expected the first two weeks, knocking off Indianapolis here at home and then nearly upsetting Tennessee on the road. That 2-0 ATS start has them favored at home on a short week and honestly this is probably one of the few instances we’d ever consider laying points with the Jags. Miami, who ironically overachieved LY in what was supposed to be a “tanking” season, has looked poor in the first two games, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Some felt Miami was going to be able to contend in the AFC East this season. I did not. Two weeks in and their fans are already calling for Tua! Losses to the Patriots and Bills have been a “cold dose of reality” as both contests saw the Dolphins play from behind the whole way. The defense was atrocious last week as it allowed Buffalo to gain 8.9 yards per play! That’s good news for Jags QB Gardner Minshew II, who has been surprisingly efficient so far in completing over 75% of his passes. The Dolphins’ pass defense is at the bottom of the league right now. Jacksonville is 4-0 ATS in Thursday night home games. They could easily be 2-0 heading into this game, but missed an XP early in the 4Q LW at Tennessee and then gave up the GW FG in the final two minutes. Special teams play wasn’t good either and the defense didn’t create much pressure. But despite losing, the Jags outgained the Titans 480-354. I can’t see the Dolphins correcting their issues on a short week, playing on the road. 10* Jacksonville |
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09-24-20 | UAB -6.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
10* UAB (7:30 ET): These teams are no strangers to playing on Thursday night. South Alabama opened its season on a Thursday with a 32-21 upset over Southern Miss as 12-point underdogs (Southern Miss’ coach then resigned). A week later, it was UAB’s turn to play on a Thursday and they lost 31-14 down in Miami. Considering who the opponent was, the Blazers need not hang their heads in shame over that result. While they are 0-2 ATS (also failed to cover in a win over Central Arkansas) and South Alabama is 2-0 ATS (almost upset Tulane in Week 2), this matchup favors the road team and I’ll lay the points in this one. The last 3+ seasons have seen UAB win a total of 28 games and make B2B C-USA Title Game appearances. Keep in mind the program ceased to exist for the two years prior! HC Bill Clark has done a remarkable job here, considering that circumstance, and has one of the most experienced teams in the country in 2020. The 45-35 win over Central Arkansas was not as close as the final score indicates as the Blazers turned it over three times, but still had a 459-238 total yardage advantage. Two Central Arkansas’ TD drives were 15 yards or less and they had a defensive score as well. The Miami loss was simply a case of running into a better football team. South Alabama is the kind of opponent UAB typically feasts on. The Jaguars won only TWO games LY. UAB is 4-1 ATS off a bye week as well as 18-3 SU (14-7 ATS) its L21 games as a favorite. They’ve also covered five of six against Sun Belt teams. While UAB did lose starting QB Tyler Johnston III to an injury (non-throwing shoulder), thankfully backup Bryson Lucero has seen action in both games thus far and is actually averaging more yards per attempt than Johnston was. South Alabama’s passing game - also using 2 different QB’s - has been effective thus far. But the UAB defense has yet to allow a 200+ yd passing day this season. South Alabama struggles to run the ball (3.4 YPC) and that will cost them here. 10* UAB |
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09-20-20 | Lions +7 v. Packers | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -140 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
10* Detroit (1:00 ET): “The Lions should have won last week” is something Lions fans are probably sick of hearing at this point. However, last week may have taken the cake. Since 2006, NFL teams with a 17+ point lead entering the 4Q were 779-2 SU. That record is now 779-3 SU after the Lions inexplicably gave up three touchdowns to Mitch Trubisky (who had been playing HORRIBLE up to that point) last week. That 27-23 loss marked Detroit’s 11th when leading in the 4Q under Matt Patricia, who started here in 2018. It was their 10th loss in a row overall and they are just 1-9 SU L10 games decided by 8 pts or less. Last year’s two meetings between the Packers & Lions pretty much encapsulated the two seasons. Consider that GB never led in regulation in either game. Yet they won both by kicking GW field goals as time expired. Per Elias, it was just the second time EVER a team swept a season series in which it never held a lead in regulation (the other was in 1977). The Packers were an extremely fraudulent 13-3 SU team a year ago as they went 9-1 SU In games decided by 8 pts or less and only outscored opponents by 63 points. For comparison, the 10-6 Vikings had a +104 point differential LY. This is clearly a contrarian play as much is being made over the Lions injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Aaron Rodgers had a big game last week in Minnesota, but for some reason always has his share of problems with the Lions. Including LY’s two miraculous escapes, the Packers are 0-6 ATS the L3 years vs. Detroit and just 2-4 SU. Given how lopsided public betting figures to be on this game, it’s interesting the number hasn’t moved. Given that they allowed 7.8 yards per play last week (league-high) to Minnesota, maybe it's the Packers defense that everyone needs to be concerned about. Take the points. 10* Detroit |
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09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 39-40 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
10* Dallas (1:00 ET): I’ve watched as this line has been bet down all week and decided now is the time to act. I just can’t see the Cowboys, a team I project to finish near the top of the NFC, starting 0-2. I will caution you not to put much stock inthe fact Atlanta gained 500+ yards against Seattle last week. They trailed most of the way and ran a TON of plays. The Falcons also don’t have the same caliber of defense as the Rams, who were able to hold Dallas to 17 points last week. The line move is an overreaction to America’s Team losing a national TV game where they were favored. Lay the points. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott should have a big game Sunday. Last week, Russell Wilson completed 31 of 35 pass attempts against this Falcons’ defense for 322 yards and four touchdowns. Cornerback is an issue for Atlanta and that’s a problem when facing a Dallas offense that may have the best group of starting WR’s in the league. The “success” this Atlanta defense had in the 2nd half of last season may have saved HC Dan Quinn’s job, but it was artificial, built on facing mostly weak offenses. While it is true Atlanta has covered each of its last four road games (were at home LW), it is also true that they were just 4-16 ATS in the 20 previous road games. Dallas has covered three consecutive home openers and this line should be at where it opened. There will be fans present. The Cowboys are a much better team than the Falcons and that should be obvious by the time this one is over. 10* Dallas |
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09-19-20 | Miami-FL v. Louisville UNDER 65 | Top | 47-34 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 24 m | Show |
10* Under Miami/Louisville (7:30 ET): The season’s 1st matchup of ranked teams takes place in Louisville where the #18 ranked Cardinals host #17 ranked Miami. As was made fairly clear w/ last week’s fade on L’ville, I’m not as high on Scott Satterfield’s team as the market seems to be. But at the same time, it’s hard for me to trust Miami in this spot as they are just 3-23 SU in their L26 away games vs. ranked opponents. But what I do trust are the respective defenses and the fact this O/U line has been bet too high. Take the Under. Miami & Louisville combined for “only” 66 points last week. I say “only” because each was facing a C-USA defense. Miami beat a good UAB team 31-14 while Louisville won 35-21 over Western Kentucky. While Miami’s game did stay Under, L’ville’s did not. But L’ville would have stayed Under had it not been for them giving WKU the ball inside the 5-yard line to start BOTH halves. Take those “drives” away and the Louisville defense allowed just 7 points on a TD that came near the end of the game. They allowed only 248 total yards as well and had 10 tackles for loss, plus three sacks. There have been 65+ points scored in only TWO of Miami’s last 23 games. One of them was against Louisville last year, a 52-27 whipping down in Coral Gables that isn’t about to be repeated as this one is one the road. Even though the ‘Canes’ QB situation has received a major upgrade this season, D’Eriq King threw for just 144 yds last week vs. UAB.. At the same time, Miami’s defense is a lot better than what Louisville faced last week. The Under is 6-0 the L6 times “The U” has been a road underdog. 10* Under Miami/Louisville |
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09-19-20 | Louisiana Tech +5.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 47 h 14 m | Show |
8* Louisiana Tech (7:30 ET): Southern Miss’ opening week loss to South Alabama was considered so bad that HC Jay Hopson ended up resigning! While Hopson openly clashed with the university president over a variety of issues during his tenure, the 32-21 loss to start the season was apparently the straw that broke the camel’s back. Consider that the Golden Eagles were 12-point favorites in that game and South Alabama hadn’t won on the road since 2017. I’m a little shocked that USM opened as the favorite this week, let alone has been bet up! The new man in charge in Hattiesburg is Scotty Walden, who is only 30 years old and served as the co-OC under Hopson. While Walden is considered a bright young offensive mind, this is hardly the way one would hope to make their head coaching debut at the FBS level. It’s not like Southern Miss has been a bad team (they had 4 straight winning seasons under Hopson), but a bad home loss to a team like South Alabama followed by a coaching change this early in the season is ominous. Louisiana Tech has yet to take the field in 2020, but given all the turmoil their opponent has already endured, I don’t think the Bulldogs are at any sort of disadvantage here. Skip Holtz led this team to 10 wins last season and with the state of the USM program, right now the C-USA West Division is really up for grabs. While only eight starters are back in Ruston, Southern Miss looked VERY weak in the trenches against South Alabama. After losing to the Golden Eagles in OT back in 2017, then by one point in 2018, it was all LT LY in Ruston, 45-30. Don’t think for a second Holtz isn’t motivated by the idea of beating USM B2B years for the 1st time since 2013-14. Take the points. 8* Louisiana Tech |
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09-19-20 | SMU v. North Texas +14 | Top | 65-35 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 39 m | Show |
8* North Texas (6:00 ET): SMU failed to cover in its opener two weeks ago at Texas State. The Mustangs managed to win by only a 31-24 margin and were favored by 24.5 points. I was more than happy with that result having taken the Under, which cashed with PLENTY of room to spare. Now for the second straight time the Ponies hit the road, albeit this time for an even shorter in-state trip as they will stay within the Metroplex to face North Texas, who crushed its first opponents - FCS Houston Baptist by a score of 57-31. Though the win came over a lesser opponent, North Texas should be proud of how they played in the opener. The offense rolled up a school record 721 total yards and 11 different receivers caught a pass. They ran 86 plays! Getting this game in Denton is huge for the Mean Green, not only because they’ve lost 10 straight times away from Apogee Stadium, but also due to the fact the home team is on an 6-1 SU run in this rivalry (nicknamed “The Safeway Bowl.”) UNT has legit revenge for a 22-point loss in Dallas LY. SMU has already proven itself unworthy of laying a lot of points on the road. Facing a tougher test this week, I expect them to once again struggle to grind out a SU win. In my analysis of the Texas State game, I mentioned that - even w/ QB Buechele back - you should look for SMU’s scoring average to DROP from LY’s 41.8. That’s because the top two running backs both graduated. The Mustangs have failed to cover five straight road games, so laying double digits is clearly a BAD idea here. Take the points. 8* North Texas |
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09-19-20 | Troy -3 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 47-14 | Win | 100 | 43 h 6 m | Show |
8* Troy (4:00 ET): Middle Tennessee was humiliated in its opener two weeks ago, losing to Army 42-0. While four turnovers certainly didn’t help, it was clear from the outset that the Blue Raiders were outclassed up in West Point as they found themselves outgained 368-184 for the game. For a MTSU team that fancies itself as “improved” coming into 2020, that was obviously NOT the way it wanted to start the season. Things get no easier this week with a visit from Troy, who is also looking to improve after a disappointing season. Troy had won 10 or more games three straight years going into 2019. But Neal Brown left for WVU and Chip Lindsey’s first year on the job didn’t go as well as he’d hoped. The Trojans finished 5-7 SU, their first losing season since 2015. Interesting though is that all five wins LY came by 21 or more points. Three of the seven losses came in one score games while three others were to either Missouri or teams that played for the Sun Belt Championship (App State and Louisiana). I say that if you’re looking for either Middle Tenn or Troy to improve this year, look more so to the latter. These programs have not met in the eight years since MTSU left the Sun Belt. They’ll meet twice this season though, a result of the reality we are currently living in. I look for Troy’s offense to have a big day, led by soph QB Gunnar Watson, who has his SEVEN top pass catchers back from a year ago. While MTSU struggled to defend the run last week, it’s not like they are likely to do any better against the pass w/ just three starters back from a year ago. Troy’s offense averaged 458 YPG last year, which was 18th best in the country! The Trojans are 9-3 ATS their L12 games as a road favorite. 8* Troy |
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09-19-20 | Boston College +6 v. Duke | Top | 26-6 | Win | 100 | 39 h 41 m | Show |
10* Boston College (12:00 ET): Duke certainly made a decent accounting of itself last weekend in South Bend. Coming in as a three TD underdog, the Blue Devils only lost by 14 to Notre Dame and it was even closer entering the 4Q when they were down just four. While a noble effort, I’m not sure that I’m willing to call Duke “underrated” at this point. In fact, it might be quite the opposite as ND might simply be “overrated” as are the Blue Devils this week as they are laying too many points here to Boston College. The primary issue for Duke this week is going from the “hunter” to the “hunted.” While very good as an underdog under HC David Cutcliffe, the Blue Devils’ record as a favorite is shaky. They’ve covered just 4 of the last 14 chances laying points and have lost outright six of the last nine. Preparation is another issue this week as BC has a 1st year HC and QB. Note that while the Blue Devils did hang tough with Notre Dame last week, they were still outgained 441-332 and averaged just 2.4 yards per rush. While Duke is coming off a high-profile loss, Boston College has had its full attention on its season opener. This is the latest any BC season has begun since 1981. The Blue Devils were NOT an originally scheduled opponent, but plans obviously had to be changed this year. Jeff Hafley takes over in Chestnut Hill, replacing Steve Addazio, who did not leave the cupboard bare. The Eagles have a stellar offensive line (maybe the ACC’s best?) and QB Phil Jurkovec (a transfer from Notre Dame) seems ready to seize the reins. Keep this in mind: BC is on an 8-4 ATS run as an underdog, including 7-1 when getting between 3.5 and 10 points. 10* Boston College |
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09-19-20 | Tulsa +24 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 7-16 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
8* Tulsa (12:00 ET): Oklahoma State comes into 2020 with plenty of fanfare as the Pokes are ranked #11 in the country. Originally set for last week, this game w/ Tulsa had to be pushed back to COVID-19 concerns on the Golden Hurricane’s end. But OSU still had to enjoy its Saturday as a number of their Big 12 rivals (such as Iowa State) lost to unranked foes. Of course, that’s precisely the situation the Cowboys find themselves in and I think this is too many points to lay to a motivated, in-state rival. Tulsa won only 4 games LY, but was more competitive than that record suggests. They actually outgained their AAC foes (by 45 YPG) despite going only 2-6 SU in conference play. They had two players chosen in the NFL Draft, so there was some talent. There still is, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The L3 years have seen the Golden Hurricane held under 30 PPG, but with nine starters back for 2020, we could very well see them get back to the heights of 2015-16 (HC Montgomery’s first two years here) when they averaged a healthy 39.9 PPG. They have a senior QB in Zach Smith and a LOADED backfield as well. Of course, OK State has its own offensive firepower that will be on display. But with this being the ONLY non-conference game on the schedule, I don’t see the Cowboys being particularly motivated. They did beat Tulsa 40-21 last season (on the road), but that margin won’t cut it this time and the Golden Hurricane are a much stronger team this year as they head into Stillwater on Saturday. Though #11/#12 in the AP/Coaches Poll, OSU is just 17th in SP+ and I have Tulsa ranked even higher than their SP+ rating. 8* Tulsa |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 43.5 | Top | 30-35 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 3 m | Show |
10* Under Bengals/Browns (8:20 ET): It shouldn’t be all that surprising that this total is low. The two teams combined for a total of 19 points in Week 1, both losing in the process. Cleveland was blown out 38-6 in Baltimore while Cincinnati lost a close one (16-13) to the Chargers. We’ve got two former #1 overall draft choices starting at QB in this Thursday night matchup, including the most recent. While that sounds exciting, I saw some things in Week 1 that lead me to believe both Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow may continue to struggle here in 2020. Mayfield enters his third season in Cleveland with tempered expectations. He’s already on his third different head coach and third different playcaller since coming into the league. With COVID limiting offseason interaction, my guess is that it’s going to take awhile for Mayfield and 1st year Browns HC Kevin Stefanski to get on the same page. Mayfield didn’t look good from the outset last week, throwing an interception on the very first drive and finishing with only 189 yards despite being down virtually the entire game. The Browns averaged just 4.5 yards per play against the Ravens. Burrow only threw for 193 yards in his NFL debut and missed some throws. The Cincinnati offense averaged just 4.4 yards per play. For both Mayfield and Burrow, this second game being on a short week doesn’t help. The Under has hit in each of Cleveland’s last five Thursday night contests. The Under is also 8-2-1 in the Bengals’ last 11 road games. As far as the defenses are concerned, the Bengals only allowed 16 pts last week and the Browns weren’t as bad as you think despite giving up 38 points. Four of Baltimore’s six scoring drives started at midfield or closer. 10* Under Bengals/Browns |
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09-14-20 | Steelers v. Giants +7 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -138 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (7:15 ET): Pittsburgh is certainly being priced as a playoff team entering 2020. They have better than 50% odds at the books and should end up being favored in 9 or 10 games, barring significant injuries. Of course, speaking of significant injuries, the Steelers lost Ben Roethlisberger early last season and wound up getting 13 very subpar games at QB from the hideous combo of Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodgers. Big Ben is set to return for ‘20, but how likely is that he’ll be his old self? The Giants enter the year with very little expectations. They were 4-12 SU in 2019. QB Daniel Jones, who many questioned going so high in the draft, had a bit of a rough rookie campaign. The team was tied with the Chargers for worst TO margin in the league (-17). Jones lost 11 fumbles himself, but did throw a team rookie-record 24 TD passes. Saquon Barkley should no longer be limited by an ankle injury that slowed him down most of last season. I’m counting on Barkley to have a strong Week 1 performance here. This is a lot of points to lay, on the road, in Week 1. On Sunday, we saw two road favorites of a similar size - Philadelphia and Indianapolis both lose OUTRIGHT. I’m very much “playing against the line move” here as I’m not convinced Roethlisberger will be the “Big Ben of old” and the Giants should be more competitive for 1st year HC Joe Judge. The Steelers have struggled as road favorites under HC Mike Tomlin, going 2-5-1 ATS their L8 times, and they are also just 2-7 ATS L9 season openers. Take the points. 10* NY Giants |
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09-13-20 | Bucs v. Saints UNDER 48 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
8* Under Bucs/Saints (4:25 ET): America’s “Game of the Week” takes place in New Orleans and it’s the 1st EVER matchup (in league history!) of two 40+ year old QB’s. It’s two of the all-time greats with Tom Brady leading the Bucs (how weird does that sound?) and Drew Brees leading the Saints. In terms of how many points are going to be scored, the expectation is for a lot, given the offensive firepower that exists in both sides. Yet, despite that overwhelming sentiment (from bettors), the O/U line has come DOWN. This is a classic fade the public situation. It’s easy to understand why the public will love the Over in the situation. Both Tampa Bay-New Orleans meetings last season went Over, each seeing 50+ points scored. Now the Bucs add Brady to the mix. But expecting Brady to be the “Brady of old” after this unusual offseason, at least right off the bat, seems like wishful thinking. It seems like there’s a good chance Brady may be without top WR Mike Evans, which would be a huge loss for the Bucs. Bottom line: I don’t see TB moving up and down the field in this first game. We’ve also got two of the premier run defenses from a season ago. Tampa Bay’s defense was actually #1 in the league at stopping the run! New Orleans was #4. The Saints’ defense returns 10 of 11 starters from last year. The one new starter is Malcolm Jenkins, who makes the secondary demonstrably better. With all the focus being on Brady & Brees here, don’t be surprised if it's the respective defenses “stealing the headlines.” 8* Under Bucs/Saints |
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09-13-20 | Raiders v. Panthers +3 | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
10* Carolina (1:00 ET): Call me crazy, but I think Carolina is going to win more games than expected this season. That still might mean a last place finish in the NFC South, but new HC Matt Rhule has certainly inherited worse projects at Baylor and Temple than what he’s faced with now in the NFL. Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism would be QB Teddy Bridgewater, who is a remarkable 16-2 ATS in his career as an underdog, the best such record in the Super Bowl era. Bridgewater will be coached by not just Rhule, but also QB Coach Joe Brady, who engineered the record-setting LSU offense last season. While the Panthers return the fewest number of snaps from a year ago, Las Vegas is #2 in that department. I am not particularly high on the Raiders going into their first year in Sin City. This was a team that somehow won 7 games despite getting outscored by 106 points. This year, I am projecting them to finish LAST in the AFC West. Though it’s only Week 1, the Silver and Black have never fared well in these 1 PM ET kickoffs and I don’t suspect that’s about to change. The team is also 0-3-1 ATS its L4 times as a road favorite. If my belief that Carolina is going to win more games than expected holds, then this is precisely the kind of game they are likely to “steal.” The Raiders didn’t even average 20 PPG last season, the third year in a row that was the case, and will be starting two rookie receivers. Then you have the defense, which in three years under coordinator Paul Guenther has ranked 31st in points allowed and 32nd (last) in yards per play. That unit is breaking in five new starters. Even before factoring in any kind of homefield advantage here for the Panthers, I feel this line is too high. Take the points. 10* Carolina |
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09-13-20 | Bears v. Lions -2.5 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
10* Detroit (1:00 ET): Matt Patricia enters 2020 firmly on the hot seat in the Motor City. Fortunately for him, I project his Lions to improve upon LY’s 3-12-1 SU record quite a bit. It starts with better health, particularly at the QB position. In the eight games with Matt Stafford in the lineup, the Lions were pretty competitive (3-4-1). They were 0-8 without him, getting subpar QB play. This was a team that SHOULD have finished with a better record though; they led at the half six times. They were 3-8 SU in one-score games. The Lions’ pythagorean win differential last year was -2.9. That measures actual vs. expected wins, the latter based on point differential. Believe it or not, in a wide open NFC North, I can see the Lions going from worst to first! The division’s two playoff teams from last year - Green Bay and Minnesota - are both set to regress. Chicago, who is Detroit’s Week 1 opponent, is a bit of a “wild card.” Bears HC Matt Nagy surprised some by electing to start Mitchell Trubisky at QB here. The team ponied up big bucks to sign Nick Foles in the offseason. The Lions are 0-4 SU vs. the Bears the L2 years. All but one of those losses came by one score. But Chicago covered only one road game all season LY and is 0-6 ATS L6. This is only the 2nd time Detroit has been a division favorite under Patricia. Look for Stafford to air it out and justify the price range. 10* Detroit |
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09-12-20 | Western Kentucky +12.5 v. Louisville | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 38 m | Show |
10* Western Kentucky (8:00 ET): HC Scott Satterfield sort of walked into a great situation LY at Louisville. The Cardinals had won just 2 games the year prior, so the bar was low and it wouldn’t take much to improve. That said, Satterfield did a marvelous job as L’ville improved its win total by more than any other P5 team in the country (+6) and capped things off with a 38-28 win over Miss State in the Music City Bowl. But now come the weight of expectations and the Cardinals are opening the season as a DD favorite. The Cards were DD favorites just one time vs a FBS foe last season and it happened to be against the team they’ll face here, Western Kentucky. Despite losing that game 38-21, the Hilltoppers saw their own 6-game improvement in 2019, going from 3-9 SU to 9-4. They enter this season as one of the favorites to win C-USA’s East Division. I don’t see them getting much respect for this game though and think that’s a mistake. The Hilltoppers were a perfect 4-0 ATS as road dogs last season. There is a lot of fanfare over L’ville QB Micale Cunningham, who is a dual threat that should put up big numbers this season. But don’t look past this WKU offense. They return a veteran O-line and a stud RB in Gaej Walker. Plus, they are adding a grad transfer from Maryland, QB Tyrrell Pigrome, who is a dual threat himself. Look for Pigrome to become a better passer in this offense. His first game being against a defense that gave up 33 PPG and was 112th in YPP a year ago should help. Pigrome was Maryland’s QB in a 51-41 season opening upset of Texas a few years back. 10* Western Kentucky |
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09-12-20 | Clemson v. Wake Forest +34 | Top | 37-13 | Win | 100 | 48 h 28 m | Show |
8* Wake Forest (7:30 ET): Under Dabo Swinney, Clemson has become NCAAF “royalty,” winning two National Championships and 69 games in the L5 seasons. They’d won 29 straight before losing in LY’s National Title Game to LSU. The Tigers are again absolutely loaded entering 2020 as they have QB Trevor Lawrence back and figure to be DD favorites in every game with the exception of a trip to Notre Dame. But while they had no problem covering DD spreads last year (11-3 ATS in that role), I think this year could be a bit different. Wake Forest always seems to overachieve for HC Dave Clawson and last season was no different as the Demon Deacons won eight games on their way to the Pinstripe Bowl. They’ve now had a winning record each of the last four seasons. However, like most of the ACC, they’ve struggled against Clemson. The last two years have seen WF lose to the Tigers by a combined score of 115-6. It was 52-3 LY in Death Valley. Overall, it’s an 11-game losing streak to the Tigers. There will be no fans present Saturday night in Winston-Salem, but I still feel the number is too high for a season opener, even if it is Clemson with this much returning firepower. Wake Forest has a lot to replace on offense, but their defense is expected to be good with eight starters and the kicking game is sound as well. Wake Forest has virtually no shot at winning this game, but I like them getting the boatload of points in this most unusual of season openers. 8* Wake Forest |
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09-12-20 | UTSA +7 v. Texas State | Top | 51-48 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
10* UTSA (3:30 ET): Texas State already has a game under its belt and while it was a loss, things really went better than anticipated against heavily favored SMU. The Bobcats “only” lost 31-24, easily covering as 24.5-point home dogs. The game also stayed well Under the 71.5-point total, which I enjoyed as I had the Under. Despite the Under, Texas State still put up over 400 yds of total offense and averaged over 5.0 YPC on the ground. QB Brady McBride completed 21 of 39 pass attempts for 229 yards and 2 TDs. It was a really competitive game against a much better team. UTSA is dealing with some attrition entering the season opener. Eight players are going to miss this game due to COVID-19, which makes things tough for a new coach staff. But I still expect Jeff Traylor’s offense to move the ball in this one. Texas State gave up 544 yards last week to SMU and the Roadrunners have a RB in Sincere McCormick, who sent numerous school records as a freshman last season, including an 189-yd effort vs. UTEP. Traylor’s offenses always seem to feature a productive RB, so expect a big sophomore season from McCormick. Last year, the UTSA defense led C-USA in tackles for loss. In its last 26 games, Texas State has beaten just ONE FBS opponent by more than a touchdown. So while UTSA is dealing with the COVID issue, I believe they’ll at least hang tough. In fact, before factoring in homefield advantage, I’ve got the Roadrunners higher in my power ratings than Texas State. So being able to grab this many points seems like a luxury. Texas State is just 3-8 ATS its last 11 home games and was favored by a TD or more just once in that span. It was LY vs. South Alabama and they only 30-28. Take the points. 10* UTSA |
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Bryan Power Football Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-07-20 | Kansas v. Oklahoma UNDER 63.5 | Top | 9-62 | Loss | -109 | 115 h 19 m | Show |
11-07-20 | Nebraska +4 v. Northwestern | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers +7.5 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
11-05-20 | Utah State +17.5 v. Nevada | Top | 9-34 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
11-04-20 | Ohio v. Central Michigan | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 25 m | Show |
11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants UNDER 45 | Top | 25-23 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 40 m | Show |
11-01-20 | Cowboys +10 v. Eagles | Top | 9-23 | Loss | -120 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
11-01-20 | 49ers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-37 | Loss | -100 | 101 h 28 m | Show |
11-01-20 | Rams v. Dolphins +4 | Top | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 122 h 57 m | Show |
10-31-20 | Nevada v. UNLV +14 | Top | 37-19 | Loss | -107 | 38 h 35 m | Show |
10-31-20 | Western Kentucky +29.5 v. BYU | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
10-31-20 | Charlotte +10 v. Duke | Top | 19-53 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 57 m | Show |
10-31-20 | Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech UNDER 57.5 | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 100 h 36 m | Show |
10-31-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 51-0 | Win | 100 | 96 h 57 m | Show |
10-31-20 | Temple v. Tulane UNDER 60.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 96 h 56 m | Show |
10-30-20 | Minnesota v. Maryland +20 | Top | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 56 h 1 m | Show |
10-29-20 | Colorado State -1.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -109 | 37 h 44 m | Show |
10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10-25-20 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 129 h 2 m | Show |
10-25-20 | Bucs v. Raiders UNDER 53.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -108 | 125 h 48 m | Show |
10-25-20 | Panthers v. Saints UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 122 h 41 m | Show |
10-25-20 | Bills v. Jets +11 | Top | 18-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
10-24-20 | West Virginia -2.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Georgia Tech v. Boston College -3 | Top | 27-48 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Alabama v. Tennessee UNDER 66 | Top | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Virginia Tech v. Wake Forest +10 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma State -3 | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
10-23-20 | Tulsa -10.5 v. South Florida | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 53 h 46 m | Show |
10-22-20 | Giants +4.5 v. Eagles | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State UNDER 68 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 25 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs +1 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 71 h 34 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
10-17-20 | North Texas +6.5 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 52-35 | Win | 100 | 47 h 14 m | Show |
10-17-20 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas UNDER 76 | Top | 21-33 | Win | 100 | 54 h 17 m | Show |
10-17-20 | Navy v. East Carolina UNDER 57 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
10-17-20 | Pittsburgh +13.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 19-31 | Win | 100 | 42 h 8 m | Show |
10-16-20 | SMU v. Tulane +6.5 | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 60 m | Show |
10-15-20 | Georgia State +4 v. Arkansas State | Top | 52-59 | Loss | -114 | 48 h 41 m | Show |
10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 59.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 16-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Vikings +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 57 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns | Top | 23-32 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 15 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Bengals +13 v. Ravens | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
10-10-20 | Miami-FL v. Clemson -14 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 47 h 25 m | Show |
10-10-20 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky -1.5 | Top | 2-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 12 m | Show |
10-10-20 | Marshall v. Western Kentucky +7.5 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
10-10-20 | Florida State v. Notre Dame -20.5 | Top | 26-42 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
10-10-20 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech -14 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 9 m | Show |
10-10-20 | NC State v. Virginia UNDER 60.5 | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
10-09-20 | Louisville -4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 27-46 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 22 m | Show |
10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears +4 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 43 m | Show |
10-08-20 | Tulane +7 v. Houston | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -113 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers UNDER 57.5 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
10-04-20 | Eagles v. 49ers -7 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
10-04-20 | Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
10-04-20 | Seahawks v. Dolphins +6 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
10-04-20 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team +14.5 | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
10-04-20 | Saints v. Lions UNDER 54 | Top | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
10-03-20 | Virginia +29 v. Clemson | Top | 23-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
10-03-20 | Georgia Southern v. UL-Monroe OVER 49 | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
10-03-20 | Charlotte +6.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
10-03-20 | Texas A&M +18.5 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech v. BYU UNDER 60 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 2 m | Show |
10-01-20 | Broncos +2 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 55 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints UNDER 53 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
09-27-20 | Bucs v. Broncos +6.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
09-27-20 | Cowboys v. Seahawks UNDER 57.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
09-27-20 | 49ers v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 36-9 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
09-27-20 | Texans +4.5 v. Steelers | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Troy +14.5 v. BYU | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Kansas v. Baylor -17.5 | Top | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Duke +4.5 v. Virginia | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Texas -17.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 63-56 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
09-26-20 | West Virginia +6.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Tulane -3 v. Southern Miss | Top | 66-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Iowa State v. TCU +2.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. UTSA | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars -2.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -126 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
09-24-20 | UAB -6.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
09-20-20 | Lions +7 v. Packers | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -140 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 39-40 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
09-19-20 | Miami-FL v. Louisville UNDER 65 | Top | 47-34 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 24 m | Show |
09-19-20 | Louisiana Tech +5.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 47 h 14 m | Show |
09-19-20 | SMU v. North Texas +14 | Top | 65-35 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 39 m | Show |
09-19-20 | Troy -3 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 47-14 | Win | 100 | 43 h 6 m | Show |
09-19-20 | Boston College +6 v. Duke | Top | 26-6 | Win | 100 | 39 h 41 m | Show |
09-19-20 | Tulsa +24 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 7-16 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 43.5 | Top | 30-35 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 3 m | Show |
09-14-20 | Steelers v. Giants +7 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -138 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
09-13-20 | Bucs v. Saints UNDER 48 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
09-13-20 | Raiders v. Panthers +3 | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
09-13-20 | Bears v. Lions -2.5 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
09-12-20 | Western Kentucky +12.5 v. Louisville | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 38 m | Show |
09-12-20 | Clemson v. Wake Forest +34 | Top | 37-13 | Win | 100 | 48 h 28 m | Show |
09-12-20 | UTSA +7 v. Texas State | Top | 51-48 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |