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Tom Grassi Basketball Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-06-14 | Utah Jazz +12 v. Golden State Warriors | 102-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Tom Grassi 20* NBA Smart Money
The Books opened up Golden State as huge 12.5 point favorites and the public has jumped all over them with about 72% of the action on the Warriors. With all that square money on Golden State, you would assume the line would stick right around 12.5 or possibly move up to 13 but it has bumped down a tick to 11.5 at most books. The Public is going to be let down again tonight as 11.5 is still too many points for the Warriors to cover. Utah is coming off a decent win over New Orleans 100-96 as small two point home dogs. They hit over 50% from the field which is the first time since the end of Febuary when they beat the Phoenix suns 109-86 as two point home favorites. Look for them to come out strong tonight and keep it within the 11.5 points for a cover at the betting window! Golden State is coming off a ridiculous win over Sacramento, destroying them 102-69! That is a 33 point win and with them laying nine points, they covered the spread by a solid 24 points. Don’t expect another epic performance from the Warriors tonight. In their last meeting, which took place at the end of January, the Jazz kept it right within the points and covered the spread. They lost 95-90 but were getting six points at home and took the ATS win! Watch as they keep it within the number again tonight and shock the public with back to back covers. Go against all that square money and take the points! Play on Utah |
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04-05-14 | Kentucky v. Wisconsin +2 | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 29 h 53 m | Show | |
Tom Grassi 20* NCAA Final Four Winner
This Kentucky team is on a roll. The question is can it continue. The Wildcats come into this game off of wins over Wichita State, Louisville, and Michigan. Those three wins by a combined 10 points. Kentucky has been perfect in the tournament covering all four games. Wisconsin scored a big win over top seed Arizona last week to advance. The Badgers have been up and down all season but are playing very well right now. Coach Ryan has them playing their old style of tough defense as they have allowed only 56 points per game in the tournament. We like Wisconsin to stop Kentucky’s run and advance to the National Championship game Monday night. An alarming stat when looking at Kentucky’s last three games is the fact that they have allowed opponents to shoot over 50% from the floor. The Badgers run a disciplined offense and we think they will be able to score against Kentucky. Also, Kentucky was able to score inside against a very small Michigan team and we don’t see that happening against Wisconsin. Lastly, Kentucky will have to play without Cauley-Stein again and that will have an effect against a deep Wisconsin team. Kentucky opened as 2-point favorites and despite attracting 62% of the money the line at most books have dropped the line down to 1.5-points. The smart money is on Wisconsin and so is ours. Go get Wisconsin plus 2-points at Bovada.lv. Play on Wisconsin |
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04-05-14 | Connecticut v. Florida -6 | Top | 63-53 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
Tom Grassi 25* NCAA Final Four Winner
The Huskies are the longshot in the Final Four and will have another tough test on their hands here in Arlington when they take on Florida. UConn opened the tournament with an overtime win over St. Joes and then scored three upset wins. The last a 60-54 win over Michigan State as 5-point dogs. If you look at the stats of that win over Michigan State you wouldn’t think UConn won the game. They shot only 34% and were outrebounded. The Gators have played very well in tournament winning all four games by double digits. They were a little sluggish in their opening game beating Albany by only 12 points and failing to cover as 22-point favorites. They then whipped Pittsburgh and UCLA, before punching their tickets to the Final Four by beating Dayton. These two teams played in early December at Connecticut and the Huskies beat Florida 65-64, one of two Florida’s losses. UConn hit 11 of 24 three point shots and still won by only one point on their home court. We look for a much different result this time. Florida is a much better team right now and their defense and rebounding will be much too much for UConn. Look for the Gators to score another double digit win. Play on Florida. |
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04-05-14 | Connecticut v. Florida UNDER 127 | Top | 63-53 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
Tom Grassi 25* NCAA Tourney Total of the Year
Florida’s staple is defense and they will display that tonight against Connecticut. They are allowing opponents to hit less than 40% of their shots in the tournament. Connecticut isn’t bad on defense either as they are allowing only 64 points per game on the road this season. These two teams met earlier this season and there were 129 points scored. However, Connecticut hit 11 three pointers in that contest. Don’t see that happening this time. This game with a 125 point total and the betting public has taken it up to 126.5 or 127 points. We’re not buying the move. Both teams have been solid under plays this season with UConn posting a 20-12 under mark and Florida 21-10 under record. Take UConn and Florida Under the total. |
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04-04-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets -2.5 | 107-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Tom Grassi 20* NBA Signature Selection
The Rockets opened as 2.5 point home favorites and with almost 75% of the money coming in on the Thunder, we expected the line to bump up a point or two but it has stuck right at the opening number and has even dropped a tick to 2 at a few books. The public is loading up on the Thunder and will be let down when the Rockets cash this one at the betting window as small home favorites. OKC is playing some solid basketball, especially after that strong win over San Antonio 106-94 yesterday as 3.5 point home favorites. That puts them in a bad spot tonight after such strong performance. They are coming into this road trip on a three game winning streak and have won 9 of their last 11 straight up and only missed one cover in their last five matchups. They are due for a loss and Houston should have no problem ending their winning streak. The Rockets, who are coming into this matchup off three straight losses are due for a win and are in a revenge situation after getting beat by Oak City 106-98 as five point road dogs back in March. Look for them to come out strong this evening with a very solid performance. Play on Houston |
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04-02-14 | Fresno State +1.5 v. Siena | Top | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
Tom Grassi 25* CBI Game of the Year The Bulldogs take on the Saints in game two of the three game series with the Saints leading 1-0. The Books opened Siena as 1.5 point favorites and it looks like a complete trap after that embarrassing loss for Fresno State 61-57 as eight point home favorites. Look for a strong revenge performance from the Bulldogs in game two as the Saints four game SU and ATS winning streak comes to an end. While the Saints come into this matchup on absolute Fire, winning eight of their last nine matchups and covering all but one, which pushed, the Bulldogs are due for a cover at the betting window. Fresno State is coming off back to back ATS losses and they have only covered three of their last eight. After shooting 48% and allowing only 33% from the Saints, the Bulldogs found a way to lose game one of the series. Siena was extremely solid at the free throw line, hitting 15-17 for 88.2%, while Fresno State was only 8-13 for a 61%. The Bulldogs were just giving points away with 16 turnovers while Siena only gave up eight. It was just a sloppy performance from Fresno State in the first game of the series. Look for a very strong effort in game two and expect an easy cover. Take the point or two and cash this one at the betting window. Play on Fresno State |
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04-01-14 | Pacific +6 v. Murray State | 75-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Tom Grassi 20* College Hoops Smart Money Pacific takes on Murray State in the Semifinals of the College Insider Tournament. The Racers opened up as 6 point betting favorites but despite over 75% of the action coming in on them, the books have bump the line down a tick to -5. The Racers have played some very strong basketball at home, winning all but one game for a 15-1 SU record. They have also cashed most of their home games at the betting window, with an 11-2 ATS home record. Look for them to disappoint tonight and possibly lose this one outright. This one should be a close game with the Tigers cashing the cover. Pacific is not only 6-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points but they have also cashed 5 of 6 after strong defensive performances in back to back matchups (only allowing 60 points or less). The public is going to fall right into the books trap and be all over the Racers as we will be all over the Tigers. Side with the sharps and take the points. Play on Pacific |
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04-01-14 | Golden State Warriors +4 v. Dallas Mavericks | 122-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Tom Grassi 15* NBA Dog of the Week The Books opened up the Mavericks as 4.5 point favorites and despite over 65% of the money coming in on Dallas, the line has moved down a tick to 4 points. The Squares are all over Dallas at home while the sharp money is coming in heavy on Golden State. The Warriors look to bounce back after that terrible loss to New York. They were laying seven points at home in that matchup and they lost outright 89-84, only hitting 35% from the field. Dallas is coming off back to back ATS losses but will make it three in a row tonight. They almost lost to Sacramento in their last matchup, winning by only 3 points (103-100) as double digit home favorites (-12). Look for them to struggle in this matchup like they did in their last meeting against the Warriors where they suffered a 23 point loss (108-85) as 5.5 point road dogs. Golden State is 18-8 ATS when coming off a home loss and will cash this one at the betting window tonight. Play on Golden State |
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03-31-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +6.5 v. Detroit Pistons | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Tom Grassi 20* NBA Smart Money
A pair of lottery-bound Central Division foes take the court in the NBA tonight as the Detroit Pistons host the Milwaukee Bucks, with both teams looking to wipe out Saturday blowout losses out of their mind. While the Bucks’ defeat came at home against Miami, the Pistons would especially like to forget the fact that theirs came at Philadelphia, helping put an end to the Sixers’ 26-game losing streak. Despite Milwaukee’s loss, the team has been one of the better wagers in the second half of the season, covering in 18 of their 26 contests, including a 9-3 ATS mark in their last 12 road games. They also have been able to cover in six of their last eight divisional clashes. This marks the fourth meeting between the two squads this year, with the Pistons holding a 2-1 advantage. However, in their last meeting on January 22, the Bucks came away with a three-point home upset win, and Detroit is not a team that has been able to take advantage of the revenge angle, managing a weak 7-16 ATS mark in that situation. Detroit has gotten close to three-quarters of the early money, with the line inching up at most offshore books by a half-point. However, given Milwaukee’s success against the line on the road, the amount of points they’re getting from a team like the Pistons seems a bit much, so we’ll take the points here. Play Milwaukee |
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03-30-14 | Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | 98-105 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Tom Grassi 20* NBA Smart Money
The visiting Memphis Grizzlies hit the midway point of their five-game road trip, looking to beat the line for the first time after splitting the first two games straight up. The Portland Trail Blazers, on the other hand, are back home after their own five-game road swing that started out badly, but closed with a pair of wins on back-to-back nights. Two factors are working in favor of Memphis for tonight: they’ve covered each of the last four games in this series, and the road team has a 6-1 ATS advantage in the last seven contests. The Grizzlies have also shown a flair for playing their best against the better teams, managing to cover 11 of their last 14 against teams that have won better than 60 percent of their games. The Trail Blazers, on the other hand, have their problems sustaining the momentum gained from double-digit wins such as their Chicago effort on Friday night. They also have shown a tendency toward needing time to get back into the swing of things after a lengthy road trip. Early money has given a clear edge to the Trail Blazers, but the line has dropped a full point, giving a strong signal that the reverse line movement is the handiwork of the Sharps. With that much of a line change, such backing is worth noticing, which is just what we’ll do as we take the points. Play Memphis |
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03-30-14 | Kentucky v. Michigan +2.5 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
Tom Grassi 25* NCAAB Elite 8 Game of the Year
The Midwest Regional final has a strange situation where the #8 seed enters the game as a slight favorite over the #2 seed. That |
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03-30-14 | Connecticut +6 v. Michigan State | 60-54 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
Tom Grassi 20* NCAAB Tournament Takedown
In the NCAA East Regional final, two teams that weren |
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03-29-14 | Wisconsin v. Arizona UNDER 131.5 | Top | 64-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Tom Grassi 25* NCAAB Elite 8 Total of the Year
In the Western Regional final, the lone 1-2 matchup in the Elite Eight has the top-seeded Arizona Wildcats and Wisconsin Badgers stepping onto the court with both head coaches each feeling pressure to finally get to the Final Four. That type of tense backdrop lends itself to a low-scoring affair, with both teams playing close to the vest. Wisconsin has gone Under in eight of the last nine times they |
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03-29-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -2 | 118-107 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Tom Grassi 20* NBA Smart Money
This Western Conference matchup puts together two of the league |
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03-29-14 | Dayton +10.5 v. Florida | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Tom Grassi 20* NCAAB Tournament Takedown
This South Regional final has the top-ranked team in the country in the Florida Gators facing the Tournament |
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03-28-14 | New York Knicks +6 v. Phoenix Suns | 88-112 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
TOM GRASSI 20* NBA SMART MONEY
The New York Knicks hit the midway point of their five-game Western road trip, having knocked off Sacramento Wednesday night. They travel to the Valley of the Sun to face a Phoenix Suns team that |
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03-28-14 | Kentucky +4.5 v. Louisville | 74-69 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show | |
Tom Grassi 20* NCAAB TOURNAMENT TAKEDOWN
This Sweet Sixteen matchup is likely the most anticpated of all the eight games, given the furious in-state rivalry between the Louisville Cardinals and Kentucky Wildcats. In addition, the two teams have won the last two NCAA titles, with Kentucky having knocked out Louisville in 2012 with an eight-point win in the Final Four semifinals. Being the defending champion automatically puts pressure on the Cardinals, but they also have to contend with a Kentucky team that has beaten the line in each of their last five games, including a near-comeback versus top-ranked Florida and an upset of previously unbeaten Wichita State. In addition, Louisville has looked less than impressive in their two Tournament games: needing a late surge against Manhattan and overcoming a terrible first half versus St. Louis. The Wildcats have held the edge in this series, covering eight of the last 11 clashes, while their status as an underdog in this one also gives them an advantage whereby the underdog has beaten the pointspread in each of the last five get togethers. Early money has a decent-sized majority leaning to Kentucky, which has dropped the line a half-point. That still leaves enough of a cushion for the Wildcats to squeeze in to either cover or win outright. That |
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03-28-14 | Tennessee v. Michigan -2 | Top | 71-73 | Push | 0 | 49 h 20 m | Show |
TOM GRASSI 25* NCAAB SWEET 16 PLAY OF THE YEAR
Reaching the Sweet Sixteen has been an impressive achievement by the Tennessee Volunteers, which went to overtime in a Play-In game to advance before easily dispatching their next two opponents. The favored Michigan Wolverines may have lost in the Big 10 title game, but they |
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03-27-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Dallas Mavericks | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
TOM GRASSI NBA SMART MONEY
This matchup between the Pacific Division-leading Los Angeles Clippers and the Dallas Mavericks puts together a team in the Clippers that are looking to improve their #3 seed status for the upcoming playoffs, with a Mavericks squad that |
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03-27-14 | Dayton +3.5 v. Stanford | 82-72 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
Tom Grassi 20* NCAAB TOURNAMENT SHOCKER
In this battle of NCAA Tournament Cinderellas, each team still faces an uphill climb to even reach the Final Four, much less come away with winning the NCAA title. Since the squads made it this far on the basis of surprising much higher seeds, it should be interesting to see how the Stanford Cardinal reacts in the role of favorite over the Dayton Flyers. The Flyers have certainly shown they can handle themselves against winning teams, managing to cover two thirds of their 21 games in that situation. While Stanford plays in the stronger PAC-12, stepping outside the Atlantic 10 hasn |