Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-21-21 | Dream v. Fever OVER 160.5 | 83-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Indiana at 7 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in the Dream's last game - an 85-77 loss to the Sky. Here, I'll go back to the well with the same play as Atlanta hits the road to face winless Indiana. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Fever coming off a loss by 15 points or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 181.4 points. While the Dream did make positive strides offensively in their last game, scoring 77 points in a losing effort, there's still plenty of room for improvement. Chennedy Carter has been terrific but Atlanta is still waiting for highly-touted draft pick Aari McDonald to come alive. She's been held to a single point in her first two WNBA games but I do expect her to figure it out sooner rather than later. Note that Indiana checks in 10th in the WNBA in defensive rating this season, which should open up some opportunities for the Dream here. On the flip side, I expect Indiana to afford itself plenty of second chance looks here, ranking third in the league in rebounding percentage compared to the Dream's 11th. Last year's two meetings between these teams produced 170 and 192 points. Expect more of the same here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-20-21 | Storm v. Lynx UNDER 164.5 | 90-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Minnesota at 8 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Seattle's season-opening win over Las Vegas before cashing with the Aces in the rematch two nights ago. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as the Storm head to Minnesota to face the winless Lynx. Seattle has lit it up, scoring 177 points through two games but that was against an up-tempo Aces squad that was game for track meets. Here, I look for the Lynx to employ a different tempo against the Storm, noting that Minnesota checks in with the league's 12th-fastest pace going back to the preseason. The Lynx are clearly missing the services of Maya Moore, among others. They'll soon get Napheesa Collier back to boost their offense but not in time for Thursday's game. Kayla McBride, formerly a fan favorite with the Las Vegas Aces, was a nice offseason addition but she's better in a supporting role. She checks in having scored 33 points through two games. Natalie Achonwa is also expected to remain out on Thursday, leaving the Lynx with minimal scoring depth off the bench. While Seattle has thrived offensively so far this season, it will face a challenge against a Lynx squad looking to avoid an 0-3 start to the season. In Minnesota's lone previous home game it held a good Phoenix offense to 41% shooting overall and just 4-of-20 (20%) made threes. Note that two of the last three meetings between these two teams here in Minnesota have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-19-21 | Sky v. Dream OVER 159 | Top | 85-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams turned in 'under' result in their season debuts with the Sky cruising to a 70-56 win over the Washington Mystics and the Dream falling by a 78-67 score against the Connecticut Sun. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night in Atlanta, however. Note that the 'over' is still 16-3 in the Sky's last 19 road games with those contests averaging a total of 170.8 points. Better still, the 'over' has gone a perfect 7-0 the last seven times Chicago has played consecutive road contests with those games totaling an average of 171.4 points. Much will be made about who is missing for the Sky in this one as both Allie Quigley and Stefanie Dolson are expected to miss. Keep in mind, both of those usual key contributors struggled in their season-opener, scoring a combined 11 points on a miserable 3-of-17 shooting. Their absence should simply mean more shots for the likes of Candace Parker and Kahleah Copper, who poured in 19 points in Chicago's season-opening win, showing the potential to build off of last year's breakout campaign. Atlanta saw four of five starters scoring in double-figures in its season-opening loss to Connecticut. That was certainly a tough matchup, as is this one, but I do look for improvement from the Dream offensively after they turned the ball over 13 times against the Sun. Highly-touted 2021 draft pick Aari McDonald struggled in her WNBA regular season debut after looking good in limited preseason action, scoring just one point on 0-for-4 shooting against the Sun. Expect the backcourt duo of McDonald and Chennedy Carter to make some noise in this one. Going back to the preseason, it's worth noting that the Sky and Dream check in T3rd and 5th, respectively, in terms of pace rating. The most recent meeting between these two teams resulted in 186 total points last September. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-18-21 | Aces +1 v. Storm | 96-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas over Seattle at 10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in Saturday's matchup between these two elite WNBA squads - a game Seattle won by a 97-83 score. The Storm turned in a near-perfect performance in that one, shooting 51% from the field and knocking down 12-of-27 (44%) of their three-point attempts. Here, I look for Las Vegas to answer back and finally exact some revenge after dropping four straight meetings in the series going back to last year's WNBA Finals. The Aces are certainly comfortable playing an up-tempo style, which they should be afforded once again on Tuesday night. Their downfall on Saturday was their inability to knock down outside shots, connecting on just 3-of-12 three-point attempts. Look for more of those shots to start falling on Tuesday as they earn a split in this two-game set in the Pacific Northwest, noting that Seattle is 10-25 ATS when coming off an upset win as a home underdog, outscored by an average margin of 7.4 points. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
|||||||
05-18-21 | Lynx -1.5 v. Liberty | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over New York at 7 pm et on Tuesday. New York is off to a perfect 2-0 start to the season but is fortunate to have faced the lowly Indiana Fever twice, and it's worth noting it needed a last-second game-winning shot from Sabrina Ionescu to secure one of those victories. Minnesota suffered a narrow two-point loss in its home-opener against Phoenix but should bounce back here against a weaker opponent. Keep in mind, the Lynx have taken four of their last five meetings with the Liberty, sweeping last year's two matchups by 26 and 30-point margins. Minnesota is a perennial WNBA title contender and should be right there in the conversation this season with the addition of Kayla McBride, who contributed 17 points in the season-opener. Of course the Lynx will be even stronger once they get Napheesa Collier back from quarantine later this week but for now, I believe this is a matchup they can handle with the Liberty missing a number of key players as well. Take Minnesota (10*). |
|||||||
05-16-21 | Mercury v. Sun UNDER 162.5 | 78-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Sunday. This total opened right around where I expected it - higher than it should be in my opinion. We won with Connecticut in its season-opening win in Atlanta on Friday. It faces a much tougher test here against a loaded Mercury squad that checks in off an upset win in Minnesota. The Mercury got off to a slow start offensively in that contest, scoring just 33 first half points before putting up 44 in the final 20 minutes. While Phoenix is known for its offensive prowess, it can play some defense as well, led by perhaps the league's toughest defending in Brittney Griner. The Mercury swatted nine blocks and made six steals against a quality Lynx squad on Friday, holding them to 40% shooting in the two-point victory. Meanwhile, the Sun allowed just 67 points on 36% shooting against an admittedly subpar Dream squad. While Connecticut did score 78 points in the victory, it was actually a rather sloppy performance as it turned the ball over 20 times. I would anticipate seeing the Sun do a better job of running their offense here, but likely not with the same level of production (they shot 44% overall and 44% from three-point range against Atlanta) against a tougher opponent here. Note that the 'under' has gone 56-32 the last 88 times the Mercury have come off an outright underdog victory on the road. The 'under' is 32-15 in the Sun's last 47 games as a home favorite of three points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-15-21 | Aces v. Storm OVER 166 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Seattle at 3 pm et on Saturday. This has the makings of a highly-entertaining season-opener for these two teams after Seattle swept Las Vegas in last year's WNBA Final. Both teams are at a little less than full strength to open this season, as is the case for most WNBA squads here in 2021. But both are also loaded with talent and return enough key cogs to get the season off to a fluent offensive start here on Saturday. If anything, the absence of C Mercedes Russell for the Storm should help open things up on the interior for Las Vegas. Meanwhile, the Storm are obviously brimming with explosive offensive talent led by Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart. The Storm have scored 84 points or more in four straight meetings and I expect them to surpass that number again here. Meanwhile, the Aces will be eager to gain an ounce of revenge and might just have the best offense in the entire league. Expect a high-scoring affair here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-14-21 | Sun -2.5 v. Dream | Top | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I actually like the prospects of both of these teams but Connecticut is the squad that has legitimate championship aspirations, even if the odds are long on the Sun reaching that pinnacle for the first time in franchise history. The Sun return most of their roster from a year ago - a team that got off to a slow start before eventually rounding into form and going on a deep playoff run. While the Sun won't have Alyssa or Jasmine Thomas for Friday's opener, they do have Jonquel Jones back after she opted-out of the 2020 campaign, and should also have the services of Briann January (for limited minutes at least) after there was some question whether she would be able to start the season due to Covid quarantine. Losing Alyssa Thomas for the season to a torn achilles was obviously a major blow, but I do feel the Sun have the depth to stay competitive, especially if rookie DiJonai Carrington can exceed (or even just meet) expectations following an impressive training camp. Look out for Brionna Jones as well as she took on a bigger role in Jonquel Jones' absence last season and comes off an incredible championship season in the Czech Republic League. Atlanta has the potential to improve considerably following its second consecutive losing season but I'm not sure we're going to see it all work right out of the gate. The Dream will be without Tiffany Hayes and Cheyenne Parker for their opener, which means they'll rely heavily on sophomore guard Chennedy Carter and third-overall draft pick Aari MacDonald. Head coach Nicki Collen bolted for Baylor on short notice, leaving the team under the guidance of interim coach Mike Petersen. With a lot of new pieces to work with, it will likely take some time to figure things out. The potential is there for the Dream to be one of the entertaining teams in the league with a guard-heavy rotation, but on night one of the regular season, I expect them to fall short against a more seasoned Sun squad. Take Connecticut (10*). |
|||||||
06-09-18 | Lynx +4.5 v. Sun | 75-89 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Connecticut at 2 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Lynx on Saturday afternoon as they try to build off a win in Washington. Minnesota had surprisingly dropped four games in a row before righting the ship with an 88-80 victory in Washington on Thursday. The Lynx will certainly face a stiff test against the Sun on Saturday, as Connecticut is off to a 6-1 start to the season. It is worth noting, however, that the Sun have cooled slightly, dropping the cash ATS in each of their last two contests. They're back home for the first time following a four-game road trip here, which always presents a bit of a tough spot. Minnesota ended a two-game slide in Connecticut with a win on this floor last season. Look for it to take Connecticut down to the wire at the very least on Saturday. Take Minnesota (10*). |
|||||||
06-07-18 | Lynx v. Mystics UNDER 159.5 | 88-80 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Washington at 4 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' the last time these two teams met back on May 27th but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in today's rematch. The Lynx continue to scuffle along, having lost four games in a row, and most recently managed only 69 points in a loss against the rival Sparks in Los Angeles. The 'under' is now 5-2 in Minnesota's seven games played this season. Meanwhile, the Mystics have dropped three of their last four overall and put up only 64 points in a rout at the hands of Connecticut here at home last time out. The 'under' has cashed in each of their last two games. The last time these two teams met, both were rolling - the Lynx were off to a 2-0 start while Washington had won three games in a row. We ended up seeing 168 total points in that one. I expect a different type of game to play out on Thursday afternoon as both teams desperately try to regain their footing. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-01-18 | Mercury v. Lynx -8 | Top | 95-85 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
WNBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Phoenix at 8 pm et on Friday. The Lynx are off to a miserable 0-5 ATS start this season and have won just two of those five games straight-up. Keep in mind, the Lynx didn't drop their sixth game ATS until July 8th last season. I'm still a believer in this team and I'm confident we'll see them bounce back in a big way at home on Friday night. It is of course worth noting that Minnesota has been on the road for the last three games so it's not as if the Lynx have been falling flat at home. And this should be a favorable matchup for Minnesota as it went 3-0-1 ATS against the Mercury last season. In fact, the Lynx are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings with the Mercury. Phoenix isn't off to a banner start to 2018 either, having lost three games in a row entering this one. I simply feel that Minnesota has a lot more upside right now and back at home I expect to see a much more focused effort. Take Minnesota (10*). |
|||||||
05-31-18 | Aces v. Storm UNDER 168 | 74-101 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Las Vegas and Seattle at 10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams in Vegas this past Sunday as Seattle jumped ahead big early and hung on late for a 105-98 win. I expect a different type of game to unfold on Thursday in Seattle, however, noting that the highest-scoring game between these two teams last year only got to 167 points, and needed overtime to do so (when the Aces were the Silver Stars). Prior to Sunday's 98-point outburst, the Aces had been held to just 65 and 70 points in their first two games this season. They welcomed Kayla McBride back to the lineup and her presence obviously gave them a boost but I'm not anticipating similar offensive output here. The Storm have already played five games this season, winning four of them. After jumping ahead early and letting their opposition climb back in over their last couple of games I look for them to tighten things up considerably tonight. We have certainly seen what the Storm are capable of defensively this season, holding Phoenix to 71 points and Washington to 77 points in two games of note. The 'over' is 4-1 in their five previous games but that only serves to give us value with the 'under' here in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-29-18 | Mystics v. Storm -3 | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Washington at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mystics are coming off a huge victory over Minnesota on Sunday afternoon, prevailing on the strength of a tremendous effort from their bench. I can't help but feel we'll see a letdown here, however, as Washington hits the road still undefeated at 4-0 on the season. Note that the Mystics haven't won a game here in Seattle since May 2016. Seattle has quietly gotten off to a solid start itself, having won three of its first four contests this season. The Storm seem to be gaining confidence with each passing game, even if they did have to hold on for a closer than it should have been victory in Las Vegas on Sunday (they led by 18 points at halftime but won by just seven). Their poor second half in that game may serve as a good lesson learned heading into this much tougher matchup on Tuesday. Take Seattle (10*). |
|||||||
05-29-18 | Lynx v. Dream OVER 156 | 74-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in the Lynx's most recent game - a 90-78 loss in Washington on Sunday afternoon. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as Minnesota stays on the road to play the Dream in Atlanta. The Lynx are off to a surprisingly slow start having split their first four games. They've yet to score more than 78 points in a game which is alarming considering they didn't score lower than 80 points in four games until August last year. I do see this as a favorable spot for them to bust out offensively. Keep in mind, Atlanta has already allowed over 100 points in a game on one occasion this season. The Dream have bounced back with better defensive efforts in their last two games but will be taking a step up in class here. Atlanta turned in a miserable shooting performance against Dallas last time out, connecting on less than 30% of their FG attempts. The pace was there, however, as they hoisted up 85 shots in that contest. Expect a relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-27-18 | Lynx v. Mystics OVER 156.5 | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Washington at 3 pm et on Sunday. These two teams met six times last season, with four of those games at least getting into the 160's and three of them reaching the 170's. This total has opened relatively low, but I do expect it to move up. With that being said, the potential is there for the two teams to sail 'over' the number. Washington has performed exceptionally well at the offensive end of the floor, with the exception of a flat spot at home against the Las Vegas Aces in its second game (we won with the Aces in that game). Meanwhile, we've yet to see Minnesota's best as it has been held under 80 points in three straight games to open the season, but it's coming. The Lynx shot poorly in their last game in New York, but still managed to approach 80 points. Expect them to top that number on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-25-18 | Sky +7.5 v. Storm | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Seattle at 10 pm et on Friday. The young Chicago Sky face their first bit of adversity following a blowout loss at home against Atlanta on Wednesday. The Sky had opened the campaign with back-to-back victories. Meanwhile, the Storm are coming off an early season revenge spot, one they made good on in Phoenix on Wednesday night. I'm looking for a tightly-contested affair in the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Look for the Sky's young nucleus to bounce back with a big effort. Take Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
05-24-18 | Mystics v. Fever +4.5 | 93-84 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Washington at 7 pm et on Thursday. Quick analysis for this play on Thursday night. It's early in the season, but this is a big game for the Fever. Off to an 0-3 start (1-2 ATS) this is a winnable game for Indiana to finally feel good about itself after a tough stretch to open the campaign. We successfully faded Washington last time out against a short-handed Las Vegas squad. Yes, the Mystics have won their first two games, but they've failed to cover the spread in both of those contests. Washington has owned this series recently from a SU perspective, but Indiana has actually taken the last two games ATS-wise. Mystics are laying too many points here in my opinion. Take Indiana (10*). |
|||||||
05-23-18 | Wings v. Lynx OVER 166.5 | 68-76 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8 pm et on Wednesday. The Lynx saw their season opener go 'under' the total but that was against a very familiar opponent in the L.A. Sparks. Keep in mind, those two teams went the distance in last year's WNBA Finals. Not surprisingly they were involved in a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair in their 2018 opener. I expect a different story to unfold here as the Lynx should be able to get out and run against a Dallas squad that won't shy away from a track meet. The Wings opened the campaign with a tough 86-78 loss at Phoenix but followed it up with a 101-78 rout of what should be a solid Atlanta Dream squad. That's pretty much what you're going to get from the Wings, offensive prowess but defensive inconsistency. I do feel like Dallas can rack up some points in the paint against the Lynx on Wednesday night. The Wings had no answers for the Lynx offense a year ago, giving up 89, 91 and 100 points in three meetings. I'm not sure that changes here. On the flip side, Dallas should improve on the 78 points per game it produced against Minnesota last season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-23-18 | Dream v. Sky -2.5 | 81-63 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Atlanta at 12 noon et on Wednesday. I was waiting and still anticipate a better line with the Sky but with tipoff fast approaching we'll take a shot at the current price. The Sky are a young team, and they're still missing a couple of key pieces as league play wraps up overseas. With that being said, they have plenty of upside, and are off to a somewhat surprising 2-0 start - winning both games as underdogs. I like the way this one sets up for them as well as I consider Atlanta to be an overvalued squad as the 2018 season gets rolling. The Dream were blown off the court by Dallas in their season opener. While they'll undoubtedly show more fight in this one, I'm still not convinced it will be enough. Getting Angel McCoughtry back certainly helps their cause. However, as we saw in their opener, I do think the Dream are going to have a tough time finding consistent offensive production up and down their lineup. Chicago looks poised to go on an early season run and I'll take a flyer on the Sky here on Wednesday afternoon. Take Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
05-22-18 | Aces +17 v. Mystics | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Washington at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Aces started their season with a thud on Sunday, falling by 36 points on the road against Connecticut. There was no real shame in that loss, however, as the Sun are poised for a big season and the Aces are still missing a couple of key cogs in the backcourt. With that being said, I do look for Las Vegas to give Washington a bit of a run on Tuesday night, even if it isn't being priced that way. Washington won its season opener by an 82-75 score over Indiana on Sunday. The Mystics certainly have the potential to do some damage in the Eastern Conference this season but I don't believe they belong in this price range, this early, regardless the opposition. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
|||||||
08-29-17 | Connecticut Sun v. Washington Mystics UNDER 169.5 | 86-76 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Connecticut and Washington at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Washington on Tuesday night. We're dealing with a higher total than we saw in the last matchup between these two squads - not surprising given that last matchup finished with a whopping 188 total points. Here, I look for Connecticut to tighten things up after allowing 96 points last time out. Note that the Sun are giving up just north of 81 points per game this season. Washington has seen the 'under' cash in each of its last two games and allows just a shade over 80 points per contest at home this season. It's worth noting that six of the last seven matchups between these two squads have finished 'under' the total we're dealing with on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
08-15-17 | Connecticut Sun v. Atlanta Dream UNDER 166.5 | Top | 96-75 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
WNBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Connecticut and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This is the highest total we've seen in this series this season, and by a considerable margin. I'm not sure the move is warranted. Note that Connecticut has been on fire of late, and is coming off a huge 96-point outburst last time out. All five Sun starters scored in double-figures in that contest, a feat I don't expect them to repeat on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, Atlanta can't get out of its own way right now. The Dream are going to have to tighten things up defensively if they want to hang around in this one given the way the Sun have been scoring at will. Keep in mind, Connecticut's last loss came in its last road game, and it scored only 80 points in that setback in New York back on July 19th. Atlanta has allowed 80+ points in four straight games, but I don't believe that is a sustainable trend. Note that the Dream are giving up just north of 78 points per game at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
07-18-17 | Chicago Sky v. Seattle Storm UNDER 166.5 | 94-83 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Seattle at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Seattle on Tuesday night. The Sky are coming off a wild 112-106 overtime loss in Dallas last time out. Keep in mind, just two games back they gave up only 68 points in a road win in New York. Note that the Sky have held the opposition to just under 40% shooting on the road this season. Seattle has allowed 83 and 84 points in its last two games, after giving up 69, 79, and 69 points in its previous three contests. Prior to its last game, the 'under' had cashed in the Storm's last four contests. The 'over' has cashed at a 7-1 clip in the last eight meetings in this series but that only serves to give us a higher total to work with this time around. Things have obviously changed a lot in Chicago since the last time these two teams met last season. I'm not anticipating a barn-burner on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
07-14-17 | Minnesota Lynx -6 v. Phoenix Mercury | 88-71 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Friday. The Lynx know how to handle the duo of Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi. They've successfully done so before, and I'm confident they'll do it again on Friday night. Minnesota shouldn't lack focus in this one, not after suffering an ugly 100-76 loss as a 14.5-point favorite in Chicago last time out. That was the Lynx's first loss in eight games on the road this season. They've already managed to get by the Mercury on this floor by a 91-83 score earlier in the campaign. Phoenix checks in off of four consecutive wins. Keep in mind, the Mercury were favored in all four of those games. The last time they found themselves in an underdog role, they suffered that aforementioned home loss to the Lynx. Note that Phoenix is just 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season. Take Minnesota (10*). |
|||||||
07-12-17 | San Antonio Stars +9 v. Indiana Fever | 79-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Indiana at 12 noon et on Wednesday. The Stars are catching a boatload of points here but they're more than capable of hanging with the Fever as far as I'm concerned. Yes, San Antonio has struggled to find the win column this season, with just one to its credit. However, the Stars have managed to go a respectable 8-8-1 ATS overall and they've stayed within single digits on the road against the likes of Los Angeles and Minnesota - two of the league's best teams. Indiana has dropped two in a row and three of its last four games overall. The Fever are just 6-9-1 ATS this season. The road team has won three straight meetings in this series and the Stars are 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups. Take San Antonio (10*). |
|||||||
07-07-17 | Phoenix Mercury v. San Antonio Stars UNDER 156 | 92-77 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and San Antonio at 8 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Phoenix's most recent game - an 88-80 home win over Washington on Wednesday night. I'll switch gears and back the 'under' on Friday, however, as the Mercury head to San Antonio to face the Stars. I'm just not convinced San Antonio can score enough to help this total along. The Stars are averaging just under 73 points per game this season. Note that the 'under' is 5-2 in their last seven contests overall. While Phoenix averages just under 82 points per game on the road, it has shot just north of 41% from the field. If the Stars are going to have any chance in this game, they'll need to keep the score down. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
07-06-17 | LA Sparks v. Minnesota Lynx OVER 165 | 77-88 | Push | 0 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 8 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a higher posted total than we saw in last year's WNBA Finals between these two teams, but I believe it's warranted. The Lynx have seen each of their last four and six of their last seven games go 'over' the total and I look for that trend to continue here. Minnesota is a considerable favorite this time around, but I don't expect the Sparks to back down. Los Angeles has won eight games in a row including five straight ATS. With that said, the 'under' has gone 5-1 in its last six games. The Sparks have had a tendency to get involved in higher-scoring games on the road, where they average 86 points per game while giving up just shy of 82. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
07-05-17 | Washington Mystics v. Phoenix Mercury OVER 162.5 | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair in Phoenix on Wednesday night as the Mystics aim to bounce back from a poor second half showing in Los Angeles last time out. Washington scored 47 points in the first half of that contest before being held to only 22 in the second. The Mystics are obviously a better team than they showed in that one, having won their three previous games. Phoenix has scored 80+ points in five of its last six games. The 'over' is 7-1-1 in the Mercury's last nine games overall. The fact that Washington has seen the 'under' cash in five of its last seven contests is helping to keep this total in check. I simply feel that the sky is the limit for both offenses in this particular matchup. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
06-28-17 | Indiana Fever v. Chicago Sky +1.5 | 82-75 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Indiana at 12:30 pm et on Wednesday. Indiana just made the trip to Chicago last week and easily cruised past the Sky by a 91-79 score. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however. Indiana may own the superior record in this matchup but that's not really saying much as the Fever remain a below .500 team at 6-7 SU. They've gone just 5-7-1 ATS while the Sky check in at 6-7 ATS this season. The Sky were blown out in their last game, falling by 34 points at home against the Mystics. Keep in mind, just two games back they went on the road and defeated Atlanta. While Chicago checks in 0-6 SU at home this season, it is certainly a better team than that record shows. The Fever haven't won back-to-back games ATS in this series since back in September 2015. Take Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
06-21-17 | San Antonio Stars +7 v. Dallas Wings | 78-81 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Wednesday. The Stars remain winless on the season at 0-11 but I look for them to give the Wings a serious run on Wednesday afternoon in Dallas. San Antonio was crushed by Seattle last time out, dropping a 75-57 decision. Keep in mind, prior to that the Stars had dropped six straight games by single-digit margins. Their previous two losses were narrow ones, falling by an 85-81 score in overtime against Chicago and by five points in Los Angeles. Dallas is fresh off an outright underdog win over Washington which puts it in a tough spot ATS-wise on Wednesday afternoon. Note that Dallas is just 2-4 SU at home this season. Take San Antonio (10*). |
|||||||
05-21-17 | Washington Mystics +2.5 v. Seattle Storm | Top | 71-81 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Seattle at 7 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the Mystics in their last game - a 10-point setback on Friday night in Los Angeles. They face a lighter matchup on Sunday in Seattle, and I look for them to bounce back. Keep in mind, you only have to go back to last May to find the last time the Mystics won a game here in Seattle. The Storm are coming off a five-point home win over Indiana last time out after opening the season with a 10-point loss in Los Angeles. The oddsmakers have been pretty much on the mark in pricing the Storm so far, but I'm not sure they're deserving of the favorite role in this particular matchup. Washington of course has high hopes this season after landing Elena Delle Donne in the offseason. Note that she has poured in 51 points through two games this season. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
05-19-17 | Washington Mystics +4.5 v. LA Sparks | 89-99 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the points with the Mystics as they head west to face the Sparks on Friday night. Both teams enter this game off of perfect starts, and both teams faced little resistance in their season openers. I simply feel that the Mystics have more upside at this early stage of the season. This is the year to Washington to really make its move after acquiring Elena Delle Donne in the offseason. The Sparks are a perennial contender but I don't believe they warrant this line on Friday night. Prior to L.A. covering in the last three meetings, the previous four went the way of the underdog. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
05-17-17 | Indiana Fever v. Phoenix Mercury OVER 158 | Top | 62-85 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in Phoenix on Wednesday night. The Fever are coming off a tough five-point loss in Seattle in their season-opener. If nothing else, it was an encouraging performance from the Indiana offense, certainly something to build off of as it heads to Phoenix for this one. The Mercury were involved in an uncharacteristically low-scoring affair against Dallas - a game they lost by a 68-58 score. Veteran Diana Taurasi turned in a particularly disappointing effort, contributing only three points on 1-of-11 shooting. I certainly expect her to respond favorably in this one. The Mercury as a whole should shoot far better from beyond the arc, after connecting on only 4-of-19 attempts from three-point range in their season debut. The last meeting between these two teams last September totaled 167 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-14-17 | San Antonio Stars v. Washington Mystics -15 | 74-89 | Push | 0 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over San Antonio at 3 pm et on Sunday. We're being asked to lay a lot of points with the Mystics in this one, but I believe the line is warranted. Of course, Washington enters the new season with plenty of fanfare having landed Elena Delle Donne in the offseason, among others. The Mystics will be looking to make a statement here in their season opener and they catch the Stars in a favorable spot as San Antonio is coming off a 73-64 loss in New York yesterday. That was actually a pretty flattering outcome for San Antonio, a team that will have a tough time contending for a playoff spot this season. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
05-13-17 | Atlanta Dream v. Connecticut Sun -7.5 | 81-74 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Sun as they host the Dream to open the 2017 WNBA campaign. Atlanta will begin the post-Angel McCoughtry era and I believe there could be some growing pains. The Dream went just 17-17 SU last season and will be hard-pressed to top that mark in 2017. McCoughtry did it all at both ends of the floor and won't be easily replaced. The Sun are coming off a down year but have the potential to make a run in the Eastern Conference this year with a true team mentality. Connecticut has a lot to build on after getting hot at the end of last season and I like the fact that the Sun get to start at home against a beatable opponent. Take Connecticut (10*). |
|||||||
09-15-16 | Seattle Storm v. Phoenix Mercury -5.5 | 62-86 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Seattle at 10 pm et on Thursday. Phoenix has played three home games since returning from the Olympic break, going a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS. The Mercury have gone 0-2 against the Storm this season, including a stunning one-point loss here at home, but I look for them to respond favorably the third time around. Seattle is red hot right now, but a letdown could be in order after a big home win, in blowout fashion, last time out against Los Angeles. I believe we're being asked to lay a reasonable number here. Phoenix is a better team than it has shown. Take Phoenix (10*). |
|||||||
09-13-16 | Minnesota Lynx v. Chicago Sky +5 | Top | 97-98 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the points with the Sky at home as they host the mighty Lynx, who are enjoying a record-setting campaign. I simply feel that this spot sets up well for Chicago as it rolls into this matchup having won five of its last seven contests, scoring 90+ points in five of those games. While the Lynx have taken both previous meetings in this series this season, it's not as if Chicago has been that far off, scoring at least 80 points in both contests. The home team is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series with the Sky slipping in a victory over that stretch. The Sky are trying to keep their heads above water, and stay north of the .500 mark. This is obviously a huge step up spot for Chicago while Minnesota could be in for a letdown off five consecutive wins and nearing the end of what has been, as I mentioned a record-setting season. Take Chicago (10*). |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Sean Murphy WNBA Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-21-21 | Dream v. Fever OVER 160.5 | 83-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
05-20-21 | Storm v. Lynx UNDER 164.5 | 90-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
05-19-21 | Sky v. Dream OVER 159 | Top | 85-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
05-18-21 | Aces +1 v. Storm | 96-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
05-18-21 | Lynx -1.5 v. Liberty | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
05-16-21 | Mercury v. Sun UNDER 162.5 | 78-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
05-15-21 | Aces v. Storm OVER 166 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
05-14-21 | Sun -2.5 v. Dream | Top | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
06-09-18 | Lynx +4.5 v. Sun | 75-89 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
06-07-18 | Lynx v. Mystics UNDER 159.5 | 88-80 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
06-01-18 | Mercury v. Lynx -8 | Top | 95-85 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
05-31-18 | Aces v. Storm UNDER 168 | 74-101 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
05-29-18 | Mystics v. Storm -3 | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
05-29-18 | Lynx v. Dream OVER 156 | 74-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
05-27-18 | Lynx v. Mystics OVER 156.5 | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
05-25-18 | Sky +7.5 v. Storm | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
05-24-18 | Mystics v. Fever +4.5 | 93-84 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
05-23-18 | Wings v. Lynx OVER 166.5 | 68-76 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
05-23-18 | Dream v. Sky -2.5 | 81-63 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
05-22-18 | Aces +17 v. Mystics | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
08-29-17 | Connecticut Sun v. Washington Mystics UNDER 169.5 | 86-76 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
08-15-17 | Connecticut Sun v. Atlanta Dream UNDER 166.5 | Top | 96-75 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
07-18-17 | Chicago Sky v. Seattle Storm UNDER 166.5 | 94-83 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
07-14-17 | Minnesota Lynx -6 v. Phoenix Mercury | 88-71 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
07-12-17 | San Antonio Stars +9 v. Indiana Fever | 79-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
07-07-17 | Phoenix Mercury v. San Antonio Stars UNDER 156 | 92-77 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
07-06-17 | LA Sparks v. Minnesota Lynx OVER 165 | 77-88 | Push | 0 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
07-05-17 | Washington Mystics v. Phoenix Mercury OVER 162.5 | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
06-28-17 | Indiana Fever v. Chicago Sky +1.5 | 82-75 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 7 m | Show | |
06-21-17 | San Antonio Stars +7 v. Dallas Wings | 78-81 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
05-21-17 | Washington Mystics +2.5 v. Seattle Storm | Top | 71-81 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
05-19-17 | Washington Mystics +4.5 v. LA Sparks | 89-99 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
05-17-17 | Indiana Fever v. Phoenix Mercury OVER 158 | Top | 62-85 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
05-14-17 | San Antonio Stars v. Washington Mystics -15 | 74-89 | Push | 0 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
05-13-17 | Atlanta Dream v. Connecticut Sun -7.5 | 81-74 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
09-15-16 | Seattle Storm v. Phoenix Mercury -5.5 | 62-86 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
09-13-16 | Minnesota Lynx v. Chicago Sky +5 | Top | 97-98 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |