Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers OVER 46 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in Seattle’s win over Green Bay last Thursday night and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson looks as healthy as he has been all season and has now thrown for over 400 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two games. Add in the fact that RB Chris Carson has been productive in four of his last six games and this is an offense with a lot of upside right now. The Panthers benefited from facing a predictable Lions offense last week but still fell by a 20-19 score. There should be a sense of urgency as they return home this week off of back-to-back road losses. I’m still high on the Carolina offense, which has certainly had its share of big games this season. We can count on a big bounce-back effort here against a beatable Seahawks defense that just isn’t what it once was, particularly in the secondary. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 44 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. If we lose this play, so be it. I'm just not sure where the offense is going to come from with the Bears missing their emerging young quarterback and the Lions without their top rusher and one of their top two wide receivers, not to mention their starting right guard. Chicago is playing on an extremely short week after outlasting the Vikings on Sunday night. It has barely practiced in advance of this game and I can't imagine QB Chase Daniel will have the full offensive playbook at his disposal. Of course, the Bears defense is one of the few dominant defenses left in the NFL today. They'll have a major advantage against an undermanned Lions offense that is missing RB Kerryon Johnson, who is coming off one of the best efforts of his young career, and played a major part in the first meeting between these two teams this season. On the other side, we've seen the Lions defense improve, particularly against the run, since adding Snacks Harrison. While their secondary is missing some key cogs, I'm not sure the Bears will be able to take full advantage without Trubisky. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams UNDER 63.5 | 51-54 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'm going to take the contrarian route and back the 'under' in this showdown between the Chiefs and Rams on Monday night. The move from Mexico City to Los Angeles didn't have any effect on this total, despite the fact it would have set up even better for the 'over' in the high altitude of Mexico, where the defenses would have likely worn down in a hurry. The Chiefs defense in particular has actually performed well lately, allowing just 10, 23, 21 and 14 points during their current four-game winning streak. They'll obviously be taking a big step up in class here but I do feel they can hold up well. The Rams defense hasn't come close to living up to expectations but do benefit from catching the Chiefs at home at least. We certainly don't need a defensive slugfest to cash this ticket. A shootout and an 'under' result could actually correlate with the exceptionally high total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-18-18 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 45 | 20-25 | Push | 0 | 54 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. |
|||||||
11-18-18 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 56 | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 1 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. |
|||||||
11-18-18 | Steelers v. Jaguars UNDER 47 | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. The Jaguars will be playing their first true home game since way back in Week 7. They do draw the red hot Steelers in a favorable spot here, with Pittsburgh playing on the road in an early start game, where QB Ben Roethlisberger has typically struggled. I do see this as a solid bounce-back matchup for the Jaguars defense, which hasn't come close to living up to expectations this season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's defense has quietly turned things around following a disastrous start to the season. The Steelers have to be licking their chops at the prospect of facing the Jags undermanned and overmatched offensive line. While RB Leonard Fournette did provide the Jags a spark in his return last week, I'm not sure he'll be able to do enough to make up for QB Blake Bortles shortcomings on Sunday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Seattle on Thursday night as the Seahawks host the Packers in an intriguing NFC matchup. The Seahawks are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair in Los Angeles last Sunday, ultimately falling by a 36-31 score against the Rams. Seattle's defense is undermanned, missing LB K.J. Wright once again. The Seahawks have been getting torched on the ground lately and this one sets up as another unfavorable matchup against an improving Packers running game. Green Bay RB Aaron Jones is gaining close to seven yards per carry and should have little trouble carving up the Seahawks vulnerable run defense here. That opens things up for QB Aaron Rodgers to perhaps finally turn in the big performance many have been waiting for. I have full confidence in the Seahawks offense going up against a banged-up Packers defense. Green Bay is already missing a number of key cogs and LB Blake Martinez is questionable as well playing on a short week on a bad ankle. The matchup sets up well for Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. I'm confident we'll see him take a lot of shots downfield with WRs Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett in this one. It's also worth noting that like the Seahawks, the Packers are vulnerable against the run, giving up just shy of five yards per rush over their last four contests. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers OVER 44.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We saw the 49ers post an 'under' result in primetime last week, rolling to a blowout victory over the hapless Raiders. Meanwhile, everyone is down on the Giants offense with struggling QB Eli Manning at the helm. With that being said, I believe we're in for a rather entertaining affair on Monday night as the Niners host the Giants in Santa Clara. As long as the G-Men have the likes of RB Saquon Barkley, WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepherd and TE Even Engram, they have a shot. The 49ers defense is banged up and hasn't been good against the pass at the best of times this season so I'm confident we'll see New York find some offensive success. Meanwhile, the San Francisco offense looked rejuvenated with QB Nick Mullens at the helm and I expect to see some carry-over from last week's performance. Like the Giants, the 49ers do still have talent at the skill positions on offense with RB Matt Breida, WR Marquise Goodwin and TE George Kittle. The Giants defense is undermanned, particularly in the secondary which opens the door for another solid performance from Mullens. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Cardinals v. Chiefs OVER 49.5 | 14-26 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arizona and Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday. This isn’t one of the highest totals on the board this week but it absolutely should be as I believe it has shootout potential. The Cardinals are coming off their bye week but prior to that we saw new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich take over play-calling duties and show some glimmers of hope for this struggling group. Rookie QB Josh Rosen certainly has potential and that potential can be reached an awful lot sooner by better incorporating RB David Johnson and WR Larry Fitzgerald in the offense. Even though Arizona scored only 15 points in a loss to the 49ers last time out, Rosen actually threw for over 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns with Fitzgerald hauling in eight catches for over 100 yards and a score. The Cards offense obviously draws a favorable matchup here as the Chiefs have struggled on defense for much of the season, even if they have shown positive signs of late. To be honest, I’m not sure we’ll need all that much from the Arizona offense to get ‘over’ this reasonable total but we may get it anyway. No opponent has truly been able to slow down the vaunted Chiefs offense and I don’t expect anything to change on Sunday afternoon. RB Kareem Hunt should have an absolute field day against Arizona’s dreadful run defense while QB Patrick Mahomes will have little trouble carving up a secondary that faces considerable drop-off after Patrick Peterson. Even if WR Sammy Watkins can’t go in this one, forcing even more attention than usual WR Tyreek Hill’s way, the Chiefs simply have too many offensive weapons for the Cardinals defense to contend with. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 48 h 58 m | Show |
NFL TNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this total sets up on Thursday night. I expected to see a considerably higher number but perhaps the Steelers relatively low-scoring result last Sunday in Baltimore has helped keep it in check. We won with the 'under' in Pittsburgh's victory over the Ravens and also leaned hard to the 'over' in the Panthers rout of the Bucs. This is a favorable spot for both offenses on Thursday night and I believe both teams will come in with the mentality that they'll need to finish drives with touchdowns not field goals in order to secure a victory. This has the makings of a shootout. The Panthers offense was good, but perhaps not great against a weak Bucs defense last Sunday afternoon. RB Christian McCaffrey has taken his game to another level this season, which has had a lot to do with the outstanding run blocking by the Panthers offensive line. QB Cam Newton didn't have a banner game against the Bucs, but still put up solid numbers, and left some points on the field. He should be able to run wild against a Steelers defense that has had a tough time containing mobile quarterbacks this season. I also expect Newton and WR Devin Funchess, not to mention TE Greg Olsen to have a field day against this beatable Steelers secondary. On the flip side, the Panthers defense is not all that imposing and faces a Pittsburgh offense that has been gaining steam lately, and really did a nice job of getting WR Antonio Brown going last Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger has enjoyed plenty of time in the pocket this season with the Steelers o-line doing a tremendous job protecting him, particularly of late. Big Ben should have all the time in the world to pick apart an average Panthers pass defense on Thursday night. The last time these two teams met they got into the 50's - that was back when the Panthers didn't have the explosive ground game they do now. Expect another shootout on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints OVER 56.5 | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is the highest total on the board this week but it's warranted in my opinion. The Saints expected shootout with the Vikings fizzled last Sunday night as New Orleans jumped out in front and was able to control the game from there. Here, I'm anticipating more of a true back-and-forth shootout as both offenses are capable of scoring at will, and both will come in with the mentality that they'll need to finish drives with 7's on the board in order to secure a victory. The fact that we get this matchup in ideal conditions at the Superdome only adds to my confidence in the 'over'. The Rams will likely have WR Cooper Kupp back on the field and he should make an immediate impact against a beatable Saints pass defense. With all of the tools at his disposal, I'm confident Rams head coach Sean McVay will draw up a gameplan to scorch this up-and-down Saints defense. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles defense hasn't exactly lived up to expectations this season and the New Orleans offense continues to round into form, leading to a mismatch here. Saints WR Michael Thomas should have a field day, as should RB Alvin Kamara. I'm just not convinced either defense will have any answers on Sunday afternoon in New Orleans. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 47 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
NFL AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Baltimore on Sunday afternoon as the Ravens and Steelers do battle for the second time this season. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the first matchup and I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘under’ in this spot. The Steelers just aren’t the same offensive team on the road, particularly in these early start games. The Ravens defense didn’t perform well last week in Carolina but should bounce back against a familiar opponent here at home. This is still one of the best defenses in the league and they’ll certainly be up for this matchup against an explosive Steelers offense. Meanwhile, we’ve seen Pittsburgh’s defense play better lately, essentially dating back to that last meeting with the Ravens on September 30th. Since then, Pittsburgh has allowed 17, 21 and 18 points during its three-game winning streak. The Ravens offense has been good, but certainly not great on a consistent basis, having been held to 27 points or less in seven straight games since exploding for 47 points in their opener against the Bills. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Falcons v. Redskins UNDER 48 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Atlanta and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. We’re dealing with a fairly high total here considering both of these defenses come in playing relatively well. The Falcons are loaded with weapons on offense but they will face a tough test here as the Redskins are arguably playing their best defensive football of the season right now. That has had something to do with the schedule they’ve faced, although their current three-game winning streak did begin with a stellar defensive performance in a 23-17 win over the Panthers. Since getting torched by the Saints in New Orleans on Drew Brees’ record-setting night back on October 8th, they’ve really tightened things up. Getting the Falcons outdoors, away from the ideal conditions inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is a key for Washington. On the other side of the football, the Falcons defense has played better the last couple of games and now comes off the bye week. Atlanta welcomed Grady Jarrett back last time out, and his presence will be key against the Redskins run-first offensive attack. With RB Chris Thompson banged-up, the ‘Skins aren’t able to fully employ their preferred short passing game, which would ordinarily be a massive advantage against a Falcons defense that is willing to concede passes to running backs. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills UNDER 45 | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Orchard Park on Monday night. The Patriots have been involved in back-to-back wild, high-scoring affairs but I don't believe they'll need nearly as much offense to secure a fifth straight win on Monday. It's certainly worth noting that the Pats have scored at least 38 points in four straight games heading into this one. While the Bills aren't thought of as much, the fact is they do possess a pretty solid defense, despite being on the field an awful lot this season. Their weakness is against the run but I'm not sure the Patriots have the ground game to take full advantage - especially with RB Sony Michel likely sidelined for this one. While New England is known for its offense, the Pats defense has come up big when called upon as well. You have to think the Bills will take a conservative approach with veteran Derek Anderson under center. That actually plays into the hands of a Pats defense that is hungry after giving up a ton of points in the last two weeks, albeit against two good offensive teams in the Chiefs and Bears. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Pats last three games. We haven't seen four straight 'over' results involving New England since the first four games last season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-28-18 | Colts v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. It seems that most are quick to downgrade the Raiders offense after dealing away WR Amari Cooper. The fact is, Coopers has underachieved in a big way this season and I actually feel his departure may serve to give this offense a bit of a jumpstart. This is certainly a 'get right' matchup against a weak and undermanned Colts defense. On the flip side, the Colts continue to bomb away with no running game to speak of. I certainly anticipate Andrew Luck having a field day against a very weak Raiders pass defense and non-existent pass rush. We're dealing with a high total for a reason in this one, yet most bettors aren't expecting much from either offense. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-28-18 | Bucs v. Bengals OVER 54.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is one of the highest totals on this week's NFL board but it's warranted in my opinion. Both teams are dealing with cluster injuries on the defensive side of the football. The Bucs were already without Gerald McCoy and Vinny Curry and will now have to go on without Kwon Alexander as well. Meanwhile, the Bucs are missing a number of key cogs, with Vontaze Burfict the latest to go down. Both offenses are poised to take full advantage on Sunday afternoon. We saw 'under' results from both teams last Sunday but that's of little consequence here. The Bucs were able to march the football up and down the field against a better Cleveland defense than the one they'll face here. The Bengals couldn't get out of an early hole against the Chiefs, which completely changed their offensive gameplan. They should be more comfortable back at home against arguably the league's worst defense in the Bucs. This one has all the makings of a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans UNDER 44.5 | 23-42 | Loss | -107 | 47 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Houston at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Dolphins have surprisingly been involved in back-to-back high-scoring 'over' results, which comes on the heels of consecutive 'under' outcomes. I'm not anticipating a lot of offense in Thursday night's game as Miami will need to lean heavily on its defense to stay competitive with cluster injuries at the wide receiver position on offense. The Texans have done an excellent job of taking away opposing running games this season and should be able to do the same against Miami, forcing QB Brock Osweiler to beat them through the air, something I'm not sure he's capable of with both Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills ruled out due to injuries. The Miami defense is certainly beatable but the Texans haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, having put up 20 points or less in three straight games. They've scored 22 points or less in six of seven games this season. Texans QB DeShaun Watson has been serviceable this season but lacks the mobility we've been accustomed to seeing from him due to a myriad of injuries. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 58 | 10-45 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. These lofty totals have become much more commonplace in NFL action this season after a number of years where we would see totals top out at 54 points or so. In this case, I believe the high posted total is warranted as this matchup sets up as a shootout. The Chiefs are of course rolling on offense right now and unlikely to be slowed down by a Bengals defense that hasn't done much to stop opposing running or passing games this season. Even with the return of LB Vontaze Burfict, the Bengals are still giving up just shy of five yards per rush. Meanwhile, they've been getting shredded on a weekly basis by opposing passing games. The Bengals offense remains somewhat underrated with QB Andy Dalton enjoying a renaissance year under center. RB Joe Mixon returned to the field last week and should contribute after being a virtual non-factor against the Steelers last week. We won with the 'under' in last week's game against the Steelers, as we anticipated more of a physical, defensive tone between two defensive rivals. I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 52 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
NFL NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Santa Clara on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Rams last game – a relatively low-scoring win in Denver last week. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. Los Angeles will certainly be taking a step down in class against a 49ers defense that did nothing to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the somewhat limited Packers offense on Monday night. In fact, the Niners have had a tough time slowing down anyone this season. The good news is, the San Francisco offense continues to evolve with C.J. Beathard under center. He certainly looked comfortable running the offense in Green Bay on Monday night and while he faces a slightly tougher test here, the fact is the Rams defense has been below average, and will be playing on the road for the third straight game. With RB Matt Breida, TE George Kittle and WR Marquise Goodwin, the Niners have more than their share of offensive weapons. Meanwhile, the Rams will be without WR Cooper Kupp but shouldn’t miss a beat offensively. QB Jared Goff is coming off a subpar performance last Sunday but should bounce back in a big way here. And of course RB Todd Gurley should run wild as he’s done virtually every week this season. This is a high posted total but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears OVER 48 | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between New England and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. I believe there’s strong potential for a back-and-forth shootout in this game as both teams come in off high-scoring affairs last Sunday. The Patriots offense continues to round into form. They’re fresh off a 43-point effort against the hapless Chiefs defense last Sunday night so they’ll definitely be facing a tougher challenge here. With that being said, I believe they’re in good position to keep building against a Bears defense that got completely worn down in the Miami heat last Sunday afternoon. It’s worth noting that Khalil Mack is questionable for the Bears as he deals with an ankle injury. I really like the emergence of RB Sony Michel in the Patriots offense, not to mention the way WR Julian Edelman has worked his way back into the fold. We should only see the Pats offense continue to improve from here. Meanwhile, the Bears offense has also been evolving nicely with QB Mitchell Trubisky settling in and doing an excellent job of spreading the football around to his multitude of weapons. Over his last two games, Trubisky has thrown for well over 600 yards and nine touchdowns (mind you much of that success came against the lowly Bucs defense two games back). In this particular matchup, Chicago should find success with their short passing game. Note that the Patriots have given up at least 24 points in four of six games this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Vikings v. Jets OVER 45.5 | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Minnesota and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon as the Vikings find themselves in a terrific spot to explode offensively. The Jets haven’t been able to generate a pass rush, nor have they don’t a consistently good job defending the pass. That leaves them in a very difficult position trying to slow down a Vikings offense that save for its pass protection has been truly electric this season. The question is whether the Jets can do enough offensively to help this total along. The good news is they do come in with plenty of confidence following back-to-back big offensive showings against the Broncos and Colts. They’ll face a tougher test here, but should be able to turn some drives into points, noting that the Vikings did lose one of their most underrated defenders in cornerback Mike Hughes to a torn ACL last week. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Browns v. Bucs OVER 52 | 23-26 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cleveland and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. There’s little reason to expect anything other than a shootout in this Sunday afternoon matchup in Tampa. The Browns offense has the potential to go off, just as virtually every opponent of the dreadful Bucs defense has this season. Bucs defensive coordinator Mike Smith was fired earlier this week but it’s tough to envision much changing here. It’s worth noting that the Tampa Bay defense is without two of its best defenders in DT Gerald McCoy and DE Vinny Curry. Browns QB Baker Mayfield should have plenty of time and room to operate and has just enough talent at the WR and TE position to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard here. We saw the Bucs offense thrive, as expected, in Atlanta last Sunday (we won with the ‘over’) and while it certainly draws a tougher matchup here, I’m still anticipating plenty of scoring drives, noting that the Browns defense suffered a big drop-off in performance in their last road game, a wild 45-42 loss in Oakland. This is one of the highest totals on the board this week for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers OVER 46 | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' at Lambeau Field on Monday night. Most have already written off the 49ers given all of their injuries, including the big one to QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Last week's home loss to the lowly Cardinals certainly did nothing to change that narrative. While I'm not high enough on the 'Niners to suggest grabbing the points with them here on Monday, I do expect them to do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. QB C.J. Beathard has actually performed admirably in a backup role here since the start of last season. Last week we saw him turn in a 300+ yard passing day, even with a number of his offensive weapons sidelined. What I like about Beathard is his ability to extend plays with his mobility. Note that he has scored a rushing touchdown in four of the eight games he's gotten into since the start of last year. The emergence of TE George Kittle has given the 49ers offense a different look this season and he should prove to be a handful for the Packers struggling defense on Monday. Even though he's still nursing a number of injuries, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers continues to bomb away and that's not going to change on Monday night. With the return of RB Aaron Jones the Packers do possess a more versatile offense than they did earlier this season, with three capable running backs to lean on. Like the 49ers, the Pack are also dealing with some key injuries on offense and at wide receiver in particular. I'm not really sure it matters all that much here though. Rodgers should be able to turn in one of his best stat lines of the season against a very beatable 49ers defense that hasn't had any success generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks or slowing down vertical aerial attacks. Look for a big night from Packers TE Jimmy Graham. It's also worth noting that the 'Niners are giving up well north of four yards per rush this season. This may not evolve into a true shootout, but I do believe the posted total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Ravens v. Titans UNDER 42 | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 67 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Baltimore and Tennessee at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘under’ in the Ravens overtime loss to the Browns last Sunday and I’ll go right back to the well with the same play this week as Baltimore stays on the road to face the Titans. This Baltimore defense continues to improve and welcomed back cornerback Jimmy Smith last week – a true gamechanger for this unit. I’m confident in Baltimore’s ability to limit a below average Titans offense here. Tennessee has topped out at 26 points this season, but that came two weeks ago against a depleted Eagles defense that has struggled in the early going. The good news is, the Titans do possess a terrific defense that is capable of containing a Ravens offense that has really only been able to bust out against bottom-tier defenses this season. We’ve seen Baltimore make headway against the likes of Buffalo, Denver and Pittsburgh. However, in its other two games against Cincinnati and Cleveland it managed to score a grand total of 32 points. Note that when these two teams met last season, the Titans prevailed by a 23-20 score. I believe both defenses are better this year and anticipate a lower-scoring affair as a result. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos OVER 51.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -107 | 67 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Even with the Rams injury concerns at the wide receiver position, and the Broncos struggles with Case Keenum under center, I’m still anticipating a shootout in Denver on Sunday afternoon. The Rams offense has a bit of a ‘next man up’ feel so even if Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are unable to go, I still expect to see this unit put plenty of points on the board. Keep in mind, the Rams still have arguably the best running back in football in Todd Gurley, who should have a field day against a vulnerable Broncos run defense on Sunday afternoon. We successfully faded the Broncos on the road against the Jets last Sunday and the fact is, the final numbers put up by their offense actually made things look a lot better than they actually were, putting points on the board in garbage time. Here, I am expecting a strong bounce-back performance from the Denver offense as they draw a favorable matchup against a Rams defense that has had a miserable time slowing down opponents this season. While Los Angeles is certainly thought of as an elite team, deservingly so, it’s largely on the strength of its offense. Defensively, the Rams are missing key cogs and the personnel they have had on the field has not come close to living up to expectations. There’s little reason to expect a sudden turnaround as they stay on the road for the second straight week and face a highly-motivated Broncos offense. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Colts v. Jets OVER 45 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 64 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Indianapolis and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. The Colts defense has fallen back to Earth following a surprisingly strong start to the season. They check into this one having allowed over 30 points in back-to-back games and while things should get a little easier here, the Jets are coming off their best offensive showing of the season last week and could build off of that performance in this favorable matchup at home. QB Sam Darnold has shown plenty of positives in his rookie campaign and should be brimming with confidence after hitting a number of big plays against the Broncos once-feared pass defense last week. We saw WR Robby Anderson re-emerge in last week’s contest and I look for some carry-over from that performance as he continues to build chemistry with Darnold. On the flip side, the Colts offense has shown some progression with QB Andrew Luck getting back in rhythm with the offense. He did well to keep his team in the game against the Patriots last week. The Colts have been bombing away, so to speak, and I anticipate more of the same here this Sunday as Indianapolis could be playing from behind once again. The Jets defense isn’t scaring anyone these days. While the Colts are still missing WR T.Y. Hilton and TE Jack Doyle, they showed last week that they can still consistently move the football down the field with their short passing game. It’s that short game that should give the Jets some trouble on Sunday afternoon. We’re dealing with a relatively low total here due to the reputations these two teams carry as AFC also-rans. I see the game playing out differently. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Seahawks v. Raiders OVER 48 | 27-3 | Loss | -109 | 64 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. It’s not easy to call for a shootout in a game involving the Raiders these days. They were absolutely manhandled by the Chargers last Sunday but do find themselves in a favorable spot here facing a Seahawks defense that is by no means a feared unit anymore. After giving RB Marshawn Lynch very little work in last week’s blowout loss, I do expect Oakland to go back to Lynch in this matchup against his former team and that should bode well for the Raiders offensive production. As for the Seahawks, I expect their offense to go off against a weak Raiders defense that hasn’t been able to stop the run, allowing over five yards per rush, nor has it been able to defend the deep ball, which plays right into the hands of this Seattle aerial attack. The Seahawks are of course back at full strength in their passing game with WR Doug Baldwin back on the field. He was virtually a non-factor in last week’s narrow loss to the Rams but should play a much bigger role this Sunday. Meanwhile, the Seahawks ground game has quietly emerged as a serious threat to opposing defenses and I’m confident we’ll see Chris Carson and Mike Davis run wild in this contest. This is a reasonably high posted total for a ‘London game’ but I do believe it’s warranted. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 57 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Tampa Bay and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is the game that will likely have fantasy owners scrambling to pick up Bucs QB Jameis Winston. Tampa Bay will turn to Winston on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta and he draws an extremely favorable matchup in his first start back. I may sound like a broken record playing Falcons ‘overs’ seemingly every week but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Atlanta defense remains depleted and faces another opponent that won’t hesitate to go vertical on them all afternoon long. With little semblance of a running game, the Bucs will likely bomb away and find success doing so. On the flip side, the Falcons offense is coming off a bit of a stinker last week in Pittsburgh. They were able to move the football but ultimately couldn’t put points on the board, but should rebound against a Bucs defense that has shown absolutely zero ability to slow down opposing passing games. Tampa Bay’s main focus is on stopping the run, and it has done a good job of limiting opposing backs. However, the Bucs secondary is bottom of the barrel and will certainly have its hands full against the Falcons loaded receiving corps. We’re dealing with a very high posted total in this one, but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 52.5 | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting a shootout between these two high-scoring division rivals on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati but these AFC North slugfests rarely play out that way (the most recent meeting between these two teams went 23-20 in favor of the Steelers) and I anticipate more of the same this week. The Steelers were in an absolutely beautiful spot last week, hosting a depleted Falcons defense, at home no less. Not surprisingly, they had their way with Atlanta offensively (we won with the Steelers and the over) but should face a considerably tougher challenge on the road against the Bengals on Sunday. Cincinnati is coming off a strong defensive showing last week, absolutely shutting the Dolphins down after digging an early hole, allowing the offense to rally before notching a late defensive score. I look for some carry-over from that second half performance here. Keep in mind, the Bengals defense has gotten stronger, particularly against the run, with the return of LB Vontaze Burfict. Pittsburgh’s defense had been getting torched repeatedly prior to last week’s bounce-back performance against the Falcons. That effort should bode well for this group as it prepares to face a somewhat underrated Bengals offense on Sunday afternoon. Both teams may very well get into the 20’s in this contest, but I believe the lofty posted total will simply prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5 | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Giants last second loss at Carolina last Sunday while missing the mark with the 'over' in the Eagles home loss to the Vikings. I'll stay the course and call for the 'over' again as this matchup has shootout potential on Thursday night. The Eagles offense didn't look particularly sharp last Sunday against Minnesota but it may have been a case of the wrong place at the wrong time as the Vikes were bent on revenge after falling in last year's NFC Championship Game and were coming off an extended week following a tough Thursday night loss to the Rams in Los Angeles, in which their defense got lit up. Here the Eagles will draw a Giants defense that hasn't had any answers for opposing offenses this season due to injuries and otherwise. The G-Men will get Olivier Vernon back this week but all indications are that he'll be on a limited snap count. In the last eight meetings in this series, the Giants have allowed 27, 34, 27, 35, 23, 24, 27 and 34 points. As for the Giants offense, we've seen them turning things around lately, scoring at least 27 points in two of their last three games. The Eagles defense is injury-ravaged and has had its hands full with Eli Manning and co. at the best of times in recent years. I've been one of Manning's biggest critics but there's no denying we saw plenty of positives in last week's shootout loss to the Panthers. It does seem as if the G-Men are finally figuring out ways to move the football with all of that star power on offense. With Rodney McLeod sidelined and now his replacement Corey Graham on the shelf as well, Philadelphia is in a tough spot trying to defend the pass. Regardless who falls behind in this game there's certainly 'bomb away' potential against these defenses. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5 | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at the Superdome on Monday night. The Redskins have given up yardage in big chunks on the ground this season but that's by design as they're willing to give up rushing yards and focus on stopping the pass. That should actually serve them well against the explosive Saints offense on Monday night. Note that New Orleans will get RB Mark Ingram back from suspension on Monday which could certainly lead to the Saints being a little more run-oriented. The Saints defense has finally shown some signs of life after a miserable start to the season. They were tough on the Giants last week, on the road no less, and keep in mind, New York scored 30+ points yesterday in Carolina. Here, the Saints draw a manageable matchup as the Redskins offense isn't going to scare anyone. QB Alex Smith has yet to get completely in sync with the offense and Washington has proven rather one-dimensional over its last couple of games (after Adrian Peterson turned back the clock in Week 1 against Arizona). I simply feel that we'll see plenty of long, clock-eating drives in this contest. I'm not convinced that the lofty total is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Cowboys v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 58 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Houston at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Perhaps the fact that both of these teams were involved in relatively high-scoring games last week, certainly higher-scoring than expected, is resulting in us dealing with a rather lofty posted total in advance of this Sunday night showdown. Whatever the case, I'll back the 'under' as I don't have a great deal of faith in either offense right now. The Cowboys will do their best to churn out long, clock-eating drives on offense again this week, centring around RB Ezekiel Elliott. While I do believe the Texans have their weaknesses defensively, most of those lie in the secondary where they are ravaged by injuries. Their run defense has actually been stout, giving up just 3.6 yards per rush this season. And the question remains whether the Cowboys are capable of exposing any secondary, no matter how depleted, with their often lifeless passing game. The Dallas defense doesn't get nearly enough credit, mainly because it's been overshadowed by the issues on offense. Even without LB Sean Lee, the 'Boys still possess a solid defense across the board and one that will only get better with the return of DL David Irving from suspension this week. Lee's absence is mainly felt against the run but the Texans backfield is average at best. It's through the air where the Cowboys will need to be on their toes defending but I like the way their secondary matches up against the Texans strong wide receiving corps led by DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. The last time these two teams met in 2014 we saw only 37 total points. That has little bearing on the outcome of this week's game but I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 50 | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' at CenturyLink Field on Sunday afternoon. We've actually won with the 'over' in each of the Rams last two contests and there's absolutely no reason to switch gears here. It seems impossible, but the Rams offense is actually getting better with each passing week. It feels like ages ago that we saw them sputter in the early going against the Raiders in Week 1. Now they look like a fine-tuned machine and with an extra few days to prepare for this matchup against a depleted Seahawks defense I fully expect a big performance across the board. There are concerns worth noting on the Rams defense, however. Cornerback Aqib Talib remains sidelined and while fellow corner Marcus Peters has managed to stay on the field he hasn't looked healthy and has subsequently gotten burned on a number of occasions over the last couple of weeks. Los Angeles should be able to score at will against the Earl Thomas-less Seattle defense but I don't believe it will be the only team putting points on the board on Sunday afternoon. Seattle did welcome back WR Doug Baldwin last week and in his absence Tyler Lockett carved out a nice role in this offense as well. Likely playing from behind most of the day, I expect the Seahawks to all but abandon their running game and more passing certainly helps our cause with the 'over'. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 46 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 45 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Philadelphia at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings loss to the Rams last Thursday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Entering the season most believed Minnesota's defense would be one of the best in the league but that simply hasn't been the case, due to injuries and otherwise. The Rams absolutely exposed the Vikings defense (if it hadn't been already) last week and I expect to see plenty of carry-over from that miserable performance against the Eagles this Sunday. Philadelphia continues to work QB Carson Wentz back into the fold and we saw considerable progression from him last week against the Titans. That was despite facing a Tennessee defense that has applied a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Despite their reputation, I don't believe the Vikes will have much success putting Wentz under duress here. I'm anticipating a big game from Eagles WRs Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery in particular as they should have little trouble finding open field against what has become a porous Minnesota secondary. This is obviously a bit of a desperation spot for the Vikings who are quickly seeing their season crumble before them. With that in mind, we can expect them to throw everything they have at the Eagles, and that has to start with their offense, which is certainly capable of operating at a high level, just as we saw last Thursday night against the Rams. QB Kirk Cousins should be able to find success bombing away against an Eagles pass defense that continues to struggle without corner Rodney McLeod. The Eagles have been much tougher against the run but the Vikes haven't shown much interest in running the football anyway and there's a good chance they'll be playing from behind for much of the game on Sunday, leading to a lot more looks for stud WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 52.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 33 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I've seen enough evolution from the Raiders offense to warrant a play on the 'over' as they make the short trip to Los Angeles to face the Chargers on Sunday afternoon. Oakland certainly didn't shy away from a shootout at home against the Browns last week, moving the football at will against an up-and-coming Cleveland defines. QB Derek Carr has turned things around over the last couple of weeks following a miserable start to the season. He certainly appears to be getting comfortable with veteran WR Jordy Nelson in the slot and last week we saw flashes of big play ability on a couple of ultimately failed hook-ups with WR Martavis Bryant. I like the matchups that Bryant and WR Amari Cooper draw against the Chargers secondary this week. Los Angeles will continue to struggle to keep opposing offenses at bay as long as LB Joey Bosa is sidelined and now will have to press on without another one of their top defenders in LB Kyzir White as well. Meanwhile, there's little reason to believe the Raiders defense will have any answers for the Chargers versatile offense. QB Philip Rivers likely won't have to worry about any sort of pressure on Sunday afternoon as no team has recorded fewer sacks than the Raiders this season. Look for Rivers to have a field day slinging the ball all over the field to his talented group of wide receivers. RB Melvin Gordon doesn't get enough credit for the work he does - perhaps overshadowed by another elite RB in the same city in Todd Gurley. Oakland checks in allowing almost six yards per rush and should also struggle to cover Gordon in the passing game. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a bit of a tough spot for the Ravens playing their second straight division road game after posting an "upset" win in Pittsburgh last Sunday night. That probably wasn't really an upset at all as the Steelers continue to struggle in the early going this season. I do like the fact that Baltimore is catching Cleveland coming back across the country following a big missed opportunity in Oakland last Sunday afternoon. Baltimore continues to get healthier on defense, having welcomed back two of its best run-stoppers in LB C.J. Mosley and DT Michael Pierce last week. Now the Ravens will also get their top corner Jimmy Smith back from suspension and he should make an immediate impact against a Browns offense that probably isn't quite as good as it looked in last week's track meet in Oakland. Offensively, the Ravens have been generally solid but you really never know what you're going to get from QB Joe Flacco. The Browns defense certainly isn't as bad as it looked against the Raiders last Sunday. They seemed to wilt under the pressure of playing with sizeable leads, something they likely won't be afforded this week. A return home should certainly help their cause on the defensive side of the football as well. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Broncos v. Jets UNDER 42.5 | 16-34 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Jets saw their two-game 'under' streak end last week in Jacksonville but it had nothing to do with their own offense. They were held to 17 points or less for a third straight game in that loss and while the Broncos do have some holes they can exploit on defense I'm just not sure they have the personnel in place to take advantage. On the flip side, I am confident we'll see a far better performance from the Jets defense than we did in Jacksonville, noting that they'll catch the Broncos traveling on a short week to play an early start Sunday matchup on the east coast. Denver continues to struggle to score with QB Case Keenum looking more and more like he may not be the right fit in this offense, or simply not capable of being an every-week starting QB in the NFL. Some of his misses were glaring on Monday night, most notably his sideline pass to a wide-open WR Demariyus Thomas that would have likely resulted in a game-winning touchdown. While I do like some of the pieces the Broncos have in place on offense, they lack explosiveness and the ability to string together scoring drives. Note that Denver has scored 23 points or less in all three games since opening the season with a 27-point performance (helped along by three key turnovers) against a depleted Seahawks defense. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Giants v. Panthers OVER 43.5 | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 51 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's little reason to expect the Giants to offer any resistance against a steadily improving Panthers offense on Sunday afternoon in Charlotte. New York has been ravaged by injuries on the defensive side of the football and were it not for a number of mistakes from the Saints offense in the red zone in the first half of last week's game, it easily could have given up 40+ points. That's certainly concerning as the Giants hit the road to face a Panthers squad that is coming off their bye week. I'm not sure we'll need all that much from the Giants offense to get 'over' this very reasonable posted total. With that being said, in spite of Eli Manning's presence, I do believe the G-Men can put together at least a couple of touchdown drives, as they do draw some favorable matchups, most notably for WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard. Meanwhile, RB Saquon Barkley is without question a stud and regardless the matchup should be able to get his in this contest. Note that the Panthers are giving up well north of five yards per rush this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots OVER 50.5 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This may look like a high posted total but it's not really all that high by today's NFL standards. The Colts may not appear all that imposing on offense with WR T.Y. Hilton and TE Jack Doyle sidelined and Andrew Luck still working his way back into form but we certainly saw positive signs from Luck last week as Indy finally 'lifted the lid' so to speak on their now-healthy quarterback. The Colts will be facing a middle of the road, not to mention banged-up New England defense - one that surprisingly held up well against the Dolphins last Sunday, allowing only a late fourth quarter touchdown. Indy does have a couple of offensive weapons that can thrive in this matchup in pass-catching RB Nyheim Hines and TE Eric Ebron. The Patriots couldn't be catching the Colts defense at a better time. Indianapolis has had to play a lot of football over the last couple of weeks and has a number of key defenders either listed as out or questionable to play in this one. Tom Brady will get arguably his favorite target back on the field this week as WR Julian Edelman returns from suspension. TE Rob Gronkowski may not be healthy but I'm not sure it matters. The emergence of RB Sony Michel last week gives the Pats another strong element to their offense. Playing at home for the second straight game following a blowout victory only helps their cause. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 54 | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Denver at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in Denver on Monday night as AFC West rivals the Chiefs and Broncos go head-to-head. Kansas City is of course built for 'overs' with an electric, high-scoring offense and a porous defense. The Chiefs have been lit up both on the ground and through the air through three games this season and nothing figures to change as they face a versatile Broncos offense on Monday night. Denver's offense got derailed in Baltimore last Sunday but faces a more favorable matchup at home here. Note that the Broncos lost breakout rookie RB Phillip Lindsay relatively early in last week's contest. He figures to make an impact against a Chiefs defense that has allowed over five yards per rush to opposing running backs this season. Broncos QB Case Keenum is in a strong bounce-back spot here and should continue to build on his solid rapport with WR Emmanuel Sanders against a very beatable Chiefs secondary. Meanwhile, Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes should have a field day throwing on a Broncos secondary that has really struggled this season. Gone are the days of Denver absolutely shutting down opposing passing games. While it does boast a solid pass rush, Mahomes has shown the ability to beat whatever opposing defenses have thrown at him and I expect nothing different here. This is certainly a high total by NFL standards but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers OVER 50 | 26-14 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. We've seen three straight relatively low-scoring Sunday Night Football matchups to start the season but I look for a different story to unfold this week. While we were previously accustomed to seeing defensive slugfests between the Ravens and Steelers, that hasn't really been the case in recent years. Both of these teams are built on the strength of their offense right now, not necessarily by design in the Ravens case, and that should lead to another high-scoring showdown on Sunday night. The Ravens will get cornerback Jimmy Smith back from suspension in their next game, which is really a game too late as they're in line to get lit up by a loaded Steelers passing game here. We've yet to see Antonio Brown really go off, although we did see signs of it happening this past Monday in Tampa. This should be the game where AB does put up some monster numbers against a vulnerable Ravens pass defense. I also look for Steelers RB James Conner to take a more prominent role, not just running the football, but in the passing game as well. The Ravens offense has really taken off over the last seven or eight games going back to last season. While they're not flashy by any means with Joe Flacco under center, they continue to put up points on a consistent basis. Here they'll be facing a bottom of the barrel Steelers defense that hasn't been able to do anything to limit opposing passing games this season. Even on Monday night, when it looked like Pittsburgh had the game in the bag, they let the Bucs bomb away and ultimately pull within a field goal in the fourth quarter. Expect a high-scoring, back and forth affair at Heinz Field on Sunday night. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Saints v. Giants OVER 50.5 | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 51 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This one sets up as yet another shootout involving the Saints, who stay on the road to face the Giants. New Orleans owns one of the worst defenses in the entire league right now - a stark contrast to what we saw from the Saints a year ago. Now they'll have to face a Giants offense that found its footing in last week's win in Houston. Eli Manning did a much better job of getting the ball out quickly and utilizing the short passing game, leading to a 27-point outburst against the Texans. Manning and the Giants offense draw another favorable matchup here. The question is, can the G-Men slow down the Saints explosive offense. After suffering a hiccup against an underrated Browns defense, the Saints bounced back in a big way last Sunday, lighting up the scoreboard in Atlanta. There's little reason to expect any regression here, noting that the Giants have had no success generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season. Given a clean pocket, Brees should have no trouble carving this New York defense. Perhaps no offensive player is performing as well as Saints RB Alvin Kamara right now and he is in for another big day both on the ground and through the air on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears OVER 46 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. As long as the Bucs continue to play a hyper-aggressive style of offense and no defense whatsoever, they’re an automatic ‘over’ play, even against a quality defensive opponent such as the Bears. Chicago is coming off back-to-back low-scoring games but those results were definitely matchup-driven as they came against the Seahawks and Cardinals. Here, they’ll face their toughest challenge since wilting in the second half against the Packers back in Week 1. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky hasn’t exactly been lighting up opposing defenses – far from it, in fact – but he does draw a favorable matchup here and I like the effort Chicago made to get RB Jordan Howard more involved not only on the ground but in the passing game as well last week. He works as a focal point of this offense. Meanwhile, Trubisky continues to build a stronger rapport with TE Trey Burton and has clearly found a favorite target in WR Allen Robinson. There are enough positives to take away from the Bears offense over the first three games to believe that they can put up some points against the Bucs. Tampa Bay will undoubtedly continue to bomb away in hopes of baiting the Bears into a shootout here. This could be Ryan Fitzpatrick’s last start for a while should he falter so we can be confident knowing that he’ll go down swinging at the very least. Note that it's been made official on Friday that Bears corner Prince Amukamara will not play on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Bengals v. Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cincinnati and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Falcons wild overtime loss to the Saints last Sunday and I’ll go right back to the well with the same play here. The Bengals aren’t known for their offense, but they’ve performed pretty well in the early going this season and even if WR A.J. Green can’t go due to his groin injury this week, I still believe they’ll be able to put plenty of points on the board, due in large part to the mess of injuries the Falcons are dealing with on the defensive side of the football. Atlanta got torched by the Saints offense last week and will be in tough trying to slow down a versatile Bengals offense as well. The absence of Deion Jones and Keanu Neal is obviously key, but Takk McKinley’s injury can’t be understated either. The good news for the Falcons is that they have an offense capable of thriving in a shootout. Everyone was quick to criticize the Falcons red zone offense following their opening game in Philadelphia but since then, all they’ve done is go 8-for-8 ending drives with touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. With the Bengals still missing LB Vontaze Burfict, Falcons RB Tevin Coleman should have a field day on Sunday. And the Falcons have mismatches all over the field at wide receiver, especially with the emergence of rookie Calvin Ridley. Expect to see he and Julio Jones go off in this matchup with a below average Bengals pass defense. Perfect conditions inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium only add to the strength of this play. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Patriots stunning blowout loss in Detroit last Sunday night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Pats always seem to bounce back from bad games, let along back-to-back bad games, as is the case here. The fact they're returning home for the first time since Week 1 certainly helps their cause. Note that New England always seems to score 30+ points against the Dolphins and while Miami has held up well defensively in the early going this season, it's worth noting it has faced the likes of Tennessee, New York (Jets) and Oakland. This will be its toughest test to date by far. Xavien Howard is a stud in the secondary for the Fins but he can't cover everyone. Look for Tom Brady to spread the football around in this contest. On the flip side, the Patriots defense has been getting gashed against the run and will be vulnerable against Miami's underrated RB Kenyon Drake. The Pats simply don't have the personnel to win games with defense right now and even against a middle of the road Dolphins offense, I don't expect to see them turn in a standout performance. Miami has enough playmakers around QB Ryan Tannehill to put some points on the board in this one. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams OVER 49 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Los Angeles on Thursday night. We won with the ‘over’ in the Rams victory over the Chargers last Sunday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. While the Vikings have seen the ‘under’ cash in two of their first three games this season, the fact is, all three of those contests just as easily could and probably should have gone ‘over’ the number. A lot of points were left on the field in their opener against the 49ers as San Francisco in particular had a tough time finishing drives – keep in mind that was against a Vikings defense that was virtually at full strength, and at home no less. The Vikes followed that up with a wild 29-29 tie in Green Bay before returning home in a massive sandwich spot against the lowly Bills, shockingly dropping that game in blowout fashion. There’s no question Minnesota was caught looking past Buffalo and wasn’t sharp on either side of the football. The Vikes know they’ll need to be a lot better, particularly on offense, in order to hang with the red hot Rams on Thursday night. Los Angeles has gotten better offensively with each passing game this season. There really was no stopping Sean McVay’s offense last Sunday as the Rams moved the football at will against a banged-up Chargers defense. Now they face another quality defensive opponent, but one that is also missing a number of key cogs. I look for Rams WR Cooper Kupp in particular to have a big game in this spot after being generally held in check by the Chargers last week. He owns a considerable advantage against Vikings slot corner Mackensie Alexander in this one. The Vikings will be without their best pass rusher in Everson Griffen this week and are banged-up in the secondary as well. For a team that hasn’t performed particularly well defensively on the road, that spells major trouble against the Rams outstanding offense. I do believe the Vikes can hang in there on the strength of their offense, however, and they certainly have ‘bomb away’ potential should they fall behind. Dalvin Cook may be sidelined again on Thursday, but it should be the Minnesota passing game that exploits a couple of mismatches on the perimeter with Rams' corners Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib sidelined. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 54 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I don't see where the stops come from in this non-conference showdown on Monday night. The Steelers have been absolutely torched by two offenses at opposite ends of the spectrum in the Browns and Chiefs. The Bucs enter this matchup absolutely rolling on offense, and playing an extremely aggressive style that should bode well against a weak Steelers defense. The problem for Tampa Bay is, it will be going up against a supremely talented, not to mention highly motivated Steelers offense. We've yet to see Pittsburgh's best offensively but I believe there's a good chance we witness just that on Monday night. RB James Conner has had little trouble filling the absent Le'Veon Bell's role. Meanwhile, we can anticipate a big game out of WR Antonio Brown following last week's frustrations. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions OVER 53.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between New England and Detroit at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This has all the makings of a high-scoring shootout on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots defense isn’t an elite group to begin with and things have gotten worse on the injury front with both Trey Flowers and Patrick Chung expected to miss this week’s game. While the Lions are off to a miserable 0-2 start, they have continued to bomb away with Matt Stafford throwing for well over 600 yards and four touchdowns (to go along with four interceptions). There’s a good chance the Lions will be playing from behind again on Sunday night, which opens the door for another aerial assault from Stafford to his fantastic trio of wide receivers in Tate, Jones and Golladay. I don’t think Lions fans should have any false hope that their team can slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense here. Detroit’s two best defensive players, Ezekiel Ansah and Darius Slay are both expected to miss this game. That leaves the Lions defense completely exposed in this particular matchup. Brady should have little trouble carving up this Detroit secondary in particular, and will have no shortage of motivation after suffering that ugly loss in Jacksonville last Sunday. Expect to see both offenses keep their foot on the gas pedal for four quarters in ideal conditions indoors at Ford Field. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Chargers v. Rams OVER 47.5 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between the Los Angeles Chargers and Los Angeles Rams at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ at the L.A. Coliseum on Sunday afternoon. As long as linebacker Joey Bosa remains sidelined, the Chargers defense will continue to struggle. He’s out again this week and that leaves them in a really tough spot against one of the league’s best offenses in the Rams. There’s little reason to expect the Chargers to offer any sort of resistance against Todd Gurley and head coach Sean McVay will continue to put Jared Goff in position to succeed with a wealth of talented weapons around him. The interesting thing is that the ‘under’ has actually cashed in each of the Rams first two games. That has had more to do with the opposition than anything else, as they’ve gone up against two of the league’s more limited offenses in the Raiders and Cardinals. They’ll face their first real test here as the Chargers can score. Missing Corey Liuget from the offensive line certainly hurts their cause, but I still expect to see them manufacture a number of scoring drives against this tough Rams defense. Look for Keenan Allen in particular to turn in a big performance after not being asked to do very much against the lowly Bills last Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons OVER 53 | 43-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between New Orleans and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a shootout at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday afternoon. We’ve actually cashed a number of ‘under’ tickets in this series over the years but I won’t hesitate to switch gears in this particular matchup. The Saints were somewhat surprisingly held to only 21 points against the Browns last Sunday, at home no less. That has most wondering whether they can get rolling again in this tough divisional road game. I don’t think the Saints will have any problem shaking loose offensively in this one, as they go up against a Falcons defense that is banged up, missing Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. Those injuries can’t be understated, especially when you consider the way the Saints like to attack. Look for another big game from New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara, who should be able to enjoy similar success to what we saw from Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey last week, when he caught 14 passes. I will say it’s hard to have a lot of faith in the Saints defense right now. Were they just a flash in the pan last season? It’s really too early to tell, but there’s no question the Falcons offense will look to attack early and often and I like the way they mixed things up last week, moving away from Julio Jones a little bit, particularly in the red zone after drawing so many questions following that disappointing Week 1 loss in Philadelphia. That’s not to say Jones won’t make a big impact here. He always seems to bring his ‘A’ game against the Saints and we should see a similar story unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins OVER 45 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Green Bay and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Redskins were involved in another low-scoring affair last week, putting only nine points on the board against the Colts. That of course came on the heels of a shutout victory in Arizona the week previous. Those two ‘under’ results are giving us some value with the ‘over’ here in Week 3 as Washington faces its toughest test of the season so far against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay is coming off a wild 29-29 result against the Vikings last Sunday. While Rodgers didn’t look completely comfortable early on in that game he eventually settled in, completing 30-of-42 passes for 281 yards and a touchdown. I expect to see him expand on those numbers here. I liked the fact that TE Jimmy Graham got going with six catches for 95 yards against the Vikes. He should have continued success against the ‘Skins in this spot. The Washington offense couldn’t get anything going against an improved Indianapolis defense defense last week but will be taking a step down in class here. There are going to be games where the Redskins offense really struggles this season. With that being said, I see this as a matchup they can exploit. The Packers are not all that stout over the middle and Washington has a QB in Alex Smith that excels in the short passing game, with a couple of targets that could be in for big days in TE Jordan Reed and pass-catching RB Chris Thompson. After failing to reach the end zone last week, putting 6’s on the board will clearly be a point of emphasis for Jay Gruden’s squad against the Packers. They know that ending drives with field goals won’t be enough to outlast Aaron Rodgers and that mentality lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair at FedEx Field on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns UNDER 40.5 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between New York and Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This is certainly a low posted total by today’s NFL standards but I have a tough time envisioning a game between these two teams eclipsing the number. The Jets absolutely exploded in their Week 1 win at Detroit, on Monday Night Football no less, and it’s apparent that most bettors are willing to give them a pass for last week’s stinker at home against the Dolphins. We won with the ‘under’ in that 20-12 loss this past Sunday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Sam Darnold certainly looks like he has a bright NFL career ahead of him, but it’s still awfully early to be anointing him as the ‘next big thing’. He’ll face another tough challenge here, preparing for an underrated Browns defense on a short week. Simply put, I don’t see the Jets really expanding the playbook for Darnold in this particular matchup. Meanwhile, Cleveland is just trying to win a football game right now. The Browns have scratched and clawed their way to two near-misses against the Steelers and Saints, with little help from their offense, and certainly not from their kicking game. Like Darnold, Tyrod Taylor will be up against it here, even though the Jets don’t offer much of a pass rush - they will present some varied looks in the defensive backfield. I actually expect Taylor to have more success running the football than he will throwing it on Thursday night, which will help keep the clock moving. While special teams and defensive scores can always ruin an ‘under’ bet in this point range, I’m not going to let that steer me away from making this play on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears UNDER 43 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Soldier Field on Monday night. Both of these teams were involved in relatively high-scoring affairs last week, with the 'over' going a perfect 2-0. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday night. The Seahawks got a big day from TE Will Dissly last week against Denver. That was about the only positive to come from the Seattle offense on that day. Keep in mind, the Bears have a stout defense that limited Packers TE Jimmy Graham to just two catches for eight yards last week. Seattle is in tough here without WR Doug Baldwin. This is a bottom-tier offense with a tremendous starting QB in Russell Wilson. I'm not sure he'll be able to do enough to help the Seahawks hang a crooked number on the board on Monday. On the flip side, it's just too early in the Matt Nagy era for the Bears to really unleash their offense. We saw them sputter in the second half against the Packers last Sunday and I don't expect a sudden explosion here. The Seahawks are undermanned defensively but they'll show up on Monday night. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Lions v. 49ers OVER 48 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Detroit and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Santa Clara on Sunday afternoon. I leaned hard to the ‘under’ in the 49ers season-opener in Minnesota last week but ultimately decided to lay off. That one ended up finishing pretty close to the number despite a low-scoring first half, and the final total certainly could have been much higher were it not for missed opportunities by both sides. Here, I’m anticipating a bit of a shootout. The Lions couldn’t have looked any worse than they did in Monday’s blowout loss to the Jets. I do expect a bounce-back of sorts here, at least from the offense. Matt Stafford is one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in football for a reason. Despite his awful performance on Monday, he’ll come back airing it out against a vulnerable 49ers defense on Sunday. The same goes for 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo. He was good but not great but was also facing an elite Vikings defense, on the road no less, in last week’s season-opener. Expect to see him do a better job of finishing drives against the Lions awful defense in this matchup. Outside of Darius Slay the Detroit secondary is among the worst in the league. The ‘Niners should have little trouble taking advantage. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Miami and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in the Jets season-opening win in Detroit (we weren’t close with that play) but won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as New York returns home to host the Dolphins this week. Everyone is singing Sam Darnold’s praises but he will face a much tougher test here than he did against the Lions defense, which was an absolute joke on Monday night. Not only that but Darnold will be working on a short week of preparation following the Monday nighter. Expect another solid but perhaps not spectacular game from the rookie QB. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill did a nice job of managing the game against the Titans last Sunday and will have to play smart again this week as he faces an opportunistic Jets defense. Don’t count on Tannehill airing it out early and often in this contest. I would count on Miami serving the Jets with a heavy dose of their RB tandem in Kenyon Drake and Frank Gore in an effort to control time of possession. This total is actually a couple of points higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders OVER 47.5 | 33-13 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 10:20 pm et on Monday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams in Week 2 of the preseason, as the Rams prevailed by a 19-15 score. Of course, we can throw that result out the window as Los Angeles sat its offensive stars throughout the preseason schedule. I'm expecting a wild, high-scoring contest on Monday night. Everyone is down on the Raiders right now. The Khalil Mack trade obviously has a lot to do with that. But even on offense, few are expecting much from Oakland. I believe that's precisely why the 'over' is a solid play tonight. The Raiders still boast plenty of talent on offense with QB Derek Carr, RB Marshawn Lynch and WR Amari Cooper. As far as I'm concerned all three of those players have a lot to prove this season and will see this showdown with the vaunted Rams defense as a really good opportunity to show that they're not going to be doormats this season. On the flip side, I'm not concerned at all about the Rams offensive starters not seeing game action in August. They'll be ready to go and in their second year under head coach Sean McVay's guidance I expect continued improvement and refinement in this offense. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions UNDER 45 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in the first half of Monday's NFL double-header in Detroit. The Jets won their preseason opener by a 17-0 score over Atlanta but followed it up with three straight losses, scoring a grand total of just 38 points in the process. Sam Darnold takes over at quarterback but I certainly don't expect the Jets to throw him right into the fire in his first career road start, on Monday Night Football no less. Look for a heavy dose of the Jets running game in this one as they count on a combination of that and solid defensive play to shoot for an opening week victory. The Lions put up 33 points in their 'dress rehearsal' game in Week 3 of the preseason but that had little to do with the Detroit starters, with QB Matt Stafford completing just 9-of-18 passes. I'm not all that high on this Lions offense, even with the addition of veteran RB LaGarrette Blount, who should alleviate some of their concerns on the ground. I actually believe it will be the Detroit defense that shines in this contest. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-09-18 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 51 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last year as the Patriots came back to win by a 36-33 score. That has most bettors anticipating another shootout on Sunday afternoon, but I'm not so easily convinced. The Texans were certainly a better defensive team than they showed in that game against the Patriots last season. I believe they have the potential to be even better on that side of the football this year. Meanwhile, the Patriots offense is missing a number of key cogs from a year ago and while they should cruise to another AFC East title, I'm not sure they're going to be the offensive juggernaut we've seen in years' past. Defensively, the Pats were shredded by Texans QB DeShaun Watson in what was really his 'coming out party' a year ago. Expect New England to do a better job of containing Watson this time around. I don't anticipate either team generating much on the ground in this one, and while that can sometimes mean we're in for an air show, I do have confidence in both secondaries to hold up well here in Week 1. Note that the closing total in this matchup last year was just 44.5 points at most books. We're dealing with a much higher number this time around - I'm not sure it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles UNDER 39 | 7-38 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Minnesota and Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Sunday. We’re dealing with a very low total by today’s NFL standards in this one, but I believe it’s warranted. The Vikings were ultimately involved in a high-scoring affair on paper in last week’s thrilling victory over the Saints, as the two teams combined to score 53 points, with 19 of those points coming in the final 3:01 of the fourth quarter. Up until that point, that game could have been classified as a defensive slugfest. Here, I’m expecting more of the same, minus the late explosion. Of course, the venue has to be considered here as the game will be played outdoors rather in the perfect offensive conditions we saw in Minnesota. I expect both teams to lean heavily on their ground attack, with a few shots through the air sprinkled in. We’re talking about two elite defensive teams, and it’s not as if we’re going to see a sudden identity shift with a trip to the Super Bowl hanging in the balance. Both quarterbacks deserve all the credit they’ve been receiving this week, but I don’t think we’ll see either squad put it all on their shoulders in this spot. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Jacksonville and New England at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘under’ on Sunday afternoon in Foxborough. Both of these teams lit up the scoreboard in their respective Divisional Round games last weekend. The Jaguars were buoyed by a number of Steelers turnovers and took advantage of excellent field position throughout the game, an advantage they’re not likely to enjoy against the Pats this Sunday. Meanwhile, New England faced no resistance against a middle of the road Titans defense last Saturday night. Jacksonville’s defense is undoubtedly on another level by comparison. That’s not to say they’ll shut down the Pats vaunted offense by any means, but we don’t really need them to with the total set where it is. While the New England offense gets most of the credit, we’ve seen the defense come up big time and time again and I expect no different here as they take away Jacksonville’s best offensive weapon, RB Leonard Fournette, and force QB Blake Bortles into obvious passing situations. I believe there’s a good chance we see the winning side score in the 24-27 point range here, which puts us in good position to cash our ticket. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers OVER 41 | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' at Heinz Field on Sunday afternoon. The Jags certainly didn't put their best foot forward offensively against the Bills last Sunday, QB Blake Bortles in particular. However, they still managed to win the game, and now they have a shot at accomplishing something truly great in Pittsburgh. I look for a much better showing by Bortles and the offense in general. Keep in mind, RB Leonard Fournette ran wild against the Steelers back in early October, gaining 181 yards and punching in a pair of touchdowns on the ground. Ben Roethlisberger threw five interceptions against the Jags defense on that afternoon, but I expect a much different story to unfold this time around. Big Ben will have all-world WR Antonio Brown back at his disposal, and with Martavis Bryant stepping up down the stretch as well, this aerial attack is truly loaded. We're dealing with a low total, but I don't believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 41.5 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. This is a low total when it comes down to it but I'm not sure it's been set low enough. The Falcons are the best 'under' bet in the league this season. Despite all the talent they possess, their offense continues to struggle to find consistency. There's little reason to expect them to suddenly light it up against an elite, well-rested Eagles defense on Saturday. On the flip side, I have little faith in the Philadelphia offense with Nick Foles at the helm. Like the Falcons, they do have plenty of talent, but without Carson Wentz, I don't believe they're going anywhere. The Falcons defense is an underrated unit to be sure, and I'm confident they'll show up again in the divisional round. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | 3-10 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. We saw two relatively low-scoring affairs in Wild Card action yesterday but I expect to see a different story unfold as the Bills battle the Jags in this one. There are a lot of questions around whether either of these playoff rookie quarterbacks can perform on the postseason stage. I'm actually confident we'll see both turn in solid performances. It's easily overlooked that the Jags offense actually came to life down the stretch with the emergence of a number of young WR talents. On the flip side, Bills QB Tyrod Taylor has played with a chip on his shoulder since being benched earlier in the campaign. While I have respect for both defenses, I don't see them ruling the day on Sunday. We're working with a low total in this spot. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tennessee and Kansas City at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ as the NFL Playoffs kick off in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon. While the Chiefs did close out the regular season with their offensively seemingly humming along, the fact is, neither of these offenses was all that consistent this season. Note that the Titans haven’t allowed more than 27 points in a game since Week 11, when they suffered a 40-17 loss in Pittsburgh, playing just four days after a 24-20 home win over the Bengals. Meanwhile, the Chiefs allowed 15 points or less in their last three games that mattered (they gave up 24 points in last week’s meaningless win over the Broncos – we won with the ‘over’ in that contest). There’s really no need to overthink things here. I’m just not sure that either quarterback really gets rolling, nor do I believe the ground games will run wild in the first of this weekend’s four Wild Card matchups. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-31-17 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 37.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Denver on Sunday afternoon. I'm confident we'll see both offenses open things up in this somewhat meaningless Week 17 matchup. The Chiefs will give rookie Patrick Mahomes a chance under center and I believe we'll see him perform well. Meanwhile, the Broncos offense has been a mess all season long but can take a step toward next season with a strong finish in front of the home faithful. Both defenses have had their ups and downs this season, but in reality there have been more downs than ups. Familiarity generally lends itself to lower scoring football games, but I believe the oddsmakers have gone too low with this total. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans OVER 44.5 | 34-6 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Houston at 4:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in Houston on Christmas Day. This game has shootout written all over it. Last week, the Texans fell behind early and never recovered, scoring only seven points in a blowout loss in Jacksonville. I do expect to see them bounce back against an undermanned Steelers defense, however. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was held down, relatively speaking, by New England last Sunday but should have little trouble responding here in Houston. Look for a big game from Le'Veon Bell, not to mention the Steelers receiving corps, even without Antonio Brown. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers OVER 42 | Top | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The betting marketplace still hasn't caught up with these two rejuvenated offenses, at least considering this relatively low posted total. The Jags have seemingly come out of nowhere to become a contender in the AFC this season and while their defense has led the way for much of the campaign, it has been their offense that has really shouldered the load lately. A host of emerging talents at wide receiver have helped lift up QB Blake Bortles and I expect to see continuation of that strong play here in San Francisco. Meanwhile, the 49ers have found their QB of the future in Jimmy Garoppolo. In fact, he's proving to be their QB of the present as well. This will be Garoppolo's toughest test since taking over the starting job for the Niners, but I'm confident he'll exceed expectations. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Tampa Bay at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I don't believe either of these teams will have trouble moving the football on Monday night. The Falcons stumbled last week against New Orleans, but still managed to prevail in a rather ugly 20-17 affair. I expect them to bounce back in a big way offensively here - QB Matt Ryan in particular. Meanwhile, the Bucs have had some success putting points on the board against the Falcons, even if it hasn't resulted in much success in the win column. Note that Tampa Bay has scored at least 20 points in four straight games. With that being said, it has lost three games in a row and will be highly-motivated to respond here. Keep an eye on Bucs RB Peyton Barber in particular in this one. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-17-17 | Packers v. Panthers UNDER 47 | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. I just don't see this one turning into a shootout, despite the high posted total. The Packers will have Aaron Rodgers back under center but how effective will he be following a long injury layoff? Meanwhile, the Panthers put up 30+ points against a good Vikings defense last week but that was more a case of Minnesota beating itself as far as I'm concerned. QB Cam Newton remains wildly inconsistent throwing the football and he'll be facing a highly-motivated Packers defense here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins OVER 47.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I just don't see where the stops come from on Monday night. The Patriots defense was terrific in Buffalo last week, but after eight straight games allowing 17 points or less, I believe it suffers a bit of a letdown here. Offensively, the Pats will be without Rob Gronkowski but I expect them to continue to churn along, with Tom Brady in particular in line for a big week after being held out of the end zone last Sunday. The Dolphins have had a tough season for sure, but have still managed to score 20 points or more in four of their last five games. Defensively, they've been a mess. They did perform well last week, but that was against the Broncos. Different story here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-10-17 | Ravens v. Steelers OVER 43.5 | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 55 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Pittsburgh at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. When you think of this matchup one of the first things that probably comes to mind is hard-nosed defensive football. I expect a much different story to unfold on Sunday night in Pittsburgh, however. The Ravens have scored 90 points in reeling off three straight wins. Their defense has performed well over that stretch, but they've done so against three struggling offenses in the Packers, Texans and Lions. We won with the 'under' in the Steelers come-from-behind Monday night win in Cincinnati. Here, I feel their defense takes a real hit with the absence of Ryan Shazier. Don't count on this being the same defensive unit we saw in the second half Monday night, when they were fueled by emotion after losing Shazier. Last year's late season matchup here in Pittsburgh totaled 58 points. Expect another high-scoring affair on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons UNDER 52 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Atlanta at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. This is the first meeting between these two teams this season after last year's two matchups sailed 'over' the total. I expect a different story to unfold this time around, however. The Falcons offense hasn't been nearly as prolific as it was last season. Save for a two-game stretch against Seattle and Tampa Bay in November, they simply haven't been scoring touchdowns with any consistency. Against a divisional opponent on Thursday night I don't think things get any easier. Meanwhile, the Saints have been scoring points in bunches, but have also faced some vulnerable defenses in recent weeks. Again, I think the familiarity of the Falcons defense with the Saints offense does come into play here. This is always pegged as a shootout, but the fact is the 'under' is 5-3-1 in the last nine meetings in the series. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 43.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 8:30 pm et on Monday. Prior to last night's low-scoring affair in Seattle, 'overs' had been on quite a run in primetime NFL action. Here, I'm going to back the 'under' as two familiar AFC North foes do battle in a key December matchup. Familiarity is the main logic behind this play. Both teams know what to expect from their opponent, and it certainly helps having a little extra time to prepare for this matchup. The Steelers could be without WR Antonio Brown, although I'm making this play assuming he suits up. On the flip side, we've seen some signs of life from the Bengals offense but I'm still not sold that they'll be able to move the football with any consistency against a serviceable Steelers defense. This total is a bit high in my estimation. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-30-17 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Dallas at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'm anticipating a bit of a shootout in Arlington on Thursday night. The Redskins scored only 20 points against a struggling Giants defense, at home no less, on Thanksgiving Night but I'm not going to knock them for that ho-hum performance. We've seen QB Kirk Cousins renew acquaintances with WR Jamison Crowder and also WR Josh Doctson in recent weeks. Last Thursday Crowder went off for 141 yards on seven catches while Doctson kept up his hot hand with a touchdown as well. RB Samaje Perine looked good out of the backfield as well, running for 100 yards and adding three catches. I don't expect the Redskins to face much resistance against a Cowboys defense that is still missing its anchor, LB Sean Lee. Until he returns, this unit is vulnerable to say the least. The Cowboys offense has struggled mightily since losing RB Ezekiel Elliott to suspension but I'm anticipating a strong bounce-back performance here. There's no excuse for this offense now. The Cowboys were a no-show against the Chargers on Thanksgiving Day but now face a more manageable matchup against a Redskins defense that is also missing some key cogs. There's no doubt this is a huge game for both teams, perhaps a little moreso for the Cowboys on the heels of three straight losses. Look for them to finally find the end zone and spark what should be an entertaining NFC East showdown on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 38 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Baltimore at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The 'under' has cashed in four of the last five meetings in this series and given the way things have gone for these two teams this season, most are anticipating a bit of a stinker in Baltimore on Monday night. I'm not so easily convinced. We saw a glimpse of why the Texans chose Tom Savage as their starting QB prior to the start of the season in last week's 31-21 win over the Cardinals. I look for Savage and DeAndre Hopkins to find plenty of success against the Ravens on Monday. Meanwhile, we've seen the Ravens offense start to show signs of life lately. QB Joe Flacco was sharp in last week's victory in Green Bay. While he doesn't have a wealth of talent around him, he did get do-it-all RB Danny Woodhead back in the fold last Sunday and I expect him to make an impact in this game. We're dealing with a low total here - a little too low in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Sean Murphy NFL Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers OVER 46 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 44 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams UNDER 63.5 | 51-54 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
11-18-18 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 45 | 20-25 | Push | 0 | 54 h 52 m | Show | |
11-18-18 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 56 | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 1 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Steelers v. Jaguars UNDER 47 | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers OVER 44.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Cardinals v. Chiefs OVER 49.5 | 14-26 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 48 h 58 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints OVER 56.5 | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 47 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Falcons v. Redskins UNDER 48 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills UNDER 45 | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
10-28-18 | Colts v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
10-28-18 | Bucs v. Bengals OVER 54.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans UNDER 44.5 | 23-42 | Loss | -107 | 47 h 27 m | Show | |
10-21-18 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 58 | 10-45 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
10-21-18 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 52 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears OVER 48 | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
10-21-18 | Vikings v. Jets OVER 45.5 | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
10-21-18 | Browns v. Bucs OVER 52 | 23-26 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers OVER 46 | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
10-14-18 | Ravens v. Titans UNDER 42 | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 67 h 5 m | Show | |
10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos OVER 51.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -107 | 67 h 47 m | Show |
10-14-18 | Colts v. Jets OVER 45 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 64 h 49 m | Show | |
10-14-18 | Seahawks v. Raiders OVER 48 | 27-3 | Loss | -109 | 64 h 48 m | Show | |
10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 57 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
10-14-18 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 52.5 | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5 | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5 | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Cowboys v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 58 h 36 m | Show | |
10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 50 | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 41 m | Show | |
10-07-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 46 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 45 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 52.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 33 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show | |
10-07-18 | Broncos v. Jets UNDER 42.5 | 16-34 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 47 m | Show | |
10-07-18 | Giants v. Panthers OVER 43.5 | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 51 h 46 m | Show | |
10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots OVER 50.5 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 54 | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers OVER 50 | 26-14 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 57 m | Show | |
09-30-18 | Saints v. Giants OVER 50.5 | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 51 h 58 m | Show | |
09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears OVER 46 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 12 m | Show | |
09-30-18 | Bengals v. Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams OVER 49 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 25 m | Show |
09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 54 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions OVER 53.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
09-23-18 | Chargers v. Rams OVER 47.5 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons OVER 53 | 43-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins OVER 45 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns UNDER 40.5 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears UNDER 43 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
09-16-18 | Lions v. 49ers OVER 48 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
09-16-18 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders OVER 47.5 | 33-13 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions UNDER 45 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
09-09-18 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 51 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles UNDER 39 | 7-38 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers OVER 41 | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 41.5 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | 3-10 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 37.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans OVER 44.5 | 34-6 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers OVER 42 | Top | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
12-17-17 | Packers v. Panthers UNDER 47 | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins OVER 47.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
12-10-17 | Ravens v. Steelers OVER 43.5 | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 55 h 16 m | Show | |
12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons UNDER 52 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 43.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
11-30-17 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 38 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |