Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-26-22 | Pirates v. Rays -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 110 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Pirates have certainly been snake-bitten in this series, dropping consecutive games by a single run, one coming in extra innings and the other in walk-off fashion in a game they led 5-3 in the eighth inning yesterday. Here, I don't anticipate the game being as close as the Rays send their ace Shane McClanahan to the hill against rookie Roansy Contreras of the Buccos. McClanahan has firmly planted himself in the A.L. Cy Young Award conversation this season, posting a 2.74 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while allowing only 2.35 runs per nine innings. The Rays have dropped his last two starts with each of those coming against the best team in baseball, the New York Yankees. Prior to that they had won each of McClanahan's last seven trips to the hill. Contreras is having a fine season by rookie standards. However, I will point out that he'll be starting on four days' rest for just the second time this season and in the previous two outings he gave up 11 hits and five earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings of work. Contreras checks in with a 4.11 FIP and 1.29 WHIP this season, again those are solid numbers, but don't really compare to McClanahan's. Also note that the Rays should continue to have a big advantage in the later innings with a bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a 2.78 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home this season. The Pirates 'pen has really struggled, entering yesterday's game with a 5.06 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over its last seven games (and proceeded to cough up the two-run lead in yesterday's loss). Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (9*). |
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06-26-22 | Astros v. Yankees -155 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Houston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Yankees could just as easily have dropped all three games in this series as they've only managed to salvage the opener in come-from-behind walk-off fashion. I do look for them to close out the series on a positive note on Sunday. Jose Urquidy will take the ball for Houston. He checks in sporting a pedestrian 4.75 FIP and 1.46 WHIP, allowing north of 11.0 walks and just shy of 5.0 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Yankees starter Nestor Cortes Jr. He has posted a 3.32 FIP and 0.96 WHIP, allowing only 2.43 runs per nine innings. Cortes has yielded 4.8 fewer hits per nine innings compared to Urquidy. As I've mentioned previously in this series, the bullpens are virtually a wash with both relief corps' pitching effectively. Here, I look for the Yankees bats against Urquidy to prove to be the difference. Take New York (10*). |
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06-25-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Reds got the better of the struggling Giants in the opener of this series last night, taking advantage of a starting pitching advantage with impressive rookie Graham Ashcraft turning in another fine outing. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as San Francisco hands the ball to its ace Logan Webb against Reds struggling veteran right-hander Mike Minor. Webb went through a bit of a rough patch earlier this season but has once again righted the ship and checks in with a 3.05 FIP and 1.16 WHIP, allowing only 3.36 runs per nine innings on the campaign. He faced the Reds once last season, tossing six shutout innings in an eventual 6-3 Giants victory here at Oracle Park. As I mentioned, Reds starter Mike Minor has had a rough go since joining the rotation. He's recorded an ugly 7.33 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while giving up just shy of 7.0 runs per nine innings in four starts covering 20 2/3 innings of work. Behind Minor is a Reds bullpen that entered last night's game with a collective 7.83 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-25-22 | Red Sox v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series last night by a 6-3 score. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest on Saturday as Boston sends rookie Josh Winckowski to the hill against Guardians ace Shane Bieber. Winckowski hasn't exactly faced the toughest slate of opponents so far, going up against the Orioles, A's and Tigers in his first three big league starts, with all three coming at home no less. With that being said, I like what I've seen from the rookie. He was a little shaky in his debut against the O's but since then has given up just two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings of work. After issuing three walks in his first career start he's handed out only two free passes over his last two outings. While we're dealing with a small sample size, Winckowski checks in with a respectable 3.80 FIP and has allowed just under 3.7 runs per nine innings. It's not as if the Guardians have been tearing the cover off the ball either, scoring three runs or less in four of their last seven contests. Shane Bieber has rounded into form this season, posting a 2.70 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while giving up just 3.35 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a terrific Guardians bullpen that has recorded a collective 2.33 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home this season (entering last night's action). The Red Sox 'pen has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the road (also entering last night's game). Take the under (8*). |
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06-25-22 | Mets -144 v. Marlins | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Miami at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series last night and we'll get behind them on Saturday as they look to continue their recent dominance over the Marlins. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for New York. He's been good but not great this season. He deserved a better fate than a 6-2 loss against these same Marlins last week as he allowed just three earned runs on five hits while striking out nine and walking only two in 6 1/3 innings of work. For the season, Bassitt has posted a 3.80 FIP and 1.17 WHIP. His 4.17 runs allowed per nine innings is a little concerning but still a far cry from what his opponent today, Trevor Rogers, has given up. Rogers may not be long for the Marlins rotation if he continues to struggle. He's recorded an ugly 4.89 FIP and 1.62 WHIP this season while yielding just shy of 6.3 runs per nine innings. Note that he's allowing 2.3 more hits and 1.8 more walks per nine innings compared to Bassitt. The Bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup but we can confidently get behind the Mets with the expectation that they can build a considerable early lead. Take New York (8*). |
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06-25-22 | Blue Jays v. Brewers -151 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Toronto at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Blue Jays got the better of the Brewers in last night's series opener, using a strong starting pitching edge to their advantage with Alek Manoah against Adrian Houser. Here, we should see a different story unfold as it's the Brewers that have the advantage on the mound with ace Corbin Burnes going up against a struggling Yusei Kikuchi. Burnes has had a few hiccups with his command in the early going this season but has generally straightened things out and owns a terrific 2.91 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. Opponents are averaging only 2.63 runs per nine innings against the right-hander. It's been a much different story for Kikuchi. The Blue Jays hoped he would provide some stability at the back of their rotation after coming over from the Mariners but that hasn't been the case. Kikuchi checks in sporting a 5.53 FIP and 1.52 WHIP. He's giving up just shy of 6.0 walks and almost two home runs per nine innings with opponents averaging 5.43 runs off of him. Off last night's loss, the Brewers don't figure to be in a forgiving mood on Saturday. Note that Milwaukee should also have the edge in the later innings as its bullpen entered last night's game sporting a 1.21 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Jays 'pen recorded a 7.29 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Milwaukee (8*). |
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06-25-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the half-run with the White Sox in the first five innings against the Orioles on Saturday as they look to get back on track after dropping the first two games of this series in somewhat embarrassing fashion. Spenser Watkins gets a spot start for the Orioles. He's made eight previous starts this season and they haven't gone well. Watkins checks in sporting a 6.15 FIP and 1.70 WHIP. You could argue that we're talking about a fairly small sample size but it's worth noting that Watkins also posted a 6.37 FIP and 1.70 WHIP in 53 2/3 innings of work last season. His counterpart today will be veteran right-hander Lance Lynn. Lynn hasn't pitched well in his first two starts back from injury. With that being said, I think there were positives to take away from his last outing against the Blue Jays. He gave up just four hits over five innings in that contest with the Sox prevailing by an 8-7 score. The White Sox bats have certainly come alive in Lynn's previous two outings, producing a grand total of 17 runs. Lynn faced the Orioles once last year and tossed five shutout innings in an eventual 3-1 victory. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid the bullpen matchup here with the O's 'pen having posted a 1.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over its last seven games. The Chicago 'pen owns an ugly 5.37 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home this season with only nine saves converted compared to eight blown. Take Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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06-25-22 | Cubs v. Cardinals -175 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Chicago at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. The Cardinals were shut out in last night's series-opener against the Cubs - their second consecutive loss. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they have the right pitcher on the mound in Miles Mikolas. The right-hander has posted a 3.51 FIP and 0.97 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.84 runs per nine innings. In 10 career starts against Chicago, Mikolas has posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. You would have to go back four starts to find the last time the Cubs defeated the Cards with Mikolas starting, back in July 2019. Interestingly, his counterpart on that night was Kyle Hendricks, who of course locked down the Cards in last night's shutout victory. Adrian Sampson will get a spot start for Chicago after an effective extended relief appearance. In limited big league work last year, Sampson posted a terrific 2.80 ERA but his 5.72 FIP told a much different story. Prior to getting called up this season, Sampson had recorded a pedestrian 3.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 28 1/3 innings pitched at AAA Iowa. The Cardinals bullpen has been among the best in baseball lately, posting a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over the last seven games. The Cubs 'pen has been solid lately as well, but certainly hasn't been reliable on the road this season, recording a 4.78 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Take St. Louis (8*). |
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06-24-22 | Cubs v. Cardinals -151 | 3-0 | Loss | -151 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Friday. The Cubs are a mess right now and it's not just one area of the game they're struggling in. Chicago has dropped 14 of its last 17 games overall and might have hit rock-bottom in Pittsburgh this week, losing three out of four games, giving up a whopping 32 runs while committing 10 errors in the field. Things aren't likely to get any easier as they head to St. Louis to face a Cardinals club that managed a 2-2 split in Milwaukee earlier this week and checks in 8-6 over its last 14 games. Kyle Hendricks was once a steadying force in the Cubs rotation but not this season. He has posted a 5.19 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing north of 5.4 runs per nine innings. While the Cubs bullpen behind Hendricks has held up well lately, it still owns a collective 4.84 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season. Andre Pallante will get his fourth start of the season for the Cardinals. He's held up reasonably well overall this season, recording a 4.02 FIP and 1.34 WHIP. Interestingly, he's done a tremendous job of limiting damage, yielding just under 1.7 runs per nine innings. Having a tremendous defense behind him helps. I mentioned the Cubs woes in the field - on the flip side, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Cardinals committed an error. The St. Louis bullpen has posted a collective 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with eight saves converted and only two blown at home this season and has been even better lately, recording a 2.66 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over its last seven games. Take St. Louis (8*). |
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06-24-22 | Rockies v. Twins OVER 9 | 1-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Colorado and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games yesterday. I expect a much different story to unfold on Friday but rather than play the full game 'over' the total, we'll look at the first five innings only as I really like the way this starting pitching matchup sets up for the hitters. German Marquez will take the ball for Colorado. To say that he's struggled this season would be an understatement. Marquez enters Friday's start sporting a 4.89 FIP and 1.55 WHIP. Opponents are laying waste to the veteran right-hander to the tune of 6.9 runs per nine innings. Of course, the Twins aren't in much better shape on the mound with Dylan Bundy getting the nod. He did turn in his best outing of the season last time out against Arizona. However, the full season numbers tell the story as he has recorded a 4.52 FIP and 1.32 WHIP, allowing 5.3 runs per nine innings. Both teams enter this game having averaged 5+ runs per game over the last week. Expect early offense at Target Field on Friday. Take the first five innings over (8*). |
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06-24-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -157 | 4-1 | Loss | -157 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago first five innings over Baltimore at 8:10 pm et on Friday. After a productive three-game series against the Blue Jays earlier in the week, the White Sox were blanked in the opener of this series with the Orioles last night. I look for them to get back on track on Friday, at least early on in this rematch with Baltimore. Austin Voth will get another spot start for the Orioles. He worked just 2 2/3 innings against the Rays last Sunday and not a lot will likely be asked of him here either. I do expect the White Sox bats to get to him, however, noting that Voth has posted an ugly 4.71 FIP and 2.03 WHIP in 24 2/3 innings of work this season with opponents averaging a whopping 8.76 runs per nine innings against him. Note that while Voth managed to get through 2 2/3 innings relatively unscathed against the Rays last time out, things might have been different were the Rays not thrown at home on a play in the second inning. Chicago will counter with Michael Kopech. While he's had some command issues at times, he has still recorded a terrific 0.99 WHIP to go along with a 3.49 FIP. I mentioned the command issues as Kopech is yielding 4.0 walks per nine innings but he's managed to limit the damage (he allows just 2.7 runs per nine innings) thanks to holding opponents to just under 5.0 hits and 0.6 home runs per nine innings. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as the O's do hold a significant advantage when it comes to the bullpens in this game (Baltimore's bullpen has a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games while Chicago's relief corps' has posted a 4.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the same stretch). Take Chicago first five innings (8*). |
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06-24-22 | Nationals +154 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 154 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Nationals as they look to bounce back from a shutout loss in Baltimore (we won with the Orioles in that game) and start this three-game interleague set in Texas with a victory on Friday. The starting pitching matchup will feature Paolo Espino of the Nationals against Dane Dunning for the Rangers. While Dunning had a terrific campaign last year, he's struggled here in 2022. The right-hander enters Friday's start with a 4.00 FIP and 1.33 WHIP, allowing 4.5 runs per nine innings. You would have to go back three home starts to find the last time he was on the hill for a Rangers win here in Texas. Espino will get another spot start for the Nats. While he's made only two starts, he has worked 35 1/3 innings this season, posting a solid 3.39 FIP and 1.08 WHIP. Opponents have reached Espino for just north of 2.5 runs per nine innings. While the Nationals bullpen has been awful on the road for the most part this season, it has shown signs of turning things around lately, recording a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over the last seven games overall. The Rangers 'pen has converted only eight saves while blowing six here at home this season. As poorly as things have gone for Washington, it actually averages more runs per game on the road (4.4) than Texas does at home (4.2). Finally, I'll note that Texas checks in a woeful 14-23 in its last 37 games as a favorite, outscored by 0.9 runs on average along the way. Take Washington (10*). |
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06-24-22 | Pirates v. Rays -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Pirates have enjoyed an offensive surge lately, keyed by some top prospect call-ups. While they prevailed by an 8-7 score against the Cubs yesterday, they're just a day removed from a 14-5 loss. I believe the Rays have a significant starting pitching advantage here with Jeffrey Springs taking the ball against Mitch Keller for the Buccos. Springs checks in with a terrific 2.98 FIP and 0.98 WHIP this season, allowing only 2.0 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a Rays bullpen that has posted a collective 2.85 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home this season. Keller has managed to string together a number of quality starts but I'm not sure his success is sustainable. Note that he owns a 4.25 FIP and 1.44 WHIP this season, giving up just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings. While the Rays offense has been somewhat disappointing, particularly at home, the Pirates average just 3.2 runs per game on the road. Also note that the Pittsburgh bullpen has been shaky at best lately, recording a 5.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over their last seven games. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-24-22 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series last night as three early home runs ultimately resulted in a high-scoring affair (we did win with the Yankees in comeback fashion). I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Friday, however, as we have a terrific pitching matchup between Justin Verlander of the Astros and Luis Severino of the Yankees. Verlander has come back strong this season, posting a 3.40 FIP and 0.89 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.0 runs per nine innings. I like the bounce-back spot for him here after he struggled over 3 2/3 innings in a 7-0 loss to the White Sox last time out. Note that Verlander owns a 2.15 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in seven road outings this season. It's a similar story for Severino. He has recorded a 3.72 FIP and 1.06 WHIP this season, giving up only 3.4 runs per nine innings. Like Verlander, he looks to bounce back from a shaky outing as he gave up five earned runs over five innings against the Blue Jays in his most recent start. Behind the two starters are two strong bullpens that, despite the Astros coughing up a late three-run lead last night, have performed well lately. Houston's 'pen still owns a 2.52 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. The Yanks relief corps' has posted a 3.43 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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06-23-22 | Phillies v. Padres -140 | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Philadelphia at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. While we did back Ranger Suarez in his most recent start - a victory over the Washington Nationals last week - I won’t hesitate to switch gears and fade the right-hander as he takes the mound against the Padres on Thursday. Suarez hasn’t been able to regain the form that saw him excel in the Philadelphia rotation last year. He checks in sporting a 4.25 FIP and 1.51 WHIP with opponents averaging just a tick below 5.0 runs per nine innings against him. In stark contrast, Padres starter Joe Musgrove has firmly planted himself in the early N.L. Cy Young Award conversation, posting a 2.66 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. Opponents are averaging barely north of 2.0 runs per nine innings against him. Of course, the later innings should belong to the Padres pitching staff in this one as well as their bullpen has been excellent this season, particularly at home where they’ve posted a collective 3.04 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with seven saves converted and only three blown (entering yesterday’s action). The Phillies ‘pen remains a work-in-progress, recording a 4.65 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road this season. Take San Diego (8*). |
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06-23-22 | Orioles v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. This is a better starting pitching matchup than perhaps it first appears on paper. Dean Kremer will make his third start of the season for Baltimore. He struggled during his time in the bigs last year but has shown improvement here in 2022, posting a 3.45 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in limited work (15 1/3 innings). Quietly, the O’s have had one of the better bullpens in baseball this season, having recorded a collective 3.19 ERA and 1.22 WHIP (entering last night’s action). Veteran Johnny Cueto will counter for the White Sox. I hesitate to say that he’s ‘turned back the clock’ as he’s actually been getting it done for years’. Cueto owns a 3.64 FIP and 1.10 WHIP in 42 2/3 innings pitched this season. Opponents have managed to plate less than 3.2 runs per nine innings off of him. The White Sox bullpen hasn’t been all that reliable this season but has shown signs of turning it around lately, entering yesterday’s contest sporting a collective 3.49 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over their previous seven games. Take the under (8*). |
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06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. When most think of this matchup they think about the explosive offenses. I’m anticipating a contest dominated by pitching in Thursday’s series-opener, however. Astros starter Framber Valdez is often overshadowed by Justin Verlander at the front of the rotation but Valdez has been every bit as good this season, posting a 3.31 FIP and 1.15 WHIP, allowing just a shade north of 3.1 runs per nine innings. He catches the Yankees returning home on no rest following consecutive road series’ against the division rival Blue Jays and Rays. Jameson Taillon continues to impress for the Yankees. He checks in with a 3.00 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season. While he has allowed over eight hits per nine innings, he’s managed to keep opposing lineups in check by yielding just 1.1 walk and 0.7 home runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have been terrific this season and certainly of late with the Yanks ‘pen having posted a 1.11 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action) and the Astros relief corps’ having recorded a 1.07 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (9*). |
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06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees -121 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Houston at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Yankees in thrilling come-from-behind fashion last night and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them as they return home to host the Houston Astros on Thursday. We have a fine starting pitching matchup between left-hander Framber Valdez of the Astros and righty Jameson Taillon of the Yankees in this series-opener. There's not a lot to separate the two starters this season but here we'll find reason to give the edge to Taillon. Note that he has posted a terrific 3.01 FIP and 1.06 WHIP this season. While Valdez has had some issues with command at times, issuing north of 3.0 walks per nine innings, Taillon has been in complete control, allowing just 1.1 walk per nine innings. Opponents are averaging just 2.7 runs per nine innings off of Taillon this season. Of course, the Yankees have been dominant at home (and just about everywhere else) this season, going 29-7 while averaging 5.0 runs per game in the Bronx. Their +145 run differential is more than 2X greater than all but the Dodgers (they're +124). While the Astros hold down the A.L. West Division lead by a comfortable margin, they've only outscored the opposition by 61 runs on the campaign. Take New York (10*). |
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06-23-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Reds | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. The Dodgers haven’t been doing Clayton Kershaw any favors since he returned from the I.L., producing only three runs in his last two starts, both resulting in losses. Kershaw does continue to pitch well, having posted a 2.61 FIP and 0.85 WHIP this season. He’ll face a Reds team that had won just seven of 19 games against left-handed starters this season entering last night’s game against fellow lefty Tyler Anderson. Reds starter Hunter Greene is averaging just 5.0 innings per start this season which doesn’t bode well as the Cincinnati bullpen behind him has struggled, recording a collective 5.69 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with just four saves converted and four blown at home this season (entering last night’s action). Greene himself has had a tough time as well, posting a 5.29 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. He’s allowed 1.7 more home runs and 2.5 more walks per nine innings compared to Kershaw this season. Opponents are averaging 5.4 runs per nine innings against the rookie. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (9*). |
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06-23-22 | Giants v. Braves -158 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over San Francisco at 12:20 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the Braves in Thursday’s series finale against the Giants. As is often the case, we’re able to get behind Atlanta starter Kyle Wright at a very reasonable price. He’s pitched well this season, recording a 2.70 FIP and 1.10 WHIP with opponents reaching him for less than 3.2 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Thursday will be Alex Wood, who broke into the bigs with the Braves. Wood has been up-and-down, posting a 3.28 FIP and 1.31 WHIP. Opponents are averaging just shy of 4.5 runs per nine innings off of him. His 5.25 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in five previous daytime starts is concerning, as is the fact that he’ll be facing a Braves club that entered last night’s game against southpaw Carlos Rodon having gone 16-7 while averaging 6.0 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Take Atlanta (9*). |
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06-22-22 | Royals v. Angels -1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Angels to finally answer back with Shohei Ohtani on the mound on Wednesday. Ohtani barely broke a sweat in his most recent outing, allowing just three hits over six innings of shutout ball in Seattle. The Angels have now won each of Ohtani's last two starts and all five of their victories with him on the hill this season have come by at least three runs. Shohei enters Wednesday's start sporting a terrific 3.09 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. His counterpart on Wednesday will be left hander Daniel Lynch. He was terrific in his most recent start but that came against the light-hitting A's in Oakland. Note that he will be pitching on just four days' rest here after notching a season-high 10 strikeouts in that five-inning effort in Oakland. Lynch checks in with a 4.50 FIP and 1.53 WHIP this season. Despite shining in his most recent start, Lynch has allowed north of 5.3 runs per nine innings this season. While last night's game was a wild, high-scoring affair, the Angels bullpen continues to hold up better than expected - at least recently - posting a collective 3.37 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over their last seven contests. The Royals 'pen has been terrific lately as well, but is nothing to write home about on the road, where it has recorded a 4.22 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (6*). |
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06-22-22 | Guardians v. Twins -145 | 11-10 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Twins last night as they rallied late but they coughed up a two-run lead before falling in 11 innings. I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them on Wednesday, however. We have a fine starting pitching matchup in this one as the Guardians send Triston McKenzie to the hill against Sonny Gray of the Twins. McKenzie has generally pitched well this season but continues to have a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings including 10 over his last six outings. The Twins have hit 48 home runs in 35 games at home this season compared to just 30 in 34 road contests. Note also that McKenzie has posted a 1-3 team record in four career starts against Minnesota. Twins starter Sonny Gray has 'turned back the clock' this season, posting a terrific 2.74 FIP and 0.93 WHIP in 38 2/3 innings of work. Opponents are averaging just under 2.1 runs per nine innings against the veteran right hander. You would have to go back five starts to find the last time Cleveland defeated Gray. The Guardians may have a slight edge in terms of the two bullpens although it's been virtually a wash as far as the numbers go over the last seven games with Cleveland's 'pen posting a 1.12 WHIP and Minnesota countering with a 1.08 WHIP. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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06-22-22 | Guardians v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a relatively high-scoring extra innings affair last night as the two bullpens took turns coughing up leads late. Generally speaking, both relief corps' have been solid this season, however, and I look for a lower-scoring contest on Wednesday. Triston McKenzie gets the call for the visiting Guardians. He checks in with a 4.37 FIP, largely due to his struggles with keeping the ball in the park. Outside of his 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings, his numbers are terrific, most notably a 0.93 WHIP and just 2.96 runs allowed per nine innings. Sonny Gray will counter for the Twins. He's having an even better season than McKenzie, albeit with a smaller sample size (he's missed some time due to injury). Gray checks in with a terrific 2.74 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. Opponents have averaged just 2.09 runs per nine innings off of him this season. As I mentioned, last night's contest notwithstanding, the two bullpens have been solid this season. Cleveland's 'pen has posted a 2.02 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over its last seven games while Minnesota's relief corps' sports a 3.12 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-22 | Yankees -134 v. Rays | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rays evened this series at a game apiece with a narrow victory last night. I look for the Yankees to answer back on Wednesday. Jordan Montgomery is sometimes the forgotten arm in the Yankees outstanding starting rotation. He's coming off another fine outing against a tough Blue Jays lineup in Toronto and checks in sporting a 3.54 FIP and 0.95 WHIP in 72 2/3 innings of work this season. Opponents are averaging a paltry 2.7 runs per nine innings off the left-hander. Tampa Bay will give Shane Baz another turn in the rotation on Wednesday. The Yankees did see him once last season, chasing him after only 2 2/3 innings. Baz has worked only 8 1/3 innings this season so you can take his 3.97 FIP and 0.96 WHIP with a grain of salt as far as I'm concerned. Note that his walks have already crept up, averaging 3.2 per nine innings while opponents have averaged 5.4 runs per nine innings off of him. The bullpens have virtually been a wash lately but I believe the Yankees starting pitching and hitting edges should be enough here. Take New York (8*). |
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06-22-22 | Nationals v. Orioles -140 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Baltimore over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Nationals shut out the Orioles in the opener of this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as Baltimore holds a substantial starting pitching edge. You have to wonder how many more opportunities we'll get to fade Nationals starter Patrick Corbin. He checks in sporting a 4.83 FIP and 1.78 WHIP this season, allowing just shy of 7.9 runs per nine innings. The Orioles aren't exactly tearing the cover off the baseball right now but they do average 4.4 runs per game against left-handed starters this season, going 13-13 compared to 17-26 against right-handers. Tyler Wells will counter for Baltimore. He has posted a 4.31 FIP and 1.07 WHIP, allowing 4.7 fewer hits and 1.7 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Corbin. The O's should have the edge in the later innings as well as their bullpen has been terrific lately, recording a collective 1.63 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over their last seven games. The Washington 'pen sports a 6.10 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the road this season. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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06-22-22 | Phillies -130 v. Rangers | 2-4 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia first five innings over Texas at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers crushed the Phillies by a 7-0 score last night, handing Philadelphia its second straight loss. I look for the Phillies to bounce back on Wednesday afternoon, at least early on. Philadelphia has a substantial edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup with Zack Wheeler taking the ball against Jon Gray of the Rangers. Wheeler has been his usual dominant self this season, posting a 2.31 FIP and 1.04 WHIP. Opponents are reaching him for just north of 2.9 runs per nine innings. While Jon Gray comes off consecutive solid outings, that's about as much as we can expect from the veteran right-hander. Note that he has recorded a 3.36 FIP and 1.20 WHIP, allowing just shy of 4.3 runs per nine innings. Gray checks in allowing 1.5 additional walks per nine innings compared to Wheeler. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid tempting fate with a Phillies bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 4.39 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with six blown saves (compared to eight converted) on the road this season. Take Philadelphia first five innings (10*). |
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06-22-22 | Blue Jays -108 v. White Sox | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Jays have dropped the first two games in this series and while Ross Stripling might not appear to be the right starter to turn things around on Wednesday, I actually like the matchup here. Stripling has held up well as a back-of-the-rotation option this season, recording a 2.98 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. He ran into trouble in his most recent outing but that came against the hot-hitting Yankees. Here, he'll have the benefit of starting against the White Sox for the first time in his career. Lucas Giolito will get the start for Chicago. His FIP has climbed all the way to 4.86 while his WHIP sits at 1.49. Giolito probably carries a more favorable reputation than Stripling but the numbers don't bear out such a stance this season, noting that he's allowed 1.9 more hits, 1.4 more home runs and 2.0 more walks per nine innings compared to Stripling this season. Behind Stripling is a Blue Jays bullpen that coughed up a ninth-inning lead last night and has generally struggled lately. However, it's worth noting that the White Sox 'pen hasn't exactly been lights out at home this season, posting a collective 5.51 ERA and 1.61 WHIP with nine saves converted and eight blown. Take Toronto (8*). |
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06-21-22 | Mariners -137 v. A's | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners may be struggling but a trip to Oakland to face the lowly A’s should help them bust out of their slump. Marco Gonzales will take the ball for Seattle on Tuesday. His numbers aren’t great this season by any means but they’re without question superior to those of Tuesday's opposing starter, James Kaprielian. Gonzales has recorded a 5.42 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while Kaprielian checks in with a 6.49 FIP and 1.50 WHIP. The Mariners left-hander should be happy to see the A's, noting that he owns a career 1.17 WHIP in 15 starts against them with Seattle winning 10 of those games. Kaprielian had a nice rookie campaign last season but hasn't been able to get on track in 2022, particularly at home where he owns a 7.42 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in four starts, spanning only 17 innings of work. While the team has had a tough time, Seattle’s bullpen has held up well recently, entering this series with a 1.00 WHIP over its last seven games. The Mariners bats have been quiet but their 3.8 per game scoring average away from home this season is still far better than Oakland’s 2.4 runs per contest at home. Noting that Seattle is 9-3 in its last 12 games played here in Oakland, I look for it to take advantage of this opportunity to right the ship, even just for one night, on Tuesday. Take Seattle (10*). |
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06-21-22 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. While he’s been up-and-down lately, Jays starter Kevin Gausman owns an excellent track record this season, posting an incredible 1.75 FIP through his first 13 starts. He allows too many hits (10.0 per nine innings) but makes up for it by limiting his walks (1.4 per nine innings) and putting up nice strikeout totals (just shy of 10.0 per nine innings). His counterpart on Tuesday will be Dylan Cease. He’s had the opposite problem, issuing more than four walks but limiting opponents to only 7.7 hits per nine innings. He has posted a solid 2.78 FIP this season. Cease enters this outing in terrific form, having not allowed an earned run over his last four starts, covering a span of 21 1/3 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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06-21-22 | Cardinals -125 v. Brewers | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
My selection is on St. Louis first five innings over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the Cardinals in the first five innings only in this game as the Brewers do hold advantages in the later innings in this one with a bullpen that has posted a collective 0.00 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over their last seven contests. In the early innings, I expect it to be all Cards as they give Jack Flaherty his second start since returning from the I.L. on Tuesday. Flaherty wasn't particularly effective in his first outing against the Pirates last week but did get loose with a three-inning outing, allowing three hits, two walks, two earned runs while striking out three. I expect him to work a little deeper into this contest and I'm confident he can handle the Brewers lineup, noting that he faced them twice last season, allowing just two earned runs in 12 innings. Milwaukee will trot out waiver-wire pick-up Chi Chi Gonzalez. He'll be pitching for his third club since last season after getting cut loose by the Rockies and Twins. Neither of those teams have particularly strong pitching staffs to begin with so the fact that he was unable to stick should raise red flags. He's only in Milwaukee out of necessity as the Brewers have Freddy Peralta on the I.L. Gonzalez owns a career 5.37 FIP and 1.50 WHIP. In two starts with the Twins this season he was tagged for 12 hits and six earned runs over seven innings of work. The Cards bats were quiet against Corbin Burnes last night but I look for them to come alive early in this one. Take St. Louis first five innings (10*). |
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06-21-22 | Phillies v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This game features a pair of ‘bet-on’ veteran starting pitchers - at least this season - in Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez and I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair. First, let’s talk about the bullpens. The Phillies got a much-needed day off on Monday - their first since June 6th. Their ‘pen has admittedly struggled but that day off should serve them well entering this series against the Rangers. Texas’ relief corps’ has been fairly reliable, recording a collective 1.09 WHIP over its last seven games and a 3.88 ERA and 1.20 WHIP at home this season. Back to the starters, Gibson owns a 3.59 FIP and 1.22 WHIP this season, allowing just north of four runs per nine innings. He’s coming off a quality outing against Miami in which he gave up just one earned run over eight innings. Martin Perez is having a career year, recording a 2.10 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through his first 13 starts this season. That’s not to mention a 2.62 FIP, yielding less than 2.7 runs per nine innings. Take the under (8*). |
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06-21-22 | Guardians v. Twins -160 | 6-5 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. Aaron Civale is expected to make his return from a thigh injury as the Guardians open a series in Minnesota on Tuesday. Civale wasn’t pitching particularly well prior to going down to injury, recording a 4.97 FIP and 1.52 WHIP in seven starts. Opponents have run up the score against him, averaging a ridiculous 9.0 runs per nine innings. Twins starter Joe Ryan knows a thing or two about returning from injury as he did so in his last start against the Mariners last week. Ryan checks in with a respectable 3.73 FIP and 1.02 WHIP, allowing a whopping 4.6 hits fewer per nine innings compared to Civale this season. We’re not talking about all that different of a sample size as Ryan has made just two more starts than Civale. Also worth noting, opponents are averaging fewer than 3.0 runs per nine innings off of Ryan this season. The Guardians are playing well for sure, but I’m willing to bet the Twins cool them off at Target Field on Tuesday. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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06-21-22 | Cubs v. Pirates -150 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We’ll fade Matt Swarmer again here, just as we did in his last outing, as he makes is fifth start of the season. The rookie right-hander has posted an ugly 8.74 FIP through his first 20+ innings of work this season, allowing north of four home runs and 6.5 runs per nine innings. It’s been a much different story for Pirates starter Roansy Contreras as he’s been making the most of his opportunities, recording a 3.87 FIP while allowing only 3.9 runs per nine innings through eight appearances including five starts. While far from dominant, the right-hander has done a nice job of keeping his team in the game in all five of his starts this season. The Buccos should also have the advantage in the later innings in this one as Chicago’s bullpen entered this series sporting a collective 9.64 ERA and 1.93 WHIP over its last seven games, covering a span of 28 innings. The Cubs are a losing team on the road this season and I expect them to fall short again here. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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06-20-22 | Royals v. Angels -180 | 6-2 | Loss | -180 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Kansas City at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Angels have quietly gotten back on track following a miserable stretch, winning four of their last five games entering Monday's series opener against the Royals. They'll have a considerable edge in terms of the starting pitchers in this one as they send Noah Syndergaard to the mound against Kris Bubic of the Royals. Syndergaard has turned in a couple of shaky outings but for the most part, has delivered for his new club, posting a 3.72 FIP and 1.18 WHIP. He's been at his best here at home, where he checks in sporting a 1.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in five starts spanning 30 1/3 innings. His counterpart on Monday hasn't been nearly as effective. Bubic owns an ugly 5.66 FIP and 1.89 WHIP. Opponents are lighting him up to the tune of 8.4 runs per nine innings. While the Angels bats have been relatively quiet aside from Mike Trout, I look for a breakout performance against the Royals pitching staff here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-20-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Cardinals enter Monday's series-opener in Milwaukee on the heels of five consecutive 'over' results. I expect a different story to unfold here, however, as we have a terrific starting pitching matchup featuring Miles Mikolas - who fell just short of delivering a no-hitter in his last start - and Corbin Burnes, fresh off a masterful performance against a tough Mets lineup last time out. Mikolas owns a 3.36 FIP and 0.97 WHIP this season and will be starting on a full five days' rest on Monday. Opponents are averaging just 2.8 runs per nine innings against him this season. While the Cards have lost three of their last four games, their bullpen hasn't been to blame. They entered yesterday's action sporting a 2.45 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over their last seven games. Corbin Burnes hasn't dominated the way he did last season but has still posted a terrific 3.08 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season. I mentioned his last start against the Mets, it's worth noting that he didn't issue a walk for the first time in five starts in that outing. Burnes has been at his best against division opponents this season, recording a 2.42 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in four starts against the N.L. Central. Incredibly, the Brewers bullpen hasn't allowed a single earned run over its last eight games. Take the under (10*). |
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06-20-22 | Giants v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Monday. This is the best starting pitching matchup on Monday's board as the Giants send Logan Webb to the hill against Max Fried of the Braves. Webb has posted a 3.08 FIP and 1.18 WHIP this season. Better still, he has recorded a 1.08 WHIP on the road this season. He's also coming off his best start of the campaign as he tossed seven shutout innings against the Royals last week. Fried has been even better, posting a 2.80 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season. He wasn't at his best in his most recent start but now he gets to pitch on a full five days' rest again and I expect him to hold the Giants bats in check. Note that opponents are averaging just a shade over 3.0 runs per nine innings against Fried this season. Beyond Webb and Fried, both bullpens have excelled lately, posting sub-2.00 ERA's over the last week. Take the under (10*). |
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06-20-22 | Tigers v. Red Sox -173 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. While the Tigers are coming off consecutive wins, those came at the expense of one of the league's most disappointing teams in the Texas Rangers. Detroit still checks in just 2-6 over its last eight games and 9-18 on the road this season, where it averages just 2.3 runs per game. Boston has been arguably the best team in baseball since mid-May and is fresh off another series victory over the Cardinals. While the Red Sox wouldn't appear to have any sort of substantial edge in terms of tonight's starting pitching matchup, I'm comfortable supporting rookie Josh Winckowski in his third start of the season. I like the fact that his two previous starts have also come at Fenway Park. He certainly looked comfortable pitching here last time out as he tossed five shutout innings against the A's and will face a similar challenge against the light-hitting Tigers here. Alex Faedo counters for Detroit. He owns a 4.40 FIP and 1.40 WHIP this season. This will be arguably his toughest test to date and he'll be starting on just four days' rest after getting lit up to the tune of seven earned runs on nine hits over three innings against the White Sox last time out. While the Tigers bullpen was one of their only redeeming qualities earlier in the season, it has struggled lately, posting a 6.90 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over the last seven games entering yesterday's contest. Take Boston (8*). |
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06-20-22 | Marlins v. Mets -151 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Miami at 1:10 pm et on Monday. The Mets ran into the Marlins best starting pitcher yesterday in Sandy Alcantara and fell by a 6-2 score. I look for them to answer back in Monday's series-finale. While New York doesn't have a considerable starting pitcher advantage in this matchup, I do rate David Peterson slightly better than Trevor Rogers this season. Peterson checks in with a 1.33 WHIP compared to Rogers' 1.64. It's also worth noting that Peterson has allowed 2.7 fewer hits and 0.8 fewer home runs per nine innings this season. Neither starter has proven capable of working deep into ball games which could lead to a battle of the bullpens here. In that department, I do give New York the advantage as its 'pen has posted a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP here at home this season. By contrast, the Marlins relief corps has posted a 5.09 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with eight blown saves compared to nine converted on the road this season. Take New York (8*). |
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06-18-22 | Phillies -208 v. Nationals | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Washington at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. The Phillies will hand the ball to Aaron Nola on Saturday afternoon as the Nationals counter with Josiah Gray. Nola has quietly put together a fine campaign so far, recording a 3.09 FIP and 0.89 WHIP in 13 starts. Gray has been a train wreck for the Nats and is fortunate to get another turn in the rotation. He has posted a 5.43 FIP and 1.32 WHIP, allowing a whopping 4.2 walks per nine innings while giving up just shy of 4.5 runs per nine innings. Philadelphia entered yesterday's double-header averaging 5.5 runs per game on the road this season while the Nats averaged just 3.6 runs per contest at home. Take Philadelphia (6*). |
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06-18-22 | Rays -159 v. Orioles | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Baltimore at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Orioles have been a 'tough out' all season and proved to be so again last night as they outlasted the Rays by a 1-0 score. I look for the Rays to answer back on Saturday against perhaps the Orioles weakest starting pitcher in Kyle Bradish. Bradish owns a 5.61 FIP and 1.67 WHIP this season. His counterpart on Saturday will be Jeffrey Springs, who has recorded a 3.16 FIP and 0.91 WHIP. Springs has given up 5.4 fewer hits and 1.4 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Bradish this season. Note that Bradish is allowing a whopping 7.1 runs per nine innings. Tampa Bay has now lost four games in a row but if they're to break that skid in Baltimore, this looks like the best matchup to do so. Note that despite the 1-0 loss last night, the Rays are still 28-8 in their last 36 matchups with Baltimore. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-18-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Yankees bats came alive against back-of-the-rotation starter Ross Stripling and the Blue Jays bullpen last night. I do look for Alek Manoah to do a better job of keeping them in check on Saturday. Note that Manoah has posted a 2.95 FIP and 0.91 WHIP this season. His counterpart on Saturday has been almost as good in Jameson Taillon of the Yankees. He has recorded a 3.15 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. Better still, Taillon owns a 1.01 WHIP in 27 2/3 innings of work on the road this season while Manoah has posted a ridiculous 0.74 WHIP in 40 1/3 innings pitched at home. All due respect to both offenses in this matchup but I think we're in for a pitcher's duel. Take the under (8*). |
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06-17-22 | Twins -128 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -128 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Twins continue to quietly rack up victories, now nine games over .500 on the season. They'll hand the ball to left-hander Devin Smeltzer on Friday as he looks to continue what has been a terrific 2022 campaign to this point. While Smeltzer isn't flashy by any means - he isn't going to set opposing lineups on fire with strikeouts - he has been consistently delivering, posting a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his last three starts. His 4.91 FIP leaves a lot to be desired but his 0.97 WHIP tells a different story. The fact is, opponents have averaged just 2.38 runs per nine innings off of the southpaw this season. D'Backs veteran starter Madison Bumgarner got off to a nice start this season but has been unsteady lately, recording a 3.94 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over his last three trips to the hill. His FIP has ballooned north of 5.0 and opponents are averaging 4.2 runs per nine innings against him. He checks in allowing 2.1 more hits and 0.7 more walks per nine innings compared to Smeltzer. Both bullpens have held up well lately but I give the Twins offense a considerable edge in this matchup, noting that they average 4.5 runs per game on the road this season while the Snakes check in averaging just 3.7 runs per contest at home. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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06-17-22 | White Sox v. Astros -166 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The White Sox absolutely laid waste to a reeling Tigers club in a three-game series earlier this week. I expect them to find the going a little tougher in Houston, however. Lucas Giolito has had a tough time regaining past form here in 2022, posting a 4.44 FIP and 1.44 WHIP, giving up well north of 4.0 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, Astros starter Framber Valdez has been the picture of consistency, checking in with a 2.14 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over his last three outings. For the season, Valdez has recorded a 3.36 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. He's giving up 2.5 fewer hits and 1.5 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Giolito. We'll give the Astros bullpen the edge here as well as they've posted a collective 2.66 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 17 saves converted and only four blown this season. Take Houston (8*). |
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06-17-22 | Cardinals v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Adam Wainwright has turned back the clock for the Cardinals this season, entering Friday's start on the heels of three straight outings lasting exactly seven innings, allowing just five earned runs over that stretch. He's posted a 3.51 FIP this season with opponents averaging just under 3.0 runs per nine innings against him. It's been a similar story for Red Sox starter Michael Wacha. The former Cardinal has recorded a 3.96 FIP and a 1.00 WHIP, giving up only 2.7 runs per nine innings. Wacha did labor through his most recent start but that came on the road. Here at Fenway Park he has posted a 0.86 ERA to go along with an identical 0.86 WHIP in four starts spanning 21 innings of work this season. Take the under (8*). |
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06-17-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | 12-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Yankees are coming off a string of low-scoring games this week and I expect to chalk up another on Friday as they head north to face the Blue Jays. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for New York. He has been quietly effective this season, posting a 3.46 FIP and 0.98 WHIP. Opponents are scoring just 2.7 runs per nine innings against the left-hander. In eight career starts against the Jays he has posted a 3.51 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Ross Stripling gets another turn in the rotation for the Blue Jays. To say that he's pitched well this season would be an understatement. He's exceeded expectations in what was supposed to only be a spot starting role, recording a 2.98 FIP and 1.00 WHIP. Like Montgomery he's done a tremendous job of keeping runs off the board, allowing only 3.35 runs per nine innings. With both bullpens capable of pitching effectively in the late innings, we'll confidently back the 'under' at a very generous number here. Take the under (8*). |
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06-17-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Washington at 1:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the Phillies last night as they trounced the Nationals in the opener of this series. I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them on Friday afternoon in Game 1 of the day-night double-header. Ranger Suarez will take the ball for Philadelphia. His numbers certainly don't jump off the page this season, but they're far superior to those of Nationals starter Joan Adon, who inexplicably remains in the rotation despite a 6.95 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Suarez checks in with a sub-4.00 career FIP with that number sitting at 4.17 this season. Again, his numbers don't really pop but Adon has allowed north of 10 hits and just shy of six walks, not to mention 7.3 runs per nine innings. Of course, starting pitching is only part of the equation and right now the Phillies are locked in at the plate, entering last night's game hitting .285 as a team over the last week. They also entered last night's action averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road while the Nats average just 3.7 runs per contest at home. While the Phillies bullpen is always a concern, I expect them to do enough offensively that it won't matter on Friday afternoon. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-16-22 | Brewers v. Mets -128 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Brewers smashed the Mets by a 10-2 score last night, taking full advantage of a pitching mismatch that featured Corbin Burnes against David Peterson. Here, the starting pitching matchup is virtually a wash, but I prefer backing the Mets bats, at home no less, where they've generally been dominant this season and have certainly thrived in a bounce-back role. I like the improvement we've seen from Mets starter Tylor Megill following his rookie campaign. He's posted a 3.56 FIP and 1.18 WHIP, going 4-2 in eight outings. Aaron Ashby has posted similar numbers in his sophomore campaign for the Brewers but his 4.1 walks per nine innings, not to mention his reliance on strikeouts (11 per nine innings) concern me. Take New York (8*). |
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06-16-22 | Rangers -134 v. Tigers | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers are coming off a tough series against the Astros, including a beatdown on Wednesday. I look for them to bounce back with a rejuvenated Martin Perez taking the hill in Detroit on Thursday. Perez has done more than just turn back the clock this season as he's never looked as good as he has in 2022. He checks into Thursday's start sporting a 2.72 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. He's allowed just 0.2 home runs per nine innings and should relish the opportunity to face the light-hitting Tigers here. Beau Brieske will counter for Detroit. He won his first career game against Toronto last time out but I suspect he'll have difficult stringing together another quality outing here. Note that Brieske has recorded a poor 6.06 FIP in nine starts spanning 47 2/3 innings of work this season and faces a Rangers lineup that has performed better on the road than at home this season. Take Texas (10*). |
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06-16-22 | Phillies -200 v. Nationals | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Phillies just keep finding ways to win while the Nationals are about as down-trodden as it gets following a series sweep at the hands of another N.L. East opponent, the red hot Atlanta Braves. I like the starting pitching edge the Phils hold in the opener of this series on Thursday as they send Zack Wheeler to the hill against Pat Corbin. Wheeler finished second in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and he's picked up right where he left off this season, recording a 2.13 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. Contrast that with Corbin, who owns a 4.56 FIP and 1.73 WHIP, allowing north of 12 hits while walking 3.5 batters per nine innings. While backing the Phillies bullpen is rarely fun, I'm not sure their relief corps will be asked to do too much on Thursday. Take Philadelphia (6*). |
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06-16-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Baltimore at 3:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jays have taken two of the first three games in this series after an extra innings victory last night. While Kevin Gausman dealt with possible pitch-tipping against the Twins a couple of starts back, he settled right back in against the Tigers last time out. He has posted a ridiculous 1.76 FIP this season, indicating his 5-5 win-loss record doesn't tell the whole story. While Gausman has yielded north of nine hits per nine innings, he's made up for it by limiting opponents to 1.3 walks and striking out just shy of 10 batters per nine frames. Tyler Wells has held his own for the Orioles but his numbers pale in comparison to those of the veteran Gausman. While the O's have managed to take one game already in this series and generally prove to be a 'tough out', I expect the Blue Jays to build off last night's walk-off win with a convincing series-clinching victory on Thursday. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-16-22 | Padres -192 v. Cubs | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Thursday. The Padres have been beating up on the Cubs all week long at Wrigley Field and I expect nothing different on Thursday. San Diego once again has a considerable starting pitching edge here with early N.L. Cy Young candidate Joe Musgrove taking the hill. He's enjoying a career year, having posted a 2.66 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. It quite simply doesn't get much better. While Cubs starter Matt Swarmer has made only three starts spanning 17 innings of work, his 8.79 FIP is alarming. He's been getting crushed by the long ball, allowing just shy of five home runs per nine innings. While those numbers are sure to come down as he gets more work in, I'm still not convinced he can outduel Musgrove or quiet the Padres hot bats on Thursday. Take San Diego (6*). |
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06-15-22 | Braves -170 v. Nationals | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Another tough matchup for the Nationals on Wednesday as they send Erick Fedde to the mound against Braves impressive rookie starter Spencer Strider. Fedder is having another difficult campaign having posted a 4.56 FIP and 1.54 WHIP. That FIP actually represents an improvement over his career mark of 5.09. Fedde is allowing north of nine hits and four walks per nine innings which obviously spells trouble against a loaded Braves lineup, even with Ozzie Albies now on the shelf. Spencer Strider will be making his fourth start of the season and while we're talking about a relatively small sample size, his numbers are still impressive. He has recorded a 2.00 FIP to go along with a 1.12 WHIP. While his 4.5 walks per nine innings are a concern, they've been negated by his ability to strike out opposing hitters (13.4 per nine innings) and give up few hits (5.6 per nine innings). Take Atlanta (8*). |
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06-15-22 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. You won't find a better pitching matchup on Wednesday's MLB board as the Rays hand the ball to Shane McClanahan against Nestor Cortes of the Yankees. Cortes has really come into his own this season, posting a 2.85 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. His 5-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio is impressive but pales in comparison to that of McClanahan, who has recorded a 7.5-1 K:BB ratio. McClanahan also owns a 2.45 FIP and 0.86 WHIP. The deeper you go with both starters, the more impressive the numbers get. While we are dealing with a relatively low posted total, I believe it's warranted. Take the under (8*). |
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06-15-22 | Reds v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 4-7 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. Terrific pitching matchup here as a rejuvenated Luis Castillo takes the hill for the Reds against Zac Gallen for the D'Backs. Gallen has struggled through his last few outings but what better spot to bounce back than at home against the light-hitting Reds. Cincinnati entered Tuesday's game averaging 3.0 runs per game on .211 hitting on the road this season. Gallen, despite his recent issues, still checks in with a 3.68 FIP and 1.07 WHIP this season. Castillo owns a 3.32 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. Both starters allow lees than 1.0 home run per nine innings. Take the under (8*). |
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Sean Murphy MLB Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-26-22 | Pirates v. Rays -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 110 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
06-26-22 | Astros v. Yankees -155 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
06-25-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
06-25-22 | Red Sox v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
06-25-22 | Mets -144 v. Marlins | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
06-25-22 | Blue Jays v. Brewers -151 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
06-25-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
06-25-22 | Cubs v. Cardinals -175 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
06-24-22 | Cubs v. Cardinals -151 | 3-0 | Loss | -151 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
06-24-22 | Rockies v. Twins OVER 9 | 1-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
06-24-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -157 | 4-1 | Loss | -157 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
06-24-22 | Nationals +154 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 154 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
06-24-22 | Pirates v. Rays -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
06-24-22 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
06-23-22 | Phillies v. Padres -140 | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
06-23-22 | Orioles v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees -121 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
06-23-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Reds | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
06-23-22 | Giants v. Braves -158 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
06-22-22 | Royals v. Angels -1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
06-22-22 | Guardians v. Twins -145 | 11-10 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
06-22-22 | Guardians v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
06-22-22 | Yankees -134 v. Rays | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
06-22-22 | Nationals v. Orioles -140 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
06-22-22 | Phillies -130 v. Rangers | 2-4 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
06-22-22 | Blue Jays -108 v. White Sox | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
06-21-22 | Mariners -137 v. A's | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
06-21-22 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
06-21-22 | Cardinals -125 v. Brewers | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
06-21-22 | Phillies v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
06-21-22 | Guardians v. Twins -160 | 6-5 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
06-21-22 | Cubs v. Pirates -150 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
06-20-22 | Royals v. Angels -180 | 6-2 | Loss | -180 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
06-20-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
06-20-22 | Giants v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
06-20-22 | Tigers v. Red Sox -173 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
06-20-22 | Marlins v. Mets -151 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
06-18-22 | Phillies -208 v. Nationals | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
06-18-22 | Rays -159 v. Orioles | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
06-18-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
06-17-22 | Twins -128 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -128 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
06-17-22 | White Sox v. Astros -166 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
06-17-22 | Cardinals v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
06-17-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | 12-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
06-17-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
06-16-22 | Brewers v. Mets -128 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
06-16-22 | Rangers -134 v. Tigers | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
06-16-22 | Phillies -200 v. Nationals | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
06-16-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
06-16-22 | Padres -192 v. Cubs | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
06-15-22 | Braves -170 v. Nationals | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
06-15-22 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
06-15-22 | Reds v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 4-7 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 55 m | Show |