Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-23-22 | Brewers +100 v. Padres | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Monday. I think the case can be made for the Brewers being the better team in this matchup, with the better starting pitcher on the mound, yet we're getting an underdog price as the Padres roll in off four consecutive victories capped off by a three-game sweep against the division rival Giants in San Francisco. We actually cashed a free play on the underdog Nationals in their win over the Brewers yesterday as Milwaukee looked like it had one foot already on the plane having easily won the first two games in that series against Washington. Here, we'll note that the Brewers are 12-9 on the road this season, averaging 4.1 runs per game. By contrast, the Padres are 10-7 at home, but have managed to score only 3.4 runs per contest. Brewers starter Adrian Houser has inexplicably struggled in two starts against the lowly Reds this season but has excelled against everyone else. He was a hard-luck loser against the Braves last time out, allowing just one unearned run over six innings in a 3-0 Brewers loss. Houser faced the Padres twice last season, allowing only two earned runs in 9 2/3 innings including a 4-2 Brewers victory here in San Diego. Nick Martinez gets another turn in the rotation for the Padres, out of necessity only. He's struggled to the tune of a 4.40 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season with those numbers rising to 5.22 and 1.50 in four home outings. The Brewers will be getting their first look at him here but so were the Cubs in his most recent start and they reached him for five earned runs in just four innings. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-22-22 | Padres v. Giants -126 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -126 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Padres are already 'fat and happy' having won six of eight games on their current road trip. They've already defeated Giants starter Alex Wood right here in San Francisco once this season but I don't expect them to turn the trick for a second time here. Note that Wood is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in a pair of previous afternoon outings this season. Meanwhile, Padres starter MacKenzie Gore was used out of the bullpen earlier this week in Philadelphia, missing his turn in the starting rotation. Given how well Gore has pitched as a starter this season it was a bit of a head-scratching move, although I suppose San Diego is looking to limit his workload somewhat. I think there's a good chance we see Gore a little off having not started in nearly two weeks and the Giants are fully capable of taking advantage, noting that they're putting up 5.5 runs per game, going 5-3 against left-handed starting pitching this season. San Diego has won the first two games in this series but only owns a slight 3-2 edge here in San Francisco this season and an 11-10 advantage in games played in this park over the last three seasons. Look for the Giants to answer back here. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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05-21-22 | Mariners +148 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle over Boston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mariners have dropped the first two games in this series but I look for them to answer back on Saturday afternoon at Fenway Park. Chris Flexen has received a ridiculous seven runs of support across his seven starts this season. Flexen has done his part, especially on the road where he has posted a 3.80 ERA, allowing three earned runs or less in all four of his outings. I expect the Mariners bats to finally step up for him on Saturday as they face Red Sox rookie Garrett Whitlock. He got off to a solid start this season, holding his first two opponents to just five hits and no earned runs over seven innings of work. Since then he's struggled, however, yielding seven earned runs including three home runs in 13 innings, covering a span of three starts. He'll be making just his second career start on four days' rest. The only previous time we saw him pitch on short rest he gave up a run on four hits and two walks and lasted just three innings in his lone loss of the season in Toronto. Note that the Red Sox bullpen hasn't fared particularly well in day games this season, recording a 5.53 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with just one save converted and three blown. In stark contrast, the Mariners 'pen has posted a 2.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in afternoon affairs. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-18-22 | White Sox -150 v. Royals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
A.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago first five innings over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals got the better of the White Sox in the second half of yesterday's day-night double-header but I look for Chicago to answer back, at least early on, in Wednesday's contest. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as we're not all that interested in involving a White Sox bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting an ERA north of eight and a WHIP approaching 1.80 over the last seven games. Lucas Giolito will get the start for Chicago on Wednesday. Covid quarantine gave him a couple of extra days off since his last outing, perhaps a good thing after he worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts. He was sharp last time out, allowing just one earned run over seven innings in a 4-1 victory over the Guardians. Zack Greinke will counter for Kansas City. He'll be making his second consecutive start on four days' rest and struggled in his most recent outing, allowing five earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in Colorado. He's been tagged for 18 hits and seven earned runs over his last two starts, covering a span of just 10 1/3 innings. This will be Chicago's second look at Greinke in less than a month after reaching him for three earned runs over six innings in a 7-3 victory on April 27th. Look for the Sox to improve on those numbers early in this game. Take Chicago first five innings (10*). |
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05-17-22 | Angels -121 v. Rangers | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -121 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers got the better of the Angeles in the opener of this series last night but I look for Los Angeles to answer back on Tuesday. Reid Detmers makes his return to the mound after tossing a no-hitter for the Angels in his last start. While he struggled in his first outing against the Rangers this season, allowing five earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings, he's looked like a different pitcher since, allowing only six earned runs in four starts, covering a span of 23 2/3 innings with the Angels winning three of those four games. While most will be expecting Detmers to suffer a letdown of sorts here, I believe that is more likely to happen to Rangers starter Taylor Hearn, who tossed five shutout innings last time out but will now pitch on just four days' rest. He has already made five home appearances this season and hasn't fared particularly well, recording a 3.97 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. This will be Los Angeles' fourth time facing Hearn since last September, having scored 10 runs off of him in 16 previous innings. As far as the bullpens go, the Angels relief corps has been lights out on the road this season, posting a 2.30 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown. The Rangers 'pen has recorded a 4.04 ERA and 1.27 WHIP here at home. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-14-22 | Phillies v. Dodgers -173 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -173 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Philadelphia at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers desperately need Julio Urias to give them a lift as he starts after Walker Buehler had his outing moved up and struggled in last night's eventual 12-10 loss - the Dodgers third defeat in a row and fourth out of their last five. More than anything else, I'm eager to fade Phillies starter Ranger Suarez here. He'll be starting on just four days' rest for the third time this season. In his two previous outings on short rest this season he allowed 13 hits, five earned runs and two home runs while striking out seven and walking four in 11 innings. It's not as if Los Angeles isn't hitting right now - quite the opposite, in fact. The Dodgers have racked up 31 runs over their last four games. While the Phillies are hot right now, winners of three games in a row, they're still just 7-8 on the road this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -155 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Arizona at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The D'Backs took the opener of this series last night to improve to an even 6-6 on the road this season. The Marlins didn't get a strong start from Pablo Lopez and ultimately dug too big of a hole to rally, falling just short in a 5-4 contest. After winning seven straight games, Miami has now dropped consecutive games. I look for it to bounce back here. Humberto Castellanos is expected to get the start for the D'Backs. He has turned in one good start and one bad one on the road this season but the D'Backs have lost both of those games by lopsided margins of 5-0 and 8-3. With Castellanos unlikely to work deep into this game (he's yet to last six innings in any of his 10 previous big league starts) we'll likely see plenty of a D'Backs bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 5.62 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 40 innings of work on the road this season. Left-hander Trevor Rogers projects to get the start for the Marlins in this one. He got off to a rough start through two outings this season but has since turned it around, allowing only one earned run on six hits over 11 innings in his last two outings. He should feel confident facing the D'Backs after tossing six impressive innings against them in a 5-1 win in Arizona last season. Miami's relief corps entered last night's game with a 3.12 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings pitched at home this season with three saves converted and none blown. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-02-22 | Twins -140 v. Orioles | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Twins are locked-in at the plate right now, having delivered 14, 9, 5, 9, 11, 3, 14 and 13 hits over their last eight games and even in the two outliers over that stretch they still managed to go 1-1 (they're 9-1 over their last 10 games overall). The Orioles delivered consecutive wins over a struggling Red Sox squad over the weekend but I think the win streak ends here. While I give the Twins only a slight edge in terms of starting pitching, I do think they have a more decisive advantage as far as the bullpens go with Minnesota's relief corps having posted a collective 2.28 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over its last seven games while Baltimore's 'pen has recorded a 5.83 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the same stretch. Despite their nine-run explosion yesterday, the O's are still averaging only 3.2 runs per game at home this season while Minnesota has put up 4.0 runs per contest on the road. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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04-26-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +106 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over New York at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Cardinals suffered an excruciating loss in the opener of this series last night with Nolan Arenado's ill-timed ninth inning throwing error (with two outs) ultimately leading to a 5-2 loss. I do expect them to bounce back on Tuesday as they halt their brief two-game losing streak. The Mets have won two games in a row and are off to a 3-1 start to their current road trip. Keep in mind, they're just 20-31 when coming off consecutive wins going back to last season, outscored by 0.6 runs on average in that situation. Chris Bassitt gets the start for New York. He was terrific in his first two starts this season but those came against the struggling Nationals and D'Backs. In his most recent outing he was tagged for five earned runs over six innings against the Giants. Note that the Mets bullpen has struggled on the road this season, recording a collective 4.21 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with three converted saves to go along with three blown. Jordan Hicks gets another turn in the rotation for the Cardinals. He gave up one earned runs in a short three-inning outing against the Marlins last week. He's unlikely to work deep into this game either but that's fine as the Cards 'pen has posted a 3.42 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over their last seven games. While St. Louis produced only two runs last night that wasn't unexpected as it was up against one of the best pitchers in baseball in Max Scherzer. Note that the Cards are still averaging an impressive 5.4 runs per contest at home this season. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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04-24-22 | Marlins v. Braves -123 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Miami at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. It's been a rough week for the Braves as they've dropped three of five games against the Dodgers and Marlins. They can salvage a series victory here, however, heading into an off day on Monday. I look for them to do just that. Note that Atlanta checks in 29-11 when coming off four or five losses over their last six games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.8 runs on average in that situation. The Marlins on the other hand are a long-term 21-53 when playing on the road after scoring 8+ runs in their previous game, which is also the situation here, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 runs in that spot. Note that Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo faced the Braves once last season, allowing four earned runs on four hits and five walks in just three innings in an 11-9 loss last August. Bryce Elder will counter for Atlanta and he should be confident given he worked into the sixth inning and allowed just three earned runs in a 16-4 victory over Washington in his lone previous home start this season. While the Braves bullpen hasn't been as good as we've come to expect out of the gates this season, it has managed to convert six of seven save opportunities. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-23-22 | Red Sox v. Rays -110 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series in a game that could have easily gone either way. Both of these teams are off to disappointing 7-7 starts. In a game where the pitching is virtually a 'wash', I'll go with what I believe to be the better offense in a bounce-back spot on Saturday. Garrett Whitlock has been effective out of the bullpen for the Red Sox during the early stages of his career but will be making his first big league start here. Meanwhile, the Rays will turn to J.P. Feyereisen in an 'opener' role, much like he served in Chicago last week as the Rays defeated the White Sox 9-3. Despite scoring just three runs last night, Tampa Bay does check in averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last week. The Red Sox have had a slightly tougher time generating runs, averaging 3.4 runs per contest over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the Rays are an impressive 30-11 in their last 41 home games as a favorite of -150 or less. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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04-14-22 | Mariners -105 v. White Sox | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Mariners have dropped the first two games in this series. In fact, they've lost four games in a row since opening the season with consecutive victories. I like the way they're set up to get back in the win column on Thursday, however, as they wrap up their three-game series in Chicago. Logan Gilbert will get the call for the M's. He pitched well in his season debut, allowing just one earned run over five innings, essentially picking up right where he left off at the end of last season. Gilbert had a brief outing here in Chicago last season, tossing two scoreless innings in a game the Mariners won 3-2. Behind Gilbert is a Seattle bullpen that has posted a collective 3.60 ERA and 0.95 WHIP this season. Jimmy Lambert will get his first start of the season for the White Sox. He made three starts down the stretch last year, pitching reasonably well (at first glance at least), allowing five earned runs in 11 2/3 innings. A closer look shows that he recorded a 43.9% hard-hit ball percentage and a 35.7% fly ball percentage - both considerably higher than MLB averages. After getting very limited work in Spring Training, I expect him to struggle against the Mariners lineup today. Here, we'll note that the Mariners are 11-5 after losing four of their last five games going back to last season, outscoring opponents by 1.3 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the White Sox are a long-term 46-60 when playing at home off consecutive wins by two runs or less, as is the case here, allowing 5.1 runs per game and outscored by 0.7 runs on average in that situation. Take Seattle (10*). |
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10-31-21 | Astros -112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Sunday MLB Free play. My selection is on Houston over Atlanta at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. As much as Braves fans are hoping this is the night that they end their World Series drought, I believe they're going to have to wait at least one more game. While the Braves are likely to go with another bullpen game, the Astros will hand the ball to Framber Valdez as he looks to make amends for a poor performance earlier in the series. Interestingly, he's been better on the road than at home this season, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 12 away starts. In his lone previous playoff road start he allowed just one earned run over eight innings in Boston. Of course, each of the last two games in this series could have gone either way. No matter how you spin it, using six different pitchers in last night's game wasn't ideal for Atlanta. Keep in mind, the Braves used five different pitchers two nights ago as well. While the Astros have gone with an 'all hands on deck' sort of approach as well, they at least have a proven starter capable of working at least five or six innings on Sunday. Take Houston. |
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09-14-21 | Reds -155 v. Pirates | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati over Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Reds limp into this series after a disappointing series loss against one of the teams they're trying to fend off in the N.L. Wild Card race, the St. Louis Cardinals. Here, I feel they're well-positioned to bounce back against a Pirates club that they've owned this season, taking nine of 10 previous meetings. Note that the Reds are an incredible 11-1 in games where Wade Miley has stated and they've been priced as a favorite -110 or higher this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.0 runs in that spot. They're also a solid 8-2 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.0 runs in that situation. That's not to mention their 13-4 record when playing on the road following an off day over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 2.1 runs on average. Meanwhile, the Pirates are a miserable 16-44 when playing with double-revenge this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 runs in that situation. They've also been outscored by 1.2 runs on average when coming off two wins in their last three games, with that situation coming up 41 times previously this season. Reds starter Wade Miley is far more likely to work deep into this game than Dillon Peters for the Buccos. Note that the Pittsburgh bullpen has recorded just five saves while blowing eight against division opponents while Cincinnati has converted 21 saves while blowing 10 against N.L. Central foes. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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09-07-21 | Twins v. Indians -133 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -133 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Minnesota at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll keep it simple with my analysis for this play. I really like the way this one sets up for the Indians. Note that Cleveland checks in 26-9 when playing at home as a favorite priced at -110 or higher this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 runs. Better still, the Indians are 26-8 when coming off a game where they scored two runs or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.1 runs on average in that spot. They'll have Aaron CiVale back on the mound for the first time since June, noting that they've gone 12-3 in his 15 previous outings this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.7 runs. Meanwhile, the Twins are 9-16 when coming off two more consecutive wins this season while also going 29-40 after losing four or five of their last six games, as is the case here. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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09-02-21 | Brewers v. Giants -161 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over Milwaukee at 3:45 pm et on Thursday. The Giants haven't exactly been at their best lately but with arguably the most underrated starter in baseball taking the mound for them in Logan Webb on Thursday afternoon, I look for them to get past Eric Lauer and the Brewers. First let's deal with Lauer. The Giants haven't seen him since 2019 when they faced the left-hander three times, clearly figuring him out over the last two of those games, scoring nine earned runs including three home runs in just 12 innings. Lauer hasn't worked beyond the fifth inning in any of his last five starts. While he's done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, his command has been lacking lately as he's issued five walks in nine innings over his last two starts. The Brewers bullpen has been outstanding this season, with one exception. Milwaukee's relief corps has posted a less than impressive 4.26 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 19 saves converted and 12 blown in day games. As I mentioned, Logan Webb is one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball, particularly here at home where he has posted a 1.75 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with the Giants winning all eight of his previous starts. Webb will be looking to exact a little revenge here. He pitched well, allowing only one earned run on three hits over six innings in Milwaukee back on August 6th but the Giants ultimately dropped that contest by a 2-1 score. Note that Webb brings fantastic form to the table having recorded a 1.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three outings. The Giants bullpen has been at its best in day games this season, posting a collective 2.77 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with 18 saves converted and only six blown. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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08-30-21 | Brewers -125 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. |
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08-26-21 | Dodgers v. Padres +122 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego over Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. No one wants any part of the Padres in this spot but we do. Last night's game was pressure-packed. The 16-inning thriller left the Padres with yet another loss. Now I think that pressure is off. With their Wild Card lead having disappeared, no one is expecting San Diego to recover. However, the opportunity is still there and I expect it to salvage the finale of this series with the Dodgers on Thursday. It's rare that we can back Yu Darvish in an underdog role but that's the case here. He's back on the mound following a stint on the I.L. as he was dealing with back issues. That was clearly evident in his most recent start as he struggled against the lowly D'Backs. I don't believe Darvish would be back unless he felt he was ready and expect him to step in and perform well against the Dodgers, just as he has in three previous starts against them this season (3 ER allowed in 20 IP). The Padres could certainly use this game as a potential turning point, noting that Darvish has posted an 11-3 team record in 14 home starts this season Meanwhile, Los Angeles starter Max Scherzer has been lit up by the Padres twice already this season, allowing 11 ER in 10 2/3 IP. His teams are just 6-6 all-time in his 12 career outings against San Diego including a 2-2 mark in his four starts against the Pads' since 2019. Scherzer has yet to lose in four starts since joining the Dodgers but I think it comes here. Note that San Diego is still 44-28 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 0.5 runs per contest. L.A. has won 15 of its last 17 games - its best stretch of the season. I'll go the contrarian route here. Take San Diego (10*). |
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08-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -140 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Game of the Year. My selection is on Oakland over Seattle at 3:35 pm et on Tuesday. The A's have now dropped three games in a row after losing the opener of this brief two-game series by a 5-3 score last night. Expect them to bounce back on Tuesday afternoon. Chris Flexen will get the call for the Mariners. While the M's are 7-3 in his 10 road outings this season, he hasn't pitched particularly well, recording a 4.92 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. After a stretch that saw him give up just one home run in five starts, he's now allowed at least one long ball in four of his last five trips to the hill. The A's will be getting their third look at Flexen this season having had plenty of previous success, scoring seven earned runs on 13 hits while walking three times and striking out only four in 11 1/3 innings of work. Of course, Oakland has gotten even stronger offensively since the trade deadline which is notable as Flexen hasn't faced the A's since July 22nd. The Mariners bullpen hasn't been great on the road this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.76 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with a whopping 16 blown saves. Cole Irvin issued a season-high four walks while matching a season-low with only one strikeout in his most recent start. Still, he managed to work six innings in an eventual 5-4 win over a playoff-bound White Sox club, on the road no less. Now he's back home where he owns a solid 3.72 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season. Note that the A's haven't dropped an Irvin home start since back on May 30th against the Angels. They've reeled off five straight wins with Irvin on the hill here at the Coliseum since. Speaking of pitching at home, the A's bullpen entered last night's action having converted 16 saves while blowing only five here at home this season. Currently on the outside looking in (by a game) in the A.L. Wild Card hunt and with their division title hopes fading, look for the A's to earn a much-needed victory on Tuesday afternoon. Take Oakland (10*). |
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08-23-21 | White Sox -107 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
A.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Toronto first five innings at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The White Sox didn't have a banner weekend in St. Petersburg, dropping two of three games against the Rays. I do expect them to get off to a strong start at the very least against the struggling Blue Jays on Monday. Lance Lynn will take the ball for Chicago. He's having another terrific season and checks in with a 2.27 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in eight road starts. While he'll be pitching on just four days' rest on Monday that's not a major concern as he's worked just nine innings combined in his last two starts. Lynn didn't get a victory in his lone previous start against Toronto this season but did pitch well, allowing just one earned run over seven innings, striking out nine along the way. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a White Sox bullpen that hasn't had a day off in a week-and-a-half. Alek Manoah will counter for Toronto. He labored through just three innings while allowing six earned runs in his most recent start. He'll be dealing with quite a bit of pressure in this start as the Blue Jays desperately need a strong outing to get back on track and keep their slim playoff hopes alive. I expect the White Sox to take advantage of facing Manoah for the second time this season. While he was on the mound for a 6-2 Jays win in Chicago back in early June, it's not as if he was dominant, striking out only four while allowing four hits and two walks over five innings. Take Chicago first five innings (10*). |
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08-15-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -174 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -174 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over New York at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. A letdown wasn't all that surprising after the White Sox beat the Yankees in thrilling fashion in the 'Field of Dreams' game on Thursday. New York got the better of Chicago last night but I look for the White Sox to answer back on Sunday afternoon. Nestor Cortes Jr. will take the ball for New York. He's pitched well in five starts this season, however he has allowed three home runs in his last two outings, covering a span of just 10 2/3 innings and will pitch on just four days' rest on Sunday. The White Sox are obviously a tough opponent, noting they entered yesterday's action 19 games over .500 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by 1.2 runs per game. Note that the Yankees bullpen entered last night's game having logged a whopping 34 innings over their last seven games and then proceeded to work another five in a 10-inning affair. While the New York relief corps has held up well, this is not an ideal spot. Lucas Giolito will counter for Chicago. He's coming off a stellar eight-inning performance against the Twins, allowing just one earned run. Here, he'll be pitching on a full five days' rest. He owns a solid 3.73 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 11 home starts this season. A stark contrast to the Yankees bullpen, the White Sox 'pen has worked among the fewest innings in baseball this season, a total of 369 entering last night's action. They've been at their best in day games this season, recording a collective 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only six blown. Take Chicago (10*). |
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08-13-21 | Astros -135 v. Angels | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. We liked the Astros (understandably) earlier this week at home against the Rockies, cashing with them once in their two-game sweep. Here, I look for them to keep the positive momentum building as they continue to try to fend off the A's atop the A.L. West. Zack Greinke will get the nod for Houston on Friday. He's been terrific on the road this season, posting a 2.67 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with the Astros winning seven of his 10 starts. He's faced the Angels twice already this season, allowing just four earned runs in 14 innings with Houston winning both of those games. Behind Greinke is an Astros bullpen that has already had two days off this week and brings excellent form into this series having recorded a collective 1.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over its last seven games. Patrick Sandoval will counter for Los Angeles. He has quietly pitched well this season but has been a little weaker at home, where he has posted a 3.99 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with the Angels losing four of his seven starts. Since turning in his best outing of the season on July 24th in Minnesota, Sandoval has made two starts, allowing 11 hits and a whopping eight walks in just 10 2/3 innings. The Astros last saw the left-hander last August, tagging him for five earned runs on seven hits over just 2 2/3 innings in an 11-4 rout. The Angels bullpen has pitched better lately but is still an unreliable group, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.80 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with 12 saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Note that they'll be playing their fifth game in the last four days on Friday. Take Houston (10*). |
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08-11-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -115 | Top | 8-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. It's put up or shut up time for the Red Sox. They lost the opener of this important three-game series against the team they're looking up at in the A.L. East standings. I expect them to answer back on Wednesday night. Josh Fleming will get the start for the Rays. It could be argued that he's been the weak link in the Rays rotation this season as they've only managed to go 5-5 in his 10 outings (that's telling considering they're 24 games over .500 overall). Fleming has made five road starts with the Rays winning only two of those games as he's posted a 6.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. While the Red Sox have struggled at times against left-handed pitching this season they've never had any trouble with Fleming, scoring six earned runs on 14 hits in just 9 1/3 innings. That's despite the fact that he's yet to make a start here at Fenway Park, where the weather conditions are expected to be favorable for the hitters again on Wednesday night. Nathan Eovaldi counters for Boston. He's been awful over his last two starts but both of those came on the road. He's been a different pitcher here at home where he's posted a 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with the Sox winning seven of his 13 starts this season. Note that over his last four home outings he has allowed just two earned runs in 29 innings of work. Eovaldi was roughed up by the Rays in his last start against them less than two weeks ago but that was in St. Petersburg. The last time he faced them here in Boston he allowed just one earned run in seven innings in a 9-2 victory back in April. Behind Eovaldi is a Red Sox bullpen that coughed one up last night but has generally been solid in night games this season, recording a collective 3.44 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 28 converted saves and only 10 blown. Boston's relief corps has converted 16 of 23 save opportunities at home this season. Take Boston (10*). |
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08-06-21 | Tigers v. Indians -149 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Indians did not enjoy a great road trip by any stretch of the imagination as they fell below the .500 mark with three consecutive losses in Toronto to close it out. I do look for them to get back in the win column on Friday, however, as they welcome the Detroit Tigers. Detroit just wrapped up a series win at home against the Red Sox yesterday, winning in blowout fashion in the series-finale. The Tigers will be hard-pressed to repeat that effort on Friday though as they hit the road where they check in 12 games under .500 on the season. Matt Manning will get another turn in the rotation for Detroit. He got lit up for nine earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in his lone previous start against the Tribe back in late June. While he's been marginally better since then, that's not saying much. Manning has topped out at four strikeouts while issuing multiple walks in five of eight big league starts. He checks in sporting an ugly 8.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in four road starts with the Tigers losing all four of those games. Behind Manning is a Tigers bullpen that has not performed well on the road this season, recording a collective 6.31 ERA and 1.65 WHIP with 11 saves converted and eight blown. Cal Quantrill will counter for Cleveland. He got off to a terrible start this season but has since righted the ship, allowing just three earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 23 innings of work. He's made seven home starts this season and has held up well, posting a 3.67 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. The Indians bullpen has been terrific at home this season, posting a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only five blown. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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08-03-21 | Mariners v. Rays -152 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -152 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
American League Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the Rays last night (but won with the first five innings 'over') as they fell behind early and could never recover in an eventual 8-2 loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well on Tuesday, however, as they look to bounce back. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for Seattle. He has labored through his last four starts, allowing 18 earned runs in only 21 innings of work. Note that he checks in sporting a 5.11 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 12 nighttime starts this season with the Mariners losing seven of those games. While he does average 5.9 innings per start on the road, he's lasted beyond the fifth inning just once in his last four outings. That spells trouble here as the Mariners bullpen entered last night's action with a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 14 saves converted and 12 blown on the road this season. Luis Patino will counter for Tampa Bay. He has to be feeling pretty good about himself after lasting a career-high six shutout innings in a 14-0 rout of the Yankees in his most recent start. Patino has made three home starts this season and has looked comfortable, posting a 0.71 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 12 2/3 innings of work. Patino isn't a strong candidate to work deep into the game again on Tuesday (he averages well below five innings per start this season) but that's not a big concern as the Rays bullpen has been terrific here at home, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.57 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown this season. Finally, I think it's worth noting that the Rays rested two of their best players in last night's series-opener in Austin Meadows and Wander Franco. Meadows is 5-for-15 with three extra-base hits including two home runs and five RBI over his last four games while Franco has really been heating up, going 6-for-11 with three extra-base hits and four RBI over his last three contests. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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08-01-21 | Twins v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Minnesota at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. The Cardinals stumbled last night, losing 8-1 against the Twins (we won with the 'over'). I expect them to bounce back on Sunday afternoon. Michael Pineda will take the ball for the Twins. He owns a 4.42 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in four road starts this season. Note that he's averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start away from home which is a concern given the Twins bullpen has posted a 4.90 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road this season. St. Louis will hand the ball to veteran Adam Wainwright. He's been locked in lately, working at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts. Wainwright has been rock solid at home, recording a 2.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 12 home starts with the Cards winning seven of those. While he will be pitching on just four days' rest in this one that's not overly concerning when you consider the last time he did, he allowed just one earned run over seven innings. The Cards bullpen has struggled at times this season but has shown positive signs lately, entering last night's game sporting a 3.20 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over their last seven contests. They've converted 19 saves while blowing only three at home this season. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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07-27-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers -148 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've been picking on the D'Backs lately, fading them in consecutive games over the weekend but only managing to earn a 1-1 split. Here, I'll go back to the well again as we go against Arizona when it opens a series in Texas on Tuesday night. Of course the Rangers haven't won a game since July 9th but they've also played their last 10 on the road so it's not as if many wins were to be expected as they've generally been awful away from home. Taylor Widener will take the ball for the Snakes. He'll get a third straight turn in the rotation out of necessity only as he hasn't pitched particularly well. In his last two outings he's allowed 11 hits and six earned runs in just nine innings of work. With Widener unlikely to work deep into the game we should see plenty of a D'Backs bullpen that has really struggled on the road this season, converting fewer saves than they've blown. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He's been at his best here at home this season, with one of the strongest home-road dichotomies we've seen from any starter in baseball. In his last two home outings he has allowed just six hits and three earned runs in 10 innings of work. While Dunning also isn't a strong candidate to last deep into the game, the Rangers bullpen has actually been terrific at home this season. While both of these teams are simply playing out the string in the dog days of Summer, I like the Rangers to secure the victory on Tuesday night. Take Texas (10*). |
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07-26-21 | Reds v. Cubs -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Cincinnati at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Reds have reeled off three straight wins but I look for their brief winning streak to come to an end on Monday night in Chicago. Wade Miley will take the ball for Cincinnati. He'll be making his third start of the season against Chicago and while he's allowed just four earned runs in 11 2/3 innings it's not as if he's been dominant, giving up 15 hits while striking out only six. He also faced the Cubs once last season and didn't make it through the second inning, allowing five earned runs before exiting. Keep in mind, the Cubs have been a better offensive club both against left-handers and at home this season. The Reds bullpen has posted a collective 4.73 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season. Worse still, they've recorded a 5.61 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in night games. Kyle Hendricks will counter for Chicago. He has righted the ship after a rocky start to the season, allowing two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He has posted a respectable 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home this season with the Cubs winning six of his 10 starts. Behind Hendricks is an excellent Cubs bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a 3.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-23-21 | Tigers +112 v. Royals | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
American League F5 Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit first five innings over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Tigers are red hot right now and I like them to at least get off to a strong start against the Royals on Friday night in Kansas City. Former Royal Wily Peralta has been a pleasant surprise in the Tigers rotation this season. He checks in sporting a stellar 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in four road starts. He came out of the All-Star break tossing seven shutout innings against the Twins last time out. With opponents hitting sub-.200 against him this season, I like his chances of keeping the Royals lukewarm bats at bay on Friday night. What I don't want is any part of the Tigers bullpen on the road, where they've posted a collective 6.49 ERA and 1.63 WHIP with 10 saves converted and seven blown this season. While their bullpen was forced to work extended innings in yesterday's 7-5 win over the Rangers, the Royals 'pen was idle. Kris Bubic will take the ball for Kansas City. He's generally been awful this season, failing to even last five innings in any of his last five starts. In four home outings he has recorded a 4.58 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Note that over his last four starts he has been tagged for a whopping 11 home runs in 17 innings of work. The Tigers have seen Bubic twice since last September, scoring six earned runs on 14 hits off of him over 9 2/3 innings. Take Detroit first five innings (10*). |
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07-21-21 | Twins v. White Sox -135 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Twins took the opener of this series but the White Sox have answered back with consecutive wins since and I look for them to take Wednesday's contest as well. Michael Pineda will make his second start since returning from the I.L. His first actually came against these same White Sox as we was tagged for 12 hits and five earned runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 6-1 home loss on July 7th. Since last season, the Sox have seen Pineda three times, scoring 10 earned runs on 22 hits over 16 2/3 innings. Pineda recorded just 15 strikeouts in those three outings. Note that Pineda checks in sporting a 5.40 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three road starts this season. Worse still, he has posted a 5.84 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in three nighttime starts. Behind Pineda is a Twins bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.56 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 10 saves converted and six blown at night this season. Keep in mind, this is a Minnesota team that has gone 18-30 on the road this season. Chicago will counter with Dylan Cease. He labored through his last start against the Twins on July 5th but that was in Minnesota. He's been a completely different pitcher here at home, posting a 2.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with the White Sox winning seven of his nine starts. He'll be making his third straight start on four days' rest but that's not overly concerning when you consider the last time he did it, he tossed seven shutout innings against the Tigers on June 6th, with that start also coming here at home. After struggling in his first two career starts against Minnesota, Cease has generally sorted it out, recording 26 strikeouts while posting a 3-1 team record in his last four outings against the Twins, covering a span of 21 innings. The White Sox bullpen has been outstanding in division games this season, posting a collective 3.14 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only six blown. Their relief corps is among the freshest in baseball, having entered last night's action logging just 290 2/3 innings. For context, some other bullpens have already topped the 400-inning mark. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-20-21 | Angels v. A's -137 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the A's as they look to close out a quick two-game sweep of the Angels on Tuesday afternoon. Jose Suarez will get his third start of the season for the Angels as he takes a second consecutive turn in the rotation. After struggling mightily at the big league level the last two seasons, Suarez has been serviceable this year, but we're talking about a very small sample size. Most concerning to me is his 7:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio through eight innings of work. The Angels pretty much know what they're going to get from Suarez here - likely 4-5 innings. That leaves the bulk of the game in the hands of a poor Angels bullpen that has posted a collective 5.59 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with nine saves converted and five blown in day games this season. Last night the Los Angeles relief corps was charged with all four earned runs in just two innings of work in a 4-1 loss. Rookie James Kaprielian will counter for Oakland. He's actually been getting stronger as the season goes on, checking in with a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over his last three outings. Note that he's worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six starts. Here at home he owns an incredible 1.38 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in four starts. In six daytime outings he has recorded a 2.41 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Here, he'll be making his second start against the Angels this season but I'm not overly concerned as he's fared reasonably well when facing the same team multiple times this season. Kaprielian is averaging an impressive 6.5 innings per start at home this season so perhaps we won't need a lot of help from the A's bullpen. However, it's certainly worth noting that the A's 'pen has been at its best in day games this season, posting a collective 3.78 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Here at home, Oakland's relief corps has converted 14 saves while blowing only three. Take Oakland (10*). |
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07-19-21 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -128 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona first five innings over Pittsburgh at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The D'Backs snapped a four-game losing streak and avoided a sweep at the hands of the Cubs with a 6-4 victory here at home yesterday and I look for them to build off of that success and at least get Monday's game off to a positive start through five innings. Chase De Jong will take the ball for Pittsburgh. We now have a big enough sample size to have a good idea of what we'll get from him on the road, where he has posted a 6.16 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in four starts this season. The D'Backs have never faced De Jong but it is worth noting that they average a higher runs per game average (compared to their overall season average) both at home and against right-handed pitching this season. We'll play the first five innings only as I do respect the Pirates bullpen (despite what we saw from them in yesterday's collapse against the Mets). Note that they've converted seven saves while blowing only two on the road this season and have converted nine without a single blown save in night games. Left-hander Caleb Smith will start for Arizona. Like De Jong against the D'Backs, Smith will be facing the Pirates for the first time in his career. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh averages just 3.5 runs per game on the road this season. Smith has run into some trouble in his last couple of starts (that's an understatement when you consider he was ripped for nine earned runs in a single inning of work against the Dodgers last time out), but has generally pitched well here at home, recording a 3.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five starts in the desert. We want no part of a D'Backs bullpen that has posted a collective 5.36 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only five saves converted and eight blown here at home this season (entering yesterday's action), so we'll play the first five innings only. Take Arizona first five innings (10*). |
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07-18-21 | Padres v. Nationals -104 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over San Diego at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Padres have gotten the better of the Nationals so far in this series (although we'll have to wait for the conclusion of last night's game prior to this one following the unfortunate events that halted proceedings on Saturday), but I expect the Nats to answer back with their ace Max Scherzer on the hill on Sunday afternoon. Joe Musgrove gets the call for the visiting Padres. He's been good, but certainly not great on the road this season where he owns a 3.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Worse still, he has posted a 4.79 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in five daytime starts. While those WHIP numbers are admittedly impressive, he has seen his walks creep up lately, issuing 11 free passes over his last five starts. The Nats have certainly had Musgrove's number over the years, scoring 12 earned runs in 15 previous innings against him. Also note that Musgrove hasn't lasted beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three outings and averages just a shade over five innings per start on the road this season. That last note is a concern as the Padres bullpen has been overworked this season - likely to eclipse the 400-inning mark here today. San Diego's relief corps has just 10 converted saves compared to six blown on the road this season. As I mentioned, Max Scherzer will counter for Washington. He was lit up by the Padres on July 8th but I'm willing to chalk that up as an anomaly, noting that he had given up just six earned runs in his last six starts against them. Scherzer has posted a 1.90 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in eight home starts this season. Right on par, he has recorded a 1.94 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in seven daytime outings. The Washington bullpen has been serviceable here at home, recording a collective 4.27 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown. Take Washington (10*). |
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07-17-21 | Mariners v. Angels -121 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Mariners got the better of the Angels in the opener of this series last night (we won with the 'over') but I expect Los Angeles to answer back on Saturday. All-Star Yusei Kikuchi will get the nod for the Mariners. His overall numbers are terrific this season although it is worth noting that he has posted a less than impressive 4.53 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts with the Mariners losing six of those games. If there's one team that's had his number over the course of his career it's the Angels. In six career outings against them, including one this season, he's posted a 1-5 team record to go along with a 10.22 ERA and 2.31 WHIP. Of course, the Angels have been a significantly better offensive team both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. Behind Kikuchi is a Mariners bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 5.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season with 12 saves converted and 10 blown. Alex Cobb will counter for Los Angeles. He has recorded a stellar 2.48 ERA and 0.94 WHIP here at home this season with the Angels winning five of his six starts. While the Angels bullpen has been shaky, the good news is that Cobb averages a shade over six innings per start here at home. He'll be facing a Mariners team that still owns a losing record on the road this season, averaging just 4.3 runs per game. In two starts against Seattle here in 2021, Cobb has allowed just seven hits and five earned runs in 12 1/3 innings, winning the lone outing here at home which actually came against Kikuchi as well back on June 5th. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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07-10-21 | Reds v. Brewers -189 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -189 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Big Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We're being asked to lay a pretty steep price to back a Brewers club that has been a little uneven of late but I believe it's warranted. Cincinnati will hand the ball to Vladimir Gutierrez. He'll be making his third consecutive start on just four days' rest and he'll be facing the Brewers for the third time this season. Milwaukee hasn't had a ton of success against him (it dropped both previous meetings) but there are certainly building blocks for success in place as it collected 10 hits, five walks and four earned runs over 13 innings in its two previous looks at the rookie right-hander. While Gutierrez was sharp in his first four big league starts, his last four haven't gone so swimmingly as he's allowed 16 earned runs on 25 hits over 21 1/3 innings. That's not to mention his less than impressive 17:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over that stretch. Gutierrez averages just 5.5 innings per start this season, meaning we should see plenty of a Reds bullpen that has posted a 4.85 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Also note that Cincinnati hasn't had an off day since June 23rd so we're talking about an overworked bullpen right now. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He owns a sparkling 1.79 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in eight home starts this season with the Brewers winning five of those games. Unlike Gutierrez, Peralta hasn't had to pitch on four days' rest since May 16th and won't do so here either. The Reds will be seeing Peralta for the fourth time this season but have never really figured him out, managing to score just five earned runs on 10 hits in 15 2/3 innings. The Brewers have come away victorious in five of Peralta's last six starts against Cincinnati. Behind Peralta is a Brewers bullpen that has been at its best in night games this season, posting a collective 3.29 ERA and 1.22 WHIP (entering last night's action). Here at home they've converted 15 saves while blowing only six. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-09-21 | Royals v. Indians -134 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
American League Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Indians last night as they snapped their nine-game losing streak in thrilling fashion in a 7-4 walk-off victory to open this series against the Royals. It looked pretty bleak for the first seven innings but a couple of late three-run home runs ended up being the difference. I believe the Indians are set up incredibly well to keep building positive momentum on Friday night, even if the starting pitching matchup doesn't look all that favorable on paper. This one has the chance to really get away from the Royals as the game progresses. Brad Keller will take the ball for the Royals. We've been picking on Keller lately, and for good reason. He's once again in an awful spot here, pitching on four days' rest for a ninth consecutive turn in the rotation. Give him credit for hanging in there for 6 1/3 innings against the Twins last time out but that was at home. He has posted a 5.68 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in nine road starts this season and hasn't been any better at night, recording a 6.92 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Considering Keller averages less than five innings per start we're likely to see plenty of a Royals bullpen that hasn't had an off day since June 21st and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.75 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season. Triston McKenzie will make a spot start for the Indians on Friday. The less said about him the better, quite honestly. His numbers this season are awful - there's a reason he was banished from the rotation at the start of June. With that being said, he has inexplicably had the Royals number. In three career starts against them he has allowed just three earned runs on eight hits while striking out 18 and walking five in 16 innings of work. Unlike Keller, McKenzie has a fresh arm having not started since the second week of June. I like the contrarian angle of backing him here, knowing he'll likely be on a short leash. Behind McKenzie is a solid Indians bullpen that entered last night's action with a collective 2.83 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with nine converted saves and only one blown here at home this season. While they did blow a save opportunity last night, they entered that contest having converted 14 of 15 save chances in division games this season. Unlike the Royals, who have been playing every day for weeks, the Indians have been afforded three off days in the last two weeks (with a couple of seven-inning double-headers thrown in the mix). Take Cleveland (10*). |
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07-08-21 | Royals v. Indians -128 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. |
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07-08-21 | Dodgers -151 v. Marlins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Daytime Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles first five innings over Miami at 12:10 pm et on Thursday. The Dodgers have inexplicably dropped the first three games in this series but I look for them to get off to a positive start at the very least in Thursday's afternoon affair. Julio Urias will take the ball for Los Angeles. He'll be making his second straight start on a full five days' rest and checks in sporting a 3.40 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in nine road starts this season with the Dodgers winning seven of those games. Better still, Urias has recorded a 3.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in seven daytime outings this season. While he got lit up in his lone previous start against the Marlins, that came over four years ago and has little bearing on today's matchup. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Dodgers bullpen that has posted a collective 4.48 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in day games this season. Sandy Alcantara will counter for Miami. His worst start of the season came against the Dodgers back on May 14th as he was chased after allowing eight earned runs in just 1 1/3 innings. He was pitching on four days' rest on that night, and he'll be doing the same here today. Note that he has labored through his last two outings, allowing 11 hits and six runs, four of them earned, while posting a 7:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 11 1/3 innings of work. Here, we'll look to avoid a Marlins bullpen that has been quietly efficient at home this season, recording a collective 2.81 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Take Los Angeles first five innings (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Cardinals v. Giants -175 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco over St. Louis at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Cardinals have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Giants to answer back and avoid the sweep on Wednesday night. Johan Oviedo gets the call for the Cardinals. He's been absolutely dreadful on the road this season, recording a 6.20 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in five starts with the Cards winning only two of those games. Here, he'll be making his third consecutive start on just four days' rest. Over his last three outings he has allowed 19 hits and 10 earned runs to go along with an ugly 8:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 13 2/3 innings of work. Behind Oviedo is a Cards bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 4.52 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season with just eight saves converted compared to six blown. Left-hander Alex Wood will counter for San Francisco. It's worth noting that the Cards have been a weaker team against southpaw pitchers this season, hitting a collective .222 and averaging just 3.7 runs per game. They have had some success against Wood in the past, but have never faced him away from home and haven't had a look at him in nearly two years. Wood checks in with a 4.09 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this season, with the Giants winning five of his eight starts. The Giants bullpen has been outstanding at home this season, recording a collective 3.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 15 saves converted and only three blown. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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07-01-21 | Rangers v. A's -174 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -174 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the A's last night and I won't hesitate to come right back with them again in Thursday's series finale against the Rangers. Dane Dunning gets the nod for Texas. He's been a completely different pitcher on the road compared to at home this season, posting a 7.45 ERA and 1.86 WHIP with the Rangers losing all seven of his starts to date. He hasn't been much better in day games, recording a 5.14 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in five outings. With Dunning averaging less than five innings per start this season we're likely to see plenty of the Rangers bullpen which has struggled on the road, entering last night's action sporting a 5.66 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with just six saves converted and four blown. Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. He owns a 2.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in nine home starts this season with the A's winning eight of those. He brings excellent form into this start having recorded a 2.12 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over his last three outings. The Rangers have never really been able to figure Manaea out as he has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts against them going back to August of 2017. While the A's bullpen's overall numbers haven't been all that great this season they have been slightly better in day games and do check in having converted 12 saves while blowing only two here at home (entering last night's action). Take Oakland (10*). |
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06-25-21 | Pirates v. Cardinals -160 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -160 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Friday. This is an excellent bounce-back spot for the Cardinals coming off last night's lopsided loss in the series-opener. William Crowe will take the ball for the Pirates. He's been awful on the road this season, posting a 6.37 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in five starts with the Buccos losing three of those games. Worse still, he owns a 10.57 ERA and 2.22 WHIP in four nighttime starts, with Pittsburgh going 1-3 in those contests. The only two times during his young career where an opponent has seen him twice, he's allowed a whopping nine earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings in the second start. The Cardinals get that opportunity here after scoring three earned runs in five innings in a 3-0 victory against Crowe and the Pirates back on May 2nd. Behind Crowe is a Pirates bullpen that has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 5.07 ERA and 1.27 WHIP (entering last night's action). They haven't been any better at night either, recording a 4.83 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. While the Pirates relief corps has done a nice job of converting save opportunities I don't expect them to be in position to do so tonight. Kwang-Hyun Kim will counter for the Cardinals. He doesn't tend to work deep into games but does own a 2.66 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in five home starts this season with the Cards winning four of those games. At night he has recorded a 3.03 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in six outings. This will be Kim's first start against Pittsburgh this season after allowing four earned runs in 11 1/3 innings against the Pirates last year. Note that the Pirates are just 4-12 against left-handed starters this season, averaging only 3.1 runs per game. The Cardinals bullpen has posted a collective 4.15 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at home this season (entering last night's action) but those pedestrian numbers are ok as they've converted an incredible 13 of 14 save opportunities here in St. Louis. Against division opponents they're 9-for-10 on save opportunities. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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06-21-21 | Indians v. Cubs -135 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Monday. While both of these teams 'avoided the sweep' with narrow victories on Sunday, it's the Cubs that are better-positioned to keep the positive momentum building here at home on Monday night. Cleveland was red hot before dropping two of three games against the lowly Pirates in Pittsburgh. Keep in mind, the Indians have been a weaker team on the road compared to at home, checking in just two games above .500 in the visitors' role this season. Similarly, the Cubs have been much better here at Wrigley Field, where they're an impressive 25-12 on the season. With all of that being said, perhaps it's not surprising that the Indians swept a short two-game series with the Cubs in Cleveland back in May. Aaron Civale will take the ball for the Indians on Monday. He's pitched poorly in three of his last four starts and now finds himself in a difficult situation, starting on just four days' rest for the second straight outing. We're bound to see some regression when it comes to Civale's incredible 10-2 team record in 12 starts this season. And it should come sooner rather than later given the fact that he's been tagged for 13 earned runs in 25 innings of work over his last four starts. Behind Civale is a good Indians bullpen, but one that has been better at home than on the road. The Cleveland 'pen entered yesterday's action sporting a 3.99 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season. Adbert Alzolay will counter for Chicago. Unlike Civale, he won't be dealing with a potentially 'tired arm' here as he hasn't started a game since June 7th due to a blister issue. Alzolay was in a similarly poor situation to Civale in his most recent outing, pitching on four days' rest for the second straight start. Perhaps it should come as no surprise that he struggled in that start against the Padres (who were seeing him for the second time in five days), allowing four earned runs in just three innings. Alzolay has been sharp here at home this season, guiding the Cubs to a 4-2 record in six previous starts while posting a 3.56 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The Cubs bullpen has been as good as it gets here at home this season, recording a 2.57 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown (entering yesterday's action). Expect them to shut the door on any potential comeback attempts by the Indians here tonight. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-18-21 | White Sox v. Astros +103 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 103 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
MLB American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Astros cruised to a 10-2 win in the opener of this four-game series last night and have now won four games in a row and 12 of their last 16 overall. I look for them to keep rolling on Friday. Carlos Rodon will take the ball for the White Sox. He's been terrific this season, there's no denying that. However, here he'll be pitching on four days' rest for the second straight start after going seven innings in his last outing against the Tigers. He'll also be facing an Astros lineup that has feasted on left-handed pitching this season, hitting .270 as a team and averaging 5.6 runs per game against southpaw starters. Behind Rodon is a somewhat overworked White Sox bullpen given the team hasn't had a day off since back on June 7th. Luis Garcia will counter for Houston. He has quietly been one of the Astros most effective starters this season and has been outstanding here at home where he owns a 1.91 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in five starts, with the Astros winning three of those games. Houston's bullpen has been solid here at home this season, recording a collective 3.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with just three blown saves compared to seven converted. Unlike the White Sox, who have been playing every day for nearly two weeks straight, the Astros were just off on Monday. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-18-21 | Mets v. Nationals -113 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Mets had their three-game winning streak snapped at the hands of the Cubs last night while the Nationals enter this series off of four straight victories. I look for Washington to keep its winning streak intact for at least one more night. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for New York. He's been awful in five road starts this season, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Worse still, he has recorded an 8.77 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four nighttime starts. Averaging just 3 2/3 innings per start we're likely to see plenty of the Mets bullpen in this one. While New York's relief corps has posted fine overall numbers this season, it has struggled on the road having recorded a collective 4.43 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with eight blown saves to go along with nine converted. Speaking of bullpens, it's certainly worth noting that the Mets haven't had an off day in over a week while the Nats' were idle yesterday. Erick Fedde gets the start for the Nationals. His numbers aren't great by any means, far from it in fact. However, he has pitched well over his last few starts, recording a 1.59 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while working at least five innings in all three of those outings. Behind him is a terrific Nats' bullpen that has posted a collective 3.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at home this season, converting eight save opportunities while blowing only three. Take Washington (10*). |
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06-17-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -191 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over Arizona at 3:45 pm et on Thursday. We're being asked to lay a fairly steep price to back the home side here, but I believe it could be even higher. We cashed our free play on the Giants last night as they rallied from an early deficit to win a wild, high-scoring affair. I'm not expecting that same type of game to play out on Thursday but I'm confident the end result will be the same. Zac Gallen is expected to get the nod for the D'Backs as he makes his return from the I.L. His early season results were mixed, much like the early stages of his big league career. Note that he faced the Giants three times last season and in the third game we saw San Francisco finally figure him out, scoring four earned runs over just five innings. Gallen wasn't able to work deep into ball games with any consistency when he was healthy earlier this season and that spells trouble here as he'll likely not be extended too much, meaning we'll see plenty of an awful D'Backs bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.71 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season, recording just three saves compared to eight blown. Kevin Gausman will start for the Giants. He remains one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball this season. There's a reason the Giants rewarded him with a substantial contract prior to this season. He's been lights out here at home this season, posting a 2.33 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in four starts. Better still, he has recorded a 1.25 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in six daytime starts with the Giants winning five of those games. The D'Backs have faced Gausman four times since the start of the 2019 season and have yet to figure him out, managing just four earned runs in 24 innings. With Gausman averaging 6 2/3 innings per start at home this season we may not need much help from the San Francisco defense. However, I will point out that the Giants 'pen has been outstanding this season, recording a collective 2.53 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 13 converted saves compared to just two blown here at home (entering last night's action). Take San Francisco (10*). |
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06-14-21 | Angels v. A's -159 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Angels are red hot on the heels of consecutive three-game sweeps of the D'Backs and Royals, winners of eight of their last nine games overall. However, the A's are rolling as well, fresh off three straight wins over the Royals and riding a 9-2 run over their last 11 games. I like the home side to keep it going on Monday night. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for the Angels. The wheels have come off for him a little bit lately as he's failed to last at least six innings in five straight starts and checks in sporting a 6.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season. The A's have seemingly figured him out over their last couple of games against him, scoring six earned runs on 12 hits in only eight innings. With Bundy averaging just a shade over five innings per start this season we should see plenty of the Angels below-average bullpen in this one as well. Los Angeles' 'pen has posted a collective 4.53 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with nine saves and seven blown in night games this season. Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. After a tough start to the season he's rounded into form, posting a 2.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in eight starts here at home with the A's winning seven of those. Going back over his last four starts, Manaea has allowed just two earned runs in 26 2/3 innings of work. With Manaea averaging north of six innings per start here at home this season, the A's bullpen isn't a major concern, but they have been solid, particularly at home where they've recorded a somewhat lofty 4.31 ERA but a respectable 1.29 WHIP with 10 converted saves compared to only two blown. While the Angels have hit left-handed starting pitching well this season, they haven't done much against Manaea, managing just two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in two games against him this season. The A's bats have finally woken up lately, scoring 31 runs in their last six games, with Matt Chapman in particular getting on a bit of a heater at the dish over the last few games. Take Oakland (10*). |
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06-12-21 | White Sox -162 v. Tigers | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The White Sox got past the Tigers in extra innings last night and I look for them to add to Detroit's misery on Saturday afternoon at Comerica Park. Dylan Cease will take the ball for Chicago. While he has struggled on the road this season, he's had no such issues against the Tigers over the course of his career. In fact, the White Sox are a perfect 7-0 in his seven previous starts against them. Detroit has already had two looks at Cease this season and four since the start of last year. However, if the Tigers haven't figured him out by now, they're likely not going to do so. Behind Cease is an average White Sox bullpen, but one that has excelled against A.L. Central opponents, posting a collective 3.07 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 91 innings this season (entering last night's action). Jose Urena will counter for Detroit. This will be Chicago's third look at Urena this season. After struggling against him in their first go-round, we saw the White Sox bust out last Sunday, scoring three earned runs on six hits over five innings. With Urena averaging between four and five innings per start at home this season we're likely to see plenty of the Tigers bullpen, which has struggled here, posting a collective 4.31 ERA and 1.39 WHIP (entering last night's game). Interestingly, the Tigers 'pen has blown six saves while converting only five in day games this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Nationals v. Rays -156 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -156 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This price seems awfully short given the way the pitching matchup sets up on Wednesday night in St. Petersburg. Pat Corbin will take the ball for the Nationals. The wheels have fallen off for him a bit this season, particularly on the road, where he has posted a 7.30 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in five starts, with the Nationals winning only one of those games. He averages just a shade over five innings per start this season and you would have to go back five outings to find the last time he made it through the sixth inning. That spells trouble as the Nats' bullpen hasn't been good, recording a 4.53 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road. Entering last night's game, Washington's relief corps had posted a 6.26 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with a pair of blown save opportunities over their last seven games. Rookie Shane McClanahan will counter for Tampa Bay. He's made three home starts, recording a 3.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While he averages less than five innings per start that's not a big concern as the Rays bullpen has been outstanding. Tampa relievers have posted a collective 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home this season, making good on seven of nine save opportunities. The Rays have been one of the best teams in baseball in recent weeks and I look for them to post another victory on Wednesday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Mariners +107 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners have quietly started hitting lately, scoring five runs or more in five of their last seven games entering Tuesday's series-opener against the Tigers. They'll have a good opportunity to keep it rolling at the plate as they faced Tigers struggling starter Matt Boyd on Tuesday. Boyd has posted an 8.59 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over his last three starts. While he does still own solid numbers here at home, the Tigers have actually only managed to win two of his six starts at Comerica Park. With Boyd averaging less than five innings per start over his last three outings that means we'll likely see plenty of the Tigers bullpen that has posted a collective 5.63 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at night this season. Marco Gonzales gets the start for the Mariners - his second since returning from the injured list. He didn't really get stretched too far in his first start back, allowing just one earned run in four innings against the A's last week. Now he's had six days off since that outing and should be able to work a little deeper into this contest. Gonzales' overall numbers are skewed by a couple of bad starts to open the campaign. He checks in having allowed just six earned runs over his last four starts, spanning 22 innings of work. While the Mariners bullpen hasn't been great this season, I'm not convinced the light-hitting Tigers can take advantage. Seattle relievers have posted a collective 4.65 ERA at night this season but a positive correction should be in order as they've actually recorded a solid 1.28 WHIP under the lights. Take Seattle (10*). |
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06-05-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -120 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
MLB on FOX Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Boston at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series last night but I like the Yankees to answer back on Saturday in the Bronx. Eduardo Rodriguez will get the call for Boston. He's been downright awful on the road this season, posting a 6.42 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Over his last three outings he has recorded a dreadful 9.88 ERA and 2.12 WHIP. Behind Rodriguez is a Red Sox bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season, with that WHIP climbing to 2.02 over their last seven games entering last night's action. Jameson Taillon will counter for New York. He hasn't been particularly sharp this season but has been at his best here at home where he owns a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Yankees bullpen has been terrific this season, posting a collective 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at home (entering last night's contest). In night games, Yankees relievers have been even better, with a 1.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Take New York (10*). |
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06-04-21 | Astros v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Houston at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Blue Jays at a short price with their ace on the hill on Friday night as they look to take the first step in avenging a series loss in Houston suffered earlier this season. Toronto is of course seeing the ball exceptionally well right now, hitting .302 as a team over its last seven games. Here it will face veteran right-hander Zack Greinke, who has admittedly been at his best on the road this season where he owns a 1.64 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in five starts this season. However, the Jays will be getting their second look at him in less than a month and did have plenty of success the last time they faced him on May 9th, knocking him out of the game after four innings after he gave up four earned runs on nine hits. Greinke will also be making his second straight start on just four days of rest. Note that working behind Greinke is an Astros bullpen that has posted a 4.89 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road this season, blowing seven saves compared to only four converted. Hyun-Jin ryu gets the start for the Jays. He's struggled a bit in his last two starts but should bounce back nicely here. He owns a 2.05 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in five night starts this season. While I say he's struggled in his last couple of outings, that's relatively speaking. He's actually still posted a 1.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over his last three starts, giving up four earned runs in 11 2/3 innings over his last two trips to the hill. Oddly enough, Ryu will be making his first career start against the Astros. The Toronto bullpen has been phenomenal of late, posting a collective 1.72 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings of work over their last seven games. While their home numbers leave a lot to be desired, it's worth noting that the Jays shifted to Sahlen Field in Buffalo for their home games earlier this week. In two games here, they've allowed just one earned run in 8 2/3 innings. I mentioned the Astros won a series against Toronto at home earlier this season. Note that Houston checks in just 11-12 on the road this season. Take Toronto (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -199 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Big Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The White Sox had their series finale in Cleveland rained out yesterday, preventing them the opportunity to go for a 2-2 series split. I do look for them to bounce back from consecutive losses here as they open a series with the suddenly surging Tigers. Detroit has won five of its last seven games overall. Despite a 10-run explosion against the Brewers last time out, the Tigers are still averaging just 4.6 runs per game over their last seven contests, however. Casey Mize will get the start for Detroit on Thursday. While he's been solid this season, it's interesting to note that he owns a 4.33 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in five starts against division opponents with the Tigers winning just two of those games. That includes a 3-1 loss to the White Sox. Note that Chicago will be getting its fourth look at Mize since last August and it has had some success against him, scoring eight earned runs in 15 2/3 innings, going a perfect 3-0 along the way. While the Tigers bullpen has been terrific lately, it still owns a 6.22 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road this season where it has recorded just five saves compared to four blown saves. Veteran Lance Lynn will counter for Chicago. He's off to a tremendous start this season having gone 6-1 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He's certainly comfortable pitching here in Chicago where he has gone 5-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a collective 0.50 ERA and 0.39 WHIP over the last seven games and owns a solid 3.22 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-31-21 | Angels v. Giants -130 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Monday. The Giants are rolling right now and remain one of the most undervalued teams in baseball. While a letdown looks like it could be in order off a huge series sweep of the rival Dodgers in Los Angeles, I don't see it in this spot. The Angels are coming off consecutive wins of their own over a division rival in Oakland. That only salvaged a four-game series split with the A's - a series in which they scored a grand total of only nine runs. L.A. checks in just 11-15 on the road this season where it averages less than four runs per game. Meanwhile, San Francisco has posted a solid 14-7 home record, averaging 4.2 runs per contest. The starting pitching matchup is virtually a wash here with Dylan Bundy facing Johnny Cueto. I will point out, however, that Cueto has been at his best at home and in daytime starts this season, recording a 3.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP here in San Fran while posting a 2.82 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in daytime outings. After a strong start to the season, the wheels have come off for Bundy as he has been tagged for 17 earned runs in just 9 2/3 innings of work over his last three starts. The Angels have lost six of his last eight starts overall. Where the Giants own a big advantage here is in the bullpen and that's notable as both Bundy and Cueto average just a shade over five innings per start this season. Note that the Giants 'pen has posted a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home this season. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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05-30-21 | Angels v. A's -145 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Angels got the better of the A's in yesterday's ball game, securing a 4-0 victory to avoid a potential four-game sweep in this series. I look for Oakland to answer back with a win of its own on Sunday afternoon. Down-trodden Jose Quintana will take the ball for Los Angeles. To say that he has struggled this season would be an understatement. With a 7.93 ERA and 1.92 WHIP you have to wonder how many more starts the Angels can afford to give the veteran right-hander. Things have been even worse for Quintana on the road, where he owns a gaudy 12.54 ERA and 2.36 WHIP, albeit with a relatively small sample size of three starts spanning just 9 1/3 innings. But that's part of the concern here; Quintana is averaging less than four innings per start this season. That opens the door for an Angels bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a 5.13 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road this season. Cole Irvin will counter for Oakland. The A's have dropped each of his last four starts although it's worth noting that three of those losses came by a single run. Irvin's overall numbers aren't great this season but most of his struggles have come against the Astros (in three starts against them he's been tagged for 13 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings. Note that Irvin has held his own in five daytime starts, recording a solid 1.21 WHIP. The A's bullpen hasn't been great lately, entering yesterday's action sporting a 4.50 ERA over their last seven games but that doesn't tell the whole story as they actually recorded a terrific 1.06 WHIP over that stretch. Oakland's 'pen was sharp yesterday, tossing 3 1/3 innings of three-hit, shutout ball. Take Oakland (10*). |
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05-29-21 | Yankees -133 v. Tigers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -133 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
American League Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Tigers got past the Yankees in extra innings last night but I look for the Bronx Bombers to answer back with a victory of their own on Saturday afternoon. Deivi Garcia will take the ball for the Yanks. He's made just one spot start this season and allowed two earned runs over four innings in a 4-2 loss to the Orioles (back on April 26th). So you can understand why the Yankees are such a short favorite against the lowly Tigers here. However, I believe Garcia will have a short leash again in this one and behind him is a terrific Yankees bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a 2.69 ERA and 0.95 WHIP on the road this season. Note that the Tigers check in 14-22 against right-handed starting pitching this season, averaging just 3.7 runs per game. Spencer Turnbull gets the start for the Tigers. He's obviously been terrific on the whole this season, including a no-hitter in Seattle two starts back. With that being said, the Yanks will be getting their second look at Turnbull this month after knocking him around for four earned runs over five innings back on May 1st. Turnbull managed only one strikeout in that start so he wasn't really fooling anyone. Behind Turnbull is a Tigers 'pen that has held up well lately but owns a 5.35 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 79 innings pitched in the daytime this season. Take New York (10*). |
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05-27-21 | Padres -120 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
MLB National League Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego over Milwaukee at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Padres have bounced back with consecutive wins in this series after dropping Monday's opener and I look for them to wrap up the four-game set with another victory on Thursday afternoon. Ryan Weathers takes the ball for San Diego. He's not going to work deep into the game but that's just fine as the Padres bullpen has been lights out. They entered last night's contest having posted a collective 0.73 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over their last seven games and proceeded to toss four shutout innings in a 2-1 extra innings victory. For Weathers' part, he has made two road starts, not allowing a single earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work. The Brewers don't hit left-handers well, having gone 3-6 while averaging just 2.8 runs per game against southpaw starters this season. The Padres will be getting their second look at Brewers starter Adrian Houser this season. He owns an inflated 5.00 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in four home starts this season with the Brewers winning just one of those. Also note that he averages less than five innings per start here at home which spells trouble as the Brewers bullpen entered last night's action having posted a collective 7.32 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take San Diego (10*). |
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05-24-21 | Cardinals v. White Sox -173 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
MLB on ESPN Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over St. Louis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off disappointing weekend series' with the Cardinals dropping two of three games against the rival Cubs and the White Sox getting swept by the Yankees in the Bronx. Here, I look for the White Sox to bounce back at home as they once again look to tee off on a left-handed starting pitcher. Chicago's success against southpaw starters has been well-documented. It checks in 9-3 against lefties this season, averaging a whopping 8.0 runs per game and hitting just shy of .300 as a team. Cards starter Kwang-Hyun Kim has given up just one earned run in five consecutive starts but he's generally labored through those outings, most recently lasting just 3 1/3 innings in a start against the Padres last Sunday. Now that opposing teams have a little more tape on Kim, we've seen them have some success. To say that the Cards bullpen has been struggling would be an understatement. Note that Kim has posted a 3.86 ERA and an inflated 1.46 WHIP in three road starts this season, averaging less than four innings per start. That's concerning as behind Kim is a Cards bullpen that has recorded a 7.46 ERA and 2.01 WHIP over their last seven contests. Veteran Lance Lynn will counter for Chicago. He's off to a terrific start, having posted a 1.55 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through seven starts. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners were no-hit by Spencer Turnbull last night and unfortunately we were along for the ride as we backed them in a 5-0 loss. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play, however, as Seattle hands the ball to highly-touted prospect Logan Gilbert for his second big league start. Gilbert was shaky in his debut against Cleveland last week, laboring through four innings in a 4-2 loss. Nerves were certainly a factor as Gilbert gave up a pair of home runs and also threw two wild pitches in that brief outing. There were positives to take away, however, as he struck out five and didn't issue a single walk. The fact that he 'only' allowed four runs was actually somewhat encouraging considering he didn't induce a single ground ball in the start. Gilbert draws a very manageable opponent here. While the Tigers have taken the first two games in this series they're still just 7-14 on the road this season and 11-19 against right-handed starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal and his winless record will get the start for Detroit on Tuesday. He checks in sporting an ugly 9.00 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in three road starts this season. The Tigers have lost all six of his starts here in 2021 and he's only managed to last an average of 4 2/3 innings. That opens the door for the possibility that we'll see extended work from a weak Tigers bullpen that has posted a collective 6.13 ERA this season including a 7.46 mark on the road. By contrast, the Mariners 'pen entered last night's action having recorded a 3.09 ERA here at home. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -118 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners suffered a not-so-surprising letdown last night as they couldn't keep the positive momentum building after a series win over the Indians that was capped by a victory against Shane Bieber on Sunday. I do expect them to bounce back on Tuesday as they look to post their fifth win in their last six tries at home against Detroit. Spencer Turnbull will get the start for the Tigers. He pitched well in his most recent start but that was at home against a Royals club that was mired in a deep hitting slump. The Tigers have won two of Turnbull's five starts this season but both came at home with the other coming against the lowly Pirates. In two road outings, Turnbull has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. In his lone previous start against the Mariners back in 2009, Seattle prevailed by a 7-2 score in Detroit. While the Tigers bullpen has shown some improvement lately, this is still a group capable of blowing up on any given night, entering last night's action sporting a collective 6.19 ERA this season. Justin Dunn will counter for the Mariners. His command issues continue to be a problem, with a walk rate north of 15%, however his stuff is good enough to fool most big league hitters, as evidenced by his .181 opponents batting average (that's on par with his career opponents BA). The Mariners have managed to win each of Dunn's two home starts this season. While he did labor through his last start, that came on the road as a +225 underdog against the Dodgers. I look for Dunn to bounce back here noting that the Tigers check in 10-19 against right-handed starters this season. The Mariners bullpen has generally been solid this season, particularly here at home where it entered last night's game with a collective 3.09 ERA. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-11-21 | Royals -126 v. Tigers | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. |
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05-06-21 | Brewers -115 v. Phillies | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
MLB Getaway Day Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. The Phillies jumped ahead 5-0 in the first inning last night and held on for a 5-4 victory in a game they probably shouldn't have won. That was Philadelphia's third straight win to open this series but I like the Brewers to salvage the series finale on Thursday afternoon. Brandon Woodruff will be responsible for trying to turn the tide for the Brew Crew here and he should be up to the challenge against a Phillies club he's faced three times over the course of his career, giving up just one earned run on three hits over 18 innings of work. Of course, Woodruff has been terrific this season and checks in sporting an 18-4 team record in the first half of the season over the last two seasons, with the Brewers outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.2 runs. By contrast, Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has posted a 10-22 team record in the first half over the course of his career, with his teams outscored by an average margin of 1.5 runs. While the Brewers have a slight edge in terms of starters here, they also own a more considerable edge in the bullpen, even if it hasn't gone their way in this series to date. Entering last night's action, the Milwaukee bullpen had posted a 3.00 ERA over the last seven games. By contrast, the Phillies 'pen entered last night's contest having recorded a collective 5.09 ERA over its last seven games. While it did get the job done last night, it wasn't without major difficulty as the Brewers threatened virtually every inning. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Brewers -130 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
National League Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Brewers as they look to get back at the Phillies after dropping the first two games in the series. Freddy Peralta will get the start for Milwaukee. He's been terrific, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through six appearances, five starts this season. It gets better as Peralta has recorded a stellar 27.5% hard-hit ball percentage - nearly 12% better than the MLB average. After holding opposing hitters to a collective .204 batting average last season he's been even better in early returns here in 2021, recording a .146 opponents batting average. Working behind Peralta is a Brewers bullpen that while not great overall this season, did enter last night's action having posted a collective 3.00 ERA over their last seven games. It's been a different story for the Phillies as their 'pen has posted a collective ERA north of five (entering last night's action). Chase Anderson will get the start for them on Wednesday. As I've noted before this season, he's pitching for his fourth different team since breaking in with the D'Backs in 2014. He hasn't fared particularly well this season as his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up while he's recorded a 43.3% hard-hit ball percentage, a 29.9% line drive percentage and a 28.4% fly ball percentage. Here, he'll face a Brewers lineup that is getting healthier with Lorenzo Cain returning to a starting role two nights ago before pinch-hitting in last night's contest. While Milwaukee has lost the first two games in this series it is still a solid 9-6 on the road this season. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals -134 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City over Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. PLEASE NOTE: Phil Maton will now make the start for Cleveland. The play stands as originally posted on Kansas City. With a 42.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats and a walk percentage north of 11%. The Indians took the first game of this series last night, their second straight victory, but I look for the Royals to answer back on Tuesday night. Sam Hentges will take the ball for the Indians. He was considered a top-20 prospect for the Indians last season but the jury is still out as to whether he's a viable option in the rotation. He was never able to prove himself in the minors, struggling mightily in Double-A ball two seasons ago prior to the Covid shutdown. Out of the bullpen this season he has labored through 5 2/3 innings of work, allowing eight hits, including three home runs. While we're talking about a small sample size, the big left-hander has recorded an ugly 52.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Despite his 57.9% ground ball percentage, he has posted a .320 opponents' batting average. Veteran Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. He's off to a very average start to the season but that's about par for the course for the left-hander. Minor has faced the Indians twice during his career with both of those starts coming in 2019. In those two starts he allowed just 10 hits and one earned run over 15 innings, including a start here in Kansas City where he outdueled Shane Bieber in a 4-2 victory. Minor has generally fared better in the first half of the season compared to the second half, with his teams outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.8 runs per game in his last 21 first half starts. Note that the Indians are just 5-7 and hitting a collective .184 against left-handed starting pitchers this season. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Dodgers -124 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers bats have gone silent in the first two games of this series and they draw an even tougher matchup against Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff on Saturday night. With that being said, I like them to bounce back and avoid a third straight loss at the hands of the Brew Crew behind another strong performance from Dustin May. May had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 2.53 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through 21 1/3 innings of work. May is rounding into a terrific ground ball pitcher, after recording a 53.4% ground ball percentage last season he's improved that number to 56.3% so far this year. He's held opposing hitters to a collective .188 batting average while recording an incredible 37.2% strikeout percentage. While the Brewers have won the first two games in this series, like the Dodgers, they're also struggling at the plate right now, still missing two of their best hitters in Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. Brandon Woodruff has actually faced the Cubs in three of his first five starts this season and he's absolutely owned them. There is reason to believe that the Dodgers can scratch together some offense against him here, however. Los Angeles actually faced Woodruff once last October and chased him before the end of the sixth inning, scoring three runs on five hits. Woodruff has posted a 40.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 89.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season, with both numbers checking in just north of the MLB average. His walks have crept up compared to last year with a 7.4% walk percentage but the fact that he has yet to give up a single home run has certainly helped his cause. Note that he posted a 3.1% home run percentage last season, falling right around the MLB average. Interestingly, the Dodgers have gone 29-11 the last 40 times they've faced a starting pitcher that has gone undefeated through five or more starts, as is the case with Woodruff, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 runs. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Dodgers -152 v. Brewers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -152 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Brewers aren't hitting right now and that has a lot to do with the players that currently aren't in their lineup including Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. They're in tough on Thursday night as they prepare to face Trevor Bauer and send out spot starter Eric Lauer. Lauer should get hit hard in this one as he makes his first appearance of the 2021 season. The former Padres castoff got in very limited work with the Brewers last season and didn't fare well, posting an ERA north of 13 and a 2.36 WHIP in just 11 innings of work. He's been hit hard over the course of his three-year big league career, to the tune of a 41.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 89.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both worse than the MLB average. He's not a ground ball pitcher by any means, with a career ground ball percentage 5% lower than the MLB average. Opposing batters hit a collective .347 off of him in limited action last season and I'm confident we'll see the Dodgers tee off tonight as well after finally waking up late in yesterday's eventual rout of the Reds. Trevor Bauer isn't off to a positive dominant start with his new club but he's certainly been good, and draws an undermanned Brewers lineup as I mentioned. Last year's N.L. Cy Young Award winner has held opposing hitters to a collective .135 batting average here in 2021 after posting a .159 opponents' batting average last season. His walks are down and his strikeouts are up and while he's recorded a relatively high fly ball percentage and home run percentage I would expect that to balance out in due time. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Royals -115 v. Pirates | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City over Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals saw their five-game winning streak come to an end in a 2-1 loss to the Pirates last night. I look for them to start a new streak on Wednesday, however, as they hand the ball to Mike Minor against Mitch Keller. It's easy to forget that Minor is just one season removed from finishing eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting in an All-Star campaign with the Rangers in 2019. He was effective last year as well, splitting time with the Rangers and Royals and he's off to a fine start here in 2021. Minor has recorded a better than MLB average 37.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while holding opposing hitters to a collective .232 batting average through four starts, spanning 21 1/3 innings of work. It's been a completely different story for Pirates starter Mitch Keller. He had a miserable spring and hasn't been any better here in the regular season, posting an ERA north of seven and a 1.78 WHIP through four starts, covering a span of 16 1/3 innings. Opposing hitters have teed off on Keller to the tune of a 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 93.1 mph exit velocity with his line drive and fly ball percentages both sitting near 30% - considerably worse than the MLB average. For his career, opposing hitters are batting a collective .297 against Keller, 48 points north of the MLB average. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Reds +112 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati over St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. The Reds have now lost six games in a row following yesterday's 2-0 setback (we won with the 'under' in that game). I'll back them on Sunday, however, as they send Luis Castillo to the hill against Jack Flaherty. Castillo had a fine spring but hasn't gotten off to the start he had hoped for here in the regular season, posting an ERA north of six and a 1.66 WHIP. A closer look does give reason for encouragement, however, as he's recorded a 36.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both better than the MLB average. He's always been a ground ball pitcher and this year has been no different as he's posted a 47.4% ground ball percentage and 16.7% fly ball percentage. While his strikeouts are down, so are his walks. We can anticipate some positive regression to the mean going forward noting that opponents have hit a collective .317 against him this season but just .225 over the course of his career. While the Cardinals have had a few offensive explosions this season, they check in having scored five runs or less in seven of their last nine games overall. Jack Flaherty will counter for St. Louis. He had a shaky spring and is off to an uneven start to the regular season as well. He was helped out by his team's offense last time out, as the Cards put up 12 runs in a win over the Nationals. Flaherty has recorded a 42.4% hard-hit ball percentage an an exit velocity nearing 91 mph of opposing bats. His fly ball percentage of 30.5% is nearly 8% higher than the MLB average. The Reds have essentially managed to win around one out of every three games here in St. Louis over the last three seasons and I look for that to hold true here. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Brewers v. Padres -195 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -195 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Chalk Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego over Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. We're paying a bit of a tariff to back the Padres here on Wednesday as they look to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Brewers but I believe the price could be even higher. Adrian Houser will take the ball for Milwaukee. He has a tough act to follow after Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes absolutely dominated the Padres lineup over the last two nights. Houser had a rough spring but has been serviceable through two starts during the regular season. He's relied on a very high ground ball rate through three starts but there is some reason for concern as he's recorded a 46.3% hard-hit ball percentage and opponents have hit a collecting .288 off of him (after they hit .285 against him last season). That's not to mention the fact his strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up. The Padres are expected to have both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado back in the lineup on Wednesday after they were rested on Tuesday. Dinelson Lamet will make his 2021 debut for the Padres after quietly finishing fourth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season. Lamet faces a Brewers lineup that is still without two of its best hitters in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Lamet's numbers certainly won't pop off the page, but he did improve year-over-year in terms of strikeout percentage, home run percentage and walk percentage last season. For his career, Lamet has limited opposing hitters to a collective .202 batting average. This is a fine matchup for Lamet to ease his way into the 2021 campaign, noting the Brewers entered last night's action hitting just .206 against right-handed starters this season. Take San Diego (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Rangers v. Angels -164 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -164 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Texas at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Angels after they evened the series at one game apiece with a victory last night. We were set to back Angels starter Jose Quintana before last Saturday's game against the Twins got postponed due to Covid protocols involving Minnesota. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the veteran Quintana looks to shake off a rough start to the season. Keep in mind, Quintana has a lot to prove this year as he takes a $2.5M paycut with the Angels after being cut loose by the Cubs. He had a terrific spring but has posted a ridiculous 16.20 ERA and 3.40 WHIP through two regular season outings. While he has recorded a 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage, the exit velocity off opposing bats is a better than MLB average 85.0 mph. He has also posted an excellent 55.6% ground ball percentage (we are talking about a small sample size here). Mike Foltynewicz will counter for Texas. He's been riding the coattails of his All-Star season in 2018 when he finished eighth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting. The fact is, that's really been his only impressive campaign at the big league level. He's 0-3 through three starts this season, recording a 47.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.2 mph exit velocity while also posting poor 27.3% and 31.8% line drive and fly ball percentages, respectively, both north of the MLB average. Take out that one outlier season in 2018 and his numbers across the board are actually quite awful. Here, he faces an Angels lineup that entered last night's action hitting a collective .261 against right-handed starting pitching. Note that with last night's loss, Texas is now a miserable 15-45 in its last 60 road games against A.L. West opponents. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Indians -155 v. Reds | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Rivalry Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Shane Bieber has pitched well through his first three starts this season but only has a 1-1 record to show for it. He'll be asked to once again serve as the stopper for the Indians on Sunday afternoon after they dropped the first two games in this series against in-state rival Cincinnati. I'll get behind Bieber here, noting that for as well as he's pitched in the early going this season, there's still room for improvement. He has recorded an uncharacteristic 9.5% walk percentage, well north of his career average in that category. I certainly look for him to settle down going forward and having posted a team record of 3-0 in three career starts against the Reds, with a 3.15 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, I'm confident he can shine in this matchup. Wade Miley has posted some gawdy advanced stats for the Reds, in a very limited early season sample size, and while I do expect him to hold his own again here today, I do expect the Indians bats to scratch out enough offense to support Bieber. We can certainly anticipate some mild regression from Miley today when you consider he has posted a 64.3% ground ball percentage and 7.1% fly ball percentage - and again, Cleveland shouldn't need a whole lot of offense as long as Bieber holds up his end of the bargain, as he should. Despite dropping the first two games in this series, the Indians have still managed to split the last six matchups between these two teams in Cincinnati. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Pirates v. Brewers -135 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
MLB National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Pittsburgh at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Pirates took the first game of this series in blowout fashion last night (we won with the 'under'). I like the Brewers to get one back on Saturday as they go up against Buccos journeyman starter Trevor Cahill. Cahill is quite simply barely hanging on at the big league level - now pitching for his ninth different team since 2014. Things haven't been going particularly well for the veteran right-hander. He earned himself a $1M contract with the Pirates this year thanks to serviceable work with the Giants last year, in a very limited sample size. Through two starts with the Pirates, Cahill has posted an 8.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. It gets worse. He has recorded a 53.8% hard-hit ball percentage, 91.2 mpg exit velocity and a 34.6% fly ball percentage - all considerably worse than the MLB average. Cahill was once a true ground ball pitcher but after posting a ground ball percentage well north of 50% every year from 2015 to 2018 he hasn't come close to touching that number since. His strikeout rate has managed to improve the last couple of years but his home run percentage has also ballooned. With opponents teeing off to the tune of a .324 batting average against him in limited work this season, I look for the Brewers bats to come alive on Saturday. Milwaukee will counter with a veteran starter of its own in Brett Anderson. Unlike Cahill, he has settled in during his twilight years at the big league level. Anderson continues to induce ground balls at a solid rate. He's been better than the MLB average in terms of ground ball percentage and fly ball percentage throughout his career, including through two starts this season. Opponents are hitting just .243 against him through 10 innings of work here in 2021. While the Pirates have been playing better baseball lately, they're still likely to bring up the rear in the N.L. Central this season. Look for the Brewers to respond following last night's lopsided defeat. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Tigers v. A's -153 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
MLB American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Detroit at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This spot sets up nicely for the A's as they return home following an encouraging 4-1 road trip to host a Tigers club that is in for a letdown off a surprising series sweep in Houston. Detroit certainly got behind manager A.J. Hinch in his return to Houston, delivering three straight wins by a combined 20-8 margin. I still don't think the Tigers are actually as good as their 6-6 record would indicate, though, and expect them to fall short in Thursday's series-opener in Oakland. Tarik Skubal will take the ball for the Tigers. He has labored through his first two starts this season, failing to make it through the sixth inning in either of them. After recording a 40.5% fly ball percentage in 32 big league innings last year he's right on course again through two starts in 2021, posting a 41.4% fly ball percentage. While we are talking about a fairly small sample size, he has now posted a 6.9% home run percentage during his big league career, more than twice the MLB average in that category. After a shaky season debut, Sean Manaea settled in and delivered a clutch performance in Houston last week, allowing just one earned run over six innings in a 6-2 A's victory. While he's certainly had some ups and downs, the A's have never given up on Manaea since he broke into the bigs in 2016 and I do feel he can be a solid contributor near the top of their rotation this year. Note that Manaea has been better than the MLB average in terms of hard-hit ball percentage, ground ball percentage and fly ball percentage in the early going this season. Opponents are hitting .286 against him through two starts but I would certainly expect some positive regression to the mean in that department as Manaea has limited opposing hitters to a .248 batting average over the course of his career. Take Oakland (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Cubs v. Brewers -154 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 1:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cubs evened this series at a game apiece with last night's 3-2 win. I look for the Brewers to get it right back on Wednesday, however, as they send Corbin Burnes to the hill against Jake Arrieta. Burnes is part of Milwaukee's underrated 1-2 punch at the top of its rotation that also includes Brandon Woodruff, who was sharp again last night. Burnes was terrific in the spring and he's been effective through two regular season starts as well, allowing only two hits and one earned run while posting a ridiculous 20:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 1/3 innings of work. Note that opponents have now hit just .227 off of Burnes over his 3+ year big league career and he's been better than the MLB average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories we look at, considerably so in some including strikeout percentage where he is 31.9% compared to the 22.8% MLB average. He has posted an incredible 26.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 57.9% ground ball percentage through two starts - again owning numbers considerably better than the MLB average in both categories during his career. Jake Arrieta gets the nod for the Cubs. Unlike that of Burnes, Arrieta's career is winding down and the numbers show it. While he does check in 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA through two starts this season there is reason for concern. He has yet to allow a home run this season but has recorded a 42.1% hard-hit ball percentage and an ugly 36.8% fly ball percentage. In other words, it's only a matter of time before Arrieta starts giving up the long ball. Note that he's been worse than the league average in each of the last four seasons in terms of home run percentage. That's not to mention the fact that Arrieta's strikeout percentage hasn't been higher than 19.1% in five years. The MLB average for that category is 20.7%. Finally, opponents have hit .283 and .298 against him over the last two seasons, respectively and are hitting .283 off of him again this year. Starting pitchers aren't everything when it comes to baseball handicapping, but in this case, I feel the Brewers have enough of an edge to warrant a play. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-12-21 | A's -125 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. I love the way this one sets up for the A's, who got off to a slow start this season but are enjoying some good vibes after securing their first series victory with two consecutive wins in Houston over the weekend. The D'Backs are also coming off an impressive series win over the Reds thanks to a perfect weekend. I simply feel that Oakland has considerably more upside and I like the way the pitching matchup sets up on Monday. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the A's. He hasn't gotten off to the start he had hoped for this season, going winless with an ERA north of five through his first two outings. However, this is a guy that finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and is certainly capable of bouncing back against the D'Backs on Monday. Note that Bassitt has allowed two home runs in just 11 1/3 innings of work this season but has proven capable of keeping the ball in the park during his MLB career. He gave up just 0.9 home runs per nine innings last season. There are a number of areas where we can anticipate some positive regression to the mean when it comes to Bassitt this season, and speaking of regression, I do feel some of that is in order when it comes to the D'Backs offense, which just scored 20 runs in a three-game series against the Reds. Madison Bumgarner will get the nod for Arizona. He continues to wind down what has been a tremendous career, but not on a positive note. Through two starts this season he has recorded an ugly 54.8% hard-hit ball percentage and a staggering 43.8% line drive percentage - nearly double the MLB average in the latter category. Note that the A's have gone 46-18 in their last 64 games against left-handed starting pitching, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 runs per game in the process. Take Oakland (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Phillies v. Braves -155 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. The Braves have already assured themselves of a series victory over the Phillies by taking the first two games in this series but you can be sure they want to complete the sweep on Sunday night after getting swept themselves in a three-game series in Philadelphia last weekend. We've finally seen signs of life from the Braves slumping 2-through-4 hitters in this series with Freddie Freeman homering in each of the last two games, Ozzie Albies collecting an extra-base hit in consecutive games and Marcell Ozuna chipping in with a couple of hits and a walk. Tonight, Atlanta will be facing Phillies starter Matt Moore. He labored through his first start of the season, lasting just 3 1/3 innings while allowing four hits, four walks and two earned runs. Note that Moore struggled mightily in his last two full big league seasons in 2017 and 2018 (he pitched only 10 innings in 2019 and didn't pitch at all in 2020), allowing opponents to hit .283 and .305, respectively, while recording ugly hard-hit ball percentages of 44.9% and 48.3% not to mention line drive and fly ball percentages both north of the MLB average. The Braves are counting on veteran left-hander Drew Smyly to be a part of their rotation this season, paying him $11 million. He was solid in his season debut, giving up just two earned runs on four hits over six innings while striking out eight. While I'm not all that high on Smyly in the long-term picture, there's no denying that he's held his own in limited work going back to the start of last season. Given he had a terrific spring and picked up right where he left off in his first regular season outing, I'm willing to take a flyer on him here in this key early season division matchup with the Phillies. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -104 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado over Arizona at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockies are certainly a tough team to trust right now on the heels of four straight losses including a wild, 10-8 setback against the D'Backs last night. They'll hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela tonight after he was lit up for seven earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in his season debut. Senzatela took a step forward last season, going 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, cutting down on his walks considerably - a theme that continued in the spring this year. On a positive note he did issue only one walk in his season debut and also posted a 29.4% hard-hit ball percentage. His opposing starter tonight, Madison Bumgarner, also got hit hard in his first start of the season, which is pretty much par for the course based on what we've seen from him over the last couple of seasons. Bumgarner was well above the MLB average in home run percentage and walk percentage last season. He has posted a hard-hit ball percentage north of 40% in each of the last two seasons and last week against the Padres that number reached 53.8%. By contrast, the MLB average in that category is 38.7%. Rockies starter Senzatela owns a 24-11 team record in 35 career starts at Coors Field with Colorado outscoring the opposition by 0.8 runs per game. Take Colorado (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Braves -107 v. Phillies | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. It seems like the majority of bettors were all over the Braves in their season-opener against the Phillies and it didn't go particularly well as Atlanta fell behind early and ultimately fell in walk-off fashion in the 10th inning. I do look for the Braves to bounce back on Saturday as they send Charlie Morton to the hill against Zack Wheeler. Note that Atlanta is a perfect 9-0 the last nine times it has come off a one-run loss, outscoring opponents by 2.5 runs per game in that situation. Better still, the Braves are 19-3 the last 22 times they've come off a game where they were held to two runs or less, outscoring opponents by 3.8 runs on average in that spot. While Charlie Morton's career numbers against the Phillies are ugly, he has only faced them twice since 2011 and has been reasonably effective in those two starts, giving up just three earned runs while posting a 17:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 innings of work. He posted a perfect 2-0 team record in those two starts. Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler does own a career winning record against Atlanta (6-5) but has generally labored through those starts, recording a 3.70 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He has posted a 2-4 team record in six starts against the Braves over the last two seasons, recording more than four strikeouts in only two of those six outings. The Braves were forced to use five bullpen arms in Thursday's opener but that's not a major concern following the off day on Friday. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-02-21 | Astros v. A's -135 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Houston at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Astros drummed the A's 8-1 in last night's season-opener but I expect a different story to unfold on Friday night in Oakland. Cristian Javier will take the ball for Houston. He got in limited work during a Covid-shortened 2020 season, facing the A's twice. He didn't last beyond the fifth inning in either of those starts, allowing seven earned runs (and four home run) in just eight innings of work. Javier worked just three scoreless innings during Spring Training, allowing one hit and posting a 2:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Jesus Luzardo will counter for Oakland. The A's went a perfect 3-0 in his three starts against the Astros last season. He was very effective in two regular season starts against Houston, allowing just four earned runs over 12 2/3 innings. However, he got lit up in a postseason start versus the Astros, chased from that game after just 4 1/3 innings. I'm willing to chalk up that poor performance to nerves and certainly anticipate a better performance from him here as he looks to help the A's earn their first win of the season. Last night's blowout loss should be easy for the A's to flush from their memory as there are going to be nights like that over the course of a long 162-game season. Take Oakland (10*). |
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10-24-20 | Dodgers -164 v. Rays | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
World Series Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Tampa Bay at 8:08 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers took back control of this series with a relatively easy 6-2 victory last night. I expect them to take full reins with another win on Saturday as they send Julio Urias to the hill against Ryan Yarbrough of the Rays. Urias has been sharp both as a starter and out of the bullpen and I expect him to be comfortable making this start on Saturday night as well. In four postseason appearances he has allowed just one earned run on seven hits in 16 innings of work. Meanwhile, Yarbrough hasn't been as sharp in the playoffs as he was during the regular season, albeit in limited work. Yarbrough has allowed 11 hits, three walks and three home runs in 10 2/3 innings here in the postseason. The Dodgers are a confident bunch right now. We won with the Rays in their lone victory in this series but here I believe L.A. is the play, and in fact the price could be even higher than it is. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NLCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Atlanta at 6:05 pm et on Wednesday. This is by all accounts the Dodgers last stand as they try to avoid falling behind 3-0 in the NLCS on Wednesday night. Los Angeles certainly showed plenty of fight late in last night's game - a tough 8-7 loss - and I look some carry-over from that performance here. If there's a Braves starter they can get to it's Kyle Wright, who takes the ball today. Wright pitched well in a spot start against the Marlins last round but he'll face a tougher challenge here. Note that he lasted at least six innings in just four of eight regular season starts and was tagged for at least four earned runs in three of those outings. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He has held his own in two postseason starts, allowing just four hits and no earned runs while fanning 11 and walking just one in eight innings of work. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-06-20 | Marlins +182 v. Braves | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
MLB NLDS Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami over Atlanta at 2:08 pm et on Tuesday. I will gladly take the value being offered with the underdog Marlins on Tuesday afternoon. Miami has been undervalued all season. The Marlins certainly enter the NLDS with a real 'no one believes in us' vibe if there is such a thing. Sandy Alcantara will take the ball for Miami in Game 1. He was masterful in his Wild Card round start against the Cubs and has now worked at least six innings in six straight starts going back to the regular season. You would have to go back to August 30th to find the last time Alcantara gave up more than three earned runs in a start. Max Fried will counter for Atlanta. He was on point in his Wild Card round start against the Reds but let's face it, Cincinnati just didn't bring its bats to that series. Note that prior to that start, Fried hadn't worked beyond the fifth inning in any of his last four starts. The last time he faced the Marlins he worked just an inning and gave up three hits and two earned runs on September 23rd. Take Miami (10*). |
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10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -150 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego over St. Louis at 7:08 pm et on Thursday. The Padres fell short in the opener of this series yesterday - a game that marked their long-awaited return to the MLB postseason. Perhaps it should have been expected that they would experience some nerves and that certainly appeared to be the case early on as they fell behind by four runs before they even had a chance to bat. Over the game's final eight innings the Padres played the Cards even and I expect them to get over the hump and even up this series with a victory on Thursday. Zach Davies was terrific during the regular season, posting a career-high 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings while also issuing his lowest walks per nine innings since the 2016 campaign. His 1.07 WHIP was also a career-low, as was his 2.73 ERA. While we are talking about a relatively small sample size, those numbers are still worth noting. Cards starter Adam Wainwright held up pretty well as he winds down a long, storied big league career. With that being said, he posted his lowest strikeouts per nine innings in three years and also matched a career-high for home runs allowed per nine innings. It's been somewhat of a 'Cinderella' season for the Padres and I don't expect it to end today. Take San Diego (10*). |
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09-29-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -183 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 5 pm et on Tuesday. If the Jays are going to steal a game in this series it's going to be with Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound, not Matt Shoemaker. The Jays made the interesting choice to name Shoemaker their Game 1 starter. I suppose it doesn't really matter all that much in a three-game series but I would have thought they would want to put their best foot forward in the series-opener. Shoemaker enjoyed a fine bounce-back season but he'll have a tough time keeping the A.L.-leading Rays at bay in this one. Rays starter Blake Snell enjoyed another fine season, recording at least 11 strikeouts per nine innings for a third straight campaign while giving up fewer hits and walks per nine innings compared to a year ago. I believe Tampa Bay should be laying an even steeper price here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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08-31-20 | Cardinals +106 v. Reds | Top | 7-5 | Win | 106 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Cardinals as they head to Cincinnati to face the Reds on Monday. Dakota Hudson will take the ball for St. Louis. He quietly won 16 games for the Cardinals last season and finished fifth in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting. So far this season his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down. He's also allowing two fewer hits per nine innings. Meanwhile, Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani has struggled. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down from 9.0 a year ago to 5.7 this season. His walks per nine innings have crept up from 2.6 last season to 3.6 this year. Neither of these offenses have excelled so far this season but I believe we'll see the Cards enjoy a solid night at the dish on Monday. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -105 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over Arizona at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Rockies on Tuesday night. D'Backs starter Zac Gallen has done nothing but impress since making his big league debut last season but I believe he's in for a rough night here. Note that while Gallen's strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly early on this season, so are his walks. While his 2.81 ERA is terrific, he has already been tagged for three home runs through 16 innings of work. Enter Coors Field on Tuesday night. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He endured a disastrous 2019 campaign but let's not write him off just yet. Keep in mind, just two years ago Freeland posted a stellar 2.85 ERA in 33 big league starts. So far this season he has recorded a 2.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 18 2/3 innings. He's seen his walk totals drop under three per nine innings for the first time in his career. Take Colorado (10*). |
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08-07-20 | Astros v. A's +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Houston at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The A's are off to an incredible 9-4 start this season, pacing the A.L. West. Meanwhile, Houston continues to scuff its heels, sitting at 6-6. The Astros will obviously be looking to put some pressure on the A's over the course of this weekend series but I like Oakland in the opener on Friday night. Zack Greinke will take the ball for Houston. He pitched well last time out after struggling in his season debut. Note that he's worked just nine innings through two starts, allowing seven hits and five earned runs. Chris Bassitt will counter for Oakland. He has posted a 0.93 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through two starts this season. Bassitt has actually been quite consistent at the big league level, most recently going 10-5 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.19 WHIP last season. In three seasons where he has made at least 11 appearances he has posted a 3.81 ERA or better. Take Oakland (10*). |
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08-05-20 | Blue Jays v. Braves -130 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not sure it matters who the Braves go up against right now, they're red hot at the dish and capable of scoring runs in bunches. They're expected to face Jays ace Hyun-Jin Ryu on Wednesday - a stiff challenge to be sure - but I think they'll be up for it and we're being offered a discounted price to back them. Sean Newcomb has been inconsistent so far this season but faces a Jays lineup that hasn't really been able to get loose this season - with last weekend's postponed games in Philadelphia certainly not helping matters. Look for the Braves to stay hot on Wednesday night. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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08-01-20 | Padres v. Rockies +110 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over San Diego at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Padres are off to an incredible start to the season thanks to an explosive offense but I am anticipating some regression moving forward. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for San Diego on Saturday. Now in his third big league season, he has settled in as a middle of the road starter and certainly showed more of that in his season debut last week, lasting only 3 2/3 innings against the D'Backs. Kyle Freeland is off to a fine start for the Rockies after giving up just two earned runs in six frames against the Rangers last week. He was awful for the Rockies last season but has proven he can succeed at this level, going 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA in 2018. I'm willing to take a flyer on him, not to mention the Rockies bats, here on Saturday night as they bounce back from a tough loss last night. Take Colorado (10*). |
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07-31-20 | Indians v. Twins +107 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 107 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Look for the Twins to bounce back following last night's shutout loss against the Indians. Minnesota ran into a red hot pitcher in Indians ace Shane Bieber last night and while it faces another stiff challenge against Mike Clevinger on Friday, I am confident we'll see the Twins gain a little more traction at the dish. Minnesota is off to a fine start this season, having won four of its first six contests. While we're only dealing with a small sample size, the Twins do check in ranking fourth in the league in runs scored and T6 in runs allowed. Randy Dobnak will get the nod for the Twins on Friday. He was effective over four innings in his season debut against the White Sox last week, allowing just one earned run. While the Indians are winning, they're not doing a lot of damage offensively and I look for that to catch up to them here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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07-27-20 | Braves v. Rays -148 | Top | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Atlanta at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Braves are coming off a breakout performance at the plate last night in New York but I look for the Rays to keep them at bay in St. Petersburg on Monday. Atlanta will hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz, who is coming off a strong Summer Camp. Keep in mind, he has posted just one sub-4.24 ERA season over the course of his six-year big league career. That came in a true outlier season in 2018. Last year, Foltynewicz posted a 4.97 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Here, he faces a Rays lineup that showed signs of busting out while notching back-to-back wins over the Jays over the weekend. The Rays will start Tyler Glasnow on Monday. He has made 23 starts since joining the Rays two seasons ago, allowing just 82 hits in 116 1/3 innings of work. Last season he was limited due to injury but posted a 1.78 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 60 2/3 innings. I look for him to rise to the challenge of facing a loaded Braves lineup on Monday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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07-25-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -137 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 3:10 pm et on Saturday. There's plenty of excitement around the Blue Jays and that certainly wasn't dampened following an impressive 6-4 victory on opening night in St. Petersburg. I do look for the Rays to get back at the Jays on Saturday afternoon, however, as they send Ryan Yarbrough to the mound against Matt Shoemaker. Yarbrough started last season as a bit of an experiment, with the Rays sending relievers to the hill in 'opening' roles, although he ultimately stretched it out and made more conventional starts as the season went on. Yarbrough performed reasonably well, with an ERA just over four and a WHIP under 1.00. Perhaps most encouraging was the fact that he brought his walks per nine innings total down from 3.1 in 2018 to 1.3 in 2019. Shoemaker is coming off three straight injury-shortened seasons. Last year he managed to make only five starts, pitching very well in those outings, before bowing out. Because of his injury-plagued nature it's a little difficult to get a good read on Shoemaker, made even more difficult so by the strange circumstances around the 2020 campaign. I do feel there's a considerable drop-off from Hyun-Jin Ryu, who pitched last night, to Shoemaker here at the top of the Jays rotation and I look for the Rays to take advantage on Saturday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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07-26-19 | Cubs v. Brewers +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Brewers didn't exactly take care of business to open this homestand, dropping two of three games against the Reds. They did, however, salvage the finale of that series and I look for them to notch another victory on Friday night against the Cubs. Chicago travels from San Francisco, where it dropped two of three games as well. The Cubs are a miserable 19-29 on the road this season. Kyle Hendricks is a losing pitcher on a winning team, having gone 7-8 with a 3.41 ERA this season. He's been at his worst on the road where he's 3-6 with a 5.44 ERA. Note that Chicago is giving Hendricks just north of two runs per game when he takes the ball on the road this season. Gio Gonzalez will counter for Milwaukee. He returned from a 'dead arm' to throw four somewhat effective innings against Arizona last time out. In 10 1/3 innings pitched at Miller Park this season he has recorded a terrific 0.87 WHIP. Also note that Gonzalez turned in one of his best outings of the season against the Cubs, pitching 5 2/3 innings of two-hit, shutout ball back in May. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-24-19 | Reds v. Brewers -147 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers have dropped the first two games of this series, with their pitching really letting them down, allowing 20 runs in those two losses. I believe the price is reasonable to back the Brewers to avoid the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. Jhoulys Chacin started the season a perfect 2-0 but has gone a miserable 1-10 since. He got rocked in his last start in Arizona but has actually pitched well here at home recently, allowing just two earned runs over his last two starts at Miller Park, covering a span of 10 innings. Lucas Sims will counter for the Reds. He has posted solid numbers this season but we're talking about a very small sample size as he has worked just 9 2/3 innings. The Brewers do continue to perform well offensively, having plated 54 runs over their last eight games, scoring at least five runs in each of those contests. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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Sean Murphy MLB Top Money Lines Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-23-22 | Brewers +100 v. Padres | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
05-22-22 | Padres v. Giants -126 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -126 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
05-21-22 | Mariners +148 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
05-18-22 | White Sox -150 v. Royals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
05-17-22 | Angels -121 v. Rangers | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -121 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
05-14-22 | Phillies v. Dodgers -173 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -173 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
05-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -155 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
05-02-22 | Twins -140 v. Orioles | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
04-26-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +106 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
04-24-22 | Marlins v. Braves -123 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
04-23-22 | Red Sox v. Rays -110 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
04-14-22 | Mariners -105 v. White Sox | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Astros -112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
09-14-21 | Reds -155 v. Pirates | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
09-07-21 | Twins v. Indians -133 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -133 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
09-02-21 | Brewers v. Giants -161 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
08-30-21 | Brewers -125 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
08-26-21 | Dodgers v. Padres +122 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
08-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -140 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
08-23-21 | White Sox -107 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
08-15-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -174 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -174 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
08-13-21 | Astros -135 v. Angels | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
08-11-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -115 | Top | 8-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
08-06-21 | Tigers v. Indians -149 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
08-03-21 | Mariners v. Rays -152 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -152 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
08-01-21 | Twins v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
07-27-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers -148 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
07-26-21 | Reds v. Cubs -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
07-23-21 | Tigers +112 v. Royals | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
07-21-21 | Twins v. White Sox -135 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
07-20-21 | Angels v. A's -137 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
07-19-21 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -128 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
07-18-21 | Padres v. Nationals -104 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
07-17-21 | Mariners v. Angels -121 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
07-10-21 | Reds v. Brewers -189 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -189 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
07-09-21 | Royals v. Indians -134 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
07-08-21 | Royals v. Indians -128 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
07-08-21 | Dodgers -151 v. Marlins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
07-07-21 | Cardinals v. Giants -175 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
07-01-21 | Rangers v. A's -174 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -174 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
06-25-21 | Pirates v. Cardinals -160 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -160 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
06-21-21 | Indians v. Cubs -135 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
06-18-21 | White Sox v. Astros +103 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 103 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Mets v. Nationals -113 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
06-17-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -191 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
06-14-21 | Angels v. A's -159 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
06-12-21 | White Sox -162 v. Tigers | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Nationals v. Rays -156 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -156 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Mariners +107 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
06-05-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -120 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
06-04-21 | Astros v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
06-03-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -199 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
05-31-21 | Angels v. Giants -130 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
05-30-21 | Angels v. A's -145 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
05-29-21 | Yankees -133 v. Tigers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -133 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
05-27-21 | Padres -120 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
05-24-21 | Cardinals v. White Sox -173 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
05-19-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
05-18-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -118 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
05-11-21 | Royals -126 v. Tigers | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
05-06-21 | Brewers -115 v. Phillies | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
05-05-21 | Brewers -130 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals -134 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
05-01-21 | Dodgers -124 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
04-29-21 | Dodgers -152 v. Brewers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -152 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
04-28-21 | Royals -115 v. Pirates | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
04-25-21 | Reds +112 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
04-21-21 | Brewers v. Padres -195 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -195 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
04-21-21 | Rangers v. Angels -164 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -164 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
04-18-21 | Indians -155 v. Reds | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
04-17-21 | Pirates v. Brewers -135 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
04-15-21 | Tigers v. A's -153 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
04-14-21 | Cubs v. Brewers -154 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
04-12-21 | A's -125 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
04-11-21 | Phillies v. Braves -155 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
04-07-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -104 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
04-03-21 | Braves -107 v. Phillies | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
04-02-21 | Astros v. A's -135 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Dodgers -164 v. Rays | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
10-06-20 | Marlins +182 v. Braves | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -150 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
09-29-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -183 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
08-31-20 | Cardinals +106 v. Reds | Top | 7-5 | Win | 106 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
08-11-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -105 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
08-07-20 | Astros v. A's +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
08-05-20 | Blue Jays v. Braves -130 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
08-01-20 | Padres v. Rockies +110 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
07-31-20 | Indians v. Twins +107 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 107 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
07-27-20 | Braves v. Rays -148 | Top | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
07-25-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -137 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
07-26-19 | Cubs v. Brewers +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
07-24-19 | Reds v. Brewers -147 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |