My selection is on the 'under' between Rutgers and Temple at 2 pm et on Saturday.

Last year, we hit one of our biggest plays of the season on Rutgers minus the points against Temple in an eventual 61-14 rout. I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘under’ in this year’s rematch at Lincoln Financial Field. Rutgers blew the doors off FCS squad Wagner last week, scoring 66 points in a 59-point victory. Let’s not get too carried away by that result, however. The Scarlet Knights are just one game removed from scoring just 22 points in a narrow win over Boston College in their season-opener. There are still question marks on the offensive line and at quarterback, where Evan Simon and Gavin Wimsatt have split time under center (I’m rarely a fan of the time share at quarterbackat this level). Temple dropped its opener by a 30-0 score at Duke but rebounded for a 30-14 win over FCS squad Lafayette last Saturday. Note that after scoring a touchdown in the game’s first five minutes against Lafayette, the Owls didn’t reach the end zone again until the final three minutes of the first half. They were held off the scoreboard entirely in the third quarter when the result of the game was still hanging in the balance, up by a 21-14 score. I won’t knock the Temple defense too much for that ugly loss at Duke in Week 1. To its credit it did hold the Blue Devils out of the end zone over the game’s final 37 minutes and got very little help from its offense in that one. Here, I’m confident the Owls offense can move the football just enough to keep their defense fresh and ultimately limit the scoring in this contest. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Ohio at 2 pm et on Saturday.

Iowa State may not have looked overly impressive in an ugly 10-7 victory over rival Iowa last Saturday but that’s just how that series goes. Keep in mind, the Cyclones scored three offensive touchdowns before their season-opener against FCS squad Southeast Missouri State was a quarter-and-a-half old and they’ll be up against a similarly-porous defense here. Ohio got its season started with an impressive 41-38 win over Florida Atlantic as QB Kurtis Rourke had the game of his life, completing 27-of-34 passes for 345 yards and four touchdowns while adding a rushing score. The Bobcats were quickly brought back to Earth in a 46-10 rout at the hands of Penn State last Saturday. Even after the Nittany Lions brought in the backups up big in the third quarter, they still managed to tack on three more touchdowns. Expect the Bobcats defense to once again have its hands full here. While Breece Hall is no longer storming out of the backfield for Iowa State, Jirehl Brock has impressed, running for 204 yards and a score on 43 carries. WR Xavier Hutchinson is already in midseason form, hauling in 19 catches of 226 yards and four touchdowns and should obliterate an overmatched Ohio secondary here. The Cyclones defense takes care of the rest. Take Iowa State (9*).

My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Coastal Carolina at 1 pm et on Saturday.

Buffalo is coming off a 37-31 home loss against Holy Cross last Saturday but let’s not get too down on the Bulls for that upset loss. Note that Holy Cross is one of the better FCS teams in the country and Buffalo was actually favored by less than a touchdown in that game. So now Buffalo goes on the road with an 0-2 record (it lost its opener by a 31-10 score at Maryland) to face undefeated Coastal Carolina. I expect the Bulls to give the Chanticleers all they can handle, just as they did in last year’s matchup between these two teams - a 28-25 Coastal Carolina victory in Buffalo. Note that while the Bulls ended up giving up 37 points in last week’s loss, they actually held Holy Cross off the scoreboard entirely for the game’s first 25 minutes. After jumping ahead 21-7 late in the second quarter it almost seemed like the Bulls felt they could shift into cruise control and be gifted a victory. It’s not as if Buffalo had its doors blown off in a tough road game at Maryland in Week 1. It gave up a couple of early touchdowns in that contest but held the Terrapins to just two more touchdowns over the game’s final 47 minutes. Coastal Carolina is off to a perfect 2-0 start after pulling out a win over FCS squad Gardner-Webb thanks to a late touchdown last Saturday. The Chanticleers actually didn’t score an offensive touchdown until past the midway mark of the second quarter in that game and that only came thanks to being gifted excellent field position on a muffed kickoff. While a 38-28 win over Army in the season-opener looks impressive at first glance, it’s important to keep in mind that the Black Knights have been a sieve defensively so far this season. As is the case with a lot of upstart schools that find some success, Coastal Carolina had to deal with plenty of key departures in the offseason and while this is still a very talented football team, I’m not convinced it will prove to be the same juggernaut we’ve seen over the last two seasons. Take Buffalo (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The Wolverines have passed every test through their first two games, hanging 51 points on Colorado State and 56 points on Hawaii. Now they get another cupcake matchup against Connecticut and I look for them to do more than enough offensively to help this one ‘over’ the total. Last Saturday we saw Michigan score six offensive touchdowns in the first half alone. I liked the way it closed that game, tacking on two more touchdowns even though the game had long been decided. It was a similar story in Week 1 against Colorado State as the Wolverines sputtered a little bit early, settling for three first half field goals (to go along with two touchdowns) but ended up tacking on three touchdowns in the game’s final 21 minutes. Connecticut has actually shown some signs of life offensively this season, scoring 20, 28 and 14 points through three games. While that may not seem like much, when you consider how punchless the Huskies have been in recent years, it’s a step in the right direction. Defensively, however, UConn remains a mess. Last week, it gave up five offensive touchdowns in the game’s first 43 minutes against Syracuse. The Huskies also got torched for three offensive touchdowns in an 11-minute stretch in the second quarter in their opener against Utah State. Take the over (8*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Air Force at 8 pm et on Friday.

We won with Air Force in its rout of Colorado last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade the Falcons as they head to Laramie to take on Wyoming on Friday. This projects are a relatively low-scoring game with a total in the mid-to-high 40's, which obviously favors the Cowboys catching north of two touchdowns. Air Force has averaged 27.8 points the last 67 times it has played with the total set between 42.5 and 49 points. Note that these teams match up every year in the Mountain West Conference. Air Force has scored more than 28 points just once in the last 14 meetings. The only time it did so it still scored 'only' 31 points. That might not be enough to cover the number here. Wyoming already has three games under its belt and seems to have found its identity, pounding the football with a terrific ground game led by RB Titus Swen. You can run on this Air Force defense noting that it has allowed FCS squad Northern Iowa and Colorado to each gain exactly 119 rushing yards, despite negative game script for both of those teams in lopsided contests in favor of the Falcons. Run the football, move the chains and effectively shorten the game. That has to be the gameplan for the Cowboys here and I believe it's one they can execute. When playing on the road off an ATS win, Air Force has outscored opponents by an average margin of only 3.2 points (67-game sample size). Take Wyoming (10*).

AFC West total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

In a division game on a short week at this early stage of the season, I'm not anticipating a lot of first half offensive fireworks between the Chargers and Chiefs on Thursday night. Note that this same matchup produced just 17 and 24 points in the first half in two meetings last year. The Chargers have seen six of their last seven September games stay 'under' the total in the first half and the 'under' is 9-4 in the first half in all Chargers games where the first half total has been set at 25 points or more going back to 2020. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have appeared in two Thursday night games over the last two seasons and both got off to low-scoring starts with the 'under' cashing in the first half. In the long-term picture, the 'under' is 35-19 in the first half in the Chiefs last 54 games played in the first month of the season. I'm not convinced the Kansas City offense is going to be quite as explosive as we saw in last week's rout of the Cardinals, noting that Arizona's blitz-happy nature on defense really opened things up for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. The Chargers can stay home a little more and still generate pressure with the likes of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the outside. On the flip side, the Chargers always seem to generate a ton of early season hype before fizzling late. I don't expect them to roll into Arrowhead and lay waste to a good Chiefs defense - at least not early in Thursday's contest. Take the first half under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Few believe the Seahawks will be able to mount any sort of offense against the Broncos vaunted defense on Monday night, certainly not with journeyman QB Geno Smith at the helm. While I don't envision Seattle staging an upset victory here, I do think it can contribute enough offense to help this one 'over' the reasonably priced total. First, let's talk about the Broncos. Denver's offense figures to be much improved with QB Russell Wilson representing a massive upgrade over Drew Lock, who is now the Seahawks backup QB. Wilson has a full compliment of weapons at his disposal to star the season with among the best 1-2 tandems both in the backfield and at the wide receiver position. On the flip side, the Broncos are a little banged-up on defense and could be vulnerable against the run in particular. That plays into the hands of what the Seahawks want to do and that's pound the football. Note that while most consider Geno Smith dust at this stage of his career, he did make three starts last season and showed a good rapport with WR DK Metcalf in particular, hooking up with him for 251 yards and four scores. Expect some offensive fireworks on Monday. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is one of the lowest posted totals on the Week 1 NFL board and it's warranted in my opinion. Cleveland's offense is likely going to be severely limited until QB Deshaun Watson can make his debut following an 11-game suspension. Jacoby Brissett has proven to be a serviceable backup QB but this is a far-from-ideal matchup as he sees his first true game action with his new team against what I consider to be an underrated Panthers defense. Carolina's pass rush should be able to camp out in the Browns backfield, should Cleveland elect to throw the ball often. The more likely game script from the Browns will involve plenty of running with the backfield tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. That's just fine as it helps keep the clock moving. Carolina will have a revenge-minded Baker Mayfield under center as he was named the starting quarterback in August. I'm not counting on a whole lot of splash plays from the Panthers aerial attack. It's basically a one-man show when it comes to the Carolina receiving corps with D.J. Moore likely to see the bulk of the targets but also the majority of the attention from Browns elite cornerback Denzel Ward. Christian McCaffrey is the x-factor for the Panthers offense and all indications are that he's healthy entering the 2022 campaign. Expect the Browns to funnel their defense to Carolina's elite dual-threat running back and should the Panthers elect to keep the ball on the ground or employ a short pass-centric attack, that only helps to keep the clock moving and effectively shortens this game. Take the under (8*).

NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This has the potential to be one of the most entertaining games on the Week 1 board. While we're dealing with a reasonably high posted total, I believe it could be even higher. Philadelphia is well-positioned to smash in this spot offensively. The Lions are an intriguing sleeper pick in the NFC North this season but that optimism has a lot more to do with their offense than their defense. That defense might just be awful and certainly doesn't get better after losing pass rusher Romeo Okwara to the PUP list. Philadelphia's offense should take flight in Jalen Hurts' second year as the starting QB. He'll be given plenty of help with an improved cast of receivers led by one of the best in the game in A.J. Brown. Perhaps what isn't getting enough attention is the strength of the Eagles offensive line, which should help give Hurts the opportunity to put up monster numbers this season. RB Miles Sanders and WR Devonta Smith are two keys at the skill positions that aren't being talked about enough in this offense either and set up well to go off in this particular matchup. Defensively, the Eagles are stout at the back-end but appear average at best up front and in the middle of the field. That plays right into the hands of a Lions offense that has two gamebreakers in RB De'Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown that are adept at attacking the middle of the football field. With Swift back healthy he's in for a monster season, operating behind an underrated Lions offensive line. I'm higher on QB Jared Goff than some, feeling that he's an excellent fit in this offense. We certainly saw him build terrific chemistry with St. Brown down the stretch last year (he had few other options to throw to at the time) and I'm confident that duo will pick up right where they left off here. While I like the Eagles to win this game, the Lions will undoubtedly be a 'tough out' playing in front of a rare packed house at Ford Field. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks. Take the over (10*).

AFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We've actually seen this line float down to the key number of -7 since opening. Last year, the Texans were a popular fade in Week 1 as they hosted the Jaguars. What did Houston do? It blew the doors off of its hapless opponent, crushing Jacksonville bettors in the process (myself included). It's a much different story this year. The general consensus is that the arrow is pointing up in Houston with seemingly only positive news coming out of camp and the preseason. I see this as a tough opening week matchup for the Texans, however, as they host the Colts and their new-look offense run by veteran QB Matt Ryan. I say new-look but it should be more of the same for Indianapolis with RB Jonathan Taylor once again the focal point. He absolutely ripped through the Texans in two meetings last season, gaining over 300 yards on 47 carries while also finding the end zone four times. That's not to say the Colts can't beat the Texans through the air as well. Houston's weakness on defense should lie in the secondary, where it used an early draft pick on CB Derek Stingley. While the Colts passing game doesn't look all that imposing at first glance, guys like WR Michael Pittman Jr. and TE Mo Alie-Cox have splash potential here. Houston's offense is going to be better this year, I'm confident of that as QB Davis Mills settles into his first full season as starter. This isn't the game where we see it though, at least not in my opinion, as the Colts defense put the clamps on Mills last year and should have little trouble doing so again here. Note that key run-stopper Shaquille Leonard was a full participant in Colts practice on Wednesday. While the Indianapolis defense does leave a lot to be desired at the back-end, its zone scheme works in its favor against a limited Texans receiving corps headlined by Brandin Cooks. There will be spots where we can successfully back Houston in an underdog role, likely sooner rather than later, but not this week. Take Indianapolis (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Mississippi State and Arizona at 11 pm et on Saturday.

We won with Mississippi State in its rout of Memphis last Saturday but I'll shift gears this week and back the 'over' as the Bulldogs take their show on the road to face upstart Arizona in Tucson. There was a lot to like about the Bulldogs offense last week as it scored four touchdowns in the game's first 28 minutes before adding three more in the second half. I liked the way they kept their foot on the gas for four quarters (what else would you expect from a Mike Leach offense?), tacking on a touchdown in the game's closing minutes after Memphis had narrowed the gap to 42-23 less than a minute earlier. The Mississippi State defense was able to pin its ears back and attack the Memphis offense after jumping ahead earlier. I expect a different game script to unfold this time around, however. That's because Arizona actually has a legitimate football team this year, as evidenced by last week's stunning 38-20 rout of San Diego State (the Aztecs were opening their brand new home stadium making the victory that much more impressive). The Wildcats offense looked much different with QB Jayden De Laura under center and UTEP transfer WR Jacob Cowing blowing the top off the Aztecs defense. De Laura threw for just shy of 300 yards and four touchdowns in the victory. San Diego State wasn't able to mount any sort of offensive attack but I think that had more to do with transfer QB Braxton Burmeister looking lost in his first game running a new offense (trailing by two touchdowns early in the second quarter didn't help the Aztecs as they're generally a front-running team that likes to pound the football and control the clock). Different story here as this matchup has true shootout potential. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona State and Oklahoma State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

We missed (badly) with the 'under' in Oklahoma State's season-opener against Central Michigan last week as the Cowboys got off to a red hot start and rolled to a 58-44 victory. I can't help but feel Oklahoma State was somewhat embarrassed by its defensive effort in that game though and look for a much cleaner performance against Arizona State this week. Note that Central Michigan threw the football 49 times in that contest. The Cowboys are likely to see nothing of that sort this week as Arizona State QB Emory Jones is as much a threat on the ground as through the air, the polar opposite of what they saw against Chippewas QB Daniel Richardson last week. I'm confident we'll see Oklahoma State's athletic defense contain Jones for the most part on Saturday. Arizona State cruised to a 40-3 win over Northern Arizona in its opener last week. We're talking about a Sun Devils offense going through an overhaul this season and while hanging 40 points on the board was no small feat, even against an FCS opponent, there was some cause for concern. Note that ASU didn't reach the end zone until nearly midway the second quarter in that game and proceeded to stall out and settle for field goals on three drives in NAU territory in the second half. ASU didn't reach the end zone again after scoring a touchdown less than three minutes into the second half. Again, it faces a much tougher challenge this week. Defensively, credit the Sun Devils for not giving an inch against the Lumberjacks - they easily could have gotten complacent after building an insurmountable lead. They yielded just 119 total yards and only six first downs in that contest. Their mettle will undoubtedly be tested this week but this is a talented unit that I believe can hang with the Cowboys offense. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times Oklahoma State has come off an 'over' result, as is the case here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Northern Illinois plus the points over Tulsa at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Northern Illinois proved to be the very definition of a 'tough out' last season, culminating with a lopsided victory in the MAC Championship Game followed by a gutsy 47-41 loss against a tremendous Coastal Carolina team during Bowl season. The Huskies didn't look all that impressive in a 34-27 season-opening victory against FCS squad Eastern Illinois last week but there were some positives to take away. Northern Illinois' offensive line figures to be a strength with plenty of experience returning and that held true in Week 1 as QB Rocky Lombardi was only sacked once and unlike last year, wasn't forced to run all that much (he had just one rush attempt in the game). There are questions around who will replace RB Jay Ducker but Harrison Waylee looked like a fine candidate last week, gaining 83 yards and adding a touchdown on 14 carries. The Huskies didn't allow a touchdown until the final three minutes of the third quarter against EIU last week. The fact that they gave up a pair of fourth quarters touchdowns won't sit well, however, and I expect a little more of a 'killer instinct' from the NIU defense here. Tulsa suffered a tough 40-37 double-overtime loss at Wyoming last week. Unlike NIU, Tulsa needs to rework its entire offensive line and that appeared to be a major problem last Saturday as it gave up four sacks in the loss. While the Tulsa defense actually held up better than it showed on paper (Wyoming scored only two offensive touchdowns in regulation time), it was also up against a Cowboys offense that looked putrid the week previous against Illinois. The Golden Hurricane defense will be taking a step up in class here. While Tulsa desperately needs a win here in its home opener, I simply feel that it is being asked to lay too many points. Take Northern Illinois (8*).

SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and Florida at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams enter Saturday's showdown in the Swamp off to 1-0 records. This rivalry has produced plenty of relatively low-scoring contests over the years. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time the two teams totalled more than 50 points. While Florida certainly impressed offensively behind a tremendous performance from QB Anthony Richardson in last week's upset win over Utah, it won't benefit from the same element of surprise against the Wildcats. It's not as if Florida tore through the Utes defense last Saturday. In fact, it only managed to score 14 points through the game's first three quarters. I came away impressed by the Gators defense as they allowed an early touchdown in the first four minutes but then held the Utes out of the end zone until the closing seconds of the third quarter. They also came up with a game-clinching interception in the end zone as the clock ticked down in the fourth quarter. Here, the Gators will benefit from facing a Kentucky offense that is reworking its offensive line after a host of departures (it yielded four sacks to QB Will Levis in the opener) and also dealing with the absence of standout RB Chris Rodriguez. Kentucky did score 37 points in last week's victory but that came against a middling MAC squad in Miami-Ohio. The Wildcats scored a touchdown midway through the first quarter but then didn't reach the end zone on offense again until being gifted terrific field position thanks to a Redhawks turnover early in the third quarter (they did return the second half kickoff for a touchdown as well). On the flip side, Kentucky gave up a touchdown in the first six minutes of that game but then held Miami-Ohio out of the end zone for the game's final 54 minutes. I can't help but feel the Wildcats defense is well ahead of the offense at this early stage of the season. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over Houston at 4 pm et on Saturday.

While Houston enters this game nationally-ranked I believe Texas Tech being installed as the favorite is warranted. The Cougars barely pulled out a 37-35 win over Texas-San Antonio last Saturday. While the Roadrunners were going to be a formidable opponent regardless, there was reason for concern around Houston coming out of that contest. The Cougars didn't reach the end zone until the second quarter and then proceeded to allow three consecutive UTSA touchdowns to fall behind 21-7 entering the fourth quarter. While they did ultimately wake up and rally, they also allowed UTSA to march down the field in just 20 seconds and kick a game-tying field goal in the closing seconds of the fourth quarter. It was a shaky performance all around from Houston. Texas Tech on the other hand looked like a well-oiled machine in a 63-10 rout of FCS squad Murray State. The Red Raiders did lose QB Tyler Shough to a shoulder injury in the victory but backup Donovan Smith stepped in and completed 14-of-17 passes for 221 yards and four touchdowns in relief. He saw plenty of playing time during his freshman season last year and I'm confident the offense will keep rolling along with Shough sidelined. Even with third-string QB Behren Morton in the game in the fourth quarter last Saturday, the Red Raiders were still able to tack on another touchdown. Texas Tech defeated Houston 38-21 in last year's meeting at AT&T Stadium. As much as Houston would like to exact its revenge here, I believe it will be hard-pressed to do so. Take Texas Tech (10*).

My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up for Air Force as it looks to improve to 2-0 on the season after last week's 48-17 rout of FCS squad Northern Iowa. The Falcons offense appeared to be in midseason form in that contest, scoring six touchdowns and racking up just shy of 700 yards of total offense. Colorado's defense actually held up as well as could have been expected, at least through the first three quarters, but still lost by a 38-13 score against TCU last Saturday, at home no less. Concerning was the fact that the Buffaloes had no response to TCU's halftime adjustments on offense, allowing four second half touchdowns, including three in an eight-minute span when the game was on the line in the fourth quarter. Offensively, Colorado didn't come up with a touchdown until the game was completely out of hand (the Horned Frogs led 38-6 at the time) in the game's final two minutes. Air Force's Week 1 victory could have been even more lopsided were it not for it allowing two late scores in the fourth quarter. I think that lack of focus on the defensive side of the football late actually helps our cause here and the Falcons know they'll have to display more of a killer instinct against a tougher opponent than they faced last week. These two teams last met in 2019 with Air Force prevailing by a 30-23 score. The talent gap has widened since in my opinion. While the Falcons do lose plenty of key pieces from last year's team, particularly on defense, I'm not convinced Colorado has the offense, which still lacks a true leader at quarterback, to take advantage. Take Air Force (9*).

My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Wisconsin at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

It's time to start giving Wazzou the respect it deserves. The Cougars have gone Bowling in six of the last seven seasons. They're a profitable 33-22 ATS the last 55 times they've checked in as an underdog priced between +10.5 and +21, as is the case here. While last week's narrow 24-17 victory over Idaho was unimpressive, I'm willing to give the Cougars a mulligan as they're working in a new offense with a number of new pieces. There were positives to take away. The ground game got rolling with former Wisconsin RB Nakia Watson gaining 117 yards on just 18 carries while also hauling in a couple of catches for 17 yards. Once QB Cam Ward settled in, he threw for three touchdowns over the game's final three quarters. There was a stretch where Washington State scored on three consecutive drives. Three lost fumbles contributed to the low-scoring result but that can be cleaned up. It's the Cougars defense that has the potential to be special this year in my opinion. While it came against lowly Idaho, Washington State did rack up seven sacks to go along with a pair of interceptions in last week's victory. The secondary might be the weak spot early on but does Wisconsin have the type of offense to take advantage? The Badgers rolled to a 38-0 rout of FCS squad Illinois State in their season-opener. Note that the offense didn't reach the end zone until early in the second quarter in that contest (Wisconsin did score on a pick-six late in the first quarter). As usual, QB Graham Mertz was little more than a game manager with RB Braelon Allen doing much of the heavy lifting, running for 148 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries (96 of those yards came on one touchdown run). While I'm not about to call for an outright upset, I do think the Cougars will be a 'tough out' on Saturday afternoon in Madison. Take Washington State (8*).

AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Navy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

This total has dropped since opening, an overreaction to Navy's ugly 14-7 loss to FCS squad Delaware in its season-opener last week. Here, I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair as the Midshipmen look to avenge last year's 35-17 rout at the hands of Memphis. The Tigers dropped a 49-23 decision at Mississippi State last Saturday (we won with the Bulldogs in that game). Their defense, which struggled last year, has lost a number of key parts and it certainly showed against Mississippi State as they gave up five touchdowns in the first 35 minutes. Even when the game had long been decided, the Bulldogs were able to tack on two touchdowns in the final six minutes of the fourth quarter. The good news is, Memphis did manage to score 20+ points despite going entirely one-dimensional early on. RB Jeyvon Ducker - a transfer from Northern Illinois - was a bright spot, running for 63 yards and a score on just five carries. I do think the potential is there for the Tigers offense to go off against an average Navy defense that certainly doesn't get better by losing a talent like Diego Fagot to the NFL. Fagot isn't the only departure from a Navy defense that wasn't all that great to begin with last year (as I mentioned earlier, the Midshipmen gave up 35 points in last year's matchup against Memphis). Navy's offense was putrid against Delaware last week. There's no reason to expect the Midshipmen to be that bad offensively here in 2022. They did gain 319 total yards in that setback and had 17 first downs compared to Delaware's 13. Three failed fourth down conversions contributed to Navy's downfall in that contest. I believe the potential is there for this one to go back-and-forth all afternoon long and we're being offered a favorable total to work with when you consider last year's meeting saw a closing number of 56. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Southern Miss and Miami at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Miami scored a whopping 70 points in its season-opening win over FCS squad Bethune-Cookman - a statement performance for a team that enters the 2022 campaign with sky-high expectations. While the Hurricanes should stay undefeated here, I don't expect them to find the going nearly as easy offensively. Bethune-Cookman quite simply couldn't keep its offense on the field early in last week's game, allowing 42 points in the first half alone. I do think Southern Miss can do a better job of that with an effective ground attack led by Frank Gore Jr., who ran for 178 yards on 32 carries in last week's triple-overtime loss to Liberty. The Golden Eagles beefed up their offensive line through the transfer portal during the offseason and it appeared to pay immediate dividends as they gave up just one sack and ran for 252 yards as a team in the season-opener. While they were able to move the football, the question remains whether the Golden Eagles offense can score with any sort of consistency. They didn't find the end zone until nearly five minutes into the third quarter against Liberty. That was one of just two offensive touchdowns in the entire game, which included three overtime periods. Now they face a Miami squad that gave up just one touchdown last week and that came after the game was already well in hand midway through the second quarter (28-3 was the score at that time). Defensively, I'll give Southern Miss some credit. It didn't yield a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half against Liberty last week. While Miami poses a much more difficult challenge, I'm confident USM can at the very least keep the final score respectable, lending itself to a lower-scoring affair than most are anticipating. Take the under (8*).

Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and New Mexico at 9 pm et on Friday.

This total has already dropped from the opener and I believe the move is warranted. Boise State was stunned 34-17 on the road against Oregon State in its season-opener last Saturday. While most are expecting the Broncos to take out their frustrations on a hapless New Mexico squad on Friday (and that very well could happen), I'm not anticipating a shootout. The Broncos actually benched QB Hank Bachmeier after a shaky start against the Beavers last week. While this might look like an ideal bounce-back spot at first glance, Boise State can ill afford to overlook the Lobos, who are coming off a 41-0 rout of FCS squad Maine last week. While it's highly unlikely we see New Mexico hang another crooked number on the scoreboard, I'm confident its defense can hang. This is an experienced and talented group that got off to about as good of a start as you could hope for, holding Maine to just 118 total yards in the shutout victory. Boise State didn't even manage to score a point until a field goal nearly three minutes into the third quarter against Oregon State. It didn't find the end zone until the final three minutes of that third quarter, when the game was already all but out of reach. This isn't the same Boise State offensive juggernaut that we've seen in years' past. While their offense remains a question mark, I certainly expect a better performance from the Broncos defense this week. New Mexico did put up 41 points in its season-opening win but it was actually held scoreless through the first quarter and there weren't a whole lot of explosive plays. Kansas transfer QB Miles Kendrick threw for only 170 yards, the Lobos leading rusher tallied just 58 yards and their top receiver racked up only 54 yards. Maine simply couldn't get off the field defensively but we can anticipate a much different story playing out here, noting that Boise State shut out New Mexico in last year's meeting. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Louisville at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

While it garnered little attention leading up to last week's season-opener, UCF looks like the real deal here in 2022. The Knights kicked off their campaign with a resounding 56-10 win over FCS squad South Carolina State. While the opposition in that game left a lot to be desired there was still a lot to like about the Knights performance. It took them less than a quarter to jump ahead by three touchdowns and while the offense was humming, I was equally impressed by the defense. UCF held South Carolina State out of the end zone until nearly midway through the third quarter and didn't yield another score after that. Now comes an admittedly tougher matchup against Louisville on Friday night at the Bounce House. The Cardinals are coming off a demoralizing season-opening loss at Syracuse and while it's extremely early you can't help but feel head coach Scott Satterfield's days as sideline chief could be numbered. Louisville couldn't muster any sort of offensive attack in that loss, scoring a touchdown with just over a minute remaining in the first quarter but then not coming up with a single score the rest of the way. I also didn't like the way the defense folded in the fourth quarter, allowing a pair of touchdowns when the game was still in reach. Noting that Louisville took last year's meeting between these two teams in Kentucky, I look for the revenge-minded Knights to get some payback here. Take Central Florida (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

For the second straight year, the NFL has scheduled a potential shootout in the Thursday night opener as the Bills head to Los Angeles to challenge the defending Super Bowl champion Rams. Buffalo loses offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to the Giants head coaching job but I expect the train to keep rolling with Ken Dorsey, who has been working with the offense and Josh Allen in particular for the last three seasons, taking over the play-calling reins. Not much should change as far as the Bills offensive gameplan. They want to play fast and put the ball in the hands of their playmakers, led by WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, who many have pegged for a breakout season given Buffalo's offseason departures at the position. I like the addition of second-round draft pick, RB James Cook, who should add another element to the Bills short passing game. While the Rams are thought of as an elite defensive team, they actually proved vulnerable against the better passing attacks they faced last year, with little help in the secondary around standout corner Jalen Ramsey. The Rams offense catches a break with the Bills missing their top corner in Tre'Davious White. Rams WR Cooper Kupp presents a mismatch for most opposing defenses and the Bills are no different. While Buffalo's offense continues to get better with each passing year, its defense doesn't get better by losing White to the PUP list. Keep an eye on Rams offseason acquisition, WR Allen Robinson, who has to be ecstatic to get out of Chicago and into this ultra-efficient offense led by QB Matt Stafford. While not always flashy, the Rams offense is capable of keeping pace with the Bills in this passing-friendly environment indoors at SoFi Stadium on Thursday. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

I see Mississippi State as a program on the way up in the SEC, but one that isn't being talked about nearly enough. This is a very manageable opening week matchup against a Memphis squad that needs to replace too many key parts on both sides of the football.

Yes, Memphis will have Seth Henigan back at QB but you don't get better replacing the likes of WR Calvin Austin and TE Sean Dykes. The Tigers offense will likely be fine but it's going to take some time to ramp up and this is a nightmarish Week 1 road tilt.

Mississippi State returns the bulk of the talent that led to a promising season on defense a year ago. The potential is there for this group to be even better in 2022.

Of course, the Bulldogs offense is the real star of the show with Mike Leach getting this unit up to speed under the guidance of QB Will Rogers - who I consider to be one of the more underrated passers in the nation. The ground game may not be all that explosive but the potential is there to be better working behind an offensive line that returns the interior. I expect that o-line to bully a relatively green defensive front. Take Mississippi State (8*).

CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on Army plus the points over Coastal Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday.

It was a tremendous run for Coastal Carolina, going an incredible 14-2 over the last two seasons. Prior to that we saw three consecutive 2-6 campaigns from the Chanticleers as they made the adjustment to life in FBS. While they're unlikely to return to those depths again, there's simply too much turnover to instill much confidence entering the 2022 campaign. I see this as a tough opening week matchup against an experienced Army squad that will continue its ascension this year.

The Black Knights are no doubt still stinging from last December's loss to Navy but they responded with a huge Bowl victory over Missouri and now draw an opponent that will certainly have their full attention to start this season.

Army returns the majority of the offense that rolled through the opposition last year but I believe the defense could be the key. The Black Knights got torched through the air in 2021 but now the seondary returns a ton of experience and the performance of that unit could be the difference-maker between a good and a great 2022 season. The good news here is that Coastal Carolina is working in some new pieces at wide receiver after losing a ton of talent from last year's offense. While the experience at quarterback helps the Chanticleers cause with Grayson McCall back in the fold, his supporting cast might take some time to come around.

Coastal Carolina is forced to make wholesales changes to its linebacking corps this season and that hurts in a matchup like this. Look for Army's triple-option to get rolling and ultimately help the Black Knights pull away for a key road victory to open the season. Take Army (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and East Carolina at 12 noon et on Saturday.

While this one is being priced as a potential shootout, I think we could be in for something closer resembling a slugfest.

N.C. State has high hopes entering the 2022 campaign and if you’ve followed this program over the years, you know that high expectations aren’t always a good thing in Raleigh.

While the offense does get standout QB Devin Leary back, his supporting cast needs some work. You don’t get better by losing an offensive line anchor like Ikem Ekwonu, who has moved on to greener pastures with the Carolina Panthers. This is also an offense that needs to have the ground game going to truly take off and the Wolfpack lose their top two running backs from a year ago.

Unlike the offense, the defense should be ready to rock right out of the gates. Only 13 teams in the entire country finished ahead of N.C. State in terms of points per game allowed last season. The potential is there to be even better this year with a ton of returning talent and experience across the board.

East Carolina carries a reputation of being an explosive offensive team that doesn’t play a lick of defense. That may have been true a number of years ago but isn’t necessarily the case anymore. Sure, the Pirates can score, but like N.C. State they’ll be working in plenty of new parts outside of QB Holton Ahlers. One thing is for sure, the Pirates want to run the football and will undoubtedly be looking to control the time of possession and effectively shorten this game to give themselves the best chance of staging an upset as a sizeable underdog against a nationally-ranked opponent on Saturday.

ECU hasn’t been able to hang its hat on its defense for years. That could change in 2022 though. Even without any semblance of a pass rush, the Pirates were able to hang around the middle of the pack in the AAC from a defensive standpoint last year. Now the experience and talent is there to take a big step forward. As I mentioned earlier, the Wolfpack aren’t exactly working with a full cupboard in terms of offensive talent, at least not at this early stage of the season, and I see this as a matchup the Pirates defense can handle in Week 1. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Old Dominion at 7 pm et on Friday.

It's not going to be easy for Virginia Tech to replace do-it-all QB Braxton Burmeister this season (he transferred to San Diego State). Not only that but the Hokies have a new offensive coordinator in Tyler Bowen who will look to jumpstart an offense that sputtered at the best of times last year.

Not only is Burmeister gone but so are the Hokies top two wide receivers from a year ago. While I do like former Temple standout Jadan Blue, he like new QB Grant Wells, will take some time to get acclimated with the new offense. To put it simply, there are just too many new parts to expect this offense to rock right out of the gates in 2022.

The good news is, the Hokies defense has a lot more returning faces to a group that was solid a year ago and has the potential to be special here in 2022. The secondary could be an early weakness but I'm not convinced Old Dominion will be able to take full advantage.

The Monarchs do have plenty of returnees on offense but this is still an ACC vs. Sun Belt matchup so don't count on an offensive explosion here in Week 1. ODU knows the path to an upset win here is controlling the tempo and controlling the clock and I think it can do that to some extent thanks in large part to four of five returning starters on the offensive line and a terrific backfield tandem in Blake Watson and Elijah Davis.

ODU's defense struggled against the pass a year ago, but again, I'm not sure the Hokies have the pieces in place to take advantage here in Week 1. This is without question an average Monarchs defense but it will benefit from matching up against a very average Hokies offense here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Oklahoma State at 7 pm et on Thursday.

It may surprise you to find out that Central Michigan finished 24th in the entire country in total offense last season. So perhaps it's understandable that we're dealing with a total just shy of 60 in this season-opener against Oklahoma State.

The issue for the Chips this year, as if often the case with these smaller schools, is roster turnover. Last year's standout WR Kalil Pimpleton is trying out for the Detroit Lions. The offensive line lost a pair of tackles to the NFL. There are going to be some growing pains early on but I do think the Chips can at the very least move the football consistently enough to keep the offense on the field for extended stretches, even in the face of a fierce defensive opponent in Oklahoma State. One thing is for sure, Central Michigan will have little interest in getting involved in a high-scoring shootout here in Week 1. The uglier the game, the better the chances of the Chips staging a massive upset.

Not unlike the offense, the CMU defense will be missing a number of key pieces from last year's group. It's not a surprising that a number of the Chips top defenders from a year ago were hot commodities in the transfer portal (and the NFL Draft) as this is a unit that ranked tops in the entire country in tackles for loss. Interestingly, the secondary was the weakness last year but could turn out to be a strength here in 2022. I don't anticipate the Chips defense trying to be too cute in this difficult matchup, instead look for a gameplan that will involve keeping everything in front of them in an effort to keep the Cowboys explosive offense in check.

Oklahoma State has had a tendency to get off to slow starts offensively in recent years, putting up 16 points in a win over Tulsa two years ago and 23 points in a victory over FCS squad Missouri State in last season's opener.

The return of QB Spencer Sanders will have most expecting the Cowboys offense to come storming out of the gate. I do think there were enough offseason losses to warrant some pause as far as expectations go, at least in Week 1. The Cowboys lose two starters on the offensive line including current Philadelphia Eagle Josh Sills. Top wide receiver Tay Martin is off to the NFL as well. That's not to mention the absence of standout RB duo Jaylen Warren and Dezmon Jackson.

No team registered more sacks last season than Oklahoma State and while there are a number of notable departures on defense, those returning and those shuffling in are exceptional. The return of Trace Ford from injury only adds to an already dominant pass rush. Let's keep it brief by saying there are just enough key pieces moving on to allow the Chips to at least have a hope of moving the chains and ultimately keeping the Oklahoma State offense off the field long enough to help keep this one 'under' the generous total, but don't expect any miracles from the CMU offense. Take the under (10*).

CFB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and New Mexico State at 2 pm et on Saturday August 27th.

This total has been dropping since opening in the mid-to-high 50's but I believe we still have plenty of wiggle room at the current number. We actually cashed with the 'under' in New Mexico's season-opener last year and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here.

Nevada isn't the same team that lit it up under the leadership of dynamic duo QB Carson Strong and WR Romeo Doubs in recent years. Both have moved on with Doubs currently turning heads at Green Bay Packers training camp. Projected starting QB this year, Nate Cox was charged with a DUI earlier this summer, leaving his availability in question leading up to the season-opener. It's no sure thing that he'll even lock up the starting QB job, regardless of his legal trouble, even after he received some playing time during the regular season and started the Wolf Pack's Bowl game last year.

I would anticipate the Wolf Pack leaning heavily on their experienced 1-2 punch at running back, at least early in the campaign. Their defense should also be ahead of the offense in the early stages of the campaign, even though that unit loses plenty of talent from last year's team. It was a deep defense a year ago with plenty of experienced players ready to step in and take on bigger roles this year. DT Dom Peterson is an anchor up front while Michigan transfer at CB, Darion Warren-Green should lead the back-end.

New Mexico State is coming off another lost season in 2021 and the potential is there for this to be a down year as well, before the Aggies finally find a home in Conference-USA next season.

New Mexico State has another QB battle brewing in August but that's not necessarily a good thing as that only means that no one seems capable or ready to step up and take the reins. Expect NMSU to once again rely on pounding the football behind an offensive line that returns three starters from a year ago. New head coach Jerry Kill has a run-first mentality and with a questionable-at-best aerial attack, there's even more reason to keep the ball on the ground early this season.

The Aggies return eight starters from last year's defense. Whether that's a good or bad thing is up for debate considering just how bad that unit was in 2021. I'm willing to be a little more optimistic than most as I like the pieces the Aggies have in place on the line and in the linebacking corps. The question is whether the secondary can hold up, but this is a favorable matchup against a rebuilding Nevada passing game that still isn't set on a starting QB, and whose best talent might be Arizona transfer WR B.J. Casteel who is learning a new offense and will have had precious few reps with whoever ends up the starter at QB. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Florida Atlantic at 7 pm et on Saturday August 27th.

This has the potential to be one of the few shootouts on the board in Week 0 action.

Charlotte returns most of the key parts from last year's offense which showed flashes of brilliance over the course of the season. Of course, playing in C-USA where defense is optional, it helps to have some explosiveness on offense and the 49ers have just that with dual-threat returning QB Chris Reynolds and all three of his top receivers from last season in Victor Tucker, Grant DuBose and Elijah Spencer. The duo of Tucker and DuBose has the potential to be one of the best WR tandems in the conference.

The 49ers also boast two excellent running backs with Calvin Camp and Shadrick Byrd. The potential is there for more big gains out of the backfield running behind an experienced offensive line that returns four starters from a year ago.

Defense was a problem for Charlotte last year and likely will be again in 2022. The 49ers get just one of their top four tacklers back from a year ago. This is a group that doesn't look all that bad on paper but there are no true standouts that can really knock the likes of a Florida Atlantic offense off course.

The Owls still have a bitter taste in their mouths after falling apart late last season, losing their final four games to miss out on Bowl eligibility. There's plenty of reason for optimism heading into 2022, however, as QB N'Kosi Perry comes back for a sixth season to lead an offense that's brimming with talent.

While Perry can sling it and has plenty of returnees to work with at the wide receiver position, I believe the Owls ground attack could be its strength early on. Watch out for RB Johnny Ford who broke off better than 6.0 yards per rush last year and will run behind an offensive line that figures to be much-improved with four returning starters.

I believe the FAU secondary could be an issue in the early going with standout CB Zyon Gilbert having moved on to the NFL. There will be plenty of green defensive backs left on an island for the Owls in this one and that doesn't bode well against the 49ers loaded WR corps that can blow the top off even the best of secondaries. Take the over (9*).

My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Los Angeles at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

NOTE: There's a substantial disparity between numbers available for this total depending on the sportsbook. There are 24.5's to be found (at the time of writing), priced between -130 and 140 and I recommend laying the juice to get that more favorable total.

We missed with the first half 'under' in the AFC Championship Game in excruciating fashion as the Chiefs put on a bad tackling clinic with just a couple of minutes remaining, allowing Bengals RB Samaje Perine to take a screen pass from midfield all the way to the house to spoil our ticket. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in the Super Bowl, however. Note that the Bengals have averaged just 9.6 points in the first half on the road this season, where the first half 'under' has cashed in eight of their 10 games. As for the Rams, they've seen the first half 'under' come through in seven straight games. In 10 games at So-Fi Stadium this season we've seen the first half 'under' cash on six occasions, with those 10 contests totalling an average of just 22.2 points. We know that the Super Bowl has had a tendency to get off to slow starts offensively, particularly of late. In fact, three of the last seven Super Bowl matchups have gone scoreless through the first quarter. Considering the unfamiliarity between these two teams I would anticipate a bit of a feeling out process early in this one. The Bengals need to get their run game going early in order to keep the Rams vaunted pass rush honest. Same goes for the Rams, albeit for different reasons as they have their full compliment of backs in Sony Michel, Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson Jr. and let's not forget, this isn't just Joe Burrow's first Super Bowl appearance - the same goes for Rams QB Matt Stafford. Perhaps a bit of a tentative start is to be expected. Take the first half under (9*).

NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Los Angeles at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

There's a long line of Super Bowl underdogs that currently own rings. Just last year the Bucs blasted the Chiefs in an underdog role. We're not all that far removed from the Eagles upsetting Tom Brady's Patriots. The Broncos beat the Panthers as 5.5-point underdogs in Peyton Manning's swan song. I grew up watching my favorite team at the time, John Elway's Denver Broncos upset Brett Favre and the Packers. And of course who could forget the Patriots beating the Greatest Show on Turf to earn Tom Brady's first ring, or Eli and the Giants upsetting Tom and the Patriots and spoiling their undefeated season. That's all to say, there's certainly no reason to count out the 'underdog' Bengals here as they head into 'enemy territory' (I use that term loosely in this case) to take on the favored Rams in Los Angeles on Sunday. I'll be honest, I didn't expect Cincinnati to be here. In fact, I didn't expect it to last beyond the Divisional Round. But this is a team that has absolutely put together something special, playing its best football at the most critical time, just as we've seen from virtually all of the previous Super Bowl winners. The Rams are certainly a formidable opponent but I actually like the matchup for the Bengals. Yes, Cincinnati's offensive line has been under fire all season, and certainly in these playoffs. It will undoubtedly be under heavy duress at times on Sunday. But this is a unit did take a step in the right direction against the Chiefs and with two full weeks to prepare for this game, I'm confident the Bengals can come up with a scheme to keep Joe Burrow upright, or at least give him some time to take advantage of some of the matchup advantages they do possess through the air against anyone other than Jalen Ramsey on the other side of the field. Cincinnati doesn't have the 'name' talent on defense, but this is a group that has gotten stronger and I believe one that will benefit from facing a Rams offense that doesn't boast all that consistent of a ground attack. And finally, on the biggest stage of all, give me Joe Burrow - yes, even in just his second NFL season, his first full one at that after he suffered a devastating injury last season - over Matt Stafford. You can be sure Burrow is aware that these opportunities don't always come around again. Just ask Dan Marino. The Bengals are here and I look for them to capitalize. For further support, note that the Rams are a horrid 3-12 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.5 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of between 3.5 and 7.0 points going back to last season, outscored by a minuscule 0.4 points on average in that spot. Take Cincinnati (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between the AFC and NFC at 3 pm et on Saturday.

I rarely get involved in the Pro Bowl as there doesn't tend to be any sort of edge to be found. This year I'm willing to make an exception, however. The NFL regularly adjusts the rules for the Pro Bowl and this year is no different. Those rule adjustments are generally made to favor the offenses and improve player safety, while also speeding the game up to provide a more entertaining 'All-Star Game' experience for the fans. Among the changes include forcing the defenses to use a 4-3 alignment for the entire game, limiting the number of defensive backs on the field. That certainly serves to open things up for the aerial attacks and creates a number of mismatches for the tight ends in particular as they often end up matched up against linebackers with little coverage ability. There is of course no blitzing allowed, serving to provide mostly clean pockets for the quarterbacks all afternoon long. We'll also see a two-minute warning in each quarter along with a change of possession at the end of each quarter, forcing the teams to employ an aggressive offensive gameplan at the end of each quarter, much like we're accustomed to seeing at the end of the first half. In another interesting quirk, the goalposts are just 14-feed wide rather than the standard 18-feet, six inches. While that leads to more difficult field goals for the kickers, it also lends itself to more aggressive play-calling, perhaps leading to more sevens on the board rather than threes. Some of these changes were made perhaps to improve the appeal of the game after a string of three consecutive dull, low-scoring games from 2017 through 2019. Last year's Pro Bowl was cancelled due to Covid-19 but the last time we saw some of these rules in place in the 2020 edition, a total of 71 points were scored in an relatively entertaining affair. Expect more of the same here. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Sunday.

The 49ers limitations with a banged-up Jimmy Garoppolo running the offense are real. If not for that late comeback against these same Rams in Week 18 we would be talking about a team that scored 23 points or less in five straight games heading into this one. I'm not convinced we'll suddenly see them bust out in this, the third matchup between these familiar NFC West foes this season. The Rams offense had little trouble (other than turnovers) carving up the Bucs defense last Sunday. I think we see a different story unfold here, however. While Matt Stafford has been terrific through the first two playoff games, he hasn't really faced a whole lot of resistance. Here, I'm confident he will against a Niners defense that isn't going to turn blitz-happy the way the Bucs defense did last week, which opened the door for Stafford to find open receivers all game long. Note that the Rams have scored 30+ points in consecutive games for only the second time this season. The last time that happened, they followed it up with a low-scoring 20-10 home win over Seattle the next week. For San Francisco, with an ailing Garoppolo going up against a fierce Rams pass rush, not to mention Trent Williams battling a possible high-ankle sprain, this one will need to be 'managed' just as we saw in the last six quarters of action (since Jimmy G. suffered the shoulder injury in the second quarter against Dallas). The fact that we're working with a fairly low posted total (by today's NFL standards) is the only thing that has me limiting my bet somewhat here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Sunday.

Everyone seems to be buying what the Rams are selling following last Sunday's big win over the Bucs in Tampa. I'm just not convinced we'll see Sean McVay exercise his own demons against Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers on Sunday. First of all, home field advantage is seemingly once again being factored in here, even though we're more than likely to see more red and gold than blue and yellow in the crowd at So-Fi Stadium on Sunday. Not that it matters anyway as the 49ers walked into rather severe conditions in ice cold, snowy Green Bay last Saturday and came away victorious even after things looked extremely dire late. That's what I like about this 49ers squad - they don't quit. There's no question the Niners are limited here with Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with multiple injuries. He's not the only one banged-up as Trent Williams is questionable to play at all due to an ankle injury although I can't see him sitting this one out. They've been game-planning around those limitations for weeks now, and I believe they're more than comfortable operating as such here as well. I quite simply have more faith in the Niners than I do in the Rams right now, noting that they're on an incredible 4-0 SU run in an underdog role - a streak that started with a win over the Rams on Monday Night Football back in mid-November. The fact that we're able to grab north of a field goal is an added bonus. Take San Francisco (7*).

NFL Playoffs First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 3:05 pm et on Sunday,.

The Chiefs have now seen the first half 'over' cash in five straight games. I believe that streak comes to an end on Sunday. The stakes are obviously sky-high in this one as Kansas City looks to advance to a third consecutive Super Bowl while the Bengals look to get there well ahead of schedule in the Joe Burrow era. There's been a pretty solid pattern developing with Bengals first half totals away from home. Cincinnati has scored just 9.6 points on average in the first half on the road this season - north of three points fewer than their overall first half scoring average. While the Chiefs don't figure to generate the same level of pressure on Burrow that the Titans did last week, Kansas City still boasts a capable defense that has excelled in the first half at home this season, giving up just 9.1 points on average. The Bengals defense wasn't pushed all that hard by the Titans last Saturday but it will be here. With that being said, this is a capable defense that I believe can hold up well, at least in the early stages of this game. I certainly don't expect to see the Bengals serve as a 'swinging gate' the way they did in their regular season meeting with the Chiefs, when they gave up a whopping 28 first half points. Keep in mind, after making halftime adjustments, they held the Chiefs vaunted offense to just three points in the entire second half, so we do know they're capable. I'm not convinced that either team wants to get involved in the type of shootout we saw in Cincinnati. Both offenses are certainly capable but effectively shortening this game might be the best course of action for both squads given the talent on the opposing sideline. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in the first half over the last three seasons with the Chiefs having gained an average of over 450 total yards per contest over their last three games, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average first half total of just 24.1 points. Take the first half under (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

This game obviously has the makings of an instant classic. I believe we're getting the Chiefs at a discount here after Buffalo got the monkey off its back with a blowout win here at Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season. The Bills offense was unstoppable on that night but the Chiefs defense was playing awful football at the time, having opened the season allowing 29, 36, 30 and 30 points in their first four games. While the schedule has certainly played a role, Kansas City enters this contest having given up 21 points or less in nine of 13 games since that loss to the Bills. Buffalo played a near perfect game, particularly on offense, against the division rival Patriots last Saturday. I don't expect it to come close to matching that level of efficiency here. Most are looking at this game as a 'changing of the guard' in the AFC but I don't believe Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are done yet. They obviously have unfinished business of their own after a poor showing against Tom Brady and the Bucs in last year's Super Bowl. I have a lot of respect for the Bills so there's really not much I can say to knock them here. Simply put, I feel the line is too short with not enough respect being given to a complete Chiefs squad that has a real home field advantage, particularly at this time of year, at Arrowhead Stadium. Take Kansas City (9*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

These two teams have been involved in a pair of high-scoring shootouts going back to last year's playoffs so it's not surprising that we're dealing with a total in the mid-50's in advance of Sunday's Divisional Round showdown in Kansas City. I believe that total will prove too high. Both defenses are for the most part healthy entering this clash (with the exception of Tre'Davious White for the Bills who has been sidelined for quite some time). While the offenses generally get all of the press, the two defenses are elite. The Bills check in allowing just 17.5 points per game on the road this season. The Chiefs give up 17.9 points per game at home. While the Chiefs have supreme confidence in their ability to go back-and-forth with any offense in the league, there is some reason for caution here after Buffalo rolled up well over 400 yards and hung 38 points on them here at Arrowhead Stadium back in October. I think it would be foolish to expect a similar performance from the Buffalo offense here, however. The Chiefs defense was a mess going into that matchup, having allowed 29, 36, 30 and 30 points over their first four games of the season. Since then, Kansas City has allowed 21 points or less in nine of 13 games and that 21-point performance came by way of a defensive score from the Steelers last Sunday. The Bills defense has had a giant chip on its shoulder ever since getting run over by the Patriots ground game in that memorable Monday night affair back in early December. They've given up just 77 points over their last five games. I have a lot of respect for both offenses and they'll undoubtedly find some success in this game. But we're talking about an extremely high total here - too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*).

NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 3 pm et on Sunday.

I'm a strong believer that the 'revenge' angle means something when it comes to Tom Brady. While it's true that some teams will get the better of Brady at times, he generally gets the last laugh when the games matter the most. Case in point, the Saints have defeated the Bucs four times going back to the start of last season. However, when the chips were down in the NFL Divisional Round last year, Brady guided the Bucs to a win in what turned out to be Drew Brees' final NFL game, at the Superdome no less. I make that point because here Brady will be facing the Rams for the third time since joining the Bucs at the start of last season. The Rams have got the better of Brady and the Bucs on both previous occasions including a fairly dominant 34-24 victory back in Week 3 this season. We all know about the Bucs injury issues. They're missing a number of key contributors, particularly on the offensive side of the football. They suffered more injuries in last Sunday's win over the Eagles with both Ryan Jensen and Tristan Wirfs, two integral parts of the offensive line, going down and questionable to play against the Rams. Regardless, I like Brady and the Bucs chances of rising to the occasion and living to fight at least one more game in these playoffs. The Rams lopsided win over the Cardinals on Monday night is fresh in the minds of most bettors and they're certainly being given considerable respect with this line sitting at the standard three points for home field advantage. I haven't been sold on the Rams all season and I'm not about to change course here. I have the ultimate confidence in the Bucs defense stepping up and rattling Matt Stafford in this one. The Rams have a track record of failing to deliver when the chips are down under Sean McVay and I expect nothing different here. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

The 49ers will undoubtedly be a popular play not only against the spread but on the moneyline in this game as well. After all, the Niners have been a trendy Super Bowl pick since earning their way into the playoffs with an upset win in Los Angeles in Week 18 - a game they trailed 17-0 but rallied to win in overtime. We won with the Niners in last Sunday's 'upset' victory in Dallas but I'm not interested in going back to the well here. The Packers have fallen out of favor with bettors a little bit after dropping the cash in three of their last four games. I like the fact they draw a familiar opponent here, having faced the Niners three times since the start of 2020, including a wild 30-28 win in Santa Clara back in late September. While the Niners suffered a couple of key injuries to Nick Bosa and Fred Warner in last Sunday's win in Dallas (it remains to be seen whether they'll be able to play on Saturday), the Packers have been getting healthier and may have standout CB Jaire Alexander (among others) back for this game. Here, we'll note that the Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times they've played at home after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 18.2 points in that situation. The 49ers find themselves in a poor situation here, noting that winning teams that are on the road catching between 3.5 and 10 points that are coming off consecutive SU road victories, when facing a winning opponent, have gone a miserable 7-28 ATS and have been outscored by an average margin of 13.0 points the last 35 times that situation has come up. Take Green Bay (8*).

My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'm not sure I'm in the minority in saying that the Titans are probably one of the weaker one-seeds in the AFC in recent years. They benefited from a very manageable schedule over the second half of the regular season, with a number of close calls along the way that could have really gone either way. With that being said, they catch a break here hosting a Bengals squad that managed to walk away victorious thanks to a goal-line stand at the end of the fourth quarter against the Raiders, but lost a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football in that game. That's a little-talked about aspect of grabbing the one-seed and the bye that goes along with it. It not only gives a team much-needed rest but it also eliminates the potential of losing key players to injury during the Wild Card round. Here, the Bengals will be without Larry Ogunjobi and could also be missing Trey Hendrickson and Mike Daniels. Even if one of the latter two can't go it would be a major blow. Of course, the Titans will have RB Derrick Henry back in the fold giving them a massive boost. The Titans have had their share of playoff disappointment in recent years, but I look for them to prevail on Saturday and we'll lock in the line early to take advantage of what is likely to look like a discounted price later in the week. Take Tennessee (8*).

NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

We got what we wanted with a relatively low-scoring game in the Bengals playoff debut last Saturday. Cincinnati has had a tendency to ease off the gas offensively in games where it hasn't needed to trade scores and we certainly saw that against the Raiders. With that being said, there was nothing I saw from the Bengals offense in that game that gave me pause looking ahead to playing the 'over' in this matchup. Cincinnati was able to move the football up and down the field with little resistance against the Raiders and I like the way it matches up against the Titans as well. Tennessee faced an extremely soft stretch of defensive opponents over the second half of the season. Look at their lineup of opponents going back to Week 10; New Orleans, Houston, New England, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, San Francisco (in a game where Jimmy Garoppolo injured his thumb), Miami and Houston again. Not surprisingly, the Titans defense posted some solid numbers over that stretch while their offense was able to tread water and do just enough to earn the number-one seed. Now the Titans defense will certainly be tested, but I also think their offense will be more than up to the challenge, noting that they're expected to get RB Derrick Henry back on the field while the Bengals lost a number of key defensive cogs to injury in last week's win, with Larry Ogunjobi already ruled out and Trey Hendrickson and Mike Daniels' status still up in the air. These two teams actually matched up last season and combined to score 51 points in a Bengals win in Cincinnati. That game saw a closing total of 49 points. Remember, earlier this season the Titans regularly saw totals posted in the 50's - in six of their first nine games, in fact. This total will prove too low. Take the over (10*).

NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

As much as we'd all like to see an entertaining, back-and-forth shootout to close out Wild Card weekend, I don't think we're going to get it when the Cards and Rams match up for the third time this season on Monday night. The Arizona offense is a shadow of its former self right now. It seems like an eternity ago that the Cards boatraced the Rams in a 37-20 stunner here at So-Fi Stadium back in early October. Let's face it, the Cards offense has been hamstrung since losing WE DeAndre Hopkins. The fact that TE Zach Ertz has essentially become the focal point of the passing game is telling. QB Kyler Murray has been running for his life most games (he was sacked five times against Seattle last week). Now he faces a Rams defense that has seemingly figured him out, holding him to just eight all-purpose touchdowns in six career matchups not to mention a very pedestrian 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The last time these two teams met Murray had the benefit of facing a Rams defense that was without Jalen Ramsey due to Covid protocols. With all of that being said, there is a path for the Cards to stay competitive in this game and that involves effectively shortening it by running the football (both James Conner and Chase Edmonds are apparently good to go health-wise) and playing smart, fundamentally-sound defense. Let's face it, the Cards defense wasn't good in last week's loss to the Seahawks. We know they're capable of better though and there is help on the way with J.J. Watt, Jordan Phillips and Marco Wilson expected back from injury. No Watt isn't the game-changer he once was, but his presence is a factor on this defense. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Cards have come off a game in which they allowed 30+ points, with that situation producing an average total of just 41.6 points. The 'under' is also an identical 12-4 in Arizona's last 16 road games and Los Angeles' last 16 home games with those games producing totals well below the number we're working with here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Sunday.

No team is carrying a stronger 'no one believes in us' vibe heading into the NFL Playoffs than the Pittsburgh Steelers. And rightfully so. Very few do believe in them as they face a seemingly insurmountable task in Kansas City on Sunday. After all, the Chiefs already beet the Steelers by a 36-10 score back on Boxing Day. However, that actually sets Pittsburgh up well in this one (stay with me here). The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games when seeking revenge for a loss by 14 points or more, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 points in that situation. That 26-point loss to Kansas City was one of only three losses by 14 points or more this season. While I'm not about to compare this Steelers team to the Ravens eventual Super Bowl winning squad back in 2013, there's no question there are some similar vibes being given off with this being Big Ben's last ride (you may remember the Ravens rallied around Ray Lewis after he announced he would be retiring at the end of their 2013 playoff run). I actually like the way Roethlisberger's approach seemed to evolve in the latter stages of the regular season, almost as if the pressure was off. I don't think the Steelers enter this game feeling much pressure given that no one is giving them a chance of winning. It's not as if the Chiefs have been the picture of consistency - just 8-9 ATS overall this season including a 4-5 ATS mark at home. Take Pittsburgh (9*).

NFC Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Cowboys couldn't have drawn a worse matchup in the Wild Card round. The 49ers are playing exceptionally well on both sides of the football right now with their lone blemish a 20-17 Thursday night loss in Tennessee where QB Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a thumb injury during the game. The Niners will arguably have the best two offensive players on the field in this game in Deebo Samuel and George Kittle (I realize there are some Cowboys that would take exception to that). While their offense has really taken off lately, I've been more impressed by their defense, which has held its last four opponents to no more than 236 passing yards despite facing 30+ pass attempts in each of those games. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Niners allowed 100 yards rushing and it happened only once over their last 10 contests. The Cowboys are certainly a formidable opponent but not invincible, noting they have lost there of their last five games here at Jerry World. Their offense routinely put up 30+ points in the first two months of the season but reached that mark just twice over their last six games, with those performances coming against a severely depleted Washington squad and an Eagles team that rested the majority of its starters last Saturday. Here, we'll note that the Cowboys are just 1-8 ATS when the line sits between +3 and -3 over the last two seasons and they haven't been particularly close in those games, losing by an average margin of 11.0 points. Take San Francisco (10*).

AFC Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

What does home field advantage really mean in this matchup? The road team took both regular season meetings, and in rather convincing fashion. On a freezing cold Saturday night in Buffalo, I'm more than comfortable grabbing more than a field goal with a Bill Bellichick-coached Patriots team coming off an ugly loss last Sunday in Miami. The Bills snuck in the front door for a win and cover against the lowly Jets last Sunday (we won with Buffalo in that game). Few teams have been more 'Jekyll-and-Hyde' than the Bills this season. Losses against the Steelers, Jaguars and Colts certainly come to mind. And then there was the 14-10 home loss against these same Patriots in a game where they were quite simply bullied into submission. Buffalo did exact its revenge in a 33-21 win in New England in Week 16. Even in that contest, though, the Bills allowed 149 rushing yards on 27 attempts. It's easy to forget that the Patriots were thought to be the AFC's best team - perhaps on a collision course with Tom Brady and the Bucs in the Super Bowl - after that Monday night victory in Buffalo back in early December. There's no question they've fallen out of favor since then and last Sunday's 33-24 loss in Miami with an AFC East title hanging in the balance only amplified the doubters. Here, we'll note that the Patriots are 6-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 19.1 points on average in that spot and 50-29 ATS the last 79 times they've played on the road off a loss. The Bills, meanwhile, are 8-20 ATS the last 28 times they've come off four straight wins, as is the case here, and 15-32 ATS the last 47 times they've come off a home win against a division opponent, which is also the situation here. Take New England (10*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Raiders are in a classic fade spot here, coming off an outright underdog victory at home against a division rival, not to mention playing on a short week, on the road no less. With that being said, I believe they match up well with the Bengals, especially given this will be their second shot at Cincinnati this season after turning in a poor effort at home back in November. That game was played in the midst of Las Vegas' 1-5 slide. Now we get the Raiders coming off four straight wins, and still carrying that 'us against the world' mentality that has seemingly helped so many underdog teams in the NFL Playoffs over the years. The Bengals celebrated the AFC North division title like they won the Super Bowl two weeks ago. They of course laid down in last week's season finale on the road against the Browns (and rightfully so with nothing to play for). I think that might bite them a little here as they had been playing so well prior to that game. For the Raiders, they've essentially been playing playoff football for weeks, desperately trying to sneak into the postseason, which they did thanks to last Sunday's overtime thriller against the Chargers. I also like the fact that Las Vegas has its key pieces (relatively) healthy for this one with RB Josh Jacobs playing some of the best football of his young career and TE Darren Waller having returned with a two-catch but nine-target performance last Sunday. Both players find themselves in favorable matchups against the Bengals dare-I-say overrated defense here. It's been an eternity since the Bengals last won a playoff game. Maybe they get that giant monkey off of their back here, but I'm not convinced a win will come easy and will grab the points accordingly. Take Las Vegas (9*).

My selection is on the first half 'under' between Georgia and Alabama at 8 pm et on Monday.

We saw a wild, high-scoring first half between these two teams in the SEC Championship Game, fueled by a mistake-laden, back-and-forth second quarter. It's worth noting that the first quarter in that game actually saw just three points scored. Both teams threw the football 40+ times in that contest, which eventually went Alabama's way by a 41-24 score. Chalk that up as an anomaly as I don't think either team wants to be up in the 40's in terms of pass attempts again here, noting that it hadn't happened in any of the previous 11 meetings in this series going all the way back to 1994. I certainly expect a cleaner performance from Georgia here, noting that prior to that SEC Championship Game, the Bulldogs had given up a grand total of 29 points in the first half in their first 12 games this season (they allowed 24 points in the first half against Alabama). They would go on to give up only three first half points against Michigan in the Orange Bowl CFP semi-final. Of course, there's little reason to expect Alabama to get lit up defensively early in this game. There were certainly lessons to be learned from watching the Bulldogs race out to a 27-3 halftime lead against Michigan. This is the first time we've seen these two SEC combatants meet for a second time in the same season and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the first half under (10*).

NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Bills in the first matchup between these two teams this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Sunday's rematch in Buffalo. The Jets have inexplicably scored 24+ points in three straight games but only have one win to show for it. I suspect that run comes to an end here, however, noting that Buffalo has allowed only 49 points in its last three games combined, holding those three opponents to a combined 45-of-93 (48.4%) passing for just 432 yards. On the flip side, we've seen the Bills running game somewhat surprisingly step to the forefront, rumbling for 173, 119, 114 and 233 yards over their last three games. With an AFC East title hanging in the balance (Buffalo would also need a Patriots loss to the Dolphins) I don't expect the Bills to take their foot off the gas in this one. Given what an uneven regular season it has been for Buffalo, I suspect they want to head into the playoffs with a sharp performance on both sides of the football here (I realize that goes without saying). Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We missed with the Texans last week, deservedly so as they went far too conservative in an eventual 16-point loss in San Francisco. With Houston simply playing out the string and the Titans looking to potentially wrap up the AFC's number-one seed and a first-round bye, I look for Tennessee to win this one going away. The Titans won't have RB Derrick Henry back for this game. That actually works in our favor from a pointspread perspective. I don't believe Henry's heroics will be needed to secure a lopsided win here. We've seen the Titans take flight over the last six quarters of football - clearly this is a team peaking at the right time. They certainly won't want to lose any of that momentum on Sunday. The only reason the Texans were even somewhat competitive in last week's loss in San Francisco was because the Niners had to turn to rookie QB Trey Lance, with somewhat of a limited offensive gameplan, early on at least. As that game evolved, Lance and the Niners offense were able to get whatever they wanted and I would anticipate a similar scenario unfolding in favor of the Titans explosive offense here. Take Tennessee (9*).

NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season way back in mid-September. We're likely to see a much different story unfold here as the Packers have little to play for and will likely only field their starters, on offense in particular, for a cameo appearance on Sunday afternoon in Detroit. As for the Lions, their offense has become depleted over the course of the season, missing TE T.J. Hockenson in particular. Despite 35+ pass attempts in four of its last five games, Detroit has topped out at 272 passing yards over that stretch with that performance coming in its first victory of the season against the defense-optional Vikings. I would anticipate a RB De'Andre Swift-centric offensive gameplan from the Lions here and the Packers likely wouldn't oppose to that as they look to get this game over with as quickly as possible and move on to playoff preparations. Note that both regular season meetings between these two NFC North rivals haven't gone 'over' the total since back in 2017. Take the under (10*).

NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

I can't imagine either of these teams being all that interested in anything other than effectively shortening this game and advancing to the playoffs with their key players healthy. There was a thought earlier in the week that the Cowboys might 'go for it' in this one and head coach Mike McCarthy hasn't strayed from his attitude that he's playing his starters in this game (at least he hasn't in public) but with a number of key pieces on defense now on the Covid list, I can't help but think Dallas will be willing to 'punt' this one with no clear path at improving its playoff standing this weekend. We've actually seen the total rise, largely due to the potential key absences on the defensive side in particular for the Cowboys. The same goes for the Eagles, although there was really never a notion that they would be playing the majority of their starters in this one with their playoff positioning all but locked up. We're likely going to see plenty of QB Gardner Minshew but I'm not expecting a whole lot of 'Minshew Magic' here as we'll likely see a rather vanilla offensive gameplan from the playoff-bound Eagles. Note that we haven't seen both regular season meetings between these NFC East rivals go 'over' the total since 2018. Prior to that it hadn't happened since 2012. We cashed with the 'over' in the first meeting early in the campaign but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

MNF First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland first half minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Maybe Big Ben has some magic left in his final home start at Heinz Field. I'm willing to bet it's the Browns that come out aggressively and take a lead into halftime on Monday night, however. Prior to last week against Green Bay, the Browns hadn't dropped the cash in the first half in consecutive games all season. So here, they enter riding their only first half losing streak of the season. It's been a different story for the Steelers, who have now failed to cover the first half pointspread in seven consecutive games. Over that stretch they've been outscored 124-29. That's no fluke. Pittsburgh averages only 9.4 points on 5.2 yards per play in the first half at home this season. By contrast, the Browns average 14.1 points on 6.3 yards per play in the first half on the road. After losing the first meeting of the season by a 15-10 score at home - a game in which they were never able to get anything going offensively - I look for Cleveland to go on the attack early in this one, pounding away on the Steelers weak run defense that has allowed an ugly 4.8 yards per rush this season. Take Cleveland first half (10*).

NFL Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

A strange thing has happened as the Texans have reeled off consecutive wins and have actually played .500 football over their last six games. While they're a significant underdog on Sunday in Santa Clara, I believe they can hang tough. I like the fact that Houston has gone on the offensive lately, with QB Davis Mills actually playing well and displaying a solid rapport with his receiving corps. The Texans have attempted 106 passes over the last three games alone. Now they get Brandin Cooks back from Covid protocol which should only help their cause against what I consider to be a beatable 49ers defense. San Francisco had been rolling along offensively before running into a desperate Titans squad last Thursday. The Niners lost Jimmy Garroppolo in that game, however, meaning they'll turn to rookie Trey Lance in this one. While 49ers fans are high on Lance, and for good reason, at this early stage of his career I believe his starting presence should warrant a downgrade when it comes to the Niners offense, especially their two top playmakers in George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. I'm not entirely sure what sort of gameplan head coach Kyle Shanahan will cook up in this one but I do feel it's a stretch to expect the Niners to win this one by two touchdowns or more. Take Houston (10*).

NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We've won with the 'over' in games involving the Jaguars in each of the last two weeks and I won't hesitate to go back to the well again here as we once again deal with a total set in the low-40's. Jacksonville has at least shown some life since ousting much-maligned head coach Urban Meyer. Over the last two games we've seen the Jags attempt a whopping 77 passes, completing 48 of those for well over 400 yards. That's progress as far as I'm concerned. Of course, we should temper expectations here as those last two performances came against the lowly Texans and Jets. That being said, I would expect to see the Jags stay aggressive as a massive underdog here. What do they have to lose? The Patriots on the other hand should absolutely go off in this bounce-back spot off last week's home loss against the Bills. The Jags have shown no semblance of run defense whatsoever, last week allowing the Jets to rush for a whopping 273 yards. That was before they lost a number of run-stuffers to the Covid list late in the week. Here, we'll note that Patriots home games have totalled an average of just shy of 50 points this season. Meanwhile, the Jags for all their problems still put up over 14 points per contest on the road, with those games averaging just shy of 42 total points. Take the over (10*).

CFB Bowl First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Ole Miss 'first half' minus the points over Baylor at 8:45 pm et on Saturday.

Baylor did what many didn't believe it could, upsetting Oklahoma State in a revenge game to capture the Big 12 Championship in early December. Here, I believe the Bears face a much different challenge but rather than lay the points with Ole Miss in the full game, we'll focus on the first half only. The Rebels should offer something of a 'shock to the system' for the Bears defense, which hasn't faced an offense like the one Ole Miss possesses in the Big 12. There were times when the Rebels offense didn't look quite as explosive or potent as most expected but a lot of that had to do with a number of key contributors being banged-up or sidelined entirely. With a full month off between games (the Rebels haven't played since Thanksgiving Night) Ole Miss should be 'all systems go' for this one with do-it-all QB Matt Corral somewhat surprisingly playing in this game instead of opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. I give Baylor all the credit in the world for winning the Big 12 title. We cashed a few tickets with the Bears over the course of the season and they could very well win this game as well as the Rebels do have the type of defense that will let opponents back in games. However, in the first half, I believe it will be Ole Miss that goes on the offensive (no pun intended) and gets plenty of licks in against a Bears defense you can throw on (we've seen a number of Baylor's opponents this season find success through the air). While Baylor has proven stout against the run, the Rebels offer a ground attack that can really disguise its looks and brings a different approach compared to what the Bears have seen, led by the dual-threat Corral. Also consider that if there's any team more built to play on the 'fast track' at the Superdome, it's the Rebels. Take Ole Miss first half (10*).

My selection is on Wake Forest 'first half' minus the points over Rutgers at 11 am et on Friday.

I'll lay the points in the first half only with the Demon Deacons on Friday as I believe they can provide a 'shock to the system' of sorts early on against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers didn't face many 'pass-first' teams over the course of the season. Wake Forest is likely to throw all over it on Friday, however. The Demon Deacons play fast and like to air it out, completing 20+ passes in each of their final seven games down the stretch. The issue with Wake Forest, however, is its defense and its tendency to let teams hang around and in many cases get back in the game after falling behind big. I can certainly see that situation unfolding again here, even with the limited nature of Rutgers' offense (the total sitting in the 60's is telling in my opinion). So instead we'll call for the Deacs' to jump ahead by double-digits early on and hold that lead through the first 30 minutes and not worry about what happens in the second half. Take Wake Forest 'first half' (8*).

This is one of the lowest totals we'll see during Bowl season and while I can certainly understand the logic behind it, I believe it sets us up well to attack the first half total with a play on the 'over'. The common line of thinking here is that Wisconsin is going to pound the football all night long while Arizona State simply looks to possess the football for extended stretches and ultimately shorten this game in an effort to stay competitive. I actually think we'll see the Sun Devils and Badgers both take some shots down the field early on, however, in an effort to catch the opposing stout defenses off guard and open things up for the ground games to go off later in the contest. In other words, I can certainly see the game getting off to a relatively high-scoring start before the defenses and ground games settle in. Note that the Sun Devils saw an average total of 28.8 points scored in the first half in their games played away from home this season. Their defense certainly looked beatable away from Tempe, giving up 17 points per game in the first half. Wisconsin's defense allowed 1.5 points per game more in the first half away from home compared to at home, with its road contests totalling an average of 19.8 points - just shy of the number we're working with tonight. I have plenty of respect for the Wisconsin defense but here it will be facing a different type of offense than it's accustomed to seeing in the Big 10, with Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels a dual-threat capable of creating splash plays with his arm or his legs. Meanwhile, Badgers fans are hoping this can be a lift-off game for QB Graham Mertz heading into 2022, something they've of course been starving for all season. Look for him to be afforded the opportunity to push the ball down field early on. Take the first half over (10*).

CFB Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa State and Clemson at 5:45 pm et on Wednesday.

This is one of the lowest posted totals we'll see in Bowl season. I believe it will prove too low. Iowa State is in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here as Clemson ran the football 40+ times in six of its final 10 regular season games, and it had plenty of success doing so, particularly at the tail-end of the season as it piled up nearly 600 rushing yards in its final two contests. Only one of the Cyclones 12 opponents this season ran the football 40+ times. Note that two of their final three opponents gained over 200 yards on the ground. Of course, running the football equates to time off the clock. I'm not overly concerned, however, as I do feel the Clemson ground game should only serve to open things up for the pass. On the flip side, Iowa State is going to sling the football all over the field, especially without RB Breece Hall. The Cyclones threw the football 39, 42, 52 and 30 times over their final four regular season games, racking up over 300 yards passing in three of those games while scoring a whopping 48 points in the other. Take the over (10*).

CFB Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Louisville at 3:15 pm et on Tuesday.

We've seen plenty of support for Louisville leading up to this game, flipping the line from the opener that saw Air Force as a short favorite. I don't agree with the move. The Falcons have done nothing but win under head coach Troy Calhoun - particularly since a disastrous 2-10 2013 season. This year, we saw Air Force navigate a tough Mountain West Conference schedule to go 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS. I guess you could say Louisville's most impressive win came at home against Central Florida early in the season. There were also ugly lopsided losses against the likes of Ole Miss, N.C. State and Kentucky in the Cardinals regular season finale. Air Force closed out the regular season on a roll, winning three straight games and scoring 124 points in the process. I expect the Falcons to offer a real shock to the system to the Louisville defense here - a defense that struggled to stop the run at the best of times this season. The Cardinals can run as well, and will need to with a couple of key contributors at the wide receiver position transferring out of the program, but Air Force was stout against the run all season, allowing just 3.2 yards per rush against opponents that average 3.8 ypr. While few expect the Falcons to take to the air often in this game, I do think there will be opportunities for them to do so, noting that they did average 9.6 yards per pass attempt over the course of the regular season while Louisville was only average against the pass, giving up 7.0 yppa. Take Air Force (10*).

NFL MNF 1H Total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Miami and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

We'll play the first half total only in this one as there's obviously plenty of uncertainty when it comes to the Saints gameplan on both sides of the football with so many key contributors sidelined. I like the way it sets up as a low-scoring start. While this looks like a slam dunk for the Fins on paper given all of the Saints absences, they'll have to be careful not to overlook New Orleans, which still has many of its defensive anchors on the field. I'm anticipating a more conservative offensive gameplan here after QB Tua Tagovailoa turned the football over twice in last week's win over the Jets, including one interception that was returned for a touchdown. We've seen renewed balance from the Miami offense lately as it has ran the football at least 39 times in two of its last three games and finally appears to have a fully healthy backfield for this one. The Saints are going to be extra-cautious when they have the football with fourth-string QB Ian Book running the offense. We can obviously expect to see a heavy dose of RB Alvin Kamara in this one. Regardless, I'm not expecting much from the New Orleans offense. Note that the Saints are averaging a woeful 6.0 points in the first half at home this season. The Dolphins, meanwhile, average 9.5 points in the first half on the road. The 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 in the first half of their next game with the Saints coming off a win this season, resulting in an average total of just 14.5 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 55-33 in the first half with the Fins coming off a win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the first half under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Western Michigan and Nevada at 11 am et on Monday.

The 'over' has been the best bet during Bowl season so far but I believe we'll see a different story unfold in Monday's Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit. Nevada will be missing the core of its team for this one with QB Carson Strong and WR Romeo Doubs among those sitting the game out to prepare for the upcoming NFL Draft, not to mention half the coaching staff moving on with head coach Jay Norvell. While the Wolf Pack boasted a high-octane offense throughout the regular season, I wouldn't count on seeing that here. Western Michigan had a few standout performances over the course of the season but for the most part, its offense disappointed. Here, the Broncos will need to be cautious as they've had a tendency to turn the football over and Nevada has had a knack for forcing the same with 12 over its final five regular season games. Western Michigan has generally been a run-first team, topping out at 22 or less pass completions in all but one of its games this season (that coming in a stunning 44-41 upset win at Pitt back in September). I think we'll see both teams come out and look to control the time of possession in this one, ultimately working into our favor with a play on the 'under'. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games earlier this week but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. The Bears will likely turn to Nick Foles at quarterback as Justin Fields deals with an ankle injury. Given what we've seen from Fields it's hard to envision much of a downgrade. If anything Foles may be able to do a better job of pushing the football down the field. It's not as if the Bears are bereft of playmakers on offense. RB David Montgomery is in line to go off against a weak Seattle run defense here. The Seahawks got some good news as WR Tyler Lockett sounds like he'll be able to play. Chicago's defense continues to play on without a number of key contributors and doesn't figure to offer much resistance here. Robert Quinn and the Bears pass rush is certainly a concern but I think the Seahawks can stay balanced and find some success regardless, noting that they scored 30 points in their lone home game over their last four contests. Take the over (9*).

NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the 'over' in the Jaguars home loss to the Texans last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they travel to New York to face the Jets. The Jags offense did show some signs of life or at least some semblance of an identity in last week's loss - the first game of the post-Urban Meyer era. RB James Robinson should be the focal point of the Jags offense moving forward and he figures to go off against the Jets league-worst run defense. New York is favored for a reason here, however, and I would anticipate the Jets offense enjoying some success against a Jags defense that will be missing arguably its best player in DE Josh Allen. Despite gaining only 228 total yards of offense in last week's loss in Miami, the Jets still managed to manufacture 24 points. They'll be taking a considerable step down in class against the Jags here and I expect them to turn Zach Wilson loose (which as we know could lead to points for either team). Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Indianapolis at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

With the Colts dealing with considerable Covid issues I can certainly see them punting this one, especially with games against the Raiders and Jaguars on deck. I liked the situation prior, but now that we have a little more clarity I see this as an ideal spot to back Arizona as a short favorite at home as it looks to bounce back from last week's dismal performance against the Lions. It's not difficult to come back from that type of poor performance as we saw from the Cards last week, particularly at home. Take Arizona (10*).

NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Cleveland at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'm not going to get caught overthinking this one. The Browns are missing so many key contributors and let's face it, they weren't playing all that well to begin with. Yes, Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry are among those players expected back from Covid protocols. No I don't think they have any sort of advantage against a Packers defense that should be in a foul mood after giving up 30 points against the Ravens last Sunday. Offensively, there's little reason to expect anything other than Aaron Rodgers and the Pack offense running roughshod over the Browns overrated defense. Cleveland held up well against the Raiders on Monday but that had more to do with the limited nature and cautious, conservative approach by the Las Vegas offense than anything else in my opinion. The Browns don't get better with defensive anchor Myles Garrett dealing with a nagging groin injury and playing on a very short week. They also lose key safety John Johnson. Take Green Bay (10*).

TNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Tennessee at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

After watching the Titans dismal offensive performance against the Steelers last Sunday this is a bit of a 'plug-your-nose and bet it' type of play on Thursday night but I love the way it sets up. The 49ers offense is set up to go off both on the ground and through the air as Jimmy G. in particular remains an undervalued commodity, even after a string of top flight performances. The question becomes whether the Titans offense can keep up, but I believe they can. Derrick Henry remains sidelined, as does Julio Jones. However, Tennessee got some good news with the return of WR A.J. Brown. He's in line to go off against a very beatable 49ers pass defense here. I'm still a believer in Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, even after last Sunday's ugly performance against the Steelers. The 49ers defense is thought of as a top-level unit but it has been getting regularly torched by opposing wide receivers. Last week's mistake-laden effort in Pittsburgh couldn't have sat well with the Titans. I expect them to come out aggressively as a result here. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Central Florida and Florida at 7 pm et on Thursday.

It seems that all anyone can remember when it comes to Florida - apart from its horrible play under then-head coach Dan Mullen - was the fact that it gave up 52 points against Samford back in November. Since then, the Gators have tightened things up, allowing 24 points against Missouri and 21 against Florida State. Here, they'll face a Central Florida squad that really only busted out offensively against the likes of Bethune-Cookman, Temple and UConn - three of the worst defensive teams around. On a positive note, the Knights did hold five of their final six opponents to 17 points or less and I do think they can manage this matchup as well, noting that outside of that 70-point outburst against Samford, Florida was held to 24 points or less in four of its final five games. We're talking about two defenses that held opponents to 59.4% passing (Central Florida) and 57% passing (Florida) this season. Given the fact that both teams have been somewhat vulnerable against the run this season, I expect both offenses to focus on keeping it on the ground for stretches in this one and with a total in the mid-to-high 50's that has me firmly on the 'under'. Take the under (8*).

CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and North Texas at 3:30 pm et on Thursday.

I love the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday. Miami-Ohio is coming off a wild 48-47 loss to Kent State (who we saw light it up but also fail to come up with any stops in Tuesday's lopsided loss against Wyoming). In fact, the 'over' has cashed in three of the Redhawks last four games. They threw all over the likes of Ohio, Buffalo and aforementioned Kent State over that stretch. I wouldn't anticipate them doing the same here. Note that North Texas allowed 20+ pass completions on only three occasions this season, against SMU, Missouri and Marshall. Over the Mean Green Eagles' last six games they held the opposition to a combined 97-for-184 (53%) passing. It's not as if teams simply elected to run all over them either, only UTSA (with standout RB Sincere McCormick) managed to gain more than 113 yards on the ground against them over that stretch. On the flip side, North Texas employs a run-first offense. Only twice this season did it complete more than 17 passes and it managed to score a combined 38 points in those two contests against SMU and Liberty where it was forced to play in catch-up mode. Miami-Ohio was respectable defending the run this season, holding opponents that average 4.4 yards per rush to 4.3 ypr. I don't envision the Redhawks getting taken advantage of through the air in this one, noting that they've been accustomed to facing pass-first offenses in the MAC, noting that they've seen 30+ pass attempts in eight straight games heading into this one. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 70-48 the last 118 times Miami-Ohio has come off a loss with those games totalling an average of just 47.3 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with North Texas coming off five or more consecutive wins, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 47.0 points. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Los Angeles at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again here, Seattle is going to relish playing the spoiler role down the stretch. The Seahawks could have folded the tent but instead they’re playing well off consecutive wins and I don’t expect them to roll over against the division rival Rams, in a revenge spot no less. On the flip side, the Rams are making up for lost time in a sense as well and should tee off on a very beatable Seahawks defense here - just as they did in the season’s first meeting. The loser gets to 21-24 points in this one and that should cash our ticket with ease. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I’m not going to overthink this one. The Washington Football Team made things a lot closer than they probably should have been in last week’s home loss to the Cowboys. Now, likely missing a number of key cogs against the Eagles, on the road no less, I look for them to struggle mightily to stay competitive. Philadelphia is as healthy as you could hope for in the midst of this Omicron wave. And the Eagles obviously still have everything to play for at this point. Only Dallas miscues on offense kept the Football Team from getting embarrassed last Sunday. I can’t see them benefitting from the same against the Eagles though. Philadelphia has won three of its last four games with the lone loss coming in a clear letdown spot against the Giants on the road. They also put up 30+ points in those three wins and should be able to approach that number again here. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Wyoming at 3:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Golden Flashes go from being favored by 3.5 points in the MAC Championship Game against Northern Illinois to catching the same number of points against a Wyoming squad that has lost six of its last eight games. The common line of thinking here is that the Cowboys have the superior defense and will therefore be able to control proceedings in this contest. I'm not so easily convinced. Keep in mind, the best two offenses Wyoming faced this season were arguably Fresno State and Boise State and they lost those two games by a combined 40-13 score. Note that the Cowboys want to run the football on offense. In fact, they didn't complete more than 18 passes on a single occasion this season. The problem is the Golden Flashes are more than used to facing similar offenses. Five opponents ran the football 40+ times against them over the course of the season. They've allowed 4.7 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.4 ypr. The Flashes have faced an average of 41 rush attempts per game and Wyoming runs the football an average of, you guessed it, 41 times per game. Interestingly, Wyoming's run defense hasn't been a whole lot better, allowing 4.4 ypr against opponents that average 4.1 ypr. It's the Cowboys pass defense that has been a difference-maker, but here I'm willing to bet on the talent of the Golden Flashes aerial attack led by QB Dustin Crum. Kent State head coach Sean Lewis has come on and turned the program around. The Flashes went 2-10 in his first season in 2018 but have posted three consecutive winning seasons since, including a win in the Frisco Bowl in 2019 (the program's first ever Bowl victory). Take Kent State (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

While the Bears are ravaged by Covid-related absences I'm willing to take a flyer on them grabbing nearly a full touchdown at home against what I consider to be an untrustworthy Vikings squad. Minnesota's most lopsided road win this season came by only seven points against the Chargers last month. The Vikes defense remains extremely vulnerable and it's obvious that the Bears offense is on an uptick right now, having scored 22 and 30 points in losses to the Cardinals and Packers - two very difficult matchups - over the last two weeks. Rookie QB Justin Fields is starting to build a good rapport with his receivers and I expect to see further progression against a very beatable Vikings secondary here. Note that the last three meetings in this series have been decided by a grand total of just 14 points with the Bears winning two of those games outright. Take Chicago (8*).

NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

With all of the Bears projected absences on defense due to Covid protocols and other various injuries and ailments there's absolutely no excuse for the Vikings not to approach 30 points in this game. The Vikes are still missing WR Adam Thielen but the emergence of K.J. Osborn certainly lessens the blow. This one should be all about RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson anyway. Cook is in a smash spot against a very beatable Bears run defense that as I mentioned is missing a number of key cogs. Jefferson is always a strong candidate to find the end zone and he's likely to avoid Bears standout CB Jaylon Johnson here as he was moved to the Covid list on Sunday. The question becomes whether the Bears can do enough to help this one 'over' the total. I believe they can. Few teams have struggled as badly against opposing wide receivers as the Vikings this season and Bears rookie QB Justin Fields seems to be building a better rapport with his receiving corps with each passing week. WR Darnell Mooney brings the big play potential but it's actually Damiere Byrd and Jakeem Grant that I would keep an eye on in this one. Allen Robinson is likely going to be sidelined after hitting the Covid list but he's never been on the same page as Fields this season anyway, coming off another low-key performance last Sunday in Green Bay. The Vikings have been anything but stout against the run this season opening the door for a possible big game from Bears RB David Montgomery as well. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Cleveland at 5 pm et on Monday.

Even with all of the uncertainly around Covid-related absences leading up to this game, I believe the potential is there for a relatively high-scoring affair. That's definitely a contrarian take when you consider the Raiders have been held to 16 or less points in five of their last six games. With that being said I like the way this one sets up for a couple of skill players in particular, those being WR Hunter Renfrow and RB Josh Jacobs. Renfrow should feast on an undermanned Browns secondary that has allowed opponents to complete 69% of their passes over their last eight games. Things don't figure to get better in that regard with a number of key cogs in the Cleveland pass defense sidelined for this one. Meanwhile, the Cleveland run defense has been average at best this season and we have seen Jacobs find the end zone in two of the last three games. On the flip side, the Browns QB situation remains clouded with Nick Mullens the most likely candidate to play in this one. I'm not sure it matters all that much as this one should be all about RB Nick Chubb who figures to go off against a weak Raiders run defense that allows 125 rush yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush this season. Vegas' pass defense checks in having allowed a whopping 7.9 yards per pass attempt over its last three games and has been particularly soft against opposing tight ends this season. While the Browns are unlikely to have TE Austin Hooper for this game, that is a position where they do boast considerable depth. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Tulsa minus the points over Old Dominion at 2:30 pm et on Monday.

I believe there's a talent gap that isn't being properly reflected in this line. Tulsa had high hopes this season but a very difficult schedule ended up contributing to a 6-6 campaign. After a bitter two-point defeat in last year's Armed Forces Bowl you can be sure the Golden Hurricane's wealth of returning talent will be up for this game - even if it is 'only' the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Old Dominion reached this game thanks to reeling off five straight wins to close out the regular season. Of course, those wins came against a weak slate of opponents - the toughest being Middle Tennessee State, which the Monarchs upset as a three-point underdog. While Tulsa QB Davis Brin struggled for the most part this season, I'm not sure this is his game to win. Instead I look for the Golden Hurricane to lean heavily on their excellent ground attack led by RB Sharmari Brooks, along with their experienced defense which will be looking to make a statement after not quite living up to expectations over the course of the season. Underdogs have ruled Bowl season so far, but I look for Tulsa to reverse that trend on Monday. Take Tulsa (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Broncos saw their six-game 'under' streak come to an end in last Sunday's 38-10 rout of the Lions. That outcome had everything to do with Detroit's inability to control the game (or the football). I expect a different story to unfold here. I generally like playing Bengals 'overs' in games where they're projected to be playing from behind. I'm not convinced that's the case here. QB Joe Burrow leads what at times looks like one of the most explosive offenses in the league. At others, he's relegated to game-manager and I can see that being the case here against a Broncos defense that has held up well against the pass and the run. On the flip side, the Bengals defense has held six straight opponents to fewer than 300 yards passing and the Broncos don't figure to test that streak here, noting that they've thrown for 250 yards or less in seven consecutive games. Cincinnati has also held four straight opponents to 100 yards rushing or less. Note that on two previous occasions where they scored 28 points or more in a game this season, the Broncos proceeded to score 13 and 9 points the next week. Take the under (9*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the 'over' in the Steelers loss in Minnesota last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Let's face it, the Steelers defense is horrible. Yes, they'll get T.J. Watt and Joe Haden back this week but as far as I'm concerned this unit is broken. While the Titans are still injury-depleted on offense, I'm confident enough in their aggressive play-calling and in QB Ryan Tannehill that they can continue to expose the Steelers shoddy defense here. On the flip side, the Titans defense hasn't been particularly good as a whole this season either. With that being said that unit is coming off a shutout performance last week. That came against the lowly Jaguars, however, in what turned out to be head coach Urban Meyer's swan-song. The Steelers offense has quietly been putting points on the board and should find some success in this desperation spot at home. We're being given a very reasonable total to work with here. Take the over (9*).

NFL AFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.

It's hard not to envision the Jaguars offense getting a much-needed boost following the firing of head coach Urban Meyer. This is a smash spot for the Jags offense against a Texans defense that has never been able to find its footing this season and has been absolutely drummed by opposing ground attacks. Jags RB James Robinson was inexplicably in Meyer's doghouse but should be unleashed under interim head coach Darrell Bevell's guidance. If Robinson can get going in this one that should really open things up for Lawrence, who faces the Texans very beatable defense for the second time this season. Let's give credit where credit is due; Texans QB Davis Mills has shown signs of improvement recently and given the way the Jags secondary has struggled to defend opposing wide receivers, there's reason to believe Mills can enjoy another fine day on the statsheet on Sunday. As long as the Texans have a healthy Brandin Cooks they have the ability to move the chains and put points on the board. Let's not forget that the last time these two teams met, way back in Week 1, the Texans scored a season-high 37 points. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Louisiana-Lafayette at 9:15 pm et on Saturday.

There always seems to be a tendency for bettors to look to play the 'over' in the New Orleans Bowl with the game being played on the 'fast track' at the Superdome annually. It's worth noting, however, that five of the last New Orleans Bowls have totaled 48 points or less. Here, I'm anticipating another 'under' result. Marshall actually posted two of its three lowest scoring totals of the season in two of its last three games. The Thundering Herd have more of a 'pass-first' offense but could run into trouble here given Louisiana-Lafayette has allowed just two opponents to complete 20+ passes this season and in those two teams they still gave up only 24 and 21 points. The Ragin' Cajuns have more of a 'run-first' mentality and enter this game with a number of key cogs on offense banged up or sidelined altogether due to injury. You would have to go back to October 30th to find the last time they completed more than 19 passes. They did so only three times all season and two of those performances came in the first three weeks of the season. Marshall is by no means a defensive juggernaut but did hold opponents to 54% pass completions and just 6.2 yards per pass attempt over the course of the regular season. Take the under (8*).

NFL AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Indianapolis at 8:20 pm et on Saturday.

Most are expecting a defensive slugfest between these two old AFC rivals on Saturday night but I think we're in for an entertaining, relatively high-scoring affair. As the total continues to drop we'll step in now with a play on the 'over'. All most remember when it comes to the Patriots is that run-dominated 14-10 in windy Buffalo two Mondays ago. However, the Pats enter this game having posted their six highest point totals of the entire season over the last eight games alone. Take away that wind-induced low-scoring performance in Buffalo and you'll see just how consistent New England has been offensively on the road, scoring 25, 25, 27, 24 and 25 points in their five other road contests. As for the Colts, three of their four highest scoring performances of the season have come in their last three games as they've put up 41, 31 and 31 points. They know they're going to need to put some points on the board in order to prevail in this game as their defense simply hasn't held up well against the run (allowing 4.5 yards per rush) and they figure to face an onslaught from the Pats ground attack here. Don't discount Mac Jones in this one though either. He has completed 22 or more passes in nine of 13 games this season. Finally, I'll point out that the Pats haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since opening the season with four straight 'unders'. Meanwhile, the Colts have yet to post back-to-back 'under' results this season. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Utah State plus the points over Oregon State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Upset wins over USC, Utah and Arizona State have had plenty of bettors high on the Oregon State Beavers this season. What I see, however, is a team that had a rather uneven season and lopsided victories were few and far between over the last two months of the campaign. The Beavers did beat Stanford by 21 and aforementioned Arizona State by 14 in November but they did so by holding those two teams to 14 and 10 points, respectively and both wins came at home. I would certainly expect Utah State to score far more than that here, and I'm confident the upstart Aggies can stay inside what I consider to be an inflated pointspread. Utah State has gone a perfect 7-0 away from home this season, capping it off with a Mountain West Conference championship in a decisive win over San Diego State. I absolutely love the Aggies senior class and fully expect them to go out on a high note here. First-year head coach Blake Anderson was involved in a swirl of controversy this week when a recording of his comments regarding sexual assault victims (from an address to his team at Fall camp) came out earlier this week. If anything I would expect that controversy to perhaps galvanize this team even more heading into Saturday's game. Take Utah State (9*).

Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Fresno State at 2:15 pm et on Saturday.

There's a lot of uncertainty around Fresno State this week, stemming from QB Jake Haener seemingly transferring from the program but then reversing course and returning to the team in time for Bowl week. I'm not overly concerned. Haener is with the team and likely to at least see some action in this one. Even if he doesn't, the Bulldogs offense is capable of going off against a Miners defense that sagged down the stretch. UTEP comes in on a 1-4 slide, allowing 28, 44, 20, 28 and 42 points over that stretch. The good news for the Miners is they do have an offense capable of putting points on the board with a standout WR duo in Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett who have the ability to blow the top off of any secondary. Note that while the Miners are generally a run-first team, they're likely to be playing from behind for the majority of this game and in that scenario we saw them bomb away down the stretch, attempting 30+ passes in four of their final five regular season games. The 'over' went 4-1 in UTEP's five losses this season. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Coastal Carolina and Northern Illinois at 6 pm et on Friday.

I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks between these two teams on Friday. Northern Illinois could be in for a shock to the system here as few opponents have elected to attack them through the air with any consistency this season but Coastal Carolina will with standout QB Grayson McCall looking to show off his talents in front of both NFL scouts and perhaps other schools as well as it sounds like he may be back for a final year of college but is likely to transfer from CCU. When the Huskies did face pass-first offenses this season they gave up 20 points against Eastern Michigan, 26 points against Bowling Green and 38 points against Central Michigan - all three boasting far weaker aerial attacks than the one they'll face on Friday. On the flip side, the Chanticleers are going to face a much different challenge than they're used to here as well, noting that Northern Illinois will pound the football on the ground and has had a ton of success doing so. Coastal Carolina gave up 25 points against Buffalo, 30 points against Appalachian State and 42 points against Georgia State in three previous games where the opposition ran the football 40+ times this season - as NIU is likely to do on Friday. Note that the Huskies enter this game having scored 34, 39, 47, 30, 33, 21 and 41 points in their last seven games. The 21-point performance came in a game against Western Michigan where they played their backups with a spot in the MAC Championship Game already clinched. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

I'm expecting a tightly-contested affair between the Chiefs and Chargers on Thursday night and will grab the points accordingly with Los Angeles in an underdog role. The Chargers have been frustratingly inconsistent this season. One thing that has been consistent about Los Angeles since Justin Herbert took over at quarterback last season is its ability to play the Chiefs tough, however. I expect nothing different here. Yes, the Chiefs are rolling right now. They've won six straight games, including four in a row ATS. Keep in mind, five of those games were played at Arrowhead. The only road win over that stretch came against a reeling Raiders squad. The Chargers are banged-up for this one but will get WR Keenan Allen back and it sounds like RB Austin Ekeler is more likely to play than not. The Chiefs are missing some key cogs as well, including DT Chris Jones. Here, we'll note that Kansas City has averaged just 18.7 points and outscored opponents by a narrow margin of 0.9 points the last six times it has played on the road after a victory by 14 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Chargers have outscored opponents by an average margin of 6.4 points the last 25 times they've played at home with a posted total of 49.5 points or higher. Take Los Angeles (8*).

AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

All three primetime games went 'over' the total last week but I expect a different story to unfold as the division-rival Chiefs and Chargers kick off Week 15 with a good matchup on Thursday night. The Chargers defense has actually had the Chiefs number since the start of last season, allowing only 24, 23 and 21 points in three matchups, winning two of those. While Los Angeles did light up the Kansas City defense for 30 points in the last matchup between these two teams back in September, there's no question the Chiefs 'D' is playing much better now. While Kansas City will be without key pass rusher Chris Jones for this one, the Chargers will be without arguably their best o-lineman in rookie Rashawn Slater. That's not to mention the fact that WR Keenan Allen is coming out of Covid protocols after missing last week's game while RB Austin Ekeler is questionable to play due to an ankle injury. To put it simply, I don't expect Chargers QB Justin Herbert to enjoy the same level of success he did against Kansas City back in September. The Chargers defensive strength has been against the pass this season as they come in having held their last seven opponents to 138-of-235 (59%) passing - awful numbers for opposing QB's by today's NFL standards. Yes, you can beat the Chargers on the ground but the Chiefs by no means possess a dominant ground attack. With so much on the line in this one, I'm confident we'll see points come at a premium. Take the under (10*).

NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

While most will look to back the Rams in this big revenge spot on Monday Night Football, I like the way this spot sets up for the Cardinals. Interestingly, Arizona has lost its last two home games, falling against the Packers and Panthers. I do like what the Cardinals did last week in Chicago as they eased Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back from injury - attempting only 15 passes - but still putting up 33 points against the Bears. The damage could have been much worse had they not eased off the gas in what was essentially a blowout. The Rams meanwhile went full throttle in a 37-7 rout of the lowly Jaguars at home. That snapped a three-game losing streak. At 5-7 ATS on the season, the Rams have been anything but a reliable bet. They've gone 4-2 on the road but haven't tasted victory away from home since posting a 38-22 win in Houston on Halloween. Since then we've seen them give up a whopping 67 points in consecutive losses in San Francisco and Green Bay. Three of their four road wins came against non-playoff contending teams in Seattle (with Geno Smith starting at QB for the Seahawks), New York (vs. the Giants) and Houston. I think it's fair to question at this point whether the Rams defense is as dominant as advertised. Arizona ripped the Rams for 216 rushing yards and 249 passing yards in a 37-20 win at So-Fi Stadium back in early October. With the Cardinals clamping down on opposing passing games (they're giving up only 6.4 yards per pass attempt) the Rams could be in tough as they're down another RB in Darrell Henderson (Covid protocols) and haven't had much success running the football at the best of times, gaining fewer than 100 yards rushing in four of their last six games. Sony Michel went off for 124 yards on 24 carries last week but he's been anything but consistent since joining the Rams. Take Arizona (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not anticipating any sort of old-school defensive struggle between these two NFC North rivals on Sunday night in Green Bay. When these two teams met in Chicago earlier this season they combined to score only 38 points. The Bears defense has fallen apart since then, though. They've given up 29 points or more in four of six games since that 24-14 loss to Green Bay. The story is more about who's not on the field than who is when it comes to Chicago's injury-ravaged defense. While the Bears did allow 'only' 33 points against Arizona last Sunday, the damage could have been much worse were it not for the Cards simply easing QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins back into game action after missing extended time due to injury. The Bears have quietly been slinging the football all over the field in recent weeks and should employ a similar gameplan as they'll likely be playing from behind for much of the night on Sunday. Note that they've attempted 34, 39 and 41 passes in their last three contests. You would have to go back to Halloween to find the last time they ran the football 30+ times in a game. The last time these two teams met at Lambeau Field they combined to score 66 points last season. Take the over (8*).

NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Packers coming off their bye week. The Bears dropped a 33-22 decision at home against the Cardinals last week in a game that wasn't even as close as the lopsided final score indicated. Arizona could have gotten whatever it wanted offensively in that game and probably could or should have put up 40+ points were it not for taking its foot off the gas with QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins easing their way back into action after missing time due to injury. Chicago will turn back to rookie Justin Fields under center after Andy Dalton failed to take care of the football in last week's loss. I'm not sure it makes any difference as this is an extremely limited Bears offense regardless who is under center. WR Allen Robinson is expected to return but he hasn't shown any sort of chemistry with Fields. On the flip side, the Packers offense should feast in this matchup. The Bears are shells of their former selves defensively. Six of their last seven opponents have rushed for over 100 yards while the last four teams they've faced have combined to complete 79-of-106 (75%) of their passes. In three meetings going back to the start of last season, Green Bay has scored 41, 35 and 24 points against Chicago. You would have to go back to December of 2018 to find the last time the Bears covered a spread in this series. Take Green Bay (10*).

NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Detroit at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

It's pretty easy to envision a scenario where the lowly Lions simply 'punt' this game given the illness that has ravaged the team this week with nearly half of the roster missing practice time at one point or another. That combined with Detroit in a clear letdown spot off its first victory of the season - a truly emotional win given the events that had transpired in Michigan the previous week - and you can understand why I'm not high on the Lions stringing together a second straight solid performance here. Keep in mind, even in last week's win, the Lions defense still struggled. Here, it will go against an often punchless Broncos offense but one that is set up exceptionally well to bounce back nicely following last Sunday's ugly performance in primetime against the Chiefs. With Detroit struggling mightily to defend the pass and the Broncos as healthy as they've been all season at the wide receiver position, this is a smash spot for Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver offense (I know that sounds strange). This will certainly be an emotional game for the Broncos after former WR Demariyus Thomas passed away suddenly earlier this week. Much like they did the last time we saw them on this field against the Chargers, look for the Broncos to come up big at home. Take Denver (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While I'm not anticipating a track meet between these two teams on Sunday afternoon, I do believe this relatively low posted total will prove too low on Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks offense has made some progress with QB Russell Wilson seemingly getting more comfortable as he continues to recover from his finger injury. Last Sunday Wilson took a step in the right direction, throwing for just shy of 300 yards in a win over the 49ers. You can see that the big plays are there, Wilson simply needs to do a better job of putting the football in the right location. He should have little trouble doing so against a Texans defense that has no semblance of a pass rush and has been thrown all over by any opposing offense with a pulse this season. Rookie QB Davis Mills gets his second stint as the Texans starter under center in place of an ineffective Tyrod Taylor. The Texans would be wise to attack the Seahawks defense through the air in this one as Seattle is now without safety Jamal Adams while corner Quandre Diggs is banged up and questionable to play on Sunday as well. You can certainly envision a scenario where the Seahawks defense suffers a letdown here following a two-game stretch that saw it play on Monday Night Football and then at home against the division-rival 49ers. In two previous indoor games this season the Seahawks allowed a combined 46 points and 789 total yards at Indy and Minnesota. The Texans may appear to pose little offensive threat on paper but the Seahawks haven't exactly been a trustworthy squad this season. Take the over (8*).

NFL Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

These two teams have been strongly trending to the 'under' lately but that only serves to set us up with value on the 'over' on Sunday as they match up for the first time this season. Dallas didn't have to score a whole lot against an extremely limited Saints offense last week but still managed to put 27 points on the board. With a couple of extra days of rest between games (that game against New Orleans was on Thursday) the Cowboys banged-up weapons on offense, namely Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott have had extra time to get back closer to full strength. I expect them to be all systems go for this favorable matchup on Sunday. Washington hasn't been able to stop or even slow opposing passing games. They've given up 20+ pass completions in six of their last seven games. Here, they'll be without yet another pass rusher in Montez Sweat as he is on the Covid list and being un-vaccinated is unable to play on Sunday. Dak Prescott has the potential to absolutely go off in this one. Washington is coming off consecutive low-scoring affairs. Similar to Dallas' relatively low-scoring performance against the Saints last week, the Football Team hasn't had to score much to secure its last two victories against Seattle and Las Vegas. We should see a different story here, however. Washington WR Terry McLaurin should absolutely wreck Cowboys corner Trevon Diggs, who has been outstanding at intercepting the football but horrible at covering opposing wide receivers. Meanwhile, the Dallas run defense has shown some major cracks in recent weeks, allowing just shy of 5.0 yards per rush over its last three games. Everything should be on the table for QB Taylor Heinecke and the Washington offense in this one. Note that the Football Team scored 25 and 41 points in two meetings against Dallas last season. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Army at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Much has been made of the long 'under' streak in this series, which quite literally goes back nearly two decades. The oddsmakers have obviously made their adjustments, shifting the total all the way down to the mid-30's for this year's matchup. I'm still not sure it's enough. Note that the last two times we've seen totals posted in the 30's in this rivalry, the final score has reached just 27 (2018) and 15 points (2020). Navy checks in having averaged a woeful 4.3 points in its last six non-conference games. Army, meanwhile, has averaged just 17 points the last 60 times it has come off a bye week, as is the case here. We're certainly not going to see much passing in this contest. Both teams know their strength lies in pounding away with their triple-option based offenses. Note that Navy completed just 25-of-55 (45%) of its passes in games where it attempted more than eight passes this season. In games where Army attempted more than six passes it completed only 25-of-53 (47%) of its passes. While both defenses were exposed by the better passing offenses they faced over the course of the regular season, they both excelled against the run with Navy limiting opponents that average 4.6 yards per rush to just 4.1 ypr and Army holding opponents that average 4.3 ypr to only 3.7 ypr. No reason to re-invent the wheel here. While this total may appear very low, I believe it might actually look pretty steep by the time halftime rolls around on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Montana plus the points over James Madison at 7 pm et on Friday.

I'll take a shot with the underdog Grizzlies on Friday night as they travel to Virginia to challenge James Madison. Montana sports the number-five rank in FCS while James Madison is number-two. Montana hasn't lost a game since October 16th at the hands of Sacramento State. Its only other defeat this season came against Eastern Washington back on October 2nd - a loss it avenged in the playoffs last week as it prevailed 57-41 in the rematch. While the Grizzlies offense has been lighting it up, I believe its defense can hang in this one as well. It will certainly be challenged against a Dukes squad that has put up 50+ points in three of its last four games. While JMU does sport the higher overall ranking, it has only faced three top-25 ranked FCS squads during its current seven-game winning streak and none of those opponents were ranked higher than 18th. The Dukes did defeat Weber State, which was at the time ranked number-nine, back in mid-September but the Wildcats didn't turn out to be nearly as good as most expected, losing five games and failing to reach the playoffs. The Dukes are certainly tough at home but not unbeatable as they fell against Villanova on this field back in October. I simply feel this battle-tested Montana squad (last two opponents have been number-three and number-four ranked teams in FCS) can give JMU a difficult test on Friday night and we're being given more than a touchdown to work with (at the time of writing). Take Montana (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Minnesota at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

I don't agree with the move at all as this total has dropped a few points since opening. The Vikings defense is one of the worst in the league in its current form and even with the Steelers boasting a QB that's well past his prime in Ben Roethlisberger and play-calling that leaves a lot to be desired at times, I'm willing to bet on skill players like WR Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson and RB Najee Harris in this matchup. Minnesota has allowed a whopping 94 points over its last three games. Pittsburgh's defense carries a 'brand name' reputation but certainly hasn't performed up to par for much of the campaign, due to injuries and otherwise. The big news here is that the Vikes offense will be without RB Dalvin Cook and WR Adam Thielen - a big reason for the downward shift in the total. That being said, I like the depth the Vikes possess on offense. RB Alexander Mattison is a Dalvin Cook clone while WR K.J. Osborn is capable of picking up some of the slack in Thielen's absence. The Steelers will undoubtedly have their hands full with Vikes WR Justin Jefferson, who should have another monster performance here. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

Seeing plenty of love for the Steelers catching points in this Thursday night matchup but I can't say I agree. Extended losing streaks have been few and far between for the Vikings over the years, noting that they're 57-33 ATS in their last 90 games following consecutive losses. They've yet to lose three games in a row this season despite their 5-7 record. Believe it or not they're still alive in the NFC playoff hunt and I look for them to come up big in this primetime game at home. Yes, Minnesota will be without Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen for this game. With that being said, backup RB Alexander Mattison has been every bit as effective as Cook while the duo of Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn are more than capable of picking up the slack in Thielen's absence. The Vikes defense is certainly a concern but let's not act like the Steelers 'D' has been iron clad either. Note that Pittsburgh's two highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last three games. Take Minnesota (8*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I feel a bit like I'm in some sort of bizarro world with the Bills laying less than a field goal at home against the Patriots on Monday. New England has suddenly become the hunted as it enters Monday's action tied for the AFC's best record at 8-4, holding tie-breakers over the Ravens and Titans so essentially sitting as the conference's number one seed. The Bills can pull even with a victory on Monday night and I expect them to accomplish just that. New England has really played in just two true 'step up' games this season and it lost both against Tampa Bay and Dallas. There have been other tough games to be sure, perhaps most notably a 27-24 road win over the Chargers, but this is going to be one of its stiffest tests of the campaign. The Bills are without one of their best defensive players in Tre'Davious White but the Patriots will likely be without Kyle Dugger as well, so those absences somewhat offset one another. Offensively, the Pats don't have the likes of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Mac Jones has been great and is certainly worthy of consideration for Rookie of the Year but the real key to the New England offense is the underrated stable of running backs. Here's the problem though; the Bills have held the opposition to just 3.9 yards per rush this season with that number improving to 3.2 against divisional foes. That's not to mention the fact that they've allowed just 5.3 yards per pass attmept and the league's fewest completions of 20+ yards. After facing the Panthers, Browns, Falcons and Titans (without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown) in consecutive games, the Pats are in for a shock to the system here. The Bills ran roughshod against a very similar Pats defense in two meetings last season, scoring a whopping 62 points in the process. I like the fact that the Buffalo bandwagon cleared significantly following losses to the Jaguars and Colts. Time to back the Bills on Monday. Take Buffalo (10*).

NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is a textbook fade of the 49ers after they posted three consecutive wins, scoring 30+ points in all three of those contests. Injuries always seem to be an issue when it comes to San Fran and here, they'll be without both WR Deebo Samuel and LB Fred Warner. The Seahawks showed a few positive flashes in Monday's ugly 17-15 loss in Washington but for the most part, bettors are way down on the team from the Pacific Northwest. Having matched a season-long three-game losing streak, I do think the Seahawks get up for this divisional home game. Note that the last time they faced the 49ers they were also down-trodden off consecutive losses and rose to the occasion with a 28-21 win on the road in the first week of October. The clock is most likely ticking on the Russell Wilson and/or Pete Carroll era in Seattle. Noting that the 'Hawks are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games and 55-33 ATS off consecutive losses, I do look for them to give the Niners all they can handle on Sunday afternoon. Take Seattle (10*).

NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

We missed with the 'over' in Seattle's 17-15 loss in Washington on Monday night - we weren't even close with that one. Seattle has now seen the 'under' cash in five straight games and that's a trend I see continuing here. The Seahawks point totals going back to October 7th are 17, 20, 10, 31, 0, 13 and 15. The one outlier was a 31-point outburst against Jacksonville in a game that still stayed 'under' the total. I have, however, been impressed by the way the Seahawks have defended lately and they're well-positioned to slow an undermanned 49ers offense that will be without its best weapon, WR Deebo Samuel here. The Niners offense is in a classic contrarian fade spot after scoring 30+ points in three straight games. Note that the Seahawks have turned into a bit of a pass funnel defense lately and I think that will work out fine in this matchup. San Francisco wants to run the football - noting that it has 39 or more rush attempts in each of its last three games. Seattle has limited opponents to just 3.9 yards per rush - opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush on the season. Over their last three games, the Seahawks have given up just 3.3 ypr. While the Niners offense has been explosive points-wise, they've completed 17 or fewer passes in six of their last seven games. The Seahawks are always going to remain committed to the run as long as Pete Carroll is the head coach (which may not be for much longer). That doesn't mean they'll find success on the ground, however, noting that they've rushed for fewer than 100 yards in five consecutive games. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Chargers continued their frustrating trend of alternating good and bad performances offensively in an ugly 28-13 loss in Denver last Sunday. As has been the case all season long, I expect them to bounce back offensively in this favorable matchup in Cincinnati on Sunday. After scoring 20 or less points this season, Los Angeles has put up 30, 24 and 41 points in its next game. Here, it faces a Bengals squad in line for a bit of a letdown after holding their last two opponents to a grand total of just 23 points. Keep in mind, in their two previous games they had been torched for 75 points. On the flip side, the Bengals are well-positioned to build off of last week's 41-point explosion against the Steelers as the Chargers check in having allowed 42, 34, 27, 24, 27, 37 and 28 points over their last six contests. Yes, Los Angeles is capable of stopping the pass, but the Bengals are just fine with pounding the football in Joe Mixon, who has quietly led one of the best ground attacks in football, averaging 4.5 yards per rush over their last three games. Unlike the last couple of games where the Bengals have been able to take their foot off the gas and throw the football only 29 and 25 times, I do expect the game script to require Joe Burrow to sling it around a little more here, also favoring the 'over'. Take the over (9*).

ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Wake Forest at 8 pm et on Saturday.

This should be an entertaining affair between two teams that have brought a 'defense-optional' mentality to the table this season. I simply have more faith in the Panthers to get a few more stops than I do in the Demon Deacons to do so on Saturday night in Charlotte. Both teams come in sporting identical overall records but it's the Panthers that bring better form to the table. Wake Forest is just one game removed from dropping an ugly 48-27 decision against Clemson which as we know endured a down season. There was also a blown opportunity in Chapel Hill just a month ago as the Demon Deacons fell by a score of 58-55. Holding onto leads and keeping opponents out of the end zone has been a major problem for Wake Forest this season and it will undoubtedly have its hands full with Pitt on Saturday. The Panthers are coming off four straight wins and save for a somewhat inexplicable home loss to Miami have been lights out since the start of October (there was also an early season home loss against Western Michigan). This is a team that I believe has really grown over the course of the season - that was certainly evident in recent hard-fought wins over North Carolina and Virginia that previous Pitt squads may have faltered in. As much as I like what Sam Hartman and Wake can do offensively, I'm not confident that its defense can do anything to slow a highly-efficient Pitt offense here. Take Pittsburgh (10*).