MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Credit the Rams for rallying, led by QB Baker Mayfield, a week ago Thursday, stunning the Raiders with a pair of late touchdowns to steal a victory at home. That win had more to do with Las Vegas taking its foot off the gas than anything else - something I don't expect the Packers to do in front of their home faithful at Lambeau Field on Monday. It's easy to forget Green Bay actually won (and covered) in its most recent game two weeks ago in Chicago. That solid performance against a 'tough out' in the Bears proved that the Pack haven't given up on the season. In fact, I believe their trajectory is pointed up with their offense finally coming around and well-positioned to feast against an Aaron Donald-less Rams defense on Monday. RB Aaron Jones has been dealing with a multitude of injuries but coming off the bye week should be as healthy as he's been in quite some time, and he stands to benefit more than anyone on the Packers offense from the absence of Donald and key run-stopper A'Shawn Robinson. All of the talk last week was about Baker Mayfield somehow absorbing enough of the Rams offensive playbook in just two days (he had signed with the team earlier in the week). Now he's had a little more time to digest the Rams offensive scheme so many expect him to come out firing on Monday. I expect precisely the opposite, noting that Mayfield is still operating behind a poor run and pass blocking offensive line (mostly due to injuries) and with a limited group of weapons around him. Green Bay, despite its overall struggles this season, has remained stout against the pass and should be able to snuff out any thought of Mayfield stringing together a second straight solid performance. Take Green Bay (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Marshall at 2:30 pm et on Monday.

This game is being pegged as a defensive slugfest or at least a sloppy affair according to the total, which sits in the low-40's at the time of writing. I believe we could be in for a far more entertaining, high-scoring contest than most are expecting, however. Both offenses trended in the right direction down the stretch. UConn scored 27, 36 and 17 points in its final three games with the outlier being a game in which run-heavy Army took the air out of the football (that contest still reached 51 points). Marshall scored 28, 23 and 28 points in its final three contests. UConn is expected to get a major offensive boost for this game with previously injured wide receivers Keelan Marion and Cam Ross expected to be back on the field. Marshall welcomed RB Rasheen Ali back for the final two regular season games and he went off, running for 181 yards in those two contests. It's hard to imagine the Huskies having any answers for the Thundering Herd's dynamic backfield duo of Ali and Khalan Laborn, noting that UConn has been cooked for 168 rush yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush this season. Those numbers jump to 218 rush ypg on 5.2 ypr away from Storrs. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Washington at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

With New York having scored 24, 18, 20, 20 and 22 points over its last five games and Washington having put up 32, 23, 19 and 20 points in its last four contests, both of these teams have exhibited reliable scoring floors, if not sky-high ceilings in recent weeks. Neither team will have the element of surprise in its favor here after the two teams played to a 20-20 tie in the Meadowlands two weeks ago (we won with the Giants plus the points in that game). It is worth noting that both offenses did whatever they wanted in that game for the most part, save for scoring touchdowns at the end of drives. Here, Washington should be able to clean things up off its bye week while New York is in a prime bounce-back spot after facing the league-best Eagles last Sunday. Both sides are missing key pieces defensively with CB Adoree' Jackson still sidelined for the Giants and DE Chase Young ruled out for the Commanders. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I'm always looking for spots to play the 'over' in games involving the Chargers and off consecutive 'under' results, I believe it's go-time again on Sunday afternoon. The Titans have seen their last two games go 'over' the total. After being held to 19 points or less in four straight games they've now scored 22 or more points in two of their last four contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 9-1 when Tennessee plays on the road off a loss over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 54.7 points in that spot. Off three straight losses, I do expect to see the Titans go back to their bread-and-butter on Sunday and that means a heavy dose of RB Derrick Henry. While more running doesn't generally support an 'over' play, I think it's a different story here with the Chargers vulnerable against the run, yielding north of 5.0 yards per rush this season. Meanwhile, the Titans are banged-up in their secondary and likely to get cooked by QB Justin Herbert and his full compliment of weapons here. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Chiefs almost let one get away after building a big early lead in Denver last Sunday. I don't expect them to let their foot off the gas again this week, however, and they catch the lowly Texans in a prime letdown spot off last week's near-upset win in Dallas. While Kansas City did allow 28 points against a seemingly punchless Broncos squad last Sunday, that poor performance can't really be pinned entirely on the defense as the offense turned the football over three times. You can be sure head coach Andy Reid has been preaching about playing a 'clean' football game in response this Sunday. The Texans were already down-trodden defensively and now they'll have to deal with the absence of both corners, standout rookie Derek Stingley and Steven Nelson. This is a 'name your score' type of game for the Chiefs offense. While Kansas City enters this game off consecutive ATS losses, it has yet to drop the cash in three straight games this season, responding by scoring 41 and 44 points in two previous contests following consecutive ATS defeats here in 2022. The Texans ultimately covered the spread in Dallas last Sunday but haven't delivered back-to-back ATS victories since way back in Weeks 1 and 2 this season. Take Kansas City (8*).

NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While this game is being pegged as a potential shootout, I believe there's a good chance we see both offenses frustrated on Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field. The Eagles are in a prime letdown spot offensively after scoring a season-high 48 points in last Sunday's rout of the Giants (we won with Philadelphia in that game). The Bears come out fresh off their bye week but with an offense that has regressed, scoring 24, 10 and 19 points over the last three games since putting up 30 or more points in consecutive games earlier in November. The 'over' has actually cashed in each of the Bears last seven contests but this game matches the highest total we've seen over that stretch. For the Eagles, this is the highest total we've seen since October 9th in Arizona - a game that ended up reaching just 37 total points. Both defenses should be familiar with what they'll face on Sunday as quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields are two of the most mobile pivots in the league and the defenses see them operate every day at practice. I believe there's a good chance this develops into a bit of a chess match on Sunday afternoon in the Windy City. Take the under (10*).

AFC Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two AFC East foes this season but probably deserved a better fate after that game got off to a quick start but stalled out thanks to a number of failed red zone trips from the Bills. Miami played keep-away in the south Florida heat on that day in late September, needing to do so to keep its banged-up defense off the field as much as possible. I expect a much different story to unfold in Buffalo on Saturday. Miami has been held down offensively in consecutive losses to the 49ers and Chargers but I expect it to 'get right' here. The Bills are going to be without key run-stopper Jordan Phillips while Matt Milano is banged-up as well. That should open the door for the Fins to restore some offensive balance and ultimately feed Buffalo's front-line a heavy dose of RB Raheem Mostert. The success of Miami's ground game figures to open things up for Tua Tagovailoa and its suddenly dormant passing attack. I'm never all that worried about where the points will come from when it comes to the Bills. They were held in check for the most part against a tough Jets defense last Sunday but should bounce back in sling-shot fashion here. Miami's defense has been good for stretches but has been on the field for an awful lot of football over the last two weeks (thanks to the ineptitude of the offense) and now faces the unenviable task of containing the Bills on a short week, not to mention on the road for the third straight game. This is a blow-up spot for Bills WR Stefon Diggs as Dolphins top corner Xavien Howard hasn't looked right all season due to various injuries. We're seeing a sharp drop from the total in the first meeting this season (that total was set in the low-50's). I don't believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Ravens last Sunday in Pittsburgh but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Browns as they host Baltimore on Saturday afternoon. It wasn't pretty, but the Ravens got the job done against the Steelers last week. QB Tyler Huntley turned in a gutsy performance but now has to play on a short week after suffering a head injury in last Sunday's game. Baltimore will certainly look to lean on its defense again here, but I don't like the spot as Browns QB Deshaun Watson has now had two games under his belt - both on the road no less - and can lean heavily on his backfield, which is line line for a sharp bounce-back performance here. Baltimore has been excellent against the run lately, but has faced a rather straight-forward slate of opponents going all the way back to late October when it travelled to Tampa. The Ravens last six games have come against teh Bucs, Saints, Panthers, Jaguars, Broncos and Steelers - none of which boast a ground attack as dynamic as Cleveland's in my opinion. I saw enough good things from Watson last Sunday and enough improvement from the Browns lagging defense (noting that they catch a favorable matchup against a banged-up Ravens offense here) to warrant a shot with the revenge-minded home side here. Take Cleveland (8*).

My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Fresno State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I like the set up for Washington State here as it comes off an embarrassing 51-33 loss against rival Washington in the Apple Cup and faces a Fresno State squad that is perhaps primed for a letdown off an upset win over Boise State in the Mountain West Conference Championship. Yes, the Cougars have been ravaged by opt-outs and transfers and also their offensive and defensive coordinators ahead of this game. I believe we're seeing a definite overreaction that all of that news, however, with Washington State shifting from a 2.5-point favorite at open to a 4.5-point underdog currently. Fresno State was able to pull away from the awful teams it faced over the course of the regular season (I'm talking about the likes of Cal Poly, New Mexico, Hawaii, Nevada and Wyoming). Rarely did it step up in class and win in convincing fashion, however, with the exception being that 28-16 victory over Boise State in the MWC Championship Game. Everyone is down on Washington State after that blowout loss to Washington after it had previously reeled off four consecutive ATS wins. While there's plenty of talk about the Cougars personnel losses entering this game, they will get back one of their best defenders in CB Armani Marsh, a true difference-maker in the secondary and a huge plus against a dynamic Fresno State passing attack led by QB Jake Haener. Take Washington State (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Oregon State at 2:15 pm et on Saturday.

Most are anticipating a shootout between these two teams on the fast track at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Saturday. I'm not so easily convinced. The Florida Gators will start third-string QB Jack Miller III after Anthony Richardson opted out and backup Jalen Kitna was arrested on child pornography charges. That's not the only issue as the Gators will be without key offensive linemen O'Cyrus Torrence and Josh Braun. Torrence's absence in particular stings as he rates out as one of the best o-linemen in the country. We can expect the Gators to put this one in the hands of their ground game for the most part. Oregon State exploded in the second half for a stunning come-from-behind win over rival Oregon in its regular season finale. Keep in mind, the Beavers scored a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining in the first quarter in that game but didn't reach the end zone again until less than three minutes remaining in the third quarter and much of their offensive success came after the Ducks inexplicably let down their guard nursing a seemingly insurmountable lead. We know the script when it comes to the Beavers without standout QB Chance Nolan. They'll put the game on the shoulders of their ground attack and defense with QB Ben Gulbranson having attempted no more than 28 passes while throwing for 250 yards or less in every game he appeared in (nine) this season. With both teams coming off wild, high-scoring affairs in their respective regular season finales, I can't help but feel this total is inflated. Take the under (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami-Ohio and UAB at 11:30 am et on Friday.

I can't help but feel this total is way off. Neither of these teams have shown any ability to stop or even slow opposing ground attacks, at least lately in the case of Miami-Ohio and all season long when it comes to UAB. The Blazers boast one of the most underrated or overlooked 1-2 tandems in the backfield in the nation in RBs Dewayne McBride and Jermaine Brown and figure to feast on a Miami-Ohio defense that never really got it together over the course of the season. On the flip side, the Blazers were eviscerated for 172 rush yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush over the course of the season. While the Redhawks backfield hasn't been all that explosive, I do think their ability to run the football should open things up for the passing game here. It's worth noting that three of Miami-Ohio's five highest-scoring performances of the season came in its last four contests. UAB's defense - much like Miami-Ohio's - entered the season with optimism but was never able to truly flourish, allowing 20 or more points in 10 of 11 games against FBS opposition. The only occasion where it did hold an FBS opponent to fewer than 20 points that contest still reached 55 total points in a rout of Middle Tennessee State. Take the over (10*).

NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

I think a lot of bettors are talking themselves into backing the home divisional underdog in Seattle on Thursday but I feel it's the wrong move. I don't believe 49ers QB Brock Purdy is going to be a 'one-and-done' story. Yes, he is probably getting too much hype off last Sunday's monster first half against the Buccaneers. That doesn't mean that he can't enjoy continued success, however. The fact is, the Niners gameplan should be focused around getting RB Christian McCaffrey the ball here anyway as the Seahawks have been dismal against the run and could be without one of their best run-stoppers in DT Al Woods after he suffered an achilles injury in last Sunday's loss to the Panthers. The Niners have injury issues of their own, of course, most notably to do-it-all WR Deebo Samuel. This is a deep offense, however, and I'm confident we'll see guys like George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and even Jauan Jennings step up in Samuel's absence. While San Francisco has yielded plenty of yardage to opposing wide receivers this season, that's really only because it has been playing from ahead so much and opponents have bailed on their ground attacks after gaining little headway. How about this - the Niners last six opponents have run for 56, 51, 67, 63, 33 and 69 yards. While I am high on Seahawks rookie RB Kenneth Walker, who is expected to return from injury here, I'm not convinced he'll do anything other than run into the Niners line over and over again on Thursday. Seattle allowed a whopping 30 points to the lowly Panthers last week. That's notable when you consider the Niners haven't allowed 30 points over their last three-and-a-half games. In fact, the Seahawks have yielded 93 points over their last three contests while San Francisco hasn't given up that many points over its last six games combined. I did consider playing the Niners on the moneyline here given the fact that we have seen a number of games decided by a field goal or less between these division rivals over the years. However, noting that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS in games where the line closed at a field goal or less involving these teams this season, I'll confidently lay the points with the visitors here. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Giants plus the points last week against the Commanders but it certainly wasn't easy as they coughed up a late 20-13 lead and ultimately settled for a 20-20 tie. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade New York as it stays home to host the juggernaut Philadelphia Eagles. This is another smash spot for Eagles QB Jalen Hurts as he continues his march to an MVP trophy. The difference this week compared to last Sunday against Tennessee is that Philadelphia should also be able to run the football at will on a G-Men defense that has acted as little more than a swinging-gate against opposing ground games this season. With Philadelphia having shored up its own run defense in recent weeks, it should have little trouble keeping a regressing Giants offense at bay on Sunday afternoon. New York had a few good moments in last week's tie against Washington, but ultimately struggled to put the game away and could do virtually nothing with its overtime drives. Whether RB Saquon Barkley is wearing down or if it's just poor run-blocking on the part of the Giants o-line, there's no question he has regressed considerably. Still technically not out of the woods atop the NFC East, look for the Eagles to lay the hammer down here. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not buying the line move here as I'm not convinced it's a monumental downgrade from Lamar Jackson to Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the Ravens. Jackson has shown flashes of brilliance this season but as a whole, I don't feel he has been as unstoppable or dominant as we've come to expect. He's struggled to connect with his receivers and tight ends on deep passes in particular and while his presence certainly forces the hand of opposing defensive coordinators, I do think Huntley in the starting role bring a different set of challenges as well. Pittsburgh is riding high off consecutive wins but those came against the Colts and Falcons, two opponents that quite simply didn't match up well. It's a different story with the Ravens, and I think we're getting a bargain-basement price to back them in an underdog role here, thanks in large part to the fact they've dropped the cash in three consecutive games heading in. It's hard not to forget that the Ravens went into Pittsburgh without Jackson (RGIII started in his place) in December of 2020, were listed as an 11-point underdog and ultimately gave Pittsburgh all it could handle in a 19-14 loss. Here, I expect John Harbaugh to employ a similar gameplan with the Ravens leaning on their ground attack and defense to effectively shorten proceedings and give themselves a chance. Take Baltimore (8*).

AFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I think we see a 'slingshot effect' from the Browns offense here in QB Deshaun Watson's second game back under center following a nearly two-year absence from game action. Watson didn't look good against an awful Texans defense last week, but Cleveland still found a way to manufacture 27 points and I do think that bodes well going forward. This is a game where the Browns likely find themselves playing from behind in which case we should see them open the playbook far more than they did last week against Houston. The Bengals offense figures to smash in this spot as they catch an already struggling Browns defense without key run-stopping LB Sione Takitaki. All indications are that RB Joe Mixon will be back on the field and of course Ja'Marr Chase is back healthy as well, ready to go off on a vulnerable Browns secondary. While division games often lead to tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affairs, that hasn't been the case in this particular matchup, at least not in Cincinnati, where the last four meetings have produced 57, 71, 56 and 55 total points. Take the over (10*).

NFC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

With Minnesota coming off consecutive 'over' results and Detroit fresh off a high-scoring result of its own last week at home against the Jaguars, I feel this total will prove too high as these two NFC North opponents square off on Sunday afternoon in the Motor City. The Vikings offense really has nowhere to go but down after scoring 60 points combined in consecutive home wins over the Patriots and Jets over the last two weeks. While Detroit's defense was down-trodden earlier in the campaign, this is a unit that has improved as the season has gone on, allowing just 60 points over its last three games combined. Meanwhile, Minnesota has yielded more than 26 points only twice this season with those two poor performances coming in consecutive weeks against the Bills and Cowboys back in November. The Vikes 'D' should be brimming with confidence after saving last week's victory over the Jets with a goal-line stand in the waning seconds. We'll certainly look to fade the Lions offense here after it put up 40 or more points for the second time this season in last week's win over the Jags. The last time Detroit scored 40+ points it followed it up by getting shut out in New England the very next week. While another shutout certainly isn't likely here, I do think both defenses come up with enough stops to keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Army plus the points over Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Even with a sixth win of the season on Saturday, Army still won't be going Bowling this season which is certainly disappointing. I actually don't mind the situation as it is, however, as there's no added pressure in a game where there's already more than enough in this annual stand-alone affair. Both teams come in hot from an ATS perspective with Navy having reeled off three consecutive ATS victories and Army riding a perfect 5-0 ATS run. What I really like about Army is the way it was able to effectively stamp out opposing passing games over the course of the season. I know what you're thinking, that means little against Navy's triple-option based attack (although the Midshipmen did pass more than usual this season, averaging 11 pass attempts per game). I do think it speaks to the strength in the Army secondary, with those defenders in the second and third level hard-hitters capable of moving up in the box and snuffing out big plays from the Midshipmen's ground game. Offensively, Army surges into this contest having rumbled for 275, 323 and 329 rushing yards over its last three games. The level of opposition it faced over that stretch undoubtedly had something to do with it but it's not as if Navy is a defensive powerhouse. Yes, the Midshipmen allowed just 3.1 yards per rush this season but that's largely due to the fact that teams generally only ran on them in obvious running situations. Instead, we saw Navy's opposition attack it through the air relentlessly, gaining a whopping 8.9 yards per pass attempt. Army can sling it a little bit, as it showed in a wild 41-38 loss to UTSA earlier in the season when it completed 13-of-18 passes for over 300 yards. Finally, we'll note that Navy took last year's meeting but hasn't won consecutive matchups with Army since 2014 and 2015. That was the tail-end of a long winning streak in the series that went all the way back to 2001. The previous time Navy won a game over Army (2019), it followed it up with a 15-0 loss the next year (2020). Take Army (8*).

TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

We actually backed the injury-riddled Rams in Kansas City two weeks ago - a game in which they did sniff out an ATS and ultimately delivered a 'push' for most bettors. They followed that up with a loss but cover against the Seahawks last Sunday in a game that featured a misleading final score in my opinion. Were it not for Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker going down to injury early in that contest, I do think Seattle would have run up the score. Note that it scored touchdowns on two of its first three offensive drives before Walker was forced to exit the game and the Seahawks balance disappeared. This Rams defense is a mess without DTs Aaron Donald and A'Shawn Robinson, unable to generate much push or clog up the middle. The Raiders have precisely the type of offense that can expose the L.A. defense with RB Josh Jacobs running as well as anyone in the league, even if he is a little nicked-up (few players are 100% healthy at this stage of the season). With corner Jalen Ramsey having a miserable time on an island on this Rams defense, Raiders WR Davante Adams figures to smash in this spot. In last Sunday's game, Seahawks WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf went off, hauling in a combined 17 catches for 255 yards and two scores. The sky is the limit for Adams here. On the flip side, the Raiders defense is rounding into form at the right time with the duo of Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby terrorizing opposing offensive lines. Of course, the Rams boast one of the league's worst o-lines with QB John Wolford absorbing four sacks last week and now dealing with a neck injury, potentially leaving this game in the hands of newly-signed QB Baker Mayfield, who is with his third different team since last season and has had about two days to learn the playbook. While I don't love backing a team that has reeled off three consecutive ATS wins at this stage of the season, I feel we can confidently back the Raiders against a Rams squad that is already looking ahead to next year. Take Las Vegas (10*).

NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I'll stick with what works here and call for another low-scoring start between the Saints and Buccaneers on Monday night in Tampa. The first time these two teams met this season they combined to score three, yes three, first half points (New Orleans led 3-0 at the break). In fact, the first half 'under' has gone an incredible 10-1 in all Bucs games this season with the only outlier being a wild, high-scoring affair against the Chiefs in Week 4. New Orleans has scored a grand total of 23 first half points in its last four games combined. You would have to go back six games to find the last time it allowed more than 14 points in the first half and that's only happened three times in 12 games so far this season. As for Tampa Bay, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time it put up more than 14 first half points. In fact, it has been held to 10 or fewer first half points in four of its last five contests. Alvin Kamara is one of the Saints lone weapons on offense and he faces a tough matchup here given the fact that the Bucs have all but stamped out opposing running backs, both on the ground and through the air this season. Only one team has allowed fewer catches to opposing running backs, which is obviously Kamara's bread-and-butter. While the Bucs offense showed signs of life last week in Cleveland, this is still very much an under-achieving group facing a revenge-minded Saints squad on Monday. Tom Brady has posted unremarkable results in three of five career matchups against Dennis Allen-coached defenses and just lost one of his best offensive linemen in Tristan Wirfs to an ankle injury. We'll play the first half 'under' only in this spot given the Saints could turn to QB Jameis Winston for a spark against his old team should Andy Dalton struggle early on. Take the first half under (10*).

My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts just got upset at home against the Steelers on Monday Night Football and I think the knee-jerk reaction from most is to fade them again on a short week on the road against the mighty Cowboys in Dallas. Dallas bettors certainly felt wronged thanks to the Giants 'meaningless' touchdown in the final seconds on Thanksgiving, ultimately giving New York the ATS cover. Keep in mind, Indianapolis had gone a perfect 2-0 ATS in controversial coaching hire's first two games prior to Monday's setback. It's not as if the Colts are bereft of talent and I believe they have the personnel in place to effectively shorten this game - precisely what you want from an underdog side catching double-digits on the road. For the Cowboys, I can't help but feel they've reached a lull in their schedule with this game followed by a home date with the lowly Texans and a trip to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars. Prior to this, the 'Boys had gone up against the Packers and Vikings on the road and the division-rival Giants on Thanksgiving over a three-game stretch. Noting that Dallas is just 9-12 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 25 points or more in four consecutive games while the Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests off an outright loss as a favorite, we'll confidently back Indy here. Take Indianapolis (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the 'over' in the Seahawks overtime loss to the Raiders last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they hit the road to face the down-trodden Rams on Sunday in Los Angeles. I'm not one bit worried about the Seahawks offense. They should go off against a Rams defense that is now missing all-world DT Aaron Donald among others. Meanwhile, Los Angeles will give the start to QB John Wolford - his first start since Week 10 against Arizona. Head coach Sean McVay has indicated that Wolford gives them a better chance to 'run their offense' given his experience over rookie Bryce Perkins, who was largely ineffective against the Chiefs last week. I believe 'running their offense' will involve throwing the football more, noting that the Rams had 37 pass attempts in Wolford's last start. The Seahawks defense can certainly be had, as we saw in last week's shootout loss against the Raiders. Considering we saw totals of 47.5 and 53.5 when the Seahawks and Rams matched up last year, I believe this total will prove too low on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As bad as things have gone for the Packers this season, they can take solace in the fact that they're still better than the Bears, and by a wide margin in my opinion. Green Bay draws Chicago in a smash spot here. The Bears might have QB Justin Fields back but how effective he can be remains to be seen. His supporting cast should be downgraded with WR Darnell Mooney now sidelined. The Packers figure to control proceedings from the get-go with an emerging offense led by WR Christian Watson, who is finally evolving into a downfield threat. RB Aaron Jones is in line for a massive bounce-back performance here against a Bears defense that can't stop, or even slow opposing ground attacks since dealing away much of its talent prior to the trade deadline. There haven't been a lot of feel-good moments for Packers fans this season but this will be one of them. Take Green Bay (8*).

AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This game has shootout potential as the Texans look to avenge last year's 31-21 loss to the Browns. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in last year's meeting but I don't believe the move is warranted. It has everything to do with the fact that the Texans have been involved in a string of relatively low-scoring games with the 'under' cashing in each of their last three contests. The Browns posted an 'under' result last week as well as they pulled out a 23-17 overtime win over the Bucs. Here, Cleveland's offense figures to get a boost from the return of QB Deshaun Watson. While Watson is dealing with returning from a long layoff, he draws an ideal matchup against a Texans defense that has seen things go from bad to worse. Houston checks in having allowed 29, 24, 23 and 30 points over its last four games, getting ethered by both the pass and the run. The Browns held up alright defensively on paper last week against the Bucs, but this is still a vulnerable unit that doesn't do anything particularly well. The Texans will give QB Kyle Allen another start in place of an ineffective Davis Mills. Allen was at least in sync with WR Nico Collins last Sunday, hitting him on six of nine targets. WR Brandin Cooks is expected to miss this game but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he's been virtually invisible this season. RB Dameon Pierce remains the focal point of the Texans offense and he should bounce back with a full workload after being taken out of the gameplan thanks to Houston trailing big early last week in Miami. The Browns have been touched up for 4.8 yards per rush attempt this season. Take the over (10*).

AFC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a game that the Texans have likely been waiting for just as long as the Browns have as Cleveland gives former-Texan Deshaun Watson his long-awaited first start with his new team following a long suspension. This is a prime letdown spot for Cleveland after it pulled out an improbable 23-17 overtime win over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last Sunday. I'm not ready to start believing in this 4-7 team just yet, however, noting they had lost consecutive games by a combined margin of 30 points prior to that upset victory. Cleveland has won just once on the road this season and that victory came by only two points in Carolina way back in Week 1. Here, the Browns are laying more than a touchdown. Houston is riding a season-high six-game losing streak and has dropped the cash in a season-high three consecutive games as well. I do feel that QB Kyle Allen gives them a better chance to win than Davis Mills at this point. The reality is the offense should run through RB Dameon Pierce and he figures to eat against a Browns defense that has struggled mightily against the run this season. Note that this is also a 'revenge game' for Houston after it dropped a 31-21 decision in Cleveland last year. There are very few spots where I would recommend backing the Texans the rest of the way, but this just happens to be one of them. Take Houston (10*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Commanders have won three games in a row to climb into the playoff conversation in the NFC. I expect a letdown here, however, as they hit the road to face the Giants on Sunday. Washington has benefited from a 7-3 turnover margin in its favor over its last three contests. Here, I can't help but feel we'll see the Giants wreak havoc defensively against Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke, who I do feel has been walking the thin line between success and failure over the last few games. Getting back Evan Neal on the offensive line should pay immediate dividends for Giants RB Saquon Barkley, who has admittedly struggled in recent weeks. Once again, not much will be asked of QB Daniel Jones. The hope here is that he's tasked with playing with a lead rather than from behind as we saw last week against Dallas. Note that Washington is a long-term loser in the role of favorite, going 70-103 ATS. Meanwhile, New York has delivered the cash 11 of the last 13 times it has come off a Thursday game, as is the case here. Take New York (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and Boise State at 4 pm et on Saturday.

I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday afternoon as Fresno State battles Boise State for the Mountain West Conference championship. Fresno State has been building toward this game, seemingly improving defensively with each passing week, going from 30 points allowed against UNLV on November 11th to just 14 and 0 over the next two games against Nevada and Wyoming, respectively. Boise State did put up 42 points in last week's rout of Utah State but it isn't the offensive juggernaut it once was. You can be sure the Broncos will exercise some caution offensively here as Fresno State has been very opportunistic on defense, collecting five turnovers in the last two games combined and 11 over its last five contests. Noting that Boise State has completed more than 20 passes only twice in 12 games this season, topping out at 34 pass attempts over its last 11 games, it's unlikely we'll see the Broncos slinging it all over the field here. It's a different story for the Jake Haener-led Fresno State offense as it is pass-happy to say the least. With that being said, Boise State should match up well in that regard, noting that it has allowed 20+ pass completions and 300+ passing yards only twice this season, including last week against Utah State in a game where the Aggies could muster 'only' 23 points. The first meeting between these two teams totalled 60 points in a Boise State blowout earlier this season. I do think the Bulldogs have improved defensively since then and a more tightly-contested affair should lend itself to a lower-scoring contest as well this time around. Considering the closing total for that first matchup was 45.5, the case can certainly be made that we're working with an inflated number here. Take the under (8*).

Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Troy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We got precisely the results we wanted out of both of these teams over the last couple of games to set us up exceptionally well with the 'under' in this Sun Belt Conference Championship matchup on Saturday. Both teams saw their last two contests go 'over' the total, not only that, but both were turnover-prone in their respective regular season finale, leading them to perhaps approach this game with a little more caution than they might have otherwise. For Coastal Carolina, there's certainly reason to go ultra-conservative on offense in this game with QB Jarrett Guest struggling since taking over for NFL prospect Grayson McCall. Guest was directly responsible for two turnovers in each of the last two games (his two starts since McCall went down with a season-ending injury). Facing an opportunistic and perennially-tough Troy defense here, the Chanticleers won't want to leave anything to chance, perhaps putting this game largely in the hands of their defense (which is in line for a strong bounce-back effort after a poor performance against James Madison last week). Troy hung 48 points on the scoreboard in last week's rout of hapless Arkansas State. Keep in mind, however, that the Trojans actually didn't reach the end zone for a second time in that game until there were less than five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Like Guest, Troy QB Gunnar Watson has also been mistake-prone tossing an interception to go along with a lost fumble in last week's contest. The Trojans, like the Chanticleers, want to run the football, but will be running into a Coastal Carolina defense that has held up reasonably well against the run this season, allowing 4.0 yards per rush overall and 3.7 away from home. Down the stretch the Chanticleers stiffened up against opposing ground attacks, yielding fewer than 90 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Coastal Carolina has put up 36, 42 and 35 points in winning the last three meetings in this series but they didn't match up in the regular season this year, and we're obviously talking about much different Chanticleers squads, certainly in those games with McCall at the helm of the offense. Noting that Troy has held seven straight opponents to fewer than 20 points but also finds itself in a letdown of sorts offensively off its highest-scoring performance of the season, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over USC at 8 pm et on Friday.

USC has every reason to be the more 'motivated' team ahead of this one. After all, it currently resides in the fourth and final spot in the College Football Playoff picture and will be looking to avenge its lone previous loss this season. Motivation only takes you so far, however, and I'm a believer that it shouldn't really play a role in handicapping as it's rarely lost on the betting marketplace. I'll grab the points with Utah here as it looks to defend its Pac-12 Championship and play as spoiler to USC's national title hopes at the same time. The Utes should be nice and warmed up for this contest after shredding through Colorado by a 63-21 score last Saturday. Meanwhile, the Trojans are coming off a win (and cover) in their annual showdown with Notre Dame - their third consecutive ATS victory. We'll back the better defense while also fading the Heisman Trophy candidate in USC QB Caleb Williams. Here, we'll note that USC is just 37-58 ATS in its last 95 games played away from home off consecutive victories and a woeful 7-18 ATS in its last 25 December games. Take Utah (10*).

AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New England at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the 'under' in the Bills Thanksgiving Day victory in Detroit last Thursday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they stay on the road to face the division-rival Patriots in Foxborough. While Buffalo has still put up 30, 31 and 28 points over its last three contests, it hasn't looked totally in-sync. Whether that has to do with Josh Allen's injury is up for debate. With the Patriots having had an extra couple of days to prepare for this tall task, I do think we'll see their defense, which is still underrated at this late stage of the season in my opinion, keep Allen and Co. in check, relatively-speaking at least. I'm willing to chalk up last week's allowance of 33 points in Minnesota as an aberration as the Pats suffered a 'shock to the system' of sorts after facing the Jets (twice) and Colts over a three-week span heading in. I think we see their defense bounce back here. On the flip side, the Pats have gone fairly conservative offensively ever since Mac Jones orchestrated a turnover-fest against the Bears in a Monday nighter in late October. Since then, the Pats have turned the football over just twice in four games, without a single TO in their last two. While the Bills are known for their offense, they can play elite defense as well and while losing Von Miller to an injury hurts, the rest of the defense is as healthy as it's been in quite some time off the extended week. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in Bills road games this season. We've also seen the 'under' go 6-1 with Buffalo coming off consecutive games totalling 50 or more points over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

I don't know how you can be all that high on the Eagles right now as they enter Sunday's contest off three consecutive ATS losses after narrowly escaping with a 17-16 win in Indianapolis last Sunday. The time to fade the Packers was last Thursday - fresh off a huge come-from-behind upset win over the Cowboys - which we did with the Titans in that game. Now everyone has once again written off Aaron Rodgers and company in a spot where I believe they can give the Eagles all they can handle. Note that Green Bay laid waste to Philadelphia by a 30-16 score the last time they met less than two years ago. In that contest, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts completed 5-of-12 passes for 109 yards, one touchdown and one interception while running five times for 29 yards. Interestingly, TE Dallas Goedert led the Eagles in catches and receiving yards in that game. He's now sidelined, leaving the tight end position to a duo that includes Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra. Obviously Hurts is a much better quarterback now than he was two years ago. With that being said, I don't believe there's any sort of intimidation factor at play, certainly not after the Commanders and Colts bottled up this Eagles offense over the last two weeks. The Packers are an interesting study in many regards, still boasting plenty of talent on both sides of the football, and perhaps a chip on their shoulder in the 'spoiler' role down the stretch. Take Green Bay (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Yeah, the Rams are going nowhere this season. Everyone knows that. They're also missing most of their key contributors on offense - a unit that is almost unrecognizable at this point. The Chiefs know that as well and off a hard-fought, come-from-behind, last minute victory over the Chargers last week, I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown here. Kansas City doesn't run away and hide on the opposition this season. You could say only two of their games have been true blowouts - a 44-21 win in Arizona way back in Week 1 and a 44-23 rout of the 49ers on October 23rd. Here, they'll be facing a Rams team that has allowed more than 27 points just once all season, and they'll do so with their own injury issues. Already thin at the wide receiver position, they're still without Mecole Hardman and now Kadarius Toney is banged-up as well. Note that Kansas City has allowed 17 or more points in all 10 games so far this season so there's little reason to expect it to completely shut down the Rams offense here. I do like Los Angeles' chances of churning out some long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game on Sunday and that certainly works in our favor catching north of two touchdowns. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results with neither of those contests breaking 40 points. That might lead some to believe that this total is too high, currently sitting in the high-40's. I believe it will prove far too low as this game has true shootout potential. The Raiders offense didn't match up particularly well against the Broncos stout defense last week but WR Davante Adams still went off, scoring the game-winning touchdown in walk-off fashion. Adams figures to stuff the boxscore again this week as the Seahawks don't have a single defender capable of containing the all-world receiver. That's not to mention the fact that Seattle has been vulnerable against the run and will be looking to stop an underrated Raiders ground attack led by workhorse RB Josh Jacobs. On the flip side, there's little reason to expect the Raiders will contain a Seahawks offense that should snap back like a rubber band after struggling against the Bucs tough defense in Munich prior to the bye week. The extra week off should have given WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett extra time to heal up their nagging injuries and I'm confident that duo will go off, much like Adams, in this contest. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker is rightfully the focal point of the Seahawks offense at this point and he's in line for a monster day as well with the Raiders ranking as a bottom-five run stopping unit in the league. Take the over (9*).

My selection is on New York minus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While I would prefer to be in on this one at the opener, I still expect the Jets to come away with a double-digit victory, so I'll lay the touchdown on Sunday afternoon in New Jersey. Should Justin Fields end up playing, we'll see this line come down in which case I would elevate this to a 9* play. The potential is there for a 'slingshot effect' when it comes to the Jets offense in this one as they make the switch to Mike White at quarterback in place of an ineffective and mistake-prone Zach Wilson. There are too many gamebreakers on this offense for it to be held back by its quarterback. White isn't going to set the world on fire, but he will do a better job of limiting mistakes and getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Keep in mind, New York is coming off a brutal four-game stretch that saw it face the Broncos, Patriots (twice) and Bills defenses so lining up against the Bears down-trodden unit should offer a breath of fresh air. Already struggling in pass defense, Chicago is now down two of its best (relatively-speaking) young corners in Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon. While it may be counter-intuitive to lay this type of number with the Jets, they've actually won a pair of games by 17 and 23 points and half of their six victories have come by at least a touchdown. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Washington at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Washington Huskies opened the season by winning four straight games ATS, all in a favorite role. Since then, however, they've gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. After scoring a season-high 54 points in last week's rout of the hapless Colorado Buffaloes, we'll fade the Huskies here as they take on a Washington State squad that has shaken off a midseason lull to win three consecutive games and four in a row ATS heading into this rivalry showdown. Finally having found a consistent ground attack, the Cougars are suddenly dangerous offensively, racking up well over 600 rushing yards over the last three games alone. Noting that Washington is just 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after covering its previous contest as a double-digit favorite, we'll get behind the underdog Cougars here. Take Washington State (8*).

My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Air Force at 9 pm et on Saturday.

San Diego State has risen from the ashes following a poor 2-3 start to the campaign, winning five of its last six contests to firmly plant itself in the Bowl picture. Both Air Force and San Diego State are in uncharted territory here, riding respective three-game winning streaks. There's no question it's the Aztecs that are playing better football, however, noting that Air Force has gone just 1-3 ATS over its last four contests and 2-5 ATS over its last seven overall. Meanwhile, San Diego State checks in 4-1 ATS over its last five games. You know the saying; good teams win, great teams cover. While I'm not sure we should be crowning this San Diego squad as 'great', I do think it is good enough to hand Air Force a 10th consecutive loss in this series going all the way back to 2010. Take San Diego State (10*).

My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Going into Corvallis and coming away with a victory isn't easy. Oregon knows that as it dropped its most recent trip here as a near-two touchdown favorite in 2020. On Saturday, I look for a revenge-minded Beavers squad (after losing last year's matchup by a score of 38-29) to play spoiler against the rival Ducks. Oregon is in a clear letdown spot here off a big win over Utah last week, as it successfully avenged a pair of losses suffered at the hands of the Utes last season, including one in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Noting that the Beavers have gone a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 lined home games, we'll confidently back them in an underdog role here. Take Oregon State (8*).

My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Indiana at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the set-up for this play as Indiana returns home off an upset win over Michigan State in overtime last week, all but dashing its hopes of Bowl eligibility. It's not as if the Hoosiers had been playing good football - they entered that contest losers of three straight games ATS. Since dropping consecutive games against Wisconsin and Iowa, Purdue has managed to win its last two contests and is now in the position to potentially reach the Big Ten Championship Game with a win after Iowa was upset by Nebraska yesterday. Here, we'll note that Indiana is 0-7 ATS the last seven times it has come off an outright win as a double-digit underdog, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 18.4 points in that situation. Take Purdue (8*).

My selection is on San Jose State minus the points over Hawaii at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

This is a smash spot for San Jose State as it limps home off a pair of tough losses against San Diego State and Utah State. The Spartans have now dropped the cash in five straight games but I'm confident they can turn it around right before Bowl season as they host a hapless Hawaii squad on Saturday. I say Hawaii is hapless but let's at least give it credit for outlasting UNLV at home last week. The Rainbow Warriors actually check in off consecutive ATS victories but I don't believe a third straight is in the cards, noting that they've gone 8-21 ATS the last 29 times they've played on the road off back-to-back ATS victories. San Jose boasts one of the best run defenses in the conference and should be able to make Hawaii one-dimensional here, ultimately pulling away for a convincing win. Take San Jose State (8*).

My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Fresno State at 10 pm et on Friday.

Wyoming might not be the most exciting team to watch, unless you're a football purist. The Cowboys rarely throw the football, certainly shifting to a more run-centric offensive gameplan as the season has gone on. But they have an outstanding defense, not to mention a ground game that can carry the load offensively. After giving Boise State all it could handle in a three-point defeat (as a 14.5-point underdog) last week, I look for Wyoming to turn in a repeat performance against Fresno State on Friday. The Bulldogs are coming off a 41-14 rout of a disappointing Nevada squad last Saturday and enter this contest riding a six-game winning streak after opening the campaign with four losses in their first five games. I believe there's reason for Fresno State to be on 'upset alert' here, noting that it has been quite pedestrian in run defense this season, yielding 4.5 yards per rush attempt. After turning the football over three times in last week's narrow loss to Boise State, we can anticipate Wyoming going even more conservative here in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings as north of a two-touchdown underdog on the road. Having dropped three straight meetings in this series, including a 17-0 shutout defeat last year, look for the revenge-minded Cowboys to stick around for four quarters on Friday. Take Wyoming (8*).

My selection is on Florida plus the points over Florida State at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

Not a difficult decision to back the Gators in this bounce-back spot off a 31-24 road loss against an improved Vanderbilt squad last week. Florida is just one-game removed from a two-game winning streak that saw it outscore Texas A&M and South Carolina by a 79-30 margin. Meanwhile, Florida State is fresh off its highest-scoring performance of the season, hanging 49 points on a weak Louisiana-Lafayette squad last Saturday. I never really like teams scheduling games like that at this late stage of the season as I feel it can throw them off course and result in a 'shock to the system' of sorts the next week (as these late season games tend to be difficult matchups). Entering off four straight ATS victories, I can't help but feel the Seminoles are overvalued here. Take Florida (8*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over California at 4:30 pm et on Friday.

While some feel UCLA could be in for a letdown here off last week's tough 48-45 loss to USC, I don't expect anything of the sort. After all, the Bruins check in off consecutive losses and this serves as a 'get right' matchup against Cal. The Bears are coming off a 27-20 win over Stanford last week. Color me unimpresssed as they failed to reach the end zone until nearly four minutes into the third quarter in that victory. We successfully faded Cal two weeks back as it fell by a 38-10 score at Oregon State - a game in which it's offense was held out of the end zone for the entire 60 minutes (the Bears only touchdown came on a fumble return). While UCLA has given up a ton of points this season, a lot of that has been game-script related. The Bruins actually match up well here, noting that they've held the opposition to just 3.9 yards per rush this season and that's an area where Cal needs to made headway as when it gets pass-happy, it also tends to turn the football over. QB Jack Plummer has thrown just five touchdowns to go along with six interceptions over the last four games and is likely to be under duress most of the game on Friday. Take UCLA (10*).

SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Ole Miss at 7 pm et on Thursday.

While this isn't Army-Navy, these two teams have now gone 'under' each of the last five times they've met over the last five seasons. I'm expecting that trend to continue on Thursday. The Bulldogs offense hasn't been the same high-octane scoring machine it was earlier in the campaign. Yes, they exploded for 56 points last Saturday, but that was against FCS squad East Tennessee State. They were held to fewer than 20 points in three of four games prior to that and in the other scored only three offensive touchdowns in regulation time against Auburn. It's been a similar story for Ole Miss as its offense has struggled as the schedule has toughened up. Last Saturday against Arkansas, the Rebels didn't score a touchdown until nearly a minute into the fourth quarter, when the game was already well in hand for the Razorbacks, up 42-6. Two games back against Alabama, Ole Miss couldn't muster a single point from seven minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Even the game prior to that, an eventual 31-28 win over Texas A&M, the Rebels scored a touchdown less than two minutes into the game but then didn't reach the end zone again until nearly midway through the third quarter. Take the under (10*).

NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday.

Last Thanksgiving, we saw the Cowboys fall in a wild, high-scoring shootout against the Raiders (in overtime) but I expect a much different story to unfold in this year's instalment as Dallas draws a divisional foe in the New York Giants. Of course, the Giants allowed a season-high 31 points in last Sunday's home loss against the Lions. While they're dealing with some key injuries in the secondary, I do expect them to at the very least do a better job of defending the Cowboys than the Vikings did last Sunday (we won with Dallas and the 'under' in that game). The presence of DT Leonard Williams has certainly made a difference for New York's run defense, noting that it has held opponents to 4.3 yards per rush over the last three games (5.3 ypr allowed this season). Don't count on the Giants abandoning the run the way the Vikings did against Dallas last Sunday (that was largely game-script related as they fell behind big early). While RB Saquon Barkley hasn't been his usual dominant self in recent weeks, the G-Men will still want to get all they can out of him in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives to effectively shorten this contest as double-digit underdogs. New York, unlike Minnesota, also has a mobile quarterback that can help in minimizing the effectiveness of Dallas' ferocious pass rush. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Giants have come off a game in which they allowed 31 or more points, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 31.5 points in that situation. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday.

This is the highest posted total on this week's NFL board and I believe it will prove too high at Ford Field on Thursday afternoon. The Bills offense 'should' have its way with a weak Lions defense in this one but I can't help but feel their ceiling is somewhat capped by QB Josh Allen's nagging elbow injury. He's coming off a poor performance against a very beatable Browns defense last Sunday and now plays on a short week, knowing he'll need to be somewhat cautious against an opportunistic Lions defense that has forced seven turnovers in the last three games. With injury concerns on their offensive line, I'm not expecting much from the Lions offense here. Speaking of capped ceilings, that's precisely what we've seen from Detroit's offense with QB Jared Goff at the helm. Note that while the Lions have scored 31 points in consecutive games, they've completed just 14, 19 and 17 passes for 137, 228 and 165 passing yards over their last three contests. I can't help but feel the optimal gameplan here involves making running backs Jamaal Williams and DeAndre Swift the focal point on Thursday afternoon, in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives to effectively shorten proceedings as a two-score underdog. Detroit's recent scoring spike has also had something to do with the fact that it has turned the football over just once over its last four games. It will need to be cautious here, however, noting that Buffalo has forced at least one turnover in seven straight games. Take the under (10*).

NFC West Total of the Month (1H). My selection is on the first half 'under' between San Francisco and Arizona at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The 49ers have generally been slow starters offensively this season, scoring more than 14 points in the first half only once through their first seven games. While we won with the first half 'over' in last week's eventual victory over the Chargers, I won't hesitate to go the other way as they head to Mexico to face the Cardinals on Monday night. Arizona came up with its best defensive effort in weeks in a 27-17 victory over the Rams last week. I actually don't mind Colt McCoy at quarterback given the team's current state as he doesn't tend to stretch out plays and force the offensive line to block for extended periods the same way Kyler Murray does (McCoy also lacks Murray's elusiveness and mobility of course). This is obviously a favorable matchup for the 49ers vaunted defense but I do think the Cards can do enough to extend some drives and eat some clock early on. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense remains somewhat capped in terms of its ceiling with QB Jimmy Garropolo at the helm. My concern for the full game 'under' in this one is that the Cards defense wears down and ends up getting exposed by San Francisco's ground attack and middle-of-the-field passing attack as the game goes on. Early, I do think the Cards can hang, however. Here, we'll note that the first half 'under' is 8-2 with the Niners coming off four or five wins in their last six games over the last three seasons and 5-1 with the Cards following up consecutive 'over' results over the same stretch. Take the first half under (10*).

AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The first matchup between these teams came back in Week 2 and was not surprisingly pegged as a shootout but fizzled somewhat as the Chiefs pulled out a 27-24 victory that stayed just 'under' the total. While both offenses are missing or dealing with some banged-up key pieces, I believe we're in for a true back-and-forth shootout in Sunday night's rematch. Kansas City's offense keeps rolling along with a 'next man up' philosophy, particularly at the wide receiver position where QB Patrick Mahomes serves as a true talent-elevator. The Chiefs backfield has been a revolving door this season as well but should feast on a Chargers defense that hasn't been able to even slow opposing running games this season and now deals with a cluster of injuries along its defensive line. Los Angeles is expected to have wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back on the field on Sunday. Regardless whether they're 100% healthy, their presence alone should give the offense a much-needed boost after it stalled in the second half against the 49ers last week. QB Justin Herbert has fared exceptionally well against this Chiefs defense in recent years and should be in for another boxscore-stuffing performance on Sunday night. Given Kansas City's tendency to allow opposing running backs to get loose in the short passing game, Chargers RB Austin Ekeler sets up well to go off in this matchup as well. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 in the Chargers last nine games following a road loss, resulting in an average total of 55.3 points. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Minnesota at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the way this game sets up for Dallas as it looks to bounce back from a blown opportunity in an overtime loss in Green Bay last week. The Cowboys match up well with the Vikings. We know that as they managed to win right here at U.S. Bank Stadium with Cooper Rush starting his first game on Halloween Night last year. They came through as a 4.5-point underdog in that game. Here, they're being favored (at the time of writing) and it's the right move in my opinion. Minnesota is fresh off a stunning come-from-behind win in Buffalo last Sunday. Keep in mind, that game certainly could have gone either way. The Vikings were the benefactors of a number of breaks or dare I say 'lucky' plays late in that contest. Sometimes you have to be good to be lucky, I know. With that said, the Vikes have only checked in as an underdog twice this season. In the other instance, against another NFC East foe in Philadelphia, they lost by 17 points. While things didn't ultimately go their way last Sunday, the Cowboys are still 2-1 SU and ATS since getting QB Dak Prescott back on the field. Now sitting at 9-1 on the season, the Vikes are going to get everyone's best shot from here on out, and I simply feel Dallas is the superior team in this matchup. Take Dallas (8*).

NFC Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Most have this game projected as a shootout between two of the NFC's elite teams in the friendly confines of U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. I'm not so easily convinced. Both teams are coming off poor defensive performances last week with the Cowboys coming away with an overtime loss against the down-trodden Packers and the Vikings coming from behind to defeat the Super Bowl-contending Bills, also in overtime. While Minnesota's defense continues to give up a ton of yardage to opposing offenses, it has done a reasonable job of limiting points, and more specifically touchdowns. Note that last week marked the first time all season the Vikings had yielded more than 26 points in a game. They haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since a three-game 'over' streak from Weeks 3 through 5. The Cowboys have one of the better defenses in the league but haven't shown it in the last couple of games against the Bears and Packers. That's been somewhat game-script dependent as they've been playing from ahead most of the way (something they don't necessarily project to do here in this near pk'em priced contest). Note that Dallas enters this game leading the NFL in sacks per game and only two teams have held the opposition to fewer yards per pass play. While you can run on these Cowboys, it seems that opponents are rarely able to resist the urge to test their aggressive pass defenders, often leading to negative results. Here, we'll note that the Cowboys have checked in as a road favorite of a field goal or less only twice over the last three seasons and both of those games stayed 'under' the total. The 'under' is also 9-4 in the Vikings last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous contest and 25-12 the last 37 times they've played at home after winning six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 42.0 points. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We got burned with the 'over' in the Texans most recent game as they were stymied time and time again in the red zone, falling by a 24-16 score on the road against the Giants. I do think we'll see them clean things up back home on Sunday as they catch the Commanders playing on a short week off a massive upset win in Philadelphia on Monday night. On the flip side, we know the Commanders want to run the football, which often works against playing 'overs' in today's NFL. With that being said, the Texans have shown no ability to stop the run this season, yielding 5.2 yards per rush. Standout rookie cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. has been a bright spot for the Texans otherwise pedestrian defense this season but now he's sidelined due to injury. His absence should have the Commanders looking to take their shots downfield with an underrated group of wide receivers led by Terry McLaurin. Take the over (8*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Lions suddenly have a good thing going after delivering a home win over the Packers and a come-from-behind road victory over the Bears in consecutive weeks. Now they head to the Meadowlands to face a Giants team that I still consider a 'paper tiger' even as they sit at an impressive 7-2 nine games into the campaign. Last week was a good spot to back the Giants. They ultimately covered by the narrowest of margins but really had no business winning that game as their offense did virtually nothing while the underdog Texans marched into the red zone time and time again but simply couldn't finish drives with touchdowns. Here, I'm not sure New York will be so fortunate. The G-Men have been gashed for 5.4 yards per rush this season with no easy fix in sight. There's certainly a path for the Lions to effectively shorten this game with an offense that's more than capable of staying on the field for extended stretches. Defensively, the Lions have their warts but the Giants offensive ceiling is always capped thanks to its one-dimensional nature. RB Saquon Barkley will get his but at some point in this game, I expect QB Daniel Jones to be called upon to be a difference-maker. I'm not convinced he comes through, noting that New York has totalled fewer than 20 pass completions in four straight games and has topped out at a pitiful 213 passing yards in a game this season. Take Detroit (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between USC and UCLA at 8 pm et on Saturday.

USC has now seen each of its last four games go 'over' the total, even though last week's game against Colorado really had no business getting there (yes, I'm still a little sour after backing the 'under' in that game). In that game against the Buffaloes, the Trojans defense came up big, holding Colorado out of the end zone until there were fewer than six minutes remaining in the third quarter. Offensively, USC didn't score a touchdown until the fifth minute of the second quarter and it will obviously be facing a tougher challenge against a UCLA defense that has given up its share of points, but has come up big at times as well. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-8 the last 27 times USC has gone on the road after scoring 37+ points in consecutive games, resulting in an average total of just 51.9 points. UCLA, meanwhile, checks in off a stunning 34-28 home loss against Arizona and that's notable as the 'under' is 27-9 in the Bruins last 36 games when coming off a loss by a touchdown or less in conference play. That situation has produced an average total of only 50.0 points. Last year we saw a closing total of 65.5 in this matchup. The fact that game totaled a whopping 95 points and USC is on an 'over' streak has this total set higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under (8*).

SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Georgia at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

While things have gone a little sideways for Kentucky following a perfect 4-0 start to the campaign, I'm still a believer in this Wildcats squad and feel they can give undefeated Georgia a run on Saturday afternoon in Lexington. While the Bulldogs remain undefeated on the season at 10-0 and come off consecutive ATS victories as well, it's not as if it's been a completely smooth ride. Georgia has actually turned the football over seven times while forcing only two turnovers over its last three games. Remember, there was a scare on the road against an average Missouri team (the Wildcats beat the Tigers on the road two weeks ago) - a game Georgia won by only four points. The Wildcats suffered an inevitable letdown at home against Vanderbilt last week after it gained Bowl eligibility with a sixth victory the game previous. I'm confident it can pick itself back up here as the Bulldogs are obviously an easy opponent to get up for. Note that Kentucky has yet to allow more than 24 points in a game this season and it can run the football (although not as consistently as you'd like to see given its backfield talent). That's to say there's a path for the Wildcats to effectively shorten this game and keep it competitive for four quarters. Note that you would have to go back four games here in Lexington - all the way to 2014 - to find the last time Georgia defeated Kentucky by more than 17 points on this field. The Wildcats defense has matched up fairly well against the Bulldogs in recent years, allowing 'only' 30, 14 and 21 points in the last three meetings in this series. Take Kentucky (10*).

ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the underdog Hurricanes as they look to pick up that all-important sixth win of the season. Of course, it will be an uphill battle trying to win outright as a near-three touchdown underdog but we're not concerned about the outright victory here, only that the Canes can stay competitive for four quarters and I'm confident that they can. Everything mighty Clemson was working toward was essentially trashed in a blowout loss against Notre Dame in South Bend two weeks ago. Credit the Tigers for bouncing back with a 31-16 home win over Louisville last week but I can't help but feel an empty feeling still remains for these Clemson players. Miami picked up a critical road win at Virginia three games back before suffering an inevitable letdown back at home against Florida State. Yes, the Canes got crushed by the Seminoles but a loss is a loss and they moved on just fine, notching a 35-14 win at Georgia Tech last Saturday. While the Canes no longer have the services of QB Tyler Van Dyke as he's been lost to a shoulder injury, I actually think his replacement Jacurri Brown is a good fit in this offense. He made the big plays when needed and showed that he could do some things with his legs as well, gaining 87 rushing yards on 19 attempts. Quietly, Canes standout WR Xavier Restrepo returned from injury a few games back and has been slowly worked back into the offense. He's capable of making a splash this week in my opinion. With that said, I believe the path to Miami success here against the Tigers involves leaning on its terrific ground attack, not to mention is still-underrated defense. It's not as if Clemson has been blowing the doors off of its opponents this season. The Tigers have topped out at 34 points over their last six games. We've also seen teams move the football on this Clemson defense, stunningly on the ground as the Tigers have been ripped for 206, 124, 263 and 150 rushing yards over their last four contests. The last time these two teams met was in 2020 when Clemson rolled to a 42-17 home victory. The pointspread would seem to indicate Miami hasn't closed the gap at all - in fact, quite the opposite - since that meeting but I believe it has and will show it on the field on Saturday. Take Miami (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Northwestern and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting. Northwestern's season has been circling the drain for weeks now and last week's 31-3 loss at Minnesota might have represented rock-bottom. I do expect the Wildcats to put up somewhat of a fight this week as they look to bounce back after scoring just 10 points combined in their last two games. Purdue has a knack for letting opponents hang around here in West Lafayette and Northwestern has won five consecutive trips here going all the way back to 2009. With that being said, this is a smash spot for the Boilermakers offense so rather than grab the points with the visitors, we'll go with the 'over' as this total continues to move in the wrong direction in my opinion. An injury to RB King Doerue seemingly opened the door for what might be a good one in Devin Mockobee. He has ran for 100+ yards in four of the last six games, reaching the end zone in five of the last six contests. Northwestern's defense has been cooked for 4.8 yards per rush this season. Of course, the Wildcats pass defense hasn't been much better, especially since losing CB Coco Azema to a season-ending injury in October. While Northwestern isn't likely to throw all over Purdue - not with its top two quarterbacks both questionable due to injuries suffered last week - I do think it can make considerable gains on the ground, where Purdue has sagged as the season has gone on, yielding 122, 179, 184 and 102 rushing yards over the last four games. As I mentioned, the Boilers give up their share of points here at home, where they've allowed 35, 0, 26, 37 and 24 points in five contests this season. The outlier came in a Week 2 matchup with FCS squad Indiana State. Take the over (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up as a low-scoring affair between the down-trodden Hokies and upstart Flames on Saturday afternoon. Virginia Tech won two of its first three games this season but has gone winless in seven games since. While you might not know it by last week's 24-7 loss to Duke, I don't think the Hokies have quit on the season. This is still a talented defensive team at the very least and one that can relish the role of spoiler in the final two games of the regular season. Note that for as bad as things have gone for the Hokies and for as little the offense has been able to produce and stay on the field, they've actually held their last four opponents to 20, 22, 28 and 24 points. There was a stretch in late-September and early-October where their defense got worn down but we have seen that unit regroup and play the way it can lately. Now it faces a Liberty offense that has kept rolling along despite missing a number of key contributors due to injuries, including its top two quarterbacks on the depth chart and standout RB Dae Dae Hunter. The 'next man up' philosophy on that side of the football certainly worked last week as the Flames scored 33 points, albeit in a losing effort against UConn. They will face a tougher defensive challenge here, and I would anticipate perhaps a more conservative, ball control type of offensive gameplan given QB Jonathan Bennett's turnover-prone nature so far. The Liberty defense suffered a letdown against the Huskies last week but that was to be expected after holding Arkansas to 19 points in a stunning upset win the week previous. Note that Liberty has still held three of its last four opponents to 20 points or less and should be able to contain a Hokies offense that scored a touchdown less than two minutes in against Duke last week but then never hit the scoresheet again. Take the under (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Mexico plus the points over San Diego State at 9:45 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this one sets up for underdog New Mexico as it looks to play spoiler against San Diego State on Friday. The Aztecs have saved their season with wins over UNLV and San Jose State over the last two weeks, giving them Bowl eligibility. I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown against a seemingly inferior squad here. New Mexico is a woeful 2-8 on the season and wasn't competitive in last Saturday's 31-3 loss to Air Force. The Lobos actually did well defensively to hold the Falcons to just 14 first half points but coming back on a team that can hog the time of possession like Air Force is extremely tough. San Diego State exploded for a 43-27 come-from-behind win over San Jose State last week. It seemed as if the Spartans thought it was going to be a cakewalk after two early touchdowns but the Aztecs took the ensuing kickoff (following the second TD) to the house to turn the tide. QB Jalen Mayden has been San Diego State's offense since taking over but this will be the Aztecs first road test since falling by a 32-28 score at Fresno State on October 29th. In a game that features an exceptionally low posted total, I believe grabbing the generous helping of points with the home underdog will be worth our while. Take New Mexico (10*).

My selection is on Tennessee first half plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

While all bets are off should the Packers fall behind early and enter true 'desperation mode' in the second half of this game, I believe the Titans are worthy of our support catching points in the game's first 30 minutes on Thursday. Note that Tennessee is 6-1 ATS against the first half line over its last seven games with the lone setback coming at home against Denver last Sunday. Even two weeks ago, without QB Ryan Tannehill in a primetime game in Kansas City we saw the Titans carry a 14-9 lead into halftime. In fact, they've led at halftime in each of their last four road games, with the lone exception this season being a disastrous Week 1 affair in Buffalo. Nothing has come easy for the Packers this season and I'm not anticipating anything different on Thursday. Green Bay did cash for first half bettors last Sunday against Dallas, but only went into the break tied (it was a rare home underdog in that contest). You would have to go back four games overall, not to mention four games here at home, to find the last time the Packers led a game at halftime. There's certainly a path for the Titans to control proceedings early with RB Derrick Henry in a monster bounce-back spot after getting held in check by the Broncos last Sunday. Green Bay checks in allowing north of 5.0 yards per rush this season and is severely banged-up on the defensive side of the football right now. Take Tennessee first half (8*).

My selection is on Tulane minus the points over SMU at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Year in, year out, bettors flock to the SMU Mustangs thanks to their high-flying offense. Fresh off three consecutive SU wins and four in a row ATS that's not likely to change as the Mustangs stay on the road for a second game in six days, facing upstart Tulane on Thursday. The Green Wave are 8-2 on the campaign but enter this game off a 38-31 loss as a short favorite at home against Central Florida on Saturday. There was really no shame in that defeat as the Knights are a terrific team, arguably better than the SMU squad they'll face on Thursday. While the difference between the two offenses in this game is negligible in my opinion, I believe Tulane is the far better defensive team. After giving up 38 points in Saturday's loss the Green Wave will obviously be in a less-than-forgiving mood on Thursday, hungry to end a seven-game losing streak in this series. I'll lay the short number with the home side. Take Tulane (8*).

My selection is on Ball State plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

Ohio is rolling right now, winning five consecutive games SU and six in a row ATS. The Bobcats offense has been outstanding, but I'm willing to back the better defense in a home underdog role, not to mention the fact that Ball State can become Bowl eligible with a victory (the Cardinals will wrap up the regular season with a road game against Miami-Ohio). Ball State not surprisingly suffered a letdown last week at Toledo after winning outright in an underdog role at Kent State the week previous. As I mentioned, the Cardinals can play some defense, allowing 4.2 yards per rush and 6.3 yards per pass attempt this season. In stark contrast, Ohio has yielded 4.4 yards per rush (with that number rising to 5.0 on the road) and 8.4 yards per pass play. There's a path for the Cardinals to effectively shorten this game and keep the red hot Ohio offense off the field as Ball State boasts one of the best running backs in the MAC this season in Carson Steele. He's gotten better as the season has gone on, rushing for a whopping 390 yards while delivering four touchdowns in the last two games alone. The only two occasions where Steele didn't rush for over 100 yards this season came in a blowout loss at Tennessee (in which he had only 11 rush attempts) and a 44-38 win over Northern Illinois in which he found the end zone three times. Here, we'll note that Ohio is a woeful 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games after consecutive double-digit wins in-conference, as is the case here. Take Ball State (8*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

One thing we know when it comes to the Commanders (or the Football Team as I still prefer to call them) is they love to play for their quarterback Taylor Heinecke. The same goes for head coach Ron Rivera - the very definition of a 'player's coach'. While it's been another trying season in Washington, winning only four of nine games to date, this team continues to play competitive football, going 2-0-1 ATS since Heinecke took over for an ineffective Carson Wentz. The first matchup between these two teams was no contest as the Eagles rolled to a 24-8 victory in Washington. I did like the way the Commanders defense played in that contest, however, and really all season long, only allowing more than 25 points on one occasion. You would have to go back six games to find the last time they gave up more than 21 points. Needless to say that's worth noting given the lofty pointspread here. Philadelphia is in danger of coming out a little sleepy here in my opinion, still undefeated on the season and having not played since a week ago Thursday, when it was never really challenged in a 29-17 win in Houston. Note that the Eagles took last year's meeting between these two teams here in Philadelphia by 'only' 10 points. I say 'only' because Washington couldn't have played much worse in that game, gaining only 63 rushing yards on 21 attempts while completing 20-of-31 passes for 174 yards. The Eagles racked up 238 rushing yards and 281 passing yards in that contest. Again, they won by only 10 points. I'm confident the revenge-minded Commanders can close the gap in many regards on Monday and ultimately give the Eagles a bit of a scare at the very least. Only twice in the last three seasons have we seen the Eagles come off five or six ATS wins in their last seven games and on both occasions they failed to cover the spread in their next game. That's the situation here and I look for the Commanders to stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take Washington (10*).

SNF Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

While the Chargers inexplicably enter this game with the superior overall record to that of the 49ers, I don't believe they're the better team, at least not given all of the injury blows they've been dealt. The Niners have had their share of key injuries as well but their depth has shone through and they're off their bye week on Sunday, set up in a smash spot offensively. I say this is a smash spot because the Chargers have been horrid against the run, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush. Needless to say, the Niners can run the football as well as any team in the league, especially with RB Christian McCaffrey even more acclimated with the offense off the bye. I'm also convinced the Niners can get creative with their passing attack in this matchup as well. We've seen the Chargers frustratingly stray away at times from their best all-around offensive player, RB Austin Ekeler, at least in terms of their ground attack. Playing from behind doesn't suit this team particularly well missing its top two receiving threats in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Even against an injury-plagued Falcons defense last Sunday, the Chargers were only able to muster 20 points on 245 passing yards (those came on 43 pass attempts). Take San Francisco (10*).

SNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

I believe this sets up as a smash spot for the 49ers offense against a Chargers defense that has been plagued by a number of key injuries and absolutely shredded by opposing ground attacks, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush this season. Coming off their bye week and with all of their weapons healthy, including all-world o-lineman Trent Williams, the potential is there for Kyle Shanahan's offense to go off in this spot. I'll play the first half 'over' only as I do think there's a good chance the game becomes lopsided, in which case the Chargers would likely stray away from their effective ground game with RB Austin Ekeler while the 49ers could elect to take the air out of the football. The Niners opened the season with their first four games totalling just 20, 10, 20 and 20 first half points. Since then, their last three contests have reached 35, 27 and 24 points in the first half. Relatively high-scoring first halves have been commonplace for the Chargers this season as their games have reached 17, 23, 34, 38, 23, 38 and 24 points in the first 30 minutes. We can't ignore the Niners defensive injuries, which are numerous, opening the door for the Chargers to at least scheme up positive plays early in this contest. Again, my concern is that the visitors get forced to move away from a more balanced attack as the game progresses, noting that they're without their two top receivers in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Take the first half over (10*).

My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Indianapolis at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not sure that any team has more pent up frustration than the Raiders entering this week's 'get right' matchup with the spiralling Colts at Allegiant Stadium. Las Vegas blew another game in Jacksonville last Sunday, jumping ahead early before going stagnant offensively in the second half in an eventual 27-20 loss. The good news is, this week's opponent is far worse off, as hard as that is to believe. The Colts named Jeff Saturday head coach in a move straight out of left field earlier in the week. While some will buy into Saturday's 'ra-ra, can-do' attitude, I'm not buying it. The talent isn't there on either side of the football but particularly on offense with Sam Ehlinger starting in place of an ineffective Matt Ryan. Ehlinger couldn't have been any worse in last week's road loss against the Patriots. While RB Jonathan Taylor is back this week, there's nothing special about his matchup as the Raiders are capable of containing opposing running backs. Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels likely isn't long for the job - called out yet again after last week's seemingly clueless play-calling against the Jaguars. With that being said, I do think the Raiders rise to the occasion as a team, knowing that they won't be back home again until December 4th. The potential is still there with this team, as we saw in an earlier three-game stretch that saw them win and cover at home against the Broncos and Texans and nearly upset the Chiefs (in a one-point loss) on Monday Night Football in Kansas City. Take Las Vegas (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Texans aren't shying away from handing rookie RB Dameon Pierce a heavy workload as the centerpiece of their offense and that should pay dividends against a Giants defense that has given up a whopping 5.4 yards per rush this season. Houston's offense also gets back underrated WR Nico Collins for this one while it remains to be seen whether Brandin Cooks will return to the field or not. Regardless, I do think the Texans can make some headway, likely playing catch-up most of the day on Sunday. Speaking of bad run defenses, Houston has arguably been even worse than New York in that department. No team has given up more rushing yards or rushing touchdowns this season. That opens the door for another monster performance from Giants RB Saquon Barkley here. Of course, the Giants offense goes as Barkley goes and off their bye week I'm confident they'll get back on track here. Note that prior to losing 27-13 in Seattle last time out (we won with the Seahawks in that game), New York had scored 20+ points in four straight games. Even with a limited passing game, there's reason to believe Daniel Jones can have a one-off breakout performance against a Texans pass defense that has been flamed for 48-of-64 passing over their last three contests. Take the over (10*).

AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Browns seem like they're always good for one stunner of an upset road win each season and I think this could be it on Sunday in Miami. We successfully faded the Dolphins last Sunday as they won but didn't cover against the Bears in Chicago. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well again as I feel the Browns match up well in a number of areas. There's still time for a bit of a quarterback controversy in Cleveland in advance of Deshaun Watson's impending return to the field in Week 13. I haven't always been high on QB Jacoby Brissett but he did win me over when he last took the field with the Browns in their impressive Monday night win over division-rival Cincinnati two weeks ago. The bye week helped Cleveland get healthier with RG Wyatt Teller among those returning for this week's game - giving a boost to an already terrific Browns ground attack. On the defensive side of the football, Cleveland is expected to have CB Denzel Ward back. While the Browns don't have anyone capable of neutralizing Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, even if he does go off (again) there's no guarantee Miami can score enough, or make enough stops on defense to secure the cover. The Miami defense continues to play on without three key pass stoppers in corners Byron Jones and Nik Needham and safety Brandon Jones. Xavien Howard has been able to stay in the lineup but he's dealt with injuries to both groins all season long. Here, we'll note that Miami is a woeful 6-21 ATS in its last 27 home games coming off a win by three points or less, outscored by 4.4 points on average in that situation. Take Cleveland (10*).

Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose State and San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

I can't help but feel San Diego State's 32-28 loss to Fresno State two games back served as a 'watershed moment' for the team. The Aztecs leaned heavily on their defense last Saturday, prevailing by a 14-10 score over UNLV (we won with Rebels ATS in that game). With a severely disjointed offense, San Diego State will likely need to continue to ride its defense hard down the stretch and I think it's catching San Jose State at the right time here, as the Spartans are likely in for a letdown after scoring 35 and 28 points over their last two games. San Jose State can play some defense as well. The Spartans have incredibly held six of eight opponents to 17 or fewer points this season. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in six of their eight contests. Noting that last year's meeting between these two teams produced a grand total of just 32 points, I'm comfortable playing the 'under' again here, even as we work with a relatively low number. Take the under (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over California at 9 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for Oregon State as it returns to Corvallis with an extra day of preparation time following last Friday's tough 24-21 loss at Washington. We won with the 'under' in that narrow defeat at the hands of the Huskies in Seattle but won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Beavers here. California checks in off a spirited 41-35 loss at rival USC. The Bears were obviously up for that showdown, turning in one of their best performances of the season, albeit in a losing effort. I question whether Cal gets back up to the same level for this one, noting that it enters on the heels of five straight losses, with its season effectively circling the drain with slim hopes of gaining Bowl eligibility (it needs to win its final three games). Note that Cal is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS victory while Oregon State has reeled off 10 consecutive ATS victories here at home. Take Oregon State (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Oregon at 7 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the 'over' in Oregon's most recent home game - a 45-30 win over UCLA three weeks ago. Since then, we've seen the Ducks defense get tuned up in lopsided wins over California and Colorado. While Washington will offer a much tougher challenge, I'm confident the Ducks 'D' will be up for it on Saturday. It's a similar story with the Washington defense as it has seemingly been getting stronger as the season has gone on. Last week, we won with the 'under' in the Huskies narrow 24-21 home win over Oregon State. It has had an extra day to prepare for Oregon with that most recent contest being played on a Friday night. You would have to go back seven meetings in this series to find the last time the Ducks hung 40+ points on the Huskies and as electric as this Oregon offense has been, I don't see that happening here either. We like to play Washington 'overs' in games where it is likely to jump out to a sizable lead, as that tends to be when the Huskies defense sags. In what has the potential to be a relatively competitive affair all the way on Saturday, I'll go the other way and back the 'under'. Take the under (8*).

SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Florida at 4 pm et on Saturday.

South Carolina's offense got off to a roaring start this season, scoring 30+ points in four of its first five games. That had a lot to do with a very manageable non-conference schedule, however. Since then, the Gamecocks have put up 24, 30, 10 and 38 points with the latter performance coming against one of the worst defensive teams in the country in Vanderbilt last Saturday. Florida's defense has been ripped by the likes of Tennessee and Georgia but there's no shame in that. Outside of those two poor performances, the Gators 'D' has held up reasonably well and I'm confident it can stand up against what I still consider to be a fading Gamecocks offense (note that South Carolina gained four extra possessions thanks to turnovers last week and still scored 'only' 38 points against an awful Vandy defense). Florida is coming off a 41-point outburst in a win over Texas A&M last week but I don't think this is an offense built to deliver those type of point explosions on a regular basis. Note that the Gators have been held to 18 or fewer pass completions in five consecutive games, despite trailing most of the way in two of those contests. While the 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series, those games topped out at 66 points so not all that much higher than the number we're dealing with here. Also note that only three of those five contests surpassed Saturday's total (at the time of writing). Take the under (10*).

Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Purdue plus the points over Illinois at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We missed with the 'over' in Purdue's ugly home loss against Iowa last Saturday as the Boilermakers couldn't get anything going offensively in an eventual 24-3 loss. Plenty of bettors got burned with Purdue as a home favorite in that spot and will want no part of the Boilers as they hit the road to face Illinois here. That's precisely what makes Purdue so attractive as we catch a generous helping of points in a stadium where the Boilers haven't lost since way back in 2010. Illinois is in bounce-back mode as well following a stunning home loss against Michigan State last week. While there have been some dominant defensive performances along the way, I think there have also been some 'smoke and mirrors' involved in the Illini's impressive 7-2 start to the campaign. For Purdue, it's getting down to crunch time as it looks again to gain Bowl eligibility with that elusive sixth win following back-to-back losses against Wisconsin and Iowa, as mentioned. Note that Purdue checks in 21-8 ATS in its last 29 road games after losing three of its last four contests ATS, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Illinois is a woeful 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after winning five or six of its last seven games ATS, which is also the situation here. Take Purdue (10*).

My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Fresno State at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

Fresno State has won four straight meetings in this series - its longest winning streak all-time since the first matchup between these two squads back in 1996. I look for the Runnin' Rebels to give the Bulldogs all they can handle on Friday, however, as UNLV looks to make a final push toward a Bowl game. To earn Bowl eligibility, the Rebels need two wins in their final three games. While that looks manageable on paper, a win here would all but assure it of a spot with games against Hawaii and Nevada remaining. We won with the Rebels plus the points against San Diego State last Saturday. In that game, UNLV welcomed back its starting quarterback and running back and effectively shortened the game, leaning on its defense to stay competitive and ultimately earn the cover (which I realize meant nothing to the players in the grand scheme of things). It was a solid effort that should provide some confidence as it tries to finally snap its four-game skid here against Fresno State. The Bulldogs got off to an awful start this season but have since reeled off four straight victories and need just one more win to become Bowl eligible. They scored 55 points in a rout of lowly Hawaii last week but that doesn't change the fact that it's been a struggle for the most part offensively, even with QB Jake Haener healthy, as he was last week. Keep in mind, just two games back they forced five turnovers against aforementioned San Diego State but still needed all of the offense they could muster in a 32-28 win. The fact that they allowed 28 points against a punchless, dare I say broken Aztecs offense was telling. Here, we'll note that Fresno State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 31+ points in consecutive contests heading in. Meanwhile, UNLV is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when coming off a SU road loss but ATS cover, as is the case here. Take UNLV (8*).

Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and USC at 9:30 pm et on Friday.

After getting involved in three straight high-scoring shootouts - two resulting in victories - I can't help but feel the Trojans are looking to catch their breath in what should be a layup against lowly Colorado on Friday. USC needed all the offense it could get in posting wild wins over Arizona and California over the last two weeks. Here, it finally finds itself back in a 'name your score' type of contest against a Buffaloes squad licking its wounds off a 49-10 dismantling at the hands of Oregon last Saturday. Colorado has been held to 20 or fewer points in eight of nine games this season with the only outlier coming in a 42-34 loss to Arizona State two weeks ago - a game where the Buffaloes still mustered only 359 total yards of offense. While USC's offense has been rolling along, there has been an apparent ceiling with it topping out at 45 points over its last eight games (it did score 66 in its season-opener against Rice). I'm not convinced that will be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total as Colorado isn't likely to end many drives with 7's against a talented Trojans defense that should be in a foul mood after allowing 35 points against an oft-punchless Cal offense last Saturday. You would have to go back seven meetings in this series, all the way to 2014, to find the last time these two teams combined to put up more than 66 total points (which is the posted total at the time of writing). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 the last three times Colorado has come off consecutive losses against Pac-12 opponents in which it yielded 31+ points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 5-1 in USC's last six contests after gaining 450+ total yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on East Carolina plus the points over Cincinnati at 8 pm et on Friday.

Cincinnati has taken five straight meetings in this series and you would have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time East Carolina won a road game against the Bearcats. With that being said, I believe the Pirates have as good a shot at staging an upset as they have in years on Friday night as they look to pull even with the Bearcats at 7-3 overall. While Cincinnati was battling it out in a taxing 20-10 home win over Navy this past Saturday, East Carolina was home and cool on its bye week following three consecutive victories, culminating with a 27-24 road upset win over BYU the Friday previous (we won with the 'under' in that game). While known for their offensive prowess, the Pirates can play some defense as well, as we saw down the stretch in that critical win over the Cougars in hostile territory. This isn't the same Cincinnati squad we've seen in years' past as there's no Desmond Ridder to lean on at quarterback and it has shown as the Bearcats have topped out at 29 points over their last four games, failing to reach 300 passing yards in any of their last five contests. That's fine if the running game is rolling but that's not the case with Cincinnati right now as it has gained just 95 yards on 37 rush attempts over the last two games. I like ECU's chances of orchestrating long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings on Friday. Note that the Pirates check in 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog while Cincinnati is a woeful 2-7 ATS in its last nine contests after committing one or less turnovers in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take East Carolina (8*).

AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

There was reason to be optimistic about Memphis' Bowl chances entering the 2022 campaign. The Tigers opened with a tough matchup on the road against Mississippi State but from there, reeled off four straight wins and certainly appeared to be in the driver's seat in the AAC. Since then, however, the Tigers haven't gotten any breaks on their way to four consecutive losses. I'm not ready to write off Memphis just yet. Of those four losses, only two came by more than two points and none by more than 10 points with the Tigers putting up 28+ points themselves in all four contests. They face an uphill battle needing two wins in their final three games to gain Bowl eligibility but there's certainly a path to get there. It has to start with a win over Tulsa on Thursday. This has been a fairly disastrous season for the Golden Hurricane, due in part to an injury to QB Davis Brin. Even if Brin is good to go for this game, there's no guarantee Tulsa will be able to put enough points on the board to stay in contention for four quarters. Last week's two-touchdown defeat at home against Tulane illustrated how the season has gone for Tulsa as it failed to reach the end zone until the final minute of the first half - after the Green Wave had already jumped ahead 17-3. It never found the end zone again after that late first half score. Keep in mind, this is a Golden Hurricane squad that at one point gave up four touchdown drives in a 14-minute stretch against Navy and it's methodical triple-option attack earlier this season. They'll certainly have their hands full with Memphis' offense which is led by a baller in QB Seth Henigan. Tulsa has a good one in WR Keylon Stokes but I expect Memphis to give him plenty of attention in this one. Note that the Golden Hurricane will be trying to win consecutive meetings in this series for the first time since reeling off four straight wins over Memphis from 2005 to 2010. The two teams have met seven times since then with Memphis going 2-0 SU and ATS off a loss in this series over that stretch, with those two victories coming by scores of 40-20 and 41-14. Take Memphis (10*).

MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed with the 'under' in both of these teams' games last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Bulls and Chippewas match up on Wednesday. Buffalo turned the football over three times in its 45-24 road loss against Ohio last week. Interestingly, the Bulls have forced a whopping eight turnovers over their last two games yet still scored 'only' 58 points combined in those contests. You would have figured all of those extra possessions would lead to more of a points explosion. Here, they'll be facing a Central Michigan squad that will be ultra-focused on taking care of the football after turning it over a whopping eight times itself over its last two games. It's also interesting to note that despite the Chips giving their last two opponents all of those extra possessions they 'only' gave up 56 points over those two games. Both teams want to run the football. Note that Buffalo hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since back on September 10th against FCS squad Holy Cross. Meanwhile, Central Michigan hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since Week 1 against Oklahoma State when it was in comeback mode for most of the game and racked up 424 yards through the air. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 in Buffalo's last 12 games when playing on the road after a road loss against a MAC opponent, resulting in an average total of just 50.1 points in that situation. The 'under' is also 4-2 in the Bulls last six games after their previous two contests totalled 60+ points. CMU has seen the 'under' cash four of the last times it has come off a game where it lost the turnover battle by at least two. Take the under (10*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

I like the way this spot sets up for the Redhawks as they come off their bye week knowing they need two victories in their final three games to earn Bowl eligibility. Anything other than a Bowl appearance would be a disappointment after they not only reached one but defeated North Texas in that contest last December. Miami-Ohio's offense hasn't put up the same numbers it did a year ago although it's worth noting that unit didn't really get rolling until November. Ohio has reeled off four straight victories, making it six on the season so it has already gained Bowl eligibility. I didn't come away overly impressed despite the lopsided nature of its 45-24 win over Buffalo last week. The Bulls offered very little defensive resistance in that game but I expect Miami-Ohio to provide a much more difficult challenge in that regard here. I mentioned that the Redhawks offense didn't really get rolling until November last season. That's been par for the course as Miami-Ohio checks in 77-51 ATS in its last 128 games played in the second half of the season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.5 points along the way. Here, the Redhawks will be playing with revenge after dropping a tough 35-33 decision on the road against Ohio last year. They were actually shut out in the entire first half in that game and couldn't find any semblance of a ground game, but still hung in there and lost by 'only' two points. Note that the underdog has cashed in each of the last three meetings in this series (last year Ohio was a +7 home underdog). Here, we'll also note that the Bobcats are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite while Miami-Ohio checks in a profitable 5-3 ATS in its last eight games after losing two of its last three contests ATS, as is the case here. Take Miami-Ohio (10*).

MNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half ‘under’ between Baltimore and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

With both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense and both confident off wins last week, not looking to relinquish the momentum here, I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring first half on Monday night in New Orleans. Note that the first half ‘under’ is a perfect 6-0 with Baltimore coming off three ATS losses in its last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average first half total of just 13.3 points. Meanwhile, the first half ‘under’ is 11-3 with the Saints listed as an underdog over the last two seasons, which is also the situation here, leading to an average first half total of 19.9 points in that spot. Without Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman - their two biggest offensive threats apart from Lamar Jackson - I look for the Ravens to take a more methodical approach on offense, at least early in this game. Meanwhile, the Saints will be wary of QB Andy Dalton's tendency to turn the ball over (remembering that ugly Thursday night loss in Arizona two games back) against an opportunistic Ravens defense. I'm confident we'll see the Saints offense run through RB Alvin Kamara for the most part on Monday, noting that the Ravens have yielded 4.4 yards per rush this season. New Orleans best chance at winning this game likely comes from churning out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten the game and give Jackson as few opportunities as possible to make an impact. Take the first half ‘under’ (10*).

NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Not to oversimplify things but I don't think the Cardinals are a very good football team. Meanwhile, Seattle remains as underrated a team as you'll find in the NFL, even off last week's impressive win over the Giants. The Seahawks have already handled the Cardinals once and while Arizona now has WR DeAndre Hopkins at its disposal, I'm not convinced his presence is enough to turn the tide in this rematch. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker has been a massive get for the Seahawks with the injury to Rashaad Penny proving to be a blessing in disguise. That's not to mention the departure of Russell Wilson which has given Geno Smith a run at redemption and he's taken full advantage. Plus we have a Seattle defense that is seemingly getting stronger with each passing week. Take Seattle (10*).

NFC Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the 'over' in the Lions home loss to the Dolphins last week and were fortunate to do so as Detroit's offense was non-existent for the entire second half. Here, both teams know exactly what to expect from their opponent in this divisional showdown. The Packers defense has been putting the clamps on opposing passing games but has proven vulnerable against the run. Detroit quite simply hasn't shown any tendency to stick with the run, abandoning it on a weekly basis, albeit somewhat game script dependent. Detroit's defense didn't have any answers for the Dolphins multi-pronged offensive attack last week but catch a break here, facing a depleted Packers offense that hasn't been able to get it going for any sustained periods this season. Last year's two matchups in this series were of the high-scoring variety. I think we see a different story here. Take the under (10*).

Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I can't help but feel bettors are overreacting to the Bears dealing Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith away prior to the trade deadline. I think Chicago's ugly 12-7 home loss to Washington three games back was something of a watershed moment for the team. Since then, they've put up 62 points in splitting a pair of games against New England and Dallas. They made a move to acquire WR Chase Claypool at the trade deadline and while he's unlikely to make an immediate impact here, I do think the Bears offense can feast on a still-undermanned Dolphins secondary. Too many points for the home side here. Take Chicago (10*).

Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between California and USC at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

After getting involved in consecutive track meets on the road against Utah and Arizona, I look for USC to 'manage' this very winnable matchup with Cal on Saturday. The Golden Bears are mired in another trying campaign having lost four in row entering Saturday's matchup. They've had only two breakout performances offensively, one of those coming against FCS squad Cal-Davis and the other against the aforementioned Arizona Wildcats, who boast one of the worst defenses in the FBS. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 39-21 in Cal's last 60 road games following an 'over' result, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 52.9 points in that spot. The 'under' is also 28-14 in USC's last 42 contests after scoring 37+ points in consecutive games, which is also the situation here, resulting in 54.9 total points on average. Take the under (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Diego State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

San Diego State has been fairly high on my fade list this season and I see this as another fine opportunity to do so as the Aztecs face UNLV on Saturday. The Runnin' Rebels are licking their wounds on the heels of three straight losses following a 4-1 start to the campaign. Injuries have had something to do with their slide but the guys that are healthy need to start showing up and I'm confident they will off the bye week. If ever there was a perfect example of how far the Aztecs have fallen it wast last week's fall-from-ahead loss against Fresno State. San Diego State teams of the past would have had no trouble putting that game away with a 28-10 late in the third quarter. But this year's Aztecs squad can't run the football and control the clock the way previous editions have been able to. It seems that the more QB Jalen Mayden is asked to do the more trouble he gets into. With that being said, Virginia Tech transfer Braxton Burmeister certainly wasn't the answer under center either. All told, this is a San Diego State team that struggles to do the little things well, including playing fundamentally-sound defense and I expect the Rebels to take advantage here, even with QB Doug Brumfield still sidelined with a concussion. Keep in mind, Cam Friel was last year's top passer for the team while Harrison Bailey is a Tennessee transfer that most thought would be the starter this year heading into the season. With an extra week of practice I do think we'll see a sharper performance from the UNLV offense here. Take UNLV (10*).

My selection is on Louisiana plus the points over Troy at 5 pm et on Saturday.

Troy enters this game on the heels of five straight victories but I look for the Trojans to get tripped up on Saturday afternoon. We missed with Louisiana last week as the Ragin' Cajuns got off to a dreadful start on the road against Southern Miss and could never recover, even though they did put up a fight in the second half, ultimately closing the gap (to a certain extent) late. When we last saw Louisiana here at home it routed Arkansas State by a 38-18 score two games back. That marked the team's third straight ATS victory. Troy has an incredible defense but its offense leaves a lot to be desired. The Trojans have manhandled opposing ground attacks but the Ragin' Cajuns have been rolling the ball downhill in that regard, running for 174, 109, 206 and 103 yards over their last four games, with the two higher totals coming here at home. Here, we'll note that Troy is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine games following a win in conference play. Louisiana has cashed ATS each of the last three times it has come off a loss in-conference, which is the situation here. Take Louisiana (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Indiana at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with the 'under' in heart-breaking fashion in Penn State's eventual lopsided defeat at the hands of Ohio State last Saturday. After a low-scoring first three quarters, things went off the rails in the final frame. It happens. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play. It is noteworthy that Penn State allowed just one Ohio State touchdown until over midway through the fourth quarter in last week's contest. It wasn't until the Nittany Lions were forced to abandon their running game in comeback mode late that mistakes started happening and the Buckeyes capitalized. I do still feel that Penn State has an elite defense. Even in a rout at the hands of Michigan three games back, the Nittany Lions gave up just one touchdown in the entire first half. Offensively, Penn State has a bit of a 'feast-or-famine' nature. This is a tougher matchup than it might appear on paper against the 3-5 Hoosiers. Indiana recently held Michigan to just two touchdowns in the game's first 50 minutes and its defense certainly wasn't to blame in last week's loss at Rutgers as it gave up just two offensive touchdowns and only three offensive scores in total (the Scarlet Knights added an interception returned for a touchdown) in a 24-17 defeat. Offensively, the Hoosiers could only muster one offensive touchdown in that entire game with their other notable score coming on a game-opening kick return touchdown. This is a big game for both teams, albeit for different reasons and noting that last year's matchup totalled only 24 points in a Penn State shutout victory, we'll back the 'under' here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Texas Tech and TCU at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I don't have a lot of faith in either of these defenses. Texas Tech's offense took a breather last week against Baylor, putting up only 17 points in a 28-point rout. Perhaps the Red Raiders can be excused for that poor performance after they had scored 37, 28, 31 and 48 points over their previous four games. I certainly expect them to light up a TCU defense that has had little to do with the team's perfect 8-0 start. The Horned Frogs have given up fewer than 28 points only twice all season, first in their season-opener against FCS squad Tarleton State (in a game that totalled 76 points) and then in a blowout victory over Oklahoma (that game reached 79 total points). Save for a rout of West Virginia, Texas Tech's defense has been sieve-like this season, most recently allowing three touchdowns in one eight-minute stretch against Baylor last week, at home no less. These two teams got into the 80's in last year's meeting. Expect another shootout on Saturday. Take the over (8*).

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Iowa opened the season with four 'under' results in its first five games but that changed in a 54-10 rout at Ohio State two weeks ago. That was a bit of a back-breaker of a defeat and from there we saw the Hawkeyes essentially ease off the pressure valve and the result was a 33-point explosion in a 20-point win over Northwestern last week. Now Iowa goes back on the road to face Purdue, and I'm not anticipating the type of defensive slugfest the oddsmakers are projecting. Note that we've seen a strong home-road dichotomy in terms of high and low-scoring games involving the Boilermakers in recent years. That's continued to a certain extent this year. Note that the Boilers have baited the likes of Penn State and Nebraska into back-and-forth shootouts here at home with those two contests totalling 66 and 80 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-6 in Iowa's last 22 games after losing three of its last four games, resulting in an average total of 50.5 points. Meanwhile, the Boilers have seen their last six games go 'over' the total after winning four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 69.3 points in that spot. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon State and Washington at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

Oregon State has had to change things up a bit on offense due to a couple of key injuries to QB Chance Nolan and TE Luke Musgrave but the good news is, it has continued to pile up victories, reeling off three straight wins in Pac-12 play entering Friday's showdown with Washington. While we won with the 'over' in the Huskies victory over Arizona the last time it played on this field, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' in this key home matchup on Friday. I have a lot of respect for the Oregon State defense and I'm confident it can contain an explosive Huskies offense led by QB Michael Penix Jr. Washington wants to throw the football - that's no secret - but the Beavers boast one of the best and most underrated secondaries in the nation in my opinion. On the flip side, Oregon State has shifted to a more balanced attack in the absence of Nolan under center. Note that the Beavers have completed 17 or fewer passes in four of their last five contests. Washington's defense prides itself on its ability to snuff out opposing rushing attacks, yielding just 3.3 yards per rush this season. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a game went 'over' the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between UMass and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Friday.

The fact that this game actually means something might be one of the biggest surprises of the college football season. Yes, UConn can gain Bowl eligibility with two wins in its final three games this season and it has to start with a victory here against a very beatable UMass squad. While that may look like a cinch on paper, rarely has anything come easy for the Huskies football program in recent years. I fully expect UConn to 'play it smart' on Friday, leaning heavily on its ground attack in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives and effectively shorten this game in the hopes of dashing the Minutemen's upset hopes. UMass has just one victory this season but it's had nothing to do with poor defensive play. The Minutemen have a talented, experienced defense that is capable of snuffing out a one-dimensional Huskies offense. UConn has thrived off of turnovers, forcing 12 in its last four games alone, so you can be sure UMass's gameplan will involve taking care of the football while also relying heavily on its ground game to move the football. This is obviously a very low posted total but I'm confident it will seem unreasonably high by the time halftime rolls around in this one. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Duke at 7 pm et on Friday.

While Duke was celebrating an eight-turnover fuelled upset victory in Miami last Saturday, Boston College was lamenting another missed opportunity as it turned the football over five times in an upset loss at UConn - its first ever defeat at the hands of the Huskies. Here, I do look for the Eagles to show some pride and give the Blue Devils a fight. Note that grabbing the points has been a fruitful venture in this series, with the underdog cashing at a 4-1 ATS clip in five all-time meetings going back to 2006. That's not surprising given the low-scoring nature of this series with none of those contests totalling more than 39 points. Here, we're catching double-digits with the Eagles, noting that Duke is a woeful 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games after posting a win by 10+ points against a conference opponent in its previous contest, as is the case here. Regardless whether QB Phil Jurkovec can go for the Eagles (he's struggled this season anyway), we'll grab the generous helping of points with the home side here. Take Boston College (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Houston at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

This has all the earmarks of a game the undefeated Eagles will look to 'manage' on a short week against a very beatable opponent in Houston on Thursday. Philadelphia had been held under 30 points in five straight games before scoring 35 points in a rout of the Steelers last Sunday. While the Texans are just 1-5-1 this season, they do sport a better defense than that of Pittsburgh. That's particularly true against the pass, an area where I don't anticipate Houston getting overly exposed in this one. Instead, look for the Eagles to pound away and ultimately churn out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten this game playing on a short week. The Texans offense is seriously hamstrung with QB Davis Mills suffering from a sophomore slump. Rookie RB Dameon Pierce has been a bright spot and you can run on the Eagles, so there's reason to believe the Texans can move the football at times and ultimately do some clock-eating of their own in this one. As a two-touchdown underdog, it's in Houston's best interest to effectively shorten this game as well in order to keep the Eagles within arm's length for four quarters. It's worth noting that while the Eagles have yielded just shy of 5.0 yards per rush this season, they're now even worse off after losing nose tackle Jordan Davis to injury. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 38-19 the last 57 times the Eagles have come off a game in which they scored 35+ points. Take the under (8*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

No one is giving the Texans any sort of chance at springing the upset against the undefeated Eagles on Thursday night. While I'm not about to predict Houston will win this game outright, I do think it can keep within arm's reach for four quarters against Philadelphia. The Eagles had no trouble laying waste to the Steelers on Sunday. That was a far worse defensive team than they'll face on Thursday, however. The Texans actually have some semblance of a pass defense led by rookie corner Derek Stingley. For the Eagles to keep their undefeated record intact I think they'll need to involve their ground attack heavily, effectively shortening this game which plays into our hands with two touchdowns in our back pocket with the Texans. Houston looked lifeless against Tennessee last Sunday as they were mercilessly run all over by RB Derrick Henry. The Eagles don't possess that type of bruising, relentless back. RB Miles Sanders will get his, but again, I'm not anticipating the same sort of beatdown on the Texans defensive front. Offensively, Houston has a workhorse to lean on in the form of RB Dameon Pierce and you can run on these Eagles as they've allowed just shy of 5.0 yards per rush and just lost key run-stopper, nose tackle Jordan Davis to an ankle injury. Like the Eagles, I feel the Texans offensive gameplan will work to shorten this game with several long, clock-churning drives. Note that the Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six contests after winning consecutive games ATS. Meanwhile, the Texans have been listed as underdogs of between 10.5 and 14 points just twice over the last three seasons, covering the number on both of those occasions. Take Houston (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Northern Illinois at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Central Michigan's offense has been fairly stagnant since opening the season with a wild 58-44 loss at Oklahoma State. The Chippewas enter with just two victories on the campaign. Last time out, CMU was held out of the end zone until nearly two minutes into the third quarter against Bowling Green. The week previous it could only muster three offensive scores in a 28-21 win over lowly 1-8 Akron (the other score came on a defensive fumble return for a touchdown). The good news is, outside of one bad quarter against Toledo, the Chips have held up reasonably well defensively in MAC play. They draw a favorable matchup against Northern Illinois here. The Huskies also own just two wins on the season. In their most recent game they didn't reach the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter against Ohio - their only touchdown of the game. Prior to that they did deliver a 39-10 win over Eastern Michigan. Interestingly, that game opened with an early pick-six in favor of the Huskies but from there they scored a touchdown with just over four minutes remaining in the first quarter but then didn't find the end zone again until the final minute of the third quarter. You get the picture. Both teams are capable of stepping up defensively but also fully capable of going stagnant for extended stretches on offense. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Western Michigan and Bowling Green at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

The Western Michigan Broncos have had a disappointing season by all accounts, checking in with just three wins through eight games. They have a bit of a quarterback competition on their hands, which is to say no one has really been able to step up and take the reins, even though Jack Salopek was the starter prior to suffering a knee injury two games back. Last time out, the Broncos scored just one touchdown in a 16-10 win over Miami-Ohio, not reaching the end zone until more than midway through the third quarter. Two games back they scored two first half touchdowns but then were shut out over the game's final 31 minutes against a beatable Ohio defense. Bowling Green rolled to a 34-18 win over Central Michigan in its most recent contest. The Falcons did score just three offensive touchdowns in that victory with the other coming on a defensive fumble return for a touchdown. Prior to that there was a two-game stretch where Bowling Green managed just one touchdown against Buffalo (that came in the final six minutes when the outcome had long been decided) and two touchdowns in a narrow 17-13 win over Miami-Ohio, not reaching the end zone until just over seven minutes were left in the second quarter in that contest. I'm not anticipating a ton of offensive fireworks in this key MAC showdown. Take the under (8*).

MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

While Buffalo is coming off an 'over' result, both of these teams are trending to the 'under' lately. The Bulls have seen three of their last four games stay 'under' the total and the same goes for Ohio. The only game that went 'over' the total during that stretch for the Bobcats came against the lowly Akron Zips in a contest where Ohio jumped ahead big early and eased off the gas defensively in a wild 55-34 win. Since then, the Bobcats have seen their last two games total just 47 and 41 points. Both teams want their offense to run through their ground attack. I do think both can find some success in that regard but that likely leads to plenty of long, clock-churning drives. Note that Buffalo has done an excellent job of stamping out opposing passing games, yielding more than 21 completions only twice while having yet to allow an opponent throw for 300+ yards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-6 the last 25 times Ohio has come off three straight wins in conference play with that spot producing an average total of only 45.9 points. The 'under' has gone 8-5 the last 13 times the Bulls have come off a game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

High-scoring games have been the norm in this series in recent years but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday night in Cleveland. The Browns offense has cooled off considerably following a hot start to the season. After scoring 26, 30 and 29 points in their first three games, they've put up just 20, 28, 15 and 20 points over their last four. Now they face a Bengals defense that I believe is far better than most give it credit for. The Cincinnati offense gets all of the hype with Joe Burrow and Ja'marr Chase going off on a weekly basis (Chase will of course miss this game - more on that in a moment). However, the defense has been outstanding, holding five of seven opponents to 20 points or less this season. Opposing passing games have been completely stymied and it's tough to envision Browns QB Jacob Brissett changing that trend, especially with underrated TE David Njoku slated to miss. Cleveland has topped out at 258 passing yards in a game this season. You know what you're going to get from the Browns as they look to run their offense through RB Nick Chubb (and Kareem Hunt). Theoretically, Cleveland is in line to feast with the Bengals missing key run stoppers D.J. Reader and Josh Tupou. However, rookie Zach Carter and Jay Tufele have stepped up in their absence. I mentioned that Cincinnati will be without WR Ja'marr Chase for this one. His absence can't be understated in my opinion. Yes, the Bengals are saying all of the right things with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, not to mention TE Hayden Hurst capable of picking up some of the slack. But you just don't replace a guy like Chase. With CB Denzel Ward among those sidelined for the Browns, this is a major break facing the Bengals without their top weapon in the passing game. I really think the Cincinnati offense will flow through RB Joe Mixon in this game as the Browns have proven vulnerable against the run. With that being said, I can't help but feel we'll see plenty of long, clock-churning drives from both offenses. Note that the 'under' is 12-3 in the Bengals last 15 road games and a perfect 10-0 in Cincinnati's last 10 games after being held to fewer than 100 rushing yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. The 'under' is a long-term 48-25 with the Browns playing at home off consecutive losses and 13-4 when playing at home after losing the turnover battle in three straight games. Those angles make sense when you consider the Bengals will likely look to get their ground game going again, most notably Mixon while the Browns do everything they can to take care of the football, perhaps at the expense of aggressiveness in the passing game. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Tough spot for the Giants here as they stay on the road for a second straight week and travel across the country to face the upstart Seahawks. I expect this to be a Kenneth Walker game for the Seahawks as he faces a Giants run defense (I use that term loosely) that has been torched for north of 5.7 yards per rush this season. It sounds like Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf will be good to go after suffering a knee injury last Sunday. While Tyler Lockett missed practice during the week, all indications are that he'll play and start as well. He didn't look any worse for wear in last week's rout of the Chargers. Defensively, Seattle remains a bottom-tier unit albeit with some improvement in recent weeks. Regardless, the presence of Daniel Jones always tends to keep a cap on the G-Men offense, even with RB Saquon Barkley running as well as he has at any point in his career. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We'll back the Patriots as they look to bounce back following an embarrassing home loss against the lowly Bears on Monday Night Football. What better opponent to get right back up for than the division rival Jets on Sunday. New York is coming off a big win in Denver last Sunday. Keep in mind, the Broncos were undermanned in that game, starting career backup QB Brett Rypien. The Jets struggled to move the football outside of a big run from now-injured rookie RB Breece Hall on a Broncos defense breakdown. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Patriots play fundamentally sound defense while not putting too much in the lap of QB Mac Jones (or Bailey Zappe should he take over at some point). Note that the Pats are an impressive 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games when coming off an outright double-digit loss as a favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 6.8 points on average in that situation. Take New England (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a potential shootout inside the friendly confines of Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday. We inexplicably missed with the 'over' in Miami's strange 16-10 win over the Steelers last Sunday night (that contest featured a scoreless second half). The Dolphins jumped ahead early and then eased off the gas against a subpar Steelers squad - something I don't think they can afford to do against the Lions on Sunday. We were also on the 'under' in Detroit's rather uneventful loss in Dallas. I saw a lot of support for the 'over' in that contest last Sunday but I think those 'over' bettors were a week too early as Detroit was still nursing some key contributors back to health (and also lost Aman-Ra St. Brown to concussion protocols early in the game). St. Brown is expected back this week and should pace the Lions in what sets up as a dream matchup against a depleted Dolphins secondary. Detroit has been starved for an offensive breakout over the last two games - scoring a grand total of six points against the Patriots and Cowboys. This looks like an ideal spot for QB Jared Goff and the offense to bounce back with Miami missing Byron Jones, Nik Needham and now strong safety Brandon Jones as well after he tore his ACL. The Fins makeshift secondary did hold up alright against the Steelers, although Pittsburgh wasn't all that aggressive in that game. I expect a different story to unfold here as a banged-up Xavien Howard (he's been dealing with groin/quad injuries all season long) is left on an island against a loaded Lions offense. On the flip side, there's little reason to believe that Detroit's woeful defense can hold up well for a second straight game. We certainly saw flashes of brilliance from the Miami offense in last Sunday's win over the Steelers. QB Tua Tagovailoa looked no worse for wear after suffering multiple concussions, deftly distributing the ball to his playmakers. The Lions have been getting roasted by the better offenses they've faced all season, most notably allowing 5.4 yards per rush attempt. With Miami likely to smash on the ground, that only serves to set up plenty of big plays through the air against a very beatable Lions secondary. I think there's a good chance we see this one go back-and-forth all afternoon long with neither defense able to string together many stops. Note that the 'over' is 7-3 in the Dolphins last 10 games following consecutive 'under' results, which is the situation here. Better still, the 'over' is 9-2 in the Lions last 11 games when priced as a home underdog of a touchdown or less. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I see this as a smash spot for the Lions, particularly on offense, as they check in starved for a positive outcome following four consecutive losses including back-to-back road losses against the Patriots and Cowboys in which they scored a grand total of six points. Something has to give in this matchup as the Dolphins enter riding an 0-4 ATS skid while the Lions have dropped the cash in three consecutive games. The Fins will be out of their element playing in a domed environment, noting that they'll be looking forward to flipping the calendar page having gone a miserable 0-8 ATS in their last eight October games. There were certainly a lot of positives for Miami to take away from last Sunday night's 16-10 victory over the Steelers. However, I didn't like the way their offense stagnated and I did feel their secondary and defense as a whole looked vulnerable, missing a number of key parts and suffering yet another injury blow with strong safety Brandon Jones tearing his ACL. Keep in mind, this was already a defense that was without Xavien Howard's running mate, Byron Jones and slot corner Nik Needham. Howard could be left on an island in this one and he's been dealing with nagging groin and quad injuries all season long (he missed practice to start the week once again). While the Lions did lose WR Aman-Ra St. Brown to concussion protocols in last week's game against Dallas, all indications are that he'll be good to go for this one as he didn't actually get diagnosed with a concussion (the league's new protocols dictated that he leave the game and not return). Speaking of returning players, Detroit should have RB De'Andre Swift back for the first time in a long time after he was a somewhat surprising scratch last week. The Lions wanted to give him one more week to recover but after he was a full participant in practice to start the week, he should be back on the field for Sunday's game. That's good news as the Dolphins have had a difficult time defending pass-catching running backs like Swift (and Jamaal Williams) this season. I see this as a breakout spot for a Lions offense that is starving for such an opportunity given the way they've lagged in recent games. Remember, this was one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL through the first month of the season. Here, we'll note that Detroit has gone an exceptional 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following consecutive losses by 14+ points, as is the case here. Take Detroit (10*).

Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers were written off by most following the trade of Christian McCaffrey, not to mention the firing of head coach Matt Rhule (I would actually consider that move to be addition by subtraction). Rather than hang their heads, the Panthers came out with something to prove last Sunday, routing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That victory came at home. Now they hit the road to face the upstart Falcons in Atlanta. I'm not convinced this matchup is quite as daunting as it may seem for the visitors. Carolina will be looking to secure a third straight win and cover here in Atlanta after outlasting the Falcons by a 19-13 score on the road last season. Atlanta is dealing with a cluster of injuries in its secondary and will sorely miss its two two corners in A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward in this one. Panthers QB P.J. Walker was given a vote of confidence from the team this week, named the starter despite Baker Mayfield apparently being healthy enough to return (he'll be in a backup role here). The run-first nature of the Falcons plays into the hands of the team catching points, eating up valuable clock most weeks. Last Sunday, Atlanta attempted just 13 passes despite game script leading you to believe it should be bombing away, trailing by a considerable margin all afternoon long in Cincinnati. I expect the Falcons to stick to the script here, even against a Panthers defense that has been relatively stout against the run, yielding just 3.5 yards per rush on the road this season. Carolina finally got its ground game going in last week's win and I expect some carry-over here, noting that Atlanta has been ripped for 5.4 yards per rush at home this season. Look for the Panthers to churn out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game - that gives them their best chance of securing a second straight victory in my opinion. Take Carolina (10*).