My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers have to be thrilled to be sitting at 2-1 with QB Jordan Love ready to return from injury on Sunday - an injury that was first thought to be far more long-term. I like the Vikings to keep their hot start going on Sunday as they catch the Packers in a letdown of sorts following last Sunday's blowout win in Tennessee. You can be sure the Vikes defense will get after Love and test his mobility in his first game back. I simply feel the Vikings are the more complete team and we're not catching a field goal with the news that Love will start. I'm not convinced the Pack aren't rushing Love back, realizing the importance of this early season divisional showdown. Look for a tightly-contested affair. Take Minnesota (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a game the Buccaneers have had circled on their calendar after dropping a 25-11 decision on Monday Night Football last season. The Eagles will be pleased to simply get out of this game without any additional injuries and a 2-2 record wouldn't be all bad all things considered. While Philadelphia RB Saquon Barkley has been the early season MVP, he'll be forced to shoulder too much of the load on Sunday with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith sidelined. The Eagles secondary doesn't match up particularly well against the Bucs receiving corps. After last week's stunning home loss to the Broncos, look for Tampa Bay to bounce back. Take Tampa Bay (8*).

Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Illinois and Penn State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Two top-25 ranked, undefeated Big Ten teams will do battle at Beaver Stadium on Saturday night and I expect points to come at a premium. Keep in mind, last year's meeting between these teams totalled just 43 points.

Illinois has already shown it can keep quality offenses in check this season. In fact, it held both Kansas and Nebraska scoreless when it mattered most, in the fourth quarter (and overtime last week at Nebraska). Penn State's offense poses a considerable challenge but I wouldn't be overly intimidated by last week's 56-point outburst as it came against one of the worst defenses in FBS in Kent State.

The Nittany Lions have played but one bad half of defensive football through three games, that coming against Bowling Green. Note that Penn State did right the ship at halftime in that game, holding the Falcons to just a field goal in the second half with that coming in the final minute of the fourth quarter.

Illinois got rolling offensively against Nebraska last Friday night but this is the same team that could only muster one offensive touchdown against a middle-of-the-road Kansas defense back in Week 2. I think goal number one will be moving the chains and effectively shortening proceedings as a sizable underdog in Happy Valley on Saturday. This isn't really a big play Illini offense, as evidenced by QB Luke Altmyer topping out at 242 passing yards in a game this season. Take the under (10*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Stanford plus the points over Clemson at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Clemson delivered a high-profile 59-35 win over N.C. State last Saturday in a game that wasn't even as competitive as that final score indicated. The Tigers jumped ahead 28-0 before the end of the first quarter and 52-7 early in the third quarter. The Wolfpack weren't even able to run their offensive competently in that game, clearly struggling in the absence of big-time transfer QB Grayson McCall.

I expect a much different story to unfold this Saturday at Memorial Stadium. Stanford comes into this game brimming with confidence following an upset win over Syracuse, on the road no less, in its ACC opener last week. The Cardinal have looked like a true upstart in the early going this season and I'm confident their methodical offense and capable defense will keep them in this game on Saturday.

The Clemson offense is in line for some regression after scoring a ridiculous 125 points over its last two games. Untested since a season-opening 34-3 drubbing at the hands of mighty Georgia, I look for the Tigers to get involved in a battle against one of the ACC's scrappiest newcomers. Note that the Cardinal defense ranks seventh in the country in yards per rush allowed this season. I'm not convinced the Tigers will be able to salt this game away, keeping in mid they allowed N.C. State to score four touchdowns in the game's final 22 minutes last Saturday. Take Stanford (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Duke at 4 pm et on Saturday.

We'll call for the Tar Heels defense to bounce back following last week's ridiculous home loss against James Madison (in which they allowed 70 points). Note that the 'under' is 15-7 in North Carolina's last 22 games following a home loss by 14 points or more. That includes a 9-4 mark when their next game came on the road, as is the case here. Duke has seen the 'under' go 17-7 in its last 24 games as a home favorite of seven points or less. The 'over' has cashed in each of the last two meetings in this series. That's notable as we haven't seen three straight 'over' results between these two rivals since the 1990's. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Kentucky at 12 noon et on Saturday.

A couple of strong performances in a losing effort against mighty Georgia and in a blowout victory over Ohio have perhaps given Kentucky bettors a false sense of confidence entering Saturday's difficult road tilt against Ole Miss.

It's easy to forget that the Wildcats were completely outclassed at home against South Carolina on September 7th. I don't think this Kentucky team is nearly as good as the one that only managed to go 7-6 overall and 3-5 in SEC play last year. The Wildcats avoided the Rebels on last year's schedule but won't be so fortune this season.

Ole Miss has yet to be challenged this season, reeling off four straight wins. A road game against Wake Forest was the only significant test and the Rebels passed that with flying colors, winning 40-6. With the schedule about to get a whole lot tougher with consecutive road games against South Carolina and LSU on deck, I look for Lane Kiffin's squad to make the most of the opportunity in front of it on Saturday. Take Ole Miss (8*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

This is a true 'get right' spot for Dallas on both sides of the football but on defense in particular. The Cowboys have been sieve-like on that side of the football over the last two weeks, getting lit up by the Saints and Ravens, at home no less. While the Giants are coming off their best offensive showing of the season, I don't like their prospects moving forward. New York has superstar-in-the-making WR Malik Nabers but not much else on offense. QB Daniel Jones is a turnover waiting to happen but was helped massively by game script, playing ahead most of the way against Cleveland last Sunday. The Giants defense was able to pin its ears back against Browns washed QB Deshaun Watson but won't be able to do the same against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. This is a massive bounce-back situation for Dallas WR CeeDee Lamb after he encountered blanket coverage against the Ravens last Sunday. I think this is a 'go off' spot for Lamb. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense has been hearing the critics loud and clear ever since Sunday's loss to Baltimore. The Ravens have the type of offense that can make an opposing defense look bad in any given game, however. The Giants do not. Look for Dallas to key on Nabers and make someone else on the Giants offense beat them on Thursday. It won't happen. Take Dallas (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Temple at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Temple rose up and stunned Utah State last Saturday, scoring a whopping 45 points in the process. Keep in mind, this is an Owls team that had scored a grand total of 34 points in its first three games - all losses - including just 11 in a defeat against another Service Academy in Navy. Simply put, I don't expect Temple to find much offensive success in this game.

While the Owls got ripped by Navy's option-based attack earlier in the season, I do think that at least gives them a leg up as they prepare to face Army's triple-option on a short week.If nothing else, they won't be caught flat-footed in this matchup.

Army has enjoyed an offensive renaissance so far this season, scoring 103 points through its first three games, going a perfect 3-0 along the way. Hanging 37 points on Rice at West Point is one thing, doing so on the road on a short week is another. I think this game will be all about controlling the football, and the clock, and getting out of Philadelphia with its flawless record intact. Style points mean little to teams like the Black Knights.

Defensively, Army has been outstanding in the early going. Note that last week it didn't allow a score against Rice until the game was already well in hand, ahead 30-0 over midway through the third quarter. Prior to that, against Florida Atlantic, the Black Knights gave up just a single touchdown in a 24-7 victory, that coming in the final minute of the first half. Take the under (8*).

MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Buffalo at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

The Bills have had 10 days to pat themselves on the back for their 2-0 start including a blowout win in primetime against division-rival Miami. I expect Buffalo to find the going much tougher against a hungry, winless team in the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday.

The Jags have run up against a tough early season schedule, first facing a full-strength Dolphins squad in the sweltering afternoon heat in Miami in Week 1 (they easily could have won that game were it not for a Travis Etienne goal-line fumble) and then hosting a loaded Browns defense that was coming off an embarrassing Week 1 loss at home against the Cowboys. Jacksonville has only been outscored by eight points through two games and that's with its offense producing next-to-nothing (a grand total of 30 points). I feel the Jags best days are ahead of them on offense and like the matchup against the Bills on Monday.

We know this Jacksonville offense can ball out. QB Trevor Lawrence admitted he hasn't been good enough through two games. Much is made about the awful track record of teams starting 0-2 in terms of reaching the playoffs. Keep in mind, the expanded playoffs do throw a wrench in that trend. Jacksonville still has everything to play for and the schedule does get a lot more manageable in October (vs. Colts, at Bears, vs. Patriots and vs. Packers). A win here could certainly flip the script. A loss and the Jags face the very real prospect of an 0-4 start with a difficult trip to Houston on deck next week.

The Bills have looked good through two games but we know what we're going to get with this team and that's often inconsistency. QB Josh Allen is being asked to shoulder more of the load on offense with a talent downgrade in terms of his weapons this season. So far, so good but I expect the Jags defense to offer far more resistance than the Cardinals and Dolphins did in the first two weeks.

Note that these two teams have met twice since 2021 with the Jaguars winning both matchups including a 25-20 victory in Buffalo last year. You would have to go back five meetings, all the way to 2016 to find the last time the Bills beat the Jags by more than a field goal. In last year's matchup the Jags prevailed despite Trevor Lawrence being sacked five times and Josh Allen throwing for 359 yards and two touchdowns (Jacksonville didn't record a single sack). I think there's actually room for improvement from the Jags on both sides of the football here, yet we're catching a handful of points. Take Jacksonville (10*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

There's no sugar-coating it, the Panthers season is already swirling down the drain after two nightmarish performances against the Saints and Chargers. But let's pump the brakes on this being an all-timer in terms of bad NFL teams. Carolina's first opponent, the New Orleans Saints, proceeded to throttle the mighty Cowboys the very next week in Dallas. Meanwhile, the Chargers look like they know exactly what they're doing under the guidance of Jim Harbaugh, jumping out to an identical 2-0 record to that of the Saints. My point is, perhaps the Panthers aren't quite as bad as most believe they are.

In a move most saw coming, Carolina elected to bench QB Bryce Young following last week's second straight poor showing. Veteran QB Andy Dalton takes over the offense and it's not as if he was signed off his couch. He was with the team last year and should be comfortable running the offense. I'm a believer that Dalton can at the very least settle things down and ultimately elevate this offense. It's not as if the Panthers are completely bereft of talent. This is an excellent spot for Carolina to regain its footing on offense as the Raiders have been matador-like in terms of run defense, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush through two games.

Las Vegas falls into a clear letdown situation here as it returns home after a massive come-from-behind upset win in Baltimore last Sunday. Few gave the Raiders a chance entering that game and certainly not when they were down double-digits in the second half. We saw Las Vegas open up the offense in that contest but that had a lot to do with game script as it was trailing by a considerable number of points. I suspect we see head coach Antonio Pierce's conservative tendencies resurface in this game as the Raiders go back to running the football. That's in our best interest as well as it effectively shortens the game and favors the team catching points.

It's critical not to over-react to NFL results on a week-to-week basis and I think that's precisely what the betting marketplace is doing by installing the Raiders are sizable favorites on Sunday. We'll grab all the points we can get with the Panthers but hopefully won't need them. Take Carolina (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams have been involved in low-scoring games to open the season and that's not unexpected. I do think this total has been set too low in a game where the script could play out a little differently than we've seen through two games, respectively.

The Chargers offensive line is quickly ascending to elite status. First-year Los Angeles head coach Jim Harbaugh has precisely the type of offense he wanted. While RB J.K. Dobbins' red hot start has come as a surprise to most, perhaps it shouldn't have. Pittsburgh has been stout against the run but I expect it to get tested here and I'm willing to bet on Dobbins continuing to eat.

Pittsburgh QB Justin Fields has only been asked to be a game manager to this point. I expect the Chargers competitive nature to ultimately force the Steelers offensive hand a little more this week. While it's unlikely Pittsburgh will start slinging the football all over the field, I'm banking on a few more splash plays than we've seen to this point. Note that the Chargers defense hasn't really been tested, drawing the Raiders and Panthers through the first two weeks. With that being said, they've still allowed 4.2 yards per rush. Steelers RB Najee Harris can thrive in Sunday's environment. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers did an excellent job of 'hiding' QB Malik Willis in last week's straight-forward win over the hapless Colts. In a road environment this week, I think Green Bay is going to have to open things up a little more if it wants to improve to 2-1 on the campaign.

The Titans should have learned by now that they're not good enough to grab a lead and then rely on their defense the rest of the way. They need to continue to apply pressure offensively and I've seen enough from QB Will Levis to know that he's at his best when he's pushing the football down the field. I do think he'll have a little more time in the pocket in this matchup as opposed to the first two weeks, when he faced the Bears and Jets outstanding fronts.

On a hot afternoon in Nashville, the defensive intensity will be difficult to keep up for four quarters. This game is being totalled like a potential slugfest but I don't see it playing out that way on the field. Take the over (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Things could have gone sideways in a hurry for the Packers following the injury to QB Jordan Love in Week 1. However, we saw Green Bay pick up a much-needed win at home against Indianapolis last Sunday to give it a lift heading into this tougher than it may seem matchup in Tennessee in Week 3. Love is back practising and the betting markets have reacted by pushing this line in the Packers favor. I don't expect him to play but even if he does, I still like the winless Titans in this spot.

Green Bay's gameplan last week involved hiding backup QB Malik Willis and letting its defense take care of the rest. That approach worked wonders against an awful Colts run defense, not to mention an Indy offense that will struggle to play from behind all season. I expect a different story to unfold against the Titans.

Were it not for a couple of glaring mistakes from Tennessee QB Will Levis last week against the Jets, it likely would have controlled that contest from start to finish and picked up its first win of the season.

The Titans defense has impressed me. It had Jets QB Aaron Rodgers under duress all afternoon long.

Offensively, I would anticipate Tennessee going back to a run-centric approach against a Packers defense you can most definitely run on (Green Bay has allowed 5.5 yards per rush and two rushing touchdowns through two games). Backing the 0-2 Titans laying points against a potential playoff team may not be the easiest bet to make this week but I believe it's the right one. Take Tennessee (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Tennessee and Oklahoma at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Tennessee has been toppling totals all by itself so far this season. I do think the Volunteers will face a little more resistance as they head to Stillwater to face the Sooners on Saturday.

Remember back two weeks ago, the Vols were actually held to just a single offensive touchdown in the first half on the road against N.C. State. It was only after the Wolfpack came completely unglued with mistake after mistake that the Vols offense took off in a 51-10 victory. I don't expect Oklahoma to make the same type of mistakes here.

While the Sooners do have a potent offense, I think their choice will be clear in this matchup as they look to play keep-away and limit Tennessee's possessions. They simply can't afford to have their defense on the field for long stretches against a home run hitting Vols offense.

While we're not likely to see a true defensive slugfest, I do think the total will prove too high. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Michigan plus the points over USC at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I don't like the way this situation sets up at all for USC as it travels across the country for its first true road game, and first Big Ten showdown against a Michigan squad that got flat out embarrassed in its first nationally-televised showcase game against Texas two weeks ago. Look for the Wolverines to put forth a much sharper performance this time around. The total says a lot about how this game is expected to play out as it sits in the low-40's. I'm expecting Michigan to do what it can to take the air out of the football and effectively shorten proceedings by leaning heavily on its ground attack. Alex Orji gets the start at quarterback, also showing the Wolverines hand a little bit. The Trojans have certainly impressed in their first two games but I think they're in for a battle here. Take Michigan (8*).

AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Navy plus the points over Memphis at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Navy has undoubtedly had this in-conference showdown circled on its calendar after giving Memphis all it could handle in an eventual 28-24 defeat in Tennessee last year. Were it not for that loss, the Midshipmen would have gone Bowling.

Consider this a tough spot for the Tigers as they stay on the road for a second straight game after springing an upset win over reeling Florida State in Tallahassee last week. While that victory may not be as big given how the Seminoles have struggled, it's still one that could lead to a letdown this week.

These two programs are certainly familiar with one another having met in each of the last nine seasons. The Tigers have reeled off five straight wins in the series after dropping three of the first four.

Navy enters this game with a different mindset this year, sporting a 2-0 record. I like the experience the Middies return on both sides of the football and believe they can throw a wrench in the Tigers hopes of a potential undefeated regular season (it's on the table following the win at Florida State).

These two teams have split four previous meetings in Annapolis with Memphis winning only one of those games by more than a field goal. Take Navy (10*).

My selection is on N.C. State plus the points over Clemson at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The Wolfpack will get an opportunity for a do-over of sorts as they square off against Clemson in a nationally-televised early kickoff matchup on Saturday. Remember, two weeks ago N.C. State was throttled in a primetime game at home against Tennessee.

While it may seem like it, the sky is not falling at N.C. State. Yes, Grayson McCall - the team's prized QB transfer from Coastal Carolina - was injured in last week's closer-than-expected win over Louisiana Tech. He won't play against Clemson, meaning freshman C.J. Bailey, who got his legs under him in last Saturday's win, will be tasked with running the offense. I don't feel that McCall has been quite as good as advertised through two-plus games so I'm not sure that the move to Bailey should be as big of a deal in the betting marketplace as it has been (this line has risen considerably since opening).

Clemson opened its campaign with an ugly loss to Georgia in Atlanta before returning home to dust Appalachian State 66-20 in Week 2. Last week, the Tigers had a dreaded early season bye week. The runway is clear for Clemson to reel off a number of wins in a row from here (including this one) but not a lot has come easy for the Tigers over the last couple of seasons.

While this matchup was once a walk in the park for Clemson, it has been a battle in recent years. In fact, the last three meetings going back to 2021 have all been decided by 10 points or less with N.C. State winning two of those games.

I think Dave Doeren's Wolfpack will rally around the injury to McCall and we'll see the defense in particular rise up in this their first road test of the season. Take N.C. State (8*).

My selection is on Washington State minus the points over San Jose State at 10 pm et on Friday.

Washington State blew the doors off Texas Tech two weeks ago and then followed that up with an Apple Cup victory over rival Washington last Saturday. Still, the Cougars find themselves on the outside looking in as far as the national top-25 rankings go. That could change after this week's game.

San Jose State enters this contest sporting an identical 3-0 record to that of Washington State. Not all undefeated records are created equally, however. The Spartans have defeated the likes of Sacramento State, Air Force and Kennesaw State. Yes, the win over Air Force, in Colorado Springs no less, was impressive. However, the case can be made that the Falcons just aren't very good this year as they proceeded to get crushed 31-3 against Baylor last week. San Jose State has set itself up well to reach a Bowl game as there are a number of winnable games on its schedule with only three more victories needed (I realize talking about Bowl games is a little ridiculous in the middle of September). I just don't believe this is one of them.

The Spartans haven't had much of a run game to speak of so far this season. It's going to be difficult to stay competitive if they can't effectively shorten proceedings by running the football and eating the clock in this environment.

The Cougars look like they've got a good one in QB John Mateer and I really like the way they involve everyone on offense and take calculated chances on defense. There's a real path for them to have a truly special season given their manageable schedule and I expect them to take full advantage to showcase what they've got in a Friday primetime game in Pullman. Left without a seat in the game of conference realignment musical chairs, this is a team that's playing with a real chip on its shoulder. Take Washington State (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between New England and New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

This is one of the lowest totals on the board this week and for good reason.

I was in attendance at last Sunday's Jets-Titans game in Nashville. New York didn't necessarily bring its 'A' game defensively in that contest yet still held Tennessee to only 17 points and toughened up when it needed to with a late red zone stop. Here, a couple of key injuries to Jets defensive players has me thinking that the Patriots will be able to find some success moving the football and effectively shortening proceedings by keeping the clock ticking. I question whether they'll be able to end many drives with points on the board, however. The injuries I'm referring to are DE Jermaine Johnson (OUT) and C.J. Mosley (QUESTIONABLE - missed practice on Tuesday). Note that the Pats offensive line is banged-up with three players dealing with injuries on a short week. With QB Jacoby Brissett having been already pressured relentlessly, the Pats would be well-served to go a little more conservative in terms of their play-calling in this difficult road environment.

While Aaron Rodgers still carries a favorable reputation as a passer, he's little more than a game manager (a good one at that) at this stage of his career. Very rarely did we see Rodgers push the ball downfield in Sunday's win over the Titans. The Patriots can certainly play some defense (note that they allowed two Seahawks touchdowns in the game's first 25 minutes but then none the rest of the way on Sunday) and I would anticipate the Jets continuing to operate conservatively on offense. While I would like this play a whole lot more at 40 or higher, I do think the 'under' is the way to go at the current number. Take the under (8*).

Monday Night Football Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

There's panic in the streets when it comes to the Falcons offense and namely QB Kirk Cousins. Something was amiss in last Sunday's game against Pittsburgh as Atlanta couldn't move the football, albeit against a terrific Steelers defense. No, Cousins may not be the same player he was at times with the Vikings but I do think we'll see a much better showing in a considerably more favorable matchup against the Eagles on Monday. I still like the make-up of this Falcons offense and think we see a leap from them in this spot.

The Eagles were thought to be a potential 'shootout' team this year and their season-opening result did nothing to change opinions as they prevailed in a high-scoring game against the Packers in Brazil. Philadelphia's defense has been in a state of regression for some time now. The good news is, the offense appears to be in midseason form - more than capable of hiding any warts the defense may show. Atlanta does have a capable defense but takes a big step up in class after facing Justin Fields and a limited Steelers offense last week. I expect the Eagles offense to eat in their home opener. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I understand the knee-jerk reaction leading this total downward after last week's results.

The Steelers offense looked handcuffed by new ultra-conservative offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, as expected. With that being said, I saw enough positives from the offense with Justin Fields at quarterback to expect to see some progression this week. Remember, it was fairly late that the Steelers handed the reins over to Fields with Russell Wilson nursing a calf injury. Another week of first-team reps certainly helps Fields' cause. It's also worth mentioning that while stout overall, the Broncos defense didn't fare particularly well in slowing Seahawks QB Geno Smith on the ground, nor did it provide much resistance to the Seattle running game.

Denver's offense looked out of sorts in QB Bo Nix's first career NFL start. That was obviously a tough ask of Nix to go into a hostile environment like Seattle and hit the ground running. This is by no means an explosive Denver offense but I do think we'll see improvement this week. Even if we don't, the potential is there for the Steelers game-wreckers on defense to wreak havoc, create turnovers and potentially short fields for the offense (or even score on their own). In general, I don't consider the Steelers to be a trust-worthy road team, particularly off a road victory which leads me to believe the Broncos find a way to stay competitive in their home opener on Sunday. That lends itself to a higher-scoring game than most are expecting in my opinion. Take the over (8*).

AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

While the Bengals home loss against the Patriots last week was a result few saw coming, I'm not overly worried about Cincinnati's prospects moving forward - at least on the offensive side of the football. I do think there's reason for concern when it comes to the Bengals defense and they figure to be severely tested against the Chiefs on Sunday. To put it bluntly, I don't think Cincinnati will get many stops against Kansas City in this game. I do, however, believe that the Bengals can bounce back offensively and ultimately partake in a shootout with the Chiefs.

Cincinnati's offense was extremely rusty in last week's game but let's not discount the fact that it was up against what might just be an elite Patriots defense. Ja'Marr Chase didn't get much practice in ahead of that game and while he and the Bengals weren't able to reach a contract extension agreement, at least that distraction is in the rear-view mirror, for now anyway. There's some concern that QB Joe Burrow still isn't 100% healthy as he was seen stretching out his hand on the sidelines last Sunday but all indications at practice so far this week are that he hasn't been limited at all.

The Chiefs defense that will oppose Burrow and the Bengals is good. I'm not sure it's great. Baltimore was able to move the football at will at times last Thursday night and were it not for the tip of Isaiah Likely's shoe being on the back line at the end of the game, we would have been talking about a game that eclipsed the 50-point mark. With so many weapons at his disposal (with the emergence of Rashee Rice and rookie burner Xavier Worthy), Patrick Mahomes is in line to lead Kansas City into its share of shootouts this season. This might just be one of them. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

These two teams met in the Divisional Round of last January's playoffs with that matchup also taking place here at Ford Field in Detroit. That contest totalled 54 points. I'm anticipating more of the same, if not even more offense, in this Sunday's rematch.

Last week's potential primetime shootout between the Rams and Lions fizzled but still got to 46 total points by way of overtime. The Rams weren't a great shootout partner in that one after they lost WR Puka Nacua and multiple cogs on their offensive line to injury. It's a different story here as the Buccaneers - a surprisingly productive offensive team a year ago, but not nearly as surprising this season - roll into town off a 37-point outburst against the Commanders.

Yes, this is a far more difficult matchup for Tampa Bay. I still think they can find success with QB Baker Mayfield in midseason rhythm with is pass-catching corps. We know what guys like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are all about but rookie WR Jalen McMillan showed flashes in last week's game as well.

The Lions might have unlocked another level offensively after WR Jameson Williams' monster performance last Sunday. Detroit is as loaded offensively as any team in the league and should feast on a subpar Bucs defense that has lost a number of key pieces in recent years. The fact that what projects as an awful Commanders offense was able to produce 20 points against this unit last Sunday doesn't bode well. I think unlike last Sunday when the Lions grabbed a lead and tried to slow play it in the second half, they'll keep their foot on the gas this week with the Bucs capable of applying some pressure all afternoon long. Take the over (8*).

NFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The fact that the Commanders managed to score 20 points in last week's loss in Tampa masked their ineptness. This is a bad team and one that I don't think has a lot of room for improvement on a week-to-week basis.

QB Jayden Daniels showed flashes against the Buccaneers but much of his success came on the ground. He took plenty of physical abuse in that game, to the point that head coach Dan Quinn mentioned in his post-game presser that Daniels won't be able to be subject to that sort of punishment moving forward. I'm anticipating an already limited offense might just simplify and scale things back even more this week. The Giants defense is loaded up front and capable of taking over this game.

Offensively, the Giants are a bit of a mess. However, I don't think things are quite as bad as they're being made out to be. QB Daniel Jones has taken a ton of criticism throughout his NFL career and it's often deserved. I do think he saves face for a week at least as he should be able to pick apart a porous Washington secondary. Rookie WR Malik Nabers was held relatively quiet in last week's loss to Minnesota. He figures to go off this week. Nabers was listed as limited on Thursday's practice report but all indications it was just a minor scare related to leg soreness.

Unlike the Commanders, who entered the season with extremely low expectations, the Giants need to right the ship in a hurry. Their schedule only gets tougher with a trip to Cleveland next week followed by a Thursday night home game against the Cowboys. Looking ahead even further, they'll travel to Seattle in Week 5 and then host the Bengals in Week 6. I could go on but the fact is, without a victory on Sunday there's a better than zero chance that New York doesn't win a game for a long time. Take New York (10*).

SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Georgia at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for Kentucky. Most are down on the Wildcats after they got drilled in their SEC opener against South Carolina last Saturday, at home no less. The Wildcat faithful were heading for the exits early in the fourth quarter in that contest but I expect a different story to unfold as they host mighty Georgia this week.

The Bulldogs will travel for the first time this season (their season-opener against Clemson was played at a 'neutral site' in Atlanta) after starting a perfect 2-0. While they've owned this series and took last year's matchup by a 51-13 score, recent meetings in Lexington have been competitive. In fact, during Georgia's current 14-game winning streak against Kentucky, it has won by more than 17 points on the road only once (in the last seven matchups in Lexington). In fact, the Dawgs have won by more than 17 in Lexington only once in the last nine matchups here.

This game obviously carries a little extra meaning for Kentucky QB Brock Vandagriff - a former five-star recruit by Georgia. Last week's shortcomings can't all be pinned on the QB - he was only part of the problem. I look for the Wildcats to clean things up this week and ultimately give the mighty Dawgs more of a fight than most expect. Take Kentucky (10*).

Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Indiana at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

UCLA delivered a ho-hum 16-13 win over Hawaii in its season-opener two weeks ago. A bye week early in the season isn't always welcomed but I think the Bruins - a team in a transition period on offense - were all for it. I'm anticipating a much sharper performance from the UCLA offense this week as the Bruins play their first-ever Big Ten game against Indiana.

The Hoosiers turned heads by putting up a school-record 77 points in last week's win over FCS squad Western Illinois. Indiana's potential defensive warts have been masked by an easy early season schedule that also included a game against Florida International. This will be the Hoosiers first road trip of the season.

While the Hoosiers have gotten off to a hot start offensively, I like the matchup for the Bruins defense here. UCLA stocked up in the right areas in the transfer portal and many of the new faces played key roles in the season-opening win over Hawaii (that was fuelled by the defense). Watch for transfers DL Jacob Busic and DB K.J. Wallace. Wallace had nine tackles and a sack in the opener while Busic contributed a pair of tackles to go along with a sack. Take UCLA (10*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington State and Washington at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Last year's Apple Cup matchup fizzled with just 45 total points scored. I expect a much different story to unfold as these two rivals do battle as non-conference foes this time around.

Washington State is off to a 2-0 start and has been paced by its offense, scoring a whopping 107 points through two games. Moreso than in recent matchups, this is a favorable spot for the Cougars against a somewhat rebuilt Huskies defense. Washington State has shown that quick-strike ability already this season - last week the Cougars scored three touchdowns in a span of less than eight minutes in the second quarter. QB John Mateer didn't have the best game through the air against Texas Tech but more than made up for it by rushing for 197 yards and a score. This is a Cougars offense that can beat you in a lot of different ways and I think the country will be introduced in Saturday's contest.

Washington's offense hasn't really gotten rolling yet this season but it hasn't needed to having faced Weber State and Eastern Michigan. This is a prime breakout spot against a Cougars defense that has weaknesses to be exploited. Note that the Huskies did show flashes on offense last week - at one point they scored three touchdowns in just over nine minutes in the second quarter. While the receiving corps no longer has the likes of Rome Odunze to embarrass opposing defenses, this is still a deep group that will establish themselves over time. QB Will Rogers is already a proven commodity from his days at Mississippi State and is off to a strong start having thrown four touchdown passes without an interception. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Massachusetts at 1 pm et on Saturday.

Buffalo looked like it was simply in it for the payday last Saturday on the road against fast-rising SEC squad Missouri. The Bulls didn't put up much of a fight and barely appeared to break a sweat in a 38-0 loss (they possessed the football for just over 21 minutes and attempted only 20 passes). I expect a much different story to unfold as the Bulls return home to host Massachusetts on Saturday.

I'm still higher on this Buffalo squad than most. I like the pieces the Bulls have in place on both sides of the football and feel this is a matchup they can take full advantage of.

UMass is off to an 0-2 start having already faced a pair of other MAC squads. While the Minutemen did cover the spread on the road against Toledo last week that had more to do with the Rockets looking disinterested than anything else. UMass didn't reach the end zone until just under three minutes remaining in the first half in that contest and not again until less than three minutes were left in the fourth quarter.

UMass QB Taisun Phommachanh has been running for his life for most of the first two games and that should be the case again on Saturday. He's been pretty much the team's entire offense through two games and that's not a good thing. The Minutemen defense has been on the field too much and looked broken down late in last week's contest, allowing three touchdowns in the game's final 20 minutes. Take Buffalo (8*).

My selection is on N.C. State minus the points over Louisiana Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Everything went wrong for N.C. State in last Saturday's drubbing at the hands of Tennessee - in front of a national tv audience no less. The Wolfpack also got a scare from Western Carolina in their season-opener so I don't need to tell you how important a strong performance is here against Louisiana Tech on Saturday.

This is a smash spot for N.C. State. The Wolfpack have all the talent in place, now they need to show it on the field before the schedule toughens up with a trip to Clemson on deck next week.

Louisiana Tech is off to a 1-0 start to the season after posting a 25-17 home win over FCS squad Nicholls State two weeks ago. The Bulldogs have questions at quarterback with Jack Turner exiting the opener with an injury (he wasn't all that effective before leaving the game). This is a Louisiana Tech team that lost a ton of talent from last year's team - particularly on offense. Diminutive burner WR Smoke Harris has been the offense in recent years but he's no longer in the picture. Consider this a 'wrong place at the wrong time' situation for Louisiana Tech. Take N.C. State (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between UNLV and Kansas at 7 pm et on Friday.

Kansas ran into a revenge-minded Illinois squad on the road last Saturday and paid the price in a much lower-scoring game than expected, 23-17 in favor of the Illini. The Jayhawks will return home to face another opponent seeking revenge on Friday. Remember, the Rebels and Jayhawks met in last December's Guaranteed Rate Bowl. That game went 49-36 in favor of Kansas. While I don't expect the Jayhawks to get tripped up again here, I do think the Rebels will be able to hang some points on them.

UNLV's aerial attack has fizzled a bit with Matthew Sluka taking over at quarterback for last year's standout Jordan Maiava (he transferred to USC). With that being said, you don't put up 72 points by fluke. The Rebels did just that last week, albeit against an FCS opponent in Utah Tech. Note that in Week 1 UNLV scored 27 points in an upset win over Houston. Sluka has certainly made the most of his overall poor numbers, throwing five touchdown passes through two games (on only 14 completions). Forget about Sluka's short-comings for a moment, the Rebels still have one of the most underrated wide receivers in college football in Ricky White and a dare-I-say dominant ground attack that features a ton of options.

As I mentioned, Kansas struggled to put points on the board in Saturday's loss to Illinois. This is still a loaded offense and I'm willing to bet against dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels turning in another stinker (he did manage to throw two touchdown passes against the Illini). There's experience all over the field for the Jayhawks on offense. While they're not likely to approach the 49 points they scored in the Bowl win over UNLV, getting into the 30's is probable. Look for the Rebels to take care of the rest. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona State and Texas State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

This is a better matchup than most casual college football fans probably realize. Arizona State and Texas State are both off to 2-0 starts. For the Bobcats, this is a massive opportunity to show what their program is about on a national stage. Not only that but with a win here the runway is clear for a truly special season with a very manageable schedule the rest of the way.

I don't think Arizona State will be interested in getting involved in a shootout. Last Saturday, the Sun Devils scored a touchdown just under six minutes into the game but then scored just one additional offensive touchdown the rest of the way (their defense did return a fumble for a touchdown). Even in their season-opener against Wyoming, while they did score 48 points, only four of their six touchdowns were produced by their offense.

Texas State wants to play fast and has proven it can score but we've yet to see it do it against a capable opponent (the Bobcats scored 83 points in their first two games against FCS squad Lamar and UTSA). Noting that Arizona State has already scored three defensive touchdowns this season, Texas State will need to avoid being reckless on offense if it wants to stage the 'upset'.

We've seen this total rise from the opener. Most predictions I've seen indicate we're in for a track meet. I simply feel it's more likely we see the two offenses orchestrate long, clock-churning drives that may or may not result in touchdowns. It's a high-scoring game but perhaps not as high as some are expecting. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Steelers defense was already elite before adding CB Donte Jackson from Carolina and LB Patrick Queen from Baltimore. The gameplan for Pittsburgh is simple. Play a game of hide-the-quarterback, run the football and lean on its defense to secure a road win in Week 1. I like the matchup for the Steelers.

Atlanta is saddled with fairly high expectations this season after bringing in a competent veteran quarterback in Kirk Cousins. After signing Cousins to a big deal the Falcons went out and drafted Michael Penix Jr. in the opening round. I don't love the fit for Cousins. I'll also take a 'believe it when I see it' approach to the Atlanta offense taking a big leap with former head coach Arthur Smith having moved on to Pittsburgh (as offensive coordinator). I fully expect the Falcons to remain a little too conservative on offense (given their defensive short-comings) with defensive-minded Raheem Morris taking over as head coach.

We could very well see both teams employ similar gameplans here as they look to effectively shorten proceedings in an effort to start the campaign off with a victory. A lower-scoring game certainly favors the underdog and I like Pittsburgh in that role out of the gates. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Many feel that the Panthers will have one of the league's worst defenses this season. I'm not nearly as low on this group and the fact is they draw a very favorable schedule early on, facing the Saints, Chargers and Raiders in the first three weeks of the season.

New Orleans doesn't look poised to expose Carolina's potential defensive weaknesses as it employs one of the league's most unproven, dare I say worst offensive lines. The Saints are already run by an ultra-conservative coaching staff led by Dennis Allen. QB Derek Carr is a check-down specialist at this stage of his career and beyond WR Chris Olave doesn't have a wealth of weapons to work with.

For Carolina, its offense remains a work-in-progress with QB Bryce Young entering his second year. I do think we'll see a run-heavy gameplan here in Week 1 as the Panthers look to effectively shorten proceedings in the role of division underdog (against a team that beat them twice last season). Take the under (8*).

AFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This game is bring priced as a potential shootout and why not after last season's two meetings produced 51 and 63 points. We'll go the other way as I believe there's a path for this contest to be much lower-scoring than most are expecting.

The thinking is that the Texans are really going to open things up offensively in dynamic QB C.J. Stroud's second year at the helm. I still think head coach DeMeco Ryans is always going to be looking for a reason to go conservative and he'll likely get it on Sunday in a game Houston should be able to control. You don't go out and upgrade your backfield with a RB like Joe Mixon and not use him. I fully expect to see a balanced offensive attack from Houston on Sunday and should it build a lead it will likely err on the side of caution - frustratingly so.

The Colts might orchestrate the most run-heavy offensive attack in the league. QB Anthony Richardson showed flashes of brilliance before getting injured last year but he still has accuracy issues passing the football and isn't spoiled with riches as far as weapons go. Indianapolis will lean heavily on the legs of both Richardson and workhorse RB Jonathan Taylor. The last thing Indianapolis wants to do here is give extra possessions to the Texans offense.

All of that is to say, I can anticipate a scenario where the clock is ticking away for most of the afternoon in Indy. Take the under (10*).

NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers started last season 0-6 and ultimately won only two games in what was a truly disastrous campaign. By all accounts, the needle is pointing up entering the 2024 season with first-year head coach Dave Canales taking over after a successful stint at the Buccaneers offensive coordinator. This is the perfect opportunity for the Panthers to make a statement that things will be different this year after getting swept in the season series against the division-rival Saints last year.

Full disclosure, this play is more about fading the favored Saints and what I consider to be the league's worst head coach-QB tandem in Dennis Allen and Derek Carr. Allen is as conservative as it gets in today's NFL and I don't need to tell you that doesn't generally lead to success beating pointspreads. Carr has never seen a check-down he doesn't like and is clearly on the downside of his career. He'll be leaning heavily on RB Alvin Kamara who doesn't figure to have much tread left on his tires. I am high on Saints WR Chris Olave but that's it on an otherwise pedestrian offensive attack that has an extremely low ceiling thanks to an awful offensive line.

The Saints dominated this matchup last year and Panthers QB Bryce Young in particular. That's clearly been baked into this pointspread, however, as has been the offseason talent rotation out of Carolina's defense. I like the 'nobody believes in us' angle with underdogs like the Panthers early in the season, before all hope is potentially lost, and certainly in division games such as this one. Take Carolina (10*).

My selection is on Georgia Southern plus the points over Nevada at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Nevada has been one of the good stories in the early going this season. Little was expected from the Wolf Pack this season but they started off by giving SMU all it could handle and then staged an upset win on the road against Troy last week. I'm not convinced Nevada will keep the positive vibes building on Saturday, however, as it hosts Georgia Southern.

The Eagles nearly pulled off an upset of their own last week but ultimately fell short in a wild 56-45 decision against Boise State. Broncos RB Ashton Jeanty was the story in that contest. Georgia Southern won't have to contend with a future pro runner like that this week.

With the Sun Belt Conference figuring to be extremely competitive this year, the Eagles need to win all the games they should if they're going to go Bowling again. I think they're good enough to do so. While they get a favorable home date against FCS squad South Carolina State next week, they'll have to travel to face Ole Miss the next Saturday. In other words, a loss here and they're staring down a 1-3 record heading into a tough Sun Belt schedule.

This is a game where I expect Georgia Southern's defense to bounce back. Nevada's offense isn't all that difficult to scheme against. The Wolf Pack have a game manager in QB Brendon Lewis running the offense. They'll look to successfully run the football, just as Boise State did against Georgia Southern last week. I'm just not convinced they'll enjoy the same level of success - in fact, I know they won't. The Eagles are far better defensively than they showed - that poor performance had more to do with a talented Broncos offense than anything else.

Offensively, Georgia Southern is still a work-in-progress but I do think there are enough weapons to outlast Nevada on Saturday. Consider this a 'wrong team favored' type of game. Take Georgia Southern (8*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Missouri at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Talk about a lack of respect. While I understand Missouri is on a rocket ship as a football program and has the potential to shake up the new-look SEC this year, I don't think Buffalo is the down-trodden MAC squad that most believe it is.

Entering the campaign, most had the Bulls pegged to finish third-last in the MAC, ahead of only Ball State and Akron. It's early and that's certainly in the range of possible outcomes but I liked what I saw from Buffalo in its season-opener, even though it came against an FCS opponent in Lafayette last week.

In that contest, the Bulls didn't allow a touchdown (or any points for that matter) until just shy of five minutes into the third quarter. Offensively, QB C.J. Ogbonna showed that he can be more than just a runner, passing for just shy of 200 yards and two touchdowns. WR Nik McMillan has a chance to be a star in this offense and he showed flashes last week, hauling in five catches for 76 yards and a score. Boston College transfer Taji Johnson has the potential to be a load for opposing secondaries as well. His big frame made two catches for 39 yards and a touchdown in the win.

The ground game will be key here as the Bulls have an elite offensive line capable of paving the way for a terrific stable of running backs. I think Buffalo has a good chance of controlling the clock for stretches and ultimately shortening this football game - that's music to the ears of bettors grabbing as many points as we are here.

There's not a lot bad I can say about Missouri's 51-0 romp over Murray State last week. You do wonder whether we'll see the Tigers empty the tank here, however, with the schedule about to toughen up with a game against Boston College next week (followed by the start of SEC play a week later). Note that after scoring four touchdowns (three on offense) in the game's first 12 minutes last week, the Tigers only reached the end zone two more times the rest of the way and one of those scores came with just one second remaining before halftime. I certainly do think Buffalo can give Missouri a bit more of a push than FCS squad Murray State did. This is quite simply too many points. Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa State and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off dominant victories in their respective season openers last week. In the case of Iowa, it was a real stunner as the Hawkeyes put up a whopping 40 points. That would have taken them about three games to accomplish last year. With that being said, I'm not anticipating a whole lot of offensive fireworks in the latest instalment in this storied rivalry.

Iowa State WR's Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins went off in last week's win over North Dakota, hauling in 13 catches for 210 yards and a pair of touchdowns...and the Cyclones still scored only 21 points. This is going to be a methodical offense and one that doesn't have a ton of balance right now with RB Abu Sama not a true home run hitter out of the backfield. QB Rocco Becht is solid but he's better suited to being a game manager, especially against a defense as tough as Iowa's.

The Hawkeyes offense got rolling against Illinois State but let's not get too excited. It took them more than a half to find the end zone, recording their first touchdown of the game with just over 11 minutes remaining in the third quarter. They exploded from there but it had more to do with Illinois State not being able to keep its offense on the field than anything else.

While Iowa's defense grabs more headlines, Iowa State is terrific in that department as well. I expect the Cyclones to give Hawkeyes QB Cade McNamara fits all afternoon long on Saturday. Iowa's ground game went off against Illinois State but Iowa State has the athleticism on defense to keep everything in front of it in this matchup.

This game won't be short on entertainment but it might be on points. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 12 noon et on Saturday.

When these two teams met almost a year ago to the day, they combined to score just 48 points in a Cincinnati road win. Both of the defenses that played in that game were significantly stronger than the ones we'll see in this rematch, at least in my opinion. Meanwhile, both offenses are upgraded, as evidenced by last week's strong Week 1 showings. I'm anticipating a potential track meet in Cincinnati on Saturday.

Pitt rolled to a 55-24 win over Kent State last Saturday. While the Panthers were boosted by a punt return touchdown, hanging 55 points on an FBS opponent is no joke. QB Eli Holstein looked comfortable running the offense while RB Desmond Reid appeared to take the reins out of the backfield with a 145-yard performance (on just 14 carries). I think the Panthers have plenty of runway this week against a Bearcats defense that is rebuilding in a sense. Cincinnati may get Dontay Corleone back on the field but it's tough to envision him not being on a snap count after dealing with blood clots.

Cincinnati's offense figures to take a leap forward in Scott Satterfield's second year at the helm. The Bearcats wasted no time getting rolling against Towson last week, scoring three offensive touchdowns in a nine-minute stretch in the first quarter. New starting QB Brendan Sorsby has no shortage of weapons at his disposal. Perhaps the biggest news out of Week 1 was the emergence of RB Evan Pryor. He turned four carries into 105 yards and a touchdown in the win. The Bearcats are loaded at the running back position and I believe the Panthers are going to have a difficult time keeping them in front of them all afternoon on Saturday.

Last year's shootout fizzled between these teams. I don't think this year's contest will disappoint, however. We're working with a high total but I believe it could (and should) be even higher. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Friday.

I'm not quite as high on the Eagles as some entering the 2024 season. Yes, they're still going to contend for the NFC East title. However, I also think there's a good chance we see the Packers rise to elite status and want to be on board before the train leaves the station early in the campaign as far as value goes.

Green Bay made a number of savvy offseason moves, on both sides of the football. There was little subtraction from a core that improved steadily and elevated down the stretch last season. Instead, the Packers added key pieces that have the potential to put them over the hump and make them a true contender in the NFC this year.

Of course, this is a terrific early measuring stick game for the Packers. It's similar to the situation the Ravens were in last night, but Baltimore undoubtedly entered the season with more questions than Green Bay. The Ravens were also up against a truly elite Chiefs squad that certainly didn't forget opening last season with a Thursday night loss to Detroit.

I'm sure the Packers feel a little disrespected to be opening the season as underdogs in this neutral site contest. They want to be in the same conversation with the Eagles as far as NFC contenders go and I expect them to come out and make a statement on Friday. Take Green Bay (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between BYU and SMU at 7 pm et on Friday.

The SMU offense didn't come out of the gates on fire this season, although perhaps its struggles in its narrow season-opening win can be forgiven as Nevada has looked better than expected through two games. We saw the Mustangs offense get loose against Houston Baptist last Saturday and while BYU will offer a tougher test, I expect SMU to be up for the challenge.

Even if it was against an FCS opponent, the fact that SMU scored three offensive touchdowns in an eight-minute stretch in the first quarter and then three more in a 21-minute stretch from the third to the fourth quarter - when the game was already well in hand - was impressive to say the least. With all of the returning talent, this has the potential to be one of the country's best offenses as SMU joins the ACC this season.

BYU QB Jake Retzlaff impressed in his debut as the starter, after winning the job over experienced signal-caller Gerry Bohanon in August. I liked the way the Cougars kept pouring it on, much like SMU even against an FCS opponent in Southern Illinois. While Retzlaff stole the headlines with a 348-yard, three-touchdown passing day, the backfield duo of L.J. Martin and Hinckley Ropati have the potential to be special as well. Add in shoe-in WR1 in Chase Roberts (he hauled in seven catches for 108 yards and also ran the ball twice in the win over SIU) and the Cougars offense appears to be in good shape.

SMU's defense wasn't really tested last week but did allow what should be a pedestrian Nevada offense to score touchdowns in each of the first three quarters in its season-opener. Expect plenty of points on the board on Friday night. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

The last four relevant regular season meetings between the Ravens and Chiefs (going back to 2018) have all been relatively high-scoring, totalling 71, 54, 61 and 51 points. The oddsmakers are obviously anticipating a much different style of game in the latest instalment with the total sitting in the mid-40's. Keeping in mind, January's AFC Championship Game between these teams totalled just 27 points, I believe it's the right move.

How many of the Chiefs home games last year managed to eclipse the total we're working with on Thursday? Just two out of nine games at Arrowhead Stadium. Are we anticipating that big of a shift from Kansas City this year? Hardly.

There's plenty of continuity when it comes to this Chiefs team - on both sides of the football. Their offense is more methodical than most realize and I think they'll need to be careful against a new-look Ravens defense.

Are we sure that we should be downgrading this Baltimore defense with defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald moving on? All indications are that first-year D.C. Zach Orr has put his stamp on the defense and the players love playing for him. While there's a lot of veteran talent that left by way of free agency, I think the youth movement might just inject a little more enthusiasm than might have otherwise been there. Make no mistake, this is still a talented defense and one that will relish the opportunity to face the defending Super Bowl champions on opening night.

Much like the Chiefs, the Ravens have seen their offense become more methodical over the years. Kansas City has a knack for stamping out big plays and I'm confident we'll see Steve Spagnuolo's defense keep everything in front of it on Thursday as well.

It's early but make no mistake, this is a game both of these teams feel they can and should get as perennial contenders for the AFC crown. While we'll undoubtedly see some crisp offense at times with the likes of Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes running the show, I'm not convinced this one approaches 50. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between LSU and USC at 7:30 pm et on Sunday.

This game is begging for 'over' money with the total dropping a couple of points. Both of these teams were built for shootouts last year and on a fast track at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, most will be anticipating more of the same in Sunday's season-opener. I'm not so easily convinced.

LSU loses a slew of offensive weapons from last year's team. The cupboard is by no means bare but you don't get better with the likes of QB Jayden Daniels and WR's Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas moving on to the NFL. That's not to mention the fact that offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock left for Notre Dame. As we saw in the ReliaQuest Bowl, the Tigers offense can still thrive with QB Garrett Nussmeier under center. I do think there could be some growing pains early on, however, and the Tigers will be facing what can only be an improved USC defense after making a splash in the transfer portal.

The Trojans are also ushering in a new era at quarterback with Caleb Williams now a Chicago Bear. Miller Moss has been anointed the starter in Week 1 but it likely won't be long until he's replaced by UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava. There are more questions than answers on this USC offense with RB MarShawn Lloyd onto the NFL and unproven talent at the wide receiver position.

There's no question LSU is focuses on improving its defense following a disastrous 2023 campaign. With an almost entirely new defensive coaching staff and just enough difference-makers returning to the field, there's only one way to go and that's up. Take the under (8*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Old Dominion plus the points over South Carolina at 4:15 pm et on Saturday.

Last year, we successfully faded Old Dominion in Week 1 as it was in the wrong place at the wrong time, facing a revenge-minded Virginia Tech squad in Blacksburg, Expectations aren't all that high for Old Dominion this season, even if they've exceeded them time and time again. I like the continuity for the Monarchs with Ricky Rahne having been the head coach since 2020 and finally a carry-over at quarterback in Grant Wilson returning. Wilson is a standout but certainly not a household name. I like his chances of steadying the Monarchs offense and ultimately keeping his team competitive in this game.

South Carolina ushers in a new era at quarterback with LaNorris Sellers taking over. The redshirt freshman is loaded with potential as a dual-threat to ignite the Gamecocks offense. I'm just not sure an offense gets better by losing the likes of WR's Xavier Legette and Antwane Wells and TE Trey Knox. The fact that Sellers will be taking over the offense for the first time with a slew of other new faces is concerning from a pointspread perspective at least.

Much like Grant Wilson is the unquestioned leader on offense, the Monarchs boast a good one on defense as well in LB Jason Henderson. He led the entire country in tackles last season and is back to lead the way in 2024. Of course, there are changes to deal with on the defensive side of the football - par for the course in today's college football world. If there's a weakness or question mark on the Monarchs defense it's in the secondary, but I'm not convinced Sellers will be able to take full advantage right out of the gates.

I mentioned expectations are rather low for Old Dominion. Most have it pegged for sixth place (out of seven teams) in the ultra-competitive Sun Belt East Division. We're talking about a team that made great strides last season and narrowly missed out on a Bowl victory. I'm willing to give the Monarchs the benefit of the doubt, even against an SEC foe on the road in Week 1. Look for a closer game than most are expecting. Take Old Dominion (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Miami University and Northwestern at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Miami is known for its slow starts offensively - at least in recent years. The Redhawks have scored 14 points or less in their season-opener in three straight seasons and they draw another tough defensive opponent in Northwestern on the shores of Lake Michigan this year.

Yes, Miami is brimming with potential offensively. QB Brett Gabbert is back to lead the offense for what seems like a 10th straight year (he's back for his sixth and final season). Last year, Gabbert missed the stretch run as the Redhawks ended up winning another MAC Championship. The offense does have to replace some key parts and Gabbert's number one job will be taking care of the football against a Wildcats defense that was among the nation's most opportunistic last year.

Northwestern is hoping to take a step forward offensively this season but I'm expecting more of the same. The Wildcats haven't named a starting quarterback for Week 1 and I don't need to tell you that's not a good thing. Whoever starts under center will undoubtedly be looking to manage the game and limit mistakes rather than unlock an explosive offensive attack. Keep in mind, Miami returns a ton of experience and talent defensively - a big reason why this pointspread is as short as it is.

Last year, the Redhawks opened the campaign with a 38-3 beatdown in a Friday night game in Miami (Florida). The defense did what it could in that game but the offense simply couldn't stay on the field, gaining just 215 total yards. This figures to be a slightly more forgiving matchup. I expect both offenses to move the football at times and both should enter with a similar mindset of looking to effectively shorten proceedings in an effort to secure a victory - for Miami out of respect for the Northwestern defense and for Northwestern simply due to its lack of explosive playmakers on offense. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Virginia Tech minus the points over Vanderbilt at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Vanderbilt is coming off another disastrous season and has basically gone back to the drawing board in advance of the 2024 campaign, making near wholesale changes in terms of both player personnel and coaches. QB Diego Pavia joints the team from New Mexico State but you have to wonder what sort of impact he'll make in the opener as the Commodores haven't even named their starting QB (Utah transfer Nate Johnson has been competing with Pavia for the starting job). I wonder whether either QB has a good handle on the offense right now, with so many new faces in the mix.

Virginia Tech got off to a predictably strong start last year, routing Old Dominion in its season-opener. Things went sideways from there but a funny thing happened down the stretch as the Hokies offense ignited and their defense came together, winning five of their final seven games including a Bowl rout of Tulane.

Expectations are high for the Hokies heading into 2024 but that's not necessarily a bad thing. I like the fact that they're opening the campaign on the road and fully expect them to make a statement against a beatable SEC foe.

Unlike Vandy, Virginia Tech boasts a ton of returning talent on both sides of the football. The continuity between QB and receivers can't be understated with Kyron Drones coming off a breakout campaign and in line for more success with the likes of WRs Ali Jennings and Jaylin Lane and TE Nick Gallo back as weapons. Also note that four of five starters return on the offensive line.

Defensively the Hokies are loaded. I like the matchup here as they have the athleticism to contend with Pavia should he end up being Vandy's starter under center. This isn't an overly big defense but that's not a bad thing against a dual-threat QB like Pavia. Take Virginia Tech (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Western Michigan and Wisconsin at 9 pm et on Friday.

This total has been set as if the Badgers are going to explode offensively against the Broncos. I'm not so easily convinced.

Both of these offenses are ushering in new starting quarterbacks. For Western Michigan it's Hayden Wolff transferring in from Old Dominion where he had mixed results in a couple of seasons. It's a similar story as Wisconsin welcomes former Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke. Both have been turnover-prone at times and I'm not convinced either will have the full offensive playbook at their disposal here in Week 1.

There's reason to believe Wisconsin will return to its roots in a sense this season and that means focusing on pounding the football, controlling clock and ultimately stacking wins. RB Chaz Mellusi is back after a devastating injury suffered early last season. The Badgers offensive line can blast away as usual. I do think Western Michigan is better-positioned to slow opposing ground games this season, however. It all starts with 310-point NT Mason Nelson clogging up the middle. This Broncos defense is loaded with sure tacklers and I think they can limit the Badgers home run ability on the ground.

On the flip side, Western Michigan brings back two top rushers from last season and it's gameplan as a sizable underdog on Friday should be simple, run the football, take care of the football and effectively shorten proceedings in hopes of staying within arm's reach.

The Broncos will need to be cautious against what I project to be an improved Badgers defense that is loaded from the back in with standouts in the secondary, S Hunter Wohler and CB Ricardo Hallman leading the way. Up front the Badgers have a considerable size advantage and figure to swallow up Western Michigan's runners at every opportunity. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over North Carolina at 8 pm et on Thursday.

I think the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this matchup.

Yes, North Carolina rolled Minnesota 31-13 last year. That was a completely different matchup as the Tar Heels offense was led by now-New England Patriot QB Drake Maye and the Golden Gophers were a shell of their former selves on both sides of the football. The Tar Heels undoubtedly remain the flashier team and certainly the easier side to click the 'bet' button in support of. I'm just not convinced they get the cash here in Week 1.

Minnesota ushers in a new era offensively with former FCS standout QB Max Brosmer taking over the reins. Perhaps even more importantly for a team that wants to run the football and control time of possession, the Gophers backfield is revamped and reloaded thanks to the transfer portal. I expect this new-look Gophers offense to find success against a beatable Tar Heels defense.

North Carolina reeled off six straight victories to open last season. In fact, the Tar Heels have gotten off to hot starts in each of the last two campaigns. I think this year's North Carolina group is more similar to the team that opened with just two wins in its first four contests in 2021, however. That squad lost its opener 17-10 on the road against Virginia Tech. Of note, that's the last time the Tar Heels started the season with a true road game, as is the case here. UNC feels good about transfer QB Max Johnson but I'm not sure he's the polished passer that Brosmer is for Minnesota.

While it's only Week 1, this is a key game for the Gophers as they'll open the season with four straight home tilts. Talk about an opportunity to 'set the tone'. I look for P.J. Fleck's squad to take advantage of the opportunity. Take Minnesota (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Florida State and Georgia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday.

An interesting conference clash to open the 2024 college football season as Florida State and Georgia Tech do battle in Dublin on Saturday. For Florida State this will mark the first of two straight nationally-televised ACC battles as it will return to American soil to face Boston College next week.

There's plenty of change to consider when it comes to the Seminoles, as is often the case with so many players moving on to greener pastures, whether it be the NFL or otherwise. Do-it-all QB Jordan Travis won't be easy to replace. D.J. Uiagaleilei takes over, joining his third different college program after finally finding his footing at Oregon State. While he does figure to be a good fit in this offense, I'm not convinced he'll be on the same page as all of his explosive weapons right out of the gate - nor will he need to be. This is a game where the Seminoles can lean heavily on their loaded backfield to shoulder much of the offensive load, and let their elite defense take care of the rest.

Speaking of that defense, the 'Noles remain loaded in that department. It's their secondary in particular that I'm most impressed by, comfortable with anointing that group as a 'no-fly zone' of sorts. Given the Yellow Jackets difficulty taking care of the football last season with turnover-prone QB Haynes King, I question whether Georgia Tech will really be looking to test that Hokies pass defense early and often on Saturday.

There is a path for the Yellow Jackets to stay competitive in this football game, but I think it involves churning out long, clock-eating drives in an attempt to effectively shorten proceedings. The reasonably short pointspread leads me to believe this one could turn out to be a little uglier than expected. Take the under (8*).

Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

I had this total pegged at 45, maybe 45.5 if I'm being generous to the two offenses. Yet here we are, working with a total of 47.5 at the time of writing with the potential we see it bump up a half-point at some books in advance of Sunday's kickoff. We got the result we wanted in the late game on Conference Championship Sunday as the 49ers got shredded early before rallying for a wild 34-31 victory over the Lions (in which they would have covered the spread were it not for a late Lions touchdown). Note that the 'under' is 16-11 in San Francisco's last 27 games following an 'over' result and 6-3 in its last nine contests after giving up 30 points or more in its previous game, including a perfect 2-0 this season in that latter situation. There is reason to believe the Chiefs can move the football on this 49ers defense but I don't believe game script (this projects as a tightly-contested affair) will force Kansas City to play fast or bomb away. With that said, the Chiefs have attempted 30 or more passes 11 times going back to October 29th and didn't throw for 300 or more yards in any of those contests so even if they do throw the football more than we expect, it doesn't necessarily work against us. Andy Reid's team has evolved into one that relies heavily on its ground attack and short passing game to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten proceedings. That's precisely how they went into Baltimore and upset the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. I do suspect we'll see the 49ers continue to employ a run-funnel defensive gameplan in this contest in an effort to stamp out Kansas City's big-play potential through the air. The strength of this Niners defense is in the middle - a big reason it was so successful in keeping opposing tight ends under wraps all season long, and certainly in the playoffs. Kansas City TE Travis Kelce will draw plenty of prop bet money from recreational bettors leading up to Sunday's game and I don't think the sportsbooks mind that one bit. On the flip side, the Chiefs defense is elite. It presents challenges all over the field for the 49ers offense. While I'm higher than Niners QB Brock Purdy than some, he's going to have a difficult time trying to find his favorite target WR Brandon Aiyuk against the Chiefs lock-down corners. Meanwhile San Francisco TE George Kittle continues to deal with a nagging toe injury and might be best deployed as a decoy in this particular matchup. RB Christian McCaffrey will get his but he's essentially the only Niners skill position player that draws a favorable matchup here. There could be times where he's on an island trying to carry the Niners offense down the field. Again, any success McCaffrey has figures to keep the clock moving, effectively shortening this contest. The 'under' is 12-7 in the Chiefs last 19 games following a road win and a long-term 27-20 in their last 47 contests after an upset win away from home. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 4-1 in Kansas City's last five games following a bye week and 23-12 in its last 35 contests in that situation. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Detroit at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Lions have needed everything they had in the tank to get past the Rams and Buccaneers in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Now they hit the road for the first time in the postseason and I believe it's a case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time as they take on the 49ers in Santa Clara on Sunday. Detroit is dealing with a cluster of injuries on its offensive line with Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow both banged-up. Keep in mind, the Lions offense already takes a hit at the best of times on the road, QB Jared Goff in particular. The 49ers defense presents a nightmarish matchup for most opposing offenses and this is no different. Playing from behind isn't the Lions strength but that's a situation I expect them to be in for much of the evening on Sunday. That likely means more of standout rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs, which doesn't seem like a negative on the face of it but veteran David Montgomery is the much better pass blocker and Goff will need all the help he can get against a ferocious 49ers defensive front. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy struggled mightily in the wet weather against the Packers last Saturday but should face no such difficulty with a flawless forecast in store this week. Purdy should be able to take the lid off the Lions leaky pass defense with WR Brandon Aiyuk. Whether or not WR Deebo Samuel can play isn't all that relevant as far as I'm concerned as the Niners can beat the Lions in several other ways, including with TE George Kittle who draws a smash spot against a defense that has had no success containing opposing TE's this season. RB Christian McCaffrey runs into a very tough matchup here but that's nothing new. He tends to exceed expectations on the regular in this type of contest. The Lions are just 14-20 ATS in their last 34 games following three straight wins. Meanwhile, the Niners are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win but non-cover and 4-0 ATS in their last four contests after a victory by three points or less. Take San Francisco (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Baltimore at 3 pm et on Sunday.

While there are plenty of offensive stars on display in this matchup, headlined by the quarterback showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, I actually expect points to come at a premium on Sunday afternoon in Baltimore. I don't envision either team having a ton of success throwing the football. The Chiefs have done a tremendous job of containing mobile opposing quarterbacks over the years and job number one will be taking away Lamar Jackson's legs on Sunday. Of course Jackson is playing arguably the best football of his career right now so that's no easy task. I do think we'll see the Chiefs defense, which is relatively healthy considering the time of year, at least force the Ravens to go on long, methodical drives that may or may not end in 7's on the board. Meanwhile, the Baltimore defense should feast on a Chiefs offense that has been gashed by injuries on the offensive line. Not only that but RB Isaiah Pacheco, who has been the team's unsung hero down the stretch, is playing on a bad toe and ankle. I would anticipate Kansas City using its short passing game and expect to see Patrick Mahomes flushed out of the pocket and forced to run the football on plenty of occasions on Sunday. Again, long, clock-eating drives could turn out to be the story of the game. Note that the 'under' is 8-1 in the Chiefs last nine games following a win by three points or less and 9-5 in their last 14 contests following four straight victories, as is the case here. The Ravens have seen the 'under' go 10-6 in their last 16 games following a home win and a long-term 30-21 in their last 51 contests after a victory by 21 points or more. Take the under (10*).

NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 3 pm et on Sunday.

This game has shootout potential. The same thing could have been said for the Lions matchup with the Rams last week but the scoring fizzled in the second half following a blazing hot start from the two offenses. Here, I expect both teams to score early and often. The Buccaneers draw a favorable matchup from an offensive standpoint but a tough one defensively. QB Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his NFL career right now and were it not for a couple of drops on potential big plays to veteran WR Mike Evans last Monday, Tampa Bay probably would have approached 40 points against what was once considered an elite Eagles defense. Here, the Bucs draw a Lions defense that can't stop the pass. Yes, Detroit has snuffed out opposing ground attacks but that's not really what Tampa Bay is all about right now. We've already seen the Bucs offense thrive in previous indoor games this season, scoring 20 points in Minnesota, 26 in New Orleans, 37 in Houston, 20 in Indianapolis and 29 in Atlanta. QB Jared Goff and the Lions explosive offense should continue to cook in this plus matchup on Sunday. The Bucs will do what they do defensively and that involves plenty of blitzing. Goff should eat them up with quick passes, noting that the Lions possess a rock solid offensive line and one of the best blocking running backs in football in David Montgomery. It's a pick your poison type of situation for the Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs will have to hope their offense can keep pace all afternoon long. Note that the 'over' is 7-2 in Tampa Bay's last nine road games as an underdog of seven points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. The 'over' is certainly flashing for the Lions noting that the 'over' has gone a perfect 5-0 in their last five games following a win by three points or less, 19-11 in their last 30 contests played indoors and a long-term 122-103 when coming off an 'under' result. Take the over (10*).

AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

This total has dropped considerably since opening in part due to weather concerns with cold temperatures and potentially gusting winds playing a factor. I'm not overly concerned. The first meeting between these two teams this season was a bit of a stinker as Baltimore rolled to a 25-9 victory. Needless to say, the Texans are a much different team now than they were then (that previous matchup came in Week 1). Rookie QB C.J. Stroud is the real deal. I like the way this Texans offense has evolved over the course of the season. As good as the Ravens defense is, it is by no means perfect. Baltimore has actually allowed 4.5 yards per rush this season. Going back to mid-October, the Ravens were torched for 120+ rushing yards in eight of their last 12 games. There's undoubtedly a path forward for the Texans offense here and I'm confident we'll see them play loose. Head coach DeMeco Ryans is defensive-minded without question but I like the way he let the offense cook down the stretch and certainly in last week's playoff opener against Cleveland. Note that Houston has scored 20+ points in nine of its last 11 games, only failing to reach that number in a game where Stroud suffered a concussion and then when he missed the next week. Of note, Baltimore will be without top CB Marlon Humphrey for this game, easing the matchup for Texans breakout WR Nico Collins as well. Enough about the Texans, let's talk about the Ravens electric offense. I don't think Houston is going to have many answers against a well-rested Baltimore offense. The Texans haven't performed particularly well against the pass, in fact they've been downright awful in that regard at times. They've also struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks on the ground, yielding seven rushing touchdowns over the course of the season. Everything is on the table for the Baltimore offense here and I don't expect it to take its foot off the gas pedal for one moment in this game. Note that the 'over' is 23-15 in the Texans last 38 games when seeking revenge for a loss by 14 points or more against an opponent. When that previous blowout loss came on the road the 'over' has gone 15-7 in their last 22 contests. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 6-3 in the Ravens last nine games following a loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (10*).

Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I don't think it can be understated just how well the Ravens were playing prior to resting their starters in Week 18 against Pittsburgh (they lost that game 17-10). They had won six straight games heading into that contest, going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. The wins were all impressive including a 37-31 victory over the Rams in a rainstorm in Baltimore, a 33-19 rout of the 49ers in Santa Clara and a 56-19 dismantling of the Dolphins at home. I love what the Texans have done this season. They're undoubtedly a team on the rise and C.J. Stroud is already being talked about as a top-five quarterback in the league (rightfully so). They're running into an extremely difficult matchup here, however. The Ravens aren't the type of team to take their foot off the gas and they have favorable matchups all over the field on offense. Not only has Houston struggled to defend the pass this season but it has had a miserable time containing running quarterbacks, having allowed a whopping seven rushing touchdowns to opposing signal-callers. Derek Stingley Jr. erased Amari Cooper in last week's blowout win over the Browns but he'll be hard-pressed to do so against anyone particular in the Ravens multi-pronged aerial attack on Saturday. With TE Mark Andrews trending toward playing trouble abounds for the second level of the Texans defense. Even if Andrews can't go, TE Isaiah Likely figures to go off. Note that Houston is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an upset victory, as is the case here. In fact, the Texans are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 contests following an outright win as a home underdog. They're also 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games following three straight ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss against a division opponent. They're also 35-27 ATS in their last 62 contests following a home loss. Take Baltimore (10*).

Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:30 pm et on Monday.

UPDATE: This game has been moved to Monday. I’ll still be playing the Bills minus the points.

Weather can be the great equalizer at this time of year and with high winds projected for kickoff of this Wild Card matchup on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, there are those that believe that will favor the underdog Steelers who are essentially playing with house money at this point. I think it's going to be a real struggle for Pittsburgh to score points in this game, regardless how the weather turns out. Buffalo somewhat quietly enters this game riding a five-game winning streak including a 21-14 victory in Miami last Sunday night to secure the AFC East division title and the Wild Card home game that goes with it. Unlike previous years, the Bills have been forced to essentially play playoff football for weeks just to get into the postseason. I think that actually works in their favor this year and while the road to the Super Bowl runs through Baltimore in the AFC, I believe the argument can be made that the Bills are playing as well as any team in the conference right now. Pittsburgh is in this game thanks to a three-game stretch at the end of the regular season that saw it face the Bengals (without Joe Burrow among others), Seahawks (who got worse as the season went on) and the Ravens (resting the majority of their starters). Note that the Steelers are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a road win. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 20-14 ATS in its last 34 home contests as a favorite of between 7.5 and 14 points. Take Buffalo (10*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Sunday.

The Rams enter the playoffs playing as well as anyone over the last two months, winners of seven of their last eight games having gone 6-2 ATS over that stretch. They're in their sweet spot on Sunday as they've gone 25-18 ATS in their last 43 road games as an underdog of three points or less. Meanwhile, the Lions are just 12-19 ATS in their last 31 games following a double-digit victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell elected to play his starters in last Sunday's win over the Vikings and paid the price to a certain extent with standout rookie TE Sam LaPorta suffering an injury. He has actually been able to get in limited practice this week and is expected to play but it remains to be seen how effective he can actually be. Regardless, I don't believe this is a favorable matchup for the Lions. I don't think there's anything more dangerous than an experienced team that catches fire late in the season and goes on the road in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The pressure rests squarely on the Lions shoulders in their first home playoff game in three decades. Keep in mind, Detroit played another seemingly massive home game back on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers and was stunned 29-22 as a near-double-digit favorite. Few teams can match Detroit's personnel at the skill positions on offense but Los Angeles is one of them with the emergence of rookie WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams this season. Note that the underdog has gone 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles (10*).

Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I think the Browns can score at will in this game as they look to continue their upward trajectory with veteran QB Joe Flacco under center. Cleveland was a run-first team earlier in the season, rushing the ball more than 30 times in eight of its first nine games. It was a much different story down the stretch, however, as the Browns ran the football at least 30 times just once in their final eight contests. They'll undoubtedly deploy a similar strategy here as the Texans simply don't have the personnel in place to stop the pass. On the flip side, I don't think we can rule out the Texans staying competitive in this game. When they faced the Browns on Christmas Eve they scored 22 points despite accomplishing very little with Case Keenum and Davis Mills running the offense. The Browns defense simply hasn't travelled well this season, allowing at least 22 points in all eight road games with the 'over' cashing at a perfect 8-0 clip. Note that the 'over' is 29-15 in the Texans last 44 home games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. I also strongly believe this game has the potential for 'splash' plays from the two defenses, potentially leading to points on the board. Flacco has admittedly been turnover-prone. C.J. Stroud, while the front-runner for offensive rookie of the year, will be up against a ball-hawking Browns secondary that looks like it will have the services of CB Denzel Ward after he tweaked his knee at practice earlier this week. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

It shouldn't be difficult at all for the Huskies to play the 'nobody believes in us' card in Monday's National Championship showdown against Michigan. You'd be hard-pressed to find many willing to pick Washington to win this game outright, that's for sure. I simply feel it's going to be tough for Michigan to go from winning 'that' game against Alabama in last Monday's Rose Bowl, in overtime no less, to getting right back up for what many believe to be a lesser opponent in Washington. Just think about everything the Wolverines have been through this season. Yes, winning a national title would represent a storybook finish but things don't always go as planned. Washington is no pushover. This is a team that seems to have gotten stronger with each passing game, first upsetting Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game and then defeating Texas in a thriller in the Sugar Bowl last Monday. Note that Washington is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog. Michigan is just 10-13 ATS in its last 23 contests after three straight ATS victories as a favorite. The Wolverines are also a miserable 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games when priced as a favorite of between 3.5 and 7 points, as is the case here. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Bills have been playing playoff football for the last month-plus as they desperately try to work their way into the postseason - a destination that was thought to be a sure thing earlier in the season. The Dolphins have already clinched a playoff spot but would certainly like to avoid tumbling down the AFC pecking order. Of course, their main focus right now is probably on avoiding any more injuries. I simply see two teams heading in opposite directions at this point. The Bills haven't been covering spreads but they haven't needed to to win games as double-digit favorites over the last two weeks. Note that those two ATS defeats do set up Buffalo well as it has gone a long-term 62-38 ATS following consecutive ATS losses. While the Dolphins may appear to be in a solid bounce-back spot off last week's drubbing in Baltimore, history says otherwise. Miami is just 13-23 ATS in its last 36 games following a loss by 21 points or more. Take Buffalo (8*).

NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Seahawks are of course in a must-win situation in Arizona on Sunday and while I'll rarely look to back teams on that premise alone, I do like the way this spot sets up for Seattle (which needs a victory and some help to get into the playoffs). First we'll note that Seattle has owned this series recently, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The road team is also a long-term 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 matchups between these two teams. The Cardinals are in a big letdown spot here after upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia last Sunday. Few expected them to be remotely competitive in that game. Of course, what worked last week may not work this week. The Cardinals ran wild on the Eagles. While the Seahawks haven't exactly played stout run defense, they do get back one of their best run stoppers in LB Jordyn Brooks from an ankle injury this week. Seattle is a long-term 121-100 ATS when coming off a loss and 62-45 ATS after giving up 30 points or more in their last game. The Cards are 7-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent and 15-19 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring 35 points or more in their previous contest. Take Seattle (10*).

NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Vikings defense held up better than most expected over the course of the season with Brian Flores' blitz-happy packages stemming the tide for much of the campaign. That hasn't been the case over the last three games, however. It seems that the book may be out on this incarnation of the Purple People Eaters. Minnesota has been smacked for 27, 30 and 33 points over its last three contests. The Vikes three opponents over that stretch - Cincinnati, Detroit and Green Bay - posted respective passing lines of 29-42-298, 30-40-246 and 25-34-193. According to head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions will play their starters on Sunday, despite being locked into the third spot in the NFC. Regardless who takes the field, I expect them to find success against the Vikes sagging defense. On the flip side, Minnesota will be going for it with a slim chance of reaching the postseason despite its embarrassing home loss against the Packers in primetime last Sunday. Teams haven't even bothered running against the Lions lately and the Vikings don't figure to stray from that strategy (they've run the football just 27 times over their last two games). More passing equates to more clock stoppages. I don't envision Minnesota possessing the football for long stretches on Sunday but I do think it can punch through with some big plays against this struggling Lions secondary. Take the over (10*).

AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

This is obviously a must-win game for the Steelers and they'll also need help in the form of a Dolphins win over the Bills tomorrow night to clinch a playoff spot. While Baltimore will be resting its starters, I'm not convinced it will simply roll over in this divisional revenge game after dropping a 17-10 decision in Pittsburgh earlier this season. While the Ravens won't play the majority of their starters you can be sure they would still like nothing more than to end the Steelers season here. I do think it's in both teams best interest to effectively shorten this game. For the Steelers, they'll be looking to take the crowd out of the game and make this one as boring as possible in my opinion. The last thing they want to do is awaken the sleeping giant in this case. QB Mason Rudolph has been ultra-efficient through his first two starts but regardless who he is facing on the Ravens defense on Saturday, they'll be scheming up to stop him. Note that Baltimore has forced a whopping 10 turnovers over its last three games. For the Ravens, they simply want to get through this game unscathed. Backup QB Lamar Huntley has only appeared in mop-up duty so far this season. Last year, the final scores in his five games of extended action totalled just 19, 30, 16, 26 and 29 points. While the 'over' has cashed in each of Pittsburgh's last four games, the 'under' is a long-term 149-114 when it plays away from home. The 'under' is also 12-4 in the Steelers last 16 games following a victory. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 42-22 in the Ravens last 66 contests after scoring 25 or more points in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Iowa plus the points over Tennessee at 1 pm et on Monday.

Talk about disrespect. Iowa enters the Citrus Bowl sporting a better record than Tennessee and is almost certainly bringing a more complete roster to the game than the Vols, yet here it is installed as a considerable underdog in a game that figures to be low-scoring (a situation that would certainly favor the Hawkeyes). Note that Iowa has reeled off four wins in its last five Bowl appearances (the lone loss came by just three points against Kentucky on this field two years ago to the day) and figures to be in a foul mood after a 26-0 drubbing at the hands of Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Hawkeyes won't have standout TE Erick All or QB Cade McNamara but we know they're not all about offense anyway. I'm confident the Iowa defense will be fired up about facing Vols highly-touted blue chip freshman QB recruit Nico Iamaleava rather than Joe Milton in this matchup. Note that Iowa is an incredible 66-33 ATS in its last 99 games after losing ATS in two of its last three contests, as is the case here. The Hawkeyes are also 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games a neutral field underdog of a touchdown or less. Meanwhile, Tennessee is a miserable 42-61 ATS in its last 103 games following a home victory by 17 points or more. Take Iowa (10*).

AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Cincinnati at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is a massive bounce-back spot for both of these teams with the Bengals coming off a stunning beatdown in Pittsburgh and the Chiefs fresh off a Christmas Day upset at home at the hands of the hated Raiders. The difference here is, Kansas City has the personnel in place to bounce back. Cincinnati, in its current form, does not. The Bengals defense has been a massive disappointment this season, unable to stop the run or the pass. Needless to say, despite its struggles against Las Vegas on Monday, Kansas City has the pieces in place to explode on offense. This is a smash spot for Chiefs TE Travis Kelce in particular. With all signs pointing to Chiefs RB Isaiah Pacheco being good to go as well, we'll give Kansas City the green light on offense on Sunday. It's a different story for the Bengals as they try to squeeze as much as they can out of QB Jake Browning. He has regressed considerably and has yet to truly riff with elite WR Ja'Marr Chase, who is expected back this week. Note that the Chiefs are a long-term 63-47 ATS in their last 110 games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. The Bengals are just 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss by 21 points or more against a divisional opponent, which is the situation they're in on Sunday. Take Kansas City (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a blowup spot for the Eagles offense as they face a weary Cardinals defense that just got tagged for 72 points in its last two games against the 49ers and Bears. Philadelphia is in line to feast offensively after hanging 33 points on the board without breaking a sweat against the Giants on Christmas Day. The Eagles defense is another story entirely. Philadelphia has been vulnerable at times defensively this season but I don't believe Arizona has the personnel in place to take advantage. TE Trey McBride is a bright spot to be sure and he's likely to get his in this particular matchup. Can anyone else pick up the rest of the slack though? I'm not convinced. You would be hard-pressed to find a weaker wide receiving corps than that of the Cards. QB Kyler Murray has made a respectable return but he's going to be in tough against the Eagles pass rush here. This is a game where Philadelphia should be able to jump ahead, much like they did against New York, but successfully salt away the win and cover on this occasion. Take Philadelphia (8*).

NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Saints have defied expectations from a totals perspective, at least on the road in recent weeks as the 'over' has gone 3-1 in their last four games played away from home. This is another promising spot for the Saints offense on the road against what has turned out to be a very beatable Buccaneers defense. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay offense has thrived with Baker Mayfield at the helm. With the Saints missing CB Marshon Lattimore once again, it's all systems go for the Bucs offense again. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series. We haven't seen four straight 'unders' between these two teams previously since 2014-16. In their next matchup on that occasion they combined to score 55 points. The 'over' is a long-term 63-54 with the Saints coming off a road loss, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 46-40 in Tampa Bay's last 86 games following an upset win. Take the over (10*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Cowboys are in a prime bounce-back spot as they return home following consecutive losses in Buffalo and Miami. Detroit on the other hand finds itself in a letdown spot after clinching the NFC North division with last week's win (and cover) in Minnesota. While I fully expect Dallas to crash and burn at some point in the playoffs, I do think it has plenty of upside over the next 2-3 weeks. Note that the Lions are a miserable 12-30 ATS in their last 42 road games following consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Dallas is a perfect 6-0 in its last six home games as a favorite of a touchdown or less. The Cowboys are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take Dallas (10*).

Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Toledo plus the points over Wyoming at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

This line has shifted considerably with the news that Toledo QB Dequan Finn has entered the transfer portal and will miss this game. I still like Toledo's chances of giving Wyoming all it can handle on Saturday afternoon. Note that the Rockets will be out to erase the memory of a disappointing loss in the MAC Championship Game against Miami-Ohio. There's no reason for the disappointment to linger as you could argue the Rockets still ended up with a higher-profile Bowl game. Wyoming closed out the regular season with consecutive blowout wins over Hawaii and Nevada. The Cowboys inability to step up in class turned out to be their downfall in the Mountain West Conference this season as they fell short against the likes of Air Force, Boise State and UNLV. I expect them to similarly have their hands full with a very capable Rockets squad here. Note that Toledo is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games after scoring 14 points or less in its previous contest, as is the case here. Wyoming is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after posting a road victory by 28 points or more. Take Toledo (10*).

My selection is on Ole Miss plus the points over Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Ole Miss has to feel pretty good at itself for reaching the Peach Bowl with a 10-2 record this season. The Rebels only two losses came against Alabama and Georgia. I like their chances of hanging tough against Penn State here. The Nittany Lions closed out the regular season with consecutive blowout wins over Rutgers and Michigan State. Note that Ole Miss is a long-term 63-46 ATS against non-conference opponents and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 Bowl games. Penn State checks in just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games following a shutout victory, as is the case here. On the fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, I look for the Rebels offense to thrive. Take Ole Miss (8*).

My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Notre Dame at 2 pm et on Friday.

I can't imagine this game means a whole lot to Notre Dame as a program. This is a team that wants to be playing for national championships, not second-rate Bowl game victories. The Irish put the clamps on Wake Forest and Stanford in their final two regular season games, rolling to lopsided victories. Their roster on Friday will be a far cry from the one that delivered those knockout blows, however. Oregon State will be missing plenty of key contributors from the regular season as well. I do think the Beavers will be playing with a considerable chip on their shoulder, however, as they look to avoid a three-game losing streak to wrap up the campaign (the 31-7 loss to rival Oregon in their regular season finale certainly stung). Oregon State will be making its fourth straight Bowl appearance having gone 2-1 SU in the previous three. Note that the Beavers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 road games played with extended rest. Take Oregon State (8*).

My selection is on Boston College plus the points over SMU at 11 am et on Thursday.

SMU rolled to a double-digit win in the AAC Championship Game against Tulane but I expect it to have a tougher time getting up for this early start Bowl game against a 6-6 Boston College team. The Eagles will of course have the advantage of playing this game in their own backyard at Fenway Park in Boston. We'll simply fade a Mustangs squad that has reeled off nine straight wins, noting that they're 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after winning four or more games in a row. The Eagles check in 18-12 ATS in their last 30 games after suffering consecutive losses against conference opponents. Take Boston College (8*).

My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Virginia Tech at 2 pm et on Wednesday.

Things didn't look all that promising for Virginia Tech after it got off to a 1-3 start this season. A lopsided win over Pittsburgh on the final day of September gave the Hokies some confidence and from there they scratched and clawed their way to six victories to gain Bowl eligibility. They're being favored by a considerable number of points on Wednesday as Tulane has a number of key contributors sitting out including do-it-all QB Michael Pratt. I like the spot for the Green Wave here, however, as they come in with a sour taste in their mouths after suffering a double-digit loss against SMU in the AAC Championship Game. Virginia Tech routed rival Virginia 55-17 back on November 25th. That's notable as the Hokies are a miserable 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games played away from home after a win by 21 points or more over a conference opponent, as is the case here. Tulane has reached six Bowl games since 2013, going 4-2 with the only double-digit loss coming by 11 points against Nevada in 2020. Take Tulane (8*).

My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Kansas at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

The thinking here is that UNLV isn't ready to hang with the big boys having ended the regular season with a thud in consecutive losses against San Jose State and Boise State (in the Mountain West Conference championship game). I actually think the Runnin' Rebels draw a favorable matchup here with Kansas having yet to win a Bowl game in program history (0-9). The Jayhawks aren't a good defensive team, even if they did close out the regular season with a blowout win over Cincinnati. The Rebels will certainly be comfortable playing indoors at Chase Field in Phoenix, a reasonable facsimile for their own home field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Note that Kansas is a long-term loser at 156-197 ATS while UNLV has gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight non-conference affairs. Take UNLV (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Fresh off a fourth straight win, this one coming on the road against Jacksonville in primetime last week, we'll fade the Ravens here as they face the 49ers in what is being billed as a potential Super Bowl preview. San Francisco is rolling right now. Even last week when it didn't bring its 'A' game defensively, it still laid waste to the Cardinals by 16 points. That marked the Niners sixth straight victory having gone 4-2 ATS over that stretch. San Francisco has been a terrific bet playing with positive momentum as it checks in 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 25 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. The Niners are also 24-12 ATS in their last 36 games following a win. Take San Francisco (8*).

NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Chicago at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

On a surprisingly pleasant Christmas Eve in Chicago weather-wise, we'll call for plenty of points in this NFC matchup. The Cardinals dropped a 45-29 decision at home against the 49ers last week and draw a similar matchup against an improved Bears defense here. With that said, Arizona has scored 24 or more points in consecutive games and it positioned quite well to thrive with the Kyle Murray-to-Trey McBride connection working wonders for the offense. Chicago has the potential to light it up as well as it looks to bounce back following last week's blown opportunity in Cleveland. The Bears didn't keep their foot on the gas against the Browns and ultimately let Cleveland off the hook. Against a reeling Cardinals defense we can anticipate Bears QB Justin Field going off in this matchup. Note that the 'over' is 17-10 in the Bears last 27 games following an ATS loss. The 'over' is also 15-11 in the Cards last 26 games after giving up 40 or more points in their previous contest. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday.

With the Seahawks low-scoring victory over the Eagles on Monday Night Football still fresh in the minds of most bettors, we're working with a relatively low total in Sunday's matchup in Tennessee. The Seahawks will turn back to Geno Smith at quarterback for this contest. There's reason to believe Seattle's offense can thrive with a run-first mindset against a Titans defense that quite simply has no answers against the run right now, allowing 158 and 148 rushing yards in their last two games. Keeping the Titans defense honest with Kenneth Walker at the ground attack should serve to open things up for a red hot D.K. Metcalf and the Seahawks passing game. Speaking of turning back to veteran quarterbacks, the Titans will go back to Ryan Tannehill under center on Sunday. Much like the Seahawks against the Titans defense, Tennessee's ground game should roll against a very beatable Seattle run defense. Tennessee also catches a break with Seattle missing standout rookie CB Devon Witherspoon. Note that the 'over' is 40-23 in the Titans last 63 home games after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 21-10 in Seattle's last 31 games following an upset win at home. Take the over (8*).

NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Easy call for us here as we'll back the underdog Vikings at home after they dropped a hard-fought 27-24 decision in Cincinnati last Saturday while the Lions rolled to a blowout in over the Broncos. Note that the home team has gone 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings in this series. Detroit is just one game removed from a 15-point loss in Chicago and checks in a miserable 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a road favorite. Minnesota on the other hand is 40-24 ATS in its last 64 games as a home underdog and 6-2 ATS in its last eight contests following a loss by six points or less. Take Minnesota (10*).

My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over San Jose State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Chanticleers will be missing a number of key players that are currently in the transfer portal. I think we’re seeing an overreaction from the betting markets, however. The players that will take the field for Coastal Carolina will be desperate to avoid a third straight loss to close out the season. For a winning program like CCU that’s simply unacceptable. San Jose State started the season 1-5 before going on a run. Off an upset win over UNLV on the road we’ll fade the Spartans as they shift into the role of big favorite here. Take Coastal Carolina (8*).

AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

These teams are quite clearly heading in opposite directions right now but I like the Steelers chances of snapping their three-game losing streak as they stare down consecutive road games in Seattle and Baltimore to close out the season. Remember, on November 26th the Steelers went into Cincinnati as road favorites and delivered a 16-10 victory. No Kenny Pickett this time around but Pittsburgh will be essentially facing the same Bengals led by QB Jake Browning but with no WR Ja'Marr Chase or nose tackle D.J. Reader. The Steelers offense has fallen on hard times and will now turn to third-stringer Mason Rudolph at quarterback. While that's not all that encouraging, I don't believe he'll be asked to do too much as the Steelers should be able to run all over the Bengals front line. Note that Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after giving up 30 or more points in its most recent contest while it is also 33-18 ATS in its last 51 home games following a double-digit loss. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Duke plus the points over Troy at 12 noon et on Saturday.

It can be difficult enough to get up for a pre-Christmas Bowl game, especially in today's college football landscape. For Troy, it enters this matchup riding a 10-game winning streak, having been favored in each of its last nine contests (make it 10 straight including this one). Much of the story around this game will be who isn't playing for the Blue Devils. I'm confident we'll see Duke rise to the occasion, however, and salvage the finale of a season that started off so promising back in early September. Remember, the Blue Devils opened the campaign with four straight victories, including a thrilling opening week victory over Clemson. The wheels came off from mid-October to mid-November but Duke didn't quit, managing to split its final four games, losing by a combined five points in the two losses over that stretch. Note that Troy checks in 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 31 or more points in four consecutive games, as is the case here. Duke is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 lined non-conference games and 6-1 ATS in its last seven December Bowl games. Take Duke (10*).

My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Georgia Tech at 6:30 pm et on Friday.

It appeared all hope of reaching a Bowl game was lost for Central Florida following a five-game losing streak that stretched from late-September through the end of October. That slide came in advance of a difficult four-game season-ending stretch that included matchups with Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Houston. Instead of folding the tent, the Golden Knights turned their season around, winning three of those four contests to gain Bowl eligibility. While an appearance in the Gasparilla Bowl may not be all that enticing to some teams, I expect the Knights to relish the opportunity to play a once-unlikely December game. It was an interesting season for Georgia Tech as it staged upset wins over Miami (whether that victory was deserving or not is up for debate) and North Carolina and gave in-state rival Georgia all it could handle in the final week of the regular season. I didn't come away overly impressed by the Yellow Jackets as a whole, however, and believe they'll have a difficult time keeping pace with the Knights offense on Friday. Note that these two teams actually met last season with UCF cruising to a 27-10 win at home. Revenge is generally a dish best served at home and in this particular rematch, the Yellow Jackets will once again travel to Florida. Take Central Florida (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Rams nearly let the Commanders off the hook in Sunday's 28-20 win. They did hold on for the cover - their fourth straight ATS victory. Speaking of winning streaks, the Saints enter this game 'fat and happy' off consecutive blowout home wins over the Panthers and Giants. New York inexplicably elected to abandon its ground game against New Orleans' charmin-soft run defense and ultimately paid the price. I'm confident we'll see the Rams display a more balanced offensive attack here and wear down the New Orleans defense. There's little reason to have much faith in the Saints offense. They've run for 100+ yards just twice in their last six games and have topped 250 passing yards only once over that stretch (in a nine-point loss in Atlanta). Note that the home team is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in this series with none of those eight victories coming by fewer than six points. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Buffalo at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is undoubtedly a game the Cowboys have had circled on their calendars since the start of the season - a long-awaited rematch with the Bills after dropping a 26-15 decision at home against Buffalo back in 2019. That most recent meeting between these two teams four years ago also featured the quarterback matchup of Josh Allen vs. Dak Prescott. Prescott threw for 355 yards in a losing effort on that day. He's been MVP-worthy this season and while Dallas is likely to stumble at some point, I don't see it coming here. Buffalo is fresh off a massive road win over the Chiefs last Sunday. I expect the Bills success to be short-lived, however, noting they haven't strung together consecutive wins since a three-game winning streak from September 17th to October 1st. Note that Buffalo is a long-term 57-90 ATS when coming off two ATS wins in its last three games, as is the case here. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Buffalo at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams delivered 'under' results last Sunday with the Bills upsetting the Chiefs on the road and the Cowboys laying waste to the Eagles at home. No offense is hotter than that of Dallas and QB Dak Prescott in particular. Ordinarily the Bills would pose a stiff defensive test but right now they're far too banged-up, missing key contributors at all three levels. Unless this game gets out of hand and the Cowboys take their foot off the gas, they should be able to get whatever they want on offense on Sunday. Buffalo's offense has been largely disappointing this season and while this is by no means a layup against a fierce Cowboys defense, I do think the Bills can find some success as they continue to build under the guidance of new coordinator Joe Brady. Brady has taken a different approach to the offense than we saw from Ken Dorsey. QB Josh Allen has been running more (effectively) and that's likely to continue against the Cowboys on Sunday. There's certainly a path for the Bills to stay competitive in this must-win game at home and that should lend itself to a high-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon. It's worth noting that the Cowboys haven't posted consecutive 'under' results all season. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I generally anticipate games getting tighter and tighter at this time of year in Cleveland, where the December weather can be unpredictable and the Browns tend to go conservative in nature on offense. The Bears are quietly one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winners of three games in a row ATS and an impressive 6-2-1 ATS over their last nine contests. That's in stark contrast to the Browns, who have dropped two of their last three games both SU and ATS and narrowly avoided coughing up a back-door cover against the Jags (in a game where Jacksonville didn't bring anything close to its 'A' game) last Sunday. Cleveland has inexplicably thrown the ball 89 times in the last two games with Joe Flacco at quarterback. I'm confident fading Flacco and the Browns offense here as the veteran QB is likely to be under duress all afternoon long against a much-improved Bears pass rush. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The underdog has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series and they don't get much uglier than the 1-12 Panthers. As bad as things have gone for Carolina it has actually dropped the cash in consecutive games just once over its last seven contests. Note that the Panthers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games following a double-digit loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Carolina is also 18-7 ATS in its last 25 contests after scoring six points or less in its previous game. The Falcons have won just one of five road games by more than a field goal this season. Take Carolina (8*).

AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Chiefs are a screaming buy right now coming off consecutive losses, both SU and ATS, especially given the nature of last Sunday's home defeat against the Bills in which QB Patrick Mahomes in particular felt his team was shafted by the officials (even though it clearly wasn't). The SU winner has gone a perfect 13-0 ATS in the Patriots previous contests this season and I look for that trend to continue here. New England does have the rest advantage having not played since a week ago Thursday in Pittsburgh, when it staged a 21-18 upset victory. That win was about as ugly as it gets as the Pats gained just north of 300 total yards of offense and made an early lead stand up against Mitchell Trubisky and the Steelers. I don't need to tell you that there's an ocean between facing Trubisky and Mahomes, even with the Chiefs offense struggling at times this season. Note that Kansas City is a long-term 55-36 ATS when playing on the road following a loss. Meanwhile, New England is just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog. Take Kansas City (10*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on New York plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This spot sets up beautifully for the Giants in the sense that they have the ground game to gash the Saints and effectively shorten proceedings as a considerable road underdog. QB Tommy DeVito has grabbed plenty of headlines for his surprisingly efficient play. I don't expect him to be asked to do too much in this spot. The Saints are coming off a blowout win over the hapless Panthers but that victory had more to do with Carolina's inability to finish drives than anything else. Note that New Orleans is just 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season and 4-13 ATS in its last 17 contests following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Giants are a long-term 113-83 ATS on the road against NFC foes and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Take New York (10*).

Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over California at 9:15 pm et on Saturday.

California closed out the regular season with about as big of a win as you can get in Berkeley, defeating rival UCLA 33-7, securing Bowl eligibility in the process. The Bears needed to use everything they had in the tank to earn a Bowl spot, winning their final three games. Of course, they were favored in two of those contests so it's not as if it was a monumental accomplishment. Here, I think Cal is in the wrong place at the wrong time as it runs into a Texas Tech squad that will be eager to make amends for an embarrassing 57-7 loss against Texas in its regular season finale. The Red Raiders picked up some nice wins this season including on the road against Baylor and Kansas and at home against TCU. There were some bad losses in the mix as well but as a whole I was more encouraged by the Red Raiders consistency than I was with the Bears. Note that the loss against Texas sets Texas Tech up well here as it has gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a road loss against a conference opponent. Meanwhile, Cal is a long-term 20-25 ATS in its last 45 games following an upset victory. Take Texas Tech (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

NFL teams don't often get a shot at a 'do-over' but this is about as close as it comes for the Lions as they host the Broncos in a pre-holiday primetime game after laying an egg on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers. Adding fuel to Detroit's fire is the fact that it's coming off another stunning defeat against a divisional opponent in Chicago last Sunday. Perhaps QB Jared Goff's struggles in that contest were predictable as he hasn't travelled well over the course of his career. Here, he and the Lions draw a smash spot against a Broncos team that's 'fat and happy' off a 24-7 rout of the Chargers (who lost QB Justin Herbert to injury in the game) in Los Angeles last Sunday. Denver has improved, that's for sure. The Broncos are in the playoff picture thanks to a 6-1 SU run. I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday, however. Note that Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an upset win and 2-5 ATS in its last seven road contests as an underdog of a touchdown or less. Detroit on the other hand is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a double-digit loss. The last time we saw it in that situation it delivered a 26-14 win over the Raiders in a primetime game on October 30th. Take Detroit (10*).

My selection is on Fresno State plus the points over New Mexico State at 5:45 pm et on Saturday.

Perhaps home field advantage is weighing heavily on this line with New Mexico State playing in its own backyard against reeling Fresno State on Saturday. If anything, I think it's the visiting Bulldogs that have a lot more to prove after their regular season ended with a thud with three straight losses to take it out of Mountain West Conference title contention. Fresno State had everything in front of it after a home win over Boise State on November 4th but it all unravelled from there. The Bulldogs are precisely the type of team I like to back come Bowl season. As much as it's thought that teams have a tendency to quit after a disappointing finish the campaign, once the ball is kicked off, they're often the teams that find their motivation and end up coming out on top. I would lump New Mexico State in the 'happy to be here' category as the Aggies were an afterthought at the start of the season but ended up winning 10 games including an eight-game SU and ATS winning streak from October 4th to November 25th and an upset win over rival New Mexico. Note that Fresno State checks in 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after three straight losses against conference opponents, as is the case here. New Mexico State is a long-term 32-37 ATS in its last 69 games as a favorite. Take Fresno State (8*).

TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points first half over Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

In a battle of backup quarterbacks with both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense, I'll grab the points with the Chargers in the first half. My issue with Los Angeles for the full game is head coach Brandon Staley's track record closing out football games. That's not to mention the fact that Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell will likely be on a short leash here and his presence is one of the main reasons I'm interested in fading Las Vegas. Should Jimmy Garoppolo get another shot at running the offense, I could see the Raiders getting a spark. I do think the Raiders will need to make considerable halftime adjustments to support their offensive line, which is missing a pair of starters due to injury. The Chargers are set up well to feast on that Raiders o-line in the first half. On the flip side, we'll likely see Los Angeles lean heavily on swiss army knife RB Austin Ekeler against a Raiders run defense that has been torched for 4.4 yards per rush this season. QB Easton Stick won't have his top target on the field in WR Keenan Allen but I do like Stick's arm, not to mention his mobility, which he flashed during his years with North Dakota State. Keep in mind, Stick has been with the Chargers since 2019 and has the advantage of being familiar with the playbook, something that O'Connell has seemingly struggled to grasp in his first season as a Raider. Note that Los Angeles is 15-5 ATS in the first half in its last 20 games following a double-digit upset loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Las Vegas is 0-6 ATS in the first half in its last six games when seeking revenge for a loss by seven points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation here. Take Los Angeles first half (10*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Packers are coming off three straight wins including high-profile, high-visibility victories (and covers) over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day and the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football last week. We'll gladly step in and fade Green Bay as it plays on the road laying nearly a touchdown against the Giants on Monday. New York has quietly reeled off consecutive wins and enters this contest off its bye week. There's a path for success for the Giants here as the Packers can't stop the run and New York has a healthy Saquon Barkley capable of delivering a strong performance on Monday. Green Bay's offense has looked sharp over the last couple of weeks but will have to go on without WR Christian Watson. After committing at least one turnover in seven straight games, the Packers have turned in three straight clean performances. I'm thinking that changes here with the Giants defense having forced a whopping 11 turnovers over their last three contests. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Minnesota at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Vikings had their run. I think their season is all but done, even if their even 6-6 record indicates otherwise. They'll get a big boost with the return of WR Justin Jefferson this week but that's been more than factored into this line. Yes, Minnesota enters this game with a chip on its shoulder after consecutive losses but Las Vegas is in precisely the same position. There's no real shame in the Raiders last two losses as they came on the road against the Dolphins and at home against the Chiefs. Note that Las Vegas is 4-2 SU at home this season. The Vikings are an identical 4-2 on the road but just 1-1 with Josh Dobbs as their starting quarterback. I don't think there's much at all separating these two teams yet we're catching a field goal with the Raiders at home. Take Las Vegas (8*).

NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The 49ers have won four straight meetings in this series by a combined score of 120-56. I don't envision the Seahawks closing the gap one bit on Sunday afternoon in Santa Clara. Seattle left it all on the field in last week's 41-35 loss in Dallas. I'm not sure how much Seattle has left in the tank following three straight losses that have dropped it to an even 6-6 on the campaign. QB Geno Smith is among those banged up heading into this matchup. There's a good chance we'll see backup QB Drew Lock at some point in this game. The 49ers have been a streaky team and I look for them to match their season-long three-game ATS winning streak here. This is a team that is still ascending offensively and essentially playing mistake-free football with just one turnover in its last four contests. Defensively, we've already seen the Niners absolutely wreck the Seahawks offense on Thanksgiving Night. Note that the Niners are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games against divisional opponents and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This game is set up on a platter for the Browns as they return home off consecutive blowout losses in Denver and Los Angeles, even if the latter featured a rather misleading final score. Jacksonville is playing on a short week after getting punched in the mouth by the Joe Burrow-less Bengals on Monday night. QB Trevor Lawrence is banged up. Whether he plays or not remains up in the air but regardless, this is a difficult matchup for the Bengals offense against a Browns defense that surely has a bad taste in its mouth. Cleveland may turn to QB Joe Flacco again on Sunday. He actually provided some stability to the offense last week against the Rams. I do think we'll see the Browns go back to the basics this Sunday, letting their ground game and defense do the heavy lifting. Jacksonville is dealing with key injuries in its secondary that just might open the door for Flacco and the Browns passing attack to produce just enough big plays to finish the job. Take Cleveland (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers are playing with absolutely nothing to lose down the stretch. Frank Reich was already fired. Most have already given up on QB Bryce Young, at least in his rookie season. They're coming off five consecutive losses, having gone 1-3-1 ATS over that stretch. I think they rise to the occasion in this revenge spot, however, noting that the Panthers are a long-term 41-23 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here. The Saints are a miserable 1-8 ATS as a favorite this season. I simply feel they're regressed into a team that simply isn't built for the fast track at the Superdome. Note that New Orleans is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games played indoors, including an ugly 1-7 ATS mark this season. The Saints check in having allowed 100+ rushing yards in seven straight games and I think that opens the door for the Panthers to effectively shorten proceedings on Sunday, and stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take Carolina (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday.

The long 'under' streak in this storied rivalry came to an end in 2021 and last year's game found its way 'over' the total as well thanks to overtime (only 20 points were scored in regulation time). While we're dealing with an incredibly low posted total for the 2023 edition, I'm still willing to take a flyer on the 'under'. Between these two teams during the regular season we saw six shutouts pitched one way or another. Both teams actually opened up their offenses a little more this year, electing to sling it around the field a little bit rather than strictly operating option-based attacks. With that being said, Army comes into this game on a three-game winning streak and it essentially took passing out of its vocabulary in those three contests, connecting on just 8-of-17 throws for 119 yards. Last time out against Coastal Carolina, the Black Knights attempted just two passes (and didn't have a completion). This has all the makings of a chess match. Navy showed incredible patience over the course of the season, relying on its knack for turning over its opponents while methodically wearing down the opposition on offense. Even though the Midshipmen did throw it a lot more than we're accustomed to seeing, they still topped out at 163 passing yards and that came against an FCS opponent in Wagner. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

Talk about an ugly Thursday night matchup but we can only bet what's in front of us and I like the way this one sets up for the Steelers. Pittsburgh dropped a lopsided decision against the Cardinals at home last Sunday. Some were stunned by that defeat. I wasn't. The Cardinals actually have a lot going for them right now - the same can't be said for Bill Bellichick's Patriots. The Pats are essentially jockeying for draft positioning at this point and in pretty good shape in that regard. Rhamondre Stevenson's presence was one of the only things that would have led me to believe New England could stay competitive in this game but now he's sidelined as well. For the Steelers, we'll see Mitchell Trubisky under center. That's a drop-off from Kenny Pickett to be sure, but not an insurmountable one. The Steelers will once again lean on their ground game and defense to win this game anyway. Note that Pittsburgh has yet to lose consecutive games SU or ATS this season. They'll avoid that fate here as well. Take Pittsburgh (8*).