My selection is on Seattle plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm ET on Sunday.

The Seahawks enter this matchup fresh off their bye week, which provides a valuable opportunity to regroup and address some of the issues that have plagued them this season. Despite their 4-5 record, Seattle has been competitive in most games, with three of their losses decided by six points or fewer. The Seahawks should benefit from the extra rest and preparation as they aim to avenge their earlier loss to the 49ers.

San Francisco is riding high after a narrow 23-20 victory in Tampa last week, but that game highlighted some inconsistencies, particularly on offense, as they struggled to convert opportunities into touchdowns. The 49ers' defense has been solid but not invulnerable, as evidenced by allowing 20 or more points in four of their last five games.

Seattle has a history of playing divisional games closely, and with the added motivation of staying alive in the playoff hunt, expect them to put forth a strong effort here. Look for the Seahawks to keep this one close and potentially pull off the upset.

Take Seattle plus the points. Projected score: San Francisco 24, Seattle 23.

My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Minnesota at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Vikings boast an impressive 7-2 record, but they’ve shown some vulnerabilities despite their success. Last week’s 12-7 road win over Jacksonville highlighted their offensive struggles, as they managed only one touchdown against a Jaguars defense that isn't among the league's best.

Tennessee, at 2-7, has endured a rough season, but its defense remains a bright spot. The Titans rank first in the league in total yards allowed per game, which gives them a solid foundation to slow down Minnesota’s offense. On the offensive side, while inconsistent, Tennessee has enough playmakers to take advantage of a Vikings defense that has been exposed at times, particularly in the secondary.

This game sets up as a classic “buy-low” spot for Tennessee, especially with Minnesota potentially looking ahead to tougher matchups down the stretch. The Titans’ ability to control the tempo with their defense makes them an appealing play to cover the spread in this spot.

Take Tennessee plus the points. Projected score: Minnesota 20, Tennessee 17.

My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and New England at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Rams saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 23-15 loss at home against Miami on Monday night. Despite that result, Los Angeles’ offense has shown flashes of potency, averaging over 25 points per game during their recent winning streak. Their defense, however, remains a concern, ranking 22nd in points allowed per game and 24th in total yards allowed, which has often forced their offense into high-scoring contests.

New England's offense has been a work in progress this season, but rookie QB Drake Maye has injected some energy into the lineup. The Patriots are coming off a 19-3 win in Chicago, where their defense stole the show. However, facing a more dynamic Rams offense, New England may find itself in a higher-scoring affair. It's worth noting that the Patriots' defense has struggled at times against versatile offenses, which the Rams can exploit.

While New England's last two games have stayed under the total, this matchup presents a different dynamic. The Rams' ability to score and their defensive vulnerabilities set the stage for a more back-and-forth affair, particularly with Maye looking to build on his recent performances.

Projected score: Los Angeles 27, New England 23.

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Miami at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Dolphins face a tough spot playing on a short week after traveling across the country following their 23-15 win over the Rams. While Miami has been one of the league's top offenses, the travel and quick turnaround could disrupt their rhythm, especially against a team with the defensive capabilities to limit their big plays. The Raiders, on the other hand, have had two weeks to prepare after their bye, which should help them get healthier and more focused.

Las Vegas may not have the record to show it, but they've been competitive in some of their losses, and the extra time off should allow them to make the necessary adjustments. They also have some motivation after getting blown out by the Bengals prior to their break. With Miami coming off a long road trip and playing on short rest, this game sets up well for a closer contest than expected, and I believe Las Vegas can cover the spread. A final score projection is Miami 23, Las Vegas 20.

NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Bears have struggled offensively in recent weeks, but their defense has been a bright spot, allowing 21 points or fewer in eight of their nine contests this season. That consistency gives them a fighting chance against a Green Bay team averaging 25.6 points per game, good for ninth in the NFL. While the Packers' offense has been productive, their most recent outing saw them limited to just 14 points in a loss to Detroit.

Green Bay has dominated this series over the years, including a 17-9 victory in their most recent meeting last January. However, this game will be played at Soldier Field, where the Bears will look to leverage their home-field advantage. Notably, all four of Chicago's wins this season have come at home, which could bolster their confidence in this critical divisional matchup.

While weather often plays a factor in November games in Chicago, the forecast calls for relatively mild temperatures and light winds on Sunday, which should make for ideal playing conditions. This could help both offenses find a bit of rhythm, though Chicago’s defense will still be a tough test for the Packers.

If the Bears can get any sort of spark offensively, they have a real shot at covering the spread or even pulling off the upset.

Take Chicago plus the points. Projected score: Green Bay 20, Chicago 17.

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Jacksonville and Detroit at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

Jacksonville is coming off a 12-7 home loss to the Vikings, which came after they lost QB Trevor Lawrence to injury. The Jaguars have struggled offensively, ranking 21st in points per game and 24th in total yards per game this season. Detroit, on the other hand, is 8-1, but while their offense has been explosive, their defense has been solid, ranking eighth in points allowed per game (19.0).

The Lions haven't been dominant defensively, but they have been effective enough to keep teams from putting up huge numbers. Given Jacksonville's recent offensive struggles and the potential for a more conservative game plan with backup quarterback play, this one has the makings of a low-scoring affair. While Detroit's offense can put up points, the Jaguars' defense has shown they can keep games close, and Detroit's defense has been good at limiting damage.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Detroit 24, Jacksonville 13.

My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and BYU at 10:15 pm ET on Saturday.

While Kansas has seen high-scoring outcomes recently, including six consecutive 'over' results, this trend may not continue against a BYU team that has proven to be comfortable in lower-scoring, defensively focused games. Kansas’ offensive numbers have been boosted in part by matchups with less disciplined defenses, and BYU's defense presents a significant upgrade in opposition. BYU has allowed 24 or fewer points in three of its last four and seven of its nine games overall this season, showcasing the unit's consistency and ability to control the pace, which is vital against a Kansas team looking to push the tempo.

BYU's offense, though efficient, is typically conservative and likely to employ a slower tempo to limit Kansas' scoring opportunities. In a matchup that pits BYU’s defensive strength against Kansas' recent offensive outputs, a lower total feels like a logical outcome, as the Cougars’ defensive schemes should keep Kansas from establishing a comfortable rhythm.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: BYU 27, Kansas 20.

AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UAB and Memphis at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

UAB has shown signs of offensive improvement, scoring 107 points over the last three games after a period of struggles. This uptick in scoring, coupled with Memphis' potent offense, suggests that both teams could contribute to a higher-scoring affair. UAB has averaged just over 30 points in its last three games, which is a stark contrast to its earlier season struggles, and Memphis has consistently been a high-scoring team, averaging 30+ points per game and ranking inside the top-30 in total points.

Memphis’ offense, led by an efficient passing attack, should have success against UAB’s defense, which has struggled to stop explosive plays. UAB’s recent offensive resurgence, along with Memphis’ ability to score in bunches, makes this matchup ripe for a higher total, especially when factoring in that last year's meeting ended in a 45-21 blowout in favor of Memphis, which shows these two teams can combine for significant points.

Despite Memphis posting an 'under' in their last game, the Tigers have regularly hit the over this season, and UAB’s offensive improvement gives a strong indication this could be a high-scoring game. Take the over. Projected score: Memphis 41, UAB 28.

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Old Dominion plus the points over James Madison at 4 pm ET on Saturday.

James Madison has been strong this season, but their blowout victories over Southern Miss and Georgia State don't fully capture the challenges they've faced against tougher opponents. While the Dukes' win over North Carolina earlier in the season garnered significant attention, they may not be as invincible as their record suggests. Old Dominion, despite their 4-5 record, has shown resilience, particularly during their three-game winning streak before their loss to Appalachian State. The Monarchs' defense and ability to stay competitive in close games make them dangerous underdogs in this matchup.

Old Dominion's ability to stay within reach of tough teams and their balanced offensive attack should allow them to cover the spread, and I see them winning outright in what should be a competitive, hard-fought game.

Take Old Dominion. Projected score: Old Dominion 27, James Madison 24.

C-USA Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Western Kentucky at 12 pm ET on Saturday.

While Western Kentucky has had success at home, including their recent win over New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech has been competitive in several of its losses this season. The Bulldogs may have struggled with consistency, especially on the road, but they’ve been competitive in close games and have the potential to cover the spread here, especially considering Western Kentucky’s vulnerability to letting teams hang around.

Additionally, Louisiana Tech’s offense has the capability to put up points, and with the spread at +9 or more, they may be able to keep it within a one-score game or possibly even pull off a surprise upset. Western Kentucky's defensive struggles in past games could be a concern here, especially if Louisiana Tech can execute offensively.

Look for a hard-fought game with Louisiana Tech staying within the number, potentially leading to a close finish.

Take Louisiana Tech. Projected score: Western Kentucky 31, Louisiana Tech 27.

Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Arizona at 10:15 pm ET on Friday.

Both Houston and Arizona have shown struggles on offense this season, making the 'under' an appealing option in this matchup. Houston has been particularly strong defensively, allowing 20 points or fewer in four of their last five games, including a 24-19 win over Kansas State in their most recent outing. Their defense has been the cornerstone of their success, and they’ll look to slow down Arizona's offense, which has been inconsistent all year. Arizona, on the other hand, has been struggling on both sides of the ball, especially after their humbling 56-12 loss to Central Florida. The Wildcats have lost five straight and are averaging fewer than 20 points per game over their last few contests, a trend that doesn’t inspire confidence in a high-scoring affair.

Both teams are also ranked outside the top-100 in points per game this season, further suggesting that this will be a low-scoring battle. With Houston likely focusing on defense and Arizona struggling to find consistency offensively, it’s reasonable to expect a game where both teams struggle to break 20 points. Given the total is set in the mid-40's, I’m expecting this game to stay well under that number.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Houston 21, Arizona 14.

NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm ET on Thursday.

The Commanders have been involved in some high-scoring games recently, with the 'over' hitting in each of their last two outings. However, Washington’s offensive output has often relied on sporadic big plays, and with both teams ranking in the top half of the league in total yards and points allowed, this matchup is likely to showcase defensive strengths. The Eagles, on a five-game winning streak, have shown defensive dominance, especially in their recent 34-6 rout of Dallas, where they effectively limited a normally potent offense, albeit with the Cowboys missing Dak Prescott.

With Philadelphia’s defense playing at a high level and underdog Washington likely leaning on its defense to keep the game close, scoring opportunities may be limited. Additionally, divisional matchups tend to be tightly contested affairs, often leading to lower-scoring games as both teams make conservative adjustments. Expect a controlled pace and fewer explosive plays, favoring the 'under.'

Projected score: Philadelphia 24, Washington 17.

My selection is on East Carolina minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm ET on Thursday.

East Carolina, coming off an impressive 49-14 victory over Florida Atlantic, has shown improvement on both sides of the ball. This win showcased the Pirates' ability to execute offensively and clamp down defensively, helping them advance to 5-4 on the season. With the opportunity to inch closer to bowl eligibility, the Pirates will be motivated to perform well against a Tulsa team that has struggled, particularly on defense. East Carolina’s offense, which has recently found rhythm, is well-positioned to exploit Tulsa’s weaknesses.

Tulsa, at 3-6, is reeling after a heavy 59-21 loss to UAB. Defensive lapses have plagued the Golden Hurricane, and facing a surging East Carolina team presents another difficult challenge. The lofty pointspread reflects East Carolina’s current momentum and Tulsa’s struggles to keep up with high-powered offenses. Given the Pirates' recent form, they have a good chance to not only win but to cover this spread comfortably.

Projected score: East Carolina 45, Tulsa 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Miami-Ohio at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

Kent State’s offensive struggles were evident in last week's 41-0 shutout loss against Ohio, continuing a season-long trend for a team that has yet to find the win column. Kent State has been ineffective in generating scoring opportunities, averaging just 15.1 points per game, and will now face a Miami-Ohio defense that has been particularly reliable this season. Miami-Ohio has held opponents to 21 points or fewer in each of its last five games, including last week’s 27-21 road win over Ball State.

Miami-Ohio's offense has been steady but unspectacular, often relying on its defense to secure wins. Kent State's offensive limitations should allow Miami’s defense to control the pace and keep scoring in check. Given these factors, this game projects as a lower-scoring affair. Take the 'under.' Projected score: Miami-Ohio 27, Kent State 10.

My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Toledo at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

While Toledo has a reputation as a high-powered offensive team, recent games have shown a more moderate scoring output. The Rockets are coming off their bye week after a close 29-28 win over Eastern Michigan, and despite their offensive potential, they've scored fewer than 30 points in five of their last six games. Central Michigan, on the other hand, has struggled significantly on offense, managing just 20 points combined over its last two games and extending its losing streak to four.

The Chippewas’ ongoing offensive woes, combined with Toledo's recent trend of lower-scoring results, suggest this matchup could turn into a grind. Central Michigan's offensive limitations and Toledo's tempered scoring pace set this one up well to stay 'under' the total. Take the 'under.' Projected score: Toledo 27, Central Michigan 17.

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday.

The Jets enter this matchup off a confidence-boosting win over Houston on Halloween Night, showcasing a defense that has kept them competitive, even amid recent coaching changes. With a renewed focus under interim leadership, the Jets’ defensive unit has continued to shine, setting a solid foundation for the team. Against an Arizona offense that’s performed well lately but benefited from favorable matchups, the Jets’ defense has the edge to stifle big plays and create key stops.

Arizona is on a three-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread but now faces a tougher defensive challenge than recent opponents. New York’s improving offense, meanwhile, gives the Jets the ability to take advantage of Arizona’s vulnerabilities on defense. In a game where the Jets’ balanced approach can shine, New York looks set to cover the spread with a solid all-around performance.

Take the Jets minus the points. Prediction: Jets 23, Cardinals 16.

My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Kansas City at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

Both teams are coming off three straight 'over' results, but there are strong reasons to expect a lower-scoring game in this divisional matchup. Denver’s offense has been inconsistent, struggling to find consistency, and despite Kansas City’s recent offensive output, they are not an offense that thrives on high-scoring affairs against divisional rivals like the Broncos. The most recent meeting between these two teams saw just 33 points, highlighting the tendency for these games to play out with a lower total, especially when considering their familiarity with each other’s systems.

Additionally, Kansas City is coming off a short week after a Monday night overtime win over Tampa Bay. The quick turnaround could limit the Chiefs' ability to be as explosive as they’ve been in recent games. Denver’s defense has been effective at limiting big plays, and with Kansas City’s offensive rhythm potentially disrupted by the short week, it’s likely that this game stays under.

Take the under.
Score prediction: Denver 17, Kansas City 20.

NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Saints enter this game with new leadership following the firing of head coach Dennis Allen after last week’s close loss to Carolina. Coaching changes often bring a jolt of energy, and with New Orleans seeking redemption in a divisional matchup, they’re well-positioned to keep this contest close. While Atlanta’s offense has been fairly explosive, New Orleans has the defensive depth to disrupt key plays and limit big gains. In a matchup where both sides know each other well, the Saints' renewed focus should help them stay competitive.

Atlanta, fresh off a win over Dallas, will be confident but must prepare for an extra-motivated New Orleans squad looking to improve after their early-season two-point loss to the Falcons. Even with the Falcons’ offensive firepower, divisional games tend to tighten up, and the Saints should capitalize on any defensive opportunities to keep it close.

Take New Orleans plus the points. Prediction: Saints 24, Falcons 23.

AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Colts, though coming off back-to-back losses, have the experience of veteran Joe Flacco under center, which could bring stability and playmaking ability against a talented Bills defense. Despite Buffalo’s recent four-game winning streak, the Bills failed to cover the spread last week in a narrow three-point win over Miami. The loss of rookie WR Keon Coleman due to a wrist injury leaves a noticeable gap in Buffalo’s offensive depth, which could affect their ability to stretch the field. While Indianapolis also lost Michael Pittman to injury, his lack of production this season means his absence may not be as significant.

With Flacco leading the offense, Indianapolis should be able to remain competitive, especially with Buffalo’s offensive depth potentially compromised. The Colts' defense has shown the ability to keep games close, and home-field advantage could play a role here in allowing them to stay within the spread.

Take Indianapolis. Prediction: Bills 23, Colts 21.

NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Tampa Bay at 1 pm ET.

Both teams are on notable 'over' streaks: the 'over' has cashed in three consecutive games for the 49ers, while the Buccaneers have seen six straight games go over the total. Despite these trends, the setup here points to a lower-scoring outcome. San Francisco comes off a bye, which allows their defense time to regroup, and they’ll get RB Christian McCaffrey back, who can contribute to long, clock-controlling drives. The Niners' ability to sustain possessions on the ground could slow the game's pace and reduce Tampa Bay’s offensive opportunities.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay enters this game on a short week after a physical loss in Kansas City, and they’re still missing several key offensive contributors. Their injuries, combined with the fatigue factor, make it difficult to envision a strong scoring output against San Francisco’s disciplined defense. This challenge is compounded by the 49ers’ preparation and ability to make adjustments coming off the bye.

Take the under.
Score prediction: San Francisco 23, Tampa Bay 16.

My selection is on Utah plus the points over BYU at 10:15 pm ET on Saturday.

Utah has struggled this season with a 4-4 record and four straight losses, but the Utes will be highly motivated for this rivalry matchup, the first meeting between the teams since 2021. Despite their recent setbacks, Utah’s defense has the talent to give BYU’s high-powered offense trouble. Containing BYU’s offense will be a challenge, but Utah’s defense, known for its toughness, has the ability to keep this game close, especially in a low-scoring, physical game. The Utes will be up for the challenge and should be able to limit big plays.

BYU, ranked in the top-10, comes in with an 8-0 record and a 37-24 win over Central Florida, but they’ve yet to face a team like Utah that can match up physically. While BYU is the favorite, the Cougars may have trouble pulling away in a low-scoring game, and the break since their last game could affect their rhythm. Utah’s defense, combined with their motivation, should keep this game tight, and it could come down to the wire.

Take Utah plus the points. Prediction: BYU 19, Utah 18.

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Fresno State minus the points over Air Force at 9:45 pm ET on Saturday.

Fresno State, coming off a narrow home loss to Hawaii, will be focused and motivated to bounce back as they continue their push toward bowl eligibility. With four wins against FBS opponents, Fresno State has proven they can compete effectively on both sides of the ball, and they’re well-positioned to avoid a letdown in this spot. Their offense has been generally efficient, while their defense has shown the ability to keep teams in check. Given these factors, Fresno State's balanced approach and execution make them a strong play with several matchup advantages over Air Force.

Air Force, at 1-7 and coming off a decisive loss to Army, has struggled to find consistency on offense, and their defense has been overmatched in many games this season. Fresno State’s solid offensive unit should capitalize on Air Force’s defensive gaps, while their defense is well-equipped to contain Air Force's run-heavy attack. Fresno State has the edge in motivation, preparation, and overall performance, making them a solid pick to cover the spread.

Take Fresno State. Prediction: Fresno State 34, Air Force 20.

C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Liberty minus the points over Middle Tennessee State at 1 pm ET on Saturday.

Liberty comes into this game off a disappointing 31-21 loss to Jacksonville State, but this matchup presents a strong opportunity for a bounce-back performance. At 5-2, the Flames have been solid this season, and despite losing two straight games, they still have a much stronger overall team. Their offense, led by quarterback Kaidon Salter, has the potential to put up big numbers, and their defense has been solid enough to control a Middle Tennessee offense that has struggled at times. Despite the game being played in Middle Tennessee, Liberty’s high-powered attack and defense should be too much for a Blue Raiders team that sits at 3-6 and has shown inconsistencies throughout the season.

Middle Tennessee is coming off a 20-13 win over UTEP but has struggled to generate consistent offensive production this season. They have been plagued by turnovers and inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, which will be problematic against a talented Liberty defense. While the Blue Raiders have been competitive, they are outmatched here, even at home. Liberty should control this game and create enough separation to cover the spread, particularly given their offensive depth and strong recent track record in these types of matchups.

Take Liberty. Prediction: Liberty 38, Middle Tennessee State 20.

ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the under between Miami and Georgia Tech at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

Miami is coming off a 53-31 win over Duke, which was a high-scoring affair, but they’ve been more balanced offensively this season, and their defense has been solid overall, especially against teams that struggle to consistently move the ball. The Hurricanes’ defense has had some slip-ups but should be able to contain Georgia Tech’s offense, which has struggled to generate consistent points since late September. Miami’s ability to control the tempo of the game should slow down Georgia Tech’s attack and keep the game under the total.

Georgia Tech’s offense started the season strong, but it has struggled significantly since late September. Their most recent game was a 21-6 loss to Virginia Tech, and they’ve had difficulty putting together sustained scoring drives in recent weeks. While their defense has been decent, they simply lack the offensive firepower to push the score into a higher range. With both teams emphasizing defense and Georgia Tech’s continued offensive struggles, this matchup should stay under the total.

Take the under. Prediction: Miami 28, Georgia Tech 14.

My selection is on New Mexico plus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm ET on Friday.

New Mexico, coming off a high-scoring 49-45 loss to Wyoming, has shown the ability to move the ball offensively, despite their 3-6 record. While their defense has struggled at times, the Lobos’ offense has been productive, particularly in the passing game, and could find success against a San Diego State defense that has been inconsistent this season. New Mexico has the potential to keep the game competitive by exploiting weaknesses in the Aztecs' defense. If the Lobos can continue to put up points, they should be able to stay within striking distance—and possibly pull off an upset.

San Diego State, sitting at 3-5 and coming off a 56-24 loss at Boise State, has been struggling offensively and has been prone to defensive breakdowns. While the Aztecs have historically been strong, their current form suggests they may have trouble handling New Mexico’s offensive attack. The Lobos have a good chance of keeping this one tight or even coming out on top, especially given San Diego State's recent struggles. The high total of 66.5 points suggests a potentially high-scoring affair, which could favor the underdog.

Take New Mexico. Prediction: New Mexico 31, San Diego State 28.

My selection is on Rice plus the points over Memphis at 8 pm ET on Friday.

Rice, coming off a 24-10 upset win over Navy and a solid defensive showing, enters this matchup with momentum. At 3-6, Rice has been inconsistent on offense but is beginning to show signs of improvement on defense, particularly in holding Navy’s run-heavy offense to just 10 points. Their defense, which has been more disciplined in recent games, could help keep this one close if they manage to contain Memphis’s offensive weapons. While Rice’s offense may still struggle at times, a methodical approach could control the tempo and limit Memphis’s opportunities to score.

Memphis, meanwhile, is 7-2 and coming off a high-scoring 44-36 loss to UTSA, which highlighted both their offensive prowess and defensive vulnerabilities. The Tigers have a strong, balanced offense led by quarterback Seth Henigan, who can be explosive but has also shown inconsistency against well-prepared defenses. Defensively, Memphis has allowed opponents to keep pace, and their recent struggles to contain UTSA indicate they could be susceptible to letting Rice stay within reach. With Memphis likely focused on bouncing back, Rice’s improved defense gives them a good chance to keep the game close in what could be a tighter matchup than expected.

Take Rice. Prediction: Memphis 28, Rice 24.

My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Iowa at 9 pm ET on Friday.

UCLA, coming off a 27-20 upset win at Nebraska to snap a five-game losing streak, enters this game with renewed confidence. The Bruins have been inconsistent this season, particularly on defense, but their defense has improved significantly in recent weeks. With quarterback Ethan Garbers leading the offense, UCLA has the ability to sustain drives and capitalize on Iowa’s defensive weaknesses. Garbers' poise and ability to manage the game could be key in keeping the offense balanced, and UCLA will be motivated to build on their recent win in front of a home crowd at the Rose Bowl.

Iowa, at 6-3, comes off a dominant 42-10 win over Wisconsin, and their offense, led by quarterback Brendan Sullivan, has been much better than expected this season. However, Iowa could be in for a letdown as a road favorite after their strong performance against Wisconsin, and their tendency to rely on ball control could be disrupted by UCLA's improved defense. While the Hawkeyes have been solid offensively, their success has often relied on dictating tempo, and UCLA's ability to disrupt that flow could keep this game close. The Bruins will be motivated to prove themselves on their home field and can capitalize if Iowa doesn’t bring the same intensity as they did last week.

Take UCLA. Prediction: Iowa 27, UCLA 24.

TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' in the NFL game between Cincinnati and Baltimore at 8:15 PM ET on Thursday.

This Thursday night divisional matchup features two familiar opponents in Cincinnati and Baltimore, both coming off dominant blowout wins on Sunday—Cincinnati beating Las Vegas 42-19 and Baltimore crushing Denver 41-10. While both offenses have been explosive recently, I’m expecting a much different pace this week. The first meeting between these two teams this season was an incredibly high-scoring affair, with Baltimore edging out Cincinnati 41-38 in a shootout. However, I don’t expect that kind of scoring in this matchup. Divisional games on a short week tend to be more methodical, with teams focusing on controlling the ball and avoiding turnovers. Both defenses have been playing better lately, with Cincinnati improving its overall defensive play and Baltimore’s defense being strong up front, although vulnerable in the secondary.

Given the familiarity between the two teams, I expect a more cautious, grind-it-out game this time around. With both teams likely to play more conservatively and focus on controlling the tempo, I see this game staying well under the total. Take the under (10*).

AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida Atlantic plus the points over East Carolina at 8:00 PM ET on Thursday.

Florida Atlantic has struggled this season with a 2-6 record, including a disappointing 44-21 home loss to South Florida last week, but they have shown flashes of competitive play and have the potential to keep this game closer than expected. While their defense has had issues, particularly against high-scoring teams, East Carolina has been inconsistent at times, especially against teams that can push them on both sides of the ball. The Pirates are coming off a dominant 56-34 win over Temple, but they've been up and down all year, and their defense is susceptible to giving up points when forced into shootouts. FAU's offense has shown signs of life, and their ability to move the ball through the air and on the ground should keep them within striking distance.

East Carolina is favored at home, but their record of 4-4 reflects their own struggles against teams with solid balance. FAU has the talent to hang around in this game, and with East Carolina’s defensive vulnerabilities, Florida Atlantic should be able to keep it close. With East Carolina coming off a high-scoring win and facing a team that can stretch their defense, I see Florida Atlantic staying within the number. Take Florida Atlantic (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Ohio and Kent State at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

This series has produced some high-scoring games in recent years with all five matchups dating back to 2018 eclipsing the total we're working with on Wednesday. Kent State is obviously down bad this season, having yet to win a game. If it is going to end that losing streak with a stunning upset on Wednesday it will need to get its offense rolling. The good news is, we've seen the Golden Flashes offense thrive at home previously this season, scoring 33 and 35 points in losses to Eastern Michigan and Ball State. The problem here is that Kent State will need to keep Ohio's offense under wraps and that figures to be a tall task with the Bobcats offense seemingly getting better each week with dual-threat QB Parker Navarro taking over at times. Ohio figures to be able to run its offense without much resistance here, also noting that Kent State has drawn as few as 7,322 fans to its home games this season. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this contest. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with underdog Kent State as it hosts Ohio on Wednesday. The Golden Flashes remain winless on the season while the Bobcats check in off consecutive wins. Note that you would have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the last time Ohio defeated Kent State by 20+ points on the road. We've seen the Flashes hang tough at home in narrow losses to Eastern Michigan and Ball State earlier in the campaign. As they look to avenge a 25-point defeat in this matchup in Athens last year, we'll back the underdog Flashes at home. Take Kent State (8*).

My selection is on Ball State plus the points over Miami-Ohio at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

Ball State has strung together a few good games in a row after a rough start to the campaign. The Cardinals check in 2-1 over their last three contests including an upset win over Northern Illinois last time out. They have the benefit of hosting the latest instalment of the 'Red Bird Rivalry' on Tuesday and I look for them to give the favored Redhawks all they can handle. Miami-Ohio checks in off three straight wins with all three victories coming by double-digit margins. That's a big reason why we're looking at a double-digit pointspread in this matchup as well. I think we'll see some regression from the Redhawks offense in this game after they produced 38, 30 and 46 points in their last three contests. That should lent itself to a closer game than most are anticipating on Tuesday night in Muncie. Take Ball State (8*).

My selection is on Central Michigan plus the points over Bowling Green at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the Chippewas as they look to bounce back from three straight losses when they host the Falcons in Mount Pleasant. The Chips were drilled 46-7 in a road game against Miami-Ohio last time out. They had been playing reasonably well prior to that contest, going 2-2 over their previous four games with the two losses coming by a combined six points. Bowling Green is in a clear letdown spot following a big road win over Toledo in the Battle of I-75 on October 26th. The Falcons pushed Penn State and Texas A&M on the road early in the campaign but I think those results are still lingering and leave them overvalued at this point. Remember, this is also a team that only defeated Akron by seven points earlier this season. I believe this line will prove too high. Take Central Michigan (8*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I like the bounce-back spot for the Bears off last Sunday's heart-breaking loss in Washington. Chicago has yet to notch a road victory this season but it's been right there in all three previous tilts away from home. I think we learned a lot about the Bears in last Sunday's near-miss - mostly positive. The Cardinals rallied for a win in Miami last week, taking advantage of a listless Dolphins defense. The Arizona offense has been good in fits and starts with Kyler Murray making a ton of plays with his legs to keep the chains moving. I'm not sold on him doing it against an elite Bears defense on Sunday, however. I see this as a game where Murray gets outshined by rookie Caleb Williams and the Bears finally get their road victory. Take Chicago (10*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As far as losses go, I think the Raiders narrow defeat at the hands of the division-rival Chiefs last Sunday was a galvanizing one. Las Vegas was finally able to move the football a little bit with Gardner Minshew under center and I think it is well-positioned to build on that performance against a down-trodden Bengals squad on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. The Bengals are saying all the right things, indicating that they believe they can still salvage a season that is clearly spiralling down the drain following last week's blowout loss against Philadelphia. I simply feel they're going to have an incredibly difficult time getting up for the visiting Raiders. Las Vegas can play some defense while its offense should welcome the opportunity to face an opponent that has rarely been able to get a hand on opposing quarterbacks. We'll grab all the points we can get with the Raiders in a game that I project to go down to the wire. Take Las Vegas (8*).

My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Last Sunday's trip to Santa Clara was always going to be a difficult one for the Cowboys. They fell short, turning this into a virtual must-win game against the Falcons in Atlanta. I like the way it sets up with the Falcons coming off another win over the Buccaneers. Severely short-handed on offense, Tampa Bay was unable to keep up with Atlanta, noting that Kirk Cousins has turned in his best two games of the season in that particular matchup. While Dallas continues to struggle defensively and sorely misses the presence of Micah Parsons among others, I think this is a spot where the Cowboys can rise up and have their offense lead them to a victory. There's nothing overly intimidating about the Falcons defense. Even the listless Panthers managed to hang 20 points on them a few weeks ago. Dallas' schedule isn't going to get any easier with matchups against the Eagles, Texans and Commanders in succession up next. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I haven't been overly impressed by what I've seen from the Chargers so far this season. Their four wins have come against the Raiders, Panthers, Broncos and Saints and they haven't managed to string together consecutive victories since Weeks 1 and 2. I think they're walking into a hornet's nest in Cleveland on Sunday as despite their 2-6 record, the Browns have to feel that they can go on a run following last week's upset win over the Ravens. Cleveland gets its bye week next and the schedule doesn't really toughen up again until mid-December. There's reason to believe the Browns are capable of at the very least making things a little more interesting for their rabid fan base over the next month or so. The presence of QB Jameis Winston has given the rest of the Browns offense a boost. Job number one for Jameis will be taking care of the football on Sunday. If he can do that (and I realize that's a pretty big 'if'), I think there's a good chance Cleveland wins this game by margin. Take Cleveland (8*).

My selection is on Nevada plus the points over Colorado State at 8 pm et on Saturday.

The wheels have come off for Nevada over the last couple of games, culminating with a blowout loss on the road against Hawaii last Saturday. This was always going to be a difficult season for the rebuilding Wolf Pack but they've actually held up better than expected with three victories to their credit and some close losses in the mix. With a very difficult trip to Boise to face the red hot Broncos on deck, getting a win here is important and I'm confident Nevada will accomplish just that against the Rams. Colorado State checks in off three straight wins. All three victories came in tightly-contested affairs and I can't help but feel a letdown is in order on Saturday. Note that Nevada will have revenge on its mind after dropping a 30-20 decision against Colorado State last November. Take Nevada (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Massachusetts and Mississippi State at 4:15 pm et on Saturday.

This is a true 'get right' game for Mississippi State as it enters riding a seven-game losing streak having taken its lumps in SEC play. I do think the Bulldogs defense will thrive in this matchup but I'm not convinced its sputtering offense will follow suit. We have seen Mississippi State's offense put up some points in recent weeks but that was largely game-script related as it was trailing by big margins in those contests and facing defenses that were in let-up mode. We're likely to see the opposite game script unfold here with the Bulldogs installed as big home favorites. Massachusetts is certainly accustomed to being overmatched this season. It has won only twice including a blowout victory over FCS squad Wagner last week. While the end results didn't go in their favor, I did feel the Minutemen at least kept things respectable (relatively speaking) in notable losses to Toledo, Northern Illinois and Missouri (arguably the three most difficult opponents on their schedule to this point). Offensively, UMass has scored more than 23 points on only two occasions this season and both came against FCS opponents. This probably isn't a game you want to sit down and watch on Saturday but we'll look to end up on the right side of the total nonetheless. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Texas Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Iowa State is off to an 8-0 start to the season and finds itself in another smash spot at home on Saturday as it has had an extra week off to prepare for a vaunted Texas Tech offense. On the flip side, the Cyclones impressive offense figures to feast on a worn out Red Raiders defense that let TCU off the hook in last Saturday's wild 35-34 loss. The wheels have come off for Texas Tech over the last couple of games as they also dropped their Homecoming showdown with Baylor in a game that was no contest two weeks ago. Note that Iowa State is in a 'double-revenge' spot here, most recently dropping a 14-10 decision at home against Texas Tech two years ago. Of course, that was a far more limited Cyclones offense than the one that will take the field on Saturday. I think it's only a matter of time before Iowa State pulls away in this contest. Take Iowa State (8*).

Big Ten Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Michigan State plus the points over Indiana at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab the generous helping of points with the Spartans as they host red hot Indiana on Saturday in East Lansing. Michigan State put up a fight but fell a touchdown short against rival Michigan at the Big House last Saturday. A difficult schedule has certainly played a role in the Spartans 4-4 start to the campaign with losses against two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and Oregon in the mix (they went 1-1 ATS in those contests). I like Michigan State's chances of surprising undefeated Indiana on Saturday. The Hoosiers are coming off a big home win over Washington last Saturday - they hosted ESPN College Gameday ahead of that one. Indiana has drawn a very favorable schedule to this point - it avoids Oregon and faces Ohio State in a couple of weeks. The Hoosiers haven't really been tested in two previous road games against UCLA and Northwestern but I think they will be here. In the grand scheme of things, a tight battle might be just what the doctor ordered for a team that has delivered blowout win after blowout win this season. Take Michigan State (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Duke and Miami at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I think Duke has a shot at making this game competitive and to do that it will have to stay up defensively, just as it has all season. The Blue Devils have quietly been one of the better defensive teams in the country on their way to a 6-2 record. Duke has allowed more than 24 points just once and that came thanks to overtime in last week's 28-27 defeat against SMU (it gave up only 21 points in regulation time). Offensively, the Blue Devils have been fairly limited. They've been held to 26 points or fewer in regulation time in seven of their eight contests and don't figure to suddenly break out on the road against a talented Miami defense. The name of the game for Duke will be taking care of the football and effectively shortening proceedings and that certainly works in our favor with the 'under'. Miami has been a juggernaut offensively and the path to running the table in the regular season is clear. I do expect the Hurricanes to at least face some resistance here, however, after scoring 36 points or more in all eight games this season. Of note, Miami's schedule has been very forgiving to this point with few capable defensive foes. I do think the potential is there for a letdown of sorts here after last week's blowout win under the lights against rival Florida State. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego State and Boise State at 8 pm et on Friday.

Boise State enters this matchup off consecutive 'under' results against Hawaii and UNLV. Last Friday's showdown with UNLV was projected to be a wild shootout and it looked like it was setting up that way until the Broncos took the air out of the football in the fourth quarter. We know this Boise State team can score with the best of them and I think we see it get pushed a little bit against San Diego State on Friday. The Aztecs are certainly not known for their offense but they have shown improvement in that department over the course of the season. They enter off a 29-26 loss at home against Washington State last Saturday. With just two victories over FBS opponents so far this season, they're certainly facing an uphill battle with five games remaining on the schedule. With that being said, there are winnable contests ahead including home games against New Mexico and Air Force and a road tilt against Utah State. But I digress. Here, I think we see San Diego State open up the playbook as it projects to play from behind for much of the night. Boise State is by no means a defensive powerhouse, ranking 202nd in the country in total yards allowed per game and 208th in points allowed per contest. The most recent meeting between these two teams produced 65 points last September. Take the over (8*).

TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

We've seen some high-scoring Thursday night matchups in the NFL lately and that's been far from the norm in recent years. I'm expecting nothing of the sort this week as the Texans travel to the Meadowlands to challenge the reeling Jets. Houston was already down top WR Nico Collins but lost Stefon Diggs to a season-ending injury on Sunday as well. Tank Dell remains healthy but he's by no means an alpha. I expect the Jets to receive a heavy dose of Houston RB Joe Mixon on Thursday night while QB C.J. Stroud aims to serve as a talent-elevator. Of note, the Texans offense has over-shadowed the team's impressive defense since Stroud took the league by storm as a rookie last year. You would have to go back to September 22nd to find the last time Houston allowed more than 24 points in a game and it enters this contest arguably as healthy as it has been on defense all season. To say the Jets offense has fizzled with Aaron Rodgers under center this season would be an understatement. The acquisition of WR DaVante Adams was supposed to inject life into this unit but that simply hasn't been the case. Since scoring 24 points in consecutive games (both wins) back in September, New York has produced 9, 17, 20, 15 and 22 points during its current five-game slide. Keep in mind, these two teams met in December of last year and combined to score 36 points in a Jets rout. Take the under (10*).

Conference-USA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Jacksonville State and Liberty at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Jacksonville State has been running up the score on its recent opponents, reeling off four straight wins while scoring 42 points or more in all four contests. Keep in mind, those games came against the likes of Southern Miss, Kennesaw State, New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee (combined 6-25 record). It figures to face a much more difficult challenge as it travels to Lynchburg to take on Liberty on Wednesday. The Flames will be in a foul mood after losing to then-winless Kennesaw State last week. Liberty hasn't been the same offensive juggernaut we've been accustomed to seeing in recent years - forced to rely a little more on its defense to come up big and that's not necessarily a bad thing. I do think the Flames match up well against the high-powered Gamecocks offense. Note that last year's meeting between these two teams produced only 44 total points. I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New Mexico State and Florida International at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

The perception is that these two teams are very bad and that along with the fact that Florida International was involved in a game that totalled just 17 points last week is weighing heavily on this total. I think there's a good chance we see the Panthers offense bounce back after getting bogged down against a good Sam Houston State defense last week. New Mexico State has allowed 30 points or more in six of seven games so far this season. The Aggies do come off their bye week, giving them extra time to prepare for a very beatable FIU defense. New Mexico State has shown flashes of brilliance offensively this season, most notably in a wild 50-40 loss against in-state rival New Mexico and last time out in a 33-30 double-overtime win over Louisiana Tech. Last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 51 points. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Buffalo at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab the points with the Seahawks as they host the Bills on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo has won consecutive games but those came against the Jets and Titans. Here, the Bills will head out on the road, travelling across the country to face a Seattle squad that is feeling pretty good about itself after last week's blowout win in Atlanta. The Seahawks are the surprise leaders in the NFC West entering the week but are still considered by most to be a pretender. A win here would serve as a major statement and I'm confident we'll see Seattle give Buffalo all it can handle. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Miami minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Dolphins are picking the right time to bring QB Tua Tagovailoa back into the fold against an injury-depleted Cardinals defense playing on a short week off Monday's win over the Chargers. Perhaps no team needs its starting quarterback as a talent elevator than Miami. We've seen the Dolphins take a massive step back with Tua sidelined with their offense looking punchless at best. Last week's game was served up on a silver platter for the Fins in Indianapolis but they couldn't get the win. The season may be circling the drain but there's reason for optimism this week. Arizona has risen up on occasion this season but has yet to deliver consecutive wins. Off its previous two victories it lost by seven points against Detroit and 21 points against Green Bay. This is a virtual must-win for Miami given it will head on the road for consecutive games against the Bills and Rams over the next two weeks. I believe this line will prove too short. Take Miami (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While some rust would usually be expected from a quarterback like Tua Tagovailoa as he returns following yet another head injury, the Cardinals defense is so injury-depleted that I think the Dolphins offense can and will thrive on Sunday. Of course, Arizona has rarely seen a shootout that it doesn't like (although you wouldn't know it from Monday's 17-15 win over the ultra-conservative Chargers). The Cards may be missing a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football but offensively all of their weapons remain in place. Miami's defense has been beatable this season and potential game script sees it playing fairly conservatively should it be nursing a lead as a home favorite on Sunday afternoon. I believe this game has shootout potential even if it isn't necessarily being priced that way. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Texas A&M minus the points over LSU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

I don't like the spot for LSU on Saturday as it travels to College Station off last week's rout of the Razorbacks in Fayetteville. While the Tigers have reeled off six straight wins following a season-opening loss to USC, so have the Aggies. Texas A&M won but didn't cover in last week's trip to Mississippi State. Having climbed to a season-high number-14 in the national rankings, I don't expect Texas A&M to relinquish that spot at home. Note that the last time we saw the Aggies play at home they delivered a 41-10 blowout victory over then number-nine ranked Missouri. Take Texas A&M (8*).

Big 12 Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas Tech plus the points over TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Texas Tech is coming off an embarrassing 59-35 home loss against Baylor last week, on Homecoming Weekend no less. That loss snapped the Red Raiders four-game winning streak. I look for them to bounce and hand TCU a Homecoming loss of their own on Saturday but we'll have the added benefit of grabbing a generous helping of points as well. TCU has managed to post consecutive victories just once this season, that coming in Weeks 1 and 2 against Stanford (who has turned out to be awful) and FCS squad LIU-Brooklyn. Since then, the Horned Frogs have gone 2-3 SU including consecutive home defeats at the hands of UCF and Houston. Here, we find TCU in a letdown spot following last week's ugly 13-7 win on the road against Utah. I like the fact that Texas Tech managed to deliver a tough road victory two weeks ago as it outlasted Oregon 28-22 in Tucson. That win was key after it failed to come through in a blowout loss at Washington State in its first road tilt this season. With an explosive, quick-strike offense the Red Raiders rarely find themselves out of a game and I'm confident they can trade blows with TCU all day long on Saturday. Take Texas Tech (10*).

My selection is on East Carolina minus the points over Temple at 2 pm et on Saturday.

I liked the way East Carolina didn't quit and ultimately made things somewhat respectable in a loss at red hot Army last week. The Pirates are clearly the better team in this matchup as they return home to host Temple. The Owls did deliver a 20-10 victory over a reeling Tulsa squad at home last Saturday. They're still just 2-5 on the campaign with their only other win coming against Utah State last month. The Pirates are a far better team than they showed in dropping consecutive road games in Charlotte and West Point. I look for them to take their frustrations out on a Temple squad that doesn't do anything particularly well on Saturday afternoon in Greenville. Take East Carolina (8*).

My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over Virginia at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The wheels have come off for North Carolina as it just wrapped up a winless four-game stretch that included three games played at home. The schedule does ease up from here so there's reason to believe the Tar Heels can still turn things around and I believe they have the talent and coaching to do so. Meanwhile, Virginia has dropped consecutive games and just gave up a season-high 48 points in last Saturday's defeat at the hands of Clemson. The Cavaliers wins this season have come against the likes of Richmond (FCS), Wake Forest, Coastal Carolina and Boston College. I'm not sure they have any business laying points in this matchup, even at home. Take North Carolina (8*).

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Rutgers and USC at 11 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams enter this Big Ten showdown riding three-game losing streaks. Both teams have to realize that they need to get back to doing what made them successful earlier in the season and that means playing some defense. Rutgers allowed 35 points in last Saturday's wild, high-scoring defeat in Piscataway. That came on the heels of a game in which the Scarlet Knights allowed 42 points in a blowout loss to Wisconsin. Remember, this is a team that had allowed 23 points or less in each of its first five games this season. With a limited offense, the Scarlet Knights know that they can ill afford to continue to get involved in shootouts. It's a similar story for USC, even if it does possess a high-powered offense. The Trojans gave up a grand total of 41 points in their first three victories this season - part of a 3-1 start. Since then they've been trampled for 24, 33 and 29 points in three consecutive tightly-contested defeats. Expect a return to fundamentals from USC in this winnable game at home on Friday. Take the under (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Southern and Old Dominion at 7 pm et on Thursday.

We've been high on the Old Dominion defense all season - remember we cashed with the Monarchs as a big underdog against South Carolina way back in Week 1. While there have been some bumps in the road, ODU has steadied itself to deliver consecutive low-scoring victories in-conference to move to 2-1 in Sun Belt play, setting up this game for first place in the East Division. Colton Joseph has taken over from Grant Wilson at quarterback, effectively settling the Monarchs offense. This is very much a run-first attack at this point with Joseph leading the team in rushing in each of the last two games. Georgia Southern has gotten hot since a slow start, reeling off three straight victories. Surprisingly, it has been the Eagles defense that has paved the way, holding their three Sun Belt opponents to 21, 23 and 14 points (all victories). As much as the Eagles would like to open things up offensively in this matchup, I'm not sure they'll see a ton of open field. This matchup produced a slugfest last year with Old Dominion going on the road and winning 20-17. I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Kennesaw State plus the points over Liberty at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

It's a matchup of undefeated against winless as Liberty travels to Georgia to take on Kennesaw State on Wednesday. The Flames are 5-0 but it's not as if they're dominating the opposition. Their largest margin of victory this season was 18 points and that was against an awful UTEP team at home. Coming off its bye week and having played only once since September 21st (due to a cancelled game at Appalachian State), Liberty feels like a team that's still trying to ramp things up. Kennesaw State scored only five points in last week's loss to Middle Tennessee State and that came on the heels of a 63-24 rout at the hands of Jacksonville State. The Owls are taking their lumps in their first season at the FBS level. This is arguably the biggest game left on their schedule, in primetime against a fairly high profile opponent. From here, the Owls will head on the road for consecutive games, not playing back at home again until November 16th. We don't need anything close to an outright upset to cash our ticket on Wednesday so we'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Owls at home. Take Kennesaw State (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and Louisiana Tech at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

We got the result we wanted from UTEP last week to help keep this total higher than it probably should be. The Miners scored 30 points in a home win over Florida International, thriving offensively in their first game without QB Cade McConnell. I'm not counting on continued success from UTEP here as it makes the difficult trip to Ruston to face Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs were involved in a high-scoring game of their own last week as they fell 33-30 in double-overtime at New Mexico State. I expect the scoring to settle down here, noting that last year's matchup between these two teams reached only 34 total points. Both offenses are limited and I'm not anticipating a ton of offensive fireworks on Tuesday. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Bettors have been pounding the 'over' ahead of this projected shootout between the Ravens and Buccaneers on Monday night. We'll go the other way and expect to be on the side of the books as we call for a lower-scoring contest than expected. Note that the Ravens have seen the 'under' go 16-10 when playing on the road following three or more consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a long-term 63-48 with the Ravens coming off a game in which they scored 30 or more points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-9 with the Bucs playing at home with the total set at 49.5 points or higher and 27-12 when they play at home following a victory by 14 points or more. Yes, these two teams can score with the best of them but I think that notion has been more than factored into the total with the number bumping up a few points since opening. Take the under (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the way this situation sets up for the 49ers as they look to gain an ounce of revenge after losing the Super Bowl at the hands of the Chiefs last February. While Kansas City has the benefit of coming off its bye week, San Francisco gets the best of both worlds in a sense as it had a few extra days of preparation thanks to playing in last week's Thursday nighter in Seattle but doesn't have to deal with the possible rust off the bye. While it's by no means a must-win for the Niners, it is a critical spot as they look to avoid falling below the .500 mark. The schedule isn't going to get much easier with tough sledding ahead including upcoming road games in Tampa, Green Bay and Buffalo. The Chiefs aren't going to run the table this season - that I'm certain of. With that being said, after this contest there's not a lot of resistance until a road game in Buffalo in the third week of November. We'll lay the short number with San Francisco. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Washington at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The only time we've really seen the lowly Panthers come up with much offensive success was in Andy Dalton's first game as the QB starter in Las Vegas, and in a come-from-behind role against the Bengals two weeks ago. I think this contest might be a little closer than most expect with Washington in for a letdown of sorts off last week's hard-fought game in Baltimore. The Commanders have exceeded expectations to be sure but I'm not convinced they're ready to be laying close to double-digits. With that being said, I'm also not ready to grab the points with the Panthers as they haven't shown much of a pulse offensively. In order to topple a total this high, you probably need a shootout of sorts but I'm not sure that ever develops in Washington on Sunday. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games last week. I don't think for a second that either team wants to get involved in a shootout this Sunday in Atlanta. Seattle's defense has had its issues this season. During its current three-game losing streak it has allowed 42, 29 and 36 points. I don't think this is all that bad of a matchup for the Seahawks, however. The Falcons have rolled to three straight wins and that's not all that unexpected as their schedule has softened up considerably after a difficult start. They scored 38 points last Sunday but that came against the hapless Panthers - arguably the league's worst defensive team. Any opponent with a pulse figures to pose more resistance. Defensively the Falcons match up well against a Seahawks offense led by check-down connoisseur Geno Smith. I think we'll see both teams commit to running the football as this one stays 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (8*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants had every opportunity to stage an upset against the Bengals last Sunday night but ultimately squandered those in a 10-point loss. While this isn't a bad matchup for the G-Men on paper given how the Eagles have struggled, I don't see it going their way. Philadelphia did manage to win last week's tougher-than-expected matchup with Cleveland and I do think that gives it some confidence moving forward. This is a 'get right' game for the Eagles defense against a familiar opponent and with the Giants losing LT Andrew Thomas to injury. I think Philadelphia will be able to pin its ears back defensively in this game and I'm confident the offense can take care of the rest, noting that A.J. Brown has made an obvious impact. When healthy, this Eagles offense can still be elite. Even with super rookie WR Malik Nabers back on the field, the same can't be said for New York. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and Oregon State at 10 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams are coming off a string of wild, high-scoring affairs - a big reason why this total is hovering around the 60-point mark. I don't think Oregon State will have any interest in a track meet on Saturday, however, as it knows that its offense, while productive at times, isn't consistent enough to prevail in that type of environment. UNLV is almost certainly in line for some regression offensively after putting up 59, 41 and 50 points over its last three games. Keep in mind, two of those performances came in the friendly confines of Allegiant Stadium while the other came against one of the worst defenses in the country in Utah State. Remember, earlier this season the Rebels were involved in road games that totalled just 34 and 43 points against Houston and Kansas, respectively. I believe this total will prove too high under the lights in Corvallis. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Stanford plus the points over SMU at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Stanford is in free-fall right now having lost three straight games following a 2-1 star to the campaign. Not a lot better could have been expected out of the Cardinals during a three-game stretch that included games at Clemson, at home against Virginia Tech and at Notre Dame. Here, I like the Cardinal's chances of rebounding and giving SMU a serious test. The Mustangs are coming off an upset win on the road against Louisville two weeks ago (they had their bye last week). Make no mistake, that was a big win for SMU as a program, taking down a top-25 ranked ACC squad. Now SMU finds itself inside the nation's top-25 and I can't help but feel a letdown is in order, especially with this game sandwiched between the stop in Louisville and another road game against Duke next week. Take Stanford (8*).

My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over Florida at 7:45 pm et on Saturday.

So maybe Vanderbilt is for real. I'll admit, I thought Kentucky would roll past the Commodores, who were in a massive letdown spot following the monumental win over then-number one ranked Alabama the week previous, last Saturday in Lexington. That didn't happen and now the Wildcats need to pick up where they left off in their most recent road game - a hard-fought win over Ole Miss in Oxford - in order to get their season back on track. I like their chances of going into the Swamp and coming away with a win over the rival Gators. Florida has been pretty much as advertised so far this season, going 3-3 through its first six games. I question how much the Gators have in the tank after leaving it all on the field in a 23-17 overtime loss last Saturday in Knoxville. Not only that but the Gators will be looking ahead to next week's showdown with rival Georgia in Jacksonville. I like the fight Kentucky has shown this season, despite the disappointing result last week. Take Kentucky (8*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Buffalo at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Western Michigan had a tough schedule out of the gate this season, lining up against Wisconsin and Ohio State in consecutive weeks, on the road no less. Since then, the Broncos have steadied themselves by posting three wins in their last four games. Last week, Buffalo staged an upset win at home against Toledo. The Bulls have been wildly inconsistent so far this season. I think they caught the Rockets in a spot where they figured they could sleepwalk their way to a victory. That's just not how the MAC works. Any team is capable of beating any other team on any given day. Here, I expect Western Michigan to take a more serious approach than Toledo and ultimately prevail. The Broncos know they can't take anything for granted. After all, their two straight wins over Ball State and Akron came by a grand total of just 13 points. These two teams haven't met since the 2021 season, when Western Michigan went on the road and won 24-17. The Broncos would like nothing more than to spoil the Bulls homecoming weekend on Saturday. Look for them to do just that. Take Western Michigan (10*).

AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on East Carolina plus the points over Army at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Army finds itself ranked in the national top-25 following six consecutive blowout wins to open the season. We'll fade the Black Knights on Saturday, however, as they've faced a ridiculously easy schedule so far including games against two of the country's worst FBS teams in Tulsa and UAB over the last two weeks. East Carolina started the season 2-0 but has dropped three of four games since. The Pirates come off their bye week, giving them extra time to prepare for Army's vaunted triple-option attack. East Carolina figures to be in a foul mood entering this contest after it was stunned 55-24 on the road against Charlotte last time out. Prior to that, the Pirates other two setbacks came against tough opponents in Appalachian State and Liberty, by a combined 13 points. We're catching a generous helping of points with East Carolina on Saturday, in a game that I expect to go down to the wire. Take East Carolina (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Purdue at 8 pm et on Friday.

This is a tough spot for both of these teams with Oregon just six days removed from its thrilling come-from-behind win over Ohio State and Purdue coming off a wild 50-49 overtime loss against Illinois on the same day. Considering the Boilermakers had been held to 10 points or less in three of their previous five games, an offensive letdown is sure to be in order against an elite Oregon defense on Friday. Meanwhile, the Ducks have been incredibly consistent offensively this season but perhaps not quite as explosive as in previous years, topping out at 37 points in five of their six contests (they scored 49 points in an outlier performance against Oregon State). This game presents an opportunity for Oregon to catch its breath following the massive win over Ohio State. I believe the total will prove too high. Take the under (8*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Virginia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

I'm not a big believer in this Virginia Tech squad. Yes, a night game in Blacksburg is a tough setting for an underdog visitor but I expect Boston College to be up for the challenge in this rivalry matchup. Note that the Hokies have taken the last two meetings in this series and neither game was close. Boston College checks in off a loss on the road against Virginia two weeks ago. Both teams will be coming off their bye weeks. I think the Virginia Tech offense is in line for some regression in this matchup after scoring 34 and 31 points in its last two games. The Hokies nearly upset Miami on the road two games back before taking their frustrations out on a reeling Stanford squad last time out. Wins over Marshall, Old Dominion and Stanford aren't all that impressive. While Boston College has dropped a couple of games, it has been right here in all seven contests. I'm confident head coach Bill O'Brien will have the right gameplan to attack the Hokies defense given the extra week to prepare. The schedule only gets tougher from here, look for the Eagles to put up a fight on Thursday. Take Boston College (10*).

Conference-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Western Kentucky and Sam Houston State at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Both of these teams are in for some offensive regression on Wednesday as they match up in Huntsville. Sam Houston State has scored 40 and 41 points in its last two games and has generally exceeded expectations from an offensive standpoint this season. The Bearkats figure to face a lot more resistance against Western Kentucky than they did in their most recent contest against a dreadful UTEP team. Note that the Hilltoppers have held the likes of Toledo (at home) and Boston College (on the road) to an identical 21 points. Like Sam Houston State, Western Kentucky figures to get a bit of a wake-up call after annihilating UTEP 44-17 just six days ago. Last year's matchup between these two teams was a close one as WKU prevailed 28-23. That contest reached 'only' 51 points despite a 30-point second quarter. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Nothing stands out about either of these offenses and both have been kind to 'under' bettors with the Bills showing a renewed commitment to the run under offensive coordinator Joe Brady and the Jets trotting out QB Aaron Rodgers who is a shell of his former self and runs the offense at a glacial pace (keep an eye on the play clock - it will be at zero on virtually every play). While this is a fairly low total, I believe it could be even lower (keeping in mind we've seen plenty of totals in the 30's on a weekly basis this season). Interim Jets head coach Jeff Ulbrich has already indicated he wants to show a strong commitment to the run and I do think game script will allow that in what projects as a tightly-contested divisional affair on Monday night. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I don't like the prospect of the Steelers laying points as they travel across the country following last Sunday night's hard-fought loss against the Cowboys. Pittsburgh has now dropped consecutive games following a 3-0 start to the season. The Raiders are coming off a blowout defeat against the division rival Broncos in Denver last Sunday. They led that game 10-0 and appeared poised to go ahead 17-0 with a goal-to-go situation early in the second quarter but a Gardner Minshew interception resulted in a Patrick Surtain II pick-six and the rest was history. While Las Vegas doesn't have a lot going for it, I do think it will get up for this revenge spot after dropping a 23-18 decision at home against Pittsburgh last season. With the potential to climb back to the .500 mark with a win here, the Raiders undoubtedly still have plenty to play for. Take Las Vegas (8*).

AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

First to 10 wins? This game sets up as one of the lowest-scoring on the Week 6 board. Los Angeles is expected to get healthy on the offensive line but QB Justin Herbert is still banged up, even after the bye week, and this is an ultra conservative offense to begin with. The Broncos defense has put itself in the 'elite' conversation. I don't expect Jim Harbaugh to allow the training wheels to be removed from the Chargers offense in this difficult matchup. On the flip side, the Los Angeles defense has held up better than expected this season. Consider the Broncos offensive explosion against the Raiders last week an anomaly. I fully expect Sean Payton to employ a 'hide the quarterback' type of gameplan as Denver aims for its fourth straight victory on Sunday. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Ravens were very fortunate to come away with a win in Cincinnati last week. With the exception of its blowout win over Buffalo two weeks ago, all of Baltimore's games have gone down to the wire. I expect a similar outcome on Sunday. The Commanders are going to be a popular underdog pick this week but that's fine. They've exceeded expectations to be sure but I don't think this spot is too big for them. Washington has cut QB Jayden Daniels loose and this is an offense that looks like it's playing with house money, so to speak. Defensively, the Commanders do have their warts but as I mentioned, Baltimore has had a difficult time putting teams away (look no further than its Week 2 loss at home against Las Vegas). We can anticipate a run-centric approach from the Ravens which effectively shortens proceedings and favors the underdog side catching a generous helping of points. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Few bettors want any piece of the Browns this week. Cleveland and namely QB Deshaun Watson looked disinterested in last Sunday's blowout loss in Washington. However, I do feel the value has swung Cleveland's way this week as it is catching nearly double-digits against a Philadelphia squad that hasn't exactly inspired a ton of confidence through four games this season (2-2 record). In today's NFL, where teams have a difficult time closing games out, we'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Browns. Cleveland did get some good news this week with top cornerback Denzel Ward expected to play. I'm still a believer in the Browns defense and you have to think that pride kicks in at some point, especially following that embarrassing performance in Washington last week. Finally, we'll note that the Eagles are just 17-24 ATS in their last 41 home games following an upset loss on the road, as is the case here. Take Cleveland (8*).

My selection is on Hawaii plus the points over Boise State at 11 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab the generous helping of points with the Rainbow Warriors as they look to catch the Broncos in a flat spot off that 62-point explosion against Utah State last week. Of course, Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty is a next-level talent and on track for a possible Heisman Trophy this season. I like fading high-profile teams coming off much-discussed victories and that's the case with the Broncos here. The common line of thinking is that Jeanty will run wild once again but Hawaii has actually proven to have a pulse on defense this season. The Warriors dropped the cash last week at San Diego State but they've yet to suffer consecutive ATS defeats this season. Look for them to give the Broncos a fight on Saturday. Take Hawaii (8*).

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Colorado at 10:15 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams enter this showdown off their bye week and both are looking to follow up on impressive victories as Kansas State rolled Oklahoma State at home while Colorado blitzed Central Florida on the road. We'll fade the Buffaloes as they try for their fourth straight ATS victory. These two teams couldn't be more different. Give us the side that knows how to run the football - the Wildcats have been downright dominant on the ground so far this season, gaining 200+ rushing yards in all five games. Colorado has been virtually mistake-free lately but it will be tested by a Kansas State team that has forced six turnovers in its last four games. Take Kansas State (10*).

My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Minnesota at 9 pm et on Saturday.

Moral victories aren't going to cut it for the Bruins. They've covered the spread in three straight games but enter this contest riding a four-game losing streak overall. The schedule has obviously played a role. I think this is a winnable game for UCLA as it catches Minnesota travelling in a letdown spot off a big upset win over USC last Saturday. The Golden Gophers had dropped two games in a row prior to that stunner. Here, they'll be trying for a third straight ATS win for the first time this season. The last time they tried to accomplish that feat they got rolled by Iowa at home on September 21st. We'll grab all the points we can get with the home underdog here. Take UCLA (8*).

My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over Vanderbilt at 7:45 pm et on Saturday.

It doesn't get much tougher than Vanderbilt trying to get back up and avoid the inevitable letdown following last week's massive upset win over then-number one ranked Alabama. The Commodores won't have the benefit of staying in Nashville as they head to Lexington to take on Kentucky. The Wildcats have gotten off to an uneven start this season but they did take Georgia down to the wire in a one-point defeat and also won outright on the road against Ole Miss just two weeks ago. Note that the Wildcats are rested following their bye week. We'll lay the points with the Wildcats on Saturday as I expect their defense to keep Diego Pavia and the Commodores in check all night long. Take Kentucky (8*).

My selection is on Oregon plus the points over Ohio State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

It's not often we get the opportunity to catch points with Oregon at Autzen Stadium. That's the situation on Saturday as the Ducks host mighty (and undefeated) Ohio State. Oregon got off to a slow start this season but has settled in. I don't really see any reason for the Buckeyes to be laying points against an undefeated opponent in a hostile environment. While Ohio State has been blowing out the opposition on a weekly basis, it hasn't truly been tested. Arguably its toughest matchup to date came against Iowa last week but that game was played at a the Horseshoe in Columbus. Much different story here against Oregon. Look for the Ducks to make the Buckeyes uncomfortable all night and stage the minor upset. Take Oregon (8*).

SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over LSU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Ole Miss got the wake up call it needed two weeks ago as it was upset at home against Kentucky. The Rebels got off to a strong start in that contest and perhaps thought the down-trodden Wildcats would simply roll over. That wasn't the case. Last Saturday, South Carolina did Ole Miss a big favor by not offering much of a challenge at all. You see the Rebels were going to be at a disadvantage here with LSU coming off its bye week. However, Ole Miss took part in a glorified walk-through against the Gamecocks, rolling to a 27-3 victory. I'm certain Lane Kiffin has his team treating this second straight road tilt as a business trip. LSU checks in off four straight wins but is just 1-4 ATS on the campaign. Take Ole Miss (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose State and Colorado State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams were involved in wild, high-scoring games last week. I expect nothing of the sort this week as San Jose State travels to face Colorado State. The Rams scored 31 points in a double-overtime loss against Oregon State last Saturday. The last time they scored 30+ points in a game they followed it up with a nine-point effort against rival Colorado. San Jose State has displayed a far more explosive offensive than most expected this season but I do think there will be bumps in the road. Keep in mind, this is a team that was held to 17 points in a road game against a struggling Air Force squad earlier this season. I think this is a sneaky-tough road trip off the thrilling win over Nevada last Saturday. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Arizona State at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

It seems like an eternity since Utah last played. In actuality it was on September 28th as the Utes fell by a 23-10 against Arizona. QB Cam Rising is expected to return from a finger injury suffered in Utah's second game of the season against Baylor. You have to wonder about rust from Rising as he's missed so much time over the last couple of years. Defensively, the Utes have been terrific in the early going this season and match up well against the Sun Devils. Arizona State has been running up some big scores this season but this will be its toughest test in terms of opposing defense. I expect points to come at a premium. Take the under (8*).

NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

While it may seem like a fairly inconsequential loss as the Seahawks are still 3-2 on the campaign, make no mistake, they needed last Sunday's game against the Giants. Most thought that would be a layup for Seattle but New York ultimately won by a 27-20 score. Now the Seahawks begin arguably the most difficult five-game stretch on their schedule and to make matters worse, they'll be welcoming a 49ers team that will be in a foul mood following Sunday's upset loss to the Cardinals on Thursday night. The Niners have dominated this matchup in recent years, on both sides of the football. While San Francisco has sputtered in the early going this season, I see this as a 'get right' matchup on a short week. Look for the Niners offense to bully an undermanned Seahawks defense that is missing arguably its two best players in Riq Woolen and Byron Murphy. San Francisco is dealing with injuries of its own on defense but I expect it to expose a bad Seattle offensive line and roll to a convincing victory on Thursday. Take San Francisco (10*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

It's already difficult enough to go undefeated through five games (the Vikings are the only team to do it so far this season). Here, the Chiefs will be trying to accomplish that feat but from a pointspread perspective are also laying a handful of points. I believe the spread will prove too high. Saints QB Derek Carr is certainly familiar with the Chiefs from his days with the division rival Raiders. Carr has been playing some of his best football so far this season, even if he has cooled off along with the Saints offense over the last couple of games. Off consecutive losses to the Eagles and Falcons by the narrowest of margins, I like New Orleans chances of bouncing back here but we'll grab the points as few teams have displayed the knack for pulling out victory from the jaws of defeat as the Chiefs have in recent years. Note that the Saints are 21-12 ATS in their last 33 road games following a road loss, as is the case here. The Chiefs are 26-30 ATS in their last 56 home games following three straight victories. Take New Orleans (10*).

My selection is on Arizona plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

No one will give the Cardinals much of a chance in this game, not after seeing them drop back-to-back games at home including a beatdown at the hands of the Commanders last Sunday. I think Arizona can give San Francisco a run here, noting that the 49ers are a long-term 56-71 ATS in their last 127 games following a win by 14 points or more, as is the case here. Arizona checks in 27-20 ATS in its last 47 games following an upset defeat at home. Take Arizona (8*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The highlight of this game might just be the Broncos throwback uniforms because the game itself figures to be a slugfest. The Raiders have won eight straight meetings in this 'rivalry' and I'm hard pressed to come up with any reasons for Denver to be favored in this spot. The Broncos are coming off consecutive road wins over the Buccaneers and Jets but they didn't look overly impressive in either of those contests. Yes, their defense is for real but that unit can't be expected to shoulder the entire load on a weekly basis. I think this is a game where we see the Raiders defensive front control proceedings and ultimately force rookie QB Bo Nix into a couple of critical mistakes. Las Vegas figures to go run-heavy on offense, especially with WR DaVante Adams sidelined while he awaits a trade. That's just fine as QB Gardner Minshew needs to be cautious against an ultra-aggressive Broncos defense. This might just be a game where the points end up coming into play keeping in mind last year's matchup in Denver was decided by a single point (the Raiders won that game 17-16 with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm) and this contest features the lowest total on this week's board (or virtually on par with the Dolphins-Patriots). Take Las Vegas (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We'll call for the Panthers to bounce back following last week's home defeat at the hands of a desperate Bengals squad. Veteran QB Andy Dalton has given the Carolina offense some life and I think it can hang, even against a tough Bears defense in Chicago. The Bears delivered a home win over the injury-riddled Rams last Sunday. Note that they're 17-25 ATS in their last 42 home games following a win by six points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Carolina is a long-term winner in a road underdog role having gone 97-78 ATS in its last 175 contests in that situation. Take Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over New York at 9:30 am et on Sunday.

There will be regression coming for the Vikings at some point but I don't think we see it this week. This is another favorable matchup for the Vikes as they travel to London to take on a Jets squad that is still trying to figure things out. Jets QB Aaron Rodgers was already virtually immobile before suffering a knee injury last week. He's in a nightmarish situation here against an ultra-aggressive Vikes defense. I have little confidence in New York coming up with a gameplan to beat this Brian Flores-led defense that is firing on all cylinders. Offensively, the Vikes are playing smart and I expect them to take what the Jets defense gives them on Sunday. Don't count on a ton of explosiveness out of the Minnesota offense but it will do enough to secure a fifth straight victory. Take Minnesota (8*).

My selection is on California plus the points over Miami at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Hurricanes got a scare at home against Virginia Tech last week. I don't think Miami's first loss of the season is far off at this point and Cal might just be the team to do the deed as it looks to rebound from its own first loss of the campaign last week in Tallahassee. Note that the Bears are an incredible 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games as an underdog of between 7.5 and 14 points. Miami getting involved in so many high-scoring affairs is usually a bad sign moving forward as it has gone 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following three straight 'over' results, as is the case here. Take California (8*).

Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and San Jose State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off bye weeks, giving them extra time to prepare for what will be a familiar opponent in-conference on Saturday. It's also worth noting that both teams are coming off high-scoring games with Nevada rolling to a 49-16 victory over FCS opponent Eastern Washington and San Jose State falling in a wild 54-52 double-overtime game at Washington State. I'm not convinced that either team wants any part of a shootout here. San Jose State was involved in an incredibly low-scoring game in its Mountain West Conference opener this season as it held on for a 17-7 home win over Air Force. For Nevada, this will be its first MWC game of the campaign. Installed as a considerable favorite, the Spartans will look to grab a lead and take the air out of the football with their ground attack and that's a very reasonable gameplan against a Nevada team that can be bullied up front. The Wolf Pack appeared to be moving in the wrong direction after a hot start to the campaign, scoring a grand total of 17 points in losses to Georgia Southern and Minnesota before busting out against Eastern Washington. This sets up as a game where Nevada look to keep it simple and keep the Spartans within arm's reach and hope to get a couple of breaks late to steal a road win. It all adds up to a relatively low-scoring affair in San Jose. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Tulsa plus the points over Army at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Army has ripped through its first four opponents including a primetime win over Temple in front of a national audience last Thursday night. We've yet to see many flaws in the Black Knights' game but I do think this is a tricky spot as it stays on the road to face 2-2 Tulsa on Saturday. The Golden Hurricane haven't looked overly impressive but two wins are two wins and given their schedule ahead, they'll have every opportunity to reach a Bowl game this season. A win here would obviously massive, not only in working toward that goal but also for the team's confidence following a 52-20 road loss against North Texas last week. I saw enough in Tulsa's road win over Louisiana Tech two weeks ago to believe it can hang with Army in this spot. Army isn't going to run the table this season and we'll take this opportunity to fade it as it remains undefeated in early October. Take Tulsa (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on UMass plus the points over Northern Illinois at 12 noon et on Saturday.

How quickly things can change. Northern Illinois pulled off a stunning upset win over Notre Dame in South Bend three weeks ago, improving to 2-0 on the season. That victory got the Huskies into the top-25 rankings and even into the expanded College Football Playoff conversation. Since then, Northern Illinois lost in overtime against Buffalo and in another close game on the road against N.C. State last week. I think it's going to be awfully tough for the Huskies to get up for an independent opponent in UMass this week (the Minutemen will join the MAC next season). Another rather sparse crowd is expected at Huskie Stadium and I think the door is open for the Minutemen to stay competitive for four quarters. UMass is off to a 1-4 start but has made some progress. Last Saturday, it gave Miami-Ohio all it could handle in a 23-20 overtime loss. Staying on the road to face another MAC opponent might just be a good thing for the Minutemen before the schedule really toughens up with SEC foe Missouri rolling into Hadley next week (they'll also face two additional SEC opponents in Mississippi State and Georgia later in the season, both away from home). This is just too many points for a pop-gun Huskies Northern Illinois to be laying. Take UMass (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Syracuse and UNLV at 9 pm et on Friday.

Credit UNLV for rising to the occasion and delivering a knockout blow against Fresno State last week. You'll probably never see a better game out of QB Hajj-Malik Williams. Things get a little tougher this week as the Runnin' Rebels welcome 3-1 Syracuse to Allegiant Stadium. I think the total has been set too high. The Orange lit up FCS opponent Holy Cross last time out, scoring 42 points in a rout. Here, I look for the Orange to do all they can to control proceedings and not let this one turn into a track meet. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in Syracuse's last 14 road games following a home win by 28 points or more. The 'under' is also a long-term 49-29 with the Orange playing on the road against an opponent with a winning record. Meanwhile, UNLV has seen the 'under' go 17-8 in its last 25 contests following a home victory by 17 points or more. Take the under (8*).

Conference USA Game of the Month. My selection is on UTEP plus the points over Sam Houston State at 9 pm et on Thursday.

This is an incredibly tough spot for Sam Houston State as it goes on the road following a thrilling come-from-behind win over Texas State last Saturday. The Bearkats are 4-1 SU and ATS on the season but check in just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Note that they were upset at home 37-34 by UTEP last October. As we know in college football, revenge is a dish best served at home. Here, I expect the Miners to be the more desperate team as they look to avoid an 0-5 start before heading on the road for a difficult game against Western Kentucky. Note that UTEP is a long-term 18-16 ATS against opponents that win 75% or more of their games including a 10-6 ATS mark at home. Take UTEP (10*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Lions may be considered to be an elite team but there's hasn't really been anything elite about what they've put on tape through three games this season.

Detroit is 2-1 with wins over the Rams and Cardinals (it lost to the Buccaneers in Week 2). The Lions have yet to score more than 24 points in a game. Note that the Lions are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games against opponents that allow 175 pass yards per game or less. They're also just 15-23 ATS in their last 38 home contests after giving up 14 points or less in their previous game, as is the case here.

Seattle remains undefeated at 3-0. While I don't love backing undefeated teams, I'm willing to make an exception when that team is catching as many points as the Seahawks are in this spot. Note that Seattle is 31-25 ATS in its last 56 road games against opponents that gain 4.5 yards per rush or more. The Seahawks have been stout against the run this season, holding opponents to just 3.9 yards per rush.

While most are anticipating a shootout in this game, I'm not convinced we'll see a ton of quick-strike plays. Instead look for these two efficient offenses to churn out long drives that effectively shorten proceedings. That favors the team catching points, especially when spotted more than a field goal. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on Miami minus the points over Tennessee at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

While the Dolphins don't instill a ton of confidence right now, neither do the Titans. I like the fact that Miami has settled on a quarterback in Tyler Huntley and he's undoubtedly a better fit for this offense than Skylar Thompson (he's not a fit for any NFL offense).

Note that Tennessee is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on the road after three straight ATS losses. The Titans are also a miserable 17-28 ATS in their last 45 road contests against opponents that have a win percentage between 25% and 40%.

We've seen the Titans depth-shy defense wilt in each of their first three games and I think the Fins can run an offense that will wear them down on Monday as well. Note that Tennessee is missing arguably its two best players in the secondary in Awuzie and Sneed. Take Miami (8*).

SNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Sunday.

The Ravens have seen all three of their games go 'over' the total this season but I look for that trend to reverse on Sunday night against the Bills. Buffalo has shown a renewed commitment to its ground attack under the guidance of offensive coordinator Joe Brady. While QB Josh Allen has been outstanding - an early season MVP candidate - I do think we'll see the Bills lean on that ground game in an effort to shorten proceedings on Sunday night. Note that the 'under' is 75-57 in Buffalo's last 132 road games as an underdog of seven points or less and 60-39 in its last 99 road contests with the total set between 42.5 and 49 points. Meanwhile, Baltimore has seen the 'under' go 12-8 in its last 20 home games following three straight 'over' results and 17-11 in its last 28 home contests against opponents that allow 17 points per game or less. Take the under (10*).

AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Chargers have major injury concerns right now but we know they're not conceding this divisional matchup as QB Justin Herbert is expected to play through his ankle injury. The Chiefs aren't going to run the table this season and I like Los Angeles' chances of effectively shortening proceedings on Sunday afternoon and at the very least taking this game down to the wire. Note that Kansas City is just 20-24 ATS in its last 44 road games following a road win, as is the case here. The Chiefs are also just 28-35 ATS in their last 63 road contests following a victory by six points or less. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 69-53 ATS in their last 122 games as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points and 38-32 ATS in their last 70 contests against a team that wins 75% or more of its games. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Denver plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This would typically be a fade spot for the Broncos as they stay on the road for a second straight week following last Sunday's upset win in Tampa. In today's NFL, I'm not so sure it's that straight-forward.

The Jets are simply laying too many points in my opinion. They've been idle since a week ago Thursday when they blasted the division-rival Patriots in a game that was never all that close. Now they get what looks like another gimme on paper but I think it's the type of matchup that can give New York trouble.

New York has a long track record of playing down to the competition, particularly at home. Note that it checks in 33-51 ATS in its last 84 home games against an opponent with a losing record. Additionally, the Jets are 8-14 ATS in their last 22 contests at home against opponents that average 4.75 yards per play or less, as is the case here.

Denver is 35-30 ATS in its last 65 road games after allowing 14 points or less in its previous contest. The Broncos are also 28-24 ATS in their last 52 road games played in the month of September. Denver might not end up being very good this season, but it is quite simply catching too many points in this spot. Take Denver (8*).