Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers OVER 56.5 | 16-30 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Green Bay at 8:50 pm et on Monday. This is the being pegged as an explosive shootout by the oddsmakers and I tend to agree. The Falcons have to be in desperation mode at this point and they do draw a favorable matchup against a very beatable Packers defense. The strength of Atlanta is obviously in its offense and while Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are questionable to play I would bank on one, if not both of the Falcons offense stars suiting up. It may not even matter as Atlanta should find success moving the football on the ground as well with Green Bay having allowed north of five yards per rush this season. The Packers offense is red hot entering this matchup and should face little resistance from a non-existent Falcons defense. Note that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has absolutely eviscerated the Falcons lately, passing for over 1,000 yards, 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions in his last four games against them. He loses WR Allen Lazard but should have superstar Davante Adams back on the field. Take the over (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Colts v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 19-11 | Win | 100 | 76 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. While scoring is up across the league through the first three weeks of the season, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in Chicago on Sunday afternoon. The Colts should continue to pound away on the ground behind standout rookie RB Jonathan Taylor. QB Philip Rivers has been relegated to 'game manager' status in the latter stages of his career and he should be firmly planted in that role against a solid Bears defense on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Chicago offense will turn to QB Nick Foles after he rallied the team to a come-from-behind win in Atlanta last Sunday. Don't count on another sharp performance from Foles here as he faces an above average but perhaps still underrated Colts defense. We won with the 'over' in the Bears victory over the Falcons last week, but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Chargers v. Bucs UNDER 43.5 | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bucs defense remains an underrated unit, perhaps overshadowed by the team's star-laden offense. Note that the Bucs run defense is allowing under three yards per rush this season. Here, I look for the Tampa Bay defense to dominate a struggling Chargers offense led by rookie QB Justin Herbert. Los Angeles' 2020 campaign pretty much got derailed before it started due to a number of key injuries on both sides of the football. Coming off a discouraging home loss to the Panthers last week there's little reason to anticipate a big bounce-back performance, particularly from the Chargers offense, here. Look for the Bucs to continue to pound away long, clock churning drives on their way to a third straight victory, helping cash 'under' tickets in the process. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Vikings v. Texans OVER 54.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings narrow 31-30 home loss to the Titans last week and I'll go right back to the well with the same play as Minnesota travels to face the reeling Texans on Sunday afternoon. This is another prime blow-up spot for Vikings RB Dalvin Cook as he faces a Houston defense that has been shredded for nearly six yards per rush this season. Even QB Kirk Cousins is set up for success given the Texans complete inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. On the flip side, the Texans finally catch a scheduling break here after a tough three-game slate to open the season (Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers). The Vikings defense is a shell of its former self due to injuries and offseason departures. Like the Houston defense, Minnesota hasn't been able to get to opposing quarterbacks and figures to struggle against big-time playmaker QB DeShaun Watson in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 49 | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 43 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a shootout between these two AFC bottom-feeders on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. Jacksonville got stymied by the Dolphins of all teams in last week's Thursday nighter. It's interesting that most had high hopes for the Jags Gardner Minshew-led offense heading into that game (myself included) but are now quick to write them off. I'm confident we'll see a big bounce-back performance from the Jags offense against a very beatable Bengals defense on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville is set up well to open things up given Cincinnati has done little to slow opposing ground attacks, allowing north of 5.2 yards per rush this season. Meanwhile, the Bengals offense has plenty of upside with QB Joe Burrow moving the football consistently in an up-tempo attack. With Jacksonville showing some ability to shut down opposing running games, look for Burrow to take to the air and expose a very beatable Jags secondary in this one. While A.J. Green has been a virtual no-show, the rest of the Bengals receivers have been quietly performing well and building a nice rapport with the rookie Burrow. Look for continued progression from the Cincinnati offense on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-27-20 | Washington Football Team v. Browns UNDER 45 | 20-34 | Loss | -107 | 70 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Browns are going to have to show me a little more consistency before I start believing in their offense. They exploded against the Bengals last week but that shouldn't have come as a big surprise as Cincinnati boasts one of the league's weakest defenses and the game was played on a short week. Here, Cleveland will face a Washington defense that can get after the quarterback. The Washington offense got stuck in the mud last Sunday in Arizona, only managing a couple of late touchdown scores (and failed two-point conversions that cost us our 'over' ticket). The jury is still out on QB Dwayne Haskins. We did see Washington's offense put up some points in Week 1 but that was only thanks to their defense setting them up with short field after short field in the second half. I don't believe we'll see the Washington pass rush obliterate a solid Cleveland offensive line the way it did Philadelphia in that contest. Look for Baker Mayfield to take a backseat to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in this one as the Browns control the game flow and ultimately churn away the clock in a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-20 | Titans v. Vikings OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. When you think Titans and Vikings the first thing that comes to mind might not be 'shootout' but I believe that's precisely what we're in for on Sunday afternoon. It's desperation time for the Vikings after suffering back-to-back beatdowns at the hands of the Packers and Colts. The good news is this matchup could play right into their struggling offense's hands - or more specifically the legs of RB Dalvin Cook. The Titans have had a tough time stopping the run in the early going this season, allowing a whopping 5.15 yards per rush to enemy backs. Here, we can expect them to have their hands full stopping Cook, while also missing some key cogs in their secondary, improving the chances of WR Adam Thielen going off. On the flip side, the injury-plagued Vikings defense isn't likely to slow an underrated Titans offense. Without DE Danielle Hunter the Vikes haven't shown any semblance of a pass rush and a clean pocket should serve Ryan Tannehill well in this one. Meanwhile, RB Derrick Henry should find plenty of room to run against a Vikes front that will be without LB Anthony Barr. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-20 | Stephen F Austin v. SMU OVER 60.5 | 7-50 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Stephen F. Austin and SMU at 7 pm et on Saturday. This game has shootout written all over it as SMU looks to continue its hot start against FCS squad Stephen F. Austin. Mustangs QB Shane Buechele has picked up right where he left off last season, throwing for over 700 yards and five touchdowns through two games this season. There's little reason to expect him to ease up against the Lumberjacks on Saturday night. Meanwhile, the SMU backfield has been absolutely rolling and faces another favorable matchup here. On the flip side, SFA QB Trae Self showed some progression in last week's loss, passing for 285 yards and a touchdown after struggling in the season-opener. Keep in mind, the Mustangs have already given up 59 points in two games this season and it's not as if they've faced top level competition. SMU has posted victories against Texas State and North Texas. Take the over (10*). |
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09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. UTSA UNDER 60 | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 54 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Middle Tennessee State and UTSA at 8 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at the Alamodome on Friday night as I don't expect a shootout between the Blue Raiders and Roadrunners. Middle Tennessee is off to an 0-2 start, scoring a grand total of 14 points in the process. While this is certainly the Blue Raiders most favorable matchup to date, I'm still not convinced we'll see their offense get rolling. Note that in last week's 47-14 rout at the hands of Troy they scored a touchdown in the final two minutes of the first quarter but then didn't find the end zone again until the game was completely out of hand with two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. UTSA won a wild 51-48 overtime game against Texas State in its season-opener but reverted to low-scoring form in last week's 24-10 victory over Stephen F. Austin. In that win, the Roadrunners didn't score a touchdown until two minutes into the second quarter. Impressively, their defense gave up just a single touchdown, that coming in the dying seconds of the second quarter. The last meeting between these two teams reached 70 total points but that was back in 2016. Expect a different story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 48 | 31-13 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Jacksonville at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a relatively high total for a reason in this one. I'm anticipating an entertaining Thursday night affair between the lowly Dolphins and Jaguars. Miami catches its most favorable matchup of the season to date after facing the Patriots and Bills in its first two contests. The Jaguars were assumed to be 'tanking' this season having ushered out virtually all of their defensive talent. I still consider Jacksonville to have one of the league's worst defenses, even if it has held up fairly well through two games. Keep in mind, the Jags have drawn the Colts and Titans - two very average offensive teams - in their first two games. They get a below average offense in the Dolphins on Thursday, but I actually feel Miami has some upside here - at least offensively. I don't expect Miami to bang its head against the wall trying to run the football against a Jags defense that has proven to be capable of stopping the run. Instead look for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to sling the football all over the field against a very beatable Jacksonville secondary. Of course, Jags QB Gardner Minshew isn't one to back down from a challenge. Look for him to rise to the occasion in this primetime affair as well. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49 | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The two previous primetime games this week have both sailed 'over' the total. This is probably the game that most believed would have the most shootout potential of the three primetime affairs. I'm actually anticipating a lower-scoring contest than most. The Saints should be able to take away the Raiders offensive strength in this one and that's RB Josh Jacobs. New Orleans was able to stymie Tampa's ground attack a week ago while the Raiders torched a bottom-tier Panthers run defense. Here the Saints should be able to flip the script on Las Vegas. While the Raiders defense is average at best and would generally have its hands full with the likes of the Saints, here I actually feel they can find some success. New Orleans certainly didn't appear to be in midseason form offensively last Sunday and now has to deal with the absence of all-world WR Michael Thomas. While RB Alvin Kamara should get his in this one, I don't see this as a true smash spot for the Saints offense. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 48 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. While I do expect both offenses to have some success moving the football in this game, I also expect plenty of stalled drives, or drives resulting in field goals rather than touchdowns. The real key here is the Chargers offense and whether they can stay on the field long enough to keep Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes off of it. I believe they can. We saw last week that this Chargers offense will be a little different than the one we saw with Phillip Rivers at the helm. I do believe QB Tyrod Taylor can get out and run a little bit on this Chiefs defense, and I also like the Chargers stable of running backs led by Austin Ekeler and rookie Joshua Kelley. The problem for L.A. might be finishing drives with the Chiefs owning a considerable advantage in terms of their pass rush, and the potential of bull-rushing the Chargers o-line which will be missing its anchor, center Mike Pouncey. Look for the L.A. defense, even without a couple of key cogs, to do just enough to contain Mahomes and company to help keep this one 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cardinals OVER 46.5 | 15-30 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be a sneaky shootout in the late window of games on Sunday afternoon. We had a close eye on Washington last Sunday, cashing both the side and total in its upset win over Philadelphia. Here, I look for Washington find some continued success offensively with WR Terry McLaurin in line for a 2020 breakout game matched up against Patrick Peterson. While RB Antonio Gibson didn't get off to the start that most had hoped for, he should play a role against a beatable Cardinals run defense here. The Washington pass rush absolutely feasted on the Eagles decimated offensive line last Sunday. Here, I look for QB Kyler Murray to take advantage of Washington's aggressiveness in the pass rush to get out of the pocket and find his targets downfield if need be. WR DeAndre Hopkins showed tremendous chemistry with Murray in the opener and the duo should build on that performance here. Meanwhile, I consider the Cards to have one of the most underrated RB combos in the league in Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. Look for them to find plenty of open field in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Broncos v. Steelers UNDER 40.5 | 21-26 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll take a shot with the 'under', even with the low posted total in this one on Sunday afternoon. Both teams are playing on a short week following a unique training camp that included no preseason games. The Broncos are a lower-tier offensive team to begin with and are dealing with a number of key injuries, including those to key players WR Courtland Sutton and RB Philip Lindsay. I look for them to employ a rather conservative offense against an aggressive Steelers defense here. While the Broncos defense isn't what it once was, missing a number of key players from recent squads, it can still play well, as we saw this past Monday night against the Titans. In that contest, the Broncos held up well against one of the league's toughest running backs in Derrick Henry, allowing just 3.7 yards per rush. The Steelers offense has a lot of upside with a healthy Big Ben under center, but it may not have to keep its foot on the gas for four quarters in a projected one-sided affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 53.5 | Top | 39-40 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's no question we're dealing with a high posted total in this one but it's high for a reason. I'm expecting a shootout. The Falcons draw a favorable matchup here, at least as far as their offense goes. The Cowboys only gave up 20 points in last week's loss to the Rams but the damage could have been much worse. Dallas is now even more undermanned after losing elite LB Leighton Vander Esch. Their secondary is a weak point, one that the Falcons should be able to take full advantage of. Even against a tough Seahawks pass defense last week, Falcons WR Julio Jones came up with 150+ yards receiving. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott was under duress for much of the game against the Rams last week. We should see a different story unfold here, however, as the Falcons pass rush. While Atlanta has been tough against the run in recent years, it has had little success stopping the pass or containing opposing quarterbacks that can scramble. That plays right into the hands of Prescott and the up-tempo Cowboys offense, which should feast in its home-opener. After a relatively quiet opening week, look for the ultra-talented Dallas receiving corps to put up big numbers here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-19-20 | Tulsa v. Oklahoma State OVER 66 | 7-16 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and Oklahoma State at 12 noon et on Saturday. We should see an old-fashioned shootout between the Golden Hurricane and Cowboys in this early start matchup on Saturday. Tulsa boasts a truly underrated offense entering the 2020 season with a loaded stable of running backs keyed by Shamari Brooks and Corey Taylor II not to mention an experienced senior quarterback in Zach Smith. He passed for over 3,200 yards and 19 touchdowns to go along with nine interceptions last season. He has his top target back in Keylon Stokes who hauled in 62 catches for over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns a year ago. Oklahoma State is obviously loaded on offense, led by RB Chuba Hubbard. QB Spencer Sanders was the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year last season, although this will be his third year with the Cowboys. Expect fireworks on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51 | 17-20 | Loss | -116 | 83 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. While I do lean to the Cowboys minus the points as well, I feel the 'over' is the better way to go in this Sunday night NFC showdown in Los Angeles. The Cowboys offense is well-positioned to get off to a tremendous start in this favorable matchup with the Rams. While Los Angeles has been considered an elite defensive team at times in recent years and boasts plenty of star power with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, it will need to replace a number of key cogs from last year's team and also has to adjust to a new system under new defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. The Cowboys offense is obviously loaded with elite talent at all the skill positions. Defensively, the Cowboys pass rush could wreak havoc against an overmatched Rams offensive line. But even if QB Jared Goff is given a little bit of time in the pocket he should have no trouble exposing what I consider to be one of the league's weaker secondaries. Even without fans, at home in a brand new stadium I don't see the Rams getting embarrassed in this one, and neither team will shy away from a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Cardinals v. 49ers OVER 48 | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This total has been on the rise since opening, and rightfully so in my opinion. Arizona's offense is poised to take off here in year two of Kyler Murray's tenure as starting QB. The Cardinals made arguably the biggest offseason splash by acquiring WR DeAndre Hopkins from the Texans and I expect him to have a positive impact right out of the gates, even after dealing with injury issues this summer. Speaking of injuries, the 49ers defense was also forced to deal with some key ones during training camp. I'm not sure we'll see San Fran's defense firing on all cylinders here in Week 1. With issues on their offensive line, don't count on the 49ers ground game to obliterate the Cardinals defensive front on Sunday. With that being said, that might just force QB Jimmy Garoppolo to take a few more shots down the field. Keep in mind, he completed better than 75% of his passes for eight touchdowns in two meetings with the Cardinals a year ago and Arizona isn't likely to take a big step forward defensively this season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Jets v. Bills UNDER 39.5 | 17-27 | Loss | -104 | 77 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be one of the lowest-scoring games on the Week 1 board, as evidenced by the total sitting in the high-30's at the time of writing. Many have high hopes for the Bills offense with QB Josh Allen expected to take a step forward along with the addition of WR Stefon Diggs. The jury is still out on whether the Bills offense can be explosive through. I do expect them to orchestrate plenty of long drives against a relatively soft Jets defense here in Week 1. With that being said, I also believe New York can chew up some clock of its own with conservative play-calling against a Buffalo defense that can be dominant, but also yields to the short game in an effort to prevent big plays downfield. That's essentially why the Bills set up well as an 'under' team right out of the gates this season. With few gamebreakers on offense, Jets QB Sam Darnold will be forced into a game manager role on Sunday and that bodes well for the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Raiders v. Panthers OVER 47.5 | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 77 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair as the Raiders and Panthers do battle in Carolina on Sunday afternoon. Las Vegas' offense should absolutely feast on a Panthers defense that is missing a ton of talent from a year ago. Keep in mind, the Carolina defense had a tough enough time with all of that talent on hand last season. Now it has the potential to be the weakest defense in the entire league. The Raiders may not have an elite offense - the presence of QB Derek Carr virtually ensures that - but this is simply too good of a matchup not to succeed. Meanwhile, the Panthers will turn the page on the Cam Newton era with Teddy Bridgewater taking over under center. You can be sure he'll be motivated to perform now that he's finally grabbed a starting job. He has enough talent around him, including all world RB Christian McCaffrey, to get off to a strong start against a very beatable Raiders defense. Gone from Las Vegas are Prince Amukamara and Damarious Randall and while they did struggle at times, their experience will be missed in a new-look secondary. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team OVER 42 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 1 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting this to be one of the uglier games on the Week 1 slate, but I'm not so easily convinced. I actually believe we'll see some offensive fireworks as these two familiar NFC East foes square off in Washington. Philadelphia is going to have to play fast on offense in an effort to circumvent its own offensive line issues against Washington's tremendous pass rush. The good news for the Eagles is that Washington's defensive back-end is average at best and I believe the opportunity will be there for Philadelphia's underrated pass-catching corps to come up with some big plays downfield. On the flip side, I'm higher on the Washington offense than most. QB Dwayne Haskins is poised to take a step forward after showing plenty of improvement down the stretch last year. While its WR corps isn't deep, it has a bonafide gamebreaker in Terry McLaurin. And don't sleep on RB Antonio Gibson making something out of nothing in the backfield. The Eagles may be known for their tough defense but they take a hit this year with a number of key cogs no longer in uniform, including Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham. Take the over (10*). |
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09-12-20 | Syracuse v. North Carolina UNDER 65.5 | Top | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Syracuse and North Carolina at 12 noon et on Saturday. Most have this ACC opener pegged as a wild shootout between two offensive-minded teams in Syracuse and North Carolina. I feel the total has simply been set too high. The Orange certainly have a lot of work to do if they want to improve on last year's 5-7 squad that won just two games in ACC play. Their offensive line wasn't good and doesn't figure to be a whole lot better this year. The jury is still out on QB Tommy DeVito, who has shown flashes of brilliance but a real lack of consistency, albeit under duress most of the time. I do expect Syracuse to do a better job of keeping DeVito upright by leaning a little more on the ground game and the quick, short passing attack. The Tar Heels have a better defense than advertised as far as I'm concerned but they do have pass-funnel tendencies, particularly underneath, which could help keep the clock moving in this one. With that being said, I'm not convinced we'll see the Orange offense end many drives with 7's on the board as the Heels have an opportunistic defense that has the ability to tighten up in their own end of the field. The North Carolina offense is loaded. The strength of the offense is obviously their passing game with future NFL prospect QB Sam Howell and a talented group of wide receivers. The good news for Syracuse is that the strength of its defense is in the secondary where it boasts an experienced, underrated group. Like the Heels defense, the Orange secondary has also shown a knack for forcing turnovers. I believe we'll see the Orange do just enough to keep the Heels big play ability at bay for stretches. With a sky-high total, I'll call for enough stalled drives to keep this one 'under' the number. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | 20-34 | Loss | -104 | 56 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This will be the third meeting between these two sudden AFC rivals in the last year, with the previous two resulting in wild, high-scoring affairs with the Texans winning the regular season matchup 31-24 and the Chiefs prevailing when it really mattered in the AFC Divisional Round, 51-31. There's little reason to expect anything other than another shootout as this unique 2020 NFL season kicks off on Thursday night. Yes, the Texans lost all-world WR DeAndre Hopkins, but the cupboard is by no means bare as they brought in the likes of Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb to solidify the receiving corps. We can certainly expect Will Fuller to take a big step forward in Hopkins' absence, and this is a matchup he can feast on a Chiefs secondary that will be missing CB Bashaud Breeland - keeping in mind, this unit struggled at the best of times last season. Kansas City will also be without NT Mike Pennel, which should help open things up for the Texans ground attack which has been re-tooled with the addition of RB David Johnson. We know what we're going to get with the Chiefs electric offense. All of the key pieces are back and the addition of rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire could potentially make this unit even stronger. The Texans weren't able to get to opposing quarterbacks with any consistency last season and did little to help their own cause in the offseason. Look for QB Pat Mahomes to come out all guns blazing here as he feasts on a Texans secondary that is missing a key cog in CB Gareon Conley. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-20 | UAB v. Miami-FL OVER 54 | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between UAB and Miami at 8 pm et on Thursday. The Miami offense was absolutely dreadful a year ago, but perhaps that should have been expected (we noted the Canes offense would likely struggle right out of the gates in a season-opening play on the 'under' against Florida). We should see a different story unfold in 2020, however. QB D'Eriq King gives the Canes a bonafide veteran leader and star on offense. While the cupboard has been cleaned out in terms of the wide receiving corps, it's by no means bare. The Canes are loaded with speed all over the field on offense and King should have no trouble building a solid rapport with terrific TE Brevin Jordan. UAB's defense was terrific stat-wise last season, but that's playing most of its games against C-USA opponents. On the flip side, the Miami defense loses a number of key cogs after a strong 2019 campaign. I'm higher on the UAB offense than most. While the Blazers 45-point outburst last week came against an FCS squad in Central Arkansas, I saw plenty of positives, namely the performance of RB Spencer Brown, who ran for 127 yards and a score on 24 carries. He's in line for a big bounce-back season after playing hurt much of last year. In WR Austin Watkins Jr., the Blazers have a home run threat veteran QB Tyler Johnston can bank on as well. Take the over (10*). |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy UNDER 49.5 | 55-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Navy at 8 pm et on Monday. This total has obviously dropped considerably since opening but I still see some value playing the 'under' at the current number. BYU will be missing TE Matt Bushman - who was expected to be one of the best tight ends in FBS this season. The Cougars are also replacing most of their receiving corps from a year ago. While QB Zach Wilson has plenty of upside, I'm not convinced we'll see him come out bombing away here on Monday night. Navy is also turning to a number of new faces on offense, which is pretty much par for the course for the Midshipmen every year. QB Dalen Morris takes over the reins under center and we can expect a fairly conservative version of the option attack against a solid BYU defense. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis UNDER 74 | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 94 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas State and Memphis at 8 pm et on Saturday. Let's face it, we're dealing with a diminished opening week slate of games due to Covid-19 but this primetime matchup between Arkansas State and Memphis does have the potential to be one of the week's most entertaining affairs. We're looking at a massive posted total for this one and while both offenses have proven explosive in recent years while the defenses have left a lot to be desired, I'm not convinced we're going to see the type of shootout the oddsmakers are projecting. Arkansas State knows it will be hard-pressed to win a shootout with Memphis - it simply doesn't have enough big-time playmakers to come away victorious in that sort of back-and-forth battle. Instead, I look for the Red Wolves to focus on trying to sustain long drives with an experienced offensive line capable of helping them move the chains with some consistency. The issue is that the Memphis defense has plenty of talent and experience, and lots of room for improvement, not to mention motivation get off to a strong start here in the season-opener at home. Memphis is loaded once again on offense but will have to replace star RB Kenneth Gainwell, who has opted out this season. The Tigers will generate plenty of offense but I don't believe it will be enough to get this one north of the sky-high total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army OVER 55 | 0-42 | Loss | -108 | 88 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Middle Tennessee State and Army at 1:30 pm et on Saturday. While I'll admit this total has settled out a little higher than I would like, I still see value playing the 'over' at the current number. Neither squad was an offensive juggernaut a year ago but I'm confident we'll see both teams get off to a positive start thanks to this favorable matchup on Saturday. The real key here is that neither defense showed the ability to get into the backfield with any consistency a year ago, and both units lose a number of key pieces entering the new season. Both teams have plenty of dynamic playmakers at the skill positions on offense and given enough time - as should be the case here - I look for the two offenses to feast. Expect to see enough 'home run plays' to help send this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss UNDER 53.5 | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 54 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between South Alabama and Southern Miss at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'm not expecting a great deal of offensive fireworks as South Alabama and Southern Miss open what promises to be a unique college football season on Thursday night. Southern Miss should be able to name its score against a Jaguars squad that might be one of the weakest teams in the nation (of those playing that is). With that being said, the Golden Eagles are dealing with a number of key departures on offense and might just focus on pounding away on the ground and controlling the clock in this very winnable contest. QB Jack Abraham has shown plenty of promise but he likely won't be asked to do too much in the season-opener. South Alabama's spread offense is going to continue to go through some growing pains. While the Jaguars do boast considerable talent at the wide receiver position, I'm not sure they have the quarterback to make it happen on the scoreboard. Most will be looking for an entertaining, high-scoring affair to open the campaign with this total set in the 50's. I'm find with going the other way and grabbing some perceived value with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs OVER 54 | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between San Francisco and Kansas City at 6:25 pm et on Sunday February 2nd. Last year’s expected Super Bowl shootout between the Patriots and Rams fizzled but I expect a different story to unfold this year as the upstart 49ers take on the Chiefs in Miami. The hype surrounding the 49ers defense continues to build as this game approaches. Yes, the Niners have an elite defense across the board but I believe their aggressive nature (not necessarily in terms of their blitz packages, or lack thereof) may end up costing them in this particular matchup. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has re-emerged as a true running threat now that he has healed from multiple in-season injuries he suffered. That’s to say nothing of his ability to get the ball to his electric pass-catching corps. As good as the Niners are on defense, they’re unquestionably going to have their hands full on Sunday evening. On the flip side, the Chiefs defense really came into its own down the stretch and came up big when the chips were down in two playoff games – out of necessity mind you, after digging themselves early deficits in both of those contests. I’m just not sure the Niners are getting nearly enough credit for the creativity and explosiveness of their offense, which does match up well with the Chiefs defense here. QB Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t filled up the stat sheet in these playoffs, but he hasn’t had to. Playing with big leads for much of those two wins over the Vikings and Packers, Garoppolo was limited to ‘game manager’ duty. Here, we should see him pressed into action and I’m confident he can orchestrate some big plays downfield with his highly-underrated group of pass-catchers. Last year’s dud notwithstanding, the Super Bowl has delivered many exciting, high-scoring affairs in recent years and I’m anticipating another instant classic on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs OVER 52.5 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 53 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Kansas City at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. Even after the Chiefs were involved in an 82-point game against Houston last week, I don't believe the oddsmakers have set the total high enough in this weekend's showdown with upstart Tennessee. RB Derrick Henry will get his for the Titans against a Chiefs defense you can certainly run on, particularly if run-stuffing DT Chris Jones can't go, as expected to be the case. But I don't believe nearly enough people are giving QB Ryan Tannehill any shot at keeping up with Pat Mahomes should this turn into a shootout. I'm actually confidence that Tannehill, who has been one of the league's most efficient passers down the stretch this season, can consistently move the football through the air, and come up with a handful of explosive plays should the Chiefs elect to sell out to slow down Henry. On the flip side, Tennessee doesn't generate nearly enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks to give it any hope that it can contain Mahomes in this one. As we saw in last week's game, albeit against an inferior defense, this Chiefs offense is capable of putting points on the board in a hurry. If the Titans come into this game thinking they can turn it into a slugfest, I think they will be sorely mistaken. I'm anticipating a shootout, just as we saw in the first matchup between these two teams this season. Take the over (10*). |
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01-11-20 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 44 | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -106 | 54 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and San Francisco at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up perfectly as we're dealing with a relatively low total based on all four games last week staying 'under' the total and the fact that the 49ers reputation as a 'defense first' team preceeds them. That's not to mention the notion that the Vikings offense can only go as far as QB Kirk Cousins takes them and the belief that he's in line for a bad game after holding his own in New Orleans last week. I believe the potential is there for a shootout in Santa Clara as the Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday afternoon. The 49ers offense doesn't get nearly enough respect. This is one of the most creative offenses in the NFL today and with extra time to prepare I fully expect Kyle Shanahan's squad to pull out all the stops against a very beatable Vikings defense on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Vikings are riding high after playing a near-perfect road game in New Orleans last Sunday. I'm not a Kirk Cousins doubter. I'm confident we'll see him turn in another strong performance here with all of his weapons likely at his disposal with WR Adam Thielen expected to be good to go. The common narrative is that the 49ers defense is healthy now and poised to dominate the Vikings, but I'm not convinced it will play out that way on the field. Take the over (10*). |
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01-06-20 | Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Louisiana-Lafayette at 7:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' on Monday night as the Redhawks and Ragin' Cajuns meet at the tail-end of Bowl season. Both teams will obviously be well-rested and well-prepared for this one having been idle for over a month. Miami-Ohio does not have an explosive offense by any means and will be best suited to turn this into a slugfest. That may be easier said than done as the Ragin' Cajuns do possess a high-octane offense. With that being said, we've seen the Redhawks rise to the occasion a number of times this season and I'm confident they can do so again here. Louisiana-Lafayette thrived against a number of punchless defenses in the Sun Belt over the course of the season but should find the sledding a little tougher here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-05-20 | Vikings v. Saints OVER 49.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New Orleans at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. This is a shootout waiting to happen as far as I'm concerned and I fully expected to see the total set well into the 50's so we're getting value playing 'over' the current number. The Vikings will likely be in comeback mode for much of the afternoon on Sunday but that should serve their offense well, with QB Kirk Cousins comfortable slinging it around in a dome setting and WRs Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen set to take advantage of a beatable Saints pass defense. While New Orleans has held up well against the run this season, it will undoubtedly have its hands full with a now-healthy Dalvin Cook, who should be a workhorse for the Vikes on Sunday. I don't think Minnesota has much hope of slowing the Saints surging offense, which didn't take its foot off the gas one bit in Week 17. That performance should serve New Orleans well as it rolls into this eruption spot against the Vikings. RB Alvin Kamara re-emerged as a threat both on the ground and in the passing game down the stretch and he should see plenty of usage in this matchup as well. The Vikes don't have anyone that can cover WR Michael Thomas, who is well-positioned to turn in the best performance of any receiver on Wild Card Weekend. Take the over (10*). |
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01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots UNDER 44.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tennessee and New England at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. This projects to be a low-scoring affair between the Titans and Patriots in Foxborough on Saturday night. We've actually won some money playing the 'over' in games involving the Titans this season but Mike Vrabel's squad is in a tough spot here. We know that Bill Bellichick will do everything he can to take away the Titans best offensive weapon, that being RB Derrick Henry. Of course, Tennessee also has emerging superstar WR A.J. Brown, but he should be handled by Pats CB Stephon Gilmore. Of course, New England's offense has seemingly gotten worse as the season has gone on. QB Tom Brady's elbow obviously isn't right, nor is WR Julian Edelman operating at 100%. I do think we'll see the Pats ground game and short passing game find some success in this matchup, but that should only lead to long, clock-churning scoring drives, helping our cause with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans UNDER 44 | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Houston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. I'll take a shot with the 'under' in the first of four NFL Wild Card matchups. I don't think anything is going to come easy for Texans QB DeShaun Watson in this game. The Bills defense has been vulnerable against the run at times, but I don't believe the Texans boast a strong enough ground game to really open up the offense here. The blueprint has already been laid out for slowing Watson - even the Bucs were able to keep him in check in a key late season matchup. On the flip side, the Bills offense doesn't have a particularly high ceiling. Even in games where Josh Allen has erupted, the Bills haven't always put up a boatload of points. I actually feel that both of these teams have a fairly low ceiling as far as point production goes in this contest, which obviously sets us up well with the 'under' as this total has crept up as the week has progressed. Take the under (10*). |
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati UNDER 55.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston College and Cincinnati at 3 pm et on Thursday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than expected on Thursday afternoon. Boston College will be without elite NFL-ready RB A.J. Dillon in this one, severely hampering its offensive attack. Defensively, we saw the Eagles stiffen up down the stretch. Over their final three games they didn't allow a touchdown until the final five minutes of the first half against Florida State, held Notre Dame out of the end zone until the final three minutes of the first half, and didn't allow a Pitt touchdown until the third quarter. Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder has impressed over the course of his Bearcat career but didn't enjoy a banner season in 2019, particularly down the stretch. Whether due to injury or otherwise, Ridder threw multiple touchdown passes just once in his last six games. He also threw for more than 200 yards only once over that stretch. While I do respect the Cincinnati offense, I don't expect to see it go off in this matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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01-01-20 | Minnesota v. Auburn OVER 53 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Auburn at 1 pm et on Wednesday. This game has shootout potential as the upstart Golden Gophers challenge SEC stalwarts Auburn in the Outback Bowl on New Year's Day. Minnesota actually put up some solid defensive numbers during the regular season but was certainly buoyed by a schedule that boasted few offensive juggernauts. There is plenty of reason to be confident in the Golden Gophers offense, however. QB Tanner Morgan threw for at least one touchdown pass in all 12 games this season. While RB Rodney Smith cooled off down the stretch, there's no question the Gophers backfield is capable of busting out here. Auburn took on all comers during the regular season, culminating with a 48-45 win over Alabama on November 30th. QB Bo Nix had his ups and downs and didn't throw multiple touchdown passes in any of his last five games. I do think he can take advantage of a middle of the road Minnesota defense here, however. I've been high on Tigers RB JaTarvious Whitlow all season. He wasn't given a heavy workload but showed flashes of brilliance, most recently running for 114 yards on 16 carries against Alabama. Take the over (10*). |
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12-31-19 | Texas v. Utah OVER 54 | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Utah at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth shootout between the Longhorns and Utes in the Alamo Bowl on Tuesday night. Even though Texas stumbled down the stretch, losing two of its last three games, QB Sam Ehlinger kept rolling along, throwing for over 800 yards and five touchdowns over that stretch. His exploits should be on full display once again here, even against a stellar Utah defense. The Utes won't back down from a shootout. They got caught flat-footed in the Pac-12 Championship Game against Oregon (we won with the Ducks in that game) but should be well prepared and well-suited to go toe-to-toe with the Longhorns. QB Tyler Huntley had just two games where he didn't throw a touchdown pass this season. RB Zack Moss had only four games where he didn't run for over 100 yards and scored at least one touchdown in 10 of 12 games he appeared in. Take the over (10*). |
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12-30-19 | Illinois v. California UNDER 44 | 20-35 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Illinois and California at 4 pm et on Monday. This is a defensive struggle waiting to happen as the Illini face the Golden Bears on Monday afternoon. While we are dealing with a relatively low total, it's warranted in my opinion. These two teams are essentially mirror images of one another with Cal owning the stronger defense statistically. Offensively, both teams were inconsistent over the course of the regular season. While Cal closed things out on a high note, Illinois managed to score just 20 points combined in its final two regular season contests. I'm not convinced we'll see either team open things up on Monday afternoon, knowing that this is a 'first to 20 wins' type of affair. Take the under (10*). |
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12-24-19 | BYU v. Hawaii UNDER 64.5 | Top | 34-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Hawaii at 8 pm et on Monday. When these two teams met a year ago they got into the 70's but I believe we're going to see a lower-scoring affair this time around and we're dealing with a lofty total approaching the mid-60's. BYU QB Zach Wilson appeared in eight games this season and threw more than two touchdowns on only one occasion - that coming against a horrible UMass defense. Meanwhile, Hawaii QB Cole MacDonald is a legend in his own right but had a bit of a tough time once the schedule toughened up this season, failing to throw for 300+ yards since way back on October 20th while throwing more than a single touchdown pass only once over his last six games. BYU is the better defensive team in this matchup but I do think Hawaii can hold its own in that regard here as well, noting that in the Rainbow Warriors most recent game - the MWC Championship - they didn't allow a touchdown until the final two minutes of the first half against Boise State. BYU held all 12 opponents to 27 points or less this season. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The last time we saw the Vikings on the primetime stage they were involved in a shootout with the Seahawks in Seattle. They also lit up the Chargers for a whopping 39 points in last week's blowout victory. Those two results serve to give us a slightly inflated total here in my opinion. Minnesota is highly unlikely to match last week's production in this late season division game. On the flip side, while the Vikings defense has been inconsistent, I do think they can hold a mediocre Packers offense at bay on Monday night. Since the start of November, Green Bay has scored more than 24 points in a game only once, and that performance came at the hands of an awful Giants defense. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair on Monday night in Minnesota. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-19 | Marshall v. Central Florida OVER 59.5 | 25-48 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Marshall and Central Florida at 2:30 pm et on Monday. Central Florida didn't receive quite as much hype this season than it has in previous years but it was an offensive juggernaut nonetheless, ranking fourth in the nation in total yardage per game and sixth in points scored per game. The Knights are going to get theirs offensively in this matchup. Marshall's good run of defensive play down the stretch had everything to do with a weak slate of opponents. With that being said, the Thundering Herd are a perennial Bowl team - or at least they have been over the last decade. More often than not they're able to generate plenty of offense, scoring 30+ points in three of their last four Bowl appearances. I don't expect them to roll over in this daunting matchup and that should set us up for a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-19 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 50.5 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We are dealing with a high total in this matchup - one of the highest on the Week 16 board in fact - but I believe it's warranted. The Seahawks may be an elite team but they by no means possess an elite defense. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray should be afforded plenty of time to move the football, both through the air and on the ground. Off last week's confidence-building performance against the Browns this is another positive spot for the Arizona offense as a whole. Meanwhile, the Seahawks enjoyed a bounce-back performance of their own last week in Carolina and should see continued success against a very beatable Cards defense Unless the Seahawks completely overlook the Cards, which I don't see happening, they should be able to score at will throughout this game on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-19 | Saints v. Titans OVER 50 | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. The common line of thinking here is that the Saints offense is in for a rough afternoon in Tennessee, playing on a short week off Monday's blowout win over the Colts. I actually believe we're going to see a shootout here. The Titans are missing both of their starting cornerbacks, which spells trouble as they try to contain all-world WR Michael Thomas, who is coming off another stellar performance. The Saints defense is dealing with some key injurys as well, most notably Rankins and Davenport up front. Of course, the Titans offense has come around since QB Ryan Tannehill took over the reins. He's in for a fine bounce-back performance against a Saints defense that wasn't really tested in their Monday night win over the hapless Colts. UPDATE: Titans RB Derrick Henry is not expected to play due to a hamstring injury. Still confident in the over as I believe the Saints banged up defense can be run on and Tannehill can find success in potential catch-up mode. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-19 | UAB v. Appalachian State UNDER 48 | Top | 17-31 | Push | 0 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UAB and Appalachian State at 9 pm et on Saturday. My first look is usually to the 'over' in the New Orleans Bowl as we've seen plenty of shootouts on the fast track of the Superdome over the years. However, in this case, I believe we'll see a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are calling for. UAB topped out at 38 points this season, and generally struggled offensively with some lackluster talent at the skill positions on offense. Keep in mind, the Blazers benefited from facing the likes of Akron, Rice and UTEP during the regular season - arguably three of the weakest teams in the nation. Here, they'll be facing a stiff challenge in Appalachian State. The Mountaineers could be forgiven for not being all that interested in this Bowl game. After all their head coach has bolted, and they just played in this same Bowl game a year ago, winning in a walk. Just not sure we're going to see a great deal of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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12-21-19 | Florida International v. Arkansas State UNDER 60.5 | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida International and Arkansas State at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. This one will be pegged as a shootout and while it may develop into just that, I'm not sure it will eclipse the lofty posted total. I actually think the two defenses in this matchup can make the opposing offenses rather one-dimensional. I have a lot of respect for the Arkansas State offense led by QB Layne Hatcher but while he's capable of bombing away, they're also going to need to move the football on the ground, which could be a tall task with RB Marcel Murray nursing a bad ankle. Meanwhile, the FIU offense has been inconsistent at best, coming up big for stretches but not able to really sustain anything for much of the campaign. Arkansas State actually faced some explosive offenses in the Sun Belt Conference this season and will be better for it in this matchup with the Panthers. Take the under (10*). |
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12-21-19 | Texans v. Bucs OVER 50 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Saturday. I probably don't need to tell you that this is a shootout waiting to happen on Saturday afternoon in Tampa. The Texans were expected to get involved in a shootout in Tennessee last Sunday but that matchup fizzled somewhat, with Houston ultimately securing a much-needed 24-21 win. Here, I don't think there's any chance of the offenses wilting as both groups are in tremendous position to light it up all afternoon long. Of course, Tampa Bay is missing its top two wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin but that only serves to give us a lower total to work with here. QB Jameis Winston will continue to bomb away on his march toward the pass yardage title for 2019. Meanwhile, the Bucs ground game has the potential to also go off against a Texans run defense that is really struggling, giving up north of 4.6 yards per rush. Tampa Bay should be able to effectively limit the Texans ground game but I have full confidence in DeShaun Watson to do enough through the air (and with his legs) to help get this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-20-19 | Kent State v. Utah State OVER 67.5 | 51-41 | Win | 100 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kent State and Utah State at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Utah State should absolutely have its way with the Kent State defense in this game. As I've said on numerous occasions this season, I really do believe the Golden Flashes have one of the worst defenses in the country. With Aggies QB Jordan Love and RB Gerold Bright cleared to play, they should absolutely shred an overmatched Kent State defense. The pointspread does say a lot in this particular matchup, however. I think Utah State is a relatively short favorite for a reason. Kent State seemed to get stronger and more consistent offensively as the season went on, and it should find plenty of success against a beatable Utah State defense that has allowed 30+ points in four of its last six games. This total is high but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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12-15-19 | Texans v. Titans OVER 51 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. Who would have thought we'd see a game between these two AFC South rivals feature a total north of 50? This is a series that generally features totals in the low-40s. Keep in mind, this will be the first of two matchups between the Texans and Titans in the next three weeks. Both defenses are shells of their former selves, largely due to a number of key injuries. Texans QB DeShaun Watson should have a field day against the Titans suddenly leaky, injury-plagued secondary, even if WR Will Fuller can't go. Meanwhile, QB Ryan Tannehill has earned a new lease on his football life in Tennessee and is set up nicely to tear apart a struggling Texans defense. Of course, RB Derrick Henry, who was plagued by a hamstring injury last week but still put up gawdy numbers, should be able to run wild against a Houston defense that has been particularly bad in recent weeks. It all sets up for a back and forth shootout in Nashville on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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12-14-19 | Army v. Navy UNDER 40.5 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday. Another year, another Army-Navy 'under'. We've been in on virtually all of the 'unders' during the current streak in this series and there's no reason to jump ship here. Yes, Navy put up some gawdy offensive numbers this season but that was largely schedule-based. Army showed flashes of brilliance at times, but really struggled when stepping up in class, as is the case here. These two teams couldn't be any more familiar with one another and that familiarity leads to low-scoring results every year. If anything things are getting tighter, with each of the last five meetings totaling 38 points or less and all five of those games being decided by a touchdown or less. Take the under (10*). |
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12-12-19 | Jets v. Ravens OVER 44.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Baltimore at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Everyone seems to be assuming the Jets aren't going to be able to score much at all in this game but I'm not sure that will be the case at M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday night. The Ravens are allowing just shy of five yards per rush this season which opens the door for Jets RB Le'Veon Bell, who should have the backfield all to himself with Bilal Powell expected to miss. Meanwhile, the Ravens should score at will in this mismatch. The Jets defense is undermanned and quite simply banged up, likely missing both Jamal Adams and Quinnen Williams for this one. That opens the door for another monster performance from QB Lamar Jackson. Also look for a re-introduction to WR Hollywood Brown on Thursday night as the Ravens run up the score on the Jets. Take the over (10*). |
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12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles OVER 44.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is an unappealing Monday night matchup between two downtrodden NFC East squads. With that being said, I do think we'll see some offensive fireworks in this one. The Giants will trot out QB Eli Manning for what could be his last ride. While Manning does present a great deal of upside, I do think he can do some damage working with a strong group of receivers, not to mention a returning TE Evan Engram. Keep in mind, the Eagles secondary is bottom of the barrel as far as I'm concerned. On the flip side, this is a smash spot for Eagles QB Carson Wentz coming off a much-needed breakout against the lowly Dolphins last Sunday. Wentz's wide receiver corps is getting healthier and he has a two-headed monster to work with at TE in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Throw in dynamic rookie RB Miles Sanders and I'm confident we'll see the Philadelphia offense move the football and score at will against a weak Giants defense that doesn't generate any sort of pass rush. Take the over (10*). |
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12-06-19 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 46 | 37-15 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Utah at 8 pm et on Friday. This is a relatively low total but I believe it's warranted. Oregon hasn't been the offensive juggernaut we've been accustomed to seeing in previous years this season, even with top NFL QB prospect Justin Herbert at the helm of the offense. On the flip side, the Ducks defense has held its own - this isn't a team that got involved in a ton of track meets this season. Utah meanwhile closed out the regular season with some strong performances offensively, but the story is its elite defense, which I believe can handle this matchup with the Ducks. The Utes come in having allowed a grand total of 25 points over their last three contests. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. After watching a thrilling, high-scoring affair on Monday Night Football, look for completely the opposite on Thursday as the Cowboys and Bears do battle at Soldier Field. The Bears defense has sagged lately but I'm not convinced Dallas' disjointed offense can take full advantage. RB Ezekiel Elliott will get his but Dak Prescott may struggle in hostile territory on Thursday night. Meanwhile, Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky played fairly well on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit but figures to regress once again versus an aggressive Cowboys defense here. The Bears have become completely one-dimensional on offense and that doesn't serve them well against a better than advertised Dallas secondary coming off a poor showing against the Bills last week. Take the under (10*). |
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11-26-19 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 51.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Western Michigan and Northern Illinois at 7 pm et on Tuesday. There's little reason to have much faith in either of these offenses even though the 'over' has cashed in each of Western Michigan's last two games and six straight contests involving Northern Illinois. Keep in mind, Broncos QB Jon Wassink had thrown for under 200 yards in four straight games prior to last week's 322-yard, three-touchdown outburst against Ohio. On Senior Night, I do expect to see the Northern Illinois defense show up as the Huskies wrap up what has been a highly-disappointing campaign. NIU QB Marcus Childers has been ineffective since taking over for Ryan Bowers, who continues to recover from a concussion. Childers has thrown for more than 100 yards just once this season. While he is gaining 6.5 yards per rush, that's largely due to a relatively small sample size. In the last two seasons he averaged 3.3 and 2.7 yards per rush. Both offenses are capable of moving the football on the ground with terrific lead backs. That should only serve to keep the clock moving in this one, however, as Western Michigan looks to pick up a win and move on to postseason play. Take the under (10*). |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams UNDER 47.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is being pegged as a potential shootout based on the total we're working with but I don't expect this non-conference affair to play out that way on the field. The Ravens will be hard-pressed to match their last two performances, in which they scored 49 and 41 points against far inferior defenses in the Bengals and Texans. The Rams defense does match up well with the Ravens dynamic offense as they allow just 3.5 yards per rush this season and don't give up a lot of big passing plays downfield. Baltimore and QB Lamar Jackson in particular is certainly in line for a 'come back to Earth' game as it travels across the country for this primetime affair. On the flip side, there's little reason to have a lot of confidence in the Rams offense at this point. This is a unit that has underachieved due to injuries and otherwise all season long and that's unlikely to change against an underrated Ravens defense. Baltimore will give up yardage on the ground but I'm not convinced Los Angeles will be able to take full advantage. The Ravens have been generating a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and have a shutdown tandem in the secondary capable of containing the likes of Kupp, Woods and Cooks. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-19 | Jaguars v. Titans OVER 41.5 | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Tennessee at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This is by no means a shootout on paper but I do think the Jaguars and Titans can find their way 'over' the relatively low posted total in what could be a sneaky-entertaining affair on Sunday afternoon. Last week, we saw Jags QB Nick Foles throw the ball 47 times in a blowout loss in Indianapolis and I expect him to be let loose once again here as the Titans are likely to stymie the Jags ground attack. That's not to say that Jags RB Leonard Fournette won't be a factor as he should certainly play a role in the Jacksonville passing game. Titans RB Derrick Henry is coming off a big performance last week and should absolutely run wild against a Jags defense that has somewhat surprisingly been torched by opposing ground games for over 5.4 yards per rush this season. QB Ryan Tannehill has played well but still doesn't instill a great deal of confidence. With that being said, since dealing away CB Jalen Ramsey, the Jags are beatable through the air and the Titans coaching staff appears to have full confidence in Tannehill. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-19 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 47 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. We're being given a favorable total here thanks to the Eagles low-scoring result in poor weather conditions at home against a suddenly punchless Patriots offense last week. Here, I'm anticipating a shootout as the Seahawks roll into the Linc to face the Eagles. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson should enjoy a ton of success against a very beatable Eagles secondary in this one. I continue to profess that Seattle's wide receiver duo (and now trio) of Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Josh Gordon is one of the most underappreciated units in the entire NFL. Also look for Seahawks RB Chris Carson to get involved heavily in the passing game in this one as the Eagles have had no success defending opponent's short passing attacks this season. On the flip side, likely forced into comeback mode for much of this game, I do expect a big game from Eagles QB Carson Wentz. The Philadelphia wide receiving corps is undermanned right now but it can involve the running backs and certain the tight ends, who draw a favorable matchup here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-19 | Troy v. UL-Lafayette OVER 71 | 3-53 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Troy and Louisiana-Lafayette at 5 pm et on Saturday. Regardless how this game plays out, I expect it to find its way 'over' the lofty total. We won with Troy last week as it rolled to a 63-27 win over what I consider to be one of the nation's worst teams in Texas State. Here, the Trojans should find the going a lot tougher, although I do have faith in QB Kaleb Barker to get them into the end zone early and often. Barker has now thrown for at least 330 yards in four straight games, racking up 14 touchdowns compared to just one interception over that stretch. Louisiana-Lafayette will pose a challenge defensively to be sure, but with Troy likely to be forced into comeback mode, I'm confident we'll see Barker bomb away with his excellent group of receivers all afternoon long. The Ragin' Cajuns have more of a run-oriented offensive attack with Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas leading the way. With that in mind, they should be able to run wild against a very beatable Troy defense here. We're talking about a Troy defense that even against a usually punchless Texas State offense allowed around 400 yards of total offense and 27 points last week. Note that Louisiana-Lafayette has scored over 30 points in eight of 10 games this season and should be able to better than number here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-20-19 | Toledo v. Buffalo UNDER 54.5 | 30-49 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toledo and Buffalo at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. Toledo is coming off a string of high-scoring games, with the 'over' cashing in each of its last four contests. I look for that streak to end here, however, as the Rockets face a tough challenge in the form of the Buffalo Bulls on Wednesday night. Note that the Rockets offense has been far better at home than on the road this season. Save for a big performance at Colorado State (who owns one of the weakest defenses in the nation), Toledo has scored just 45 points combined in its other three road tilts. Last year, Buffalo went into the Glass Bowl and held the Rockets to only 17 points in a game that featured a closing total of 63 points. The 'over' has cashed in the Bulls last three games, with their offense getting loose against the likes of Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan and Kent State. They should find the going a little tougher here, even if Toledo hasn't looked particularly stout on the defensive side of the football over its last few games. Take the under (10*). |
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11-19-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 54.5 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Northern Illinois' 31-28 win over Toledo last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday night as the Huskies return home to host Eastern Michigan. I did like what I saw from the Huskies defense for the first three quarters in that game anyway. Northern Illinois allowed a touchdown with just under six minutes remaining in the first quarter against Toledo but then didn't give up any more points until a minute into the fourth quarter. The Huskies know they can't become complacent defensively in this one after giving up 21 fourth quarter points before kicking a game-winning field goal in the closing seconds last week. Eastern Michigan will certainly be up for this one, knowing that a win would make it Bowl eligible with a game to spare. Note that Northern Illinois has scored 24 points or less in six of 10 games this season. The Huskies put up 26 points the last time they faced the Eagles last season, but that was a stronger NIU squad that won eight games. Take the under (10*). |
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11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 49.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
NFL NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout written all over it in on Sunday afternoon. The Saints got caught looking right past the Falcons last week as they could muster only nine points in a blowout loss, at home no less. This is an ideal bounce-back spot, however, as Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense should absolutely ether a weak Bucs defense. WR Michael Thomas has quietly been putting together a record-setting campaign and he should go off in this particular matchup. Meanwhile, the Saints defense is dealing with a number of key absences right now, the least of which being CB Marshon Lattimore, who would have likely shadowed Bucs standout WR Mike Evans. The New Orleans defense simply hasn't lived up to expectations this season and could be in for another rough ride against an increasingly aggressive Bucs offense on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Marshall UNDER 55 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisiana Tech and Marshall at 7 pm et on Friday. Louisiana Tech has been absolutely mowing down the competition in C-USA play, but has also faced an extremely light schedule recently. Since the start of October, the Bulldogs have gone bye week, UMass, Southern Miss, UTEP and North Texas. Those four opponents represent four of the weakest defensive teams in the country. While the Bulldogs have absolutely scored at will over the last month, this is the same team that was held to 20 points against Grambling State and put up only 23 points at Rice. Marshall isn't likely to blow the doors off of Louisiana Tech here, and that should lend itself to a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers are calling for. The Thundering Herd were in an absolute smash spot offensively last time out against Rice, but could only muster 20 points. QB Isaiah Green has proven to be a game manager more than anything else, throwing for fewer than 270 yards in all but one game this season, while managing more than single touchdown pass on just three occasions. Take the under (10*). |
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11-14-19 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh OVER 50 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Pittsburgh at 8 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams come in well-rested having not played since November 2nd, giving them ample time to gameplan for this key mid-November showdown. North Carolina QB Sam Howell has thrown for over 340 yards in three of his last four games, compiling an incredible 15 touchdown passes over that stretch. That's not to mention the Tar Heels very capable backfield tandem of Javonte Williams and Michael Carter. Pitt's offense has left a lot to be desired over its last few games, all of the lower-scoring variety, but I expect a big bounce-back here. QB Kenny Pickett has thrown four interceptions over his last two games, but I don't expect him to simply be a game manager in this contest. The Panthers know they'll need to go on the attack to keep pace with an improving Tar Heels offense, and I look for them to find some success with the Pickett-to-Ffrench connection. Maurice Ffrench hasn't hauled in a touchdown in his last two games, but should find the end zone against a beatable Tar Heels secondary here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-13-19 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo UNDER 53 | 31-28 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Northern Illinois and Toledo at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Toledo has been involved in back-to-back high-scoring shootouts, flaming a couple of bad defenses in Eastern Michigan and Kent State in posting consecutive victories. I expect the Rockets to face a little more resistance against rival Northern Illinois here. The Huskies are fresh off a beatdown at the hands of Central Michigan but will undoubtedly get up for this game, knowing they need to run the table over their final three games to become Bowl eligible. With a win here, that would certainly still be well within the realm of possibility, noting they have two home games to close out the regular season. Note that Northern Illinois has held five of nine opponents this season to 27 points or less. The Huskies biggest issue has been their lack of consistent offensive production, scoring 24 points or less in seven of nine contests. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron OVER 46 | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Michigan and Akron at 6 pm et on Tuesday. Akron has scored a grand total of just nine points over its last four games but here the Zips have a fine opportunity to bust out against a weak Eastern Michigan defense. The Eagles have allowed 30+ points in five of nine contests this season, while also giving up 29 points against FCS opponent Central Connecticut State. Prior to its current lull, Akron had scored 60 points over its previous three games. Defensively, the Zips have only managed to limit their points allowed thanks to game script. Make no mistake, this is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. Eastern Michigan is in a clear 'get-right' spot offensively after getting trounced by Buffalo at home last time out. Take the over (10*). |
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11-09-19 | UTSA v. Old Dominion UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UTSA and Old Dominion at 2 pm et on Saturday. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this matchup on Saturday afternoon. The UTSA defense hasn't been performing well lately but has also faced the likes of UAB and Texas A&M in two of its last three games. Here, it takes a big step down in class against a punchless Old Dominion offense. The Monarchs battled hard but ultimately fell a touchdown short in a 24-17 setback at Florida International last week. ODU has now been held to 17 points or less in five consecutive games. The Monarchs haven't always been stout defensively this season but catch a favorable matchup against a banged-up and talent-shy Roadrunners offense. Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-19 | TCU v. Oklahoma State UNDER 59 | 27-34 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between TCU and Oklahoma State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. TCU is coming off a huge 37-27 win over Texas last Saturday and fresh off that offensive breakout, most are expecting a shootout in Stillwater this week. I’m not so easily convinced. Keep in mind, prior to last week’s win, the Horned Frogs had scored just 41 points combined in dropping back-to-back games against Iowa State and Kansas State – both on the road. Oklahoma State by no means possesses an elite defense but I do think the Cowboys can keep the Horned Frogs inconsistent offense in check on Saturday. On the flip side, the TCU defense has shown signs of turning things around over the last couple of weeks. They didn’t give up a touchdown until four minutes into the second quarter last week against Texas and when it mattered most they stepped up, allowing just one second half touchdown. The Horned Frogs will undoubtedly have their hands full trying to slow down dynamic Cowboys RB Chuba Hubbard on Saturday but it’s worth noting that they’ve allowed just one 100+ yard rusher this season and that was Iowa State QB Brock Purdy, who gained 102 yards on the ground against them. Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-19 | Northern Illinois v. Central Michigan UNDER 51 | 10-48 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Northern Illinois and Central Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in Northern Illinois’ last game, a 49-0 rout of lowly Akron last Saturday. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. The Huskies offense has been inconsistent this season and will certainly be stepping up in class here off the win over the Zips. I’m confident we’ll see them keep their offensive gameplan focused on the ground where RB Tre Harbison has been terrific. That strategy should help keep the chains, and more important for us, the clock moving. Central Michigan entered last week’s date with Buffalo on a serious roll offensively but that had more to do with the level of opposition it had faced through the first three weeks of October than anything else (the Chippewas faced Eastern Michigan, New Mexico State and Bowling Green over a three-week stretch). Last week, the Chips could only manage 20 points in a blowout loss to Buffalo, turning the football over four times in the process. Much like NIU, I look for CMU to keep the football on the ground for much of the afternoon on Saturday, with RB Jonathan Ward having rushed for over 100 yards in four of his last five games. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-19 | Navy v. Connecticut UNDER 55 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Connecticut at 8 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Navy's high-scoring win over Tulane last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Midshipmen hit the road to face lowly UConn on a short week. Last week's high-scoring result was certainly game script dependent as Tulane simply couldn't stop the Navy offense early on, digging a 24-0 hole just five minutes into the second quarter. From there things really opened up. I expect a different story to unfold here. Connecticut stunningly put up 56 points in a win at UMass last week but will face a much tougher challenge here. Note that prior to last week's performance, the Huskies had scored 22 points or less in five straight games and had topped out at 24 points, that coming in a season-opening win over FCS squad Wagner. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers OVER 43 | 14-27 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll keep it simple with my analysis of this play on Monday night. Both offenses have struggled at times this season, due to injuries and otherwise but I do feel the two units have some upside heading into this one. The Dolphins were finally able to get things going a little bit last week, scoring 21 points against a good defense in Buffalo. WR Davante Parker has now scored a touchdown in three straight games which is saying something for an offense that couldn't do anything earlier in the campaign. RB Kenyon Drake didn't travel with the team as he is likely to be traded before the deadline but his absence doesn't concern me all that much. Look for the Fins to do what they can to move the football through the air in this particular matchup. The Steelers are in a smash spot offensively against an awful, undermanned Miami defense. Pittsburgh will get QB Mason Rudolph back under center following its bye week and I'm confident he'll can march the offense up and down the field against a very beatable opponent. Take the over (10*). |
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10-27-19 | Panthers v. 49ers UNDER 41.5 | 13-51 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair in London two weeks ago as they routed the Bucs in a key divisional win. Here, Carolina hits the road to face the upstart 49ers and could be in for a rough ride against one of the best defensive teams in the league. San Francisco is allowing just over four yards per rush this season and should be able to effectively limit Panthers do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers pass defense just doesn't give up big plays and that sets them up well against the Panthers downfield passing game led by elite athletes Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore. I don't expect the Carolina defense to roll over. The Panthers 'd' catches a favorable matchup against a 49ers offense that has been good, but certainly not great this season. QB Jimmy Garoppolo should be under pressure for much of the afternoon with offensive linemen Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey still sidelined. While the Panthers have given up their share of yardage to opposing ground games, the 49ers backfield isn't all that imposing. Expect a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-19 | Notre Dame v. Michigan UNDER 51.5 | 14-45 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Notre Dame and Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ when these two teams hooked up to kick off the season last year and I’ll make the same play here. The Irish are coming off three consecutive relatively high-scoring affairs in which they put up a combined 117 points. I’m not counting on QB Ian Book and the Notre Dame offense to bust out again here, however. Michigan has one of the best defenses in the country, and will certainly be up for this showdown at the Big House. I’m confident we’ll see the Irish lean heavily on RB Tony Jones Jr. off three straight 100+ yard rushing performances but he’ll be stepping up in competition after running all over Virginia, Bowling Green and USC. We’ve already seen the Wolverines offense get stymied on a number of occasions this season and should expect no different here. I don’t think we’ll see Jim Harbaugh throw QB Shea Patterson to the wolves here. Look for him to once again be asked to manage the game and avoid the big mistakes against an opportunistic Irish defense. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-19 | Texas v. TCU UNDER 57 | 27-37 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Texas and TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in TCU’s loss at Kansas State last week and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Horned Frogs didn’t find the end zone until the second quarter in last week’s contest, and when the game was on the line, couldn’t score a single touchdown in the game’s final 23+ minutes. The fact is, TCU has had considerable offensive success in just two of five games this season and one of those came against lowly Kansas, who Texas hung 50 points on last week. The Longhorns know they’ll need to be better defensively after giving up a stunning 48 points against the Jayhawks last Saturday. I’m confident they’ll respond favorably here after holding TCU to just 16 points in last year’s matchup. Note that just two weeks ago, Texas held mighty Oklahoma out of the end zone from just under 10 minutes left in the first quarter until midway through the third quarter. The Longhorns may not have an elite defense this season, but it’s not as if they’re facing an offensive juggernaut on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-19 | Akron v. Northern Illinois UNDER 43.5 | 0-49 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Akron and Northern Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Akron’s offense couldn’t have looked much worse than it did in last week’s 21-0 loss at home against Buffalo (we won with the Bulls in that game). Rather than fade the Zips again here, we’ll turn our attention to the total and back the ‘under’ as they hit the road to face Northern Illinois. One area where I do expect some improvement from the Zips offensively is on the ground. You can run on the Huskies this season and that bodes well for Akron as it looks to effectively shorten this game and churn out long drives. That of course also serves our purposes well with a play on the ‘under’. Northern Illinois lost starting QB Ross Bowers to a concussion in last week’s loss to Miami-Ohio. Regardless who is under center, the Huskies have had a tough time getting anything going offensively this season. Save for a few breakdowns from opposing defenses resulting in big plays, Northern Illinois has been kept at bay for much of the campaign. RB Tre Harbison has seen his workload increase over the last few games and has had some success, but it’s worth noting that he has reached the end zone in just two of six contests this season. He’ll likely be the focal point of the Huskies offense on Saturday but that only strengthens our position on the ‘under’ as he should be able to help NIU churn out long, time-consuming drives against a Zips defense that has at the very least been able to limit opposing passing attacks, not allowing a quarterback to throw for over 200 yards since September 21st against Troy. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-19 | Tulane v. Navy UNDER 58 | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tulane and Navy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams combined to score 57 points in last year’s matchup – a narrow one-point Green Wave victory. I’m anticipating a lower-scoring affair this time around. Tulane is fresh off a beatdown at the hands of Memphis last week. The Green Wave are certainly a better defensive team than they showed in that contest. Memphis went into that one highly-motivated after suffering its first loss of the season the week previous at Temple. Navy has been rolling along, scoring a whopping 114 points over the course of its current three-game winning streak. Keep in mind, those wins came against Air Force, Tulsa and South Florida. Just two weeks ago Tulane gave up only seven points in a blowout win over Connecticut, allowing the Huskies to gain just 134 yards through the air and less than 100 on the ground. This is obviously a much tougher matchup but my point is, the Green Wave are capable of stiffening up defensively. Remember, earlier this season they gave up just 24 points on the road against Auburn, holding the Tigers off the scoreboard for the entire first quarter and giving up just a single touchdown in the second half. Navy’s lone defeat this season came at the hands of aforementioned Memphis. After allowing a touchdown with just under 10 minutes left in the first quarter, the Middies didn’t give up another offensive touchdown until nearly six minutes into the third quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 43.5 | Top | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New England and New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair on Monday night. The Patriots offense is certainly banged-up right now with virtually their entire wide receiving corps nursing various ailments. I expect RBs Sony Michel and James White to be the focal point of the offense on Monday night at the Meadowlands, which plays into our hands as the ground game and short passing attack helps keep the clock moving. We can count on Bill Bellichick and more specifically CB Stephon Gilmore to take away the Jets best weapon through the air, that being WR Robby Anderson. New England will likely allow the Jets to pound away with RB Le'Veon Bell, but to limited success. QB Sam Darnold returned with a big game against the Cowboys last week, but look for him to come back to earth against a familiar divisional opponent on Monday Night Football. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears UNDER 37 | 36-25 | Loss | -101 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between New Orleans and Chicago at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is the lowest total on this week’s board, but it’s warranted in my opinion. The Saints keep rolling along without QB Drew Brees but their success certainly hasn’t come on the strength of their offense. In a favorable matchup against the Jaguars last Sunday they managed only 13 points with QB Teddy Bridgewater resuming his role as game manager, throwing for 240 yards and a single touchdown while RB Latavius Murray led the backfield in rush yards with only 44. Alvin Kamara remains banged-up and there’s some doubt whether he’ll even be able to play on Sunday. Either way, I have little confidence in the Saints putting many points on the board against an elite and rested Bears defense that should be in a foul mood following a loss to the Raiders in Oakland. On the flip side, the Bears will welcome back QB Mitchell Trubisky but I’m not counting on big returns against a quality Saints defense. Chicago’s offense has little upside right now and with Saints CB Marshon Lattimore likely to erase WR Allen Robinson and RB David Montgomery still trying to carve out a true lead back role, we can anticipate another (far) less-than-explosive performance at Soldier Field. This one has slugfest written all over it. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-19 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 43.5 | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. With the Vikings coming off a high-scoring affair against the Eagles last week this is an ideal spot to jump back on the ‘under’ as they hit the road to face the Lions, who are playing on a short week following Monday night’s highly-disappointing loss in Green Bay. We’ve seen Minnesota really open up its offense in the last couple of weeks with WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs taking turns going off. Here, I think we can count on a return to form from the Vikings offense as they’ll likely lean heavily on RB Dalvin Cook and even backup Alexander Mattison, who played a key role in last week’s victory. The Lions run defense has struggled at times, including on Monday night when it allowed Packers RB Jamaal Williams to run wild. I do look for Detroit to bounce back in that regard here at home, however, and feel that the Lions pass defense does match up well against the Vikes dynamic tandem of Thielen and Diggs. Detroit got off to a nice start offensively at Lambeau Field on Monday but couldn’t sustain it – a common theme with this offense over the years. Here, the Lions face the unenviable task of playing on a short week against one of the league’s best defenses. Note that Minnesota excels at pressuring opposing quarterbacks and has held opposing running backs well south of four yards per rush this season. Detroit simply has too few reliable options in its passing game to worry me all that much against a good, but not great Vikes pass defense. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants OVER 50.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arizona and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We have another shootout waiting to happen in a game involving the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. After cashing with the ‘over’ in last week’s win over the Falcons, there’s no reason to jump ship here. Arizona has the perfect make-up as an ‘over’ team in today’s NFL. The Cardinals offense can move the football in a myriad of different ways and plays up-tempo regardless the situation. Their defense is one of the weakest in the league. I’ll get back to that in a moment. Here we can expect Arizona to absolutely throttled a weak Giants defense that allows just under five yards per rush and have done nothing to slow any opposing pass game with a pulse this season. The Giants offense continues to boast plenty of upside with rookie QB Daniel Jones under center. This week Jones will get some much needed help with the return of do-it-all RB Saquon Barkley. Running backs have absolutely terrorized the Cards defense this season, both on the ground and through the air. Arizona will get CB Patrick Peterson back from suspension this week but how effective he’ll be remains to be seen. I don’t think it’s simply a matter of his return curing all that ails this defense. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-19 | Rams v. Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This projects as potentially one of the highest-scoring shootouts of the entire season as both offenses come in ready to fully expose the weaknesses of the opposing defenses. The Rams secondary is an absolute mess right now and don’t let their early week acquisition of CB Jalen Ramsey steer you otherwise. Ramsey hasn’t suited up since September and now comes in following a limited week of practice with his new team. His reward will be lining up against Falcons all-world WR Julio Jones who is finally in line for a big breakout performance on Sunday. While the Falcons have been awful in the win-loss column, their offense continues to churn along with QB Matt Ryan posting monster numbers. Nothing changes against the Rams truly disappointing defense this week. On the flip side, we’ve also seen the Rams offense sputter due in large part to the inefficiency of QB Jared Goff, not to mention their offensive line’s inability to pass-protect. That should change here as the Falcons defense has done nothing to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Given a clean pocket I’m confident Goff can tear apart this struggling Falcons defense. After last week’s debacle it’s unlikely the Rams will lean heavily on their ground attack here, instead electing to attack the Atlanta defense through the air. Count on big performances from Kupp, Woods, Cooks et al as this one develops into a back-and-forth shootout. I’m not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough. Take the over (10*). |
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10-19-19 | Tulane v. Memphis UNDER 59.5 | 17-47 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tulane and Memphis at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Tulane’s rout of Connecticut last Saturday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Green Wave will obviously be facing a much tougher challenge this time around. Note that Tulane hasn’t really been overly tested but when it did go on the road to face Auburn it managed just six points. Memphis isn’t Auburn but will pose a difficult challenge. Last week, the Tigers didn’t bring their ‘A’ game defensively, digging themselves a 23-7 first half hole before rallying. I do give them credit for stiffening up in the second half, allowing just a single touchdown in the game’s final 30 minutes. Look for the Tigers to come out of the gate much stronger back at home. The Green Wave by no means possess an elite defense, but we have certainly seen positive signs. Going back to that matchup with Auburn, they held the Tigers out of the end zone until the second quarter and also went a stretch of 22 game minutes from the second quarter into the third quarter before allowing another touchdown. When these two teams squared off last season Tulane rolled to a 40-24 victory. I expect this one to be more tightly contested, which should lend itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-19 | TCU v. Kansas State UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 41 h 26 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Kansas State at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. Things really got away from TCU in its most recent game as it dropped an ugly 49-24 decision on the road against Iowa State. I look for the Horned Frogs to do a much better job of controlling proceedings against Kansas State on Saturday and that lends itself to a much lower-scoring affair. Keep in mind, that game against Iowa State essentially turned on a Cyclones defensive fumble return for a touchdown three minutes into the second quarter. Offensively, TCU has shown flashes of brilliance but those flashes have been few and far between. QB Max Duggan has been inconsistent at best, passing for over 200 yards only once, that coming in comeback mode against Iowa State. There's no question, the Horned Frogs will face a tough challenge in the form of Kansas State's defense on Saturday. After dropping back-to-back conference tilts against Oklahoma State and Baylor, in blowout fashion no less, this is obviously a huge game for the Wildcats. Like TCU, Kansas State's offense has been less than impressive. At home against Baylor, Kansas State didn't find the end zone until there were less than seven minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. The good news is, in that same contest, the 'Cats held Baylor out of the end zone until the final seven minutes of the first half. This was a defensive struggle last year with TCU prevailing 14-13. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-19 | Toledo v. Ball State OVER 57 | Top | 14-52 | Win | 100 | 41 h 5 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Toledo and Ball State at 2 pm et on Saturday. This matchup was no contest a year ago as Toledo rolled to a 45-13 win. As the line would indicate, this should be a far more competitive affair, and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring game. Ball State has reeled off back-to-back wins after starting its campaign with a 1-3 record. The Cardinals have already been involved in some shootouts. They can beat you through the air and on the ground with little talked about RB Caleb Huntley absolutely going off over the last two games, rushing for 309 yards on 64 carries. The touchdowns haven't come just yet (he has just five through six games this season) but it's only a matter of time. QB Drew Plitt has been bombing away, attempting at least 32 passes in five of six games to date. He has already tossed 13 touchdowns. The Cardinals will need all of that offense and then some against a Toledo squad that will be in a sour mood after scoring just seven points in a loss at Bowling Green last week. Keep in mind, the Rockets entered that game sporting a 4-1 record, having scored 145 points over the course of a four-game winning streak. Rockets RB Bryant Koback has already ran for at least 177 yards on two different occasions this season and should have a field day against the Ball State defense on Saturday. Toledo admittedly has questions at QB after Mitchell Guadagni suffered an injury last week but it's not as if he's been setting the MAC on fire. Take the over (10*). |
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10-18-19 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse UNDER 52.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Syracuse at 7 pm et on Friday. Most are expecting a shootout in this Friday night ACC tilt but I'm looking for a different story to unfold at the Carrier Dome. Pittsburgh is coming off a wild, high-scoring 33-30 win at Duke last time out. Keep in mind, the Panthers built a huge 26-3 lead in that contest and actually didn't give up a touchdown until the final three minutes of the third quarter. They sagged late and let the Blue Devils stage a furious rally, even giving up the lead in the fourth quarter before securing the win with a late touchdown. That should only amp up their concentration on the defensive side of the football in this one, and I see this as a manageable matchup against an inconsistent Syracuse offense. Note that earlier this season, Pitt didn't give up a touchdown against a powerful UCF offense until the final five minutes of the first half. Syracuse is coming off a tough 16-10 loss at N.C. State last week. The Orange are off to a frustrating 3-3 start. QB Tommy DeVito has looked terrific at times but has been far too inconsistent. 11 of his 12 touchdown passes have come in three games and he has also thrown five interceptions. Syracuse's ground attack has been equally inconsistent. Take the under (10*). |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 48.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas City and Denver at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met on this field last October we saw the total settle out around 54 points. That game failed to eclipse that number but here I look for a different story to unfold, at a more favorable number for ‘over’ bettors. The Chiefs defense is a mess. They’re allowing well north of five yards per rush this season, which sets up especially well for the Broncos two-headed backfield attack featuring Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. The Broncos won’t shy away from pounding the football in an effort to chew up the clock and effectively shorten this game, but I’m confident they’ll break off enough big runs to finish drives with touchdowns on the board. Given the Chiefs highly disappointing and virtually non-existent pass rush, oft-criticized Denver QB Joe Flacco should be able to find some success through the air in this one as well. Kansas City obviously possesses an elite offense, even if it isn’t going to match the numbers it put up during an incredible 2018 campaign. This is an admittedly tough matchup against a quality Broncos defense but off back-to-back losses, you can be sure the Chiefs offense will come out swinging and WR Tyreek Hill certainly looked no worse for wear in his first game back from injury last Sunday. Bettors are very hesitant to play the ‘over’ in this one due to the Broncos knack for getting involved in low-scoring games but that only serves to give us value with the total being set lower than it should be in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-13-19 | Steelers v. Chargers UNDER 41.5 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Pittsburgh is in dire straits on offense right now with both Ben Roethlisberger and Mason Rudolph sidelined. Don't discount the loss of change-of-pace RB Jaylen Samuels either. Simply put, the Steelers offense has been a plodding unit at the best of times this season and now heads to the west coast with that is sure to be a conservative, run-based offensive gameplan. Los Angeles hasn't been great against the run but can focus its defensive focus on slowing RB James Conner and a one-dimensional offense here. The Chargers are somewhat committed to working RB Melvin Gordon back into the fold but there's no question, he didn't look great in last week's season debut. With key injuries on their offensive line the Chargers are limited in what they can do offensively right now. This isn't an ideal matchup against an underrated Steelers defense that can generate consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks and while RB Austin Ekeler and WR Keenan Allen can inflict some damage, I still believe this total will prove to be too high. Take the over (10*). |
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10-13-19 | Falcons v. Cardinals OVER 51.5 | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This game has true shootout potential as the Falcons travel to Glendale to take on the Cardinals. Atlanta was involved in a shootout last week in Houston, ultimately falling well short in a blowout loss. The Falcons offense continues to roll along with Matt Ryan airing it out more than any other quarterback in the NFL. Nothing changes this week as Ryan faces a less-than-imposing Cardinals pass defense that continues to play without corners Peterson and Alford. Not only that but Arizona isn't generating any pressure on opposing quarterbacks which means Ryan should have plenty of time to find his terrific wide receiving corps for big gains. On the flip side, this is a potential blow-up spot for Cards rookie QB Kyler Murray. Like the Cards, the Falcons aren't putting any pressure on opposing quarterbacks and Murray should have little trouble beating them both through the air and on the ground. There are questions whether RB David Johnson will be able to play through a bad back but even if he can't go, backup RB Chase Edmonds showed last week he's more than up for the challenge. Take the over (10*). |
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10-13-19 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams were involved in tightly-contested affairs last Sunday and while both games went 'over' the total, neither contest was a shootout. Here, I believe the potential is there for a shootout as the Bengals try to stay competitive, and should have a good shot at doing so against an injury-plagued, and struggling Ravens defense. On the flip side, this is a tremendous opportunity for the Baltimore offense to run wild against an awful Bengals defense. Teams have absolutely steamrolled Cincinnati on the ground this season and few teams are set up better to do exactly that than the Ravens. QB Lamar Jackson is coming off a good but not great performance in an overtime win over the rival Steelers last Sunday. Look for him to find the going a lot easier in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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10-12-19 | Army v. Western Kentucky UNDER 43.5 | 8-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Army and Western Kentucky at 7 pm et on Saturday. We’re dealing with a relatively low posted total in this one but the number is warranted in my opinion. Army is coming off back-to-back uncharacteristic high-scoring games, splitting those contests against Morgan State and Tulane. This one sets up as a slugfest, however, noting that Western Kentucky has seen three of its five games this season total 34 points or less. The Hilltoppers have managed to score more than 21 points only once, and that came back in Week 1 against FCS squad Central Arkansas. While last week’s game got away from them, the Black Knights have proven they can play hard-nosed defensive football, allowing a grand total of just 65 points through their first four contests this season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-12-19 | Connecticut v. Tulane UNDER 58.5 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Connecticut and Tulane at 3:45 pm et on Saturday. Connecticut was in a terrific spot to earn its second win of the season last week as it hosted an injury-plagued South Florida squad at home. Not only did the Huskies fail to win that game, they got blown out by a 48-22 score. Their lone victory this season came against FCS squad Wagner at home back in Week 1. Things won’t get any easier as they travel to face upstart Tulane here, noting that UConn has topped out at 24 points – that performance coming against aforementioned Wagner. Tulane was involved in a surprising shootout against Army at West Point last Saturday, prevailing by a 42-33 score. That was actually the Green Wave’s second consecutive shootout win after defeating Houston 38-31 two weeks previous. I don’t think Tulane will be interested in getting involved in another high-scoring affair here. Remember, earlier this season we saw the Green Wave give up just 44 points over a three-game stretch that included a road date with Auburn (they gave up 24 points in that loss). This is a ‘win and move on’ type of situation for the Green Wave and that sets up well for us with an ‘under’ ticket in hand. Take the under (10*). |
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10-11-19 | Virginia v. Miami-FL UNDER 43.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Miami at 8 pm et on Friday. The Hurricanes are coming off a high-scoring affair last week against Virginia Tech while Virginia is coming off a much-needed bye week following an ugly performance on the road against Notre Dame. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair here. The Canes ultimately put up 35 points and now starting QB N'Kosi Perry threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns last week against the Hokies but that had everything to do with the fact they were playing out of a 28-0 hole in the second quarter. Miami isn't built to win shootouts and won't be interested in another track meet here. The same goes for Virginia. The Cavaliers are off to a 4-1 start this season but have played a rather uneven brand of football on both offense and defense. With no semblance of a ground game, I'm not sure they're going to be able to generate a lot of offense against a good Miami defense in bounce-back mode here. Defensively, I do think the Cavaliers can limit the Canes offense that isn't as good as it showed on the scoresheet last week. Take the under (10*). |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots OVER 40.5 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. With word coming out that the Giants will be missing Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard (among others) we've seen a considerable drop in this total (not to mention an ugly weather forecast). I feel it's gone too low. Simply put, I don't expect the Giants to possess the football long enough to churn out long, clock-eating drives in this game. Maybe we'll see the Patriots take their foot off the gas at some point, but even if they do, they'll likely have already contributed enough points to help this one 'over' the number. We're not asking much out of the Giants offense here and I don't believe they'll get completely shut out. Take the over (9*). |
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10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers UNDER 48 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I absolutely love the way this play sets up on Monday night in Santa Clara. The Browns are coming off an offensive explosion on the road against the division rival Ravens last week but don't count on a repeat performance here. Cleveland came up with the perfect gameplan for that matchup, focusing on quick passes and run plays to beat up on an undermanned and struggling Ravens defense. Now the Browns stay on the road and travel across the country for a matchup with the upstart (and undefeated) 49ers, who have gotten some tremendous defensive play in the early going this season. While the Browns defense is in for some regression here, I do think their defense can hold up well against everyone not named George Kittle on Monday night. Kittle will get his, but look for the Browns 'D' to do a nice job of containing the Niners offense as a whole. Cleveland is getting a little healthier on the defensive side of the football and it matches up well with the middle-of-the-road San Francisco offense. This total has everything to do with the Browns high-scoring result last week and the early season thinking that the Niners would be involved in plenty of shootouts this season. Neither angle is really in touch with reality at this point. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars v. Panthers OVER 40 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Panthers win in Houston last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The door is open for another big game from Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette with the Panthers now missing DT Kawann Short. Note that even with Short in action, Carolina hasn't fared well against opposing run games, allowing just shy of 4.8 yards per rush. The Panthers are in a strong bounce-back spot offensively after getting held down by the Texans last Sunday. With Jaguars stud CB Jalen Ramsey ruled out once again, look for Panthers QB Kyle Allen to take full advantage. Even the bumbling Broncos offense was able to get rolling against this defense last week in Denver, and this certainly isn't an ideal spot for the Jags playing on the road for a second straight week. Nothing really needs to be said about the Panthers ground game as RB Christian McCaffrey can move the chains regardless the situation. Take the over (10*). |
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10-06-19 | Falcons v. Texans OVER 50 | 32-53 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has true shootout potential, even after both of these offenses struggled mightily in last week's contests. With the Texans allowing north of 4.5 yards per carry on the ground, things should open up for Falcons QB Matt Ryan through the air in this one. Houston has one of the weakest secondaries in the entire NFL but held up fine last week thanks to Panthers QB Kyle Allen not testing it with deep passes. We should see a much different story unfold here with Ryan and WR Julio Jones in line for a big game. Atlanta's defense ranks second-to-last in the league in sacks this season and could be in for a long afternoon if it can't generate any pressure on Texans QB Deshaun Watson. WR DeAndre Hopkins has faced a murderer's row of cornerbacks in recent weeks but catches a break here against the Falcons struggling secondary. I've been calling for breakout games from WR Will Fuller for weeks now but it has yet to happen. This could certainly be the spot. Take the over (10*). |
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10-05-19 | Western Michigan v. Toledo OVER 72 | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Western Michigan and Toledo at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This one is being pegged as a shootout and I expect it to play out as exactly that on Saturday afternoon at the Glass Bowl. Last year this matchup produced 75 points in a game that wasn't competitive as Toledo rolled to a 51-24 victory. I do feel the Broncos are much better-suited to surviving a shootout this time around, keeping in mind we cashed a ticket on the 'over' in Western Michigan's wild 52-33 loss at Syracuse just two weeks ago. Things predictably settled down in the Broncos 31-15 win over Western Michigan last week but I'm confident the offense will ramp back up again here. Toledo is coming off a hard-fought 28-21 home win over BYU last week - the Rockets really couldn't have performed any better defensively in that one. Just two weeks ago they allowed 35 points in a narrow win at Colorado State. This is a team that can light it up through the air and on the ground and one that should have little trouble ripping through a weak Western Michigan defense. The concern for the Rockets has to be that they'll be in for a letdown here, particularly on the defensive side of the football, and the Broncos will certainly be ready to take advantage of that. This is a high total, but it's high for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
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10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 49.5 | 29-30 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Rams are coming off a ridiculously high-scoring game in a stunning home loss to the Bucs last Sunday afternoon but I'm not about to write off this defense. Facing a familiar division opponent should be just what the doctor ordered in this 'get right' matchup for the defense. This is by no means an easy challenge as the Seahawks offense has been rolling along but I do think the Rams will be up for it. On the flip side, the Seattle defense is coming off a stellar performance in Arizona last Sunday and will no question feed off the energy of the home crowd here, especially considering the last time they played on this field things did not go well against the Saints. We saw two high-scoring games between these two teams last season but that hasn't been the norm in this series. I'm not sure either squad is interested in a shootout traveling on a short week with a lot on the line in-division. Take the under (10*). |
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10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -112 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Southern and South Alabama at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're looking at a low total here largely due to the fact that these two teams have just two wins between them and both have been wildly inconsistent, and downright awful at times, on the offensive side of the football. I do have confidence in the quarterback play on both sides, however, and think this total should be set in the 50's - noting that last year's meeting produced north of 60 points in a Georgia Southern blowout. I do anticipate a more competitive affair here. South Alabama has the pieces in place on offense for a breakout with QB Cephus Johnson making strides and showing his ability to move the football on the ground and RB Tra Minter one of the most overlooked and underrated running backs in the country who is also capable of contributing big plays in the return game. Georgia Southern should have little trouble moving the football with QB Shai Werts leading the charge. The Jaguars possess one of the weaker defenses in the nation and didn't have a hope of slowing the Eagles offense last season. I don't see much changing here for the Jags on the defensive side of the football. Take the over (10*). |
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09-29-19 | Bucs v. Rams UNDER 50 | 55-40 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This total checks in much higher than I expected, largely due to the shootout with the Giants the Bucs were involved in last Sunday afternoon. Here, I look for Tampa Bay to have a tough time getting anything going offensively against an elite Rams defense. Head coach Bruce Arians would be wise to dial back QB Jameis Winston here in an effort to at least sustain some drives and avoid costly turnovers. While Los Angeles has the potential to explode offensively in this one, it doesn’t have a track record of embarrassing the opposition. Tampa Bay has actually done a nice job of holding enemy running backs in check this season and the Rams aren’t likely to completely abandon their ground game in this one, opening the door for some long, clock-churning drives. Take the under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy Football Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers OVER 56.5 | 16-30 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
10-04-20 | Colts v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 19-11 | Win | 100 | 76 h 23 m | Show | |
10-04-20 | Chargers v. Bucs UNDER 43.5 | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 55 m | Show | |
10-04-20 | Vikings v. Texans OVER 54.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 52 m | Show | |
10-04-20 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 49 | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 43 m | Show |
09-27-20 | Washington Football Team v. Browns UNDER 45 | 20-34 | Loss | -107 | 70 h 3 m | Show | |
09-27-20 | Titans v. Vikings OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Stephen F Austin v. SMU OVER 60.5 | 7-50 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. UTSA UNDER 60 | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 54 m | Show |
09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 48 | 31-13 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49 | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
09-20-20 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 48 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 16 m | Show | |
09-20-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cardinals OVER 46.5 | 15-30 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 16 m | Show | |
09-20-20 | Broncos v. Steelers UNDER 40.5 | 21-26 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 33 m | Show | |
09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 53.5 | Top | 39-40 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
09-19-20 | Tulsa v. Oklahoma State OVER 66 | 7-16 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51 | 17-20 | Loss | -116 | 83 h 21 m | Show | |
09-13-20 | Cardinals v. 49ers OVER 48 | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 41 m | Show | |
09-13-20 | Jets v. Bills UNDER 39.5 | 17-27 | Loss | -104 | 77 h 47 m | Show | |
09-13-20 | Raiders v. Panthers OVER 47.5 | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 77 h 39 m | Show | |
09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team OVER 42 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 1 m | Show |
09-12-20 | Syracuse v. North Carolina UNDER 65.5 | Top | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | 20-34 | Loss | -104 | 56 h 46 m | Show | |
09-10-20 | UAB v. Miami-FL OVER 54 | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy UNDER 49.5 | 55-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
09-05-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis UNDER 74 | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 94 h 48 m | Show | |
09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army OVER 55 | 0-42 | Loss | -108 | 88 h 35 m | Show | |
09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss UNDER 53.5 | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 54 h 19 m | Show | |
02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs OVER 54 | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 15 m | Show | |
01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs OVER 52.5 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 53 h 40 m | Show |
01-11-20 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 44 | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -106 | 54 h 59 m | Show |
01-06-20 | Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
01-05-20 | Vikings v. Saints OVER 49.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots UNDER 44.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans UNDER 44 | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati UNDER 55.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
01-01-20 | Minnesota v. Auburn OVER 53 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
12-31-19 | Texas v. Utah OVER 54 | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
12-30-19 | Illinois v. California UNDER 44 | 20-35 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
12-24-19 | BYU v. Hawaii UNDER 64.5 | Top | 34-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
12-23-19 | Marshall v. Central Florida OVER 59.5 | 25-48 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
12-22-19 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 50.5 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
12-22-19 | Saints v. Titans OVER 50 | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
12-21-19 | UAB v. Appalachian State UNDER 48 | Top | 17-31 | Push | 0 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
12-21-19 | Florida International v. Arkansas State UNDER 60.5 | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
12-21-19 | Texans v. Bucs OVER 50 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
12-20-19 | Kent State v. Utah State OVER 67.5 | 51-41 | Win | 100 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
12-15-19 | Texans v. Titans OVER 51 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
12-14-19 | Army v. Navy UNDER 40.5 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
12-12-19 | Jets v. Ravens OVER 44.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles OVER 44.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
12-06-19 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 46 | 37-15 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 39 m | Show | |
11-26-19 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 51.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show | |
11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams UNDER 47.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Jaguars v. Titans OVER 41.5 | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
11-24-19 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 47 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
11-23-19 | Troy v. UL-Lafayette OVER 71 | 3-53 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
11-20-19 | Toledo v. Buffalo UNDER 54.5 | 30-49 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
11-19-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 54.5 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 49.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
11-15-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Marshall UNDER 55 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
11-14-19 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh OVER 50 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
11-13-19 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo UNDER 53 | 31-28 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
11-12-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron OVER 46 | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
11-09-19 | UTSA v. Old Dominion UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
11-02-19 | TCU v. Oklahoma State UNDER 59 | 27-34 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
11-02-19 | Northern Illinois v. Central Michigan UNDER 51 | 10-48 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
11-01-19 | Navy v. Connecticut UNDER 55 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers OVER 43 | 14-27 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
10-27-19 | Panthers v. 49ers UNDER 41.5 | 13-51 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
10-26-19 | Notre Dame v. Michigan UNDER 51.5 | 14-45 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 1 m | Show | |
10-26-19 | Texas v. TCU UNDER 57 | 27-37 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
10-26-19 | Akron v. Northern Illinois UNDER 43.5 | 0-49 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 45 m | Show | |
10-26-19 | Tulane v. Navy UNDER 58 | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 43.5 | Top | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears UNDER 37 | 36-25 | Loss | -101 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
10-20-19 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 43.5 | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants OVER 50.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
10-20-19 | Rams v. Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
10-19-19 | Tulane v. Memphis UNDER 59.5 | 17-47 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 33 m | Show | |
10-19-19 | TCU v. Kansas State UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 41 h 26 m | Show |
10-19-19 | Toledo v. Ball State OVER 57 | Top | 14-52 | Win | 100 | 41 h 5 m | Show |
10-18-19 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse UNDER 52.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 48.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
10-13-19 | Steelers v. Chargers UNDER 41.5 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
10-13-19 | Falcons v. Cardinals OVER 51.5 | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show | |
10-13-19 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
10-12-19 | Army v. Western Kentucky UNDER 43.5 | 8-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 11 m | Show | |
10-12-19 | Connecticut v. Tulane UNDER 58.5 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
10-11-19 | Virginia v. Miami-FL UNDER 43.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots OVER 40.5 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers UNDER 48 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
10-06-19 | Jaguars v. Panthers OVER 40 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
10-06-19 | Falcons v. Texans OVER 50 | 32-53 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
10-05-19 | Western Michigan v. Toledo OVER 72 | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 49.5 | 29-30 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 38 m | Show | |
10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -112 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
09-29-19 | Bucs v. Rams UNDER 50 | 55-40 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 38 m | Show |