Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Purdue and Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday. I'm not going to stand in the way of either team's 'under' streaks in this matchup. Purdue has seen the 'under' cash in three straight games while Connecticut rides a six-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Neither team plays all that fast. In fact, the Huskies sit 328th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Purdue checks in 211th. While both teams are ultra-efficient offensively, I generally feel this large stadium venues tend to put a ceiling on shooting abilities. The Huskies actually shot well in their matchup with Alabama on Saturday but Purdue is a considerably tougher defensive opponent. The Boilermakers are going to be up against it here trying to find open looks with UConn ranking fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). I think the Huskies can defend without fouling, something Purdue's previous opponents haven't been able to do effectively. Note that the 'under' is 16-15 in Purdue's last 31 netural court games and 18-12 in UConn's last 30 netural court affairs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-06-24 | NC State v. Purdue -9 | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Purdue minus the points over N.C. State at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. Purdue was involved in a nail-biter against Tennessee in the Elite Eight. I don't expect Saturday's Final Four clash with N.C. State to be as close. All credit to the Wolfpack for getting here, they've been on an incredible run going back to to the ACC Tournament. I don't like the spot here, however. Note that N.C. State checks in off a 12-point victory over Duke in the Elite Eight. The Wolfpack are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit win over a conference opponent including 1-2 ATS in that situation this season. N.C. State is also 4-11 ATS in its last 15 contests after covering the spread in consecutive games, as is the case here, including a 3-5 ATS mark in that spot this season. Purdue is a long-term 29-18 ATS in its last 47 NCAA Tournament games including a perfect 4-0 ATS record this year. It almost seems as if opponents have been overlooking N.C. State for weeks now. With the nearly week-long build-up to this contest, I don't expect Purdue to suffer the same fate. Take Purdue (8*). |
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03-31-24 | Tennessee v. Purdue -3.5 | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Tennessee at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. I'm of the belief that there is a substantial gap between the best team remaining in the NCAA Tournament, that being Connecticut, and the rest of the field. With that said, I also feel there's a significant gap between the top two teams remaining, and I include Purdue in that group, and the rest of the field. Purdue is playing its best basketball of the season right now and I don't think Tennessee will have enough in its arsenal to keep pace on Sunday afternoon. The Boilermakers rank third in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. The Volunteers check in 28th in that same category. Of course, even if the Boilers aren't shooting the lights out, they're consistently getting to the free throw line. Tennessee got just enough offensive production to outlast a hot-and-cold shooting Creighton squad last time out. I simply feel Purdue is a different animal and will ultimately will its way to victory on Sunday. Take Purdue (8*). |
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03-30-24 | Clemson +3 v. Alabama | Top | 82-89 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Clemson plus the points over Alabama at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Clemson will try to accomplish what another ACC squad was unable to do two nights ago and that's topple Alabama on its way to a Final Four appearance on Saturday night. The ACC has exceeded expectations in this tournament, even if the Tar Heels did fall short against the Crimson Tide on Thursday. Clemson enters riding a red hot 21-11 ATS tear in an underdog role including a 9-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Note that Alabama falls into a rather poor situation here as it has gone 17-28 ATS in its last 45 contests after scoring 85 points or more in its previous game, as is the case here, including an 11-11 ATS record in that situation this season. Clemson has climbed all the way inside KenPom's top-20 rankings nationally, closing the gap on 14th-ranked Alabama as this tournament has gone on. Clearly the Tigers were underrated entering this tournament but they come off their best offensive showing (29-of-59 shooting against Arizona) and have held four straight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals (Alabama has held just one of its last six foes to fewer than 29). Take Clemson (10*). |
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03-29-24 | NC State v. Marquette -6.5 | 67-58 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Marquette minus the points over N.C. State at 7:05 pm et on Friday. N.C. State is on an incredible run right now but has certainly had some good fortune along the way. The Wolfpack are the lowest ranked team remaining in the country according to KenPom's metrics and it's not particularly close (they rank 53rd - the next closest team is Clemson at 23rd). Marquette has quietly delivered the cash in 16 of its last 24 games. Also of note, the Golden Eagles have seen the straight-up winner go 23-2 ATS in their last 25 contests. I like their chances of keeping that run going on Friday. N.C. State is a long-term 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following seven straight wins, as is the case here. The pace of this game projects to be played right in Marquette's wheelhouse as it has gone 27-9 ATS in its last 36 games with the total set in the 150's including a 13-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Marquette (8*). |
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03-28-24 | San Diego State v. Connecticut -10.5 | Top | 52-82 | Win | 100 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over San Diego State at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. This is of course a rematch of last year's championship game that Connecticut won in a rout, 76-59. I don't expect this game to be any closer - in fact, I think the Huskies hold an even greater advantage in this year's matchup. San Diego State checks in off wins over UAB and Yale with the latter victory coming in blowout fashion. Keep in mind, the Aztecs haven't covered the spread in consecutive games since February 13th and 16th. Connecticut on the other hand is on an ATS tear, grabbing the cash in three straight and 11 of its last 13 games. The Huskies rank inside the country's top-10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Note that San Diego State is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Aztecs are also just 26-29 ATS in their last 55 contests following consecutive wins including a 4-10 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, UConn is 61-39 ATS in its last 100 games as a favorite including 24-11 ATS this season. The Huskies are quite simply built for postseason basketball, riding a long-term 36-23 ATS run in NCAA Tournament action including an 8-1 ATS mark in their last nine contests in the Big Dance. Take Connecticut (10*). |
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03-24-24 | Grand Canyon +6 v. Alabama | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Grand Canyon plus the points over Alabama at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. I think most are still sleeping on Grand Canyon, even after its upset win over St. Mary's in the opening round of this tournament. The Antelopes aren't some upstart - they actually check in 50th in the country according to KenPom's overall rankings. They do everything reasonably well and play at a fast enough pace to not get overwhelmed by Alabama in this particular matchup. The Crimson Tide prevailed by double-digits against Charleston in the opening round. They continue to thrive offensively but can be had defensively, ranking just 117th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Note that Grand Canyon is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 games as an underdog including a 3-0 ATS mark in that situation this season. Alabama did cover the spread in its tournament opener but remains just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 NCAA Tournament contests including a 2-3 ATS record over the last three seasons. Take Grand Canyon (10*). |
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03-24-24 | James Madison v. Duke UNDER 148.5 | 55-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between James Madison and Duke at 5:15 pm et on Sunday. I think we saw a pretty good blueprint of what these two teams want to do in this tournament in the opening round on Saturday, even if both did end up shooting poorly. James Madison will be an underdog throughout the Big Dance and I think there's a path to success if it can effectively shorten proceedings and limit scoring opportunities for the opposition. Duke doesn't play at all that fast of a pace, ranking 236th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Note that the Blue Devils have held five of their last seven opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. Only one of James Madison's last six foes has managed to get off 60 or more field goal attempts. The 'under' is 21-15 in James Madison's last 36 games following a double-digit win including a 13-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 30-24 in Duke's last 54 contests following an ATS victory including a 10-8 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-23-24 | Oregon v. Creighton UNDER 146 | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Creighton at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. Oregon's opening round victory over South Carolina didn't have much business getting 'over' the total or certainly not reaching 160 total points. The Ducks actually got off just 47 field goal attempts in that contest while holding South Carolina to 25-of-56 shooting. Oregon quite simply shot the lights out but I think it will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance against Creighton on Saturday. While the Blue Jays are known for their offensive prowess they can play some defense as well. Note that they check in ranked 26th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Both teams rank around the 200 mark in terms of adjusted tempo so neither team plays exceptionally fast. Note that the 'under' is 24-21 in Oregon's last 45 games following an ATS win including an 8-7 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-12 in Creighton's last 27 contests following a win by 15 points or more including a 7-6 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-23-24 | Washington State v. Iowa State -6 | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Washington State at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. Washington State pulled off a minor upset win over Drake in the opening round but I look for the Cougars run to end against Iowa State on Saturday. Note that Washington State has only faced the 84th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. Iowa State on the other hand has gone up against the 45th toughest slate of opponents and checks in ranked as the sixth ranked team in the country according to KenPom's overall rankings. The Cougars are just 21-28 ATS in their last 49 contests following an ATS win including an 8-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Cyclones are quite simply one of the best bets in the country this season having gone 24-10 ATS to date and are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 contests after scoring 80 points or more in their previous game including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Iowa State (8*). |
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03-23-24 | Gonzaga v. Kansas UNDER 151.5 | 89-68 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and Kansas at 3:15 pm et on Saturday. I understand the logic behind the high total in this matchup. After all, both teams exploded offensively in the opening round with Gonzaga scoring 86 points in a rout of McNeese State and Kansas putting up 93 points in a narrow escape against Samford. I don't think we'll see that same type of contest on Saturday, however. Kansas ranks 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom but 61st in adjusted offensive efficiency. It's the reverse for Gonzaga as it ranks eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency but 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. All that to say that the 'under' is 24-23 in the Bulldogs last 47 games following an 'over' result including an 8-5 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 27-25 in Gonzaga's last 52 contests following a win by 15 points or more including a 7-5 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 61-35 in Kansas' last 96 games as an underdog including an 8-5 record in that situation over the last three seasons. When playing with one day or less of rest, the Jayhawks have seen the 'under' go 16-8 over the last three seasons including a perfect 4-0 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-22-24 | Grand Canyon +5.5 v. St. Mary's | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Grand Canyon plus the points over St. Mary's at 10:05 pm et on Friday. As is often the case, I wonder whether St. Mary's used up everything it had in the tank in climbing the WCC mountain to defeat Gonzaga in the tournament championship game last weekend. Grand Canyon got a taste of NCAA Tournament action last year, falling by 12 points in the first round against aforementioned Gonzaga. It enters this tournament ranked 53rd in the country this season according to KenPom. Note that St. Mary's is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 NCAA Tournament games and 11-14 ATS in its last 25 contests following consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Grand Canyon is 11-7 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog including a 2-0 ATS mark this season. Take Grand Canyon (8*). |
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03-22-24 | Yale +13 v. Auburn | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale plus the points over Auburn at 4:15 pm et on Friday. Auburn is a trendy pick to win it all but I expect it to get a scare against Ivy League opponent Yale on Friday afternoon. The Tigers are less than week removed from winning the SEC Tournament in blowout fashion against Florida. Meanwhile, Yale was nearly upset in the Ivy League Final against Brown, prevailing by a single point but never sniffing out an ATS cover. The Bulldogs are no pushovers. They've faced the 128th most difficult schedule in the country this season - not bad by Ivy League standards - and have hung tough sitting inside the top-100 both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. What I really like about Yale in this particular matchup is their ability to be efficient on offense while also limiting their opponents' possessions. The Bulldogs rank 329th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. They've been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, connecting on 25 or more field goals in 25 of 31 games. Note that Yale is a long-term 137-120 ATS as an underdog including a 13-11 ATS mark over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Auburn is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when seeded number four or higher in the NCAA Tournament, as is the case here. Take Yale (8*). |
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03-22-24 | UAB +7 v. San Diego State | Top | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on UAB plus the points over San Diego State at 1:45 pm et on Friday. I don't think UAB is getting enough respect after beating three quality opponents in three days on its way to an AAC Tournament title last week. The Blazers have quietly put together a 20-12 ATS record in lined games this season. While few were paying attention back in November, they opened the campaign with an extremely tough three-game slate, at home against Bradley followed by neutral site contests against Clemson and Maryland. UAB went 2-1 ATS in those three contests with the lone defeat coming by two points against Bradley. Going back to January 14th the Blazers have rattled off an incredible 15 ATS victories in 19 games. San Diego State certainly took the Mountain West Conference Tournament seriously, reaching the final against New Mexico (it lost that game 68-61). I see this as a tough opening round draw for the Aztecs as the Blazers figure to push the pace and make them uncomfortable. UAB is efficient enough to back it up, ranking inside the country's top-60 in adjusted offensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). A big reason why San Diego State has only managed to go 13-19 ATS this season is that it is good enough to be favored in most contests but doesn't generate enough scoring opportunities to cover those spreads. The Aztecs rank 266th in the country in adjusted tempo. UAB has connected on 30 or more field goals in five of its last eight games while San Diego State has reached that number just once since the end of January and six times all season. The Blazers have been a solid positive momentum play in recent years going 28-26 ATS in their last 54 games following an ATS win including a 13-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, San Diego State is just 22-27 ATS in its last 49 contests following an ATS loss including a 7-11 ATS record in that spot this season. Take UAB (10*). |
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03-21-24 | Drake v. Washington State OVER 138 | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Drake and Washington State at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Washington State enters this tournament off three straight 'under' results but that streak can be easily explained. The Cougars first faced Washington with an inflated total set in the mid-140's off consecutive 'over' results. That game actually surpassed the total we're working with tonight, reaching 142 points. Next they exploded for just shy of 80 points but Stanford wasn't a capable dance partner producing only 62 points in a blowout result (that also still eclipsed the total we're working with here). Finally, Washington State was ousted from the Pac-12 Tournament in a defensive struggle against Colorado (we saw what the Buffaloes are capable of defensively in their win over Boise State in First Four action last night). Drake wants to push the pace and is efficient offensively ranking well inside the country's top-50 in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. It doesn't have a defense to go along with it, however, as the Bulldogs enter this tourney ranked 72nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, having allowed nine of their last 11 opponents to knock down at least 26 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 22-11 in Drake's last 33 games with the total set in the 130's including a 4-2 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 17-14 in Washington State's last 31 contests after allowing 60 points or less in its previous game including a 7-2 record in that spot this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-21-24 | Colorado State +2.5 v. Texas | 44-56 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado State plus the points over Texas at 6:50 pm et on Thursday. Texas has had a real problem with stepping up in big games away from home this season and has been a bad bet overall, going 12-20 ATS. Noting that the Longhorns are 34-41 ATS in their last 75 games as a favorite including a 7-14 ATS mark in that situation this season, I can't help but feel the wrong team is laying points in this particular matchup. Colorado State has been a solid positive momentum play in recent years, going 33-29 ATS when coming off a victory over the last three seasons including a 14-9 ATS record in that spot this season. Remember, the Rams defeated a pair of teams currently ranked higher than Texas according to KenPom in Creighton and Colorado earlier in the campaign. Take Colorado State (8*). |
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03-21-24 | Nevada v. Dayton OVER 136.5 | 60-63 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Nevada and Dayton at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. This one won't be considered among the potential track meets in the opening round of the tournament but I expect it to get 'over' the reasonable total nonetheless. Nevada enters the tourney riding a six-game 'over' streak. Meanwhile, Dayton had its own six-game 'over' streak snapped in its upset loss against Duquesne in Atlantic-10 Tournament action last week. Neither team plays all that fast but both are ultra-efficient offensively and find ways to put points on the board. I think the matador-like defense of Dayton in particular is worth noting here as it has allowed five of its last seven opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Nevada's opponents have displayed a rock solid offensive floor, connecting on 23 or more field goals in five of their last six games and more than 20 in 14 of their last 17 contests. Take the over (8*). |
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03-21-24 | Oregon v. South Carolina UNDER 133.5 | 87-73 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and South Carolina at 4 pm et on Thursday. We'll once again target PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh for a potentially low-scoring affair between Oregon and South Carolina on Thursday afternoon. Keep in mind, the last time this venue hosted NCAA Tournament first and second round action was in 2022 and the six games played here resulted in an average total of just 124.2 points. Oregon sits just inside the country's top-200 in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Meanwhile, South Carolina ranks 354th (out of 362 Division I teams) in the same category. The Ducks certainly ramped up their defensive play down the stretch, holding each of their last four opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals on the way to a Pac-12 Tournament title. The Gamecocks didn't enjoy the same success as they met their demise at the hands of an ultra-athletic Auburn squad in the SEC Tournament. However, South Carolina does check in having held 12 of its last 14 opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. On the season, the Gamecocks rank just three spots outside the country's top-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The 'under' is 9-6 in Oregon's last 15 games following consecutive ATS wins including a 3-2 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 25-12 in South Carolina's last 37 non-conference affairs including a 7-6 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-21-24 | Akron v. Creighton UNDER 141.5 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Creighton at 1:30 pm et on Thursday. Creighton tends to carry a reputation as an up-tempo offensive team and bettors are generally quick to support the 'over' in games involving the Blue Jays, especially at this time of year. We've already seen this total get bet up a couple of points and I believe it will prove too high. Pittsburgh's PPG Paints Arena last hosted NCAA Tournament first and second round action in 2022. The six games played in this venue totalled an average of only 124.2 total points with just one of those contests surpassing the total we're working with in this particular contest on Thursday. Akron will certainly have its work cut out for it on Thursday but it does likely come in with a gameplan in mind and that's slowing this game to a crawl. Note that the Zips rank 268th in the country (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. They're also inside the top-100 in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. Considering Akron boasts the 162nd ranked offense (in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency) it doesn't figure to be interested in giving Creighton (and its 12th-ranked offense) any more possessions than it has to. Of note, the Blue Jays actually rank just outside the top-200 in adjusted tempo so it's not as if they're playing at a frenetic pace this season. Yes, they've been ultra-efficient but I do think playing at a larger venue like the one in Pittsburgh serves as an equalizer in a sense. The 'under' is 21-17 in Akron's last 38 games with the total set in the 140's including a 12-5 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 27-13 in the Zips last 40 contests played on a neutral court as an underdog including a perfect 3-0 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-18 in Creighton's last 47 postseason tournament games including 16-9 in its last 25 NCAA Tournament contests. Take the under (10*). |
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03-21-24 | Duquesne +10.5 v. BYU | 71-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Duquesne plus the points over BYU at 12:40 pm et on Thursday. I like the Dukes chances of hanging tough on Thursday as they look to build on the positive momentum gained from their incredible run to an Atlantic-10 Tournament title last week. BYU will only go as far as its three-point shooting takes it and this is a tough matchup in that regard. Duquesne holds the opposition to an average of just seven made threes per game including only six per contest away from home. The Dukes rank inside the top-30 in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. They play a chaotic brand of defense that produces turnovers. Turnovers lead to extra offensive possessions and against a BYU defense that ranks just 50th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, I look for the Dukes to get theirs. Take Duquesne (8*). |
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03-20-24 | VCU v. Villanova UNDER 131 | Top | 70-61 | Push | 0 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between VCU and Villanova at 9 pm et on Wednesday. This game is flashing 'under' as two teams that are obviously disappointed to not be playing in the Big Dance match up in NIT action on Wednesday night in Villanova. VCU lost in a slugfest in the Atlantic-10 Championship against Duquesne. The Rams rank outside the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency and 302nd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Where VCU shines of course is at the defensive end of the floor, sitting 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. This is a matchup it figures to handle against a Villanova offense that has disappointed, ranking 84th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 350th in adjusted tempo. Only 12 Division I teams have played at a slower pace this season. The Wildcats have been even better than the Rams defensively this season, ranking 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. While there's always the chance we see a late scoring flurry in a game in this pointspread range, I'm willing to take my chances with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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03-19-24 | Cal-Irvine +7.5 v. Utah | Top | 75-84 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Week. My selection is on Cal-Irvine plus the points over Utah at 11 pm et on Tuesday. Utah probably feels like it deserved a better fate but the wins and losses simply didn't add up for the Utes to reach the NCAA Tournament. Here they are in the NIT and while Cal-Irvine won't catch a lot of attention by name recognition only, the Anteaters have the pedigree and the personnel to give Utah all it can handle on Tuesday night. Cal-Irvine enters the NIT on an offensive tear. The Anteaters have knocked down 30, 30, 31, 31, 28 and 32 field goals over their last six contests. That's to go along with a defense that ranks 40th in the country (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric) - one spot above tonight's opponent, Utah. The Utes have quite simply been an unreliable bet since New Year's Eve, going 8-13 ATS over their last 21 games. While the Anteaters failed to deliver the cash in their most recent game against NCAA Tournament-bound Long Beach State, they've never lost more than two games in a row ATS this season and that happened only three times previously. In fact, the Anteaters are 23-16 ATS in their last 39 games following an ATS loss including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah, meanwhile, has gone 57-69 ATS in its last 126 tournament games (in-season or postseason) including a 4-8 ATS record over the last three seasons. I simply feel the Utes are laying too many points on Tuesday. Take Cal-Irvine (10*). |
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03-19-24 | Wagner v. Howard UNDER 128.5 | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wagner and Howard at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. This has the potential to be a slugfest between two little-known schools that have everything to play for in Dayton on Tuesday. Wagner ranks 361st (out of 362 Division I schools) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. It got even slower offensively down the stretch, getting off 57, 54 and 49 field goal attempts over its last three contests. Howard wants to play faster but I don't think it will be given much room to breathe in this particular matchup. Note that Wagner checks in having held four straight opponents to 21 or fewer made field goals. The Bison actually played slower down the stretch, getting off 52 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their final 10 games. Limiting scoring opportunities is half the battle and in that regard, Howard has performed well, allowing 54 or fewer field goal attempts in seven of its last 11 contests. Wagner has connected on more than 23 field goals just once in its last eight games. Take the under (8*). |
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03-17-24 | Duquesne +2 v. VCU | Top | 57-51 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
My selection is on Duquesne plus the points over VCU at 1 pm et on Sunday. We'll grab all the points we can get with Duquesne on Sunday as I think the Dukes might just be the better team in this matchup. It's not as if VCU is having all that memorable of a campaign. The Rams have gone 22-12 and their current three-game winning streak is their longest since a four-gamer from February 3rd to 16th. Duquesne checks in 23-11 on the season and riding a seven-game winning streak. The Dukes have turned incredibly stingy at the defensive end of the floor, rising all the way to 34th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). They've won consecutive matchups with VCU including a double-digit road win just 12 days ago. The Rams have the pedigree but the Dukes have the better team in my opinion. Take Duquesne (8*). |
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03-16-24 | NC State v. North Carolina -9 | Top | 84-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over N.C. State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. N.C. State has gone on an incredible run to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive this week in D.C. but I expect its run to end here. There's obviously no love lost between these in-state rivals. The last meeting between the Wolfpack and Tar Heels was decided by only nine points but North Carolina was the better team by perhaps an even wider margin as it absolutely dominated the second half. Here, the Tar Heels come off a scare against Pittsburgh yesterday as they once again needed a big second half to pull away for a seven-point win. I expect a sharper performance from North Carolina here and it catches N.C. State off a late rally that saw it force overtime before prevailing against Virginia last night. Now the Wolfpack will play their fifth game in as many days and while they're hungry to earn that NCAA Tourney berth, I expect talent to win out on this occasion. North Carolina hasn't lost a game since February 13th at Syracuse and while it will be playing its third game in three days, the first of those contests was a glorified scrimmage in a 92-67 rout of Florida State on Thursday. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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03-16-24 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -8 | 66-73 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Auburn minus the points over Mississippi State at 1 pm et on Saturday. I would expect Auburn to lay waste to Mississippi State on Saturday as the Tigers come off a glorified scrimmage against an overmatched South Carolina squad yesterday. The Bulldogs kept their Cinderella SEC Tournament run going with a rout of heavily-favored Tennessee. The Vols clearly got caught looking past Mississippi State but I don't anticipate fourth-ranked (according to KenPom's overall rankings) Auburn to suffer a similar fate on Saturday. The Tigers do everything well, ranked in the top-10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency while also checking in 57th in adjusted tempo (all according to KenPom). Mississippi State, while respectable in all departments, pales in comparison and sits 27th in KenPom's overall rankings. Auburn learned its lesson in its first regular season meeting with Mississippi State, suffering a six-point road defeat before exacting its revenge in a 15-point victory at home on March 2nd. Playing three games in as many days catches up with the Bulldogs here. Take Auburn (8*). |
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03-15-24 | NC State v. Virginia -3.5 | 73-65 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over N.C. State at 9:30 pm et on Friday. Off its big upset win over Duke yesterday, we'll fade N.C. State on Friday as it faces a much different opponent in Virginia. The Cavaliers went through a tough stretch this season but have come out of it ok and I think this is a favorable matchup for them stylistically on Friday night. The low posted total tells us all we need to know as Virginia should be able to dictate the tempo, checking in ranked as the slowest-paced team in the entire country according to KenPom's adjusted tempo metric. N.C. State emptied the tank in yesterday's upset victory over Duke. The Wolfpack are a middling bunch in my opinion and I expect them to fall short here. Take Virginia (8*). |
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03-15-24 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern UNDER 137.5 | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Northwestern at 2:30 pm et on Friday. Wisconsin exploded for 87 points in yesterday's rout of Maryland. I don't expect it to enjoy the same offensive success on Friday as it draws Northwestern in Big Ten Tournament quarter-final action. Note that the Badgers preferred pace is slow, ranking 307th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The same goes for the Wildcats, in fact Northwestern checks in 342nd (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo. While the Badgers offense has been ultra-efficient, this will be the Wildcats second time seeing them this season after holding them to just 44 field goal attempts in the first matchup back in January. Wisconsin shot the lights out in that game but the final score still reached 'only' 134 total points. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a contest totalled more than 134 points. The defense tends to ratchet up as this tournament goes. Case in point, last year's quarter-final round saw the four games total 135, 126, 132 (overtime game) and 130 points. Take the under (8*). |
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03-14-24 | TCU v. Houston -10 | 45-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over TCU at 3 pm et on Thursday. TCU delivered a convincing win over Oklahoma to reach the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. I expected the Horned Frogs run to end there, however, as they draw top-seeded Houston on Thursday. While TCU does own a respectable 21-11 record this season it didn't exactly face the most difficult non-conference slate and only proved to be a middling squad in conference play. Of note, the Horned Frogs did upset the Cougars in their lone regular season matchup back in January. That loss marked Houston's second in a row but it only dropped one more game the rest of the way. The Cougars enter this rematch in excellent form off a 76-46 rout of Kansas last Saturday. That was a revenge game as well after Houston dropped a 13-point decision in Lawrence one month prior. Expect a similar knockout blow from the Cougars here as they successfully avenge that earlier loss to the Horned Frogs. Take Houston (8*). |
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03-14-24 | Fresno State v. Utah State -11.5 | 75-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Fresno State at 3 pm et on Thursday. Utah State had to be happy about sitting idle on the opening day of the Mountain West Conference Tournament, giving it an extra day of rest following last Saturday's taxing two-point win over New Mexico that earned it top spot in the conference. The Aggies caught a bit of a break with Fresno State staging an upset win over Wyoming yesterday. That 'revenge' victory booked the Bulldogs this date with the conference's top-seed and I expect Fresno State's tournament run to be short-lived. Keep in mind, the Bulldogs don't do anything particularly well, ranking 225th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 235th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (both according to KenPom). Utah State figures to overwhelm with its 38th ranked offense. The Aggies aren't likely to overlook the Bulldogs, however, not after Fresno State gave them all they could handle in a 77-73 decision in their most recent meeting. Take Utah State (8*). |
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03-14-24 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -155 | 56-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin over Maryland at 2:30 pm et on Thursday. We won't mess with the points in a game that projects to be low-scoring on Thursday but I do expect Wisconsin to prevail. Maryland gutted out a low-scoring victory over Rutgers yesterday. The Terrapins have won just twice in their last seven contests with both of those coming against the Scarlet Knights. The Badgers didn't perform well offensively in their lone previous meeting with the Terps this season, connecting on just 21 field goals including 4-of-17 shooting from beyond the arc. Still, Wisconsin ranks 18th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. In stark contrast, Maryland checks in 151st in the same category. The Terps will have a tough time beating the Badgers at their own game here when you consider both teams play at a similarly slow pace (303rd and 310th in adjusted tempo, respectively). Take Wisconsin (8*). |
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03-14-24 | Xavier v. Connecticut UNDER 150 | 60-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Xavier and Connecticut at 12 noon et on Thursday. Xavier was able to play at its preferred pace in yesterday's win over Butler, hoisting up a whopping 67 field goal attempts in the 76-72 victory. The Musketeers aren't likely to enjoy the same offensive success against top-seed Connecticut on Thursday. The Huskies rank 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Also note that UConn checks in 332nd in adjusted tempo. The last time these two teams met the Huskies rolled to a 99-56 victory on January 28th. You can be sure Xavier hasn't forgotten that beatdown and will likely be a little more interested in grinding this rematch out and effectively shortening proceedings, keeping in mind UConn also ranks third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. While you wouldn't know it by yesterday's performance, the Musketeers rank inside the top-50 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Take the under (8*). |
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03-13-24 | Air Force v. New Mexico -14.5 | 56-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Mexico minus the points over Air Force at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Lobos stumbled down the stretch, losing three of their last four games and that means they're in play on the opening day of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Wednesday. I expect them to take their frustrations out on Air Force as they look to avenge a stunning 78-77 home loss against the Falcons on February 24th. Air Force knocked down 31-of-60 field goal attempts in that contest - a performance it is unlikely to repeat here. Note that the Falcons have connected on 24 or fewer field goals in seven of their last 10 games. In fact, they've gotten off 53 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their last seven contests. That's in stark contrast to the Lobos, who are one of the fastest, most efficient offensive teams in the country. New Mexico has made good on 28, 28, 30 and 34 field goals over its last four contests. The Lobos rank top-five in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom this season. Air Force is 6-10 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win but SU loss, as is the case here, including an 0-3 ATS mark this season. Meanwhile, New Mexico is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 contests after giving up 85 points or more in its previous game, including a 3-0 ATS record in that situation this season. Take New Mexico (8*). |
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03-13-24 | UCF +6 v. BYU | 73-87 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCF plus the points over BYU at 12:30 pm et on Wednesday. I like the fact that the Knights were able to get a game under their belts on this floor yesterday, breezing past Oklahoma State by a score of 77-62. UCF didn't shoot particularly well as a whole in that game but did connect on 9-of-18 three-point attempts. The Knights sport the 10th ranked defense in the country (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric) this season and that gives them a puncher's chance against this explosive BYU offense. Also note that UCF is comfortable playing at a fast pace, which is obviously the Cougars preferred tempo. While BYU did take both regular season meetings, both of those contests went right down to the wire. Note that UCF is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games as a neutral court underdog of six points or less including a 2-0 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, BYU is 19-23 ATS in its last 42 contests as a neutral court favorite of six points or less. The Cougars are also just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games following a home win over a conference foe, as is the case here, including a 2-4 ATS record in that spot this season. Take UCF (8*). |
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03-12-24 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's UNDER 139.5 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and St. Mary's at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry series going back to last year's WCC Tournament championship game. I expect more of the same on Tuesday. We know what St. Mary's approach to this game will be. The Gaels will look to slow the pace to a crawl, noting that they rank 358th (out of 362 Division I teams) in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. St. Mary's enters this contest having held 25 of its last 29 opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. Gonzaga enters on an offensive tear but it's not as if the Bulldogs are really pushing the pace. They've gotten off 61 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games including 58 against St. Mary's on March 2nd. Note that the 'under' is 7-5 with Gonzaga coming off an 'over' result this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-4 in St. Mary's last 14 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-24 | New Hampshire v. Vermont -13.5 | Top | 59-66 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
America East Game of the Year. My selection is on Vermont minus the points over New Hampshire at 5 pm et on Tuesday. Vermont escaped with a four-point win the last time these two teams squared off in New Hampshire just last week, failing to sniff out a cover as a nine-point favorite. I don't expect the Catamounts to face nearly as much resistance in this quick rematch in America East Tournament semi-final action on Tuesday. Note that New Hampshire is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit victory in-conference, as is the case here, including an 0-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Wildcats are also just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, Vermont is 24-19 ATS in its last 43 contests following consecutive ATS losses including a 12-7 ATS mark in that spot over the last three seasons. Better still, the Catamounts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when coming off consecutive straight-up wins but ATS defeats, which is the situation here. Take Vermont (10*). |
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03-11-24 | Santa Clara v. St. Mary's -9.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Mary's minus the points over Santa Clara at 9 pm et on Monday. St. Mary's nearly let Santa Clara off the hook the last time these two teams met in late January. In that game, the Gaels built a seemingly insurmountable 22-point halftime lead before escaping with an 82-77 home victory. Keep in mind, the first matchup this season was no contest as St. Mary's rolled to a 73-49 road win. The Broncos will have the Gaels full attention for this WCC Tournament semi-final matchup on Monday. The last time we saw St. Mary's it fell by a 70-57 score in its regular season finale against Gonzaga. It has had over a week to chew on that double-digit defeat and as a result I expect to see a bit of a sling-shot effect from the Gaels on Monday. While St. Mary's does play at an extremely slow pace (it ranks 358th out of 362 Division I teams in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom), it is also very efficient, ranking inside the nation's top-50 in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). For its part, Santa Clara ranks 114th in the same category. The Broncos play fast but I think it works against them in this semi-final showdown. Take St. Mary's (10*). |
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03-11-24 | Montana State v. Weber State -6 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Weber State minus the points over Montana State at 7:30 pm et on Monday. The door is wide open for the likes of Weber State and Montana after Sacramento State and Idaho State pulled off stunning upsets in Big Sky Tournament action over the weekend. I like Weber State in particular as it draws a quick revenge matchup against Montana State on Monday. Just one week ago, Montana State delivered a 76-64 win over Weber State as it quite simply shot the lights out on its home floor (29 made field goals including 13 from three-point range on just 55 field goal attempts). Keep in mind, earlier in the season the Wildcats rolled to an 86-64 win over the Bobcats. That victory over Weber State last week marked just a third win over its last nine contests for Montana State. Meanwhile, the Wildcats suffered just their second defeat in their last 10 games. KenPom has Weber State ranked a respectable 144th in the country while Montana State checks in 241st (out of 362 Division I teams). The Bobcats play at a reasonably fast pace but aren't generally all that efficient offensively - their last game notwithstanding - and I think that will play into this one getting away from them in short order. Weber State appeared in nine postseason tournaments in 11 years from 06-07 to 16-17 including three NCAA Tournaments but has gone through a dry spell since. With two of the Wildcats biggest roadblocks going down, the opportunity presents itself to go dancing this year and I look for them to take a step in that direction on Monday. Take Weber State (10*). |
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03-10-24 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -4.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Appalachian State minus the points over Arkansas State at 6 pm et on Sunday. Arkansas State just missed my card on Sunday and it was a mistake leaving the Red Wolves off as they rolled to a 27-point rout of Louisiana-Lafayette to advance to the semi-final round of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. I expect the shoe to be on the other foot on Sunday, however, as the Red Wolves are likely to be overmatched by the Mountaineers. Appalachian State needed overtime to get past Georgia Southern yesterday. The Mountaineers got a little ahead of themselves in that game thinking the Eagles were going to roll over down by double-digits at halftime. That wasn't the case and Appalachian State needed a late push in overtime to secure the victory. After that scare, I expect the Mountaineers to turn in a complete effort on Sunday. They're a much better defensive team than they showed in the second half of yesterday's game, checking in ranked 29th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Arkansas State does boast the 67th ranked offense in the country (according to KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency rankings) but I question whether it used up everything it had in the tank yesterday, knocking down 34-of-68 field goal attempts in the victory over Louisiana-Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns didn't pose any sort of offensive threat in that contest, notably making good on just 3-of-15 three-point attempts. Appalachian State elected not to involve the three-point game yesterday, attempting just 10 shots from beyond the arc. Keep in mind, the Mountaineers made good on 8-of-17 three-point attempts in an 80-57 rout of the Red Wolves just last week. Take Appalachian State (10*). |
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03-09-24 | Georgia Tech +8.5 v. Virginia | Top | 57-72 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Virginia at 8 pm et on Saturday. This is quite simply a case of two teams heading in opposite directions as Georgia Tech comes in having won four of its last five games SU and five of its last six ATS while Virginia has dropped the cash in five of its last six contests, winning outright only twice over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets faced the Cavaliers at their best back in mid-January as Virginia was in the midst of an eight-game winning streak. Meanwhile, that loss against Virginia marked the first of three straight defeats and part of a 2-12 stretch overall. Note that Georgia Tech is 52-47 ATS in its last 99 games as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Yellow Jackets are also a long-term 97-80 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more, as is the case here, including a 5-1 ATS record in that spot this season. Virginia is a woeful 8-25 ATS in its last 33 contests following a loss by 20 points or more in-conference. Take Georgia Tech (10*). |
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03-09-24 | North Carolina v. Duke -5.5 | 84-79 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Duke minus the points over North Carolina at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. The Tar Heels took the first matchup between these two teams this season back on February 3rd and that game wasn't particularly close as they led by double-digits at halftime and cruised the rest of the way. I look for the Blue Devils to answer back at Cameron Indoor on Saturday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing better offensive basketball than Duke right now as it has connected on 32, 30 and 32 field goals over its last three games. On the flip side, I like how the Blue Devils have been frustrating the opposition at the defensive end of the floor, holding each of their last four opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. The Tar Heels offense has been on point as well but hasn't proven to travel all that well this season. Note that North Carolina has connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of its nine true road games this season. That likely has something to do with the fact that it's more difficult for the Tar Heels to play at their preferred up-tempo pace away from home. Note that Duke ranks 242nd in the country in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. North Carolina is just 25-39 ATS in its last 64 games as a road underdog of six points or less including a 2-7 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Tar Heels are also just 10-12 ATS in their last 22 contests following a win by 30 points or more in-conference, as is the case here, including an 0-1 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Duke is 40-36 ATS in its last 76 games following three straight ATS wins as a favorite, which is the situation here, including a 4-2 ATS mark this season. The Blue Devils are a long-term 215-180 ATS as a home favorite including an 11-6 ATS record this season. Take Duke (8*). |
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03-09-24 | Kansas v. Houston -8 | 46-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. The Jayhawks blasted the Cougars 78-65 in the previous meeting between these two teams this season but that was in Lawrence. Here, Kansas comes in feeling pretty good about itself after a 22-point rout of rival Kansas State on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Houston has dropped the cash in three straight games. Note that the Cougars are a long-term 128-116 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Better still, they're 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a road favorite, as is the case here. Kansas is just 13-15 ATS in its last 28 road games including a 3-5 ATS mark away from home this season. Take Houston (8*). |
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03-08-24 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts UNDER 153.5 | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Friday. I think 'over' bettors may be trying to fit a square peg into a round hole in this particular matchup on Friday. While both teams have struggled defensively all season long, I'm not sure either team is capable of taking advantage offensively. South Dakota has drawn every bit of efficiency out of its offense down the stretch, connecting on 27 or more field goals in eight of its last nine games but it is playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games. It runs into an Oral Roberts squad that did play some of its best defensive basketball of the season down the stretch, limiting four of its last five foes to 26 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Golden Eagles allowed an opponent to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. In two regular season meetings we saw both teams hoist up at least 60 field goal attempts in both matchups yet those two games stayed 'under' the total. The 'under' is 26-20 in South Dakota's last 46 tournament games. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 43-32 in Oral Roberts last 75 tournament contests including a 6-2 mark over the last three seasons. Additionally, the 'under' is 28-13 ATS in the Golden Eagles last 41 games following an ATS loss, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-08-24 | Western Illinois v. Arkansas-Little Rock -5.5 | Top | 57-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas-Little Rock minus the points over Western Illinois at 8 pm et on Friday. Western Illinois enters this game on the heels of four straight wins but I think it's going to be in tough against Little Rock, which has reeled off nine straight victories and checks in 9-1 ATS over its last 10 contests. The problem Western Illinois is facing here is that it has allowed five straight opponents to get off at least 63 field goal attempts. Little Rock couldn't be any hotter offensively having connected on 28 or more field goals in five straight games and should welcome the up-tempo nature of this contest, ranking inside the top-100 in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Defensively, Little Rock has been locked in lately, holding four of its last five opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. In fact, the Trojans have limited an incredible 13 of their last 14 opponents to 25 or fewer successful field goal attempts. The Bulldogs are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games following a win by three points or less over a conference opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Trojans are 15-11 ATS in their last 26 contests following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite. Take Arkansas-Little Rock (10*). |
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03-07-24 | Niagara -7 v. Siena | Top | 66-59 | Push | 0 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Siena at 7 pm et on Thursday. This is undoubtedly a game Niagara has had circled on its calendar since dropping a wild 93-88 decision at home against Siena back on January 15th. That was about as strange of a game as they come as the Saints connected on just four three-pointers but shot 62.5% from the field and knocked down a whopping 31 free throws. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here, or anything close. Note that Siena has been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 12 straight games. On the flip side, the Saints have allowed four straight opponents to connect on at least 27 field goals. Niagara has been struggling, dropping three straight games all in a favorite role. Note that the Purple Eagles are 21-11 ATS in their last 32 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. They're also 35-24 ATS in their last 59 contests following three straight ATS losses including a perfect 5-0 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Siena is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 games following consecutive ATS victories including an 0-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Saints are also 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games following a road defeat in which they scored fewer than 60 points. Take Niagara (10*). |
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03-06-24 | Boston College v. Miami-FL OVER 151.5 | Top | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Miami at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Miami has inexplicably been idle since a week ago Monday, when it dropped a 75-71 decision on the road against North Carolina - its seventh straight defeat. Boston College enters on the heels of four straight losses but it has been making 'over' bettors happy with each of its last six contests sailing 'over' the total. I look for more of the same on Wednesday. While the Miami offense has struggled lately, it does continue to push the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games. The Hurricanes rank 112th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom this season. Going up against Boston College's matador-like defense should serve Miami well in this spot. The Eagles have allowed eight of their last nine opponents to make good on at least 27 field goals. Boston College ranks 173rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, not good for a Power-5 program. On the flip side, the Eagles have been fairly consistent offensively, making good on 25 or more field goals in five of their last six games with a low-water mark of 24 made field goals over their last nine contests. Miami, like Boston College, has struggled defensively allowing its last four opponents to connect on 28, 28, 30 and 27 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 19-12 in Boston College's last 31 games as a road underdog and 16-6 in its last 22 contests when coming off a game that totalled 155 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-15 in Miami's last 42 games as a home favorite and 7-5 in its last 12 contests following a road loss in-conference. Take the over (10*). |
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03-05-24 | San Diego State v. UNLV UNDER 136 | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego State and UNLV at 11 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 133 points and I believe they'll be hard-pressed to top that number in Tuesday's rematch. UNLV is quietly playing as well defensively as any team in the country right now having held five straight opponents to 21 or fewer made field goals and nine in a row to 23 or less. This matchup is right back in the Runnin' Rebels wheelhouse as San Diego State ranks 240th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and its strength lies at the defensive end of the floor rather than on offense. The Aztecs are actually coming off a subpar defensive effort against lowly San Jose State last time out. They've had a week to stew on that performance and I'm confident we'll see their eighth ranked (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency) defense step up again here. We've seen San Diego State hold a pair of opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals in its last five games. On the flip side, UNLV is one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 302nd in adjusted tempo. Note that the 'under' is 33-16 in the Aztecs last 49 games with the total set in the 140's, including a 7-4 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 32-21 in their last 53 contests following consecutive victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 46-40 in UNLV's last 86 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 3-1 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-04-24 | Texas v. Baylor -6.5 | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Texas at 9 pm et on Monday. Baylor continues to fly under the radar as a true national title contender perhaps overshadowed in a year where an expanded Big 12 boasts so many elite teams. The Bears enter this game off a dominant victory over Kansas on Saturday. They check in ranked 14th in the country according to KenPom with a unique mix of efficient but slow offense, ranking top-five in adjusted offensive efficiency but 301st in adjusted tempo. I expect that mix to frustrate Texas on Monday as the Bears look to avenge an earlier 75-73 loss against the Longhorns. Texas is in a log-jam in the middle of the Big 12 standings but it comes in satisfied following consecutive blowout wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Note that the Longhorns are just 10-16 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog. They're 6-10 ATS in their last 16 contests following a double-digit win in-conference including a 1-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Additionally, Texas is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 contests following consecutive victories including a 1-8 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Baylor checks in 27-20 ATS in its last 47 games when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent including a perfect 2-0 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Bears are a solid positive momentum play having gone 20-16 ATS in their last 36 contests after scoring 80 points or more and 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games after an ATS victory (15-12 ATS in their last 27 after consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here). Take Baylor (10*). |
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03-03-24 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Niagara -3 | 91-72 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Mount St. Mary's at 2 pm et on Sunday. Niagara is in a prime bounce-back spot on Sunday as it looks to rebound following consecutive double-digit losses. The Purple Eagles already outlasted Mount St. Mary's by an 82-71 score, on the road no less, back on January 21st. Niagara has gone 2-1 SU and ATS since Mount St. Mary's joined the MAAC in 2022. The Mountaineers have won just once in their last five games and that came at home. You would have to go back four road games to find the last time they posted a victory and that came against lowly Siena - one of the worst teams in the entire country let alone the MAAC. Niagara checks in 26-15 ATS in its last 41 games following consecutive double-digit losses. That situation has only come up once in the last three seasons and the Purple Eagles delivered the cash on that occasion as well. They're 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after consecutive ATS losses including a 2-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Mount St. Mary's is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 contests after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games, as is the case here, including an 0-2 ATS record this season. Take Niagara (8*). |
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03-02-24 | NC State v. North Carolina OVER 153.5 | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina State and North Carolina at 4 pm et on Saturday. Including the first meeting this season we've now seen three straight matchups in this rivalry stay 'under' the total. Going back to the turn of the century we've seen a four-game 'under' streak in this series only once - that coming back in 2017. I'm anticipating a considerably higher-scoring affair on Saturday. The Wolfpack were not playing well offensively the last time these two teams matched up. In fact, N.C. State was mired in a shooting slump that saw it connect on fewer than 20 field goals in two of three games. It's a much different story this time around. N.C. State has connected on 26 or more field goals in eight straight games. There's reason to believe the Wolfpack will be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities in this contest as North Carolina has allowed seven of its last eight foes to hoist up more than 60 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Wolfpack have been getting boat raced defensively in recent weeks. They've allowed 29, 27, 30, 25 and 37 made field goals over their last five contests. North Carolina checks in top-25 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 38th in adjusted tempo, both according to KenPom. Note that the 'over' is 6-1 in N.C. State's last seven games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 30-23 in the Wolfpack's last 53 contests following an ATS defeat. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 62-47 in North Carolina's last 109 games following a win by six points or less including a 5-3 record in that situation over the last three seasons. The 'over' is also 26-20 in the Tar Heels last 46 games following an ATS loss including a 6-4 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-02-24 | Wyoming v. Colorado State -15 | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado State minus the points over Wyoming at 4 pm et on Saturday. To illustrate just how tough the Mountain West Conference is this season look no further than the fact that a team as good as Colorado State (ranked 33rd in the country according to KenPom) sits in seventh place with an even 8-8 record. The Rams enter this contest on the heels of three straight losses but I look for them to 'get right' against the Cowboys. This is a revenge game for Colorado State after it dropped a 79-76 decision on the road back on January 27th. That game saw a wide disparity at the free throw line in favor of Wyoming as it knocked down twice as many free throws as Colorado State (20-10). The script should flip in Saturday's rematch, noting that the Rams have permitted an average of just 15 trips to the charity stripe at home this season. Colorado State ranks 34th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and checks in having held eight straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals, limiting half of those foes to 22 or less. Offensively, the Rams haven't been setting the world on fire and part of that is by design as they sit 271st in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). With that said, I see this as a breakout spot against a bad Wyoming defense that has allowed 26 or more made field goals in five of its last six and 14 of its last 16 games overall. The Cowboys rank 248th in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cowboys are just 18-27 ATS in their last 45 games following an ATS loss including a 5-10 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Rams are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 5-2 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Colorado State (10*). |
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03-02-24 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 145.5 | 74-82 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and Baylor at 1 pm et on Saturday. This has predominantly been a low-scoring series with the 'under' going 17-5 in the last 22 meetings including a 64-61 Kansas victory in the first matchup this season. Despite coming off a stunning home loss against BYU, the Jayhawks have shown signs of rounding into late season form defensively, holding six of their last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals and three of those foes to fewer than 20. Kansas has climbed to ninth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. While it generally plays at a fast pace, I do think we'll see it attempt to effectively shorten proceedings on Saturday as a road underdog against revenge-minded Baylor. The Bears have had their share of breakout performances offensively but in general, remain a work-in-progress at that end of the floor where they've connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of their last nine contests. Note that Baylor ranks 296th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and has gotten off 56 or fewer field goal attempts in nine straight games. Defensively, the Bears are coming off arguably their best performance of the season as they held TCU to just 17 made field goals in a 62-54 victory. Note that the 'under' is 10-5 in Kansas' last 15 games following a loss in-conference including a 4-1 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also a long-term 33-29 in the Jayhawks last 62 contests with the total set in the 140's including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-5 in Baylor's last 16 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a perfect 4-0 mark this season. The 'under' is also 19-14 in the Bears last 33 games following a win in-conference including a 6-2 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-01-24 | Fresno State v. Nevada UNDER 137.5 | Top | 66-74 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and Nevada at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Fresno State's most recent game went 'over' the total but that was only thanks to overtime. The Bulldogs haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' since a five-game streak from January 16th to 30th. Note that they held an up-tempo Utah State team to just 47 field goal attempts in regulation time last time out. In fact, they've limited three of their last four opponents to 51 or fewer field goal attempts. While the Aggies did get their fair share of opportunities at the free throw line in Wednesday's contest, Fresno State is actually allowing just 16 free throw attempts per game this season so it's not really a recurring theme. While the Bulldogs did get loose a bit offensively against Utah State, it faces a tougher challenge on Friday with Nevada ranked 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 245th in adjusted tempo this season (both according to KenPom). The Wolf Pack have held seven of their last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Fresno State has knocked down just 23 field goals per game on the road this season. As I mentioned, Nevada's preferred pace is slow, noting that it hasn't hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in a game since February 2nd against a matador-like defense in San Jose State. The 'under' is 10-8 in Fresno State's last 18 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-2 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-18 in Nevada's last 41 contests following an 'over' result including a 7-3 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also a long-term 50-39 in Nevada's last 89 games after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games. Take the under (10*). |
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03-01-24 | Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -7 | Top | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Southern Miss at 8:30 pm et on Friday. Louisiana-Lafayette has inexplicably gone in the tank dropping four straight games both SU and ATS entering Friday's regular season finale against Southern Miss. Included in that four-game slide was a stunning 82-71 loss at Southern Miss last Saturday. I look for the Ragin' Cajuns to break out of their funk and exact some swift revenge on their home floor on Friday. The Golden Eagles have done well to hang onto sixth place in the Sun Belt Conference standings - tied with the Ragin' Cajuns, in fact. They've certainly had some good fortune along the way. Note that KenPom has them ranked 224th nationally but 47th in terms of its 'luck rating' metric. I simply feel we'll see Southern Miss' defense get overwhelmed in this particular spot. Note that the Eagles have allowed 25 or more made field goals in nine of their last 11 games with six of their last nine foes hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts. That should be music to the ears of the Ragin' Cajuns shooters, noting that Louisiana-Lafayette is desperate for a breakout and plays fast having gotten off 64 or more field goal attempts in four of its last five contests. Defensively, the Ragin' Cajuns have admittedly been inconsistent lately but have limited four of their last six opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. They rank a respectable 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom despite playing fast, checking in 118th in the nation in adjusted tempo. Note that Southern Miss is 0-9 ATS as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points over the last three seasons including an 0-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Louisiana-Lafayette is 18-13 ATS in its last 31 contests as a home favorite including a 6-4 ATS record this season. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*). |
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02-29-24 | Gonzaga v. San Francisco UNDER 155.5 | 86-68 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and San Francisco at 11 pm et on Thursday. The 'under' has cashed in three of four meetings between these two teams going back to the start of last season including the lone previous matchup this year. With this game being played at the Chase Center in San Francisco, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest than most. San Francisco has played just once previously on this court this season, securing a 76-58 win over Minnesota back in November. The Golden Gophers had a miserable time trying to break through against the Dons defense in that game, connecting on just 22-of-50 field goal attempts. Note that San Francisco ranks 42nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). The Dons also check in just 202nd in adjusted tempo. They're certainly locked-in defensively right now having held three straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals and eight of their last nine foes to 25 or fewer. Gonzaga obviously likes to play much faster and is currently on an incredible offensive tear. With that being said, there shouldn't be any intimidation factor at play here as San Francisco has held it to just 27 and 24 made field goals in the last two meetings. Note that the 'under' is 15-13 in Gonzaga's last 28 games played on a neutral court including a 4-1 mark this season. The 'under' is also 12-7 in the Zags last 19 games following consecutive double-digit wins over conference opponents, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 14-4 in San Francisco's last 18 contests played on a neutral court including a 3-1 mark this season. The 'under' is also 13-8 in the Dons last 21 games after a home win in which they scored 85 points or more. Take the under (8*). |
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02-28-24 | Virginia +1.5 v. Boston College | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia plus the points over Boston College at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I see this as a 'get right' spot for the reeling Cavaliers as they look to snap their two-game losing streak and cover the spread for the first time in five games. Even in Saturday's double-digit loss to North Carolina, Virginia still held the Tar Heels to just 16 made field goals. In fact, the Cavaliers have allowed only two of their last 12 opponents to knock down more than 24 field goals. It's been the Virginia offense that has struggled lately but this is a favorable matchup in that regard. Boston College has been matador-like defensively in recent weeks, allowing its last seven foes to make good on 30, 28, 30, 30, 27, 28 and 27 field goals. Virginia did drop the most recent meeting in this series last February but it was four straight wins prior to that and the Cavaliers haven't lost consecutive matchups with the Eagles since 2011. Note that Virginia is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games on the road with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 2-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Boston College is 8-10 ATS in its last 18 contests after giving up 80 points or more in its previous game including a 2-6 ATS record in that situation this season. Take Virginia (8*). |
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02-28-24 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State -10 | 45-58 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Oklahoma at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Iowa State has undoubtedly had this game circled on its calendar since dropping a 71-63 decision on the road against Oklahoma back in early January. Since then the Cyclones have gone on a tear, going 10-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS over its last 13 games. With that being said, they enter Wednesday's rematch having failed to deliver the cash in consecutive games. I look for that to change here. Iowa State is locked-in defensively right now having held seven straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. That's in stark contrast to the Sooners who have allowed 28, 26 and 35 made field goals over their last three contests, albeit aided by overtime in their most recent game. Speaking of that most recent game, it was a big one for Oklahoma as it went on the road and staged a minor upset win over rival Oklahoma State. Note that the Sooners are just 21-24 ATS in their last 45 games following an upset win on the road including a 2-4 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons (0-2 ATS this season). They're also just 16-27 ATS in their last 43 contests following a win by three points or less in-conference. Meanwhile, Iowa State is 40-26 ATS in its last 66 contests off a home victory but non-cover including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Cyclones have been an excellent positive momentum play having gone 36-24 ATS in their last 60 games following a win including a 13-6 ATS mark when coming off a victory this season. Take Iowa State (8*). |
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02-27-24 | Nevada v. Colorado State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and Colorado State at 11:30 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a considerably higher posted total the last time these two teams met on January 24th. That game ultimately stayed 'under' that number but did go higher than the total we're working with on Tuesday. I still don't feel the oddsmakers have made enough of an adjustment. Nevada saw its last game go 'over' the total thanks to an offensive outburst against a miserable San Jose State defense. Note that the Wolf Pack are locked-in defensively right now having held three straight and five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. Colorado State doesn't figure to push the pace on Nevada, noting that the Rams rank 271st in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Speaking of being locked-in defensively, the Rams have climbed into the top-25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom) thanks to a stretch that has seen them limit seven straight foes to 24 or fewer made field goals. Nevada checks in just 241st in adjusted tempo and has hoisted up 58 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight contests, reaching 52 or less in half of those games. Note that the 'under' is 6-1 in Nevada's last seven games as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points including a 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 9-5 in the Wolf Pack's last 14 contests following a double-digit win over a conference foe including a 5-1 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-10 in Colorado State's last 33 games with the total set in the 130's, as is the case here at the time of writing. The Rams have also seen the 'under' go 14-5 in their last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more including a 5-2 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-26-24 | Coppin State v. Howard UNDER 138.5 | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
MEAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coppin State and Howard at 7:30 pm et on Monday. When these two teams met on January 29th they combined to score 147 points as Howard won in a 15-point rout. Note that they combined to knock down a whopping 43 free throws in that contest. To compare, last year's two meetings saw a grand total of just 50 made free throws and the two teams average only 29 made free throws per game combined this season. Coppin State rides an eight-game losing streak into this game. It hasn't made it easy on the opposition lately, however, holding four straight foes to 55 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, it has limited six of its last seven opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Coppin State offense has been dreadful. It ranks 361st (out of 362 Division I teams) nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Eagles have made good on 21 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games. Howard remains incredibly stingy defensively, holding three of its last four opponents to 51 or fewer field goal attempts and 11 of its last 12 foes to 58 or fewer. The Bison offense isn't going to set the world on fire, knocking down 26 or fewer field goals in 11 of its last 12 contests. Howard has hoisted up 57 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of its last 13 games overall. Note that the 'under' is 8-5 in Coppin State's last 13 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent. The 'under' is also 7-2 in the Eagles last nine contests following a home loss by three points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 25-20 in Howard's last 45 games as a favorite including an 8-5 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 21-11 in the Bison's last 32 games following a victory by six points or less. Take the under (10*). |
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02-26-24 | Miami-FL +14 v. North Carolina | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over North Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday. Miami has now lost six straight games to fall all the way to 12th in the ACC standings. With games left against Boston College and Florida State, the Hurricanes can still move up two or three spots in advance of the ACC Tournament but they need to turn things around now. This is undoubtedly a game the Canes have had circled on their schedule as they let the Tar Heels off the hook in a narrow three-point loss against them back on February 10th. Miami connected on just six three-point attempts in that game and got to the free throw line only 13 times (making good on 10 of those attempts) in the loss. Since then it's been all downhill but I do think we'll see Miami rise to the occasion here. North Carolina checks in off a 54-44 victory over Virginia on Saturday. The Cavaliers quite simply couldn't take advantage of their scoring opportunities in that game, making good on only 16-of-58 field goal attempts. Keep in mind, the Tar Heels had allowed at least 27 made field goals in five straight games prior to that contest. While North Carolina has yielded 30 or more made field goals twice in its last six games, Miami has done so just once in its last 12 contests (that happened on Saturday against Georgia Tech). Currently pacing the ACC by a game, the Tar Heels undoubtedly have their sights set on their regular season finale - a showdown with Duke on March 9th that might just decide who goes into the ACC Tournament as the number one seed. Note that the underdog has won four straight games ATS in this series. Despite their struggles this season, the Canes remain a long-term 123-79 ATS as a road underdog including a 12-9 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. They're also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, North Carolina is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. The Tar Heels are also just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 contests following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite including a 3-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Miami (10*). |
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02-25-24 | Quinnipiac v. Rider UNDER 153 | 78-88 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Quinnipiac and Rider at 2 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring affairs on Friday but I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon. Quinnipiac is reeling off three straight losses - its longest losing streak of the season. On a positive note, it has done a slightly better job defensively in recent weeks, holding six straight opponents to 61 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, the Bobcats have limited three of their last five foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. Rider may be known for its offense but it hasn't been playing at all that fast of a pace lately, getting off 56 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. The Broncs will be looking to extend their three-game winning streak and after dropping a wild, high-scoring 88-84 decision on the road against the Bobcats back in early January, I'm not convinced they'll be interested in a track meet again here. Note that the 'over' has cashed in the last two meetings in this series and that matches the longest such streak over the course of 23 all-time matchups between these two teams. The last time we saw consecutive 'over' results in this series the next matchup reached just 138 total points. The 'under' is 17-10 in Quinnipiac's last 27 games following three straight losses in-conference including a 5-1 mark over the last three seasons. The 'under' is also 7-4 in the Bobcats last 11 contests after allowing 85 points in their previous game, as is the case here, including a 4-1 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 18-13 in Rider's last 31 games following a home victory by three points or less including a 5-1 record in that situation over the last three seasons (1-0 this season). Additionally, the 'under' is 25-20 in the Broncs last 45 home games with the total set in the 150's. Take the under (8*). |
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02-24-24 | Colorado State v. UNLV -1 | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on UNLV minus the points over Colorado State at 8 pm et on Saturday. It's revenge week for UNLV as it follows up Wednesday's 72-43 rout of Air Force with a matchup against Colorado State on Saturday. The Rams took the first meeting between these two teams by a 78-75 score on January 19th. The difference on that night was Colorado State knocked down 10 three-pointers compared to UNLV's five. The shoe should be on the other foot in Las Vegas, where the Runnin' Rebels average eight made threes per game this season. UNLV checks in playing as well defensively as any team in the nation right now. The Rebels have held six straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last seven foes to 53 or fewer field goal attempts. Colorado State is an excellent defensive team as well but it has been playing a little looser lately, allowing four of its last five opponents to get off at least 56 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Rams offense has made good on 25 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. Colorado State is a long-term loser following a loss at 146-166 ATS including a 9-17 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. UNLV on the other hand is 16-13 ATS in its last 29 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a 5-1 ATS record in that situation this season. Take UNLV (8*). |
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02-24-24 | Grambling State v. Southern UNDER 133 | Top | 63-57 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
SWAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Grambling and Southern at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams met back on January 20th and combined to score 141 points in a double-digit Grambling victory. I expect a lower-scoring affair in Saturday's rematch. Note that Grambling has quietly held 11 of its last 13 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. The Tigers rank 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Southern has gotten off 54 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. The Jaguars have made good on 23 or fewer field goals in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, they've arguably been even better than the Tigers defensively in recent weeks. Southern has limited an incredible nine straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back 13 games to find the last time a Southern opponent hoisted up more than 53 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 8-4 in Grambling's last 12 road games with the total set between 130 and 139.5 points including a perfect 4-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-10 in Southern's last 25 home games including a perfect 7-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-24-24 | Duke v. Wake Forest -2.5 | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wake Forest minus the points over Duke at 2 pm et on Saturday. Wake Forest didn't play well in its most recent matchup against Duke on February 12th yet it still lost by 'only' eight points, on the road no less. Here, the Demon Deacons have a shot at quick revenge as they host the Blue Devils on Saturday having gone a perfect 14-0 on their home floor this season. Duke benefited from an ice cold Miami offense on Wednesday as the Hurricanes made good on just 19-of-61 field goal attempts. Note that the Blue Devils have allowed five of their last seven opponents to make good on at least 24 field goals. Wake Forest figures to take advantage. The Demon Deacons have connected on 27 or more field goals in six of their last seven contests. On the flip side, they've held three of their last five foes to 22 or fewer made field goals. Note that Duke is 9-14 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog of three points or less including an 0-2 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Wake Forest is a modest 23-22 ATS in its last 45 games as a home favorite of three points or less but 4-1 ATS in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Wake Forest (8*). |
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02-23-24 | Fairfield v. Quinnipiac -2 | 85-81 | Loss | -114 | 25 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Quinnipiac minus the points over Fairfield at 9 pm et on Friday. Quinnipiac has had four full days to stew on its second straight loss, which came on the heels of a 10-game winning streak. I look for the Bobcats to take out their frustrations on Fairfield on Friday. The Stags are fresh off a 94-80 home win over Mount St. Mary's. Still, they rank 236th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and I fully expect them to have their hands full with a Quinnipiac offense that pushes the pace at every opportunity. The Bobcats have gotten off 63 or more field goal attempts in four of their last five games. On the flip side, they've held three of their last four foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. Note that Fairfield is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit home win including a 1-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Quinnipiac is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 contests following a double-digit loss against a conference opponent, as is the case here. Take Quinnipiac (8*). |
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02-22-24 | Washington State v. Arizona UNDER 151 | Top | 77-74 | Push | 0 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Arizona at 11 pm et on Thursday. Washington State has broken into the top-25 for the first time in an eternity and now it draws a difficult road test against a revenge-minded Arizona squad in Tucson on Thursday. The first meeting between these teams ended 73-70 in favor of the Cougars, cruising 'under' the total. In fact, the 'under' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series. Washington State enters this game locked-in defensively having held four straight and five of its last six opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Note that it limited Arizona to just 25 made field goals despite yielding 72 field goal attempts back on January 13th. The Wildcats are on a tear offensively but they've also faced mostly up-tempo opponents over the last few weeks. Note that Washington State ranks 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and will almost certainly look to slow this game down and effectively shorten proceedings as a double-digit underdog on Thursday. While Arizona is known for its offensive prowess, it can play some defense as well, checking in ranked 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Wildcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Washington State has made good on 25 or fewer field goals in three of its last four contests. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 41-19 with the Cougars coming off consecutive wins by 10 points or more, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 18-12 in their last 30 games as an underdog including a 5-2 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-7 in Arizona's last 16 games following three straight 'over' results, including 2-0 in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-5 in the Wildcats last 15 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including 1-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-21-24 | UNLV v. Air Force UNDER 133.5 | 72-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and Air Force at 11 pm et on Wednesday. The first matchup between these two teams this season was no contest as Air Force came up with its best performance of the season in a 90-58 victory in Las Vegas. That game soared over the total and as a result we're working with a higher number for this rematch. I believe it will prove too high. Keep in mind, these are two of the slowest paced teams in the country. UNLV checks in 299th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Air Force sits 358th (out of 362 Division I teams). The Falcons have connected on 21 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games and haven't played in over a week (they last took the floor on February 13th at San Jose State). On the flip side, Air Force has held five consecutive opponents to 50 or fewer field goal attempts. UNLV has almost matched Air Force step for step in that regard, limiting four of its last five foes to 52 or fewer field goal attempts and three of those to fewer than 50. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 in UNLV's last 11 games following a home loss in-conference, as is the case here. While Air Force enters riding a long 'over' streak (10 straight games), the 'under' remains 29-27 in its last 56 contests as an underdog. Take the under (8*). |
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02-21-24 | UNLV -5.5 v. Air Force | Top | 72-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV minus the points over Air Force at 11 pm et on Wednesday. UNLV is flashing in this revenge spot against Air Force. The Runnin' Rebels turned in their worst performance of the entire season in a 90-58 home loss against the Falcons back in January. Note that UNLV is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite and a perfect 4-0 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss by 20 points or more against an opponent going all the way back to 1997 (only once over that stretch have they sought revenge for a home loss by 30 points or more). The Rebels enter this game locked-in defensively having held five straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, Air Force has connected on 21 or fewer field goals in three of its last four games. In fact, the Falcons have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting 52 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. While Air Force has done a tremendous job of slowing the pace and effectively shortening proceedings it has still allowed six straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to connect on at least 24 field goals despite six straight foes only managing to get off 51 or fewer field goal attempts. The problem here is that UNLV is comfortable playing at that slow pace as it ranks 299th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Rebels were held to just 22 made field goals in a narrow three-point loss to Nevada last time out but they have proven consistent offensively, making good on 24 or more field goals in nine of their last 11 contests, despite playing at that slow tempo. Note that UNLV is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a home loss in-conference and 6-1 ATS in its last seven contests following an upset loss at home, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Air Force is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games after losing six straight contests ATS and 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games off a road loss against a conference foe. Take UNLV (10*). |
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02-21-24 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 71-83 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The first matchup between these rivals was a high-scoring barn-burner with the Rebels prevailing 86-82 on their home floor back in late January. I expect a much different game to play out in Wednesday's rematch. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series. We haven't seen three straight matchups between these two teams go 'over' the total since 2019-20 and prior to that 2005-06. Ole Miss snapped its three-game losing streak with a narrow win over Missouri last time out. You could see the Rebels shifting their focus to the defensive end of the floor as that losing skid grew. They enter this contest having held their last two opponents to just 54 and 49 field goal attempts. Keep in mind, Ole Miss ranks 244th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Rebels have played considerably faster from an offensive standpoint at home this season, averaging two fewer made field goals on two fewer field goal attempts compared to their season average on the road. Mississippi State has hoisted up fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games, making good on 25 or fewer field goals in four of those contests. Like the Rebels, the Bulldogs are showing signs of locking in defensively, limiting their last three foes to 57, 47 and 55 field goal attempts and holding three straight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 9-3 in Ole Miss' last 12 games following a win in-conference and 41-33 in its last 74 contests after allowing 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-7 in Mississippi State's last 23 games following three straight victories. Take the under (10*). |
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02-21-24 | Duke v. Miami-FL +5.5 | 84-55 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Duke at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Devils are red hot right now, winners of four games in a row, both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, Miami has lost four consecutive games, going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. This is college basketball and any team is capable of rising up on any given night and I'm confident we'll see the Hurricanes do just that on Wednesday. Miami has now held six straight opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. The issue last time out was that it could only muster 51 field goal attempts itself in an 85-77 road loss against Boston College. Duke has allowed seven straight opponents to hoist up at least 57 field goal attempts and that should favor the Hurricanes and their 68th ranked offense (according to KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric) here. Note that Duke is just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 games after scoring 75 points or more in three consecutive games, as is the case here. It is also 27-37 ATS in its last 64 contests following four straight ATS victories as a favorite, which is also the situation on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Miami is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite of six points or less and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 contests following a road loss in-conference. Take Miami (8*). |
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02-21-24 | St. John's -10 v. Georgetown | Top | 90-85 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Week. My selection is on St. John's minus the points over Georgetown at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I think we'll see St. John's go off on Wednesday as it looks to snap its three-game losing streak with a road date against Georgetown. The Red Storm continue to afford themselves plenty of scoring opportunities as they've hoisted up 69, 71, 69 and 68 field goal attempts over their last four games. Sunday's loss against Seton Hall snapped a streak of three straight games in which they connected on at least 28 field goals. Note that St. John's will be facing a Georgetown squad that ranks 307th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) on Wednesday. The Hoyas have allowed eight straight opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals with five of those foes connecting on 32 or more. On the flip side, the Red Storm have held four of their last five opponents to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that Georgetown has made good on 27 or fewer field goals in seven straight games and that's despite getting off more than 60 field goal attempts in five of those contests. St. John's checks in 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five contests following three straight losses against conference foes. Meanwhile, Georgetown is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games as a home underdog and 6-9 ATS in its last 15 contests following consecutive double-digit losses against conference opponents. Take St. John's (10*). |
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02-20-24 | Baylor v. BYU -3 | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on BYU minus the points over Baylor at 9 pm et on Tuesday. BYU got caught flat-footed on the road against Oklahoma State on Saturday as the Cowboys quite simply shot the lights out in a blowout victory. I look for the Cougars to bounce back as they look for revenge at home against Baylor on Tuesday. BYU dropped an 81-72 decision against the Bears in Waco back in early January. Since then, the Cougars have been on a bit of a roller-coaster but so have the Bears. Baylor enters this contest 'fat and happy' off a 94-81 road win over West Virginia on Saturday. Note that the Bears are just 9-11 ATS in their last 20 games following consecutive wins in-conference. Meanwhile, BYU is 47-28 ATS in its last 75 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a perfect 2-0 ATS mark this season. Take BYU (8*). |
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02-20-24 | Bowling Green +1.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 60-62 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Bowling Green plus the points over Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This is a true 'get right' game for Bowling Green after it was blasted by Louisiana and Eastern Michigan in its last two contests. Here, the Falcons will have revenge on their minds after suffering a 77-76 home loss against Central Michigan earlier this month. The Chippewas have benefited from some good fortune this season as they rank second in the country in luck rating according to KenPom's metrics. It shows as the Chips have held six of their last eight opponents to 24 made field goals or less despite six of those foes getting off at least 60 field goal attempts. In fact, Central Michigan has allowed its last five opponents to hoist up 66, 73, 70, 60 and 69 field goal attempts. It also checks in 324th in the country (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted offensive rating. Bowling Green prefers to play at a fast pace - it simply hasn't been able to cash in on its opportunities over the last couple of games. I'm confident it can flip the script in this matchup. There's a fairly well-defined offensive ceiling in play when it comes to CMU as it has connected on 26 or fewer field goals in eight of its last nine games. The lone outlier over that stretch actually came against Bowling Green as the Chips made good on 31-of-61 field goal attempts in that game. I don't think there's any question the Falcons got caught looking past CMU on that occasion as they were fresh off an upset road win over Ball State. Note that Bowling Green is 3-1 ATS when coming off a loss in-conference this season and a perfect 2-0 ATS when that loss came on the road. Central Michigan is a long-term 67-84 ATS in its last 151 games after consecutive ATS wins including an 8-11 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Bowling Green (10*). |
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02-19-24 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -3.5 | Top | 41-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia Tech minus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. This is undoubtedly a game the Hokies have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 65-57 loss against the Cavaliers back on January 17th. Virginia Tech turned the basketball over 15 times in that game, allowing Virginia to play its game and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The straight-up winner has covered the spread in 16 straight matchups between these in-state rivals. The Cavaliers have expended plenty of energy during their 9-1 run to climb to third place in the ACC. Meanwhile, the Hokies have a lot of work to do as they sit 6-8 in conference play with six games left on the schedule. The good news is the schedule is fairly forgiving down the stretch but the Hokies need to turn it around here following Saturday's blowout loss at North Carolina. Note that Virginia is just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog of six points or less and 23-30 ATS in its last 53 contests following a win by three points or less against a conference opponent. Virginia Tech checks in 25-17 ATS in its last 42 games as a home favorite and 5-1 ATS in its last six contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less. Take Virginia Tech (10*). |
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02-18-24 | Canisius v. Siena OVER 137.5 | Top | 73-64 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Canisius and Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday. We've seen consecutive 'under' results in this series and that's notable as we haven't witnessed a streak of three straight meetings between these two teams going 'under' the total since an extended stretch of low-scoring matchups from 2005-08. Canisius can drag even the worst of opponents into a high-scoring affair, noting the Golden Griffins have allowed 28 or more made field goals in five straight games. They've also allowed eight of their last 11 opponents to get off at least 60 field goal attempts. In a similar vein, Siena has allowed six of its last 10 foes to hoist up at least 66 field goal attempts. Canisius is waiting for an opportunity to get out and run after getting bogged down in its last two games against Iona and Marist. Note that the Golden Griffins actually rank a respectable 130th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 130 total points but that game featured just eight combined made three-pointers. Note that these two teams average 13 combined made threes per game this season. The 'over' is 28-18 in Canisius' last 46 road games with the total set between 135 and 139.5, as is the case here at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 4-1 in Siena's last five contests as a home underdog of three points or less and 14-12 in its last 26 contests when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Take the over (10*). |
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02-17-24 | Pacific v. Gonzaga UNDER 152.5 | Top | 76-102 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
WCC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pacific and Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Saturday. Pacific was far more competitive than expected in an 82-73 home loss against Gonzaga last month. While this game figures to be more lopsided, I also believe it will be lower-scoring. The Bulldogs used up a lot of what they had in the tank in Thursday's eventual rout of Loyola Marymount. That was a one-point game at halftime before Gonzaga poured it on in the second half. Note that the Bulldogs, while known for their offensive prowess, have also played some defense lately, holding nine straight opponents to 28 or fewer made field goals. Pacific doesn't figure to approach that number on Saturday, noting the Tigers have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in eight of their last nine games. In fact, Pacific has gotten off 53 or fewer field goal attempts in six of its last eight contests. The 'over' has cashed in two straight meetings between these teams but we haven't seen three consecutive 'over' results in series history (going back 20 all-time meetings since 2012). Note that the 'under' is 20-16 in Pacific's last 36 games as a road underdog and 13-5 in its last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-4 in Gonzaga's last 15 games following a road win over a conference foe and 18-13 in its last 31 contests following an ATS victory as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-17-24 | Kansas -125 v. Oklahoma | 67-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas moneyline over Oklahoma at 4 pm et on Saturday. The Jayhawks have lost two of their last three games and are coming off a complete no-show on the road against Texas Tech on Monday. Oklahoma checks in off a blowout loss as well, suffering a 17-point defeat at Baylor on Tuesday. I believe Kansas is better-suited to bounce back on Saturday as it expects to have Kevin McCullar Jr. back in the lineup to give it a much-needed offensive boost. Note that the Sooners have been as bad as any team in the nation offensively over the last two games, connecting on an identical 21 field goals while getting off just 46 and 45 field goal attempts, respectively. In fact, they've been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in six of their last eight contests. The Jayhawks have struggled offensively in recent games but are just three games removed from a stretch that saw them knock down more than 30 field goals in six out of 10 games. Defensively, Kansas has held three straight opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. Texas Tech simply shot the lights out against it on Monday. Oklahoma has seen two of its last three foes get off at least 62 field goal attempts. Note that Kansas is 26-3 in its last 29 games off a double-digit loss in-conference and 54-13 in its last 67 games as a favorite. Oklahoma is 15-26 in its last 41 games as an underdog and 19-32 in its last 51 games in-conference. Take Kansas (8*). |
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02-17-24 | BYU v. Oklahoma State UNDER 151.5 | 83-93 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Oklahoma State at 2 pm et on Saturday. BYU left it all on the floor in a 90-88 home win over UCF on Tuesday while Oklahoma State has been idle since last Saturday's narrow 66-62 loss on the road against in-state rival Oklahoma. The Cougars have now been held to just 23, 27 and 21 made field goals over their last three games. I don't think we'll see the Cowboys get walked all over here, noting they do rank a respectable 86th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, not to mention 194th in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren't likely to get dragged into a track meet either. They've connected on 22 or fewer field goals in eight of their last nine contests. Last Saturday's game marked the first time in 13 contests they hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 11-7 in BYU's last 18 games following a home win in which it scored 85 or more points and 26-20 in its last 46 contests after suffering three straight ATS defeats, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-18 in Oklahoma State's last 41 games as an underdog and 35-28 in its last 63 games after winning three straight contests ATS. Take the under (8*). |
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02-17-24 | Florida Gulf Coast v. Stetson OVER 142.5 | 60-61 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Florida-Gulf Coast and Stetson at 2 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are hovering around the 300-mark in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) with Florida-Gulf Coast just north of that level and Stetson considerably south of it. While neither team has played at all that quick of a pace - certainly nothing compared to what we saw from them in recent years - we have seen signs of them picking it up lately. FGCU has hoisted up 57 or more field goal attempts in four straight and eight of its last nine games, reaching at least 60 four times over that stretch. Stetson doesn't figure to do much to slow the Eagles as it has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Stetson has 60 or more field goal attempts in four straight games, connecting on 29 or more of those shots in four of its last five contests. FGCU has continued to slow its opponents' tempo but has still allowed 25 or more made field goals in seven of its last 10 games. Note that the 'over' is 15-10 in the Eagles last 25 games as a road underdog including a 6-4 mark this season. The 'over 'is also 17-13 in their last 30 games following a double-digit win over a conference foe. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 17-5 in the Hatters last 22 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 1-0 record in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 10-2 in their last 12 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent. Take the over (8*). |
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02-16-24 | Yale v. Pennsylvania OVER 137.5 | Top | 76-62 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Yale and Pennsylvania at 7 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met on Yale's campus on February 3rd with the Bulldogs prevailing by a 74-58 score in a game that stayed 'under' the total. I'm anticipating a considerably higher-scoring affair in Friday's rematch in Pennsylvania. Note that Penn connected on just 20 field goals in that previous matchup. The Quakers have proven to be a much better offensive team at home this season where they average 29 made field goals per contest. Yale has been fairly solid defensively but does check in having allowed 23 or more made field goals in six of its last eight games to at least leave the door cracked for the Penn offense, which is objectively better than its defense this season (the Quakers rank 154th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 264th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom). Note that Penn has connected on more than 20 field goals in 19 of 22 games this season so I'm willing to chalk up that ugly performance against Yale as an outlier. Defensively, the Quakers have allowed 10 of their last 12 opponents to knock down at least 26 field goals with half of those foes making good on at least 29. Yale enters this game on a serious tear offensively having connected on 33, 31, 34, 31, 27, 25, 28 and 28 field goals over its last eight contests. Note that the 'over' is 5-2 in the Bulldogs last seven games following three straight home wins and 12-7 in their last 19 contests played on five or six days' rest, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 40-29 in Penn's last 69 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored less than 60 points and 22-19 in its last 41 contests off an ATS win but SU loss. Take the over (10*). |
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02-15-24 | Gonzaga v. Loyola Marymount +13 | 91-74 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Loyola Marymount plus the points over Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Thursday. These two teams just met on January 30th with Gonzaga rolling to a 92-58 victory on its home floor. While I'm not convinced Loyola Marymount can gain a true ounce of revenge with an outright win on Thursday, I do look for the Lions to stay inside the lofty pointspread. The key here is Loyola Marymount's ability to effectively shorten proceedings on its home floor. The Lions have held eight of their last 12 opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. They did give up 63 field goal attempts against Pepperdine last time out but haven't yielded 60 or more in consecutive games at any time over their last 12 contests. Note that eight of Loyola Marymount's last 10 opponents have made good on 28 or fewer field goals. Gonzaga is in a fairly obvious letdown spot following Saturday's upset win at Kentucky. In stark contrast to the Lions, the Bulldogs have allowed more than 60 field goal attempts in nine of their last 13 games. They have held up reasonably well defensively but will have their hands full against a Lions squad that averages 27 made field goals per game at home this season. Note that Gonzaga is a long-term 36-40 ATS in its last 76 games as a road favorite of 12.5 or more points. The Bulldogs are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 contests following a win by six points or less and 0-3 ATS this season when coming off consecutive ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Lions are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog and 39-31 in their last 70 contests following an upset loss. That's not to mention the fact that they're 23-16 ATS in their last 39 games after suffering an ATS defeat. Take Loyola Marymount (8*). |
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02-14-24 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame UNDER 133 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Notre Dame at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Notre Dame is coming off a stunning 74-66 upset win over Virginia Tech on Saturday marking the first time it scored more than 61 points since a 75-68 victory at Georgia Tech on January 9th. I'm not convinced the Irish will enjoy similar offensive success here, noting they still rank 336th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) and just inside the top-300 in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency. Prior to Saturday's contest Notre Dame had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in 10 straight games. Georgia Tech is by no means an elite defensive team but despite allowing six of its last 10 opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts it yielded 30 or more made field goals just once over that stretch. On the flip side, the Yellow Jackets have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven straight games. The Irish can play some defensive having limited eight straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. The first meeting between these two teams this season did reach 143 total points but both teams played at a faster pace than expected and shot better than their season average from beyond the arc in that contest. Note that the 'under' is 12-5 in Georgia Tech's last 17 games when seeking revenge for a loss where its opponent scored 75 points or more and 8-1 in its last nine contests following consecutive double-digit losses. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 25-21 in Notre Dame's last 46 home games and 9-3 in its last 12 contests following an upset victory. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-24 | Colorado State v. San Diego State UNDER 140 | 55-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and San Diego State at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I think the fact that these two teams combined to score 150 points in their first meeting this season (on January 30th) is weighing heavily on this total. This is a matchup of two terrific defensive teams, not to mention two relatively slow-paced offenses. You wouldn't know it from the first matchup but I look for a more tightly-contested affair in Tuesday's rematch. Colorado State has seen the 'under' cash in three straight games and is coming off a 66-47 rout of San Jose State on Friday. The Rams are locked-in defensively right now having held each of their last three opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals and 15 of their last 16 opponents to 60 or fewer field goal attempts. While they do rank an impressive 25th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, they also sit 281st in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Colorado State has hoisted up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games entering Tuesday's contest. San Diego State is coming off an overtime loss at Nevada on Friday. The Aztecs rank 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. They check in having held an incredible 17 of their last 19 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited 16 of their last 18 foes to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. While San Diego State does rank inside the top-50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, it is just 231st in adjusted tempo. The Aztecs have knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in nine of their last 10 games. Even in their previous matchup with the Rams they got off an uncharacteristic 60 field goal attempts but still topped out at 27 made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 7-2 in Colorado State's last nine games following three straight wins over conference opponents and 19-13 in its last 32 contests after a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 32-24 in San Diego State's last 56 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 75 points or more and 21-18 in its last 39 games as a home favorite. Take the under (8*). |
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02-12-24 | Kansas +2.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 50-79 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas plus the points over Texas Tech at 9 pm et on Monday. I think the knee-jerk reaction is to fade Kansas here after it was stunned in overtime on the road against in-state rival Kansas State in front of a national audience one week ago tonight. We'll go the other way and back the Jayhawks as they look to snap a three-game road losing streak in Big 12 play. Note that you would have to go back five meetings to find the last time the Red Raiders defeated the Jayhawks and that marks their only victory in the last nine meetings in this series going back to the start of 2020. While Texas Tech did snap a three-game losing streak with a 66-59 win over Central Florida last time out it still failed to cover the spread for a fourth straight game. The Red Raiders continue to play too loose defensively for my liking, allowing five of their last seven opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. Give a team as talented as the Jayhawks enough scoring opportunities and they're going to break through, noting Kansas has connected on more than 30 field goals in four of its last eight contests. The Jayhawks have certainly shown signs of life defensively in recent games, holding eight of their last 10 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals and that includes last Monday's overtime game at Kansas State. Kansas ranks 14th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom and should be able to contend with a Texas Tech squad that sits 273rd in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Note that Kansas is 15-11 ATS in its last 26 games following consecutive ATS losses and 18-13 ATS in its last 31 contests following a home win by three points or less, as is the case here. Texas Tech is 11-19 ATS in its last 30 games after holding its previous opponent to 60 points or less and 15-21 ATS in its last 36 contests as a home favorite of three points or less. Take Kansas (10*). |
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02-12-24 | Wake Forest v. Duke OVER 151.5 | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Duke at 7 pm et on Monday. Last Monday we saw an absolute stinker of an ACC matchup as Virginia throttled Miami in an extremely low-scoring game. I expect a much different story to unfold this week as Wake Forest travels to Cameron Indoor Stadium to challenge Duke. The Demon Deacons have quietly reeled off three straight wins. They're on a tear offensively right now having connected on 28, 35, 29 and 29 field goals over their last four games. Duke has caught a couple of favorable matchups at home against Notre Dame and Boston College over the last week but will have to contend with an up-tempo Wake Forest squad here. Note that the Blue Devils have by no means played lockdown defense, allowing eight of their last 10 opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Wake Forest sits just outside the top-100 in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Defensively, the Demon Deacons can be exposed. They've shown no consistent ability to slow the opposition, allowing three straight opponents to hoist up at least 60 field goal attempts and six in a row to get off at least 57. I mentioned the Deacs are on an offensive tear but so are the Blue Devils. They've knocked down 30 or more field goals in three of their last four games and 26 or more in nine of their last 12 contests. Note that the 'over' is 13-8 in Wake Forest's last 21 games as a road underdog and 23-10 in its last 33 contests following three straight wins over conference opponents. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 15-7 in Duke's last 22 games following consecutive 'under' results and 21-17 in its last 38 contests following a game in which it scored 80 or more points, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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02-11-24 | Bowling Green v. UL - Lafayette OVER 151 | Top | 60-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Louisiana-Lafayette at 3 pm et on Sunday. It's a rare non-conference matchup in February as Bowling Green travels to face Louisiana on Sunday afternoon. The Falcons have quietly reeled off 11 straight 'over' results. While getting out of the MAC for a game may serve as a 'catalyst for change' on most occasions, I'm not convinced that's the case here. Louisiana is coming off consecutive 'under' results but hasn't seen three straight games stay 'under' the total all season. The Ragin' Cajuns don't mind getting out and running and they'll certainly get their opportunity to do so here as the Falcons have allowed four of their last six opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. Worse still, Bowling Green has allowed 11 of its last 14 foes to connect on at least 28 field goals. Louisiana has gotten bogged down at times against slow-paced Sun Belt Conference teams but still checks in having made good on 26 or more field goals in seven of its last 10 contests. Of course we'll need Bowling Green to hold up its end of the bargain offensively to help this total along as well. The Falcons have hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in 12 of their last 16 games. They enter on a tear having knocked down at least 29 field goals in three of their last four contests. Note that the 'over' is 24-11 in Bowling Green's last 35 games following a win. The 'over' is also 21-13 ATS in Louisiana's last 34 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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02-10-24 | Siena v. Manhattan -7 | 68-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Manhattan minus the points over Siena at 7 pm et on Saturday. Manhattan has quietly been playing much better lately, going 4-1-1 ATS over its last six contests. The Jaspers have finally found their rhythm offensively, knocking down 26 or more field goals in six straight games. Siena has benefited from facing some exceptionally slow teams such as Marist and St. Peter's lately and in those contests the Saints defense held up reasonably well. They still check in ranked 304th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). Worse still, Siena checks in 359th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted offensive efficiency. Note that the Saints have been at their absolute worst in that department lately, connecting on 18 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games, topping out at 22 over that stretch (in a game where they hoisted up 61 field goal attempts). Manhattan is not a good defensive team by any means but it has also faced a pretty brutal schedule lately with four of its last five games coming on the road including matchups with Niagara and Fairfield in enemy territory. Note that Siena is juast 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games following a loss by 15 points or more and 18-24 ATS in its last 14 contests following an ATS loss. Meanwhile, Manhattan is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games following three straight losses against conference opponents, as is the case here. The Jaspers are also 24-19 ATS in their last 43 games after consecutive road losses. Take Manhattan (8*). |
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02-10-24 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma UNDER 139.5 | Top | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma at 7 pm et on Saturday. Oklahoma State enters this game off consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold as the Cowboys travel to Stillwater for a showdown with the rival Sooners on Saturday. The Cowboys have been positively dreadful offensively for the most part over the last month or so, connecting on 22 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight games. They'll run into the 16th ranked defense in the country (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency) according to KenPom on Saturday. The Sooners have limited three straight and five of their last seven foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. While Oklahoma's defense has been stout, it hasn't been quite as consistent offensively, making good on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of its last eight contests. While the Oklahoma State defense is not elite by any means, I do think it is better than it has shown lately, most recently getting lit up by Houston in a 'wrong place at the wrong time situation' after the Cougars dropped a tough one on the road against Kansas three days earlier. The Cowboys have held 15 of 23 opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts this season. Note that the 'under' is 6-1 in Oklahoma State's last seven games as a double-digit road underdog and 18-16 in its last 34 games following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has seen the 'under' go 12-9 in its last 22 games as a double-digit home favorite and 14-12 in its last 26 contests following a double-digit home victory, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-10-24 | UCLA +1.5 v. California | Top | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA plus the points over California at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. This is undoubtedly a game the Bruins have had circled on their calendar since a stunning 66-57 home loss against the Bears back on January 6th. UCLA has certainly turned things around since that loss, going 6-2 over its last eight games. It holds the rest advantage here having not played since Wednesday’s win at Stanford. Cal was involved in an overtime barn-burner - a game that it won on Thursday against USC. The Bears continue to give up too many scoring opportunities for my liking, even if aided by overtime last time out. They’ve allowed seven of their last 11 opponents to hoist up at least 62 field goal attempts. While the Bears have knocked down at least 25 field goals themselves in eight straight contests they’ve needed more than 60 field goal attempts to get there in six of those games. UCLA figures to put the clamps on the Cal offense, noting that the Bruins have limited seven straight opponents to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that UCLA is 18-12 ATS in its last 30 road games and a perfect 4-0 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored 60 points or less. Meanwhile, Cal is 10-15 ATS in its last 25 games as a home favorite and 0-6 ATS in its last six contests after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take UCLA (10*). |
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02-08-24 | Rider +5 v. Fairfield | 67-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Rider plus the points over Fairfield at 7 pm et on Thursday. This will be the second meeting between these two teams this season after Fairfield staged a minor upset in an 88-81 win at Rider back on December 3rd. That was an interesting game as the Broncs only managed to connect on 1-of-12 three-point attempts and were outscored 27-18 at the free throw line in the home defeat. Needless to say, this is a game Rider has undoubtedly had circled on its calendar. The Broncs enter this game on the heels of four straight ATS victories but had their three-game winning streak halted in a wild 94-93 loss at Iona last time out. Meanwhile, Fairfield snapped its two-game losing streak with a nine-point win over lowly Manhattan on Sunday but has still dropped the cash in four straight contests. Stags opponents have been 'filling it up' recently, connecting on 26 or more field goals in nine of their last 11 games. This is a team that boosted its defensive numbers thanks to a rather soft schedule earlier in the season, ranking 331rd in the country in strength of schedule according to KenPom. Offensively, Fairfield has been on point, making good on 27 or more field goals in five of its last six games. I do think the Broncs will offer some resistance here. Note that Rider has held three of its last four opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time it allowed an opponent to connect on at least 30 field goals and a whopping 17 games for the last time it gave up more than 30 made field goals (it has happened only twice all season). You only need to go back two games to find the last time the Stags allowed more than 30 and it has happened six times this season. Rider checks in 18-15 ATS in its last 33 games as a road underdog and is an impressive 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. Fairfield is just 12-21 ATS in its last 33 home games and 2-8 ATS in its last 10 contests following a home win over a conference opponent. Take Rider (8*). |
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02-08-24 | Iona -2 v. Niagara | Top | 74-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Iona minus the points over Niagara at 7 pm et on Thursday. This is a rematch of a game played between these two teams back on January 7th in which Niagara staged a 75-73 upset victory as a 9.5-point underdog. Since then, Iona has gone on a tear, winning five of its last six games while playing as well offensively as any team in the MAAC. I look for the Gaels to answer back against the Purple Eagles in this spot. Note that Iona has hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in each of its last seven games, putting a ton of pressure on opposing defenses. The Gaels haven't just been chucking it up though, they've also made good on 29 or more field goals in six of their last seven contests. Here, they draw a mouth-watering matchup against a Niagara team that ranks 320th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom). The Purple Eagles did hold up reasonably well defensively in their last two games but those came against a slow-paced St. Peter's team on the road and a struggling Canisius squad at home. Note that Niagara is just two games removed from allowing a miserable Manhattan team to knock down 32-of-71 field goal attempts here at home. While the Purple Eagles did take the most recent meeting in this series, they haven't won consecutive matchups against the Gaels since 2020. Iona is a long-term 34-27 ATS in its last 61 games when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent. The Gaels are also 21-18 ATS in their last 39 contests following an ATS loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Niagara is 6-8 ATS in its last 14 games following consecutive wins in-conference and 5-7 ATS in its last 12 contests after holding its last two opponents to 65 points or less. Take Iona (10*). |
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02-07-24 | Portland v. Gonzaga -26 | Top | 64-96 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over Portland at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Portland used up everything it had in the tank in Saturday's 93-89 upset win over Pepperdine - its second straight victory. This has still been a trying campaign for the Pilots as they check in 9-15 including 2-11 on the road. They're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Wednesday as Gonzaga comes off a tough 64-62 loss at home against St. Mary's. The Bulldogs were held down by a good Gaels defense in that game but that isn't like to be the case on Wednesday. Portland has allowed seven of its last eight opponents to get off at least 62 field goal attempts with five of those foes knocking down at least 34. In fact, KenPom rates Portland 335th out of 362 Division-I teams in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. Gonzaga has made good on 32 or more field goals in six of its last nine contests and ranks 28th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have been steady if not spectacular defensively, limiting six consecutive opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that Portland is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog of between 24.5 and 30 points and 26-44 ATS in its last 70 contests following a home win over a conference opponent. Gonzaga is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a home loss in-conference and 14-9 ATS in its last 23 contests following an upset loss at home. Take Gonzaga (10*). |
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02-06-24 | DePaul v. St. John's -21.5 | Top | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Year. My selection is on St. John's minus the points over DePaul at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Blue Demons are mired in a miserable season and they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Tuesday as they take on St. John's at UBS Arena. The Red Storm are coming off consecutive losses but those came on the road against Xavier and at home against Connecticut. They draw a smash spot here as the Blue Demons are as bad as they've been in quite some time and enter on the heels of 10 straight losses. DePaul has managed to knock down just 30 field goals over its last two games combined. The Blue Demons check in 289th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. They haven't been much better defensively, allowing seven of their last eight opponents to make good on at least 30 field goals. St. John's figures to punish the DePaul defense here, noting the Red Storm rank 44th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 94th in adjusted tempo. Keep in mind, St. John's has knocked down 32, 33, 37, 37 and 33 field goals in the last five meetings in this series and those came against much tougher Blue Demon squads. DePaul is just 9-14 ATS in its last 23 games as a double-digit underdog and 4-6 in its last 10 contests following a loss by 20 or more points in-conference. Meanwhile, St. John's is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games after losing consecutive games in-conference and a long-term 24-18 ATS when those two losses came by double-digit margins, as is the case here. Take St. John's (10*). |
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02-05-24 | Miami-FL v. Virginia UNDER 132 | Top | 38-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams have been on a bit of a tear (relatively speaking) offensively in recent weeks but I look for Monday's matchup to take on more of a defensive flavor. Miami delivered an 82-74 home win over Virginia Tech on Saturday. While the Hurricanes have connected on 24 or more field goals in eight straight games, they haven't knocked down 30 or more field goals since back on January 6th against Wake Forest. They obviously draw a tough challenge here as Virginia ranks 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Cavaliers have held six straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last seven foes to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, Virginia has made good on more than 27 field goals just once in its last eight contests. Note that the 'under' is 12-6 in Miami's last 18 games as a road underdog and 11-7 in its last 18 games following a home win in-conference. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-6 in Virginia's last 17 games following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a perfect 7-0 in the Cavaliers last seven games following a win by three points or less in-conference. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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02-04-24 | Stanford v. Arizona OVER 162 | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and Arizona at 8 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings between these teams and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday. Stanford took the first matchup of the season in stunning fashion, cruising to a 100-82 home win on New Year's Eve. Arizona remains one of the best offensive teams in the country, ranking sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. They're also just one spot outside the top-10 in adjusted tempo. Stanford has shown no ability to slow the pace of the opposition, allowing 60 or more field goal attempts in seven straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. They did hold Arizona State down in a revenge game two nights ago but now the shoe is on the other foot. Note that Arizona has knocked down 28 or more field goals in 13 of its last 15 games and 18 of 21 contests overall this season. The question is whether Stanford can contribute enough to help this total along. While Arizona is tough defensively, the simple fact that it plays at such a fast pace tends to give the opposition plenty of scoring opportunities. Note that the Wildcats have allowed the opposition to connect on 26 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. The 'over' is 8-6 in Stanford's last 14 games following consecutive 'under' results and 23-17 in its last 40 contests following a win. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-16 in Arizona's last 37 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent and 14-9 in its last 23 contests following a home win by 20 points or more, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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02-03-24 | Oregon v. UCLA +1.5 | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Oregon at 10 pm et on Saturday. Oregon picked up a much-needed victory on the road against USC on Thursday but remains just 2-3 over its last five games entering Saturday's showdown with UCLA. The Ducks got off a whopping 65 field goal attempts in that victory, taking advantage of a Charmin' soft USC defense. The Ducks obviously prefer to push the pace when they can but run into a tough matchup here as the Bruins rank 34th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 343rd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom) and come in playing their best basketball of the season. UCLA has held five straight opponents to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. They've limited 10 of their last 11 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, we have seen some signs of life from the UCLA offense as it has knocked down 25, 22, 25, 20 and 25 field goals over its last five contests, matching its longest streak of 20+ made field goals this season. I realize those numbers aren't eye-popping but when you play at the slow pace UCLA does, they're notable. Oregon checks in having allowed seven of its last eight opponents to connect on 27 or more field goals. Note that despite Thursday's win and cover, Oregon is still just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games as a road favorite. The Ducks are also 12-19 ATS in their last 31 contests following a victory in-conference. UCLA is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite of three points or less and 13-7 ATS in its last 20 contests off a win but non-cover, as is the case here. Take UCLA (8*). |
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02-03-24 | California v. Arizona State OVER 144.5 | Top | 81-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between California and Arizona State at 3 pm et on Saturday. California ran into a buzz saw in Arizona on Thursday, dropping a 91-65 decision. That game still managed to stay 'under' the total - the Bears second straight 'under' result. Meanwhile, Arizona State checks in off a relatively low-scoring home defeat at the hands of Stanford on Thursday. The Sun Devils have struggled to find their shooting legs in recent games but should be afforded plenty of opportunities against a very forgiving Cal defense on Saturday. Note that the Bears have allowed eight of their last 10 opponents to knock down 25 or more field goals. They've also yielded 58 or more field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Cal has at least been consistent offensively, connecting on 25 or more field goals in six straight games entering Saturday's action. The Sun Devils rank an impressive 44th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom but that's largely based on early season returns. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to make good on 25 or more field goals. Note that the pace was there in the first meeting between these two teams this season (both hoisted up 60+ field goal attempts) but we saw just 48 combined made field goals in a game that cruised 'under' the total with 140 points. Note that the 'over' is 14-9 in Cal's last 23 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. The 'over' is also 13-11 in the Bears last 24 contests following a road loss. Arizona State has seen the 'over' go 6-4 in its last 10 games following a home loss in-conference and 7-4 in its last 11 home contests with the total set between 140 and 149.5 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-24 | Kansas State -1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Oklahoma State at 2 pm et on Saturday. Kansas State has fallen on hard times over its last three games and in particular in its last two contests, scoring only 52 and 53 points in losses against Houston and Oklahoma, respectively. I expect the Wildcats to bounce back on Saturday as they draw a manageable matchup at Oklahoma State. Kansas State still boasts a terrific defense. It has held eight of its last nine opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. It should thrive in this matchup, noting that Oklahoma State has knocked down 22 or fewer field goals in six straight games. On the flip side, the Cowboys have sagged defensively, allowing nine of their last 11 opponents to connect on at least 25 field goals. In fact, five of their last eight foes have connected on 30 or more field goals. Note that Kansas State is 16-11 ATS in its last 27 lined road games. The Wildcats are also 5-1 ATS in their last six contests following an upset loss, as is the case here. Oklahoma State is a miserable 12-26 ATS in its last 38 games as an underdog and 10-16 ATS in its last 26 contests when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Take Kansas State (10*). |
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02-02-24 | San Jose State v. Nevada OVER 142 | Top | 60-90 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose State and Nevada at 11 pm et on Friday. San Jose State sits tied for last place in the Mountain West Conference with just one win in eight games this season. Meanwhile, Nevada is 3-4 and staring up at seven other teams in the conference. Needless to say, I don't expect either team to play lock-down defense on Friday night in Reno. Note that San Jose State is on an incredible run of defensive futility as it has allowed five straight opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field with its last four foes knocking down 33, 34, 30 and 30 field goals. Nevada should be in a foul mood after connecting on just 19 field goals in a blowout loss at New Mexico last time out. Note that the Wolf Pack had made good on 35 and 39 field goals in their two previous contests. They've gotten bogged down by the better teams they've faced in conference play but San Jose State certainly doesn't fall into that category. The question is whether the Spartans can produce enough offense to help this total along. I'm confident they can, noting they've actually been reasonably consistent offensively, making good on 24 or more field goals in 11 of their last 12 games. In fact, they rank a respectable 128th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season. San Jose state played quite slow early in the season but has picked up the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in six of its last 12 games. Note that the 'over' is 10-6 in the Spartans last 16 games as a double-digit road underdog and 8-3 in their last 11 contests following consecutive 'under' results. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 12-10 in Nevada's last 22 games following a loss in-conference and a long-term 21-8 in its last 29 contests after scoring 55 points or less in its previous game. Take the over (10*). |
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02-01-24 | Oregon v. USC +2 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on USC plus the points over Oregon at 10:30 pm et on Thursday. This will be the second meeting between these Pac-12 opponents this season after Oregon posted an 82-74 win in Eugene back on December 28th. Note that the Ducks held a major advantage at the free throw line in that contest, getting there 32 times compared to the Trojans' 15. Oregon outscored USC 26-10 from the charity stripe, making up more than the difference in the game. The Trojans enter this contest riding a five-game losing streak. They connected on just 17 field goals in a dismal showing at home against UCLA last time out. Note that the only previous time they were held to fewer than 20 made field goals this season they rebounded with a double-digit win in their next contest (albeit against Brown). I like USC's chances of rebounding offensively here as well, noting that Oregon has allowed 27 or more made field goals in six of its last seven games. The Ducks have been ultra-consistent offensively but they're in uncharted territory right now having scored 70+ points in a season-high seven straight games. Oregon has won consecutive meetings in this series but hasn't delivered three straight victories over USC since owning the series from 2010-17. Note that Oregon is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games as a road favorite including an 0-1 ATS mark this season. USC checks in 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite and 12-7 in its last 19 contests when the line is set between +3 and -3. Take USC (10*). |
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Sean Murphy NCAA-B Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
04-06-24 | NC State v. Purdue -9 | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
03-31-24 | Tennessee v. Purdue -3.5 | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
03-30-24 | Clemson +3 v. Alabama | Top | 82-89 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
03-29-24 | NC State v. Marquette -6.5 | 67-58 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 51 m | Show | |
03-28-24 | San Diego State v. Connecticut -10.5 | Top | 52-82 | Win | 100 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
03-24-24 | Grand Canyon +6 v. Alabama | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
03-24-24 | James Madison v. Duke UNDER 148.5 | 55-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
03-23-24 | Oregon v. Creighton UNDER 146 | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
03-23-24 | Washington State v. Iowa State -6 | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
03-23-24 | Gonzaga v. Kansas UNDER 151.5 | 89-68 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
03-22-24 | Grand Canyon +5.5 v. St. Mary's | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show | |
03-22-24 | Yale +13 v. Auburn | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
03-22-24 | UAB +7 v. San Diego State | Top | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
03-21-24 | Drake v. Washington State OVER 138 | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
03-21-24 | Colorado State +2.5 v. Texas | 44-56 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
03-21-24 | Nevada v. Dayton OVER 136.5 | 60-63 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
03-21-24 | Oregon v. South Carolina UNDER 133.5 | 87-73 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
03-21-24 | Akron v. Creighton UNDER 141.5 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
03-21-24 | Duquesne +10.5 v. BYU | 71-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
03-20-24 | VCU v. Villanova UNDER 131 | Top | 70-61 | Push | 0 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
03-19-24 | Cal-Irvine +7.5 v. Utah | Top | 75-84 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
03-19-24 | Wagner v. Howard UNDER 128.5 | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
03-17-24 | Duquesne +2 v. VCU | Top | 57-51 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
03-16-24 | NC State v. North Carolina -9 | Top | 84-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
03-16-24 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -8 | 66-73 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
03-15-24 | NC State v. Virginia -3.5 | 73-65 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
03-15-24 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern UNDER 137.5 | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
03-14-24 | TCU v. Houston -10 | 45-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
03-14-24 | Fresno State v. Utah State -11.5 | 75-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
03-14-24 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -155 | 56-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
03-14-24 | Xavier v. Connecticut UNDER 150 | 60-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
03-13-24 | Air Force v. New Mexico -14.5 | 56-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
03-13-24 | UCF +6 v. BYU | 73-87 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
03-12-24 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's UNDER 139.5 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
03-12-24 | New Hampshire v. Vermont -13.5 | Top | 59-66 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
03-11-24 | Santa Clara v. St. Mary's -9.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
03-11-24 | Montana State v. Weber State -6 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
03-10-24 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -4.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
03-09-24 | Georgia Tech +8.5 v. Virginia | Top | 57-72 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
03-09-24 | North Carolina v. Duke -5.5 | 84-79 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
03-09-24 | Kansas v. Houston -8 | 46-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
03-08-24 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts UNDER 153.5 | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
03-08-24 | Western Illinois v. Arkansas-Little Rock -5.5 | Top | 57-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
03-07-24 | Niagara -7 v. Siena | Top | 66-59 | Push | 0 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
03-06-24 | Boston College v. Miami-FL OVER 151.5 | Top | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
03-05-24 | San Diego State v. UNLV UNDER 136 | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
03-04-24 | Texas v. Baylor -6.5 | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
03-03-24 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Niagara -3 | 91-72 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
03-02-24 | NC State v. North Carolina OVER 153.5 | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
03-02-24 | Wyoming v. Colorado State -15 | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
03-02-24 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 145.5 | 74-82 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
03-01-24 | Fresno State v. Nevada UNDER 137.5 | Top | 66-74 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
03-01-24 | Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -7 | Top | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
02-29-24 | Gonzaga v. San Francisco UNDER 155.5 | 86-68 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
02-28-24 | Virginia +1.5 v. Boston College | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
02-28-24 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State -10 | 45-58 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
02-27-24 | Nevada v. Colorado State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
02-26-24 | Coppin State v. Howard UNDER 138.5 | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
02-26-24 | Miami-FL +14 v. North Carolina | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
02-25-24 | Quinnipiac v. Rider UNDER 153 | 78-88 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
02-24-24 | Colorado State v. UNLV -1 | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
02-24-24 | Grambling State v. Southern UNDER 133 | Top | 63-57 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
02-24-24 | Duke v. Wake Forest -2.5 | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
02-23-24 | Fairfield v. Quinnipiac -2 | 85-81 | Loss | -114 | 25 h 5 m | Show | |
02-22-24 | Washington State v. Arizona UNDER 151 | Top | 77-74 | Push | 0 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
02-21-24 | UNLV v. Air Force UNDER 133.5 | 72-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
02-21-24 | UNLV -5.5 v. Air Force | Top | 72-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
02-21-24 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 71-83 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
02-21-24 | Duke v. Miami-FL +5.5 | 84-55 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
02-21-24 | St. John's -10 v. Georgetown | Top | 90-85 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
02-20-24 | Baylor v. BYU -3 | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
02-20-24 | Bowling Green +1.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 60-62 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
02-19-24 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -3.5 | Top | 41-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
02-18-24 | Canisius v. Siena OVER 137.5 | Top | 73-64 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
02-17-24 | Pacific v. Gonzaga UNDER 152.5 | Top | 76-102 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
02-17-24 | Kansas -125 v. Oklahoma | 67-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
02-17-24 | BYU v. Oklahoma State UNDER 151.5 | 83-93 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
02-17-24 | Florida Gulf Coast v. Stetson OVER 142.5 | 60-61 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
02-16-24 | Yale v. Pennsylvania OVER 137.5 | Top | 76-62 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
02-15-24 | Gonzaga v. Loyola Marymount +13 | 91-74 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 40 m | Show | |
02-14-24 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame UNDER 133 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
02-13-24 | Colorado State v. San Diego State UNDER 140 | 55-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
02-12-24 | Kansas +2.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 50-79 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
02-12-24 | Wake Forest v. Duke OVER 151.5 | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
02-11-24 | Bowling Green v. UL - Lafayette OVER 151 | Top | 60-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
02-10-24 | Siena v. Manhattan -7 | 68-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 60 m | Show | |
02-10-24 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma UNDER 139.5 | Top | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
02-10-24 | UCLA +1.5 v. California | Top | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
02-08-24 | Rider +5 v. Fairfield | 67-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
02-08-24 | Iona -2 v. Niagara | Top | 74-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
02-07-24 | Portland v. Gonzaga -26 | Top | 64-96 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
02-06-24 | DePaul v. St. John's -21.5 | Top | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
02-05-24 | Miami-FL v. Virginia UNDER 132 | Top | 38-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
02-04-24 | Stanford v. Arizona OVER 162 | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
02-03-24 | Oregon v. UCLA +1.5 | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
02-03-24 | California v. Arizona State OVER 144.5 | Top | 81-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
02-03-24 | Kansas State -1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
02-02-24 | San Jose State v. Nevada OVER 142 | Top | 60-90 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
02-01-24 | Oregon v. USC +2 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 1 m | Show |