Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-26-21 | Nets -5.5 v. Pistons | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We've made a habit of fading the Nets over the last week or so, cashing tickets against them with the underdog Magic last Friday night and the favored Jazz in what turned out to be a monster blowout on Wednesday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the Nets as they stay on the road to face the Pistons in Detroit on Friday. Brooklyn obviously has injury concerns but I would expect it to have James Harden back on the floor for Friday's game. According to head coach Steve Nash it sounded like Harden could have played on Wednesday in Utah but the team essentially treated that as a throw-away game on the second of back-to-back nights off a win in Portland on Tuesday. The Pistons check in off an ATS win in Indiana on Wednesday but that sets them up poorly here, noting they've gone 17-31 ATS off an ATS victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 6.5 points per game in that situation. Having dropped their last meeting with the Nets after staging an upset in their first matchup, I'll point out that they're 26-41 ATS when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.2 points in those contests. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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03-25-21 | Blazers v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have gone ice cold offensively over the course of a four-game losing streak which seemingly came out of nowhere. If Miami is going to snap its skid on Thursday night, I believe it will have to lean on its defense, which has the potential to be one of the best units in the league. Note that Miami checks in having allowed just 106.8 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 217.5 points. The Heat have been a positive momentum play from a defensive standpoint, having allowed just 104.3 points per game after consecutive 'under' results, with those contests totaling an average of just 213.6 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers have given up 109.9 points per game after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons. That's not an impressive number on the face of it, but when you consider they give up an average of 115.5 points per game overall this season, it's worth noting. The 'under' has gone 19-7 in that situation over the last three seasons. It seems that outside of a 50-point outburst against New Orleans last week, Damian Lillard has been a little off his game since C.J. McCollum returned to the Blazers lineup. Expect some carry-over in the face of a tough defensive challenge against what should be a desperate Heat squad tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-21 | NC State v. Colorado State UNDER 146 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and Colorado State at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams put up 75 points in their NIT openers but I expect them to have a tough time approaching that number as they match up in this quarter-final game on Thursday night. Note that N.C. State ranks just 225th in the nation in possessions per game while Colorado State checks in 205th. I do think the Wolfpack will be able to run their offense in this one as the Rams rank 258th in steals per possession and 232nd in block percentage. However, Colorado does rank an impressive 64th in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage, not to mention 25th in opponents floor percentage. The Rams offense will be taking a step up in class against N.C. State here, noting that the Wolfpack rank 11th in the country in steals per possession and 34th in block percentage. I do think Colorado State will have a tough time getting comfortable at the offensive end of the floor. Keep in mind, this is a Rams squad that shoots below 44% from the field away from home this season. Also alarming for Colorado State is the fact that it ranks 251st in the nation in extra scoring chances per game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-23-21 | Nuggets v. Magic OVER 216 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Nuggets and Magic square off in Orlando. Denver still managed to shoot 50% from the field in Sunday's home loss to the Pelicans - its third straight game shooting 50% or better. Of course, that's nothing out of the ordinary as the Nuggets have shot 50% or better from the field in seven of their last 10 games overall. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 when the Nuggets come off a home loss this season, with those games averaging 226.6 total points. We've also seen an average total of 223.6 points scored when the Nuggets come off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. Orlando got bogged down in a matinee affair in Boston on Sunday, scoring just 96 points in a blowout loss. Keep in mind, in their most recent home game, the Magic scored 121 points in an upset win over the Nets (we won with Orlando in that contest). The Magic have been getting healthier and generally playing better basketball lately and should be able to take advantage of a Denver squad that ranks bottom-five in the league in both opponents' floor percentage and opponents effective field goal percentage over its last three games. Take the over (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 230 | Top | 113-140 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Monday. There's a good chance that Giannis Antetokounmpo will be forced to miss Monday's game due to a nagging injury but that has only resulted in a slight shift in the total. After the first meeting between these teams sailed 'over' the total earlier this season, I believe the number will prove too high on Monday night. Note that the 'under' is 28-15 when the Pacers come off consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.6 points on average. The Pacers average just 107.8 points per game after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games this season, as is the case here. That scoring average is well below their season average of 113.1 points per game. Likewise, with Indiana coming off of three straight games that reached 215 or more points this season, its next game has averaged just 220.7 total points, well south of the total we're dealing with tonight. The Bucks check in allowing just 103 points per game against division opponents over the last two seasons. After allowing 113 points in a win over a road-weary Spurs team that was playing the second of back-to-back nights on Saturday, and likely without Giannis in the lineup, I look for the Bucks to clamp down defensively in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
CBB Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Florida State at 7:45 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in second round action on Monday night. The Buffaloes exploded for 96 points in a rout of Georgetown on Saturday but I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. Monday's opponent, Florida State, entered the tournament ranked 12th in the nation in block percentage and 32nd in opponents effective field goal percentage this season. For its part, Colorado entered the tournament ranked a very respectable 41st in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 30th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. The Buffaloes 96-point outburst in the opening round was unlikely considering they rank north of 300th in the country in possessions per game. I expect a much different type of game to unfold against the Seminoles on Monday. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 when Colorado comes off a game where 155 or more points were scored over the last two seasons with those contests totaling just 126.6 points on average. The 'under' is also 24-8 when Colorado plays after winning four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 132.3 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Abilene Christian +5 v. UCLA | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
CBB East Region Game of the Year. My selection is on Abilene Christian plus the points over UCLA at 5:15 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with Abilene Christian as it continue on a Cinderella run here in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats shot a miserable sub-30% from the field in their opener against Texas but still managed to stage the upset thanks to an incredible defensive effort. That shouldn't have come as a big surprise as Abilene Christian has terrific at that end of the floor all season, entering the tournament ranked sixth in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 13th in opponents effective field goal percentage. That's not to mention the fact that the Wildcats are capable of ratcheting up the pressure, ranking third in the country in steals per possession. I'm not overly concerned by their awful shooting performance against Texas. Keep in mind, ACU entered the tourney ranked a respectable 67th in offensive efficiency and 55th in floor percentage, not to mention sixth in the country in extra scoring chances per game. I feel their up-tempo style could give UCLA some problems here, noting that ACU ranks 97th in possessions per game compared to the Bruins', who entered the tourney 288th. UCLA rode the hot hand of Johnny Juzang in its 'upset' win over BYU in the opening round. Juzang had been dealing with injuries and I do question what happens if he doesn't shoot the lights out again here. While ACU has had some issues taking care of the basketball this season, UCLA is unlikely to take advantage, ranking 299th in the country in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage entering this tourney. The Bruins have really been nothing special defensively either, ranking 156th in opponents floor percentage and 201st in opponents effective field goal percentage. Finally, I'll point to the fact that UCLA has gone just 3-11 ATS away from home after winning two of its last three games over the last three seasons, outscored by a whopping 11 points per game in that situation. Take Abilene Christian (10*). |
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03-21-21 | Oregon State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Oklahoma State at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. Oklahoma State held on for the cover against Liberty in its NCAA Tournament opener on Friday but I expect the Cowboys will be in for a tough challenge against red hot Oregon State on Sunday. The Beavers got hot at exactly the right time, improbably winning the Pac-12 Tournament last week before dominating a good Tennessee team in their opening round matchup on Friday. I like the matchup here as well. Oklahoma State has outscored the opposition by just 1.8 points per game after winning four of its last five games this season. In 14 situations where it has won five or six of its last seven games this season it has outscored opponents by just 0.5 points per game. While Oregon State is considered an upstart, it has actually posted a winning record away from home this season, allowing just 66.7 points per game. Albeit against a tougher schedule, Oklahoma State has allowed 72.9 ppg away from home this season. Note that entering this tournament, the Cowboys ranked just 135th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 79th in floor percentage while also ranking 270th in extra scoring chances per game. By contrast, Oregon State entered the tourney ranked 88th in extra scoring chances per game. Take Oregon State (10*). |
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03-21-21 | Bulls -3 v. Pistons | Top | 100-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. This is a fine bounce-back spot for the Nuggets after suffering consecutive losses against the Spurs and Nuggets. Both of those losses could have gone either way and there's certainly no reason for Chicago to hang its head following a four-point setback in Denver. Somewhat surprisingly, the Bulls are actually a better team on the road than at home this season, posting a 9-8 record and outscoring the opposition by 2.6 points per game. Note that Chicago is a stellar 14-2 ATS on the road after posting three wins in its last four games ATS over the last three seasons. As we've noted before, the Pistons are not a good revenge team, having gone 25-40 ATS revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points in that situation. They're also a miserable 3-13 ATS after posting consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here, outscored by 9.3 ppg in that spot. It's certainly worth mentioning that Detroit's last two wins came against a reeling Raptors squad and a dreadful Houston team. Take Chicago (10*). |
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03-20-21 | UCLA v. BYU OVER 138.5 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
CBB First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and BYU at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in UCLA's overtime victory over Michigan State in Thursday's First Four matchup and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Saturday as the Bruins take on the Cougars of BYU. As I noted in Thursday's analysis, Bruins head coach Mick Cronin noted during the Pac-12 Tournament that his team had 'hit a wall' both mentally and physically. I mentioned that I felt the week off following their exit from the Pac-12 Tournament might serve them well and that's precisely what appeared to be the case on Thursday as the Bruins played loose and scored 86 points (77 of those in regulation time), shooting better than 46% from the field and turning the ball over only eight times. I like the way this sets up as another relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday. Note that UCLA checks in 38th in the nation in offensive efficiency and an even better 27th in floor percentage. For its part, BYU also ranks highly at the offensive end of the floor, sitting 42nd in offensive efficiency and 59th in floor percentage. While the Cougars also check in as a solid defensive team, it's certainly worth noting that they didn't face many elite offenses outside of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. In two matchups against Gonzaga, BYU gave up 82 and 88 points. While UCLA is by no means on the same level as Gonzaga, the point is still worth making as a now-healthy Bruins squad is certainly capable of giving the Cougars some heartburn defensively. I like the fact that neither team causes a great deal of chaos at the defensive end of the floor. UCLA ranks a miserable 299th in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage. For its part, BYU ranks 329th and 220th in those two categories, respectively. While the Bruins don't prefer a fast pace, ranking 288th in possessions per game, they do make up for it by ranking 61st in extra scoring chances per game. This may not turn out to be a track meet, but it doesn't have to be with the total sitting in the 130's. Take the over (10*). |
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03-20-21 | Spurs v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 113-120 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over San Antonio at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Spurs guaranteed themselves a winning road trip with last night's 116-110 win in Cleveland. I can certainly see a scenario unfolding where they have a tough time keeping within arm's reach against a much better rested Bucks squad here on Saturday. For San Antonio, this will be its fifth game in the last seven nights (in five different cities). In fact, it will be the Spurs seventh game in seven different cities since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Bucks are home off two days' rest and this will mark just their fourth game in the last eight days and only their fifth since the All-Star break (in only three different cities). Note that Milwaukee has gone 28-15 ATS returning home following an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 14.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been outscored by 7.2 points per game on average as a road underdog over the last three seasons, and this is by no means a favorable situation (for the reasons noted above). Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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03-20-21 | Texas Southern v. Michigan -25 | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Texas Southern at 3 pm et on Saturday. I expect to see Michigan lay waste to Texas Southern on Saturday afternoon. Of course, credit the Tigers for advancing past Mount St. Mary's in come-from-behind fashion in their First Four matchup on Thursday, but they're likely to get drummed in this one. Note that Texas Southern ranks just 209th in the nation in offensive efficiency and a miserable 277th in turnovers per possession. While we didn't see it on Thursday, the Tigers generally look to push the pace but that will likely backfire against the Wolverines here. Michigan of course has a sour taste in its mouth after failing to reach the final in the Big Ten Tournament last weekend. The Wolverines check into this game ranked 17th in offensive efficiency, 21st in floor percentage, 24th in total rebounding percentage, eighth in opponents effective field goal percentage and third in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage - you get the picture. Texas Southern regularly got torched during its non-conference schedule, allowing 80+ points against Oklahoma State, St. Mary's-CA, Auburn and BYU. Here, unless the Wolverines completely look past the Tigers, they should be able to approach 90 while I don't see Texas Southern finding an easy path to 60. Take Michigan (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Winthrop +7 v. Villanova | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
CBB First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Winthrop plus the points over Villanova at 9:55 pm et on Friday. While Villanova is just two tournaments removed from a National Championship and head coach Jay Wright is deserving of all the respect he receives for putting together a title contender year in and year out, I believe this is a tough opening round matchup for the Wildcats against a Winthrop squad that 'checks all the boxes' as a potential Cinderella team here in March. We've seen some cracks in Villanova's armor down the stretch while Winthrop has just one blemish on its otherwise flawless resume, albeit against inferior opposition to what the Wildcats face on a game-to-game basis in the Big East. I'm not going to knock the Eagles for playing a lighter schedule though - what they've accomplished is certainly deserving of plenty of respect. Winthrop checks in ranked 7th in the nation in total rebounding percentage compared to Villanova's 116th. I really like the fact that the Eagles will be facing a Wildcats defense that hasn't proven to be all that active at its own end of the floor. Note that 'Nova ranks a miserable 343rd in the country in block percentage and 260th in steals per possession. Contrast that with Winthrop, which checks in 59th in steals per possession, while only slightly better in terms of block percentage at 264th. Defensively, Winthrop has been terrific, ranking 18th in opponents floor percentage, top-100 in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage and a respectable 127th in opponents effective field goal percentage. In order to stay inside the number tonight, taking advantage of any and all extra opportunities will be key and the Eagles check in top-five in the nation in extra scoring chances per game and also succeed at pushing the pace, ranking 48th in possessions per game. By contrast, 'Nova ranks 296th in possessions per game. The knock on the Eagles is their inability to knock down their free throws but we did see some improvement from them in that regard down the stretch, as they shot better than 74% from the free throw line in their last three games while the Wildcats saw some regression, knocking down just 66% of their free throw attempts over their last three contests. Maybe the Eagles freeze in the moment and Villanova's championship pedigree leads it to victory here, but I believe Winthrop has all the tools to at the very least take this one down to the wire. Take Winthrop (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Nets v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Magic haven't won a game since February 21st and are in what appears to be a tough spot here playing the second of back-to-back nights off a tough loss in New York on Thursday. With that being said, I believe they're being given too many points here. The Nets have won six games in a row, including a come-from-behind victory in Indiana (without Kyrie Irving) two nights ago. I do question how easy it will be for the Nets to get up for this one against the slumping Magic, however. The Magic have played hard off a road loss over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 1.9 points per game in that situation, as is the case here. The Nets are outscoring opponents by just 5.2 points per game as a road favorite this season, well south of the spread we're dealing with tonight. Orlando has been getting healthier lately and we've seen signs of progress as it has gone 4-2 ATS over its last six games. I expect the Magic to use last night's close loss as a confidence-builder rather than a reason to be down on themselves here. Take Orlando (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Drake and Wichita State at 6:25 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as more of a grind-it-out, defensive battle than the oddsmakers are accounting for on Thursday. I expect to see both teams run their offenses in this one, with not a lot of fast break and transition points with both sides adept at taking care of the basketball. Note that Drake ranks an impressive ninth in the country in fewest turnovers per possession while Wichita State checks in a very respectable 24th. Drake is also 299th in the country in possessions per game with Wichita State in the middle of the pack in that department, ranking 168th. I'm not expecting either team to stray from their preferred style and really look to speed things up here with a berth in the field of 64 on the line. Drake is expected to have ShanQuan Hemphill back in the lineup for the first time since February but it remains to be seen how much he will contribute in his first game back. Both teams rank top-100 in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage this season, with Wichita State sitting in the top-50. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 when Wichita State follows two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 129.5 points. With the Missouri Valley Conference being quite top-heavy this season, Drake was able to pad its offensive stats against some weak opposition. Meanwhile, Wichita State - a former MVC member - now resides in the American Athletic Conference, which is known for its high-scoring, up-tempo teams. It all adds up to a relatively high posted total for this one, and I believe that number will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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03-17-21 | Heat -1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 85-89 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Memphis at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are fading fast right now, losers of three games in a row, allowing their last two opponents to shoot a combined 89-for-156 (57%) from the field. They're back home tonight and catch the Heat in a back-to-back spot but that's certainly been factored into this line. Keep in mind, Memphis is actually a losing team at home this season where it has been outscored by 3.0 points per game on average. The Heat are an even 10-10 on the road but enter tonight's game riding a six-game winning streak away from home. Having held five straight opponents to 45.3% or worse shooting, I like the way the Heat have locked down on defense lately and I'm confident they can add to the Grizzlies woes on Wednesday night. Take Miami (10*). |
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03-16-21 | Knicks v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks stayed competitive and covered the spread last night in Brooklyn but certainly showed signs of fatigue, shooting just 40% from the field and really only staying in it thanks to the Nets general disinterest in putting the game away. We won with the 76ers in Sunday's rout of the undermanned Spurs and I'm anticipating another convincing victory here on Tuesday. Further to my fatigue comment regarding the Knicks, note that they allowed the Nets to shoot 58% from the field last night. With a number of key cogs currently out of the lineup, I don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot with New York heading home for a four-game homestand after this one. The 76ers continue to play without Joel Embiid but keep rolling along, winners of five games in a row ATS. They're a terrific positive momentum play having gone 14-4 ATS at home after scoring 115 points or more over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.6 points per game in that situation. They've generally been rock solid at home this season, where they outscore opponents by eight points per game, going 14-6 ATS in the process. The Knicks average 105.9 points per game when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 4.4 points. I expect them to have a tough time keeping within arm's reach for four quarters tonight. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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03-15-21 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 225 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Brooklyn at 8:05 pm et on Monday. New York turned in a peak offensive performance in Saturday's 119-97 rout of the Thunder in Oklahoma City with R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle going off for a combined 58 points on 20-of-36 shooting. Here, they'll obviously be facing a much tougher test against a Nets squad that while known for their offense, can play some defense as well. Brooklyn held Detroit to an almost unheard of (by today's NBA standards) 95 points on Saturday - the third time it has held an opponent to fewer than 100 points in its last nine games. Here, the Nets catch the Knicks in a favorable spot, with New York having averaged just 103.1 points per game after being involved in three straight games where at least 215 points were scored over the last three seasons. For whatever reason, the Knicks seem to get stronger defensively the longer they stay on the road. Off two consecutive road games this season, New York is allowing just 100.1 points per game. All Knicks road games have totaled an average of only 206.2 points, with the 'under' cashing at a 14-7 clip. The only previous meeting between these two teams this season totaled 225 points and that's likely why we're seeing a considerable bump in the total here (that first matchup saw a closing total of just 216.5 points). Take the under (10*). |
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03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -151 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Charlotte (moneyline) over Sacramento at 7:05 pm et on Monday. It's time to start taking the Hornets seriously as they've moved over the .500 mark thanks to nine wins in their last 14 games. They barely broke a sweat in Saturday's rout of the undermanned Raptors and now wrap up their three-game homestand against the revenge-minded Kings on Monday night. Rather than lay the points with the Hornets here, I'll back them on the moneyline, only due to their tendency to get involved in extremely tight games. Note that Charlotte has wins by 3, 1, 3 and 2 points since February 20th. Sacramento checks in off a 121-106 loss in Atlanta on Saturday. The Kings have not been a good bounce-back team this season, going 6-16 ATS when coming off a loss, outscored by an average margin of 7.2 points in that situation. That's a coaching problem as far as I'm concerned. Under head coach Luke Walton, the Kings have gone 20-35 ATS off an ATS loss, outscored by an average margin of 5.4 points. I mentioned the Kings will be looking for revenge here, that's because they dropped a 127-126 decision at home against the Hornets on February 28th. Keep in mind, Sacramento has been outscored by 3.3 points per game when on the road revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. The Hornets went 0-3 straight-up the first three times they were favored this season but that was clearly a product of having a lot of new (and young) faces in the lineup. Since then, they've gone 6-1 SU in their last seven games as a favorite. Realizing the importance of keeping their win streak intact before heading out on a tough road trip, expect to see them improve on that mark tonight. Take Charlotte moneyline (10*). |
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03-14-21 | Cavs v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 82-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Cleveland at 7:35 pm et on Sunday. The Hawks avoided a possible 'trap' last night, dominating the Kings in a 121-106 victory. The fact that they're playing on back-to-back nights (and for the third time in four nights) is certainly being factored into the line here. I like the make-up of the Hawks rotation right now with Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic back healthy to contribute off the bench. Cam Reddish remains sidelined but let's face it, he's been a general disappointment in his sophomore season. The Cavs were playing reasonably well prior to the All-Star break but returned with a 34-point loss in New Orleans on Friday. Cleveland remains an awful road team and will face a motivated Hawks squad here after Atlanta dropped a 112-111 decision as eight-point favorites on the road against the Cavs back on February 23rd. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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03-13-21 | Bucks v. Wizards +11 | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Wizards are 0-2 SU and ATS coming out of the All-Star break and most will expect them to get blown out by the mighty Bucks here, who returned from the break with a rout of the Knicks. I’ll go the other way and grab the points with the Wiz as I see this as a very difficult game for Milwaukee to get up for. Note that the Bucks are just 14-27 ATS on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons. Meanwhile the Wiz are 25-9 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games over the last three seasons and have been out scored by just 4.3 points per game off a loss by 20+ points over the same period. Take Washington (10*). |
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03-13-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and San Diego State at 6 pm et on Saturday. This has all the makings of one of Saturday's most entertaining games but that certainly doesn't mean we should expect a track meet. Both teams are capable of playing lock down defense although San Diego State is coming off an uncharacteristically high-scoring affair in last night's 77-70 win over Nevada. I expect a return to 'normal' here on Saturday. Utah State had little trouble getting past a good Colorado State team last night, allowing just 50 points in a double-digit victory. The Aggies check in eighth in the country in defensive rating. For their part, the Aztecs rank 11th in defensive rating. When these two teams met back on January 16th they combined to score 123 points. This feels like it could be a 'first to 60 wins' type of game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. The Pacers went into the All-Star break on a real sour note having lost five of their last six games (0-6 ATS) and will certainly have no trouble getting up for this matchup with Lebron and the Lakers in Los Angeles on Friday night. Note that Indiana has gone a stellar 11-1 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 15.1 points when dropping the cash in six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here. The Lakers also entered the break as a downtrodden squad having lost back-to-back games and six of their last eight games overall. Having lost their most recent game in Sacramento, the Lakers are set up poorly here, having actually been outscored by an average margin of 1.6 points following a road loss over the last three seasons. Take Indiana (10*). |
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03-12-21 | Nevada v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Nevada at 9:30 pm et on Friday. We're able to back the Aztecs at a bit of a discount here thanks to Nevada's upset win over Boise State yesterday combined with San Diego State's narrow escape against Wyoming. Keep in mind, the Aztecs were favored by double-digits in both regular season matchups with Nevada. Both games were close but I look for the Wolf Pack to run out of gas and ultimately for the Aztecs to pull away for a convincing victory tonight. San Diego State is one of the best defensive teams in the country and that's what it takes to win a tough conference tournament like the Mountain West. Note that the Aztecs allow just 59.6 points per game away from home this season. Compare that with Nevada, which gives up north of 72 ppg away from home. San Diego State is a terrific positive momentum play here, noting that it has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.7 points off consecutive wins over the last three seasons. Hammering down further, the Aztecs are 13-5 ATS and outscore opponents by 13.3 points per game when playing away from home following three or more wins in a row over the last two seasons. Nevada hasn't fared particularly well in revenge situations, allowing 79.8 points per game when revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. Take San Diego State (10*). |
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03-12-21 | South Florida +9 v. Wichita State | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Wichita State at 12 noon et on Friday. While it does check in as the one-seed and has already defeated South Florida twice this season, I think Wichita State is going to play a near perfect game to cover this lofty pointspread. I'm just not convinced we'll see that peak level of performance from the Shockers here. I like the fact that South Florida doesn't need to rely on jacking up threes to stay competitive in a game like this with the Bulls ranking in the top-third in the country in percentage of points from two-pointers this season at north of 52%. I also like that the Bulls have a significant advantage on the glass, ranking an impressive 40th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage (they also check in a respectable 110th in defensive rebounding percentage). Wichita State isn't going to overwhelm South Florida with pressure defense either, noting that it ranks 274th in the country in steals per possession. USF shot miserably in both regular season meetings with Wichita State yet still managed to take one of those games down to the wire losing by only five points. Expect another competitive affair today. Take South Florida (10*). |
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03-12-21 | California v. Colorado -13.5 | Top | 58-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado minus the points over California at 11:30 pm et on Thursday. I have no problem laying the points with Colorado here as it looks to avenge a stunning nine-point loss suffered as a nine-point favorite at Cal back on February 13th. Cal staged another upset last night, blowout Stanford out of the water as an 8.5-point underdog. I don't expect history to repeat itself here, however. Note that Cal has been outscored by an average margin of 14.5 points when coming off a win over a conference opponent over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Colorado has outscored opponents by an average margin of 14.1 points as a favorite this season, including a 29-point rout of Cal back on January 14th. The Buffaloes clearly looked past the Bears in their most recent meeting but I don't expect to see them get caught flat-footed again here. Take Colorado (10*). |
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03-11-21 | Suns v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Suns crushed the Blazers by 32 points in Phoenix the last time these two teams met back on February 22nd. This time around, I'm expecting Portland to put up a much tougher fight as it catches the Suns in a favorable situation. Note that Phoenix has inexplicably been outscored by 10.6 points per game on average when playing on the road following a home game over the last three seasons. Further exacerbating things is the fact that the Suns are 0-8 ATS when playing on three or more days' rest over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 10.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Blazers check in 17-6 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.5 points on average. Looking up at Phoenix in the Western Conference standings, look for the Blazers to take a stand at home on Thursday night. Take Portland (10*). |
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03-11-21 | Mississippi State +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Kentucky at 12 noon et on Thursday. This looks like a case of undervalued vs. overvalued as Mississippi State has posted a winning ATS record this season while Kentucky checks in seven games below .500 from an ATS perspective. Yes, the Wildcats have owned this series over the years, but if there was ever a time for the Bulldogs to get a win in this series, this would be it. We actually won with Kentucky in its most recent game - a rout of South Carolina this past Saturday. That came at home. Away from home, the Wildcats have gone 4-9 this season, outscored by right around two points per game. Note that Kentucky has gone 0-7 ATS after an ATS win this season, outscored by an average margin of 8.1 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Mississippi State checks in 9-1 ATS coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive margin of 12.8 points on average in that situation. Take Mississippi State (10*). |
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03-10-21 | Spurs +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. I don't think the Spurs are getting nearly enough credit for what they accomplished in the face of what seemed like constant adversity in the first half of the season. San Antonio checks into this game sporting an 18-14 overall record, including a stellar 9-4 record away from home. That's despite missing key cogs due to injuries and otherwise throughout. The Spurs have had plenty of success here in Dallas in recent years, taking three of the last four meetings outright and I like them catching the points here as well. Note that San Antonio has thrived in a revenge role in recent years, going an incredible 42-17 ATS when revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.5 points. Meanwhile, Dallas has been as inconsistent as they come from an ATS perspective, and check in 9-20 ATS in 29 home games after posting an ATS win in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just 0.5 points in that situation. San Antonio is expected to have some bodies back for this one and should be fresh after the All-Star break. I expect Gregg Popovich will have his team ready for this one. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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03-10-21 | San Jose State v. Wyoming -11.5 | Top | 80-111 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Wyoming minus the points over San Jose State at 2 pm et on Wednesday. I suspect most bettors may shy away from a middling 13-10 Wyoming squad laying double-digits in the opening round of the Mountain West Tournament on Wednesday afternoon. We won't hesitate to back the Cowboys, however, as they should be able to take their frustrations out on an awful San Jose State squad. The Spartans have just five wins to their credit this season. Two of those victories came against non-Division I opponents. The other three came against 5-19 Air Force (two wins) and 6-15 New Mexico. This will be their first matchup with Wyoming this season with the Cowboys having won 13 of the last 14 matchups. Credit Wyoming for hanging in there against a tough Mountain West schedule this season, winning the games it should and even staging a few upsets along the way (it posted outright underdog wins against Fresno State, Nevada and UNLV). Note that San Jose State was outscored by a whopping 20.4 points per game away from home during the regular season. Wyoming was far more respectable in that regard, outscored by just 3.7 points per game. In an underdog role, San Jose State has been outscored by 17.9 points per game this season. The Spartans have been an excellent negative momentum fade having gone 7-17 ATS, outscored by an average margin of 21.9 points when playing away from home following two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, as is the case here. This is probably the only winnable game for Wyoming in this tournament, and I expect the Cowboys to take full advantage. Take Wyoming (10*). |
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03-09-21 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -8 | Top | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Notre Dame minus the points over Wake Forest at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We cashed a ticket fading Wake Forest in its most recent game - a double-digit home loss against Georgia Tech last Friday night. The Demon Deacons have all but packed up the tent for the 2020-21 season, losers of six straight games both SU and ATS. Note that Wake Forest has won just once in 10 tries away from its home court this season, outscored by an average margin of 12.3 points. This is a revenge spot after Notre Dame took the regular season meeting by 21 points but Wake hasn't been anything special in that situation, outscored by an average margin of 6.6 points when revenging a loss over the last two seasons. The Irish managed to pull up their socks and bring an end to their four-game losing streak with a very impressive 10-point victory over a quality Florida State squad on Saturday. That was the type of victory that should produce a positive carry-over effect here. While the Irish went 4-9 on the road during the regular season, they were actually outscored by an average margin of only 2.2 points, winning the majority of the games they should (some in blowout fashion) while losing those where they stepped up in class. This game certainly qualifies as the former and I'm confident we'll see the Irish prevail by a convincing margin. Take Notre Dame (10*). |
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03-08-21 | Northern Kentucky -1 v. Oakland | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
CBB Horizon League Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Kentucky minus the points over Oakland at 9:30 pm et on Monday. Given the discrepancy between these two teams overall records, with North Kentucky owning a considerable edge in that regard, it may be a little odd to see the Norse priced near a pk'em in this matchup. I can understand the logic behind it, however, with this game being played on a neutral court and Northern Kentucky having posted a losing record away from home, not to mention the fact that Oakland has been scoring at will lately, putting up 80+ points in five straight and seven of its last nine games overall. With that being said, I like the way this Horizon League Tournament semi-final matchup sets up for the Norse. NKU has outscored opponents by 5.3 points per game on average after winning two of its last three games over the last two seasons. The Norse have also fared well as a positive momentum play coming off a win by six points or less in their last game, outscoring the opposition by 6.7 points on average in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Oakland has been outscored by nearly 10 points per game in an underdog role this season. When coming off an ATS win, the Grizzlies have been outscored by an average margin of 8.4 points in their next contest. While this has been a series that has featured plenty of close games, Northern Kentucky has managed to win four of the last five meetings over the last three seasons. Take Northern Kentucky (10*). |
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03-08-21 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -17.5 | Top | 55-78 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
WCC Game of the Month. My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over St. Mary's at 9 pm et on Monday. This number may seem fairly high based on the heated rivalry these two teams have been a part of over the years but that rivalry has cooled recently with Gonzaga evolving into an elite National Championship contender and St. Mary's taking a step back. Gonzaga swept the regular season series between these two teams with relative ease, but did only manage to go 1-1 ATS, helping to keep the number in check here. Note that the Zags actually enter this game off back-to-back ATS losses. That's not really a bad thing as the Bulldogs have averaged 90.9 points per game while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 23.3 points when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons. They've also been a solid positive momentum play, averaging 90.4 points per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 21.4 points after scoring 85+ points in two straight games over the last two seasons. St. Mary's is a long-term loser in an underdog role, going 91-124 ATS and has been outscored by 15.6 points on average when revenging two straight double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Gonzaga (10*). |
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03-07-21 | Drake v. Loyola-Chicago -7.5 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago minus the points over Drake at 2 pm et on Sunday. I think the fact that Drake scored 71 points in yesterday's thrilling victory over Missouri State, not to mention the fact that it beat Loyola-Chicago 51-50 the last time these two teams met last month is giving Bulldogs backers a big of a false sense of security catching a seemingly generous helping of points in this one. Keep in mind, prior to that one-point win over the Ramblers the Bulldogs had been routed by 27 points against Loyola-Chicago the previous day. A letdown was certainly in order for Loyola as it may have taken a second win for granted against the Bulldogs. Drake isn't the same team it was earlier in the season, not without two of its best players in Roman Penn and ShanQuan Hemphill. Of course those two absences have been factored into this line but worth noting nonetheless. While Drake certainly needs this win a little more to reach the NCAA Tournament, desperation doesn't always lead to victory. Loyola-Chicago has been locked in for weeks, months even as it has its sights set on a MVC Championship and potentially a deep NCAA Tournament run. Note that the Ramblers are an excellent positive momentum play here, having gone 7-1 ATS after an ATS win as a double-digit favorite this season, outscoring the opposition by a wide 17.9-point margin on average. They've got an excellent track record as a favorite this season, going 15-7 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.9 points in those games. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
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03-06-21 | Butler v. Creighton -12.5 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Butler at 5 pm et on Saturday. We won by fading Creighton in its most recent game but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Blue Jays as they return home for their regular season finale against Butler. The Blue Jays will have revenge on their minds after suffering a narrow loss on the road against Butler earlier this season. It's not as if Creighton needs any extra motivation here after it played worse than the final score indicated in Wednesday's loss at Villanova. That brought an end to a winless two-game road trip for the Blue Jays after they had fallen against Xavier as well. Home cooking should serve them well as they've gone 10-3 in the host role, outscoring the opposition by more than 14 points per game. Note that they're 12-3 ATS when returning home off a game as a road underdog over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of just under 18 points in that situation. Butler checks in a woeful 1-9 on the road this season where it has been outscored by around nine points per game. Take Creighton (10*). |
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03-06-21 | Illinois v. Ohio State -2 | Top | 73-68 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
CBB TV Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Illinois at 4 pm et on Saturday. It's easy to make the case for Illinois as the better team in this matchup, especially when you consider current form. The Illini are coming off three straight wins, including back-to-back of the outright underdog variety on the road against Wisconsin and Michigan. The win at Michigan was as dominant as they come as the Illini jumped out to a big early lead and never looked back in a 23-point rout, and it came in front of a national audience. Ohio State checks in down-trodden off three straight losses but two of those could have gone either way and all three came against tough opponents in Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa. Here, the Buckeyes have an opportunity to regain their footing with a win over an elite opponent on their home floor to wrap up the regular season and I look for them to do just that. Note that Ohio State is still 10-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by more than 10 points per game. They already have a feather in their cap in this particular matchup, having defeated Illinois by six points on the road back in mid-January. Interestingly, Illinois has gone 0-6 ATS when revenging an upset loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 9.5 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 18-9 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by a wide margin of 15.3 points on average. Take Ohio State (10*). |
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03-05-21 | Colorado State v. Nevada +1.5 | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Nevada plus the points over Colorado State at 9 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Wolf Pack on Friday night as they look to end Colorado State's five-game winning streak and also halt their own losing skid at two games following consecutive losses at Utah State. Colorado State checks in 17-4 on the season but really what have the Rams done lately? Since the start of February they've gone 5-0 with a number of cancellations thrown in the mix. Those five wins came against 6-15 New Mexico, 5-19 Air Force and 12-10 Wyoming (the two victories over Wyoming came by a combined 11 points as both games could have gone either way). Nevada is coming off three straight two-game sets against the likes of UNLV, Boise State and aforementioned Utah State. The Wolf Pack certainly held their own over that stretch, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS. Here, Nevada looks to improve to 7-0 ATS over the last three seasons after allowing 75 points or more in its last two games. The last six times that situation has come up the Wolf Pack have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 13.7 points. Nevada has taken the last two meetings between these two teams on this floor and I look for it to make it three straight here on Friday night. Take Nevada (10*). |
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03-04-21 | Texas v. Oklahoma -2 | Top | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Texas at 9 pm et on Thursday. Texas gained plenty of early season notoriety by getting off to an incredible 10-1 start, including road wins over Kansas and West Virginia. Since then, however, the Longhorns have gone just 2-2 on the road, with the two victories coming against bad Kansas State and Iowa State teams. Oklahoma also got off to a tremendous start this season, only falling on hard times recently, dropping its last three games. That skid started with an embarrassing loss at Kansas State before suffering consecutive setbacks against rival Oklahoma State. The Sooners certainly realize the importance of getting it right here in their regular season finale and know they're going to get Texas' best punch after upsetting the Longhorns by a single point on the road earlier this season. Keep in mind, Oklahoma is 10-2 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by over 15 points per game. After scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games this season, the Sooners have outscored opponents by an average margin of 12.3 points in their next game. Take Oklahoma (10*). |
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03-04-21 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 234.5 | Top | 112-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Memphis is coming off consecutive offensive explosions away from home, scoring 133 and 125 points in victories over the Rockets and Wizards, respectively. Of course, it will be taking a major step up in class here against one of the league's best defensive teams in the Bucks. Note that Milwaukee will certainly be in a foul mood after suffering a 128-97 loss at home against the Nuggets on Tuesday. That flat spot probably should have been expected given it was coming off consecutive close wins in nationally-televised games against the Pelicans and Clippers. That blowout result sets us up well with the 'under' in this matchup, noting that the Bucks have allowed just 106.6 points per game following an outright loss as a favorite over the last three seasons. Those 50 games totaled an average of just 223.6 points. To take it a step further, Milwaukee has allowed just north of 100 ppg when coming off a double-digit upset loss as a favorite over that same period, with those contests reaching just 216.5 total points on average. With the Grizzlies coming off consecutive road games, their next contest has averaged just north of 215 total points over the last three seasons. Keep in mind, Memphis actually owns a losing record at home compared to a winning mark on the road this season, scoring around three points per game below its season average in the host role. Take the under (10*). |
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03-03-21 | Thunder +8 v. Mavs | Top | 78-87 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
PLEASE NOTE: This line has dropped considerably with the news that Luka Doncic is doubtful for the Mavs. While I did personally play the Thunder at +8 well in advance of the Luka news, OKC still warrants a play at the current number as well. NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs failed to cover the 6.5-7-point spread for us on Monday despite holding a double-digit lead for much of the fourth quarter. Their defensive play continues to be a concern and I expect them to be in for a fight against a scrappy Thunder squad on Wednesday night. Note that Oklahoma City has been a solid road underdog in recent years, going 28-9 ATS in that situation over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 3.1 points. It gets even better when the Thunder are coming off a loss as they've gone 18-8 ATS on the road after suffering at least one loss, actually outscoring the opposition by a point per game on average. Meanwhile, similar situations have been dreadful for the Mavs as they're 3-12 at home off a road win over the last two seasons, stunningly outscored by an average of nearly nine points in that situation. Note that these two teams split a pair of meetings last season, with the Mavs owning the scoring margin edge by a total of five points. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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03-02-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 215.5 | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's quite surprising that the books haven't sent out a higher total for this one, knowing full well bettors will be itching for action and quick to pull the trigger on the 'over' in this high-profile late night matchup on Tuesday. With all of that being said, I can't help but feel this total has been set too low, and believe both offenses are in line for strong performances in this intriguing Western Conference showdown. Note that the Suns will be playing their third road game in the last five days, a situation that has produced an average total of 234 points over the last two seasons. There have been 11 occasions where the Suns have played on the road after winning four of their last five games over the last three seasons, and those contests have reached an average total of over 231 points. Meanwhile, the Lakers have seen their games average just shy of 223 total points when playing at home off a double-digit home win, as is the case here. The 'under' has cashed in the Suns last two games and the Lakers last three and both teams rank well in most defensive categories. That's why we're seeing such a low total (by today's NBA standards) but I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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03-02-21 | Indiana +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Michigan State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The Hoosiers picked a bad time to go ice cold, dropping each of their last three games heading into Tuesday night's showdown in East Lansing. I don't expect them to go away quietly, however, and believe they can win this game outright, but will certainly grab the points of insurance. Michigan State had won three games in a row before dropping an 18-point decision at Maryland last time out. Note that the Spartans went to Indiana and defeated the Hoosiers by seven points back on February 20th, but that was their first win in four tries in this series. I simply feel that Michigan State is being asked to lay too many points here given the cracks it has shown defensively down the stretch, and going up against what will be a highly-motivated Indiana squad. Take Indiana (10*). |
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03-01-21 | Mavs -6.5 v. Magic | Top | 130-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Even in a clear letdown spot off Saturday's nationally-televised win over the Nets, I expect the Mavericks to show up and take care of the reeling Magic on Monday night in Orlando. Note that Dallas is 19-6 ATS as a road favorite over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average of nearly nine points. Meanwhile, the Magic have been awful in the home underdog role, going 6-17 ATS over the last two seasons, losing those games by more than 10 points on average. It's also worth noting that Orlando is 0-11 ATS at home when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, losing those games by nearly 12 points on average. That's notable as the Mavs took the first matchup between these two teams this season by 14 points back on January 9th. Take Dallas (10*). |
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03-01-21 | Miami-FL v. Virginia OVER 124 | Top | 51-62 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Virginia at 6 pm et on Monday. There's no question, Virginia is more known for its defensive prowess than its offensive exploits, but the fact is the Cavaliers enter Monday's game riding a three-game 'over' streak and the 'over' has cashed at a 7-3-1 clip when they play at home this season. Miami has lost five games in a row and should throw everything it has at the Cavaliers in this spot. Note that the Hurricanes haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since back on January 19th and 24th. Since then, the 'over' has gone 5-3 in their last eight games. Also note that the 'over' is 16-6 when Virginia plays at home off an upset loss against a conference opponent, with those games reaching an average total of more than 138 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-27-21 | Louisville v. Duke -5.5 | Top | 80-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Duke minus the points over Louisville at 6 pm et on Saturday. It seems like it's going to take quite an effort to take down the Blue Devils right now as they've won four games in a row both SU and ATS, completely turning their season around following an awful start. Louisville continues to play an uneven brand of basketball, having gone 3-4 SU and ATS over its last seven games. The Cardinals are coming off a double-digit win over Notre Dame last time out, but that was at home. They're just 3-4 on the road, where they've been outscored by more than eight points per game. Note that while Duke is a woeful 7-16 ATS after scoring 80+ points in its last game over the last two seasons, as is the case here, it has still managed to win those games by more than eight points on average. We're dealing with a very reasonable pointspread here. Take Duke (10*). |
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02-26-21 | Clippers -6.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 119-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Friday. This is a spot we've gone back to time and time again as the Clippers look to rebound off an ugly loss against these same Grizzlies last night. Note that Los Angeles is 27-10 ATS when coming off a road loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of around nine points. Better still, the Clips are 19-9 ATS off an outright upset loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by a wide 14.1-point margin on average. Los Angeles needs to right the ship in this game as the road trip will only get tougher with stops in Milwaukee and Boston up next. Memphis was highly-motivated to show up and show out in last night's game off consecutive losses but may not be able to reach that same level of intensity here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-26-21 | Indiana State v. Valparaiso +3 | Top | 58-43 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
CBB False Favorite Game of the Month. My selection is on Valparaiso plus the points over Indiana State at 7 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up for Valpo as it comes in battle-tested off three straight games decided by three points or less. The fact it went 1-2 in those three contests should help keep its motivation level high for this one as it hosts Indiana State. Valpo is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series but dropped a double-digit decision against the Sycamores the last time they matched up last February. Here we find the Crusaders 11-3 when having lost four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of nearly two points in that situation. They're also an incredible 70-36 ATS when coming off a road loss, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.8 points. Indiana State has certainly been rolling along but might have a tough time keeping the positive momentum building here having not played in the last nine days. Take Valparaiso (10*). |
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02-25-21 | Pelicans v. Bucks -9 | Top | 125-129 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over New Orleans at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. We've been high on the Bucks lately, most recently backing them in their 27-point rout of the T'Wolves on Tuesday. You would think that might have been a tough game for them to get up for but they shook off a sluggish start and ultimately pulled away for a blowout win. Here, I don't think they'll have any difficulty getting up for a nationally-televised game against Zion and the Pelicans, especially after dropping a 131-126 decision in New Orleans back in January. Milwaukee has reeled off three straight wins since an extended slide that saw it drop five games in a row. It has been a tremendous momentum play in recent years, going 12-2 ATS at home after posting consecutive wins by 10+ points over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average margin of nearly 19 points. In the role of home favorite over the last three seasons, the Bucks have gone 57-36 ATS, outscoring opponents by 13 points per contest. The Pelicans are coming off consecutive wins and certainly rolling offensively but figure to struggle here on the road, where they've gone 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS this season. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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02-24-21 | Florida State v. Miami-FL +11.5 | Top | 88-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Florida State at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. This game sets up well for Miami against an unsuspecting Florida State squad that's coming off three straight wins and already defeated the Hurricanes by 20+ points earlier this season. Miami hasn't been able to recapture that lightning in a bottle it found in a home win over Duke back on February 1st. The Canes followed up that win with relatively close losses against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame before getting their doors blown off by Georgia Tech last time out. I expect them to bounce back in a sense here, noting that they've gone 16-6 ATS in home games off a conference loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by around two points per game. Miami is also a long-term ATS winner at 29-15 ATS when coming off three straight losses against conference opponents. Meanwhile, Florida State is 35-54 ATS in road games following three straight wins and has been outscored in those games by 0.6 points on average. Take Miami (10*). |
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02-24-21 | Pistons v. Pelicans OVER 222 | Top | 118-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Despite the most recent meeting between these two teams in Detroit less than two weeks ago reaching 235 points (we won with the Pistons in that game) we aren't seeing much of an adjustment to the total here. The Pelicans were flat in Detroit in that recent Sunday night contest yet still managed to score 112 points. Here, I'm expecting a much better offensive performance, but the Pistons should be dragged along for the ride as well. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 the last nine times the Pelicans have followed up an outright underdog win over the last two seasons with those games averaging a whopping 242.8 total points. The 'over' is also an incredible 15-3 when New Orleans plays at home off a win of any sort over the last two seasons with those games reaching an average of 241.8 total points. The Pistons have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last four games, however we saw a similar situation earlier this month where the 'under' had gone 3-1 in their last four games as they went to L.A. to wrap up a road trip and that game totals 264 points. Here, the Pistons will be finishing up a five-game road trip before heading home to host the Kings on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-23-21 | Wolves v. Bucks -10.5 | Top | 112-139 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. After an extended slump, we've seen an unwinding of the Bucks of sorts in recent days as they've delivered blowout wins over the Thunder and Kings. I look for that trend to continue here as they host the T'Wolves on Tuesday night. Minnesota rallied to nearly upset the Knicks on the road on Sunday night but ultimately fell short and now ride a four-game SU and ATS losing streak. It hasn't proven to be a good bounce-back team in recent years, going 7-17 ATS after dropping the cash in five or six of its last seven games over the last two seasons and 20-34 ATS following an ATS loss over the same period. Meanwhile, the Bucks are an excellent positive momentum play having gone 52-33 ATS after winning two of their last three games over the last three seasons. Despite their recent struggles, they're still a terrific 57-37 ATS at home over the last three seasons. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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02-22-21 | Syracuse +5 v. Duke | Top | 71-85 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
CBB TV Game of the Month. My selection is on Syracuse plus the points over Duke at 7 pm et on Monday. The majority of bettors will likely be on the Blue Devils in this game but we'll go the other way and back the Orange as they look to halt Duke's three-game winning streak. The Orange don't have a good track record on the road this season by any means but they've also faced a very tough slate of opponents. Everyone was down on the Blue Devils after they suffered three straight losses to Miami, North Carolina and Notre Dame earlier this month but since then they've reeled off three straight wins over N.C. State, Wake Forest and Virginia. The win over Virginia came by a single point on Saturday and I think that puts them in a letdown situation here. Syracuse has won three straight games, scoring 70+ points on each occasion. Note that Duke is just 2-8 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Blue Devils are also 7-17 ATS following two straight wins over conference opponents over the last three seasons. This is the game the Orange have no trouble at all getting up for, on a Monday night at Cameron Indoor Stadium in front of an ESPN audience. Take Syracuse (10*). |
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02-21-21 | South Florida +1.5 v. Temple | Top | 83-76 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Temple at 2 pm et on Sunday. South Florida has no business being the underdog in this matchup on the road against Temple on Sunday afternoon. The Bulls will certainly get up for this game on the heels of three consecutive losses with the most recent coming in blowout fashion on the road against in-state rival UCF. Temple has just four wins in 13 games this season and has lost five in a row with the last four coming by a combined 14 points. Those results were somewhat flattering for an Owls team that just isn't very good. Note that Temple ranks T295th in the country in offensive rating and T207th in defensive rating this season. USF hasn't been much better but the Bulls will be good enough to secure the much-needed road win on Sunday afternoon. Take South Florida (10*). |
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02-20-21 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 213 | Top | 96-94 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
NBA TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Los Angeles at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game in last Saturday night's ABC showcase game but I'm confident we'll see a much different type of game unfold this week as the Heat travel to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers. We won with Miami in Thursday's win in Sacramento. This is obviously a tougher matchup, even with the Lakers missing some key cogs. Jimmy Butler admitted yesterday that his team just 'isn't very good' right now. I believe the Heat will have some trouble stringing together quality possessions in this game. Meanwhile, the Lakers are playing without Anthony Davis, obviously striking a major hit at both ends of the floor, but particularly on offense. While we can expect a better performance than we saw on Thursday, it's worth noting that game saw 117 first half points but still didn't come close to toppling the total. I'm anticipating some old school basketball on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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02-20-21 | Vanderbilt v. Alabama -15 | Top | 78-82 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Alabama minus the points over Vanderbilt at 1 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with Alabama on Saturday afternoon as it draws a favorable matchup against Vandy on its home floor. The Crimson Tide remain an underrated Top 10 team as far as I'm concerned. They roll into this game on the heels of a rout of Georgia. Meanwhile, Vandy is coming off a narrow four-point home loss against rival Kentucky on Wednesday night. That came after a somewhat surprising 21-point blowout victory over Mississippi State last Saturday. I simply expect the Commodores to get outmatched here, much like they did in 20-point losses at Davidson and Tennessee earlier this season. Take Alabama (10*). |
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02-19-21 | Jazz v. Clippers +4 | Top | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Utah at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We saw plenty of bettors looking to fade the Jazz in the front half of this two-game set in Los Angeles but were ultimately burned as Utah pulled away against the Kawhi Leonard and Paul George-less Clippers. I believe now is the time to back the Clips as they've been an excellent bounce-back team in recent years and whether they have Kawhi or George back on the floor or not, I like them to give the Jazz a run on Friday night. Note that Los Angeles is an impressive 24-11 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average margin of 12.5 points. They've also gone 17-7 ATS after giving up 105+ points in three straight games, as is the case here, winning those contests by an average margin of over 10 points. The Jazz found themselves in a similar situation to this back at the end of January as they looked to defeat the Nuggets on the road for a second time in two weeks. After notching a 109-105 victory on January 17th they fell by 11 points in the return trip on January 31st. Similarly, I look for Utah to get tripped up here, noting it was also riding a long winning streak (11 games) entering that contest. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-19-21 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Youngstown State -4.5 | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Horizon League Game of the Month. My selection is on Youngstown State minus the points over IUPUI at 5 pm et on Friday. IUPUI caught Illinois-Chicago in a favorable back-to-back spot last weekend and absolutely knocked it out of the park, winning both games by a combined 27-point margin. While the Jaguars have certainly been playing well, I believe they're in a tough spot here on the road against a surging Youngstown State squad that has owned this series on Friday. Youngstown State has taken 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series including each of the last six ATS. The Penguins roll into this game off five straight wins. They've been terrific since the middle of January. Even in their four losses since January 16th they've been right there, losing each of those contests by seven points or less. Note that IUPUI hasn't fared well off outright upset wins over the last three seasons, going 3-11 ATS, losing those games by an average margin of nearly nine points. The Jaguars are a long-term loser when going on the road following two or more consecutive victories, posting an 8-23 ATS mark in that situation. They're also a woeful 13-29 ATS after scoring 85 points or more in their most recent game, as is the case here. Take Youngstown State (10*). |
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02-18-21 | Heat -1 v. Kings | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Sacramento at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Bettors have seemingly lost faith in the Heat, and perhaps for good reason as they've dropped the cash in three straight games. They've generally been a terrific bounce-back team in recent years, however, and I see this as a fine 'get right' spot against a reeling Kings squad. Note that Miami is 30-18 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.5 points in those games. They've also gotten stronger the longer road trips go on, posting a 37-18 ATS mark in road games after playing at least four straight games away from home. The Kings have dropped four games in a row, both SU and ATS, and check in just 7-10 SU at home this season. The Heat need this win and I'm confident they'll get it. Take Miami (10*). |
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02-18-21 | San Diego v. Santa Clara -6.5 | Top | 71-60 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
WCC Game of the Year. My selection is on Santa Clara minus the points over San Diego at 9 pm et on Thursday. San Diego has just two road wins this season and those came against 3-13 Cal Poly and 6-13 Portland. Now the Toreros are in a tough spot having not played since January 28th due to Covid protocols. Meanwhile, Santa Clara will be eager to get right back on the floor after suffering a narrow three-point home loss against 10-6 Loyola Marymount on Tuesday night. Prior to that game the Broncos had been dealing with Covid issues of their own, off since January 23rd. Perhaps the low-grade performance was to be expected in their first game back. These two teams actually met back on January 21st in San Diego with Santa Clara pulling out a six-point win despite shooting just 38% from the field and 62% from the free throw line. Look for a sharper effort from the Broncos here. Take Santa Clara (10*). |
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02-17-21 | Blazers v. Pelicans -3 | Top | 126-124 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Portland at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Pelicans 'got right' with a win in Memphis last night and we were along for the ride, backing them in that victory. Now New Orleans makes the quick trip home to host the Blazers on Wednesday night and I like the Pelicans to deliver the cash again. For Portland, this will be its third game in four nights, in three different cities. The Blazers have undoubtedly been playing well but this might be the spot where tired legs catch up with them. New Orleans ran into a flat spot in its schedule last weekend, culminating with a double-digit loss in Detroit on Sunday night. I liked the way it bounced back last night in Memphis and expect to see some carry-over from that performance here. The Pels' are quite simply catching the Blazers in the right place at the right time as far as I'm concerned. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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02-17-21 | Drake v. Northern Iowa +6 | Top | 77-69 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Iowa plus the points over Drake at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Northern Iowa as it looks to earn some revenge in short order after suffering a 21-point blowout defeat on the road against Drake one week ago tonight. Northern Iowa is mired in a disappointing season overall but has held its own here at home where it has gone 6-4 straight-up. The Panthers are coming off a confidence-boosting 14-point win over Valpo last time out and catch Drake in a favorable spot here, with the Bulldogs coming off a tough 1-1 split against Loyola-Chicago over the weekend. Drake got off to a tremendous start this season but has cooled off lately, going 3-4 ATS over its last seven games, including two SU victories where it failed to cover the spread. This isn't a difficult game for Northern Iowa to get up for and it generally rises to the occasion in this matchup at home, where it has taken the last two meetings and owns a 19-3 SU record against Drake in the last 22 matchups on this floor. In what has the potential to be a game played in the 60's, I'm comfortable grabbing the generous helping of points with the underdog Panthers. Take Northern Iowa (10*). |
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02-16-21 | Pelicans +1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 144-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Memphis at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. In our fade of the Pelicans on Sunday night in Detroit we made note of the fact that it would be a very difficult matchup to get up for. That turned out to be exactly the case as New Orleans was flat and ultimately suffered an 11-point loss. This is a different story altogether as the Pelicans always seem to get up for the Grizzlies with the Zion vs. Ja matchup taking center stage. Note that New Orleans has won four straight meetings in this series, most recently grabbing a 118-109 decision on February 6th. Also note that Stan Van Gundy-coached teams have gone 117-84 ATS off a double-digit loss and 95-67 ATS after losing three of their last four games, as is the case here with the Pelicans. While New Orleans hasn't been a good road team this season, going 4-10 SU, the Grizzlies haven't been much better at home, going 4-7 SU. I believe a letdown is in order for the Grizz after they won by 14 points in Sacramento on Sunday. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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02-16-21 | Florida +5 v. Arkansas | Top | 64-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Florida plus the points over Arkansas at 7 pm et on Tuesday. With the Gators coming off an upset loss at home against South Carolina and Arkansas off an upset win of its own at Missouri, I can understand where the oddsmakers are coming from installing Florida as an underdog in this matchup. That doesn't mean I agree with the logic, however. Note that Arkansas is a miserable 23-44 ATS after an outright underdog win and also 5-14 ATS after covering the spread in four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Florida, meanwhile, has gone 17-7 ATS after dropping the cash in two of its last three games over the last three seasons, winning those games by an average margin of nearly 12 points. Florida has won three straight meetings with Arkansas and is 25-7 against the Razorbacks in the last 32 matchups. Take Florida (10*). |
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02-15-21 | Hawks -1.5 v. Knicks | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over New York at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Knicks have caught favorable matchups in their last two games, going on the road against a Bradley Beal-less Wizards squad on Friday before hosting a struggling Rockets team on Saturday. This should be a different story on Monday as Atlanta will be highly-motivated off back-to-back losses and with revenge in mind after the Knicks won by a 113-108 score in Atlanta back on January 4th (we won with New York in that game). Note that Tom Thibodeau-coached teams (the Knicks in this case) have gone 5-18 ATS in home games following a 20+ point win at home over the course of his career. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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02-14-21 | Indiana State v. Evansville +3 | Top | 76-70 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Evansville plus the points over Indiana State at 4 pm et on Sunday. I won't hesitate to fade Indiana State as a road favorite here noting that the Sycamores only road wins this season have come against 5-14 Illinois State and 6-13 Northern Iowa. Indiana State had its seven-game winning streak snapped in a 70-67 loss at Northern Iowa last Sunday. I can't help but think the Sycamores would have liked to get right back on the floor rather than wait a week before this game. Note that Indiana State is 0-7 ATS when playing on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 15 points in those games. Meanwhile, Evansville has reeled off four straight ATS wins and checks in as a solid momentum play having gone 8-2 ATS following an ATS victory this season. The Purple Aces are one of the nation's best three-point shooting teams, ranking 18th in made three-pointers per game and T48th in three-point percentage. That sets them up well as Indiana State is 9-25 ATS in road games against opponents that average eight or more made threes per game, outscored by nearly 12 points per contest in that situation. Take Evansville (10*). |
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02-14-21 | Hofstra +2 v. James Madison | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
CAA Game of the Month. My selection is on Hofstra plus the points over James Madison at 2 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a quick revenge spot for Hofstra after suffering a narrow 93-89 loss against the Dukes yesterday. Keep in mind, Hofstra has a number of quality wins away from home this season, including over 10-5 Monmouth and 10-4 Richmond. Despite yesterday's loss, the Pride are still 4-2 in their last six meetings with James Madison. They've gone an impressive 24-11 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in a game over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, James Madison has gone 5-12 ATS in the same situation over the last three seasons. The Dukes have now grabbed the cash in six straight games following yesterday's win but should be in tough on Sunday, noting that Hofstra hasn't dropped the cash in consecutive games since an extended ATS losing streak in the first couple of weeks of January. Take Hofstra (10*). |
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02-13-21 | Pacers v. Hawks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 125-113 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. The Pacers are coming off four consecutive 'under' results and I look for more of the same on Saturday as they head to Atlanta to face the reeling Hawks. Note that the 'under' has cashed at a 25-12 clip when Indiana comes off three or more straight 'unders' over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just over 210 points - a very low total by today's NBA standards. Also note that the 'under' is 55-37 when the Pacers follow up an ATS win over the last three seasons, with those games reaching an average of 214 points - well south of tonight's posted total. The Hawks haven't been a terrible defensive team this season. Quite the opposite, in fact. Atlanta is allowing 111.4 points per game against opponents that average 112.7 ppg. Here at home, it is giving up 110 ppg on the season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia UNDER 129.5 | Top | 48-60 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Virginia at 6 pm et on Saturday. This game will feature a contrast in styles but I expect Virginia to dictate the pace at home as usual, leading to a relatively low-scoring game. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in North Carolina's last seven games in the current o/u range, with those games totaling an average of just 117.3 points. Also note that Virginia has posted a 32-54 o/u mark when coming off a game as a road favorite, with those games averaging around 126 total points. While Virginia is certainly known for its defense and that has held true this season as it has given up just north of 59 points per game against opponents that average 73.5 ppg, North Carolina has also fared well defensively, giving up just over 70 ppg against opponents that average over 73 ppg. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-21 | Villanova v. Creighton +3 | Top | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Creighton plus the points over Villanova at 5 pm et on Saturday. With Villanova coming off a 32-point dismantling of Marquette on Wednesday. That marked the Wildcats second straight ATS win as a double-digit favorite. Here, they're obviously laying far fewer points but draw a tough matchup against Creighton. The Blue Jays have also won back-to-back games, including a 15-point win on the road against Georgetown earlier this week. Note that the Jays are 20-10 ATS after winning four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average of nearly nine points. They're also 10-2 ATS after giving up 60 points or less in a game over their last three seasons, winning those games by an average margin of 11 points. There's no intimidation factor at play here as Creighton took the last meeting in the series by 15 points last February. While Villanova will obviously be looking for revenge here, that's always a better proposition playing at home. We'll grab the points but hopefully won't need them. Take Creighton (10*). |
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02-12-21 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Memphis at 10:05 pm et on Friday. This is an excellent spot to back the Lakers at a reasonably short number coming off consecutive overtime wins over the Thunder and three straight non-ATS covers. Memphis just snapped a four-game losing streak with a resounding 130-114 win over Charlotte on Wednesday but now heads to Los Angeles where it has lost its last two meetings with the Lakers by 29 and 12 points. Note that Memphis is dealing with a number of key absences, but perhaps one is flying under the radar with Desmond Bane expected to miss due to personal reasons. He has been giving the Grizzlies around 25 productive minutes per game off the bench and his absence will be felt here. Of course, there's uncertainty around Lakers star Anthony Davis' availability but that has been more than factored into this price in my opinion. Note that the Lakers have owned the Southwest Division over the last two seasons, going 21-10 ATS. They swept consecutive games in Memphis back in early January. We actually won with the Grizzlies in the second game of that set but that was after the Lakers took the first game by 14 points. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-12-21 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -4.5 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Clemson minus the points over Georgia Tech at 8 pm et on Friday. This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions, not to mention the revenge angle in play. Georgia Tech has dropped four of its last six games while Clemson checks in winners of three of its last four. Of course, the last time these two teams met it was no contest as Georgia Tech rolled to a 83-65 win at home. That came during a three-game slide for Clemson - with all three games resulting in blowout defeats. We saw the Tigers break out of their shooting funk in a big way last time out as they shot better than 52% from the field in a 17-point rout of Syracuse. Defensively, they've held three of their last four opponents to sub-39% shooting. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, has cooled offensively and now faces a Clemson squad that allows just 62.6 points per game against opponents that average 72.4 ppg on the season. I expect the Tigers to own the glass in this contest, which should help them ultimately put this game away. Note that Clemson has been a strong momentum play in similar situations in recent years, having gone 13-3 ATS following a double-digit win over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average margin of nearly 12 points. Take Clemson (10*). |
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02-12-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Texas-San Antonio -4 | Top | 80-84 | Push | 0 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas-San Antonio minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 7 pm et on Friday. Florida Atlantic had its three-game winning streak snapped in a 74-71 loss vs. Charlotte back on January 23rd. Why am I going back to a game played weeks ago, you ask? Because the Owls haven't played since due to Covid protocols. The extended layoff was probably the worst thing for FAU after it had been playing well. Note that the Owls only two road victories this season have come against 7-11 North Florida and 9-12 Florida International. UTSA has to be feeling pretty good about itself after scoring 87 and 90 points in consecutive wins at FIU last weekend. The Roadrunners have lost just one game at home this season and that came against a quality 10-6 North Texas squad back on January 8th. UTSA will be playing with double-revenge in this spot after dropping both meetings against FAU last season. Note that the Roadrunners are 18-5 ATS at home against C-USA foes over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of eight points per game. They're also a solid momentum play having gone a perfect 6-0 ATS after covering the number in at least two consecutive games over the last three seasons, winning those contests by an average margin of over 15 points. Take UTSA (10*). |
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02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
NBA on TNT TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Portland at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. This is being billed as a showdown between two of the league's top scorers in Joel Embiid and Damian Lillard. I believe the game may come down to defense, however. Keep in mind, these two teams just met earlier this month with the Blazers stunning the 76ers by a 121-105 score in Philadelphia. That was an uncharacteristically sloppy performance from Philadelphia as it committed 18 turnovers and gave up 19 offensive rebounds, directly contributing to the Blazers getting off 98 field goal attempts. Note that only the Lakers have been better than the 76ers in terms of defensive efficiency away from home this season. While the Blazers rank near the bottom of the Association in that category overall they actually sit sixth over their last three games. On the flip side, the Blazers somewhat surprisingly rank in the bottom-third of the NBA in floor percentage at home. I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers +5.5 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Philadelphia at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. This situation sets up nicely for the Blazers as they host the red hot 76ers on Thursday night. Philadelphia opened this western road trip with a 119-111 win in Sacramento on Tuesday night, marking their second straight ATS victory and sixth in their last seven games. Note that Philadelphia is a woeful 11-26 ATS after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three seasons. The Sixers are also a long-term loser in this pointspread range on the road, going 9-21 ATS, outscored by an average of around three points per game, when laying six points or less away from home. Meanwhile, Portland has gone 105-75 ATS as a home underdog of six points or less. The Blazers are feeling some good vibes right now having won three of their last four games. They'll let weaker opponents hang around here at home, as we saw in Monday's single-digit win over the injury-depleted Magic. However, they're also capable of stepping up against quality opponents such as Philadelphia. Take Portland (10*). |
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02-11-21 | Colorado v. Stanford +1.5 | Top | 69-51 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Stanford plus the points over Colorado at 7 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for Stanford as it hosts 15-5 Colorado on Thursday. The Buffaloes are coming off consecutive home wins over Arizona and Oregon State but those victories were to be expected as they were favored by seven and 13 points, respectively. That sets up Colorado poorly here as it is a miserable 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games following two or more straight home wins over the last three seasons. Going back much further the Buffs' are 62-88 ATS when going on the road off a straight-up home win. Stanford just delivered a two-game sweep of Cal and is well-positioned as a momentum play here at home, where the Cardinal have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS at home off a home conference win over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 13 points per game in that situation. On the flip side, they're also 19-9 ATS after dropping the cash in two of their last three games over the last three seasons. Colorado has taken 11 of the last 17 meetings in this series but Stanford has held its own in recent years, splitting the last four matchups. Take Stanford (10*). |
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02-10-21 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska UNDER 137 | Top | 61-48 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Nebraska at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. This spot sets up ideally as the Badgers head to Nebraska off a disappointing 15-point loss at Illinois on Saturday. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 when Wisconsin plays on the road off one or more losses over the last two years, with those games averaging a total of just 116.5 points. The 'under' is also 9-1 in the Badgers last 10 games following an ATS loss with those games reaching an average of just 118.7 points. Nebraska is one of the Big Ten's worst teams but should be up for this one after getting crushed in back-to-back road games last week. Note that while the Huskers are by no means a strong defensive team, they have held their last two opponents below 40% shooting. Also note that the first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 120 points with only 40 made field goals. The Huskers are a long-term 'under' play here at home, where they've posted a 90-127 o/u record over their last 217 lined contests. Take the under (10*). |
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02-10-21 | Missouri v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Missouri at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I like the momentum play with Ole Miss in this one as they look to gain some traction off consecutive wins over Tennessee and Auburn. Note that the Rebels are 8-1 ATS off an outright underdog win over a conference opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by more than five points per game in that situation. They're also a solid 29-17 ATS coming off an ATS win over that same stretch. Missouri is coming off an extended run of success in SEC play but it's worth mentioning that the Tigers have gone 6-15 ATS after covering four or five of their last six games and have been outscored by nearly five points per game in that situation. They're a long-term losing proposition on the road having gone 102-134 ATS in their last 236 lined games away from home. I can't help but think a letdown could be in order for 13-3 Missouri here. Take Ole Miss (10*). |
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02-10-21 | Hornets v. Grizzlies UNDER 226 | Top | 114-130 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. On the heels of four straight losses and after giving up 128 points in Monday's loss to the Raptors, you have to think the Grizzlies will be hyper-focused on improving their defensive play in this seemingly winnable game against the Hornets on Wednesday night. Despite their recent slide, the Grizz still rank top 10 in the league in defensive rating. Unfortunately their offense has gone cold, with Ja Morant in particular really struggling to regain his shooting touch since returning from injury late last month. The Hornets have scored exactly 119 points in consecutive games, but still rank T21st in the league in field goal percentage and in the bottom half of the NBA in terms of pace rating. The last time these two teams met back on New Year's Day they combined to score just 201 points. Take the under (10*). |
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02-10-21 | Clippers -10 v. Wolves | Top | 119-112 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Off back-to-back losses we can anticipate the Clippers will be in a foul mood and ready to take out their frustrations on the hapless T'Wolves on Wednesday night. Last season the Clips ranked fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency but they've taken a step back in that regard this year, middling in 15th position in that category. Here, they catch a break however, as Minnesota ranks 28th in the league in offensive efficiency with no discernible difference between their poor results on the road and at home. Interestingly, the Clips check in tops in the league in offensive efficiency on the road and despite the fact they're off consecutive losses, they rank sixth in that category over their last three contests. There's reason to believe we'll see a breakout performance from Los Angeles here. I'm fine with laying the double-digits in this spot. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-09-21 | St. John's v. Butler -2.5 | Top | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Year. My selection is on Butler minus the points over St. John's at 9 pm et on Tuesday. St. John's got the better of Butler earlier this season, rolling to a double-digit victory on its home floor back in January. Keep in mind, that sets up Butler nicely here noting that the Bulldogs have gone an incredible 8-1 ATS in home games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent over the last two seasons. Also note that Butler is an impressive 23-10 ATS the last 33 times it has played after losing three of its last four games - as is the case here. The Red Storm are by no means a stout defensive team and it's worth mentioning that they're 13-29 ATS when following up a game where both teams scored 80+ points. With St. John's rolling off six consecutive wins, it is certain to get Butler's best shot here. I like the Bulldogs to clamp down defensively and build off their last game - a double-digit win over Depaul on Saturday. Take Butler (10*). |
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02-09-21 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech -5 | Top | 82-71 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over West Virginia at 9 pm et on Tuesday. West Virginia caught Texas Tech flat-footed in the last meeting between these two teams back on January 25th. The Red Raiders entered that game off a tough home loss to Baylor - snapping a three-game winning streak in the process. Perhaps more importantly, Texas Tech was coming off an eight-day layoff while West Virginia had just got a nice tune-up two days earlier in a 22-point rout of Kansas State. Not surprisingly, the Mountaineers shot the lights out (57.7%) but still only managed to defeat Texas Tech by a single point, at home no less. Now West Virginia finds itself in a tough spot, noting that the Mountaineers are 1-8 ATS on the road when coming off a win over a conference opponent over the last three seasons, losing those games by around 11 points per contest. They're also just 56-83 ATS when playing on the road after winning three of their last four games. This time it's Texas Tech that's fresh off a nice tune-up win over Kansas State, having defeated the Wildcats 73-62 on Saturday. That marked the Red Raiders third straight win. Look for them to make it four in a row here in convincing fashion. Take Texas Tech (10*). |
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02-08-21 | Warriors v. Spurs +1 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio over Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up as a fade/letdown spot for the Warriors after an draining two-game set in Dallas which they only managed a split. Steph Curry is of course coming off a 57-point outburst in front of a national TV audience on Saturday night but that wasn't enough to secure the victory. Now the Warriors head to San Antonio to face a Spurs squad that may not draw as much motivation but is a formidable opponent nonetheless. San Antonio has won five of its last seven games overall and should be a galvanized unit off consecutive tight victories over the Timberwolves and Rockets. With this being the first of a back-to-back set here at the AT&T Center, look for the Spurs to put their best foot forward on Monday night. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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01-26-21 | Knicks +11 v. Jazz | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Utah at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I have no problem fading the red hot Jazz here as they aim to extend their eight-game winning streak, but do so with an eye on a three-game in five-night stretch against the Mavs and Nuggets up next. The Knicks betting bandwagon was loading up on the heels of three straight victories last week but has since cleared following consecutive losses to the Kings and Trailblazers. I expect New York's best effort here as it tries to avoid a losing four-game road trip before a couple of off days. Note that New York took the first meeting between these two teams this season, by double-digits no less, back on January 6th at home. While the Jazz will be looking to get their revenge here, I'm still not sure a losing squad like the Knicks will garner their complete attention. Take New York (10*). |
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01-23-21 | Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 | Top | 108-127 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Utah at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Jazz are coming off a high-scoring game against the Pelicans on Thursday night but that was to be expected given the recent history between those two teams. Here, I look for Utah to control proceedings defensively and ultimately keep this one 'under' the posted total. The Warriors have been playing better lately and rank third in the league in pace rating but I'm not sure that up-tempo play will be all that fruitful against the Jazz given they're one of the league's better defensive teams (6th in defensive rating) and the fact that Golden State ranks 22nd in field goal percentage. While the Warriors aren't known for their strong defensive play, they do rank in the top half of the league in terms of defensive rating. Note that prior to Thursday's 129-point outburst against an awful Pelicans defense, the Jazz had scored 118 points or less in five consecutive games. Take the under (10*). |
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01-15-21 | Mavs +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Mavs have been in catch-up mode ever since starting the season with consecutive losses. They've certainly done a nice job lately, reeling off four straight victories entering Friday's showdown with the Bucks. I expect them to give Milwaukee all it can handle in this one. Unlike the Bucks last few opponents (their current three-game winning streak has come at the expense of the Cavs, Magic and Pistons), the Mavs aren't going to beat themselves. Dallas ranks eight in the NBA in fewest turnovers per offensive play. By contrast, the Bucks actually rank 17th in that category. Also note that the Mavs are top three in the league in opponents effective field goal percentage. It's not as if Dallas has faced a soft schedule either. The Mavs opponents have included the Suns, Lakers, Clippers, Heat, Rockets and Nuggets. Meanwhile, the Bucks have gone 1-3 SU in their four toughest matchups to date, against the Celtics, Heat (twice) and Jazz. Outside of that they really haven't been challenged. This should be a tightly-contested affair. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-08-21 | Thunder v. Knicks -145 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Moneyline Game of the Month. My selection is on New York (moneyline) over Oklahoma City at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Knicks as they aim to extend their three-game winning streak on Friday night against the Thunder. In my opinion, New York is more likely to get tripped up in one of its next two games - at home against Denver on Sunday or at Charlotte on Monday. The Knicks have been as steady as they come lately, posting five wins in their last six games - seemingly toughening up late in each of those contests. Last time out they got just nine points on a 4-of-14 shooting night from super sophomore R.J. Barrett. Expect a big bounce-back performance from the Canadian here. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is just 3-4 on the campaign but has won two of its last three contests. The Thunder almost gave away their most recent victory, narrowly holding on for a one-point win over the Pelicans after entering the fourth quarter with a double-digit lead. Here, I don't think they'll be so fortunate. Take New York moneyline (10*). |
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01-05-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +9 | Top | 94-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lakers had little trouble brushing aside the Grizzlies two nights ago, cruising to a 14-point victory. Keep in mind, Memphis shot just 41% from the field and got to the free throw line only eight times in that contest. The 14-point margin of victory for the Lakers was probably a little flattering for the Grizzlies in actual fact. Here, I look for the Grizzlies to turn in a better showing, while the Lakers turn in less than a peak performance with an eye on a three-game in four night stretch beginning on Thursday. There will obviously be games where the Lakers conserve a little energy over the course of this unique 2020-21 season, and this might just be one of them. The Grizzlies have actually held their own since losing star sophomore Ja Morant to injury. He went down early in their eventual overtime win over the Nets on December 28th. Including that game, they've gone 2-2 since losing Morant. This is a key spot for the Grizzlies as they aim to give themselves at least a chance of posting a winning homestand, with two winnable games against the Cavs and the perceiveably Durant-less Nets up next. Take Memphis (10*). |
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12-16-20 | Wagner v. Bryant OVER 153 | Top | 62-74 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
CBB NEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wagner and Bryant at 4 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a track meet in this Northeast Conference matchup between Wagner and Bryant on Wednesday afternoon. Wagner is off to a winless start after getting hammered 78-45 by Seton Hall in its season opener last Tuesday. The Seahawks shot a miserable 27% from the field in that contest, including 3-of-20 from beyond the arc. Impressively, they did manage to grab 11 offensive rebounds and outscored the Pirates 13-6 in second chance points. That was obviously little consolation in an otherwise dismal performance, however. Here, the Seahawks should rebound and at least get their offense on track against a Bryant squad that loves to push the pace. In fact, no teams in the country ranks higher than Bryant in terms of pace rating this season. The Bulldogs are shooting an impressive 48.4% overall and making just shy of 11 three-pointers per game. It's unlikely Wagner will be able to slow them down, but as the pointspread indicates, I do expect a competitive affair that ultimately topples the total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-15-20 | Charlotte v. Davidson OVER 130 | Top | 63-52 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Davidson at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting. Charlotte is off to a disappointing 1-3 start this season and checks in as a double-digit underdog here. However, I do believe the 49ers can break through offensively against a beatable Davidson defense. Note that the Wildcats check in a miserable T256th in defensive rating and average just 3.4 steals per contest, good for a laughable 317th in the country. Also note that they've recorded just seven blocks in their last four games overall. Of course, we know Davidson can score. While its pace leaves something to be desired, it has more than made up for it by shooting better than 50% from the field while averaging just shy of 10 made three-pointers per game. There's reason to believe the Wildcats can keep that going against a very average 49ers defense. Charlotte has faced a very difficult schedule so far this season and it doesn't get easier here, but the 49ers should certainly improve on a 57-point effort last time out - a game in which they shot 39% from the field and were blocked 10 times. Take the over (10*). |
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12-14-20 | Rutgers v. Maryland UNDER 140.5 | Top | 74-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Rutgers and Maryland at 6 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' as the Scarlet Knights and Terrapins do battle in an intriguing early season Big Ten matchup on Monday evening. Rutgers is off to a flawless 4-0 start this season, earning itself a top 25 ranking. The Knights have quite simply shot the lights out in the early going this season but they'll run into arguably their toughest opponent of the season to date on Monday, noting that Maryland has limited each of its first five opponents to 45% or worse shooting. While the Terps are off to a positive 4-1 start to the campaign it hasn't come without some sloppiness. Note that they've posted double-digit turnovers in each of their last four games since opening the season with a near flawless rout of Old Dominion. Likewise, Rutgers has also recorded double-digit turnovers in all but its first game this season. I expect both teams to step up defensively in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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12-11-20 | North Texas v. West Virginia OVER 138 | Top | 50-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between North Texas and West Virginia at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring contest between North Texas and West Virginia on Friday afternoon. The Mean Green Eagles are coming off consecutive losses against SEC opponents in Arkansas and Mississippi State. UNT ran into block parties against the Hogs and Bulldogs, blocked 15 times in those two contests. It's tough to get a real gauge on where the Eagles are at offensively given their only other game was played against Mississippi Valley State - a game they won by a 116-62 score. I do think they catch West Virginia in a bit of a letdown spot defensively with the Mountaineers coming off games against Gonzaga and Georgetown. I don't think we'll see WVU shy away from an up-tempo affair on Friday. The Mountaineers have scored at least 78 points in four of five games this season. The lone time they didn't came in the tail-end of a tough three-game in three-day stretch, and they still managed to get to 70 in that game against Western Kentucky. Take the over (10*). |
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12-04-20 | Toledo v. Eastern Michigan OVER 136 | Top | 91-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Toledo and Eastern Michigan at 7 pm et on Friday. Toledo is already four games into its 2020-21 campaign, having gone 2-2, scoring 70 or more points in three of those contests. The other end of the floor has been a mixed bag for the Rockets, however, noting that they've recorded just six blocks through four games and have benefited from some absolutely dreadful three-point shooting from their opposition. Obviously some of that has to do with Toledo's ability to guard the perimeter, but I generally expect some regression to the mean moving forward. Eastern Michigan has played just once, suffering an 83-67 loss to Michigan State last Wednesday. The Eagles approached the 70-point mark despite shooting just 4-of-21 from three-point range and making good on only 11 free throw attempts in that contest - and that was against a far better defensive team than they'll face on Friday. The last time these two teams met Toledo rolled to a 22-point victory and the game saw 136 total points. This time around, I'm expecting a more competitive affair and that should lend itself to a higher-scoring contest in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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12-03-20 | Connecticut +1 v. USC | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
ESPN Game of the Month. My selection is on Connecticut over USC at 7 pm et on Thursday. I like the upside with UConn in this matchup as it catches USC coming off a big early season win over BYU. The Huskies are off to a 2-0 start and have recorded 34 assists and 15 blocks. They've shot just 15-of-45 from three-point range but I certainly anticipate some positive regression in that regard moving forward. USC checks in shooting just 58% from the free throw line and averages fewer than three steals per contest while committing nearly 16 turnovers per game. The Huskies have been far more active defensively, noting the block total earlier and the fact that they're averaging eight steals per game. Take Connecticut (10*). |
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10-11-20 | Lakers -5 v. Heat | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. Game 5 on Friday night had very much the look of a 'last stand' of sorts from Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat. Left exhausted at the end of that thrilling affair, I'm not convinced the Heat can keep pace with the Lakers for four quarters on Sunday night. Lebron James' critics have once again come out of the woodwork following that missed opportunity to close this series out in Game 5 - despite his 40-point, 13-rebound performance. I certainly expect another positive response from Lebron (and perhaps more importantly, his supporting cast) here. The Lakers have essentially controlled this series from the jump and I'm not going to knock them for slipping up in their first shot at closing out the series on Friday. Miami has shown plenty of resiliency throughout these playoffs and has proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out'. However, now we're dealing with a very reasonable price to back what is sure to be a determined Lakers squad eager to bring an end to 'bubble life' and deliver the Larry O'Brien trophy back to Los Angeles. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-02-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Friday. This total is going the wrong way in my opinion following an 'under' result in Game 1. Keep in mind, prior to that relatively low-scoring series-opening result, seven straight games involving these two teams (in the Conference Finals) had gone 'over' the total we're dealing with here in Game 2. The Heat will likely be undermanned in this one with Bam Adebayo dealing with a neck strain. His absence shouldn't be underestimated as he was named to the NBA All-Defensive Second Team just last month. I do think we'll see the Heat punch back after their no-show in Game 1, although the lopsided spread would seem to indicate otherwise. In fact, neither team performed quite up to standards offensively in the series-opener - yet the final score still nearly eclipsed the total. Even the Lakers have room for impnrovement offensively. I expect a different story to unfold here on Friday night and we're being offered a very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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09-11-20 | Celtics -128 v. Raptors | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston (moneyline) over Toronto at 9 pm et on Friday. I picked the Celtics to win this series at the onset and I won't waver from that position here in Game 7. Give the defending champion Raptors credit, they've battled all the way back in this series but what else would you expect? There was no way a team as talented, experienced and well-coached as the Raptors were going to roll over. With that being said, the Raps are fortunate to have forced a Game 7 with a miracle buzzer beater leading to one win and another coming by way of double overtime. This is a huge game for Celtics head coach Brad Stevens as he needs to respond to Nick Nurse's adjustments and get his team over the hump. Desperation has shifted to the Celtics now and I look for their stars to respond accordingly. Take Boston moneyline (10*). |
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09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 210 | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors haven't had much of a prayer of slowing down the Celtics multi-dimensional offensive attack during this series and as a result they're facing the prospect of elimination on Wednesday night. I don't expect the Raps to suddenly come up with an answer for the four-headed monster of Brown, Tatum, Walker and Smart on Wednesday. With that being said, I also don't expect to see Siakam and Lowry combine to make a paltry eight shots again either. The Raptors are the defending champions and as such, I don't think we'll see them go away quietly. This is the lowest posted total we've seen in this series so far, and I believe it will prove far too low on Wednesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really think this is a blowout in the making as the weary Nuggets take on the Clippers just one day removed from outlasting the Jazz in what was an opening round war of attrition. Los Angeles is well-rested, and likely to keep rolling after rounding into form in the latter stages of the first round. The Clips didn't exactly come roaring out of the gates here in the "bubble" but they didn't have to. Here, I look for them to get off to a blazing start to the second round as they do a far better job of containing Jokic and Murray than the Jazz did in the Nuggets last series. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 221 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Milwaukee at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total in this matchup since Game 1, despite the fact that the series-opener did manage to reach 219 total points (not much lower than the closing total of 224). I believe we'll consider to see the totals drop as this series progresses as we should be in for another relatively low-scoring affair (by today's NBA standards) on Wednesday. Keep in mind, both teams shot the ball pretty well, particularly from three-point range, two nights ago. As expected, Miami was able to slow down the Bucks pace, something I think we'll continue to see as the series goes on. The Bucks got punched in the mouth in Game 1 but I'm confident we'll see them punch back on Wednesday. But am I confident enough that I'm willing to lay a handful of points with them against a gritty Heat squad? Not a chance. Instead we'll focus on the total and call for a tightly-contested affair in Game 2. Take the under (10*). |
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08-24-20 | Pacers v. Heat OVER 216.5 | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Miami at 6:30 pm et on Monday. This has been a relatively low-scoring series to this point (by today's NBA standards at least). I look for some carry-over from Game 4 on Monday, however, noting that Saturday's game reached a series-high 239 total points. This is it for the Pacers. They'll be in desperation mode on Monday and they at the very least have proven they can score against Miami, having put up at least 100 points in all four previous games in this series. As for Miami, it managed to score 124 points despite shooting just 45% from the field in Game 4. The Heat were certainly aggressive, however, getting to the free throw line a whopping 52 times in that contest. Expect they to make a concerted effort to close out the Pacers here, leading to a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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Sean Murphy Basketball Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-26-21 | Nets -5.5 v. Pistons | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
03-25-21 | Blazers v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
03-25-21 | NC State v. Colorado State UNDER 146 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
03-23-21 | Nuggets v. Magic OVER 216 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
03-22-21 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 230 | Top | 113-140 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
03-22-21 | Abilene Christian +5 v. UCLA | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Oregon State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Bulls -3 v. Pistons | Top | 100-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
03-20-21 | UCLA v. BYU OVER 138.5 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Spurs v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 113-120 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Texas Southern v. Michigan -25 | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
03-19-21 | Winthrop +7 v. Villanova | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
03-19-21 | Nets v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
03-17-21 | Heat -1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 85-89 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
03-16-21 | Knicks v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
03-15-21 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 225 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -151 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
03-14-21 | Cavs v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 82-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
03-13-21 | Bucks v. Wizards +11 | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
03-13-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Nevada v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
03-12-21 | South Florida +9 v. Wichita State | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
03-12-21 | California v. Colorado -13.5 | Top | 58-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
03-11-21 | Suns v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
03-11-21 | Mississippi State +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
03-10-21 | Spurs +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
03-10-21 | San Jose State v. Wyoming -11.5 | Top | 80-111 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
03-09-21 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -8 | Top | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
03-08-21 | Northern Kentucky -1 v. Oakland | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
03-08-21 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -17.5 | Top | 55-78 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
03-07-21 | Drake v. Loyola-Chicago -7.5 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
03-06-21 | Butler v. Creighton -12.5 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
03-06-21 | Illinois v. Ohio State -2 | Top | 73-68 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
03-05-21 | Colorado State v. Nevada +1.5 | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
03-04-21 | Texas v. Oklahoma -2 | Top | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
03-04-21 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 234.5 | Top | 112-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
03-03-21 | Thunder +8 v. Mavs | Top | 78-87 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
03-02-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 215.5 | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
03-02-21 | Indiana +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
03-01-21 | Mavs -6.5 v. Magic | Top | 130-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
03-01-21 | Miami-FL v. Virginia OVER 124 | Top | 51-62 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
02-27-21 | Louisville v. Duke -5.5 | Top | 80-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
02-26-21 | Clippers -6.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 119-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
02-26-21 | Indiana State v. Valparaiso +3 | Top | 58-43 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
02-25-21 | Pelicans v. Bucks -9 | Top | 125-129 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
02-24-21 | Florida State v. Miami-FL +11.5 | Top | 88-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
02-24-21 | Pistons v. Pelicans OVER 222 | Top | 118-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
02-23-21 | Wolves v. Bucks -10.5 | Top | 112-139 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
02-22-21 | Syracuse +5 v. Duke | Top | 71-85 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
02-21-21 | South Florida +1.5 v. Temple | Top | 83-76 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
02-20-21 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 213 | Top | 96-94 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
02-20-21 | Vanderbilt v. Alabama -15 | Top | 78-82 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
02-19-21 | Jazz v. Clippers +4 | Top | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
02-19-21 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Youngstown State -4.5 | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
02-18-21 | Heat -1 v. Kings | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
02-18-21 | San Diego v. Santa Clara -6.5 | Top | 71-60 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
02-17-21 | Blazers v. Pelicans -3 | Top | 126-124 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
02-17-21 | Drake v. Northern Iowa +6 | Top | 77-69 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
02-16-21 | Pelicans +1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 144-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
02-16-21 | Florida +5 v. Arkansas | Top | 64-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
02-15-21 | Hawks -1.5 v. Knicks | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
02-14-21 | Indiana State v. Evansville +3 | Top | 76-70 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
02-14-21 | Hofstra +2 v. James Madison | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
02-13-21 | Pacers v. Hawks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 125-113 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
02-13-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia UNDER 129.5 | Top | 48-60 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
02-13-21 | Villanova v. Creighton +3 | Top | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
02-12-21 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
02-12-21 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -4.5 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
02-12-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Texas-San Antonio -4 | Top | 80-84 | Push | 0 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers +5.5 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
02-11-21 | Colorado v. Stanford +1.5 | Top | 69-51 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
02-10-21 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska UNDER 137 | Top | 61-48 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
02-10-21 | Missouri v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
02-10-21 | Hornets v. Grizzlies UNDER 226 | Top | 114-130 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
02-10-21 | Clippers -10 v. Wolves | Top | 119-112 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
02-09-21 | St. John's v. Butler -2.5 | Top | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
02-09-21 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech -5 | Top | 82-71 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
02-08-21 | Warriors v. Spurs +1 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
01-26-21 | Knicks +11 v. Jazz | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
01-23-21 | Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 | Top | 108-127 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
01-15-21 | Mavs +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
01-08-21 | Thunder v. Knicks -145 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
01-05-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +9 | Top | 94-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
12-16-20 | Wagner v. Bryant OVER 153 | Top | 62-74 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
12-15-20 | Charlotte v. Davidson OVER 130 | Top | 63-52 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
12-14-20 | Rutgers v. Maryland UNDER 140.5 | Top | 74-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
12-11-20 | North Texas v. West Virginia OVER 138 | Top | 50-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
12-04-20 | Toledo v. Eastern Michigan OVER 136 | Top | 91-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
12-03-20 | Connecticut +1 v. USC | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Lakers -5 v. Heat | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10-02-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
09-11-20 | Celtics -128 v. Raptors | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 210 | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 221 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
08-24-20 | Pacers v. Heat OVER 216.5 | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |