Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-23-19 | Bulls +4.5 v. Magic | 95-103 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Magic just aren't very good right now, losers of six of their last seven games overall, and now they find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot, playing their first game back at home following a 1-3 road trip out west. Meanwhile, the Bulls have won back-to-back games and sport a 4-2 mark over their last six games. They'll look to carry some positive momentum into the short holiday break before returning home to host the Hawks on the 28th of the month. Take Chicago (10*). |
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12-23-19 | Long Beach State v. Seattle University -4.5 | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Long Beach State at 6 pm et on Monday. Long Beach State bounced back with a win over Utah Valley last time out but still owns just four wins in 13 games this season and the 49ers will be in tough against Seattle on Monday. The Redhawks should be highly-motivated following an ugly loss at home against Florida A&M on Saturday. They've faced a pretty tough schedule this season so their 6-7 overall record isn't all that concerning. We missed the mark with Long Beach State in a blowout home loss against Southern Utah last week and I'm not interested in going back to the well with the 49ers here. Take Seattle (10*). |
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12-23-19 | Canisius v. Siena -5 | Top | 72-73 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
CBB MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Siena minus the points over Canisius at 6 pm et on Monday. We're dealing with a fairly small sample size when it comes to the Siena Saints as they've played just eight games to date this season. With that being said, they've essentially won the games they should and lost the games they should. This is a game they should win. We won with Canisius in its most recent game at Buffalo, although we were fortunate to get in early with that one and catch a favorable line as the Golden Griffins collapsed late and nearly blew the cover. Coming off its first win in over a month - a double-digit decision against Bucknell, look for Siena to earn its first conference victory (and cover) of the campaign on Monday. Take Siena (10*). |
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12-22-19 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Lakers | 128-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the Nuggets in the last meeting between these two teams but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Denver at a more favorable line this time around. The Lakers have cooled off considerably and are coming off back-to-back losses in Indiana and Milwaukee. Note that Denver checks in second in the league in offensive rating over its last five games. Meanwhile, the Lakers dropped to 20th in the NBA in that department over the same stretch. Denver is also top-10 in defensive rating over that time frame. The Lakers may bounce back with a win here, but I'm not convinced they do it by margin. Take Denver (10*). |
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12-22-19 | Charlotte -1.5 v. East Carolina | 56-60 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over East Carolina at 4 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this spot sets up for Charlotte as it travels to face an East Carolina squad that is coming off a blowout win over lowly Maryland-Eastern Shore. Charlotte has reeled off three straight wins - all by double-digit margins. Despite facing a sneaky-tough schedule to this point, the 49ers check in with a solid 6-4 overall mark. East Carolina hasn't been particularly good save for a blowout home win over Evansville earlier in the season. The Pirates are coming off back-to-back home wins but also began this homestand with a 10-point loss to 4-9 Coppin State. Charlotte took the last meeting between these two teams last December. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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12-22-19 | Chicago State +26.5 v. Indiana State | 64-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago State plus the points over Indiana State at 2 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with Chicago State on Sunday afternoon. The Cougars have undoubtedly turned in some truly awful performances this season but that's certainly been baked into this lofty pointspread. Despite coming off three straight losses, the Cougars have been playing a little better lately. In their most recent road game they fell by just six points against a quality Tennessee State squad. Indiana State has reeled off six straight wins since opening the campaign with four straight losses. This may be a 'name your winning margin' type of game for them but I'm not sure they're looking for any style points. This is their final game before the holiday break and I believe they'll simply be looking to win and move on. Take Chicago State (10*). |
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12-22-19 | Maryland-Eastern Shore +20.5 v. Old Dominion | Top | 52-76 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Maryland-Eastern Shore plus the points over Old Dominion at 2 pm et on Sunday. This is a big spot for Maryland-Eastern Shore as it checks in sporting an ugly 1-12 record but has faced a brutal schedule to this point. Old Dominion has recorded only three wins in 12 games and has dropped eight in a row entering Sunday's contest. While the Monarchs should certainly bounce back with a win here, doing so by a considerable margin is no easy task. Keep in mind, ODU won't play again until January 2nd after this one. They've managed to score 60+ points just once in their last seven contests. Coming off back-to-back double-digit losses at East Carolina and Charlotte look for Maryland-Eastern Shore to come to play in this one. Take Maryland-Eastern Shore (10*). |
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12-21-19 | North Carolina -4 v. UCLA | 74-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over UCLA at 3 pm et on Saturday. We settled for a 'push' with North Carolina in its rather lopsided loss on the road against Gonzaga earlier this week. I did like the way the Tar Heels stayed within arm's reach for much of that game before the Zags ultimately proved too much. There's no question Roy Williams' squad is undermanned right now, but this is a solid 'get right' spot against an up and down UCLA team. The Bruins are coming off a 14-point road loss against Notre Dame and check in just 3-4 ATS over their last seven contests. Their only three SU wins over that stretch came against Chaminade, San Jose State and Denver. Look for North Carolina to push the tempo in this one and ultimately outlast the Bruins. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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12-21-19 | Texas State v. Georgia State -2.5 | 69-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia State minus the points over Texas State at 1 pm et on Saturday. We successfully faded Texas State two nights ago as it fell in a tightly-contested affair against Georgia Southern. Now it stays in the state of Georgia to face the Panthers on Saturday afternoon and I look for it to fall short once again. Keep in mind, the Bobcats solid overall record was boosted by some real layups earlier in the season. Georgia State will offer a tougher challenge, noting that it has won six straight games and sitting at 7-2 ATS in lined contests is one of the best bets in the nation, having already given the likes of Duke and Georgetown serious tests, on the road no less. Take Georgia State (10*). |
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12-20-19 | Magic +3.5 v. Blazers | 103-118 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Friday. I'll take a flyer on the Magic on Friday night as they get out of the dreaded back-to-back set in the high altitude of Salt Lake City and Denver and head to Portland to challenge the Trail Blazers. Orlando has dropped five of its last six games overall so motivation will certainly be high for this one. While the Magic haven't had much success in this series, it hasn't been for lack of trying as four of the Blazers last five wins over Orlando have come by single-digit margins. These two teams haven't faced one another in over a year. Portland checks in off back-to-back wins but let's not get too excited about that as the first victory came by a single point in Phoenix and the second came at home against the injury-plagued and disinterested Warriors. The Blazers have won more than two games in a row just once this season and they failed to cover the spread in the final win during that streak. Take Orlando (10*). |
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12-20-19 | Lipscomb +11 v. Vermont | 63-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Lipscomb plus the points over Vermont at 7 pm et on Thursday. Lipscomb has won four of six games since starting the season with four losses in its first five. During their rough start, the Bison suffered two losses as double-digit underdogs, and the other two came by a combined four points so it wasn't really as bad as it seemed. Meanwhile, Vermont started its campaign with four straight wins but has gone just 3-5 since. The Catamounts should win this game - I'm just not convinced they do it by margin. Take Lipscomb (10*). |
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12-19-19 | Southern Utah v. Long Beach State +1.5 | 84-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Long Beach State plus the points over Southern Utah at 10 pm et on Thursday. At 3-8 on the season, but with a really brutal schedule behind them, this is a very strong motivational spot for the Long Beach State 49ers as they host the Southern Utah Jaguars on Thursday night. The 49ers enter this game losers of four games in a row with all four of those games being decided by double-digit margins. Southern Utah on the other hand is coming off back-to-back one-point victories that obviously could have gone either way. The Jaguars are playing with house money in this one, which is generally a favorable mentality for teams at this stage of the season but I'm just not convinced they'll be able to match LBSU's intensity in this, their last game before the Christmas break (Southern Utah won't play again until December 30th at Portland while LBSU plays Utah Valley State on Saturday). Take Long Beach State (10*). |
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12-19-19 | Lakers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
NBA TV Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Bucks, much like the fade of the Mavs set up last night. Of course, earlier this week we saw the Luka Doncic-less Mavs stun the Bucks here in Milwaukee. They were in for a letdown against the Celtics last night as a result, and ultimately lost by six points. Now the Bucks are back to rebound off that ugly loss to the Mavs and they'll have no shortage of motivation against Lebron and the Lakers on Thursday night. I really do think the Bucks will be able to run the Lakers out of the gym in this one. Milwaukee remains number one in the league in offensive rating over its last five games. Meanwhile, the Lakers have tailed off a bit in that department, ranking 11th. The key here is the pace the Bucks play at, ranking fifth in the league in pace rating over their last five contests while the Lakers sit 19th over that same time frame. Look for Milwaukee to make a statement here. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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12-19-19 | Texas State v. Georgia Southern -2 | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia Southern minus the points over Texas State at 7 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the short number with Georgia Southern on Thursday night as it looks to continue its strong play at home this season. The Eagles check in a perfect 4-0 at home this season while Texas State has just one win in four tries away from home, that coming against a struggling UNLV squad that has won just four of 12 games to date. The Bobcats did snap a brief two-game skid with a dominant 117-65 win last time out but that came against little-known Bethany (KS). Georgia Southern will obviously be up for this Sun Belt matchup after getting crushed 81-51 on the road against Bradley last time out. Take Georgia Southern (10*). |
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12-18-19 | Celtics -1.5 v. Mavs | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. This is a no-brainer fading the Luca Doncic-less Mavs off their big win over the Bucks in Milwaukee on Monday night. The Celtics check in playing excellent basketball, ranking third in offensive rating over their last five games while also sitting in the top half of the league in defensive rating. The Mavs have been as good as it gets offensively over that same stretch but there's no question they're going to miss Doncic. I'm sure the Celtics learned a thing or two watching the Bucks get caught flat-footed against the Mavs on Monday. Look for Boston to answer the bell on Wednesday night. Take Boston (10*). |
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12-18-19 | North Carolina +13 v. Gonzaga | 81-94 | Push | 0 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Key injuries or not, the Tar Heels are still the Tar Heels and I expect them to be just fine as the season progresses. This is obviously a huge motivational spot for them after getting upset at home against Wofford last time out. That's not to say this isn't a big spot for the Zags as well. They'll be looking to avenge their loss to the Tar Heels in the 2017 national championship game. I'm not sure that really weighs all that heavily on the current players' minds, however. They'll simply be looking to win this game with little concern for what the final margin of victory is. Most are quick to write off the Tar Heels due to their injuries, but I expect them to hold their own tonight. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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12-18-19 | Canisius +9.5 v. Buffalo | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Canisius plus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Canisius Golden Griffins have gotten off to a sneaky-good 5-4 start this season and I look for them to give the Bulls a run in Buffalo on Wednesday night. Canisius snapped a brief two-game skid with an 80-72 victory over Holy Cross last time out. Keep in mind, its last two losses came by a combined 10 points on the road against Hofstra and Florida Atlantic. Those are the Golden Griffins only two losses going back to November 16th. Buffalo is coming off a stunning double-digit loss as a double-digit favorite at home against Army last time out. While the Bulls will be highly-motivated, and 'should' rebound with a victory here, I don't expect it to come by margin. Take Canisius (10*). |
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12-17-19 | Nets -2 v. Pelicans | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Pelicans continue to struggle defensively, ranking 28th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games and I don't believe this is the matchup that will fix their problems. New Orleans has been pushing the tempo, sitting top-10 in the league in pace rating over its last five contests but I'm not sure that will serve it particularly well in this matchup with the Nets starting to come together defensively, ranking an impressive seventh in the league in defensive rating over that same period. Note that the Nets sit just five spots back of the Pelicans in terms of pace rating over their last five, at the edge of the league's top half. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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12-12-19 | Cavs v. Spurs -11 | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Cavs last night but I won't hesitate to fade them as they hit the road to face the Spurs on Thursday. San Antonio has been a general disappointment this season but finds itself in an absolutely gorgeous spot against the lowly Cavs playing on no rest. The Spurs have been playing better lately, winners of three of their last four games, including a 2-0 mark on their current homestand. Playing their third straight at the AT&T Center, they're in excellent shape to keep their good fortune on Thursday night. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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12-11-19 | Lakers v. Magic +7.5 | 96-87 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I don't like this spot at all for the road weary Lakers. They of course swept a three-game trip through Denver, Utah and Portland last week before returning home to blow the doors off the T'Wolves on Sunday. Now they have to head way east to face the Magic, who are no pushovers, winners of four of their last five games. The Lakers obviously own the far better straight-up record this season but the Magic have a very similar ATS mark. Look for a tightly-contested affair. Take Orlando (10*). |
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12-11-19 | Rockets v. Cavs +11.5 | Top | 116-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Houston at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets have failed to cover the double-digit spread in each of their last two games, most recently losing outright against the Kings, at home no less. Here, I believe they're once again overvalued, noting that they've lost two of their last three games here in Cleveland and check in just 11-12 ATS on the season. The Cavs are reeling right now but that's to be expected. Let's face it, they're not going to win many games this season. After getting blown out on the road against Philadelphia and Boston I do think they'll benefit from returning home, and from facing a weak defensive team in the Rockets. Houston is simply laying too many points in this flat spot in its schedule. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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12-06-19 | Lakers v. Blazers +4 | Top | 136-113 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. At the surface, this may have appeared to be one of the more obvious wins on the Lakers current road trip but now that they've gotten off to a 2-0 start with impressive wins in Denver and Salt Lake City, I believe this is a tricky spot for Lebron James and co. The Blazers are still a losing team on the season but they've been playing better basketball lately, checking in fifth in the league in offensive rating and top 10 in pace rating over their last five games. Their defensive play leaves something to be desired but the Lakers are certainly in a tough spot here, playing for the third time in four nights off back-to-back games in altitude. I'lll grab all the points I can get with the Blazers here. Take Portland (10*). |
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12-06-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -8 | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Iowa at 6:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Wolverines as they look to bounce back after suffering their first loss of the season last time out. That loss wasn't a big surprise as Michigan was in tough on the road in an underdog role against Louisville. This is a far more favorable spot as the Wolverines are back home to host the Hawkeyes in their Big Ten opener. Note that Iowa is coming off a stunning 14-point win on the road against Syracuse. The Hawkeyes have taken care of business against the teams they should this season but have also suffered double-digit losses at the hands of DePaul and San Diego State. They're ripe for a letdown here and I believe we're being asked to lay a reasonable number with UM. Take Michigan (10*). |
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12-03-19 | Lakers v. Nuggets -2 | 105-96 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lakers may own the better overall record and get a lot more press than the Nuggets, but I believe the jury is still out as to whether they're actually the better team. Denver always owns a solid home court advantage and this season has been no different as it checks in with an 8-2 mark. The Lakers are in bounce-back mode off a 14-point loss at home to the Mavericks on Sunday. I'm just not sure this is an ideal bounce-back spot - in fact, I know it's not. The home team has taken eight of the last nine meetings in this series with Denver taking the most recent meeting in Los Angeles last March. Take Denver (10*). |
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12-03-19 | Pistons -2 v. Cavs | 127-94 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Pistons check in top-nine in the league in both offensive and defensive rating over their last five games and while they're not going to run away and hide in this matchup, I do think they should be laying more than a bucket against the lowly Cavaliers. Cleveland has been particularly bad at the defensive end of the floor of late, ranking 29th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. Neither team will look to really push the pace in this one and that serves Detroit just fine as it should cruise to a comfortable road win. Take Detroit (10*). |
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11-22-19 | Hawks +6.5 v. Pistons | 103-128 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams have struggled out of the gates but I believe the Hawks have a little more upside heading into Friday night's contest in Detroit. Atlanta has had the Pistons number in the Motor City in recent years, winning each of the last two meetings here outright and four straight ATS. Neither team checks in sporting solid form offensively. The Hawks sit 23rd in the league in offensive rating over their last five games while the Pistons are just two spots ahead of them over that same stretch. Atlanta actually pulls up the league rear in terms of defensive rating over its last five games but the Pistons haven't been much better in that regard either, sitting 26th. The reason I believe the Hawks can put one over on Detroit here is the fact that they are second in the league in pace rating over their last five contests while the Pistons rank in the league's bottom-eight. If Atlanta can effectively push the pace here it should be able to really expose a struggling Detroit defense. The Hawks don't play much 'D' themselves, but I'm simply not convinced the Pistons can take advantage. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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11-20-19 | Pistons v. Bulls -1 | 89-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Bulls have only been installed as a short favorite in this one but I believe there's a good chance they run the Pistons off the floor at United Center on Wednesday. Note that Detroit does check in showing excellent form offensively, ranking sixth in the league in offensive rating over its last five games. There are a couple of problems, however. The Pistons are 26th in pace rating over that same stretch and face a Bulls squad that sits in the top half of the league in defensive rating over their last five games as well. Chicago impressively sits atop the league in pace rating over that same period and should be able to take full advantage of a Pistons team that ranks 26th in defensive rating. Take Chicago (10*). |
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11-20-19 | Bucks -11 v. Hawks | 135-127 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. This is an absolute smash spot for the Bucks as they head to Atlanta to take on the Hawks. Milwaukee's offense has lagged a little of late, and we took advantage of that fact by playing the 'under' in its last game in Chicago on Monday night. However, this is a true 'get right' spot against a Hawks squad that ranks dead last in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. Note that over that same stretch, no team ranks higher in pace rating than the Bucks. While Atlanta likes to push the pace as well, and sits right behind the Bucks in pace rating over its last five contests, I'm not sure it will be able to find much success given Milwaukee ranks best in the league in defensive rating over that same stretch. Atlanta's offensive efficiency is lagging right now as it ranks 26th in offensive rating over its last five games. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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11-18-19 | Thunder v. Clippers -9.5 | 88-90 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Oklahoma City at 10:35 pm et on Monday. This is a favorable spot for the Clippers as they aim to build off of Saturday's incredible 150-point outburst against Atlanta. That win snapped a two-game skid for Los Angeles so this is not time to get complacent. Note that the Thunder check in 17th in offensive rating and 25th in defensive rating over their last five games. That's not to mention their less than impressive 19th standing in pace rating over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Clips are top-12 in offensive rating and top-3 in defensive rating while also sitting an impressive sixth in pace rating. It should only be a matter of time before L.A. pulls away in this one. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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11-18-19 | Blazers v. Rockets -7 | 108-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Portland at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the surging Rockets as they host the Blazers on Monday night. Portland is coming off a hard-fought road win in San Antonio two nights ago but should find the going a little tougher in this matchup. The Rockets check in top-10 in the league in offensive rating and first overall in defensive rating over their last five games. Not surprisingly they also land top-10 in pace rating. For the Blazers part, they barely land in the top half of the league in offensive rating, bottom-10 in defensive rating, and 16th in pace rating over their last five contests. Take Houston (10*). |
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11-15-19 | Celtics -7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 105-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Friday. This is the start of a five-game western road swing for the Celtics as they look to extend their winning streak to 10 games and I'm confident we'll see them do so in convincing fashion on Friday night. Note that Boston ranks tops in the league in offensive rating over its last five games, and by a considerable margin. Golden State on the other hand sits 28th over that same stretch. Really the only thing the Warriors have going for them right now is the fact that they've been pushing the tempo, sitting 12th in pace rating over their last five contests, but that should only open the door for the Celtics to really get loose offensively. Boston is in the top half of the league in defensive rating over its last five games while Golden State is just one spot shy of pulling up the rear, sitting 29th in that department. Take Boston (10*). |
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11-06-19 | Bucks +1 v. Clippers | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I fully expect to see the Bucks take it to the Clippers on Wednesday night at Staples Center. Milwaukee checks in ranking first in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating over its last five games. It also ranks ninth in the league in pace rating over that same stretch. Meanwhile, the Clippers sit in the middle of the pack in both offensive and defensive rating over their last five games and bottom-eight in pace rating. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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10-30-19 | Pacers v. Nets -3.5 | 118-108 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Indiana at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Pacers are off to a winless start through three games and I don't see them finally getting into the win column in Brooklyn on Wednesday. Indiana checks in a miserable 22nd in the league in offensive rating and it has been even worse at the defensive end of the floor, ranking 25th in defensive rating. That's not to mention the fact the Pacers sit second-last in terms of pace rating. The Nets figure to take full advantage, noting that they rank fifth in the league in pace rating while sitting a solid eighth in offensive rating through their first three games. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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10-29-19 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -11.5 | 91-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Memphis at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. I don't like the setup for the Grizzlies in this one as they head to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers. This is an interesting matchup as the Grizzlies rank second in the league in pace rating while the Lakers check in second to last. I see this game going one of two ways. Either the Grizz try to push the tempo and get run out of the gym as the Lakers check in top 10 in the league in offensive rating while the Grizzlies are bottom-eight in defensive rating. Or the Lakers impose their will and slow this game to a crawl while the Memphis 26th ranked offensive rating rears its ugly head. Either way, I look for Los Angeles to cover the number. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-25-19 | Jazz +3 v. Lakers | 86-95 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up for the Jazz as they head to Los Angeles to challenge the overrated Lakers at Staples Center. As I've been harping on all week, preseason results do matter when it comes to the NBA. Note that the Jazz ranked 3rd in offensive rating and 1st in defensive rating during the exhibition slate while also finishing up 7th in terms of pace rating. The Lakers didn't show nearly as well, ranking in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive ratings. The did do a good job of pushing the pace and we saw a similar story unfold in their season-opener against the Clippers, however entering last night's action (realizing it's very early) they rated in the bottom-third of the league in offensive rating. The Jazz are top five in both offensive and defensive rating through a game. Take Utah (10*). |
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10-25-19 | Raptors +3 v. Celtics | 106-112 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The defending champion Raptors are going to get everyone's best shot this season but so far so good, as they survived their opening night test against the Zion-less Pelicans at home. As I've been preaching throughout the first week of the regular season, preseason results do matter in the NBA. Note that the Raptors wrapped up the exhibition slate ranking in the league's top 10 in offensive rating and top 4 in defensive rating. The Celtics on the other hand were a miserable 29th in terms of offensive rating and 19th in defensive rating over the course of the preseason. Despite being involved in an overtime fight with the Pelicans, the Raptors still showed well at both ends of the floor, ranking sixth in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating in early returns this season. This is a big test for the champs but I look for them to handle it well. Take Toronto (10*). |
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10-23-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -7.5 | 119-110 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. As I noted in last night's analysis of two opening night totals winners, the preseason does matter when it comes to the NBA, at least to some extent. Here, I look for the Pacers to run the Pistons out of the gym. Note that the Pacers ranked top 11 in both offensive and defensive rating and also checked in fourth in terms of pace rating during the exhibition slate. The Pistons on the other hand finished bottom 10 in offensive rating, 27th in defensive rating and a miserable tie for 29th in pace rating. Tough spot for Detroit to open the campaign here. Take Indiana (10*). |
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06-13-19 | Raptors +3 v. Warriors | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 48 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Golden State at 9:07 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors wasted an opportunity to win an NBA title on their home floor on Monday night but I don't expect them to do the same in Oakland on Thursday night. Toronto didn't put forth its best effort but perhaps that was to be expected against a desperate Warriors squad in Game 5. This was never going to be easy and the Raps are fully aware of that. I like the resolve we've seen from Toronto in these playoffs, particularly on the road, and I'm confident we'll see it ultimately prevail in Game 6 on Thursday. It's worth noting that very little went right for the Raps yet they still managed to hold a six-point lead late in the fourth quarter on Monday. Danny Green, Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry combined to shoot 1-for-14 from beyond the arc in that game. In fact, the entire team connected on just eight three-pointers. Toronto did hold a considerable edge at the free throw line in that game - something that we'll likely see reverse here in Oakland. With that being said, I look for the Raptors to do a better job of locking down defensively on Klay Thompson, forcing Steph Curry to shoulder most of the load in this one. With Kevin Durant sidelined again, the Warriors come up short here. Take Toronto (10*). |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Toronto at 9:07 pm et on Friday. Everyone is quick to hand this series to the Raptors following their dominant victory in Game 3 in Oakland on Wednesday night. While we did win with the Raptors in that game (and the Warriors in Game 2), I'm not about to consider this series over and done with. The Warriors are a veteran team with a championship pedigree and I fully expect to see them bounce back and deliver their best effort of the series on Friday night. Of course Golden State knows that it needs to get a win here as earning a victory in Toronto in Game 5 will be a tall task. The Warriors got nothing from anyone not named Steph Curry in Game 3, with Shaun Livingston (in place of Klay Thompson) and DeMarcus Cousins really disappointing with a combined 2-for-11 shooting effort. There's a good chance Thompson will be back for this one, but even if he's not, I still expect a lot more from Golden State across the board. The Raptors aren't going to shoot the lights out again, nor do I expect them to convert at such a high rate from the free throw line again (20-of-21 in Game 3). This is a game the Warriors need, and when you consider the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 9-0 against the spread in the Raptors last nine contests, I'll lay the points with Golden State here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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06-05-19 | Raptors +6 v. Warriors | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 48 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Golden State at 9:07 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Warriors in Game 2 of this series on Sunday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Raptors as the scene shifts to Oakland on Wednesday. Note that this series is even at three games apiece going back to the start of the 2017-18 season with the underdog going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. The Raptors managed to win outright here in Oakland in their lone regular season meeting this year, despite missing Kawhi Leonard. The Warriors had the services of Curry, Thompson and Durant for that one. We're not going to see the Raptors shoot as poorly as they did in Game 2 on Sunday. The Warriors played with a real sense of urgency at the defensive end of the floor in that game. Here, I look for Toronto to respond with a strong defensive effort of its own. Golden State may get Kevin Durant back in the lineup for this one, but I believe that's already been factored into the line. Most are quick to count out the Raptors following Sunday's poor showing. I expect that result to strengthen their resolve heading into Game 3. Take Toronto (10*). |
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06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Toronto at 8:07 pm et on Sunday. The Raptors jumped ahead early and never looked back in the series opener on Thursday delivering the first blow in what I expect to be a long, back-and-forth series. I don't believe the Warriors will be rattled by that result. Golden State didn't play its best game on Thursday and was ultimately undone by a career night from Pascal Siakam. Look for Steve Kerr to make the necessary adjustments as far as the x's and o's go, particularly from a defensive standpoint. I look for the Warriors to bounce back and even this series up at one game apiece as the series shifts back to Oakland. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-30-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors | 109-118 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Toronto at 9:07 pm et on Thursday. I'll keep it simple in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night. The Raptors are going to have an awfully tough time getting back up to the level that saw them rally from a big double-digit deficit in the second half of their series-clinching win against the Bucks last Saturday night. The Warriors have been off for what seems like an eternity now but I don't expect rust to play much of a factor. I'm sure they can't wait to get back on the floor and I actually like the fact that they open the Finals on the road for a change. A date with Kawhi Leonard and the red hot Raptors is not difficult at all to get up for and I think we'll see a complete effort from Golden State here, especially after dropping both regular season meetings with Toronto. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Toronto at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. Jumping out to a big early lead might have been part of the gameplan, but it certainly didn't work out in the Bucks favor on Thursday night as they let the Raptors back into the game and then Toronto took full control thanks to an all-world performance from Kawhi Leonard in the fourth quarter. While the Raptors bandwagon has filled up in a hurry, I'm not sure that's the right move from a betting perspective as the scene shifts back to Toronto on Saturday. Yes, the Raptors fan base is extremely hungry to watch their team finally break through and advance to the NBA Finals and the place will most definitely be 'rocking' on Saturday night. That doesn't guarantee a win, however. The Bucks clearly felt the pressure once things tightened up in Game 5 and I expect the same thing to happen to the Raptors with the weight of seemingly the entire city on their shoulders on Saturday. Going into this series I would have been shocked if you told me that the Bucks wouldn't win a game in Toronto. This is a team that has proven it can win on this floor this season, and one that has proven it can rise to the occasion in hostile environments. This had the feel of a series that was going to go the distance after Game 4 but that sentiment has changed with the Raptors stealing Game 5 on the road. Keep in mind, the Bucks were favored in the last game played on this floor. I'll grab the points with Milwaukee as its season hangs in the balance. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -7 | 105-99 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Toronto at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. This is the simple call in Game 5 of this series as the straight-up winner has covered the spread in all of the Bucks playoff games to date and I'm quite confident we'll see Milwaukee bounce back in a big way back at home following a really poor performance in Game 4. The Raptors did what they had to do to even this series up and put some pressure on the Bucks but I'm not sure it's sustainable. Kawhi Leonard has done it all for the Raptors but wasn't called on quite as much in Game 4. He'll be the focal point again in Game 5 but I look for the Bucks to make the necessary adjustments to minimize his impact (as much as possible). I also think we'll see the Milwaukee offense shake loose after getting frustrated by the Raptors defense in Toronto. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-21-19 | Bucks -2 v. Raptors | 102-120 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Toronto at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. This is going to be a popular play on Tuesday but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. I actually don't believe this game is going to be close. The Bucks turned in a pretty awful performance on Sunday night, yet they still managed to push the Raptors to double-overtime and it took a superhuman effort from Kawhi Leonard to earn Toronto the win. Here, I expect to see the Bucks to get off to a much stronger start, and stay composed for four quarters, unlike we saw on Sunday. The Raptors were in a must-win position in Game 3 and while they still desperately need to even this series before the scene shifts back to Milwaukee for Game 5, I'm not sure how much more they have in the tank. Note that the Bucks have played exceptionally well on the road this season, going 31-15. The straight-up winner has covered the spread in all 12 Bucks playoff games to date and I expect that to hold true with Milwaukee winning here. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Toronto at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks got off to a slow start and fell in blowout fashion in their series opener against the Celtics last round but I expect a different story to unfold here as they host the Raptors in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Toronto is just two days removed from a thrilling seventh game victory over Philadelphia. The Raps didn’t exactly look like road warriors in that series against the 76ers and now they’ll face an even tougher challenge against a Bucks squad that can really get out and run at home. While I do believe this will be a competitive series and that the Raptors are capable of winning a game on this floor, I just don’t think this is the spot. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-12-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Toronto at 7 pm et on Sunday. Travel day on Sunday. Full writeups will return on Monday. The Raptors rarely make things easy on themselves in the playoffs and I expect nothing different here. We won with the 76ers in Game 6 on Thursday night and here I simply believe they’re being given too big of a cushion from the oddsmakers. Look for a competitive affair for four quarters. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -7 | 118-113 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday. The books have certainly adjusted the point spread accordingly with Kevin Durant ruled put for the Warriors but that won’t keep me from backing the Rockets once again here. We won with Houston in Game 5 as the Rockets just snuck inside the number. This time around I’m anticipating a more lopsided affair in favor of the home side. I’m just not sure we’ll see Golden State get much more than the 52 combined points it got from Steph Curry and Klay Thompson in Game 5. Knowing that they have Game 7 at home on deck i’m just not sure the desperation will be there for the Warriors. The intimidation factor really does scale back with Durant sidelined. Look for Houston to win this one going away. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2 | 101-112 | Win | 101 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We’ve been on point over the last two games of this series cashing with the Raptors in Game 4 and the over in Game 5. I’ll go with the 76ers in Game 6 on Thursday night as I fully expect to see them turn in their best effort of the series with their backs against the wall. This has had the look of a seven-game series all the way and while the Raptors certainly came up big with a blowout win last time out that was a pretty desperate spot for them as while the series was tied they simply couldn’t afford to go down 3-2 heading to Philadelphia. Expect the 76ers to play with that desperation On Thursday. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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05-08-19 | Rockets +6 v. Warriors | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I do believe the Rockets are capable of winning a game here in Oakland in this series and having evened things up at two games apiece, Wednesday could be their night. I'm really not sure the Warriors are going to perform much better offensively after getting 64 points from Steph Curry and Kevin Durant in a four-point loss in Game 4. Sure, they can get more from Klay Thompson but I do expect to see Houston do a good job once again of limiting the Warriors ability to get out and run and generate open looks. Keep in mind, the Rockets won twice on this floor during the regular season. I'll grab all the points I can get with Houston in this pivotal Game 5. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-05-19 | Raptors +2 v. 76ers | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Philadelphia at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. Everyone has seemingly left the Raptors for dead after dropping back-to-back games to go down 2-1 in this series, with their Game 3 loss coming in particularly uninspiring fashion. I do expect to see Toronto bounce back on Sunday afternoon, however. Kyle Lowry in particular is in desperate need of a response following a complete no-show in Game 3 and I'm confident we'll see him come up big in his hometown. The Raptors are expected to be without Pascal Siakam for this one, which is certainly key, but that's already been factored into this line. I look for Toronto to do a much better of job of turning this into a slugfest. It was essentially a one-man team with Kawhi Leonard doing all of the heavy lifting in Game 3, but even with little to no support from his teammates, the Raps were still within striking distance heading into the fourth quarter. Expect a better all-around performance here. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-04-19 | Warriors +4 v. Rockets | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Houston at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. This could still turn out to be a long series but I believe the Rockets are simply laying too many points on Saturday night. The first two games certainly could have gone either way with Golden State winning by four and six points. The Rockets are now actually 4-2 ATS against the Warriors this season. Golden State ranks first in offensive rating in the playoffs and while the Rockets have been tough defensively here at home, and will undoubtedly bring their best effort on Saturday night, I have to go with the value being offered to back the superior squad. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -2 | 123-116 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Celtics are giving all the respect in the world to the Bucks, and rightfully so after Milwaukee answered back following an embarrassing series-opening loss at home. Here, I look for Boston to be the team to bounce back after a beatdown in Game 2. The Bucks have been the cream of the crop in the Eastern Conference this season but there's no question the Celtics are going to be a tough out. I like the spot here as there's really not a great deal of pressure on Boston after it earned a split in Milwaukee. It would have been a different story if the C's were returning home in an 0-2 hole, but instead they're very much in the series, and I'm confident we'll see them play loose and take the play to the Bucks on Friday night. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-02-19 | Raptors -1 v. 76ers | 95-116 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors are coming off arguably their worst performance of the playoffs to date in Game 2 of this series as they came out with no energy and were never able to recover as the 76ers evened the series up at one game apiece. Despite getting outrebounded 52-36 and spotting the 76ers 26 free throws compared to their own 15, the Raps still only lost by five points. Toronto actually managed to outscored Philadelphia in terms of both points in the paint (44-38) and on the fast break (18-13). It was really Toronto's usually reliable bench that let it down in Game 2. The Raps were actually + points with all five of their starters on the floor but outscored badly with their bench in the game. Toronto has been a quality road team all season and I don't believe there will be any sort of intimidation factor at play here. Take Toronto (10*). |
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04-27-19 | Spurs +6 v. Nuggets | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Denver at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Spurs as they try to close out the Nuggets on Saturday night in Denver. I'm not sure we're going to see Denver improve much on its 103-point performance in Game 5. Yes, the Nuggets shot poorly from beyond the arc, but I am confident the Spurs can replicate their defensive performance here. This entire series has really been played at the Spurs preferred pace. So far in the playoffs, these two teams rank in the bottom two in terms of pace rating. The two teams have basically been mirror images of one another as far as both offensive and defensive ratings go. The favorite has covered in back-to-back games entering this one, but I look for that trend to reverse on Saturday. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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04-26-19 | Warriors -9.5 v. Clippers | 129-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Clippers have had the edge in this series from a betting perspective, going 3-2 ATS through the first five games and we've been on board with them for two of those victories. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears, however, as the Warriors certainly have that extra gear they can go to, and I'm certain they don't want to drag this series out any longer than it already has. The pressure is certainly on for Golden State to finish things off here after watching the Rockets take care of the Jazz and earn some welcome rest. The Clippers are deserving of a lot of credit for giving the Warriors all they handle but I don't think we'll see Golden State settle into the sort of lull it has displayed for stretches in Games 2 and 5. Take Golden State (10*). |
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04-24-19 | Jazz v. Rockets -8 | 93-100 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Jazz in their outright victory to stave off elimination on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and lay the points with the Rockets as they return home looking to close out Utah on Wednesday night. It was an off game for the Rockets to be sure, as they shot the ball poorly from all over the floor. Meanwhile, the Jazz turned in what was their most complete performance of the series to date, which was not surprising given the circumstances. With no interest in getting stretched out any further in this series, look for the Rockets to deliver the knockout blow on Wednesday night at home. Take Houston (10*). |
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04-22-19 | Rockets v. Jazz +2.5 | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Houston at 10:35 pm et on Monday. After the Jazz were favored in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night, the line has flipped in advance of Game 4 - not surprising given the Rockets can deliver the knockout blow to Utah on Monday night in Salt Lake City. I don't expect the Jazz to go down without a fight, however, and will grab all the points I can get with them as they make their last stand on Monday. The Rockets have now won five straight meetings in this series but the Jazz do have two wins to their credit over Houston this season. There were certainly positives to take away from Saturday's loss, the least of which being the fact that Utah was in the game right down to the final whistle, actually leading but as many as eight points, and carrying a two-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. The Jazz won't shoot as poorly from the three-point line as they did in Game 3 (12-of-41). Look for that to be a difference-maker in this one. Take Utah (10*). |
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04-21-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +9.5 | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Clippers in Game 2 of this series but stayed away in Game 3 as the Warriors bounced back in a big way. Golden State is still one of the worst bets in the NBA and I won't hesitate to fade it again as it looks to grab a commanding 3-1 lead in the series. Los Angeles couldn't have played any worse in Game 3 as it shot just 37% from the field including 22% from beyond the arc. That wasn't unexpected as the Clips suffered a major hangover after that huge 31-point rally in Game 2. Here, I look for L.A. to get off to a better start and hang with the Warriors for four quarters. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-20-19 | 76ers v. Nets +2 | 112-108 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Philadelphia at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. I like the Nets to bounce back after dropping consecutive games to fall behind in this series. The 76ers were without Joel Embiid on Friday night but still managed to breeze past the Nets. It wasn't a focused or nearly desperate enough effort from the underdog Nets, but I expect to see them show a lot more pride and determination in what could amount to their last stand at home on Saturday afternoon. Keep in mind, the 76ers are a losing bet overall and just a .500 team on the road this season. The Nets come in off back-to-back ATS losses, but haven't dropped three in a row ATS since February 27th to March 2nd. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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04-19-19 | Raptors v. Magic +5 | 98-93 | Push | 0 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The oddsmakers are calling for a competitive affair between the Raptors and Magic on Friday night, and I'll side with them in this spot as Orlando should bounce back following a dreadful performance in Game 2. Despite the Raptors rout on Tuesday night at home, these two teams have split their six matchups this season. I don't believe the Magic will roll over and die with the series tied at one game apiece. Toronto is obviously the superior team, but Orlando has been the far better bet, going 46-37-1 ATS to date compared to the Raps 39-45 ATS mark. Take Orlando (10*). |
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04-18-19 | Nuggets +4 v. Spurs | 108-118 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over San Antonio at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I think we'll see the Nuggets play with some desperation in this game, even though they evened up the series in Game 2. The last game certainly could have gone either way with Denver rallying big in the fourth quarter to not only win but cover the spread. Much will be made of the fact that the Spurs have won 13 straight games at home against the Nuggets but I really don't believe the players will pay any mind to that. Note that Denver fell just one point short (and covered the spread) the last time it played here in San Antonio back in early March. The spread was considerably shorter in that game than the number we're dealing with here. Take Denver (10*). |
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04-17-19 | Jazz +7 v. Rockets | Top | 98-118 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Houston at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. After watching the Warriors stunning collapse in Game 2 of their matchup with the Clippers on Sunday night many have come to the conclusion that they're ripe for the picking in these playoffs, and that same majority also believes that the Rockets will be the team to ultimately dethrone the perennial champs. That's a narrative I believe is in play here with most forgetting that the Rockets still have some work to do before that, even if the opener of this series was no contest. I'm confident we'll see Utah bounce back with a much better effort on Wednesday night in Houston. This isn't a Jazz squad that rolled over at the end of the regular season. Utah entered the playoffs with some positive vibes and having split four regular season matchups with the Rockets, including a win here on this floor, I don't believe they'll be intimidated by the 0-1 hole, or the fact that they dropped Game 1 in blowout fashion. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Jazz here. Take Utah (10*). |
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04-16-19 | Thunder +2 v. Blazers | 94-114 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Portland at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers prevailed in a hard-fought series opener on Sunday but I fully expect to see the Thunder answer back and steal home court advantage with a victory on Tuesday night. There's no intimidation factor at play here as the Thunder have already won two games on this floor since the start of 2019. And there's no reason for Oklahoma City to be rattled after Game 1. After all, the Thunder aren't likely to shoot as poorly from the three-point line again (5-for-33 in Game 1). There were plenty of positives for the Thunder to take away from that loss as they outrebounded the Blazers, nearly doubled them in fast break points and also had a 14-point edge in the paint. This has all the makings of a long, back-and-forth series. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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04-15-19 | Clippers +13.5 v. Warriors | 135-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 10:30 pm et on Monday. The Warriors put together an outstanding performance in Game 1 of this series on Saturday but I believe it's going to be tough for them to repeat that effort against what will obviously be a highly-motivated Clippers squad on Monday night. A lot of the same reasoning from Saturday's play still applies here. It's not as if the Clips were completely outclassed for four quarters on Saturday, they know they can hang with the Warriors, just as they did in an extremely close two-point game right here on this floor back in December (the Clips also defeated the Warriors at home back in November). Despite their blowout win in Game 1, the Warriors are still a losing bet on the season by a considerable margin. Look for the Clips to hang tough(er) here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-13-19 | Clippers +13 v. Warriors | Top | 104-121 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Clippers got steamrolled by the Warriors in a spot where many expected them to compete less than a week ago and now we’re dealing with an inflated pointspread as a result. Keep in mind, that was a competitive game until halftime, before the wheels came off for the Clips and the Warriors put up a 42-spot in the third quarter. From a high-level perspective, I don’t think a Western Conference title is going to come quite as easy for the Warriors as it has in years’ past. We’ve certainly seen chinks in the Dubs’ armor over the course of the season and to put it simply, they’ve been one of the worst ATS bets in the entire league. Conversely, few expected much out of the Clippers this season and while they stumbled down the stretch, there’s no question it has been a successful campaign, and I fully expect to see them play with a ‘nothing to lose’ mentality here in the opening round. I won’t call for an outright victory in Saturday’s series-opener, but I do look for the Clips to give the Warriors all they can handle in Oakland. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-13-19 | Magic v. Raptors -8.5 | 104-101 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Orlando at 5 pm et on Saturday. The Magic have had to scratch and claw their way for the better part of the last three months to just get into the NBA Playoffs and what do they earn for their troubles? A date with the second-ranked Raptors, a team that is not only supremely talented, but also highly-motivated to make this ‘the year’ that they finally get over the hump and win the Eastern Conference. I liked the way the Raptors didn’t ease off the gas pedal down the stretch, winning seven of their last eight games, including a 20-point rout of Minnesota on the second-last night of the regular season. During that stretch was also a 12-point win over these same Magic, a team that had gotten the better of them here in Toronto in late February (we won with the Magic as a big underdog in a 15-point outright win). The Raptors know that nothing is going to be handed to them, especially against a real tough-out of a first round opponent. With that being said, we’re dealing with a single-digit pointspread here, unlike the openers for the Bucks and Warriors, two other teams that I would certainly put the Raptors near or in the same class as. Much has been made of the Raptors brutal track record both SU and ATS in playoff openers, but I believe we see a different story unfold this year. Take Toronto (10*). |
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04-09-19 | Grizzlies v. Pistons -10 | Top | 93-100 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Memphis at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Pistons on Tuesday night. Detroit is reeling right now, on the heels of four straight losses. Keep in mind, it has faced a tough schedule, with a home-and-home with the Pacers followed by a trip to Oklahoma City and a home game against Charlotte. Here, the Pistons catch a break hosting a beat up Grizzlies squad that is simply playing out the string, and fresh off an overtime loss to Dallas two nights ago. Despite dropping four straight games, the Pistons still rank in the top half of the league in terms of defensive rating over their last five contests. The Grizzlies on the other hand sit in the bottom-third of the league in both offensive and defensive rating over that same stretch. We're laying a generous helping of points here, but I believe the number is warranted. Take Detroit (10*). |
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04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia -1 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
NCAAB Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Texas Tech at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We cashed a ticket with Auburn in its near-miss against Virginia on Saturday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Cavaliers as they take on Texas Tech with the National Championship hanging in the balance on Monday night. This is all about the redemption story for Virginia as it looks to come full circle after being eliminated at the hands of a 16-seed in the opening round of last year's tournament. While Texas Tech has gone on what many consider to be a 'Cinderella run' in this tournament, the fact is, the Red Raiders are a three-seed that haven't really exceeded expectations by that wide of a margin. They're deserving of being here and should be able to give Virginia a run. With that being said, I simply don't see Texas Tech having many advantages here, as Virginia will be more than happy to slug it out with the Red Raiders for 40 minutes. The Cavaliers defense has come up big time and time again in this tournament and I anticipate more of the same on Monday night. Take Virginia (10*). |
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04-07-19 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Kings | 133-129 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Sacramento at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Pelicans as they travel to Sacramento to face the Kings on Sunday. New Orleans has now lost three games in a row but did manage to push Phoenix to overtime last time out. The Pelicans last victory actually came against these same Kings on March 28th. Sacramento has stumbled down the stretch, dropping four of its last six games, with three of those losses coming by double-digits. The Pelicans rank 12th in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. There's not a lot separating these two squads over that stretch in terms of defensive rating or pace rating. This has been a competitive series this season, with the Pelicans taking two of three meetings. The lone game the Kings did win over New Orleans came by just five points. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-06-19 | 76ers -9.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Bulls are coming off a rare victory last time out, a narrow one-point win over the lowly Wizards. That was their first win in six games so there's no reason to start planning the parade. The 76ers have dropped three games in a row, both SU and ATS. I really feel Philadelphia can run Chicago right of of the gym tonight, noting that despite its recent struggles to find the win column, Philly ranks third in the league in pace rating over its last five contests. The Sixers are also in the top half of the league in offensive rating over that stretch while the Bulls check in a miserable 28th. Both teams are banged up but Philadelphia is in better position to come up with a complete effort here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-06-19 | Auburn +6 v. Virginia | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Auburn plus the points over Virginia at 6:09 pm et on Saturday. Not a lot of respect is being given to the Auburn Tigers based on this pointspread. The Tigers' Final Four run has been impressive to say the least as they've taken down Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky over their last three games. I don't need to tell you that's no easy task. I don't believe there's a significant intimidation factor at play here against Virginia, a team that has been bludgeoning the opposition with its defense, but can always go ice cold offensively at the drop of a hat. I'm not sure that the Cavaliers have the ability to ever completely put this game away, so I'll gladly grab the generous helping of points with the upstart Tigers as they aim to play giant-killer one more time. Take Auburn (10*). |
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04-05-19 | Spurs v. Wizards +6.5 | Top | 129-112 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over San Antonio at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This may look like a gimme for the Spurs to 'get right' following an uneven stretch, but I believe they're in for a battle with the Wizards. San Antonio has won just three times in its last eight games and only one of those SU wins came ATS as well. Meanwhile, the Wizards returned home from what should be considered a successful 2-2 road trip only to lose to the Bulls (by a single point). They still check in 3-1 ATS over their last four contests. Over their last five games, the Wiz rank seventh in the league in pace rating. They're just 20th in offensive rating over that same stretch, but keep in mind that's only one spot behind the Spurs. In terms of defensive rating, Washington is right around the middle of the league (at 16th) over its last five games while San Antonio sits 24th. The Wiz hung 119 points on the Spurs back in January, but still lost. Expect a competitive affair here. Take Washington (10*). |
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04-03-19 | Knicks v. Magic -12 | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Magic continue to exceed expectations at every turn and while they are coming off a double-digit loss in Toronto on Monday, I look for them to bounce back against the lowly Knicks on Wednesday night. Orlando checks in just outside the top 10 in the league in offensive rating over its last five games and should feast on a non-existent Knicks defense here. While the Magic's defense has lagged a bit of late, it's important to note that they're coming off a four-game road trip that closed with matchups against the Pistons, Pacers and Raptors. The Knicks are coming off a rare win on Monday night against the Bulls, but they should be right back into 'tank mode' on Wednesday night. There's really no benefit in winning these games down the stretch and it has showed with New York dropping six straight prior to Monday's victory. The Knicks did take the most recent meeting in this series, but prior to that it was three straight blowout wins for the Magic. Take Orlando (10*). |
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04-01-19 | Cavs v. Suns -2 | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Cleveland at 10:05 pm et on Monday. We cashed yet another ticket fading the Suns on Saturday night against Memphis but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back them as they host the lowly Cavs on Monday night. The Suns have certainly gone in the tank lately, but so have the Cavs. It's been over two weeks since Phoenix last won a game but it's worth noting it has played only six games since, and it hasn't faced the easiest of schedules. The Cavs enter riding a five-game losing streak and save for a six-point loss in San Antonio, haven't really been close in their last four contests. Tonight's game will mark their fourth game in the last seven nights, in a fourth different city. I'll lay the short number with the Suns as they finally notch a win on this homestand. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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03-31-19 | Grizzlies +9 v. Clippers | 96-113 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Grizzlies in Phoenix last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as they head to Los Angeles to face the Clippers. Memphis certainly hasn't quite on the season, as evidenced by its even 3-3 record over its last six games. The Grizzlies have gone 4-2 ATS over that stretch. The Clippers are fresh off a blowout win here at home, but that came against the lowly Cavs. Their previous three home wins came by seven points or less. This has been a tightly-contested series with six of the last seven meetings decided by single digits, with the only double-digit margin coming by way of a 10-point Memphis victory earlier this season. Take Memphis (10*). |
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03-31-19 | Auburn v. Kentucky -4.5 | 77-71 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over Auburn at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. The injury to Chuma Okeke is obviously key in this matchup. While it's certainly been reflected in the pointspread, I'm not sure enough weight has been given. He's been doing it all for the Tigers, and in what could become a bit more of a slugfest than the Tigers are used to on Sunday, his rebounding ability will truly be missed. The Wildcats didn't get a lot of press entering this tournament, a little bit odd for John Calipari's program. They've quietly gone about their business and are now one win away from the Final Four. The Wildcats are one of the best shooting teams in the nation, knocking down just shy of 48% of their shots, but it's been their defense that has really come up big in this tourney, allowing 44, 56 and 58 points in three games. Take Kentucky (10*). |
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03-30-19 | Grizzlies -1.5 v. Suns | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Suns have gone in the 'tank' so to speak over the last couple of weeks. Their lone win over their last eight games came in a wild overtime game that was essentially handed to them in New Orleans two weeks ago (we won with Phoenix on that night). The Grizzlies have faced a pretty tough recent schedule but have managed to go 3-2 ATS over their last five contests. Note that they rank ahead of the Suns in terms of both offensive and defensive rating over that stretch. Both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries. I simply feel the Grizzlies are in better position to battle through on Saturday night. Take Memphis (10*). |
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03-30-19 | Purdue +4.5 v. Virginia | 75-80 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
NCAAB Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Purdue plus the points over Virginia at 8:49 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Boilermakers as they look to continue their quasi-Cinderella run in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday night. Top-seeded Virginia has looked good, but not great in this tournament. The Cavaliers will be in for a stiff challenge here as the Boilers have been playing with a nothing to lose mentality since the start of this tournament. In what projects to be a relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday night (unlike Purdue's wild overtime win over Tennessee on Thursday), I'm comfortable grabbing the nearly handful of points in a game that could very well go right down to the wire. Take Purdue (10*). |
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03-29-19 | Wizards v. Jazz -12 | 124-128 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Washington at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The Jazz are really rounding into form with the playoffs quickly approaching, winners of eight of their last nine games overall, going 7-2 ATS over that stretch. Over their last five games, the Jazz rank in a tie for eighth in the league in pace rating, second in offensive rating and third in defensive rating. It doesn't get much better than that. Meanwhile, the Wizards are, or at least should be in tank mode. They're coming off a win over the lowly Suns in Phoenix, but that was just their first victory in their last six contests. Over their last five games, the Wiz rank 19th in pace rating, a reasonable 12th in offensive rating but 27th in defensive rating. I don't believe they can stay within arm's reach of the rolling Jazz on Friday night. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-29-19 | LSU v. Michigan State -6 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan State minus the points over LSU at 7:09 pm et on Friday. There's a class difference between these two teams that I'm not sure is being properly accounted for in this pointspread. LSU is here thanks to a truly ugly win over Maryland last Saturday. Save for a slow start against Bradley in the opening round, the Spartans haven't really been tested. Over their last three halves of basketball, they've outscored the opposition by a whopping 112-80 margin. Defense, and the poise of Cassius Winston should ultimately be the difference in this matchup as I have Michigan State winning by a comfortable margin. Take Michigan State (10*). |
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03-28-19 | Oregon v. Virginia -8 | 49-53 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Oregon at 9:57 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Cavaliers in the Round of 32 and I wont' hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they take on upstart Oregon on Thursday night. The Ducks are quite simply the hottest bet in the tournament, entering this game riding a 10-game SU and ATS winning streak. However, without question this will be their toughest test since the start of that stretch. Virginia has looked extremely focused in this tournament so far, which is no real surprise after last year's stunning opening round loss to 16-seed UMBC. I still don't think the Cavaliers are getting as much attention as they should be - keep in mind, they're now an impressive 24-10 ATS this season. Virginia is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in this series, with its last victory over Oregon coming back in 2011. Expect to see the same story unfold on Thursday night. Take Virginia (10*). |
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03-28-19 | Raptors -11.5 v. Knicks | 117-92 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over New York at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors have certainly been playing an uneven brand of basketball lately and enter this contest on a three-game ATS losing streak. With that being said, I believe this is a blowout in the making, much like back on March 18th when the Raps rolled past the Knicks by 36 points. Despite their lack of recent success, the Raps check in ranked sixth in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. Offensively, it's a similar story as they rank seventh in the NBA over that same stretch. By contrast, the Knicks are where you would expect them to be in terms of defensive rating, pulling up the rear in 30th spot over their last five contests. Their offensive rating hasn't been quite as bad, but they still check in 21st. If there's an opponent the Raptors are comfortable playing against when they're back on their heels a bit, it's the Knicks, as they've gone 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Take Toronto (10*). |
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03-27-19 | Blazers -7 v. Bulls | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I don't like the spot for the Bulls here as they return home off a reasonably close loss in Toronto last night. Chicago is in full-on tank mode as far as I'm concerned. They do have a couple of recent wins but one of those came by way of overtime against the lowly Wizards and the other came against one of the league's worst teams in the Suns (we won with the Bulls in that game). Portland is undermanned to be sure with C.J. McCollum already sidelined and now Josef Nurkic out of action as well. Seth Curry and Enes Kanter will be looked upon to pick up the slack with the former already having done so over the last several games. I expect to see the Blazers take care of business here, noting they rank fourth in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. By contrast, the Bulls are 29th in that category over that stretch. Take Portland (10*). |
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03-26-19 | Hawks +1.5 v. Pelicans | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. While the Pelicans are in full-on tank mode right now (whether by choice or not), the Hawks have actually shown some fight, and enter this game off back-to-back wins over two quality opponents in the Jazz and 76ers. In fact, Atlanta has been one of the best bets in the entire league in recent weeks, going 12-4 ATS over its last 16 games. It's also worth noting that the Hawks rank first in the league in pace rating over their last five games. While their offensive rating leaves something to be desired, I do think they can take advantage of a Pelicans squad that has been even worse in that regard, ranking 21st in the league in defensive rating over their last five contests. The Hawks are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against the Pelicans since the start of 2017. While it's never comfortable backing a team that sits 15 games under .500 on the road, I believe a play is warranted here. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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03-25-19 | Nets +6.5 v. Blazers | 144-148 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with the Nets, who will be shooting their third straight win on Monday night in Portland. Despite allowing 118 and 112 points in their last two games, both victories, the Nets still check in top 10 in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. They catch the Blazers in a favorable spot here. Brooklyn is coming off two days of rest while Portland escaped with a narrow five-point win over Detroit on Saturday and will have an eye on a four-game road trip that begins on Wednesday night in Chicago. While the Blazers have won six of their last seven games it's worth noting that four of those victories came by single-digit margins. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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03-24-19 | Oklahoma v. Virginia -10.5 | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Oklahoma at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. Virginia got a bit of a scare from Gardner-Webb in the opening round of this tournament on Friday but that shouldn't really come as a surprise, as the Cavaliers have been slow starters all season. I expect to see the Cavaliers come out with more focus this time around as they face a much tougher challenge against the Sooners. Oklahoma had no trouble at all cruising past Ole Miss in its tournament opener, scoring 95 points in a rout. It was one of the most impressive performances of the entire opening round. The Sooners will be involved in a much different game here, however, as the Cavaliers will of course look to slow things down and play to their strengths. Look for Virginia's suffocating defense to ultimately win out as the Cavs pull away for a convincing victory. Take Virginia (10*). |
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03-23-19 | Villanova +4 v. Purdue | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
NCAAB Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Villanova plus the points over Purdue at 9 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Wildcats in a game I believe they can win outright. Villanova ultimately failed to cover for us in their tournament opener, settling for a push in a four-point win over St. Mary's. Watching that game I didn't feel that it was quite as close as the final score indicated, however. I'm not sure we've seen Villanova's best game yet, really going back to the start of the Big East Tournament, which it did win. Purdue won and covered, narrowly, against Old Dominion in its Thursday matchup. The Boilermakers are good, but not great, and I really don't think there's any sort of intimidation factor at play here. Give me Jay Wright's defending national champion Wildcats over Matt Painter's Boilers on Saturday night. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-22-19 | Spurs v. Rockets -6 | Top | 105-111 | Push | 0 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston minus the points over San Antonio at 8:05 pm et on Friday. With the Spurs having won nine of their last 10 games overall this one will be pegged as a showdown between two of the West's best teams on Friday night. Keep in mind, San Antonio has played eight of its last 10 contests at home. The Spurs are just 13-22 on the road this season, where they rank a miserable 28th in the league in defensive rating. The Rockets are coming off a tough overtime loss in Memphis two nights ago, but had gone a perfect 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS over their previous three games. This hasn't been a favorable matchup for the Spurs in Houston, with the Rockets winning their last three meetings on this floor by 15, 16 and 7 points. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-22-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Kansas State -4.5 | Top | 70-64 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
NCAAB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Cal-Irvine at 2 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Wildcats on Friday afternoon. Cal-Irvine has become a trendy upset pick here in round one of the NCAA Tournament, largely due to an injury to Dean Wade of Kansas State. The fact is, that Wade injury has essentially been common knowledge since before this line was released. In other words, it has already been factored into the pointspread, which I believe is simply too short. It's easy to forget that Kansas State went on a serious run in this tournament last year, winning three games before bowing out to Cinderella team Loyola-Chicago. Most of the players from that Wildcats squad are back this year and I believe they come in with a chip on their shoulder after bowing out of the Big 12 Tournament at the hands of Iowa State last weekend. The Wildcats have lost only three games since the start of February with two of those coming against Iowa State and the other against Kansas. Cal-Irvine hasn't lost since January 16th but has it really been tested? The Anteaters are without a doubt a formidable opponent but I like Kansas State to ultimately pull away for the win and cover. Take Kansas State (10*). |
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03-22-19 | Iowa v. Cincinnati -4 | 79-72 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Iowa at 12:15 pm et on Friday. I believe Cincinnati is a vastly underrated commodity entering this tournament. Yes, the Bearcats have limped to a 14-20 ATS mark this season but they got themselves on a nice run in the AAC Tournament, culminating with an upset win over Houston in the final. Cincinnati checks in having delivered the cash in two of its last three contests. Iowa has just one win to its credit over its last six games and that came against an awful Illinois squad. The Illini's only other win over their last eight games came by way of overtime at home against another non-NCAA Tournament team in Indiana. As bad as the Bearcats have been ATS this season, the Hawkeyes have been even worse, going 13-20 ATS. Look for Mick Cronin's Bearcats to perform above expectations in their first game of the tournament. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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03-21-19 | Pistons v. Suns +7.5 | 118-98 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Detroit at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the points with the Suns on Thursday night. Save for a win over the Raptors on Sunday, the Pistons have been struggling lately. They check in last in the league in pace rating over their last five games while also sitting a miserable 29th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating over that stretch. The Suns continue to force the issue, ranking fifth in pace rating and I believe they can give some headaches in this one. While Phoenix is by no means known for its defensive prowess, it does sit a reasonable 15th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. We've actually cashed tickets in each of the Suns last two games, winning with them in New Orleans on Saturday before fading them against the Bulls at home on Monday. Look for a solid bounce-back effort against a Pistons squad that is having a tough time on the road. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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03-21-19 | St. Mary's v. Villanova -4 | Top | 57-61 | Push | 0 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Villanova minus the points over St. Mary's at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. The St. Mary's Gaels are coming off a high-profile upset win over Gonzaga to secure the WCC Tournament title last week. They clearly caught the Bulldogs looking ahead to a one-seed in this tournament, and also napping a bit after taking the two regular season matchups with relative ease. I like the way the well-coached Villanova Wildcats come into this game after gutting out a couple of tight wins to wrap up another Big East Tournament championship last weekend. Despite being a marked team as the defending national champions, the Wildcats have still managed to post a solid 20-14 ATS record this season. The last time these two schools met was the 2010 NCAA Tournament and we actually cashed with the Gaels in an outright underdog victory in that Round of 32 affair. That was a team led by Matthew Dellavedova, Omar Samhan and Mickey McConnell. The line here is similar, but I believe the gap is wider favoring the Wildcats. Villanova may not be poised to repeat as national champions, but I do expect it to advance on to the Round of 32 with a convincing victory on Thursday night. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-21-19 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Gonzaga -27.5 | 49-87 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 7:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the one-seed Bulldogs on Thursday as they begin their NCAA Tournament march against Fairleigh Dickinson. There's no need to overthink this one. FDU is used to knocking down close to 50% of its shots but won't come close to approaching that shooting percentage here. Gonzaga has played lock-down defense all season, holding the opposition to just over 65 points per game on below 39% shooting. Sure, the Bulldogs suffered a hiccup in the WCC Tournament championship game, falling to rival St. Mary's but I don't think they lost too much sleep over it. Gonzaga may have got caught looking past the Gaels, but will undoubtedly be up for this one. FDU hasn't lost since February 14th, but that was a 25-point setback, at home no less. This is also a team that lost by 35 points against Rutgers to open the season. The class difference between these two squads is being property represented with this lofty line. Take Gonzaga (10*). |
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03-21-19 | Minnesota v. Louisville -5 | 86-76 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Minnesota at 12:15 pm et on Thursday. I realize that this is going to be a popular pick on Thursday afternoon but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. This Minnesota squad doesn't impress me at all. We're talking about a Gophers team that ultimately posted a losing record in conference play, albeit against a tough Big Ten slate. I really question how much the Gophers have left in the tank right now after looking completely out of sorts in a blowout loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament last week. Much like Minnesota, Louisville limps into this one after getting outclassed by North Carolina in the ACC Tournament. I give the Cardinals the considerable edge at the free throw line and on the glass in this matchup and I think that's ultimately what this game comes down to. Everyone remembers that loss to UNC and a blowout loss at Syracuse in a nationally-televised game back in late February. Outside of those poor showings, the Cards have been solid and while we're only worried about round one, they could be poised to go on a run in this tournament. Take Louisville (10*). |
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03-20-19 | Celtics +3 v. 76ers | 115-118 | Push | 0 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. There's no question the Celtics have had the 76ers number this season and can earn a sweep of the season series with a victory on Wednesday night. The 76ers are playing excellent basketball having not lost since March 8th against Houston but I look for the C's to get the better of them once again. Boston will be highly-motivated for this game coming off a nine-point home loss to the Nuggets on Monday. Prior to that, the Celtics had been playing well, winners of five of their previous six contests. That all got started with a resounding 128-95 win over the Warriors in Oakland back on March 5th. I see this as a similar motivational spot against the rival 76ers. No surprise at all if this isn't the last meeting between these two teams this season. For now I'll give the Celtics the edge in an underdog role. Take Boston (10*). |
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03-19-19 | Nets v. Kings -4 | 123-121 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Brooklyn at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Kings in a rout of the Bulls on Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as Sacramento hosts Brooklyn. The Nets have gone 0-3 on their current road trip, albeit against some tough opposition. While Brooklyn is coming off an ATS cover against the Clippers, it's worth noting that it hasn't notched back-to-back ATS wins since February 23rd and 25th. The Kings enter this game ranked tied for third in the NBA in pace rating over their last five games. While the Nets aren't far behind sitting seventh, the Kings have been making more of their opportunities, ranking 14th in offensive rating over that same stretch while the Nets rank 28th. Brooklyn sits well ahead of Sacramento in defensive rating but that's largely due to an outlier against the Pistons in which it gave up just 75 points last week. The Nets took the first meeting in this series this season by a whopping 29 points but the Kings had won consecutive meetings prior to that. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-18-19 | Bulls +3 v. Suns | 116-101 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the Suns on Saturday as they were essentially handed the game by the Pelicans in the closing seconds. We also cashed a ticket fading the Bulls on Sunday as they were crushed by the Kings in Sacramento. With that being said, I'm confident backing Chicago plus the points on Monday night as it aims to bounce back in Phoenix. The Suns are rolling along right now ATS but this marks the first time they've been favored in a game since March 6th against the Knicks. Keep in mind, they're just 10-24 SU at home this season. The Bulls have actually been slightly better on the road than at home, notching 11 victories as visitors. I'll also point out that Chicago took the lone previous meeting in this series this season by eight points back in November. Take Chicago (10*). |
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03-17-19 | Bulls v. Kings -6.5 | Top | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Chicago at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Kings in this spot. Sacramento has been reeling lately but has also faced a pretty brutal schedule. While I don't generally like to back teams returning home off a road trip on the opposite coast, I do believe we'll see the Kings bounce back here. Note that Sacramento ranks third in the league in pace rating over its last five games and should be able to punish an awful Bulls defense on Sunday. Chicago checks in 29th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. The Bulls are coming off a relatively close seven-point loss against the Clippers but that was only thanks to L.A. taking its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter (it was an 18-point game entering the fourth). Chicago is just 2-5 ATS over its last seven games. The Kings have lost four of their last five SU but have still managed to go 3-1-1 ATS over that stretch. Also note that the Kings took the first meeting in this series this season by 19 points back in December. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-16-19 | Suns +2.5 v. Pelicans | 138-136 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over New Orleans at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Pelicans are really struggling right now, losers of five games in a row and allowing 120+ points in each of their last four contests. They've had their way with the Suns in recent years but I don't feel that holds much bearing here. Phoenix suffered a narrow six-point loss in Houston last night. Keep in mind, they won on the road against the Warriors last Sunday. The Suns certainly don't appear to be a team that's tanking right now, having gone 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS over their last nine games. The Pelicans should have Anthony Davis back tonight but are still missing Jrue Holliday. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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Sean Murphy Basketball Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-23-19 | Bulls +4.5 v. Magic | 95-103 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
12-23-19 | Long Beach State v. Seattle University -4.5 | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
12-23-19 | Canisius v. Siena -5 | Top | 72-73 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
12-22-19 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Lakers | 128-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
12-22-19 | Charlotte -1.5 v. East Carolina | 56-60 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
12-22-19 | Chicago State +26.5 v. Indiana State | 64-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
12-22-19 | Maryland-Eastern Shore +20.5 v. Old Dominion | Top | 52-76 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
12-21-19 | North Carolina -4 v. UCLA | 74-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
12-21-19 | Texas State v. Georgia State -2.5 | 69-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
12-20-19 | Magic +3.5 v. Blazers | 103-118 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
12-20-19 | Lipscomb +11 v. Vermont | 63-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
12-19-19 | Southern Utah v. Long Beach State +1.5 | 84-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
12-19-19 | Lakers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
12-19-19 | Texas State v. Georgia Southern -2 | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
12-18-19 | Celtics -1.5 v. Mavs | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
12-18-19 | North Carolina +13 v. Gonzaga | 81-94 | Push | 0 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
12-18-19 | Canisius +9.5 v. Buffalo | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
12-17-19 | Nets -2 v. Pelicans | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
12-12-19 | Cavs v. Spurs -11 | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
12-11-19 | Lakers v. Magic +7.5 | 96-87 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
12-11-19 | Rockets v. Cavs +11.5 | Top | 116-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
12-06-19 | Lakers v. Blazers +4 | Top | 136-113 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
12-06-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -8 | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
12-03-19 | Lakers v. Nuggets -2 | 105-96 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 48 m | Show | |
12-03-19 | Pistons -2 v. Cavs | 127-94 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show | |
11-22-19 | Hawks +6.5 v. Pistons | 103-128 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
11-20-19 | Pistons v. Bulls -1 | 89-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
11-20-19 | Bucks -11 v. Hawks | 135-127 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
11-18-19 | Thunder v. Clippers -9.5 | 88-90 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
11-18-19 | Blazers v. Rockets -7 | 108-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
11-15-19 | Celtics -7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 105-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
11-06-19 | Bucks +1 v. Clippers | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
10-30-19 | Pacers v. Nets -3.5 | 118-108 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
10-29-19 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -11.5 | 91-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
10-25-19 | Jazz +3 v. Lakers | 86-95 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
10-25-19 | Raptors +3 v. Celtics | 106-112 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
10-23-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -7.5 | 119-110 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
06-13-19 | Raptors +3 v. Warriors | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 48 h 33 m | Show | |
06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
06-05-19 | Raptors +6 v. Warriors | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 48 h 42 m | Show | |
06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
05-30-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors | 109-118 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -7 | 105-99 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
05-21-19 | Bucks -2 v. Raptors | 102-120 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 19 m | Show | |
05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
05-12-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -7 | 118-113 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2 | 101-112 | Win | 101 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
05-08-19 | Rockets +6 v. Warriors | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
05-05-19 | Raptors +2 v. 76ers | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
05-04-19 | Warriors +4 v. Rockets | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -2 | 123-116 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
05-02-19 | Raptors -1 v. 76ers | 95-116 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
04-27-19 | Spurs +6 v. Nuggets | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
04-26-19 | Warriors -9.5 v. Clippers | 129-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
04-24-19 | Jazz v. Rockets -8 | 93-100 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
04-22-19 | Rockets v. Jazz +2.5 | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
04-21-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +9.5 | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
04-20-19 | 76ers v. Nets +2 | 112-108 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
04-19-19 | Raptors v. Magic +5 | 98-93 | Push | 0 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
04-18-19 | Nuggets +4 v. Spurs | 108-118 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
04-17-19 | Jazz +7 v. Rockets | Top | 98-118 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
04-16-19 | Thunder +2 v. Blazers | 94-114 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 29 m | Show | |
04-15-19 | Clippers +13.5 v. Warriors | 135-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
04-13-19 | Clippers +13 v. Warriors | Top | 104-121 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
04-13-19 | Magic v. Raptors -8.5 | 104-101 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
04-09-19 | Grizzlies v. Pistons -10 | Top | 93-100 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia -1 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
04-07-19 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Kings | 133-129 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
04-06-19 | 76ers -9.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
04-06-19 | Auburn +6 v. Virginia | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
04-05-19 | Spurs v. Wizards +6.5 | Top | 129-112 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
04-03-19 | Knicks v. Magic -12 | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
04-01-19 | Cavs v. Suns -2 | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
03-31-19 | Grizzlies +9 v. Clippers | 96-113 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
03-31-19 | Auburn v. Kentucky -4.5 | 77-71 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
03-30-19 | Grizzlies -1.5 v. Suns | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
03-30-19 | Purdue +4.5 v. Virginia | 75-80 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
03-29-19 | Wizards v. Jazz -12 | 124-128 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
03-29-19 | LSU v. Michigan State -6 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
03-28-19 | Oregon v. Virginia -8 | 49-53 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
03-28-19 | Raptors -11.5 v. Knicks | 117-92 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
03-27-19 | Blazers -7 v. Bulls | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
03-26-19 | Hawks +1.5 v. Pelicans | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
03-25-19 | Nets +6.5 v. Blazers | 144-148 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
03-24-19 | Oklahoma v. Virginia -10.5 | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
03-23-19 | Villanova +4 v. Purdue | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
03-22-19 | Spurs v. Rockets -6 | Top | 105-111 | Push | 0 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
03-22-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Kansas State -4.5 | Top | 70-64 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
03-22-19 | Iowa v. Cincinnati -4 | 79-72 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
03-21-19 | Pistons v. Suns +7.5 | 118-98 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
03-21-19 | St. Mary's v. Villanova -4 | Top | 57-61 | Push | 0 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
03-21-19 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Gonzaga -27.5 | 49-87 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
03-21-19 | Minnesota v. Louisville -5 | 86-76 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
03-20-19 | Celtics +3 v. 76ers | 115-118 | Push | 0 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
03-19-19 | Nets v. Kings -4 | 123-121 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
03-18-19 | Bulls +3 v. Suns | 116-101 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
03-17-19 | Bulls v. Kings -6.5 | Top | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
03-16-19 | Suns +2.5 v. Pelicans | 138-136 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |