Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-21-19 | Creighton v. Georgetown -1.5 | Top | 91-87 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
NCAAB Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgetown minus the points over Creighton at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the short number with Georgetown as it hosts a reeling Creighton squad on Monday night. The Blue Jays have lost four straight games and are giving up a whopping 82 points per game on just shy of 49% shooting on the road this season. Meanwhile, Georgetown will play with a lot of motivation here having dropped three straight meetings in this series, while also coming off a narrow 74-71 home loss to Marquette. The Hoyas are 9-3 at home this season, averaging north of 87 ppg on 45.6% shooting on this floor. Take Georgetown (10*). |
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01-19-19 | Dayton v. St Bonaventure +3 | Top | 89-86 | Push | 0 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
NCAAB Atlantic-10 Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Bonaventure plus the points over Dayton at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Bonnies at home on Saturday afternoon. St. Bonaventure is coming off a double-digit loss at Rhode Island earlier this week but that's no big surprise as it has gone 0-6 on the road this season. Here at home, the Bonnies have been more productive, going 5-2 straight-up. In fact, in their most recent home game they beat St. Joe's by a lopsided 73-47 margin. While they haven't enjoyed much success in this particular matchup, I feel they catch Dayton in a good spot here. The Flyers saw their six-game winning streak come to an end last time out, suffering a narrow 76-71 loss at VCU. The Flyers are now a miserable 1-7 ATS over their last eight contests. Take St. Bonaventure (10*). |
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01-18-19 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2 | 75-61 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Maryland at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Just a huge motivational spot for the Buckeyes here as they try to get back to even in conference play and host the red hot Terps on Friday night. Maryland has reeled off six straight wins but actually knocked down only 16 field goal attempts against Wisconsin earlier this week. Note that four of their last six wins have come at home, and three of those came by four points or less. The Buckeyes are coming off three straight losses but do check in 8-2 SU at home this season, where they average over 80 points per game on just shy of 49% shooting. The Terps have taken four of the last five meetings in this series but the last time they hooked up on this floor, the Buckeyes rolled to a 91-69 win last January. Take Ohio State (10*). |
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01-17-19 | Manhattan v. St. Peter's -6 | 58-56 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Peter's minus the points over Manhattan at 7 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Peacocks as they aim to build off a win over Marist and get past a reeling Manhattan squad on Thursday night. St. Peter's is 2-2 SU but 3-1 ATS in conference play this season and has an excellent opportunity to get back over the .500 mark here. Manhattan is coming off back-to-back blowout road losses in-conference and continues to struggle offensively, shooting below 40% as a team. Poor free throw shooting has really cost the Jaspers as they're connecting on just over 56% of their attempts from the charity stripe. It's also worth noting that Manhattan is allowing opponents to shoot 48% from the field on the road this season. Take St. Peter's (10*). |
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01-16-19 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Warriors | 140-147 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors are fresh off a record-setting offensive performance in a rout in Denver last night but now find themselves in a tough spot returning home on no rest to host a surging Pelicans squad. Keep in mind, Golden State still isn't a good bet on the season having gone 19-25 ATS. The Pelicans haven't been much better but have been sharp lately, going 4-1 ATS over their last five games. They're coming off a key road win over the Clippers in Los Angeles. They haven't been able to stack many road victories on the campaign, but are actually getting outscored by barely over a single point away from home. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-16-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -1.5 | 129-109 | Loss | -118 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Utah at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this spot sets up for the reeling Clippers, who check in having dropped three games in a row both SU and ATS. The Jazz are rolling, fresh off four consecutive wins but have actually dropped the cash in their last two games, and those came against the lowly Bulls and Pistons. Motivation will be high for the Clippers as they have also dropped three straight meetings against the Jazz. Their last win in this series did come right here in Los Angeles where they've gone 14-8 SU this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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01-16-19 | Spurs v. Mavs +1 | 105-101 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs were all the talk last week, capping off an incredible run with a thrilling double-overtime win over the Thunder on national TV. Since then, they've dropped back-to-back games at Oklahoma City and at home against Charlotte. I'm not convinced they'll regain their footing here on Wednesday night as they hit the road to face the upstart Mavs in Dallas. The Mavs are also coming off a loss but it was a close one (by five points) against the Warriors so I'm confident in their ability to bounce back here, noting that they've gone 16-5 straight-up at home this season. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-16-19 | Butler -2 v. DePaul | 87-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Butler minus the points over DePaul at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. Butler is coming off back-to-back conference road losses to fall to 1-3 in conference play. Keep in mind, both of those games could have gone either way with the Bulldogs falling by a single point in each contest. I look for the Bulldogs to bounce back against a DePaul squad they've defeated in nine straight meetings. The Blue Demons are coming off back-to-back wins over Seton Hall and St. John's. Butler checks in winless on the road this season with some disappointing numbers both offensively and defensively, but as I mentioned, they've held their own away from home in conference play and will be highly-motivated to pick up a much-needed victory here on Wednesday night. Take Butler (10*). |
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01-15-19 | Warriors v. Nuggets +2 | 142-111 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. Like the value being offered with the Nuggets as a small home underdog against the Warriors on Tuesday night. Denver actually has the better straight-up record and the vastly superior ATS record in this matchup. Not only that, but the Nuggets have taken five of the last nine meetings in this series. The Warriors are getting plenty of support, however, as they come in on a four-game winning streak. Still they've only managed to go 2-2 ATS over that stretch, dropping the cash in both road games. Denver has been a little uneven lately, and comes off back-to-back ATS losses, but remains a profitable 4-3 ATS over its last seven contests. Take Denver (10*). |
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01-15-19 | Seton Hall v. Providence -1.5 | 63-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence minus the points over Seton Hall at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. Seton Hall has taken three straight meetings in this series but I look for Providence to reverse that trend with a victory on Tuesday night. The Friars come in having dropped three straight games to open conference play. Prior to that they had won three games in a row both SU and ATS. Note that each of their last three losses have been relatively close including a six-point overtime loss at Georgetown last time out. Seton Hall checks in with just three ATS victories over its last eight contests. The Pirates have struggled to contain opposing offenses on the road this season allowing just shy of 74 points per game on 45.8% shooting. Take Providence (10*). |
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01-14-19 | Wisconsin +4 v. Maryland | 60-64 | Push | 0 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin plus the points over Maryland at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with the Badgers as they try to close the gap on Maryland in Big Ten play. Wisconsin is coming off an overtime loss on the road against Purdue last Thursday - marking its third loss in its last four games. Keep in mind, prior to that setback, the Badgers went on the road and won by 19 points as a small favorite at Penn State. Maryland is off to a red hot 5-1 start in conference play but its last two home wins have come by a combined five points. Wisconsin has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. Take Wisconsin (10*). |
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01-11-19 | Iona v. Niagara -1 | 90-95 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Iona at 7 pm et on Friday. We cashed a ticket with ease fading Niagara in its last game, a double-digit loss on the road against Fairfield. That dropped the Purple Eagles to 0-2 in MAAC play this season but I expect them to get into the win column on Friday night as they host Iona. Both of these teams have a strong home-road dichotomy with Iona having yet to win on the road this season, going winless in five tries. The Gaels check in allowing over 91 points per game on 48.6% shooting on the road this season, opening the door for the Purple Eagles to get their offense in gear back at home where they've been a little uneven this season. Take Niagara (10*). |
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01-09-19 | Arizona State v. California +10 | 80-66 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on California plus the points over Arizona State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Arizona State is coming off a blowout home win over Colorado last time out, earning its first victory in Pac-12 play. I expect a bit of a letdown here as a matchup with Cal won't yield a great deal of motivation, noting that the Golden Bears are 0-2 in conference play so far and the Sun Devils swept the season series last year. Cal checks in 5-2 on its home floor where it averages over 76 points per game on 46.6% shooting. Arizona State averages 70.5 ppg on just north of 36% shooting on the road. Take California (10*). |
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01-09-19 | Pacers +6.5 v. Celtics | 108-135 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. With a blowout loss in Toronto suffered on Sunday night still fresh in their minds, I don't expect the Pacers to suffer any sort of letdown following last night's bounce-back win in Cleveland. Indiana has had some success here at TD Garden, coming away with straight-up victories in its last two stops. Also note that the Pacers took the lone previous meeting in this series this season by a single point in Indiana back in November. The Pacers check in having won seven of their last eight games overall. The Celtics are suddenly rolling, having won three straight games on their current homestand. Keep in mind, those wins came against the T'Wolves, Mavs and Nets. Note that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 28-0 ATS in the Celtics last 28 games. If you're playing the Pacers, you might want to throw a little bit at the moneyline as well. Take Indiana (10*). |
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01-08-19 | Manhattan v. Marist UNDER 123 | 63-78 | Loss | -122 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Manhattan and Marist at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring games and 'over' results. With that being said, both the Jaspers and Red Foxes have struggled to get out of the 50's on most nights this season and I'm expecting a return to 'normal' when they match up on Tuesday night. Manhattan is averaging just north of 52 points per game on 38% shooting on the road this season and runs into a Marist squad that will be highly-motivated after dropping its MAAC opener. The Jaspers have been vulnerable at the defensive end of the floor but I'm not sure Marist is prepared to take advantage. Note that the Red Foxes shoot below 43% as a team and right around 35% from three-point range at home this season and that's considering a small sample size of three games that includes an 82-point outburst against Columbia way back on November 10th. Take the under (10*). |
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01-07-19 | Spurs v. Pistons +3.5 | 119-107 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over San Antonio at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with the Pistons as they catch the Spurs in a big-time letdown spot coming off a perfect homestand. San Antonio was certainly up for a three-game homestand featuring showdowns with the Celtics, Raptors (and Kawhi Leonard) and the Grizzlies. Now the Spurs will need to get back up for a trip out east to face the lowly Pistons. That's a tall task in my opinion. Detroit has struggled lately but still owns a winning record at home and will be high on motivation following a narrow five-point loss on this floor against Utah. The last time these two teams met at the Palace of Auburn Hills, the Pistons rolled to a 93-79 win last December. Take Detroit (10*). |
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01-07-19 | Niagara v. Fairfield -4 | 59-77 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Fairfield minus the points over Niagara at 7 pm et on Monday. Fairfield is in desperate need of a victory here at home as it has opened the MAAC slate with consecutive losses. Both of those games could have gone either way at home against Rider and on the road against Iona. Fairfield is also off to a winless start in conference play, falling by 10 points at Manhattan. Note that the straight-up winner has gone 10-1 ATS in all Niagara games where the spread has been in single-digits this season, as is the case here. In the same situation, the SU winner has gone 7-2-1 ATS in all Fairfield games. Niagara hasn't won a game on this floor since February of 2015 and I don't see that trend changing here. Take Fairfield (10*). |
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01-03-19 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | 135-134 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. None of the last six meetings in this series have even come close to sniffing the posted total we're working with on Thursday night, but I'm not one bit surprised we're dealing with such a high number. It's the nature of today's NBA, with totals regularly reaching into the 220's and 230's. The Rockets continue to roll along without Chris Paul among others, but look at who they've faced lately. Houston's current five-game winning streak has come at the expense of the Spurs, Thunder, Celtics, Pelicans and Grizzlies, with four of those games coming at home. Elite defensive squads are few and far between in that mix. Meanwhile, the Warriors exploded for 132 points last time out, but that was against the lowly Suns. The 'under' has actually cashed in three of their last four contests. Take the under (10*). |
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01-02-19 | Hawks +5 v. Wizards | 98-114 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks were actually victorious in their last trip to the nation's capital last April, as double-digit underdogs no less. They've also managed to split a pair of meetings in Atlanta this season. While they may own an inferior overall record, they've actually performed better than the Wizards against the spread. That's not to mention the fact that they've gone 5-2 SU and ATS over their last seven contests. There's little reason to have much faith in the Wizards right now as they've won just three times in their last 12 games. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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12-25-18 | Lakers v. Warriors -8.5 | 127-101 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm not sure this is going to be the barn-burner that the TV execs are hoping for on Christmas Night. The Lakers have certainly held their own this season, exceeding most expectations to this point. Meanwhile, the Warriors haven't been nearly as dominant as we've been accustomed to seeing and have quite simply been an awful bet so far this season. With that being said, I believe we're being asked to lay a relatively short number with the defending champions here. This is without question a game that the Warriors have had circled as they look to make a statement against King James and the Lakers. Los Angeles has been a different team away from Staples Center and I look for it to struggle again in this spot. Take Golden State (10*). |
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12-25-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 222.5 | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 44 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Boston at 5:35 pm et on Tuesday. This matchup was a bit of a dud on the opening night of the regular season as Boston cruised to a 105-87 victory, not coming anywhere close to eclipsing the posted total. Now we're dealing with a considerably higher total but is it warranted? I believe it is. Both teams bring excellent form to the table, at least from an offensive standpoint. The 76ers took full advantage of a Raptors squad that was missing Kawhi Leonard on Saturday night, scoring 126 points in an eventual blowout victory. Meanwhile, the Celtics 'got right' with a 119-103 win over the Hornets on Sunday. The 76ers didn't have Jimmy Butler the last time these two teams met. Look for a track meet on Christmas Day in Beantown. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-18 | Suns v. Wizards -5.5 | 146-149 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Phoenix at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Suns are on a bit of a roll right now, having won four games in a row, with three of those coming in underdog fashion. I'll go the other way on Saturday, however, as they stay on the east coast to face what should be a highly-motivated Wizards squad. Washington has lost six of its last seven games, but it's worth noting that five of those losses came on the road. They're 8-6 at home this season while the Suns check in a miserable 3-13 on the road. Note that Phoenix has won just once here in Washington since 2014. Take Washington (10*). |
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12-21-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -1 | 120-107 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Bucks have won three games in a row while the Celtics have dropped back-to-back contests, including a stunning home defeat at the hands of the lowly Suns last time out. I expect to see Boston bounce back in this Eastern Conference showdown, however. Note that the Celtics are still 9-4 at home this season. The Bucks are 7-6 on the road compared to a dominant 14-3 at home. This has been a home-dominated series, with the Celtics having gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Celtics are a little banged-up right now but I'm confident they'll rise to the occasion against one of the NBA's best teams on Friday night. Take Boston (10*). |
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12-21-18 | Pacers -2 v. Nets | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Pacers are coming off back-to-back losses but both of those games could have gone either way, including a narrow defeat in Toronto on Wednesday night. I expect to see Indiana bounce back in Brooklyn on Friday night, where it hasn't lost a game in over two years. The Pacers are a quality road team, checking in at 9-7 away from home this season. Meanwhile, the Nets are coming off seven straight victories but keep in mind, they've been favored in three of their last four games and a short underdog in the other contest, at home against the Lakers. Brooklyn is still just 7-10 at home this season. Take Indiana (10*). |
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12-19-18 | Spurs v. Magic +1 | 129-90 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over San Antonio at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the Magic as they host the surging Spurs on Wednesday night in Orlando. While San Antonio has been playing better lately, the fact is, the Magic are still the superior ATS squad in this matchup. Orlando has also turned things around again, heading into this one off back-to-back home victories. Note that the Magic have already defeated the Spurs once this season, coming away with a seven-point road win back in early November. Orlando continues to be undervalued in the betting marketplace and we'll take advantage once again here. Take Orlando (10*). |
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12-14-18 | Warriors v. Kings +8.5 | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Golden State at 10:05 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the points with the Kings on Friday night as they host the Warriors in Sacramento. Golden State may own the better straight-up record in this matchup but the Kings have been the considerably stronger bet this season, going 17-10 ATS compared to the Warriors 13-16 ATS mark. Note that the first meeting between these two teams this season went the Warriors, but by only a single point, in Oakland back on November 24th. Sacramento is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The Kings are a winning team at home this season and I don't believe they'll back down from this challenge on Friday night. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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12-14-18 | Knicks v. Hornets -11 | 126-124 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Hornets as they aim for their fourth straight win on Friday night. The Knicks are reeling and this doesn't figure to be a favorable bounce-back spot as they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 48% from the field on the road this season. Meanwhile, Charlotte is knocking down 47.6% of its shots at home. Despite getting outshot from beyond the arc and outrebounded, the Hornets still took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 12 points in New York. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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12-11-18 | Blazers +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Portland has already gone into Houston and won this season and even last April we saw the Blazers battle the Rockets in an eventual two-point loss on this floor. Now the Blazers have plenty of motivation as they've lost four straight games on the road but have to feel confident after delivering back-to-back wins (and covers) on their home floor. The Rockets were in a nice revenge spot in Dallas on Saturday but still came up short, suffering their third straight loss. Their offense is by no means functioning at a high level right now and I don't see a turnaround coming here. Note that Houston has been one of the league's worst bets this season, going 9-16 ATS. Take Portland (10*). |
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12-08-18 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -2.5 | 111-88 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. I liked what I saw from the Grizzlies last night as they were in a tough spot in New Orleans but still managed to rally for a big road victory. Meanwhile, the Lakers faced a Spurs squad looking for quick revenge in San Antonio and absolutely buckled in the fourth quarter in a double-digit loss. I like the Grizzlies to keep it rolling on Saturday night as they return home, where they've gone 8-3 this season. The Lakers have five road wins to their credit this season but those have come against the Suns, Blazers, Kings, Heat and Cavs - all teams that are inferior to the Grizzlies. Memphis went through a bit of a lull in late-November but outside of that it has been consistently good this season, going 15-9 ATS overall. That's a stark contrast to the Lakers 10-14-1 ATS mark. Take Memphis (10*). |
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12-08-18 | Nets v. Knicks -3 | 112-104 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. It took a miserable shooting performance from the Raptors for the Nets to prevail in overtime last night, snapping an eight-game losing streak in the process. Now the Nets make the quick trip to Manhattan to face the Knicks at MSG, where they haven't managed a victory since March of 2017. New York is coming off back-to-back losses, first falling on a last-second three at home against the Wizards and then getting blown out in Boston. I do like the bounce-back spot here at home, where they've defeated the Nets by 21, 16 and 19 points in their last three meetings. Brooklyn owns the slightly better overall record but the Knicks have actually been better ATS, going 13-12-1 compared to the Nets 12-15 mark. Take New York (10*). |
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12-08-18 | Rockets -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Dallas at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the short number with the Rockets as they try to salvage one victory on their current three-game road trip. It hasn't been a good trip for Houston so far as it has been held to 91 points in back-to-back losses in Minnesota and Utah. I do expect a strong bounce-back performance here, however, as they face an opponent they've been beating up on for years. Yes, Dallas did take the first meeting between these two teams this season but it needed to shoot the lights out to do so, hitting 54% overall and 50% from beyond the arc. Note that the Mavs are expected to be without Dennis Smith Jr. on Saturday. He has been a key contributor this season, averaging over 13 points and four assists per game. Dallas has been terrific at home this season, going 10-2, but I do believe some regression is in order. Note that the Mavs haven't defeated the Rockets at home since April of 2016. Take Houston (10*). |
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12-07-18 | Raptors -9 v. Nets | 105-106 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I think the loss earlier in the week at home against Denver keeps the Raptors focus where it needs to be on Friday as they head out on the road for a sandwich game against the Nets. After this one, the Raps will head back home for a big showdown with the Bucks on Sunday. Toronto has played exceptionally well on the road this season, going 10-2 straight-up, winning by an average margin of over eight points per contest. The Nets limp into this one on the heels of eight straight losses. On their current homestand they've come up just short against the Cavs and Thunder. They played a near perfect game against Oklahoma City for three quarters on Wednesday but simply couldn't close the deal. Note that they hit nearly 42% of their three-point attempts in that game. I don't expect them to approach that level of efficiency against a Raptors squad that has held the opposition to 31.2% shooting from beyond the arc on the road this season. Take Toronto (10*). |
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12-05-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +11.5 | Top | 129-105 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Golden State at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors own the far superior overall record this season, having gone 16-9 straight-up compared to the Cavs ugly 5-18 mark. With that being said, Cleveland has been the better bet, going 12-11 ATS in contrast to the Warriors 11-14 ATS record. Golden State got off to a tremendous start on Monday night in Atlanta and ultimately cruised to a 17-point victory. It is worth noting, however, that the Warriors were actually even with the Hawks over the final three quarters of that game. The Cavs snapped a four-game losing streak with a 99-97 win in Brooklyn last time out and are now 5-3 ATS over their last eight contests. They've gotten a nice boost from rookie Collin Sexton, not to mention the addition of Alec Burks by trade, as he has scored in double figures in three straight games since joining the Cavs. This is a clear sandwich spot for the Warriors as they'll head to Milwaukee for a date with the Bucks on Friday. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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12-04-18 | Blazers v. Mavs -2 | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Portland at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers may have the slightly better overall record but the Mavs have been far superior ATS, going 14-7 compared to Portland's 11-12 mark. That's not to mention the fact that Dallas has posted a terrific 9-2 SU record at home while the Blazers check in 5-6 on the road. And of course current form sees the Mavs playing far better than the Blazers right now, winners of eight of their last 10 games overall while Portland has dropped five of its last six contests. Bettors aren't as quick to dismiss the Mavs as they were earlier in the season, which is why we're seeing them favored in this particular matchup. With that being said, I like the way the spot sets up for Dallas as it stays home off a day of rest while the Blazers travel after playing in San Antonio on Sunday. Take Dallas (10*). |
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12-03-18 | Nuggets v. Raptors -6 | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Denver at 7:35 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Raptors on Monday night as they host the red hot Nuggets. Denver comes in riding a five-game winning streak, both SU and ATS. In fact, the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 15-0 ATS over the Nuggets last 15 contests. I just don't like the spot for the Nuggets here as they head across the continent following a 113-112 victory in Portland on Friday night. The Raptors make the short trip back from Cleveland, where they won by 11 points on Saturday night. Toronto hasn't suffered a loss since falling in overtime in Boston back on November 16th (we won with the Celtics in that game). The Raps have gone just 4-4 ATS over their last eight games but only once over that stretch were they favored by less than seven points, as is the case here. They won by eight points as a 5.5-point road favorite in Memphis last week. Take Toronto (10*). |
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11-30-18 | Pelicans v. Heat +3 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The public is quick to back the Pelicans on the road on Friday night, and why not? After all, the Heat are reeling, losers of eight of their last 10 games overall. With that being said, I like the spot for Miami, noting that New Orleans has gone a miserable 2-9 straight-up on the road this season and has just one win over its last five games, that coming against the dysfunctional Wizards. New Orleans has taken back-to-back meetings in this series, but Miami is actually 5-1 ATS in the last six matchups between these two teams. This is a big spot for the Heat coming off an embarrassing loss against the Hawks to open this homestand. Take Miami (10*). |
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11-28-18 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 218 | Top | 89-128 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in Minnesota on Wednesday night. The Spurs needed everything they had to get past the lowly Bulls by a single point in Chicago on Monday night. It did mark their seventh straight game scoring over 100 points and I don't think they'll have much trouble eclipsing that number again on Wednesday. Note that San Antonio has scored 117 and 112 points in two meetings with the T'Wolves since the start of 2018. Minnesota has seen the 'under' cash in seven straight games. While they have allowed just 96 and 95 points over their last two games, those contests came against the Cavs and Bulls - two of the league's weakest teams. They'll face a much tougher challenge here, although based on the pointspread being in their favor, I'm certainly anticipating a competitive game from start to finish, and that should lend itself to a high-scoring affair in this case. The first meeting between these two teams this season totaled 220 points. I'll call for more of the same here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-27-18 | Knicks v. Pistons -7 | Top | 108-115 | Push | 0 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks are riding a season-high three-game winning streak with all three of those wins coming in outright underdog fashion. Keep in mind, they were at least eight-point underdogs in all three of those contests. We're dealing with a shorter number here at the time of posting, and I believe we're getting value with the Pistons, who are also playing some terrific basketball right now. Detroit has won six of its last eight games overall, going 7-1 ATS over that stretch. The Pistons will benefit from staying home for a third straight game here, coming off a double-digit win over the Suns on this floor two nights ago. While Detroit checks in 6-3 at home this season, New York has won just four times in 12 road games. Note that the Knicks have already lost games by 11, 23, 13, 16, 25 and 14 points on the road this season. Take Detroit (10*). |
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11-21-18 | Kings +9.5 v. Jazz | 119-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Utah at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Kings on Wednesday night as they aim to begin their short two-game road trip on a winning note in Utah. Sacramento not only has the better overall record in this matchup, it also owns the superior ATS mark. The Kings are 10-7 ATS while Utah has gone just 8-9 ATS this season. The Kings just endured their first winless road trip last week, dropping games in Memphis and Houston. They did respond with a win over the Thunder back at home and I believe their motivation level will remain high for this one before heading to Oakland to face the Warriors. The Jazz will be back home for the first time following a five-game road trip. They've dropped three of their last four games both SU and ATS. Utah will simply be looking for a win here, not necessarily to win by margin. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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11-21-18 | Blazers +6 v. Bucks | 100-143 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I believe too much weight is being placed on the fact that the Blazers are playing on back-to-back nights, leaving the Bucks overvalued in this spot on Wednesday night. Keep in mind, Portland is coming off back-to-back road wins, improving to 5-3 SU away from home this season. It has already defeated Milwaukee once this season, by a 118-103 score at home on November 6th. While the Bucks have taken four of the last five meetings in this series, only two of those victories came by more than three points and one of those came nearly two years ago. Having gone just 2-2 in their first four games on this road trip, the Blazers will be eager to secure another win here before wrapping up the trip against the Warriors in Oakland. Take Portland (10*). |
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11-20-18 | Nets v. Heat -3 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets have had success here in South Beach in recent years but I like the way this spot sets up for the Heat as they aim to bounce back from an ugly home loss to Lebron James and the Lakers. Miami is now a miserable 3-6 SU at home this season but this is a fine opportunity to get a little back against a struggling Nets squad. Brooklyn checks in following another loss, its fourth in its last five games. The Nets lone victory over that stretch came against the lowly Wizards. This is a key spot for the Heat as they'll get a couple of days off for Thanksgiving before hitting the road for games in Chicago and Toronto. It's not a must-win by any means but I certainly expect their motivation level to be high. In previous years we've seen them overlook the Nets here at home, but I don't believe that will be the case on Tuesday. Take Miami (10*). |
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11-20-18 | Raptors v. Magic +7.5 | 93-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Raptors snapped their three-game losing streak with a blowout win in Chicago on Saturday night but I believe they're overvalued as they head into Orlando to face the Magic on Tuesday. Note that while Toronto has the better overall record this season, the Raps and Magic have actually posted identical 9-8 ATS marks. This has been a competitive series since the start of 2017 with the Raptors taking four of six meetings (including four in a row heading into this one) but the Magic have gone 3-2-1 ATS. Orlando will see this as a measuring stick game coming off three straight victories and five in their last six games. I'm simply expecting a competitive affair at Amway Center on Tuesday night and believe the Magic are catching a couple of points too many. Take Orlando (10*). |
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11-20-18 | Duquesne v. Notre Dame OVER 140 | 56-67 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duquesne and Notre Dame at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results - games in which they shot in the low-40's percentage-wise. I'm anticipating a bounce-back offensively from both squads here, and believe this could turn out to be a bit of a track meet. The Irish have actually seen their last three games go 'under' the total after opening their campaign with an 84-67 win over Illinois-Chicago. I will point out that the Irish did get loose in the second half of their most recent game against William and Mary, scoring 46 points in the final 20 minutes. They got to 73 points in that game despite shooting right around 41% including a dismal 25% from three-point range. I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from their second half performance in that contest. Duquesne is coming off an impressive win over Radford (the same Radford team that beat Notre Dame). The Dukes scored just 69 points in that victory but that wasn't unexpected with the total sitting in the 130's for that one. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-18 | Oakland +8 v. UNLV | 61-74 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland plus the points over UNLV at 10 pm et on Friday. Oakland missed out on postseason basketball for the first time in a long time last season and with a lot of roster turnover heading into this campaign, many expect it to be a long one for the Grizzlies. I'm not so sure. They're off to a 1-2 start but did deliver an ATS win in their lone previous game as an underdog, falling by just one point against a good Toledo squad. UNLV has split its first two games and is coming off a blowout victory over Cal-Riverside. Of course, that was to be expected as the Runnin' Rebels were double-digit favorites in that game. While UNLV should be better than it was a year ago, I can't help but feel it is laying too many points in this early season non-conference clash. Take Oakland (10*). |
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11-16-18 | Raptors v. Celtics -1.5 | 116-123 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the Raptors in the first meeting between these two teams this season but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Celtics this time around. Toronto is by no means playing its best basketball right now, coming off back-to-back losses at home against the Pelicans and Pistons. The Raptors are dealing with several key injuries while the Celtics check in healthy for the most part. Boston is coming off one of its most complete performances of the season, shaking off a slow start to roll past the Bulls by 29 points. The win improved the Celtics to 4-1 at home this season. Note that the home team has won eight straight meetings in this series. Take Boston (10*). |
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11-14-18 | Blazers +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. We're getting considerable value with the superior squad in this matchup, largely due to the presence of LeBron James, not to mention the strong current form the Lakers bring to the table, on paper at least. Los Angeles does check in having won five of its last six games but that's been thanks in large part to a charmin-soft schedule. Yes, the Lakers did beat these same Blazers over that stretch but you have to think that only adds to Portland's motivation here. The Blazers are coming off two days' rest which comes on the heels of an extended homestand. I believe Portland is in excellent position to lay the hammer down on the Lakers in this spot. Take Portland (10*). |
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10-22-18 | Hornets +9.5 v. Raptors | 106-127 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Hornets as they head to Toronto to face the undefeated Raptors. Charlotte is coming off a big road win in Miami on Saturday night but there isn't likely to be a letdown here after the Hornets were outscored by 19 points in the second half against the Heat, holding on to win by a single point. The Hornets always seem to play the Raptors tough here in Toronto and this should be a better Charlotte squad than we've seen in recent years. Toronto sat Kawhi Leonard in an early season back-to-back spot in Washington on Saturday night but still found a way to win on the strength of a big performance from Kyle Lowry. We actually won with the Raptors on Friday night as they outlasted the Celtics 113-101. However, I won't hesitate to switch gears in this spot as Toronto is laying a much loftier number in what I expect to be a competitive affair. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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10-19-18 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Boston at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Celtics took care of business in their season opener against the 76ers but it wasn't a clean performance by any means. Boston was sloppy with the basketball at times and it was obvious that Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving are going to be slowly re-acclimated into the offense in the early stages of the season. Meanwhile, the Raptors also posted a victory in their opener, rolling to a double-digit win over the Cavaliers. I like the way the Raptors have stepped up in these big statement games at home in recent years - at least in the regular season. The Celtics are going to get better as the season goes on but right now, I believe the Raptors are the superior team. Take Toronto (10*). |
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10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 208.5 | 87-105 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair between the 76ers and Celtics as the NBA regular season tips off on Tuesday night at TD Garden. We saw a relatively high-scoring playoff series between these two teams last spring and there's little reason to expect any sort of shift here. The 76ers appeared to be in midseason form offensively during the preseason while the Celtics were able to get Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving loose as they work their way back from long-term injuries. The C's are thought of as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference and I'm confident we'll see them come out and push the envelope against one of their biggest threats in the 76ers. I don't believe that slowing things down and drawing out possessions is in either team's DNA. I feel this total could have been set higher, and would likely still consider the 'over'. Look for higher numbers in games involving these two teams in the coming weeks. Take the over (10*). |
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06-08-18 | Warriors -5 v. Cavs | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Cleveland at 9 pm et on Friday. We backed the Warriors in Game 3 of this series and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with them again in the potential series-clincher on Friday night in Cleveland. Many believed this series was over before it started. While I did feel the Cavs could be competitive and push the Warriors a bit, after the way they lost the series-opener it became all about how they would respond in Game 2. The short answer was, they didn’t. Cleveland looked like a defeated squad in the second game of the series and while the Cavs did put up a fight in Game 3 on Wednesday, it wasn’t enough. Now it’s just a question of whether the Warriors have the motivation to end this on Friday night. I believe they will. Golden State has been very business-like in taking care of the Cavs so far in this series. They very much look like a team that wants to wrap this up as quickly as possible and not drag things out. As much as the Warriors fans would like to see their team win another championship at home in Oakland, I’m sure the Warriors themselves will be happy to board a plane back home with the Larry O’Brien Trophy in tow. It’s worth noting that the straight-up winner has now gone an incredible 16-1 against the spread since the start of the NBA Conference Finals. I’ll stick with that trend and call for the Warriors to finish the job on Friday night in Cleveland. Take Golden State (10*). |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Golden State and Cleveland at 9 pm et on Friday. The Warriors have had four previous series-clinching opportunities in these playoffs, going 3-1 straight-up in those games. For our purposes with this play, it’s worth noting that those games have averaged just 198.3 total points, with only one of those games surpassing the total we’re working with on Friday night. The Cavs played about as well as we could have expected in Game 3 of this series but could still only muster 102 points in a losing effort. They know they’re not coming back to win this series at this point, and I certainly don’t think they’re interested in getting involved in a track meet with the Warriors on Friday night. Meanwhile, after three games, and with Andre Iguodala back in the rotation, the Warriors should have a pretty good handle on how to contain the Cavs less-than-complex offense at this point. It’s really up to Golden State how it wants this game to play out and based on its track record in these playoffs, I look for it to lock down the Cleveland offense as it stares down an opportunity to wrap up this series rather than drag it out another few days. Steph Curry isn’t going to go 0-for-9 from three-point range again but I’m also not sure we’ll see Kevin Durant go off the way he did in Game 3. Cleveland made every effort to push the pace early in Game 3 and got off to a fantastic start in the first two minutes, but it wasn’t able to keep up that frantic tempo and certainly wasn’t effective getting back on defense while doing so. As I mentioned, the Cavs know they aren’t going to beat the Warriors at their own game. The last time the Warriors wrapped up an NBA title here on this floor in Cleveland back in 2016, they did so with a 105-97 victory in Game 6. I expect to see a similar story unfold on Friday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 217 | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Cleveland at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series have gone 'over' the total (we won with the over in Game 1 but missed with the under in Game 2) but I expect a different story to play out on Wednesday night at the Q. First of all, we have a catalyst for change in place here as the series shifts to Cleveland. It's also worth noting that the two teams are relatively well rested having had two off days following each of the first two games of the series. While the Warriors carry a reputation as being an offensive juggernaut and an 'over' machine for betting purposes, the fact is they've actually trended toward the 'under' with a 46-54-1 o/u mark this season and have only posted three or more consecutive 'over' results on two different occasions - with both of those streaks coming during the regular season. Last year's NBA Finals were high-scoring throughout, although the first game of that series did stay 'under' the total. In the last three Finals series' between these two teams we have yet to see the first three games all go 'over' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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06-06-18 | Warriors -4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 59 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Cleveland at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We were always going to see the Cavs’ resilience level in Game 2 of this series on Sunday night. After the way the series opener played out, the Cavs were either going to show up with their best effort of the postseason or they were going to look down-trodden and very much like a team that is resigned to the fact that they cannot, and will not be able to win this series. We certainly saw the latter on Sunday night. Save for a couple of brief bursts early on, the Cavs appeared to be a beaten squad, both emotionally and physically. While Lebron James has appeared visibly frustrated for much of these playoffs, it certainly looked like all of the joy was zapped from his being after Game 1’s overtime loss. So now the series shifts to Cleveland and while the Cavs faithful would like to remain hopeful and ultimately help lift Lebron and company back into this series, I just don’t see it happening. The Cavs are being given respect still from the betting marketplace - otherwise we would be looking at a line approaching double-digits in favor of the Warriors, even on the road. I’m just not sure that respect is due at this point. The Warriors have looked disjointed at times in these playoffs – disinterested even. That comes with the territory as they aim for their third NBA title in the last four years. However, after toying with the Cavs in Game 2, I believe they can sense another championship in their grasp and I don’t think they’ll have any interest in messing around with the Cavs any longer than they absolutely have to. It’s time to move on from this “rivalry”. Take Golden State (10*). |
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06-03-18 | Cavs +11.5 v. Warriors | 103-122 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Golden State at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Cavs in Game 1 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Sunday night. The Cavs didn't force overtime by fluke on Thursday night. In fact, they just as easily could have won that game before overtime were it not for J.R. Smith losing sight of the score. There's no reason for the Cavs to hang their heads after that loss. If anything it should give them encouragement heading into this contest. The Warriors have now taken all three meetings in this series this season, going 2-1 ATS in the process. However, none of those victories came by more than 10 points. The Cavs know that they need a split here in Oakland if they want to have any hope of making a series of it. While I'm not sure if they'll be able to get the outright win, I will gladly grab the generous helping of points. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 215 | 103-122 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Golden State at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Sunday night. Both teams got off to blazing starts in the opener, and the result was a high-scoring opening quarter. But from there things did settle down and we saw some stretches of sloppy basketball - the type of basketball that has been fairly common in both teams' current playoff runs. I'm not sure we're going to see another peak Lebron effort in Game 2. But on the flip side, I also haven't loved what I've seen from the Warriors, who have looked far more disjointed than in previous playoff campaigns. Keep in mind, these two teams were involved in a game that reached only 191 total points in the regular season so the potential is there for a relatively low-scoring, physical affair. I expect to see that physicality ramp up in the second game of the series. Take the under (10*). |
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05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. In last year's Finals opener we saw the lowest scoring game of the series, reaching just 204 total points. In fact, that was the only 'under' result in the series as the next four games flew 'over' the number. I expect a different story to unfold here in the 2018 Finals. The Warriors won't be afforded the luxury of having the Cavs missing over and over again from three-point range the way the Rockets did last round. While the Cavs are likely going to be missing Kevin Love once again, they won't be missing arguably their most important player the way the Rockets were at the end of the Western Finals either. With all of that said, I don't think we'll see the Cavs offer much resistance defensively. The Celtics seemed to bail the Cavs out last round, particularly in Game 7 of that series as they displayed some poor shot selection and couldn't really get into any sort of offensive groove. Here, I'm confident the Warriors will be on the attack for 48 minutes and find plenty of success against a vulnerable Cavs defense. The last time these two teams met in January we saw a closing total of 233.5. We're obviously working with a much different number here and that has everything to do with the Warriors 1-9 o/u record over their last 10 games. That has little bearing in the opener of this series though. Take the over (10*). |
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05-31-18 | Cavs +12.5 v. Warriors | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The vast majority of folks seem to think that this series is a foregone conclusion and that the Warriors are going to win in a walk. That was certainly the case last year as the Cavs managed to take only one game from the Warriors. I expect a different story to unfold this year, however, and actually see Cleveland giving Golden State a run. This may be one of the weakest teams Lebron James has ever carried this far in the playoffs, but I feel that only motivates King James more. He took his game to another level in the final two games against the Celtics and I look for some carry-over in the opener of The Finals on Thursday night. The Warriors have posted consecutive ATS wins only twice in these playoffs, reeling off three straight ATS victories just once (that was the first three games of the playoffs against San Antonio). Prior to that, the last time the Warriors won three in a row ATS was way back in February (8th to 12th). Neither of these teams have been good bets this season - when in doubt, grab the points with the underdog. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-28-18 | Warriors -5.5 v. Rockets | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the Warriors in Game 6 of this series on Saturday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them in Game 7 on Monday night. As I've mentioned this round, the SU winner has done a tremendous job of also covering the spread here in the Conference Finals, including a perfect 6-0 ATS mark in this series (perfect 13-0 ATS overall this round). That's a trend I see continuing here. The Rockets seemed to peak in Game 5 of this series, at least from an emotional standpoint. They didn't have it on Saturday night in Oakland, at least from the second quarter on, and now I'm just not sure they truly believe they can beat the three-time defending Western Conference champions in a winner-take-all affair. Golden State couldn't have played any worse than it did the last time it played on this floor in Game 5. We saw the Warriors finally wake up after a dreadful first quarter in Game 6 and I look for some carry-over from that performance here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 208.5 | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Houston at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We saw a very low-scoring game between the Cavs and Celtics last night (we won with the 'under') and while I don't expect that type of slugfest here in Game 7 of the Western Finals, I am confident this contest will stay 'under' the posted total. We've seen the totals drop drastically over the course of this series, but it's been warranted in my opinion. Even in Game 6, when the two teams took turns going on monster runs, the game still stayed comfortably 'under' the number. I certainly expect some pushback from the Rockets here after they were run out of the gym on Saturday night. But I'm not convinced Houston's offense can figure things out, clearly mired in a major shooting slump, particularly from beyond the arc, in this series. Whether Chris Paul is able to play or not, I'm not anticipating a track meet between these two teams who are obviously extremely familiar with one another at this point. Take the under (10*). |
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05-27-18 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 200 | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Boston at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Game 7 between the Cavs and Celtics on Sunday night. It's certainly worth noting that the 'under' has gone 3-0 in three games in Boston in this series while the 'over' has cashed in two of three games in Cleveland. The Cavs actually took a step back in Game 6, putting up 109 points after scoring 116 and 111 points in Games 3 and 4 in Cleveland. Lebron James turned in one of the biggest performances of his career in Game 6 but he'll have a tough time replicating that feat in Boston, where the Celtics have done a good job defending him in this series. While the Celtics have enjoyed plenty of success in this series, particularly at home, this is still a young team hosting a squad of seasoned veterans with a spot in the NBA Finals on the line - I do think we'll see them display some nerves, at least early in this contest. This is the lowest total we've seen in this series so far, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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05-27-18 | Cavs +3 v. Celtics | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Boston at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. It seems as though the Celtics have won over the betting public as folks are lining up to back the C's at home in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday night. While we've won with the Celtics at home twice in this series I won't hesitate to switch sides here in Game 7 as I feel the value has swung in the Cavs favor after Lebron James' incredible performance in Game 6 on Friday. Even if the Cavs are without Kevin Love for this one, I still expect them to put forth a much better showing than we've seen in their first three games here in Boston. There's no question the Celtics are an emerging team in the East, they've more than proved that during this playoff run. I'm just not sure their time has come just yet. It's not often we see the home team run the table in the NBA Conference Finals, and I don't see it happening here either. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors couldn't have played much worse in Game 5 of this series on Thursday night, as the Rockets rode a wave of emotion to a narrow three-point win. The fact that Golden State was in that game right until the end was telling in my opinion. I expect to see a much sharper performance from the Warriors on Saturday. While we're being asked to lay a steep price for sure, I do believe it's warranted, especially considering the Rockets will be without Chris Paul after he re-aggravated a hamstring injury in Game 5. Despite being up 3-2 in this series you have to think Houston is feeling a sense of doubt as it heads to Oakland - not a good feeling when you're looking to close out the defending champs. It's worth noting that the after the Cavs win and cover last night, the SU winner has now gone a perfect 11-0 ATS in this round. I certainly don't expect the Warriors to go down without a fight and feel confident they'll force a Game 7 in Houston. Look for that SU/ATS combo trend to continue here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Boston at 8:35 pm et on Friday. There's been a pretty strong trend when it comes to Lebron James-led teams in the playoffs over the years, that being the SU winner more often than not covers the spread as well, no matter the pointspread range. We saw that trend break early in these playoffs but lately it has come back strong, with the SU winner going 8-1 ATS in the Cavs last nine games overall. I don't expect the Cavs to lose this series on their home floor on Friday night. We won with the Celtics on Wednesday in a game that was never really close. But the Celtics have yet to sniff out a victory here in Cleveland and don't expect anything to change on Friday night. Look for Lebron James to turn in his best performance of the series as the Cavs force a seventh and deciding game. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-24-18 | Warriors -1 v. Rockets | 94-98 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I don't think there's any panic at all in the Warriors as they head back to Houston with this series all knotted at two games apiece. Golden State was completely outplayed in two of four quarters in Game 4, ultimately falling by three points. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant combined to shoot 19-of-50 in the loss. Needless to say, I'm anticipating a strong bounce-back performance from that duo, especially if Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala can't go on Thursday night. The Rockets can't play much better than they did on Tuesday, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. I fully expect Warriors head coach Steve Kerr to make the necessary gameplan adjustments while the Warriors stars execute. Golden State knows it can win on this floor, having come away victorious in the series opener here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. This has been the classic homer series so far and I don't see that trend reversing on Wednesday night in Boston. Everyone is quick to write off the Celtics after back-to-back losses in Cleveland, just as they were quick to write off the Cavs following the first two games in Boston. There are those suddenly questioning Celtics head coach Brad Stevens' decisions and his ability to make the necessary adjustments against Lebron James and company. I'm not buying into any of it. The Celtics have been a completely different team on their home floor in these playoffs, and really all season long. Boston is an impressive 36-14 SU at home this season while the Cavs are just a .500 team on the road. I like the fact that the Celtics didn't fold the tent after a miserable first quarter on Monday in Cleveland, outscoring the Cavs in each of the next three quarters in an eventual nine-point loss. I don't believe they'll be intimidated or crumble under the pressure in Game 5. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +8.5 v. Warriors | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Rockets in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night in Oakland. Houston put forth a miserable effort in Game 3, unable to build on what was certainly a strong performance in a blowout win in Game 2. Now it's up to the Rockets to come up with some answers and I do expect them to show up. Whether that leads to an outright win remains to be seen, but I do think the Rockets are going to stay inside the lofty pointspread here, noting that the Warriors remain a losing bet on the season at 41-53-1 ATS. Stay aware of the status of Andre Iguodala for the Warriors as he may be forced to miss Tuesday's game due to injury, which would obviously be a key absence. I'll make this play on the Rockets assuming he's good to go, however. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-21-18 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 207 | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' on Monday as we're starting to see a real 'under' trend build for both teams. Obviously the first three games of this series have now gone 'under' and so have five of the Celtics last six games overall and four of the Cavs last five. Five of six meetings between these two games have stayed 'under' the total this season. All three games in this series have been decided by double-digit margins. Game 2 was the most competitive but even that contest couldn't get 'over' the total thanks to fourth quarter scoring lapses from both teams. This is clearly a pivotal game in this series as we'll see what kind of fight the Celtics show after getting their first taste of adversity. I'm expecting gritty performances from both teams. Take the under (10*). |
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05-20-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 226 | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Golden State at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. I certainly don't see the Rockets backing down as this series shifts to Oakland for Game 3 on Sunday night. With that being said, I also look for the Warriors to force the issue here, and perform much better than they did in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday night. Note that the lone regular season meeting here at Oracle Arena resulted in a 122-121 Rockets victory on the opening night of the regular season. We're dealing with the highest total in this playoff series so far, but I believe the number can and will go even higher as the series progresses. There will be spots to play the 'under' but this isn't one of them in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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05-19-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Cavs | 86-116 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. While the Cavs are certainly capable of getting back in this series and holding serve on their home court, I don't expect to see the Celtics back down, even with a 2-0 lead in their back pocket. The Cavs, even when at their best, have had a tendency to let teams hang around, or even creep back in late in the game - particularly at home - and I expect a similar story to unfold on Saturday night in Cleveland. Both teams had an extremely tough time making shots in the fourth quarter in Game 2 on Tuesday. Boston gave Cleveland every opportunity to get back in the game but the Cavs essentially stood around watching Lebron try to do it all (when they weren't doing that they were hoisting up ill-advised threes). Still, Cleveland couldn't take advantage. The Cavs are being given a lot of respect by the oddsmakers here, and perhaps rightfully so given their pedigree. I'm just not sure they'll have an easy time winning by margin. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 205 | 86-116 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday night as neither team could find any offensive consistency in the fourth quarter, ultimately ruining what looked like an easy, rocking chair winner after three quarters. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the series shifts to Cleveland, however. I fully expect to see the Celtics to continue to attack, albeit with some wiser shot selection than we saw in the fourth quarter in Game 2. The Cavs could have easily gotten back into that game were it not for some dreadful fourth quarter shooting and shot selection of their own on that night. Look for them to do a much better job of getting to the basket and forcing the issue rather than hoisting up desperation three-pointers the way they did late in Game 2. The Cavs will also need to stop standing around and watching Lebron James. I don't see that being as much of an issue here at home in Game 3. Regardless whether this is a tight game or a lopsided affair, I believe we'll see plenty of scoring all the way through. Take the over (10*). |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225 | 105-127 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Houston at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Houston on Wednesday night as the Rockets try to even things up with the Warriors in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. The Rockets can play a lot better defensively than they did in Game 1 on Monday night. Houston simply had no answers for the Warriors offense, particularly in the second half as Kevin Durant paced the charge with 37 points. Meanwhile, the Warriors did just about as good as you could expect as far as containing the Rockets goes, giving up 41 points to James Harden but holding the team to just under 46% shooting and 13 made threes. I'm really not sure how many adjustments Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni can make heading into this one. The Warriors are a better defensive team than most give them credit for, noting that they've held the opposition to 44.5% shooting this season. While Golden State is more than capable of prevailing in a track meet with Houston, I'm not sure it is all that eager to get involved in such a contest with a 1-0 series lead in its back pocket. Take the under (10*). |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm going to add the Rockets to my ticket on Wednesday night. It's amazing how perspectives change after just one game in a series. Leading up to this one, most expected a long, hard-fought series between arguably the two best teams in the NBA. After the Warriors prevailed in Game 1, a lot of folks are calling for a sweep. I don't expect it to be that easy for Golden State. Houston didn't bring its 'A' game on Monday night. There's no question about that. Of course, neither did the Warriors. With that being said, I do expect the Rockets to lay it all on the line in Game 2 on Wednesday, with a long layoff coming before the series resumes in Oakland on Sunday night. I don't believe the Rockets confidence was shaken by that double-digit loss in Game 1. They need to use home court to their advantage to make this a series. Look for them to do just that on Wednesday. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-15-18 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5 | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cleveland and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavs were essentially run out of the building in Game 1 of this series in Boston on Sunday afternoon (we won with the Celtics), scoring only 35 first half points en route to a 108-83 beatdown at the hands of the Celtics. While I’m not sure the Cavs make the complete turnaround and win Game 2, I am confident we’ll see them put forth a much stronger offensive showing. Lebron James certainly said all of the right things after that Game 1 blowout and I believed much of what he said in that he’s not one bit concerned by one loss. Look for a big game out of Lebron on Tuesday night as he takes advantage of what I consider an average Celtics defense. On the flip side, Boston continues to impress, getting offensive contributions from everywhere on the floor. Despite getting only 17 points combined from Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart, the C’s still managed to easily eclipse the 100-point mark on Sunday. There’s little reason to expect much of a letdown here. Brad Stevens continues to prove himself as one of the league’s best coaches and I’m confident he’ll make a few adjustments to keep the offense flowing on Tuesday night. We’re dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in the series opener, but I believe it’s the wrong move. Expect a competitive, relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | 119-106 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Monday. Home court means something in the NBA Playoffs, especially in the latter stages - that's an understatement. The Rockets have certainly been dominant here at home this season, going 39-8 SU. We saw them take their game to another level against the Jazz last round. Save for a complete letdown in Game 2, they were the vastly superior team, toying with the Jazz at times. Here, they'll face a much tougher challenge and while I'm not about to predict the Rockets to win the series, I do believe they'll play with a real sense of urgency on Monday night, perhaps a little moreso than the Warriors who have been here before. The Rockets took two of three meetings in this series during the regular season, most recently prevailing by a 116-108 score here at home back in January. In that game, the guy I believe will be the x-factor in Monday's contest, Eric Gordon of the Rockets connected on just 2-of-14 shots, and went 0-for-9 from beyond the arc in a six-point performance. I look for much better things out of the super sixth man on Monday night. We've heard so much about the 'Hamptons Five' leading up to this series. For at least one game, I look for the duo of Harden and Paul to one-up that unit. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-13-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +2 | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Cleveland at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Cavs haven't been a great road team by any means this season, going 24-22 SU. They did sweep both games in Toronto last round, but I expect them to face a lot more resistance against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston has been playing with house money for much of the season, really since losing Gordon Hayward and then Kyrie Irving. This is very much a team that has played with a 'nothing to lose' mentality in the playoffs, and it has certainly served them well. Note that Boston is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS at home in the postseason. The C's will certainly be up for this matchup. They held their own against the Cavaliers during the regular season, going 1-2 SU but 2-1 ATS. With that being said, a 121-99 home loss to the Cavs suffered back in February won't be far from their minds. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | 112-114 | Win | 102 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Philadelphia at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Despite the 76ers delivering a convincing win in Game 4 of this series in Philadelphia, most bettors are lining up to back the Celtics here as the series shifts back to Boston. While I'm not a big fan of being on the same side as the betting majority, it doesn't mean they're always wrong. In this case, I do believe they have it right. The Celtics have been terrific at home this season, going 33-14 SU. We saw just how much they feed off the home crowd back in Game 2 of this series after they fell behind big early in the game only to rally and win. Boston certainly doesn't want to give Philadelphia any more life than it already has. I'm confident we'll see Celtics head coach Brad Stevens make the necessary adjustments. We certainly didn't see Boston put forth its best effort in its first shot at eliminating the Sixers but the Celts make up for it here. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 226.5 | Top | 104-113 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Pelicans quite simply couldn't knock down their shots in Game 4 of this series and the Warriors rolled to an easy victory as a result (we won with Golden State and the 'under'). I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' in this elimination game on Tuesday night. There's reason for the Pelicans to be confident heading into this one as they've scored at least 115 points in five of eight meetings between these two teams this season. The Warriors came out with the right level of intensity in Game 4 on Sunday, but that was coming off a 19-point drubbing just two nights earlier. Here, I'm not sure they manhandle the Pelicans right out of the gate in quite the same way. On the flip side, there's little reason to think that New Orleans can slow an offensive juggernaut like the Warriors on the road. Golden State has scored 120, 123 and 121 points in its last three home games against the Pelicans. Take the over (10*). |
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05-07-18 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 214 | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Monday. The Raptors gave the Cavs their best shot on Saturday, or at least they didn't quit, battling back in the fourth quarter before falling on another Lebron James buzzer-beater. For much of Saturday's game the Raptors couldn't get anything going offensively. DeMar DeRozan was a non-factor and while he should play better on Monday night, I'm still not sure it's enough for the Raptors to hang around and inflict a great deal of damage offensively. The Cavs were on top of their game offensively in Game 3 and pretty much have been since the opening tip of this series. But again, I'm not sure they need to turn in an explosive offensively performance in this one. It's a win and move on situation and I look for the Cavs to put forth a clean effort. Take the under (10*). |
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05-07-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. 76ers | 92-103 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Monday. Maybe the Celtics come out flat and get their doors blown off on Monday night but I see this one playing out differently. Boston has a chance to put away the 76ers and get some much-needed rest before an anticipated showdown with the Cavs and I look for it to take full advantage. Celtics head coach Brad Stevens has coached circles around 76ers boss Brett Brown. The 76ers seem to be having a tough time figuring things out with Joel Embiid back in the lineup and have looked nothing like the poised squad that disposed of the Heat in round one of the playoffs. Now with their backs against the wall I have no doubt that the 76ers will show up, but I simply believe they're laying too many points in this matchup. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-06-18 | Rockets -5 v. Jazz | 100-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Rockets in Game 3 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Houston in Game 4 on Sunday night in Salt Lake City. I can't help but think that the Jazz's victory in Game 2 in Houston had more to do with the Rockets not bringing the proper level of compete than it did anything Utah was able to do gameplan-wise. The Rockets came out with a lot more intensity in Game 3 and blew the doors off the Jazz with only a late run making things look a little more respectable than it actually was. The common line of thinking is that the Jazz will make the necessary adjustments and get back in this series on Sunday, but I'm not so sure. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-06-18 | Warriors -6 v. Pelicans | 118-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over New Orleans at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Pelicans shot the lights out on their way to a Game 3 victory on Friday night. I look for the Warriors to answer back with a better defensive performance on Sunday, while also shooting better themselves after knocking down less than 40% of their shots last time out. We're being asked to lay a considerable price here, but we're backing the superior squad in a strong motivational spot. Expect a quality road game from the defending champs on their way to a win and cover. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-06-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans UNDER 231 | 118-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and New Orleans at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' has cashed in four of the Pelicans last five games overall but only two of those contests went 'over' the number we're working with this afternoon. I expect to see the Warriors do a much better job defending the perimeter after allowing the Pelicans to knock down 14-of-31 shots from beyond the arc on Friday. On the flip side, it's essentially another must-win situation for New Orleans and I'm confident we will see them keep the Warriors offense in check for stretches in this one, even if they're not able to stay within arm's length for 48 minutes. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-18 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 216 | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Toronto and Cleveland at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We didn’t see a great deal of defense from either team in the first two games of this series, although Game 1 was poised to go ‘under’ the total before chances of that were ruined by overtime (we had the ‘under’ in that game). This is it for the Raptors. They desperately need a win on Saturday night as they’re not going to dig themselves out of an 0-3 hole against Lebron and co. With that being said, I do expect to see more pushback from the Raps defensively here. A lot of the shots the Cavs knocked down as they pulled away from the Raps on Thursday came with a high degree of difficulty. Don’t count on them making all of those shots again on Saturday. Cleveland will undoubtedly get a boost from playing back at home, but that should help them defensively as well. Nothing will come easy for the Raps as they try to claw their way back into the series and that lends itself to a lower-scoring contest on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +4.5 v. Cavs | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Cleveland at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors came unglued over the course of Game 2 of this series on Thursday, after falling in an opener that truly could have gone either way two nights earlier. While I don’t believe the Raps can actually win this series, I do think we’ll see them make things at least a little bit interesting with their most complete effort of the series on Saturday night. Yes, Lebron clearly has Toronto’s number but there’s no question that’s been factored into this line. The betting public will be quick to jump all over the Cavs as they return home with a 2-0 stranglehold on this series but I believe we’re getting solid value with the Raps in an underdog role, carrying a ‘nothing to lose’ mentality on Saturday night. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-05-18 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 206.5 | 101-98 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Boston and Philadelphia at 5 pm et on Saturday. The first two games of this series have gone ‘over’ the total and that’s been the norm in all four second round playoff series’ so far. I expect to see a bit of a shift on Saturday, however, as this series moves to Philadelphia for Game 3. The 76ers are down 2-0 in the series but they’re not about to throw in the towel. A wise man once said a series doesn’t truly begin until the home team loses (or something to that effect). Here, I look for a determined effort from the 76ers as they do a much better job of defending the perimeter and preventing all of those easy Celtics looks that we saw in the first two games of the series. On the flip side, I think what you see is what you get from the 76ers offense. Ben Simmons is likely to play better, but I do still believe they’re in tough against a scrappy Celtics defense. Boston will continue to pester Philadelphia’s go-to guys and keep the score within reason in this matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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05-04-18 | Rockets -3.5 v. Jazz | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 10:30 pm et on Friday. The Rockets got off to a miserable start in Game 2 on Wednesday night, showing very little life and very much looking like a team that thought it would be able to sleepwalk its way to a series sweep. The Jazz pushed back and despite relaxing a bit and letting the Rockets back in the game in the third quarter, ultimately pulled away for a decisive victory to even the series at one game apiece. Now the series shifts to Salt Lake City and I expect the Rockets to come out with a lot more fire, and certainly put forth a more inspired effort. I can’t help but think this line would have been a little higher had Houston rolled to another victory in Game 2. Instead we’re looking at a short number to back what will undoubtedly be a highly-motivated Rockets squad that has shifted its attention back to the Jazz following the Game 2 wake-up call. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-03-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +4 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Celtics continue to get no respect from the betting marketplace as they once again find themselves in the underdog role on Thursday night. I can't help but feel that's just the way they like it. The home team has gone a perfect 8-0 SU in all Celtics game in these playoffs and I see that trend continuing here. The 76ers have enjoyed a tremendous season, not just SU but ATS as well. With that being said I didn't have them advancing past the Celtics at the onset of this series. Their time will come - just not sure this is the year. Boston is brimming with confidence right now and while most expect Philadelphia to bounce back, I believe the 76ers will have a tough time winning, let alone covering the spread. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-02-18 | Jazz v. Rockets -11 | 116-108 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I believe it's highly unlikely that the Jazz are going to hold the Rockets to 110 points again on Wednesday night. I'm also not convinced that Utah can improve much offensively. Expect another lopsided result in favor of the Rockets in Game 2. Of course, Houston has had Utah's number this season, going a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS. The Rockets were able to shift into cruise control in the opener of this series on Sunday. While they can expect to get more of a challenge from the Jazz, I believe it's only a matter of time before Houston once again pulls away. The Jazz have exceeded most expectations reaching the second round of the playoffs. But that's as far as they go. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 215 | 113-112 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Despite Indiana pushing the pace for much of the series, we still saw the 'under' cash in five of the Cavs seven games in the opening round. The 'over' came through in the final two games of that series, only after the oddsmakers made considerable adjustments to the total. Here in Game 1 of this much anticipated showdown between the Cavs and Raptors I don't expect Lebron James to find the going nearly as easy as it was in Game 7 against the Pacers. Despite dealing with muscle cramps, Lebron still managed to have his way with Indiana but will face a significant challenge against the Raptors on Tuesday. On the flip side, the Raptors are likely to face more resistance than they saw against the Wizards. Save for Games 3 and 4 in Washington, when Toronto simply didn't bring its 'A' game, the Raptors were able to cruise past the Wizards, scoring at will at times. We've seen some high-scoring affairs between the Raps and Cavs this season but I expect to see a different type of contest play out in the series opener. Take the under (10*). |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +3.5 | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Just feels like the wrong team is favored in this matchup, largely due to the circumstances by which the two teams got this point. The 76ers rolled past the Heat, facing little resistance along the way. Meanwhile, the Celtics were pushed to the limit by the Bucks, needing a big second half effort in Game 7 at home on Saturday night to advance. This has the makings of another long series and I certainly expect to see the 76ers hang tough in games played here in Beantown. With that being said, I don't believe the Celtics are getting any respect at all with this pointspread in the opener. Boston has faced a ton of adversity this season and so it should be comfortable entering this series as the underdog. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -5.5 | 101-105 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Indiana at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. Despite the fact that the Pacers have looked like the better team for much of this series, I have no problem with laying the points with the Cavs on Sunday afternoon. It comes as a surprise to most that we're seeing a seventh and deciding game in this series. Most thought the Cavs would roll past the Pacers but that has been far from the case. Keep in mind, Cleveland checked in as seven and eight-point favorites in the first two games in this series. Now we've seen the line drop to a more reasonable number, but in a must-win situation, I expect the Cavs will come to play. We won with the Pacers on Friday night, as that spot certainly favored the home team with their backs against the wall. Maybe the Cavs don't deserve to win this series, but I'm confident that Lebron James will have his squad ready. We're being asked to lay a reasonable number with what I still feel is the superior team. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-28-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 34 h 23 m | Show |
NBA First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Bucks in Game 6 of this series on Thursday night as they ultimately pulled away for a convincing win, sending the series back to Boston for a seventh and deciding game on Saturday. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Celtics in this one, however, as it's now Brad Stevens turn to make the necessary adjustments and Boston's opportunity to defend its home floor, as it has throughout this series, and advance to the second round. Home court advantage is of course what the Celtics fought for all season, and it has certainly paid off in this series, with the home side winning all six contests. I think the fact that things have tightened up considerably does favor the Celtics here. We saw the Bucks struggle to score in Game 5 in Boston, managing only 87 points and I expect to see a similar story unfold here. Even in Game 6, it took a huge effort from Giannis Antetokounmpo with 31 points and 14 rebounds to secure a Bucks victory. In that must-win situation for Milwaukee, Boston showed plenty of fight, pulling with a bucket with just over seven minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Bucks ultimately had the greater will to win and prevailed, but here I believe we'll see that role belong to the Celtics. Expect Boston to bring its best effort of the series on Saturday night. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Friday. There's no reason for the Pacers to wave the white flag after dropping a tough one on Lebron James' last second heroics in Game 5. Indiana has been an excellent home team all season long, and even when the Pacers didn't bring their 'A' game back in Game 4 at home, they still only lost by four points. Look for the Pacers to make a last stand so to speak and force a seventh and deciding game in Cleveland where really anything can happen. Indiana has been right there with the heavily favored Cavs throughout this series and nothing changes on Friday night. Take Indiana (10*). |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Boston at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Celtics took back control of this series and pushed the Bucks to the brink of elimination with a 92-87 victory in Game 5 of this series but I look for Milwaukee to answer back on its home floor on Thursday night. Celtics coach Brad Stevens made all the right moves last game, including inserting rookie Semi Ojeleye into the starting lineup to help defensively against Giannis Antetokounmpo. Of course, the return of Marcus Smart also gave the Celtics a big lift in a game they needed to win. With that being said, the margin of victory was still just five points. The home team has won all five games in this series so far, and while a few of those could have gone either way, each team has also recorded a blowout win on its home floor. While I'm not certain we'll see a blowout here, I do believe we'll see the Bucks make the necessary adjustments and force a seventh and deciding game in Boston. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-25-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Utah at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz will be looking to close out the Thunder in what would be a surprising result to most. I'm not convinced the Thunder can get all the way back in this series, but I do expect them to take a stand on their home floor on Wednesday night. Keep in mind, the Jazz are just 21-22 on the road this season while Oklahoma City has a decided home court edge having gone 28-15 here at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Russell Westbrook talked a good game following Game 3 of this series but wasn't able to follow it up with his performance on the floor in Game 4. Look for him to make amends as he helps guide the Thunder to a win and cover on Wednesday. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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04-24-18 | Heat v. 76ers -10 | 91-104 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Heat put up a good fight at home in Game 4 of this series but now that they're down 3-1, I don't see them making a big final stand in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. The Heat have actually shown a tendency to fold the tent in this series, losing a pair of games by 27 and 20 points. The 76ers have certainly been a force at home this season, going 31-11 SU while outscoring the opposition by right around nine points per contest. Meanwhile, the Heat are six games under .500 on the road and simply don't score enough to keep up with what will surely be a highly-motivated 76ers squad on Tuesday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-23-18 | Rockets -5.5 v. Wolves | 119-100 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Rockets were set back on their heels in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night as the T'Wolves ran them out of the building in a 121-105 victory. I believe the shoe will be on the other foot on Monday, however, as Houston aims to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series. Note that the Rockets had won eight straight meetings in this series prior to Saturday's contest. The T'Wolves have gone 2-1 ATS in this playoff series so far to snap a four-game ATS winning streak by the Rockets. Houston didn't bring the proper levels of focus and intensity to Saturday's game, but it will here. Take Houston (10*). |
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04-22-18 | Cavs v. Pacers | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Indiana at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. The Cavs may be down in this series but I'm not about to count out a Lebron James-led team, certainly not in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs. The Cavs by no means played their best game on Friday night, but they were still right there, losing by only a basket. While the pressure should rest squarely on the Cavs shoulders heading into this one, I actually believe it might be the Pacers that come out a little tight now that they've regained the series lead. It's not a must-win situation for Cleveland but it certainly can't afford to give the Pacers any more confidence at this stage of the series. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-21-18 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 215 | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 2:35 pm et on Saturday. We've seen three consecutive high-scoring affairs to open this series but I'm looking for the defenses to settle in a little bit on Saturday afternoon in Miami. The 76ers welcomed Joel Embiid back to the lineup in Game 3 and didn't miss a beat, putting up 128 points in a victory. I do believe we may see a misstep from the 76ers in this matchup on Saturday, however, as the Heat will certainly bring more intensity than we saw on Thursday. Note that the two regular season meetings here in Miami totaled only 203 and 207 points. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 218 | 103-122 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Washington at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Washington on Friday night. The Raptors have controlled this series from the opening tipoff, taking both games in Toronto before the scene shifts to Washington. We've missed the mark with the 'under' so far in this series but I won't hesitate to go back to the well here as I expect to see both teams step up their defensive game in what becomes the pivotal game of the series to date. The Wizards need to pick up the intensity at the defensive end of the floor first and foremost after offering no resistance at all in the first two games. I'm confident they'll do just that back at home, and Toronto will follow suit. Take the under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy Basketball Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-21-19 | Creighton v. Georgetown -1.5 | Top | 91-87 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
01-19-19 | Dayton v. St Bonaventure +3 | Top | 89-86 | Push | 0 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
01-18-19 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2 | 75-61 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
01-17-19 | Manhattan v. St. Peter's -6 | 58-56 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
01-16-19 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Warriors | 140-147 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
01-16-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -1.5 | 129-109 | Loss | -118 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
01-16-19 | Spurs v. Mavs +1 | 105-101 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
01-16-19 | Butler -2 v. DePaul | 87-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
01-15-19 | Warriors v. Nuggets +2 | 142-111 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
01-15-19 | Seton Hall v. Providence -1.5 | 63-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
01-14-19 | Wisconsin +4 v. Maryland | 60-64 | Push | 0 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
01-11-19 | Iona v. Niagara -1 | 90-95 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
01-09-19 | Arizona State v. California +10 | 80-66 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
01-09-19 | Pacers +6.5 v. Celtics | 108-135 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
01-08-19 | Manhattan v. Marist UNDER 123 | 63-78 | Loss | -122 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
01-07-19 | Spurs v. Pistons +3.5 | 119-107 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
01-07-19 | Niagara v. Fairfield -4 | 59-77 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
01-03-19 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | 135-134 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
01-02-19 | Hawks +5 v. Wizards | 98-114 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
12-25-18 | Lakers v. Warriors -8.5 | 127-101 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 39 m | Show | |
12-25-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 222.5 | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 44 h 16 m | Show | |
12-22-18 | Suns v. Wizards -5.5 | 146-149 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
12-21-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -1 | 120-107 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
12-21-18 | Pacers -2 v. Nets | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
12-19-18 | Spurs v. Magic +1 | 129-90 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
12-14-18 | Warriors v. Kings +8.5 | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
12-14-18 | Knicks v. Hornets -11 | 126-124 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
12-11-18 | Blazers +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
12-08-18 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -2.5 | 111-88 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
12-08-18 | Nets v. Knicks -3 | 112-104 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
12-08-18 | Rockets -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
12-07-18 | Raptors -9 v. Nets | 105-106 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
12-05-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +11.5 | Top | 129-105 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
12-04-18 | Blazers v. Mavs -2 | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
12-03-18 | Nuggets v. Raptors -6 | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
11-30-18 | Pelicans v. Heat +3 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
11-28-18 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 218 | Top | 89-128 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
11-27-18 | Knicks v. Pistons -7 | Top | 108-115 | Push | 0 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
11-21-18 | Kings +9.5 v. Jazz | 119-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
11-21-18 | Blazers +6 v. Bucks | 100-143 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
11-20-18 | Nets v. Heat -3 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
11-20-18 | Raptors v. Magic +7.5 | 93-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
11-20-18 | Duquesne v. Notre Dame OVER 140 | 56-67 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
11-16-18 | Oakland +8 v. UNLV | 61-74 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
11-16-18 | Raptors v. Celtics -1.5 | 116-123 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
11-14-18 | Blazers +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10-22-18 | Hornets +9.5 v. Raptors | 106-127 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
10-19-18 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 208.5 | 87-105 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
06-08-18 | Warriors -5 v. Cavs | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 38 m | Show | |
06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 217 | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
06-06-18 | Warriors -4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 59 h 46 m | Show |
06-03-18 | Cavs +11.5 v. Warriors | 103-122 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 215 | 103-122 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
05-31-18 | Cavs +12.5 v. Warriors | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
05-28-18 | Warriors -5.5 v. Rockets | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 208.5 | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
05-27-18 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 200 | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
05-27-18 | Cavs +3 v. Celtics | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
05-24-18 | Warriors -1 v. Rockets | 94-98 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
05-22-18 | Rockets +8.5 v. Warriors | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
05-21-18 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 207 | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
05-20-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 226 | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 42 m | Show | |
05-19-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Cavs | 86-116 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 21 m | Show | |
05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 205 | 86-116 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 17 m | Show | |
05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225 | 105-127 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
05-15-18 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5 | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | 119-106 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
05-13-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +2 | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | 112-114 | Win | 102 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 226.5 | Top | 104-113 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
05-07-18 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 214 | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
05-07-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. 76ers | 92-103 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
05-06-18 | Rockets -5 v. Jazz | 100-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
05-06-18 | Warriors -6 v. Pelicans | 118-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
05-06-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans UNDER 231 | 118-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
05-05-18 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 216 | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
05-05-18 | Raptors +4.5 v. Cavs | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
05-05-18 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 206.5 | 101-98 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
05-04-18 | Rockets -3.5 v. Jazz | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
05-03-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +4 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
05-02-18 | Jazz v. Rockets -11 | 116-108 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 215 | 113-112 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +3.5 | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -5.5 | 101-105 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
04-28-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 34 h 23 m | Show |
04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
04-25-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
04-24-18 | Heat v. 76ers -10 | 91-104 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
04-23-18 | Rockets -5.5 v. Wolves | 119-100 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
04-22-18 | Cavs v. Pacers | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
04-21-18 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 215 | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
04-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 218 | 103-122 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 26 m | Show |