At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Cleveland Browns/Los Angeles Chargers game.  The Browns held their two previous opponents -- Chicago and Minnesota -- to 6 and 7 points, respectively.  But neither the Bears nor the Vikings will be in the post-season.  Los Angeles, on the other hand, is looking every bit like a Super Bowl contender.  The Chargers' offense has tallied 30 and 28 points its last two games, and will put pressure on the Browns' defense.  Justin Herbert has completed 69% of his passes for 1178 yards and nine TDs.  I also believe Cleveland will find success on the ground behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, as the Chargers rank 29th against the run, and are giving up 140 yards per game, on a horrid 5.26 yards per carry!  For technical support, consider that NFL teams have gone OVER the total 61.1% of the time when the line was greater than 46 points, if they gave up 15 (or less) points combined over the previous two games.  Take the OVER!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Philadelphia Eagles/Carolina Panthers game.  After giving up just 6 and 17 points in their first two games, the Eagles' defense has been leaky of late, as it's given up 41 and 42 points the past two weeks -- both double-digit losses.  Likewise, Carolina's defense surrendered 36 points last week to Dallas (in a 36-28 loss), after giving up just 7 and 9 its two previous games.  I look for both defenses to return to form on this Sunday, and play much better than in recent weeks.  For technical support, consider that the Eagles have gone 'UNDER' in 56 of 80 games after playing a game where 58+ points were scored.  And NFL games have gone under the total 58% since 1985 if both teams were off a game where more than 60 points was scored.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos.  After starting the year with an impressive 23-16 win over (arguably) the AFC's most impressive team, the Steelers have stumbled badly, with three consecutive defeats to the Raiders, Bengals and Packers.  And they scored just 17, 10 and 17 points in those three games.  The good news here is that Pittsburgh tends to bounce back at home off back-to-back losses, as they're 37-17 straight-up, 33-21 ATS, and 34-18-2 OVER the total.  Pittsburgh's also 66-40 OVER the total when the line has been less than 40 points.  Likewise, the Broncos also stumbled on offense last week, as they lost 23-7 to Baltimore.  But the Broncos are 14-1-1 OVER the total after losing a game in which less than 33 total points were scored.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New England Patriots/Houston Texans game.  The Texans were shut out last week, 40-0, by the Buffalo Bills.  So, clearly, their offense behind rookie QB Davis Mills is a mess right now.  Of course, the oddsmakers have made their adjustments, and the over/under line for this game is more than 7 points lower than either game each of these teams played last week.  From my perspective, the oddsmakers have over-reacted, and there's significant value in taking the OVER in this game.  For technical support, consider than NFL games have gone OVER the total 65.5% over the last 42 years, if both teams were coming into the game off an UNDER, and both teams had over/under lines more than 6 points greater in their previous game than the current game.  Take the OVER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Carolina Panthers.  The Eagles come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, with each of their two previous defeats coming by double-digits.  But I love the Eagles this Sunday afternoon, as teams off 3+ losses have covered 60% vs. winning foes, if our team wasn't getting 4+ points.  And Philly is 39-21 ATS on the road off back to back defeats, including 22-8 ATS when the game was competitively-priced with a point spread less than 4 points.  Take the Eagles.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Las Vegas Raiders/Los Angeles Chargers game.  Each of these two AFC West division rivals has gone 'under' the total a significant amount of the time when playing a division foe.  To wit:  the Chargers are 80-33-1 UNDER the total when playing at home vs. an AFC West opponent.  And the Raiders are 62-37-1 UNDER the total on the road in division games.   And the 'under' also falls into a 20-1 Totals system of mine, as well as a 67-35 Monday Night Football Totals system.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over New Orleans.  New York is 0-3 to start the season.  But I won't pass up taking points from a Saints team which is an ugly 29-60 ATS as a home favorite vs. .500 (or worse) foes off a loss.  Moreover, winless teams are a superb 241-176 on the non-division road since 1980.  And, finally, the Giants are a wallet-fattening 17-0 ATS their last 17 NFC conference road games when they've owned a losing record.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans to go OVER the total.  Both of these teams come into this game off low-scoring games.  The Jets were shutout, 26-0, as a 10-point road underdog in Denver, while Tennessee won, 25-16, as a 4.5-point home favorite vs. the Colts.  New York has played each of its three games under the total, while the Titans have played two of their first three under the total.  And this general paucity of scoring in the games played by these teams thus far has led to the number on this game moving 2 to 3 points down from the opener.  I think this is a severe over-reaction to the fact that the Jets have scored just 20 points this season.  Indeed, New York's first 3 opponents (Denver, Carolina, New England) currently rank #1, #2 and #5 in scoring defense!  The Titans, on the other hand, are giving up a whopping 28 points per game, and rank #25 in scoring defense.  I fully expect the Flyboys to be able to put up some points here, at home, on this Sunday afternoon.  Tennessee has played 7 of its last 8 (and 12 of its last 16) road games over the total, and has surrendered an average of 28.63 ppg in its last eight road games.  And it's 9-0-1 'over' the total its last 10 games off a home win.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Cincinnati.  Last week, the Bengals went into the Steel City, and upset Pittsburgh, 24-10, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, the Bengals are a horrid 0-11 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points off a division win by more than 6 points.  The Jaguars are off to an 0-3 start in the Urban Meyer era, and each loss has been by double-digits.  But we'll step in and take the Jags as a big road underdog in this Nationally Televised game.  Over the years, the league's worst teams have stepped up when the spotlight was on, as teams with a win percentage less than .200 are 15-4 ATS as underdogs of more than 7 points on Monday/Thursday night games.  Even better:  winless road underdogs are 212-152-6 ATS in non-division games, including 16-5 ATS if they were off three straight double-digit defeats.  Take the Jaguars + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Tampa Bay.  The Buccaneers come into this game off a blowout, 48-25 win over Atlanta.  That was also the 10th straight win by the Buccaneers dating back to last season.  But defending Super Bowl champs have struggled off blowout wins by 20+ points, and especially on the road vs. non-division foes, as they've covered just 34.3% over the last 42 seasons.  That doesn't bode well for Tom Brady & Co. on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that NFL road favorites, off back to back wins, in which they scored more than 30 points, have covered just 48 of 125 vs. non-division foes.  Take the Rams as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Raiders come into this game off back-to-back upset wins to start the season.  And they've been installed as a home favorite over Miami, which was shutout last week by Buffalo, 35-0.  We'll play on the Dolphins to bounce back in this game, as .500 (or better) single-digit road underdogs are 91-59 ATS in regular season, non-division games since 1980 after failing to cover the spread by more than 14 points in their previous game.  Even better:  the Raiders have been huge money-burners as favorites, as they're 20-39-1 ATS their last 60 as chalk, including 10-33-1 ATS vs. foes that didn't have a winning ATS record.  The Dolphins are 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 meetings, including 6-1-1 ATS off a loss.  And they're 17-6 ATS their last 23 games as an underdog.  Take Miami + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Denver Broncos.  This is the only match-up this week which pits a 2-0 SU/ATS team vs. an 0-2 SU/ATS team.  Many bettors might rush to the side of the Broncos, given that they will be playing their home opener off two impressive road wins to start the season.  But 2-0 NFL teams have only covered 28% as home favorites over the last 42 years vs. foes off to an 0-2 SU/ATS start!  And home favorites playing their home opener after starting the season with 2 (or more) road games have also been horrible, as they've gone 8-23-2 ATS since 2005 (and 39-61-3 ATS since 1980).  Take the points with the Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the New York Giants.  Atlanta has opened the 2021 season with back to back blowout losses -- by 26 to Philly, and by 23 to Tampa Bay.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Falcons here, as a small road underdog.  But consider that, in Week 3, NFL teams that lost their first two games each by 9+ points, and also failed to cover the spread in each game by 9+ points, have covered 70.9% as an underdog in Week 3.  The Giants have covered just one of their last eight games as a non-division favorite.  And they're 25-37-1 ATS as a home favorite vs. non-division foes off a loss, including 4-15-1 ATS when favored by 3 points or less.  Take Atlanta.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Football Team over the Buffalo Bills.  We played on the Bills last week, as it was a perfect "bounce-back" spot following their upset loss in Week 1, as the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  And Buffalo rewarded us with a 35-0 victory.  Unfortunately, NFL teams off shutout wins have covered just 73 of 181 games vs. .333 (or better) foes off a straight-up win, including just 3-23 ATS if our 'play-against' team (here, Buffalo) scored 35+ points in its shutout victory.  Grab the points with Washington.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over the Tennessee Titans.  The Colts should be starting QB Carson Wentz this afternoon, and that's enough for us to pull the trigger on Indianapolis as a road underdog.  Indianapolis has a brutal opening schedule this season (the hardest in the NFL), with its first five games against teams with winning records last season (Seahawks, Rams, Titans, Dolphins, Ravens).  The only other team to even come close to this difficult of an opening schedule is the Raiders, who opened with three teams that had winning records last season (Ravens, Steelers, Dolphins).  So, one shouldn't necessarily over-react to the fact that the Colts are 0-2 to start the season.  They'll play their first division contest of 2021 this afternoon when they travel to Nashville to take on the 1-1 Titans, who upset Seattle, 33-30, as a 6.5-point road underdog last week.  Unfortunately for Tennessee, teams off big upset wins over superior teams generally have letdowns when matched up against inferior teams in their next game, as they cover only 40.8% of the time since 1980.  And Tennessee has historically been a poor favorite, as it's 32-53-2 ATS when laying more than 3 points.  Meanwhile, Indy is 44-21 ATS off a loss, including 23-8-1 ATS on the road.  Take the Colts + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Detroit.  Last week, Aaron Rodgers played one of the worst games of his storied career.  The Packers were favored by 3.5 points against New Orleans, yet only scored three in a blowout loss by 35 points.  But one of the things I often like to do is play on teams that scored less points in an upset loss than they were actually favored by, as those teams have bounced back in their next game much more often than not.  Even better:  Green Bay is a jaw-dropping 34-6 ATS its last 40 (and 10-0 ATS its last 10) with Rodgers at QB, following a game in which it scored less than 23 points!  And Green Bay is also an awesome 50-21-1 ATS in Rodgers' starts when favored by less than 13 points against a foe off an ATS win, including 10-1 ATS if the Packers were upset in their previous game.  Lay the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over Kansas City.  Last week, the Ravens were upset, in overtime, by Las Vegas, while Kansas City eked out a 4-point win over a very good Browns team.  The good news for the Ravens is that NFL home teams off a upset road loss have cashed 60.3% since 1980 vs. foes off a straight-up win.  And Baltimore has cashed 76.4% as an underdog over the last 42 years off an upset loss, when matched-up against a non-division foe off a SU win.  Take the Ravens + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Last week, the Dolphins were out-yarded, 393-259, by New England, but benefited from two fumbles by the Patriots to escape with a 17-16 upset win.  This week, they'll take on a Bills team which is no doubt smarting from its 23-16 upset home loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday.  And the Bills also had tough luck, as they out-yarded the Steelers, 371 to 252, but lost the turnover battle (and the war).  Over the last 42 seasons, Game 2 road teams off upset losses have cashed 61% vs. foes off upset wins.  Even better:  Buffalo's 13-2 ATS vs. the Dolphins, if Miami was off an upset win in its previous game.  And the Bills are 33-13-1 ATS off a loss, if their opponent was off an upset win.  Take Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over the Houston Texans.  Houston pulled off one of Week 1's biggest shockers when they upset Jacksonville, 37-21, as a 3.5-point home underdog.  Unfortunately for Houston, double-digit road underdogs, off a double-digit upset win at home, have covered just 32.2% over the past 42 NFL seasons, including just 23% vs. a foe off a point spread win.  Take Cleveland to rout the Texans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  Last week, the Saints routed Green Bay, which was the #1 NFC seed in the previous season's playoffs.  But NFL road favorites (or PK) that upset an opponent in Week 1, which won 10+ games the previous games, have generally had a letdown in Week 2, as they've cashed just 38% since 1980.  Take the Panthers + the points over New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  Last season, the Raiders were a .500 ball club, and missed the playoffs, while Baltimore went 11-5, and reached the Divisional round of the playoffs.  Over the years, it's been unprofitable to back playoff teams from the previous season in Game 1, if they were matched up against non-playoff teams.  This is the 4th of such meetings this season, and the point spread result of the first three (Cowboys over Bucs, Cardinals over Titans, and Chargers over Football Team) all went the way of the team which failed to make the playoffs last season.  And when such Game 1 meetings have occurred on Monday Night Football, our non-playoff teams have gone 14-6 ATS.  That bodes well for Las Vegas today.  As does the fact that Vegas is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 Monday Night games, and 16-11 ATS as a non-division home dog of +4 (or more) points, while Baltimore is a wallet-breaking 7-20 ATS as a non-division road favorite priced at -4 (or more) points.  Take the Raiders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Miami.  When these two AFC East division rivals last met, the Dolphins pounded the Patriots, 22-12, as a 2-point home underdog.  That defeat prevented Bill Belichick's men from having their 20th consecutive winning season.  With revenge on their mind, I expect the Patriots to make a statement here, at home.  Indeed, New England is 20-4 ATS when playing with revenge against a division opponent which upset it in the previous meeting.  And it's also 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings at home vs. Miami, and 16-5-3 ATS in its home openers when priced from -3 to -10 points.  Lay the points with New England. 

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over the New York Giants.  This past preseason, the Giants failed to win a game.  And that doesn't bode well for New York in this season opener, as NFL teams have gone 7-24 ATS their last 31 season openers after going winless in the preseason.  Even worse:  New York is 3-14 ATS its last 17 as a single-digit home underdog, including 0-8 ATS its last eight vs. non-division foes.  Meanwhile, Denver is 16-9-1 ATS in its season-openers vs. non-division opponents, and it's 19-12 ATS as a road favorite of -3 (or more) points.  Ultimately, this will be a difficult match-up for Daniel Jones, who will be without injured TE Evan Engram as an option.  Denver's secondary is going to give New York's receivers fits.  With guys like Callahan, Surtain and Fuller, the Broncos will contain Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton.  The Giants will no doubt lean heavily on Saquon Barkley this afternoon, but he is coming off major surgery, and could be on a snap count.  All in all, Denver has a clear advantage in this match-up, and should win the game going away.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our AFC South Game of the Month is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over the Houston Texans.  Last season, the Jaguars won just one game (which enabled them to draft QB Trevor Lawrence in the Draft), while Houston wasn't much better at 4-12.  But the fact that the Jaguars are favored on the road in this season opener should tell you what most expect from the Texans this season (and it isn't much).  Last year, Houston won both meetings vs. the Jaguars.  Unfortunately, NFL teams have covered just 36% in Game 1 over the last 31 years if their opponent was a double-revenging division rival.  Take Jacksonville to blow out Houston on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Falcons have dominated their home openers over the years, as they're 17-5 ATS their last 22.  And this is a good set-up for the homestanding team, given Philadelphia's road woes, of late (0-6 SU/ATS last six).  Both teams will be breaking in new head coaches:  Arthur Smith in Atlanta, and Nick Sirianni in Phiily.  But Smith has the huge benefit of having a much more experienced quarterback in Matt Ryan.  And Ryan will be able to pick apart the Eagles' shaky secondary this afternoon, as I expect Calvin Ridley to torment Eagles CB Darius Slay.  And rookie TE Kyle Pitts also should be in for a big afternoon in his NFL debut, as the Eagles don't have anyone who can stay with him.  The Falcons are a solid 30-16-1 ATS when priced from -3 to -6.5 points when they didn't own a losing record.  Lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 6:30 pm, on February 7, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over Kansas City.  These two teams played here, in Tampa, back in late November.  And the Chiefs won a 27-24 game, as a 3.5-point road favorite.  But that was the last game the Buccaneers have lost, as they've ripped off seven straight wins to reach the Super Bowl.  And they'll have the unusual benefit of playing the game in their home stadium, which will be the first time in Super Bowl history that a team has played the game in its home stadium (though others have played in their home region before).  The most impressive thing about Tampa's path to this game is that it had to win all three playoff games on the road.  And the Bucs scored 30+ points in each of their Playoff wins.  The win vs. Green Bay was especially impressive given that the Packers hadn't allowed an opponent to score more than 28 points at Lambeau Field in their previous 15 games.  The Chiefs, by virtue of their #1 seed, had a much easier path to this title game.  They played through an injury to Patrick Mahomes in their 5-point win over the Cleveland Browns.  And then they played, perhaps, their best game of the season when they routed a very good Buffalo Bills squad, 38-24, in the AFC Championship game.  Unfortunately, though, for Kansas City, NFL teams are a soft 23-37-1 ATS on the road after scoring 35+ points at home in their previous game.  And, even worse, in non-division match-ups between winning teams, favorites of 7 or less points (or PK) are a woeful 20-47-1 ATS away from home vs. revenge-minded clubs.  Certainly, Kansas City is the league's most dangerous offensive team, with Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce.  It averages 29.6 ppg, which is in line with last year's title-winning club (29.8 ppg).  But the Chiefs' defense dropped off a little this season, as it's giving up 22.38 ppg, which ranks as the 6th-worst such mark of the 82 teams over the past 41 seasons.  And that doesn't bode well for Kansas City, as NFL teams are 0-8 ATS in Super Bowls when priced from -2.5 to -6 points, if they give up 18+ points on defense.  Finally, Tom Brady's teams have gone 18-5 ATS when playing with revenge, and not favored by more than 1 point, including 6-0 ATS the last six at home, or on a neutral field.  Grab the points with Tampa Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills to go 'over' the total.  This play is largely technical in nature, as it falls into two very good Playoff totals systems of mine that are 33-15 and 73-38 since 1991.  And we'll look for a high-scoring game regardless of who is under center for Kansas City on Sunday.  For further technical support, consider that the Chiefs are 19-12 'over' the total in games after both they and their opponent went 'under' in their previous games, while Playoff games have sailed 'over' the total 62% since 1980 when the line was greater than 53 points, and the two teams averaged a combined 59+ points on offense.  Finally, NFL Conference Championship games have gone 'over' 63% when the line was greater than 46 points.  Take the Bills and Chiefs to go over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Tampa Bay.  Two weeks ago, in the Wild Card round, we played on the Rams to upset Seattle as our #1 Side Play in the opening round of the Playoffs.  Then, last week, we tabbed Green Bay over the Rams as our top Side play in the quarterfinals.  For the semi-finals, we'll once again take the Packers as our #1 play, and go against a Buccaneers team playing its 3rd straight road game.  Last Saturday, the Ravens also were saddled with their 3rd straight road game, and they were annihilated by Buffalo, 17-3.  In the NFL Playoffs, since 1980, teams playing their 3rd straight game on the road are a woeful 22-40-3 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for Tampa Bay at Lambeau.  And neither does the fact that Green Bay is an awesome 11-0 ATS with Aaron Rodgers under center, if the Packers weren't favored by 13+ points, and their opponent was off a point spread win, and playing their 2nd straight road game.  Of course, it's true that Tampa Bay handed the Packers their worst loss of the seasons -- a 38-10 trouncing.  But Green Bay has gone 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS with Rodgers at QB, when playing with revenge, and favored between -2 and -7 points. Take the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over New Orleans.  This is a big revenge game for Tom Brady & Co., as they were blown out, 38-3, at home in the previous meeting.  We played on New Orleans in that game, but will take Tampa Bay this evening.  For technical support, consider that revenge-minded teams that lost by 30+ points earlier in the season, have gone 6-0 ATS as single-digit underdogs.  Even better:  Tom Brady's a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season by 13+ points, and 11-1 SU/ATS his last 12 games vs. division rivals when playing with revenge (regardless of the margin of defeat).  And, finally, NFC South division teams have gone 10-0 ATS since 2003 when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat earlier in the season.  Take Tampa Bay + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Cleveland.  Last week, the Browns won their biggest game in decades when they went into Pittsburgh, and upset their rivals, 48-37, as a 5-point underdog.  But off that huge win, we'll fade the Browns this afternoon.  In general, I prefer to go against teams off big offensive playoff wins.  And especially when such teams don't have great defenses to match their high-octane offenses.  And Cleveland does not.  The Browns are scoring 26.82 ppg this season, but also giving up the exact amount, on defense.  In contrast, Kansas City only gives up 22.62 ppg.  And to put the Browns' defense into context, consider that there have been just 6 NFL teams of 480 that made the playoffs over the last 41 seasons to have given up more than 26 points per game!  We'll go against Cleveland, as NFL teams that scored more than 38 points in their previous game are 0-11 ATS on the road if they didn't have a better defense than their opponent.  That doesn't bode well for Cleveland at Arrowhead this afternoon.   Nor does the fact that teams that covered the spread by more than 13 points the previous week have cashed just 16% in the Playoffs vs. defending Super Bowl champions.  And, finally, Andy Reid-coached teams have gone 67% ATS, including 6-2, 75% ATS in the Playoffs, when they were off a bye week, which gave Reid an extra week to prepare.  Take the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Buffalo/Baltimore game.  Last week, the Ravens were favored by 3.5 points against Tennessee, and won a low-scoring game, 20-13.  And that was the eighth straight Playoff game (and 10th of the last 11) where the Ravens went 'UNDER' the total as a favorite.  But when the Ravens have been installed as an underdog (as they are, here), then it's been a completely different story, as they've gone OVER in those games 6-3-1.  Likewise, the Bills have gone OVER 29-14-1 as a favorite (compared to 18-8 'under' as an underdog).  We'll take the OVER on Saturday night, as each of these teams average more than 28 points per game on offense.  And in match-ups between two teams that average 28+ points, NFL games have gone 'over' the total 61% of the time since 1985.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Green Bay/Los Angeles Rams game, as it falls into a 52-24 Totals system of mine.  This game has all the earmarks of a high-scoring game.  The Packers are averaging 31.8 ppg, and will be playing at home following a Bye week last weekend.  And high-octane NFL offenses that average more than 31 ppg have gone 'over' the total 23-11-1 since 1985 when playing at home in the Playoffs.  Moreover, in his career, Aaron Rodgers has gone 'over' the total 32-14 when the Packers were favored from -4.5 to -7 points, including 14-2 'over' their last 16.  And, with Rodgers at the helm, Green Bay has gone 'over' the total in 12 of 18 playoff games.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Baltimore/Tennessee game.  The Titans have gone 12-3-1 'over' the total this season, including 3-0 'over' their last three, and 7-1 'over' their last eight.  The only game the Titans have played in the season's 2nd half which didn't go 'over' the total was their 31-10 victory over the offensively-challenged Jaguars (who averaged just 19.1 ppg this year).  But Tennessee will be playing the Ravens this Sunday afternoon.  And John Harbaugh's men have scored 29.25 ppg, including 37.2 ppg over their last five games.  For technical support, consider that, over the last 41 seasons, NFL teams that played 80+ percent of their games 'over' the total, have gone 'over' in their Playoff game 71% of the time.  Even better:  the Titans come into this game off a 41-38 win at Houston last Sunday.  And the Titans have now gone 'over' the total 10-0-1 off a win.  Finally, NFL Playoff games have gone 'over' the total 80% of the time over the past 20 years if a team's previous game totaled more than 76 points.  This will be a high-scoring game.  Take the Ravens/Titans 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Washington Football Team + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Football Team was fortunate it played in the NFC (L)East division this season, as it qualified for the Playoffs with a 7-9 record.  But every team is 0-0 when the Playoffs start, so there's no reason Washington can't find success in this tournament.  And, historically, mediocre teams have done VERY WELL in the NFL Playoffs, provided they played AT HOME.  Indeed, sub-.560 NFL teams have gone 5-0-1 SU/ATS at home in the NFL playoffs, including outright wins as a +7.5-point underdog (Denver/Pitt, 2012) and as a +10-point home underdog (Seattle/N.O., 2011).  In contrast, on the road, such teams have covered just 5 of 20 games.  The Buccaneers erupted for 44 points last week, in a 17-point win over Atlanta.  Unfortunately, NFL playoff teams have gone 34-51 ATS away from home after scoring 35+ points in their previous game (against an opponent which didn't score 35+ points in its previous game).  And Tampa's opponent last week -- Atlanta -- had a defensive average of 24.66 ppg, so it wasn't surprising the Bucs were able to post a lot of points.  But Tampa has struggled this season vs. foes (like Washington) with defensive averages of less than 21 ppg, as it's 0-4 ATS (compared to 9-3 ATS vs. foes with defenses that gave up 21+ ppg).  Meanwhile, Washington has excelled vs. high-octane offenses (like Tampa's) that score at least 28 ppg, as it's 4-0 ATS (compared to 5-7 ATS vs. foes with offense that don't score 28+ ppg).  And the Football Team held those 4 explosive offenses to just 17.75 ppg.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Los Angeles Rams/Seattle Seahawks game.  These two teams met just two weeks ago, and Seattle held the Rams to just 9 points, in a 20-9 win.  But playoff rematches of games involving a team which scored less than 10 points in the previous matchup have gone over the total 61% since 1980 due, in part, to that team's offense being much more productive in the Playoff game.  And .600 (or better) teams -- like the Rams -- that managed to score no more than 50 points combined over their three previous games, have gone 'over' the total 59-33, including over the total in 7 of 8 Playoff games!  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Seattle.  These two teams met two weeks ago in Seattle, and the Seahawks won, 20-9, as a 1.5-point home favorite.  The line for this game is slightly higher, given the injuries on the side of the Rams.  I like the underdog here, as revenge-minded NFL underdogs off a SU win have cashed 80% in the Wild Card round vs. division foes.  And the revenger in this NFC West division rivalry is 9-5 ATS, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog.  Even better:  the Rams own the superior defense, as it allows just 18.5 ppg (Seattle's defense allows 23.18).  And Playoff underdogs of +4 or less points, with a defense which rates at least 4.5 ppg better, have covered 71% over the last 41 years.  Take the Rams.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Washington.  The Eagles suffered an upset loss to Dallas last week, as they succumbed 37-17, as a 4.5-point favorite.  But off that defeat, we'll take Philly as a home underdog on Sunday night.  Indeed, over the past 36 years, NFL underdogs (or PK) off an upset loss by more than 10 points have gone 123-78-5 ATS vs. division rivals.  And the Football Team has covered just 59 of its last 158 games as a favorite, including 19 of 63 vs. division foes.  Take Philadelphia.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Jacksonville.  It seems like ages ago, but the Jaguars won their first game of the season (and their ONLY game this season) when they upset the Colts in Week 1, as a big home underdog.  I expect the Colts to avenge that loss today with a big victory at home.  Indeed, favorites of more than 13 points have covered 86% over the past 41 years when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Colts minus the points.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Broncos have been terrific as home underdogs, or small favorites over the years.  And especially if their opponent wasn't off a momentum-building SU/ATS win.  In that instance, the Broncos have gone 31-7 ATS at home when not favored by 2+ points, including 21-1-2 ATS when matched up against an opponent with a .625 (or worse) record.  Meanwhile, the Raiders are a dismal 12-22 ATS in their final road game of the season, including 0-5 ATS as a favorite.  Take Denver to blow out Las Vegas.

At

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Indianapolis Colts/Jacksonville Jaguars game.  This should be one of those games where the Colts can "name their score." Certainly, a blowout at half-time would not surprise.  And first-half blowouts often result in the leading team taking its foot off the gas in the 2nd half.  Dating back to 1985, NFL games with point spreads of 14+ points have gone 'under' the total 65.7% of the time in the season's final two weeks.  Take the 'under.'

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Los Angeles Rams/Arizona Cardinals game.  These two teams met four weeks ago, and the Rams won a 38-28 shootout.  The line for that game was 55 points, so it sailed over the total by 11 points.  Yes, a lot of offensive pieces are missing for this game (e.g., Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Darrell Henderson, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, etc.), but the oddsmakers' movement of this number down to this level was a vast over-reaction.  The 'over' falls into a 28-7 Totals system of mine, and we'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on Sunday afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Kansas City will be resting most of its better players, so they have been installed as a home underdog today vs. its division rival, the LA Chargers.  We'll lay the points with the Chargers, as underdogs off 5+ wins -- like Kansas City -- are a wallet-breaking 13-33 ATS when installed as an underdog of 3+ points.  And defending Super Bowl champs are a poor 4-13 ATS off back to back wins, if they are an underdog vs. an opponent off a win, including 1-7 vs. division rivals.  Finally, road favorites have covered 63% over the previous 20 seasons in the final week of the season, if they owned a WORSE record than the home team.  Take the Chargers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the NY Giants over the Dallas Cowboys.  Both of these NFC East division rivals have hopes of making the Playoffs.  And we'll take the homestanding Giants this afternoon.  It's true that Dallas has a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, while the NY Giants are on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  But over the last 41 years, road favorites of 7 or less points (or PK) are an unsightly 25% ATS vs. foes that were on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak!  Even worse, the Cowboys are 0-16 ATS in their final road game of the season when the game was competitively-priced with a point spread of less than 4 points!  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the under in the Minnesota/Detroit game.  Both of these also-rans have dismal defenses.  Minnesota gives up 29.3 ppg, while Detroit gives up 32.1 ppg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game in this meaningless, final game of the season.  But final games of the NFL season that involve at least one team with a defense which give up 28+ points have gone 'under' 67.3% since 1981.  The 'under' also falls into 113-74 and 103-47 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the under in the Los Angeles Chargers/Denver Broncos game.  These two 5-9 teams are playing out the string at this point after having a disappointing season.  Last week, Denver was routed by Buffalo, 48-19, while the Chargers won, 30-27, in overtime against Las Vegas.  However, but for the overtime session, the Chargers game would have gone 'under' the total, which would have been its fourth straight 'under.'  We'll play on the 'under' in this penultimate game of the season, as the Chargers have gone under 79-33-1 at home vs. division rivals, including each of the last seven vs. the Broncos.  Even better: NFL games with O/U lines of 45+ points have gone 'under' 58.2% if one team's most recent game totaled more than 65 points, while its opponent's most recent game totaled 55+ points.  Finally, the 'under' also falls into a 129-77 Totals system of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over Indianapolis.  After streaking out to an 11-0 record, the Steelers have dropped each of their last three games.  But the last two were both on the road, so I expect the Steelers to rebound at home this afternoon.  Indeed, since Dec. 20, 1981, winning teams have covered 69.0% at home, if they lost their two previous games on the road, and were favored by less than 10 points (or PK).  Take the Steelers.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last week, the Cincinnati Bengals seemingly did the Jaguars a favor when the upset the Steelers to move the Jaguars into the pole position to draft Clemson's star QB, Trevor Lawrence.  Of course, if the Jaguars upset the Bears this afternoon, those future plans would likely be dashed.  On the surface, it certainly looks like a tall task.  After all, the Jaguars have lost 13 straight games, while Chicago is making a late push for the playoffs.  But there's great risk in laying a lot of points with the Bears.  They have a negative scoring margin for the season.  And NFL teams with negative scoring margins are a horrid 1-19 ATS their last 20 on the road, when favored by 7+ points, at Game 6 forward, vs. an opponent not off a win.  Take the Jaguars + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens and NY Giants to go OVER the total.  Lamar Jackson & Co. have now scored 34, 47 and 40 points in their last three games.  Not surprisingly, each went 'over' the total.  And that's the way we will look in this game vs. New York, as five of the last six meetings between these teams have sailed 'over' the total.  It's true that the Giants' last few games have gone 'under,' but they've now gone 'over' 29-11 in games with O/U lines less than 48 points, if their two previous games went 'under.'  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over Miami.  The Dolphins upset division rival New England, 22-12, as a 1-point home dog last week.  And they've now been installed as a road favorite at Las Vegas.  We will go against Miami on Saturday night, as non-division road favorites have covered just 35.2% over the last 40 years if they were off an upset win at home over a division rival.  Even worse:  Miami has covered just 9 of 37 games, itself, off an upset win the previous week against a division foe, including 1-10 ATS its last 10 as a favorite of more than 2 points.  Take the Raiders + the points as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 'under' the total.  Last week, the Buccaneers spotted the Atlanta Falcons 17 points, and trailed 17-0 at the half, before storming back in the 2nd half for a 31-27 victory.  They're now installed as a double-digit favorite at Detroit, which lost 46-25 at Tennessee last Sunday.  Both of these teams have played their games predominantly over the total this season.  Detroit has gone 9-5 'over,' while Tampa has gone 8-6 'over.'  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here.  But be careful, as NFL games between two teams whose previous games both totaled 58+ points have also gone 'under' the total 57% over the last 41 years.  The 'under' also falls into 102-47, 107-76 and 267-211 Totals systems of mine.  This will be a relatively-low scoring game.  Take the Lions and Bucs 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals to go 'over' the total.  Both of these teams come into this Monday night game off a string of 4 unders in a row.  The Steelers' last four games have averaged 36 ppg, while Cincinnati's last four have averaged just 32 ppg.  Pittsburgh's problems have largely been on the offensive side of the ball, as they've not scored 20+ points in any of their last 3 games (after scoring 24+ in each of their first 10 games this season).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here.  But consider that NFL games have gone over the total 58% of the time over the last 41 seasons if both teams were riding an 'under' streak of at least four games.  That bodes well for the 'OVER' tonight.  As does the fact that the Steelers have sailed 'over' the total in 26 of 44 if they were on a 2-game (or worse) losing streak.   Take the Monday Night game 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Cleveland Browns.  Each of these two teams had its four-game win streak snapped last week.  Cleveland fell at home, 47-42, to Baltimore, while the Giants also lost at home, 26-7, to Arizona.  Both of these teams remain in contention for division titles:  New York sits one game behind the 6-7 Football Team, while the Browns are two games behind the 11-2 Steelers.  However, Cleveland's path to the playoffs, as a wild card entrant, is much more secure, as the Browns currently are tied for fifth place in the AFC.  We'll take the points with the home underdog Giants, as NFL home dogs have cashed 61.1% of non-division games at Game 14 forward if they were off a SU/ATS loss.  Even better:  NFL home dogs have gone 69-42 ATS in the regular season if they were off a double-digit loss, but had won their four games previous to that defeat.  And, finally, the Browns are 0-6 ATS their last six as road favorites.  Grab the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Kansas City.  Last week, the Saints were upset on the road at Philly.  But off that upset loss, I love New Orleans to bounce back against Kansas City on Sunday afternoon.  Indeed, in the 2nd half of the season, winning teams have cashed 64% over the last 41 years off an upset loss.  That's one reason I am going with New Orleans in an underdog role.  Another is that the Saints, with Sean Payton as head coach, have gone 57-24-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off a straight-up win, including a perfect 10-0 ATS at home when not laying more than 2 points.  The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 5 games.  And defending Super Bowl champs are now 0-16 ATS their last 16 games as non-division road favorites vs. .550 (or better) foes, if the defending champs were off a SU win.  Take New Orleans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Philadelphia.  The Cardinals bounced back off their 38-28 loss to the Los Angeles Rams by blowing out the NY Giants last Sunday, 26-7.  In the process, the Cards improved to 7-6, and are still alive for a post-season berth.  This weekend, they'll face another NFC East division foe, in Philadelphia.  The Eagles pulled off a major upset last week when they stunned New Orleans, 24-21, as a 7.5-point home underdog.  But off that big win, we will fade Philly this week.  Indeed, NFL underdogs of +6 (or more) points off a home upset victory over a .636 (or better) opponent, as a 6.5-point (or bigger) underdog, have generally had letdowns the following week, as they've covered just 12 of 50 games since 1991.  Even better:  if their opponent comes into the game off a straight-up win, then our system zooms to 19-3-1 ATS.  Take Arizona to blow out the Eagles.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Philadelphia/Arizona game.  The Cardinals' last four home games vs. non-division foes have gone 'over' the total, as have 29 of Philly's last 44 road games.  It's true that the Eagles had played six straight 'unders' before going over the total in last week's 24-21 victory over New Orleans.  But I consider that game a harbinger of things to come (at least, from an over/under perspective) as over the last 41 years, teams that finally go 'over' the total after 5+ unders, tend to go over the total a 2nd straight game more often than not.  Additionally, the Eagles and Cardinals fall into a Totals system of mine that has cashed 67% since 1980.  Take the Philadelphia/Arizona game OVER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Detroit.  As of this writing, Lions QB Matthew Stafford is questionable to play on Sunday.  Regardless, we're going to go against the Lions, and lay the points with Tennessee.  Detroit's 5-8 on the season, while the Titans are 9-4.  And the Lions were unable to win at home last week against their division rival, Green Bay.  So, it's difficult to make a case for it on Sunday, in their final road game of the season, against a motivated, non-division foe.  The technicals back this up, as losing NFL teams playing their final road game against winning, non-division foes, have covered just 35.5% over the last 41 years if they lost at home the previous week.  Meanwhile, this will be Tennessee's final home game of the season.  And, with two road games on deck, it takes on added significance for Tennessee, given it's currently tied atop the division with Indianapolis.  Since 1980, winning NFL teams playing their final home game have cashed 63.2% when installed as a double-digit favorite vs. foes off a SU loss.  Lay the points with the Titans.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Miami/New England game.  The Patriots have played each of their last five games 'under' the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here, especially given that the Patriots scored just three points last week, and that the last meeting between these clubs totaled just 32 points.  But teams off 4+ unders have tended to go OVER the total when the line was 42 points or less (349-298 OVER).  Moreover, New England has gone over in 11 of 13 after scoring less than 10 points.  And division match-ups have gone over 282-231 when the first meeting of the season totaled less than 33 points.  Take the Patriots and Dolphins to go OVER the total.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Las Vegas Raiders/Los Angeles Chargers game.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the 'over' tonight, given that the previous meeting totaled 57 points, and that each team has played a majority of its games over the total this season.  But we're going to run the other way, as six of the last eight (and 20 of the last 31) meetings between these two division rivals have gone 'under' the total.  Additionally, in its last game, Las Vegas combined for 71 points with the Indianapolis Colts (a 44-27 defeat).  But over the last 41 years, NFL division games have gone 'under' the total 66.1% of the time when the team's previous game totaled more than 58 points, and both the team's games, and its foe's games averaged 50+ points on the season.  Finally, the 'under' falls into 18-3, 101-46 and 123-84 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Steelers lost for the first time last week, 23-17, as a 5.5-point favorite, after 11 straight wins to open the season.  And it was the (now 5-7) Washington Football Team which handed Pittsburgh its first loss -- and at Heinz Field, no less.  In stark contrast, the Bills played, perhaps, their best game of the season, as they went out to the west coast (Arizona) to play a good 49ers team, and upset them, 34-24, as a 2-point underdog.  That was the first time the Bills won as an underdog away from home since the last time these two teams met (Dec. 15, 2019), when Buffalo won 17-10 at Pittsburgh.  Off those two results, we'll play on Buffalo as a small home favorite on Sunday night.  For technical support, consider that, in the last four weeks of the season (and the Playoffs), NFL home favorites off a SU/ATS win, in which they covered by more than 10 points, have cashed 64.3% vs. road underdogs off a SU/ATS loss, in which they failed to cover by more than 10 points.  And the Steelers are an atrocious 8-26-1 ATS on the non-division road, if they owned a .727 (or better) win percentage, and weren't getting 3+ points.  Take the Bills.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers over the Atlanta Falcons.  To say the Chargers played last week the worst game of this current NFL season would not be an overstatement.  After all, they were favored by 2.5 points against New England, but lost 45-0.  Not only was that the worst performance -- relative to the point spread -- of any team this season, but it was just the second time since 1980 that an NFL favorite failed to cover the spread by more than 46 points.  After the game, the Chargers' players were saying all the right things.  Even QB Justin Herbert defended his coach's much-maligned decision to keep his rookie signal caller on the field throughout the blowout since, as he put it, he just wants to "be out there and give everything [he has]."  I believe Los Angeles will bounce back strong off that debacle.  And, for technical support, consider that NFL home underdogs (or PK), off a 35-point (or worse) defeat, have gone 50-29-2 ATS.  Additionally, Atlanta is 1-7 ATS its last eight as a road favorite.  And losing teams (like the Falcons) are a soft 17-33-1 ATS the last four weeks of the season as road favorites vs. foes off losses by more than 15 points.  Take the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Green Bay/Detroit game.  The Packers come into this afternoon's game off back to back wins over Chicago (41-25) and Philadelphia (30-16).  Meanwhile, Detroit has played back to back high-scoring games its last two outings, as it lost 41-25 to Houston, and then defeated the Bears, 34-30, last week.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here, as Green Bay's scored more than 70 points combined over its last two games, while Detroit's given up more than 70 points over its last two contests.  But over the last 41 years, NFL games have gone 'under' the total 58% when the underdog gave up more than 70 points over its last two games, and its opponent scored more than 70 in its last two.  Additionally, the 'under' falls into 127-77 and 62-28 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Las Vegas/Indianapolis game.  Through 12 games, both Las Vegas and Indianapolis own winning records, and are in contention for the playoffs.  But it's the last few weeks of the regular seasons that separate the contenders from the pretenders.  And all the teams understand how important defense is at this time of the year, as that old adage -- defense wins championships -- is actually very true when it comes to the NFL.  Not surprisingly, match-ups between winning teams in the final 6 weeks of the NFL season tend to go 'under' the total, and especially if the line is greater than 46 points, as those games have gone 'under' 60% of the time.  Take the 'under.'

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Seattle/New York game.  After scoring 10 points or less in four straight games (all of which went 'under' the total), the hapless Jets have quietly scored 27+ points in three of their last four games.  Not surprisingly, all three of those games sailed 'over' the total.  Now, New York will go up against a below-average Seahawks defense which is giving up 26.8 ppg (against foes that average 24.5).  So, New York -- which averages just 15 ppg -- will likely be able to exceed that number.  Still, defeating a Seattle team which was upset at home last week by the New York Giants will be a tall order.  And, since Pete Carroll was hired almost 11 years ago, the Seahawks have generally won and covered high-scoring games at home off a loss.  And 10 of 13 Seattle home games have gone 'over' the total if Seattle lost its previous game, and the line was greater than 43 points.  I look for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  Take the 'over.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tennessee/Jacksonville game.  The Titans have played their last four games 'over' the total, including last week's 41-35 loss to Cleveland.  But each of those four games was against a winning, playoff-bound team.  Here, they're going to take on a Jacksonville team which has lost 11 straight games, and is averaging less than 21 points per game.  And, late in the season (the final four weeks), really bad teams -- with win percentages less than .200 -- have gone 'under' the total 77% of the time over the last 40 seasons when the O/U line has been greater than 46 points.  Even better:  the Jaguars have gone under in 18 of 29 home games.  And road favorites of -3 (or more) points, like Tennessee, have gone 'under' 76% of the time over the last 40 seasons when the line was 51+ points.  This will be a relatively-low scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over New England.  The Patriots come into Thursday night's game off back to back upset wins.  Two weeks ago, Bill Belichick's men upset Arizona, 20-17, in Foxborough, and followed that victory up with a 45-0 shutout of the Chargers, in Los Angeles.  They now will play the other Los Angeles team -- also on the road -- as they look to improve their W/L record to 7-6 in a last-ditch attempt to get back into playoff contention.  Unfortunately, they're not likely to find success.  First, from a technical standpoint, .500 (or better) NFL clubs off back to back upset wins, are a horrible 33-66 ATS on the road in non-division games.  Even worse:  the Patriots are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS as an underdog off back to back upsets, while the Rams are 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.  Take Sean McVay's team minus the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Baltimore.  The Ravens have dropped their last three games, while Dallas was upset its last time out, on Thanksgiving Day, by the Football Team.  The final score of that game was Washington 41 Dallas 16, so it was a most embarrassing loss for Dallas.  I look for it to rebound tonight, as teams off upset losses by 20+ points have gone 108-69-4 ATS on the road.  Meanwhile, NFL teams, like Baltimore, off 3+ losses, have covered just 18 of 54 regular season games over the last 34 years.  This past weekend, the season-long trend of the underdogs cashing continued, as the dogs barked loudly, and went 9-5.  For the entire season, they're 110-81 ATS. And they've also gone 20-11 ATS this season on the weekday games, and 37-20 ATS off a home loss.  Take Dallas + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers over the Buffalo Bills.  The Bills are 8-3 (.727), while the 49ers are 5-6 (.454), but the oddsmakers have made this game a near-PK'em.  It might look easy to take the team with the much better record, but be careful.  On Monday Night Football, when a team has owned a win percentage at least .200 better than its foe (at Game 12 forward), and it wasn't favored by more than 4 points, it's gone 1-13 SU/ATS.  That doesn't bode well for Buffalo on this Monday night.  And neither does the fact that the 49ers are an awesome 40-11 1 ATS on Monday Night Football when they weren't favored by more than 10 points, while Buffalo is 0-6-2 ATS on the Monday Night road when they were playing a non-division foe, and were not getting 7+ points!  Take the 49ers to blow out Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Kansas City Chiefs/Denver Broncos game.  The Chiefs have gone 'under' the total in 21 of their last 28 division games with over/under lines of 47+ points, while Denver has gone 'under' in 23 of its last 31 division games with an over/under line greater than 42 points.  Not surprisingly, then, this series has gone 8-1-1 'under' the total when the line has been 48+ points.  This game, in particular, has all the earmarks of an 'under.'  The Chiefs are a double-digit favorite against an offensively-challenged Broncos team, with a high over/under line.  And the technicals back this up, as games that involve a 7-point (or greater) underdog which scores less than 19.6 ppg, have gone 'under' 100-65-2 when the line was 47+ points.  Even better:  The Chiefs have gone 'under' the total in 22 of their last 27 home games against teams with a negative scoring margin of -1.8 (or worse), including 6-0 'under' when KC was favored by more than 11 points.  This will be a relatively-low scoring game.  Take the Chiefs/Broncos 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers over the New England Patriots.  Los Angeles has dropped its last five games against the spread.  But I love it to get into the win column on this Sunday, as teams off 5+ point spread defeats have gone 62-34-4 ATS since 1980 if they owned a losing record, and were playing a non-division opponent off a SU win.  Even better:  the Patriots are 0-6 ATS their last six, and 2-10 ATS their last 12 vs. foes on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Take the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints OVER the total.  The Saints have gone 'under' in each of their last four games (after starting the season with seven straight 'overs,' while Atlanta's previous two games have gone 'under.'  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game here.  Don't do it.  Generally speaking, teams off 4+ unders tend to go 'over' in their next game, including 58.3% since 1980 when the line was greater than 45 points and their opponent was also off an 'under.'  Take the 'over' in the Saints/Falcons game.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders to go OVER the total.  The Raiders generally go 'over' the total on the non-division road, including an 18-6-2 Over record when the line has been less than 49 points.  Likewise, the Jets have gone 18-8 Over at home in non-division games with lines less than 49 points.  Five of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone over the total, and we'll look for another high-scoring game here, as I believe the two teams will bounce back off their poor offensive performances last week.  The Jets only scored 3 vs. Miami, while Las Vegas managed just 6 at Atlanta.  But NFL games, with lines greater than 40 points, have gone over 62% of the time if the two teams combined for less than 10 points on offense their previous game.  Take the OVER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New Orleans.  It always pains me to go against the Saints (who I selected in the preseason to win the Super Bowl (at 10-1 odds)).  But we've got to do it this afternoon, given their recent hot streak (8 straight wins, 4 straight covers), and absence of Drew Brees on the field.  And even though New Orleans dominated Atlanta in the 2nd half of the game two weeks ago -- to pull away for a 24-9 win -- we'll grab the points with the Falcons in the rematch.  In that game, which was at New Orleans, the Falcons were a 3-point road underdog.  Now, the line is the same, even though the Falcons are the home team.  There's point spread value on the Atlanta side.  Moreover, NFL teams off 8+ wins, and 4+ covers are 0-9 ATS their last nine, and 4-16 ATS their last 20!  That doesn't bode well for the Saints on Sunday.  And the Saints also fall into negative 75-140 and 34-69 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Falcons + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  I'm well aware that the Jets are a bad football team.  You don't start the season with 11 straight losses if you're not.  But I'm never averse to taking points with bad NFL teams.  However, what I'm loath to do is to lay a lot of points with bad teams.  Now, an argument can be made that the Raiders aren't a "bad" team.  After all, they have a winning record, at 6-5 on the season.  BUT they've been outscored by 27 points this season, which is not the mark of a good team.  And NFL teams with negative scoring margins are 154-235-6 ATS as favorites of 7+ points vs. opponents that didn't win their previous game.  That doesn't bode well for the Raiders this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that New York's 26-10 ATS at home, if they lost at home the previous game, including 11-3 ATS when getting more than 3 points.  Finally, since 1980, winless teams off a SU/ATS loss are 65-35 ATS (at Game 6 forward) if they were an underdog against a non-division foe.  Take the points with the Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Baltimore was favored in the season's first meeting this year, but was upset by the Steelers, 28-24.  We'll grab the points in this rematch as, in match-ups between two teams with .500 (or better) records, underdogs of more than 4 points have cashed 71.1% when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home earlier in the season.  And the Ravens are also 21-11 ATS when installed as an underdog of +3 (or more) points, and playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Ravens.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Seattle Seahawks.  Last season, the Seahawks defeated Philly twice -- both by identical 17-9 scores -- in the regular season, and then, again, in the Wild Card round of the Playoffs.  But with double revenge, we'll step in and take the points with the home underdog tonight.  Indeed, the Eagles fall into a 28-12 ATS Playoff revenge system of mine which plays on certain revengers, at home, vs. .750 (or worse) foes.  And the Eagles also fall into a more general revenge system of mine which is 149-88 ATS since 1980 which plays on certain teams in non-division games with revenge against winning opponents.  Last week, the Seahawks had a huge divisional battle with Arizona, and emerged victorious by a 28-21 score.  But off that huge win, which moved the Seahawks to the lead in their division, I look for a letdown at Philadelphia tonight, as the Seahawks fall into a negative 6-25 ATS angle which fades certain teams off big division victories.  Take the Eagles + the generous spot.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Both of these teams have hopes of reaching the Super Bowl, though the Chiefs' are playing closer to that reality than than the Buccaneers.  Last week, Tampa lost for the 2nd time in its last three games to fall to 7-4 on the season.  The good news is that its four remaining games following this contest are all against sub-.500 ball clubs, so if the Bucs can win today, they'll stand an excellent chance to finish on a 5-game win streak, and tally 12 wins for the season.  First things first, of course, and they'll need to upset a Chiefs squad which has won its last five games.  But off its loss on Monday Night Football to the Rams, I love Tampa to rebound this afternoon.  For technical support, consider that, at Game 12 forward, winning teams have cashed 35 of 45 non-division games off a straight-up loss, if they were an underdog (or PK) at home, including 14-1 ATS if its opponent was playing back-to-back road games.  And the Buccaneers are also 10-4 ATS as a single-digit home dog, if they had a winning record, and their opponent was off a SU win.  Take the points with Tom Brady & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  New York has yet to win a game this season.  But after dropping their first 10 games, we'll grab the points with the Flyboys as a divisional home underdog.  Last week, the Jets fought hard against the Chargers in 6-point defeat, but covered the 10-point spread.  And that was New York's 2nd straight ATS win.  Of course, it hasn't hurt New York that it finally has a full complement of wide receivers, with Perriman, Mims and Crowder all on the field of late.  And QB Sam Darnold will also be back for this game.  I look for New York to make it three-in-a-row this afternoon, as NFL teams that have lost 7+ games in a row have gone 27-10-2 ATS off a point spread win when they were matched up against a division opponent, and not favored by 3+ points (and 8-0 ATS off 10+ wins, as an underdog of +6 or more).  Likewise, winless teams with an 0-4 (or worse) record have cashed 70% over the last 35 seasons vs. winning division rivals, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when priced from +6.5 to +10.5 vs. foes off an ATS loss.  Additionally, New York falls into 240-146, 298-224 and 250-153 ATS systems of mine that play on certain losing teams against winning foes.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tennessee Titans/Indianapolis Colts game.  These two teams met just two weeks ago, and the over/under line was a couple of points less, at 49, than it is for this game here.  Indianapolis won that game, 34-17, so it went over the total by 2 points.  Now, for this game, the oddsmakers have adjusted the over/under line.  I believe it's an over-adjustment, and will look for a lower-scoring game, especially since this game will be played at Indianapolis.  Indeed, the Colts have gone 'under' in 25 of 34 home division contests, including 7-0 'under' when the line was greater than 48 points.  And this game also falls into 19-0 and 57-33 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Cleveland.  The Jaguars won on Opening Day, but haven't won since, as they're currently riding a 9-game losing streak.  In an attempt to get back into the win column, coach Doug Marrone has tabbed veteran Mike Glennon to start at quarterback this afternoon.  The Jags have been installed as a 7-point home underdog against a Browns team that enters off two straight wins.  But those two wins both came at home; on the road, the Browns have only won 17 of 95 games (40-53 ATS), and they've cashed just 7 of 25 when not getting more than 3 points, including 0-6 ATS their last six.  Over the last 40 years, at Game 10 forward, underdogs of +7 (or more) points have gone 143-99 ATS if they were off back to back losses, and their opponent was off back to back wins.  Take the Jaguars + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Dallas.  Last week, we played on the Cowboys as our NFL Game of the Month, and were rewarded with an upset win over the Minnesota Vikings.  But we'll switch gears, and go against Dallas today.  The Cowboys and Redskins, er, Football Team, have had a heated rivalry for decades.  And it's been profitable to take the underdog in this series, as the dog has gone 49-24-1 ATS.  Even better:  if the favorite (here, Dallas) was coming off a straight-up win, then the underdog has gone 31-10-1 ATS, 75.6%.  Additionally, teams with horrible defenses (like Dallas (31.8 ppg)) that give up more than 30.25 ppg have covered just 24 of 75 home games off a straight-up win.  Take the Redskins + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over Los Angeles.  Last week, the Rams had a HUGE divisional win against the Seahawks.  Seattle was atop the division at the time, with a 6-2 record.  But the Rams defeated Seattle, 23-16, as a 3.5-point home favorite.  Unfortunately for L.A., teams often suffer letdowns following a victory in division games between two strong teams, and especially when they go on the road to play a non-division foe.  Indeed, over the past 41 years, in the 2nd half of the season, .666 (or better) road underdogs of less than 5 points have covered just 18% in non-division games following a victory over a .666 (or better) division rival!  Even better, in his career, Tom Brady's teams have gone 10-1-1, 91% ATS as a single-digit favorite on Monday nights.  Lay the points with the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Raiders upset the defending Super Bowl champs, 40-32, earlier this season at Arrowhead Stadium.  But I love KC to avenge that defeat, as defending Super Bowl champs, with a winning record, have cashed 82% over the last 41 years in the regular season when playing with revenge from a home loss earlier in the year.  And NFL favorites of more than 3 points have gone 11-0 ATS in the regular season since 2010 when playing with revenge from an earlier loss in the season as a 7-point favorite.  Take the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders to go under the total.  The Chiefs were upset at home by Las Vegas, 40-32, as a 10-point favorite back on October 11.  Needless to say, Kansas City will be strongly motivated tonight to avenge that defeat.  And, generally speaking, NFL teams that were upset earlier in the season, and gave up 28+ points in that loss, do exact revenge, as they've covered the spread 55% of the time since 1984, including 10-0 ATS their last 10.  And a primary reason that our revengers do better against the spread in the 2nd meeting is that their defense plays much better.  Indeed, our games in this situation have gone 'under' 142-99-6.  Before giving up 40 to the Raiders in the last meeting, the Chiefs had allowed just 9, 10 and 3 points to the Raiders in the three meetings previous to that (all 3 went 'under').   Finally, six of KC's last seven road games have gone 'under,' as have 23 of the Raiders' last 30 division contests.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Jets are 0-9 on the season, which will keep many bettors away from them.  But not us.  Indeed, one of the things I love to do is play on winless NFL teams, as road underdogs.  And if I can avoid going against a strong opponent, with a win percentage of .666 (or better), then that's much preferred.  Fortunately for us, the Jets aren't playing a great team on Sunday, as the Chargers have won just two games, themselves, this season.  And, dating back to 1985, winless teams, at Game 4 forward, are 92-48 ATS as road underdogs vs. sub-.666 opponents.  Take New York + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Miami.  Broncos QB Drew Lock has been upgraded to 'probable,' and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the home underdog this afternoon.  Last week, Denver was blown out by the Raiders in Las Vegas, 37-12, while the Dolphins won (and covered) their 5th straight with a 29-21 victory against the Chargers.  We'll take the points with Denver, as home underdogs that gave up more than 31 points in their previous game (and failed to cover by 15+ points in that defeat) have rebounded to go 161-111 ATS vs. .363 (or better) opponents.  Even better:  the Broncos have always been a great team at home when they weren't laying a lot of points.  Indeed, dating back to 1981, Denver is a spectacular 52-24-4 ATS at home when not laying more than 2 points!  I won't fade those numbers.  Take the home underdog + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New Orleans.  This is a great spot for Atlanta, as it won't have to face Drew Brees this afternoon, after he sustained a rib fracture in his last game.  Thus, Jameis Winston will be under center for New Orleans, and it's a big drop-off from Brees to Winston.  Atlanta has played extremely well for its new head coach, Raheem Morris, including wins in both of their road games, at Minnesota (40-23) and at Carolina (25-17).  And the Falcons have now won 6 straight division road games (5-1 ATS), including a 26-9 victory here in New Orleans last season (as a 14-point underdog).  And Atlanta's 24-7 ATS as a road underdog vs. the Saints.  Take Atlanta + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over New England.  Last week, we played on both Houston and New England, and cashed each of them.  But, unlike New England, which won outright as a 7-point underdog vs. Baltimore, our win on Houston was most fortunate.  The Texans were a 4-point underdog, and down by 3 points with about a minute left in the game when Cleveland RB Nick Chubb scampered down the sideline for an apparent 60-yard TD run.  But instead of crossing the goal line for a 9-point Browns lead, Chubb chose to step out of bounds at the 1-yard line so the Texans could not get the ball back with 56 seconds left.  Of course it was technically a smart decision, even if Houston would have had much less than a 1% chance to score 10 points in 56 seconds.  But it was still unbelievably lucky, as not many in Chubb's shoes would have eschewed a 60-yard TD score.  Here, I don't think Houston will need such good fortune, as I believe they'll pull the upset over the Patriots as a home underdog.  One of the things I love to do when betting on the NFL is to go against road favorites in non-division games after pulling off upset wins as an underdog of +5.5 (or more) points.  These road favorites generally suffer letdowns, as they've covered just 23% over the last 41 seasons.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals to go UNDER the total.  These two teams less than four weeks ago, and the Cardinals came away with a 37-34 victory, in overtime.  And the Cardinals have now scored 30+ points in five straight games (33.2 avg.), and have gone 'over' the total in three straight.  That has contributed to this over/under being a couple points higher than it was just a few games ago!  But consider that Arizona's last three games -- that each went 'over' -- were all at home (where it averages 30.6 ppg (compared to a lower amount on the road)).  And also consider that, of Arizona's four road games this season, it has yet to face a team with a winning record!  Arizona's four road games have come against teams with a combined record of 9-29.  So, this will be a much more difficult test for the 6-3 Cardinals' offense, notwithstanding the fact that Seattle's defense is allowing 28.5 ppg at home this season.  The Seahawks should be in an angry mood on Thursday, as they're coming off back to back losses, and will be playing with revenge from that overtime game in Arizona which they led by 10 with less than seven minutes to go.  For technical support, consider that the Seahawks have gone under the total 88% of the time since 1980 when playing with revenge from an upset loss in which they gave up 28+ points (holding their opponents to an average of 13.3 ppg in those games).  And all four of Arizona's road games this season have also gone UNDER the total.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Chicago.  The Vikings started this season 1-5, but have reeled off back to back wins to move their record to 3-5 on the season.  Last year, of course, Minnesota was 10-6, and qualified for the playoffs as the NFC #6 seed.  They upset New Orleans in the Wild Card round, before losing, 27-10, to San Francisco in the divisional round.  So, it was a bit of a surprise that the Vikes got 2020 off to such a poor start.  But they're trying to right their ship, and tonight's game will be critical if they're to make a push for this year's playoffs.  Last season, even though Minnesota won 10 regular season games, the Bears won both meetings.  The good news for the Vikings is that NFL single digit favorites, that owned a winning record the previous season, have gone 70-40 ATS when playing with revenge from two losses the previous season.  Even better:  NFL favorites off back to back wins, with a win percentage of .375 (or worse) have cashed 64.7% since 1983.  And winning teams (like the Bears), off 3+ losses, have cashed just 28% since 1994 if they were an underdog (or PK).  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Baltimore.  These two teams met last year in Baltimore, and the Ravens won 37-20, as a 3-point home underdog.  Now, however, it's the Ravens who are installed as the road favorite.  Last week, Baltimore upset the Colts in Indianapolis, 24-10, to move to 6-2 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Patriots struggled to defeat the winless Jets, 30-27, as a 9-point favorite, so they failed to cover the spread for the fifth time in eight tries.  Can the Ravens win (and cover) back-to-back road games?  It's not likely, as .666 (or better) teams have covered just 23 of 71 on the road off a road upset win, if they weren't getting more than 3 points, and their opponent was off a point spread loss.  Even worse, the Ravens have lost nine of 10 road games, straight-up, after pulling an upset on the road in their previous game.  And New England is 16-1 ATS in the regular season when playing with revenge from an upset loss, if they failed to cover the spread in their previous meeting by more than 10 points.  Finally, it's been dangerous over the years to give New England points -- even if they're not a great team.  The Patriots are 6-0 ATS their last six as home dogs of +7 (or more) points (and 11-2 ATS their last 13); and also 24-8 ATS their last 32 as a dog of 7+, regardless of the venue.  And when the Patriots have owned a win percentage of .400 (or worse), they're 26-6-1 ATS when getting more than 3 points, if they were not off an ATS win in their previous game.  Take New England + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Rams/Seattle Seahawks game.  From an Over/Under perspective, this will be an interesting game, to the extent it features two teams going in opposite directions.  The Seahawks own the league's worst pass defense, and have gone 'over' the total in their last three games, and six of their eight on the season.  In contrast, the Rams have gone 'under' the total in five straight, and also six of their eight games.  Generally speaking, when two teams with contrasting styles like this have met over the past 41 seasons, the 'unders' have cashed more often than not.  And that's the way we will play this game, as the 'under' falls into two Totals systems of mine that are 101-40 and 21-4 since 1980, as well as a 3rd Totals system which is 55-29 since 1983.  Even better:  the Seahawks have gone 'under' in 9 straight (and 17 of 22) after scoring more than 100 points over their three previous games, including 7-0 'under' when the line was greater than 45 points.  And the Rams have gone 'under' in 7 straight (and 12 of 14) in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 4 points, if the O/U line was 50+.  Take the Rams/Seahawks UNDER the total.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Las Vegas Raiders/Denver Broncos game.  The Broncos come into this AFC West division battle off a 34-27 loss at Atlanta last Sunday.  And that was Denver's 3rd straight game that it surrendered 30+ points.  Not surprisingly, all three games sailed over the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here, especially since Las Vegas checks in off a high-scoring, 31-26 win at the Chargers last Sunday.  But consider that teams that gave up 30+ points in each of their three previous games have gone 'under' 57% of the time since 1980, including 33-18 UNDER if their opponent scored 30+ in its last game.  Even better:  AFC West division games have gone UNDER 26-14 since 2017, while Denver's gone UNDER in nine straight road games after giving up more than 92 points in their three previous games.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always..Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Buffalo.  Last week, we had a big play on the Bills, and were rewarded with a blowout win over the then-NFC Conference-leading Seahawks.  On Sunday, the 7-2 Bills will attempt to win their third straight game vs. an NFC West foe this season, but they will face a Cardinals team in an ornery mood following its home loss to the Dolphins last week.  We'll lay the points with Arizona, as NFL teams off an upset defeat, in which they failed to cover by more than 8 points, have cashed 51 of 79 vs. .687 (or better) foes off an upset win.  That bodes well for Arizona on Sunday.  As does the fact that the Cardinals are a stellar 34-9 ATS at home off a straight-up home loss, when they're not laying 6+ points.  Take Arizona minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Miami.  The Dolphins are 5-3 after back to back upset wins over the LA Rams and Arizona Cardinals.  But each of those wins were phonier than a 3-dollar bill, as Miami was outgained 471-145 by the Rams, and 442-312 by the Cardinals.  So, don't be surprised if the 2-6 Chargers knock off Miami on Sunday.  Indeed, the Chargers may be 2-6, but they've actually outyarded six of their eight opponents -- including the Broncos and Raiders (both of which they lost to) in their last two games.  This will be just the 2nd time the Dolphins have been favored this season (the first was against the 0-9 Jets), and Miami's a horrid 37-66-3 ATS at home when they weren't getting more than 3 points.  Meanwhile, the Chargers are 37-13-1 ATS on the road in the 2nd half of the season when not favored by 4+ points.  And Los Angeles also falls into 45-87 and 26-66 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams with losing records off SU/ATS losses.  Take the Chargers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Cleveland Browns.  The Browns are favored by more than a field goal vs. Houston, even though Cleveland has failed to cover its last three games, and has covered just 13 of its last 42 when favored by six points or less (and just three of 22 if the Browns owned a W/L percentage of .375 or better).  It's true that the Texans are 2-6 this season, and failed to cover last Sunday at Jacksonville.  But losing teams, playing their second straight road game, have gone 282-211 ATS off a point spread loss the previous week.  Take the Texans + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers won a huge revenge game their last time out when they defeated San Francisco, 34-17.  Last season, of course, the Packers lost twice to the 49ers, including a defeat in the NFC Championship game.  Off that emotional win, I expect a bit of a letdown on Sunday, as Green Bay will be facing a Jaguars team which has lost seven straight games.  Indeed, winning teams have covered just 47 of 120 as a home favorite, after winning a revenge game on the road, if they were now matched up against a losing team off a straight-up loss (and just five of 19 when favored by more than 13 points).  Additionally, road underdogs of more than 13 points are 178-139 ATS.  Take the Jaguars + the points.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over New England.  The Patriots are on their way to their first losing season since 2000 when they went 5-11.  They're scoring just 19.42 ppg, while they're giving up 23.85, for a -4.43 average margin of victory.  Given these numbers, it's difficult to make a case for New England as a large road favorite -- even against a team as hapless as the New York Jets.  Consider that, at Game 6 forward, losing teams, favored by 8+ points, are a wallet-busting 17-37 ATS if their defense surrenders 23.67 ppg!  Even worse:  favorites of more than 3 points, with a W/L percentage less than .310, have covered just 30.2% since 1980.  And teams with a negative scoring margin that are favored by 7+ points, have gone 154-231-6 ATS vs. foes not off a straight-up win.  Indeed, we saw this particular angle win yesterday when the Houston Texans (with a negative 7.28 margin of victory) failed to cover their 7-point spread vs. Jacksonville.  The bottom line is that when it comes to bad teams, it's generally better to take points than to lay them.  Take the Jets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Tampa Bay.  As faithful followers know, we've been terrific over the year on our futures plays.  Already in 2020, we've cashed the Tampa Bay Lightning at 7-1 odds, and the Los Angeles Dodgers at 4-1 odds.  Our NFL preseason pick was the New Orleans Saints (at 10-1 odds).  New Orleans did get its season off to a fine start with a 34-23 win over these Buccaneers.  But, if truth be told, they've not impressed since, as they've not won a game by 7+ points since then.  Yes, New Orleans has won four straight games coming into this Sunday Night contest, but those wins were by 6 (Lions), 3 (Chargers), 3 (Panthers) and 3 (Bears) points.  They'll now face a revenge-minded division rival, in the Buccaneers.  And that will lead many bettors over to the Tampa Bay side, especially since the Bucs are on a 3-game win streak, including a noteworthy 38-10 victory over the Green Bay Packers -- a team which beat the Saints by seven, 37-30.  But we will step in and take the points with the underdog Saints, as I feel they're due for a breakout game.  Also, Sean Payton has coached the Saints to a 56-24-3 ATS record vs. .500 (or better) foes off a straight-up win, including 11-0-1 ATS their last 12 when getting more than 2 points.  I won't fade those numbers.  Take the Saints + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.