At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  Washington opened its season with a nice win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but lost to Detroit and Philly in Weeks 2 + 3.  In contrast, the Cowboys opened their season with a loss to Tampa, but rebounded in Weeks 2 + 3 with back to back upset wins, including a 23-16 victory at the New York Giants this past Monday.  Unfortunately for Dallas, NFL teams off a division upset win (and back to back upset wins, overall) have covered just 22% the past 43 seasons vs. division foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  That doesn't bode well for the Cowboys this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that this has been an underdog-oriented rivalry, with the dog going 50-26-1 ATS in the last 77 meetings.  Grab the points with Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Miami.  Last week, in a battle of undefeated, 2-0 teams, Miami bested Buffalo, 21-19, as a 4.5-point home underdog.  But after toppling the Bills from the ranks of the unbeatens, we'll fade Miami on the road tonight.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, at Game 4 forward, .500 (or better) NFL road dogs have cashed just 32.6% after knocking off an undefeated team, provided they weren't favored by 3+ points in that previous game.  And Miami is a miserable 11-31 ATS off an upset win over a division rival.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the New York Jets.  Last year, the Bengals reached the Super Bowl.  This season, they've not yet found similar success.  Indeed, Cincy is 0-2 SU/ATS after its first two games.  But I love the Bengals to bounce back on Sunday.  Since 1980, NFL teams that made the playoffs the previous season have cashed 60% in Game 3 after starting the season winless SU/ATS.  That bodes well for the Bengals here.  As does the fact that the Jets are a horrid 66-116-6 ATS at home vs. foes that don’t have a winning record, including 13-32 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss.  Lay the points with the Bengals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Kansas City.  The Colts were shut out, 24-0, by the Jaguars last Sunday.  However, off that embarrassing defeat, we'll take Indy as a big home underdog against the Chiefs.  The Colts are a solid 48-23 ATS off a straight-up loss, while KC has covered just 38 of 93 games as a favorite vs. foes off back to back losses.  And since 1980, NFL teams, like Indianapolis, that scored less than 6 points in an upset loss have gone 104-74-4 ATS in their subsequent game.  Take the home underdog Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last week, we played on the Minnesota Vikings against Green Bay, and were rewarded with a 23-7 blowout win.  But off that loss, we'll take Aaron Rodgers & Co. to bounce back on Sunday.  And when they're playing the Bears, they generally do bounce back off losses.  Indeed, Green Bay is 19-1-1 ATS its last 21 (including 13-0 ATS its last 13) vs. Chicago if Green Bay failed to cover the spread in its previous game.  And with Aaron Rodgers under center, the Packers are a solid 63-37-3 ATS when not favored by 13 points against an opponent NOT off an ATS loss.  Take Green Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over Las Vegas.  The Cardinals were blown out by Kansas City, 44-21, in Week 1, while Las Vegas lost to the Chargers.  We'll look for Arizona to rebound on Sunday, as underdogs off a double-digit loss in Week 1 have covered 69.4% since 1991 if they owned a winning record the previous season.  Moreover, the Raiders are an atrocious 25-52-1 ATS as a favorite, including 0-9 ATS their last nine.  Grab the points with Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our NFC West Division Game of the Year is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Seattle.  The Niners were surprised by the Chicago Bears in Week 1, as they lost, 19-10, as a 7-point road favorite.  Meanwhile, Seattle upset Denver, 17-16, on Monday night.  We'll take the 49ers to bounce back strong on Sunday afternoon, as they're a spectacular 67-28 ATS off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Moreover, in week 2, NFL teams off a road loss in Week 1, that made the playoffs the previous year, have covered 68% since 1980 against foes off an upset win to start the season.  Finally, the Seahawks are a poor 6-16-1 ATS in their road openers.  Take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Tampa Bay.  Last week, the Buccaneers played the Cowboys in a match-up of two Playoff teams from the previous season.  Tampa emerged victorious, 19-3, and now travels to play the Saints, who also won its season opener.  We'll fade Tampa Bay, as road favorites have only covered 33% since 1980 in Week 2, if they won SU/ATS in Week 1 against a team that made the playoffs the previous season.  New Orleans is 17-5 SU and 14-8 ATS its last 22 games vs. Tampa Bay, including 2-0 last year, and 7-1 SU/ATS since Dec. 2018.  Take the Saints + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Bill Belichick's men were blown out, 20-7, by Miami in Week 1, while Pittsburgh upended Cincy, 23-20, in overtime.  But with New England off that loss, we'll lay the short number vs. the Steelers.  For technical support, consider that New England is 23-8 ATS its last 31 (and 10-0 SU/ATS its last 10) non-division games when not favored by 3+ points, if it was off a SU loss, and its foe was off a SU win.  Take the Patriots.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New York Giants.  New York won a thriller last week when it scored a touchdown and two-point conversion to stun the Titans (who owned the AFC's #1 record last season), 21-20.  Unfortunately, Game 2 favorites, that defeated a Playoff team from the previous season in its opener, have covered just 42% against foes off a SU loss.  I look for New York to suffer a letdown on this Sunday.  Take Carolina + the points.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Patrick Mahomes & Co. racked up 44 points last week in a 23-point blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals.  But off that offensive explosion, we will fade KC at home tonight.  Indeed, NFL home teams off a win by more than 20 points to start the season are an awful 1-13-1 ATS.  And the Chargers are 30-14-5 ATS on the road vs. division foes not off a loss.  Grab the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  These two teams split the season series, 1 game apiece.  Minnesota won, 34-31, at home, but Green Bay blew out the Vikings at Lambeau Field, 37-10, in the next-to-last game of the season.  However, QB Kirk Cousins didn’t play in that game due to COVID-19, so Green Bay was installed as a 13-point home favorite, and coasted to an easy win.  After last year's home win, the Vikings have now gone 11-6 ATS as a home dog/pk vs. Green Bay.  And NFC North Division home dogs, as a whole, have gone 91-70-3 ATS in division games.  Finally, in Game 1 divisional matchups between two teams that won at least 8 games the previous season, home dogs have cashed 71% since 1981.  Grab the points with the Vikings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  The Bengals continue to step up against the league's best teams.  They're now 9-1 SU/ATS vs. winning opponents!  And that includes impressive upset wins over the Chiefs (twice), Titans and Ravens (with Lamar Jackson).  In contrast, the Rams are 4-6 ATS this season vs. winning opponents, including a horrid 1-6 ATS as a favorite!  And they're 6-12 ATS when laying more than 3 points, and 11-26 ATS off back to back wins under Sean McVay (including 5-19 ATS when the line was 7 or less points).  It's true that the Rams will be playing this game at their home stadium, but home teams are a soft 17-25 in the Playoffs since 2018 when favored by 3+ points.  Take the points with the Bengals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams OVER the total.  The Rams held Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers in check in the NFC Conference Championship game, which finished 20-17, and went under the total of 45.5 points by 8.5 points.  But the Rams have tended to go OVER the total when facing the better NFL teams, as they're 10-4 OVER when playing an opponent which averages more than 26.75 ppg, and 7-1 OVER when playing an opponent with a .650 (or better) win percentage.  Additionally, the Rams are now 5-0 OVER following an under in their previous game.  Even better:  NFL teams have gone OVER 67-42 in the Playoffs following a game it went under by more than 8 points, if such Playoff game had a line greater than 42 points.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers over the total.  These two teams met earlier this month, and the Niners upset the Rams here, in Los Angeles, to punch their ticket to the Playoffs.  That regular season game went OVER the total.  And we'll look for a similar result on Sunday, as the NFC Championship games have been extremely high scoring, for the most part, with the OVER cashing 21-7-2 since 1992, including 10-0 OVER if the line ranged from 45 to 54 points.  Even better, in the Playoffs, when the home favorite was playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the season, those games have gone OVER 24-11.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs OVER the total.  These two teams met just four weeks ago, and they played a high-scoring game, won by the Bengals, 34-31.  That game sailed over the total of 51 by 14 points.  We'll look for another high-scoring game on Sunday at Arrowhead, as playoff rematches of games that went over, also tend to go over the total, and especially if the O/U line is 50+ points, as those games have gone over 65% since 1990.  Kansas City has now played its last 7 games OVER the total, and is also 6-0 OVER with Patrick Mahomes at QB and playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Kansas City.  This is the 2nd match-up this season here, at Arrowhead Stadium, between these two teams, and the Bills won Round 1 by 18 points, 38-20.  My numbers rate the Bills as the AFC's best team, so we will happily take Buffalo as an underdog in this match-up with the back-to-back AFC Conference champion Chiefs.  Indeed, the Bills fall into 81-19, 123-58 and 93-52 ATS systems of mine based on their statistical profile, and also 28-9 and 37-19 ATS Playoff systems, based on this particular game's situation.  It's true that the Chiefs do enter this game on an impressive run, which has seen them win 10 of 11 straight-up, and cover seven of their last nine.  But the Bills are 20-5-2 ATS on the road vs. foes with a .500 SU/ATS record, including a perfect 5-0 ATS when the point spread was less than 3 points.  Admittedly, Kansas City does have one of the best NFL head coaches in Andy Reid.  But all of Reid's point spread profit (135-94 ATS) has been on the road and/or as an underdog.  When installed as a home favorite, Reid's team have gone just 82-83-4 ATS, including 2-14 ATS when priced as a revenge-minded home favorite of less than 4 points.  Last week's game vs. New England -- where Buffalo scored touchdowns on its first seven possessions (against a Patriots defense which was allowing just 17.82 ppg) -- put the league on notice about just how good this Bills team can be.  And this might be the last time in quite a while that we see Josh Allen & Co. priced as an underdog.  Take Buffalo + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  We played on the Bucs here, at home, to end the regular season.  Tampa was a big home favorite vs. Carolina in that game, and in my analysis, I pointed out how the Buccaneers had played much worse on the road this season than at home.  And that's generally to be expected with defending Super Bowl champions, as they tend to mightily struggle on the road.  And these home/road splits carry forward into the Playoffs for defending Super Bowl champs, as they've gone 16-12-1 ATS at home, but just 7-9 ATS on the road.  The good news for the Bucs is this Playoff game is at home.  And Tampa's gone 7-2 ATS at home this season, and has covered the spread in those nine home games by a super 6.11 ppg.  In contrast, the Bucs were 3-6 ATS away from home (including a 34-24 upset loss to these Rams), and failed to cover the spread by -4.33 ppg (for a +10.44 relative home/road point spread differential).  Meanwhile, the Rams also performed better at home this season than on the road, and they failed to cover the spread away from home by -0.33 ppg.  None of this bodes well for Los Angeles in this road game.  And nor does the fact that Tom Brady's teams have gone 17-8 ATS in his career when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 9-1 ATS if they lost that earlier game by 10+ points.  Take Tampa Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the San Francisco 49ers.  With Aaron Rodgers as its starting quarterback, Green Bay has gone 131-90-5 ATS.  And while those numbers are certainly impressive, they get even better when one looks at how the Packers have done with Rodgers vs. WINNING opponents, when Green Bay was priced from -4 to -8 points.  In this situation, in Rodgers' career, he's led Green Bay to a 20-1 SU record, and 17-3-1 ATS!  The one straight-up loss was against Dak Prescott's Cowboys, on October 16, 2016.  And since that game, Green Bay's gone 10-0 SU/ATS when priced from -4 to -8 vs. winning opposition.  The Packers did lose their last regular season game, at Detroit, as a 3-point road favorite.  But Green Bay is a powerful 8-0 SU/ATS their last eight off an upset loss; and 35-14 ATS their last 49 off an upset road loss; and a perfect 4-0 ATS in the Playoffs off an upset loss.  Lay the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Rams/Arizona Cardinals game.  These two teams played high scoring games in the regular season, with each team scoring 30+ points in a road victory.  But this is the playoffs, not the regular season, and I expect a much better game today on the defensive side of the football.  And the Rams, especially, have tightened things up defensively following their mid-season three game losing streak.  Los Angeles gave up 28, 31 and 36 points in those defeats, and were being roundly criticized.  But since hitting that rock-bottom level, the Rams have gone 5-1, with their only loss coming in overtime.  And they have given up just 18.16 ppg in this stretch.  The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 9-1 UNDER on turf, and 11-3 UNDER off a SU loss.  Take the under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over San Francisco.  This is San Francisco's 2nd straight road game, as it played at Los Angeles last Sunday.  The 49ers upset the Rams, 27-24, in overtime for their second straight win, overall.  We'll go against San Francisco on Sunday, as NFL teams playing back to back road games, have covered just 25 of 73 playoff games if they were off an upset win, and not getting 8+ points in the current game.  Moreover, Dallas has covered the point spread by 7.06 ppg at home this season, while the 49ers have covered by just 1.44 ppg on the road.  And the Cowboys also own the better offensive and defensive scoring numbers, as they're 6.05 ppg better on offense, and 0.41 ppg better on defense.  For the season, Dallas has outscored its foes by 10.11 ppg.  And it's not often you get such a team in this price range, at home, in the playoffs.  But when you do, you should generally consider taking the home team, as they're 10-0 ATS in the Playoffs since 1980 when not laying 4+ points, when they've owned a scoring margin of 9.75 (or better).  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Raiders come into this game off three straight upset wins, including a 35-32 overtime win at home last Sunday vs. the Chargers.  We'll fade Las Vegas on Saturday, as road teams have covered just 60 of 157 non-division game off back to back upset wins, including 3-12 ATS in the Playoffs.  And the Raiders are 1-13 ATS off an upset home win over a division rival.  Take Cincinnati minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over Carolina.  After ending last season on a 7-0 SU/ATS run to win the Super Bowl, and bringing back all their starters for this season, the expectation was that Tampa would win the NFC Conference, and compete with Kansas City for the league's best overall record.  But as we see time, and time again, defending Super Bowl champs don't always have great regular seasons.  And they surely don't have great seasons against the point spread.  The Buccaneers are 8-8 ATS this season and, like their defending champion predecessors, they struggled greatly as favorites on the road.  Tampa started out 2021 with five straight ATS defeats (including 0-4 ATS as a favorite) before finishing with a 3-1 ATS road mark (and 3-6 ATS overall).  But things were markedly better at home, where Tampa went 5-2 ATS.  This afternoon, the Bucs will look to bounce back off last week's poor game, where they failed to cover the spread by 10.5 points against the New York Jets.  The good news is that Tampa is back home to host the Carolina Panthers, who have lost  (both SU and ATS) six straight games.  And while it's true that teams on ATS losing streaks of 4+ games are essentially 50% plays toward the end of a season, they perform MUCH better at home than on the road.  And in the season's final week, they're especally BAD on the road, as they're 8-22-1 ATS, including 2-7 ATS if they were on a 5-game (or worse) losing streak.  We'll lay the points with Tampa Bay, as defending Super Bowl champs are a super 29-13 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 9+ points, if matched up against .375 (or worse) opposition.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Kansas City.  The Broncos will wind-up their season this afternoon in front of their home faithful.  And, although it's been a losing season, Denver's defense has played well, and has given up more than 23 points just four times this season.  That bodes well for them as a big underdog, as NFL teams that give up 21 or less points per game have gone 113-81 ATS in the regular season as an underdog of +10.5 (or more) points.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Minnesota.  We played on the Vikings in the first meeting, and got the $$$ when Minny upended Green Bay, 34-31, in a wild affair.  But this game should have not near that level of drama, as Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins has been sidelined.  Sean Mannion will replace Cousins, so that's a big reason for us to be pulling the trigger on Green Bay.  With Aaron Rodgers at QB, the Packers are a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, if they failed to cover the spread in their previous game.  And Green Bay is a virtually perfect 9-1 ATS when priced from -11.5 to -13 points with Rodgers, so that also bodes well for Matt LaFleur's men.  As does the fact that Green Bay is 38-13 ATS at home in the final four regular season games, if the Packers owned a win percentage greater than .625.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over New Orleans.  The Saints have scored a grand total of 12 points in their last two games combined.  Yet they're favored by more than 6 points this afternoon against a division rival which held them to 7 points in the first meeting.  Admittedly, Carolina is not a very good team right now, as it's lost five straight games (both SU and ATS).  But I still will happily take the points in this matchup.  Indeed, NFL teams off 5 SU/ATS losses have gone 103-68-3 ATS.  Moreover, New Orleans is a wallet-breaking 16-44-1 ATS at home vs. division foe off a loss.  And Carolina is 44-21 ATS as a road underdog vs. opponents that don't have a winning record.  Grab the points with the Panthers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Houston.  The Texans pulled off a massive upset last week, when they took down the Los Angeles Chargers, 41-29, as a 13-point underdog.  And that was Houston's 2nd straight upset victory, as it went into Jacksonville two weeks ago and surprised the Jaguars with a 30-16 triumph.  Generally, NFL teams are poor after winning a game as a 13-point (or greater) underdog, as they've gone 12-26 ATS their last 38.  And road teams off back to back upset wins are a soft 49-77-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes.  Take San Francisco minus the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers UNDER the total.  The Broncos come into this game off back to back unders, and they've also gone under in 12 of 15 games this season, including 6 of 7 road games.  Even better:  dating back 44 years, the Chargers have gone 'under' 81-34-1 at home vs. division rivals, including 18-5 'under' the past eight seasons, and 26-9 'under' when priced from 44 to 47.5 points.  This will be another low-scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Raiders upset Denver at home last week.  Unfortunately, they're a poor 6-26 ATS off a home upset win, so that doesn't bode well for the Silver and Black today.  Also, this season, Indianapolis has been the best point spread team.  It ranks #1 (tied with New England) in average point spread differential (+6.40), but the Colts edge the Patriots' in ATS win percentage, as Indy is 10-5 ATS while New England is 9-6 ATS.  The Colts ATS percentage is tied (with Detroit) for 3rd, and only bettered by Green Bay (11-4 ATS) and Dallas (12-3 ATS).  I look for Indianapolis' success to continue this afternoon, especially since it received welcome news when QB Carson Wentz was upgraded to 'probable.'  Take the Colts.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Football Team to go UNDER the total.  These two teams played a mere two weeks ago.  Washington QB Taylor Heinicke missed that game, with Garrett Gilbert starting in his stead, and the over/under line was set at 39.5 points.  Heinicke is back for this game, so the over/under line has been adjusted higher.  But it's been adjusted a bit too much, very likely due to the two teams' most recent scores.  Philadelphia has played its last three games over the total, and has scored 33, 27 and 34 in its last three games.  Meanwhile, Washington gave up 27, 27 and 56 in its last three games.  But teams have gone 'under' the total in 11 of 15 games following a game in which they allowed 54+ points.  And the Eagles have played their last five UNDER following 3 overs (and 26 of their last 36 UNDER following 3 overs), including 14 of 17 UNDER it it was a division game.  Take Washington and Philly to go UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Seattle/Chicago game.  In its last game, the Seahawks managed to score just 10 points, in their 20-10 loss at Los Angeles.   But the Seahawks have gone OVER the total in 30 of 47 home games after scoring 10 or less points the previous week in a game which went under the total.  Additionally, this game falls into two totals systems of mine that are 96-52 and 38-16.  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills OVER the total.  The Patriots have gone 'over' the total in each of their last four home games, while Buffalo is 10-4-2 OVER the total its last 16 road games.  We'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on this Sunday afternoon, as the OVER falls into a 71-43 Totals system of mine.  Additionally, Buffalo was upset by New England in the season's first meeting, and scored just 10 points in that game.  And you would have to go back 55 games to find the last time Buffalo scored so few points in a home upset loss.  But NFL teams playing with revenge from an upset loss in which they scored 10 (or less) points tend to bounce back on offense in the season's next meeting, as 59% exceeded their offensive ppg average, and the OVER has cashed 66.1%.  Take the Bills and Patriots to go 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Detroit.  We played on the Lions last week as our NFL Underdog Shocker of the Month, and easily got the $$$ as Detroit won outright, 30-12, as a 13-point home underdog.  But that was a perfect set-up for Detroit, as it was blown out by the Broncos the previous week.  And Detroit's now 5-0 ATS this season off a point spread defeat.  But it's also 55-83-4 ATS on the road off a SU win.  That doesn't bode well for the Lions on Sunday.  Nor does that fact that, at Game 7 forward, NFL teams with a .200 (or worse) W/L record have covered just 23.3% after beating the point spread by more than 7 points in their previous game.  These two teams met here last season, and Detroit upset the Falcons, 23-22.  But the Lions are an awful 7-19 ATS as an underdog of less than 8 points, if they were off a win, and playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars over the New York Jets.  Last week, the Jaguars lost at home to Houston, 30-16, which was their 6th straight loss and 5th straight ATS defeat.  We played on the OVER 39.5 in that game, so we were thrilled with the result.  This week, we'll take Jacksonville to finally break into the win column for the first time in seven weeks.  And our play is as much a play AGAINST New York, as it is a play ON Jacksonville.  Indeed, the Jets are a horrid 2-12 ATS their last 14 (and have covered just 65 of their last 186) at home vs. foe that didn't have a winning record!  And .333 (or worse) teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have gone 112-74 ATS.  Take Jacksonville.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over the Indianapolis Colts.  Last week, we cashed our NFL Game of the Month on the Colts, who snapped New England's 7-game win streak.  And we also cashed our NFL Underdog Shocker of the Month on the Lions against the Cardinals, when Detroit upset Arizona, as a 13-point underdog.  This week, we'll completely reverse course, and TAKE Arizona, and go AGAINST Indianapolis.  The Cardinals are a dominant 29-6-1 ATS at home when not laying 3+ points against a foe off a SU/ATS win, while Indy is 4-8 ATS as a road underdog off a win vs. foes off back to back losses.  And teams (like Indianapolis) off wins over foes that were on a 6-game (or better) win streak have gone 34-50 ATS in their next game when not laying 3+ points. 

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Los Angeles.  The Rams come into this game off back to back wins over Jacksonville and Arizona.  And that victory over the Cardinals was an upset win as a 3-point road underdog.  The Rams have been very good since Sean McVay took over as head coach in 2017 when they have been off a loss (17-8 SU, 15-9 ATS), but awful when they've been off back to back wins (15-17 SU, 9-23 ATS), including 0-10 ATS their last 10 as a favorite off back-to-back wins.  That doesn't bode well for Los Angeles tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Seahawks will be playing with revenge from a 26-17 defeat to the Rams earlier this year.  And Seattle is 23-11 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 12-2 ATS when catching 3+ points.  Finally, Seattle falls into a 76% ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams against foes off wins.  Take the Seahawks + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings game.  Both teams come into this game off high-scoring affairs.  The Vikings tallied 36 last week in an 8-point win over Pittsburgh, while Chicago posted 30 in a 15-point loss at Green Bay.  And the aggregate points of each team's last two games, combined, have been 120 (Minnesota) and 130 (Chicago) points.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game tonight.  But NFL games have gone under the total 75% over the last 42 years if both teams' previous two games combined for 120+ points, with each game going 'over' the total, and each of the teams scored 28+ points in its previous game.  That bodes well for the 'under' tonight.  As does the fact that the Bears have gone 'under' the total in 23 of 33 division games when installed as a home underdog, including 12-0 UNDER when the line ranged from 42 to 48 points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Arizona.  The Lions are 1-11-1, but they play extremely hard, and have covered the spread in eight of their 13 games, including four of their last five.  They were blown out, 38-10, by Denver last week, so that was one of the five instances they didn't cover the spread.  But, frankly, that was to be somewhat expected given that Detroit had actually won its first game of the season the previous week vs. Minnesota, while Denver was looking to redeem itself following its double-digit loss the previous week.  We had a play against Detroit last week, but we will switch gears and take it this afternoon.  Indeed, Detroit is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season off a point spread defeat (and also 4-0 ATS off a double-digit loss).  And it's 29-11 ATS as an underdog off a double-digit loss, when matched up against an opponent off a defeat.  Arizona does have the league's best record, at 10-3, but it did lose last week, at home, vs. the Rams.  Unfortunately, teams with exceptional W/L records have NOT bounced back off losses late in the regular season, as they've covered just 37.1% at Game 14 forward in the regular season.  And the league's worst teams -- with win percentages less than .150 -- have done great toward the end of the season, when installed as a home underdog vs. an opponent off a loss, as they've gone 35-20 ATS since 1980 at Game 12 forward.  Take Detroit + the double-digits.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans to go OVER the total.  The Jaguars fired Urban Meyer this week, and have named offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell as interim head coach.  Jacksonville's offense has been moribund of late, as it's scored just 64 points over its last seven games, including a shutout loss last week at Tennessee.  Not surprisingly, Jacksonville's last eight games have all gone 'under' the total.  But there is good reason to expect a different result this afternoon.  First and foremost, the over/under line is the lowest this season for a Jaguars game by 5 points (more than the 2nd lowest O/U line).  Indeed, four of Jacksonville's last eight games would have gone 'over' the total had the line been this low.  Additionally, NFL teams that scored less than 14 points in their previous game, and have gone 'under' the total six (or more) games in a row have gone OVER 65.1% since 1980 in games with lines less than 43 points.  I look for a relatively high scoring game this afternoon.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over New England.  Dating back to October 24, New England has ripped off seven straight wins and covers.  But only one of the seven teams it has defeated (Tennessee) has had a winning record in its games since October 24.  So, Indianapolis will represent a great challenge for New England, given that the Colts are 6-2 over their last eight games (and 7-3 ATS over their last 10).  Last week, the Colts accomplished an impressive feat, when it shut out the Texans on the road, 31-0.  And NFL teams off road shutout wins have gone 68-45-2 ATS since 1980.  Even better:  the Patriots had last week off following their big upset win at division rival, Buffalo.  But when a team is playing as well as New England, it can often be counter-productive in the regular season to have a week off.  Indeed, rested NFL underdogs off a division win (and 3 straight ATS wins overall) have gone 0-15 straight-up and 1-13-1 ATS in the regular season since 1980.  Take the Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers Under the total.  These two AFC West division rivals both scored a lot of points in victory last week.  Kansas City tallied 48 at home vs. Las Vegas, while Los Angeles scored 37 at the New York Giants.  But we will look for a much lower scoring game at SoFi Stadium tonight.  Key Stat:  the Chargers have gone UNDER the total 81-33-1 at home vs. division rivals over the last 34 seasons, including 11-2 UNDER if the line was 49+ points; 30-8 UNDER if both went Over the total in their previous game; and 34-14 UNDER as an underdog.  This will be another low-scoring division game for Los Angeles.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals UNDER the total.  After giving up 28, 31 and 36 its three previous games, the Rams' defense surrendered just seven last week to the Jaguars.  And L.A.'s game went 'under' the total.  I look for another supreme effort by the Rams' stop unit on Monday, as it will be looking to redeem itself after giving up 37 points to the Cardinals when the two teams met in October.  The last three times the Rams gave up more than 28 points to a division foe in the season's first meeting, it rebounded to hold that foe to 10, 12, and 12 points in the rematch.  Seventeen of the last 27 meetings between these two NFC West division teams have gone 'under' the total, and we'll look for a relatively low scoring game on Monday.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over Detroit.  After coming close to victory five times, the Lions finally broke through at their sixth opportunity when they scored on the final play to upend division rival, Minnesota, 29-27.  But off that emotional win, we will fade Detroit on the road this Sunday.  They'll have the tall task of facing a Broncos club which lost, 22-9, last week at Kansas City to fall to 6-6 on the season.  And Denver now sits one game behind 7th-seeded Buffalo for the final playoff berth in the bunched-up AFC Conference.  Towards the end of the season (Game 13 forward), it's been very profitable -- 64% -- to play on .500 (or better) teams at home off a loss, when matched up against losing opponents off an upset win.  Additionally, Denver's cashed 88% at home since 1980 off a loss by more than 7 points, if its opponent was off an upset win.  And road dogs have cashed just 37% off an upset division win at home, when matched up against a non-division foe off a SU/ATS loss.  Lay the points with Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers minus the points over Atlanta.  These two teams met in Atlanta on Halloween, and the Panthers were installed as a 2.5-point road underdog.  We played on Carolina in that game, and were rewarded with a 19-13 upset victory.  Carolina dominated the game, as it outyarded the Falcons, 332-213, had more first downs (21-17), and controlled time of possession (35:23 to 24:37).  For today's game, the Panthers will have an advantage of playing with an extra week of rest following its 33-10 upset loss at Miami two weeks ago.  And the Panthers are a super 20-8 ATS in division games off an upset loss.  Even better:  they're 27-9-1 ATS off a double-digit loss, if they weren't getting 3+ points in their current game.  Take Carolina minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Seattle.  The Texans come into this game off a horrible offensive performance, which saw them net just 84 rushing yards and 57 passing yards.  And they scored 0 points.  That was Houston's 2nd straight loss (both at home), so this game will conclude its 3-game home stand.  Over the last 42 years, NFL home teams have done exceedingly well off back to back home losses, as they've cashed 61 percent, including the last seven in a row.  And if our home team lost by more than 23 points in its previous game, then they've gone a perfect 9-0 ATS.  The Seahawks are not deserving to lay this many points on the road.  Seattle is 1-3 SU/ATS since QB Russell Wilson returned from injury, and averaged just 14.5 ppg in those four games.  Seattle has a negative 0.83 scoring margin for the season.  And at Game 5 forward, NFL teams with negative scoring margins of minus 0.25 (or worse) are a horrid 0-16 ATS as road favorites of -7 (or more) points when playing an opponent off a loss by 7+ points.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Vikes lost their last two games to fall to 5-7 on the season, but each of those two was on the road.  Tonight, Minnesota is back home, and home favorites have gone 80-53 ATS in weekday games if they played their two previous games on the road.  Even better:  the Steelers upset their biggest rival (Baltimore) last Sunday, and are now 6-5-1 on the season.  Unfortunately, winning teams have cashed 0 of 8 as underdogs of less than 6 points in Thursday games, if they were matched up against a losing opponent.  Minnesota is also 12-0-1 ATS at home off a loss when matched up against .375 (or better) non-division foes.  Lay the points with the Vikings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over New England.  Bill Belichick's men are currently riding a 6-game SU/ATS win streak, and have scored an average of 35.16 ppg (after averaging 20.83 ppg over their first 6 games).  Meanwhile, the Bills are 3-3 over their previous six games, and have seen their offensive output drop from 34.4 ppg prior to those six games to 25.66 ppg over their last 6 outings.  But I love Buffalo to bounce back on this Monday.  Indeed, the Bills won both meetings vs. New England last season, and scored 38 and 24 points in those two games.  And NFL teams (like New England) off 3 SU/ATS wins by 20+ points have covered just 1 of 14 regular season road games vs. winning opposition.  Take Buffalo minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Denver.  Going into Halloween weekend, each of these two teams was 3-4, and their prospects for reaching the postseason were diminished.  But Denver has won 3 of 4 since, while KC is riding a 4-game win streak.  So, the winner of this game will be atop the division (or tied), and be in control of its playoff destiny.  We'll lay the points with Kansas City, and go against a Broncos club off an upset win as a home underdog last week.  Since 1980, winning teams have gone 45-74-2 ATS on the road, if they were off a double-digit upset home win, and not favored by 7+ points in their current game.  Moreover, KC has gone 28-16 ATS vs. foes that covered the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game.  Lay the points with Patrick Mahomes & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Arizona Cardinals.  In its last game, Arizona went into Seattle, and upset the Seahawks as a 4.5-point road underdog, 23-13.  But off that division upset win, we will fade Arizona as a non-division road favorite.  Indeed, the Cardinals have covered just 4 of 17 non-division games off an upset division win, in which they covered the spread by 10+ points (and NFL teams have covered just 186 of 430).  Meanwhile, the Bears are an awesome 9-0 ATS as a home underdog of +6 (or more) points if they didn't cover the spread in either of their two previous games.  With Chicago in off back to back ATS losses to Detroit and Baltimore, we'll grab the points with Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Cincinnati.  The Chargers were upset by division rival, Denver, 28-13, last Sunday, while Cincinnati blew out its division rival, Pittsburgh, here at home, 41-10.  But off those results, we'll grab the points with the Chargers, as road teams have covered 72% of non-division games since 1982, if they were off an upset loss, and not getting more than 4 points from a foe off a home division blowout win by 15+ points.  Additionally, Los Angeles is an awesome 47-21-1 ATS as a road underdog vs. .666 (or worse) teams off a win.  Grab the points with the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over the Green Bay Packers.  We played against Green Bay last week, and took Minnesota as a home dog, and were rewarded with an upset win.  And we'll once again go against Aaron Rodgers & Co. this afternoon -- primarily because the Rams are off back to back losses.  Los Angeles comes into this game off an upset defeat last week at San Francisco, and they lost to the Titans two games back.  And the Rams will also be playing this game with revenge from a loss to Green Bay in last year's playoffs.  This season, teams playing with revenge from a playoff defeat  have gone 6-1 ATS.  And over the last 42 years, teams playing with Playoff revenge have cashed 59% if they were matched up against a non-division foe, and were off a road loss in their previous game.  Even better:  if our revenger also lost two games back, then our 59% stat zooms to 13-1 ATS since 1980.  The Rams have been consistently very strong off losses under head coach Sean McVay.  Since his hiring in 2017, the Rams are 16-7 SU and 14-8-1 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 9-1 ATS when not laying 3 or more points, 9-3 ATS on the road, and 3-1-1 ATS off back to back losses.  Take the Rams.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over New England.  The Titans' offense has struggled the last two weeks without Derrick Henry in the fold, as they had two of their three lowest offensive outputs of the season, and failed to cover vs. New Orleans and Houston (and lost to Houston outright, as a 10.5-point favorite).  Meanwhile, the Patriots have been the hottest team in football, with five straight wins and covers, to move to 7-4 on the season.  Unfortunately for Bill Belichick's men, NFL teams off 5 SU/ATS wins have gone 69-90-6 ATS in the regular season when favored.  And teams -- like Tennessee -- off upset losses as favorites of more than 10 points, have gone 27-14 ATS, including 7-0 ATS when installed as an underdog of +4 to +9.5 points.  Take the Titans as a road underdog.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Houston.  The Texans snapped their 8-game losing streak last week when they upset Tennessee, 22-13, as a 10.5-point road underdog.  But off that huge upset win, we will fade the Texans as a home favorite this afternoon.  Since 1991, NFL teams off wins as a double-digit road underdog have gone 47-73-5 ATS, including 22-47-3 ATS vs. foes that don't have a winning record.  Additionally, the Texans are a poor 19-32 ATS off an upset win.  Take New York + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Atlanta/Jacksonville game.  The Jaguars have played their last five games Under the total, while the Falcons were shutout in their last game, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game this afternoon.  But teams off 5 straight unders have gone 'over' the total in their next game more often than not.  Additionally, when teams have gone 'under' in 4+ straight games, and their foe scored 7 or less in its previous game, those games have gone OVER the total 62.3% since 1980.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Falcons are 4-6, and have dropped back to back games, as they lost by 40 to Dallas, and 25 to New England.  Yet they've been installed as a road favorite vs. Jacksonville.  On the surface, it may look difficult to lay points on the road with Atlanta.  But consider that NFL road teams have covered 65.3% over the past 42 seasons off back to back losses by more than 18 points, if their opponent was also off a SU loss.  That bodes well for Matt Ryan & Co. this afternoon.  As does the fact that .200 (or worse) teams, at Game 11 forward, have covered just 61 of 150 games if they weren't getting 4+ points.  Finally, the Jaguars are a wallet-busting 9-28-1 ATS as single-digit home dogs vs. non-division foes.  Lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over Dallas.  The Raiders sprinted out to a 5-2 start, including two impressive wins against Denver and Philadelphia following the Jon Gruden resignation.  But then WR Henry Ruggs caused real damage to the team (not to mention himself, and the woman he killed), and the Raiders proceeded to lose their next three games to the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals.  Las Vegas is 5-5, so it needs to win this afternoon to get back in the Wild Card hunt.  We'll take the points, as .500 (or better) NFL teams, off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points, have cashed 65.7% since 1980 vs. .700 (or better) opposition.  Additionally, the Cowboys have covered just 10 of 37 games as a home favorite vs. non-division foes, if that opponent entered off a home loss.  Take the Raiders + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over the New York Giants.  We had our 2nd biggest play last week on the Washington Football Team as a double-digit dog vs. Tampa, and were rewarded with a huge upset win against Tom Brady & Co.  But Brady's teams have bounced back strong off losses in his career, as they've gone 58-31 ATS, including a perfect 4-0 ATS on Monday and Thursday night games, and 18-2 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back ATS wins.  With New York, indeed, riding a 3-game point spread win streak, we'll fade the Giants in Tampa.  Take the Buccaneers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Dallas.  To borrow a line from Mark Twain, the reports of Kansas City's death have been an exaggeration.  Yes, the Chiefs have not looked, at times, like the juggernaut from 2019-20, but their 41-14 dismantling of Las Vegas last week should serve as a reminder that they are a force with which to be reckoned.  And I believe the Chiefs are still woefully undervalued.  Last week, they laid just 2.5 points on the road vs. the Raiders (after being favored by 7.5, 7, and 14.5 points at the Raiders the three previous seasons).  Now, they're a short home favorite vs. an admittedly good Dallas team.  Still, Kansas City is 46-24 ATS in the regular season when not laying more than 7 points.  Meanwhile, Dallas is 14-33-1 ATS vs. winning opposition when not getting 3+ points.  Take the Chiefs to blow out Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  Green Bay is 8-2, and has covered nine straight games (winning eight, straight-up), heading into this divisional match-up vs. Minnesota, which is 4-5 on the season.  Unfortunately, teams off 9 straight ATS wins have gone 0-5 ATS since Jan. 8, 2005.  And road teams, at Game 11 forward, have cashed just 1 of 14 divisional games vs. losing opposition, if our road team's ATS win percentage was greater than .750.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Miami.  The Dolphins pulled off a massive upset last week when they defeated the Baltimore Ravens, as an 8.5-point home dog.  Unfortunately, road teams have covered just 60 of 149 over the last 42 years following an upset win as a dog of more than 8 points, and just 37% when priced as a road favorite.  Take the New York Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:20 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the New England Patriots.  The Patriots have won and covered four straight games following their overtime defeat to the Dallas Cowboys.  And their last game was the most impressive, as they completely dismantled a good Cleveland Browns club, 45-7, as a 2.5-point favorite.  They'll now play a Falcons squad which was destroyed last week by Dallas, 43-3.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with New England, given that it won by 38 last week, while Atlanta lost by 40.  But consider that home underdogs, priced from +3 to +14 points, have gone 85-59 ATS off a loss by more than 14 points, if their opponent was off a win by more than 14 points.  Even better:  if our home dog gave up 37+ points in that previous game, while our road favorite scored 37+ points in its previous game, then our 85-59 stat zooms to a perfect 11-0 ATS.  Take Atlanta + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Denver.  Last Sunday, the Broncos blew out Dallas, 30-16, as a double-digit underdog.  We had a big play on Denver last week, but will go against them here, as a home favorite.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams with a win percentage greater than .300, off a double-digit win as a double-digit underdog, have covered just 10 of 40 games.  That doesn't bode well for Denver on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that the Broncos are a woeful 13-26 ATS as a home favorite of more than 2 points off an upset win.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cards will be without QB Kyler Murray, and WR Deandre Hopkins this afternoon.  And that's enough for us to pull the trigger on Carolina (which will be starting its own backup QB in PJ Walker).  The Cardinals pulled off an upset last week against division rival San Francisco.  And that upset win over a division foe has triggered a very good 110-48-4 ATS system of mine, as well as a 119-73 ATS angle.  The Panthers have won + covered 5 straight in this series, including 10-point and 18-point upset wins the past two seasons.  Finally, the Cardinals are a dreadful 10-28 ATS as home favorites vs. foes not off an ATS win.  Take the Panthers as a road underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Tennessee.  The Titans pulled off a stunning upset last week, as a 7-point road underdog, for their fifth straight victory and ATS win.  And their last four wins were all upsets, as they also upset the Colts, in overtime, two weeks ago, and the Chiefs and Bills before that.  Unfortunately for the Titans, favorites (or PK) off 3 straight covers have gone 0-9 ATS their last 9, and 22-53-2 ATS their last 75, while favorites off 4 straight upset wins have covered just 14% since 1980.  Meanwhile, the Saints suffered an upset loss at the hands of the Falcons.  But NFL teams off upset losses have covered 52 of 75 vs. .750 (or better) teams off upset wins, if our team off the loss wasn't getting 6+ points in the current game.  Take the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Cleveland.  The Browns upset division rival Cincinnati, 41-16, last Sunday, and will try to make it two upsets in a row when they take on the Patriots.  But underdogs are a wallet-breaking 60-94 ATS off upset wins by 20+ points.  And .500 (or better) teams have gone 6-24 straight-up, and have covered just 7 of 30 games, against the Patriots in Foxboro, if our road team wasn't getting more than 7 points.  Take New England to blow out the Browns.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Pittsburgh.  The Lions are winless (0-8) on the season.  But they've actually performed better "in Vegas" than the 5-3 Steelers.  Detroit has gone 4-4 ATS, while Pittsburgh is 3-5 ATS after its point spread defeat this past Monday vs. Chicago.  We'll take the points with the Lions, as winless teams have gone 70-39 ATS as road underdogs of +7 (or more) points, if they were matched up against an opponent off a point spread defeat.  Take Detroit.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Buffalo/New York Jets game.  The Bills were shocked last week by the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were a 14.5-point underdog, yet won, 9-6.  The Bills tend to bounce back from losses, and their games also tend to be relatively low-scoring.  Indeed, Buffalo has played its last eight games 'under' the total following a straight-up loss, and 18 of its last 24, including 9-0 UNDER if the line was 42+ points.  Take the Jets/Bills UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Football Team + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  When these two teams last met, the Bucs ousted Washington from the Playoffs, in a 31-23 win, as a 13.5-point road favorite.  Once again, the Bucs are favored by a big number on the road, and we'll grab the points with the home underdog.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams playing with revenge from a playoff defeat in the previous season have covered 73.3% when installed as a double-digit underdog.  Even better:  home underdogs priced from +7 to +13 points have gone 43-16 ATS vs. defending Super Bowl champions.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Jacksonville.  Last week, Urban Meyer's Jaguars upset Buffalo, 9-6, as a massive 14.5-point underdog.  Can they pull off back-to-back upsets?  It's definitely not likely, for several reasons.  First, last week's game was at home, vs. a non-division foe, while this is on the road, against a division rival.  And NFL road underdogs of more than 4 points have gone 13-98 SU and 35-73-3 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog of more than 4 points.  Likewise, NFL teams off upset wins at home vs. non-division foes have gone 94-129 ATS on the road vs. division rivals, including 38-68 ATS vs. foes off a SU win.  Take the Colts minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over the Green Bay Packers.  This game should have been a showcase for the two best quarterbacks in the game, but Aaron Rodgers contracted COVID-19, so he's on the shelf.  Jordan Love will now start for the Packers, so there's quite a mismatch behind center.  Green Bay has been terrific with Rodgers starting at quarterback (127-86-5 ATS in his career), but has burned money when he's been sidelined (7-11 ATS).  It's true that the Packers are on a 7-game SU/ATS win streak.  But NFL underdogs of more than 6 points, off 4 (or more) wins, have gone 1-17 SU and 3-15 ATS in the regular season vs. foes not off a SU/ATS win.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Kansas City.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

t 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs OVER the total.  The Packers have played their last five games 'under' the total, while the Chiefs have played their last 3 'under.'  Now, with 2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers sidelined, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game with Jordan Love at quarterback for Green Bay.  But consider that games involving one team off 5+ unders vs. another team off 3+ unders have gone OVER the total 55% of the time, including 63% when the O/U line has been greater than 40 points.  And the Chiefs also fall into a 126-76 Totals system of mine which indicates that they will go OVER the total.  This will be a high-scoring game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Arizona.  We played on the 49ers in the first meeting, and lost as a 5-point underdog, 17-10.  We'll take San Francisco to avenge that defeat in this rematch, as it falls into several of my favorite NFL systems, which have records of 243-148, 40-19, 224-141, and 225-128 ATS since 1980.  Even worse for Arizona.  It lost its first game, as a 6.5-point home favorite, vs. Green Bay last week.  But, dating back to 1987, .680 (or better) teams, off an upset loss, have cashed just 33.9% vs. foes off a straight-up win.  That doesn't bode well for Arizona to bounce back.  Take the Niners minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Cowboys have covered each of their first 7 games.  Unfortunately, NFL teams that start the season with a 4-0 (or better) ATS record have covered just 39.4% at home vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  With the Broncos, indeed, off a SU/ATS win last week vs. Washington, the elements of our angle are satisfied.  Denver also falls into 224-121 and 191-97 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams with winning ATS records.  Grab the points with the Broncos.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Buffalo.  The Jaguars finally got into the win column two games ago, when they beat Miami, but then lost to the Seahawks, 31-7, last week.  The Jags have been installed as a double-digit home underdog vs. the 5-2 Bills.  And it's been very profitable over the years to take double-digit home dogs, and especially if they were competitive in at least one of their two previous games, and their opponent wasn't off a SU loss.  In this situation, our double-digit home dogs have gone 84-48-2 ATS.  Even better, home dogs off a 23-point loss have gone 178-122 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes.  Take the Jaguars + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Cleveland.  Last week, we played against the Bengals following their huge upset win at Baltimore.  So, it wasn't a surprise that they suffered the biggest upset of any NFL team this season when they lost, 34-31, as a 10.5-point favorite to the New York Jets.  But off that embarrassing defeat, we'll take the Bengals to bounce back strong in this division rivalry.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, teams that lost on the road as a double-digit favorite have bounced back to cover the spread 60% of the time, including 80% ATS if they weren't favored by 3 points in the current game!  Even better:  the Bengals are 16-4 ATS their last 20 division home games when priced from -2 to -5.5 points.  Take the Bengals minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  Last week, we played on the Saints in their upset win, as a 4-point home dog, over the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers.  But teams generally suffer letdowns following such games, and are a wallet-busting 39% ATS after a home upset win over defending champions, including 10-24 ATS their last 24 if they were an underdog of 4+ points in that upset win.  We also played against the Falcons last week, and got the $$$ when Carolina upset Atlanta on the road.   But I expect a bounce-back here, as the Falcons are a super 24-9 their last 33 as a road underdog, including 15-3 ATS if they weren't off a win in their previous game.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts UNDER the total.  The Jets have played their last four games OVER, including a 34-31 upset of the Bengals last week.  Meanwhile, the Colts have played four of their last 5 OVER, including a 34-31 overtime loss to Tennessee last week.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game tonight.  But I don't see it that way, as my numbers project a relatively low-scoring game.  Indeed, games involving a team off 4+ overs, with over/under lines of 45+ points, have gone 'under' 57% majority of the time when their opponent was also off 2+ overs.  Likewise, in matchups between two teams that were each involved in high-scoring (59+ points) games their last time out, the 'under' has cashed 67.8% over the past 36+ seasons when the over/under line ranged from 45 to 52 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys have won five straight games, yet find themselves installed as a road underdog tonight, as they might be without their quarterback, Dak Prescott, who is a 'game-time decision.'  We'll lay the points with Minnesota, and play against Dallas, as .800 (or better) NFL underdogs, at Game 7 forward, have covered just 31% of non-division games since 1980 when matched up against a non-winning opponent.  Take the Vikings to hand Dallas its first loss since Week 1.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the ponts over Tampa Bay.  The defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers routed the Chicago Bears, 38-3, last weekend.  Unfortunately, defending Super Bowl champs have covered just 33% as road favorites the following week after winning by 20+ points.  Moreover, Sean Payton has gone 59-27 ATS as coach of the Saints vs. .500 (or better) foes off a SU win.  Take New Orleans + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and Houston Texans to go OVER the total.  The Rams are averaging 29.57 ppg, and have scored 28, 38, and 26 over their last three games.  They will surely put up points against a Texans club which has surrendered 31, 31 and 25 over its last three outings.  And while it's true that Houston's offense has its own issues, it did put up 22 vs. a very good Patriots defense here in its most recent home game.  And it's averaging 22.66 ppg at home this season (compared to just 7.25 ppg on the road).  I expect Houston to put up a much better fight this afternoon in front of its home faithful than it did on the road the past two weeks.  And the OVER also falls into a 62-31 Totals system of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals UNDER the total.  This is the Bengals 3rd straight road game, and they exploded for 34 and 41 points in their first two.  Unfortunately that offensive output is unlikely to occur for a 3rd straight road game, as NFL teams that scored more than 28 in back to back road games only average 15.75 ppg in the 3rd road game.  And those games have gone 'under' the total by an average of 5.06 ppg.  The UNDER also falls into a super 92-46 Totals system of mine, and we'll look for a low-scoring game on Sunday.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Buffalo.  These two teams met earlier this season, and the Bills walloped the Dolphins, 35-0.  We'll take Miami in the rematch as a huge double digit underdog, as NFL teams that played with revenge from a shutout loss earlier in the season, have cashed 70% when getting more than 4 points.  Additionally, since 1980, NFL teams playing with revenge from a loss by 35+ points have covered 68.4% vs. .666 (or better) division foes.  Take Miami + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Tennessee.  The Titans pulled off a big upset last week, when they knocked off Kansas City, 27-3, as a 4-point home underdog.  And that was the 2nd straight upset win at home by Tennessee.  But they're now playing on the road, and against a division foe which will seek revenge from a 9-point loss in Nashville, in September.  We'll go against Tennessee, as unrested road underdogs have covered just 38.7% over the last 42 seasons following back to back home upset wins.  Take Indianapolis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Cincinnati.  The 5-2 Bengals come into New York off a huge divisional upset win over the Baltimore Ravens, as they snapped Baltimore's 5-game win streak.  But NFL road favorites have covered just 28% since 1980 after an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog, if that upset win involved two teams with .666 (or better) win percentages.  I look for a big letdown by the Bengals on the road.  Take the Jets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  Carolina has lost its last 4 games in a row, but now fall into a 37-11 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams on long losing streaks, as well as a 51-32 ATS angle which plays on teams off outright losses as a road favorite, when matched up against opponents off SU/ATS wins as a road favorite.  With Carolina, indeed, off an upset, 25-3, loss on the road at New York, and Atlanta in off a road favorite SU/ATS win over the Dolphins, we'll grab the points with Carolina this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Indianapolis.  Jimmy Garoppolo will be back on the field for this Sunday Night game, and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the 49ers.  In their last game, the Niners started rookie Trey Lance and -- though he did some things well -- on balance, he underwhelmed, (15-for-29, 192 yds, 1 INT), and was stopped at the goal line on a key rush attempt.  The 49ers had last week off to regroup from that loss (and the two previous losses before it), so they'll try to snap their 3-game losing streak tonight.  Key stat:  rested teams off 3+ losses are 85-58-2 ATS their last 145.  Even better:  San Francisco 84-57-3 ATS when favored by 3.5 (or more) points off an ATS loss, and it is also 7-0 ATS after not covering the spread in any of their three previous games.  Take the 49ers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals are undefeated, and outscoring their opponents by 14.16 ppg.  On the opposite end of the spectrum are the Texans, who are being outscored by 13.33 ppg.  Thus, the relative Total Scoring Margin is +27.5 ppg for Arizona, which explains why we have such a high point spread.  But in the NFL, it's tough to lay this many points, regardless of how good (or bad) a team is.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams getting more than 17 points have cashed 21 of 36 games (58.3% ATS).  But if our underdog's relative scoring margin ranged between -20 and -30.5 points, then our underdogs of more than 17 points have gone 17-1 ATS, including an outright win by the Jets (+17.5) over the Rams last December, and another outright win by the Dolphins (+17.5) over the Patriots in December 2019.  Take Houston as a huge underdog.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Las Vegas.  The Eagles last played 10 days ago, when they lost (but covered) in a Thursday Night home game vs. the defending champion, Buccaneers.  And that was the 2nd straight ATS win for Philadelphia.  Meanwhile, the Raiders started the post-Jon Gruden Era with a 34-24 upset win over division rival, Denver.  Unfortunately for the Raiders, they've covered just 29 of 84 following an upset win, including just 14 of 48 if their opponent was off a SU loss.  And Philly is an awesome 62-35-1 ATS in non-division games off a SU loss, if it wasn't favored by 3 or more points.  We'll grab the points with the road underdog Eagles.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants UNDER the total.  After giving up 44 points to Dallas and 38 points to the Los Angeles Rams (both of which average more than 400 yards per game), the Giants will no doubt be happy to face a middle-of-the-pack offensive team like Carolina.  Over the last 42 years, the Giants have gone 'under' the total 75% of the time after giving up 34+ points in back to back losses.  And they've also gone under 59% after a loss by 27+ points.  Finally, the Giants have gone 'under' in 19 of 28 games as a home underdog, including the last 6 in a row, while Carolina is 9-2 'under' as a road favorite.  This will be a very low-scoring game.  Take the under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers are sitting at 5-1, with five straight wins and covers following their season-opening blowout loss vs. New Orleans.  Meanwhile, Washington is off back to back SU/ATS losses.  That's led to this number being inflated, and we'll step in and take Washington + the points.  For technical support, consider that Washington is 46-25 ATS vs. non-division foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  And the Packers have covered just 2 of 12 games vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss, if the Packers were off 4 SU/ATS wins.  Finally, NFL teams off 5 SU/ATS wins have covered just 36% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses since 1980.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Tennessee.  We played on the Titans as a home underdog last Monday night, and were rewarded with an upset win over the Buffalo Bills.  But off that victory, we will fade the Titans here, at home, as an underdog against Kansas City.  The fact of the matter is that it's tough for teams to pull off two straight upset wins, when coming off a short week following an upset win on Monday Night Football.  Indeed, consider that, since 1994, at Game 3 forward, NFL home dogs of less than seven points have gone 0-13 SU/ATS after an upset win at home on Monday Night Football the previous week.  That doesn't bode well for Tennessee here.  Likewise, if the short week was Sunday thru Thursday, those teams coming off an upset home win have gone 5-11 ATS as an underdog of less than 7 points (so, 5-24 ATS combined).  Finally, since Andy Reid has been coach of KC, it has gone 27-13 ATS vs. foes that covered the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game.  Take the Chiefs minus the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  The Dolphins were upset in London by the previously-winless Jaguars, 23-20, last Sunday.  Atlanta also played in London in its last game -- two weeks ago -- and it was victorious against the New York Jets.  We'll take Miami to bounce back here at home, as it's been installed as a home dog this afternoon.  And home underdogs are 134-103, 57% ATS following an upset loss, if they're playing an opponent off a SU win.  Meanwhile, the Falcons are a wallet-busting 10-22 ATS when not favored by more than 3 points against a foe off an upset defeat.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in tonight's game between Denver and Cleveland.  These two teams were both upset last Sunday.  Denver had its worst defensive effort of the season, as it gave up 34 to Las Vegas in a 10-point loss.  And Cleveland's defense was even worse, as it was wrecked by Arizona, 37-14, in a 23-point upset home loss.  But off those upset losses, I expect both teams to play much better defense tonight.  Indeed, Denver is 14-3 UNDER its last 17 off an upset loss, while Cleveland is 23-13 UNDER its last 36 off an upset loss.  And matchups between two teams off upset losses, in which they each gave up 28+ points, have gone UNDER the total 77.4% over the past 33 seasons, including a perfect 5-0 UNDER since last season.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Tennessee returns home off back to back road games vs. the Jets and Jaguars, which they split with a loss at New York, and a 37-19 victory at Jacksonville last Sunday.  The Bills also won last week, as they upset the defending AFC champion, Kansas City Chiefs, 38-20, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  But off that huge upset win over the team that knocked it out of last year's playoffs, we will fade Buffalo on the road against Tennessee.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams off 18-point (or greater) upset wins have cashed just 35% on the road vs. foes off a win.  Even worse, teams off upset wins have cashed just 20% on Monday Night Football since 1980 as road favorites vs. non-division foes.  Meanwhile, home teams have gone 73-38-3 ATS on Monday Night Football, if they were off a road win, and were not laying more than 5 points.  Take the Titans as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys are on a 4-game win streak after winning 3 home games vs. Philadelphia, Carolina, and the New York Giants.  But from Week 3 forward, the Eagles are 1-3, the Panthers are 1-2, and the Giants are 1-2.  So, not exactly "Murderer's Row."  That's not to imply the Cowboys are playing poorly -- they're not.  But the fact that Dallas has rolled up 41, 36 and 44 points over those last three home games should be taken with a boulder of salt.  They'll now travel to Foxborough to take on a New England team which is giving up just 18.4 ppg (again, a far cry from teams like Philadelphia (25.33) and the Giants (27.8)).  We'll grab the points with New England, as teams (like Dallas) off back to back home wins, are 38% ATS in the regular season after scoring more than 30 points in back to back games.  And > .750 NFL teams playing away from home, without the better defense, have cashed just 37%.  Meanwhile, Bill Belichick's men are 14-0 SU and 12-1-1 ATS at home when not favored by 7+ points vs. an .800 (or better) opponent.  Finally, New England also falls into 363-266, 240-147 and 121-57 ATS systems of mine.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals are riding high with a 5-0 record, but have been installed as an underdog against the 3-2 SU/ATS Browns, who lost a heartbreaker to the Chargers, 47-42, last Sunday.  The Browns easily could also be 5-0, as their other loss was to the defending AFC champion Chiefs, 33-29, in Kansas City.  I look for the Browns to rebound big here, as teams off losses, in which they scored 37+ points, have gone 37-13 ATS vs. .300 (or better) foes, including a perfect 12-0 ATS if our 'play-on' team (here, Cleveland) owned an ATS record of .550 (or better).  That bodes well for the Browns here.  As does the fact that they're 5-0 ATS their last five when favored vs. the NFC.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Ravens were my preseason choice (at 16-1 odds) to win this year's Super Bowl, and they've won three of four nail-biters (along with one blowout vs. Denver) to move to 4-1 on the season.  Also 4-1 is Los Angeles, which has lost to just Dallas in its first five games.  Los Angeles has won and covered its last three, but road teams off back-to-back SU/ATS wins are a poor 69-102 ATS in the regular season vs. .800 (or better) teams.  Additionally, the Ravens are 30-16 ATS at home vs. winning teams when the Ravens were off an ATS loss, and not favored by 3+ points.  Take Baltimore.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  We played on Philly last week as a road dog at Carolina, and got the cash with an upset win.  They're now a home underdog vs. the defending Super Bowl champs, and we'll grab the points with Philly tonight.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs are a horrid 0-13 ATS following a home win, when favored on the road by 7 or less points vs. non-division foes, provided their opponent wasn't off back-to-back losses.  Even better, home underdogs of +1.5 (or more) points, off a SU road win, have gone 142-87 ATS vs. foes off a SU home win.  Take Philadelphia + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Buffalo.  The Bills will enter Arrowhead on quite a roll, as they've scored 35, 43 and 40 points in their last three games -- all blowout wins by more than 21 points.  But that's not necessarily a good thing, as road underdogs are a soft 24-42-2 ATS after 3 SU/ATS wins, in which they scored more than 95 point combined.  And road teams off three SU/ATS wins by 20+ points are a horrid 2-15-1 ATS if they weren't favored by more than 7 points in their current game.  It's been years since the Chiefs have been priced this inexpensive at home (with a healthy Patrick Mahomes), and we will take full advantage.  Indeed, Kansas City is 46-19 ATS at home if it wasn't off a SU/ATS loss, and it wasn't favored by 3 or more points.  Take the Chiefs to blow out Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over Arizona.  Last week, the Cardinals stunned the Los Angeles Rams, 37-20, as a road underdog at SoFi Stadium.  But off that upset win, we will fade the unbeaten Cardinals as a home favorite.  Indeed, the Cardinals are a wallet-breaking 7-20 ATS as a home favorite, including 0-7 ATS vs. a division rival.  And they're 8-28 ATS at home vs. a foe not off a point spread win, including 0-10 ATS vs. a foe off an upset loss!  Meanwhile, the 49ers are a reliable 37-12 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against a .500 (or better) foe.  Finally, the Cardinals fall into a negative 24-62 ATS system of mine which goes against certain home favorites off upset wins, while the 49ers fall into 363-264 and 132-69 ATS angles that play on certain teams with inferior scoring margins than their opponent.  Take San Francisco.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.