Vegas Experts

Big Al McMordie MLB Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
06-14-24	Rangers v. Mariners -145	Top	2-3	Win	100	17 h 25 m	Show
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the defending champions, and he's 1-7 in 12 starts this season (Texas is 2-10 in those games). Heaney will match up against Luis Castillo. Castillo's home ERA this season is a solid 2.95, with a 1.12 WHIP. And Seattle has won his last four home starts in a row. Both pitchers will be working on an extra day of rest. But that's not necessarily a good thing for Heaney, as the Rangers have lost his last 7 starts when he pitched with an extra day or two of rest. Also not very good are the Rangers' bullpen statistics on the road (6.73 ERA; 1.69 WHIP), especially compared to its very good numbers at home (2.79 ERA; 1.04 WHIP). And, given Heaney's average innings pitched is 4.8 on the road, Seattle should see a lot of the Rangers' bullpen tonight. Finally, the Mariners are 24-11 (+10.0 net games) at home this season (compared to 16-20, minus 4.8 net games, on the road). Take the Mariners. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
06-13-24	Braves +108 v. Orioles	Top	6-3	Win	108	9 h 50 m	Show
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Baltimore Orioles. Over the weekend, the Orioles swept a four-game series in Tampa for the first time in their history. They've followed up that success with two straight wins at home over a very good Atlanta Braves team, so they are assured of another series win as the third game is set to go this afternoon at the Yards. It's a good thing too, because this weekend they will welcome the best team in the National League (the Phillies). And then, after that series, they will travel to the Bronx to play three games against the best American League team -- the Yankees. But amid all this success in Baltimore are also some challenges as three of the O's starters have gone on the IL, with two of them -- John Means and Tyler Wells -- being lost for the season. So LHP Cole Irvin will once again fill in today and he'll be going against another surprising success story this season in RHP Reynaldo Lopez. Irvin has not had any success in his career starts vs. Atlanta, as his ERA in those games is 9.90. In contrast, Lopez's career ERA in his starts vs. Baltimore is 3.72. And in 11 starts this season, covering 63 1/3 innings, Lopez is 3-2 with a 1.85 ERA, with the Braves going 7-4 in those games. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
06-11-24	Rangers v. Dodgers -155	Top	2-15	Win	100	7 h 25 m	Show
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Texas Rangers. The big weekend series between the Dodgers and Yankees in the Bronx lived up to the hype for the most part with the Dodgers winning the first two games before the Yankees came back on Sunday night to take a 6-4 decision without the services of star OF Juan Soto (arm). Now the Dodgers go from one AL powerhouse to another as the defending World Series Champion Rangers come to Los Angeles for a three-game set. LHP James Paxton will go to the hill for his 12th start of the season. The 35-year-old southpaw will look to redeem himself after one of the worst starts of his career last time out against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. In that one, Paxton lasted just 1 2/3 innings, allowing seven runs (six earned) on six hits. He's back home tonight where he's done by far his best work this season, going 2-0 with a 2.78 ERA in four starts covering 22 2/3 innings (vs. 3-1 and 5.23 in seven road starts). The Dodgers are 6-2 in the last eight meetings with the Rangers. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
06-10-24	Blue Jays v. Brewers -107	Top	1-3	Win	100	16 h 0 m	Show
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Toronto Blue Jays. There's no question the Brewers' starting rotation is a bit of a mess right now. In fact, Milwaukee recently did something you don't see very often -- if at all -- when it used the same starter -- an opener named Jared Koenig -- in back-to-back games on June 3 and 4 against the Phillies. That didn't work too well (the Brewers lost both games). Colin Rea has been used twice as the long reliever when the Brewers have used an opener this season but now he is back in the rotation and will get his 11th start tonight at home against the Jays. The 33-year-old has been bright spot as a starter this season so it seems a bit odd that Milwaukee would want to use him in long relief. In his 10 starts, Rea is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and he has a 3.07 ERA at home this season (vs. 3.93 on the road). This will be the first meeting of these two teams this season. The Brewers are 12-3 in Rea's last 15 nighttime starts and they're 6-0 in his last six when he's had at least seven days between starts. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
06-08-24	Dodgers v. Yankees -118	Top	11-3	Loss	-118	16 h 15 m	Show
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Los Angeles won Game 1, 2-1, in 11 innings on Friday night. That loss snapped New York's eight-game win streak, but the Yankees still have the most wins (45) in baseball. We'll take New York to bounce back on Saturday night. Southpaw Nestor Cortes will get the start for the Yankees, and he's been exceptional at home this season with a 3-1 record and 1.12 ERA (compared to 0-3, 6.17 ERA on the road). And that dovetails with his results over the last 3 seasons, as the Yankees have gone 22-9 at home with Cortes, but have gone 12-13 in his 25 road starts. New York is a solid 344-233 (+30.9 net games) following a game where they scored 1 run or less. Take the Yankees. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
06-07-24	Red Sox v. White Sox -107	Top	2-7	Win	100	9 h 20 m	Show
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Boston Red Sox. The Southsiders have lost 14 straight games, and will turn to their best pitcher -- Garrett Crochet -- to stop that streak tonight. Crochet has a 3.49 ERA (2.50 at home), with a superb 0.93 WHIP. And he's given up 2 runs or less in each of his last seven starts, with a 1.35 ERA in those 7 outings (The White Sox are 4-3 in those games). Boston has gone just 6-11 (-6.8 net games) this season vs. lefty starters (compared to 26-20 (+6.8 net games) vs. righties). And the White Sox are 57-38 (+28.1 net games) after allowing more than 6 runs in three straight games. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
06-06-24	Mariners -140 v. A's	Top	3-0	Win	100	9 h 33 m	Show
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland A's. Bryan Woo is off to a great start this season. In 5 starts, he has a 1.30 ERA and a microscopic 0.57 WHIP. And Seattle is a perfect 5-0 in those starts. This will be Woo's second game against Oakland in 2024, and he shut out the A's over 4 1/3 innings back on May 10 (Seattle won, 8-1). In Woo's career, he's made 3 starts vs. the A's, and did not give up a run over the 15 1/3 innings he pitched. Seattle won all three of those games (by a combined score of 20-1). The A's are a poor 7-15 (minus 6.8 net games) as a home underdog this season (and 54-110 (minus 25.3 net games) the past 3 seasons, while Seattle is 52-28 (+9.6 net games) as a road favorite. Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
06-04-24	Royals v. Guardians -110	Top	5-8	Win	100	13 h 15 m	Show
At 6:40 pm, our selections is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. Who would've thought that a June series between the Guardians and the Royals would be featuring two teams that are on top in the division -- with both being more than 10 games over the .500 mark? Both of these teams have been led by their pitching and two of their best go the hill today in Seth Lugo of the Royals and Triston McKenzie of the Guardians. McKenzie got some major run support his last time out as Cleveland beat Colorado 13-7 last Tuesday. That marked the Guardians' seventh victory in the last eight starts for McKenzie, a tall, lanky RH who's had injury problems in the past, but who appears to be 100% now and flourishing with this young lineup behind him. In 11 career regular season games vs. the Royals -- nine starts -- McKenzie is 4-2 with a sparkling 2.70 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 56 strikeouts in 56 2/3 innings. Take Cleveland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
06-03-24	Brewers v. Phillies -1.5	Top	1-3	Win	100	9 h 33 m	Show
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies minus 1.5 runs over the Milwaukee Brewers. Zack Wheeler will toe the rubber for the Phils this evening, and his career ERA in 9 starts vs. Milwaukee is a stellar 2.68, with a WHIP of 1.07. In contrast, Bryse Wilson's career numbers vs. the Phillies are ugly (7.84 ERA in 3 starts with a 2.03 WHIP). Philly lost a rare game at home last night to St. Louis in extra innings, but it is still 24-9 (+11.4 net games) at Citizens Bank Ballpark this year. And Wheeler's home ERA this season is 1.77 with a 0.83 WHIP. Lay the 1.5 runs with Philly. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
06-02-24	Padres v. Royals -125	Top	3-4	Win	100	11 h 12 m	Show
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the San Diego Padres. After winning games on Friday and Saturday, the Padres go for the series sweep in Kansas City this afternoon. Cole Ragans was the Texas Rangers first round draft pick in 2016 and spent 1 1/2 seasons with the Big League club in a swing man sort of role. But when Ragans was traded to the Royals as part of the deal that sent reliever Aroldis Chapman to Texas, it was clear that his new team wanted him as a starter. After arriving in KC last August, the 26-year-old LHP put up impressive numbers as a full-time member of the rotation, going 5-2 with a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts covering 71 2/3 innings with 89 strikeouts. Ragans is out to show that the last half of 2023 was no fluke as he's following up that strong second half with an equally solid first half of 2024, including his first career complete game. He'll go for his fifth win of the season today in his first career start vs. San Diego. In 13 inter-league games (six starts) Ragans is 3-1 with a 3.40 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 45 innings. Take the Royals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
06-01-24	Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5	Top	1-4	Win	100	18 h 49 m	Show
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over Colorado. The Dodgers are 5.5 games ahead of the Padres in the race for the NL West division crown, while the Rockies are in last place, 13.5 games behind L.A. For the season, the Dodgers rank #4 in run differential, as they've outscored their foes by 79 runs this season. That bodes well for Los Angeles today, as Colorado is 1-18 on the road vs. foes that have a run differential of at least 1 run per game. And the Rockies are 8-52 as an underdog of +200 (or higher). Even better: the Rockies' Cal Quantrill has been horrible in his career starts vs. Los Angeles, with an 0-3 record, a 9.42 ERA, and 1.95 WHIP. But rather than lay a big price greater than -300, we're going to lay 1.5 runs instead. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
05-29-24	Red Sox v. Orioles -175	Top	1-6	Win	100	16 h 14 m	Show
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox beat the O's and Grayson Rodriguez last night to even this series at one game apiece. Baltimore will turn to its newly-acquired ace, RH Corbin Burnes, to try to send the Red Sox home with a series loss. Burnes was acquired by way of a trade with the Brewers in the off-season and so far the former NL Cy Young has been as good as advertised -- if not better. In 11 starts covering just under 66 innings, the 29-year-old is 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 66 strikeouts and 17 walks. Burnes has faced the Sox twice before in his career and he is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 12 innings against them coming into tonight. In eight career starts here at his new home ballpark, Burnes is 2-1 with a 1.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 52 strikeouts and 10 walks in just under 48 innings. The Sox will go with RH Kutter Crawford who has been an enigma this season. Despite a 2.89 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, Boston is just 3-8 in Crawford's 11 starts. Take the O's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
05-28-24	Dodgers -1.5 v. Mets	Top	5-2	Win	100	15 h 7 m	Show
At 4:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over the New York Mets. The Dodgers' march to their eighth World Championship hit a bit of a speed bump over the weekend. L.A. went into Cincinnati for what should have been a relatively easy three-game series against the Reds but instead it was Cincy that came away with a sweep. The Dodgers will try to re-group on Tuesday in Queens as they begin a three game series against the 22-30 Mets. Tyler Glasnow will get the start in Game 1. And Glasnow has a 3-0 record, and a 0.90 ERA in three daytime starts this season, including a 10-0 shutout win over these Mets back on April 21. Additionally, Los Angeles is 18-6 following 2 games where they had 0 home runs. Take the Dodgers minus 1.5 runs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie