At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars + the points over Boise State.  BYU comes into this game with an 0-5 ATS record, and that's created value for us.  We'll grab the points, as Boise's an awful 3-12 ATS as a favorite.  And the Broncos also fall into a negative 47-88 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road favorites when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Finally, home dogs off 4 straight ATS losses, that have an average pointspread differential of -14 ppg (or worse), are an awesome 72% ATS the past 33 years vs. .500 (or worse) opponents.  Take BYU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Tampa Bay.  Last week, the Pats lost at home to the Carolina Panthers.  But New England is the league's best franchise at bouncing back off losses.  Indeed, Bill Belichick's crew is 43-7 SU and 37-13 ATS since Dec. 29, 2002 following a defeat (and also fall into 30-0, 35-1 and 29-1 ATS variations of this general angle).  That's one reason to back Tom Brady & Co. on this Thursday.  Another is that defending Super Bowl champs are 19-5 ATS on the road off a loss vs. .615 (or better) foes off a win.  Take New England to blow out the Buccaneers.  NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Washington.  The Chiefs opened this season with a dominant 42-27 win over the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots, and haven't looked back since.  They're now 3-0 SU and ATS following a win at the Chargers last Sunday.  Some might look for KC to have a letdown, but not me.  Indeed, since 1980, 3-0 NFL teams are 38-5 SU and 31-12 ATS at home vs. non-division foes, including 22-3 ATS if they happen to not be favored by 7+ points, and also 8-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take the Chiefs.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Denver.  The Raiders were blown out by 17 points on the road at Washington last Sunday night.  And they went into that game as a 3.5-point favorite.  Interestingly, Denver also lost by double-digits on the road as a 3.5-point favorite.  I’ll grab the points with Derek Carr & Co., as AFC West division teams are 120-78 ATS as road underdogs in divisional games off a straight-up loss, including 63-32 ATS if their opponent is also off a loss.  And .666 (or better) teams have cashed 61% as road underdogs since 1980 off a loss by 14 or more points.  Finally, over the past 15 years, the Broncos are a wallet-busting 12-29 ATS as home favorites vs. foe off a loss, including 1-10 ATS if the Broncos are also off a loss.  Take Oakland.  NFL Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Jacksonville.  Last week, the Jaguars played the best game of any team over the past three years, when they won by 37 points (44-7), as a 3 point underdog, and thus covered by 40 points.  Unfortunately for the Jaguars, teams that cover the spread by 40+ points have sustained their ATS success in their next game just 33% of the time since 1989 (and just 21% if they weren't favored by 3+ points in their previous game).  That doesn't bode well for the Jaguars on Sunday.  And neither does the fact that the Jags are just 26.6% since 1999 as road favorites off an upset win.  Take the Jets.  NFL Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Last week, the Bills stunned Denver, 26-16, as a 3-point underdog.  But off that upset win, we'll fade the Bills on Sunday, as they fall into a wallet-busting 0-18 ATS system.  What we want to do is play against any winning team, as a dog of more than 7 points, off a home win by more than 8 points, provided they weren't favored by 2+ points in that previous game.  Take Atlanta. NFL Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Oregon.  We played against Oregon last week, and took the 15 points with Arizona State, which upset the Ducks, in Tempe, 37-35.  As i discussed last week, Oregon's schedule was rather weak to begin the season, so I wasn't very impressed with its 3-0 start.  Of course, now, the Ducks are 3-1, and do return home, but I don't look for them to bounce back, as they fall into a nasty 0-23 ATS system, which plays against certain teams, favored by 7+ points in conference games, off a loss as a 14-point (or greater) favorite.  Moreover, Oregon's just 3-10 ATS its last 13 off an upset loss as a road favorite, while California is 10-1 ATS vs. Conference foes off an upset loss, when Cal is priced from +6 to +16.  Take California.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Huskies pulled off a huge upset as a double-digit dog in their last game, at Nebraska.  But off that upset win, I look for a letdown at SDSU, as teams are 30% ATS since 1980 off an upset win as a double-digit dog, if they're now on the road against a winning, non-conference foe, which is also off a win.  Take San Diego State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack + the points over Fresno State.  The Bulldogs come into this game off back to back blowout losses (by 31 and 32 points), and have now been installed as a big favorite vs. Nevada.  But Fresno has been awful when laying 7+ points, as it's covered just 16 of 50, including 1-10 ATS off back to back losses.  Additionally, Fresno falls into negative 43-107 and 86-164 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off losses.  Take Nevada.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies + the points over Clemson.  The Tigers' defense of their National Championship has gotten off to a strong start.  Clemson is 4-0 straight-up, and 3-1 ATS, including SU/ATS wins over Auburn and Louisville.  But I expect its win streak to be halted by the Hokies, as Va Tech is also 4-0, and has pitched shutouts in two of its four games.  These two teams last met in the ACC Championship game last season, when Clemson vanquished Va Tech, 42-35.  Unfortunately for the Tigers, defending National Champs are a soft 26-52 ATS away from home when off back-to-back wins, and not favored by 14+ points.   And home teams have cashed 79% when playing with revenge from a post-season defeat, if priced from -3.5 to +10 points.  Finally, Virginia Tech is a solid 70-38 ATS as home dogs of more than a point, including 29-11 ATS when playing with revenge.  Take Virginia Tech.  NCAA Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles minus the points over North Texas.  These two teams have traded home wins (and covers) the past two seasons, with North Texas pulling the upset last season in Denton.  This season, both teams are off to decent starts.  Southern Miss has covered each of its three games this season (winning straight-up twice), including a 28-17 win two weeks ago at Louisiana Monroe (Southern Miss had last week off).  North Texas is 2-2 (after going 5-8 last season), and won last week, at home, vs. UAB, but gave up 43 points in the process.  And it has given up 54, 31 and 43 points in its three games this season vs. FBS (Division 1) schools.  That doesn't bode well, here, vs. Southern Miss, as the Golden Eagles have cashed 86% since 1980 when playing with rest, if they owned a defense at least 11 ppg better than their foe.  And North Texas is also 0-8 ATS when playing a rested opponent, if the Mean Green are priced from +4.5 to +11.5 points.  Finally, Conference USA home teams are 27-11 ATS when rested, and playing with revenge vs. an unrested conference foe (including 21-5 ATS vs. .400 or better foes).  Take Southern Miss.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan State.  Both the Hawkeyes and Spartans come into Saturday's game off losses.  But Iowa played great in its defeat, with a narrow 2-point loss vs. Penn State.  In contrast, Michigan St was blown out, 38-18, by Notre Dame.  We'll take the points with Iowa, as it falls into 217-109 and 167-89 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams, in conference games, off a loss.  Moreover, this is a series which has been dominated by the Hawkeyes.  Since 1988, Iowa is 15-5-1 ATS vs. Michigan State, including 10-0-1 ATS when priced from +3 to +21 points!  And Michigan State is a woeful 24-51 ATS off a loss, if its W/L percentage was .500 or better.  Take Iowa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Stanford Cardinal minus the points over Arizona State.  Last week, we played on the Sun Devils as a 14.5-point underdog, and were rewarded with an outright win over Oregon.  That leveled ASU's record at 2-2, and they'll now travel to Palo Alto to take on Stanford, which is also 2-2 following its 58-34 blowout of UCLA.  We'll play against Arizona State, as it is a poor 0-8 ATS as road underdogs off an upset win vs. foes not off an upset win.  Meanwhile, Stanford is a powerful 50-20 ATS in the regular season vs. conference foes, if it's off a win by 13+ points, and also covered the spread in that previous game.  Take Stanford.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Kansas State.  Last week, the Bears played great, and almost upset the Oklahoma Sooners, as a 28-point underdog.  They lost by just eight points, 49-41, but easily covered the spread by 20 points.  Off that impressive game, I look for Baylor to once again get the cash as a double-digit underdog, as it is 14-3 ATS its last 17 conference games when getting 11+ points.  And it's also an awesome 18-0 ATS since 2011 when coming off a double-digit cover in its previous game, provided it's not favored by 32+ points.  Take the points with Baylor.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over New Mexico State.  The Aggies blew out Texas El Paso last week, 41-14, as a 17-point favorite.  And that win extended New Mexico State's ATS run to 4-0 this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the double-digits with New Mexico State, especially since Arkansas has yet to cover the pointspread this season.  But consider that, since 1980, College Football underdogs of +14 or more points are an awful 37-62 ATS away from home off 4+ ATS wins in a row!  And New Mexico State's a poor 5-12 ATS on the road off back to back covers.  Take the Razorbacks.  NCAA High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Wisconsin.  Northwestern bounced back off its upset loss at Duke in Week 2 to blow out Bowling Green, 49-7, in its third game.  The Wildcats are now 2-1 SU, and will take on undefeated (3-0) Wisconsin, in Madison, on Saturday.  The Wildcats also had last weekend off, and fall into a 93-34 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested underdogs of +7 or more points.  Additionally, Big 10 underdogs of 7+ points, with a winning record, have cashed 76.1% since 1980 when playing with rest vs. conference foes off back to back wins.  Take Northwestern.  Big 10 Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Illinois, as Illinois falls into several negative systems of mine, with records of 87-169, 37-107, and 75-176 ATS since 1980.  Nebraska won its Big 10 opener last week vs. Rutgers, but failed to cover the 11-point spread, as it won by just 10, 27-17.  Illinois, meanwhile, plays its conference opener tonight.  So far this season, the Illini have not made many friends in Vegas, as they come into this game with a 1-2 ATS record, which is par for the course, as they have been a consistent money-burner over the years.  Since 2002, Illinois is 65-96 ATS, including 33-64 when the pointspread was less than 11 points.  Nebraska, on the other hand, has been solid as a road team vs. Big 10 Conference foes, including 8-2 ATS vs. foes off a loss.  And the 'Huskers are also 42-24 ATS on the road when favored and not off a SU/ATS win.  Take Nebraska.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over Texas.  Iowa State comes into this game on a 3-game ATS win streak following its blowout victory at Akron (41-14) on Sept. 16.  Texas also played 12 days ago, and suffered a tough 3-point loss at Southern Cal, 27-24.  That defeat has placed Texas into 3 negative systems of mine, with records of 59-124, 79-142 and 217-336.  Meanwhile, the fact that Iowa State is playing with a week of rest at home, and also with revenge, has triggered several very good systems on the Cyclones with records of 39-10, 50-22, 112-73, 107-56 and 43-23.  Finally, the Cyclones have scored more than 40 points in each of their first three games this season.  And NCAA home underdogs of 5+ points have cashed a super 91% since 1980 vs. conference foes if our home dog scored 40+ points in its three previous games.  Take Iowa State.  NCAA High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Tennessee.  The Seahawks have gotten off to a slow start this season.  They lost, 17-9, at Green Bay in Week 1.  And then only scored 12 points vs. a poor San Francisco team last week, but eked out a 12-9 victory.  But we've seen this before with Pete Carroll's squad.  Indeed, just last season, Seattle scored just 15 points over its first two games.  And the previous year, it actually LOST its first two games outright, but still managed to go 10-6 that season.  So, it's not yet time to panic.  And, for technical support, consider that Seattle is an awesome 54-25-2 ATS after failing to score 20+ points in its two previous games, including a perfect 11-0 ATS under coach Carroll!  Additionally, Tennessee falls into negative 23-59 and 48-95 ATS systems of mine.  Take Seattle.  Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over New England.  These two teams met in the Playoffs last season, and the Patriots came away with a 34-16 victory.  And they also whitewashed Houston, 27-0, in the regular season last year.  But we'll grab the points with the Texans, as they fall into an 18-0 ATS Playoff revenge system of mine.  Moreover, New England's defense has greatly fallen off from last year's numbers.  In 2016, it gave up just 15.6 ppg in the regular season.  But through its first two games this season, New England is surrendering 31 ppg.  That certainly augurs poorly for them.  And with respect to this game, it's worth noting that favorites of -9 or more points are a soft 49-80 ATS since 1980 when they give up more than 24 ppg.  Take Houston.  Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Atlanta.  The Falcons suffered a brutal loss in last year's Super Bowl, as they collapsed after being up by 25 points over New England.  And, generally speaking, the teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous season have a somewhat difficult time the next year.  So far, Atlanta hasn't shown any ill effects, as it's 2-0 straight-up and 1-1 ATS.  But I expect it to stumble on Sunday, vs. the undefeated Lions.  Indeed, teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous year are a poor 4-27-2 ATS as non-division road favorites priced from PK to -4, including 1-12 ATS if their win percentage was .700 (or better).  Even better:  home underdogs of +3 or more points, with a winning record, off a SU/ATS road win are 64% ATS since 1980 vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take Detroit.  NFL Roadkill. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon on Sunday, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Connecticut.  The hurricane season wrecked havoc on the College Football schedule, so we'll have a rare Sunday college football game this weekend.  Interestingly, both teams have yet to cover the pointspread this season.  East Carolina is 0-3 SU/ATS, while Connecticut is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS.  We'll grab the points with East Carolina, as UConn falls into a negative 44-124 ATS system of mine, which fades certain home favorites vs. teams with a losing ATS record.  Additionally, East Carolina has excelled as road underdogs of less than 8 points, as it's 28-15 ATS in this role, including 11-0 ATS if it lost its previous game by 9+ points.  Finally, Connecticut is a dreadful 0-7-1 ATS at home when PK/Favored since September 2012.  Take the Pirates.  High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils + the points over Oregon.  Oregon went 3-0 in its non-conference schedule, and now opens Pac-12 Conference play vs. Arizona State.  It's true the Sun Devils are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS this season.  But Arizona State has played a much more difficult schedule than Oregon, as the Sun Devils' two losses were to San Diego State and Texas Tech, both of which are unbeaten on the season.  We'll grab the double-digits with Arizona State, as ASU falls into an 89-38 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home dogs off 3 ATS losses.  Also, the Sun Devils are a super 25-8-1 ATS at home vs. foes that covered by 10+ points in their previous game, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS if ASA wasn't favored by 3+ points.  Take the Sun Devils.  NCAA High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Mississippi State Bulldogs.  Last week, we played on Mississippi State, and got the $$$ when it upset LSU, 37-7, as an 8-point underdog.  Unfortunately for Mississippi State, it's cashed just 25% on the road over the past 25 years off an upset win (including 0-5 ATS its last 5).  And NCAA teams are a woeful 0-13 ATS since 2005 off an upset win by more than 28 points, if they were a dog of more than 3 in that upset win, and they're now matched up against a conference foe off back to back wins.  Take Georgia.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Syracuse.  LSU was upset by Mississippi State, 37-7, as an 8.5-point favorite last week, while Syracuse won at home, 41-17, over Central Michigan.  But off their defeat -- where they failed to cover by 38.5 point -- I look for the LSU Tigers to rebound in a big way on Saturday evening.  Indeed, teams off an upset loss are an awesome 51-20 ATS in the regular season if they failed to cover the spread by 35 or more points in their previous game, and their opponent is off a home win.  The Tigers are also a super 13-4 ATS in non-conference games off a pointspread defeat by 14+ points, including 9-1 ATS at home.  Take LSU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons + the points over San Diego State.  The Aztecs pulled a huge upset last week when they won at home, 20-17, as an 8-point underdog vs. Stanford.  That was also San Diego State's 2nd straight upset win, as they knocked off Arizona State on the road, 30-20, as a 3-point underdog the previous week.  Unfortunately for the Aztecs, road favorites tend to have a difficult time following an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) home dog, as they've covered just 36% since 1980.  Even worse:  Air Force is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS vs. conference foes off upset wins, while San Diego State is an awful 13-27 ATS off an upset win.  Take the Falcons + the points.  NCAA Underdog of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks + the points over the Louisiana Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns.  The Warhawks lost last year to their rival, 30-3, so they'll be looking for some payback on Saturday.  And, like many heated rivalries, the revenge-minded team in this series has gone 12-7 ATS, including 10-2 ATS as an underdog.  Even better:  the road team in this series is a perfect 15-0 ATS when not laying more than 4 points!  Finally, Monroe checks into this game off back to back losses.  But it's a sensational 20-5 ATS on the Conference road when it's lost its previous two games.  Take Monroe + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over TCU.  The Cowboys blew out Pittsburgh last week in the Steel City, 59-21.  And the game wasn't even that close, as Okie State was up 49-7 late in the 2nd quarter before calling off the dogs.  The Cowboys have now scored 59, 44, and 59 in their first three games this season.  They've also won by margins of 35, 37, and 38 points.  Not surprisingly, the Cowboys are a perfect 3-0 ATS.  They'll now take on a fellow Top 25 foe in Big 12 Conference rival TCU.  The Horned Frogs have lost the last two meetings to the Cowboys, and four of the five meetings since TCU joined the Conference in 2012.  Based on their season statistics-to-date, the Cowboys fall into several of my best systems, with records of 111-43, 84-26 and 94-22 ATS.  Additionally, Oklahoma State has been terrific following games in which it scored 50+ points, as it's 35-8 ATS since 1987, including 14-1 ATS if the Cowboys are in off back to back SU/ATS wins.  The Cowboys are also 44-25 ATS when priced from -10.5 to -24 points.  Finally, TCU is 4-10 ATS its last 14 games, while Big 12 Conference teams are a poor 48-78 vs. foes off a win that average 44+ points per game on offense.  Take Oklahoma State.  Big 12 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks plus the points over Central Michigan.  The Red Hawks lost their third straight game ATS last week when they were upset, 21-17, by Cincinnati.  But unlike their first three games (where they were favored), the Red Hawks are an underdog at CMU this Saturday.  And Miami's 10-2 ATS their last 12 as an underdog.  Even better:  Mid-American Conference road underdogs are 60-34 ATS on a 3-game ATS losing streak.  Take Miami.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over Central Florida.  Both of these teams were off last week (and Central Florida actually hasn't played since August 31, due to the hurricanes).  Maryland comes in off impressive wins over Texas (51-41) and Towson (63-17), while the Knights triumphed in their initial game, 61-17, vs. Florida International.  Last season, these two teams met in Orlando, and the Terps won, 30-24.  I look for them to win again, as home favorites of -10 points or less (or PK) have covered 69.5% in the regular season since 1984 vs. non-conference foes. Additionally, Maryland is 28-13-1 ATS off back to back wins, when favored by more than 3 points.  And they also fall into 300-205, 84-26 and 187-89 ATS systems of mine.  Lay it.  NCAA Non-Conference Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michgian Eagles minus the points over Ohio.  The Eagles had last week off following their upset win at Rutgers in Week 2.  And they're a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS on the season.  The Eagles have largely relied on their defense, which is giving up just 10 ppg on the season (Ohio, on the other hand, is giving up 24.67 ppg).  We'll lay the points with Eastern Michigan, as home teams that give up 10.5 or less points per game, are 67% ATS since 1990 at Game 3 forward, if they're undefeated both SU and ATS, and not laying 4+ points.  Take Eastern Michigan.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers to go 'over' the total, as it falls into 57-27 and 106-69 Totals Systems of mine.  The Over/Under line on this game opened at 42, but has dropped considerably since then as a majority of bettors seem to be looking for a low-scoring contest.  It's true that both defenses have played well this season (SF is giving up just 17.5 ppg, while the Rams are allowing 18 ppg).  But I look for a relatively high-scoring game on Thursday, as NFL games have gone 'over' the total 314-231 (57.6) if the defenses of both teams gave up, on average, less than 18.5 ppg, and the over/under line was less than 40 points.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants minus the points over the Detroit Lions.  Last week, the Giants scored just three points in a 19-3 loss at Dallas, while Detrolt put up 35 points in an upset win vs. Arizona.  But I look for the Giants to bounce back at home, tonight, on Monday.  Indeed, losing teams off a straight-up loss, and an ATS defeat by 8+ points, have covered 68% when favored (or PK) vs. winning foes off a straight-up win.  Moreover, the Giants have cashed 67% as home favorites on Monday Night Football the past 34 seasons, while the Lions are an awful 27% the past 23 years on the road off an upset win, including 0-10 ATS if they covered the spread by more than 11 points in their previous game.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Baltimore.  Last week, the Ravens stunned the Bengals, 20-0.  Though that victory was no doubt impressive, the fact that the Houston Texans also embarrassed the Bengals at home, with a 13-9 victory this past Thursday, combined with the firing of Cincy's offensive coordinator, Ken Zampese on Friday, leads me to believe that Baltimore's victory was primarily a result of Cincy's internal problems.  Cleveland, meanwhile, lost by 3 points to the Steelers in Week 1, but covered the point spread.  And I look for the Browns to make it two straight covers in a row today.  It's true that the Ravens won and covered both meetings last season.  Unfortunately, home favorites off an upset division win have covered just 3 of 25 vs. revenge-minded division rivals not off an upset division win.  Take Cleveland.  NFL Division Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over New Mexico State, as the Trojans fall into 91-23, 165-92, 58-7 and 83-45 ATS Systems of mine.  Both Troy St. and New Mexico St. are 1-1 this season after posting wins last last week.  The Trojans blew out Alabama St, 34-7, at home, while the Aggies went on the road to upset their cross-state rival, New Mexico, 30-28.  Unfortunately for the Aggies, Sun Belt teams are 0-9 ATS in home conference games off an upset win, if they're getting more than 3 points vs. foes also off a win.  Additionally, the Aggies have been destroyed each of the last three years by Troy, and have lost by an average of 36 ppg.  Take the Trojans.  Conf. Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks minus the points over Cincinnati.  To say that Miami will be out for revenge tonight is a massive understatement.  That's because the Red Hawks have lost the last 11 meetings to the Bearcats.  But they were underdogs in each of those 11 games.  Indeed, the last time they were actually favored vs. Cincy was in 2005, and they blew them out, 44-16.  They're favored again this year, and I love Miami to register another blowout, as it falls into a 60-28 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, it's worth noting the Bearcats are a horrid 28-48-2 ATS since 1984 away from home when installed as an underdog vs. non-conference foes, while Miami's 6-0 ATS its last 6 when playing with revenge vs. non-conference foes.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Clemson.  The Cardinals and Tigers each recorded big wins last week.  Louisville outlasted North Carolina, 47-35, while Clemson defeated Auburn, 14-6.  Last year, the Tigers beat the Cardinals, 42-36, en route to a 14-0 Championship season.  And the Tigers are off to a 2-0 SU/ATS start this season.  But that sets up Clemson in a nasty situation on Saturday afternoon.  Since 1981, defending National Champs are a woeful 0-9 ATS away from home, if they're off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, unrested, and not favored by 7+ points.  That doesn't bode well for Clemson vs. Louisville.  And neither does the fact that it hasn't given up 7+ points in either of its first two games.  Indeed, since 1982, teams off back-to-back games where they didn't give up 7+ points, have covered just 9 of 48 road games vs. foes off a SU/ATS win by more than 7 points.  Take Louisville.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats minus the points over Bowling Green.  The Falcons and Wildcats are both 0-2 ATS on the season following upset losses by each team last week.  Northwestern was drilled 41-17, by Duke, while Bowling Green lost, 35-27, to South Dakota.  We'll lay the points with Northwestern, as favorites of -21+ points, off 21-point (or greater) upset losses, have covered over 65% of the time since 1983.  Take Northwestern.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Tulsa, as Tulsa falls into a negative 46-102 ATS system of mine which plays against teams with poor defenses.  And the Golden Hurricane's defense has been a sieve so far this season, as it's given up over 50 ppg.  Unfortunately for Tulsa, teams off wins, that give up more than 43.3 ppg (at Game 3 forward), have covered just 31% since 1980 if they won their previous game.  Even worse:  Toledo's been one of the best home teams (ATS) in College Football over the years, as it's gone 53-35 ATS its last 88, including 14-2 ATS vs. non-winning teams off a straight-up win.  Finally, Toledo has cashed 73.6% vs. non-conference foes when priced as a favorite of 23 or less points.  Take Toledo.  NCAA Roadkill Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over LSU.  Mississippi State is averaging 53 ppg after winning (and covering) their first two games by 49-0 and 57-21 counts.   Off those two big wins, we'll grab the points with Miss State, as teams off back to back SU/ATS wins have cashed 66% since 1980 if they average 45+ ppg, are matched up against an opponent off a SU win, and aren't favored by more than 3 points.  Take Mississippi State.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over Western Kentucky.  These two teams met in the Conference USA Championship game last season, and the Hilltoppers downed La Tech, 58-44.  But I look for the Bulldogs to get a measure of revenge on Saturday, as teams playing with revenge from a post-season defeat are 27-11 ATS when priced from -3.5 to +7.5 points.  Moreover, the Bulldogs were blown out at home last week, 57-21, by Mississippi State, while the Hilltoppers lost, 20-7, to Illinois.  But La Tech is a super 10-0 ATS off a home loss, if they're playing an opponent also off a defeat.  Take Louisiana Tech.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers minus the points over Middle Tennessee State, as Minnesota falls into a 112-35 ATS System of mine.  The Gophers are off to a 2-0 start this season, under 1st year coach PJ Fleck, following their blowout, upset win at Oregon State last week, 48-14 (as a 2.5-point underdog).  And this is the first time in over 60 years that a Gophers squad has started 2-0 under a new head coach.  Minnesota has dominated all facets of the game, as they outgained the Beavers last week, 411 yards to 225, and Buffalo, 408-262 the week before that.  Now, Minnesota returns home for the last game on its non-conference slate.  And the Gophers have excelled at home vs. non-conference foes over the years, and especially when matched up against non-winning foes.  In that situation, Minnesota's 28-7 SU and 24-11 ATS.  In the Blue Raiders' last game, 3rd year-QB Brent Stockstill (son of Middle Tennessee head coach Rick Stockstill) sustained an injury to his left (throwing) shoulder, but remained in the contest through its conclusion.  He underwent an MRI earlier this week, but the results have not yet been made public.  I do expect him to play, but don't necessarily expect him to be at full strength, so that's a negative for Middle Tenn.  Moreover, even with Stockstill in the lineup, the Blue Raiders' offense has underwhelmed this season.  Middle Tennessee is averaging just 18 ppg, on just 289 yards of offense.  In contrast, Minnesota is averaging 32.5 ppg, on 409.5 yards per game.   It also doesn't hurt that coach Fleck has experience vs. this Stockstill-led Middle Tennessee squad, as his former team (Western Michigan) defeated Middle Tenn., 45-31, two seasons ago in the Bahamas Bowl.  Finally, Conference USA teams are poor 8-41 SU and 18-31 ATS in the regular season vs. Big 10 Conference foes.  Lay the points with Minnesota.  HIGH ROLLER WINNER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over UCLA.  The Bruins are 2-0 on the season, after crushing Hawaii, 56-23.  That was UCLA's 2nd straight home game.  The Bruins will take to the road for the first time this season, and they'll have the disadvantage of facing a well-rested Tigers squad, which was off last week after routing Louisiana-Monroe, 37-29, in their first game.  I look for the Tigers to register an upset, as UCLA's a wallet-busting 14-34-1 ATS away from home off back to back wins, including 0-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  And it's 0-9 ATS its last 9 after scoring more than 35 points in a SU/ATS Win the previous week.  Additionally, the Tigers fall into a 17-0 ATS system of mine, based on their performance in their first game.  Take Memphis + the points.  NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Boise State, as UNM falls into 195-134, 103-37 and 124-45 ATS Systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 195-134 ATS angle.  That plays on road underdogs, priced from +3.5 to +17.5 points in conference games, off upset home losses, that have a win percentage of .333 (or better).  Last week, New Mexico fell to 1-1 on the season when it lost at home, 30-28, to New Mexico State, as a 7.5-point favorite.  But I love the Lobos to bounce back tonight, as they're 35-17-2 ATS off a home loss, including 10-1 ATS if they were upset in that previous home defeat.  Even better:  Boise's an awful 5-24 ATS its last 29 at home when laying 11+ points.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over New York.  The Cowboys received welcome news when they learned that RB Ezekiel Elliott will be available for this key divisional contest vs. the Giants.  And that was a key factor for me to pull the trigger on Dallas in this opener.  It's true that the Giants upset the Cowboys in both meetings last season, to hand Dallas two of its three regular season losses.  And it's also true that the Giants have won three straight in this series, overall.  But NFC East division teams playing with revenge from 3+ losses to division rivals have gone 105-84-3 ATS since 1981, including 59-45-1 ATS at home.  That bodes well for Jason Garrett's men on Sunday night.  Even better:  teams that won more than 10 games the previous season, and playing with revenge, have cashed 71% at home in Week 1 over the past 30 seasons, including 88% vs. division foes.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Indianapolis.  It may seem strange that the Rams -- a team wich won just four games last season -- has been installed as a big favorite.  But the Colts will be missing several key offensive players in this season opener.  Chief among them, of course, is QB Andrew Luck.  But Chester Rogers, Erik Swoope, Ryan Kelly and Ian Silberman are also injured.  Frankly, I believe the Rams should be favored by even more points than they are.  So, we'll lay the points with Los Angeles, as they also fall into my very best opening week angle, which is 34-12 ATS its last 46.  Take the Rams.

Our selection is on Tennessee. (Analysis to follow.)

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Baltimore.  The Bengals suffered through a miserable 6-9-1 season in 2016, after winning the AFC North division in 2015.  But I love the Bengals to bounce back this season.  And they should get the 2017 campaign off on the right foot, as they've won five straight home meetings vs. Baltimore, while the home team in this series is 17-6 SU and 14-8-1 ATS the last 23 meetings.  Even better:  the Bengals are 23-12-2 ATS as favorites of -3+ points in the regular season, and they also fall into an opening week angle of mine which is 40-22 ATS since 1980.  Take Cincinnati.

Our selection is on Arizona St.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over South Carolina.  Last year, the Missouri Tigers suffered through a 4-8 season -- their first year under coach Barry Odom.  But Mizzou got Odom's sophomore campaign off on the right foot, as it blew out Missouri State, 72-43, last week.  In that game, Drew Lock compiled record numbers for a Missouri QB, as he threw for 521 yards and seven touchdowns, besting the previous marks of 480 yards and five TDs.  Now, Missouri will welcome fellow SEC foe South Carolina to Columbia, and the Tigers have been installed as a small favorite.  Like  Missouri, the Gamecocks won their opener, in upset fashion over the NC State Wolfpack.  Unfortunately for South Carolina, since 1980, single-digit road underdogs are an awful 23-39 ATS vs. conference foes that scored 60+ in their previous game, including 0-7 ATS if our road dog was off an upset win.  That doesn't bode well for South Carolina this Saturday evening.  And neither does the fact that South Carolina is an awful 4-9 ATS off an upset win, including 0-5 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win.  Finally, SEC Conference teams are a poor 21.4% ATS since 1980 off an upset win over a non-conference foe, if they're matched up against a rival SEC Conference foe playing with revenge.  With Missouri indeed playing with revenge from a 10-point loss to the Gamecocks last season, we'll lay the points with the Tigers.  Take Missouri.  NCAA Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Our selection is on SMU.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 6 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack minus the points over Marshall.  NC State was stunned last week when it was upset, 35-28, as a 7.5-point favorite by South Carolina, while Marshall pulled an upset of its own against Miami-Ohio.  The good news for NC State is that it generally rebounds at home off losses, as it's 48-34 ATS, including 18-6 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  More good news:  since 1997, College Football teams off season-opening upset losses have cashed 83% vs. foes off season-opening upset wins!  Last year, for example, Mississippi State rebounded off its Week 1 loss to South Alabama (as a 27.5-point favorite) to blow out South Carolina, which had upset Vanderbilt to open its season the week before.  Finally, since 1996, Conference USA road underdogs off a SU/ATS win have cashed just 30.7% vs. non-conference foes.  I look for the Wolfpack to bounce back BIG on this Saturday.  Take North Carolina State.  NCAA Football Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Army Black Knights minus the points over Buffalo.  Last year, Army went into Buffalo, and was upset, 23-20, as a 13.5-point favorite.  I look for the Black Knights to avenge that defeat, as they fall into 153-53 and 295-201 ATS systems of mine.  Additionally, since 1980, .500 (or better) teams that lost the previous meeting on the road as a 10-point (or greater favorite), have cashed 80% vs. non-conference foes off a loss.  Take Army.  High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Our selection is on Duke.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 7:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Texas A&M.  The Aggies have long been a much better pointspread team at home than away from College Station.  And, perhaps, their worst pointspread role is as an underdog away from home when they're not off back to back losses.  Since November 1999, they're a horrid 8-37 ATS, including 0-17 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +8 points.  Yikes!  That doesn't bode well for A&M on Sunday.  And neither does the fact that they defeated the Bruins in College Station last season, 31-24.  The Bruins are a solid 57% ATS when playing with revenge and favored by 4+ points.  And they're an awesome 30-10 ATS at home vs. non-conference foes over the past 37 seasons when not laying 14+ points (and 9-1 ATS their last 10).  Take UCLA.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders + the points over Vanderbilt.  It's hard to have confidence in a Vandy squad installed as a road favorite in its season opener, given that the Commies have lost five straight season openers (by an average of 8.6 ppg) -- and they were favored in two of those five games.  Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has won its last four openers, by an average of 46.5 ppg.  The Blue Raiders certainly hope that the "3rd time will be the charm" on Saturday.  And that's because they've lost the past two seasons to the Commodores.  Last year, the game was played in Nashville, and Vandy won 47-24, as a 3-point favorite.  But that score was somewhat misleading, as the Blue Raiders, behind the arm of Brent Stockstill (the coach's son), actually out-yarded Vanderbilt, 495 to 344.  But they lost the turnover battle, and also killed themselves with penalties.  I love Middle Tennessee to avenge that loss and upset the Commodores on Saturday, as they fall into 38-18 and 80-43 ATS systems of mine.  Take Middle Tennessee St.  NCAA Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Southern Mississippi.  Both of these teams went 7-6 last season.  But the Wildcats will be the much better team this season, as they're returning 17 starters, while Southern Miss only returns 12.  Kentucky has been installed as a double-digit road favorite in this season opener for both teams.  And that doesn't bode well for the Golden Eagles, as double-digit home dogs are an awful 61-84, 42% ATS, in season openers, including 36% ATS if they had a winning record the previous season.  These two teams also met in the season opener last year.  That game was played at Kentucky, but Southern Miss upset the Wildcats, 44-35, as a 3.5-point underdog.  I look for Kentucky to avenge that upset loss, as they fall into 55-14 and 59-30 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Additionally, the Golden Eagles are an awful 3-10 ATS as home underdogs, priced from +7 to +20, while Kentucky is 30-2 straight-up, and 20-12 ATS when favored by 8+ points.  Finally, since 1990, teams from major conferences (like the SEC) have cashed 58% when playing with revenge vs. foes from minor conferences (like Conference USA), provided our revenger isn't getting 14+ points.  Lay the points with Kentucky.  NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over the Colorado Buffaloes.  We cashed our NCAA Game of the Week on Colorado State -3.5 over Oregon State last Saturday, as CSU blew out the Beavers, 58-27.  They'll have a big advantage vs. their cross-state rival, Colorado, as the Buffaloes won't have had any games yet this season to work out any kinks.  Indeed, over the past 35 years, teams playing their first game have covered just 41% vs. foes that covered the point spread by 7+ points in their season opener the previous week.  Even better:  if our team playing its season opener is priced from -3 to -14.5 points, then our angle zooms from 59% to 83% (and 89% if our 'play-on' team (here, Colorado State), is playing with revenge).  Speaking of revenge, it's not surprising that this "Centennial State" rivalry has seen the revenge-minded team generally get the cash.  These teams have met every season for the past 22 years, and the team that lost the previous year has gone 15-5-1 ATS, including 8-0-1 ATS when priced from -3 to +6.5 points!  With the Rams playing with revenge from a 44-7 loss last season, we'll pull the trigger on the underdog, and grab the points with Colorado State.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers + the points over Central Florida.  Last year, these two teams met in Miami, and UCF blew out the Panthers, 53-14.  And that continued the trend in this Sunshine State rivalry where the road team has not covered in of the last four seasons.  This game will be played in Orlando, and I look for Florida International to avenge that loss here, as road teams playing with revenge from a game in which they gave up 50+ points have cashed 67% over the past 23 seasons in their season opener.  Even worse:  Central Florida is a wallet-busting 27% ATS since 1999 when priced between -7.5 and -23 points vs. a foe playing with revenge.  Finally, over the past nine years, road dogs have cashed a staggering 72.2% of the time vs. non-conference foes when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 30 points (including 80% ATS if their opponent scored 50+ points in the previous year's meeting)!   Take Florida International + the points.  NCAA Football Game of the Month for August.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams minus the points over Oregon State.  The Rams ended the 2016 regular season on a 7-game ATS win streak (before getting upset by Idaho in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 61-50).  I look for Colorado State to cover the pointspread for their eighth straight regular season game in this, their home opener of 2017.  Indeed, the Rams are a perfect 4-0 ATS their last four lined home openers, and they're 9-1 ATS their last 10 home games vs. non-conference foes (and 18-7 ATS their last 25).  Meanwhile, the Beavers are a wallet-busting 9-19 ATS on the road vs. non-conference opposition.  Finally, Oregon State has lost its last 13 road games, straight-up, which doesn't bode well for covering the pointspread here, given the relatively short number.  Take Colorado State.  NCAA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday Feb. 5, our selection is on the New England Patriots over the Atlanta Falcons.  We played on the Patriots vs. the Steelers as our NFL Game of the Year, and that play was largely motivated by New England's vastly superior defense (it was 4.08 ppg better than the Steelers' defense).  Well, here, the gap between the Patriots' defense and the Falcons' defense is much larger than that.  New England's given up just 15.72 ppg, while Atlanta's surrendered an ungodly (for a Playoff team) 24.83 ppg.  That doesn't bode well for Atlanta, as underdogs have covered just 3 of 15 Super Bowls since 1984 if matched up against a foe whose defense gives up less than 16.32 ppg.  And, yes, it's absolutely true that the Falcons have a fantastic offense.  They put up 44 points in their last game, and have scored 33+ points in each of their past six games, and average 34.44 ppg on the season.  Unfortunately for the Falcons, teams off a Playoff win, in which they scored more than 40 points, have gone 0-13 ATS if they also scored more than 100 points in their three previous games, and give up, on defense, at least 15 ppg.  It's often said that 'defense wins championships.'  And that's because we've seen great offenses flounder countless times on the biggest stage.  Indeed, there have been four teams that averaged at least 32.7 ppg to make the Super Bowl, and none has won or covered its game, or even scored 17+ points!  The Redskins lost 38-9 to Oakland; Dan Marino's Dolphins fell, 38-16, to the 49ers; the undefeated, 18-0, Patriots lost 17-14 to the Giants; and Peyton Manning's Broncos (arguably the best offense, ever) lost 43-8 to Seattle.  Combined, those 4 offensive juggernauts failed to cover the spread by an average of 20.6 ppg in the Super Bowl!  New England's now won nine straight games (8-1 ATS), and has given up more than 17 points just once (vs. Baltimore) in those nine games!  But even that game vs. the Ravens, in which New England gave up 23 points, must be assigned an asterisk, as 14 of the Ravens' 23 points were gifted to them on the heels of two fumbles by Patriot kick returners.  Until those two fumbles -- on back to back kickoffs -- the Pats had a 23-3 lead.  Baltimore's offense had been completely shut down by New England, so, without those two gaffes, Baltimore likely would have had just 3 points thru three quarters.  Finally -- and this is not a knock on Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan -- there's just not a better coaching staff in football than the Patriots' staff (HC Bill Belichick, OC Josh McDaniels, DC Matt Patricia).  And if you give Belichick & Co. an extra week to prepare, then you can rest assured they'll have a great game plan in place.  To wit:  New England's 27-9 SU when working with an extra week under Belichick, including 8-3-1 ATS its last 12 when not favored by 7+ points.  Take the Patriots.  NFL Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Pittsburgh/New England game.  We played on the 'over' in the Patriots/Texans game, and were rewarded with a 34-16 New England win.  That high-scoring game extended New England's 'over' run to 78-49 its last 127, and 8-2-1 at home in the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Steelers have generally been an 'over' team in the Playoffs.  Since 1983, Pittsburgh's gone 'over' 27-12-1, including 10-1 'over' if its opponent's defensive ppg was less than 16.36.  New England, of course, is giving up just 15.64 ppg this season, but teams that give up less than 16 ppg have gone 'over' 57% in the Playoffs the past 37 years (and 67% if the O/U line was 46+ points).  The 'over' falls into 60-29, 37-14 and 50-24 Totals Systems of mine.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Patriots are a better team across the board.  They own the better offense (27.94 ppg vs 24.83 ppg), better defense (15.64 vs. 19.72), better win percentage (.882 vs. .722), better pointspread differential (5.17 vs. 1.05), better pointspread win percentage (.823 vs. .611).  They're also playing at home, and have been installed as a mid-sized favorite.  In the Playoffs, when you get a team (like Pittsburgh) playing away from home against an opponent which is superior in every single one of these categories, it's not very surprising to learn that our inferior teams don't do very well.  Of course, certain of our statistics bear more importance than others at this stage of the Playoffs.  And one of the things I love to do in the Conference Championship round is play on the teams that own the better defense.  Here, of course, that's New England.  The Patriots have given up just 15.64 ppg this season, and that rates 4.08 ppg better than the Steelers' defense.  And in the Conference Championship round, teams with a defensive ppg at least 1 point better than their opponent's defensive ppg, have cashed 100% (10-0 ATS) at home when priced from -2.5 to -6.5 points.   New England's 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS at home in the Playoffs since 2012.  And it's 10-3-1 ATS vs. Pittsburgh in the last 14 meetings (as well as 4-0 ATS vs. Pittsburgh in the last four post-season meetings).  Finally, road underdogs priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points are a dismal 6-17 ATS in the Conference Championship round if they pulled an upset win in the quarterfinals.   Take New England.  NFL Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Pittsburgh.  This is a very difficult situation for the Steelers, who will be playing their first road game after three straight home games.  And NFL road underdogs have gone 0-11 ATS since 1981 off a home playoff win, if they also were at home in their two games previous to that.  Even worse for the Steelers:  they blew out Kansas City 43-14 in early October.  But the Chiefs are a super 20-10 ATS at home their last 30 when playing with same-season revenge, including 10-0 ATS vs. .715 (or worse) foes off a win.  Take Kansas City.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Dallas/Green Bay game.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Green Bay Packers.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Houston Texans to go 'over' the total.  The Houston Texans score just 18.00 ppg, and give up just 20.11 (for 38.11 combined points per game).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game.  But NFL underdogs have gone 'over' in 24 of 32 Playoff games, if their games, on average, generated less than 39.3 ppg.  And teams that average less than 20 points on offense have gone 'over' in seven straight playoff games.  Additionally, six of the last eight meetings between these two franchises have gone 'over' the total.  And New England has gone 'over' in 77 of its last 126 games, including 7-2-1 'under' at home in the playoffs.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the Seattle Seahawks.  Atlanta lost a 26-24 heartbreaker to the Seahawks earlier this year, when Steven Hauschka kicked the game-winner with 1:57 left to cap a 4th quarter rally which saw Seattle outscore the Falcons, 9-0, in the final frame.  But NFL teams, with a win percentage between .600 and .750, playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, have cashed 45 of 65 Playoff games, including a perfect 14-0 ATS if they lost by 3 points or less in that earlier game.  Also, Seattle falls into negative 27-75 and 38-88 ATS systems of mine, based on its relatively poor offensive stats.  To wit:  Atlanta's offense has been 11.39 ppg better than Seattle's this season!  And home teams with a much better offense (at least +3.0 ppg) have covered 62% in the Playoffs when not laying more than 7 points.  Take Atlanta.  NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Jan. 9, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over the Alabama Crimson Tide.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 4:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over New York.  Interestingly, these two teams have met seven times since 2008.  In the five regular season meetings, the home team covered all five, but in the two Playoff games, it was the road team (and both times, the New York Giants) that got the cash.  Still, I’m going to back the homestanding Packers in this game.  The Giants are in a horrid situation, as they will be playing their third straight road game, after having to play Philly and Washington away from home in the final two weeks of the regular season.  Unfortunately for New York, teams that ended their regular season with back-to-back road games have been awful on the road in their initial playoff game.  Since 1984, they’ve gone 3-14 straight-up, and have covered just four of those 17 games.  That’s one reason I’m going to fade New York.  Another is that it upset Washington, as a 9.5-point underdog.  And teams off an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog in their final regular season game have covered just one of eight Playoff games over the past 30 years.   Finally, Green Bay is 87-57-4 in Aaron Rodgers’ career starts, including 26-8-1 ATS when priced between -3.5 and -6.5 points.  And while it’s easy to focus on the fact that the Eli Manning and the Giants upset the Packers in the Playoffs in 2012, Green Bay has still gone 8-4- ATS in the Playoffs with Rodgers, including 7-1-1, 88% ATS vs. a foe off a pointspread win.  Take Green Bay.  NFL Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Earlier this year, Miami upset Pittsburgh, 30-15, as a 7-point underdog.  We had a huge play on Miami in that game, so the result didn't surprise us.  But we'll lay the points with Pittsburgh here, in this revenge spot.  The Dolphins, of course, are down to their 2nd string QB after Ryan Tannehill sustained ACL and MCL sprains last month vs. Arizona.  Miami's offense wasn't very good to begin with (it only scores 22.7 ppg).  Certainly, that's problematic.  But even more so because Miami's defense is below average, and gives up 23.7 ppg.  So, it won't be able to keep this game within reach should Miami's offense falter.  For technical support, consider that, since 1980, NFL favorites of -8 or more points, playing with revenge, have gone 15-0 ATS if their opponent's offensive scoring average was less than 23.7 ppg.  Also, Pittsburgh has cashed its last 5 Playoff games when playing with revenge, while Miami has gone 0-9 SU/ATS in the Playoffs as a dog of more than 2 points vs. .600 (or better) foes.  Take the Steelers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Seattle.  Detroit has failed to cover its last three games.  But NFL teams off 3 ATS losses to end the regular season have cashed 65.5% in the Playoffs the past 37 years!  With the pointspread up significantly from the opener, we'll grab the points with Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over the Oakland Raiders.  The Texans were 9-7 on the season, and outscored by 49 points over the course of the season (-3.06 ppg), yet are the decided favorite against the 12-4 Raiders, who outscored their foes by 31 points this season (+1.94 ppg).  Obviously, it's because of Oakland's quarterback situation.  But the Texans shouldn't have to apologize for not having to face Derek Carr.  After all, last season, the Texans had to go into the Playoffs with Bobby Hoyer as their starting QB.  And he doomed Houston by throwing four interceptions.  And this season, they've been without J.J. Watt, their best player, since Week 3, when he suffered a herniated disk in his back.  So, even though the Texans have a relative scoring margin of -5.0 ppg compared to Oakland, we'll lay the points on Saturday.  And that's because teams favored by 3 or more points, off a loss in their last regular season game, have gone 8-0, 100% ATS in the Playoffs since 1980 if they owned a relative scoring margin of -1.38 ppg (or worse) to their foe.  Additionally, the Texans lost, 27-20, at home to Oakland in November.  But Houston falls into a 34-15 ATS revenge system of mine.  Finally, Houston's performed very well in the role of a favorite, as it's cashed 14 of its last 19.  Lay the points.  NFL Wild Card Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Monday, January 2nd, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers over Oklahoma, as Auburn falls into several of my best Bowl systems, with records of 85-34, 71-31, 44-15 and 60-35 ATS.  There are several reasons why I love Auburn in this game, but perhaps the most important is Auburn's stellar defense.  It's allowed just 15.6 ppg against opponents that average 28.1 ppg!  In contrast, Oklahoma has allowed 29.7 ppg (against opponents that average 32.9 ppg).  Thus, Auburn's defense has held its foes to 55.5% of their point production while Oklahoma's stop unit has only held its foes to 90.2% of their offensive production.  That's a huge difference.  Indeed, College Bowl teams have cashed 77% over the past 20 seasons if their defense surrendered, on average, at least 10 less points than their foe, and they weren't favored by 6+ points in the game (including a perfect 12-0-1 ATS the last 12).  Even worse for the Sooners:  Big 12 Conference teams have covered just 6 of their last 29 Bowl games vs. SEC Conference foes, including 0-8 ATS since 2007 if the Big 12 Conference team's defense gave up 25+ ppg!  Take Auburn.  NCAA Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over the Iowa Hawkeyes.  The Big 10 was thought by many to be the best conference in College Football this season, but its member schools have not played well in the post-season.  They've gone 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS, with its two best teams -- Michigan and Ohio State -- both suffering upset losses.  The Big 10 has also underperformed vs. the SEC in Bowl games, and especially in this price range.  Since 1989, the Big 10 has gone 9-18 SU/ATS when priced from PK to +4 in the Bowls vs. the SEC.  It's true that the Iowa Hawkeyes are on a 3-game win streak, while the Gators have dropped their last two (including a 54-16 loss to #1 Alabama in the SEC Title Game).  And that may lead many bettors to plunk down money on Iowa at the betting window.  But in the post-season, teams off 3+ wins have actually cashed just 18 of 49 games vs. opponents off back to back losses (and just one of eight (12%) against foes with a great defense which gives up less than 18 ppg)!  And Florida's also an awesome 63.3% over the past 21 seasons vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Florida.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  For the Detroit Lions franchise, which hasn't won a division title since 1993, this is the biggest regular season game in more than a generation.  Unless the Redskins lose to the Giants earlier in the day, the loser of this game will miss the Playoffs, while the winner will claim the division crown.  Certainly, the Packers are playing better football.  They've won five straight, including road wins at Chicago and Philadelphia.  But the Eagles are 6-9, while Chicago is 3-12.  And the Packers' only other road win this season came against the 3-12 Jaguars.  Detroit, though, has a winning record, at 9-6.  And the Packers have lost all four road games this season vs. opponents with a .466 (or better) record (Vikings, Falcons, Titans, Redskins).  And Green Bay's lost those four games by an average of 11 ppg.  It's true that Detroit lost its last two games -- 17-6 at New York, and 42-21 at Dallas.  But those two games were on the road.  At home, in Ford Field, the Lions have been dominant, and come into this contest on a 6-game home win streak (4-1-1 ATS).  And winning home teams, off back to back road losses, have covered 64 of 98 dating back to 1981.  Also, Detroit falls into a 31-4 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams off losses, in which they gave up 40+ points.  Before surrendering 42 to Dallas, the Lions' defense had not given up 21+ points in eight consecutive games.  It should rise to the occasion again, here, at home, in this critical game.  Take Detroit + the points.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Arizona.  We played on the Cardinals as an 8-point underdog last week, and they rewarded us with an outright win at Seattle.  But off that division upset, I look for a letdown on Sunday at Los Angeles.  And that's because .401 (or better) teams off an upset win the previous week as a 6-point (or greater) underdog generally do poorly against the spread.  And especially if they're favored against an opponent off a loss, as they're 86-43 ATS since 1980.  Even worse for the Cardinals:  teams favored on the road in their final game of the regular season, off an upset win, are 0-10 ATS since 1990 vs. an opponent off an ATS loss.  Finally, the Rams fall into a 71-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses.  Take Los Angeles.  NFC West Division Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over Dallas.  We played on Dallas last Monday in its 42-21 win vs. Detroit.  But we'll switch gears, and go against the Cowboys in this, their final road game of the season.  Dallas has a 13-2 record, so this game is meaningless with respect to Playoff positioning.  The Cowboys have earned the #1 seed, and will enjoy home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs.  But since 1990, NFL teams with a win percentage of .750 or better, have been horrid on the road in their final regular season game.  They've gone 9-21 straight-up and 7-22-1 ATS, including 1-7 ATS if our road team's W/L percentage was more than 40 percentage points greater than its opponent's W/L percentage.  Moreover, the Cowboys fall into a negative 15-52 ATS system of mine based on their high-scoring win last week.  Finally, road underdogs have covered just 21% over the past 36 seasons in their final game of the season, if they were working off a short week, due to playing on the previous Monday night.  Take Philly.  NFC East Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Ryan Fitzpatrick will start at quarterback for New York, and he had his best game of the season back in Week 2 vs. the Bills, when he threw for 374 yards in a 37-31 victory.  Meanwhile, E.J. Manuel will start under center for Buffalo, rather than Tyrod Taylor, as the Bills couldn’t risk a serious injury to Taylor, which would trigger a guaranteed 27.5 million dollar payment for next season.  Last week, we had a big play on New England over the Jets, and were rewarded with a 41-3 blowout win.  But we’ll jump on the Jets this week, as home underdogs (or PK) off a loss by 23 or more points have gone 183-114 ATS since 1980 if they’re playing an opponent with a win percentage better than .400, including 57-23 ATS if that opponent lost its game the previous week.   Finally, the underdog in this rivalry has gone 42-25 ATS, including 31-12 ATS if it had a worse won/loss record.  Take New York.  NFL Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over Ohio State.  At this stage of the season, it's not surprising when both teams have solid defenses.  And that's the case this evening.  Ohio State gives up just 14.2 ppg, while Clemson gives up a few more, but still a very respectable 18.4 ppg.  In Bowl games, it's dangerous to lay points in games between two very good defensive teams, as favorites -- not playing on their home field -- have covered just 31% of the time over the past 19 seasons in games between teams that each give up less than 18.5 ppg.  Additionally, Clemson's a perfect 9-0 ATS its last nine games away from home when playing an opponent which gives up less than 17.5 ppg.  Take the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 11 am, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Georgia Tech.  The Wildcats opened the season with three straight pointspread defeats.  But they got into the win column in Vegas with a 17-10 victory, as a 2-point favorite, vs. South Carolina in Week 4.  And that started a terrific run through the end of the season which saw them go 7-1 ATS vs. Division 1 schools, with their only pointspread defeat by a mere half-point vs. Georgia.  I definitely won't step in front of Kentucky, as an underdog, here.  And especially since they stunned Louisville as a 28.5-point underdog in their last game.  For technical support, consider that teams that won outright as underdogs of more than 14 points in their final regular season game have cashed 73.3% in the Bowls over the past 19 seasons (including Southern Miss, two weeks ago, in this season's New Orleans Bowl).  Take Kentucky.

At 11 am, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over LSU.  It's true that Lamar Jackson & Co. stumbled badly down the stretch.  Louisville lost its last two games -- 36-10 at Houston, and 41-38, at home, vs. rival Kentucky.  We had one of our biggest plays of the season on Houston +17.5 against Louisville, so that game didn't really surprise me.  But even though we didn't play the game, the Cardinals' loss to Kentucky, as a 28.5-favorite, certainly did raise my eyebrows.  However, if there's one thing I've learned about College Bowl games, it is that teams that stumble down the stretch often bounce back in the Bowls.  Indeed, Bowl underdogs off back to back upset losses have covered 64.7% over the past 37 years.  Take Louisville.  Even better, underdogs of +3 or more points, off a loss in which they failed to cover the spread by 21+ points, have covered 84.6% in Bowl games over the past 13 seasons vs. foes off a SU/ATS win (including 2-0 already this season with North Texas and South Carolina getting the $$$).  Take Louisville.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Florida State.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars + the points over Air Force.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Tennessee.  The line has reached double-digits (due to Nebraska's QB issues), but we'll still pull the trigger on the underdog Huskers, as it's tough to turn down this amount of points in a bowl game.  And especially when our team has the vastly superior defense (Nebraska gives up 22.7 ppg against opponents that averaged 28.2; Tennessee 29.2 ppg against opponents that averaged 26.6).  Indeed, Nebraska falls into 28-5 and 34-8 ATS systems of mine that play on certain underdogs with good defenses.  Take the Cornhuskers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Stanford.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks + the points over Virginia Tech.  Both teams lost their last game of the season.  The Hokies lost by 7, as a double-digit underdog vs. Clemson, while Arkansas fell, 28-24, at Missouri, as a 7.5-point road favorite.  I look for the Razorbacks to get the $$$ on Thursday, as College teams off an upset road loss have covered 71% since 1981 as underdogs in the post-season against foes not off a pointspread defeat.  Additionally, the Razorbacks are 9-0 ATS their last nine games off an upset loss, if they're matched up against a foe off a loss.  Take Arkansas.  NCAA High Roller!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over South Florida.  The Bulls lost their head coach, Willie Taggart, to the University of Oregon, so co-offensive coordinator T.J. Wiest will serve as the head coach for this ballgame.  Other Bowl schools that saw their coaches depart this month include Houston (Tom Herman) and Temple (Matt Rhule), and both Houston and Temple lost outright as favorites in their bowl game.  Don't be surprised if South Florida does, as well.  Meanwhile, South Carolina was able to win four of its final six games to reach the .500 mark, at 6-6.  And, as I mentioned yesterday in our discussion of the Indiana/Utah game, College Football teams have done terrific in the Bowls if they didn't own a winning record.  Dating back to 2002, our non-winning bowl teams have cashed 67.2% vs. winning opposition, including 7-1 ATS this season, and 34-13 ATS as an underdog of +10 or less points.  Take the Gamecocks + the points.  NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Texas A/M Aggies minus the points over Kansas State.  The Wildcats upset TCU, 30-6, as a 4-point road underdog to end their season, while Texas A&M lost its last game, 54-39, at home vs. LSU.  Unfortunately for the Wildcats, underdogs off an upset win away from home have burned money in the post-season against foes off a loss by 6+ points.  Since 1980, our dogs have cashed just 28% of the time.  Additionally, the Aggies will have the benefit of the home crowd on Wednesday night, as NRG Stadium is a mere 90 minutes distance from College Station.  Take Texas A&M.  NCAA Favorite of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Utah.  The Hoosiers enter today's game with a 6-6 record, while Utah is 8-4.  And with the proliferation of Bowl games, we're increasingly seeing teams without winning records get invitations to play in these games.  At first, I thought it was sort of ridiculous to have non-winning teams get awarded a Bowl bid.  But then I decided to just make $$$ off of it, and it wasn't too surprising to see these bad teams do extremely well at the betting window.  Of course there could be several reasons why this happens, but perhaps the most simple is also the most accurate:  these teams just want to prove they're deserving of being in the game.  Dating back to 2002, our non-winning bowl teams have cashed 66% vs. winning opposition, including 5-1 ATS this season, and 32-13 ATS as an underdog of +10 or less points.  Even worse for Utah:  it's an awful 21-48 ATS since 1994 when priced from -3 to -9.5 points, including 8-24 ATS away from home.  Take Indiana.  NCAA Football High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Miami.  We played against WVU in its last regular season game.  The Mountaineers were favored by 17 vs. Baylor, but won by just three points, and failed to cover by 14 points.  Meanwhile, Miami cashed its last regular season game with a 40-21 blowout of Duke, as a 16-point favorite.  But teams off ATS wins in their most recent game have covered just 41% in the Bowls over the past 36 years, if they're matched up against an opponent which failed to cover by 14+ points in its previous game.  These two schools actually have a long history vs. one another -- mainly when both were members of the Big East Conference.  They've met 13 times over the previous 25 seasons, and the underdog has covered 10 of 13.  Finally, Miami falls into negative 79-130 and 20-51 ATS systems of mine that play against certain Bowl teams off a double-digit win.  Take the Mountaineers.  NCAA Football Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Washington State.  The dominant storyline, of course, for this game is the suspension of the Minnesota players.  This happens to at least one team every Bowl season, and it's been my perception that the teams with the suspended player(s) rally together, and cover the pointspread more often than not.  For example, in the Alamo Bowl last year, TCU played without QB Trevone Boykin, who was suspended for punching a policeman.  The pointspread was severely adjusted due to his absence, but TCU didn't end up even needing the points, as back-up QB Bram Kohlhausen was spectacular (351 yds, 4 TDs) in leading the Frogs to an upset win.  Similarly, the pointspread on this game was adjusted following the suspensions, and I'm more than happy to take the points with the Gophers.  Washington State dropped its final two games of the season (at Colorado, and at home to Washington).  But since 1984, favorites with a .600 (or better) record are a woeful 6-24 ATS off back to back losses to end their regular season, including 0-7 ATS when favored by more than 7 points.  Take Minnesota.  NCAA Football Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Temple.  It's true that Temple has a stellar season.  The Owls were 10-3 straight-up, compared to Wake Forest's 6-6 record.  But Temple head coach Matt Rhule left to take the same position at Baylor.  That distraction will hurt the Owls in today's game.  Additionally, the Demon Deacons lost their last three games of the season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Wake Forest today.  But NCAA Football teams on a 3-game (or worse) losing streak have gone 65.2% ATS in the post-season since 1980 when getting more than 3 points.  Take Wake Forest.  College Football Underdog of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green + the points over Army.  These two teams met earlier this season, and North Texas won handily, 35-18, as 17.5-point underdogs.  And that game was played at Army.  This afternoon's game will be played in Dallas, just a stone's throw away from North Texas' campus in Denton.  We'll grab the double-digits with North Texas, as College Football teams (like Army) with a .900 (or worse) record are an awful 36-57 ATS when favored by 10+ points in the post-season.  Take North Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Detroit, as the Lions fall into negative 13-58 and 56-109 ATS systems of mine.  Even worse for Detroit:  last week, the Lions lost 17-6 to the New York Giants, while Dallas defeated Tampa Bay, 26-20.  And winning teams (like Dallas), priced from -3 to -12 points, have cashed 17 straight games at home on Monday Night Football vs. non-division foes, if such foe lost its previous game by 7+ points.  Take the Cowboys. NFL Elite Info Winner. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 am, on Monday, our selection is on the Miami Ohio Red Hawks + the points over Mississippi State.  Miss State comes into this game off a 35-point upset win over their rival, Ole Miss.  But that shocking win only raised Miss State's record to a woeful 5-7 on the season.  So, the Bulldogs, along with Hawaii, were one of the two teams to make a Bowl game with a losing record.  But, unlike Hawaii (on which we played on Saturday), Mississippi State has been installed as a big favorite.  But teams favored by 7+ points in a Bowl game have covered a paltry 40.0% over the past 37 years when matched up against an opponent with a superior record, including 0-2 already this season (Colo State, Louisiana Tech).  That doesn't bode well for the Bulldogs on Monday morning.  And neither does the fact that College Football teams, off a cover by 10+ points, are 37% ATS as Double-Digit Bowl Favorites since 1999.   Take Miami-Ohio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the KC/Denver game.  Neither one of these two teams has been playing high-scoring games, of late.  The Broncos have gone 'under' in three straight, including 13-10 and 16-3 losses the past two weeks to Tennessee and New England, respectively.  And KC checks in off 'unders' in eight of 10 games, including their last two, a 21-13 win over Oakland, and a 19-17 upset loss to Tennessee.  But I look for a much higher scoring game tonight, as NFL games with O/U lines less than 40 points have gone 'over' the total 60.4% of the time if both teams come in off back to back games that didn't generate 37+ points.  Take the 'over.'  AFC Total of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over Middle Tennessee State.  This game will be played in Honolulu, at Aloha Field, so the Warriors will enjoy the home field advantage.  And it's tough to go against a team playing at home in a bowl game, and especially if wasn't an awful team against the spread during the season (and Hawaii was not).  Indeed, teams playing at home, with a .400 (or better) ATS season win percentage, have gone 8-0 ATS in the Bowls when getting more than 3 points, and have covered by an average of 13.44 ppg.  Take Hawaii.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tampa Bay/New Orleans game, as it falls into a 160-101 Totals system of mine.  These two teams met just 13 days ago, and the Bucs won, 16-11, at home.  That game sailed 'under' the total by 25 points, and I look for another low-scoring game on Saturday, notwithstanding the fact that each was just involved in high-scoring games last week.  The Bucs come into this game off a 26-20 loss at Dallas, while New Orleans defeated Arizona, 48-41.  But teams (like New Orleans) that were involved in a game which produced more than 85 points have gone 'under' the total 64% since 1980 if their opponent's previous game generated more than 45 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Seattle Seahawks.  Last week, the Seahawks demolished Los Angeles, 24-3, as a 15.5-point favorite, while Arizona lost, 48-41, at home to New Orleans.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Arizona on the road, given that it's off back to back SU/ATS losses, and Seattle's off a 21-point win.  But consider that the Seahawks are a miserable 15-42 ATS off a win by 21+ points if they weren't favored by more than 10 points in their current game.  Moreover, teams (like Arizona) that lost a game in which they scored 37+ points, have rebounded to go 31-10 ATS in their next game, including 8-0 ATS when priced from +6 to +10 points.  Take the Cardinals.  NFL Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.