At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus the points over Navy.  Notre Dame's 5-game win streak in this series was snapped last year when the Midshipmen upset the Irish, 28-27, as a 7.5-point underdog.  But I love Brian Kelly's men to avenge that defeat, and especially since they're coming off a 41-8 loss to Miami-Florida last week.  This also will be Notre Dame's final home game of the season, and NCAA favorites of more than 15 points have cashed 78% since 1980 in their final home game, if they were off a 20-point (or worse) defeat!  Lay it.  NCAA Payback Payday.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Southern Eagles + the points over South Alabama.  We played against Georgia Southern last week, and got the cash with Appalachian State, which defeated the Eagles, 27-6, as a 17.5-point favorite.  That loss lowered Georgia Southern's season record to 0-9 straight-up and 2-6 ATS.  But I love the Eagles in this home underdog role, on Saturday.  They catch South Alabama coming off a big upset win at home over Arkansas State, as a 13-point underdog.  And, unfortunately for the Jaguars, teams off home upsets as a 13-point (or greater) underdog have had huge letdowns in their next game as road favorites.  Since 1980, they've covered just 32.1% of their games.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Sun Belt Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs minus the points over Rice.  The Owls are 1-9 on the season, with eight straight losses, and are clearly playing out the string.  Old Dominion, on the other hand, is not playing out the string.  It's 4-6, but it's won each of its past two games, including last week's 37-30 upset win at Florida International, as a 10-point underdog.  I look for Old Dominion to keep its momentum going, at home, on Saturday, as teams (like Rice) that haven't won more than 1 game on the season, have cashed just 32% (at Game 11 forward) vs. conference foes off an upset win.  Take the Monarchs.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Rutgers.  Both of these teams are 4-6 on the season, but going in opposite directions in Las Vegas.  The Scarlet Knights have covered each of the last five games, while the Hoosiers are on an 0-7 ATS skein.  But before you open up your wallet for the "hot" Scarlet Knights, consider that teams off five straight ATS losses have covered 73% vs. foes off five straight ATS wins over the past 22 years!  That doesn't bode well for Rutgers on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that Rutgers has covered just 5 of 20 games vs. Conference foes playing their final home game of the season.  After this home game, the Hoosiers will play Purdue on the road.  And Indiana needs to win both to qualify for a Bowl game.  Take Indiana minus the points.  NCAA Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over Miami.  In its last game, Miami upset the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and the Hurricanes are now ranked #2 in the Country.  Unfortunately, they likely will have a letdown on Saturday vs. the Cavaliers.  Indeed, undefeated teams, with an 8-0 (or better) record have gone 1-10 ATS off an upset win, if priced between -6 and -21 points.  The Cavaliers are also 5-1 ATS their last six games at Miami, while college football teams are a horrid 12-27-2 ATS as a favorite (or PK) after upsetting the Fighting Irish in their previous game.  Grab the points.  NCAA High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Buffalo.  The Cardinals have lost their last seven games, straight-up, and failed to cover the pointspread in their last eight.  And such a losing streak will keep most of the bettors off of them, here, in this game.  But I love them as a home underdog vs. Buffalo, as Mid-American Conference home underdogs, off a SU/ATS loss (and an ATS loss two games back), have cashed 64% over the past 20 years vs. conference foes off a win!  And the Cardinals also fall into a super 68.3% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams on long losing streaks.  Take Ball State + the points.  MAC Game of the Week! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'Over' in the Los Angeles Chargers/Jacksonville Jaguars game.  The Jaguars have the league's best defense, and have held five of their eight opponents this season to less than 10 points (including Indy and Cincy in their last two games).   And, yes, it's true that neither of the Jaguars' last two games totaled more than 30 points.  But NFL teams have gone 'over' the total more often than not after playing two straight games that didn't total more than 30 points.  Interestingly, this will be the fourth meeting in the last four seasons between these two teams.  And each of the previous three meetings sailed 'over' the total, with an average of 51.67 ppg.  Moreover, the Chargers haven't scored less than 10 points in any of their last 27 games.  And they've averaged 23.33 ppg over this 27-game span.  So, I believe Philip Rivers & Co. will be able to put up some points on the Jags' #1-rated defense.  The OVER also falls into 82-53 and 99-68 systems of mine.  This will be a relatively high-scoring game.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Arizona State.  The Sun Devils come into Pasadena off a 41-30 win vs. Colorado last Saturday, and are now 5-4 this season.  Meanwhile, Jim Mora's Bruins are 4-5 on the season after getting blown out by Washington (44-23) and Utah (48-17) in their last two games.  But UCLA's five losses have all come away from home, where the Bruins are 0-6 ATS their last six, and 2-11 ATS their last 13.  UCLA is back home on Saturday night, which bodes well for it, as UCLA has won all four of its home games this season!  UCLA is also a solid 44-27, 62% ATS at home when not laying more than 7 points.  Finally, revenge-minded favorites off back to back 21-point losses have cashed 79% since 1980 vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take UCLA.  NCAA Roadkill Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Alabama.  Certainly, Alabama deserves its #1 ranking, as it's 9-0, with a 31.11 ppg margin of victory.  On the other hand, the Crimson Tide are below .500 against the spread, which indicates they're a tad overvalued in Vegas.  In contrast, Mississippi State has rewarded its bettors with a 6-3 ATS record to go along with its 7-2 SU record.  And that doesn't bode well for Nick Saban's troops on Saturday, as undefeated teams (at Game 8 forward) have covered just 1 of 15 games as double-digit road favorites vs. opponents with a winning SU and a winning ATS record!  Even better:  Miss State has cashed 83% at home over the past 38 years if they were off a win the previous week, and are now getting double-digits.  Finally, Miss State also falls into 32-1, 47-7, 84-32 and 21-0 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Bulldogs + the points.  SEC Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Clemson.  Last week, we played against Clemson, and got the $$$ with NC State, as a +7.5-point underdog.  And we'll go against the Tigers once again this week, as they fall into a negative 27-65 ATS system of mine.  Florida State is obviously having a "down" year, with a 3-5 record on the season (and 0-6-2 ATS), though it did get into the win column last week with a 27-24 triumph vs. Syracuse.  The Seminoles also received some welcome news this week when they learned that running back Jacques Patrick will be able to get back onto the field on this Saturday (after missing extended time with a knee injury).  We'll grab the points with Florida State, as winless ATS teams, with an 0-4 (or worse) ATS record, are 15-0 ATS since 2001 off a straight-up win if playing a winning opponent.  Take the Seminoles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Virginia.  We played against Louisville in its last game, a blowout loss in Winston-Salem against Wake Forest.  The Cardinals had last week off to recover from that defeat, and that rest should serve them well against an unrested Cavaliers squad which is coming off a huge upset win vs. Georgia Tech.  Unfortunately for Virginia, it's covered just 33% of the time away from home the past 38 years off an upset win, if matched up against an opponent off an upset defeat.  Take Louisville.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Michigan St.  Ohio State suffered an embarrassing beatdown at the hands of the iowa Hawkeyes last week, as it lost by 31 points, as 21-point favorite.  And that 52-point differential between the final margin of victory and the pointspread was tied for the 20th worst pointspread differential in the past 38 years.  However, I expect Urban Meyer's men to bounce back off that defeat, as Ohio State's 28-9-1 ATS in Big 10 Conference games off a loss.  Take the Buckeyes.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Baylor.  The Bears opened this season with eight straight losses before finally getting a win -- against woeful Kansas.  But they'll be hard-pressed to make it two in a row, as they will face a Texas Tech squad which looks to make amends from an upset loss last week at home vs. Kansas State.  And the Red Raiders generally bounce back from losses, as they're 70-43 ATS vs. Conference foes.  Take Texas Tech.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Rutgers.  Penn State lost at Ohio State, 39-38, two weeks ago, and 27-24 at Michigan State last week.  But off those two road defeats, I look for Penn State to bounce back on Saturday.  Indeed, since 1980, teams that were undefeated through their first 7+ games, and then lost two games in a row, have bounced back strong (86.7% ATS) off those 2 losses, if they were playing a losing team!  Moreover, Rutgers is an awful 16-36-1 ATS when priced from +20 to +33.5 points.  Take Penn State.  High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Temple.  The Owls stunned Navy last week, 34-26, as a 6-point home underdog!  Now, the Owls travel to the Queen City to play Cincinnati, and the Owls have been installed as a road favorite.  Obviously, it's not a common occurrence for College Football teams to be a home underdog one game, and a road favorite the next.  And, not surprisingly, NCAA teams that won outright as a home dog have had big letdowns their next game if installed as a road favorite.  Since 1980, they've cashed just 43% of the time.  Even worse for Temple:  it's defeated the Bearcats each of the past two seasons.  But Cincy's 24-13 ATS when playing with revenge, if it also lost to its opponent two meetings back.  And it's also 44-30 ATS at home when not favored by more than 5 points, including 4-1 ATS vs. foes off upset wins.  Take the Bearcats.  AAC Conference Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian St. Mountaineers minus the points over Georgia Southern.  Appy State was upset last week at Louisiana Monroe, when the Warhawks won, 52-45, as an 8-point underdog.  But NCAA Favorites of more than 15 points have covered 61.05% since 1980 off a road upset loss as an 8-point (or greater) favorite.  Take the Mountaineers to blow out Georgia Southern.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio Bobcats + the points over Toledo.  Ohio comes into this game off three straight wins and covers.  And Ohio scored 48, 48 and 45 points in those three victories.  Faithful followers know I love to play on College Football home dogs that can score, as since 1983, home dogs off two wins, in which they scored 90+ points combined, are 66.9% ATS in the regular season.  Additionally, the Bobcats are 9-0 ATS their last nine when both they, and their opponent entered off a win.  Take Ohio.  MAC Game of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Bowling Green.  Buffalo certainly wants to give the Falcons some "payback" tonight, as Buffalo has lost the last six meetings to Bowling Green.  And I think it will get its revenge, as Buffalo is 24-9-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. a conference foe.  And Buffalo also falls into 62-31 and 53-21 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Lay the points with the Bulls.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Both of these teams come into this game off blowout losses:  Oakland fell, 34-14, at Buffalo, while Miami was annihilated by Baltimore, 40-0.  The Raiders now sit at 3-5 on the season, yet have been installed as a road favorite at 4-3 Miami.  We'll lay the points with Oakland as road favorites of -3+ points that have a worse record than their opponent, have covered 68.1% in the regular season (at Game 8 forward) over the past 17 years.  Additionally, Miami's an awful 31-64 ATS at home when not getting 4.5 or more points, including 12-40 ATS if the Dolphins' W/L percentage wasn't worse than their opponent's.  Take Oakland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Indianapolis Colts/Houston Texans game, as it falls into an 89-54 Totals system of mine.  The Texans started the year with QB Tom Savage under center, and lost on Opening Day, 29-7, to the Jaguars.  Savage lasted just 30 minutes before being replaced by Deshaun Watson, and the Texans were shut out in his 30 minutes of football.  With Watson as quarterback, the Texans' offense had hummed, as it scored 33, 57, 34, 33 and 38 points in Houston's last five games.  Unfortunately, he's out of the season, after sustaining an ACL injury in practice on Thursday.  So, the Texans will once again turn to Savage to lead the offense.  I look for a low-scoring game, as Indianapolis is offensively-challenged this season with its QB, Andrew Luck, sidelined, as it ranks just 25th in points scored (142).  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over New Orleans.  These two teams are going in opposite directions, as Tampa Bay is 2-5, and is on an 0-5-1 ATS losing streak, while New Orleans is 5-2, and has covered its last five games.  Of course, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the "hot" Saints, and against the "cold" Bucs.  But (as faithful followers might guess), that generally would be the wrong move.  Indeed, since 1980, NFL favorites off 5+ ATS wins have covered just 16% ATS vs. foes off 5+ ATS losses!  Also, New Orleans is a dreadful 39-78 ATS at home when not getting 6+ points, if they're playing an opponent off a SU loss (including 11-34 ATS vs. division rivals).  Take the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Philly.  It's true that the Eagles are red-hot, with six straight wins and five straight covers, including 34-24 and 33-10 blowout wins in their last two games.  And it's also true that Denver's offense has faltered lately, with three straight losses by scores of 23-10, 21-0, and 29-19.  But such streaks often create value in going against the hot team.  And Philly falls into a negative 40% ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams on 6-game win streaks (and 3-game ATS wins streaks).  And NFL teams off back to back losses where they scored 23 or less points combined in their previous two games, are a solid 65-42 ATS as underdogs vs. foes off 2 wins that scored 58+ points combined in those two victories.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over Jacksonville.  These two teams each played the Colts in their last game.  Jacksonville defeated Indy two weeks ago, 27-0 (and then had a Bye week), while Cincy barely got by Indy last Sunday, 24-23.  The fact that Cincy struggled vs. Indy, while Jacksonville blew Indy out has motivated a lot of bettors to plunk down money on the Jaguars this week.  But we'll go the other way, and take the points with the Bengals.  Indeed, the Jaguars have only been favored by more than three points once this season.  It was at the NY Jets, and we took the points with the Jets that game, and cashed when the Jets covered.  Moreover, the last time the Jaguars have been favored by this many points was December 26, 2010 -- almost 7 years ago -- and they lost outright to the Redskins!  And Jacksonville is 0-7 ATS its last seven when favored by 6+ points.  Take Cincy.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Houston.  Deshaun Watson sustained a season-ending ACL injury in practice, on Thursday, so ex-Pitt Panther QB Tom Savage will get the start for Houston.  Savage actually started on Opening Day vs. Jacksonville, and was sacked six times in the first half, before giving way to Watson in the 2nd half.  His stats in that half of football were 7-for-13, for 62 yards passing, and two fumbles!  Houston was scoreless in that first half (and ended up losing, 29-7).  That doesn't bode well for the Texans on Sunday.  And the Colts also fall into a 236-147 ATS sytem of mine.  Take Indianapolis.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the NY Giants + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  The Rams weren't expected to be this good, while the Giants weren't expected to be this bad.  But the NFL is often a topsy-turvy league, so here we are, in Week 9, and the Rams are favored on the road vs. New York.  But the last time the Rams were favored by this many points on the road was over 12 years ago -- September 11, 2005 -- when the laid 7 points to San Francisco.  And they lost outright, 28-25.  Indeed, the Rams have lost outright each of the last three times they were installed as a road favorite of -4+ points (including once as a 12-point favorite).  And they're 3-12 ATS when priced as a favorite (whether at home or on the road) of -3 to -6 points.  Finally, rested home dogs (like New York) with a .333 (or worse) W/L percentage, are a super 47-27 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Colorado.  We played against Todd Graham's men last week, and got the $$$ when USC blew out the Sun Devils, 48-17.  But we'll switch gears, and take ASU on this Saturday, as it falls into 90-42 and 78-31 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off blowout losses.  Additionally, the Sun Devils are a fantastic 26-12-1 ATS at home vs. conference foes when not favored by 5+ points, if they're off a loss.  And they're also a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS vs. the Buffaloes here in Tempe.  Meanwhile, Colorado is a money-burning 10-23 ATS as a road underdog priced from +2.5 to +17.5 points.  Take Arizona State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights are 7-0 after thrashing Austin Peay last week, 73-33, and are now alone in first place in the American Athletic Conference's East Division (after South Florida was defeated by Houston).  Central Florida is also just one of five remaining undefeated teams.  But this will be a tougher-than-expected test against a 6-2 SMU squad.  The Mustangs have also gone 5-3 ATS this year.  And home dogs of more than 6 points, with a winning record (both straight-up and ATS), are 32-7 ATS since 1992 vs. undefeated teams with a 7-0 (or better) record.  Additionally, the home team has covered five straight games in this series.  Take SMU.  American Athletic Conf. Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams minus the points over Wyoming.  Last week, Colorado State was favored by 10 points vs. Air Force, but was upset 45-28, so it failed to cover the spread by 27 points.  Meanwhile, Wyoming blew out New Mexico, 42-3, as a 2.5-point favorite.  So, it covered by 36.5 points.  Overall, Wyoming has gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS its last five, while Colo St is on a 3-game ATS losing streak.  It may look tempting to take the points with the home dog Cowboys, but be careful, as home dogs that covered their previous game by more than 26 points are a poor 28% over the past 30 years vs. foes off a pointspread loss of more than 26 points.  Even better for the Rams:  they're 19-7 ATS their last 26 road games, including 9-1 vs. .625 (or better) foes, and 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 7 or less points.  Take Colorado State in a blowout.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over Georgia.  The Bulldogs are off a 42-7 blowout of Florida, and ranked #1 in the country, but I expect a very tough game in Athens, on Saturday.  South Carolina has won three straight, and has held their last three foes (Arkansas, Tennessee, Vandy) to no more than 120 rushing yards.  It's also giving up less than 20 ppg on the season.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs fall into one of their worst pointspread roles, as they have covered just 28 of 85 home games off an SEC Conference win, including 1-9 ATS when priced from -18.5 to -24 points.  Even better for South Carolina:  undefeated teams, with an 8-0 (or better) record, that covered the spread by 20+ points in their previous game, are an awful 1-15 ATS when priced from -7.5 to -28 points vs. conference foes.  Take the Gamecocks.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack + the points over Clemson.  NC State lost, 35-14, to an excellent Notre Dame squad last week, but I love it to rebound here, at home, vs. ACC rival Clemson, on Saturday, as NC State falls into a revenge system of mine which is 73-32 ATS since 1980.  Moreover, the Wolfpack are 82.3% ATS the last 38 years as a home dog vs. conference foes, if NC State lost its previous game on the road SU/ATS.  Take the Wolfpack.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over Air Force.  Army will look to snap its four-game losing streak to its rival on Saturday.  And Army will have a big advantage in that it had last week off to rest and prepare.  The Knights won their fourth straight game their last time out, a 31-28 victory vs. Temple.  And Army's now won nine of their last 11 games -- a hot streak not seen in Army football in over 20 years (since it won 11 straight games across the 1995 and 1996 seasons).  Air Force is also coming into this game on a win streak, as it's won its last three, including an upset win as a double-digit dog at Colorado State last Saturday.  Unfortunately for the Falcons, unrested favorites of 7 or less points, off upset wins as a dog of +7.5 (or more) points, are an awful 14% ATS since 1980 vs. rested foes off a win.  And Air Force is 1-8 ATS its last nine as a favorite of 7 or less points off an upset win.  Take Army.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Iowa State.  We played on the Cyclones last week in their upset win over then-undefeated TCU, as a 7.5-point underdog.  Iowa State is now 6-2, and ranked #15 in the country.  Unfortunately, .666 (or better) underdogs, off wins over undefeated teams with a 5-0 (or better) record, have cashed a paltry 33% the past 38 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  With the Mountaineers, indeed, off a SU/ATS loss to Okie State, we'll take West Virginia as the small home favorite on Saturday.  Lay it.

At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoies minus the points over Syracuse.  The Seminoles are mired in a horrible year, as they were upset, 35-3, on the road vs. Boston College last Friday.  And FSU is also now 0-6-1 ATS!  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Seminoles, especially since Syracuse is 5-0-1 ATS its last six games.  But consider that .500 (or better) NCAA teams (like Syracuse) on a 5-game (or better) ATS win streak have covered just 15.3% of the time since 1980 vs. a foe with a worse W/L percentage, which was also on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  That doesn't bode well for Syracuse on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that ATS winless teams (like FSU) are a perfect 10-0 ATS (at Game 8 forward) as a home favorite, priced from -3.5 to -13.5 in conference games.  Additionally, FSU falls into 84-32, 88-29 and 52-15 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to bounce back off losses.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:00 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Florida Atlantic.  The Herd stumbled last Saturday when they lost, 41-30, at home, as a 15-point favorite to Florida International.  But Marshall had won its five previous games before that, and has covered five of seven on the season.  This week, Marshall will travel to play the Owls, and it's a critical game, as the two teams are separated by just one game atop the Conference USA East Division standings.  We'll grab the points with Marshall, as it falls into 51-15, 61-8 and 83-34 ATS "bounce-back" systems of mine that play on certain teams off upset losses.  Moreover, the Owls are 3-12-1 ATS their last 16 home games, including 0-4 ATS vs. foes off a SU loss.  And they're 5-19-1 ATS their last 25 as a favorite of less than 14 points (including 1-9 ATS vs. foes off a loss).  Take Marshall.  NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Northern Illinois.  Both of these teams come into tonight's game with identical 4-0 Mid-American Conference records, so this game will go a long way toward determining the West Division's representative in the MAC Championship game next month.  Toledo blew out Ball State last week, 58-17, and is 11-1 ATS its last 12 off a win by 17+ points, including 8-0 ATS as a favorite.  And it's 29-7 ATS as a favorite of less than 21 points after cover the spread in its previous game by 8+ points.  Finally, home teams off a SU/ATS win, that average more than 38.63 ppg on offense (thru the season's first 7 games), are 173-106 ATS in the regular season in the past 25 years.  Take Toledo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Denver/Kansas City game.  Last week, in a Thursday game, the Kansas City Chiefs lost a heartbreaker to the Oakland Raiders, 31-30.  The Chiefs were winning, 30-24, but succumbed on the game's final play, a 2-yard touchdown pass from Derek Carr to Michael Crabtree.  That was Kansas City's 2nd straight upset loss, as Pittsburgh stunned it, 19-13, here at Arrowhead 15 days ago.  So, the Chiefs are now 5-2 on the season.  Likewise, the Broncos also suffered their 2nd straight upset defeat, as they lost, 21-0, at the Chargers last weekend.  I expect a high-scoring game tonight, as .700 (or better) teams have gone 'over' the total 65.5% over the past 28 years, if they're off an upset loss, and scored 28+ points in that defeat.  Also, these two teams met twice last season, and both games went 'over' the total, by 17 and 5 points, respectively.  And since 2001, 11 of the 16 meetings here in Kansas City have gone 'over.'  Look for this game to sail 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Pittsburgh.   This Sunday night matchup features two teams with Playoff aspirations.  The Detroit Lions are 3-3, while the Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-2.  And I certainly have all the confidence in the Steelers, as they were my preseason pick (at 12-1 odds) to win this year's Super Bowl.  But this is a great spot to go against them as a road favorite at Detroit.  The Lions do come into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses, but gained an advantage by having last week off to rest, and re-group.  And rested underdogs off a loss have cashed over 57% vs. unrested foes off a win since 1991.  Likewise, in matchups between non-losing teams, it's been extremely profitable (67.5%) over the years to take a team off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. a foe off back to back SU/ATS wins, so that also bodes well for Jim Caldwell's crew on Sunday.  But the clincher for me is that Detroit has covered the pointspread by an average of 4.5 ppg this season, while the Steelers have failed to cover by an average of 0.85 ppg.  And home underdogs off a SU/ATS loss have cashed a staggering 63% of the time over the past 38 years if they also owned an average pointspread differential of +4.29 (or better).  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over the Buffalo Bills, as Oakland falls into 145-67, 23-0 and 63-18 ATS systems of mine, based on various season statistics.  The Raiders are sitting on a losing, 3-4 record, in no small part due to an injury suffered by QB Derek Carr earlier this season.  But Carr is healthy, and back under center now.  And he led the Raiders to a thrilling, last-second win last Thursday vs. division rival, Kansas City.  Oakland still has much work to do if it is to get back into the Playoff picture, so it needs to go into Buffalo and get the upset win.  I believe it will, as Oakland is 28-17-1 ATS its last 46 as road underdogs, while Buffalo is a wallet-busting 7-21 ATS at home off a win, including 1-9 ATS vs. non-winning teams.  Take the points with Oakland.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Cincinnati.  Last week, the Colts were blown out, 27-0, at home by Jacksonville, while Cincy lost, 29-14, at Pittsburgh.  That 27-0 defeat, though, has triggered my very best "Blowout Bounce-back" system, which is 138-61 ATS since 1980 -- and 5-0 already this season, including a win two weeks ago on the Cardinals over the Bucs after Arizona was blown out by 27 in Philly the previous week.  For the season, the Colts are 2-5, and are certainly in the league's lower tier so long as QB Andrew Luck remains sidelined.  But they generally rebounc off losses, as they're 3-1 ATS already this season off a loss, and 29-9 ATS off their last 38 defeats (including a perfect 7-0 ATS when getting more than 6 points)!  Finally, NFL teams also tend to react well to being shutout at home in their previous games, as they're 57-36-2 ATS in that situation since 1980, including 33-9 ATS vs. non-division foes if our team isn't getting 13+ points.  Take the Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 am, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  We played on the Browns last week, as a home underdog vs. Tennessee, and got the cash when Cleveland fell, 12-9, in overtime, as a 6-point dog.  This week, the Browns have been installed as an even bigger underdog vs. the Vikings, in this early game played in London, England.  In the NFL, it's extremely dangerous to lay this many points away from home.  Indeed, since 1995, NFL underdogs of +9 or more points have covered 61% of the time (107-69 ATS) at home, or on neutral fields, including 26-16 ATS if our underdog is (like Cleveland) winless on the season.  That doesn't bode well for Minnesota on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that the Vikings have covered just 32 of 90 when favored by 7+ points in the regular season.  Take Cleveland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:15 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over San Diego State.  Hawaii does come into this game off a 37-26 win over San Jose, but it failed to cover the spread in that game, and has dropped five straight to the number, overall.  But we'll step in and take the points with Hawaii, as it falls into an 85% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off 5+ ATS losses.  Also, the Rainbow Warriors are a solid 22-9 ATS as a home dog (or PK) off a win, while the Aztecs are a money-burning 8-15 ATS as a favorite away from home vs. .401 (or better) teams.  Take Hawaii.

At 10:45 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Arizona State.  USC is 6-2 this season, but hasn't made many friends in Vegas, as it's covered just once (vs. Stanford), and enters this game on a six-game ATS losing streak.  Arizona State, on the other hand, is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS its last four (all Pac-12 Conference games), including upset wins in each of its two previous games (as 17.5 and 9.5-point underdogs).  But those last two upset wins set up our play on Saturday, as NCAA teams off back to back upset wins as an underdog of more than 9 points are a poor 36.6% ATS since 1980.  Additionally, USC is a strong 22-9 ATS on the road off a straight-up loss.  Take Southern Cal minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves have won and covered four in a row in this series.  But they were favored by more than 14 points in the three previous games.  It's a much different story for this game, as the point spread indicates the game should be very competitive.  And College Football teams have covered just 36% since 1995 if they were playing on the road vs. a revenge-minded team which had lost SU/ATS each of the three previous games, if our road team was favored by more than 10 points in those three games, but is not favored by 5+ points for the current game.  New Mexico St. also had last week off, so it will be playing this game with an extra week of rest.  And New Mexico State has cashed 80% when playing with rest, if it was off a win, and its foe was unrested.  Take New Mexico State.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over Mississippi State.  Both teams are 5-2 on the season, and come into this game off SEC Conference wins.  The Bulldogs blew out Kentucky, 45-7, at home last week, while Texas A&M upset Florida two weeks ago, 19-17, as a 3.5-point underdog.  The Aggies' extra week off is a big factor for me in this game, as Texas A&M falls into one of my best College Football "Rest" angles, which is 101-45 ATS since 1990.  Moreover, since 1980, the Aggies are a strong 18-3 SU and 14-5 ATS at home when playing with rest vs. an unrested foe.  And they're also 14-2 ATS at home as an underdog (or PK) vs. conference foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take the points with the home underdog Aggies.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers + the points over Southern Miss.  The Blazers lost at Charlotte in their last game, 25-24, as a 9.5-point favorite.  But they now fall into a bounce-back system of mine which is 90-36 ATS.  Take the points with UAB.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over TCU.  Both teams come into this big game with strong records.  Iowa State is 5-2 (3-1 in Conference), and has won and covered its last three games.  Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have opened the season with seven straight wins (4-0 in Conference), and held their last two opponents (Kansas, Kansas State) to 6 points, combined!  Unfortunately, NCAA teams have been awful on the road if they held each of their previous two opponents to 6 points or less, and their opponent is off a SU/ATS win.  Since November 1981, our road teams have covered just 19 of 66 in this role.  Iowa State's also 7-2 its last 9 as home dogs.  Finally, 7-0 (or better) teams are a wallet-busting 18% ATS since 1990 as road favorites of more than 6 points vs. foes that have both a winning SU and winning ATS record.  Take Iowa State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Washington.  The Huskies lost for the first time this season in their last game -- a 13-7 defeat at Arizona State -- after opening the 2017 campaign with six straight wins.  Off that first defeat, we'll fade the Huskies, as they fall into negative 45-94 and 22-65 ATS "Bubble Burst" systems of mine that fade certain teams off their initial loss of the season (following 5+ wins to open the year).  Even worse:  the Huskies are a woeful 6-23 ATS their last 29 home games priced from -9.5 to -21 points.  Take UCLA.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Penn State.  The schedule-maker certainly didn’t do the Nittany Lions any favors when it gave them back to back games against Michigan and Ohio State.  And even worse for Penn State is the fact that Ohio State had last week off, so it will be very well-rested for this game against the undefeated Nittany Lions.  I love Ohio State to blow out Penn State, as coach Urban Meyer’s teams have been terrific when playing with rest.  They’ve gone 27-8 in this situation, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. undefeated opponents.  Additionally, the Buckeyes have been on quite a roll over their last three games.  They covered all three, while scoring 56, 62 and 56 points, and winning by an average of 48.67 points per game.  And College Football teams that scored 168 or more points over their three previous games, combined, have gone 56-24 ATS in the regular season since 1998.  Take the Buckeyes minus the points.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over Pitt, as UVa falls into an 161-87 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses (Virginia was blown out as a 7-point favorite last week, at home, by Boston College).  Take UVa to rebound off that defeat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Louisville.  The Cardinals earned their biggest win of the season last week when they upset the Florida State Seminoles, as a 6.5-point underdog.  But off that win, I expect a big letdown on Saturday in Winston-Salem against a Demon Deacons squad has lost its three previous games.  Notwithstanding its recent performance, Wake Forest is still 4-3 on the season, and needs to win two of its final five games to gain bowl eligibility.  Wake's schedule is difficult down the stretch, so winning this game is critical.  For technical support, Louisville falls into a negative 129-200 ATS situation that goes against road teams off upset wins as 6-point (or greater) underdogs.  And the Demon Deacons also fall into 72-32 and 88-29 ATS Conference revenge angles of mine (the Deacons do play with revenge, as they lost 44-12 to the Cardinals last season).  Finally, the Cardinals are a horrid 0-11 ATS the past 17 years off an upset win when not getting 3+ points!  Yikes.  Take Wake Forest.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the WVU Mountaineers + the points over Oklahoma State, as WVU falls into a 30-0 ATS system of mine which plays on certain underdogs +7 or more points.  Take WVU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Boston College.  The Eagles come into this game off back to back wins, and five straight covers.  Meanwhile, the Seminoles are a shocking 2-4 SU and 0-5-1 ATS.  But I like Florida State to get the $$$ on Friday.  Since 1980, teams off 5 ATS defeats are 55-29 ATS vs. foes off 3+ ATS wins.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Toledo.  The Cardinals come into tonight's game on a 4-game losing streak.  And they're also 0-4-1 ATS their last five games (failing to cover by an average of 23.1 ppg).  Meanwhile, Toledo's off 3 straight wins, and two straight covers.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with the Rockets.  But Ball State falls into a 179-120 ATS system of mine which plays on certain underdogs off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Likewise, Mid-American Conference home underdogs have cashed 63.4% if they are off back to back SU/ATS losses, and their opponent is off a win.  And College Football teams have won 64.1% the last 29 years if they failed to cover the pointspread by more than 15 points in each of their three previous games.  Take Ball State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New England.  These two teams met in last year's Super Bowl, and the Falcons absolutely blew the game, as they were up 28-3, but lost 34-28.  We had a big play on New England in that game, but we'll switch gears and take the points with the Falcons in this re-match.  Certainly, this is the most important game on the Falcons' schedule this season, as they no doubt want to avenge that stunning defeat.  And I believe they'll get it, as they fall into a 19-0 ATS Playoff revenge system of mine (the same angle I used as a basis for my play earlier this season on the Houston Texans +13.5 over New England).  Also, underdogs have cashed 83% when playing an opponent off a win, which defeated them in the Super Bowl in the previous meeting between the two teams.  Even better for Atlanta:  it falls into 87-34 and 151-66 ATS "bounce-back" systems of mine that play on certain teams to rebound off upset losses (Atlanta lost as a 14-point favorite to Miami last week).  Finally, road teams that lost outright as favorites of -11.5 (or more points) are an awesome 88% ATS since 1986 vs. non-division foes, provided they weren't getting more than 7 points.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs are 6-0, and ranked #4 in the country (after starting the season unranked).  But TCU is 0-3 ATS this season when laying 8 or more points.  And it's also a horrid 0-10 ATS its last 10 games at home.  That doesn't bode well for laying this many points.  Also, Kansas happened to lose by 45 points last week at Iowa State.  But Big 12 teams generally bounce back off blowout losses by 45+ points, as they've cashed 63% since over the past 21 years.  Finally, undefeated teams, with a record of 5-0 (or better) are an awful 35% ATS since 1980 at home vs. foes that failed to cover the spread by 20+ points in their previous game.  Take Kansas + the points.  NCAA Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans + the points over Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish have been installed as a home favorite vs. the Trojans, and I can’t pass up taking the points with USC.  First, Pac-12 single-digit underdogs are a super 152-107 ATS vs. non-conference foes since 1980, so that bodes well for USC.  Also, Southern Cal has gone 1-6 ATS in its seven games this season, including 0-5 ATS its last five, while Notre Dame has won and covered four straight.  Now, on the surface, that may not seem like a good thing.  But pointspread failures also create value and opportunity, and that’s the situation here, on the road at Notre Dame.  Indeed,  teams off 4 or more pointspread losses are a super 73.3% ATS since 1980 vs. non-conference foes off 4 (or more) pointspread wins, including 9-0-1 ATS the last 10 when the game was competitively-priced with a pointspread less than 7 points.  Finally, the Fighting Irish are an awful 19-41 ATS as home favorites vs. winning opposition, including 4-18 ATS vs. foes with a losing pointspread record.  Take Southern California + the points.  NCAA Non-Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks plus the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars shocked Troy State last week, 19-8, as a 19-point underdog, to improve their record to 2-4 on the season.  And off that win, South Alabama has been installed as a favorite vs. the 3-3 Warhawks.  Unfortunately, College Football teams generally suffer letdowns following upsets as a 14-point (or greater) underdog the previous week, and especially when matched up against .500 (or better) opponents, as they've cashed just 40% since 1980.  Even worse:  the Jaguars have covered just 1 of their last 10 at home when favored by 4+ points.  Take Louisiana Monroe.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over North Texas.  The Mean Green come into this game off back to back upset wins (over Texas San Antonio and Southern Miss), which moved their record to 4-2 on the season.  But those two upsets have placed North Texas in a negative system of mine which has covered just 31% ATS since 1980 (including 0-9 ATS its last 9).  What we want to do is go against any road underdog off back to back upset wins, if it's now playing a conference foe off a double-digit conference win.  With the Owls, indeed, off a 58-28 blowout win over Old Dominion, we'll lay the points with Florida Atlantic on Saturday.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State.  Kentucky is off to a great start this season, as it's won five of its six games, with its only loss by a single point to the Florida Gators.  And the Wildcats led by 13 points in the 4th quarter vs. Florida, but gave up two late touchdowns (including the last one with just 43 seconds left) to succumb, 28-27.  With that as a backdrop, it's hard to pass up taking double-digits with Kentucky, given that the Bulldogs are an awful 14-25 ATS as a home favorite of -10 (or more) points, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a win by 6+ points.  Even better:  Kentucky had last week off, so it will be well-rested, while the Bulldogs had to play a game vs. BYU.  And rested SEC Conference teams are a super 88-60 ATS on the road vs. non-rested conference foes, including 37-19 ATS when catching 8+ points.  Finally, the Wildcats fall into a 101-41 ATS System of mine which plays on certain rested teams.  Take Kentucky.  SEC Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on Virginia minus the points over Boston College.  The Eagles upset Louisville, 45-42, as an 18.5-point underdog last week.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams off upset wins the previous week, as an underdog of 14+ points, are an awful 40% ATS since 1980 vs. .500 (or better) opponents.  With Virginia 5-1 on the season, including 4-0 SU/ATS its last four, we'll lay the points with the Cavaliers.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Akron.  The Zips pulled off a huge upset last weekend when they went into Western Michigan and won outright, 14-13, as a 12.5-point underdog.  That also was Akron's 3rd straight win (and fourth straight cover).  But we'll fade Akron at Toledo on this Saturday, as underdogs of +3 (or more) points, off an outright win as a double-digit underdog, and on a 4-game (or better) ATS win streak, have covered just 28% over the past 38 years vs. .666 (or better) foes.  Meanwhile, Toledo's a perfect 6-0 ATS at home vs. foes off upset wins.  And Akron's a horrid 0-10 ATS off an upset win, if its W/L percentage was .500 (or better).  Take Toledo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over Idaho.  After struggling in their first four games, where they went 1-3 straight-up, and 0-4 ATS (failing to cover by 21.0 ppg), the Missouri Tigers have cashed the last two weeks in Vegas, as they lost again straight-up, but snuck inside the number vs. Kentucky and Georgia.  So, the fact that Idaho is coming into town (rather than an SEC Conference foe) must be a welcome sight for the Tigers, as they no doubt would love to snap their 5-game losing streak.  Missouri has been installed as a double-digit home favorite, and it is in its best pointspread role on Saturday.  Since 1997, Missouri is a perfect 13-0 SU/ATS at home when favored by 13+ points, if it lost its previous game!  And it's won those games by an average margin of 30.69 ppg, and covered by an average of 9.64.  Lay the points with Mizzou.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Colorado State.  The Lobos were shut out last week by Fresno State, 38-0, as a 2.5-point favorite.  That was by far the worst game the Lobos have played this season.  Indeed, they had covered the pointspread in each of their three games prior to that upset loss.  The good news is that College Football teams generally bounce back from such poor games, and especially if they were a reliable team against the spread theretofore.  For technical support, consider that home teams off losses, that failed to cover by 35+ points in that loss, are 72.2% ATS since 1980 if they also have a winning ATS record on the season.  Take the Lobos.  Mountain West Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs + the points over Western Kentucky.  Old Dominion is 2-4 SU and has dropped its last 4 games (including a 35-3 blowout at Marshall last week), while the Hilltoppers are on a 3-game win streak.  But in Vegas, Western Kentucky has burned just as much money as Old Dominion, as each team is just 1-5 against the spread.  We'll take the points with Old Dominion, as home teams have covered a fantastic 79% of conference games since 1980 if they lost their three previous games, and failed to cover their most recent game by more than 12 points, while their opponent won their three previous games, but owned a losing ATS record on the season.  Take Old Dominion.  NCAA Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Kansas City.  We played against the Chiefs last week, and got the $$$ with Pittsburgh.  And we'll play against them once again, tonight, in Oakland, as the Chiefs fall into negative 115-206, 208-281, 126-20, 156-240 and 67-147 ATS systems of mine.  Additionally, Oakland comes into tonight's game off an upset loss last week vs. the Chargers, and four straight losses overall (both straight-up and ATS).  Now, on the surface, this may not seem like a good thing.  But consider that home teams are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursday nights off back to back losses, if they were upset in their previous game, and now face a division rival.  Moreover, the Raiders are 25-14-1 ATS as AFC West division dogs off back to back losses, including 14-2 ATS when priced from +2 to + 6 points (and 9-0 ATS if their foe is also off a loss).  Finally, teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have cashed 67.9% the past 18 years if they won at least 10 games in the previous regular season, while teams with a current W/L percentage better than .300 have cashed 63.2% at home off 4 SU/ATS losses.  Take the points with the Raiders.  AFC West Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Indianapolis.  The Titans were upset in each of their last two games -- 57-14 at Houston, and 16-10, at Miami.  But they now return home to take on the Indianapolis Colts, who upended San Francisco last week, 26-23, as a 1-point underdog.  And one of the things I love to do is take favorites of more than 6 points on Monday Night Football that return home off back to back road games.  These teams have cashed 72% since 1980.  Even worse for the Colts:  they're a poor 35.7% ATS off an upset win vs. foes off an upset loss.  Take Tennessee minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs have played superb football this season, as they're 5-0 SU and ATS (covering by an average of 9.1 ppg), including an opening week win at New England.  Pittsburgh, in contrast, has had an up-and-down season, as it's 3-2 SU, but 2-3 ATS (failing to cover by an average of 5.3 ppg), including a head-scratching home loss to Jacksonville last week.  In that game, The Steelers were favored by 7.5, but lost 30-9 to the Jaguars, so they failed to cover the spread by a whopping 28.5 points.  For the season, the Chiefs, then, have a pointspread differential of +14.4 compared to the Steelers.  But this strong relative success sets up our play, as the Steelers fall into a 79-33-2 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with a poor pointspread differential, as well as a 21-0 ATS subset of that general angle (which hasn't lost since 1992).  Finally, the Steelers are 8-0-1 ATS when priced between +7 and -3 points after giving up 28+ points in their previous game.  Take the Steelers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Rams were upset at home last week by Seattle, and fell to 3-2 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Jaguars upset Pittsburgh, 30-9, as a 7.5-point underdog in their previous game, and also have a 3-2 record this year.  But that upset win has set up Jacksonville in several negative systems of mine, with records of 48-92 and 49-91 ATS since 1980.  Even worse for Jacksonville:  it's covered just 9 of 28 off upset wins since 2008, including five of 18 at home.  Finally, .600 (or better) teams off upset losses have cashed 60.3% over the last 38 years vs. .600 (or better) foes off upset wins.  Take the Rams + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over Tampa Bay.  The Cardinals have started the season 2-3, and were blown out by 27 points in their last game by Philadelphia, 34-7.  But one of the things I like to do in the NFL is play on home underdogs off blowout losses.  Indeed, we saw on Monday night the Chicago Bears rebound off their 21-point loss to Green Bay to cover the number as a home dog vs. Minnesota.  And, since 1980, teams off a loss by more than 20 points have gone 74-49 ATS as home underdogs if their opponent is also off a straight-up and against the spread loss.  Also, I don’t believe Tampa Bay’s performance warrants that it be favored on the road.  After all, it’s lost its last three games against the spread, and is just 2-2 straight-up this season.  And the Buccaneers have covered just four of their last 18 games when favored on the road.  Meanwhile, Arizona is 31-17 ATS its last 48 as home underdogs.  Take the Cardinals.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Houston.  It's true that the Browns are winless on the season.  But winless teams often confer value, and that's the case on this Sunday.  Indeed, since 1980, winless teams, with an 0-5 (or worse) record, are 63% ATS vs. foes that have a win percentage better than .250, provided our winless team didn't cover the pointspread in its previous game.  With the Browns off a SU/ATS loss to the Jets last week to fall to 0-5 this season, we'll grab the points in this game.  Take Cleveland.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Green Bay/Minnesota game.  With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Green Bay Packers have gone 'over' the total more often than not.  But the one situation where they've consistently gone 'under' has been on the road vs. division rivals.  And especially when the over/under line has been between 40.5 and 45.5 points.  In that range, Green Bay has gone 'under' in 10 of 11 vs. NFC North rivals on the road.  Indeed, the last three games at Minnesota have all gone 'under' the total (with the games from the last two seasons also falling within our O/U range of 40.5 to 45.5 points).  Last season, Rodgers passed for a pedestrian 213 yards, and threw one interception in a 17-14 defeat.  Green Bay did win the previous two seasons (30-13 and 24-21), but neither game was particularly high-scoring, and each also went 'under' the posted total.  I love the 'under once again in this game, as it falls into an 87-53 Totals system of mine.  Also, Minnesota has gone 'under' the total in 16 of 20 games off a win, including 12-1 'under' vs. foes with a W/L percentage of .571 (or better).  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At midnight, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors minus the points over San Jose St.  Hawaii was upset by Nevada, 35-21, as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday.  And that loss extended Hawaii's SU/ATS losing streak to four games.  But it's a super 63% ATS over the past 20 years off an upset defeat, while San Jose is a poor 29% ATS vs. foes off upset losses.  Hawaii also falls into a 102-64 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain teams off back to back ATS losses.  Finally, Hawaii will have a big advantage on the ground, as it averages 5.7 ypg (against foes that give up 4.9 ypr), while San Jose only rushes for 3.2 ypr (against a schedule of opponents that give up 4.0 ypr).  And losing teams, favored by double-digits, that rush for at least 5.5 yards per carry have cashed 68% over the past 21 years vs. conference foes that don't rush for more than 3.5 yards per carry.  Take the Rainbow Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins over Arizona.  Both of these Pac-12 schools are 3-2, with each coming into this game off wins over Colorado.  UCLA played the Buffaloes two weeks ago (and, thus, are rested), while Arizona upset the Buffaloes in Boulder last Saturday.  Unfortunately for Arizona, that upset win has triggered several negative systems of mine, with records of 23-90, 74-159 and 95-169.  Also, the Wildcats are a very poor 2-17 ATS off an upset win when not getting 7+ points, including 0-10 ATS vs. .600 (or worse) opponents.  Take UCLA.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Michigan State.  This is a big letdown spot for the Spartans, who upset their rival -- the Michigan Wolverines -- in Ann Arbor last week, 14-10, as an 11-point underdog.  The Spartans are now 4-1 on the season, while Minnesota is 3-2 after its loss to Purdue last Saturday.  But .600 (or better) teams. off an upset win as a double-digit road underdog, are an awful 28% ATS on the road vs. foes off a loss since 1980.  The Spartans are also 0-6 ATS their last six as road favorites.  Take Minnesota.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans minus the points over Utah.  Both teams come into this huge Pac-12 affair with one loss.  The Utes fell by 3, at home, to Stanford, while USC lost at Washington St.  Stanford is the only common opponent of these two teams, and the disparate results are illuminating.  Indeed, USC blew out the Cardinal in Week 2, 42-24, as a 3.5-point favorite (and outgained them by 181 yards), while Utah lost last week, 23-20, as a 3-point underdog (and was outgained by 2 yards).  The Trojans do come into this game off a win, however, as they bombed Oregon State, 38-10, but failed to cover the 33-point spread.  I look for USC to register another blowout this week (and also cover the number), as the Trojans fall into a 64-24 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off pointspread defeats.  Moreover, USC is 10-1 ATS at home as a favorite of 17 or less points off an ATS loss, while Utah is 0-8 ATS vs. Conference foes off back to back ATS defeats.  Finally, it's certainly true that Utah is 4-0-1 ATS this season.  But Utah's unblemished ATS record works to create line value for USC.  And, unfortunately for Utah, Pac-12 road underdogs of +4 (or more) points are a poor 28% ATS over the past 22 years if they're undefeated ATS (at Game 4 forward).  Lay the points with USC.  Pac-12 Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on Louisiana Monroe minus the points over Georgia State.  The Warhawks are on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak after blowing out Texas State, 45-27, last week, as a 5.5-point road favorite.  And they topped 50 points in their two games before that, with wins over Coastal Carolina (51-43) and La Lafayette (56-50).  I won't step in front of this freight train, as home teams off 3 SU/ATS wins have cashed 61% since 1980 if they scored over 150 points combined in their three previous games.  Take Louisiana Monroe.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Charlotte.  The 49ers are winless this season (0-6), while Western Kentucky is 3-2, including SU wins in its last two games.  But neither team has had much success in Vegas, as the 49ers are 2-4 ATS (covering their last two games), while the Hilltoppers are 0-5 ATS.  But I love Western Kentucky to get its first ATS win of the year, as home teams off a win have cashed 71.7% since 1980 vs. winless teams with an 0-6 (or worse) record, if our winless team is off a pointspread win.  Also, Western Kentucky is 16-3 ATS in Conference games off back to back wins, if the pointspread was less than 30 points.  Take the Hilltoppers.  Conference USA Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Auburn.  LSU has disappointed this season, with surprising losses to both Mississippi State and Troy State, while Auburn has played well, with its only defeat being a narrow 14-6 loss to defending Champ, Clemson.  But Auburn's three SEC victories (Missouri, Mississippi State, Ole Miss) were against teams that currently have a combined conference record of 1-7.  And it's hard to make a case for Auburn as a big road favorite, given that it's lost its last 8 games at LSU.  I really liked that LSU shook off its upset loss to Troy State with a 1-point road win last week at Florida (though LSU failed to cover the closing line of -1.5, and hasn't covered since its opening week shutout of BYU).  Coach Ed Orgeron didn't hide the fact that the coaching staff had meetings to fix problems on the staff, and one of the things that came out of the sessions was Orgeron's agreement to not micro-manage his coordinators.  Offensive coordinator Matt Canada was given freedom to run his full offense, and the team benefited last week.  There were also two players-only meetings, and the LSU team played noticeably with more toughness and energy vs. Florida than it did to start the season.  LSU falls into 52-25, 102-64 and 64-24 ATS Systems of mine that play on certain teams on ATS losing streaks.  Don't be surprised if there's an upset in Baton Rouge on Saturday.  Take the points.  SEC GAME OF THE WEEK.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Central Michigan.  The Chippewas leveled their record at 3-3 after upsetting Ohio, 26-23, as a 10-point road underdog last week, while Toledo moved its mark to 4-1 after getting by Eastern Michigan, at home, 20-15.  But it's hard for teams to pull off back to back upset wins, and I look for CMU to suffer a letdown on Saturday.  For technical support, consider that home dogs have covered just 34% since 1980 off an outright win as a double-digit road underdog, if they're matched up against .800 (or better) foes.  Even worse for CMU:  it's 0-9 ATS as an underdog of +6 or more points off an upset win.  Take Toledo.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Virginia, as UNC falls into a 67% ATS system of mine.  What we want to do is go against any team away from home off 3 ATS wins, if it's up against an opponent off 3 ATS losses, and the line is less than 11 points.  And that's the situation today, as Virginia is off 3 ATS wins, while UNC is off 3 ATS losses.  Take North Carolina.  NCAA Roadkill.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats plus the points over TCU.  Last week, the Wildcats fell by 6, in overtime, to Texas, as a 5-point underdog, and are now 3-2 on the season.  The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, are undefeated, at 5-0, and have been installed as a road favorite in Manhattan vs. K-State.  However, TCU's been a very weak favorite of late, including 8-23 ATS since 2011 when priced as a favorite of less than 14 points.  And Kansas State has been terrific as a home dog, with a 28-16 record since 1988, including 11-1 ATS off a SU/ATS loss.   Moreover, undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record, have cashed a paltry 31% since 1980 as road favorites of -2.5 (or more) points vs. .600 (or better) teams off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the points with Kansas State on Saturday.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over South Carolina.  In their last game, the Volunteers were blanked, 41-0, by Georgia, here at home.  The Gamecocks, meanwhile blew out Arkansas, 48-22, in Columbia last Saturday.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with South Carolina, given that they're 4-2 SU/ATS, while Tennessee is just 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS on the season.  But favorites off a 25-point (or worse) defeat have cashed a whopping 70.7% over the past 38 years vs. conference foes off a 25-point (or better) victory.  But that's not the best part.  If our favored team also has a .571 (or better) win percentage, then our 70.7% ATS system zooms to a nearly-perfect 14-1, 93% ATS.  Also, .500 (or better) teams have gone 71% ATS at home since 1980 off a home shutout loss (and 78% in Conference games)!  I look for the Vols to redeem themselves off their 41-0 home defeat.  Lay the points with Tennessee.  High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Minnesota.  Last week, both the Vikings and Bears lost, as Minnesota was upset by Detroit, 14-7, while Chicago lost, 35-14, to Green Bay.  Chicago's now 1-3, so coach John Fox has decided to make a change at signal caller.  Thus, the Mitch Trubisky Era will start tonight at Soldier Field, and  I love Chicago in a home dog role, as it falls into a 136-61 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off losses by 20+ points.  Even worse for Minnesota:  .500 (or better) teams off an upset loss have cashed just 35.4% on Monday nights the past 38 seasons.  And the Bears are 25-7 ATS as a home dog (or PK) off a loss by 6+ points, if the Bears' win pct was less than .400.  Also, NFC North Division underdogs have cashed 64 of 107 division games off a loss.  Finally, the Vikings are a woeful 4-16 ATS at Chicago when not getting more than 3 points, including 0-9 ATS if the Vikings weren't off a SU/ATS win.  Take Chicago.  MNF Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles Rams/Seattle Seahawks game.  The Rams have been a surprising offensive team this season, as they're averaging 35.5 points per game (after averaging just 14 ppg last season).  But the four teams that Los Angeles has played this year are giving up, on average, 26 points per game.  Seattle, on the other hand, will be the best defense the Rams have faced yet, as it's giving up just 19.25 ppg.  Over the previous seven seasons, 11 of the 14 meetings between these teams have gone 'under' the total.  And the 'under' also falls into a super 86-53 Totals system of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Baltimore/Oakland game, as it falls into a great Totals system of mine which has cashed 73.3% since 1980.  Additionally, Oakland has gone 'over' the total 21-6-2 in its last 29 home games, including 6-0 its last six, and also a perfect 10-0-2 'over' when priced from 40.5 to 44 points.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Miami/Tennessee game, as it falls into 59-27, 108-69 and 152-102 Totals systems of mine.  It's true that Miami's offense struggled last week, as it was shutout, 20-0, by New Orleans, and is averaging just 8.3 ppg.  But Miami should find the sledding easier against Tennessee.  After all, the Titans gave up more points (57) last week than any other team has given up in almost 5 years!  And that was against a Texans team which had averaged just 17.6 ppg coming into the game.  So, when viewed in that context, it was the most points any team had given up in 21 years vs. a team that averaged less than 18 ppg!  And, for additional technical support, consider that NFL teams (like Miami) have gone 'over' the total 70.2% since 1980 if they don't average more than 10 ppg on offense, and have gone 'under' the total in their 3 previous games.  Finally, seven of Miami's last eight home games, and nine of Tennessee's last 12 road games have sailed 'over' the total.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Last week, the Bills upset the previously undefeated Atlanta Falcons, 23-17, as an 8 point underdog.  That moved the Bills' record to 3-1 on the season.  But off that upset win, I look for a letdown in Cincy on Sunday.  Indeed, since 1981, .680 (or better) teams off an upset win on the road as an 8-point (or greater) underdog have cashed an atrocious 15% of the time on the road.  That doesn't bode well for the Bills on Sunday.  And neither does the fact that Buffalo is 1-9 ATS as an underdog of 6 points or less off a win as a dog of more than 3 points.  Finally, Cincy is 27-10 ATS when priced between +3 and -9.5 at home vs. a foe off an upset win, including 7-0 ATS if such foe was a dog of more than 6 points in its previous game.  Take the Bengals.  NFL Roadkill Play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the New York Giants.  It's absolutely correct that the Chargers have burned money this season, as they're 0-4 straight-up, and 0-3-1 ATS.  But their three ATS losses came at home.  However, it's on the road where the Chargers have made friends in Vegas, as they're 44-22-5 ATS their last 71 when not laying 2+ points, including 29-6-4 ATS if the Chargers were not off a SU/ATS win!  Take the Chargers.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the New York Jets.  Last week, we played on the Jets as a home underdog vs. Jacksonville, and were rewarded with a 23-20 overtime victory.  That also was New York’s 2nd straight upset win as a home underdog.  Unfortunately, now the Jets go back on the road where they are 0-2 straight-up and against-the-spread this season.  And while it’s true that the Browns were blown out at home by 24 points last week, and have yet to win a game this season, consider that teams off back to back losses are an awesome 77-49 ATS vs. foes off back to back upset wins, including 30-12 ATS at home vs. non-division foes.  Moreover, home teams have also cashed 71% since 1980 off a home loss by 24 or more points when matched up against an opponent off back to back wins.  Take Cleveland.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles, as Arizona falls into a 67% ATS system of mine, which plays on certain road underdogs that didn't cover the pointspread in their previous game.  It's true that Philly is 3-1 on the season, but Arizona is a sensational 44-26 ATS vs. .750 (or better) teams, including 40-22 ATS as an underdog.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks over the Washington State Cougars.  Mike Leach's Cougars upset previously undefeated Southern Cal last week, 30-27, as a 4.5-point underdog.  Not surprisingly, teams that pull off such upsets generally have letdowns in their next game, and especially when going into revenge.  Indeed, since 1980, teams off home upset wins over previously undefeated opponents have covered just 27.4% on the road when matched up against revenge-minded foes, if priced between -17 and +3.5 points!  Last year, Washington State upset Oregon, 51-33, in Pullman, so the Ducks will be looking to avenge that upset defeat here, at Autzen Stadium, on Saturday.  The Ducks are also a super 23-7 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. conference foes, and not laying more than 20 points, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were favored by more than 2 points in that upset defeat the previous season.  Take Oregon.  NCAA Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over Fresno St.  The Spartans come into this home game off 4 straight losses (both SU and ATS), and are now 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the season.  They've also failed to cover the spread by 14.58 ppg this season.  But the good news for San Jose is that it's back home on Saturday, where it's gone 2-1 ATS this season.  Also, home dogs off 4 straight ATS losses, that have an average pointspread differential of -14 ppg (or worse), are an awesome 72% ATS the past 33 years vs. .500 (or worse) opponents.  Take the points with San Jose.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over the Alabama Crimson Tide.  Alabama has certainly impressed over the past two weeks, with back to back blowout wins over Vanderbilt (59-0), as a 19-point favorite, and Ole Miss (66-3), as a 29-point favorite.  But we will play against the Tide on Saturday, as undefeated road favorites of -11 (or more) points, with a 4-0 (or better) record, are a dreadful 0-19 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins, if our road favorite's average margin of victory for the season was 28.8 ppg (or better).  Take the Aggies.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles + the points over Texas San Antonio.  After winning (and covering) each of their first three games this season, the Golden Eagles were upset at home, 43-28, by North Texas last week.  Meanwhile, the Roadrunners blew out Texas St., 44-14, as a 13.5 point favorite.  We'll take the points with Southern Miss, as winning teams have cashed 68.1% in regular season conference games over the past 33 years off a conference loss in which they failed to cover by 16+ points, if they're now double-digit dogs against a foe off a win, in which that foe covered the spread by 16+ points.  Take Southern Miss.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Colorado State.  Utah State comes into this game off back to back impressive wins.  The Aggies routed San Jose 61-10 two weeks ago, and then blew out BYU 40-24 last Friday.  I love playing on home underdogs that can score, and the Aggies certainly fit the bill as they're averaging 34.4 ppg through their first five games.  And, since 1980, home dogs of more than 7 points that average 32+ ppg after at least 5 games, and are off momentum-building back to back wins, have cashed 72% (including 13-1 ATS the past 4 seasons).  Take the Aggies. Mountain West Dog of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Maryland.  Last week, the Buckeyes shut out Rutgers, in Piscataway, 56-0.  I won't step in front of Urban Meyer's men, here, at home, as College Football teams off a 33-point (or better) shutout road win are 38-15 ATS in the regular season vs. conference foes.  Take Ohio State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Purdue.  The Gophers lost for the first time this season last week when they fell, 31-24, at home to Maryland, as a 13.5-point favorite.  But I look for Minny to bounce back on Saturday, as .600 (or better) single-digit road underdogs have cashed 71.4% in conference games since 1980, if they lost as a double-digit home favorite the week before.  Moreover, Purdue's covered just 31% over the past 38 years vs. winning Big 10 Conference foes off an upset loss.  Take the points with Minnesota.  NCAA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes + the points over Northern Illinois.  The Huskies covered the pointspread for the 4th straight time last week when they fell by just six points to San Diego State (as a 9.5-point underdog).  Unfortunately for Northern Illinois, its 4-0 ATS record sets it up in a very poor situation this weekend.  Since 1980, teams off a pointspread win in Game 4, with an undefeated ATS record thru their first 4 games, are an awful 103-147 (41% ATS) in Conference games at Game 5 of the season.  I look for Kent State to sneak in under this inflated number.  Take the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs are 4-0 on the season following their upset win two weeks ago in Stillwater, where they shocked Oklahoma State, 44-31, as a 9.5-point underdog.  This week, they'll have another high-octane offense with which to contend, as WVU has scored 56, 59 and 56 points in its last three games (all wins by 22+ points).  We'll grab the points with the Mountaineers, as teams that scored 169+ points in their three previous games are an awesome 70.1% ATS in the regular season since 1998.  Take WVU.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over Tulsa.  The Green Wave haven't had many winning seasons over the years (just 1 over the past 14 seasons, in fact), but are 2-2 thus far.  In contrast, Tulsa's won 9 of its past 14 seasons, but is off to a 1-4 start.  So, even though Tulane has not been favored in any of the 12 meetings over the past 12 seasons, and has lost 11 of those 12 games, it has been installed as the favorite this year.  One factor in Tulane's favor is that it will be playing with rest, as it had last week off following its win two weeks ago vs. Army.  And Tulane falls into a super 99-45 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested, revenge-minded teams not favored by more than a touchdown.  Also, the Green Wave are a fantastic 21-9 ATS as a home favorite, priced from -3 to -7 points.  Lay it.  NCAA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.