At 4 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Liberty.   The Flames come into this game off a 41-14 upset win over BYU, as a 7-point home dog.  Unfortunately, Arkansas has been strong at home vs. foes off upset wins, as it's gone 18-9 ATS.  And double-digit road dogs have cashed just 37% since 1980 off an upset win, if they covered the spread by 31+ points in their previous game, and their opponent was off back to back wins.  Lay the points with the Razorbacks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Tennessee.  It's often said that defense wins championships.  Of course, a lot of times people say things that sound good, but aren't actually true.  However, in football, it's absolutely true.  Defense does win championships.  And Georgia brings the better defense into this game.  It's giving up just 10.5 ppg, while Tennessee is allowing 21.0 ppg.  It's true that the Vols have the higher-scoring offense, as they're averaging 49.3 ppg, while Georgia is scoring 41.7 ppg.  We'll take Georgia in this match-up, as the team with the better defense has covered the spread 60% of the time in games between unbeaten teams with a 6-0 (or better) record.  And in these match-ups of unbeatens, teams with the lower-scoring offense have covered 63%.  And if a team has both the better defense, and the lower-scoring offense, they've covered 71%. Take Georgia minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our American Athletic Conf. Underdog of the Year is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Central Florida.  After losing a heartbreaker at home, 33-32, vs. Houston (the Cougars scored 2 TDs in the final two minutes to stun Memphis), the Tigers fell flat on the road the next two weeks.  They lost, 47-45, at East Carolina, and then fell by 10 points to Tulane, 38-28. But they're back home for this game, and have been installed as a home underdog vs. Central Florida.  Memphis is 17-9 ATS at home when not favored by more than 1 point, if it's off a loss, and its foe is off a SU/ATS win.  And UCF is a horrid 3-15 ATS as a road favorite, priced from -3 to -9.5 points, vs. conference foes.  Finally, Memphis falls into a 72-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home dogs against foes off a win.  Grab the points with the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over Syracuse.  Pat Narduzzi's men come into this home game off back to back road losses against North Carolina and Louisville.  But Pitt has been terrific at home off back to back losses, as it's 12-1 straight-up, and 11-2 ATS (with one of its two ATS losses by a mere half-point).  And the Panthers are 17-3 SU its last 20 meetings vs Syracuse, including 9-0-2 ATS when priced from +4 to -9 points.  Take the Panthers.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets + the points over Virginia Tech.  The Hokies have lost 5 straight games to fall to 2-6 on the season.  And one of those two wins was against FCS Wofford, where it was favored by 39 points.  Going back further, we find that the Hokies have gone 12-21 ATS their last 33, and 19-37 ATS their last 57 vs revenge-minded foes.  With Georgia Tech, indeed, playing with revenge from a 26-17 loss last season, we'll take the points with Georgia Tech.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane + the points over Tulane.  Tulane is 7-1 (.875) on the season.  But Tulsa has been stellar vs. .777 (or better) foes when not laying more than 3 points, as it's 10-0 ATS.  And the Golden Hurricane are 14-4-1 ATS when dressed up as an underdog.  Meanwhile, Tulane is a poor 11-21 ATS on the road off back to back wins.  Grab the points with Tulsa.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Charlotte.  This match-up has an historic footnote.  Last week, the Hilltoppers were upset by North Texas, 40-13, as a 10-point favorite, while Charlotte upset Rice, 56-23, as a 15.5-point underdog.  So, Western Kentucky failed to cover by 37 points, while Charlotte covered by 48.5 (for a combined differential of 85.5 points).  And that 85.5-point relative point spread differential for the two teams' previous game is the 7th-highest since 1980!  Unfortunately, teams that covered the spread by 39+ points in their previous game are a miserable 0-16 ATS when priced from +10 to +23.5 points.  Lay the points with Western Kentucky.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over North Carolina.  The Cavaliers lost last season to North Carolina, 59-39, in Chapel Hill.  We'll take the Cavaliers here, at home, as they’re 37-17 ATS when playing with revenge at home, if the point spread was 8 or less points.  Even better, Virginia lost in overtime to Miami last week, here at home.  And home underdogs off a home overtime game where they didn't win SU/ATS have gone 37-19 ATS.  Finally, North Carolina blew out Pitt last week, 48-34.  But the Tar Heels are a dismal 4-16 ATS off a conference win, including 0-8 ATS when laying more than 6 points, and 1-11 ATS on the road. Grab the points with Virginia.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Oregon State.  The Beavers and Huskies are both 6-2 on the season, and 3-2 in Pac-12 play, and need to win to stay alive in the race for the conference title.  Oregon State has not had any success on the road late in the season, as it's 0-21 straight-up, at Game 9 forward when playing on the road, including 0-6 ATS when not getting more than 8 points.  That doesn't bode well for the Beavers tonight.  Nor does the fact that it's 1-9 SU/4-6 ATS the last 10 meetings vs. Washington.  Finally, Washington is 18-8 ATS at home when favored by 13 or less points, including 7-0 ATS vs. foes that covered the spread by 10+ points in their previous game.  Lay the points with the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats + the points over Buffalo.  This game will go a long way toward determining the MAC Conference's East division crown.  Buffalo is on top with a 4-0 record, while Ohio sits at 3-1 entering this pivotal contest.  The Bulls currently own a 5-game win streak, while Ohio is also playing well, with its win streak at three games.  We'll grab the points with the home underdog Bobcats, as the home team is 19-4 straight-up in this series, and 15-7 ATS, including 7-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Even better:  the Bobcats are 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of +1.5 (or more) points if they won their previous game.  Take Ohio U.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Michigan State.  Last season, Michigan lost just once in the regular season, and it was to Mel Tucker's Spartans, 37-33.  Kenneth Walker rushed for 197 yards and 5 touchdowns in the game last season.  But Walker is now wearing a Seahawks uniform, so MSU's ground attack has sputtered this season (3.6 ypr).  Michigan's 10-4 ATS its last 14 home games vs. Big 10 Conference rivals, when laying 6+ points.  And, in his NCAA career, coach Jim Harbaugh's teams have gone 13-5 ATS when favored by -6 (or more) points, and playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Wake Forest.  The Cards come into this game off back to back double digit wins (and also back to back double-digit covers).  And they also play with revenge from a 3-point loss to the Demon Deacons last season.  We'll grab the points with the home dog, as it falls into a 90-41 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back covers by 10+ points.  Even better:  Wake Forest is a wallet-busting 22-38-2 ATS as a favorite vs. revenge-minded foes, including 1-11 ATS vs. foes that won their previous game by 7+ points.  Take Louisville + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Florida Hurricanes minus the points over Virginia.  The Cavaliers upset Georgia Tech, 16-9, in their previous game, and are now 3-4 on the season. Miami is also 3-4 after getting blown out, 45-21, by Duke.  Today, the 'Canes will turn to Jake Garcia as their starting quarterback after erstwhile starter, Tyler Van Dyke, was injured in last week's loss.  Miami was actually favored by 10.5 points in that Duke game.  It was a nightmarish performance all the way around, including a ghastly 8 turnovers (5 by Garcia).  But I love Miami to bounce back today, as NCAA favorites have covered 62% over the last 43 years off a loss by 20+ points as a double-digit favorite, when they were playing, in their current game, an opponent off a SU win. And Virginia's covered just 33% as a home dog since 1980 vs. foes off an upset loss.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have had a creampuff schedule thus far.  They've played six of their seven games at home.  And their only road game was against Michigan State, which is having a down year.  (The Buckeyes were favored by 27 on the road in that game.)  So, this game will be the sternest test for Ohio State yet this season.  It's on the road.  And it's the first time this season that Ohio State wasn't favored by 17+ points.  Penn State enters off a 45-17 blowout of Minnesota, and falls into several of my best 'momentum' systems, with records of 202-115, 323-216 and 119-52 ATS since 1980.  Additionally, the Nitts are 44-23 ATS at home off a conference win, including 15-4 ATS if they won their previous game by 25+ points.  Grab the points with the Nittany Lions.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Washington.  The Bears come into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Washington State and Colorado.  But both of those games were on the road (where Cal is 0-3 on the season).  At home, it's been a different story, as California is 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS.  The Bears play this game with revenge from a 31-24 loss in Seattle last season.  And Washington is an awful 0-7 ATS its last seven (and 13-31-1 ATS its last 45) as road favorites vs. revenge-minded conference foes, if the Huskies were off a win, and owned a winning record.  Grab the points with California.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Fresno State.  The Bulldogs upset San Jose State, 17-10, last week as a 7-point home dog, and they covered the spread for the first time all season, after an 0-5 ATS start to the season.  Now, Fresno has been installed as a big road favorite in Albuquerque.  But I look for a reversion to form for Fresno, as road favorites have covered just 33% over the last 42 years off an upset win, if they were on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak prior to that upset victory.  Additionally, the Lobos are 13-2 ATS against foes that won outright as a 7-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over UCLA.  Both of these teams are undefeated (3-0) in Pac-12 conference play, though UCLA owns the better overall record, at 6-0 (compared to Oregon's 5-1).  In the Bruins' last game, they upset Utah, 42-32, as a 3-point home underdog.  I played on UCLA in that game, but will go against Chip Kelly's men on this Saturday, as undefeated Pac-12 Conference teams are 14-27-1 ATS off an upset conference win.  Even worse for the Bruins:  they're 15-36-1 ATS off back to back wins, including 1-7 ATS as an underdog off a double-digit win.  And the Ducks are 26-9-1 ATS vs. conference foes, if the Ducks owned a worse season W/L record, and were not getting 4+ points.  Lay the points with Oregon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our Conference USA Game of the Month is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners minus the points over North Texas.  The Mean Green come into this game off back to back blowout wins over Florida Atlantic (45-28) and Louisiana Tech (47-27).  They've now been installed as an underdog at UTSA, which doesn't bode well for the Mean Green.  Indeed, underdogs are a horrible 13-45 ATS after back to back games where they scored more than 40 points, including 0-10 ATS their last 10 when playing a revenge-minded foe.  With the Roadrunners seeking revenge from a 22-point loss in Denton last season, we'll lay the points with UTSA.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over James Madison.  The Dukes suffered their first loss of the season last week following a 5-0 SU/ATS start.  We'll go against James Madison on Saturday, as double-digit favorites off a SU/ATS loss have covered just 63 of 169 if that loss was their first of the season after a 5-0 (or better) start.  Take Marshall + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Iowa.  Our strongest football play so far this year was on the Ohio State Buckeyes, Sept. 17, vs. Toledo.  The Bucks were averaging just 33 ppg, and were 0-2 ATS on the season going into that contest.  But Ohio State erupted for 77 points, and that was a harbinger of things to come.  Since that game, Ohio State has scored 52, 49, and 49 points.  And they're 3-0-1 ATS their last four games.  I won't step in front of this freight train, as NCAA teams have covered 63.3% of their home games since 1980 vs. conference foes, if they scored 49+ points in each of their three previous games, and did not fail to cover the spread in any of those three games.  Lay the points with the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over North Carolina.  The Blue Devils were upset in overtime, 23-20, by Georgia Tech last week to fall to 4-2 on the season.  They'll now welcome their rival, North Carolina, to Durham, and have been installed as a home underdog.  UNC is 5-1 this year following its upset win at Miami last Saturday.  Unfortunately for Carolina, favorites off an upset win have covered just 32% over the last 43 years when playing a .666 (or better) conference foe off an upset loss.  Take Duke + the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Southern Cal.  The Utes were upset on the road last week by UCLA, 42-32.  And that was Utah's 2nd loss on the season.  But both losses were away from home; here, in Salt Lake City, Utah is 19-1 SU its last 20 vs. Division 1 FBS teams, and 14-6 ATS.  USC is now 6-0 after its blowout of Washington State.  But undefeated teams, with a 6-0 (or better) record, are a soft 33% as underdogs of more than 3 points against foes off an upset loss.  Additionally, Utah is 12-4 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against a foe off a double-digit win.  And USC is a poor 26-48-1 ATS on the road off a win.  Take the Utes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Clemson.  The Seminoles lost by 10 points to Clemson last season, so they play with revenge on Saturday night vs. the undefeated Tigers.  FSU's been installed as a home underdog in this ACC contest.  And the Seminoles have covered 67% as revenge-minded home dogs since 1980 vs. conference rivals.  Even better:  Florida State lost on the road, 19-17, to NC State last week, which was its second straight loss.  But the Seminoles are 41-23-3 ATS off a SU road loss.  And single-digit ACC home dogs, off back to back losses, are a super 75% ATS vs. conference rivals off back to back wins.  Grab the points with Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State.  QB Will Levis was injured in Kentucky's 22-19 loss at Mississippi two weeks ago, and missed last week's home loss to South Carolina.  But Levis has been upgraded to 'probable' for this game.  The Wildcats have a solid defense, and are giving up just 16.3 ppg.  And that's key, as .666 (or better) home underdogs off back to back losses, that give up 20.5 (or less) points per game, have covered 64.7% since 1980.  Take Kentucky + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month is on the Troy Trojans minus the points over Texas State.  The Bobcats pulled off a major upset last week, as a 20-point home underdog against Appalachian State.  Texas State was outgained by 102 yards, yet stunned the Mountaineers, 36-24.  But off that upset win, we'll look for a letdown at Troy on Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, Sun Belt underdogs of more than 3 points have cashed just 12 of 49 games vs. conference foes off a straight-up win.  The Trojans come into this game on a 3-game win streak (and 4-game ATS win streak).  Unfortunately for the Bobcats, they're 9-18 ATS on the road vs. foes off a win, including 0-5 ATS their last five.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over NC State.  In a battle of top 20-ranked clubs, we'll lay the points with the undefeated home team.  Syracuse has stormed out to a 5-0 record.  And it's also 4-1 ATS.  On Saturday, it will welcome a Wolfpack squad which is 5-1 SU, but just 2-4 ATS after dropping its 3rd straight "in Vegas" last weekend.  This will be the Wolfpack's 3rd road game of the season.  It lost ATS its first two.  And it's a wallet-breaking 8-33-2 ATS on the road when unrested, and priced from +7.5 to -7.5 points.  Take the Orange.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Oklahoma State.  TCU comes into this game with an unblemished 5-0 record.  And it's also an undefeated 4-0-1 ATS.  That bodes well for it on Saturday, as over the last 42 years, at Game 6 forward, NCAA teams that were undefeated both SU and ATS have covered the spread 64% of the time, if they weren't favored by 7+ points, and were playing at home, or on a neutral field.  Additionally, the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Last year, the Cowboys crushed the Frogs, 63-17.  But TCU is a solid 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS when playing with revenge, if it was favored at home, and owned an .800 (or better) win percentage.  Take TCU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Navy.  The Mustangs lost at Central Florida, 41-19, last week.  And that was their third straight loss, and 4th straight ATS defeat.  Meanwhile, Navy pulled off a big upset win against Tulsa, 53-21, as a 4.5-point home dog.  We'll lay the points with SMU tonight, as conference favorites of -3 (or more) points, on a 4-game ATS losing streak, have covered 75.8% since 1980 vs. foes on a 3-game ATS win streak, if their foe was off a SU win the previous week.  Moreover, SMU is a solid 29-18 ATS in Conference games off back to back losses, if it was also on a 2-game ATS losing streak.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Louisiana.  The Rajin' Cajuns come into tonight's game off 3 straight losses, but they covered the spread in their most recent game -- a 20-17 home loss to South Alabama.  Meanwhile, Marshall defeated Gardner Webb, 28-7, to start October, but failed to cover the 31.5-point spread.  And that was the Thundering Herd's third straight ATS defeat.  Marshall's been installed as a double-digit favorite tonight.  And NCAA home teams, priced from -7 to -25 points, have been solid (108-75-3 ATS) off three straight ATS losses when matched up against foes off a point spread win.  Lay the points with Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Boston College.  The Eagles stunned Louisville last week, 34-33, as a 13.5-point home underdog.  And that was the first time all season that Boston College covered the point spread (BC is 2-3 SU, and 1-4 ATS, and has failed to cover by an average of 5.25 ppg this season).  The Eagles will remain in Chestnut Hill on Saturday night to take on the highly-ranked Tigers.  Unfortunately for the Eagles, they're a terrible 10-17-1 ATS at home off an upset win, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  And with Clemson in off a 30-20 win over then-No. 10 ranked-NC State, our 0-6 angle is satisfied.  Even worse for the Eagles:  Clemson is a dominant 23-7-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including 16-0 ATS vs. < .750 foes that have an average point spread differential less than 3 ppg.  Lay the points with Clemson.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:00 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Texas-San Antonio.  Both teams enter this game with identical 3-2 SU/ATS records.  The Hilltoppers lost at home, 34-27, as a 5-point home favorite to Troy last Saturday, while UTSA defeated Middle Tennessee, 45-30.  This game is a rematch of last season's Conference USA championship game, which was won by the Roadrunners, 49-41.  We'll take Western Kentucky to avenge that defeat, as it is 16-0 ATS on the road when priced from -3 to +12 points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets fired coach Geoff Collins and athletic director Todd Stansbury last month on the heels of a 27-10 loss to UCF (which was Georgia Tech's 9th straight loss to a Division 1 FBS opponent).  Brent Key was named interim head football coach, and his team rewarded him with a 26-21 upset win at Pittsburgh last Saturday.  The Jackets were massive 21.5-point underdogs in that game, and were outgained on the day by the Panthers.  But Georgia Tech took advantage of 3 Pittsburgh turnovers to get the outright win.  But off that upset, I expect a letdown vs. Duke, as losing teams have covered just 33% as home dogs since 1983 off upset wins as a dog of more than 21 points.  Take Duke to rout the Yellow Jackets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Utah.  This is a great Pac-12 battle at the Rose Bowl on Saturday afternoon.  Utah opened its season with an upset loss at the hands of the Florida Gators, 29-26.  But the Utes have rebounded to win and cover each of their next four games, and have been installed as a road favorite here, in Pasadena.  UCLA, for its part, survived a scare by South Alabama in Week 3, and is now 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS.  And both teams are undefeated in Pac-12 play, with 2-0 records (USC and Oregon are also undefeated).  The Bruins have historically been strong as a home underdog, including an awesome 31-12-2 ATS against foes not off a point spread loss.  Meanwhile, Utah is an underwhelming 9-19 ATS as a single-digit road favorite vs. an opponent off a SU win.  And Pac-12 road teams, with a 2-0 (or better) conference record, have covered just 30 of 78 games vs. foes with a winning Pac-12 record.  Take UCLA + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Missouri.  The Tigers almost pulled off the season's biggest upset last week when they took #1 Georgia down to the wire before falling, 26-22, as a 31-point home dog.  That will be a tough game to bounce back from, as NCAA teams have covered just 31.8% after losing to the defending National Champs by a touchdown or less.  And the SEC road has not been kind to Missouri, as the Tigers are a dismal 7-20 SU and 8-19 ATS at SEC rivals, including 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS when not favored by more than 3 points.  Florida is a powerful 71% since 1980 as a double-digit home favorite vs. losing teams off an ATS win.  Lay the points with the Gators.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs and Jayhawks are both undefeated SU and ATS this season.  TCU is 4-0 SU/ATS following an upset win over the Oklahoma Sooners, 55-24, while Kansas is 5-0 SU/ATS following an upset win over Iowa State, 14-11.  We'll fade TCU as road favorites off an upset win in which they scored 50+ points are an abysmal 1-12 ATS their last 13.  Take Kansas + the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Memphis.  The Coogs have largely stumbled this season, as they're 1-4 ATS, and have lost two games outright as 8.5 and 4.5-point favorites.  Their lone point spread win this season was when they were installed as a 4-point underdog at Texas Tech.  And they covered the spread in that game -- a 33-30 loss.  Houston is 22-11-1 ATS its last 34 as an underdog, including 14-4-1 ATS on the road.  That bodes well for Houston here.  As does the fact that the Cougars are 10-2 ATS off an upset loss at home to a conference rival.  Meanwhile, the Tigers are a wallet-breaking 10-35-1 ATS as a single-digit home favorite!  Grab the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30pm, our selection is on the Alabama-Birmingham Blazers minus the points over Rice. This is a huge revenge game for the Blazers, as they were favored by 23.5 points last year at home vs. Rice, but lost, 30-24.  The Owls hung tough at Houston last Saturday, but ultimately succumbed to the Cougars, 34-27, as a 17.5-point road underdog.  UAB had last week off after defeating Georgia Southern two weeks ago, 35-21, as an 11.5-point home favorite.  We played on UAB in that victory, and will come back with them here, on the road, at Rice.  UAB is a solid 14-7-2 ATS when playing with rest vs. a conference foe.  And Rice is a horrid 1-10 ATS when getting 2+ points against a revenge-minded foe.  Lay the points with Alabama-Birmingham.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Baylor.  This game has been circled for months on the Cowboys' calendar, as Baylor knocked it off in the Big 12 Title game last December.  The Bears were a touchdown underdog in that game, but won a thriller, 21-16, when the Cowboys' Dezmon Jackson came up inches short of a game-winning TD when he dove for the pylon on a 4th-and-goal play with less than 30 seconds left in the game.  Two weeks ago, Oklahoma State blew out Pine Bluff, 63-7.  And Okie State is 41-12 ATS off a win in which it scored 50+ points.  Additionally, early in the season, rested, revenging road teams have cashed 65.9% when playing with revenge from an upset loss, if not favored by 7+ points in the current game.  Take the Cowboys + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over James Madison.  This is JMU's first season at the Division 1 (FBS) level, and it's off to a 3-0 SU/ATS start, with three impressive victories over Middle Tenn (44-7), Norfolk (63-7) and Appalachian St (32-28).  We played on the Dukes last week, as a touchdown underdog, and it stormed back from an early 28-3 deficit to upend Appalachian St in Boone.  The Dukes return home to Harrisonburg for this game, and have been installed as a greater-than-three-touchdown favorite against the Bobcats.  Off that big emotional win (its first conference game at this level), I'll look for a letdown on Saturday.  Take Texas State + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan.  The Hawkeyes come into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins, as they held their last two opponents (Rutgers, Nevada) to 10 and 0 points, respectively.  For the season, Iowa's given up just 5.7 ppg.  And they're holding their opponents to a mere 2.2 yards per rush.  I like playing on certain defensive-minded underdogs with strong rush defenses.  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 5 forward, NCAA underdogs that give up less than 14 points per game, and less than 2.75 ypr, are 122-68 ATS if they come into the game off a momentum-building win.  Even better:  if our puppy is playing at home vs. a conference foe, then our 122-68 ATS angle zooms to 21-5 ATS.  Take Iowa + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Temple.  This is a big revenge game for Memphis which was upset by Temple last season, 34-31, as an 11-point road favorite.  The Owls do come into this game off three straight ATS wins.  But all three of those games were at home.  In Temple's lone road game this season, it was blown out, 30-0, by Duke.  And that continued the Owls' road woes, as they're 3-14 SU and 5-12 ATS away from home, including 0-5 SU/ATS since Oct 8, 2021.  Even worse:  Temple's 0-7 SU/ATS its last seven conference games, while Memphis is a solid 11-6 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. a conference foe.  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Air Force minus the points over Navy.  The Midshipmen upset East Carolina last Saturday, 23-20, while Air Force ran over Nevada, 48-20.  We'll fade Navy, as it's 5-20 ATS in non-conference games off an upset win, if its opponent was also off a SU win.  Take Air Force.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over Kansas State.  Both of these teams pulled off upsets last Saturday.  Texas Tech got the better of Texas, in Lubbock, 37-34, as a 7-point dog.  And, not to be outdone, the Wildcats went into Norman, and stunned the highly-ranked Sooners, 41-34, as a 13.5-point underdog.  K-State will try to make it two-conference-wins-in-a-row on Saturday when the Red Raiders pay a visit to Manhattan.  But Big 12 (or Big 8) Conference home favorites have only covered 32.1% since 1980 off a conference upset road win, if they were matched up against a conference foe which also won its previous game.  Grab the points with Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Washington.  Both of these Pac-12 teams sport 4-0 records in the early going.  Last Saturday, Washington blew out Stanford in Seattle to move to 4-0 SU/ATS, while UCLA went into Boulder and crushed Colorado, 45-17.  We'll grab the points with Chip Kelly's men on Friday, and go against Washington, as Pac-12 road favorites of 8 or less points have covered just 27.7% against foes that don't have a worse record, if our road team was off a win + cover as a home favorite.  Even better:  the Bruins are 23-9-2 ATS as a home dog vs. foes off a point spread win.  Take UCLA + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Wyoming.  The Cougars were blown out last week, 41-20, at Oregon, while Wyoming upset Air Force, 17-14.  We'll look for BYU to crush the Cowboys, as BYU has covered 70.5% over the last 42 years off a loss, when installed as a home favorite against non-conference foes, including 6-0-1 ATS their last seven when also off a double-digit loss!  Lay the points with Brigham Young.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over USC.  The Beavers enter with a 3-0 SU/ATS record after blowing out Montana State last Saturday, 68-28.  They're a home dog here, so we'll grab the points knowing that conference underdogs of more than 4 points have covered 57% over the last 42 years, if they scored 68+ points in their previous game.  Moreover, USC is an ugly 14-28 ATS away from home off a point spread win.  Take Oregon State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks minus the points over Charlotte.  The Gamecocks were blown out here, at home in Columbia, last Saturday.  The #1-ranked Georgia Bulldogs rolled into town, and roasted the Gamecocks, 48-7.  But off that debacle, I love Shane Beamer's men to rebound on Saturday night.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NCAA home favorites of -16 (or more) points, off a home loss by 16+ points, have covered 82.3% vs. non-conference foes off a win.  With Charlotte off a 42-41 win at Georgia State, we'll fade the 49ers in this game.  Lay the points with South Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Wisconsin.  We played on the Buckeyes last week as our NCAA Favorite of the Month, and were rewarded with a 77-21 blowout over Toledo, as a 31-point favorite.  This Saturday, the Buckeyes are hosting Wisconsin in their Big 10 Conference opener.  Ohio State has won 10 straight conference openers, and is 5-0-1 ATS their last six (and 26-3 SU, 18-7-4 ATS their last 29).  Even better:  the Buckeyes have won 11 of the last 12 meetings, and are 8-3-1 ATS in those games (and 4-0-1 ATS here in Columbus).  We'll lay the points on Saturday night, as undefeated teams have covered 65.1% of conference home games since 1980 off a home game where they covered the spread by 25+ points.  Take the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over LSU.  The Tigers pulled off a big upset win last week vs. SEC rival, Mississippi State.  But off that emotional win, we'll fade the Tigers in this non-conference game.  Since 1980, LSU has covered just 30% of non-conference games off upset wins, while the Lobos are 18-8 ATS vs. foes off an upset win (including 5-0 vs. non-conference foes).  Take New Mexico + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi + the points over Tulane.  The Green Wave pulled off a big upset last week when it went into Manhattan, KS, and upset the Wildcats, 17-10, as a 13-point road dog.  We'll fade Tulane on Saturday evening, as it's 2-18 SU and 3-17 ATS off an upset road win, including 0-9 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Grab the points with Southern Mississippi.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Rice.  The Cougars have dominated this cross-town rivalry since 2011, with 6 straight wins (5-1 ATS).  Houston does come into this game off back to back losses, but it's 9-2 ATS off back to back losses, and 19-8 ATS when it owned a losing point spread record.  Look for Houston to rebound off its losses, and blow out Rice.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Florida.  The Volunteers come into this game with a 3-0 record, and also play with revenge from a 24-point blowout loss at Florida last season.  It's true that Florida has won the last five meetings.  But revenge-minded favorites, with an .875 (or better) win percentage, have covered 63.8% vs. conference rivals over the last 20 seasons, if they also lost to their opponent two meetings back.  That bodes well for the Volunteers on Saturday.  As does the fact that Florida is a dreadful 0-8 ATS its last eight road games.  Lay the points with Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes + the points over Appalachian State.  James Madison has been impressive in its first two games as a Division 1 FBS team.  It opened with a 44-7 blowout of Middle Tennessee, as a 5-point home favorite.  And then it walloped Norfolk State, 63-7.  It's been installed as a touchdown underdog at 2-1 Appalachian State, which checks in off back to back wins over Texas A&M and Troy State.  We'll grab the points, as .500 (or better) underdogs of +7 (or more) points have covered 60.9% since 1980 after back to back games where they gave up 7 or less points.  Take James Madison.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Maryland.  The Wolves have picked up where they left off last season, as they're 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.  Over the last two seasons, Jim Harbaugh's troops are 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS, including 9-1 ATS when priced from -5 to -50 points.  One of those wins last season was against this Maryland team.  Michigan was favored by 16, and won 59-18.  This season, the point spread is similar to last year.  And I expect a similar result.  Maryland is a horrid 4-29 SU and 7-26 ATS vs. winning teams.  And it's 0-13 ATS when playing a .600 (or better) foe, and getting 14+ points.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over San Diego State.  Last season, the Aztecs upset the Utes, 33-31, as an 8-point home underdog.  We'll take Utah in this revenge match, as the Utes have cashed 70% at home over the past 42 years when playing with revenge from an upset loss.  And they've cashed 80% since 1980 when playing with revenge against a non-conference foe.  San Diego State, meanwhile, is a soft 37% ATS on the road vs. revenge-minded, non-conference foes.  And Utah also falls into a 75-46 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams in non-conference games.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over SMU.  The Mustangs and Terrapins are both 2-0 on the season.  SMU dispatched North Texas (48-10) in Week 1, and Lamar (45-16) last Saturday, while Maryland blew out Buffalo and Charlotte in its games.  The Terps have been installed as a small favorite here, and that's not good news for SMU.  Indeed, the Mustangs are a wallet-breaking 13-39 ATS as a road underdog of +10 (or less) points.  Even worse, NCAAF underdogs are 0-13 ATS their last 13 (and 8-42 ATS their last 50) off back to back games in which they scored more than 40 points.  Take Maryland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Toledo.  The Rockets come into this game with a 2-0 record, after winning home games vs. Long Island, 37-0, and UMass, 55-10.  But this is a monstrous step-up in class for Toledo, which will travel 140 miles south to play the Buckeyes in Columbus.  Toledo's generally been horrible out-of-conference when installed as an underdog of more than 2 points.  And especially when playing a .500 (or better) opponent, as it's gone 4-25 SU and 7-22 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for the Rockets on Saturday night.  Ohio State wasn't at its best last week, as it won by only 33 (as a 44.5-point favorite) vs. Arkansas State.  But the Buckeyes were without WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Julian Fleming, both of whom will play on Saturday night.  The return of All-American Smith-Njigba should be especially impactful, as he led OSU with 1606 receiving yards last season.  After Ohio State failed to cover the spread last week, several of my best NCAAF systems -- with records of 65-22, 277-189 and 30-4 ATS -- have been triggered on the Buckeyes.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Liberty.  Wake Forest was impressive last week in its blowout win at Vanderbilt.  The Deacs were favored by 13, and covered the spread in a 45-25 triumph.  They'll look to move their record to 3-0 SU/ATS, as 2-0 Liberty will pay a visit.  Wake is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS at home after scoring more than 30 points in back-to-back games.  And it's 6-0-1 ATS when priced from -7.5 to -28 points.  Lay the points with Wake Forest.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Kansas.  The Cougars will be happy to return to Houston for their 2022 home opener after road games against Texas-San Antonio and Texas Tech.  The Cougars split those two games, and will welcome the 2-0 Jayhawks to TDECU Stadium.  Kansas is 2-0 for the first time since the 2011 season after its upset win as a 2-touchdown underdog at WVU last week.  But Kansas hasn't won 3 straight games since 2009.  And it's a dismal 55-84-1 ATS its last 140, overall, including 7-19-1 ATS off a win, and 2-19-1 ATS if it owned a winning record!  Take Houston minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers + the points over Penn State.  Both of these teams come into this game with 2-0 records.  Penn State notched a Big 10 win at Purdue, 35-31, and then walloped Ohio, 46-10.  Auburn opened its season with a 26-point win over Mercer, and then outlasted San Jose State last Saturday, 24-16.  A year ago, the Nittany Lions bested the Tigers, 28-20, in Happy Valley, as a 4-point home favorite.  This season's game is in Auburn, where the Tigers have won 17 straight vs. non-conference foes.  Even better:  Auburn is 22-10 ATS at home when playing with revenge, including 9-1 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +10 points.  Finally, the Nittany Lions are a dismal 22-36-3 ATS vs. undefeated opponents, including 2-11 ATS on the road if the Nittany Lions were also undefeated, and also 3-15-1 ATS if its foe was off an ATS loss.  Take Auburn + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers minus the points over Georgia Southern.  Last Saturday, the Eagles went into Lincoln as a 23.5-point underdog, and handed Nebraska a 45-42 loss.  And then Nebraska Athletic Director, Trev Alberts, handed coach Scott Frost his walking papers.  Off that big upset win, I look for a letdown on the road in Birmingham.  Indeed, over the past 42 years, underdogs off upset road wins as 14-point (or greater) underdogs, have covered the spread just 39% in their next game when matched up against a .500 (or better) team.  Lay the points with the Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over South Alabama.  UCLA comes into this game with a 2-0 record following wins over Bowling Green (45-17) and Alabama St. (45-7).  South Alabama is also 2-0, as the Jaguars went up north last weekend and upset Central Michigan, 38-24, as a 6-point dog.  And they won SU/ATS in Week 1 against Nicholls St., 48-7.  Unfortunately, teams off an upset win, that are undefeated SU/ATS on the season, have covered just 41% since 1980 as double-digit dogs vs. foes off a SU win.  Even worse:  South Alabama is a woeful 0-8 ATS off a SU/ATS win when matched up against a foe off a SU win.  And the Bruins are a solid 25-7 ATS at home following a big offensive game where they scored 42+ points.  Take UCLA.

At 11 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Arizona.  We played on each of these two teams last week -- and won on both of them.  Miss State demolished Memphis 49-23, while Arizona upset San Diego State, 38-20.  But off its huge upset win, we will fade the Wildcats on Saturday night.  Arizona is a wallet-busting 39-76-2 ATS off a point spread win, including 0-7 ATS in non-conference games off a SU win as an underdog/PK.  Additionally, the Wildcats fall into negative 11-66, 89-178 and 53-139 ATS systems of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Baylor.  Last year, the Bears got the better of the Cougars, 38-24.  But that game was in Waco; this game is in Provo.  Baylor has covered just 1 of 8 non-conference games when playing a revenge-minded foe, if Baylor wasn't favored by 20+ points.  And BYU is a solid 33-21-1 ATS when playing with revenge, and not favored by 7+ points.  Take the Cougars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Georgia Southern.  The 'Huskers won last week (but didn't cover), and are now 1-1 SU, and 0-2 ATS.  We'll lay the points with Scott Frost's men, as Nebraska has gone 34-1 SU and 28-7 ATS if it didn't cover the point spread in either of its two previous games, and was priced between -9 and -31 points.  Take the Cornhuskers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates minus the points over Old Dominion.  The Monarchs won a big game last week when they upset Virginia Tech, 20-17, at home.  But off that emotional win over an in-state rival, we'll fade ODU on Saturday evening.  Indeed, underdogs have covered just 40% over the last 42 years off an upset home win to open their season.  Lay the points with the Pirates.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Tennessee.  This is a rematch of a game played in Knoxville last September.  Pitt was a 3.5-point road favorite in that game, and won, 41-34.  And that game was representative of Tennessee's problems over the last five seasons.  It just hasn't stepped up vs. winning teams.  Indeed, the Vols are 8-23 SU and 11-20 ATS vs. winning foes, including 3-11 SU/ATS their last 14.  Certainly, the Vols hope to turn things around this season.  They won their opener last Thursday, 59-10, over Ball State.  And they've now been installed as a road favorite against last year's ACC Champ, Pittsburgh, which won, 38-31, vs. rival West Virginia.  Still, we'll go against the Volunteers, as they're an awful 20-36-2 ATS off a home win, including 0-7 ATS since 2020.  And if they won their previous game by 27+ points, then they've gone 3-18 ATS, including 0-9 ATS with revenge.  Grab the points with Pittsburgh.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers + the points over North Carolina.  Georgia State lost at South Carolina last week, 35-14, while North Carolina upset Appalachian St, 63-61.  The Panthers return home this week, and will seek to avenge a road loss at North Carolina last September.  The Tar Heels were favored by 25.5 last season, and defeated Georgia St, 59-17.  We'll take the Panthers + the points, as home underdogs have covered 61% of their home openers vs. non-conference foes since 1980, when playing with revenge from a 24-point (or worse) defeat.  Even better, the Tar Heels are an awful 11-30-1 ATS off a road win in which they scored more than 30 points.  And they're 1-9 ATS their last 10 off a point spread win.  Take Georgia State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Northwestern.  Duke shut out Temple, 30-0, last week to kick off its 2022 season.  And it now will travel to Evanston to play Northwestern.  The Wildcats also are 1-0, as they upset the Nebraska Cornhuskers, in Dublin, Ireland, to open their season.  They'll try to follow that up with a home win against the Blue Devils, who have won each of the last three meetings between these teams.  Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they're a woeful 27-46-2 ATS as a home favorite, including 0-9 ATS when priced from -8 to -12.  And Duke is 34-20-1 ATS as an underdog vs. a revenge-minded foe.  Take Duke.

At 12 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Southern Miss.  The 'Canes had a cupcake game to kick off 2022, as they blew out Bethune-Cookman here last Saturday, 70-13.  Southern Miss lost by 2 points to Liberty, but covered the point spread.  Off that 57-point win, we'll lay the wood with Miami today.  Over the last 42 seasons, favorites that scored more than 49 points in Week 1 are 67.1% ATS in Week 2 when playing an opponent off an ATS win that gave up more than 10 points in its previous game.  Take the Hurricanes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Notre Dame.  The Marcus Freeman-era will start this Saturday, and it will be at a most difficult venue for visiting teams.  Ohio State is a dominant 134-32-1 straight-up, and 94-64-4 ATS at home when not favored by 22+ points.  Even better:  dating back to 1979, Ohio State has won 34 straight season openers, if it was playing at home, and has gone 21-11 ATS in those games.  Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish are a wallet-breaking 15-26-1 ATS in their first road game of the season, including 0-3 SU/ATS as double-digit underdogs.  And they've covered just 21 of 52 road games vs. Big 10 Conference foes.  Lay the points with Ohio State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Alabama.  The Aggies won their season opener last week, at home, vs. UConn, 31-20, and outgained the Huskies by 178 yards.  Here, they've been installed as a 6-touchdown underdog vs. the #1-ranked Crimson Tide, and we'll happily grab the points.  Alabama has burned money over the past 42 years in its home openers, including 3-9 ATS when priced as a 28-point (or greater) favorite.  Utah State, on the other hand, is 10-5 ATS its last 15 road openers.  And it's a profitable 33-15 ATS when getting more than 3 points away from home (including 15-5 ATS when getting more than 20).  Take the Aggies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Memphis.  These two teams met last season at Memphis, and the Tigers upset Miss State, 31-29.  We had a big play on Memphis in that game, but will reverse course, and take the revenge-minded Bulldogs on Saturday night.  Over the previous 33 years, Mississippi State has cashed 64.2% as a revenge-minded favorite, including 82% in non-conference games!  That bodes well for Miss State on Saturday.  As does the fact that Memphis is 0-8 ATS its last 8 when playing on the road against a revenge-minded foe.  Lay the points with the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the N. Texas Mean Green + the points over SMU.  The Mean Green play with revenge from three blowout losses to the Mustangs (35-12, 65-35, 49-27) the past three seasons.  Here, the Mean Green will play with a game under its belt (while SMU will be taking the field for the first time this season).  And the Mean Green were impressive in their first game, as they earned a blowout win at UTEP.  North Texas is 17-6 ATS at home off a road win.  Additionally, the Mean Green fall into a 131-74 ATS revenge system of mine, as well as a 34-14 ATS 'momentum' angle, based on their 18-point blowout win last week.  Grab the points with North Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats + the points over the San Diego State Aztecs.  Last season, San Diego State went into Tucson, and pummeled Arizona, 38-14.  But you know what they say about paybacks!  And Arizona falls into a terrific 95-55 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain teams in a revenge situation.  The Aztecs, meanwhile, have covered just 40% since 1980 as favorites vs. revenge-minded non-conference foes.  And Arizona has cashed 71% since 1980 as underdogs when playing with revenge vs. non-conference opposition.  Take the Wildcats + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Cincinnati. Luke Fickell's men have gone 22-2 SU and 14-8 ATS the past two seasons, but I expect a big drop-off this season.  The Bearcats lost QB Desmond Ridder, RB Jerome Ford and WR Alec Pierce, among others, on offense.  And they also lost six defensive starters from a unit which finished #5 in scoring defense.  Cincinnati may get better as the season progresses, but it's too much to ask of this team to go into Fayetteville, and win a season opener.  The Razorbacks are a solid 34-5-1 straight-up in their last 40 home openers, and have covered the spread 60% of the time, including 12-3 ATS when priced from +3 to -20.5 points.  Cincinnati, meanwhile, is a soft 14-28 SU and 16-22 ATS in its road openers, including 5-22 SU and 11-16 ATS when priced as an underdog.  Lay the points with Arkansas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Houston.  Each of these teams come into 2022 off great seasons last year.  Houston capped off a 12-2 campaign with a 17-13 victory over Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl, while UTSA also went 12-2, but lost in the Frisco Bowl to San Diego St., 38-24.  The Roadrunners have been dominant here in the Alamo City, as they've won 10 straight home games, and have gone 7-3 ATS in this stretch.  Texas-San Antonio has also covered 67% as home dogs of +10 or less points, while Houston has covered just 13 of 37 as a road favorite of 10 or less points.  Finally, in match-ups between two teams that won 80% (or more) of their games the previous season, teams installed as home dogs in their home openers have covered the spread 69% since 1980.  Grab the points with Texas-San Antonio.

At 9 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners over the North Texas Mean Green.  Last season, UTEP had a winning campaign (7-6) for the first time since 2014, and earned a New Mexico Bowl bid.  The Miners did lose that bowl game, 31-24, to Fresno State (its 7th straight bowl defeat), but its season was still a success.  This season, the Miners return 15 players for 5th year-head coach, Dana Dimel, who was 5-27 in his first three seasons in El Paso.  The Miners fell to the Mean Green, 20-17, last season on a late field goal.  And that was UTEP's 5th straight defeat in this series.  We'll take UTEP to avenge that defeat as it falls into a 67-36 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, revenge-minded Conference USA teams have gone 175-137 ATS at home vs. conference foes, if our revenger wasn't favored by more than 3 points.  And North Texas is a wallet-busting 4-15 ATS its last 19 road games vs. revenge-minded opponents.  Finally, the Miners are 8-2 ATS in their home openers when installed as a PK/Underdog, while North Texas is a poor 3-15 SU and 6-12 ATS vs. an opponent playing its home opener.  Take Texas El Paso.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Utah.  The Buckeyes were upset, 42-27, as a 6.5-point road favorite by a Michigan team on a mission to end its long, 8-game losing streak to its rival.  But off that upset loss, we'll step in and take Ohio State in this Rose Bowl matchup vs. Utah.  Ohio State is a solid 12-4 ATS away from home off an upset loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if it failed to cover the spread by 18+ points in its previous game.  And it's 42-19-1 ATS away from home when not laying more than 10 points, including 11-1 ATS vs. foes with a win percentage greater than .600 and less than .800.  Lay the points with the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish have reeled off seven straight wins to end their season, but I'm not impressed, given the slate of teams they defeated.  Of the seven teams, only Virginia Tech and North Carolina made a bowl game.  And both were slaughtered this past week, as North Carolina lost by 17 as a 12-point favorite vs. South Carolina (failing to cover by 29), while Virginia Tech was shredded by Maryland, 54-10 (and failed to cover by 39.5 points).  Those were two of the three worst Bowl performances relative to the spread this season (Mississippi State was the 2nd worst, at -36.5 points).  In contrast, Oklahoma State came within inches of finishing the season with its own 6-game win streak.  But Baylor's defense stopped Oklahoma State just short of the goal line in the Big 12 Championship game to preserve the win for the Bears.  But if you look at Oklahoma State's opponents down the stretch, you'll see teams like Baylor, Okahoma, Texas Tech and West Virginia.  The Bears have yet to play their Bowl game, but Oklahoma and Texas Tech were both dominant, as they covered the spread by 8 and 36.5 points, respectively.  By my numbers Oklahoma State rates as the better team, yet it's been installed as a small underdog.  For technical support, consider that Oklahoma State is a perfect 12-0 ATS its last 12 off an upset loss, if playing an opponent off a win, if Oklahoma State wasn't favored by 4+ points in the current game.  And the Cowboys also fall into several of my favorite NCAA Bowl systems, with records of 136-69, 39-10, 16-4, and 59-22 ATS since 1980.  Grab the points with the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Michigan.  Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines have had a tremendous turnaround season, but this will be a most difficult opponent for them to defeat.  Going into the SEC Championship game, the Bulldogs were 12-0, and had given up just 6.9 ppg on defense.  Yes, Alabama scored 41 in an upset win, but it was an unusual game for Georgia since it knew it would be in these playoffs, even if it loss (while Alabama knew it had to win to advance).  This evening, Georgia will be fully motivated, and I expect it to shut down Michigan, just as it shut down all of its opponents in the regular season.  Georgia is a spectacular 39-15 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes, while Michigan is 5-35 straight-up, and 14-26 ATS as an underdog of +3 (or more) points.  And the SEC Conference has gone 25-8 SU and 23-10 ATS in the Bowls vs. the Big 10 Conference when the SEC team owned the better defense, and was not the underdog.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Alabama.  The Crimson Tide has been installed as a huge double-digit favorite in this game.  I generally don't like to lay points in bowl games, and especially not when the favored team doesn't own the better defense or the better ground attack.  The Bearcats have given up just 16.1 ppg on the season (against foes that average 26 ppg), and fall into a 73.0% ATS defensive underdog system of mine, as well as a 67.5% ATS system which plays on certain bowl teams with better rushing statistics.  The Bearcats are 14-2 ATS their last 16 when not laying 11+ points, including 5-0 ATS their last five as an underdog.  Take Cincy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Central Michigan.  The number on this game has come down signficiantly from where it was earlier this morning, so that's all we need to pull the trigger on Jake Dickert's Cougars.  Washington State ended its season on a 6-2 SU run, and the only game it failed to cover was by a half-point (38-24 loss to Oregon, as a 13.5-point underdog).  Today, Wazzu is favored in the Sun Bowl vs. the Mid-American Conference's Chippewas, who won their final four games of the season.  The Cougars are a solid 21-9 ATS when the game is competitively-priced with a point spread of 7 or less, while the Chippewas are a wallet-breaking 2-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes when the line was 7 or less.  That bodes well for Washington State.  As does the fact that the Pac-12 has gone 18-9 in Bowl games when priced from -4 to -6 points, while the Mid American Conference has burned money as an underdog in that price range, with a 3-8 ATS record.  Finally, the Cougars were much better this season away from home than Central Michigan.  Washington State was 4-1 ATS in its road games, and covered by an average of 16.0 ppg, while the Chips were 3-3 ATS and only covered by 3.0 ppg.  Lay the points with Washington State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 am, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons went 10-3 SU and 6-6-1 ATS on the season, while Rutgers was 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS.  The Scarlet Knights didn't qualify for a bowl game, given their losing record, but were tabbed by the Gator Bowl officials to replace Texas A&M, which pulled out due to COVID-19.  It's true that Rutgers comes into this game off back to back blowout losses to Penn State (28-0) and Maryland (40-16).  But we'll grab the points with the Scarlet Knights, as double-digit underdogs have gone 17-3 ATS in the post-season off a loss by 24+ points.  Even better:  Rutgers is 67-42 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes, while Wake Forest is 4-18-1 ATS as a favorite of -5+ points vs. non-conference foes.  Take Rutgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over North Carolina.  Shane Beamer's Gamecocks were saddled with an exceptionally difficult schedule this season, and went 6-6.  Four of their six losses were against #3 Georgia, #19 Clemson, #23 Texas A&M, and #25 Kentucky.  And they also fell to SEC Conference foes Tennessee and Missouri, both of which made a Bowl game.  North Carolina, meanwhile, also played four teams ranked among the Top 25, and lost to three of the four:  #5 Notre Dame, #13 Pittsburgh, and #18 NC State.  The Tar Heels' lone win against a Top 25 team was a 58-55 victory vs. Wake Forest.  But the common thread among North Carolina's games vs. top-level teams was that it gave up a ton of points.  UNC surrendered 44 to Notre Dame, 55 to Wake Forest, 30 to Pittsburgh and 34 to NC State.  For the season, North Carolina went just 5-7 ATS, and gave up 31.5 ppg, yet it's favored by double-digits vs. South Carolina.  I'm generally not a fan of laying a lot of points in Bowl games, and even less so if a team has a swiss cheese defense, and has not shown a propensity to cover the number.  Indeed, NCAA Bowl teams have gone a woeful 0-10 ATS if they were favored by 7+ points, did not own a winning ATS record, and gave up 30+ points per game.  Grab the points with South Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:15 pm, on Tuesday, in the First Responder Bowl, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals over Air Force.  The Falcons are 9-3, yet have been installed as an underdog vs. the 6-6 Cardinals, who were blown out by 31 points in their previous game by Kentucky (and failed to cover the spread by 34 points).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with Air Force, but consider that, at Game 10 forward, underdogs that own a W/L percentage of at least .250 greater than their opponent have covered just 28.1% when not playing at home.  Even worse:  winning teams off back to back wins (like Air Force), and not getting more than 3 points, have covered just 37% in the post-season vs. foes off a loss, that failed to cover the spread in their previous game by 14+ points.  Louisville also falls into 154-97, 38-9 and 135-67 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, on Saturday, in the Camellia Bowl, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Georgia State.  Ball State punched its ticket for the post-season when it defeated Buffalo, 20-3, as a 6-point favorite, to end its season, and reach the .500 mark.  The Panthers were 7-5, and finished second in the Sun Belt's East division, and are in a Bowl game for the third straight year.  We'll fade Georgia State here, as Sun Belt teams are a woeful 1-14-1 ATS in the post-season when favored against foes off a point spread win.  Meanwhile, Ball State has been terrific as an underdog off less than 20 points away from Muncie, IN, as it's 9-1 ATS.  And the Cardinals also fall into a 42-17 ATS statistical system of mine, as well as a 156-97-4 ATS system of mine which plays on certain bowl underdogs of more than 3 points. 

At 3:30 pm, on Thursday afternoon, in the Frisco Football Classic, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks minus the points over North Texas.  The Mean Green stunned the then-undefeated Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners, 45-23, as an 8.5-point home underdog in their final regular season game.  But off that upset win over the 11-0 Roadrunners, we'll fade North Texas in this Bowl game.  Indeed, at Game 9 forward, teams off wins over undefeated teams have covered just 1 of their last 14.  That bodes well for Miami-Ohio in this game.  As does the fact that Conference USA underdogs playing away from home, priced from +2 to +10.5 in the post-season, have covered just 20 of 65 games.  Lay the points with Miami-Ohio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs over Texas San Antonio.  Both of these teams had spectacular seasons.  And they were similar in that each of them overachieved.  Texas San Antonio opened the season with an upset win as a 4.5-point underdog over Illinois.  That was our first big play of the College season, and the Roadrunners went on to win their first 11 games (8-3 ATS) before finally losing at North Texas in Game #12.  They then won their Conference USA Championship game against Western Kentucky, and we played on them in that victory, as well.  Likewise, San Diego State won 11 of its first 12 games (6-5-1 ATS) before losing the Mountain West Championship game to Utah State.  It's hard for me to pass up the Aztecs in this underdog role, given that it has given up just 14.2 ppg in its five road games this season.  In contrast, Texas San Antonio has surrendered 31.3 ppg in its six road games.  And the Roadrunners' record-setting RB, Sincere McCormick (1663 total yards), will skip the game, so he won't get injured in advance of April's NFL draft.  McCormick is San Antone's career leader in rushing yards (3,929), touchdowns (34) and all-purpose yards (4,438), and was just named Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year, in addition to several 2nd-team and 3rd-team All-American honors.  Mountain West Conference teams have gone 37-24 ATS as underdogs in the post-season, including 7-2 ATS when they owned a defense that gave up less than 19.5 ppg.  Finally, San Diego St. is 7-1 ATS its last eight as an underdog (and 24-12 ATS its last 36) off a double-digit conference defeat.  Take the Aztecs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Louisiana Lafayette.  The Herd were blown out, 53-21, by Western Kentucky at the end of their regular season.  But off that blowout loss, we'll step in and grab the points with Marshall on Saturday, as it's generally bounced back off poor games.  For example, the Thundering Herd are 10-0-2 ATS off a loss by more than 25 points, if they weren't laying 3+ points in their current game.  Even better:  Marshall's 12-3 ATS in the Bowl games, while the Rajin' Cajuns are 0-4 ATS in the Bowls since 2016.  Take Marshall + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners + the points over Fresno State.  Unless one is betting on a top-level team, it's generally not a good idea to lay a lot of points in Bowl games.  And Fresno State -- with its 9-3 record, and scoring margin less than 14 ppg -- certainly is not a top-level team.  The Bulldogs have been terrific as an underdog in the post-season (10-3 ATS), but horrid as a favorite/Pk in the Bowls, as it's 1-7 ATS!  Meanwhile, UTEP is 5-0 ATS its last 5, and 13-6 ATS its last 19 games as a rested underdog of +6 (or more) points.  Take the double-digits with Texas El Paso.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Friday, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders + the points over Toledo.  In this battle between the Mid-American Conference and Conference USA, we're going to take the points with Middle Tennessee St.  The Mid-American Conference teams have not fared well when laying points over the years, including 3-6 ATS over their last nine as a favorite of more than four in the Bowls.  Meanwhile, Conference USA teams have been strong as double-digit Bowl underdogs, as they've gone 12-7 ATS.  The Blue Raiders come into this game off an impressive upset win at Florida Atlantic, 27-17.  And that road victory enabled the Blue Raiders to qualify for a Bowl game.  Middle Tennessee is now 8-0 ATS its last eight when priced from +4 to +11 points.  Even better:  .500 (or better) double-digit underdogs, off a double-digit upset win, have cashed 61% of non-conference games over the last 42 years, including 75% of Bowl games.  Grab the points with Middle Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan.  Last week, we played on the Wolverines as a huge home underdog against Ohio State.  And the Wolves routed the Buckeyes, 42-27, to snap an 8-game losing streak to their rival.  But off that emotional, upset win, we will fade Jim Harbaugh's men on Saturday.  Indeed, Michigan is 0-10-1 ATS its last 11 games off an upset win, if Michigan was getting at least 4 points in that prior game.  That doesn't bode well for the Maize and Blue on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that the favored team has gone 2-7-1 ATS in Big 10 Conference Title games.  Or that Iowa is 17-5 ATS as a conference underdog of +7 (or more) points, if it owned a .666 (or better) win percentage.  Finally, Michigan falls into negative 22-52 and 74-122 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset wins, while Iowa falls into a very good 35-6 ATS post-season system of mine based on its season stats.  Take the Hawkeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Oklahoma State.  This game is a rematch of a game played back in October, in Stillwater.  The Cowboys were victorious at home in that game, 24-14, as a 3.5-point favorite.  Both teams were victorious last weekend.  The Bears edged Texas Tech, 27-24, as a 14-point home favorite, while Okie State outlasted its rival, Oklahoma, 37-33, as a 4-point home favorite.  We'll grab the points with Dava Aranda's Bears, as they're 15-3-1 ATS off a point spread loss, including 8-0-1 ATS away from home.  And they're also an awesome 13-2 ATS when playing with revenge, and not laying 7+ points.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 0-9 ATS away from home vs. .600 (or better) foes after playing their rival, Oklahoma, at home in Stillwater.  Take Baylor + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Utah.  These two Pac-12 rivals met in Utah last month, and the Utes routed Oregon, 38-7.  We had a big play on Utah in that game, as that was a stellar situation for the home team.  But we will switch gears and take the revenge-minded Ducks in this rematch.  Utah is a wallet-busting 6-23 ATS when favored (or PK) against a .571 (or better) revenge-minded foe.  And Oregon is a powerful 24-7-1 ATS away from home as an underdog of +3 or less points, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in the post-season.  Take the Ducks + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Western Kentucky.  Texas-San Antonio's 11-game win streak was snapped last weekend, when it lost, 45-23, as a 9.5-point road favorite to North Texas.  But the good news for UTSA is that it's back home in the Alamodome on this Friday evening, where it will host Western Kentucky, a team it defeated, 52-46, as a 3.5-point road underdog, in October.  And the Roadrunners have been installed as a home underdog for this rematch.  That bodes well for Texas-San Antonio, as it's 13-3 ATS its last 16 as an underdog, including 5-0 ATS when off a double-digit loss, and also a perfect 5-0 ATS when getting 4 points or less.  Even better:  home underdogs with a .700 (or better) win percentage, off a loss by more than 20 points, have cashed 64% the past 42 years against conference foes off a win, including a perfect 10-0 ATS if that foe was playing with revenge.  Take the Roadrunners + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over California.  Last week, the Bruins smashed cross-town rival, USC, by 29 points.  And that succeeded a 24-point blowout of Colorado here, at the Rose Bowl.  Tonight, they'll welcome the Golden Bears, who also won in blowout fashion last week, 41-11, against rival, Stanford.  We'll lay the points with UCLA, as home teams off back to back blowout wins by 24+ points, have cashed 61.1% since 1980 vs. foes also off a blowout 24-point SU/ATS win.  That bodes well for UCLA here.  As does the fact that this will be the 3rd straight road game for Cal.  And, unfortunately for the Bears, single-digit dogs off a conference win, have cashed just 18.7% of conference games, if they were playing their 3rd straight road game, and their opponent was also off a win.  Take UCLA to blow out the Bears.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Kentucky.  The Cards come into tonight's rivalry game off their two best games of the season.  Two weeks ago, they routed Syracuse, 41-3, as a 3-point home favorite.  And then they followed up that victory with a 62-22 destruction of Duke, in Durham.  Faithful followers know I love playing on home teams that can score.  And NCAA Football teams have cashed 65.3% at home since 1980 vs. foes off a SU win, if our home team was off back to back SU/ATS wins in which it scored more than 40 points, and it wasn't favored by more than 3 points in the current game.  Take Louisville minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Kansas.  WVU is 5-6 on the season, and needs to win this afternoon to attain eligibility for a Bowl game.  Kansas has played great the previous two weeks, as it won, 57-56, as a 31-point underdog at Texas.  And then it covered the 21-point spread last week, in Fort Worth, vs. TCU (but lost 31-28).  We'll fade Kansas here, as underdogs of more than 14 points, off back-to-back covers as an underdog by more than 14 points, have cashed just 30.3% since 1980.  Take West Virginia to blow out the Jayhawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks + the points over the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns.  On the surface, this looks like a mismatch, with the Warhawks on a 4-game losing streak, and the Cajuns on a 10-game win streak.  But this Sun Belt conference rivalry has been dominated by the underdog, and especially the ROAD underdog, which has gone a staggering 16-0 ATS since 1998!  And that's the way we'll look today, as Louisiana Lafayette also falls into a negative 80-153 ATS system of mine which fades certain .900 (or better) teams off point spread wins.  Take Monroe + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.