At 11 am, on Monday, our selection is on the Miami Ohio Red Hawks + the points over Mississippi State.  Miss State comes into this game off a 35-point upset win over their rival, Ole Miss.  But that shocking win only raised Miss State's record to a woeful 5-7 on the season.  So, the Bulldogs, along with Hawaii, were one of the two teams to make a Bowl game with a losing record.  But, unlike Hawaii (on which we played on Saturday), Mississippi State has been installed as a big favorite.  But teams favored by 7+ points in a Bowl game have covered a paltry 40.0% over the past 37 years when matched up against an opponent with a superior record, including 0-2 already this season (Colo State, Louisiana Tech).  That doesn't bode well for the Bulldogs on Monday morning.  And neither does the fact that College Football teams, off a cover by 10+ points, are 37% ATS as Double-Digit Bowl Favorites since 1999.   Take Miami-Ohio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over Middle Tennessee State.  This game will be played in Honolulu, at Aloha Field, so the Warriors will enjoy the home field advantage.  And it's tough to go against a team playing at home in a bowl game, and especially if wasn't an awful team against the spread during the season (and Hawaii was not).  Indeed, teams playing at home, with a .400 (or better) ATS season win percentage, have gone 8-0 ATS in the Bowls when getting more than 3 points, and have covered by an average of 13.44 ppg.  Take Hawaii.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Ohio.  Both of these teams lost their most recent game.  The Bobcats fell, 29-23, to Western Michigan, while Troy State lost, 28-24, as a 7-point favorite at Georgia Southern.  But off that upset loss, we'll lay the points with the Trojans, as they're 8-0 ATS their last 8 off an upset loss.  And they also fall into a 94-54 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses immediately before a bowl game.  Take Troy State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on Navy + the points over Louisiana Tech.  The Midshipmen got bit by the injury bug, which was the primary reason they lost their last two games -- vs. Temple in the American Athletic Conf. Title Game and, then, vs. Army a week later.  Of course, the pointspread has been adjusted upward to account for the injuries, and I'm more than happy to grab the points with the underdog in this Armed Forces Bowl.  Navy falls into a 48-22 ATS Bowl system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses.  Moreover, the Middies have been the best team in college football ATS when playing away from home over the past 25 years.  Since 1991, Navy is 106-55 ATS away from home, including 26-12 ATS off back to back losses, and 74-33 ATS as an underdog.  Take Navy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Old Dominion.  Eastern Michigan falls into several of my favorite Bowl Systems, with records of 107-50, 121-67 and 136-89 ATS.  Additionally, Eastern Michigan plays with revenge from a 38-34 home loss suffered to Old Dominion last season, and a 17-3 loss to the Monarchs the year before.  But underdogs of more than 3 points are an awesome 64.2% ATS in the post-season since 1994 when playing with revenge!  Take Eastern Michigan + the points.  NCAA Football Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals + the points over the Colorado State Rams, as Idaho falls into 28-7, 38-16 and 16-0 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset wins (Colorado State stunned San Diego State, 63-31, as an 11.5-point underdog in its last game).  Let's take a look at our 28-7 ATS angle.  That goes against teams that won outright as underdogs of more than 10 points, if they scored 48+ in that victory.  And if our 'play-against' team (here, Colorado State) has a W/L percentage of .583 (or better) than our 28-7 angle zooms to 12-1 ATS.  The Vandals certainly will be the team most in the stands will be cheering for this evening, as the game will be played less than 300 miles from Idaho's main campus in Moscow.  And we'll grab the points with Idaho.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, in the Poinsettia Bowl, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over BYU.  The Cougars have won four straight games, while Wyoming's dropped its last two.  But none of the Cougars' last four opponents (Cincinnati, Southern Utah, Massachusetts, Utah State) qualified for a Bowl game.  In contrast, Wyoming's two losses to end the season were against New Mexico and San Diego State.  And both of those teams played in a Bowl game.  One of the things I like to do in the post-season is wager on teams off back to back losses, if they're playing a favored opponent off 3+ wins.  Since 1980, our underdogs in this situation have cashed 72% of the time!  Take Wyoming + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers finished the season with a better record (both SU and ATS) than Memphis, but that largely was due to a much easier schedule.  Western Kentucky benefited from playing in a weaker conference (Conference USA) than did Memphis (American Athletic).  Indeed, the 2nd best team (Louisiana Tech) this season in Conference USA would have rated 6th or 7th this year in the American Athletic Conference.  When the Hilltoppers stepped outside of their conference this season, they fared very poorly, with just one ATS win in five games.  Even worse:  in the regular season, they also failed to cover the spread against the teams rated #2 and #3 in power rating in Conference USA (LA Tech and Middle Tennessee St), though they did avenge their regular season defeat with a home win in the Conference USA Title game vs. LA Tech.  Regardless, much of Western Kentucky's success this season was against very soft competition; they didn't cover the spread in any of their four games when they weren't favored by more than 11 points.  Take Memphis + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane laid an egg (at least in Las Vegas) in its last game, as it was favored by 22.5, yet only won by three points vs. Cincinnati, 40-37.  Now, Tulsa is laying double digits to Central Michigan, notwithstanding the fact that the Golden Hurricane's defense leaves much to be desired.  Indeed, Tulsa's giving up 31.5 ppg (against opponents that score two points less, on average), and that number soars to 36.5 ppg away from home.  Generally speaking, it's a real bad idea to lay points with bad defensive clubs in bowl games.  For example, teams that give up 23+ ppg have covered just 25% of Bowl games if laying more than a TD to a team that scores at least 25 ppg.  Grab the points with Central Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners over New Mexico.  These two teams know each other well.  They've played twice in the past four seasons, with each winning outright as an underdog on the other's home field.  So that bodes well for Texas San Antonio this afternoon, as this game will be played at New Mexico's stadium, in Albuquerque.  And I won't pass up the points with the Roadrunners, as they're a much better defensive club than New Mexico.  The Lobos are giving up a whopping 32.4 ppg (more than 5 points more than their opponents would otherwise average).  In contrast, Texas San Antonio has held its opponents to 2.5 ppg BELOW their offensive averages.  It's true that Texas San Antonio comes into this game with just a 6-6 record (compared to 8-4 for New Mexico).  But underdogs that didn't have a winning regular season have gone 37-20 ATS in the post-season vs. foes that did have a winning year.  Take Texas San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over the West Virginia Mountaineers.  Yes, it's true that Baylor has lost its last five games, both SU and ATS.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Jim Grobe's troops in their final game of the season, on the road, in Morgantown, against the 9-2 Mountaineers.  But consider that, over the past 26 years, College Football teams have covered 67% of the time off 3 SU/ATS losses in their final game vs. .600 (or better) foes off a win.  We saw an example of this just last weekend when Syracuse (+25), which had lost its previous 3 games by an average of 33.33 ppg, lost to Pitt by just 15 points to cover the spread.  I like Baylor to cover this inflated pointspread as well, as it falls into 124-75, 65-29 and 62-29 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off blowout losses.  Take the Bears + the points.  Dog Shocker!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks + the points over Louisiana Lafayette.  Both teams come into this game on 3-game ATS win streaks.  Monroe did lose its last game, straight-up, 42-17, at Appalachian St, but covered the 26.5-point spread.  Meanwhile, the Rajin' Cajuns pulled a big upset in their last game, as they won outright, 24-19, as a 6-point home underdog to Arkansas State.  That upset win sets up the Cajuns in several negative 'letdown' systems of mine, with records of 123-194, 67-114 and 54-107 ATS.  Those angles would be enough for me to pull the trigger on the Warhawks, but there are two other reason I love the home underdog on Saturday.  One is that Louisiana Monroe last played two weeks ago, so it will be very well-rested for this rivalry game.  And rested teams off a loss have covered 79% since 1980 as underdogs (or PK) vs. foes off an upset win that are playing their final game of the season.  And the other reason I love Monroe is that the underdog in this rivalry has covered 15 of 18, including a perfect 6-0 ATS when getting 7+ points, and a perfect 8-0 ATS off a loss by more than two touchdowns.  Take Louisiana Monroe + the points.  Rivalry Underdog of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Oklahoma State.  This game will decide the Big 12 Championship, as both teams come into the game with 9-2 records, overall, and 8-0 (Oklahoma) and 7-1 (Oklahoma St.) conference records.  We'll lay the points with the Sooners, as they fall into 'momentum' systems of mine, with records of 294-201, 168-104 and 145-75 ATS, following their 56-28 win at West Virginia in their last game. and their 45-24 win over Baylor two games back.  Those three angles all play on certain teams off big, back to back SU/ATS wins.  Even better:  Oklahoma State is a dreadful 16-36 ATS since 1999 when priced from +6 to +19 points, including 3-8 ATS vs. the Sooners, while the Sooners are an awesome 28-11-1 ATS as a home favorite, in the same price range (-6 to -19), in the same period.  Take the Sooners.  Big 12 Conference Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Navy Midshipmen minus the points over Temple, as it's backed by 157-87, 135-54 and 37-9 ATS systems of mine.  The Midshipmen have won 4 straight games, including two blowouts on the road in their last two (75-31 over SMU; 66-31 over ECU).  I won't step in front of this freight train at home, as single-digit home favorites have covered 62% over the past 37 years after scoring 60+ points in their previous game (including 3-1 ATS this season).  And, yes, it's true that Temple has won its last six games, and covered its last 11, on the heels of a defense which has given up just 23 points over its last four games (and 17.8 ppg on the season).  But teams with a better defense (more than 12 ppg better than their foe) have actually been big-time money-burners in conference title games, as they're 0-7 ATS.  Take Navy.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats + the points over Western Michigan.  The Broncos have yet to lose straight-up on the field this season, as they're a perfect 12-0.  They're also 9-3 ATS.  Meanwhile, Ohio is 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS.  But we'll take the double-digits with Ohio, as Western Michigan falls into negative 8-37 and 69-122 ATS systems of mine that fade certain unbeaten teams late in the season.  Even worse for Western Michigan:  Mid-American Conference teams with a win percentage greater than .800 have been awful in the Title game vs. foes that don't have a win percentage greater than .800, as they've covered just 1 of 10 games since 1998, including two outright upset losses as 15-point (Ball St, 2008) and 20-point (N. Illinois, 2010) favorites.  Yikes!  Take Ohio + the points.  MAC Conference Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Wyoming.  Last week, we cashed our Mountain West Game of the Year on Wyoming, which won outright as a double-digit underdog vs. San Diego St.  But I look for a letdown tonight, on the road, vs. the Lobos, as Wyoming falls into a negative 54-105 ATS system of mine (same angle which I used yesterday on Memphis over Houston following Houston's upset win over Louisville).   Even worse:  the Cowboys have covered a paltry 33% on the road in conference games off an upset win since 1980, and are also 2-7 ATS their last 9 vs. New Mexico.  Like Wyoming, the Lobos are also playing very good football, with five wins in their last six games (4-2 ATS).  And New Mexico's an awesome 17-6 ATS vs. foes off an upset win since 1980, including a perfect 6-0 ATS since October 31, 2009.  Take the points with the home dog Lobos.  NCAA Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Utah Utes + the points over Colorado, as Utah falls into 59-7 and 143-63 ATS systems of mine following its upset loss as a double-digit home favorite, at the hands of Oregon.  But Utah had covered its previous three games before that surprising defeat, and I expect it to rebound on Saturday vs. Colorado.  Indeed, the Utes are a money-making 23-7-1 ATS as road underdogs off a loss since 1987, including 10-1 ATS if they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in their previous game.  And Utah's 16-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs off a pointspread loss the previous week.  Take the points with the Utes.  NCAA Underdog of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Temple.  These two teams come into this game with opposite records.  ECU is 3-8, while Temple is 8-3.  And in Vegas, ECU is 2-8 ATS, while Temple is 9-1 ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the 'hot' Owls and against the 'cold' Pirates.  But I wouldn't do that if I were you.  Indeed, teams (like Temple) off 5 or more ATS wins in a row have covered just 28 of 84 games vs. foes off 3+ ATS losses in a row.  Take East Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the UTEP Miners + the points over North Texas.  The Miners are 3-8 on the season, so they won't be going to a Bowl game.  Thus, this game, in front of their home fans, will be their final one of the season.  And I fully expect a big effort this afternoon.  They'll face a North Texas squad which upset Southern Miss, 29-23, as a 6-point underdog last week.  Unfortunately, for the Mean Green, they're 0-13 SU and 1-11-1 ATS in conference games, off an upset win, since 2005 (including 0-8 ATS on the road).  Yikes! And North Texas also falls into negative 54-104 ATS 'letdown' system of mine, based on its upset win last week.  Take Texas El Paso + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Michigan State.  We've had good success in the Nittany Lions' games this season, as we went against them at Michigan, and got the $$$ when the Wolverines blew them out, 49-10.  Then, later in the season, we played on the Nitts against Iowa in PSU's 27-point win.  Here, we'll lay the points with the red-hot Lions, as they've won 7 in a row, and covered their last six.  In stark contrast, the Spartans have lost eight of their last nine, with their only victory against league doormat, Rutgers (does that win even count?).  It's true that MSU played its heart out last week in a narrow, 1-point loss, at home to Ohio State.  But things will be MUCH different on the road, in Happy Valley.  MSU is a poor 19-32 ATS on the road off a home loss.  Lay the points with the Nittany Lions.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals minus the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars defeated Presbyterian last week, 31-7, at home, while the Vandals had last week off to rest and prepare for this contest.  And that extra week of rest has triggered a super 99-45 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested, revenge-minded teams vs. conference opponents.  And Idaho does have revenge from a 52-45 loss to the Jaguars last season -- a game the Vandals actually led by 24-0 in the 2nd quarter.  The Jaguars are an awful 0-6 ATS on the road off a home win the past 3 seasons, and are 3-8 ATS their last 11 games away from home, overall.  Meanwhile, Idaho has cashed 7 of its last 8 games when playing with revenge, and is a strong 75% ATS since 1999 off a win, if it was playing with revenge.  Take the Vandals minus the points.  Below the Radar Blowout.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Ohio State.  It's true that the Wolverines have lost the last 4 meetings to their rival, Ohio State.  But none of those teams were as good as this club.  And it's not often that one finds the best defensive team in the country installed as an underdog.  But that's the case on Saturday, as Jim Harbaugh's crew will be getting points from the Buckeyes in Columbus.  And the Wolverines are the only team in the country giving up less than 11 points per game.  We'll grab the points with the Maize and Blue, as revenge-minded .666 (or better) underdogs of +6.5 or more points have covered 100% percent of the time (13-0 ATS) since 1981 off a win, if their defense doesn't give up more than 13.2 ppg (at Game 10 forward).  Take Michigan + the points.  Big 10 Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Kentucky.  Last week, we played against Louisville, and had our biggest play of that week on Houston, which was a 17-point underdog at home vs. Louisville.  The Cougars won outright, 36-10, so the result didn't really shock us.  But I love the Cardinals to bounce back off that defeat, as College Football teams favored by more than 18 points, off an upset loss on the road where they were favored by 8+ points, have covered a whopping 63% of the time over the past 37 years.  Even better:  Kentucky is a poor 18-26 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss, while Louisville is a super 19-8 ATS its last 27 off an upset defeat, including a perfect 7-0 when priced from -11 to -31.  Take the Cardinals.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats over Arizona State.  The Sun Devils are giving up an atrocious 38.4 points per game, yet find themselves installed as a small road favorite at rival Arizona.  We'll take the homestanding Wildcats, and go against ASU, as road favorites of 13 points or less (or PK) that give up 36.9+ ppg (at Game 5 forward) have covered just 55 of 143 games since 1980, including 1-6 ATS this season.  The underdog is also 23-12 in this series.  Take Arizona. NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Friday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Houston.  Last week, we had our #1 play of the entire week on the Houston Cougars over Louisville.  Houston went off as a 17-point underdog vs. the then-No. 3 ranked Cardinals, but won outright by a 36-10 score!  However, off that most impressive victory, we'll switch gears and actually go against the Cougars this week as a road favorite, as I look for a massive letdown by Tom Herman's men.  Certainly, the rumors surrounding the departure of the popular Houston coach won't help.  The latest has him headed to LSU as a replacement for Les Miles, who was fired earlier this season.  So, in his possible "swan song" at Houston, the game could actually take a bit of a back seat to the coaching carousel.  But regardless of all of that "noise," the fact remains that this is a major let-down situation for the Cougars, as they fall into negative 20-49, 54-104 and 14-52 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset home wins over top-level teams.  There's also a bit of uncertainty on the Memphis side with respect to who will be starting under center.  First-team QB Riley Ferguson is a game time decision, though I actually believe he will play, as he has been taking snaps in practice this week.  But he's recovering from a concussion, so there's always the chance he won't be deemed to be fully recovered on game day, and backup Jason Stewart will get the call.  Regardless, we'll grab the points with the home dog in this early game on Friday.  NCAA High Noon Hanging.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Akron Zips + the points over Ohio.  The Bobcats are 7-4, after losing, 27-20, at Central Michigan last week, while Akron is 5-6, on the heels of a 3-game losing streak.  The Zips, therefore, need to win to gain eligibility for a bowl game.  And teams with a 5-6 record, looking to become bowl-eligible, have covered 63% of the time in their final regular season game vs. foes with a win percentage of .600 (or better).  And though it's true that the Zips are unsettled at the quarterback position, the pointspread, by my estimation, has been over-inflated relative to the issue at hand.  Take Akron + the points.  MAC Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Stanford.  This will be the 119th meeting in this rivalry known as "The Big Game."  And I love getting points with teams in rivalry games, provided they can move the football.  And California can certainly do that, as Davis Webb leads the 3rd most prolific passing offense this year in College Football.  It's true that California has lost its last three games, while Stanford is on a 3-game win streak.  But like with many heated rivalries, the records generally go out the window.  Besides, home teams have covered 61.3% the past 8 seasons off 3+ losses, if their win pct was .400 or better, including 75% when getting more than 6 points.  Take Cal.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over San Diego State.  The Aztecs come into this game with a 9-1 record, and are ranked #24 in the country.  They also snuck into the rankings earlier this season (their first time since 1995), but then promptly played their worst game of the season when they lost at South Alabama, 42-24, as 19.5-point favorites.  But they're on a six-game win streak, and have covered four straight games.  But this will be a very difficult game for San Diego State to win.  Wyoming is 7-3, with wins (and covers) in five of its last six games.  And Wyoming also falls into 137-63 and 72-26 ATS systems of mine that play against certain winning teams off big ATS wins.  This will be Wyoming's final home game of the season, and San Diego State is a poor 7-14 ATS vs. foes playing their final home game.  The Cowboys are 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS at home since last Thanksgiving, and need to win to keep pace with Boise State and New Mexico at the top of the conference's Mountain Division (all three teams are tied at 5-1).  Take the points with Wyoming.  Mountain West Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Michigan.  Last week, Jim Harbaugh's men suffered their first loss of the season, as they fell at the gun by a single point, 14-13, to the Iowa Hawkeyes.  Even worse for the Maize and Blue:  they may have also lost their starting QB, Wilton Speight, who broke his collarbone.  Regardless of who starts at QB for U-M, we're going to fade it on this Saturday.  And that's because teams off a loss as an 18-point (or bigger) favorite the previous week are an awful 29.7% ATS since 1980, including 2-14 ATS when priced from -17 to -24 points.  Take Indiana.  Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Buffalo.  The 14th-ranked Broncos are a spotless 10-0 this season, and are one of two remaining unbeaten teams (along with Alabama).   And their schedule conferred an advantage on them this week, as they haven't played for 11 days, while Buffalo will have had just seven days between its games.  And undefeated teams, with a record of 8-0 or better) have covered 75% at home in the regular season since 1988 when playing with extra rest.  With Western Michigan covering 13 of 15 against foes not off a SU/ATS win, we'll lay the points with the Broncos.  NCAA Roadkill.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over Duke.  We played on the Panthers last week as our "Underdog Shocker," and were rewarded not just with a cover, but an outright win as a 21.5-point underdog vs. #2 ranked Clemson.  A lot of folks might look for a letdown on Saturday, but not me.  First, the Panthers will be at home, and when teams suffer letdowns, they tend to happen on the road.  And, second, Duke comes into this game off, arguably, a bigger win, as it defeated its absolute biggest rival -- 13th ranked North Carolina -- as a 10.5-point home underdog.  Like Pitt, Duke won that game by a single point (28-27), and road underdogs are an awful 38.5% since 1980 off wins as a double-digit dog, if they're matched up against a foe also off a win.  Take Pitt.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Oklahoma State.  This is a critical game for both of these teams.  The 13th ranked Cowboys are 6-1 in Conference play, and are trying to stay in position to win the Big 12 Championship, while TCU still needs to win at least one more game to become eligible for a bowl game.  The big factor for me is that TCU had last week off to rest and prepare, while Okie State was involved in a tough, 45-44 win vs. Texas Tech.  The Horned Frogs fall into several of my best systems that involve playing on rested teams against unrested foes (with records of 43-11, 73-21, 185-119 and 111-54 ATS).  Also, the Horned Frogs are a super 19-5 ATS when playing with rest in the regular season, including a perfect 8-0 ATS at home since 2007.  Take TCU. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Iowa.  The Hawkeyes pulled a big upset last week, when they stunned #3 ranked Michigan at the gun with a game-winning field goal.  Of course, we weren't stunned, as we had a huge Elite Info play on the Hawkeyes.  But we'll switch gears and take Illinois in a home underdog role on Saturday.  Indeed, home dogs are a strong 62.2% ATS over the past 37 years vs. foes off upsets as dogs of +15 or more points (and 75% when getting more than 8 points).  Take Illinois.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos minus the points over UNLV.  We played on the Broncos last week vs. Hawaii, and easily got the $$$ when they blew out the Rainbow Warriors, 52-16, as 23-point favorites.  They've favored again by a large margin tonight, and we will once again lay it.  Boise State is 62-39 ATS off a double-digit conference win, and it's also playing its final home game of the season.  That bodes well for the Broncos, as they fall into 53-17, 90-59 and 49-13 ATS "last home game" systems of mine.  Meanwhile, UNLV checks in off a 69-66 upset win over Wyoming, which has triggered two negative systems of mine, with records of 45-102 and 56-100 ATS.  Even worse: the Rebels are a horrid 1-15 straight-up and 2-14 ATS since 2004 when playing against an opponent in its final home game of the season, including 0-8 ATS if the Rebels are playing with revenge from a loss the previous season!  Last year, Boise blew out UNLV by 28 points, as a 21-point favorite.  They'll get the win and cover again on Friday.  Take Boise State.  Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Louisville, as Houston falls into 28-0, 41-4 and 56-20 ATS systems of mine.  This will be a very tough test for the Cardinals, who are stepping up greatly in class (from what they've experienced much of the season).  The Cardinals were favored by 35, 19, 32, 25 and 34 points in their five most recent games.  And none of those five foes currently have a winning record in ACC Conference play (they're a combined 8-23).  Now, they're going to be playing an out-of-conference foe in Houston, which is 8-2 on the season.  And one of the things I like to do is go against certain teams after playing three straight games where they were favored by 20+ points, if they're now stepping up in class against a much more competitive opponent.  Indeed, I have a 53-21 ATS system on Houston as a big underdog vs. Louisville tonight which encapsulates that theory.  Finally, the Cougars are 11-0-1 ATS as underdogs of +2 or more points since November 17, 2012.  Take the points with Houston.  NCAA Football Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas over Ohio.  The Bobcats have won and covered their last 3 games, while Central Michigan comes into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses.  But Central Michigan will be playing its final home game of the season tonight.  And I love betting on teams off a loss, if they're playing their final home game of the season, and they're off 3 ATS losses, overall, while their opponent is off 3 ATS wins.  Those home teams have covered 76.1% since 1980 when not laying more than 3 points.  The Chippewas also fall into 121-76, 66-41 and 55-15 ATS systems of mine.  Take Central Michigan.  Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Bowling Green.  The Falcons snapped a 7-game losing streak with a road win at Akron last Wednesday.  But that upset win has triggered several negative systems of mine, with records of 147-62, 159-69 and 162-75 ATS since 1980.  The key last week was that Akron coughed up the football six times.  But I wouldn't expect such good fortune to occur two weeks in a row.  And especially since Bowling Green has only won the turnover battle twice in its 10 games this season, while Kent State has only lost the turnover battle three times in its 10 games.  The Falcons are also a dismal 2-11 ATS following a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers.  Take Kent State. NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over California.  Mike Leach's Cougars have been dominant since stumbling out of the gate with an 0-2 record.  Since the, Wazzu has ripped off seven straight wins.  They've also covered five of their last eight games.  Their very best win was last week when they destroyed Arizona 69-7, as a 14-point favorite.  They'll now take on the defensively-challenged Bears, who gave up 66 points to Washington last week (and who have given up 47, 49, 45 and 66 points in their last four games).  I look for Washington State to blow the doors off of Cal, as Wazzu falls into 179-79, 116-40 and 15-1 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine.  And California is a dreadful 9-18 ATS when the O/U line is greater than 65 points.  Take Washington State.  Pac-12 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan, as the Hawkeyes fall into 86-47, 130-69 and 135-63 ATS systems.  At the start of the season, I predicted that the University of Michigan would win the National Championship (at 12-1 odds).  Certainly, it is in great shape after starting the season 9-0.  But this will be its toughest road game of the season-to-date.  And Iowa comes into this game at Kinnick Stadium off back to back losses.  The Hawkeyes are a solid 11-2 ATS as home dogs of +3.5 or more points off back to back losses, and 30-17-1 ATS since 1980 off back to back ATS losses when not laying 5+ points.  Even better:  they're 32-10 ATS in Conference games off a road loss by more than 8 points (including 13-1 ATS since 2001).  Meanwhile, Michigan is a poor 10-25-1 ATS on the road off a Big 10 Conference win.  Take Iowa.  Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Arkansas.  Last week, Arkansas blew out Florida, 31-10, while the Tigers lost a very hard-fought game to Alabama.  The score in the LSU/Alabama game was 0-0 through three quarters, but Alabama scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to win 10-0.  I look for Louisiana State to bounce back off that shutout defeat, as road favorites of -3 or more points have covered 68% off a shutout loss over the past 37 years.  And, even though there’s nothing wrong with 68%, we can improve our stat to a perfect 100%, 11-0 ATS if our opponent won its last game by 4 or more points, which Arkansas did.  Take LSU minus the points.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos minus the points over Hawaii.  The Rainbow Warriors were shut out last year by Boise, 55-0.  And they also lost last week, 55-0, to San Diego State!  Hawaii has not been bouncing back off losses, lately, as it's 3-11 ATS its last 14 off a defeat.  Meanwhile, Boise's 71-44 ATS off a conference win, and it falls into a system of mine which is 14-0 ATS its last 14.  That angle plays on certain .801 (or better) teams off an ATS loss.  Lay the points with Boise.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over South Florida, as Memphis falls into 99-55 and 102-44 ATS systems of mine.  The Tigers got off the schneid last week when they smashed SMU 51-7, as a 3-point favorite, to move to 6-3 on the season.  And that big, 44-point blowout win is a 'buy signal' for me.  Especially when one looks at the South Florida defense, which has given up 46 and 45 points in its last two games, and over 30 ppg for the season.  Unfortunately for the Bulls, road favorites have only covered 34 of 100 games if their defense gives up 28+ points per game, and their opponent has a win percentage greater than .560.  Take Memphis.  Below the Radar Blowout.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs minus the points over Texas San Antonio.  The Bulldogs have won six in a row, and covered their last five.  And I certainly won't step in front of this freight train, here, at home.  In its last five games, the Bulldogs have scored 55, 56, 44, 61 and 45 points!  That bodes well for La Tech today, as home teams have covered 61% of regular season conference games over the past 37 years if they're off 3 SU/ATS Wins, and scored 150+ points in those 3 victories.  Additionally, the Bulldogs are 25-12 ATS as a home favorite of -6+ points.  Take La Tech.  Conference USA Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over Vanderbilt.  The Tigers have lost their last 5 games (both SU and ATS), yet find themselves installed as a favorite vs. Vandy, which covered last week at Auburn (losing 23-16, as a 25-point dog).  It may look tough to take the Tigers, given how they've burned money in Vegas, but home favorites off ATS losses in each of their previous five games have covered a sensational 61% over the past 37 years vs. foes off an ATS win.  And Missouri's an awesome 25-8 ATS when favored at home off a loss.  Take the Tigers.  NCAA Football Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Clemson, as the Tigers fall into a negative 69-130 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain .900 (or better) teams off big wins.  Last week, the Tigers shut out Syracuse 54-0, but undefeated favorites of more than 18 points, off shutout wins, have only covered 36 of 100 at home since 1980.  And while Pittsburgh was blown out last week, 51-28, by Miami, I look for it to bounce back, as winning teams are 51-24 ATS double-digit road dogs vs. conference foes if they're off a conference road loss by more than 20 points.  Take Pittsburgh + the points.  Underdog Shocker. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte 49ers minus the points over Rice.  The 49ers are on a roll, as they've covered their last four games, including a stunning 38-27 win at Southern Miss last week, as a 17-point underdog.  Some might look for a letdown, but not me.  Since 1980, double-digit favorites are a super 60-37 ATS at home in Conference games following an upset win on the road as a dog of more than 6 points, if they're playing an opponent off a loss.  Rice comes into this game off back to back losses, and 3 straight ATS losses.  Lay the points with Charlotte.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over South Carolina.  It's true that the Gators are banged-up, including at the quarterback position, where Austin Appleby will get the start for an injured Luke Del Rio.  Regardless, we'll lay the points with Florida, as it falls into an 85-43 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams to bounce back off a pointspread loss when matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS win.  Additionally, the Gators' defense has been sensational at home this season.  In its 4 home games, it's allowed 7, 7, 0 and 14 points (7 ppg) compared to 25 ppg in its 3 games on its opponent's home field.  Meanwhile, in South Carolina's three road games, it has scored 13, 14 and 10 points (compared to 22.67 ppg in its home games).  Take Florida.  HIGH NOON HANGING!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns + the points over Georgia Southern.  Last week, the Cajuns were upset at home by Idaho, 23-13, as a 4-point favorite.  Elijah McGuire (727 yards, 5 TDs) was a bit banged-up in that game, and mustered only 55 yards rushing.  But he's been upgraded to 'probable' for tonight's game, and that bodes well for the Cajuns, as he's the school's 2nd leading rusher in its history.  Additionally, the Cajuns fall into a 97-31 ATS system of mine which plays on certain road underdogs to bounce back off upset home losses.  Take the points with La-Lafayette.  NCAA ELITE INFO.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Akron minus the points over Bowling Green.  Bowling Green has won just one game this season -- and by a single point, 27-26.  That game was against Division II foe, North Dakota.  So, the Falcons are 0-8 this year against Division 1 foes.  They're also an awful 2-7 ATS.  This will be Akron's final home game of the season.  And it's won (and covered) its Final Home Game the past 3 seasons.  The Zips are 5-5 on the season, and need at least one more win to become bowl eligible.  Akron falls into a 38-15 ATS 'revenge' system of mine.  Take the Zips minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over the Northern Illinois Huskies.  Toledo hasn't beaten the Huskies since 2009, but they fall into a 67-38 ATS Revenge system of mine.  The Rockets are 7-2 on the season, and come into this game off a 48-17 win last Wednesday.  Meanwhile, the Huskies are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS.  Toledo's a super 46-19 ATS when priced from -3 to -30.5 points against foes that didn't own a winning SU or ATS record, including 6-0-1 ATS over the past 2 years.  Take Toledo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Alabama.  The Crimson Tide have done little wrong this season, and are clearly the nation's best team.  They're not only 8-0 SU, but they're 6-2 ATS, and have covered the spread by an average of 7 ppg.  But don't be surprised if they lose outright on Saturday night to the 5-2 Tigers.  There are many reasons to think Ed Orgeron's squad will be able to get the win in Baton Rouge.  First, they had last week off, and fall into several of my best systems that play on certain rested home teams.  Second, even though they've lost twice, both were by less than a touchdown, away from home, against teams currently ranked among the Top 10 (Wisconsin, Auburn).  But LSU currently rides a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, including a 38-21 blowout of Ole Miss, as a 9-point favorite, in their last game.  And, LSU also falls into a jaw-dropping 28-0 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back wins against opponent that have covered the spread, on average, by more than 3 ppg.  Finally, the Tigers are 8-0 ATS in Baton Rouge after scoring more than 34 points in their previous game.  Take LSU.  SEC Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over East Carolina.  The Golden Hurricane are on a roll, with wins in five of their last six games (and ATS wins in their last three).  Last week, Tulsa went into Memphis, and smoked the Tigers, 59-30, as a 6-point road dog.  And that followed a 50-27 blowout of Tulane two weeks ago, as a 10.5-point favorite.  This week, Tulsa will look to get a big monkey off its back, as it's lost the previous six meetings to the Pirates.  But Tulsa falls into 51-20 and 66-38 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Even better:  since 1980, home teams have cashed 70.9 percent of the time off back to back double-digit wins and covers, if they scored more than 100 points over those two victories, and the line in the current game was less than 18 points.  Finally, the Pirates are a wallet-busting 0-10 ATS since Nov. 29, 2013 in conference games when not favored by 6+ points.  Take Tulsa.  AAC Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Iowa.  Penn State's played just one game the entire season.  And that was at Michigan (a game I attended in person), when it lost 49-10, as a 16-point underdog.  We actually had a big play on the Wolverines that day, so PSU's poor performance didn't surprise me.  But look at the Nitts' other seven games.  They won by 20 over Kent St. in their opener (as a 24-point fave), and then pushed the 3-point spread at Pitt in their next game.  Then, in their two games sandwiched around the Michigan loss, they won 34-27, as an 8.5 point favorite vs. Temple, and 29-26, as a 3.5-point favorite vs. Minnesota.  So, yes, they were 0-4-1 ATS to start the season -- but three of their four ATS losses were by a combined 6 points.  Since then, they've rolled.  They blew out Maryland, 38-14, as a 2-point underdog, before upsetting Ohio State, 24-21, as a 17.5-point dog.  Many thought they would suffer a letdown last week.  But they had their best game of the season when they went into West Lafayette, and walloped Purdue, 62-24, as a 14.5-point favorite.  That was PSU's 3rd straight cover (by an average of 23.33 ppg), and I won't step in front of this freight train, and especially not at home when laying a reasonable number.  Indeed, single-digit home favorites are a reliable 73% ATS over the past 37 years following a SU/ATS win the previous week, in which they scored 60+ points.  Take Penn State.  Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack + the points over Florida State, as it falls into a 50-14 ATS system of mine.  The Seminoles lost a huge emotional game vs. the #2-ranked Clemson Tigers last week.  Florida State had an 8-point lead in the 4th quarter, but collapsed, and lost 37-34.  I think it will be extremely difficult for the Seminoles to pick themselves off the mat for this road game, as that loss all but eliminated them from the Atlantic Division title race.  Indeed, the Seminoles fall into a negative 1-15 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off close losses to undefeated teams.  Even worse:  NC State has lost three straight in this series, but falls into a 70-31 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain .428 (or better) revenge-minded home teams off a loss.  Finally, the Wolfpack are a solid 25-12 ATS when playing with revenge from a conference loss, while Florida State is 1-10 ATS as a favorite off an ATS win.  Take NC State + the points.  NCAA Roadkill play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Oregon.  Oregon brought in ex-Michigan head man Brady Hoke to coordinate its defense.  And the results have not been good.  Oregon is allowing an eye-opening 46 ppg, which is the primary reason it has only covered the spread in one of its eight games this season.  We've gone against the Ducks a few times this season (because of its swiss cheese defense), and will do so once again tonight.  Southern Cal, no doubt, will be seeking a measure of revenge after being blown out by Oregon the past 2 meetings.  Last year, the Ducks won 48-28, in Eugene.  And they also won here in Los Angeles, 62-51, in the meeting before that.  But Oregon was the better team those seasons, and were favored in each game.  Indeed, USC hasn't been favored to win vs. Oregon since 2009.  And the last 3 games the Trojans were favored by double-digits vs. Oregon, they won by 34, 25 and 32 points, easily covering all 3 by an average of 15.17 ppg.  Oregon falls into negative 44-101 and 55-98 ATS systems of mine that play against certain teams with bad defenses playing away from home.  The Trojans have cashed 71% at home over the past 23 seasons off back to back ATS wins.  Lay the points with USC.  Payback Payday!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi minus the points over Charlotte.  The Golden Eagles failed to cover the spread for the 4th straight game last week, when they bested Marshall, 24-14, but lost ATS as a 17-point favorite.  We'll lay the points with the Golden Eagles, as they fall into 66-30 and 73-24 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off 4+ ATS losses.  Additionally, Charlotte comes into this game off an upset win, two weeks ago, at Marshall, 27-24, as an 8-point underdog.  But that upset win has triggered several "letdown" systems of mine, including one with a 30-83 ATS record since 1980.  Take Southern Miss.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Baylor.  The Bears were upset by the Texas Longhorns last week on a field goal with less than a minute remaining.  One of the things I like to do is go against certain teams off their first loss of the season following 5+ wins to start the year, as these teams suffer emotional letdowns more often than not following their initial defeat.  Indeed, Baylor falls into negative 46-83, 25-56, and 47-94 ATS "Bubble Burst" systems of mine.  Moreover, TCU was upset by Texas Tech last Saturday, 27-24, as a double-digit favorite.  But that upset loss has set up the Frogs in a super 141-62 ATS "Bounce Back" angle of mine.  Take TCU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Oklahoma State.  Last week, Oklahoma State upset previously-undefeated West Virginia, 37-20, as a 5-point underdog.  But that upset win has triggered a negative 29-79 ATS system, which fades Okie State.  Even worse for the Cowboys, the Wildcats under coach Bill Snyder have gone a jaw-dropping 85-46 ATS at home.  Take Kansas State.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Boston College, as Louisville falls into 55-6, 67-20, 144-62, 14-0 and 46-11 ATS Systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 46-11 ATS angle.  That system plays against certain home teams, not favored by 7+ points, off an upset win as a two touchdown road underdog.  Last week, Boston College went into Raleigh, and shocked the Wolfpack, 21-14, as 14-point underdogs.  But off that upset win, I look for BC to get annihilated by Lamar Jackson & Co. on Saturday.  The Eagles are a dismal 0-6 SU/ATS at home the past two seasons in ACC Conference games, while the Cardinals are a stellar 23-8 ATS when priced from -17 to -27 points. Lay the points with Louisville. ACC Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons over Army.  Last week, Air Force moved to 5-3 on the season with a 31-21 win at Fresno State.  But Army failed to cover the 16.5-point spot.  Meanwhile, the Black Knights pulled a huge upset last Saturday when they went into Winston-Salem, and stunned Wake Forest, 21-13, as a touchdown underdog.  Can Army make it two in a row?  If history is any indication, it's not likely.  Air Force has dominated this series over the past 27 years, with a 24-3 record and 19-8 ATS mark, including two double-digit wins in the games it was installed as an underdog.  It's true the Falcons are on a 4-game ATS losing skein, but teams that are on 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have covered 77% as underdogs in non-conference games since 1980 vs. foes off an upset win over a non-conference foe.  Likewise, winning teams off a pointspread defeat as a road favorite, and 4+ ATS losses in a row, are an awesome 67.6% ATS since 1980 on the road when not catching double-digits.  Take Air Force to smash Army.  Rivalry Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos minus the points over San Jose State.  Last week, Boise was favored by 14.5 points at Wyoming, and was upset by the Cowboys, 30-28.  That was Boise State's 1st loss of the season, but I love the Broncos to bounce back on Friday.  And that's because, since 1980, home teams favored by more than 15 points have cashed 62% following an upset loss on the road as an 8-point (or greater) favorite.  Additionally, Boise falls into 82-34 and 57-29 ATS Systems of mine based on its loss to Wyoming last week.  Take Boise State.  Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over the UCLA Bruins.  Colorado had last week off, and is in 1st place in the Pac-12 South division, with a 4-1 record (and a 6-2 overall record).  This is a big revenge game for the Buffaloes, as they've lost all five meetings with UCLA since joining the Pac-12 conference.  Colorado falls into a great "revenge" system of mine, which is 83-44 ATS since 1985, and it's a perfect 8-0 ATS this season.  Meanwhile, UCLA 2-8 ATS its last 10 games after getting upset, 52-45, by Utah in its last game.  And it's covered just 8 of 28 road games following a game in which they scored 40+ points.  Take Colorado.  NCAA Payback Payday!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats minus the points over the Buffalo Bulls.  Last week, the Bobcats shocked Toledo, 31-26, as a 15-point road underdog.  That was Ohio's 2nd straight win (and cover), and fifth win in its last six games.  I look for Ohio to blow out Buffalo on Thursday evening, as home favorites of -6.5 or more points are an awesome 66.2% ATS vs. conference foes over the past 37 years, if our home team is off a win in its previous game, as an underdog of more than 8 points.  And Ohio is also 7-0 ATS at home or on a neutral field off an upset win.  Take Ohio.  NCAA Football High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At Midnight, on Saturday night, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Hawaii.  Both of these teams come into this game with 4 wins, and each had a great win last week.  New Mexico blew out Louisiana Monroe, 59-17, as a 15.5-point favorite, while Hawaii upset Air Force on the road, 34-27, as a 16.5-point underdog.  The Warriors have returned home for this game, and one might expect Hawaii to have a big home field advantage due to the travel distance from the mainland.  But Hawaii's now 0-9 ATS its last 9 home games when it has played without rest.  Even worse:  the Rainbow Warriors fall into a negative 89-164 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off upset wins.  Take New Mexico + the points.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs minus the points over Texas El Paso.  Last week, the Monarchs were annihilated by Western Kentucky, 59-24.  That loss lowered ODU's record to 4-3 (2-1 in Conference USA).  In contrast, UTEP won last week, 52-49, as a double-digit underdog at Texas-San Antonio.  But the Miners are just 2-5 on the season, and have only won once in the four Conference games they've played.  I expect a "return to form" on this Saturday night, as UTEP falls into negative 69-155 and 74-158 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off big upset wins.  Additionally, winning teams (like ODU) off a blowout conference loss by more than 20 points, have covered 59.3% of the time over the past 37 seasons vs. conference foes off a SU/ATS win. Take Old Dominion.  C-USA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers come into Madison ranked #7 in the country, on the heels of a 7-0 record.  But they've been installed as a huge underdog vs. the Badgers, who are 5-2 this season.  But Wisconsin's schedule has been much tougher than Nebraska's, as Wisky has lost to Ohio State (in overtime) and Michigan (by just 7), while Nebraska's toughest opponent thus far has been a 2-5 Oregon squad (which it only defeated by 3 points, at home).  Indeed, last week, Nebraska barely got by an awful Purdue team, 27-14, as a 24-point favorite.  And that doesn't bode well for Nebraska, as unrested undefeated teams, with a 7-0 (or better) record, are a dismal 0-20-2 ATS the past 37 years off a conference win by less than 37 points, if they're installed as underdogs of 3+ points vs. conference foes with a worse win percentage.  Take Wisconsin.  NCAA Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles minus the points over Marshall.   Southern Miss had last week off following its 45-10 defeat at LSU on October 15.  But the Golden Eagles still have a winning record on the season, and winning teams, off a SU/ATS 21-point (or worse) defeat, are 310-231 (57.3%) ATS in Conference games since 1980 (at Game 8 forward).  Meanwhile, Marshall's an awful 37-60-1 ATS on the road since 2000.  Take Southern Miss.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over SMU.  Both of these teams are 3-4 on the season, but they couldn't have had much more different results than they experienced last week.  Tulane was crushed, 50-27, by Tulsa, while SMU blew out Houston, 38-16, as a 23-point underdog!  But SMU falls into a negative 13-43 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams in conference games off a conference win by 20+ points, if their foe is off a conference loss by 20+ points.   Also, Tulane is a perfect 7-0 ATS off back to back losses vs. foes off a win.  Take the Green Wave.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles minus the points over Miami-Ohio.  The Red Hawks have won the last eight games in this series, but that streak should be halted by the Eagles this afternoon.  EMU comes into this game off a 45-31 loss at Western Michigan, but has covered its last six games.  And College teams off a loss (but 5+ ATS wins) have covered 79% over the past 5 seasons.  Additionally, EMU falls into a 66-37 ATS revenge system of mine.  Lay the points with the Eagles.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Navy Midshipmen + the points over South Florida.  The Bulls were upset by Temple last week, 46-30, as a 5.5-point favorite.  Unfortunately for South Florida, that upset loss has triggered several negative systems of mine, with records of 61-125 and 128-200 ATS since 1980.  And, perhaps, the worst team (at least, from a betting standpoint) that a College Football team would want to host would be Navy.  And that's because Navy has historically been the best traveler in College Football against the spread.  Since 1991, Navy is an awesome 103-54-2 ATS away from home, including 39-14 ATS vs. an opponent off a loss (and a perfect 8-0 when priced from +2 to +8 points vs. a foe off a SU/ATS loss)!  Finally, both of these teams are strong at running the football.  And in conference games between teams that average 4.75+ yards per rush, road underdogs of more than 6 points have covered 195 of 338 since 1980, including 138 of 227 (61%) off a straight-up win.  Take Navy.  NCAA Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over California.  Last week, the Cal Golden Bears upset Oregon, 52-49, in overtime, while USC blew out Arizona, 48-14.  USC's now won 3 in a row, including a 21-17 win over a very good Colorado squad.  The Trojans are 4-3, but have really just played two bad games all season, both away from home (52-6 loss to #1 Alabama; 27-10 loss at Stanford).  At home, however, the Trojans are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, with their only ATS loss by a single point.  I look for a blowout tonight vs. California, which has not won a road game all season (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS), and has given up 47.66 ppg away from home.  USC falls into a 100-44 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites vs. foes off upset wins.  Take the Trojans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Ohio.  We played on the Rockets last week vs. Central Michigan and were rewarded with a 31-17 win, as a 10-point favorite.  Toledo's now 75-50 ATS as a favorite, including 50-28 ATS at home.  Even better:  the Rockets are now 7-0 ATS off a home win their last 7.  Toledo's lost just one game on the season, and falls into a 112-50 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on great teams off a big win.  Take the Rockets.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers + the points over Virginia Tech.  Pitt has a big scheduling edge for this Thursday contest, as Pitt hasn't played in 12 days, while the Hokies were at home vs. Miami last Saturday.  Pitt falls into a 52-13 ATS system of mine which involves teams playing with rest, off a SU win.  Additionally, the Panthers are a super 15-4 ATS at home off a double-digit conference win.  Take the Panthers.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack + the points over Wyoming.  The Cowboys come into this game off back to back upset wins -- over then-undefeated Air Force, as a 13-point underdog, and at Colorado State before that, as a 5.5-point underdog.  Now, the Cowboys are a road favorite.  And we'll go against them, as they fall into a negative 59-83 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off back to back upset wins.  Even worse:  that upset win over Air Force sets up Wyoming in another negative situation, as teams off upset wins as home dogs over teams with a 1.000 win percentage are awful as road favorites of -17 or less points.  Since 1980, these teams have cashed just 31.1% of the time.  Take Nevada + the points.  Mountain West Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Oregon State.  Currently, Washington is ranked #5 in the country, but it's in a very good position to make the College Football Playoffs, as #2 Ohio State and #3 Michigan will play each other next month in Columbus.  Thus, if the Huskies can remain undefeated, they will likely leapfrog the Big 10 team which loses that game.  This week, Washington will host Oregon State, and the Beavers' defense has given up more than 30 points per game this season.  That bodes well for Washington, which scored 70 points in its last game -- a 49-point blowout of Oregon.  For the season, Washington is averaging 49.5 ppg.  And, since 1980, high-scoring teams have covered 65.8% at home, at Game 3 forward, if they average at least 48.34 points per game on offense, and are playing an opponent with a defense that surrenders more than 25.5 ppg.  Moreover, Oregon State has covered just 10 of its last 33 away from home as underdogs of more than 18 points vs. an opponent off a win.  Take Washington to blow out the Beavers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Arkansas.  This is a brutal scheduling spot for Arkansas, which upset Mississippi as a 10-point underdog last Saturday, 34-30.  And that's because it has to travel to Auburn to play the Tigers, who had last week off following their 24-point blowout of Miss State in Starkville, two weeks ago.  Since 1980, rested home favorites, off a win, have covered 82.3% of the time against unrested foes off an upset win as a dog of more than 7 points.  Moreover, since 1983, Arkansas is an awful 16-31 ATS when playing away from home vs. a rested opponent, including 1-7 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +12.5 points.  Take Auburn.  SEC Conference Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  The Eagles upset Ohio last week, 27-20, as a 7-point underdog, and are now 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS this season.  Meanwhile, the Broncos are 7-0 this season, and are ranked #20 in the AP poll.  Even better (for our purposes), they're 6-1 ATS with their only pointspread defeat coming by a mere 3 points.  The Broncos have topped 40 points in each of their 3 Mid-American Conference games this season, and I expect another strong offensive showing on Saturday vs. the Eagles, who are giving up 28.3 ppg.  For technical support, consider that favored teams, off three straight wins in which they scored 35+ points, are 203-132 ATS against foes with a .600 (or better) ATS win percentage.  And the Broncos are 17-4 ATS off a straight-up win, while the Eagles are 16-33 ATS off a win.  Take Western Michigan.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Illinois.  The Wolverines were idle last week, but moved up to #3 in the AP poll, bypassing Clemson, which needed overtime to defeat North Carolina State last Saturday.  When we last saw Jim Harbaugh's men, they were dismantling Rutgers in New Jersey, 78-0.  And that was the 3rd largest margin of victory for Michigan in its 137-year history, and the worst loss by Rutgers since 1888.  Coincidentally, Illinois also comes into this game off a road win over Rutgers, as Illinois defeated the Scarlet Knights, 24-7, last week.  Unfortunately for the Illini, it has covered just five of its last 22 games off a pointspread win.  Even worse:  Michigan will be well-rested following its bye week.  And underdogs of more than 21 points -- like Illinois --  playing away from home, are an awful 41% ATS vs. rested foes.  Take Michigan minus the points.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles minus the points over Syracuse.  Boston College had last week off following its 56-10 blowout loss at the hands of #4-ranked Clemson.  But I love BC to bounce back on Saturday afternoon vs. Syracuse.  The primary reason is that the Orange pulled a massive upset last week when they upset Virginia Tech, 31-17, as a 22.5-point underdog.  That moved Syracuse to 3-4 on the season.  But off that upset win, I expect a big letdown on the road against Boston College, on Saturday.  Indeed, since 1987, teams off an upset win over a conference foe, as an underdog of more than 19 points, have covered just 18.9% of the time vs. foes off a pointspread loss, including 0-16 ATS if our 'play-against' team (here, Syracuse) has a win percentage between .290 and .560.  Take Boston College.  ACC Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Central Michigan.  Toledo (along with Western Michigan) are the only undefeated team in Mid-American Conference play this season.  And, with a date looming with the Broncos at season's end, the Rockets will have an opportunity to defeat the Broncos, and play in the MAC Conference Championship Game.  But, first things first, and the Rockets need to take care of business at home this weekend vs. Central Michigan.  Last week, the Chips upset Northern Illinois, 34-28.  But off that upset win, we'll fade the Chippewas, as they fall into negative 47-96 and 27-82 ATS systems of mine.  Even worse for Central Michigan:  Toledo's been dominant at home, and especially when priced between +5.5 and -27 points, as they're 46-24-2 ATS since 1999.  Finally, the Rockets are 5-0 ATS since 1999 at home when matched up against an opponent off an upset win, while Central Michigan is a horrid 0-7 ATS off an upset win since 1999 as a dog of +6 or more points.  Take Toledo.  NCAA HIGH NOON HANGING.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Texas.  The Wildcats are 3-3 on the season, but have won all 3 home games, while they're 0-3 on the road.  Likewise, Texas has won all 3 of its home games, but has lost all 3 of its games away from Austin, Texas.  This game will be played in Manhattan, Kansas, and the home team has won and covered the last four in this series.  Kansas State lost by 21 points last week to Oklahoma, while Texas won by 21 vs. Iowa State.  That bodes well for the Wildcats, as teams favored by 7 or less points (or PK) off a conference loss by 20+ points have cashed 80.9% vs. conference foes off a conference win by 20+ points since 1987.   Additionally, the Wildcats are an awesome 25-6 ATS off a conference loss by 20+ points since 1988, including a perfect 12-0 ATS if the pointspread is 7 points or less.  Take Kansas State.  NCAA Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the California Golden Bears minus the points over Oregon.  The Ducks, under new defensive coordinator Brady Hoke, have been awful on defense this season.  Oregon's allowing opponents to score 41.8 ppg, and it has failed to win or cover any of its last four games.  Even worse for the Ducks:  California's offense is averaging 42.3 ppg.  That doesn't bode well for Oregon, as road teams that give up 38+ points (at Game 3 forward) have covered just 36 of 104 games since 1980 against opponents that score 38+ points a game.   Additionally, California has lost 7 in a row to Oregon in this series, but falls into a super 38-13 ATS revenge system of mine.  Lay the points with California.  NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Arizona State.  We played on the Buffaloes two weeks ago, as a 20-point favorite against Oregon State, and were rewarded with a 47-6 blowout win.  I had several reasons for playing on Colorado in that game, including the fact they were 4-0 ATS (they're now 6-0 ATS), as well as the fact that they played #4-ranked Michigan extremely tough in defeat.  Indeed, but for the 3rd quarter injury to QB Sefo Liufau, the Buffs very well could have won that game.  Colorado did lose a close game last week at USC (but covered the 5-point spread), and should rebound at home vs. an Arizona State team giving up 33 ppg.  It's true that the Sun Devils have won all 7 meetings since 2006, but their long win streak in the series has set them up in several negative situations, with records of 29-60, 19-50, 13-36 and 43-82 ATS.  Finally, the Buffaloes are 18-0 straight-up and 14-4 ATS since 1995 when playing with revenge vs. a conference foe, if the Buffs are not getting 3+ points.  Take Colorado.  NCAA Game of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas State Red Wolves minus the points over South Alabama.  In its last game, South Alabama pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season-to-date, with a 42-24 win, as a 19-point underdog, over then-Top 25-ranked San Diego State.  But off that monumental upset victory, we'll fade the Jaguars on the road, on Saturday, as they fall into a negative 35-108 ATS system of mine.  Additionally, teams off wins by 14+ points, as 14-point (or greater) underdogs, have covered just 32.1% over the past 11 seasons.  Finally, the Jags are a poor 0-6 ATS off an ATS win in their previous game, while the Red Wolves are 11-0 ATS since 2005 when priced from -3.5 to -10.5 points vs. a foe off a straight-up win.  Take Arkansas State.  Below the Radar Rout!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals minus the points over New Mexico State.  We've gone against the Aggies a couple of times this season, with the last being their road game at Troy State, back on Sept. 24.  That game was a blowout from the get-go, as Troy State walloped New Mexico State, 52-6.  The Aggies did bounce back to win their next game, 37-31, as a 5.5-point home underdog vs. Louisiana Lafayette.  Unfortunately, that upset win has triggered several of my best systems that all go against the Aggies as a road underdog on Saturday.  Those angles have records of 103-38, 23-5 and 99-55 ATS.  Last year, the Aggies survived to defeat the Vandals, 55-48, at home.  But New Mexico State's an awful 0-8 ATS off a home game, if they're matched up against a revenge-minded foe, and the Aggies are not getting 7+ points.  The revenger is also 9-3 ATS in this series since 2002.  Take Idaho.  Conference Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Nebraska.  Nebraska comes into this game with a perfect 5-0 record following its 31-16 home win vs. Illinois.  We played against Nebraska in that game, and got the $$$ with the Illini, who were catching 20.5 points in that game.  One reason is that I'm of the mindset that the 'Huskers are overrated by being ranked among the nation's Top 10.  Indeed, its best win this season was at home, 35-32, vs. Oregon, as a 3-point favorite.  At the time, it was impressive (even if Nebraska only "pushed" against the spread), but Oregon has since lost all 3 of its games (both SU and ATS), and failed to cover those games by 16, 21, and 39 points!  Nebraska did have last week off, but a week of rest has actually not served undefeated teams (with records of 5-0 or better) well, as they've cashed just 23% on the road in the regular season when not getting 3+ points.  Nebraska's also a poor 8-25-1 ATS away from home off a double-digit conference home win.  Take the points with the Hoosiers.  Underdog Shocker!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Florida State.  The Seminoles bounced back from their last-second loss to North Carolina with an upset win at Miami.  But off that upset win, I expect a letdown vs. a good Wake Forest team.  The Demon Deacons are 5-1 this season (their best start since 2006), yet are catching more than 20 points in this game.  And .714 (or better) teams are 18-1 ATS as double-digit dogs since 1995 against conference foes off an upset win over another conference foe (with the only ATS loss by a mere half-point).  Florida State was already significantly banged-up going into last week's game, but suffered more casualties vs. the Hurricanes, with QB Deondre Francois (shoulder) and star DB Nate Andrews (pectoral) among the wounded.  Francois is listed as probable, but Andrews was lost for the season.  Admittedly, the Deacs also suffered a key injury last week (QB Kendall Hinton), but the drop-off between Hinton and back-up John Wolford is not significant.  And, outside of that injury, the Deacs are relatively healthy.  Wake's defense against the run has been strong this season (3.4 ypr against foes that average 4.0 ypr), and it will make things difficult for FSU's Dalvin Cook.  Take Wake Forest.  NCAA High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over the Purdue Boilermakers.  The Boilers upset Illinois as a 9-point underdog last week, 34-31.  But they were blown out by Maryland, 50-7, in their only other Big 10 tilt this season.  And, notwithstanding Purdue's big win last week, it's hard to find much to love about the Boilers' defense.  After all, it allowed Maryland to run for 400 yards on 46 carries (8.69 ypr).  And then it allowed Illinois to run for 315 yards on 46 carries (6.84 ypr).  To put these numbers in perspective, Maryland has rushed for 5.41 ypr in its other games this season, while Illinois has rushed for 5.21 ypr in its other games.  Thus, Purdue allowed its two Big 10 foes to get 3.28 and 1.63 ypr more than they have otherwise gained this season.  Iowa prefers to run the football, and I expect its backs to have a field day against Purdue's soft run defense.  Purdue's an awful 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS its last 16 as home underdogs!  And it also falls into negative 69-154, 89-162, 6-54 and 62-142 ATS systems of mine.  Take Iowa.  High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on North Carolina State minus the points over Notre Dame, as North Carolina State falls into a super 96-44 ATS system of mine.  That system is based, in large part, on the Fighting Irish's sieve-like defense.  This is Greg Hudson's first year as Notre Dame defensive coordinator (following a 3-year stint at Purdue).  To say that the season has not gone as planned would be a massive understatement.  Indeed, if you toss out Notre Dame's game against Nevada (the weakest foe among the Irish's five opponents), then Notre Dame has given up an average of 39.25 points per game!  And, for the season, the Irish defense is giving up more than 12 ppg than NC State's defense.  That doesn't bode well for the Irish on Saturday, given that the Wolfpack has covered 80% as home favorites the past 37 years vs. foes with defensive averages greater than 31.5 ppg, and 69% vs. foes with defenses that gave up more than 12 ppg than NC State's defense.  Take the Wolfpack minus the points.  NCAA Football High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Clemson.  Last week, Clemson won the biggest game of the college season-to-date, when it upset Louisville 42-36, at home, in a match-up of Top 5 teams.  Off that win, I look for a letdown on the road on this Friday.  Boston College falls into 120-64, 98-39 and 154-84 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine following its back-to-back 30-point wins.  Additionally, unbeaten teams, like Clemson, with a 4-0 (or better) record, are an awful 35.4% ATS since 1980 as road favorites of -3 (or more) points, if they're off an upset win.  Finally, double-digit favorites are a poor 27.9% ATS off an upset conference win, if they're matched up against a .600 (or better) conference foe since 1980.  Take Boston College.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over Colorado State.  Last week, Wyoming was upset, 27-24, as a 6-point favorite by Eastern Michigan.  That was the Cowboys' 3rd straight ATS defeat.  Meanwhile, Colorado State covered its 3rd straight in a 7-point loss at Minnesota (as a 17-point underdog).  I look for Wyoming to bounce back off its upset loss, as it falls into several of my best "bounce-back" systems, with records of 83-31, 88-27 and 121-42 ATS.  Additionally, teams off 3 straight ATS losses have covered 70.4 % vs. Conference foes off a loss, if that foe is also off 3 straight ATS wins.  Moreover, Wyoming has cashed 62% as a road underdog off an upset loss since 1980, and has also cashed 76.1% the last 22 years on the road when playing with revenge against a foe off a loss.  Finally, Colorado State has been horrid as a favorite vs. revengers that don't have either a winning record or a winning ATS record, as it's covered just 18 of 51.  Take Wyoming + the points.  NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders minus the points over North Texas.  Last week, the Mean Green upset Rice, 42-35, as a 7-point underdog.  But off that upset win, I look for a big letdown here, at home, as a double-digit underdog.  Indeed, North Texas falls into negative 6-54 and 61-142 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins.  Moreover, the Mean Green have been horrid off upset wins.  Since 2005, they're 0-17 straight-up, and 4-13 ATS following an outright win as an underdog (and 1-10 ATS in conference games)!  Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has been at its best as a road favorite, as it's 21-4 SU and 17-7-1 ATS the past 12 seasons.  And it's also cashed 7 straight as a favorite of -11+ points vs. foes off a win.  Take the Blue Raiders minus the points.  Conference USA Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Wisconsin.  The Wolverines have been installed as a big favorite over Wisconsin, and it may look tempting to grab the points with the undefeated Badgers.  After all, they've already won outright as underdogs vs. LSU and Michigan State.  Unfortunately for Wisky, unbeaten teams, with a 4-0 (or better) record have been awful away from home when getting 8+ points.  Since 1980, they've covered just 39% of the time (and just 23% if they're playing away from home in back to back games).  Even worse:  Michigan is averaging 52 ppg on offense (more than 21 ppg better than Wisconsin), and home favorites that average 50+ points have covered 59.2% since 1980, including 64% if they average more than 21 ppg than their opponent.  Finally, Jim Harbaugh's teams have gone 26-10 ATS when favored by more than 3 points.  Lay the points with Jim Harbaugh's men.  NCAA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Nebraska, as Illinois falls into 64-25 and 57-26 ATS systems of mine.  Nebraska comes into this game ranked among the Top 15.  The 'Huskers have a 4-0 record, and are also 3-0-1 ATS after defeating Northwestern last week, 24-13, as an 8-point favorite.  Meanwhile, the Illini were blown out, 34-10, at home by Western Michigan, as a 3-point underdog in their previous game.  But I look for Illinois to bounce back on Saturday.  One of the things I like to do is play on double-digit conference road underdogs following a 20-point SU and 20-point ATS blowout loss, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS win, which also has a winning ATS record on the season.  Dating back to 1980, our underdogs in this situation have cashed 65% of the time.  Additionally, the Illini had last week off, and they've been super when playing with rest.  Since 1980, they've cashed 78% as road underdogs in Big 10 games following a week off.  Finally, Nebraska is a wallet-busting 5-19-2 ATS since 1980 when playing a rested opponent, if Nebraska, itself, is unrested.  Take Illinois.  NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Oregon State.  Colorado is off to a terrific 3-1 start this season.  And its only loss was 45-28, at #4-ranked Michigan two weeks ago.  But the Buffs covered the spread in that game (they're 4-0 ATS this year), and actually led the Wolverines, 21-7, after the first quarter, and 28-24 early in the 3rd quarter.  Unfortunately, Colorado's QB, Sefo Liufau, sustained an injury after throwing his 3rd TD pass to give the Buffaloes that 28-24 lead, and was replaced by freshman QB Steven Montez two series later.  The Buffs never scored again in that Michigan game, but Montez threw for 333 yards and three TDs last week at Oregon (and ran for 135 yards and a 4th TD), in Colorado's 41-38 upset of the Ducks (as a 13.5-point underdog).  It's unclear who will start this week under center for Colorado, as Liufau is not fully healthy.  But Montez was named Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week, so, regardless which QB is on the field, we're going to back the Buffaloes.  For technical support, consider that double-digit home favorites with a winning SU/ATS record, that won outright as double-digit road underdogs in their previous game, have covered 78.1% since 1985 vs. conference foes!  Finally, Oregon State has covered just 3 of its last 14 games off a pointspread win.  And it's also 3-13 ATS its last 16 conference games.  Take the Buffaloes minus the points. NCAA Roadkill. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Vanderbilt, as Florida falls into 157-73 and 166-80 ATS systems of mine.  Last week, Vanderbilt went into Western Kentucky, and upset the Hilltoppers, 31-30, as 9.5-point underdogs.  That upset win, though, sets up the Commodores in several negative systems of mine, including one with a negative 68-154 ATS record since 1980.  And this spot against the Gators will be especially difficult, as I expect Florida to be in an ornery mood after blowing a 21-3 halftime lead in Knoxville last week.  Florida has been solid over the years on the road in SEC Conference games.  Dating back to 1982, it has covered over 60% of the time (67-44-1 ATS).  And Vandy has been awful at home vs. foes off a loss, as the Commodores have covered just 32 of 81 games.  Finally, over the last 36 seasons, SEC Conference teams have covered just 28% of the time as home underdogs following an upset win over a non-conference foe.  With Vandy on a 12-game losing streak at home to the Gators (4-8 ATS), we'll fade the Commodores and take Florida minus the points.  High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Stanford, as Washington falls into 183-113 and 87-29 ATS systems of mine.  Last week, Stanford came back in the game's final minutes to defeat UCLA, 22-13, while Washington downed Arizona, 35-28.  That was Stanford's 15th win in its last 16 games (and 7th straight Pac-12 road win).  But I think the Cardinal's streak ends here, in Seattle.  Statistically, the biggest difference between these two teams is on offense.  The Huskies are averaging a whopping 45.75 ppg, while Stanford's offense has only generated 25.0 ppg.  And faithful followers know I love playing on College teams that can score.  Washington also plays this game with revenge from a 31-14 loss at Stanford last season.  And revenge-minded home teams have cashed 75% of the time since 1981 if they average more than 20.5 ppg on offense than does their opponent, and their opponent is off a SU/ATS win.  Look for Chris Petersen's men to hand Stanford its first loss of the season.  Take the Huskies!  NCAA High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over the California Golden Bears, as Arizona State falls into 102-38, 107-35, and 82-25 ATS systems of mine.  Last week, California upset the Texas Longhorns, 50-43, as a 7.5-point home underdog.  But off that upset win, I expect a major letdown, on the road on Saturday night, in Temple.  Indeed, the Bears have covered just 16 of 42 off upset wins, including an awful 3 of 19 when playing a competitively-priced game with a pointspread less than 7 points (and 1-9 ATS on the road).  That doesn't bode well for California on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that the Bears have given up 39.67 ppg this season.  California gave up 31 to a horrible Hawaii team in its opener (a 51-31 win, but 1.5-point ATS loss), and then gave up 45 points in a 5-point loss (but 1/2 point cover) to San Diego State in its second game.  For technical support, consider that teams off upset wins, that surrender 38.5+ points per game, are a horrid 25.6% ATS over the past 36 seasons vs. conference foes off straight-up wins (including 0-13 ATS if our play-against team (here, California) gave up more than 14 points in its upset win, and also covered the spread 2 games back)!  Since 1984, Arizona State is 11-0 ATS as home favorites vs. conference foes that pulled an upset the previous week!  Take the Sun Devils.  Pac-12 Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over the Stanford Cardinal.  UCLA comes into this game 2-1 straight-up, but 0-3 ATS, while Stanford is perfect SU and ATS this season.  The knee jerk reaction might be to play against UCLA here, but consider the following:  Since 1981, at Game 4 forward, .500 (or better) teams have cashed 72.4 percent of the time if they were winless ATS, not favored by 7+ points, and their opponent was 100% perfect ATS!  Even better:  UCLA has dominated as home underdogs (or PK), and when matched up against foes not off a loss, the Bruins have gone 29-11-1 ATS since 1981.  Look for the Bruins to upset the Cardinal on Saturday night. Pac-12 Dog of Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over South Carolina.  Last week, the Gamecocks moved to 2-1 SU/ATS this season with a 20-15 win over East Carolina, while the Wildcats defeated the New Mexico State Aggies, 62-42, to notch their first win of the season.  I look for Kentucky to make it two straight on this Saturday evening, as they fall into 123-54 and 338-236 ATS systems of mine based on their blowout win.  Additionally, single-digit home favorites off a win the previous week, in which they scored 60+ points, have cashed a staggering 74% of the time since 1980 vs. unrested conference foes.  Finally, Kentucky is a terrific 79% ATS since 1980 as a home favorite off a SU win, if its foe has a winning pointspread record.  Take the Wildcats.  NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.