At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets won here in Game 3, but are a miserable 43-69 ATS on the road off a point spread win, including 1-10 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins vs. an opponent off back to back SU/ATS losses.  That doesn't bode well for Denver this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that #3-seeded teams are a poor 32-56 ATS off an upset playoff win, if they don't trail in the series.  Take Portland minus the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Portland/Denver game.  The Nuggets have won the past two games by scores of 128-109 and 120-115.  But off those two high-scoring wins, we'll look for a lower-scoring affair this afternoon, as teams have gone 'under' the total 65.0% since 1991 if they scored more than 116 in back to back playoff games.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Miami is just one loss away from its summer vacation, so this is a 'must win' game for Erik Spoelstra's men.  I believe it will rise to the occasion, as Miami is 53-25 ATS off back to back losses, when matched up against an opponent off a straight up win.  Additionally, in the first 3 rounds of the NBA playoffs, home underdogs of less than 6 points have cashed 64.9% since 1991 off a SU/ATS home playoff loss.  Take Miami.

At 9:35 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  We played on Los Angeles in Game 2, and were (obviously) disappointed with the result, as the Mavericks upset L.A. for the 2nd straight game, 127-121, as a 7-point underdog.  But that upset win has triggered a powerful 144-67 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off upsets that are not favored by 2+ points in their current game.  Even worse for the Mavericks:  they're 2-13 ATS their last 15, and 33-66-1 ATS their last 100, off back to back underdog ATS wins when they're not getting 6+ points in their current game.  And the Clippers are 22-8 ATS on the road off a loss.  Finally, NBA favorites off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, and down exactly two games in a Playoff series (i.e., 0-2 or 1-3), are 60-39-3 ATS since 1991.  Lay the points with the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Denver Nuggets/Portland Trail Blazers game.  These two teams come into tonight's game off back to back high-scoring affairs.  Portland won Game 1, 123-109, while Denver took Game 2, 128-109.  We'll look for a lower-scoring game tonight, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' the total 60% of the time since 1991 after back to back games that totaled 230+ points.  Additionally, the 'under' falls into several of my favorite Totals systems that are 92-58, 177-131, and 136-101 since 1991.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks made a statement in Games 1 + 2, as they were able to win a nail-biter (109-107) as well as a blowout (132-98).  Certainly, the Bucks are out to avenge last year's playoff ouster at the hands of the Heat.  But before we dismiss the Heat entirely, we must note that the first two games were at Fiserv Forum, where the Bucks have gone 28-10 this season.  It's been a completely different story outside of Wisconsin, as Milwaukee is a pedestrian 20-16 on the road this year (and a wallet-breaking 14-22 ATS).  We'll take Miami to bounce back in Game 3, as the Heat are an awesome 53-24-3 ATS off back to back losses, when playing an opponent off a SU win.  Even better:  NBA underdogs of less than 6 points, off defeats by more than 32 points, have cashed 88% in the Playoffs since 1991.  Take Miami.  Good luck, a always...Al McMordie. 

At 10:05 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies struck first in this series with a 112-109 upset win at Salt Lake City, on Sunday night.  And that followed an upset post-season win at Golden State in the play-in round.  But we'll take Utah to rebound in Game 2 of this series.  Indeed, the Jazz are at their best as a favorite when coming off a home loss, and playing with revenge, as they're 33-14 ATS.  Even better:  #8-seeded underdogs are a nasty 3-18-1 ATS off a playoff win (and back to back wins, overall).  And underdogs off back to back upset post-season wins are a wallet-breaking 17-34-2 ATS.  Take the Jazz minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  The Clippers lost Game 1 here, at home, on Saturday, 113-103, as a 6-point favorite.  But we'll take Kawhi Leonard & Co. to bounce back on Tuesday in Game #2.  Indeed, since 2020, the Clippers have been one of the best teams in the league off a loss, as they're 53-17 SU and 46-24 ATS, including 12-1 ATS off a double-digit loss when not laying more than 7 points.  Even better:  Dallas is a dreadful 0-11 ATS in the Playoffs following a SU/ATS win as an underdog (or PK) when getting more than five points from a team which owns a better W/L percentage.  Finally, the Clippers fall into 158-90, 85-35, 83-35, 94-39 and 75-21 ATS Playoff systems of mine.  Lay the points with the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Portland Trail Blazers.  The Trail Blazers have not had much playoff success over the years, as they're 68-103 ATS their last 171 including 32-53 ATS on the road.  But Portland went into Denver in Game 1 of this series, and pulled the upset, 123-109, as a 1-point dog.  We'll fade the Blazers in Game 2, as .700 (or worse) road teams up 1-0 in a playoff series are 0-9-2 ATS if matched up against a division rival, and not getting 7+ points.  Additionally, the Nuggets are 5-0-1 ATS their last six, and 36-11-1 ATS their last 48 at home, off a home loss by more than 10 points, provided the Nuggets weren't getting more than 2 points in their current game.  Take the Nuggets to level this series at 1-game apiece.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Denver.  If the Trail Blazers win this game, they will avoid the dreaded play-in round, and be seeded #6 in the Western conference.  Denver also would like to win, but their benefit of securing the #3 seed rather than the #4 seed isn't as great as Portland's.  It's true that Denver won its 3rd straight game (and 2nd straight by double-digits) when it defeated Detroit, 114-103, on Friday.  But the Nuggets are a poor 3-14 ATS off back to back double-digit wins.  Meanwhile, Portland falls into a 28-6 ATS division revenge angle of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded home favorites of -6 (or more) points in the regular season.   Lay the points with the Trail Blazers.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder have lost 23 of their last 24 games, and are clearly pointing ahead toward the draft lottery.  They've lost their last five games by 21, 39, 28, 16 and 16 points.  Los Angeles still has an incentive to win this game for playoff positioning, and will also look to remove the stench from a 122-115 loss at Houston on Friday.  The Clippers are 22-7 ATS their last 29 on the road off a loss.  Take the Clippers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Cleveland.  The Cavs have not been competitive down the stretch, as they've lost 12 of 13 games, including a 15-point defeat at the hands of Washington, on Friday.  Interestingly, the Nets have dropped both meetings this season to the woeful Cavaliers.  And they lost each by 12 points!  With that as a backdrop, we'll take Brooklyn to close out their season with a big win this evening.  Brooklyn falls into a 166-98 ATS revenge angle of mine, while Cleveland is a nasty 13-31 ATS off a point spread defeat this season, and 27-48 ATS off a loss by 15+ points.  Take the Nets.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Houston.  The Rockets are 17-54 this season after upsetting the Clippers to snap a 7-game slide.  But faithful followers know I love playing against bad teams off wins.  And this is a great spot to do so, given it's Houston's final road game of the season.  The Rockets fall into a 13-57 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams in late season games, while Atlanta applies to a 120-55 ATS 'momentum' system, based on its 116-93 victory over Orlando on Thursday.  Lay the points with the Hawks.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies won their fifth straight game on Friday, with a 1-point triumph over Sacramento.  They'll now travel to San Francisco to play a critical game (for both teams) vs. Golden State.  Because of the importance of this afternoon's game, Warriors' coach Steve Kerr rested his stars on Friday because this Sunday game would be for "all the marbles" anyway.  But the Warriors won that Friday game, 125-122.  That was the Warriors' fifth straight win and cover, and I look for them to stretch their streak to six straight this afternoon.  The Warriors fall into an 84-45 "Last Home Game" system of mine, while Memphis applies to a negative 48-76 ATS "Last Road Game" system which goes against certain teams in their final road game that are headed to the playoffs.  And Memphis is also a wallet-breaking 24-42 ATS off 5+ wins.  Take the Warriors minus the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Charlotte.  This season finale is important to each of these two teams because of playoff positioning.  But we'll take the homestanding Wizards, who play this game with revenge from a double-digit home loss to the Hornets on March 30.  The Wizards are 51-33 ATS when playing with revenge, including 17-9 ATS this season.  Moreover, Washington won its previous game, 120-105, on Friday vs. Cleveland.  And the Wizards are 11-1 ATS this season off a double-digit win.  Lay the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Boston.  Last night, the Knicks defeated Charlotte, 118-109, in overtime, and they'll now take on the Boston Celtics, who are locked into the #7 seed after winning yesterday vs. the Timberwolves.  That win by the Celtics snapped their four-game losing streak, which was important for Brad Stevens' team.  But off that win, I expect a less intense effort by the Celtics this afternoon, given there's really nothing to play for.  New York lost by two points in the previous meeting vs. Boston, but is 15-6 ATS when playing with revenge this season.  And the Knicks also fall into 74-37 and 64-34 ATS "Last Home Game" systems of mine.  Take New York minus the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Chicago.  The Bulls were officially eliminated from the Playoffs last night when the Washington Wizards bested the Cleveland Cavaliers, 120-105.  Chicago will now travel to play the Nets, who are still locked in a battle with Milwaukee for playoff seeding.  These two teams met earlier this week in the Windy City, and the Nets won that game, 115-107.  That was, ironically, the same score of the teams' first meeting this season -- but that game was won by Chicago.  We'll take the homestanding Nets, as they fall into a 27-3, 90% ATS late season system of mine, which is based on their current win streak.  Even better:  coach Steve Nash has stated that his All-Star triumvirate of Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving will all play in this game.  And it will be the first time this troika has played together vs. the Bulls, and just the 8th time all season they all suited up for a game.  Take Brooklyn to blow out Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat over the Philadelphia 76ers.  These two teams played back-to-back games in January, and the Sixers won both meetings.  But both were in Philadelphia.  And each game was played when the Heat was playing awful basketball.  The defending Eastern conference champs got off to a 7-14 start (6-13-1 ATS), but they've been playing very good basketball since.  Indeed, over its last 48 games, Miami is 31-17 SU and 26-21-1 ATS).  This will be Miami's final home game of the season, while it will also be the 76ers' final road game.  And that set of events has triggered a very good 99-59-4 ATS "last home game" system of mine, which has gone 26-7-2 ATS since 2013, as well as a second "last home game" system which has cashed 84 of 129 since 1991.  Although both of these teams would certainly like to win tonight's game for playoff positioning, it's less important to the 76ers, as they only need to win one of their final three games to secure the conference's #1 seed.  And Philly has two very winnable home games vs. the Magic on deck.  The Heat, on the other hand, are locked in a three-way battle for home court advantage with the Hawks and Knicks.  And Miami has a difficult finishing schedule with road games at Milwaukee and Detroit on the weekend.  I look for Miami to get the win tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Utah.  After dropping seven of eight games in April, the Blazers have caught fire.  Since April 27, they've won eight of nine, including 5-1 SU/ATS on the road.  Tonight, they'll be in Salt Lake City to take on the league's #1 team, Utah.  Portland has yet to defeat Utah this season, but the Jazz are currently playing short-handed, as Donavan Mitchell and Mike Conley remain sidelined.  Portland blew out the Spurs (124-102) and Rockets (140-129) at home in their last two games -- both at home.  And that bodes well for Portland tonight, as it's 27-10 ATS on the road off back to back home wins, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS when priced from +3 to +5.5 points.  Finally, the Jazz are a wallet-breaking 5-24-1 ATS vs. double-revenging foes, if the Jazz were not favored by 7+ points.  Take the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  Memphis comes into this game off back-to-back wins over Toronto and New Orleans, and now sits just a half-game behind Golden State for the all-important #8 seed in the Play-In Round.  Likewise, Dallas is playing well, with four straight wins.  And the Mavericks also triumphed over Memphis in the first two meetings this season.  But we'll take the revenge-minded Grizzlies as a home underdog tonight, as they're 21-12 ATS as an underdog this season.  Even better:  Memphis is 21-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a win, provided Memphis was not favored by more than 2 points.  Take the Grizzlies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over New Orleans.  The NBA's Western conference has a great race between the Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors coming down the stretch.  Both teams have lost 33 games and, as it now stands, would meet each other in the 'play-in' round should the season end today.  But there will be a significant advantage conferred to the team which finishes with the better record, as it will only have to win one of two 'play-in' games, while the team with the lesser record will have to win two 'play-in' games to advance into the conference quarterfinals.  So, these final games are ultra-important for Memphis.  We'll lay the points tonight, as the Grizzlies play with revenge from a 31-point blowout loss to New Orleans earlier in the season.  And NBA teams with a better record than their opponent, have gone 71-48-2 ATS if they were playing with revenge from a 25-point (or worse) defeat, and their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  With the Pelicans in off an upset win over Charlotte on Sunday, we'll fade Stan Van Gundy's men tonight.  Take Memphis.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Denver.  We played against Denver last night, and got the $$$ with the Utah Jazz, who won, 127-120, as a 4.5-point home favorite.  "Out of the frying pan, and into the fire" would certainly apply to Denver's situation tonight, as it has to go from playing the league's #1 team to a game against a rested Nets squad.  And, to make matters worse, the Nets have lost their last four games SU/ATS, so they'll be in an ornery mood tonight.  Denver is a poor 52-96-1 ATS at home when playing without rest.  And it's 0-8 ATS its last eight (and 8-29 ATS its last 37) against the Nets, if it wasn't favored by 5+ points.  Take Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points with New York.  Last week, we took the Suns at the Knicks, and were rewarded with an 8-point win, 118-110.  And we'll come right back with Phoenix in this rematch.  The Suns were upset by Atlanta, 135-103, on Wednesday.  But they're 45-14 ATS their last 59 off an upset road loss.  Take Phoenix.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Sacramento.  San Antonio dropped its fifth straight game on Wednesday, 126-94, at Utah, while the Kings won for the fourth straight time, 104-93, at Indiana.  The Spurs are in the 10th spot right now, and need to stay ahead of Sacramento and New Orleans to qualify for the play-in round.  Coming into tonight, the Spurs are 1.5 games in front of the Pelicans, and 2.5 games clear of Sacramento.  This game is the only match-up left on the schedule which pits two of the three teams, so this game will be critical in determining which of the three teams earns a post-season berth.  We'll take the Spurs minus the points, as the Silver and Black have gone 42-12 ATS as a favorite off a loss by 18+ points, if their opponent was off a point spread win in its previous game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets blew out New York, 113-97, on Wednesday, for their 18th win over their last 22 games.  But off that 16-point blowout, we will fade the Nuggets tonight, as they're 16-38 ATS on the road off a win by more than 8 points.  Lay the points with the Jazz.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Dallas.  The Cavaliers come into this game on an 8-game SU/ATS losing streak, and will play the Mavericks twice this weekend (today, and Sunday).  We'll grab the points with Cleveland in this game, as rested road underdogs off a SU/ATS loss, and 7 ATS losses in a row, are a solid 88-54-3 ATS, including 29-10 ATS vs. foes playing their third game in four nights.  And that's the situation here, as the Mavericks played last night vs. Brooklyn, as well as on Tuesday, at Miami.  Take Cleveland + the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  Atlanta comes into tonight's game off a 3-game SU/ATS sweep of its home stand, including a blowout win last night over Phoenix.  Meanwhile, the Pacers check in off back to back SU/ATS wins.  We'll take Indiana tonight, and go against the Hawks, as unrested NBA road teams off 3 SU/ATS home wins are a poor 31% ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take the Pacers as a home underdog on Thursday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Dallas.  The Nets were drilled, 115-98, earlier this season by Dallas, so they will seek revenge in this rematch in Texas.  And they're 45-22 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, so that bodes well for the Nets tonight.  It's true that Brooklyn comes into this game off 3 straight losses.  But .650 (or better) road favorites have covered 57% over the last 31 years as road favorites of 3+ losses.  Take Brooklyn.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over Charlotte.  The Bulls are favored on the road tonight, even though they have a worse record than Charlotte, and have dropped each of their last four games, SU/ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the home underdog Hornets.  But consider that NBA road favorites (or PK), that are off back to back SU/ATS losses, have covered the spread 67% since 1990 against .400 (or better) foes that have a better W/L record.  More good news for Chicago:  leading scorer Zach Levine (27.5 ppg) should return to action tonight.  Lay the points with Chicago.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Sacramento.  The Pacers were defeated, 154-141 by the Wizards on Monday, while Sacramento won last night, 103-99, in Oklahoma City.  That was Sacramento's 3rd straight win, and 8th cover (against just two ATS losses) in its last 10 games.  When these two teams met in Sacramento earlier this season, the Kings upset the Pacers, 127-122.  But I love Indiana to turn the tables tonight, as it's 22-11 its last 33 as a revenge-minded favorite.  And it's 49-24 ATS off a loss by 13+ points, if it's now matched up against a .400 (or better) foe.  Take the Pacers minus the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans over the Golden State Warriors.  Last night's loss to the Warriors may have been New Orleans' death knell, as it now trails the 8th-seeded Warriors by four games, and the 10th-seeded San Antonio Spurs by 2.5 games, with just seven to play.  Tonight, the Pelicans will get another crack at Golden State in the 2nd of this 2-game series.  And New Orleans knows it must win this home game, as it faces an extremely difficult schedule down the stretch.  After tonight, the Pels will hit the road for 5 straight games -- all against teams currently qualifying for the Playoffs.  And then New Orleans will come back home to face the Lakers to end the regular season.  We'll take New Orleans tonight as a small favorite, as they fall into a 64% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in the 2nd of a back to back set against the same opponent.  Additionally, the Warriors are 30-50 ATS their last 80 games off a SU win.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the New York Knicks.  The Knicks won (and covered) again on Sunday, as they blew out the Houston Rockets, 122-97.  That was New York's 14th ATS win in its last 15 games played.  Tonight, New York will be saddled with playing without rest, while Memphis will be rested following its shocking loss on Saturday at Orlando.  Memphis was up by nine points entering the 4th quarter, but fell, 112-111, to the Magic.  But off that loss, Memphis falls into an 83% ATS (since 1991) system of mine which has won 14 in a row.  Even better:  the Grizzlies lost in overtime, 133-129, earlier this year at New York (also blowing a 15-point lead in that game), but are 36-21 ATS, 63%, when playing with revenge from an upset defeat.  Meanwhile, the Knicks are 4-14 ATS, 22%, on the road vs. a foe it upset in the previous meeting.  And, finally, revenge-minded teams that gave up 125+ points in an upset loss are 102-68 ATS, 60%, when playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  With Memphis in off a game where they blew a big lead, and playing with revenge against an opponent that also mounted a big comeback win, I fully expect the Grizzlies to be ultra-focused tonight.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over the Portland Trail Blazers.  Damian Lillard & Co. went into Beantown yesterday, and upended the Celtics at TD Garden, 129-119. That was Portland's 4th straight win (and cover), which sets up our play tonight.  The Hawks have been dominant over the years here, in Atlanta, vs. opponents off 4+ wins, as they're 72-46 ATS, including 28-8 ATS vs. unrested foes.  And they're also 41-27 ATS at home when rested, and not laying 7+ points vs. unrested Western conference foes.  Finally, the Blazers are a wallet-busting 13-30 ATS vs. revenge-minded, winning Eastern conference foes when Portland isn't getting 3+ points.  Take the Hawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over New York.  The Knicks come into this game off a 17-point blowout win over Chicago at Madison Square Garden - their 13th ATS win in 14 games.  But this will be a difficult task for New York as it's favored by a huge amount on the road.  And it's the biggest number New York has been favored by on the road since March 21, 2014, which is troubling considering the fact that it's 6-18 ATS its last 24 as a road favorite of more than 6 points.  We played against Houston last night, and got the $$$ with Miami, in a 26-point blowout.  The Rockets will once again play at home tonight, and we'll grab the points with Houston, as I look for them to bounce back today.  Indeed, home teams that lost by 15+ points at home the previous day, have cashed 69% since 1990 when matched up against opponents off a SU/ATS home win.  Take the Rockets + the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Charlotte.  Miami won its second straight game last night, with a 124-107 blowout of Cleveland.  It will seek its 3rd straight win and cover tonight, as it travels to Charlotte to play the Hornets.  It's true that Charlotte has defeated Miami in each of the first two meetings this season.  But double-revenging road favorites (or PK) have cashed 59% in the regular season since 1990 if they were off a SU win.  Take Miami.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Sacramento.  These two teams met six days ago, and the Mavs were upset on the road, 113-106, by Sacramento.  Dallas hasn't lost since, and it eked out a 1-point win against Washington last night.  Today, Dallas will go for its 4th straight win and cover, and has been installed as a big favorite vs. the Kings, who upset the Lakers on Friday.  Unfortunately for Sacramento, it's covered just 50 of 122 games off a win, if it was a road underdog against a revenge-minded foe.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Denver Nuggets.  These two Western conference rivals are battling it out for 3rd place, so this game will go a long way toward determining the teams' playoff seeding.  We'll go against Denver off its double-digit victory against Toronto, and take Los Angeles to bounce back off its 109-101 defeat at Phoenix on Wednesday.  That was the Clippers' second straight defeat.  But each of those losses was on the road; tonight's game is at home.  And L.A. is a solid 45-20 ATS off a loss, including 10-1 ATS when favored by 7 or less points against a winning team.  Meanwhile, Denver is a horrid 15-38 ATS away from home off a win by 9+ points.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met three weeks ago, and Minnesota thoroughly embarrassed New Orleans, 135-105, as an 8-point underdog.  That 30-point loss was the first time in franchise history that New Orleans lost by 30+ points as a favorite of -5 (or more) points.  But we'll lay the points with the Pelicans tonight, as favorites have covered 62.6% since 1990 when playing with revenge from a 15-point (or worse) upset loss as an 8-point (or greater) favorite.  Take New Orleans.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Houston.  The Rockets come into this game off an upset win over the Milwaukee Bucks, 143-136, while Golden State checks in off 2 SU/ATS losses.  We'll lay the points with the Warriors tonight, as Golden State is 33-17 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, if it was playing an opponent off a win.  Even better:  NBA home teams not favored by 7+ points, have cashed just 32% since 1991 off an upset home win as a 7-point (or greater) underdog, if they were playing an opponent off a SU loss in their current game.  Take the Warriors.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  We're coming down to the wire in this NBA season, so this game will go a long way toward determining the #1 seed in the Playoffs.  Currently, Utah resides in first place, while Phoenix is just one game behind.  This has been an underdog-oriented series of late, as the dog has cashed each of the last four meetings.  Tonight, Utah's the underdog, primarily because it will play without All Stars Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley.  But there's still enough firepower on Utah's roster to get the 'W.'  Indeed, the Jazz scored 154 points on Wednesday (the most points scored by an NBA team this season), in a 49-point blowout of the Sacramento Kings.  We played on the Jazz in that game, and will come right back with them tonight.  For technical support, consider that .720 (or better) NBA road underdogs of 2+ points have covered 73.6% in the regular season since 1990 when playing with double revenge.  Take the Jazz + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Two nights ago, the Thunder snapped their 14-game losing streak with an upset win over the Boston Celtics.  But off that rare victory, we'll fade OKC as a home underdog on Thursday.  Indeed, home dogs of +8 (or more) points off an upset win have covered just 33% since 1991 vs. non-division foes off a straight-up loss.  Take the Pelicans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings upset Dallas, 113-106, on Monday, while the Jazz come into this game off back to back upset losses -- both to the Minnesota Timberwolves.  We played on Utah in its last game and (unfortunately) lost.  But we'll come right back with the Jazz tonight, as Sacramento is a terrible 19-40 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, when it is playing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss.  And NBA favorites are 71.1% ATS since 1991 off a SU loss as a double-digit road favorite, if they're playing an opponent off a win.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Toronto.  These Atlantic division rivals met six days ago here, in Tampa (the Raptors' home base for the season), and the Raptors prevailed, 114-103.  That game, though, was a good set-up for Toronto, as it was well-rested, while the Nets had played the previous night.  And neither Kevin Durant nor James Harden played for Brooklyn in that game.  Durant is healthy again, and Brooklyn is currently riding a two-game win streak, with impressive wins over Boston and Phoenix.  The Nets are a super 44-21 ATS on the road when playing with revenge.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Charlotte.  The Bucks were stung by the Hornets in the last meeting, as Charlotte upset them, 127-119.  But with revenge on its mind, and also off an upset loss in its previous game, we'll look for Milwaukee to bounce back this evening.   And Charlotte's win a few weeks ago must be taken with a grain of salt, as Giannis Antetokounmpo didn't play in that game.   But the MVP is back on the court now, and scored 31 points on Sunday vs. Atlanta.  Milwaukee's 45-20 ATS as a road favorite, priced from -5.5 to -10.5 points, while Charlotte is a horrible 46-89 ATS at home vs. non-division foes playing back to back road games, if such foe failed to cover the spread in its previous game.  Lay the points with the Bucks.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the Indiana Pacers.  Portland plays this game with revenge from a 24-point upset home loss to these Pacers on January 14.  And that bodes well for the Blazers, as they've cashed 75% over the last 31 years as a favorite of -2 (or more) points, when playing with revenge from a double-digit home loss.  And, notwithstanding its loss to Indiana in January, the Trail Blazers are still 13-3 ATS vs. the Pacers in the last 16 meetings, including 6-1 here in Indianapolis, and 7-0 ATS if Indy was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with Portland.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met two nights ago in Salt Lake City, and the T-Wolves stunned the Jazz, 101-96, as a 12-point underdog.  And even more stunning is the fact that the 17-44 Timberwolves also defeated the 44-16 Jazz in the season's first meeting -- also in Salt Lake -- as a 9.5-point underdog, 116-111.  But with revenge from those two losses, we'll lay the points with Utah tonight, as double-revenge-minded road teams have cashed 90% over the last 31 seasons if they owned a win percentage at least 33% greater than their opponent.  Even worse for the T-Wolves:  in the regular season, teams playing back to back games against the same opponent are a horrible 23.8% ATS since 1995 if they won the first meeting on the road as an underdog of 7 (or more) points.  As faithful followers know, I love playing against bad teams off wins.  And Minnesota is a wallet-breaking 5-17-1 ATS off an upset win, including 0-12 ATS when priced as an underdog from +6 to +17 points.  Take Utah to blow out Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over New York.  The Knicks come into this game off nine straight wins, including double-digit upset wins over Atlanta (137-127) and Toronto (120-103) in their last two.  Unfortunately for New York, underdogs off back to back double-digit upset wins, in which they scored 120+ points, have gone 0-10 ATS.  Take Phoenix to blow out New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  The Lakers come into tonight's game on a 3-Game SU/ATS losing streak.  But those three losses were to the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks (twice).  Tonight's game is against the Orlando Magic, who are on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak (and who have lost 11 of their last 12 games).  The problem for the Magic is that they've had a "red carpet" defense of late.  Four of their last five opponents have shot 50% from the floor.  The Magic are an atrocious 4-17-1 ATS at home vs. foes off a loss, including 1-10-1 ATS as an underdog.  Lay the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Atlanta.  These two teams have already met twice this season, with each game won by the Hawks.  But both games were competitive (Detroit lost by eight, 128-120, on December 28, and in overtime on January 20), and both games were in Atlanta.  Tonight's game is in the Motor City, and we'll grab the points with the home underdog.  The Pistons are competing hard this season for coach Dwane Casey, and they're at their best when they're off an ATS loss, as they're 20-5 ATS in that situation, including 8-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Atlanta will be at a scheduling disadvantage tonight, as it will be unrested, and playing its 3rd game in four nights (and fifth game in seven nights).  Meanwhile, the Pistons are rested.  And revenge-minded NBA teams off a loss have cashed 59.2% ATS vs. unrested foes off a win that were playing their 3rd game in four nights.  Take the Pistons.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Charlotte.  This series has been dominated lately by the Celtics, as they've won the last four meetings by 21, 26, 17 and 30 points.  Even better for Boston:  it's 16-3-1 ATS over the last 20 meetings, including 10-1 ATS if the Hornets were off a win, and 7-0 ATS if Boston was laying 7+ points.  Boston does come into this game off a SU/ATS loss to the Brooklyn Nets, but it's a solid 34-18-2 ATS as a rested favorite, away from home, off a loss.  Meanwhile, the Hornets are a wallet-busting 24-47-2 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, if matched up against a rested, non-division foe off a loss.  Lay the points with the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Detroit.  This game will be the 2nd in two nights for Detroit, and also its fifth game in seven nights.  Unfortunately for Detroit, the Spurs have generally done well vs. unrested teams, as they've gone 100-73 ATS.  But those numbers zoom to 25-9 ATS if the Spurs are off an upset loss, including 5-1 ATS if San Antonio's foe was playing its fifth game in seven nights.  Last night, Gregg Popovich's crew were embarrassed here, at home, by the Miami Heat, 107-87.  We'll play on the Silver and Black to rebound this evening, as San Antonio is 41-12-2 ATS as a favorite off a loss by more than 17 points, when matched up against a foe off an ATS win.  Take San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met here, in Sacramento, last night.  And the Timberwolves came away with a 134-120 upset win.  Unfortunately for Minnesota, unrested teams off upset wins the previous day, have covered just 37% since Dec. 21, 1990, if they scored more than 130 points in that upset win.  Moreover, Minnesota is a poor 27-46-1 ATS off an upset road win, including 6-21 ATS when priced between +3 and +8 points.  Take the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Detroit.  The Mavs were upset by Sacramento, here at home, in their previous game, while Detroit upset the Cavaliers in its most recent game.  That bodes well for the Mavericks, as they're 116-72 ATS off a loss when playing an opponent off a win.  Lay the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the New York Knicks.  Last night, New York covered the point spread in its 10th straight game.  But we'll fade New York tonight, as home teams have covered just 13% of the time off 10+ ATS wins in the regular season, if they also covered the spread by 5+ points in their previous game.  Take Atlanta + the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over the New York Knicks.  It's often said that "all good things must come to an end," and that's the case today with the Knicks ATS win streak.  Dating back to April 3, New York has covered its last eight games.  But New York is a horrid 0-12 ATS if it was on a 7-game (or better) ATS win streak, and wasn't getting 6+ points in its current game.  This is also a rematch of a game won by the Knicks, 116-106, in New Orleans this past Wednesday.  But New York is a wallet-breaking 34.6% ATS over the last 31 years as a favorite of more than 2 points against a non-conference foe it upset in the previous meeting earlier in the season.  Finally, New Orleans comes into this game off back to back upset defeats.  However, the Pelicans are 8-1 ATS their last 9 off two straight upset losses.  Take the points with New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  This will be Miami's final game in its 4-game road trip.  And, after losing back to back games against Phoenix and Denver, Miami will no doubt be happy to play the NBA's worst team tonight.  Minnesota has won just 14 of its 56 games this season.  And, since 1990, losing teams are a poor 43% ATS as home dogs in non-division games vs. rested, winning teams off back to back losses.  Additionally, Miami is 25-6 ATS away from home off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks over the Atlanta Hawks.  Giannis Antetokounmpo has just been upgraded to 'probable,' so we'll put the trigger on the Bucks.  Both teams do come into this game on win streaks.  The Bucks routed the Magic by 37, and the Timberwolves by 25.  Meanwhile, Atlanta's won its last three in a row, including back to back upset wins over Charlotte and Toronto in their last two.  Generally speaking, I like to go against teams off back to back upset wins, and especially if they're matched up against foes also in good form, off back to back wins, themselves.  Dating back to 1990, our teams off back to back upset wins are a poor 166-228 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for Atlanta tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Hawks have lost 11 of the last 12 meetings, straight-up, vs. Milwaukee.  And Atlanta's only win was by a single point, 136-135, in overtime.  Finally, Atlanta's a poor 20-39 ATS as home dogs off a win, if they're matched up against a non-division foe.  Lay the points with Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Mavs come into tonight's game off back to back home losses, including an 18-point blowout at the hands of the Philly 76ers.  I love Dallas to rebound off those defeats, and get the W tonight at Memphis.  Indeed, the Mavs are 24-6 straight-up, and 23-6-1 ATS their last 30 as road favorites of less than 7 points, including a perfect 4-0 ATS off back to back losses.  Even better:  Dallas is a terrific 77-39-1 ATS off a loss by 14+ points.  And it's 116-71 ATS off a loss, if its opponent was off a straight-up win.  Take the Mavericks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors. It has just been announced that Trae Young will not play for Atlanta, so that's enough for us to pull the trigger on the Raptors. Take Toronto tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  We played on Houston last Monday vs. these Suns, and got the cash when the Rockets lost by just three points, 133-130, as a 14-point home underdog.  And we also played on the Suns in their last game, which was an easy win for us vs. the Wizards (134-106).  Tonight, we'll once again take Houston as a double-digit underdog, as it comes into this game off back to back blowout losses, at the Clippers, and at the Warriors.  But Houston is a solid 91-59 ATS on the road as an underdog off back to back ATS losses, including 39-17 ATS when playing with revenge.  And Phoenix is a horrid 9-29 ATS as a favorite of 9+ points, if it was off a win, in which it covered by 9+ points.  And the Suns are also 0-7 ATS their last seven vs. Houston, if the Suns were off a double-digit win.  Take the Rockets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  Milwaukee's banged-up right now, as many key players (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton) missed its last game -- a 127-119 loss to Charlotte.  The good news tonight is that Milwaukee should still have its way with the Magic, regardless of which Bucks players suit up for this game.  Orlando's lost four straight, and 17 of 21.  And it's an awful 16-33 ATS its last 49 vs. .595 (or better) foes.  Milwaukee, meanwhile, is 34-17 ATS vs. sub-.650 foes, if Milwaukee lost its previous game.  Finally, over the last 31 years, road favorites with a win percentage greater than .600, have covered 65% off 3 SU/ATS losses, if matched up against a non-division foe.  Lay the points with Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Charlotte.  These two teams are surprisingly having strong seasons, as they sit in the 4th (Charlotte) and 5th (Atlanta) spots in the Eastern conference.  So, this game is critical for playoff positioning.  We'll take the Hawks, as they fall into a 145-66 ATS revenge system of mine, after losing, 113-105, to the Hornets in the last meeting.  Additionally, the Hawks are 11-3 ATS when playing with revenge from a road loss.  And, since 1990, they've cashed 67% as road favorites vs. winning teams, if Atlanta was playing with revenge from an upset loss.  Lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Washington Wizards.  Yesterday, the Wizards upset Golden State, 110-107, as a 4.5-point road underdog.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Washington in the Valley of the Sun tonight, as Phoenix is playing with revenge from a 128-107 upset loss to Washington earlier this season.  The Suns are 33-18 ATS this season -- an NBA best -- and they're doing their best work at home, where they've covered the spread by 3.37 points per game.  The Suns are 15-5 ATS their last 20 at home, and they also fall into a 58-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain .673 (or better) teams playing with revenge from losses by more than 20 points.  Finally, since 1997, Phoenix has covered 63% at home off a loss vs. foes off upset road wins.  Take Phoenix to blow out Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies and Hawks both played last night.  Memphis went into Miami, and upset the Heat, 124-112, for its 3rd straight win (and 5th straight cover).  Meanwhile, Atlanta defeated New Orleans here, at home, 123-107, for its fourth straight win and cover.  We'll go against Memphis tonight, as this will be its 3rd road game in four nights.  And NBA teams that were playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights, have covered just 37% over the past 31 seasons if they were off two wins, and matched up against an opponent with a better W/L record, which was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  The Hawks are a super 105-56-4 ATS at home in the regular season vs. foes off 3+ wins, including 31-8-2 ATS its last 41 if its opponent was unrested.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Philadelphia.  These two teams met earlier this season in Philadelphia for a back-to-back set.  And the 76ers won each of those two games, by 8 and 12 points, respectively.  But this game is in Boston, and we'll take the homestanding Celtics to avenge those defeats.  Boston comes into this game off back-to-back blowout wins over Houston (118-102) and Charlotte (116-86), and has gone 5-2 ATS its last seven.  That bodes well for Brad Stevens men tonight, as they're 56-23 ATS off a home blowout win by more than 20 points.  And they're 32-12 ATS at home when not favored by 3+ points, including a perfect 9-0 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Philadelphia, meanwhile, has dropped four of its last five to the point spread.  And the 76ers are a poor 8-22-1 ATS as road favorites vs. .500 (or better) foes off a win, including 0-7-1 ATS if their foe was playing with revenge.  Take the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Rockets are 2-25 straight-up, and 5-22 ATS over their last 27 games.  Their problems started when forward Christian Wood sustained an injury in the February 4 game at Memphis, and the Rockets lost their next 20 games.  But Wood returned to action on March 17.  And, then, over the next week, Houston made roster moves to bring in Kelly Olynyk, Avery Bradley, D.J. Augustin, and D.J. Wilson.  And it is now playing better basketball, as it's 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS its last seven, and has "only" been outscored by an average of 4.42 ppg over this stretch.  Tonight, Houston has been installed as a huge home underdog against the Western conference's #2 seed, the Phoenix Suns, who are on a 5-game winning streak.  This is a letdown spot, as the Suns blew out Oklahoma City by 37 points on Friday, and have games against the two teams (Jazz, Clippers) that sit above and below them in the standings, on Wednesday and Thursday.  We'll take Houston tonight, as double-digit home underdogs, with a win percentage less than .285, off a straight-up loss, have gone 140-73 ATS vs. .630 (or better) foes that are off a straight-up win.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Atlanta.  The Warriors were blasted, 130-77, by the Toronto Raptors on Friday.  But off that loss, we'll take Golden State to rebound this evening against the Hawks.  The good news for Steve Kerr's troops is that superstar Steph Curry will be back on the court tonight.  Curry has missed six of the Warriors' last eight games, due to a tailbone contusion, but was upgraded to 'probable' on Saturday afternoon.  As faithful followers know, I love to play on teams off big losses.  And they don't get much worse than 53 points.  Indeed, NBA favorites (or PK) off losses by more than 40 points have cashed 68.1% over the last 31 seasons!  That bodes well for Golden State on Sunday night.  As does the fact that the Warriors will be playing this game with revenge from a 124-108 loss earlier this season in San Francisco.  And Golden State is a super 51-25 ATS on the road when playing with revenge.  Meanwhile, the Hawks have covered just 34 of 95 as underdogs against rested, revenge-minded foes that they beat by more than 10 points earlier in the season (and just 14 of 55 if their opponent was off a SU/ATS loss).  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Last night, the Kings were blown out here, at home, by the injury riddled Los Angeles Lakers.  Los Angeles played without LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and newly-signed Andre Drummond, which made Sacramento a 5-point home favorite.  No matter.  The Lakers won without their stars, 115-94.  Perhaps Sacramento thought it was going to have it easy, and lost focus?  But, as luck would have it, tonight they will face Milwaukee without MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.  However, with last night's result fresh in the minds of the Kings, I fully expect them to NOT take the Bucks lightly tonight.  Instead, I look for Sacramento to be focused, with an eye toward redeeming itself off its 21-point home loss last night.  The Bucks come into this game off back to back road wins.  But, since 1999, Milwaukee's covered just 38% on the road off back to back road wins.  Take Sacramento.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Orlando.  Will this finally be the year that Utah wins an NBA title?  The Jazz certainly are playing like it.  They're 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency; 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency; and #1 (by a mile) in Net adjusted efficiency.  Indeed, the only other teams that rank among the top 10 in both adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency are the Suns and Bucks.  But they're 3.75 and 4.24 points, respectively, behind Utah in Net adjusted efficiency.  Not surprisingly, the Jazz are also doing great "in Vegas," as they're #2 in the NBA with a .625 ATS win percentage (30-18 ATS), trailing only the Phoenix Suns (32-16 ATS).  Utah did, however, fail to cover the point spread in each of its two previous games.  But in the 2nd half of the NBA season (Game 42 forward), NBA teams with a .625 (or better) ATS win percentage, off back to back ATS losses, have rebounded to cover the spread 72.4% over the last 31 years when they were playing at home.  Even better:  Utah's 17-4 ATS its last 21 at home; 8-2 ATS its last 10 at home when playing without rest; and 151-109 ATS at home off back to back ATS losses.  Lay the points with the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Gonzaga.  I think it's safe to say that we should throw out UCLA's last four Pac-12 games (all losses) to end its conference season.  And that's because Mick Cronin's men have been a completely different animal in this tourney.  They've defeated Michigan State (86-80), BYU (73-62), Abilene Christian (67-47), Alabama (88-78) and Michigan (51-49).  But look more closely at their wins over Michigan State and Alabama, and you'll notice that both went into overtime.  In regulation, UCLA held Michigan State to 77 and Alabama to 65.  Thus, in this tournament, the Bruins have given up an average of 60 points per game in regulation.  That's impressive, in and of itself.  But then consider the teams that UCLA has faced.  Their opponents included Michigan, which ranks 9th in Ken Pomeroy's offensive efficiency rankings; BYU, which ranks 20th; and Alabama, which ranks 29th.  Yet through regulation time, UCLA held Michigan to its lowest offensive output of the season, BYU and Abilene Christian to their 2nd-lowest, and Alabama to its 5th-lowest.  Certainly, Gonzaga is another animal, altogether.  The Bulldogs rank #1 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and have yet to lose a game.  Indeed, Gonzaga has only played one team which came within single-digits (West Virginia, 87-82).  Still, I believe the points will be valuable today.  And, for technical support, consider that NCAA Tourney favorites of more than 10 points, off back to back double-digit SU/ATS wins, are a horrible 8-32 ATS against foes seeded #15 (or better).  Finally, in the NCAA's Final Four, favorites of more than eight points have gone 1-7 ATS since 1991, with only North Carolina (-10, 83-66) covering against Syracuse in 2016.  Take the points with the Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over the Baylor Bears.  The Cougars were an ATM Machine in Vegas during the regular season, as they went 18-8 ATS (.692 ATS pct.), and covered the point spread by an average of 5.32 ppg.  Those two marks ranked #8 and #4 of the 68 teams that qualified for the NCAA tournament (in contrast, Baylor ranked #25 and #35 in those metrics).  It took a last-second three-point shot by Oregon State to hand the Cougars a point spread defeat in their previous game.  But Houston is 8-0 ATS its last eight, and 28-8 ATS its last 36 off a point spread defeat!  The Cougars are also 13-2 ATS their last 15 as an underdog of less than 7 points, while Baylor is a wallet-busting 10-19 ATS vs. .866 (or better) teams off an ATS loss.  Finally, Houston gives up just 57.5 points per game, and ranks 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency in Ken Pomeroy's NCAA basketball ratings (in contrast, Baylor ranks 28th).  And the Cougars also prefer to play at a much slower pace than Baylor, as Houston's games average just 134.1 ppg -- much less than the Bears' 148.5 ppg.  That bodes well for the underdog, as in the semi-final round of the NCAA Tourney, teams with defenses that give up 63 or less points have covered 73.6% if they weren't favored by 4+ points!  Moreover, underdogs seeded #5 (or better), that average 134.5 (or less) points per game, have covered 61.9%, including 8-2 ATS in the semi-final round.  We'll take the points with the defensive-minded underdog in this game.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Cleveland.  The Sixers will once again play without center Joel Embiid tonight.  But Cleveland's injury problems are even worse.  We'll lay the points with Philly tonight, as it's playing with double-revenge from two losses to Cleveland earlier this season, including a 112-109 defeat as an 11.5-point favorite in the last meeting.  The good news for Philadelphia in this game is that winning NBA teams are 93-65 ATS when laying more than 6 points against a losing team, if our winning team was playing with double revenge.  Even better:  if our revenger was favored by 8+ points in the previous meeting, then our 93-65 stat zooms to 28-10 ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven.  It's true that Cleveland does come into this game off an embarrassing 39-point loss at Utah.  But the Cavaliers are 0-11 ATS their last 11, and 74-125-4 ATS their last 203 off a 17-point (or worse) defeat.  Take Philadelphia minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Sacramento.  These two teams met on Monday, here in the Alamo City. And the Kings blew out the Spurs, 132-115.  We'll lay the points with the Spurs in this rematch, as the Spurs are 29-12 ATS in the regular season at home, when playing with revenge.  Even better:  the Spurs are 64-27 ATS off a loss by 15+ points, if they weren't an underdog of more than 2 points in their current game, and their opponent wasn't off a SU/ATS loss.  And, finally, when the Spurs have played an opponent who the Spurs lost to in their previous game, they've gone 48-24-3 ATS if they were favored (or PK'em) in that next game.  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans + the points over Gonzaga.  This season, I've largely avoided playing on or against Gonzaga.  I only played on them once -- and won when they blew out Norfolk State in the opening round of this Tournament.  And I also only played against them once this season (and lost), as I didn't think there were many teams that had the right mix of players to compete with Gonzaga.  But USC is one of the teams that CAN compete with the Bulldogs.  So, we'll grab the points with the Trojans tonight.  For technical support, consider that, over the last 22 seasons, in the ELITE EIGHT round of the tournament, .700 (or better) teams seeded #4 (or worse) are a perfect 16-0-1 ATS vs. .800 (or better) opponents!  And, even better, USC comes into this game off 3 dominant wins over Drake (72-56), Kansas (85-51) and Oregon (82-68).  And their last two games were quite impressive, as they covered the point spread in each by double digits (Kansas +32.5; Oregon +11.5).  And that leads us to our second angle, which is 20-0-1 ATS, which plays on underdogs off 2 Tourney wins, in which they covered the spread by 28+ points combined, provided their opponent was off an ATS win, but didn't also cover its two previous games by 28+ points combined.  Take USC + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Washington.  The Wizards pulled off an upset, 132-124, last night, as a 7-point home underdog vs. Indiana.  Unfortunately, unrested teams off an upset home win, in which they scored 130+ points, have covered just 28% over the past 31 seasons.  That doesn't bode well for Washington tonight.  Nor does the fact that Charlotte blew it out by a 119-97 score when these two Southeast division rivals met last month.  And Washington is a poor 16-36 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat when it wasn't getting 4+ points in the current game.  Take Charlotte.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks + the points over Baylor.  We played on the 'under' in Arkansas' previous game (a 72-70 win over Oral Roberts), which was our Sweet 16 Total of the Year.  That game easily stayed under the total of 156.5, but Arkansas failed to cover the 11.5-point spread.  Baylor did cover the spread in its win over Villanova, but it took a furious rush in the 2nd half for the Bears to surpass the 7.5-point spread.  Off those two results, we'll take the points with the underdog Razorbacks tonight.  Indeed, in the NCAA tournament, it's been very profitable to back teams off ATS losses in the Tourney, if their opponent wasn't off an ATS defeat in its previous game, provided our team wasn't laying more than 1 points.  Dating back 24 years, this angle has cashed 67.2% of the time.  That bodes well for Arkansas tonight.  As does the fact that #1 seeds, off a double-digit win, and ATS win, have covered just 8 of 31 Elite Eight round games.  Take Arkansas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Houston.  The Rockets won for just the 2nd time over their last 24 games when the upset Minnesota, 129-107, on Saturday.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Houston tonight vs. Memphis, as sub-.300 home underdogs have covered just 28% over the last 31 years off an upset road win, if they were matched up against a division opponent off a SU/ATS road loss.  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over UCLA.  Last Monday, we played on each of these two teams, and got the $$$ with UCLA vs. Abilene Christian, and Alabama vs. Maryland.  At the start of this tournament, our projected final four was Baylor, Gonzaga, Alabama and West Virginia (with Baylor defeating Gonzaga in the final).  We now have three teams remaining after WVU was knocked out by Syracuse last weekend.  We'll look for Alabama to continue its strong play on this Sunday, as it comes into this Sweet 16 match-up on an 8-game win streak.  In its last game, it scored 96 points, which rated as the highest amount registered by an NCAA Tourney in the 2nd round over the last 10 seasons.  And NCAA Tourney teams are 96-68-2 ATS as a favorite of -6 (or more) points after scoring 88 or more in their previous game.  That bodes well for the Crimson Tide on Sunday.  As does the fact that teams seeded #11 (or worse) have covered just 3 of 16 Tourney games from the Sweet 16 round forward, if they were priced from +2 to +7.5 points.   Finally, UCLA is a wallet-busting 1-10 ATS its last 11 games in the Sweet 16.  Take Alabama to blow out the Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Michigan.  Both of these teams come into this game off impressive wins.  Michigan fought off a game LSU team to win, 86-78, as a 4-point favorite, while Florida State blew out Colorado, 71-53, as a 1-point favorite.  The Wolverines are a #1 seed, but they're only favored by a bucket today against the #4-seeded Seminoles.  And this "short line" spells trouble for Juwan Howard's men, as #1 seeds are a poor 32% ATS in the Tourney's Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds since 2000, if they weren't favored by more than 4 points, including 2-10 ATS if their opponent won their game by more than 12 points.  Florida State is 4-1-1 ATS its last 6 as an NCAA Tourney underdog.  And, three years ago, as a #9-seed, it gave then-No. 3-seeded Michigan everything it could handle in a 4-point loss in the Elite 8 round.  I look for FSU to pull the upset today.  Take the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Sunday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over the Mississippi State Bulldogs.  Yesterday we played on both Memphis (over Colorado State) and Mississippi State (over Louisiana Tech), and got the $$$ with each of them to move our mark this NIT season to 3-0-1 (or possibly 4-0).  In this championship game, we'll lay the points with the Tigers, as they fall into two of my better NIT Tourney systems, with records of 58-33, 24-11; and also a general post-season Tourney system which is 161-96-4 ATS since 1990.  Additionally, as I mentioned yesterday, Memphis is (now) 14-2 ATS its last 16 games, and 22-12 its last 34 post-season games.  Meanwhile, Miss State is an awful 7-23 ATS off an upset win, if it wasn't getting more than 5 points in its current game (including 1-11 ATS if it won its previous game by double-digits).  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Memphis.  These two teams met here in Salt Lake City last night, and the Jazz won, 117-114, as a 10-point home favorite, but failed to cover the spread.  But that game was an outlier for this Memphis team, as it had been 0-12 ATS its previous 12 road games when getting more than 4 points.  I look for a reversion to form tonight, and for Utah to blow out Memphis.  The Jazz are 12-1 ATS at home off back to back wins, and they're also 196-142-7 ATS at home vs. unrested foes when priced from -2 to -15 points.  Take the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met last night here in the Twin Cities, and Minnesota emerged victorious with a 107-101 victory as a 4.5-point home favorite.  We'll take the Rockets in the rematch, as .400 (or worse) teams have only covered the spread 33% of the time in back to back meetings since 1990, if they won the first meeting.  And Houston's 79-38 ATS as a road underdog off back to back ATS losses, if they also lost their previous game, straight-up.  Take the Rockets.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Houston/Minnesota game.  The Rockets have gone 'under' 28-13 in 2021, including 9-1 'under' in games with O/U lines greater than 227.  And they're also 13-0 'under' their last 13 when priced from +3 to +6 points.  Meanwhile, Minnesota's gone 'under' 13-4 when priced as a home favorite, including 7-0 'under' when laying more than 4 points.  Take the 'under.'

At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the game between Arkansas and Oral Roberts.  The Razorbacks have played their last four games 'under' the total, and I look for another relatively-low scoring game on this Saturday.  Indeed, teams that have gone under in a tournament's first two games have continued to go under 64.7% in their 3rd game of that post-season tournament.  And the 'under' also falls into 86-61 and 36-20 post-season Totals systems of mine.  Finally, Arkansas is 25-14 'under' in non-conference games.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  Mississippi State won a thriller in the semi-final round on Thursday, when it hit a 3-pointer to garner a 68-67 victory against Richmond (though it failed to cover the 4.5-point spread).  Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, knocked out fellow Conference USA member Western Kentucky, 72-65, as a 1-point favorite.  These two teams actually met last season, and Louisiana Tech went into Starkville and upset Miss State, 74-67, as a 7.5-point road dog.  But that sets up our play on this Saturday, as Mississippi State falls into 37-20 and 76-32 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Additionally, Mississippi State is an awesome 73-30 ATS when playing with revenge if it is not off a SU/ATS win, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in the post-season.  Finally, Miss State falls into 24-5, 9-1, 129-91, 28-7, and 83-55 ATS post-season systems of mine.  Lay the points with Mississippi State.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Colorado State.  These two teams were both given #1 seeds by the NIT Tournament committee.  The Tigers earned their berth into this semi-final round with a 69-66 triumph over Boise State, while Colorado State dispatched North Carolina State with a 4-point upset win, 65-61, as a 2-point underdog.  Unfortunately for Boise, in the post-season, teams seeded #3 (or better) are a soft 100-138 ATS off an upset win, if installed as an underdog of +1.5 (or more) points.  Memphis also is 13-2 ATS its last 15 games, and 21-12 ATS its last 33 post-season games, while Boise is 4-10 ATS in the post-season vs. non-conference foes.  Take the Tigers minus the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Toronto.  The Suns pulled a clunker on Wednesday night, as they were upset by the Magic, 112-111, as a 9.5-point road favorite.  But we'll look for Phoenix to rebound tonight, as it's 12-1 ATS its last 13, and 44-13 ATS its last 57, off an upset road loss, including 8-0 ATS vs. an opponent off an upset win.  With Toronto, indeed, off an upset of Denver in its last game, we'll fade the Raptors tonight.  Take Phoenix minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Los Angeles.  The Clippers led wire-to-wire last night, and blew out San Antonio, 134-101.  Off that blowout defeat, we'll back San Antonio tonight in the rematch.  For technical support, consider that San Antonio is 29-11 ATS its last 40 at home in the regular season when playing with revenge.  Likewise, the Clippers are an awful 15-38 ATS off a SU/ATS win, when favored by 4+ points against a revenge-minded foe.  And, league-wide, NBA home dogs of +6 (or more) points, that lost by 19+ points the previous day at home, have cashed 61.1% over the past 31 seasons.  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Brooklyn.  This is a huge revenge game for the Jazz, who suffered their worst loss of this season earlier this year against the Nets.  Brooklyn won that game by 34 points.  But tonight's game is a great set-up for the homestanding Jazz.  Brooklyn had to play Portland last night in a game which went down to the wire.  The Nets did win that game (their second straight), but teams off back-to-back wins are a wallet-busting 31-54 ATS when playing without rest on the road against a rested Jazz team, and not getting more than 10 points.  And rested Northwest division teams, with a .600 (or better) record, are 91-54 ATS in the regular season off a win, if they were playing with revenge.  Take Utah to blow out Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Los Angeles.  The Spurs already defeated the Clippers once this season.  And they'll get two more tries at it this week, as this is the first of a 2-game home series vs. ex-Spur Kawhi Leonard's Clippers.  The Spurs come into this game off back to back losses to Milwaukee + Charlotte.  But San Antone is 86-50 ATS at home off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Take the Spurs as a home underdog.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder finished off their four-game road trip with back to back upset wins over the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves.  But those two teams have a combined record of 22-63.  Memphis, on the other hand, is a .500 ball club.  It's true that OKC recently upset Memphis, 128-122, as a 9.5-point home underdog, on March 14.  But the Grizz are an awesome 27-5 ATS when playing with revenge against an opponent off a win, when Memphis not getting more than 7 points.   And losing teams are a poor 61-100 ATS as underdogs when playing a revenge-minded team they upset as 9-point (or greater) underdogs in the previous meeting.  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Pepperdine.  We succesfully played on the underdog Stetson Hatters not once, but twice, in the first two rounds of this CBI Tournament.  Yesterday's ATS win by Stetson came at the expense of this Coastal Carolina team, though Coastal was able to survive in overtime to win by 5, as a 7.5-point favorite.  And Stetson's ATS success continued a long-term trend in this CBI Tournament which has favored taking the points, as underdogs are now 110-93 ATS, including 55-38 ATS off a point spread defeat.  That bodes well for Coastal Carolina tonight.  As does the fact that Pepperdine is a horrible 34-57-1 ATS as a favorite vs. non-conference foes, while Coastal Carolina is 19-7 ATS as an underdog vs. non-conference foes, if the Chanticleers won their previous game.  Take Coastal Carolina + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors over the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets won at Orlando lat night, 110-99.  But off that win, we will fade Nikola Jokic & Co. this evening.  Indeed, Denver is a dreadful 3-19 ATS as a road favorite off a win by more than 8 points.  Meanwhile, Toronto is 95-62 ATS off back to back losses.  I look for Nick Nurse's men to snap their losing streak tonight.  Take Toronto.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Brooklyn.  We played against Portland on Sunday, and got the $$$ when Dallas blew them out by 40 points, 132-92.  We'll take the Trail Blazers to bounce back on Tuesday, as rested home teams have gone 61% ATS off a blowout home loss by 25+ points, if they were matched up against a winning opponent which won its previous game.  Take the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Stetson Hatters + the points over Coastal Carolina.  We played on Stetson yesterday as a huge underdog (opened +9.5, closed +6.5) vs. Bowling Green, and the Hatters won outright, 53-52.  We'll come right back with Stetson today as an underdog vs. Coastal Carolina.  The Chanticleers are a poor 6-13 ATS as a favorite priced from -6.5 to -20 points, including 1-6 ATS off a win by more than 5 points, and 0-9 ATS if they didn't have a losing record against the spread.  Likewise, favorites of 6+ points have burned money in the CBI Tournament, including 16-35 ATS their last 51.  Finally, Atlantic Sun Conference teams have gone 49-33 in the post-season vs. non-conference foes, including 34-20 ATS as an underdog of 5+ points, and 16-7 ATS if they covered the spread by 6+ points in their previous game.  Grab the points with the Hatters.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans over Kansas.  Going into this tournament, the Big 10 Conference was the nation's best.  But we're 45 games in, and just Michigan and Maryland remain.  Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue have all been sent packing.  Not surprisingly, the Big 10 has gone a collective 5-8 ATS.  Meanwhile, the Pac-12 conference has been perfect.  And not just on the scoreboard, but also "in Vegas," as the conference from the Left Coast is 7-0 SU/ATS.  UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, Colorado and USC have done the Pac-12 proud, although three of the teams are still left to play today.  One is USC, which will take on Big 12-member Kansas tonight (the Big 12 teams will be 5-7 ATS if Oklahoma can't come back on Gonzaga (they're down 17, as of this writing)).  We'll take the Trojans in this game, as they fall into a 69-30 ATS 2nd Round system of mine, which goes against Kansas off its 93-84 win over Eastern Washington.  Additionally, the Jayhawks failed to cover the spread against Eastern Washington, and are just 2-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes this season (and 0-6 ATS when not favored by 20+ points).  Meanwhile, the Trojans are 5-3 ATS vs. non-conference foes, including a perfect 4-0 ATS when priced from +2 to -13 points.  Take USC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Maryland.  The Crimson Tide won the SEC Conference Tournament, and then defeated Iona in the opening round.  They'll now take on the Maryland Terrapins, who upset UConn in its first game.  Unfortunately for the Terrapins, underdogs off upset wins in the first round of the Tournament, priced from +4.5 to +10 points, have covered just 13 of 41 vs. foes that won their conference tournament.   Lay the points with Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over LSU.  The #1-seeded Wolverines enter this game on their first 2-game point spread losing streak of the season.  I like Michigan to bounce back tonight, as #1 seeds off back to back ATS losses have gone 30-3 SU and 22-10-1 ATS.  And Michigan is 8-1 ATS its last 9, and 18-6 ATS its last 24 post-season games off a point spread defeat.  Lay the points with the Wolverines.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays minus the points over Ohio.  The Bobcats shocked the defending National Champion Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday, as they won 62-58, as a 7-point underdog.  And that was Ohio's 4th straight win and cover.  But off that big upset win, we will fade the #13 seed this evening.  Indeed, teams seeded 12th (or worse) have covered just 20% in the 2nd Round of the Tournament when installed as an underdog of 7 or less points, if they were off 2 SU/ATS wins, and their opponent was not.  And Mid-American Conference teams off a SU/ATS win are a soft 9-19 ATS in the Tourneys against non-conference foes not off an ATS win.  Finally, Creighton has covered 86% over the last 31 seasons off back to back ATS losses, if its opponent was off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with the Bluejays today.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Abilene Christian.  The Bruins drew a short straw and was forced to play a "First Four" game in order to qualify for the first round of the tournament.  The Bruins won that game against Michigan State, and then used it as a springboard to upset BYU on Thursday.  I won't step in front of the Bruins today, as teams seeded 5th (or worse) off a Tourney win, have gone 16-0-1 ATS when favored by more than 4 points against a .715 (or better) foe.  Take UCLA.