03-07-20 |
Chattanooga v. NC-Greensboro -6 |
Top |
78-68 |
Loss |
-101 |
12 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the NC Greensboro Spartans minus the points over UT-Chattanooga. The Mocs defeated the Spartans last Saturday, 74-72, as a 3.5-point underdog. But that upset win has set-up Chattanooga in several negative systems of mine, with records of 54-86, 141-222 and 47-101 ATS since 1990. Even worse: the Mocs are an awful 1-9 ATS their last 10 tourney games off a straight-up win, while the Spartans are a strong 15-4 ATS as a favorite when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the year. Take NC Greensboro. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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03-07-20 |
Murray State v. Belmont -3 |
Top |
75-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over Murray State. The Bruins are red-hot, with 11 straight wins coming into this Ohio Valley title game. These two teams also met last season in the Ohio Valley Conference Championship game, and the Bruins were upset by Murray State, 77-65. We'll take Belmont to turn the tables on Murray State, as NCAA teams off 9 (or more) wins have cashed 60% in the championship game of the Conference Tourneys over the last 28 years. Lay the points.
|
03-07-20 |
James Madison +2.5 v. Elon |
Top |
61-63 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes + the points over Elon. The Dukes lost both meetings to the Phoenix this season, but they've cashed 69% over the past 25 years when playing with double-revenge, while Elon has covered just 20% over the last 15 seasons against an opponent it defeated twice earlier in the season. The Dukes also fall into 15-2, 84-39 and 89-60 ATS "contrarian" systems of mine that play on certain teams on losing streaks. Take James Madison + the points.
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03-07-20 |
Valparaiso +2.5 v. Missouri State |
Top |
89-82 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Valparaiso Crusaders plus the points over Missouri State. Both of these teams are playing good basketball. The Bears have gone 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS with their lone ATS loss in this stretch to Vaparaiso, while Valpo has cashed 7 of its last 9, including an upset win over Loyola-Chicago yesterday. We'll grab the points with the underdog Crusaders, as they're 8-3 ATS their last 11 vs. Missouri St, while the Bears are 4-13 ATS as a favorite in the Missouri Valley Conference tourney. Take Valparaiso.
|
03-07-20 |
Rockets -8 v. Hornets |
Top |
99-108 |
Loss |
-104 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Charlotte. The Rockets come into this evening's game off back to back SU/ATS losses to the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Clippers. But Houston was 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS immediately preceding this losing streak. I love Houston to rebound today on the road, as it's a super 84-51 ATS on the road off back to back SU/ATS defeats. Admittedly, the Hornets are playing well, as they've covered five straight. But Charlotte's a very poor 10-30 ATS at home off 3 straight ATS wins, including 4-19 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up loss. Finally, the Rockets have dominated the Hornets, as they're 17-1 SU and 11-4-3 ATS since 2011. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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03-07-20 |
NC-Wilmington v. Drexel -4 |
Top |
55-66 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Drexel Dragons minus the points over NC Wilmington. The Dragons have dropped seven straight games (1-6 ATS), but we'll lay the points with them this afternoon, as they fall into a 78-28 ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams in the Conference tourneys. Drexel lost just nine days ago at Wilmington, 76-65. And revenge-minded favorites of 4 points or less have gone 17-2 ATS in the Colonial Athletic Ass'n Tourney if they were off a loss to end the regular season. Take Drexel.
|
03-07-20 |
Rutgers v. Purdue -5.5 |
Top |
71-68 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Rutgers. The Boilermakers lost, 70-63, at Rutgers earlier this season. But the Scarlet Knights were playing much better basketball at that time, as they were 16-5, and ranked among the Top 25. Unfortunately, since that game, the Scarlet Knights have gone 3-6, including 0-5 away from home! For the season, Rutgers has won just one of its 11 games away from home, so that doesn't bode well against a Purdue squad which is 11-4 SU at home, and 9-6 ATS. Even better: the Boilermakers are 68-46 ATS as single-digit home favorite vs. winning Big 10 Conference foes. Finally, Rutgers falls into a negative 69-146 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams on the road off a win. Lay the points with Purdue. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
03-06-20 |
Wyoming v. Utah State -15.5 |
Top |
82-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over Wyoming. The Cowboys have won two straight games after upsetting Nevada last night, as a 10.5-point underdog. And that followed another upset win as a double-digit underdog vs. Colorado St. to start their Conference tournament play. Unfortunately, it's highly unlikely that the Cowboys will pull off another win as a double-digit underdog tonight, as the Aggies won both meetings this season by 20+ points. For technical support, consider that teams off outright wins in the quarter-finals round of a Conference tournament have only covered the spread 37% of the time over the last 30 years vs. foes off an ATS loss. And teams off back to back SU/ATS wins in the Conference Tourney have covered just 1 of 18 in the semi-final round if they lost by 20+ points in the season's previous meeting. Take Utah State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
03-06-20 |
Ohio v. Miami-OH -1.5 |
Top |
67-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks minus the points over Ohio U. The RedHawks were blown out by 31 points by Ohio U. back on February 8, 77-46. But since that game, Miami has gone 6-1 ATS, including three straight point spread wins coming into tonight's game. We'll lay the points with the RedHawks, as favorites off 3+ ATS wins have cashed 73% over the past 27 sesaons, if they had revenge from a loss to a conference foe by more than 28 points. Take Miami-Ohio.
|
03-06-20 |
VMI -3.5 v. Samford |
Top |
96-78 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 5 pm, our selection is on the VMI Keydets minus the points over Samford. The Bulldogs didn't win very many Southern Conference games this season, as they were just 4-14 inside the league. But two of their wins came against today's opponent, VMI. We'll take the Keydets today, as Southern Conference teams have cashed 78.9% in the Conference Tourney, if they were favored and lost all the season's meetings to their opponent. Take VMI.
|
03-06-20 |
Drake +9 v. Northern Iowa |
Top |
77-56 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Drake Bulldogs + the points over Northern Iowa. We played on the Bulldogs yesterday, and easily got the $$$ when they blew out Illinois State, 75-65. We'll come right back with Drake this afternoon, as they'll face a Northern Iowa team which embarrassed it last Saturday on Drake's home court. The Bulldogs were a 3.5-point home underdog, but were held to their lowest offensive output in over 5 years, and lost 70-43. The good news for the Bulldogs here is that revenge-minded Missouri Valley teams have gone 136-85 ATS if they lost by 18+ points earlier in the season, and were not favored by more than 3 points! Additionally, the Panthers fall into negative 82-168 and 43-107 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off road wins. Take Drake + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
03-05-20 |
Washington State v. Arizona -14.5 |
Top |
62-83 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats minus the points over Washington State. The Cougars won a rare road game last Friday night, when they went into Seattle and defeated their rival, Washington. Still that was Wazzu's first road win in the Pac-12 this season, after starting 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS on the Pac-12 road. And it's a horrid 19-85 straight-up, and 35-65-4 ATS on the Pac-12 road its last 104 road games, including 11-31-1 ATS vs. foes off an ATS defeat. The Wildcats had a disastrous trip to Southern California last weekend, as they lost to both USC and UCLA. But Arizona's back home, where it's gone 14-4 SU and 12-6 ATS its last 18. And it's also 16-8 ATS at home off back to back SU/ATS losses. Finally, the Wildcats fall into a 111-45 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset defeats. Lay the points with Arizona. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
03-05-20 |
Eastern Illinois v. Austin Peay -5.5 |
Top |
65-76 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Austin Peay Governors minus the points over Eastern Illinois. In this Ohio Valley Tourney game, we'll take the Governors to avenge their 83-80 loss 12 days ago to the Panthers. That game was on the road in Charleston, where the Panthers went 10-2 this season. This game will be played at a neutral site, in Evansville, Indiana. And that bodes well for the Governors, as they've won just five of their last 17 road games, but are 26-0 straight-up, and 11-4-2 ATS at home, or on a neutral court when favored. And Austin Peay also falls into a 188-100 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain teams favored in the post-season. Take the Governors.
|
03-05-20 |
Evansville +7.5 v. Valparaiso |
Top |
55-58 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Evansville Purple Aces + the points over Valparaiso. The Crusaders have not been a strong post-season team "in Vegas," and especially not when they've matched-up against an opponent with a win percentage less than .800 which wasn't off a double-digit win. In that situation, the Crusaders are 0-18 ATS. That doesn't bode well today against an Evansville team which is 9-22 on the season. These two teams played exceptionally close games this season, with Valpo taking both meetings by exactly two points. Unfortunately, teams that won both meetings by 2 points or less have NOT fared well in the conference tournaments, and especially not if they played the tourney game away from home, as they've cashed just 29% since 1990. Take Evansville + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
03-05-20 |
New Mexico v. Utah State -11.5 |
Top |
70-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over New Mexico. The Aggies lost to New Mexico, 66-64, last Saturday. That game was in Albuquerque, but this game will be played at a neutral site, in Las Vegas. The Lobos went 15-3 at home this season, and have also gone 23-15 ATS their last 38 home games. But away from Albuquerque, it's been a different story, as UNM is a poor 9-22 straight-up, and 10-19 ATS, including 1-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog. Even better: Utah State's a terrific 24-11-2 ATS at home, or on a neutral court when playing with revenge, including 12-1 ATS if the Aggies weren't off a point spread win. Finally, New Mexico falls into negative 13-42 and 44-91 ATS Tournament systems of mine that go against certain teams off wins. Take Utah State minus the points.
|
03-05-20 |
San Diego +2.5 v. Loyola Marymount |
Top |
61-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Toreros plus the points over Loyola Marymount. Both of these teams come into this West Coast Conference tourney game off losses. The Toreros fell, 71-64, at home vs. Pacific last Saturday, while the Lions lost at home, 69-67, to San Francisco. Each team also had a miserable season, as the Toreros won just two conference games, while Loyola Marymount was slightly better, at 4-12, including a six-point win vs. San Diego back in January. But the Lions had the benefit of playing that game at home, in Los Angeles. This game will be played at a neutral site, in Las Vegas. We'll grab the points with the underdog Toreros, as revenge-minded conference foes are an awesome 40-12 ATS away from home vs. Loyola Marymount, including a perfect 15-0 ATS if our revenger had a win percentage less than .355. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
03-05-20 |
Oakland v. Green Bay -4 |
Top |
63-78 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix minus the points over Oakland. These two teams met just 11 days ago, and the Golden Grizzlies won, 92-88. But that game was in Rochester; this game will be played in Green Bay. And the Phoenix are an awesome 19-0-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge, if they weren't favored by more than 10 points, and didn't cover the spread in their previous game. With the Phoenix indeed off an ATS loss last Saturday to Cleveland St, our 19-0 ATS angle is triggered. Lay the points with the Phoenix.
|
03-05-20 |
Nuggets -10 v. Hornets |
Top |
114-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Charlotte. The Hornets come into this game on a 4-game point spread win streak, but tonight's game is an example of facing the wrong opponent at the wrong time. The Nuggets were favored by 16 points over Golden State on Tuesday, but actually lost by 16, 116-100. After the game, Denver's All-Star center, Nikola Jokic said, "it happens." Well, it hasn't happened very often. Since 1990, it was just the fourth time that an NBA team lost by more than 15 points after being favored by more than 15. We'll take the Nuggets to bounce back off that embarrassing defeat, as they're 12-7 ATS on the road off an upset home loss. Even better: Charlotte's a wallet-busting 1-14 ATS at home off 4 point spread wins. Take the Nuggets to rebound on Thursday, and blow out Charlotte. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
03-05-20 |
Illinois State v. Drake -2.5 |
Top |
65-75 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Drake Bulldogs minus the points over Illinois State. The Redbirds are 10-20 this season, but one of their 10 victories was an upset win over Drake, in Normal, 12 days ago. We'll lay the points with Drake in this re-match, as winning teams have gone 95-58 ATS in the post-season vs. losing teams when playing with revenge from an upset road loss. Take Drake.
|
03-05-20 |
Boise State +2.5 v. UNLV |
Top |
67-61 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos + the points over UNLV. This first round game in the Mountain West Conference tournament will once again be played on UNLV's home court (for the 14th straight season). But that hasn't been a big advantage for the Runnin' Rebels over the years. And, lately, UNLV's gone 0-4-2 ATS their last six, and 4-10-2 ATS their last 16 Mountain West tournament games here at Thomas & Mack Center. Coincidentally, these two teams met eight days ago right here, and the Rebels won, 76-66. But we'll take Boise to avenge that defeat, as it's 6-1 ATS its last seven when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. And it's 27-16 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 9-3 ATS as an underdog. Take Boise + the points.
|
03-04-20 |
Pacers v. Bucks -11 |
Top |
100-119 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Indiana. We had our biggest NBA play of the season-to-date when these two teams last met. That game was in Indiana, and the Pacers blew out Milwaukee to snap a long, 6-game losing streak. For this game, however, it's a Bucks team which is off a loss, while Indiana's won four straight. Since Mike Budenholzer took over as head coach, the Bucks are an awesome 23-6 ATS in the regular season off a loss, including a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS vs. winning teams. Lay the points with Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
03-04-20 |
Thunder -7.5 v. Pistons |
Top |
114-107 |
Loss |
-116 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Detroit. The Thunder come into tonight's game off back to back losses. Of course, those were to possibly the two best teams in basketball -- the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Clippers -- so there's no great shame in losing them. Tonight, the Thunder will step down in class to play the Detroit Pistons, who have lost eight of their last nine games, including a 108-101 setback to the Thunder on February 7. Overall, the Thunder have won 13 of the last 17 meetings vs. Detroit. And they've also covered nine of 11 off back to back losses. The Pistons have covered their last two games -- both on the road -- but are an awful 6-18-1 ATS their last 25 off a point spread win, including 0-7 ATS at home. Take the Thunder to blow out Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
03-04-20 |
Tulsa v. Temple -2.5 |
Top |
61-51 |
Loss |
-108 |
14 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls minus the points over Tulsa. The Owls were upset by Tulsa on the road earlier this season. But they're back home tonight, in Philadelphia, for their final home game of the season. And it's a venue where the Owls have dominated. Indeed, over the last 15 seasons, Temple is 48-11 SU and 42-16-1 ATS at home when favored by six points or less (or PK). But that's not the best part. When Temple played a conference foe in this price range, then it has gone 31-6 SU/ATS at home its last 37. Since 2008, the Owls have gone 12-0 on "Senior Night" -- their final home game of the season, and have covered nine of those 12 games. Lay the points with the Owls. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
03-04-20 |
St. Joe's v. St Bonaventure -12 |
Top |
73-89 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies minus the points over St. Joseph's. The Hawks won a rare conference game their last time out, as they bested Fordham, 73-69. Unfortunately, the Hawks aren't likely to win tonight, as they're 2-15 SU/ATS their last 17 off a win. St. Bonaventure will play its final home game of the season tonight, and will attempt to snap a two-game losing streak. We'll lay the points with the Bonnies, as college teams have cashed 61% since 1990 as double-digit favorites in their final home game of the season, if they were off back to back upset defeats. Take St. Bonaventure minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
03-03-20 |
Raptors -4 v. Suns |
Top |
123-114 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Phoenix. After winning 17 of 18 games, the Raptors have hit a mini-speed bump. Toronto's lost its last three games, but two of those three games were vs. the 52-9 Milwaukee Bucks, and on the road to the 41-19 Nuggets. So, it's best not to view the Raptors' glass as half-empty. Tonight, the Raptors should snap their losing streak, as they'll be facing a Suns team which has gone 10-16 SU and 7-19 ATS its last 26. Even better: Phoenix is 3-14 SU and 6-10-1 ATS its last 17 as a home underdog, while the Raptors are an awesome 39-12-2 ATS off back to back losses when priced from -2.5 to -11 points. Finally, .700 (or better) road favorites, off 3+ losses, have cashed 64% over the last 30 years vs. losing teams. Lay the points with the Raptors. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
03-03-20 |
Arkansas-Little Rock v. Georgia State -3 |
Top |
70-89 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers minus the points over Arkansas Little Rock. The Panthers will play their final home game of the season tonight, and they'll look to snap a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak. Meanwhile, Arkansas Little Rock comes into tonight's game off 3 SU/ATS wins. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the hot Trojans, but consider that teams playing their final home game of the season have cashed 62% since 1990 if they were off 3 SU/ATS losses, and their opponent was off 3 SU/ATS wins. Take the Panthers.
|
03-03-20 |
Loyola Maryland +1.5 v. Lehigh |
Top |
75-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, in the opening round of the Patriot League Tournament, our selection is on the Loyola Maryland Greyhounds + the points over Lehigh. This is a rematch of Saturday's game, won by Lehigh, 74-71, at Loyola Maryland. And the Mountain Hawks also won the season's first meeting here, in Bethlehem. We'll take the Greyhounds this evening, as they're 37-17 ATS on the road when playing with double-revenge, while Lehigh's 0-4 ATS its last four off an upset road win. Take Loyola Maryland.
|
03-03-20 |
Presbyterian v. Charleston Southern -4.5 |
Top |
64-81 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, in the opening round of the Big South Tournament, our selection is on the Charleston Southern Buccaneers minus the points over Presbyterian. The Buccaneers come into this game on a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak. But they should be able to get back into the win column this evening, as they've owned the Blue Hose over the years. The Bucs have won 20 of the last 25 meetings, including 12-1 their last 13 meetings here, in Charleston. And the Blue Hose are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS their last 10 post-season games as an underdog. Finally, the Buccaneers fall into 86-59, 124-91, 43-17 and 112-60 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams in the post-season off SU losses. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
03-02-20 |
Rockets -10 v. Knicks |
Top |
123-125 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over the New York Knicks. New York defeated Chicago here on Saturday night, 125-115. But it had lost its six previous games (1-4-1 ATS). I love going against bad teams off victories, and we'll do that here, as we note that double-digit home underdogs, with a win percentage of .300 (or less), have covered just 24.0% over the last 30 years if they won at home in their previous game. That doesn't bode well for New York this evening. Even worse: the Knicks are a wallet-busting 0-20 SU and 6-13-1 ATS its last 20 games as a double-digit home underdog, and they're 4-15 ATS their last 19 at home vs. Houston. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
03-02-20 |
NC State v. Duke -12.5 |
Top |
69-88 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over North Carolina State. We played on the Wolfpack in the season's first meeting, 12 days ago, and were rewarded with an 88-66 blowout win over the Blue Devils. NC State was a 6-point home underdog in that game, so it covered by 28 points! For this game, though, we'll lay the double-digits with Duke, as revenge-minded College Basketball teams, off back to back SU losses, have covered 61% since 1990 as favorites of 5+ points, if they lost the first meeting by 15+ points. Additionally, the Blue Devils are a solid 19-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 12 points in the regular season off a SU loss. Take the Blue Devils. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
03-01-20 |
Wizards -5.5 v. Warriors |
Top |
124-110 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Golden State Warriors. Last night, Golden State pulled off a big upset when it went into Phoenix, and upset the Suns, 115-99, as an 11-point road underdog. That was just Golden State's 13th win of the season (against 47 losses), and faithful followers know I love playing against bad teams off wins. We won't make an exception here, and will play against the Warriors as a home underdog tonight. For technical support, consider that the Warriors are an awful 1-11-1 ATS when playing without rest off a straight-up win. Additionally, .375 (or worse) NBA home teams have covered just 37% over the last 30 years, if they were off exactly one win (on the road), and were playing without rest vs. a foe off a straight-up loss. Take the Wizards minus the points. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|
02-29-20 |
Idaho v. Southern Utah -12 |
Top |
55-87 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds minus the points over Idaho. Southern Utah will play its final home game of the season tonight, and will attempt to snap a season-worst 5-game losing streak. We'll lay the points with Southern Utah, as college teams have cashed 60% as double-digit favorites in their final home game of the season, if they were off back to back upset defeats. Take the Thunderbirds. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-29-20 |
Eastern Washington v. Northern Colorado -6 |
Top |
68-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Northern Colorado Bears minus the points over Eastern Washington. The Bears are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS their last nine games. This will be Northern Colorado's final home game of the year, and it falls into a "Last Home Game" system of mine which is 61-15 ATS. Even better: the Bears are 39-23-1 when not favored by more than 7 points, while Eastern Washington's an awful 1-6 ATS at Northern Colorado when priced as an underdog of +10 or less points (or PK). Take the Bears.
|
02-29-20 |
Chicago State +20.5 v. UMKC |
Top |
58-80 |
Loss |
-109 |
13 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Chicago State Cougars + the points over Missouri-KC. The Cougars have lost 18 straight games. But this long losing streak has worked to create point spread value. And non-winning NCAA teams (both SU and ATS), off 10+ losses, have cashed 69% on the road since 1990 vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take Chicago St. + the points.
|
02-29-20 |
San Diego State v. Nevada +6 |
Top |
83-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack + the points over San Diego State. Nevada's 12-2 at home this season, and has won its last six games, overall (4-2 ATS). We'll grab the points with Nevada, as home underdogs of +5 (or more) points that have won more than 10 home games on the season, with less than 3 home defeats, have gone 113-70 ATS since 1991. Take Nevada.
|
02-29-20 |
Arizona State v. USC -3 |
Top |
61-71 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Arizona State. The Trojans are red-hot "in Vegas," with 10 point spread wins in their last 13 games. We'll lay the points with USC, which plays this game with revenge from a 2-point loss in Tempe three weeks ago. And Pac-12 home favorites off a win have cashed 59% when playing with revenge from a road loss earlier in the season. Take USC.
|
02-29-20 |
George Washington v. VCU -12.5 |
Top |
51-75 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Commonwealth Rams minus the points over George Washington. The Rams come into this game off 5 SU/ATS losses. But I love VCU to snap its losing streak this afternoon, as double-digit favorites on 5-game (or worse) losing streaks (both SU and ATS) have cashed 63.3% since 2000. And VCU is 73.3% over the last 30 years off back to back upset losses. Take Virginia Commonwealth minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-29-20 |
Oklahoma v. West Virginia -8 |
Top |
73-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 4 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Oklahoma. The Sooners upset the Mountaineers, 69-59, in Norman earlier this month. We'll lay the points with Bob Huggins' men, as they've gone 29-13 ATS as a single-digit home favorite with playing with revenge from a double-digit defeat. Take West Virginia.
|
02-29-20 |
Air Force +10.5 v. Colorado State |
Top |
74-87 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Air Force + the points over Colorado State. Air Force defeated New Mexico on Wednesday, 60-58, while Colorado State lost, 66-60, at San Diego St. This is the second meeting this season between these two teams. The Falcons were blown out in the first meeting, 78-65, but I expect a much closer game this afternoon. For technical support, consider that Colorado State's covered just 21 of 54 vs. revenge-minded foes off a straight-up win. Take Air Force. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-29-20 |
Bowling Green v. Miami-OH +3 |
Top |
55-73 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks + the points over Bowling Green. The RedHawks upset Central Michigan here, in Oxford, on Thursday. And that was the 4th time in five games that Miami-Ohio covered the spread. Bowling Green, meanwhile, has been atrocious as a favorite, with just two ATS wins in their last 20 road games. Take Miami-Ohio + the points.
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Drexel Dragons + the points over College of Charleston. Drexel lost at home by 11 points to the Cougars earlier this season. But we'll take the Dragons this afternoon, as they've gone 17-4 ATS as an underdog of more than 6 points, when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. Take Drexel.
|
02-29-20 |
Seton Hall v. Marquette -1.5 |
Top |
88-79 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Marquette Golden Eagles minus the points over Seton Hall. Marquette blew out Georgetown, 93-72, here at home on Wednesday, and plays this game with revenge from a 14-point loss to the Pirates last month. We'll lay the points with the Golden Eagles, as they're 23-12-2 ATS as a revenge-minded home favorite vs. foes with a winning SU/ATS record. Take Marquette.
|
02-29-20 |
Penn State v. Iowa -4 |
Top |
68-77 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Penn State. The Nittany Lions won Round 1, 89-86, vs. the Hawkeyes back in January. But we'll take the Hawkeyes in the rematch here, in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes lost their last game, 78-70, at Michigan State. But Iowa is 5-0 ATS this season off a road loss, and it's also 10-0-2 ATS its last 12 at home. Finally, the Hawkeyes are a super 28-12 ATS when playing with revenge from a close loss (by less than 10 points) away from home earlier in the season. Take Iowa. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-28-20 |
Princeton v. Brown -1 |
Top |
71-49 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Brown Bears minus the points over Princeton. The Bears were upset in their previous game by Cornell, 63-45, as a 3-point road favorite. We'll lay the points with Brown this evening, as Ivy League schools have cashed 65.7% off a double-digit upset road loss since 1990, including 10-2-2 ATS the last 14. Take Brown. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-28-20 |
Quinnipiac +2.5 v. Fairfield |
Top |
60-58 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Quinnipiac Bobcats + the points over Fairfield. The Bobcats have not made many friends in Las Vegas this month, as they're 0-8 ATS in February, including back to back SU/ATS losses to Monmouth and Siena this week. But this losing streak has created significant point spread value this evening. We'll grab the points with the road underdog, as NCAA road dogs have gone 208-153 ATS in regular season conference games since 1990 off back to back SU/ATS losses, if they were on an 6-game (or worse) ATS losing streak. Additionally, the Stags are an awful 34-57-3 ATS as a single-digit favorite off a loss. Take Quinnipiac. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-27-20 |
Eastern Washington v. Southern Utah -2.5 |
Top |
69-51 |
Loss |
-106 |
17 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds minus the points over Eastern Washington. Southern Utah has dropped its last four games, but all four were on the road, where the Thunderbirds have gone 6-9 this season. At home, it's been a different story, as Southern Utah's 8-4 here, in Cedar City. These two teams met earlier this season in Cheney, Washington, and the Eagles won, 81-78, at home. But we'll lay the points with Southern Utah tonight, as revenge-minded favorites with a winning record, off back to back losses, have gone 263-188 ATS if they lost the season's previous meeting on the road. Even better: the Eagles come into this game off an 80-70 win over Northern Arizona. Unfortunately, they're a poor 9-24 ATS off a win by 7+ points, including 3-15 ATS away from home. Take Southern Utah minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-27-20 |
New Mexico State v. Grand Canyon +6.5 |
Top |
67-53 |
Loss |
-108 |
17 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Grand Canyon Antelopes + the points over New Mexico State. The Aggies have ripped off 13 straight WAC Conference wins to start the season. But they fall into a negative 13% system of mine which goes against certain teams that are undefeated in Conference play. Don't be surprised if the Antelopes hand New Mexico State its first WAC loss tonight, as the Aggies are a poor 18-31 ATS away from home off 3+ home games. Meanwhile, the Antelopes have cashed 67% off a road loss if they're matched up against a foe off a win. Take the home underdog Antelopes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-27-20 |
Cleveland State v. Wisc-Milwaukee -7 |
Top |
70-68 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers minus the points over Cleveland St. The Panthers lost to the Vikings by 17 points last month. And they also were upset by Detroit, 79-73, in their last game. Those two factors set up our play on the Panthers tonight, as Milwaukee's an awesome 23-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, provided they didn't cover the spread in their previous game, and had a win percentage of .363 (or better). Take the Panthers minus the points.
|
02-27-20 |
Towson +7.5 v. Hofstra |
Top |
76-65 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Towson Tigers + the points over Hofstra. The Pride are on an 8-game SU/ATS win streak. And there's certainly nothing wrong with that. But Towson's also playing very good basketball, as it's 11-3 its last 14 games, straight-up, and 10-3 ATS (with one non-lined game). The Tigers are a super 30-12 ATS their last 42 conference games as an underdog of more than 4 points away from home, off a conference win. And it's also 28-10 ATS away from home as a conference underdog of +16 or less points, if it lost the season's previous meeting. Meanwhile, for those worried about Hofstra's red-hot play, consider that College teams on 8-game SU/ATS win streaks are a soft 23-38 ATS. Finally, the Tigers fall into 106-43, 27-2, and 167-82 ATS systems of mine. Take Towson. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
|
02-27-20 |
Indiana v. Purdue -6 |
Top |
49-57 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Indiana. These two Hoosier State rivals met earlier this season in Bloomington, and the Boilers upset the Hoosiers, 74-62, as a 3-point road underdog. Unfortunately, Matt Painter's men have not won since, as they've lost their last four games, including a 71-63 upset loss here in West Lafayette, on Saturday. We'll lay the points with Purdue, as it's 29-18 ATS as a favorite off an upset Big 10 Conference loss, including 12-2 vs. foes off back to back wins. Take Purdue.
|
02-26-20 |
Celtics v. Jazz -4.5 |
Top |
114-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Boston. The Jazz were ripped, 131-111, by the Phoenix Suns, on Monday. And that 20-point home loss, as an 8.5-point favorite, was Utah's 2nd biggest home defeat as a favorite of more than 7 points, over the last 30 years. We'll take the Jazz to rebound tonight, as they've gone 31-12 ATS at home off a double-digit home upset loss. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-26-20 |
Maryland v. Minnesota +1 |
Top |
74-73 |
Push |
0 |
18 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers over Maryland. The Gophers snapped a 3-game losing streak when they went into Northwestern on Sunday, and blew out the Wildcats by 26 points. That victory moved Minnesota's Big 10 record to 7-9, while Maryland's conference record is 12-4 following its loss to Ohio State. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the underdog Terrapins, given its superior conference record. But consider that, at Conference Game #6 forward, underdogs with a .750 (or better) conference record have covered just 37% over the last 27 years (and 2-17 ATS the last six years) vs. foes with a losing conference record that were off a win in their previous game. Even better: the Gophers have covered 67% over the last 30 years as a home favorite (or PK) vs. conference foes with a winning SU/ATS record, including 9-1 ATS vs. foes off a SU loss. Take Minnesota.
|
02-26-20 |
Evansville +15 v. Northern Iowa |
Top |
64-84 |
Loss |
-113 |
16 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Evansville Purple Aces + the points over Northern Iowa. The Panthers are having a terrific season, as they are 23-5 SU and 17-8 ATS following their 64-52 win on Sunday vs. Southern Illinois. Unfortunately, the Panthers have covered just 25% as a home favorite over the past 25 seasons vs. teams with a losing SU/ATS record. Take Evansville + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-26-20 |
VCU -5 v. Massachusetts |
Top |
52-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the VCU Rams minus the points over Massachusetts. The Rams come into this game on a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak. But we'll lay the points tonight on the road vs. the Minutemen, as VCU has cashed 65.2% since 1990 off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. conference foes off a win (including a sensational 78.5% ATS as a favorite). Take VCU minus the points.
|
02-25-20 |
Pelicans +7.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
109-118 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Los Angeles. New Orleans has won 8 of 11, with its only three defeats to the Rockets, Bucks and Thunder -- all Playoff teams. And the Pelicans will look for their 3rd straight win tonight -- all on the road -- against a Lakers team also playing well, with five straight wins. We'll grab the points, as New Orleans is 14-3 ATS off back to back road ATS wins. And it also falls into a 207-130 ATS system which plays on certain revenge-minded teams off back to back SU/ATS wins. Take New Orleans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-25-20 |
Alabama v. Mississippi State -4 |
Top |
73-80 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Alabama. This is a huge revenge game for Mississippi State, which lost by 21 to the Crimson Tide last month. I love the Bulldogs tonight, as they also come into this game off an 87-75 upset loss to the Texas A&M Aggies. And SEC Conference teams are a solid 44-24 ATS when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) loss in the season's first meeting, if they also lost their previous game, straight-up, and their opponent was off a straight-up win. Moreover, Miss State is 47-27 ATS off a double-digit road loss, while Alabama is a dreadful 18-39 ATS as a road underdog of 7 or less points vs. foes off a point spread defeat. Take the Bulldogs minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-25-20 |
Bucks v. Raptors +1.5 |
Top |
108-97 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Milwaukee. The Raptors have been installed as a home underdog tonight, notwithstanding the fact that they've won 17 of their last 18 games (12-6 ATS), including a most-impressive 127-81 win over Indiana on Sunday. Even better: the Raptors are 34-22 ATS vs. the league's better teams (with win percentages greater than .625), while the Bucks have fared poorly as a favorite of 4 points or less (9-20 ATS). And, finally, the Raptors are an incredible 13-0 ATS their last 13 at home after not giving up more than 90 points in their previous game. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-25-20 |
Miami-OH v. Kent State -9 |
Top |
61-74 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Miami-Ohio. The RedHawks upset Kent in Oxford last month, 77-74. But we'll take the Golden Flashes in the re-match, as they're 31-1 straight-up, and 26-4-2 ATS when Pk'em or favored against a .585 (or worse) opponent, and playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. It's true that Miami is on a 3-game ATS win streak. Unfortunately, it's a wallet-busting 10-24 ATS off three ATS wins, including 0-8 ATS if its opponent was off a home loss. Take Kent State minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-25-20 |
Iowa v. Michigan State -8 |
Top |
70-78 |
Push |
0 |
5 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans minus the points over Iowa. These two teams are tied (along with three other teams) for 2nd place in the Big 10 Conference, with 10-6 records (Maryland leads with a 12-4 mark). Both teams come into this game off a win. The Spartans blew out Nebraska by 21 points last Thursday, while Iowa defeated Ohio State by nine on the same night. We'll lay the points with the Spartans tonight, as they've dominated the Hawkeyes here, in East Lansing, with a 20-1 record since 1994 (15-6 ATS). Even better: at home, Michigan State has compiled an incredible 64-23-4 ATS record when not favored by double-digits, if the Spartans were well-rested, and had at least the three previous days off. Lay the points with Michigan State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-25-20 |
TCU v. Iowa State -2.5 |
Top |
59-65 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over TCU. The Cyclones come into this game off back to back blowout losses to Kansas (91-71) and Texas Tech (87-57), while TCU is off an upset win over West Virginia. I love Iowa State to rebound from those defeats, as it plays this game with revenge from a two-point loss in Fort Worth last month. And college basketball favorites have cashed 67% since 1990 off back-to-back 20-point losses, if they played with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, and their opponent was off an upset win. Take Iowa State.
|
02-25-20 |
Kentucky v. Texas A&M +6.5 |
Top |
69-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over Kentucky. The Aggies are playing great basketball, as they come into this home game off three straight upset wins. We'll grab the points with Texas A&M, as it's 39-22 ATS its last 61 as a home underdog. And Kentucky is a poor 2-13 ATS off 3 straight wins. Take Texas A&M + the points.
|
02-25-20 |
Duke v. Wake Forest +11.5 |
Top |
101-113 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Duke. The Blue Devils thrashed Wake Forest, 90-59, in the season's first meeting. We'll take the home underdog tonight, as .390 (or better) revenge-minded, double-digit home dogs have cashed 63% since 1991 if they lost the season's first meeting by 25+ points. Take Wake Forest. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-24-20 |
Suns v. Jazz -7.5 |
Top |
131-111 |
Loss |
-115 |
17 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Phoenix. The Jazz come into this game off a double-digit, upset loss to Houston, on Saturday. But off that defeat, we'll look for Quin Snyder's men to rebound here, at home, on Monday. Indeed, Utah's 35-12 ATS if it was favored off a double-digit home loss, and its foe was not off a double-digit loss. Even better: the Jazz have won eight straight in this series (6-2 ATS), and 15 of 16 (10-5-1 ATS) over the last five seasons. Lay the points with Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-24-20 |
West Virginia -5 v. Texas |
Top |
57-67 |
Loss |
-115 |
15 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Texas. These two teams met earlier this year in Morgantown, and Bob Huggins' men blew out the Longhorns by 38 points. But I doubt that overconfidence will be an issue this evening. After all, West Virginia just lost to TCU, 67-60, in Fort Worth, on Saturday. And it had also blown out TCU earlier this season, in Morgantown, 81-49. Overall, the Mountaineers have now dropped four of their previous five games. Of course, two of those four losses were to Top 3-ranked Kansas and Baylor, so there's no shame in losing to each of those teams. West Virginia is a fantastic 39-18 ATS in competitive games with point spreads less than 10 points, if WVU is off a point spread defeat. And Texas is a poor 4-12 ATS off back to back wins, including 1-7 ATS at home. Take WVU minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-23-20 |
Celtics v. Lakers -6.5 |
Top |
112-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Boston. The Celtics embarrassed the Lakers, 139-107, at Boston, on January 20. But we'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Lakers this afternoon, as NBA favorites of 4+ points, with a win percentage greater than .706, have covered 72% in the Regular season since 1990, when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 24 points. Take the Lakers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-22-20 |
Rockets v. Jazz -2 |
Top |
120-110 |
Loss |
-109 |
14 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Houston. The Rockets had last night off following their 135-105 blowout of Golden State to kick off their post-All-Star Break campaign. The Jazz, on the other hand, were stunned last night by the Spurs, here in Salt Lake City. San Antonio won outright as a 9-point road underdog, 113-104. We'll take the Jazz to bounce back tonight, as Utah is 27-10 ATS as a home favorite off an upset loss by 9+ points, while Houston is 1-12 ATS on the road off a 30-point win, if their opponent is off an ATS defeat. Take Utah minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-22-20 |
The Citadel +15 v. Western Carolina |
Top |
84-96 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on The Citadel + the points over Western Carolina. The Bulldogs played very well in defeat when these two teams met in Charleston, back on January 4. Western Carolina won that road game, 86-82, but didn't cover the 7-point spread. We'll take the Bulldogs in the rematch as a double-digit underdog, as the Catamounts are an awful 13-29-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than six points. Take The Citadel.
|
02-22-20 |
California v. Washington -9 |
Top |
52-87 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over California. The Golden Bears snapped their 4-game losing streak with an upset win over Washington State on Wednesday, while Washington was upset by Stanford two nights ago. But off its upset road win, we'll fade California this evening, in Seattle, as the Bears are an awful 28% ATS over the last 30 years off an upset road win, if matched up against a conference foe off a SU loss. And Washington is 22-7 ATS at home off an upset loss, including 12-1 ATS when priced from -1.5 to -12 points. Take Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-22-20 |
Rhode Island v. Davidson -2.5 |
Top |
75-77 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Davidson Wildcats minus the points over Rhode Island. Davidson lost to the league's doormat, St. Joseph's, on Tuesday, so it will be looking to redeem itself this evening. Also, the Rams defeated the Wildcats by 11 points in the season's first meeting, in Kingston. But all of this sets up today's play, as Davidson is a fantastic 23-12 ATS when playing with revenge, including 9-1 ATS off a loss. Take the Wildcats. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-22-20 |
Wyoming v. Air Force -7.5 |
Top |
78-72 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Air Force minus the points over Wyoming. The Falcons enter this afternoon's game on a horrid 9-game point spread losing streak, and are now 9-18 ATS. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 13-12 ATS. The knee-jerk reaction might be to fade the ice cold Falcons. But consider that NCAA Teams on 9-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have covered 59.1% over the last 30 years vs. foe with a winning ATS record. Take Air Force minus the points.
|
02-22-20 |
Florida State v. NC State +2 |
Top |
67-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 4 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack + the points over Florida State. The Wolfpack have been installed as a home underdog this afternoon, and they're 14-6 ATS their last 20 as home dogs vs. foes off a win, including an upset victory over Duke in their most recent game. Additionally, revenge-minded ACC home underdogs have gone 179-131 ATS vs. conference foes off back to back conference wins. Take North Carolina State + the points.
|
02-22-20 |
Hofstra v. Delaware +1.5 |
Top |
78-62 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Delaware Blue Hens + the points over Hofstra. This is a great match-up between two teams that have already reached the 20-win mark. Delaware earned victory #20 with a 22-point win as a home underdog vs. Northeastern, on Thursday. And conference underdogs, off 20-point upset wins over conference foes, have cashed 165 of 291 since 1990. Take the Blue Hens.
|
02-22-20 |
William & Mary v. James Madison +3 |
Top |
78-74 |
Loss |
-103 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 4 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes + the points over William & Mary. The Dukes will play their 3rd straight home game today, after dropping their first two on this home stand. We'll grab the points with James Madison, as William & Mary's an awful 0-19 ATS away from home vs. conference foes with a win percentage between .255 and .450 that are off back-to-back ATS losses. Take James Madison + the points.
|
02-22-20 |
Tennessee State v. Morehead State +1 |
Top |
63-66 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Morehead St. Eagles + the points over Tennessee St. The Tigers were blown out, 83-62, at Eastern Kentucky, on Thursday. And that extended the Tigers ATS Record away from home to 4-16 ATS their last 20. This afternoon's game is also on the road, in Morehead. And it will also be Morehead State's final home game of the season. And we'll take the Eagles + the points, as they fall into a 59-33 ATS "last home game" system of mine, as well as a 76-45 ATS revenge angle. Take Morehead St.
|
02-22-20 |
Northern Kentucky v. Youngstown State +3 |
Top |
61-59 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Youngstown State Penguins + the points over Northern Kentucky. The Penguins upset Wright State, 88-70, as a 5-point home underdog in their previous game. And that was Youngstown's eighth straight ATS win as a home underdog (and 15th of their last 18). Even better: the Penguins are now 20-7-1 ATS their last 28 as an underdog (regardless of the venue), including 6-1 ATS if they lost earlier in the season to their opponent. Take Youngstown St. + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-22-20 |
Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -6 |
Top |
55-64 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Ball St. Cardinals minus the points over Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have won and covered their last three games, including a 21-point blowout of Kent St., as a 2.5-point underdog. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they've covered just 51 of 127 games off back to back wins, and are also 7-26 ATS their last 33 off back to back wins, when priced from +3.5 to +6.5 points. Take the Cardinals.
|
02-22-20 |
Missouri v. Arkansas -6.5 |
Top |
68-78 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Missouri. The Razorbacks lost two weeks ago to Missouri, in Columbia, 83-79. And they've lost five straight, overall, coming into this game. But Arkansas has always played MUCH BETTER at home than on the road. Indeed, the Razorbacks are an awful 115-173 ATS their last 288 on the road. But they're also a super 62-35-2 ATS at home off a road loss. Take Arkansas minus the points.
|
02-22-20 |
Kansas +2 v. Baylor |
Top |
64-61 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over Baylor. The Jayhawks will be out for revenge this afternoon, as they lost at home to Baylor by 12 points last month. We'll grab the points with Kansas, as it's covered 78% over the last 30 years when playing on the road with revenge from a home defeat. Meanwhile, Baylor's covered just 12 of 35 home games vs. revenge-minded foes that sought revenge from a home defeat earlier in the season. Take Kansas + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
02-22-20 |
Tennessee v. Auburn -6 |
Top |
66-73 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Tennessee. The 13th-ranked Tigers look to rebound off their two losses to Missouri and Georgia. But those were road games; today's game is at home. And the Tigers are a solid 75% ATS since 2002 in SEC Conference games off back to back SEC road losses. Take Auburn.
|
02-21-20 |
Green Bay v. Detroit +1 |
Top |
84-67 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Titans minus the points over Wisconsin Green Bay. The Titans are on a 5-game losing streak (1-4 ATS), including back to back upset losses here, at home, to Cleveland State and Youngstown State. But off those two upsets, we'll step in and take Detroit as a small, 1-point favorite, as it's covered 63% over the last 18 years as a favorite in conference games off an upset loss. And it's covered 61.1% at home off back to back SU/ATS losses when playing with revenge. Take Detroit.
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02-21-20 |
Brown v. Columbia +1.5 |
Top |
72-66 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Columbia Lions + the points over Brown. The Lions enter tonight's game on a 7-game losing streak (3-4 ATS), including a 72-66 defeat at Brown back on February 1. But the good news for Lions' fans is that they're 50-32 ATS vs. Ivy League foes if the Lions were off back to back losses, including 39-19 ATS when playing with revenge. Take Columbia.
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02-21-20 |
Buffalo v. Kent State -3 |
Top |
104-98 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Buffalo. Kent State was blown out by 21 points, as a 2.5-point road favorite, by Eastern Michigan, on Tuesday, which was Kent's worst game (ATS) this season. The culprit was Kent's shooting percentage (29.1%), which was the lowest percentage (by far) it shot this season. But immediately before this game, Kent had its second-best shooting performance of the season (53.1%) in a 15-point blowout win vs. Ohio. So, it's best to just chalk up Tuesday's debacle to "variance." We'll look for Kent State to bounce back this evening, as it falls into 48-14 and 37-7 ATS angles of mine which play on certain teams off loss vs. foes off wins. Take Kent State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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02-20-20 |
Belmont v. Morehead State +12 |
Top |
80-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Morehead St. Eagles + the points over Belmont. The Bruins have won and covered each of their last five games, while the Eagles are off back to back SU/ATS losses. The knee-jerk reaction, then, might be to lay the points with red-hot Belmont, which already defeated Morehead St. by 18 points. But be careful. Indeed, since 1990, double-digit favorites have covered just 38%, if they were off back to back SU/ATS wins, and their opponent was a revenge-minded, losing team off back to back SU/ATS losses. And, along the same lines, Belmont has only covered 36% since 1990 vs. revenge-minded foes off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take Morehead St. + the points. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
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02-19-20 |
Tulsa v. Houston -10 |
Top |
43-76 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Tulsa. I expect the 22nd-ranked Cougars to be in an ornery mood tonight. They lost in overtime at SMU, 73-72, on Saturday (which was their 2nd straight point spread loss). And they also will play this game with revenge from a 63-61 loss at Tulsa -- a game in which Houston went the final 5:32 without a field goal! But the Cougars had won the previous five games (4-1 ATS) in this series prior to that loss. And Houston's an awesome 43-23-4 ATS as a favorite (or PK) when playing with revenge against a conference foe, including 25-9-4 ATS if the Cougars owned a better conference record. Finally, the Cougars are 8-1 ATS off back to back ATS defeats. Lay the points with Kelvin Sampson's men. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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02-18-20 |
Oklahoma State v. West Virginia -10.5 |
Top |
47-65 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Oklahoma State. Tonight, the Mountaineers will welcome the Cowboys to Morgantown. And Okie State has not been a good traveler, as it's 52-75 ATS as a road underdog of +4 or more points. The Mountaineers are on a rare 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, while the Cowboys are off back to back upset wins. But WVU is a super 9-3 ATS its last 12, and 21-13 ATS its last 34, off 3 straight point spread defeats. And Oklahoma State is a poor 43-64 ATS off a home win vs. a conference foe. Take the Mountaineers minus the points. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.
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02-12-20 |
Bucks v. Pacers +2 |
Top |
111-118 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Milwaukee. The Bucks have won five straight, and own the league's best record, at 46-7, while Indiana has lost its last six in a row. But there are several reasons why I love the Pacers to get back into the win column tonight. The most obvious, of course, is that Milwaukee will play tonight's game without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who will be at home with his family following the birth of his son, Liam, on Monday. There's no doubt the Bucks are still a dangerous team without Antetokounmpo, but the fact remains that Indiana has outscored Milwaukee in their two games this season when he wasn't on the court, but was outscored by 47 points when he was on the court. And that leads us to our second reason: the Pacers are 139-76 ATS when rested, and playing with revenge, if they were off a loss, and their opponent was off a win. Finally, Milwaukee has covered just 11 of 38 off 3+ wins, if their opponent was rested, and off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take Indiana + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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02-10-20 |
Heat -6 v. Warriors |
Top |
113-101 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat over the Golden State Warriors. The Heat lost for the 3rd straight time (both SU and ATS) last night when they fell, 115-109, at Portland. They'll play the 4th game on their 6-game road trip tonight, in Oakland. And they'll no doubt be happy to face a Warriors squad they blew out by 17 in Miami earlier this season. And the Warriors have been awful this season vs. winning teams, as they're 1-21 straight-up vs. foes with a winning record (and 2-8 ATS vs. winning foes when not getting more than 11 points). Meanwhile, Erik Spoelstra's men are 42-17-2 ATS when they were on a 3-game ATS losing streak, including 11-0 ATS in this situation since Nov. 3, 2017. Lay the points with Miami. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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02-09-20 |
Clippers -7.5 v. Cavs |
Top |
133-92 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Cleveland. Doc Rivers certainly wasn't happy with his team's effort last night. L.A. was favored by as many as 10 points, but lost outright by 27 points to a Timberwolves team which hadn't won in almost a month. Tonight, the Clippers will have a great opportunity to redeem themselves, as they'll face a Cavaliers team which they beat by 25 points less than four weeks ago. I expect another blowout, as .682 (or better) NBA clubs have bounced back to cover the spread 75% of the time in the regular season since 1990 off horrible losses, in which they failed to cover by 35+ points. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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02-08-20 |
Morehead State v. Eastern Illinois -7 |
Top |
65-71 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Illinois Panthers minus the points over Morehead St. The Eagles won the first meeting in Morehead, 69-66, back on January 11. And they enter this afternoon's game on a 3-Game SU/ATS win streak after defeating SIU-Edwardsville, 58-49, on Thursday. We'll lay the points with Eastern Illinois, as it's covered 67% since 2001 as a favorite vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins. Even better: College Basketball home favorites of more than 6 points, on a 3-game losing streak, have covered 63% over the last 30 years, if playing with revenge from a road loss earlier in the season, and their foe was on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak. Take the Panthers. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
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02-05-20 |
Nuggets v. Jazz -7 |
Top |
98-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Denver. These Northwest division rivals met last week, and the Nuggets upset Utah, 106-100, as a 2.5-point home underdog. In that game, Utah was unrested, as it played at San Antonio the night before, while Denver was rested. The tables are turned for this game, as Utah has not played since Saturday, while Denver hosted Portland last night. We'll lay the lumber with Utah, as the Jazz are 104-71 ATS when rested, and matched-up against an unrested foe off a win. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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02-05-20 |
Pacers +6 v. Raptors |
Top |
118-119 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Toronto. The Raptors have won 11 straight games. But 9 of the 11 wins were against teams that won't be going to the Playoffs. Their only two impressive wins in this stretch were against the OKC Thunder and Philadelphia 76ers. Tonight, the Raptors will play the first of back-to-back games against the Pacers, with the re-match on Friday in Indianapolis. We'll grab the points with the Pacers, who come into this game off back to back home upset losses to New York and Dallas. And Indiana is a super 69% on the road since 1990 off back to back upset losses when playing a foe off a SU/ATS win. Take Indiana.
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02-05-20 |
Suns -2.5 v. Pistons |
Top |
108-116 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Detroit Pistons. The Suns have dropped three straight games (both SU and ATS). But those three games were all against foes with a better W/L record. Tonight, the Suns will get a relative breather when they face the 18-34 Pistons. Phoenix is a super 59-37-3 ATS when favored on the road vs. a foe with a worse W/L record, including 21-6-2 ATS if the Suns are off a SU/ATS loss, while Detroit is 5-14 ATS as a home dog vs. a foe with a better W/L record. Phoenix also falls into 144-84 and 100-54 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off back to back losses. Take the Suns.
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02-03-20 |
Baylor v. Kansas State +7.5 |
Top |
73-67 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 9 pm, on ESPN2-TV, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over the Baylor Bears. Baylor's 19-1, and ranked #1 in the country, while K-State is 9-12 on the season. But the Wildcats have covered their last three games, and now fall into an 86-48-8 ATS 'momentum' system of mine. What we want to do is play on any home underdog off 3 ATS wins, with a strong home court (that has won at least 32 of its previous 40 home games), if it was playing an opponent off a SU win. Take Kansas State + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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02-02-20 |
Nuggets v. Pistons +3 |
Top |
123-128 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Denver. The Nuggets earned an impressive, 127-115, win at Milwaukee on Friday to snap the Bucks' 9-game win streak. That was Denver's 2nd straight upset win (it also upset Utah on Thursday). But off those two big wins, we will fade the Nuggets in Detroit this afternoon. The Nuggets are a horrible 29-55 ATS on the road off a point spread win, including 5-23 ATS as a favorite. And NBA teams have covered just 35.5% since 1993 off a double-digit upset win over a .740 (or better) foe, if they were a double-digit underdog in that upset win. Take Detroit + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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02-01-20 |
SE Missouri State +6 v. Eastern Kentucky |
Top |
57-70 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 4 pm, our selection is on the SE Missouri State Redhawks + the points over Eastern Kentucky. The Colonels are on a 4-game win streak. But three of those four wins were on the road. Now, they're back home where they've NOT performed well over the years. Indeed, Eastern Kentucky is an awful 44-70-1 ATS here at home in Richmond, including 10-29 ATS as a favorite of more than 5 points off a win. Even worse: the Colonels come into this game off a 99-86 victory over Tennessee-Martin. But they're 2-14-1 ATS off a double-digit win, including 0-8-1 ATS vs. foes off a loss. Take the Redhawks + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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01-30-20 |
Appalachian State +2 v. Arkansas State |
Top |
71-64 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers + the points over Arkansas St. The Red Wolves are on a 5-game ATS win streak, including outright upset wins in each of their last three games. Unfortunately, teams (like Arkansas State) off five straight ATS wins and 3 straight upset wins have covered just 42 of 103 games since 1990. Even worse: the Red Wolves are 0-5 ATS as a favorite vs. Appalachian St, while the Mountaineers are a solid 37-24 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Finally, Appalachian State falls into several of my favorite NCAA systems, with records of 165-82, 125-65 and 144-67 ATS since 1990. Grab the points with the Mountaineers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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01-29-20 |
West Virginia v. Texas Tech -2 |
Top |
81-89 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over West Virginia. The Red Raiders play tonight's game with revenge from a 66-54 loss in Morgantown on January 11. And West Virginia has gone 3-1 SU/ATS since that game, including back-to-back SU/ATS home wins over Texas and Missouri last week. Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, tonight's game is away from home. And the Mountaineers have covered just 14 of 46 games away from home, if they were off back-to-back ATS wins. Lay the points with Texas Tech. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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01-29-20 |
Chattanooga v. Samford +3 |
Top |
92-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Samford Bulldogs + the points over Chattanooga. This is a big revenge game for Samford, which was handed its worst loss of the season by the Moccasins, 105-67, earlier this month. We'll grab the points with the home underdog, as Chattanooga's a disastrous 6-27-1 ATS when favored (or PK) over a revenge-minded opponent which it defeated by more than 10 points in the previous meeting. Take Samford + the points.
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01-29-20 |
Vanderbilt +21 v. Kentucky |
Top |
62-71 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores plus the points over Kentucky. Vanderbilt's on a seven-game losing streak (including 0-5 ATS its last five). That's the bad news. The good news -- at least for tonight's game -- is that double-digit SEC Conference underdogs, off 4 ATS defeats, are 30-12 ATS vs. conference foes not off 4 ATS losses. Vanderbilt also falls into 119-54, 417-228 and 38-10 ATS systems of mine. Take the Commodores + the points.
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01-28-20 |
Richmond v. VCU -8.5 |
Top |
68-87 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Commonwealth Rams minus the points over Richmond. These two rivals are located less than 6 miles apart in the city of Richmond. And the Spiders have not had much success vs. the Rams, including 8-18 ATS when playing away from their home gym. This season, both of these teams have identical 15-5 records, and 5-2 Atlantic 10 Conference records. The Rams did get off to an AWFUL start "in Vegas" this season, as they opened with a 4-13 ATS record. But they're 3-0 SU/ATS since that horrid start, including an 11-point road win at La Salle on Saturday. I look for VCU's resurgence to continue this evening, as VCU is a super 29-15 ATS in conference games as a favorite off back to back wins. And it also falls into a 338-216 ATS "momentum" system of mine which plays on certain favorites of more than 4 points off back-to-back wins. Take the Rams to blow out Richmond. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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01-26-20 |
Evansville +13 v. Valparaiso |
Top |
65-67 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Evansville Purple Aces + the points over Valparaiso. The Aces have lost their last 7 games -- both SU and ATS, including a 73-50 defeat at home to Drake, on Wednesday (and a narrow, 2-point loss to Valparaiso on Jan. 4). But this long SU/ATS losing streak has created great point spread value for this game, and has triggered several great systems of mine, with records of 164-90, 118-54, 416-228, 157-76 and 523-381 ATS since 1990. Additionally, Missouri Valley Conference teams are a solid 103-71 ATS as double-digit road underdogs, if they lost the season's earlier meeting. And Evansville is 7-1 ATS vs. conference foes, if the Aces lost by 20+ points at home in their previous game. Take the Aces + the points.
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