Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-23-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks -7 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. The Seahawks may not own the same pass rush they had a season ago, but they're still 3rd against the pass, 7th in defending the run, and rank 3rd in the league in total yards allowed per game. And while they have lost four games through their first 10, all four of the losses could have ended in the win column with a handful of plays going the other way. Even in last week's loss to KC, the Seahawks gained 25 first downs to 20 for the Chiefs and held the ball for 35 minutes, picking up about 5 yards per play. They simply failed to punch it in from the 1-yard line, the difference in the game. Seattle has certainly had their share of misfortune. Meanwhile, Arizona has been the luckiest team in the NFL, or at least that's what the Pythagorean tells us. I believe the "Good Luck" ends on Sunday, at least for one week. Arizona beat Detroit last weekend, despite gaining just 205 yards over the final 51 minutes of game time. The Cardinals can't run and the defense can't stop the pass. Both problems will surface against a hungry Seattle team that can't afford to slip to 6-5. You can bet Pete Carroll's crew will take their chances on defense against a QB (Drew Stanton) who's just a 53.6% passer on the season. We should note that NFL home teams are on a 33-7 ATS run if they're laying between 3 1/2 and 10 points, hold teams to 70-95 yards rushing per game, and are facing a weak rushing offense, one that runs for that same amount, 70-95 yards per game. And finally, Seattle is 8-0, 100% ATS as home chalk of 7 or less over the last three seasons, winning by an average score of 31-13. I'm laying the points with the Seahawks, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-16-14 | New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 42-20 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Colts on Sunday night. We played against the New England Patriots and cashed when they lost 41-14 in Kansas City to close out September. Of course, the non-betting sports media immediately said that the end was here for the Patriots and Tom Brady was done. Ignoring non-betting media as we normally do, we backed the Patriots in their very next game and we won when New England crushed Cincinnati. But that win, along with three more against Buffalo, the Jets, and the Bears, don't look that special any longer. Yes, they did punish Denver, no doubt about that. But this one is on the road and and Indy will be in a much better spot than were the Broncos. They're home off a bye (6-1 ATS following a bye week) and have Jacksonville up next. The Colts' own the NFL's #1 ranked offense in total yards, passing yards, and scoring, and while they take a hit about their running game, (again from the non-betting media), the Colts ground game actually ranks 14th in the league. It's going to be the toughest test of the season for New England's middle-of-the-pack defense. The Pats have just two road games under their belt against teams who are currently at least one game over .500, and they didn't fare well. They allowed a combined 74 points to Miami & Kansas City, losing by 13 points and 27 points. Meanwhile, Indy has held their last three guests to a grand total of 30 points, combined. The Colts offense is the better unit in this one and their defense, in this situation, is also in a better spot than the Patriots' defense. And finally, while the Pats have covered just 4 of their last 15 road games, the Colts are on an 18-5 ATS run at home. I'm betting the Colts will continue their strong run at home with a win by margin. I'm laying the points with Indianapolis, my Sunday Smackdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Philadelphia Eagles -7 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Eagles on Monday night. Dallas kept the pressure on with their 7th win of the season when they whipped Jacksonville on Sunday. I expect Philadelphia to answer with a win of their own. The Eagles will start Mark Sanchez in place of the injured Nick Foles and we have no problem backing the former NY Jet. Sanchez, for most of his time in New York, operated without a top-notch receiving corps, without top-notch skill people in general, and with lackluster leadership from the sideline. He really likes playing for Chip Kelly and it was easy to see why as soon as Sanchez stepped on the field when Foles was injured. Kelly immediately called a deep route to be run by Jeremy Maclin and Sanchez hit #18 downfield for a 52-yard pass play. Sanchez went on to complete 15-of-22 passes with 2 TDs & 2 INTs. Maclin raved about his new QB, simply stating, "Mark can play, man." Maclin has been on-fire of late and LeSean McCoy has been at his best over the last four games. I expect the holes to be even bigger with the return tonight of Pro Bowl guard Evan Mathis. Philly will miss LB DeMeco Ryans (ACL) long-term, but I don't believe he'll be missed against the anemic Carolina offense. The Panthers are off a 28-10 loss to New Orleans, while the Eagles are off the 31-21 win over Houston. Home favorites of 3 1/2 to 10 points are 40-14 ATS if they scored 30 or more points in their most recent game and the visitor is off a double-digit loss. And the Eagles are on a 28-14 ATS run in the second half of the season when facing weak defenses, those that allow at least 5.65 yards per play. I'm laying the points with the Eagles, my Monday Night Blockbuster. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-09-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Extra time off means we expect to see Calvin Johnson on the field for the Lions in this one. Recovering from injury helped integrate Golden Tate into the game plan, making him worth even more to this team moving forward. Tate has 305 yards receiving in the Lions' last two games, combined. Reggie Bush also expects to play and whether he's getting the carries or not, the running game will be more dangerous, helped out by receivers Johnson & Tate keeping defenses honest. Meanwhile, the Lions' defense has been a virtual brick wall in 2014. DC Teryl Austin has his troops playing extremely well, ranked #1 in total yards allowed per game; #2 in run defense; #5 in pass defense; and the Lions are the stingiest team on the scoreboard, allowing just 15.8 ppg. Yes, Miami is sky-high off of last week's 37-0 win over the Chargers, but while they played well, SDG turned the ball over four times. A crazy stat - Miami is 1-14 ATS after a game where they held a turnover margin of +4 or more. They're also just 1-4 ATS the last five times the Dolphins scored more than 30 points. Those stats show us that a lot went as well as possible last weekend for the Dolphins and "perfect storms" don't fall into your lap often in the NFL, let alone in back-to-back weeks. Detroit had a horrible first half last time out before storming back and beating Atlanta. The Lions trailed 21-0 at the half and we expect them to be focused at kickoff in this one. We should note that home teams scoring no more than 3 points in the first half of their previous game are 36-12 ATS against visitors who won by at least 21 points in their most recent game. Matchups and techs line-up on the Lions. I'm laying the points with Detroit, my Non-Conf Smackdown GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-06-14 | Cleveland Browns +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night. We may be on the unpopular side here with 65% of the tickets written on the favorite at the time of this post. So far this season we have known when to jump on and off both of these teams. They own similar defenses with both near the bottom of the league in total yards allowed per game and both in the bottom-third in run defense. Both teams will attempt to establish the running game early, however, we should note that Bengals' RB Giovanni Bernard (hip) is listed as doubtful at the time of this post. The Browns have looked bad in just one game this season and that was against Jacksonville. Cleveland was off a huge win over Pittsburgh, which followed a string of four games each decided by 3 or fewer points. And as we said on our Las Vegas ESPN radio show, we expected the Browns, finally favored to beat someone by margin, to falter against the Jags; it was certainly no shocker to us. With both of tonight's teams likely using a similar approach, I'd rather take the points with Brian Hoyer than lay a TD with Andy Dalton who brings a weak 8-6, TD-INT mark into the contest. Dalton has thrown five interceptions in his last four games and he has 7 INTs to go with 9 TDs in his last four games against the Browns, certainly not dominant numbers. Yes, we do know about Cincinnati's home success, but I feel their highly publicized results have been baked into tonight's line. The underdog has been the way to go in this series, going 11-2-1 ATS, and Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five. Finally, under HC Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 2-11 ATS at home against teams that average at least 7.5 yards per pass. They have allowed 26 ppg in those 13 home outings. I'm grabbing the points with the Browns, my Thursday night Blockbuster. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-02-14 | Baltimore Ravens -1 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 23-43 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
I'm backing the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. The Ravens thumped Pittsburgh 26-6 early in the season and they'll aim to make is 6-2 SU in their last eight meetings with their divisional rival. The Ravens' defense will face a Pittsburgh offense that has put up big numbers of late. We had the Steelers last weekend when Big Ben completed 40-of-49 passes for 522 yards and 6 TDs. But the Ravens have had the Steelers' number, holding Pittsburgh to an average of 15.4 ppg in their last 12 regular season meetings. No Jimmy Smith this week, but I expect the Baltimore defense to "man-up" and keep the Pittsburgh offense in-check again. I also expect big things from the Baltimore offense. The o-line has protected Joe Flacco quite well this season and the Pittsburgh defense has allowed 9.35 yards per pass attempt over their last three games. Flacco and his receivers ought to be champing at the bit. Baltimore is off a loss, dropping one to the Bengals last time out, but they're 22-5 SU in their last 27 following a loss, with the 22 wins coming by an average margin of 11 ppg. We should note that during this time of season (November) NFL road teams are on a 70-26 ATS run if they lost on the road the previous week. Meanwhile, teams (Pittsburgh) off a SU win as a home dog the previous week have covered just 9 of their last 40 against teams with a winning record. And finally, Baltimore has covered 12 of 16 under Harbaugh against teams that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry, out-scoring those 16 teams by an average of 29-18! The Ravens own a huge point-differential advantage over Pittsburgh and I'm betting they'll make is 6 wins in the last 8 meetings. I'm backing the Baltimore Ravens, my Smackdown on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-02-14 | Denver Broncos -3 v. New England Patriots | Top | 21-43 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Denver Broncos on Sunday. The Patriots have been on fire since the "end of the dynasty" loss to Kansas City, winning four straight games, while covering three. But three of those wins came against badly struggling football teams, while the fourth, the win over Cincinnati was a terrific spot on New England, and in fact, we backed the Patriots in that one. They'll now have to dial it up against the best team they will have faced so far this season. Denver comes to town as the top team in any credible power rating poll. The Broncos are healthy and have more weapons on offense this season than they did a year ago when they knocked-off the Patriots 26-16 in the playoffs. Peyton Manning lit-up the Patriots' defense, connecting on 32-of-43 passes for 400 yards and a pair of TDs. As a team, Denver rolled-up over 500 yards of offense in the win. I expect another big performance from Manning and his targets in this one. Meanwhile, the Patriots' offense will be hard-pressed to continue their fluid ways in this one. Denver brings in the league's top-ranked run defense and the 4th ranked defense overall in total yards allowed per game. While the Broncos average 32 ppg (#1 in the NFL) I don't believe the Pats will be able to "keep up" against the stingy Denver stop unit. We should note that Denver is the only team in the NFL to have two players with at least seven sacks on the season and Von Miller & DeMarcus Ware should make things tough on the New England passing game. Denver enters on a 20-7 ATS run after the first month of the season over the last three years, out-scoring their opponents by an average of 34-21. And they're on a 4-0 SU/ATS run, overall. I'm laying the points with the Broncos, my Tapout GOM on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-02-14 | NY Jets +10 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 10-24 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the NY Jets on Sunday. We're not here to tell you the NY Jets are a better football team than the KC Chiefs. But the "almighty point-spread" comes into play and bad teams have done very well in situations like the one we have in this contest. The Jets have lost seven straight games. Road teams that have lost at least seven straight games are 50-22 ATS after the first month of the season. In fact, these teams (in November) are 30-8 ATS if they're off at least six straight losses. The reasons for their ATS success is pretty obvious with their struggles inflating their point-spreads. Kansas City has strung together six straight impressive outings, winning four of those games with the only losses coming in hard-fought battles with Denver and San Francisco. It would not be a reach to say the Chiefs may be a little drained facing a team that's certainly easy to take for granted. And we also note that the Chiefs have been over-valued at home as it is, entering Sunday on a 2-6 ATS slide at Arrowhead Stadium. I'm taking the points with the NY Jets, my Road Warrior on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-27-14 | Washington Redskins +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Washington Redskins on Monday night. Dallas RB DeMarco Murray is off to a record-setting start in 2014. Tony Romo is staying away from critical errors. But the fantastic offensive line has been masking defensive issues. The Dallas defense is still one of the worst in the league when it comes to yards allowed per play (6.1) and yards rushing per attempt (approaching 5.0). They continue to dominate time of possession thanks to a front line that paves the way week-after-week. But I expect Washington to be able to play a little "keep-away" themselves tonight. No matter who is at QB, the Skins have Alfred Morris in the backfield and he has averaged over 120 yards rushing with 6 TDs in Washington's last four games against Dallas. Washington owns the NFL's 7th stingiest defense in total yards allowed per game, including 7th against the pass and 11th against the run. In fact, their yards per play numbers are better than the Cowboys', but Washington has not been able to stay away from turnovers. HC Jay Gruden has not named a starter at QB yet, but it's likely Colt McCoy will get the nod. McCoy replaced Kirk Cousins last week and completed 11-of-12 passes with 1 TD. Most importantly, he didn't commit any turnovers. Now, the running game ought to improve and when that happens, the passing game falls into place, also. The Skins enter this one on a 7-1 ATS run against the Cowboys. Meanwhile, Dallas has covered just 8 of their last 28 against teams with a losing record and 7 of 23 as home chalk under HC Jason Garrett, (1-1 TY). I'm grabbing the big points with Washington, my Monday Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-26-14 | Green Bay Packers v. New Orleans Saints -1 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
I'm laying the short points with the Saints on Sunday night. The Packers head into this one at 5-2, while the Saints have won just 2 of their first 6 games. However, these teams are just a few plays away from much different records. New Orleans lost by three in OT to Atlanta after leading by 13 points twice in the game. They also lost by two points at Cleveland when the Browns made a game-winning FG with 3-seconds left on the clock. And then there was last week's loss to Detroit. We had the Saints in that game, our top play of the week and covered the spread. But New Orleans held a 13-point lead with under 4 minutes to go in the game, before collapsing and losing, 24-23, covering the number. All three of the heartbreaking losses came on the road and this team is that close to owning a 5-1 record. New Orleans' track record at home under Sean Payton has been phenomenal. They're also 10-0 SU in their last 10 home games with Drew Brees at QB and the signal caller posted a rating of nearly 118 in those games. The Saints attack will take on a Green Bay defense that has injury issues in the secondary with Sam Shields listed as doubtful and safety Morgan Bennett listed as questionable. New Orleans has some bumps and bruises of their own, including at RB, but I expect Mark Ingram and Travaris Cadet to get the job done, picking up the slack against a Green Bay run defense that ranks 31st in the league, allowing 147.9 yards rushing per game. And with the secondary banged-up, Brees should be able to pick his spots if and when the DBs move up to help against the run or in coverage out of the backfield. We also expect no drop-off to Tim Lelito, who will start at center. Lelito has seen a decent amount of playing time and competed right to the wire for the starting job. The Saints' defense has under-performed at times this season, but face an over-valued offense. The Packers rank 25th in total yards, including 20th through the air, and 23rd on the ground. If not for a few key turnovers bouncing their way, the Packers could very well be entering this game at 3-4 rather than 5-2. Green Bay is on a 0-5 ATS slide against teams with a losing record, quite often over-valued. Meanwhile, the Saints are 11-2 ATS under Payton against teams that average at least 27 ppg. New Orleans averaged 35 ppg in those 13 contests, while allowing just 24. And in their last 25 home games off a road loss, the Saints have out-scored their opponents by an average of 31-19. Finally, the Saints are on a 16-5 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road record. I'm laying the points with the Saints, my Smackdown on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-26-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Kansas City Chiefs -7 | 7-34 | Win | 102 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the KC Chiefs as we back them for the second straight week and third time in their last four games (all covers thus far). The Rams pulled out all stops last weekend in their win over Seattle. Much credit to special teams coach John Fassel for designing the two trick plays and to HC Jeff Fisher for "signing-off" on them. But the rabbit is out of the hat and no team will be caught by surprise from this point on. KC has displayed great effort, desire, and game planning after the opening week ugly loss to Tennessee. The Chiefs have endured one of the toughest schedules in the NFL thus far and have faced some of the best yards per play defenses in the league. This week, the level of competition drops a notch or two and I believe Andy Reid will keep his team focused with the chance to move above .500 for the first time this season. Austin Davis has played well for the Rams as he has entrenched himself as the starting signal caller. But Davis will face a top-shelf pass rush on Sunday. The Chiefs are one of the best in the NFL at pressuring and getting to the QB. I expect the stout pass rush to ensnare the Rams' passing game and I won't be surprised if the young QB makes a couple of costly mistakes under the heat he's likely going to feel. Offensively, the Chiefs have turned the ball over just once in their last three games. They're on a 3-1 run in their last four and just six points away from a 4-game winning streak. Let's also not forget how well they played in a 24-17 loss in Denver in week-2. At 3-3 on the season, KC has three very winnable games in front of them starting this week, they just need to remain focused. Andy Reid is the man for that job and I believe the Chiefs will stay on target. The Rams won last week's game against Seattle, despite allowing 463 yards and getting out-gained by nearly 200 yards. I make that note because St. Louis is on a 0-6 ATS slide after allowing at least 350 yards. The Rams are also on a 4-14 ATS slide against teams that complete at least 64% of their passes, getting out-scored in those 18 games by an average of 34-14. I'm laying the points with the KC Chiefs, my Knockout on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-26-14 | Chicago Bears +7 v. New England Patriots | 23-51 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Chicago Bears on Sunday. We have been on target in games involving the New England Patriots as much as any team in the league in 2014. We went against them and cashed with KC in a blowout. We played on New England the very next week and cashed when they crushed the Bengals, and we went against the Pats last week and we covered again with the NY Jets. I believe, much like in two of those three games mentioned, the Patriots are a tad over-valued in this one. The public has heard nothing but negatives regarding Jay Cutler and his teammates this week. But this is a spot I expect Cutler and the receiving corps to step-up. The Bears have the tools to be one of the top passing teams in the league, they just have to find their chemistry. New England's overrated pass defense may be "just what the doctor ordered." The Patriots own the stingiest pass defense in the league on paper. But they have faced some of the worst passing games in the league. Check out the list: Miami (22nd); Minnesota (32nd); Oakland (26th); Kansas City (30th); NY Jets (30th). Only the Bengals & Bills rank in the top-20 in passing and they're just 16th and 19th, respectively. Chicago's passing game is top-10 in the NFL and the Bears will also be facing a run defense that ranks in the bottom-third in the league. The Bears normally bounce back well off an ugly offensive performance, entering week-8 on a 6-1 ATS run after gaining less than 250 yards in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Pats are on a 1-5 ATS slide against losing teams. I'm grabbing the points with the Bears, my Sunday Blockbuster. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-23-14 | San Diego Chargers +9 v. Denver Broncos | 21-35 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Chargers on Thursday night. San Diego's defense gave Denver's offense about as much trouble as any team did a year ago and I believe they'll do so again tonight. The Chargers covered two of the three matchups, coming just one point short of the spread sweep. This season, the Bolts are 3rd in the league defending the pass and Denver is obviously coming off a big win over the 49ers that included Peyton Manning's big night, becoming the all-time leader in passing TDs. But his offense doesn't run the ball well, ranked 25th in the league in that category and the Chargers' defense is 5th in the league, overall. SDG isn't the greatest at running the ball either, but Philip Rivers is having a big season and Denver's pass defense is allowing a mediocre 242.5 yards passing per contest. I'm betting the Chargers will hang the big number. They're a perfect 7-0 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record and they're 7-0-4 ATS in their last 11 games in Denver. I'm grabbing the points with the Chargers, my Thursday night Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-20-14 | Houston Texans +3.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 23-30 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Houston on Monday night. Changes are likely in store for the Pittsburgh Steelers in the next off-season. While Mike Tomlin should be back next season, barring a meltdown, their may be a different coordinator or two. Todd Haley has not been able to satisfy the Steeler masses since his arrival, taking over for the highly successful Bruce Arians who left to take the HC job in Arizona a couple years ago. The offense ranks 2nd to last in the league in the red-zone and Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 11 times in his last three games. While Houston's defense has given up some yardage, JJ Watt and company have to be champing at the bit to get their shots at Big Ben. Houston needs a win off back-to-back losses, while the Steelers are 3-3 SU against a rather soft slate of opponents, yet continue to be over-valued, as far as I'm concerned. Let's not forget that Pittsburgh has covered just 7 of their last 22 as a favorite of at least 3 points. I expect an upset tonight, but my play is to take the points. Houston, plus the points, my Monday night Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-19-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 v. San Diego Chargers | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the KC Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. I went against the Chargers last week and we cashed with the Raiders. SDG has played well this season, but I'm not sure they are quite as good as their record indicates. The Chargers' last four wins came against the Bills (with EJ Manuel), Jaguars, Jets, and Raiders. Not exactly a murderer's row of opposition. Today, the Chargers will face one of the toughest pass defenses they will see all season and I believe SDG will struggle. The "Bolts" don't run the ball well (25th) and if KC slows the aerial game, there's not a lot the Chargers will be able to do on a consistent basis. Meanwhile, KC can frustrate defenses with their own ground attack, which ranks 4th in the NFL. QB Alex Smith had a clunker in week-1 with the rest of his team, but since then, Smith has 7 TD passes and just 1 INT; he rarely makes a costly mistake. KC enters on a 9-3 ATS run on the road and Andy Reid-coached teams are 44-24 ATS as a road underdog. I'm grabbing the points with the Chiefs, my AFC West Blockbuster. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-19-14 | Seattle Seahawks -6 v. St. Louis Rams | 26-28 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with Seattle on Sunday. We saw a sluggish effort come back to haunt the defending champions last week and cost them a game against Dallas. We also saw there's no messing around with this team's incredible attitude. Percy Harvin felt the wrath by getting shipped off to the Jets. Many near the situation said Harvin did not get along with others in the locker-room and was a distraction. He isn't any longer. After what happened last week, I expect Pete Carroll to have his troops focused on getting back on track and in a big way. The Rams are normally "game" under HC Jeff Fisher, but they don't have the tools and in many key instances, the fundamentals just aren't in place. St. Louis ranks 24th in scoring and 30th in points allowed, giving up 30 ppg. Today, I suspect the Rams' 26th-ranked run defense is going to see a steady diet of "Beast Mode" out of the Seahawk backfield. Once Marshawn Lynch sets the tone Russell Wilson gets to take his shots and he has to be champing at the bit after last week's results. The Seahawks are 20-7 ATS against the NFC and they're on a 4-0, 100% ATS run off a SU loss. Meanwhile, the Rams have dropped four straight divisional games ATS and they have scored a grand total of 31 points in their last three games against the Seahawks. Seattle is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings and I'm backing them here. I'm laying the points with the Seahawks on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-19-14 | New Orleans Saints +2.5 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. The Lions have no offense and while the defense has posted strong numbers, some of the best in the league, when you take a look at the schedule, perspective falls into place. The Lions have faced the offenses of the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, and Minnesota Vikings. Those offenses are ranked 24th, 18th, 27th, 26th, 25th, and 28th, respectively. We could make an argument that the last three teams on the list don't currently own a true NFL-level starting QB. That's going to change on Sunday when the New Orleans Saints roll into Motor City. The Drew Brees-led offense ranks 2nd in the NFL in total yards per game and they have had a week off to fine tune things, lessening the impact of Jimmy Graham's status (doubtful). I also don't believe the Lions will be able to "keep up" when they have possession of the football. Detroit should have Reggie Bush back on the field this week, but more importantly, Calvin Johnson is doubtful. Even if "Megatron" plays, he's much less than 100% healthy. I expect a decent-sized win for the visiting Saints, despite the fact they're winless on the road this season. We should also point out that the losses to Cleveland and Dallas don't look as bad now as they did when they took place. But the Saints also know they have to bring complete focus and can't afford a loss following the bye. New Orleans enters on a 4-0 ATS run against Detroit and we'll back them here. I believe we have serious advantages on both sides of the football. I'm taking the points with the Saints, my NFL Smackdown GOY. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-16-14 | NY Jets +10 v. New England Patriots | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the NY Jets on Thursday night. Just a couple of weeks ago, almost every non-bettor was writing off the New England Patriots, following the beatdown they took at the hands of the KC Chiefs. We jumped on New England on these pages in their very next game and we were rewarded with a blowout win over Cincinnati. Now, two wins later, the Patriots are back to being over-valued. QB Tom Brady and the Pats' offense have utilized a game plan that's about as basic as it gets the last two games. But Brady is a little banged up (ankle) and his team is favored by 9 1/2 to 10 points. Yes, the Jets have been bad at times this season, and yes, they have lost by a wide margin the last two games, however, the 14-point loss to Denver was misleading thanks to Geno Smith's last-minute pick-6. There's no doubt this will be the biggest game of the season for Rex Ryan and the NY Jets. There's now doubt the Jets will "bring it" to try and get to Brady, who is said to be nursing that ankle. We should also note that RB Stevan Ridley (knee) and LB Jerod Mayo (knee) have both been lost for the season. And finally, NFL teams are 34-10 ATS if they have a win percentage of .250 or less and have lost their last five games by at least 42 points combined. The public normally abandons these teams, jump on the other side and pay a premium. Instead, we'll grab those points with the NY Jets, our Thursday night Blockbuster! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +7.5 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Oakland Raiders on Sunday afternoon. This is a solid situation for the Raiders and the Charger bandwagon couldn't be any more packed than it already is. SDG caught a break last weekend playing a NY Jets' team that was dealing with serious clubhouse trouble stemming from a few players being late to a team meeting the night before the game, including starting QB Geno Smith. But this is not an easy spot for SDG to have complete focus with Kansas City on deck and a road game in Denver afterwards. Oakland, meanwhile, sent Dennis Allen packing and named former Dolphins HC Tony Sporano as interim coach. Sporano has the backing of the troops and I expect a spirited effort and a refreshed approach on Sunday and knocking off one off the media-darlings would certainly heal some wounds. I do believe Oakland's defense can find success in this one. Let's not forget how dismal the SDG running game has been, ranking 27th in the league. With a week off to prepare following the London debacle, we believe the Oakland Raiders will give the Chargers all they can handle. NFL underdogs of 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 29-10 ATS run, provided they scored 14 of fewer points in each of their previous two games. Obviously, these teams are undervalued after playing poorly in front of the public eye. The Raiders are actually on an 8-3 ATS run off a spread loss and the underdog in this series is on a 9-1 ATS run. Solid spot for the home dog and I'm taking the points with Oakland, my Sunday Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-12-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Miami Dolphins +3.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Tough spot for the Packers who are off back-to-back divisional wins and three straight games within the NFC North, overall. After losing to Detroit, Green Bay knocked-off Chicago, despite getting out-gained 496-358. In fact, the Packers' final 17 points came on drives of 35, 35, and 11 yards. Then, after beating a mistake-prone Chicago team, the Pack caught Minnesota at the perfect time with Teddy Bridgewater injured and 3rd-string QB Christian Ponder forced to start behind center. Miami will now be the team in the prime spot and will face a Packer squad that hasn't been able to run (25th) or stop the run (32nd). Miami does both pretty well, especially on offense where they rank 4th in the league running the football. Dolphins' RB Knowshon Moreno is expected to be back and I believe the running game will be a difference maker even if he's on the sideline. Add in the scheduling advantage for Miami, off a bye week, while Green Bay is in the tough spot mentioned above and the Dolphins are in prime position to garner a home win. Miami enters on a 10-4 ATS run at home, including a 6-0 ATS record as a home underdog under HC Philbin. I'm grabbing the points with the Dolphins, my Blockbuster on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-12-14 | Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore couldn't get the offense in gear against the Colts last weekend, thanks in part to 3 turnovers. They finished the 20-13 loss out-gained by more than 100 yards, but that's been a buy sign under John Harbaugh. The Ravens usually turn a bad week around rather quickly, going 14-4 ATS after getting out-gained by at least 100 yards during the Harbaugh-era. They've averaged 25 ppg, while allowing just 15 ppg in those 18 contests. Baltimore will face a less than imposing Tampa Bay defense that ranks 30th in both yards passing allowed per game and total yards allowed per game. They're also just 18th against the run and allow a whopping 31.2 ppg, including 39 ppg the last three weeks. Yes, the Buccs offense has shown better under QB Mike Glennon than it did with Josh McCown behind center. But facing the Ravens' defense is a notch or two tougher than the Saints' unit they faced last week. And dig deeper than last week's final score and you'll see the Buccs only gained 314 yards...out-gained by 197 yards! Tampa Bay scored 10 points off of 19 and 40 yard drives and scored another TD off a pick-6. I suspect the Buccaneers will be unable to run the football and if that's the case, Glennon could be in for some trouble. Besides the 14-4 ATS spot mentioned above, Tampa Bay is just 13-31-1 ATS in their last 45 home games, including a 1-5-1 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record. I'm laying the points with the Ravens, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-12-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. The Steelers were dominating the Cleveland Browns in week-1, leading 27-3 at halftime. But the Browns gave us a preview of things to come, clawing their way back in the game, before Pittsburgh finally wrapped things up with a 30-27 win. The Steelers out-gained Cleveland 503-389 and averaged 7.5 yards per play. This time, I expect Pittsburgh to grab the lead and not let off the gas. We went against the Steelers a couple weeks ago and cashed when they blew a lead against Tampa Bay. Last week, the Steelers were able to sneak out a cover in a 17-9 win over Jacksonville. But again, it was a lackluster performance, looking a bit hungover from the ugly loss to the Buccaneers. Nothing like a game against a division rival to get your focus back and that's what we have in this one. The Steelers (3-2) can't afford to lose ground in the AFC North with Cincy at 3-1 and Baltimore at 3-2, and I'm betting they won't. The Browns defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially on the ground. There are just four NFL teams that allow at least 5 yards per carry and Cleveland is one. I expect Pittsburgh to send a steady diet of Le'Veon Bell right at the soft stop unit. When Bell plows the road, Big Ben can go to work. Roethlisberger has completed 69% of his passes this season with a 7:2 TD:INT ratio. The Steelers are 4th in the NFL in total yards per game, equally effective on the ground and through the air (8th in both). And unlike Cleveland, the Steelers play some defense. NFL teams (and in this case Pittsburgh) are 59-28 ATS when they hold teams to an average of 295-335 yards per game, provided their opponent owns bad defensive numbers, those allowing at least 370 yards per game. Pittsburgh is on a 9-4 ATS run, overall, and they're on a 5-1 ATS run on the road. No revenge here. I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers, my Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-09-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans +3 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -124 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Houston Texans on Thursday night. The Colts head into this one on a 3-0 SU/ATS run, all but erasing their 0-2 start. However, two of the three wins came against Jacksonville and Tennessee. We should also note that if you take the Jaguars off the schedule, the Colts are 7-10 SU (8-9 ATS) on the road during the Andrew Luck-era. Luck threw a pair of INTs last week in the win over Baltimore and will now face the league's best defense when it comes to takeaways. The Houston Texans have 12 takeaways and they have been stingy when it comes to points allowed, ranking 4th best in the NFL. Texans' QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has had his turnover issues of late, but he's been tremendous against the Colts, throwing 4 TD passes with no INTs in his last two home starts against them. We also expect to see Arian Foster back tonight. While he's not needed for this to be a play, if he does go, we'll gladly take him. Foster has also thrived against the Colts. There's no denying the Colts have owned the division of late, but they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight against teams with a winning home record. And NFL teams are on a 26-7 ATS run with a +3/-3 line range against teams that have held onto the football for at least 34 minutes of game time and accrued at least 24 first downs in each of their last two games (Indy). NFL teams in general, don't usually dominate the opposition for four, five, six weeks at a time. And finally, the home team in this series has covered seven of the last eight. I'm grabbing the points with the Texans, my Thursday night Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-06-14 | Seattle Seahawks -7 v. Washington Redskins | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night. Pete Carroll is a player's coach, no breaking news there. But if you need more evidence, Carroll gave his team the first week off during their bye week, stating he wants to get the guys as fresh as possible moving forward. Tonight, his defense, getting healthier by the week, will be a tough match for the Redskins' offense, especially Kirk Cousins. Washington is banged-up on the offensive line, yet understand they have to run the ball in order to hang with Seattle. I will be shocked if Cousins and his receiving corps can move the ball consistently through the air against the Seahawks' secondary. Seattle heads into this one on a 10-1 ATS run against teams that average at least 7 yards per pass attempt. Washington averages 123 yards rushing per game...middle of the pack in the NFL. The thing is, Seattle owns the 2nd best running game in the league, averaging 148 yards per contest. And NFL teams that average 125 to 150 yards rushing per game are 54-26 ATS against those that average 95 to 124 yards. A ground game still matters in the NFL. I expect the Seattle offense to be able to pull away from the Skins, a team allowing 27.2 ppg. Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 7-0 ATS when facing teams that allow at least 27 ppg. Seattle won those games by an average score of 32-15. Finally, they're on a 28-12 ATS run in their last 40 games, overall. I'm laying the points with the Seahawks, my Monday Night Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-05-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. New England Patriots | 17-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm backing the New England Patriots on Sunday night. It's virtually a season defining moment for New England and we aren't yet ready to give up on the Belichick-Brady combo. We went against the Pats on Monday night and cashed the easy winner on KC. But since that game went final, we have heard that New England is done...that Tom Brady is finally getting old. We have also heard that the Bengals are the front-runner to meet Denver in the AFC championship game. But I'm going against all the hype. Before Monday's game kicked-off, the Pats were a 3-point home favorite for tonight's contest. When the Chiefs blew them off the field, the Bengals became the chalk. October has been Marvin Lewis' wont, however. His Bengals have covered just 16 of 42 October games, struggling in the meat of the season. And let's not forget the Patriots are still on a 10-0 SU run at home, covering 7 of their last 9. While KC gashed them on the ground, the Pats' defense ranks 1st against the pass and 4th overall. And under Belichick, they're 17-6 ATS off a double-digit loss. Cincy brings an exciting offense to Boston, no doubt about it. But the Patriots have out-scored teams that average at least 375 yards per game, by an average of 27-22 the last 41 times (27-14 ATS). Again, I went against the Pats on Monday, but I'm back on them, my Sunday Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-05-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Denver Broncos on Sunday, my NFL Smackdown. Both teams are off bye weeks and Denver should enter this one as healthy as they have been all season. The Broncos expect to get LB Danny Trevathan back on the field after missing time with a leg injury. The defense will face the league's 23rd ranked offense and should hold Drew Stanton in-check. Give Arizona HC Bruce Arians a lot of credit for keeping this team on track with Carson Palmer sidelined, but Stanton will be forced to make plays against a defense like Denver's, rather than just staying away from trouble. Peyton Manning will have his full arsenal of weapons as healthy as they have been this season and after struggling, really since the third quarter of the season opener, I expect the offense to be in attack more from start to finish after the week off. The Broncos are 7-0 ATS the last three seasons after rushing for 75 yards or less, winning by an average score of 37-17. And they're on a 13-4 ATS run against defenses that allow at least 235 yards passing per game, out-scoring the 17 opponents by an average of 33-20. Arizona allows almost 245 yards passing per game. I'm laying the points with the Denver Broncos, my NFL Smackdown! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-05-14 | Buffalo Bills +7 v. Detroit Lions | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills, my Sunday Shocker. The Bills have decent offensive weaponry with the exception of the most important position, quarterback. But they made a potentially dramatic improvement this week by benching E.J. Manuel for Kyle Orton. The 10-year veteran may not be the answer long-term for the Bills, but he brings stability and management to the Buffalo offense. This isn't an easy spot for the Lions. They're off a pair of tough wins and have a date with division rival Minnesota up next. Also, while Calvin Johnson is supposed to play, he is not expected to be at 100% as of yet. And while the Lions' defense could have fooled E.J. Manuel, it'll be a little tougher disguising packages against Orton. The Bills enter on a 10-1 ATS run off a road loss over the last three seasons, normally under-valued coming in off a defeat. I believe that's the case again and I'm grabbing the points with the Bills, my Knockout Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-05-14 | Atlanta Falcons +4 v. NY Giants | 20-30 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. If there's a sandwich situation in the NFL, this would be the poster game for it. The NY Giants are the toast of the town right now as the offense has begun to figure out the new game plan brought in by OC Ben McAdoo. But after going from the laughing stock to a media favorite in the NFC East in a matter of three weeks, the Giants are now slightly over-valued in my opinion. They're also in a horrible scheduling situation. The Giants are off the win over NFC East rival Washington, and have divisional road games against Philadelphia and Dallas coming up the next two weeks. Atlanta certainly has the offense to make the Giants pay. The Falcons scored 93 points combined in wins over New Orleans and Tampa Bay, with their only losses coming against Cincinnati and Minnesota. We expected both losses, going against Atlanta in each defeat. But we're back on them this week and while I'm taking the points, I won't be shocked if they win outright. The Falcons have done a great job of bouncing back off of bad losses under HC Mike Smith, currently 14-3 ATS off a double digit defeat. Meanwhile, under HC Tom Coughlin, the Giants have covered just 6 of their last 25 at home after holding their previous opponent to 14 points or less. I'm grabbing the points with the Falcons, my Situational Beatdown on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-29-14 | New England Patriots v. Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the KC Chiefs on Monday night. After a poor performance in their season opener against Tennessee, Kansas City has played much better football the last two weeks and now return home for the first time since the loss to the Titans. KC has displayed ball control the last two weeks, garnering 51 first downs against Denver and Miami, combined, while the defense held those teams to 19 and 18, respectively. The Chiefs even out-gained Denver by 55 yards, but blew a couple of chances for a possible outright win in Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Last week, Andy Reid had his team in full focus and they whipped the Dolphins in Miami. The Chiefs, going back to last season, had their success when getting to the opposing QB. They're 4th in the NFL in sacks going into week-4 and LB's Tamba Hali & Justin Houston have been giving the opposition fits. New England has had their issues up front, allowing Tom Brady to be sacked 7 times in 3 games. The Patriot offense ranks 29th in total yards per game, second to last in passing, and 22nd on the ground. Until the offensive line issues are resolved, which included sending Logan Mankins packing and the retirement of offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia in the off-season, it's hard to imagine the Patriot offense doing a lot of damage. Kansas City expects to have Jamal Charles in uniform tonight, listed as probable. And the dink-and-dunk passing game should be able to move the ball in a consistent manner. Also, after throwing 3 INTs in week-1, QB Alex Smith has not thrown a single pick in his last two games. This marks just the second time KC has been a home underdog under HC Andy Reid and New England has not been too hot on the road, covering just 2 of their last 9. I'm grabbing the points with the Chiefs, my Monday night Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-28-14 | Tennessee Titans +8 v. Indianapolis Colts | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Titans on Sunday afternoon. Tennessee is off back-to-back losses, which gives us some added value in this one. Combine the losses with big-name QB Andrew Luck playing for the opponent and it explains why 70% of the ATS tickets have been written on the Colts at the time of this release. Obviously, the Colts have an advantage at QB. But break it down position-by-position, and the Titans hold their own. I'm not crazy about the Colts' offensive line blocking and I do believe the Titans can give them a boat load of problems for four quarters. I also believe that Tennessee's strong receiving corps will get their chances with matchup advantages over Indy's DBs. I'm taking the points with the Titans, my Dog Pound release on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-28-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Buccaneers on Sunday. Yes, we know how poorly this team has looked through the first three weeks of the season, but the line has now caught up. Tampa Bay got slaughtered last Thursday and it was the "only game in town," which means everyone saw it. Same goes for Pittsburgh's impressive win over Carolina, which was played in primetime last Sunday night. The Steelers played their best game of the season. Combine the two situations and we get some extra value on the team that looked lousy. That also explains why about 70% of the tickets written on this game (at the time of this release) have been on the favored Steelers. Buccs' QB Josh McCown injured his thumb last week and he's out. But that's of no concern with Mike Glennon stepping in. McCown was not playing well to start the season. Meanwhile, the Steelers are a little banged-up on the defensive side of the football and could be in for a little bit of a letdown after playing division rivals Cleveland & Baltimore the first two weeks, then taking on Carolina in primetime Sunday night action last week. We should note that the Steelers have covered just 5 of their last 19 against teams that get out-scored by at least 6 ppg. They're also 9-18 ATS under Mike Tomlin off a win by at least 14 points. It all plays into going against or at least staying away from teams that looked like "world beaters" the previous week. In this case, we'll go against them. I'm taking the points with the Buccaneers on Sunday, my Sunday Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-28-14 | Green Bay Packers -1.5 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
I'm laying the short points with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. After losing a tough opener to the Buffalo Bills, the Chicago Bears have won two straight, but have done so with a lot of good fortune at opportune times. The Bears have been out-gained by a combined 300 yards the last two weeks. The Bears averaged 4.2 yards per play in the win over SFO and 4.1 yards this past week in the win over the NY Jets. Meanwhile, the defense allowed 5.5 to the 49ers and 5.8 to the Jets. I believe the luck-factor catches up with the Bears on Sunday. This is a defining game for a Packers' team that expects to vie for the NFC title this season, but have yet to truly put four quarters together. We do give some credit where it's due, though, and the defense hasn't played badly. In fact, last week, Detroit had just one scoring drive, ending in a FG through the first three quarters of the game. And as we already mentioned, they'll face a Bears' offense that's not exactly lighting things up. There's little home field advantage for the Bears, who're 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games at Soldier Field, and the Packers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 visits to the Windy City. Chicago is also just 1-8 ATS in their last nine division contests. I'm backing the Green Bay Packers, my Smackdown release on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-21-14 | Denver Broncos +5.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Broncos on Sunday. This marks just the second time in 33 games that Denver has entered a game as an underdog, which shows us just how much folks remember their Super Bowl debacle. But this is a different team than the one that suffered a meltdown in the 43-8 loss. Denver has shored-up some of their defensive problems with big-name acquisitions in the off-season. And those new faces, including Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward in the secondary, make this defense much more formidable than the one Russell Wilson and company faced in February. They're also better up front on the offensive line which should give Peyton Manning more time to go through his progressions on Sunday. The Seahawks are off the loss last week in abnormally hot SDG, where the on-field temperature at times reached 120-degrees. But more importantly, the Chargers showed the blueprint to beating Seattle. Attack the entire field. Be aware of Richard Sherman, but don't be scared of him. I suspect Denver will spread the field in this one and make the Seahawks cover like they were forced to in week-2, rather than the frightened attack they faced in week-1 against Green Bay. Denver is a better team on both sides of the line of scrimmage than they were when these teams met in the Super Bowl and I expect a different outcome. Denver's covered four of their last five on the road and I'm grabbing the points with them in this one. I had Seattle in the Super Bowl, but I'm on Denver, plus the points, my Sunday KO. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-21-14 | Tennessee Titans +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 7-33 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Is anytime getting more praise right now than the Cincinnati Bengals? Cincy has become just about every media member's team to represent the AFC. We had the Bengals in week-1, but feel they're in for a tough outing in this one. Tennessee's 3-4 defense is getting to opposing QBs better than any other NFL team through two weeks of action. While Andy Dalton enjoyed picking-apart the Atlanta pass-rush last week, the blitz-package DC Ray Horton brings is a tougher nut to crack. The Titans' offense will face a Cincy defense with some issues this week. The Bengals' depth is banged-up on the defensive line and Vontaze Burfict, arguably the "QB" of the Cincy defense is not expected to play as of late Saturday night. And we should note the Bengals rank just 27th against the pass and 24th overall, getting out-gained in their week-1 win over Baltimore. Yes, this is a very good team, but I believe they're in a tough spot in week-3. Tennessee is on a 6-2-1 ATS road run and I'm grabbing the points with the Titans, my Dog Pound week-3 release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-21-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Buffalo Bills -2 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Buffalo Bills. San Diego is in a tough spot coming off the emotional and physical win over the defending Super Bowl champs last weekend. The win over Seattle following the hard-fought 18-17 heart-breaker to Arizona in week-1 MNF may have this team a little shy of peak level. It's tough to stay at your best after games like that. And in a game where you need a healthy 2-deep, the Chargers are a little banged-up in the trenches. They also don't have RB Ryan Mathews, who is out with a knee injury. While Buffalo is doing whatever it takes to win games through the first two weeks of the season, the fact is, they have been covering at home for a while, entering this one on an 8-2 ATS run at home. With the quick chemistry developed between EJ Manual, Sammy Watkins, and the Bills running game, I expect another solid game and win on Sunday. I'm laying the points with the Bills, my Main Event GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-15-14 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Eagles on Monday night. We got back-doored by the Colts in week-1. Denver was comfortably ahead of Indy 24-0 late in the first half and went to sleep, allowing the Colts back in the game and later to cut a 31-10 Denver lead to the final margin of 31-24. The Colts struggled badly when Peyton Manning went to his TEs, namely Julius Thomas, and I believe they're in trouble when Philly QB Nick Foles goes to Brent Celek and Zach Ertz. The Eagles should find even more success when Foles throws his quick play-action hitters over the middle to Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin. It's a staple to the fast-paced Eagle offense and it's extremely tough to defend, especially with the new focus by officials to penalize defenders who put their hands on receivers early in their routes. Indianapolis was unable to generate much of a pass-rush last week and with Robert Mathis not playing this season, that problem becomes even more of a concern against an offense like the Eagles. Philadelphia did suffer a couple of injuries up front on offense in week-1, but do get one lineman back this week. Speaking of banged-up offensive lines, the Colts have some issues up front themselves. They are also without a consistent running game, putting the onus of the offense on QB Andrew Luck. We'll hear a lot on Monday about the Colts attempting to avoid a 0-2 start. But we should note that home teams off a September loss have covered just 51 of the last 142 times when the line is in the -3/+3 range. The Eagles are 9-2 SU with Foles starting at QB and we'll back them on Monday. I'm taking the points with Philadelphia, my MNF Blockbuster. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-14-14 | Chicago Bears +7.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Bears on Sunday night. We got part-1 of what we wanted last Sunday when SFO jumped out to a big early lead and closed with a 28-17 spread-covering win in Dallas. We were hoping SFO would win impressively, then come back the very next week and play against a very public 49er team. When most spoke about the 49ers week-1 victory, few mentioned the offense simply took advantage of Dallas mistakes. Few stated that once again, just as they did in the preseason, SFO's offensive regulars did very little to separate themselves from their opponent. Dallas actually out-gained the 49ers by a 382-318 margin. Two of San Francisco's touchdowns came on drives of 2-plays for 15-yards and 1-play for 2-yards. The defense was mediocre, allowing 6.1 yards per play and 26 first downs. Dallas just couldn't hang onto the football, finishing with four turnovers to none for SFO. Heading into the 2014 season we felt that Chicago owned a high-powered, potentially high-scoring offense and we're not going to overreact to the first week's results. Yes, Chicago lost at home to the Buffalo Bills, but it was a bit misleading. The Bears gained 427 yards on 6.2 yards per play, but committed three costly turnovers, leading to 13 Buffalo points off of drives of 7, 14, and 37 yards. It's tough to beat anyone in the NFL when you allow opposing offenses to begin three drives on your own side of the 50, including two that began inside their own 15. Obviously, with the exception of the turnovers, the Bears' offense didn't disappoint. Matt Forte ran for nearly 5 yards per carry and he, along with Brandon Marshall (probable), Alshon Jeffrey (probable), and Martellus Bennett, combined for 29 receptions! I do believe Chicago will move the ball and will put points on the board against the somewhat short-handed SFO defense. I'm taking the points with the Bears, my NFL Blockbuster on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-14-14 | NY Jets v. Green Bay Packers -7.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Packers on Sunday. Green Bay was hanging around in their opening loss to Seattle until the offense suffered a couple of key injuries. One of those players, Eddie Lacy is expected to be back today, while Brian Bulaga is doubtful. But the Packers have had extra time to prepare with Bulaga on the sideline. They'll face a Jets' defense that was simply not tested by the horrible Raider offense a week ago. Look for Aaron Rodgers and company to do damage in this one. At the same time, Green Bay's pass rush certainly wasn't bad last week and will face a basic offensive game plan in this one, a huge drop down in level of competition. We also have the Pack in one of their better spots. Green Bay has been outstanding when laying 7 1/2 to 14 points at home under Mike McCarthy. Not only are they 18-8 ATS, but it's the average final score that puts it over the top for me. Green Bay has outscored those 26 opponents by an average of 33-16 and they're on an 8-1, 89% ATS run when laying more than seven points! I expect the Pack to keep the Jets' offense under wraps, while the New York secondary is not at full health. And let's not forget NY QB Geno Smith threw nearly three times more INTs on the road last season than he did TDs. The Packers' defense reacts well off of games where they allowed more than 350 yards, going 45-21-2 ATS the next time out. And they have averaged 29 ppg, while allowing just 18 ppg the 54 times they have been home chalk in the McCarthy era. I'm laying the points with the Packers on Sunday, my Non-Conf KO Game of the Month. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-14-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Diego Chargers +6 | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Chargers on Sunday. Seattle has had a few extra days off after beating Green Bay 36-16 on September 4. The Packers weren't playing badly, in fact, the game was a close one until a first half injury to offensive lineman Brian Bulaga hamstrung the Packers up front the rest of the game. Green Bay was unable to run their planned sets with much confidence with Bulaga sidelined and an injury at Center that forced them to start rookie Corey Linsley. Not to say the Pack are as good as Seattle, but they were at least in the game up until halftime. San Diego looked like the better team in their MNF contest with Arizona. Unfortunately for the Chargers, they blew an 11-point third quarter lead and although they had plenty of chances to escape Phoenix with a win, too many unforced errors on offense did them in. The SDG receiving corps looks strong and will keep the Seahawks busy on Sunday. Defensively, the Chargers can disrupt with their linebackers and I believe they'll slow Russell Wilson, Marhsawn Lynch, and the Seattle offense enough in this one to keep it close throughout. San Diego enters on a 4-0 ATS run as an underdog, they're 6-1 ATS in their last seven, overall, and the Bolts are on a 5-0-1 ATS September run. I'm grabbing the points with the Chargers, my Sunday Dog Pound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-11-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. Baltimore Ravens | 6-26 | Loss | -140 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday. The last time a game between these two rivals was decided by more than a FG was opening week 2011. But I expect Pittsburgh to change that with a win in Baltimore on Thursday night. The Steelers opened-up a 27-3 lead over Cleveland this past Sunday, but shut it down a little too early and had to fight and scrap to keep from suffering a disastrous loss. We should note that the Steeler defense played much better before Cleveland went virtually all no-huddle in the second half. The Ravens do not want to play a hurry-up brand of offense and won't when this one kicks off. Joe Flacco threw 62 passes last week, starting just 3-of-12. In fact, besides connecting on just 25% of his first 12 attempts, Flacco had 15 yards passing with 2 minutes to go in the second quarter. Defensively, the Ravens are susceptible and we saw Andy Dalton and the Bengal offense have little trouble moving the chains in the first half. Unfortunately, for Cincy, they couldn't "close the deal" and had to settle for 5 FGs, which ultimately, nearly cost them the game. Besides the healthy passing game led by Ben Roethlisberger, the Ravens' defense will also have to face what looks to be a very good ground game. Le'Veon Bell ran for over 100 yards with another 88 yards receiving. Markus Wheaton also showed his worth with a half-dozen receptions on Sunday, including great work on the game-winning drive. Yes, Baltimore is in desperate need of a win at home, but I don't believe they're going to get it at M&T Bank Stadium, where they're on a 0-4 ATS slide since last season. Former Ravens' safety Ed Reed said on Tuesday that he doesn't see anyone to lead Baltimore in the locker-room. He said this version has a different mindset than the Baltimore teams he played on. We believe Ed Reed. And we should note in the first month of the season, home teams off at least one loss have covered just 28 of the last 90, provided the line is in the -3/+3 range and the home team lost their final two games of the previous season. So, backing a team solely because they "need" a win in the firt month of the season has its pitfalls. This is one of them. We should also mention that Pittsburgh is on a 5-0 ATS run off a SU win and they're 3-0-1 ATS the last four against the Ravens and 5-1 ATS the last six times in Baltimore. I'm grabbing the points with Pittsburgh, my Thursday night Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-08-14 | San Diego Chargers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Chargers on Monday night. Arizona is quite short-handed on defense and I do expect Philip Rivers and company to take full advantage. When Rivers looks across the line he will no longer see a Cardinal defense that includes Karlos Dansby (Browns) or Daryl Washington (suspended). Nor will he see Darnell Dockett (knee...IR). Even if Arizona lines-up Patrick Peterson on Keenan Allen, Rivers will have several targets for the Arizona defense to deal with and that includes the possibility that Antonio Gates may not play (questionable). I'm not too crazy about Arizona's linebackers and I do believe the Charger offense can take advantage. The Chargers could be a little stronger on the defensive line, but in tonight's case, I do expect decent pressure to be applied to Carson Palmer. And let's not forget that RB Andre Ellington is doubtful with a foot injury. The Cards have not fared well on MNF, losing four straight ATS. Meanwhile, the Chargers finished last season on a 4-0 ATS run on the road. I'm grabbing the points with the Chargers, my Monday night Showdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-07-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Broncos on Sunday night. The Indianapolis Colts are off back-to-back 11-5 seasons, but are fraudulent in my opinion. We saw the Colts' six losses (includes playoff defeat) come mostly in ugly fashion in 2013, averaging just 16.3 ppg, while allowing 34.3 ppg. In fact, the Colts allowed 38 points or more in five of their final 10 games, including the postseason. I expect the defense to be another notch down with LB Robert Mathis sidelines by suspension. The offensive line is also a mess, with injuries and departures, especially on the interior. And the running game will have to be manned by Trent Richardson. The former first round draft pick of the Cleveland Browns struggled throughout 2014 and is starting thanks mostly to the loss of Donald Brown and the injury to Vick Ballard. Andrew Luck has saved his team's bacon many times through his first couple of NFL seasons, but not this time. I believe there are too many holes up front to be remedied by Luck. Denver will be missing a couple of WR's with Eric Decker moving on and the suspension to Wes Welker. But Peyton Manning makes a passing game click, no matter who's on the receiving end of the football. Also, I expect the defense to be better than the 2013 version. Denver went 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in Manning's first September as a Bronco, winning by an average score of 44.8 to 22.8. Playing against Indy falls into a 33-11 ATS spot tonight. You play against 3 1/2 to 10 point underdogs if they finished the previous season with a winning SU record. Meanwhile, Denver laid between 7 and 14 points 10 times during the 2013 regular season and went 8-2, 80% ATS. The last two spots add up to a 41-13 ATS mark. I'm betting the Broncos will cover a big number again. I'm laying the points with Denver, my Sunday Smackdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-07-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -120 | 71 h 16 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Buccaneers on Sunday. A lot of changes since these teams took the field in 2013. Tampa Bay owns serious upgrades in coaching moves with Lovie Smith arriving on the scene. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers are definitely a notch down on the offensive side of the football. Cam Newton, who had off-season ankle surgery and has a healing rib injury is expected to start, but has little to throw to as far as experienced wideouts. He'll be using his TE's when he can get the ball to them. Newton and his offense didn't get a lot of time to develop a chemistry after the QB missed a decent amount of August. Carolina also lost a little bit from their defensive backfield and I do believe it's going to take some time for this team to get going. Then again, this team normally gets off to slow starts, at least where we care the most, the almighty point-spread. Carolina enters on a 5-11 ATS September slide, including a 0-5 ATS mark in week-1. But back to the secondary, Carolina's DBs will have to defend against a pair of 6'5 receivers in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. The offensive backfield isn't bad in QB Josh McCown and RB Doug Martin. And new DC Leslie Frazier has a lot to like on the defensive side of the line of scrimmage. I do believe the Buccs are a couple notches ahead of Carolina at this point. Besides the "go-against" spots mentioned above, the chalk between these NFC South rivals is on a 6-1 ATS run. I'm betting it'll be 7-1 after Sunday. I'm laying the points with the Buccaneers, my Sunday Tapout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-07-14 | Washington Redskins v. Houston Texans -3 | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Houston Texans on Sunday. Two new head coaches make their regular season debuts in this one with Jay Gruden calling the shots for the Skins and Bill O'Brien on the Texans' sideline. O'Brien has a fierce defense to work with when healthy - and they are healthy to begin the season. This means we'll see J.J. Watt at full tilt, along with LB and defensive leader Brian Cushing. I expect better offensive results in 2014 for the Texans after watching the Houston implosion last year under the direction of Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub. Better and smarter QB play from Schaub (week-3 v. Seattle) and Case Keenum (week-7 v. Kansas City) could have easily had Houston at 4-3 SU heading into their bye week, rather than 2-5, eventually finishing 2-14 SU, losing their final 14 games of the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the nod as the starter in 2014 and we expect game-management and fewer mistakes from the QB position. Fitzpatrick is blessed with a strong receiving combo of Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins and RB Arian Foster. Houston's offense will face a Redskins' defense playing without a lot of quality depth in the secondary thanks to injuries and a suspension. I believe Houston will be too much for the Skins in this one, extending Washington's road woes to 1-6 ATS in their last seven. I'm laying the points with the Texans, my Afternoon Annihilator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers +6 v. Seattle Seahawks | 16-36 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Packers on Thursday night. Aaron Rodgers missed a slew of games last season, but he's healthy and I expect the no-huddle offense to be "just what the doctor ordered" to off-set the "12th-man" in Seattle. Green Bay has the confidence that they can not only play with Seattle, but beat them on their own turf. These teams met in a now infamous replacement ref game in September 2012, when Seattle won 14-12 on a blown officiating call in the endzone. But the Packers will remember that they took this team right to the wire and would have won the game if not for the blown call. The Packer offense is more than Rodgers. Eddie Lacy ran for over 1,100-yards last season and Randall Cobb is once again healthy after missing more than half of the Packer games a season ago. Defensively, the Pack will welcome the return of Clay Matthews and they acquired DE Julius Peppers in the off-season. They'll be tested by Seattle's talented and poised offense, no doubt, but I believe the Packers are up to the task. I do expect a slight drop-off early in the season for Seattle's defense. They did lose lineman Chris Clemons, one of three defensive losses up front. The Packers own the offense to exploit the loss of the three defenders and I expect the matchups up front to be a big key to this game...advantage Green Bay! The Packers are 40-27 ATS on the road under the direction of HC Mike McCarthy and I expect another cover tonight. I'm grabbing the points with the Packers on Thursday night, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 66 h 34 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Seahawks on Sunday. There are many factors involved with this play, but of the utmost importance is Seattle's defense. The last time Seattle's top ranked defense faced a team for the first time this season and had an extra week to prepare, they were a stone wall. The Seahawks not only held the New Orleans Saints to 7 points in the 27-point win on December 2nd, but held Drew Brees to 147 yards passing. That defense, with extra time to prepare will face a Denver attack that hasn't faced many good defenses this season. Some would argue KC was the best stop-unit Denver faced all season and the Chiefs were banged-up by the time they met for the first time this season. Offensively, I expect big things from Seattle. Russell Wilson, in my opinion, will get plenty of chances to test the deep waters. Denver heads into this one with a messy secondary thanks to injuries. DBs like Champ Bailey and Quentin Jammer have lost a step over the years and will have to make major contributions minute-wise. New England had receivers open beyond the Denver secondary, but whether it was due to the flu or injury, Tom Brady was unable to take advantage. There's nothing wrong with Russell Wilson and when he begins to scramble parallel to the line of scrimmage it'll create even more time for Seattle receivers to get behind DBs. Seattle wants to utilize Marshawn Lynch on the ground and in order to get the best out of the ground game, they'll likely stretch the Denver defense on occasion. All of that and I haven't even mentioned the added dimension Percy Harvin could bring to this game on both offense and special teams. Add it up and I'm backing the Seattle Seahawks plus the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks -3 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 135 h 16 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Seattle on Sunday. These teams have met four times during the Wilson/Kaepernick era. Three of the times, the two young phenom's have started for their respective teams. But with Wilson at QB, Seattle has dominated the 49ers at home. Seattle owns 29-3 and 42-13 wins over SFO at CenturyLink Field with Wilson as the starter, while SFO has eked-out wins at home. And the best part about it, the Seattle QB doesn't need to have a huge game through the air for the Seahawks to win by margin. In fact, Wilson has thrown for a combined 313 yards in the two wins, on just 23-of-40 passing. Instead, the Seahawks have received big performances from Marshawn Lynch with the run/pass threat of Wilson to keep the Niner defense busy. Lynch is obviously a key. After all, if Carolina would have had a consistent run-threat, we may not even be talking about SFO right now. I also don't necessarily agree with keeping Colin Kaepernick in the pocket as much as Harbaugh has this season. He had just 15 yards on 8 carries last week and he's not polished enough yet in the pocket to win with his arm against a defense like Seattle's. The Seahawks rank 1st in the league in yards passing allowed, total yards allowed, and most importantly, points allowed. Much like the last two meetings in the Emerald City, I expect SFO to be unable to "keep up." The Seahawks have "the goods" on whatever the 49ers attempt to do. They're on an 8-1 ATS run against teams that average at least 7 yards per pass (SFO: 7.1). And they're 6-0 ATS against teams that average at least 130 yards rushing per game in the second half of the last three seasons (SFO: 138.6 yrpg). We should note Seattle out-scored those six teams by an average of 32-16! One final note: Seattle, with Pete Carroll as HC, is 15-4 ATS when playing with revenge. I'm laying the points with the Seahawks, my Sunday Smackdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos -8 | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Denver Broncos on Sunday. While SDG may put some points on the board, they'll land a far cry from the amount Denver will score, in my opinion. The Charger defense has received several pats on the back for "holding" Denver to a combined 48 points in their two meetings this season. But checkout Peyton Manning's stats: Manning completed 52-of-77 (68%) of his attempts for over 600 yards with 6 TDs and just 1 INT. The defensive play wasn't as much of a statement as you'd think. The Broncos will attack a Charger defense that ranks 29th against the pass and Denver has had the added benefit of preparing for the "Bolts" since it became apparent last week that SDG would be this week's opponent. Manning will have "all hands on deck" for this one and remember, this is the only team in NFL history to have five players with at least 10 TDs. Philip Rivers simply doesn't have that kind of weaponry around him and his RB, Ryan Matthews is suffering from a knee injury. He's listed as questionable. One thing we do know, Matthews is not 100% healthy...and that could be a big blow to the Charger attack. I believe they'll have to go "up top" more than usual in this one. Denver learned a lot from last year's playoff loss to Baltimore and I believe they'll take care of business on Saturday in a high scoring, but wide margin win. I released SDG on these pages last week and we cashed. But road non-favorites (dogs or PK) off an upset win by at least 14 points have covered just 72 of the last 194 times in the NFL. Denver, meanwhile, is on an 11-2 ATS run against defenses that allow at least a 64% completion rate since Peyton Manning became a Bronco. The Broncos (w/ Manning) are also on a 15-4 ATS run as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. More of the same. I'm laying the points with Denver on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 22-43 | Win | 100 | 61 h 23 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the New England Patriots on Saturday night. Indianapolis is in this game for two reasons: First - the KC Chiefs made several ridiculous coaching and on-field blunders after building a 38-10 third quarter lead last week. Second - the Chiefs also suffered a ridiculous amount of injuries to key defensive players, including losing a couple of defensive backs, most importantly, Brandon Flowers. Once Flowers was lost the Chiefs had no chance covering Colt receiver T.Y Hilton, who finished with 13 receptions for 224 yards and 2 TDs. I think it's pretty safe to say, Hilton would not have even approached those numbers if KC's defense stayed healthy for the entire four quarters. Now Indy must regroup against playoff-savvy and Super Bowl veteran New England. The Patriots are 17-7 in the postseason with Tom Brady behind center, going to 5 Super Bowls and winning 3 Lombardi Trophies. They're 8-0 SU at home this season (6-2 ATS) and averaged 37.5 ppg over their last four at home. That doesn't bode well for a Colts' defense that allowed 44 points and 513 yards to Kansas City. The Colts watched QB Alex Smith complete 30-of-46 passes for 378 yards and 4 TDs...and that was without the Jamaal Charles running threat after the KC RB was injured early in the game. Last time here, Indy got blasted 59-24 by the Pats. Tom Brady connected on 24-of-35 passes for 331 yards with 3 TDs and no INTs. I expect another big margin winner in this one. The Patriots are on a 6-1 ATS run at home. They gained 382 yards in their final outing of the season...an important note considering New England is a momentum team, going 54-22-2 ATS following a game where they topped 350 yards, including a current 5-0, 100% run in this spot. I'm laying the points with New England on Saturday night, my Smackdown GOY! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Chargers on Sunday. The Chargers looked like they were going to be home for the postseason, watching from their couches before ending the season on a four-game win streak. Philip Rivers is playing with utmost confidence and a healthy cockiness in this year's offense. HC McCoy and his assistants have junked last year's offense, which was based on throwing the ball deep too often, to one that takes advantage of underneath routes and short-to-medium range passes, which let's the receivers run after making the catch. This type of attack gives the Chargers a better opportunity to beat the Bengals than if they were still throwing the ball deep too often. The Bengals are strong up front on defense, but with shorter routes and a quicker release, there won't be as much pressure on the Charger pass-blockers. It also means the "Bolts" can take their shots after forcing the Bengal secondary up early in the game. I also expect the SDG defense to disrupt Cincinnati's offensive rhythm enough to keep their own offense in the game. Cincy QB Andy Dalton has improved, but I still don't want to lay a TD in a playoff game with a signal caller who's always one play away from making a costly mistake. The Chargers are on a 4-0 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record. And Marvin Lewis coached Bengal teams are just 2-10 ATS at home against teams that average at least 7.5 yards per pass (SDG averages 7.9 pypa). That's a combined 14-2 winning mark. Just a couple of "techs" to back our on-field matchups and line value on the dog. I'm grabbing the points with the Chargers on Sunday. Thanks & GL! - Scott Spreitzer.
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01-04-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +1 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 44-45 | Push | 0 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
I'm backing the KC Chiefs on Saturday. The return of Justin Houston is a big deal for the Chiefs. Houston is a dominant pass rusher and KC has struggled without him. Houston is expected to back on Saturday. Indianapolis beat KC, 23-7 just a few weeks ago. KC virtually "mailed it in," and it was obvious they didn't care much about that contest. They'll take on a Colts' offense that has struggled in passing situations against blitz-schemes since losing Reggie Wayne to injury. Andrew Luck's numbers in this situation have hit the skids. KC will bring the pressure, unlike the first time these teams met. Offensively, KC is in a nice spot. WR Dwayne Bowe is listed as probable, but whether he plays or not, it won't make a difference to me, nor their game plan. Look for a lot of Jamaal Charles, both running the football against the Colts' 26th ranked run defense and catching the ball out of the backfield. Tough matchups on both sides of the line of scrimmage for the Colts. KC heads into this one on a 7-1 ATS run on the road. NFL road teams in revenge of a loss and off a road game the previous week are on a 73-35 ATS run. Meanwhile, Andy Reid coached teams are 15-5 ATS in road revenge. More of the same. I'm backing the KC Chiefs on Saturday, my Wildcard Smackdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-29-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys +7 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. Is Tony Romo a better QB than Kyle Orton? No doubt. Is his season-ending injury worthy of a 9 1/2 point line adjustment? I don't believe so. Last week, before the week-16 card kicked-off, the LVH in Las Vegas posted Dallas as a 2 1/2 point favorite over the Eagles on their Look-Ahead line card. As I post this play, the Cowboys are a 7 point underdog. I believe there has been an over-adjustment to a team that stops no one. The Eagles' defense ranks 30th in yards passing allowed and total yards allowed per game. And let's not forget, Orton has started 69 games in his NFL career...this isn't his first rodeo and he couldn't ask for a better defense to step-in against. There's also no doubt he's been practicing with the first team since Monday despite the QB "shell game" played by HC Jason Garrett. Some will cite Philadelphia's 5-2 SU road record this season. But the Eagels' five wins came against the Redskins, Giants, Buccaneers, Raiders, and the Packers who were playing without Aaron Rodgers. Philly allowed 52 and 48 points in their two road losses. I do believe Dallas will be able to move the ball, both on the ground and through the air against a weak Eagle stop unit. Orton has plenty of offensive weapons to turn to and will be in a situation where he'll look to make sure to manage the game, rather than trying to do too much. The Cowboys are on a 4-1 ATS run within the division, while the Eagles are are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 against teams with a winning record. I'm grabbing the points with the Cowboys, my Sunday Smackdown G.O.M.! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-29-13 | Kansas City Chiefs +9.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing the Under between the Packers & Bears on Sunday. The line for today's meeting is actually a couple of points higher than it was when the teams met in early November. I cashed the Under in that one on these pages...yes, Under players were a bit fortunate, but the bottom line is, I like the Under even more in this one. Aaron Rodgers is back for the Pack, but the defenses are healthier on the ends than they were in the first meeting. And due to the winner-take-all atmosphere with the loser's season coming to an end, I expect both teams to get after it with a more aggressive approach than we've seen for most of the season from these two defenses. Jay Cutler can be had by speed rushers from the ends. Aaron Rodgers could be a little rusty after being sidelined from game action for 8 weeks. I will be absolutely shocked if either of these coaching staffs allow the opposing QB to pick them apart without applying serious heat in such a meaningful game. One more note - they're expecting winds of 20 mph and maybe greater when this game kicks off. The ground attacks will be even more important and keeping the ball on the ground keeps the clock moving. The series is 13-3 to the Under the last 16 meetings, including a perfect 6-0, 100% Under run when they meet in Chicago. I'm betting on more of the same. I'm playing the Under between the Packers & Bears on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-22-13 | New England Patriots +2 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Patriots on Sunday afternoon. I went against New England on these pages last weekend and we cashed the ticket. But the Patriots came within less than 20-yards and an incomplete pass in the endzone from turning our winner into a loser. That loss and Baltimore's recent run has given us nice value on the road team in this one. Yes, Baltimore beat the Lions on six made FGs. But we all know the Lions blew that one and it was as much of a Detroit loss as it was a Baltimore win...just ask Calvin Johnson. The Ravens are not running the football well this season and their other four wins during the 5-1 run have come against a weak Minnesota team by 3 points, a mediocre Pittsburgh team by 2 points, and a win over Cincy in OT. They also beat the hapless NY Jets. Other than the win against the Jets, the Ravens are just a handful of plays from a 1-5 run. The fortune runs out on Sunday. After the first month of the season, NFL road teams with a +3/-3 line range are on a 70-36 ATS run off a road loss. They're 10-2 ATS when they're on the road and off a road loss under Belichick, outscoring the dozen opponents by an average score of 28-18. And the Pats are on a 41-21 ATS run overall when getting points in the Belichick era. I'm grabbing the points with New England, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-22-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Cincinnati Bengals -8 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Bengals on Sunday. I went against the Bengals on these pages last week and we cashed with the Steelers. Cincy was a little flat early in the game, but it was special teams that did them in. Despite the fact they were down 24-0 midway through the second quarter, the Bengals were back in the game with about 5 minutes to go in the fourth in the 30-20 loss. Pittsburgh's first 21 points came on a 1-yard drive, a 47-yard drive, and a 67-yard punt return for a TD. I expect Cincy to bounce back in a big way against a Minnesota team that's feeling pretty good about themselves after a 48-30 win over the Eagles. This week, the one-dimensional Viking offense will face a Bengal defense that ranks 6th overall, including 7th against the pass and 5th against the run. Meanwhile, the Bengals outstanding offensive line will pound away against a Viking defense that ranks 31st overall, including 30th against the pass and 20th against the run. But most of all, the reason for this big play is where the line sits thanks in part to Minnesota's big win last weekend. We should note that NFL road non-favorites (underdog or PK) have covered just 18 of their last 62 if they're off an upset win by at least 14 points and are now an underdog to a team off a road loss. The Vikings are 0-7 ATS off an upset win by 14 or more as a home dog, scoring just 12 ppg the following week. And Cincy enters 6-0 SU & ATS at home this season, scoring 49, 41, and 42 points in their last three. Those last two situations add up to a 13-0 mark. I'm laying the points with the Bengals, my Non-Conf Blockbuster GOY. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-15-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. A lot of folks have been talking about placing a future bet on the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, lately. While there's no doubt they have played well, they still can't completely mask the fact Andy Dalton is still not where they hoped he'd be. And if the running game struggles, I believe Dalton will, also. I would expect a veteran DC like Dick LeBeau to have his team focused on forcing the game onto the arm and the decision-making of Andy Dalton. Pittsburgh has done a nice job against teams that average at least 7 yards per pass, going 45-19 ATS and holding those squads to an average of 19 ppg. The Bengals are also facing a Pittsburgh team that is flying under the radar, something we almost never get a chance to say when it comes to the Steelers. But the fact is, Pittsburgh (3-2 last 5) has been playing a better brand of football over the last several weeks and are a couple of plays and a sideline away from a 5-0 SU run. Ben Roethlisberger and the offense have found their rhythm. "Big Ben" has completed 102-of-162 pass attempts over the last four games, averaging 297.5 yards per game with 11 TD passes and no INTs. They averaged nearly 7 yards per play last week...an important note because when this team finds their offense, the momentum usually continues. The Steelers are on a 16-6 ATS run if they averaged at least 6.5 yards per play in their previous game, out-scoring those 22 opponents by an average of 12 ppg. Pittsburgh is not going away...it's not their style. And I'm betting they'll take out some 2013 frustrations with a win over Cincy. I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers plus the points, my Smackdown release on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-15-13 | Arizona Cardinals v. Tennessee Titans +3 | Top | 37-34 | Push | 0 | 36 h 21 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Titans. There has been a lot of talk about Tennessee's losses since QB Jake Locker was lost to injury. And since the bye week, the Titans are 2-4 SU. But examine those games a little closer and you'll find just how close the Titans are to having a much better record, even as good as 5-1 SU in their last six. They lost by two points to a Jaguars' squad that's playing red-hot winning football. They lost by three points in Indianapolis, then lost by a score of 22-14 in the rematch against the Colts in Nashville. We should note, the eight point loss came after the Titans trailed 15-14 with two minutes to go in the fourth quarter. Their only "ugly" loss in the last six games came last week, 51-28 in Denver. But even in that game, the Titans led 21-20 at the half, but couldn't "keep up" with Peyton Manning and the Broncos. This week, they'll face an Arizona team that brings a one-dimensional offense to the field. The Cardinals can't run the football (26th in the NFL) and I expect the Titans to "bring the heat" against slow-footed Carson Palmer. We should note that despite the slide, the Titans have not allowed a single passing TD in their last four games. Arizona will need to be able to run - and it's something they don't do well. We also have a league-wide 76-39 ATS situation in this one, backing December home non-favorites (dogs or PK) if they're off a road loss by 14 or more points. I expect more of the same. I'm grabbing the points with the Titans, my Underdog Knockout GOM on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-15-13 | New England Patriots v. Miami Dolphins +1.5 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
I'm backing the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. The Patriots are always over-valued on paper...but they used to cover the games anyway with outstanding point-spread records. But this season is not the same. The Pats have covered just 1 of their last 8 road contests going back to last season. Tom Brady, who has put up strong numbers at home has just 7 TD passes with 5 INTs on the road this season. He won't have Gronkowki - and we saw how much he means to this offense when he got healthy earlier this season. Right now, I'd have to agree with a statement made by Cris Collinsworth who said that Cincinnati is running the Patriots' offense better than New England is. Brady just doesn't have the tools. They're really struggling on defense, giving up 29 ppg in their last 6 outings. The run defense is pretty bad - 25th in the league allowing over 135 yards per game. The Dolphins, you'll remember ran through and around the Pats' defense, gaining over 150 yards on about 5 yards per carry in the first meeting this season. Miami was within 3 midway through the 4th quarter, but they missed a pair of FGA and finished the game with a minus-2 turnover ratio. The Dolphins offensive line has recovered from the controversy that had this team close to jumping the tracks and should have little trouble establishing the line of scrimmage. New England is on a 0-4 ATS slide on the road, while Miami has covered 4 in a row and 8 of their last 10 at home. I'm backing the Dolphins, my Div. Revenge Game of the Year on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-09-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears +1.5 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Chicago Bears on Monday night. While both teams are in serious battles for a playoff spot, the Bears can ill-afford a loss tonight, which would mark their third in a row. I believe they're going to bounce back in the win column, directed by QB Josh McCown, who is playing well, entering tonight's game with a 103.6 rating, with 9 TDs and just 1 INT. McCown and the Bears' offense will attack a Cowboy defense that ranks 27th against the run and dead last 32nd against both the pass and in total defense. Monte Kiffin has long since overstayed his welcome as a defensive coach in the NFL and his Cowboys' defense has been shredded all season. The Cowboys enter this one on a 0-7 ATS slide over the last three seasons against teams that average at least 375 yards per game in the second half of the season. Their one time in this particular spot this season ended in a 49-17 loss just a few weeks ago. The problem on the other side of the line of scrimmage is the Dallas ground game, which is virtually non-existent, putting all of the pressure on the arm of Tony Romo. The combination of the struggling ground game and the poor play on the defensive side of the football catches up to them in this one. Besides the 0-7 ATS slide mentioned above, the Cowboys are also on a 1-7 ATS slide on Monday nights. I'm betting they fall short again. I'm backing the Chicago Bears, my Monday night Smackdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-08-13 | Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints -3 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with New Orleans on Sunday night. The Saints are off the embarrassing loss to Seattle last week, but that game was played on the road and we know that going against New Orleans in the Super Dome is taking your betting-bankroll into your own hands. The Saints enter on an 18-5 ATS run at home where they have averaged 36 ppg, while holding the 23 opponents to 21 ppg. They're also a perfect 7-0 ATS over the last three seasons at home after being held to 75 or fewer yards rushing in their previous game. New Orleans bounces back well in this situation, blowing out the previous seven opponents by an average score of 40-15! Drew Brees struggled badly in the passing game in Seattle, but he owns a 122.2 passer rating at home this season (2nd best in the league) where he's thrown 19 TD passes with only 3 INTs. Carolina owns strong defensive numbers, no doubt about it, but I believe the Panthers lack of a passing game is going to hurt them in this one. The Saints can "load-up" against the run, spy on Cam Newton and not worry too much about the aerial game that ranks 27th in the NFL. Tied atop the division at 9-3 SU and with a road game at Carolina coming up in a couple of weeks, New Orleans understands just how big this game is for them. I expect the Saints to come out motivated and ready to extend their outstanding run in the dome. Besides the 18-5 ATS run mentioned above, the Saints are also on a 4-0 ATS run off a SU loss, including 2-0 SU/ATS this season, beating Buffalo 35-17 and crushing Dallas 49-17. I'm laying the points with the Saints on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-08-13 | Tennessee Titans +13 v. Denver Broncos | 28-51 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Titans on Sunday. Tennessee has played better than their record, losing one game in OT, playing Seattle to within three points as late as midway through the fourth quarter and losing two more games by margins of just two and three points. In fact, they actually out-gained Indy 347-264 and were within one point of the Colts before a Donald Brown TD run inside two minutes to go in the game. But it's more than close calls. The Titans will bring to the table one of the better pass defenses Peyton Manning will have faced this season. We also have a Denver team that's between games against division opponents Kansas City and San Diego. So, yes, it is the Titans third straight road game, but the line makes up for it in my opinion. And it's also a case of now or never for Tennessee as they look to stay in the wildcard race. I expect a close, hard-fought football game and the Titans have the running game to keep Peyton on the sideline. The Titans enter on a 5-1 ATS run on the road. And in the second half of the season, NFL road non-favorites are on a 99-54 ATS run if they're off a SU road loss. I'm taking the big points with the Titans on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-08-13 | Oakland Raiders v. NY Jets -3 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Jets on Sunday. I have been one of the few who downplayed Geno Smith when things were going well for the rookie a few weeks ago. Smith and the offense certainly hit rock-bottom last weekend, but I like the fact Rex Ryan is sticking with the former West Virginia signal-caller and I do believe he'll bounce back this week against a Raider defense that allows over 253 yards passing per game. Offensively, the Raiders are "just what the doctor ordered" for the Jets' defense. Oakland has a one-dimensional offense, only able to run the football. Two problems on Sunday. First of all, Raider RB depth has been hamstrung by injuries. Second, the Jets' defense is #1 in the NFL defending the run, allowing just 77 yards rushing per game. Oakland rolls into town 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 off a cover. Meanwhile, the Jets are on a 17-4 ATS run at home off a SU home loss. While many Jets' fans groaned when Ryan announced he was sticking with Geno Smith, I thought it was a shrewd move that will give both Smith and his offense the confidence it needs to get them over the top in this one. I'm laying the points with the Jets on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-01-13 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +1.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
I'm backing the Washington Redskins on Sunday night. Washington didn't look too hot last time out, a 27-6 loss to SFO on Monday night. But they get "just what the doctor ordered" in this one. The Skins will face a Giants' defense that rarely gets to the opposing QB. New York owns one of the worst pass rushes in the league, averaging less than two sacks per game; RG-3 must be "licking his chops." The Giants are also off a morale-busting loss at home last weekend to Dallas. The Giants had won four in a row after starting the season 0-6 and a win would have put them right in the thick of things in the NFC East. The Giants tied the game with just over 4 minutes to go in the 4th quarter, but a Dallas FG at the end of regulation dropped New York to 4-7. When you take a look at the four New York wins you'll see they didn't face a single legit NFL starter. The Giants faced the Vikings who were led by Josh Freeman. They beat a Philadelphia team that used Michael Vick and Matt Barkley. They then beat the Terrelle Pryor-led Raiders and the Scott Tolzien-led Packers. Without a pass rush this team will be in trouble against a Washington squad that's had a disappointing season, but is still dangerous on the offensive side of the football, ranked #1 on the ground and #7 in total yards per game. The Giants are on a 2-7 ATS road slide, while the Redskins are on a 5-0 ATS run in December under Shanahan. The Skins have covered five straight against the Giants and I'm betting they'll extend the run. I'm backing the Washington Redskins, my Sunday Night Game of the Month. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-01-13 | Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. San Diego Chargers | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. We had Cincy two weeks ago and cashed the ticket in 41-20 win over Cleveland, a nice bounce-back win for the Bengals after dropping two in a row. Now, off a bye, I expect the Cincinnati passing attack to shine against a SDG defense that allows 276 yards passing per game (28th in the NFL). At times, Andy Dalton has been inconsistent, but he and A.J. Green can take a few deep chances in this one against a secondary that has just 6 interceptions on the season. The Bengals' defense should take care of the rest. Cincy ranks 6th in points allowed, yards passing allowed, and total yards allowed per game, while also holding opponents to just 102 yards rushing per game (10th). SDG broke out for 41 points in their last-second 3-point win over Kansas City last weekend, catching the Chiefs in a Broncos' sandwich. SDG had averaged just 20 ppg over their previous six games and I believe last week's result was an anomaly. The Chargers are just 1-7-1 ATS following their last nine SU wins. Meanwhile, Cincy has been "money," currently on a 13-6-1 ATS run in their last 20 games. They have also played some of their best point-spread football in December, on a 5-1-1 ATS run. And finally, under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 9-2 ATS off a double-digit divisional road win. The matchups on the field and the "techs" are in agreement. I'm backing the Bengals, my Road Warrior on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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12-01-13 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs +6.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Kansas City on Sunday. The Chiefs' defense did a nice job of slowing down Peyton Manning and the Bronco offense two weeks ago. Denver is tops in the league in yards passing per game and in total yards per game, averaging over 330 yards through the air and 451.5 yards per game, overall. They're also averaging 39 ppg. Manning has connected on 69% of his pass attempts this season, but the Chiefs held him to 24-of-40 and 1 passing TD in the 27-17 Denver win a couple weeks ago. That's pretty good when you consider Manning has thrown 35 TD passes in Denver's other 10 games this season. KC held Denver to its lowest point total of the season and I expect another strong effort by the Chiefs in this one. LB Justin Houston is expected to miss this one (elbow) and while Tamba Hali is listed as questionable, he says he will play. KC has enough depth and athleticism on defense to make the adjustments whether Hali plays or not. Offensively, the Chiefs will face a banged-up Denver defense. Omar Bolden, Champ Bailey, and Duke Ihenacho are all listed as probable. But Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is questionable with a shoulder injury, and of course, free safety Rahim Moore is out. Just like last weekend, this means the Broncos will play without a true free safety. Unlike KC, Denver doesn't have the depth to make up for the loss. Ihenacho or Mike Adams will have to play out of position, switching over from strong safety. This is not as easily done as it sounds and the secondary paid for it in the second half last weekend in the 34-31 loss to New England. Denver also won't have DE Derek Wolfe after he suffered a seizure on Friday afternoon. KC has the running game to expose Denver and I expect Alex Smith to be able to go up top enough to keep the Broncos' bruised secondary honest. As far as the "techs" are concerned, as much as I respect John Fox, his teams are just 1-10 ATS off a road loss by 3 or fewer points. They don't bounce-back well and were out-scored by an average of 29-17 in those games. While Fox isn't expected to be back to work until Monday, this is obviously his team. And we should also note the Broncos have covered just 3 of their last 10 against teams with a winning SU record. I'm grabbing the points with the Chiefs, my Knockout on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-28-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | Top | 20-22 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Ravens on Thursday night. Pittsburgh has strung together three straight wins and have played well for most of the 12 quarters in the process. But trying to move the ball in a consistent manner and score points on the Baltimore defense at M&T Bank Stadium has been next to impossible. The Ravens are 4-1 SU/ATS at home where they have held the opposition to just 10.8 ppg. The only home loss this season came by a 19-17 final score against a Green Bay Packers' team that still had a healthy Aaron Rodgers behind center. We should note Green Bay was averaging nearly 30 ppg at the time that game was played. Pittsburgh has won three straight, but on the whole, the Steelers are unable to run the football, ranked 30th in the league, averaging just 77.3 yards per game. I expect Baltimore to shut down the one-dimensional Steeler attack and for the Raven offense to kick it into gear with Ray Rice on the ground against the 24th ranked Steeler run defense. Once Rice gets going, Flacco will find an "honest" Steeler defense easier to navigate against. Pittsburgh is off a 27-11 win over Cleveland as a 2 1/2 point underdog. Road teams off of double-digit outright underdog wins are just 22-48 ATS on the road with a +3/-3 line range after the first month of the season. And Mike Tomlin teams have covered just 8 of 26 off a win by at least 14 points. Meanwhile, under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 16-5 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less. They have won those games by an average margin of more than 12 ppg. I'm laying the points with the Ravens, my Thursday Blockbuster. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-28-13 | Oakland Raiders +9 v. Dallas Cowboys | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Raiders on Thursday. I have spoken for years about backing "losing" teams during the NFL stretch-drive and we're certainly doing so with Oakland. During the second half of NFL seasons, home favorites of 3 1/2 to 10 points have covered just 9 of the last 39 times if they're coming in having won 2 of their last 3 games, are playing .510 to .600 football, provided they're playing a team with a losing SU record. These teams are decent on the season, but not great. They're also over-valued by the betting public and generally lay too many points for it. That's the case in this one and Dallas has been horrible in Thursday's situation. The Cowboys enter on a 0-6 ATS slide at home against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season, getting out-scored by an average of 27-25! Dallas does have pressure in the NFC East standings to deal with, while the Raiders still have something to play for still in the wildcard race. Matt McGloin gets the starting nod in this one after playing well in place of Terrelle Pryor. Oakland and McGloin will attack a Dallas defense that ranks 32nd in the league allowing over 430 yards per game. In fact, Dallas also ranks 30th against the run, 31st against the pass, and they allow more than 25 ppg. Look for Oakland to take this right to the wire at the very least. I'm taking the points with the Raiders on Thursday, my Thanksgiving Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-24-13 | Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots +2.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
I'm backing the New England Patriots on Sunday night. Tough spot for Denver with this game falling between dates with the Kansas City Chiefs. Wes Welker and Julius Thomas are expected to play and while it's never tough to "get up" for a game against the Patriots, the bottom line is that Denver is a banged-up football team. They have also built their 9-1 record against a schedule that leaves a lot to be desired as far as degree of difficulty is concerned. The Denver defense, which ranks 28th against the pass, will face a red-hot Tom Brady. The New England signal-caller has completed 52-of-73 passes (71%) over the last two games with Gronkowski and Amendola getting healthy. The Patriot offense will attack a Denver secondary playing without a true free safety. Rahim Moore is sidelined by injury which means the position will be manned by either Duke Ihenacho or Mike Adams and both are strong safeties, which means one will have to play out of position. If the winds pick-up (which may happen tonight), the Patriots also own the better ground game, ranked 9th in the league, while the Broncos are 20th best when it comes to the running game. It's a matchup and scheduling strong spot for the home team tonight. The Patriots are 40-20 ATS as an underdog under Bill Belichick. They're also on a 30-12-1 ATS run off a SU loss and on a 4-0 ATS run at home. I'm backing the New England Patriots on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-24-13 | Tennessee Titans -1 v. Oakland Raiders | 23-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon. Ryan Fitzpatrick has played well since taking over behind center for the Titans. The former Buffalo Bills' QB has completed 44 of his last 61 passes for 486 yards with 3 TD passes and no INTs. I expect another strong performance against a Raider defense that struggles against the pass. Tennessee RB Chris Johnson has been outstanding in two of the last three games and I like the way the Titan offensive line matches up against Oakland. Defensively, the Titans have been outstanding against the pass and they now have a chance to put together a solid scheme after seeing Matt McGloin last week against Houston. I expect the former Penn State signal-caller to take his lumps in this one after a decent performance in last week's win. The Titans have been money-makers on the road, currently on a 4-0 ATS run away from home. Meanwhile, the Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS their last five following a SU win (8-0-1 combined spots) and they're 18-36 ATS in the second half of the season against teams with a losing SU record. I'm backing the Titans on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-24-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals -3 | Top | 11-40 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. Arizona is 6-4 and firmly in the playoff race. They'll host an Indianapolis team that should be in a little trouble in this one. The Colts are without WR Reggie Wayne, obviously, and Andrew Luck's completion rate has dropped to 36% when defenses blitz since Wayne has been sidelined. Arizona first-year coach and former Indy assistant Bruce Arians has this team buying into his concepts and he has resurrected Carson Palmer's career. Palmer has 6 TD passes and just 2 INTs in his last 3 games and faces a struggling Colts' defense that ranks 28th against the run and they're middle-of-the-pack defending the pass. Indy has allowed an average of 30.5 ppg in their last four contests. Meanwhile, the Arizona defense is shutting teams down, ranking 2nd against the run and 8th overall. And while many will make note of Robert Mathis and the pass rush he brings for the visitors, it's Arizona OLB John Abraham who may harass Luck into making mistakes. Abraham has seven sacks in the last four games and as stated above, Luck does not throw well when the heat is on with Reggie Wayne on the sideline. Arizona is 6-0 ATS in the second half of the last three seasons when facing a defense that allows at least 5.65 yards per play. And Bruce Arians coached teams are on a 9-1 ATS run when the line is in the +3/-3 range. I'm laying the points with Arizona, my Tapout Blowout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-21-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +9.5 | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Falcons on Thursday night. What a difference a couple of months makes. These teams met in New Orleans in week-1. The Saints were only laying 3 1/2 at home and won the game, 23-17. Atlanta actually had the ball inside the Saints' 10-yard line with less than a minute to go in the game when an intercepted pass in the endzone put the finishing touch on the Saints' win. If Atlanta needed any motivation to "get up" for a game after their 2-8 start to the season, this is it. A game against the "hated" Saints. As far as the spread is concerned, Atlanta has gone from a 3 1/2 point road dog to a 9 1/2 point home dog since the beginning of the season. I expect this one to go right to the wire. New Orleans is not only coming off the tough physical contest with SFO, but they're just 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) on the road...a far cry from the way they play and fare at home. ATL is coming off a 13-point loss at Tampa Bay. Under HC Mike Smith, the Falcons are 11-3 ATS off a double-digit loss and the home team is on a 4-0 ATS run in this series. The final three spots mentioned above combine for an 18-4 mark. More of the same. I'm grabbing the points with the Falcons on Thursday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-18-13 | New England Patriots +3 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Patriots on Monday night. Carolina heads into Monday riding a 5-game winning streak. And while you have to give a team credit for a streak, much like Kansas City last night, the Panthers wins, at least four of the five, came against very soft opposition. Before beating San Francisco, the Panthers won four straight games against Atlanta, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, and Minnesota, teams with a combined record of 10-30 SU. They did beat the 49ers 10-9, but SFO can't throw the football. New England is a more balanced offense and I believe they'll present the Panthers' toughest test since Carolina lost 22-6 to Arizona before the winning streak began. Defensively, the Patriots allow just 19 ppg and expect to get Aqib Talib back on the field tonight. Carolina's offense leaves a lot to be desired and I expect them to struggle tonight. They also will face a New England defense that has forced at least one turnover in 36 straight games. The defense will face a one-dimensional Carolina offense tonight...a unit that ranks 26th through the air. The Patriots are 40-19 ATS as an underdog under Bill Belichick. They're 16-4 ATS during the second half of the season against teams that hold opponents to no more than 285 yards per game. And finally, the Pats enter on a 5-0 ATS MNF run. I'm backing the Patriots plus the points on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-17-13 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
I'm grabbing the points with the 49ers on Sunday. Some are jumping off the SFO ship after last week's loss to Carolina has dropped them to 6-3 SU and 2 1/2 games behind Seattle in the NFC West. But we feel this is a great time to back the Niners, especially against a Saints' team that the public has absolutely fallen in love with at home. The 49ers' passing game will get better as they get bodies back for Colin Kaepernick to throw to, but they do have a fantastic running game ranked 4th in the NFL. That's important because a strong running game can do damage against Rob Ryan's Saints' defense. New Orleans ranks 23rd defending the run, allowing over 117 yards per game on a whopping 5 yards per carry. The 49ers' offensive line, Frank Gore, and Kaepernick must be champing at the bit to get a shot at this defense. We also know we'll get a strong effort from the 49ers' stout defense, which should keep New Orleans from busting out, which in turn, allows the 49ers to stick with the ground attack. These teams met in the dome last November with the 49ers leaving with a 31-21 win. San Francisco ran for 144 yards on 31 carries, an average of 4.65 yards per carry. I believe they'll do it again on Sunday. San Francisco has performed well against teams in New Orleans' class. The 49ers are 12-3 ATS against teams that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry, outscoring those teams by an average score of 29-19. They're also 8-0 ATS when playing against the best teams in the league, those that own a win percentage of .750 or better. SFO has been even better against those teams, outscoring the elite 32-18! I'm taking the points with the 49ers, my Underdog Crusher. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-17-13 | Cleveland Browns v. Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Bengals on Sunday. Cincy is in revenge for a 17-6 loss to Cleveland on September 29. The Browns are certainly a different team now than they were then, especially at the QB position. Brian Hoyer had a big game in the win, but he is long gone due to injury. Now the league's 25th ranked offense (26th in ppg) is without a true starting QB (Jason Campbell). They also don't have the matter of timing on their side either. When last these teams met, the Bengals were off a win over Green Bay and had a date with the Patriots up next. This time, the Bengals will have nothing but the game with the Browns on their mind. Cincy is off back-to-back OT losses and needs to get back in the win column against an opponent that could be considered "just what the doctor ordered." The Bengals own the league's 4th best defense in total yards allowed per game and they give up just 18.6 ppg. Then there's the case of A.J. Green who struggled in the loss to Cleveland. Green will aim for his 6th straight 100-yard receiving performance in this one. The Browns simply don't match-up on either side of the line of scrimmage. Cincy is on a 5-0 ATS run at home and NFL teams in revenge are on a 36-13 ATS run if they scored no more than 9 points in the earlier meeting and they're off a loss by 3 points or less. Cincy fits the bill and I believe they're in a terrific play-on situation. I'm laying the points with the Bengals on Sunday, my Blockbuster Blowout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-11-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm backing Tampa Bay on Monday night. Miami has morale issues and a coach who has fallen on hard times in a hurry thanks in part to last week's situation between Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin. Sometimes teams pull together under stressful situations but I don't believe this will be one of those times. I had Miami last week and we cashed the ticket when they beat Cincy. But the offensive line that was already a mess is severely hamstrung now after losing the two players mentioned above. While Miami deals with the off-field distractions, the Buccs are showing signs of life. Last week's effort in Seattle was outstanding and they found a running game with Mike James rushing for nearly 160 yards. Tampa is on a 7-2-2 ATS run after rushing for at least 150 yards in their previous game. QB Mike Glennon has thrown 5 TD passes over the last three games without throwing an interception. Defensively, the Buccs have not played badly this season, in fact, they're middle of the pack in most important categories. They'll attack a Miami offensive line missing one side of their offensive line - and it's a unit that's allowed nearly three-dozen sacks on the season. Tough matchup for Miami under the circumstances. Both coaches are on the hot seat but we feel Greg Schiano is the HC who gets the one week reprieve. I'm backing the Buccaneers on Monday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-10-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -6 | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night. Darren Sproles is back this week and that's a huge shot in the arm for the Saints' offense. The running game has been stymied the last couple of weeks, but with Sproles, TE Jimmy Graham, and Drew Brees now with a full arsenal, the ground attack can get back to norm. Dallas heads into tonight's game with the 31st ranked defense against the pass and in total yards allowed per game. Monte Kiffin has long since worn out his usefulness as an NFL DC and I look for Sean Payton and the Saints' offense to take apart his Cowboy schemes. Meanwhile, in order to beat the Saints a team needs to be able to run the ball consistently and effectively and the Cowboys have done neither, ranked 27th on the ground running for less than 76 yards per game. The Saints enter on a 17-4 ATS run in their last 21 home games. They're also a perfect 7-0, 100% ATS against defenses that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry, winning those seven games by an average score of 38-21. More of the same. I'm laying the points with the Saints on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-10-13 | Buffalo Bills +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Bills on Sunday. E.J. Manuel is back behind center for Buffalo one week after C.J. Spiller returned at RB and rushed for 116 yards against Kansas City. The Bills out-gained the Chiefs 470-210 and averaged over 6 yards per play, while holding KC to less than 4 yards per play, but couldn't overcome a couple of horrible mistakes including a Jeff Tuel INT in the endzone returned 100 yards the other way for a TD. Tuel finished 18-for-39 with a pair of INTs and just 1 TD - but again, he won't be needed in this one unless Manuel goes down again. Look for Buffalo's offense to continue to pile-up yardage this week without the costly miscues. Buffalo owns the league's 7th best rushing offense and will face a Pittsburgh defense that's 2nd to last in the league defending the run (Hence: Matchup Mismatch). The Steelers' offense is one-dimensional, unable to run the ball averaging just over 73 yards per game. And "Big Ben" hasn't seen eye-to-eye with OC Todd Haley since the moment he was hired. Buffalo is 6-1 ATS off a SU loss, while Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS off a SU loss. More of the same. I'm taking the points with the Bills on Sunday.
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11-10-13 | St. Louis Rams +10 v. Indianapolis Colts | 38-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm grabbing the points with the Rams on Sunday. The Indianapolis Colts' offense is hamstrung without WR Reggie Wayne. They're banged-up at WR in general with Darrius Heyward-Bey expected to play today, but coming back after suffering a concussion a week ago. Basically, Andrew Luck has one threat to rely upon now and that's T.Y. Hilton. The problem is that without Wayne and with Heyward-Bey not at 100%, the Rams will be able to double Hilton. RB Trent Richardson has been a bigger disappointment in Indy than he was in Cleveland and he gained just 20 yards in last week's win over the Texans. Up front, I expect Rams' DT Kendall Langford to give Indy OLG Hugh Thornton fits all afternoon. Combine Langford with Chris Long and Robert Quinn and Luck could be in some trouble in this one. Let's not forget the Rams are 9th in the league defending the pass. Offensively, with Sam Bradford sidelined, the star of the offense has been RB Zac Stacy and he has responded quite well. Stacy has run for 261 yards on 53 carries the last 2 weeks, an average of nearly 5 yards per carry. Stacy and his offensive line will run right at a Colts' run defense that ranks 27th against the run. As you can see, there are plenty of matchup advantages in the Rams' favor and the point-spread is ridiculous when you consider them. The Rams are on an 8-2 ATS run against winning teams and I'm backing them again in this one. I'm taking the points with the Rams, my Underdog Crusher.
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11-10-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -111 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
I'm backing the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. According to Jay Kornegay, Sports Book Director at LVH in Las Vegas, he adjusted Green Bay's line value 8 1/2 points due to the injury to QB Aaron Rodgers. While I understand the adjustment from the other side of the counter perspective, our job is to beat those lines and in my opinion the adjustment is too much. The Packers own a fantastic running game with Eddie Lacy running for more yardage since October than any other RB in the NFL. Despite the loss of Rodgers we still saw gaping holes created by the o-line for Lacy against the Bears. I expect more of the same against the Eagles who rank dead last in the NFL allowing 419.3 total yards per game. I'm also not "buying" Nick Foles and the Eagle offense. Foles had a record-setting afternoon last week against the Oakland Raiders. But Green Bay is 15-5 ATS at home against teams that run for at least 130 yards per game. The Packers averaged 27 ppg while allowing just 15 ppg to those 20 opponents. And 12 times under HC McCarthy, the Packers have faced a team that gains at least 4.5 yards per carry during the second half of the season. Green Bay has clamped down on those teams winning by an average score of 34-16! I expect the available Packer players to pick up the slack, at least for this game, for their injured QB. I'm backing Green Bay, my NFC Shocker GOM on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-10-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons +4.5 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Falcons on Sunday. Seattle has looked rather unimpressive over their last six games. It all started with a narrow escape in a 23-20 OT win over Houston thanks in part to a Matt Schaub late-game meltdown. Since then, the Seahawks lost to Indianapolis; led Tennessee by just 3 points in the 4th quarter before winning 20-13; barely escaped defeat in a 14-9 win over the Rams; and last week had to come from behind to win in OT against the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The only somewhat comfortable win came against Arizona. I expect the close calls to catch up to Seattle on Sunday. Atlanta's offense gets a needed shot in the arm with Roddy White expected to return for this game. Tony Gonzalez has already been playing well and now Matt Ryan finally gets a dependable wideout back in the mix, also. Having threats to throw to also means the ATL ground game should get a break, also. Seattle will have to play an honest brand of defense - and let's not forget they have allowed 405 yards rushing combined over the last two weeks against the Rams & Buccaneers...just what the doctor ordered for the Falcon offense. We're also getting to the point of the season when underdogs with poor SU records begin to gain line value. The Falcons are in a 47-18 ATS league-wide spot today. You play on home dogs priced from 3 1/2 to 10 points after failing to cover two of their last three games, provided the home dog is playing no better than .250 football, their opponent owns a winning SU record, and we are in the second half of the season. And with Mike Smith as coach, the Falcons are 11-1 ATS off a double digit loss, outscoring the 12 opponents by an average of 32-21. I'm grabbing the points with the Falcons on Sunday, my DogPound release.
Please Note: The 77-23 combined spots include the 6-1 & 5-1 ATS situations in the Bills' game; the 8-2 ATS spot backing the Rams; and the 47-18 & 11-1 angles backing the Falcons. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-03-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans +2.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing the Houston Texans on Sunday night. The Colts had last weekend off after three tough battles in a row culminating with a 39-33 win over the Broncos (we had Indy). Unfortunately for Indy, they will be without mainstay WR Reggie Wayne and will face the NFL's top-ranked defense in yards passing and total yards allowed per game. Houston is also off a bye week and will look to turn around what has been a disappointing season thus far. The Texans will need to replace LB Brian Cushing who was injured before the break, but they did play several games without him last season. Case Keenum gets his first home start in this one and RB Ben Tate has been upgraded to probable, making life easier for the Houston offense if Arian Foster (questionable) is unable to go. The good news for Keenum and the offense is that Houston has been able to run right at and through the Indianapolis defense the last couple of times they've met. The Colts are once again struggling against the run, ranked 29th in the league in rushing defense. I expect Houston to attack the Colt defense on the ground no matter who is at RB, eventually opening things up for Keenum, Andre Johnson, and DeAndre Hopkins through the air. Houston enters on an 18-7 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road record and the home team in this series is on a 6-0 ATS run. I'm backing the Houston Texans on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-03-13 | New Orleans Saints v. NY Jets +6.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm grabbing the points with the NY Jets on Sunday. The Jets have struggled on the road but they have been just fine at home where they're 3-1 SU/ATS. New York got crushed 49-9 last weekend in Cincinnati and we weren't surprised at all. After all, we had the Bengals rated as our Week-8 Knockout. I will be surprised if the Jets don't at least cover the number this week. NFL teams off humiliating defeats have bounced back well for the most part and I expect the Jets to continue that trend. But it's also about the matchup on the field. As I have said in past weeks, I'm not as crazy about the Rob Ryan Saints' defense as most. They're not stingy enough against the run and the Jets can control the flow of this game with a ground game that's not bad, rushing for over 120 yards per contest. Running efficiently will make life easier on QB Geno Smith. The Saints' offense has not been nearly as powerful on the road as it is in the dome. New Orleans has scored 16, 26, and 27 points in their three road games, or 23 ppg. They're averaging nearly 32 ppg at home. And while the Saints gain 423 yards per game in the Super Dome, they average over 60 yards less per road game. Upset alert this week for the Saints and I'm grabbing the points with the New York Jets. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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11-03-13 | Minnesota Vikings +10 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Vikings on Sunday. Minnesota certainly has struggled this season, but this big number more than makes up for it. Dallas is off of five high intensity contests, including last weekend's last-second loss in Detroit. They have New Orleans up next so they could almost be forgiven...almost...for a little look-ahead past Minnesota. The Cowboys also offer up "just what the doctor ordered" for most opposing offenses. The Cowboys rank last in the league in yards passing allowed (315.4) and in total yards allowed per game (422.5). No less than four QBs have already topped 400 yards passing against Monte Kiffin's antiquated defensive schemes. This is a defense in a lot of trouble moving forward and even the Minnesota Vikings' offense should find success. Dallas is often over-priced against teams with a losing record, going just 1-5 ATS the last six times. They've covered just 2 of their last 9 at home against teams with a losing road record. I'm taking the points with the Vikings, I expect them to extend their ATS run to 8-1 against Dallas. Minnesota plus the points, my Underdog Crusher. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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10-31-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Miami Dolphins +3 | Top | 20-22 | Win | 105 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
I'm grabbing the points with the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. I had Cincy just two weeks ago and we cashed when they knocked off Detroit. But the Bengals, who did win that road game have been less than overwhelming away from home (1-3-1 ATS last 5 road). They lost at Chicago, lost at Cleveland (we had the Browns), and barely escaped against the Bills, winning by a FG in OT. Miami had everyone thinking they were well on their way to a big season, but have since hit hard times thanks to a leaky offensive line...and they blew a 14-point halftime lead this past weekend at New England. But talk is, QB Ryan Tannehill will be rolling out more this week to help avoid pressure. I like that addition to the passing game and I do believe it will make a difference...enough to cash the ticket in this one. They will attack a Cincy defense that won't be at full strength at linebacker. And offensively, I do believe the Bengals have been relying too much on the Andy Dalton - A.J. Green connection. Eventually, NFL DC's figure those things out and Miami has seen ample film on those two "lighting it up." Miami enters on a 4-1 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road record and they have covered 4 of the last 5 in the series. I'm backing the Dolphins plus the points. Thanks & GL! - Scott Spreitzer.
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10-27-13 | NY Jets v. Cincinnati Bengals -4 | 9-49 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Bengals on Sunday. Cincinnati owns the 8th stingiest run defense in the NFL and turning the Jets into a one-dimensional offense is going to thwart the Geno Smith passing game. Smith has a tough time reading pre-snap movement and Cincy does a solid job in mixing things up before the snap of the ball. While the team is 4-3 SU, Smith has 11 INTs and just 8 TD passes on the season. They have to be able to run the football to find consistent success and that's not going to be the case against the stout Bengal run defense. Offensively, QB Andy Dalton has been on fire the last two games throwing 6 TD passes with just 1 pick. He went 50-for-74, 68% passing the last two weeks and will face a good Jets' defense, but one that's off a big OT win over the Patriots last Sunday. The intensity level likely won't be as high as it was for "hated" New England. Finally, this is Cincy's lone home game over a five-game stretch and I expect them to make the most of it. The Bengals are 3-0 SU/ATS at home this season beating Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and New England. They're 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games, overall, and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams. I'm laying the points with the Bengals, my Sunday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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10-27-13 | Cleveland Browns +7.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Cleveland will be in A.B.W. mode on Sunday (Anyone But Weeden). The Browns were playing well with Brian Hoyer at QB winning three straight Hoyer starts. Unfortunately, he was lost for the season with a torn ACL in the third of the three straight wins. Since then Brandon Weeden has stunk up the joint. The Browns dropped back-to-back games to Detroit and Green Bay by a combined score of 62-30. Weeden completed just 50.6% of his pass attempts, averaging just 5.19 yards per pass with as many sacks as TD passes thrown (3) and he was sacked five times. Weeden takes forever to make decisions, which is why I have nicknamed him the "Human Rain Delay." Jason Campbell gets the start on Sunday and I expect Campbell to be able to consistently find TE Jordan Cameron in the passing game. Meanwhile, there is absolutely nothing wrong with the Cleveland defense which ranks 9th or better against the run, the pass, and in total yards allowed per game. That stingy defense will face a conservative KC offense that's without a deep passing game. It's Alex Smith's job to game-manage a ground game and a ball-control passing game. Kansas City has topped 24 points in just one of their four home games, scoring 31 against the Giants. But we should note they led the "G-men" just 17-7 with six minutes to go in the fourth quarter. I expect this contest to go right to the wire and we're getting over a TD. The Chiefs are just 4-10 ATS against teams with a losing SU record and I believe they're laying too many points again. I'm taking the points with the Browns on Sunday, my Underdog Crusher. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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10-27-13 | Buffalo Bills +11 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Buffalo is flying "under the radar" as far as the spread is concerned. The Bills are 3-4 SU on the season and only two of their seven games have been decided by more than three points. In fact, six of the seven games they've played have been decided by seven points or less and they're just a few plays away from at least two more wins. They're finally healthy again in the secondary and obviously that's of importance when facing Drew Brees and the New Orleans' offense. I also believe they're catching the Saints at the right time with New Orleans losing the heart-breaker to New England two weeks ago and coming off a bye this week. Momentum and offensive rhythm may be off just a touch and the Bills lead the league with 12 interceptions. I've also mentioned on my Las Vegas radio show that I'm not as crazy about Rob Ryan's defense as most. The Saints have not fared well against the run, allowing 114 yards per game on the ground on 5.06 yards per carry! The Bills may not have C.J. Spiller this week, but Fred Jackson is just fine, leading the team in yards rushing and in rushing TDs. The Bills are 5th in the NFL in yards rushing per game as a team and QB Thad Lewis has been taking care of the football as a solid game-manager. The under-valued Bills have covered six of their last eight games and I'm betting they'll do so again. I'm grabbing the points with the Bills on Sunday, my week-8 Tapout G.O.M.! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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10-27-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Detroit Lions -3 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Dallas is in a tough spot after beating division rivals Philadelphia and Washington the last two weeks, following their incredible shootout with Denver. This team has been playing peak-intensity football for three straight weeks and now they're in for a tough outing against the Lions' high-powered offense. Dallas ranks 30th against the pass and 29th in total yards per game allowed, overall. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson must be champing at the bit and Reggie Bush is now expected to play, also. Detroit's defense will face a one-dimensional Dallas offense, unable to run the football and only capable of passing most weeks. And yes, DeMarco Murray is probable, but I don't believe the ground game will get on track this week. This makes the job easier on the Detroit pass-rush and I expect a dominant effort in this one. Let's not forget that other than Kansas City's, the Dallas offense has faced a rather soft slate of "stop units" this season. Tough spot for the Cowboys in this one and they have covered just 6 of their last 21 off a SU win. Meanwhile, the Lions are 15-5-1 ATS after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game. Once they find their groove it normally carries over for at least one more week. I went against the Lions last weekend, but I'm on them this week. The Detroit Lions are my Blockbuster GOY. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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10-20-13 | Denver Broncos v. Indianapolis Colts +7 | Top | 33-39 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Colts on Sunday night after playing against the Colts and cashing last weekend. While the Broncos are getting some bodies back on defense I'm not looking for instant improvement. After all, it was Champ Bailey and a healthier defense that cost the Broncos in last year's playoffs against Baltimore. It's simply a case of a somewhat flawed defensive unit. Denver's "stop unit" ranks 32nd against the pass, 29th in total yards allowed, and 24th in points allowed. They're going to get a stern test against Andrew Luck and the very capable Colts' offense. Meanwhile, the Indy defense has been strong against the pass, ranking 5th in the NFL. And where it's most important...points allowed, the Colts give up just over 16 ppg, which ranks 4th in the league. Peyton Manning is operating behind a banged-up offensive line and will be hard-pressed to put up the crazy numbers he's posted so far this season. The Colts are 20-9-2 ATS against teams with a winning record and they're 9-1 ATS off their last 10 SU losses. I'm grabbing the points with the Colts on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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10-20-13 | Cleveland Browns +10 v. Green Bay Packers | 13-31 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. I'll grant you Brandon Weeden is no Brian Hoyer. But Weeden should be able to run a conservative, game-managing offense against a Packer defense that's banged-up at LB. Don't be surprised to see a successful afternoon out of Josh Gordon who could give the less than healthy Packer defense some trouble. Green Bay owns the league's 28th ranked pass defense. And speaking of injuries, the Packers are hurting at wideout. Aaron Rodgers lost Randall Cobb (knee) who has been placed on the IR and James Jones (shin) is expected to sit this one out, also. The banged-up Packer offense will face a Browns' defense that doesn't get their just due. Cleveland heads into Sunday ranked in the top-10 in yards rushing allowed, yards passing allowed, and total yards per game. I expect this one to be a much closer game than the number suggests. The Browns are a decent 11-5-1 ATS off a SU loss and they're on an 8-3 ATS run off a spread loss. They're undervalued again. I'm grabbing the points with the Browns, my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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10-20-13 | Baltimore Ravens +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 38 h 2 m | Show |
I'm backing the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. We cashed a big play with the Steelers in last week's 19-6 win over the NY Jets, but Pittsburgh was in the perfect spot going into that game. It was as much of a play against Geno Smith and the Jets as it was a play on the Steelers who had 2 weeks to prep for the rookie QB. But it's back to Pittsburgh's "new normal" this week. The injuries have taken their toll as has the poor offensive play-calling by the unpopular Todd Haley. It's been reported that at one point last week, Ben Roethlisberger even went to Haley on the sideline and told the OC not to call any more pass plays. Just run the ball and grind out the win. That's not going to work this week. Big Ben will want his team to attempt few passes in all likelihood. His patchwork offensive line faces a defense with 22 sacks on the season. Meanwhile, the Raven offense is getting healthy, especially at wide receiver. Add the running game to the mix with Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce and Joe Flacco should have all the weapons he needs to get back on track. We should note that the Pittsburgh defense had not produced a single takeaway on the season until last weekend and they're averaging just 1 sack per contest. Add it up and we have a comfortable Baltimore win in my opinion. The underdog is on an 8-3-2 ATS run in this series and the Ravens have covered four in a row off a spread loss. The Steelers are just 5-16-1 ATS off a SU win and they're 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven at home. I'm grabbing the points with the Ravens my AFC North GOY. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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10-20-13 | Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Bengals on Sunday. Andy Dalton had a bust-out performance last week on the road in Buffalo, leading his team to a 27-24 win. Having rookie RB Giovanni Bernard involved in the offense helps remove some of the pressure in the backfield off of Dalton. Bernard is "cool water" alleviating the problem that an injured BenJarvus Green-Ellis would have caused if he wasn't on the roster. Not only will Dalton and the offense have Bernard, but Green-Ellis is expected to be fine for this one, also. Detroit's offense isn't exactly fine. Calvin Johnson will be playing, but it has been reported that he's not 100% healthy. Limit Johnson and you limit the Lions' attack. I expect the Bengals' top-10 defense to hold the Lions in-check. Cincy has been "money" more often than not, currently on a 10-4-1 ATS run in their last 15 games, overall. They blew a big lead in the fourth quarter last weekend, but showed their grit with a 27-24 OT win on the road. This Sunday I'm betting they take care of business in regulation. I'm taking the points with the Bengals, my Underdog Crusher. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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10-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. San Diego Chargers +1.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
I'm backing the SDG Chargers on Monday night. I went against the Chargers last week and we cashed with the Oakland Raiders. Tonight, the Colts roll into town and I wouldn't be surprised if Indy is a little less focused than normal. The Colts are off their big win over Seattle and have a date with Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos next Sunday. Indianapolis was out-gained 423-317 by the Seahawks and as you may know by now, teams are 0-4 SU & ATS this season the week after playing the physical Seahawks. Not only have they dropped all four post-Seattle contests, but they have lost by an average of more than 21 ppg. SDG lost pass-rushing specialist and former Colt Dwight Freeney a couple weeks ago, but I expect others to pick-up the slack. This is a big game for the home team. A loss tonight and SDG would fall four games back of AFC West leading Denver and Kansas City. Philip Rivers has his "game" back and the "Bolts" are averaging 311 yards passing per game (3rd in the NFL) and I expect a strong effort tonight against an Indy. I also believe the Chargers will be able to run against the Colts' 30th ranked run defense. San Diego is on a 5-0 ATS run off a SU loss and I'm backing them tonight. The Chargers are my Monday Night Smackdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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10-13-13 | Washington Redskins +6 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. HC Mike Tomlin has gotten tough following Pittsburgh's loss in London. The team comes into this one winless, but Tomlin and DC Dick LeBeau ought to be "champing at the bit" to take their shots and operate their defensive game plan against Jets' rookie QB Geno Smith. Rex Ryan's signal caller led his team to a win over Atlanta last week, but that was against a Falcon team that had no pass rush. And in fact, the couple of times Atlanta used a Double A-Gap Blitz, Smith looked baffled and took the sack. Expect to see a lot of pre-snap movement from the Steeler defense taking advantage of Smith's poor reading skills. Offensively, it hasn't been pretty for the Steelers, but I do expect improvements in this one with the week off to devise schemes to move the sticks on a consistent basis. The offensive line will have a little different look to it and I expect the running game to find success. And while most are expected to play, the Jets are banged-up in the secondary which should lead to a decent game from Steeler WR Antonio Brown. Pittsburgh is on a 9-3 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record and I expect another win in this one. I'm backing the Steelers, my NFL Underdog Crusher. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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10-13-13 | St. Louis Rams v. Houston Texans -7.5 | Top | 38-13 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 13 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Texans on Sunday. Houston hit rock-bottom last week as did starting QB Matt Schaub, who keeps his job this week. HC Gary Kubiak made the right call in my opinion, announcing Schaub is the man behind center for the time being. I believe the Virginia alum will get "just what the doctor ordered" when the Rams roll into town. We'll get to the Rams in a moment. Houston may be 2-3 SU, but the schedule has been difficult. The Texans have faced improved San Diego and Tennessee teams, the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens, and two of the best teams in the NFL this season in Seattle and San Francisco. Yes, Schaub has had his problems with throwing key interceptions, but he's now facing a defense that ranks 29th against the run and 29th in points allowed giving up more than 28 ppg. Arian Foster could have a "field day" running the football against the Rams' porous defense and with Foster running well and a few carries here & there for Ben Tate, I expect the passing lanes to part like the Red Sea. When the Rams' secondary becomes worried about helping out against the run, Andre Johnson and the talented Houston receiving corps should do damage. Defensively, Houston is #1 against the pass and #1 in total yards per game. The one spot they have struggled is defending the run. But the running game is non-existent for the Rams, who're averaging just 66.4 yards rushing per game (30th in the NFL). While Foster should have a big day on offense for Houston, the Texans' pass rush, led by J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus should fare well, also. The Rams are just what the Texans need in order to snap back in the win column and I'm on them. I'm laying the points with Houston on Sunday, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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10-03-13 | Buffalo Bills v. Cleveland Browns -3.5 | Top | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night. The Bills are a banged-up football team on defense with as many as three starters potentially missing from the secondary. The offense is limited with E.J. Manuel at QB and the unit has their share of injuries, especially at RB where C.J. Spiller is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Developing a game plan on a short week with a banged-up secondary and bruised offense is going to be a tough task for Bills' HC Doug Marrone. Cleveland heads into this one on a 2-game win streak since trading RB Trent Richardson to Indianapolis. I stated on my daily radio show that I didn't believe it was much of a loss for the Browns...at least not as big as some would lead you to believe. His style didn't fit their system. Add in much better QB play with Brian Hoyer behind center and the Browns are playing a decent brand of winning football...in better shape than tonight's "guests." Buffalo, with their injuries are likely to have a tough time defending the Browns' up-and-coming passing game, led by TE Jordan Cameron. The Bills head into this one having covered just 7 of their last 27 following a SU win. They're also 1-9 ATS on the road after a home game, out-scored by an average of 17 ppg. I'm laying the points with the Browns on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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09-30-13 | Miami Dolphins +7 v. New Orleans Saints | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Miami on Monday night. I believe we'll be in the minority when it comes to backing to road underdog tonight, but Miami has been tremendous in this spot. While all the talk has been on New Orleans' numbers at home with Sean Payton at the helm, the Dolphins enter on a 27-9 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record and they're on a 21-10-1 ATS run on the road, overall. Their 3-0 mark also looks better by the week. Not only has Miami handled the Colts in Indy and the Atlanta Falcons, but the win in Cleveland over the Browns looks better after Cleveland won back-to-back games, including yesterday's 17-6 win over Cincy. The Dolphins will face a New Orleans' offense that's a bit one-dimensional. The Saints are averaging just 85.7 yards rushing per game on 3.5 yards per carry. At the same time, Rob Ryan's new-look 3-4 defense is getting a lot of credit, but the fact is, they're nothing special against the run where they're allowing 111 yards per game on a hefty 5.3 yards rushing per attempt. I do believe the Dolphins will be able to find enough room on the ground to keep the Saints honest when it's time for Ryan Tannehill to go up top. Tannehill, by the way, owns a better QB rating than Drew Brees through three weeks. Brees has a so-so TD-INT ratio thus far, with 6 passing TDs but 4 INTs. The Dolphin defense will be able to take their chances and I believe they will find success. I'm betting this one will be closer than expected and I'm taking the points with the Miami Dolphins on Monday night. Thanks & GL! - Scott Spreitzer.
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09-29-13 | New England Patriots v. Atlanta Falcons -2.5 | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night. Atlanta has had the tougher of the schedule thus far, already facing New Orleans & Miami on the road and losing both. Obviously, the 1-2 start makes this a much more important game for the Falcons than it is for the 3-0 Patriots. But this handicap goes way beyond that. New England has faced a pair of rookie QBs (E.J. Manuel & Geno Smith), along with Tampa Bay "reject" Josh Freeman. Despite facing three anemic passing attacks, New England has still been smacked at the point of contact, allowing nearly 121 yards rushing per game (24th) on 4.1 yards per carry. That's not a good sign and I believe the Falcons, averaging 4.5 yards per carry this season, will be able to run the football opening things up for Matt Schaub, a huge step up in level of competition for the Patriots. The Falcons are also in bounce-back mode and they're on a 21-3 ATS run off a SU loss. They're also 8-1 ATS in September home games under HC Mike Smith. I'm laying the short number with the Falcons on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! - Scott Spreitzer.
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09-29-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Houston Texans +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Texans on Sunday. Seattle has been the best team in football so far this season and we have cashed two in a row in games involving the Seahawks. This week, I'm playing against them and backing Houston. I don't want to take anything away from Seattle, but whipping Jacksonville doesn't mean a whole lot, and even the win over San Francisco doesn't look as "shiny" as it did the day of the game. The 49ers, after all, looked no better against the Indianapolis Colts. This is a very good Seahawk team, obviously, but they're not the same away from home and they're a little over-valued in a meeting on the road against a Super Bowl contender. The Seahawks had no running game in their only road game to date, a 12-7 win over Carolina. The Seahawks averaged less than 3 yards per carry on 26 attempts. They'll face one of the stingier run defenses in the NFL...and the second ranked unit in total yards allowed, overall. In fact, Houston allows just 3.3 yards per carry, even better than Seattle's run defense that allows 4 yards per pop. Add in the matchup advantages that J.J. Watt and LB Brian Cushing create and I believe Russell Wilson will be under consistent pressure throughout this one. Offensively, Matt Schaub is in bounce-back mode after last week's loss in Baltimore and he expects to have WR Andre Johnson back on the field (probable). Houston has done a nice job of rebounding, going 4-1-1 ATS following a SU loss, overall, and they're on a 6-0 ATS run if they're at home following at least one loss, out-scoring the six opponents by a 27-14 average. And finally, the Texans are on an 8-1 ATS run the last three seasons with a +3/-3 line range. I'm backing the Houston Texans on Sunday, my Tapout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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09-22-13 | Detroit Lions v. Washington Redskins +1 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Washington Redskins on Sunday. The over-valued Lions should be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Redskins to gain their first win of the season. Detroit's back-seven is susceptible to "read-option," and for the first time this season I expect to see plenty of it from the Skins. RG-3 has been pampered through the first two games of the season...very little "read-option" play-calls as he got himself into game shape. This week, Griffin III says that if the team needs him to run more often, he's ready to do it. We also know that at this point, if the Skins are struggling at all on offense, Mike Shanahan won't hesitate to insert Kirk Cousins...with a 0-3 start staring them in the face. Washington's attack unit gets the matchup against the undisciplined, penalty-happy Lions, who just watched Arizona's offense control the tempo with 24 first downs a week ago. I expect Washington to pick apart the Detroit LBs and secondary. Reggie Bush is expected to play (Knee) for the Lions, but with the Washington offense controlling things, I expect the defense to pick up the slack, also. Detroit closed last season losing their final eight games. Teams that closed the previous season losing at least three straight games are 10-33 ATS if they're off a road loss in the first month of the season and the line range is +3/-3. I expect Washington to land one in the win column and I'm backing the Redskins on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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Scott Spreitzer NFL Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-23-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks -7 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
11-16-14 | New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 42-20 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Philadelphia Eagles -7 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
11-09-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
11-06-14 | Cleveland Browns +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
11-02-14 | Baltimore Ravens -1 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 23-43 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
11-02-14 | Denver Broncos -3 v. New England Patriots | Top | 21-43 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
11-02-14 | NY Jets +10 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 10-24 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
10-27-14 | Washington Redskins +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
10-26-14 | Green Bay Packers v. New Orleans Saints -1 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
10-26-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Kansas City Chiefs -7 | 7-34 | Win | 102 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
10-26-14 | Chicago Bears +7 v. New England Patriots | 23-51 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
10-23-14 | San Diego Chargers +9 v. Denver Broncos | 21-35 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
10-20-14 | Houston Texans +3.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 23-30 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
10-19-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 v. San Diego Chargers | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
10-19-14 | Seattle Seahawks -6 v. St. Louis Rams | 26-28 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
10-19-14 | New Orleans Saints +2.5 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
10-16-14 | NY Jets +10 v. New England Patriots | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
10-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +7.5 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
10-12-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Miami Dolphins +3.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
10-12-14 | Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
10-12-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
10-09-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans +3 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -124 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
10-06-14 | Seattle Seahawks -7 v. Washington Redskins | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
10-05-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. New England Patriots | 17-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
10-05-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
10-05-14 | Buffalo Bills +7 v. Detroit Lions | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
10-05-14 | Atlanta Falcons +4 v. NY Giants | 20-30 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
09-29-14 | New England Patriots v. Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
09-28-14 | Tennessee Titans +8 v. Indianapolis Colts | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
09-28-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
09-28-14 | Green Bay Packers -1.5 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
09-21-14 | Denver Broncos +5.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
09-21-14 | Tennessee Titans +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 7-33 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
09-21-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Buffalo Bills -2 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
09-15-14 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
09-14-14 | Chicago Bears +7.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
09-14-14 | NY Jets v. Green Bay Packers -7.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
09-14-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Diego Chargers +6 | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
09-11-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. Baltimore Ravens | 6-26 | Loss | -140 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
09-08-14 | San Diego Chargers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
09-07-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
09-07-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -120 | 71 h 16 m | Show |
09-07-14 | Washington Redskins v. Houston Texans -3 | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers +6 v. Seattle Seahawks | 16-36 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 66 h 34 m | Show |
01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks -3 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 135 h 16 m | Show |
01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos -8 | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 22-43 | Win | 100 | 61 h 23 m | Show |
01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
01-04-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +1 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 44-45 | Push | 0 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
12-29-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys +7 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
12-29-13 | Kansas City Chiefs +9.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
12-22-13 | New England Patriots +2 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
12-22-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Cincinnati Bengals -8 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
12-15-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
12-15-13 | Arizona Cardinals v. Tennessee Titans +3 | Top | 37-34 | Push | 0 | 36 h 21 m | Show |
12-15-13 | New England Patriots v. Miami Dolphins +1.5 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
12-09-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears +1.5 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
12-08-13 | Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints -3 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
12-08-13 | Tennessee Titans +13 v. Denver Broncos | 28-51 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
12-08-13 | Oakland Raiders v. NY Jets -3 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
12-01-13 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +1.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
12-01-13 | Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. San Diego Chargers | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
12-01-13 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs +6.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
11-28-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | Top | 20-22 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
11-28-13 | Oakland Raiders +9 v. Dallas Cowboys | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
11-24-13 | Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots +2.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
11-24-13 | Tennessee Titans -1 v. Oakland Raiders | 23-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
11-24-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals -3 | Top | 11-40 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
11-21-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +9.5 | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
11-18-13 | New England Patriots +3 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
11-17-13 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
11-17-13 | Cleveland Browns v. Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
11-11-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
11-10-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -6 | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
11-10-13 | Buffalo Bills +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
11-10-13 | St. Louis Rams +10 v. Indianapolis Colts | 38-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
11-10-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -111 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
11-10-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons +4.5 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
11-03-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans +2.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
11-03-13 | New Orleans Saints v. NY Jets +6.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
11-03-13 | Minnesota Vikings +10 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
10-31-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Miami Dolphins +3 | Top | 20-22 | Win | 105 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
10-27-13 | NY Jets v. Cincinnati Bengals -4 | 9-49 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
10-27-13 | Cleveland Browns +7.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
10-27-13 | Buffalo Bills +11 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
10-27-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Detroit Lions -3 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
10-20-13 | Denver Broncos v. Indianapolis Colts +7 | Top | 33-39 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
10-20-13 | Cleveland Browns +10 v. Green Bay Packers | 13-31 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
10-20-13 | Baltimore Ravens +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 38 h 2 m | Show |
10-20-13 | Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
10-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. San Diego Chargers +1.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
10-13-13 | Washington Redskins +6 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
10-13-13 | St. Louis Rams v. Houston Texans -7.5 | Top | 38-13 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 13 m | Show |
10-03-13 | Buffalo Bills v. Cleveland Browns -3.5 | Top | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
09-30-13 | Miami Dolphins +7 v. New Orleans Saints | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
09-29-13 | New England Patriots v. Atlanta Falcons -2.5 | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
09-29-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Houston Texans +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
09-22-13 | Detroit Lions v. Washington Redskins +1 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 20 m | Show |