Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-01-16 | Rangers +101 v. Indians | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
I'm backing the Texas Rangers on Wednesday. The Rangers are 18-4 in Cole Hamels' 22 starts, but he did lose last time out and didn't look too hot in the process. I do believe Hamels bounces back here though. The left-hander has been tremendous on the road, currently 3-0 in four starts, while owning a sizzling, 1.63 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and a .190 BAA. He'll face a Cleveland squad that's lost three in a row and four of their last at home. Indians' pitching has allowed 32 runs in their last five home games. Trevor Bauer will likely have to pitch better than normal, because I suspect the Indian bats will not push across a lot of runs against Hamels. However, Bauer has seen his ERA rise from 3.86 to 4.34 over his last three starts after allowing 10 earned runs in 17 2/3 IP. He's also allowed a whopping 28 base runners, including 22 hits, during that span for a 1.58 WHIP. Cleveland is 1-5 in the right-hander's last six starts against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, besides the 18-4 mark mentioned above, the Rangers are 8-2 in his last 10 road starts. I'm backing the Texas Rangers, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-31-16 | White Sox v. Mets -160 | 6-4 | Loss | -160 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm backing the NY Mets on Tuesday night. The White Sox have hit the skids, losers of seven straight as they head into Tuesday's action. Facing Steven Matz is not exactly the best way to right the ship. Matz has allowed just six earned runs and 41 base runners in his last seven starts, spanning 48 IP. That's a sizzling 1.13 ERA & 0.85 WHIP, to go along with 49 strikeouts and just seven walks. In fact, the left-hander has awarded just two free passes in his last 28 2/3 IP. He'll face a White Sox lineup that has scored just 22 runs during the seven game skid, while ranking 26th, 28th, and 28th, in team batting average, OBP, and OPS. And if & when Matz departs, the struggling Sox will face the league's 5th stingiest bullpen ERA. Mat Latos counters for the Sox. The right-hander has allowed 21 earned runs, 52 base runners, and seven home runs in his last five starts, spanning 26 2/3 IP. That's a 7.08 ERA & 1.95 WHIP, with a 2.36 HRs/9 IP ratio. Besides the 0-7 slide, the Sox are just 2-8 in their last 10 IL road games against left-handers. Meanwhile, the Mets are on a 7-0 run with Matz, and they're on a 10-3 run at home against right-handed starting pitchers. I'm backing the NY Mets, my Heavy Hitter. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-30-16 | Dodgers v. Cubs -138 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
I'm backing the Chicago Cubs on Monday. The Dodgers finished up well in New York over the weekend, but I expect them to struggle on Monday at Wrigley. Alex Wood starts for L.A., and he has not fared well in five road starts this season. Wood is 0-3 with a 6.84 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and .292 BAA, and the Dodgers are 1-4 in those outings. In fact, they're 1-6 in his last seven road starts going back to last season. The left-hander has also been dealing with a nagging triceps injury. Wood will face a Cubs' lineup that's once again on fire, and led by red-hot Ben Zobrist, who's batting .463 in his last 22 games. The Cubs are on an 8-2 run against southpaws and they rank 2nd and 7th in OBP and OPS against lefties. Chicago has won Jason Hammel's first three home starts in 2016, by a combined score of 25-10. Hammel owns a 2.04 ERA in the three outings. The Chicago righty held the Dodgers to a .140 BAA, while earning a 2.13 ERA in two starts against them last season. I'm backing the Cubs, my Daytime Knockout on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-29-16 | Red Sox -134 v. Blue Jays | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
I'm backing the Boston Red Sox on Sunday. A loss here and the Sox would suffer their first four-game losing streak of the season. But they couldn't have asked for a better matchup. David Price takes the mound for Boston and he has amassed more wins against the Blue Jays than any team he's faced in his career. Price is 17-2 in 22 starts against Toronto, sporting a 2.42 ERA. In fact, he's a perfect 8-0 in his last 10 starts against them. The Boston left-hander and former Blue Jay has enjoyed his starts at Rogers Centre, going 11-1 in 12 decisions with a 3.34 ERA. I also expect offensive support for Price. Xander Bogaerts is on fire, sporting a 21-game hitting streak. Bogaerts is hitting .364 in 33 at-bats against Toronto starter, R.A. Dickey, to go along with a .976 OPS. David Ortiz is hitting .286 against Dickey, and Mookie Betts has smacked the knuckleballer for a .310 batting average in 29 at-bats. The three have combined to hit 4 HRs and drive in 17 RBI against Dickey. We should note that Boston has beaten Toronto twice this season with Dickey on the mound and he's 0-5 in his last eight starts against the Sox, saddled with a 5.21 ERA. Dickey is 0-4 with a 5.64 ERA in five home starts this season. (The three 100% situations combine for 17-0 spots). Toronto is 1-8 in the right-hander's last nine starts this season, outscored by an average of 5.2 to 2.4. I'm backing the Boston Red Sox, my Sunday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-28-16 | Dodgers v. Mets -159 | 9-1 | Loss | -159 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm backing the NY Mets, my Heavy Hitter on Saturday night. Noah Syndergaard is once again on fire, winning three straight starts and punching-out 27 batters in 22 innings. He's not allowed a single earned run in his last 18 innings of work and slammed the door on the Dodgers in a meeting on May 11. The Dodgers enter with a .240 team batting average and the Mets are a perfect 9-0 when Syndergaard starts against teams hitting .250 or worse, holding the nine opponents to an average of 1 rpg. If "Thor" has to leave the game, we expect him to exit late in the contest and give way to the bullpen with the stingiest ERA in MLB (2.36). The Mets will face Kenta Maeda, who has hit the skids a bit after a great start to the season. Maeda is 0-3 in his last five starts with a 6.07 ERA, getting tagged for 18 earned runs in 26 2/3 IP. His team has won just 2 of their last 14 on the road against teams playing better than .600 home baseball. The Mets fit the bill. I'm playing the NY Mets, my Heavy Hitter on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-25-16 | Indians v. White Sox -110 | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday afternoon. Corey Kluber has been inconsistent since the start of the 2015 season, so when he has a decent outing, we know not to overreact. Do so a couple of times in a row, like three or four consecutive starts and we might jump on board. The fact is, his team has won just three of his last 11 road starts against teams with a winning record, and they're on a 0-4 slide when he starts at U.S. Cellular. Kluber has been roughed-up by Jose Abreu & Melky Cabrera. Abreu has a .357 average with three homers and seven RBI in his 28 at-bats against the righty, while Cabrera owns a .474 batting average in his last 19 at-bats against Kluber. Jose Quintana has been the mark of consistency for a while, now. The White Sox left-hander has a stingy 1.80 ERA in 14 starts since early September of last season. He's also posted a 2.80 ERA & 1.19 WHIP in a dozen starts against the Indians. Finally, the Sox are on a 21-6 winning run as a favorite of -110 or higher, with an average margin of 2 rpg. I'm backing the White Sox, my Daytime Dominator on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-25-16 | Cubs -160 v. Cardinals | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm laying a bigger price here than normal, but I feel the Cubs are priced too low. Jake Arrieta has posted a 0.86 ERA over his last 22 starts and Chicago has won each and every one. The right-hander is 16-0 in his last 20 road starts, and owns sparkling numbers in his career against the Redbirds. Chicago finally broke out of a bit of a scoring drought yesterday, putting 12 runs on the board. As a team, they rank 8th, 1st, and 3rd, in road team batting average, OBP, and OPS. And Ben Zobrist has been lighting things up at the plate, carrying an 11-game hitting streak into Wednesday. The Cards have dropped four straight Carlos Martinez starts. The right-hander has not been the same since some off-field troubles, roughly four weeks ago, and after being pulled in a May 6 start against Pittsburgh, for what was determined to be fatigue. His ERA is a hefty 5.85 in those four outings, and Martinez has walked nine batters, while striking out just seven in his last three starts. Besides the 0-4 slide, the Cards are just 2-9 in their last 11 against teams playing better than .600 baseball. I'm backing the Cubs, my daytime Heavy Hitter. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-23-16 | A's +116 v. Mariners | 5-0 | Win | 116 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Oakland A's on Monday night. We feel we have a big pitching advantage in this one with the A's sending Rich Hill to the mound to counter Seattle's Taijuan Walker. Oakland may be 19-26 on the season, but they're 6-3 when Hill toes the rubber and the A's are on a 5-0 run when he starts on the road. The left-hander owns a sizzling 1.76 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a .168 BAA in those five starts, while allowing just one HR and striking out 40 batters in 30 2/3 IP. Seattle right-hander Taijuan Walker has not looked good over the last four starts, lasting a grand total of just 17 2/3 innings. Walker has allowed 10 earned runs and 24 base runners in those outings, and he's been popped for five home runs in his last 12 2/3 IP. Oakland has crushed Walker in three starts against him, and the Mariners enter on a 9-18 slide, while averaging a paltry 2.8 rpg in their last 27 at home as a PK to minus-125 favorite. Seattle is also playing their first home game following a six-game, six-day road trip. The A's are on a 5-1 run in their last six at SAFECO and we're backing them here. I'm playing Oakland, my Monday Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-22-16 | Cubs v. Giants -121 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm backing the SF Giants on Sunday night. The Cubs may own the best record in baseball, but the Giants have been the much hotter team of late. While SFO has won nine of their last 10 games, allowing just 25 runs along the way, the Cubs have dropped six of their last 10, scoring a total of just 13 runs in the six defeats. We noted on our twitter account the other day that pitchers who have it in their repertoire are throwing plenty of curveballs and other breaking stuff for strikes against Chicago, aiming to keep Cub batters off balance. And while tonight's opposing pitcher, Madison Bumgarner, has a fantastic fourseamer, he also owns a serious cutter that draws more swing-and-miss strikes than most, and the lefty also has a wicked, swing-and-miss inducing curveball. "Mad-Bum" owns a 2.44 ERA & 1.09 WHIP in 10 starts against Chicago, and he's on a heater, allowing two or fewer runs in each of his last six starts. The Giants are on a 5-0 run when he takes the mound. We should also note that Chicago does strand their share of base runners, and SFO is on a 23-6 run against teams that strand at least 7.5 runners per game. Kyle Hendricks owns decent overall numbers on the season, but he's struggled in two of his three road starts in 2016, getting knocked around for eight earned runs, 16 base runners, and two homers in 10 2/3 IP combined against the Brewers & Cardinals. I'm backing the Giants as they look to extend their run to 10-1. SFO is my Sunday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-21-16 | Royals -110 v. White Sox | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
I'm backing the KC Royals on Saturday afternoon as the defending champs continue to climb the AL Central standings. KC has won four of their last five, allowing just 14 runs along the way. And after last night's 4-1 win, the Royals are now 22-7 in their last 29 games at U.S. Cellular Field. Danny Duffy will start tonight for Ned Yost. The lefty owns sizzling numbers on the season, making 17 appearances. This will be his second straight start and his second of the season, overall. Duffy was on a 45-pitch limit in his first start and pitched well against the Braves, tossing 48 pitches. He'll reportedly be on a 60-pitch limit today, and while it's likely we'll see an earlier exit than normal from a starter, we also have MLB's third stingiest bullpen to take this one home. Duffy has a 1.24 WHIP in nine starts against the Sox, by the way. Chicago will counter with Miguel Gonzalez. The former Oriole righty has struggled in three starts with the Sox, and has a 1.40 WHIP in five starts against KC. In fact, if you include his final 14 starts of last season with Baltimore and his first three starts with his new team, Gonzalez has been smacked for a 6.29 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and 1.51 HRs / 9 IP. The White Sox enter on a 1-5 slide in their last six games, scoring less than 3 rpg, and they have dropped four straight against left-handed starters. We'll back the Royals, our Daytime Dominator on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-20-16 | Mariners -128 v. Reds | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
I'm backing the Seattle Mariners on Friday night. The Cincinnati Reds are struggling badly as they return home and I doubt they'll find the sweet elixir against the AL's best road team. Cincy starting pitcher Dan Straily may have to take one for the team tonight. The Reds' bullpen, which ranks dead last in MLB in ERA has been quite busy, throwing a combined 19 2/3 innings during their just completed four game series with Cleveland. The Indians smacked Reds' relievers for 19 earned runs and 40 base runners, for an 8.68 ERA & 2.03 WHIP. And, as reported, the Reds' pen has allowed 28 home runs in the 7th inning or later, already this season. Straily has had no luck against the Mariners over the last three seasons, saddled with a 6.20 ERA in four starts. Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma could use a win and we believe he'll get one tonight, or at least put his team in position to win. Iwakuma has been at his best in NL parks since coming into the league, posting a 1.33 ERA & 0.89 WHIP in four starts. This marks his first career start against the Reds. Cincy enters on a four-game losing skid and they've lost seven of their last eight, overall. They have won just seven of their last 29 IL games. Meanwhile, Seattle 16-5 in Iwakuma's last 21 road starts against teams with a losing record. I'm backing the Seattle Mariners, my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-15-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -134 | 2-1 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday. Matt Cain finally saw a little light in his last start, but I'm not buying unless I see two to three solid starts from the right-hander. Cain is pitching in a ballpark with the third highest OPS in MLB, which doesn't bode well, considering he has a 1.61 HRs/9 IP ratio. Arizona enters on a 19-4 run, averaging 5.7 rpg against starting pitchers who allow at least one HR per start on average. Cain does just that. And SFO has allowed 5.2 rpg in his last 33 starts, overall. Arizona has had little trouble with Cain in his last three starts against them, tagging the righty for a 5.51 ERA & 1.77 WHIP. Rubby De La Rosa toes the rubber for the "Snakes" today and the right-hander has allowed just three earned runs and 26 base runners in his last three against SFO, spanning 20 1/3 IP. And finally, while Arizona is on a 7-1 run when De La Rosa pitches on four days rest, the Giants are 0-6 when Cain does the same. I'm backing the Diamondbacks, my Afternoon Annihilator on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-15-16 | Mets -140 v. Rockies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
I'm backing the NY Mets over the Rockies on Sunday. Big pitching advantage for the Mets on paper and I'm betting it will translate onto the diamond. Tyler Chatwood has been an absolute disaster at home so far this season, 0-3 in three starts, allowing 14 earned runs, 30 base runners, and five home runs in 16 IP, with a hefty .348 BAA. His team is 0-4 in his last four home starts going back to last season. The Mets will counter with Jacob deGrom. The right-hander has posted ridiculously strong numbers in daytime outings, including a 1.25 ERA & 0.92 WHIP in 21 starts. He's 13-2 in those outings, allowing just 0.26 HRs per 9 IP, while punching out 9.77 batters per 9 IP. The Mets are on a 9-1 run in his last 10 daytime starts, winning by an average score of 4.7 to 1.8. And finally, deGrom has had no trouble at all in two starts against the Rockies. I'm backing the NY Mets, my Mismatch release on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-13-16 | Angels v. Mariners -150 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -150 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
I'm backing the Seattle Mariners on Friday night. We went against the Angels last night and cashed when the Cardinals piled-up 12 runs on Angel pitching. We went against Jered Weaver and got what we thought we would. We'll now go against Nick Tropeano, who has failed to complete six full innings in any of his six starts this season. Tropeano has allowed six homers in his last three starts, spanning just 15 2/3 IP, and he's walked 13 batters in his last 21 innings of work, an average of nearly 5.6 walks per 9 IP. Nathan Karns has helped his team to five straight wins in his last five starts, and he's allowed just four earned runs and 20 base runners in his last three starts, spanning 19 1/3 IP. That's a 1.87 ERA & 1.04 WHIP. We have starting pitchers headed in the opposite direction, as far as we're concerned. We also get the better team to go along with the starting pitcher in better current form. Seattle has won three straight to move into first in the AL West, while the Angels have dropped six straight to fall into last place in the same division. The Angels are on a 4-19 slide as a money line road dog in a line range that includes today's price. I'm backing the Seattle Mariners, my Friday night Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-13-16 | Mets -112 v. Rockies | 2-5 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm backing the NY Mets on Friday night. The Mets have owned the Rockies, winning 15 of the last 18 meetings, including four straight at Coors Field. Matt Harvey looks to go deeper in this one and faces a team he's personally owned, posting a 0.39 ERA in three starts against Colorado. This will be his first at Coors and I trust he will make the necessary adjustments. I don't trust Colorado hurler Jon Gray, who's winless in 13 major league starts. Gray has pitched well on the road, but he has been horrible at home where he has been saddled with a 9.22 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, and a 1.54 HRs/9 IP ratio in seven career starts. Gray allowed a .391 BAA in five home starts last season and his BAA is an even higher .400 in two home starts in 2016. Colorado has allowed 58 runs in Gray's seven home outings. The Rockies enter on a 1-7 slide at home and they're also 1-7 in Gray's last eight against teams with a winning record. Toss in the league's 28th ranked bullpen ERA and we expect the Mets to score their share of runs. Meanwhile, when Harvey departs, we'll have the 3rd ranked pen on our side. NY enters on a 23-8 run on the road against teams with a losing record and we'll back them here. The NY Mets are my Friday Mismatch. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-12-16 | Cardinals -133 v. Angels | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm backing the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday night. I've watched each of Adam Wainwright's last two starts and have seen him regaining his mojo. The right-hander may not be a finished product just yet, but his curveball was tremendous last time out, virtually completing his repertoire. Wainwright should receive enough offensive support from a Cardinal lineup that ranks 5th, 3rd, and 1st, on the road in team batting average, OBP, and OPS. The Cards will face Jered Weaver, who has had his moments this season, including his last outing. But Weaver has no true speed pitch to complement his changeup and I expect the Redbirds to eventually get to the right-hander. When Weaver has pitched well, he's been just an inch away from disaster, sans his most recent start. Before his outing against Tampa Bay, Weaver had allowed 11 runs, 20 hits, and four walks in his previous 11 innings. I do believe we'll see more of that Weaver than the one we saw against the Rays. The Halos enter on a five-game losing streak and they're on a 0-10 slide the last two seasons against NL starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.50 or less. Meanwhile, the Cardinals enter on a 5-0 IL run. I'm backing the Cardinals on Thursday, my Situational Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-11-16 | Indians -110 v. Astros | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday afternoon. The Indians got back in the win column last night and I expect another win today. We've played Danny Salazar successfully this season and he's been nothing but successful, himself. Salazar owns a 1.91 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and .142 BAA in six starts this season, while allowing just one long-ball in 37 2/3 IP. The right-hander is red-hot, posting a 17:3 K:BB ratio in his last two starts. The Tribe are on a 9-3 road run against teams with a losing record when Salazar starts, and they have won 17 of their last 22 against Houston. The Astros will counter with Doug Fister, who has just 13 Ks with 12 walks in his last five starts. Fister will likely need some run support here, but the Astros are so-so against righties, and Salazar is a tough nut to crack. We'll back the Cleveland Indians, my Afternoon Annihilator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-11-16 | White Sox v. Rangers -131 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
I'm backing the Texas Rangers on Wednesday afternoon. Mat Latos start 2016 in terrific fashion, but he's hit the skids of late, allowing eight earned runs, 21 base runners, and three homers in his last two starts, lasting a total of just 10 IP. Chicago won both games, but only because of their own red-hot work at the plate, scoring 10 runs in one contest and eight in the other. I highly doubt Latos will get much run support on Wednesday. Texas will counter with Cole Hamels. The lefty has won 11 straight decisions and his team is 15-1 in his last 16 starts. Meanwhile, Texas ranks 10th, 11th, and 11th, in home team batting average, OBP, and OPS, respectively. The Sox have won just 24 of their last 77 road games against teams playing better than .600 home baseball. I'm backing the Texas Rangers, my Daytime Dominator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-10-16 | Blue Jays -126 v. Giants | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Blue Jays on Tuesday night. Another chance to go against badly struggling Matt Cain. The Giants' right-hander began struggling in 2015 and he hasn't turned it around. In fact, he's suffering his worst start to a season in his career. Cain has been tagged for a 7.84 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and a .341 BAA in six starts. And the Giants have allowed an average of 5.3 rpg in Cain's last 32 starts, overall. With SFO's 22nd ranked bullpen ERA, this road stop could be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Jays, who won last night's series opener, 3 to 1. While the Giants are 0-5 when Cain throws on four days rest, the Jays are 5-1 when J.A. Happ throws on four days rest. He owns a sizzling 2.50 ERA & 1.18 WHIP in six starts this season. Happ is 6-0 in his last nine starts, going back to last season, sporting a 2.21 ERA. And the lefty has allowed three runs or less in 16 straight starts. AL road favorites are on a 69-24 winning run if their OBP is no higher than .320, but the opposing pitcher has an ERA of 7.00 or higher in his last three starts. These pitchers have been the "sweet elixir" for struggling offenses and we expect more of the same tonight. We'll back the Toronto Blue Jays, our MLB Tuesday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-09-16 | Mets -114 v. Dodgers | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm backing the NY Mets on Monday night. Steven Matz can't miss and the Dodgers can't hit at Chavez Ravine. Los Angeles has a .199 team batting average in home games this season and I doubt they'll find the "sweet elixir" against Matz. The Mets' left-hander has a smoking-hot 0.67 ERA in his last four starts, while allowing just 26 base runners in 27 innings of work. And Matz owns a fantastic 29:5 K/BB ratio in those outings. When and if Matz departs, he's backed by a bullpen with MLB's 4th stingiest ERA. Offensively, the Mets rank 12th, 8th, and 2nd, in road batting average, OBP, and OPS. Yoenis Cespedes is on a serious heater with six homers and 16 RBI in his last 11 games. That's what Scott Kazmir has in store for him tonight when he takes the hill. The Dodgers are 1-4 in his last five starts and the lefty has been smacked for 20 earned runs, 42 base runners, and seven homeruns in 25 2/3 IP. That's a 7.00 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and a 2.45 HRs/9 IP ratio. His WHIP jumps to 1.90 at home this season to go along with a .326 BAA. New York enters on a 38-16 run on the road, including a 10-5 mark this season. They're on a 5-0 road run when Matz toes the rubber, and New York is 15-5 in their last 20 games, overall. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have dropped six of their last seven at home. I'm backing the Mets, my Monday Mismatch. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-08-16 | Diamondbacks -136 v. Braves | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday as they aim for a three-game sweep in Atlanta. Patrick Corbin pitched well last season following a year off while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He's been up and down so far in 2016 and one of his problems has been the long ball. But Corbin should be getting "just what the doctor ordered" in Sunday's start. The Braves have hit just seven home runs in 29 games on the season and they're 1-14 in 15 home contests. The Arizona lefty has two career starts against the Braves, holding them scoreless, while allowing just 14 base runners and a .136 BAA in 13 2/3 IP. Corbin has been at his best on the road this season, sporting a 2.50 ERA & 1.22 WHIP in three starts. In fact, he's allowed just one of those homers in 18 road innings. Atlanta counters with Mike Foltynewicz. The young right-hander was pounded for a 5.71 ERA and 1.77 HRs/9 IP in 18 appearances last season. He didn't look much better in his lone start this season, getting yanked after making 98 pitches just to get through 3 2/3 IP against the Mets. The D-backs lit up the righty for 10 earned runs, 20 base runners, and a .370 batting average in 10 1/3 innings against him in two starts. Foltynewicz likely won't get much run support from an offense that can't hit southpaws, ranked 29th, 29th, and 30th, in team batting average, OBP, and OPS. His team has dropped his last four starts. Arizona heads into this one on a 6-0 run when Corbin toes the road rubber against sub-.500 opponents. I'm backing the Diamondbacks, my Perfect-10. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-07-16 | Rays -123 v. Angels | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday night. Jered Weaver looks completely gassed. With an extremely low velocity fastball, Weaver has been relying on his changeup. He escaped against KC a couple of starts ago, serving up seven extra base hits, but benefiting from a ton of offensive support. Last time out, Weaver hit the skids midway through the game. He's now allowed 11 earned runs and 24 base runners in his last 11 IP, to go along with a .325 BAA. Weaver will face a Tampa lineup that ranks 8th in MLB in road OBP & OPS, and 6th in slugging. Meanwhile, Jake Odorizzi has been terrific in his last two outings. Tampa is on a 19-8 run in Anaheim after winning last night's season opener, and they're on a 5-0 run in Anaheim when facing Weaver. Another chance to go against the fading Angel hurler. We're backing the Tampa Bay Rays, my Saturday Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-07-16 | Rangers -126 v. Tigers | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
I'm backing the Texas Rangers on Saturday afternoon. We have a big time pitching mismatch on paper in this one and we expect it to translate onto the field. Texas will send A.J. Griffin to the mound. The Rangers "took a flier" on the right-hander in the off-season and he's been outstanding so far, pitching for the first time since the 2013 season. Griffin has allowed just five earned runs in his last four starts and on the season (five starts, overall) he's posted sizzling hot numbers, including a 2.32 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a .180 BAA. The former A's hurler has punched-out 20 batters in his last 20 IP and his three road starts have been nearly as hot. Griffin, as reported, is firing an incredible curveball in 2016, posting a .087 BAA when he uses it. The Tigers, losers of four straight, will counter with Mike Pelfrey. The righty has been struggling badly, saddled with a 5.68 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, and .305 BAA. He's allowed 13 earned runs and 33 base runners in his last 15 2/3 IP, with just six strikeouts. Texas has handled Pelfrey, tagging him for an ERA north of 5.00 and a .304 BAA in three starts. Besides Detroit's four-game skid, we have a Texas team that's taken six of seven against the Tigers, including 4-0 at Comerica. And finally, MLB road favorites with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or lower, are on a 35-6 winning run against teams with an OBP of .320 or worse, provided the home team's starting pitcher has a WHIP of 2.00 or higher in his last three starts. I'm backing the Texas Rangers, my Daytime Mismatch GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-06-16 | Royals v. Indians -145 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Cleveland Indians on Friday. The KC Royals are truly struggling. Last season, KC finished with a +83 run differential, good enough to rank 7th in MLB. This season, they're -13, and have scored just 90 runs in 27 games, outscoring just two MLB teams. The biggest problem is they way they're hitting, (or aren't hitting), with runners in scoring position. The Royals are 28th, 30th, and 30th, with RISP, in team batting average, OBP, and OPS, respectively. If you aren't scoring runs, you'd better have terrific pitching. Unfortunately, for the Royals, Yordano Ventura has walked a whopping 20 batters in 27 innings of work. This, from a starting pitcher who finished last season with a so-so 4.30 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 14 road starts. The Indians send Danny Salazar to the mound, taking with him, a 2.40 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and .139 BAA. Salazar faced KC four times in 2015, sporting a stingy 0.99 WHIP and .229 BAA. KC enters on a 1-7 road slide and they're 1-9 in Ventura's last 10 May starts, allowing over 4 1/2 rpg. I'm backing the Cleveland Indians, my Friday Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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05-04-16 | Nationals -135 v. Royals | 13-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Washington Nationals on Wednesday afternoon. KC broke through last night with three runs in the 9th to come from behind and beat the Nats, 7-6. But when comparing the two bullpens, you'll see these two staffs are about as good as it gets. Both are in the top six in bullpen ERA, while Washington's pen owns a slightly stingier BAA. So, last night's 9th inning was an anomaly. The big advantage in this one is Stephen Strasburg over Kris Medlen. Strasburg is 12-2 in his last 18 starts, sporting a 1.81 ERA along the way. He's punched-out 40 batters in 36 innings this season, while awarding just eight free passes. Meanwhile, Medlen has been walking way too many batters, 16 in 20 1/3, to be exact. In fact, he has as many walks as he does strikeouts in 2016. Medlen was crushed by Baltimore in his lone home start and Kauffman was a nightmare of a mound for the right-hander in six appearances (four starts) last season. The Nats enter on a 6-0 run when Strasburg toes the road rubber, while the Royals have dropped four straight Medlen home starts. I'm backing the Nationals, my Perfect-10! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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Scott Spreitzer MLB Money Lines Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-01-16 | Rangers +101 v. Indians | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
05-31-16 | White Sox v. Mets -160 | 6-4 | Loss | -160 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
05-30-16 | Dodgers v. Cubs -138 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
05-29-16 | Red Sox -134 v. Blue Jays | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
05-28-16 | Dodgers v. Mets -159 | 9-1 | Loss | -159 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
05-25-16 | Indians v. White Sox -110 | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
05-25-16 | Cubs -160 v. Cardinals | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
05-23-16 | A's +116 v. Mariners | 5-0 | Win | 116 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
05-22-16 | Cubs v. Giants -121 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
05-21-16 | Royals -110 v. White Sox | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
05-20-16 | Mariners -128 v. Reds | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
05-15-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -134 | 2-1 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
05-15-16 | Mets -140 v. Rockies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
05-13-16 | Angels v. Mariners -150 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -150 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
05-13-16 | Mets -112 v. Rockies | 2-5 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
05-12-16 | Cardinals -133 v. Angels | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
05-11-16 | Indians -110 v. Astros | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
05-11-16 | White Sox v. Rangers -131 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
05-10-16 | Blue Jays -126 v. Giants | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
05-09-16 | Mets -114 v. Dodgers | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show | |
05-08-16 | Diamondbacks -136 v. Braves | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
05-07-16 | Rays -123 v. Angels | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
05-07-16 | Rangers -126 v. Tigers | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
05-06-16 | Royals v. Indians -145 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
05-04-16 | Nationals -135 v. Royals | 13-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |