Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-29-21 | 76ers v. Wizards UNDER 228 | Top | 132-103 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
SATURDAY, MAY 29TH, 2021 7:00 PM ET Game 3: PHI leads series 2-0 76ers @ Wizards Capital One Arena, Washington, DC The 76ers have dominated the Wizards through the first two games and there is no reason not to expect that domination again here in Game-3. The 76ers are the best defensive team in the NBA, in my opinion, and will focus even more attention on the defensive end in this road game. This season, the 76ers are 13-4 UNDER when facing an opponent that averages a minimum of six or more made 3-point shots-per-game OR attempts an average of 18 3-point shot attempts-per-game. Betting the UNDER in a playoff game with a total of at least 225 or more points and one of the teams averages at least 7 steals-per-game has earned a 27-17-1 UNDER record good for 61% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. Plus, 76ers are 15-4 UNDER in a road game and coming off an UNDER game this season. Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle are two of the best defensive players in the NBA. Simmons is a definite contender for the Defensive Player of the Year award and Thybulle’s defensive measures are insanely good because he is averaging about 20-minutes-per-game. His minutes are increasing in the playoffs and despite being a guard, he is averaging a series-leading 3.5 blocks-per-game. In addition to his defensive prowess, Simmons has averaged a triple-double in this series averaging 12 assists-per-game, 12 rebounds-per-game, and 14 PPG. Simmons is very strong 6-11 point guard and Bradley Beal has admitted that it is much more difficult to score poinnts when he is defended by Simmons. My machine learning applications are ex[ecting no more than 88 shot attempts by the 76ers. They are 18-6 UNDER for 75% winning bets, this season, when they have attempted no more than 88 shots. Bet the UNDER in Game-3 |
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05-29-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Blazers | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
SATURDAY, MAY 29TH, 2021 4:00 PM ET Game 4: DEN leads series 2-1 Nuggets @ Trail Blazers Moda Center, Portland, OR 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Denver Nuggets plus the points and sproinkle a bit more on the money line. Denver, despite its injuries, took back home court with a win in Game 3 Thursday night in Portland. The Trail Blazers went ice-cold from beyomd the arc in their 120-115 loss, shooting 14-for-45, and the Nuggets took advantage by having made the defensive adjustments they did for Gasme-3. I do not see Portland being able to offset the adjustments that Denver made in game-3 and they are expected to lose this game at home. With a Game-4 win, Denver then will have a home elimination game for Game-5. Denver has gotten the usual stellar performance from MVP favorite Nikola Jokic, but it has been the role players who have given the Nuggets an edge in the series. Campazzo nearly had a triple-double in Game 3 (11 points, eight rebounds and eight assists) and took a borderline charge on Nurkic, who fouled out in the fourth quarter. Campazzo is a 30-year-old NBA rookie who has been thrust into a starting role with injuries to Murray, Will Barton and PJ Dozier, and he has responded extremely well. Denver has excellent ball movement and Portland is just 18-32 ATS in home games when facing teams averaging 23 or more assists-per-game over the last two seasons. Denver is 12-4 ATS in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games this season. Portland is 4-12 ATS in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more over two straight games this season. From the predictive side of my machine learning apps, Denver is expected to score at least 115 points in this game. In road games installed as an underdog, the Nuggets have earned a 10-7 SU record and 13-4 ATS record good for 77% winning bets over the last three seasons. Bet the Denver Nuggets as a 4-UNIT best bet plus the points and sprinkle a bit on the money line too. |
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05-26-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -8 | Top | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
WASHINGTON (35 - 40) at PHILADELPHIA (50 - 23) Wednesday, 5/26/2021 7:00 PM Game-2 of the First Round 10-UNIT Best Bet on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points. The 76ers are a solid 22-13-1 ATS in home games and facing a team that is averaging 112 or more PPG in games played over the last two seasons. Wizards are 18-35 ATS in road tilts after having lost two of their last three games spanning the last three seasons. 76ers are a highly profitable 16-6 ATS in home games coming off an ATS loss and with a total of 220 or more points over the last two seasons. A lot of negative news out about how poorly he played on the offensive end down the stretch. He did have 15 rebounds and 15 assists BUT did go 0-for-6 from the charity stripe. However, the 76ers are 55-38-2 for 59% following a game in which Ben Simmons made no more than one free throw. The 76ers are 25-14 ATS for 64% winning bets coming off a game in which Ben Simmons scored fewer than 10 points and 16-8 ATS in home games coming off a game in which Ben Simmons scored less than 10 points. 76ers are a remarkable 21-4 ATS for 84% winning bets in home games and coming off a home game in which Ben Simmons had 10 or more assists. Including, 14-1 SU and ATS coming a home game getting at least 10 assists and now his team is at home installed as a favorite of 4.5 to 9.5 points. My models are predicting that the 76ers will score at least 118 points and make at least 33% of their 3-point shot attempts. In past games, when the 76ers met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned an outstanding 43-4 SU and 33-14 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past three seasons. Take the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points. |
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05-25-21 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 209.5 | Top | 109-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
LA LAKERS (43 - 31) at PHOENIX (52 - 21) Tuesday, 5/25/2021 10:00 PM Western Conference - First Round – Best-Of -7 - Game 2 4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER The Lakers are: 30-12 UNDER when facing 3-point shooting teams making 36% or more of their attempts this season. 13-4 UNDER when facing elite shooting teams making 48% or more of their shots this season. Bet the UNDER with any team where the total is greater than or equal to 205 points, after going under the total by more than 22 points in their previous game, a good team with a win percentage between 60% to 75% and is playing a team with a winning record. This system has earned a 78-30-8 UNDER for 72% winning bets over the last three seasons. If the total is 225 or lower, the record has been 52-21-6 for 71% winning bets over the last three seasons. If the game is taking place in the playoffs, the record has been 10-5-2 UNDER over the last three seasons. So, here is one of my more advanced betting angles that has produced a 107-48-6 UNDER record good for 69% winning bets. The average points scored in road games by the road team and the average points scored by the home team in their home games is at least 2.5% greater than the current posted total, and the team (Lakers) lost the previous matchup, and the opponent (Suns) has seen the UNDER win 40% or more in their home games on the season. |
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05-23-21 | Hawks v. Knicks UNDER 213.5 | Top | 107-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ATLANTA (41 - 31) at NEW YORK (41 - 31) Sunday, 5/23/2021 7:00 PM 5-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER Betting the UNDER in a game with a total between 210 and 219.5 points and a team is coming off back-to-back double-digit home wins and revenging a loss to the current opponent, who scored 112 or more points in that loss has earned a solid 34-11 UNDER record for 76% winning bets. Betting the UNDER in the following situational betting system has earned a highly profitable 25-11-1 record for 70% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Bet UNDER in the first game of the Round 1 playoffs in which the previous matchup between the two teams went OVER the posted total. If the total has been 210 or more points, the record has been 11-3 UNDER for 80% winning bets. From the predictive metrics, the Knicks are 65-24-1 UNDER for 73% in home games in which their opponent shot 47% or lower from the field and shot 37% or lower from beyond the arc in games played over the last five seasons. |
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05-23-21 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 213.5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
LA LAKERS (43 - 30) at PHOENIX (51 - 21) Sunday, 5/23/2021 3:30 PM 4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total The Lakers are: 25-8 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season. 29-12 UNDER facing 3 point shooting teams making 36% or more of their attempts this season. 34-16 UNDER facing teams scoring an average of 112 or more points-per-game (NBA League Average) this season. 14-1 UNDER after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread this season. Betting the UNDER in the following situational betting system has earned a highly profitable 25-11-1 record for 70% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Bet UNDER in the first game of the Round 1 playoffs in which the previous matchup between the two teams went OVER the posted total. If the total has been 210 or more points, the record has been 11-3 UNDER for 80% winning bets. |
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05-23-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 118-125 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
Washington Wizards vs Philadelphia 76ers 1:00 PM EST, May 23, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Philadelpphia 76ers This is the first of many Best Bets in NBA, MLB, and the NHL for Sunday. So, please stop back to get the complete card including a top-rated 5-Unit Game of the Month. All bets will be released by Noon ET. Here are a few of the situational angles that support the 76ers. They are 21-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season; 24-11 ATS in home games facing faster-paced teams averaging 88 or more shots-per-game over the last two seasons. Betting on home favorites of 2.5 to 9.5 points that are hosting a team they previously defeated by double-digits and with that opponent coming off a double-digit home win has earned a 140-91-5 ATS record good for 60% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. From my predictive models, the 76ers are expected to score at least 120 points and have the better assists-to-turnover ratio in this game. In past home games, when the 76ers have met or exceeded these performance measures, has produced a 35-12 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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05-22-21 | Celtics v. Nets -8 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points The Celtics lost all three games to the Nets this season and none of the losses had the star trio of Harden, Durant, and Irving on the floor at the same time. They will be playing only the ninth game together and have played just 203 total minutes together in games played this season. The Celtics are without their best player in Jaylen Brown and all signals point to a best double-digit win. Betting on home teams that have posted three consecutive games with a 2.5 or better assist-to-turnover ratio and facing an opponent that has a season-to-date assist-to-turnover ratio below 2.0 has earned an outstanding 18-9-1 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last three seasons. The betting lines ikmply a 119-111 Nets win and the predictive models that I have developed over more than two decades see a high probability that the Nets will score at least 117 points in this game. When scoring 117 or more points in home games, the Nets are 40-10 SU, 34-15-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last three seasons. When allowing 117 or more points in road games, the Celtics are a horrid 3-26 SU, 4-24-1 ATS for 14% in games played over the last three seasons. |
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05-22-21 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | 107-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
MIAMI (40 - 32) at MILWAUKEE (46 - 26) Saturday, 5/22/2021 2:00 PM Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Miami Heat plus the points. I like making this a combination bet comprised of 80% of your normal bet size on the line and 20% on the money line. Milwaukee is just 13-23 ATS when facing a good shooting team making >=46% of their shots this season; 5-18 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Heat is 24-12 ATS against Central division opponents over the last two seasons. The predictive models point to the Heat scoring at least 112 points in this game. The Bucks are 17-38-2 ATS in home games when allowing 112 or more points over the last three seasons. In road games, the Heat are 36-11-1 ATS when scoring 112 or more points spanning the last three seasons and a perfect 4-0 ATS in playoff games. |
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05-18-21 | Wizards +2.5 v. Celtics | 100-118 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
WASHINGTON (34 - 38) at BOSTON (36 - 36) Tuesday, 5/18/2021 9:00 PM Eastern Conference - Play-In Game - Game 1 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Washington Wizards The Boston Celtics ended the regular season in a deep slump, while the Washington Wizards soared to the finish line. Their paths will converge Tuesday night when the Celtics host the Wizards in the play-in round. The winner will land the No. 7 seed for the Eastern Conference playoffs, while the loser will get another attempt to play their way in on Thursday night. The Celtics (36-36), who finished seventh in the Eastern Conference, need to raise their level now as they struggled down the stretch with five losses in six games and nine of their past 13. They also lost standout guard Jaylen Brown (wrist) for the rest of the season. He averaged 24.7 points per game and losing Brown's firepower hurts even more when the opponent trots out Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook as the starting backcourt. Washington is 18-6 ATS facing teams allowing 111+ points-per-game and 2nd half of this season. Boston is 10-22 ATS in home games facing teams - scoring 111+ points-per-game - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons. Washington 31-16 ATS in up-tempo games where they attempt 88 or more shots this season. |
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05-16-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -3 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
Memphis vs Golden State The clubs enter the game with identical 38-33 records, tied for eighth in the West, meaning the winner will earn the No. 8 seed and a road game Wednesday against the seventh-seeded club (either the Los Angeles Lakers or Portland), while the loser will host 10th-place San Antonio as the No. 9 seed. Warriors are 17-8 ATS wehen facing a team that averages at least 88 shot attempts-per-game this season; 16-7 ATS when facing teams allowing more than the NBA League average of 112 PPG this seasdon. Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after successfully covering the spread in two oir more consecutive games, and with both teams in the matchup having win percentages between 50 and 60% on the season has earned a 57-28 ATS record good for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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05-15-21 | Bulls v. Nets OVER 233.5 | Top | 91-105 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Chicago Vs Brooklyn 1:05 PM EST, May 15, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER For the first time in 41 games, the dynamic trio of Harden, Irving, and Durant will play together for the Nets as they seek to avoid slipping to the third playoff slot. The Bucks, currently in the third seed, own the tie-breaker over the Nets. So, the strategy will be quite interesting for the later game between the Miami Heat and the Bucks. No team in the East wants to face the Heat in the first round. It is likely the Nets win this game over the Bulls and then we will see how Milwaukee chooses to play this out. There are two scenarios we could see unfold later on Saturday. First, the Bucks playing to win and putting the pressure back to the Nets to play a full lineup Sunday against Cleveland. Second, the Bucks could elect to rest Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton against the Heat and accept the No-3 seed. Nevertheless, the Nets must win this game first, to force the chess matchup to continue with the Bucks. The OVER is supported by an outstanding NBA betting angle that has produced a 22-5-1 OVER record for 82% winning bets spanning the last three seasons. Bet the OVER with a team coming off back-to-back games in which they achieved an elite 2.75 or higher assist-to-turnover ratio, and the gamne is lined at 234 or more points. Even with a total of at least 230 points, the record is still a strong 36-15-2 for 71% winning bets over the last three seasons. We saw last night, the OVER, in the Warriors vs Pelicans game easily eclipse the total of 220 points. The final score was a 125-122 Warriors win without Steph Curry in the game. The news that he was not playing, sent the total plummeting from an opening price of 230 points to 220 points. Betting against these market moves has been a very successful strategy this season. So, if there is news that the big-3 are not playing does not invalidate the strength of this Total. |
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05-02-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 243.5 | Top | 114-117 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
Brooklyn vs Milwaukee 3:30 PM EST, May 2, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER Based on this matchup, the final score may see well over 250 total points scored. Betting the OVER with a home team where the total; is greater than 200 points that is outscoring their opponents by an average of at least 6 or more PPG on the season and facing a foe that is coming off a brutal loss of 15 or more points has earned an outstanding 7-32-1 SATS record for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons. In the 2020 NBA season , betting the OVER in games with a total of at least 235 points has earned a remarkable 51-25 record for 67% winning bets. If the total was 240 and higher, the OVER has earned a 17-6-1 ATS for 74% winning bets this season. When the Bucks have been at home with a total of 235 or more, the OVER is a perfect 7-0 ATS. In road games and a total of at least 235 points, the OVER is 7-1 in Nets road games. |
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04-24-21 | Wolves v. Jazz -11.5 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Utah 4-Unit Best Bet on the Utah Jazz minus the points. We are on a double-digit favorite tonight in the NBA action which is rare, but always reinforced by a multitude of facts. I will detail just a few of these facts that support Utah to win this game by at least 18 points. Minnesota is just 13-26 ATS when facing a strong opponent that is outscoring their opponents by at least three or more points-per-game on the season; 16-27 ATS when facing a team averaging 111 or more PPG (NBA League Average is 111 PPG) this season. Utah is an outstanding 14-3-1 ATS when facing a team with a terrible defensive presence that is allowing opponents to make 48% or more of their shots from the field in games played this season; 21-9 ATS when facing a poor team that has been poutscored by their opponents by at least six PPG on the season. From the complete analytical research, I am expecting the Jazz to score at least 115 points have the better, and more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio. In past home games in which Utah met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go on to an outstanding 21-3 ATS record for 88% winning bets over the last three seasons. Bet the Utah Jazz as a 4-UNIT Best Bet minus the points. |
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04-24-21 | Raptors +1 v. Knicks | Top | 103-120 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
Toronto vs New York 4-UNIT best Bet on the Toronto Raptors plus the points or the money line. The betting line is at pick-em for the game at Madison Square Garden, so simply bet either the line or the money line with the lowest vig. Shop around and you will get a line that is not paying more than -110 vig. Toronto has suddenly won four consecutive games and are playing at a high level and facing a New York Knicks team that has been white hot, but vulnerable to regression in this matchup. In this matchup, I think you will see Toronto score at least 110 points and make more 3-pointers than the Knicks. In past road games in which Toronto met or exceeded these measures has seen them go on to earn an outstanding 55-8 SU, and 49-13-1 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past seasons. Bet the Toronto Raptors as a 4-Unit best Bet |
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04-19-21 | Jazz v. Lakers UNDER 215 | Top | 111-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Utah vs the LA Lakers 10:00 PM EST, April 19, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER the posted total Here are a few quick hitter supporting the UNDER. Lakers ar e16-6 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 25-12 UNDER when playing against a team ytjhat is scoring at or above the league average of 111 points-per-game; 12-4 UNDER when facing solid rebounding teams that are averaging at least three more rebounds than their opponents this season. Betting the UNDER with road teams involved in a game lined between 210 and 219.5 points, playing their sixth game in the last 10 days, and revenging a road loss to the current opponent has earned a 62-30-2 record for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons. Take the UNDER |
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04-18-21 | Pelicans +1 v. Knicks | Top | 112-122 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
New Orleans ve NY Knicks 1:00 PM EST, April 17, 2021 4-Unit Best Bet on the New Orleans Pelicans plus the points. Currently, the betting line has the Pelicans installed as a 1-point underdogs and there is positively no value in betting the money line, unless you are getting even-money or as in the case at Pinnacle (+102). So, if unless you are getting +100 or better money, stick with the 1-point spread. Here is a great NBA Betting system that has earned a 92-56-2 ATS record over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team that lost the matchup to the current opponent, and is coming off two consecutive upset losses installed as favorites. Filtering only games that are lined within 3.5 points on either side of pick-em returns a 28-16 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga UNDER 159.5 | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Baylor vs Gonzaga 9:00 PM EST, April 5, 2021 4% Best bet UNDER the posted total of 159 points. How in the world is this Championship Game even come close to matching the drama of the UCLA vs Gonzaga semifinal game, which is at the top of the All-Time greatest games in any sport. I do see this game being a physical war between these two juggernaut programs, who were ranked 1 and 2 in the nation throughout the season. Betting on the UNDER in neutral court settings with a total between 150.5 and 160 points in a matchup where the one team, Gonzaga, has scored 75 or more points in at least two consecutive games and now facing an opponent, Baylor, who is coming off a game in which they scored at least 40 or more points in the first-half of their last game has earned a solid 110-57-1 UNDER record for 67% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. If the ‘other’ team, Baylor, has scored 40 or more in two consecutive first-halves, the record moves up to 70% winning bets. |
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04-01-21 | 76ers -9.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Cleveland 4% Best Bet on the 76ers -10 points The 76ers are tied on top of the Eastern Conference standings with the Brooklyn Nets. They have lost 3 consecutive games on two occasions this season and will avert a third such occurrence tonight. They are ending their 6-game road trip and will look to return home with the possibility of Joel Embiid being able to return to the lineup. Cleveland is 7-19 ATS when facing a winning record team this season. The 76ers are an excellent rebounding team. Cleveland is just 11-30 ATS when facing a team that is outrebounding their opponents by an average 3 or more per game. 76ers head coach Doc Rivers is 53-27 ATS for 67% winning bets in his career following a game in which his team had been outrebounded by 15 or more boards. From the machine learning applications, we learn that the 76ers are 66-9 SU and 57-17-1 ATS for 77% winning bets when scoring 111 or more points (league scoring average the last three seasons) and having the better assist-to-turnover ratio than their opponent spanning the last three seasons. |
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03-30-21 | 76ers +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Denver This is a MONEY LINE Betting System that has posted a losing record of 103-182 for 36% winning money line bets, but has made the $100 bettor a profit of $7,777 over the last 5 seasons. Bet on road underdogs using the money line that is facing a host, who is outscoring their opponents by a minimum of 3 PPG, and are coming off three consecutive games in which 220 or more points were scored. If the DOG covered the spread, they the game straight-up 54% of the time. Let me know if you have any questions and TY for putting it together. So, I recommend betting this game using 80% of your normal 4% bet size on the spread and then the 20% remaining bet on the money line. 76ers are 18-5-1 ATS when facing a solid shooting team making at least 46.5% of their shots in game splayed this season. They are also 19-10-2 ATS when facing teams that are averaging 110 or more PPG this season. Since February 21, the 76ers are 11-1 in this role. |
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03-30-21 | USC +8.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
USC vs Gonzaga I am betting Houston at +500 to win the Championship. I also betting USC at +1400 to win the Championship as an alternative sprinkle of USC using the money line in this game. Far more bang for the buck doing it this way. Following game number 15 of the regular season, betting on Neutral court UNDERDOGS that are good defensive teams allowing 63-67 PPG and now facing an elite offensive team scoring at least 77 PPG and coming off a win by 15 or more points has earned a 24-5 ATS record good for 83% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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03-29-21 | Cavs +16 v. Jazz | Top | 75-114 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
Cleveland vs Utah 9:00 PM EST, March 29, 2021 4% best bet on the Cleveland Cavs +15.5 points Betting on double-digit underdogs, after game number 41, in a matchup of the tale of two teams, with the favorite having outscored their opponents by 7 or more PPG, and the underdog being outscored by 7 or more PPG, has earned a highly profitable 63-45-2 ATS for 58.3% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and 21-9 ATS for 75% last five seasons. |
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03-28-21 | Hawks +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 102-126 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Atlanta vs Denver 9:00 PM EST, March 28, 2021 4% Best Bet on the Atlanta Hawks +4.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. I plan to bet this game on the Hawks with 85% of my 4% bet size on the line and then 15% of my 4% bet size on the money line. These two teams last played in Atlanta, who defeated Denver 123-115 as 2.5-point home underdogs. Denver is 2-10 ATS revenging a road loss this season. They are also just 3-12 ATS in home games after scoring 100 or more points in back-to-back games spanning the past two seasons. From the machine learning applications, we learn that Atlanta is 47-15 and 46-14- 2 ATS for 77% winning bets, in road games, scoring 111 or more points, and had previously defeated the opponent at home. |
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03-28-21 | Florida State +2.5 v. Michigan | Top | 58-76 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Florida State vs Michigan 4% Best Bet on Florida State +2 points or the money line +115 or higher. I will be playing this bet using the money line and it will be graded on the site as a money line play. The line has drifted to the 2-point price level and if you believe FSU is going to win, then the money line offers better value at +115. If the money line is at +110, for instance, then consider a combination wager of FSU +1.5/+2 points for 50% of your normal 4% bet amount and then another 50% betting the money line at +110. In the NCAA Tournament action dating back to the 2009 season (2010 March Madness), betting on underdogs of four or fewer points, that have averaged 72 or fewer possessions-per-game, have earned a 138-88-1 ATS record for 61% winning bets. This system has earned the $100 bettor a profit of $4,332 or a highly profitable 18% return-on-investment (ROI). So far in the NCAA Tournament, this system has done well with a 9-5 ATS for 64% winning bets and a nice 24.2 % ROI. FSU is 21-5-1 ATS when dressed as an underdog of six or fewer points dating back to the 2005 season. FSU head coach Hamilton relishes this underdog role sporting a 12-3 ATS record playing on neutral courts as an underdog of three or fewer points and 19-4 ATS as an underdog of six or fewer points. |
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03-28-21 | Creighton v. Gonzaga OVER 158.5 | Top | 65-83 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
Creighton vs Gonzaga 4% Best Bet OVER the posted total of 158 points. We all have seen many more UNDER results this NCAA Tournament, and with the UNDER a perfect 4-0 UNDER yesterday. These UNDERS combined for going under their respective totals by 78 points in total and is easily above the highest UNDER total for a sweet 16 round since 2010, which occurred in the 2014 tournament and a total of 38 points. For this matchup, the OVER is the play based on my research and machine learning applications. The line and total imply a Gonzaga 86-73 win today over Creighton. The ML apps underscore Gonzaga’s points total of 86 or more points. Gonzaga has an 82% probability of scoring 86 or more points. In past games, Creighton is 7-0 OVER when they have allowed 87 or more points spanning the last three seasons. Gonzaga is 30-3 OVER when both they and their opponent have scored 75 or more points spanning the last three seasons. Gonzaga is 75-2 and 55-15 OVER in games scoring 81 or more points spanning the last five seasons and teams in the NCAA Tournament that have scored 87 or more points, are 52-4 and 50-6 OVER spanning the last six NCAA Tournaments. |
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03-27-21 | Syracuse +6.5 v. Houston | Top | 46-62 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Syracuse vs Houston Sweet 16 Round Hinkle Fieldhouse 9:55 PM EST, March 27, 2021 4% Best Bet on Syracuse +6.5 points I like a red-hot Syracuse team that once again is proving the nay-sayers wrong. Jim Boeheim is one of the best coaches All-Time and has the Syracuse 2-3 zone defense holding their first two opponents to less than 36% shooting. Even though, Houston has had many days to prepare for this defense, facing it in a LIVE game is far more different than studying game films. Houston is certainly an elite team, but in order to attack a 2-3 zone, an offense needs a strong post presence. Houston does not have that strong scoring threat in the post, and I see Syracuse doing a great job contesting every 3-point shot attempt. Boeheim is 10-1 ATS when his teams have been seeded 9 through 12 in the NCAA Tournament. Houston is 1-9 ATS in games away from home following a low-scoring game in which 125 or fewer points were scored spanning the last three seasons. |
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03-26-21 | Blazers -9 v. Magic | Top | 112-105 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
Portland vs Orlando Let’s start with a highly profitable betting system that supports making a bet on Portland. The system has earned a 78-20 SU record and 65-31-2 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are to bet on road favorites of 3.5 or more points that are coming off back-to-back games in which they allowed 100 or more points and are now facing a host that is coming off a win of three or fewer points. Plus, if the host has lost 65% or more of their games, then the record improves to 25-10-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. The last time Orlando played Portland ended with a 106-97 road and ATS loss on February 9. Orlando is just 10-31 ATS revenging a road loss in games played over the last two seasons. From the machine learning applications, we learn that Portland is a highly profitable 33-9 SU and 31-9-2 ATS for 78% winning bets when scoring 111 or more points and having the better assists-to-turnover ratio in road games played over the last five seasons. |
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03-24-21 | Mavs -8 v. Wolves | Top | 128-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
Dallas vs Minnesota Dallas is beginning to look like the playoff-bound team I thought they would be before the season started. Doncic is averaging career-highs scoring 29 PPG and adding 9.2 assists-per-game. However, it has been their improved defense recently that has driven to their 22-19 record. Minnesota is 35-64 ATS when facing an opponent that is averaging at least 18 or more 3-point shot attempts-per-game over the last two seasons and the same record facing opponents that make at least six 3-point shots-per-game. Betting on road favorites that are coming off a monster win of 20 or more points and facing an opponent that has scored and allowed 100 or more points in each of their last three games has earned a 46-19-2 ATS record for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons, is 7-3 in the 2020 season, and has gone 4-1 ATS in March. |
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03-23-21 | 76ers -4 v. Warriors | Top | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Golden State Although Stephen Curry and his brother, Seth, have each missed the passed two games and are considered questionable to play Wednesday, they are on the schedule to go head-to-head Tuesday night for the 14th time in their NBA careers when the Golden State Warriors host the Philadelphia 76ers. Meanwhile, big men James Wiseman and Joel Embiid will have to wait on their first duel. However, the 76ers have played very well without Embiid in the lineup and is projected to return to action next week. The 76ers are coming off a 1-point POT road win against the New York Knicks. They are installed as favorites in this matchup. Betting on favorites coming off a road overtime win and now are installed as road favorite have earned a solid 31-15-1 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. If the road favorite, which is the 765ers, has won 60% or more of their games, the record soars to 18-7 for 72% winning bets. |
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03-22-21 | Oklahoma v. Gonzaga -14 | Top | 71-87 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
Oklahoma vs Gonzaga 4% Best bet on Gonzaga –14 points Betting on neutral court favorites in a matchup involving the favorite being an elite offense averaging 77 or more PPG and are coming off two consecutive games scoring 85 or more points, and facing an average D-1 defense that is allowing between 67 and 75 PPG has earned a highly profitable 74-32 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. Gonzaga is 27-0, 13-12 ATS, and is averaging 92.3 PPG, 45.7 PPG in the first half, and making 55% of their shot attempts. Despite playing at the 7th-fastest pace of play in the nation, their defense holds up extremely well and allows just 69 PPG, 31.5 PPG in the first half, and 41.4% shooting. Oklahoma is 16-10 SU, 13-12 ATS, and average 74.7 PPG, 34.2 PPG in the first half, and shooting a below average 44% from the field. Their defense has allowed 69 PPG, 31.5 PPG in the first half, and 42% opponent shooting. However, over their last five games, they have regressed and average 70.6 PPG, 29.4 PPF in the first half, and make 43% of their shots. On the defensive side, they have allowed 71.6 PPG, 33.6 first half PPG, and allowed 45% shooting over their last five games. So, Gonzaga is playing well, and may not have even peeked yet, and now facing an Oklahoma team that is struggling a bit at both ends of the court. Gonzaga has shot 50% or better from the field in all but TWO of their 27 games and both of those games they shot 49.2% from the field. They have outscored their opponents by 23.7 PPG, and have the fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.543. They also have the 21st-best defense assist-to-turnover ratio at 0.755. Oklahoma ranks 128th with a 0.929 opponent assist-to-turnover. So, how in the world is Oklahoma going to slow Gonzaga’s constant offensive attack? I do not think they will or can even on their best day. From the machine learning applications, we learn that Gonzaga is expected to score at least 87 points. When Gonzaga has scored 80 or more points, they are 45-26-1 ATS, and when scoring 87 or more points, they are 41-15-1 ATS for 73% winning bets. |
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03-21-21 | Oregon State v. Oklahoma State -6 | Top | 80-70 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Oregon State vs Oklahoma State Oklahoma State is a perfect 7-0 ATS since the 15-game of this season facing teams that were averaging 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game. Oregon State is a money-burning 7-22 ATS coming off a four or more-game win streak spanning the last ten seasons. Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games this season. Oklahoma State is 8-2 ATS on neutral courts and having won five or more of their last six games. From the machine learning applications, we are expecting Oklahoma State to shoot between 48 and 53% from the field and to attempt 57 to 64 shots. They are 9-1 ATS when they have met these performance measures. |
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03-21-21 | Oral Roberts v. Florida -9 | Top | 81-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Oral Roberts vs Florida Oral Roberts pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Tournament history in their win over Ohio State. The following betting system reveals how difficult it will be for them to pull off another giant-killing upset win. This system has earned a 44-15-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons and requires us to bet on neutral court favorites that are from a Major D-1 Conference and facing a team that is from a Mid-Major Conference and that is also playing their second neutral court game in the past three days. A second betting system has earned a 51-19 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing a team that is on a four or more-game win streak and are seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament. Florida head coach White is 7-0 ATS when facing an opponent that has been getting outrebounded by four or more rebounds-per-game. He is also 13-3-1 SATS away from Gainesville when having failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games. |
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03-21-21 | Wisconsin +6.5 v. Baylor | Top | 63-76 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
Wisconsin vs Baylor 4% best bet on Wisconsin +6.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. I will be betting this game with 85% of my 4% bet size using the spread and the remaining 15% on the money line. I had thought that UNC would advance to this game against Baylor, but Wisconsin and their strong 3-point shooting present far more problems for Baylor. Wisconsin’s Davison had 29 points in the 85-62 route of UNC. They had only seven turnovers and strong ball-handling is a definite requirement in order to take down Baylor. Given that the fourth seed Purdue and two seed Ohio State both lost, the winner of this game will have the easiest remaining schedule to win the region and advance to the Final-Four. Betting on neutral court underdogs that are coming off a win of 15 or more-points, have a solid defense allowing 67 or fewer PPG, and are now facing an excellent offensive team averaging 75 or more PPG has earned a 25-5 ATS record over the last five seasons. In the NCAA Tournament teams that are allowing 67 or fewer PPG and facing an opponent that is averaging 75 or more PPG have earned a 176-124 ATS record for 59% winning bets. |
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03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois -7 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
Loyola-Illinois vs Illinois 4% Best bet on Illinois –7 points Betting on neutral court favorites that are coming off a 20-point or more blowout win and now facing an opponent coming off three consecutive double-digit wins has earned a 37-14 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. Illinois has tremendous balance and bench strength that will wear down the Loyola team over the course of the game, especially the second half of this matchup. Illinois overwhelmed Drexel with a two-man punch of All-Big Ten center Kofi Cockburn and All-American Ayo Dosunmu. Cockburn had 18 points, including a run of eight in a row, and Dosunmu awakened from a slow start to chip in 17 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and three steals in the first-round victory. Illinois has been near-perfect on the offensive end during their recent surge and are making the correct ball screen reads and as a result all five players are getting high-percentage looks. They share the ball, and you can see the fun and energy they bring to the court. Four of the five Illini starters scored in double-digits in the win over Drexel. Illinois took only seven 3-point shots among the total of 63 shot attempts against Drexel. You can bet they will look to pound the paint and take as many mid-range jumpers as possible. They will also look to speed up the game right from the opening tip and take Loyola out of their plodding pace that ranks 346th nationally. Illinois has the fifth most difficult schedule and are currently 7th in positive team momentum. Loyola had the 140th toughest schedule and rank 284th in momentum. In fact, Loyola’s momentum has regressed modestly. Illinois has a major advantage of the offensive glass and will have a big edge in second-chance scores. They rank 5th nationally in second-chance scoring and I just do not see how Loyola will be able to withstand the Illini’s offensive efficiency. Illinois head coach Underwood is a highly profitable 35-15 ATS when facing solid ball-handling teams that are averaging 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game. |
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03-20-21 | Abilene Christian v. Texas -8.5 | Top | 53-52 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Abilene Christian vs Texas 5% or 10-Star Best Bet on Texas – 8.5 points Coming off a terrible day on Friday going 0-3 ATS with 8-UNIT Best Bets, but at least winning Loyola as a 6-UNIT winning bet. UCLA won Thursday as a 8-UNIT Best Bet bring the 2-day record to 1-3 with 8-UNIT and 1-0 with 6-UNIT Best Bets. I mention this only to remind all of us, including myself, that this is a grinding marathon for 365-days. I am expecting to post my sixth consecutive profitable NCAA Tournament, but do NOT increase your bet size. Stay disciplined and maintain the long-term view to profitability that has served me quite well for 26 years. Betting on favorites in a matchup of similar offenses that are averaging 74 to 79 PPG, after the 15th game of the regular season including all Tournament action, and with the dog coming off three straight double-digit wins has earned a 40-23-2 ATS record for 63.5% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. If the favorite is lined between 3.5 and 9.5 points, the record improves to 26-8-2 ATS for 77% winning bets and has won nine straight ATS. Texas has big-time advantages across the board and at both ends of the court. Abilene Christian ranks 319th in strength of schedule and this is a sizable jump in competition taking on a Texas squad that has been far more consistent, and plays better away from Austin. Make no mistake about it, Texas will look to pressure every ball-handler looking to force turnovers and get quick fast-break scores. Texas ranks 56th in the nation in points off of steals and 40th in defensive field goal attempt rate. |
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03-20-21 | Grand Canyon v. Iowa -14 | Top | 74-86 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
Grand Canyon vs Iowa NCAA First Round, Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN 6:25 PM EST, March 20, 2021 4% Best Bet on Iowa – 14.5 points. Iowa is 27-11-1 ATS facing defensive teams that are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers-per-game over the last two seasons. Iowa is 13-3 ATS installed as a double-digit favorite spanning the last two seasons. Iowa is 17-5 ATS in games lined with a total between 140 and 149.5 points spanning the last two seasons. Iowa is 10-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games spanning the last three seasons. Iowa is 9-1 ATS coming off a game allowing 45 or more points in the first half of their last game over the last three seasons. Iowa is 8-1 ATS adfter a double-digit loss over the last two seasons. Iowa Head coach McCaffery is 44-27 ATS as a double-digit favorite From the machine learning applications, we learn that Iowa is 20-7-1 ATS for 75% winning bets when they have scored 81 or more points in games played over the last two seasons. The team is led by super-stud Luc Garza and is on eof the five starters that returned from last season. They have incredible chemistry and team leadership and this season was dedicated to winning the NCAA Championship. They rank best ball-handling team in the nation with an incredible 2.07 assists-to-turnover ratio. |
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03-20-21 | Iona v. Alabama OVER 146.5 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
Iona vs Alabama This total opened at 143 points and has seen smart money hitting the OVER lifting the market price to a current 147-points. My machine learning applications continue to ‘love’ the OVER with a high probability of both teasm socring 75 or more points and a final tally of about 160 points. One way to play this this total is to place 50% of your normal 4% betting amount pre-flop and then look to add 25% more at 143 and the last 25% at 138.5 points. If both teams start out fast, you may not get the chance to add the two parts. However, as we have seen in the first day’s action, the in-game pricing is extremely fast and volatile. So, let that volatility work for you in this game. Alabama is 41-26 OVER when installed as a favorite in games played over the last three seasons and 23-11-1 ATS in non-conference games played over the last three seasons. Alabama head coach Oats is 28-14-1 ATS when playing just the second game spanning the past week; 32-14 ATS when playing against an opponent that has won 60 to 80% of their games on the season and only in games played after the 15th game of the regular season. |
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03-20-21 | Eastern Washington +10.5 v. Kansas | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 2 h 12 m | Show |
Eastern Washington vs Kansas 1:15 PM EST, March 20, 2021 The 70-point level is goping to the key for this game and if EWU is going to pull-off an Oral Roberts-like upset over the 3-seed Kansas Jayhawks. The machine learning applications predict a high probability that EWU is going to score more than 70 points. EWU is 13-3 ATS when scoring 70 or more points this season. They are a losing record when not scoring more than 70 points. Kansas was 18-0 SU when holding an opponent to fewer than 70 points and just 2-8 when allowing 70 or more points this season. EWU center Tanner Groves has the opportunity for a huge game. They rank 12th nationally in points scored by the center at 28% of total points. Kansas forward David McCormack has been upgraded to probable for this game due to the COVID Quarantine protocol. Still, he is going to have his hands full trying to contain Groves and no one has any clue how much fatigue will impact McCormack. The biggest problem for the KU defense will be leaving the perimeter open when Groves gets the ball in the box. EWU guards accounted for a modest portion of the scoring, BUT the team has shot 35% from beyomd the arc. Big Sky Conference preseason Player-of-the-Year Jacob Davison, who doesn’t even start, hit 37% from behind the arc and went 9-18 in his last game. EWU knows how to spread the floor and the defense and take the best shot the defense provides them. From the machine learning applications, we learn that EWU is 11-2 ATS when making at least 33% of their 3-point shots in games played over the last two seasons. They are projected to make at least 80% of their free throw attempts and when doing so are 20-7 ATS in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-19-21 | North Texas v. Purdue -7 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
North Texas vs Purdue 4% Best Bet on Purdue -7 points Let us start with a solid and consistent monmey-making betting system that has earned a 62-23 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. The system requires a bet be made on favorites that are facing an opponent on a four or more-game win streak and is a 13 through 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Purdue is a solid rebounding team that has averaged 37.6 rebounds-per-game and have outrebounded opponents by 6.2 per-game on the season. Note that North Texas is a money-losing 21-44 ATS away from home and facing an opponent that is outrebounding their opponent by an average of 5 or more rebounds-per-game. Purdue’s head coach is 13-3 ATS in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. He is also 18-6 ATS when facing an opponent that averages a below average 15 free-throws-per-game. We learning from the machine learning applications, that Purdue is 13-3 ATS when having four or more offensive boards-per-game than their opponents over the last two seasons. The apps are predicting that North Texas will have fewer than 62 points. North Texas is just 35-60 ATS when scoring 62 or fewer points. |
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03-19-21 | Oregon State v. Tennessee -8.5 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
Oregon State vs Tennessee I certainly do not see any traditional upset here with a 12 vs 5 matchup in the first round. To start, OSU head coach Barnes is a terrible 7-22 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage between 51 and 60% and 8-24 ATS away from home and facing an excellent ball handling team that is committing 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game after the 15th game of the regular season including conference and NCAA, NIT Tournaments. Based on my opponent-adjusted rankings, UT is the 15th-best and OSU is the 75th-best team in the nation. UT has had a much-better resum based on overall record quality and are a superior team on both ends of the court. UT ranks 25 with a 45.9% opponent effective FG percentage. OSU is just not a good shooting team and is a main reason they play a slower style of game. They do not have the personnel to get involved into a track meet with UT. OSU ranks 230th with a 48.7% offensive effective FG percentage. From the machine learning applications we know that UT is 151-50-6 ATS for 75% winning bets when scoring 75 or more points in all games played over the last 15 seasons. |
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03-19-21 | Utah State +4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 53-65 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
Utah State vs Texas Tech Utah State is the 11-seed going up against a strong Texas Tech 6-seed in this first-round matchup taking place at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana. Utah State has the make-up to win this game and send Texas Tech home. Both teams playing slower than the average D-1 pace of play. UST averages 69.2 possessions-per-40-minutes and TTU averages an even slower pace averaging 66.9 possessions. UST is playing their best games entering the tournament while TTU has been on a minor regression. UST will look to score from the paint and at the rim as often as possible. They are an excellent passing team and will always make the extra pass to get the highest percentage shot. Their excellent ball movement is going to be tough for TTU defense to contain despite ranking in the top-20 of most defensive efficiency measures. UST is also quite good at scoring on second-chance opportunities. So, the more offensive boards they get and the greater the margin of offensive boards compared to TTU, the better their chances of winning this game. TTU is just 2-11 ATS when facing teams called for fewer than 17 fouls-per-game this season and 10-20 ATS when facing strong defenses that are allowing 42% or lower shooting over the last two seasons. UST is 9-2 ATS following two consecutive games allowing 30 or fewer points in the first half. TTU head Coach Beard is 14-26 ATS off a loss to a conference foe and 4-15 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite to a conference foe. Bet 4% on the Utah State Aggies and sprinkle the money line with a bit extra and not greater than a 1% amount. |
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03-18-21 | UCLA +2 v. Michigan State | Top | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 33 h 23 m | Show |
UCLA vs Michigan State 4% Best bet on UCLA + 2 points. The sentiment expectaions are highly overvalued and the betting public is betting MSU with irraytional exhuberance. So, this is a contrarian bet, going against the 77% or more of the bets seeing action on MSU. Currently, 77% of the bets made are on MSU, but just 52% of the money. On my live shows this week, which can found at Predictive Playbook on YouTube, I had suggested that MSU should have been seeded and that Syracuse was the team that should have been slotted into this play-in matchup with UCLA. Upon further review, and having run my machine learning applications, there is no doubt in my mind that the selection committee got it right. Noyte, too that I am stating that UCLA is guaranteed of getting the win. I am saying, that UCLA is the smart bet in this matchup and making smart bets over the course of the Tournament is a solid path toward potential profitability. MSU is 5-19 ATS in orad/neutral court setting when playing ateam with a winning record over the last two seasons; 4-14 ATS in road/netral court settings and facing an opponent that is outscoring their opponents by at least four or more points-per-game; 0-7 ATS this season away from home and following five consecutive games where their opponent committed 14 or fewer turnovers. From the machine learning applications, we are enlightened that MSU is 2-11 ATS in games in which they attempted 55 to 65 shots this season; 18-61 ATS in games played and allowing 75 to 81 points over the last 15 seasons. |
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03-17-21 | Hornets v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 104-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Denver Nuggets vs Charlotte Hornets An outstanding betting system is on Denver tonight and has earned an 96-43-2 ATS record good for 69.1% winning bets over the last seven seasons. The requirements are to bet on home favorites of 9.5 or fewer points that are coming off an ATS win and in matchup of teams that have won between 51 and 60% of their games on the season. Plus, a subset that filters if the favorite lost to the spread the last time they played the current opponent has earned a 48-14 ATS record for 77% winning bets. Charlotte is just 10-21 ASTS in games with a total between 220 and 229.5 points in games played over the last two seasons. From the machine learning applications, we learn that Denver is 18-4 ATS in home games when they have shot 50% from the field and 40% or better from beyond the arc in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-17-21 | Bucks v. 76ers +5.5 | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Milwaukee vs Philadelphia I also recommend a sprinkle on the money line. I bet these dogs with 85% of normal 4% bet amount using the line (Spread) and then using the remaining 15% on the money line. Over the course of the NBA season, you will definiltey increase the ROI and profits. Bet on home teams using the money line that are coming off a hard fought home win, but did not cover the spread and are playing their fifth game in the past week has earned an incredible 33-4 SU record for 89% winning bets. Milwaukee has been a money-burning 7-23 ATS in road game facing good shooting teams that are making at least 46% of their shots in games played over the last two seasons. 76ers are 9-1 ATS in home games and facing an guest that is a dominant team outscoring their opponents by at least 6 points-per-game. |
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03-17-21 | Nets v. Pacers UNDER 234.5 | Top | 124-115 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
Brooklyn vs Indiana The total opened at 229.5 points and has seen continuous bets being made on the OVER. The price has increased 4-points and now becomes an even better value bet on the UNDER and is definiltey a contrarian bwet, which I always like quite a bit. Indiana is 33-12 UNDER in home games when facing teams that are allowing 110 or more PPG over the last three seasons. Betting the UNDER with a total of 230 or more points, with a team that has won foiur or more of their last six games and is playing their fourth or fewer game in the last 10 days as earned bettors a 95-46-2 UNDER record for 67% winning bets in games palyed over the last 25 seasons. |
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03-16-21 | Hawks v. Rockets +9.5 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
Atlanta vs Houston The Hawks improved to 3-0 under McMillan with their 100-82 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday and will look to extend their season-long winning streak when they visit the Houston Rockets on Tuesday. This game, may see them extend the win streak to 4-games, but do not cover the spread. Morevoer, this is a situation, where a Houston would not surprise me in the least. Atlanta is 9-20 ATS in road games facing teams that are allowing 110 or more points-per-game. Betting on underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games and facing a team that has covered the spread in three or more of their last four games has earned a 75-29 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Atlanta is just 3-14 ATS after covering four or five of their last 6 games spanning the last two seasons. |
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03-15-21 | Lakers v. Warriors +2.5 | Top | 128-97 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors The Warriors stopped a four-game losing streak with a big-time win over Western Conference leading Jazz, 131-119 as a 7.5 point underdog. Lakers have lost six of their last nine games, and two of their last three. From the machine learning applications, we learn that the Warriors are 22-3 ATS for 88% winning bets when they have scored 111 or more points and had the better and more efoicient assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the last five seasons. |
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03-15-21 | Bucks -8.5 v. Wizards | Top | 133-122 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
Milwaukee vs Washington Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who are outscoring their opponents by at least 6 PPG and are coming off a game that they allowed 115 or more points has earned a solid 52-26 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. From the machine learning applications, we learn that Milwaukee is an outstanding 79-6 SU and 71-14 ATS for 84% winning bets when they have scored at least 111 points, made 48% or more of their field goal attempts, and had at least five more rebounds than their opponents in games played over the last ten seasons. 47-13 ATS for 78.3% in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-13-21 | Oregon State v. Colorado -9 | Top | 70-68 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Oregon State vs Coloroado Colorado has significant advantages at both ends of the court. The greatest advantage is at the charity stripe where Colorado gets to the line as much as the average PAC-12 or D-1 team but ranks best in the nation making 83.4% of those shots. Colorado ranks 103rd with a 26.6 free-throw attempt rate and will exceed their season average by as many as ten attempts given that OSU ranks 245th in defensive free-throw attempt rate. |
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03-13-21 | Pacers v. Suns -7 | Top | 122-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Indiana vs Phoenix Bettinng on home teams that are on a five or more-game win streak and have won 60 to 70% of their games on the seasons and facing an opponent that has won 40 to 49% of their games on the seasons has earned a 25-4 SU record and 19-8-2 ATS for 70.4% winning bets over the last ten seasons. If the home team we are betting on also defeated this opponent in the last matchup, the record soars to an incredible 21-2 SU and 18-4-1 ATS for 82% winning bets. From the machine learning applications we are informed that Phoenix is 42-19 SU and 46-15 ATS for 75.4% winning bets when scoring 111 or mor epoints and shooting at least 48% from the field in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-13-21 | Iona v. Fairfield +8.5 | Top | 60-51 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
Iona vs Fairfield I recommend playing this bet in two parts consisting of 85% of your 4% bet size on the spread, and 15% on the money line. Depending on your risk appetite a ratio of 90% spread and 10% money line may be more to your liking and is perfectly ok. The point is to not exceed 15% of your 4% amount using the money line. These ratios provide the best total rate of return (ROI) over the course of the season – not just a single day. A few quick hitters. |
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03-13-21 | Ohio State +5.5 v. Michigan | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 1 h 59 m | Show |
Ohio State vs Michigan I recommend playing this bet in two parts consisting of 85% of your 4% bet size on the spread, and 15% on the money line. Depending on your risk appetite a ratio of 90% spread and 10% money line may be more to your liking and is perfectly ok. The point is to not exceed 15% of your 4% amount using the money line. These ratios provide the best total rate of return (ROI) over the course of the season – not just a single day.
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03-13-21 | UMass Lowell v. Hartford -151 | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
UMASS-Lowell vs Hartford 4% Best Bet on Hartford -2.5 points Hartford is the better team at both ends of the court and will control the pace of play. Both teams won their semifinal game last Saturday so they have had seven days of rest and prep time for this Championship game. The pace of play of the entire conference is on eof the slowest in the nation. The AEC averages 68 possessions-per-40-minutes with no team averaging 70 or more. UMASS-Lowell (UML) plays second-fastest at 69.3 poessessions-per-40-minutes and Hartford eighth of the 10-team conference averaging 66.4 possessions. Hartford has a much better defense than UML based on assist-to-turnover ratio. The machine learning applications predict that UML will have at least five more turnovers than Hartford. Teams in the conference final that scpore more points than their season-to-date average and their opponent commits 4 or more turnovers than they do has led to a 9-3-1 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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03-12-21 | Connecticut v. Creighton -1 | Top | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
Connecticut vs Creighton 4% Best Bet on Crieghton -1 Play on neutral court favorites or pick-em that are coming off a blowout win of 20 or more points in their last game and now facing an opponent coming off three consecutive double-digit wins has earned a highly profitable 34-14 ATS record for 71% ATS winners. The machine learning applications predict that Crieghton will have five or fewer tunrovers than UCONN and have the better assists-to-turnover ratio. In games where Creighton has matched or exceeded these measures has produced a 20-3 ATS record over the last five seasons. UCONN is a miserable 4-17 ATS in road games after four consecutive double-digit wins. |
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03-12-21 | Nuggets -3 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-102 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
Denver vs Memphis Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a previous ATS win and with both they and their opponent sporting win precentages between 50 and 60% on the season has made 72.3% winners onm an 81-3-2 ATS record. From the machine learning applications, we learn that Denver is 44-21-2 ATS when scoring at least 111 points in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-11-21 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 81-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
North Carolina vs Virginia Tech |
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03-11-21 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky -3 | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -112 | 1 h 42 m | Show |
Mississippi State vs Kentucky 4% Best Bet on Kentucky -4 points Betting on neutral court teams that are solid on the defensive end allowing 42.5 to 45% opponent shooting and now facing a team that is shooting between 45 and 47.5% and is the better ball handlin team committing no more than 14 turnovers-per-game and their opponent averaging more than 14 turnovers-per-game has earned a 35-13-1 ATS record over the last five seasons for 73% winning bets. Calipari is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a game in which his team made 13 or more 3-point shots. |
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03-10-21 | Duke v. Louisville +3 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 58 m | Show |
Duke vs Louisville 6:30 PM EST, March 9, 2021 4% Best Bet on Louisville plus the points and NO sprinkle on the money line. Betting on all teams lined within 3.5 points between on either side of pick, that is coming off a double-digit loss and facing a foe that they already defeated earlier in the season as an underdog has earned a 55-28-1 ATS mark good for 67% winners over the last five seasons. Duke is 0-7 ATS when facing solid rebounding teams that are outrebounding opponents by 5 or more per game. |
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03-09-21 | Long Beach State +2.5 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 85-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Long Beach State vs. CS-Northridge The Big West Conference (BWC) is a weak conference, however, their tournament is going to provide many entertaining and dram-filled games. This matchup is one of them. UC-Santa Barbara is the cream of the conference and will be favored in every game they play. They went 15-3 in conference play and 19-4 overall this season, but they must win this tournament because there will not be any at-large bids given to this conference. The pace of play will be aboverage based on the conference and national ratings. LBST ranks 13th nationally and fastest in the BWC averaging 84.3 possessions-per-40-minutes. Cal State Northridge (CSN) ranks 99th nationally and 4th in the BWC with an average of 71.3 possessions-per-40-minutes. LBST has advantages over the CSN defense in most offensive efficiency measures including overall efficiwency in points-scored per 100 possessions. Moreover, LBST, has a significantly better defense ranking only 198th nationally in overall defensive efficiencies. CSN ranks 345th allowing 111.5 points-per-100-opponent possessions. A few quick hitters. CSN head coach Gottfried is just 1-9 ATS in road games facing teams that are getting outrebounded by at least four or more rebounds-per-game from the 16th game on out. LBST head coach Monson is 24-12-1 ATS in road/neutral venues facing a team that is allowing an average of 45 or higher opponent shooting. |
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03-08-21 | St. Mary's +18.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 55-78 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga 4% Best Bet on St. Mary’s +17.5-points Let’s start with a proven and highly profitable betting system that has earned a 62-26-2 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. The system requires us to bet on double-digit underdogs that are coming off two games scoring 55 or fewer points and facing an opponent that has scored 75 or more points in three consecutive games. That is all there is to it. St. Mary’s is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or more of their last six games pver the last two seasons. Gonzaga is just 11-24 in roiad or neutral sites coming off three or more home games installed as a favorite in each one of them. |
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03-08-21 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Cleveland State -3.5 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
Wisconmsin-Milwaukee vs Cleveland State The line for this game is starting to ‘steam’ with Cleveland State, who has garnered just 33% of the tickets but has accounted for 87% of the money bet at about 2:00 ET. I do think the line will continue to grind higher, so if you can get -3.5 points grab it. You are more likely to get -4 points, but that is ok as well given that the machine learning applications are projecting a Cleveland State win by at least 8-points. Betting on home favorites of less than 9.5 points that are revenging a home loss and with that opponent coming off an upset win over a conference foe has earned a solid 72-36-4 ATS for 67% winning bet over the last five seasons. Back on January 22 and 23, Cleveland State played a back-to-back home set with Milwaukee and split the games. They won the first and lost the second setting up the revenge. Milwaukee is coming off a monster 94-92 major upset road win over then-conference favorite Wright State as 13-point underdogs. Back on January 22 and 23, Cleveland State played a back-to-back home set with Milwaukee and split the games. They won the first and lost the second setting up the revenge. Milwaukee is coming off a monster 94-92 major upset road win over then-conference favorite Wright State as 13-point underdogs. |
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03-07-21 | Texas -7 v. TCU | Top | 76-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Texas vs. TCU The regular-season finale for both teams in this B-12 matchup. Texas has struggled with consistent ball-handling all season and ranks 195th with a 0.934 assist-to-turnover ratio. Despite their troubles holding on to the ball, TCU ranks 334th in defensive assists-to-turnover ratio. Texas will look like an elite passing team such as Iowa and others matched up against a very weak TCU defense. The Texas defense is the engine of the team. They are aggressive and rank 24th with an outstanding 0.757 defensive assist-to-turnover ratio. TCU is going to struggle against this style of defense and look for at least five more turnovers than their season average of 13.8 turnovers-per-game, based on the machine learning applications. Further, TCU is 14-26 ATS in games in which their opponent committed fewer than 14 turnovers in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-07-21 | Michigan -8 v. Michigan State | Top | 64-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
Michiagn vs Michigan State Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have won at least 80% of their games on the season, are coming off a home win against a conference foe, and facing a conference foe winning 51 to 60% of their games has erned a 73-33-3 ATS record for 59% winning records over the past five seasons. Michigan is 12-1 ATS when facing a team that averages just 6 or fewer steals-per-game this season. From the machine learning applications, we learnm that there is a high probability that Michigan will score a minimum of 75 points. Michigan is 8-0 ATS when scoring 75 or more points in games played over the last two seasons. MSU is 0-7 ATS when allowing 75 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-07-21 | Elon v. James Madison -4 | Top | 72-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
ELON vs. James Madison JMU has won nine of their last 11 games and are the top-seed with Northeastern the second-seed and both teams having identical 8-2 conference records. ELON had a shortened regular season, but amn amazing roller coaster ride losing eight straight games and then starting the current 5-game win streak and covered the spread in all five games. During the losing streak ELON shot 38% or wrose in six of the games. During the five-game win streak they have shot not lower than 45% from the field. ELON started Buford, Hannah, McIntosh, Ndugba, and Wright to start the 5-game win streak and that has been the starting lineup in each of the five wins. McIntosh is the energy that fuels ELON scoring 15.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, and 2.4 APG. Elon, however, lost two back-to-back games to James Madison at the Atlantic Union Bank Center, which is hosting the CAA Tournament. ELON is 0-8 ATS on the road or neutral court setting in a game with a total between 140 and 150 points. JMU is 6-0 ATS after having lost tow of their last three games. |
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03-06-21 | Duke v. North Carolina UNDER 149.5 | Top | 73-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Duke vs North Carolina Duke does shoot the ball well and ranks 42nd with a 54% effective FG percentage, but they are not good, in fact, horrid ranking 336th with a 0.232 free throws attempts to field goals attempted ratio. UNC does not shoot the ball well, but they are the second best offensive rebounding team in the nation. They get the offensive board on 39.6% of their missed shots. Duke has been playing much better of late and rank 16th in current momentum attributed to a 9th best ranking in second-chance scoring opportunities. Duke has been playing better on the road than at home too. I expect the pace of play to be much slower than what UNC has averaged on the season. Krzyzewski is 18-7-1 UNDER when on the road and coming off a road game in which they and their opponent scored at least 75 points. Williams is 19-8-1 UNDER cpoming off a tough loss of no more than three points to a conference foe. |
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03-06-21 | Florida State -7 v. Notre Dame | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
Florida State vs Notre Dame Noon ET, March 6, 2021 4% Best Bet on FSU – 6.5 points My opponent-adjusted power ratings illustrate and underscore the major mismatch of this ACC game. FSU is the 8th best team in the nation and Notre Dame is ranked 75th. Further, with a 9-14 SU record, Notre Dame has very little incentive or motivation knowing that they have little or no chance to advance to the NCAA Tournament. FSU ranks 15th in scoring offense averaging 79.9 PPG and will have little trouble, based on my machine learning applications, exceeding 81 points in this game. FSU is 8-1 ATS when scoring 81 or more points this season and 117-12 SU and 81-25-3 ATS for 76.4% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. FSU has a defense that at times during games forgets to play defense. However, Notre Dame’s defense ranks among the worst in the nation as evidenced by a 1.67 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio that ranks 345th nationally. This ratio means that Notre Dame’s opponents had 1.67 assists for every turnover they committed and could easily move the ball from side-to-side and find the best percentage shot available. FSU is coming off a blowout 93-64 win over Boston College and covered the spread as 19-point home favorites. Notre Dame is coming off their fourth straight loss and to the spread with an 80-69 uninspired defeat at the hands of NC State as a 3.5-point favorite. Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 10-points that won at home by 10 or more points in their previous game and now facing a host that is off an upset loss as a favorite has earned bettors of this system a profit-making 74-42-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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03-06-21 | Georgetown +9.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 82-98 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
Georgetown vs Connecticut Noon ET, March 6, 2021 4% Best Bet on Georgetown +9.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. Georgetown is heating up and maybe peaking at just the right time under Hall-of-Famer head coach Patrick Ewing. They have won and covered four of their last five games with wins over Butler, Xavier, DePaul, and Seton Hall. The lone loss was against these same Connecticut Huskies and know that Georgetown is 6-0 ATS this season playing with revenge. From the machine learning applications, we learn that Georgetown is 7-0 ATS this season when scoring 71 or more points and their opponent commits at least 12 turnovers. Over the last 15 seasons, this combination of performance measures has produced a highly profitable 128-19 SU record and 96-35-7 ATS mark good for 73.3% winning bets. |
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03-06-21 | Loyola Maryland +6.5 v. Navy | Top | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
Loyola-Maryland vs Navy Noon ET, March 6, 2021 4% Best Bet on Loyola-Maryland +4.5 points and sprinkle a little more on the money line. This is matchup in the quarterfinals of the Patriot League Tournament. Loyola is led by three seniors in Santi Aldama, Luke Johnson, and Isaiah Hart. Navy is the top-seed in this tournament, but make no mistake about it, Loyola is fully capable of getting the upset win. The trio of seniors as accounted for 47.5% of the offensive production for the season. In addition, they have stepped up their games and floor leadership by accounting for 58% of the offensive production in the last. Five games. Aldama is the best player of the trio and is averaging a team-high 21.4 PPG and 10.1 rebounds-per-game. The COVID-19 protocols have compounded the Navy’s problems with guard Cam Davis listed as questionable for this game. He is averaging a team-high 17.1 PPG including 2.8 assists-per-game, and 2.7 rebounds-per-game, and the Navy bench is not deep enough to offset the loss of his production at both ends of the court. The pivot for this game centers on 70 based on my machine learning applications that project Navy will not score more than 70 points. Loyola is 0-9 SU when they have allowed more than 70-points and a perfect 4-0 when they have allowed fewer than 70 in games played this season. They are 30-14-2 ATS in road games and scoring 65 or more points over the last 10 seasons. |
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03-05-21 | Middle Tennessee +10 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 54-63 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Middle Tennessee State vs Florida Atlantic 4% Best Bet on the Middle Tennessee State +10 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line too. Betting on road underdogs of 10 to 20 points that is coming off three consecutive losses to conference foes and facing an opponent coming off a 20 or more-point win over a conference rival has earned a profit-making 53-24-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons. FAU is a money-burning 11-36 ATS facing offenses that are averaging 64 or fewer PPG. FAU is 20-48 ATS after having won three of their last four games. |
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03-05-21 | Portland +13.5 v. Santa Clara | Top | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Portland vs Santa Clara This matchup is in the first round of the West Coast Tournament being held at Orleans Plaza, NV. Simply stated, my machine learning applications and analytical comparisons between these two teams conclude that Santa Clara should not be favored by this many points and more likely that this game ends in a single-digit margin. Betting on road teams of 10 to 19.5 points after being beaten by the spread by at least six points in three consecutive games has earned bettors a solid 201-137-3 ATS record for 60% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. Santa Clara is just 5-15-1 ATS after a game in which they covered the spread over the last two seasons. Santa Clara head coach Sendek is just 5-19 ATS when facing excellent free throw shooting teams making at least 77% of their free-throw attempts. At the end of the day, this is too many points and on top of it, Santa Clara’s guard Ahmed Ali is questionable with an Achilles injury. |
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03-04-21 | St. Joe's +4 v. Massachusetts | Top | 66-100 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
St. Joesphs vs Massachusetts 1:00 PM EST, March 4, 2021 4% Best bet on the St. Joes +3 points and sproinkle a bit more on the money line, but omnly if the line is +3 or more. The St. Joes basketball team must be enjoying the city of Richmond quite a bit having knocked off Richmond University as 14.5 point dogs and are now coming off an upset win over LaSalle. My analytics say they make it three winning upsets in a row. UMASS and St. Joes play at a fast pace with both rankings in the top-50 nationally. However, the faster pace favors St. Joes given their edge in positive momentum coming into this game. They have played their best basketball as a team right now and rank 35th in consistency ratings. From the machine learning predictive applications, we learn that St. Joes is 70-35 ATS in road games and scoring between 75 and 81 points over the last two seasons. In addition, 45-24-1 ATS in road games where both they and their opponent exceeded 75 points. |
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03-03-21 | Jazz v. 76ers +3.5 | Top | 123-131 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
Utah Jazz vs Philadelphia 76ers The best in the West takes the best in the East and is the last game for each team ahead of the All-Star break. The 76ers lost inexplicably lost to the Cleveland Cavs, but bounced back with their best team performance of the season. The Sixers played a stellar all-around game in a 130-114 win over the visiting Indiana Pacers on Monday. Shake Milton gave Philadelphia a spark off the bench with 26 points versus the Pacers. Joel Embiid added 24 points and 13 rebounds, Furkan Korkmaz contributed 19 points and Ben Simmons had 18 in a balanced effort. The bench posted a season-best 67 points as the Sixers improved their home record to an Eastern Conference-best 15-3. 76ers are 20-4 ATS in home gamesd when facing explosive teams that are scoring 110 or more points-per-game ovcer the last two seasons. From the machine learning applications, we learn that the 76ers are 30-1 SU and 26-5 ATS for 84% winning bets in home games when they have scored 111 or more points and held their opponent to 35% shooting from beyond the arc in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-03-21 | NC State v. Notre Dame -2.5 | Top | 80-69 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
NC State vs Notre Dame Notre Dame has several team angles supporting this play that was produced by my machine learning applications. Notre Dame is 8-1 ATS wjhen playing against a marginal winning team sporting a win percentage not higher than 60% in games played over the last three seasons; head coach Brey is 19-7 ATS when facing opponents with a winning record not exceeding 60%. From the machine learning applications, we learn that Notre Dame is predicted to shoot at least 48% from the field. In past games when Notre Dame has made 48% or better form the field has earned a 115-52-4 ATS record over the last 15 seasons and when NC State has allowed an opponent 48% or better shooting has been a money-burning 9-21-1 ATS in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-03-21 | Oregon State v. Utah -5.5 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 30 m | Show |
Oregon State vs Utah Here are some quick hitters supporting Utah. Oregon State is 15-33 ATS after two consecutive wins to conference foes. Utah head coach is 31-18 ATS revenging a same -season loss and 36-16 ATS reveging any loss (same season or not) in which his team scored 60 or fewer points. From the machine learning applications, wqe learn that Utah is 24-3 SU and 20-5-2 ATS for 80% winning bets when making 79% or more of their free throws and committing 13 or fewer turnovers in home games played over the last 10 seasons. |
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03-02-21 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Cleveland State -7.5 | Top | 104-108 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Fort Wayne vs Cleveland State Wright State and Cleveland State are the giants in the Horizon Conference this season. Both teams sport 16-4 conference records with CSU is the No 1 seed. Make no mistake about it, Wright State is the best team by a large margin. Fort Wayne is the 10-seed and defeated Wisconsin-Green Bay 89-84 as 5.5-point underdogs. Fort Wayne plays at an average D-1 clip ranking 146th averaging 70.4 possesssions-per-40-minutes. CSU is ranked 228th averaging 69 possessions-per-40-minutes. That ranking is a bit misleading as they only average 1.5 fewer possessionos than Fort Wayne and reflects the team density in this metric. CSU has a monster advantage on the offensive end. They will take a lot of mid-range shots knowing they rank 17th nationally and will be going against a Fort Wayne defense that ranks 316th defending mid-range shots. This matchup, alone, projects to a double-digit CSU win. CSU’s junior guard Tre Gomillion is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. He is third-high on the team averaging 9.5 PPG. If he is unable to go tonight, there are several good guards ready to jump off the bench and contribute. Alec Oglesby is one of those players. He is a 6-5 freshman from The Rock School in Gainesville, FL and has the skillset to step up large. I would not be surprised if he ended up being the high-scorer for CSU in this game. |
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03-02-21 | Arkansas v. South Carolina UNDER 157.5 | 101-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
Arkansas vs South Carolina Arkansas needs to win one of their two remaining regular-season games to lock in the No 2-seed in the SEC Tournament. They have been scorching hot in February and have won nine consecutive conference games including wins over then-No. 10 Missouri and then-No. 6 Alabama. This is a spot that a juggernaut, like Arkansas, can experience some serious regression in performance. I am not suggesting a bet on SC, but rather the Arkansas offense that ranks 35th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency measures may play like the 100th ranked team. Betting the ‘UNDER’ in home games with a total between 150 and 159.5 points is playing their third game of the week, and have lost four of their last five games has earned a 138-78-3 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons. SC had lost four games in a row until they knocked off Georgia in a 91-70 road win and covered as 5-point underdogs. However, SC is 15-5 UNDER following a double-digit road win. |
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03-02-21 | Baylor v. West Virginia +4.5 | Top | 94-89 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
No 3 Baylor vs No 6 West Virginia In this mtachup WVU has the majority of advantages at both ends of the court. They have played a tougher schedule ranking 10th as compared to Baylor’s 94th ranking in this category. No doubt West Virginia has a ton of positive momentum coming into this game and are at the top od their game right nowBaylor has been winning of late, but their efficiency measures had been deteriorating ahead of the Kansas loss. WVU is a much more consistent team week in and week out. Most importantly, WVU likes to play faster than Baylor, who will not be able to withstand the WVU offensive assault. Baylor has played their worst games on the road this season and just because you won a game and covered the spread does not always translate into an ‘A-grading’. Betting on home teams as a dog in a matchup of two teasm that are solid rebounding teams averaging at least three more rebounds than their opponents and is a solid defensive team allowing 45% or lower opponent shooting and now facing a team that is an excellent shooting team making 48% or more of their shots-per-game has earned a 25-5-1 ATS record good for 83.3% winning bets over the last five seasons. Under head coach Huggins, WVU is 41-16-2 ATS in hmome games and coming off a rouble-digit win. I believe WVU will win this game outright. |
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02-28-21 | Michigan State v. Maryland -2.5 | Top | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
Michigan State vs Maryland 2:30 ET, February 28, 2021 4% Best Bet on Maryland -2.5-points. As a bonus pick, I like the OVER in this matchup too, and suggest a 2 or 3% betting amount at any price at 134 or lower. A 2% parlay is also an option betting the OVER and Maryland. A simplistic betting system does not mean it does not have the ability to be highly profitable. This one has earned a 55-29 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons and instructs us to be home teams that are facing a foe, who is on a three or more-game win streak and has a winning record not higher than 60% on the season. Adding a filter that the home team has a higher effective FG percentage than the opponent and that the home team sports an effective FG percentage above 50% improves the system to a 29-9 ATS record good for 76% winning bets over the last ten seasons. Maryland plays one of the slowest-paced styles of basketball ranking 333rd in the enation. However, that is more than priced into the market and my machine learning applications project a high probability that 140 or more points will be scored. MSU has played significantly worse on the road than in their home games. MSU is just 2-13 ATS facing teams, who like to take the ‘three’ and average at least 21 3-points shot-attempts-per-game on the season. |
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02-27-21 | Wolves +4 v. Wizards | Top | 112-128 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Washington 7:00 PM EST, February 27, 2021 4% NBA Best Bet on Minnesota +4.5 points and add a sprinkle using the money line. Betting on underdogs coming off three consecutive road losses and installed as a 3 to 9.5 point underdogs and facing a non-conference host have earned a 40-16-2 ATS record for 71.4% winning bets over the last seven seasons. Plus, if the the road underdog is on the road again, the record improves to an amzing 23-4-2 ATS for 85% winning bets. From the machine learning applications and projections for this ganme, we learn that Minneosta is 25-1 SU and 24-2 ATS for 92.3% winning bets when they have scored 111 or more points, had fewer turnovers than their opponent, and held that opponent to 45% or lower shooting in games played over the last five seasons. |
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02-27-21 | Florida State v. North Carolina UNDER 152.5 | Top | 70-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
No 11 Florida State vs North Carolina 4% Best Bet UNDER the posted total of 151 points. FSU is the dominant force in the ACC this season and enter this showdown with UNC on a four-game win streak and went 2-1-1 ATS. They are on an 11-game ‘OVER’ streak and shot over 50% from the field in five of those games. Most notably, they shot an incredible 71% from the field in a 105-73 destruction of NC State back on January 13. UNC has been largely inconsistent this season as demonstrated in their last two games. They destroyed Louisville 99-54 as a 4.5-point home favorite and then inexplicably lost to Marquette 83-70 installed as a 9.5-point home favorite. They have had games where the defense does disappear of they forget how to score. However, in this matchup, their full attention and focus will on FSU knowing that a win will strengthen their NCAA resume. This is the highest total this season in FSU games. Over the last five seasons, ranked teams that are playing in a road game with the highest total of the season, has seen the ‘UNDER’ earn a 44-24 UNDER record for 65% winning bets. FSU plays an average-pace based on D-1 standards, but can really turn up the defensive heat. They rank 27th allowing 40.2% opponent shooting and 6th when adjusted by opponent and SOS. UNC is once again a great renounding team that ranks 2nd averaging 42.5 Rebounds-per-game, and third averaging 13.2 offensive rebounds-per-game. Both teams will look to be strong on their defensive glass and minimize the opponent’s second-chance scoring opportunities. UNC ranks best and FSU second-best in second chance scoring, but both are solid in their defensive second-chance scoring as well. So, bottom line is that second chance scoring for both teams is going to be much lower than their averages. FSU is 32-14-1 UNDER after four consecutive games committing no more than 14 turnovers under head coach Hamilton. |
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02-26-21 | Kings -2 v. Pistons | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
Sacramento Kings vs Detroit Pistons 8:00 ET, February 26, 2021 4% Best Bet on the Sacramento Kings -1 point. I do not see any value in making this a money line bet. Betting on teams that are playing on back-to-back nights and have lost three consecutive road games straight-up has earned a 24-21 SU record and 35-9-1 ATS record for 79.5% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system tells us to bet Sacramento. If the current game is another road game for the ailing road warriors, and they defeated this opponent in the last matchup, the record goes to 16-2 ATS for 89% winning bets over the last five seasons. Sacramento is on the road and did defeat Detroit in their last matchup. This is the fifth and final road game for the Kings, who have been losers of nine straight games and to the spread. Since 1995, there have been 21 teams, who have gone on a SU and ATS 9 or more-game losing streak. These teams have gone 12-9 ATS for 57% and drilling down to filter only road games, the record is 7-4 ATS for 64% winners. From the machine learning applications, we are informed that Sacramento is expected to score at least 111 points. The Kings are 45-20-2 ATS for 69% winners over the past five seasons when scoring 111 or more points in a road game. The Pistons are 16-37 ATS for 30% winning bets in home games in which they allowed 111 or more points. J |
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02-26-21 | Purdue v. Penn State -1 | Top | 73-52 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Purdue vs Penn State 7:00 PM EST, February 26, 2021 3% Best Bet on Penn State (PSU) +1.5-points Purdue has evolved into a well-respected team in the Big Ten that has the talent to take down one of the giants, like Michigan or Ohio State. Recency bias is a amajor part of the opening line and subsequent line movement. However, this line opened with Purdue as a 1.5 point road favorite and has quickly reversed and now has PSU priced as a 1-point favorite. Line movement this strong is quite bullish and positive for backing PSU. My opponent-adjusted power ratings show PSU as a -2-point home favorite and agrees with Haslam Metrics too. Don’t be fooled by PSU and their 5-11 conference record. The Big Ten is one of the strongest conferences I have seen in more than a decade. According to KenPom, PSU would be a pick-em to -1.5 point favorite over North Carolina, Clemson, Arizona, Oklahoma State, and UCLA. So, now we have a truly desperate PSU team that is coming off a hard-fought win at Nebraska. PSU had five players scoring in double-figures and team-leader Mayreon Jones had a career-high 29-points. So, PSU comes into this game off their best one of the season. From the database queries, we learn that PSU is a highly profitable 15-3 ATS when coming off a game in which 155 or more points were scored spanning the last three seasons. They are also 7-0 ATS off a conference road win spanning the last three seasons and I see this angle moving to 8-0 ATS tonight. I am on a 12-5 ATS NBA and NCAAM Best Bets run. Over the long-term spanning many seasons, I am 407-309 (57%) over my last 714 basketball picks, which has made the Dime bettor a profit of $72,120 since January 1, 2018. So, take a few minutes and purchase a cost-saving longer-term subscription so that you never miss a play. |
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02-26-21 | Drake v. Bradley +9 | Top | 80-71 | Push | 0 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Drake vs Bradley Carver Arena, Peoria, IL 7:00 PM EST, February 26, 2021 10-UNIT best bet on Bradley +9 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. I have had the best success over the course of a season by taking my 5% amount and playing 80% of that amount on the line, and then 20% using the money line. Drake is tied with Loyola Chicago at 14-2 on top of the Missouri Valley Conference standings. Many of you, who listen to my live Predictive Playbook that is broadcast on Periscope and YouTube channels, already know I live Loyola-Chicago quite a bit and have bet them at 50-1 long shot to win the NCAAM Championship. I do not believe Drake is even the second-best team in the conference and is vulnerable in this matchup against Bradley. This is the first of back-to-back games against each other and they will play again tomorrow. The pace of this game will be slower than the average pace is for the MVC. Bradley ranks 260th and Drake 250th in possessions-per-40-minutes. A key factor in this bet is that Drake has played far worse in road games, than at home. Plus, Drake, despite winning four of their last five games has been playing at an inferior level compared to earlier this season when they were scorching hot. Drake is coming off back-to-back home wins over Evansville, who ranks 234th overall in the Haslem metrics and 240th with my opponent-adjusted PR. Bradley is a much better team than Evansville, and it is not even close. Bradley ranks 180th in PR and Haslem ranks them 182nd. Bradley head coach Wardle is 27-11-1 ATS after giving up five or fewer offensive rebounds in their previous game. Bradley plays their best defense in a fundamentally sound fashion and not look to be overly aggressive to get steals and turnovers. So, Wardle is 23-12-1 AYTS in games following back-to-back games where the respective opponent did not commit more than 11 turnovers. Wardle knows how to play against strong defenses as noted by his 15-6 ATS record in home games facing an opponent that has allowed 42% opponent shooting on the season. Bradley lost their team-leading scorer and rebounder in senior Elijah Childs, who was suspended from the team on February 17. Bradley has used nine different starting lineups this season and head coach Wardle had been juggling starting lineups and playing minutes even before this suspension. At the D-1 level, bench players cannot wait to get their chance to showcase their talents in live-game situations. I believe that the loss of Childs will be more than offset by players getting that chance to have more minutes of playing time. Keep an eye on Ja’Shon Henry tonight. He was averaging around 20-minutes-per-game but has had 28,24, and 30-minutes of playing time in his last three games. He has scored 43 of his season total of 203 points and shot 15-for-24 for 63% in these last three games. Take Bradley plus the points as a 10-UNIT Best Bet |
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02-24-21 | NC State v. Virginia -11 | Top | 68-61 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
NC State vs No 15 Virginia 6:30 PM ERST, February 24, 2021 4% Best Bet on Virginia -11.5 points UVA enters this matchup off their first two-gamne losing streak of the season. They were blown out by a very good FSU team by 19 points in Tallahassee and most recently lost a tough 1-point game at Duke. Their defense as awful in the losses allowing 50% shooting to FSU and 51% to Duke. Their defense is quite good and you can expect a much better performance against much weaker opponent in NC State. Betting on team that are coming off two upset road losses and now facing an opponent that is revenging a home loss to this team has earned an outstanding 68-31-3 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. If the opponent is the road team and is revenging that loss, where they failed to score more than 60 points, the record soars to 33-9-1 ATS for 78% winning bets. NC State lost 64-13 as 7-point home underdogs to UVA on February 3. NC State is 1-9 ATS revenging a home loss versus opponent in games played over the last three seasons. My expectations see UVA bouncing back with a big game and gets the ATS win. J |
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02-23-21 | Wizards +12 v. Clippers | Top | 116-135 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Washington Wizards vs LA Clippers Betting on road underdogs that have won 25 to 35% of their games on the season and coming off a road win, now facing a host with a winning record. When the game in question occurs after the 15th game of the regular season, the record soars to 51-15-2 ATS for 77% winning bets. If the game is after game number 25, the record then goes to a money-making 43-10-2 ATS machine for 81.1% winning bets. I was on the Wizards last night in their road upset win over the Lakers and I see no reason not to back them again tonight. They are playing on back-to-back nights, but with no travel since the Lakers and Clippers both play home games at the Staples Center. The Clippers are playing their eighth game in the past 14 days and will have fatigue issues of their own. More important is their 5-game win and ATS win streak. From the machine learning applications we are informed that the Wizards are 39-14-1 ATS for 74% winning bets in road games, scoring at least 111 points and having the better assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the last five seasons. |
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02-23-21 | Georgia Tech +3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 69-53 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech Georgia Tech is the better ball-handling team ranking 16th nationally with a 1.423 asssist-to-turnover ratio and matched a rather non-aggressive V-Tech defense that ranks 114th with a 0.906 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio. G-Tech has the better effective field-goal-percentage, the better free throw shooting percentage, and the better shooting efficiency measures that can win this game outright. V-Tech is a money-burning 3-13 ATS when facing good bvall-handling teasm that are averaging 14 or fewer turnovers-per-game in games played after the 15th one of the regular season. They are also 7-20-1 SATS in games following a four-game stretch in which they committed 14 or fewer turnovers in each one. G-Tech Pastner is 6-0 ATS following back-to-back games in which his team made 78% or more of their free throw attempts. |
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02-23-21 | Akron v. Ohio +1.5 | Top | 73-90 | Win | 100 | 2 h 17 m | Show |
Akron vs Ohio To begin with, I like this matchup knowing that Ohio has played their best games at their home venue while Akron had had their poorest outings in road games this season. Akron also ranks a miserable 322nd nationally in overall performance consistency and gives Ohio a big advantage as they are ranked in the middle of the pack of the 357 D-1 programs. Akron loves shooting the ‘three’, but Ohio is a solid 12-4 ATS facing teams, who are averaging 21 or more 3-point shot attempts after game number 15 of the regular season and spanning the last two seasons.
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02-22-21 | Texas State -3 v. Arkansas State | Top | 57-52 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
Texas State vs Arkansas State Here are a few quick hitters that reinforce the projections produced by the machine learning applications. Texas State is 6-0 ATS after the 15th game of the regular season and now facing an opponent that is outscoring their opposition by at least 4 PPG in games played over the last two seasons. Texas State is 10-2 ATS in road games after habving won four of their last five games spanning the last five seasons. Ark State 1-8 ATS after a win of three or fewer points spanning the last three seasons. Steals will be a significant factor in this matychup and it favors Texas State, who ranks 127th nationally in quick scoring off of steals. Ark State ranks a miserable 297th in the defensive of this metric. Texas Tech is the vastly better shooting team and going up against one of the worst defenses in NCAA basketball in Ark State. |
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02-22-21 | Syracuse v. Duke -5.5 | Top | 71-85 | Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
Syracuse vs Duke Syracuse is coming off a historic win over Notre Dame in a game they trailed by 20 points marking the largest comeback since 2005. Duke is coming off a huge and much-needed win over No. 7 UVA. Betting on home teams after game number 15 of the regular season, that are shooting at least 45% from the field, and have shot 50% or better in their last three games has earned a solid 145-80-5 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. Duke is 10-2 ATS when facing excellent ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game spanning the last two seasons. |
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02-22-21 | Pepperdine +5.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
Pepperdine vs St. Mary’s 6:00 PM EST, Fenbruary 22, 2021 4% Best Bet on Oregon +5.5 points and a sprinkle on the money line. From the machine learning applications, Pepperdine is an outstanding 9-0 ATS when getting at least 37 rebounds and outrebounding their oppoment in games played over the last three seasons. Further, they are 30-15-1 ATS for 67% winning bets in games played over the last five seasons when they have scored 71 or more points and had fewer turnovers than their opponent. |
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02-21-21 | 76ers -3 v. Raptors | Top | 103-110 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Toronto 7:00 PM EST, February 21, 2021 4% Best Bet on the 76ers -3.5 points The 76ers ended their 3-game losing streak with two solid wins. They defeated Chicago 112-105 and were led by Joel Embiid’s career-best 50-point game and has played eight games scoring 30 or more points and get 10 or more rebounds this season. The 76ers played without Ben Simmons, who was suffering from the stomach flu. He scored a career-best 42 points, including 12 assists, and nine rebounds, in the loss to the Utah Jazz Monday. So, the 76ers are emerging as a powerful force to be reckoned with in the NBA’s Eastern Conference. Toronto’s defense will not hold up against the 76ers attack. Toronto is 10-24 ATS in home games (even this game is in Tampa) with a total between 220 and 229.5 spanning the last three seasons. This season, the 76ers are 11-2-1 ATS after having won two of their last three games. Toronto is also 73-118 ATS in home games in which both they and their opponent score 105 or more points. From the machine learning applications, we will be expecting the 76ers to score at least 111 points and attempt at least 88 shots. In past games installed as a favorite, the 76ers are 63-7 SU and 50-18-2 ATS for 74% winning bets when they met or exceeded those performance measures. |
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02-21-21 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +6 | Top | 68-51 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Wisconsin vs Northwestern 7:00 PM EST, February 21, 2021 4% Best bet on Northwestern +7 points and sprinkle a bit more using the money line. Despite the different and opposite season-long records, these two teams are much more equal in performance levels and reflect how good the Big Ten Conference is this season. Wisconsin is the better team on paper, but has played their worst games on the road and is vulnerable to an upset loss. Both teams are excellent ball-handling ones. Wisconsin ranks 11th sporting a 1.457 assist-to-turnover ratio and Northwestern ranks 27th with a 1.311 assist-to-turnover ratio. Northwestern has the better and more efficient offense while Wisconsin has an elite and efficient defense. The Northwestern defense matches up well against Wisconsin’s offense that ranks about equal to the average D-1 program. Northwestern ranks 50th in defensive field goal percentage. In addition, Wisconsin has not been a threat on their offensive glass and ranks 285th converting second-chance scoring opportunities into points. Northwestern is solid in rebounding on the defensive end and will minimize Wisconsin’s second-chance scoring opportunities. Wisconsin has not played their worst games by many measures at home and Northwestern, despite, a losing record, is one of the more consistent teams in the nation. There you have it, Bet Northwestern plus the points. |
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02-21-21 | Penn State +11.5 v. Iowa | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Penn State vs Iowa Let’s start with a betting system that ahs earned a 70-22-3 ATS record for 76% winning bets over the last five season. The requirements are to bet on double-digit underdogs up to an including 19.5 points that has gone UNDER the total by at least 24 points in their last three games and now facing an opponent that has gone UNDER the total by 44 or mor epoints spanning their last seven games. Betting on double digit underdogs after game number 15 that are averaging 68 to 75 PPG and now facing an opponent coming off three straight UNDER games and averages at least 78 PPG on the season has earned a 77-38-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets. PSU has played their bets games away from Happy Valley and Iowa has played by far their worst at home this season. The advantage that PSU has against the Iowa defense is that they take great care of the ball, despite ranking 13th nationally in field goal attempt rate, and are extremely good ranking 25th in potential quick points off of steals. PSU is 15-3-1 ATS coming off a game in which 155 or more points were scored spanning the last three seasons. |
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02-21-21 | Michigan v. Ohio State +1.5 | Top | 92-87 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
No 3 Michigan vs No 4 Ohio State This matchup pits two heavyweights in the Big Ten Conference and the winner of this game is almost guaranteed a No 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Despite being ranked No 3 in the nation, Michigan has been largely inconsistent and have played poorly in road games that they won. Turnovers will determine the winner of this game and that definitely favors OSU, who rank 11th committing just 10.4 turnovers-per-game on the season. OSU ranks 10th-best posting a 13.3% turnovers-per-play percentage and 15th averaging just 4.8 opponent steals-per-game. Neither team’s defense looks to generate turnovers and instead play fundamentally sound defense. Michigan ranks 338th averaging just 10.8 opponent turnovers-per-game and OSU ranks 328th averaging 10.7 opponent turnovers-per-game. Free throws will also be an integral part of an OSU win noting they rank 4th making an average of 17.5 free throws-per-game and 22nd in free throw attempts averaging 22.7 per-game. Michigan ranks 172 averaging 13.0 free throws-pergame and a horrid 234th averaging 17 free-throw-attempts-per-game. So, in an even matchup of giants, every possession matters more and the critical scoring opportunity possessions favor OSU. |
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02-20-21 | Heat +4 v. Lakers | Top | 96-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Miami vs LA Lakers For starters, the Lakers are a money-losing 12-3-3 ATS facing struggling teams that are getting outscored by 3 or more-PPG spanning the last three seasons. Plus, they are a miserable22-46-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons. Miami is 22-8-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in four or more of their last six games spanning the last three seasons. The betting line of -3.5 and a total of 208 points implies a final score of 106-102 Lakers win. The machine learning applications predict that Miami will score at least 101 points and will make at least 14 3-point shots. When Miami has mewt or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned an outstanding 31-13-1 ATS in road games spanning the last five seasons. |
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02-20-21 | Illinois v. Minnesota UNDER 146 | Top | 94-63 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
Illinois vs Minnesota Betting the UNDER in games after he 15th game of the season and where the road team is a great shooting team making at least 47.4% of their shots and is facing an opponent that is allowing 42 to 45% shooting has earned a crazy 820-600 record for 58% winners over the last 20 seasons. Minnesota is 8-0 UNDER after the 15th game of the season and facing an elite opponent that is outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points-per-game spanning the last three seasons. They are also 6-0 UNDER following four consecutive games committing 11 or fewer turnovers in games played over the last three seasons. Pitino is 21-7-1 UNDER as the head coach of Minnesota when facing elite teams that are outscoring their opponents by 12 or more PPG. |
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02-20-21 | Connecticut v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
Connecticut vs No 10 Villanova Finneran Pavilion, Villanova, PA 1:00 PM EST, February 20, 2021 4% Best Bet on Villanova -6.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the Villanova team total at 70.5 points. This team total bet is valid up to and including 75-points. The line for this game opened with Villanova installed as a 7.5-point favorite and the [public betting community jumped on UCONN forcing the price down to the current -6.5-point level. The betting behavior is a classic example of recency bias based on the last few games played by both teams. The bias certainly does not reflect the true strength of each team and the result is that we get an exceptionally cheap price to bet Villanova. In their last game, Villanova lost on the road to then-No 19 Creighton 86-70. Creighton shot an incredible 59.3% from the field and could have made shots with their eyes closed. Villanova struggled shooting just 37.5% and 31.3% from beyond the arc. However, they had just seven turnovers and shot 12-for-13 from the charity stripe for 92.3%. Villanova is 11-2 ATS after a game in which they made 88% or more of their free throws and 32-16-1 ATS after back-to-back games allowing nine or fewer offensive rebounds. |
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02-19-21 | Nuggets v. Cavs +8.5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Denver Nuggets vs Cleveland Cavaliers Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, Ohio 7:00 PM EST, February 19, 2021 10-UNIT Best Bet on Cleveland +8.5 points Let’s start with an outstanding betting system that supports the predictions from my machine learning applications. Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a losing record, that are coming off three consecutive road losses, and now facing a non-conference foe has earned an outstanding 36-12-2 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last seven seasons. These dogs have also earned a highly profitable 29-21 SU record good for 58% winning money line wagers. So, I suggest betting this game by placing 80% of your 5% bet amont using the line and 20% of your 5% bet amount using the money line. Drummond has left the Cleveland team and ends a highly toxic situation in the locker room. That is good news and so is the fact that Five-time All Star Kevin Love returned to practice Thursday, but is not likely to play tonight. Despite a 10-19 record overall, they are 7-7 in home games, and have the seventh-best fast break averaging 13.4 PPG. Two players have stepped up for Cleveland over the last 10 games. Cedi Osman is taking more 3’s and is averaging 11.5 PPG amnd making 34% from beyomd the arc. Jarrett Allen is shooting 61.5% and averaging 13.7 PPG in his last 10 games. He will be a formidable presence in the paint tonight knowing that Cleveland ranks best in the NBA averaging 54.5 PPG in the paint. The Cleveland defense ranks 3rd averaging 15.7 forced opponent turnovers-per-game and this too will be a huge factor in getting the upset win. From the machine learning applications, we learn that Cleveland is 11-9 SU and 14-6 ATS for 70% winning bets as a home dog, scoring at least 50 points in the paint, and having scored more points-in-the-paint than their vistor in home games over the last five seasons. In addition, Cleveland is 22-5 SUATS in home games in which they scored 50 or more points-in-the-paint and got a minimum of 50 rebounds in games played over the last five seasons. Thank you for your purchase! Good Luck to us and May all the Wins be yours! |
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02-18-21 | Heat +1 v. Kings | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
Miami vs Sacramento 10:00 PM EST, February 18, 2021 Betting on any team that is on a 3 or more-game ROAD losing streak and playing on back-to-back nights has earned an outstanding 34-9-1 ATS for 79.1% winning bets over the last five seasons. And when the team involved is playing another road game, the record soars to 22-5 ATS for 82% winning bets. For this research and the predictive analytics, Goran Dragic is listed as out. He has an ankle injurty and very unlikely he will play despite being listed as questionable. From the predictive applications, we learn that the Heat are an outstanding 14-5 SU and 17-2 ATS in road games installed as a dog, scoring 111 or more points and having the better, more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the last three seasons. |
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02-18-21 | Rutgers +9 v. Michigan | Top | 64-71 | Win | 102 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
No 3 Michigan vs Rutgers Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI 9:00 PM EST, February 18, 2021 4% Best Bet on Rutgers +9 points Michigan may be the No 3 ranked rteam in the country, but they have been incredibly inconsistent for an elite team. The erractic performances have been masked by outstanding defensive efforts and with that said Rutgers will need to shoot well from the perimeter. Michigan does play aggressively on the defensive end and forces the opponent into a perimeter shot. They rank 325th averaging just 10.8 turnovers-per-game, which will give Rutgers the opportunity to have many open shots. Rutgers is 9-1 ATS facing solid rebounding teams that are outrebounding their opponents by at least four boards-per-game, and after the 15th game of the season. They are also 21-10 ATS when playing against an opponent that has a strong defense allowing 43% or lower shooting in games played over the last two seasons. |
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John Ryan Basketball Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-29-21 | 76ers v. Wizards UNDER 228 | Top | 132-103 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
05-29-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Blazers | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
05-26-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -8 | Top | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
05-25-21 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 209.5 | Top | 109-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
05-23-21 | Hawks v. Knicks UNDER 213.5 | Top | 107-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
05-23-21 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 213.5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
05-23-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 118-125 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
05-22-21 | Celtics v. Nets -8 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
05-22-21 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | 107-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
05-18-21 | Wizards +2.5 v. Celtics | 100-118 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
05-16-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -3 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
05-15-21 | Bulls v. Nets OVER 233.5 | Top | 91-105 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
05-02-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 243.5 | Top | 114-117 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
04-24-21 | Wolves v. Jazz -11.5 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
04-24-21 | Raptors +1 v. Knicks | Top | 103-120 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
04-19-21 | Jazz v. Lakers UNDER 215 | Top | 111-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
04-18-21 | Pelicans +1 v. Knicks | Top | 112-122 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga UNDER 159.5 | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
04-01-21 | 76ers -9.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
03-30-21 | 76ers +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
03-30-21 | USC +8.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
03-29-21 | Cavs +16 v. Jazz | Top | 75-114 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
03-28-21 | Hawks +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 102-126 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
03-28-21 | Florida State +2.5 v. Michigan | Top | 58-76 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
03-28-21 | Creighton v. Gonzaga OVER 158.5 | Top | 65-83 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
03-27-21 | Syracuse +6.5 v. Houston | Top | 46-62 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
03-26-21 | Blazers -9 v. Magic | Top | 112-105 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
03-24-21 | Mavs -8 v. Wolves | Top | 128-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
03-23-21 | 76ers -4 v. Warriors | Top | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
03-22-21 | Oklahoma v. Gonzaga -14 | Top | 71-87 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Oregon State v. Oklahoma State -6 | Top | 80-70 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Oral Roberts v. Florida -9 | Top | 81-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Wisconsin +6.5 v. Baylor | Top | 63-76 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois -7 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Abilene Christian v. Texas -8.5 | Top | 53-52 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Grand Canyon v. Iowa -14 | Top | 74-86 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Iona v. Alabama OVER 146.5 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Eastern Washington +10.5 v. Kansas | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 2 h 12 m | Show |
03-19-21 | North Texas v. Purdue -7 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
03-19-21 | Oregon State v. Tennessee -8.5 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
03-19-21 | Utah State +4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 53-65 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
03-18-21 | UCLA +2 v. Michigan State | Top | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 33 h 23 m | Show |
03-17-21 | Hornets v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 104-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
03-17-21 | Bucks v. 76ers +5.5 | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
03-17-21 | Nets v. Pacers UNDER 234.5 | Top | 124-115 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
03-16-21 | Hawks v. Rockets +9.5 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
03-15-21 | Lakers v. Warriors +2.5 | Top | 128-97 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
03-15-21 | Bucks -8.5 v. Wizards | Top | 133-122 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
03-13-21 | Oregon State v. Colorado -9 | Top | 70-68 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
03-13-21 | Pacers v. Suns -7 | Top | 122-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
03-13-21 | Iona v. Fairfield +8.5 | Top | 60-51 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
03-13-21 | Ohio State +5.5 v. Michigan | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 1 h 59 m | Show |
03-13-21 | UMass Lowell v. Hartford -151 | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Connecticut v. Creighton -1 | Top | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Nuggets -3 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-102 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
03-11-21 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 81-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
03-11-21 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky -3 | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -112 | 1 h 42 m | Show |
03-10-21 | Duke v. Louisville +3 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 58 m | Show |
03-09-21 | Long Beach State +2.5 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 85-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
03-08-21 | St. Mary's +18.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 55-78 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
03-08-21 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Cleveland State -3.5 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
03-07-21 | Texas -7 v. TCU | Top | 76-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
03-07-21 | Michigan -8 v. Michigan State | Top | 64-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
03-07-21 | Elon v. James Madison -4 | Top | 72-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
03-06-21 | Duke v. North Carolina UNDER 149.5 | Top | 73-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
03-06-21 | Florida State -7 v. Notre Dame | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
03-06-21 | Georgetown +9.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 82-98 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
03-06-21 | Loyola Maryland +6.5 v. Navy | Top | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
03-05-21 | Middle Tennessee +10 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 54-63 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
03-05-21 | Portland +13.5 v. Santa Clara | Top | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
03-04-21 | St. Joe's +4 v. Massachusetts | Top | 66-100 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
03-03-21 | Jazz v. 76ers +3.5 | Top | 123-131 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
03-03-21 | NC State v. Notre Dame -2.5 | Top | 80-69 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
03-03-21 | Oregon State v. Utah -5.5 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 30 m | Show |
03-02-21 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Cleveland State -7.5 | Top | 104-108 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
03-02-21 | Arkansas v. South Carolina UNDER 157.5 | 101-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
03-02-21 | Baylor v. West Virginia +4.5 | Top | 94-89 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
02-28-21 | Michigan State v. Maryland -2.5 | Top | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
02-27-21 | Wolves +4 v. Wizards | Top | 112-128 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
02-27-21 | Florida State v. North Carolina UNDER 152.5 | Top | 70-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
02-26-21 | Kings -2 v. Pistons | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
02-26-21 | Purdue v. Penn State -1 | Top | 73-52 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
02-26-21 | Drake v. Bradley +9 | Top | 80-71 | Push | 0 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
02-24-21 | NC State v. Virginia -11 | Top | 68-61 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
02-23-21 | Wizards +12 v. Clippers | Top | 116-135 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
02-23-21 | Georgia Tech +3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 69-53 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
02-23-21 | Akron v. Ohio +1.5 | Top | 73-90 | Win | 100 | 2 h 17 m | Show |
02-22-21 | Texas State -3 v. Arkansas State | Top | 57-52 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
02-22-21 | Syracuse v. Duke -5.5 | Top | 71-85 | Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
02-22-21 | Pepperdine +5.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
02-21-21 | 76ers -3 v. Raptors | Top | 103-110 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
02-21-21 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +6 | Top | 68-51 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
02-21-21 | Penn State +11.5 v. Iowa | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
02-21-21 | Michigan v. Ohio State +1.5 | Top | 92-87 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
02-20-21 | Heat +4 v. Lakers | Top | 96-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
02-20-21 | Illinois v. Minnesota UNDER 146 | Top | 94-63 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
02-20-21 | Connecticut v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
02-19-21 | Nuggets v. Cavs +8.5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
02-18-21 | Heat +1 v. Kings | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
02-18-21 | Rutgers +9 v. Michigan | Top | 64-71 | Win | 102 | 3 h 30 m | Show |