Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest +4 v. Virginia | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. I won with the Cavaliers in their blowout win over Illinois. However, UNC brought them back down to earth last week and I expect them to have their hands full again on Friday night. Wake Forest beat Virginia 40-23 last season. This year's team is even better, as the Deacons returned 20 starters from last year's team. While the Cavs were getting beaten up by the Tar Heels last week, the Deacons are off a confidence-building 35-14 beatdown of Florida State. Indeed, this team is better than many may yet realize. Note that WF is 5-1 ATS its last six, when coming off a SU victory. Including last year's victory, the Deacons are a perfect 6-0 ATS the past six meetings in the series. (They've won the last four meetings outright and the two before that were losses of one point and three points.) The Cavs will eventually snap that streak. Just not on Friday night. Grab the points. |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 59.5 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -112 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on Marshall/Appalachian State UNDER the total. These teams combined for only 24 points when they faced each other last season, a 17-7 win for Marshall. The Thundering Herd check into this year's rematch off a high-scoring game against East Carolina. However, that's not typical for them. In their first two games, the Herd allowed just seven and 10 points. App. State is also a stingy team. Despite playing at Miami (and also having faced East Carolina) the Mountaineers have allowed just 19, 25 and 10 points. Off a 44-10 blowout victory, note that the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the past five times that the Mountaineers were off a win of 20 or more points. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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09-18-21 | Charlotte v. Georgia State -180 | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing GEORGIA STATE on the moneyline. The Panthers had a very tough opening schedule. Their first two games came against Army and at North Carolina. They didn't play well in losing against Army but stumbling against UNC was expected. After this game, the Panthers play at Auburn. Next, is Appalachian State. In other words, they absolutely need to win this game. Or, they'll quickly find themselves 0-4 and looking at possibly going 0-5. Not what they had in mind, considering that they were 6-4 last season and considering that they returned 19 starters. Charlotte absolutely represents a big step down in class and is a team that the Panthers can handle. Charlotte is just 8-26 SU its past 34 on the road, 13-43 SU its past 56 as an underdog. Panthers win. |
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09-18-21 | Arkansas State v. Washington -17 | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Red Wolves are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, the Huskies are going to be in a very angry mood. Arkansas State left it all on the field last game but ultimately came up short, a tough 55-50 loss against Memphis. The Red Wolves had a late rally and finished the game with an edge in stats. Still, to lose that type of game stings. Now, they travel West to take on a superior opponent that will show them no mercy. Keep in mind that the Red Wolves are 1-7 ATS the past eight times that they had allowed 40 or more points in their previous game. The Red Wolves' strength is their passing attack. However, the Huskies haven't given up a TD through the air yet and are only giving up 74.5 ypg (#1 in the country) through the air. Yes, the Washington offense has struggled thus far. The Red Wolves defense is weak against both the run and the pass though and provides a perfect opportunity to get healthy. Washington's superior offensive and defensive line play proves significant, the Huskies getting back on track in blowout fashion. |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -2.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WVU. I won with the Hokies when they upset UNC. So, I'm fully aware that they're a capable team. That was at home though, where the Hokies enjoy a great homefield advantage. Now, they're on the road, facing an upset and experienced WVU team. Yet, the Hokies are getting far fewer points than they were at home against the Tar Heels. Note that they're just 2-4 SU/ATS the past six times that they played a game where the line ranged from +3 to -3. They're also 1-6 ATS their last seven on the road and 0-4 ATS after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their previous game. Additionally, note that depth at receiever is a bit of an issue for the Hokies with tight-end Mitchell out with injury. Off its loss at Maryland, the Mountaineers took out some of their anger on LIU, delivering a 66-0 thrashing. That'll give them plenty of confidence going into this one but they're still mad from the Maryland loss. They're 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 as home favorites, 6-0-1 ATS ther last seven at home. Expect them to improve on those stats Sat. afternoon. |
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09-18-21 | Michigan State v. Miami-FL -6 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. At first glance, it may appear that the Spartans are off to a much better start than the Hurricanes. They're 2-0 SU/ATS while Miami is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Those records aren't surprising though. The Spartans beat Northwestern but they were catching the Wildcats playing their first game, after losing most of their offense from last year. So, a nice win, but not entirely shocking. Their next game was against Youngstown State. So, winning that game was obviously expected. Miami has played much tougher competition. The Canes first game was vs Alabama. So, a loss wasn't that surprising. Next was Appalachian State. Though they didn't cover, the Canes did a good job of bouncing back from the opening day loss, to earn the SU win. Now, that first victory under their belts and fully recovered from the Bama beating, they'll be ready to put it all together. Even with the win at Northwestern, the Spartans are still just 3-8 ATS their last 11 as underdogs, 0-4 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. While many seem to be jumping on the bandwagon, expect the Spartans to receive a reality check on Saturday afternoon. |
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09-16-21 | Ohio +21 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 14-49 | Loss | -117 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO. Neither team is pleased with how its played so far. The Cajuns lost to Texas. No shame in that, except that they were blown out 38-18. They followed it up by only beating Nicholls by a field goal. Not good, when considering they were laying nearly four TDs. Ohio has been even worse. The Bobcats followed up a loss against Syracuse by losing outright to Duquesne. I'm of the mind that both teams are a lot better than they've shown and that both will be playing better on Thursday. That said, this is a lot of points for the Cajuns to be laying, considering they only just beat Nicholls by a field goal. Ohio has a veteran coach and a veteran team. The Bobcats are coming in desperate. Look for them to provide a much tougher test than many will be expecting. |
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09-11-21 | Stanford v. USC OVER 53 | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on stanford/usc OVER the total. I played against the Cardinal last week. So, I was happy to see them score only seven points. That was a very early starting time though and I believe that worked against Stanford. Tonight, the Cardinal are back in the Pacific Time Zone and I'm expecting a much better offensive effort. Note that the OVER is 5-0 the past five times that the Cardinal had scored less than 20 points in their previous game. After scoring just 17 in its first game of 2019, the Cardinal played USC in their next game. That game had an O/U line of 44 and finished with 65. Next, after scoring six against Oregon, the Cardinal combined with OSU for 59. After a 16-point effort against UCLA, the Cardinal combined with Arizona for 72. A 13-point showing at Colorado was proceeded by a 71-point game at WSU. Finally, after a 20-pt offensive line vs Cal, the Cardinal combined with ND for 69. You get the idea. I'll also mention that the OVER is 8-1 the past nine times that USC had allowed less than 20, in its previous game. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | 10-31 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Huskies got caught looking ahead to this game and were upset as big favorites last week. As a result, not many are giving them a chance in this one. They're a much better team than they showed though and I'm confident we'll see that this evening. Last week's results have worked in our favor, in helping to create additional line value. Michigan was able to have its way on offense against Western Michigan but the Wolverines will have a much tougher time against a tough Washington defense. The Huskies are still 4-1 ATS their last five non-conf. games while the Wolverines are 2-3 ATS their last five. Going back further finds Michigan at 4-11 ATS its last 15 against the Pac-12. While I'm aware, they're banged up at the receiver position, I believe that the Huskies are going to surprise a lot of people and I'm grabbing the points. |
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09-11-21 | Georgia Southern +7 v. Florida Atlantic | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN. While I respect the Owls, I also believe that Georgia Southern is better than many realize. The Eagles ran for 365 yards in winning their opening game. They controlled the clock for more than 35 minutes. On the other hand, the Owls allowed more than 400 yards on the ground, giving up nearly nine yards per carry. Obviously, FAU played a MUCH tougher opponent. So, those results need to be taken with a grain of salt. That said, the Eagles will still have success on the ground. While they didn't cover in their Week 1 win, the Eagles are 8-0 ATS their last eight, after an ATS loss. Having beaten FAU by a score of 20-3 last year, they're coming in confident. The Owls are 2-12 ATS their last 14, as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. Grab the points. |
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09-11-21 | Ball State +22.5 v. Penn State | 13-44 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. The Nittany Lions are off a big upset win. They only scored 16 points though and they're laying more than that here. I believe that's asking a lot. Off its win at Wisconsin and with Auburn on deck, this is a very tough scheduling spot. Note that PSU is just 4-8 ATS its last 12 home games. The Cardinals are an experienced team. They put up 31 points in winning their opener by double-digits. They're 9-2 ATS their last 11 when getting points, 14-6 ATS over the years against Big Ten teams. Grab the points and look for this one to be much closer than many will be expecting. |
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09-11-21 | Illinois v. Virginia -9.5 | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 93 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Illini scored an upset of Nebraska, only to then lose to UTSA. Keep in mind this is a team with a new coach, essentially in rebuild mode. Now, they're on the road to take on a stronger Virginia team. Off a 43-0 romp, the Cavs are full of confidence. They're 9-4-1 ATS their last 14, when laying points and they're 10-3-1 ATS (13-1 SU) their last 14 at home. That home field advantage should definitely be working in their favor for this 11am ET start. The Cavs defense was dominant last week. They didn't even allow a first down until their opponent was on its fifth possession. In the end, Virginia would surrender only 183 total yards. Eventually, the offense got going to the tune of 545 yards. I don't feel that the Illini are ready for what they'll find here; I'm expecting another double-digit win for the Cavs. |
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09-10-21 | UTEP v. Boise State UNDER 57 | 13-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Boise/Utep UNDER the total. While they came up short against UCF, the Broncos are tough on both sides of the ball. Stepping down in class, they're big favorites against UTEP for a reason. While the Broncos will score, I believe that they're going to emphasize shutting down the Miners and dominating defensively, more than running up the score offensively. UTEP has played well so far against inferior opponents. The Miners' running game has impressed and they've done a good job of getting pressure on opposing QBs. They'll be doing everything they can to run the ball in an effort to chew up the clock and keep the Boise offense on the sideline. With the Miners coming in undefeated, note that the UNDER is 7-1 the past eight times that Boise hosted a team with a winning road record. I say the UTEP offense struggles to score and this one proves lower-scoring overall than most will be expecting. |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State UNDER 56 | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ND/FSU UNDER the total. We've already seen some serious defensive battles. This one figures to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. The Irish allowed just 19.7 ppg last season. They'll be stingy again. On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame returns only three offensive starters. Six players they are replacing were draft picks. Needless to say, there will be some adjustments that need to be made early in the season. The Seminoles have plenty of returning starters and should be improved on both sides of the ball. It's still going to be tough to consistently move the ball against the ND defense though. Last year's meeting did finish above the total. However, that wasn't in the first week of the season and the Irish had an offense which had returned its QB and every starter on its offensive line. This year, we're working with an even higher O/U number than last year, too. Both teams played a low-scoring game to start their season last year. ND beat Duke 27-13 while FSU lost 16-13 to Georgia Tech. More of the same this evening. |
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09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson -140 | 10-3 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm playing CLEMSON on the moneyline. This line has fallen considerably. Now, we're able to get the Tigers on the moneyline for a very reasonable price. For me, in a game which could well be close, not having to worry about laying any points is luxury worth laying that short price for. Obviously, Lawrence has moved on. You don't just replace a talent like that. That said, Uiagalelei is a legitimate Heisman candidate. He's a big QB who dominated when given a chance last season. He'll be throwing to a talented group of receivers including Justyn Ross. (Mel Kiper Jr ranks Ross, who missed last season, as a top 25 prospect for the 2022 NFL draft.) On the other side of the ball, an experienced Clemson defense is among the very best in the country. Of course, Georgia is also one of the very best teams in the country. Like the Tigers, the Bulldogs will be stingy defensively. However, Clemson returned considerably more starters on that side of the ball and that figures to play an important role in this one. While both teams were given an equal number of tickets to ensure the crowd for this "neutral site" is equal, the fact that the game is being played in Charlotte - a "Clemson town," should favor the Tigers. In what should be an exciting battle, look for Clemson to find a way. |
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09-04-21 | West Virginia v. Maryland UNDER 57.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on WVU/Maryland UNDER the total. This O/U number has climbed from its opener. I believe that's helping to provide us with plenty of line value. The Mountaineers should put up quite a few points this year, as they've got plenty of weapons on offense. Their defense is also excellent though and will be tough to score against. Last year, WVU held opposing teams to 291.4 ypg, #4 in the country. With nine returning defensive starters, the Terps will also be stingy this season. The UNDER is 5-1 the last six times that the Terps were underdogs, 6-1 their last seven games overall. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in WVU's last six, as the road team. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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09-04-21 | Stanford v. Kansas State -2.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 110 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on K-STATE. While this game will be played at a neutral site, the Wildcats will have the majority of the fans in their favor. The early starting time stongly favors K-State and Stanford coach David Shaw is the first to admit it. He had this to say, when learning about the schedule: "This is either complete disregard, or lack of understanding how difficult it is to be a West Coast team, that travels east and gets forced to play an early kickoff game ..." More recently he added: "I still think it's ridiculous." While the venue and kickoff time should favor K-State, the Wildcats also have the more experienced offense. They've got 10 returning starters on that side of the ball compared to six for Stanford. The Wildcats should be better on both sides of the ball this season. The Cardinal are 3-7 ATS their last 10 as underdogs. During that span, the Cats are 5-2 ATS as favorites. I expect them to improve on those stats Saturday morning. |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State v. Northwestern UNDER 46 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MSU/Northwestern UNDER the total. We saw a high-scoring game in the Big Ten last night but I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring affair. Recent meetings between these teams have finished above the total. They've also had lower O/U lines than this one though. While last year's game finished with 49 points, the Wildcats lost a lot on offense from last year. They'll be working with a QB and lost their top four receivers from last year. With the offensive line a strength, that should translate to a lot of running the ball in this one. Also, the Wildcats will rely on their defense. They allowed a mere 15.9 ppg from last year and will be stingy once again. While the Spartans are experienced on offense, keep in mind that they only averaged 18 ppg last year. The Spartan defense is also fairly experienced with five of their top six tacklers returning. Expect it to translate to a low-scoring opener. |
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09-03-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +6 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on V-TECH. The Tar Heels are tough on both sides of the ball and deserving of their national ranking. This is a very tough opening game though. Blacksburg has never been an easy place to play. Now, the fans are back and the Hokies should be much improved. While the offense will be good again, the Heels lost some serious firepower from last year. Note that they're just 5-5 on the road under Brown. Last year, they lost at (3-6) Florida State and (5-5) Virginia. After missing out on a bowl game for the first time in 27 years, the Hokies are coming into this season with a chip in their shoulder. They're 4-2 ATS their last six getting points overall and 6-3 ATS their last nine, as underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. I say homefield proves significant and that the Heels give the Hokies all that they can handle. |
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09-02-21 | East Carolina v. Appalachian State UNDER 58 | Top | 19-33 | Win | 100 | 79 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on East Carolina / Appalachian State UNDER the total. While both offenses have some threats, these are two experienced defenses. ECU QB Ahlers is an exciting player but I expect him to have some trouble against a stingy Mountaineer defense. Inside linebackers Jackson and Cobb each had more than 90 tackles last season. Each added some sacks while Jackson also had a couple of picks. On offense, the Mountaineers will feature a heavy dose of the run, which will help to chew the clock up. Remember, Peoples just ran for over 300 yards in App. State's bowl win back in December. While the Pirates defense has admittedly struggled in recent seasons, Coach Houston has a defensive background and this is now his third year. That said, ECU should be better defensively this season. Note that the UNDER is 4-1 the past five Pirate September games. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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09-01-21 | UAB v. Jacksonville State +17 | 31-0 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE STATE. The Blazers won the C-USA championship again last season. The Gamecocks have been dominating the Ohio Valley. Naturally, UAB is favored. There's a lot to like about the Gamecocks in this one though and this is a very generous spread. I really like the fact that they've had a spring season under their belts. I like that Jacksonville State has a senior QB with 61 career TD passes to his credit. UAB replaces its career leading rusher and the Gamecocks have held nine straight (reg. season) opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground. These campuses are close to each other, so both will want to play hard. That said, UAB could easily already be thinking about next week's showdown with Georgia. Finally, I like the fact that the coaches are friends. In fact, they were in the same graduating class and they've previously worked together. In a game that may well prove a lot closer than many will be expecting, I'm grabbing the points. |
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08-28-21 | Southern Utah v. San Jose State OVER 56 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 99 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Southern Utah and SJ State OVER the total. The Spartans were a profitable 'under' team last winter. Seven of their last eight games, including each of their last five, finished below the total. This is a new season though and a relatively low number. Importantly, a closer look shows that things weren't as bleak offensively as all those 'unders' makes it sound. Yes, the Spartans struggled to score in their New Year's Eve Bowl game against Ball State. They scored 30 or more in each of their final four regular season games though and 28 or more in each of their last six. This year, the offense brings back nine starters and will be playing behind a veteran offensive line. A game against Southern Utah provides an opportunity to immediately get healthy offensively and get rid of the bad taste from the Ball State loss. While SJ State will put up a big number, the Thunderbirds aren't without offensive talent. They'll contribute. QB Miller started all six games last season and threw for 1700+ yards and 15 TDs. They've got an NFL prospect (Braxton Jones) on the offensive line. Running back Duckett is solid and Oregon transfer JR Watts brings speed at the WR position and an opportunity to beat the Spartans deep. Look for the final score to prove higher than many will be expecting. |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska -7 v. Illinois | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -105 | 745 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEBRASKA. It sounds funny but a case can be made that this is one of Nebraska's most important games of the season. The Huskers absolutely need a positive start. Beating a team which embarrassed them last year is a great place to begin. Beating Brett Bielema, new coach of Illinois, will make it even sweeter. Nebraska coach Frost commented: "The one thing we need is momentum right now. There's so many good things that are happening in our program. These kids deserve a little wind under their wings, and that first game's going to be an opportunity for us against a Big Ten opponent. So that really is a big game." Frost has plenty of talent and now he's had plenty of time with his team. The cupboard isn't bare for Bielema either, thanks to his "super seniors." That said, its going to take some time. He can't be expected to work miracles overnight. The Huskers are 13-8 ATS their last 21, as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I see them settling the score from last year with a double-digit win to start the season. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama -7 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 229 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ALABAMA. I won with the Buckeyes against Clemson. However, this Alabama team is in an entirely different class. The Buckeyes were on a mission to avenge last year's loss against Clemson. Obviously, they want to take the next step and beat Alabama, too. However, even if they don't, they've already proven that they belong and have "accomplished their mission." Coach Day commented: " ... This was big for us. This was a statement for us as a program to win a CFP game, especially after what happened last year. And to play the way we did, it means a lot for our program." For Alabama, on the other hand, nothing has been accomplished. This is a team which is on a mission to win the National title. As impressive as they were in beating up on Clemson, the Buckeyes got beaten up themselves in the process. QB Fields, the hero of the Sugar Bowl win, had this to say after the game: " ... I took like a shot or two in the medical tent and just ran back out there. But I mean it's pretty much my whole right torso that's messed up, a little bit of my hip ... " As much as I respect the Buckeyes, the Tide are simply better on both sides of the ball. Alabama will put up a big number, as it has done every game this season; ultimately, Ohio State won't be able to keep up. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 75.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 230 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ohio State / Alabama OVER the total. I successfully played on the 'under' in Alabama's win over Notre Dame. That one stayed comfortably below the total which has helped to keep this O/U line a little lower than it easily could have been. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. When I played on the 'under' in Alabama's last game, it was largely because I respected the Notre Dame defense. While I wasn't sure that they would score that many points, I felt strongly that the Irish would do everything that they could to slow the game down and to try and keep the Alabama offense off the field. The Buckeyes, however, are an entirely different team. After putting up 49 points against Clemson, they believe that they've got the type of offense that can trade points with the SEC champs. Rather than try and slow the game down, they're going to try and outscore the Tide. If you watched their game against Clemson, you saw that they were very aggressive; there was no taking their foot off the gas. They kept throwing and attacking and looking to put up more points. Of course, they're going to need to score A LOT if they want to compete with an Alabama offense which arguably ranks among the best of all-time. Prior to the Irish game, Alabama had scored more than 40 in 10 straight games, including more than 50 in each of its previous three. Expect an extremely high-scoring affair. |
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01-02-21 | North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. The SEC didn't fare too well at the betting window, in yesterday's egames. Auburn lost to Northwestern while Georgia nearly lost outright against Cincy. Then, Alabama failed to cover against the Irish. That may have some scratching their heads about why the SEC team is getting so much respect here. However, I'm projecting a double-digit win and believe that the Aggies could easily be favored by more. While the Tar Heels were certainly impressive in beating up on Miami, they also lost against Virginia, Florida State and Notre Dame. Texas A&M has just one loss all season and that came at Alabama. Since then, the Aggies have won seven straight, starting with Florida, all against SEC opposition. Their last six wins have ALL come by double-digits. Despite facing an SEC schedule, the Aggies allowed just 21.1 ppg compared to the Tar Heels' 28.4 ppg against an ACC schedule, one which didn't include a game against Clemson. Of course, it also needs to be mentioned that UNC has a number of players who chose to opt out of this game. Mack Brown said this of the missing players: "That's 4,000 yards worth of offense and our leading tackler on defense and two captains. This is new for me because I've never had a guy not play in a ball game ... " Texas A&M rolls. |
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01-02-21 | Ole Miss +10 v. Indiana | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OLE MISS. The SEC didn't fare too well at the betting window, in yesterday's egames. Auburn lost to Northwestern while Georgia nearly lost outright against Cincy. Then, Alabama failed to cover against the Irish. While I backed the Big Ten team (Northwestern) in yesterday's Big Ten vs. SEC showdown, I feel that its the SEC team which is providing us with excellent value in this one. The Hoosiers are 0-5 their last five bowl games. During that span, the Rebels are 11-2 in bowl games. The Rebels do have some issues as they're dealing with some injuries and covid-opt outs. Thats been reflected in the line though as Indiana is being asked to win by double-digits. Thats asking too much, in my opinion. Note that three of their seven games were decided by single-digits. The Hoosiers may be saying all the right things but they're still disappointed about not getting to play yesterday. The Rebels can score with the best of them. They scored 54, 59, 31 and 48 points, in their final four games. While Indiana averages 30 ppg, Ole Miss averages more than 40. Look for the Rebels to come "ready to play" as they give the Hoosiers a much tougher challenge than many will be expecting. |
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01-02-21 | Kentucky -127 v. NC State | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm playing KENTUCKY on the moneyline. The SEC didn't fare too well in yesterday's early games. Auburn lost to Northwestern while Georgia failed to cover against Cincy. That may have some scratching their heads about why the SEC team is getting so much respect here. The Wolfpack can't believe that they're underdogs in this game either. After all, they've won four straight and are 8-3. Kentucky, meanwhile, is just 4-6. Vegas isn't stupid though; the Wildcats are favored for a reason. Keep in mind that Kentucky had to face the likes of Alabama, Georgia, Auburn and Florida. Three of those games came on the road, too. NC State wouldn't have beaten those teams either. When stepping down in class to face Tennessee, Miss State and Vanderbilt, the Wildcats went 4-0. They beat the first two that I mentioned by a combined score of 51-9. NC State's best wins were against Virginia and Liberty. The Wolfpack's toughest games were against VTech, Miami and UNC and they lost all three of those. NC State is 3-10 SU its last 13 as an underdog. During that span, Kentucky is 15-4 SU as a favorite. Kentucky wins. |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State +8.5 v. Clemson | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 271 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE. One can argue that the Buckeyes didn't deserve to be here, due to eligibilty reasons. However, there's no arguing the fact that they have the talent to be here. I like the way that the Buckeyes enter this one. The world against them - at least they can make a case for feeling that way - and off a non-cover, comeback win in the Big Ten championship game. All that sets them up well for this one; I like how they rallied to come back from a 10-6 halftime deficit to win 22-10. The comeback provides momentum and confidence, as does the ability to win a close game. The non-cover creates some additional line value, as this line could easily be less than a touchdown. QB Fields has had time for his thumb to recover and now he'll have one of his favorite receivers back, as Chris Olave missed the Northwestern game. Last year's game could have easily gone either way. The Buckeyes were up 16-0 but lost 29-23. Lawrence threw the game-winning TD with less than two minutes to go. Again, the Buckeyes were right there last year. They've been waiting and hoping for this rematch and I expect them to again give the Tigers all they can handle. Fields had this to say: "It's pretty self-explanatory that game hurt us a lot last year. So that has kind of been our whole motivation this offseason. Just getting the chance to play those guys again is a great opportunity ... " Ohio State's offensive lineman Wyatt Davis added: "It's everybody. I mean, we had a whole winter offseason program dedicated to this game. Clearly what we've seen and I'm sure all of you have seen this, we're going into this game not respected at all so that has a lot of motivations as well." Don't be surprised when this one comes down to the wire once again, the revenge-minded Buckeyes with an excellent shot at the outright win. |
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01-01-21 | Notre Dame v. Alabama UNDER 66.5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ND/Alabama UNDER the total. Obviously, the Alabama offense is really, really good. However, this is also a very high O/U line and this Notre Dame defense is a lot better than many realize. No, the Irish won't be able to stop the Tide. But they should be able to slow them down better than most other teams. Remember, that ND ranked in the top 25 in both points allowed and yards allowed, despite having to face Clemson twice. Speaking of Clemson, Notre Dame's most recent game with the Tigers had an O/U line of 57 and finished with just 44 points. While the offense gets all the headlines, as per usual, the Alabama defense is also loaded with stars. While their last game was high-scoring, the Tide have been alternating between 'unders' and 'overs' their past six games, dating back to Halloween. Expect that 'pattern' to continue as this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. |
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01-01-21 | Auburn v. Northwestern -170 | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing NORTHWESTERN on the money-line. While I successfully backed an SEC team (Miss. State) in yesterday's early game, I'm going against the SEC team in this one. For starters, I believe that Northwestern is better than Tulsa. I've been impressed with the Wildcats all season. Also, importantly, Auburn is currently a mess. Within the last month, the Tigers fired their coach and also saw several players opt out of this game. The Tigers also found out Thursday, just before leaving Orlando, that at least one player had tested positive. That's a lot to deal with, compared to the Wildcats, who have been relatively "stable" by comparison. The Tigers are just 3-7 SU the past 10 times that they were listed as underdogs. During that time, the Wildcats were 10-3 SU as favorites. Expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. |
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12-31-20 | Ball State +10 v. San Jose State | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. While I respect San Jose State, I don't believe it should be laying double-digits against an undervalued Ball State team. I don't think the Cardinals are being given nearly enough respect or enough credit for beating Buffalo. Keep in mind that the Bulls had been crushing every team they faced all season. That was a very good Buffalo team and Ball State won by double-digits. That victory was arguably more impressive than anything that the Spartans did. That's six straight wins. The Cards only loss was in their first game and that was by just seven points. San Jose State does deserve credit but also benefitted from a down year in the Mountain West. Keep in mind that the Spartans are still just 2-10 SU their last 12 against teams with a winning record. In what should be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
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12-31-20 | Mississippi State +1.5 v. Tulsa | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MISS. STATE. If one just looks at the records, Tulsa should be a bigger favorite. However, as Tulsa's TieNeal Martin had to say: "Records can be a little bit deceiving. When I look at Miss. State, I see a crazy talented team that has all the pieces ..." It should be noted that Tulsa will be without linebacker Zaven Collins (Nagurski Trophy winner) as he opted out. The Bulldogs have taken on the likes of Alabama and Georgia, not to mention teams like Texas A&M, Kentucky, LSU and Arkansas, Auburn and Ole Miss. They closed out the season with a momentum-building 51-32 beating of Missouri. Tulsa, on the other hand, comes off a loss to Cincinnati. Note that the Hurricane are 4-8 ATS the past 12 times that they were off a conference loss. While I'll grab the points, I expect the Bulldogs to win this one outirght, improving to 5-1 ATS their last six, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. |
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12-30-20 | Florida v. Oklahoma UNDER 68.5 | Top | 20-55 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Florida/Oklahoma UNDER the total. As you may have heard, the Gators' offense has taken a pretty major hit. They'll still have their star QB but he'll be without his top FOUR receiving options. Those four guys (receives Grimes, Toney, Copeland and tight-end Pitts) combined for 2778 yards and 34 touchdowns this season. Obviously, that's significant. Meanwhile, the Sooners defense is better than the recent editions that have been beaten up by SEC teams. OU has allowed a mere 57 points its last four games. That's actually their best defensive stretch, in terms of points allowed, in the past six years. While the Sooners led the Big 12 with 36 sacks, the Gators led the SEC with 33. Oklahoma defensive end Ronnie Perkins said this of the Sooner defense: 'After suffering those two losses early in the season, the defense definitely turned it up. I definitely feel that switch. We've got great players all over the field. A lot of guys who have kind of been in it, took a lot of reps in this defense over the last two years. So we're a confident group. We play hard, play fast.'' Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-29-20 | Colorado v. Texas -7 | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS. I'm projecting a double-digit win for the Longhorns in this one. Note that every Texas victory came by at least seven points this season, with the exception of a 4-point win over WVU. The Longhorns bring momentum into the game, having won four of their past five. They crushed K-State 69-31 last time out. The Buffaloes can't say the same. They lost 38-21 to Utah last time out, snapping a winning streak. The loss was costly. Not only did it cost the Buffs any chance at the Pac-12 South title, they also suffered numerous injuries including one to linebacker Nate Landman. His loss, and others, will hurt them here. The Longhorns are a perfect 6-0 SU the past six times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. I expect Ehlinger and co. to improve on those stats, picking up the cover along the way. |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State -1 v. Miami-FL | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. Both these teams have mostly beaten the teams that they were supposed to beat. Both have similar records and both have similar numbers in that they've outscored opposing teams by roughly the same amount. (Miami outscored teams by 8 ppg while OSU outscored opposing teams by 7.1 ppg.) I like the way that the Cowboys come into the game a lot more though. After dropping two of three, they responded by thrashing Baylor (42-3) last time out. Conversely, Miami got crushed in its last game. The Canes were hammered 62-26 by UNC. Yes, they're saying all the right things about being motivated to bounce back - I'm sure that they want to - but that game exposed some vulnerabilities. It also cost them a spot in a major bowl which is a difficult pill to swallow and which will make "getting up" for this one that much more difficult. While they may be closer to home, the Canes are still 0-5 SU their last five on a 'neutral' field. Even without Hubbard, OSU can still pound the ball and control the clock. Expect the Cowboys to win their fourth bowl game in the past five years. |
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Ben Burns NCAA-F Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest +4 v. Virginia | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 4 m | Show |
09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 59.5 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -112 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
09-18-21 | Charlotte v. Georgia State -180 | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show | |
09-18-21 | Arkansas State v. Washington -17 | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show | |
09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -2.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 36 m | Show | |
09-18-21 | Michigan State v. Miami-FL -6 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
09-16-21 | Ohio +21 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 14-49 | Loss | -117 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
09-11-21 | Stanford v. USC OVER 53 | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | 10-31 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
09-11-21 | Georgia Southern +7 v. Florida Atlantic | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
09-11-21 | Ball State +22.5 v. Penn State | 13-44 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
09-11-21 | Illinois v. Virginia -9.5 | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 93 h 42 m | Show | |
09-10-21 | UTEP v. Boise State UNDER 57 | 13-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State UNDER 56 | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 12 m | Show | |
09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson -140 | 10-3 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
09-04-21 | West Virginia v. Maryland UNDER 57.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
09-04-21 | Stanford v. Kansas State -2.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 110 h 28 m | Show | |
09-03-21 | Michigan State v. Northwestern UNDER 46 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
09-03-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +6 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
09-02-21 | East Carolina v. Appalachian State UNDER 58 | Top | 19-33 | Win | 100 | 79 h 35 m | Show |
09-01-21 | UAB v. Jacksonville State +17 | 31-0 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
08-28-21 | Southern Utah v. San Jose State OVER 56 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 99 h 9 m | Show |
08-28-21 | Nebraska -7 v. Illinois | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -105 | 745 h 20 m | Show |
01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama -7 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 229 h 26 m | Show | |
01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 75.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 230 h 37 m | Show |
01-02-21 | North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
01-02-21 | Ole Miss +10 v. Indiana | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
01-02-21 | Kentucky -127 v. NC State | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
01-01-21 | Ohio State +8.5 v. Clemson | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 271 h 15 m | Show |
01-01-21 | Notre Dame v. Alabama UNDER 66.5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
01-01-21 | Auburn v. Northwestern -170 | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
12-31-20 | Ball State +10 v. San Jose State | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
12-31-20 | Mississippi State +1.5 v. Tulsa | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
12-30-20 | Florida v. Oklahoma UNDER 68.5 | Top | 20-55 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
12-29-20 | Colorado v. Texas -7 | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
12-29-20 | Oklahoma State -1 v. Miami-FL | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |