Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers UNDER 46.5 | 30-33 | Loss | -102 | 34 h 42 m | Show | |
4* 49ers/Packers MNF Total NO-BRAINER on 49ers/Packers UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER on Monday Night Football, as I feel we are seeing an inflated number here with SF having gone OVER the total in 4 straight and the Packers having gone OVER the total in 4 of their first 5 games. These two teams are a lot better defensively than people realize. San Francisco is 12th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 348 ypg. The Packers are 4th, allowing a mere 314 ypg. Both teams rank in the top half of the league against both the run and the pass. Both could also be missing several key players on the offensive side of the ball. Already down starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers will also be without their best back in Matt Breida. They also have 3 starters on the offensive line questionable, as well as wide out Marquise Goodwin. Green Bay may be without two of their top wide outs in Randall Cobb and Jaire Alexander and Aaron Rodgers is playing at less than 100% after tweaking that left knee injury he suffered in Week 1 last week against the Lions. The game will also be played in less than ideal scoring conditions, as temps are expected to be just barely above freezing with a 10 mph wind. UNDER is also 26-3 (90%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team (49ers) giving up 27+ ppg, who has allowed 25 or more in each of their last 4 games. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 59 | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 140 h 13 m | Show |
5* Sunday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pats/Chiefs OVER You don't see a ton of NFL totals approaching 60 points, but I got no problem here backing the OVER when the Chiefs visit the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. I honestly don't know that the books can set the total high enough for the offense fireworks that will be on display. While there's a few out there that aren't completely sold on Mahomes, this kid is the real deal. He had his worst game of the season last week against the Jaguars, failing to throw a single TD pass and throwing his first two interceptions of the season. He still threw for 313 yards and rushed for a score in the Chiefs convincing win over Jacksonville. Not a bad day against arguably the best defense in the NFL. Andy Reid's offenses have given the Patriots troubles in recent meetings with Alex Smith under center. I just don't think New England has the talent to contain Mahomes and all those weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Belichick loves to take away a teams strength or top playmaker, but that's hard to do with this Chiefs team, as they got top not skill players all over the field and Mahomes is not shy about spreading the ball around. He's thrown 14 touchdown passes to 9 different receivers. As for the Patriots offense, they are going to have try and keep pace and they should be able to do just that against a bad KC defense. While the Chiefs held the Jaguars to 14 points, they gave up over 500 yards of offense. They simply took advantage of a poor game by Jacksonville stater Blake Bortles. Brady isn't going to make those same mistakes. I think both teams will score at least 30 points, which would be more than enough to cash a winning ticket here. OVER is also 73-37 (66%) since 1983 when you have an undefeated road team off a home win by 10 or more. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 45.5 | 23-21 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 41 m | Show | |
3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Eagles OVER I think we are getting great value here on the total, as I feel the books have set the bar too low for the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball, especially at the quarterback position. I think we are seeing a low number because of how much respect these two defenses get. Minnesota's stop unit led the NFL last year in both scoring defense and total defense, while the Eagles defense carried them all the way to the Super Bowl title. A lot can change in one season and this Vikings defense is producing no where close to last year, which is why they are sitting at 1-2-1. They gave up 29 to Green Bay in Week 2, 27 at home to the Bills in Week 3 and 38 last week to the Rams. Wentz and the Eagles haven't taken off like people expected, but he's only going to keep getting better and I think this could be the week he goes off. Outside of the egg they laid against the Bills, Minnesota's offense has played well behind new quarterback Kirk Cousins. I think we get enough big plays out of Wentz and Cousins to push this one into the 50's. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Titans v. Bills OVER 39 | 12-13 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NFL Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Bills OVER These are two teams that have struggled offensively early and just don't have a ton of playmakers on that side of the ball. While I'm not expecting these two teams to get into a shootout, I think there's some great value here with the total for this game sitting under 40. I don't think it's asking a lot for these two teams to score 20 points. Tennessee has done that in 3 of their 4 games and the only exception was against an elite Buffalo defense. The Bills offense couldn't have looked much worse last week against Green Bay, but I look for them to get back on track at home. Titans defense has been strong, but I think this is a big flat spot for Tennessee. Their last three games have come against the Texans, Jags and Eagles. They needed everything they had to win all 3 and all 3 wins came by exactly 3-points. Hard for them to get up for a team like the Bills and I think Buffalo takes full advantage. OVER is 13-3 in the Bills last 16 home games, 9-1 in their last 10 home games off a road loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a home dog of 7 points or less. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots UNDER 51.5 | 24-38 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 55 m | Show | |
4* Colts/Patriots TNF Total NO-BRAINER on Colts/Patriots UNDER Last week's Thursday night game between the Rams and Vikings saw a combined 69 points with the two teams nearly going OVER the total in the 1st half. While these Thursday games can be higher-scoring given teams are playing on short rest, I feel the number here and the injuries for both sides will keep this well below the mark. The Colts are dealing with massive injuries on the offensive line, which is going to put Andrew Luck and that offense behind the 8-ball from the start. On top of that they won't have starting running back Marlon Mack, wide out TY Hilton and tight end Jack Doyle. New England will get back Julian Edelman and Gronk is expected to play after suffering an ankle injury last week, but he's likely to be playing at less than 100%. I know the Colts just gave up 37 last week to the Texans, but they have been really good defensively on the road, allowing just 9 points at Washington and 20 at Philadelphia. UNDER is 6-0 in the Colts last 6 road games, 8-1 in their last 9 off a loss and 8-2 in their last 10 vs an AFC opponent. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Patriots last 10 vs the AFC, 8-3 in their last 11 after gaining more than 350 yards in the previous game and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 51 | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 96 h 41 m | Show |
5* NFL Sunday Night TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Steelers UNDER The fact that the OVER is a perfect 3-0 in the Steelers first 3 games and the Ravens are looking strong offensively to start, has this total for Sunday Night Football set way to high. I think both teams will struggle to come anywhere close to putting up the kind of numbers here to push this over the mark. The biggest thing that gets overlooked is just how much harder it is offensively against a division opponent, as these teams play each other twice a year and are very familiar with the schemes the opponent likes to run. Baltimores defense has been great outside of the Thursday night game against the Bengals and I believe that poor showing was a direct result of playing on just 3 days of rest. The Ravens definitely matchup well with Pittsburgh and their high-powered passing attack, as Baltimore ranks 2nd in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 169.3 ypg. The Steelers defense hasn't been the same since losing Ryan Shazier at the end of last season, but they were sharp last week against the Bucs. While they allowed 27 points for the game, Tampa Bay had just 10 points at the half and the Steelers defense forced 4 turnovers. Baltimore's offense also isn't as good as the numbers would suggest, as they have benefited greatly from playing the likes of the Bills, Bengals and Broncos. UNDER is 13-3 in the Steelers last 12 vs a team that's averaging 29 or more points/game and 12-4 in their last 16 after a game where they allowed 250 or more yards passing. We also find a great system in play, as the UNDER is 75-35 (68%) when you have a total of 49.5 or more with a team (Ravens) off a home win and playing a division game. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 52.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 168 h 48 m | Show | |
4* MNF (PIT/TB) Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Steelers OVER The books simply haven't set the bar high enough for this one. Scoring is up this year and we have two offenses that are clicking early against two defenses that haven't been up to par. The Steelers managed just 21 points in their opener against the Browns, but did have an impressive 472 total yards. They were doomed by 6 turnovers and keep in mind that game was played in less than ideal conditions. Week 2 they put up 37 points and 475 total yards in a game with KC that saw a combined score of 79 points. All the talk with the Bucs is centered around Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown for over 400 yards and 4 scores in each of their first two games. They put up 48 points in their Week 1 win on the road against the Saints and 27 last week against the Eagles, who have one of the best defenses in the league. All of the focus on the offense has people overlooking how bad Tampa Bays defense has played. The Bucs are giving up 30.5 ppg and 443.5 ypg. It doesn't figure to be any better against Roethlisber and the Steelers potent offense, especially with all the injuries that have piled up on that side of the ball. As for Pittsburgh's defense, it just hasn't been the same since they lost Ryan Shazier a season ago. I could see them playing better this week with Joe Haden back from injury, but they aren't shutting down this Bucs offense on the road. Both teams figure to score early and often and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if these two combined for 65+ points. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 38.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 96 h 29 m | Show |
5* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Vikings OVER I love the value here with the total in Sunday's NFC Championship Game between the Vikings and Eagles. I know these are two teams are built around their defenses, but it's not asking a lot to hit 40 points with the talent these two have on the offensive side of the ball. Minnesota's offense is better than it gets credit for. The Vikings have score 23 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. They put up 29 last week against a solid Saints defense and I expect them to be around that 23-27 mark in this one. The Eagles come in averaging 27.8 ppg, but haven't been quite as potent with Nick Foles under center. They put up just 15 on the Falcons last week, but did have some success moving the ball. They just had to settle for a couple field goals and had two costly turnovers. Minnesota's defense is very good, but it's not as dominant on the road. All we need is to average 10-points a quarter to clear this mark and I think we get that and some more. OVER is 15-4 in the Vikings last 19 road games off a home win where they failed to cover as a favorite and 7-0 in the Eagles last 7 games after posting a turnover margin of -1 or worse in two straight games. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Lions v. Bengals OVER 43.5 | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Lions OVER I think we are getting some decent value here on the OVER in Sunday's NFL total between the Lions and Bengals. The last two games for Cincinnati have been a complete embarrassment to the players and franchise. They lost at home to the Bears 7-33 and then followed that up with a 7-34 loss at Minnesota. Couple of things to note about those two performances. The first is the game against Chicago was a major letdown spot after their crushing loss to the Steelers at home the week before, which all but eliminated them from playoff contention. Then last week prior to their game against the Vikings it was reported that head coach Marvin Lewis was going to resign and I don't think it sat well with players that they had to learn of the news via the media. With all that behind them, I think we are going to see a much better effort from Cincinnati in what will be the final home game for Lewis. The players might not like him leaving, but he's done a lot to get this franchise back on the map and I think they will want his final home game to be one to remember. I'm really expecting a big game from the offense here. Keep in mind that it didn't help matters they were going up against two really good defenses in the Bears and Vikings. Detroit comes in ranked 27th in the league in total defense, giving up 362.3 ypg and are 28th against the pass (251.2 ypg). Look for Andy Dalton and A.J. Green to get going. As for the Lions offense, I think we see them put up some points as well. It's looking less and less likely that star linebacker Vontaze Burfict will suit up and he's the guy that really makes this defense click. There's also several other key guys on that side of the ball banged up. Detroit has scored at last 20 points in 7 straight games and should eclipse that mark here, which I think will be more than enough to push us over the mark. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
3* Falcons/Bucs MNF Total NO BRAINER on Falcons OVER These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the mark set by the books here tonight. Typically division games are a little more low scoring, but that's simply not the case with these two teams. Each of the last 3 games in this series have seen these two teams combine for at least 54 points, including a recent meeting in Week 12 at Atlanta and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting at QB for the Bucs. Jameis Winston has since returned to the line. While turnovers continue to be a problem for Winston, there's a good chance if those mistakes happen tonight, it's going to set up the Falcons with a short field. Either way, I think the Bucs offensively are going to put up a big number and they are going to need it, as the Falcons should score early and often. In that recent meeting in Week 12, Atlanta had 516 total yards and had 20 points at the half. OVER is 5-1 the last 6 times the Falcons have been on Monday Night Football. OVER is also 15-5-1 in Atlanta's last 21 off a win and 10-0-1 in their last 11 against a team with a losing record. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
12-17-17 | Patriots v. Steelers OVER 53 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 1 m | Show | |
3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pats OVER I think we are going to see a lot of offensive fireworks in Sunday's huge AFC showdown between the Steelers and Patriots. Forget about how bad New England's offense looked last week against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. The Patriots didn't show up ready to play and Brady played about as poorly as he has all season. The great players almost always rebound from a bad showing like that with one of their best games. Let's also not forget he was without a big time weapon in tight end Rob Gronkowski. I also think this Steelers defense is no where close to what it was early on in the season, as they recently lost their best player on that side of the ball in Ryan Shazier. He doesn't get the respect as some of the big time players in this league, but I think his importance to this defense is similar to that of Luke Kuechley with the Panthers. In the very first game without him last week against the Ravens, they let Baltimore put up 38 points and nearly 415 yards of offense. That's not a good Ravens offense and keep in mind they held Baltimore to just 9 points and 288 total yards on the road earlier this season. On the flip side of this, I think we are going to see Big Ben and the Steelers offense have a lot of success here. While the Patriots defense has been playing better, they too have lost some key players on defense and have several others who are questionable to play this week. I think we get more than enough here from Pittsburgh to push this well past the total set by the books. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
12-14-17 | Broncos v. Colts OVER 40.5 | 25-13 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
3* Broncos/Colts TNF Total ANNIHILATOR on Colts OVER I really like the value here with the OVER in Thursday's NFL action that has the Colts hosting the Broncos. It's no secret that Denver has a great defense. Those that forgot, the Broncos reminded them of how good they are last week against the Jets, who they shutout and held to 100 total yards. I believe that strong effort combined with the Colts struggles on offense has this total way to low. The biggest thing here is that neither team has anything to play for right now and it's no secret how much these players hate these Thursday night games. I just don't see either team being all that motivated in this one and we continue to see teams struggle defensively in these Thursday games. As good as the numbers say Denver's defense is, they had allowed at least 20 points in 8 straight prior to last week and are giving up a staggering 30.5 ppg. As far as the Colts defense is concerned, they aren't very good. I also think we see both teams take a lot more shots down the field with this game not meaning anything. Wouldn't be shocked at all if these two hit 50 points. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
12-10-17 | Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 42 | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 115 h 43 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Giants UNDER I think we are getting some great value here on the total for Sunday's NFC East showdown between the Cowboys and Giants. With last week's impressive 38-14 win over the Redskins, Dallas improved to 6-6, keeping their playoff hopes alive. New York lost 17-24 at Oakland and following the loss the team fired head coach Ben McAdoo. They also stated that after not starting against the Raiders, Eli Manning would take back the starting job. It might seem like the Giants are a mess right now, but I'm pretty confident they are going to show up to play on Sunday. Simply put, these NFC East teams hate each other and New York would love nothing more than to play a part in keeping the Cowboys out of the playoffs. I expect a huge effort here from the Giants and I think that defense can keep the Cowboys in check. Keep in mind that Dallas had really struggled offensively in the first 3 games without Ezekiel Elliot and a big reason they scored 38 against the Redskins is Washington was decimated with injuries and playing on the road in a short week of rest. As for the Giants' offense, there's not a lot this unit can do right now. No matter how hard they play, they are still going to be extremely limited on that side of the ball. They still don't have any threat of a running game and the offensive line can pass block. I look for a highly motivated Dallas defense to keep them in check and for this to finish well below the mark set by the books. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
12-10-17 | Lions v. Bucs OVER 43 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show | |
3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Lions OVER I think we are getting some great value here on the total in Sunday's NFL action between the Lions and Bucs. Both these teams can score points in a hurry. Detroit's one of the higher scoring teams in the league at 26.2 ppg. Tampa Bay comes in averaging 23.3 ppg over their last 3 and the big key here is they will be going up against a Lions defense that allows 25.7 ppg. OVER is 10-4 in the Lions last 14 road games vs a team with a losing home record and 5-0 in their last 5 vs the NFC. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
12-03-17 | Texans v. Titans OVER 42.5 | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 12 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Texans OVER Everyone knows the Texans aren't anywhere close to the same offensive team with Tom Savage at quarterback. After their struggles on MNF last week against the Ravens, I don't know that the perception can get much worse with Houston's offense. No one is going to be in a hurry to place a bet on the OVER in a game involving the Texans, especially against a pretty average offense like Tennessee. I think the books are well aware of this and have set the total too low for this matchup. While Savage threw 3 picks and the Texans only scored 16 points against the Ravens, I think they showed some positive signs. Savage did complete 22 of 37 for 252 yards, as he was able to get something going with DeAndre Hopkins, who had 7 catchers for 125. Keep in mind that was against a Baltimore secondary that is giving up the 2nd fewest yards. The week before Houston put up 31 on the Cardinal. Savage had 230 yards and Hopkins had 4 for 76. The Titans come in ranked 20th against the pass, giving up 234.3 ypg. I think Savage has a decent day here and the Texans score well into the 20's. I also think Tennessee's offense will produce here. The Titans are a different offensive team on their home field, as they are scoring 26.4 ppg at home this season. Houston's defense is good but not great and I think they get a little too much credit on that side of the ball. IN their last two games they let an awful Baltimore offense put up 23 and the week before gave up 21 to a Cardinals team that was starting a 3rd stringer at QB. Marcus Mariota should play well and it wouldn't shock me if the Titans hung a 30 spot here. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
11-19-17 | Bucs v. Dolphins OVER 40.5 | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 85 h 12 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Dolphins OVER I just think this total has been set to low for Sunday's non-conference matchup between two teams that have been major disappointments in 2017. The Dolphins have lost 3 straight and are now just 4-5 and the Bucs are even worse at 3-6. Tampa Bay without starting quarterback Jameis Winston and the Dolphins viewed as one of the worst offense teams in the league. I believe that's playing a big part in this low total, which has created value with two bad defenses facing off. Miami has given up 40 or more in two of their last 3 games and have allowed at least 27 in 4 straight. This is the perfect defense for Tampa Bay's struggling offense to get back on track. As for the Bucs defense, they looked good last week against the Jets, but have allowed 30 or more 4 times already and this horrible Dolphins offense just put up 21 on the Panthers in Carolina and 24 the week before against the Raiders. It's not as bad as people think, and they due are poised for a bit of a breakout performance. Going back to last season the OVER is now 10-1 in Dolphins' games played in the 2nd half of the season. It's also a perfect 7-0 in Miami's last 7 home games after playing their previous game on the road. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
11-12-17 | Chargers v. Jaguars UNDER 41 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Chargers UNDER I believe we have a great matchup here for a low scoring game that will finish well below the mark set by the books. By now most everyone is aware of how good this Jacksonville defense has been this season. The Jaguars lead the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 14.6 ppg and are 3rd in total defense, allowing just 281.3 ypg. The key here is that defense is built to stop the pass, as they are allowing a league-low 156.4 passing yards/game. Rivers and the Chargers' offense is built around the passing attack and that's evident by the fact that they rank 25th in rushing (88.9 ypg) and 12th in passing (243.9 ypg). I look for LA to have a really difficult time moving the ball here. As good as the defense has been, the Jaguars don't put the same fear into opposing teams when their offense has the ball. Jacksonville's primary focus is to just not lose the game on this side, as they are looking to grind it out by running the ball. That's perfect for a low-scoring game, as they are going to up up the clock and limit the possessions. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 43.5 | 30-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
4* Lions/Packers MNF Total NO BRAINER on Packers UNDER I think we are going to see a defensive battle here on Monday Night Football between these two NFC North rivals. I also think we are getting some value here because of how high scoring this series has been, with each of the last 3 meetings seeing at least 50 combined points. That was with Aaron Rodgers starting at QB for Green Bay. Without Rodgers under center the Packers simply don't have the offensive fire-power to win in a shootout. Keep in mind they scored just 10 points against Minnesota when Rodgers suffered the injury early in that contest and just 17 the next week at home against the Saints. I look for Green Bay to come out looking to establish the run and play ball control, which should be easier than it has been with some key guys returning on the offensive line. As for the Packers defense, I think they show up in a big way here at home in a prime time game. Not that Green Bay wasn't already familiar with Detroit, but it will only help the defense given they have had a full two weeks to prepare for this contest coming off their bye. This is also a good matchup for the Packers, who are much better against the pass than they are at stopping the run. Detroit is built around Matthew Stafford and the 12th ranked passing attack, as they are just 28th in rushing at 82.1 ypg. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 118 h 36 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Cowboys UNDER When you look at this matchup on paper you would think these two will fly over the total, as you have the Cowboys coming in averaging 28.3 ppg and the Chiefs even better at 29.5 ppg. I see it the exact opposite and expect a much more tightly contested battle where both teams try to play keep away by using their high-powered running attacks to control the time of possession. Dallas shouldn't have any problem doing that now that Ezekiel Elliot has been cleared to play. KC's run defense is one of the worst in the league, giving up 131.1 ypg (28th). As for the Chiefs, they got a pretty special young running back of their own in Kareem Hunt. He's been slowed down a bit of late on the ground, but should be able to get going here as the Chiefs are finally getting back to 100% heath on the o-line. At the same time, KC does a lot of dink and dunk stuff with their offense that works just like running the ball, as their drives take up a lot of time. UNDER is 16-7 in the Chiefs last 23 games in the month of November, 24-7 in their last 31 after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 25 or more in 2 straight games. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
11-05-17 | Rams v. Giants UNDER 42 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 56 m | Show |
5* NFC Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rams UNDER With both the Rams and Giants coming off of their bye weeks, I expect a much lower scoring game than we would have got had these two been playing on normal rest. Each has had two weeks to prepare for the other side and that's a big advantage for these defenses. I also think there's some hidden value here with New York's defense, as they are very familiar with the schemes of McVay and the Rams from his time with the Redskins. As for the Giants offense, there's not a lot to be excited about. New York's down a couple of starters on the offensive line in center Weston Richburg and left guard Justin Pugh. Even when healthy the unit hasn't been. That combined with no threat of a running game and a passing attack that's missing their two star wide outs and it's going to be hard for New York to sustain drives against this improving LA stop unit. UNDER is a rock solid 9-2 in the Rams last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and 11-3 in their last 14 games played on field turf. UNDER is also 7-1 in the Giants last 8 against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in their last 7 home games. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 44 h 51 m | Show |
5* Steelers/Lions SNF VEGAS INSIDER on Steelers UNDER I think we are going to see an offense struggle in Sunday's showdown between the Steelers and Lions. Detroit is going to be ready for everything Pittsburgh throws at them, as they have had two full weeks to prepare for this game and you also have to factor in the fact that the Steelers offense has historically not performed well on the road under Roethlisberger. I think that trend continues here, as the Lions have the 7th ranked run defense (94.3 ypg), which should allow them to keep Bell in check and force Big Ben to beat him with his arm. On the other side of this, Pittsburgh might have the best defense in the league. The only two games they have allowed more than 20 points was the 23 they allowed in Chicago and 30 to the Jaguars. Note that 7 of those points in the game against the Bears came in OT and 14 of the Jacksonville's 30 were a result of two defensive touchdowns. UNDER is 20-9 over the last 3 seasons in games involving the Steelers with a total of 42.5 to 49 points. UNDER is also 11-3 in Pittsburgh's last 14 road games and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 off a win by 14 or more points. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
10-29-17 | Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 49.5 | 33-19 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Cowboys UNDER I think the books have set the bar too high for Sunday's NFC East showdown between the Cowboys and Redskins. These two teams don't like each other and some consider the biggest rivalry in the league. This is also a huge game for both teams, as each comes into this one at 3-3. I know the Redskins just gave up 34 to Eagles last week, but the defense will be getting a big boost with the return of star corner Josh Norman. Not only is he an elite shutdown corner, who can shutdown Dez Bryant, but the entire defense feeds off his intensity. As for Washington's offense, I think this week could be a struggle. We already know that starting center Spencer Long and they could also be without starting left tackle Trent Williams and elite right guard Brandon Scherff. That's going to make it hard for the Cousins to get the passing game going. I think both teams will focus on the running game in this one, which should limit the possessions and keep us well below the mark. UNDER is 14-5 in the Cowboys last 19 road games and 9-1 in their last 10 on the road when they come in off a game that went OVER the total. UNDER is also 32-17 in the Redskins last 49 after 3 or more straight losses and 4-1 in their last 5 home games. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
10-29-17 | Bears v. Saints OVER 48 | 12-20 | Loss | -110 | 135 h 44 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bears OVER I could see some people being scared of taking the OVER here given how bad the Bears offense was last week against the Panthers. Chicago totaled just 153 yards and had a mere 5 first downs (won 17-3). The thing is, even bad offenses tend to put up some points when take the field in the superdome. The OVER is 12-3-1 in the Saints last 16 home games (2-0 this season). It's also 11-1 in the Saints last 12 games regardless of location when they are facing a team with a losing record. The biggest thing to keep in mind with the Bears horrific offensive showing last week, is the Panthers are an elite defense. While the Saints have been playing better on that side of the ball, the shutout they had on the Dolphins looks a lot less impressive after Miami's showing on Thursday. New Orleans still ranks 20th against the run (114.2 ypg) and 21st against the pass (236.8 ypg). Chicago's defense has quietly put up great numbers this year, but have struggled to play well defensively on the road. The Bears have played 3 road games and are giving up nearly 30 ppg (29.3). Last time the Saints played at home they put up 52 on Detroit and I expect another big number here to push this well over the mark. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
10-29-17 | Chargers v. Patriots OVER 48 | 13-21 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 13 m | Show | |
3* NFL Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Chargers OVER With the UNDER cashing in 3 straight Patriots games, I think we are getting some great value here with a total less than 50. I know the results are a lot better, I just think they are a bit misleading. The defense turnaround started with a Thursday night game at Tampa, where Belichick's gameplan was perfect on the Bucs offense. They then held the Jets to 17, which doesn't say a lot. They then held the Falcons to just 7 on SNF last week. The thing is, Atlanta left at least 13 points on the board. I think a closer resemblance of the first 4 weeks with the Patriots defense here against Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Rivers should have a big game here. He runs the leagues 8th ranked passing attack at 251.3 ypg and will be facing the league's worst ranked pass defense, which is giving up a staggering 310.3 ypg. As for the Patriots offense, I think they have a big game of their own. New England is 6th in scoring at 27.9 ppg and lead the league with 410.7 ypg. Brady is going to get his and the Pats should be able to pick up big chunks on the ground against the Charger's league worst run defense (140.6 ypg). OVER is 22-7 in the Patriots last 29 home games vs a team with a losing road record, 7-3 in their last 10 after allowing less than 15 points and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 off a SU win by more than 14 points. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
10-29-17 | Vikings v. Browns OVER 37.5 | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 84 h 55 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Vikings OVER I just feel there's too much value here with the OVER in Sunday's game between the Vikings and Browns in London. More times than not, defenses have struggled to play up to their potential in these games overseas. I have major concerns with Cleveland's stop unit, as I just can't imagine that the Browns are treating this like a business trip given they are going nowhere at 0-7. I don't think it's out of the question that Minnesota could get this total on their own. Note that Cleveland's defense has struggled playing away from home in the states. They allowed 24 to the anemic Ravens offense, 31 to the Colts and 33 to the Texans in their 3 road games. As bad as the Browns offense has been, I think we can get close to double-digits from them in this one. As good as Minnesota's defense has been, they have allowed at least 10 points in every game. I think they have a couple lapses here, as it will be hard for them to give Cleveland their full attention with all the distractions. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens UNDER 37.5 | 0-40 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
3* Dolphins/Ravens TNF Total ANNIHILATOR on Dolphins UNDER I can see how some might be tempted to go the other way given this being such a low number, but I just think this is going to be one of those ugly games where neither team can get anything going offensively. I mean these are two of the worst offenses in the NFL. Baltimore is scoring just 18.6 ppg and are 31st in total offense at 377.5 ypg. As bad as that looks, Miami is even worse at 15.3 ppg and 32nd in total offense at 261.9 ypg. I know the Ravens defense has not played great the past few weeks, but this is an offense they can handle and Miami's down to backup QB Matt Moore. The Dolphins defense had a bit of a slip up last week against the Jets but overall have been really good this year and should have no problem against the anemic Ravens offense. UNDER is 4-0 in the Dolphins last 4 road games, 8-0-1 in their last 9 games played on Thursday and 6-1 in their last 6 overall. UNDER 11-5 in Ravens last 16 home games and 8-2 in their last 10 after a game in which they totaled less than 250 total yards. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
10-22-17 | Seahawks v. Giants UNDER 40 | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Seahawks UNDER Don't be fooled by the Giants putting up 23 points last week against Denver. It was the Broncos mistakes on offense that got them to that mark. Denver turned it over 3 times, including an interception that the Giants defense returned for a score. They also had drives of 30 yards or less for two of their three field goals. Broncos basically handed them 13 points and they only scored 23. They finished the game with just 266 total yards and 12 first downs. I don't see them getting so fortunate with the turnovers against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense, which I think is going to have this one finishing well below the mark here. While the offense will struggle to do much of anything against a Seattle stop unit that is well rested and prepared coming off a bye, their defense should be able to hold their own against a Seahawks offense that has scored fewer than 17 points in 3 of their 5 games so far this season. Last time out Seattle was +3 in the turnover margin with the Rams and that's worth noting, as the Seahawks are 16-5 under Pete Carroll when playing on the road after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. UNDER is also 5-1 in the Giants last 6 at home and 6-1 in their last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
10-22-17 | Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 44 | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 54 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Jags/Colts UNDER The books have set the bar too high for Sunday's AFC East matchup between the Colts and Jaguars. It's no secret the Colts aren't an explosive offensive team. Indy ranks just 28th in the NFL at 301.2 ypg. I don't see them getting it going against a good Jaguars defense. At the same time, I think the Colts defense will be able to hold their own here against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has no trust in Blake Bortles and are relying solely on their running game this season. It's a big reason they aren't lighting up the scoreboard. After scoring just 17 at home last week against the Rams, they have scored 20 or less 3 times this season. Their style of play also keeps the clock moving, which limits the possessions for both teams and favors a lower-scoring game. Division games often are also a lot more lower-scoring than you would expect. It's certainly been the case when these two face off. The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in the series with a perfect 6-0 mark in Indianapolis. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
10-22-17 | Bucs v. Bills UNDER 45 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
5* NFL Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bills/Bucs UNDER The books have set the total for this one too high. Buffalo has a stingy defense and are a run-first team, which has led to the UNDER cashing in 4 of their 5 games and the lone matchup that eclipsed the total had just 42 points with a total of 40. That defense leads the league allowing just 14.8 ppg and figures to be at it's best here with the Bills coming off a bye and facing a banged up Jameis Winston, who is dealing with a shoulder injury but is expected to play. Tampa Bay's defense has struggle at times this year, but that's was more of a result of guys getting injured than the talent on the field. The Bucs are as healthy as they have been on that side of the ball and should have no problem here limiting a below-average Buffalo offense that ranks 31st in total offense (271.6 ypg) and 27th in scoring (17.8 ppg). Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
10-15-17 | Giants v. Broncos UNDER 39.5 | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 101 h 24 m | Show | |
3* Giants/Broncos SNF Total NO BRAINER on Denver UNDER This one shouldn't need a whole lot of explanation. Denver's defense is one of the best in the NFL and will be taking on a depleted New York offense that is without it's top three wideouts in Odell Beckham Jr, Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard. Not to mention an offensive line that has been atrocious and zero threat of a running game. Eli Manning is going to have to work wonders here just to get first downs, as he's getting a fresh Denver defense off a bye and playing at home in a prime time game. While the offense figures to struggle to put points on the board, there's still a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball for the Giants. Denver comes in averaging a modest 24.5 ppg, but have actually only scored more than 24 points once all season. They have managed just 16 in each of their last two games against the Bills and Raiders. UNDER is 30-16 in the Giants last 46 road games against AFC opponents and 8-1 in the Broncos last 9 games vs a team from the NFC. UNDER is also 23-8 in New York's last 31against strong defensive teams that are allowing 4.75 or less yards/play. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
10-15-17 | Rams v. Jaguars UNDER 44 | 27-17 | Push | 0 | 130 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rams UNDER Who would have thought these two teams would be headed into Week 6 with a winning record, as both teams come in at 3-2. This is a huge game for both sides, as the winner moves to 4-2 and in good shape of making the playoffs, while the loser falls to 3-3 and has a lot of work left to do. I expect the intensity level to be high and while the offenses have shined at times for both sides, I expect the defenses to be the story in this one. Jacksonville's defense has carried them to their strong start. Jacksonville comes in ranked 2nd in scoring defense, giving up just 16.6 ppg. Their strength has been their secondary, which is 3rd in the league, allowing only 177.8 ypg. This Rams team is built more on their passing attack, even with the talent Todd Gurley in the backfield. Los Angeles' defense had struggled early under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but it was just a matter of time before they got it figured out. It started in the 2nd half against Dallas, where they held the Cowboys to just 6 points and continued last week against the Seahawks. A big reason for the turnaround was Phillips decision to move nose tackle Michael Brockers to defensive end to make way for rookie Tanzal Smart to take over at nose. Phillips also benched starting safety Maurice Alexander (since been released) in favor of rookie John Johnson. I fully expect this defense to continue to play well and the Jaguars are far from an explosive offensive team. UNDER is 35-17-1 in the Rams last 53 road games, 10-2 in their last 12 road games after the 1st month of the season and 9-2 in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
10-15-17 | 49ers v. Redskins UNDER 46.5 | 24-26 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NFL Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Redskins/49ers UNDER Late add here on the total in Sunday's early game between the 49ers and Redskins. I really like what I have seen from this Washington defense. They rank inside the Top 10 in total defense (311.3 ypg) and are 13th in scoring defense (22.8 ppg). Keep in mind they have given up two fumble return for TDs in the final minutes of two of their games to hurt that scoring average. You also can't overlook that they have played 4 of the better offensive teams in the Eagles, Raiders (w/ Carr), Rams and Chiefs. San Francisco is by far the worst offense they have faced in 2017. The 49ers have faced 2 defenses that I think are close to on par with the Redskins and that's the Panthers and Seahawks. They totaled just 12-points in the two games combined. They also had just 15 against the Cardinals. Just not enough fire-power for the 49ers. I also think they come out flat here offensively with this being their 3rd straight game on the road and Washington off a bye. Key here is that San Francisco's defense should be able to do enough here to keep Washington from putting up a huge number and pushing this over the mark. Note that the Redskins offense isn't quite as dynamic this year, as they have put a little more focus on ball control and running the football. Washington ranks 7th in rushing at 130 ypg. Last year they were 21st at 106 ypg. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers UNDER 46 | 28-23 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 10 m | Show | |
4* Eagles/Panthers TNF Total NO BRAINER on Panthers UNDER While we have two good offenses run by two of the better QBs in the NFL, I think it will the defenses that dictate this one. I also feel the number on the total is inflated given that the Eagles have gone OVER in 3 of their last 4 and the Panthers have went OVER in each of their last 3. A lot of that had to do with who these teams played. The Eagles are only giving up 19.8 ppg and the strength of their defense is stopping the run. Philadelphia ranks 2nd in the league, giving up just 62.8 ypg. Carolina is a team that would much rather run the ball, but haven't had a ton of success because of a shaky offensive line. I expect Cam to make some plays, but there's going to be a lot of drives that don't result in points. I see a similar story for the Eagles' offense, as they go up against a really talented Carolina defense that has really played well to start the season. The Panthers rank 6th in run defense, giving up just 80 ypg and are 5th against the pass, allowing only 194 ypg. Add in the fact that are playing at home in a prime time game and the defense should be even better than normal, as they feed off the energy of the crowd. UNDER is 39-17 in the Eagles last 56 games after a contest where they scored 30 or more. It's also 18-4 in the Panthers last 22 off a close road win by 3 points or less and 9-1 in their last 10 home games after allowing 50 or less rushing yards. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs UNDER 55.5 | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
4* Pats/Bucs NFL Thursday 'TOTAL ANNIHILATOR' on Pats UNDER I like the value here with the total in Thursday Night Football's showdown between the Patriots and Buccaneers. All we have heard about coming into this game is how bad New England's defense has been playing. It has been bad, but it's also forced the books to inflate this total tonight. This total is higher than 55 that the books set when the Patriots were playing at New Orleans. I just don't think Jameis Winston and the Bucs have the same offensive fire-power as Drew Brees and the Saints. At the same time, no one is better at figuring out the problem and getting it fixed than Bill Belichick. Look for the Patriots offense to help out the defense here and try to take a little more time off the clock when they have the ball. I actually think the Bucs are going to have a similar strategy here, as they don't want to give the ball to Brady and that high-powered Patriots offense. Good news for Tampa is they get back their best back in Doug Martin and should be able to have some success on the ground in this one. I also expect an all out effort here by the Bucs defense, who desperately want to play well here at home in a prime time game. UNDER is 8-1 in the Pats last 9 games played on grass and is 4-1 in the Bucs last 5 games at home. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
10-01-17 | Rams v. Cowboys UNDER 48 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 41 m | Show |
5* NFC 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Rams UNDER I think we are getting a drastically inflated total here. Dallas has the perception of being a high-scoring team and just scored 28 on the road on Monday Night Football against what most consider to be a good Cardinals defense. The Cowboys were fortunate to get to 28 points with just 273 total yards. Das Prescott only threw for 183, as he continues to struggle. This Dallas offense only had 19 in Week 1 against the Giants and 17 the week before against the Broncos. I know this Rams defense has looked bad to start the year, but there's a ton of the same players from last year's defense that was really good. Including arguably the best interior defensive lineman in the league in Aaron Donald. He's more than good enough to cause some problems for the Cowboys o-line. I also think it's only a matter of time before Wade Phillips get this unit playing up to it's potential. This could very well be the week, as they have had a few extra days of practice and preparation after playing on Thursday in Week 2. Keep in mind Dallas is on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football. That one day difference might not seem like much, but every day matters when it comes to recovering from an NFL game. While the offense is overvalued right now, the Dallas defense doesn't get near the respect they deserve. They get treated like one of the worst units in the league because they don't have any super stars the fans can relate to. They finished 14th in total defense and 5th in scoring defense last year. The Rams looked good offensively on prime time, but that was against the 49ers. They didn't look nearly as good the previous week against Washington. I don't see them lighting up this defense on the road. Take the UNDER 48! |
|||||||
09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants OVER 42 | 24-10 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
3* Lions/Giants MNF Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Giants/Lions OVER I just think the books have set the total too low in a big overreaction to how bad the Giants offense looked in Week 1 against the Cowboys. Especially now the star wide out Odell Beckham Jr. is listed as probable. Having him on the field is going to really open up the offense for New York and I'm not buying the Lions defense. Detroit's defense wasn't great in Week 1 against the Cardinals and I just don't see them being able to keep the Giants from moving the ball and finishing off drives with touchdowns. While New York's defense is solid, they could be without a key piece in corner Janoris Jenkins, who was downgraded to questionable. History also suggest a high-scoring game here with NY, as the OVER is 17-8 in the Giants last 25 games after a game where they accumulated less than 250 total yards. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals OVER 37.5 | 13-9 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
3* Texans/Bengals TNF Total 'NO BRAINER' on OVER Given what we saw in Week 1, which was the Bengals getting shutout at home and the Texans managing just 9 at home against the Jags, it's going to be extremely difficult for the public to take the OVER, and they rarely side with the UNDER. I believe we are seeing a classic Week 1 overreaction and a ton of value on this extremely low total for Thursday Night Football. Keep in mind that NFL players hate these Thursday night games and a big reason is because their bodies just don't have the time to recover. I believe that's a big reason why we see defenses struggle to play up to their potential in this spot. At the same time, both offenses are better than what they showed. Cincinnati's got some playmakers on offense and Dalton isn't going to throw 4 picks and have a fumble. Houston has Watt and Clowney, but the overall talent isn't great and they just lost a key piece in linebacker Brian Cushing. As for the Texans offense, I like their decision here to go with the rookie Watson. His ability to scramble is critical with how poor Houston's pass blocking was in the opener. He's also likely to make a couple rookie mistakes, which likely sets the Bengals up with some easy scoring opportunities. A simple 21-17 or 24-14 final would get us a winning ticket. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
12-24-16 | Redskins v. Bears OVER 47 | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Redskins/Bears OVER I think we are going to see a lot of offensive fireworks in this one. Washington is a team that just seems to find themselves in high-scoring games, but are coming off a 15-26 loss at home to the Panthers, which I think is keeping this total lower than it should be. Prior to that game, Washington had a total of 48 or more in 6 of their previous 7 games, the only exception coming against the Vikings, which had a total of 42 (combined for 46). The Bears defense hasn't been horrible, but I think they are going to have a really hard time showing up here. They put everything they had into last week's home game against rival Green Bay. Even if they did come to play, they were going to struggle to slow down this high-powered Washington offense that hasn't failed to score fewer than 20 points in back-to-back games all season. The big key here is the Bears offense should be able to keep pace with the Redskins. Washington's defense is atrocious and have allowed 20 or more points in 9 straight games, giving up 26 or more in 3 of their last 4. Chicago has had their ups and downs offensively, but I really like what I have seen out of Barkley and he just threw for 354 yards and 2 scores against the Packers last week. That game was the first for Barkley with Alshon Jeffery, who returned from a suspension. Jeffrey caught 6 passes for 89 yards and 1 touchdown and I look for him to be even more involved this week. OVER is 8-1 in Washington's last 9 with a spread of 3 or less, 9-1 this season with a total of 42.5 to 49 and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 off a SU loss. OVER is also 9-1 in the Bears last 10 home games off a home loss to a division rival and 13-2 in their last 15 after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
12-18-16 | Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 44 | 16-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
4* Patriots/Broncos NFL Situational No Brainer on UNDER There's a lot of interest on the spread in this one, but I think the value here is on the total and this one going UNDER the mark. These are two of the best defenses in the league and the conditions this time of year certainly favor that side of the ball. Denver comes in 3rd in total defense (310.7 ypg) and 6th in scoring defense (18.6 ppg). New England is 10th in total defense (338.1 ypg) and 3rd in scoring defense (17.7 ppg). Both also rank in the top 13 in the league in 3rd down defense, which is key here, as both sides will struggle to sustain drives. I know the Patriots offense looked great against the Ravens last week, but that was at home and Baltimore is better suited to stop the run than the pass and lost one of their top corners early in that game. New England's offense simply isn't the same without Gronkowski, especially in the redzone. Denver's pass rush should also play a huge factor in not allowing Brady and company to put up many long drives. Don't really need to go into detail on the struggles with Denver's offense. Trevor Siemian simply isn't the quarterback talent required to have success against a Belichick coached defense. The Broncos inability to run the football will be detrimental to their success offensively in this one, as Belichick will put together a gameplan to make sure Denver's two star wideouts are a non factor. The other big key here is what this game means to both teams. New England desperately wants to get the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and to do so can't afford to lose this game. As for the Broncos, this has the feeling of a playoff game, as they are barely hanging on to the final Wild Card spot and the schedule doesn't get any easier after this one. All signs point to a low scoring game. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
12-18-16 | 49ers v. Falcons OVER 50.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
5* 49ers/Falcons NFL No Limit Top Play on OVER I don't know that the books can set a total high enough here, as they are pretty stubborn when it comes to listing a total much more than this. I expect plenty of points here from Atlanta, who isn't going to let their foot off the gas, as they are tied with the Bucs for first in the NFC South and failing to win the division could result in missing the playoffs completely. The Falcons come in clicking offensively, having scored 28 or more in each of their last 3, including a 42 point outburst last week at the Rams. Keep in mind they were missing Julio Jones and going up against a pretty good LA defense. Now they face a 49ers defense that ranks dead last in the NFL, giving up 415 ypg. San Francisco is also giving up an average of 29.5 ppg on the road and have zero to play for at this juncture of the season. The key here is that I believe the 49ers can provide enough scoring to get this well over the 50-point mark. San Francisco is a 2 touchdown dog in this one, so I don't see the defensive intensity being there for Atlanta. At the same time, the Falcons figure to get out to a comfortable lead and will be quick to play it safe and avoid anyone getting hurt. That means some favorable scoring opportunities will come the 49ers way in the 2nd half and we should only need them to score around 20 to cash this ticket. OVER is 6-0 in Atlanta's 6 home games this season and a perfect 7-0 when playing in a dome. OVER is also 4-2 in the 49ers 6 road games (avg score of 53.2 ppg). Over also a perfect 6-0 in the 49ers last 6 road games against excellent passing teams, who are completing 64% or more more of their attempts (Falcons are completing 72% at home this season). Take the OVER! |
|||||||
12-11-16 | Bears v. Lions OVER 43 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
5* NFC North Total of the Month on Bears/Lions OVER I know these two teams only combined for 31 points in the first meeting. But keep in mind the total for that one was 48 and is now 43.5. That’s a big jump and this time they are playing in ideal conditions with Detroit playing in a Dome. If you look back over the years, these two have a history of lighting up the scoreboard when the Lions are hosting. In fact, the last 4 meetings in Detroit have seen a combined score of at least 50 points. Last year the two combined for 71 in a 37-34 Lions win. I certainly don’t expect the Bears to hold Detroit under 20 points again. The Lions are clicking offensively after putting up 422 yards of offense on the Saints last week. A game if they don’t settle for 5 field goals, could have scored 40+ on their own. Chicago’s defense played well against the 49ers last Sunday, but that’s not saying much. Plus the conditions were ideal for a low-scoring game with the snow and wind at Soldier Field. One of the reasons we are seeing a low total is the Bears are starting Matt Barkley at quarterback. I’ve actually been really impressed with him in his two starts. He threw for 316 yards and 3 scores against the Titans in Week 12 and that was with his receivers dropping 10 passes. he then completed 61% and threw for 192 yards in the awful conditions last week. As good as the Lions secondary was against Brees last week, they still rank 20th against the pass. OVER is 11-2 in Detroit’s last 13 after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games. It’s also 12-2 in the Lions last 14 after a road win by 10 or more points. OVER is also 5-1 in the Bears last 6 after allowing 15 or less and 25-12 in their last 37 road games. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
11-27-16 | Panthers v. Raiders OVER 49.5 | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Panthers/Raiders OVER I think we are going to see a lot of offensive fireworks on Sunday when the Raiders host the Panthers. For starters, these are two very capable offenses. Carolina comes in averaging 24.4 ppg, while the Raiders are scoring 27.2 ppg. On top of that, both defenses have had their struggles this season, the Panthers are giving up 24.6 ppg overall and 30.0 ppg on the road, while Oakland is allowing 24.3 ppg overall and 28.0 ppg at home. I think there's good reason to believe both defenses won't be at their best. Carolina will be without star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, which is arguably the one player they can't afford to lose on that side of the ball. That's going to open up some running lanes for the Raiders, who also figure to have a big day throwing the ball, as Carolina comes in with the 26th ranked pass defense. As for Oakland's defense, it's one of the worst in the league, ranking 29th overall (24th against the run and 28th against the pass). I also think they come out flat on that side of the ball playing on short rest, along with the travel after playing last week in Mexico on Monday Night Football. OVER is 10-2 in the Panthers last 12 against a team with a winning record, 9-1 in their last 10 road games against a bad defensive team that's allowing 350 or more yards/game and 8-1 in their last 9 road games against a strong offensive team that's averaging 24 or more points/game. OVER is also 10-2 in the Raiders last 12 against a strong offensive team that's averaging 24+ points/game. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
11-24-16 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
5* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East Total of the Month on OVER While these two only combined for 50 points in the first meeting, it could have been a lot more. There were 10 scoring drives in the game and 5 of those were field goals. They also got 50 with only 7-points scored combined between the two in the 4th quarter. There were over 800 yards of total offense with each team finishing with 24 first downs. Keep in mind that was all the way back in Week 2. Dak Prescott was making just his second career start. At the same time, Washington’s offense was no were close to as good as it is at this point in the season. A key player that wasn’t a factor for the Redskins offense at that time was running back Robert Kelly. He didn’t even have a carry in that contest. Kelly has rushed for 321 yards and 4 scores in Washington’s last 3 games. Having a true threat of a running game really takes this Redskins offense to the next level. Keep in mind they only had 432 rushing yards in their first 5 games of the season. While the offense can score with anyone, Washington’s defense is prone to giving up a lot of big plays. The Redskins are ranked 23rd in total defense, giving up 371.3 ypg. Most importantly given this matchup, is their struggles against the run. Washington comes in allowing 112.1 yards/game on the ground. So while the Cowboys like to work the clock, they figure to have some big plays that result in some quick scores. Ezekiel Elliot was just getting going the last time these two played and he still put up 83 yards on 21 attempts. I also think there's an extra edge to the offense on both sides, as these two defenses aren't going to be flying around the field playing on short rest. OVER is 14-4 in the Redskins last 18 road games after scoring 35 or more points. It’s also 8-1 in their last 9 after gaining more than 400 yards of total offense. OVER is also 24-11 in the Cowboys last 35 home games after 3 or more consecutive wins. Take the OVER! |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Jimmy Boyd NFL Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers UNDER 46.5 | 30-33 | Loss | -102 | 34 h 42 m | Show | |
10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 59 | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 140 h 13 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 45.5 | 23-21 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 41 m | Show | |
10-07-18 | Titans v. Bills OVER 39 | 12-13 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 15 m | Show | |
10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots UNDER 51.5 | 24-38 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 55 m | Show | |
09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 51 | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 96 h 41 m | Show |
09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 52.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 168 h 48 m | Show | |
01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 38.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 96 h 29 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Lions v. Bengals OVER 43.5 | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 29 m | Show | |
12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
12-17-17 | Patriots v. Steelers OVER 53 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 1 m | Show | |
12-14-17 | Broncos v. Colts OVER 40.5 | 25-13 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
12-10-17 | Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 42 | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 115 h 43 m | Show | |
12-10-17 | Lions v. Bucs OVER 43 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show | |
12-03-17 | Texans v. Titans OVER 42.5 | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 12 m | Show | |
11-19-17 | Bucs v. Dolphins OVER 40.5 | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 85 h 12 m | Show | |
11-12-17 | Chargers v. Jaguars UNDER 41 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 43.5 | 30-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 118 h 36 m | Show | |
11-05-17 | Rams v. Giants UNDER 42 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 56 m | Show |
10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 44 h 51 m | Show |
10-29-17 | Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 49.5 | 33-19 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 39 m | Show | |
10-29-17 | Bears v. Saints OVER 48 | 12-20 | Loss | -110 | 135 h 44 m | Show | |
10-29-17 | Chargers v. Patriots OVER 48 | 13-21 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 13 m | Show | |
10-29-17 | Vikings v. Browns OVER 37.5 | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 84 h 55 m | Show | |
10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens UNDER 37.5 | 0-40 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
10-22-17 | Seahawks v. Giants UNDER 40 | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
10-22-17 | Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 44 | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 54 h 57 m | Show | |
10-22-17 | Bucs v. Bills UNDER 45 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
10-15-17 | Giants v. Broncos UNDER 39.5 | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 101 h 24 m | Show | |
10-15-17 | Rams v. Jaguars UNDER 44 | 27-17 | Push | 0 | 130 h 44 m | Show | |
10-15-17 | 49ers v. Redskins UNDER 46.5 | 24-26 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers UNDER 46 | 28-23 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 10 m | Show | |
10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs UNDER 55.5 | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
10-01-17 | Rams v. Cowboys UNDER 48 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 41 m | Show |
09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants OVER 42 | 24-10 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals OVER 37.5 | 13-9 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
12-24-16 | Redskins v. Bears OVER 47 | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show | |
12-18-16 | Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 44 | 16-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
12-18-16 | 49ers v. Falcons OVER 50.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
12-11-16 | Bears v. Lions OVER 43 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
11-27-16 | Panthers v. Raiders OVER 49.5 | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
11-24-16 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |