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Frank Sawyer
Frank Sawyer is on a 20 of 27 (77%) NFL TOTALS TEAR with featured plays -- and he furthers his 14 of 19 (74%) NFL Game of the Month/Year Totals mark with his 25* NFC North Total of the Month for MNF!
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Match Up |
Pick |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Analysis |
Minnesota vs San Francisco |
San Francisco -4½ -110 |
Free |
58-76 |
Win
|
100 |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 11/26:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday night is with Minnesota plus the points versus San Francisco. Minnesota (4-1) has won two straight games after their 86-67 victory against Arkansas-Pine Bluff as a 17.5-point favorite last Tuesday. The Golden Gophers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games this season after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games in November. San Francisco (4-2) has won two games in a row after their 76-60 victory against IUPUI-Fort Wayne as a 13.5-point favorite last Wednesday. The Dons have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 130s. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Chase Center in San Francisco — and San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court when favored by 3 to 6.5. points. Take Minnesota plus the points. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 13 of 18 (72%) NFL Game of the Month/Year run even after losing the Tampa Bay-Indianapolis Under this afternoon! Frank BOUNCES BACK TONIGHT — he remains on a 7 of 10 (70%) NFL run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays that has continued his 20 of 31 (65%) NFL featured plays streak! Now Frank furthers UNLEASHES his 25* AFC Game of the Month for tonight’s Baltimore-LA Chargers ATS winner on NBC-TV at 8:20 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT! Frank is still on a 20 of 26 (77%) NFL TOTALS TEAR with featured plays to maintain his 52 of 75 (69%) NFL Totals featured plays run! Frank has 12 PRIME-TIME S-W-E-E-P-S this season which makes it 33 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since last fall — and now he furthers his 120 of 186 (65%) NFL Prime Time mark with tonight’s Baltimore-LA Chargers’ O/U winner! CA$H-IN Frank’s Sunday Night Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!
|
Ravens vs Chargers |
UNDER 48½ -110 |
Premium |
20-10 |
Win
|
100 |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-3) has won five of their last six games after their 34-20 win against Cincinnati as a 4-point favorite on November 16th. Los Angeles (4-6) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 upset loss to Green Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens offense is getting most of the attention for head coach John Harbaugh’s team after they scored at least 31 points in their fifth straight game — but the play of the Baltimore defense deserves more attention. They held the Bengals to just 272 yards last week in their 14-point victory. The Ravens are holding their opponents to just 273.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.1 Points-Per-Game — and their defense has been stingy on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 256.0 total YPG and 16.8 PPG. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after beating an AFC North rival. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Ravens have played 41 of their last 63 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in three or more games in a row. Baltimore has played two straight Overs with both those contests seeing 54 or more combined points — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have also played 4 straight Unders after playing two or more games in a row where 50 or more combined points were scored. They go back on the road where they are averaging -31.7 fewer YPG than their season average — and that is resulting in them scoring -3.8 fewer PPG away from home. To compound matters, Lamar Jackson will be without his favorite target Mark Andrews after he suffered an ankle injury last week that will keep him out for an extended period. The Ravens have played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total as a favorite in general. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 7 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Chargers have covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have played 33 of their last 51 games at home Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Los Angeles did generate 6.57 Yards-Per-Play against the Packers last week — but they have then played 35 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after generating 6.5 or more YPP in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and the Ravens have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
Saints vs Falcons |
UNDER 42½ -110 |
Premium |
15-24 |
Win
|
100 |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (261) and the Atlanta Falcons (262). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 27-19 upset loss at Minnesota as a 3-point favorite back on November 12th. Atlanta (4-6) suffered their third straight upset loss in their 25-23 loss at Arizona as a 2-point underdog on November 12th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints only managed 280 yards of offense against the Vikings' defense in their last game. Quarterback Derek Carr got knocked out of that contest — but he has cleared the concussion protocol and will play in this game. New Orleans only managed a field goal in the first half of that contest — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not scoring more than three points in the first half of their last game. They only rushed for 65 yards as well against Minnesota — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game. The Saints have not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread just once in their last five games. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where they are holding their opponents to 298.5 total Yards-Per-Game which results in their home hosts scoring 18.2 Points-Per-Game. The Saints have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. Their loss to the Cardinals two weeks ago was preceded by a 31-28 loss at home to Minnesota — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row by three points or less. The Falcons return home where they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals — and Atlanta has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (261) and the Atlanta Falcons (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
Chiefs vs Raiders |
Chiefs -8½ -110 |
Free |
31-17 |
Win
|
100 |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 11/26:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday is with the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders. Kansas City (7-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 21-17 upset loss at home to Philadelphia as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a point spread loss. Las Vegas (5-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 20-13 loss at Miami as a 14-point underdog on Sunday. The Raiders have covered the point spread in all three of their games under interim head coach Antonio Pierce — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. And while they only rushed for 36 yards against the Dolphins, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to rush for more than 50 yards. Take Kansas City minus the points. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 6 of 8 (75%) NFL run with featured plays that has continued his 19 of 29 (66%) NFL featured plays streak! Now Frank furthers his 12 of 16 (75%) NFL Game of the Month/Year mark with his 25* AFC Game of the Month — DON’T MISS IT!
|
Ravens vs Chargers |
Chargers +4 -105 |
Top Premium |
20-10 |
Loss |
-105 |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-6) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 upset loss to Green Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (8-3) has won five of their last six games after their 34-20 win against Cincinnati as a 4-point favorite on November 16th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: We are probably destined to experience moments of infuriation tonight by having a rooting interest in head coach Brandon Staley’s game management tonight. But we are betting numbers rather than endorsing head coaches — and we do get to cheer Justin Herbert in his heroic efforts to overcome his coaching. Five of the Chargers’ six losses have been by three points or less. They have suffered three upset losses this season — but they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog. They will play with desperation tonight with their season on the line — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, while they have lost and failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. Los Angeles does return home to SoFi where they are scoring a healthy 28.6 Points-Per-Game. Baltimore is riding high right now — but they did benefit from a scheduling quirk that had them play their last three games at home. The Ravens tend to get overvalued by the betting public in moments like this. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win against an AFC North rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Baltimore offense is clicking after generating 405 yards against the Bengals last week. The Ravens have scored 31 or more points in five straight games — and they have averaged 408.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests. But Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three games. Lamar Jackson has been great this season — but now he has to run the offense without his favorite target Mark Andrews given the ankle injury he suffered last week.
FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games when favored. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
Bucs vs Colts |
UNDER 46 -110 |
Top Premium |
20-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-6) has lost five of their last six games after their 27-14 loss at San Francisco as a 13.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (5-5) won their second game in a row with their 10-6 victory against New England in Germany as a 2-point favorite back on November 12th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers have failed to score more than 20 points in five of their last six games — and now starting running back Rachaad White was a late addition to the injury report yesterday as questionable. Tampa Bay only managed 287 total yards last week against the 49ers. They are scoring only 19.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 304.7 Yards-Per-Game this season. The Buccaneers have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Bucs have struggled to get a running game going all season which has left the offense imbalanced as too reliant on the passing attack behind Baker Mayfield — so the potential absence of White is particularly concerning. Tampa Bay has not rushed for more than 81 yards in six straight games — and they have then played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in four or more games in a row including playing Unders in seven of their last eight games Under the Total under those circumstances. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in five straight contests. The Buccaneers stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road having lost two of their last three games. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Indianapolis only managed to generate 264 yards of offense two weeks ago against the Patriots defense. In their last three games with Gardner Minshew as their starting quarterback. the Colts are averaging just 277.7 total YPG which is resulting in only 21.3 PPG. Management released their veteran linebacker Shaq Leonard this week in a cost-cutting move made possible by the improved play of their younger players on their roster. Indy has allowed only 19 combined points in their last two games. The defense has produced 30 sacks this season from 12 different players — and they have 61 tackles for loss along with 65 hits on the quarterback which made Leonard’s contract expendable. Indianapolis has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 19 combined points were scored. They have played two Unders in a row — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 12 of their last 14 home games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 40-49% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: The Colts have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as the favorite — and the Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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PICKS IN PROGRESS
Nov 27 '23, 8:15 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NFL |
Bears vs Vikings
Play on: Bears +3½ -112 at linepros
Game Analysis
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss at Detroit as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 21-20 loss at Denver as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago had a 98.2% win probability to beat the Lions with just 4:15 minutes left in the fourth quarter — but they then gave up two touchdowns in those final four minutes to blow that game. The bigger takeaway from that result is that this Bears team is better than their record. They have -3 net losses in their four games decided by one scoring possession. They are only getting outgained by -2.0 Yards-Per-Game which is the type of mark for a 5-6 or even 6-5 team. They have played four games without starting quarterback Justin Fields — and the third-year pro is playing better after a slow start to the season. He completed 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions against Detroit last week. Fields is playing for his professional future right now with Chicago in a position to take draft one of the top college quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. After staying in the pocket early in the season, Fields is using his legs more to gain yards — he rushed for 104 yards against the Lions on 18 carries. Fields was very productive last season when he was given the green light to run the ball. With everyone in this organization on the hot seat including Fields himself, expect him to continue to be aggressive with his legs. He has also been more effective in the passing game — since Week Four, Fields ranks seventh in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Dropback. The defense is playing better as of late as well — they have held their last three opponents to just 284.0 total YPG and only 22.7 PPG. In their last three games, the Bears are outgaining their opponents by +49.3 net YPG despite relying on rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent in two of those contests. Chicago has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 44 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spreads as the underdog. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after losing two of their last three games. Minnesota endured a -3 net turnover margin in their loss to the Broncos last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two of their last three games. The Vikings have held their last two opponents to just 65 and 46 rushing yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after not giving up more than 75 rushing yards in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago will be looking to avenge a 19-13 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point home underdog on October 15th. Despite Fields suffering the hand injury that kept him out for a month in that game, the Bears still outgained the Vikings by a 275-220 margin in yards fueled by a rushing attack that gained 162 yards by averaging 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Pick Released on Nov 27 at 05:27 pm
Nov 27 '23, 8:15 PM
Play Type: Top Premium Pick
NFL |
Bears vs Vikings
Play on: OVER 43½ -108
Game Analysis
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss at Detroit as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 21-20 loss at Denver as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears are giving up 28.8 Points-Per-Game when on the road this season after the Lions scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the game to steal that victory. Chicago has played 7 straight Overs after a loss by six points or less in their last game. They have played 6 straight Overs on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 6 straight Overs on the road after losing three of their last 4 games. The Bears did get Justin Fields back under center last week and he played well by completing 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. Fields is playing for his professional future right now with Chicago in a position to take draft one of the top college quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. After staying in the pocket early in the season, Fields is using his legs more to gain yards — he rushed for 104 yards against the Lions on 18 carries. Fields was very productive last season when he was given the green light to run the ball. With everyone in this organization on the hot seat including Fields himself, expect him to to continue to be aggressive with his legs. He has also been more effective in the passing game — since Week Four, Fields ranks seventh in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Dropback. And while the Vikings generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who average 5.65 or more YPP. Minnesota has played 14 of their last 18 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 7 straight Overs at home after winning four or five of their last six games. Even without the injured Kirk Cousins, the Vikings are generating 378.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in 26.0 PPG. At home, Minnesota is averaging 402.6 total YPG. Joshua Dobbs is making a strong case that he should be one of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the league. In his three starts in a Vikings uniform, he has completed 65.6% of his passes for 647 yards with four touchdown passes and only one interception. He is another mobile quarterback as well who has rushed for 131 in his last three games on a 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry average and another three touchdowns. The Bears allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.4% of their passes — and Minnesota has played 14 of their last 19 games in the second half of the season Over the Total against teams who allow opposing QBs to complete 61% or more of their passes. The Bears are completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Vikings have played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who are completing 64% of their passes.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Pick Released on Nov 27 at 04:53 pm
SERVICE BIO
Frank Sawyer offers unmatched handicapping analysis over a diverse array of sports for his Hollywood Sports clients. Frank combines his over twenty years of experience as a professional sports handicapper with the drive to outwork his competition. Why invest in a sports service? Frank answers that question with a proven methodology. His model for success starts by investing a significant amount of time analyzing each team in the sports he handicaps to serve as a foundation for that season. Frank then combines his team assessments with empirical situational handicapping angles along with the latest in cutting edge analytics to identify value in the betting line. Decades of handicapping experience along with his unrelenting focus are the qualities that Frank offers his clients. Frank produces extensive reports that detail his decisions. He does this for two reasons: (1) clients deserve to see the work that goes into a conclusion and (2) Frank’s attention to detail within these reports validates to his clients that he continues to work tirelessly to unearth winning angles. With that ambition in mind, Frank has expanded his areas of interest and scrutiny to include the English Premier League, the PGA Tour, the WNBA, and UFC/Boxing in recent years to go along with the major four sports of football, basketball, baseball, and hockey along with the Canadian Football League, Horse Racing, and World Cup Soccer that he has specialized in since he began Hollywood Sports in 1997. Frank believes long-term success involves not only continuing to dig deeper into the sports that he covers but also in expanding his horizons with new events that can provide additional tools in his handicapping toolbox with the goal of rewarding his clients for their loyalty over the years.
Frank uses a rating an 8*, 10*, 20*, 25* rating system that also serves a guide for money management: 10* plays warrant a standard bet (and 8* plays warrant 80% of a standard bet); 20* plays should see a doubling of that standard bet; 25* plays are Frank’s highest-rated play with the recommendation to invest 2.5 times the standard bet. For Frank’s futures reports or for events with odds such as PGA events or horse races, Frank usually offers three recommendations in his betting report: his Best Bet for the event; his Top Overlay Bet which presents his best value play relative to the odds for the event: and his Long Shot Bet for a big underdog offer value with its potential big payout. Frank’s signature play his “A-List* release which is reserved for rare and elite betting opportunities.
Follow Frank on Twitter: @FrankSawyerHS