THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This Par 71 event consists of 7243 yards with just three Par 5 holes. A Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course, distance off the tee will not help the 72 professionals this week. Driver usage is down 12-15% historically at this event. Davis Love III, a five-time winner of this tournament, oversaw a six-month process to replace all the grass, albeit with the same strains. New bunkers and trees have been added. New tee boxes at the Par-4 first, sixth, and 18th holes add 30 yards to the course. The fairways are lined by trees, so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. The overseeded Bermudagrass rough is only 1 1/4 inches high. Precision off the tee to set up approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. The pros will contend with 54 bunkers and water that impacts all 18 holes. The greens consist of Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa Trivialis that will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. This is the fifth of eight signature events on the PGA Tour this season, with a heightened purse for the 82 professionals competing this week.
 
LONG SHOT: Viktor Hovland (+3400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hovland (7014) versus Jake Knapp (7013) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 9:55 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Viktor Hovland, who is listed at +3400 at DraftKings to win the RBC Heritage. After struggling early in the year, Hovland is rounding into great form. His tie for 18th place at the Masters was his third top-18 finish in his last four PGA events. He led the field by gaining +3.88 Shots-Gained: Approach the Green versus the field per round. His driving is trending in the right direction — and his irons have been on point all season. Hovland ranks 19th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee to Green. He leads the field this week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and in Proximity to the Hole in his last 50 rounds. And while his short game off the greens has been the biggest liability in his career, he is much better when chipping on short grass like at Harbour Town rather than dealing with deeper rough. Hovland has two top 25 finishes in his three starts at this event. He has gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and Shots-Gained: Off the Tee in all three of his appearances here. 

Hovland is linked with Jake Knapp in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Knapp comes off a tie for 11th place at the Masters last week — he has finished 11th or better in seven of his eight PGA Tour events in 2026. He is enjoying a career year — but his course does not accentuate his skill set. Knapp is a great putter and is long off the tee. He ranks second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. The problem this week is that the small greens take away from his taking advantage of those skills versus his competitors. He ranks sixth in Driver Distance — but length off the tee is not as important as shot shaping and setting up the approach shot to reach the greens in regulation. Knapp ranks only 69th in Driver Accuracy — and he ranks only 41st in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. If Knapp misses the green, he will have to rely on his Around the Green game, which ranks only 66th on the tour in that category. Knapp has played this course as a professional only once in 2024, when he finished in 62nd place. Take Hovland (7014) versus Knapp (7013) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This Par 71 event consists of 7243 yards with just three Par 5 holes. A Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course, distance off the tee will not help the 72 professionals this week. Driver usage is down 12-15% historically at this event. Davis Love III, a five-time winner of this tournament, oversaw a six-month process to replace all the grass, albeit with the same strains. New bunkers and trees have been added. New tee boxes at the Par-4 first, sixth, and 18th holes add 30 yards to the course. The fairways are lined by trees, so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. The overseeded Bermudagrass rough is only 1 1/4 inches high. Precision off the tee to set up approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. The pros will contend with 54 bunkers and water that impacts all 18 holes. The greens consist of Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa Trivialis that will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. This is the fifth of eight signature events on the PGA Tour this season, with a heightened purse for the 82 professionals competing this week.
 
TOP OVERLAY BET: Tommy Fleetwood (+1850 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fleetwood (7147) versus Sam Burns (7148) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:40 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds to win the RBC Heritage is on Tommy Fleetwood, who is listed at +1850 odds at DraftKings. Fleetwood settled for a tie for 33rd place at the Masters last week, which was his second-worst result in his six PGA Tour events. Expect him to bounce back this week in a course that fits his skill set, since it is a less-than-driver track. Fleetwood remains in great form this year. He registered his fifth top ten finish in his seven PGA Tour events this season with a tie for tenth place two weeks ago at the Valero Texas Open. He removed the albatross from his PGA Tour career by winning the Tour Championship last August. Of course, Fleetwood has eight victories on the DP Tour — including the DP World India Tour in October — so closing the deal on the PGA Tour was considered just a matter of time. Since his return to the PGA Tour in February, he has been playing with as much confidence as he has in the United States in his career. He debuted on the PGA Tour with a tie for fourth place at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It was his fourth top-four or better finish worldwide since winning the PGA Tour Championship in Atlanta. He followed that up with a tie for seventh place at the PGA The Genesis Invitational. At THE PLAYERS Championship last month, he finished in a tie for eighth place while leading the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. So far in 2026, he ranks fifth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and ranks second in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. That is a potent combination. His underlying metrics were outstanding last season. He ranks third on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and sixth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Fleetwood always has had the talent to be a top-five player in the world — he has previously finished in second place at the British Open (two top fours) and US Open (three top fives), along with a third-place result at the Masters and a tie for fifth place at the PGA Championship in his career. Putting has been an issue for him recently — but this is out of character for him. Last year, he ranked 20th in Shots-Gained: Putting. At Harbour Town, Fleetwood has four top 25 finishes, including a seventh-place result last year. 

Fleetwood is linked with Sam Burns in Round One head-to-head props. Burns comes off a tie for seventh place at the Masters last week. It was his second-best finish for 2026. Despite three top 15s at Harbour Town, this course is not a great fit for his skill set. Burns is one of the best putters in the world — but the small greens neutralize that advantage for him. And while Burns is long off the tee, accuracy can be an issue. His precision with his irons is the biggest weakness of his game. He ranks 87th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks 79th of 82 professionals in the field this week in Greens In Regulation. Burns chipping is also a liability. He ranks 145th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and he ranks 79th in the field Around the Green on short grass. Burns has missed the cut in three of his eight PGA events in 2026. Take Fleetwood (7147) versus Burns (7148) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This Par 71 event consists of 7243 yards with just three Par 5 holes. A Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course, distance off the tee will not help the 72 professionals this week. Driver usage is down 12-15% historically at this event. Davis Love III, a five-time winner of this tournament, oversaw a six-month process to replace all the grass, albeit with the same strains. New bunkers and trees have been added. New tee boxes at the Par-4 first, sixth, and 18th holes add 30 yards to the course. The fairways are lined by trees, so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. The overseeded Bermudagrass rough is only 1 1/4 inches high. Precision off the tee to set up approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. The pros will contend with 54 bunkers and water that impacts all 18 holes. The greens consist of Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa Trivialis that will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. This is the fifth of eight signature events on the PGA Tour this season, with a heightened purse for the 82 professionals competing this week.
 
BEST BET: Matt Fitzpatrick (+1650 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fitzpatrick (7150) versus Scottie Scheffler (7149) in Round One head-to-head props(and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:50 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA RBC Heritage is on Matt Fitzpatrick, who is listed at +1650 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. Fitzpatrick was our Best Bet last month when he won the Valspar Championship, which paid off at 15-1. I considered Fitzpatrick closely but passed on him last week at the Masters, where he settled with a tie for 18th place. He gained significant strokes versus the field at Augusta National in both Shots-Gained: Off the Tee and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Now he returns to a course he loves after playing frequently at Harbour Town as a child. We were also on Fitzpatrick when he gave away the championship at THE PLAYERS Championship. He had a lead late in Round Four of that event before Cameron Young birdied the 17th hole. Young then hit the longest drive on the 18th hole ever at TPC Sawgrass of 375 yards to put him in a great opportunity for a birdie. Fitzpatrick hit his drive into the rough. But Young missed his birdie putt — leaving Fitzpatrick with a 12-footer to force a playoff. But the Englishman missed the putt and had to settle for second place. Fitzpatrick has never been in better form when it comes to his driver and iron play. He has lost strokes versus the field in the Tee-to-Green metric just once since last June. He leads the PGA Tour in 2026 in both Ball-Striking and Proximity to the Hole. He ranks second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee to Green. He has also been good with his driver — but it is his improved iron play that has made the difference this year. His ranking of seventh on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green is a career high. The former US Open winner has made the cut in every professional event worldwide since last year’s Masters. He won the DP World Championship in the fall. His putter has sometimes held him back this season — but he ranked 30th in Shots-Gained: Putting last year, so this is likely just a temporary blip. There is a good case to be made that his struggles with his blade are simply a product of his struggles on the Poa Annua surfaces that dominate the west coast events. He is much better on Bermuda greens. He won this tournament in 2022 and has four top 15 finishes at Harbour Town in his career. I love an in-form Fitzpatrick — and we were on him in 2022 when he won the US Open.

Fitzpatrick is linked with Scottie Scheffler in Round One head-to-head props. Scheffler started slow at the Masters but kept grinding and almost caught Rory McIlroy before settling for second place. I don’t love fading Scheffler — but this is a Round One proposition, and he ranks just 87th on the tour in Round One Scoring 2026. After extolling all the physical and emotional energy in conducting his big comeback last weekend at Augusta, he may be due for a letdown in this opening round. It is a credit to his immense talent that he is still eking out good results despite being way out of form with his irons. He led the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year — but he has plummeted to 81st on the tour in that metric this year. He finished in a tie for 24th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then in a tie for 22nd place at THE PLAYERS Championship in his two professional events before the Masters. Take Fitzpatrick (7150) versus Scheffler (7149) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck — Frank.