FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 6/30:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Monday is with the Under the Total in the match between Al Hilal and Manchester City in the Round of 16 of the FIFA Club World Cup. Al Hilal (W1-D2-L0) had two clean sheets and gave up only goal in their three group stage matches. Their star goalkeeper Yassine Bounou has a 87% save percentage in this competition. The Blue Waves have kept at least two defenders between the ball and the goal in 87% of their opponent shot attempts. But Al Hilal has only scored three times in this competition — and none of their three matches saw more than two combined goals. New manager Simone Inzaghi has this group deploying the defensive tactics that helped get Inter Milan to the UEFA Champions League finals last month. Manchester City (W3-D0-L0) is playing better defense again now that Rodri is back from his ACL injury last September. The Sky Blues have two clean sheets and have surrendered only two goals in this competition. Just three of the 22 shot attempts they have given up were considered High-Value of at least 0.2 expected goals (xG). Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 16 of 23 (70%) Soccer run -- CA$HING their 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year on Paris Saint-Germain in their first-leg semifinals match and then their 25* Europa League Match of the Year on Tottenham in the finals of that event last month! Frank is on an 11 of 16 (69%) Soccer sides run — and he furthers his 14 of 20 (70%) Soccer Game of the Year/Month mark with his 25* FIFA Club World Cup Match of the Month for the Al Hilal-Manchester City goal-line winner on TBS-TV at 9:00 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Manchester City (238018) minus the goal-line versus Al Hilal (238017) in the Round of 16 of the FIFA Club World Cup. THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W3-D0-L0) swept their three matches in the group stage of this tournament with their 5-2 victory against Juventus on Thursday. Al Hilal (W1-D2-L0) claimed second place in Group H with their 2-0 victory against Pachuca on Thursday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man City was the most dominant side in the group stage of this event. They were the only club to win all three of their matches. Their 13 goals were the most of any team — and their +11 net goal differential was also the top of all in the competition. The Sky Blues underachieved this season by finishing third in the English Premier League and exited the Champions League in the Round of 16. But everything changed for manager Pep Guardiola’s side when reigning Ballon d’Or winner Rodri suffered a ruptured ACL that kept him out for almost the rest of the season. Without the star midfielder, the glue in the middle of the defense was gone. But now he is back on the pitch and playing at a high level — and the team made several impact transfers this year to bolster their defense. The team also has striker Erling Haaland back after an injury-prone season. Haaland scored in the Citizens dominate victory against Juventus who are consistently one of the best defensive sides in the world. Man City generated 3.92 expected Goals (xG) while avenging a loss to Juventus in the group stage of the Champions League. The rhythm and chemistry is back and looks as good as it has since the start of the 2024-25 season. Defensively, the Sky Blues have only given up two goals — and of the 22 shots they have conceded in their three matches, only three of them were High-Value shots with a 0.2 or higher xG. Just seven of those 22 shots even registered at 0.1 or higher xG — so a vast majority of the shots they are surrendering are of low quality. Guardiola’s possession tactics are wearing down their opponents. They lead the competition with a 92.8% pass completion rate — and they lead all teams with 337 progressive carries. Their constant pressure has resulted in 21 corner kicks including at least six in all three of their matches. They are riding a five-match winning streak in all competitions. Al Hilal is unbeaten in their last eight matches across all competitions — but their victory against Pachuca was their lone victory in this competition. This Saudi Arabia side is perhaps the crown jewel of the nation’s significant financial commitment to soccer. There are plenty of stars on this squad — but like MLS in the US, most of these players took the money as they entered the twilight of their careers. They have a world-class manager in Simone Inzaghi who took Inter Milan to the finals of the Champions League last month. He is emphasizing defensive tactics and scoring on the counter-attack. But those ambitions took a huge hit on Thursday when attacking midfielder Salem Al-Dawsari suffered a hamstring injury that will keep him out for six weeks. Not only will the Blue Waves miss his scoring prowess, but they will also be lacking in leadership not having their captain on the pitch. Al Hilal has only given up one goal in this competition with two clean sheets — but they have surrendered 4.3 xG. They have an impressive 1-1 draw against Real Madrid — but they surrendered 2.64 xG in that opening match and lost the xG battle by -0.78. While the Blue Waves have plenty of world-class professionals on the pitch (albeit in the second halves of their careers), their offensive threats lack clinical finishing skills. As a team, their shot accuracy rate is just 21.1%. Their striker Marcos Leonardo along with Al-Dawsari has only scored one goal on 3.3 xG — and that is probably more a reflection of their shot-making than bad luck (and now Dawsari is out). As a team, they rank 20th by only generating 0.11 Shots Per Possession — so not being accurate on these limited chances really hurts. They are only generating 1.3 High-Value shots (0.2 xG or higher) per match.

FINAL TAKE: This is Al Hilal’s just second match ever against an English Premier League side. They will want to grind out a low-scoring match — but if and when Man City scores, they will have to abandon that approach which should create more good scoring opportunities for the EPL giants. The Sky Blues have enjoyed a lead 89% of the time in this tournament. They are also very motivated to win this event after going not winning a trophy for the 2024-25 season. 25* FIFA Club World Cup Match of the Month with Manchester City (238018) minus the goal-line versus Al Hilal (238017). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (960) versus the Athletics (959) listing both starting pitchers Drew Rasmussen and Jacob Lopez. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (47-37) has lost two of their last three games after their 5-1 loss against Baltimore yesterday. The Athletics (34-52) have lost three of their last four games after their 12-5 loss in New York against the Yankees on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 5 straight games after losing their last game. They have also won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. They return home where they have won 9 of their last 13 games — and they have won 14 of their last 23 home games against teams with a losing record. Rasmussen gets the ball for them tonight as he looks to build on his 7-5 record along with a 2.45 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.16 ERA along with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.11 ERA along with a 1.00 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in five starts on the road. He should continue to have success against this slumping Athletics team that ranks 20th and 22nd on the road this month in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created. The Athletics have lost 12 of their last 19 games after giving up 10 or more runs in their last game. They have also lost 25 of their last 36 games on the road — and they have lost 16 of their last 23 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Lopez who has a 2-4 record along with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 43 innings of work including seven starts since he joined the rotation. He has already surrendered six home runs this season — and the extreme fly ball pitcher is vulnerable in this area as indicated by his xFIP which projects an ERA of 4.26 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.74 ERA along with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in 23 innings — but in his 20 innings on the road, he has a 4.50 ERA along with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .275.

FINAL TAKE: The Rays rank fifth in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 8* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (960) versus the Athletics (959) listing both starting pitchers Drew Rasmussen and Jacob Lopez. Best of luck for us — Frank.