Frank Sawyer is on a 20 of 27 (77%) NFL TOTALS TEAR with featured plays -- and he furthers his 14 of 19 (74%) NFL Game of the Month/Year Totals mark with his 25* NFC North Total of the Month for MNF!
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At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss at Detroit as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 21-20 loss at Denver as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago had a 98.2% win probability to beat the Lions with just 4:15 minutes left in the fourth quarter — but they then gave up two touchdowns in those final four minutes to blow that game. The bigger takeaway from that result is that this Bears team is better than their record. They have -3 net losses in their four games decided by one scoring possession. They are only getting outgained by -2.0 Yards-Per-Game which is the type of mark for a 5-6 or even 6-5 team. They have played four games without starting quarterback Justin Fields — and the third-year pro is playing better after a slow start to the season. He completed 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions against Detroit last week. Fields is playing for his professional future right now with Chicago in a position to take draft one of the top college quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. After staying in the pocket early in the season, Fields is using his legs more to gain yards — he rushed for 104 yards against the Lions on 18 carries. Fields was very productive last season when he was given the green light to run the ball. With everyone in this organization on the hot seat including Fields himself, expect him to continue to be aggressive with his legs. He has also been more effective in the passing game — since Week Four, Fields ranks seventh in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Dropback. The defense is playing better as of late as well — they have held their last three opponents to just 284.0 total YPG and only 22.7 PPG. In their last three games, the Bears are outgaining their opponents by +49.3 net YPG despite relying on rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent in two of those contests. Chicago has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 44 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spreads as the underdog. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after losing two of their last three games. Minnesota endured a -3 net turnover margin in their loss to the Broncos last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two of their last three games. The Vikings have held their last two opponents to just 65 and 46 rushing yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after not giving up more than 75 rushing yards in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago will be looking to avenge a 19-13 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point home underdog on October 15th. Despite Fields suffering the hand injury that kept him out for a month in that game, the Bears still outgained the Vikings by a 275-220 margin in yards fueled by a rushing attack that gained 162 yards by averaging 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss at Detroit as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 21-20 loss at Denver as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears are giving up 28.8 Points-Per-Game when on the road this season after the Lions scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the game to steal that victory. Chicago has played 7 straight Overs after a loss by six points or less in their last game. They have played 6 straight Overs on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 6 straight Overs on the road after losing three of their last 4 games. The Bears did get Justin Fields back under center last week and he played well by completing 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. Fields is playing for his professional future right now with Chicago in a position to take draft one of the top college quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. After staying in the pocket early in the season, Fields is using his legs more to gain yards — he rushed for 104 yards against the Lions on 18 carries. Fields was very productive last season when he was given the green light to run the ball. With everyone in this organization on the hot seat including Fields himself, expect him to to continue to be aggressive with his legs. He has also been more effective in the passing game — since Week Four, Fields ranks seventh in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Dropback. And while the Vikings generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who average 5.65 or more YPP. Minnesota has played 14 of their last 18 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 7 straight Overs at home after winning four or five of their last six games. Even without the injured Kirk Cousins, the Vikings are generating 378.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in 26.0 PPG. At home, Minnesota is averaging 402.6 total YPG. Joshua Dobbs is making a strong case that he should be one of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the league. In his three starts in a Vikings uniform, he has completed 65.6% of his passes for 647 yards with four touchdown passes and only one interception. He is another mobile quarterback as well who has rushed for 131 in his last three games on a 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry average and another three touchdowns. The Bears allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.4% of their passes — and Minnesota has played 14 of their last 19 games in the second half of the season Over the Total against teams who allow opposing QBs to complete 61% or more of their passes. The Bears are completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Vikings have played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who are completing 64% of their passes.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Frank Sawyer offers unmatched handicapping analysis over a diverse array of sports for his Hollywood Sports clients. Frank combines his over twenty years of experience as a professional sports handicapper with the drive to outwork his competition. Why invest in a sports service? Frank answers that question with a proven methodology. His model for success starts by investing a significant amount of time analyzing each team in the sports he handicaps to serve as a foundation for that season. Frank then combines his team assessments with empirical situational handicapping angles along with the latest in cutting edge analytics to identify value in the betting line. Decades of handicapping experience along with his unrelenting focus are the qualities that Frank offers his clients. Frank produces extensive reports that detail his decisions. He does this for two reasons: (1) clients deserve to see the work that goes into a conclusion and (2) Frank’s attention to detail within these reports validates to his clients that he continues to work tirelessly to unearth winning angles. With that ambition in mind, Frank has expanded his areas of interest and scrutiny to include the English Premier League, the PGA Tour, the WNBA, and UFC/Boxing in recent years to go along with the major four sports of football, basketball, baseball, and hockey along with the Canadian Football League, Horse Racing, and World Cup Soccer that he has specialized in since he began Hollywood Sports in 1997. Frank believes long-term success involves not only continuing to dig deeper into the sports that he covers but also in expanding his horizons with new events that can provide additional tools in his handicapping toolbox with the goal of rewarding his clients for their loyalty over the years.
Frank uses a rating an 8*, 10*, 20*, 25* rating system that also serves a guide for money management: 10* plays warrant a standard bet (and 8* plays warrant 80% of a standard bet); 20* plays should see a doubling of that standard bet; 25* plays are Frank’s highest-rated play with the recommendation to invest 2.5 times the standard bet. For Frank’s futures reports or for events with odds such as PGA events or horse races, Frank usually offers three recommendations in his betting report: his Best Bet for the event; his Top Overlay Bet which presents his best value play relative to the odds for the event: and his Long Shot Bet for a big underdog offer value with its potential big payout. Frank’s signature play his “A-List* release which is reserved for rare and elite betting opportunities.
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