At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (504) minus the points Indiana Pacers (503) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (79-20) had won two games in a row before their 111-110 upset loss at home to the Pacers as a 10-point underdog in the opening game of this series on Thursday. Indiana (62-36) has won seven of their last nine games after that triumph.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City had a 15-point lead with under 10 minutes to go — so it looked like we were cruising. But the Pacers have demonstrated that they should never be counted out. They were down nine points with under three minutes left before rallying to steal the victory. They had two victories earlier this season when they were trailing by seven points with less than a minute left in the game before somehow pulling the game. In the history of the NBA playoffs, teams trailing by seven or more points with less than a minute to go have a 3-1640 record — and two of those three wins were by Indiana this season. The Thunder have also demonstrated their style of play leaves them vulnerable to blow leads — so I do not make this endorsement lightly. But there are some areas where Oklahoma City should put up better numbers tonight. They only made 39.8% of their shots in Game One which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. Jalen Williams only hit 6 of his 19 shots from the field. Chet Holmgren was 2 of 9. The Thunder got out-rebounded by a 56-39 margin which suggests they were simply out-worked and out-hustled. Furthermore, while they forced 24 turnovers, they only scored 11 points off those Indiana mistakes. In their 11 opportunities to push for an offensive advantage off a forced turnover, they only scored at a 0.64 Points-Per-Possession rate. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home after an upset loss. They have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 49 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 40 games when laying 10 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games against teams from the Eastern Conference including 12 of those 15 games at home. Indiana played their best defensive game in their last seven contests by holding the Thunder to under 40% shooting. But the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after a narrow win by six points or less in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road after winning their last game by six points or less. The underdog has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 9 games between these two teams.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 opportunities for revenge including 13 of those 16 games played at home. 10* NBA Indiana-Oklahoma City ABC-TV Special with Oklahoma City Thunder (504) minus the points Indiana Pacers (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Spain (234013) minus the goal-line versus Portugal (234014) in the Finals of the UEFA Nations League. THE SITUATION: Spain (W6-D2-L0) reached the finals of the UEFA Nations League with their 5-4 victory against France on Thursday. Portugal (W6-D2-L0) advanced to the finals with a 2-1 win against Germany on Wednesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, the home of Bayern Munich.

REASONS TO TAKE SPAIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The two best national teams in the world right now are probably Spain and France — so I considered that the de-facto championship match on Thursday. La Roja is clicking on all cylinders right now. Since getting upset by a 2-0 score against Scotland in a Euro 2024 qualifying match in March of 2023, Spain is unbeaten in their last 21 matches with 16 victories over that stretch. They are a scoring machine as 17 of those 21 matches saw them score at least two goals. Scoring five goals against a French side loaded with good defensive talent was quite a statement. Lamine Yamal scored two of those goals — and as ridiculous as it may seem to suggest, the 17-year-old may already be the best player in the world. He took Barcelona to another level this year — and he appears to be improving by the match so far in 2025. La Roja is loaded with veteran talent — but it is their younger players like Pedri, Nico Williams, and Yamal that make this group so exciting. Manager Luis de la Fuente made a tactical change when taking over the national team after previously serving as the manager of the under-21 squad. While still embracing the tiki-taka possession foundation of previous Spanish national teams this century, he quickened the pace of the passing with more diversity and pace out wide. The speed in the starting XI with this trio of young stars thrives in the system. La Roja won the 2023 UEFA Nations League two years ago before winning the 2024 Euro last summer. Taking this event will continue their dominance as they look to the World Cup next summer. Taking on the German national team in Munich would have been a challenge — but Portugal made that concern null and void with their comeback victory on Wednesday. Frankly, that result may speak more to the decline of the German team over the last few years than it does about the strength of this Selecao side. On paper, the roster looks good — and there is exciting young talent. But one of several major criticisms of manager Roberto Martinez is his continued commitment to center the attack around the 40-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo. Admittedly, Ronaldo scored the game-winner on Wednesday. I think the squad would be better served by using Ronaldo as a super sub off the bench — as I concluded last summer in the 2024 Euro. Portugal showed little in that tournament. They had an easy group — and they beat Czechia and Türkiye. But they then got upset by Georgia in their final group stage match. They then needed penalty kicks to advance past Slovenia in the Round of 16 before losing to France in the quarterfinals. In the UEFA Nations League, they got another friendly quarterfinal draw against Denmark but still lost the first leg by a 1-0 score before winning the second match by a 5-2 score to advance. Their group stage matches in the Nations League in the fall after the Euro 2024 were against Scotland, Croatia, and Poland — all solid national teams but not possessing near the talent level of this Spanish side. The Selecao has registered only one clean sheet in their last nine Nations League matches since the fall of 2024 after the 2024 Euro. La Roja can be scored on as their aggressive style allows for counter-attacks — and they lack an elite box defender. But a Ronaldo-focused Portugal attack is simply not potent enough to keep up — especially with Manchester United attacking midfielder Bruno Fernandes out of form.

FINAL TAKE: Spain is unbeaten in their last ten UEFA Nations League on the road outside their home soil. They should score at least two goals against Portugal in regulation time and claim the championship without needing extra time. 25* UEFA Nations League Match of the Year with Spain (234013) minus the goal-line versus Portugal (234014). Best of luck for us — Frank.