At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (481) minus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (482). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) comes off a 14-4 campaign that ended with a 27-9 loss at home against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFL wildcard round of the playoffs. Chicago (0-0) finished 5-12 last season.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINT(S): I am of two minds when it comes to the Vikings: they were overrated last season and now probably underrated relative to preseason expectations. Minnesota went 14-3 in the regular season last year despite only outgaining their opponents by +11.5 net Yards-Per-Game. They took advantage of a soft schedule that featured the AFC South and the New York Jets — and they swept those five games. They went 11-0 against teams that did not make the playoffs, although seven of those victories were by just one scoring possession. It was a season reminiscent of head coach Kevin O’Connell’s first year when the Vikings went 13-4 before getting exposed at home against the New York Giants. This time, all four of Minnesota’s losses were against the Detroit Lions and the Los Angeles Rams — and after closing out their season by getting crushed by the Lions and Rams by a combined 58-10 margin in critical games that (a) decided the NFC North (and a first round bye in the playoffs and (b) were in the first round of the postseason, they got exposed for being soft. Credit O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah for not believing the hype three years ago in assuming they were closer to a Super Bowl than they were — a mistake the New York Giants made that offseason. And credit this brain trust again for making cold and realistic assessments regarding where the team is now. The nine sacks they surrendered to the Rams broke an NFL playoff record. They resisted the temptation to resign Sam Darnold, a quarterback I thought was overrated by the end of the season, in those crucial games against the Lions and Rams. They resisted the siren call of Aaron Rodgers, a disaster waiting to happen. Instead, they took advantage of the rookie contract of quarterback J.J. McCarthy and spent $300 million in free agency to get tougher on the line on both sides of the ball. Adofo-Mensah signed the Indianapolis Colts’ starting center, Ryan Kelly, and right guard, Ryan Kelly, and drafted Donovan Jackson from Ohio State in the first round to shore up the interior of their line. Left tackle Christian Darrisow is coming back from a torn ACL. If he can return to form, Minnesota could have an excellent offensive line with the stout Brian O’Neill at right tackle. The defense added veteran pass rushers Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave on the defensive line. Generating a pass rush without having defensive coordinator Brian Flores dial up blitzes at quite the league-leading 38.9% of opponent dropbacks will help the pass defense that tanked 28th in the NFL by allowing 242.0 passing Yards-Per-Game. The Vikings ranked second in defense, according to the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings last year. After tying for a league-most 33 takeaways, those impressive marks are probably not sustainable — but they could improve on the 335.4 total YPG they gave up last season, ranking 16th in the league. However, the key is McCarthy in what remains essentially his rookie season. I might have watched every snap McCarthy took under center for Michigan in his career. He is not a perfect prospect, and I think I have a good sense of what his challenges will be in becoming a good professional quarterback. But an entire book can be written about either uninformed or simply inaccurate assessments that continue to be made about him by the “professional” or cottage industry draft experts. The 22-year-old ran a 4.48-second time in the 40-yard dash at the combine. That’s fast, and I won’t comment on why many observers conclude his mobility is “average.” A pair of pundits, whom I have great respect for their insight on the NFL, made the hasty generalization that McCarthy was the beneficiary of the Wolverines’ great ground game that set him up for pass-action success. That’s simply not how the Michigan offense operated in his final season. Check the fan boards complaining about the lack of play-action with the hope that those plays would be unleashed in the Ohio State and then Alabama showdowns. In fact, too often McCarthy bailed the offense out on third-and-long with his arm or his legs after two successive running plays from a ground game that was not as effective as it was the year before. Lately, I have been hearing how mediocre he was in the fourth quarter at Michigan. What are you talking about, Cowherd? I don’t expect you to have watched the Illinois game in late November of his rookie season when he rallied a banged-up Wolverines offense to a second game-winning field goal to keep their undefeated season (and playoff hopes alive). But I do expect Cowherd to put down the cocktail and watch the semifinals in the College Football Playoff two years ago when McCarthy orchestrated a touchdown-tying drive in the two-minute drill against the Alabama defense to force overtime before leading Michigan to the game-winning touchdown in overtime. None of this is to say that McCarthy will have a great professional career — my concerns with him are rarely identified in the media I consume. But I’m kinda bullish on what McCarthy can do under O’Connell’s quarterback whispering guidance with weapons like J.J. Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson (and McCarthy knows how to use tight ends). For me, his comp is Patrick Mahomes, which I know is a bold statement. Here’s why. Like Mahomes, he has an instinctual ability to extend plays with his legs to get out of trouble, reset the pocket, and find an open receiver. No, I don’t expect him to throw left-handed passes. He was also trained by head coach Jim Harbaugh to resist using his legs to gain yards on earlier downs and only reach into that bag of tricks on money downs — something Mahomes has mastered. He also has Mahomes’ leadership skills. We know O’Connell likes him — and that is a good segue into my closing thoughts. The Vikings were 9-1 in games decided by one-scoring possession last year. That seems unsustainable. But at a certain point, when a team posts a 25-9 record in games decided by eight points or less, if you keep on betting on the Regression Gods to appear, you are going to go broke banking on the Gambler’s Fallacy. Like the Chiefs’ consistently winning close games, at a certain point, I think it is reflective of the coaching staff. O’Connell won the NFL Coach of the Year award last year — and I still think he is underrated. Granted, he has yet to win a playoff game. But as opposed to many head coaches in the league, he does not pretend his team is something that has not yet proven. I don’t think Minnesota is going 14-3 again, but I will not be surprised if they are a better team on the field on both sides of the ball. I am not expecting a banner night for McCarthy in his professional debut — especially on the road in a prime-time game. O’Connell is likely to implement a conservative game plan that leans on their ground game, good offensive line, and what should be a really good defense. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games away from home when favored. Minnesota has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games in September. The Bears started last season winning four of their first six games — and then the wheels fell off the proverbial wagon as they lost ten games in a row and finished the season with a 5-12 record. Third-year head coach Matt Eberflus fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron on November 12th. Passing game coordinator Thomas Brown was elevated to run the offense despite not having previous experience calling plays. When Eberflus was then fired after a Thanksgiving loss to Detroit, Brown’s new job responsibilities doubled by being named the interim head coach. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams barely had a chance given all this chaos. He played behind an offensive line that was last in the NFL by surrendering 68 sacks — and Pro Football Focus ranked that group as the worst unit in the league in pass blocking efficiency. In hindsight, Waldron was not the right mentor for Williams, despite having come from the Sean McVay coaching tree. Brown was overwhelmed. The passing game too often devolved into various screens or other quick passes designed primarily to protect their investment at quarterback. The assumption now is that Williams will get the best coaching possible now that the franchise hired the Lions’ wunderkind offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as their next head coach. I think the jury is still out on that question. Certainly, he is a good designer of plays and game plans. However, I worry that he can be too flashy at the expense of the best interests of the team. The play call asking wide receiver Jameson Williams to throw a surprise pass in the fourth quarter in their playoff loss against Washington demonstrated terrible judgment and a concerning predilection to rely on his genius play-calls to find success rather than putting his players in the best position to succeed. Detroit might win that game if Jared Goff executed that play rather than Williams predictably throwing an interception and keeping his team down two scoring possessions. Johnson certainly benefited from inheriting a smart, veteran quarterback in Goff, who had already played in a Super Bowl. But neither Johnson nor anyone on his offensive coaching staff has been directly involved in developing a young quarterback. His offensive coordinator is Declan Doyle, who is a protégé of Sean Payton. At least Doyle observed Payton’s work with Bo Nix as Denver’s tight ends coach. Just because Johnson draws up sweet plays does not mean he has the skills to mentor and oversee the improvement of a raw but inexperienced talent at quarterback. And we have no idea how his leadership skills will translate. He talks a big game, but there is a long list of cocky offensive coordinators whose schtick gets old very quickly when tasked with running a football team (Josh McDaniels comes to mind, and Chicago recently tried with this type with Matt Nagy). Now here comes Flores, who is not only very familiar with the second-year QB but also Johnson’s gimmicks as a play-caller. The Bears' defense may be without cornerback back, Jalen Johnson, who is listed as questionable with a groin injury -- that would be a big loss since he would have drawn the assignment to defend Jefferson.
FINAL TAKE: O’Connell has a big game-management coaching edge over Johnson in his NFL debut as a head coach — especially since Johnson is also calling the offensive plays. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against the Bears. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (481) minus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
