At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (311) and the Chicago Bears (312). THE SITUATION: New England (4-2) has won three games in a row after their 26-19 victory against the New York Jets as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Chicago (4-2) has won three of their last four games after their 31-23 win at Atlanta as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Caleb Williams returned at quarterback for the Bears team last week. While he completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, his mobility was limited as he only ran the ball for three yards, and he got sacked four times. He may not be 100% from the hamstring injury that kept him out for several games. Running back Kyle Monangi is out with a thumb injury. Chicago has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 6 straight Overs at home after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have played 5 straight Overs at home after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. New England is dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown are out with injuries. Tackle Morgan Moses is questionable but did take part in limited practice all week. The defense does have star cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who was a key difference maker for this unit when healthy last year. Even without having Gonzalez for each game this season, the Pats rank fourth in the NFL by giving up only 1.4 Points Per Drive. In head coach Mike Vrabel’s career, his teams have played 6 of their 9 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow divisional rival. His teams have also played 5 of their 8 games Under the Total for Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Despite head coach Ben Johnson’s reputation as an offensive guru, the Bears have played 7 of their 8 games at home Under the Total when favored in his tenure. 10* NFL Thursday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (311) and the Chicago Bears (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (311) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (312). THE SITUATION: New England (4-2) has won three games in a row after their 26-19 victory against the New York Jets as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Chicago (4-2) has won three of their last four games after their 31-23 win at Atlanta as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England started slow with two of their first three games with a difficult schedule that included Seattle and Jacksonville. They have since beaten Buffalo,  Las Vegas, and the Jets in their last three games. Like last season, quarterback Drake Maye has performed much better when not facing elite defenses (surprise!). In those three games, he has thrown 10 touchdown passes and only one interception — and he has thrown at least three touchdown passes in each of those games. Wide receiver A.J. Brown returned from injury last week — and after a subpar game last week, he should be in better sync for this game. Maye gets a mediocre (at best) Bears defense. Perhaps second-year defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has this unit playing better than last year when it was completely dependent on forcing turnovers. The Bears led the league in takeaways — but that is a dangerous way to live. Chicago has nine takeaways in their six games this season — and they have not forced a turnover in three of their contests, finishing 1-2 in those games. Last season, the Bears were 9-0 when forcing multiple turnovers but 3-7 in their other 10 games. Chicago is tied for last in the NFL by surrendering 6.0 Yards-Per-Play — and they rank second-to-last by giving up 7.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. Allen does have his defense blitz at the third-highest rate in the league — but they only rank 13th in Pressure Rate on the quarterback. When the opposing quarterback gets at least 2.5 seconds before getting pressured, Chicago is giving up 8.2 YPA. Maye’s mobility will help expose the Bears’ suspect secondary. He is only getting sacked on 12% of the pressures has faced this season, ranking eighth best. When facing a clean pocket, he is generating 9.0 YPA. New England is dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown are out with injuries. Tackle Morgan Moses is questionable but did take part in limited practice all week. Backup guard Matt Pryor played well last week in relief by giving up only one pressure from 24 dropbacks. This unit could also insert first-round draft pick Caleb Lomu into the mix. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels adjusted last week by deploying 13 personnel with three tight ends on a season-high 19% of their snaps. Expect more of this trendy formation as many teams have not constructed their defensive roster for this heavy offensive look. Chicago is giving up 13.9 YPA against formations using multiple tight ends, along with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. The defense has star cornerback Christian Gonzalez back, who was a key difference maker for this unit when healthy last year. Even without having Gonzalez for each game this season, the Pats rank fourth in the NFL by giving up only 1.4 Points Per Drive. Since head coach Mike Vrabel took over the team, New England has covered the point spread in 7 straight games after winning four of their last five games. They have covered all 6 of their games in October with Vrabel. Additionally, the Patriots have generated at least 38 yards in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 375 yards in three straight games. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a straight-up win since Ben Johnson became their head coach. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. And while the Bears enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. Caleb Williams returned at quarterback for this team last week. While he completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, his mobility was limited as he only ran the ball for three yards, and he got sacked four times. He may not be 100% from the hamstring injury that kept him out for several games. The Bears are dealing with injuries on both sides of the football. Running back Kyle Monangi is out with a thumb injury. On defense, outside linebacker T.J. Edwards is doubtful with a hamstring, and middle linebacker Jack Sanborn is out with a concussion. Defensive end Montez Sweat is still serving a suspension. Edwards and Sweat are two of the team’s best pass rushers. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their 13 home games under Johnson. 

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 8 home games when favored since Johnson became their head coach. Vrabel’s teams in his head coaching career going back to his tenure with Tennessee are 31-18-2 ATS in their 51 games as an underdog — and the Patriots are 5-1-1 ATS in their 7 games on the road as an underdog with Vrabel. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (311) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.