10-13-20 |
Bills v. Titans UNDER 53.5 |
|
16-42 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (4-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 30-23 win at Las Vegas as a 3-point favorite on October 4th. Tennessee (3-0) finally takes the field again after last playing on September 27th where they defeated the Vikings in Minnesota by a 31-30 score as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread win. Additionally, while Buffalo allowed 383 yards to the Raiders in their last game, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bills stay on the road where the Under is 20-8-1 in their last 29 games away from home. The Under is also 9-3-1 in Buffalo’s last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee defeated the Vikings in their last game despite allowing 464 yards in that game. The Titans have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Tennessee allowed 480 total yards in their previous game against Jacksonville — but head coach Mike Vrabel should get his defense to play better tonight. Not only have the Titans played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games but they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in two straight contests. I like the extended time that Vrabel and his staff have had to devise a scheme-specific against the Bills’ QB Josh Allen. But the Titans have issues on offense. While wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to play despite his injured knee, quarterback Ryan Tannehill will be without his other two starting wide receivers in Corey Davis and Adam Humphries who are both on the COVID list. The seventeen days since their last game along with just two practices since the Tennessee facilities opened up again on Saturday could hurt the efficiency of the Titans offense as they look to get back in-synch.
FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October while the Under is 5-2-1 in Buffalo’s last 8 games in October. 10* NFL Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-20 |
Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50 |
|
27-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 38-31 loss at Tampa Bay as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 35-29 victory in Detroit against the Lions as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers put up 31 points against a good Buccaneers defense despite only generating 324 total yards in that game. They have then played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after scoring at last 30 points in their last game. Led by rookie Justin Herbert, Los Angeles has generated at least 278 passing yards in three straight games — but they have then played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after passing for at least 275 yards in three straight games including playing five of these last six situations Under the Total. Herbert is lacking plenty of support in this game with offensive linemen Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga along with jack-of-all-trades running back Austin Ekeler out for tonight. And while Tom Brady torched the Chargers’ secondary missing Delvin Ingram for 369 passing yards in that game, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 35 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while the Saints raced out to a 28-14 halftime lead against the Lions, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. New Orleans returns home where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Quarterback Drew Brees is also dealing with a banged-up offensive line with injuries to Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk that leave them questionable for tonight. And while wide receiver Michael Thomas was questionable with the ankle that kept him out the previous two games, he was suspended for tonight’s game by the field after a physical altercation with a teammate.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total in October while the Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in October games. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-20 |
Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 54.5 |
|
26-27 |
Loss |
-103 |
4 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Seattle Seahawks (476). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-3) won their first game of the season last Sunday with their 31-23 upset win at Houston as a 3.5-point underdog. Seattle (4-0) remains unbeaten this season after they defeated Miami on the road last week by a 31-23 score as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Kirk Cousins has received his usual level of criticism during the losing streak — but he has led an offense that has scored 61 combined points over the last two games and that has reached the 30-point threshold in three of their four games this season. Justin Jefferson has emerged as a solid replacement for Stefon Diggs and a good complement to Adam Thielen — he has 11 receptions for 278 yards. Minnesota generated 410 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Vikings have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total. The problem for this Minnesota team has been the collapse of their defense that really needed a normal preseason with exhibition games to address the departures from last season. The Vikings are allowing 31.3 PPG. Seattle has played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have passed for at least 275 yards in all four of their games — after QB Russell Wilson completed 24 of his 34 passes last week of 360 yards — and the Seahawks have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. But the bigger concern is their defense that is allowing 476.8 total YPG. The Seahawks have allowed at least 312 passing yards in all four of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight games. Now Seattle returns home where the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Seahawks have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing in Seattle. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Seattle Seahawks (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-08-20 |
Bucs v. Bears UNDER 45 |
|
19-20 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Chicago Bears (302). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) has won three straight games with their 38-31 win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 7.5-point favorite. Chicago (3-1) lost their first game of the season on Sunday with their 19-11 loss at home to Indianapolis as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Chicago has also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring less than 15 points in their last contest. Quarterback Nick Foles struggled as the starter in this game — the Bears offense managed only 269 total yards in that game. The Chicago rushing attack did not help the offense’s cause as they managed only 28 rushing yards on 16 carries for a meager 1.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. But the Bears defense did play well by limiting the Colts to only 289 total yards. Chicago is 7th in the league by allowing only 20.2 PPG. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record overall — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog. Tampa Bay has won three straight games — and this is a franchise that has played a decisive 56 of their last 87 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. Injuries will likely slow down this team this week. Quarterback Tom Brady did not have his top four wide receivers available to practice on Tuesday. Chris Godwin and Justin Watson are now out for this game with Mike Evan a game-time decision and Scottie Miller likely to play despite being questionable. Tight end O.J. Howard was already lost for the season on Sunday with his Achilles’ injury. This leaves Brady without many weapons — and while he might have been able to manufacture offense with the players he knew very well back in his New England days, playing on a short week with a new cast of characters and a new offense presents a much different challenge. And while Brady has led the offense to average 30.0 PPG in their three-game winning streak, they have faced the Panthers, Broncos (without the injured Von Miller), and Chargers (without the injured Derwin James and Melvin Ingram) in those games. I expect the Bucs to lean heavily on their ground game with Ronald Jones leading the way along with their outstanding defense. Tampa Bay is 4th in the NFL by allowing only 312.0 total YPG — and they are 2nd in the league by holding their opponents to just 64.3 rushing YPG. The Buccaneers also have 14 sacks which are the 3rd most in the NFL — and they are 2nd in the league with eight takeaways. Tampa Bay has played 26 of their last 43 road games Under the Total when favored by up to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Bruce Arians has been an Over Machine in the league — especially during his time in Tampa Bay. But some of that credit/blame goes to Jameis Winston who was a turnover machine. Interestingly, in the seven games in Tampa Bay and Arizona has been the head coach for a Thursday night game, the game finished Under the Total 5 times. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Chicago Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Chicago Bears (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-20 |
Falcons v. Packers OVER 56.5 |
|
16-30 |
Loss |
-104 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (279) and the Green Bay Packers (280). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-3) will be playing with desperation tonight after losing their third straight game last Sunday by a 30-26 score despite being a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they upset New Orleans last Sunday night by a 37-30 score on the road as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Falcons defense is ravaged with injuries. The team is without Ricardo Allen, A.J. Terrell, Darqueze Dennard, and Keanu Neal. Atlanta’s pass defense is second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 350.3 passing YPG and the nine touchdown passes they have allowed are tied for last in the NFL. The Falcons have also allowed 15 passing plays of 20 or more yards which is tied for the second-most in the league. They allowed the Bears to gain 437 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Atlanta allowed the Cowboys to gain 570 yards against them two weeks ago in their 40-39 loss in Dallas — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 450 yards. The Falcons have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after giving up at least 30 points in their last contest. Atlanta is moving the ball on offense — they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 419.0 total YPG. Matt Ryan is 3rd in the NFL with 961 passing yards this season — and he has seven touchdown passes to just two interceptions. The Falcons go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. Green Bay has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win. And while they allowed the Saints to gain 397 yards last week, they have then played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This Packers defense that is last in the NFL by allowing 6.6 Yards-Per-Play. Opposing quarterbacks have racked up a Passer Rating of 113.4 which is the 3rd highest in the league. Green Bay is also allowing opposing rushers to average 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Packers return home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5. Green Bay has also played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Even without his top two wide receivers, Davante Adams and Allan Lazard, who are out with injuries tonight, Aaron Rodgers should be able to move the ball supported by a rushing attack that is averaging 177 rushing YPG. He completed passes to eight different receivers last week — and he is completing 67% of his passes. Expect a shootout tonight. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (279) and the Green Bay Packers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-20 |
Eagles v. 49ers OVER 45 |
Top |
25-20 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (277) and the San Francisco 49ers (278). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-2-1) enters this game coming off a 23-23 tie with Cincinnati where they were 5.5-point favorites. San Francisco (2-1) returns home after winning their two games in the Meadowlands which concluded with their 36-9 win against the Giants last week.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Much has been made of the struggles Carson Wentz is experiencing. He has the lowest Passer Rating of all qualifying quarterbacks in the league. He is completing only 59.8% of his passes which is just 28th of qualifying NFL quarterbacks. He is working behind a depleted offensive line riddled with injuries. Yet despite all this, the Eagles did generate 381 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for Wentz is the Miles Sanders has been upgraded to probable to offer him a credible rushing threat that should take some of the pressure off him. The running back has generated 190 rushing yards over his last two games with a crisp 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry average. Last week’s game finished Under the Total —and the Eagles have played 6 straight road games Over the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. And while Philly has yet to cover the point spread this season, they have then played 7 straight games away from home Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Philly did hold the Bengals to just 48 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total if they did not allow more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Eagles have played a decisive 41 of their last 61 games on the road Over the Total — and this tightens to them playing 18 of their last 23 road games Over the Total when they are the underdog. San Francisco has played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a win by at least three touchdowns. The 49ers have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Niners held the Jets and the Giants to only 3 and 6 points in the first half in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. San Francisco is dealing with a long list of injuries — Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford along with cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and Akhello Witherspoon are all out for this game. But the 49ers are getting healthy on offense with tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Deebo Samuel upgraded to probable for this game. QB Jimmy Garoppolo remains out with his ankle injury but backup Nick Mullens has proven himself to be more than capable of operating Kyle Shanahan’s offense at a highly proficient rate. Mullens completed 25 of 36 passes last week for 343 yards without all team’s offensive weapons. The Niners generated 420 yards of offense in that game — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. San Francisco returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 9-3-1 in the 49ers’ last 13 games against fellow NFC opponents — and the Over is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games when favored. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (277) and the San Francisco 49ers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-20 |
Broncos v. Jets UNDER 41.5 |
Top |
37-28 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (101) and the New York Jets (102). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-3) is winless so far this season with their 28-10 loss at home to Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 6-point underdog. New York (0-3) has also lost their first three games this season after their 36-7 loss at Indianapolis on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And with their game with the Buccaneers falling below the 42 point total, they have then played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. The Denver offense was a work in progress even before being hit hard by the injury bug. Quarterback Drew Lock is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Jeff Driskel led an offense that generated only 226 yards last week. He was relieved by Brett Rypien in that game — and after the former undrafted QB out of Boise State completed 8 of 9 passes for 53 yards (and an interception in the end zone), head coach Vic Fangio named him the starter for this game despite it being played on a short week. Wide receiver Cortland Sutton is on the IR with an ACL injury while running back Phillip Lindsay is questionable with his injury. The defense is also riddled with a long list of injuries with Von Miller’s ankle injury that put him on IR being the most significant — but they did receive good news this week with cornerback Bryce Callahan, strong safety Kareem Jackson, and nose tackle Shelby Harris all upgraded to probable and expected to start tonight. The Broncos have allowed 17 and 23 points in the first half of their first two games — but they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing at least 17 points in the first half in two straight games. Denver did hold the Buccaneers to just 68 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. And while the Broncos surrendered 353 yards overall to Tampa Bay, the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Denver goes back on the road where the Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 games. New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 35 points in their last contest. And while the Jets allowed the Colts to gain 353 yards last week, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. New York managed only 260 yards of offense last week with third-year quarterback Sam Darnold struggling under Adam Gase’s offense. The Jets are scoring only 12.3 PPG this season while averaging 263.7 total YPG. Injuries have not helped Darnold’s cause with running back Le’Veon Bell and rookie wide receiver Denzel Mims both on Injured Reserve and wide receiver Breshard Perriman out with a shoulder injury. Mims and Perriman were new additions this season to jumpstart the Jets’ offense that was 29th in the league by averaging 194.4 passing YPG and totaling just 17.2 PPG which was second-to-last in the NFL.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 6 straight games Under the Total when hosting an AFC opponent — and Denver has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against fellow teams from the AFC. While the Total is low, this is one of those games where one (or both) of these teams may not reach double-digits. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (101) and the New York Jets (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-20 |
Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 55.5 |
|
34-20 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (489) and the Baltimore Ravens (490). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-0) rallied from a 17-6 deficit in the 3rd quarter last week to defeat the Chargers in Los Angeles in overtime by a 23-20 score as an 8.5-point favorite. Baltimore (2-0) enters this showdown coming off a 33-16 win at Houston last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win after by at least two touchdowns. The Ravens lead the league in scoring defense by allowing just 24 points this season with their 38-6 win over Cleveland in Week One. Baltimore has played 11 of their 13 games Under the Total after two straight double-digit wins — and they have played 33 of their last 49 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. The Ravens have also played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after two straight wins where they covered the point spread as the favorite. Now Baltimore returns home to M&T Bank Stadium where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Ravens have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total when favored. The Baltimore strategy for success tonight will be running the football to burn time off the clock and to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. The Ravens rushed for 230 yards last week against the Texans — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Kansas City surrendered 479 yards last week against the Chargers with 183 of those yards on the ground. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played a whopping 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, Kansas City has played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The public is in love with the Over tonight — and that is creating more value on the under with every half point that the market bets the number up. What is underappreciated is how well the defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuola has done to limit Lamar Jackson. Jackson only had 46 rushing yards in last year’s 33-28 victory for the Chiefs which is the 4th lowest in his career. The benefit of having Tyrann Mathieu allows Spags to both use him as a spy for Jackson running out the backfield as well as a very good defender against tight end Mark Andrews. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (489) and the Baltimore Ravens (490). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-20 |
Packers v. Saints OVER 52 |
|
37-30 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (487) and the New Orleans Saints (488). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-0) has started the season unbeaten after defeating the Lions at home in Lambeau Field last week by a 42-21 score as a 7-point favorite. New Orleans (1-1) looks to rebound from their 34-24 upset loss in Las Vegas against the Raiders on Monday as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers’ offense is clicking on all cylinders as they have scored a whopping 85 points in their first two games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers may be playing behind the best offensive line in his career this season. Not only has he suffered just one sack this season but the Green Bay running game is averaging 208 rushing YPG on 6.2 yards-per-carry. The Packers have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a win by at least 14 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by at least 10 points. Green Bay generated 488 total yards against the Lions — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after gaining at least 40 yards in their last game. The Packers outrushed Detroit by 170 net yards on Sunday — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after outrushing their last opponent by at least 150 yards. Now Green Bay goes back on the road where they have played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total. New Orleans has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Saints gained 424 yards in the losing effort — and they have played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Now New Orleans returns home where the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Saints also allowed 377 yards last week to the Raiders — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. And in their last 14 games in September, New Orleans has played 10 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: While both these teams may be without important weapons in wide receivers Michael Thomas and Devante Adams, both offenses move the ball quite well without either player last week. These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 meetings Over the Total. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (487) and the New Orleans Saints (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-24-20 |
Dolphins v. Jaguars UNDER 49 |
|
31-13 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (1-1) enters this game coming off a 33-30 loss at Tennessee as a 7-point underdog. Miami (0-2) is winless in their first two games of the season after their 31-28 loss at home to Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss to a divisional rival. Additionally, Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Quarterback Gardner Minshew comes off a big game where he completed 30 of 45 passes for 339 yards — but the Jags have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where they passed for at least 300 yards. Minshew may be without one of his top weapons in wide receiver D.J. Chark who is questionable with a chest injury. Now Jacksonville returns home where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored. Miami needs to tighten things up on defense after allowing 524 total yards last week against the Bills. But the Dolphins have still played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in September. Additionally, the Under is 8-2-1 in Miami’s last 11 appearances on Thursday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have played 26 of their last 36 games on the road Under the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. Jacksonville has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the number installed in the 42.5 to 49 point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-20 |
Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49 |
Top |
24-34 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-0) enters this game coming off a 34-23 win at home to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Las Vegas (1-0) comes off a 34-30 win at Carolina where they were 3-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The final score for the Saints was a bit deceiving with one of their touchdowns being score from a 36-yard interception. New Orleans had a +3 net turnover margin — but they managed to generate only 271 yards of offense. The Saints averaged just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play against the Buccaneers which was the 2nd lowest average of all teams in Week One. Quarterback Drew Brees completed just 18 of his 30 passes for only 160 yards. His adjusted completion percentage was just 24th best in the league last week after missing a handful of open receivers. Maybe it was just one bad week without the benefit of preseason — or maybe Father Time is beginning to catch up with the 41-year old. Brees will not have the benefit of his favorite target in Michael Thomas who is out with an ankle injury. The Saints did add wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason — and I expect them to use running back Alvin Kamara as a slot receiver in passing downs — but this is an offensive not at full strength without their best weapon in the passing attack. Thomas caught a whopping 149 catches last year for 1725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. As it is, New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win over an NFC South rival. Additionally, the Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that went Over the Total. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as a favorite of no more than 7 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the total set at 45.5 or higher. And in their last 5 second games to a new season, the Saints have played 4 of these games Under the Total. The Under is 10-4-1 in Las Vegas’ last 15 games after a straight-up win. The Raiders have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined goals were scored. Las Vegas did not score more than 24 points in each of their final games last season — and they averaged just 15 PPG over that stretch. QB Derek Carr lacked a credible deep threat all season — that was supposed to be the role Antonio Brown would have assumed. The team drafted Alabama speedster Henry Ruggs with their 1st round pick to address this need — and he was targeted five times with three catches for 55 yards in the first half. Ruggs is listed as questionable to play but he will take the field tonight — however, it is unclear how effective he will be as he nurses the knee injury that kept home out of the second half last week. Las Vegas will rely on running back Josh Jacobs for this game — but the Saints have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in forty-four straight games. The Raiders did allow 260 passing yards last week — but the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas had played their last four appearances representing Oakland Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. Gruden’s teams have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing in the first two weeks of the season including playing four of five Unders as the coach of the Raiders. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-20 |
Patriots v. Seahawks UNDER 46 |
|
30-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (287) and the Seattle Seahawks (288). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 21-11 win over Miami as a 7-point favorite. Seattle (1-0) also won their debut to the 2020 season with their 38-25 victory over Atlanta where they closed as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in September after last week’s game. don’t sleep on the New England defense despite losing a handful of players who opted-out this season. The Patriots’ secondary remains elite led by cornerback Stephon Gilmour. The front-seven is a work-in-progress which is why controlling possession is so important. New England limited the Dolphins to just 169 yards of offense last week while averaging a mere 4.6 Yards-Per-Play — and they forced three turnovers. Since the start of 2019, the Patriots lead the NFL in these defensive categories still: allowing 13.9 PPG; allowing only 275.5 total YPG; 28 interceptions; opponent Passer Rating of 61.7. New England has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The Patriots also limited Miami to just 87 rushing yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. The new-look Cam Newton run offense was clicking on all cylinders last week as they generated 357 total yards of offense on the strength of 202 rushing yards on 42 rushing attempts. The analytics folks tend to dismiss time of possession — perhaps that is one of the reasons they tend to replicate coin flips when making ATS prognostications? I assign plenty of value to the Patriots’ controlling the clock for 34:49 minutes last week. Not only does that keep the opposing offense off the field, but it keeps your own defense relatively fresh with one or two fewer defensive possessions they have to play in the game. That makes a big deal when coaching-up younger players — and that is what New England needs with their make-shift front seven. The Patriots have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. New England has also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on the road. Seattle has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in September even after last week’s high-scoring game — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Seahawks have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they allowed 434 passing yards to the Falcons last week, they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: While New England seems committed to their ground game, don’t be surprised if Seattle avoids the outstanding Patriots’ secondary by getting back to their rushing attack to take advantage of the suspect New England front seven. Expect this to be a quick game with the running clock with what should see perhaps sixty rushing attempts between both teams. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (287) and the Seattle Seahawks (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-17-20 |
Bengals v. Browns UNDER 44 |
Top |
30-35 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
09-14-20 |
Titans v. Broncos OVER 40.5 |
Top |
16-14 |
Loss |
-114 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (481) and the Denver Broncos (482). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (0-0) takes the field again after a 9-7 campaign that ended by losing at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. Denver (0-0) comes off a 7-9 season last year.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans will have revenge on their mind after getting shutout in Denver back on October 13th by a 16-0 score. That was the final straw for head coach Mike Vrabel who benched starting quarterback Marcus Mariota in that game. Ryan Tannehill came on to complete 13 of 16 passes in relief with that effort being enough to earn him the starting job that he then ran away with for the rest of the season. Tennessee won nine of their last thirteen games while leading the team one win away from the Super Bowl. Tannehill completed 67.9% of his passes while throwing 27 touchdown passes to just six interceptions. Tannehill opened up the vertical threats for this team as he completed 9.0 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. But what defined success for Tannehill was his ability to operate in play-action. Tannehill sells the fake hand-off with the Titans using the play-action decoy to Derrick Henry (and the other running backs) 77.1% of the time with Tannehill under center. Tannehill generated a Passer Rating of 140.6 in the playoffs in play-action which was the best of all quarterbacks in the postseason. He will face a depleted Broncos’ pass rush that will be without Von Miller who went on IR with an ankle injury. Bradley Chubb will be on a pitch count as well with him dealing with an injured ACL. The lack of a pass rush will likely have Tannehill licking his chops. He completed 72.9% of his passes with a clean pocket with 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions while averaging 9.63 YPA — and his 122.6 Passer Rating from a clean pocket led the NFL last season. Tennessee should come out very motivated to avenge being shutout last year — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the opening week of a new season. This team averaged 24.1 PPG last season — and they also averaged 24.9 PPG on the road last season along with posting a 350.8 total YPG mark. The Titans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. Furthermore, Tennessee has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when laying the points. Denver has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total in September — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the opening week of a new season. The Broncos are excited about the potential of their offense this season in the second season of quarterback Drew Lock. The former Missouri Tiger won four of his five starts to end the season last year. The organization hired Pat Shurmer to be the offensive coordinator after he became available when he was let go as the New York Giants’ head coach. The team also surrounded Lock with more weapons by signing running back Melvin Gordon from the Chargers and drafting Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler. The Broncos need to improve their 18.8 PPG scoring average at home last season. Denver held their guests to just 17.9 PPG but that is a number that looks destined for regression given the attrition that the unit has endured. Not only is Miller out but they also lost defensive back Chris Harris, Jr. to a middling unit in production as they were just 14th against the pass and 15th against the run. Frankly, their defensive scoring average was somewhat the product of a defensive head coach in Vic Fangio who ran the ball to burn time off the clock to shorten the game and rest his defense. If and when the Broncos fall behind in this game, then Denver will have to abandon the run game.
FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 4 straight games Over the Total on Monday Night Football. Expect Tannehill to have a good game which will force the Broncos to lean on Lock to win this game — and that is a recipe for an Over with the Total set in the low-40s. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (481) and the Denver Broncos (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-20 |
Steelers v. Giants UNDER 45 |
|
26-16 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-0) comes off an 8-8 season last year. New York (0-0) looks to build off a 4-12 campaign last season.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers are optimistic that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will be rejuvenated coming off elbow surgery after an injury that caused him to miss fourteen games last year. Fingers are crossed for the 38-year old but, like with Tom Brady yesterday, perhaps he is another quarterback who would have benefitted from the five to eight offensive series that a few preseason games would have provided him. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in September. Head coach Mike Tomlin is likely to continue to lean on his outstanding defense especially when playing away from Heinz Field. The Steelers have played 39 of their last 52 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 22 of their last 27 road games Under the Total as the favorite. Pittsburgh was 5th in the league last year by allowing just 18.9 PPG — and they ranked 3rd best in the NFL by allowing only 194.6 passing YPG. The Steelers dialed-up 54 sacks last season while forcing 38 takeaways which is not good news for the second-year quarterback they will be facing. Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the number set in 42.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them playing seven straight Unders when playing on the road with the Total set in that range. New York is hopeful that Daniel Jones takes the next step at quarterback after his rookie campaign. His backers are encouraged by the three four-touchdown passing games he produced in the second half of the season. But remember that those contests were against Detroit, the NY Jets, and Washington with defenses that are far cries than what he will face tonight. He will be operating under a new system under rookie head coach Joe Judge who hired Jason Garrett as his offensive coordinator. Jones could use a full preseason to get comfortable with the Garrett game plan. The Giants also have a reshuffled offensive line after Nate Solder opted-out from playing this year. New York drafted Andrew Thomas in the first round while adding center Nick Gates and right tackle Cam Fleming — but there will be growing pains for this unit as they develop cohesion together. The offensive game plan will likely be to rely on star running back Saquon Barkley — but he averaged just 55.7 rushing YPG last year against top-ten defenses as compared to his 90.5 rushing YPG average against the rest of the NFL.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total in the opening two weeks of the season. While those four games were under the Pat Shurmer regime, Judge comes from New England so I do not expect him to suddenly roll out the Air Raid offense in this situation. Expect the Giants to try to run the ball with Barkley as long as they can stay competitive in this game. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-13-20 |
Cowboys v. Rams UNDER 52 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) begins the new era of head coach Mike McCarthy tonight as he replaces Jason Garrett after his ten-year tenure ended with the Cowboys’ 8-8 finish last season. Los Angeles (0-0) looks to get back to the playoffs after missing the postseason last year despite their 9-7 record.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: McCarthy kept Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator while deferring to him to continue to call plays for quarterback Dak Prescott. But the stout offensive line that Prescott has enjoyed over the years is not as strong. Five-time Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick returned in the offseason while their elite right tackle, La’El Collins, is beginning the year on the IR with a hip injury. The depth of the Cowboys will now be tested with Joe Looney taking over at center after playing in just five snaps last season while the poorly graded Cameron Erving becomes their best option at right tackle. Red zone offense was a problem for the Dallas offense when they were playing on the road last season. They averaged 388.4 total YPG away from home but that only translated into 22.1 PPG. The Cowboys’ offense may also struggle without the benefit of the preseason to implement the new principles that McCarthy wants to bring to the offense. As it is, Dallas has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog (which they now are after the line movement earlier in the day) — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total when the underdog. Dallas does have a new defensive coordinator in Mike Nolan — and I think the veteran has a lot to offer the Cowboys. Dallas only allowed 20.4 PPG on the road last year along with just 322.6 total YPG. The Cowboys have also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Rams have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored — and this includes them playing four of their last five games Under the Total when favored at home. The LA defense improved significantly midseason after the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville. For the season, the Rams allowed only 339.6 total YPG. I have heard some pundits comment about how tough head coach Sean McVay is early in the season after the benefit of the offseason to devise new plays and offensive strategies. Yet Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 51 games Under the Total in the opening two weeks of the season including playing three of their last four opening two games Under the Total in the last two seasons. The Rams have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. LA will have the benefit of surprise on defense with new defensive coordinator Joe Staley calling the defense — and Dallas does not have the benefit of even vanilla game-tape from exhibition games to get a sense of what changes he will implement.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 15th where the Cowboys pulled a 44-21 upset win as a 1-point underdog with the final score flying over the 48 point total. Dallas ran the ball 36 times for 248 yards and three touchdowns — but their two highest-graded offensive linemen from that game were Fredericks and Collins who will not be on the field tonight. The Cowboys will likely stick with their commitment to the run with Ezekiel Elliott but expect this rematch to be a much lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-02-20 |
49ers v. Chiefs OVER 53.5 |
Top |
20-31 |
Loss |
-106 |
93 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-3) joined them in the Super Bowl later that day with their 37-20 victory over Green Bay as an 8-point favorite. Kansas City (14-4) has won eight straight games with their 35-24 victory over Tennessee on January 19th in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 7.5-point favorite. The Super Bowl will be played on a neutral field in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The adage is that matchups make prizefights — and I say that matchups also go a long way in assessing whether a game will go Over or Under the Total. Both these teams had Top-Eight scoring offenses and defenses in the regular season. I think it will be the offenses that have the edge for both teams in what should push into a higher scoring game. The Chiefs enter the Super Bowl averaging 283 passing YPG — and the 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 230 passing YPG. Kansas City also allows their opponents to average 351.7 total YPG in their eighteen games this season — and San Francisco has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow at least 350 YPG. The weakness of this Chiefs defense is against the run — even after their seeming improvement over the last eight games of the season, Kansas City ranked 27th in the NFL over that span in Expected Points Allowed per rushing attempt faced. The Chiefs allowed 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry this season — and the Niners have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allowed their opponents to average 4.5 or more YPC. San Francisco has scored 64 combined points in their two playoff games — and they have then played 30 of their last 45 games on the road Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. The 49ers have also played 13 of their last 16 games on the road Over the Total when playing with two weeks of rest and preparation. Kansas City has scored at least 26 points in four straight games — and they have played 6 straight games on the road Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in four straight games. And while the Chiefs have scored 21 and 28 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least 17 points in the first half in two straight contests. Kansas City has won their last five games all by at least 10 points — and they have then played 6 straight games Over the Total after winning at least two straight games by at least 10 points. They are averaging 29.8 PPG when accounting for their two playoff games — but the 49ers best that with their 30.2 PPG scoring average after their two playoff victories. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams who score at least 24 PPG. And while the Niners average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack, Kansas City has played 7 straight games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are winning at least 75% of their games. San Francisco has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The winner of this game likely scores at least 30 points with both teams likely score at least 24 points one way or another. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank (and to get my Super Bowl Props Betting Report for my top three prop bets, follow me on Twitter and contact me for this Report as a free courtesy: @FrankSawyer_HS ).
|
01-19-20 |
Packers v. 49ers OVER 45 |
|
20-37 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (311) and the San Francisco 49ers (312). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (14-3) has won six straight games with their 28-23 win over Seattle last week as a 4.5-point favorite. San Francisco (14-3) has won three straight games after they dispatched of Minnesota last week by a 27-10 score as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a victory at home. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Green Bay has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after winning at least six straight games. The Packers surrendered 375 yards to the Seahawks in the victory — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has a mediocre defense that has been protected by their commitment to running the football. The Packers rank 18th in the NFL by allowing 352.8 total YPG while the analytics used by Football Outsiders rank their defense 15th in the league in DVOA. Green Bay now goes on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. They also have played 5 straight games Over the Total in January. The Packers have seen an uptick in their productivity on offense as of late as they have scored 24.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging 386.3 total YPG. San Francisco has scored 29.0 PPG over their last three games which is right in line with their 29.9 PPG scoring average this season which is 2nd best in the league. The 49ers raise that mark to 31.8 PPG in their nine games at home this season. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total. They also have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. And in their last 10 games against teams from the NFC, the Over is 7-2-1 for the Niners.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the 49ers’ 37-8 victory over the Packers by a 37-8 score. Green Bay could not stop the San Francisco offense in that game with the Niners averaging 7.5 Yards-Per-Play. But Aaron Rodgers may have played his worst game of the season as eh managed only 104 passing yards with the Packers averaging a mere 2.8 YPP. Look for Green Bay’s offense to be much more effective in this rematch in what should be a higher scoring game. 10* NFL Green Bay-San Francisco Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-20 |
Titans v. Chiefs OVER 51 |
Top |
24-35 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (11-7) comes off a 28-12 upset win at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog. Kansas City (13-4) rallied from a 24-0 deficit last Sunday to crush Houston by a 51-31 score.
THE SITUATION: The Titans have won three straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Tennessee has not allowed more than 14 points in those three victories — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in three straight games. The Titans defeating the Ravens last week despite surrounding 530 yards of offense. Tennessee allowed 6.02 Yards-Per-Play to Baltimore while giving up 345 passing yards. The Titans have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after giving up at least 6.0 YPP. Now the Titans go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Tennessee defense is perhaps not as good as advertised as they rank 21st in the NFL by allowing 359.5 total YPG. They also surrender 255.0 passing YPG which is 24th in the league — and that is not a good sign when facing this Chiefs offense led by Patrick Mahomes which is 5th in the NFL by averaging 281.1 passing YPG. Kansas City has won seven straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Chiefs generated 434 yards against the Texans last week — and they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in all seven of their victories on their hot streak — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games while covering those games as the favorite. The Chiefs host this game where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and thy have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Chiefs have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Chiefs allow 350 YPG this season, the Titans have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against opponents who allow at least 350 YPG. Look for Kansas City to exceed the 29.4 PPG scoring average they manage when playing at home with Tennessee playing catch-up and scoring in the 20s. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-20 |
Seahawks v. Packers OVER 45 |
Top |
23-28 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (307) and the Green Bay Packers (308). THE SITUATION: Seattle (12-5) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 17-9 victory at Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog. Green Bay (13-3) takes the field again on a five-game winning streak after their 23-20 win at Detroit back on December 29th as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Of course, the outcome of their game last week changes dramatically if Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz does not get concussed by Jadeveon Clowney early in that contest. Wentz threw only four passes for 3 yards before that late hit before giving way to the game but overmatched Josh McCown who began the season coaching high school football. This Seattle defense is 26th in the NFL by allowing 381.6 total YPG. The Seahawks stay on the road for this game where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total. Seattle has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Over is 7-2-1 in the Seahawks’ last 10 games as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win on the road by a field goal or less. They have also played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total after winning five games in a row. The Packers went into the locker room trailing by a 17-3 score — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 3 points in the first half in their last game. They did end up gaining 432 yards in that game with Aaron Rodgers completing 27 of 55 passes for 323 yards. Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after passing for at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after attempting at least 50 passes in their last contest. The Under may be tempting for many bettors with the Packers having played four straight Unders. But Green Bay has played a decisive 52 of their last 83 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Unders.
FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. The Seahawks have seen the Over go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. A final word on the weather: the temperature will be in the mid-20s with snow possible in the second half of the game. These are two cold weather teams — with the Total just in the mid-20s, I don’t think the weather changes this game going over the number. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (307) and the Green Bay Packers (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-20 |
Texans v. Chiefs OVER 48.5 |
|
31-51 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-6) has won three of their last four contests with their 22-19 win over Buffalo in overtime last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Kansas City (12-4) ended the regular season winning six straight games with their 31-21 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Texans have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Houston generated 360 yards of offense against the Bills’ defense last week — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. But the Texans also surrendered 425 yards in that contest — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after giving up at least 350 yards in their last contest. Houston’s defense is below average as they allow 388.3 total YPG which is 28th in the league — and they have surrendered 442.3 total YPG over their last three contests. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they are allowing 410.2 total YPG. The Texans have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing two straight games at home. Kansas City has won its last three games by at least 10 points with them being favored in all three contests. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row by double-digits — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning and covering the point spread as the favorite in at least three straight contests. Kansas City got their ground game going against the Chargers by rushing for 162 yards — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has not had as spectacular a fantasy season this year — but he still leads a potent offense that is 5th in the NFL by scoring 28.2 PPG while leading a passing attack that is also 5th in the league by averaging 281.5 passing YPG (despite their dynamic wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, missing some games). The Chiefs are 5th in the NFL by averaging 28.2 PPG. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 PPG — and Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +6.0 PPG. Kansas City has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Houston-Kansas City CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-11-20 |
Titans v. Ravens OVER 47 |
Top |
28-12 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the Baltimore Ravens (304). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (10-7) has won their last two games after their 20-13 upset victory at New England as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. Baltimore (14-2) has won twelve games in a row with their 28-10 upset win at Pittsburgh to end the regular season as a 2-point underdog back on December 29th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Baltimore was an underdog in that game with the Steelers since they rested key players including quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens still scored four touchdowns with Robert Griffin III under center against a good Pittsburgh defense that needed a win along with a Titans loss to reach the playoffs. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. So here comes a rested Jackson along with Mark Ingram whose injured calf is improving late this week who lead an offense that leads the NFL by scoring 33.2 PPG while ranking 2nd in the league by averaging 407.6 total YPG. What makes this Ravens’ offense so difficult to stop is their ability to play in “13” personnel with one running back and three tight ends who can all catch the ball. While the formation helps a heavy rushing attack, all three of those tight ends can catch the ball while offering Jackson a huge target down the field. Jackson faces a Titans’ defense that ranks 24th in the NFL by allowing 255.0 passing YPG. Baltimore also boasts the NFL’s top rushing attack that averages 206.0 rushing YPG. The Ravens have rushed for at least 218 yards in three straight games — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight contests. What may score some bettors off the Over is the outstanding defense that Baltimore plays. They limited the Steelers to just 168 total yards on a mere 3.5 Yards-Per-Play average — but they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after not allowing their last opponent to average more than 3.5 YPP. And while the Ravens have allowed only 25 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Tennessee has played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total after an upset victory on the road as an underdog. Derrick Henry battered the Patriots last week as he led a ground game that generated 201 rushing yards — and the Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they are scoring 27.7 PPG while averaging 378.7 total YPG. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill only threw the ball 15 times last week in the win against the Patriots — but he should not be underestimated to move the football in the air in this contest. Since taking over as the starting quarterback in Week Seven, Tannehill led the NFL for the rest of the regular season by averaging 6.94 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — and he was tied for 2nd in touchdowns and 6th in QBR. The Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: While Tennessee head coach would love to slow this game down by running Henry and burning time off the clock, this strategy is neutralized if Baltimore races out to a big lead — and the Ravens are averaging 17.7 PPG in the first half this season. The Titans have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC — and the Ravens have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against fellow AFC foes. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the Baltimore Ravens (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-11-20 |
Vikings v. 49ers OVER 44 |
|
10-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-3) closed out the regular season winning their last two games after their 26-21 victory at Seattle for Sunday Night Football back on December 29th as a 3.5-point favorite. Minnesota (11-6) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 26-20 upset win in overtime at New Orleans as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after an upset victory. Minnesota has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a narrow victory by 6 points or less. The Vikings have allowed at least 20 points in three straight games so being competitive will likely require them scoring into the 20s as well in this game. Minnesota does average 26.4 PPG on the road while averaging 374.2 YPG in those nine contests. The Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. QB Kirk Cousins should certainly be bursting with confidence after leading his team to a playoff victory with a winning overtime touchdown drive that thwarted the Saints' ability to get Drew Brees back on the field. Now they face a Niners team that is outscoring their opponents by +10.5 PPG — and they have played 11 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +10.0 PPG. And while the 49ers average 7.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in their passing attack, Minnesota has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after eight games into the season against opponents that average at least 7.5 YPA. San Francisco generated 398 yards two weeks ago in their victory over the Seahawks — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while the 49ers have scored 60 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after they scored at least 25 points in two straight games. San Francisco has also played 23 of their last 36 games Over the Total after a bye week. The Niners did activate linebacker Kwon Alexander this week after he has been out with a chest injury. They had been holding their opponents to only 11 PPG in their first seven games before that injury — but they have allowed at least 25 points in six of their last nine games without him. It remains unclear how effective Alexander will be in his return with head coach Kyle Shanahan indicating that he will not be asked to embark in full-time duty for this game. San Francisco has allowed its last three opponents to score 27.0 PPG while averaging 344.3 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing at home — and the Over is also 11-5-1 in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 11 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points, San Francisco has played 8 of these games Over the Total. 10* NFL Minnesota-San Francisco NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-20 |
Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 46 |
|
17-9 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (147) and the Philadelphia Eagles (148). THE SITUATION: Seattle (11-5) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-21 loss at home to San Francisco as a 3.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (9-7) has won four straight games with their 34-17 win at New York against the Giants as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 52 of their last 74 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Philly is riddled with injuries at wide receiver and their offensive line — and they will be without their best linemen in Lane Johnson for this game along with guard Brandon Books who was put onto Injured Reserve earlier this week. The Eagles have resorted to sinking-and-dunking their way to manufacture yardage - but this should be a bit easier to prepare for in the playoffs given the structural weaknesses of this Philadelphia offense at this points. The Eagles are scoring only 21.0 PPG — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games at home Under the Total. Philadelphia has also played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as the dog. Additionally, Philly has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs — and the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 home games in the playoffs. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing their last two games at home. Pete Carroll’s teams have also played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total after aa narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Seahawks are also marred by injuries to their offense with their top three running backs out the season along with their best offensive lineman in left tackle Duane Brown. Seattle has scored only 21.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 333.3 total YPG which is -4.0 PPG and -41.1 YPG below their season average. The Seahawks have started slow in their last two games as well — they trailed by a 17-7 score at home to Arizona two weeks ago before failing to score in the first half last week to the 49ers. Carroll’s teams have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half of two straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the playoffs as a favorite. Seattle has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs when laying the points.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of a November 24th meeting between these two teams in Philadelphia where the Seahawks won by a 17-9 score in windy conditions. It will be windy in this game as well which limited Wilson’s deep passing game the first time around. These two teams have now played 4 straight Unders. 10* NFL Seattle-Philadelphia NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (147) and the Philadelphia Eagles (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-20 |
Vikings v. Saints OVER 47 |
Top |
26-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (145) and the New Orleans Saints (146). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-6) has lost two straight games with their 21-19 loss to Chicago at home last week as a 5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-10 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. And while Minnesota lost those two games despite being at home, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing their last two games at home. Now the Vikings go back on the road where they are scoring 26.5 PPG while averaging 375.7 total YPG which is +22.2 net YPG above their season average. Minnesota has played 5 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The good news for the Vikings is that they expect to get back running back Dalvin Cook for this game after missing time (and rested) with his shoulder injury. But Minnesota may be forced to abandon the run game if they fall behind by multiple scores in this contest. The Vikings have been vulnerable in their pass coverage with opposing quarterbacks posting a Passer Rating of 99.7 with clean pockets which was just 16th in the league. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes has been torched this season with opposing quarterbacks completing 80% of their passes against them. Ever since their 26-9 loss at home to Atlanta on November 10th, the Saints have been dynamite on offense as they have scored at least 26 points in all seven games while scoring at least 34 points in each of their last four contests. Quarterback Drew Brees has a sensational 15:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those last four games — and he is completing 75.9% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 125.9 since Week 11. Furthermore, since Brees’ return in Week Eight after missing five games earlier to injury, New Orleans has ranked 3rd in the NFL in Expected Points Adder per play. The emergence of tight end of Jared Cook as a viable deep threat has made a big difference. Cook has six catches of at least 20 yards since Week Eleven. But the defense has been a concern for this team since they put defensive linemen Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport on Injured Reserve. After ranking 7th in the NFL with 29.3% pressure the quarterback rate, that number has dropped to just a 23.7% QB pressure rate over their last three games without both players which is 18th in the league. The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a blowout win of at least four touchdowns over an NFC South rival — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three straight games as the favorite. New Orleans is scoring 28.4 PPG at home while averaging 420.4 total YPG — and the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games at home. The Saints have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total in the playoffs.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 meetings Over the Total. New Orleans is clicking on offense — but look for the Vikings to resort to their passing game to keep up. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (145) and the New Orleans Saints (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-20 |
Titans v. Patriots OVER 43.5 |
|
20-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (143) and the New England Patriots (144). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-7) clinched the final spot in the AFC playoffs last Sunday with their 35-14 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite. New England (12-4) looks to rebound from their 27-24 upset loss to Miami at home last week as a 17.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread win. The fortunes of this Tennessee team changed in Week Seven when head coach Matt Vrabel turned to Ryan Tannehill as his starting quarterback. Since that game, Tannehill has led an offense that averages 6.94 Yards-Per-Play which is best in the NFL over that span. The Titans also averaged 406.2 total YPG since Tannehill became the starting quarterback which was 3rd best in the league. Tannehill’s Passer Rating of 117.5 leads the NFL. Tennessee stays on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Titans have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Titans have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog. New England surrendered 389 yards to the Dolphins in their losing effort last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Patriots have allowed 324.0 total YPG over their last three games which is +49.1 net YPG above their season average. New England has also scored a healthy 27.3 PPG over their last three games. Additionally, the Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a game at home where both teams scored at least 24 points. Moving forward, New England has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the playoffs — and they have played 9 of their last 10 playoff games Over the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against AFC opponents — and the Titans have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against AFC foes. Additionally, these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total when playing in Foxborough. 10* NFL Tennessee-New England CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (143) and the New England Patriots (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-20 |
Bills v. Texans UNDER 44 |
Top |
19-22 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (141) and the Houston Texans (142). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) enters the playoffs having lost their last two games along with three of the last four games with their 13-6 loss at home to the New York Jets last Sunday as a 1.5-point underdog. Houston (10-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-14 loss at home to Tennessee as a 10-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Buffalo plays outstanding defense — they rank 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 16.2 PPG and they rank 3rd in the league by giving up just 298.2 total YPG. But the issue for this team is scoring as they average just 19.6 PPG — and they have managed to score only 13.3 PPG in their last three games. The Bills go on the road where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, Houston has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Texans will be without wide receiver Will Fuller for this contests who has been downgraded to doubtful with his groin injury. Fuller plays a critical role in this offense with his speed giving Houston the ability to stretch the field. In their 325 passing plays with Fuller on the field, the Texans averaged 7.0 yards per passing plays with 31 plays that gained at least 20 yards — but in their 303 passing plays without Fuller, they averaged just 5.8 yards per play with just 17 plays gaining at least 20 yards. Houston has played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents — and the Texans have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (141) and the Houston Texans (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-19 |
49ers v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 |
|
26-21 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (12-3) has won two of their last three games with their 34-31 win over the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Saturday night. Seattle (11-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 27-13 upset loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point favorite lat Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Much is at stake in this game with the winner taking the NFC West crown with the loser taking the 5th seed in the playoffs and a date on the road next week. If the 49ers win this game, they also secure the top seed in the NFC side of the playoff bracket. With the stakes so high, expect a shootout between two teams that have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Over the Total. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. San Francisco has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers have also played three straight Overs with all three games seeing at least 51 combined points scored — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Niners play on defense has collapsed since the injury of the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander. After holding their opponents to just 11 PPG in their first seven contests, they have allowed their last eight opponents to average 26.5 PPG. This defense has become even more banged up as the season goes on with this unit now missing defensive lineman Dee Ford and safety Jaquiski Tartt. The Niners have allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG while averaging 383.3 total YPG which is -105.9 net YPG above their defensive season average. San Francisco surrendered 395 total yards to the Rams last week with 323 of those yards coming in the air. The 49ers have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last contest. Now after playing their last two games at home, San Francisco goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The 49ers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in December — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as the favorite. And in their last 4 games against fellow NFC West opponents, San Francisco has played all 4 games Over the Total. Seattle has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against NFC West foes. The Seahawks have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 23 of their last 33 home games Over the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Seattle is a M*A*S*H unit right now with their stable of running backs decimated by injuries and left tackle Duane Brown out with a bicep injury. The Seahawks had to resort to signing former players Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin off the street to serve as the running backs this week. While this is not ideal, if there is one position (outside of kicker) where a team could sign a player off the street and still see success that week, it is at running back — and both players are familiar with the playbook already. Frankly, the only way that Seattle can stay competitive in this game is in a higher-scoring game given the sorry state of their defense. The Seahawks rank 26th in the NFL by allowing 380.5 total YPG — and they allow their visitors to score 29.0 PPG while seeing them average 385.0 total YPG. Over their last three games, Seattle has allowed their opponents to score 26.3 PPG while generating 427.0 total YPG. The Cardinals gained 412 yards against them last week in the rematch of their earlier NFC West clash — and the Seahawks have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Seattle stays at home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog overall.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle won the first meeting between these two teams by a 27-24 score in overtime as a 6.5-point underdog — and the Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 10* NFL San Francisco-Seattle NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-19 |
Browns v. Bengals UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
23-33 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (103) and the Cincinnati Bengals (104). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-9) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 31-15 loss to Baltimore last week as a 9.5-point underdog. Cincinnati (1-14) has lost three games in a row with their 38-35 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Who knows how rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens will call plays this afternoon in his likely last opportunity to fulfill his lifelong fantasy of being both a head coach and offensive coordinator calling plays. Kitchens has been an utter failure this season with his lack of leadership best displayed in his unwillingness to defer the play-calling responsibilities to offensive coordinator Todd Monken after the Browns struggled early in the season. Kitchens had never even been an offensive coordinator when last season started — and he is unlikely to ever be a head coach or offensive coordinator ever again (at least in the NFL). Kitchens may use this game to dig deep into his drawings book of unused plays he has been compiling throughout his long traveled career as a journeyman assistant coach. But, I suspect he will be compelled to draw up plenty of running plays to feed the rock to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt for a delusional Hail Mary pass to keep his job when facing the league’s worst statistical run defense — and that is a good formula for the Under. As it is, the Browns have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. And while Cleveland managed only 241 yards of offense last week, the Under is then 42-20-2 in their last 64 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Browns are averaging just 322.3 YPG over their last three games — and they score only 19.3 PPG on the road. Cleveland needs to tighten things up on the defensive side of the ball after allowing 69 combined points over their last two games. The Browns have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total allowing at least 30 points in two straight contests. And while Cleveland allowed the Ravens to average 6.77 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.0 YPP. Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss — and the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after a loss. And while the Bengals went into halftime last week trailing the Dolphins by a 21-6 score, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after trailing by at least two touchdowns at halftime of their last game. Cincinnati did generate 430 yards last week — but the Under is 10-3-2 in their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals return home where they are scoring only 16.4 PPG. The Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Under is also 12-3-1 in Cincinnati’s last 16 games as an underdog. And in their last 16 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Under is 10-4-2.
FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have clinched the number one pick in the 2020 NFL draft — but they will be motivated to avenge a 27-19 loss in Cleveland back on December 8th as a 6.5-point underdog. Cincinnati has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (103) and the Cincinnati Bengals (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-19 |
Packers v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
23-10 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-3) has won three in a row with their 21-13 win over Chicago as a 4-point favorite last week. Minnesota (10-4) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 39-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Green Bay has an improved defense this season that is 8th in the NFL by allowing only 20.2 PPG. Over their last three games, the Packers have allowed just 13.7 PPG along with only 337.3 total YPG. Some of the help to the defense has been a different style of play under first-year head coach Matt LeFleur as the team is running the ball more which keeps their defense rested. But Green Bay is averaging only 336.6 total YPG as a result which is 21st in the NFL. When the Packers play away from Lambeau Field, they are scoring just 20.8 PPG while averaging only 271.0 total YPG. Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. While LeFleur’s emphasis on running the football may have made this team a more consistent winner, he is also very predictable with his game planning. Not including the first quarter (with those initial scripted plays), quarterback Aaron Rodgers is completing less than 60% of his passes with only four touchdown passes over his last eighteen (non-first quarter) quarters. Those unimpressive numbers suggest LeFleur is getting out-schemed as the game moves forward. Furthermore, the Packers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games against NFC North opponents, Green Bay has played all 7 of these games Under the Total. Minnesota has played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total against fellow teams from the NFC North. The Vikings have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by at least 14 points — and they have played 40 of their last 57 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Minnesota is undermanned tonight at the running back position with both Delvin Cook and Alexander Mattison not playing because of injuries. Over their last three games, the Vikings are averaging just 350.7 total YPG which is -21.9 YPG below their season average. Minnesota still has a great defense that ranks 6th in the NFL by allowing just 18.5 PPG. The Vikings defense is even better when playing at home where they are holding their opponents to just 14.2 PPG along with only 314.7 total YPG. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-19 |
Chiefs v. Bears UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
26-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (479) and the Chicago Bears (478). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (10-4) has won four straight games with their 23-3 win over Denver last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Chicago (7-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week in their 21-13 loss at Green Bay as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home against an AFC West rival. Additionally, Kansas City has played 50 of their last 78 games Under the Total after winning three straight games. And while the Chiefs have covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 gamed Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Kansas City defense has been outstanding over their last four games since their bye week. The Chiefs are allowing only 9.3 PPG in their last four contests which is tops in the NFL — and they are giving up just 287.0 total YPG over those four games which is 5th best in the league. Kansas City is holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 62.6 Passer Rating which is 2nd best in the NFL. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points in their last four games — and they have then played 49 of their last 80 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as the favorite. Chicago has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Bears have also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago did generate 415 total yards against the Packers — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has played better as of late — he averaged 299 passing yards per game over his last four games. But he has put up those numbers against the Detroit, NY Giants, Dallas, and Green Bay defenses so his improved stats should be put into the contest. Trubisky dropped back to throw 53 passes last week — and the Bears have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where they attempted at least 50 passes. Chicago returns home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. The Bears still have an elite level defense as they rank 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.1 PPG — and they rank 8th in the league by giving up just 324.8 total YPG. Chicago’s defense is even tougher at home where they are allowing just 17.1 PPG along with only 299.7 total YPG. The Bears have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: It will be chilly tonight on the south of Chicago in Soldier Field with temperatures dropping to the mid-30s. The Bears have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total in December. Kansas City has played 4 straight games Under the Total in December. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (479) and the Chicago Bears (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-19 |
Rams v. 49ers OVER 44 |
|
31-34 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 44-21 upset loss at Dallas as a 1-point favorite. San Francisco (11-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-22 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least 10 points as a home favorite. San Francisco has allowed 75 combined points over their last two games with injuries on defense playing a significant role in the decline of play on that side of the ball. Losing linebacker Kwon Alexander took away the heart and soul of that unit in his late-October season-ending injury. The 49ers have allowed 25.9 PPG over their last seven games after limiting their first seven opponents to a mere 11 PPG. They have picked off only one pass over those last seven games and they have managed only three sacks over their last three games. San Fran has seen their last two games finish Over the Total — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs. The 49ers stay at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total in December. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 35 points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Now the Rams stay on the road where they have played 30 of their last 46 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Los Angeles offense has picked things up as of late as they are scoring 27.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging 431.0 total YPG. The Rams have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog overall.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams will be looking to avenge a 20-7 loss at home to the 49ers back on October 13th. Todd Gurley did not play in that game which limited their ground attack as well as the credibility of their play-action passes. Los Angles has played 21 of their last 35 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points. 10* NFL LA Rams-San Francisco O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-19 |
Colts v. Saints UNDER 48 |
Top |
7-34 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-7) has lost three straight games with their 38-35 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (10-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 48-46 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While last week saw 94 combined points scored in a scoring fest between two NFC powers, history is not likely to repeat itself tonight back in the Big Easy. mNot only have the Saints played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game but they have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Drew Brees led an offense that generated 465 yard of offense — but New Orleans has then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they gained at least 400 yards. Furthermore, the Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 30 points — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 40 points in their last contest. And while New Orleans has scored at least 26 points in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight contests. The Saints offensive line is banged up right now so it may be difficult for them to continue to put up these big offensive numbers. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record overall, New Orleans has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Colts have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing three games in a row. The Indianapolis game plan will be to run the football with a healthy Marlon Mack working behind their great offensive line with the goal of controlling possession and burning time off the clock. The Colts have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 12 of the last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Indianapolis has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, the Colts have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total in December. With the Colts unlikely to have wide receiver T.Y. Hilton tonight with head coach Frank Reich claiming he would only play if he was 100% again, the Indianapolis offense will be limited and unlikely willing to try to get into a shootout after losing in a high-scoring game with the Buccaneers. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-19 |
Bills v. Steelers OVER 36.5 |
|
17-10 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (321) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 24-17 loss at home to Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (8-5) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 23-17 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: We bet numbers — and an Over/Under set in the mid-30s is simply too low in a game between two teams that is expected to be highly competitive between two potential playoff teams. The Steelers have played 34 of their last 54 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. And while the Bills are allowing only 16.3 PPG this season, Pittsburgh has played 30 of their last 45 home games Over the Total against teams who do not allow more than 17 PPG — and they have played 17 of their last 23 home games in the second half of the season against opponents not allowing more than 17 PPG. Furthermore, the Steelers have played 37 of their last 56 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 38 point range — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as the favorite. And while Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then played 16 of their last 23 home games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Additionally, the Steelers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning eight of their last ten games. And while Pittsburgh has played five straight Unders which has helped drive this betting number down, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing five straight Unders. The Steelers’ offense will get a jump start with the return of running back James Conner. Buffalo only managed 209 yards of offense last week while averaging just 3.37 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 29 of their last 51 games Over the Total after failing to average at least 4.0 YPP in their last game including playing four of these last six games Over the Total. Buffalo does average 23.0 PPG when playing on the road — and while that is not a huge number, it does look more impressive when confronting a Total below 40. The Bills are conservative on offense given their outstanding defense but they have scored at least 17 points in eleven of their games while reaching at least 20 points in seven of their contests.
FINAL TAKE: Because this is expected to be a close game, the scoring should continue to trickle in during all 60 minutes of this contest — and this logic is supported by an empirical angle that has been 68% effective over the last five seasons. In games involving a team that has won at least three of their last four games now facing a team that has won at least four of their last five games have then finished Over the Total in 55 of these last 81 situations where these conditions applied. 10* NFL Buffalo-Pittsburgh NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (321) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-12-19 |
Jets v. Ravens UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
21-42 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) has won four of their last five games with their 22-21 win at home against Miami last week as a 5-point favorite. Baltimore (11-2) has won nine straight games after their 24-17 win at Buffalo last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Baltimore offense leads the NFL by scoring 33.1 PPG — but they have only averaged 22 PPG in their last two contests while generating just 270.4 total YPG. The Ravens have played two outstanding defenses in their last two games against San Francisco and then the Bills last week — but those defenses also provided a blueprint as to how to slow down Lamar Jackson and this unique Baltimore offense. For starters, defenses are having their athletic defensive ends play “cat-and-mouse” with Jackson to not overcommit in their actions to contain the speedy QB in the pocket and force him to pass or run for a shorter gain. Second, pass coverages deploying quarter-quarter-half schemes which are pushing Jackson’s passing options to one side of the field. Lastly, Buffalo began to commit earlier to shifting a few defenders to the other side of the field in response to the Baltimore Escort Motion where a tight end (or wide receiver) goes in motion to offer a run-blocker on the other side of the field. The problem with that Bills’ tactic of shifting defenders before the man-in-motion passes the center will be that the Ravens will eventually reverse that motion and catch defenders moving too quickly to the wrong side. However, I don’t think Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman wastes that wrinkle on the Jets tonight — so the Jets should have some success copy-catting this and these other new defensive strategies. As it is, New York has an outstanding run defense that is 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 78.8 rushing YPG — and they lead the league by holding opposing rushers to use 3.03 Yards-Per-Carry. The Ravens return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. While Jackson gets most of the attention, the Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 18.2 PPG and 6th in the league by limiting their opponents to only 314.6 total YPG. The Ravens have also held their last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 253.7 total YPG. The Bills passed for only 105 yards against them last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Baltimore’s defense starts with their outstanding secondary that might have become the best unit in the league with the midseason trade of cornerback Marcus Peters. Not only do strong cover skills help the pass rush, but it also gives defensive coordinator Wink Martindale the freedom to take more chances with the blitz. The Ravens lead the NFL by blitzing on 54.5% of the time — and now they face Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold tonight. In that Monday night game against the Patriots on October 21st when Darnold was caught on mic admitting he was seeing “ghosts” in the backfield against the Patriots blitz, he completed just 8 of 16 passes for only 66 yards with no touchdown passes and three interceptions when facing a blitz. For the season, Darnold ranks 30th of 32 quarterbacks with a 48.2 Passer Rating when facing the blitz. Darnold did complete 20 of 36 passes last week against the Dolphins for 270 yards — but the Jets have played 4 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now New York goes on the road where they are scoring just 15.5 PPG along with averaging just 239.7 total YPG. The Jets have played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. New York’s defense does travel as they are holding their home hosts to just 308.8 total YPG. And in their last three games, the Jets are allowing only 15.3 PPG and just 282.2 total YPG. Additionally, New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: I don’t see the Jets scoring much tonight. Even if the Ravens put up a big number against this good New York defense, head coach John Harbaugh will likely call off the proverbial dogs early in this one with it being played on a short week. Jackson is not 100% with sore quads and getting him to the bench better takes advantage of the extra time off he will have before his next game. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-19 |
Giants v. Eagles UNDER 47 |
Top |
17-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (159) and the Philadelphia Eagles (160). THE SITUATION: New York (2-10) has lost eight games in a row with their 31-13 loss at home to Green Bay last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-7) has lost three games in a row after their embarrassing 37-31 upset loss at Miami last week as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles should respond with a better effort tonight after that humiliating loss to the Dolphins — and their improved level of play will most likely translate on the defensive side of the football. Philadelphia had held their previous four opponents to no more than 17 points before allowing those 37 points to Miami. They also had not allowed more than 225 passing yards in five straight games before Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 351 yards against them last week. The Eagles have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last game — and they gave played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where they both scored and allowed at least 30 points. Philadelphia has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. The Eagles return home where they are holding their opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with only 270.5 total YPG which is the third lowest number at home in the NFL. Philadelphia has played 4 straight home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as the favorite. But while Philly should play better on defense, they are limited in what they can accomplish on offense with DeSean Jackson on Injured Reserve with his abdominal injury. The Eagles lack a credible vertical threat without Jackson which allows opposing defenses to cheat their strong safety into the box. Philadelphia is scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 328.3 total YPG. They have played a decisive 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. New York will be turning to Eli Manning back under center tonight with rookie Daniel Jones out with his ankle injury. Remember, Manning lost his job in September given his declining throwing skills made his lack of mobility a significant liability. Manning will also be without the top two tight ends on the roster with Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison out with injuries tonight. This is not good news for an offense that has scored only 18.0 PPG while averaging just 286.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Giants’ defense has played better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 317.0 total YPG. New York held the Packers to just 79 rushing yards last week — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, the Giants have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing at least eight of their last ten games. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40% to 49% percentage in the second half of the season, New York has played all 6 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football Under the Total — and in their last 9 opportunities to host the Giants in Philadelphia, the game finished Under the Total 7 times. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (159) and the Philadelphia Eagles (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-19 |
Seahawks v. Rams UNDER 48 |
Top |
12-28 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (157) and the Los Angeles Rams (158). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-2) has won five games in a row with their 37-30 win over Minnesota as a 3-point favorite for Monday Night Football. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 34-7 win at Arizona last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It might be tempting for many bettors to take the Over in this game with the Over Machine that is the Seahawks facing a Rams team that put up 34 points in a rematch from a 30-29 scoring fest that Seattle pulled out back on October 3rd. The historical numbers for situations like this (too valuable to share) strongly suggest that these games most likely finish Under the Total. These circumstances are certainly helping us to get some value with the Under with the number creeping up in the high-40s still. Seattle enters this game on a short week — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing on Monday Night Football. The Seahawks are playing increasingly better on the defensive side of the football — they have held their last three opponents to just 333.3 total YPG which is -35.6 net YPG below their season average. Seattle goes back on the road where they are allowing just 19.5 PPG. The Seahawks have played 25 of their last 41 road games Under the Total with the number at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number at 45.5 to 49. The Rams will want to run the football after rushing the ball 30 times last week for 132 yards in their blowout victory over the Cardinals. Head coach Sean McVay commented this week about not being an “idiot” by not feeding running back Todd Gurley the football (despite the loss in his lateral mobility with his arthritis). Los Angeles has run the ball at least 26 times in four of their last six games — and they have not so coincidentally played six of their last seven games Under the Total. But they will now be facing a Seattle defense that is 8th in the NFL by allowing just 99.6 rushing YPG. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They also held Arizona to just 74 rushing yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The LA defense is much improved after the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey which gave them an elite cover-corner. Over their last three games, the Rams have held their opponents to just 19.7 PPG along with only 315.0 total YPG. Los Angeles returns home where they are scoring only 19.4 PPG while averaging a mere 313.4 total YPG. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total. They also have played 29 of their last 43 games in December Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Ramsey did not play in the first meeting between these two teams — so his ability to bottleneck the Seahawks’ wide receiver Tyler Lockett as a deep threat from Russell Wilson. The Rams threw the ball in 49 of their 67 offensive plays in that opening game. I will be shocked if the skewed Run/Pass ratio will resemble that tonight. Look for LA to use their running game to burn time off the clock which is usually the Seahawks game plan as well (especially when they are playing on the road). The Rams have played 5 straight Unders when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (157) and the Los Angeles Rams (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-19 |
Lions v. Vikings UNDER 44.5 |
|
7-20 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (143) and the Minnesota Vikings (144). THE SITUATION: Detroit (3-8-1) has lost five games in a row with their 24-20 loss at home to Chicago on Thanksgiving as a 5.5-point underdog. Minnesota (8-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 37-30 loss at Seattle as a 3-point underdog on Sunday Night Football.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. They did get a surprisingly good performance from undrafted rookie free agent David Blough at quarterback who completed 22 of 38 passes for 280 yards. But after Blough led the team to a 17-10 halftime lead, Detroit only scored a field goal in the second half with the Bears slowing down the Lions offense. Now this stout Vikings’ defense has had ten days to study the game tape of the former Purdue quarterback to dissect for this contest. Detroit gained 364 yards in that contest — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC North opponents — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total in December. Minnesota will be looking to get back to playing outstanding defense after surrendering 444 yards of offense to the Seahawks last week. The Vikings have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now Minnesota returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 15.6 PPG along with only 331.4 total YPG. The Vikings have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, Minnesota has paled 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents. And in their last 9 games in December, the Vikings have played 7 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota won the first meeting between these two teams by a 42-30 sore as a 2.5-point favorite back on October 20th. Head coach Matt Patricia should dial-up some better schemes on defense for this rematch. These two teams have played 9 of their last 12 meetings Under the Total — and these two teams have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (143) and the Minnesota Vikings (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-19 |
Cowboys v. Bears UNDER 43.5 |
|
24-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Chicago Bears (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-15 upset loss to Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite. Chicago (6-6) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 24-20 win at Detroit last Thursday on Thanksgiving Day as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. This is also a team that has lost the turnover battle in four straight games after not generating even one takeaway over that stretch. Dallas has then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a losing the turnover battle in their last game — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after suffering a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least four straight games. And while they have gained a healthy 418.7 total YPG over their last three contests, that has translated into just 19.7 PPG. Rookie offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is getting outfoxed by veteran defensive coordinators on big downs. The Red Zone success rate for scoring touchdowns in these last three games is just at 45.5% which represents a decline from their 54.8% touchdown success rate in the end zone for the season. Kicking woes are certainly playing a part in the malaise with this team after placekicker Brett Maher missed two gimme-field goals last week. Maher has missed five of his eleven field goal attempts from 30 to 49 yards which is the second-worst in the league. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 398.0 total YPG which is not nearly as impressive as their 27.7 PPG scoring mark at home where they also generate 468.1 total YPG. The defense remains very good for this team — they rank 8th in the NFL by allowing 19.7 PPG and by limiting their opponents to just 321.6 total YPG. The Dallas defense has been even better on the road where they hold their opponents to just 19.2 PPG along with only 294.7 total YPG. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they allowed the Lions’ behind rookie quarterback David Blough to generate 364 yards last week, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Chicago ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 17.3 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up just 319.7 total YPG — and this team holds their visitors to just 16.0 PPG along with only 281.7 total YPG when playing at home. This unit should be up for the challenge tonight — while Dallas averages 25.8 PPG, the Bears have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 24 PPG. Chicago did gain 419 yards last week against a bad Lions defense — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this team turns home where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total. They also have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total as a small underdog getting up to 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: The cold weather should play a role in slowing down both offenses that struggle in translating their drives into touchdowns. Dallas ranks 24th in the NFL in Yards-Per-Point with Chicago ranking 19th in that metric — and the Cowboys are 31st in the league in that metric over their last three games while the Bears rank 28th. Chicago has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in December. 10* NFL Dallas-Chicago Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Chicago Bears (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-19 |
Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 48.5 |
|
30-37 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Seattle Seahawks (476). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-2) has won four straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 17-9 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week. Minnesota (8-3) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-23 win over Denver at home as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory by 6 points or less. Additionally, Minnesota has played 20 of their last 25 games on the road Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Ever since getting called out by wide receiver Adam Thielen for not being aggressive enough in the passing game, Kirk Cousins has been on fire. Since Week Five, Cousins is completing 73% of his passes with 18 touchdowns passes and just one interception. Those 18 TD passes are most in the NFL over that span and his 75 Quarterback Rating since Week Five is the fourth-best in the NFL. The Vikings are 6th in the NFL by averaging 378.6 total YPG — and they are generating 384.7 YPG when playing on the road. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row. But a concern for the Vikings as of late has been the play of their defense. over their last three games, Minnesota is allowing 24.3 PPG along with 404.7 total YPG which are +5.7 PPG and +66.1 YPG above their season average. Seattle has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Now the Seahawks return home where their defense has been surprisingly shaky. Seattle is allowing its visitors to score 29.2 PPG while averaging 385.8 total YPG. But behind Russell Wilson, the Seahawks are outscoring their opponents as they are 3rd in the NFL by averaging 385.4 total YPG — and they are scoring 26.8 PPG while generating 403.2 total YPG when playing at home. Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 7 points — and they have also played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Seahawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in December.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing in Seattle. 10* NFL Minnesota-Seattle ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Seattle Seahawks (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-19 |
Patriots v. Texans UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
22-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Houston Texans (474). THE SITUATION: New England (10-1) has won their last two games after their 13-9 win over Dallas last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (7-4) has won three of their last four games after their 20-17 win over Indianapolis two Thursdays ago as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The New England offense is not operating close to peak levels right now with Tom Brady lacking reliable vertical targets. The Patriots are scoring only 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 307.3 total YPG. Remember that New England has scored six non-offensive touchdowns this season from their defense or special teams — so while they are scoring 27.3 PPG, that number drops 23.5 PPG when only accounting for offensive touchdowns. The Patriots’ defense is leading the way for this team — that unit ranks number one in the NFL by allowing only 10.6 PPG and they are second in the league by giving up just 256.4 total YPG. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 25 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans offense has slowed as of late as they are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging just 346.0 total YPG. New England’s shutdown cornerback, Stephon Gilmore will likely neutralize Texans’ wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins — and while Will Fuller has played better as of late, the Patriots’ discipline on defense should contain him. Houston does play better defense at home — they are holding their visitors to just 20.2 PPG along with only 325.0 total YPG. The Texans have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: In New England’s last 12 games in December, they have played 10 of these games Under the Total. And in the Texans’ last 11 games played in December, Houston has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Houston Texans (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-19 |
Saints v. Falcons UNDER 50 |
Top |
26-18 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (309) and the Atlanta Falcons (310). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (9-2) has won their last two games after their 34-31 win over Carolina last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Atlanta (3-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-22 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while New Orleans averaged 418 yards of offense last week while averaging 7.33 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after averaging at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. The Saints will look to run the ball more in this rematch of their 26-9 upset loss at home to Atlanta back on November 10th. New Orleans only ran the ball 11 times in that game with Drew Brees since commenting that the offense needs more balance this time around. Running the ball will not only burn more time off the clock but it will help the Saints defense that surrendered more than 300 yards offense in that game for the first time in five contests. New Orleans then gave up 351 yards last week to the Panthers — but the Saints have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for the New Orleans defense is that they will get cornerback Marshon Lattimore who has missed the last few games since being injured in that first encounter with the Falcons where he exited the game holding Julio Jones without a catch. He will help a defense that still ranks 10th in the NFL by allowing 321.3 total YPG. But the Saints remain banged up with their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Andrus Peat both out for this game. Remember that this New Orleans offense slowed down significantly last season when Armstead went down with an injury. New Orleans is averaging just 317.4 total YPG in their five games on the road which is -51.5 net YPG below their season average. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Falcons had found success after their bye week to begin the month by running back to running the football. In their upset wins over New Orleans and Carolina, Atlanta ran the ball 34 and 26 times. The Atlanta defense also started playing better when head coach Dan Quinn relinquished the defensive play-calling to his assistants while moving Rakeem Morris from offense back to defense (where he built his reputation that eventually got the head coaching gig in Tampa Bay) to coach the defensive backs while calling plays on 3rd down. The Falcons have held their last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG. Atlanta did allow 446 yards last week to the Bucs, they have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Falcons stay at home where they are scoring only 17.2 PPG. They will have Devonta Freeman available to run the football but Jones is a game-time decision at wide receiver. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Falcons have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Atlanta. The Under is also 7-0-1 in the Saints’ last 8 games played on a Thursday — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the Falcons’ last 5 games played on Thursdays. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (309) and the Atlanta Falcons (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-19 |
Bears v. Lions UNDER 39 |
|
24-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (315) and the Detroit Lions (316). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-6) enters this game coming off a 19-14 win over the New York Giants on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Detroit (3-7-1) has lost four straight games with their 19-16 upset loss at Washington as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: With Matthew Stafford possibly out the season with his hip injury and backup, Jeff Driskel, dealing with a bad hamstring injury he suffered last week, the Lions will be starting rookie David Blough at quarterback for this game. Blough was a part-time starter last year for Purdue who was drafted by Cleveland before being traded to Detroit in late August. Blough has not played a down in a regular-season game yet. Driskel is available as the backup but tight end Logan Thomas will be the emergency QB if something happens to Blough and Driskel is unavailable. This is yet the next disaster for a disastrous franchise that has signed and cut six other quarterbacks in 2019. It is not just the utter failure of this regime under general manager Bob Quinn to identify and develop backup talent quarterback behind Stafford, it is that they are relying on guys like Driskell and now Blough who did not have the benefit of training camp. Then again, maybe that would not have helped much — the football culture in Detroit is the polar opposite of the one in New England where Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia were imported (because they had once been in the same rook as Bill Belichick). The Lions are also dealing with below replacement level talent at running back after the injury to Kerryon Johnson. They did manage 364 yards last week against the hapless Skins in that losing effort — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Detroit defense has been playing better as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 321.7 total YPG which is -74.5 net YPG below their season average. But the Lions are scoring just 18.7 PPG in those three games before relying today on the guy who could not beat out Elijah Sindelar for the starting gig at Purdue last year. Detroit has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have not covered the point spread in six straight contests, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in at least five straight games. Additionally, the Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 6 games against fellow opponents from the NFC North, Detroit has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Chicago has played 6 straight games Under the Total against divisional opponents. The Bears have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Chicago offense is also a mess under the regressing Mitchell Trubisky — they are scoring only 15.3 PPG while averaging 276.0 total YPG over their last three games. But the Bears defense has stepped up in their last three games by allowing just 14.7 PPG along with only 294.0 total YPG. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Now the Bears go on the road where they are scoring just 17.8 PPG along with averaging 247.6 total YPG. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 5 games in November, the Bears have played all 5 games Under the Total. Furthermore, while Chicago has lost five of their last seven games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total after the Bears won the first meeting between these two teams on November 12th by a 20-13 score. With this game being played on a short week with an early afternoon start, expect lots of stalled drives and mostly field goal attempts. Even with the low number, take the Under. 10* NFL Chicago-Detroit Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (315) and the Detroit Lions (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-19 |
Ravens v. Rams UNDER 47.5 |
|
45-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Los Angeles Rams (276). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-2) has won six straight games with their 41-7 win over Houston at home last week as a 4-point favorite. Los Angeles (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 17-7 win over Chicago last Sunday as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning their last game by at least two touchdowns. Their win over the Texans came on the heels of a 49-13 win at Cincinnati — and Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by at least three touchdowns. Furthermore, the Ravens have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. With Baltimore averaging 42.3 PPG over their last three games, it is certainly very tempting to expect another higher-scoring game from them tonight. But the Ravens have played 31 of their last 45 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in two straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. While Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense is getting most of the attention, the Ravens’ defense has been playing quite well as of late. Baltimore has held its last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 293.7 total YPG. The Ravens have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Rams are scoring 24.3 PPG, Baltimore has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams that score at least 24 PPG. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a points spread victory. Head coach Sean McVay has begun to change the identity of his offense to rely more heavily on his rushing attack. Los Angeles has averaged 30 rushing attempts over their last four games. This will likely continue to be the strategy tonight to keep Jackson off the field for the Ravens. The Rams have held their last three opponents to just 11.3 PPG along with only 313.7 total YPG. The acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey has certainly helped this talented unit play even better. Ramsey will have the assignment of blanketing the Ravens’ Marquise Brown which will likely eliminate the Baltimore deep passing attack. Led by Aaron Donald, Los Angeles has an outstanding run defense that ranks 4th in the league by allowing only 89.1 rushing YPG. The Bears only ran for 74 yards last week — and the Rams have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Los Angeles stays at home this week where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: While the Ravens lead the NFL by scoring 34.1 PPG, the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 27 PPG. And while Baltimore averages 24.3 first downs per game along with controlling the clock for 34.36 minutes per game, Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 32 Minutes Per Game while gaining at least 21 first downs per game. 10* NFL Baltimore-LA Rams ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Los Angeles Rams (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-19 |
Packers v. 49ers OVER 45.5 |
|
8-37 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (271) and the San Francisco 49ers (272). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-2) has won five of their last six games with their 24-16 win over Carolina two Sundays ago where they were 5-point favorites. San Francisco (9-1) looks to build on their 36-26 win at home over Arizona last Sunday where they were 10-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have seen at least 51 combined points scored in three straight games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games where 50 or more combined points were scored. San Francisco misses the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander who suffered a season-ending chest injury at the beginning of the month. The Niners have allowed 26.0 PPG over their last three games which is over 10 PPG above their 15.5 PPG season average. San Francisco looks like they will be in decent shape tonight on the other side of the ball with both tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel healthy enough to play. Although Jimmy Garoppolo continues to improve after completing 34 of 45 passes for 424 yards with four TD passes last week against the Cardinals even without those weapons. The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They should have tons of success running the ball again this Packers defense that is allowing 126.9 rushing YPG which is 25th in the NFL. The problem for this Green Bay defense is they play a Wide-Nine technique that puts tons of pressure on their interior linemen who struggle to hold the line of scrimmage. Those defensive tackles are vulnerable to double-teams — and their Wide-Nine spaces out defenders who could come in to help. The Packers are allowing 4 Yards-Per-Carry on both 1st and 2nd downs which is setting up effective play-action pass opportunities. Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in Tackles-For-Loss. San Francisco should have great success running the football as they rank 2nd in the league by averaging 149.0 rushing YPG. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents. San Francisco has also played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as the favorite. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have also played 18 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing their last game at home. And while the Packers have played two straight Unders, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Packers did give up 401 total yards against the Panthers — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has also allowed their four home hosts to average 399.0 total YPG — that helps explain why they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total on the road. The Packers have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting up to 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Over the Total. In an expected close game, look for a back-and-forth game that will finish above the number. 10* NFL Green Bay-San Francisco NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (271) and the San Francisco 49ers (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-19 |
Cowboys v. Patriots UNDER 46 |
|
9-13 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (269) and the New England Patriots (270). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-4) has won three of their last four games after their 35-27 win in Detroit last week as a 7.5-point favorite against the Lions. New England (9-1) returns home after playing their last two games on the road which culminated in a 17-10 win at Philadelphia last week as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have now covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after covering point spread expectations in three of their last four games. Dallas has been an Over machine this season having played three straight Overs as well as in seven of their ten games this season. But these higher scoring games may be, in some part, reflective of their soft schedule that has featured only three teams with a winning record. The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Dallas has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7 points or less. Additionally, while the Patriots are holding their opponents to just 4.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, the Cowboys have then played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total when facing a defense that is not allowing more than 5.2 YPA. Dallas has averaged 6.42 and then 7.27 YPP in their last two games — but they have then played 22 of the last 31 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 6 YPP in two straight games. The Cowboys have an underrated defense that is 7th in the NFL by allowing only 19.7 PPG and just 322.1 total YPG. And while the Patriots only average 1.0 Turnovers-Per-Game, Dallas has played 8 straight road games Under the Total against teams that do not average more than 1.0 Turnovers-Per-Game. New England has now covered the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Patriots’ offensive numbers are propped up a bit with their combination of five defensive and special teams touchdowns. The offense lacks a deep threat — and they will be undermanned with wide receiver Phillip Dorsett out and Mohamad Sanu questionable and limited as he deals with an injury. The Patriots defense has been not quite as spectacular as of late as their strength of schedule has dialed up — but they are still only allowing 20.0 PPG along with 312.3 total YPG over their last three games. They also hold their visitors to just 11.0 PPG along with only 234.0 total YPG. New England has played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying no more than 7 points — and they have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points overall. And in their last 5 games in the month of November, the Patriots have played 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The cold weather will make the Dallas offense uncomfortable — a familiar foe for dome teams. Don’t be surprised if the tone of this game resembles the Cowboys’ 12-10 win in New Orleans earlier this season (although I lean to the Patriots). 10* NFL Dallas-New England Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (269) and the New England Patriots (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-19 |
Colts v. Texans UNDER 46 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (109) and the Houston Texans (110). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-4) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 33-13 win over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (6-4) saw their two-game winning streak end on Sunday with their 41-7 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played been playing defense as of late. They are 11th in the NFL by allowing 325.6 total YPG but over their last three games that mark has lowered to just 270.0 total YPG — and they have held their last there opponents to only 18.3 PPG. But the Indianapolis offense will be hampered with injuries for this game being played on a short week. Running back Marlon Mack will also be out several weeks after fracturing his hand last week in the third quarter after leading the team with 108 rushing yards. And while wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Eric Ebron has practiced yesterday and are expected to play tonight, their respective effectiveness remains in question as they are dealing with their calf and ankle injuries. Even backup running back, Jordan Wilkins, is slowed with a hamstring injury. These are far from optimal conditions for an offense that ranks 21st in the NFL by averaging 343.8 total YPG — and that number drops to just 330.7 total YPG that they average on the road. The Colts have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Indianapolis has also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Houston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Texans managed only 232 yards last week — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Houston has also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. The Texans are scoring just 20.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 343.3 total YPG with both marks far below their 24.5 PPG and 380.2 total YPG season averages. Now Houston returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total. The Texans have been playing much better defense as those where they are holding their visitors to just 21.0 PPG along with only 332.2 total YPG. Houston has allowed 408.3 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 total YPG over their last three games. The Texans have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And in their last 6 games against AFC South opponents, Houston has played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 30-23 victory over Houston back on October 20th. But despite that game finished above the 46.5 point Total, these team two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (109) and the Houston Texans (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-19 |
Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 53 |
Top |
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-4) has lost two of their last three games as well as four of their last six contests after their 35-32 upset loss at Tennessee as a 5-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (4-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two Thursdays ago with their 26-21 upset loss at Oakland as a 1-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Chargers have an underrated defense — they are 6th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG and they are also 6th in the league by limiting these foes to only 318.6 total YPG. Los Angeles has held its last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 283.3 total YPG. Improved run defense has been fundamental to Chargers’ playing even better on that side of the football. After getting gouged for 162 rushing yards at Chicago three weeks ago, Los Angeles held the Packers to only 45 rushing yards before limiting the Raiders last week to just 78 rushing yards. The Chargers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. But Los Angeles has also averaged only 329.3 total YPG over their last three games which is over 25 YPG below their season average. The Chargers’ star left tackle, Russell Okung has been downgraded to doubtful for this game with his ankle injury. That is not a good turn of events for a team that is just 21st in the NFL by averaging 20.7 PPG. Los Angeles has then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November — and they have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents. The Chargers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Kansas City had played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, the Chiefs have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. The Chargers’ game plan will surely be to run the football against the Chiefs defense that ranks 30th in the NFL by allowing 148.1 rushing YPG. LA running the football will burn time off the clock while keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field. Kansas City allowed the Titans to rush for 225 yards last week — and they have then played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to rush for at least 150 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played nine straight games where no more than 50 combined points have been scored. The Chiefs have played three of their last six games where no more than 49 combined points were scored. With this game being played in altitude of 7200 square feet, the Chargers will be looking to slow this game down to a crawl to tire out the Kansas City defense. They may not be able to stop down the Mahomes — but fewer possessions for the Chiefs offense should help this game finish below the number. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Bears v. Rams UNDER 40 |
Top |
7-17 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-5) snapped their four-game winning streak last week with their 20-10 win at home over Detroit as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (5-4) had their two-game winning streak end last week with their 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns passes — but if you think those numbers are a refection of a sudden improvement in his play, the ole eyeball test suggested otherwise during this game. The Bears only held a 7-6 lead at halftime against the Lions team playing without Matthew Stafford. Chicago only had 13 first downs in that game while being outgained by -131 net yards due to their stagnant offense that managed only 226 yards against a Detroit team that entered that game ranked second-to-last in total defense. Trubisky looks lost in his third season as a professional — and perhaps the bigger indictment of his development is that head coach Matt Nagy has clearly lost confidence in him as evidenced by his conservative play-calling. The Bears are 29th in the league by averaging 262.2 total YPG — and they are scoring just 16.7 PPG while averaging 259.3 total YPG over their last three games. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bears have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 275 yards of offense in their last game. Chicago was outgained by 309 net yards in their previous game against Philadelphia — and they have then played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total after being outgained by at least 100 yards in two straight contests. The Bears have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bears are still playing good defense this season — they rank 4th in the NFL by allowing only 17.4 PPG and they have held their last three opponents to just 320.3 total YPG. Los Angeles managed only 306 yards last week in their loss at Pittsburgh. Jared Goff completed only 22 of 41 passes for 243 yards in that loss with him struggling behind an injured offensive line. The Rams are also missing wide receiver Brandin Cooks which allows opposing defenses to double cover Cooper Krupp who did not have a reception last season. Los Angeles is getting better play from their defense since the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey. They have held their last three opponents to just 12.3 PPG along with only 299.3 total YPG. The Steelers rushed for only 42 yards last week — and Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Rams return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Chicago’s 15-6 upset victory over the Rams last December 9th. That was the game where Bears’ defensive coordinator installed a 6-1 defensive front with six defenders on the line stymying the Rams play-action pass attack. The Sean McVay offense has not been quite the same since that contest in this copycat league. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Patriots v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 |
|
17-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). THE SITUATION: New England (8-1) returns to the field again after their bye week which came after their first loss of the season in Baltimore by a 37-20 score. Philadelphia (5-4) also comes off their bye week as well after their 22-14 win over Chicago as a 5-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Look for head coach Bill Belichick to have worked on getting his defense back into shape after Lamar Jackson and the Ravens rushing attack put up 30 points against them (with 7 points coming from a defensive touchdown by Baltimore). The Patriots have played 6 straight games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. Additionally, New England has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, the Patriots have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New England remains the best statistical defense in the league as they are allowing 10.9 PPG and just 249.3 total YPG which are both best in the NFL. The Patriots are also 2nd in the NFL by scoring 30.0 PPG — but those numbers include six non-offensive touchdowns from special teams and their defense. Tellingly, New England is 15th in the NFL by averaging just 366.8 total YPG — and they are averaging just 342.4 total YPG on the road and only 327.7 total YPG over their last three games. Tom Brady lacks credible deep threats from his wide receivers — and this is allowing opponents to stack the box to put more pressure on their ground game. Now the Patriots go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have also played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total as the favorite. Philadelphia is also a team that has been limited on offense given the lack of deep threats given the injury abdominal injury to DeSean Jackson that has placed him on IR. The Eagles are just 19th in the NFL by averaging 347.0 total YPG. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after their bye week. The Philly defense has been playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 273.0 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total — and they have also played 9 of their last 111 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL New England-Philadelphia CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-17-19 |
Broncos v. Vikings UNDER 41 |
|
23-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (459) and the Minnesota Vikings (460). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-6) snapped their two-game losing streak two weeks ago with their 24-19 win over Cleveland as a 4-point underdog. Minnesota (7-3) has won five of their last six games with their 28-24 upset win last Sunday night in Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 11-1-1 in the Broncos’ last 13 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a point spread victory. And while the Denver defense surrendered 351 yards in that game, the Under is then 13-3-1 in their last 17 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Rookie QB Brandon Allen was solid but unspectacular in his first career start by completing 12 of his mere 20 passes in that game for 193 yards. I expect him to struggle against this Panthers defense that now can study him on tape executing the Denver offense in a regular-season game. The Broncos are scoring only 16.2 PPG on the road — and the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games on the road. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after their bye week. Furthermore, the Under is 8-1-1 in the Broncos’ last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as the underdog. Minnesota’s defense will be make it tough on Allen — they are holding their visitors to just 13.7 PPG along with only 315.7 total YPG. The Vikings have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Vikings’ game with the Cowboys finished Over the 48.5 point total with all but one scoring drive in that game stalling for a field goal. But Minnesota has then played 7 straight home games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored.
FINAL TAKE: Kirk Cousins targeted 16 of his 23 completions last week to tight ends or running backs with Adam Thielen on the sidelines with an ankle injury. He led the Vikings’ offense to 364 total yards in that game — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Thielen is once again out for this game — and Minnesota is facing a tough Denver defense that is 4th in the NFL by allowing only 309.7 total YPG. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (459) and the Minnesota Vikings (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Saints v. Bucs UNDER 51.5 |
|
34-17 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (453) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (454). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (7-2) saw their six-game winning streak snapped last week with their surprising 26-9 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 14-point favorite. Tampa Bay (3-6) ended their four-game losing streak last week with their 30-27 win at home over Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is, in part, a contrarian play after considering that the Buccaneers have played seven straight Overs entering this game. Tampa Bay did generate 457 yards last week but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Buccaneers have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Tampa Bay is allowing 32.0 PPG which is the worst in the NFL — but this defense also leads the NFL by giving up just 77.8 rushing YPG and that is not just about the opponents not rushing very much as opposing rushers are averaging just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. I suspect that Sean Paton will want to get his running game going after the Saints managed only 310 total yards last week. The New Orleans offense was only on the field for 26:14 minutes in that game with Drew Brees attempting 45 passes (for 287 yards) — so the Saints will likely try to re-establish their commitment to running the football to help their defense. New Orleans has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss by at least 10 points. And while the Saints are averaging 414.7 total YPG over their last three games, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 total YPG over their last three games. This team has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards. They go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The New Orleans defense ranks 5th in the league by holding their opponents to just 316.6 total YPG. And in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record, the Saints have played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 15 of their last 22 meetings Under the Total — and they have played five of their last six encounters in Tampa Bay Under the Total. With the number in the 50 range, expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (453) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
13-33 |
Loss |
-113 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago in London with their 26-3 loss to Houston as a 1-point favorite. Indianapolis (5-4) has lost two straight games with their 16-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The team does get Jacoby Brissett back under center after he missed the last two games. But he will be without his best weapon in wide receiver T.Y. Hilton who is out for this game — and his absence has had a significant impact on the ability of this offense to move down the field. The Colts defense has been keeping this team competitive — they have held their last five opponents to just 18.2 PPG with that number including an interception returned for a touchdown which was not the fault of the defense. Indianapolis is 10th in the NFL by allowing just 327.6 total YPG — and they have allowed their last three opponents to average just 260.3 total YPG. The Colts stay at home where they have played 21 of their last 31 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Indianapolis has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in November. And in their last 15 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Colts have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 4 straight games Under the Total against divisional rivals. The Jaguars have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Jacksonville has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss as the favorite in their last contest. The team gets back Nick Foles at quarterback in this game — but it is not as if Gardner Minshew was playing bad for this team since Week One. He threw for 309 yards last week while leading an offense that generated 309 yards against the Texans — but the Jags have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Jacksonville has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 14 points in their last game. Foles threw only 11 passes in Week One before he suffered his injury. Now this team goes back not he road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. This team will still rely on running back Leonard Fournette and their strong defense that has held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG along with only 304.7 total YPG. Moving forward, the Jaguars have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: These teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after last year’s 6-0 win by Jacksonville back on December 21st. While I expect more scoring than that, these two teams have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Indy. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-19 |
Steelers v. Browns UNDER 41.5 |
Top |
7-21 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-4) has won four straight games with their 17-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Rams as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Cleveland (3-6) snapped their four-game losing streak on Sunday with their 19-16 win at home over Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after point spread win — and with Pittsburgh having covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Steelers have also played 9 straight games Under the Total after playing a game against an NFC opponent. This is a team that became a defense-first run team after the season-ending injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The Steel Curtain defense had been playing better after a slow start — but this unit has gone to another level with the acquisition of Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Dolphins. Pittsburgh is allowing only 16.7 PPG along with just 288.0 total YPG over their last three games. But the Steelers are scoring only 23.3 PPG while averaging a mere 313.3 total YPG over those last three games. Overall, Pittsburgh is just 28th in the NFL by averaging 288.8 total YPG. Now after playing their last three games at home, this team goes back on the road where their offense struggles even more as they are scoring just 15.3 PPG while averaging 267.7 total YPG in their three games away from home. Surprisingly, this will be Mason Rudolph’s just second start on the road in his career after he completed just 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards in Week Three this season in their loss in San Francisco. The Steelers have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 22 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Pittsburgh has also played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Additionally, the Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC North opponents — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. Cleveland has played 22 of their last 31 home games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. The Browns ranks just 26th in the league by scoring only 19.0 PPG — and they are scoring just 17.0 PPG over their last three games. The defense has played better as of late as they are allowing only 321.3 total YPG over those last three games which is almost 35 YPG below their season average. Cleveland stays at home where the are scoring just 18.2 PPG. The Under is 17-7-1 in the Browns’ last 25 games at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Cleveland has also played 31 of their last 43 home games Under the Total when favored by up to 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Don’t be surprised if plenty of scoring drives end up in field goals. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in the NFL by scoring touchdowns in just 39.3% of their Red Zone drives — and Cleveland ranks 26th in the league with a TD rate of only 46.7% of their Red Zone drives after a meager 30% conversion rate over their last three games (including a brutal stalled drive inside the 10-yard line against the Bills’ last week). These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings in Cleveland Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-11-19 |
Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 45 |
Top |
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-2) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 40-34 win over Tampa Bay last week in overtime as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (8-0) remained unbeaten two Thursdays ago with their 28-25 win at Arizona as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in seven of their last nine games. They are 5th in the NFL by averaging 395.5 total YPG — and they also rank 7th in the league by scoring 27.6 PPG. But the concern for this team is their defense as they have allowed at least 20 points in eight of their nine contests this season. The Seahawks rank 29th in the NFL by allowing 278.1 passing YPG. Atlanta’s aging backup quarterback, Matt Schaub, tore their defense up for 460 yards two weeks ago before Jameis Winston passed for 335 yards against them last week. Seattle has played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Over their last three games, the Seahawks are allowing 28.0 PPG along with 423.3 total YPG. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 28.5 PPG — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road. Seattle has also played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow opponents from the NFC West — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total in November. San Francisco has played their last two games Over the Total — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. The 49ers have played outstanding defense this season — they rank first in the NFL by limiting their opponents to just 241.0 total YPG. But the Niners lost the heart and soul of their defense last week with the season-ending chest injury to linebacker Kwan Alexander. San Francisco returns home where they are scoring 35.3 PPG while averaging 423.3 total YPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 7 points. Additionally, the 49ers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against NFC West foes.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total. Hopefully, we will start seeing more Red Zone trips end in touchdowns rather than short field goals (and then maybe our Unders will start seeing some Red Zone drives stall and settle for field goals). Sooner or later, the Regression Gods always reappear! In the meantime, let's stick to solid fundamentals. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-19 |
Vikings v. Cowboys UNDER 48 |
Top |
28-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-3) looks to bounce-back from their 26-23 upset loss at Kansas City last week as a 5.5-point favorite that snapped their four-game winning streak. Dallas (5-3) has won two straight games with their 37-18 win in New York against the Giants last Monday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys preceded their victory on Monday Night Football with a 37-10 win on Sunday Night Football two weeks prior against the Eagles. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 28 points in a victory over an NFC East rival in their last game. Additionally, not only have the Cowboys played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games but they have also played 5 straight Unders after winning two straight games by double-digits. Dallas has had their offense cranking as of late — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. Dallas has averaged 6.6 and 6.4 Yards-Per-Play respectively in each of their last two games — but they have then played 37 of their last 56 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. The Cowboys also rushed for 172 yards last week against the Giants — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Dallas returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite. QB Kirk Cousins will be without wide receiver Adam Thielen who is out for this game with a hamstring injury. Look for the Vikings to run the football to keep the Cowboys’ offense off the field. That will be easier said than done — Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 17.8 PPG and they also rank 6th in the league by giving up just 318.1 total YPG. The Vikings will lean on their defense that ranks 4th by allowing only 17.6 PPG while also ranking 8th by giving up just 320.9 total YPG. Minnesota did allow the Chiefs to average 7.1 YPP — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Vikings have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to 7 points. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total playing on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 encounters Under the Total. Look for this game to resemble the Cowboys prime-time game in New Orleans at the end of September which resulted in a 12-10 score. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-19 |
Chargers v. Raiders UNDER 49 |
Top |
24-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (107) and the Oakland Raiders (108). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-5) has won two straight games after their 26-11 upset win at home over Green Bay on Sunday as a 4-point underdog. Oakland (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 31-24 win over Detroit as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Los Angeles has also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. The Chargers were able to get their ground game going in this game with a simplified rushing attack relying on fewer plays under new offensive coordinator Shane Steichen who replaced the fired Ken Whisenhunt. Los Angeles rushed for 159 yards in that game against the Packers which helped them control the time of possession for 35:51 minutes which kept Aaron Rodgers off the field. Green Bay managed only 184 total yards in that game — and the Chargers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Los Angeles defense has been good once again this season as they rank 8th in the NFL by allowing just 18.7 PPG — and they also rank 8th in total defense by giving up only 322.8 total YPG. Over their last three games, the Chargers are allowing just 16.7 PPG along with only 325.0 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. But now LA goes back on the road where they are scoring only 19.2 PPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The Chargers have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in November. And in their last 11 games played on Thursday Night Football, the Under is 7-3-1. The Under is also 7-3-1 in Oakland’s last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Raiders have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Oakland has seen at least 51 combined points scored in three straight games, they have then played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Raiders defense has allowed at least 388 yards in three straight games after they surrendered 473 yards last week to the Lions. But not only has Oakland played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games but they have also played 10 of their last 12 games at home Under the Total after allowing at least 375 yards in three straight games. The Raiders do play stout against the run as they rank 7th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 92.5 rushing YPG. They stay at home for just their fourth true home game where they are scoring only 21.7 PPG — and they may be without their star right tackle, Trent Brown, who is questionable on this short week with a knee injury. Oakland has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against AFC West opponents — and the Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing fellow AFC West foes. These two teams have also played 5 straight encounters Under the Total. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (107) and the Oakland Raiders (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-19 |
Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 48.5 |
Top |
37-18 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the New York Giants (476). THE SITUATION: Dallas (4-3) snapped their three-game losing streak back on October 20th with their 37-10 win over Philadelphia for Sunday Night Football as a 3-point favorite. New York (2-6) has lost four straight games after their 31-26 loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 6-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under there Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Cowboys are playing outstanding defense this season — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing 17.7 PPG while ranking 8th in the league by giving up just 324.9 total YPG. In their three games on the road, Dallas is holding their home hosts to just 19.0 PPG along with only 301.0 total YPG. But the Cowboys offense slows down when away from AT&T Stadium. Dallas is scoring 27.1 PPG along with 437.9 total YPG this season — but those numbers drop to just 21.0 PPG along with 376.0 total YPG on the road this year. The Cowboys are averaging 454.3 total YPG in their last three games — but they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 450 yards over their last three contests. Dallas did rush for 189 yards in their win against the Eagles — but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. And in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points, the Cowboys have played 6 of these games Under the Total. A bright spot in New York’s loss at Detroit last week was that they held the Lions to only 59 rushing yards. The Giants have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The New York run defense was then fortified at the trade deadline with the Giants acquiring the 300-LB defensive lineman Leonard Williams from the Jets. New York has played much better on defense when playing at home this season — their four visitors are scoring just 17.2 PPG while averaging only 308.2 total YPG. But the Giants are scoring only 17.2 PPG at home in those games while averaging just 308.2 total YPG. New York is also scoring only 20.3 PPG over their last three games while generating a mere 281.0 total YPG in those contests. Not surprisingly given those numbers, the Giants have played 4 straight home games Under the Total. And in their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total in 4 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Cowboys’ 35-17 victory at home over the Giants back on September 8th. The Total was set at 44 in that game with that result being just the second Over in the last seven meetings between these two clubs. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the New York Giants (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-19 |
Patriots v. Ravens UNDER 45 |
Top |
20-37 |
Loss |
-102 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Baltimore Ravens (474). THE SITUATION: New England (8-0) remained undefeated last week with their 27-13 win over Cleveland as a 10-point favorite. Baltimore (5-2) returns off their bye week after winning their third straight game in a row with their 30-16 victory at Seattle as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. New England has covered the point spread in four straight games with all four of those victories being by at least 21 points. The Patriots have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. This is an elite New England defense that is tops in the NFL in allowing just 7.6 PPG along with only 234.0 total YPG. The formula for success in this game is likely to concentrate on stopping the Ravens running game while spying on Lamar Jackson with his ability to run the football while relying on their outstanding cornerbacks to handle the young Baltimore wide receivers in single coverage. On offense, the Patriots are averaging just 342.5 total YPG over their last three games which is -27.4 net YPG below their season average that ranks just 16th in the league. New England has a banged-up offensive line — and they lack reliable deep threats from their wide receivers from a group that has moved on from both Antonio Brown and now Josh Gordon. Remember that the Patriots have scored four defensive touchdowns while adding another two special teams touchdowns this season. Take away those 42 points (with the extra point) — and the Patriots scoring average of 31.2 PPG drops to 25.95 PPG. They face a Ravens team that has not committed a turnover in four of their seven games — so they are unlikely to be gifted the ball the way the Browns, Jets, and Giants have over the last three weeks where New England forced 13 combined turnovers. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when they have won at least six straight games. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road by at least two touchdowns. The Ravens have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has also played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a bye week which includes them playing eight of their last eleven games Under the Total when given an extra day to rest and prepare. This Ravens defense should stuff the Patriots rushing attack and force Tom Brady to beat them with his depleted wide receiving corps — they rank 3rd in the league by allowing only 84.3 rushing YPG. Over their last three games, Baltimore has held its opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 288.7 total YPG. They return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: New England has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and this includes them playing 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in November. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in November — and their likely strategy for this game will be to run the football to keep Brady off the field. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Baltimore Ravens (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-19 |
Texans v. Jaguars OVER 46 |
Top |
26-3 |
Loss |
-117 |
36 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (453) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (454). THE SITUATION: Houston (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 27-24 win over Oakland last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-4) has won two straight contests with their 29-15 win over the NY Jets last Sunday as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Texans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Houston won their game last week despite surrendering 378 yards of offense to the Raiders. The Texans have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Houston’s defense is an issue as they rank 21st in the NFL by allow gin 5.9 Yards-Per-Play — and now they have lost their star linebacker, J.J. Watt, to a season-ending pectoral injury. But this Texans team is winning because of their offense that ranks 4th in the NFL by averaging 395.0 total YPG. Head coach and acting general manager Bill O’Brien was chastised by many for the trade with the Dolphins that brought over Laremy Tunsil but he has played like a top-ten left tackle in the league while stabilizing what has too often been a leaky offensive line for star quarterback Deshaun Watson. Houston generated 388 yards of offense last week — and they have averaged 417 YPG over their last three games. Houston has then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after averaging at least 375 YPG over their last three contests. Now the Texans go on the road to London averaging a healthy 27.2 PPG along with 413.2 total YPG away from home. Jacksonville has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and this includes them playing four of these last five situations Over the Total. The Jaguars outgained the Jets in that game by +176 net yards — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Over the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least 150 net yards. Jacksonville also benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after enjoying a net turnover margin of +2 or better in their last game. And while the Jags have won four of their last six games, they have then played a decisive 50 of their last 78 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Jacksonville is getting very solid play from quarterback Gardner Minshew who is completing 61.9% of his passes while throwing 13 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. He is leading an offense that has averaged 425.7 total YPG when they are playing away from home. Minshew should have success in this Texans defense missing Watt that was already allowing 276.1 passing YPG which is 28th in the NFL. The Jaguars are very familiar with these London road trips with this being their seventh time playing in one of these specialty neutral site games. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the September 15th meeting between these two teams that Houston won at home by a 13-12 score as a 7-point favorite with the Total set at 43.5. The Jaguars have played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 3 points or less. 5* NFL London Calling Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (453) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-19 |
49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5 |
|
28-25 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Arizona Cardinals (302). THE SITUATION: Arizona (3-4-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 31-9 win at New Orleans as an 11-point underdog. San Francisco (7-0) remained undefeated this year with their 51-13 blowout win over Carolina as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. San Francisco is playing elite-level defense this season — they lead the NFL by allowing only 224.4 total YPG while ranking second in the league by allowing just 11.0 PPG. The Niners have not allowed more than 13 points in each of their last four games. In their last three games, San Francisco is allowing just 6.7 PPG and 183.0 total YPG. Furthermore, the 230 yards of offense that the Panthers gained last week was the most that the 49ers have allowed in their last four games — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in at least two straight games. On offense, San Francisco is scoring 29.6 PPG along with averaging 387.3 total YPG — but those numbers drop to a 25.2 PPG scoring mark on the road where their yardage average drops almost 30 yards to 360.5 total YPG. The Niners have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. San Francisco has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Niners have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Arizona has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Cardinals managed only 237 total yards of offense last week against the Saints — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. Arizona returns home where they are scoring only 22.7 PPG — and they have averaged just 308.0 total YPG over their last three contests. The Cardinals have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Arizona has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total when playing in Arizona. 10* NFL San Francisco-Arizona Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Arizona Cardinals (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-19 |
Dolphins v. Steelers UNDER 44.5 |
|
14-27 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). THE SITUATION: Miami (277) has lost their first six games of the season after their 31-21 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 17-point underdog. Pittsburgh (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6-point underdog two weeks ago back on October 13th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Miami has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Dolphins defense did not play too poorly — they held the Bills to just 305 total yards. This unit seems to be improving under head coach Brian Flores as they have held their last three opponents to just 335.3 total YPG. The former New England defensive coordinator also tapped Ryan Fitzpatrick as his starting quarterback last week — and he completed 23 of 35 passes for 282 yards while leading the offense to 381 total yards. But Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But this remains a Dolphins offense that is last in the NFL by scoring only 10.5 PPG and averaging just 258.7 total YPG. Miami stays on the road where they have played 13 of the last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points. The Dolphins have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And while Miami has covered the point spread just twice this season, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Pittsburgh has played a decisive 36 of their last 52 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They also have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. The Steelers are averaging just 276.5 total YPG which is 29th in the NFL. After third-string QB Devlin Hodges was under center against the Chargers, head coach Mike Tomlin has named Mason Rudolph back as the starting quarterback after he cleared the concussion protocol. Rudolph is averaging only 178.3 passing YPG in his three starts this season with the coaching staff not comfortable in risking him taking chances down the field. The Pittsburgh defense has played much better as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG along with only 292.3 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Miami-Pittsburgh ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-19 |
Packers v. Chiefs UNDER 48 |
Top |
31-24 |
Loss |
-104 |
9 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (275) and the Kansas City Chiefs (276). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-1) has won three straight games after their 42-24 win over Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (5-2) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 30-6 win at Denver as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Green Bay surrendered 329 passing yards to the Raiders, they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The improved Packers defense is 9th in the NFL by allowing just 19.9 PPG — and that number drops to just 13.5 PPG in their two games on the road. But the Green Bay offense is scoring only 22.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 274.0 total YPG away from home. QB Aaron Rodgers will likely still be without his top target in wide receiver Davante Adams who is listed as doubtful with his turf toe injury. The Packers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Packers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Chiefs have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least three touchdowns. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes will not be able to play in this game with his knee injury — so it will be Matt Moore under center for this team. While Moore was slid in relief last week by completing 10 of 11 passes for 76 yards, the journeyman is a big drop off in talent from what head coach Andy Reid can do with his offense with the mobile Mahomes under center. Remember, Moore was still on the street unsigned with a team when training camp started. But while Mahomes gets a vast majority of the attention with this team, what has gone under the radar is the improved play of their defense under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Over their last three games, the Chiefs have allowed only 18.7 PPG along with just 336.0 total YPG. KC returns home where they have played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: It has not been often that the Chiefs have played at home with the Total not in the 50s in the Mahomes era. Kansas City has played 51 of their last 80 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them playing 7 of their last 10 home games below the number in that range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (275) and the Kansas City Chiefs (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-19 |
Redskins v. Vikings UNDER 42 |
Top |
9-19 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (101) and the Minnesota Vikings (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-6) enters this short week coming off a 9-0 loss at home in torrential rain against San Francisco as a 10-point underdog. Minnesota (5-2) has won three straight games with their 42-30 win at Detroit last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a victory on the road versus an NFC North rival. Minnesota has also played 6 straight games Under the Total at home after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Ever since Adam Thielen called out quarterback Kirk Cousins to stop being so cautious with his passing, the offense has taken a step to the next level as the Vikings have scored 36 PPG while averaging 480 total Yards-Per-Game over that span. But the Vikings have played 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 30 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after averaging at least 450 YPG over their last three games. Minnesota generated 502 yards of offense against the Lions last week — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Unfortunately for Cousins on this short week, he will not have the services of Thielen who has been declared out for this game with his hamstring injury. Thielen has become Cousins' most reliable target and has already caught six touchdown passes this year — and his absence exposes the lack of the third reliable target after Stefon Diggs with this offense. Head coach Mike Zimmer will want his defense to tighten things up after allowing 433 to Detroit last week. The Vikings gave played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Minnesota ranks 6th in the NFL respectively by allowing 17.6 PPG and just 327.9 total YPG. The Vikings are the only team in the league to finish in the top-four in total defense for three straight seasons. Minnesota returns home where they have played 5 of the last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Washington will struggle to score points tonight as they have scored only 27 combined points over their last four games — and they have not scored more than 17 points in five straight games. The Skins have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The problems start on their offensive line where the team misses left tackle Trent Williams who continues his holdout to escape the franchise. Washington then lacks reliable receivers with tight end Jordan Reed injured once again this season and wideouts Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson not legitimate number one or number two options. The Vikings will feel confident to stuff the box to slow down the Washington rushing attack that interim head coach Bill Callahan has made clear is his priority with his offense. Quarterback Case Keenum is in the bottom-ten in most passing categories this season. The Skins are rank 12.9 PPG this season while averaging 267.6 total YPG which ranks 30th and 29th in the league. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total.
TOTAL DEFENSE: There is talent on the Washington defense who should feel pretty good about themselves after limiting the 49ers offense to just 283 total yards (albeit it in terrible weather conditions). The Skins have played 6 straight games Under the Total including their 33-7 loss to New England for Sunday Night Football back on October 6th. Expect a result similar to that finds a way to stay below the number. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (101) and the Minnesota Vikings (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-19 |
Patriots v. Jets UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
33-0 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the New York Jets (476). THE SITUATION: New England (6-0) comes off a 35-14 win at the New York Giants as a 16.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago back on October 10th. New York (1-4) looks to build off their 24-22 upset win at home against Dallas last Sunday as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Under in that Patriots game against the Giants — and with both teams scoring on a defensive touchdown along with New England blocking a punt for another 6-yard touchdown, that play was spoiled. Where was one more defensive/special teams touchdown in the second half of last night’s game?!? Defensive touchdowns and special teams touchdowns go a long way for results to find the Over. However, it would also be Fool’s Gold to be chasing or expecting non-offensive touchdowns to play a role in the next particular game at hand. The Patriots have scored three defensive touchdowns this season while adding another two touchdowns from special teams. For our purposes, while New England is averaging 31.7 PPG this season — that number drops to just 25.9 PPG when taking away those five non-offensive touchdowns. Surprisingly, the reigning Super Bowl champions have also surrendered three defensive touchdowns this season. That means that while they lead the NFL by a mile by allowing just 8.0 PPG — that number drops to an incredible 4.5 PPG when only accounting for scoring allowed by their outstanding defense. The Patriots are also second in the NFL by allowing only 234.7 total YPG — and they rank second in run defense (73.7 rushing YPG) and pass defense (161.0 passing YPG). Tom Brady completed 31 of 41 passes last week against the Giants for 334 yards while leading the offense to 427 yards — but New England has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards. Brady will not have Josh Gordon and Rex Burkhead as targets tonight with both players being out with injuries. The Patriots stay on the road where they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. New England has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. New York dusted off their real playbook for Sam Darnold last week after first-year head coach Adam Gace put his real offense under wraps after his quarterback was injured in the opening game of the season. Darnold completed 23 of 32 passes for 338 yards while leading the Jets’ offense to 382 total yards — but now Bill Belichick has had a full week to study Gace’s preferred plays. The Jets are still averaging just 205 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not averaging more than 225 total YPG over their last three games. While Darold’s return helps this offense, the Jets are struggling to run the football as they are 31st in the league by averaging just 64.0 rushing YPG. They only managed 56 rushing yards last week with Darnold back under center and they have not rushed for more than 67 yards in their last three games. New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in three straight games. The Jets stay at home for this game where they are only allowing 20.7 PPG. New York gets an appearance on Monday Night Football where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Patriots 30-14 win over the Jets back on September 22nd. New England has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against AFC East opponents — and New York has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against AFC East divisional rivals. These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at the Jets’ MetLife Stadium. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the New York Jets (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-19 |
Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 48 |
Top |
10-37 |
Loss |
-117 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 38-20 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (3-3) has lost three straight games after their 24-22 upset loss at New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last games Over the Total after a point spread defeat. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Eagles are dealing with a host of injuries on defense — and, while corner Jalen Mills appears likely to take the field again tonight, his sidekick, Ronald Darby remains questionable with his hamstring injury. Philadelphia is allowing their home hosts to score 29.7 PPG while averaging 435.0 total YPG. But the Eagles offense did generate 400 yards in defeat last week. Over their last three games, Philadelphia has scored 28.3 PPG. Now they stay on the road where they have played 24 of their last 34 road games Over the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as a small underdog of up to 3 points. The Eagles have also played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have suffered three straight upset losses which should ensure they are feisty with desperation in this contest. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after suffering two straight point spread losses — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after two straight upset losses. The Cowboys offense has sputtered as of late as they have scored only 18.7 PPG in their losing streak — but they are getting healthier again for this game. Left tackle Tyron Smith has been upgraded to probable with his ankle injury — and wide receivers Amari Cooper and Reggie Cobb along with guard Zack Martin have all been upgraded to probable for tonight. Dallas did generate 399 yards of offense last week in defeat — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys return home where they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 511.0 total YPG. But they are also giving up 362.7 total YPG at home which is more than 30 YPG higher than their season average. Dallas has played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 3 points. The Cowboys have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: This is a crucial game for both teams in the NFC East title race — the loser will have an uphill climb to make the playoffs. Philly has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against NFC East foes — and Dallas has played 6 straight games Over the Total against NFC East foes. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-19 |
Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 49 |
Top |
30-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (303) and the Denver Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 31-24 upset loss at home to Houston on Sunday. Denver (2-4) has won their last two games with their 16-0 shutout win over Tennessee as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos stymied the Titans by limiting them to just 204 yards of offense. Despite losing Bradley Chubb to a season-ending injury, Denver still has a loaded defense that should continue to improve under first-year head coach Vic Fangio who is one of the brightest defensive minds in the league. The Broncos are 4th in the NFL by allowing only 307.8 total YPG. Denver is also 7th in the NFL by giving up just 17.7 PPG — and that number drops to 14.0 PPG when playing at home. The Under is 10-1-1 in the Broncos last 12 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Under is 5-0-1 in Denver’s last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Broncos stay at home where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. But this Denver offense is scoring just 17.7 PPG which is 26th in the NFL. They will likely look to run the football to burn time off the clock to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field — the Chiefs have allowed their last two opponents to keep their offense off the field for at least 37 minutes. Additionally, the Under is 7-0-1 in the Broncos’ last 8 games against teams from the AFC West. Kansas City has seen their offense slowed down over the last two weeks where they have gained only 324 and 309 yards. Not being on the field has played a large role — but so too has been the ankle injury to Mahomes which has slowed down his mobility. Furthermore, defenses have taken a page from the Matt Patricia defensive playbook where the Lions found success in playing press man-to-man coverage against the Chiefs wide receivers which has increased the demand on Mahomes to deliver with pinpoint accuracy which is not his strongest suit. The injuries on offense is certainly not helping the Andy Reid offense operate at its highest efficiency. Kansas City is missing two offensive linemen in All-Pro left tackle Jeff Fisher and right tackle Andrew Wylie. And while wide receiver Tyreek Hill returned to the field last week, Mahomes will be without wide receiver Sammie Watkins who is still dealing with a hamstring. The Chiefs have suffered two straight upset losses at home after their 19-13 loss at home to Indianapolis as a double-digit favorite. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after suffering two straight upset losses.
FINAL TAKE: The Kansas City defense is also banged up which has played a role in them surrendering 416.7 total YPG over their last three games. Opponents have amassed at least 180 rushing yards against the Chiefs in four straight games — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in three straight contests. Kansas City has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (303) and the Denver Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-19 |
Lions v. Packers UNDER 47 |
Top |
22-23 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (275) and the Green Bay Packers (276). THE SITUATION: Detroit (2-1-1) takes the field again after their 34-30 loss at home to Kansas City as a 7.5-point underdog two weeks ago back on September 29th. Green Bay (4-1) comes off a 34-24 upset win in Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They also have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total on the road after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And while Detroit allowed the Chiefs to generate 438 yards of offense, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. One of the touchdowns that Kansas City scored was on a 100-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The eye test suggests that the Lions played pretty good defense to slow down Patrick Mahomes. Head coach Matt Patricia has proven himself one of the best schematic defensive coaches in the league — and it is telling that the Chiefs have scored only 37 combined points in their last two games since that game with Detroit. Bill Belichick also used some of the Patricia blueprints in the Lions’ defensive game plan against the Rams in last year’s Super Bowl. Patricia has had two weeks to prepare his defense for the Packers’ offense — and Detroit has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. Patricia has also finally gotten the Lions offense to emphasize the run to make things easier on quarterback Matthew Stafford. Detroit held the ball for 33:55 minutes against the Chiefs and controlling the time of possession to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field will be the formula tonight. The Lions gained 447 yards against Kansas City — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 6games Under the Total after playing on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Packers offense will be limited with wide receiver Davante Adams still out with his turf toe which takes away Rodgers’ most reliable passing target. Look for the Packers to also emphasize the run to take the pressure off Rodgers and their defense that surrendered 563 total yards to the Cowboys. Dallas passed for 441 passing yards in that game — but Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Packers have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 500 or more yards in their last game. There is no question this Green Bay defense has improved with the additions of the Smith brothers in Za’Darius and Preston who were signed as free agents in the offseason. The Packers are 8th in the NFL this season by allowing only 18.6 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and Detroit has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against NFC North foes. Expect a lower scoring game between these two teams that have re-defined their identities to be run-oriented defensive teams. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (275) and the Green Bay Packers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-19 |
Steelers v. Chargers UNDER 42.5 |
|
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) and the Los Angeles Chargers (274). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-4) looks to rebound from their 26-23 loss in overtime last week at home against Baltimore as a 7.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 20-13 upset loss at home to Denver as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Pittsburgh will be down to their fourth-string quarterback from training camp in rookie Devlin Hodges who will be playing for Mason Rudolph who has not cleared the concussion protocol. The Steelers also lost one of their important offensive weapons in Jaylen Samuels who is out indefinitely after suffering a knee injury last week. Pittsburgh managed only 77 rushing yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Now the Steelers go back on the road where they have played 37 of their last 52 games Under the Total — and they have also played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Pittsburgh defense is playing better after a slow start. They have held their last three opponents to just 298.0 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Chargers managed only 246 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Now Los Angeles stays at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers defense has also played better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 319.7 total YPG. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) and the Los Angeles Chargers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-19 |
Giants v. Patriots UNDER 43 |
Top |
14-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (103) and the New England Patriots (104). THE SITUATION: New York (2-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-10 loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog. New England (5-0) returns home after playing their last two games on the road after their 33-7 win at Washington as a 15.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots had plead 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least five games in a row. Additionally, New England has played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. The Patriots have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. New England have one of their best defenses in the Bill Belichick era as they are allowing a mere 6.8 PPG while holding their opponents to just 238.4 total YPG. The Patriots will be leaning on their defense for this game given the injuries this team is experiencing on offense. Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett is out with a hamstring injury while wide receivers Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman are both listed as questionable with a knee and chest injury. The targets for Tom Brady in the passing game were already a big question mark for this team as they transition away from the Rob Gronkowski era. The lack of an elite weapon in the passing game is why the team took a chance on Antonio Brown before he proved to be too much trouble for what he offered. It was the Brown signing that compelled the Patriots to trade away wide receiver Demaryius Thomas early in the season when it looked like they had too many bodies at that position. Now this team could use a reliable healthy body at that position with their first-round draft choice, N’Keal Harry, on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. Brady was still able to complete 28 of 42 passes for 348 yards last week against the Skins en route to 442 total yards of offense — but New England has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game while also playing 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Patriots return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. New York managed only 211 total yards last week with just 147 net yards in the passing game. The Giants were already without star running back Sequon Barkley with his knee injury but the injuries began to mount in that game with the carry-over being significant for this game being played on a short week. Barkley’s backup, Wayne Gallman, is out tonight having not cleared the concussion protocol leaving the rushing duties to Jon Hillman who came off the practice squad a few weeks ago. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones is also without his top two receiving threats in wide receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram as they deal with a concussion and MCL injuries respectively. As it is, the Giants have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 passing yards. New York also allowed 211 rushing yards in that contest — and they have played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: With the Giants riddled with injuries, expect a similar score as their 28-10 loss last week to the Vikings. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing the Patriots in Foxboro. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (103) and the New England Patriots (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-19 |
Browns v. 49ers UNDER 48 |
Top |
3-31 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (477) and the San Francisco 49ers (478). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-2) looks to build off their 40-25 victory in Baltimore against the Ravens last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-0) takes the field again after their 24-20 victory over Pittsburgh as a 6-point favorite back on September 22nd.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The offense under head coach Kyle Shanahan may get the headlines with the Niners 3-0 start — but it is the play of the defense that has led the way for this team. San Fransisco is third in the NFL by holding teams to just 283.3 total YPG — and they are allowing only 18.0 PPG. The 49ers defense has been helped by Shanahan calling running plays in 57% of their plays from scrimmage which burns clocks and keeps that defense fresh and off the field. San Francisco held the ball for 36:17 minutes against the Steelers which helped them limit the Pittsburgh offense to just 239 total yards of offense. The Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers have outgained their last two opponents by +197 and +256 net yards — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +150 net yards in two straight games. San Francisco went into halftime of that game trailing by a 6-3 score — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. Jimmy Garappolo did pass for 277 yards in that contest — but the Niners have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco stays at home for this game where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Cleveland has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over an AFC North rival. The Browns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset victory as a road underdog. That game flew over the 47-point Total — and Cleveland has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Browns have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Cleveland committed to running the football to win on the road against the Ravens — they generated 193 rushing yards en route to their 528 total yards of offense. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Browns’ last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. Cleveland has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: The Browns are scoring just 22.2 PPG this season even after putting up 40 points last week. Expect a lower scoring game tonight with both teams deploying run-first offensive game plans. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (477) and the San Francisco 49ers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-19 |
Colts v. Chiefs OVER 55.5 |
Top |
19-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-2) looks to rebound from their 31-24 upset loss at home to Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained undefeated last week with their 34-30 win at Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Patrick Mahomes had thrown at least two touchdown passes in fourteen straight games before getting shutout from touchdown passes last week against the Matt Patricia-coached Lions defense. Yet the Chiefs still put up 34 points while generating 438 yards of offense. Kansas City has then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Chiefs have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. This Kansas City team under head coach Andy Reid has scored at least 25 points in a remarkable twenty-five straight games. They return home for just the second time this season where they have averaged 32 PPG with Mahomes as their quarterback. The problem for this Chiefs team remains their defense. Kansas City is allowing 259 passing YPG this year. The Chiefs have been even worse with their run defense as opposing rushers are averaging 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry which is translating into 150 rushing YPG. Detroit outgained KC last week with 447 total yards of offense — and the Over is 4-1-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. And in their last 11 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Over is 7-3-1 for Kansas City. Indianapolis will be challenged to slow down Mahomes and the dynamic Chiefs’ passing attack with defensive backs Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers out with injuries. The Colts are allowing 25.5 PPG this season. But Jacoby Brissett has proven himself as a legitimate starting quarterback with over 900 passing yards in his first four starts with 10 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. It looks like Brissett will have the benefit of his wider receiver T.Y. Hilton on the field for this game with the reports indicating he will play despite his quad injury. Indianapolis has played 31 of their last 41 games Over the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. Additionally, the Colts have played 36 of their last 53 games in the month of October Over the Total — and this includes them playing six straight Overs on the road in October.
FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total when playing on a grass field (as opposed to the field turf at Lucas Oil Field). The Chiefs will be hard to stop on offense in this game — don’t be surprised if they approach the 40 point threshold against the banged-up Colts defense. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-19 |
Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 50 |
Top |
29-30 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 9-point favorite. Seattle (3-1) comes off a 27-10 win at Arizona on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Los Angeles defense could not stop Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers offense — they surrendered 464 yards in that game. This team had entered the Week Four having allowed the second-fewest points in the league to the Patriots — and they are still only allowing 330.2 total YPG even after what the Bucs did to them. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Look for head coach Sean McVay to commit to getting running back Todd Gurley involved in this game early. McVay claimed he wanted Gurley to get around 25 touches last week against the Buccaneers — but falling behind early in that game lulled the LA offense into relying on their passing attack. Gurley did not even get his first touch in that game until their fourth possession in the eighteenth offensive play of the game. In fact, Gurley has rushed the ball only 19 times in the first half in the first four games of the season with that mark rising to 30 combined carries in the second half so far this year (with a nice 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry mark). Jared Goff completed 45 of 68 passes in that game for 517 yards — but the Rams only ran the ball 11 times all game for a mere 28 yards. The Rams have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after they attempted at least 50 passes in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Getting Gurley involved earlier in the game will also help Goff sell the play-action pass — he has a low 60 Passer Rating on play-action passes this season because defenses are not taking the bait on the potential handoff to the running back. More running will also help Goff in the passing game where he is not nearly as effective as he is when playing at home. Los Angeles is averaging 298 passing YPG this season with Goff completing 64.2% of his passes while averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt — but those marks drop to just 219 passing YPG into their two road games this season with Goff completing just 61.7% of his passes while averaging just 5.7 YPA. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Seattle rebounded from their upset loss at home to the Saints by being on offense for 33:24 minutes of their game with the Cardinals. The Seahawks will want to continue to control the clock to keep the Rams offense off the field while keeping their defense fresh. Seattle has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Seahawks have scored at least 27 points in each of their last three games — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games. Furthermore, Seattle has averaged 6.78 and 6.18 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last two games — and they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in Weeks 5 through 9.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams will likely look to establish their ground game tonight — and that will burn time off the moving clock. The possibility of thunderstorms may also play a big role in this contest being a battle of the respective rushing attacks. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 encounters in Seattle Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-19 |
Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
3-27 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-3) looks to bounce-back from their 21-17 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh (0-3) remained winless this season with their 24-20 loss at San Francisco last Sunday as a 6-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals fell behind to the Bills by a 14-0 score at halftime while only managing 306 total yards of offense in that game. Cincinnati has then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after trading beat last two touchdowns at halftime in their last game — and the Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. The Bengals have also played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after losing a game where they covered the point spread as the underdog. Furthermore, this team has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing three straight games. The problems with the Cincy offense starts with the ground game. After managing to average 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry against the Bills last week, they actually raised their YPC mark for the season to just 2.4 YPC which remains dead last in the league. The Bengals running backs are not getting much help at all from their offensive line — they are averaging just 0.3 yards before contact which is also last in the NFL. These limitations in their rushing attack have made Cincinnati one-dimensional. Quarterback Andy Dalton is averaging 43.3 passing attempts per game which is well above his previous season-high of 36.6 passing attempts per game. The Bengals stay on the road where the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The defense has also been an issue for this team after they allowed Buffalo to generate 416 yards last week. Cincinnati has played 31 of their last 46 road games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Under the Total after giving up at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Pittsburgh has played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Mason Rudolph struggled in his first start for this team after the season-ending injury to Big Ben Roethlisberger. He completed just 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards against the Niners last week. San Francisco was also able to concentrate on slowing down James Connor — the Steelers managed to rush for only 79 yards on 22 carries last week. Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. With the Steelers struggling with their offensive line, head coach Mike Tomlin will need more from his defense that is better than how they have played this season. The addition of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will certainly help. Pittsburgh surrendered 168 rushing yards along with 268 passing yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Moving forward, the Steelers have played 8 straight games Under the Total after playing a non-conference opponent — and they have also played 38 of their last 56 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh Under the Total. Expect a low-scoring game between these two desperate divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-19 |
Cowboys v. Saints UNDER 48 |
|
10-12 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (275) and the New Orleans Saints (276). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-0) looks to continue their winning ways after their 31-6 win over Miami as a 22-point favorite last week. New Orleans (2-1) comes off a 33-27 upset victory at Seattle as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints scored 33 points last week despite only generating 265 yards of offense. New Orleans ranks just 21st in the NFL by averaging 339.7 total Yards-Per-Game this season with Teddy Bridgewater playing in seven of those twelve quarters after the injury to quarterback Drew Brees. The fact is that the Saints’ potent offense has been waning since Week 13 of last season in their 13-10 loss in Dallas to these Cowboys. After a torrid four-week stretch where New Orleans scored 175 points with a minimum of 31 points in each of those games, New Orleans only scored 31 points one more time for the rest of the season through the playoffs — and they averaged just 19.7 PPG over their final seven games. Two of the Saints’ touchdowns last week came from a 53-yard punt return for a touchdown as well as a 53-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. That production obscures the mere 265 yards of offense they generated against the Seattle defense. New Orleans has then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Saints have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The New Orleans defense has surrendered at least 27 points in all three of their games this season — but they have then played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing at least 25 points in two straight contests. Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Cowboys are allowing just 14.7 PPG along with only 336.0 total YPG. And while they have scored at least 31 points in all three of their games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. The Dallas offense has generated at least 474 yards in all three of their games as well — but they have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in three straight contests. And in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home, the Cowboys have played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: It was a low scoring game the last time these two teams played last November 29th with just 23 combined points scored. Look for both teams to rely on their ground games and emerging defenses. 10* NFL Dallas-New Orleans NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (275) and the New Orleans Saints (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-19 |
Eagles v. Packers UNDER 47.5 |
|
34-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-2) has lost two straight games after their 27-24 upset loss at home to Detroit on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) remained unbeaten on Sunday with their 27-16 win over Denver as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have been hampered by injuries on both sides of the football. They will be without wide receiver DeSean Jackson, defensive tackle Marlin Jackson, linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill, and cornerback Ronald Darby for this game. While the team expects to get wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey back for this game, the offense will miss Jackson who offers the team the deep threat they need to stretch out the opposing defense. Mike Wallace was supposed to fill this role last season — but his season-ending ankle injury limited their offense last year with the late acquisition of Golden Tate not really working as a remedy. Philadelphia averaged only 22.9 PPG which was just 18th in the NFL. The Eagles were also just 17th in the NFL in Red Zone production after leading the league in that level of production in their Super Bowl year. Philly did lead the NFL by averaging 32:25 minutes in time of possession — and controlling the clock to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field will likely be the plan tonight. The Eagles’ offense last week was slowed down by seven dropped passes. Philly did outgain the Lions by +86 net yards but surrendering a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown ultimately served as the difference in that game. The Eagles defense has been playing well despite the injuries. In their two road games this year, they have allowed 22.0 PPG along with just 329.7 total YPG. They have been particularly stingy against the run as they are allowing only 57 rushing YPG on 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. The 87 rushing yards the Lions generated against them was the most they have allowed all season —but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing ads in their last game. Philadelphia has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Green Bay’s defense has been a pleasant surprise for them so far this season. They are tied for third in the NFL with four interceptions and 12 sacks — and the 11.7 PPG they are allowing this season is tops in the NFC. The Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. But the offense has remained a work in progress in the marriage between Rodgers and rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Green Bay is scoring only 19.3 PPG while averaging just 286.7 total YPG which is 28th in the league. Perhaps more tellingly, the Packers are converting on just 25% of their 3rd downs which is 29th in the league. Green Bay is running the ball more in this new offensive system — but they gained only 77 rushing yards on 23 carries last week. The Packers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Green Bay has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the NFC.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total when playing in Green Bay’s Lambeau Field. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Green Bay NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-19 |
Bears v. Redskins UNDER 42 |
Top |
31-15 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-1) looks to build off their 16-14 win in Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Washington (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-21 loss at home to Dallas as a 6-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The biggest problem for this team has been with their offense as they have managed only one touchdown. Third-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looks like he has taken a step back this season — he is completing only 58.3% of his passes. Perhaps in what is more telling, head coach Matt Nagy does not seem to trust Trubisky to move the ball with his arm given his play-calling in the first two weeks of the season. The Bears are averaging a mere 265.3 total YPG this season — and defenses are quickly adapting to the lack of a vertical passing attack given Nagy’s apparent discomfort in enabling Trubisky to take chances down the field. Trubisky’s best passing games last year were at home — so expect another conservative game plan from Nagy tonight as Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. This is likely the smart move given the outstanding defense that the Bears possess. Chicago is 4th in the league in total defense while also ranking 6th in rushing defense — and they have registered seven sacks in their first two games. The Bears held the Broncos to only a field goal in the first half last week — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. Chicago has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Bears did allow 372 total yards last week as they bent frequently to the Broncos while rarely breaking — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total wit the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Bears have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Washington has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two straight games. The Skins are ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football. The offense is on their third quarterback with Alex Smith out the year and Colt McCoy out with a leg injury. Case Keenum is solid but not spectacular — but he lacks dynamic weapons with running back Derrius Guice once again on Injured Reserve with a knee injury and tight end Jordan Reed still in the concussion protocol. And this offense really misses left tackle Trent Williams who continues to hold out — his absence has left the Skins’ offensive line a mess. They gained only 255 yards of offense last week against the Cowboys while rushing for only 47 yards. Washington has attempted only 30 rushing plays this season for a mere 75 yards. The Skins have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Washington was outrushed by -166 yards last week — and they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. The Skins have also played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. Frankly, Washington needs to play better on the defense. Missing Reuben Foster and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who are both injured hurts — but there is still talent on that side of the ball. The Skins have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will be looking to establish their ground game to help put their quarterbacks in better positions to succeed. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). Best of luck for us — Frank. (Follow Frank on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper post regarding what team “identity” means and its connection to have a method for handicapping.)
|
09-22-19 |
Rams v. Browns UNDER 51 |
Top |
20-13 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-0) looks to build off their 27-9 win over New Orleans last week as a 2-point favorite. Cleveland (1-1) comes off a 23-3 win in New York against the Jets on Monday Night Football.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And despite gaining 375 yards of offense last week, the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield is experiencing some growing pains in this offense executing the passing game. He completed only 19 of 35 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown and an interception last week. He is dropping too far deep in the pocket on too many of his passing attempts. And when he stays in the pocket, he is too often bailout out with his left leg in his follow-through which is impacting is accuracy. Both of these bad habits can be attributed to his concerns about the opposing team’s pass rush. One of the big costs in acquiring wide receiver Odell Beckham was that had to ship off their solid right guard, Kevin Zeitler, to the Giants to complete the deal. Mayfield has been sacked eight times already this season — he has been sacked once in every ten pass plays this season as compared to his being sacked once every twenty pass plays last year. Those are ominous numbers when now facing Aaron Donald and this Rams defense. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is one of the best in the business — expect him to take Beckham away as a deep threat while daring Mayfield to be willing to be patient with his targets underneath. The Browns have a dynamic pass rush as well led by emerging star Myles Garrett who already has registered five sacks this season. Cleveland has held their first two opponents to just 300.5 total YPG. They return home where the Under is 15-6-1 in their last 22 games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Browns have also played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Los Angeles is also playing outstanding defense after limiting the Saints to just 244 total yards last week (while knocking Drew Brees out of that game). The Rams have held their first two opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with only 293.5 total YPG. They have become a run-heavy team behind Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown who are both averaging over 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry this season. But this Rams team is being challenged with their depth on their offensive line with a rash of injuries at that position. Rookie Jamil Demby, a sixth-round pick, may have to make his first professional start at right guard for Austin Blythe who is out with a left ankle. The LA offense is not as dynamic on the road where they scored a nice 28.4 PPG last season but averaged only 387.6 total YPG — and that was -4 PPG below their season average along with over -30 YPG less than their overall average. QB Jared Goff averaged 342.1 passing YPG at home last year — but that number dropped to just 238 passing YPG on the road. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have outstanding defenses. Both of these offenses have dynamic playmakers but are limited a bit given the respective state of their offensive lines. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-19 |
Falcons v. Colts UNDER 47 |
|
24-27 |
Loss |
-103 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-1) looks to build off their 24-20 upset win over Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog last Sunday night. Indianapolis (1-1) comes off a 19-17 upset victory of their own at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Atlanta has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Falcons defense played well to shut down the Eagles offense as they allowed only 286 total yards. Philly managed to gain just 49 rushing yards on 21 carries — and the Under is a decisive 61-26-4 in their last 91 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. QB Matt Ryan passed for 320 yards victory — but they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now Atlanta goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total. Last week’s game finished below the 53 point Total as well — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 17 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the game finished Under the Total 11 times. Indianapolis has played 29 of their last 42 games Under the Total after an upset victory as an underdog. The Colts held the Titans offense to just 242 total yards including just 119 yards in the air. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. And while that game fell well below the 43.5 point total, they have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Colts return home for this one where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Indy will want to run the ball to keep the Falcons’ potent offense off the field. They managed only 288 total yards in their victory over the Titans. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon O/U Kickoff with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-19 |
Titans v. Jaguars UNDER 40 |
Top |
7-20 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (301) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (1-1) looks to bounce-back from their 19-17 upset loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a 3-point favorite. Jacksonville (0-2) also looks to rebound from a 13-12 loss at Houston on Sunday as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans managed only 242 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Colts despite playing on their home field. Quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 19 of 28 passes which is efficient — but they generated just 154 passing yards. Tennessee seems to have abandoned all hope in even demonstrating a drop-back passing game with Mariota — and that likely means that the whispers to have Ryan Tannehill replace him under center are legitimate since at least the former Dolphins quarterback can matriculate the football down the field. Defenses are already adapting to these tendencies by crowding the box to slow down the horizontal passing game along with the rushing attack led by Derrick Henry. These are not encouraging developments for an offense that scored only 19.4 PPG last season (27th in the NFL) while averaging just 312.6 total YPG (25th in the NFL). Head coach Mike Vrabel is likely to continue to rely on his defense that was 8th in the NFL last year by allowing only 333.4 total YPG while also ranking 3rd in the league by giving up just 18.9 PPG. The Titans limited Indianapolis to only 288 total yards last week. Tennessee has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game against an AFC South rival. The Titans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against AFC South foes. And in their last 7 road games when favored by no more than 3 points, Tennessee has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Jaguars have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. And in their last 7 games after a point spread victory, Jacksonville has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville is playing with a backup quarterback Gardner Minshew who was solid last week by completing 23 of 33 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass. But as the regular-season game tape begins to accrue on the rookie quarterback from Washington State, Minshew will experience growing pains. And he is a QB who could certainly use the benefit from a full week of practice given his inexperience at the professional level. He led an offense that managed only 281 yards last week. Now the Jags return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Jacksonville has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Head coach Doug Marrone will also be happy to lean on his defense that allowed only 19.8 PPG last year (4th in the NFL) while giving up just 311.4 total YPG (5th in the league). The Jaguars held Deshaun Watson and the prolific Texans passing attack to only 137 passing yards while registering four sacks — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey has requested for a trade this week — but he looks likely to remain on the roster for at least this game and he should be very motivated to play in front of a nationally televised audience as he auditions for his next team.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Jacksonville last season. These two teams split their two meetings last year with the Jaguars winning by a 9-6 score last September 23rd before the Titans avenged that loss on December 6th with a 30-9 victory. Expect another low scoring game. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (301) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-19 |
Browns v. Jets UNDER 46 |
Top |
23-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (289) and the New York Jets (290). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 43-13 upset loss at home to Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (0-1) also looks to rebound from an upset loss in their 17-16 setback at home to Buffalo where they were laying 2.5-points.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets are a hot mess of M*A*S*H Unit right now with a couple of suspensions making this attrition even worse. Quarterback Sam Darnold is out weeks while he loses weight dealing with mono. Wide receiver Quincy Enunwa is on Injured Reserve with a neck issue. Running back Le’Veon Bell is dealing with a bum shoulder. Three starters on the offensive line are questionable. Trevor Siemian will be the starting quarterback tonight — and with check down Charlie in Adam Gase calling the plays, don’t be surprised if the former Denver starting quarterback never throws a pass past the first down marker. Even with Sam Darnold under center last week, the Jets offense managed just 223 yards in their first regular-season under Gase who is the master of 8-yard pickup on 3rd-and-12. The defense is also dealing with some tough injuries headlined by linebacker C.J. Mosely and rookie defensive tackle Quinnen Williams out with a groin and an ankle. But I still expect an inspired effort from this group led by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who will be chomping at the bit to have his defense go after the quarterback he served as the interim head with last season. Bell has been upgraded to probable so expect the Jets to give a healthy dose to the running back as they look to control the clock and keep the Browns’ offense off the field. New York has played 14 of their last 31 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss to an AFC East rival as a home favorite. The Jets have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of September. Gase’s teams in Miami also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total in September — and they played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to a divisional rival. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Browns have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss at home by at least three touchdowns. The Cleveland defense did not play bad last week — they allowed only 339 total yards. But with eighteen penalties that produced another 182 negative yards accompanying a -3 net turnover margin, the Titans were able to put up 43 points on the board. The Browns should respond with a strong defensive effort after all that — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. On offense, Mayfield may not be 100% after suffering a thumb injury in that game. Moving forward, the Under is 5-1-1 in Cleveland’s last 7 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: With both of these teams coming off upset losses last week, the Under is supported by an empirical angle that has been 77% effective over the last ten seasons. In games involving a team that suffered an upset loss facing an opponent that comes off a double-digit upset loss, these games then finished Under the Total in 30 of these last 39 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (289) and the New York Jets (290). Best of luck for us — Frank (follow on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper where he looks back to explain why he, fortunately, passed on a tempting CFB situation on Saturday that perhaps looked too good to be true).
|
09-15-19 |
Eagles v. Falcons OVER 52 |
Top |
20-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (287) and the Atlanta Falcons (288). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 32-27 win over Washington as a 10.5-point favorite. Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 28-12 loss at Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles where slugging on offense in the first half by scoring only 7 points. Perhaps Carson Wentz and company were rusty after not getting much playing time in the preseason — but they exploded in the second half by scoring 25 points en route to 436 yards of offense against an underrated Washington defense. Philadelphia has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles defense also held the Skins to just 28 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 30 rushing yards. But the Philly pass defense was torched by the mighty Case Keenum who passed for 380 yards against them. This is an area of concern for the Eagles after they ranked 30th in the NFL last season by allowing 269.3 passing YPG. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 total yards in their last game. Those are ominous numbers when facing this Falcons team behind Matt Ryan who was 4th in the NFL last year by averaging 290.8 passing YPG. Philadelphia goes on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have also played 13 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Additionally, the Over is a decisive 13-3-1 in the Eagles’ last 17 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Atlanta has played 32 of their last 48 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by at least two touchdowns. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. While putting their rookie right guard, Chris Lindstrom, on Injured Reserve derails some of the plans this team had with their offensive line, Ryan oversaw a potent offense last season even with the deficiencies on their offensive line. The Falcons were 6th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 389.1 total YPG — and they have a healthy Devonta Freeman back in their backfield after he missed all but two games. The Falcons were also burdened with the third-worst starting field position in the NFL with their average starting point at their 26.3-yard line. Atlanta averaged 37.97 Yards-Per-Drive which was 4th best in the NFL. Ryan was more effective at home where he completed 72.7% of his passes while averaging 8.82 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt — and he tossed 18 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. The Falcons scored a robust 29.6 PPG when playing at home last year.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of September. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. Expect a higher scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (287) and the Atlanta Falcons (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-19 |
Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 51 |
Top |
20-14 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) and the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 31-17 upset loss at home to San Francisco on Sunday. Carolina (0-1) comes off a 30-27 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams where they closed as a small +1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Jameis Winston was not magically transformed in his first game under new head coach Bruce Arians as he completed just 20 of 36 passes for 194 yards while throwing three interceptions in that loss to the 49ers. Arians has had success with some big names quarterbacks in the past — but the growth of Peyton Manning did not demonstrate itself until his second season with Arians while Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer did not see their big bumps in play until their third with the coach. The Buccaneers generated only 295 yards of offense in that game with one of their touchdowns coming from a 15-yard interception return. But the encouraging aspect of that loss to San Francisco was the improved play of the defense under first-year defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. After ranking 27th in the NFL by allowing 383.4 total YPG, Bowles defense limited the 49ers to only 256 total yards. This defense had nowhere to go but up after being at the bottom of the league over the last two seasons — but this group was also hit hard by the injury bug as they lost 92 adjusted games to injury according to the analytics (which was the most in NFL history using that measurement). Arians and Bowles also significantly remodeled this defense with draft picks and free-agent acquisitions headlined by bringing in Ndamukong Suh. The Niners put 31 points up on the board but two of those touchdowns came from two pick-sixes surrendered by Winston (which was clearly a topic of conversation with Arians this week). As it is, Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total suffering an upset loss at home by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Bucs have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Panthers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Quarterback Cam Newton was not very impressive in that loss as he completed 25 of 38 passes for just 239 yards with zero touchdown passes and an interception while failing to gain positive rushes with his legs. While head coach Ron Rivera claims Newton is completely healthy, he did injure his leg in the preseason which might be slowing him down now. Furthermore, Newton may not be fully recovered from the shoulder problems from last year which severely limited his effectiveness in the second half of last season — there was talk at one point of the team shutting down their franchise quarterback for the entire season like Indianapolis did with Andrew Luck two years ago. Newton enjoyed a sensational month of October in his first season under offensive coordinator Norv Turner before things went south when the team lost seven of their last eight games with Newton’s arm strength limited with his shoulder injury. But according to the DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders, the Panthers have only ranked in the top-ten in offensive efficiency just once in their last five seasons with their average finish being 16th in the NFL — so this will likely remain a middling offense. Moving forward, Carolina has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games played in Carolina Under the Total. With the Total set in the high 40s, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) and the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-19 |
Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 |
|
16-24 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-0) also looks to better themselves this year after suffering a 6-10 record last season. Oakland (0-0) looks to improve from their 4-12 campaign last season.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos will bring a very good defense into Oakland tonight under first-year head coach Vic Fangio. The former Chicago defensive coordinator is one of the best defensive minds in the business — and Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay both claim that his coverage schemes are the most difficult to decipher. He inherits a defense with great potential after ranking 13th in the NFL by allowing only 21.8 PPG. Over their last three games, the Broncos held their opponents to just 286 total YPG with rookie Bradley Chubb playing very comfortably next to Von Miller at linebacker. Denver will need their defense to play well given that they scored only 13.0 PPG while averaging just 313.7 total YPG over their last three contests. The offense is also undergoing a system change with first-year offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello installing a run/play-action based attack. But the former 49ers’ quarterback coach’s highest experience of calling plays was at the FCS level so there may be some growing pains early on as he gets comfortable with new quarterback Joe Flacco. The hope of team president John Elway is that Flacco will offer the veteran leadership under center that he once did for this franchise which was then replicated with Peyton Manning leading the team a third Super Bowl championship. But Flacco has seen is adjusted net yards per passing attempt decline in each of his last four seasons which raises concerns that the 34-year old has seen a decline in his skills. His lack of mobility in the pocket is also at odds with where many offenses are moving in the modern NFL. Flacco will be working under a retooled offensive line that is replacing 36 starts from last year’s group. The hope is that offensive line coach Mike Munchak will coach this group up — but there are questions regarding the talent level of this unit with left tackle Garrett Bolles being a disappointment in his first two seasons and second-year center Connor McGovern coming off a disappointing rookie season. A slow start is likely for this team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 8 of their last 9 opening weeks to a new season Under the Total. The Under is also 4-0-1 in the Broncos’ last 5 games on the road. Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 opening games to a new season Under the Total. The Raiders also played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as the underdog. The big news for this team is that will not be playing this season with Antonio Brown as their best weapon on offense. Oakland also has issues on their offensive line tonight with both expected starters, Richie Incognito and Gabe Jackson unavailable to play: Jackson is dealing with an MCL injury while Incognito is serving a two-game suspension. That is not good news for an offense that failed to score at least 20 points nine times last year — and they averaged just 15.3 PPG along with 282.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Raiders have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total as an underdog. They also have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: Oakland has played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents — and these two teams have played 5 straight meetings Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-19 |
Texans v. Saints UNDER 53 |
Top |
28-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (479) and the New Orleans Saints (480). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-0) takes the field again after an 11-5 season that ended with a 21-7 loss at home to Indianapolis in the first round of the AFC playoffs. New Orleans (0-0) enter this season coming off a 13-3 campaign that ended in bitter disappointment with the no-call pass interference in the NFC Championship Game that eventually ended in a 26-23 loss in overtime to deny their opportunity to return to the Super Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints averaged 30.4 PPG last season which is one of the reasons that the Total is set in the 50s for this contest. But New Orleans closed out last season playing 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. Over their last three games, the Saints scored only 19.0 PPG while averaging just 334.7 total YPG. It appeared that quarterback Drew Brees tired as the season moved on. But this is also a team that relied on their ground game to burn time off the clock to keep their defense fresh and off the field. This was a possession-based offense under head coach Sean Payton — and this will likely continue tonight with Deshaun Watson the opposing quarterback. It was not just the home stretch of the season where the Saints’ offense slowed down — they averaged only 19.6 PPG over their last seven contests. Another problem for this offense was that it became apparent that the team lacked a reliable third option after wide receiver Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara. The organization attempted to address that situation with the free-agent signing of tight end Jared Cook after his breakout season with the Raiders. Maybe — but Cook was the beneficiary of an offense that lacked significant threats at wide receiver (which is why Oakland signed Antonio Brown and Tyrel Williams at that position in the offseason). The conventional was once that this New Orleans offense thrived when playing on field turf — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on turf. The Saints have also played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Houston started slowly last season as they scored only 19.7 PPG in their first three games of the season. The Under is 8-3-1 in the Texans’ last 12 games in the month of September under head coach Bill O’Brien — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season. Houston also scored only 19.0 PPG over their final three games last season culminating in their disappointing effort at home against the Colts in the playoffs. The offense suffered a big blow with the injury to running back Lamar Miller. Acquiring Duke Johnson was helpful but his skills are more as a receiver than as a rusher — and the recently added Carlos Hyde has failed to stick with his previous three teams in the league. The Texans will lean on their defense that was tied for 4th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.8 PPG. This defense will still be good despite trading away Jadeveon Clowney as this move will allow the talented Whitney Mercilus to take over his role on the defense next to J.J. Watt.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total as the dog getting 3.5 to 7 points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (479) and the New Orleans Saints (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-08-19 |
Steelers v. Patriots UNDER 51.5 |
Top |
3-33 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) and the New England Patriots (478). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-0) looks to get back to the postseason after they were left on the outside looking in after a 9-6-1 campaign last year. New England (0-0) lifted the Lombardi Trophy once again last year with their 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots won the Super Bowl on the strength of their outstanding defense that limited the powerful Rams offense to just 260 total yards. This young unit is only getting better. New England held their last three opponents to only 295.0 total YPG. The Patriots’ defense was also very tough to move the ball against when playing at home in Gillette Stadium where they limited the visitors to only 17.9 PPG along with just 321.2 total YPG. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as the favorite laying 7 or fewer points. But don’t be surprised if the Patriots are not crisp on offense. Tom Brady is adjusting to a new philosophy after the retirement of tight end Rob Gronkowski. It has not been a smooth preseason for Brady in getting comfortable with his wide receivers. Demaryius Thomas has been injured along with rookie first-round draft pick N’Keal Harry. Josh Gordon has been cleared by the NFL to be eligible to play once again in the league but he did not take much part of training camp. And then the team signed Antonio Brown yesterday who will not be eligible to play tonight since the league deadline for rosters this week already passed. As it is, New England uses the first few weeks of the regular season to continue to install their offense — so this will very much be a work in progress. Expect the Patriots to rely on their power running game to keep the Steelers offense off the field (and that will keep the clock moving). New England has played 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new season Under the Total. Pittsburgh had an underrated defense last season that led the NFL with 52 sacks. The Steelers limited their home hosts to just 22.5 PPG last year along with only 325.0 total YPG — and they held their last three opponents to just 311.3 total YPG. This defense will improve with the addition of rookie first-round draft pick Devin Bush who provides them the ball-hawking linebacker they have lacked since the career-ending injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and this includes them playing 9 straight games on the road Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Pittsburgh has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against AFC rivals.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 16th in Pittsburgh where the Steelers pulled off a 17-10 upset win as a 2.5-point underdog. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) and the New England Patriots (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-08-19 |
Giants v. Cowboys OVER 44 |
|
17-35 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) enters the new season looking to improve on a 5-11 campaign last year. Dallas (0-0) has Super Bowl expectations after a 10-6 regular season before losing in Los Angeles to the Rams in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs by a 30-22 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys scored 24.4 PPG while averaging 365.2 total YPG last season. Much of those numbers were without the services of wide receiver Amari Cooper who they acquired midseason from the Raiders. The former Alabama star was just what the Dallas offense needed as it provided quarterback Dak Prescott a legitimate target who could still get open against the opposing teams best man-to-man defender. The Cowboys scored 27.3 PPG while averaging 369.0 total YPG in their last three games of the season. Cooper’s presence also forces opposing defenses to not play eight defenders in the box to slow down running back Ezekiel Elliott who is back with the team this week after being given his new contract despite two years remaining on his deal. The initial plan is for Elliott to play 20 to 25 snaps — and he should be effective since it is pretty seamless for running backs to get back into the flow of the offense even without much practice time. Dallas has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home. The Cowboys have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow opponents from the NFC East. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against NFC foes. The Giants offense will center around Saquon Barkley who was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year by rushing for 1307 yards while averaging 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The last time we saw the Cowboys run defense, they allowed the Rams (even with an injured Todd Gurley) to rush for 273 yards on 48 carries for a robust 5.69 Yards-Per-Carry average. While it would be foolish to read too much into preseason numbers, I am not ignoring how efficient the Giants’ offense was in the preseason with all four of their quarterbacks under center in the second year under offensive coordinator Mike Shula. New York led all teams in the preseason with nine touchdowns and 119 total points while averaging 305.5 passing YPG and 393 total YPG. Shula’s schemes were working — I do not expect this offense to suffer from the sluggishness that we saw on Thursday from both the Packers and the Bears after their offensive starters did not play much in the preseason. QB Eli Manning got plenty of reps in August after playing in the first three preseason games. While the hype around rookie Daniel Jones intensified, what has continued to go under the radar is the fine season Manning enjoyed last year where he completed 66% of his passes for 4299 passing yards with 21 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions in what was one of the best statistical seasons of his career. Golden Tate will not be available in this game given his PED suspension for the first four regular-season games but Sterling Shepard is listed as probable despite his thumb injury — and tight end Evan Engram is poised for a breakout season in his third year in the league. The Giants have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing in Dallas. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-05-19 |
Packers v. Bears OVER 46 |
|
10-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (451) and the Chicago Bears (452). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) looks to improve on a disappointing 6-9-1 campaign last year. Chicago (0-0) enters the new season looking to build off their 12-5 season that culminated in their heartbreaking 16-15 loss in the NFC Wildcard playoff game at home in Soldier Field against Philadelphia where a missed field goal that hit the uprights cost them the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It may be surprising to some that the oddsmakers have installed the Over/Under for this game to begin at 46 (or higher) in most locations. The Bears only had three games all of last season where the Total was set at 46 or higher. Chicago led the NFL last year by allowing just 17.7 PPG. The DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders to measure defensive efficiency ranks that Bears’ defense last season as one of the ten best ever since 1998. And while there are good reasons to be bullish on the defense again this year with Khalil Mack taking part in a full offseason, negative regression remains highly likely. Historically dominant defenses more often than not find it difficult to maintain that uber-elite level of play. Chicago ended opposing drives with an interception in 14.8% of their drives which was not only the best mark in the NFL but the highest mark in the last four seasons. This defense is simply not likely to kill as many drives with interceptions this year. This defense suffered four big losses in the offseason. The first two were with their coaching staff with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio taking the head coaching job in Denver with him taking defensive backs coach Ed Donatell with him. Donatell is an outstanding skills development coach. Sean McVay considers the Fangio defenses the most difficult to scheme against given the sophisticated ways he disguises his coverages. Remember, Fangio was the defensive architect for those outstanding 49ers defenses in the Jim Harbaugh era. Chuck Pagano takes over as defensive coordinator — and while he had good defenses in his tenure as the coordinator in Baltimore, only one of his six defenses in his tenure at Indianapolis ranked in the top half of the NFL. Chicago also lost two good players in their secondary in strong safety Adrian Ames and nickel back Bryce Callahan. Ames was the best tackler in their secondary while Callahan provided elite slot coverage skills. Replacements Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Buster Skrine are serviceable but still downgrades in talent. On offense, second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky did his best work at home where he led an offense that scored 26.7 PPG while averaging 365.7 YPG which was over +20 net YPG above their season average. Trubisky enjoyed an encouraging sophomore campaign in the league where he made significant strides after a shaky rookie campaign under NFL Coach of the Year Matt Nagy. Over his last four regular-season games, Trubisky averaged a nice Passer Rating of 102.4. He should have success against this Packers defense that Football Outsiders ranked as fourth-worst in the NFL last year with their metrics. This unit did add Ames from the Bears via free agency to bolster their secondary — but this group has also seen attrition with them cutting veteran defensive lineman Mike Daniels and then losing starting linebacker Oren Burks to a pectoral injury. Green Bay drafted Rashan Gary as the 13th pick in the first round of the NFL draft — but he struggled in training camp while adapting to a new position at outside linebacker which is a strange way to deploy a player who was at best at Michigan when playing defensive tackle. The Packers allowed their home hosts to score 29.4 PPG last year while averaging 374 total YPG. But the Green Bay offense should see significant improvement in an updated offense of rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Rodgers has a down year last season while clearly fed up with previous head coach Mike McCarthy. But don’t underestimate the negative impact of the knee injury he sustained early in the season. With a chip on his shoulder in the aftermath of the McCarthy dismissal, Rodgers looked poised for a big bounce-back season. The Packers averaged 383 YPG on the road last year which was over 10 YPG more than what they averaged at home in Lambeau Field. Green Bay has played a decisive 37 of their last 55 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Packers have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog getting no more than 3 points. Additionally, Green Bay has played 11 of their last 14 games over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Packers have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total in the month of September — and this included them playing seven of their last 8 opening weeks to a new season Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Despite being slowed with that bum knee last year, Rodgers was careful with the football as he only threw two interceptions. His sound decision making helps explain why these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 meetings in Chicago Over the Total. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (451) and the Chicago Bears (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-19 |
Patriots v. Rams OVER 56 |
Top |
13-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
169 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: New England (13-5) has reached the Super Bowl for the third straight year along with fourth time in the last five seasons with their 37-31 win in overtime at Kansas City as a 3-point underdog. Los Angeles (15-3) earned the right to play them with their 26-23 upset win in overtime in New Orleans as a 3-point underdog. Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will host Super Bowl LIII.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: In theory, these are two teams that like to run the ball first to establish their passing game. Both these teams have two of the best offensive lines in the NFL. New England lacks a dynamic deep threat after they lost the services of wide receiver Josh Gordon. Los Angeles has evolved into a power run team with the addition of C.J. Anderson to complement running back Todd Gurley. Yet even if this is a low scoring game early on, I expect the final score to reach the Over. In part, because this game shapes up to be very competitive, the closeness of the game should push the scoring up. And as things get more desperate as the game gets into the 4th quarter, both teams’ passing games should take over. We certainly got burned in the AFC Championship Game with New England going into the 4th quarter with a 17-7 score before 38 combined points were scored to ruin our Under play. The Patriots scored 31 points in regulation away from the Meadowlands in less cold weather while reaching 524 total yards of offense after their overtime touchdown drive. Offensive proficiency like that from Tom Brady typically is a sign that New England should be able to keep their offense clicking on all cylinders. The Patriots have played 53 of their last 79 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 34 of their last 52 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. New England has also played 40 of their last 61 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Patriots also lit up the good Chargers defense for 41 points in their 13-point win in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points in two straight contests. The extra week of preparation should help Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels scheme for the Rams defense as they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with two weeks of preparation. Additionally, the Patriots have played 7 of their last 8 games in the playoffs Over the Total. This Super Bowl will feature two defenses that are middle of the pack — the metrics from Football Outsiders ranks New England 16th in the league in defensive DVOA while the Rams rank 19th in that metric. The Patriots allowed 24.8 PPG when playing away from home this season while Los Angeles gives up 24.0 PPG overall for the year. The Rams should dial up a great offensive game plan to take advantage of the Patriots defense that could not stop the Chiefs in the 4th quarter. Los Angeles has played 18 of their last 29 games Over the Total when playing with two weeks of rest and preparation. The Rams got sensational play from Jared Goff in the second-half of their victory over the Saints. Goff completed 25 of 40 passes for 297 yards after leading his team to their game-winning field goal in overtime. Los Angeles has then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. And while the Rams have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is in the high-50s for this Super Bowl — but that is warranted given the ideal conditions in the dome stadium and the high level of proficiency from both these offenses. Expect a high-scoring game. 25* NFL Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. For those interested in Super Bowl Props, I will have my Betting Card for a Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet (offering the best value relative to the odds), and my top Long Shot Bet by Saturday (2/2) with it being attached as a Free Bonus to a Saturday (and Sunday) College Basketball play).
|
01-20-19 |
Patriots v. Chiefs UNDER 57 |
Top |
37-31 |
Loss |
-109 |
45 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: New England (12-5) reached the AFC Championship Game last Sunday with their 41-28 win at home over the LA Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite. Kansas City (13-4) has won their last two games after their 31-13 win over Indianapolis last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Patriots’ 43-40 win against the Chiefs in Foxboro back on October 14th as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While an Arctic blast will not be hitting Arrowhead Stadium for this game, the temperature will still be in the 20s during this game to produce less than ideal conditions for both offenses. It is telling this is the highest over/under number for a game with the temperatures expected to be below 30 degrees since the Patriots played the Packers at Lambeau Field back on 2014 which New England lost by a 26-21 score. It would be foolish to take the Under only because that Under came through — but that comparison does underscore that the number is unseasonably high despite these weather conditions. This rematch is unlikely to approach the 83 combined points that were scored in Foxboro. The Patriots scored just under 10 points more than their season average at home in Foxboro for that game — but they see their scoring drop to just 21.6 PPG on the road. They have only scored 28 or more points once away from home this year. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road while also playing 14 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. New England’s lack of a vertical threat on offense after the loss of wide receiver Josh Gordon will make moving the ball much more difficult this time around. They ate up a KC defense in that first meeting that allows 34.3 PPG on the road — but that number plummets to just 17.4 PPG at home which is tied for the third-best mark in the NFL. The noise of the Arrowhead home crowd certainly helps to disrupt opposing offenses snap counts and the ability of opposing quarterbacks to call audibles at the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs’ pass rush thrives at home as well — they lead the NFL with 34 sacks at home and a pressure rate of 36.9% as compared to their 25.9% pressure rate on quarterbacks on the road which ranks only 26th in the league. Kansas City has played 19 of their last 27 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Chiefs have also played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Kansas City has scored at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. Don’t underestimate what Belichick will be able to do to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ defense in this rematch — and his experience coaching games in cold weather will likely make the challenge on the young quarterback even more difficult. Mahomes was tearing up the league by averaging 9.34 Yards-Per-Attempt in the first eleven weeks of the season — but defenses have caught up a bit since he has seen that number drop to 7.6 YPA in his last six starts.
FINAL TAKE: While 83 combined points were scored between these two teams in their first meeting, this rematch should seem far fewer points this time around. 25* AFC Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-19 |
Rams v. Saints UNDER 57.5 |
|
26-23 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (14-3) has won three straight games with their 30-22 win over Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. New Orleans (14-3) reached the NFC Conference Championship Game with their 20-14 win over Philadelphia last Sunday as an 8.5-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Saints’ 45-35 win in New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog back on November 4th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles ran the ball 48 times for 273 yards in their win over the Cowboys which allowed them to control the Time of Possession for 36:13 minutes of that game. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Since Jared Goff suffered disappointing games against Chicago and Philadelphia, head coach Sean McVay has transitioned the offense into a run-oriented team. In their last four games, Los Angeles has run the ball in 131 of their 212 offensive plays for a 61.7% of their plays some scrimmage. It is likely that McVay will want to continue this commitment to running the football. Rushing the football also allows them to take full advantage of their offensive line that might be the best in the NFL. The late-season acquisition of running back C.J. Anderson has given them a power back that is a nice complement to Todd Gurley. Controlling the Time of Possession can help keep the New Orleans crowd out of the game while keeping Drew Brees off the field. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on the road. Los Angeles has held their eight home opponents to just 19.9 PPG along with only 338.4 total YPG. The Rams defense has been even better since the return of cornerback Aqib Talib. While LA was allowing 30.8 PPG while surrendering 272.6 passing YPG in the games they have played this season without an injured Talib on the field, those numbers improved significantly to them allowing just 17.8 PPG along with only 206.3 passing YPG with Talib healthy and supporting Marcus Peters as the second starting cornerback. Furthermore, the Rams have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. New Orleans gained 425 yards in their victory over the Eagles last week. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Saints have also evolved into a control the clock offensive team that was best embodied by an eighteen play drive in the 3rd quarter against Philadelphia that lasted over 11 minutes. New Orleans held the football for 37:15 minutes which helped them hold the Eagles to just 250 yards of offense — and only 100 yards over the final three-quarters of that game. This zeal to control Time of Possession is one of the reasons why the Saints have averaged just 19 PPG over their last eight games. Their defense should get some of the credit for the drop in the Saints’ scoring numbers as well since head coach Sean Payton does not have to game plan to reach 30 points to have a chance to win. Throw out that Week 17 game with the Panthers and the Saints have allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last eight contests while holding seven of those opponents to under 17 points. New Orleans is second in the NFL by allowing just 80.2 rushing YPG — and they rank 3rd in the league by limiting opposing rushers to just 3.98 Yards-Per-Carry. The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: While the first meeting between these two teams was one of the highest-scoring games of the season, this rematch profiles differently with both offensive head coaches enamored with the prospect of controlling Time of Possession by sustaining longer drives. With the number again in the high-50s, expect a lower-scoring game. 10* NFL LA Rams-New Orleans O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-19 |
Eagles v. Saints OVER 50.5 |
Top |
14-20 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-7) has won four straight games with Nick Foles under center after their 16-15 upset win at Chicago last Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) closed out their regular season with a 33-14 upset loss to Carolina as an 8-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Week Eleven meeting between these two teams back on November 18th where the Saints destroyed the Eagles in the Superdome by a 48-7 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Saints’ head coach Sean Payton had the luxury of resting most of his key starters in that loss to the Panthers. The New Orleans starters have essentially had three weeks off to get rested and ready for the playoffs — and this is a team that has played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total when coming off a bye week. This team is getting healthy again with the biggest boost being with the return of left tackle Terron Armstead whose shoulder injury played a big role in Brees’ mini-slump late in the season. The Saints’ offense is a machine when at home — they average 34.1 PPG while putting up over 400 yards of offense this season. Brees has an impeccable 21:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when playing at home while averaging 9.54 Yards-Per-Attempt as compared to his 11:4 ratio and 6.88 YPA marks on the road. New Orleans has played 21 of their 30 games Over the Total at home — and the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Saints have played 6 straight playoff games at home Over the Total. They face a Philadelphia defense has been decimated with injuries — and while the three new defensive backs that were exposed in the first meeting between these two teams have developed, that does not change the fact these three players remain NFL-level backup players with size and/or speed deficiencies now facing Drew Brees again. Four of the last five opponents that the Eagles have faced have generated at least 300 passing yards. Brees will be facing a defense that has allowed their last four of their last five opposing quarterbacks to average 11.6 Yards-Per-Attempt while throwing five touchdown passes of over 20 yards in the air. Brees has an impeccable 128.6 Passer Rating of passes of at least 20 yards in the air this season. Philadelphia has simply been exposed by good offenses. In their six games against playoff teams during the regular season, the Eagles surrendered 28.8 PPG with that number rising to a 33.3 PPG mark when playing on the road as compared to the 17.5 PPG they held their twelve opponents who did not make the playoffs with that mark actually falling to 16.8 PPG surrendered when playing non-playoff teams on the road. I do expect the Nick Foles-led offense to keep pace with the Saints scoring as the New Orleans defense gives up 25.6 PPG along with 373.4 total YPG when playing at home. Besides the calming presence Foles apparently provides his teammates in the huddle, a big strength he provides to head coach Doug Pederson and this Eagles offense is his quick decision-making and release. In this last four-game stretch, Foles is averaging just 2.2 seconds per pass attempt which is the fastest rate in all the NFL during that span. This skill is liberating the Philly offensive coaching brethren to get creative with their play-calling. The Eagles’ offensive line has responded as well — Foles is seeing a clean pocket in 70.4% of his passing plays over their last four games in a metric that is even more impressive considering that they played the ferocious Bears’ defense and three other defenses that rank in the Top 15 in sacks. Philadelphia has played 22 of their last 30 games on the road Over the Total — and this includes them playing five of their last seven home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road and four of their last five games Over the Total when playing on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: I don’t think the Saints get to 48 points again today — but they should approach their 34.1 PPG scoring average when playing at home. The Philly offense will be much better in this rematch — and I see them scoring in the 25.6 PPG range that the Saints are giving up at home. If both those projections are accurate, we get our Over with room to spare. 10* NFL Philadelphia-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-19 |
Chargers v. Patriots UNDER 48 |
|
28-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (305) and the New England Patriots (306). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (13-4) has won six of their last seven games with their 23-17 upset win at Baltimore last week as a 3-point underdog. New England (11-5) has won two straight games to close out the regular season with their 38-3 win over the New York Jets as a 14.5-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 6 straight games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Los Angeles’ decision to deploy seven defensive backs maximized their speed on the field — and it stymied the Baltimore innovative rushing attack behind rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. Look for similar six and seven defensive back schemes against the Patriots this week. Tom Brady’s physical skills have (finally!) begun to decline — and they lack a dynamic deep threat with the loss of wide receiver Josh Gordon. Patriots’ tight end Rob Gronkowski has also seen a significant decline in his skills. The Chargers can sub defensive backs for linebackers and let Brady dink-and-dunk them to death — which means long scoring drives and a running clock helping our Under. The Los Angeles defense ranks 8th in the NFL by allowing only 20.6 PPG while also ranking 9th in the league by giving up just 333.7 total YPG. Over their last three games, the Chargers are giving up only 16.0 PPG along with just 320.0 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. The Patriots generated 375 yards of offense in their last game against the Jets — but they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. New England has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Patriots have allowed only 32 combined points over their last three games with none of those three teams scoring more than 17 points. The New England defense is very stingy at home as they hold their guests to just 16.6 PPG along with a mere 319.5 total YPG — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total at home. Bill Belichick has done a great job of containing Rivers as well. In his last four starts against the Patriots, Rivers has led his team to only 17.0 PPG. And to compound matters, even more, he is facing a New England defense that leads the NFL by playing man-to-man in 57% of their defensive snaps. All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore may be enjoying his best season — he has allowed the second fewest yards after catch this year. He will make things very difficult for wide receiver Keenan Allen. And Rivers averages 7.99 Yards-Per-Attempt against man-to-man coverage this season as compared to his 9.55 YPP mark against zone defenses. Rivers has seen his production decline as of late — he only has one touchdown pass in his last three games. Over that span, the Chargers are scoring just 18.7 PPG over these last three games while average just 239.0 total YPG. Rivers has averaged just 153.7 passing YPG in those last three games with a Passer Rating of only 55.2. In this team’s first fourteen games, they averaged 28.2 PPG along with 392.0 total YPG with Rivers averaging 270.1 passing YPG and posting a 112.4 Passer Rating.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 encounters Under the Total. Playing in cold weather in the 20s, expect another lower-scoring game. 10* NFL LA Chargers-New England CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (305) and the New England Patriots (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-12-19 |
Cowboys v. Rams OVER 48 |
Top |
22-30 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (303) and the Los Angeles Rams (304). THE SITUATION: Dallas (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last Saturday with their 24-22 win over Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (13-3) takes the field again after their 48-32 victory over San Francisco two weeks ago to close out their regular season.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Los Angeles should the pace-setters when it comes to scoring in this game as they average a robust 37.1 PPG along with 453.2 total YPG when playing at home. The Rams have played 4 straight home games Over the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 29 of their last 44 home games Over the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 7 point range. But defense has been a concern for this team who allows 28.1 PPG on their home field along with 378.7 total YPG. The Cowboys should be able to run the ball against the Rams’ defense that ranks just 23rd in the NFL by allowing 122.2 rushing YPG. LA allows opposing rushers to average 4.88 Yards-Per-Carry — so Ezekiel Elliott has a good opportunity to have his running the football. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas enters this game having won eight of their last nine games — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Cowboys have also played 5 of the last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Dallas generated 380 yards of offense last week in their victory over the Seahawks — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Over their last three contests, this Cowboys offense that was jumpstarted with the acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper has averaged 29.0 PPG. But their vaunted defense has surrendered 25.7 PPG along with 374.3 total YPG over those last three games as well. The Dallas pass defense has declined down the stretch of the season after peaking in that big Thursday night win when they hosted New Orleans. Since that victory in Week 13, the Cowboys have allowed opposing passers to complete 65.1% of their passes while averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. These opposing QBs have thrown 7 touchdown passes with just one interception while the Dallas defense has registered only seven sacks in those last five games. The Cowboys rush defense has also struggled as of late when playing on the road. In their last four road games, Dallas has allowed 105.5 rushing YPG along with a 5.02 Yards-Per-Carry average against the middling rushing attacks of Atlanta, Philadelphia, the NY Giants and Indianapolis. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: This should be a competitive game — so look for Dallas to keep up with the Rams’ offense that should be rested and ready for this showdown. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (303) and the Los Angeles Rams (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-12-19 |
Colts v. Chiefs UNDER 57 |
Top |
13-31 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs with their 21-7 upset win at Houston last Saturday as a 2-point underdog. Kansas City (12-4) closed out their regular season with a 35-3 victory over Oakland back on December 30th as 14.5-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: My first point is my last argument — as of this writing, there is a 90% of precipitation with the high in Kansas City being the mid-30s. If there is snow, that very much helps our Under play with the number currently set in the high-50s. I recommend getting down on this play ASAP — because if flurries appear, this number will go down. That said, even if there is no snow during this game, the Under is a strong play (and it is a strong play with a lower number if it does, in fact, snow). Cold weather does not help passing games with quarterbacks and receivers playing with cold hands and less than ideal conditions — remember the Rams playing in chilly Chicago for Sunday Night Football last month. Patrick Mahomes had three of his five games where he failed to generate at least 300 passing yards in the cooler December weather. The Chiefs’ offensive numbers dipped a bit over their last three games as they scored 31.3 PPG while averaging 374.0 total YPG which was 4.0 PPG and over 50 YGP below their season averages. Mahomes may also have some jitters and rust with the extra week off before making his playoff debut — and it does not take many failed drives to make the Over with this high Total unlikely. The Kansas City defense is not great — but they were significantly better at home where they held their opponents to just 18.0 PPG/354.7 YPG as compared to the 34.3 PPG/456.3 YPG they surrendered when playing on the road. The tendency for games played at Arrowhead Stadium trend strongly to the Under as those tickets are 49-22-1 in the last 72 games played there. The Under is also 16-7-1 in KC’s last 24 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total in the playoffs. Indianapolis has played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road as an underdog. The Colts generated 422 yards of offense in that game — but they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Quarterback Andrew Luck has been great all season — but he has thrived at home where he is completing 70.7% of his passes with that number dropping to a 64.2% mark when playing on the road. Wide receiver certainly sees his production decline when playing outside where he averages 24.8 receiving YPG — and he is slowed with an ankle injury still. Indianapolis has played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when playing a winning record at home. The Colts formula for success will likely be to run the football to burn clock and keep Mahomes off the field — especially when playing in a hostile environment. They score only 23.9 PPG when playing away from home. Indy holds their home hosts to scoring just 20.9 PPG — and they have held their last three opponents to only 17.0 PPG along with 324.0 total YPG. Indianapolis should be able to slow down Kansas City offensive juggernaut living life now without running back Kareem Hunt as they are 8th in the NFL by allowing 101.8 rushing YPG — and they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry.
FINAL TAKE: Defenses have caught up a bit with the explosive Chiefs offense — but the Total remains historically high for this divisional round playoff game. Indy wants a shorter game to put Luck in a position to outduel Mahomes — and that is a formula for the Under. And if there is snow, both of these offenses might slow significantly down. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-19 |
Eagles v. Bears UNDER 42 |
|
16-15 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (107) and the Chicago Bears (108). THE SITUATION: Chicago (12-4) has won four straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 24-10 upset at Minnesota last week as a 6-point underdog. Philadelphia (9-7) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six games with their 24-0 win at Washington as a 6-point favorite last week to sneak into the playoffs with that Vikings loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset win as an underdog. The Bears have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they held the Vikings to just 63 rushing yards last week, Chicago has then played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, while the Bears have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of the last five games. This Chicago defense is outstanding — they are holding their opponents to less than 1.5 points-per-drive while forcing a turnover in almost 20% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank first in the NFL by allowing only 17.7 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the NFL by giving up just 299.7 total YPG. Furthermore, over their last three games, the Bears are allowing only 12.0 PPG along with just 255.3 total YPG. Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 4 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Bears have played all 4 games Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 12 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Eagles outrushed the Skins by 108 net yards, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 100 yards in their last game. But this Eagles’ offense tends to stall if they cannot establish a credible rushing attack — and they are now facing the NFL stingiest run defense in the league as the Bears allow only 80.0 rushing YPG. Philadelphia has only scored more than 24 points twice in their eight road games this season — and they have yet to play a defense as stout as this Chicago unit. The Bears have the personnel to not have to blitz Nick Foles and drop back linebackers into pass coverage. Last year’s Super Bowl MVP has struggled when facing zone defenses against which he averages just 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt with zero touchdown passes with three interceptions and five sacks — as compared to his 10.6 YPA mark against man-to-man defense with 5 five touchdown passes, zero interceptions and just one sack. Foles too often becomes a dink-and-dunker as he is last in the NFL by averaging a mere 6.7 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Lastly, the Under is 5-2-1 in the Eagles’ last 8 games in the month of January.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles will have trouble scoring against this stout Bears’ defense. But the Bears are likely to struggle to move the ball as well with Mitchell Trubisky playing in his first playoff game. The weather looks to be in the low-40s with it pretty windy at 15 Miles-Per-Hour which might impact his deeper passes down the field. Chicago also has a host of injuries at wide receiver — and while Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, and Taylor Gabriel are all listed as probable, their effectiveness for today’s game remains in doubt. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Chicago NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (107) and the Chicago Bears (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-19 |
Chargers v. Ravens UNDER 42 |
Top |
23-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (105) and the Baltimore Ravens (106). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (12-4) has won five of their last six games with their 23-9 win at Denver as a 7-point favorite last week. Baltimore (10-6) has won three games in a row with their 26-24 victory over Cleveland as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. This is a rematch of the Ravens’ 22-10 upset victory in Los Angeles back on December 22nd as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have seen the Under go a decisive 35-15-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Under is also 10-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 15 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Chargers have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Los Angeles defense is one of the best in the league by allowing just 20.1 PPG which is 8th in the NFL — and that number drops to 19.8 PPG when playing on the road. The Chargers have a huge benefit in facing the new run-dominant Ravens offense two weeks ago. It is a challenge to prepare for this Baltimore offense since practice squads do not have players that can adequately replicate rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson’s skill set. In this quick turnaround rematch, look for the Chargers’ defense to stay committed to assignment football which is the most effective way to slow down these wishbone style rushing attacks. Don’t be surprised if Los Angeles also has their defensive backs employ inside presses along while running some corner or safety blitzes to put the pressure on Jackson. The rookie has completed only 17 of 34 passes when facing a blitz this season while getting sacked 5 times. The Chargers should force Jackson to beat him with his arm — and he was not adept in his college career in accurately delivering fade route passes that he should be forced into making this afternoon. 115 of Jackson’s 185 pass attempts this season (68%) have been no longer than 10 passing yards — so daring him to execute medium and longer passes should be the order of the day. However, a problem for the Chargers has been that their offense has been sputtering as of late after suffering their worst points and yardage games for the season in each of the last two seasons. 7 of their points last week against the Broncos were from an 18-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown — and their only touchdown the previous week against the Ravens was from a short drive after recovering a fumble at the 17-yard line. Quarterback Philip Rivers has thrown for less than 220 yards in three of his last four starts while tossing six interceptions over his last three games. To compound matters, Los Angeles will be traveling east to play this 1 PM ET game with their body clocks thinking it is 10 AM (with me). The Chargers have played two straight games Under the Total — and they have then played 7 straight road games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. And while LA has only allowed two field goals in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. And while the Broncos gained 370 yards against them last week, the Chargers have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Baltimore gave up an uncharacteristic 426 yards last week to the Browns — but they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Cleveland only had 56 offensive plays in that game which was 10.6 snaps below their season average. One of the benefits of the Ravens’ commitment to running the football is burning time off the clock. Baltimore has averaged 45.1 rushes per game in the seven games that Jackson has started — and this has correlated to opposing offenses averaging 10.9 fewer offensive plays during that span. The Ravens have the best statistical defense in the NFL by allowing 292.0 total YPG and they rank second in the league by giving up only 17.9 PPG. Over their last three games, Baltimore has allowed just 15.3 PPG along with only 288.3 total YPG. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Under the Total when playing at home — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games in the month of January.
FINAL TAKE: This game features two good defenses that just faced the respective offenses two weeks ago. Combine that dynamic with a Chargers team that likes to control Time of Possession facing a Baltimore team obsessed with controlling the clock — and the result is a great formula for the Under. 25* AFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (105) and the Baltimore Ravens (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-19 |
Seahawks v. Cowboys OVER 42 |
Top |
22-24 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-6) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 27-24 win over Arizona as a 14-point favorite last week. Dallas (10-6) has also won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests with their 36-35 victory in New York against the Giants as a 7.5-point underdog. This is a rematch of the Seahawks 24-13 win at home in Seattle as a 2-point favorite back on September 30th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Seattle has become a power running team that has averaged at least 28 rushing attempts per game since Week Two. But this team’s ability to burn time off the clock does not necessarily translate into a bunch of Unders. The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against NFC rivals — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. This running of the football sets up their play-action passing which they deploy in 32% of their pass attempts which is the second most in the NFL — and they are sixth in the league by averaging 8.8 Yards-Per-Play from play-action. The Cowboys are vulnerable against play-action passing — they have only seen in it 21% of their opponent’s pass attempts but they are in the bottom half of the league by allowing 7.9 YPP against play-action. Play-action also sets up QB Russell Wilson to throw the deep ball — and he ranks second in the NFL by averaging 15.6 YPP when throwing at least 16 yards past the line of scrimmage. The Seattle play-action game is so dangerous because opposing defenses have to commit to slow down their rushing attack that leads the NFL by averaging 160.0 rushing YPG. The Seahawks trio of running backs of Chris Carson, Mike Davis and Rashard Penny combine to average 4.6 YPC. The Cowboys’ defense has allowed 26.0 PPG along with 398.0 total YPG over their last three games. Seattle has averaged 29.3 PPG along with 380.0 total YPG over their last three contests. They go on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 31 of their last 46 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. The Seahawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in the playoffs. Dallas has played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Cowboys will have a rested Ezekiel Elliott who got last week off to mend and rest for this game. They managed just 51 rushing yards last week — but they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Dallas is getting as healthy again on their offensive line with Tyron Smith, Connor Williams and Zack Martin all upgraded to probable for this game. The Cowboys should be able to find success running the football against this Seahawks defense that has allowed opposing rushers to average 5.13 Yards-Per-Carry since Week Nine. Dallas gets to host this game where they score 25.0 PPG while averaging 363.4 total YPG. Of course, the Cowboys season numbers on offense are skewed down because their acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper transformed their offense by offering QB Dak Prescott a legitimate number one wide receiver target — and the mere threat of Cooper down the field opens the running game up for Elliott. In their three-game homestand from Thanksgiving until the second Sunday in December against Washington, New Orleans, and Philadelphia, Dallas averaged 429.3 YPG which demonstrates the positive impact Cooper had on their offense. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 45 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams seem likely to be able to move the ball running the football — and that will open up their respective passing attacks. This shapes up to be a close game — and the urgency of this single-elimination playoff game should push the scoring into the high-40s. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-19 |
Colts v. Texans UNDER 48.5 |
|
21-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (101) and the Houston Texans (102). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-3 win over Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (10-6) has won four straight games after they defeated the Titans in Tennessee last Sunday night to clinch the final wildcard spot in the AFC. These two teams will be meeting for the third time: the Texans won the first matchup on September 30th by a 37-34 score as a 1-point favorite before the Colts won the rematch on December 9th by a 24-21 upset score despite being a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Indianapolis has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a victory over a fellow AFC South rival. And while the Colts generated 436 yards in that contest, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. While QB Andrew Luck gets most of the attention, their defense has been playing quite well as of late. Over their last three games, Indy is allowing just 14.7 PPG along with only 314.0 total YPG. In their last eight games, the Colts are allowing just 74.6 rushing YPG while limiting opposing rushers to only 3.47 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Indianapolis stays on the road where have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Colts have also played 7 of their last 9 playoff games on the road Under the Total. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and in their last 15 games against AFC South rivals, the Colts have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC South opponents. The Texans have also played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Houston stays at home for this game where they are holding their visitors to just 17.0 PPG along with only 327.2 total YPG. The Texans are 3rd in the league by limiting their opponents to just 82.7 rushing YPG. But Houston is averaging only 333.0 total YPG over their last three games which is -29.6 net YPG below their season average. The Texans leaky offensive line is taking a toll on quarterback DeShaun Watson as he has been sacked a whopping 32 times over his last seven starts. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. While the first game between these two teams was a shootout, the second game in Houston saw 45 combined points. Look for the defenses to have a small net advantage in the third meeting between these two teams. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Houston O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (101) and the Houston Texans (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-18 |
Colts v. Titans UNDER 43.5 |
|
33-17 |
Loss |
-104 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (321) and the Tennessee Titans (322). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-6) has won four straight games with their 25-16 win over Washington last Saturday where they failed to cover the -11.5-point spread they were laying as the favorite. Indianapolis (9-6) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 28-27 win over the Giants as a 10-point favorite. This is a de-facto playoff game for both teams: the victor wins the AFC South title and plays next week in the AFC playoffs while the winner goes home.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Indianapolis generated 402 yards in that contest against the Giants — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Indianapolis allowed Eli Manning and the New York offense to gain 392 yards in that contest — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Colts are playing great defense as they have held their last five opponents to just 16.0 PPG along with only 333.0 total YPG. They go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Indianapolis has valued 23 of their last 29 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Tennessee has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. The Titans stay at home for this game this week — and they have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last week’s game at home. Tennessee is second in the NFL by allowing only 18.0 PPG — and that number drops to just 16.9 PPG when they are playing at home. The Titans have held their last three opponents to a mere 8.0 PPG while limiting them to just 269.0 total YPG. The 16 points that Washington scored last week was the most that this defense has allowed in three straight games. Tennessee has played 3 of their last 4 home games Under the Total as the underdog. This team will also be looking to avenge a 38-10 loss to the Colts back on November 18th. The Titans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least four touchdowns to their opponent — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss.
FINAL TAKE: The Tennessee offense received a bad piece of news with this afternoon’s announcement that QB Marcus Mariota would not be able to play given his concerning stinger injury. They will be relying on Blaine Gabbert as their starting quarterback — and that likely will be all the more reason for them to rely heavily on Derrick Henry and their ground attack which helps our Under with the running clock. Expect a lower-score game. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Tennessee NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (321) and the Tennessee Titans (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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