04-27-22 |
Bulls v. Bucks UNDER 218 |
Top |
100-116 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (553) and the Milwaukee Bucks (554) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Chicago (47-39) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing by a 119-95 score at home to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (54-32) has a 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago lost their second-best offensive player yesterday when Zack LaVine once again tested positive for COVID — he is out for tonight’s game. The Bulls will also be without Alex Caruso who is in the concussion protocol. Chicago will miss Caruso’s contributions on defense — but the net effect of losing both players is a net loss on the offensive end of the court. As it is, the Bulls are only scoring 94.2 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs which is the second-worst of all the teams in the first round of the playoffs. They are making just 39.8% of their shots in this series which is generating only 94.0 Points-Per-Game. Chicago has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home to a Central Division rival. And while they have lost seven of their last nine games, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Now they go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Bulls have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total. And in their last 20 games against division opponents, Chicago has played 16 of these contests Under the Total while scoring just 102.4 PPG in those 20 games — but allowing only 105.1 PPG. Milwaukee has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points on the road. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Bucks will continue to playing without Khris Middleton who scored 20.1 PPG and averaged 5.4 Assists-Per-Game. Milwaukee has stepped up to nail 43.2% of their 74 shots from behind the arc in their last two games. The Bucks shoot 36.4% from 3-point range at home — so the Regression Gods are likely to make a visit. Milwaukee made 52.3% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting mark in their last seven contests. The Under is 15-5-2 in the Bucks’ last 22 games in the playoffs when favored. They have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total against Central Division rivals.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight Unders when playing in Milwaukee. Chicago has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road when avenging a 20-point loss at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points. 25* NBA Central Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (553) and the Milwaukee Bucks (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-22 |
Hawks v. Heat UNDER 216 |
|
94-97 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (539) and the Miami Heat (540) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (46-42) has lost three of their last four games after their 110-86 loss at home to the Heat as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Miami (56-30) has a 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss to a Southeast Division rival — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss to a divisional opponent. Miami has stymied Trae Young and this Atlanta offense that likes to get most of their points in the half-court. The Hawks led the NBA by scoring 101.1 points per 100 possessions in the half-court in the regular season — but they are scoring just 92.1 points per 100 possessions in the postseason which is second-to-last of all sixteen teams that made the playoffs. The Heat are defending Young with double and triple teams and preventing him from driving into the paint. Young has taken more shots from 3-point land than inside the arc in this series — and his teammates are not offering enough help. Bogdan Bogdanovic is only making 23.6% of his 3s in this series and Kevin Huerter is hitting just 27.2% of his 3s. Now Atlanta goes on the road where they have played 8 games Under the Total as an underdog. Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. They will be without Jimmy Butler tonight who is out with knee inflammation. Butler has been outstanding in this series by scoring 30.5 Points-Per-Game with the Heat posting an Offensive Rating of 131.2 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. His absence complicates matters for this team when they have the ball since point guard Kyle Lowry is out as well. Without either player, head coach Erik Spoelstra really only has Gabe Vincent as a reliable ball-handler and initiator of the offense. Miami has played 4 straight Unders when favored — and they have played 33 of their last 45 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight Unders. With Butler out and the Heat stymying the Hawks’ half-court, expect another lower-scoring game. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (539) and the Miami Heat (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-22 |
Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 213.5 |
|
77-102 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (535) and the Dallas Mavericks (536) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (51-35) evened this series at 2-2 with their 100-99 victory against the Mavericks as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Dallas (54-32) has still won six of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. Dallas has also played 27 of their last 42 games at home Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, the Mavericks have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last eight games, they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Dallas goes back home where the Under is 47-20-1 in their last 68 games — and they have played 20 of their last 31 home games Under the Total when favored. The Mavericks have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Utah has seen the Under go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 49 of their last 71 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less. They hit the road again where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Dallas.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss of three points or less. 20* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (535) and the Dallas Mavericks (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-23-22 |
Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 |
Top |
118-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (517) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (518) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (58-27) won their second straight game in this series with their 104-95 victory against the Timberwolves as a 2-point road favorite on Thursday. Minnesota (48-38) blew a 26-point lead in the game and now trail 2-1 in this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Taylor Jenkins has made an important adjustment in this series which should generate lowering-scoring games. After the Timberwolves scored 130 points in their 13-point upset victory, Jenkins only played big man Steven Adams for less in three minutes in Game Two with the Grizzlies holding Minnesota to 96 points. Adams did not play in Game Three. Karl Anthony-Towns was too much for Adams to defend — but Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke have been a handful for Towns to handle. Towns scored only 8 points on Thursday while taking a mere four shots from the field. The T-Wolves scored just 12 points in the fourth quarter in their historic collapse which was the biggest blown lead in loss in the history of the NBA playoffs. Memphis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 105 points. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after holding their last two opponents to no more than 100 points. The Grizzlies are a very good defensive team who ranked sixth in the NBA by holding their opponents to scoring just 108.9 points per 100 possessions — and they are better on that end of the court when benching Adams (while losing his significant offensive contributions). Memphis is fourth in Offensive Rating this season — but they score -2.0 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road at a 112.3 rate, dropping to tenth in the league. The Grizzlies have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They have also played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, Memphis has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Minnesota is seventh in the NBA by scoring at a 113.8 points per 100 possession rate — but their offensive efficiency at home drops to 111.8 points per 100 possession rate which is 19th in the league. The Timberwolves are scoring just 95.5. Points-Per-Game in the last two games in this series — and now their leading scorer, Anthony Edwards, might be slowed with a knee injury. Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The pace has slowed down in this series — and that is likely to continue. Memphis averages 94 shots per game — but they attempted only 83 shots on Thursday after taking 86 and 92 shots in the first games in this series. Minnesota averages 91 shots per game — but after taking 90 shots in Game One with Adams still in the rotation, the T-Wolves took only 76 shots in Game Two and 85 shots in Game Three. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games in Minnesota Under the Total. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (517) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-22 |
Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 216 |
|
114-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the New Orleans Pelicans (506) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-19) comes off a 125-114 loss at home to the Pelicans as a 9.5-point favorite on Tuesday. New Orleans (39-47) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns will miss Devin Booker who is out for at least two weeks with the Grade One hamstring injury he suffered in Game Two. Booker is the team’s best offensive player with a 26.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average with a 47% shooting percentage and a 38% clip from behind the arc. He also average 4.8 Assists-Per-Game. Phoenix scores 10 fewer points per 100 possessions without Booker on the court — and, surprisingly, they hold their opponents to 5.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when Booker is not playing. As it is, the Under is 20-5-1 in the Suns’ last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. They have also played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Under is also 15-5-1 in their last 21 games when playing with two days of rest. Phoenix goes on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. The Under is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 34-15-2 in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. And in their last 8 games played with two days of rest, the Pelicans have played 7 of these games Under the Total. New Orleans has allowed the Suns to nail 50% of their shots in both of the first two games in this series. They have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after posting a defensive field goal percentage of at least 50% in their last two games. The Pelicans are dominating the boards — they have out-rebounded Phoenix by 20 and 10 boards in Games One and Two. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning the rebounding battle by at least 10 rebounds in their last two games.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when avenging a loss in a road game. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the New Orleans Pelicans (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-22 |
Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 223 |
|
111-81 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Chicago Bulls (504) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-32) looks to rebound from a 114-110 upset loss at home to the Bulls as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday. Chicago (47-37) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: With the series-ending MCL strain to Khris Middleton on Wednesday, the Bucks lost their second-best player who made significant contributions on both ends of the court. But Middleton’s impact will probably be felt more on offense. Middleton is the chief ball-handler for Milwaukee — especially with George Hill still out with his abdominal injury — and he is the team’s second-leading scorer with 20.1 Points-Per-Game scoring average. He also dishes out 5.4 Assists-Per-Game. Without Middleton, the Bucks lack a reliable scorer to complement Giannis Antetokounmpo — especially when playing on the road. The Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Milwaukee has also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Under is 4-0-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 playoff games when they are favored. And in their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Milwaukee has played 15 of these games Under the Total. Chicago has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bulls are only posting a 100.0 Offensive Rating in this series — but they have held the Bucks to just a 101.5 Offensive Rating. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. Milwaukee has also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss where they were a home favorite laying at least 10 points. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Chicago Bulls (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-18-22 |
Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 222.5 |
Top |
106-126 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the Golden State Warriors (546) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (48-35) looks to rebound from their 123-107 loss in the opening game of this best-of-seven series. Golden State (54-29) has won six games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors made 52.4% of their shots on Saturday while nailing 16 of their 35 shots from behind the arc. Stephen Curry returned from injury to play over 21 minutes and score 16 points. But it was Jordan Poole who led the way with 30 points on 9 of 13 shooting. Overall, Golden State scored a scorching 129.4 points per 100 possession rate. With Curry rejoining Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Poole, the Warriors are a dynamic scoring team. But it is too much to expect consistent performances like what they did to the Nuggets on Saturday. The Regression Gods are likely coming for this team tonight. While they are a great outside shooting team, a clip more like their 37.2% shooting percentage from behind the arc when playing at home is more likely tonight. And while Curry is a cheat code who unlocks scoring opportunities for others when he is not knocking down 3-pointers, Golden State scored at a 114.1 points per 100 possession rate with him on the court this season — so Game One’s numbers were definitely a high-end outlier. But the Warriors should play better on the other end of the court after allowing the Nuggets to make 46.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven games. Golden State is second in the NBA by holding their opponents to 107.6 points per 100 possessions — and much of those numbers were generating without an injured Draymond Green. They held their opponents to more than 3 fewer points per 100 possessions with Green on the court in the regular season. The Warriors were also third in the NBA by limiting their opponents to scoring at just a 91.2 points per 100 possession rate in the half-court where Denver does most of their damage via Nikola Jokic. Golden State has played 35 of their last 57 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — including 14 of their last 21 games after a win by 10 or more points. The Warriors have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning six in a row. And in their last 23 games when playing for just the second time in five days, they have played 17 of these games Under the Total. In their last five games at home in Chase Arena, Golden State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They have also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 220 or higher. Denver should play better on defense as the 52.4% field goal percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Nuggets have issues on defense — but their starting five does hold their opponents to just 106.5 points per 100 possessions which would rank second in the league if compared to overall regular season averages. Perhaps head coach Michael Malone will adjust by shortening his bench even more. The Warriors made Jokic work very hard on both ends of the court on Saturday. He scored 25 points but he also took 25 shots from the field. Green will continue to make his life difficult. While he did not play in any of the four games in the regular season between these two clubs, Green had held Jokic to just 15.7 Points-Per-Game with a 47.9% field goal percentage in his previous 18 games in his career to defend him. The Nuggets lack a reliable secondary scorer to complement Jokic with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. still out with injuries. Denver only got to the rim for 20% of their shots in Game One — the Warriors may be able to reduce Denver to mostly a jump-shooting team. The Nuggets score 2.1 fewer PPG on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: While Game One finished Over the Total, these two teams have still played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games in Golden State Under the Total. 25* NBA Monday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the Golden State Warriors (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-17-22 |
Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 224.5 |
Top |
99-110 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (531) and the Phoenix Suns (532) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (38-46) has won seven of their last ten games after their 105-101 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1.5-point on Friday. Phoenix (64-18) has lost four of their last six games after their 116-109 upset loss as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have proven they can ramp up their intensity on defense in the postseason after holding their two opponents in the Play-In Tournament to just 40.9% shooting which has resulted in just 102.0 Points-Per-Game. New Orleans has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 33-16-2 in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. The Pelicans stay on the road to begin this series where the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. New Orleans has also played 25 of their last 34 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Phoenix allowed the Kings to nail 52.6% of their shots last week with their key players resting — that was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Under is 19-6-1 in the Suns’ last 26 games after a straight-up loss. Phoenix has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. The Suns play outstanding defense — they rank third in the NBA by holding their opponents to just 106.6 points per 100 possessions. They host this game where they have played 4 straight Unders when favored. They have also played 25 of their last 40 games Under the Total in the with the Total set in the 220s. Additionally, the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on March 15th with the Suns winning in New Orleans by a 131-115 score as a 4.5-point favorite. The Pelicans have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total when playing on the road attempting to avenge a home loss — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games on the road when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (531) and the Phoenix Suns (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-15-22 |
Pelicans v. Clippers UNDER 217 |
|
105-101 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (511) and the Los Angeles Clippers (512) and Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (37-46) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 113-103 win against San Antonio as a 5.5-point favorite in their first play-in game on Wednesday. Los Angeles (42-41) saw their five-game winning streak end with a 109-104 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog in their first play-in game on Wednesday. The winner of this game plays at Phoenix in Game One of the Western Conference Quarterfinals on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 33-16-2 in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. Now New Orleans goes on the road where the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Los Angeles held the Timberwolves to just 43.4% shooting which was the fifth straight game that they have not allowed an opponent to shoot better than 44.2% from the field. The intensity of jockeying for playoff positioning along with the return of Paul George has resulted in the Clippers raising their level of play on defense. They have won six of their last eight games — and they have then played 7 of their last 11 contests Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. And while this is just their sixth game in the last 14 days, Los Angeles has played 28 of their last 42 games Under the Total when playing for not more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. The Clippers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. With the news this afternoon that Paul George is out after his positive COVID test, the Under remains a solid 10* play. George led the team in scoring on Wednesday with 34 points on 10 of 24 shooting — and he nailed 6 of 12 shots from behind the arc. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (511) and the Los Angeles Clippers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-10-22 |
Warriors v. Pelicans UNDER 221.5 |
|
128-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (561) and the New Orleans Pelicans (562). THE SITUATION: Golden State (52-29) has won four straight games after their 100-94 victory as a 7-point favorite yesterday. New Orleans (36-45) had their two-game winning streak snapped yesterday in a 141-114 loss at Memphis as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams made the Western Conference playoffs — maintaining (or establishing) their intensity on defense should be important as they look forward to the postseason. The Warriors are dialed-in on the defensive end of the court after holding their last five opponents to just 41.4% shooting which has resulted in them allowing just 102.0 Points-Per-Game. Golden State needs to win tonight to ensure they are the third seed in the Western Conference — with the advantage of avoiding a potential showdown with Phoenix until the conference finals. The Warriors have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Golden State had covered the point spread in their previous four games — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. On the road, the Under is 22-9-1 in their last 32 games when favored — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Golden State has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. New Orleans played their worst defensive game in their last 14 games after allowing the Grizzlies to nail 58.9% of their shots yesterday. It was the third straight game where they allowed their opponent to make at least 51.3% of their shots. The Pelicans have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to score at least 125 points — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after their last two opponents made at least 50% of their shots. New Orleans is locked in as the ninth seed and one of the Play-In Tournament games — but this is no time to not worry about improving their play on defense. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. The Pelicans have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Brandon Ingram is questionable tonight with a hamstring injury — and if he does not play, New Orleans will be without one of their top two scorers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in the Big Easy. 10* NBA Golden State-New Orleans TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (561) and the New Orleans Pelicans (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-05-22 |
Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 231.5 |
Top |
127-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (567) and the Chicago Bulls (568). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (48-30) has lost two games in a row with their 118-112 upset loss to Dallas as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Chicago (45-33) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 127-109 loss to Miami as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks allowed the Mavericks to make 51.3% of their shots on Sunday — and that was after they allowed the Los Angeles Clippers to nail 60.9% of their shots on Friday in a 153-119 upset loss at home as a 3.5-point favorite. Milwaukee was without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, and Brook Lopez against the Clippers but they returned to the court on Sunday. With the playoffs looming and playing against a potential first-round opponent in the Bulls, this game is a good opportunity for the reigning NBA champions to re-embrace playoff intensity on the defensive end of the court. As it is, the Bucks have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Milwaukee has also played 4 straight Unders after losing two straight games at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after getting upset at home in their last two games. With Lopez back on the court after missing much of the season injured, he offers the team their best interior defender. His post-up ability also slows down their offense when they get into their half-court offense. With the potential of earning the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs still viable, the Bucks have plenty to still play for in the regular season. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. They have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Chicago allowed the Heat to nail 53.7% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. They should tighten things up on defense tonight in this Central Division showdown. The Bulls have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. After a great start to the season, the Bulls have cooled off significantly — and a rash of injuries has not helped matters. The Bulls have lost nine of their last fifteen games whole posting a 110.3 Offensive Rating during that span, ranking 28th in the league. They are making only 46.5% of their shots with a 33.2% shooting mark from behind the arc in their last 15 games as compared to their 48.0% field goal percentage and 36.8% clip from 3-point range for the season. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bulls have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago will be looking to avenge a 126-96 loss in Milwaukee on March 22nd — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a 20 point loss. These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Chicago. The Bulls have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against Central Division opponents — and the Bucks have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow divisional rivals. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (567) and the Chicago Bulls (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-29-22 |
Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 232 |
|
118-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (549) and the Philadelphia 76ers (550). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (46-28) had their two-game winning streak end with their 127-102 loss at Memphis as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Philadelphia (46-28) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 114-104 loss at Phoenix as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played three straight Unders after their game with the Grizzlies finishing Under the 233 point total. Milwaukee has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The 76ers allowed the Suns to make 51.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. And while they only shot 41.6% from the field themselves, that was still the highest field goal percentage in their last four games. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight home games Under the Total when favored. They have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 220 or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The 76ers have also played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (549) and the Philadelphia 76ers (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-28-22 |
Kings v. Heat OVER 216.5 |
|
100-123 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (537) and the Miami Heat (538). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (27-48) has won two straight games with their 114-110 upset victory at Orlando as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Miami (47-28) lost their fourth game in a row with their 110-95 loss to Brooklyn as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Kings pulled off their upset against the Magic by holding them to just 42.5% shooting from the field which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. Sacramento has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Despite the recent success, this team is in the tank with the playoffs most likely out of reach. De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis have both been put on the shelf with injuries — and Josh Jackson is not playing tonight with an injury. The effort on defense has not been as strong as of late — they have allowed their last five opponents to 49.1% shooting which is generating 121.4 Points-Per-Game for them. They stay on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to make 48.8% shooting which is resulting in 117.2 PPG for their home hosts. Sacramento has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Kings have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. Miami’s 95 points on Saturday was the lowest-scoring output in their last eight contests. They have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Injuries have played a role in their recent losing streak — and Caleb Martin is still out with Tyler Herro and P.J. Tucker questionable. The attrition has impacted their play on defense as their last five opponents are making 48.1% of their shots which has resulted in them giving up 112.0 PPG. They stay at home where they have played 41 of their last 57 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Miami will be looking to avenge a 115-113 loss at Sacramento back on January 2nd. The Heat have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (537) and the Miami Heat (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-21-22 |
Wizards v. Rockets OVER 233 |
Top |
97-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (533) and the Houston Rockets (534). THE SITUATION: Washington (30-40) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 127-119 win against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Houston (17-54) has lost five games in a row with their 122-98 loss to Memphis as a 12.5-point underdog yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wizards’ losing streak likely played them out of a spot in the postseason — and their play on defense has illustrated their loss of ambition. Washington allowed the Lakers to make 52.7% of their shots which was the seventh time in their last eight games where they allowed their opponent to make at least 50% of their shots. Washington has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. The Over is 14-3-1 in the Wizards’ last 18 games after a win — and they have played 5 straight Overs after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. Houston only made 43.0% of their shots against the Grizzlies which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last ten contests. The Rockies have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a loss by 10 or more points on their home court. The Over is 21-10-1 in Houston’s last 32 games after a point spread loss — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing without a day of rest. They stay at home where the Over is 13-6-1 in their last 20 games at home — and the Over is 17-8-1 in their last 26 home games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and Washington has played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. 25* NBA Monday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (533) and the Houston Rockets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-19-22 |
Lakers v. Wizards OVER 227.5 |
|
119-127 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (583) and the Washington Wizards (584). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (30-40) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 128-123 upset win at Toronto as a 9-point underdog last night. Washington (29-40) has lost six games in a row after losing to New York by a 100-97 score as a 6-point underdog last night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wizards only made 43.0% of their shots last night in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 12 contests. But Washington remained competitive with the Knicks because New York only made 34.4% of their shots which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 57 games. The Wizards had seen each of their previous six opponents make at least 50% of their shots — so that effort last night probably says more about the Knicks than it does about a sudden improvement in the play of the Washington defense. The Wizards have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing their third game in four days. They return home where the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games — and they have polled 13 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 220 or higher. Additionally, Washington has played 5 straight Overs at home as an underdog — and they have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. LeBron James is doing everything he can to carry this team into at least a Play-In game opportunity in the postseason. This team is not nearly as good on defense as they were last year. Their last five opponents have made 47.9% of their shots which has resulted in 122.9 Points-Per-Game. The Lakers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total in non-conference play. 10* NBA Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (583) and the Washington Wizards (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-22 |
Bulls v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 |
Top |
110-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (543) and the Utah Jazz (544). THE SITUATION: Chicago (41-27) lost their sixth game in their last eight with their 112-103 upset loss at Sacramento as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Utah (42-26) has lost two of their last three games with their 117-111 upset loss to Milwaukee as a 2-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulls have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. They have also played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. DeMar DeRozan has cooled off as of late with his shooting as he is making only 40% of his shots in his last eight games. Zach LaVine is not 100% with his knee. But while Chicago still misses the defensive presence of Lonzo Ball, they did get back Alex Caruso who gives them a boost on that end of the court. The Bulls stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s. The Under is also 13-5-1 in Chicago’s last 19 games on the road as an underdog. They have also played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Utah has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in at least three straight games. The Jazz will be without their second-leading scorer tonight with Bojan Bogdanovic out with a wrist injury. They stay at home where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games when favored. Utah has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on October 30th when the Bulls upset the Jazz at the United Center by a 107-99 score. That game finished well below the 219 point total — the Under is now 21-7-1 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (543) and the Utah Jazz (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-08-22 |
Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 230.5 |
|
111-132 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (583) and the Memphis Grizzlies (584). THE SITUATION: New Orleans Pelicans (583) had their four-game winning streak snapped after a 138-130 loss in overtime at Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (44-22) has lost two of their last three games after their 123-113 upset loss at Houston as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have been playing better defense as of late — they are holding their opponents to 101.3 points per 100 possessions in the last two weeks. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 4 straight Unders after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last contest. The 54.0% shooting clip that the Nuggets put up on them was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. They stay on the road where the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Memphis allowed the Rockets to make 52.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 47 games. Expect the Grizzlies to play much better on that end of the court tonight as their Defensive Rating ranks seventh in the NBA. Memphis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Grizzlies can struggle to score if they do not get transition scoring opportunities — they rank just 23rd in the league by scoring only 92.5 points per 100 possessions. The Pelicans are seventh in the league with their opponents averaging 14.8 seconds per possession — so they do a good job of slowing teams down. Memphis returns home where the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games — and the Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 home games when favored. The Grizzlies have also played 33 of their last 46 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be looking to avenge a 121-109 loss at home to Memphis on February 15th — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when their opponent scored at least 110 points in the win. The rematch is in Memphis where these two teams have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total when facing each other. 10* NBA New Orleans-Memphis TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (583) and the Memphis Grizzlies (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-22 |
Clippers v. Lakers OVER 221.5 |
Top |
105-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (517) and the Los Angeles Lakers (518). THE SITUATION: The Los Angeles Clippers (30-31) went into the All-Star break winning three of their last four games after their 142-111 win against Houston as a 10.5-point favorite last Thursday. The Los Angeles Lakers (27-31) snapped a three-game losing streak to go into the All-Star break with a 106-101 upset victory against Utah as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have been playing higher scoring games this month with head coach Tyronn Lue relying on Reggie Jackson and Terance Mann to give the team more minutes. Jackson and Mann give the team a boost on the offensive end of the court. The Clippers have a 50.6% field goal percentage in their last five games which has generated 112.2 Points-Per-Game. But that duo is not as effective on the other end of the court. The Clippers may rank seventh in the NBA in Defensive Rating — but they are just 20th in that metric this month. Not surprisingly, the Clippers have played 6 of their last 8 games this month Over the Total. The Over is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And while the Clippers have covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. This team remains without their big two in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George — and they will be without their recent acquisition from Portland in Norman Powell who is out with a toe injury. Moving forward, the Over is 5-1-1 in the Clippers’ last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games as an underdog. The Lakers will be without Anthony Davis tonight as he is dealing with an ankle injury. That means more small-ball with LeBron James playing at the five position. The Lakers will likely try to play at a fast pace relying more on Russell Westbrook’s athleticism (with the hope he can finally break out of his “slump” — they are ride-or-die with him now after he was not dealt at the trading deadline). The Lakers went into the break making 49.4% of their shots in their last five games which were generating 112.8 PPG — but also allowed 114.2 PPG in those five contests. The Lakers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win They have also played 7 of their last 10 games at Crypto.com Arena Over the Total when favored — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total when favored by no more than six points. And in their last 8 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Lakers have played 6 of these games Over the Total. Furthermore, the Lakers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. And while the Clippers allow 107.7 PPG this season, the Lakers have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams who do not allow more than 108 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Against Pacific Division rivals this season, the Lakers are allowing these opponents to make 47.5% of their shots which is resulting in 116.3 PPG. The Lakers have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against Pacific Division foes. The Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two Los Angeles rivals. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (517) and the Los Angeles Lakers (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-08-22 |
Pacers v. Hawks OVER 226.5 |
|
112-133 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (505) and the Atlanta Hawks (506). THE SITUATION: Indiana (19-36) has lost three straight games after their 98-85 loss at Cleveland as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (25-28) has lost three of their last four games after their 103-94 upset loss at Dallas as a 2-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pacers only made 37.3% of their shots on Sunday against the Cavaliers which was the lowest shooting effort in their last 23 games. They also held Cleveland to just 40.5% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 14 contests. The Over is 4-1-1 in Indiana’s last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after a loss by 10 or more points. The Pacers have been playing more Overs lately given injuries that are forcing them to play more small-ball. Center Myles Turner remains out with an injury — and big man Isaiah Jackson is questionable with an ankle injury. Damontas Sabonis did return to the court on Sunday to give head coach Rick Carlisle another big man — but he was traded to the Sacramento Kings today leaving the Pacers thin upfront once again. Indiana has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Atlanta only made 38.9% of their shots on Sunday against the Mavericks which was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Atlanta returns home where they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Big man John Collins has been upgraded to probable with his heel injury — and the Pacers lack the players to slow him down in the paint. The Over is 15-5-1 in the Hawks’ last 21 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight Overs when facing each other — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when Atlanta is hosting the game. The Hawks won the last meeting between these teams on December 1st by a 114-111 score as a 2-point underdog — and the Pacers have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when avenging a same-season loss this season including six of their last opportunities for revenge from a loss by three points or less. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (505) and the Atlanta Hawks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-22 |
Hawks v. Mavs OVER 222 |
|
94-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (549) and the Dallas Mavericks (550). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (25-27) has lost two of their last three games after their 125-114 loss at Toronto as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Dallas (30-23) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 107-98 win against Philadelphia as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Ignore the season-long Under team trends for the Dallas Mavericks tonight. After a stretch where they played 13 of 14 games Under the Total, Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and there are fundamental reasons why they are playing higher-scoring games. Both of the teams tonight are dealing with injuries — and that should produce more playing time for lineups that will lead to higher-scoring games. The Mavericks have been without Tim Hardaway, Jr. in the last five games, and Kristaps Porzingis has missed the last three games after only playing 11 minutes in their game against the Pacers two Saturdays ago. These absences have meant that Jason Kidd has given more playing time to Reggie Bullock — a good offensive player with limitations on defense. Bullock has averaged 18.2 Points-Per-Game in the five games since the Hardaway injury while playing just under 31 minutes per game. Dallas has seen at least 234 combined points scored in three of their last four games. In Bullock’s last two games, he has averaged 21.5 PPG while playing 36 and 38 minutes. Additionally, Maxi Kleber has also been declared out (after being listed as questionable earlier today) with the knee injury that kept him out of Friday’s game against the 76ers. The Mavericks will miss his defensive presence inside — Philadelphia made 51.4% of their shots against Dallas which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Dallas has stepped up their offensive efforts with Bullock getting more playing time as well. They have an Offensive Rating of 122.3 in their last five games while scoring 132 points on two separate occasions. Luka Doncic still leads the way for this team — he poured in 33 points in the victory against the Sixers. Atlanta may be without John Collins, Danilo Gallinari, and Lou Williams tonight who are all listed as questionable. If Collins cannot play, DeAndre Hunter will be inserted into the starting lineup which means more small-ball for the Hawks — and that lends itself to higher-scoring games. Atlanta does have Bogdan Bogdanovic back in the mix to complement Trae Young in the offensive attack. The Hawks are making 49.7% of their shots in their last five games which are generating 115.0 Points-Per-Game. Atlanta is second in the NBA with an Offensive Rating of 113.4 — but their underwhelming play this year can be blamed on their decline at the other end of the court where they rank 27th with a Defensive Rating of 107.2. The Hawks have played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. Atlanta has also played 14 of their last 17 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Hawks have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog — and the Mavericks have played 4 straight Overs as a favorite. 10* NBA Atlanta-Dallas ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (549) and the Dallas Mavericks (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-22 |
Bulls v. Pacers OVER 230 |
Top |
122-115 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (515) and the Indiana Pacers (516). THE SITUATION: Chicago (32-19) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 127-120 loss at Toronto as a 4.5-point underdog last night. Indiana (19-34) has lost five of their last seven games with their 119-118 upset loss to Orlando as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Injuries have significantly impacted both teams — and the result will be mostly small-ball tonight between two teams that playing higher-scoring games given the attrition that both teams are dealing with right now. Interestingly, the oddsmakers initially set the Total at 232.5 — about six points higher than any Pacers game this season. The market has considered this lunacy and bet it down a few points. But the line was set that high for a reason. Head coach Rick Carlisle may have no centers on his roster. After Goga Bitadze suffered a foot injury before Monday’s game with the Clippers, Carlisle had to rely on rookie Isaiah Jackson as his only center — and he did respond with 26 points and 10 rebounds in a 122-116 victory. But Jackson was then injured very early in the game with the Magic on Wednesday — and all Carlisle had left was to play rookie free agent Terry Taylor at center despite his 6’5 frame. Taylor did score 24 points with 16 rebounds in his 37 minutes as he looked to justify his two-way contract by flourishing in the frenetic pace of that game. Jackson will remain out tonight. So while Bitazde is listed as questionable with his ankle, Carlisle may have to use Taylor in significant minutes at the five spot tonight — and that is a recipe for a fast pace and little defense from the Pacers. How will Taylor defend Nikola Vucevic? The 6’10 behemoth is scoring 17.1 Points-Per-Game and averaging 11.5 Rebounds Per Game. Indiana is already without Damontas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, and Myles Turner — and they have seen three straight and five of their last six games generate at least 230 combined points. In their last five games, the Pacers are making a healthy 46.5% of their shots which is generating 116.8 PPG — but they are allowing their opponents to make 49.5% of their shots which is resulting in 127.0 PPG over that span. Not having Turner defend the paint significantly derails Indiana’s defensive foundation. It remains telling that Orlando put up 119 points despite only making 44.2% of their shots which was the Pacers’ best defensive effort in their last 12 games. The Over is 3-0-1 in Indiana’s last 4 games after a loss. Additionally, the Pacers have played 26 of their last 36 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after an upset loss at home when they were favored. They have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as the underdog. Chicago got 30 points from Vucevic last night in their losing effort to the Raptors — so he is poised for another big game. The Bulls only made 47.8% of their shots last night after generating a field goal percentage of 51.1% in each of their previous four games. But they did hold Toronto to just 42.5% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last five games — and their third-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 13 contests. Chicago has now played four straight games where at least 246 combined points were scored. They are making 52.3% of their shots in their last five games which are producing 121.8 PPG but allowing their opponents to shoot 48.6% from the field and score 118.8 PPG. They are playing high-scoring games without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso — and they might not play Zach LaVigne or Coby White tonight on the second of back-to-backs with them nursing nagging injuries. But head coach Billy Donovan will have DeMar DeRozan leading the way in the Bulls’ small-ball attack. Chicago has played 7 straight Overs when playing without rest — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing their third game in four days. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in the Bulls’ last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And in their last 12 games on the road when favored, Chicago has played 9 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Bulls have won the last two meetings between these two teams after their 108-106 road win on December 31st. Indiana has played 29 of their last 41 games Over the Total when avenging a loss — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (515) and the Indiana Pacers (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-23-22 |
Clippers v. Knicks UNDER 205.5 |
|
102-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
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At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (561) and the New York Knicks (562). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (23-24) won its second game in their last three games with their 102-101 victory at Philadelphia as an 8.5-point underdog on Friday. New York (22-24) has dropped two games in a row with their 102-91 win against New Orleans as a 4-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knicks allowed the Pelicans to make 50% of their shots which was tied for the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 14 games. New York has played 38 of their last 55 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Knicks have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. New York stays at home at Madison Square Garden where they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 20 of their last 28 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 22 of their last 32 road games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Clippers stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on their home court. Los Angeles has also played 18 of their last 24 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: To compound matters for New York, they may be without one of their most reliable scorers in Kemba Walker who is questionable with a knee injury. Walker has regained a spot in the starting lineup given the injury to Derrick Rose last month. The Clippers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Knicks have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when favored. 10* NBA Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (561) and the New York Knicks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-14-22 |
Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
99-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Philadelphia 76ers (508). THE SITUATION: Boston (21-21) has won three games in a row after their 119-100 upset win at Indiana as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Philadelphia (23-17) had their seven-game winning streak end with their 109-98 upset loss to Charlotte as a 5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston made 51.3% of their shots in the upset win against the Pacers which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Celtics have been a disappointment on the offensive end of the court this season. They rank just 23rd in the league in Offensive Rating. Too often, Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown settle for isolation basketball rather than getting a better rhythm to their offense to generate better shots. Rookie head coach Ime Udoka has not offered much schematically to correct these issues either. The Celtics did allow Indiana to make 46.5% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. Boston has been outstanding on the defensive end this season — they rank 5th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. Even after Wednesday’s game, the Celtics have held their last five opponents to 96.0 Points-Per-Game on 42.8% shooting. The Under is 33-15-1 in Boston’s last 49 games after a double-digit victory — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. The Celtics have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They have also played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia allowed the Hornets to make 51.7% of their shots in the loss on Wednesday. The 76ers still rank 3rd in the league in their last ten games in Defensive Efficiency. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Under is also 7-2-1 in Philadelphia’s last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Sixers are just 8-9 this season on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home. The 76ers have also played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road (Boston: 8-13 on the road) — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers are missing some players including Danny Green and Shake Milton. Marcus Smart is questionable for the Celtics. The Sixers pulled the upset against Boston on December 20th with their 108-103 victory — and Boston has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when motivated by revenge. The Celtics have also played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss. These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Philadelphia 76ers (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-09-22 |
Pelicans v. Raptors OVER 222 |
|
101-105 |
Loss |
-103 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
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At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (14-25) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 101-96 win against Golden State as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Toronto (19-17) is on a five-game winning streak after their 122-108 win against Utah as a 12-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans played their best defensive game in their last four contests after holding the Warriors to just 42.5% shooting. New Orleans has allowed at least 115 points in four of their last six games. They are giving up 114.8 Points-Per-Game on 48.1% shooting over their last five games. The Pelicans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, New Orleans has played 4 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total in January. Toronto has scored at least 116 points in five straight games — they are averaging 120.5 PPG over that stretch. They have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after a win by 10 or more points. The Raptors have also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They stay at home where they have played 7 straight games Over the Total. Toronto has also played 8 straight Overs at home when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Toronto. 10* NBA Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-04-22 |
Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 207.5 |
|
94-104 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
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At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (525) and the New York Knicks (526). THE SITUATION: Indiana (14-23) has lost four in a row after their 108-104 loss at Cleveland as a 4.5-point underdog on January 2nd. New York (17-20) has lost two in a row after their 120-105 loss at Toronto as an 8-point underdog on January 2nd.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers only made 44% of their shots against the Cavaliers — and that was still the best shooting performance in their last four contests. Indiana stays on the road where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total. The Pacers have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Indiana has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. New York shot 44.9% from the field against the Raptors which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. And while Toronto made 47.7% of their shots against them on Sunday, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in the last five games that Tom Thibodeau’s team has allowed. The Knicks have played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. New York has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They return home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when favored. And in their last 15 games against teams with a losing record, the Knicks have played 11 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total — and these teams have played 9 of their last 13 encounters in Madison Square Garden Under the Total. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (525) and the New York Knicks (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-21 |
Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 223.5 |
Top |
124-107 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
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At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (541) and the Denver Nuggets (542). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (12-15) snapped their five-game losing streak with a 116-111 upset win at Portland as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (14-13) has won three of their last four games with their 113-107 win against Washington as a 4-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves have played 27 of their last 37 road games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The 111 points they allowed to the Trail Blazers was their lowest in their last four games. Minnesota has let their last five opponents make 49.6% of their shots which has translated into 120.2 PPG. Now the T-Wolves stay on the road where they are scoring 111.1 PPG while allowing 113.9 PPG. Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. D’Angelo Russell is questionable tonight with an ankle injury. Denver will be without JaMychal Green who is also dealing with an ankle — but Aaron Gordon and Will Barton have been upgraded to probable. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Denver has also played 11 straight Overs after allowing at least 100 points. They are scoring 113.6 PPG in their last five games — but they are surrendering 113.0 PPG on 48.7% shooting in those five games as well. The 45.6% shooting they held the Wizards to on Monday was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Nuggets are now playing their sixth game in the last ten days — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing at least their sixth game in ten days. Denver has played four straight Unders — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight Overs when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total in December going back to last season. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (541) and the Denver Nuggets (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-11-21 |
Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 218.5 |
|
127-112 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (563) and the San Antonio Spurs (564). THE SITUATION: Denver (12-13) has lost two of their last three games after a 123-111 setback on the road against the Spurs on Thursday as a 2-point underdog. San Antonio (9-15) has now won five of their last seven games with the victory two days ago.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets allowed the Spurs to make 52.3% of their shots on Thursday. Denver has allowed eight of their last twelve opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Denver allowed New Orleans to make 52.2% of their shots in their previous game on Wednesday — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Additionally, the Over is 25-9-1 in the Pelicans’ last 35 games after a double-digit loss — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Nuggets allow their home hosts to score 110.4 Points-Per-Game on 48.1% shooting when on the road this season. That helps explain why they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. On the positive side, the Nuggets are scoring 108.8 PPG in their last five games — more than 4 PPG above their season average. San Antonio has played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. The Spurs score 114.1 PPG on their home court while making 48.5% of their shots. San Antonio has played 20 of their last 27 home games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total as an underdog. And while Denver is 5-9 on the road, the Spurs have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 6 straight Overs when playing in San Antonio. 10* NBA Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (563) and the San Antonio Spurs (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-21 |
Knicks v. Nets UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
110-112 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
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At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (531) and the Brooklyn Nets (532). THE SITUATION: New York (11-9) has won two of their last three games after their 99-90 victory at Atlanta on Saturday. Brooklyn (14-6) had their four-game winning streak end on Saturday with their 113-107 upset loss to Phoenix as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knicks probably played their best defensive game of the season against the Hawks. New York held Atlanta to just 35.5% shooting — the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season — and the 90 points they gave up was the second-lowest mark of the year. Not coincidentally, head coach Tom Thibodeau did not play Kemba Walker in the game — and he announced yesterday that he was removing Walker from the rotation completely. Walker was a high-priced free-agent signee in the offseason from Boston to provide an offensive spark. He has scored 11.7 Points-Per-Game in the 24.5 minutes per game he has played this season. His removal from the rotation will lead to lower scoring games for the Knicks since the team will lose his outside shooting but benefit from getting closer to Thibodeau’s expectations of the play of their defense. New York has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 105 points in their last game. In their last five games, they are scoring 102.2 PPG on 41.9% shooting — a drop of -4.1 PPG from their season average. The Knicks stay on the road where they have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. New York has also played 21 of their last 31 road games Under the Total with the Total in the 210-219.5 point range. Additionally, the Knicks have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. The Nets stay at home where the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total when favored. Brooklyn has won seven of their last nine games in a stretch fueled by the play of their defense. In those nine games, the Nets rank sixth in the league in Defensive Efficiency. They will be without sharpshooter Joe Harris indefinitely with his shoulder injury.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 12 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (531) and the Brooklyn Nets (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-21 |
Wizards v. Pelicans UNDER 211.5 |
|
102-127 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (527) and the New Orleans Pelicans (528). THE SITUATION: Washington (11-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 109-103 upset loss as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. New Orleans (3-16) has lost four of their last five games with their 110-96 loss to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wizards are playing great defense under rookie head coach Wes Unseld Jr. That Unseld is getting solid defensive contributions from Montrezl Harrell is extraordinary when considering he was pushed out of the Lakers’ rotation last season due to his play on that end of the court. Washington ranks 5th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. The Wizards have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 41.7% shooting from the field which is resulting in only 100.9 PPG. Washington has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Wizards rank just 20th in the league in Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring only 100.0 PPG on the road. Additionally, Washington has played 6 straight Unders as a favorite — and they have played 5 straight Unders against teams not winning at least 40% of their games. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight Unders after a double-digit loss. The Pelicans rank just 26th in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring just 96.4 PPG in their last five games. They stay at home where the Under is 11-2-1 in their last 14 games — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games as an underdog. New Orleans has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Washington won the last meeting between these two teams by a 105-100 with the Total set at 208 back on November 15th. These two teams have played 20 of their last 27 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games in the Big Easy Under the Total. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (527) and the New Orleans Pelicans (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-21 |
Raptors v. Grizzlies OVER 217 |
|
126-113 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Memphis Grizzlies (526). THE SITUATION: Toronto (8-10) has lost four of their last five games after a 119-104 upset loss as a 9-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (9-8) has won three of their last four games with their 119-118 upset win at Utah as an 11-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raptors made only 39.4% of their shots on Sunday which was the second-lowest field goal percentage of the season for them. Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 26 of their last 37 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. They stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. Memphis has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Grizzlies return home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Memphis is last in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency — but they also rank a respectable 10th in Offensive Efficiency. Toronto ranks 8th in the league in Offensive Efficiency — but they are a disappointing 21st in Defensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: The Raptors have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range — and 25 of their last 33 games Over the Total with the number in that 210-219.5 point range. 10* NBA Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Memphis Grizzlies (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-21 |
Pistons v. Rockets UNDER 210.5 |
|
112-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (531) and the Houston Rockets (532). THE SITUATION: Detroit (1-8) has lost four in a row after their 96-90 loss to Brooklyn as a 9.5-point underdog on Friday. Houston (1-9) has lost eight in a row with their 120-107 loss at Golden State as a 12.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pistons made only 37.9% of their shots against the Nets. They have only made more than 40.9% of their shots once in their first nine games of the season. Detroit is last in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency as they begin to build their offense around Cade Cunningham who start to the season was delayed by injury. They are scoring only 94.9 Points-Per-Game on 39.4% shooting this season — and in Cunningham’s four games since returning from an ankle injury, they are scoring only 92.8 points per 100 possessions. Last year’s first-round pick, Killian Hayes, continues to disappoint after coming to the US after playing in France. The Pistons have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. They go on the road where they have played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Under is 8-2-1 in Detroit’s last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less — and the Under is 18-7-2 in their last 27 games as an underdog. Houston has played 4 straight Unders after a double-digit loss at home. They allowed the Warriors to make 51.8% of their shots which was the second-highest field goal percentage mark that they have surrendered this season. The bigger issue for this team has been on offense. Rookie Jalen Green entered the week making only 35.3% of his shots. Kevin Porter, Jr. is shooting just 36.7% from the field entering the week — and his transition to point guard has been marred by turnovers. The Rockets turn the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions which is the highest mark in the league. This is the main reason why they rank third-to-last in Offensive Efficiency. They return home where they make only 41.9% of their shots. The defense at home has been solid — they hold their opponents to 43.1% shooting and 106.7 PPG. Houston last played at home on October 28th — and they have played 35 of their last 52 home games Under the Total after being on the road for at least seven days. The Rockets have played 36 of their last 51 home games Under the Total — and the Under is 19-7-1 in their last 27 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have played 6 straight Unders against teams with a losing record. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (531) and the Houston Rockets (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-08-21 |
Nets v. Bulls UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
95-118 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (503) and the Chicago Bulls (504). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (7-3) has won five straight games after their 116-103 victory at Toronto as a 3.5-point favorite yesterday. Chicago (6-3) has lost two in a row after their 114-105 loss to Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets made 51.9% of their shots yesterday in what was the best shooting effort of the young season for them. They also allowed the Raptors to make 47.1% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season and highest in their last eight games. Even with yesterday’s numbers, Brooklyn has allowed their last five opponents to make just 41.8% of their shots. The Nets rank 6th in the league in Defensive Efficiency. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. Brooklyn has also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Nets’ starting five combined to play 168:17 minutes yesterday, they have then played 5 straight Unders after playing a game where the starting five combined to play at least 160 minutes. Brooklyn stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 15-5-1 in their last 21 games as an underdog. Chicago allowed the 76ers to make 53.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. They had not allowed their opponents to make more than 49.4% of their shots before Saturday. The Bulls rank 7th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Chicago stays at home where they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total. The Bulls have also played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders when facing each other — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing at Chicago. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (503) and the Chicago Bulls (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-21 |
Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 |
Top |
98-105 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-28) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 123-119 upset loss at home to Milwaukee as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Milwaukee (61-33) can win the NBA Championship tonight with their 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The high-scoring game I expected for Game Four was a game late. The Suns not only blew a 16-point lead at the end of the first quarter but also a 55.2% clip from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They made 13 of their 19 shots from behind the arc for a 68% shooting percentage of their 3s. But Phoenix allowed Milwaukee to make 57.5% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 25 games. Chris Paul declared after their Game One victory that they want to play with pace in this series. In hindsight, that appears to be a mistake. The Bucks are winning this series with rebounding and transition points — and more possessions fuel that edge for them. I will not be surprised if the Suns look to slow the pace of this game down to take the advantage of the veteran leadership Paul provides them in close games. As it is, Phoenix has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Suns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. They go back on the road where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games as an underdog. Milwaukee’s 57.5% shooting from the field was the best shooting effort in their last 87 contests going all the way back to January 4th. It was the second-best offensive performance of the season. They nailed 14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc. I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods — especially with the pressure of closing out the series to win the title. These Game Sixes are tricky for a home team with a 3-2 series lead. While they have a bird in the hand on a potental seventh game, there often is stress and anxiety of feeling the urgency to end things in front of their home fans. The Bucks should play better on defense after letting Phoenix make more than 50% of their shots in two straight games — and they have played all 3 games Under the Total this season after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. The Under is also 4-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. They return home where the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA Tuesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-21 |
Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219 |
Top |
123-119 |
Loss |
-101 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (509) and the Phoenix Suns (510) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (60-33) has won the last two games of this series to even things at 2-2 after their 109-103 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Phoenix (65-27) has lost four of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks rallied to win Game Four despite allowing the Suns to make 51.3% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort in Milwaukee’s last 15 games. The Bucks neutralized Phoenix’s shooting edge by creating more scoring opportunities from offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. Milwaukee held a +12 edge in turnovers by forcing 17 turnovers and only coughing the ball up five times. The Bucks have played 4 straight Unders after having a turnover edge of +10 or better in their last game. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. Now Milwaukee goes on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. The Under is also 9-3-2 in the Bucks’ last 14 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games overall. Phoenix lost Game Four despite that 51.3% field goal percentage which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Suns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Phoenix did not cover the point spread in their last two losses in Milwaukee. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two in a row — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: I thought both teams would enjoy sharp offensive games in Game Four — and I was wrong on that front. The Suns’ 51.3% shooting percentage disguised their weak 7 of 23 (30%) clip from behind the arc. Milwaukee made only 40.2% of their shots — but they were saved by Phoenix being sloppy with the basketball and too often playing out of control. The Suns were simply playing too fast — and their likely correction to limit the turnovers that killed them is to slow the pace. With the winner of Game Five seizing control of the series, I expect teams to be nervy. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 Game Fives Under the Total. With the number still in the high-210s, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (509) and the Phoenix Suns (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-21 |
Suns v. Bucks OVER 220 |
Top |
103-109 |
Loss |
-105 |
44 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-26) looks to bounce-back from their 120-100 loss on the road to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (59-33) has three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Suns scored their fewest points on Sunday in their last five games. After scoring 102 points in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers, they responded by scoring 130 to close out that series in Game Six. Chris Paul and Devin Booker combined to make only two of their 11 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. Phoenix has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Suns have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. Paul commented after Game One that his team wants to push the pace — and they should be rested with the extra day off between games. The Over is 47-23-1 Phoenix’s last 71 games when playing with two days of rest. Furthermore, the Over is 12-5-1 in the Suns’ last 18 games on the road — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games as an underdog. Phoenix has also played 32 of their last 52 games Over the Total when the Total is set at 220 or higher. Milwaukee has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a win on their home court — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win at by double-digits. Returning home was what the Bucks players not named Giannis Antetokounmpo needed to jump-start their shooting. Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday combined to make 14 of their 28 shots including 8 of their 17 shots from behind the arc. The Over is 3-0-1 in Milwaukee’s last 4 games at home against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Over is also 16-4-2 in the Bucks’ last 22 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 5 straight Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points. The Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games between these two teams — and I expect this to be the wildest game yet in this series since it remains critical for the Bucks to win the game. 25* NBA Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-21 |
Suns v. Bucks OVER 219.5 |
|
100-120 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the Milwaukee Bucks (506) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-25) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 118-108 win against the Bucks as a 4.5-point spread favorite on Thursday. Milwaukee (58-33) returns home having lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee only made 45.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Bucks made only 9 of their 31 shots from behind the arc. Now Milwaukee returns home where they are making 48.6% of their shots including 38.2% of their 3-point shots. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday struggled in Game Two as they combined to make only 12 of their 37 shots from the field. Both players — along with the Bucks’ role players — usually play better back on their home court. Milwaukee has played 30 of their last 45 games Over the Total after losing their last two games by double-digits on the road. They have played 37 of their last 55 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. Phoenix has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a point spread win. The Suns have also played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Phoenix has played 30 of their last 45 games Over the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. Now the Suns go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 22 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 16-4-1 in Milwaukee’s last 21 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the Milwaukee Bucks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-21 |
Bucks v. Suns UNDER 221.5 |
|
108-118 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Phoenix Suns (504) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-32) looks to bounce back from their 118-105 loss on the road to the Suns as a 5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (64-25) has won three of their last four games to take a 1-0 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Despite the 11-point loss, the Bucks nailed 16 of their 36 shots from behind the arc for a 44.4% shooting clip. Milwaukee entered the NBA Finals making only 31.1% of their 3-point shots — and they are hitting just 34% of their 3-pointers in the playoffs on the road. The Bucks have played three straight Overs — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. Additionally, the Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, Milwaukee has played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series. Phoenix has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing their second game in seven days. Milwaukee allowed Phoenix to make 46.6% of their shots, the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. Even worse, the Suns generated an Offensive Rating of 118.0 in that game which was the fourth-highest opponent’s Offensive Rating Milwaukee has allowed in this postseason. Mike Budenholzer is every pundit’s whipping boy for not making the adjustments they see (or not doing it quick enough) — but the benefit of a seven-game playoff series is to experiment with different defensive schemes. What the Bucks’ pick-and-roll defense places as their top priority is not foul — not only to protect Antetokounmpo to keep him on the court but to also not give up easy free throws. This consideration is rarely mentioned by the ankle-biters. Budenholzer may be content to let Chris Paul once again settle for mid-range jumpers — the shot that these same-ankle bitters consider the worst shot in basketball since it is not a 3-pointer nor a high-percentage shot at the rim. Or, Budenholzer may have defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday play against Paul rather than Devin Booker in Game One. Or, Budenholzer may go back to the drop defense against the pick-and-roll with Brook Lopez playing a little bit higher up the court to challenge the mid-range shot — this was very effective against Trae Young after Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals. I am not sure what Budenholzer will do while acknowledging that he is a far better defensive coach than me (and his critics). The Bucks should commit fewer personal fouls tonight — the Suns got to the free-throw line 26 times and made 25 of those shots from the charity stripe. Milwaukee’s opponent’s free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio of 16.3% is the lowest in the NBA. Phoenix generated a 29.6% FTA: FGA ratio in Game One — and they average 19 free throw attempts per game. The Suns will not likely have a +16 point edge from the free-throw line tonight. Having Holiday defend Paul may be the preferred adjustment for Budenholzer since Booker’s play has declined a bit as the postseason has moved on. The young star is averaging 23.3 PPG on just 35% shooting from the field and a 22% mark from behind the arc in his last six games.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is supported by an empirical angle that has been 68% effective over the last five seasons. In games involving two teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range when just one of the teams is playing their second game in five days (both Milwaukee and Phoenix trigger this angle), the game finished Under the Total in 91 of these last 134 situations. 10* NBA Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Phoenix Suns (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-21 |
Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219.5 |
|
105-118 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Phoenix Suns (502) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-31) has won two in a row and four of their last five after their 118-107 upset win in Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday to close out that series in six games. Phoenix (63-25) comes off a 130-103 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite last Wednesday to win that series in six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo for this game although he has been upgraded to questionable with the knee injury that kept him out of the final two games of that series. The Bucks won both games without Antetokounmpo — but this team could be in for a letdown now. The Bucks have played 34 of their last 54 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least 10 points. And while Game Six with the Hawks finished Over the 218 point Total, Milwaukee has then played 29 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Bucks have covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games when playing teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 opening games in a new playoff series Under the Total. Phoenix has played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division opponent. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. The Suns made 56.4% of their shots to close out their series with the Clippers last Wednesday — that was the best shooting effort in their last 40 games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 19th in Milwaukee with Phoenix upsetting the Bucks, 128-127, as a 3-point underdog. The Bucks have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court — and they have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home underdog. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Phoenix Suns (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
118-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Atlanta Hawks (562) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (57-31) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 123-112 win at home against the Hawks as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Atlanta (51-38) has lost three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks raced out to a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter by scoring 36 points. 28 of those points were in the paint with Milwaukee catching Atlanta too lax with their interior defense. The Hawks tightened up on defense after that. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have played 29 of their last 45 games Under the Total on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been declared out for tonight’s game — so it will be Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday carrying the offensive load again tonight. They both had big offensive games — Middleton scored 26 points with 13 rebounds and eight assists and Holiday scored 25 points with 13 assists and six rebounds. Brook Lopez also had his best game in the series with 33 points on 14 of 18 shooting. It is unlikely these four players are as effective tonight — especially back on the road in Atlanta. The Under is 5-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Atlanta has played 4 straight Unders after a loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Atlanta returns home where they have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 23-9-1 in the Hawks’ last 33 games in the playoffs as an underdog. Trae Young is listed as questionable with the bone bruise in his foot — he is a game-time decision. I suspect he will try to play in this elimination game but expected him to be close to 100% is probably too optimistic.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 17 of their last 28 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. These two teams have also played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing in Atlanta. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Atlanta Hawks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 216.5 |
|
112-123 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (541) and the Milwaukee Bucks (542) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (51-37) evened this series at 2-2 with their 110-88 upset win at home against the Bucks as a 5.5-point underdog. Milwaukee (56-31) had won the previous two games in this series before losing on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a war of attrition between two flawed basketball teams now facing the challenge of adjusting to significant injuries. I waited for the early afternoon injury updates to make my final calls on this game. Giannis Antetokounmpo was declared out for tonight’s game at 1:30 PM ET with his sore left knee. Trae Young is questionable with the bone bruise in his right foot — he will be a game-time decision. Even if he plays, it remains a separate question as to how effective he will be if less than 100%. The injury updates are only half the news that interests me — how this impacts the line movement on the over/under is the other important dynamic to consider. Atlanta’s secondary players stepped up knowing they would have to be at their best to compensate for the absence of Young. Their 50.6% shooting effort was their best performance in 10 games. A letdown — especially on the road — is likely. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. On the road, Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better when playing at home. Milwaukee should tighten up on defense after allowing the Hawks to make 50.6% of their shots, the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Bucks have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points. Milwaukee has also played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total at home Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Bucks return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a home favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. With the playoff pressure intensifying, expect a lower-scoring game between these two teams far from 100%. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (541) and the Milwaukee Bucks (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-21 |
Suns v. Clippers UNDER 215 |
|
130-103 |
Loss |
-107 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (531) and the Los Angeles Clippers (532) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (62-25) looks to bounce back from their 116-102 upset loss to the Clippers as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (57-33) still faces elimination tonight, trailing 3-2 in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Phoenix allowed the Clippers to make 54.8% of their shots in Game Five which was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. The Suns have only suffered back-to-back losses four times all season — so a better effort on the defensive end of the court should be coming tonight. Phoenix has played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Suns have also played 18 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total after a loss on their home court. Phoenix goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Los Angeles had their best shooting effort in their last five games with their 54.8% shooting percentage on Monday. But the Clippers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. Los Angeles returns to the Staples Center where the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games. The Clippers have also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. Phoenix has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss where they were favored by at least 7 points. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (5
|
06-29-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 219 |
Top |
88-110 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-30) took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 113-102 win as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (50-37) has lost the last two games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks were cruising with a 95-88 lead with just 7:20 left in the game. But Atlanta would only score seven points the rest of the game with their offense almost completely drying up after Trae Young’s inopportune ankle injury after accidentally stepping on the foot of a referee. He is questionable to play tonight. While my best guess is that he tries to play, the mystery is how effective will he be? His game is dependent on his lateral movement. He only took four shots in the fourth quarter, making one, with just three points, and Milwaukee outscoring Atlanta by 15 points when he was on the court. He was merely a decoy in the waning minutes of the game — that speaks loudly. The Hawks are looking more and more like a M*A*S*H unit. They are already hampered by Bogdan Bogdanovic and his knee injury. After scoring 16.4 PPG with 5.9 Rebounds-Per-Game in the first nine playoff games this postseason, he has not scored more than nine points nor pulled down more than four rebounds in his last six playoff games. After making only 3 of 16 shots on Sunday, Bogdanovic has made only 7 of his 28 shot attempts in this series. Atlanta has averaged only 96.5 PPG in the last two games in this series. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Hawks have played 6 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They stay on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games when playing teams with a winning record at home. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has lost the last two games by 34 and 11 points — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging two straight games by 10 or more points. These two teams have also played 4 straight Unders when playing in Atlanta. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-21 |
Clippers v. Suns UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
116-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Five of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (56-33) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Four by an 84-80 score on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Phoenix (62-24) has won ten of their last eleven games to take the 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers only made 32.5% of their shots on Sunday — so was that an outlier or indicative of a downward trend? I suspect it is the latter. This Los Angeles team is tired — both physically from the every-other-day grind of the NBA playoffs and emotionally for having dug itself three straight 0-2 series holes. Without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George has taken the leadership role on offense — and he is averaging 40.9 minutes per game in the playoffs which is almost seven more minutes per game than his regular-season average. The Clippers are only making 34.8% of their 3-point shot attempts in this series, a far cry from their 41.8% clip during the regular season. Los Angeles has tired legs — and the Suns are forcing them to take more difficult shots from behind the arc. The Clippers have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home against a Pacific Division rival. The Under is also 13-6-1 in their last 20 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, LA has played 4 straight Unders after failing to crack 90 points in their last game. The Clippers are averaging 120.8 points per 100 possessions in the postseason — but they are down to just 109.4 points per 100 possessions against Phoenix. Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog — and the Under is 35-17-3 in their last 55 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Phoenix has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional rival. The Suns have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Phoenix only made 36.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 41 games. The Suns’ 84 points came after them scoring just 92 points in Game Three — so this looks to be more than just a bad shooting night. Devin Booker does not look comfortable wearing the face mask to protect his broken nose — and he may be tiring from the playoff grind in his first postseason as a professional. Chris Paul still looks rusty after being out with COVID. Cameron Payne is slowed with an ankle injury — he played only 20 minutes on Sunday and made only 2 of his 8 shots from the field. Phoenix returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The 164 combined points finished over 50 points below the 217.5 total set for Game Four. The empirical data suggests another lower-scoring game is coming. In games with the Total set at 210 or higher, when a team with a winning percentage in the 60 to 75% range faces a team with a winning record after a game that finished at least 36 points below the Total, this game finished Under the Total in 52 of the last 73 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 224.5 |
|
113-102 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (55-30) evened this series at 1-1 with their 125-91 victory at home as an 8-point favorite on Friday. Atlanta (50-36) had their two-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks shot 52.1% shooting percentage from the field in Game Two which was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering four or five of their last six games. They head back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s. The Under is also 7-2-1 in the Bucks’ last 10 road games against teams with a winning record. The Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when they are favored. Atlanta allowed the Bucks to make 52.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Hawks made only 41.5% of their shots with Trae Young struggling by making only 6 of 16 shots including just 1 of his 8 shots from behind the arc for 15 points. He struggled with Milwaukee’s adjustment to pick-and-roll coverage that played higher-up on him to take away the floaters that burned them in Game One. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 21 of their last 33 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Hawks’ Bogan Bogdanovic has struggled since suffering a knee injury in Game Six of their series with Philadelphia. He has not scored more than 9 points in four straight games despite being Atlanta’s primary scoring option after Young. The Hawks return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Atlanta has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. The Hawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by 30 or more points. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-21 |
Suns v. Clippers OVER 218 |
|
84-80 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (591) and the Los Angeles Clippers (592) in Game Four of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-24) had their nine-game winning streak in the postseason snapped in a 106-92 upset loss on the road against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (56-32) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Phoenix made only 38.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 40 games. Chris Paul returned to the court after completing his COVID quarantine but he was rusty by making only 5 of 19 shots. Devin Booker made only 5 of 21 shots while looking uncomfortable wearing the mask he will have to get comfortable with after breaking his nose in the last game. To compound matters, Cameron Payne suffered a left ankle sprain which limited him to just 4:19 minutes played. Phoenix should back to their 114.4 PPG scoring average tonight. Paul will be better with another two days of work to get back into his routine. Booker will get used to the mask — this has rarely been a hindrance for superstars once they get acclimated to the appliance (Rip Hamilton liked it so much that he kept wearing it after his face injury healed when he was leading Detroit Pistons to a title in the 1990s). Payne is listed as probable to play tonight. The Suns have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. They stay on the road where they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a road favorite. Los Angeles played their best game on defense in their last 12 games by holding the Suns to just 38.9% shooting. They have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a double-digit win against a Pacific Division rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. The Clippers have also played 13 of their last 17 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog including their last four games.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (591) and the Los Angeles Clippers (592). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 |
|
91-125 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (581) and the Milwaukee Bucks (582) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-35) took a 1-0 lead in this series with their 116-113 upset victory on the road against the Bucks as an 8.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Milwaukee (54-30) has still won four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks shot 49.5% from the field in Game One which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. It will be difficult for Trae Young to replicate his 48-point effort. He was thriving in the midrange making 13 of his 21 shots inside the arc while taking advantage of the Bucks’ drop coverage on pick-and-rolls. That game was the worst defensive effort for Milwaukee in their last six games. The Bucks should tighten things up on that end of the court tonight. Mike “Never Makes Adjustments (according to his lazy critics)” Budenholzer only played Brook Lopez for just eight minutes in the second half with him on the bench for the final 16 minutes of the game. Lopez was getting burned playing drop defense in the pick-and-roll against Trae Young who was torching him with floaters — but Budenholzer’s move to a small lineup with Antetokounmpo playing the five helped to limit Young to making just two of his eight floaters in the second half. Expect more smaller lineups from Budenholzer tonight. Atlanta has pulled off two straight upset wins after beating Philadelphia on the road in Game Seven in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Hawks have played 10 straight road games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upsets on the road. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. Milwaukee has played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Bucks have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 11 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series — including their last four. The Under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series. These two teams have also played 4 of their last meetings Under the Total. 10* NBA Atlanta-Milwaukee TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (581) and the Milwaukee Bucks (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-24-21 |
Suns v. Clippers OVER 221 |
|
92-106 |
Loss |
-102 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572) in Game Three of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 104-103 victory as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (55-32) trails by an 0-2 mark in a playoff series for the third straight time this postseason.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Phoenix won Game Two despite shooting 50% from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Suns may have an insurmountable edge in Deandre Ayton who Los Angeles does not have an answer for down low. Ayton is averaging 22 PPG on 75.9% shooting while pulling down 11.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in this series. Only Ivica Zubac has come close to slowing down Ayton. DeMarcus Cousins has a -38.2 Net Rating when he is on the court in this series with the Suns scoring at 138.2 points per 100 possession rate. If Zubac gets into foul trouble, Los Angeles may not have a suitable alternative to Cousins. And if the Clippers are playing Zubac, that means more points for both teams. Los Angeles has scored 116 points per 100 possessions with Zubac on the court in this series. The Over is 11-5-1 in the Suns’ last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Los Angeles only made 45% of their shots on Tuesday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games. Paul George has made only 11 of his 29 shots in this series and Marcus Morris has made just 3 of his 13 shots — both should play better back on their home court. The Clippers have played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. The Clippers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 10* NBA Phoenix-LA Clippers ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 227 |
|
116-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (561) and the Milwaukee Bucks (562) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (49-35) has won three of their last four games after their 103-96 upset win at Philadelphia as a 4-point underdog in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. Milwaukee (54-29) has won four of their last five games after rallying from a 3-2 deficit to defeat Brooklyn by a 115-111 score as a 2-point favorite in Game 7 on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Atlanta has also played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after an upset victory. And in their last 31 games after winning two of their last three games, the Hawks have played 20 of these games Under the Total. Atlanta stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. And in their last 21 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Hawks have played 14 of these games Under the Total. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. While there is a cottage industry of folks thinking they are better head coaches than Mike Budenholzer because he doesn’t make enough “adjustments”, the veteran head coach in his third Conference Finals does not get enough credit for his defensive tactics. The Bucks are holding their playoff opponents to 105.0 points per 100 possessions — and these opponents have just a 51.2% effective field percentage in the playoffs. But the Milwaukee offense struggled against a suspect Brooklyn defense last round — they scored at just a 101.9 points per 100 possession rate. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new playoff series Under the Total. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 10* NBA Atlanta-Milwaukee TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (561) and the Milwaukee Bucks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-21 |
Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
103-96 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (48-35) has lost three of the last five games in this series after their 104-99 loss on the road against the 76ers on Friday as a 2.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (56-27) had lost the last two games in this series before forcing a Game Seven with the win in Game Six.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After their blistering first half in the opening game of this series where the Hawks made 63.4% of their shots, Atlanta has never come close to replicating that mark. They have not made more than 45.9% of their shots in five of the next six games — and they only made 41.2% of their shots on Friday despite playing on their home court. While Trae Young has been scintillating with a 30.3 PPG scoring average along with an 11.0 Assists-Per-Game mark, the problem for the Hawks is that he is not getting much help. No other play is averaging more than 2.5 Assists-Per-Game. Bogan Bogdanovich had being been a reliable number two in the first four games of this series with a 19 PPG scoring average and a 36.1% clip from bending the arc, he has only averaged 6.5 PPG in the last two games while making only 1 of his 10 shots from 3-point range. And now Bogdanovich is questionable with a knee injury for this game. Young needs more help. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back to Philadelphia for Game Seven where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. The Hawks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. After scoring at least 118 points in each of the first three games of this series, the Sixers have not scored more than 106 points in the next three games. That downtrend coincides with the slide in Joel Embiid’s play as he continues to manage with the right meniscus tear in his knee. Embiid scored only 22 points on 37.5% shooting on Friday. Philadelphia is favored to win this game and move on to the NBA Eastern Conference Finals — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination. Atlanta has played 17 of their last 22 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination in their history — and they have played 16 of their last 17 playoff games Under the Total in closeout games. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-19-21 |
Bucks v. Nets UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
115-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (53-29) forced a decisive seventh game in this series on Thursday with their 104-89 victory at home as a 5-point favorite. Brooklyn (55-28) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Khris Middleton stepped on Thursday by scoring 37 points on 11 of 16 shooting from the field. Middleton nailed 5 of his 8 shots from behind the arc — but the telling stat is that his teammates made only 2 of their 25 shots from downtown. Now the Bucks go back on the road where Middleton has made only 21 of his 65 shots (32.3%) in this series. Milwaukee has made only 27 of their 89 shots (30.3%) from behind the arc in this series. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog overall — and they have played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total when getting the points. Milwaukee is playing elite-level defense in this series. Going into Game Six, the Bucks held Brooklyn to just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series — and then they held the Nets to only 89 points. Brooklyn is averaging only — and they are averaging just 107 PPG against the Bucks in this series. The Nets are averaging only 103.7 PPG in this series —and they have not scored more than 96 points in three of their last four games in this series. Despite posting a historical 118.3 Offensive Rating in the regular season (and despite injuries to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving) before a 130.1 Offensive Rating in their first-round playoff series with Boston, the Nets had just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series before Game Six. The Under is 34-16-1 in Milwaukee’s last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. While there is now an entire cottage industry of NBA “experts” who think they could get more out of this Bucks’ team than Mike Budenholzer because they have thoughts on how they would better deploy his rotation patterns, Budenholzer has coached amazing results on the defensive end of the court in this series. Brooklyn has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in the Nets’ last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a loss by 10 or more points. For the second-straight game, Brooklyn trailed at halftime by double-digits. They were in the hole by a 59-48 score on Thursday after trailing, 59-43, on Tuesday. The Nets have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after trailing by 10 or more points at halftime in their last two games. They return home where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. Brooklyn has also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams stumbling into the finals with major question marks from their star offensive players. Kevin Durant was sublime in Game Five — but playing every minute on Tuesday seemed to sap his energy on Thursday as he only got to the free throw line twice while committing seven turnovers and missing six of his eight shots from 3-point land. James Harden is not close to 100%. Joe Harris is making only 30.9% of his 3-pointers in this series after leading the NBA in 3-point shooting with a 47.5% clip. Middleton is struggling away from home — and Jrue Holiday is not having a good series as he is averaging only 15.5 PPG on 40.5% shooting. And then there is Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring nice numbers when able to pad his stats as a frontrunner when his team has the lead, but he has disappointed in clutch situations and he has only made 21 of his 46 (45.7%) free throws in the series. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 games between these two teams in Brooklyn. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-21 |
Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 221 |
|
119-131 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (513) and the Los Angeles Clippers (514) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-24) has lost the last three games of this series after getting upset by a 119-111 score as an 8-point underdog on Wednesday. Los Angeles (54-30) has won five of their last seven games with the opportunity to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Utah has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Jazz have not covered the point spread in three straight games in this series — but not only have they played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games, but they have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight games. Utah misses Michael Conley as a second playmaker in this series and to take some of the pressure off Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell’s productivity has declined as the series has moved on — he made only 6 of his 19 shots on Wednesday and is shooting under 40% in the series after Game Two. The Jazz have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They return home where the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Clippers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (513) and the Los Angeles Clippers (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-21 |
76ers v. Hawks UNDER 224 |
Top |
104-99 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Atlanta Hawks (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (55-27) has suffered two straight upset losses in this series after losing to the Hawks at home by a 109-106 score as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Atlanta (48-34) can close out this series tonight with their 3-2 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers took a 62-40 lead going into halftime but their shooting got ice cold as they made only 3 of their 24 shots from behind the arc in the final 24 minutes to blow that game. While it is easy to blame the offense, Doc Rivers’ team allowed the Hawks to score 40 points in the fourth quarter to steal Game Five. In general, Philadelphia has played outstanding defense after getting blitzed in the first half of the first game of this series. Since Game One, the Sixers have held the Atlanta to scoring at just a 108.4 points per 100 possessions rate. Philly’s formula to win this series is on defense. And while Atlanta wants to force the tempo to tire out Joel Embiid in the second half, Rivers will need to counter by slowing the game way down — and in a battle of tempo, slow usually beats fast. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after owning a halftime lead of 20 or more points. They hit the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total when favored. The Sixers have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Atlanta has won the last two games in this series as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset wins. Additionally, Atlanta has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Hawks’ head coach Nate McMillan having his team less reliant on 3s as this series has moved forward. Granted, Atlanta took 40 shots from behind the arc in Game Four while making only 12 of these shots. In Game Three, the Hawks attempted only 23 shots from 3-point range. On Wednesday in Game Five, the Hawks attempted only 26 shots from behind the arc, making just nine of these shots. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the playoffs as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their 4 games this season when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less, 3 of these games have finished Under the Total. 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Atlanta Hawks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-21 |
Nets v. Bucks UNDER 221 |
Top |
89-104 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (55-27) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 114-108 victory at home as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Milwaukee (52-29) has lost three of their last five games as they return home looking to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets won Game Five due to a Herculean effort from Kevin Durant who scored 49 points on 16 of 23 shooting from the field while playing every minute of the game. It will be difficult for Durant to come close to repeating that effort — especially with fatigue being an issue. James Harden played over 45 minutes but he was clearly hobbled with his hamstring injury. He scored only 5 points while making only 1 of his 10 shots and missing all 8 of his shots from behind the arc. Brooklyn shot 49.4% from the field on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Despite posting a historical 118.3 Offensive Rating in the regular season (despite injuries to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving) before a 130.1 Offensive Rating in their first-round playoff series with Boston, the Nets have just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series — and they are averaging just 107 PPG against the Bucks in this series. But Brooklyn should play better on defense tonight after allowing Milwaukee to nail 49.4% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Nets have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Milwaukee enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 10 games with their 49.4% shooting percentage on Tuesday. But when the pressure mounted, the Bucks’ shooting failed — they scored only 17 points in the final 10 1/2 minutes of the fourth quarter. Milwaukee only has a 100 Offensive Rating in this series — and they have been playing at a slower pace than during the regular season. The 108 points they scored in Game Five were the most points they scored in the series. With the oddsmakers setting the Game One number just under 240, some bettors may think the Under trend is completed — and the Over is the smart play again. However, I suspect that the 108 points for the Bucks were more likely their scoring ceiling at this point. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a mess that is riddled with self-doubt at the free-throw line — and Milwaukee’s only answer for the “wall” defense that has stymied them in the postseason in the last three years is for teammates to make 3-pointers. But the Bucks are shooting just 29.3% from behind the arc in this series. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have true shooting percentages below 47% in this series. The ball movement has diminished in this series for Milwaukee as well which is impacting their efficiency. After averaging 25.5 team assists per game in the regular season, they are getting only 18.4 team assists per game. The Bucks have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Milwaukee has also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total at home after an upset loss on the road. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 25-10-1 in the Bucks’ last 36 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. While Milwaukee’s offensive attack has struggled in this series, their efforts on defense remain elite.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the playoff series. The Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games between these two teams — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA 2nd Round Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-21 |
Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 222 |
Top |
119-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (583) and the Utah Jazz (584) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-30) evened this series at 2-2 with their 118-104 win against the Jazz as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. Utah (58-23) has lost two games in a row after riding a six-game winning streak.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 9-2-1 in the Clippers’ last 12 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least 10 points. The Clippers have declared Kawhi Leonard out tonight from the knee injury he suffered after colliding with the Jazz’s Joe Ingles with just 4:35 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Leonard’s loss hurts Los Angeles on both ends of the court — but his loss will probably impact their offensive attack the most since he is the team’s primary scorer. Paul George has a long history of not being reliable as the primary scorer in the playoffs. Everyone’s role for the Clippers becomes more important without Leonard. Marcus Morris broke out of his shooting slump on Monday by nailing 5 of his 6 shots from behind the arc — but he made only 1 of his 16 shots from 3-point range in the first three games of this series even with Leonard available as a safety blanket. The Under is 19-9-1 in Los Angeles’ last 29 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Utah has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss by 10 or more points. And while the Jazz have not covered the point spread in the last two games in this series, they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Utah is dealing with its own injury issues. Donovan Mitchell made just 9 of 26 shots from the field in Game Four as the right ankle injury he suffered seems to be impacting his play. With a 42.6% usage rate for the Jazz on offense, he may be wearing down. Michael Conley is questionable to return to the court for the first time in this series — if he does play, he not only helps the Utah offense with his playmaking but also on defense since he remains a skilled on-the-ball defender.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in Salt Lake City against the Jazz. 25* NBA Bailout Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (583) and the Utah Jazz (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-21 |
Bucks v. Nets UNDER 221 |
|
108-114 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (571) and the Brooklyn Nets (572) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-28) evened this series at 2-2 with their 107-96 upset victory at home against the Nets as a 2-point underdog. Brooklyn (54-27) had won four games in a row before the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss. And while Brooklyn had covered the point spread in their previous five games, they have then played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least four of their last five games. The Nets return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. The Nets will be without Kyrie Irving tonight after he suffered an ankle injury on Sunday. James Harden will attempt to play tonight after not playing since the opening moments of Game One when he re-injured the hamstring that kept him out for the latter part of the regular season. As we have seen with Anthony Davis in these playoffs, attempting to play when injured is not the same as being effective on the court nor lasting into the second half. Brooklyn has played 4 straight Unders against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Milwaukee only made 44.3% of their shots on Sunday — and it was still the best shooting effort in their last three games. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 34 points in the win on 14 of 26 shooting. Despite those nice numbers, I am not buying it. Antetokounmpo continued with his struggles and antics at the free-throw line as he missed five of his ten free throw attempts. He has made only 11 of his 29 (37.9%) free throws in this series. He has the yips — and it is affecting his play on the court even when he is not on the line. His fear of dealing with the demons in his head that he uses all ten seconds allotted what the charity stripe in those of quieting them down contributes to him not playing as aggressively in attacking the basket — he doesn’t want to get fouled. His free-throw shooting in the first two games in Brooklyn was even worse as he made just 2 of his 10 shots. This makes the blue-print “wall” defense against Antetokounmpo even more effective — and it compels him to settle for 3-point shot attempts even though he has made only 4 of his 21 shots from behind the arc in this series. The Greek Freak’s good game came mostly on the heels of his teammates picked him up by making 16 of their 47 shots from 3-point land — with most of their converted 3s taking place in the first half. But the Bucks have not made more than 8 shots from downtown in any other game in this series — and they have a rough 20 of 88 (22.3%) shooting percentage from 3-point range in this series. Milwaukee goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Brooklyn. 10* NBA Milwaukee-Brooklyn TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (571) and the Brooklyn Nets (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-21 |
Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 224 |
Top |
104-118 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the Los Angeles Clippers (564) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-22) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 132-106 loss at the Staples Center to the Clippers as a 4.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (52-30) still trails 2-1 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jazz allowed the Clippers to make 56.2% of their shots in Game Three which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 47 games. Utah has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at 55% of their shots. The Jazz have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after giving up at least 130 points in their last game. Additionally, Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Los Angeles’ 56.2% shooting percentage was the best offensive effort in their last seven games. But the Clippers have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Head coach Tyronn Lue made a defensive adjustment on defending Donovan Mitchell on Saturday by having his primary defender challenge him earlier up the court. That tactical change helped the Clippers play their best defensive game in the series, overall while limiting the Jazz to 42.9% shooting. Los Angeles stays at home where the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Additionally, the Under is 20-7-3 in the Clippers’ last 30 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Under is 10-4-2 in their last 16 games in the playoffs when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Michael Conley has been declared out for this game with the hamstring injury that has kept him out of this series. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. 25* NBA 2nd Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the Los Angeles Clippers (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-21 |
Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 223.5 |
|
125-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (553) and the Denver Nuggets (554) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (58-23) has won six games in a row to take a 3-0 lead in this series after their 116-102 victory on the road against the Nuggets as a 2-point underdog on Friday. Denver (51-30) looks to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns’ offense may get most of the attention — but the defense has been outstanding for head coach Monty Williams’ team. They have held five of their last six opponents to no better than 41.8% shooting. Phoenix has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset victory by double-digits on the road as an underdog. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. The Suns have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total as a favorite. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better, the Under is 6-1-1. Denver has lost all three games in this series by at least 14 points — and they have played 49 of their last 78 games at home Under the Total after losing at least two in a row by at least 10 points. And while each game in this series has seen at least 218 combined points, the Nuggets have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playing at least three games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Denver has also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. The handicapping instincts say to play the Nuggets tonight for a number of reasons — but I am passing due to my concerns over Michael Porter, Jr. The second scoring option to Nikola Jokic has been hobbled with a back injury which probably has much to do with him not scoring more than 15 points in the first three games of this series. The season-ending injury to Jamal Murray and now he slowed Porter leaves the Nuggets without complementary scorers for Jokic. The league MVP scored 32 points with 20 rebonds and 10 assists in Game Three — yet they only managed 102 points. They scored 105 and 98 points in Game One and Two. The Under is 8-1-2 in Denver’s last 11 games in the Western Conference Semifinals — and they have played 5 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in the Pepsi Center in Denver. And in the Nuggets’ last 6 games when avenging a double-digit loss at home, Denver has played 5 of these games Under the Total. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (553) and the Denver Nuggets (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-21 |
Nets v. Bucks UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
96-107 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (551) and the Milwaukee Bucks (552) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (51-28) won their first game in this series with their 86-83 victory at home against the Nets as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Brooklyn (54-26) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Game Three of this series was a fascinating result (from afar). Milwaukee made only 37.8% of their shots in the win which was the lowest field goal percentage of the season. But they were able to win the game via their ferocious play on defense — they held Brooklyn to 36.2% shooting which was their second-best defensive game of the season since Game Two of the regular season (77 games ago). I track these numbers because I want to identify outlier performances to bet against. In this instance, I suspect those numbers are a harbinger of things to come in this series — they are trends rather than outliers. The Bucks scored only 86 points in Game Two on 44.0% shooting. The four-game sweep against Miami temporarily obscured that Milwaukee has not solved its “wall” problem that opposing teams have used in the postseason to neutralize Giannis Antetokounmpo. With the Bucks playing four shooters outside the 3-point line, the Greek Freak has success in the regular season driving the lane with all the cleared space. But their playoff opponents have not taken the bait but instead, play a wall in the interior — a quasi-roaming 2-3 zone defense — to thwart these potential Antetokounmpo drives. An active Antetokounmpo can challenge this defense — exerting energy and getting to the free-throw line. Or, he can play outside as well and take 3-pointers. Or, he can settle for two-point jump shots just inside the arc. Or, he can drive the lane and dish to his open opponents. None of this works if Giannis is off his game … and Giannis is off his game. He has missed 6 of 19 free throw attempts while hushing the Milwaukee crowd to not cheer “MVP” at the line and twice getting whistled for a ten-second violation as he tries to quiet the demons in his head at the stripe. He has the yips. And his fear of failure at the free-throw line is taking away his ambition to drive. So he settles for jumpers — yet he made only 1 of 8 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. If he takes a shot just inside the arc, the defense has already won given the low probability of that 2-point shot. Antetokounmpo can dish to his teammates — but the team made only 6 of their 31 (19.3%) shots from downtown. The whole team senses their leader’s anxiety. The Plan B to Giannis not making shots is the Bucks’ system that emphasizes maximizing shot value from 3-pointers. The critics love to blame Budenholzer for his inability to adapt — but there is simply little he can turn to. Rather than blaming Budenholzer, maybe he should be credited for getting the most out of the talent available to him. The team needs a reliable complementary scoring option to Giannis — but Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday may be third options being asked to take on the number two role. And what if Antetokounmpo is really not a number one option himself? Blame Budenholzer! Where Budenhozler continues to adapt is on defense — that is the route from which the Bucks can win this series. They have slowed down the high-powered Nets offense to just 107.7 PPG. And the pace is slowing down. After averaging 102.2 possessions per game in the regular season, Milwaukee's pace was 97.7 on Thursday. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 6 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn should have fresh legs on defense — they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. And in their last 35 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Nets have played 24 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight meetings Under the Total. I expect more of the same with the market slow to react to the new realities of this series. 25* NBA 2nd Round ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (551) and the Milwaukee Bucks (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-11-21 |
Suns v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 |
Top |
116-102 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (57-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 123-98 victory at home against the Nuggets as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Denver (51-29) has lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Even with the easy win, the Suns made 47.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They have been an offensive juggernaut in this series against the suspect Nuggets’ defense — they are scoring 125.6 points per 100 possessions in this series. Phoenix has an effective field goal percentage of 59.7% in the first two games while nailing 40.3% of their 3-point attempts. Denver has allowed their opponents to make 42.2% of their shots from behind the arc in the postseason. Chris Paul looks healthy again after playing through that stinger injury. He scored 17 points on 6 of 10 shooting while assisting on another 15 baskets and not committing a turnover. The Suns have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after scoring at least 120 points. They go on the road where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Phoenix has also played 12 of their last 16 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Denver had their worst shooting game in their last four contests by making only 40% of their shots. They return home where they are scoring 117.9 PPG on 48.4% shooting and 37.8% shooting from behind the arc. Unfortunately for head coach Michael Malone, the 47.9% shooting percentage they allowed Phoenix to generate was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. They have allowed the Suns to score at least 112 points in four of their five meetings this season. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. They return home where the Over is 39-19-2 in their last 60 games. They have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging two straight losses against their opponent. 25* NBA 2nd Round ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-09-21 |
Nuggets v. Suns OVER 222 |
Top |
98-123 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (51-28) had their two game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 122-105 loss at Phoenix as a 6-point underdog in the opening game of this series. Phoenix (56-23) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets only made 46.7% of their shots on Monday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. Nikola Jokic was just 10 of 23 from the field in the game for 22 points. It was just the third time in 79 games this season that Jokic’s point total was below his shot attempts number. Jokic did not attempt a free throw attempt either which had only happened four other times this season. Phoenix’s Deandre Ayton was only whistled for one personal foul in his 38 minutes of play. Jokic only had three assists despite averaging 8.3 Assists-Per-Game for the season. He should be more active and aggressive tonight which will help the Nuggets approach or top their 118.6 Points-Per-Game scoring average in the playoffs. Denver has played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Over is 18-7-1 in the Nuggets’ last 26 games after a loss by 10 or more points. Michael Porter only scored 15 points in Game One while not playing for most of the second half with a sore back. He has initially listed as questionable, but he has been upgraded as probable to play tonight. He should play better tonight as well in his role as the primary scoring complement to Jokic. Denver stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Denver has played 6 of their last 7 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog. Phoenix has seen the Over go 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 24-9-1 in their last 34 games after a point spread victory. The Suns have also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. Phoenix makes 49.8% of their shots at home this season with them averaging 115.8 PPG. They had balanced scoring against the Nuggets on Monday with four players scoring at least 20 points. Chris Paul looked as healthy as he has since suffering the stinger injury in the Lakers series. He made 8 of 14 shots for 23 points and added 11 assists. The Suns have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total at home against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on the road. Phoenix has also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round Wednesday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-08-21 |
Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
109-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (503) and the Utah Jazz (504) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-28) has won four of their last five games after defeating Dallas in Game Seven of their playoff series by a 126-111 score as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Utah (56-21) has won four in a row after dispatching Memphis in five games with their 126-110 win as a 9-point favorite last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers saved their best 3-point shooting performance for Game Seven as they nailed 20 of their 43 shots (46.5%) en route to a 50% shooting percentage for the game. That was Los Angeles’ best shooting effort in their last four games. They also allowed the Mavericks to nail 49.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five contests. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Clippers’ last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Clippers go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and the Under is 18-8-1 in their last 27 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Utah may be rusty with their shooting touch after the six-day layoff after ending their series with the Grizzlies. They made 51.6% of their shots in Game Five which was the best shooting effort in their previous three games. The Jazz have played five straight Overs — but they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Toal after playing at least four straight Overs. Utah has allowed at least 110 points in five straight contests — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 105 points in at least four straight games. They also have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 105 points in five straight games. The Jazz’s defense will present a problem for the Clippers — they ranked third in the NBA by holding their opponents to 107.5 points per 100 possessions. Utah allowed only 10.9 make 3-pointers per game, the lowest in the league during the regular season. They also lead the NBA by holding their opponents to just 50.4% shooting inside the arc. The Jazz host the first two games of this series where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 24 of their last 35 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Under is 6-0-2 in the Clippers’ last 8 games in Western Conference Semifinals. 25* NBA 2nd Round Tuesday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (503) and the Utah Jazz (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-21 |
Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 221.5 |
|
105-122 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (583) and the Phoenix Suns (584) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (51-27) has won four of their last five games after defeating the Trail Blazers in six games last round with their 126-115 win in Portland as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. Phoenix (55-23) has won three in a row after their 113-100 upset win in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 2-point underdog on Thursday to close that series out in six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets made 51.2% of their shots to close out their series with the Blazers which was the highest field goal percentage in their last four games. Denver also allowed Portland to make 50.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset win by 10 or more points. Denver has also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. The Under is also 6-0-2 in the Nuggets’ last 8 games in the Western Conference Semifinals. Phoenix made 50.7% of their shots in Game Six against the Lakers which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. They also saw Los Angeles make 41.8% of their shots which was actually the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Suns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset victory against a divisional foe. Phoenix has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored. The Under is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix will be looking to avenge a 120-112 loss at Denver on January 23rd — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court. 10* NBA Denver-Phoenix TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (583) and the Phoenix Suns (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-21 |
Bucks v. Nets OVER 235 |
Top |
86-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (581) and the Brooklyn Nets (582) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (50-27) had their four-game winning streak snapped with their 115-107 loss at Brooklyn as a 3.5-point underdog in Game One of this series on Saturday. Brooklyn (53-25) has won three straight games as well as 10 of their last 11 contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks endured the combination of some bad shooting luck and just an underachieving effort on the offensive end of the court on Saturday. They made only 6 of their 30 shots from behind the arc. They missed 8 of their 19 free throw attempts. They shot just 44.6% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Milwaukee should approach their 48.6% field goal percentage along with their 38.3% mark from 3-point land and their 78.3% free throw percentage when on the road tonight. They should be encouraged by the 15 offensive rebounds they pulled down on Saturday. Their size advantage should help them get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities all series — and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez should dominate with their inside scoring. Milwaukee outrebounded the Nets by a 58-47 margin — and they have outrebounded their last five opponents by at least 11 boards. The Bucks have played 41 of their last 63 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 boards. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least 10 boards — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last five opponents by at least 10 boards. We had the Under for Game One — and that game finished well below the 239.5 point total. But Milwaukee has played 21 of their last 33 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. I expected rust for Game One — and now I expect fresh legs and better shooting. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing their second game in five days. Milwaukee stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. The Bucks have also played 5 of their last 7 second games in a playoff series Over the Total. Brooklyn only made 46.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting percentage in their last three games. The team was rattled early after James Harden re-injuring his hamstring. The Nets will adjust to Harden’s absence tonight out of the gate. They play at a faster pace without Harden on the court since he prefers to slow things down when he gets a defender in isolation. And the modus operandi for rookie head coach Steve Nash to any problem is to play at a faster pace (what else from a devotee of Mike D’Antoni?). In the 19 games the Mets played without Harden in the regular season, the average combined score was 236. Brooklyn has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning two straight games at home. The Nets have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 35 of their last 57 games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee’s expected points based on their shot quality from 3-point range adds 15 points to their Total in Game One — and their expected points overall rise to 127. Kris Middleton only made 6 of 23 shots for 13 points — but his expected points based on his shot selection were 27 points. Brooklyn’s shot quality produced 123.5 expected points. Given the pace of play in Game One which I do not expect to change, the Regression Gods should see this game finish Over the Total. The Bucks have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing at Brooklyn. 25* NBA 2nd Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (581) and the Brooklyn Nets (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-06-21 |
Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 211.5 |
|
111-126 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (573) and the Los Angeles Clippers (574) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (45-33) looks to bounce back from their 104-97 loss at home against the Clippers as a 3-point underdog in Game Six. Los Angeles (50-28) has won three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 7-1-1 in the Clippers’ last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Head coach Tyron Lue has made some critical adjustments in this series to slow down the Mavericks’ dynamic offensive attack. He decided to simply not play Ivica Zubic when Luka Doncic is on the court since he was getting torched on the pick-and-roll. Going with a small lineup of Reggie Jackson and Nicolas Batum for Zubic and Patrick Beverley has been a game-changer for the Clippers. Beverley is not the same player on defense — and he has never been much of a scorer, so he is a liability if he has lost his defensive prowess. And now facing elimination, Kawhi Leonard is finally defending Doncic — he held him to 2 of 6 shooting in the times he guarded him on Friday. I expect Leonard to take on this defensive assignment even more for this Game Seven. The Clippers held the Mavericks to 41.6% shooting which was the highest field goal percentage that Dallas has managed in the last three games. Los Angeles has played 24 of their last 32 home games Under the Total after holding their last three opponents to no higher than 42% shooting. The Under is 7-1-1 in the Clippers’ last 9 games at home. The Mavericks were on fire with their 3-point shooting by making 47.2% and 52.9% of their 3-pointers in the first two games in this series. But the Regression Gods made their appearance and the Mavs have not been the same from behind the arc. They made only 11 of their 34 shots (32.4%) of their 3-pointers in Game Six. Dallas goes back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Additionally, the Mavericks have played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 22 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, Dallas has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog, the Mavericks have played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. Dallas has also played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 10* NBA Dallas-LA Clippers ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (573) and the Los Angeles Clippers (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-06-21 |
Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
128-124 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (571) and the Philadelphia 76ers (572) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (45-32) has won eight of their last nine games after their 103-89 victory at New York as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday to close out that series in five games. Philadelphia (53-24) has won six of their last seven games with their 129-112 victory against Washington as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday to end that series in five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Atlanta made a dramatic improvement once Nate McMillan became their head coach midseason — and the team is playing much better on the defensive end of the court. The Hawks have held their last eight opponents to no better than 44.2% shooting — and six of their last seven opponents have not topped 42% shooting. The rest should help this team as they have played 6 straight Unders when playing their second game in seven days. But the offensive attack for this team wanes when they are on the road. Atlanta averaged 119.3 points per 100 possessions at home during the regular season — but that mark dropped to them scoring only 104.0 points per 100 possessions when on the road. The Hawks have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Atlanta has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total as a dog. Philadelphia has played 35 of their last 51 home games Under the Total after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. The team will likely be without Joel Embiid who is nursing a meniscus tear in his right knee. Embiid plays a critical role for the team on both ends of the court — but his impact is probably more important on offense. Going into Game Five of the Washington series, the 76ers were scoring +11.2 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court this season. In that series (after Game Four), the Sixers have scored +38 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid playing. They were scoring only 104.9 points per 100 possessions without Embiid in this series (after Game Four) with a 49.4% effective field goal percentage. Philly torched the defensively challenged Wizards by making 51.2% of their shots on Wednesday — but Washington loves to play at a fast pace which helped them get open looks. Atlanta slows the pace down — so getting good looks will be more of a challenge. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals — and they have played 3 of their last 4 opening games to a new series Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Embiid is going to start this afternoon. Frankly, I am not sure how effective he will be on the offensive end of the court — but his presence protecting the rim will probably help our Under play, overall. These teams last played on April 30th when the Sixers crashed Atlanta at home by a 126-104 score. Atlanta has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (571) and the Philadelphia 76ers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-21 |
Bucks v. Nets UNDER 240 |
|
107-115 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Brooklyn Nets (562) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (50-26) has won seven of their last eight games after sweeping against the Heat in four games after their 120-103 victory on the road in Miami as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Brooklyn (52-25) returns to the court for the first time since Tuesday after they completed their four-game sweep of Boston in Round One of the playoffs with their 123-109 victory as a 12.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks’ closing game with the Heat finished Over the 223 point total — and they have played 28 of their last 44 games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Over the Total. They hit the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. Milwaukee has also played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last six opening games to a new playoff series, the Bucks have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Brooklyn has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They host this game where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams may be a bit rusty in this opening game after a long layoff. Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Brooklyn has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing with at least three days of rest. With the Total installed in the high 230s, it does not take too many missed shots and slowed possessions for this opening game to finish below the number. 10* NBA Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Brooklyn Nets (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-04-21 |
Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
104-97 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (557) and the Dallas Mavericks (558) in Game Six of the Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-28) looks to stave off elimination after losing Game Five of this series with their 105-100 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Dallas (45-32) returns home with the opportunity to close out this series with their 3-2 lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have palled 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. And in their last 7 games played with one day of rest, the Under is 5-1-1. Los Angeles hits the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Furthermore, the Clippers have played 18 of their last 26 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Under is 10-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 15 games as a favorite — and the Under is 9-2-2 in their last 13 games when favored in the playoffs. Dallas benefited from a resurgent performance from Luka Doncic who rebounded from his subpar 9 of 24 shooting mark in Game Four with a 42 point night on Wednesday which included him nailing 6 of 12 shots from behind the arc. Doncic also assisted on 14 baskets in Game Four — he scored or assisted on all but six of the Mavericks’ field goals. He clearly benefited from the extra second day of rest. But this game is being played with one day of rest — will Doncic be able to recover from his injured neck that seemed to hold him back in Game Four? This is Dallas’ fourth game in the last ten days — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing just their fourth game in ten days. The Mavericks held the Clippers to 41.2% shooting on Wednesday. Head coach Rick Carlisle had this team playing better on the defensive end of the court to close out the regular season. While the Mavs ranked 21st in the season in Defensive Efficiency, they were 13th in that metric over their last 15 games. They return home where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Dallas has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that played at the 26th and 28th slowest paces in the league in the regular season. That helps explain why they have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in Dallas Under the Total. The Clippers have played 26 of their last 41 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (557) and the Dallas Mavericks (558) in Game Six of the Western Conference Quarterfinals series. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-02-21 |
Wizards v. 76ers UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
112-129 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (537) and the Philadelphia 76ers (538) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Washington (36-42) kept their season alive on Monday with their 122-114 upset victory against the 76ers as an 8.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (52-24) had been on a five-game winning streak.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid for at least this game after he injured his back early in the game on Monday. He only played 11:24 minutes of the game. His absence played a large role in Philly shooting only 41.7% from the field. Embiid plays a critical role for the team on both ends of the court — but his impact is probably more important on offense. The 76ers score +11.2 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court this season. In this series, the Sixers have scored +38 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid playing. They are scoring only 104.9 points per 100 possessions without Embiid in this series with a 49.4% effective field goal percentage. As it is, Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 76ers have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Philadelphia has also played 35 of their last 50 home games Under the Total after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. Washington got 12 first quarter points from Davis Bertans to keep them competitive early in the game. But Bertans later suffered a calf strain that will likely keep him out the rest of this series. He is critical to the Wizards’ offense since he is the team’s best 3-pointer shooter — he made 39.4% of his shots from behind the arc in the regular season. His long distance shooting helps to open up space for Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook to slash to the basket. Washington only made 35.6% of their 3-pointers in the regular season -- ranking 24th in the league — even with a healthy Bertans. Washington has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win as an underdog getting at least 7 points. The Wizards have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Washington has also played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: In the 10 games in late March that the Sixers played without Embiid, 7 of these games finished Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when favored. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (537) and the Philadelphia 76ers (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-21 |
76ers v. Wizards UNDER 231 |
Top |
114-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Washington Wizards (512) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (52-23) has won five games in a row with their 132-103 road victory against the Wizards as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Washington (35-42) has lost eight of their last nine games as they face elimination trailing 0-3 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers made 58.6% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting percentage for them in their last 68 games. While I appreciate that the Wizards have no answer for Joel Embiid, they are not likely to shoot that well from the field again tonight. Philadelphia is averaging 125.7 PPG on 54.5% shooting from the field in this series. The last team to do that was the 1985 Los Angeles Lakers with Magic Johnson and Kareem-Abdul Jabbar. It is simply very difficult to continue shooting and scoring at such a prolific rate — even against mediocre defensive teams. And if the Sixers are winning this game easily, head coach Doc Rivers is likely to rest his starters to ensure nothing happens injury-wise before their showdown with Milwaukee in the next round of the playoffs. As it is, Philadelphia has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road. The 76ers have also played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 15 road games as a favorite, Philadelphia has played 12 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, the 76ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series. Washington should play better on defense — the Sixers’ 58.6% field goal percentage was their highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 69 games. The Wizards were playing better on defense to close out the regular season. Once they got back to full health, Washington went on a 17 of 22 winning streak where they ranked eighth in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss at home by 10 or more points. The Wizards have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. And in their last 21 games after just a point spread loss, Washington has played 15 of these games Under the Total. The Wizards only made 39.6% of their shots on Saturday — and they have a fundamental problem in this series. Washington lives close to the basket on offense — they led the NBA in the regular season with the most shot attempts and the highest field goal percentage from three feet to ten feet from the basket. But with Joel Embiid patrolling the paint, the Sixers have a rim protector that is stifling the Wizards’ attack. Washington stays at home for Game Four where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 220s. Additionally, the Wizards have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Russell Westbrook and Ish Smith are both questionable for this game with injuries. Westbrook is dealing with a right ankle sprain. If they don’t play, the offensive attack for the Wizards will be shorthanded. Even if they play, their injuries may limit their shooting effectiveness. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when hosting the 76ers. 25* NBA 1st Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Washington Wizards (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-21 |
Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 221 |
Top |
106-81 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (48-27) won the first game in this series on Friday with their 118-108 victory at Dallas as a 2.5-point road favorite as a 2.5-point favorite. Dallas (44-31) holds a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have improved their shooting from the field in each game in this series after making 57.1% of their shots in Game Three. That was the highest field goal percentage for this Los Angeles team in their last 20 games. The Clippers made only 44.9% of their shots in Game One. Even with head coach Tyron Lue substituting defense for offense with his benching of Patrick Beverley for Reggie Jackson, LA is due for some regression on offense. The Clippers have been scoring at an unsustainable 127.5 points per 100 possession rate in this series. The Under is 5-1-1 in Los Angeles’ last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Clippers have also seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. Los Angeles stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 9 playoff games when favored. Dallas made 20 of their 39 shots from behind the arc in the losing effort on Friday. They are making 50.5% of their shots from distance in this series which is simply unsustainable — especially if they continue to launch 36.3 shots from 3-point land per game as they have in the first three games in this series. The Mavericks made only 36.2% of their 3-pointers in the regular season — and the Clippers were sixth-best in the NBA by holding their opponents to 35.5% shooting from behind the arc. Luka Doncic is dealing with a neck issue as well — so while he will likely play, his super-human shooting skills may not be as spectacular in this Game Four. The Dallas is defense ranked only 21st for the season in Defensive Efficiency — but they improved to 13th over the last 15 games of the regular season. Head coach Rick Carlisle can get his group to play better on that end of the court. The Mavericks have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on their home court. They have also played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Mavericks have played 12 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on their home court. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-21 |
Knicks v. Hawks UNDER 209.5 |
Top |
96-113 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (43-32) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Friday with their 105-94 victory against the Knicks as a 4.5-point favorite. New York (42-33) trails in the series by a 2-1 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knicks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. New York has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Julius Randle is struggling to score in this series. After carrying the Knicks on offense all season, he may be tired. After scoring only 14 points on 2 of 15 shooting on Friday, he is shooting only 30% from the field this season. Atlanta getting DeAndre Hunter back for the postseason after he was injured for most of the season has also played a big role as Hunter is an outstanding defender. The Hawks improved by 7.4 points per 100 possessions on defense with Hunter on the court during the regular season. New York is making only 39.9% from the field in this series. Head coach Tom Thibodeau finally made the inevitable move to put Derrick Rose in the starting lineup for Elfrid Payton who has been a +/- nightmare. Thibs also inserted Taj Gibson in for Nerlens Noel in the starting five. The downside of these moves is that the scoring punch from the Knicks’ second unit is now gone. The formula for New York to win this game is from defense — the DNA of Thibodeau’s coaching. They allowed Atlanta to make 51.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Knicks will play better on defense -- but, unfortunately for them, their 36.2% shooting percentage in Game Three is probably close to who they are in the intensity of the playoffs. They just do not have enough reliable scoring options. Yet, they can return to playing like the team that ranked fourth in the regular season by holding their opponents to scoring only 107.8 points per 100 possessions. They stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. New York has also played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. And in their last 17 games with the Total set at 200 or higher, the Knicks have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Atlanta’s 51.9% shooting on Friday was fueled by them margin 16 of their 27 shots from behind the arc. They are not likely to make 59% of their 3-pointers again tonight. The Hawks have played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total on their home court after a win. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Hawks’ defense has improved since Nate McMillan took over in March. They have held their opponents to just 35.2% shooting from behind the arc under McMillan. They stay at home where they have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 17 of their last 23 home games Under the Total when favored. They also have played 19 of their last 25 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Additionally, the Knicks have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 25* NBA 1st Round Sunday ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-28-21 |
Nets v. Celtics OVER 227 |
Top |
119-125 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (563) and the Boston Celtics (564) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (50-24) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 130-108 victory at home against Boston as an 8.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (37-38) has lost seven of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Big Three of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving have been the offensive juggernaut many observers expected when they joined together this season. The Nets are scoring at an incredible 140 points per 100 possession rate so far in this series against an overmatched Celtics’ defense. They made 52.3% of their shots on Tuesday while nailing 17 of their 38 shots (45%) from behind the arc. And while the Brooklyn defense has held Boston to just 106.5 points per 100 possessions, I expect their defensive efforts to wane a bit as they did in the regular season now that this series seems to be well in hand. The Nets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win against an Atlantic Division rival. Brooklyn raced out to a 71-47 halftime lead in the game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. The Nets have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning two in a row against divisional rivals. Brooklyn goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. They have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Boston should show fight in this game — and that likely means a better effort on offense after making only 42.4% of their shots on Tuesday. Returning home should help where they are making 47.2% of their shots. I am skeptical that the Celtics can do much to stop this Nets’ offense — they really missed Jaylen Brown who was one of the team’s best on-the-ball defenders. Boston ranked a middling 13th in the league in Defensive Rating during the regular season but they fall to 23rd in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games without Brown. The Celtics have played 36 of their last 52 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 11 of their last 13 home games Over the Total after a loss on the road by double-digits. They also have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a loss to a division opponent. This team under head coach Brad Stevens rarely tightens things up on defense after a bad effort. The Over is 20-8-1 in Boston’s last 29 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Now they return home where they have played 6 straight Overs — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Kemba Walker is questionable with a knee bone bruise. The Boston offensive attack should still be fine with Payton Pritchard playing more minutes — he averages 13.5 PPG per a 24.6 minutes rate.
FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog under Stevens. 25* NBA 1st Round ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (563) and the Boston Celtics (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-21 |
Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 227 |
Top |
120-115 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (48-26) evened this series at 1-1 with their 128-109 victory as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Portland (43-31) has still won seven of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Trail Blazers do not have an answer on defense to Nikola Jokic — and the Nuggets were committed to exploiting this vulnerability on Monday. Jokic scored 38 points while making 15 of his 20 shots inside the arc. Head coach Michael Malone made an interesting adjustment for Game Two by having his two guards stand in the corner to create a de-facto three-on-three game which opened up space for Jokic to operate in the paint. This spacing also helped Denver convert 12 of their 28 shots from behind the arc (42.9%). The Trail Blazers are at a significant size disadvantage in this series. Michael Porter is only making 25% of his 3-pointers in this series after leading the team with a 44.5% shooting mark from behind the arc during the regular season — so the scoring ceiling is higher for this team. The extra day of rest will help the Nuggets’ scoring attack — they have played 4 straight Overs when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, Denver has played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog. And in their last 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Portland has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. The Blazers are making 47.6% of their shots in this series along with 36.5% of their 3-pointers — and they can do more. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum have combined to score 63 and 55 points in this series. The Nuggets are missing Jamal Murray who provided the team’s best on-the-ball defender against opposing guards — and Will Barton is still out tonight with his injury which leaves them very thin when it comes to backcourt defensive options. Portland returns home where they have played 20 of their last 29 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Blazers have also played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and Portland has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when hosting the Nuggets. Denver can’t cover the Blazers’ backcourt — and Portland can’t cover the Nuggets’ frontcourt. This Game Three should be a wild one. 25* NBA Northwest Division Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-21 |
Bucks v. Heat OVER 224 |
|
113-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (551) and the Miami Heat (552) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (48-26) has won five of their last six games after their 132-98 victory in Game Two of this series on Monday. Miami (40-34) trails in this series by a 2-0 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. Milwaukee is owning the glass in this series. After out-rebounding the Heat in Game One by +13 boards, they won the rebounding battle by a 61 to 36 margin on Monday. The Bucks have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after out-rebounding their last opponent by at least 15 boards — and they have played 40 of their last 60 games Over the Total after out-rebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 boards. Milwaukee will have fresh legs with the extra day off — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when favored. Furthermore, the Bucks have played 8 of their last 9 playoff games Over the Total when leading in the series — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored. Miami has played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total when rebounding from a double-digit loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. Additionally, the Heat have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Head coach Erik Spoelstra will not be deterred from embracing a fast pace — his belief is that up-tempo plays into his team’s strength given the depth of his roster. Miami should shoot better than 8 of 29 (29%) from downtown as they did in Game Two. Now after playing their four games on the road, they return home for the first time since May 13th — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total after playing at least the last seven games on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when hosting a team with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has lost three straight games to the Bucks this season — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total when motivated by triple revenge. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (551) and the Miami Heat (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-21 |
Hawks v. Knicks UNDER 213 |
Top |
92-101 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (543) and the New York Knicks (544) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (42-31) has won five games in a row after their 107-105 victory in Madison Square Garden against the Knicks as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. New York (41-32) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Atlanta allowed the Knicks to make 44.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Hawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a narrow win by six points or less. Atlanta was energized by the return of De’Andre Hunter to the court on Sunday after he missed much of the regular season to injury. Hunter is an excellent on-the-ball defender. The Hawks hold their opponents to -7.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when they have Hunter on the court. Hunter’s defense of the Knicks’ Julius Randle played a large role in his making only 6 of 23 shots from the field in Game One. Atlanta has improved on defense since Nate McMillan took over as head coach — they are third in the NBA by holding their opponents to just 34.9% shooting from downtown. The Knicks has made 42.5% of their 3-pointer since the start of April which was the best mark in the league — but they only made 10 of 30 (33%) shots from behind the arc in Game One. Against this Hawks’ defense jumpstarted by the return of Hunter, I don’t see New York approaching their recent 3-point shooting numbers in this series. Atlanta’s fresh legs will only help their defensive efforts. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 5 straight Unders when playing just their second game in seven days. Additionally, Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. New York allowed the Hawks to make 46.7% of their shots which tied the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 11 games. The Knicks have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.0% — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 41.7% shooting clip even after Sunday’s game. New York has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. They are not likely to get 27 points again from Alec Burks who made 9 of his 13 shots in Game One. But head coach Tom Thibodeau should make some adjustments on defense for this contest. The Knicks have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss of three points or less. 25* NBA Wednesday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (543) and the New York Knicks (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-21 |
Celtics v. Nets UNDER 233 |
|
93-104 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (505) and the Brooklyn Nets (506) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (37-36) has won two of their last three games after their 118-100 victory over Washington in the Play-In Tournament as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Brooklyn (48-24) has won five games in a row with their 123-109 win against Cleveland as a 13-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics have played 27 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. Boston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Celtics go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last five games Under the Total as an underdog. Boston will really miss Jaylen Brown on both ends of the court in this series — but they are still a better defensive team than their season numbers indicate. Marcus Smart is their best on-the-ball defender — and he was injured for much of the season. Head coach Brad Stevens is not going to have his team attempt to run-and-gun with the Nets — they cannot win that game. Instead, he will likely want to slow the pace down and see if Jaylen Brown can keep his team in the game while he out-coaches Steve Nash and Mike D’Antoni on the Brooklyn sidelines. Boston has played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total when an underdog. Brooklyn has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. And while they have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least four straight games. Brooklyn’s defense is improving — while the Cavaliers made 44.7% of their shots on Sunday, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Nets have made at least 47.1% of their shots in five straight games — but they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after shooting at least 47% from the field in five straight.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams just played on April 23rd when the Nets won by a 109-104 score. The Total closed at 224.5 for that game that finished Under — that was the 4th straight Under between these two teams. With the number being bet up into the 230s, the value is with the Under. 10* NBA Boston-Brooklyn ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (505) and the Brooklyn Nets (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-21 |
Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 217.5 |
|
113-103 |
Win
|
102 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 4:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (509) and the Los Angeles Clippers (510) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (42-30) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 136-121 upset loss at Minnesota last Sunday. Los Angeles (47-25) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 117-112 upset loss at Oklahoma City as an 8-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas allowed the Timberwolves to make 54.4% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games. Head coach Rick Carlisle has seen improvement with his team’s play on the defensive end of the court in the second half of the season. While ranking 21st in the NBA in Defensive Rating for the season, they improved to 13th over their last 15 games (and that ranking is a bit skewed against them once their seeding was set and they rested players). The Mavericks have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. Dallas has also played 6 straight Unders when playing with at least three days of rest — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when not playing more than their fourth game in ten days. The fresh legs should help the Mavericks defense in this one. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last 24 games as an underdog overall, Dallas has played 19 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles allowed the Thunder to make 53.2% of their shots after Houston to make 53.5% of their shots in their previous game. The Clippers should clean things up on defense — they ranked 8th in the league in Defensive Rating this season. That solid Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number should improve substantially in the playoffs with everyone healthy and back on the court. Patrick Beverley missed 35 games. Kawhi Leonard missed 20 games. Paul George missed 18 games. Serge Ibaka missed 31 games. Those four players are all outstanding defenders. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The time off should help this veteran team — they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest, and they have played 25 of their last 35 games Under the Total when not playing more than their fourth game in ten days. They return home where the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games. The Under is also 7-3-1 in the Clippers’ last 11 games as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders including the Mavericks’ 105-89 victory at home as a 2-point underdog on March 17th in the last meeting between these two teams. The Total was set at 225 for that game so that result finished well below the number. Los Angeles has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss on the road. 10* NBA Dallas-LA Clippers ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (509) and the Los Angeles Clippers (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-21-21 |
Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 222 |
|
117-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (579) and the Golden State Warriors (580). THE SITUATION: Memphis (39-34) has won six of their last seven games after their 100-96 win against San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Golden State (39-34) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in their 103-100 loss at Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 5.5-point underdog. The winner of this game inherits the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs and a first-round date with Utah.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a close win by six points or less. They hit the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Memphis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road by three points or less. Additionally, the Warriors have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. Golden State is fifth in the league in Defensive Rating — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have 20 of their last 27 meetings Under the Total. They last played five days ago on Sunday at Golden State where the Warriors won by a 113-101 score. Memphis has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total on the road when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Memphis-Golden State ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (579) and the Golden State Warriors (580). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-20-21 |
Pacers v. Wizards UNDER 239 |
Top |
115-142 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (575) and the Washington Wizards (576). THE SITUATION: Indiana (35-38) has won four of their last six games after their 144-117 win against Charlotte as a 1.5-point favorite in their first game in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday. Washington (34-39) lost their initial Play-In Tournament game on Tuesday in a 118-105 loss at Boston as a 1.5-point underdog. The winner of this game inherits the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Indiana made 16 of their 35 shots (46%) from 3-point range en route to their 55.2% shooting percentage in their victory against the Pacers -- that shooting mark was the best effort in their last seven games. But Indiana has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. The Pacers have also played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after scoring at least 130 points in their last game — and they have played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after a game where at least 245 points were scored. Indiana raced out to 40 points in the opening quarter against the Hornets which allowed them to control the pace and tempo of that game. But I do not expect things to be as easy tonight on the road in Washington — and I suspect the pressure of a single-elimination playoff game will negatively impact their shooting. With the Total in the high-230s, it only takes one bad quarter where they score under 25 points to ruin Over bets. I am well aware of the Over Train that Indiana has been on since they lost their defensive presence in the middle in Myles Turner. But the average combined score for the Pacers’ 26 games without Turner being 241.3 is why the over/under is so high for this game. The value is simply with the Under at this point. The Malcolm Brogdon factor makes the Under even stronger. The point guard missed all ten games in May with his hamstring injury before playing 21:20 minutes on Tuesday. He should play tonight but will not be at full strength. Two things with this. First, Indiana tends to play at a slower pace with Brogdon on the court since he is more of a traditional point guard. Second, because the Pacers will need Brodgon late in the game if the game is tight, head coach Nate Bjorkgren will likely want to not push him too much so he is still viable late in the game. Bjorkgren will still not have the services of Caris LeVert who remains out given COVID protocols. As it is, Indiana has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. And while the Pacers' final regular-season game was a 125-113 victory against Toronto on Sunday, they have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after two straight double-digit wins. The Wizards are a high-scoring team that scores 116.4 PPG — but Indiana has played 35 of their last 54 road games in the second half of the season Under the Total against teams who are scoring at least 110 PPG. Washington has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points on the road. The Wizards return home where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when favored. Washington also has a wounded guard with Bradley Beal not 100% with his hamstring.
FINAL TAKE: It sure might be tempting for bettors to take the Over after the three games between these two teams resulted in 265, 295, and 256 combined points. The Pacers allow their opponents to make 46.8% of their shots which results in 115.4 PPG — and the Wizards have played 25 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 46% or higher. Washington has also played 32 of their last 55 games Under the Total against teams who allow at least 110 PPG. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (575) and the Washington Wizards (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-19-21 |
Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 220 |
Top |
100-103 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (569) and the Los Angeles Lakers (570). THE SITUATION: Golden State (39-33) has won six straight games after their 113-101 win against Memphis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (42-30) has won five in a row with their 110-98 win at New Orleans on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. They go back on the road where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total. Golden State has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Steph Curry may get the most of the attention for this team but their defensive prowess has been under-appreciated. The Warriors are fifth in the NBA in Defensive Rating. A slimmed-down Draymond Green has been a beast. And in the team has played better on the defensive end of the court after the season-ending injury to rookie James Wiseman as it has allowed head coach Steve Kerr to give more minutes to veterans who are better on defense. Golden State leads the league in Defensive Rating in their last 20 games which has fueled their late-season run. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. They have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 20 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. The Lakers play outstanding defense — they are second in the NBA by allowing 108.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. They also defend the perimeter by limiting their opponents to 36% shooting from 3-point land which is -1.2% below the league average. Los Angeles is in as good a position as possible to slow down Curry. Dennis Schroder is a pesky on-the-ball defender. LeBron James can play free safety amidst the Warriors’ attempts to pick-and-roll. Anthony Davis can play center in a small-ball lineup which gives Golden State another lengthy wing on the perimeter but without sacrificing Davis’ rim protection since he can defend the wing as well given his agility. Frank Vogel is an experienced defensive tactician as a head coach. And the roster is filled with veterans who have played the Steve Kerr motion offense designed to get Curry (and Klay Thompson) open looks. But the Lakers’ offense is not elite. They rank 24th in the league in Offensive Rating this season. Granted, those numbers include a large number of games where they did not have James and/or Davis. But their Offensive Rating with James on the court is 112.4 and 112.5 with Davis on the court — and both those numbers translate into just a 14th ranking in the league. Even at full strength, the Lakers’ offense is just middle-of-the-road. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State wants to avenge a 128-97 loss to the Lakers on March 15th — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road avenging a same-season loss. Los Angeles held the Warriors to only 91 points in their 26-point win on February 28th. Defending Curry is not a new challenge for the Lakers. Even if he gets his points, Curry still needs his teammates to step up. Holding the Warriors to 97 and 91 points in their last two meetings is a testament to how effective the Lakers are in frustrating Curry’s ability to cook in the Golden State offense. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (569) and the Los Angeles Lakers (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-21 |
Clippers v. Hornets UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
113-90 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (563) and the Charlotte Hornets (564). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (46-23) has won three of their last four games with their 115-96 victory at Toronto as a 13.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Charlotte (33-36) has lost three of their last four games after their 117-112 loss at home to Denver as a 6-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 5-0-1 in the Clippers’ last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after a win on the road. Tyron Lue’s team has tightened things up on defense as they prepare for the rigor of the postseason. They have held their last five opponents to just 101.2 Points-Per-Game on 44.0% shooting which is a significant improvement over tighter 107.8 PPG and 46.3% defensive numbers of the season. The Clippers rank seventh in Defensive Rating for the season but they are fifth-best in the NBA in their last five games. But Los Angeles is scoring just 108.4 PPG in their last five games which is -5.6 PPG below their season average. The Clippers have been an Under Machine nine straight games that finished Under the Total — but the knee-jerk contrarians should take note that they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing at least five straight games Under the Total. Team trends can often serve as the canary in the coal mine regarding a change in approach or effort by a team. Los Angeles stays on the road where they have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road as a favorite. Additionally, the Clippers have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games when favored. Charlotte has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Hornets have lost two in a row, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after they lost two in a row. Charlotte has played four straight games where at least 219 combined points were scored — but they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. They stay at home where they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and the Under is 18-7-2 in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Charlotte is missing key pieces with Gordon Hayward and Miles Bridges out with injuries -- that accounts for 32.0 PPG that they have been trying to replace. Additionally, the Hornets have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers won the last meeting between these two teams by a 125-98 score on March 20th — and Charlotte has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (563) and the Charlotte Hornets (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-21 |
Heat v. Celtics OVER 224.5 |
Top |
129-121 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534). THE SITUATION: Miami (37-31) has won five of their last six games with their 130-124 win at Boston as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Boston (35-33) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Miami raced out to 79 points in the first half on Sunday — and this rematch will likely be another track meet. Playing up-tempo basketball is what both head coaches are embracing with the postseason approaching. Erik Spoelstra likely thinks this style gives his team an edge given their deep bench. Finally healthy and having overcome the multiple COVID cases that slowed them down in the first half of the season, the Heat are scoring 121.8 PPG in their last five games while making 51.9% of their shots. Their opponents are scoring 116.2 PPG on 51.0% shooting during this span — but Miami is winning with this formula. The Heat have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least 130 points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a favorite. The Heat have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when favored overall — and they have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. Boston has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Celtics allowed Miami to make 57.3% of their shots — but a significant improvement on defense from this team is unlikely. The Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after allowing at least 125 points — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing at least 130 points in their last contest. Boston has also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total on their home court after allowing at least 120 points in their last one. Brad Stevens may have his team play up-tempo because he does not think his team can find success relying on their defense that ranks 28th in the NBA in Defensive Rating. To make matters worse, the Celtics’ lost their best or second-best defensive player in Jaylen Brown (Marcus Smart may still be a better defender, but the gap was narrowing) to a season-ending wrist injury. They have allowed their last five opponents to score 123.2 PPG on 48.8% shooting with Brown missing the last three of those games. But Boston is scoring 123.4 PPG in their last five games on 48.6% shooting with the offense centered around Jayson Tatum. The Celtics have played 5 straight games Over the Total at home — and they have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total. Expect more of the same. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-10-21 |
Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
110-115 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (521) and the Memphis Grizzlies (522). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (31-33) has won two of their last three games after their 112-110 victory at Charlotte as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (34-33) has won two of their last three games after their 109-99 win at Toronto as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans shot 46.9% of their shots yesterday which was the highest field goal percentage in their last four games. They hit that number despite being without their top two offensive players in Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram — and both players are not expected to play tonight with Williams out indefinitely with a finger injury and Ingram dealing with an ankle. New Orleans is making only 44.3% of their shots in their last five games as they deal with not having those two scorers. To compound matters, they will also be without Steven Adams in the post with their big man doubtful with a toe injury. The Pelicans have played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. New Orleans has also played a decisive 49 of their last 77 road games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. And in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest, the Pelicans have played 6 of these games Under the Total. New Orleans stays on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Memphis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They return home where they begin a four-game homestand. They have played 34 of their last 48 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Grizzlies have played 22 of their last 32 road games Under the Total when favored. They will be missing some of their scoring punch tonight with Grayson Allen out with an abdominal injury.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis will be looking to avenge a 144-113 loss at home to the Pelicans on February 16th — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points. These two teams have also played 13 of their last 16 games in New Orleans Under the Total. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (521) and the Memphis Grizzlies (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-07-21 |
Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
120-127 |
Loss |
-111 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the Utah Jazz (562). THE SITUATION: Denver (44-22) has won six of their last seven games with their 113-97 victory against New York as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Utah (48-18) has won three straight games after their 126-94 win against San Antonio as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Denver has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Nuggets are a different team without Jamal Murray who is out the season with his torn ACL — and the current injuries to point guard Monte Morris and shooting guard Will Barton have left head coach Michael Malone to rely on Argentinian Facundo Campazzo to handle the point guard duties. The 30-year-old rookie is not a dynamic scoring threat — he averaged 7.9 PPG in April in his 27.1 minutes per game before averaging 11.3 PPG in his three games so far in May. Denver made only 37.8% of their shots against the Knicks — and they are making just 45.5% of their shots in their last five games which have resulted in 109.4 PPG. Those marks are far below their 115.1 PPG scoring average and 48.5% offensive numbers for the season. But Campazzo gives the Nuggets a defensive presence they need. They held New York to just 38.4% shooting on Wednesday. Denver has held their last five opponents to 103.4 PPG on 44.7% shooting which is -6.3 PPG below their season average and over two percentage points better than their defensive field goal percentage of 46.8%. The Nuggets are sixth in the NBA in Offensive Rating — but they have dropped to 16th in their last 15 games and 18th in their last 10 games in Offensive Efficiency. On the other hand, while Denver ranks 11th in Defense Rating for the season, they improve to sixth in their last 15 games and fourth in their last 10 games in Defensive Efficiency. The Nuggets have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight Unders on the road against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Utah has played 15 of their last 19 games at home after a win by at least 20 points. The Jazz made 55.7% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting mark in their last four games — but they have then played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Utah has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. The Jazz stay at home for their fourth straight game — they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning three in a row at home. They have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They are undermanned on the offensive end tonight as well with Mike Conley out with his hamstring injury. Donovan Mitchell is out the year with an injured ankle. Utah has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Jazz will be looking to avenge a 128-117 upset loss at Denver as a 3-point road favorite on January 31st — Utah has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the Utah Jazz (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-06-21 |
Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
94-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (545) and the Los Angeles Clippers (546). THE SITUATION: The Lakers (37-28) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 93-89 upset win against Denver as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. The Clippers (44-22) ended their three-game losing streak with a 105-100 victory at home against Toronto as an 11.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Additionally, they have played 29 of their last 42 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games — and this includes them playing eight of their last eleven games Under the Total after dropping three of four this season. The Lakers have only covered the point spread once in their last five games — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The Lakers are the technical road team but they are playing on their shared home court with the Clippers at the Staples Center. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog at Staples. Additionally, the Lakers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. They will be missing two important pieces to their offensive attack with both LeBron James and Dennis Schroder out for this game. The Clippers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Clippers made 52% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. The Clippers did not cover the point spread against the Raptors in what was the fifth straight game where they did not meet point spread expectations. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in at least four straight games. The Clippers have also played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing no more than their fourth game in the last ten days. They are only scoring 104.4 PPG on 44.9% shooting over their last five games which is almost 10 points lower than their 114.2 PPG scoring average for the season. They have played six straight Unders — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight Unders. They have played 4 straight Unders at the Staples Center — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored at the Staples Center. The Clippers are without Serge Ibaka with his back injury and Amir Coffey who is in quarantine.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers will be looking to avenge a 104-86 loss to the Clippers on April 4th. They have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when avenging a loss. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (545) and the Los Angeles Clippers (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-06-21 |
Nets v. Mavs UNDER 235 |
|
109-113 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (535) and the Dallas Mavericks (536). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (43-23) has lost three in a row with their 124-118 upset loss at Milwaukee as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Dallas (37-28) has won four of their last five games with their 127-113 upset victory at Miami as a 1-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets made 48.8% of their shots in their second straight loss to the Bucks on Tuesday after also losing to them on Sunday. That was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Brooklyn has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss. They stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. The Nets have also played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as a favorite. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Mavericks return home where they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total. Dallas has also played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total agains teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Mavericks will be without Kristaps Porzingis who has been downgraded to out with his lingering knee issues. Dallas is also without Maxi Kleber who is out indefinitely with an Achilles. The Mavericks have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (535) and the Dallas Mavericks (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-05-21 |
Spurs v. Jazz UNDER 218.5 |
|
94-126 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR WEDNESDAY, 5/5:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Wednesday was with Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs and the Utah Jazz. Utah (47-18) has won three of four after their 110-99 win against the Spurs as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. That game finished Under the 220 point total — the Jazz have now played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Utah has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a favorite. San Antonio (31-33) has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Spurs have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing at Utah against the Jazz. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* NHL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month last night with the Edmonton-Vancouver Under to further their 8 of 12 (67%) NHL run and their 7 of 10 (70%) NHL TOTALS TEAR! Now Frank furthers his 13 of 20 (65%) NHL Game of the Month/Year run with ANOTHER OUTSTANDING O/U OPPORTUNITY with his 25* NHL Wednesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year for the Colorado-San Jose O/U winner at 9:38 PM ET! DO NOT MISS IT!
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05-01-21 |
Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 222 |
|
110-104 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the Los Angeles Clippers (546). THE SITUATION: Denver (42-21) has won four in a row after their 121-111 win against Toronto as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (43-21) has lost two games in a row with their 109-101 loss at Phoenix as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight Unders on the road against teams with a winning record at home. The Under is also 31-12-2 in Denver’s last 45 games against teams with a winning record. They face a Clippers team making 48.2% of their shots this season — and the Nuggets have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who are making at least 46% of their shots. Los Angeles made 51.8% of their shots on Wednesday in their loss to Phoenix which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. The Clippers are only making 45.1% of their shots in their last five games despite Wednesday’s effort — and that is resulting in them scoring -6.9 Points-Per-Game below their season average. Los Angeles has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after point spread loss. Additionally, the Clippers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 18-5-3 in their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 43-19-2 in their last 64 meetings — and the Under is 24-8-1 in the last 33 games between these two teams when playing at the Staples Center. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the Los Angeles Clippers (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-01-21 |
Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 233.5 |
|
113-87 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (531) and the Houston Rockets (532). THE SITUATION: Golden State (31-32) has lost two in a row after their 126-114 upset loss at Minnesota as a 4.5-point favorite. Houston (16-47) snapped a five-game losing streak with a 146-136 upset victory against Milwaukee as a 14.5-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets pulled the upset on the strength of their 50% shooting from the field which was tied for the best shooting mark in their last six games. They nailed 25 of their 46 (54%) of their 3-pointers — so expect the Regression Gods to appear tonight as they shoot closer to their 32.8% shooting percentage from behind the arc when playing at home. The Under is 20-8-2 in Houston’s last 30 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 130 points in their last contest. They stay at home where the Under is 35-15-1 in their last 51 games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. The Rockets have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Golden State made 49.4% of their shots in a losing effort on Thursday which was the highest shooting mark in their last three games. The Warriors have also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after a loss on the road. They stay on the road where they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when favored. Draymond Green and Kelly Oubre are questionable with injuries. Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The Warriors have also played 34 of their last 56 games Under the Total with the number at 220 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has won the last two meetings in this series by 108-94 and 125-109 scores. Houston has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge from double-digit losses. 10* NBA Golden State-Houston ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (531) and the Houston Rockets (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-23-21 |
Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 229 |
Top |
97-118 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (577) and the Golden State Warriors (578). THE SITUATION: Denver (38-20) has won four games in a row with their 106-105 win at Portland as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday. Golden State (29-30) has lost two of their last three games with their 118-114 upset loss at Washington as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a narrow win by six points or less. Additionally, Denver has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They did outrebound the Trail Blazers by five boards — that was the fifth straight game where they won the rebounding battle by at least five rebounds. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after outrebounding five straight opponents by at least five rebounds. This team has been playing better on defense even amidst the crushing season-ending injury to Jamal Murray. Over their last five games, Denver ranks 10th in the league in Defensive Rating — and improvement over their ranking of 15th in that metric for the season. Head coach Michael Malone needs Monte Morris to step up at guard to help Michael Porter, Jr. fill the void that the Murray injury created — but Morris is out with a hamstring injury that leaves the Nuggets’ thin in their backcourt. Denver stays on the road where they have played 7 straight Unders against teams with a winning record at home. The Nuggets have also played 4 straight Unders on the road as a favorite. Golden State has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have played 37 of their last 61 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total with the number in the 220s. Golden State is playing elite defense as of late. They have held their last five opponents to 43.8% shooting which has resulted in 108.6 PPG which is -4.8 PPG below their season average. Additionally, the Warriors rank fourth in the NBA over their last five games and during their last ten games in Defensive Rating. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or greater — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (577) and the Golden State Warriors (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-22-21 |
Pistons v. Spurs UNDER 216.5 |
|
91-106 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (559) and the San Antonio Spurs (560). THE SITUATION: Detroit (18-41) has lost two of the last three games after their 127-117 loss at Dallas as a 10.5-point underdog yesterday. San Antonio (28-29) saw their two-game winning streak end yesterday in a 107-87 loss at Miami as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pistons lost last night despite making 50.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. The Under is 3-1-1 in Detroit’s last 5 games after a straight-up loss. The Pistons have also played a decisive 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. San Antonio allowed the Heat to make 47.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Spurs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in San Antonio Under the Total. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (559) and the San Antonio Spurs (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-21 |
Pelicans v. Magic OVER 221 |
|
135-100 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (553) and the Orlando Magic (554). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (25-33) has lost four games in a row after their 134-129 upset loss to Brooklyn as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Orlando (18-40) has lost three straight games with their 112-96 loss at Atlanta as a 12-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games after surrounding at least 125 points in their last contest. New Orleans has suffered four straight upset losses — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, the Pelicans have played two straight Overs while allowing at least 110 points in five straight games. New Orleans has played 19 of their last 24 games Over the Total after allowing at least 110 points in three straight games. The Pelicans have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. They go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games at home — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as a favorite. New Orleans has also played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total when the favorite overall — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games. Orlando has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 10 points — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Magic shot only 39.5% from the field against the Hawks which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. They also held Atlanta to 41.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six contests. Orlando has still allowed at least 112 points in three straight games — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total after allowing at least 110 points in three straight games. The Magic return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. Orlando has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total at home as an underdog. Furthermore, the Magic have played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total with the number at 220 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be looking to avenge a 115-110 upset loss at home to Orlando as a 5.5-point favorite on April 1st — and they have played 12 of their 19 games Over the Total this season when playing with same-season revenge. 10* NBA Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (553) and the Orlando Magic (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-17-21 |
Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 228.5 |
Top |
114-119 |
Loss |
-109 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (561) and the Boston Bruins (562). THE SITUATION: Golden State (28-28) has won four games in a row after their 119-101 win at Cleveland as a 6-point favorite on Thursday. Boston (30-26) has won five in a row with their 121-113 win at Los Angeles against the Lakers on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Golden State has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Warriors are playing their third game on the road since Monday — and they have played 8 straight Unders when playing their third game on the road in five days. They made 51.1% of their shots in Cleveland on Thursday — but they are shooting just 44.9% this season on the road. Golden State has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Warriors have also played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. Furthermore, Golden State has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference opponents — and they have played 30 of their last 49 games Under the Total with the Total in the 220s. Boston has made 56.5% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last 20 games. But the Celtics have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after shooting at least 55% from the field in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 120 points in their last contest. Additionally, Boston has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row. And while the Celtics have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Boston returns home where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total. And they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored. Brad Stevens has this team playing better defense — they rank sixth in the NBA in Defensive Rating over their last ten games.
FINAL TAKE: Injuries may play a role in this game. Robert Williams III is out with a knee injury — and he is starting to gel with the Celtics’ Big Four starters. Jaylen Brown is now questionable with an illness. While Brown is an elite defender, those skills are not essential against the Warriors since Marcus Smart will be the primary defender on Stephen Curry. But if Brown does not play, then Draymond Green will defend Jayson Tatum without a “pick your poison” dilemma. These two teams have played 21 of their last 28 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in Boston. The Warriors may be without Kelly Oubre who is questionable with a wrist. The Celtics won the last meeting at Golden State, 111-107, on February 2nd — and Golden State has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (561) and the Boston Bruins (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-15-21 |
Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 213 |
|
121-113 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (529) and the Los Angeles Lakers (530). THE SITUATION: Boston (29-26) has won four games in a row with their 116-115 win at Portland as a closing 1-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (34-21) has won two of their last three games after their 101-93 win at Charlotte as a 2-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Boston has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Celtics are the road favorite in this one — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when laying the points. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while their win against the Hornets finished well below the 206.5 point total, they have then played 23 of the last 33 games after playing their last game Under the Total. Now after playing their last seven games on the road, the Lakers return home for the first time since March 31st. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after being on the road for a least seven days. The Lakers have also played 6 straight games Under the Total at home as they continue to play without LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
FINAL TAKE: Boston will be looking to avenge a 96-95 loss at home to the Lakers on January 30th — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (529) and the Los Angeles Lakers (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-13-21 |
Hawks v. Raptors OVER 224 |
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108-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
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At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (571) and the Toronto Raptors (572). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (29-25) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 105-101 upset win at Charlotte as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Toronto (21-33) has lost three of their last four games after their 102-96 loss at New York as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a solid technical play despite both teams playing undermanned tonight. The Hawks are without a handful of players — and Trae Young is questionable with a calf injury. The Raptors are without Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet. While these players are great offensive players, their play on the other end of the court tends to get dismissed. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset win on the road. The Hawks stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road as a favorite. Atlanta is scoring 115.6 PPG in their last five games while making 47.7% of their shots despite all their attrition — but they have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.0% of their shots. The Over is 23-9-1 in the Hawks’ last 33 games against teams with a losing record. Atlanta has also played 25 of their last 39 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Raptors have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto will be looking to avenge a 121-120 loss at home (in Florida) to the Hawks on March 11th. The Raptors have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. These two teams have played 5 straight Overs. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (571) and the Toronto Raptors (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-10-21 |
Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 228.5 |
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109-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). THE SITUATION: Houston (14-38) has lost six of their last seven games after their 126-109 loss at Los Angeles against the Clippers as an 11-point underdog on Friday. Golden State (24-28) has lost four of five after their 110-107 upset loss to Washington as a 4.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets allowed the Clippers to make 54.5% of their shots last night which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 15 games. Houston has then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Rockets are dealing with several injuries — most notably Eric Gordon who is out with a groin and John Wall who is questionable with an ankle. That could leave Houston without two of their most reliable scorers. They stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Golden State has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a close loss by three points or less. Additionally, the Warriors have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. Golden State stays at home where they are now 15-10 — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as a favorite. The Warriors have also played 32 of their last 49 home games Under the Total with the number set at 220 or higher. Furthermore, Golden State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Houston is motivated to avenge a 108-94 loss at home to the Warriors on March 17th — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Golden State. 10* NBA Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-02-21 |
Hawks v. Pelicans OVER 212 |
Top |
126-103 |
Win
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100 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
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At 9:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (553) and the New Orleans Pelicans (534). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (24-24) snapped a two-game losing streak last night with their 134-129 upset win in double-overtime at San Antonio as a 1-point underdog. New Orleans (21-26) had their two-game winning streak end last night in a 115-110 loss in overtime to Orlando as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Atlanta held the Spurs to 44.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games under new head coach Nate McMillan. The Hawks have still allowed their last five opponents to make 49.3% of their shots which has resulted in 118.0 PPG for these opponents. Atlanta has allowed at least 108 points in six straight games — and they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing at least 105 points in four straight games. The Hawks have also played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less — and they have played 26 of their last 35 games Over the Total after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. Atlanta’s starters logged in 193:49 minutes last night — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when their starters combined to play at least 160 minutes the day before. The Hawks have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing their third game on the road in five days. Atlanta has played four straight Overs heading into this game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Over the Total. The Hawks conclude their eight-game road trip tonight — they have played straight games Over the Total on the road as an underdog. Atlanta has been hot with their shooting on this trip. They are making 49.8% of their shots in their last five games, which is generating 115.6 PPG. New Orleans only made 43.6% of their shots last night which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last six games. They also held the Magic to make 42.5% of their shots which is the best defensive effort in their last four contests. The Pelicans have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 19 of their last 24 games Over the Total after allowing at least 115 points in their last game — and they have played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a game where at least 225 combined points were scored. The Pelicans’ five starters played 195:54 minutes last night — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total in games when their starters combined to play at least 160 minutes the prior day. New Orleans has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing without rest. The Pelicans are not a good defensive team even under the guidance of a defensive head coach in Stan Van Gundy in his first year with the franchise. New Orleans ranks 28th with their Defensive Rating. The Pelicans have the seventh-best Offensive Rating in the league — and they are making 49.4% of their shots in their last five games. They have scored at least 110 points in three straight games — and they have then played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after scoring at least 110 points in three straight games. They stay at home where they have played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 15 home games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be without Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Lonzo Ball for tonight’s game as they are all dealing with injuries that has compelled Van Gundy to give them the night off after playing yesterday. The Pelicans have still played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored. This is a strong technical play. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (553) and the New Orleans Pelicans (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-31-21 |
Mavs v. Celtics UNDER 225 |
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113-108 |
Win
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100 |
0 h 21 m |
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FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR WEDNESDAY, 3/31:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Wednesday is with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics. Dallas (24-21) snapped a two-game losing streak on Monday with their 127-106 win at Oklahoma City as an 11.5-point favorite. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. The Mavericks have also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boston (23-24) had their two-game losing streak end on Monday in a 115-109 upset loss to New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite. The Celtics stay at home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total. They have also played 4 straight Unders when favored. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer looks to bounce-back from a 1-4 Tuesday in All-Sports (to fall to 6-6 in the last three days) — but he remains on an 81 of 133 (61%) All-Sports run over the last 37 days while maintaining a 59% WINNING CLIP in All-Sports since December 9th (240-165)! Frank is on an 8 of 11 (73%) NBA run — and he has tonight’s Mavericks-Celtics’ ATS winner on ESPN at 7:40 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank! Frank took it on the chin last night — including losing his 25* NHL play on the New Jersey-Boston Under — yet he remains on a 15 of 24 (63%) streak with his highest-rated 25* plays in All-Sports! Frank is on a 53 of 89 (60%) NHL run along with a 95 of 150 (63%) NHL Sides run of underdogs and favorites never priced better than -150 — and now he furthers his 5 of 6 (83%) NHL Game of the Month/Year sides mark with his 25* NHL Bailout Game of the Month! A metaphor for last night? — or if you want ONE MORE WINNER for March — BANK on Frank!
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03-26-21 |
Hawks v. Warriors UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
124-108 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (22-22) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a 110-108 upset loss at Sacramento as a 3-point favorite. Golden State (22-23) has lost three in a row with their 141-119 loss at Sacramento as a 4.5-point underdog last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks lost to the Kings despite making 48.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Atlanta makes only 45.3% of their shots on the road. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Hawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Atlanta had been on an eight-game winning streak since they named Nate McMillan their head coach. He made an immediate impact in improving the play of the team’s defense after being elevated from an assistant coach for Lloyd Pierce. In the ten games under McMillan’s command, the Hawks rank fifth in the NBA in Defensive Rating — a big improvement over their 18th ranking for the season. Over their last five games, Atlanta has held their opponents to 104.6 PPG on 44.4% shooting representing a -6.1 PPG improvement over the 110.7 PPG they are allowing for the season. The Hawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Atlanta has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Golden State made 51.1% of their shots last night — even without Stephen Curry — which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Warriors also allowed the Kings to make 59.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. Golden State has played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing without rest. The Warriors have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Golden State remains without Curry who is out with a bruised tailbone. The Warriors are making only 44.6% of their shots in their last five games with the last three without Curry. They are scoring 108.8 PPG during that span which is -3.9 PPG below their season average. Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Title as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a home dog.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors were without Draymond Green and Eric Paschall last night with both out feeling ill after getting their COVID shot. They are questionable for tonight. The Hawks traded Rajon Rondo for Lou Williams yesterday but the high-scoring guard is not likely to be ready to play for his new team tonight. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and the Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Golden State. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-23-21 |
76ers v. Warriors UNDER 217 |
Top |
108-98 |
Win
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100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
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At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (555) and the Golden State Warriors (556). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (30-13) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine games after their 101-100 victory at New York as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Golden State (22-21) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in a 111-103 loss at Memphis as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Expect a lower-scoring game between teams who are both dealing with missing key players. The 76ers are without both Joel Embiid and Seth Curry tonight as both battle knee injuries. Philly will miss Curry’s outside shooting. And the Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris-led Sixers are playing better on defense with Embiid on the shelf. The 76ers have held their last five opponents to 43.1% shooting and just 101.8 PPG which is 7.9 PPG below what they are allowing for the season. Philadelphia has played four of their last five games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival. The Sixers have also played four straight games Under the Total on the road as a favorite. Golden State was without Steph Curry on Saturday as he deals with a tailbone injury. The Warriors made only 34.4% of their shots against the Grizzlies without Curry. Curry is out again tonight — so Golden State lacks a reliable scorer. As it is, the Warriors have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Golden State should have fresh legs for their defensive efforts tonight — they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. And while the Warriors have attempted at least 90 shots in three straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after taking at least 90 shots in two straight games. Head coach Steve Kerr does get some reinforcements back with Kevon Looney, James Wiseman, and Eric Paschall back from quarantine. Kerr needs the bigs — and this should help their interior defense while freeing up Draymond Green to defend either Harris or Simmons. Golden State may play at a slower pace tonight since they do not have to resort to up-tempo small-ball with all their bigs on the shelf. The Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference teams — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (555) and the Golden State Warriors (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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