02-28-22 |
Raptors -3.5 v. Nets |
|
133-97 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (553) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (554). THE SITUATION: Toronto (32-27) has lost two straight and four of their last five games after a 127-100 loss at Atlanta as a 5-point underdog on Saturday. Brooklyn (32-29) ended their two-straight losing streak with their 126-123 victory as a 9.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS MINUS THE POINTS: Toronto played one of their worst games of the season against the Hawks. They only made 40.0% of their shots which was the second-lowest field goal percentage in their last 15 games. The Raptors allowed Atlanta to make 57.8% field goal percentage which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last Toronto has also bounced back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 20 or more points. And in their last 11 games after a point spread loss, the Raptors have covered the point spread in 9 of these contests. Toronto has not been competitive in their last two games as they began the weekend with a 125-93 loss in Charlotte. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after losing two straight games by 15 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when favored in all situations. Toronto will be undermanned tonight with O.G. Anunoby out with a finger injury and Fred VanVleet questionable with a knee injury — but they still have Pascal Siakam and Gary Trent, Jr. to lead the team for head coach Nick Nurse. They face a seriously depleted Nets team that will be without the injured Kevin Durant and Joe Harris along with Kyrie Irving ineligible to play in New York for another few days due to the vaccination requirements and Ben Simmons still not ready to take the court. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread 8 straight games at home after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread win. Back at home in the Barclays Center, the Nets are just 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games as an underdog. Brooklyn has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Nets rank just 21st in the NBA this month by scoring 108.7 points per 100 possessions — and they have been even worse on defense by ranking second-to-last in the league by allowing 118 points per 100 possession this month.
FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and Toronto has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games against winning teams. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Toronto Raptors (553) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-22 |
College of Charleston +5.5 v. Hofstra |
Top |
84-89 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the College of Charleston Cougars (863) plus the points versus the Hofstra Pride (864). THE SITUATION: Charleston (16-13) had their two-game winning streak snapped with an 80-79 loss at Drexel as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Hofstra (20-10) has won seven of their last eight games with their 83-67 victory against William & Mary as an 18-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: Charleston should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games after a loss. And while this is the Cougars’ fourth straight game on the road, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games after playing at least two straight games on the road. Head coach Pat Kelsey’s team plays at the second-highest pace in the nation. They also rank 12th in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots — and offensive rebounding travels. Charleston is scoring 80.2 Points-Per-Game in their last five games on 48.7% shooting. They have a 7-7 record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. Charleston has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last games against teams with a winning record. Hofstra has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after a straight-up win at home against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Pride have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing with one day of rest. Hofstra has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They are now 11-2 at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games at home. Furthermore, the Pride have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games when the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored in all situations.
FINAL TAKE: The College of Charleston will be looking to avenge a 76-73 loss at Hofstra as a 2-point underdog on January 27th. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when motivated with revenge. 25* CBB Underdog of the Month with the College of Charleston Cougars (863) plus the points versus the Hofstra Pride (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-22 |
Mavs +4.5 v. Warriors |
Top |
107-101 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (543) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (544). THE SITUATION: Dallas (35-25) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 114-109 loss at Utah as a 6-point underdog on Friday. Golden State (43-17) ended their two-game losing streak with a 132-95 win at Portland as a 10-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: The silver lining from Dallas’ loss on Friday was the play of their recent acquisitions in the Kristaps Porzingis trade. Spencer Dinwiddie scored 20 points on 8 of 12 shooting and Davis Bertrans nailed five of his eight shots from behind the arc for 17 points. These two players give head coach Jason Kidd the potential for a much-needed scoring punch off the bench to help out Luka Doncic. Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The Mavericks have been very reliable road warriors against good teams with Doncic — they are 45-20-1 ATS in their last 66 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Golden State made 51.1% of their shots on Thursday which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last seven games. They also held the Trail Blazers to just a 39.7% field goal percentage which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 12 games. The Warriors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They are also 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a double-digit win. Golden State is undermanned tonight with Klay Thompson out with an illness and Andre Iguodala out with a sore back. They remain without Draymond Green who is recovering from a calf injury. The Warriors’ elite defense drop to 11th in the league since the Green injury. And while the Mavericks rank a surprising fifth in the NBA in Defensive Rating this season under Kidd, Golden State’s offense ranks just 22nd in the league when facing a top-ten defense. The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas will be motivated to avenge an embarrassing 130-92 loss to the Warriors on January 25th. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 opportunities at same-season revenge. Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 meetings with the Warriors — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Golden State. 25* NBA Sunday ESPN Game of the Month with the Dallas Mavericks (543) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-22 |
Louisville v. Wake Forest -8.5 |
Top |
77-99 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (750) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (749). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (21-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 80-69 upset loss at Clemson as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday. Louisville (12-15) has lost eight of their last nine games after their 70-63 loss at North Carolina as a 9.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS MINUS THE POINTS: Wake Forest allowed the Tigers to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games and the third-highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Demon Deacons only made 41.0% of their shots as well which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 16 games. Wake Forest should play better tonight — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Demon Deacons rank second in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are second in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.0%. They return home where they have a 14-2 record with a +15.0 net point differential. Wake Forest holds their guests to just a 38.6% field goal percentage which is resulting in 67.2 Points-Per-Game. The Demon Deacons are nailing 49.0% of their shots on their home court which is generating 82.2 PPG. Wake Forest is usually a very good shooting team — they rank 16th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.5% fueled by a 57.9% shooting clip inside the arc, ranking fourth-best in the country. The Cardinals are vulnerable with their interior defense as they rank ninth in the ACC by allowing their opponents to make 51.6% of their 2-pointers. Louisville ranks 12th in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Wake Forest can get into trouble against teams that force turnovers — the Deacons rank second-to-last in the ACC with a 19.9% turnover rate. But the Cardinals also rank second-to-last in the conference by forcing turnovers in only 14.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 140s. The Demon Deacons have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Louisville continues their lost season that saw the parting of ways with head coach Chris Mack midseason. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. And while the Cardinals have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. They stay on the road where they are just 4-8 this season. They are making only 40.3% of their shots away from home which is resulting in just 64.6 PPG. Louisville is just eleventh in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They only make 32.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 12th in the conference — and their 67.1% free throw rate that is last in the ACC will not help them cover the point spread. The Cardinals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog. They are also just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s, Louisville has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest will be looking to avenge a 73-69 loss to the Cardinals on December 29th. The Demon Deacons have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 opportunities for revenge against their opponent. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (750) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (749). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-22 |
Binghamton +8 v. New Hampshire |
Top |
62-66 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Binghamton Bearcats (1001) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (1002). THE SITUATION: Binghamton (11-14) has lost four of their last five games after a 66-49 loss to Vermont as a 15-point underdog on Wednesday. New Hampshire (13-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 83-55 win against the New Jersey Institute of Technology as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Binghamton only made 30.5% of their shots against the Catamounts on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting effort of the season. They should play better this afternoon as they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. Binghamton has also covered the point spread in 8 straight-road games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread loss. Their solid play on the defensive end of the court should keep them competitive in this game. The Bearcats are third in the America East Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to just a 32.9% shooting clip from behind the arc which is best in the conference — and they also lead the America East with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.2%. They go back on the road where they are 6-6 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games. Additionally, Binghamton has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. New Hampshire made 55.6% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the best shooting effort of the season — so I do expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win against a conference opponent. New Hampshire has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. The Bearcats can struggle on defense as they rank only eighth in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are 9-3 at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: New Hampshire won the first meeting between these two teams on February 12th by a 69-60 score in a pick ‘em match-up — but the Bearcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 opportunities this season to avenge a loss at home. 25* CBB America East Underdog of the Year with the Binghamton Bearcats (1001) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (1002). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-22 |
Texas-Arlington v. South Alabama -7.5 |
Top |
52-62 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (892) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (891). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (18-10) has lost two games in a row after their 55-52 upset loss to Texas State as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday. UT-Arlington (11-16) has lost two in a row and five of their last seven after their 59-53 loss at Troy as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: South Alabama has only scored 103 points in their last two games — but they should find the form that has tagged ranked second in the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and tops in the conference with a 51.9% effective field goal percentage against the Mavericks. UT-Arlington ranks 11th in the Sun Belt Conference in opponent’s effective field goal percentage — and they rank 227th in that metric when playing away from home with opponent’s posting an effective field goal percentage of 52.3%. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight games. But they have also covered the point spread in 9 straight games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last contest. South Alabama has played their last two games Under the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing at least two straight Unders. They stay at home where they are 8-3 this season with a +18.9 net points differential. The Jaguars hold their guests to just 57.9 Points-Per-Game. They rank 32nd on their home court with an effective field goal percentage of 56.0% while ranking in the top-74 in the nation in both 3-point shooting and shooting inside the arc. South Alabama has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored. The Jaguars have also covered the pint spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. South Alabama ranks second in the Sun Belt with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.5% — this is a balanced team on both ends of the court. UT-Arlington held the Trojans to host 36.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 14 games. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. UT-Arlington has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. The Mavericks have played their last two games Under the Total by only allowing 58 and 59 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after playing two straight Unders and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They stay on the road where they are just 3-12 this season with a -8.6 net point differential. They only make 40.1% of their shots on the road which results in only 63.5 PPG. UT-Arlington struggles with shooting the basketball — they rank 321st in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: South Alabama will be looking to avenge an 89-87 upset loss to the Mavericks on December 30th as a 2.5-point favorite. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 75 points. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the South Alabama Jaguars (892) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (891). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-22 |
Louisiana-Monroe +3.5 v. Georgia Southern |
|
75-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UL-Monroe Warhawks (869) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (870). THE SITUATION: UL-Monroe (13-16) has lost four games in a row after their 82-70 loss at Georgia State as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday. Georgia Southern (11-15) has lost six games in a row with their 82-69 loss to Louisiana-Lafayette as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: UL-Monroe allowed the Panthers to make 47.0% of their shots which was the highest opponent's field goal percentage in their last four games. The Warhawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up loss. UL-Monroe has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after losing two in a row to Sun Belt rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 63 road games after losing at least two in a row to conference opponents. The Warhawks stay on the road where they are 6-9 this season — and they are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games as an underdog — and they are 4-1-1 ATS In their last 6 games as an underdog overall. Georgia Southern made 44.8% of their shots against the Ragin’ Cajuns in what was the best shooting effort in their last six games. But the Eagles are still only making 38.8% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in only 60.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank 12th in the Sun Belt in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Georgia Southern also turns the ball over in 22.0% of their possessions, ranking 341st in the nation — so they can’t afford to shoot so poorly if they are not even getting to a shot before coughing the ball up. UL-Monroe forces turnovers in 19.5% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 116th in the nation. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss to a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row. And in their last 7 games when playing with only one day of rest, they have failed to cover the point spread 6 times. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored. And in their last 5 games against losing teams, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread all 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: UL-Monroe will be motivated to avenge a 50-45 upset loss at home to Georgia Southern where they were a 1-point home favorite. The Warhawks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite to their opponent. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the UL-Monroe Warhawks (869) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (870). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-22 |
Eastern Washington +6.5 v. Northern Colorado |
|
85-76 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Eastern Washington Eagles (791) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (792). THE SITUATION: Eastern Washington (14-13) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in an 83-80 upset loss at Idaho as a 4.5-point favorite. Northern Colorado (16-12) has won six of their last seven contests with their 77-70 win against Idaho State as a 14-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Washington played their worst defensive game in their last nine contests by allowing the Vandals to make 54.4% of their shots. But the Eagles are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a point spread setback. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a narrow loss by three points or less. Eastern Washington has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games after winning two of their last three games. They are hitting 48.5% of their shots in their last five games. They stay on the road where they are 7-10 this season — but they are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games on the road. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Eastern Washington has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting up to six points. Northern Colorado’s victory against Idaho State finished above the 144 point total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing an Over in their last game. The Bears have scored 83 and 77 points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 75 points in each of their last two games. They are 8-3 at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games when favored. And in their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road, Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Eastern Washington will be motivated to avenge an 87-83 loss at home to Northern Colorado as a 2-point home underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 20* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Eastern Washington Eagles (791) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (792). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-22 |
North Carolina-Asheville +6 v. Gardner-Webb |
Top |
59-60 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306143) plus the points versus the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306144). THE SITUATION: UNC-Asheville (15-12) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in an 84-79 loss to Winthrop as a 2-point underdog. Gardner-Webb (15-11) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-68 victory at Presbyterian as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: UNC-Asheville allowed Winthrop to nail 50.9% of their shots over the weekend in what was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. Winthrop made 12 of their 30 shots (40%) from behind the arc which was a surprise when considering that the Bulldogs rank sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 28.5% clip from 3-point range this season. UNC-Asheville is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a point spread loss. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. And while this is just their second game since Thursday of last week, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing their second game in seven days. On the positive side, UNC-Asheville made at least 50% of their shots for their third straight game with their 53.2% clip against the Eagles over the weekend. In their last five games, the Bulldogs are making 48.3% of their shots which has bumped up their scoring average +5.3 Points-Per-Game to a 79.8 PPG mark over that span. This team also ranks 32nd in the nation in getting to the free-throw line where they then make 73.9% of their freebies, ranking in the top-100 in the nation. The Runnin’ Bulldogs rank 278th in the nation in putting opponents on the free-throw line. UNC-Asheville goes on the road where they are 7-6 this season. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. They are also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Gardner-Webb has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning at least three of their last four games. The Runnin’ Bulldogs are no slouches defending the 3-point shot either — they rank seventh in the nation in opponent’s field goal percentage behind the arc. UNC-Asheville is vulnerable to teams who crash the glass — but Gardner Webb ranks only seventh in the conference in offensive rebounding when playing at home. The Runnin’ Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. Gardner Webb has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: UNC-Asheville will be motivated to avenge a 61-55 upset loss at home to the Runnin’ Bulldogs as a 1.5-point favorite on January 27th. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* CBB Big South Game of the Month with the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306143) plus the points versus the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-22 |
San Diego State +2.5 v. Boise State |
Top |
57-58 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (645) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (646). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (17-6) won their fifth straight game with a 61-44 victory at Fresno State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Boise State (21-6) has won four of their last five games with their 68-57 win against Utah State as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: After a narrow one-point loss at Colorado State, San Diego State has gotten on a roll by winning their last four games by double-digits. A discovered scoring touch has triggered the upsurge in play for head coach Brian Dutcher’s team. They are shooting 49.0% from the field in their last five games. They had shot 62.5% and 51.7% from the field in their previous two games before posting a 47.9% field goal percentage in their win against the Bulldogs. The Aztecs should continue their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win on the road against a Mountain West Conference rival. San Diego State leads the Mountain West in offensive rebounding rate — and they are very tough to beat if they are hitting their shots. This Aztecs team boasts the top-ranked defensive in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the nation — and this defense travels. San Diego State holds their home hosts to just a 39.7% field goal percentage which translates into only 60.7 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 40 road games with the Total set in the 120s. San Diego State has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boise State played their best defensive game in their last eight contests by holding the Aggies to just 43.4% shooting on Saturday. But the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning two games in a row after conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning four of their last five contests. Boise State’s defense has taken a step back as of late — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.0% of their shots. This is concerning because this Broncos team cannot shoot. Boise State ranks 349th in the country by making only 64.5% of their free throws — a troubling characteristic for a team expected to be in a close game. And they only make 32.4% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on their home court, ranking 246th in the nation. One of the power rankings systems I use lists the Broncos as the 28th best team in the nation — but those analytics drop them to 60th in the country when exclusively evaluating teams playing on their home court. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games. The Broncos lack depth with head coach Leon Rice relying mostly on seven players — but that seventh player, Name Smith, is questionable tonight with an undisclosed injury.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams met on January 22nd with Boise State winning by a 42-37 score as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Aztecs were rusty coming off a two-week hiatus due to COVID outbreaks — and they only shot 28.1% from the field while missing 15 of their 19 shots from behind the arc. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Tuesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the San Diego State Aztecs (645) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-21-22 |
Maryland-Eastern Shore +6 v. North Carolina Central |
Top |
79-66 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks (306109) plus the points versus the North Carolina-Central Eagles (306110). THE SITUATION: Maryland-Eastern Shore (8-13) has lost three games in a row after their 70-63 loss at South Carolina State as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. North Carolina-Central (15-11) has won four games in a row with their 84-79 win against Delaware State as a 12-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Maryland-Eastern Shore only made 37.6% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Hawks should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. And while they have lost four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing four or five of their last six contests. After being one of ten Division I programs that did not play a single game last season because of the COVID pandemic, many college basketball prognosticators projected Maryland-Eastern Shore to be the worst team in the country this season. Not so — this group beat Fordham in double-overtime earlier this season. They lost by just nine points at Connecticut. Granted, this is a team that is still just 3-7 in conference play — but head coach Jason Crafton has done a fine job with his squad. And his team does some things that make them intriguing road warriors. For starters, they are one of the best teams in the nation in forcing turnovers. The Hawks rank 15th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.3% of their opponent’s possessions. In Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference play, they lead the league by forcing turnovers in 26.3% of their opponents' possessions. The Eagles are very vulnerable in this department — they rank 238th in the nation by turning the ball over in 23.8% of their opponent’s possessions. In conference play, North Carolina-Central turns the ball over 24.3% of the time. This defensive pressure helps Maryland-Eastern Shore boast the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in conference play using one of the analytics formulas I track — and they are second in the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road using those metrics. The Hawks also do a couple of things that make them dangerous. They are third in the conference by rebounding 31.7% of their missed shots when playing on the road. They also nail 36% of their 3-point shots on the road in conference play. Maryland-Eastern Shore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road. And while this is their second game since last Monday, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when playing second games in seven days. Furthermore, Maryland-Eastern Shore is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. North Carolina-Central has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Eagles are considered one of the favorites to win the MEAC despite COVID limiting them to just 13 practices all season last year. The Eagles are not a great defensive team by conference standards. They rank seventh in the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that ranking remains seventh of the eight teams in the conference in that m metric when playing at home. North Carolina-Central has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: North Carolina-Central won the first meeting between these two teams by a 75-63 score as a 3-point favorite on the road. The Eagles made 11 of their 25 shots (44%) from behind the arc which is a number they are not likely to replicate since they rank 276th in the nation by making only 31.6% of their 3-point shots. Tellingly, North Carolina-Central committed 18 turnovers in that game while turning the ball over in 27.3% of their possessions against the Hawks’ pressure. Maryland-Eastern Shore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks (306109) plus the points versus the North Carolina-Central Eagles (306110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-22 |
Mississippi State v. Missouri +4.5 |
|
58-56 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (860) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (859). THE SITUATION: Missouri (10-16) has lost three of their last four games after a 68-49 loss at Mississippi State as a 10.5-point underdog on Friday. Mississippi State (15-11) snapped a four-game losing streak with the win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Missouri only made 31.4% of their shots on Friday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 games. The Tigers have not scored more than 57 points in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight games. Missouri has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a double-digit loss on the road. Missouri has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. They return home where they are 7-6 — but they did upset Alabama. They hold their guests to just 41.1% shooting. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Missouri has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games as an underdog getting up to six points. Mississippi State played their best defensive game in their last 24 contests by holding the Tigers to just 31.4% shooting. But the Bulldogs are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread loss. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering the point spread in at least two games in a row. This rematch is on the road where they are 0-7 in true road games this season while ranking 306th in the nation in effective field goal percentage with a 45.1% mark. Mississippi State makes only 25.4% of their 3-pointers when playing in a hostile environment, ranking 335th in the nation. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri missed 14 of their 17 shots from behind the arc on Friday — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to make at least 20% of their shots from 3-point range in their last contest. 10* CBB Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Missouri Tigers (860) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (859). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-22 |
East Carolina v. UCF -9 |
Top |
66-69 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (832) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (831). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (15-9) looks to rebound from a 70-52 loss at Houston on Thursday as a 13.5-point underdog. East Carolina (13-12) has won two of their last three games with their 65-57 victory at South Florida as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Central Florida could not get anything going on the offensive end of the court against the Cougars. Their 28.3% field goal percentage in that game was the lowest of the season. Johnny Dawkins’ team should shoot much better this afternoon. Central Florida has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not making at least 33% of their shots in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring at least 55 points in their last game. Additionally, the Knights have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a double-digit loss. Central Florida has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. And while this is the Knights’ third game since Monday this week, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing their third game in seven days. They return home where they are 11-3 this season. Dawkins’ team thrives on the defensive end of the court where they hold their guests to just a 40.9% field goal percentage which results in only 61.9 Points-Per-Game. UCF makes a modest 45.2% of their shots at home — so they should make more baskets than they did against the Cougars. But what makes this Knights’ team so dangerous is that they do a good job in generating additional scoring opportunities. Central Florida pulls down 31.6% of their missed shots, ranking 68th in the nation. The Knights also lead the American Athletic Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions — and that turnover rate improves to a 22.7% clip when playing at home. The Pirates are loose with the basketball — they rank seventh in the conference by turning the ball over in 19.9% of their possessions. Central Florida has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. East Carolina held South Florida to just 34.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 23 games. The Pirates had lost six in a row before winning two of their last three — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while East Carolina has not scored more than 30 points in the first half in eight straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after not scoring more than 30 points in the first half in at least two straight games. They stay on the road where they are just 3-8 this season. The Pirates struggle to score -- and it starts with their shooting inside the arc where they rank 322nd in the nation by making only 45.7% of their 2-pointers. On the road, East Carolina has a 40.4% field goal percentage — and they rank 341st in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 43.7% on the road. The Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 130s. East Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates will be motivated to avenge a 92-85 loss in overtime at home to the Knights on January 18th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 85 points. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Central Florida Knights (832) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (831). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-22 |
Northern Colorado +6 v. Weber State |
|
83-79 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northern Colorado Bears (775) plus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (776). THE SITUATION: Northern Colorado (14-12) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in a 61-58 upset loss at Idaho as a 7-point favorite. Weber State (19-8) ended their three-game losing streak with a 65-50 win against Sacramento State as a 15.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Colorado only made 38.5% of their shots on Thursday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Bears have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to a Big Sky rival by six points or less. They are also 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games after a point spread loss. Northern Colorado should shoot better tonight — they rank seventh in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.7%. Even after Thursday’s subpar effort, they are still making 50.8% of their shots in their last five games. The Buffaloes are making 50.1% of their shots in conference play which is generating 81.1 Points-Per-Game. They lead the Big Sky with a 39.1% shooting mark from behind the arc — and they now face a Wildcats team that ranks just seventh in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 36.1% of their 3-pointers. Northern Colorado is 32-15-1 ATS in their last 48 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting no more than six points. Weber State made 56.8% of their shots against Sacramento State in what was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They held the Hornets to just 34.0% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 17 games. But Weber State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Wildcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Weber State has not covered the point spread in six straight games. Not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in at least three straight games. The Wildcats host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Weber State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Weber State won the first meeting between these two teams by an 85-76 score on January 27th. The Bears have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Saturday Night Special Feature with the Northern Colorado Bears (775) plus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (776). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-22 |
Utah v. California +2.5 |
|
60-58 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (740) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (739). THE SITUATION: California (11-16) had their two-game winning streak end on Thursday with their 70-62 loss at home to Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog. Utah (10-16) comes off a 60-56 upset win at Stanford as a 4-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: California should play better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. California got out-worked on the boards by a 43-28 margin to the Buffaloes in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after getting out-rebounds by at least 15 boards in their last game. Cal has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing their second game in three days. They stay at home where they have won nine of their eleven games this season — and they are holding their opponents to just 41.8% shooting from the field. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road. California has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. Utah held the Cardinal to just 36.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 14 games. But the Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. Utah stays on the road where they are just 3-10 this season with a -6.7 net point differential. They only make 40.5% of their shots on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games on the road. The Utes have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Utah won the first meeting between these two teams by a 66-58 score in Salt Lake City on December 5th. California has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 30 opportunities for revenge from a loss on the road. The Golden Bears have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 20* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the California Golden Bears (740) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (739). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-22 |
Long Island v. Mt. St. Mary's +2 |
Top |
66-61 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306034) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Long Island Sharks (306033). THE SITUATION: Mount St. Mary’s (12-13) has lost three of their last four games after their 64-55 upset loss to St. Francis-NY as a 5-point favorite on Thursday. Long Island (12-13) has won three games in a row with their 81-63 win at St. Francis-PA as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Mount St. Mary’s allowed St. Francis-NY to make 47.4% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 15 games. The Mountaineers have the top defense in the Northeast Conference in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. They have held their last two opponents to 29 and 27 points in the first half in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half of their last two games. They stay at home where they have a +10.4 net point differential while holding their guests to just a 41.5% shooting percentage and 61.2 Points-Per-Game. Mount St. Mary’s have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. On their home court, the Mountaineers pull down 37.6% of their missed shots, the 13th highest mark in the nation. Mount St. Mary’s also leads the Northeast Conference by making 35.6% of their shots — and they face a Sharks team that allows their home hosts to mane 36.7% of their shots in conference play. Long Island held St. Francis-PA to just a 32.9% shooting percentage which was the second-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season and the lowest mark in 16 games. The Sharks also made 47.1% of their shots which was the best mark in their last 13 games. But Long Island has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a double-digit win on the road. The Sharks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Long Island won their previous game by a 99-88 score against Bryant but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. The Sharks stay on the road where they are just 3-12 this season with a -9.5 net point differential. They only make 40.4% of their shots away from home. Long Island has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Mount St. Mary’s will be looking to avenge a 74-57 loss at Long Island on January 6th as a 5-point underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road where they did not score at least 60 points. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Game of the Year with the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306034) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Long Island Sharks (306033). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-18-22 |
St. Peter's +1.5 v. Fairfield |
Top |
70-59 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (877) plus the point(s) versus the Fairfield Stags (878). THE SITUATION: Saint Peter’s (11-10) has lost two straight games after their 70-61 loss to Iona as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Fairfield (12-14) has lost four of their last six games after their 74-67 upset loss to Manhattan as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PEACOCKS PLUS THE POINT(S): The Stags could not take care of business against an undermanned Jaspers squad earlier this week — and now they continue their jam-packed schedule this week by playing for the fourth time since Saturday. As it is, Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread 4 of their last 6 games when playing for the second time in three days. The Stags have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss to a conference rival. They do stay at home tonight — but they are just 5-8 on their home court. And while a power ratings analytics model I use ranks them 208th in the nation, that system drops them to 269th in the country when measuring home court performance. Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 120s. Playing every other day for the fourth time tonight is challenging on the shooting legs — and this Stags’ team is very dependent on making baskets since they do not do much to create more scoring chances. Fairfield ranks ninth in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference by rebounding only 25.3% of their missed shots — and they only force turnovers in 16.7% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking ninth in the conference. Furthermore, Fairfield’s defense is middling — they rank only seventh in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Saint Peter’s comes in rested with this being just their second game since last Friday — and this is their first game on the road since January 30th. Led by KC Ndefo, the two-time Defensive Player of the Year in the conference, the Peacocks have the best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the MAAC. Saint Peter’s usually has a strong defense under head coach Shaheen Holloway — and this season is no exception. The Peacocks lead the conference by forcing turnovers in 21.5% of their opponent’s possessions. They also lead the conference in opponent’s effective field goal percentage with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45.1% inside the arc and 29.0% from 3-point land, both the best marks in the MAAC. Saint Peter’s also ranks second in the conference by pulling down 31.4% of their missed shots — and they lead the MAAC by nailing 38.3% of their 3-pointers. And this team is 26th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line — and the Stags are 230th in opponent’s free throw rate. There is a lot to like about this Peacocks team moving forward. They have held their last two opponents to 30 and 26 first-half points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games when an underdog getting up to six points. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after playing at least three straight games at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Peacocks under Holloway are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog — and the Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (877) plus the point(s) versus the Fairfield Stags (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-17-22 |
Creighton v. DePaul -1.5 |
Top |
71-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the DePaul Blue Demons (850) minus the point(s) versus the Creighton Bluejays (849). THE SITUATION: DePaul (12-10) has lost two games in a row after their 73-71 upset loss to Butler as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday. Creighton (16-8) won their third straight game with their 86-77 victory against Georgetown as an 11-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLEU DEMONS MINUS THE POINT(S): DePaul may have lost six of their last eight games but they are still playing pretty good basketball this month. They lost to Providence in overtime over the weekend before losing by one possession to the Bulldogs. They upset Xavier on the road last week. They only made 41.3% of their shots against Butler which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. This DePaul team is better than their record — they played seven games without their leading scorer Javon Freeman-Liberty who was out with an injury. He is scoring 20.6 Points-Per-Game after his 20-point effort on Tuesday. The Blue Demons are 9-6 on their home court this season with impressive wins against Seton Hall and the upset machine that is Rutgers. They hold their guests to just 41.7% shooting from the field when playing at home. DePaul has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 140s. The Blue Demons have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Creighton made 53.8% of their shots in their victory against the Hoyas — but that was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. The Bluejays have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three of their last four games. This is not a good shooting team this season — they only make 31.4% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 290th in the nation. They are also too loose with the basketball as they are turning the ball over in 21.3% of their possessions, ranking 324th in the nation, and it is has been worse in conference play as they are last in the Big East by turning the ball over in 22.0% of their possessions. Creighton is 7-5 on the road but they are getting outscored by -2.0 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: DePaul will be motivated to avenge a 60-47 loss at Creighton where they blew a double-digit lead in the second half by scoring only two points over a 12-minute span. But the Blue Demons played that game without Freeman-Liberty who is now back with the team — and they missed 14 of their 17 shots from 3-point land. Back at home, DePaul makes a solid 34.1% of their shots from distance. They get to play the role of spoiler tonight against a Creighton team firmly on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Thursday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the DePaul Blue Demons (850) minus the point(s) versus the Creighton Bluejays (849). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-17-22 |
76ers +7 v. Bucks |
|
123-120 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (565) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (566). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (34-23) looks to rebound from an embarrassing 135-87 loss to Boston as a 2-point underdog on Tuesday. Milwaukee (31-23) has won five of their last seven games with their 128-119 win against Indiana as a 14-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia may have played their worst game of the season on Tuesday. Their 28.7% field goal percentage was their lowest of the year. And the 56.1% shooting percentage they allowed the Celtics to enjoy was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 43 games. Depth is an issue for this team right now after trading away Seth Curry and Andre Drummond but still await James Harden’s debut with the team as he nurses his hamstring injury. But the Sixers still have Joel Embiid along with Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey who can keep them competitive in this game. And if there is one silver lining from a 48-point loss, it is that their star players did not log in heavy minutes. Head coach Doc Rivers played Embiid for less than 27 minutes and Harris less than 28 minutes against the Celtics. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. The 76ers are also 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a double-digit loss — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. They go back on the road where they have cord the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog. Milwaukee nailed 55.8% of their shots against the Pacers on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 39 contests. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Milwaukee has its own depth issues right now with many of their rotational players injured right now including Wesley Matthews, Brook Lopez, and George Hill. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and the 76ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or greater. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia 76ers (565) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-22 |
Kentucky v. Tennessee -1.5 |
|
63-76 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (660) minus the point(s) versus the Kentucky Wildcats (659). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (18-6) has won four straight games and seven of their last eight after a 73-64 victory against Vanderbilt as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Kentucky (21-4) has won six games in a row with their 78-57 win against Florida as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Tennessee is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a point spread loss. They have also held their last three opponents to no more than 64 points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 65 points in their last three games. The Volunteers have the sixth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the nation. They stay at home where they are 13-0 this season with a +20.5 net point differential. They nail 38.1% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to six points. They have also covered the point spread in five of their last seven games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. During their six-game winning streak, they have won their last three games by double-digits — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning at least three games in a row and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning three in a row by 10 or more points. They are making 49.1% of their shots this season but that mark drops to a 46.6% clip when playing on the road which contributes to them scoring -7.7 Points-Per-Game in those road games versus their season average — and they allow their home hosts to score +3.4 PPG above their season average. The Wildcats are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 140-144.5 point range. Kentucky has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. And in their last 11 games as an underdog, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Kentucky won the first meeting between these two teams on January 15th by a 107-79 score in a game where they made 11 of their 18 (61.1%) of their 3-pointers. The Wildcats only make 31.8% of their 3-pointers on the road, ranking 223rd in the nation — and the Volunteers hold their opponents to just 32.8% shooting on their home court. 10* CBB Kentucky-Tennessee ESPN Special with the Tennessee Volunteers (660) minus the point(s) versus the Kentucky Wildcats (659). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-22 |
Northern Iowa v. Illinois State +4.5 |
|
72-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Illinois State Redbirds (644) plus the points versus the Northern Iowa Panthers (643). THE SITUATION: Illinois (11-15) has lost six of their last seven games after a 60-57 loss at Indiana State as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Northern Iowa (14-10) had their five-game winning streak snapped in an 85-58 loss at Loyola-Chicago as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDBIRDS PLUS THE POINTS: Illinois State made only 33.3% of their shots on Sunday in their worst shooting effort of the season. The Redbirds have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road to a Missouri Valley Conference opponent. They return home where they are 10-4 this season with a +7.6 net point differential. Illinois State makes 46.5% of their shots on their home court which is generating 78.8 Points-Per-Game. Even better, the Redbirds shoot 37.8% from behind the arc when on their home court, ranking 54th best in the nation. They also lead the conference with a 42.7% shooting clip from downtown in their conference home games. The Panthers have struggled in defending the perimeter when playing away from Cedar Falls — they rank 327th in the nation with their opponents nailing 38.4% of their shots in their road games or neutral courts. Illinois State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. A weakness for the Redbirds is their defending their defensive glass — they rank ninth in the conference in defensive rebounding. But this will not likely be an issue when hosting this Panthers team that only rebounds 21.1% of their missed shots, ranking 343rd in the country. Northern Iowa embarrassed themselves on Sunday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a loss by 20 or more points. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss to a conference opponent. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — so resiliency is an issue with this team. This is their third game since last Wednesday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when playing their third game in seven days. They have a 6-6 record on the road — but they only make 44.9% of their shots which makes their offensive rebounding issues a concern. They also allow their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored. Additionally, Northern Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored overall — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Illinois State will be looking to avenge a 79-64 loss at Northern Iowa on January 29th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Underdog of the Month with the Illinois State Redbirds (644) plus the points versus the Northern Iowa Panthers (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-22 |
Virginia v. Virginia Tech -4.5 |
|
53-62 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (880) minus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (879). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (15-10) won their fifth straight game with their 71-59 win against Syracuse as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Virginia (16-9) has won four games in a row with their 63-53 victory as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia Tech beat the Orange despite only making 38.3% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 14 games. The Hokies are still making 52.1% of their shots in their last five games fueled by them begin on-fire from behind the arc. Virginia Tech had made 66 of their last 124 shots (53.2%) from 3-point range in their previous five games before only making 8 of their 27 shots from behind the arc against Syracuse. Virginia Tech has the top-rated offense in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are second in the country in 3-point shooting with a 41.5% shooting percentage which fuels their 56.0 effective field goal percentage for the season, ranking 12th in the nation. They should have success shooting over the Cavaliers’ pack-line defense that ranks 232nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 34.8% of their shots from behind the arc. Virginia Tech has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games after winning at least four games in a row. They stay at home where they are 9-3 with a +15.5 net Points-Per-Game differential. They make 49.4% of their shots at home — and they hold their guests to just 41.2% shooting which is resulting in only 59.6 PPG. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games with the Total set no higher than 129.5. Virginia is just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit victory. The Cavaliers have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last contest. Virginia goes back on the road where they are 6-5 this season despite being outscored. This Cavs team once again struggles to score baskets under head coach Tony Bennett — they rank 7th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while being last in the conference with a 32.0% shooting mark from behind the arc. But the defense is a surprising concern for a Bennett team. Virginia ranks 7th in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech will be looking to avenge a 54-52 loss at Virginia on January 12th. The Hokies made 7 of their 19 (38.6%) of their shots from behind the arc but spotted the Cavaliers 13 more shots from the charity stripe which resulted in eight net points. Virginia may not get as many calls from the refs on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. 10* CBB Virginia-Virginia Tech ESPN Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (880) minus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (879). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-22 |
Colorado State +2 v. Boise State |
|
77-74 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
I have made my calls for my Super Bowl prop bets. I am offering as a free bonus with this CBB play here at Sportscapping. Here is the summary:
Best Bet: Cam Akers Under 82.5 rushing/receiving yards (-120 at DraftKings). I also like Akers under 63.5 rushing yards but prefer this receiving yards included if you can get it. Akers has five catches for 62 yards in three playoff games but that is propped up by one 40-yard gain against the Raiders. Is he 100% with a shoulder injury? Did he come back too soon from his torn Achilles? He is averaging only 2.8 YPC in the postseason and has not topped 55 rushing yards in all three games. And he fumbled twice against Tampa Bay — so it might be Sony Michel who gets the touches if the Rams have the lead in the fourth quarter (Michel had 10 carries versus San Fran). Plus, Darrell Henderson was activated yesterday — and he averaged 4.6 YPC in the regular season. Expect a three-way time-share.
Top Overlay Bet: C.J. Uzomah Under 29.5 receiving yards. While HC Taylor says he is “on track” to play after injuring his knee early against KC, he might not play despite his pronouncements that he is “not missing the biggest game of his life” (he is officially listed as questionable). I mean, why declare him out even if it looks grim (and, to be fair, he did practice on Friday). If he does play, his snaps will likely be limited. The other tight end is Drew Sample who they drafted in the second round a few years ago as a pass catcher from Washington. I would think that Taylor thinks he can get some snaps out of Uzomah, but he will want to use him carefully. Even if Uzomah was 100%, there is still an edge with the Under — while his two full playoff games this year saw more than 29.5 receiving yards, this prop finished Under in 8 of his 15 regular season games when he played the full game.
Long Shot Bet: Tee Higgins to lead all players in receiving yards (+600). Cooper Kupp is the betting favorite, but at underlay value at +120. Ja’Marr Chase is at +400 — but he will probably be covered by Jalen Ramsey. A game script where Joe Burrow throws for a lot of yards with Higgins getting the majority of that production against the Rams’ quarters zone defense is highly plausible scenario.
Thanks, Frank At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (857) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (858). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (19-3) has won three in a row and eight of their last ten after their 65-50 win against Fresno State as a 6-point favorite on Friday. Boise State (19-5) has won two in a row and 16 of their last 17 with their 69-63 win against UNLV as an 8.5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a good matchup for Colorado State in the first meeting between these Mountain West Conference powers. Boise State can’t shoot a lick — more on that below, but they play great defense and are tough to score on. The Broncos own their defensive glass — they rank third in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound just 21.0% of their missed shots. But this will not be a problem for Niko Medved’s Colorado State team who sacrifice crashing the glass to get back on defense. The Rams only rebound 21.4% of their missed — ranking 342nd in the nation. They only two offensive rebounds in their 15-point win against the Bulldogs on Friday — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not rebounding more than five offensive boards in their last game. Colorado State has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. What the Rams do well is execute on offense without relying on second chances. They rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are 13th in the country with their shooting inside the arc and at the free-throw line respectively — and their 37.6% shooting clip from behind the arc is the 23rd best mark in the nation. Colorado State also takes advantage of their scoring opportunities since they rank 12th in the nation with a low turnover rate of just 14.9% — and this will frustrate a Broncos team that is fourth in the Mountain West in forcing turnovers. The Rams are second in the conference in that category — they force turnovers in 20.1% of their opponent’s possessions. These characteristics travel — while Colorado State ranks 54th in the nation in one of the computer models I use, that ranking elevates to 26th in the nation when focusing only on how teams perform in true road games. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Boise State completes their three-game homestand this afternoon where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games (they were favored in all four of those games). They have not covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 home games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range including these last seven circumstances. While the Broncos rank 32nd in the nation in the computer model referenced earlier, that ranking drops to 65th in the country when only evaluating home performances. Boise State has not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least two games in a row at home despite not covering the point spread in either game. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning at least four of their last five games. And while this is their second game since last Saturday, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing their second game in the last eight days.
FINAL TAKE: About that Boise State shooting — the Broncos rank 215th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 49.1% dragged down by their 31.9% clip from behind the arc that ranks 261st in the nation (and their 3-point shooting drops to a 30.5% clip when playing at home, ranking 300th in the country). Boise State also makes only 63.9% of their free throws at home, ranking 342nd in the country. No wonder the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a favorite. 10* CBB Colorado State-Boise State FS1-TV Special with the Colorado State Rams (857) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-12-22 |
Cincinnati v. Tulsa +2.5 |
Top |
77-83 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (776) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (775). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (7-15) has lost three in a row after their 73-71 upset loss to East Carolina as a 7-point favorite on Tuesday. Cincinnati (16-7) has won two of their last three contests with their 70-59 win at South Florida as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulsa has lost ten of their last eleven games — but they have been a very tough out on their home court while not getting many breaks in close games. Besides losing to the Pirates by just a basket during this rough stretch, they also lost at home to Houston and Memphis by just two points — and they lost at home to SMU and Temple by just five points apiece. Earlier in the season. Tulsa upset Rhode Island on their home court. The Golden Hurricane allowed East Carolina to nail 50.9% of their shots after not allowing their last three opponents to make more than 41.3% of their shots. Tulsa has been playing better on the defensive end of the court — they held those three previous opponents to just 34.7% shooting. The Golden Hurricane have bounced back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Tulsa has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 home games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Tulsa has covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after losing three games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. The Golden Hurricane are just 6-7 on their home court but they are outscoring their guests by +6.7 Points-Per-Game. Tulsa has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games when an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games as a dog getting up to three points. Cincinnati may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit loss. The Bearcats are also 13-38-3 ATS in their last 54 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a point spread victory. Now they stay on the road where they are only making 38.9% of their shots. Cincinnati can’t shoot the basketball — they rank 266th in the nation in effective field goal percentage with a 47.8% clip while ranking no higher than 255th in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. The Bearcats are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games when favored. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Tulsa will be motivated to avenge a 90-69 loss at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point favorite on January 20th. The Bearcats nailed 16 of their 29 shots from 3-point range in that game — but they are not likely to come close to repeating that 55.2% clip from downtown on the road where they make just 33.3% of their 3-pointers. The Golden Hurricane has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games when avenging a loss. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Month with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (776) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (775). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-22 |
Fresno State +6 v. Colorado State |
|
50-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (893) plus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (894). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (18-7) looks to rebound from a 61-59 upset loss at home to Wyoming as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Colorado State (18-3) has won two in a row after their 82-72 win at Nevada as a 6-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fresno State should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after an upset loss as a home favorite including their last four games after those circumstances. Now they go on the road where they are 7-5 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after a loss at home. Fresno State has been playing outstanding defense — they rank 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and they have held their last five opponents to just 39.1% shooting which is resulting in 57.6 Points-Per-Game. They have not allowed more than 61 points in three straight games and four of their last five games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. Colorado State may be 11-1 on their home court but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. They are making 49.3% of their shots which is generating 77.5 PPG this season — but in their last five games, they are only shooting 46.4% from the field which has resulted in their scoring average dropping by -3.7 PPG. Colorado State is experiencing a decline on defense as well. They allow their opponents to make 42.9% of their shots which results in 67.4 PPG — but in their last five games, they are allowing their opponents to shoot 46.5% from the field which is generating +6.0 more PPG for these opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State ranks fifth in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Fresno State ranks ahead of the Rams in both metrics — they are second in the MWC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and fourth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. 10* CBB Fresno State-Colorado State CBS Sports Network Special with the Fresno State Bulldogs (893) plus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (894). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-22 |
St Bonaventure v. St. Louis -5 |
|
68-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Saint Louis Billikens (890) minus the points versus the St. Bonaventure Bonnies (889). THE SITUATION: Saint Louis (17-6) has won six straight games after their 75-57 victory at LaSalle as a 7.5-point favorite on Tuesday. St. Bonaventure (13-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 76-51 victory against Fordham as a 12.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLIKENS MINUS THE POINTS: Saint Louis should build off their momentum. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They have covered the point spread in their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after covering the point spread in at least two games. They return home where they are 11-3 this season with an average winning margin of +17.5 Points-Per-Game. They are making 47.5% of their shots at home — and they are holding their opponents to just 38.1% shooting which is resulting in just 62.0 PPG. The Billikens have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. Saint Louis ranks third in the Atlantic 10 Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 41.9% is second-best in conference play. The Billikens also rank second in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 13th in the nation by pulling down 35.6% of their missed shots — and they should have success getting second-chance scoring opportunities against this Bonnies team that ranks ninth in the conference by allowing their opponents to pull down 29.3% of their misses. St. Bonaventure held the Rams to just 31.7% shooting on Tuesday which was the best defensive effort in their last 15 games. But the Bonnies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by 10 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they are 5-5 but getting outscored by -4.7 Points-Per-Game. They only make 41.8% of their shots on the road which results in just 63.9 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games with the Total set in the 130s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams this season. St. Bonaventure has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog. Saint Louis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. 10* CBB St. Bonaventure-Saint Louis ESPN2 Special with the Saint Louis Billikens (890) minus the points versus the St. Bonaventure Bonnies (889). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-22 |
Oakland v. Robert Morris +7 |
|
71-68 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Robert Morris Colonials (880) minus the points versus the Oakland Grizzlies (879). THE SITUATION: Robert Morris (6-18) has lost two of their last three games after their 79-62 loss to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog. Oakland (16-8) has lost three in a row after their 78-71 upset loss at Youngstown State as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLONIALS PLUS THE POINTS: Oakland is in a tailspin right now — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Now they complete their disastrous four-game road trip tonight. While they do have a 9-8 record on the road, they have been outscored in those games overall — and they are only making 40.7% of their shots on the road. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored. One of the flaws of this Oakland team is they give up too many offensive rebounds — they rank 337th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 33.2% of their missed shots. Robert Morris is a solid team on the glass — they are rebounding 29.9% of their shots in Horizon League play. The Colonials allows the Titans to make 50.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. Robert Morris has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss to a conference opponent. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 41 games when playing their third game in seven days, the Colonials have covered the point spread in 28 of these contests. Robert Morris is only 4-7 at home — but they are outscoring their guests by +3.5 Points-Per-Game. They make a healthy 47.0% of their shots on their home court — and they hold the visitors to just 41.4% shooting. The Colonials defense should keep them in this game. Robert Morris has held their last five opponents to 40.6% shooting which is resulting in just 64.2 PPG. They are second in the Horizon League in opponent’s field goal percentage inside the arc.
FINAL TAKE: Oakland won the first meeting between these two teams by a 79-61 score as a 12-point favorite playing on their home court. But the Grizzlies have since failed to cover the point spread in their last 5 games when favored. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Robert Morris Colonials (880) minus the points versus the Oakland Grizzlies (879). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-10-22 |
Stanford v. Oregon -8.5 |
Top |
60-68 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (838) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (837). THE SITUATION: Oregon (15-7) has won three straight games and nine of their last ten after their 80-77 win at Utah as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Stanford (14-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 79-70 loss to UCLA as a 7.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: It may have taken some time for this Oregon team to develop some chemistry and establish an identity — but they are starting to roll now. Head coach Dana Altman has assembled a very intriguing roster with four former top-100 recruits at center and four ball-handling two-way guards. Altman can do a lot with this group, and his defenses are at their best when he has rim protectors. And Altman’s teams are always good on offense — this Ducks team leads the Pac-12 with an effective field goal percentage of 53.6% fueled by ranking second in the conference in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. Oregon should continue to feed off its momentum. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win on the road against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win on the road by three points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 6 games after winning at least four or five of their last six games, they have covered the point spread 5 times. They only made 43.9% of their shots against the Utes which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last six games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they are 9-3 this season with a +14.1 net point differential. They make 50.9% of their shots on their home court which is generating 78.9 Points-Per-Game. They also hold their guests to 40.4% shooting — and they have held their last five opponents to just 38.1% shooting. Oregon has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. The Ducks have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Stanford shot 53.7% from the field in their loss to the Bruins which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But now after playing their last four games at home, they go back on the road where they are 4-6 this season with a -7.7 net point differential. The Cardinal only makes 42.5% of their shots on the road which is resulting just 62.7 PPG. Stanford is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Cardinal has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Oregon will be motivated to avenge a 72-69 loss at Stanford in a pick ‘em contest on December 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Oregon Ducks (838) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (837). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-10-22 |
Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina +2 |
|
61-50 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (784) plus the point(s) versus the Georgia State Panthers (783). THE SITUATION: Coastal Carolina (12-10) has lost two straight games after their 69-64 loss at Texas State as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Georgia State (9-10) has won three of their last four games with their 69-62 win against South Alabama as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHANTICLEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Coastal Carolina should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread setback. They return home where they are 9-4 this season with an +16.9 net point differential. They are making 48.6% of their shots on their home court which is generating 79.8 Points-Per-Game. They are also holding their guests to just 36.9% shooting which is resulting in just 62.9 PPG. Coastal Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog including an upset victory against South Carolina — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog in all situations. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against winning teams. The Chanticleers are 30th in the nation by pulling down 34.0% of their missed shots. They also lead the Sun Belt Conference in 3-point shooting and 3-point shooting defense — and they now host a Panthers team that is last in the conference in 3-point shooting and 3-point defense. Georgia State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after a win on their home court. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They go back on the road where they are 4-6 despite making just 39.2% of their shots in these games — and they allow their home hosts to nail 47.5% of their shots. This team can’t shoot the basketball — it is the one area holding them back the most. They rank 340th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.6% — their 42.8% shooting inside the arc, ranking 351st in the country — is holding them back. Georgia State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will want to avenge a 72-68 upset loss at home in overtime as a 5-point favorite against the Chanticleers on January 22nd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. Don’t be surprised if Coastal Carolina pulls the upset again — but take the points for some insurance. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (784) plus the point(s) versus the Georgia State Panthers (783). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-08-22 |
Butler v. Creighton -7 |
|
52-54 |
Loss |
-106 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (658) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (657). THE SITUATION: Creighton (13-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 74-55 loss at Seton Hall as a 5-point underdog on Friday. Butler (13-8) has lost two in a row and six of their last eight games with their 75-72 loss to St. John’s in a pick ‘em contest on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUEJAYS MINUS THE POINTS: Creighton made only 36.2% of their shots against the Pirates on Friday which was the second-lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games. They also allowed Seton Hall to shoot 49.1% from the field in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 16 games. The Bluejays should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Creighton has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss. And in their last 12 games after losing two of their last three games, the Bluejays have covered the point spread in 10 of these contests. Creighton should play better on defense tonight — they rank second in the Big East and 40th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank ninth in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 42.6% shooting percentage inside the arc. They return home where they limit their opponents to just 37.3% shooting which is generating only 60.7 Points-Per-Game. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Butler made 51.8% of their shots on Saturday in their narrow loss to the Red Storm which was the best shooting mark in their last 16 games. This is the Bulldogs’ third game since last Wednesday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing their third game in seven days. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they are just 2-7 this season — and they rank 336th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of just 43.5% when they are playing away from home. Butler has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when an underdog. And in their last 9 games with the Total set in the 120s, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.
FINAL TAKE: Creighton will be looking to avenge a 72-55 loss at Butler on January 26th as a 2.5-point favorite in a game where the Bluejays made only 2 of their 22 shots from behind the arc. Back at home, Creighton is making 36.4% of their 3-pointers in Big East play. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when playing with revenge. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* CBB Butler-Creighton CBS Sports Network Special with the Creighton Bluejays (658) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (657). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-22 |
Bucks v. Clippers +4.5 |
|
137-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (556) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (555). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (27-27) has won four of their last six games after their 111-110 win against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Milwaukee (33-21) has won six of their last eight games after their 137-108 victory at Portland as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Ty Lue is performing one of the best coaching jobs in the NBA this season getting the most of out his roster despite missing Kawhi Leonard all season and Paul George for over half the season. The team improved their roster at least in the short term with their trade with Portland on Sunday. Los Angeles acquired Norman Powell and Robert Covington for Eric Bledsoe, Keon Johnson, and Justice Winslow. Bledsoe has underperformed this season while Johnson and Winslow are benchwarmers — so getting Powell into the mix is an upgrade while Covington is a veteran who might play better in the new environment as a 3-and-D rotational player. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games as a dog getting up to six points. Milwaukee made 53.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last 16 games. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. And in their last 7 games played without rest, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. Milwaukee stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 13 games when favored, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against the Clippers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their last 4 trips to Los Angeles to play the Clippers. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Clippers (556) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (555). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-22 |
Loyola-Chicago -1.5 v. Missouri State |
|
71-62 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (845) minus the point(s) versus the Missouri State Bears (846). THE SITUATION: Loyola-Chicago (17-4) has won three of their last four games after their 78-64 win against Illinois State as a 14.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Missouri State (17-7) has won six of their last seven games with their 69-54 win at Southern Illinois as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMBLERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Loyola-Chicago should build off their momentum this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a double-digit win against a conference opponent. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, the Ramblers have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not covering the spread in their last two games. Loyola-Chicago ranks eighth in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.3% — they rank in the top-22 in the country in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. The Ramblers also sport the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark in the Missouri Valley Conference. They go on the road where they are 7-2 this season. They hold their home hosts to just 40.2% shooting which is resulting in just 60.0 Points-Per-Game. Loyola-Chicago is 9-3-4 ATS in their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games in conference play. The Ramblers are also 8-3-3 ATS in their last 14 road games when favored. Missouri State can live-or-die by their shooting since they rank just 257th in getting to the free-throw line and they only pull down 25.7% of their missed shots, ranking 259th in the nation. The Bears come off when of their better games of the season after making 54.3% of their shots and limiting the Salukis to just 36.2% shooting. Both those marks were the best in their last four games. They return home where they are 9-3 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams winning at least 60% of their games on the road. Missouri State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Bears are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Loyola-Chicago will be looking to avenge a 79-69 upset loss at home to Missouri State on January 22nd. The Ramblers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing with revenge — and they have won their last two games against the Bears in Springfield. 10* CBB Loyola-Missouri State ESPN Special with the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (845) minus the point(s) versus the Missouri State Bears (846). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-22 |
Eastern Washington +7.5 v. Southern Utah |
Top |
72-84 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Washington Eagles (813) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (814). THE SITUATION: Eastern Washington (11-11) has lost three in a row and four of their last five games after their 90-84 loss at Weber State as an 11-point underdog on Monday. Southern Utah (14-6) has won three straight games and five of their last six contests with their 75-59 victory against Idaho as a 15-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Washington gave Kansas a scare in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament last season — but with every player who scored a point or pulled down a rebound in that game now gone, this was an expected rebuilding season for the program. Head coach Shantay Legman’s also left to rebuild the Portland program so assistant coach Dave Riley was given the reigns of the team. The 32-year-old served on the coaching staff here for ten years — and he has pretty much kept the systems and philosophies that got them to the Big Dance last season. Riley was also able to snag some key transfers to re-inject the roster with talent. Eastern Washington proved that they were still a handful to deal with after upsetting a Washington State team early in the season that currently ranks 32nd in the nation in the KenPom rankings. They are on a losing streak right now — but their four most recent losses were all settled by six points or less. They allowed the Wildcats to make 53.7% of their shots on Monday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Eagles are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss to a Big Sky opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they are 7-8 this season — but they are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 games on the road including covering the point spread in twelve of their last fourteen road games this season. This team continues to be road warriors under Riley’s leadership — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. Eastern Washington has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games with the Total set in the 150s. This Eastern Washington team is once again a good shooting team from deep. They are third in the Big Sky by nailing 37.1% of their 3-pointers. They should have success shooting from behind the arc against this Thunderbirds team that is ninth in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 36.8% of their 3-pointers — and they have been even worse in this department when playing at home with their opponents making 39.0% of their 3-pointers. The Eagles play good perimeter defense by holding their opponents to just 33.0% 3-point shooting, the second-best defensive mark in the conference. Eastern Washington also leads the Big Sky by limiting their opponents to pull down just 20.6% of their missed shots — this should frustrate their home hosts who lead the conference in offensive rebounding. Southern Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. The Thunderbirds are 9-2 on their home court — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing at home. Southern Utah has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Thunderbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored — and they host an Eagles squad that has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Southern Utah did win the first meeting between these two teams by an 89-76 score on December 2nd — but Eastern Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Underdog of the Year with the Eastern Washington Eagles (813) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-22 |
Mercer v. Chattanooga -11 |
|
68-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Chattanooga Mocs (608) minus the points versus the Mercer Bears (607). THE SITUATION: Chattanooga (18-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped with an 80-72 upset loss at Samford as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Mercer (12-10) ended their two-game losing streak with a 67-62 upset win against Wofford as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOCS MINUS THE POINTS: Chattanooga should respond with a big effort back on their home court this afternoon. They are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss to a conference rival. Additionally, Chattanooga is 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. They return home where they are 9-1 this season with a +21.8 net point differential. They are making 49.3% of their shots at home which is generating 80.0 Points-Per-Game — and they are holding their guests to just 37.3% shooting. Chattanooga has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored. The Mocs are a powerful scoring team that ranks 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They pull down 35.1% of their missed shots, ranking 18th in the country. Mercer is 278th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They will likely give Chattanooga plenty of scoring opportunities when considering they turn the ball over in 20.5% of their possessions in conference play — last in the Southern Conference. The Bears have played seven straight Unders after their upset win on Monday — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least two straight Unders. They go back on the road where they are 4-8 this season. They only make 42.8% of their shots on the road — but they allow their home hosts to shoot 46.8% from the field. Mercer has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Mercer-Chattanooga ESPNU Special with the Chattanooga Mocs (608) minus the points versus the Mercer Bears (607). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-22 |
Drexel +5 v. Delaware |
|
76-68 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Drexel Dragons (729) plus the points versus the Delaware Blue Hens (730). THE SITUATION: Drexel (9-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 70-63 loss at UNC-Wilmington as a 2-point underdog on Monday. Delaware (15-7) has won four of their last five games after their 85-69 upset win at James Madison as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DRAGONS PLUS THE POINTS: Drexel is a veteran team that returns the two best players from the group that made the NCAA Tournament after winning the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. Head coach Zach Spiker may have the best point guard in the conference in Camren Wynter — and he is joined by center James Butler to give Drexel a strong inside-out game. The Dragons have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road to complete a four-game road trip where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Drexel is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation — they rank 35th in the county by making 36.8% of their shots from behind the arc. The Dragons lead the CAA by nailing 42.1% of their shots from downtown. They maintain their 3-point efficiency on the road as well where they see their shooting percentage rise to a 37.4% clip. They face a Blue Hens perimeter defense that allows their opponents to make 36.8% of their shots, ranking 315th in the nation. In conference play, Delaware ranks eighth by allowing their opponents to make 38.4% of their 3-pointers. Drexel has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. The Blue Hens may be primed for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win —and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Delaware has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Blue Hens return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Delaware has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Drexel will be motivated to avenge an 81-77 loss at home to the Blue Hens as a 1.5-point favorite on January 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge. 20* CBB Drexel-Delaware CBS Sports Special with the Drexel Dragons (729) plus the points versus the Delaware Blue Hens (730). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-02-22 |
Hornets +6.5 v. Celtics |
|
107-113 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (561) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (562). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (28-23) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 115-90 upset loss against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Boston (27-25) has won four of their last five games with their 122-92 win against Miami as a 6-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte made only 32.7% of their shots on Sunday in what was their worst shooting effort of the season. And the 52.4% shooting they allowed the Lakers to enjoy was tied for the worst defensive performance in their last 19 games. The Hornets should play much better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a double-digit setback. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when playing just for the second time in the last five days. Charlotte goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. The Hornets have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. Boston is just 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a win by 15 or more points. The Celtics are also just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread victory. And while Boston has held their last two opponents to just 97 and 92 points, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games. The Celtics return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: New York will be motivated to avenge a 111-102 upset loss at home to the Hornets on January 19th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Charlotte Hornets (561) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-02-22 |
Drake v. Indiana State +4.5 |
|
85-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Indiana State Sycamores (684) plus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (683). THE SITUATION: Indiana State (9-11) has lost five of their last six games after their 67-52 loss at Bradley as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday. Drake (16-6) has won six of their last seven games after their 77-68 upset win at Loyola-Illinois as a 2-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SYCAMORES PLUS THE POINTS: Indiana State only made 34.0% of their shots against the Braves which was the worst shooting effort of their season. The Sycamores have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing at least five of their last six games. They return home where they are 7-2 this season including a victory against a Missouri State team ranked 59th in the nation at kenpom. Indiana State outscores their guests by +17.5 points per game — they hold these opponents to just 38.4% shooting which is resulting in only 62.4 Points-Per-Game. The Sycamores have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when getting up to six points as an underdog. Drake has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Now they go back on the road where they are 5-5 but getting outscored by -1.3 net PPG. They allow their home hosts to make 45.9% of their shots — and their last five opponents to make 48.0% of their shots which is generating 74.4 PPG. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. Drake has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games when the favorite. Indiana State is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with the Indiana State Sycamores (684) plus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (683). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-22 |
Ole Miss v. LSU -12 |
|
76-72 |
Loss |
-111 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (646) minus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (645). THE SITUATION: LSU (16-5) has lost four of their last five games after their 77-68 loss at TCU as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Mississippi (11-10) has won two of their last three games with their 67056 upset win against Kansas State as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: LSU played one of their worst games of the season in their loss to the Horned Frogs in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge. They only made 36.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. And the 49.1% field goal percentage they allowed TCU to enjoy was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Tigers remain the top defense in the nation in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They return home where they are 11-1 this season a net point differential of +23.2 net Points-Per-Game. LSU holds their guests to a 34.1% field goal percentage which is resulting in a mere 55.9 PPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games at home — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games when favored on their home court. They should generate plenty of scoring opportunities in transition tonight. LSU is sixth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 25.4% of their opponent’s possessions — and they are facing a Rebels team that is 12th in the SEC by turning the ball over in 22.5% of their possessions. Ole Miss held the Wildcats to just 30.2% shooting on Saturday which is tied for the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed this season. But the Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while Mississippi has covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Now after playing their last three games at home, they go back on the road where they are just 1-6 this season. They are getting outscored by -8.7 PPG on the road while making just 40.7% of their shots which is resulting in just 59.3 PPG. Ole Miss has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: The Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. LSU has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by at least 10 points. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the LSU Tigers (646) minus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (645). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-22 |
South Carolina v. Mississippi State -8.5 |
Top |
64-78 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Mississippi State (622) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (621) THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (13-7) has lost two straight games after their 76-50 loss at Texas Tech as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. South Carolina (13-7) won their third straight game with their 74-63 upset win at Texas A&M as a 7-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State played one of their worst games of the season in their SEC-Big 12 Challenge showdown with the Red Raiders. They allowed Texas Tech to make 61.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. And they only made 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting performance in their last 11 contests. Ben Howland’s team should bounce back with a strong effort. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss — and they are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a loss by 20 or more points. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after failing to score at least 60 points in their last contest. This team has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after losing two in a row. They return home where they are 11-1 this season with a +15.6 net Points-Per-Game differential. They make 49.6% of their shots on their home court which is generating 77.3 PPG. They are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home. They should control the glass against the Gamecocks. Mississippi State ranks 21st in the nation by pulling down 35.0% of their missed shots — and South Carolina allows their opponents to rebound 31.9% of their misses, ranking 308th in the nation. And while the Gamecocks rebound 34.9% of their misses, ranking 23rd in the country, the Bulldogs limit their opponents to just 24.1% rebounds of their missed shots, ranking 41st in the nation. The other area where Mississippi State has an edge in getting to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs rank 55th in the nation in free throw rate — and they are facing a South Carolina team that is 350th in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 43.9%. The Gamecocks played their best defensive game in their last nine against the Aggies over the week by holding them to just 34.4% shooting. But South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win by at least 10 points. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in each of their games during their three-game winning streak but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least three in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in three games in a row. South Carolina stays on the road where they are 4-5 on the road but getting outscored by -5.9 PPG. They only make 39.0% of their shots on the road which is resulting in just 62.9 PPG. Frank Martin’s team struggles to shoot the basketball. They rank 262nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.7% — and they only make 63.6% of their free throws, ranking 346th in the country. The Gamecocks rank 13th in the SEC on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Mississippi State has played Florida and Kentucky tough on the road but lacks a marquee win away from home — but their biggest victory of the season was on their home court against Alabama. They will be without Tulu Smith with a knee injury who is a spark plug coming off the bench. But the Bulldogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home when favored — and they host a Gamecocks team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State (622) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-22 |
Tennessee v. Texas -3.5 |
|
51-52 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (768) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (767). THE SITUATION: Texas (15-5) has won two straight games after their 73-50 victory at TCU as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Tennessee (14-5) is on a three-game winning streak with their 78-71 win against Florida as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas continues to improve under first-year head coach Chris Beard as the team becomes more comfortable with his systems and style of play. They raced out to a 43-23 half-time lead in Fort Worth against a Horned Frogs team that just registered a high-profile victory against LSU this afternoon.
|
01-29-22 |
VCU +3.5 v. Richmond |
|
64-62 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (681) plus the points versus the Richmond Spiders (682). THE SITUATION: VCU (12-6) has won two games in a row after their 70-68 upset win at Davidson as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Richmond (13-7) has won three games in a row with their 70-63 win at Rhode Island as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: VCU should off the momentum of their big win against the Wildcats. The Rams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after an upset win against an Atlantic 10 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two games in a row. This is their second game since last Saturday — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing just their second game in a week. This is an interesting matchup since some of the strengths and subsequent weaknesses are mitigated by the tendencies of their opponent. VCU is second in the nation by forcing turnovers in 26.8% of their opponent’s possessions. But good luck turning over the Spiders who are sixth in the nation by turning the ball over in just 13.6% of their possessions. But on the other hand, the Rams sacrifice defensive rebounding to get out on the break — they allow their opponents to pull down 33.6% of their missed shots, ranking 332nd in the nation. But Richmond sacrifices offensive rebounds to defend fast breaks — they only rebound 22.3% of their missed shots, ranking 326th in the nation. VCU still holds an edge in two distinct areas. First, they lead the Atlantic 10 by making 40.9% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play. The Spiders are vulnerable in this regard — they rank 282nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.7% of their 3-pointers with that mark rising to 38.7% in conference play. Second, VCU is outstanding on the defensive end of the court. They rank second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they hold their opponents to just a 37.5% field goal percentage which is resulting in only 61.8 Points-Per-Game. The Rams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Richmond has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering at least three in a row. They return home for the first time since January 14th after playing their last three games on the road. The Spiders are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home after playing their last three games on the road. While they are 7-2 on their home court this season, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home when favored. Richmond has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. And in their last 37 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 range, the Spiders have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: VCU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. 20* CBB VCU-Richmond CBS Sports Network Special with the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (681) plus the points versus the Richmond Spiders (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-28-22 |
Bulls v. Spurs -1.5 |
|
122-131 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (568) minus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bulls (567). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (18-31) has lost three of their last four games with their 118-110 loss to Memphis as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday. Chicago (30-17) has won two in a row with their 111-105 victory against Toronto as a 3.6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Spurs let up on defense against the Grizzlies as they allowed them to make 51.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. San Antonio is still holding their last five opponents to just 45.3% shooting. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread win. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. The Bulls made 54.8% of their shots against the Raptors which was the best shooting performance in their last 15 games. But Chicago is undermanned missing two of their best players in Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. Ball is out with a knee injury while Caruso is dealing with a wrist injury. Chicago has seen a decline in their play on the defensive end of the court. Eight of their last 13 opponents have shot at least 50% from the field against them. They rank 23rd in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency during that 13-game span. The Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They go back on the road where they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and San Antonio has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when favored. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the San Antonio Spurs (568) minus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bulls (567). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-28-22 |
Manhattan +6 v. St. Peter's |
Top |
51-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Manhattan Jaspers (883) plus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (884). THE SITUATION: Manhattan (10-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 78-62 loss at Monmouth as an 8.5-point underdog on Sunday. Saint Peter’s (8-7) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 69-62 upset win at Marist as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JASPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Manhattan should play better tonight against a team that carries a similar profile. The Jaspers only made 35.6% of their shots against the Hawks which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. Manhattan us 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Jaspers are led by 6’5 senior Jose Perez. The Marquette transfer came to Manhattan for his final season — he is scoring 17.9 Points-Per-Game and averaging 4.6 Assists-Per-Game. Head coach Steve Masiello’s team is the second-best in the nation in getting to the free-throw line with a 45.0% free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio. The Jaspers should get plenty of chances at the charity stripe tonight (where they make 74.5% of their free throws) against this Peacocks team that ranks 350th in the nation with an opponent’s free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 43.2%. This Manhattan team is shooting much better inside the arc this season (after making only 44.4% of their 2-pointers last year) with a 54.2% shooting clip in conference play, the top mark in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Association. The Jaspers stay on the road where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Saint Peter’s is just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread win. They return home where they are 4-2 on the season — but they are only making 40.4% of their shots which is resulting in only 66.8 PPG. After playing their last three games on the road, the Peacocks play a home game for the first time since January 18th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after playing at least three straight games on the road. Saint Peter’s are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that can struggle to make shots — and they turn the ball in 20.9% and 20.8% of their possessions. Manhattan has the most impressive victory between these two teams — they beat a Liberty team currently ranked 96th in the nation in the kenpom rankings by 16 points. Saint Peter’s defeated Monmouth who rank 117th at kenpom. The Jaspers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and the Peacocks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Association Underdog of the Month with the Manhattan Jaspers (883) plus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-22 |
Purdue v. Iowa +2.5 |
Top |
83-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (824) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (823). THE SITUATION: Iowa (14-5) has won three of their last four games after their 68-51 win against Penn State as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (16-3) has won four of their last five games with their 80-60 win against Northwestern as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa is once again dynamo on offense under head coach Fran McCaffrey. They rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But what is exciting about this Iowa team is their improved play on defense. After holding Rutgers to just 31.0% shooting eight days ago, they followed that up limiting the Nittany Lions to only 33.3% shooting on Saturday in that win. The Hawkeyes held Penn State to just 25 points in the first half — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. The Hawkeyes stay at home where they have an 11-1 record with a net point differential of +22.5 Points-Per-Game. Iowa makes 48.5% of their shots at home which generates a whopping 90.2 PPG — and they rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on their home court. They limit their guests to 41.0% shooting. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Boilermakers have out-rebounded their last four opponents by at least seven rebounds per game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after out-rebounding their last four opponents by at least six rebounds per game. Purdue has demonstrated some vulnerabilities on defense in Big Ten play — their opponents' effective field goal percentage in conference play of 51.9% ranks ninth. They allow Big Ten opponents to make 34.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking ninth. Big Ten foes are also nailing 51.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 10th in the conference. The Boilermakers do rank number one in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they do drop to sixth in the country in that metric when playing in true road games. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Furthermore, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored by six points or less. Additionally, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored overall — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue won the first meeting between these two teams by a 77-70 in West Lafayette. Iowa played that game with their All-American Keegan Murray who is third in the nation with a 22.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average. The Hawkeyes made only 5 of their 21 shots (23.8%) from behind the arc as well in that game — but now they return home where they make 36.8% of their shots from distance. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (824) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (823). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-22 |
Drake v. Illinois State +4.5 |
|
89-88 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Illinois State Redbirds (720) plus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (719). THE SITUATION: Illinois State (10-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 56-53 upset loss as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Drake (14-6) has won four of their last five games with their 82-74 upset victory at Northern Iowa as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDBIRDS PLUS THE POINTS: Illinois State should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road. They return home where they are 9-2 this season with a +10.0 net point differential. They make 47.1% of their shots at home which results in 78.9 Points-Per-Game — and they hold their opponents to just a 40.9% field goal percentage. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on their home court. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. The Redbirds will be without Sy Chatman who suffered a torn ACL in the loss to the Purple Eagles on Sunday. He was the team’s leading rebounder with a 6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game clip — and he was second on the team with a 13.6 PPG scoring average. But they still have their leading scorer Antonio Reed who is scoring 20.2 PPG and they have forwards who can step up in Chatman’s absence including 6’9 forward Abdou Ndiaye who was expected to compete with Chatman for playing time — Ndiaye is averaging 6 minutes per game before tonight. Drake has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. They go on the road where they are just 4-5 this season. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Drake has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Illinois State will be looking to avenge an 85-76 loss at Drake on January 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 opportunities to avenge a loss this season. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Illinois State Redbirds (720) plus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (719). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-22 |
Iowa State +3.5 v. Oklahoma State |
Top |
84-81 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (721) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (722). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (14-5) has lost two in a row and four of their last five after a 59-44 upset loss at home to TCU as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma State (10-8) has their two-game winning streak end on Saturday in a 56-51 loss at Texas as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State opened the season with 12 straight wins — but they are now facing the difficulties of playing in an uber-competitive Big 12 conference. But it would be a mistake to discount this team that has high-profile victories against Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa, Xavier on a neutral court, and Creighton on the road. They lost by just one point at Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse. They only made 30.9% of their shots on Saturday against the Horned Frogs which was their second-lowest mark of the season. Iowa State is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to score more than 50 points in their last game. Their previous loss was a 72-60 setback last Tuesday at Texas Tech motivated by revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after two straight losses by 10 or more points. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 60 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing their second game in eight days. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 55 points in their last game. Scoring baskets is an issue for this team — they have not scored more than 64 points in eight straight games since a 98-93 win against Cleveland State on December 13th. To compound matters tonight, Oklahoma State will be without point Bryce Williams who is out with an ankle injury. The Cowboys are balanced on offense (or they lack reliable scorers …) — but Williams does lead the team with meager 10.6 Point-Per-Game and 3.3 Assists-Per-Game averages. In their last five games, they are making just 37.9% of their shots which is resulting in 57.2 PPG. They are only 3-3 on their home court where they have lost to the Xavier team that the Cyclones beat on a neutral court — and they also got upset at home to Oakland this season. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: These are two similar teams who rank sixth and seven in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency fueled by the fourth and twelfth best defensive turnover rates in the nation (Iowa State has the better numbers in both instances, by the way). Both teams also are loose with the ball when they have possession (the Cyclones have slightly better seasonal turnover numbers but have been worse in conference play relative to the Cowboys). But Iowa State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when favored. 25* CBB Big 12 Underdog of the Month with the Iowa State Cyclones (721) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-22 |
Towson +1.5 v. Delaware |
Top |
69-62 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Towson Tigers (871) plus the point(s) versus the Delaware Hens (872). THE SITUATION: Towson (14-6) had their five-game winning streak snapped with an 81-77 upset loss to UNC-Wilmington on Saturday. Delaware (14-6) has won three games in a row with their 80-77 win against Elon as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Towson should rebound with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Just ignore last year’s 4-13 record for Towson in a year impacted by COVID and injuries. Head coach Pat Skerry is a veteran head coach with a good track record — and he was aggressive in the transfer market to bolster the talent on his roster. This is a balanced team with four players scoring at least 10.7 Points-Per-Game. As usual, Skerry’s teams attack the offensive glass — the Tigers rank 19th in the nation by pulling down 35.7% of their missed shots. They should get plenty of second-chance opportunities against a Blue Hens team that allows their opponents to rebound 37.1% of their missed shots, 321st in the nation — and they are last in the Colonial Athletic Association by allowing their conference opponents to rebound 39.7% of their misses. This Towson team is different because they are taking many more shots from behind the arc. It is not uncommon for the Tigers to take fewer than 30% of their shots from 3-point range but this year they are taking 38.7% of their shots from distance which is just over the 38.1% national average. Even better, Towson is nailing 36.4% of their 3-pointers, ranking 49th in the nation. The Tigers defense is steadily improving as well — they rank second in the Colonial in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and top the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.0%. Offensive rebounding and defense travels which is why Towson is 7-4 away from home with an average winning margin of +7.3 net Points-Per-Game. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Towson has covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as a dog. Delaware has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home when playing with one day or less of rest. The Blue Hens have won five of their last six games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while Delaware has enjoyed halftime leads of at least seven points in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after leading by at least five points at halftime in at least three games in a row. The Blue Hens are 7-0 at home this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court. Furthermore, Delaware has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. The Blue Hens are led by George Washington transfer Jameer Nelson, Jr., the son of the former NBA player. But the vulnerability of this Delaware team is their defense.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are tied in conference play with a 5-2 record — but the Blue Hens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Towson has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against winning teams — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Underdog of the Month with the Towson Tigers (871) plus the point(s) versus the Delaware Hens (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-22 |
Nets v. Spurs |
|
117-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (548) minus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (547). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (17-28) has won two of their last three games after their 118-96 victory against Oklahoma City as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Brooklyn (28-16) has won two of their last three games with their 119-118 upset win at Washington as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS MINUS THE POINT(S): San Antonio should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in all 5 games this season after beating their last opponent by 20 or more points. They stay at home after a rough road trip where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. San Antonio does not have a great record against winning teams — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Brooklyn continues to be without Kevin Durant who is out indefinitely with his knee injury. The Nets may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win on the road. Brooklyn has also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point spread win. And while their win against the Wizards finished Over the 234 point total, the Nets have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Moving forward, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in January. The Nets are lacking size tonight with Paul Millsap missing the game for personal reasons and Nicolas Claxton doubtful with a hamstring joining Durant on the bench.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio will be looking to avenge their 121-119 loss in Brooklyn as a 9.5-point favorite on January 9th. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road including ten of these fourteen circumstances this season. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 trips to San Antonio to play the Spurs. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with San Antonio Spurs (548) minus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-22 |
Sacred Heart +3.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's |
Top |
59-98 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacred Heart Pioneers (306207) plus the points versus the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306208). THE SITUATION: Sacred Heart (8-11) has won two games in a row after their 74-66 win against Central Connecticut State as a 9-point favorite on Monday. Mount St. Mary’s (6-12) has won two of their last three games after their 57-50 win at Merrimack as a 3-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIONEERS PLUS THE POINTS: This Sacred Heart team almost everyone from the young team that surprised expectations by finishing tied for third in the Northeast Conference last season. The Pioneers got clocked in the conference tournament against Bryant by 30 points — but they demonstrated their growth earlier this season by only losing by three points at Bryant on December 31st. Sacred Heart also scored an impressive opening victory to begin their season with an overtime win at LaSalle. The deeper analytics suggested that the Pioneers overachieved last season — however, the positive impact of head coach Anthony Latina should not be dismissed. Sacred Heart should play well in this game. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after a point spread loss. They are 3-1 so far in conference play. Latina runs a four-guard attack that is led by Tyler Thomas and Aaron Clarke who score 19.1 and 16.2 Points-Per-Game. This team is also one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation that ranks 109th in the country by pulling down 30.8% of their missed shots — and the lead the Northeast Conference by rebounding 37.7% of their misses. This is an area of weakness for the Mountaineers as they rank 233rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 29.6% of their misses. Sacred Heart has not covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Their offensive rebounding travels — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Mount St. Mary’s has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. And while the Mountaineers have played two straight Unders, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Now after playing their last four games on the road, they return home to play for the first time since December 18th. Mount St. Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after playing at least three straight games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home. The Mountaineers have a big frontline with Mezzo Offurum, Nana Opoku, and Malik Jefferson who are 6’8, 6’9, and 6’9 respectively. It is this trio that helped them win the Northeast Conference tournament and go to the Big Dance last March. But these big men don’t shoot from distance - they are a combined 8 of 28 from 3-point land this season with Offurum dominating those numbers by taking 22 of those shots (but only making five). With these three a non-threat from distance with that 28% shooting mark from 3-point land, opponents are happy to play zone defenses against them. Mount St. Mary’s went on their late-season run a year ago because Damian Chong Qui became their Mr. Everything as the primary ball-handler and scorer. He transferred to Indiana-Fort Wayne in the offseason. Head coach Dan Englestad responded by bringing in Jalen Benjamin from UAB to take over that role — but Benjamin has not been as prolific in scoring, rebounding, and assists as Chong Qui, especially in clutch time. The Mountaineers rank 323rd in the nation in eight in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: Mount St. Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Underdog of the Month with the Sacred Heart Pioneers (306207) plus the points versus the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306208). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-22 |
Purdue v. Indiana +4.5 |
|
65-68 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (744) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (743). THE SITUATION: Indiana (13-4) has won three of their last four games after their 78-71 win at Nebraska as an 8-point favorite on Monday. Purdue (15-2) has won three straight and seven of their last eight games after their 96-88 upset win in double-overtimes at Illinois on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hoosiers defeated the Cornhuskers despite allowing them to make 47.1% of their shots — that was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. Indiana has quickly become one of the best defensive teams in the nation in the first season under head coach Mike Woodson who has brought his vast experience as a head coach in the NBA to Bloomington. Indiana ranks 13th in the nation and second in the Big Ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. They return home where they are 11-0 this season with an average winning margin of +22.4 net Points-Per-Game. They have already beaten Ohio State at home this season. They have covered 8 straight games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Hoosiers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games as an underdog. Purdue played their best defensive game in their last five contests after holding the Illini to 41.6% shooting. The Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after playing a game where at least 175 combined points were scored. Purdue has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. One of the Boilermakers’ two losses this season was on the road as a favorite against Rutgers. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Indiana has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 10* CBB Purdue-Indiana FS1-TV Special with the Indiana Hoosiers (744) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (743). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-22 |
St. Louis v. Massachusetts +3.5 |
Top |
85-91 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Massachusetts Minutemen (734) plus the points versus the Saint Louis Billikens (733). THE SITUATION: UMass (7-9) has lost four in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 81-68 loss to Rhode Island as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Saint Louis (11-5) won their third game in their last four with their 63-45 win against Fordham as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MINUTEMEN PLUS THE POINTS: UMass only shot 35.7% from the field on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 14 games. The Minutemen rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. UMass ranks third in the nation by nailing 41.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and they take 41.4% of their field goal attempts from 3-point land. In conference play, the Minutemen are making 46.4% of their 3-pointers. They face a Billikens team that has allowed their five opponents away from home to shoot 36.3% from 3-point land — and their three games in true road games in hostile environments, their home hosts have made 39.7% of their shots from downtown, the 319th worst mark in the nation. UMass has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while they have allowed at 77 and 81 points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. They stay at home where they are 6-2 on the season with an average winning margin of +6.5 Points-Per-Game. They score 80.1 PPG at home — and they have already upset Penn State and Rutgers at home this season. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after playing a game at home. They are also 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games as an underdog. The Billikens made 45.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But they have scored just 63 points in each of their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight contests. They held the Rams to only 28.6% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 13 games. But Saint Louis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 road games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. Away from home, the Billikens are 3-2 while making only 41.4% of their shots — and they allow their opponents to make 47.5% of their shots away from home. Saint Louis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Billikens have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: UMass has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Underdog of the Month with the Massachusetts Minutemen (734) plus the points versus the Saint Louis Billikens (733). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-22 |
American v. Army -9 |
Top |
66-76 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (1142) minus the points versus the American Eagles (1141). THE SITUATION: Army (10-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-54 upset loss at Lafayette as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. American (5-10) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 63-55 win at home against Bucknell in a pick ‘em contest on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Army should respond to their upset loss with a strong performance tonight. They only made 33.9% of their shots on Sunday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring at least 60 points on the road in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a loss on the road. Head coach Jimmy Allen has three starters back from the group that finished 15-15 last season. They were the only Patriot League team that played non-conference games in a year impacted by COVID. They are 4-2 so far in conference play. This team does not give away many freebies at the charity stripe — they rank 11th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. They are also second in the conference by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and they now host a team in the Eagles that is last in the Patriot League by turning the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions. Army returns home where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +16.7 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to 37.4% shooting which results in just 59.5 PPG. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. American was a difficult team to gauge entering this season. They only played ten games last year, winning just four times. They only played three different opponents in their nine regular-season games in the skewed Patriot League schedule impacted by COVID. Their best player from that group, Jamir Harris, transferred to Seton Hall. After an opening game overtime victory against a Marist team that ranks 169th in the currently kenpom rankings, they have since not defeated a team ranked higher than 290th using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Eagles are last in the Patriot League in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are also last in the conference by making only 28.1% of their shots from behind the arc. They go back on the road where they are just 2-8 this season — and they are getting outscored by -16.5 PPG. They only score 62.7 PPG on the road — and they give up 79.2 PPG on 49.6% shooting. American has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Patriot League Game of the Month with the Army Black Knights (1142) minus the points versus the American Eagles (1141). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-18-22 |
Missouri v. Ole Miss -7 |
|
78-53 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET Tuesday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (628) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (627). THE SITUATION: Ole Miss (9-7) has lost two in a row and four of their last five games after their 80-71 loss to Auburn as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Missouri (7-9) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after their 67-64 loss to Texas A&M as a 5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi allowed the Tigers to make 50% of their shots — and that came after Texas A&M made 55.8% of their shots against them in their previous game. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. The Rebels have not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Mississippi has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing four of their last five games. They stay at home where they are 8-2 this season — and they are outscoring their visitors by +10.6 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 41.5% shooting. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Missouri made 47.2% of their shots against the Aggies which was the second-best shooting mark in their last seven games. And by holding Texas A&M to just 38.1% shooting, they enjoyed the best defensive effort in their last seven games. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. Missouri goes back on the road where they are just 1-6 this season while getting outscored by -23.3 PPG. They only make 35.4% of their shots on the road which is resulting in just 56.6 PPG. They allow their home hosts to make 51.0% of their shots. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Mississippi has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Mississippi Rebels (628) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-15-22 |
Raptors +7.5 v. Bucks |
|
103-96 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (519) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (520). THE SITUATION: Toronto (20-19) had their six-game winning streak snapped with a 103-87 loss at Detroit as a 9-point favorite last night. Milwaukee (27-17) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 118-89 victory against Golden State as a 1-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto should respond with strong effort after last night’s disappointing effort. They made only 32.2% of their shots against the Pistons which was the worst shooting effort since the opening game of the season 38 games ago. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Toronto has also covered the point spread in 8 straight games after not scoring more than 90 points in their last game. And in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest, the Raptors have covered the point spread in all 5 games. Toronto stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points as an underdog. Furthermore, the Raptors have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Toronto comes in undermanned with Scottie Barnes out and Gary Trent questionable — but Fred VanVleet is playing at an All-Star level right now and O.G. Anunoby is back in the mix to complement Pascal Siakam and Chris Boucher for their core group. Milwaukee comes off one of the best games of their season. They made 51.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They held the Warriors to 34.7% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 36 contests. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a straight-up victory. Milwaukee stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored. The Bucks are dealing with injuries as well with Brook Lopez out since November and Jrue Holiday unavailable with an ankle injury.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has won the first two meetings between these two teams after upsetting the Bucks in Milwaukee by a 117-111 score on January 5th as a 3-point underdog. The Raptors have covered the point spread in the last 4 meetings between these two teams — and they have covered the point spread in their last 4 games played in Toronto. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Toronto Raptors (519) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-22 |
Indiana v. Iowa -4.5 |
Top |
74-83 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (840) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (839). THE SITUATION: Iowa (11-4) had their four-game winning streak snapped with an 87-78 loss at Wisconsin as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday. Indiana (12-3) won their fifth game in their last six with their 73-60 victory against Minnesota as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa allowed the Badgers to make 50.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Hawkeyes should bounce back tonight as they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road. And while Iowa has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games including the last four of these circumstances. The Hawkeyes are an outstanding offensive team that ranks third in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make the most of their scoring opportunities as they lead the nation with the lowest turnover rate in the nation. Iowa also leads the nation with the lowest block rate in the country — and that is a great attribute to have when facing the Hoosiers’ Trayce Jackson-Davis who blocks 10.5% of the shots in his direction this season. Iowa returns home where they are 9-1 with an average winning margin of +24.2 net Points-Per-Game. The Hawkeyes made 49.5% of his shots at home which generates 93.1 PPG. They also hold their opponents to just 68.8 PPG on 40.8% shooting. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they are 15-6-3 ATS in their last 24 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against a Big Ten opponent. The Hoosiers preceded their victory against the Golden Gophers with a 67-51 win at home against Ohio State — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row against conference foes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning two straight games by double-digits against conference opponents. Indiana is too loose with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions, ranking 209th in the nation. The Hawkeyes do force turnovers — their opponents turn the ball over in 20.0% of their possessions, ranking 107th in the country. Now the Hoosiers go back on the road for just the fifth time in a true road game. They have lost three of those four games while making just 44.7% of their shots. Indiana is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: The Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored. 25* CBB Thursday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (840) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (839). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-11-22 |
Ball State v. Akron -8.5 |
|
74-84 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Akron Zips (640) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (639). THE SITUATION: Akron (8-4) had their six-game winning streak snapped with a 69-63 upset loss to Ohio as a 1.5-point favorite last Tuesday. Ball State (7-7) has won three of their last four games with their 78-72 upset win at Eastern Michigan as a 1-point underdog on January 8th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ZIPS MINUS THE POINTS: Akron should rebound with a strong effort. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss. The Zips have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss to a Mid-American Conference opponent. They only made 9 of 17 (52.9%) of their free throws against the Bobcats — but they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after not making at least 53% of their free throws in their last game. Head coach John Groce’s team is not a great shooting team from the charity stripe — they make only 65.4% of their free throws. But Akron is third in the nation in free throw rate with a free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 44.7%. They should be living at the free-throw line tonight against this Cardinals team that ranks 293rd in the nation in opponent free throw rate. This team is talented — they lost by just one point, 67-66, at Ohio State to begin their season. They stay at home where they are 5-1 with an average winning margin of +14.7 Points-Per-Game. They score a healthy 82.2 PPG at home. The Zips have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games teams with a losing record on the road. Akron has also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set in the 140s. Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after winning four or five of their last six games. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after covering the point spread in at least two in a row. Ball State stays on the road where they are just 2-6 this season with an average losing margin of -13.3 PPG. They only make 42.2% of their shots on the road — and they are allowing their home hosts to score 84.0 PPG on 47.6% shooting. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Akron Zips (640) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (639). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-07-22 |
Brown +3.5 v. Harvard |
Top |
84-73 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Brown Bears (879) plus the points versus the Harvard Crimson (880). THE SITUATION: Brown (8-8) has lost four games in a row after their 77-73 upset loss to Pennsylvania as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Harvard (8-4) is on a three-game winning streak after their 77-69 win against Howard as a 7-point favorite back on December 21st.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Harvard has had their last three scheduled games postponed because of COVID issues. They face rust concerns taking the court for the first time in almost three weeks. As it is, the Crimson have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Harvard plays their fourth straight game at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning their last two games on their home court. This is the Ivy League debut for the Crimson who have played a pretty light schedule that ranks 303rd most difficult according to the metrics at kenpom. They are making only 40.7% of their shots in their last five games — and they have a 43.3% field goal percentage in their seven home games. Harvard has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Crimson will not have the advantage of cheering fans either given the restriction of fans attending games given COVID regulations. Head coach Tommy Amaker recruits well for this team — but Brown head coach Mike Martin has followed his lead by bringing long and athletic talent to his program which makes this team stand out in the league. Led by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year (when the Ivy last played in 2019-20) in Jaylen Gainey who protects the rim down low, the Bears ranks 117th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. That defensive ranking is more impressive considering that Brown ranks 110th in strength of schedule at kenpom. The Bears have beaten Bradley on a neutral court while losing to North Carolina by just a 94-87 score (with the score tied going into the final ten minutes of the game) and losing to Colorado by just two points. Brown has also played Creighton, Maryland, Syracuse, and Vermont — this is a battle-tested group. They were without their top playmaker, Tamenang Cho in four early games including the narrow loss in Chapel Hill. Having played three times since Christmas, Martin’s team is in midseason form. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing four of their last five games. And while they have played seven straight Overs, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games after playing at least two straight Overs. Brown is 4-6 on the road this season — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Brown swept the two regular-season games against Harvard in 2019 before the season got canceled because of COVID. The Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Harvard has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against Ivy League opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Brown Bears (879) plus the points versus the Harvard Crimson (880). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-22 |
Texas-Arlington v. Georgia State -7.5 |
Top |
70-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (760) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (759). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (6-5) has lost four of their last six games after their 72-62 loss to Georgia Tech in overtime as a 5-point underdog on December 21st. UT-Arlington (6-7) won their third straight game with their 62-57 victory against Troy as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia State made only 28.2% of their shots against the Yellow Jackets which was the worst shooting effort of the season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. And while the Panthers got outrebounded by a 51-33 margin, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outrebounded by at least 15 boards in their last game. Georgia State returns all five starters from the group that lost in the Sun Belt Conference tournament championship game last season. COVID has slowed this team down so far this season but they are mostly healthy now in making their conference debut tonight. They are 4-0 at home where they are outscoring their opponents by a whopping +39.0 net Points-Per-Game. The Panthers make 48.9% of their shots at home which is generating 88.0 PPG — and they are holding their opponents just 33.8% shooting and 49.0 PPG. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Panthers are 25th in the nation by making 38.0% of their 3-point shots — and they nail 39.4% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. UT-Arlington is 250th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 34.8% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 272nd in the nation with their opponents making 37.0% of their shots from 3-point range when playing away from home. The Mavericks played their second-best defensive game of the season by holding the Trojans to 30.0% shooting — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after holding their last opponent to no better than 33% shooting. UT-Arlington has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing their second game in a seven-day span. They go back on the road for the first time since December 19th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games after playing their last three games on the road. The Mavericks are just 1-6 on the road where they are scoring only 55.1 PPG on 37.3% shooting. They are getting outscored by -16.8 PPG on the road. UT-Arlington has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia State should force plenty of turnovers tonight — they rank 46th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.0% of their opponent’s possessions. UT-Arlington is 324th in the nation by turning the ball over in 22.5% of their possessions — and they have turned it over in 23.1% of their possessions on the road. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (760) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (759). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-22 |
Pistons v. Hornets -10 |
|
111-140 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (534) minus the points versus the Detroit (533). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (19-19) has lost two straight games after their 124-121 loss at Washington as a 1.5-point underdog on Monday. Detroit (7-28) has won two straight games after their 115-106 upset win at Milwaukee as a 16-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS MINUS THE POINTS: Charlotte should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are 9-5 this season with a 116.0 Points-Per-Game scoring average from a 47.8% field goal percentage. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Charlotte is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games when favored. And in their last 52 games against teams who are not winning at least 40% of their games, the Hornets are 38-13-1 ATS. Detroit has pulled off two straight upset wins as they stunned San Antonio at home by a 117-116 score as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. But the Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against a Central Division rival. Additionally, Detroit has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. They stay on the road for the fifth time in their last seven games where they have just a 3-15 record. They are allowing their home hosts to score 112.5 PPG on 48.2% shooting — and they are getting outscored by -11.4 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons are missing several players. Jeramy Grant is out indefinitely with a thumb injury and Isaiah Livers is out with a foot injury. Isaiah Stewart and Cory Joseph will not play as they rebuild their conditioning after testing positive for COVID. Charlotte is pretty healthy with point guard P.J. Washington upgraded to probable in his return from COVID. Vernon Carey is out as he works on his conditioning and Scottie Lewis is questionable to return. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against the Hornets — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Charlotte. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Charlotte Hornets (534) minus the points versus the Detroit (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-22 |
Kentucky v. LSU -2 |
Top |
60-65 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (621). THE SITUATION: LSU (12-1) lost their first game of the season in a 70-55 loss at Auburn as a 4.5-point underdog on December 22nd. Kentucky (11-2) has won four games in a row with their 92-48 victory against High Point as a 27-point favorite on December 31st.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: LSU should respond with a strong effort as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with five or six days of rest. The Tigers played their worst game of the season against Auburn. Their 28.6% shooting percentage was the lowest of the season for them — and the 43.4% mark they allowed those Tigers to hit was actually their worst defensive effort of the year. LSU is the top-rated team in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at KenPom. They return home where they are 8-0 this season with an average winning margin of +32.7 Points-Per-Game. They score 84.6 PPG on 49.4% shooting from the field. They hold their guests to 32.1% shooting and just 51.9 PPG. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games at home — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games when favored. The Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Kentucky shot 59.1% from the field against High Point which was the best shooting mark for them all season. And the 31.1% shooting they allowed was also the best defensive mark for them all year. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Kentucky has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after winning at least three games in a row. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Wildcats play their first road game away from home since December 11th. Kentucky is just 1-2 away from home this season — and they allow teams not playing in their Rupp Arena to make 47.1% of their shots. The Wildcats are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Kentucky does not get to the free-throw line either — they rank 320nd in the nation in free throw rate. Not getting freebies against a team that is so good on defense will be tough.
FINAL TAKE: LSU has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the LSU Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-21 |
Warriors v. Suns -5.5 |
Top |
116-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 5:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (590) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (589). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (26-5) has won five straight games after their 113-101 victory against Oklahoma City as a 15-point favorite on Thursday. Golden State (26-6) has won five of their last six games after their 113-104 victory against Memphis as a 5.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix won five of their seven games played without Devin Booker who was out with an injury. Booker returned to the court three games ago in a 137-106 victory against Charlotte on Sunday before the Suns beat the Lakers in Los Angeles by a 108-90 score on Tuesday. Booker scored 30 points on Thursday against the Thunder. Phoenix is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after winning at least two games in a row by 10 or more points. The Suns stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Phoenix has built off their NBA Finals run by consistently playing tough on the defensive end of the court. They are second in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to just 100.4 Points-Per-Game on 40.6% shooting from the field. The Suns will be without Frank Kaminsky and Abdel Nader to injury — but it is the Warriors who are more depleted by positive COVID tests right now. Golden State will be without Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins, and Damion Lee who are all in quarantine. Poole and Wiggins are playing important supporting roles for this team. Andre Iguodala is questionable as well with a knee injury — and if he does not play, they are missing players on the wing. The Warriors come off their best defensive effort in their last four games on Thursday after holding the Grizzlies to just 42.2% shooting. Golden State is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win. The Warriors go back on the road where they have lost four of their six games. They are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix held Stephen Curry to just 4 of 21 shooting in the first meeting between these two teams that they won by a 104-96 score on November 30th. The Suns the rematch on December 3rd by a 118-96 score without Booker with his injury earlier this month. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 7 straight games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games when avenging a loss by double-digits. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Television Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (590) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (589). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-21 |
Arizona v. Tennessee |
Top |
73-77 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (752) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Wildcats (751). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (8-2) has won two in a row after their 96-52 victory against USC Upstate as a 35.5-point favorite on December 14th. Arizona (11-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 84-60 victory against Cal-Baptist as a 28-point favorite on December 18th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on their home court — and they are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games after a win by 20 or more points. This is an outstanding defensive team that ranks second in the nation at kenpom in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last four opponents to 36.8% or lower shooting from the field. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after not allowing their two opponents to make no better than 37% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing their last three opponents to make more than 37% of their shots. They have generated 15 and 13 steals in each of their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 home games after registering double-digit steals in two straight games. The Volunteers are 6-0 on their home court with an average winning margin of +32.8 net Points-Per-Game average margin of victory. The conventional wisdom regarding Tennessee is that they struggle against elite defenses. But their two losses this season to Villanova and Texas Tech in overtime were both on neutral courts. They have also beaten North Carolina on a neutral court and Colorado in Boulder. Back home in Knoxville, the Volunteers make 49.1% of their shots and score 87.0 PPG. They also make 41.7% of their shots from 3-point range at home as compared to their 23.2% shooting clip from behind the arc when on the road. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored overall. Arizona held Cal-Baptist to just 33.3% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game at home where they won but did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Additionally, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least eight games in their last ten contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning at least three straight games. The Wildcats have beaten Illinois on the road in Champagne and Michigan on a neutral court in Las Vegas — but they needed overtime to defeat Wichita State in that same tournament in Vegas the night before beating the Wolverines. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: It has been a surprising start for first-year head coach Tommy Lloyd — but this will be the biggest test for the former Gonzaga assistant who has brought in several transfer players to Tuscon to form an interesting squad. The Wildcats are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in December. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Tennessee Volunteers (752) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Wildcats (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-17-21 |
Spurs +11.5 v. Jazz |
|
128-126 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (567) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (568). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (10-17) has lost two of their last three games with their 131-115 upset loss to Charlotte as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Utah (20-7) has won eight in a row after their 124-103 win against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 9.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio allowed the Hornets to make 59.3% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the worst defensive effort of the season. Head coach Gregg Popovich should have his team tighten things up on that end of the court. The Spurs hold their home hosts to 45.0% shooting which is resulting in only 104.2 Points-Per-Game. San Antonio is 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Spurs are also 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 220s. San Antonio has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Spurs are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Utah shot 52.8% from the field against the Clippers on Wednesday after making 51.6% of their shots against Washington. The Jazz have also made at least 47.3% of their shots in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after shooting at least 47% in four straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight contests. Utah stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Jazz have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs are in pretty good health with Lonnie Walker IV questionable with an illness (but no sign of a COVID outbreak on the team). San Antonio has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Utah has been lukewarm when laying double-digits — they have 19-20 ATS in their last 39 games when laying 10 or more points including 4-5 ATS this season. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the San Antonio Spurs (567) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-11-21 |
Jazz v. Wizards +7.5 |
|
123-98 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (554) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (553). THE SITUATION: Washington (15-11) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 119-116 win at Detroit as a 5-point favorite on Wednesday. Utah (18-7) has won six games in a row after their 118-96 loss at Philadelphia as a 3-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road. Despite that triumph, the Wizards have not covered the point spread in four straight games. Washington has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after not covering the point spread in at least two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They return home for an important home game since it is their only contest in front of their home fans in a ten-game stretch. The Wizards have played their three previous games on the road — and they will then play their next six games on the road before finally getting another home game on December 26th. Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home as an underdog. The Wizards have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Washington is undermanned with Thomas Bryant and Kyle Kuzma out for this game — but depth is a strength for this team under rookie head coach Wes Unseld, Jr. They face a Utah team that may be ripe for a letdown after their last two games by 32 and 22 points. The Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after winning their last two games by double-digits. This is Utah’s third game on the road since Wednesday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing their third game in four days on the road. The Jazz finish a four-game road trip tonight — and they are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home (Washington: 8-3 at home).
FINAL TAKE: Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Wizards. 10* NBA Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Washington Wizards (554) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-11-21 |
Mississippi State v. Colorado State |
Top |
63-66 |
Loss |
-116 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (625) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado State Rams (626). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (6-2) had their two-game winning streak end in an 81-76 upset loss to Minnesota as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday. Colorado State (9-0) remained undefeated this season after their 74-58 win against Saint Mary’s as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Mississippi State probably played their worst game of the season against the Golden Gophers. Their 43.7% shooting percentage was the second-lowest of the year — and the 49.2% shooting mark by Minnesota was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage this season. Head coach Ben Howland should have his team prepared for this contest. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less. Mississippi State has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss. The Bulldogs have not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. This team should play well on a neutral court — they pull down 37.6% of their missed shots, ranking 12th best in the nation. Colorado State comes off their biggest win of the season in what was their second straight victory by double-digits. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. And while Colorado State has covered the points spread in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Rams lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 61.3% fueled by them nailing 44.0% of their shots from behind the arc, the best 3-point shooting percentage in the country. But seven of Colorado State’s nine games have been at home. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Rams go back on the road for just the third time this season. Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their three previous games at home. The Rams have seen their 3-point shooting drop to 40.3% away from home — and now they face this Bulldogs team that holds their opponents to just 31.9% shooting from 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State is vulnerable on defense as they rank 104th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral court as an underdog. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, Colorado State is 2-5-1 ATS. 25* CBB ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (625) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado State Rams (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-21 |
Celtics +3.5 v. Clippers |
|
111-114 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (525) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (526). THE SITUATION: Boston (13-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 117-102 loss in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 4-point underdog last night. Los Angeles (13-12) has won two of their last three games with their 102-90 victory as a 3-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINTS: Boston allowed the Lakers to make 51.6% of their shots last night in what was the second-worst defensive effort in their last 15 games. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road after a loss by 10 or more points in their last game. The Celtics play without rest tonight but it was not a travel day with this game being played at Crypto.com Arena (formerly the Staples Center). As it is, Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing without rest. The Lakers also out-rebounded them by a 51 to 34 margin on the boards — but the Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after being out-rebounded by -15 or more rebounds in their last game. Boston has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The Clippers return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, the Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Boston will be without Jaylen Brown tonight as he recovers from a hamstring injury but Jayson Tatum and company will still take the court. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. And in their last 4 meetings with the Clippers, Boston has covered the point spread all 4 times. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Boston Celtics (525) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-21 |
Marquette +2 v. Kansas State |
Top |
64-63 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (711) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas State (712). Marquette (7-2) looks to rebound from an 89-76 loss at Wisconsin as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas State (5-2) comes off a 65-59 upset win at Wichita State as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES PLUS THE POINT(S): Marquette allowed the Badgers to make 50.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was their worst defensive performance of the season. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 road games after a double-digit loss on the road. Marquette has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Golden Eagles have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. First-year head coach Shaka Smart has this team playing like his “Havoc” teams at Virginia Commonwealth at a rapid pace and with a full-court 1-2-2 pressing zone. The Eagles lead the nation by averaging only 14.8 seconds per possession. Smart did not inherit a returning starter from last season — under 20% of the production from last year returned. But he did bring in Darryl Morsell from Maryland after he won the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Award last season. Smart’s Havoc tactics help to compensate for the lack of experience. Marquette has already pulled off upset victories against Illinois, West Virginia, and Mississippi. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. Smart’s teams are 41-23-1 ATS in his last 65 road games as an underdog — and his teams have covered the point spread in eight of their last eleven games on the road as an underdog going back to last season with Texas. Kansas State appears to be without their leading scorer Nigel Pack who is in the concussion protocol. He is scoring 15.8 Points-Per-Game while nailing 49.6% of their shots from 3-point range. Pack did not play in their upset win against the Shockers - but they only made 33.9% of their shots in the win. The Wildcats hosts this game at Bramage Coliseum — but the home fans are not quite as rowdy in non-conference games in December as they will be once the Big 12 schedule begins. As it is, Kansas State is just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games at home. Furthermore, the Wildcats are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 home games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying up to six points. Kansas State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Marquette should have an edge at the charity stripe tonight. The Golden Eagles rank 15th in the nation in free throw rate — and Kansas State is 227th in defensive free throw rate in putting their opponent on the line. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Marquette Golden Eagles (711) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas State (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-21 |
Spurs v. Blazers -4.5 |
|
114-83 |
Loss |
-106 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 12/2:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut on Thursday was with the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs. Portland (11-11) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 110-92 win against Detroit as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Trail Blazers are now 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games when favored. Portland has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. San Antonio (6-13) has won two games in a row after their 116-99 win against Washington on Monday. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win by 10 or more points. San Antonio has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games as an underdog. The Trail Blazers are without Damian Lillard indefinitely with an abdominal injury but they should still pull away from a rebuilding Spurs team tonight. Lay the points with Portland. Best of luck — Frank.
Frank Sawyer CA$HED their NBA play on Washington last night to further his 34 of 56 (61%) All-Sports run over the last 21 days! Frank is also on a 16 of 23 (70%) NFL run — and he furthers his 12 of 18 (67%) NFL Prime-Time run with tonight’s Cowboys-Saints’ ATS winner on Fox-TV at 8:20 PM ET! Frank also tests his 9 of 10 (90%) NFL TOTALS TEAR with tonight's O/U winner! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank! Frank also spots a BIG DOG in the NBA that will keep their game MUCH CLOSER THAN EXPECTED! CA$H IT IN!
|
12-02-21 |
Thunder +11.5 v. Grizzlies |
|
79-152 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (561) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (562). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (6-15) has lost seven straight games and nine of their last ten after their 114-110 upset loss to Houston last night as a 2.5-point favorite. Memphis (11-10) has won two in a row with their 98-91 win at Toronto as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City allowed the Rockets to make 50.6% of their shots last night which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage this season. This is a young team — but they are playing solid on the defensive end of the court where they rank 13th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss in their last game. Oklahoma City should handle the lack of rest as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing their third game in four days. The Thunder go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. Additionally, Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points as an underdog. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning two of their last three games. The defense has been the problem for this team as they are last in the league in Defensive Efficiency. Ja Morant has been bailing them out — but their star player is out indefinitely with a knee injury. The Grizzlies return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Memphis has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City is making only 41.1% of their shots — but the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are not making more than 43% of their shots. 10* NBA Big Dog Surprise with the Oklahoma City Thunder (561) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-21 |
Wolves v. Wizards -4.5 |
|
107-115 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (540) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (539). THE SITUATION: Washington (13-8) has lost three of their last five games after their 116-99 upset loss at San Antonio as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Minnesota (11-10) has won two in a row and seven of their last eight after their 100-98 victory as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS MINUS THE POINTS: Washington allowed the Spurs to make 53.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting percentage they allowed in their last 16 games. The Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win. Washington has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread victory. They return home for this contest where they have a 7-2 record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on their home court. Minnesota held the Pacers to just 39.6% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five contests. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after a win on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow win by three points or less. Minnesota has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning two games in a row. The T-Wolves go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Minnesota has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Wizards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 trips to Washington to play the Wizards. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Washington Wizards (540) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-21 |
Hawks v. Grizzlies +1.5 |
|
132-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (544) minus the point(s) versus the Atlanta Hawks (543). THE SITUATION: Memphis (9-9) has lost two of their last three games with their 126-113 upset loss to Toronto as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday. Atlanta (10-9) has won six in a row after a 124-106 win at San Antonio as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINT(S): Memphis should respond with a better effort tonight. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Memphis has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a loss by 10 or more points. Not having Dillon Brooks early in the season held this team back — especially on the defensive end of the court — but he is working himself back into playing shape this month and should play tonight after logging in 20+ minutes against the Raptors. It is Ja Morant who is the straw that stirs the drink for this team. He entered the week one made basket shy of a 50% shooting clip — but he has made only 17 of his 45 shots in his two games this week. He is still scoring 25.3 Points-Per-Game while dishing out 7.1 Assists-Per-Game and pulling down 6.1 Rebounds-Per-Game. The Grizzlies return home where they are 6-4 and where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Atlanta has taken a step back on defense this season in the first full season under head coach Nate McMillan — they rank 25th in the Defensive Efficiency. Losing De’Andre Hunter for eight weeks to a wrist injury does not help the defensive cause for this group. Bogdan Bogdanovich is questionable with a hamstring injury. The Hawks are only 2-8 on the road after their win against the Spurs two days ago. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight home games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has been favored in all six games during their current winning streak. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games as an underdog. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Memphis Grizzlies (544) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Atlanta Hawks (543). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-21 |
Gonzaga v. UCLA +7 |
Top |
83-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (618) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (617) in the Finals of the Empire Classic tournament. THE SITUATION: UCLA (5-0) has opened the season with five straight victories after their 75-62 victory against Bellarmine last night in their opening game in this two-day tournament. Gonzaga (5-0) has won five games in a row to open the season with their 107-54 win against Central Michigan as a 34-point favorite last night in their first game in this event. The Empire Classic takes place on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA continues to be undervalued by the market after their improbable run to the Final Four last season. The Bruins were the beneficiaries of some shooting luck in the NCAA Tournament — but shooting luck did not account for them going blow-for-blow with that loaded Gonzaga team in the National Semifinals. UCLA improved as the season went on under second-year head coach Mick Cronin teaching his defensive principles in a season marred by COVID. The Bruins return three players that are on the preseason Wooden Award watch list in Johnny Juzang (who single-handedly beat Michigan in the Elite Eight), Tyger Campbell (started every game at point guard for Cronin at UCLA), and Jamie Jaquez, Jr. (last year’s second-leading scorer). Cronin won’t have big man Cody Riley tonight as he recovers from an MCL injury — but he brought in Myles Johnson as a transfer from Rutgers with his seven-foot-seven wingspan. He was 19th in the nation last year in block rate. Peyton Watson is a top-ten recruit who also gets added into the mix of a group that has 91% of the returning minutes back from the Final Four team. This is a loaded group that continues to improve under Cronin. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. UCLA only made 45.2% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort for them so far this season — and the 45.1% shooting they allowed last night was the second-highest of the year. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss after failing to cover the 22.5-point spread last night. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Gonzaga held the Chippewas to just 30.4% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort of the season. After a 12-point win against Texas in their second game of the year, the Bulldogs have won their next three games by at least 27 points — but that was against a Bellarmine team ranked 188th in the nation in KenPom’s rankings. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning three in a row by at least 15 points. They have covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after only failing to cover the point spread once in their last four games. And while they have scored at least 84 points in each of their games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 80 points in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road after scoring at least 80 points in five straight games. Gonzaga’s stiffest competition was against a Texas team under new coach Chris Beard coaching a group of high-profile transfers. That Longhorns team is a few months away from successfully executing Beard’s no-middle defense that attempts to trap the ball to one side of the court. Gambling on that guess was pure guesswork early in the season (which is why I tend to embrace caution in the November CBB games — especially with the transfer market now even busier in the offseason). What was telling in that game, for me, was that the Zag’s 7’0 freshman phenom Chet Holmgren made just one of three shots for 2 points. I think it remains to be seen if he is a good fit when playing on the floor with the 6’10 Drew Timme. The twin towers look is not as successful for modern basketball — and Holmgren’s ability to defend the perimeter is an issue (and it is not a strength for Timme). Gonzaga should be great once again this year — but this group is a work in progress for head coach Mark Few after losing a top-five pick in Jalen Suggs along with two other starters in outside shooter Corey Krispert and a glue guy in Joel Ayayi.
FINAL TAKE: UCLA’s victory over Villanova this season is more impressive than Gonzaga’s win over the Longhorns. Cronin will have his team very motivated to avenge their 93-90 loss to the Bulldogs in the Final Four last year — and he has had all the off-season to scheme a defensive play against Timme. The Bruins are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog. UCLA has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (618) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (617). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-20-21 |
76ers v. Blazers -6 |
|
111-118 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (548) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (547). THE SITUATION: Portland (8-8) has won three of their last four games after their 112-107 win against Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Philadelphia (9-7) snapped their five-game losing streak with a 103-89 upset win at Denver as a 7.5-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland dug themselves into a first-half hole against the Bulls as they went into halftime trailing by a 63-48 score. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in nine of their last eleven games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their last game. Portland is playing better defense under rookie head coach Chauncey Billups. After posting the league’s second-worst Defensive Efficiency Rating of 115.3 last year, the Blazers have improved their Defensive Efficiency to a 110.1 mark this year. While that only ranks 26th in the league, Billups only needs this team to be middle-of-the-road on that end of court given the firepower he has on offense. Portland has covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored. The Trail Blazers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Philadelphia played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Nuggets to just 36.0% shooting. They also made 50.6% of their shots in that game which was the best shooting mark in their last six games. But the 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset win by double-digits. Philly remains a circus with the Ben Simmons situation unresolved — and whether due to his absence or the lack of talent they will bring in when he is inevitably traded, depth is an issue for this team. The Sixers have also been hit hard with injuries and COVID. Joel Embiid is on the COVID list and Danny Green is not available tonight with his hamstring. Philadelphia is just 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Portland looks to avenge a 113-103 loss at Philadelphia as a 2-point road favorite on November 1st. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 10* NBA Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Portland Trail Blazers (548) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-19-21 |
Pacers +1.5 v. Hornets |
Top |
118-121 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (513) plus the point(s) versus the Charlotte Hornets (514). THE SITUATION: Indiana (6-10) has lost two in a row after their 97-89 upset loss at Detroit as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Charlotte (9-7) has won four in a row with their 97-87 win against Washington as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Indiana should respond with a strong effort under head coach Rick Carlisle in his first-year back with the organization. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after an upset loss to a Central Division rival as a favorite laying at least six points. Indiana has not had their shots fall in their last two games as they have not even reached 90 points in their last two games. They are still averaging 106.3 PPG. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to score at least 105 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score in triple digits in two straight games. Indiana started the season slow by losing five of their first six games. Since Caris LeVert was healthy enough to take the court in their seventh game, the Pacers have ranked 13th in the league in Net Efficiency Margin. Five of their losses have been by four points or less — and they did upset Utah and Philadelphia last week before this recent rough patch. Carlisle has this team playing better on defense. They have held five of their last eight opponents to 100 or fewer points — and only one of their last six opponents has made more than 43.0% of their shots. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams with winning records. Charlotte had pulled off three straight upset wins against Memphis, New York, and Golden State before their victory against the Wizards on Wednesday. We had Washington in that game — and the expected shot quality data from that game projected the Wizards to win by 11 points (for what that is worth). While the Hornets’ defensive field goal percentage of 36.7% in that game was their best mark of the season, the shot quality data suggests that had more to do with Washington having a bad night shooting the basketball than it being about the play of the Charlotte defense. The Hornets rank just 25th in the league in Defensive Efficiency. A letdown is likely. Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win at home. The Hornets have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. And in their last 11 games after winning at least three in a row, Charlotte has lost 7 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: In their last ten games, the Hornets only rank 20th in Net Efficiency Margin. They did beat the Pacers at home on October 20th by a 123-122 score — but Indiana has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when motivated by revenge. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Indiana Pacers (513) plus the point(s) versus the Charlotte Hornets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-21 |
Mavs v. Suns -8 |
|
98-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (576) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (575). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (10-3) has won nine straight games with their 99-96 win at Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Monday. Dallas (9-4) has won two straight and five of their last six games with their 111-101 win against Denver as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix defeated the Timberwolves despite shooting a season-low 37.6% of their shots from the field. The Suns held Minnesota to just 36.5% shooting in their third-straight game where they did not allow their opponent to make more than 40.7% of their shots. In their nine-game winning streak, Phoenix has held seven of those opponents to no better than 40.7% shooting. The Suns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored — and they are 48-22-1 ATS in their last 71 games against teams with a winning record. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Mavericks made 50.0% of their shots against the Nuggets in what was their third-best shooting effort of the season. Despite winning nine of thirteen games, Dallas has a negative Net Rating while ranking in the bottom half of the league in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. They go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games as an underdog. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games against the Suns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 trips to Phoenix. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (576) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (575). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-21 |
Wizards +1 v. Hornets |
Top |
87-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (559) plus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (560). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-3) has won five games in a row with their 105-100 win against New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. Charlotte (8-7) has won three straight games with their 106-102 upset win against Golden State as a 5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington has been one of the biggest surprises of the NBA this season. Led by Bradley Beal, the Wizards made the playoffs last season. And while he is no longer playing alongside a second superstar in Russell Westbrook, the haul Washington got back in trading him to the Lakers has given this team intriguing depth. The Wizards brought back Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell in the deal — and they also added Spencer Dinwiddie via free agency in the offseason. Rookie head coach Wes Unseld, Jr. has done a great job with this team — especially on the defensive end the court. Washington is fourth in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency — and they are seventh in the league in Net Rating. Washington has won their last two games with Bradley Beal who has taken personal time after the death of his grandmother. Beal returns to the court tonight — and he should be playing with extra emotion. As it is, the Wizards have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread victory. And while their game with the Pelicans finished Under the 208 Total, they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after playing Under the Total in their last game. And while Washington has won eight of their last ten games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They go back on the road where they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games. Charlotte has pulled off three straight upset wins after beating Memphis by 10 points and Golden State by 8 points before their 4-point win against the Warriors. But the Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning three in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after pulling off three straight upset wins. Charlotte made 47.7% of their shots against the Warriors in what was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. The Hornets are second in the NBA by making 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc — but the Wizards lead the league by containing their opponents to just 30.7% shooting from downtown. Charlotte stays at home where they are 4-2 this season — but they are outscoring their guest by only +1.9 PPG. They are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games with the Total set in the 220-229.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Hornets need to being hitting their 3s since they rank 26th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. Charlotte has been inconsistent this season — but they are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 25* NBA Southeast Division Underdog of the Month with the Washington Wizards (559) plus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-21 |
Villanova v. UCLA -2.5 |
|
77-86 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (888) minus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (887). THE SITUATION: UCLA (1-0) opened their season with a 95-58 victory against Cal-State Bakersfield as a 23-point favorite on Tuesday. Villanova (1-0) began their campaign with a 91-51 victory against Mount St. Mary’s as a 25.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINT(S): UCLA is being undervalued by the market after their improbable run to the Final Four last season. The Bruins were the beneficiaries of some shooting luck in the NCAA Tournament — but shooting luck did not account for them going blow-for-blow with that loaded Gonzaga team in the National Semifinals. UCLA improved as the season went on under second-year head coach Mick Cronin teaching his defensive principles in a season marred by COVID. The Bruins return three players that are on the preseason Wooden Award watch list in Johnny Juzang (who single-handedly beat Michigan in the Elite Eight), Tyger Campbell (started every game at point guard for Cronin at UCLA), and Jamie Jaquez, Jr. (last year’s second-leading scorer). Cronin won’t have big man Cody Riley tonight as he recovers from an MCL injury — but he brought in Myles Johnson as a transfer from Rutgers with his seven-foot-seven wingspan. He was 19th in the nation last year in block rate. Peyton Watson is a top-ten recruit who also gets added into the mix of a group that has 91% of the returning minutes back from the Final Four team. This is a loaded group that continues to improve under Cronin. They get to host this game at Pauley Pavilion where they are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games. The Bruins are also 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after a straight-up win — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point spread victory. Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point spread win. This is a very tough spot for head coach Jay Wright’s team to travel across the country early in the season to then play when their body clocks tell them it is 11:30 PM ET. The Wildcats return Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels who are great college basketball players — but Wright is not bringing in the NBA talent that he was just a few years ago. Four starters return from the group that lost to Baylor in the Sweet 16. But Wright is replacing Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who was the lynchpin of what was an otherwise suspect team on defense — he was drafted by the Oklahoma City Thunder early in the second round of the NBA draft. Villanova tends to live-by-the-tree but die-by-the-three — they nailed 53% of their 3-pointers on Tuesday. Defending the arc will be a point of emphasis for Cronin after allowing Cal-State Bakersfield to make 41% of their 3-pointers. The Bruins held their opponents to 33.7% of the shots from downtown last season.
FINAL TAKE: Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. UCLA is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 10* CBB Villanova-UCLA ESPN2 Special with the UCLA Bruins (888) minus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (887). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-21 |
Knicks -1.5 v. Hornets |
Top |
96-104 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (555) minus the point(s) versus the Charlotte Hornets (556). THE SITUATION: New York (7-5) has lost four of their last six games with their 112-100 upset loss to Milwaukee as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Charlotte (6-7) snapped their five-game losing streak with a 118-108 upset win at Memphis as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. The Knicks added scoring punch to their playoff team last year by acquiring Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier. The new starting backcourt for head coach Tom Thibodeau has created scoring depth for this team — they rank fifth in the league in Offensive Efficiency. New York goes on the road where they are 5-1 this season. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Charlotte played their best defensive game of the season by holding their opponents to just 42.5% of their shots. The Hornets still rank 28th in the league in Defensive Efficiency. They also made 45.6% of their shots which was the second-highest shooting percentage in their last six games. But Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they have failed to cover the pint spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games with the Total set at 220 to 229.5 point range. Furthermore, Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 38 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Road Warrior of the Month with the New York Knicks (555) minus the point(s) versus the Charlotte Hornets (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-21 |
Heat -4 v. Lakers |
Top |
117-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (547) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (548). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 113-96 upset loss at Denver as a 1.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (6-5) has won four of their last six games with their 126-123 win against Charlotte as a 2-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: The Heat made only 39.7% of their shots against the Nuggets in what was the second-worst shooting performance in their last six games. But Miami still ranks third in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Tyler Herro has bounced back from a sophomore slump last year to lead the team in scoring in the preseason and carry over that momentum into the regular season. He is scoring 20.3 PPG after his first ten games giving the Heat a scoring punch off the bench. Frankly, the Heat should be given a pass for taking a step back last year after their surprising run to the NBA Finals in the bubble in the fall of 2020. The shortened offseason did not help a team that was later hit hard by COVID and injuries — and then they caught a Milwaukee team in the playoffs motivated to avenge their playoff loss to Miami in the bubble. The Heat also made a couple of nice additions in the offseason to add Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker which gives the team toughness and more defensive acumen. The Heat rank sixth in the NBA Defensive Efficiency. This group is a serious contender to win the Eastern Conference and get back to the NBA Finals. Miami has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Lakers are playing without LeBron James who is out indefinitely with an abdominal injury. LA is significantly worse without James. Entering the week, the Lakers were outscoring their opponents by +2.9 points per 100 possessions with James on the court — but they are getting outscored by -4.7 points per 100 possessions when James is not on the court. Los Angeles is scoring 10 points fewer per 100 possessions without James on the court. The play of the Lakers’ defense has also been a problem even with James healthy. After leading the league in Defensive Efficiency last season, Los Angeles ranks just 14th in efficiency this season. They are allowing their opponents to pull down 28.8% of their missed shots ranking 24th in the NBA — and the Heat is fourth in the league by rebounding 30.3% of their missed shots. LA also ranks last in the league in opponent free throw rate — and Miami is third in free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home in the Staples Center — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are dealing with injuries — but the allure of playing on national television should help some of these players listed as questionable to take the court. Jimmy Butler is ready to roll. The Lakers are still without Talent Horton-Tucker and Trevor Ariza who are important for both depth and better play on defense. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when getting the points. Miami is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games when favored. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Miami Heat (547) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-05-21 |
Grizzlies v. Wizards -2 |
Top |
87-115 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (538) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (537). THE SITUATION: Washington (5-3) has lost two in a row after their 109-100 upset loss to Toronto as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Memphis (5-3) has won three of their last four games after pulling off their second straight upset win against Denver on Wednesday in a 108-106 upset victory as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS MINUS THE POINTS: Washington should rebound with a strong effort tonight. The Wizards have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Washington is also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. And while the Wizards have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Led by Bradley Beal, the Wizards made the playoffs last season. And while he is no longer playing alongside a second superstar in Russell Westbrook, the haul Washington got back in trading him to the Lakers has given this team intriguing depth. The Wizards brought back Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell in the deal — and they also added Spencer Dinwiddie via free agency in the offseason. Washington stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 home games with the Total set at 220 to 229.5 point range. Additionally, the Wizards have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games when favored. Memphis made 51.9% of their shots on Wednesday to pull off their second-straight upset win against the Nuggets this week. That was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. But the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a close win by three points or less at home. Memphis goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Grizzlies have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Memphis is playing without Dillon Brooks who is out with a hand injury. The team misses his impact on defense — the Grizzlies rank last in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Their struggles on the defensive end of the court have pulled down their Net Rating so far this season to just 24th in the league. Washington ranks 11th in the NBA with their Net Efficiency Rating entering this season.
FINAL TAKE: Kyle Kuzma has been upgraded to probable after leaving Wednesday’s game with a wrist injury. The Wizards have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Washington Wizards (538) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-21 |
Blazers -5.5 v. Cavs |
|
104-107 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (501) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (502). THE SITUATION: Portland (3-4) suffered their second-straight upset loss on Monday in their 113-103 upset loss at Philadelphia as a 2-point favorite. Cleveland (4-4) has won four of their last six games after a 113-110 upset victory at Charlotte as a 5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland got upset on Sunday when they were beaten in Charlotte by a 125-113 score as a 2-point road favorite. The Blazers should respond to these wake-up calls tonight after allowing the 76ers to make 57.8% of their shots in their worst defensive game of the season. Portland has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after suffering two straight upset losses. The Trail Blazers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two in a row by double-digits. Additionally, Portland has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when playing their third game in four days on the road. And in their last 7 road games when favored, the Blazers have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. Cleveland made only 43.3% of their shots in their win against the Hornets — but that was still their best shooting mark in their last four games. The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. Now after being on the road since October 23rd, Cleveland returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Cavaliers are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home as an underdog. Cleveland is also 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Cavaliers are undermanned tonight with both Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Love in COVID quarantine. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Portland Trail Blazers (501) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-21 |
Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics |
Top |
116-107 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (537) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (538). THE SITUATION: Washington (2-1) won their first two games of the season before losing at Brooklyn by a 104-90 score on Monday as a 6-point underdog. Boston (2-2) has won two games in a row with their 140-129 win at Charlotte as a 1.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington only made 34.7% of their shots against the Nets which was their worst shooting effort of the young season. The Wizards have bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up loss. Washington has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games when playing with one day of rest. Led by Bradley Beal, the Wizards made the playoffs last season. And while he is no longer playing alongside a second superstar in Russell Westbrook, the haul Washington got back in trading him to the Lakers has given this team intriguing depth. The Wizards brought back Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell in the deal — and they also added Spencer Dinwiddie via free agency in the offseason. Washington stays on the road where they are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as an underdog. Boston made 49.5% of their shots on Monday to return to a .500 record — that was their best shooting effort of the season. But the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a double-digit victory. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 4 games after scoring at least 125 points, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread all 4 times. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games when playing with one day of rest. It is a new regime in Boston with Danny Ainge gone from the front office with Brad Stevens moving upstairs to replace him with Ime Udoka replacing him on the sideline. The rookie head coach has been shaky in his debut with some of his rotation decisions. They lost by 32 points in their first game at home this year. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. Boston has their big two in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown — but is there enough support? They traded their first-round pick to bring back Al Horford and they also signed Dennis Schroeder who was a locker room problem with the Lakers last year. This group remains a work in progress — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better.
FINAL TAKE: Washington will remember their 118-100 loss the last time they played the Celtics which was in Boston on May 18th when they were a small 1.5-point underdog. The Wizards remain 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Boston. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Washington Wizards (537) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-21 |
76ers v. Knicks -1 |
Top |
99-112 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (520) minus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia 76ers (519). THE SITUATION: New York (2-1) had their two-game winning streak to start the season end with a 110-104 upset loss at home to Orlando as a 12-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (2-1) has won two of their first three games with their 115-103 win at Oklahoma City as a 10-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: After making 48.6% and 50% of their shots in their first two games, New York only made 37.0% of their shots against the Magic. The Knicks should bounce-back tonight. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a point spread win. New York has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games when favored overall. They are also 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games when playing a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The 76ers continue to play under the shadow of the Ben Simmons drama — he is not playing for the team right now with him demanding a trade. The Sixers stay on the road where they are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 road games as an underdog. They are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 34 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 22 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month with the New York Knicks (520) minus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia 76ers (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-21 |
Suns +5 v. Bucks |
|
98-105 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (511) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (512) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-28) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 123-119 upset loss at home to Milwaukee as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Milwaukee (61-33) can win the NBA Championship tonight with their 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: We incorrectly had Phoenix on Saturday — it was another game where our side won the expected score but lost on the scoreboard. The deeper analytics that assesses shot quality projected that the Suns win Game Five 58% of the time. But Phoenix allowed Milwaukee to make 57.5% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 25 games. The Bucks’ 57.5% shooting from the field was the best shooting effort in their last 87 contests going all the way back to January 4th. It was the second-best offensive performance of the season. They nailed 14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc. I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods — especially with the pressure of closing out the series to win the title. These Game Sixes are tricky for a home team with a 3-2 series lead. While they have a bird in the hand on a potential seventh game, there often is stress and anxiety of feeling the urgency to end things in front of their home fans. The Bucks may win the title — and I have been frustrated with the critics who too quickly place blame on Mike Budenholzer despite it being his coaching and his timely adjustments (and patience with the things that got his team into this position) that has them on the precipice of the championship. But I do not think it is going to be easy for this Milwaukee team. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning three in a row. And while the Bucks have covered the point spread in the last three games in this series, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Phoenix made 13 of their 19 shots from behind the arc — but it was the variance from midrange shooting that made the difference in Game Five. The Suns should have scored five more points from their midrange shots given the shot quality data — and the Bucks should have scored 7 points less from the midrange given the shot quality data. Phoenix has bounced back to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after an upset loss. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a point spread loss. Now Phoenix goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Suns have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 40 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when motivated by triple revenge. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Phoenix Suns (511) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-21 |
Bucks v. Suns -3.5 |
|
123-119 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (510) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (509) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-27) has lost the last two games of this series after their 109-103 loss on the road to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (60-33) has won six of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Game Four was extremely frustrating. Phoenix led the game for just under 39 minutes. They were covering the point spread as the two-possession underdog for 47:40 minutes of the contest before they let the game slip away in the final 20 seconds. Chris Paul, perhaps one of the most overrated players in the league considering his historical reputation far exceeds his results in the postseason, too played the game with discipline one would expect in an exhibition contest. When Paul has his A-Game, he is fantastic. Too often, he drives the lane with reckless abandon before trying to attempt a Magic Johnson pass. In a game where he needed to show leadership through discipline in his actions, he played out of control. A hidden injury is not the reason why he is trying to do too much. He has 15 turnovers in the last three games because he is not playing with the composure of a veteran with deep playoff experience. And I make this selection fully aware that the expected points projections from shot quality indicate that Milwaukee should have won the last three games in this series. The Bucks may be the better team — I do not know. Frankly, I do not think either of these teams are very good, relative to recent NBA champions. Given that, I don’t think Milwaukee is good enough to outplay a quality team four times in a row — and I do expect Paul and this Suns team to play better back at home. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss by six points or less. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a point spread loss. Phoenix has made at least 48.2% of their shots in the last three games of the series — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games. Making shots has not been the problem for the Suns. Defensive rebounding and committing too many turnovers is what has gotten the Bucks back into this series. Returning home would help where they have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 52 games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Phoenix has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 21 home games when favored by six points or less. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 playoff games when favored — and they are 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Milwaukee has won and covered the point spread in the last two games in this series — but consistency has been an issue for head coach Mike Budenholzer’s team. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after winning two in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after allowing their opponent’s field goal percentage of 47% or higher in three straight games. Now Milwaukee goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as an underdog in the playoffs.
FINAK TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Phoenix Suns (510) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (509). Best of luck for us - Frank.
|
07-14-21 |
Suns +4.5 v. Bucks |
|
103-109 |
Loss |
-107 |
43 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (507) plus points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (508) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-26) looks to bounce back from their 120-100 loss on the road to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (59-33) has three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: The Suns scored their fewest points on Sunday in their last five games. After scoring 102 points in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers, they responded by scoring 130 to close out that series in Game Six. Chris Paul and Devin Booker combined to make only two of their 11 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. They should play better in Game Four. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. The Suns have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. Phoenix allowed the Bucks to make 47.8% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Suns have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. Furthermore, Phoenix is 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better overall. Milwaukee’s 47.8% field goal percentage was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. The Bucks have scored at least 105 points in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 51 games after scoring at least 105 points in four straight contests. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after playing a team from the Western Conference in three straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games when avenging a loss against their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Phoenix Suns (507) plus points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-21 |
Suns v. Bucks -4 |
Top |
100-120 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (506) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (505) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-33) returns home down 0-2 in this series after losing Game Two by a 118-108 score as a 4.5-point underdog on Thursday. Phoenix (65-25) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee only made 45.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Bucks made only 9 of their 31 shots from behind the arc. Now Milwaukee returns home where they are making 48.6% of their shots including 38.2% of their 3-point shots. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday struggled in Game Two as they combined to make only 12 of their 37 shots from the field. Both players — along with the Bucks’ role players — usually play better back on their home court. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two of their last three games. The Bucks have played four straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least four straight games Over the Total. Milwaukee returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 40 of their last 63 home games with the Total set in the 220s. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Phoenix made 48.9% of their shots in Game Two — but it was their nailing 20 of their 40 shots from behind the arc that really made the difference. The Suns have an effective field goal percentage of 57.3% in this series — and they are outperforming their expected effective field goal percentage of 53.2% in the first two games. The Regression Gods should make an appearance to level things out a bit. Phoenix has covered the point spread in three straight games going back to their Game Six win to close out the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And while Phoenix has played four straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least four straight Overs.
FINAL TAKE: I have seen some analytics that projected that Milwaukee should have won Game Two by a 116-104 score based on expected points from the shot quality of both teams. While I take that data with a grain of salt, we are going to win more of our bets than we lose in the long run when we are on the right side of that data. The Bucks are in this series — and they should have more of their shots fall (while seeing more of the Suns' shots not fall). Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 third games in an NBA playoff series under Mike Budenholzer. 25* NBA Sunday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (506) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-21 |
Bucks +5.5 v. Suns |
Top |
108-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (503) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-32) looks to bounce back from their 118-105 loss on the road to the Suns as a 5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (64-25) has won three of their last four games to take a 1-0 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: If there was a plus-side to Milwaukee’s 11-point loss, it was the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo who played 35 minutes and scored 20 points with 17 rebounds. The Bucks made only 45.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They also allowed Phoenix to make 46.6% of their shots, the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. Even worse, the Suns generated an Offensive Rating of 118.0 in that game which was the fourth-highest opponent’s Offensive Rating Milwaukee has allowed in this postseason. Mike Budenholzer is every pundit’s whipping boy for not making the adjustments they see (or not doing it quick enough) — but the benefit of a seven-game playoff series is to experiment with different defensive schemes. What the Bucks’ pick-and-roll defense places as their top priority is not foul — not only to protect Antetokounmpo to keep him on the court but to also not give up easy free throws. This consideration is rarely mentioned by the ankle-biters. Budenholzer may be content to let Chris Paul once again settle for mid-range jumpers — the shot that these same-ankle bitters consider the worst shot in basketball since it is not a 3-pointer nor a high-percentage shot at the rim. Or, Budenholzer may have defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday play against Paul rather than Devin Booker in Game One. Or, Budenholzer may go back to the drop defense against the pick-and-roll with Brook Lopez playing a little bit higher up the court to challenge the mid-range shot — this was very effective against Trae Young after Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals. I am not sure what Budenholzer will do while acknowledging that he is a far better defensive coach than me (and his critics). Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Milwaukee should commit fewer personal fouls tonight — the Suns got to the free-throw line 26 times and made 25 of those shots from the charity stripe. The Bucks’ opponent’s free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio of 16.3% is the lowest in the NBA. Phoenix generated a 29.6% FTA: FGA ratio in Game One — and they average 19 free throw attempts per game. The Suns will not likely have a +16 point edge from the free-throw line tonight. The Suns have played three straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after playing at least three straight Overs. Having Holiday defend Paul may be the preferred adjustment for Budenholzer since Booker’s play has declined a bit as the postseason has moved on. The young star is averaging 23.3 PPG on just 35% shooting from the field and a 22% mark from behind the arc in his last six games. He is averaging 4.3 turnovers per game during that span. Booker’s challenge in this series is heightened with him having to defend either Khris Middleton or Holiday. The season-ending torn ACL injury to Dario Saric leaves the Suns a man-short moving forward. Deandre Ayton cannot play 48 minutes. He will be subbed for either Torrey Craig or Frank Kaminsky, but both present problems for head coach Monty Williams. Craig has played 199 minutes in the playoffs with an On/Off Differential of -12.4. The Suns were outscored by 10 points when he was on the court for Game One. Kaminsky has only played 29 minutes in the playoffs while posting a -3.5 On/Off Differential. Phoenix outscored their opponents by +14.1 points per 100 possessions with Saric on the court this season. He will be missed.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 Games Twos in the NBA playoffs under Budenholzer. 25* NBA Thursday Night Special Feature with Milwaukee Bucks (503) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-21 |
Bucks v. Suns -5.5 |
Top |
105-118 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (502) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (63-25) comes off a 130-103 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite last Wednesday to win that series in six games. Milwaukee (58-31) has won two in a row and four of their last five after their 118-107 upset win in Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday to close out that series in six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix should build off their momentum rested and ready on their home court. The Suns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Phoenix is also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win by 10 or more points on the road. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after a double-digit win against a fellow Pacific Division rival. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with at least three days of rest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 50 games — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Suns have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 home games when favored by up to six points. Milwaukee may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo for this game although he has been upgraded to questionable with the knee injury that kept him out of the final two games of that series. The Bucks won both games without Antetokounmpo — but this team could be in for a letdown now. Getting only two days of rest against a team with three extra days to rest and recuperate does not help — and the league did them no favors by moving the start of this series up two days. As it is, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after winning two in a row. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. They are also 13-27-1 ATS in their last 41 playoff games as an underdog. And in their last 14 opening games to a new playoff series when playing on the road, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 19th in Milwaukee with Phoenix upsetting the Bucks, 128-127, as a 3-point underdog. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Tuesday Night Special Feature with the Phoenix Suns (502) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks |
Top |
118-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (51-38) looks to stave off elimination tonight after dropping Game Five in this series on the road against the Bucks by a 123-112 score as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Milwaukee (57-31) has won three of the last four games in this series to take a 3-2 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Trae Young is listed as questionable with the bone bruise in his foot — he is a game-time decision. I suspect he will try to play in this elimination game but expected him to be close to 100% is probably too optimistic. But his supporting cast should play better tonight. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in the last four games in this series, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 21 home games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games when favored. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been declared out for tonight’s game — so it will be Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday carrying the offensive load again tonight. They both had big offensive games — Middleton scored 26 points with 13 rebounds and eight assists and Holiday scored 25 points with 13 assists and six rebounds. Brook Lopez also had his best game in the series with 33 points on 14 of 18 shooting. It is unlikely these four players are as effective tonight — especially back on the road in Atlanta. The Bucks raced out to a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter by scoring 36 points. 28 of those points were in the paint with Milwaukee catching Atlanta too lax with their interior defense. The Hawks tightened up on defense after that. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after winning four of their last five contests. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the playoffs as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when playing at home and avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Hawks (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks -2.5 |
Top |
112-123 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (541) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-31) looks to bounce back from their 110-88 upset loss on the road against the Hawks as a 5.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Atlanta (51-37) had lost the previous two games in this series before Game Four.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a war of attrition between two flawed basketball teams now facing the challenge of adjusting to significant injuries. I waited for the early afternoon injury updates to make my final calls on this game. Giannis Antetokounmpo was declared out for tonight’s game at 1:30 PM ET with his sore left knee. Trae Young is questionable with the bone bruise in his right foot — he will be a game-time decision. Even if he plays, it remains a separate question as to how effective he will be if less than 100%. The injury updates are only half the news that interests me — how this impacts the line movement is the other important dynamic to consider. The line is stabilizing with the Bucks favored in the 3-point range — and I think they win this game comfortably by more than one scoring possession. The supporting cast for Milwaukee is better than the supporting cast of the Hawks. Frankly, Khris Middleton may be the team’s best player — or, at least, their most reliable player on the offensive end of the court. He only made 6 of 17 shots on Tuesday — including missing all seven of his 3-pointers — in scoring just 16 points. I’m not saying he is Michael Jordan circa 1993. I think the Bucks are a system team that is well-coached by Mike Budenholzer — and the ankle-biting critics of Budenholzer wildly overrate how good this team (and Antetokounmpo) is in the postseason. Simply put, Middleton and this Bucks team should play better at home — especially after their embarrassing effort on Tuesday. I still think they rally to win Game Four in the second half if not for the Antetokoumpo injury — he left in the third quarter when they had cut their halftime deficit to just 10 points. Milwaukee only made 39.3% of their shots in Game Four which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They only made 8 of their 30 shots (21%) of their shots from behind the arc. They should shoot better tonight — the Bucks shot 48.5% from the field on their home court with a 38.3% mark from behind the arc. Milwaukee should also tighten up on defense after allowing the Hawks to make 50.6% of their shots, the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Bucks have bounced back to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 63 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. Milwaukee has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score at least 90 points. The last three games in this series have finished Under the Total — and the Bucks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games after playing their last two games Under the Total. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. And Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games after winning two of their last three games. Atlanta’s secondary players stepped up knowing they would have to be at their best to compensate for the absence of Young. Their 50.6% shooting effort was their best performance in 10 games. And by holding the Bucks to a 39.3% field goal percentage, they played their best defensive game in their last 11. I suspect that a short-term boost cannot be sustained. And even if Young returns to the court tonight and is close to 100%, I suspect the Hawks to be flat tonight — even (or especially) against a team without Antetokounmpo. We see situations like this all the time in the regular season. As it is, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset win as a home underdog by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win as a home underdog by 20 or more points. The injury issues for the Hawks do not end with Young. Clint Capela is questionable with an eye injury. And while Bogan Bogdanovich had his best game in his last seven contests after injuring his right knee by scoring 20 points, he had not scored more than nine points in his previous six games — so he may experience some regression tonight.
FINAL TAKE: Just as the remaining Atlanta players stepped up on Tuesday, I expect the remaining Milwaukee players to play better tonight — especially after being such a disappointment in Game Four. Like the Hawks knew they would be without Young in that game, the Bucks know the onus is on them with Antetokounmpo declared out hours before game-time. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Game of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-21 |
Suns v. Clippers |
Top |
130-103 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (531) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (532) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (62-25) looks to bounce back from their 116-102 upset loss to the Clippers as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (57-33) still faces elimination tonight, trailing 3-2 in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Phoenix allowed the Clippers to make 54.8% of their shots in Game Five which was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. The Suns have only suffered back-to-back losses four times all season — so a better effort should be coming tonight. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by 10 or more points. They go back on the road where they have won five of their seven games in the postseason — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They should get more out of Deandre Ayton tonight after the big man only attempted nine shots on Monday. He had been averaging 20.3 Points-Per-Game in the first four games in this series while tallying at least 18 points and 13 shot attempts in all four games. The Suns are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the playoffs when favored. Los Angeles had their best shooting effort in their last five games with their 54.8% shooting percentage on Monday. But the Clippers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a double-digit win. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. We had the Clippers as an underdog in Game Five — but this remains a team dealing with more and more injuries. Losing Kawhi Leonard is very tough — and big man Ivica Zubac did not play due to a sprained MCL injury. He is questionable tonight. Paul George is carrying the team — but fatigue is becoming an issue. His 735 minutes played in the postseason are the most of any player in these playoffs. He logged in at least 40 minutes for the fourth straight time on Monday. Now Los Angeles returns home to the Staples Center where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when motivated by revenge. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (531) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-21 |
Bucks -6.5 v. Hawks |
|
88-110 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (521) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (522) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-30) took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 113-102 win as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (50-37) has lost the last two games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Hawks were cruising with a 95-88 lead with just 7:20 left in the game. But Atlanta would only score seven points the rest of the game with their offense almost completely drying up after Trae Young’s inopportune ankle injury after accidentally stepping on the foot of a referee. He is questionable to play tonight. While my best guess is that he tries to play, the mystery is how effective will he be? His game is dependent on his lateral movement. He only took four shots in the fourth quarter, making one, with just three points, and Milwaukee outscoring Atlanta by 15 points when he was on the court. He was merely a decoy in the waning minutes of the game — that speaks loudly. The Hawks are looking more and more like a M*A*S*H unit. They are already hampered by Bogdan Bogdanovic and his knee injury. After scoring 16.4 PPG with 5.9 Rebounds-Per-Game in the first nine playoff games this postseason, he has not scored more than nine points nor pulled down more than four rebounds in his last six playoff games. After making only 3 of 16 shots on Sunday, Bogdanovic has made only 7 of his 28 shot attempts in this series. The Hawks have already lost their best on-the-ball defender Deandre Hunter who was vital in defending Julius Randle in their opening-round series against New York. This team is on the rise — but they simply do not have the roster depth to survive all these injuries. Atlanta has averaged only 96.5 PPG in the last two games in this series. They have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 57 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Milwaukee is a flawed basketball team — but they have a system that works usually under head coach Mike Budenholzer and they consistently play outstanding defense. They have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 playoff games when leading in a playoff series — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 Game Fours in a series.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have a big edge in playoff experience against the Hawks — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings against them. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Bucks (521) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-21 |
Clippers +6 v. Suns |
|
116-102 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (511) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Five of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (56-33) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Four by an 84-80 score on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Phoenix (62-24) has won ten of their last eleven games to take the 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Clippers only made 32.5% of their shots on Sunday despite them scoring at 120.8 points per 100 possession clip in the playoffs. This has been a resilient team that has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a loss by six points or less. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in a decisive 45 of their last 67 games after a straight-up loss. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Phoenix only made 36.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 41 games. The Suns’ 84 points came after them scoring just 92 points in Game Three — so this looks to be more than just a bad shooting night. Devin Booker does not look comfortable wearing the face mask to protect his broken nose — and he may be tiring from the playoff grind in his first postseason as a professional. Chris Paul still looks rusty after being out with COVID. Cameron Payne is slowed with an ankle injury — he played only 20 minutes on Sunday and made only 2 of his 8 shots from the field. Phoenix only made 38.9% of their shots in Game Three — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not making at least 39% of their shots in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles added Ivica Zubac to their injury report this afternoon with a sprained right knee. Hopefully, he can still play — but the point spread is adjusting. If he cannot go, it likely means more playing time for Nicolas Batum who played an important role in the Dallas and Utah series. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss at home. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Clippers (511) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 |
Top |
113-102 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (502) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-36) looks to bounce back from their 125-91 loss to the Bucks as an 8-point underdog in Game Two on Friday. Milwaukee (55-30) has won three of their last four games and evened this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta allowed the Bucks to make 52.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games after a loss on the road. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Hawks started slow (or failed to thwart the inevitable fast start from Milwaukee after they lost home-court advantage in Game One) — after trailing by six points at the end of the first quarter, they were blitzed in the second quarter by a 43-17 margin to go into halftime by a 77-45 score. Atlanta has responded from a half-time deficit of 15 or more points by covering the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games next time out. Despite the lazy and tired reputation for never making adjustments, Bucks’ head coach Mike Budenholzer made yet another change in tactics in this game by having Brook Lopez confront Trae Young higher up the court on pick-and-roll switches. This took away Young’s floater game. The Hawks’ counter requires help from his teammates — but Young only had three assists. His nine turnovers were too many — but returning home should help where his teammates tend to shoot the basketball with more proficiency. Coaches become tactical geniuses or idiots often based on how often the shots finally fall. Atlanta shoots 46.4% from the field and makes 36.6% of their 3-pointers — and those numbers improve to a 47.1% mark along with a 38.7% clip from behind the arc when they are playing at home. Look for more from Kevin Huerter who scored only 21 combined points in the first two games of this series in Milwaukee. He poured in 44 points in the final two games in the Philadelphia series. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Milwaukee’s 52.1% shooting percentage was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win at home by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory by at least 30 points. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games on the road after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games after winning three of four. Now the Bucks go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 41 games with the Total set in the 220s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when avenging a loss of 30 or more points. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Year with the Atlanta Hawks (502) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-21 |
Suns -1 v. Clippers |
Top |
84-80 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
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At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (591) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (592) in Game Four of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-24) had their nine-game winning streak in the postseason snapped in a 106-92 upset loss on the road against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (56-32) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINT(S): Phoenix made only 38.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 40 games. Chris Paul returned to the court after completing his COVID quarantine but he was rusty by making only 5 of 19 shots. Devin Booker made only 5 of 21 shots while looking uncomfortable wearing the mask he will have to get comfortable with after breaking his nose in the last game. To compound matters, Cameron Payne suffered a left ankle sprain which limited him to just 4:19 minutes played. Phoenix should bounce back tonight. They have only lost back-to-back games four times this season. Paul will be better with another two days of work to get back into his routine. Booker will get used to the mask — this has rarely been a hindrance for superstars once they get acclimated to the appliance (Rip Hamilton liked it so much that he kept wearing it after his face injury healed when he was leading Detroit Pistons to a title in the 1990s). Payne is listed as probable to play tonight. The Suns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss. And while Phoenix has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. They are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when favored. Los Angeles played their best game on defense in their last 12 games by holding the Suns to just 38.9% shooting. But the Clippers are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a double-digit win. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win as a home dog. Despite the triumph in Game Three, there are too many cracks in the armor for this team in what is essentially in a pick ‘em situation tonight. Kawhi Leonard is not likely to play again this postseason. Paul George is carrying the load — but he is logging a ton of minutes. He leads all players in the postseason with 653 minutes played and he has been required to play at least 40 minutes in six of his last eight games. The canary in the coal mine may have been his six turnovers in the final 14 minutes of Game Three. Marcus Morris is playing hurt. DeMarcus Cousins is unplayable since he will get burned on the pick-and-roll. And the Clippers continue to have no answer for Deandre Ayton who is scoring 20.7 PPG on 73.8% shooting in this series. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when avenging a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (591) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (592). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-25-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 |
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91-125 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
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At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (582) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (581) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (54-30) looks to bounce back from their 116-113 upset loss to the Hawks in Game One of this series as an 8.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Atlanta (50-35) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee had a seven-point lead with four minutes to go and looked in position to win and cover the point spread in Game One. But the Bucks failed to close while getting beaten on the defensive glass with Atlanta pulling down five offensive rebounds which resulted in seven second-chance points. Milwaukee has no business getting beat on the glass against this Hawks team. The Bucks entered this series leading all teams in the postseason with a rebounding rate of 53.8% — and the Hawks’ 48.8% rebounding rate is the fourth-worst in the playoffs. Milwaukee allowed Atlanta to make 49.5% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Bucks should tighten things up on that end of the court tonight. Mike “Never Makes Adjustments” Budenholzer only played Brook Lopez for just eight minutes in the second half with him on the bench for the final 16 minutes of the game. Lopez was getting burned playing drop defense in the pick-and-roll against Trae Young who was torching him with floaters — but Budenholzer’s move to a small lineup with Antetokounmpo playing the five helped to limit Young to making just two of his eight floaters in the second half. Expect more smaller lineups from Budenholzer tonight. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Khris Middleton should play better tonight after making only 6 of 23 shots and missing all nine of his shots from downtown. The Bucks only made 8 of their 26 shots (30.8%) from 3-point range — they should improve on that tonight. They have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 62 home games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range — including eight of these last thirteen situations. Atlanta has pulled off two straight upsets after beating Philadelphia on the road in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Semifinals — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after upsetting their opponents in two straight games. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two in a row on the road. While Young carried Atlanta on Wednesday, Bogan Bogdanovich continues to struggle with his injured knee — he scored only four points on 1 of 6 shooting in just 27 minutes. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points including six of these last eight situations. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 road games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 Game Twos in a playoff series including five of their last seven. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Milwaukee Bucks (582) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (581). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-24-21 |
Suns -1 v. Clippers |
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92-106 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
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At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (571) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (572) in Game Three of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 104-103 victory as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (55-32) trails by an 0-2 mark in a playoff series for the third straight time this postseason.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINT(S): Phoenix is on a roll with nine straight victories in these playoffs — and now they get Chris Paul back to provide his court leadership and on-the-ball defense. The Suns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Phoenix won Game Two despite shooting 50% from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. In allowing the Clippers to make 45% of their shots, they played their worst defensive game in their last three contests. The Suns may have an insurmountable edge in Deandre Ayton who Los Angeles does not have an answer for down low. Ayton is averaging 22 PPG on 75.9% shooting while pulling down 11.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in this series. Only Ivica Zubac has come close to slowing down Ayton. DeMarcus Cousins has a -38.2 Net Rating when he is on the court in this series with the Suns scoring at 138.2 points per 100 possession rate. If Zubac gets into foul trouble, Los Angeles may not have a suitable alternative to Cousins. Phoenix goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. I just don’t like the position Los Angeles has put themselves in again. They had Kawhi Leonard for the previous two Game Threes.
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06-23-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks -7 |
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116-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
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At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (562) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (561) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (54-29) has won four of their last five games after rallying from a 3-2 deficit to defeat Brooklyn by a 115-111 score as a 2-point favorite in Game 7 on Saturday. Atlanta (49-35) has won three of their last four games after their 103-96 upset win at Philadelphia as a 4-point underdog in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee outlasted the Nets despite making only 43.9% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Bucks should build off their momentum from upsetting Brooklyn. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 220s — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. While there is a cottage industry of folks thinking they are better head coaches than Mike Budenholzer because he doesn’t make enough “adjustments”, the veteran head coach in his third Conference Finals does not get enough credit for his defensive tactics. The Bucks are holding their playoff opponents to 105.0 points per 100 possessions — and these opponents have just a 51.2% effective field percentage in the playoffs. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset win on the road in their last game. Now they stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games when an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 36 road games with the Total set in the 220s. The Hawks are dealing with injuries to open this series. Bogan Bogdanovich is a game-time-decision with the knee injury that limited him to only seven points in the last three games of that series. Kevin Huerter is probable but he is dealing with an ankle. And Atlanta is already without DeAndre Hunter for the rest of the season who would have drawn the defensive assignment to defend Khris Middleton.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta lacks deep playoff experience — and that may rear its ugly head when this team transitioning from a triumphant seven-game series on the road to the blank slate of an Eastern Conference Finals. Milwaukee has been knocking on the door to reach the NBA Finals for the last few seasons. Those experiences should help them comfortably pull away to win Game One. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Bucks (562) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-22-21 |
Clippers +5.5 v. Suns |
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103-104 |
Win
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100 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
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At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (551) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (552) in Game Two of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (55-31) looks to bounce-back from their 120-114 loss on the road against the Suns in Game One as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Phoenix (60-23) has won eight games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles had an off-day shooting on Sunday as they made only 45.5% of their shots from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last six games. They also allowed the Suns to make 55.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. Even without Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers should tighten up on defense tonight. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 120 points in their last contest. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road to a fellow Pacific Division rival. Paul George is proving he can lead this team without Leonard on the court. He is scoring 32.2 PPG in his last five games (one with Leonard) with 5.2 Assists-Per-Game, 8.2 Rebounds-Per-Game, and a 44.9% shooting mark from behind the arc. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games with the Total set at 120 or higher. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games when trailing in the series. Phoenix had their best shooting performance in their last 12 games with their 55.1% shooting clip on Sunday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. The Suns have now covered the point spread in eight straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in at least seven straight games. This is the game that this young Phoenix team may really miss Chris Paul who remains in COVID quarantine. While the team still has a playoff veteran in Jae Crowder on the court, most of the remaining players in the rotation lacked any playoff experience before this season. These Game Twos on your home court after winning Game One can be tricky — even wily vets can get up thinking they will cruise to a 2-0 series lead. Even without Leonard, this Clippers’ team is loaded with veterans with playoff experience.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 41 of their last 67 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Clippers (551) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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