Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-02-19 | Nets +4 v. Heat | Top | 88-117 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:35 EST). Brooklyn looks to make a quick rebound here after falling 123-112 at home to Charlotte just last night. Miami comes in off a 121-118 road loss to Houston and I think it’ll predictably falter here in its first game back in friendly confines after an extended Western swing. These teams have split a pair of games this year, with each winning on the others floor. The Nets are out of the playoff picture now, but not by much. Brooklyn needs to start finding its winning touch again quickly if it has any hope though. Overall the Nets average 112 PPG and they concede 112.5. D’Angelo Russell averages 25.9 PPG. After beating the Warriors, the Heat lost to the Rockets and I believe the team suffers another letdown here. Overall the Heat average only 105.7 PPG, while allowing 106.8. Miami is now just 3-7 SU in its last ten. The Heat are also only 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games, which doesn’t bode well facing a Nets side which is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing SU home record. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, let’s grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-01-19 | Clippers v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 116-109 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the (10*) Sacramento Kings (10:05 EST). The Clippers lost in Utah on Wednesday and I think they’ll stumble in this difficult road venue as well. The home side won’t be lacking for motivation here after back-to-back losses to the Bucks and Wolves. LA looked terrible in the loss to the Jazz, shooting just 39.4 percent from the floor overall, including going just 5 of 24 from range. Lou Williams was a bright spot off the bench with 18 points, two boards, six assists and two steals. The Kings have lost four straight close games, including a 141-140 setback to the Bucks most recently. Sacramento guard Buddy Hield had 32 points, six boards, three assist and three steals in the most recent setback. In what could be a potential playoff series preview, I think the “hungrier” home side pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-01-19 | Blazers +5 v. Raptors | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the (8*) Portland Trailblazers (8:05 EST). It wouldn’t be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these sides. The Blazers enter off a 97-92 road win over Boston on Wednesday and they’ve yet to lose away from friendly confines since the start of the second half of the season. At some point Portland is going to have a “letdown,” but clearly the team is on a mission right now and I don’t see the visitors going down without a fight tonight. Toronto destroyed Boston 118-95 at home on Tuesday. The Raptors had won six straight in this series before the Blazers won 128-122 at home on December 14th. I don’t put a lot of weight into ATS trends unless they’re completely lop-sided in nature, and that’s the case here, as note that the Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last five following a SU win, while the Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-01-19 | Wizards +9 v. Celtics | 96-107 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the (8*) Washington Wizards (8:05 EST). The Wizards are out to build off their 125-116 road win over the Nets on Wednesday. The Celtics continued their inconsistent season Wednesday with a poor 97-92 setback to the Blazers. Note that the Wizards play with revenge here after falling 130-125 in OT at home in the first matchup between the clubs back on December 12th. Washington sits only three games behind the Hornets for the final playoff spot and clearly the Wizards haven’t thrown in the towel yet, as evidenced by the full four quarter effort vs. the Nets. Bradley Beal led the way in that one with 31 points. Boston has in fact lost four in a row and chemistry and off court issues seem to be the problem. I think the home side is ripe for the picking here as it continues to struggle to find an identity. Kyrie Irving had 31 points in the most recent loss to the Raptors. I think these teams are moving in opposite directions now and while I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think that this one goes “down to the wire.” Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-28-19 | Jazz v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Den Nuggets at 10:35 ET. The 34-26 Utah Jazz won 111-105 last night in Salt Lake City over the Clippers and tonight visit Pepsi Center In Denver to take on the 42-18 Nuggets. Utah resides in sixth place in the West and this contest in Denver begins a stretch during which EIGHT of the team's next 13 games will be on the road. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are just one-half game behind first-place Golden State in the Western Conference and enter on a five-game overall winning streak in which the Nuggets have scored 120 or more points three times. Donovan Mitchell scored 32 points against the Clippers and has now recorded 20 or more points in 20 of his last 21 contests. That's hardly news, as the second-year SG averages a team-high 22.9 PPG (4.0 RPG & 4.0 APG, as well). Joining Mitchell in the starting lineup are PG Rubio (13.2 & 6.0 APG). center Gobert (15.4 & 12.9), swingman Ingles (11.8-3.8-5.0) and PF Favors (11.2 & 7.2). Coming off the bench are SF Crowder (12.1 & 4.8) and swingman Korver (9.1 PPG on 39.1% three-point shooting). All-Star center Nikola Jokic recorded 36 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds to narrowly miss his 13th triple-double of the season in Tuesday's home win over the Thunder. Jokic is averaging 20.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and 7.7 assists to lead Denver in all THREE categories. The Nuggets have played much of the season with key players sidelined but other than an ankle injury to forward Trey Lyles (9.2), Denver is now healthy. A remarkable NINE Denver players average between 7.0 and 18.1 PPG, which doesn't include Isaiah Thomas, who is averaging 11.3 PPG in 17 minutes in the last four games (his 1st action of the season). The homecourt edge has really meant something in this series, with host side winning and covering all SIX meetings since last season. Denver opened the season 6-0 at home but then lost THREE in a row from Nov 9-13. Since then, Denver is 21-1 SU at home, going 17-5 ATS. Why step in front of that 'train?' Not I. Good luck...Larry |
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02-27-19 | Pelicans v. Lakers -5 | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET. Anthony Davis will be on the floor against his possible future team when the 27-35 New Orleans Pelicans visit the 29-31 Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday. Davis requested a trade in late January but the Pelicans declined the offer from the Lakers and the perennial All-Star has been playing reduced minutes as New Orleans attempts to protect his trade value. In fact, Davis didn't play when the Lakers visited New Orleans on Saturday but the Pelicans still posted a 128-115 victory. Davis did play in the Pelicans' 111-110 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday (he had 18 points in 21 minutes), New Orleans' 12th loss in its last 18 games. The Lakers lost a 110-105 decision to the host Memphis Grizzlies on Monday, the team's SIXTH defeat in it last eight games. LBJ is concerned and said after the loss, "If you're distracted by playoff pushes, out of all the stuff that's been talked about this year -- just come and do your job, do our job at a high level. That's not a distraction. That's what you want. That's what you want every game. You want to feel like you're fighting for something." Davis was on the bench watching when New Orleans needed a last-second, game-winning shot on Monday and he said he is having a hard time staying in a good flow under the minutes' restriction. Davis and head coach Alvin Gentry have had a discussion about changing his substitution pattern to see if that would help a situation that is slated to last the remainder of the season. We'll see.Without Davis (27.6 & 12.6) on a regular basis, the Pelicans will be an enigma the rest of the season. Ex-Laker Julius Randle (20.1 & 9.0) is having an excellent season plus New Orleans does own a solid trio of guards in Holiday (21.0-5.1-7.9), Moore (12.2) and Payton (10.2 & 6.3 APG). James has become increasingly frustrated in recent weeks with the inconsistency of a club that is trying to halt a five-season playoff drought. He's averaging 26.8-8.8-7.8 on the season but two games under .500 is NOT where he expected his new team to be as February comes to a close. Forward Brandon Ingram (17.8 & 5.0) scored 32 points against Memphis for the second-highest output of his three-year career and is averaging 29.3 points over the last three contests. However, like so many of LA's players, he's inconsistent. Bullock was an "under the radar" addition for LA and he may be a gem, averaging 10.8 PPG in his five games with LA, connecting on 44.8% from three-point range on a team which shoots poorly from long-range (33.9% ranks 27th). LA has been a poor ATS team at home but with AD and the Pelicans visiting in this quick turnaround, LA is an excellent value! Good luck...Larry |
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02-27-19 | Blazers v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 97-92 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. The Boston Celtics have now lost FIVE of their last seven games, after Tuesday's 118-95 loss in Toronto (ended a winless three-game road trip). The struggling Celtics hope to begin a turnaround when they host the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday. The Blazers enter having reeled off four straight victories and led by 23 points at halftime before letting Cleveland back in the game but then finishing strong in Monday's 123-110 road win. 37-23 Portland currently holds down the West's No. 4 seed , two games up on No. 5 Houston but also just one game back of No. 3 OKC. Portland is led by the dynamic guard duo of Lillard (25.8-4.6-6.5) and McCollum (21.1 & 4.1) plus center Nurkic (15.4 & 10.2). Also, the recent addition of Kanter (14.3 & 7.7 in three games) can't be underestimated. Kyrie Irving had a miserable game for the Celtics with only seven points last night and head coach Brad Stevens ripped his club following the lackluster effort. "I thought we were all over the place defensively. We're taking too many shortcuts,” Stevens told reporters. "We have to be a lot more connected as a team. That’s been a theme for a while." Irving (23.5 & 6.9 APG) has been increasingly frustrated in recent weeks, and his response to a question about how to fix the defensive issues was a brief one - "That's up to Brad," he said of the coach. The Raptors were 17-for-36 from three-point range and built a 21-point halftime advantage as Boston allowed at least 109 points for the SIXTH time in seven games. The Blazers beat the Celtics 100-94 in Portland earlier this season (Nov 11) but they are just 7-12 as road dog on the season. The Celtics are 23-8 SU at home, outscoring opponents by 9.6 PPG (are 19-10 as a home favorite). This marks Boston's first home game at TD Garden since teh All Star break (actually Feb 13, which is TWO weeks ago!). Off last night's 'ugly' effort, expect a bounce back! Good luck...Larry |
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02-26-19 | Celtics v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. The Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors were expected to be among the top contenders in the Eastern Conference this season. The Raptors have lived up to expectations but as for the Celtics, not so much! 37-23 Boston visits Toronto on Tuesday night mired in fifth place in the East after losing FOUR of its past six games. Meanwhile, 44-17 Toronto sits No. 2 in the East and still have the first-place Milwaukee Bucks in their sights (Raptors trail the Bucks by just 2 1/2 games). Boston was humbled 126-116 by the 16-45 Bulls on Saturday in Chicago in its most recent game. "We just got outplayed in every which way," Celtics head coach Brad Stevens told reporters. "There are no two ways around it. You know, credit them obviously. Once they got rolling, there was no stopping them." PG Kyrie Irving (23.8 & 6.9 APG) has been frustrated with his team's play in recent weeks. He had 37 points and 10 assists against the Bulls but the Celtics still lost by 10. Small forward Gordon Hayward (11.1 & 4.6) seemed to be rounding into form in recent weeks but scored just five points in 24 minutes against Chicago, after missing one game with an ankle injury. Boston has a deep frontcourt, with SF Tatum (16.4 & 6.3) and swingman Brown (12.8 & 4.7) plus PF Morris (14.4 & 6.1) and PF/C Horford (13.1 & 6.9). Boston's D remains among the best in the NBA, allowing 106.8 PPG (5th) on 44.2% shooting (2nd). Toronto saw its seven-game winning streak end with a surprising 113-98 home loss to the Orlando Magic Toronto decided to rest Khawi Leonard () against the Mgic and the contest fell in between Friday's emotional game with the San Antonio Spurs -- Leonard's former team -- and the Celtics. So much for planning! The startling loss to Orlando dropped Toronto to 13-4 when playing without Leonard. PF/C Siakam (16.1 & 7.0) has been a huge surprise this season, while PF Ibaka (15.9 & 8.1) and PG Lowry (14.5-4.4-9.10 have contributed solid seasons. Ibaka scored 14 points off the bench to extend his career-long streak of consecutive games in double digits to 22. Expect trade deadline acquisition Marc Gasol (10.0 & 6.2 in five games) and Jeremy Lin (8.3 & 4.0 APG) to be valuable additions as the season winds down towards the playoffs. This is the fourth and final time the two teams meet in the regular season. The Celtics have won the two matchups in Boston, while the Raptors also protected home court with a 113-101 win on Oct 19. NOTHING changes here, as the home team wins and covers once again. Leonard returns and Toronto eliminates the 'bad taste' left by that home loss to the Magic, while reminding the Celtics that if they have to play in Toronto this postseason, they'll be in BIG trouble! Good luck...Larry |
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02-23-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -8 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the GS Warriors at 8:35 ET. James Harden is in sole possession of the second-longest 30-point scoring streak in NBA history at an astounding 32 games but his Houston Rockets lost 111-106 at teh Lakers in Houston's first game back from the break. Harden scored exactly 30 points before fouling out with 1:24 remaining on Thursday and watched from the bench as Houston finished squandering a 19-point lead in a 111-106 defeat at Staples Center. The Warriors returned from the break on Thursday as well, eking out a 125-123 win over the Sacramento Kings in Oakland. It's hardly been smooth sailing for Golden St this season but at 42-16, the Warriors own the West's best record and are within two games of Milwaukee for the NBA's best record, overall. Houston center Clint Capela (17.5 PPG and 12.5 RPG are career highs!) returned from a 15-game absence on Thursday (thumb), scoring 12 points and grabbing 11 rebounds in 33 minutes. However, the Rockets lost their second in a row and fell to 33-25, a full 12 games below where they stood at this point last season. Some analysts are grumbling about the club's style of play and reliance on Harden (36.5-6.7-7.7). Houston head coach Mike D'Antoni labeled such talk "absurd" before the Thursday game. "I don't know if they watched last year," he said of the naysayers. "Nobody else can do what he does. ... If you're a ball-stopper, usually you're inefficient. He's very efficient. So when the ball stops, it's a good thing."Is D'Antoni right? I'm NOT convinced. KD (27.6-7.0-5.9) was named the MVP of Sunday’s All-Star Game in Charlotte, and he showed off his skills at both ends of the floor in Thursday's win. He scored 28 points, grabbed nine rebounds and handed out four assists while matching a career high with seven blocked shots! Curry (28.8-5.1-5.3) added 36 points while going 10-of-16 from 3-point range, setting an NBA record with his fifth game this season with 10 or more made three-pointers. Golden St ranks 1st in scoring (118.9 PPG) and FG percentage (49.0), while ranking third in three-point percentage (38.4) and 4th in FT percentage (81.3). The Warriors have NOT been money-makers for awhile now but they almost will SURELY been heavily focused on Houston, which has already beaten them twice this season, including 135-134 in OT at Golden State on Jan 3. The Warriors have won 17 of their last 19 games and "put it all together" here vs the Rockets,. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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02-22-19 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 147-148 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the OKC Thunder at 9:35 ET. Both the Utah Jazz and the OKC Thunder return from the All Star break with both teams looking to make amends. The Jazz lost 115-108 at Golden St in their last game before the break, while the Thunder lost 131-122 at New Orleans in their last time on the court. The 32-25 Jazz currently own the West's 6th-seed but are only 2 1/2 games clear of the playoff 'cut line.' As for the Thunder, they have recovered from an 0-4 start to the season to go 37-16. The team's 37-20 record gives them the West's 3rd-best record and seem to be a huge favorite to enter the postseason with one of the West's top-four records (good enough for the homecourt edge in the first round). The Jazz return to the court after a 10-day break. They have won 13 of their last 16 games and as noted above, come out of the break sixth in the Western Conference. However, the good news is that they have one of the NBA's easiest schedules down the stretch, playing just eight of their final 25 games against teams that are above .500. Center Rudy Gobert didn't hide his disappointment at not making the NBA All-Star Game for the first time despite, averaging 15.2 points and 12.9 rebounds while leading the league in field-goal percentage (65.4). "Just recharge, completely -- mentally, physically," Gobert said. "For me, I was able to get a little bit of sun and feel a lot better when I get back. The next two months, I feel like, will be a lot better." He's surrounded by a backcourt led by Mitchell (22.4-3.9-4.0) and PG Rubio (13.0 & 6.1 APG). Up front, it's SF Ingles (11.7-3.8-4.9) and PF Favors (11.0 & 7.1). SF Crowder comes off the bench to average 11.8 & 4.7, while SG Korver adds 9.5 PPG on 39.8% shooting from three-point range. Defensively, the Jazz allow 105.9 PPG to rank 4t-best in the league. OKC was 11-1 SU (10-2 ATS) prior to the team's loss at New Orleans just before the break. PG Russell Westbrook (21.7-11.2-11.2) takes to the court looking to extend his record of 11 straight triple-doubles, a stretch in which he is averaging 21.1-13.3-13.5 (he owns 24 triple-doubles on the season).Paul George (28.7-8.0-4.10 is having an outstanding season and that duo gets significant help from four more players. Backup PG Schroder 915.7 & 4.1 APG) is the team's third-leading score with starters like center Adams (14.7 & 9.5), PF Grant (13.1 & 5.1) and SG Ferguson (6.8) completing the group. More help is on the way with recently signed forward Markieff Morris expected to make his team debut after missing the last eight weeks due to a neck injury. Morris averaged 11.5 points and 5.1 rebounds in 34 games for the Washington Wizards before the injury and said he is ready to play a role in helping Oklahoma City make a deep playoff run. I noted above that the Jazz have a VERY favorable schedule down the stretch. However, in stark contrast, the Thunder have one of the league's most challenging schedules moving forward. OKC plays 17 of its remaining 25 games against teams above .500 including each of the first five out of the break. That said, the Thunder are 2-0 against the Jazz this season and have won the past five regular-season matchups. What's more, the Thunder have won 15 straight regular-season home games against Jazz with Utah's last win in Oklahoma City being a 120-99 rout on Oct. 31, 2010. Lay the short price! Good luck...Larry |
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02-22-19 | Wizards v. Hornets -5 | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Cha Hornets at 7:05 ET. Charlotte hosted the All-Star festivities this past weekend during but the Hornets now return to the court in hopes of nailing down the franchise's first playoff appearance since the 2015-16 season. The 27-30 Hornets are currently in seventh place in the East coming out of the break and first up is the 24-34 Washington Wizards, one of the team's chasing them. The Hornets went 1-3 on a four-game road trip heading into the break and entered the long layoff with a sour taste after getting crushed 127-89 at Orlando on Feb 14. As for the Wizards, they are trying to turn their fortunes around as well, after dropping SEVEN of 10 heading into the break, capped by losses at Detroit and Toronto. Washington's pre-deadline deals sent away starters Markieff Morris and Otto Porter Jr, while bringing back forwards Wesley Johnson, Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis. It's not clear whether the Wizards are rebuilding or looking to fight for a playoff spot. That said, SG Bradley Beal isn't conflicted. "I'm locked in; I'm beyond locked in," Beal told reporters after the All-Star Game. "Hopefully my teammates will be the same way because we got a lot of games that we need. These games are imperative and important that we get them. I'm going to make sure that everybody's locked in. I feel good. My body feels good. We're going to hit the ground running." Beal is averaging 25.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.4 assists, while shooting 47.2 percent from the floor.SF Ariza has played well since joining the team from Phoenix awhile back, averaging 15.4-5.6-4.3 plus Portis (19.0 & 7.3) and Parker (12.2-7.5-5.3) have both contributed in their four games since coming from the Bulls. However, what should we make of Parker, who sandwiched a pair of 20-plus outings around a scoreless effort in his last three games. All-Star PG Kemba Walker (24.9-4.4-5.6) has carried a heavy load for Charlotte, as only SG Lamb (15.2 & 5.6) is a consistent scoring threat. However, the Hornets do have a deep roster, as EIGHT players chip in between 6.5 and 10.3 PPG. Charlotte will play seven of its next eight games at home, as it tries to hold off the likes of Detroit, Miami, Orlando and the Wizard. Western Conference powers Golden State and Houston will be part of this current homestand, so a win here vs Washington is a 'must!' This is the first of three games between Charlotte and Washington in a three-week span. They play again in Charlotte on March 8 and wrap up the four-game season series at Washington on March 15. Washington took the first meeting 130-126 at home back on Dec 29, despite 47 points from Walker. As noted, Charlotte almost has to consider this game a 'must win.' Charlotte is only 8-21 on the road but is 19-9 at home. The Wizards are 7-23 SU on the road (9-21 ATS), where they are allowing a whopping 119.7 PPG. Throw in that the Hornets have covered SEVEN of their last 10 at the Spectrum Center and are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 hosting Washington and the play HAS to be Charlotte. Good luck...Larry |
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02-21-19 | Heat v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi 76ers at 7:05 ET. Elton Brand was as solid NBA player but he's made quite a mark as Philly's GM here in the 2018-19 season. Brand made his second big move since the beginning of the year by adding PF Tobias Harris from the Clippers (at the trade deadline), after dealing for Jimmy Butler earlier in campaign. However, 37-21 Philadelphia would not have homecourt advantage in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs if the season ended at the All-Star break. The 76ers will try to continue to try to push their way up the standings when they return from the break by hosting the 26-30 Miami Heat on Thursday. The Heat are tied with the Detroit Pistons for the No. 8 spot in the East heading into the final stretch and are finishing off a six-game road trip that bridged the break. Miami opened its trip with a 118-108 win at Portland (Feb 5) but then dropped THREE in a row. However, the Heat closed out the Western Conference portion of their trip with a 112-101 victory at Dallas on Feb 13. After finishing up with Philadelphia, Miami will play 10 of its next 12 at home, including two games against the Pistons. Miami began to surge after former All-Star PG Goran Dragic went down and the team inserted SF Justise Winslow into the starting lineup and let him take over playmaking duties. Dragic (15.3 & 4.9 APG) is on the verge of returning from arthroscopic knee surgery. Is that good or bad news? Winslow (12.4-5.5-4.1) has been playing at the point with Wade (14.0-3.8-4.3) coming off the bench. SG Richardson (17.6) leads the team in scoring and center Hassan is a double-double 'machine,' averaging 12.8 & 12.4. Miami's D has been good all season, allowing 105.7 PPG on 44.3% shooting (both rank 3rd-best in the NBA). Philadelphia is third in the league in scoring (115.9 PPG) but 20th in points allowed (112.2). The 76ers recognize that they need to get better on that end of the floor to compete for the East title. "We know that offensively we are a top-power team," Tobias Harris told reporters. "We also know that if we become a top-power defensive team that's going to make us really tough to play against so that's how we've got to look at it." Harris has been an excellent addition, averaging 17.8 points on 51.9 percent shooting in four games since joining the team from the Los Angeles Clippers. Center Embiid (27.3 & 13.5) is an established All-Star plus the trio of Butler (18.8-5.0-3.8), Redick (18.6) and Simmons(16.8-9.0-7.9) give Philly quite the starting-five. Miami has been inconsistent all season, with only one win streak longer than two games. The Heat now look to complete this six-game road trip with a visit to Philly, a trip which began way back on Feb 5 (odd, to say the least). As for Philly, the 76ers have to be VERY anxious to get back on the court and get rid of the 'bad taste' left by their Feb 12 home loss to the Celtics (0-3 vs Boston this year!). Miami doesn't score much (ranks 27th at 105.1 PPG) and Philly averages a whopping 119.1 PPG at home. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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02-13-19 | Heat v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 112-101 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Dal Mavs at 8:35 ET. The Miami Heat have performed well away from home for much of the season. However, the Heat will conclude a five-game road trip prior to the All Star break with tonight's game in Dallas. Wins have been tough to come by on their current trip, against some of the best the Western Conference has to offer. Miami opened the trip with a 118-108 win at Portland (Feb 5) but has since dropped THREE in a row. One night after a valiant effort in a two-point loss at Golden State, Miami dropped a 103-87 decision at Denver on Monday, tumbling out of the top eight in the East with a 25-30 record. As for the 26-30 Mavericks, they traded four starters in an eight-day span. Second-leading scorer Harrison Barnes (17.7 & 4.2) was the last to go, when Dallas shipped him to the Sacramento Kings for fellow forwards Justin Jackson and Zach Randolph. Prior to that, the Mavs traded PG Dennis Smith Jr. (12.9 & 4.3 APG), SG Wesley Matthews (13.1) and center DeAndre Jordan (11.0 & 13.7) to the New York Knicks. That left star rookie Luka Doncic as the lone remaining starter.The Mavs had won SIX of nine but their last time out, lost 120-104 to James Harden ("just" 31 points!) and the Houston Rockets on Monday. Center Hassan Whiteside entered Denver averaging 17.8 points and 14.6 rebounds during a streak of five straight double-doubles but he was held to six and eight, respectively, against the Nuggets' big men. The 29-year-old Whiteside (12.9 & 12.5) averages 14.1 points, 13.9 rebounds and 2.5 blocks at home, where Miami plays 10 of 12 games soon after the All-Star break. With PG Dragic and his 15.3 PPG and 4.9 APG sidelined, Winslow (12.4-5.3-4.1) has been playing at the point with Wade (13.8-3.8-4.4) coming off the bench. SG Richardson (17.6) leads the team in scoring. Miami's D has been good all season, allowing 105.7 PPG on 44.4% shooting (both rank 3rd-best in the NBA). Rookie Luka Doncic (20.8-7.1-5.5) had 21 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists for Dallas in the road loss at Houston. Doncic is likely looking forward to the break, after playing all 12 minutes of the fourth quarter in Sunday's win over Portland and then carrying Dallas through 36 minutes in the loss to Houston. I expect that both Hardway (14.5 PPG in his four games with Dallas) and Burke (8.5 in the same span), will get plenty of "PT" here in Dallas. Also, expect forwards Powell (8.7 & 4.4) and Finney-Smith (7.9 & 4.7) to see increased minutes and offer increased production after the trades. In fact, Powell is shooting 62.3 percent from the floor over his last 10-games. Miami opened this trip with an upset of Portland and sat 14-11 SU (16-9 ATS) on the road at that time. However, the Heat are 0-3 over the previous seven days. This is the final contest of a five-game, nine-day road trip and Dallas is 20-8 SU (19-8-1 ATS) at American Airlines Center this season. Doncic will surely be looking forward to a rest with the All Star break coming (that said, he has to be a little miffed he's not playing in it) but 19-year-old isn't showing any signs of slowing down on the stat sheet. He's averaging 24.6 points, 8.6 rebounds and 6.6 assists in five games in Feb. Mavs roll. Good luck...Larry |
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02-12-19 | Jazz v. Warriors -8.5 | 108-115 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 54 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the GS Warriors at 10:35 ET. The Golden State Warriors have scored at least 100 points in 26 consecutive games, the franchise's best run since a 36-game streak during the 2016-17 campaign. At 40-15, the Warriors will look for their 16th victory in their last 17 games when they host the Utah Jazz on Tuesday. However, in the 32-24 Utah Jazz, Golden State will face a team which is almost as hot. The Jazz visit Oakland having won 14 of their last 18 games, after an impressive 125-105 home win over the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday. Center Rudy Gobert had 21 points on 8-of-10 shooting and collected 13 rebounds against San Antonio for his fourth straight double-double (14th in his last 16). The reigning NBA Defensive of the Year is viewed as one of the biggest snubs for the All-Star Game, as he's averaging 15.2 & 12.8. All-Star shooting guard Donovan Mitchell (22.4-3.8-4.0) scored 23 points against the Spurs and has topped 20 in 16 of the last 17 games, averaging 27.2 points during the stretch. PG Rubio (12.9 & 6.1 APG) is back healthy and the above three are joined in the starting lineup by SF Ingles (11.8-3.8-5.0) and PF Favors (11.0 & 71.). Coming off the bench are Crowder (11.9 & 4.8) and Korver (9.6 & 40.2% on threes). Utah is one of the league's best defensive teams, allowing 105.8 PPG (4th). The Warriors rallied from 19 points down to edge the Miami Heat 120-118 at home on Sunday night. It was the second straight game in which the Warriors won after trailing by at least 17 points. They overcame a 17-point deficit to win at Phoenix on Friday. The Warriors have won FIVE times this season after falling behind by at least 15 points, including Oct 19 at Utah, when Golden State rallied from 16 points back to prevail 124-123 on a buzzer-beating tip-in by Jonas Jerebko. Forward Kevin Durant (39 points on Sunday) and guards Klay Thompson (29) and Stephen Curry (25) have each scored 25 or more points in 12 straight games after the club rallied from a 19-point deficit to record a hard-fought 120-118 home win over the Miami Heat. DeMarcus Cousins (14.1 & 6.5 in his 10 games / eight starts) made the decisive two free throws with 5.4 seconds left against the Heat and coach Steve Kerr said he is impressed with the effect the big man has had on the squad since returning from an Achilles injury. "He's basically single-handedly negated the dog days, he really has," Kerr told reporters. "DeMarcus has come in and energized our team. ... He's just bringing this excitement and energy every game and he's getting better and better and fitting right in with the group." With Cousins now healthy enough to play, Golden State's starting-five is quite scary. The Warriors rank first in scoring (119.1 PPG) and FG percentage (49.3), while ranking third in three-point percentage (38.6) and free-throw percentage (81.4). The Warriors have yet to lose (8-0) since Cousins joined Draymond Green, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry in the starting lineup. Don't expect the Warriors to fall behind early in this one, as no comeback will be needed in a likely wire-to-wire win 'Good luck...Larry |
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02-12-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -124 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi 76ers at 8:05 ET. Elton Brand was as solid NBA player but he's made quite a mark as Philly's GM here in the 2018-19 season. Brand made his second big move since the beginning of the year by adding PF Tobias Harris from the Clippers, after dealing for Jimmy Butler earlier in campaign. Both moves were made to ostensibly to get Philly over the hump vs.new/old nemesis Boston. The Philadelphia 76ers are sure playing like a team that is headed in the right direction, as they are coming off impressive wins over the Denver Nuggets (117-110) and Los Angeles Lakers (143-120) since making a series of deadline moves. The Boston Celtics failed to make any upgrades prior to the deadline and are looking like a team that could have used a shake-up. The Celtics lost 129-128 on a buzzer-beater to the Los Angeles Lakers at home on Thursday and then blew a 28-point lead before falling to the Los Angeles Clippers 123-112 on Saturday in a demoralizing defeat. Boston's Saturday's collapse began late in the first half, after All-Star guard Kyrie Irving suffered a sprained knee that will leave him on the sidelines Tuesday and potentially Wednesday against Detroit at home. Gordon Hayward (10.2 & 4.6) had a team-high 19 points off the bench but Irving's fellow starters combined to shooting 14-for-42 (33.3%) from the floor without their leader. Hayward comes off the bench along with Brown (12.7 & 4.3), while Tatum (16.4 & 6.3) and Morris (14.6 & 6.) typically start up front with Horford (12.4 & 6.6). With Irving sidelined, expect Rozier (9.1) and Smart (8.2) to start in the backcourt. Joel Embiid (27.4 & 13.5) went off for 37 points and 14 rebounds in Sunday's 143-120 rout of the Lakers, as 36-20 Philadelphia moved one game ahead of Boston (35-21) for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. Embiid was 12-for-16 from the floor in Sunday's win, while newly acquired forward Tobias Harris had 22 points on 9-of-14 in his second game with the team. Harris was averaging career highs of 20.9 & 7.9 with LA and has averaged 18.0 & 7.0 in his two games with the Sixers. Rounding out Philly's starting-five is Butler (18.9 & 4.9), Redick (18.7) and PG/swingman Ben Simmons (16.7-9.2-7.9). Philly's starting-five may not quite measure up to Golden State's (which team's does?) but it's clearly the East's top unit. I'm not sure Boston can 'hang' with Philly here, without Irving's 23.6 PPG and 6.9 APG. The 76ers are 23-6 at home, averaging a whopping 119.4 PPG. Sans Kyrie, Boston gets rolled, as Philly avenges the Celtics' two home wins (105-87 & 121-114 in OT) over the 76ers earlier this year. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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02-11-19 | Heat v. Nuggets -10.5 | Top | 87-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
My 3rd play of Monday's STP is an 8* on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. The Denver Nuggets 'limp' home after losing the final three games of their four-game road trip. 37-18 Denver will be looking to avoid matching a season-high four-game losing streak Monday night, when the Nuggets welcome the 25-29 Miami Heat to Pepsi Center. The Nuggets allowed an average of 132 points in two straight losses, before giving Philadelphia all it could handle in a 117-110 loss on Friday. Denver now begins a stretch in which the Nuggets play six of seven at home, where they are an NBA-best 23-4. Miami visits the Mile High City after rallying from nine down in the fourth quarter to take a three-point lead with less than a minute to go, surrender the final five of the game in a 120-118 loss at Golden St (the Warriors own a 40-15 record, best in the West). Josh Richardson (Miami's leading scorer at 17.8 PPG) poured in 37 points but the Heat lost for the fifth time in six games, dropping into a tie with Detroit for eighth place in the Eastern Conference. Richardson is averaging 25.3 points over the last three contests and backcourt mate Dion Waiters (9.2) stepped up to score a season-high 24 on Sunday. Center Hassan Whiteside recorded his fifth straight double-double Sunday and is averaging 17.8 points along with 14.2 rebounds during that stretch (he's averaging 13.1 & 12.6 on the season). Veteran Dwyane Wade (13.9-3.9-4.4) scored 10 points and has averaged 17.0 PPG over his last four contests. Small forward Justise Winslow had 22 points on 8-of-16 shooting against Golden State but has mostly been playing in the backcourt with PG Dragic (15.3 & 4.9 APG) sidelined. Winslow is averaging 12.3-5.4-4.2 on the season. Denver head coach Michael Malone told reporters his players could hold their heads high after Friday’s effort but guard Will Barton (12.3-4.4-3.4) said it is time to get back to business as the Nuggets’ lead over Oklahoma City for second in the West has shrunk to one game. Center Nikola Jokic continues to put up big numbers, recording triple-doubles in five of the last eight games. He leads Denver in scoring (20.4), rebounding (10.5) and assists (7.7). PG Jamal Murray (18.6-4.3-5.0) has averaged 21 points and 8.5 assists in two contests since returning from a six-game absence because of an ankle injury, while fellow guard Malik Beasley (11.6) is averaging 20.7 points over his past six outings. However, SG Gary Harris (14.8) is expected to miss his sixth straight game, while PF Paul Millsap (12.0 & 6.5) could sit out a fourth straight with an ankle injury. Injuries are nothing new to Denver this season, yet as noted earlier, the Nuggets own the NBA's best home record (23-4 SU), averaging 116.5 PPG and winning by an average of 12 points per game. Miami has been a solid road underdog the last two seasons but the Heat are coming off a heart-breaking loss last night in Oakland and will be playing their third game in four days on the road. That's is NOT a recipe for success. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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02-11-19 | Mavs v. Rockets -10 | 104-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My 2nd play of Monday's STP is an 8* on the Hou Rockets at 8:05 ET. James Harden continued his phenomenal scoring run with 42 points in Saturday's 117-112 loss to Oklahoma City, leaving him two 30-point games away from tying Wilt Chamberlain for the second-longest such streak in NBA history. However, the Rockets collapsed against the Thunder in the second half, allowing OKC to overcome a 26-point deficit. "We have to be consistent for four quarters," Harden told reporters Saturday after his team fell to 19-9 at home and 32-23 on the season. The Dallas Mavericks traded four starters in eight days. Second-leading scorer Harrison Barnes (17.7 & 4.2) was shipped to the Sacramento Kings for fellow forwards Justin Jackson and Zach Randolph. Priort to that, the Mavs traded PG Dennis Smith Jr. (12.9 & 4.3 APG), SG Wesley Matthews (13.1) and center DeAndre Jordan (11.0 & 13.7) to the New York Knicks. That leaves star rookie Luka Doncic as the lone remaining starter. Doncic (20.8-7.0-5.5) played the entire fourth quarter Sunday and scored 13 points while helping Dallas keep Portland from putting up a single point for nearly seven minutes during one stretch. The Mavs' furious rally gave them a 102-101 home win over the Blazers. Docic had 28 points and the recently acquired Tim Hardaway added 24, as the Mavericks held the Trail Blazers to just nine fourth-quarter points. Dallas has won six of nine and sits 26-29 on teh season. The Huston Rockets have just not been to replicate the defensive prowess that secured their run to the best record in the league last season and to Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. Whether due to injuries or roster construction, the results haven't been the same. Houston is allowing 111.0 PPG (14th) on 47.5% shooting (26th). After finishing seventh in defensive rating last season at 105.5 points allowed per 100 possessions, the Rockets are 25th this season (112.0). Since Jan 1, Houston is a modest 11-8 and its leaky defense (113.8 rating) is directly attributed to its inability to build a winning streak and propel up the standings. Houston limited Oklahoma City to 75 combined points in the first, second, and fourth periods but the Thunder posted a whopping 42 points in the third, to erase what was once a 26-point deficit. The Thunder they won the fourth quarter by five points to claim the victory. However, let's not dismiss Houston too quickly. Harden (36.6-6.7-7.8) is having an amazing season, Chris Paul (15.6 & 7.9 APG) is rounding into form after another injury setback plus Kenneth Faried is quietly working on an impressive streak of his own with four straight double-doubles. He shot 8-of-11 from the floor in the loss to the Thunder and is hitting 63 percent of his shots in 10 games since joining Houston last month, averaging a double-double (16.2 & 10.4). Dallas is a surprising 2-0 vs Houston this season and off the team's Saturday collapse to OKC, I expect Houston to be "on its game" in this one. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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02-11-19 | Wizards v. Pistons -4 | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My 1st play of Monday's STP is a 9* on the Det Pistons at 7:05 ET. Are the Detroit Pistons starting to pick up some momentum as they try to rejoin the race for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Friday's120-103 win over the New York Knicks on Friday moved the Pistons to 25-29, pushing their winning streak to three in a row. Detroit welcomes the Wizards to town Monday, just a half-game behind the Miami Heat for the No. 8 spot in the East . The 24-32 Washington Wizards sit two games behind the Pistons and enter this contest off back-to-back wins, after Saturday's 134-125 win over the Bulls. Washington brought in forwards Bobby Portis (14.1 & 7.3 in 22 games with the Bulls) and Jabari Parker (14.3 & 6.2) from Chicago prior to the deadline. Parker fell out of the Chicago rotation before being dealt but is being given a prominent spot with Washington. He had 20 points, five rebounds and six assists in 35 minutes against his former team. Meanwhile, power forward Bobby Portis is averaging 20 points, 9.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists in two wins since the trade. Bradley Beal has stepped up big time since Wall was lost for the season and checks in averaging 25.0-5.1-5.2. Trevor Ariza has also been a great addition, averaging 14.9-5.4-4.2 in 26 games with the Wizards. Detroit bolstered its rotation by signing veteran shooting guard Wayne Ellington as a free agent, after he cleared waivers on Saturday. He expects to take the minutes that opened when starting shooting guard Reggie Bullock was shipped to the Los Angeles Lakers in front of the trade deadline. Detroit has leaned on All-Star forward Blake Griffin (26.1-8.1-5.3) heavily for most of the season. Center Andre Drummond collected 29 points on 12-of-15 shooting along with 20 rebounds in Friday's win and has been an excellent 'second banana' all season, averaging 17.1 & 14.9. The home team has won and covered both meetings this season between Washington and Detroit and I see no change here. Washington is just 7-21 SU away from home this season, going 8-20 ATS. Detroit comes into this contest winning three in a row by an average of by an average of 18.7 points. Detroit didn’t make a huge splash at the deadline, but acquiring C/F Thon Maker from Milwaukee helps shore up the frontcourt bench. The Pistons have played better defense recently, holding their last 11 opponents to an average of 100.9 PPG, compared to 107.8 on the season. Another bonus for Detroit in this one is the fact that the Pistons have been able to keep Griifin under 30 minutes in two of the last three contests. Home team wins and COVERS! Good luck...Larry |
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02-10-19 | Magic v. Hawks +2.5 | Top | 124-108 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Atl Hawks at 7:35 ET. The Orlando Magic opened their three-game road trip in impressive fashion on Saturday, continuing a sudden surge back into the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Magic took advantage of the absence of Milwaukee superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) to coast past the Bucks 103-83 on Saturday, improving to 4-1 on the heels of a 3-11 swoon. Orlando sits at 24-32, " 2 1/2-games out of teh East's final playoff spot. Atlanta's league-worst defense (more later) was on full display in Saturday's loss, as Charlotte shot 54.5 percent and recorded 30 assists on 48 baskets in a 129-120 loss. The Hawks are 18-37 and are hardly thinking postseason as the All Star break looms. Rookie Isaiah Briscoe hit all three of his shot attempts in Thursday's win over Minnesota and was 4-for-5 from the floor while handing out seven assists in the rout of the Bucks. "By far, his best game. Both ways, and he hit his jumper," head coach Steve Clifford said of the 22-year-old guard. Orlando's 7-0 All-Star center, Nikola Vucevic, added 15 points and 17 rebounds. Vucevic (20.5 & 12.0) and 6-9 PF Gordon (15.9 & 7.4) are Orlando's top-two producers, although Clifford has a solid three-guard rotation. That group includes Fournier (14.8), Ross (14.7) and PG Augustin (11.5 & 4.7 APG). The Hawks have opened a seven-game homestand by dropping the first two contests. They allowed 46 first-quarter points to Charlotte and fell short with a late rally in Saturday's nine-point loss. The 6-10 John Collins led the way offensively with 21 points on 8-of-12 shooting. That's not exactly new, as the second-year 6-10 forward averages team highs of 19.4 PPG and 9.9 RPG. Rookie PG Trae young checks in at 16.9 PPG and 7.5 APG plus FIVE more players average in double digits (two more check in at 8.3 & 9.4). Scoring is NOT Atlanta's problem. It's a defense that allows 118.4 PPG (30 of 30 teams) on 47.7% shooting (28th). However, with Orlando coming off a win at Milwaukee, a team with the NBA's best record, the Magic are in a perfect spot for a letdown. Note that Orlando looks to win its third straight overall contest, for the FIRST time since mid-November. NOT! Good luck...Larry |
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02-09-19 | Thunder v. Rockets -1.5 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Hou Rockets at 8:35 ET. The Oklahoma City Thunder (35-19) visit the Houston Rockets (32-22) on Saturday night, with the ABC cameras on hand. James Harden extended his streak of 30-point games to 28 with 36 points in a 127-101 victory at Sacramento on Wednesday, pulling within three games of tying Chamberlain for the second-longest streak in NBA history at 31 (note: Wilt's record 65-game streak is likely NOT in danger!). Coming to town with OKC is Russell Westbrook and he brings along a streak of eight consecutive triple-doubles, after going for 15-13-15 in Thursday's 117-95 win over the Memphis Grizzlies. That moved him past Michael Jordan and within one of tying the mark of nine straight set by Chamberlain in 1968 (that Wilt guy keeps popping up). The Thunder currently occupy the No. 3 seed in the West, three games ahead of the 5th-seed Rockets (Portland sandwiched in between, one up on Houston and two back of OKC). Westbrook (21.2-11.1-11.2) is averaging a triple-double for the third straight season and leads the NBA in assists, nearly two more than the next-closest player (Toronto's Kyle Lowry is at 9.3). However, Paul George is OKC's top scorer, averaging 28.0 PPG. Backup PG Schroder averages 15.7 & 4.2 APG, starting center Adams 15.2 & 9.7) and PF Grant 13.2 & 5.0. No other OKC player averages as much as 7.0 PPG. The Rockets were active at the trade deadline, acquiring guard Iman Shumpert from the Sacramento Kings while jettisoning James Ennis III (to the Philadelphia 76ers), Marquese Chriss and Brandon Knight (both to the Cleveland Cavaliers) to free roster spots in order to aggressively pursue additions via what should be a robust buyout market. Those moves completed the exodus of the five players the Rockets adding during the past offseason, with Carmelo Anthony and Michael Carter-Williams traded earlier this season. The constant has been Harden, averaging 36.5-6.8-7.9. PG Chris Paul (15.5 & 7.9 APG) is back but center Clint Capela (17.6 & 12.6) is still out. However, he is expected to return after the All-Star break. Can't imagine Harden NOT be primed for this showdown with Westbrook and he's carried Houston since Paul first went out (now back) plus kept it going through Capela's absence, as well. A HUGE bonus has been getting Kenneth Faried (from Boston), as the 6-8 vet has averaged 16.1 & 10.2 in nine games. Houston is 15-3 SU at home since Dec 1 and that has me "all over" the Rockets in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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02-08-19 | Heat v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Sac Kings at 10:05 ET. The Sacramento Kings won just 27 games ALL of last season and last produced a winning record back in the 2005-06 season. However, the 28-26 Kings proved that they have EVERY intention of ending their 12-year playoff drought with the acquisition of Harrison Barnes. The Kings acquired the 6-8 forward from the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night in exchange for forwards Justin Jackson and Zach Randolph (no big loss, there). Sacramento welcomes the Miami Heat to town tonight, having gone 3-1 on what will be a six-game homestand (note: Kings were routed 127-101 by the Houston Rockets on Wednesday). The 25-27 Heat also made some moves. acquiring forward Ryan Anderson from the Phoenix Suns for guards Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington. The Heat opened their six-game road trip with an impressive 118-108 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday. Center Hassan Whiteside led Miami with 28 points and 11 rebounds, as he's headed to yet another double-double season (13.0 & 12.4). By moving Johnson (10.8) and Ellington (8.4) the Heat have unclogged their guard rotation, which still includes starters Josh Richardson (17.3) and Justise Winslow (backups 12.3 & 5.7) plus reserves Dwyane Wade (14.0), Rodney McGruder (8.7) and even Dion Waiters (7.9 PPG but just 14 games played). Goran Dragic (15.3 & 4.9 APG), an All-Star point guard in 2017, is on injured reserve (return up in the air). Buddy Hield, the key player in the Boogie Cousins trade, leads Sacramento in averaging 20.4 PPG, while shooting a white-hot 45.5% on threes. Second-year PG Fox (17.3 & 7.2 APG) is looking like a future All-Star as well. Also, Bogdanovich (14.8) and center Cauley-Stein (12.9 & 8.6) have become regular contributors.Not to be forgotten is rookie forward Marvin Bagley III (13.1 & 7.0), who has recorded four straight double-doubles, as the No. 2 overall selection from Duke, is averaging 16.3 points and 11.8 rebounds over the past four games, while scoring in double digits in seven straight outings (also 12 of his last 13 since returning from an injury). The addition of Barnes (17.7 & 4.2 TY with Dallas) will be huge, as he had also averaged 18.9 & 6.1 and 19.2 & 5.0 his first two full seasons with the Mavs. I am aware that the Heat are dangerous as road underdogs (52-25-2 ATS in that role the L3 seasons) but the Kings are 19-9 ATS at home this season. What's more, the Kings are on an 8-1 ATS run at home (7-1 SU in the last eight) and have covered 10 of their last 12 when installed as a favorite at Golden 1 Center going back to last season. The Kings have won the last three meetings with the Heat, including a 123-113 win in Miami back on Oct 29.make that FOUR in a row and a covers as well. Good luck...Larry |
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02-08-19 | Bucks v. Mavs +8 | 122-107 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Dal Mavericks at 8:35 ET. The Dallas Mavericks traded four starters in the past eight days! The latest move saw the Mavericks trade second-leading scorer Harrison Barnes (17.7 & 4.2) to the Sacramento Kings for fellow forwards Justin Jackson and Zach Randolph. Earler, the Mavs traded PG Dennis Smith Jr. (12.9 & 4.3 APG), SG Wesley Matthews (13.1) and center DeAndre Jordan (11.0 & 13.7) to the New York Knicks. That leaves star rookie Luka Doncic as the lone remaining starter. "With this trade now, a lot of things are in play," Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle told reporters. "Everything is going to bump a little here and a little there. I have to let the dust settle and figure out who the hell is going to start." The 40-13 Bucks own the NBA's best record and come to Dallas having won five straight games to become the first NBA team to reach 40 wins this season. Milwaukee picked up some bench help at the deadline by acquiring forward Nikola Mirotic from the New Orleans Pelicans for forwards Stanley Johnson and Jason Smith and four second-round draft picks. Milwaukee is coming off a 148-129 home win over the Washington Wizards on Wednesday, a contest in which it scored 50 first-quarter points and led 85-65 at halftime en route to its highest-scoring effort of the season. Milwaukee acquired Johnson earlier in the week from the Detroit Pistons and flipped him to New Orleans to land Mirotic, who is averaging 16.7 points and 8.3 rebounds in 32 games this season. Mirotic missed his final seven games with the Pelicans due to a calf injury and a return date isn't yet set. However, the Bucks are interested in making a long playoff run and Mirotic will help Milwaukee's starting-five is terrific, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo (27.0-12.4-5.9). He's joined by SF Middleton (17.3-5.7-4.2), guards Bledsoe (15.9-4.5-5.6) and Brogdon (15.7-4.7-3.3) plus center Lopez (12.2 & 4.1). However, no other palyer averages as much a 7.0 PPG. Injured forward Kristaps Porzingis was the prize of the Mavs' trade with teh Knicks but he isn't slated to play this season as he continues his recovery from an ACL tear. The three guards Dallas got were Tim Hardaway Jr, (19.1 PPG this year is a career-best), Trey Burke (11.8) and Courtney Lee (played just 12 games with NY but has averaged 9.9 in his career). Expect Hardaway to get plenty of time alongside Doncic, who leads the team in scoring (20.6), rebounding (7.1) and assists (5.5). Getting more time with Barnes and Jordan gone will be the 6-11 Powell (8.5 & 4.2) and the 6-8 Finney-Smith (7.8 & 4.7). Through all the trade rumors and actual trades, Rick Carlisle continues to do a great job keeping his team competitive. The Mavs won only 24 games last season but enters this game 25-28. The Mavs enter on a EIGHT-game winning ATS stretch. How does won ignore the fact that Dallas is an amazing 9-1 as a home dog this, while the Bucks are around 50-50 as a road favorite. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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02-08-19 | Nuggets v. 76ers -4.5 | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Phi 76ers at 7:05 ET. The Denver Nuggets surprisingly own the West's second-best record of 37-17, despite dropped their last two games. The Nuggets have fought through numerous key injuries and as they head to Philly tonight, shooting guard Gary Harris (14.8) could miss his fifth straight contest with a groin injury, while power forward Paul Millsap (12.0 & 6.5) is in jeopardy of sitting out his third in a row with an ankle issue. The 76ers welcome the Nuggets to Philly on the heels of making a trade which the team believes has greatly bolstered its title aspirations. The 76ers acquired forward Tobias Harris from the Los Angeles Clippers, a player averaging impressive totals of 20.9 PPG and 7.9 RPG. Denver lost 135-130 to the host Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday, despite center Nikola Jokic recording 25 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists for his 10th triple-double of the season. Jokic leads the team in scoring (20.2), rebounding (10.5) and assists (7.7). The good news was that PG Jamal Murray (ankle) returned from a six-game absence to produce 19 points and 11 assists in 32 minutes during the loss to the Nets (he's averaging 18.5-4.3-5.0 on the season). Barton (12.0 & 6.5) is back playing regularly and not counting Harris and Millsap (see above), Denver has FIVE more players chipping in between 7.5 and 11.6 PPG. Rookie guard Landry Shamet (8.3) was the best player Philadelphia gave up in the six-player trade, that also saw the 76ers send two first-round picks and two second-round selections to the Clippers. "We are in the unique position to contend now and we think this trade positions us well for the postseason," 76ers GM Elton Brand said in a statement. "Tobias is one of the best three-point shooters in the NBA and possesses an innate ability to impact the game on both ends of the floor."Harris joins Embiid (27.4 & 13.5), Butler (18.9-4.8-3.8), Redick (18.3) and Simmons (17.4-9.4-8.0). There is NO reason for Philly NOT to be excited about the team's chances in the East! The Nuggets are just 10-17 ATS on the road this season, while Philly is 21-6 SU at home, where the team averages 118.7 PPG. Expect Philly to avenge a 126-110 loss at Denver on Jan 26, one in which Embiid sat out. Embiid will be ready this time around and it’s likely Harris makes his debut, as well. Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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02-06-19 | Rockets v. Kings +3 | Top | 127-101 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
James Harden takes the court tonight in Sacramento, looking to record his 28th straight game of 30 or more points. The 31-22 Houston Rockets visit the 28-25 Sacramento Kings on Wednesday and have won 15 of their last 17 meetings against the Kings. However, this is not "your father's" Kings. The upstart Kings extended their home-court winning streak to SEVEN in a row on Monday, with a 127-112 victory over the San Antonio Spurs. A 28-25 mark may see ho-hum to some but Sacramento won just 27 games ALL of last season and last produced a winning record back in the 2005-06 season. on Monday (current 12-year playoff drought), a triumph that left Sacramento on Harden poured in 44 points in Monday's 118-110 road win over the Phoenix Kings, registering his 20th, 40-point outing of the season. Harden has now scored 40 or more points in 15 of the last 21 games. "They held him to 44. That's pretty good," Housto head n coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters afterward. "He's seen everything, he's going to score." Power forward Kenneth Faried filled in at center with Capela out and had 17 points and matched his season best of 14 rebounds to post his fifth double-double in the past six games. However, he's played in just 20 games this season, averaging 9.7 & 6.3. The injury-ravaged Rockets have just four games remaining until the All-Star break offers some much-needed rest (more later). Sacramento is now 3-0 on a six-game homestand, after Monday's 127-112 victory over the Spurs. Rookie forward Marvin Bagley III (13.2 & 6.9) has recorded three straight double-doubles and had a season-high 24 points, to go along with 12 rebounds during the victory over the Kings. The No. 2 overall selection from Duke, is averaging 18.3 points and 12.3 rebounds over the past three games and scored in double digits in six straight outings. Buddy Hield, the key player in the Boogie Cousins trade, leads Sacramento in averaging 20.4 PPG, while shooting a white-hot 45.9% on threes. Second-year PG Fox (17.5 & 7.2 APG) is looking like a future All-Star as well. Also, Bogdanovich (14.9) and center Cauley-Stein (13.1 & 8.6) have become regular contributors. Here's the rub. The Rockets won in Phoenix on Monday without center Clint Capela (right thumb) and guard Eric Gordon (right leg), utilizing their 16th different starting lineup in the process. They have thrived on occasion despite the injuries, but far more often they have persevered, with forward P.J. Tucker the only member of the roster to have participated in all 53 contests. PG Chris Paul has missed 23 games this season, while Gordon has missed 12 and Capela 11. James Ennis III made his 25th start in the Rockets' 118-110 victory, but he's been absent 14 games. Have to LOVE the way Sacramento is playing and the team's stretch of home wins is the longest since the Kings won 14 straight during the 2005-06 campaign (last playoff appearance!). Sacramento is 17-10 SU and 19-8 ATS at the Golden 1 Center and comes in having won and covered SEVEN straight at home. No reason NOT to take them here as a home dog, considering the fact that Houston is 5-11 ATS as a road favorite this season. Good luck...Larry |
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02-05-19 | Clippers v. Hornets -3.5 | Top | 117-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Cha Hornets at 7:05 ET. The LA Clippers are 29-25, a record which gives them the West's No. 8 seed. LA is just 2 1/2 games out of the No. 5 seed but also just three games ahead of the No. 11 seed. The Clippers continue their six-game road trip with a visit to Charlotte on Tuesday. The Hornets are 26-26, leaving them with the East's No. 7 seed, three games up on the 9th-seeded Pistons. Charlotte has knocked off Memphis and Chicago in the first two of a three-game homestand. The Clippers got off to a fine start on their six-game road trip with a win at Detroit on Saturday but could not handle Toronto on Sunday on the second of a back-to-back, dropping a 121-103 decision. Visits to Indiana, Boston and Minnesota will round out the trip, as LA clings to the No. 8 spot in the West. PF Harris continues to lead the team in scoring (20.7) and rebounding (7.9), while Lou Williams (19.2 & 5.7 APG) continues to play as well as any sixth-man in the league. SF Gallinari (19.0 & 6.0) and backup PF Harrell (15.6 & 6.7) are both major contributors, as well. All-Star PG Kemba Walker (24.6-4.2-5.6) continues to carry the team and scored 15 of his 37 points in the fourth quarter on Saturday against Chicago, while adding 10 assists. NINE more players get regularly minutes for Charlotte, averaging between 6.6 and 14.8 PPG. 6-5 SG Lamb is the team's second-best scorer and also leads the team in rebounding (5.6). Finding secondary scoring is the always a big challenge for Charlotte but second-year guard Malik Monk (10.4) is stepping up as of late. He scored 18 points against the Bulls, his fourth straight game scoring in double figures. The Hornets are catching the Clippers at the right time, as LA limps into Charlotte 5-9 SU & ATS over the team's last 14 games. Meanwhile, Charlotte is 19-8 SU at home (compared to 7-18 on the road), having won FIVE straight at Spectrum Center (4-1 ATS), as well as NINE of 10 since mid-December. No real pointspread to cover here, so go with the Hornets. Good luck...Larry |
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02-04-19 | Hawks v. Wizards -6 | Top | 137-129 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The 17-35 Atlanta Hawks sit 7 1/2 games out of the East's final playoff spot as they head into the finale of a seven-game road trip Monday night at the 22-30 Washington Wizards. The Hawks are 3-3 on the trip so far, after Saturday’s 118-112 victory at Phoenix. The Wizards continue to adjust to life without PG John Wall (20.7 & 8.7 APG), as they come off losing 131-115 at home to Milwaukee on Saturday, their fourth defeat in the past six games. However, Washington sits a more modest 2 1/2 games out of the East's No. 8 seed. Atlanta’s draft-night trade sent Luka Doncic to Dallas for Trae Young. Doncic is likely headed for ROY honors but Young's 'star' is 'shining brightly' these days as well. He has scored 20 or more points with eight-plus assists in each of his last four games, scoring 27 points with eight assists and seven rebounds in Saturday's win over the Suns. He's second on the team in scoring (16.9) and leads Atlanta by handing out 7.4 APG. Atlanta's top scorer and rebounder is second-year player John Collins. The 6-10 big man out of Wake Forest averages 19.7 & 9.9. Collins matched his career high with 35 points Saturday and added 16 rebounds (one off his career best). The Hawks have plenty of depth, as seven players average in double digits but the team struggles because it allows 118.0 PPG (30th of 30 teams). Guard Bradley Beal (24.7-5.0-5.1) scored 24 points in the loss to Milwaukee but he continues to raise his game in Wall’s absence, averaging 27.3 points and shooting 37.5 percent from three-point range in the 17 games since Wall was shut down with a season-ending ankle injury. PG Tomas Satoransky made 41 starts when Wall was injured last season and is averaging 10.4 points and 5.8 assists in 30 starts this season. Trevor Ariza was acquired from Phoenix and the SF has played very well in 22 games, averaging 14.8-5.8-4.1. Otto Porter Jr. (12.6 & 5.6) returned to the starting lineup after coming off the bench for most of January, and despite a sprained toe finished with 18 points and seven rebounds Saturday. The Hawks have been on an extended road trip because of the Super Bowl being played in Atlanta and will return home after Monday's game. I have to like the Wizards in this one, as the Hawks are just 9-22 SU on the road, allowing a whopping 118.2 PPG. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS at home their last 10. Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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02-02-19 | 76ers v. Kings +3.5 | Top | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Sac Kings at 10:05 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers are 34-18 (currently own the East's third-best record, four game back of the Bucks) and will try to avoid a letdown after what has to be the team's best win of the season. The 76ers put up a 42-point third quarter en route to a 113-104 win at Golden State on Thursday, snapping the defending champs' 11-game winning streak. Philly now wraps up a four-game road trip at the Sacramento Kings, who are 26-25. That may not seem like much but Sacramento won just 27 games ALL of last season and last produced a winning record back in the 2005-06 season. "It's a fantastic win. This group -- myself included -- we have not beaten Golden State," head coach Brett Brown told reporters. "To do it on the road, to do it in front of their fans against a team that is this good and had won that many in a row, it is a good night." Joel Embiid had 26 points and 20 rebounds in the victory as Philadelphia improved to 14-5 against the Western Conference, the top mark in the East. Embiid (27.2 & 13.4) gets better each game and is supported by Butler (18.6-3.2-5.0 in his 30 games with Philly), Redick (18.3) and Simmons (16.8-9.5-8.1). Philly averages 115.6 PPG (4th-best) but allows 111.9 PPG (21st), including 114.8 PPG on the road where the 76ers are a modest 13-13. The Kings returned from a 2-4 road trip and routed the Atlanta Hawks 135-113 on Wednesday night. Harry Giles (just 6.0 PPG on the season) recorded a season-high 20 points for Sacramento in what was the opener of a six-game homestand. Rookie Marvin Bagley III backed Giles' big effort with 17 points and 12 rebounds of his own against Atlanta as the young Duke products provided a potential glimpse of the future for Sacramento. He's back healthy and is averaging 12.9 & 6.6 RPG. Buddy Hield, the key player in the Boogie Cousins trade, leads Sacramento in averaging 20.2 PPG, while shooting a white-hot 45.8% on threes. Second-year PG Fox (17.4 & 7.2 APG) is looking like a futre All-Star as well. Also, Bogdanovich (15.3) and center Cauley-Stein (13.1 & 8.7) have become regular contributors. Head coach Dave Joerger has an "under the radar" good team in Sacramento. Aren't the Sixers in an obvious "let-down" situation here? It shouldn't go unnoticed that Philly is just 12-20 ATS coming off a SU win this season and beating Golden St in Oakland is no ordinary win! Meanwhile, Sacramento is 15-10 SU and 17-8 ATS at the Golden 1 Center and comes in having won and covered five straight at home. The Kings have also won FOUR of their last five over Philly, including a 2-0 SU & ATS sweep last season. Home dog barks LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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02-01-19 | Rockets v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 122-136 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the Den Nuggets at 10:05 ET. Houston's James Harden continued his scoring spree with 37 points on Tuesday, his 24th straight game of 30 or more points. "It's a terrible loss for us. Terrible," Harden told reporters afterward. "A letdown. We had no energy from the beginning of the game." The 29-21 Rockets (currently the West's No. 6 seed) will head to Denver for tonight's game with the Nuggets. Denver beat the 105-99 Pelicans in New Orleans, a day after the Pelicans won in Houston. It was Denver's FOURTH straight victory and 14th in the past 18 contests, giving the Nuggets a 35-15 record (a half-game behind the Warriors' for the West's best record). The good news for Houston is that not only have the Rockets already posted two double-digit victories over Denver earlier this season but Houston opens a four-game road trip looking to defeat Denver for the 10th consecutive time.Harden (36.3-6.7-8.10 is having another MVP-like season and PG Chris Paul (15.3 & 8.0 APG) has returned from a 17-game absence. However, center Clint Capela, averaging career highs in scoring (17.6) and rebounding (12.6), remains sidelined until late-Feb with a thumb injury. Denver center Nikola Jokic had 20 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists for his eighth triple-double of the season in the Nuggets' win at New Orleans. He leads the team in scoring (20.1), rebounding (10.4) and in assists (7.7), on the season. PG Jamal Murray (18.5) will likely miss his fourth straight game (ankle) and that will give backup Monte Morris (10.2 & 3.7 APG) a chance to follow up on Wednesday's strong effort of 20 points, seven assists and six rebounds. Most importantly, Morris didn't commit a single turnover in 40 minutes in his second career start and has just four miscues in 118 minutes over the past four games. Denver has fought through key injuries all season but SG Harris (14.8 & 5.6), swingman Barton (12.9 & 4.5) and PF Paul Millsap (12.3 & 6.7) are all back playing regularly. Yes, Houston has won NINE straight over Denver and who can deny what Harden as done lately. Harden just concluded one of the top months in NBA history by averaging 43.6 points, 8.7 rebounds, 7.6 assists and 2.1 steals in 14 games. He has scored at least 35 points in each of his past 11 games, including efforts of 61, 58 and 57 and has made at least five 3-pointers on 11 occasions. Harden scored 610 points in the month to become the first player since Michael Jordan - 729 in March of 1987 - to reach 600 in a month. However, Houston will be without Clint Capela this time around (27.5 PPG vs the Nuggets this season) and PG Chris Paul's return has resulted in an 0-2 ATS start. Houston is just 8-15 ATS on the road this season, while the Nuggets are 22-4 SU & 18-8 ATS at Pepsi Center this season, outscoring opponents 115.3-to-103.8 PPG. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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01-31-19 | Mavs v. Pistons -2 | Top | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Det Pistons at 7:05 ET. Rookie sensation Luka Doncic led the Mavericks past the Pistons 106-101 last Friday in Dallas. The two teams meet again tonight in frosty Detroit, as Doncic will look to repeat his 32-8-8 performance. The 19-year-old rookie is the first teenager in NBA history with multiple triple-doubles in a season after posting two in the past five games. The 23-27 Mavs lost fouhe second game of a four-game homestand, having dropped four of their last five contests to fall to 21-28. Second-year PG Dennis Smith Jr. (12.7) returned to the Mavericks after an unhappy sabbatical on Jan 22 and his return coincides with the Mavs' 3-1 run. Smith missed six straight games due to friction over his role but shared the ball-handling duties with star rookie Luka Doncic. Smith scored 13 points, recorded a career-high 15 assists and matched his career best of 10 rebounds against the Knicks for his second career triple-double. He's scored in double digits in each game, averaging 15.5-6.0-7.5. "Smith had a big impact game," Head coach Rick Carlisle told reporters, later adding this remark about Smith posting a triple-double one game after Doncic: "It means that they can play together if you ask me." Doncic is averaging 20.4-6.9-5.4 on the season. With Detroit's season being mired in mediocrity, there is plenty of speculation that the 29-year-old Blake Griffin could be on the move prior to the Feb. 7 deadline. Griffin scored 18 points in Tuesday's 115-105 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, after scoring 30 or more points in eight of his previous 11 appearances. He checks in at 26.3-8.1-5.3 on the season and has NOT asked for a trade. Center Drummond (16.5 & 14.8) is having a solid season but Detroit's backcourt has been shaky at best. PG Jackson (14.3 & 4.2 APG) has been inconsistent and currently Bullock (12.0) and Smith (8.7) are dealing with ankle and groin issues, respectively. There is little doubt that Dallas is a team on the rise, as the team's 23 wins (through 50 games) is just one shy of the team's entire win-total from last season (24). However, Dallas checks in just 5-20 SU on the road this season and off a game last night (a road win to boot), I will not take them in this spot against the avenging Piston with "no margin for error" (will likely need to win to cover!). Good luck...Larry |
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01-30-19 | Jazz v. Blazers -1 | Top | 105-132 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Por Blazers at 10:354 ET. The Utah Jazz visit Moda Center in Portland on Wednesday having won NINE of 10 and 11 of their last 13. Utah is making its way up the Western Conference standings at 29-22 (currently own the No. 7 seed) but one of the teams still in front of them in the West are the Portland Trail Blazers, who are 31-20 (currently own the No. 4 seed, the last with homecourt advantage in the first round). The Trail Blazers enter on a nice roll as well, having gone 5-1 SU & ATS since back-to-back loses at Denver (Jan 13) and Sacramento (Jan 14). PG Ricky Rubio is back in the lineup (missed six games from Jan 9-18 with a hamstring issue) and the Jazz are thriving behind the play of their starting backcourt. Donovan Mitchell is averaging 22.5-3.8-4.0 and Rubio 12.8 & 6.0 APG. The duo combined for 47 points and 13 assists in a 125-111 win at Minnesota on Sunday. "We were playing the right way," Jazz coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "Our shots were better because of our guards. When we attack the rim, everything else opens up and we get easier shots and shoot better." Mitchell has scored at least 24 points in each of the last 12 games (he is averaging 28.1 points on 45.1 percent shooting in January). All five Utah starters average in double figures, as joining Mitchell and Rubio are center Gobert (15.0 & 12.9), swingman Ingles (11.6-3.8-4.9), PF Favors (11.0 & 7.2). Coming off the bench are SF Crowder (12.1 & 4.7) and SG Korver (10.1 PPG on 41.2% from three in his 29 games with the Jazz). Utah is one of the NBA's best defensive teams, allowing 105.1 PPG (3rd-best). Portland has its own dynamic backcourt duo with Damian Lillard (26.2-4.5-6.2) and CJ McCollum (20.8), who recorded his first career triple-double (28-10-10) in a 120-111 win over the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday (Lillard sat that one out but will play here). Note that Seth Curry (6.3) started in place of Lillard on Saturday and scored a season-high 22 points. Center Nurkic (15.2 & 10.4) is vastly underrated, as is PF Aminu, who adds 9.6 & 8.2. Portland's home record is now 21-7 on the season and the Blazers take the Moda Center court tonight on a seven-game home winning streak (6-1 ATS). Portland owns all the tools to cool off the red-hot Jazz, who are after all, a modest 14-12 SU on the road (Utah will need to win to cover here). Portland wins "with room to spare." Good luck... Larry |
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01-27-19 | Jazz v. Wolves +4 | Top | 125-111 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Min T-wolves at 7:05 ET. The Utah Jazz finished a successful homestand with a 106-102 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday. Utah heads out on the road after having played EIGHT of its last nine in Salt Lake City, with the Jazz going 7-1 in those eight home contests. Utah opens a game quick two-stop road trip on Sunday, by completing a home-and-home set with the Timberwolves in Minneapolis. The T-wolves played without injured PGs Jeff Teague (11.5 & 8.1 APG) and Derrick Rose (18.6 & 4.7 APG) Friday in Utah but Minnesota rallied from a 21-point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter and drew within a point in the final minute. The Timberwolves actually had a chance to take the lead but Jerryd Bayless and Luol Deng each missed a go-ahead three-pointer in the waning seconds. Utah's Donovan Mitchell (22.2-3.8-3.9) had 24 points in Friday's win plus added a career-high 11 assists. The second-year player has scored at least 24 points in 11 consecutive contests. All five Utah starters average in double figures, as joining Mitchell are PG Rubio (12.7 & 6.01 AGP), swingman Ingles (11.5-3.9-4.9), PF Favors (11.0 & 71.) and center Gobert (15.0 & 13.1) Coming off the bench are SF Crowder (12.0 & 4.7) and SG Korver (10.0 PPG on 40.6% from three in his 28 games with the Jazz). Utah is one of the NBA's best defensive teams, allowing 105.0 PPG (3rd-best). Minnesota saw three guards - Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones - each miss Friday's loss due to foot or ankle injuries. Injuries to those players have revealed that this is a team that won't go down without a fight. Minnesota leaned heavily on center Karl-Anthony Towns (as usual), who scored 33 points on 12-of-19 shooting. He averages 22.8 & 12.3 on the season. The T-wolves outscored the Jazz 33-16 in the fourth quarter on Friday, giving the team some momentum heading into the rematch. Towns comes in with a string of four straight double-doubles, in which he's averaged 28.8 points and 13 rebounds. Utah center Rudy Gobert was questionable on Friday with a sore hamstring but gutted it out to finish with 18 points, 16 rebounds and four blocks. He may need to be 100 percent here in Minnesota. Utah went just 5 of 27 from the floor in the fourth quarter on Friday and I'm "all over" Minnesota here in this quick turn-around. The Jazz have been home for EIGHT of their last nine games, a period from Jan 9-25. Utah will get no 'love' here at Target Center, where the T-wolves are 16-8 SU this year (the pointspread is MORE than manageable). Good luck.,..Larry |
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01-26-19 | Warriors v. Celtics +3.5 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The Golden State Warriors have won THREE of the last four NBA titles and now are the hottest team in the NBA at the moment. The Warriors have won NINE in a row and at 34-14, own the West's best record and trail only the 35-12 Milwaukee Bucks for the league's best record, overall. Golden State won 126-118 at Washington on Thursday, despite Curry and Thompson combining to go 3-of-12 from beyond the arc. The Warriors continue a five-game road trip in Boston on Saturday night (ABC cameras will be there). The 30-18 Celtics are hardly 'chopped liver, ' as Boston has won five straight, after pushing its home winning streak to 10 in a row with a 123-103 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday. Golden State hardly needs an introduction, as with Boogie Cousins now in the starting lineup at center (he started the last three games and averaged 13.0 & 7.0 in about 20 minutes), the Warriors start FIVE All-Stars! I'll by-pass the individual numbers and point out that Golden St leads the NBA in scoring (118.9 PPG), FG percentage (49.1) and FT percentage (82.0), while 'wallowing' with the league's second-best three-point percentage (38.9). Boston All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving (23.5-4.8-6.9) sat out Wednesday with an illness (flu) and Terry Rozier got the nod to start in his spot. Rozier responded by going 8-of-8 from the floor in the first half and scoring 22 of his 26 points before the break to set the tone as the Celtics coasted to a 20-point win. Can't imagine Irving will miss this one. Tatum (16.3 & 6.2), Morris (14.8 & 6.0), Brown (12.3 & 4.3) and Hayward (11.0-4.6-3.5) give Boston a plethora of quality frontcourt players plus there is always the versatile Horford (12.2-6.4-3.6). When these teams met last season in Boston (November), the Celics won 92-88, holding the Warriors to their fifth-lowest point total of the season. Boston enters this contest, second in the league in both opponents' FG (44.1) and three-point (33.4) percentage. Beware, the Warriors are just 9-11 as a road favorite this season. The TD Garden rocks tonight. Take Boston. Good luck...Larry |
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01-25-19 | Pistons v. Mavs -5 | Top | 101-106 | Push | 0 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Dal Mavericks at 8:35 ET. The Dallas Mavericks welcome the Detroit Pistons to the American Airlines Center on Friday night. Both teams come in 21-26 but while the Pistons seem to be going nowhere, the Mavs have made excellent strides coming off last season's 24-58 year. Luka Doncic (19.9-6.8-5.3) may have already locked up the ROY award and is the current leader of the new-look Mavs (future HOF Dirk Nowitzki is now just a cheerleader, averaging 3.8 & 1.8 in 16 games). The Mavs just ended a four-game skid with a 106-98 win over the Clippers. Detroit is coming off a win as well, after Wednesday's 98-94 road win over the New Orleans Pelicans (note: the Pistons won for just the EIGHTH time in their last 27 games). Power forward Blake Griffin scored 37 points in Detroit's win but center Andre Drummond (concussion) missed a third straight game. Griffin (26.3-8.1-5.3) went on a fourth-quarter roll by scoring 20 of his 37 in the stanza and he also finished with nine rebounds, seven assists and four 3-pointers. "He's carrying us, handling the basketball, making good decisions, just doing everything we could ask a franchise player to do," Detroit coach Dwane Casey told reporters. "He's been great. He sets the tone for us offensively. He'd probably have more assists if we knocked down more shots." As for Drummond (16.3 & 14.9), he's supposedly been cleared of the league's concussion protocol but that doesn't mean he'll play. Second-year PG Dennis Smith Jr. (12.7) returned to the Mavericks after an unhappy sabbatical and will again be in the lineup for Friday's game against the visiting Detroit Pistons. Smith missed six straight games due to friction over his role but shared the ball-handling duties with star rookie Luka Doncic in Tuesday's 106-98 victory (he had 17 points and eight rebounds in 37 minutes). Doncic is just 14-of-46 from the floor over the past three games and his take on Smith's hiatus was brief: "It shouldn't happen. It's bad for a team." Good for this team is SF Barnes, who is averaging 17.9 PPG after averaging 19.2 and 18.9 in his first two year's with the team. With Drummond questionable at best, the Pistons will be relying WAY too much on Griffin. Note that Detroit's only two other double digit scorers, guards Jackson (14.1 & 4.1 APG) and Bullock (12.1), are shooting a combined 37% overall and 31.8% on threes over the last 10 games. Amazingly, Griffin is the only player averaging 10 PPG or more over the team's last three. The Pistons are just 8-15 SU on the road, while Dallas comes in 17-6 SU & 16-7 ATS at home. What's more, Dallas is 16-5 ATS at the American Airlines Center when not laying more than nine points (that's the case, here). Good luck...Larry |
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01-23-19 | Nuggets v. Jazz -3 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the Ut Jazz at 10:35 ET. The Utah Jazz saw their six-game winning streak end on MLK Day, losing 109-104 at home to the Portland Trail Blazers. The 26-22 Jazz welcome the 31-14 Denver Nuggets to Salt Lake City tonight, with the Nuggets coming to town having won 10 of their last 13 games, after routing the the Cavaliers 124-102 last Saturday. Denver arrives with the second-best record in the Western Conference (only the 33-14 Warriors are better), while Utah currently owns the West's No. 7. The Jazz are only one game clear of the playoff 'cut line' but are also just 2 1/2 games out of the No. 4 seed, which holds homecourt advantage in the first round. PG Jamal Murray (18.8-4.5-4.9) scored 26 points in the win over Cleveland for his fourth straight game of shooting 50 percent or better. Standout center Nikola Jokic had 19 points, 12 assists and 11 rebounds against the Cavaliers for his third triple-double in the past seven games. He continues to lead Denver in scoring (19.6), rebounding (10.0) and assists (7.7). Denver has fought through key injuries to keep winning but it looks as if Harris (15.5), Millsap (12.8 & 6.7) and Barton (10.3) are now ready to play regularly. The Jazz lost at home to the Blazers, despite another outstanding effort by Donovan Mitchell (22.0-3.7-3.7). He scored 36 points and has scored more than 20 points in each of the past nine games, averaging 29.8 points during the stretch. Center Rudy Gobert (14.9 & 13.1) has recorded eight straight double-doubles and has 39 on the season. He matches up will against Jokic plus PG Ricky Rubio (12.8 & 6.0 APG) returned from a six-game absence due to a (hamstring) to score 12 points in just 14 minutes against Portland. Starters Ingles (11.5-3.9-4.9) and Favors (11.2 & 7.3) also average in double figures, while SF Crowder (12.0 & 4.8) and SG Korver (9.8 PPG on 40.0% three-point shooting in 26 games) have been excellent contributors off the bench. Utah is in "revenge mode" after losing 103-88 in the Mile High City back on Nov 3. In that contest, the Nuggets outscored the Jazz 35-15 in the fourth quarter. Denver is trying to halt a SEVEN-game losing streak in Utah, one in which the Jazz have won by an average of 14 points, holding the Nuggets below 90 points in FIVE of those wins. Note: Utah allows 105.0 PPG, 3rd-best in the NBA. Good luck...Larry |
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01-23-19 | Raptors v. Pacers -5 | Top | 106-110 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. Toronto capped a 3-0 homestand with a 120-105 win over Sacramento last night. Star swingman Kawhi Leonard (27.6 & 7.9) missed his third game in a row for the Raptors and he is not expected back until Friday at Houston. Surprisingly, the 36-13 Raptors are 11-2 without Leonard this season. Toronto plays again tonight, when it visits Indianapolis to take on the 31-15 Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are 11-4 in the last 35 days but two of those losses have come against the Raptors. Toronto edged Indiana by three points in a Dec 19 win and then won 121-105 in the rematch on Jan 6 (both games were played in Toronto). Toronto overcame Leonard's absence last night with a 16-for-40 showing from behind the arc. CJ Miles made four-of-five from long-range and is averaging 13.7 points in just 16.7 minutes over his last three games (he averaging only 5.5 PPG on the season). PG Kyle Lowry (14.1-4.4-9.4) finished with 19 points and nine assists while Fred VanVleet (10.4 & 4.6 APG) also scored 19. Toronto is still without center Valanciunus (12.8 & 7.2), who hasn't played since Dec 12 (he hopes to be back by mid-Feb). Stepping up big time for Toronto this season has been PF Ibaka (16.2 & 7.3) and the 6-9 Siakam (15.0 & 6.9), who is one of the NBA's most improved players.(he averaged 7.3 PPG last season and just 4.2 in his rookie year). Both of Indiana's losses to the Raptors have been in Toronto."They beat us twice, but we feel like we're right there," Pacers PG Darren Collison said. "Eliminate some mistakes and we'll be OK. We match up pretty well against them. But if we want to be one of the best in the East, this shouldn't be a statement game. We should go out and compete and win. I feel like if you're the best, it shouldn't be a statement game. Statement games are for teams that are underdogs. I don't think we feel like underdogs." Collison (9.5 & 5.6 APG scored 19 points and handed out nine assists while Bojan Bogdanovic chipped in 16 points in Sunday's 120-94 victory over the Hornets. Bogdanovic is averaging 16.0 & 4.1 on the season, second to Oladipo (19.2-5.7-5.3), the Pacers' best player. Indiana's depth is impressive, with PF Young (12.6 & 6.0) and center Turner (12.8 & 7.3) rounding out the team's starting-five. However, Sabonis (15.0 & 9.6) has been a 'monster' off the bench plus Evans (10.9) is starting to feel at home with his latest new team (note: he's averaging 15.5 points in 18.7 minutes over his last six games). . This is almost a "must win" for the Pacers. Indiana has lost four in a row to top teams in the Eastern Conference (twice to Toronto and once each to Boston and Philly). The Pacers are now only 3-7 against teams with a .600 or better winning percentage. I realize that the Raptors are 8-1 in the second game of back-to-backs but this is a game Indiana has to win if it has any hope of playing with confidence this postseason. I've got that feeling and will bet on it! Good luck...Larry |
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01-21-19 | Rockets v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Phi 76ers at 8:05 ET. Reigning MVP James Harden has been in quite a 'zone!. He's scored 30-plus points in 19 straight games, while topping 40 in 10 of his last 13. The Rockets rallied from 18 points down in the second half Saturday to beat the Los Angeles Lakers 138-134 in overtime. Harden scored 48 in the game and is averaging 54.3 points over Houston's last three contests. The 26-19 Rockets will travel to Philadelphia for a MLK Day game with the 30-17 Sixers, who saw their three-game winning streak come to an end Saturday with a 117-115 home loss against Oklahoma City, as they turned the ball over 17 times overall and allowed a four-point play by Paul George with 5.1 seconds left. Houston now sits one game out of third place in the Western Conference after starting the season 11-14 through its first 25 contests.The Rockets continue to fight through injuries, although Chris Paul is expected back soon (early Feb). However, center Clint Capela (career high averages of 17.6 PPG and 12.6 RPG) is out until late-February with a thumb injury. Good news comes in the form of Gordon (16.2) returning to the court the last two games, averaging 25.0 points. Rivers (12.6 PPG in 13 contests) was a great sign after Paul got hurt and veteran swingman Green (9.2 PPG) has averaged 12.7 PPG during the 14 games that Paul has missed. Joel Embiid led the way with 31 points, eight rebounds and six assists in the loss to OKC. Ben Simmons had 20 points, 15 rebounds and nine assists but despite those efforts, the Sixers weren't able to convert on their last possession with Simmons looking to be confused after handing the ball to Jimmy Butler beyond the three-point arc. Embiid (27.0 & 13.2) is the first Philadelphia player to score at least 30 points in 20 of his first 45 games of a season since Allen Iverson (2005-06). Butler checks in at 19.0-4.8-3.4, Redick at 18.5 PPG and Simmons at 16.6-9.5-8.2. However, I'm not convinced the 76ers are better off with Butler, after exchanging him for valuable role players like Covington and Saric. That said, I sure like Philly to bounce back from its Saturday home loss to OKC. While Harden remains 'on fire,' Houston has cooled off a bit while alternating victories in its last nine outings (5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS). More notably, the Rockets have had trouble scoring away from home since Dec 1, with the exception of the team's 135-134 win at Golden St on Jan 3. Let me point out that excluding that contest, Houston is averaing a very modest 10.1 PPG in its other eight away games since Dec 1. Philly is 19-5 SU at home this season, while averaging 118.9 PPG. Yes, Harden "gets his" but Philly gets the win and COVER! Good luck...Larry |
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01-21-19 | Pistons v. Wizards -5.5 | 87-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Was Wizards at 2:05 ET. The 20-25 Detroit Pistons will be in Washington on MLK Day to take on the 19-26 Wizards.Detroit is currently in 9th-place in the playoff standings (only EIGHT get in), while Washington sits 10th. However, with basically half the season remaining, both still have reasonable playoff aspirations. Detroit had a three-game winning streak in its sights after wins over Orlando and Miami but was outscored 29-19 in the fourth quarter and surrendered 23 points off 14 turnovers to the Kings in a two-point home loss on Saturday. The Wizards are coming back from a trip to London, where they defeated the New York Knicks 101-100 on Thursday in the first game the franchise has played overseas. Blake Griffin (26.0-8.1-5.3) did all he could in attempting to get the "W" but his third consecutive 30-plus performance (38 points on 12-of-23 shooting) was not enough. The Pistons played that game without Ish Smith (8.7), who missed the game after experiencing problems connected to a right abductor injury. More bad news came in the fact that center Andre Drummond (16.3 & 14.9) was placed in concussion protocol for Saturday's loss, after playing just seven minutes in the team's Friday game vs Miami. He's listed as doubtful for Monday's contest. I get the feeling that the Wizards are slowly pulling themselves out of a funk that has lasted nearly the entire first half of the season. All-Star PG John Wall (20.8 & 8.7 APG) is out with a season-ending heel injury but SG Bradley Beal (24.9-5.0-5.0) remains confident the team can continue to make strides forward. We're a competitive team," Beal told reporters. "Win, lose, or draw, we stick together. We keep our heads high, we continue to get better. We're right here in the playoff hunt, which is where we want to be." It's hardly a positive sign that Detroit allowed the Kings to rally from a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit on its home court on Saturday, as Buddy Hield nailed a three-pointer at the buzzer for the Sacramento win. Meanwhile, the Wizards have covered FIVE straight at the Capital One Arena, going 4-1 SU with that lone loss coming in OT by two points to Toronto. Washington has averaged a WHOPPING 123.6 PPG in those five straight ATS home wins, while Detroit limps in 7-14 SU on the road this season, after losing 11 of its last 14 away from home. Take the Wizards. Good luck...Larry |
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01-18-19 | Pelicans v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
The New Orleans Pelicans have struggled defensively all season and are coming off having allowed their highest point total of the current of the season in Wednesday's 147-140 loss at Golden State on Wednesday. The 21-24 Pelicans visit Moda Center tonight and the good news is that New Orleans swept Portland in the first round of last season's playoffs. The 27-19 Blazers defeated Cleveland 129-112 on Wednesday, Portland's seventh win in 10 games, with five coming by double digits. Nikola Mirotic missed 12 game s recently with ankle woes but scored a season-high 29 points and matched his season best of six 3-pointers against the Warriors. The 6-11 Anthony Davis misses Mirotic when he's out of the lineup. It's turning into another typical year for A.D, who ranks third in the NBA in scoring (29.4) and rebounds (13.4) plus second in blocked shots (2.6). Surprising, two more Pelicans average 20-plus points for New Orleans, PG Holiday (20.8-4.6-8.2) and backup PF Randle (20.1 & 9.2). Guards Moore (12.6) and Payton (10.7-3.9-5.9) are also regular contributors. Scoring is NOT an issue but defense is, as New Orleans allows 115.5 PPG (28th). Damian Lillard scored 33 points in Wednesday's win over the Cavs, after recording 35 two nights earlier in a loss to Sacramento. Lillard's having another excellent season, averaging 26.2-4.4-6.1 and is teamed with backcourt mate McCollum (20.6). Center Jusuf Nurkic (14.8 & 10.4) posted his first career triple-double against the Cavaliers as he registered 10 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists while also blocking five shots. Nurkic became the 16th player in NBA history to reject five or more shots while recording a triple-double. Portland can match New Orleans' offense and comes in allowing 107.0 PPG its last 10. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are just 6-18 SU on the road, allowing 117.1 PPG. Portland is 19-7 SU at home this season, including a 132-119 home victory over the Pelicans back on Nov 1. Forget that 4-0 sweep in last yerars first round, as Portland has won 13 of the last 15 regular-season meetings! Good luck...Larry |
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01-17-19 | 76ers v. Pacers -3 | Top | 120-96 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* TNT Knockout is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The 29-16 Philadelphia 76ers and the 29-14 Indiana Pacers both showed off how good they can be on Tuesday. The 76ers blew out the Minnesota Timberwolves 141-107 and the Pacers did the same to the Phoenix Suns, 131-97. The two Eastern Conference contenders square off tonight, as the Pacers host the 76ers. Indiana sits in third place in the East, one game ahead of Philadelphia, Philadelphia shot 59.8 percent from the floor against Minnesota and handed out 40 assists on 55 made FGs. The 76ers also set a franchise record with 21 made three-pointers as Wilson Chandler (4-of-6), Joel Embiid (4-of-6), Jonah Bolden (4-of-5) and Jimmy Butler (3-of-4) all 'lit it up' from beyond the arc. Joel Embiid (27.0 & 13.3) led the way by scoring 31 points and grabbing 13 rebounds against Minnesota.. Ben Simmons (16.7-9.5-8.2) had 20 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists, despite sitting out most of the fourth quarter. Butler is averaging 18.7-4.9-3.2 and SB Redick averages 18.3 PPG but Philly's problem is that the above mentioned players pretty much carry the entire load. Another problem is a defense which allows 112.4 PPG (22nd). Indiana's defensive effort on Tuesday was led by center Myles Turner, who returned from a four-game absence due to a shoulder injury and delivered 18 points and six rebounds while a pair of blocks pushed his NBA-leading total to 105. SEVEN Indiana players scored in double figures on Tuesday but NOT All-Star guard Victor Oladipo, who managed eight points on 2-of-11 shooting. However, Oladipo is the team's best player, averaging 19.5-5.8-5.2. Five more Pacers score in double digits in Bogdanovic (16.3 & 4.0), Sabonis (15.2 & 9.7), Turner (13.1 & 7.1), Young (12.5 & 6.0) and Evans (10.6). PG Collison just misses at 9.2 PPG plus a team-best 5.6 APG. Unlike Philly, Indiana allows just 103.1 PPG, best in the league! Philadelphia earned a 100-94 win in its last trip to Indiana on Nov 7 and here, will be looking for consecutive wins at Indiana for the first time since it won three straight from Dec 22, 2004, to Nov 5, 2005 (that's a long time ago). The Pacers have been very streaky vs the spread but they have still been mostly winning those games they weren’t covering. Indiana has won NINE of its last 11 games coming into this contest. The Pacers are 15-5 SU at home, where they allow only 97.0 PPG. Meanwhile, the 76ers are a so-so 10-12 on the road, where they allow a whopping 116.1 PPG. With this line, the Pacers are the play. Good luck...Larry |
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01-16-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -1.5 | Top | 129-109 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET. Utah shooting guard Donovan Mitchell continued his strong play with 28 points in the Jazz's 100-94 Monday win over the Detroit Pistons. He leads all Utah scorers at 21.5 PPG on the season and is averaging 30 points over the past six contests. Utah's win over the Pistons completed a 4-0 homestand, as the Jazz are now 24-21 and head to LA on a season-high four-game winning streak. The 24-19 LA Clippers fell 121-117 to the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday and have opened a four-game homestand 0-2, while losing three straight, overall. Utah center Center Rudy Gobert (14.8 & 12.8) matched his career best of 25 rebounds against the Pistons plus also contributed 18 points and two blocked shots. All five of Utah's starting-five average in double digits but PG Ricky Rubio (12.8 & 6.2 APG) missed a fourth straight game with starter with a hamstring injury. Yes, the Jazz are 4-0 without him but his absence is NOT good news. Also, reserves Dante Exum (7.4) and Raul Neto (4.9) are sidelined. LA fell to New Orleans on Monday but SF Danilo Gallinari ((19.7 & 6.1) has scored 20 or more points in six of the past eight games after recording 25 against the Pelicans and he is averaging 20.3 points during the stretch.PF Tobias Harris leads the team in scoring (20.8) and rebounding (8.0), while sixth-man Williams (18.6 & 4.9 APG) continues to be a major force. Coming off the bench (like Williams) and also making a huge impact is power forward Montrezl Harrell (16.0 & 6.8). He scored 26 points vs the Pelicans and has exceeded 20 points in three of the past four games, averaging 21.5 points during the span. Utah comes in off four straight wins (all at home) and this trip to Staples Center represents the team's LONE road contest in a nine-game stretch (Jazz return home for another four-game homestand, beginning Friday). I realize that the Jazz have won the last three meetings with the Clippers but that comes after losing 19 of the previous 21 matchups! "We just gotta stop putting ourselves in these holes," Harrell told reporters after the loss to the Pelicans. "Yeah, we do a great job of coming back and fighting and getting back into it, but we're running out of gas. We're using so much energy and we're doing so much fighting to put ourselves just within three (or) five." No Rubio and playing its ONLY road game in a nine-game stretch is NOT a good situation for heh Jazz. The Clippers shoot the ball extremely well, making 47.4% of their FGs (6th), including 38.8% on threes (4th). LA is averaging 116.2 PPG at Staples Center this season and "gets things right" in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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01-14-19 | Grizzlies v. Rockets OVER 204.5 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Mem/Hou Over at 8:05 ET. Houston's James Harden extended his streak of 30-point games to 16 with 38 points on Sunday, tying Kobe Bryant for the most consecutive 30-point games since Wilt Chamberlain in 1964. However, he missed 16 of 17 three-pointers, as the Rockets blew a 12-point lead against the 19-24 Magic in a 116-109 setback. The 24-18 Rockets suffered their first defeat against a losing team since Dec 20,. Houston returns home tonight to face the 19-23 Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are in the midst of a challenging stretch that will see them follow up the trip to Houston with a home game against Milwaukee and then visits to Boston and Toronto. Memphis snapped a six-game slide with an impressive 96-86 win over San Antonio on Wednesday but then lost112-108 at Miami on Saturday. The Grizzlies continued their downward spiral on Saturday, blowing a 12-point, first-half lead in falling by four points at Miami. Memphis was coming off a season in which it went 22-60 but fashioned a surprising 12-5 start to the current one. However, that is now a distant memory, as Memphis has dropped 18 of 25 games since occupying first place in the Western Conference on Thanksgiving. The Grizzlies have posted a minus-8.6 net rating while losing seven of eight, a mark that would rank 28th in the NBA if extrapolated over this current season. PG Conley (20.2 & 6.2 APG) and center Gasol (15.7 & 8.6) continue to lead the way, while 6-11 rookie Jackson (13.4 & 4.6) has proven to be a solid draft pick. The 28-year-old JaMychal Green led the way in Saturday's loss with 24 points and 11 rebounds in only 22 minutes off the bench, his third double-digit effort on the boards in a span of four games. His role may increase after starting forward Kyle Anderson was lost to a sprained ankle. Green (10.7 & 6.8) is averaging 15 points and six rebounds in 22.5 minutes in two games against the Rockets this season, shooting 76.9 percent overall. Houston had excelled during a grueling 15-game stretch, going 12-3 from Dec 11 thru Jan 9 against mostly quality foes. The Rockets were seeking to avoid a letdown during a four-game respite against struggling opposition. Houston had no trouble in beating the Cavs 141-113 but they then fell apart down the stretch vs the Magic (Orlando closed on a 20-6 run). Now its' Memphis and 21-23 Brooklyn, next.Harden checks in at 34.2-6.2-8.8 and center Clint Capela at 17.6 & 12.6 (he's averaging 21.2 points and 13 rebounds in Jan). this month. Austin Rivers (13.4) scored a season-high 25 points on 10-of-14 shooting Sunday, making his seventh straight start while fellow guards Chris Paul and Eric Gordon are sidelined. Veteran Gerald Green (8.7) is averaging 13.8 PPG in the seven games that Gordon has missed. My first thought was to play Houston, as the Rockets are 11-1 SU at home since a Nov 28 loss to Dallas (lone defeat was against the 30-12 Bucks). However, this low over/under number has me playing the total. A "typical" Houston home game has averaged 225.8 PPG and during the Rockets' current 11-1 home run, Houston has averaged a whopping 119.3 points! Sure, Memphis ranks first in points allowed (102.7 per) and just 29th in scoring (101.0 per) but the last time the Grizzlies visited Houston, the Rockets won 113-101 (that would work here!). This total opened 203 and while it has jumped a few points, this one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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01-13-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4 | 113-116 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Den Nuggets at 8:05 ET. The Portland Trail Blazers will try to register their first five-game winning streak of the season when they begin a two-game road trip on Sunday against the West-leading Denver Nuggets. Portland dropped the opener of a five-game homestand 111-109 to OKC, but has since rolled to four consecutive victories (including a 127-96 triumph over Charlotte on Friday), to match its longest winning streak of 2018-19. Denver will be kicking off a four-game homestand with this contest and although the Nuggets are 18-4 since Nov 21, they come in on a sour note after suffering a 102-93 loss at lowly Phoenix on Saturday (Suns are 11-33, the worst record of any team in the West). CJ McCollum scored 30 points and Damian Lillard added 20 on Friday for Portland. That duo has led teh way all season, as Lillard averages 25.8-4.5-6.1 and McCollum 21.1 PPG. Center Jusuf Nurkic put forth a dominant all-around effort in Friday's win by producing 11 points, 11 rebounds, eight rebounds and six blocked shots as he continued his recent tear. Nurkic (15.2 & 10.4) is averaging 20 points and 12.2 rebounds this month. He leads the team with 21 double-doubles. Nurkic will get a real test up against Denver center Nikola Jokic, who leads the team in scoring (19.2), rebounding (10.2) and assists (7.5).T he Nuggets own the West's best record (28-13) because of their depth. Nuggets have won 11 of their last 15 and have gone 18-6 since Nov 19 surviving injuries to Will Barton, Paul Millsap and Gary Harris to go Harris (16.0) played in the club's first four games this month after missing the last 11 in December with a hip injury, but he's now sat out three in a row due to a hamstring issue. Fellow guard Jamal Murray checks in right behind Jokic, averaging 18.3 PPG. PF Millsap (12.9 & 6.9) has been back for eight games from his injury plus swingman Barton (15.7-5.0-4.1 last year) played Saturday night. It was his first game after missing 36 straight and he scored six points off the bench in his return. He didn't mind, he was happy to be playing and even happier the team was 26-12 without him. Portland is a so-so 8-10 on the road (allowing 113.7 PPG) and has lost four straight meetings with Denver. The Nuggets are 17-3 at Pepsi Center this season (14-6 ATS while outscoring opponents 113.2-to-101.6 PPG) and currently own an 11-game home winning streak (9-2 ATS). The edge here is Denver's depth, as outside of the above-named players, the Nuggets have five more players averaging between 7.4 and 10.0 PPG. This price is 'cheap.' Good luck...Larry |
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01-12-19 | Spurs v. Thunder -5 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the OKC Thunder at 8:05 ET. The Oklahoma City Thunder will get a chance to redeem themselves quickly, after suffering a crushing double-overtime loss in San Antonio on Thursday. Thursday's meeting was an "instant classic," as San Antonio's LaMarcus Aldridge scored a career-high 56 points on 20-of-33 shooting while adding nine rebounds and four blocks to lead his team to a 154-147 victory. FYI... Aldridge wasn't the only player making history on Thursday, as Russell Westbrook recorded 24 points, a career-high 24 assists and 13 rebounds to mark the second 20-10-20 game of his career. Westbrook is the only player besides Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson to post multiple 20-10-20 games (not bad company). San Antonio had shot 36.1 percent from the floor, including 11-of-27 from three-point range, in a 96-86 loss at Memphis on Wednesday but the very next night at OKC, made 16-of-19 from three-point range, setting an NBA record for the highest percentage (84.2) by a team with at least 15 attempts from beyond the arc. Spurs PG Derrick White scored a career-high 23 points on 10-of-17 shooting on Friday. However, White averages 8.5 PPG and 3.5 APG on the season. DeMar DeRozan (22.2-6.2-6.5) and Aldridge (20.7 & 8.6) lead the nightly charge for San Antonio but as always with a Pop-coached team, "the whole is always greater than the sum of its parts." Westbrook is again averaging a triple-double (21.3-10.8-10.7) but Paul George (26.9 & 8.) is the team's leading scorer. Center Adams (15.4 & 10.1) is having a very good year , as his backup PG Schroder (15.2 & 4.4 APG) and PF Grant (12.6 & 5.0). Let's also note that the Thunder's Terrance Ferguson was forced into the starting lineup thanks to the prolonged injury of Andre Roberson and has been a top-flight defender all year but has struggled on offense (5.2 PPG). Ferguson was shooting just 30.2 percent from behind the three-point line before going 11 of 14 in the last two games, including 7 of 10 in the loss at San Antonio (he's scored 35 points in his last two games). Yes, the Spurs have learned to be an excellent team with a new "cast of characters" but San Antonio has not been a good road team (7-13 SU on the season, including 3-6 in its last nine). I have to believe the Thunder can't wait to avenge that double-OT loss from Thursday here at Chesapeake Energy Arena. I will NOT ignore the fact that OKC is 16-4 SU and 15-5 ATS at home vs San Antonio since the Spurs beat the Thunder in their playoff tussle in the Conference Finals in 2012 Good luck...Larry |
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01-11-19 | Hornets v. Blazers -6.5 | Top | 96-127 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET. The 19-21 Charlotte Hornets will visit the Moda Center Friday night to take on the 25-17 Portland Trail Blazers. Since mid-December, the Hornets are 5-8 (4-9 ATS), while the Blazers are 10-4 (8-6 ATS). Charlotte's visit to the Pacific Northwest is the fourth stop on a six-game trip for a team that has dropped six of its last nine games. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers have won five of their past six games and they shot 56.6 percent from the floor in Wednesday's 124-112 home win over the Chicago Bulls. Starting shooting guard Jeremy Lamb (hamstring) returned to the lineup for teh Hornets in Tuesday's 128-109 in LA to teh Clippers, after a two-game absence. Lamb (15.3 & 5.6) recorded 16 points and six rebounds in 29 minutes and he's an important cog. "He looked solid. He looked healthy," Charlotte head coach James Borrego told reporters afterward. "I didn't feel like he was limited at all. He had a good performance and I think we've got him back in the mix now." Backup shooting guard Malik Monk (10.8) scored 24 points against the Clippers for his fifth 20-point effort of the season.However, the problem for Charlotte all season has been the lack of consistent scoring other than PG Kemba Walker (25.1-4.3-5.8). The Blazers own a dynamic backcourt duo in Lillard (25.9-4.5-6.1) and McCollum (20.9) but it isn't going unnoticed just how well center Nurkic continues to play. He's averaging 15.3 & 10.4, while shooting 51.1% from the floor. Portland has at least 25 assists in a season-best four consecutive games, after producing 28 in its 12-point win against the Bulls The Moda Center in Portland has been a 'house of horrors' for teh Hornets for a decade. as the Blazers have won 10 in a row (9-1 ATS) when hosting the Hornets. The Trail Blazers are 22-6 at home versus the Hornet, all-time. Not much changes tonight. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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01-10-19 | Clippers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 100-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. The Denver Nuggets went 46-36 last season, the franchise's first winning season since 2012-13 (George Karl's final year). However, the Nuggets failed to make the postseason last year, for the fifth consecutive season. Therefore, it's impossible NOT be surprised that the Nuggets own the West's best record at the mid-point of the current season rapidly approaches, at 27-12. Denver welcomes the LA Clippers to Pepsi Center tonight, a team which sports a 24-16 record and comes in having won seven of its last 10, after a three-game winning streak. Los Angeles claimed a 128-109 home win over the Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday and has won by double digits in each of its last three wins. Sixth-man Lou Williams (18.5 & 4.9 APG) had 27 points and 10 assists for his third double-double of the season, one of four Clippers to score 20 or more points. Leading the way offensively is PF Tobias Harris, who was acquired in the Griffin trade. He is averaging 21.1 & 8.0 on the season. The team's No. 2 scorer is former Denver standout Danilo Gallinari (19.5 & 6.2). LA ranks fourth in the NBA by averaging 116.0 PPG. Denver claimed a 103-99 road win over the Miami Heat on Tuesday, as center Nikola Jokic had 29 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists for his fourth triple-double of the season . He leads the team in scoring (19.2), rebounding (10.1) and assists). "Hell of a win," Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told reporters afterward of a victory that came on the second end of a back-to-back that began with a 125-113 loss to the Houston Rockets. Jamal Murray (18.4) is the team's second-leading and the Nuggets are hoping gaurd Gary Harris (16.0) and PF Paul Millsap (13.2 & 6.7) stay healthy. Millsap has been back for six straight but Harris, after playing three straight, was out vs Miami with a hamstring issue and is not expected to play tonight. These teams split two meetings in Los Angeles earlier this season but in the most recent game, Denver was routed 132-11 by Clippers at Staples on Dec 22. Anyone really think that LA will hit 57% from floor (including 10 of-20 on threes) on the road, like the Clippers in that late-December romp at home? Note that Denver, never known for its defense, is showing a different side this season, allowing just 105.5 PPG (4th-best). The Nuggets are 16-3 at Pepsi Center, outscoring opponents 112.8-to-101.7. Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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01-08-19 | Wolves v. Thunder -8 | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner i on the OKC Thunder at 8:05 ET. The Minnesota Timberwolves fired head coach and president of basketball operations Tom Thibodeau on Sunday, after he led the team to a 108-86 win over the Los Angeles Lakers. The T-wolves never "came together" under Thibodeau, as the drama surrounding Jimmy Butler before his Nov 12 trade to Philadelphia, and dropping six of seven games during one stretch in December, eventually cost him his job. "We've gone ... halfway through the season, and I don't think we're where we thought we would be, or where we think we should be," Minnesota owner Glen Taylor told the Minneapolis Star Tribune. "We still have hopes to get into the playoffs, and I think with half the season left, let's see if this change will make a difference." The Thunder aren't dealing with that sort of organizational upheaval but will need to bounce back after a shocking 116-98 loss to the Washington Wizards at home on Sunday. "We did well on the road, we had some big games that we won and just one of those nights you come home and you see an opponent like the Wizards ... you just fall into that trap," Oklahoma City forward Paul George told reporters. The 19-21 T-wolves named assistant Ryan Saunders (son of former coach Flip Saunders) as the interim coach, while GM Scott Layden will take over some of Thibodeau's front office responsibilities. The Timberwolves are winners of back-to-back games and five of their last eight but this team is two games under .500, coming off a 47-35 season. Minnesota is the very definition of average, scoring 111.4 PPG (14th) and allowing 110.8 PPG (17th). OKC was a 10-point favorite over the Wizards on Sunday and while Russell Westbrook posted his third triple-double in the last four games with 22 points, 15 rebounds and 13 assists, he committed eight of the team's 15 turnovers in the surprising 18-point loss. George added 20 points in the loss, his the 14th straight game in which he scored 20 or more. George (26.8-8.0-4.0) leads the team in scoring, while Westbrook (21.1-11.0-10.1) is again averaging a triple-double. However, notable this season is the solid play of backup PG Schroder (15.2), center Adams (15.2 & 10.2) and PF Grant (12.4 & 4.8) plus the fact that OKC is now one of the league's better defensive teams (105.8 PPG ranks 5th). OKC opened the season 0-4 but now sits 25-14. The Thunder are 13-5 SU at home, while the T-wolves are just 5-15 SU on the road, Expect a VERY focused OKC team here, as not only are the Thunder coming off an embarrassing home toss to the troubled Wizards (Washington is just 16-24) but they HAVE to remember the fact that Minnesota earned a 114-112 win at Oklahoma City on Dec 23, behind 30 points from Andrew Wiggins. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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01-07-19 | Jazz v. Bucks -5.5 | 102-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Mil Bucks at 8:05 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks had a five-game winning streak come to an end with a 123-116 home loss to the Toronto Raptors on Saturday (Bucks were also 5-0 ATS in that run), missing out on a chance to establish themselves as the top team in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee took the first four games of its homestand by an average of 21.3 points and held a double-digit lead in the first half against Toronto before falling. The Bucks wrap-up their six-game homestand Monday night, when the Utah Jazz visit the Fiserv Forum. The Jazz fell at Toronto to begin their four-game road trip but followed that with wins over Cleveland and Detroit to reach .500 at 20-20. Utah has dominated Milwaukee since the middle of last decade, winning 21 of the last 26 meetings between the two clubs. Donovan Mitchell (20.2) scored 24 of his 26 points in the second half of Saturday's 110-105 victory in Detroit. It marked Mitchell's 20th, 20-point outing of the season. Center Rudy Gobert (14.9 & 12.2), PG Rubio (12.9 & 6.3 APG), SF Ingles (11.8-4.0-4.6) and PF Favors (11.2 & 7.0) give the Jazz a solid starting-five. Sixth-man Crowder (12.3 & 4.7) is also having a solid season plus the addition of Korver has been a good one, as the vet has averaged 8.9 PPG in 18 games, shooting 40.0% on threes. Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo (26.5-12.6-6.1 is clearly "the Man" in Milwaukee, although like the Jazz, Milwaukee has very good starting-five, Middleton (17.8-5.6-4.1), Bledsoe (15.4-4.,4-5.5), Brogdon (15.3-4.6-3.4) and Lopez (12.3 & 3.9) round out a group, with just three other Milwaukee players starting only a combined seven games! Antetokounmpo scored 43 points on 16-of-25 shooting and added 18 rebounds on Saturday while matching Toronto's physical play but it wasn't enough. I realize that Utah has dominated this series (see above for a reminder) but Milwaukee snapped a seven-game skid against Utah in last season's final meeting (117-100 home win) and this year's Milwaukee team has "turned a corner." Off a disappointing loss to Toronto, I expect the Bucks to bounce back in a big way. Milwaukee is the NBA's top-scoring team (117.1 PPG) and also owns the league's best defensive FG percentage against (43.3%). That's a sweet daily double. Also note that Milwaukee is 18-4 SU and 14-7-1 ATS at home, where the Bucks averaged 120.9 PPG. The price seems MORE than fair, Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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01-07-19 | Nuggets v. Rockets -1 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the Hou Rockets at 8:05 ET. The Houston Rockets had their six-game winning streak come to an end with Saturday's 110-101 loss at Portland, just the Rockets' second defeat in the team's last 13 games. Notably, James Harden's run of 40-point games came to an end at five straight, as he finished with "just" 38 points! However, he’s had at least 35 points and five assists in eight straight games, breaking an NBA record held by Oscar Robertson. The 22-16 Rockets welcome Denver to Houston Monday night, with the Nuggets arriving with a 26-11 record. That represents the West's top mark and Denver arrives on a five-game winning streak after a 123-110 victory over the Charlotte Hornets at Pepsi Center on Saturday. Denver's victory over Charlotte was the team's 10th consecutive home win (note: The Nuggets' previous home loss came on Nov 13 against the Rockets). The Nuggets are finding they have their own superstar in center Nikola Jokic, who scored a season-high 39 points on Saturday. He leads the team in scoring (18), rebounding (10.0) and in assists (7.5). Guard Jamal Murray was held to eight points on 3-of-13 shooting on Saturday but is the team's second-leading scorer at 18.5 PPG. Barton remains sidelined for Denver but head coach Michael Malone has gotten guard Gary Harris and PF Paul Millsap back. Both are being worked back into the rotation after missing nearly a month and three weeks, respectively. Harris (16.1) played his third straight game since returning against the Hornets and scored 17 points while adding six rebounds and five assists in 26 minutes. Millsap (13.4 & 6.7) has been back for four games, averaging 10.0 & 4.2. Houston knows all about playing through injuries, as well. PG Paul (15.6 & 8.0 APG) has missed the last seven games and backup guard Gordon (15.6) has missed the last three. Houston won six in a row without Paul, before Saturday's loss. Harden averaged 42.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 9.5 assists while shooting 41.9 percent on three-pointers over those first six games without Paul. Since Gordon has been out, recent addition Rivers has averaged 42 minutes and 17.0 points in starting three in a row, while swingman Green has chipped in 15.7 PPG over the last three. Backing Harden game in and game out is center Capela, who is having a career season (17.2 & 12.9), He's had 21 rebounds in each of his last two plus has topped 20 rebounds in FOUR of his last seven games. No way I'll buck the Rockets here, as since losing 128-108 at home to Dallas on Nov 28, Houston is 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS at home.Yes, Denver has the West's best record and comes in on a five-game winning streak, but the Nuggets last four wins have come over 9-32 Phoenix, 10-29 New York, 19-20 Sacramento and 19-20 Charlotte. Harden leads Houston to yet another home win, with ease! Good luck...Larry |
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01-06-19 | Heat -6 v. Hawks | 82-106 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Mia Heat at 6:05 ET. The 19-18 Miami Heat will visit Atlanta to take on the 11-27 Hawks. However, while the Hawks are one of just five NBA teams with a winning percentage of under .300 (.289), TWO of Atlanta's 11 wins this season have come over Miami. The Hawks won 123-118 on Nov 3 in Atlanta and then took a 115-113 nail-biter on Nov. 27 in Miami. Miami squandered a pair of opportunities to move above .500 since Christmas but finally accomplished the feat by earning a win at Cleveland on Wednesday and then knocking off the Washington Wizards 115-109 at home on Friday. The Heat have won three of their last five, which came on the heels of five-game winning streak. Miami is without PG Goran Dragic (15.3 & 4.9 APG), who had knee surgery and will be out until the All-Star break. However, Miami has won eight of its last 10 games with the bulk of that damage coming with small forward Justise Winslow serving as the team's point guard. Winslow collected 13 points and 10 assists in Friday's triumph, his sixth straight game scoring in double figures (he's now averaging 11.6-5.2-4.0 on the season). Josh Richardson (18.5) is the team's leading score but even with Dragic, Miami has 10 players averaging between 7.7 and 18.5 PPG. Center Whiteside is almost an automatic double-double nightly, averaging 13.1 & 13.0. The Hawks were swept on a three-game road trip, capped by a 144-112 loss at Milwaukee on Friday. Atlanta was never in the game on Friday, after falling behind 43-14 at the end of the first quarter. However, the Hawks continue to develop their young roster and placed seven scorers in double figures in the loss. Rookie point guard Trae Young collected 13 points and 10 assists for his fifth double-double in the last 12 games (he's averaging 15.3 & 7.5 APG on the season). Third-year small forward DeAndre' Bembry scored a team-high 19 points off the bench while scoring in double figures for the third time in four games (he's averaging 8.3 & 4.3). Second-year 6-10 power forward John Collins (Wake Forest) is one of 17 NBA players averaging a double-double at 18.5 points and 10.2 rebounds (he was a draft 'steal!'). Have to believe that Miami has to be "fairly motivated and embarrassed," after losing the first two meetings this season to Atlanta. Note that Miami is a MONEY-MAKING 12-5 ATS (71%) on the road this season and Atlanta is the nBA's worst defensive team, allowing 118.5 PPG. I'm taking the road favorite. Good luck...Larry |
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01-05-19 | Warriors -7.5 v. Kings | 127-123 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the GS Warriors at 10:05 ET. It's become obvious that the 2018-19 Golden St Warriors are NOT the same team we've seen win THREE of the last four NBA titles. There are plenty of examples but NONE are better than the Warriors' Thursday night home loss to Houston. The Warriors held a 20-point lead over the Rockets but would go on to lose 135-134 in OT. Golden State's three-game home losing streak matches its longest in the Steve Kerr era, which spans four seasons in which the team advanced to the NBA Finals each time. The Warriors travel to Sacramento Saturday night to face the Kings. The Kings are in their own slump with losses in three straight to fall to 19-19 but the franchise hasn't had a winning season (or made the playoffs) since the 2005-06 season, so 19-19 looks pretty good to long-suffering Sacramento fans (Kings won just 27 games last year!). "I do feel we did," shooting guard Klay Thompson told reporters when asked if Golden State gave the game away. "I don't think we played with that killer instinct in that second half. I think we relaxed being up."but Thursday's loss was 'ugly' but Golden St players are confident they will find their form. "I'm not sure but we'll stay the course and get back to doing what we do," Thompson told reporters. "It's a different year than it has in the past. Although we are not blowing teams out, we are still 11 games above .500 with a chance to go on a run here before All-Star break. It's not the end of the world." The Warriors are still waiting for center DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) to make his season debut. Is that good or bad news? Sacramento's morphing into a competitive team is being led by the backcourt duo of Buddy Hield and De'Aaron Fox, who combined for 45 points on 19-of-29 shooting in Thursday's setback. Hield scored a team-high 29 points, giving him three straight 20-plus performances (Hield leads the team by averaging 20.2 PPG). PG Fox added eight assists in Thursday's setback and is averaging 18.1 points and 7.6 assists in just his second season. However, it's not good news that the Kings almost surely will once again be without standout rookie Marvin Bagley III (12.7 & 6.1), who has missed the Kings' last 10 games with a bruised left knee. All of a sudden, these Northern California rivals split their four-game season series last year, each winning twice on the opponent's home floor. iIsay that because the Warriors had won 15 of 16 meetings dating back to the start of the 2014 season. Golden State has taken the first two meetings this season but by a total of just six points. Sacramento , comes on a three-game slide, losing by seven, five (in overtime) and four points. It's troubling because the Kings led the Lakers entering the fourth period on Sunday, were up nine with three minutes left against Portland in the overtime loss on Tuesday and had a 13-point halftime advantage over Denver on Thursday. t won't be a cakewalk but expect the Warriors to pull away for a comfortable win. Good luck...Larry |
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01-05-19 | Rockets v. Blazers OVER 216.5 | Top | 101-110 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Total of the Week is on Hou/Por Over at 10:05 ET. Portland fell 111-109 at home to the Thunder just last night and if it looks to avoid back-to-back losses, it’s going to have to have a “short memory” here facing the red hot Rockets, who come to the Pacific Northwest on a six-game win skein and with 11 wins in their last 12 outings, including a 135-134 overtime thriller at Golden State on Wednesday Houston rallied from a 20-point deficit in the third quarter to beat the Warriors. .Houston is still without Chris Paul, but the team is now finally firing on all cylinders after a slow start to the season. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 33.6 points and is riding a streak of five consecutive 40-point games, matching a feat accomplished only by Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson and Kobe Bryant in the past 50 years. Center Clint Capela is having a career season, averaging 17.2 points and 12.7 boards. The Blazers have been scuffling of late, going just 4-5 in their last nine after last night’s setback. The guard duo of Damian Lillard (26.6-4.6-5.8) and CJ McColum (21.1) lead the way, while Nurkic (14.9 & 10.4) continues to prove he's a quality NBA center. From a “situational” stand point, I think it sets up as a higher-scoring affair. Clearly the Rockets will be out to push the pace as they try to take advantage of a tired Blazers team. Portland figures to have to match Houston's pace, which point to a “shootout." This number is a little low, play the “over.” Good luck...Larry |
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01-04-19 | Thunder v. Blazers +1 | Top | 111-109 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Por Trail Blazers at 10:35 ET. The Oklahoma City Thunder opened the season 0-4 but as they visit Moda Center tonight in Portland, OKC sports a 24-13 record, the West's second-best record. The Thunder have won seven of their last 10 games and face a Portland team that has also won seven of 10, leaving them 22-16 on the season (currently own the West's No. 5 seed). The Trail Blazers won all four of last season's meetings and tonight, OKC will be looking to end an eight-game losing streak in Portland. Paul George scored 37 points in Wednesday's 107-100 road victory over the Los Angeles Lakers and has now topped 20 points in each of his last 12 games, averaging 32.1 points during the stretch. George leads OKC in scoring on the season at 26.7 PPG. Former MVP Russell Westbrook has been in a shooting slump all season, making 41.6 percent from the floor, only 23.6 percent from three-point range and shooting just 62.6 percent from the free-throw line. However, in the Thunder's 107-100 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers Wednesday night at Staples Center, Westbrook totaled 14 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists, despite going 3-for-20. He became the first player in the NBA in 32 years to notch a triple-double while shooting 15 percent or lower. Westbrook is again averaging a triple-double on the season (20.7-10.9-10.4). OKC ranks 4th in points allowed (105.4 per) and No. 1 in defensive efficiency but will have its hands full with Portland. The Blazers are led by the outstanding guard tandem of Lillard (26.7-4.8-5.8) and McCollum (21.1) plus center Nurkic (14.7 & 10.5) collected a career-best 23 rebounds in the team's Jan 1 victory over Sacramento. He also had 24 points, seven assists, five blocked shots and five steals. Nurkic is averaging 21.5 points, 13 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.8 steals while shooting 56.6 percent from the floor in the team's last four games (3-1). Let me add that the 6-9 PG Aminu is quietly averaging 9.4 & 8.0. Portland is 14-6 SU at home (no need to cover with this line), where it averages 114.0 PPG. How does one ignore the fact that the Blazers won all FOUR of last year's meetings (by an average of 6.5 PPG) or that the Blazers have won SIX straight overall against the Thunder OR that the Thunder haven't tasted victory in Portland since Feb 11, 2014? Good luck...Larry |
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01-03-19 | Raptors v. Spurs -1.5 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the SA Spurs at 8:05 ET. The 28-11 Toronto Raptors will take the NBA's second-best record into this TNT showdown with the 21-17 San Antonio Spurs. Toronto has owned the NBA's best record for most of the season but just recently, the 26-10 Milwaukee Bucks have caught and passed them (.722 to .718). However, Toronto's 13-7 road mark is an NBA-best but the Raptors come to San Antonio with the Spurs playing their beat basketball of the season, having won 10 of 13. Then again, all of the above will take a backseat to Kawhi Leonard making his highly-anticipated return to San Antonio. Leonard was once a beloved figure and NBA Finals MVP for the Spurs but returns as a villain after last season's falling out with the franchise, following seven seasons and the subsequent trade to Toronto. Leonard played in just nine games for San Antonio last season due to a quadriceps injury and the difference in opinions over the treatment options partially resulted in the gulf that couldn't be resolved. Leonard has sure put his injuries (?) behind him with Toronto, averaging 27.3 & 8.2. He has missed nine of 39 games this season but he's been in standout form of late, with a career-best streak of 14 straight 20-point outings, including a career-high 45-point effort Jan 1 vs Utah. Pascal Siakam (14.9 & 6.6) had a career-best 28 points with 10 rebounds in the win over the Jazz. However, All-Star PG Kyle Lowry (14.4-4.5-9.8) didn't play for the eighth time in nine games because of a sore back (not expected to play here) and center Jonas Valanciunas (12.8 & 7.2). The Spurs are on a 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS run, as they welcome the Raptors to AT&T Center. Leonard's return overshadowed everything but don't forget, DeMar DeRozan felt misled when he was shipped from Toronto to San Antonio after nine seasons in Canada. DeRozan, along with center Jakob Poeltl, were moved to the Spurs from Toronto in the trade that sent Leonard to the Raptors. DeRozan, after some early reservations about the trade, has settled in to become San Antonio's leading scorer (22.9-5.2-5.9). Aldridge (19.8 & 9.0) has been a steady force plus as always with a Pop-coached team, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The Spurs are 15-5 SU and 14-6 ATS at home and owns a 32-12 all-time mark against Toronto including a 18-4 record at home, which includes a current run of NINE straight wins at home over Toronto. For tonight, it's DeRozan over Leonard. Good luck...Larry |
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01-01-19 | Blazers v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Sac Kings at 9:05 ET. It's no surprise that the Portland Blazers sit 21-16 as the calendar turns to 2019, as the team has been to the postseason in each of the last five years and is coming off a 49-win season. However, it is a surprise to see the Sacramento Kings at 19-17, as the franchise hasn't been to the postseason (or made the playoffs) since the 2005-06 season (Kings won just 27 games last year!). The teams meet for the first time this season on Tuesday night at Golden 1 Center, with both coming off home-and-home series in the past week. The Trail Blazers won 110-109 at Golden State on Thursday, before the two-time defending champs turned the tables in a 115-105 victory in the rematch at Portland on Saturday. However, Portland responded with one of its most impressive efforts of the season, a 129-95 rout of the Philadelphia 76ers at home on Sunday night. The "big news" in the win was CJ McCollum (21.2) scoring 35 points on 13-of-18 shooting. He had entered the game having shot just 38.7 percent overall and 22.5 percent on three-pointers while averaging 16.9 points in his previous eight outings. Mccollum is joined in the backcourt by Lillard, who checks in at 26.8-4.7-5.8. The duo is the third-highest scoring backcourt tandem in the NBA. Center Jusuf Nurkic (14.5 & 10.1) has put together three straight strong efforts and is averaging 20.7 points on 25-of-43 shooting and 9.7 rebounds during the stretch. While the Blazers were dealing with the Warriors, the Kings were dueling the LA Lakers. They won 117-116 at home on Thursday but then lost 121-114 in the rematch on Sunday at Staples Center. Thursday's win improved the Kings to a season-best-tying three games over .500 at 19-16. PG De'Aaron Fox scored 26 points on Sunday, marking his sixth effort of 25 or more points in the past 13 games. Fox is a big reason why the improving Kings are two games above .500, averaging 18.2 PPG and 7.7 APG. SG Buddy Hield enters the new year in a shooting slump, having totaled just 38 points in his last three games on 13-for-43 shooting overall and 4-for-19 on threes but he is having a very good season (19.7 PPG). These teams have similar records but while Portland has been the "more reliable" squad for quite some time now, current form favors Sacramento.Portland comes in just 8-16 ATS since mid-November, including 3-10 ATS on the road. Portland has been on a 'rollercoaster ride' since Christmas. The Blazers lost Dec 25 at Utah (117-96) but followed with a 110-109 OT win at Golden St. Golden St then won the rematch 115-105 in Portland, before the Blazers routed the 76ers the next night. In contrast, Sacramento has won FIVE of its last seven at home, falling to only OKC and Golden St (a game the Kings covered). Expect the Kings to 'catch' the Blazers on a down stroke here and win handily. Good luck...Larry |
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12-30-18 | Wolves v. Heat -3.5 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mia Heat at 6:05 ET. Will the Minnesota Timberwolves ever "get it together? The T-wolves suffered a 123-120 overtime loss at home to the lowly Atlanta Hawks on Friday and got booed as they left the court. Minnesota went 21-of-38 from the free-throw line in Friday's loss, with swingman Andrew Wiggins missing seven of his 12 attempts and drawing the most scorn from the home fans.The 16-19 T-wolves open a three-game road trip by visiting the 17-17 Miami Heat on Sunday. The Heat have climbed to .500 by winning SIX of their last seven, after rolling over the Cleveland Cavaliers 118-94 on Friday. Karl-Anthony Towns (24.2 & 11.8) had 31 points, 19 rebounds, five assists and three blocks on Friday but was not happy that the team fell into a big hole in the first half. "An edge, we didn't play with no edge," Towns told reporters. Heading to Miami, the Timberwolves could be without their top-two PGs. Starter Jeff Teague (11.6 & 8.3 APG) is out until mid-January with an ankle issue and backup Derrick Rose (18.9 & 4.8 APG) sprained his right ankle on the final play of regulation in the loss to Atlanta. He's questionable. Meanwhile, the Heat are without 2018 All-Star PG Goran Dragic (15.3-3.1-4.9), who hasn't played since Dec 10 and is expected to miss several more weeks after knee surgery. In his absence, the Heat have found a surprising answer in SF Justise Winslow (11.6-5.2-3.7), who had never played point guard before this month. Miami is 5-1 since it started using Winslow at the point and Winslow is coming off one of the best games of his career in Friday's 118-94 win (24-11-7). Winslow is teaming with SG Richardson, who leads Miami with 18.4 PPG. Minnesota has had its problems with the matchups in recent years against Miami (1-7 ATS the last eight games) and a big reason is the presence of center Hassan Whiteside (13.2 & 12.8), who gives Karl-Anthony Towns fits. The Timberwolves have dropped seven of their last 10 games overall and are just 4-13 SU on the road for the season (little margin here for a cover, without a win). Meanwhile, Miami has gone 6-1 ATS at American Airlines Arena its last seven, plus has gone 10-1 ATS is last 11, overall. Miami is the bet! Good luck...Larry |
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12-29-18 | Warriors -3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* signature 35-Club Play is on the GS Warriors at 10:05 ET. The Warriors visit Portland's Moda center tonight, after losing 110-109 in OT just two night ago to the Blazers, in Oakland. Damian Lillard buried a three-pointer with 6.3 seconds left in overtime on Thursday, giving the Trail Blazers a one-point lead that would become the final score, when Kevin Durant missed a jumper at the other end. "That's a shot I work on every day," Durant told reporters. "I'm pissed I missed that." This contest is the back end of the home-and-home set. The 23-13 Warriors enter having lost back-to-back games for the second time this season plus lost FOUR in a row from Nov 15-21. Clearly, this year's team is not playing like the team which has won THREE titles in the last four seasons, including B2B the last two years. KD averages 28.7-7.8-6.3, Curry 28.6-5.0-5.2 and Thompson 20.9 PPG. Green's rebounding and assist numbers are similar to the last four seasons but his scoring is down about four PPG. More troubling, he's "had his moments" being a disruptor for the Warriors, not their opponents. Portland relies heavily on its guard tandem of Lillard (26.7-4.7-5.8) and McCollum (21.0), plus center Nurkic (14.3 & 10.2). Nurkic collected 27 points on 10-of-18 shooting and 12 rebounds on Thursday, as he took advantage of a Warriors team lacking a true center. Still, Portland's overall depth keeps them from being a serious contender for the NBA title. Obviously, despite their struggles this season, the Warriors still have to be the favorite to win another title. Listen to Curry after Thursday's loss. "It was just kind of stagnant in the first half," the Warriors star told reporters. "Not a lot of thrust and energy and aggressiveness. Defensively we were OK after the first three or four minutes. Other games it's been indecisiveness in certain stretches of the game. We're getting teams best shots, so we got to fight our way through it. And just claw and scratch and get to that 48-minute level that we dominate teams, and we can get there." Note that the Warriors almost won Thursday night, despite making just 13 of 44 three-pointers (29.5%) and attempting only 15 FTs, while making only SIX (40%). Golden St shoots 48.0% from the floor on the season (ranks 1st), makes 37.6% on three-pointers (4th) and 82.1% on FTs (1st). This one will NOT come down to the wire! Good luck...Larry |
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12-28-18 | Spurs v. Nuggets -3.5 | Top | 99-102 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. The 21-11 Denver Nuggets welcome the 19-16 San Antonio Spurs to Pepsi Center tonight. The Nuggets own the West's best record, just percentage points better than the two-time defending champion Warriors (.656 to .639). However, while the Spurs are currently on the outside-looking-in on the Western Conference playoff field, they come in the hotter team. The Spurs seek their ninth win in their last 11 games, with one of the team's eight wins over its last 10 coming 111-103 over the Nuggets in San Antonio, just this past Wednesday. Tonight's contest completes a home-and-home between the teams The Spurs have scored at least 110 points in all eight wins during their 10-game stretch, seemingly putting a sluggish start to the season in the rear-view mirror. SG DeRozan (23.3-5.7-6.2) and PF Aldridge (18.9 & 9.1) have been the team's two "go-to" players. However, as with all Popovich teams, the whole is always greater than the sum of its parts. Center Nikola Jokic is the team leder in points (17.7), rebounds (9.8) and assist (7.3) but was a non-factor on Wednesday, scoring just FOUR four points on 1-of-5 shooting, while collecting only FOUR rebounds in 31 minutes. The loss was Denver's fourth in a row on the road, as the strain of missing three starters seems to be taking a toll. Swingman Will Barton has missed nine weeks after core muscle surgery, SG Gary Harris (16.6) has been out eight games with a hip injury and PF Paul Millsap (13.6 & 7.0) has missed seven with a broken toe. However, despite missing the above-mentioned three starters and with Jokic "way off his game" Wednesday night in San Antonio, Denver still had an 80-79 lead with 10 minutes remaining. Then, the Spurs went on a 15-0 spurt and went on a 23-4 run to put the Nuggets away. Juancho Hernangomez tied a career high with 27 points and grabbed 13 rebounds for Denver, while Malik Beasley added 22 points and Monte Morris had 15, both off the bench. Denver takes a 7-0 SU & ATS home winning streak into this Pepsi Center contest, where the Nuggets have gone 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS on the season. In this quick turnaround, revenge works! Good luck…Larry |
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12-28-18 | Nets v. Hornets -4.5 | 87-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Cha Hornets at 7:05 ET. The Charlotte Hornets and Brooklyn Nets played a two-overtime thriller on Wednesday, one in which the Nets escaped with a 134-132 victory. The contest featured featured a number of several big shots but also, just as many key miscues. Brooklyn's Spencer Dinwiddie highlighted a 37-point performance with a four-point play in the second OT extra and Joe Harris added 27 for the victors. Kemba Walker scored 35 points and Jeremy Lamb 31 for the Hornets but Malik Monk's turnover in the closing seconds of the game led to a layup on the other end for Harris and left the Hornets 0-4 in OT games this season. Brooklyn's Caris LeVert was having a breakout season, with seven 20-point games already -- matching the total from his first two full seasons in the NBA. He was averaging 18.4 PPG (it still leads the team), posting career-best averages in scoring, rebounds (4.3) and assists (3.7), along with a career-high shooting percentage of 47.5 from the floor. However, he was wheeled off the court back on Nov 12 in Minnesota. There's no timetable for LeVert's return but the Nets say his coming back at some point this season is the expectation. The Nets won two of their next three without LeVert, but then lost EIGHT in a row. However, they've now gone 9-1 (8-2 ATS) over their last 10. Dinwiddie's star continues to shine brighter as he posted his fourth game of at least 30 points off the bench -- tying the team record for one season -- while recording a season-high 11 assists in Wednesday's win. He's averaging 18.1 & 5.2 APG. Starting PG Russell is right behind him, averaging 17.5 & 6.2 APG. SF Harris (13.7 PPG) was 11-of-14 from the floor and 5-of-8 from three-point range, establishing a new team mark for most consecutive home games (32) with at least one make from beyond the arc. 6-11 center Allen (11.8 & 8.2) and SF Hollis-Jefferson (10.5 & 6.1) are also solid contributors. Like they did Wednesday night (see above), Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb have led the Hornets all season. Walker owns career highs in points (25.2), rebounding (4.4) and assists (6.2), while Lamb averages 15.4 & 5.7. However, only Monk (10.6) scores in double digits among the remaining Charlotte players. Case in point, outside of Walker and Lamb, the rest of the Hornets combined to shoot 23-for-62 (37.1%) from the floor, including 8-for-29 (27.6%) from three-point range on Wednesday. All that said, I have to like the Hornets in this quick turnaround. Charlotte lost an eight-point lead in the final three-plus minutes of regulation Wednesday night, as the Nets over-played Walker. Then, Charlotte fouled DeMarre Carroll in the backcourt with 1.2 seconds left, up one. Carroll made just one free throw, sending the game to OT. To add insult to injury, Charlotte's Malik Monk fumbled the ball in the final seconds to Brooklyn's Joe Harris, who turned it into a tie-breaking layup. Expect Charlotte to "get things right," here. The Nets are NOT this good. Good luck…Larry |
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12-27-18 | 76ers v. Jazz -5 | 114-97 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
My 9* TNT Knockout is on the Ut Jazz at 10:35 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers began their five-game road trip with a 121-114 overtime loss at Boston on Christmas Day. Philly fell to just 6-10 SU (5-11 ATS) on the road this season but checks in at 22-13 overall, good for the East's No. 4 seed. Salt Lake City is the first stop in a four-game western road swing, as the Sixers will take on the 17-18 Utah Jazz, tonight. The Jazz are starting to find their form with wins in THREE of their last four games, including the team's 117-96 dominating Christmas Day performance over the Portland Trail Blazers. The Jazz will try to get back to .500 when they continue a four-game homestand tonight against the 76ers. Philly center enter Joel Embiid recorded his NBA-best 30th double-double, by scoring 34 points and collecting 16 rebounds in Tuesday's loss at Boston and is having a superb season (26.6 & 13.2). Philadelphia could not overcome 19 turnovers that led to 22 points for the Celtics. The Sixers do have key playmakers on the wing like Jimmy Butler (18.8-4.9-3.2) and Ben Simmons (16.0-9.3-7.9), as well as SG JJ Redick (18.1). However, head coach Brett Brown knows he needs to start getting more out of his bench. Philadelphia's starters scored 101 of the team's 114 points on Tuesday and Brown told reports afterwards that, "The fact that the starting five for the large majority of the game was excellent. I thought the spirit was great, the energy was great, but we need to continue to grow our bench, and to work with our starters to finish out the game." Utah held Portland to just 39.3 percent shooting on Tuesday in the 21-point romp. Have the Jazz finally reclaimed their identity as one of the NBA's elite defensive teams? Note that FIVE of the last nine Jazz opponents have failed to reach 100 points, as Utah is now allowing 105.6 PPG (5th-best). Center Rudy Gobert anchored the defensive effort on Tuesday with seven blocks, while adding 18 points (on 7-of-10 shooting) and 14 rebounds. It was his fifth straight double-double, as he checks in averaging 14.7 & 12.3 on the season. SG Donovan Mitchell (20.2) and PG Ricky Rubio (12.9 & 6.4 APG) join Gobert as Utah's "Big Three." Philadelphia swept the season series a year ago and back on Nov. 16 of this year, earned a 113-107 home win over Utah, behind 28 points and seven assists from Butler. The Sixers overcame 31 points from Donovan Mitchell and 66 points in the paint from Utah. In the rematch, I'm siding with the Jazz, who are finding their 'mojo.' Gobert, the reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year, notched a season-high seven blocked shots against the Blazers, while also registering his 29th double-double. The Jazz shot 55.4 percent from the floor against Portland plus overcame an 0-of-8 start from three-point range to make 13 of 21 from long distance in the final three quarters. Philly's road woes (see above) continue here in Salt Lake City. Good luck...Larry |
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12-27-18 | Celtics v. Rockets -118 | Top | 113-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
My 10*NBA Game of the Week is on the Hou Rockets at 8:05 ET. The Rockets won a league-high 65 games last season but opened the 2018-19 season by going 1-5 in October. However, even though Chris Paul is sidelined for a 2-4 weeks, it's becoming clear that Houston's slow start is in the rear-view mirror. Houston's 113-109 Christmas Day win over the Thunder gives the 18-15 Rockets SEVEN wins in their last eight games. The Rockets will try to finish off a perfect three-game homestand when they host the 20-13 Boston Celtics on Thursday. The Celtics are embarking on a three-game road trip having won 10 of their last 13 games (Boston is currently the East's No. 5 seed). Kyrie Irving had 40 points and 10 rebounds in Boston's 121-114 overtime victory over Philadelphia on Christmas Day. Irving (23.3-5.1-6.3) leads Boston on the season and is averaging 25.3 points while shooting 44.9 percent from three-point range in December. Speaking about Irving, head coach Brad Stevens told reporters, "I think it's - first of all, it's him. Secondly, it's a function of the one thing that I think we've gotten better at offensively over the last couple months - is spacing and early attack. And you know, he's a big reason why, obviously. But our bigs are doing a good job hunting guys in transition. We're playing with a little more tempo than we played with the first couple weeks." An issue is that Hayward (10.6 & 5.0) is NOT the same player he was before last year's season-ending injury. On a positive note, SFs Tatum (17.0 & 6.5) and Morris (15.1 & 6.3) have been excellent. Harden was a Christmas Day star, producing a career-best seventh consecutive 30-plus-point game in helping the Rockets to a 113-109 victory over OKC. Harden had 41 points, six rebounds, seven assists and two steals vs the Thunder. During Houston's eight-game stretch (7-1), Harden is averaging 38.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 2.3 steals. Center Clint Capela continued his career season by grabbing 23 rebounds on Tuesday, after grabbing 23 rebounds the game before in a loss to the Spurs. Capela is averaging career highs in points (17.1) and rebounds (12.5). Boston won eight in a row from Nov 26 thru Dec 14 but then dropped three straight. One of those losses was particularly worrisome, as the pathetic 9-26 Suns won in Boston 111-103 on Dec 19. Boston enters off back-to-back wins but I want NO part of going against the rejuvenated Rockets here at home. Good luck...Larry |
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12-26-18 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. The 2018-19 season opened Oct 16 and it seemed almost a given that the Golden St Warriors would win a THIRD straight NBA title, their fourth in five years. However, as the NBA moved past Christmas Day, it's the 21-10 Denver Nuggets who own the West's best record (the Warriors are second-best at 23-12). This is the same Nuggets team which last made the postseason back in the 2012-13 season, when Denver won 57 games. That season was Denver's 10th straight playoff appearance, so naturally it fired head coach George Karl, who had led them to NINE straight postseason berths. Anyway, the Nuggets will be in San Antonio Wednesday night to take on the 18-16 Spurs, who have won seven of their last nine games, although their last outing resulted in a 108-101 loss to the Houston Rockets on Saturday (note: Rockets have won SEVEN of eight). The Nuggets have been one of the NBA's best teams but they are coming off getting pounded 132-111 by the LA Clippers on Saturday, as the team's four-game winning streak came to an end. "From the get-go, we just weren't here," Denver head coach Michael Malone told reporters. "A lot of defensive breakdowns, not ready to play. Give them credit. We weren't ready. They were and they totally dominated us." The 21-point margin against the Clippers represented Denver's largest loss of the season. The Nuggets were dominated "up front," getting out-rebounded 56-37 and out-scored by a 80-50 margin in the paint. Denver center Nikola Jokic was ejected midway through the third quarter, finishing with 19 points, six rebounds and three assists in 21 minutes. He leads Denver in scoring (18.2) and rebounding (10.0). Jamal Murray (17.6) finished with 18 points, while Monte Morris added 15 points. Morris, the team's backup PG, is averaging 15.4 points on 32-of-53 shooting over the past five games. Shooting guard DeMar DeRozan (23.1-5.6-6.3) scored 28 points in the loss to the Rockets and it marked just his third 20-point outing in the past seven games. However, DeRozan has an outstanding 65-to-14 assists-to-turnover ratio over the last nine games, posting seven or more assists on seven occasions and one or no turnovers six times. Power forward LaMarcus Aldridge (18.6 & 9.3) is averaging just 14 points over the last two games, after scoring 20 or more in each of the previous four contests. Out of nowhere, the "new-look Spurs" are starting to resemble "the old Spurs." San Antonio had garnered each of its previous five victories by at least 25 points (only the second team in NBA history to claim that feat), before falling 108-101 on Saturday at Houston. The Spurs and Nuggets split their season series 2-2 in 2017-18, with the both teams winning on their home courts. This marks the first meeting of the season for the teams and note it's the first game of a home-and-home between the them (play Friday in Denver). The Spurs seek to capture their 12th consecutive home win over Denver, as the Nuggets haven't won in San Antonio since posting a 99-94 victory back on March 4, 2012. Want to buck taht trend here, knowing that Coach Pop’s team has had the NBA’s best offense and second-best defense over its current stretch? Not I. Good luck...Larry |
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12-26-18 | Hornets v. Nets -1.5 | 132-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Brk Nets at 7:35 ET. The date was Dec 5 and the venue was Barclays Center in Brooklyn. The Nets watched (seemingly helplessly) as the OKC Thunder overcame a 23-point deficit and won 114-112 on a buzzer-beater by Paul George. The Nets felt that they were close in most games during an eight-game losing streak but the bottom line was, Brooklyn sat 8-18, well on its way to FIFTH straight losing season. However, instead of being demoralized, the Nets became one of the league's hottest teams with SEVEN straight wins. They saw that steak end on Friday but bounced back Sunday win their EIGHTH win in nine games. Brooklyn (16-19) welcomes the 16-16 Charlotte Hornets to Barclays Center tonight, a team which lost 119-103 at Boston this past Sunday to fall back to .500, after having won five of seven to get back over .500 on the season. Charlotte had gone eight straight quarters without giving up 30 points before the Celtics piled up 39 in the second during Sunday's matchup. The Hornets are playing their second game in a stretch of 18 out of 27 on the road and are hoping to rebound from that sub-par showing Sunday in Boston. The Hornets shot 43.2 percent and allowed 50 percent shooting while getting out-rebounded 47-37 against the Celtics. PG Kemba Walker 24.8-4.3-6.2) is having a career season but note that SGs Lamb (14.9) and Monk (10.7) are the only other Charlotte players in double digits. The Nets rebounded nicely from Friday's 114-106 loss to the Pacers, beating the Suns, 111-103. Brooklyn led for the final 39-plus minutes, gained control by scoring 13 straight points in the third quarter and provided an answer when the Suns mounted a comeback attempt in the fourth. Spencer Dinwiddie (17.6-5.1 APG) continued his run of productivity off the bench by scoring 11 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter. It extended his streak to 28 straight games off the bench, the second-longest streak in team history. During this current streak, Dinwiddie is averaging 23 points on 50.4 percent shooting and 6.1 assists. D'Angelo Russell added 18 points and eight assists, and during Brooklyn's surge, is averaging 16.2 points and eight rebounds. Charlotte is at .500 for the 15th time this season and is 5-3 since losing three straight Nov 30-Dec 5. Charlotte took two of three meetings last season, including a 111-105 triumph in its one visit to Brooklyn. I'll also note that the Hornets are 9-2 in their last 11 meetings with the Nets since the start of the 2015-16 season. However, Brooklyn is "the play," here. This is the front end of a home-and-home set (teams play Friday night in Charlotte). The Nets head into the first of four meetings with the Hornets in ninth place, just a game behind Detroit for the last playoff spot. They are just 1 1/2 games behind Charlotte and Miami as well (the Nets can 'smell' a playoff spot). I will NOT ignore the Nets' current 8-1 SU run. Brooklyn’s offense was one of the NBA’s best during the team's seven-game winning streak, as its 117.6 points per 100 possessions ranked 3rd in the NBA over that span. "Break up the Nets!" Good luck...Larry |
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12-25-18 | Thunder v. Rockets -105 | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Christmas Crusher is on the Hou Rockets at 3:05 ET. The 21-11 OKC Thunder will be in Houston on Christmas Day to take on the 17-15 Rockets. The Thunder stumbled out of the blocks 0-4 but currently own the third-best record in the Western Conference. Houston, which won a league-best 65 games last season, will be looking for a seventh victory in its last eight games. A victory would move the Rockets a season-best three games over .500. OKC's "Mr Triple-Double" is at it again, as Westbrook checks in averaging 20.2-10.8-10.3. However, Paul George leads the team at 26.2 PPG, adding 8.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists. Schroder (16.2-3.8-4.5), Adams (16.1 & 10.0) and Grant (12.3 & 4.7) are double-digit contributors but no other Thunder players averages more than 5.6 points. Oklahoma City owns the best point differential (6.4) of all teams in the West. The Thunder allow 105.6 PPG (5th) but have the league's second-best defense (102.0 rating), while ranking fourth in rebounding percentage (52.0). Reigning MVP James Harden (32.0-5.7-8.4) leads the way for Houston plus center Clint Capela is averaging career highs in points (17.1) and rebounds (12.1). The bad news for Houston is, PG Chris Paul (17.1 & 8.4 APG) is expected to be sidelined between 2-4 weeks with a Grade-2 left hamstring strain. Houston management didn't stand pat though, signing free agent guard Austin Rivers (9.3 PPG over 437 career games with the Pelicans, Clippers and Wizards). The Rockets opted not to roll the dice by increasing the workload on guards James Harden and Eric Gordon. The Rockets have forged a turnaround lately, producing the fourth-best offensive rating (112.1) in the league this month. They improved to 7-4 in December with a 108-101 home victory over the San Antonio Spurs last Saturday, their first victory in six games this season with Paul sidelined. These teams met back on Nov 8 in OKC, with the Thunder winning, 98-90. It was a poorly played game, as the two teams combined to make 20 of 79 three-point attempts (25.3%). Both teams will shoot better here and I expect Harden and Co. to get some revenge and continue the team's upwards surge in the Western Conference playoff f seedings. Good luck...Larry |
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12-23-18 | Mavs v. Blazers -7 | 118-121 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Por Blazers at 9:05 ET. The Dallas Mavericks won just 24 games last season, so it's hard to call the team's current 15-16 record anything but a step in the right direction. However, the Mavs head to Portland tonight off a 120-116 loss in Oakland to Golden St, the team's FIFTH consecutive loss. Speaking of losing, Portland saw its three-game winning streak snapped Friday night, when the Blazers were blown out at home 120-90 by Utah. The Mavs' 6-7 rookie forward from Slovenia (Luka Doncic) leads all NBA rookies in scoring (18.8), while also averaging 6.6 rebounds and 4.9 assists. He is the leading candidate for the league's Rookie of the Year Award. Harrison Barnes (18.1) is again giving Dallas consistent scoring up front plus center Deandre Jordan is averaging 11.0 & 14.4 (he has 22 or more rebounds in THREE of his last four games!). Portland is led by the guard duo of Lillard (26.9-5.9-5.8) and McCollum (21.2), while center Nurkic (14.2 & 10.1) will also be a good check on Jordan. Friday's loss to Utah dropped Portland to 12-5 at home this season. "They played well," Lillard said. "They beat us on their home floor. We competed well, but they had a better night than we did. Now they have to come to our floor. Coming off a performance like (the one against Utah), one thing you can always count on is a team coming back much sharper and playing a better game." Portland enters tonight's game coming off its most one-sided home loss in 14 years (see above). The Blazers allowed Utah to shoot 55.3 percent and go 16-for-31 from beyond the arc in the rout. If that's not enough motivation for a "bounce-back" effort, how about this? The Blazers got their fill of Doncic back on Dec 4 at American Airlines Center, when the rookie scored 21 points and grabbed nine rebounds in Dallas' 111-102 victory. Let me add that all five starters scored in double figures for the Mavericks in that one. I won't ignore Dallas' 2-13 SU record on the road this season or that the Mavs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Considering the Mavs have allowed a whopping 122.8 PPG their last four and come into this game with no rest (played last night in Oakland), Portland HAS to be the play. Good luck...Larry |
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12-23-18 | Hornets v. Celtics -7 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at 6:05 ET. The 16-15 Charlotte Hornets visit the TD Garden on Sunday to take on the 18-13 Boston Celtics. It's likely the Celtics will be in a nasty mood, as Boston has lost three in a row following an eight-game winning streak. As for the Hornets, they are back above .500, after Marvin Williams scored a season-high 24 points in Friday's 98-86 home win over the Pistons. Charlotte has now won two straight and five of its last seven. Kemba Walker, who leads the Hornets with 25.0 PPG, added 22 points on Friday, as Charlotte finished its longest homestand of the season with a 3-2 mark. Walker is also averaging 6.3 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game on the season, all of which are career-high numbers. However, he doesn't get much help, as shooting guards Lamb (14.9) and Monk (10.6) are the only other Charlotte players averaging in double figures. Boston's three-game slide includes the first two games of what will be a four-game homestand. The Celtics first lost to lowly Phoenix and then Friday night, Milwaukee pulled away for a 120-107 triumph. That prompted a closed-door postgame meeting. "At this point it comes down to cohesion, being able to trust the pass, trust what we have going on out there," point guard Kyrie Irving told reporters after the door was finally opened to the locker room. "Obviously some selfish play out there where ... we have some really talented guys, but we're better as a team sharing the basketball." Here's the rub. Off that Friday night loss to Milwaukee, Boston couldn't ask for a better opponent on Sunday than Charlotte. The Hornets are no better than an average team plus the Celtics can't possibly forget losing at Charlotte back on Nov 17, 117-112. Walker 'killed' Boston with a 43-point outburst, ending Boston's seven-game winning streak over Charlotte. What's more, the Celtics had been 11-1 SU & 10-1-1 ATS in their previous 12 series meetings with the Hornets. Boston returns to form, right here! Good luck...Larry |
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12-22-18 | Mavs v. Warriors -11.5 | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the GS Warriors at 8:35 ET. The 21-11 Golden State Warriors are still fighting for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference but the team isn't nearly as dominant as it has in the past four seasons. The Warriors will try to avoid back-to-back losses when they host the 15-15 Dallas Mavericks on Saturday. Dallas is much improved from last year (Mavs won just 24 games all season!) but they limp in on a four-game skid (have lost five in a row ATS), having allowed 120, 126 and 125 points their last three. Dallas lost Tuesday at Denver and Thursday in Los Angeles to the Clippers (to open a four-game road trip 0-2), despite two more brilliant efforts by rookie Luka Doncic, who had a 23-point, 12-assist double-double against the Nuggets before exploding for a season-best 32 points against the Clippers. Doncic averages a team-high 18.8 PPG (Barnes is at 18.2), plus adds 6.6 rebounds and 4.9 assists. Center DeAndre Jordan grabbed 22 rebounds on Thursday and is averaging 14.1 RPG, including 18 boards during the four-game slide. The Warriors don't seem to be having 'fun' this season, which is quite a departure. Three of Golden State's four All-Stars have contributed to the recent slump. Green hasn't scored in double figures since October and has made just 1 of 10 three-pointers in five games since his return from a sprained toe. Klay Thompson has been held to 16 or fewer points in three of his last four games, a stretch during which he has shot 39 percent overall and 20 percent (5 of 25) on 3-pointers. Then there is Kevin Durant, who has scored 30 or more points in three of his last four games but has seen his three-point percentage fall to 35.5 percent, his lowest in eight seasons, as the result of making just 20 of his last 52. However, here's the rub. Golden State will surely remember this seasons' Nov 17 meeting in Dallas, when the Mavs snapped a 10-game Warrior winning streak in the series, riding a 4th-Q rally to a 112-109 victory. The Warriors were without injured Stephen Curry and Draymond Green that nigh but both have since returned. Golden State's home winning streak against the Mavericks is up to 11 in a row (extends back to March 2012) and note that the Warriors averaged 222.8 points in their four-game sweep of the Mavericks last season. Blowout alert! Good luck...Larry |
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12-22-18 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on the SA/Hou Under at 8:05 EST. The 18-15 Spurs are in Houston tonight to take on the 16-15 Rockets. The SA Spurs entered last night's home game with the T-wolves having won six of their last seven games without needing their front-line players late in those contests. San Antonio's last four wins had all been by 25 or more points. Make that SEVEN of eight wins, with FIVE in a row coming by 25 points or more, as San Antonio blasted Minnesota, 124-98! San Antonio coasted again on Friday, getting just 22 total points from top scorers DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, who entered with a combined average of 42.2 PPG. The Rockets last played on Thursday, when the team's five-game winning streak was snapped by the Heat, who won 101-99. More bad news came Houston's way as star PG Chris Paul strained his left hamstring in the loss at Miami. He is expected to miss at least two weeks. "It's definitely tough, because he's a big-time playmaker and ball handler for us," guard Eric Gordon told reporters. "In this offense you need all of the playmaking that you can have, and usually me, Chris, and James [Harden] have the ball in our hands trying to play-make for other people and provide good scoring." The Spurs are playing on back-to-back nights and have gone 0-5 in the last half of those recent back-to-backs. Also note that Houston is 0 -5 this season without Paul. This situation hardly seems to favor a high-scoring game. In fact, Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in 10 of its last 14 after playing a road game. Good luck...Larry |
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12-21-18 | Jazz v. Blazers -2 | 120-90 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET. Portland is now trending in the right direction. The Blazers went just 5-10 SU from Nov 14 thru Dec 12, including a pointspread drought of 3-12! However, the Blazers enter having won three in a row, over Toronto (NBA's best record) plus Western Conference playoff-bound teams like the Clippers and Grizzlies. 18-13 Portland welcomes 15-17 Utah to Moda Center tonight, with the Jazz coming off a confidence-building Wednesday win over the Golden St Warriors (108-103). Utah's impressive win is worthy of note, as guards Donovan Mitchell (20.9) and Ricky Rubio (12.5-3.6-6.1) combined to make just 5 of 34 shots from the floor. The Jazz need to avoid a letdown here but note that the team had lost four of its previous five outings prior to the win over the Warriors. In Portland's 99-92 home over Memphis Wednesday night, Lillard (27.2-5.0-6.0) exploded for 15 of his game-high 24 points in the third quarter, hitting 5 of 8 shots from the floor, including 4 of 5 from beyond the three-point line. That's been Lillard's mode of operation often through this season. He leads the NBA in second-half scoring (15.6 points) and has made 46 of 96 three-point shots (47.9 percent) in the third quarter, with the 46 makes being the most in the league. Portland’s bench also came alive, outscoring the Memphis reserves 44-14, two games after having a 58-26 edge in bench points against the Toronto Raptors. The Blazers come in 4-0 SU & ATS in their last four home games, giving them a home mark this season of 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS. Also note that Portland is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games against teams with losing road records. Utah is only 2-8 SU at Moda Center the last five years and are just 1-5 ATS in its last six visits. Blowout Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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12-21-18 | Wolves v. Spurs -4 | Top | 98-124 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. The 14-17 Minnesota Timberwolves visit at the AT&T Center in San Antonio on Friday to take on the 17-15 Spurs. Minnesota heads to the Alamo City after a 129-123 home OT loss to Detroit on Wednesday, one in which the Timberwolves led by 14 points heading to the fourth quarter (I remember it well, losing on the T-wolves!). Meanwhile, the Spurs return home after a 129-90 win over Orlando. The victory was the Spurs' first win away from San Antonio since Nov 26 at Chicago (Spurs are just 5-10 on the road). Minnesota 'limps' in' having lost five of its last six games and six of its last nine. Minnesota is beginning a three-game road stretch on the heels of that devastating overtime loss to the visiting Pistons on Wednesday (Andre Drummond tapped in a putback with 0.6 seconds left to send the game into OT. "The fourth quarter is different and you have to react to what's going on, so that is disappointing," Minnesota coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters after Wednesday's game. "I think they had 78 (points) after three, and then a 40-point fourth quarter. And then all we had to do was get a stop, and we give up a second shot. That can't happen." San Antonio will be carrying a little swagger into this game plus benefit from a mostly rested lineup after winning six of their past seven games without needing their front-line players late in those contests. San Antonio's last four wins have all been by 25 or more points, making them the fourth team all-time to attain that mark, joining the 1971-72 Bucks (five straight), the 1974-75 Warriors and 1992-93 Rockets. Don't look now but Pop has his team looking as good as any team in the West. San Antonio is 7-3 SU in December (7-2-1 ATS), outscoring opponents by 12 PPG and shooting 53% as a team. Need More? How about this? San Antonio will certainly have some revenge motivation, after being blown out by 39 points at Minneapolis in late November, losing 128-89. It represents one of the Spurs' worst losses of the Popovich era. I'm NOT done. San Antonio improved to 50-9 all-time at home against Minnesota with a 112-108 win on Oct. 17 and the Timberwolves haven't won in San Antonio since posting a 108-95 victory back on April 17, 2013 in the regular-season finale when Rick Adelman was coach! I’m laying the 'cheap number' and expecting a rout. Good luck…Larry |
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12-20-18 | Mavs v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 121-125 | Win | 103 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* TNT Knockout is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET. The 15-14 Dallas Mavericks enter off a 126-118 road loss in Denver on Tuesday, the team's THIRD straight defeat. The skid comes on the heels of Dallas exceeding expectations by winning 12 of its previous 15 games(note: The Mavs won just 24 games last season!). Meanwhile, the Clippers were one of the league's biggest surprises while jumping off to a 15-6 start, but after a 131-127 home loss to Portland on Monday, they have dropped seven of nine games (including a season-worst four straight losses!). The play of rookie Luka Doncic (18.4-6.7-4.9) has been "the talk of the town" in Dallas but after an excellent stretch (see above), the Mavericks are starting to come undone. The Mavs enter this contest on a four-game ATS slide and note that they are just 1-4 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in back-to-back games. The Clippers allowed a season worst for points in Monday's 131-127 home setback against the Portland but I fully expect them to be fully motivated for this one. Center DeAndre Jordan returns to Staples Center as a visiting player for the first time against the Clippers, of whom he spent his first 10 NBA seasons. What's more, the Clippers lost not long ago in Dallas (Dec 2 to be exact) by the score of 114-110, as Jordan scored 16 points and added 23 rebounds (a season high he has since matched). The Clippers are 9-4 SU at home (6-3 as a home favorite), where they average 114.8 PPG. In contrast, the Mavs are just 2-11 SU on the road and this pointspread won't leave them much of a "margin of error" to cover without winning SU. Revenge works here, so for all the reasons listed above, play on the Clippers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-19-18 | Pistons v. Wolves -5 | 129-123 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST). To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement. These teams don’t see each other very often, but Detroit has won six straight in the series, including taking both meetings last year. Both teams come into this one struggling, meaning that home court advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup in my opinion. Detroit enters off a 107-104 home loss to the Bucks on Monday and it’s now lost seven of eight. Blake Griffin was once again a bright spot in the setback with 19 points, 11 assists and ten boards. Overall the Pistons average 109 PPG and concede 109.9. The Wolves average 111.6 PPG and they concede 110.6. Minnesota went 0-4 on a recent road trip, but a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered to get things turned around, as they’d go on to destroy the Kings 132-105 in their most recent action on Monday. And there’s no reason not to think that they won’t carry that momentum over here now as well. Note as well that Detroit is just 3-5 ATS already this year after playing three consecutive home games, while Minnesota is already 7-3 ATS as a home favorite this season. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-18-18 | Lakers -2 v. Nets | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers at 7:35 ET. The 18-12 LA Lakers are coming off a 128-110 thumping on Sunday in Washington (trailed by as many as 27 points) but let's not ignore that LA is 16-7 over the team's last 23 games. Meanwhile, the 13-18 Brooklyn Nets are on a five-game winning streak, their longest since March 25-April 3, 2015. The current run follows a frustrating eight-game losing skid that saw them struggle to close out games. LBJ was held to a season-low 13 points on 5 of 16 shooting on Sunday and said, "We have to get some rest." James was held under 20 points for just the fourth time this season and added, "We have two days so no excuses obviously with the game being on Tuesday. I watched the game before we played. They put up 140 something points, so we have to be ready to defend for 48 minutes." Sunday's loss followed a 28-point win in Charlotte on Saturday night when James and Lonzo Ball both recorded triple-doubles but the Lakers could not produce an effective follow-up performance as they committed 22 turnovers. Brooklyn's five game winning run began with an overtime home win against the Toronto Raptors on Dec 7, then continued with road wins over the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers before the Nets returned home to beat the Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks. During the streak, the Nets are averaging 122.8 points, while shooting 50.2 percent from the floor (including 40.4 percent from three-point range). The Nets are also averaging 27.4 assists and assisting on 63.1 percent of their baskets. Bottom line is this. Do the above just-noted numbers sound ANYTHING like the Brooklyn team we've come to know and love? Yes, the Nets have scored at least 120 points in three straight games (all wins) but that's despite allowing at least 54 percent shooting. FYI...They are the first team to do so since the Houston Rockets in 1987-88. Off an embarrassing Sunday loss at Washington, LBJ carries the Lakers to a comfortable win, here. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-18 | 76ers v. Spurs +1 | 96-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. No need to really over think this one. The 76ers come in off a big 128-105 win at Cleveland last night and I think they’ll struggle to find energy in the second game of the back to back in this non-conference west coast contest. San Antonio won’t be lacking any motivation today either, because it had its four-game win streak snapped in a humbling home loss to the lowly Bulls on Saturday: “That’s a tough loss,” Spurs’ head coach Greg Popovich lamented afterwards. “I give Chicago a lot of credit. (Interim) coach (Jim) Boylen had them ready, and the character and fortitude they showed being down at the half by 19 is a real tribute to what they are trying to establish in Chicago. Their defense took us out of things. We turned it over because of their pressure. The ball stopped moving, and at the right time, they started making some shots down the stretch. They deserve a lot of credit, and that’s a real tough loss for us.” I think describing the setback as “tough” is being gentle. San Antonio can’t be happy whatsoever and I think it bounces back with a vintage performance here in this favorable situation. Note that San Antonio had not just won four in a row before lowly-Chicago came back from by 21 points down in the third quarter to win 98-93, but the Spurs had won those four games by an average of 22.3 points! Yes, Philly won both meetings last year with the Spurs but I sure HAVE to believe that Pop will remind his club that Philly held the Spurs to a season-low 78 points in the second encounter at San Antonio on Jan 26, 2018. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Spurs. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-18 | Jazz v. Rockets -5 | Top | 97-102 | Push | 0 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Rockets at 8:05 ET. The Jazz look poised for another letdown here in my opinion after getting upset 96-89 against Orlando in Mexico City on Saturday. The Rockets on the other hand, have started to turn things around. The team's impressive 105-97 road win at Memphis on Saturday was the Rockets' third in a row (also 3-0 ATS). Reigning MVP James Harden has averaged 37.0-7.7-8.3 during the streak. Note that this is a “double revenge” scenario as well, with Utah having already taken both earlier meetings this year, including a 118-91 home blowout victory in the most recent matchup December 6th. The Jazz average 106.8 PPG and they concede 106.6. It’s a fine line that Utah has to balance each night and right now it’s not going so well as the Jazz have lost three of their last four. Donovan Mitchell was a bright spot in the loss last time out with 24 points. Houston's season numbers are underwhelming but the feeling here is that the Rockets are beginning to show signs of looking more like last year's 65-win team. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of hungry Houston. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-18 | Raptors -1.5 v. Nuggets | 86-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. It's mid-December and who could have predicted that a Toronto/Denver matchup would feature a contest between the top teams in the Eastern and Western Conference. The 23-8 Raptors own the NBA's best record and the Nuggets lead a crowded field out West (four teams are within 1 1/2 games), topping the conference with a 19-9 mark (note: Denver sits atop the Western Conference this late in the season for the first time in its history). Both teams are facing serious injury issues. Denver is missing three starters from Opening Night, PF Paul Millsap (broken toe), guard Gary Harris (hip) and swingman Will Barton (core muscle surgery). As for Toronto, center Jonas Valanciunas underwent surgery on his dislocated left thumb Thursday and is expected to miss four to six weeks. Kawhi Leonard scored 28 Friday night at Portland after missing two games with a hip injury but PG Kyle Lowry is listed as questionable for Sunday's game with a thigh injury. He didn't play against the Trail Blazers. The Raptors will be hungry for a victory here after dropping four of their last seven. Toronto most recently fell 128-122 at Portland, two nights after destroying the Warriors in Golden State. Despite the setback, the Raptors are still an excellent 12-4 on the road this season. Denver has won nine of its last 11, most recently a 109-98 win over OKC on Friday, led by 24 points, 15 boards and nine assists from Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets are 11-3 at home but note that they’re just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 after two or more consecutive SU home wins. As noted above, Toronto has been one of the league’s best road teams this season and it’s also been great in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS as a road underdog and 4-0 ATS after playing three straight road games. Final thought: The Nuggets snapped the Raptors' eight-game winning streak with a 106-103 victory on Dec 3. That was less than two weeks ago and the Raptors will remember. Lowry missed a three-pointer at the buzzer that would have tied it in that one but tonight, the game won't be close in the final minutes. Take Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-18 | Rockets v. Grizzlies +2.5 | 105-97 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:05 EST). I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this contest. One wonders how the Rockets can be just 13-14, after winning a league-high 65 games last season? Meanwhile, after winning only 22 games last season (only the Suns with 21, won fewer), Memphis checks in at 18-12. Yes, Houston's off a 126-111 win over LA on Thursday (Harden had a 50-point triple-double) but Houston entered that game on a 3-8 ATS run. Memphis is 4th in the league in defensive efficiency (ranks 2nd in points allowed at 102.0 per), while Houston is 24th (ranks 12th in allowing 109.6 PPG). Memphis actually split four games with Houston last season (remember, Houston won 65 games and Memphis just 22), so the home dog sure seems like it has a great chance to 'bark loudly' in this one! Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-18 | Lakers +1 v. Hornets | Top | 128-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Lakers (7:05 EST). This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. And we don’t have to overthink this one at all. LA got steamrolled by James Harden's 50-point triple-double in a 126-111 loss at Houston on Thursday but enjoyed the advantage of relaxing in Charlotte on Friday night while the Hornets were working overtime with the New York Knicks. In fact, the Hornets entered the fourth quarter with a 15-point lead on Friday, before suffering an 'ugly' 126-124 overtime loss. Charlotte has won six of the last 7 in this series but the Lakers have covered SIX straight in Charlotte. Of course, those games were all played before LBJ "took his talents" to Los Angeles. "King James" has gone 17-5 in North Carolina for the Cavaliers and Heat over the past 14 seasons, scoring 30 or more points 10 times and 35 or more four times, with a high of 41 in a 118-105 win last March. With the bonus of a scheduling advantage (see above), expect LBJ to lead LA to the team's 16th win in its last 22 games. At this price, I'm "all in" on the Lakers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-14-18 | Raptors v. Blazers +3 | Top | 122-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Month (Non-Conf) is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors opened the current season 12-1 before losing three straight from Nov 12-16. However, after dominating road wins at the LA Clippers on Tuesday (123-99) and at the Golden St Warriors on Wednesday (113-93), the entire NBA is 'looking up' at the Raptors and their NBA-best 23-7 mark. Meanwhile, the Portland Blazers opened the season an impressive 10-3 but after back-to-back road losses this week at Houston (Tue) and Memphis (Wed), the team welcomes the Raptors to Moda Center having dropped 10 of its last 15 games (3-12 ATS). Toronto dominated the two-time defending champions in that 113-93 road win on Wednesday, despite being without Kawhi Leonard (hip). PG Kyle Lowry had shot 4-of-28 from the floor over a four-game span but made 17-of-31 FG attempts against the Warriors and Clippers in Toronto's first two contests of this four-game road trip. Meanwhile, the Blazers are returning home after a two-game road trip (see above). Shooting guard CJ McCollum scored 40 points on 16-of-27 shooting in Wednesday's 92-83 loss to the Grizzlies but the rest of the team went 16-of-60 (26.7%) from the floor. That includes PG Damian Lillard (4-of-18) and center Jusuf Nurkic (1-of-15)! Toronto had lost three of four before beating the Clippers and Warriors. Leonard (26.1 & 8.3) sat out both wins with a balky hip (he's listed as questionable here). Also, center Jonas Valanciunas (12.8 & 7.2) underwent surgery Wednesday night after dislocating his left thumb against the Warriors. He will wear a cast for four weeks and then begin rehabilitation. Sure, the Blazers are reeling but just how does Toronto avoid a letdown? Any chance that Lillard (27.0-5.1-6.1) and Nurkic (14.5 & 10.5) will combine to shoot 5-of-33 again, as they did Wednesday against Memphis? Portland brings back memories of "RIP City" in earning a BIG win in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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12-14-18 | Wizards v. Nets -1.5 | 118-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My 9* Wipeout Winner is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:35 EST). Washington comes in off a deflating 130-125 OT loss at home to the Celtics on Wednesday, while the Nets enter off a confidence building 127-124 road win on the same night. These teams have split a pair of games this year, but the Nets play with revenge here after falling 102-88 in the Nation’s capital in the latest back on December 1st. Washington averages 110.1 PPG and it conceds 116.9. Guard Bradley Beal leads the nightly charge with 22.9 points per game. Star John Wall is listed as questionable for this one and if he does play, one definitely has to wonder if he’s at 100% health or not? Brooklyn comes in on top form having won three straight. The Nets average 109.3 PPG and they concede 111.1. Spencer Dinwiddie averages 16.9 points and 4.9 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Brooklyn is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 following a three games or more SU unbeaten streak, while Washington is only 5-21 ATS in its last 26 on the road. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Nets. Good luck…Larry |
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12-13-18 | Lakers +5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* TNT Knockout is on the LA Lakers (8:05 EST). The Rockets have been consistently inconsistent to open the 2018/19 NBA campaign and after a 111-104 home win over Portland in their latest action, I expect this trend of futility to continue here against this hungry visiting side. The Lakers come to town off a 108-105 home win over the Heat. Note that this is a “triple revenge” game for the Lakers as well, including losing the first meeting of the year 124-115 back on October 20th. LA is quietly dominating, as it comes in having won two straight and six of its last seven. Overall the Lakers average 113.1 PPG and they concede 110.9. LeBron James averages 28.3 points, 7.7 boards and 7.1 assists per night. Houston averages only 108.4 PPG and it concedes 109.5. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 30 points and 5.3 boards per game. I’ll point out though that the Rockets are a terrible 1-5 ATS in their last six when playing on one days rest, while LA is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS loss. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-18 | Raptors v. Warriors -6.5 | 113-93 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My 9* Late Breaking Play is on the Golden State Warriors (10:35 EST). The Raptors come in off a win against the Clippers just last night and I think they’ll struggle with energy in this difficult road venue and in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. After a shaky stretch and with the return of “captain” Stephen Curry, the Warriors come in on top form with four straight victories. Not only is Curry back for the Warriors, but so too is swingman Draymond Green, who returned after an 11 game absence to post seven points, ten boards, seven assist and one block in 29 minutes in his team’s most recent win over the Wolves. I’ll point out as well that Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. teams with winning road records, while Toronto is now just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 vs. the Western Conference. Note as well that that Raptors are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 at Oracle Arena. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-18 | Thunder -1.5 v. Pelicans | 114-118 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:05 EST). New Orleans is struggling after a fast start and the rumours of star Anthony Davis being on the “trade block” isn’t helping ease tensions these days. The Thunder got off to a terrible start to the 2018/19 campaign, but they’ve been on fire ever since and I think they carry that momentum over here into this potentially dangerous match-up. OKC enters off a 122-113 win over the Jazz on Monday, getting 31 points from Paul George. Overall the Thunder average 108.1 points per 100 possessions, while allowing only 101.6 points per 100 possessions, which ranks first in the league. New Orleans averages 112.7 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 111.3 points per 100 possessions. Anthony Davis had 41 points in a loss to the Celtics in the Pelicans most recent action. I’ll point out as well that OKC is already 7-2 ATS this year after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest, wile New Orleans is already 0-4 ATS this season off a road loss of ten points or more. Davis is having a hard time carrying the load by himself and I think he’ll struggle again here against this deep and defensively talented visiting side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-18 | Blazers v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 83-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONF GAME OF MONTH is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:05 EST). The Blazers enter off a hard-fought and exhausting loss in Houston just last night and I think it’ll come in with “heavy legs” in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. The Rockets were desperate for a victory last night and so too are the Grizzlies after a two game slide in this one. I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular selection. Damian Lillard was a bright spot in last night’s loss for the Blazers, finishing with 34 points, two boards and two assists, but one has to wonder how much “gas” he has left in the tank here? The Grizzlies have looked a lot better this season, but after being held to under 100 points in back-to-back games, I think that Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and company get out and push the pace of this one from start to finish. I’ll point out as well that memphis 11-4 ATS in its last 15 at home and 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games vs. teams with losing SU road records, while Portland is now 0-5 ATS in its last five on the road. Memphis is tough at home (8-4) and in my opinion, it has a significant advantage tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-18 | Blazers v. Rockets OVER 219.5 | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Blazers/Rockets (8:05 EST). Portland comes in off a 113-105 home win over Minnesota, while Houston enters off a 107-104 road loss in Dallas. Houston is looking to break out of its early season slump and to avenge a 104-85 setback to the Blazers on October 30th. I’m expecting the home side to push the pace from start to finish and for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Portland’s won two straight. Overall the Blazers average 112.3 PPG and concede 110.4. Damian Lillard leads the nightly charge with 27.2 points and 6.4 assists per night. Houston averages 108.3 PPG and it concedes 109.7. James Harden leads the team with 30 points, 5.5 boards and 8.3 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Portland’s already seen the total go over the number in four of six on the road this season, while Houston has seen the total fly over in its last three following a loss by 14 points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-18 | Kings -2.5 v. Bulls | 108-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Sacramento Kings (8:05 EST). The Kings are 13-12 and the Bulls are 6-21. Overall Sacramento is averaging 114.5 PPG and it’s allowing 116. Buddy Hield is averaging 18.8 points and 5.4 boards per game, while De’Aaron Fox averages 17.8 points and 7.6 assists. The Bulls have lost 12 of their last 14. Chicago is averaging 102.3 PPG and it’s conceding 113. Overall the Bulls have lost five of their last seven SU at home. These are two terrible teams and while the Bulls are getting healthier (the return of Lauri Markkanen is huge obviously), the home side lacks the depth and scoring talent to keep up with the Kings in my opinion. Note as well that the Bulls are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven when playing on one days rest, while the Kings are still 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -6 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:05 EST). The Jazz enter off a loss in San Antonio just last night and I think they’ll stumble here as well in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. The Thunder have turned their season around after a horrible start, but they’ll be eager to return to form after a 114-112 road loss to Chicago. Utah is scuffling right now, having gone 5-6 in its last 11. Overall the Jazz are averaging 107.4 PPG and conceding 107.6. Rudy Gobert is averaging 15 points and 12.4 boards per game. OKC averages 111.1 PPG and it concedes 104.4. The Thunder are 9-3 SU at home and I think they’ll lay the hammer down from start to finish in this one. Note that Utah is a horrible 14-25 ATS in its last 39 as a road underdog of six points or less, while OKC is 24-15 ATS in its last 39 as a home favorite of six points or less. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Jazz v. Spurs +3.5 | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
My 9* Wipeout Winner is on the San Antonio Spurs (7:05 EST). Utah’s won four of the last five in this series, including a blowout 139-105 victory at home in the first meeting this year. San Antonio plays with revenge and I think it’ll at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably come away with the ATS cover. Utah comes in off a 118-91 win over the Rockets on Thursday, while SA posted a 133-120 home win over the Lakers most recently. The Jazz average 107.4 PPG and they concede 107.2. Donovan Mitchell leads the nightly charge with 20.6 PPG. San Antonio is averaging 110.3 PPG and it’s conceding 114. DeMar DeRozan averages 24.7 points and six assists per night. Note though that Utah is just 2-5 ATS already this season after covering in three of its last four ATS, while San Antonio is 3-1 ATS this season as a home underdog. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Spurs. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-18 | Kings v. Pacers -3 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Indiana Pacers (7:05 EST). Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back, which really makes home court a big advantage for the Pacers in this match-up in my professional opinion. The Kings come in off a big 129-110 road win in Cleveland, while The Pacers return home off a big 112-90 win over Orlando on Friday. Note that this is an in season revenge game for Indiana, which fell 111-110 in Sacramento only last week. It’s a natural letdown spot for Sacramento, which plays its final game of its Eastern swing. Sacramento averages 114.7 PPG and it concedes 116.6. De’Aaron Fox averages 17.3 points and 7.5 assists per night. Indiana comes in having won straight. The Pacers average 105.8 PPG and they concede just 102.1. Victor Oladipo leads the nightly charge with 21.4 points, 6.6 boards and 1.56 steal per game. Even with Oladipo out, I love the Pacers here. Note that Sacramento is a terrible 10-17 ATS in its last 27 after covering five or six of its last seven games against the spread, while Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last seven when playing the second game of a back to back. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-18 | Rockets -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* Battle 4 Texas is on the Houston Rockets (6:05 EST). Houston will be desperate her after its terrible start. The Rockets come in off a humbling 118-91 road loss to Utah on Thursday. After a great stretch, the Mavs have also come back down to Earth, most recently getting drubbed 118-91 on the road in New Orleans. Note that this is an in-season revenge game for the Rockets too after the Mavericks took a 128-108 road victory in the first match-up of the season. Overall the Rockets are averaging 108.5 PPG and conceding 109.8. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 29.8 points, 5.6 boards and 8.3 assists per game. The Mavericks are averaging 110.6 PPG and they’re allowing 109.6. Luke Doncic leads the way with 18.1 points, 6.5 boards and 4.3 assists per night. I’ll point out though that Houston is 18-11 ATS in its last 29 in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent, while Dallas is only 2-8 ATS in its last ten (including 1-3 ATS this season) after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-07-18 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 219.5 | Top | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* TV Total Mismatch is the over Philly/Detroit (7:05 EST). Philly had its five-game win streak snapped in a tough 113-102 road loss in Toronto on Friday, while Detroit enters off a poor 115-92 road loss in Milwaukee. Both teams will be eager to return to form and as such, I’m expecting a wide-open run and gun shootout rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle. Detroit will be extra motivated here as well after back-to-back poor showings and to also avenge a 109-99 loss to the 76ers on November 3rd. Philly averages 113.7 PPG and it concedes 111.8. Big man Joel Embiid leads the way with 26.3 points, 13.3 boards and 1.96 blocks per game. Detroit averages 109.4 PPG and it concedes 109.5. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 24.9 points, 9.1 boards and five assists per night. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go over in 10 of its last 14 after playing to three or more straight “unders,” while Detroit has seen the total eclipse the posted number in both games that it’s played in this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-18 | Rockets v. Jazz -1.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Knockout is on the Utah Jazz (10:35 EST). Houston has allowed 116.1 PPG over its last nine games. It has caused the team's defensive rating to tumble to 25th among NBA teams. The Rockets' offense has not been up to last year's standard (109.2 PPG ranks 18th) ) and it hasn't been able to keep up. The result has been five losses over their last seven contests. Meanwhile, Utah has won four of its last six games and knocked down a franchise-record 20 three-pointers in Tuesday's 139-105 rout of the San Antonio Spurs (10 different players connected on at least one from behind the arc during the impressive victory). Utah cruised to a 100-89 road win in the first matchup of this series back in late October and I believe it’ll have an even easier time of it today. Note as well that Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest, while Houston is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Rockets’ star Chris Paul was just one of eight form the floor in the loss to Minnesota most recently and I think he’ll struggle again here against this surging home side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-18 | 76ers +6 v. Raptors | 102-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My 9* Showdown is on the Philadelphia 76ers (8:05 EST). Philadelphia lost 129-112 in Toronto in the first matchup of the year back on October 30th. The 76ers have since “found” themselves and they come into this one on top form. While the outright victory is clearly not out of the question, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I see being decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last. The Raptors are ripe for the picking after a disheartening 106-103 home loss to Denver. The 76ers on the other hand have won four straight, most recently a 103-95 victory at home over Memphis. Philadelphia averages 114.2 PPG and it allows 111.8. Joel Embiid averages 27 points, 13.4 boards and two blocks per game. Toronto averages 116.6 PPG and it concedes 108.3. Kawhi Leonard leads the way with 25.6 points and 8.5 boards per game. I’ll point out though that Philly is already a solid 4-2 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Toronto is only 5-8 ATS at home this season. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-18 | Nuggets -5 v. Magic | Top | 124-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Denver Nuggets (7:05 EST). At some point the Nuggets are going to have a letdown, but I don’t think that tonight is that night. Denver enters off a confidence building 106-103 road win over the Raptors. The Magic come in off a very satisfying win in Miami just last night and I think they’re primed for a predictable letdown vs. this deep and talented non-conference visiting side. The Nuggets come in on top form having won six straight. Denver averages 110.2 PPG and it concedes 102.7. Nikola Jokic leads the way with 16.7 points, 9.7 boards and 7.5 assists per night. The Magic average 105.8 PPG and they concede 108.1. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Nikola Vucevic leads the nightly charge with 21 points, 11.3 boards and 3.8 assists per night. I’ll point out as well that Orlando is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, while Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road. Look for these strong trends to continue and lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-18 | Magic v. Heat -2 | Top | 105-90 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Miami Heat (7:35 EST). Orlando comes in off a 99-85 road win over Phoenix on Friday and I think it’ll stumble here with the extra time off and in this difficult venue. The Heat enter off a confidence building 102-100 home win over Utah on Sunday. Note that this is a revenge game as well for Miami after the Magic won 104-101 in the first meeting at home back in mid October. Orlando is averaging 105.8 PPG and it’s conceding 108.1. Nikola Vucevic leads the way with 21 points, 11.3 boards and 3.8 assists per night. Miami averages 108.2 PPG and it concedes 109.6. Hassan Whiteside is averaging 13.6 points, 13.9 boards and 2.9 blocks per game. I’ll point out as well that the Magic are a terrible 3-6 ATS in their last nine when playing with three or more days of rest, while Miami is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 in trying to revenge a close loss of three points or less to an opponent. Miami has won back-to-back games and I look for it to keep the foot on the gas here as well and to avenge the earlier loss to their division rival. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-18 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 237.5 | Top | 129-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* West-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under LA/NO (8:05 EST). What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For me it’s “run and gun” offense and very little defense. These are indeed two of the higher-scoring teams in the league, but each comes in off an exhausting game just last night. While these clubs normally play to “shootouts,” I think the overall conditions finally point to a lower-scoring defensive battle. LA plays with revenge here after falling 116-109 in the first meeting between the teams this year. The Clippers come in dejected off a 114-110 loss in Dallas on Monday, while the Pelicans return home contented after a 119-109 road win in Charlotte. After winning nine of their last ten, I think a predictable letdown is in store for the over-achieving Clippers in the second game of the back to back. New Orleans has been “hit or miss” all year as well, going just 5-6 in its last 11 overall, so a letdown after last night’s big win isn’t too difficult to imagine either. Additionally note that LA has seen the total go under the under in five of seven already this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent which scored 110 points or more in, while New Orleans has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | Pelicans v. Hornets -3 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Charlotte Hornets (5:05 EST). New Orleans enters off a 106-101 setback in Miami on Friday, while Charlotte comes in off a 119-111 home loss to Utah on Friday. These teams haven’t played yet this season, but Charlotte does play with revenge here as well, as New Orleans has taken four straight in the series. The Pelicans have now lost four of their last five. They come into this game averaging 117.7 PPG and conceding 116.5. Anthony Davis leads the way with 27.8 points, 12.7 boards, 4.6 assists, 2.74 blocks and 1.53 assists per game. While New Orleans is 7-5 SU on the road, note that it’s just 4-8 ATS in those contests. Charlotte is back to .500 after its two game win streak was snapped by the Jazz, but the good news is that it still has a hold on the division lead. The Hornets average 114.7 PPG and they concede 110.4. Kemba Walker leads the nightly charge with 27.1 points and 6.2 assists per night. I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road dog of six points or less, while Charlotte is 8-4 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Hornets. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-18 | Warriors v. Pistons +5.5 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Conf Crusher is on the Detroit Pistons (7:05 EST). The Warriors welcome back captain Stephen Curry to the line-up, but I think the defending champs are still going to need some time to get back on track and gain their normal chemistry. Most recently the Warriors come in off an exhausting 131-128 OT loss in Toronto, a game in which Kevin Durant went for 51 points. The surging Pistons look to take advantage after their fourth straight win, most recently over Chicago in blowout fashion. Golden State averages 116.5 PPG, while conceding 111.5. As mentioned off the top, having Curry back will clearly start to turn things around for the Warriors, but as also stated earlier, I do definitely fel that “instant chemistry” is out of the question in this one. And that’s because the Pistons are firing on all cylinders, averaging 111.8 PPG and conceding 110.7. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 25.1 points, 9.6 board and 5.1 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Golden State is just 3-7 ATS on the road this year, while Detroit is 6-2 ATS as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-29-18 | Pacers v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Lakers (10:35 EST). After back-to-back losses, the Lakers are the “hungrier” team tonight. Indiana on the other hand comes in contented after back-to-back road wins, including a 109-104 victory in Phoenix on Tuesday. But Pacers star Victor Oladipo is sitting this one out with injury and I believe The King and company get back on track and take advantage. Overall Indiana is averaging 106.5 PPG and it’s allowing 102.2. Oladipo leads the nightly charge with 21.4 points and 6.6 boards per game, but as mentioned off the top, he’s sitting this one out. The Lakers are averaging 112.8 PPG and they’re conceding 112.9. James leads the way with 27.6 points, 7.9 boards and 6.7 assists per night. I’ll point out though that Indiana has struggled against the better offensive teams in the league so far this season, going just 5-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per night. And note that the Lakers are a solid 4-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-28-18 | Spurs +4.5 v. Wolves | Top | 89-128 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:05 EST). The Spurs enter off a 108-107 road win over Chicago on Monday, while the Wolves held on for a 102-95 road victory over the Cavs on Monday. If recent history is any precedence, then the Spurs have to be liking their chance today as they’ve taken two straight in the series, including a 112-108 home victory in the first meeting back on October 17th. San Antonio is averaging 109.6 PPG and it’s allowing 110.1. DeMar DeRozan is averaging 24.8 points and 6.3 assists per night. Minnesota is averaging 109 PPG and it’s allowing 111.2. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 20.8 points and 12.2 boards per game. I’ll point out thought that Wolves are just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 following a three games or more unbeaten streak, while the Spurs are already 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season. After three straight wins and six in their last eight, this sets up as natural letdown spot for the home side in my opinion. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-18 | Lakers v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 85-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Denver Nuggets (9:05 EST). I like the Nuggets to avenge a 121-114 road loss in LA back on October 25th. LA enters off a poor 108-104 home loss to Orlando, while Denver comes in off a confidence building 105-98 road win in Oklahoma City on Saturday. LA had won seven of eight before Sunday’s loss. LeBron James was a bright spot in the setback, scoring 24 points and dishing out seven assists. Overall the Lakers are averaging 114.2 PPG and conceding 112.7. Denver averages 109.9 PPG and it concedes 103.2. Big man Nikola Jokic scores 16.6 points per game average. I’ll point out though that Denver is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 following an ATS victory, while LA is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest. The Nuggets are especially though at home, and they play with revenge here. I like Denver to pull away down the stretch for a comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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Larry Ness NBA Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-02-19 | Nets +4 v. Heat | Top | 88-117 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
03-01-19 | Clippers v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 116-109 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
03-01-19 | Blazers +5 v. Raptors | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
03-01-19 | Wizards +9 v. Celtics | 96-107 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
02-28-19 | Jazz v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
02-27-19 | Pelicans v. Lakers -5 | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
02-27-19 | Blazers v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 97-92 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
02-26-19 | Celtics v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
02-23-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -8 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
02-22-19 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 147-148 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
02-22-19 | Wizards v. Hornets -5 | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
02-21-19 | Heat v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
02-13-19 | Heat v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 112-101 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
02-12-19 | Jazz v. Warriors -8.5 | 108-115 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 54 m | Show | |
02-12-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -124 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
02-11-19 | Heat v. Nuggets -10.5 | Top | 87-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
02-11-19 | Mavs v. Rockets -10 | 104-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
02-11-19 | Wizards v. Pistons -4 | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
02-10-19 | Magic v. Hawks +2.5 | Top | 124-108 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
02-09-19 | Thunder v. Rockets -1.5 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
02-08-19 | Heat v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
02-08-19 | Bucks v. Mavs +8 | 122-107 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
02-08-19 | Nuggets v. 76ers -4.5 | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
02-06-19 | Rockets v. Kings +3 | Top | 127-101 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
02-05-19 | Clippers v. Hornets -3.5 | Top | 117-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
02-04-19 | Hawks v. Wizards -6 | Top | 137-129 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
02-02-19 | 76ers v. Kings +3.5 | Top | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
02-01-19 | Rockets v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 122-136 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
01-31-19 | Mavs v. Pistons -2 | Top | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
01-30-19 | Jazz v. Blazers -1 | Top | 105-132 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
01-27-19 | Jazz v. Wolves +4 | Top | 125-111 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
01-26-19 | Warriors v. Celtics +3.5 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
01-25-19 | Pistons v. Mavs -5 | Top | 101-106 | Push | 0 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
01-23-19 | Nuggets v. Jazz -3 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
01-23-19 | Raptors v. Pacers -5 | Top | 106-110 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
01-21-19 | Rockets v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
01-21-19 | Pistons v. Wizards -5.5 | 87-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
01-18-19 | Pelicans v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
01-17-19 | 76ers v. Pacers -3 | Top | 120-96 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
01-16-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -1.5 | Top | 129-109 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
01-14-19 | Grizzlies v. Rockets OVER 204.5 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
01-13-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4 | 113-116 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
01-12-19 | Spurs v. Thunder -5 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
01-11-19 | Hornets v. Blazers -6.5 | Top | 96-127 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
01-10-19 | Clippers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 100-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
01-08-19 | Wolves v. Thunder -8 | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
01-07-19 | Jazz v. Bucks -5.5 | 102-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
01-07-19 | Nuggets v. Rockets -1 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
01-06-19 | Heat -6 v. Hawks | 82-106 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
01-05-19 | Warriors -7.5 v. Kings | 127-123 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
01-05-19 | Rockets v. Blazers OVER 216.5 | Top | 101-110 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
01-04-19 | Thunder v. Blazers +1 | Top | 111-109 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
01-03-19 | Raptors v. Spurs -1.5 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
01-01-19 | Blazers v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
12-30-18 | Wolves v. Heat -3.5 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
12-29-18 | Warriors -3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
12-28-18 | Spurs v. Nuggets -3.5 | Top | 99-102 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
12-28-18 | Nets v. Hornets -4.5 | 87-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
12-27-18 | 76ers v. Jazz -5 | 114-97 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
12-27-18 | Celtics v. Rockets -118 | Top | 113-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
12-26-18 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
12-26-18 | Hornets v. Nets -1.5 | 132-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
12-25-18 | Thunder v. Rockets -105 | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
12-23-18 | Mavs v. Blazers -7 | 118-121 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
12-23-18 | Hornets v. Celtics -7 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
12-22-18 | Mavs v. Warriors -11.5 | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
12-22-18 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
12-21-18 | Jazz v. Blazers -2 | 120-90 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
12-21-18 | Wolves v. Spurs -4 | Top | 98-124 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
12-20-18 | Mavs v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 121-125 | Win | 103 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
12-19-18 | Pistons v. Wolves -5 | 129-123 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
12-18-18 | Lakers -2 v. Nets | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
12-17-18 | 76ers v. Spurs +1 | 96-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
12-17-18 | Jazz v. Rockets -5 | Top | 97-102 | Push | 0 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
12-16-18 | Raptors -1.5 v. Nuggets | 86-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
12-15-18 | Rockets v. Grizzlies +2.5 | 105-97 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
12-15-18 | Lakers +1 v. Hornets | Top | 128-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
12-14-18 | Raptors v. Blazers +3 | Top | 122-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
12-14-18 | Wizards v. Nets -1.5 | 118-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
12-13-18 | Lakers +5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
12-12-18 | Raptors v. Warriors -6.5 | 113-93 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
12-12-18 | Thunder -1.5 v. Pelicans | 114-118 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
12-12-18 | Blazers v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 83-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
12-11-18 | Blazers v. Rockets OVER 219.5 | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
12-10-18 | Kings -2.5 v. Bulls | 108-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
12-10-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -6 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
12-09-18 | Jazz v. Spurs +3.5 | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
12-08-18 | Kings v. Pacers -3 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
12-08-18 | Rockets -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
12-07-18 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 219.5 | Top | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
12-06-18 | Rockets v. Jazz -1.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
12-05-18 | 76ers +6 v. Raptors | 102-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
12-05-18 | Nuggets -5 v. Magic | Top | 124-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
12-04-18 | Magic v. Heat -2 | Top | 105-90 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
12-03-18 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 237.5 | Top | 129-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
12-02-18 | Pelicans v. Hornets -3 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
12-01-18 | Warriors v. Pistons +5.5 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
11-29-18 | Pacers v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
11-28-18 | Spurs +4.5 v. Wolves | Top | 89-128 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
11-27-18 | Lakers v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 85-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |