ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 233 Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trailblazers, Saturday 2:30PM ET

These same two teams met in the first game of the Bubble action and Vegas set a Total on that contest of 224 and now has a number that is 8.5-points more? That is an over-reaction to the Blazers scoring of late and offers us some tremendous value with an Under bet here. Portland expended a ton of energy to get to the 8th seed in the West and we cannot help but wonder how much they have emotionally and physically for this game. The Blazers defense has been horrendous in the Bubble games, but they have also faced 6 offenses that rank in the top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings. Four of the teams they faced are top 9 in the NBA in points per game scoring, so it is understandable their defense wasn’t great in the restart. Memphis has played solid defense in the Bubble allowing just 1.088 points per possession which is 6th best in the restart games. But the Grizzlies have struggled to score in the Bubble with the 17th worst (out of 22) offensive efficiency numbers. Memphis failed to reach 100-points in two games in the restart and scored 107 or less in half of their Bubble games. We can’t ignore the value in this Over/Under and will have to bet UNDER!

ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 230.5 Philadelphia 76ers vs. Houston Rockets, 9PM ET These two teams are locked into their playoff position and will rest all their key players here to stay healthy for a deep post-season run. The 76ers will face the Celtics in the opening round next week while the Rockets get the OKC Thunder. In this meaningless game we don’t expect to see the starters for either team which means the scoring has to come from the reserves. Houston averages 118PP on the season but will be without Russell Westbrook here (injured) and his 27.2PPG and 7 assists per game. We would be shocked to see Harden here and his 34PPG so where will the Rockets scoring come from. Houston’s bench is the 28th lowest scoring unit in the NBA this season, ahead of only Boston and Portland. The Rockets scoring is down in the Bubble as their average points per possession has dipped from 1.132PPP to 1.081PPP. Houston has scored 105 or less points in 3 of their last five games and their scoring average would be lower yet in the Bubble if it were not for a 153-scoring overtime output in the restart opener. Houston defense has been better though as they have the second-best defensive efficiency rating in Bubble games which is up from 11th during the regular season. Philly is in the same boat here as the Rockets with Ben Simmons out for the playoffs and Embiid beat up so why jeopardize having him on the floor tonight. The 76ers lack production from their bench with the 26th lowest scoring unit in the NBA. The Sixers defense gave up over 124PPG in five of their seven Bubble games but three of those contests came against 3 of the four highest scoring teams in the Bubble. Teams have been scoring more in the Bubble than during the regular season, but we can’t see these two benches putting up 230 or more combined points. BET UNDER!

ASA top play 10* on: Phoenix Suns -7 over Dallas Mavericks, 4PM ET How about the swing on the line in this matchup as these same two teams met earlier in the Bubble and the Mavericks were a 6-point favorite but are now a 7-point dog. But the situation for both teams is drastically different at this point in time as the Mavs are locked into the 7th seed and Phoenix still has a shot to get in. To put this as delicately as possible, Dallas would be stupid to play their Superstars here or other starters as health is key to make a long playoff run. We don’t expect to see Doncic or Porzingis for the Mavs against this red-hot Suns team Thursday. Phoenix is 7-0 in the Bubble and have played incredible basketball in the restart with Devon Booker leading the way. Phoenix has an average point differential of +11.3PPG in the Bubble which is the best overall number in the league and has won five of their seven games by 7 or more points. Are we betting a bad line here? No given the circumstances.

ASA top play 10* on: Houston Rockets -8 over Indiana Pacers, 4PM ET You know the old saying, “when something looks to good to be true, it isn’t”. That’s the case with this line on the Rockets vs. Pacers game as the line is much higher than it should be and is attracting public money on Indiana. In true contrarian fashion we will bet opposite and play on the Rockets. We feel the Rockets desperately want to hold on to the 4 or 5 seed and avoid the two Los Angeles teams and the red-hot Nuggets in the first round. A win here essentially locks up the 4/5 seed for Houston. The Rockets played yesterday and were embarrassed by the Spurs with James Harden on the bench. The NBA’s leading scorer is expected to suit up today for the Rockets and can literally carry this team like he’s done so often in the past. The Pacers have several starters listed as doubtful today with Turner, Oladipo, Brogdon questionable and TJ Warren listed as out. That tells us the Pacers aren’t as interested in this game as they are Friday’s against the Miami Heat who they will likely face in the first round of the Playoffs. The Rockets hold slight advantages in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the Bubble games and will squeak out a double-digit win here.

ASA top play 10* on UNDER 233.5 Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs, 2PM ET We like the Under in this day game between these two Texas rivals. Both have incentive to play here with the Rockets jockeying for seeding position and the Spurs fighting for a chance to get into the post-season for the 23rd straight year. In the Bubble games the Rockets defense has been much better than the regular season version as they have allowed just 1.076 points per possession in their five Bubble games compared to 1.100PPP they give up on the season. On the year the Rockets have been average in effective field goal percentage defense but in their last three games they are allowing just 49% EFG% shooting which is second best in the NBA over that 3-game span. The Rockets have given up 110, 97 and 112 points in their last three games. We do not see the Rockets putting up huge offensive numbers here without James Harden or Daniel House Jr. in the lineup. San Antonio is fighting for the 8th or 9th seed in the West and are essentially in a must win situation. That is a lot of pressure for a young team without their best offensive player LaMarcus Aldridge who did not come to the Bubble. San Antonio has some inflated scoring and defensive numbers in the Bubble with a pair of exceedingly high scoring games against Denver and Philly which has skewed this number higher than it should be. These two teams met twice in December and produced 216 and 268 total points. The 268-point game was an OT thriller and the two teams produced 38-points so in reality that game would have finished with less total points than today’s Total set by Vegas. The Under has cashed in 7 of the last nine meetings and we predict another Under here.

ASA top play 10* on: Denver Nuggets +5.5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET This is an interesting number considering how well Denver has looked in the Bubble games compared to how bad the Lakers have played. Let us examine this number a little closer. The Lakers were just favored by minus -5.5 points against the Pacers and Thunder in recent games and lost both to teams’ inferior to the current Nuggets. The Washington Wizards have not won a game in the Bubble and have been horrendous offensively with a 1.031 points per possession efficiency rating. Believe it or not, the Lakers have been WORSE than the Wizards on the offensive end with an OEFF of .977PPP. That can’t be said about a Denver offense that is 5th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the five Bubble games at 1.176 points per possession. The Nuggets have gotten a huge scoring boost from Michael Porter Jr. who is averaging over 25PPG and 10RPG in the Bubble. They also got Jamal Murray back from injury who paid immediate dividends in the Nuggets win over Utah with 23-points, 12-rebounds and 8-assists. And we haven’t even gotten to Nikola Jokic who continues to play at a very high level. The Lakers are 2-4 SU in their six games in the restart and are mainly concerned about staying healthy for the playoffs. The Lakers season point differential is +6.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. In the Bubble games they have a negative differential of -7.2PPG second to last of the teams still playing. This Denver team is going to be a dangerous out in the Playoffs and the Lakers just aren’t engaged at this point in time. Easy call with the Underdog here.

ASA top play 10* on San Antonio Spurs +3 over New Orleans Pelicans, 3:00PM ET We like the Spurs in this extremely important game for both teams as they battle for a spot in the Western Conference playoffs. San Antonio has gone to a small-ball lineup which has resulted in a 3-2 start in the Bubble games. The Spurs were also extremely competitive in both losses, getting beat by Denver by 6-points and Philadelphia by 2. San Antonio was just a 2-point dog to the red-hot Nuggets and are now getting 3-points from a struggling Pelicans team. New Orleans is 2-3 SU in the Bubble games and one of the wins came via the Wizards who have a negative differential in the Bubble of -10.5PPG. The Pels other win was against a struggling Memphis team that is 1-4 in the restart. In the last five games for each team the Spurs have a positive point differential of +2.2PPG while the Pelicans are negative at minus -3.8PPG. San Antonio has the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers in the restart, which is significantly better than the Pelicans who are averaging 1.089 points per possession which is 17th among the Bubble teams. The Spurs were +3.5-points in New Orleans in the regular season and won by 4-points. Now they are getting essentially the same number on a neutral floor and playing better than they were back in January. Easy call with the underdog here.

ASA top play 10* on Dallas Mavericks +5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30PM ET

The line on this game is telling you who to bet as the number is not what it should be. Milwaukee was just favored by -9.5 over a hot Miami team, -19 against the Nets and even minus 5 against Houston and are now laying -5.5 to the Mavericks? That’s an indicator that Vegas knows something we don’t so we will be betting Dallas plus the points. The Mavs have locked up a playoff berth but can also move up in the standings and avoid a possible first round match up with a Los Angeles team. Milwaukee struggled in a pair of losses to Houston and Brooklyn then rebounded with a big win over Miami so the sense of urgency to win has subsided for the Bucks off that win and having the #1 seed clinched in the East. Milwaukee is just 3-7 ATS their last ten games against the spread. Dallas is 1-3 SU in the four Bubble games but two of those losses were by 4 or less points. The Mavs are -7-1 ATS their last 9-games as a dog of 5 or more points. Don’t be surprised if Milwaukee rests starters here and the Mavs win outright.

ASA top play 10* on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET We like the Raptors here minus the short number as they have been much better defensively than the Celtics in the Bubble. Toronto is allowing just .967 points per possession which is best in the league since the restart, which is not a surprise considering they are 2nd overall in the league in D.E.F.F. On the season the Celtics are 5th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.073PPP, but in the Bubble they are giving up 1.154PPP which ranks them 16th out of 22 teams. Boston has had some gaudy offensive numbers in their four games since the restart and are coming off a 149-point outburst against the Nets, and they put up 128 two games ago against the Blazers. Those teams are in the bottom four of the current 22-team league in the Bubble in defensive efficiency ratings. Against Miami and Milwaukee (similar to Toronto in terms of defense) the Celtics offense wasn’t nearly as impressive in two losses. The Raptors have the best overall point differential in the restart at +9.7PPG and are 3-0. Prior to the break the Raptors had won four games making this a 7-game winning streak so why wouldn’t we back them here at this price. The Celtics are expecting Kemba Walker back for this game but that can be a negative too as flow and timing will be disrupted. Play Toronto here.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -4 over Dallas Mavericks 6:30PM ET This could be a potential first round matchup in the playoffs and we expect the LA Clippers to make a statement in this contest. We like backing elite NBA teams when they are off a loss which is the case here after the Clippers lost last time out to the Suns. Both teams are a disappointing 1-2 SU in the restart but the Mavs are off their first win over a struggling Kings team while the Clippers are off a loss as we mentioned before. Luka had a monster game against the Kings with a plus 30/20/10 game but that was against a Kings defense that isn’t nearly as good as this Clippers unit that allows just 1.073 points per possession which is 4th best in the NBA. Lou Williams will be back in the lineup for the Clippers to provide scoring off the bench and give the Clippers that added advantage they’ve been missing. The Clippers are 16-5 ATS off a loss this season with an average winning margin of 15.4PPG and 41-17 SU since 2018 when coming off a loss winning those games by 6.6PPG. Los Angeles has covered 4 of the last five meetings including a win most recently in Dallas by 3-points without Paul George. Lay the points with the Clippers.

ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 223 Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic, 8PM ET The Magic are playing without rest today so fatigue could certainly be an issue on the offensive end of the floor against a great defensive team like the Raptors. Orlando got off to a great start in the Bubble by producing 128 and 132 points in wins over the Nets and Kings and shot over 52% in those two games. Then yesterday they faced a Pacers team that plays defense (6th in defensive efficiency) and struggled to score 109 points. Today the Magic face a Raptors team that is 2nd in the NBA in D.E.F.F. allowing just 1.050 points per possession. In two games in the Bubble the Raptors have given up just 92-points and 103-points to the Heat and Lakers who are both better statistically than the Magic offensively. Orlando is a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and will provide a stiff challenge for the Raptors on that end of the floor. Neither team likes to play fast as Toronto is barely above league average in pace of play while the Magic are well below average, ranking 26th in the NBA at 98.4 possessions per game. Toronto has a bigger game on deck against the Celtics and may not be as engaged versus the Magic tonight. In the 3 meetings earlier this season these two teams combined for 199, 210 and 173 total points. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA 10* top play on: Orlando Magic (-) over Indiana Pacers, 6PM ET The Magic were exceptionally good to us the other night in their blowout win over Sacramento and we will come right back with a bet on them again here. The Magic were up 35 after 3-quarters against the Kings and were able to play the entire bench most of the 4th quarter. A rested Magic team catch a Pacers team off a game yesterday and playing their 3rd in four days. Indiana had all five starters log over 33 minutes Monday and have not been a good team without rest this year at 2-6 ATS, 3-5 SU record. Going back further we find the Pacers are 23-30 SU when playing the second night of a back-to-back with a negative differential of minus -2.8PPG. The Pacers have beaten the Magic twice already this season but that was back in November and Orlando is playing much better now. The Magic have won five in a row and covered 9 of their last ten games dating back to the pre-Covid break and have shot over 52% in both games in the Bubble. These two teams are similar in several key statistical categories, but the Magic have elevated their game to another level in the re-start. Bet Orlando.

ASA 10* top play on: New Orleans Pelicans (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 6:30PM ET - This is a critical game for both teams who are fighting for a playoff berth in the West and are 0-2 in the NBA re-start. Memphis is coming off a game yesterday against a big game versus the Spurs and will be un-rested in this matchup. The Grizzlies have been particularly good against the spread in this scheduling situation but that was before the long layoff. The Pelicans lost their opener to the Jazz in a close game then allowed the Clippers to make 25 of 47 three-pointers in a 23-point loss. These two teams are eerily similar in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and point differential. New Orleans was on a 6-1 ATS run on the road leading up to the Covid break which is significant considering these games in the bubble are essentially road games (neutral) for both teams. Conversely, the Grizz were 3-6 ATS their last nine road games and the three covers were against some of the league’s worst teams at Brooklyn, at Atlanta and at Washington. These two teams met in January and the Pelicans won by a combined 38-points and shot well in both games by hitting over 48% from the field. When it comes to shooting the long ball, the Pelicans shoot it better and defend it better than the Grizzlies do and that will be a huge factor in this outcome. Lay the points in a Pelicans double-digit win.

ASA top play 10* on: Orlando Magic (-) over Sacramento Kings, 6PM ET

Orlando went into the Covid-19 break with an 8-4 SU record their last twelve games and had covered 8 of their last nine games. In their first game of the restart they handled the Nets 128-118, but it could have been much worse as they led by as many of 30-points in the game at one point. The Magic had a great shooting night at 53% from the field, 35% from beyond the arc and 89% from the FT line. Orlando averaged just 106.7PPG on the season but put together a great performance Thursday and we expect that trend to continue here against the Kings. Sacramento is the 20th ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.118 points per possession. The Kings defense did not show up against the Spurs in the opener when they allowed San Antonio to shoot 53% from the field, 44% from beyond the 3-point line. The big advantage the Magic have here is their defense that is 9th in the league in defensive efficiency and they will put the clamps on the Kings offensive. The Magic have 8 straight covers on the road or neutral floors and are the bet in this match up.

ASA top play 10* on: Utah Jazz +1.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 3:30PM ET

This is an interesting line with several solid indicators to put us on the Jazz in this match up. Everyone just watched the Jazz play an extremely poor game against the Pelicans and don’t want anything to do with Utah here. We do! The Jazz turned it over 20 times in the opener against the Pelicans and shot just 24% from beyond the arc. We are betting we see the Jazz shoot it much better tonight considering they were the second best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 38.1% and turn it over on average 15 times per game. We also like the advantage the Jazz have with a game under their belt in this unusual environment. Utah is slightly better than the Thunder in average point differential this season (+3.2PPG vs. 2.5PPG), 9th in offensive efficiency compared to 14th for OKC and both are essentially even in defensive efficiency allowing 1.092 points per possession. Utah got balanced scoring with six players in double-digits, three of which were 20 plus. We like OKC, especially their road numbers but this situation clearly favors a Jazz team that have covered 7-straight as a Dog. Bet the Jazz in this one. 

ASA top play 10* on: Portland Trailblazers (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 4PM ET

In this day game showdown, we like the Blazers minus the short number. After a disappointing season, the Blazers have a great opportunity to right the ship in this 8-game mini-series and nab the 8 seed in the West. Standing in Portland’s way is the Memphis Grizzlies who currently hold the 8th seed in the West and a 3 ½ game lead over the Blazers. Portland will have the best player on the floor in Dame Lillard along with a host of veteran talent that has a ton of playoff experience. The Blazers can get scoring from several players on the roster including Carmelo Anthony and CJ McCollum along with Jusuf Nurkic who is back from injury. Memphis has an incredibly young roster and rising star in Ja Morant but the pressure in this 8-game season will be much more than the regular season games. Portland was much better in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.128 points per possession which is 7th best in the league. Memphis is 20th in O.E.F.F. at 1.094PPP. The Grizz hold the advantage on the defensive end of the court ranking 16th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while the Blazers are 27th. The key here will come down to 3-point shooting and the Blazers hold a big advantage when it comes to shooting from beyond the arc. Portland is the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the league at 37.2% while Memphis is 22nd in defensive 3-point FG percentage. The Blazers have a roster full of veterans that have played in big games and this second chance to save their season will have them prepared and focused. 

ASA 10* top play on: Utah Jazz +2.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, Thursday 6:30PM ET

 The wrong team is favored here as the number is set according to public perception which is that the Pelicans must win to get into the Playoffs. That is correct but the Jazz also have something to play for as they currently sit 4th in the West but could fall all the way to 7th which would mean a first round matchup with the Clippers or Nuggets. In this match-up we have the better overall team getting points so why wouldn’t we take Utah. The Jazz had the 8th best overall offensive efficiency rating prior to the break at 1.12 points scored per possession, New Orleans was 15th in O.E.F.F. on the season. There was a much wider margin when it comes to defense between these two teams as the Jazz were 10th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans were 21st allowing 1.11 points per possession. The Jazz were a much better road team on the season too with a 20-13 SU away record and an average margin of victory of 2.0PPG. Utah had the second-best offensive efficiency rating when playing on the road in the NBA. New Orleans had a losing road record on the season at 15-17 SU with a negative differential of -2.8PPG. Obviously, the reason we make the road comparisons is because there is no home court advantage in the Bubble NBA the rest of this season. All three regular season meetings between these two teams were close with Utah winning two of the three and we’ll predict another close Jazz win here.

ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +11.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET

We will go against the Lakers here and take Brooklyn plus the double digits. The Lakers are obviously coming off a pair of HUGE WINS over the Bucks and Clippers this weekend so don’t expect their focus or energy to be at a high level here against the lowly Nets. Not only are the Lakers off a couple big games but they also have the Rockets on deck. Brooklyn on the other hand will be amped to face LeBron and the Lakers. The Nets have a new coach in place now as they (Irving and Durant) recently decided to fire Kenny Atkinson and temporarily replace him with assistant Jacque Vaughn. The Nets have won two straight and three of their last four games, which includes a win at Boston. Brooklyn has cashed in 5 of their last six as an underdog and are a very attractive play here given the circumstances. As we already mentioned the Lakers are off two big games but in reality, it’s five straight as they also hosted Philly, went to New Orleans and played at Memphis. L.A. is 12-11 ATS as a double-digit chalk this season, 8-8 ATS when laying 11 or more points. The Lakers average winning margin at home this season is +9.7PPG which isn’t enough to get the money here. Despite the Nets 11-20 SU road record their average road differential of minus -3.1PPG is 18th in the NBA and slightly below league average of -2.7PPG. The Nets have been a double-digit dog just one time this season and this line is clearly an over-adjustment by the Lakers recent success. Easy call here with the puppy!

ASA play on: Clippers -2 over Lakers, 3:30PM ET

We’ve said it from day 1 and will say it again, the Clippers are going to win the NBA Championship unless some unforeseen major injuries occur. LeBron couldn’t elevate his teammates last year so they added a top 5 players in the league in Anthony Davis along with several other top level vets. But the Clippers have outdone the Lakers with their own additions of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard then recently landed Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris. The Clippers 2nd unit is the best in the NBA and could potentially be a playoff team by themselves. The Lakers are coming off a big win over the Milwaukee Bucks at home and had the perfect game plan to contain Giannis but the Clippers have to many options to control. The Clippers recent resume includes wins at Houston by 15, at a hot OKC team by 15 along with home wins over Philly and a blowout of Denver. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS the last ten meetings and have a home average winning margin of +9.7PPG. LeBron can’t ‘bully’ his way to the rim in this game with Kawhi, Morris and Beverly defending him and we don’t feel the Lakers can adapt. Bet the Clippers as they are at full strength, have the better coach and roster.

ASA play on: LA Lakers +1 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET

We put our head before our hearts when it comes to betting which is the case tonight. We love Giannis and the Bucks and really don’t care for LeBron and the Lakers but the bet here is on Los Angeles. The Lakers have NOT been a home underdog this season and recently they were favored by -6.5-points over Houston and -7.5-points against Boston. Overall as a Dog this season the Lakers are 7-1 SU with an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. LBJ will take this game personally as the race for the league MVP is between, he and Giannis. Giannis should clearly be the MVP with the numbers he’s put up this season with a 31.8PER compared to LBJ’s 25.7PER and he doesn’t have a top 5 player in the league on his roster as LeBron does. Anyway, back to the bet tonight. The Lakers have won 9 of their last ten games and have a recipe to beat the Bucks after watching the Miami Heat do it recently. L.A. can clog the lane with big bodes like McGee, Howard, Davis and LeBron and keep Giannis from getting to the rim where he is most dangerous. The Bucks have been incredible all season long on the road with a a25-6 SU record and a +10PPG differential but this will be a tough place to win given the circumstances. When these two teams met in Milwaukee earlier this season the Bucks won by 7-points but attempted 9 more (home) free throws and shot 41% from beyond the arc which was drastically higher than their 35.8% season average. Even though the Lakers have a big game on deck with the Clippers there is no way they look past the best team in the NBA the Bucks at home. Statement night!

ASA play on: UNDER Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET

This line has been bet down by 3-points already and we were waiting/hoping it would go back up before betting it, but it has leveled off at the current number so we’re playing now. These two teams are heading in opposite directions right now with the Kings winning 6 of their last seven while the 76ers have lost 3 of four. The Kings are doing it with a defense that has been substantially better in 5 of their last six game allowing 103, 94, 112, 101 and 100 points in those contests. They did allow 126 to Washington but the Wizards are one of the fastest paced and highest scoring teams in the NBA. On the season the Kings allow 1.111 points per possession but in their last five contests they are giving up just 1.076PPP which ranks them 8th in the NBA. Sacramento is also one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA ranking 26th in pace of play or 98.4 possessions per game. Offensively the Kings rank 20th on the season in offensive efficiency, and even though they’ve played better of late, they still rank 14th (slightly above average) in their last five games when it comes to OEFF. Philly is also one of the slower paced teams in the NBA at 98.9 possessions per game and without Ben Simmons pushing the ball for them they have slowed to 96.2 possessions per game. The 76ers have the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA on the season and their current numbers are skewed drastically worse from playing both Los Angeles teams. Granted, it was a long time ago and the dynamics for both teams have changed significantly but when these two teams met in November they combined for just 188 total points. Our math models are projecting 214.5 total points in this contest.

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:30PM ET

The Brooklyn Nets are off a monumental comeback win over the Celtics last night and in for a letdown here. Boston went into the 4th quarter last night with a 17-point lead over Brooklyn before Caris LeVert decided to put the rest of the Nets on his back and carry them to the win. LeVert scored 37 of his 51 total points in the 4th quarter but you can bet he won’t produce those numbers here tonight (averages 17.3PPG on the year). The Nets have played 4 road game including last nights OT affair in Boston. On the season the Nets are just 2-6 SU on the second night of a back to back and lost their most recent home game to the Magic as a -3.5-point favorite. Memphis is fighting for the 8th spot in the West and took a hit when they lost 5 games in a row in late February but have won two straight to regain their confidence. The Grizzlies blew the Lakers out 105-88 then crushed the Hawks in Atlanta 127-88. Their defense has clearly been outstanding in their last two games allowing just 88-points in each. The Nets have a negative differential of minus -4.6PPG their last five contests while the Grizz are minus -.4PPG. As a favorite less than -4.5 points the Nets are 9-13 ATS this season while the Grizzlies in the same price range as a dog is 9-4 ATS. The underdog has covered 5 of the last six meetings and we like Memphis to win this one outright.

ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers +10 over Utah Jazz, 7PM ET

The Cavaliers are a better team with their recent coaching change and the addition of Andre Drummond. Cleveland had won two straight games against a pair of the better teams in the East when they beat Miami in OT and then Philly by 14-points. They then followed up with a loss in New Orleans and home against the Pacers. The up-and-down Jazz got a home win over Washington but that was preceded by four straight losses, all of which were at home. Utah is just 4-4 SU their last eight road games and 16-13 SU away from home on the season with a +1.1-point differential. Even though the Cavs are a dismal 9-23 SU at home their negative differential of -6.9PPG is good enough to get a cover in this contest. Let’s face it, a big reason for the Cavs horrible statistics was injuries and a college coach trying to adjust to the NBA. Now with a solid front court of Drummond and Love along with a dynamic guard in Sexton this team should trend up the last part of this season. This is the largest road spread of the season for the Jazz and it’s time to play against them.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Orlando Magic, 8:30PM ET

We like the Spurs in this setting as they are coming off their annual rodeo road trip, then lost at home to Dallas. Now the Spurs catch a Magic team off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in just four nights. Orlando is one of the worst offensive teams in the league and have a 11-18 SU road record with a negative differential of minus -3PPG. San Antonio shoots it and defends better at home than league averages and based on similar opponents in recent home games the Spurs should be favored by 5.5-points here. Orlando struggles to score on the road with one of the worst offenses in the NBA. The Magic are 23rd in offensive efficiency, 25th in scoring and one of the worst shooting teams away from home. The Spurs are in desperation mode if they want to extend their 22 year playoff streak so a win today is borderline critical. Lay the points

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies -3 over Sacramento Kings, 8PM ET

The Grizzlies have lost 4 straight games, all of which were on the road and started with a loss in Sacramento. The Grizz last three losses were against three of the best teams in the West, Lakers, Clippers and Rockets, with the most recent being an embarrassing loss in Houston by 28. Again, these two teams met just a few days ago in Sacramento and the Grizzlies were favored by a point and now they’re laying just 3-points? Sacramento comes into this game off a loss last night in Oklahoma City so fatigue becomes a factor. The Grizzlies have played 7 of their last eight games on the road but it you look at recent home games they are 10-1 SU with several impressive wins over the likes of the Spurs, Blazers, Rockets and Nuggets. Those 10 home wins have come by an average of 10.2PPG. The Kings are 12-19 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of -2.3PPG which is slightly lower than tonight’s number. The home team has covered 8 of the last nine in this series, including both this year. The Grizzlies bounce back after a horrible showing in Houston.

ASA 3* play on: San Antonio Spurs +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

The Spurs are finally home after their annual Rodeo Road Trip which saw them play eight straight road games. Not only were they on the road the entire month of February but it included a schedule of the Western Conferences best teams (Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Thunder, Jazz and Thunder again). With three days rest they are prepared to take on the instate rival Dallas Mavericks. The Spurs won 2 of their three final games against the Thunder and Jazz but were then blown out in their most recent game against the Thunder. We like the situation as good teams bounce back off horrible showings. Despite an overall losing record the Spurs average loss margin is just -1.2PPG this season overall and +1.2PPG at home. In their own building the Spurs are about league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, which should be worse given their overall record. Dallas though does have the 2nd best point differential on the NBA at plus +6.9PPG and are 19-9 SU away from home but those numbers are somewhat misleading based on scheduling. In their last eleven road games the Mavs are 7-4 SU BUT only two of those wins were against winning teams. They also have road losses to the Hawks, Wizards and Suns in that stretch. The Mavs with Luca were recently favored by 4-points at Orlando who isn’t as good as this Spurs team, even without Aldridge tonight. Since 2017 San Antonio is 17-8 SU (68%) at home as an underdog with an average margin of victory of +1.3PPG and covering by nearly 5PPG. The Dog has covered 8 of the last ten meetings. Grab the points!

ASA’s play on: UNDER 231.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors, 7:30PM ET

This the second meeting of the season for these two teams who met last year in the Eastern Conference Finals. We expect a playoff type atmosphere for this contest north of the border between two teams that feel they can win it all this season. The Raptors last thirteen games have been against a very soft schedule with only three of those games coming against a team with a winning record, and all three were against the Pacers. The last time the Raptors faced a team of the Bucks caliber was back on January 22nd against the 76ers and that game ended with 202 total points. The Bucks played an OT thriller last night against the Wizards but because of their depth, fatigue won’t be an issue tonight. The Bucks games have averaged 227 total points per game when Milwaukee is not rested. When these same two teams squared off earlier this season the posted total on the game was 227 and they combined for 220 total points. In fact, nine of the last ten meeting has resulted in 231 or less total points. These two teams are the two best defensive efficiency teams in the NBA as the Bucks allow just 1.021 points per possession and the Raptors give up just 1.042PPP. This game shapes up to be a very low scoring affair with a playoff like intensity. Bet UNDER!

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -8 over Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET

We like the situation as the Jazz are off a pair of bad losses to other Western Conference teams (Spurs, Rockets) following the break which will have them focused here. Phoenix has been a team we played on quite a bit early in the season and were rewarded with profits, but they’ve been fading with a 4-11 ATS record their last fifteen games. The Suns are 18th in offensive and defensive efficiency ratings on the road and an average loss margin of minus -3.4PPG (17th). Utah will lock down the Suns defensively with the 4th best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA when they are at home allowing just 1.052 points per possession. Utah is 20-7 SU in Salt Lake City with an average winning margin of +6.2PPG. Granted, it was early in the season, but the Jazz were favored by -4.5-points in Phoenix this season and now laying a few more points at home? Bet the value and take Utah minus the points.

ASA play on: OVER 229 Phoenix Suns @ Toronto Raptors, 7:30PM ET

Fresh players after the All-Star break led to a 5-1 Over trend last night in the NBA for teams playing their first game after the break. Tonight, the Suns and Raptors meet, and the situation warrants an Over wager on their game. These teams rank 12th and 13th in scoring this season with both averaging over 112PPG. The Raptors are 13th in offensive efficiency, Phoenix is 17th. The Suns prefer to play fast with the 9th fastest pace in the NBA, the Raptors are also in the top half of the league with the 13th fastest tempo. The Suns defense has allowed 116 or more points in half of their last ten games and Toronto has scored 115 plus in 7 of their last ten. The Raptors last game before the break was a horrible offensive showing as they managed just 91-points in a loss to the Nets so expect a focused effort here.   In their last five games these teams are both shooting over an average of 48% which is well above league average of 45.9%. Let’s not forget the league average total points scored per game is 223PPG so asking two of the higher scoring, faster paced teams to scored 229 or more shouldn’t be a problem.

ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET

We realize we are laying a bit of a premium price here with the Heat but the situation warrants a bet on Miami. With the All-Star break the Heat were afforded extra time to work in the new additions prior to the trade deadline and build chemistry moving forward. Miami brought in veterans Iquodala and Crowder to compete with the Raptors and Bucks in the East. The Heat will be better because of the deals and we expect it to show tonight in Atlanta. Miami is just 1-4 SU their last five games but all were on the road against Western Conference foes including the Clippers, Jazz and Blazers. Atlanta was also active prior to the trade deadline and acquired center Capela from the Rockets who is inactive tonight. The Hawks are perceived as an offensive team, but the reality is, they rank 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.059 points per possession and the defense isn’t any better, ranking 28th in DEFF. In comparison the Heat rank 14th in defensive efficiency ratings and 7th in OEFF. The Heat have struggled on the road this season, but the Hawks have the 4th worst home record the past two seasons with a 26-41 SU record and an average loss margin of -3.8PPG. Miami has beaten this Hawks team three times this season by 15, 9 and 14 points already so coving this number shouldn’t be a problem tonight. Lay the points.

ASA 10* play UNDER 227 LA Clippers @ Boston Celtics 8PM ET

At the very root of the numbers today are two season averages that don’t add up to this Total set by Vegas on this game. The Clippers and opponents have averaged 225PPG this season while the Celtics and their foes have averaged 218PPG. The Clippers are 6th in pace of play at home but do play slower when on the road. The Celtics are 19th in the league in pace of play and prefer a slower tempo when at home. What we can count on for sure here is defensive intensity from both teams as the Celtics rank 3rd in defensive efficiency, the Clippers rank 6th and both allow less than 110PPG. Consider this, the Celtics just played the 2nd fastest pace and 2nd highest scoring team in the league in Houston and the O/U was only 5-points higher than this number and the teams combined for 221 total points. The Clippers just faced the 76ers who are similar to the Celtics in style of play and that game finished with 213 total points. When these same two teams met earlier this season the Total set on the game was 217 and they combined for just 211 in OT. We don’t see this game topping 220 total points. Bet UNDER!

ASA play on: Houston Rockets -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 9:30PM ET

You couldn’t really ask for a better spot to play on Houston and fade Boston. The Rockets are off a loss (two in fact) and have historically done well when coming off a beat. Since 2016 there isn’t a better team in the NBA than Houston when coming off a loss as they are 71-34 SU or 68% winners. Boston on the other hand is coming off a solid road win in Oklahoma City. The Celtics are 4-1 SU their last five road contests but two of those wins were against 15-40 Atlanta and 23-31 Orlando. The Celtics have some great road statistics including an average margin of victory of +4.2PPG but if you dig deeper you find they are just 1-5 SU on the road against the top 5 teams in the West and East. The Rockets are 18-8 SU at home with the 8th best MOV at +7.6PPG. This is a great spot to play on the Rockets as a very small home favorite. Lay it!

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET

The money and tickets are flowing in on the Nuggets yet the line on this game has dropped a full point at some Sports Books. We will go contrarian here and bet the Underdog Spurs plus the points. San Antonio has lost 4 straight to kick off their annual Rodeo road trip but now they get a chance to face the team that knocked them out of the playoffs a season ago. San Antonio was recently a 9-point dog in L.A. against the Clippers so you can see for yourself this line is higher than it should be. The last time the Nuggets were favored by 7 to 7.5-points at home was against the Hawks and Kings, who are worse than the Spurs in overall efficiency ratings. Yes, we know the Nuggets are playing well right now, but they have also faced a very tough 10-game stretch that has featured some of the leagues best or hottest teams. We predict a letdown here against the team they eliminated a year ago and who aren’t the same Spurs team as they’ve been in the past. Denver wins at home by an average of +5.9PPG, while the Spurs road differential is minus -4PPG so both of those numbers get us a cover with the underdog in this contes. When catching +7.5 or more points this season the Spurs are 5-1 ATS, while Denver is just 6-8-2 ATS when laying -7.5 or more points. The Spurs are 17-7 ATS the last 24 in Denver. Grab the points!

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +1 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET

The Raptors have won 12 straight games and have a better record at this point than they did a year ago at this time with Kawhi on the roster. The current streak though is a bit of fool’s gold as 9 of those twelve wins came against losing teams with a combined record of 149-315. One of the Raptors wins over a team with a winning record just came the other night against this same Pacers team. Indiana shot well at 52% for the game but were outscored by 8 from the free throw line in the 1-point loss. The Pacers are still working Victor Oladipo back into the rotation and its clearly effected chemistry with their three-game losing streak, but they did play well in the loss at Toronto. The recent success of the Raptors has impacted this line in a negative way as they were just favored by -5.5-points at home and are still laying 1-point here? The Raps were also just favored by 4-points at Detroit recently who are not in the same discussion as this Pacers team. In recent home games the Pacers were favored against Miami and Philadelphia who are not much different than this Toronto team. Indiana is 18-7 SU at home this year with the 12th best average point differential at +4.4PPG. The home team has won 6 straight in this series and 9 of the last ten. Bet Indiana with revenge tonight.

ASA play on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Houston Rockets, 10:30PM ET

We waited patiently to post this bet today with fear the Lakers would move Kyle Kuzma and disrupt the Lakers chemistry. They didn’t and this roster will rally tonight knowing these are the guys they move forward with. Houston was active with a trade for a wing in Robert Covington, while dealing center Capela, which means they are all-in on small ball moving forward. In our opinion, Houston’s math-metrics has failed, and this team is not capable of coming out of the West. These same two teams squared off in Houston less than a month ago with the 3-point underdog Lakers winning by 9-points. L.A. shot 48% compared to Houston’s 44% and outrebound the Rockets by 4. The edge on the glass tonight will be magnified for the Lakers now that Capela is gone so who on the Rockets roster can match up with Anthony Davis? In the last meeting Capela grabbed 12 rebounds for Houston which will be sorely missed. Speaking of AD, he didn’t play in the first meeting against the Rockets and the Lakers still won by 9 on the road. Houston has a road differential of +0.6PPG which is 10th in the NBA but Los Angeles is 17-6 SU at home with an average MOV of 10PPG. These two Western Conference rivals are very similar when it comes to offensive efficiency ratings, but the Lakers hold a decisive advantage with the 4th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Houston’s 15th. This is one of those games the Lakers will be focused and play at a very high level. Lay the points!

ASA 10* play on: UNDER 226 Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET

We are value players and have made a living betting bad numbers which is the case tonight with this Over/Under. The line opened 5-full points less than it is right now and the volume of money being wagered on the game should not have dictated this big of a move. These same two teams have met twice already this season and Vegas had posted O/U’s of 216 and 218 on their games. I’ll trust the experts and bet Under in this game. Yes, we know Damian Lillard is on a ‘heater’ averaging nearly 49PPG his last six contests, but he can’t sustain that type of production and the Nuggets will be focused on stopping him tonight. Denver has the 11th best defensive efficiency numbers at home this season allowing just 1.067 points per possession. The Nuggets have allowed 104 or less points in 3 of their last five home games and on the season the Nuggets home games have averaged 212 total points per game. Denver is the 29th slowest paced team in the NBA overall and at home and they’ll dictate the tempo in this big Western Conference showdown. Portland games at home this season have averaged 232 total points but on the road, they’ve averaged 224.5PPG. The Blazers are a below average shooting team on the road but slightly better than average in opponents FG% when away from home. In the last five meetings between these two teams they’ve totaled: 213, 208, 196, 227 and 222 total points. Bet contrarian here and bet UNDER!

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Dallas Mavericks,  7PM ET

This is a great spot for a bet on the Pacers who are off a home loss and face the Mavs off a blowout home win. Indiana suffered a setback against the Knicks their last time out as they adjust with the return of former All-Star Victor Oladipo back into the rotation. Oladipo was just 2 of 14 from the field and struggled in 22 minutes of play. The Pacers as a whole shot just 42% against the Knicks which was uncharacteristic of them as they are the 3rd best shooting team in the NBA at 47.6%. The Mavs come into this contest off a 23-point win over the lowly Hawks and will now be playing their 3rd game without All-Star Luka Doncic. Dallas has the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA but that’s with Doncic in the lineup who averages a hair under 29PPG. The Mavs will have a much tougher time scoring here against a Pacers defense that is 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.080 points per possession. The Pacers have an average margin of victory at home this season at +5PPG, are 12-6 SU when coming off a loss and have not lost back to back games at home this year. The home teams has covered 7 of the last nine in this series and that trend continues in this one. We are betting Indiana minus the points at home.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 2PM ET

We like the movement and public backing of the Pelicans here with Zion Williamson and will bet opposite with Houston. The value in the number is evident when you compare today’s number with recent Rocket home games. At home Houston was favored by 8 over Dallas, -10.5 versus Denver, -7.5 against Oklahoma City and minus -3.5-points against the Lakers. You can see for yourself the value in today’s line. Has the Pelicans played well of late with the addition of Zion? Yes, of course but this is a very manageable number for the home team Rockets to get. Houston wins at home this season by an average of +7.6PPG, have the 7th best offensive efficiency numbers at home and the 13th best DEFF. New Orleans has the 24th worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -5PPG and the 20th worst DEFF when playing away from home. The Pels have two straight road wins but they came against the Cavs, improving Grizzlies and Pistons but their most recent road game against a quality team like Houston was a blowout loss to the Celtics. Houston should play with a little more energy today considering the Pelicans beat them by 15 just a month ago. Lay the points with the Rockets in this one.

ASA 10* NBA play on: Over 222.5 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET

A few days ago, we successfully played Under in the Thunder versus Kings game but will flip here and bet Over when the Thunder take on the Suns. OKC is scoring more points on the road right now than they do at home with scoring outputs of 120, 113, 120, 112 and 117 in their last five away from home. OKC has been a slower paced team on the season (22nd) but have played faster in their last five games at 99 possessions per game which is 14th fastest in the NBA. The Phoenix Suns are already top 10 in pace of play at 101.9 possessions per game so they’ll push tempo in this one and look to get out and run. The Thunder are slightly better than average in points per possession while the Suns are middle of the pack. Both are near average in terms of defensive efficiency also. The average NBA total points scored is 221 and the current statistics or how these teams are playing right now suggest 227 total points in this contest. OKC is shooting over 51% their last five games while the Suns have allowed opponents to hit o over 48% of their FG attempts. These same two teams met in mid-December and the posted number was 224.5 and they combined for 234 total points. We like the value and will play OVER here.

ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks +7 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30PM ET

Plug your nose with this bet but it’s the logical play to make given the circumstances. Philly is in a scheduling nightmare as they recently played two big games against the Raptors and Lakers prior to beating the Warriors at home. On the horizon for the Sixers are THREE HUGE road contests at Boston, Miami and Milwaukee so looking past the Hawks is to be expected here. The Hawks have recently been blown out on the road in Toronto and Oklahoma City but were competitive in a home loss to the Raptors by 5 and beat the Clippers and Wizards. Atlanta has a losing home record of 7-16 but their average loss margin is -4.1PPG which clearly gets the cover here. Philadelphia has not been good on the road this season with a 9-15 SU mark and a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Earlier this season the Hawks lost by just 2-points at home to the 76ers who have just one spread win their last 9 road contests. Atlanta is shooting over 46% their last five games and they’ll make enough tonight at home to get the money in this one.

ASA 10* play on: UNDER 221 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET

There is tremendous value with this Under tonight for a few different reasons. First off, these same two teams met in early December and the posted Total on that game was 207.5 which is obviously much lower than tonight’s number. In that game, OKC and SAC combined for just 187 total points. Vegas has posted a Total north of 220 this game which right around the league average for the Total points scored in an NBA game. The math for these two teams doesn’t add up to 220 either. Both prefer to play slower as the Thunder are 22nd in the league in pace of play, while the Kings are 27th. Both are average in terms of offensive efficiency with OKC having the 15th overall rankings while the Kings are 21st. Now we factor in the defensive efficiency numbers and OKC is 14th and the Kings 19th.  To sum it up these are two average offenses and defenses yet play at a very slow pace, so we don’t expect an ‘average’ NBA game with 220 total points. On the season the Thunder games have average 218 total points, the Kings are at 217PPG. Sacramento’s scoring numbers are way up their last five games but two of those have been over-time affairs. The Thunder have had a few higher scoring games recently, but they also played three of the seven fastest paced teams in the league. This game just doesn’t add up to 220+ so we’re betting UNDER!

ASA play on: Phoenix Suns +6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

This situation is ideal for a wager on the Suns who are off a loss and catch the Mavs off a win last night. So not only are the Mavericks playing the second night of a back to back, but they are also off a big win against OKC and they have a bigger game on deck against instate rival Houston. Phoenix is off a close road loss in Memphis but had won three straight road games prior to that against the Spurs, Celtics and Knicks. Dallas is just 6-7 ATS when laying 7 or more points at home this season so it’s not like they are a great heavy home favorite. Phoenix on the other hand has been a great underdog this year with a 7-2 spread record when catching 5 plus points. Dallas is 13-11 SU at home this season with an average differential of +6PPG (10th in the NBA). Phoenix is 10-11 SU away from home with the 12th best overall road differential of minus just 1.9PPG. The Mavs are 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS when playing without rest but the average margin of victory is less than 5PPG. Phoenix has covered 8 of the last ten in this series and 5 of six on this court. Phoenix hangs around the entire game and will have a chance to steal a win late. Grab the points!

ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET

We have not supported the Heat many times this season but will here. Miami has been nearly unbeatable at home this season with a 20-2 SU record and one of those losses came in their last home game. We love to back good teams off a loss and this situation couldn’t be any better than it is, especially with the Magic off a game yesterday. Both Miami and Orlando were just beaten by the Clippers, but the Heat are rested while the Magic played yesterday. Orlando is also playing their 3rd game in four days so fatigue will be a factor. Miami has the 5th best average margin of victory at home in the NBA at +10PPG, are the 3rd most efficient offense at home and 7th in defensive efficiency. Orlando is 8-15 SU away from home with a negative differential of -3.1PPG. The Magic have the 25th worst offensive efficiency numbers on the road but rank 7th in DEFF. In their last five games overall, the Heat are shooting over 47% from the field while the Magic are allowing foes to hit nearly that same percentage in their last five contests. Miami has taken care of the lesser teams at home this year with a 11-3 ATS record against sub .500 teams on their home floor. Miami will bounce back here with a double-digit home win.

ASA 10* Play on: UNDER 217 LA Clippers @ Orlando Magic, 6PM ET

These same two teams met recently in Los Angeles and combined for exactly 217 total points, but we don’t feel today’s game gets to that number.  In the most recent meeting, the Magic who are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA gave up 122 to the Clippers but they were also coming off a big game against the Lakers the night before. Orlando is 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.064 points per possession. The team right below the Magic in DEFF ratings is the LA Clippers who give up just 1.068PPP. LA plays a little faster in terms of tempo ranking 8th but the home team Magic are the 27th slowest paced team in the league at just 98.1 possessions per game. Orlando has really struggled scoring of late by failing to reach 100 points in 3 of their last five games and scoring 106 or less in 4 of five. The Magic are 29th in the NBA in scoring at just 103.8PPG and will have a tough time against this Clippers defense. With Los Angeles off a higher scoring game against the Heat we expect a low scoring contest today. BET UNDER!

ASA play on: Orlando Magic -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET

The Celtics have some key injuries heading into this contest but that’s not the main reason for this selection. Orlando has made solid stride this season and are looking like a quality playoff contender in the East. The Magic do it with a defense that allows the least points per game at 104.3 and has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.062 points per possession. Orlando is 13-9 SU on their home floor with the 14th best home differential of +2.6PPG. The Magic have faced one of the toughest schedules in the NBA when at home this season with 12 games against current playoff teams. We like the situation with the Magic off home loss which came after a brutal 6-game West Coast road trip. We predict Boston will let down here following a pair of big home wins, especially with the light roster. The Celtics are 11-9 SU on the road this season but they have lost their last three away from home. Orlando has beaten the Celtics in three straight meetings and 4 of the last five. This is a great spot to fade Boston and back Orlando. Magic by 10.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -1 over Phoenix Suns 9PM ET

We certainly like the situation with a good team like Indiana off a horrible showing and loss in their previous game. We successfully played against the Pacers in their previous game as they were in a bad scheduling situation coming off a win in Denver the night before and facing a red hot Jazz team in Utah. Now Indiana has a day of rest and step down in talent to face the Suns. The Pacers had won 5 straight games leading into the Jazz loss and had won four straight road games against quality foes. Indiana has been very good when coming off a loss with a 5-1 spread run. Phoenix is average (15th) in the NBA when it comes to a point differential of +0.8PPG but have a losing record of 9-15 SU. Of the Suns 9-home wins only 3 have come against teams with winning records. The Suns rank in the bottom third of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings while Indiana is 11th in both when playing of the road. Phoenix is on an 0-5 ATS spread run at home and Indiana will make it six in a row.

ASA play on: LA Clippers +1.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

You know you’ve made it in the NBA when you are referred to by just one name and Luka Doncic has joined that elite status in the Association. With that success and fame though the Mavs have now become a very public team with bettors and have provided opportunities to bet against them in the right situation. Tonight, is that scenario as the Mavs are just 3-6 ATS at home versus winning teams, just 1-6 ATS overall as a home dog or small home favorite of less than 4-points. That streak includes a home loss to this same Clippers team earlier this season. Los Angeles is 8-3 SU their last eleven road games and coming off a solid road win against the red-hot Pelicans a few nights ago. The Clippers are top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency along with average margin of victory at +2.4PPG. The Mavs are top 10 at home in offensive efficiency and average MOV but rank 17th in defensive efficiency. Dallas is playing well their last five games, but the Clippers have been even better. With or without Paul George the Clippers get a big road win tonight.  

ASA PLAY ON: Sacramento Kings +6 over Miami Heat, 5PM ET

*Note this is a day game* The statistical support is underwhelming here as we are going against the Heat at home where they are 18-1 SU but we like the situation and the points with the Kings. Miami is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd game in four days and the second of a back to back after a loss yesterday in San Antonio. The Kings meanwhile had a day off after a loss in Utah. Statistically the Kings don’t have great numbers on the road this year with a 7-14 SU record but they’ve also been plagued by several key injuries. They are finally healthy with Bagley, Bjelica and Fox on the court together and should start trending up with a full roster. Sacramento is just 1-3 SU their last four on the road but two of the losses were at Denver and Memphis by 5 and 4-points. Miami has struggled this season when playing without rest with just 1 cover in seven tries this season. Don’t expect much energy in Miami for this day game and don’t be surprised when the Kings hand the Heat their second home loss of the season.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: San Antonio Spurs +1 over Miami Heat, 3PM ET

This is a great spot to back a veteran, proven team at home off a humiliating loss AND playing with nearly immediate revenge after losing in Miami just a few nights ago. San Antonio just lost at home to the Hawks who they had beaten 21 straight times on their home court. The Spurs blew a 14-point lead in a sloppy 4th quarter. Good team respond after efforts like that and even though the Spurs aren’t contender this season, they are still a proud franchise with great coaching and will bounce back here. Miami has struggled on the road all season long with a 11-11 SU record away from home and a negative differential of -2.6PPG (14th). In their most recent meeting, the Heat shot remarkably well at home where they are 18-1, by hitting 47% for the field and 42% from 3. They typically don’t shoot that well away from home this season and face a well-motivated Spurs team. It’s not often the Spurs are a home underdog as it’s happened just 22 times since the start of the 2017 season and they have won 15 of those games. Not to mention they are 8-1-1 ATS their last ten when coming off a loss. We’re betting San Antonio here and invite you to do the same.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -8.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 8:30PM ET

The Spurs have been up and down, but we like them here off a road loss in Miami a few nights ago. Conversely, the Hawks are off a rare win, just their 3rd in their last eighteen games, and we don’t see them playing well here. San Antonio is 3-1 SU their last four home games which includes a 22-point home win over the Bucks in their last home game. Atlanta has the worst average differential in the NBA this season at minus -13.8PPG. In the Hawks most recent road contest they were just +8.5 point in Brooklyn who rates several spots lower than the Spurs in our power ratings and yet the number is the same in this matchup. Atlanta was drubbed by the Nets by 22-points in that road game. Atlanta is 1-7 SU off a win this season while the Spurs are 6-3 ATS at home off a loss. Current trending statistics have the Hawk shooting under 42% their last five games while the Spurs are hitting over 48% of their FG attempts. The Hawks defense over their last five games has been worse than the Spurs also. San Antonio is 11-9 SU at home this year but have faced 10 teams at home that made the playoffs last year and the Hawks aren’t of that caliber. Atlanta is just 6-14 ATS as a dog in the price range of 5 to 9.5-points this season and their 25th ranked defensive efficiency unit will struggle to slow the Spurs 9th ranked OEFF unit. The Hawks also have the 30th ranked offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. San Antonio by 10 plus points.

ASA play on: 10* OVER 225 Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8PM ET

This marks the 3rd meeting of the season for these two clubs and the first two soared Over the posted totals with 248 and 254 total points being scored in the two games. Those two contests saw 184 and 183 combined field goals attempted which are both higher than league average per game. The Pelicans are 5th in the NBA in pace of play and will look to push the tempo. Utah is 20th in pace but make up for it with the 11th ranked offensive efficiency unit averaging 1.108 points per possession. The Jazz average 109.7PPG on the season but during their current 10-game winning streak they are scoring a hair under 117PPG. New Orleans has also seen an uptick in scoring of late as they are scoring +5 more points per game in their last five games compared to their season average. The Pelicans will be without Jrue Holiday tonight who is one of the teams leading scorers but he’s also one of the leagues best perimeter defenders which makes stopping the Jazz’s Donovan Mitchel (24PPG) that much tougher. The Over is on a 7-3 run in this series and win #8 is on hand this evening.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Orlando Magic +10.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET

We like the Magic in this match up and the double-digits being offered by the oddsmakers. Let’s start with the Magic who have won 5 of their last seven games and getting great contributions from Vucevic, Fornier, Fultz and Gordon. The Magic have been great defensively all season long allowing the least amount of points in the NBA this season, but the offense has struggled. In their last five games though their offensive efficiency numbers are trending up significantly. The Lakers are an impressive 16-4 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory is +10.6 PPG which is on the number here. Of the Lakers 16 home wins though, six of those wins came against six of the worst teams in the NBA and were blowouts by 19 or more points which has inflated their average margin of victory numbers. Tonight, they face a relevant Magic teams that is obviously great defensively and capable of hanging within the spread. Los Angeles is also in a bad scheduling situation here as they just crushed the horrible Cavs and have a big game in Houston next. It looks like Anthony Davis will be out of the lineup again tonight which is a bonus for our Magic bet. Grab the points with the Magic who have been double-digit dogs just once this season and they covered that game.

ASA play on: 10* UNDER 212 Orlando Magic @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET

This match up features the 3rd (Kings) and 4th (Magic) slowed paced teams in the NBA as both average 98 or less possessions per game. Both teams also have some great defensive characteristics which also favors the Under in this game. Orlando allows the least amount of points per game in the NBA at 103.3 while Sacramento gives up 109PPG which is 13th best. Clearly the energy spent on the defensive end of the court affects their offensive numbers which are dreadful. Orlando ranks last in the NBA in scoring at 103.5PPG and are 26th in offensive efficiency rankings. Sacramento isn’t a whole lot better with the 24th scoring offense in the league at 106.2PPG and the 21st OEFF rankings. The Magic have held 8 of their last ten opponents to 101 or less points. The Kings defense has been especially good against other teams in the league with similar offensive numbers as Orlando’s. The last four times these two teams have met the Under has cashed all four times and 7 of the last eight. Bet the value here…BET UNDER!

ASA 10* Play on: Charlotte Hornets +8.5 over Phoenix Suns, 8PM ET

The Suns have certainly overachieved this season thus far but that success has led to some lofty spreads as favorites which is not a role they excel in. When favored by 5 or more points this season they are just 2-4 ATS. Phoenix is 4-6 SU their last ten games and the four wins have all come by less than the spread on this game. Charlotte has played a brutal stretch of games against some of the leagues best teams and now step down to their own level of competition. The Hornets were recently underdogs of +12 at Utah, +11.5 at Dallas and +12.5 at Boston and now the 15-23 SU Suns are laying -8.5 points. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS their last ten road games against a team with a sub .400 home winning percentage which is the case today against Phoenix. The Suns have just 1 cover in their last six games as a chalk. Grab the points with Charlotte.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET

The Celtics have lost twice to the 76ers this season and can’t afford another loss to one of their biggest rivals. In fact, the Celtics had won 17 of the last nineteen regular season meetings with the Sixers prior to the start of this season. Boston is off a pair of losses including a humbling blowout at home last night to the Spurs so expect a focused team tonight. There shouldn’t be any concern for fatigue here on the side of the Celtics as no starter logged over 30-minutes last night. The Sixers have one of the best home court records and average point differential this year at 17-2 and +9.7PPG and they’re only favored by a bucket here? Boston has the 4th best road differential at +5.9PPG and have been very reliable on the road off a loss with a 4-1 record this season. Dating back to the start of the 2013 season, Stevens and the Celtics have won 60% of their games when coming off a defeat, which is the 6th best record in the NBA over that span of time. Philadelphia will be shorthanded without Joel Embiid tonight who has 53-points, 25-rebounds and 9 assists in the previous two meetings this season. The 76ers haven’t covered a number in five straight games while the C’s are 5-1 ATS their last six as a road dog. Boston wins this one outright!

ASA 10* PLAY ON: UNDER 219.5 Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET

The number on this game has been bet up by more than 4-points and we’ll put ourselves on the oddsmakers side here and play UNDER the total. Both teams have injury concerns and will be missing key contributors this evening. In their last five games the Pistons have played well defensively except for a pair of games against San Antonio and the Clippers where they gave up 132 and 126 points. But the Spurs are the 9th most efficient offense in the NBA while the Clippers are 4th. The Cavaliers offense isn’t anywhere close to that as they rank 27th out of 30 teams a 1.052 points per possession. Recently the Cavs gave up 121 to OKC who is 9th in OEFF their last five games and playing well on the offensive end of the floor. In another game the Cavs gave up 118 to Minnesota but the Wolves play fast ranking 8th in pace of play. Tempo won’t be a concern here as these teams rank 19th (Pistons) and 23rd (Cavs) in pace of play or possessions per game. Both teams field goal attempts are trending down their last five games compared to their season averages which means less scoring opportunities for both. On December 3rd when these two teams last met the Pistons put up 127 points on 54% shooting but had Blake Griffin and Morris in the lineup (both out tonight) who combined for 36-points. Our calculation project just 213 total points being scored here. BET UNDER!

ASA 10* PLAY ON: UNDER 215 Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET

Our baseline for NBA average total points scored per game is around 220. The Total set on this game is a few baskets lower than a league average game. Our analytics say this game won’t get to 215 total points with the slowest paced team (Kings) in the NBA involved. The Warriors are average or 15th in the league in pace at 99.8 possessions per game. In their last five games the Warriors have played slower yet with 98 possessions per game. These two teams are bad when it comes to offensive efficiency with the Warriors ranking 28th and Sacramento 21st. Golden State is the worst EFG% shooting team in the NBA at 48.7% while the Kings rank 19th at 52%. These same two teams squared off in mid-December and combined for just 179 points and that was with the Kings shooting a remarkable 60% from the field. The Warriors had Draymond Green and D-Russell for that game (both out tonight) and still only managed 79-points. The Under has cashed 8 of the last 11 on this floor between these two teams and another low scoring affair is on hand tonight.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -3.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET

The Jazz are playing fantastic right now with wins in 8 of their last nine games, including a recent road win against the Clippers. Utah does not have great road statistics, but they’ve played a tough road schedule which has dramatically impacted their numbers. The Jazz have already faced the best teams in the East and have two road games against the Clippers and one against the Lakers.  We are now getting value with Utah on the road here laying a marginal number. The Jazz have some of the best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers their last five games with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. The Bulls have won 3 of their last five games but those W’s have come against the league’s dregs of Atlanta, Detroit and Washington who have a combined 29-72 SU record. The Bulls offense has struggled all season with the 25th ranked scoring offense and the 30th worst shooting team in the NBA. The Bulls will struggle to score against the Jazz defense that is one of the best in the NBA year in and year out. Jazz by 10 in this one.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: UNDER 229 Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8PM ET – If you followed our NBA pick yesterday, we had the Pelicans over the Pacers which worked out well with New Orleans winning 120-98. The Pelicans have won four of their last five with impressive wins over Indiana, Denver, Portland and Minnesota. The reason they’ve been successful is their defense has stepped up dramatically in their last five games. On the season the Pels allow an average of 117PPG and 1.121 points per possession but in their last five games they are giving up just 99.4PPG (1st in NBA) and .994 points per possession (2nd). On the offensive end of the floor the Pelicans have scored 107 or less points in 4 of their last six games and rank 19th in overall offensive efficiency. Houston is one of the highest scoring teams in the league but recently their offense has stalled with 113 or less points in three straight games. The Rockets and their opponents have totaled less than 229 points in 5 of their last six games so they’ve struggled offensively and been better defensively. Pelicans are on a 4-0 Under streak as a dog, Houston on an Under run of 5-1 when tabbed a favorite. The play here is UNDER.

ASA PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans + over Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET

The Pelicans are trending in the right direction, especially defensively where they are allowing just 1-point per possession over their last five games. That efficiency ranks them 2nd best in the entire NBA over that time. The Pels have held their last five opponents to an average of just 40.7% shooting from the field and allow 101.4 points per game in that stretch. Indiana has played a tough schedule of late and are coming off a much bigger game last night in Miami. In their last five games the Pacers are shooting just 41.2% from the field while scoring less than 105PPG. Indiana does have a positive road differential of +1.1PPG but they’ve also played the 4th easiest road schedule in the NBA this season. New Orleans has recently beaten Minnesota, Portland and Denver on the road and are playing their best basketball of the season. Indiana is off their hard-fought 1-point loss to the Heat and will have a hard time getting back up here. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings and get the cash in this one!

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Memphis Grizzlies +6 @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET

The situation really couldn’t be any better to play on the Grizzlies tonight as they are off an embarrassing loss to the Spurs in which they gave up 145 points AND recently loss to OKC on Dec 18th. In that game the Grizzlies held a 21-point advantage that the Thunder eventually overcame to win by 4-points. Memphis held a decisive advantage on the boards, but Oklahoma City benefitted from some ‘home cooking’ with plus +12 free throw makes. OKC also received 20-points, 3-rebounds and 3-assists from Danilo Gallinari who is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, yet the line is the same as a week ago. OKC has an average margin of victory is +5.1PPG at home this season which is not enough to get the money in this game plus they are in a bad schedule situation. The Thunder recently beat this team, are off a big upset win of the Clippers and have the Mavericks on deck. Memphis has covered 4 of the last five meetings and should cash another ticket tonight.

ASA Play on: LA Lakers -3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:30PM ET – We typically like playing on teams in their first game when a superstar is sitting out. Veteran or even young guys that are bench players get a rare start or extended minutes and typically rise to the challenge. We have no problem with LeBron sitting out for load management, err…a sore rib cage as they still have a top five player in the league that will get more touches. Anthony Davis is one of just a few players in the entire NBA that can carry a team himself and a guy that can get 50 on any given night. The Lakers also get Kyle Kuzma back in the lineup so don’t expect a scoring drop-off here. Add in a veteran PG like Rondo and we don’t expect the Lakers to suffer from not having LBJ in the lineup. Don’t get me wrong, LeBron’s absence would be felt over time, but not in today’s game. The Lakers have the 4th best home differential in the NBA at +11.8PPG and have won 6 of their last seven at home. Denver is just 6-5 SU on the road this year and have an offense that ranks 18th in offensive efficiency at 1.084 points per possession compared to the Lakers 6th ranked OEFF at 1.117PPP. Defensively these two teams are essentially even with the 2nd and 3rd ranked defensive efficiency units. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five at home against the Nuggets and will get a win here tonight even without Bron.

ASA play on: LA Clippers -4.5 over Houston Rockets, 9:35PM ET – We are on the Clippers here minus the points in this Western Conference showdown. Clearly these are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA ranking 3rd (Houston) in offensive efficiency at 1.114 points per possession while the Clippers are 7th at 1.114PPP. The Rockets get their points by shooting over 45 3-pointers per game (1st) while the balanced Clippers get 49PPG in the paint (7th). Defensively is where these two teams are drastically different with the Clippers holding the 7th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.043PPP compared to the Rockets 16th ranked DEFF allowing 1.092PPP. Los Angeles holds opponents to 34.2% shooting from beyond the arc which is 11th best in the NBA. Houston is 22nd in the NBA at points allowed in the paint per game so you can see the Clippers have several key advantages. This will be the third meeting of the season as the home team has won both thus far. Houston has played the much easier schedule, yet the Clippers have the better overall statistics. The Clippers have covered 4 in a row at home as a chalk, 5-0 after tonight.  

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks -8 vs. Miami Heat, 8:30PM ET

The Hear will have a hard time getting back up for this game after their marquee game against the Lakers last night at home. Miami hasn’t won a game this season when playing without rest and have lost those games by an average of 17PPG. The Heat are basically an ‘average’ team on the road with a 7-6 SU record and an average differential of -2.6PPG (16th in the NBA). Dallas is rested and lost their most recent home game so expect a focused effort here. The Mavs have the second-best average home point differential in the league at +9.1PPG and are the most efficient offense in the league at home. The Mavericks have covered 9 of their last ten as a favorite while Miami comes into this game 0-5 ATS their last five when playing without rest. Lay the points.

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 227.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET – The Bucks continue to roll through the NBA, and they weren’t slowed the other night playing without MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, beating the Pelicans 127-112. Milwaukee has the deepest bench in the NBA and a plethora of players capable of stepping up to make shots and score double-digits. The Bucks are 1st in scoring at 120.8PPG, 2nd in team FG%, 14th in 3PT% and 1st in rebounding. Most importantly here, they are the fastest paced team in the NBA overall at 105.2 possessions per game and the fastest when playing on the road. That great for our wager here as we know one thing for certain, this will be an up-and-down affair with Memphis. The Grizzlies played a stretch of games without rookie point guard Ja Morant who returned the other night to help lead Memphis to back-to-back wins against Golden State and Phoenix. Memphis is also one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA at 103.6 possessions per game, so they’ll gladly play at the Bucks tempo. The Grizzlies are 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.115 points per possession and only the Wizards allow more points at home than them (110.8PPG). The total on this game is barely higher than league average (221.6) with a pair of teams that like to play fast. We gladly bet OVER in this one.

ASA PLAY ON: NY Knicks +9 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET – The Knicks have one of the worst records in the NBA but they’ve clearly underachieved based on the marginal talent on the roster. New York has a solid core of vets with Randle, Gibson, Morris and younger talent in Barrett, Ntilikina Portis and Payton. The players did not buy in with former head coach Fitzdale’s system and should relate to new coach Mike Miller. New York played well in a 1-point loss to Indiana in Miller’s first game and should continue to get better. Considering the change, we predict for the Knicks going forward this line is not what it should be. New York was just a +9.5-point underdog in Toronto who is better than this Portland team. Speaking of underachieving, let’s talk about the 9-15 SU Blazers. Last season the Blazers won 53 games in the regular season with the 7th best average scoring differential in the NBA at +4.2PPG. Portland had the 3rd best average home differential last year at +8.4PPG which won’t cover tonight’s spread. Portland is just 4-6 SU at home this season with a negative average differential of -1.3PPG. The Blazers have been 9 or more-point home chalks twice this season and they barely covered in overtime against the Hawks and lost outright to the Warriors. Considering the defense been has been horrible their last five games it’s an easy call to take the points and the Knicks here.

ASA 10* play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +1 over Indian Pacers, 8PM ET – At first glance the Indiana Pacers streak of 6-1 their last seven games is impressive but lets take a closer look. In that seven game stretch the Pacers have beaten Memphis twice, Atlanta, Orlando and Brooklyn, none of which have a winning record. You can argue that Oklahoma City is in that same scenario with a losing record, but they’ve played a top ten strength of schedule and Indiana has played one of the easiest. The Thunder have won back to back games against the Pelicans but are just 4-6 SU their last ten games but take peek at who the loses have come against. Portland the Lakers twice, Clippers, this Pacers team and the Bucks. OKC has had a dominating home record in recent years and has a loyal following at home. The Thunder are 92-48 SU at home since 2016 with an average margin of victory of +5.1PPG. The Thunder were recently +1.5 points at Indiana so the line adjustment isn’t what it should be with them the home team. Playing with same season revenge we like the Thunder here by double-digits.

ASA play on: #550 Denver Nuggets -2 vs. LA Lakers, 9PM ET

We will play on the Denver Nuggets here minus the points at home over the Lakers. Los Angeles is certainly the media darling and has garnered a lot of attention with their 17-3 start. But the reality is the NBA set them up with one of the easiest schedules possible to start the season to ensure TV ratings early on and promote them as the team of destiny this season. On a side note, it hasn’t worked as NBA ratings are down this season but that will change as the season heats up. Back to basketball, the Lakers roster is an impressive one, but they’ve played the softest schedule to date and of their 20 games, ONLY 6 have been against teams with winning records and they are 3-3 in those games. The Lakers lofty offensive (8th) and defensive (4th) efficiency numbers are skewed as a result of the schedule. Denver on the other hand has faced much stiffer competition and is 1st in the NBA in DEFF and 20th in OEFF. The Nuggets at home have already beaten Boston, Houston, Philadelphia and Miami who are some of the league’s better teams. Even with that schedule the Nuggets still have an average margin of victory at home of +6.4PPG. Again, the Lakers are 1-1 on the road against winning teams this year yet only have an average margin of victory of +4.3PPG playing their weak schedule. The oddsmakers are begging us to bet the public Lakers here and we won’t bite. Denver has covered 5 straight against the Lakers on this court. Bet the Nuggets.

ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder -6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – The Thunder already own a pair of wins over the Warriors this season and there’s no reason they can’t beat them again by more than this spread. The Thunder have some solid efficiency numbers their last six games when you factor in the teams they’ve faced. OKC played the Lakers twice, the Clippers, Philadelphia, Indiana and Milwaukee. The Thunder lost to the Bucks by 2-points, beat Philly, lost to both L.A. teams by a combined 10-points. OKC has a negative point differential of minus -0.7PPG this season but they’ve faced the third toughest schedule. The roster is solid with veterans Chris Paul, Gallinari and Adams along with Gilgeous-Alexander who is playing great. Dennis Schroder and Terrance Ferguson round out the top six. The same can’t be said for Golden State who look like the walking wounded. The Warriors dressed just 8-players the other night in Utah due to injuries. GST has the worst overall average point differential in the NBA at minus -10.4PPG and the worst home differential at minus -9.0PPG. The line on this contest is slightly inflated but we feel Vegas is trying to keep us off Oklahoma City here. Lay the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Denver Nuggets -5 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET – In our opinion Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in the NBA so it’s hard to believe his record off a SU loss is just 20-18 SU since the start of last season. Boston has gotten off to a fantastic 11-3 start this season but depth is a concern, especially in this situation with it being their 5th straight road game and the higher altitude of Denver. The Celtics have struggled with their shooting of late and we feel it catches up to them here. Boston has hit less than 42% from the field in four straight games. The Nuggets defensive efficiency rating is 4th best in the NBA and they are holding foes to under 43% shooting in their last five games. Denver got off to a slow start but are hitting their stride with wins in 7 of their last eight games which includes home wins over Miami, Philly and Houston who are all comparable to the Celtics. Denver is 44-12 SU at home since the start of last season with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. Lay the points.  

ASA 10* play on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – These two teams have met on this floor already this season with the Raptors coming out on top by 9-points as a 5-point favorite. That was the 5th straight time the Raptors have beaten the Magic and there is no reason to think that streak ends tonight. Orlando hasn’t won a road game this season and have a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG when away from home. Historically the Raptors have had some of the best numbers at home and this year their average point differential of +13.8PPG is second in the league. Much has been made of the Magic’s improved defensive efficiency numbers that rank them 9th in the NBA but Toronto has a better points per possession defense allowing just 1.030PPP which ranks them 5th. Orlando isn’t nearly as good as the Raptors on the other end of the court as Toronto ranks 10th in offensive efficiency, Orlando 24th. Yes, the Raptors don’t have Kyle Lowry in the lineup but VanVleet and Powell will pick up the slack in the backcourt. Lay the points with Toronto tonight.

ASA play on: Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 over Miami Heat, 6PM ET - *Note early tip time* We love the Cavs here who are a team lumped together with some of the worst teams in the league, but are better than expected. Let’s talk line value first. The Cavs are catching a similar number at home as they were against Boston and Dallas recently who are both better than this Miami team as of this writing. Injuries: The Heat have suspended Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow is out and they have health concerns with Dragic, Johnson, and Herro who are all questionable tonight. The Cavaliers have played the 8th toughest schedule when it comes to efficiency ratings and yet they have the 17th average point differential of minus -0.9PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road this season with a differential of minus -2PPG. Cleveland is 2-2 SU at home and their differential is minus -2.2PPG so in both those scenarios (Miami away, Cavs home) the Cavs are within the spread tonight. Let’s not forget the Cav vets are playing hard to showcase their talents for other teams in the league before trade deadline when this team gets blown up. Take the home dog here and the points!

ASA play on: LA Clippers +2.5 over Houston Rockets, 7:30PM ET – Obviously the biggest game on the card tonight is this one and we are betting the Clippers. These two teams are both 7-3 SU on the season and have some similarities when it comes to general statistics but the biggest advantage the Clippers have is defense. Let’s compare both teams: The Clippers are 8th in offensive efficiency ratings, the Rockets are 3rd. Los Angeles is 11th in defensive efficiency, Houston is 20th. To summarize the Rockets, have a slight edge offensively and the Clippers hold the advantage defensively. But the Clippers numbers have come against the 3rd toughest schedule to date while the Rockets stats have come against the SECOND EASIEST! Houston has one quality win on their resume which was at home against the Bucks.  The Clippers on the other hand have beaten Toronto, Portland, San Antonio, Utah and the Lakers. After facing the much tougher schedule the Clippers average point differential is +5PPG while the Rockets are +1.9PPG against a weak one. L.A. has covered 5 straight, the Rockets are 0-4 AGTS their last four against a team with a winning record. The better defensive team wins outright. Play on: LA CLIPPERS

ASA Play on: Utah Jazz +3 over Milwaukee Bucks, Friday 9PM ET – This is simply a bad number set by the oddsmakers and we’ll gladly take the value with the home team Jazz. Consider this: Utah was just favored by -2.5 points at home over a Philly team that is VERY comparable to Milwaukee and a -7.5 point favorite against the Clippers at home (minus Kawhi). The Jazz won both of those games and are unbeaten at home this season. Last year the Jazz were 29-12 SU at home with the 6th best home point differential at +7.9PPG. Going back further the Jazz are 30-16 their last 46 regular season home games with an average winning margin of +4.8PPG (11th best in the NBA). Milwaukee is clearly one of the best teams in the NBA and have some impressive road numbers including a 27-14 SU record away from home in the regular season last year. The Bucks road differential a season ago was +5.6PPG which was 2nd best in the league but that’s barely better than the spread here. The home team has won and covered 4 in a row in this series and with the vast majority of public money and tickets bet on the Bucks, we’ll go opposite and take the home team Jazz.

ASA 10* Play On: #552 Denver Nuggets -4.5 over Miami Heat, 9PM ET – We are getting value here with the home team Nuggets who are off to a slow start by the standards set for them this season, while the Heat are over-valued by a hot start. Miami does have a pair of quality wins on their resume against Houston and Milwaukee, but their other three wins have come against Atlanta and Memphis. With a 5-1 SU record and a public team, the Heat will have the Nuggets full attention tonight. Denver is 71-21 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season with an average margin of victory of +7.9PPG. Last season Denver had the second most efficient offense in the NBA at home last year at 1.172PPG and the 5th best defensive efficiency allowing 1.064PPP. Denver was 34-7 at home last year and won by an average of 10.6PPG. The Heat are clearly over-valued tonight considering they were a 7-point dog at a lesser Minnesota and +11.5 points in Milwaukee. This Nuggets team was one of the favorites to win it all this season. Denver lost their last home contest and will send a message tonight. Lay the points.

ASA 10* play on: LA Clippers -4 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – The Clippers are the best team in the NBA right now and Paul George hasn’t even seen the floor yet. Here’s what we’ve seen in this small sample size of the NBA. The Clippers have played the 4th toughest schedule to date based on opponents offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, yet they have the 11th best point differential at +4.7PPG. They are unbeaten at home with a point differential of +10.4PPG. Utah is going to be one of the better NBA teams this season, but they’ve played the second easiest schedule and current numbers are inflated. Utah faced the Lakers in Los Angeles earlier this season and were plus +3.5 points so the adjustment by the oddsmakers isn’t enough for the better of the two L.A. teams. Just how good is Kawhi Leonard you ask? He currently leads the Clippers in scoring, rebounding and assists. The Clippers just lost in Utah the other night but Kawhi was rested due to load management. He’ll play here and lead the Clippers to a double-digit home win.

ASA 10* play on: Indiana Pacers -5.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET

These two teams have very different season projections with the Pacers expected to win roughly 48 games while the Cavs season win total is 24. That essentially tells us what these teams are all about, so we have a good team off a loss laying a marginal number on the road. Granted, the Cavaliers are off a loss too but again, they are not a good team. Last season the Pacers were 18-17 SU off a loss, Cleveland was 15-47. Last year the Pacers were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points, so we have some value in today’s spread. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA a season ago with a top 10 road defensive efficiency ratings. The Cavs last season had the 3rd worst home point differential at minus -7.3PPG and were last in home defensive efficiency ratings. In the 4 meetings last season the Pacers won by 8 or more points. The Pacers have covered 5 of the last six meetings on this court. Lay the points.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -2.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – We like the situation and will back the home team Celtics here off a loss in the opener. Toronto is off a home win which was much tougher than it should have been against the Pelicans. The Celtics lost in Philly the other night and the main contributing factor was poor shooting by the C’s. Boston hit just 36.7% of their overall FG attempts and under 27% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages a year ago and now they are at home in a more friendly shooting environment. Last season Boston had a top 12 team at home in: margin of victory, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Granted, Toronto had good road numbers too but that was with Kawhi Leonard who is clearly one of the three best players in the entire NBA. Against a bad defensive team from a year ago, the Pelicans (23rd in DEFF), the Raptors shot just 40% a team and benefited from ‘home cooking’ and +15 free throw makes in their win. Boston is 84-49 SU versus the East since 2017 and 57-26 SU at home as a favorite in that same time frame. With the line where it is, we are basically asking the Celtics to just win this game which they’ll do by more than the spread. Boston has covered four straight at home over Toronto and the host is on a 9-0 spread run.

ASA PLAY ON: NY KNICKS +10.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:30PM ET – It’s a fresh start and the Knicks have a clean slate to start the season after tanking last year. New York doesn’t know how bad they’re going to be this season, so we expect a max effort tonight in San Antonio. In fairness to New York they will win more than 17 games this year with a semi-talented roster that can beat just about anyone in the East on any given night. Julius Randle is coming off his best season with 21PPG, 8.7RPG and 3.1APG and can play at a very high level. The backcourt is athletic with Dennis Smith Jr, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock (out) and RJ Barrett. Marcus Morris and Taj Gibson brings veteran leadership and toughness while Kevin Knox and Bobby Portis have huge upside. New York was a dismal 8-32 SU on the road last season with an average differential of minus -10.8PPG which is essentially tonight’s spread AND that record is with them trying to lose to get the #1 pick in the draft! San Antonio returns a roster of veterans and youth and basically stood pat in free agency. They do get Dejounte Murray back from injury who is a budding star, but he did miss the entire season a year ago. The Spurs were 34-10 SU a year ago at home with an average margin of victory of just +6.7PPG. San Antonio was one of the slowest paced teams at home last year which makes covering larger numbers more difficult with less chances to score for each team. San Antonio was a double-digit home favorite 8 times last year and they only covered twice. New York stays within the number here. Grab the points!

ASA 10* play on: Under 211.5 Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors Thursday 8PM ET – Way too many unknowns from a psychological aspect to wager on a Side of this contest but the Under still offers value.  The scenario surrounding KD has the Warriors organization, and the entire NBA in flux right now, and we’re not sure of the impact it has on the current Warrior players.  On the other side we have a Raptors team that has never “gotten over the hump” in a game of this magnitude and even though Kawhi is clearly the best player on the planet, he still needs support from his teammates. Three of the five games in this series has gone Over the total but one game finished with 213 total points and the two most recent game finished with just 197 total points and 211. In Game 4 of this series we saw the combined total field goals attempts dip to just for just 164 and both shot under 45% as a team. The average FG attempts this season in the NBA was 178 and teams averaged 45.9% shooting so both numbers were significantly lower than ‘average’.  In Game 5 the two teams combined for 167 field goal attempts and 74 of those were 3-pointers, which is 10 more than league average. Golden State knocked down 20 of 42 3-pointers or 47.6% which is ridiculous (made 45 total in the previous 4 games) while Toronto was just 8 of 32 from downtown. Golden State won’t make as many tonight and even if Toronto makes a few more it won’t equate to enough points to go Over the number. The Raptors defense has been the big difference in this series as they’ve held the Warriors to just 44%, which is significantly less than their season average of 48.8%. Golden State averaged 117PPG on the year but are scoring just 105PPG in the Finals. Toronto had two great shooting performances in this series, but the magnitude of this game will cause some tightness in the younger roster of the Raptors as they face a monumental opportunity to close out the Champs this evening. We predict another slower paced game by both teams and tremendous defensive intensity in this elimination game. Bet UNDER!

ASA play on: Under 215 Golden State Warriors vs. Toronto Raptors, Monday 8PM ET – Every logical approach to this game screams betting the Warriors and the statistical support is off the charts BUT my eyes are telling me the Raptors are just playing better right now and it’s not as close as the number suggest. So, we’re staying away from a side wager on this game and will bet Under the total. Three of the four games in this series has gone Over the total but one game finished with 213 total points which would win here, and the most recent game finished with just 197 total points. Tonight’s contest has all the makings of another game with less than 200 total points. The last time out these two teams combined for just 164 total field goal attempts and both shot under 45% as a team. The average FG attempts this season in the NBA was 178 and teams averaged 45.9% shooting.  The Raptors defense has been the big difference in this series as they’ve held the Warriors to just 44.2%, which is significantly less than their season average of 48.8%. Golden State averaged 117PPG on the year but are scoring just 104.7PPG in the Finals. Toronto had two great shooting performances in this series, but the magnitude of this game will cause some tightness in the younger roster of the Raptors as they face a monumental opportunity to close out the Champs this evening. The return of KD is also significant for the Warriors defensively as they can defend the arc better which has been an Achilles heel for them this series. We predict another slower paced game by both teams and tremendous defensive intensity in this elimination game. Bet UNDER!

ASA play on: Golden State -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET Friday, Game 4 – There are some key stats that support this wager but in laymen terms it boils down to a great team off a home loss as a favorite. The Warriors were 24-7 SU off a loss this season, 12-2 SU at home off a loss and the last six wins in a row at home off a beat are by an average of 15PPG. More specifically, when Golden State is off a home loss, they are 5-1 SU with wins by 7, 17, 14, 28 and 6 points respectively. The Warriors are 36-7 SU at home the past 3+ years in the playoffs with an average differential of +11.9PPG and only once in that time have, they lost back to back home games. Toronto shot the shit out of it in Game 3 with an effective field goal percentage of 62.8% which is basically unheard of. That is clearly abnormal too as the Warriors EFG % defense was 6th best in the NBA this season at 51%. Granted the Warriors 3-point defense was atrocious in Game 3 and a lot of that has to do with the absence of Klay Thompson and KD. Thompson will be back tonight which should make a difference in how the Warriors defend the Raptors beyond the arc tonight. The Raptors literally had everything go right in Game 3 and we just don’t see that happening in Oakland with the Warriors in a do-or-die situation. As we mentioned, defending the 3-point line will be key and we don’t see Danny Green and Kyle Lowry going 11 for 19 from downtown tonight. Steph Curry is certainly capable of a repeat performance of Game 3, but we must bet the rest of the Warriors play much better than they did in G3. The betting markets are backing Toronto tonight, yet the line is not fluctuating the way the money is flowing. That’s a clear sign to bet on Golden State tonight.

ASA play on: Toronto Raptors +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET Wednesday – The number on this game is extremely short and typically we wouldn’t like going against the Warriors at home with this low of a line, but we’ll make an exception here. This isn’t the same Warriors team as injuries has taken its toll and there are just too many to overcome or justify betting them here. In Game 2 the Warriors got a HUGE boost with Boogie back on the floor as the logged 27 minutes, grabbed 10 rebounds and added 6 big assists and scored 11-points. But now the Raptors will have a plan in place to counter his presence and take advantage of a hobbled Klay Thompson if he’s able to suit up. The other big loss that’s not being talked about is Kevon Looney who has been a big energy guy and defensive stopper for Golden State. Even with Thompson scoring 25 in the last game before being hurt and shooting 46.3% as a team the Warriors managed just a 5-point road win in Game 2. Toronto had a horrendous shooting night in Game 2 (37.2%) so even if they have a less than stellar performance tonight, they can still cover this number. Toronto already has 4 playoff road wins this post season and that includes wins in Philadelphia and Milwaukee which are as tough a venue as you find. During the regular season this Raptors team had a +4.6 point road differential which was 3rd best in the league. Golden State wasn’t their usual dominate selves at home this year with the 11th best home differential of +6.6PPG (down from +7.6PPG last year, +15.9PPG the year before). The Raptors lost just 9 road games by more than 5-points this season which correlates to their 3rd rated offensive efficiency rating on the road and 4th best DEFF rankings. In closing, even if Klay can play tonight, just how effective can he be on one leg? That’s asking too much of Steph Curry and the rest of the team to overcome. This will be close throughout so we grab the points!

ASA play on: Golden State +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8M ET – We are betting the more experienced, defending Champions, off a loss here. Toronto again got a huge game from Siakam in Game 1 but don’t count on a repeat performance here as he consistently hasn’t done that all season long. Leonard was again fantastic for the Raptors but he clearly was laboring throughout the game. The high or energy from the Game 1 win won’t be as pronounced for Toronto in Game 2 as they have a win under their belt. The Raptors are 41-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State is 33-17 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. The probability numbers we’ve run on this game tell us overwhelmingly to bet the underdog off a loss and the heavy factor against the Raptors is winning 6 straight games against the 2 other best teams in the NBA. Golden State was 23-7 SU off a loss this season, 72-19 SU or 79% since 2015. This Warriors team is a remarkable 44-11 SU their last 55 playoff games and we’re betting they bounce back here with a win in the North.

ASA play on: Golden State +1.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET – Thursday Game 1 – The most recent memory in bettors minds right now is the Raptors beating the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals and they have bet accordingly. Give credit to the Raptors in that series win and their defense which was the difference. The Bucks literally didn’t make any adjustments in the last four games and tried to stay with their offensive philosophy which allowed the Raptors to essentially play zone defense. That won’t be a luxury against this Warriors team as they have way too many shooters to space the floor. Toronto could play off several Bucks in the last series but can’t here. The Warriors have had extra rest coming into this game and really didn’t miss a beat when Durant went down with his calf injury. In fact, they adapted and morphed into the team they were without him. Draymond Green has been a beast with Durant sidelined and provides another match up nightmare for Toronto. The Raptors were 40-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State was 33-16 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. Not to mention the veteran team and defending champion is an underdog. Before we go, we want to leave you with this. Is it more impressive that Kawhi Leonard was able to drag this team and roster to the Finals than the team LeBron took to the Finals with Love and Irving? Yeah, Leonard has been outstanding but even he can’t carry this team past the Champs. Play on Golden State in Game 1.

Milwaukee Bucks +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Saturday, Game 6 – The Raptors have had role players step up in big moments this series, but now that the spotlight and expectations are clearly high in this elimination game, we don’t expect the same production. Kawhi Leonard has been ridiculous in this series and I would argue has done more with less than LeBron and the Cavaliers a few years ago when they won their Ship. There is a reason the Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has been mentioned as a potential coach of the year and he’ll adjust here. If Giannis is on the floor then Bledsoe can’t be. The Bucks need to surround Giannis with shooters so the Raptors can’t collapse on him. If both Bledsoe and Giannis are on the floor, then Giannis needs to move to the baseline where he can roam behind the D. The Bucks are 10-4 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +9.8PPG. The Bucks are 62-21 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-17 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Bucks road differential of +5.6PPG was second best in the NBA this season behind only the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee had the 4th best road offensive efficiency at 1.123PPG and defensive efficiency allowing just 1.068PPP which was best in the league. We won’t ignore the Bucks 22-3 SU record off a loss, 10-2 SU on the road. The clincher for us though with this wager is value. The Bucks were favored by 3-points in the last game on this floor and are now a dog of 2 or more points. That is an over-reaction by the betting public and it’s always best to bet value over “feelings”. This series gets extended to a game 7.

ASA  play on: Milwaukee Bucks -7 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Thursday, Game 5 – The Raptors sent a message in the last two games to remind everyone they had the 2nd best record in the NBA this season for a reason. But now that the venue changes and the teams head back to Wisconsin, we can expect Milwaukee to get a resounding win on their home court. Milwaukee had the second-best home record in the NBA during the regular season with a 33-8 SU record and an average differential of plus +12.1PPG. The Bucks are 10-3 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +11.1PPG which balloons to +14.7PPG at home. The Bucks are one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% and shoot 35% from beyond the arc and will find their groove again back at the Fiserv Forum. In Game 4 of this series the Raptors got HUGE production out of their bench and role players but that certainly won’t carry over on the road. Clearly the Raptors rely heavily on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue, along with a nagging knee/quad is becoming a huge factor for the Super Star as the playoffs wear on. The Bucks are 62-20 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-16 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Nobody said this series was going to be an easy one for the Bucks and winning in Toronto is certainly a tough task, but back at home the Bucks get a much-needed win by a double-digit margin.

ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Milwaukee -3 over Toronto, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET

We’ve clearly lost value on this game with the Bucks going from an underdog in Game 3 to a favorite in tonight’s game. The Bucks starters were HORRENDOUS in Game 3, yet still could have won in double over-time. How bad were Milwaukee’s starters you ask? Middleton, Bledsoe, Antetokounmpo and Mirotic were a combined 14 of 59 from the field or 24% from the field. Those four also combined to make just 3 of 22 3-pointers. The Raptors benefitted from a non-call on a Kawhi Leonard double-dribble that led to an uncontested dunk at a critical juncture. Giannis was also called for his 6th foul on a questionable call which forced the Bucks superstar to the bench. Milwaukee has a near perfect record this season when coming off a loss with a 22-1 SU record. That’s not a coincidence either as a good coaching staff clearly knows how to adjust from one game to the next. And those wins have come by an average differential +15.4PPG. The Bucks had the 4th best road offensive efficiency rating on the road this season of 1.123PPP and a defensive efficiency of 1.068PPP which was 1st. Milwaukee’s +5.6 average point differential away from home was second best in the NBA this season. The Bucks bounce back in a big way with a double-digit win!

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +3 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 4 Monday – You know us, we are betting numbers and value, not teams. The play here is Portland at home. Teams down 0-3 in the past have not done well historically but the oddsmakers have factored that in and the over-adjustment is too great to pass up. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-12 SU record, 14-5 their last nineteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. In Game 3 the Blazers made just 40% of their field goal attempts, 31.4% from beyond the arc. Portland has the 8th best overall and 3-point shooting percentage at home this season.The Warriors are 3rd in overall shooting percentage defense but 13th in defending the 3-point line. Damian Lillard has had a tough series, but we expect him to bounce back here after a dismal -23 differential in the last game. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. Portland was a home underdog just five times this season and they won four of those games outright. The movement of the line has us on Portland in this game.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 3 Saturday – Fatigue was clearly a factor in Game 1 of this series as the Blazers were coming off a huge 7-game series in Denver with four games played in the higher altitude. In Game 2 they had a little more rest and were off an embarrassing showing in Game 1 so the effort and attitude was drastically better. Portland led by 15 at halftime and had a legitimate chance to steal a road win Golden State before falling short late. Based on the money and tickets being bet on this game its clear the public is backing Golden State as a dog in Game 3 but we won’t fall for the trap. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-11 SU record, 14-4 their last eighteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. Back at home expect another improvement in Game 3. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. The Warriors had some very good road differentials and efficiency numbers but that was with KD and now they are just 4-6 ATS their last ten on the road. Portland is going to win this home game.

ASA 10* play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Friday, Game 2 –

The results of Game 1 and the statistics therein have us betting the Bucks again in Game 2. Milwaukee is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% but in Game 1, on their home court, the Bucks managed just 39.8% as a team. From beyond the 3-point line they shot just 25% as a team which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 35%. We predict a return to norm in Game 2 and expect the Bucks to have a much better shooting night. As we said in our analysis of Game 1, the Raptors rely too much on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue became apparent late in the game. If history holds true, Kyle Lowry won’t have the night he did in Game 1 as he hit 10 of 15 FG attempts which is abnormal by his previous standards. Lowry was dreadful in three outings against the Bucks in the regular season as he averaged 6.3 points on 7-of-30 shooting from the field (1-of-20 from three) to go along with 8.3 assists and 5 rebounds.  The fact that Lowry failed to score a single point on 11 tries from the field in the 122 possessions he went up against Bledsoe in all three losses the Raptors had against the Bucks this year. Milwaukee will make the adjustment here and have Bledsoe on Lowry which will again put more pressure on Leonard. The Bucks have several players that can step up and fill the void if one of the stars isn’t hitting as was the case in Game 1 with Brook Lopez. The Bucks are 61-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 36-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 69 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee has now beaten this Raptors four of five this season and rolls to a Game 2 win by double-digits.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +7 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 2 Thursday – After breaking down Game 1 of this series we like the Blazers chances to cover the spread in Game 2. First off, Terry Stotts is a good coach and will adjust in guarding Steph Curry in the pick-n-roll where he had the most success in the opener. Secondly, the Blazers were coming off a huge 7-game series in Denver and fatigue was clearly a factor. Now they have had a little more rest and are off an embarrassing showing in Game 1 so expect a much better effort here. The Warriors did lose two home games in the opening round to the Clippers and their average home differential is just +4.5PPG in the post-season. In the opener the Warriors were up only 6-points going into the fourth quarter before the Blazers collapse. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-10 SU record, 14-3 their last seventeen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). So, expect a return to the more ‘normal’ statistics here which will lead to a Blazers cover. Ask yourself this, with Golden State off a commanding win in the opener by 22-points, why did this line open higher, with the money and tickets coming in on the Warriors, yet the line went down? Portland had the 8th best road differential in the league this year at 0PPG so they are more than capable of keeping this game close throughout.

ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Wednesday, Game 1 - The Bucks are 60-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 35-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 68 wins have come by double-digits. Eric Bledsoe is averaging 16PPG in the playoffs on 47.8% shooting, Khris Middleton had a few rough shooting nights in the first two rounds but did average 16PPG in the series against the Celtics. Pat Connaughton and George Hill also provided some invaluable minutes off the bench for the Bucks in the first two rounds. Not to mention the Bucks get starter Malcolm Brogdon back for this series who makes them even deeper yet. Throw in the ‘bigs’ of Lopez, Mirotic and Ilyasova and you have a floor-spacing, 3-ball-makin bunch that are tough to defend. With the floor spaced it only make Giannis that much tougher to defend as he gets to the rim at will or drives and unselfishly kicks to open shooters. Game 7 of the Toronto/Philly series is a perfect example of why the Raptors won’t win this Eastern Conference Finals. You can’t rely solely on Kawhi Leonard to win a series. Leonard made a miraculous shot to win Game 7 against Philadelphia and put up 41 points in the process. It took Kawhi 39 shots to get to 41 and there were several opportunities for other players to take open shots, but they were reluctant to do so. Kyle Lowry is a notorious choker in the post-season, Pascal Siakam is an up-and-comer but still young and in an unfamiliar role. Marc Gasol is an adequate center but past his prime and not a rim protector. The rest of the supporting cast for the Raptors just isn’t good enough to provide Leonard with help to win this series or Game 1. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee beat this Raptors three of four this regular season and rolls a Game 1 win by double-digits.

ASA’s 10* play on: OVER 220.5 Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors, Game 1 Tuesday 9PM ET – The injuries to the Warriors has a dramatic impact on this line and what we expect Golden State’s game plan to be going into this series. As we saw in the clinching win over the Rockets, the Warriors reverted back to the “Klay and Steph” show which saw them play fast and attempt a ton of 3’s. Golden State chucked 38 three pointers in the game which was four more than their league average of 34. The Warriors were the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA this season, averaged 1.160 points per possession and 117.7PPG. This Golden State team was not as good defensively as past editions as they finished the season ranked 13th in defensive efficiency. Portland is coming off a touch series with a slower paced Nuggets team (4th slowest in paced during the regular season) and will enjoy a faster paced tempo here. Portland was the 3rd most efficient offensive in the NBA during the regular season averaging 1.146 points per possession and 114.7PPG. The Blazers defense ranked outside the top half of the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.105PPP. Neither team does well defending the 3-pointer (13th and 15th) and both shoot it well (8th and 3rd). During the regular season the oddsmakers posted totals of 218.5 (Nov 23rd), 227, 226 and most recently 235 on Feb 13th. In other words, the most recent meeting between these two teams had a total of 235 and now we have a number of 220.5, which oh-by-the-way, is less than the league average of total points scored per game during the regular season. It all adds up to a higher scoring game. BET OVER!

ASA 10* play on: Portland Trailblazers +5.5 over @Denver Nuggets,330pm ET – We won’t ignore the fact that the Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but let’s also recognize that Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers, they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who shot over 46% during the regular season and made 36.1% of their 3-point attempts. Granted neither team is shooting it well in this series, but I trust Lillard and McCollum way more than I do the Nuggets shooters. Prior to the last two games of this series the previous eight games had an average differential of +5.25PPG and we expect this elimination game to go to the wire again. Grab the points and the underdog.

ASA play on @Philadelphia 76ers +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET Thursday – We are playing on the ‘juvenile’ 76ers in this must win game at home tonight. It’s obvious the young 76ers still don’t full grasp the situation when Embiid is looking at cell phones on the bench, laughing in press conferences and easily distracted during games in the Playoffs. Ben Simmons isn’t much better, but when focused this team is clearly capable of beating anyone on any given night. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris who are all legitimate scorers in the NBA. Philly has won 75% of their games when coming off a loss and playing at home this season. The home team has won 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams with the average margin of victory by the home team in those seven wins being 18.4PPG. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Take the home dog as Philadelphia will extend this series.

ASA play on: OVER 220.5 Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – The Bucks had a horrible shooting night in the opener of this series and only managed 90 points. Then in Games 2 and 3 they put up 123 points, then followed up with 113 in Game 4. Based on the pace of play numbers from Game 4 the total points scored should have been much higher than the 214 that was put up. Boston and Milwaukee combined for 190 field goal attempts (league average 178 this season) but both had a terrible night from beyond the arc (Under 23% each) so the game finished with a relatively low total. Milwaukee is going to score in this game as they have at home in the post season. In four home contests the Bucks have put up 120 or more points in 3 of four games. Milwaukee wants to play fast as evidenced by their 104 possessions per game at home this season which is tops in the NBA. That faster pace has led to the Bucks being the highest scoring team in the league at home with a 119.9PPG average. Boston wasn’t particularly fast paced on the road this season, but they were 15th (average) in points scored on the road at 110.7PPG. The Over has cashed 17 of the last 24 meetings and we expect that trend to continue here.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10:30PM ET – This has been a great series and even though everyone has the Rockets or Warriors in the NBA Finals, one of these two teams certainly could represent the West. With the dust settled after the first four games of this series the total differential separating these two teams is just 2 total points. All four games have been tight, and the dog has covered three straight. Even when we go back to the regular season, we find those four games were decided by an average of just 5PPG. Denver has some fantastic home efficiency and overall statistics at home this season, but Portland has some great numbers too. The Blazers were 14th in road defensive efficiency and 7th in offensive efficiency. Portland was 7th in average point differential on the road at 0PPG. Denver has struggled with their shooting in the previous five games as they’ve hit just 42.7% of their field goal attempts. The Blazers are on a solid 4-1 ATS streak when coming off a straight up loss and will keep this game close throughout. Grab the points and the dog here!

ASA play on Philadelphia 76ers -2 over Toronto Raptors, 3:30PM ET Sunday – We are going contrarian here and don’t expect Toronto to bounce back off a loss in the previous game. It’s obvious the Raptors don’t have enough talent surrounding Leonard and in today’s NBA one player can’t get it done. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris and it’s proving to be too much for Toronto to overcome. The Raptors will also be short Siakam here which makes Leonard’s job that much more difficult. The home team has won 7 of the last nine meetings between these two teams and all seven wins came by more than today’s spread. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Toronto was 18-8 SU off a loss this season but just 6-4 on the road in that situation. A clear indicator that the 76ers are still being under-valued by the oddsmakers is their 6-1 ATS run, 4-1 spread record their last five home games. Philly grabs a commanding 3-1 lead in the series with a home win today!

ASA play on: Houston Rockets -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 8:30PM ET – Everyone has jumped off the Rockets bandwagon after two losses to start this series but we’re not one of them. We bet Houston to win this series and even though they must win 4 of five against the Warriors to get it done they are still capable of doing so. Houston’s numbers on the season are just as good as Golden State in many key statistical categories. These two teams were both #1 and #2 in offensive efficiency and were #13 and #17 in defensive efficiency so they are very even teams. Houston beat a very good Utah team at home in the opening round by 32 and 20 and have an average point differential of +7.1PPG at home during the regular season. The Rockets were 31-10 SU at home during the regular season and most importantly, 13-4 SU at home when coming off a loss. Let’s not forget this Rockets team took Golden State to 7-games a year ago and are better overall this season. Golden State has some fantastic numbers on the road this season but in this scenario (up 2-0) we can see a letdown by the Champs. The money and line indicators clearly support a bet on Houston in this game.