Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-21-21 | Wyoming v. Kent State OVER 59 | Top | 52-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
#221/222 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 59 Points – Kent State vs Wyoming, Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET - Kent has one of the top offenses in the country (8th in total offense) and one of the worst defenses in the country (122nd in total defense). They also play at an extremely fast pace ranking behind only Western KY and Ole Miss when it comes to other bowl teams. Throw out their game vs FCS VMI and this defense has allowed at least 30 points in 9 of their 11 games while the offense has scored at least 30 in 7 of their last 8 games. The Wyoming offense struggled at times this year but that should all change today facing the worst defense they’ve seen this year. Mid season with Chambers at QB, the Cowboys went on a 3 game stretch scoring just 14, 0, and 3 points facing all defenses much better than Kent including 2 in the top 30. That stretch really affected their overall offensive numbers. Wyoming made the switch at QB to Williams and he averaged 25 PPG in his 5 starts. They had great offensive success in their 2 games in the non-conference vs MAC teams the Cowboys scored 50 vs Northern Illinois and 45 vs Ball State. Both teams run the ball very well (Kent 4th nationally / Wyoming 27th) and that is a weakness of both defenses (Kent 106th nationally / Wyoming 95th). Both teams will run at will here opening up the passing game for big plays. This game is in Boise and the weather looks great with temps in the mid 30’s and little wind. Both are cold weather teams so temps in the mid 30’s won’t affect either side. Our projections have both teams topping 30 points which puts this one OVER the total. |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
#331/332 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points – Minnesota vs Chicago, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Minnesota offense has to be licking their chops entering this game facing a Chicago defense that has struggled the last 2 weeks and is now down a number of key players. The Bears potentially will be without all 4 starting DB’s + 3 reserves with that unit. The top 4 are currently on the reserve Covid list and unless cleared by Monday they won’t be playing in this game. The defense has been struggling anyway allowing 29 or more points in 5 of their last 7 games including 78 the last 2 weeks alone. The only 2 offenses they were able to slow down were Detroit & Baltimore who rank 28th and 19th in YPP offense. Minnesota ranks 7th in the NFL averaging 5.9 YPP and they’ve put up at least 26 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Defensively the Vikings are headed downhill as they’ve given up at least 28 points in 4 straight games and 6 of their last 8. They are allowing a TD on almost 28% of opponents red zone plays which is the worst mark in the NFL. Chicago’s offense is coming around. They put up 30 points last week on Green Bay and averaged 6 YPP. A week earlier they scored 22 on Arizona. Those 2 teams rank 5th and 6th in the NFL in total defense. Minnesota ranks 29th in that category. We expect the Bears offense to play well and put up points here. The weather in Chicago looks very good for this time of year with temps in the mid 30’s and light winds at game time. Take the OVER in this one. |
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12-20-21 | Tulsa v. Old Dominion +9.5 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
#220 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Old Dominion +9.5 over Tulsa, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - We can look at ODU’s year almost as 2 separate seasons. They started the year losing 6 of their first 7 and ended winning 5 straight. The positive run came with the Monarchs switched starting QB’s with Wolff taking over for their game vs Western Kentucky. He led them to a 5-1 record with their only loss coming vs Western Kentucky which wasn’t a surprise with WKU’s powerful offense (they beat App St in bowl game). In those 6 games Wolff threw for over 1700 yards with 10 TD’s. Prior to that they had thrown for only 850 yards and 5 TD’s in 6 games. They also inserted RB Olson right around that time and he ran for over 100 yards in 6 of his 7 starts. Throwing out their game vs FCS Hampton, the Monarchs averaged 19 PPG over their first 5 and when they made the switch at QB & RB they averaged 33 PPG including a win @ Middle Tenn St who just beat Toledo in their bowl game as 10 point dogs. In fact, Conference USA teams have shown the league may have been underrated as they’ve been underdogs in all 5 of their bowl games thus far, winning 3 of those games outright with a 4-1 ATS mark. Tulsa was 6-6 as well on the season but 5 of their 6 wins came by 8 points or less. The only double digit win they had this season was vs Temple, one of the worst teams in the nation. They were outscored on the year (26-27 average score) and their QB Brin had a tendency to give it away throwing 16 picks on the season – the most in the nation. Tulsa also comes into this game without 3 of their assistant coaches who’ve moved on including their DC. We like the way ODU is playing with confidence the 2nd half of the season and we like their shot to win this game outright. We’ll take the points as a nice cushion. |
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12-19-21 | Falcons v. 49ers -9 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
#324 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -9 over Atlanta, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - While these 2 teams have similar records – SF 7-6 / Atlanta 6-7 – this is a mismatch which is why the line sits where it is. The Niners rate as the 8th best team in the NFL DVOA per Football Outsiders ranking 6th in offense and 8th in defense. Atlanta ranks dead last in the NFL DVOA and 29th in offense, 30th in defense. Atlanta has beaten the lower tier teams in the NFL (Jacksonville, NY Jets, NYG, etc…) but when facing solid teams, they’ve been smoked. They’ve played only 5 games (out of 13) this season vs teams that currently have a winning record. The Birds are 0-5 both SU & ATS in those games and they’ve been outscored 178-51 in those games for an average score of 35-10! All of those losses came by at least 15 points and they were not fluky losses as Atlanta was outgained 6.0 YPP to 4.4 YPP in those 5 games combined. SF is playing their best football of the year winning 4 of their last 5 despite being on the road 3 of the last 4 weeks. They’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 7 teams that are currently above .500 with 5 of those teams landing in the top 10 overall DVOA. Despite the difference in SOS, the Niners have a +0.5 YPP differential and a +28 point differential on the season while Atlanta is -0.5 YPP with a -108 point differential (2nd worst in the NFC ahead of only Detroit). Even in the 6 games Atlanta has won this year, they were outgained in 5 of those contests. San Fran is making a push for the playoffs and this is a crucial game at home. They are facing an Atlanta team that is much worse than their record and playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. We like the Niners to roll to a double digit win in this game. |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts OVER 45.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 Points – New England vs Indianapolis, Saturday at 8:20 PM ET - We understand the Pats defense has been rolling allowing just 10 PPG over their last 7 but we believe those numbers are drastically over inflated based on competition. If we throw out their game @ Buffalo in which the weather was brutal (snow & 40+ MPH wind), the Patriots have faced just ONE team ranked in the top half of the NFL in total offense during that stretch. That was the Chargers who hit them for 24 points and averaged 6.4 yards per play. Tonight they face an Indy offense that is rolling scoring at least 30 points in 7 of their last 8 games. We think the Colts will put up numbers on offense here. Much is being made of the New England defense, however their offense has been very solid. They have scored at least 24 points in 9 straight if we throw out their game @ Buffalo which was discussed above. They averaged 33 PPG during that run. Both of these offenses rank in the top 8 in 3rd down conversion % and in the top 10 in red zone scoring attempts per game. We look for both of these teams to get to at least the mid 20’s which puts this over the total |
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12-18-21 | Oregon State -7 v. Utah State | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
#215 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State -7 over Utah State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - USU could be a bit overvalued here after destroying San Diego State in the MWC Championship game a few weeks ago. SDSU was not at full strength for the game with a number of players out with Covid which not only affected the game, but their practice situation leading up to the game. USU played the much weaker schedule especially down the stretch where they faced just 1 bowl team in their final 7 regular season games and that was Wyoming, a game USU lost 44-17. The Aggies defense does not match up well with Oregon State’s offense. They ranked 82nd nationally stopping the run (allowed 163 YPG) yet faced only 3 teams ranked in the top 40 in rushing and 6 teams ranked below 95th in rushing. In their games vs top 40 rushing teams they allowed 437 yards on the ground (Air Force), 363 (Wyoming), and 221 (BYU). Oregon State averages 219 YPG rushing which is 13th nationally and will control the trenches here. The overall numbers favor OSU as well despite playing the much tougher schedule. The Beavers finished with a YPP differential of +0.7 and USU was +0.2 for the year. Motivation is always something that needs to be addressed in early bowl games and both will bring their best here. Many times a team from a Power 5 conference may not be thrilled to be playing a team from a lesser conference but that won’t be the case here as Oregon State has not been to a bowl game since 2014 so they are thrilled to be here. If both teams bring it, OSU is the better team and should win by more than a TD. |
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12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina -10.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-41 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
#203 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Coastal Carolina -10.5 over Northern Illinois, Friday at 6 PM ET - Based on this year’s stats and our film study, Coastal is the much better team in this match up. We also think there is some line value with Coastal. They were just favored at South Alabama by 14.5 to end the season and now laying just 10.5 on a neutral vs Northern Illinois team we have power rated almost dead even with South Alabama. CC had just 2 losses this year by a combined 5 points. They were +165 YPG and +2.3 YPP on the season with a average winning margin of +20 points per game. NIU won the MAC but they’ve been fairly shaky all season. If you throw out their game vs FCS Maine, the Huskies were outgained by 82 YPG on the season and had a YPP differential of -0.7. Despite winning the MAC they were outscored on the season as well. Their numbers equated to a .500 or below team. CC is far superior defensively allowing 122 fewer YPG than NIU. Offensively they are a bit closer however on a YPP basis the Chanticleers average a full 1.6 YPP more than the Huskies. Coastal seems to be motivated for this game after losing in this bowl last year in OT vs Liberty. QB McCall, who leads the nation in passing efficiency and yards per pass attempt (12.2), has stated they really want this game for the seniors and they are completely focused on winning this bowl game. If both teams play their “A” game, this is a blowout. The only chance NIU has is if Coastal is flat and uninterested or they turn the ball over a bunch. Lay the points. |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
#301 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -3 over LA Chargers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - KC playing as well as anyone in the AFC right now winning 6 straight and 8 of their last 10. After struggling early in the season, their defense has been outstanding allowing single digits in 4 of their last 5 games and they’ve allowed just 13 PPG over their last 8 games. LA won the first meeting of the season @ KC 30-24. However the Chiefs outgained the Chargers but had 4 turnovers in the game (0 for LA) including 3 giveaways inside the LA 40 yard line. While KC’s defense has kicked it in high gear, the Chargers defense has gotten worse as the season has progressed. They have allowed an average of 29 PPG over their last 9 games. LA really has very little to no home field advantage as many times their opponent has as many fans in the stadium as the Chargers do. They are just 3-3 SU at home with their 3 wins coming vs Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, and Cleveland, all teams that are currently .500 or below. The Chiefs are 3-2 SU on the road this year outgained their opponents 445 to 337 and outscoring them by an average of 30-24. The road team in this AFC West battle has won 8 of the last 10 meetings outright. As these 2 battle for the lead in the division (KC up by 1 game over LA) we’ll side with the experienced team, QB, and coach who is used to this situation. Lay the FG with KC. |
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12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona -2.5 over LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Rams simply aren’t playing very well. Prior to last week’s win over Jacksonville they had lost 5 straight vs the number by 62 points losing by an average of 12 points to the number. They are 5-4 SU over their last 9 games with their wins coming vs Houston, Jacksonville, Detroit, NY Giants, and Seattle with Geno Smith at QB. The first 3 listed rank 29th, 30th, and 31st DVOA on Football Outsiders. Anytime they’ve faced a team with a pulse as of late, they’ve come up short (losses vs GB, Arizona, SF, and Tennessee over the last 9 games). QB Stafford has a bad back and sore arm and it has showed in his performance as 5 of his 9 interceptions on the season have come in the last 4 games. The Rams also have Covid issues right now with starting RT and Center out along with starting RB Henderson. Arizona came off bye 2 weeks ago and they are much healthier then the Rams right now. QB Murray is back and he has his full complement of WR’s in the line up. With Murray at QB they have scored 30+ points in 7 of 9 games. Cards are 10-2 on the season (9-3 ATS) with their only losses coming by 3 points vs Green Bay and at home vs Carolina when Murray was out. That was in fact their last home game which was nearly a month ago. Arizona will be ready to make amends for that embarrassing loss. These 2 met in LA this year and the Cardinals were + total yardage, + yards per pass attempt, + yards per rush attempt and won the game 37-20. Arizona is 4-0 both SU & ATS vs division foes this year and they get another win and cover on Monday. |
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12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -2.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This game sets up very nicely for the Browns. They are coming off a bye and they lost @ Baltimore 16-10 the game before their bye week. In that game the Ravens ran 20 more offensive snaps (77 to 57) and still couldn’t pull away for a comfortable win at home. Cleveland was outgained in total yardage which would be expected when you run 20 fewer plays, however on a yards per play basis the Browns outgained the Ravens 4.6 to 3.9. Baltimore comes in a bit demoralized after losing @ Pittsburgh last week and the way they lost makes it really tough to bounce back. The Ravens scored a TD with only a few seconds left and decided to go for 2 points rather than kick the XP and go into OT. The Ravens offense has been really bad over the last month and a half or so. They have been held under 20 points in 5 of their last 6 games and over the last 4 weeks they’ve scored a TD on just 5 of 45 possessions (11%) which is the worst in the league during that stretch. It will be tough for them on offense again facing the 4th rated defense in the NFL on Sunday who just held them to 3.9 yards per play 2 weeks ago. Cleveland is as healthy as they’ve been since early in the season coming off last week’s bye. Both RB’s Chubb and Hunt are back. QB Mayfield was able to rest his ailing shoulder for the first time this season. The Browns are 6-6 on the season yet they’ve outgained their opponents 5.7 yards per play to 5.2 yards per play. Baltimore is 8-4 but they’ve been outgained 5.5 yards per play to 6.1 yards per play. The Ravens are not nearly as good as their record might indicate and we like Cleveland to win by at least a FG at home on Sunday. |
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12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans UNDER 41 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
#119/120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Seattle vs Houston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We have the 2 worst offenses in the NFL in this game with Houston 32nd in total offense and Seattle 31st. The Texans are averaging 13.7 PPG and they’ve been held to single digits in HALF of their games this season (6). Over their last 7 games the Texans are averaging 10 PPG and have been held to 14 or less 5 times. They are last in the NFL averaging 4.4 YPP which is the worst mark in the league since the 2018 season. Seattle’s defense should shut this team down. The Seahawks have been playing quite well on that side of the ball holding 7 straight opponents to 23 points or less. That includes very good offensive teams Green Bay, San Francisco, and Arizona. If they can hold those teams in check, they sure as hell can limit this Houston offense. While the Seahawks have been good defensively, they have not been so on offense. Russell Wilson is not close to 100% and it shows with this team scoring 0, 13, 15, and 30 points since he returned. Last week’s 30 point effort was VERY misleading as they scored on a 74 yard fake punt and a safety. So the offense only scored 21 but averaged just 4.8 YPP. Houston’s defense is the strength of their team ranking 10th in DVOA per Football Outsiders. Both of these teams are averaging 40 total points in their games this year and ALL of those games were vs teams that ranked higher in total offense. The teams have played 24 games combined this season and only 6 have gone Over the Total. There is a decent chance neither of these teams reach 20 points in this game and we like the Under. |
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12-11-21 | Navy +7.5 v. Army | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
#103 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Navy +7.5 over Army, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET - Army is already locked into a winning season, a bowl game, and they will retain the Commander In Chief trophy no matter the outcome of this game. This is Navy’s bowl game. Army has a solid 8-3 record but they’ve been a terrible investment as a favorite going 1-4 ATS in that role this season and 58-84 ATS in that role dating all the way back to 1980. Navy is just 3-8 SU (7-4 ATS) entering this game but they’ve played much better over the last 5 or 6 weeks. During that stretch they beat a bowl bound Tulsa team, lost to a bowl bound East Carolina team by 3 and early upset Cincinnati losing by a TD but outgained the Bearcats by 37 yards. Army was outgained by 4 of their last 5 FBS opponents putting up more yardage than only UMass who finished the season with a 1-9 record. Both teams obviously love to run the ball but both defenses know how to defend this offense. It’s not a novelty to these teams which is why these games are almost always low scoring (total set at 34). A low scoring game gives extra value to the dog especially one getting more than a TD. Seven of the last ten meetings between these two rivals have been decided by a TD or less. Navy brings everything they have in their final game of the season and keeps it close. Take the points. |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 35 h 27 m | Show |
#102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -3 over Pittsburgh, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Love this situation for the Vikings. They are coming off an embarrassing loss @ Detroit giving the Lions their first win of the season. Detroit scored on the final play of the game for the 29-27 win. The Vikes outgained the Lions 6.0 to 5.2 YPP in that loss. It was the 2nd straight setback for Minnesota after losing @ San Francisco a week earlier putting this team in must win mode at home on Thursday. Let’s not forget the 2 games prior to those losses the Vikings beat the Chargers on the road and the Packers at home. Pittsburgh is coming off a gigantic division 20-19 win beat Baltimore by 1 point when the Ravens decided to go for the win and a 2 point conversion in the final seconds but came up inches short. Now going on the road on a short week after a very physical division battle is not ideal. Prior to squeaking by Baltimore the Steelers tied Detroit at home, lost @ LA Chargers (outgained by 3.1 YPP!), and lost 41-10 @ Cincinnati. The Steelers were +6 in their game @ LA Chargers and +4 @ Cincinnati and now +3 @ Minnesota, a team that ranks ahead of both those teams DVOA? Last week’s loss @ Detroit is giving us nice value here with the Vikings. Despite Minnesota’s 5-7 record (Pitt is 6-5-1), the Vikes rank 11th overall DVOA (12 spots ahead of Pitt), are better defensively (DVOA - 17th to 20th), better offensively (DVOA - 8th to 20th) and they’ve played the tougher schedule to date. Minnesota has a + point differential while Pittsburgh, despite being 1 game above .500, has a point differential of -42. The Minnesota defense was missing their top DB last week with Patrick Peterson out in Covid protocol but he returns this week. The Vikings are receiving tons of criticism in the Minneapolis area after their loss last week and now they are in must win mode on Thursday. We think they come out and play very well and pick up a win & cover over the banged up Steelers. |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -2.5 over New England, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Pats come into this one with a 5-0 SU record on the road but they played perhaps the easiest road schedule in the NFL thus far. Their opponents? Houston, NY Jets, Atlanta, Carolina, and the LA Chargers. The only legit competition in that group was the Chargers and New England was outgained 6.4 YPP to 4.7 YPP in that contest but benefited from a pick 6 in that 27-24 win. Their other 4 road opponents have a combined 15-33 record. Going into Buffalo on Monday night will be their most difficult game this season. The Bills are coming off a 31-6 win @ New Orleans on Thanksgiving so they’ve had extra time to get ready for this one. The Bills have had a few stinkers this year losing at home to Indy and getting tripped up @ Jacksonville, but the numbers still show they are the top team in the AFC. They have a YPG differential of +114 and a YPP differential of +1.3, both tops on the NFL. New England’s defense has been on a very good run over the last month but 3 of the 4 offenses they’ve faced during that stretch rank 22nd or lower in offensive DVOA. As good as the New England defense has been, the Buffalo defense is #1 in the NFL allowing just 4.6 YPP compared to 5.1 for the Pats. During their current 6 game winning streak, the Patriots have been a big time beneficiary in the turnover department with a +13 margin in those 6 games alone. They probably can’t count on that tonight facing a Bills team that is 4th in the NFL in TO margin. NE QB Jones has had a great rookie season but after facing a number of lower tier opponents on the road this year, now he takes on the #1 defense in the NFL in one of the toughest venues in the league. We expect him to struggle. All 7 of Buffalo’s wins this year have come by at least 15 points and we like them to cover at home on Monday. |
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12-05-21 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
#457/458 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 47.5 Points – Denver vs Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - People continue to view this KC offense as a juggernaut and it just isn’t anymore. They are averaging fewer PPG, YPG, and YPP this season compared to last. The Chiefs have topped 20 points only twice in their last 7 games. Now they face a division opponent that is locked in defensively. The Broncos have allowed 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games including vs Dallas and LA Chargers, two of the best offenses in the NFL. For the season Denver is giving up just 17.8 PPG which ranks them 3rd in the NFL. They are allowing only 2.2 red zone trips per game which is tops in the NFL On the other side of the ball the Chiefs defense has poor numbers overall. Those season stats are not indicative of how this KC stop unit is playing right now. After allowing 32.6 PPG and allowing opponents to score points on more than 57% of their possessions through the first 5 games, KC’s defense has allowed a miniscule 9.5 PPG and allowed opponents to score points on just 27% of their possession over the last 6 games. They should limit a Denver offense that is averaging just 20.7 PPG on the year. The Broncos are one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL and will want to control the clock here. Denver games are averaging only 38 total points on the season and KC’s games are averaging just 35 total points over the last 6 games once their defense started to play well. Looks like a windy night in KC (15+ MPH) which will have an affect as well. Under is the play here. |
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12-05-21 | Chargers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
#463 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers +3 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Buy low, sell high spot here. The Chargers are coming off a loss @ Denver last week in a game that set up nicely for the Broncos who were coming off a bye. Cincinnati has had 2 straight impressive looking wins beating the Raiders 32-13 and Steelers 41-10. However, let’s not forget that their 2 games prior to those wins, the Bengals lost at home 41-16 vs Cleveland and lost @ NY Jets. Cincy has the better record in this match with a 7-4 mark compared to the Chargers 6-5. We have to take into account the strength of schedules of these 2 teams to put those records in perspective. Cincy had played the 31st rated schedule so far this season including games vs Chicago, Jacksonville, NY Jets, and Detroit – all ranked 25th or lower in NFL team DVOA with the last 3 listed ranking 29th, 30th, and 31st . Despite that, the Bengals lost 2 of those games vs the Bears & Jets and barely squeaked by the Jags by 3 points. The Chargers have played the 2nd most difficult schedule in the NFL to date. Despite the schedule disparity, LA has the better YPG differential (+33 to +5) and the better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.3). LA has been a solid road team with a 3-2 SU record this year and 21-10-3 ATS as a road dog the last 3 seasons. We expect LA QB Herbert to have a big day vs the 25th ranked Cincinnati pass defense. Take the points. |
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12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
#320 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -3 over Wake Forest, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Two great offenses face off here with both Pitt & Wake averaging 43 PPG on the season. When we move to the other side of the ball, Pitt has a big advantage. Pitt ranks 49th nationally in total defense while Wake ranks 101st. Even more importantly, the Panthers rank 38th in YPP allowed (5.1) and the Deacs rank 94th in that key stat (5.9). Pittsburgh’s YPP differential this year is +1.3 which ranks them #1 in the ACC tied with NC State. WF has a YPP differential of just +0.3 which puts them behind Pitt, NC State, Clemson, Louisville, UNC, Miami, FSU, and Syracuse in the ACC alone. Wake has 2 losses on the season getting dominated in the trenches by Clemson (lost by 21 points) and losing at home to UNC. Pittsburgh beat both of those teams by 10 and 7 points respectively outgaining those 2 foes by more than 200 yards combined. Speaking of common opponents, these 2 teams have had 5 this year (Clemson, UNC, Syracuse, Duke and UVA). Pitt was 5-0 SU in those games with an average winning margin of +14 and an average YPG margin of +110. WF was 3-2 in those games with an average winning margin of +7 and an average YPG margin of +34. It was pretty clear to us watching these teams all season + the obvious key stats that Pitt was the better team this season. The Panthers have a significant advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Their defense allows only 2.8 YPC while Wake gives up over 5 YPC. Pitt is also outstanding at putting pressure on the QB (1st nationally in sacks per game and top 10 in sack percentage) which is key to beating WF. In their worst overall performance this year vs Clemson the Deacs allowed 7 sacks and were outgained by 137 yards. We see similarities to this match up with the exception that Pitt has a MUCH better offense than Clemson. We like Pittsburgh to win this game by more than a FG. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 52.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 52.5 Points – Appalachian State vs UL Lafayette, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - In this match up we have the 2 best defenses in the Sun Belt (#1 & #2 in total defense and scoring defense) squaring off. These two met earlier this year and ULL won the game 41-13 which was by far the worst performance by the App State defense this year. They will be motivated for this one. In that game the teams combined for only 665 total yards and ULL had 4 explosive plays that totaled 139 of those yards. ULL also scored 4 TD’s on drives of 39 yards or less after Mountaineer turnovers. There were 73 rushing attempts and just 51 pass attempts in that game. Rushing the ball eats clock as we know and we expect much more of the same in this game. ASU averages 41 carries per game and ULL averages 40 per game. Since that loss App St has played 6 games and allowed just 14 PPG and 242 YPG. If you subtract their season opener vs Texas in which the ULL defense allowed 38 points, the Cajun defense has allowed an average of just 16.7 PPG and nobody has topped 27 points on this team. Both teams are slower paced ranking 70th or lower nationally so we don’t foresee a lot of offensive possessions. With ASU favored by 3 the projected final here is around 28-25. We don’t project either team getting to those numbers and we like the UNDER. |
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12-03-21 | Western Kentucky v. UTSA OVER 72.5 | Top | 41-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
#303/304 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 72.5 Points – Western Kentucky vs UTSA, Friday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met already once this season and it was an absolute shootout. UTSA came out on top 52-46 so almost 100 points scored in that one. It wasn’t a fluke as there wasn’t a single non-offensive TD in that game. All points were earned by the offenses. The 2 teams combined for more than 1,200 yards in the game! As crazy as it sounds, it could have been higher scoring that it was. Believe it or not there were FIVE punts in the game, a missed FG, one shut out on downs in opposing territory and 2 interceptions thrown inside the opponents 25 yards line which would most likely have led to scores. There were 166 offensive snaps in the game (a lot!) and we expect nothing different as these are 2 of the faster paced teams in college FB (WKU in top 10 and UTSA in top 30). The Hilltoppers have scored 40+ points in 7 of their last 8 games including rolling up 52 last Saturday on a Marshall defense that came into the game ranked 23rd nationally allowing just 21 PPG. UTSA’s offense has scored at least 30 points in 8 of their 12 games this season and they are averaging 37 PPG on the year. This game is being played in the Alamo Dome in San Antonio so the playing conditions will be perfect for both offenses. With WKU favored by 3 the projected final score is 38-35. Our numbers have both teams eclipsing those numbers as this one goes OVER the total. |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints +5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +5 over Dallas, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Dallas is currently going through a Covid issue which will affect the team negatively this week. We’re not quite sure how much as of this writing but we know some key pieces to the puzzle are out. HC McCarthy and several assistants will not be able to participate in this game. We know the Dallas starting RT is out and we’re expecting more to come. WR Jones might return but he still is nowhere near 100% as he’s still under the weather. Dallas has had to conduct virtual practices this week so the prep for this game is out of whack as well. That will be a problem for a Cowboy offense that is playing the best defense they’ve faced in quite a while. The Saints rank 5th in the NFL DVOA defense and the last 5 teams Dallas has faced have defenses ranked 17th or lower and 4 of the 5 rank 24th or lower DVOA. Dallas has lost 3 of their last 4 games despite facing those defenses. This team is trending down. We realize the Saints have lost 4 in a row and are reeling as well. New Orleans has outgained 2 of those 4 opponents and 2 of the losses came by 2 points. They are also making a change at QB with a healthy Taysom Hill taking over which should give this team some life. He played very well in his 4 starts last season completing 71.9% of his passes during his four-game starting stint for 834 yards, 4 TDs and 2 interceptions. He also ran the ball 39 times for 209 yards and 4 touchdowns. New Orleans HC Payton has never lost 5 straight games and his record as a dog is a money making 47-25 ATS – including 7-2 ATS as a home dog since 2015. Off a terrible home performance vs the Bills on Thanksgiving Day, we like New Orleans to bounce back and keep this one close if not win outright. |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team +1 | Top | 15-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
#274 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +1 over Seattle, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We really like the way Washington is trending right now. They’ve won 2 straight games and actually outgained their last 4 opponents. Two of those games came vs Green Bay & Tampa Bay, two of the very best teams in the NFL. 3 of those 4 games were on the road. Their most recent home game was 2 weeks ago vs Tampa and Washington won the game by 10 points outgaining the Bucs by 47 yards. It was an ideal spot for Tampa as they were coming off a bye and had lost @ New Orleans heading into their week off. Needless to say a very impressive win for Washington. Their defense was top notch last year but struggled the first part of the season. They have really tightened up on that side of the ball limiting their last 4 opponents to an average of just 286 YPG. That includes holding Tampa to 273 yards and Green Bay to 304 yards. That’s bad news for a Seattle offense that is struggling to say the least right now. The Seahawks have scored a grand total of 13 points the last 2 weeks combined. Russell Wilson is obviously not 100% and can’t perform at the level he is used to. Since his return Wilson has led Seattle on 20 offensive possessions and they’ve scored 1 TD. Last week they lost 23-13 at home vs Arizona with Colt McCoy at QB for the Cards. The Hawks have lost 5 of their last 6 games with their only win coming vs Jacksonville. They’ve also been outgained in 9 straight games. On the season the Seahawks are getting outgained by 103 YPG (worst differential in the NFL) and they rank 30th in total offense and 32nd in total defense. We like Washington to win this game at home. |
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11-28-21 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 48.5 | Top | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
#267/268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – Minnesota vs San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Both these offenses are humming right now and our projections have this one landing in the 50’s. The Vikings have scored at least 27 points in 4 of their last 5 games including putting up 31 last week vs a Green Bay defense that had allowed more than 21 points in any of their previous 5 games. San Francisco has scored 30 or more in 3 of their last 4 games including 31 two weeks ago vs a very good Rams defense and 30 last week vs a Jacksonville defense that had allowed 6 points to Buffalo 2 weeks prior and 16 offensive points to Indy in their previous game. Both teams rank inside the top 10 in offensive DVOA per football outsiders. Minnesota has gone over the total in 4 of their 5 road games this year with an average of 58 points scored in those games. The Viking defense has allowed at least 27 points in 4 of those 5 road games. San Fran at home has gone over in 3 of their 5 games with an average point total of 49 per game. The Niners defense has solid overall numbers this season but vs some of the better offenses they’ve faced they have given up points (Green Bay 30, Indy 30, and Arizona 31). This one has the makings of a back and forth game with each team needing to keep up on the scoreboard. Take the OVER |
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11-28-21 | Eagles -3.5 v. Giants | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 over NY Giants, 1 PM ET - The Giants just fired their offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and have a short week to prepare for the surging Eagles who have won 2 straight and 3 of their last four. The key in this game will be the rushing attack of the Eagles. Going into last week’s game the Saints had the #1 ranked rushing defense in the NFL allowing 73RYPG but the Eagles pounded them on the ground for 242-rushing yards on 50 carries. Philadelphia has morphed into a solid running team with over 176 rushing yards in four straight games, over 216 in three of those. If the Eagles were able to rush for over the #1 ranked Saints defense last week, what will they do against a Giants rush defense that is 23rd in the league allowing 120RYPG and 4.4-yards per carry. These two teams are even in terms of defensive DVOA but the Eagles rate much better offensively with the 7th best DVOA offense compared to the Giants 27th ranked unit. Going back to 2016 the Eagles have beaten the Giants 9 of ten times and eight of those wins came by 3 or more points. Back Philadelphia as a short road favorite. |
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11-27-21 | UTSA v. North Texas +10.5 | Top | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
#190 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Texas +10.5 over Texas San Antonio, 2pm ET - This is going to be a tough spot for UTSA as they are off a HUGE win over UAB, the perennial power in the Conference last week, and have a date in the Conference Championship next week. The Roadrunners dramatic win last week came with a TD pass with just .03 seconds on the clock. UTSA was outgained by 100-yards by UAB in that game and gave up over 220-rushing yards. Next week UTSA will play the winner of the Marshall/Western Kentucky game for the CUSA title which makes this game much less important. North Texas can qualify for a Bowl game with a win here and have a key factor on their side in this matchup. We mentioned UTSA allowed over 220-rushing yards to UAB, well North Texas has the 4th best rush offense in the nation at 237.5RYPG. The Eagles are playing well right now having won 4 straight games and covering 7 of their last eight. The undefeated Roadrunners are a road favorite for just the 3rd time since 2018, are overvalued, and laying double digits on the road. Easy buy with the home team North Texas. |
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11-27-21 | Army v. Liberty UNDER 53.5 | Top | 31-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
#147/148 ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 53.5 Points – Army vs Liberty, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We won’t see many offensive opportunities in this game as Army is slowest paced team in the nation and Liberty ranks 92nd in pace. On top of that we’ll see A LOT of running the ball which eats clock and shortens the game. Army is 2nd nationally averaging 60 rushing attempts per game and Liberty is averaging 41 per game (30th). We have 2 very good defenses in this game as well with both ranking in the top 15 in total defense. Liberty entered last week’s game vs UL Lafayette allowing just 18 PPG and it looks like they had a total meltdown on that side of the ball with the Cajuns scoring 42 points. That wasn’t the case as ULL had only 296 total yards and Liberty gave them a number of short fields with a -6 turnover margin in that game. Even though they played decent on defense, giving up their highest point total of the season will motivate this Liberty defense heading into this week. Let’s remember the week prior to their ULL game this Liberty defense allowed just 27 points to a potent Ole Miss offense. Army has had 4 games that have scored more than this total (53) vs WKY (7th in pace, 9th in offense, 110th defense), UConn (14th pace, 111th defense), WF (4th pace, 9th offense, 110th defense) and Bucknell (63-10 final). So all of Army’s higher scoring games were vs fast paced teams with poor defenses. That won’t be the case this week. For comparison, Army’s total vs WF was set at 54. Their total vs Western KY was set at 52. As we stated above those are fast paced teams with very good offense and defenses ranked below 100. Based on that, this total should be set in the 40’s. Our number has it at 47 so we think there is definite value in the Under. |
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11-26-21 | TCU v. Iowa State -14.5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
#140 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -14.5 over TCU, Friday 4:30 PM ET - Vegas is begging us to bet on TCU here and we won’t bite. The Horned Frogs are attracting a lot of public action, yet the line is not fluctuating down. TCU has had a disappointing season which cost longtime head coach Gary Patterson his job and has Jerry Kill as the interim coach. The Horned Frogs are coming off a 3-point win over 2-9 Kansas who has an average +/- on the season of minus -22.8PPG. TCU has been blown out on the road this season by 46 at Oklahoma State, by 19 at Kansas State and 21 at Oklahoma who are all on par with this Iowa State team. The Cyclones are a disappointing 6-5 this season, but they are much better than their record indicates. Even with 5 losses, ISU has a +10.3 average MOV which is incredible. Iowa State has a bad taste in their mouths after two straight 1-score losses on the road and will look for atonement at home. ISU is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +/- of +14.8PPG. Iowa State has a top 50-offense in several key statistical categories and should have success moving the ball against a TCU defense that ranks 113th in yards allowed per game at 454. On the other side of the football the Horned Frogs will have a tough time moving it against the top 10 defense of the Cyclones. This one has all the makings of a blowout. |
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11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints UNDER 45.5 | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 45.5 Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - Let’s not overreact to the Bills game last week when their defense looked atrocious against the Colts for a couple reasons. First off, the Colts offense is playing quite well right now behind a great O-line and RB Jonathan Taylor. Secondly, the Bills were #1 in the NFL in defensive DVOA and still rank 1st in yards per game allowed 2nd in passing D, 9th in rushing D and 2nd in points allowed per game at 17.6. On average it takes opponents 16.3 yards gained for 1-point which is 9th best in the NFL. Buffalo is also 1st in yards per play allowed this season at 4.7. After a horrible showing last week, we are betting the Bills defense shows up here. The Bills aren’t the only team in this game with a fantastic defense. The Saints rank 5th in defensive DVOA, give up 5.4YPPL (11th), 15.7 yards per point (13th) and rank 10th in points allowed per game at 21.8. The Saints offense is banged up, down to their 3rd string QB and could be without Kamara again here. Last week the Saints had less than 100-total yards of offense going into the 4th quarter against the Eagles and 7-points. The 22-points and yards gained in the 4th quarter came after that game was out of reach. The Bills offense has looked pedestrian at best in two of their last three games with 6 and 15-points against the Jaguars and Colts. They did put up 45-points versus the Jets, but New York has the worst defense in the NFL. The bet here is Under. |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
#112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -2 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ve kept a close eye on Ole Miss for a number of weeks now. We used their game vs Vandy Under last week and cashed easily. The Rebels are running out of gas. They are now playing their 9th consecutive week and now on a short week on the road. This team is banged up at a number of positions including QB where Matt Corral has not been able to practice which has limited Lane Kiffin’s game planning to his own admission. They struggled a bit last week beating Vandy by 14 (Ole Miss was favored by 35) and that was a Commodore team that had lost their first 6 SEC games by an average of 26 points including a 45-6 loss to Mississippi State. Because this team is fatigued, their scoring has dropped drastically especially in the 2nd half where they have scored a grand total of 44 points over their last 6 games (7.3 PPG in 2nd half during that run). Speaking of the Bulldogs, they are peaking right now which can’t be said about the Rebels. They have won 6 of their last 7 games with their only setback during that run coming @ Alabama. Throw out that game and MSU has outgained their last 6 opponents by an average of 203 YPG. While Ole Miss QB Corral gets most of the press, how about the run by MSU QB Rogers? He is completing 80% of his passes with 20 TD’s over the Bulldogs last 5 games. They have outgained every SEC opponent they’ve faced with the exception of Bama. MSU’s offense is rolling right now as we discussed and their defense gives up a full 100 yards less per game than Mississippi. This is a rivalry revenger as MSU lost @ Ole Miss last season 31-24. We like MSU to win this one and we’ll lay the small number. |
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11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +11.5 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - Giants are coming off a bye and playing much better as of late. They’ve won 2 of their last 3 games with their only loss coming by 3 points @ KC. They outgained the Chiefs 5.4 YPP to 4.8 YPP in that game and that tight loss on the road is looking more impressive after KC demolished Las Vegas and handled Dallas in the 2 weeks after. They have been a big time money maker as a road underdog going 19-4 ATS their last 23. This year they are 3-1 ATS when getting points on the road. NYG QB Jones has been better on the road in his career than he’s been at home. This year in his 4 road games he has a higher completion percentage, higher yards per pass attempt, and a higher QBR away from home. WR’s Golladay and Toney are finally healthy and RB Barkley may play here. TB is coming off back to back losses getting topped New Orleans by 9 and Washington by 10. Brady put up his 2 lowest QBR ratings in those 2 games which included 4 interceptions. Those were vs pass defenses that rank 13th and 29th DVOA. The Giants defensive strength is vs the pass ranking 11th in the NFL DVOA so they match up very well with a TB offense that struggles to run (27th in rush offense). These 2 faced off last year and it was tight to the end with Tampa winning by just 2 points despite getting outgained by the Giants. NYG may not win this one but they’ll put up a fight and say within 11 points. |
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11-21-21 | Cowboys +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 9-19 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not going to overreact to one big offensive performance from KC. They walloped Las Vegas last week but prior to that this team was averaging only 17 PPG their previous 5 games. This team still is a shell of last year’s Super Bowl team. The Chiefs YPP differential is -0.3 and their defense ranks 31st in YPP allowed at 6.1. That’s a bad match up vs a Dallas offense that is 1st in the NFL averaging 6.3 YPP and 1st as well in scoring at 31.6 PPG. KC is 0-9 ATS their last 9 home games (regular season) including 0-5 ATS this year losing by an average of 8 PPG to the spread. Dallas has been the better team all season long. They are the only team in the NFL ranked in the top 5 in both offense and defense DVOA. Their defense ranks 3rd DVOA vs the pass which matches them up very nicely with the Chiefs in this game. The Cowboys are also 3rd in the NFL in 3rd down defense with opponents converting only 32% of the time. That should keep Mahomes on the sidelines and the Dallas offense on the field in this one. KC continues to be overvalued based on their previous seasons. The better team is getting points here and we’re not passing that up. Take Dallas. |
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11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii +2.5 | Top | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 37 h 27 m | Show |
#426 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Hawaii +2.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 11PM ET - We have you covered for the late-night tilt on the Big Island in Hawaii when the Rams visit the Rainbow Warriors. This is a tough scheduling situation for Colorado State as they travel to Hawaii after suffering their fourth straight loss last week to Air Force. After prepping for the Triple Option attack, they now must adjust to playing the more traditional attack of Hawaii. CSU cannot make a Bowl game at this point, and they face one of the best teams in the Mountain West next week in Nevada. Hawaii on the other hand still has a shot at notching 6 wins on the season with a win here and the at Wyoming to become Bowl eligible. The Warriors are a much different team at home than they are on the road. Hawaii has been competitive at home against some of the league’s best teams losing by 7-points to San Diego State, 4 to San Jose State and beating Fresno State. Hawaii has some horrible defensive numbers overall, but at home they allow 5.2-Yards Per Play and 25.4PPG which are better than the national average. The Rams offense has struggled this season, especially on the road where they average just 4.9YPPL and 3.6-Yards Per Rush. In comparison, Hawaii averages 5.8YPPL at home and 5.0YPR. Colorado State should not be favored here and with nothing left to play for don’t be surprised if they view this trip to the islands as a vacation of sorts. Grab the points. |
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11-20-21 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss UNDER 65 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
#391/392 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 65 Points – Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - The Rebels have really upped their defensive performance as of late holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 19 points or less. Those 3 opponents were Texas A&M, Liberty, and LSU whose offenses are all far superior to Vandy. The Commodores rank 123rd in total offense and 128th in scoring offense averaging only 15 PPG. Take out their games vs the 2 defenses they’ve faced ranked lower than 100th (Mizzou & UConn) and Vanderbilt is averaging only 11.5 PPG. They will struggle offensively vs this Ole Miss defense that is playing much better than their season long stats indicate. Offensively the Rebels have slowed WAY down compared to early in the season. They have not topped 31 points since October 9th which has resulted in 5 straight Unders. Mississippi has a huge game on deck Thursday (Thanksgiving) with rival Mississippi State so they don’t want to do anything to jeopardize their performance in that game. Nothing special on offense from them here and if they get a comfortable lead as the point spread suggests they will we expect them to sit key players, including banged up QB Corral, in the 2nd half at some point. Of Vandy’s last 36 road games, 26 have gone Under the total and we expect another one here. |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7.5 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -135 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON Atlanta +7.5 over New England, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - The Patriots are quickly becoming a public team after winning & covering 4 straight. Around 75% of the tickets this week have come in on New England and the sportsbooks we track and that has pushed the line from a -4 opener to a full TD. Too much in our opinion and we’ll take the value on Atlanta. The Pats have been favored by -7 or more just twice this season vs the Jets & Texans. In their lone road game as a heavy chalk, New England had to come from down 22-9 @ Houston to squeak by with a 25-22 win. They have been a road favorite of a TD or more just twice since the start of last season struggling to beat a bad Houston team this year and doing the same vs the NY Jets last year (won by 3). Atlanta is coming in off an embarrassing performance @ Dallas losing 43-3. We love backing teams off blowout losses, especially as home underdogs. If they are facing a team off a blowout win (New England won by 38 last week) that’s even better. A buy low – sell high spot for sure. Prior to their loss @ Dallas, the Falcons had won 4 of 6 games with their losses during that stretch coming by 4 & 6 points. Since their 2 blowout losses to open the season vs Philly and @ Tampa Bay, the Falcons have adapted nicely to new head coach Arthur Smith’s systems on both sides of the ball. Since those opening 2 losses, the Falcons are 4-3 SU with 6 of those 7 games being decided by a TD or less (Dallas last week being the only outlier). Last week Atlanta was +8 @ Dallas and now they are +7 at home vs the Patriots? We’ll take the value with the home team on Thursday night. |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan OVER 66 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 66 Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan, 8:30PM ET - If you enjoy MACaction and a lot of scoring you will love this contest tonight. Both teams have plenty to play for with identical 6-4 SU records so energy will be high for this “Michigan” rivalry. Let’s start with the Eastern defense which has been atrocious in the past few weeks. Last week, EMU allowed 8.1-yards per play to Ohio U who averages 6.1YPPL on the season and gave up 34-points to a Bobcats averaging 24PPG on the year. The Eagles allowed 8.6YPPL, 672 total yards to Toledo the week before and 49 points. While we are talking about defenses, Western Michigan has given up 31 or more points in 5 straight games, in 3 of those they allowed 40 plus. WMU has racked up some gaudy offensive numbers in recent weeks with 533, 445, 398 and 648 total yards of offense in their last four games. The Broncos will have success on the ground against an EMU defense that gives up 195-rushing yards per game and ranks 107th in that department. Overall the Eagles give up over 430YPG which is 103rd in the nation. WMU is 29th in yards per game at 443.8 with 195 of those yards coming via the 34th ranked rushing attack. Ohio is the highest scoring team in the MAC and 22nd highest scoring team in the nation at 33.9PPG. Last season when these two teams met they combined for over 1,000 total yards of offense and 95-total points. The bet here is OVER. |
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11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -3.5 over San Francisco, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We like the better team here coming off a very deceiving loss last week. The Rams played host to the Titans, who have now won 5 straight games, and dominated the stat sheet. They lost the game but LA was +1.2 YPP, +1.8 YPC, and +0.6 yards per pass attempt. Two huge turnovers did them in with QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to TD. The Rams seem to have very little home field advantage (3-2 record) so on the road, where they are 4-0 this season, we can pick up some nice value. San Fran, on the other hand, hasn’t won a home game yet this season (0-4) losing those games by 2, 7, 12, and 14 points. Last week’s loss was very telling. The Niners were in must win mode at home vs Arizona, who was playing without their QB Murray or their top WR Hopkins. Cardinal back up QB McCoy shredded the SF defense completing 85% of his pass attempts in that game. Arizona outgained the Niners by 100 yards en route to a 31-17 win. That same Cardinal team with McCoy at QB was dominated at home yesterday by Carolina losing 34-10 and they were held to just 3.2 YPP. Rams HC McVay is fantastic off a SU loss with a 16-6 spread mark in that situation. SF, on the other hand, has been a big time money burner at home with a 13-22-1 ATS mark since Shanahan took over as head coach. The 49ers have 3 wins this season vs Detroit, Chicago, and Philly who have a combined record of 7-20. When they’ve had to step up in class SF’s hasn’t been able to get it done. On top of that, this is a double revenger for the Rams who were favored in both games last year vs San Francisco and lost. We like LA tonight. |
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11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
#249 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Ask yourself this question. Why is Tennessee only favored by 2.5 to 3 points in this game? This is a Titans team that just won 4 straight games as an underdog vs the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams. And now they face the Saints a team that lost at home to Atlanta last week and are playing their back up QB? Fishy we say. The fact is the Saints match up really well vs this Tennessee team. New Orleans is #1 DVOA defense vs the run which is a huge part of the Titan’s offense, with our without Derrick Henry. Last week, their first game without Henry, the Titans rushed for only 69 yards on 2.7 YPC vs the Rams. Despite their win Tennessee was a bit fortunate in that game with Rams QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another interception that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to a TD. Tennessee was actually outgained by 1.2 YPP in that win. New Orleans QB Siemian has actually played quite well in this game and a half of work this year. He’s thrown for over 400 yards with 3 TD’s and no picks. While they did lose to Atlanta by 2 points this year, let’s not forget this Saints team beat Tampa Bay 36-27 a week early with Siemian getting most of the snaps. New Orleans is 2-0 ATS this year when coming off a SU loss and head coach Payton is 32-20 ATS in that role. The 7-2 Titans are a bit overvalued right now as their YPP differential is -0.3 and they are getting outgained in total yardage on the season. They won their first game without Henry due to LA turnovers. Now they face a motivated New Orleans team with a top notch defense off a loss. Sean Payton and the Saints are 8-1 ATS their last 9 as a road underdog winning 7 of those games outright. Take the points. |
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11-13-21 | South Carolina v. Missouri OVER 54.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
#187/188 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54.5 Points – South Carolina vs Missouri, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Mizzou has a very good offense and terrible defense. They have allowed at least 35 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The only team that did not reach 35 was Vanderbilt and Mizzou allowed a bad Commodore offense to 28 in that game. FCS team Southeast Missouri State put up 28 points on this defense which ranks 122nd and total defense and 116th in YPP allowed. Offensively, this team can score points. Their only 2 poor offensive performances this year were vs Georgia & Texas A&M who rank 2nd and 7th nationally in YPP allowed. If we subtract those 2 games, Mizzou is averaging 38 PPG on the season. Starting QB Bazelak missed last weekend’s game @ UGA but has been practicing this week so we expect him to go. The South Carolina offensive numbers for the season aren’t great. However, the Gamecocks seem to be peaking late in the year on that side of the ball right now putting up 400+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games including last Saturday beating Florida 40-17. On top of that, Missouri will be the worst defense they’ve faced this season. South Carolina has a middle of the pack type defense this year ranking 53rd nationally. However, in SEC play they have allowed 30 PPG with 3 teams getting to at least 40 points. The weather looks perfect for scoring in Columbia, MO on Saturday with light winds and no precipitation in the forecast. We like the OVER in this one. |
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11-13-21 | Minnesota +4.5 v. Iowa | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +4.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Iowa started the season on fire and moved all the way up to #2 in the polls which we knew at the time was nowhere near an accurate perception of this team. They won their first 6 games of the season but that slate was quite easy. They played only 2 teams through the first 6 that currently have a winning record. Those games were tight wins vs Iowa State, who outgained Iowa by 166 yards, and Penn State, who had their QB Clifford leave with an injury with PSU up by 14 points. In those first 6 games, the Hawkeyes were plus a ridiculous 15 turnovers which masked their offensive problems and simply wasn’t sustainable. In their most recent 3 games the Hawkeyes have come back to the level we thought they would be playing at losing by 17 vs Purdue, by 20 vs Wisconsin, and beating a bad NW team by just 5 points. Iowa was outgained in all 3 of those games by a combined 300 yards. That includes last week’s tight win @ NW vs a Wildcat team that had been outgained by a combined 720 yards in their 5 Big 10 games prior to facing Iowa. The Hawkeye offense ranks 121st in total offense and 124th in YPP offense this season. They have scored just 31 total points in their last 3 games and now face a very good Minnesota defense that ranks 7th nationally in total defense and allows just 4.9 YPP. The Gopher defense has allowed more than 16 points just ONCE in their last 7 games. On top of that, Iowa will be most likely be starting Alex Padilla at QB as Petras is injured. Padilla has never started a game in college and while he played decent in relief last week, they still only scored 17 points vs a NW defense that ranks 92nd nationally. Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing home loss vs Illinois. The Gophs had their chances in that 14-6 loss and outgained the Illini. In that loss, Minnesota was shut out on downs twice inside the Illinois 25 yard line, threw a pick in Illinois territory and missed a FG. Prior to last week Minnesota won 4 straight games and they have outgained 6 of their last 7 opponents. The Gophers faced NW on the road a week prior to Iowa doing the same and won the game 41-14 outgaining the Wildcats by 200 yards – the same team the Hawkeyes struggled with last week. These defenses are both very good but we feel Minnesota has a big edge at QB with veteran Morgan vs a first time starter. They also have a large edge on the ground rushing for an average of 208 YPG compared to Iowa’s 114 YPG on the ground. This is expected to a be a low scoring grinder (total set at 37) and getting points, especially +5.5, will be key. We feel Minnesota has a great shot to win this game and if not we don’t see Iowa with their terrible offense winning by more than a FG. Take the points. |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming +14 over Boise State, Friday at 9 PM ET - This line is an overreaction to Boise’s big win last Saturday @ Fresno. Our power ratings have this line around 10 so we’re getting value with Wyoming. In Boise’s 2 other conference home games they were favored by 3 vs Air Force (and lost) and favored by 4 over Nevada (and lost). They are taking on a Wyoming team that is coming in with confidence after playing their best game of the season last week beating Colorado St on the road 31-17 outgaining the Rams by 120 yards. Wyoming’s offense has struggled this year but they made the switch at QB to Levi Williams which gives them more of a running threat and he responded with 116 yards on the ground last week and their highest point total since mid September. And that was vs a CSU defense that ranks 10th nationally. The Cowboys are also an attractive big underdog because their defense is outstanding. The rank 18th nationally allowing just 325 YPG and they have allowed more than 27 points only once all season. Boise’s home field advantage isn’t what it used to be having lost 3 games here already this season and Wyoming has played them as tough as anyone. 4 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less and we expect a closer than expected game here. Take the points. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
#116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -6.5 over North Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Love this spot for Pitt. UNC is off a back and forth energy draining 58-55 home win over Wake Forest last Saturday. The Heels trailed for much of the game, down by 18 points late in the 3rd quarter, but made a furious rally in the 4th scoring 24 points in a 10 minute span. That was facing a Wake defense that ranks 105th in total defense and the game was at home. They’ll have a much tougher time with this Pitt defense ranked 37th nationally. The North Carolina defense was shredded last week for over 600 yards and they were on the field for a whopping 90 plays so fatigue will be a factor here. The problem is, they face at Pittsburgh offense that is better than the Wake offense they faced last week. The Panthers rank #1 nationally is scoring averaging 45 PPG and #2 in total offense averaging 543 YPG. If the Heels couldn’t slow down the Deacs last week we don’t see them fairing very well in this contest. UNC has lost all 3 of their road games this season by 7 @ Va Tech, by 23 @ Georgia Tech, and by 10 @ Notre Dame. Pitt is significantly better than the first 2 listed and we have them power rated about 2 points better than ND on a neutral field. These teams have played a similar strength of schedule yet Pitt numbers are much better. The Panthers are +1.8 YPP, +1.1 YPC, +2.4 yards per pass attempt, and +198 YPG. UNC’s numbers are +0.9 YPP, +0.6 YPC, +1.5 yards per pass attempt, and +68 YPG. This Pitt team isn’t talked about much and they are flying under the radar. They continue to be undervalued covering 5 of their last 6 games by 81 points (average cover by 13.5 points). On the other side, North Carolina was an overhyped team coming into the season and they have not lived up to expectations. They are just 2-4 ATS their last 6 with their only covers coming vs a terrible Duke team and by a half point last week at home vs Wake. Pitt gets this one by double digits. |
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11-10-21 | Toledo v. Bowling Green UNDER 50 | Top | 49-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50 Points – Toledo vs Bowling Green, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - Last week both of these teams went WAY over the total in their games which sets this week up nicely for the Under. Bowling Green beat Buffalo 56-44 going over the posted total by 48.5 points! Toledo came up short vs Eastern Michigan losing 52-49 which went over the posted total by 46.5 points! Both games were way outside the norm for these teams and they oddsmakers are simply very rarely that far off. Even with those results, this week’s total opened at 51.5 points and was immediately hammered by pro money pushing it down to 50. The Rockets last 4 totals were set at 54, 54, 53.5, and 51.5 so very similar to tonight’s number vs BG. However, those 4 games were vs offenses that rank 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th in the MAC. Bowling Green’s offense ranks dead last in the conference. Throw out their worst game of the season last year vs EMU, and this Toledo defense allowed 15 points vs WMU who averages 29 PPG, 23 points vs CMU who averages 30 PPG, and 20 points vs NIU who averages 32 PPG. Even after their terrible effort last week, the Rockets still rank 1st in the MAC in points allowed and 2nd in yardage allowed. BG will struggle on offense. The Falcons defense is the strength of their team as well. They rank 4th in the MAC in total defense and they are #1 in the league in pass defense. Toledo’s huge scoring effort last week was an outlier as they averaged just 24.7 PPG in MAC play leading into last week. Prior to last week Toledo had played in 6 straight games that went Under the total. BG is 5-4 to the Under this year. Both are slow paced teams (82nd and 88th nationally) so possessions might be limited. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers UNDER 40 | Top | 27-29 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 40 Points – Chicago @ Pittsburgh, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This should be a low scoring, grinder type game. The strength of both teams are their defenses. The Chicago defense is coming off 2 subpar performances but those games were vs TB (2nd DVOA offense) and San Fran (7th DVOA offense). We expect them to bounce back tonight vs Pittsburgh offense that is 26th in scoring averaging just 18.9 PPG. The Steeler offense has topped 24 points only one time the entire year. Chicago’s offense is averaging just 14.8 PPG since Fields took over at QB (15.4 PPG for the entire season). They have topped 20 points just twice this year, once vs Detroit (24 points) who ranks 31st in the NFL in points allowed and vs SF (22 points) who ranks 25th in points allowed. The SF game was last week and that Niner defense is definitely trending downward after giving up 30+ to Arizona yesterday with their back up QB. Chicago ranks dead last in the NFL averaging 4.4 YPP and Pittsburgh is 25th in that category at 5.2 YPP. Facing an aggressive Steeler defense that ranks 10th in the NFL DVOA won’t be a recipe for success for the Bears struggling offense. These 2 have combined to play 15 games this season with only 3 going over the total. Chicago games are averaging 39 total points and Pittsburgh games are averaging 39 points so while this total seems low, it’s really not. The projected score based on the point spread and this total is right around Pittsburgh 23.5, Chicago 16.5. Again that seems low but that means both teams would have to eclipse their season average in points scored (Pitt by 4.5 points and Chicago by 1 point). We just don’t see that happening here. Take the Under tonight. |
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11-07-21 | Chargers v. Eagles OVER 49.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 21 m | Show |
#467/468 ASA PLAY ON Over 49.5 Points – LA Chargers vs Philadelphia, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Two of the fastest paced teams in the NFL square off here with the Chargers ranking 2nd averaging 1 play every 25.8 seconds and Philly ranking 5th running 1 play every 26.5 seconds. Needless to say we’ll see a lot of offensive snaps in this game which gives us more opportunities to score points. Both of these offense rank in the top 12 in YPP gained and each offense matches up very well with the opposing defense. LA likes to throw the ball with QB Herbert and the Philly defense ranks dead last allowing opposing QB’s to complete almost 75% of their pass attempts. Philadelphia is a solid running team (4th in rushing YPC) and the Charger defense sits dead last in the NFL allowing 5.1 YPC. Both teams are very solid on 3rd down (11th and 13th in 3rd down conversion rate) which keeps drives alive. On the other side of the ball, neither defense is good at getting teams off the field on 3rd down with the Chargers ranking 28th & Eagles 26th in defensive 3rd down conversion rate. The Eagle defense has had 2 solid performances since mid September and their opponents in those games were Detroit who ranks 31st in DVOA offense and Carolina who ranks 29th. In their other 4 games since September 19th this defense has allowed 41, 42, 28, and 33 points. The Chargers defense played well early in the season however over their last 3 games they’ve allowed 42, 34, and 27 points. The weather looks good in Philly on Sunday with highs in the 50’s and light winds. This final score projects in the 25-24 range and we like both offenses to top those numbers. Over is the play. |
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11-07-21 | Vikings +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 45 h 48 m | Show |
#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +6.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Vikings have a record of 3-4 but they are better than their record. Their 4 losses have come by a combined 15 points with their biggest loss coming by 7 points. They were ahead or tied in the 4th quarter in 3 of those losses. Minnesota currently has a + point differential along with a positive YPP & YPG differential. Baltimore is coming off a bye and a blowout loss @ home vs Cincinnati. While many may think this is a great spot to jump on them, we think the Ravens are overvalued. 3 of their 5 wins have come by 1 point vs KC (not as impressive as it once seemed), winless Detroit by 2 points, Indy in OT in a game they trailed by 16 in the 4th quarter. They also beat a bad Denver team and their lone impressive win was vs the LA Chargers. The Raven defense ranks 30th in the NFL in YPP allowed and they are giving up 65 more total yards than they were last season. Dating back to the 2016 season, Minnesota is 21-10-1 ATS when coming off a SU loss – they loss at home vs Dallas last weekend. We project this one to go to the wire. Getting nearly a TD with Minnesota is a solid value. |
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11-06-21 | Navy +21 v. Notre Dame | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
#379 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Navy +21 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is the epitome of a potential rush doubling underdog with a Navy team that is 15th in the country in average rushing yards per game at 224RYPG, while Notre Dame averages just 130RYPG (94th). This is not the best scheduling situation for the Irish as they come off two big games against USC and North Carolina with Virginia on deck. It will be easy to look past this Navy team that has just 2 straight up wins on the season. But a closer look shows us the Midshipmen are on a 5-1 spread run and still undervalued by the oddsmakers here. Navy had an impressive showing two games ago when they took Cincinnati to the wire before losing by a TD as a 28.5-point underdog. That same Cincinnati team beat this Notre Dame team a few weeks ago in South Bend. This is the largest spread of the season for Notre Dame, and we don’t feel they can distance themselves here against a pesky Navy team that has been beaten by more than 21-points just once this season and that was the first game of the season. The Irish have one win over 21 points this year and that was a fluke as Wisconsin gifted them 3 INT’s, two of which were pick 6’s late in the game. |
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11-06-21 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State OVER 68 | Top | 48-14 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
#371/372 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 68 Points - App State vs Arkansas State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - We will start with pace of play, or the number of plays run per minute in our analysis here. Arkansas State is the 11th fastest paced team in college football at 2.63 plays per minute. Appalachian State is 58th at 2.32PPM. App State plays slightly slower, but they make up for it with the 46th best Yards Per Point average at 13.6 while ranking 29th in Yards Per Play at 6.3. The Mountaineers are top 20 in total yards per game, top 38 in both passing and rushing YPG and average 34.8PPG which is 27th in the nation. Appalachian State has put up over 500YPG in 5 of their last six games. Last weekend, App State put up 521 total yards and 59 points against a UL Monroe team that is better than this Arkansas State defense. The Wolves stop unit (we use that term loosely) is 130th in total yards allowed per game, 122nd in passing yards allowed, 129th in rushing D and 128th in points allowed at 42.4PPG. Arky State has given up more than 50 points 4 times this season. The Red Wolves can play offense though averaging over 408YPG, rank 10th in passing yards per game and score 27.5PPG on the season. App State is down defensively compared to past editions and rank slightly above average in most key categories. |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – NY Jets @ Indianapolis, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This under sets up nicely. The Jets offense has been poor all season averaging 16 PPG. Prior to last week’s offensive outburst vs Cincinnati (34 points – highest of the year) the Jets were averaging 13.3 PPG and had topped 20 points only once all season. Now they face the 5th rated defense DVOA and we expect a big drop off in this game. Last week NY QB White threw for over 400 yards and 3 TD’s. We expect a huge regression now that the Colts have 1.5 games of film on him. There is a reason White was drafted in 2018 and his first start in the NFL was last week. He’s only played in 2 games in his career. The Colts defense has played a number of higher ranked offenses this season (Rams, Titans, Ravens) and given up some points. However, they lower third of the NFL offenses they’ve faced this year (Texans & Dolphins) they’ve allowed an average of just 10 PPG. NYJ offense ranks 28th DVOA so they are in the same tier as those 2 teams. On offense we expect Indy to run the ball tonight. The Jets defense ranks 23rd DVOA at stopping the run and Jonathan Taylor is one of the best in the biz. After leading for much of the game last week and relying to heavily on QB Wentz, who threw 2 terrible interceptions late in the game and in OT, the game plan will be run heavy. We also look for Indy’s offense – one of the slower paced teams in the league (25th) – to control the clock and shorten this game. This total is tied for the Jets highest number of the season. Their game vs Atlanta whose defense (30th DVOA defense) is nowhere near as good as Indy’s was 46 as well. That game finished 27-20 so 1 point Over when the NYJ kicked a FG with 17 seconds remaining in the game. This total is an overreaction to what the NYJ offense did last week with a QB nobody had seen play. Under is the play here. |
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11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs OVER 52 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
#277/278 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 52 Points – NY Giants vs Kansas City, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - KC is coming off their worst offensive performance in years putting up only 3 points @ Tennessee last Sunday. They had chances in the 2nd half pushing inside the Tennessee 30-yard line in every possession after halftime and came away with just 3 points. To put that in perspective, the Chiefs have played 63 games (regular season & playoffs) since the start of the 2018 season. They had been held to 10 points or less just ONE other time (before Sunday) during that stretch while scoring at least 35 points 19 times. Because of last week's performance, we're looking at KC's lowest total of the year on Monday. You think KC’s offense will be out to prove a point on Monday primetime TV after scoring 3 last Sunday? We do. The Chiefs should put up plenty of points vs a NYG defense that has allowed at least 27 points in 4 of their 7 games this year. The only teams that did not reach 27 vs this defense were Carolina, New Orleans, and Atlanta all ranked 24th or lower in YPP offense and 20th or lower in offensive DVOA. On the defensive side of the ball KC continues to be one of the worst in the NFL. They are 27th allowing 29 PPG, 30th in 3rd down conversion % allowed, and dead last allowing 6.6 YPP. The Giants have played a number of upper tier defenses over the last month including New Orleans, Carolina, and the LA Rams. They’ll take a big step down here. The Giants also expect 2 of their top offensive weapons back with WR’s Toney and Shephard getting the green light. The weather will be near perfect almost no wind. This should be a shootout. |
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10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
#267/268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points – Jacksonville vs Seattle, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Everyone watched the offensive debacle between New Orleans and Seattle on Monday night (Saints 13-10 win) and that has pushed this total lower than it should be. The total in that game was 42 and that was with Seattle facing one of the best defenses in the NFL (Saints 6th in YPP allowed and 3rd in DVOA defense), a poor offense (Saints 27th in YPP gained), and a team that ranks dead last in the NFL in pace. Now we’re getting almost the same number vs a Jacksonville defense that ranks dead last in DVOA defense & 31st in YPP allowed, a decent offense (Jags 13th in YPP gained) and a team that ranks first in the NFL in pace. Seattle’s offense hasn’t been great but they’ve faced 3 straight very solid defensive teams (Rams, Steelers, and Saints). Geno Smith and company will look much better vs a Jax defense that allows 420 YPG (30th in the NFL). Same with Jacksonville coming off a bye and facing a Seattle defense that ranks 31st in the same category allowing 428 YPG. This is the lowest total of the year for Jacksonville and the 2nd lowest for Seattle just 1 point lower than their game on Monday night as we mentioned. The weather last Monday night was poor (rain and wind) but looks perfect for Sunday. We’re comfortable with both teams topping 20 points in this game and we like the OVER. |
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10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -114 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
#258 ASA PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis -2.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Revenger from earlier this year for the Colts. They weren’t playing well at the time and lost 25-16 @ Tennessee. Indy has since started to play much better winning 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Baltimore in a game they led by 16 in the 4th quarter. This is a rough spot for Tennessee. They are coming off back to back huge home games beating both Buffalo & KC. Now going on the road for the first time in 3 weeks. Their 3 road games haven’t been overly impressive. They lost at the NYJ giving the Jets their only win of the season. Their other 2 roadies were wins @ Seattle in OT (Tenn was down 24-9 at half), and they beat a bad Jacksonville team. They were outgained drastically in each of those games with a -1.2 YPP differential @ Seattle, -1.3 @ NY Jets, and -0.9 @ Jacksonville. We still feel the Titans are overvalued. They are 5-2 on the season yet their YPP differential is -0.4. DVOA agrees with us as they have the Titans ranked 20th in the NFL right now (Colts are 15th). Indy actually averages more YPP offensively (5.8 to 5.6) and allows less defensive (5.8 to 6.0). The Colts definitely have the better defense in this game and their offense is starting to come around. QB Wentz has been solid since getting over his early season injury throwing 8 TDs and no picks his last 4 games. RB Taylor has kept the offense very balanced averaging 138 total yards per game his last 4. With a record of 3-4 and a loss already @ Tennessee, this is a must win for the Colts at home. Lay it. |
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10-30-21 | Ole Miss v. Auburn -2.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
#196 ASA PLAY ON 10* Auburn -2.5 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Big mismatch situationally. Auburn is coming off a bye week where they were able to rest up and get healthy. Ole Miss will be playing their 5th straight week of brutally tough games without a break. That includes @ Bama, home vs Arkansas, @ Tennessee, home vs LSU, and now @ Auburn. The Rebel offense, while still good, has slowed down immensely since hitting their SEC slate. They were averaging 52.6 PPG in the non-conference but have been held to 31 points or less in 3 of their 4 SEC games. Their defense is among the worst in the nation ranking 100th in total defense and 98th in rush defense. The latter will be a problem here vs an Auburn rushing attack that puts up 198 YPG. The Tigers have a very solid offensive line and should dominated an Rebel defensive front that isn’t all that good and will most likely be worn down after the gauntlet they’ve faced over the last month. Auburn’s QB Nix looked great in his last game after getting a little extra motivation getting benched vs Georgia the previous week. He threw for 290 yards and had an 80% completion rate vs a solid Arkansas team. Auburn’s only 2 losses this year are at home vs Georgia (the best team in the nation) and @ Penn State when the Nittany Lions were at full strength. Ole Miss has played only 2 road games this season and one was a blowout loss @ Alabama and the other they had to hold on to be an OK Tennessee team 31-26. Night game in Auburn should be rockin’ and we’ll lay the small number. |
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10-30-21 | Georgia v. Florida UNDER 51 | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
#197/198 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points - Georgia vs Florida, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The World’s largest Cocktail party takes place this weekend when Georgia and Florida meet for their annual showdown. According to our computer analytics you can bet and expect a lower scoring affair. The Bulldogs have one of the best defenses we’ve seen in quite a few years and put up some eye-popping statistics thus far. The Dawgs are allowing just 1-point scored for every 31.8 yards gained. To put that into perspective, in the last ten years no team has finished the season at 24.5YPPT or better. Georgia just faced three SEC teams that were top 50 in scoring per game, and they gave up a total of just 23 combined points in all three. Florida has solid overall offensive numbers, but they haven’t faced a defense like Georgia’s. In fact, the two closest defenses the Gators have faced this season are Alabama’s and Kentucky’s who allow a full 100-more yards more per game than Georgia does. Florida scored 29-points on Bama (who is down defensively by their standards) and put up 440 total yards. That equates to 1-point for every 15-yards gained which is roughly the national average. Against Kentucky, the Gators managed 382 yards and 13 points. Georgia allows just 209YPG on the season and holds opponents to just 3.4 Yards per Play (1st) so don’t expect Florida to move the ball successfully against this stop-unit. The Bulldogs are very pedestrian offensively and prefer to wear their opponents out with a power rushing attack that averages 193 yards per game. Florida has some solid defensive numbers overall (give up just 21.1PPG, and 16YPPT) and are especially good against the pass. Georgia plays at one of slowest paces in the country ranking 117th in pace of play. Florida isn’t much faster, ranking 73rd. These two teams played in a higher scoring game a year ago with Florida putting up 44 points and 571 total yards. That’s not happening this year and expect this game to revert to the low scoring contests like 2015-2019 which finished with 30, 34, 49, 53 and 41-points. The Under is now 7-3 the last ten meetings. |
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10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay +6.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Overreaction here to GB’s potential players being out. This line has moved all the way from -3 to -6.5 in favor of Arizona. WR Adams has not been ruled out and might play here if he has back to back negative Covid tests. Remember he did not test positive, he was simply in close contact. Even if he doesn’t play, the Packers have found a way to be successful without him in the lineup (6-0 with Adams out). This is one of the best teams in the NFL and capable of winning this game regardless of the situation. Let’s put this in perspective. This Arizona team was just favored by 6 at home vs SF a few weeks ago with rookie QB Lance making the first start of his career (Zona won the game 17-10 but they were outgained). Now they favored by a half point more vs Aaron Rodgers? Ridiculous. The last 3 QB’s the Cards have faced were Houston’s rookie Davis Mills, Cleveland’s injured Baker Mayfield, and SF’s rookie Lance. Talk about a huge step on for this defense on Thursday. GB is more than capable of running the ball effectively with RB’s Jones and Dillon vs an Arizona defense that ranks 31st allowing 5.0 YPC. If they can do that and open up play action for Rodgers, this game will be close throughout. The Cards have played 3 home games this year and 2 of those went to the wire vs SF (with rookie QB) and Minnesota (Vikes missed potential game winning FG as time expired). Their only easy home win was last Sunday vs a terrible Houston team. Green Bay’s defense ranks 7th in the NFL allowing 20.8 PPG and since their season opening debacle @ New Orleans, they’ve allowed an average of just 18 PPG. We don’t see Arizona running away with this game. GB has been tabbed an underdog just 3 times in their last 25 games and the highest number during that stretch was +3 this year @ SF a game GB won. Getting almost a full TD with Aaron Rodgers at QB is worth a take. Green Bay is the play. |
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10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks +4 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +4 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Would not be comfortable laying points on the road with this Saints offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in a number of key categories. They rank 29th in YPG, 25th in YPP, and they have the worst passing YPG differential in the NFL at -105. Since catching the Packers off guard in week 1, the Saints are 2-2 and have been outgained in all 4 of those games (wins vs Washington & New England). In those 4 games vs marginal competition (NE, Wash, Caro, and NYG) New Orleans has been outgained by 387 total yards. All 4 of those teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in total offense and all have losing records. Their wins vs Washington (by 11 points) and New England (by 15 points) are a bit misleading. Versus Washington the Saints scored on a hail mary pass at the end of the first half which gave them a lead at half when it should have been tied. Take that away and they win by 5 points vs a bad Washington team. Versus New England they scored on a pick 6 and they were +3 turnovers but got outgained on a YPP basis by the Pats. New Orleans is coming off a bye week but let’s remember Seattle has had some solid rest as well having 10 days between their games vs Rams & Steelers (most recent game) and now an extra day as well playing on Monday night. Not a big advantage for New Orleans in our opinion. QB Geno Smith has had more time to acclimate himself as the starter and he played pretty well last Sunday vs one of the top defenses in the NFL. He completed 71% of his passes for over 200 yards and 1 TD vs the Steelers in Seattle’s 3-point loss in OT. The defense isn’t great but they did step up last week holding Pittsburgh to 4.9 YPP. They won’t have to be great here vs this New Orleans offense. Rain and wind expected in Seattle tonight and a low scoring game is expected (total at 41.5). We expect a big effort from Seattle in prime time in their first home game since losing Russell Wilson. We anticipate a close game throughout with Seattle having a chance to pull the upset. Take the points. |
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10-24-21 | Bears v. Bucs -11.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
#468 ASA TOP PLAY ON Tampa Bay -11.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for the Bears. They like to establish the run as their passing attack is remedial at best. Chicago is the only team in the NFL with less than 50% of their yardage coming from the passing game. The problem here is, it’s really tough to run on the Bucs. They are allowing just 54 YPG on 3.4 YPC. It’s gotten to a point where teams don’t even try to run on Tampa as just 27% of opposing plays have been on the ground – least in the NFL. If Chicago can’t run, they are in huge trouble. Their offense has zero chance of keeping up in this game. The Bears rank last in the NFL averaging 4.3 YPP. They are averaging just 16.3 PPG which is 30th in the NFL and they’ve scored only 10 offensive TD’s in 6 games this season. Rookie QB Fields has played been the starter for 4.5 games now (came in at halftime of Cincinnati game) and he’s only completing 53% of his passes for an average of 138 passing yards per game. He’s thrown only 2 TD passes this year and the Bears as a whole have thrown only 3 TD passes which is the fewest in the NFL. They have topped 300 total yards just once in their last 5 games and that was vs a bad Detroit defense. Those offensive numbers won’t get it done here. Tampa will score points. They are averaging 32.5 PPG and at home they are putting up a remarkable 41 PPG this season. They’ve been a double digit favorite their last 2 home games and blasted Atlanta 48-25 and Miami 45-17. They’ve had extra time to get ready for this having played in Philadelphia on Thursday night. This is a revenger as they lost to Chicago last year in the infamous Brady lost track of what down it was game. He takes that stuff to heart and you can bet he wants to blast Chicago here. Double digit favorites in the NFL have been a successful 7-2 ATS this season and as long as this one stays under 14 points we’ll lay it as Chicago’s offense won’t be able to score enough to get this cover. |
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10-24-21 | Washington Football Team v. Packers OVER 47.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
#455/456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 47.5 Points – Washington vs Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Green Bay has been an Under team this year with 2 overs & 4 unders. This is a spot to jump on the Over in our opinion. The Packers are averaging just 24 PPG this season but they’ve played a very tough slate of defenses with 5 of their 6 opponents ranking in the top 12 in defensive DVOA. The only bottom half defense they played this season was Detroit and Green Bay put up 35 points in that game. Their opening game vs New Orleans (just 3 points) has also skewed their overall offensive scoring numbers. Here they face a Washington defense that ranks 31st in total defense and dead last in scoring defense allowing 31 PPG. They are allowing opponents to score points on 52% of their drives (last in the NFL) and they have been unable to get off the field on defense allowing a ridiculous 58% conversion rate on 3rd down (last in NFL and league average is 40%). Washington has allowed at least 30 points in each of their last 4 games while GB has averaged almost 27 PPG over their last 4 facing high end defenses Chicago, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and San Fran. Unless they completely implode, GB will score 30+ here. Can Washington score enough to get this one Over the total? We think so. They have scored at least 21 points in 4 of their last 5 and the Green Bay defense is the worst in the NFL in the red zone allowing an amazing 15 TD’s on 15 opponent trips inside the 20 yard line this year. Washington games are averaging 54 points this season and with the GB offense finally facing a bad defense, this has the makings of a high scoring affair. We like the Over here. |
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10-23-21 | UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 45-16 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech +6.5 vs UTSA, 7 PM ET - Meep, meep…here come the 7-0 #24 ranked UTSA Roadrunners! This is uncharted territory for UTSA who has never been ranked in the top 25 ever before and the impact in the line is evident. The Roadrunners have played the 96th easiest schedule to date with their best win coming against an average 4-3 Memphis team. Their other five FBS wins have come against teams with a combined 8-23 SU record. LA Tech comes into this huge conference showdown off an embarrassing 3-19 performance versus UTEP and will be primed for a game against a ranked opponent. In their game versus UTEP the Bulldogs had 3 crucial turnovers, 2 failed 4th down conversions and only scored once in five possessions in the red zone. Prior to that game, LA Tech had scored in 15 of 16 RZ trips. The Bulldogs have faced the much tougher schedule to date with 2-point loss to 6-0 SMU, 1-pt loss to SEC Mississippi State and a 7-point loss to 18th ranked NC State. The Bulldogs could very well have won all three of those games. UTSA is 10-2 ATS their last twelve road games BUT they were underdogs in all but one of those and they failed to cover as a road favorite. Since 2019 LA Tech has been a home dog just 4 times and they’ve covered three with an average loss margin of just -0.5PPG. |
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10-22-21 | Colorado State v. Utah State OVER 58 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 58 Points - Colorado State at Utah State, Friday 10:30 PM ET - The first statistics that jumped out to us in this matchup is the pace of play numbers. These two teams rank in the top 15 in terms of plays run per minute and both average over 76 plays run per game. That obviously favors a higher scoring game with more possessions for each offense. Colorado State has some impressive defensive numbers but when you factor in the offenses faced, the numbers become less impressive. CSU is 9th in total yards allowed per game, 21st in passing yards given up and 16th in rushing yards allowed BUT they’ve faced six teams that rank 107th or worse in total offense and another team Toledo who ranks 74th. But on the flip side, the Rams offense is much better than their season numbers would indicate as they’ve faced some of the nation’s best defenses. San Jose State, Iowa, Toledo and San Diego State all rank 47th or better in total defense, three of those teams are top 25 in yards allowed per game. Utah State is more than capable offensively with a unit that averages over 484YPG (11th) is 15th in passing and 59th in rushing YPG. The Aggies numbers aren’t misleading either as they’ve faced some solid defenses in BYU, Boise State and Washington State who all rank 60th to 79th in total defense. Utah State is near the bottom of the nation defensively in yards per game allowed (108th), yards per play allowed (112th) and 85th in points allowed per game at 30.6PPG. We have lost value in this number from where it opened at, but the move hasn’t been enough according to the math. Bet Over. |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +5.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State +5.5 over Coastal Carolina, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - CC is undefeated this season but their schedule has been one of the easiest in the country. App State will be by far the best team they’ve faced this year. Coastal’s strength of schedule ranks 159th in the nation when including FCS teams schedules which says a lot since there are only 130 FBS teams. To date they have faced Citadel, Kansas, Buffalo, UMass, UL Monroe, and Arkansas State. Not one of those teams ranks inside the Sagarin top 100 and their combined record is 11-26. App State is 4-2 on the season but they’ve played 4 teams that are better than any opponent CC has faced (Miami FL, ECU, UL Lafayette, and Marshall). It’s really tough to even strongly consider their offensive stats when the FBS teams they’ve faced currently rank 130th, 129th, 118th, 116th, and 113th in total defense (out of 130). On the other side of the ball the Chanticleer defense has faced only one offense ranked higher than 71st. App State has 2 losses on the season, a 2-point setback at Miami FL where the Canes needed a late FG to get the win and their most recent game @ ULL. That was by far their worst performance of the year getting blown out by a very solid ULL team but committing 4 turnovers leading to 21 points for ULL. App State was also 0 of 11 on third downs. Just a terrible performance by a solid team and we expect them to bounce back and play very well at home. These 2 met last year in Coastal where App was a 3-point dog and lost by 11. They outgained CC by 45 yards in that game. Now they are getting more points at home this year vs a team that hasn’t played anybody. CC has played 2 road games this year and one of those vs Buffalo went to the wire and turned out as a 3-point win for Coastal. This game will be much tougher. CC hasn’t played in almost 2 weeks which isn’t ideal at this time of year. App State has been great at home where they have a 29-3 record their last 32 and all 3 of those losses were by a FG or less. This sets up for an upset on Wednesday night and we like App State + the points. |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
#276 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +6.5 over Buffalo, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bills are overvalued right now with their string of blowouts + a win over KC last weekend. Let’s remember that, while impressive, their last 4 wins have come vs Miami (with Brissett making first start this year at QB), Washington (with QB Heinicke making 2nd start), Houston (with rookie Mills at QB) and KC (who turned the ball over 4 times in the game to 0 for Buffalo & KC ain’t the KC of last year as they are 3-3 on the season). This is also a terrible spot for the Bills. They focused much of their off-season on beating KC in that game last week after losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game last year. That was, in essence, their regular season Super Bowl. Now they go on the road in a game the opener was set at -3 and it’s been bet up to nearly a TD. The Tennessee offense is getting healthy again as WR’s Jones is expected back tonight. RB Henry has rushed for nearly 4,800 yards in his last 40 games and they are very dangerous offensively if they can mix up the run and pass. We think they’ll do that tonight vs Bills team that has solid numbers vs the run but they’ve faced 4 rushing attacks ranked 19th or lower this season. This Tennessee coaching staff knows something about beating the Bills. Last year Buffalo strolled into town with an impressive 9-2 record favored by 3 vs this Titans. They left with a 42-16 loss. It was one week after the Bills played KC very similar to this situation. The dog has covered 6 straight in this series and let’s not act as of this Tennessee team is some slouch. They are 3-2 this year so this is a huge game for them and they won the AFC South a season ago. We’re not talking about Jacksonville or the NY Jets here. They are a playoff caliber team getting nearly a TD at home. This one stays close throughout and we’ll take the points. |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -3 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 70 h 5 m | Show |
#268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - We love the way this one has set up. We’re getting one of the top teams in the NFL, Cleveland, off a loss and back at home. They are 3-2 on the season with down to the wire losses @ KC and @ LA Chargers and this is a huge game for them. The Browns lost 37-32 @ LA last week but outgained the Chargers in overall yardage and on a YPP basis. They were also +117 yards on the ground racking up 230 yards rushing on 6.6 YPC. Their defense underperformed last week but still rank 7th in YPP allowed even with that showing. The D should also be well rested having not been on the field for more than 25 minutes (out of 60 minutes) in any of their last 4 games. Arizona comes in 5-0 and ready to be plucked. Last week they played host to division rival San Francisco and won 17-0 despite being outgained on both a total yard and YPP basis. That was a Niner team with a rookie QB making his first start and SF has many opportunities to win that game. The Cards are off back to back division games so this is a nice letdown spot for them. It’s also a terrible match up for their defense. Cleveland is the best running team in the NFL averaging 187 YPG on 5.4 YPC. Arizona’s defense ranks 28th in rushing YPG allowed and 31st in YPC allowed. Not only that, the Cards give up big plays in the running game allowing an average of 5 carries per game of 10+ yards (last in the NFL) and they are 31st in the NFL on yardage allowed on carries of 10 yards or more. Bad news for them is Cleveland’s running game leads the NFL in yards gained on carries of 10 or more yards. So Cleveland won’t need their passing attack to pick up chunk yardage on Sunday. With the successful running game will come a great play action pass attack which is perfect for Baker Mayfield. If he’s asked to carry a team in the passing game, he can struggle, but if he is just complementary to their running game, he can be very good and so can Cleveland’s offense. Arizona also relies on running the ball but they are facing a MUCH tougher Cleveland defense allowing just 3.4 YPG (3rd in the NFL). It’s supposed to be windy in Cleveland so the Browns dominance in the running game will be even more pronounced. On top of that, Arizona has been hit by Covid this week and one of their top defensive players, DE Chandler Jones, will be out. Who knows if there are more to come? Arizona QB Murray has been limited in practice this week due to a shoulder injury and his top target WR Hopkins may not play on Sunday due to an illness which we might assume is Covid since it has hit the team. Another one of Murray’s top targets, TE Williams is now out for the year after getting injured last Sunday. Despite their records, our power ratings have Cleveland the better team. They are +1.2 YPP differential while the undefeated Cards are +0.7 YPP. Now we’re getting what we feel is the better team, in a much more desperate situation at home coming off a loss. Cleveland is the play here. |
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10-17-21 | Chiefs v. Washington Football Team OVER 54 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
#257/258 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54 Points – Kansas City vs Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This has the makings of a shootout. The KC defense ranks last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 7.1 and they’ve allowed 4 straight opponents to reach at least 30 points. The only opponent that did not reach 30 points vs this sieve of a defense was Cleveland and they scored 29. Opponents are scoring on 54% of their drives vs this KC defense which ranks them last in the league in that category. KC’s offense continues to be nearly unstoppable. Last week they “only” scored 20 points against the NFL’s top defense Buffalo that allows just 12 PPG. In that game KC has plenty of chances getting shut out on downs inside Bills territory and committing 2 of their 4 turnovers deep inside the Buffalo 15 yard line. In their other 4 games the Chiefs have averaged 33.5 PPG. Now they face a Washington defense that is WAY down from last year allowing 31 PPG after allowing 21 PPG last season. In their last 4 games Washington has allowed 29, 43, 33, and 30 points. Two of those four teams that lit the Washington defense up are rated 22nd or lower in scoring this year (Giants & Falcons). Opponents are scoring on over 52% of their drives vs this Washington defense which ranks them 31st in the league. They will not shut this KC offense down who comes in off a loss. Washington’s offense has been clicking scoring an average of 27 PPG over their last 4 games and 2 of those games were vs Buffalo (#1 scoring defense) and New Orleans (#11 scoring defense). Now they face the worst scoring defense in the NFL with KC allowing 32.6 PPG. Oh by the way, Washington defense is the 2nd worst scoring defense in the league giving up 31 PPG. KC games are averaging 64 PPG this year (1st in the NFL) and Washington games are averaging 55 PPG (4th in the NFL). This one goes OVER. |
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10-16-21 | Nebraska -3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
#143 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska -4 over Minnesota, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We were on the Huskers last week and wound up with a push as they lost by 3 to Michigan. Nebraska fumbled in their own territory late in that game setting up the Wolverines for the game winning kick. Nebraska has been tested as much as any team in the country over the past month. They have faced three top 10 teams and stood toe to toe with all of them. They lost at Oklahoma by a TD yet outgained the Sooners on a YPP basis. A week later they traveled to undefeated Michigan State and lost in OT despite outgaining the Spartans by 186 yards! Then last week their close loss to Michigan. Those 3 teams are a combined 18-0 and Nebraska was close to winning each of those games. The only team they’ve faced in the last month that wasn’t in the top 10 was Northwestern and they beat the Wildcats 56-7. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been struggling with lower tier opponents. Their last 4 games they almost lost at home to Miami OH, won @ Colorado, lost at home to Bowling Green, and then beat Purdue but were outgained by 150 yards. The first 3 teams listed rank 104, 105, and 144 in College Football Sagarin ratings. Bowling Green, who beat Minnesota in Minneapolis, just lost at home by 15 points to an Akron team that had a record of 1-26 their last 27 games! The Gophers rely heavily on their ground game and they are now down to their 3rd string RB after losing starter Ibrahim in the season opener and then back up Potts was lost for the season in their most recent game vs Purdue. Their offense has put up an average of just 15 PPG and 270 YPG over their last 2 games. Nebraska’s offense is humming against top notch competition averaging over 500 YPG in their last 6 games. We see no way Minnesota will be able to keep up here. They take a huge step up in competition and if they are struggling to beat middle of the pack MAC teams at home, they’re in trouble here. The Huskers are +1.8 YPP differential on the season while Minnesota is just +0.2 YPP despite the difference in their schedule strength. Nebraska is MUCH better than their record and we see a double digit win on Saturday. Lay the small number with the Huskers. |
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10-15-21 | Marshall v. North Texas UNDER 67 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #117/118 UNDER 67 Marshall vs North Texas, Friday 7 PM ET - Our computer simulators are predicting 60 or less points in this Conference USA showdown. If we do a quick comparison, we see North Texas recently played a similar team to Marshall in LA Tech a few weeks ago and Vegas had set a number of 64.5. That game stayed below the Total with just 41-points scored. Marshall also played a team that resembles UNT in Middle Tennessee State which finished with 62-Total points and Under 66. The Mean Green are coming off a very high scoring game against SEC Missouri but most of their yardage and points came in garbage time after they were down 41-14. That game also featured an uncharacteristic number of big plays with a 40-yard INT for a TD and 3 TD’s of 50+ yards. Marshall is coming off a low scoring affair against Old Dominion which was tied at 13 points apiece prior to overtime. The Herd rely on a passing attack that is 6th in the nation in passing yards per game at 358 but the Mean Green rank 50th in passing yards allowed per game. Not to mention, UNT has faced 4 offenses this year that rank 36th or better in passing which makes their defensive numbers even more impressive. We know North Texas will want to exploit the Herd’s rushing defense that allows over 212RYPG this year which ranks them 119th in the country. North Texas is averaging over 200RYPG on the season and should have success on the ground here. UNT on a 4-1 Under run while Marshall 4-0 Under their last four Conference USA games. Bet Under here. |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 51.5 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 56 m | Show |
#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points- Tampa Bay vs Philadelphia, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Both of these teams play at a fast pace which should give us plenty of offensive opportunities. Tampa ranks #1 in the NFL in pace averaging 1 play every 25 seconds and Philly is #5 in that category at 1 play every 26.4 seconds. Both offenses are extremely efficient with each ranking in the top 10 averaging more than 6 YPP. Tampa has been in 4 high scoring games and just 1 low scoring game. Their only stinker on offense was @ New England in a driving rainstorm vs a coach who knows what it takes to slow down a Brady led offense. Their other 4 games all went over the total and all reached at least 58 points with an average combined score of 63 points. The Eagle defense has faced 2 similar offenses this year in Dallas & KC and they allowed 41 & 42 points in those 2 games respectively. Philly will have to keep up on offense here if they want a shot at a win. We think they can. The Tampa defense has dropped off drastically from last season allowing 24 PPG after allowing 21 PPG last season. They’ve had 2 good defensive efforts this year but those were vs 2 offensive teams that rank near the bottom of the NFL in a number if key categories (Miami & New England – 31st & 27th in YPP offense). In their other 3 games the Bucs have allowed 34, 29, and 25 points. This selection is being made on Tuesday and as of now the weather looks perfect in Philly on Thursday night. Tom Brady did injure his thumb last Sunday @ Miami but he did so early in the game and still went on to throw for over 400 yards and 5 TD’s. Reports as of Tuesday say he will be fine on Thursday. The projected final score of this game based on the 7 point spread is Tampa 29.5 – Philadelphia 22.5. Our projections has both teams topping those numbers with TB pushing into the 30’s and the Eagles to the mid 20’s. Take the OVER on Thursday night. |
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
#475 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco +5.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Arizona has started the season a perfect 4-0 while San Fran is off back to back home losses vs Green Bay & Seattle. Thus, this line is higher than it should be according to our power ratings. If this was the season opener, we’re looking at right around pick-em for a line and now we get the Niners at +5. Arizona was very fortunate in their only home tilt this year as the Vikings missed a FG at the buzzer that would have given them the win (Zona won 34-33). They struggled to a 31-19 win @ Jacksonville but the Cards were trailing 19-10 late in the 3rd quarter in that game when a pick 6 turned the game around (Jax also had 4 TO’s). After picking up a nice win last week @ LA Rams (Rams were in letdown spot of win over Bucs) the Cardinals stock is a bit high right now. San Fran lost 28-21 at home to Seattle last week but they dominated the stat sheet with a +2.0 YPP differential, +1.1 YPC differential, and 9 more first downs. Starting QB Garoppolo was injured and rookie QB Lance came in an did very well in the 2nd half. While Lance was in the game the 49ers outgained Russell Wilson and the Seahawks 230 to 170 so he played well. It looks like he will most likely start this weekend which will be tough on Arizona with San Francisco bringing an entirely different offensive gameplan to the table that HC Shanahan has been waiting to unleash. The Cardinal defense will be running blind in this one as far as being able to game plan for the SF offense. The last 14 times San Francisco was coming off back to back losses as favorites, they were 11-3 ATS in their next game. This has been an underdog series with the puppy going 5-0-1 ATS the last 6 meetings including 4 outright wins. Last year the Niners were 6 point underdogs @ Arizona with CJ Beathard at QB and won the game! This is a buy low (SF) / sell high (Arizona) spot for us and we like the 49ers to get the cover. |
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10-10-21 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 52 | Top | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 52 Points – NY Giants vs Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Dallas offense is humming right now ranking 4th in the NFL at 31.5 PPG. They have scored 77 points in 2 games at home this season including 36 last week vs Carolina, who did have the top defense in the league entering the game allowing just 10 PPG on 3.7 YPP. Dallas shredded the Panthers last week for 7.7 YPP which was a full 4 YPP more than they were allowing entering the game. Now they face an NYG defense that ranks 23rd in YPP allowed which is the lowest of any team the Cowboys have faced so far. They will continue to put points on the board in this game. Surprising to many, the Giants offense ranks 8th in the NFL in YPP at 6.2. We were ultra impressed with their offense last week as they rolled up an average of 8.1 YPP on a very good New Orleans defense. Dallas owns the 30th ranked defense allowing 6.4 YPP. So we have 2 good offense, each facing the worst defense they’ve played this season. All but 1 of the Cowboys games this year have reached at least 60 points and that was vs the Chargers who’ve held a number of top notch offenses to their season lows. 9 of the last 12 meetings in Dallas have gone OVER the total and these two have scored an average of 55 points in those 12 meetings. Both teams capable of hitting high 20’s to 30+ so OVER is the play. |
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10-09-21 | Michigan v. Nebraska UNDER 50 | Top | 32-29 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
#381/382 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50 Points – Michigan vs Nebraska, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We like the value in the number here when we consider the Wolverines just faced a Badgers team in Madison with a Total set of 43.5-points. That game did go Over the number but Wisconsin gifted UM with several turnovers which resulted in easy scores. Nebraska is coming off a game against a bad Northwestern defense and put up 56-points which has forced the oddsmaker to adjust this number up. This game shapes up to be very similar to the Michigan State/Nebraska game which finished with 43-total points in OT. We get two of the top 13 scoring defenses in the country squaring off as the Huskers rank 13th in points allowed per game at 15.5 while the Wolverines have given up just 12.8PPG Nebraska 17th in rushing attempts per game at 43.8, Michigan is 11th at 45.8. But both will have a hard time running the football against each other’s defense as the Wolverines allow just 3.3-Yards Per Rush (24th), while the Huskers give up just 3.5YPR (32nd). Michigan has some strong Over support overall, but when coming off a SU win they are 2-4 Under their last six. The Under is 7-0 in NU's past seven as a dog. |
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10-09-21 | San Jose State v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 14-32 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
#346 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -3 over San Jose State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Big time red flags over the last month with this SJSU team. Their travel schedule has been brutal and it’s started to show. This will be their 4th road game in their last 5 games. Since September 4th they have played @ USC, @ Hawaii (long travel), @ Western Michigan (long travel), at home last week vs a terrible NM State team and now @ CSU who is coming off a bye week. In their most recent 3 games the Spartans did beat Hawaii 17-13 but they only gained 291 yards on 3.7 YPP vs a Rainbow defense that allows 5.4 YPP on the season (ranked 67th). SJSU then went to Western Michigan and got rolled 23-3 while getting outgained by 228 yards. Last week they played host to New Mexico State, one of the worst teams in college football, and won 37-31 and only outgained the Aggies by 19 yards. That’s an “almost” home loss to a NM State that that is 1-6 this season (only win vs an FCS team) and has won only 5 of their last 26 games. Starting QB Starkel didn’t play in that game and might not here. CSU has shown some solid growth over the last month beating a solid Toledo team on the road 22-6 and they followed that up with a tight 24-14 loss @ #3 Iowa, a game they led at halftime. The Rams outgained Toledo and were out yarded by just 28 total yards vs the Hawkeyes. This team is rested and headed in the right direction. Their opponent SJSU is not. Lay the small number in this one. |
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10-08-21 | Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 17 m | Show |
#307 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +29.5 over Cincinnati, Friday at 7 PM ET - This is a classic letdown spot for the Bearcats. They are coming off games vs Indiana & Notre Dame and they have UCF on deck. All off-season the talk was if this team can get by IU and the Irish they have a great shot at an undefeated season. Those 2 games were this teams “Super Bowls” so to speak and playing a home game as nearly a 30 point favorite after beating the Irish will be tough. The only other potential roadblock on their way to an undefeated season is probably UCF next week so focusing on Temple won’t be easy. The Owls are better than people might think. Their defense is very solid allowing just 313 YPG on 4.6 YPP. Last week they held a potent Memphis offense to just 5.8 YPP and the Tigers had just 385 total yards of offense entering their final offensive possession with 2:30 remaining in the game. Memphis scored with 30 seconds left to cut the Temple lead to 3 points but the Owls held on to win. The Temple offense struggled in mid September but much of that was because their starting QB Mathis (Georgia transfer) was out with an injury. He’s been back for their last 2 games and led the Owls to 72 points while passing for over 600 yards and 2 TD’s. Now we don’t expect him to put up those numbers vs Cincy but he’ll do enough to keep them within this huge number. This isn’t the same Temple team that was routed by Rutgers in the season opener. They are much better and that game was extremely misleading as well with the Owls turning the ball over 6 times in that game. Because of that, we are still getting line value with Temple who is now at full strength. These two AAC rivals last met in 2019 and Cincinnati was a 7.5 point home favorite and beat Temple 15-13. Now they are laying almost 30 points! Temple has covered 5 straight in this series and we think their defense is solid enough to not let the Bearcat offense go wild in this game. Their offense is also underrated and may not need to score many points to keep this within the number. Take the points with Temple. |
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10-07-21 | Rams -2 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 56 h 46 m | Show |
#301 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -2 over Seattle, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We like this spot for the Rams. They are the better team and coming off a loss last Sunday at home vs Arizona. It wasn’t overly surprising as, despite it being a division game, it was a big time letdown spot for the Rams after beating up on Tampa Bay a week earlier. Despite their 37-20 loss to the Cards, the yardage was about dead even (6.3 YPP to 6.2 YPP) but LA had 2 key turnovers that directly led to 14 points for Arizona. The Rams also missed a FG and were shut out on downs at the Arizona 1-yard line. Seattle is coming off a game they had to win @ San Francisco after losing back to back games vs the Titans & Vikings. Those 2 losses don’t look great for Seattle now as Tennessee just lost to the Jets and Minnesota was ousted at home by Cleveland. The Seahawks did what they needed to do last week picking up a 28-21 win vs the Niners. It wasn’t all that impressive however as they were outgained by a wide margin (6.3 YPP to 4.3 YPP) and SF starting QB Garoppolo didn’t play in the 2nd half due to an injured leg leaving it up to inexperienced rookie Trey Lance. With Lance running the show in the 2nd half the 49ers actually outgained Seattle 230 to 172 but a key fumble from the rookie led to a 14 yard TD drive for the Seahawks which turned out to be the difference in the game. Seattle is also pretty banged up right now with 3 starters on both offense and defense possibly out on Thursday including top WR Metcalfe who has a foot injury. These 2 met 3 times last year (playoffs included) and the Rams won 2 of the 3 games including a 30-20 win @ Seattle in the playoffs and they outgained the Hawks 1,056 to 903. And that was with Jared Goff at QB not Matthew Stafford who is a big upgrade. Seattle used to be a covering machine at home but that hasn’t been the case as of late. They are just 8-10 ATS their last 18 home tilts dating back to the 2018 season. We like the better team, with the better defense, off a loss here. Take the Rams. |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51.5 Points – Las Vegas vs LA Chargers, Monday at 8 PM ET - We don’t expect this division battle to get to 50 points so we’re on the UNDER tonight. 8 of the last 9 meetings have not topped 50 points (in regulation). Last year both meetings went Over however one of those games went to OT and they combined for 9 points in OT otherwise it would have been Under. The Las Vegas passing game likes to attack defenses with deeper routes but this is a poor match up for them as the Chargers are the best in the league at preventing completed passes that travel 15+ yards. The Chargers defense also limits opposing QB’s to 6.6 yards per pass attempt and they’ve limited 2 of their 3 opponents to 20 points or less. That includes Dallas who has one of the top offenses in the league. The lone team to top 20 points was KC and even in that game they held the Chiefs to 24 points. If LAC can limit big plays the Raiders will struggle to score at the same rate they have so far this season. We like what new LAC HC Staley is doing with their defense as he led a top notch stop unit for the LA Rams before taking this job. On offense the Chargers scored just 20 & 17 in their first 2 games before hitting 30 last week @ KC, who has the worst defense in the NFL. Even in that game 10 of their 30 points came in the final 2:14 of the game. Vegas has much improved defensive numbers ranking 9th in the NFL allowing only 5.3 YPP. They are limiting QB’s to just 5.9 yards per pass attempt which ranks them on the top 5 in the league. The average point total in the NFL this year is 47 which is down nearly a full FG from last season. These 2 teams know each other very well and over the last 9 meetings they have only averaged 41 total points. This one stays UNDER the total. |
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10-03-21 | Seahawks +2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
#271 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a must win for Seattle who sits at 1-2 after blowing double digit leads in each of the last 2 weeks vs Tennessee & Minnesota. The Seattle offense has been rolling as they are averaging 7.4 YPP which is tops in the NFL this season. San Fran’s offense is heading in the opposite direction. After lighting up a bad Detroit defense for 8 YPP in their opener the Niners have averaged just 4.5 and 4.6 YPP their last 2 games vs Philly & Green Bay. The 49ers have been outgained by 1.5 YPP in each of their last 2 games and they were extremely lucky to win @ Philly and lucky to even have a chance vs Green Bay. The defense has been struggling as well allowing 6.0+ YPP in each of those games as well which isn’t ideal facing a red hot Seahawks offense. They are also really banged up in the defensive backfield as it looks like they will have only 4 healthy corners on the roster. One of those players is coming back from injury (Moseley) and two were not even on the active roster vs Green Bay. We expect Russell Wilson to have a huge day. Wilson has dominated San Francisco since taking over as Seattle’s starting QB in 2012. He is 15-4 SU vs the Niners in his career. The Hawks have also NEVER lost 3 games in a row since Wilson took over. They have lost 2 straight just 8 times in Wilson’s career and they are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS after those losses. The Niners, on the other hand, have been a terrible home favorite with an ATS record of just 5-20-1 ATS in that role since 2014. The better QB in a must win spot getting points is a nice situation. Seattle is the play. |
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10-03-21 | Panthers v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points – Carolina vs Dallas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Dallas is averaging 30 PPG and you might think this is a game they get shut down by a Carolina defense that ranks #2 in the NFL holding opponents to just 10 PPG. Forget about it. Dallas will put up plenty of points here. First of all the Panthers have face potentially the easy set of offenses in the NFL to date. Their games have come against the Jets with QB Wilson making the first start of his career, the Saints with QB Winston who didn’t play last season + a number of WR’s and offensive coaches out due to Covid, and the Texans with rookie QB Mills making his first start on a short week. Dallas put up 29 on a top notch Tampa defense and 41 last week on a Philly defense that, even after that game, has allowed just 4.7 YPP ranking them 7th in the NFL. The Carolina offense will have to keep up here. They haven’t had to do that yet this season after jumping out to leads and letting their defense dominate poor and inexperienced QB’s. Despite that they’ve still scored 26 & 24 points in their last 2 games so they are capable. The Cowboys rank 4th in the NFL in plays per game and Carolina is 6th so we look for a faster paced game with plenty of offensive snaps. This one goes OVER the total. |
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10-02-21 | Kansas v. Iowa State OVER 56.5 | Top | 7-59 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
#135/136 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 56.5 Points - Kansas vs. Iowa State, 7 PM ET - Kansas certainly won’t be confused with the Kansas City Chiefs offense, but they’ll score enough points here to help push this game OVER the number. The Jayhawks are averaging just 21PPG on the season, but they do average 5.8 yards per play (52nd) which is respectable. Kansas coach Leopold has won at every level and is known for his offensive schemes which produced 7.3 yards per play and 43.4PPG last year at Buffalo. The Cyclones come into this game off their second loss of the season and will make a statement here. ISU is averaging 6.1YPPL (35th) and 31.3PPG (46th) and has produced over 479 total yards in each of their last two games. They will have no problems scoring against the KU defense that has allowed 52, 45 and 49 points to three offenses (Duke, Baylor and Coastal) who are not as good as the Cyclones. Iowa State’s defense is over-rated based on our metrics after facing some poor offenses in Northern Iowa, Iowa and UNLV. Last year when these same two teams squared off they produced 74 total points. This one gets to the mid-60’s. Bet OVER |
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10-02-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
#178 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -3.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Okie State has played the MUCH tougher schedule here and they are 4-0 on the season. 3 of their wins have come vs Tulsa (who played Ohio St to the wire on the road), @ Boise State, and last week at home vs KSU. We have been impressed with their progression the last few weeks. Starting QB Sanders missed the first game of the season, struggled a bit vs Tulsa and Boise, but hit his stride last week throwing for 344 yards at home in a 31-20 win over Kansas State. His top WR Martin returned after missing the last 2 games and had 9 catches for 100 yards. The OSU defense has been playing lights out allowing just 2.6 YPC and 4.5 YPP on the season. They have allowed just 123 yards rushing total in their last 2 games vs Boise & KSU (2 YPC). That will be a problem for a Baylor team that prefers to run the ball (41 rushing attempts per game). The Bears are undefeated, however their first 3 wins were vs Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Their win last week vs Iowa State at home was one of the more misleading finals of the season. ISU gained 480 yards on 6.6 YPP in the game. Baylor gained 282 total yards on 5.2 YPP. The Bears offense scored TD’s on their first 3 possessions of the game on 206 total yards. After that, they totaled 66 yards on 30 plays for barely 2 YPP. The Bears didn’t have to show much offensively in their first 3 games vs terrible opponents and they surprises the Cyclones with some new looks, plays, and wrinkles on offense. Once the ISU defense settled in Baylor did almost nothing. Their only points after the first 3 possessions came on a 98 yard kickoff return and a short FG after a long punt return. The favorite has covered 15 of the last 21 meetings and the home team has covered 13 of the last 19. We like OSU at home. |
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10-01-21 | Houston v. Tulsa -4.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 54 m | Show |
#106 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulsa -4.5 over Houston, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - There is a reason the team that sits with a 1-3 record is favored over the team that has a 3-1 record. Tulsa is at home for this one and they’ve played a very tough schedule to date including games @ Ohio State and @ Oklahoma State. In their 28-23 loss @ Oklahoma State they outgained the Cowboys in that game plus held their own in the trenches limiting them to just 3.3 YPC on the ground. OSU had a 99 yard kickoff return for TD in that game which was the difference. When the Golden Hurricanes traveled to Ohio State they more than held their own vs the Buckeyes rolling up 501 total yards to 508 for the Bucks. That game was tight throughout despite the final margin. Tulsa trailed by just a TD @ Ohio State with under 4:00 minutes remaining in the game. Last Saturday Tulsa was back at home and topped Arkansas State 41-34. It could have been much worse as they held a 17 point lead in the 3rd quarter but ASU scored 13 of the games final 16 points including a 98 yard kickoff return. The stats in the game were extremely lopsided with Tulsa gaining 663 yards to 359 for Arkansas State. Houston steps in with a 3-1 record but they’ve played an easy schedule compared to Tulsa. The Cougs have faced Grambling, Rice, Navy, and Texas Tech thus far. Take out the Grambling game and the 2 wins for Houston vs Rice & Navy were not all that impressive. Those 2 teams are 0-6 SU combined vs FBS teams this season and 5 of those losses were blowouts. The only one that was close was Houston’s 28-20 win over Navy last week. The one decent team the Cougars played, Texas Tech, rolled them by 17 points outgaining Houston by 125 yards. Despite the big difference in opposition this season, Tulsa has gained an average of 6.9 YPP and allowed 5.6 YPP for a differential of +1.3 YPP. Houston’s YPP differential is +0.6 YPP despite their easy slate thus far. These 2 most recently met here in 2019 and Houston topped Tulsa as a 7-point dog despite getting outgained by 150 yards. Some revenge is in order on Friday night. We like this Tulsa team and feel they are undervalued right now. Lay the points here. |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars v. Bengals UNDER 46 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Jacksonville vs Cincinnati, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Cincinnati is 2-1 on the season and their defense is definitely flying under the radar. They rank 4th in the NFL in YPP allowed and 4th in yards per pass attempt allowed. The Bengals have allowed 46 offensive points in 3 games (minus opponents defensive or special teams scores) which is just 15.3 PPG. We expect them to limit a Jacksonville offense that is still working through their new system on that side of the ball. The Jags have scored just 6 offensive TD’s in 3 games and 3 of those came in their opener vs Houston. Last week the Jags vs Cards game totaled 51 points but 14 of those came on non-offensive TD’s so really just 36 points for the offenses. The week before vs Denver they totaled 36 points but that included a 102 yard kickoff return for Jacksonville so they scored just 29 offensive points combined. Both offenses rank 19th or lower in the league in YPP gained. They are ranked 25th (Bengals) and 31st (Jags) in 3rd down conversion percentage so keeping drives alive here will be tough. Cincy’s offense is slow paced (30th in the NFL) and they love to run the ball (almost 49% of the time – 4th in the NFL) which will eat clock. Jacksonville is faster paced yet they only run 61 plays per game which ranks them 22nd in the NFL. The projected score here is in the range of Cincinnati 27, Jacksonville 20 and we don’t see either team getting to those numbers. Take the UNDER on Thursday Night. |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Top Play on 10* UNDER 51.5 - The action on this game currently see’s more tickets coming in on the Over and more money on Under. We’ll side with the money and BET UNDER. 3 of the last four meeting have stayed UNDER the number and the one game that did go Over this Total of 51.5 was last year and it took a late TD with under 2 minutes to play to get to 54 total points. In those three games that stayed below the number these two teams averaged 35PPG. The Eagles put up yards and points in the opener against a horrible Falcons defense then were limited to 328 total yards and 11-points last week by San Francisco. Dallas isn’t as good as the 49ers defensively but they aren’t as bad as the Falcons either. The Cowboys weakness defensively is against the pass (31st) but the Eagles can’t take advantage with the 22nd ranked passing O averaging just 219PYPG. On the flip side the Cowboys (6th) ranked passing attack will have problems moving the ball against an Eagles pass D ranked 3rd. Much like last weeks low scoring game against the Chargers the Cowboys can rely on their rushing attack which is 7th best in the NFL against a Philly D giving up 120RYPG which ranks 19th. Dallas rush D over-rated as TBay and LAC only attempted 33 combined total rushes against them. Eagles will rely on one of the best rushing attacks averaging over 162 rushing yds per game. Eagles on 9-3 Under streak their last 12 games overall, Cowboys on 4-1 Under run as a favorite. |
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09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
#495/496 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Green Bay vs San Francisco, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Niner offense averaged a ridiculous 8.0 YPP in their week 1 win over Detroit. Last week they played a defense with a pulse @ Philly and only put up 17 points on 4.5 YPP. Green Bay’s defense gave up 38 in week one @ New Orleans but that was quite deceiving as the Saints only had 322 total yards in that game. The Saints had two TD drives of less than 22 yards and averaged 1 point for every 8.4 yards gained which was beyond efficient. The league average for yards per point is usually around 15 which would have translated to 21 points for the Saints with their yardage numbers in that game. Last week they allowed 17 points vs Detroit and held the Lions scoreless in the 2nd half. We project GB’s defense to be very solid this year and SF will have problems on offense Sunday. On the other side of the ball, SF’s defense has been very good. They shut down Philly to just 11 points last week and Detroit had 17 points the week prior with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game before scoring 2 late TD’s with the Niners in prevent mode. The GB offense looked better in the 2nd half last week but again, that was vs Detroit who projects to have one of the worst defense in the NFL. Even with that, Green Bay is only averaging 4.8 YPP on the season ranking them 26th in the NFL. They struggled big time vs a very good Saints defense (3 points) and we have San Fran’s stop unit on par with New Orleans. Both of these teams are very slow when it comes to pace. Green Bay finished dead last in pace a year ago running one play 31 seconds. San Francisco was 26th in pace last season. This year they both rank below 22nd in pace. With SF favored in the 3-point range, the expected score is right around 27-24. We don’t see either teams getting to their projected scoring numbers. Take the UNDER here. |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings +2 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
#494 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +2 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is an absolute must win for Minnesota. They have played better than their 0-2 record as they really could easily be 2-0. They lost in OT @ Cincinnati when they fumbled getting into FG range for the winning points. Last week they played @ Arizona and missed what would have been the game winning FG as time expired. Now they get their home opener where they are an impressive 16-4 (80%) their last 20 as a home dog dating back to 2012. The Vikings got their rushing attack rolling last week with 177 yards on 6.6 YPC and they are facing a Seattle team that has allowed 162 YPG this year on the ground (31st). Minny RB Cook was banged up last week but all indications are he will play on Sunday. Seattle has a great home field advantage but laying points on the road had not been a money maker for this team. They are 1-0 this year in that role but just 5-14-2 ATS laying point on the road from 2016 – 2020. Seattle blew a lead at home vs Tennessee at home last week and lost in OT. The were outgained by 135 yards in that game. They’ve been outgained by 90 yards on the season thus far. Last year Minnesota was +6.5 @ Seattle and lost a tight game 27-26 but outgained the Hawks 449 to 314. We love this spot for the Vikings and expect them to win this game outright. We’ll take the points here. |
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09-25-21 | Rutgers v. Michigan UNDER 50.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
#401/402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Rutgers vs Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This game is not going to play out like last years when these two teams combined for 90 points. Looking closer at that game, these two teams had 55 total points with five minutes to play before two late TD’s forced the game into overtime. They also had a 95-yards punt return for a TD and three touchdowns on big plays of 46 or more yards. We are betting this game plays out much differently and don’t see a high scoring affair. These two teams have been outstanding defensively this season with the Wolverines allowing 14, 10 and 10 points in three games this season. UM is 9th in points allowed per game, 26th in total yards allowed at 287YPG and 22nd in yards per play allowed at 4.4YPPL. Offensively the Wolverines rely on a rushing attack that is pounding out 350 rushing yards per game (1st) while scoring 47PPG. Those numbers are not sustainable and also come against a Western Michigan team that is 120th in yards allowed per game, Washington who is 42nd in YPG/allowed and Northern Illinois who ranks 103rd. So while UM is really good offensively their numbers are somewhat misleading. Rutgers has a defense allowing 261YPG which ranks 16th while allowing only 145 rushing yards per game which ranks 15th. The Knights give up just 11.3 points per game which is 8th best in the nation. Offensively the Knights have struggled though ranking 99th in yards gained per game while averaging just 3.6 yards per play (121st). Michigan is one of the slowest paced teams in college football and will dictate the tempo and pace here with their ground attack. Michigan has a much bigger opponent on deck in Wisconsin so look for them to call off the dogs late in this one. BET UNDER! |
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09-25-21 | UTSA +3.5 v. Memphis | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
#387 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for the Tigers. They are coming off a HUGE home win over SEC Mississippi State and the week prior to that they beat rival Arkansas State 55-50. Last week’s 31-29 win over MSU was very deceiving. We were on Memphis so we picked up a win but if you would have shown us the final stats before the game was played, we would not have been on the Tigers. Memphis was -14 first downs and -222 yards in that win over Mississippi State. They had a 94-yard punt return and 49-yard fumble return both for TD’s. If they take UTSA lightly after last week’s big win, they will lose here. They may lose even if they play well. UTSA is a very solid, veteran team. They come into this game with a 3-0 record including a win @ Illinois in their other road game this season. Say what you will about the Illini, but in their other 2 home games they beat Nebraska and nearly beat Maryland so that was a very good road win for UTSA who had 497 total yards of offense in that game. Last week they Road Runners topped Middle Tennessee State by 14 points but it should have been much worse as they won the yardage battle by +253. Their senior QB Harris is one of the better “unknown” signal callers in the country, just ask Illinois. We have an edge at that position as the Memphis QB is a freshman that’s played in 3 games in his career. Dating back to last season UTSA has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming in their bowl game 31-24 vs a very good Louisiana team that finished last year 10-1. We’re getting the better team, getting points, in a better situation. Take Texas San Antonio. |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | Top | 37-17 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia -4 over Wake Forest, Friday at 7 PM ET - We love this spot at home for UVA. They are off an embarrassing 59-39 loss @ North Carolina last Saturday. It was the Cavs first loss of the year. They are taking on a Wake team that is 3-0 but they’ve played all home games and faced a very easy schedule thus far. The Deacs topped an FCS team and a bad FBS team (Old Dominion) to start the season and then thumped a reeling Florida State team last week. While FSU isn’t very good – they lost at home the previous week to Jacksonville State – it was still a big win for WF vs a name program. The Wake defense has put up great numbers this year holding their 3 opponents to a combined 40 points but the offenses they’ve faced have been nothing close to what they’ll see on Saturday. Minus their FCS opponent, they have faced Old Dominion (122nd in total offense) and FSU (68th in total offense). Worse yet, those 2 teams aren’t adept at moving the ball through the air (ODU 118th in passing offense / FSU 84th in passing offense) and now they face a UVA team that leads the nation averaging 488 YPG through the air. The Cavs also rank 3rd in total offense and 11th in YPP offense. Wake’s defense takes a huge step up in competition on Saturday. UVA just saw one of the top offenses in the nation (UNC) last week and didn’t fare well but you can bet they’ll make adjustments this week and this will be a step down in competition for the Cavaliers. This is a game Virginia has been waiting for after losing 40-23 at Wake last year (Wake as a 2-point favorite). The yardage in the game was very close but the Cavs had 3 turnovers (0 for Wake), missed a FG, and were shut out on downs inside the WF 10-yard line. They had their chances to say the least. They haven’t been able to host WF since 2012 so it’s been almost a decade since they’ve had a shot at the Deacs here at home. Virginia has won 18 of their last 20 home games and only 3 of those 18 wins have come by less than a TD. Lay it. |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show |
#301/302 – ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – Carolina vs Houston, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We feel this is a bad spot for Carolina on the road for the first time coming off home wins over the Jets & Saints but we’re not about to take Houston in this game with their situation at QB. The Under is the best play in this game. Rookie Davis Mills will start at QB for Houston with Tyrod Taylor going on injured reserve. Mills played the 2nd half last week and let the Texans to one TD @ Cleveland. He was just 8 of 18 through the air and while he was in the game Houston averaged just 4.2 YPP. While he will get to practice with the starters this week, it’s only for a few days on a short week so far from ideal for a rookie QB. He’s facing a Carolina defense that’s allowed 21 points this season and they lead the NFL allowing just 3.7 YPP. Last week vs the Saints the Panthers allowed a total of 128 yards! Houston will struggle offensively in this game. The Panthers haven’t exactly lit the world on fire offensively with 19 points vs the Jets and 26 vs the Saints. Houston’s defense did a decent job last week vs one of the top offenses in the NFL holding the Browns to 355 total yards. Both of these teams like to run the ball ranking in the top 6 in carries per game which will help eat this clock and shorten the game. We foresee Carolina getting ahead in this game and grinding out a win with Houston’s offense doing very little. Play the UNDER on Thursday Night. |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
#287 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +3.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We have some serious week 1 overreaction taking place here. Prior to last week Arizona was favored by -1.5 in this game and now that they destroyed Tennessee last week and Minnesota lost in OT @ Cincinnati, this line has crossed the key number of 3 and we’re getting the Vikings at +3.5. We’ll take it. Minnesota will bring their “A” game here after losing a tough one last week in OT. The Vikes outgained Cincy in the game and had the ball moving into FG territory in OT when RB Cook fumbled. Cincy then kicked the game winning FG 2 minutes later as time expired. Minny HC Zimmer has been fabulous as an underdog off a SU loss going 21-6-1 ATS their last 28 in that role. Arizona looked great last week vs a Tennessee team we had projected to regress big time this year. The Titans despite finishing with 11 wins in the regular season, had a point differential of just +52 which ranked them 7th in the AFC and 12th in the NFL. Over half of their wins last year (6) were by 3 points or less or in overtime. Tennessee was -13 YPG last season and right around dead even in their yards per play differential (+0.1 YPP differential). They weren’t nearly as good as their record last year and last week they showed that. 3 turnovers by Tennessee led directly to 14 points for Arizona including a 1-yard TD drive by the Cards after a Titan fumble. Arizona QB Murray played the game of his life vs a poor Tennessee defense that finished last year ranked 29th in total defense and 24th in scoring defense. We expect Murray to come back to earth this week vs what we project to be a very solid Minnesota defense. Look for the Vikings to get the running game rolling this week behind Dalvin Cook. Arizona’s rush defense was near the bottom of the NFL last year but Tennessee had to abandoned their running game pretty quickly last week after getting down big early. We like the coaching edge with Zimmer as well in this game as Arizona coach Kingsbury is just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite since taking over in Arizona. Take the points. |
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09-18-21 | Kent State v. Iowa UNDER 56.5 | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
#147/148 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Under 56.5 Points – Kent State vs Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Our number has this total set at 51 so definitely value on the Under. Iowa defense is outstanding. They’ve allowed 23 points total this season and that was vs Indiana & Iowa State, two very solid Power 5 offensive teams. Last week the Hawkeyes held what we consider one of the better offensive teams in college football, Iowa State, to just 17 points in 4.7 YPP. Dating back to last year over their last 8 games, the Hawkeye defense has allowed just 13 PPG on 4.4 YPP. In their last 5 games vs the MAC conference, the Iowa defense has allowed an average of 10 PPG. Kent is off a high scoring win vs FCS VMI, however their lone game vs a Power 5 team this year they scored 10 points vs Texas A&M. Kent also loves to run the ball which eats clock. They ran it 45 times vs A&M and last year they finished 3rd nationally with 50 rush attempts per game. Here’s the problem. It’s really tough to run on Iowa. They have allowed 77 and 87 yards rushing the first two games and those, as we mentioned, we vs solid Power 5 offensive teams. Kent will have a tough time running the ball here. Iowa is a slow paced team. They prefer taking their time in the huddle which they will continue here. Their offense has been fairly pedestrian this year. They’ve put up only 476 total yards in 2 games. They have scored 61 total points but 3 of their TD’s have come from the defense and they’ve only had 4 TD’s this year from their offense. Since the start of last season Iowa has had a grand total of ONE game where they totaled more than 56 points. We anticipate Iowa getting ahead here and then slowing way down offensively to put it away in the 2nd half. That means Kent won’t have many chances and scoring vs this defense will be very tough when the do. Even if Iowa scores 40, which we don’t think they will, Kent would need to get to 17 to push this over the total. We look for a 35-14 type score keeping this UNDER the total. |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati -3.5 v. Indiana | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -3.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - After finishing with a solid 6-2 record but we felt they were due for a regression this year. The benefitted from a +8 turnover margin last year, they were outgained on the year despite their winning record, beat only 1 team that ended last year with a winning record, and their QB isn’t anywhere near 100%. Michael Penix is just 8 months removed from a 2nd ACL tear on the same knee. Our word from IU is that he is probably only 80% at best. You can see it in his play. His legs were a big part of his success at QB and he isn’t comfortable running yet this season. He’s very uncomfortable in the pocket with pressure, which is understandable, but that does not lead to success throwing the ball. He’s barely averaging 4.0 yards per pass attempt which means IU has become a dink and dunk offense. Their running game has been poor averaging 2.5 YPC vs Iowa and 3.6 YPC vs a bad Idaho team. That means in order to beat Cincy, most likely Penix will need a huge game and we just don’t see it. The Bearcats defensive front is every bit as good as Iowa’s who put constant pressure on Penix and held the Hoosiers to just 6 points. They bounced back after that loss and beat Idaho but not nearly as impressive as the score indicated. IU averaged just 4.8 YPP vs the Vandals and had 2 special teams TD’s in the game. Cincy was one of the best teams in the nation last year going 9-1 with their only loss coming by 3-points vs Georgia in the Peach Bowl. They return many key players from a great defense that allowed 16 PPG and just 4.6 YPP. They also bring back one of the better QB’s in the country as Desmond Ridder threw for 2,300 yards, 19 TD’s and rushed for almost 800 more. The Bearcats have won their first two games by a combined score of 91-21. That includes a 49-14 win over Miami Oh in week one and the Redhawks turned around and nearly won at Minnesota the following week showing how impressive that Cincinnati win was. We’re laying points on the road here but Cincinnati is the much better overall team at this time. Once Penix gets back to 100%, the Hoosiers will be much better but he’s nowhere near that right now. Lay it. |
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09-17-21 | Maryland v. Illinois OVER 60.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -114 | 55 h 48 m | Show |
#107/108 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 60.5 Points – Maryland vs Illinois, Friday at 9 PM ET - This total opened at just 58.5 which was way too low in our opinion and it has since jumped up to 60.5. Our power rated total for this one is set at 64 to still value on the OVER in our opinion. The Maryland offense has been great thus far putting up 92 points in 2 games to go along with almost 1,100 yards on 6.6 YPP. One of those games was vs a very good West Virginia defense that ranked 5th in college football in total defense last season. The Terps lit them up for 30 points on 496 total yards. They actually should have scored more than 30 points as Maryland missed a FG, was shut out on downs in WVU territory, and ended the game on the WVU 13-yard line running out the clock. The Terps are averaging 82 plays per game as their fast paced offense is clicking right now to say the least. The Illini pass defense has been terrible so this is a bad match up. Maryland QB Tagovailoa has already thrown for over 600 yards, completed 76% of his passes, and 6 TD’s. Not to mention he’s a running threat as well. The Illini pass defense has allowed their last 2 opponents starting QB’s (UTSA & UVA) complete 46 of their 68 pass attempts (68%) for 685 yards and 6 TD’s. Getting no pressure up front hasn’t helped as Illinois has 1 sack in their last 2 games combined. They’ve allowed 37 & 42 points in those 2 games. Offensively the Illini get a big boost here with starting QB Peters back under center after missing most of the Nebraska game and each of the last 2 games. He gives them a much better passing attack and makes this team tougher to defend. The Illini scored 30 points in each of their first 2 games but just 14 last week @ UVA. They had many more opportunities to put points on the board throwing an interception in Virginia territory and getting shut out on downs twice on the Cavs side of the field. Illinois has been using a fast paced offense as well averaging 75 plays per game so both teams prefer up tempo. Maryland shut out an FCS team last week but in their lone FBS game they gave up 24 points to West Virginia and the game had 41 points at halftime (21-20 WVU lead). With perfect weather (temps in the 70’s and light winds at game time) and a lot of offensive snaps expected, we think this one is high scoring. The projected score based on the spread is Maryland 34 – Illinois 26. We like both teams to eclipse their projected point total and this one goes OVER. |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team OVER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 40.5 Points – NY Giants vs Washington, Thursday at 8 PM ET - This total opened 43 which is right where we had it and it has been pushed down to 40.5 so now we’ll jump on the OVER. While this has been a low scoring NFC East series, this total has been adjusted too low. With the total currently set at 40.5 points, this is the 2nd lowest total in the last 23 meetings between these 2 teams. We understand the move down as Washington QB Fitzpatrick was injured and back up Heinicke will be starting here. These teams scored 13 and 16 points last week as well which is the most recent thing bettors have seen. However, neither team was very good defensively last week and we expect both offenses to look much better in week 2. The Washington defense was touted as being one of the best in the NFL this year but they struggled allowing 424 yards to a Charger team that sat many of their starters during the pre-season including QB Herbert. LA scored 20 points but it should have been more as they settled for FG’s on 2 drives deep into Washington territory, Herbert fumbled through the endzone going in to score, and he threw an interception at the Washington 4-yard line. The NYG defense allowed a fairly pedestrian Denver offense (28th in scoring last year / 26th in YPP offense) to put up 27 points on 6.4 YPP. The NYG offense has a lot of weapons at RB & WR and we expect them to play much better this week with a game under their belts. Heinicke was OK last week coming into the game for an injured Fitzgerald but now with a full week of practice as the starter, we also expect Washington to play better on that side of the ball. Remember Heinicke did start last year’s playoff game and threw for over 300 yards and put up 23 points vs one of the best defenses in the league. The average points scored in an NFL game last year was 49.6 and this year after one week it’s 47.8. This one is a full TD+ below those numbers. We like both teams to get to at least 20 points here and that gets this one OVER the total. |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 46.5 | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 0 m | Show |
#479/480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46.5 Points – Chicago vs LA Rams, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - These 2 teams have met 3 times in the last 3 seasons and each game has been a grinder to say the least. All 3 have gone UNDER the total by a combined 56 points! The average total points scored in those 3 games has been just 26. That’s it. We don’t see anything changing this year. We look for Chicago’s offense to struggle vs a Ram defense that will be among the best in the NFL. LA allowed the fewest YPG last season (292) along with the lowest YPP mark (4.7). Chicago will be led at QB by Andy Dalton which doesn’t strike fear in any defense, especially one that sit a top the NFL. The Bears starting offense didn’t show us anything to be positive about in the pre-season. They were on the field for 8 total series, had only 4 first downs, 144 total yards and tallied just 6 points. The Bears will struggle on offense. Chicago’s strength is their defense as well. They have finished in the top 10 in total defense for 4 straight years. The Rams added QB Stafford but let’s not forget they finished 22nd last year in scoring (23 PPG) and 19th in YPP. While he might be an upgrade, we don’t expect this offense to elevate all the much is 2021. The Rams have hit the UNDER in 14 of their last 17 home games. They have also cashed the UNDER in 20 of the last 26 games they’ve been tabbed a favorite. The Bears are 13-5 to the UNDER their last 18 as a road dog. The history says low scoring and we agree. This one stays UNDER the total. |
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09-12-21 | Dolphins v. Patriots -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
#474 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Patriots will be one of the most improved teams in the NFL. It’s actually somewhat amazing they finished with a respectable 7-9 record as we’d argue the Covid situation affected this team more than any other. They had more opt outs on the season than every other team and a number of players that remained were hit hard including QB Newton who was never the same after contracted Covid. Newton is now gone and Belichick is going with rookie QB Jones from Alabama as the starter. It he simply manages the game and doesn’t make mistakes this team will be very solid. They spent more in free agency in the off season than any other team and they did so on very solid players as they always do. The New England defense will be one of the best in the NFL and facing a banged up Miami OLine. Fins starting LT Jackson is on the Covid list and may not play leaving a rookie or a lineman they signed 2 weeks ago as the starter. Pats are 8-1 ATS their last 9 at home vs Miami including 21-11 win here last year and outgained the Dolphins by 1.1 YPP in that game. New England was a 6.5 point favorite in that game and now they are laying 3 despite being vastly improved from a year ago. Miami, because they made the playoffs, we feel is a bit overvalued as they were outgained by 0.6 YPP by their opponents. Tua was a disaster last year (44.8 QBR – 26th in the NFL) and in his lone start vs Belichick’s depleted defense he threw for just 145 yards with 0 TD’s and 1 pick. We look for him to struggle again on Sunday. The host has covered 16 of the last 21 in this AFC East rivalry and we have the Patriots winning by more than a FG here. |
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09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
#377 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +7 over Michigan, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a pure value play on Washington. This line prior to last week’s games was Michigan -1 or -1.5. Now because Michigan beat Western Michigan handily and Washington was upset by an FCS team, this number moved through -3, -4, and -6 (three key numbers) and onto another key number -7. That’s simply too much of an overreaction after one week. Washington look poor last week no way around that. They turned the ball over 3 times and didn’t create a single turnover. The Huskies tallied just 291 total yards in their 13-7 loss vs Montana. UW had 11 more first downs, won the overall yardage & time of possession battle and the defense held the Grizzlies to 3.4 yards per play. They were flat and turnovers (-3) decided the game. We expect Washington to rally big time this week as they are now backed into a corner so to speak off that loss. The defense has a chance to be elite. Michigan ran the ball at will last week vs a small MAC defensive front but that won’t happen this week. Wolverine starting QB McNamara only completed 9 passes and didn’t have to do much to get this win. He’s still fairly inexperienced and will have to do much more here to get this win vs a big step up in competition. That was made much more difficult with Michigan WR Bell (top offensive player on the team) was injured last week and is now out for the season. The Wolverine defense was OK last week but WMU did get into Michigan territory 6 times and came away with only 14 points. Washington has not been an underdog of 7 or more points since 2016. This team had an energetic week of practice after their upset loss and they will be ready here. This one will be close. Take the points. |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs -8 | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 4 m | Show |
#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -8 over Dallas, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - This spread opened -6.5 over the summer and has pushed through the key number of -7 with no buyback whatsoever. That speaks volumes. Our power rating on this is closer to -10 so we still think there is value with the Bucs. We expect Dallas to start the season slow on both sides of the ball. Offensively QB Prescott will be taking his first live snaps in almost a year as he was injured last October and hasn’t played since. Defensively the Cowboys were poor last year ranking 23rd in both YPG & YPP allowed. Now they are learning a different system under new DC Quinn and it will take them some time to get acclimated. Tampa is the opposite. They return all 22 starters which is extremely rare in the NFL and we look for them to be clicking on all cylinders right away. Last season the Bucs had to find their way so to speak with new QB Brady but they improved greatly as the season went on. Tampa scored 25 or more points in just 6 of their first 12 games and then put up 26+ in their final 8 games averaging 34 PPG during that stretch (including playoffs). WR Mike Evans was recently quoted as saying the TB offense is “miles” ahead of where it was last year at this time. We expect the Bucs defense to be one of the tops in the league again in 2021. They were #1 vs the run last year allowing just 81 YPG. They should be able to take away the Dallas rushing attack with the Cowboys top run blocker and top overall OL Martin out for this one due to Covid. That means Prescott will need a huge game in order for the Boys to stay in this one and we just don’t see that happening. Too much time away from full speed action for him just to turn it on and be at the top of his game. He hasn’t been able to work with his receivers vs real defensive bullets and his top WR Lamb has been out for a few weeks with Covid and just returned. Tampa wins this one by double digits. |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State OVER 55.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 35 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* OVER 55.5 Notre Dame @ Florida State, Sunday - Florida State 17 starters back, 10 on offense, 7 on defense. Notre Dame just 9 starters back, 3 on offense, 6 on defense but the Irish did land a solid QB transfer in Jack Coan from Wisconsin. Coan threw for over 2700 yards with 18 TD’s and 5 INT’s in 2019. Notre Dame has a rebuilt O-line BUT they bring back RB Williams who rushed for over 1100 yards a year ago. FSU is in year two of Mike Norvell’s rebuild and coming off a 3-6 SU season. Norvell brought his high-octane offense from Memphis so we know the Noles will want to play fast. They were 21st in plays run per game last season. The QB situation is up in the air with returner Jordan Travis or UCF transfer McKenzie Milton, but both have been solid this spring. The Irish beat FSU last year 42-26 which went well over the total of 53.5. Notre Dame gouged the Noles with 353 rushing yards and over 554 total yards. Florida States defense was one of the worst in the ACC last year and overall as they gave up over 37PPG which ranked 111th. Against quality teams such as ND the Noles gave up 52 to Miami, 42 ND, 28 UNC, 48 Louisville, 41 to Pitt and 38 to NC State. In last year’s meeting with the Golden Domers the Seminoles did put up over 400 yards of offense so we know they’re capable of trading point here. FSU closed the year on a 6-2 Over run which continues into this season. Notre Dame had 6 straight games of 31+ points to end the season before they ran into a pair of the best defenses in college football last season in Clemson and Alabama. Big rebound here in their season opener for the Irish offense. BET OVER! |
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09-04-21 | Utah State +17 v. Washington State | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State +17 over Washington State, Saturday at 11 PM ET - We expect USU to be drastically improved this year. This team was a train wreck last year and it was mainly due their leadership at the top. Former HC Gary Andersen was terrible. He quit at Wisconsin to take the Oregon State job. He then quit partway through the season on OSU and ended up back at Utah State where he was before he took the Badger job. USU was a rudderless ship last year and the players tanked the season to say the least. The players were so distraught they opted to not even play their final game of the season. They have since hired former Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson who was extremely successfully at ASU with a 51-37 record including 6 bowl appearances. He brought a few players with him from Arkie State including his starting QB Bonner who along with last year’s USU starter Peasley gives the Aggies a decent QB room. Word from Logan, Utah is the players love their new coach and have an entirely different attitude entering this season. They are experienced with 19 starters back and Anderson brought in a number of key Power 5 transfers from programs like Michigan, Texas, Georgia Tech, and Kansas who will contribute. This is a play against WSU as well. It’s really tough to lay 17 points with a defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone over the last few seasons. The Cougs allowed 38 PPG last season (1-3 overall record) and 32 PPG in 2019. They allowed 450+ YPG in both of those seasons. 2nd year head coach Rolovich came from Hawaii and he likes to run an up tempo offense trying to outscore opponents but last year they averaged just 27 PPG. Utah State should be able to put points on the board in this game and Washington State will have a tough time running away with this. Take the big points with USU. |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 63 h 36 m | Show |
#153 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State +3.5 over Northwestern, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - Our power ratings have MSU as a small favorite in this game so we feel the value is on Sparty. They had a rough season last year with a 2-5 record, however it was their first year under new HC Tucker and we expect some solid improvement with a full year in both the offensive and defensive system. They return almost all of their key offensive players including an OLine that has combined to make 147 career starts which is the 4th most nationally. MSU upgrades at QB where they struggled greatly last year by adding Temple transfer Anthony Russo who had over 6,000 yards passing and 44 TD’s in his Temple career. The Spartans running game was poor last year but that should also improve greatly with a steady offensive line and Wake Forest transfer Walker starting at RB. Northwestern lost as much experience as any team in the country. They surprised many by winning the Big 10 West last year but bring back only 8 starters. The Cats lost their starting QB, most of their offensive line, and their top 4 pass catchers. Defensively they lost many of their key contributors including their top corner (to the NFL), top 2 pass rushers, and top 2 LB’s. Hunter Johnson was named the starting QB of the inexperienced offense and that’s not a good thing for NW. He was handed the job in 2019 and proceeded to complete just 46% of his passes, threw just 1 TD, and led an offense that averaged 14 PPG in his 6 starts. Their only win with Johnson at the helm was vs UNLV and he battled again for the job last year and did not play a single down during the season. Now he’s back as the starter. Not good. MSU had a down year in 2020, while NW won the Big 10 West yet in their only meeting a season ago the Spartans topped the Cats 29-20. It wasn’t a fluke as MSU outgained Northwestern by almost 100 yards and dominated in the trenches with 195 yards rushing while holding the Cats to 63. Now we expect a big improvement from Michigan State while Northwestern takes a big step back. No reason to believe MSU won’t win again this year taking that into consideration. NW has very little home field advantage with a 9-9 SU record here the last 3 season (very few fans, small stadium that is often overrun by opposing fans). Take the points with Michigan State |
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09-02-21 | South Florida v. NC State -18 | Top | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
#142 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State -18 over South Florida, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We like NC State to be a surprise team in the ACC. We rate them as the 2nd best team in the Atlantic Division behind Clemson. The Wolfpack are coming off an 8-4 season and 2 of those losses were by 3 points or less. They are one of the more experienced teams in the nation with 20 starters returning. Not only that, they have 28 players we’d consider “starters” due to the number of minutes they’ve played even when not starting. Their QB Leary played last year but was banged up for much of the season and he is back healthy. They have a solid and experienced offensive line, they bring back all of their top RB’s and WR’s and their defense returns it’s top 12 tacklers from last year. USF is in rebuilding mode in HC Jeff Scott’s 2nd year. The Bulls were decimated by Covid last year (as many teams were) and finished 1-8 with their only win coming vs the Citadel. 5 of their 8 losses came by at least 20 points. Since the start of the 2019 season this team has won only 5 games and 2 of those 5 wins were vs non FBS opponents (the Citadel & South Carolina St). They have a new starting QB Fortin who threw only 8 passes in last year’s injury riddled season. The offense topped 4.5 yards per play only 3 times in 8 games vs FBS teams last year and breaking in a new QB they will probably struggle early in the year. The Bulls defense was poor last year to say the least allowing 40 PPG on 441 YPG including getting whipped up front giving up 212 YPG rushing. They put zero pressure on the opposing QB netting just 7 sacks the entire season – only Navy & Arizona had fewer. USF has played 3 Power 5 teams the last 2 seasons (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, & Georgia Tech) and they’ve lose those games by an average score of 38-3. This is a bad first match up for this team and we expect a 20+ point win for NC State. |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 510 h 30 m | Show |
#300 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +7 over Nebraska, Saturday, August 28th at 12:00 PM ET - There is always a lot of optimism in Huskerland entering every season, however the results have not matched the “fan” expectations. This team is favored by a full TD, on the road in their Big 10 opener yet they are just 9-17 SU overall in conference play under head coach Scott Frost. They have won just 4 conference games by more than 7 points in the last 3 years. We believe they are overvalued entering the season (as per usual) and their opponent in game 1 we feel is a bit undervalued right now. The Illini had a rough 2-6 season last year but they were decimated at QB pushing all the way down to their 4th stringer due to injury/illness. This year they expect senior Brandon Peters, former Michigan starter, to have a big season and we agree. He’s operating behind a very solid, veteran offensive line that could turn out to be one of the better units in the conference. The defense returns 16 of their top 18 tacklers and new head coach Bret Bielema knows defense and likes what he sees on that side of the ball. Up front they should be vastly improved defensively with their entire DLine coming back, all upperclassmen, and a few key LB’s back in the line up that were injured last season. They should be able to limit a Nebraska running game that relies too heavily on QB Martinez (leading rusher last year). The Huskers don’t have a single RB returning that rushed from more than 75 yards the entire 2020 season. That means Nebraska may have to have a big day through the air to win this one and we simply don’t trust QB Adrian Martinez who finished 12th in the Big 10 averaging only 150 YPG passing last year. Despite their struggles last season, the Illini were able to waltz into Lincoln and whip the Huskers 41-23 on nearly 500 yards of total offense. The year before Nebraska went to Illinois and barely escaped with a 42-38 win. We expect Illinois to have a solid shot at winning this game at home and getting a TD is generous. Bielema and his new staff have pretty much given the fans and media no access to practices so Nebraska will be guessing a bit when it comes to what Illinois will be doing on both sides of the ball here. Take the points. |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 56 | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -100 | 60 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 56 Points – Kansas City vs Tampa Bay, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - These two teams met in the regular season here in Tampa and the total was the exact same number (56). The game went Under with KC winning 27-24. We can take a few situations from that game to project why we feel this game has a decent shot of going Over this time around. In that game the two teams combined for almost 1,000 yards which would normally equate to 67 total points based on the NFL average of 15 yards per point. So by scoring just 51 in the first game, the two teams averaged 19.6 yards per point which less efficient than the worst team in the NFL in that category, the Jets who averaged 18.4 yards per point. During the regular season, TB was #2 in the NFL in yards per point at 12.5 and KC was 12th at 14.1 so both drastically underperformed in their only meeting this year. Both teams averaged 7.5 yards per play or better in that game which only happened one other time this season. If we look at the games where both teams averaged at least 7.5 per play it’s happened 18 times since 2000 and those games had an average of 73 points scored. Not saying both teams will average those numbers again here, but they have shown they can do just that. Both teams had missed opportunities galore in that game. There were 3 turnovers inside their opponents 15 yard line and only 1 TD was scored in 5 red zone opportunities. That was an anomaly as both of these teams are very efficient in the red zone ranking 11th and 12th in red zone TD’s scored percentage. On top of that, neither defense has been good at stopping teams from scoring TD’s in the red zone with KC ranking dead last in the NFL (74% of opponents trips to the red zone ended in TD’s) and TB ranking 19th in that category (62% of opponents trips to the red zone ended in TD’s). That first meeting was very pass heavy with 91 pass attempts and just 33 rush attempts and we expect similar numbers here which would favor the Over. These two teams both average right around 30 PPG (KC at 29.6 & TB at 30.7) peaking right now. Tampa’s offense has scored at least 30 points in 6 straight games while KC’s offense put up 38 last week vs Buffalo and had 19 at half vs Cleveland a week earlier before Mahomes was injured in the 3rd and didn’t play the remainder of the game. One thing we will keep an eye on here is the weather. We are releasing this pick on Thursday and the current forecast in Tampa calls for potential rain, but light winds which is key. We think both teams have a solid shot to reach the 30’s here and we’ll grab the OVER. |
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ASA Football Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-21-21 | Wyoming v. Kent State OVER 59 | Top | 52-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
12-20-21 | Tulsa v. Old Dominion +9.5 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
12-19-21 | Falcons v. 49ers -9 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts OVER 45.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
12-18-21 | Oregon State -7 v. Utah State | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina -10.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-41 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans UNDER 41 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
12-11-21 | Navy +7.5 v. Army | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 35 h 27 m | Show |
12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
12-05-21 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
12-05-21 | Chargers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 52.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
12-03-21 | Western Kentucky v. UTSA OVER 72.5 | Top | 41-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints +5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team +1 | Top | 15-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
11-28-21 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 48.5 | Top | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
11-28-21 | Eagles -3.5 v. Giants | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
11-27-21 | UTSA v. North Texas +10.5 | Top | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
11-27-21 | Army v. Liberty UNDER 53.5 | Top | 31-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
11-26-21 | TCU v. Iowa State -14.5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints UNDER 45.5 | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
11-21-21 | Cowboys +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 9-19 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii +2.5 | Top | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 37 h 27 m | Show |
11-20-21 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss UNDER 65 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7.5 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -135 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
11-16-21 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan OVER 66 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
11-13-21 | South Carolina v. Missouri OVER 54.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
11-13-21 | Minnesota +4.5 v. Iowa | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
11-12-21 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
11-10-21 | Toledo v. Bowling Green UNDER 50 | Top | 49-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers UNDER 40 | Top | 27-29 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
11-07-21 | Chargers v. Eagles OVER 49.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 21 m | Show |
11-07-21 | Vikings +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 45 h 48 m | Show |
11-06-21 | Navy +21 v. Notre Dame | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
11-06-21 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State OVER 68 | Top | 48-14 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs OVER 52 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -114 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
10-30-21 | Ole Miss v. Auburn -2.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
10-30-21 | Georgia v. Florida UNDER 51 | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks +4 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
10-24-21 | Bears v. Bucs -11.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
10-24-21 | Washington Football Team v. Packers OVER 47.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
10-23-21 | UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 45-16 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
10-22-21 | Colorado State v. Utah State OVER 58 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +5.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -3 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 70 h 5 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Chiefs v. Washington Football Team OVER 54 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
10-16-21 | Nebraska -3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
10-15-21 | Marshall v. North Texas UNDER 67 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 51.5 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 56 m | Show |
10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
10-10-21 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 52 | Top | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
10-09-21 | Michigan v. Nebraska UNDER 50 | Top | 32-29 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
10-09-21 | San Jose State v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 14-32 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
10-08-21 | Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 17 m | Show |
10-07-21 | Rams -2 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 56 h 46 m | Show |
10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Seahawks +2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Panthers v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
10-02-21 | Kansas v. Iowa State OVER 56.5 | Top | 7-59 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
10-02-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
10-01-21 | Houston v. Tulsa -4.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 54 m | Show |
09-30-21 | Jaguars v. Bengals UNDER 46 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings +2 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
09-25-21 | Rutgers v. Michigan UNDER 50.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
09-25-21 | UTSA +3.5 v. Memphis | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | Top | 37-17 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
09-18-21 | Kent State v. Iowa UNDER 56.5 | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
09-18-21 | Cincinnati -3.5 v. Indiana | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
09-17-21 | Maryland v. Illinois OVER 60.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -114 | 55 h 48 m | Show |
09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team OVER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 46.5 | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 0 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Dolphins v. Patriots -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs -8 | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 4 m | Show |
09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State OVER 55.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 35 h 56 m | Show |
09-04-21 | Utah State +17 v. Washington State | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
09-03-21 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 63 h 36 m | Show |
09-02-21 | South Florida v. NC State -18 | Top | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 510 h 30 m | Show |
02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 56 | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -100 | 60 h 50 m | Show |