ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The underdog is the way to go in this one as these two teams are very even and many aspects with the Bulls at 25-27 SU and the Magic at 28-24. Chicago is slightly better when it comes to offensive efficiency ratings at 1.137-points per possession compared to the Magic who average 1.129PPP. Defensively the Magic have the advantage allowing 1.119PPP compared to the Bulls giving up 1.153PPP. The two meetings between these two teams this season were close with the Magic winning by 6 and 2-points in the two meetings. In fact, the Underdog has cashed in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two Eastern Conference foes. The big edge we see the Bulls have in this matchup is the fact that they don’t turn it over like Orlando does. The Bulls average the 4th fewest TO’s per game, the Magic turn it over 14.4 times per game which is 23rd worst. Orlando has been a great favorite this year but the oddsmakers are starting to adjust their pricing on the Magic, giving us some added value here. Chicago has won 3 straight road games and are more than capable of hanging with the young Magic on their home court.

#707 ASA TOP PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This OSU team has to be completely demoralized at this point. Not only have they lost 8 of their last 9 games, they just blew an 18 point 2nd half lead at home on Tuesday night and lost to Indiana 76-73. That was only the 2nd road win this season for the Hoosiers. Blowing a huge lead like that we just can’t imagine this plummeting OSU team is in the right frame of mind right now. One telling statistic in regards to the Buckeyes is the fact they are 3-9 on Big 10 play (last place) despite playing the easiest conference schedule per KenPom. That speaks volumes. Maryland is coming of 2 straight losses vs Michigan State and Rutgers but this team is improving. They’ve also proven they can win on the road already beating Illinois, UCLA, and Iowa away from home this season. We’re getting a massive defensive edge in this game by siding with Maryland. They rank #1 in the Big 10 (conference games) in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and scoring allowing only 63 PPG. Compare that to the Buckeyes who are dead last in the conference in defensive efficiency, dead last in 3 point FG% allowed, and 12th in eFG% allowed while giving up 77 PPG in league play. The Terps offensive numbers are nothing to write home about but they are facing one of the worst defenses in the Big 10. The Bucks aren’t great offensively either ranking just 8th in the conference in offensive efficiency and 12th in eFG% but facing a high level defense. We don’t expect them to do much at all vs this Maryland defense. OSU is just 1-6 ATS as a favorite this season in Big 10 play and they’ve won only 3 of those games outright. We like Maryland here.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -5 vs Detroit Pistons, 10 PM ET - The Blazers find themselves in unfamiliar territory here as a favorite for only the 5th time this season. If we go back to the start of last season, they are 14-13 ATS as a home chalk with an average +/- of plus 4.6PPG. Portland is playing well right now with a 2-3 SU record in their last five games and two of those wins were against the Bucks and 76ers. Two of the losses were close games in Denver which speaks volumes of how much better this team is right now. Proving our point is their adjusted net ratings. On the season the Blazer ANR is -8.2, but in their last five games they are a positive +0.8. Detroit is 6-43 SU on the season with the worst road record in the league at 2-20 SU. They have one of the worst road differentials at minus -11.5PPG. Granted, the Pistons have covered 8 of their last ten games but only two of those games were away from home. Detroit has an adjusted net rating of -.9.5 for the season and -5.4 in their last five games. Portland has struggled offensively at times, but they should find plenty of open looks against this Pistons D that is 29th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.215-points per possession. We will lay the points with Portland.

#836 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB +6 over Florida Atlantic, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We feel FAU has been overvalued this season after their performance last year which took them to the Final 4. We feel they are especially vulnerable on the road where they have a winning record this year but barely at 3-2 SU (1-4 ATS). You read that correctly, the Owls have played only 5 true road games this year out of their 22 total games. The Blazers are playing their best basketball right now and they are a very dangerous team at home, especially as an underdog as they are 8-1 ATS when getting points this season. They struggled a bit early and lost 3 home games prior to December 2nd, but they’ve since won 7 in a row at home and they are 53-9 SU here since the start of the 2020 season. Even last year when FAU was Final 4 caliber, they lost by 9 when they traveled to UAB and in fact they’ve never won at Bartow Arena (0-7 SU). The Blazers are coming off a 3 point loss @ SMU, the 2nd highest rated team in the AAC. They blew a 12 point lead with under 10 minutes to play in the game in that loss. That was 1 of only 3 losses for UAB since mid December (10-3 SU record) and the others were both on the road as well @ Charlotte and @ FAU, tonight’s opponent. In that first meeting back in mid January, FAU hit 49% of their shots while the Blazers made only 39% and just 19% from 3 (5 of 26). UAB is 6-3 in conference play despite playing the 2nd most difficult schedule in AAC play having already faced all 4 league teams ranked in the top 100 nationally (UAB has 2-2 record in those games). This will be their 4th straight games vs those top 4 AAC teams and in their previous 3 they beat Memphis and North Texas and took SMU to the wire as we mentioned. We give the Blazers a great shot to win here and if it’s tight as we expect we get some extra cushion with the points.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +6.5 at LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the red hot Clippers who have just played 7 straight games on the East Coast and only had 1 day off prior to this contest. New Orleans has won 3 straight games, the most recent was a 38-point blowout of the Raptors in which their starters played very few minutes. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season between these two teams with the road team winning both. The most recent clash was on January 5th in New Orleans which resulted in a Clippers 111-95 victory. The Pelicans had a horrendous night shooting by making 33/92 FG attempts or 36%. New Orleans is the 9th best shooting team in the league at 48.7% overall and own the 7th best 3PT%. These two teams have many similar statistics as the Clippers shoot 49.6% or 5th best and have the best overall 3PT% in the NBA. When it comes to defense the Pelicans rank 9th in defensive efficiency, the Clippers are 10th. The Pels hold opponents to 46.4% shooting, the Clippers give up 46.4%. The Clippers have 5 more wins on the season than the Pelicans, but these two teams are very even numbers wise. Given the travel circumstances, we won’t be surprised if New Orleans pulls the upset. Grab the points!

#700 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana Tech -9.5 over Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - La Tech is by far the best team in CUSA (ranked 66th nationally – the only team in CUSA in the top 100) and they’ve been simply destroying teams at home. They are a perfect 11-0 SU at home winning by an average margin of +22 points and they’ve held their opponents to an average of only 58 PPG at home. The Bulldogs are in the top 10 nationally in both FG% allowed (38%) and PPG allowed (62 PPG). They have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to less than 60 points. This will be easily the best defense Western Kentucky has faced this season. The Hilltoppers have an offensive efficiency rating of 225th in the nation, yet they’ve only faced ONE defense prior to tonight that ranks in the top 100 in defensive efficiency. They are the fastest paced team in the country per KenPom and they average 78 possessions per game, 2nd in the nation. The problem with that is, they are playing a much better team on the road and that allowed La Tech to have a number of extra offensive possessions as well. In a game where you are a heavy underdog, you don’t want to give the favorite more opportunities to pull away. There are only 2 other teams in CUSA ranked in the top 100 in tempo and the Bulldogs beat those teams by 40 & 14 points. On top of that, Western has been a poor road team not winning a single away game in conference play (0-3 SU). The Topper prefer to play inside the arc with 57% of their points coming for 2 point land (29th most nationally). The problem here is, Louisiana Tech limits their opponents to 2 point FG% of just 42% which is the best mark in the entire country. This will be WKY’s 3rd game in 7 days while LT has had a full week off to get ready and rest for this game. La Tech wins this one by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks +3.5 or +4 at Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The Bucks have been on the road since Jan 29th and are playing with a day off after a loss in Utah. Phoenix meanwhile is returning home for their first game after a long 7-game road trip, and we like to fade teams in this situation. Prior to the extended road trip, the Suns had won two straight at home over Chicago and Indiana, but both were close and decided by 2 and 7-points. The Bucks are 1-3 SU on this trip and after that embarrassing loss in Utah we like them to bounce back here. Milwaukee sat Khris Middleton as a precaution in their last game, but he’s expected back for this game. The Bucks have an offensive efficiency advantage as they average 1.208 points per possession compared to the Suns who average 1.188PPP. Defensively the Suns have a slight edge allowing 1.160PPP compared to the Buck who give up 1.172PPP. Milwaukee has an edge when it comes to 3-point shooting though as they rank 7th best in 3PT% and the Suns rank 4th. But the Bucks defend the Arc much better, holding opponents to the 6th lowest 3PT% in the league at 35.1% compared to a Phoenix team that ranks 17th in 3PT% D. Milwaukee has won 3 straight in the series and 7 of the last eight. We expect that trend to continue and will ride the Bucks here plus the points.

#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma +1 over BYU, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - This line opened with BYU as a 1 point favorite and our power ratings have Oklahoma favored so we’ll grab the Sooners at home. OU started the season winning 15 of their first 18 games and now they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 which is why we are getting some value here. This is the first time this season that the Sooners have been a home dog (again if the opener holds as BYU favored). They’ve already been favored at home over Iowa State, Texas, Texas Tech, among others. They are catching BYU playing their 2nd of back to back road games after the Cougars won @ WVU (worst team in the Big 12) on Saturday. That improved BYU’s record in true road games to just 2-3 on the year but those 2 wins came against WVU (as we mentioned) and UCF, 2 of the 4 Big 12 teams ranked outside the top 65 nationally. Oklahoma will be the 2nd highest rated team (per KenPom) that BYU has faced on the road this year, 2nd only to Baylor who topped the Cougs by 9 points. They were 4.5 point dogs in that road game and now favored vs a OU team that sits only 8 spots lower than Baylor in the KenPom ratings. Tough travel for BYU here having traveled from the west coast to the east coast to take on WVU and now they go straight to the south for a game only a few days later. They might be without starting big man Khalifa, who has an illness & a minor injury and is not currently in Oklahoma with the team. BYU relies as heavily as any team in the country on the 3 point shot (2nd most attempts in the nation) and they are facing an Oklahoma defense that ranks 5th in the nation allowing just 28% from deep while allowing just 63 PPG at home. This is a must win, get right spot for OU at home and we like them to win this one.

ASA top play on Cleveland Cavaliers -5 vs Sacramento Kings, 7 PM ET - We missed our last bet against the Kings but will double down with the Cavs here. Scheduling certainly favors the Cavs in this matchup as the Kings are playing their 7th straight road game in 12 days. Sacramento jumped out to a big lead against the Bulls the other night, but the fatigue factor showed late in the game. The Bulls came all the way back from down 30 in the 3rd quarter to down 3-points late in the game. The Cavs have been off for a few days and have been playing well the past few weeks with 5-straight wins and 9 of their last ten. Cleveland have won 7 straight home games and all but one have come by 5 or more points. The Cavs don’t have a great overall home record at 17-8 SU but do own an average +/- of +5PPG. Sacramento is 15-11 SU away from home this season with an average differential of +1.6PPG. Cleveland owns the 4th best FG% defense in the NBA allowing 45.5% shooting to opponents. They also defend the 3-point line well, ranking 8th best in foes 3PT% against. The Kings on the other hand have struggled on the defensive end of the court allowing teams to shoot 48.4% which is 21st worst in the league. They don’t defend the 3PT line either, ranking 29th in that defensive category. The Cavs lost at Sacramento earlier this season but this is a shot at revenge and they make the most of this favorable spot! Cleveland delivers the revenge payback! Lay the points.

#858 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -9.5 over Nebraska, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The Huskers are coming off a massive, energy draining home win over then #6 Wisconsin. It took a huge comeback from Nebraska to pick up that OT win as they trailed at one point by 19 points and were down 16 at halftime. That was on Thursday night not giving them much time to recoup and re-energize for this road game. Illinois, on the other hand, won by double digits @ Ohio State on Tuesday so they’ve had 2 extra days to rest and prepare. The Huskers have been fantastic at home beating the likes of Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan State. However, when they’ve taken to the road, they’ve been terrible. They are 0-5 SU & ATS on the road in Big 10 play with every loss but 1 (vs Rutgers) coming by double digits. Their average margin of defeat on the road in conference play is 14.5 points and now they face one of the top few teams in the league and we expect another double digit loss. The Illini are back at full strength with leading scorer Shannon (20 PPG) back in the lineup after missing 6 straight games in January. Since his return they are 3-1 with their only loss coming in OT @ Northwestern. Illinois sits in 3rd place behind Purdue & Wisconsin and those 2 meet today so a chance for U of I to gain ground on one of those 2 teams with a win here. The Huskers live and die by the 3 taking more shots from beyond the arc than anyone else in the Big 10. This will be a tough task for them as they don’t shoot it as well on the road and they are facing an Illinois defense that allows just 31% from deep overall and just 27% at home. Watch the Huskers run out of gas in the 2nd half and Illinois pulls away for a big win.

#846 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Furman -3.5 over UNC Greensboro, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Furman remains undervalued right now in our opinion. This team won the SoCon last year and returned most of their key contributors that beat Virginia in the NCAA tourney last year before losing to San Diego State who went on to play in the National Championship game. The problem this year with the Paladins is they have rarely had everyone available with a multitude of injuries creating problems with continuity. That includes their top 3 scorers all missing time this season, including top scorer Foster (19 PPG) who recently returned after a 9 game absence. This team was 28-8 last season and they are sitting at 12-10 right now, however they are healthy with everyone on board and have been for a few weeks now. That’s why they are on a current 6-1 run which started in early January. During that stretch they’ve faced the 2 highest rated teams in the SoCon (per KenPom), Samford and Western Carolina, and beat both of them. Greensboro sits in 2nd place in the conference one game behind Samford and with a win here, Furman can move into a tie for 2nd place. UNCG is 7-2 but they’ve played the easiest schedule in league play. These 2 met back in December and UNCG won by 9 but Furman, as we mentioned their injuries, played that game without their top 3 scorers (Foster, Williams, and Pegues) who are all back and healthy now. They are undefeated at home in conference play despite their injury issues, and the Paladins have won 15 of their last 16 games here at Timmons Arena. Last year they were favored by 6 at home vs UNCG and now only laying 3.5 with basically the same team. We’ll call for Furman to win and cover this small number.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - There is something going on with this spread and looks to us as if the Oddsmakers are begging you to take the Mavericks at home plus the points. With more tickets and money being placed on the Mavs the line should not be going up in favor of Milwaukee. The Bucks are coming off two straight losses in new head coach Doc Rivers coaching debuts but have now had time to acclimate to his new systems. This Bucks team is one of the five best teams in the NBA, and they have lost 3-games in a row just two times in the past three regular seasons. Dallas is coming off a horrible showing in Minnesota in their last game which resulted in a 87-121 blowout loss. Dallas played without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in that game but should have Doncic back here. The Mavs have lost three straight at home as Underdogs to the Kings, Suns and Celtics with all three losses coming by 5 or more points. Milwaukee has the better offensive efficiency numbers and better defensive efficiency numbers despite it being a down year for them on the defensive end of the court. Milwaukee has won and covered 3 straight against Dallas and 4 of the last five. Lay the points with the Bucks.

#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -2.5 over Florida, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Great situation spot here for the Aggies. They are coming off a home loss vs Ole Miss 71-68 as an 8 point favorite last Saturday and they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this one. They are facing the Gators who’ve been a bit lucky winning back to back games in OT including @ Kentucky on Wednesday evening. In their win over UK the Gators hit a 3 pointer as time expired to send the game to OT and won 94-91 in the extra session. The Wildcats were undermanned in that loss as they played without 2 starters (Edwards & Wagner) who combine to average over 20 PPG. Now after that huge road win Florida is on the road again only a few days later and they have a huge home game with Auburn next. That was just the 2nd road win this year for Florida (2-3 record) and just their 2nd road win vs a top 100 team since the start of last season. In their 5 road games, Florida is shooting just 39% on offense and their defense has allowed 86 PPG in those games. A&M is 12-8 on the year but half of their losses have come by 6 points or fewer including taking Houston (#1 KenPom team) to the wire on the road before losing by 4. Coming off a home loss, the Aggies are now in a must win spot at home with 3 of their next 4 games on the road. They’ve won 25 of their last 29 home games. A&M was just an 8 point favorite here vs an Ole Miss team that has an 18-3 record. They were -3 here vs Kentucky a few weeks ago (a 5 point A&M win) who is rated 10 spots higher than Florida. This line is off (opened -1.5). Should be higher so we’re catching some solid value with a desperate home team.

#668 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -4.5 over Utah State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This has been a good situation for us this year taking an unranked home team as a favorite vs a rated road team. The fact is, ranked teams on the road have been a big time money burner this season with a 58-80 ATS record. USU steps into this game with a 19-2 overall record and ranked #17 in the polls yet they are a fairly significant underdog here (SDSU opened -5). That in and of itself speaks volumes. The Aztecs are 16-5 on the year and they’ve played the much tougher overall schedule (11th SOS nationally). KenPom actually has San Diego State rated higher than Utah State despite the records and we agree with that assessment. All 5 of the Aztecs losses have come on the road vs teams currently ranked in the top 65. Their most recent game was a 79-71 loss @ Colorado State (we were on CSU) on Tuesday night. Now they have a chance to bounce back at home where they are pretty much unbeatable with a 10-0 record this year and a 48-2 record their last 50 at home. SDSU has responded nicely with wins after each of their losses this season including 4 of those 5 wins coming by double digits. All 10 of the Aztecs home wins this year have come by double digits with an average final score of 77-59. They rank #1 in the Mountain West in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. This is a must win for them as they sit at 5-3 in league play and Utah State is 7-1. SDSU cannot drop another game behind the conference leader. The Aggies are 3-1 in conference road games but they’ve been shaky away from home despite that record. Their lone easy win away from home was @ Air Force, by far the worst team in the conference. Their other road games were a 13 points loss @ New Mexico, a 1 point win @ UNLV in a game they trailed throughout and never led by more than 1 point, and an OT win @ Boise, again come from behind late to force OT. Their efficiency numbers on both ends of the court drop off quite a bit on the road. Since joining the MWC back in 2014, Utah State has faced San Diego State on the road 8 times. They are 0-8 SU in those games with 7 of the losses coming by at least 10 points. We like SDSU at home on Saturday.

#608 ASA PLAY ON 8* St John’s +3.5 over UConn, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We faded St John’s earlier this week @ Xavier and picked up a winner as they lost by 11. That was a perfect spot to go against the Johnnies who haven’t been great no the road and were playing a Xavier team that was blasted by UConn in their previous game so the Musketeers came out with a purpose and picked up a home win. Now we’re getting STJ at home off a loss against a Husky team that is at the top of their market right now. Connecticut has won 9 straight games since losing @ Seton Hall back on December 20th and we think this number is a bit inflated because of that. The Huskies have been dominant at home for the most part but they’ve had some very close calls on the road beating Butler by 7, Xavier by 5, and Villanova by 1 along with their 15 points loss @ Seton Hall in Big East play. The Johnnies will be the highest rated conference foe (per KenPom) that UConn has played on the road this season. The Huskies may also be without a key player (Alex Karaban) who is not 100%. St John’s is 4-1 at home in Big East play with their only loss coming by 1 point vs Marquette in a game STJ was without one of their key players Jordan Dingle. These 2 already faced off @ Connecticut and the Red Storm gave the Huskies everything they could handle in a 69-65 loss. That was despite STJ shooting only 38% and making only 4 of 18 three point shots. The Johnnies are 5-5 in league play but they’ve played the toughest schedule in the conference already facing the top 3 teams, UConn, Marquette, and Creighton, all down to the wire games losing by 4, 1, and 1 respectively. STJ is much improved this year (4th rated team in the Big East) and they gave UConn fits last year splitting with the eventual National Champions. We expect this to go to the wire so take the points with St John’s.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -11.5 vs. Portland Trailblazers, 10 PM ET - We typically don’t lay big numbers in the NBA, but we will make an exception tonight with Denver. The Nuggets sat All-Star/MVP Jokic in their last game, a loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he’s expected back tonight. The Blazers are coming off a huge upset over the Bucks the other night in Dame Lillards return to Portland and we expect them to letdown tonight. Portland has one of the worst road records in the NBA dating back to last season at 22-44 SU with an average differential of minus -7.5PPG. In that same time frame the Nuggets have the best home record in the league at 63-12 SU with the second-best average point differential of +9.7PPG. When we compare each teams recent spreads we find the Nuggets were favored by -8.5-points over the 76ers at home and even minus -10.5 against the Pacers in mid-January. Portland was just plus +10.5-points at home against the Bucks and were double-digit dogs at Houston, OKC and the Lakers. The Blazers are one of the poorest shooting teams in the league at 44% which ranks 29th and their 3PT% isn’t much better ranking 25th at 35.5%. Denver is a tough team to make shots against with the 9th best FG% defense and 13th best 3PT% D. Denver is going to have a much easier time scoring also with the 5th best shooting percentage in the NBA at 49.4% going up against a Blazer defense that allows 49.5% (26th). The advantage on the glass for Denver is also going to be an issue for Portland who rank 30th in defensive rebounds per game. With Denver off a loss and back at home, versus a young Portland team off a huge win, we will back the Nuggets and lay the points.

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic +8 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - This is a solid spot to back the Magic and fade the Wolves in this East vs West matchup. These teams recently met in Orlando on Jan 9th with the Wolves winning 113-92 as a -5.5-point road favorite. At first glance that would mean tonight’s line should be at a minimum -12, but the Magic were missing 3 starters in the earlier clash, hence the lack of adjustment. Orlando is healthy here and playing well with their regular rotation back on the floor. The Magic are 2-2 SU in their last four games and the two losses were by 2-points or less. Orlando is 10-16 SU on the road this season but 8-4 ATS their last twelve as a road underdog. Minnesota is coming off a pair of big Western Conference wins against the Thunder and Mavericks and may let down here against a Magic team they recently beat by double-digits. The Wolves have the 4th best home record in the NBA at 18-4 and own a spread record of 12-8-2 ATS. Both teams are coming off a win in their previous game and it’s interesting how each has done in this role this season. The Magic are 16-8 ATS when coming off a ‘W’ which is the 3rd best number in the NBA. Minnesota on the other hand is 15-16-2 ATS off a win. When we look at each teams last five games we find they are near even in both offensive and defensive efficiency which would indicate these teams are playing much closer right now than the 8-point spread.

#816 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Grand Canyon -9.5 over Seattle, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Grand Canyon is easily the best team in the WAC (only team in the top 100 in that conference) and they sit at the top of the standings with a 9-1 conference record, 19-2 overall. Their only non-conference loss came @ South Carolina by 7 points, a Gamecock team that is now 18-3 and sits in 2nd place in the SEC. Grand Canyon had a chance in that one as they led by 11 in the 2nd half. Their only other loss this season was in conference play vs this Seattle team just 12 days ago. The Antelopes were favored by 5 on the road in that game and now they are laying only 9 (opening line) in this one. We have this one power rated with GC as a 12 point favorite so some nice value here. In that 86-79 loss less than 2 weeks ago, Seattle shot lights out at home hitting 51% of their shots (their average is 43%) and 50% of their triples (their average is 31%). The Redhawks averaged 1.10 PPP in that win against a GC defense that leads the WAC in defensive efficiency giving up only 0.91 PPP. So as you can see, a lot had to go prefect for Seattle to get that win but despite the red hot shooting GC led for most of the 2nd half including with under 2:00 remaining so the 7 point margin was quite deceiving. The Antelopes are happy to be home, where they are 10-0 on the season, after a 3 game road trip. They are facing a Seattle team that is 1-6 SU on the road this season and dating back to last year they’ve won only 2 of their last 13 road tilts. We like Grand Canyon to win this one by double digits and get their quick revenge at home tonight.

#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -10.5 over Boise State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - No reason to jump off this New Mexico train right now. We were on them on Sunday vs Nevada and the Lobos simply rolled the Wolfpack 89-55. They were favored by -8.5 in that game and now are laying -9 (opening line) vs a Boise team that is rated almost the exact same as Nevada. The oddsmakers are having trouble catching up with how good this team is at home. They are now 11-0 SU at home and 9-1 ATS here at the Pit and going back further they’ve won 28 of their last 32 games here. The Lobos are now rated as the best team in the MWC and #19 overall nationally per KenPom. They have already faced 3 other conference contenders at the Pit and rolled them all beating Boise State by 34, San Diego State by 18, and Utah State (who is alone in first place) by 13. As we stated in our write up for Sunday’s game, the Lobos have led by at least 18 points in every home game but 1 and their margin of victory at the Pit is +24 PPG. After starting 3-0 in conference play, Boise has looked vulnerable over the last few weeks with a 2-2 record and both losses coming at home. Their one road game during that stretch was a tight 4 point win @ Fresno State, the lowest rated team in the MWC. The Broncos offense hasn’t been great in conference play ranking 9th in efficiency and 11th (last) in eFG%. Keeping up with an offense that isn’t shooting well will be a big problem in this game facing a New Mexico team that has averaged 91 PPG on their current 5 game winning streak. The Lobos continue to be undervalued and have the 7th best spread record in CBB at 15-5 (75%). We like them to pick up another easy home win on Wednesday.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +10.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10:10 PM ET - The Bucks haven’t been great off a loss with a 20-19-1 ATS record dating back to the start of last season and an average margin of victory in those games of +4.5PPG. The Bucks are coming off an ‘L’ in Denver on Monday in new head coach Doc Rivers debut. Milwaukee has an overall 11-10 SU road record this season with an average +/- of +1.1PPG. Portland is 8-13 SU at home on the season but 9-8 ATS as a home dog with a negative differential of minus -3.6PPG. The Blazers have been competitive as a home dog with a 6-1 ATS record in their last seven in that situation and the lone loss could have easily been a win against the Bulls just two games ago. In that game the Blazers had a horrible shooting night of 41% overall and 18% from Deep, both well below season averages. If we compare these two teams season averages we see the Bucks hold a massive offensive efficiency advantage but the two teams are even in DEFF. In the last five games of each team though the numbers are very close. The Bucks are averaging 1.166-points per possession, Portland is at 1.151PPP. Defensively, the Blazers are allowing 1.137PPP, the Bucks are giving up 1.119PPP. A lot is going to be made of Dame Lillard returning home to Portland and having a big game, but let’s not forget the Blazers roster is made up of guys out to show Dame he was wrong for leaving. We will grab the double-digits here.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 at Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - First off, we know the Rockets have been very good at home this season with a 17-8 SU record on their home court. The situation favors the Pelicans here who come into this game needing a win after 3 straight losses, while the Rockets just beat the Laker at home. The Pelicans 3 most recent losses came against the two best teams in the East at Milwaukee and at Boston. Prior to that the Pels lost to the Thunder. New Orleans is 9-7 SU their last sixteen games, but the 7 losses have come against some of the best teams in the NBA. On the season the Pelicans have faced the 7th toughest schedule to date yet have a winning 26-21 SU record and the 9th best adjusted net rating in the NBA. Houston has been a nice story this season, but their positive results don’t look sustainable with the current roster. In fact, it may be catching up with them as they are 7-12 SU in their last nineteen games. New Orleans should enjoy a sizable advantage from beyond the Arc with the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA compared to a Rockets team that is the 27th worst in 3PT%. The Rockets have beaten the Pelicans twice this season but we are predicting payback here for New Orleans.

#642 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -2 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - After starting the season 13-1, CSU has now lost 4 of their last 6 games and they are in need of a home win. All 4 of their losses during this current stretch came on the road but at home this team has been outstanding. They are 10-1 SU on the season at home and their only loss came by 3 points vs St Mary’s in a game where Colorado State played without 2 of their top 6 players and still almost won. The Rams offense has been deadly ranking in the top 10 in FG% while averaging over 80 PPG. At home this offense has played at another level making 53% of their shots, over 40% of their 3’s, and putting up 85 PPG. Not sure the Aztecs can keep up here as they shoot just 43% on the road and barely average 70 PPG away from home. SDSU has a 3-4 record in true road games and 2 of those 3 wins came vs teams ranked outside the top 100 and both went to the wire beating UC San Diego by 1 and San Jose State by 3. The Aztecs have played the easiest strength of schedule (conference games) and they still have 2 losses. They’ve been outscored by an average of -3 PPG on the road this season and they have a gigantic home game on deck vs 1st place Utah State. CSU has a very solid record of 7-4 SU vs top 100 teams including wins over Creighton, Colorado, and New Mexico. SDSU was in the National Championship game last season and CSU finished with a losing overall record, yet the Rams gave the Aztecs all they could handle here in Fort Collins before losing in OT. CSU is a MUCH better team this season (top 50 team this year / last year outside the top 100) and San Diego State isn’t on the same level as last year’s team. This line opened pick-em and we’re confident that the Rams will get a home win on Tuesday.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -5.5 vs Toronto Raptors, 8:10 PM ET - This is a rematch of a game recently played in Toronto where the Bulls won 116-110 as a 2-point Dog. The natural swing of the line in this situation should have the Bulls favored by at least 6-points in this game. Chicago is quietly playing very well right now and have won 10 of their last fourteen at home. On the season the Bulls don’t have great overall statistics but when you look at a smaller subset like the last five games, they’ve been solid and three of those games were on the road. In the last five games the Bulls rank 15th in offensive efficiency and 9th in DEFF with an average point differential of +1.2PPG. Toronto has lost five straight games and 9 of their last ten overall. We used the Raptors in their last game at Atlanta as a 6.5-point Dog and felt they could win that game outright, but they came up 2-points short. In the last meeting between these two teams the Raptors had their full complement of starters with Quickley and Barrett healthy, but both will miss this contest. Toronto has some awful road statistics with a 6-16 SU record and an average +/- of minus -4.4PPG. They rank 23rd in defensive road efficiency and 13th in away offensive efficiency. The value is on the Bulls here minus the points, lay it!

#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1.5 over Iowa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - IU is in desperate need of win coming off 3 straight losses. However, they just played the 3 best team in the Big 10 in consecutive games (Purdue, @ Wisconsin, @ Illinois) so the losses were not unexpected. The Hoosiers showed some fight in their most recent game @ Illinois on Saturday losing by 8 but it was much closer than that. In fact, 8 points was the largest lead of the game for Illinois and with under 1:00 minute remaining Indiana was down 2 and at the FT line. The Hoosiers didn’t make a single 3 point shot in the game (0 for 9) and were outscored by 5 points from the charity stripe. So between the FT’s and 3 pointers, IU was outscored by 26 points yet still had a shot to win the game in the final minute. We expect them to shoot much better at home where they hit over 48% of their shots including 36% of their triples. IU is 9-2 at home with their only losses coming vs 2 high level opponents, Kansas & Purdue. The Hawkeyes are playing their 2nd of back to back road games after beating Michigan in Ann Arbor on Saturday. Iowa needed a near perfect offensive performance to beat the Wolverines who are reeling to say the least right now losing 8 of their last 9 games, including 4 of those losses at home. Prior to Saturday Iowa was just 1-4 SU on the road but they caught fire in Michigan hitting 53% overall, 50% from beyond the arc, and they were 18 for 18 from the FT line. Now they face a solid Indiana defense who ranks 2nd in the Big 10 (conference play) in eFG% allowed and 1st in 3 point FG% allowed. The Hoosiers may also get forward Ware (14 PPG) back in the line up tonight after missing 2 games. Our power numbers have Indiana as a favorite here and this line opened pick-em. We like Indiana to win this one at home.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5 at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Wolves here as the Thunder are off a game yesterday in Detroit and also playing their 3rd game in four days. They have been on the road in 7 of their last eight games overall. Fatigue will be a factor for the Thunder as they are also playing their 5th game in a seven-day span. Minnesota suffered an upset loss in San Antonio on Saturday night and should be primed for this rematch with the Thunder. Oklahoma City recently beat the T’Wolves in Minnesota on Jan 20th 102-97 as a 3-point Dog. They also beat this Timberwolves team by 23-points earlier this season in December. Prior to that, the Wolves had won 3 straight and 7 of the previous eight meetings. Oklahoma City is a tough place to play and they have a 17-5 SU record on their home court but the Wolves are 15-10 SU away. Both have winning SU records this season when coming off a loss, but the Wolves numbers are a little better at 11-2 SU with an average +/- of plus +12.4PPG. The schedule advantage cannot be overlooked and we will side with the Timberwolves in this one.

#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -8 over Nevada, Sunday at 10 PM ET - We were on Nevada earlier this week at home vs Colorado State in a game they had to win coming off 3 straight losses. The Wolfpack won by 13 (easy cover) but now they are in a tough spot traveling to the Pit in New Mexico to face a red hot team that doesn’t lose at home. The Lobos are a perfect 10-0 SU at home this year (8-1 ATS) and they’ve won every game but one by at least 9 points. In MWC play their home margin of victory is +16 PPG and that includes easy wins over San Diego State (by 18) and Utah State (by 13), the 2 highest rated teams in the conference besides themselves. Their average margin of victory overall at home this season is +22 PPG and they’ve led by at least 18 points at some point in every home game but 1. Going back further the Lobos have now won 27 of their last 31 home games. This is a dominant home team. Nevada is 1-2 SU on the road in conference play with their only win coming @ Fresno State who is ranked as the worst team in the league per KenPom (212th overall). The other 2 MWC road games resulted in a double digit loss @ San Diego State and a 5 point loss @ Wyoming who is rated as the 2nd worst team in the league ahead of only Fresno. As if New Mexico needed any more incentive, this is a double revenger after losing twice to the Wolfpack last year. They lost @ Nevada in double OT and they lost by 1 point at home with the Wolfpack making the game winning shot as time expired. Utah State upset Boise on the road yesterday to move to 7-1 so the Lobos need to win here to stay 1 game out of first place and not drop 2 games behind the Aggies, who we mentioned they already beat here by 13. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors +6.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 6 PM - The Atlanta Hawks shouldn’t be laying this many points to anyone in the NBA not named the Pistons, Spurs, Wizards or Hornets. This team is lacking effort on the defensive end of the court that is obvious to a casual observer, let alone statisticians. For the season the Hawks rank 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.204-points per possession. They just gave up 73-points to Luka Doncic and 148 to the Mavericks as a team. They have allowed 122, 134 and 148 in their last three games. Part of the problem seems to be several trade rumors involving this team which are impacting their on the court chemistry. Atlanta is 8-13 SU at home with a negative differential of minus -3.4PPG. Toronto made their trade when they shipped Siakam to the Pacers for Bruce Brown who should start for the injured Quickly in this one. The Raptors have lost 4 straight games they came against a hot Bulls team, the Knicks and Clippers. The one bad loss in that stretch was at home to the Grizzlies by 8-points. The Raptors were recently +7.5-points at New York and the Knicks are far superior to this Hawks team. Atlanta was an -8.5-point favorite at home against the 10-36 Spurs and the Raptors rate more than 2.5-points better than San Antonio. These two teams have similar offensive efficiency ratings but the Raptors are much better defensively. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -1.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 9 pm ET - The Kings have a clear scheduling advantage here with a day of rest compared to the Mavs coming off a game last night in Atlanta. Luka Doncic had a monster night scoring 73-points but was visibly drained in the 4th quarter. Not only is this the second night of a back to back but also the Mavs 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six. Dallas has not done well on the second night of a back to back with a 7-13 SU record dating back to the start of last season. The Kings were off last night and are coming off a big win in Golden State on Thursday night. The Mavericks haven't been great at home with a 13-11 SU record this season and are 6-8-1 ATS as a home dog since the start of last season. In the games they've been a home underdog since last year they have lost those games by an average of -4.9PPG. Sacramento is 20-12-1 ATS dating back to the start of 2022 as a road favorite with an average +/- in those games of +3.7PPG. Earlier this season the Kings beat the Mavs rather easily on this floor by 16 and we expect another double-digit win here.

#816 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Weber State -11.5 or -12 over Idaho State, Saturday at 9 PM ET - This game has blowout written all over it in our opinion. Weber State is just 3-4 in Big Sky play, they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 but they are still the #1 rated team in the league per KenPom. Three of their four conference losses have come by 2, 2, and 3 points. Their only poor performance was @ Montana on Monday where they lost by 15. It was bad spot for Weber with their 3rd game in 5 days and now they’ve had since Monday to rest and get ready and we expect a huge home effort on Saturday where they are 8-1 on the season. The Cats only home loss was vs Eastern Washington, who is currently 6-0 in conference play, by just 2 points in a game Weber State led by 13. EWU hit 54% of their shots in that game and 90% of their FT’s and still won by just 2 points. Weber, who is the Big Sky favorite, is in a must win spot at home and playing one of the worst teams in the league. Idaho State is 7-13 overall and just 2-5 in the league despite playing the 266th strength of schedule. They are playing their 2nd straight road game after losing @ Montana State by 7 earlier this week. That was a deceiving final score as the Bengals trailed by 17 in that game with just over 5:00 minutes remaining in the game. They are just 2-9 SU on the road this year and they have won only 8 of their last 43 road games! 7 of Weber State’s 8 home wins have come by double digits and they are averaging 86 PPG at home this year. They are facing that is rated 293rd which is the 3rd worst team Weber has faced this season and the Bengals only average 65 PPG on the road. Big win for Weber State on Saturday night

#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -4 over Kansas, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - Kansas continues to live on past laurels and remains vastly overvalued in our opinion. They are 16-3 SU but just 7-11 ATS. This team is simply not on the same level as past Kansas teams. They are 4-2 in Big 12 play but have played the easiest conference slate thus far already facing the 3 lowest rated teams in the league (WVU, Okla St, and UCF). They have actually lost to 2 of those teams getting topped by UCF and West Virginia on the road. The Mountaineers are the worst team in the Big 12, they have only 2 wins all season vs top 100 teams and one of those was a 6 point win at home vs Kansas. The Jayhawks have even shown some vulnerability at home struggling to get by TCU by 2 and Cincinnati by 5 on Monday. ISU is also 4-2 but they’ve played the much tougher Big 12 slate (4th SOS in conference play) and their 2 losses were both on the road in very tough venues Oklahoma & BYU. The Cyclones are a perfect 12-0 at Hilton Coliseum, truly one of the toughest places to play in college hoops. That includes a win over #1 Houston (per KenPom). Since the start of last season ISU is 25-3 SU at home including a 15 point win here over Kansas last season who won the Big 12 and was a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney. Last year’s KU team was definitely better than this year’s team and ISU’s team this year is better than they were last season. Iowa State’s defense is very high level ranking 3rd nationally in efficiency and they create turnovers on 27% of opponents possessions (#1 nationally) which is bad news for a KU offense that isn’t great at protecting the ball (132nd). It’s really tough to score on this ISU team allowing 61 PPG (6th nationally) and with the Cyclones averaging 85 PPG at home, you can see why 11 of their 12 wins at home have come by double digits. We project another double digit win here for Iowa State so we’ll lay this small number.

#888 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure -2.5 over St Joes, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - This could be tabbed a must win for St Bonnies after losing 4 of their last 5 games including 2 straight on the road entering this contest. They are 2-4 in A10 play but still power rated as the 3rd best team in the conference per KenPom. Their most recent game was a particularly poor performance @ Duquesne and we expect a strong bounce back at home. In that 4 point loss to the Dukes, the Bonnies made only 27% of their shots, just 15% of their 3’s and 67% of their FT’s. Their season averages in those categories are 46%, 37%, and 78% respectively so it was just a poor shooting performance on the road and they still were in it to the end. STB also played that game without starting guard Adams-Woods who averages 14 PPG and leads the team in assists. He was sick on Tuesday and we would expect him back for this game. The Bonnies are catching St Joes coming off 3 straight wins including an upset @ UMass earlier this week. In that game STJ trailed by 13 points midway through the 2nd half and rallied to make a shot at the buzzer for a 1 point win. The Hawks last 2 wins have come by 2 points and 1 point and prior to their 3 game winning streak they had lost 4 of 5. Before their last second win @ UMass they had lost 3 straight road games. STJ relies very heavily in the 3 point shot and they are facing a St Bonnie defense that allows just 31% from deep (44th nationally). The Hawks hit nearly 50% of their 3’s in their 1 point win on Tuesday and we don’t expect them to be anywhere near as successful from deep tonight. Last season St Bonaventure was a 4 point favorite at home vs St Joes and won by 13. They’ve won 9 in a row vs the Hawks and the last time St Joes won @ St Bonnies was back in 2014 (9 straight losses at St Bonaventure). We like the home team in this must win spot.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors +2 or +2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - This line is off, and the value clearly lies with the Warriors at home as an underdog. Golden State played last night but fatigue isn’t going to be a factor as they had 9-days off prior to that. Both teams' most recent opponent was Atlanta. The Warriors beat the Hawks by 22 last night as a 6-point home chalk. The Kings were favored by 8-points at home over Atlanta and won by 15. The outcomes aren’t what matter it’s the pointspread as Vegas is suggesting the Kings are a 2-point favorite on a neutral court. If we examine the three previous meetings this season, we find the Warriors were +1.5 and +3 at Sacramento and were favored by -7-points at home on November 1st. This is a big rivalry after last season’s playoff series and there is no way the Warriors should be home underdogs. Golden State’s Steph Curry has played extremely well against the Kings with a 50 and 41-point game against them in the last four meetings. If we go back to last season and the playoff series, Curry has averaged 33PPG vs. the Kings. Another recent schedule comparison is a Warriors home game against the Nuggets where they were a 4-point dog. Sacramento was also +4.5 points at Phoenix within the past 10-days. Golden State is 8-2 ATS as a home dog dating back to the start of last season. Grab the points as the wrong team is favored in this one.

#808 ASA TOP PLAY ON Sam Houston State -4.5 over New Mexico State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - After winning their first 3 games in CUSA play, Sam Houston State lost @ Liberty last weekend. They are 3-1 in league playing having faced the 2nd most difficult conference schedule thus far. The Bearkats have already faced CUSA’s 3 highest rated teams per KenPom and beat 2 of those teams, Western Kentucky & La Tech, at home. NMSU is also 3-1 but they’ve faced the league’s easiest conference slate thus far already facing the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference (besides themselves). The Aggies have also played only 1 road game in conference play which was a 10 point loss @ FIU, the 2nd lowest rated team in the league. Speaking of road games, New Mexico State is 0-7 SU this year in true road games losing by an average of 18 points per game. In a game with a tight spread, FT’s will most likely be key in this one. Sam Houston should have a huge edge at the stripe here as they get their often (22% of their points are FT’s – 48th most nationally) and New Mexico State fouls as much as any team I the country. The Aggies send teams to the FT line an average of 25 times per game (9th most nationally) and a whopping 27% of their opponents points come from the stripe (3rd most in the country). These 2 teams both came over to Conference USA from the WAC so they are familiar with each other. Last year SHSU was a dog @ NMSU and won by double digits. A year earlier the Bearkats were a home dog vs NMSU and again won by double digits. We really like the way SHSU has played against the top teams in the conference already this year and we expect a win and cover for the host in this game.

#732 ASA TOP PLAY ON Nevada -2.5 over Colorado State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - Nevada won 15 of their first 16 games this season and now they’ve lost 3 straight so we look for a huge effort at home tonight. Their last 2 losses were both on the road and now they are back home where the Wolfpack are 9-1 this season and 24-2 SU since the start of last season. Nevada was favored by 4 at home vs CSU last year and won by 11 and going back further they’ve won 7 of their last 8 home games vs the Rams. Colorado State is coming off back to back home wins but they weren’t impressive in those games. It took OT for CSU to top a poor Air Force team as a 15.5 point favorite and then on Saturday they trailed UNLV for most of the 2nd half before taking their first lead with 2:30 remaining and pull out a come from behind 3 point win. The Rams are 0-2 on the road in conference play losing @ Utah State and @ Boise State, 2 teams ranked almost identical to this Nevada squad. The Wolfpack defense, which has been very good all season, was atrocious in their most recent game (a loss @ Wyoming) giving up their season high in points and shooting percentage. We expect a huge emphasis and bounce back on that end of the court tonight at home where they are allowing just 61 PPG on 38% opponents shooting. CSU’s overall offensive efficiency numbers are very good, however they’ve dropped off considerably since starting MWC play ranking 6th in the conference in efficiency. This is a huge game for Nevada, one of the favorites to win the MWC, as they are 2-3 in conference play and travel to New Mexico this weekend.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks have moved on from first year head coach Adrian Griffin after starting the season 30-13. The main reason for the firing was the Bucks lack of defense as they dropped from 4th in defensive efficiency from a year ago to 22nd this season. Interim coach Joe Prunty will take over in the short term as it looks like the Bucks will bring in vet Doc Rivers. Coaching won’t have a lot to do with tonight’s game, the players will. Milwaukee was just embarrassed on Jan 17th in Cleveland by 40-points, a 95-135 loss that is still fresh in their minds. Going back to December 29th, the Bucks beat the Cavs on their home court 119-111. In the most recent Cleveland win, the Cavs got a ‘unicorn’ night from George Niang who shot 13 of 14 from the floor in scoring 33-points. We are betting the short-handed Cavs don’t get another performance like that from Niang tonight in Milwaukee. The Bucks are 19-4 SU at home on the season with an average +/- of +7PPG. They have won 3 straight at home against quality competition in the Celtics, Warriors and Kings. Cleveland is playing very well right now with 8 straight wins, but other than the win against the Bucks, they haven’t beaten a team in that stretch of games with a winning percentage better than .524. Three of the Cavs last eight wins have come against the Wizard and Spurs who combined have 15 wins between them on the year. This one will get ugly early!

#688 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -1.5 over Davidson, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We were on St Louis last Friday and they lost @ VCU but we’re going back to the well with the Billikens at home on Wednesday night. Despite their loss @ VCU, as we stated in that game’s analysis we still feel STL is undervalued right now with their 8-10 overall record. They are finally healthy after having clusters of injuries this season to 4 of their top 7 scorers who have all missed time this season. They’ve been a full strength for just 3 games now and the 2 prior to losing @ VCU they played very well beating a good St Joes team at home and then took the best team in the A10, Dayton, to the wire on the road losing by just 5 points. Both these teams are 1-4 in conference play but STL has played the tougher slate (2nd SOS in conference play) already playing 3 of the 6 teams in the A10 that rank inside KenPom’s top 100. In their only home game at full strength, the Billikens topped a very good St Joe’s team that is 12-6 and ranks as the 4th best team in the Atlantic 10. Davidson has won only 1 conference game as well but they’ve played 3 of their 5 league games at home and already faced 3 of the 5 lowest rated teams in the A10. The Wildcats are not a good shooting team this year ranking outside the top 200 in both over shooting percentage and 3 point percentage and they’ve been a bit lucky with opponents making only 65% of their FT’s vs Davidson this season. STL is one of the better 3 point shooting teams in the country (top 40 in percentage) and at home they are even better hitting 42% of their triples. With this line set at around a pick-em, we like the Billikens to win this game at home.

#622 ASA TOP PLAY ON Charlotte -4 or -4.5 over UAB, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Charlotte is 8-1 at home this season and they are on a nice 5 game winning streak. During that 5 game streak they’ve beaten FAU and North Texas, 2 of the 4 teams rated in the top 75 nationally from the AAC conference. FAU is the top team in the league and currently ranked 26th by KenPom. The 49ers have been waiting for this game after losing at home in double OT to UAB last March. The Blazers were a top 50 team last year with a 29-10 overall record but their ranked 100 spots lower this year after losing 6 of their top 7 players from that team. UAB has won 8 of their last 9, however 6 of those games came at home and only 1 of those wins was vs a top 100 team. That was a 1 point win at home vs Drake. The other top 100 team the faced during that 9 game run was FAU who beat the Blazers by double digits. UAB does have a 3-2 SU road record but their 3 wins have come vs UTSA by 2 points (lowest rated team in the AAC), vs Middle Tenn State by 1 point (ranked outside the top 300), and vs Alabama A&M (one of the 10 lowest rated teams in the country). Charlotte has played a top 90 schedule this season (UAB outside the top 150 in SOS) yet the 49ers still have better shooting percentages on offense & defense. They have a huge edge defensively ranking in the top 65 in eFG% allowed and allowing just 64 PPG on the season (top 20) while UAB ranks outside the top 220 in eFG% allowed and they give up 75 PPG. Charlotte is outscoring their opponents at home by +14 PPG and they’ve won 30 of their last 38 home games. We like the 49ers at home vs the overvalued Blazers on Tuesday night.

ASA top play 10* on #572 Phoenix Suns -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8 PM ET - Phoenix is starting to jell now that they have a relatively healthy roster and look like the team many expected them to be this season. The Suns have won 4 straight games with an 18-point win at the Lakers, an 11-point win at Portland, a solid home win over the Kings and then a W at New Orleans. Indiana is playing their 6th straight road game and coming off a poor showing in Portland. The Pacers also lost by 8-points in Denver and by 27 in Utah on this road trip. Granted they did not have Haliburton for most of this trip, but he did play in their most recent game in Portland. Indiana has one of the worst road defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA as they allow 1.224-points per possession (27th). The Suns season statistics aren’t an accurate indicator for this team as the Big 3 of Beal, Durant and Booker have barely played together. Now that all 3 are on the floor we expect their numbers to improve dramatically including their 3-point percentage which is 37.6% and 9th best in the league. The Pacers are 23rd in the league in defending the 3PT line allowing 37.8%. The Suns were recently a 4.5-point home favorite against the Kings, the same line we have here. That same Kings team just hosted the Pacers and were 8-point favorites. That tells us the value is on the Suns in this home game at a bargain price.

#837 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wichita State +4.5 over South Florida, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Wait a minute? A team that has won 8 of their last 9 games (USF) is at home and facing a team that has lost 6 in a row (Wichita St) and the host is laying only 4.5 points? Looks way too easy to grab USF here and we’re siding with the dogs. Despite their records (Wichita is 8-9 / USF is 10-5) we have these 2 teams power rated dead even on a neutral court. The Shockers have played the MUCH tougher schedule (64th SOS) and 5 of their last 6 games have come vs top 100 opponents. They just gave Florida Atlantic (ranked 25th per KenPom) all they could handle on the road before losing by 9. Wichita led that game by 11 at half and the first lead FAU was able to grab in the 2nd half came with just 6:00 remaining in the game. While the Shockers have been playing high level opponents over the last month, USF has played 1 top 100 team since December 9th and their overall strength of schedule ranks outside the top 300. Their one game vs a top 100 opponent over the last month just happened to be on Thursday night when they pulled the 74-73 upset @ Memphis. It was a game that USF trailed by 20 points in the 2nd half and at that moment they had right around a 1% chance of winning the game according to KenPom metrics. They used a massive amount of physical and emotional energy making that huge comeback on Thursday and we feel a letdown is in order here. Despite Wichita playing a SOS over 200 spots higher than South Florida, the Shockers shoot the ball better on offense (45% to 43%) and allow a lower percentage defensively (42% to 43%). Last year Wichita was +1 in this game @ USF and won by 4. Now they are getting 4.5 points (opening line) and we give them a great shot at winning this one.

ASA play 8* on #555 Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 PM ET - The Hawks are off a pair of buzzer beating wins in their last two games as Dejonte Murray hit a game winner on Wednesday in Orlando and did it again last night in Miami. They will suffer a letdown here against a rested Cavs team that is playing extremely well right now. Cleveland has won 6 straight games and is coming off an impressive 40-point win over the Milwaukee Bucks. All but one of the Cavs last six wins have come 9 or more points. The Hawks are playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back. Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the NBA when playing without rest with a 5-15 SU record their last 20. These two teams have met twice this season with the Cavs winning both by 8 and 23-points. Lay the short number with the Cavaliers.

ASA play 8* on #554 NY Knicks -7.5 vs Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - These two teams just completed a trade recently which sent Quickly and Barrett to the Raptors for Anunoby to New York. The early returns tell us the Knicks were the winner of that deal. Anunoby gives the Knicks the wing defender they so desperately needed and another viable scoring threat to go along with Brunson and Randall. New York has won 2 straight games and 8 of their last ten. The Knicks have won 6 of their last seven at home. The Raptors made another deal recently that sent former All-Star Siakam to the Pacers for Bruce Brown and draft picks. That trade did not make the Raptors better in the short-term but will help build the roster in the future. Toronto is 1-5 SU their last six games, 4-6 SU their last ten overall. They haven’t been good on the road with a 6-15 SU record, 10-10-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.4PPG. The Knicks are 10-7-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of +7.5PPG. We are betting the current Raptors (Quckley and Barrett) struggle in their return to New York tonight. Lay the points.

#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +1.5 or +2 over Virginia, Saturday at 6 PM ET - We faded Virginia on the road last week @ Wake Forest and the Deacs rolled to an easy 19 point win. That dropped UVA’s record in true road games to 0-4 SU and ATS with every loss coming by at least 16 points. Their home vs road splits are as drastic as any team in the country. The Cavs are averaging only 54 PPG on 37% shooting away from home this season. Their normally stellar defense gives up 74 PPG on 49% shooting in road games. They’ve lost their 4 road games to the spread by 80 total points or an average -20 point ATS per game. We’re getting some value here with Tech because they’ve lost 5 of their last 6 games. However, only 1 of those would be considered a bad loss (lost in OT @ Notre Dame) and their most recent game was a win @ Clemson (ranked 39th per KenPom) as a double digit underdog. Their game prior to that the Yellow Jackets lost @ Duke by 5 but led the Blue Devils by double digits in the 2nd half despite getting shafted by the refs (not a surprise at Cameron Indoor Stadium) with a -12 made FT margin. Speaking of the Blue Devils, this Georgia Tech team already beat Duke here at home earlier in the season. Until UVA proves they can win, or even stay close, on the road, we’ll continue to fade them. Especially when they open as a road favorite vs a more than competent Ga Tech team.

#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State +3.5 or +4 over Louisiana Tech, Saturday at 5 PM ET - We think we have some very solid value with JSU here as our power ratings have them as a small favorite and the opening line was La Tech -2.5. The Gamecocks are undervalued and on the rise winning 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve also covered 5 of their last 6 and JSU’s only loss during that stretch was their most recent game (last Saturday) @ Western Kentucky, a game they led by 10 in the 2nd half but lost. Included in that 7 game stretch was a 10 point win @ Liberty (as an 11 point dog) who is rated as the best team in CUSA. La Tech just played host to that same Liberty team and won in OT in a game the Bulldogs trailed pretty much throughout despite the win. LT is just 3-6 SU in their true road games with 2 of those wins coming vs teams ranked outside the top 300. JSU’s defense is high level allowing just 62 PPG (12th nationally) and at home that drops to 59 PPG. They put lots of pressure on opposing teams with a defensive turnover rate of 19% which is a bad match up for the La Tech offense that coughs up the ball 19% of the time (263rd nationally). That should lead to extra possessions for the Gamecocks who shoot 49% from the field at home while averaging 77 PPG. La Tech has never played at this venue and we expect Jacksonville State to win this game at home. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks – 8:10 PM ET - This is certainly a tough scheduling spot for the Hawks who are coming off a game last night versus the Magic while Miami is rested. It took a buzzer beating shot by Dejonte Murray to steal that victory last night and we’re betting they have a tough time getting back up for this game tonight. When Miami last played they were blown out in Toronto 121-97. The Heat rank 11th in defensive efficiency rating but they struggled to get stops against the Raptors and allowed 20 made 3-pointers. Prior to that loss the Heat had won 3 straight games and are finally getting healthy Butler, Adebayo and Herro all in the lineup. These teams met in December with the Heat winning 122-113 at home as a 1-point chalk. Miami played without Butler in that game and still won by 9-points. The Hawks haven’t been a great road team this season with a negative differential of minus -1.7PPG and a 9-12 SU record. Miami has had a ton of missed games by starters this season yet still have a home record of 12-7 SU and an average +/- of plus 1.2PPG. Miami has been very good when coming off a loss with a 61% win rate dating back to the start of last season. Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the NBA when playing without rest with a 5-15 SU record in their last 20. Miami has won outright 7 of the last ten meetings and will get a double-digit win here.

#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis +8.5 over VCU, Friday at 7 PM ET - St Louis is an undervalued team right now in our opinion with an 8-9 overall record and just 1-3 in the Atlantic 10. That’s because this team is finally healthy after having a number of injuries this season. Four of their top seven scorers have missed time this year due to injury. Top guard Parker has been back for 2 games after missing 9 in a row and starting center Ezewiro, a transfer from Georgetown, missed the first 11 games of the season and has scored double digits in every game since his return. Meadows and Hughes are 2 other key players who have missed time this season. They have had all hands on deck for their last 2 games and played very well beating a good St Joes team at home and then taking by far the best team in the A10, Dayton, to the wire on the road on Tuesday losing by just 5 points. The Billikens held tough with the Flyers despite attempting just 7 FT’s compared to 29 for Dayton. Now they take on a VCU team that is rated the 4th or 5th best team in the A10 and is 2-2 in league play with both wins coming to the wire (wins by 4 & 6 points). VCU has also struggled at home this season already losing 5 games on their home court. The Rams average margin of victory this year is +6 points and they’ve won 4 games by more than 12 points this season and 3 of those 4 wins came vs teams ranked 220 or lower. We like St Louis to give VCU all they can handle in this one so we’re grabbing the generous points.

ASA play 8* on #529 Indiana Pacers +7.5 at Sacramento Kings – 10 PM ET - We like the Pacers here plus the points against the Kings who are coming off an extended road trip and playing their first game back at home. Sacramento has lost 3 straight games to some of the elite teams in the NBA but they are clearly over-priced here. A general line analysis tells us this line should be -5.5 at the most. In recent home games the Kings were favored by -5.5-points against the Magic, -4.5 vs. Toronto and New Orleans. Indiana rates higher than Orlando and Toronto in our power ratings and slightly below the Pelicans. Indiana is playing without PG Haliburton and have lost two straight but those two L’s came against a red hot Jazz team in Utah and another loss at Denver. Here they step down in class to face a Kings team that has a winning overall record at home of 13-7 SU but they have a negative differential of minus -0.1PPG. The Pacers have an average net differential on the road of minus -2PPG but also have a winning record of 10-8 SU. The Pacers made a huge deal yesterday when they traded for Siakam but don’t expect him to play tonight. Grab the points with Indiana.

#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty -12.5 over FIU, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Despite the Flames sitting as a double digit favorite, we’re still get value on them in this game. That’s because they’ve lost 3 straight and sit at 0-3 in CUSA play (first year in CUSA) after winning the Atlantic Sun conference with a 15-3 record last year. They have plenty of experience back off that team that went 27-8 last year with 5 of their top 7 rotation guys back. Two of their three losses over the last week and half have come by 2 points and in OT and all 3 were vs top 150 teams. They’ve faced a top 100 schedule so far this season including the most difficult in Conference USA. In Liberty’s most recent home game, they were favored by 11 vs a Jacksonville State team that ranks more than 100 spots higher than this FIU team yet the spread vs the Panthers on Thursday is only 1 or 2 points higher. FIU has a 7-11 record despite playing a much easier schedule (276th SOS) but they’ve won 2 in a row, both at home vs teams ranked outside the top 220, thus the lower number. Liberty is a very good shooting team, top 100 in eFG% and offensive efficiency, and they are facing a terrible FIU defense that ranks outside the top 340 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG% defense. The Panthers allow 84 PPG on the road and they are facing a Liberty offense that puts up over 80 PPG at home while limiting their opponents to just 50 PPG. The Flames, despite their 0-3 conference record, are still the highest rated team in CUSA per KenPom. They have a home record of 37-5 SU since the start of the 2021 season and this is an absolute must win for them at home. Big win here for Liberty.

ASA top play on #503 Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 or -4 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:40 PM ET - The Cavs have won 5 straight games, but they’ve come against 19-23 Bulls, 16-23 Nets, 7-32 Spurs and two wins against the 7-32 Wizards. So, let’s not be fooled by this current Cavaliers stretch of wins. The Bucks on the other hand have won 3 straight against the Celtics, Warriors and Kings. Milwaukee is the superior team here offensively ranking 3rd compared to the Cavs ranking 20th. Cleveland does hold the advantage defensively with the 5th best overall rating compared to the Bucks at 15th. Milwaukee has the 3rd best 3-point percentage in the league while the Cavs rank 10th in 3PT% defense. The Cavs are 26th in the NBA in 3PT% shooting and won’t make many against the Bucks defense that is 2nd in the league in defending the 3-point line. In fact, in the most recent meeting between these two teams the Bucks held the Cavs to 6 of 43 on 3-point field goals. The Cavaliers are still without dynamic PG Garland and starting Center Mobley and simply don’t have the depth to hang with Milwaukee at near full strength. Lay the points on the road.

#702 ASA TOP PLAY ON Virginia -3.5 over Virginia Tech, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for UVA who is coming off 2 straight losses, both on the road, and now coming home where they are 9-0 on the season. Va Tech is trending down with a 5-5 SU record since late November and they’ve beaten 1 top 100 team since November 26th. The Hokies are 0-4 in true road games this season with 3 of those losses coming by double digits. In their road games this season Va Tech is barely making 40% of their shots and averaging just 64 PPG. We don’t anticipate them breaking out on the road here vs a Virginia defense that ranks 19th nationally in defensive efficiency and is holding their opponents to a paltry 49 PPG at home. The Hokies are a good FT shooting team and they really rely in getting to the charity stripe (70th nationally in % of points from the FT line) but the Cavs rarely foul allowing opponents only 9 made FT’s per game at home. We went against UVA on the road on Saturday @ WF and they were rolled by double digits. This is a different team at home where they are winning by an average of +25 PPG with a 7-2 ATS record. UVA was favored by 5 here last year and won by 10 and we see a similar final score on Wednesday night. Lay it with Virginia.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns -5 vs Sacramento Kings, 9 PM ET - The Suns grade out below the Kings in most season long statistical categories, but they’ve played most of the season without their ‘big 3’ of Booker, Durant and Beal on the floor together. They are finally healthy so we are starting to see what this roster can potentially do. They are coming off 2 straight road wins over the Lakers and Blazers and now catch a Kings team playing their 5th straight road game. Sacramento is off a demoralizing last second loss to the Bucks when Dame Lillard hit a deep 3-pointer with no time on the clock. The big edge we like for the Suns in this game will be 3-point shooting. The Suns are 11th in the league in 3-point percentage (even with the injuries) at 37.4%. The Kings are second to last in the NBA in opponents 3PT% allowed. The Suns are also one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the league, so the Kings won’t get many second chance opportunities here. You can expect the Suns to steadily trend up as they become accustomed to playing with each other so tonight is a ‘buy low’ opportunity with Phoenix.

#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON Indiana +10.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Purdue has shown some serious vulnerability on the road this season. They have played 3 true road games this season losing 2 of those games @ Northwestern and @ Nebraska. Their only true road win was @ Maryland in a game the Terps hit only 33% of their shots overall, just 23% of their 3’s and made only 6 FT’s. Now they face their rival IU who is 9-1 at home with their only loss at Assembly Hall coming by 4 points vs Kansas in a game where the Hoosiers led for much of. IU has been very solid offensively at home hitting nearly 50% of their shots while scoring 77 PPG. They should be able to keep up in this one vs a Purdue defense that has allowed 78 PPG on the road this year. The Boilers defense has allowed at least 78 points in each of their last 3 games and in Big 10 play they are giving up an average of 76 PPG in their 6 Big 10 games this season. It will be tough for Purdue to pull away in this one. On the other end of the court the IU defense has been very good at home allowing just 68 PPG on 39% shooting. Only 3 of their 10 opponents have been able to top 70 points at Assembly Hall. Indiana topped Purdue here last year by 5 points as a 1.5 point favorite and now they are near a double digit dog just one year later. This is the largest home dog role for Indiana vs Purdue since the 2009 season. 11 of the last 15 meetings between these 2 rivals have resulted in single digit win margins and we expect another one here. Take the points with Indiana.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +7.5 at Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - This line is grossly inflated with the Jazz current success and the fact that the Pacers are coming off a game in Denver last night. The Pacers gave extended minutes to their bench players yesterday so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor here. Utah has ripped off 5-straight wins, but they are coming off a big win over the Lakers and have two huge games on deck against the Warriors and Thunder. Looking at recent home games for the Jazz they were favored by -8.5-points against the 3-36 Pistons. Now they are laying nearly that same number against the 23-16 Pacers. Utah has been a solid home favorite this season with a 5-1 ATS record, but the Pacers are a profitable 13-9 ATS as an underdog this season. These two teams have similar strength of schedules yet the Pacers rank 2nd in offensive efficiency and 26th in DEFF compared to the Jazz who are 23rd in OEFF and 23 in defensive efficiency. Clearly the Bookmakers have over-adjusted this number so let's grab the value with Indiana over Utah.

#876 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -1.5 over Iowa, Monday at 6 PM ET - We faded Minnesota on Friday and picked up a win as Indiana rolled at home to an easy win. Now we get a much improved Gopher team at home off a loss basically in a pick-em game vs Iowa. Meanwhile the Hawkeyes are off a huge home win over Nebraska scoring 94 points in the process. Iowa was in an ideal situation in that game catching the Huskers upsetting Purdue at home just a few days earlier. Iowa has been a completely different team away from home the last few seasons. This year they are 0-4 SU in true road game with an average margin of -16 points per game. If we go back to the start of last season they have played 15 true road games and won only 4 of those. The Hawkeyes average 95 PPG at home and only 72 PPG on the road, they shoot over 50% at home and just 43% on the road, and from beyond the arc they make 37% of their shot at home and 32% on the road. Minnesota is drastically improved from last season and they have only 1 home loss vs Missouri, a game the Gophers led by 20 in the 2nd half. Prior to their loss @ Indiana the Gophers had won 7 straight and they’ve been a huge money maker with a 14-2 ATS record this season. Minnesota is tough to guard with 5 players averaging double digit points including one of the top players in the Big 10, Dawson Garcia, averaging 17 PPG and 8 RPG. They rank in the top 30 nationally in eFG% and Minny is facing an Iowa defense that allows 77 PPG overall and 84 PPG on the road. The Hawks have a huge home game on deck vs Purdue so a look ahead is highly possible. We have this game power rated with Minnesota a 4 point home favorite and we’re getting them near pick-em. We like the Gophers in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +5.5 or +5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - We like the scheduling advantage for the Kings as they catch the Bucks off a big game last night against the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee is also off a huge home win over the Celtics on Thursday night making this their 3rd game in four nights and the 2nd of of a back to back. The Bucks clearly are not unbeatable at home this season as they’ve lost recent home games to the Jazz and Pacers. Since the start of last season the Bucks are 50-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.3PPG. The Kings are rested and come into this game off a recent loss in Philadelphia. Prior to that loss the Kings had won 4 straight road games. Going back to the start of the 2022-23 season the Kings have the 4th best road record in the NBA and average +/- on the road of +1.7PPG. Milwaukee’s defense has been their Achilles heel this season as they give up 119.4PPG which is 24th most in the league. Sacramento is the 9th highest scoring team in the league and should put up plenty of points here to cover this short number.

ASA top play 10* on: #760 Southern Illinois +2.5 vs Drake, 8 PM ET - Drake off huge home win over Indiana State who is the best team in the MVC this year and should be flat for this road date against So. Illinois. Drake has played three true road games, all versus teams ranked lower than Southern Illinois and lost two of those games, one by 22-points to Belmont. The Bulldogs only true road win was at Valparaiso who is ranked outside top 300 per KenPom. SIU is a top 100 team that ranks in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive eFG%. The Salukis are 79th in offensive efficiency and 120th in DEFF. Southern Illinois is a very good 3-point shooting team at 38.9% (16th in the nation) and also defends the Arc well with 2nd lowest 3PT% against in the country at 26.1%. The Salukis are 9-1 SU at home this year with an average +/- of +16.1PPG and 20-5 SU since the start of last year. Southern is playing with revenge here as they lost to Drake in the conference tournament a year ago. In the regular season meeting on this court a year ago, SIU beat Drake 53-49. We call for another W this time around.

ASA play 8* on: #656 Wake Forest -5.5 vs. Virginia, 2 PM ET - Wake Forest is much improved this year and should be ready to bounce back after a 5-point road loss @ Florida State earlier this week. The Deacons are undefeated at home this season with an average margin of victory of +19PPG. Last season Wake Forest was 13-3 SU at home with an average +/- of +7.8PPG. UVA is not nearly as good as they have been in the past under Tony Bennett and they’ve had their struggles on the road. The Cavaliers are 0-3 SU in true road games this season with all of those losses coming by double digits including by 22 @ Notre Dame who is the 2nd worst team in the ACC. Wake Forest is a very good offensive team ranking 21st in efficiency and 33rd in eFG%. The Demon Deacons put up 81PPG on the season which is 36th nationally. This Virginia team has struggled offensively shooting just 45.4% (152nd) and 35.9% from Deep which ranks 90th. UVA has scored 60, 54, and 54 in their 3 road games which will not get it done against this Wake Forest team.

ASA top play 10* on: #622 New Mexico -3.5 over San Diego State, 2 PM ET - New Mexico is off a road loss @ UNLV by 10-points but should bounce back here at home against the Aztecs. In the game against UNLV the Lobos shot well at 49% for the game and were +8 in rebounds but turned it over 16 times. Those TO’s were very uncharacteristic for this New Mexico team that is 37th in turnover percentage on the season so don’t expect a sloppy performance at home on Saturday. New Mexico is very good at home in the Pit with a 8-0 SU record this year and an average margin of victory of +20.7PPG. All but one of those home wins have come by at least 9 points. Going back even further we find the Lobos are 23-4 SU at home since the start of last year and they beat this same San Diego St (final 4 team) team on road last year and lost by 2 at home. In the loss at home New Mexico blew a 13-point 2nd half lead. The Aztecs are a top 25 team yet are an underdog here. SDSU is on the road for the 2nd straight game after barely beating San Jose St on Tuesday who has a 7-9 record. San Deigo State is not a great shooting team overall at 45.1% which ranks 166th in the nation. They struggle from Deep with a 32.6 shooting percentage which is 232nd. New Mexico hits 46.7% of their FG attempts (88th) and gets plenty of attempts with the 17th fastest paced offense in college hoops.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -14 over the Portland Trailblazers, 8:10 PM ET - We don’t make a habit of laying double digits in the NBA but tonight we will make an exception. The Blazers are bad…really bad! In their last two games they’ve lost to the Knicks 84-112 and to OKC last night 77-139. This team is last in the NBA in offensive efficiency over their last 5 games and score just .980 points per possession in that span of games. Defensively they are better, but not by much as they allow 1.189PPP which ranks 20th in their last 5. They have the worst average point differential in the league at minus -21.4PPG in that same stretch of games. Portland is playing their 7th straight road game, 2nd of back-to-back nights, 3rd in four nights and 7th game in 12 days. The Blazers average +/- on the road this season is a negative -9.8PPG. Minnesota meanwhile is coming off a tough loss to the Celtics and also lost their most recent home game to the Pelicans. The Wolves have the 4th best home differential in the NBA at +9.7PPG and rely on a defense that is best in the NBA in terms of efficiency ratings. Given the circumstances we expect the T’Wolves to get a dominating home win here.

#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana -4 over Minnesota, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - Big home game for the Hoosiers coming off a road loss @ Rutgers earlier this week. This situation is similar to last Saturday when we were on Indiana at home vs Ohio State and picked up a win. IU is a near perfect 8-1 at home this season with their lone loss by 4 points vs Kansas, a game the Hoosiers led most of the way. They take on a Minnesota team that has an impressive 12-3 overall record but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country (347th SOS out of 363 teams). The Gophers have played a grand total of ONE road game since December 3rd compared to 6 home games. That 1 road game they came from behind in the 2nd half to squeak by Michigan 73-71 in a game they shot nearly 50% from the field and over 40% from beyond the arc. That was also a win vs a Michigan team that is falling apart at the seams losers of 9 of their last 12 games and Minnesota was a 6.5 point dog in that game. Now IU laying only 3 in a crucial home tilt. The Hoosiers have won 7 straight at home vs Minnesota and the last time the Gophers were able to pull off a win at Assembly Hall was the 2011/12 season. We like Indiana to win and cover at home.

ASA play on Boston Celtics +6 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Something is clearly going on within the Bucks organization/locker room that we can’t figure out. Even though this team is 25-12 SU, this loaded roster should be better than it is. The Bucks are currently 21st in defensive efficiency after ranking 4th a season ago. The Celtics were 3rd in DEFF a year ago and rank 2nd this season allowing just 1.113PPP. That’s what separates these two teams as the C’s play defense and the Bucks don’t. Both teams average over 1.210 points per possession and rank 2nd and 3rd in offensive efficiency. The Celtics are coming off a game last night but that hasn’t mattered as they are 9-4 ATS dating back to the start of last season when playing without rest. They have a very deep roster and have beaten the Bucks 5 of the last six times they’ve played. Milwaukee was 24-18-2 ATS at home a year ago with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. The Celtics owned the best road point differential in the league last season at +2.9PPG. Boston has an average margin of victory on the road this season of +6.4PPG. Milwaukee at home is winning by an average +5.8PPG at home with a 7-11-1 ATS record on their home court. Grab the points with the Celtics unless they decide to sit starters.

#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -5.5 over Old Dominion, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We went against ODU last Saturday and came up with an easy win as Arkansas State won by 15. We’ll fade the Monarchs again on Thursday as they are playing their 3rd consecutive road game in a week span. ODU is 0-6 on the road this season losing by an average of 10 PPG and their defense is allowing 83 PPG away from home. They allowed 86 points last Thursday at Troy in a 13 point loss and then allowed 90 over the weekend vs Arkie State. The Monarchs rank 322nd in eFG% defense and 345th in 3 point FG% defense. That won’t cut it here vs a Georgia State team that is 4-1 at home and has scored at least 88 points in 4 of those 5 home games. The Panthers should have a nice advantage at the FT line as well with ODU allowing 21% of their opponents points to come from the charity stripe and GSU hitting 76% of their freebies on the season. The Monarchs continue to be overvalued covering only 3 of their 14 games this season and we project another spread loss here. Georgia State by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6.5 at Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - Utah is coming off a tough East coast road trip and two huge upset wins of the 76ers and Bucks. The Jazz benefited from facing a 76ers team without Joel Embiid and a Bucks team without Lillard. Those two victories will have the Nuggets on high alert and focused for this road date in Utah. Denver continues to play outstanding with an 8-2 SU record their last 10 games with 6 of those W’s coming by 6+ points. The Nuggets have been favored by -7.5 or more points in four straight meetings with the Jazz and have covered 3 of 4. A key advantage in this game for Denver will be in the turnover department. Denver turns the ball over the 2nd fewest times per game at 12.2 on the season while the Jazz turn it over more than any team in the league at 16.4 per game. The Nuggets are also one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 49.5% and the Jazz are 19th in opponents FG% against allowing 47.8%. Utah will have a tough time scoring here with the 25th worst shooting statistics in the league (46.2%) going up against a Denver D that holds opponents to 46.3% (10th). The Nuggets have won 6 straight road games, and we like them to get a win by a double-digit margin here.

#726 ASA PLAY ON 8* Ohio State -1 or -1.5 or Pick'em over Wisconsin, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - We really like this situation for the Buckeyes. They are coming off a loss @ Indiana on Saturday (we were on the Hoosiers) and this becomes a very important game for them with 3 of their last 4 games on the road. OSU is 2-2 in Big 10 play and can’t afford a home loss here. The Buckeyes are 8-1 at home this year with their only loss coming back in early November vs Texas A&M, a game that was close throughout with neither team leading by more than 7 points. The Badgers have been on a nice roll winning 10 of their last 11 and could be a bit overvalued on the road in this one. They’ve played only 3 true road games and lost 2 of those @ Providence and @ Arizona. They have not been on the road in over a month and now are about to get pulled out of their comfort zone. The Badgers have been outscored by an average of 68-75 in their road games while shooting under 40% from the field. OSU has won their home games by an average score of 78-62 while hitting 38% of their triples. That will be an issue here for a Wisconsin defense that hasn’t been very good defending the arc allowing almost 36% which is 282nd nationally. We like this Wisconsin team but we feel we’re catching them at the top of the market so to speak (overvalued) vs a desperate home team. At basically a pick-em type game, we’ll call for Ohio State to pick up the win on Wednesday.

#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -4 over Murray State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Missouri State is in a must win spot coming off 2 straight losses and with 2 road game on deck after this one. The Bears lost by 2 points here at home last week vs Northern Iowa (first home loss of the season) missing a 3 pointer at the buzzer that would have given them the win. After that loss they were flat as a pancake @ Bradley putting up their worst performance of the year losing by 26 as a 5 point underdog. Missouri State head coach Ford called it an “unacceptable” effort so you can bet the Bears will be all in effort wise in this one. Murray State steps in off 3 straight wins and will be playing their 2nd of back to back road games after upsetting Evansville on the road over the weekend. The Aces played without their leading scorer in that game and the prior to Murray State wins were both at home. Prior to that road win the Racers were 0-6 SU in road/neutral games this season. They had also lost 9 of their previous 10 games prior to their current 3 game winning streak. Because of that mini streak we’re getting value with Missouri State laying a small number at home. The Bears have a HUGE edge defensively in this game. They rank 14th nationally in eFG% defense and 12th in 3 point defense allowing opponents to hit only 27% of their shots from deep. Murray State, on the other hand, ranks outside the top 300 in eFG% defense, 2 point FG% defense, and 3 point FG% defense. These 2 split their games last year with the home team winning each. Murray State squeaked by at home by 3 points but when they traveled to Springfield the Bears rolled by 15 points. Expect a huge effort from Missouri State and an easy win.

ASA play on 8* Toronto Raptors +5 at LA Lakers, 10:30 PM ET - We will bet against the Lakers again as they are coming off a big win over the Clippers but are still 4-10 SU their last 14 games. The Lakers shot unusually well in win against the Clippers who shoot uncharacteristically poorly. The Clippers hit just 40% for the game which was well below their 48.7% season percentage. Now the Lakers are off that big win and have a date with the Phoenix Suns next. The Raptors are playing well since their trade with the Knicks with a 3-1 SU record in their last four games. They have impressive wins against the Cavs, at Memphis, a 5-point loss at Sacramento and a win against the Warriors. In their last five games the Raptors have a net point differential of +3.2PPG and four of those games were on the road. The Lakers +/- in their past five games is a negative -9.4PPG. The Lakers rank 28th in offensive rebounds per game while the Raptors rank 7th. We like their advantage on the O-boards and the second-chance opportunities it will present for Toronto. Grab the points.

#606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -5 over Texas, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Unranked home team (Cincinnati) favored over a ranked road game (Texas #25) is a situation where we often look at the home team. First of all, the Longhorns should not be ranked period. They are 11-3 on the season, they’ve played the 310th most difficult SOS and the Horns have beaten ONE team ranked inside the top 130 this season (beat LSU who is ranked 83rd per KenPom). On top of that, Texas has played one true road game this season and lost by 21 points @ Marquette in that one. The Bearcats have played the tougher schedule and have the better record at 12-2. Their only losses are vs Dayton and Xavier both ranked in the top 40. Cincy has some nice momentum after a win @ BYU on Saturday (top 10 team per KenPom) and they have won 25 of their last 28 games at Fifth Third Arena including 9-0 this year with all wins by double digits. The Horns have been overvalued all season long (4-10 ATS) and they are facing a Cincinnati defense that ranks in the top 40 in both defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Bearcats should also have a nice edge on the glass ranking 2nd in the nation in defensive rebounding and 9th in offensive rebounding. Lay it with Cincinnati.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -11 or 11.5 at Washington Wizards, 7 PM ET - Rarely will you find us on a double-digit road favorite but there are times you have to make exceptions to the rules which is the case tonight. Oklahoma City Thunder is an elite team in the NBA at 23-11 SU and a serious contender in the Western Conference. Washington is a dumpster fire at 6-29 SU and expect a roster shakeup before the trade deadline. OKC has lost two straight on the road and will bounce back here after a couple days of rest. The Thunder have the 2nd best average Margin of Victory on the road this season at +7.2PPG. The have the #1 defensive efficiency rating on the road allowing 1.095 points per possession and rank 9th in OEFF. Washington has the WORST average road differential in the NBA at minus -12PPG. They rate 24th in offensive efficiency and 30th or last in DEFF. The Thunder are the 2nd best overall shooting team in the NBA and the Wiz are 29th in overall FG% defense. OKC is 1st in 3PT% offense and the Wizards are 23rd in defending the 3-point line. With Oklahoma City off a pair of losses we expect them to be focused here with a big road effort.

#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Like this spot for the Hoosiers coming off a road loss on Wednesday night @ Nebraska. Not a bad loss by any means vs a Husker team that is 12-2 on the season and playing at a high level. We now get Indiana at home as an underdog vs an OSU team that has played a fairly weak slate thus far. The Buckeyes have played 1 true road game this year in their 14 games and they lost that game @ Penn State who KenPom has ranked as the only Big 10 team ranked outside the top 100. The Buckeyes have had back to back down to the wire wins vs West Virginia (the lowest rated team in the Big 12) with OSU winning in OT and then on Wednesday they struggled to get by Rutgers (won by 4) the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 10. The Hoosiers have only 1 loss at home this year and that was by 4 points vs a Kansas team ranked #2 in the country. In that game IU led by as many as 13 points in the 2nd half and trailed for less than 4:00 minutes the entire game. Indiana is a very good shooting game ranking 31st nationally in FG% and they have been even better at home putting up 78 PPG on over 50% shooting. OSU has a solid 12-2 record but we mentioned their SOS which is more than 100 spots lower than Indiana and the Bucks have won only 1 of their last 11 Big 10 road games dating back to the start of last season. The Hoosier are a home dog to a team they beat by 16 here at Assembly Hall last season as a 5 point favorite. IU should be favored in this game but we’re getting a solid value play with the Hoosiers coming off a loss vs an OSU team that isn’t as good as their record might indicate. Indiana is the play.

#674 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arkansas State -8 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Arkansas State is much better than their 5-9 record in our opinion. They’ve only played 3 home games this season and 11 road/neutral games. They’ve also played a tough schedule already facing Wisconsin, Iowa, Alabama and Belmont all on the road. They finally played a home game on Thursday and rolled Georgia Southern 109-83. The Red Wolves are very good offensive team averaging 78 PPG and at home in their 3 games they’ve averaged over 90 PPG. That could be a problem for an ODU team that averages 70 PPG and was just smoked on the road on Thursday night 86-73 by Troy. It wasn’t as close as the final score as Troy led that game by 26 points midway through the 2nd half before ODU made a late run. The Monarchs were without their top 2 scorers in that game, Jenkins & Allette, who combined to average 30 PPG and we’re guessing they may not play here. Jenkins is dealing with a knee injury and Allette has an illness and just 2 days removed from their last game and on the road again it’s highly possible neither will play and if they do they won’t be close to 100%. Old Dominion is 0-5 SU this season in their 5 true road games with their defense allowing 82 PPG and nearly 40% for 3 point land in those roadies. Not a great recipe vs an Arkansas State team that hits almost 45% of their 3’s at home. This one could get ugly. Lay it with Arkie State.

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic +9.5 at Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Nuggets and back the Magic. Denver is off a huge last second win last night in Golden State and will have a tough time getting back up for the Magic tonight. The Nuggets came back from 18-points down in the final 7-minutes to win and expended a ton of energy in that comeback win. Orlando is rested and coming off a most recent loss in Sacramento by 3-points in OT. The Magic have lost 3 straight road games at the Kings, Warriors and Suns. They were plus +6-points against the Kings and Suns and catch an inflated number here. Not only are the Nuggets playing the second night of a back to back but they are also playing their 5th game in nine days. Denver has a winning record of 11-9 ATS when playing without rest but their average margin of victory is only +1.2PPG. In their last 8 road games the Magic have just 2 losses by more than 9-points. Easy call here with the Underdog.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors +3 vs Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - This is a quick rematch between these two teams as they recently met in Denver on Christmas Day. There was some controversy after the game as Warriors coach Steve Kerr had issues with Nuggets Center Jokic attempting 18 free throws by himself. That game went down to the wire with the Nuggets holding on for a home win by 6-points as a -7.5-point favorite. With that said this line should be a pick’em based off the number of the previous meeting. This has been a tightly contested series with 7 of the last eight meetings all decided by 6-points or less. The Warriors are coming off a win at home over the Magic and the encouraging news for the Warriors is that Klay Thompson is starting to find his stroke again. Thompson was 6 of 11 against the Magic and is a huge factor in the Warriors offense. In the game against the Nuggets he was 3 of 12 from the field. The Warriors are the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA and the Nuggets allow the 17th most. Golden State has a positive home point differential and is 9-6 SU on their home court with an impressive win over the Celtics recently. Denver has won 5 straight on the road but those W’s didn’t come against great competition (Hornets, Nets, Raptors, Bulls, Hawks). Grab the points with GST.

#802 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan -6 over Minnesota, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting Michigan at the bottom of the market so to speak, laying only 6 points. Last year the Wolverines were favored by 12.5 at home vs Minnesota so some solid value here. The reason Michigan is laying a low number here is they’ve lost 2 straight and 5 of their last 7. However, all of those 5 losses were vs top 100 teams (Oregon, Indiana, Texas Tech, Florida, and McNeese State) and 3 of those 5 were by 3 points or fewer or in OT. Their most recent loss was at home vs a very good McNeese State team and don’t let the name fool you. They are very good and actually rated higher than tonight’s opponent, Minnesota, per KenPom. To put this point spread perspective, the Wolverines were favored by 10.5 last Friday vs McNeese State and now they are favored by just 6 (opening number) vs a Minnesota team who is ranked lower than McNeese as we discussed. This is a must win at home for Michigan as they have 2 road games following this game. Tough competition has been the theme for Michigan this year as they’ve played a very tough schedule (22nd SOS) which has a lot to do with their 6-7 record. They have solid top 100 wins over St John’s, Iowa, and Stanford this season. Minnesota has a better record, but only 1 top 100 win at home vs Nebraska. The Gophs have played a brutally easy schedule (358th SOS) and they’ve been at home for a full month. Only 2 of their 13 games this season have been road games (San Francisco & Ohio State) and the Gophers lost both of those games by double digits. Both teams have shot the ball very well (both top 25 in eFG%) but Michigan has only faced one defense ranked outside the top 250 in efficiency and 6 defenses ranked in the top 100. Compare that to the Gophers who’ve already faced 8 defenses ranked outside the top 250 on the season which is 62% of their games on the year. We like the home team in must win mode.

ASA play on 8* Sacramento Kings -5.5 vs Orlando Magic, 10 PM ET - The Magic are in a tough scheduling situation here after coming off a huge game against the Golden State Warriors last night. Not only that, but they are also playing their 3rd game in four nights and 6th game in nine days, which rarely happens. Fatigue is certainly going to be a factor in Sacramento where the Kings are home and rested. Sacramento has won 2 straight road games, but their most recent home game was a loss to the T’Wolves. We expect Sacto to bounce back here at home where they are 11-5 SU this season. Orlando is 7-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -4.9PPG. Going into their game against the Warriors the Magic are 2-6 SU their previous 8 road games and all of those losses came by 4+ points. Orlando has some offensive deficiencies including shooting it at 47.3% which is 15th in the NBA. The Kings have the 9th best home offensive efficiency rating in the NBA and average 121.8PPG on their home floor. The Magic are 3-16 SU their last nineteen games when playing without rest and they lose those games by an average of -9.8PPG. Easy call on the Kings here.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +2 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Thunder are in a tough scheduling situation here after coming off a huge game against the Boston Celtics last night. Not only that, but they are also playing their 3rd game in four nights and 6th game in nine days. Fatigue is certainly going to be a factor in Atlanta where the Hawks are home and rested. Atlanta is 1-4 SU their last five games but did win their most recent game in Washington. The Hawks have Jalen Johnson back in the starting lineup and now become a deeper team. We are expecting the Hawks to get plenty of extra field goal attempts with the 2nd best offensive rebounding team going up against an OKC team that 29th in defensive rebounding. The Thunder are 28th in rebounding overall while the Hawks are 19th. The Thunder put everything into their game last night against the league leading Celtics and will have little left in the tank to face the rested Hawks.

#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -2 over Loyola Chicago, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Billikens have one of the better home court advantages on the Atlantic 10. They are 6-1 this year in Chaifetz Arena with their only loss coming by 5 points vs a Utah State team that has a record of 13-1 on the season. Going back further, St Louis has won 30 of their last 35 home games. They played only 2 home games in December and beat Hofstra and Louisiana Tech, both rated higher than this Loyola team. With this line set at pick-em (opening number) we just need a win here from the Billikens. St Louis is coming off a loss @ NC State on December 20th and they’ve had 2 weeks off to get rested and ready. Loyola has the better record in this game, 8-5 compared to 7-6 for STL, however they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. The Ramblers strength of schedule is outside the top 300 and 5 of their 8 wins have come vs teams rated outside the top 300. They’ve played only 2 true road games this season and lost both by double digits @ Tulsa and @ South Florida, 2 teams rated very similar to this St Louis team. While Loyola has played only 3 games all season vs teams ranked inside the top 100, St Louis has played 5 of their last 6 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100. One key advantage for the host in this game is the Billikens 3 point shooting (53rd nationally in 3 point FG%) vs a Loyola defense ranked 277th defending the arc. At home STL’s shooting gets even better where they’ve hit 42% of their triples. They also get to the line a lot and make them when they get there (76% from the FT line). St Louis was favored by -11 at home vs Loyola last year (won by 19) and now we’re getting just slightly above a pick-em. Value on St Louis at home in this one.

#652 ASA TOP PLAY ON Colorado State -3 or -3.5 over New Mexico, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - CSU comes into this game with a 12-1 SU record with their only loss coming by 3 points vs St Mary’s. In that loss the Rams played without 2 key starters, Lake & Strong, and still nearly beat a solid STM team. Lake has since returned and while Strong is still out, the Rams have adapted having now played 5 games with him on the shelf. They have only 1 loss despite playing a very tough schedule (53rd SOS) and they have 5 wins vs top 100 teams including wins over Colorado and Creighton (top 25 teams). CSU is a fantastic offensive team averaging 85 PPG while ranking 3rd nationally in eFG%, 11th in offensive efficiency and they make 77% of the FT’s. They’ve been held under 80 points only twice this season! New Mexico is also 12-1 on the year but overvalued in our opinion. The Lobos have played a much easier schedule (197th SOS) and this will be just their 3rd road game of the season. Their 2 roadies weren’t overly impressive as they lost big @ St Mary’s and barely beat a NM State, who has a current 6-9 record, on the road by 1 point. New Mexico relies heavily on creating turnovers which won’t work in this one vs a veteran CSU team that turns the ball over just 13.9% of the time (16th nationally). Because of that aggressiveness on defense, the Lobos also foul a lot which will be a problem in this game vs a very good FT shooting team. These 2 MWC teams split last year with each home team winning. The Lobos have lost 5 straight @ Colorado State and we’ll call for 6 in a row tonight. The Rams win and cover at home.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams come into this game red hot with the Celtics on an 11-1 SU run their last twelve games while OKC is 7-1 SU their last eight games. Boston has the 2nd best average margin of victory at +10.2PPG but the Thunder are 3rd at +7.7PPG and OKC has faced a slightly tougher schedule. On a neutral court we would have Boston favored by -3.1 points, so the value is clearly on the Thunder at home where they are 13-5 SU this season +8.4PPG. Looking at recent Thunder games and we see they were recently favored by 2-points at home over Minnesota and minus -6.5-points home vs. the Clippers. The Celtics were recently favored by 4 and 5-points at the Lakers and Clippers and should not be laying points here. Boston lives and dies with the 3-ball as they rank 1st in the NBA in attempts and makes but rank 11th in 3PT%. OKC defends the 3-point line well, ranking 10th in 3PT% defense. The Thunder are the leagues best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and the Celtics are 14th in defending the Arc. That 3-point advantage will be key tonight in what shapes up to be a 1-possession game either way. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* #572 Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs NY Knicks, 7:10 PM ET - We like the Pacers here as the Knicks are in a tough scheduling situation with this being the second night of a back-to-back. Not only are they playing without rest, but this will also be their 3rd game in four days, 4th game in six days. Now they must face the second fastest paced team in the NBA who is rested and at home. Indiana played extremely well going into the in-season tournament but came back to Earth immediately afterwards. They have seemed to have found their groove again with a pair of wins on the road at Houston and Chicago. New York is 9-9 SU on the road this season with a negative overall differential. Indiana is 8-7 SU at home with an average +/- of plus 6.7PPG. The key advantage the Pacers have is their transition offense which averages the most fastbreak points in the league compared to a Knicks team that allows the 20th most. Lay it with Indiana.

#850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -8 over East Tennessee State, Friday at 7 PM ET - ETSU is one of the worst offensive teams in the country. They are a bad shooting team making just 39% of their shots on the year (352nd) and they hit only 30% of their triples so far this season (308th). They have one player in their rotation that has hit better than 42% of their shots this season and only 2 players that have made more than 32% of their 3’s. On the road it’s worse. They have a 1-5 SU record away from home and they are averaging only 63 PPG on the road while making 38% of their FG attempts. They are facing an ECU team that has 7 wins at home this season while averaging 77 PPG in their own arena. The Pirates do have 3 losses at home this season but 2 of those came with 2nd leading scorer and top rebounder Johnson out with an injury. Their only loss at home while at full strength was vs South Carolina and that was a tight loss 68-62, a game ECU led with less than 4:00 minutes remaining. Their only other loss since November was vs Florida and that was another close one losing 70-65. The Pirates should have a nice advantage at the charity stripe as they get to the line often (95th in percentage of points from the FT line) and ETSU fouls a lot averaging 21 fouls per game (29th most in the nation). ECU has 80% of their minutes back from last season and they’ve added 2 key transfers from Kansas & LSU. ETSU has won only 9 of their last 35 road games and we like the Pirates to roll at home in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors are playing better of late with wins in 5 of their last six games. The lone loss in that stretch was their most recent game on Christmas Day in Denver. Golden State has won 8 straight at home including an impressive win over the Boston Celtics. The Warriors last five games numbers are significantly better than their overall numbers on the season. In their last five games they have an offensive efficiency rating of 1.237-points per possession and a DEFF of 1.167PPP. Miami has some solid road numbers including a 9-6 SU record and a +2.8PPG differential. The Heat though have played the 27th easiest schedule to date compared to the Warriors who have faced the 3rd toughest. Going back to the start of last season, the Warriors are 36-25 ATS at home with an average margin of victory of +6.1PPG. Miami is off a big upset win in Philly on Christmas Day and now travels across the country to face a motivated Warriors team as Miami won the most recent meeting last season so this is a revenge spot for the Warriors. Lay the short number.

#711 ASA PLAY ON UC Santa Barbara -2 over UC Davis, Friday at 9 PM ET - Both teams have had a full week plus off entering this game so both should be healthy and rested. UCSB is 7-3 on the season but that is a deceiving record as 2 of their 3 losses came with PG Mitchell, a potential first round draft choice, out with an injury. With Mitchell in the line up the Gauchos are 7-1 with their lone loss coming @ New Mexico who currently has an 11-1 record and the Lobos are a top 35 team per KenPom. Mitchell is averaging 20 PPG while shooting 52% from the field, 47% from beyond the arc, and 88% from the FT line. He and the Gauchos should have a field day offensively vs a UC Davis team that ranks outside the top 300 in 2 point FG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. UCSB is hitting 51% of their shots this season (7th nationally), 38.5% of their 3’s (30th nationally) and averaging 83 PPG. While Santa Barbara is averaging 83 PPG, UC Davis has scored more than 83 points just once this season vs Jessup College. Davis is 5-6 on the year with 2 wins vs non Division 1 opponents (Jessup & California Merced) and their 3 other wins all came vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They’ve faced 4 teams ranked inside the top 200 (UCSB is 140th) and the Aggies lost all of those games by double digits. UCSB has dominated this Big West series winning 7 straight meetings and 4 of those games were @ UC Davis. Lay the small number here.

ASA play on 8* Minnesota Timberwolves -9.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - These two teams come into this game in very different situations as the Wolves have been off for a few days and is off an embarrassing loss in Oklahoma City. Dallas is playing their 4th game in seven days, 3rd in four and 2nd of a back-to-back. When playing with rest advantage the Wolves are 21-10-1 ATS their last thirty-two with a +/- of +7.2PPG. Dallas is 8-10-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season when playing without rest. If you are thinking this line is too high, it’s really not. Minnesota was just favored by -2-points in Dallas which actually makes this number a little light. Minnesota has the 3rd best average home differential in the NBA at +11.9PPG and they’ve won 12 of 13 at home this season. 8 of their twelve home wins have come by double-digits. Given the circumstances we will lay the points in this one against a fatigued Mavs team.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 vs NY Knicks, 8 PM ET - We are not concerned about the Thunder playing last night as they were able to give extended minutes to several bench players. OKC had a remarkable shooting night at 60% against the best defensive team in the NBA and now face a Knicks team that is average in that regard. New York allows opponents to make 47.5% of their FG attempts which ranks 18th in the league. One key advantage the Thunder have here is their 3-point shooting as they have the 2nd best 3PT percentage in the NBA at 38.6%. The Knicks allow foes to hit 37.3% which is 19th worst in the league. The Knicks are average in most key offensive categories and the Thunder hold the 2nd best FG% defense and are 12th in defending the 3-point line. This line is a bargain considering the Thunder were just favored by 2-points against the T-Wolves, -3.5 vs. the Lakers and -6.5 vs. the Clippers who all grade out higher than the Knicks. OKC has a positive differential of +7PPG at home this season and should get a win by that margin here.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8 PM ET - We really liked this game when it opened at -3.5 but there is still value at the current number with New Orleans. These same two teams just met on this court last week with Memphis winning by 2-points on a Ja Morant game winner. The Pelicans were favored by -8.5-points in that game, hence the value here. It’s a great situation to back New Orleans as they are off a home loss to the Rockets while Memphis has won 3 straight since the return of Morant. The Grizzlies upset this Pelicans team, then won at home against a Pacers team that is trending down, then beat a Hawks team that is 3-8 their last eleven. New Orleans is a solid home team with a 33-23 ATS record and a plus/minus of +4.6PPG dating back to the start of last season. Memphis is 22-36 ATS on the road since the start of last year with a +/- of -3.8PPG. With the quick turnaround between these two teams we like the situation and scheduling to back the Pelicans at home.

ASA Top Play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs Golden State Warriors – 2:30 PM ET - This Warriors team is not your Warriors team from the past. The aging roster is catching up to them and we don’t see them as a relevant contender this season in the West. Denver on the other hand has the best starting five in the NBA and clearly are one of the favorites to win it all this season. Denver doesn’t lose very often at home with a 71.1% winning percentage at home since the start of the 2020 season. Since the start of last season the Nuggets are 55-10 SU with an average +/- of +10PPG. Golden State has really struggled on the road the past two season with a 18-43 SU record and a loss margin of minus -3.6PPG. Denver has won 4 straight in the series, including a 3-point win earlier this season at home. Denver owns the 8th best 3-point percentage defense in the NBA and can limit Curry and Crew from Deep. Lay the points.

#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Mary’s -12.5 over Missouri State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - St Mary’s has been a completely different team at home compared to on the road. We were on the Gaels last Saturday when they beat UNLV by 2 points on a neutral court in Phoenix but failed to cover the 6 point spread. Since that game they have played 2 home games winning by a combined score of 163-90 vs two solid opponents, Middle Tennessee State and Northern Kentucky. STM did have a rare home loss back in November vs Weber State in a game they blew a 16 point second half lead. They are 6-0 in their other 6 home games winning all by at least 13 points. The Gaels have won 5 straight games including a very impressive win @ Colorado State who is currently ranked 30th in the nation per KenPom. In their one home game vs a similar rated opponent, STM beat a very good Davidson team by 34 points as an 11 point favorite (Davidson is ranked 115th and tonight’s opponent Missouri State is ranked 116th). This is a fantastic defensive team ranking 12th nationally in efficiency allowing only 0.92 PPP and they are allowing only 53 PPG at home. The Gaels have struggled away from home offensively but when playing in University Credit Union Pavilion, where they’ve won 40 of their last 43 games, they are averaging nearly 80 PPG this season. Missouri State topped Lindenwood by 22 points at home on Tuesday (we were on Mizzou St) and now make the long trip to the west coast. The Bears have played 4 road games this season and lost all 4 averaging only 64 PPG (in regulation) in those losses. Now facing the best defense they’ve seen this year, we don’t expect much offensively from MSU. The Bears have faced only one top 100 team this season and lost that game by 17 points vs Drake. St Mary’s will be the best team Missouri State has faced this season and we look for an easy win for the home team.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +4.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 7:40 PM ET - We are grabbing the value with the Nets here at home plus the points. These two teams recently met in Denver where the Nuggets were favored by -9-points. That means this line should be Denver minus 1 or 2 points. The Nets were in the middle of a tough road stretch and were playing the second night of a back-to-back in altitude. They shot horribly at 41% overall and made just 8 of 30 3-point attempts. The Nuggets were just favored by this same spread in Toronto who we grade slightly worse than Brooklyn. The Nuggets road numbers aren’t great at 7-8 SU with an average point differential of minus -0.4PPG. Brooklyn is 8-5 SU at home with the 12th best average margin of victory at +6.8PPG. We like the Nets to get a bit of revenge here from that recent loss in Denver. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 vs LA Clippers, 8 PM ET - The Clippers trade for Harden seems to be working out as they’ve won 9 games in a row, including a road win last night in Dallas. L.A. is now playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back in OKC. The Thunder have been off since the 18th and they’ve won 6 of their last eight games. The Thunder are coming off two straight impressive wins in Denver and at home against Memphis by 19-points. Oklahoma City is winning at home by an average of +7.3PPG which is the 10th best number in the NBA. When playing without rest the Clippers are 7-12 SU since the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -3.1PPG. The Clippers typically beat teams by shooting a high percentage but that will be tough to do tonight against an OKC team that is 2nd in opponents FG% overall and 9th in defending the 3-point line. The Thunder also shoot it just as well as the Clippers from beyond the arc (4th) and overall (4th). The scheduling clearly favors the Thunder at home.

#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas Little Rock -2.5 over Jacksonville State, Thursday at 3 PM ET - This is a really good situational spot for UALR. They are playing their 3rd straight home game and haven’t been on the road since December 7th. After a rough 1-5 start, Little Rock has turned the corner winning 5 of their last 7 games and 5 of their last 6 at home. They are catching Jacksonville State in a tough spot. The Gamecocks play @ Wisconsin last Thursday, then traveled to Texas on Monday to face Tarleton State, and now a few days later they are on the road in Arkansas to play an afternoon game. JSU is coming off an upset win @ Tarleton State on Monday winning by 3 as a 4.5 point dog. They trailed for most of the game in that win (down 12 with 9:00 minutes remaining) and took their first lead of the 2nd half with barely over 2:00 minutes remaining. They still were down with under 40 seconds left before pulling out the win. Now traveling again after that come from behind win could be tough for JSU today. UALR has played well at home with a 6-2 SU & ATS mark so far this season. They are averaging 82 PPG at home with a +7 PPG point differential. They are hitting 49% of their shots at home this season and nearly 40% of their triples. They will be facing a fatigued JSU offense that simply isn’t a very good shooting team that ranks 266th in eFG% and makes less than 30% of their 3’s. We’ll lay the small number with the home team on Thursday afternoon.

#687 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -2.5 over Oklahoma, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This isn’t a true home game for UNC but it’s being played in Charlotte so the crowd will be heavily in favor of the Heels. They are sort of in must win mode coming off back to back losses vs UConn and Kentucky, both on neutral courts. Those aren’t the only 2 high level teams UNC has played this year as their strength of schedule ranks 21st in the country per KenPom. They have solid wins vs Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida State. The Sooners are undefeated but they’ve played an ultra easy slate ranking 336th in SOS. They have played 7 home games and just 3 neutral site games. This will be the closest thing to a true road game Oklahoma has played this season. Half of their opponents this season currently rank 295th or lower while North Carolina hasn’t played a single team ranked that low and more than half of their games (6) have come vs teams inside the top 100. The Sooners have very good overall defensive numbers, however we need to account for their weak schedule when sifting through that. They have faced only 3 offenses currently ranked inside the top 100 in efficiency and the average offensive efficiency of the 10 teams they’ve faced is 202nd. Now they take on a Tar Heel team that ranks 9th in the country in offensive efficiency and is averaging 85 PPG on the season. Offensively, Oklahoma has put up some big numbers at home this year (vs mainly poor competition) but in their 3 games away from home (all neutral court) they’ve been held below their PPP season average. That was vs 3 defensive teams (Iowa, Arkansas, and USC) who’s defensive efficiency numbers are not as good as this UNC team. We feel this is just a really good spot for Carolina needing a win after a few losses vs a team that has padded their early season record vs a poor SOS. Lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -3 vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:10 PM ET - We have admittedly been slow to get on the Rockets bandwagon but will side with them tonight at home against the Hawks. If you haven’t been paying attention, the Rockets are 11-1 SU at home and the only loss came back in the first week of the season to Golden State. They have beaten some of the best teams in the league at home including: the Kings (twice) Lakers, Pelicans, Nuggets (twice) and Thunder. Houston’s average Margin of Victory at home is 4th best in the NBA at +12.8PPG. The Hawks have OK road numbers with an average MOV of +0.5PPG and a 6-6 SU record but most recently they’ve struggled with a 2-6 SU record in their last eight road contests. Their last four road wins have come against teams with losing records with 2 of those coming at the Spurs and at Washington, two of the worst teams in the league. Houston is coming off a 3-game road stint with a win in Memphis and two tightly contested losses in Milwaukee and Cleveland. Atlanta has been a fade team all season long with a 6-20 ATS record while the Rockets are 16-7-1 ATS. We expect that trend to continue tonight and will back Houston.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -4 at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 PM ET - Toronto used to have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA but that hasn’t been the case this season. The Raptors are 8-7 SU with an average point differential of +1.4PPG. In their last five games at home, they have a pair of unimpressive wins against poor teams such as Charlotte and Atlanta and losses to good teams Miami and New York. Toronto is just 3-4 SU at home against teams with a current winning record. Denver is not a deep team but their starting five is as good as anyone in the NBA. They recently went through a stretch of games without PG Murray but he’s back now and the Nuggets have won 4 of their last five games. Denver has played the 8th toughest schedule yet still has an average point differential of +4.8PPG which is 7th highest in the league. Toronto has faced a much weaker schedule, and their net point differential is -1.7PPG. These two teams are relatively even in defensive efficiency, but the Nuggets hold a big advantage when it comes to offensive efficiency, averaging 1.185PPP compared to the Raptors 1.133PPP. At this price we will back the World Champs minus the points.

#630 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -17.5 over Lindenwood, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Like this spot for Mizzou State as they enter this game having lost 3 of their last 4 games so should be fully focused on rolling over this bad Lindenwood team. The Bears most recent game was a 1 point loss @ Tulsa, a game they led by 10 with 5:00 minutes remaining. All 4 of MSU’s losses this year have come on the road (7-4 overall record) and their home winning margin is +13.5 PPG. Three of their four home opponents were ranked inside the top 200 while Lindenwood is currently ranked 333rd (out of 362). Lindenwood is also in a tough spot coming off a rare road win @ IUPUI who is ranked 359th or the 4th worst team in the country. The Lions were 0-4 on the road coming into that game vs a terrible IUPUI team and they lost those 4 games by an average margin of -28 PPG. Lindenwood has now won only 3 of their last 21 road games dating back to the start of last year and 13 of those losses have come by double digits. They are bad on both ends of the court ranking 343rd in offensive efficiency and 285th in defensive efficiency. The Lions are a poor offensive team that averages only 60 PPG on the road this season and they rank outside the top 300 in FG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. They are facing a Missouri State defense that has been outstanding 14th in the nation in eFG% defense and top 35 in both 2 point FG and 3 point FG percentage defense. On offense the Bears are averaging 85 PPG at home and hitting nearly 49% of their shots. Now facing a Lindenwood defense that allows over 80 PPG on the road. This one should be a blowout.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets +7 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade Milwaukee and back a red hot Rockets team. Houston has won 5 straight games and that includes a pair of wins over OKC and Denver. This Rockets team is tenacious defensively ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.082 points per possession. In comparison the Bucks rank 23rd. The Bucks have won three straight and 8 of their last ten but take a look at who they’ve played. Milwaukee has not faced a defense of this caliber since November 22nd at Boston and they lost by 3-points. In their last ten games the Bucks have faced 8 teams that rank in the bottom third of the NBA in total defense. Milwaukee has played THE easiest schedule in the NBA, the Rockets have faced the 12th toughest. Grab the points with Houston.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -2 or -2.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - The Hawks are in a tough scheduling situation here having played and won in Toronto on Friday night. This will be the second night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four nights. Cleveland has lost 4 straight games, but they’ve come against Miami, Orlando and Boston twice. The Cavs suffered a blow in their last game, losing PG Garland for the foreseeable future with a jaw injury. But LeVert is more than capable of filling in for Garland and also expect Donovan Mitchell to step up to the task. The Hawks hold the offensive advantage, but the Cavs are that much better defensively ranking 8th in defensive efficiency compared to the Hawks at 28th. With this low number we are basically just asking the Cavs to win this game outright and they are 38-18 SU at home since the start of last season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.8PPG. Atlanta is 25-33 SU their last 58 road games with a negative differential of minus -1.1PPG. Atlanta playing without rest is 5-12 SU their last 17, minus -2.4PPG. Let’s back the shorthanded Cavs at home in desperation mode.

#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Mary’s -5 over UNLV, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Phoenix, Arizona. We’re getting some value with St Mary’s at this point in the season mainly because their record is just 5-5. Let’s keep in mind they’ve played a brutally tough schedule thus far (16th SOS) and 4 of their 5 losses have come vs teams currently sitting in the top 75 per KenPom. The Gaels return 3 starters and 70% of their minutes from a team that was 27-8 last season and beat VCU in round 1 of the NCAA tourney before losing to eventual National Champions UConn. STM has now had a full week off and has some solid momentum after beating an undefeated Colorado State team on the road last Saturday. That was a CSU team that had 5 top 100 wins already this season including W’s vs Washington, Creighton, and Colorado. Impressive win for St Mary’s to go on the road and beat that team. Saturday they are facing a UNLV team that is coming off a gigantic home win on Wednesday vs Creighton and now traveling just a few days after that win. The Rebels hit 52% of their shots in that game and 45% from deep. The Jays, normally a great shooting team, had an off night 8 of their 29 three point attempts. That was an aberration in our opinion as UNLV is NOT a good defensive team. They rank outside the top 300 in eFG% allowed and are near the bottom of college basketball defending the arc (343rd). St Mary’s should have a huge edge defensive as they rank 23rd nationally in defensive efficiency. The Gaels should also dominate the glass ranking 21st nationally in offensive rebounding facing a UNLV team that ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The Rebs have only played 3 teams currently ranked inside the top 100 and lost 2 of those. St Mary’s will be the 2nd highest rated team UNLV has played this season. Lay the small number with the Gaels

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6 vs. Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - These same two team met in Orlando in late November with the Celtics favored by -5.5-points. The Magic pulled the upset 113-96 when the C’s shot poorly at 41% while the Magic shot above their average at 51%. If Boston was a road favorite of -5.5-points they should be a larger favorite at home where they are 11-0 with an average margin of Victory of plus +15.9PPG. Orlando is 11-2 SU their last 13 games but 8 of those came at home. Their last two road games have been losses by 10 and 28-points. Boston has a big advantage from beyond the arc as the Magic shoot just 34.3% from Deep which ranks 26th in the NBA. Boston is the 13th best FG% shooting team in the NBA and rank 16th from the 3-point line. These two teams are very even defensively but the C’s are much better offensively ranking 7th in OEFF compared to the Magic who rank 18th. Lay the points.

ASA play on 8* LA Clippers -6 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10:40 PM ET - Don’t look now but the Clippers seem to be figuring things out with James Harden. L.A. has won 5 straight games, including a victory over his same Warriors team. In that most recent meeting on this same court the Warriors had Draymond Green in the lineup who scored 21-points and grabbed 9 rebounds. Green is suspended and will miss tonight’s contest. Golden State as a whole continues to struggle as Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins are REALLY struggling with their shooting. In their last game against the Suns, those two combined to go 3 of 17 from the field, 2 of 11 from beyond the arc. Going back to the start of last season the Warriors road record is 17-42 SU with a negative differential of minus -3.7PPG. In that same time frame the Clippers are 32-23 SU +2.4PPG. In comparing these two teams statistics in their last five games we see that Los Angeles is playing much better ranking 5th in defensive efficiency compared to the Warriors ranking 13th. Offensively the Clippers rank 11th in OEFF, the Warriors are 17th (last five games). The home team has won 8 straight in this rivalry and we are betting the Clippers continue that streak with a 10-point win.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 vs Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - We are making this wager with the assumption that Kevin Durant will be in the lineup tonight against his former team. These team have very similar efficiency stats with the Suns allowing 1.149 points per possession compared to the Warriors 1.146PPP. Offensively the Suns rank 9th in OEFF, the Warriors are 13th. This is difficult to comprehend but the Warriors currently rank 25th in the NBA in shooting at 45.2% and hit 36.7% from beyond the Arc which is 13th and well below the Warriors standards. Golden State will have a hard time shooting it tonight against a Suns team that is 9th best in opponents FG% overall and 6th defending the 3-point line. Phoenix is the 3rd best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and 15th overall at 47.5%. The Warriors do defend the 3 well allowing just 34.2% but with the potential return of Bradley Beal it will be tough to defend all the shooters the Suns can run at them. Two of the Warriors cornerstone scorers are really struggling right now as Wiggins and Thompson can’t seem to find their shooting stokes. The Suns have beaten this Warriors team twice already this season including an 8-point win on this floor in late November.

#617 ASA TOP PLAY ON Oral Roberts +13 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - ORU is a very good mid major program coming off a 30-5 record a year ago. They did lose some players off that team but still have 2 solid starters back and we have the power rated as the 2nd best team in the Summit League. Their head coach from last season moved onto Wichita State but ORU hired his head assistant so the systems are still in place. They have played 2 high level Power 6 teams to the wire on the road this season losing at Texas A&M by 8 and at Kansas State in OT. The Golden Eagles have tested themselves early playing the 35th most difficult schedule (KenPom SOS ratings) and they won’t be intimidated here. Texas Tech has a new head coach (from North Texas), new systems, and they’ve overhauled nearly their entire roster from last season. The Red Raiders have a big game on deck Saturday vs SEC’s Vanderbilt so they might be peaking ahead to that game. They aren’t a great shooting team ranking 151st in eFG% and they struggle from beyond the arc hitting only 32%. Tech also lost one of their top players for the season, Devan Cambridge (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG), to a season ending injury in their most recent game. Oral Roberts can make 3’s (over 10 per game ranking 15th nationally) and they turn the ball over at a mere 13% rate (11th nationally). They have the ingredients to make this a very dangerous game for Texas Tech. This ORU program has lost a TOTAL of 4 regular season games by more than 10 points since the start of the 2021 season. Take the points here.