ASA NBA play on OVER 210.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat, 7:30pm ET The Cavs have put up 121, 121 and 124 points in the three games of this series against the Heat and they’ve done that without Garland for one game and Donovan Mitchell scoring just 13 points. Clearly the Heat just don’t match up with the Cavs and doesn’t have any answers on how to slow them down. Cleveland has an Offensive Rating of 134.1 against Miami and an EFG% of 61.5%, both best of all playoff teams. Those numbers aren’t overly shocking as the Cavs ranked #1 in both of those stat categories during the regular season too. The Heat produced 100 and 112 in the first two games of this series, then hit just 42% from the field in Game 3 and scored just 87-points. It’s unlikely that the Heat score just 23 or less points in four quarters again like they did last time out. In all 6 meetings between these two teams this season they have produced 211 or more points. Bet Over.

Rotation #201241/201242 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals – Verona vs Cagliari, Monday at 2:45 ET -Smaller rated play here (non-top) as there is a price to lay to have the under 2.5 here but it should prove well worth it. We expect both clubs to struggle offensively and would be surprised to see both clubs score. Even if they did it could still very well end up a 1-1 draw here. There is just not enough firepower with each club here and this has been further complicated by some health and suspension issues impacting this match. Cagliari is missing their top scorer due to suspension and it looks like Verona will continue to be without theirs as well. Each of the last 3 meetings between these two has totaled 2 or less goals. 5 straight Verona matches (and 12 of 15) have totaled 2 or less goals. We expect that run reaches 6 straight here! We will take the under here.

#979/980 ASA PLAY ON OVER 8.5 (+100) in San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday @ 4:10 ET - There has not been much scoring in the first two games of this series but the total today is set at 8.5 runs with good reason.  Zach Littell has lost 6 straight starts dating back to last season.  The Rays hurler is 0-5 this season with a 5.28 ERA and he has given up 7 homers in just 16 innings over his last 3 starts.  Giving up an average of 1 long ball nearly every 2 innings is certainly not a good sign!  As for the San Diego starter, Randy Vasquez is quite the story early this season in terms of statistical anomaly.  He has a respectable 3.97 ERA in his 5 starts this season but it is a miracle his ERA is that low.  He has 17 walks against only 9 strikeouts in his 22 and 2/3 innings on the season.  Last season opponents hit .304 against him and Vasquez is showing signs now of unraveling this season too as well.  After giving up 7 hits in 5 innings but avoiding major damage 2 starts ago, the last start finally saw Vasquez get hammered.  He allowed 6 earned runs in a start lasting just 2 innings at Detroit.  With 4 straight wins and scoring 19 runs in those games, the Rays' confidence is up.  Even though the Padres have suddenly struggled, they entered this series with a 12-1 record at home on the season and averaged 5 runs per game at home.  San Diego's lineup takes advantage of facing Littell here and gets rolling again early in this one.  Both starting pitchers are likely to struggle here and even though two good bullpens are involved in this one, the Padres bullpen in particular has already seen a lot of work in the first two games of this series and that catches up with them here. Over gets the call in this one!  

ASA NHL play: Over 6 Goals in Dallas  Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche (Game 4, Saturday 9:30pm ET) - Dallas (3.35 GPG, 3rd) and Colorado (3.33 GPG, 6th) are offensive powerhouses, averaging 30.8 and 29.9 shots per game, respectively. Five of their last six meetings this season (including playoffs) have finished with 6 or more goals. Dallas’s Jake Oettinger (2.67 GAA, .904 SV% in series) and Colorado’s Mackenzie Blackwood (2.34 GAA, .906 SV% in series) face high shot volumes (27-28 per game). Both teams’ potent power plays (Colorado 24.79%, Dallas 22.5% vs. opponent) and Colorado’s home scoring (3.45 GPG) support a high-scoring game. Trends show 5-1 Over in head-to-head matchups and 58% Over in Colorado’s home playoff games since 2022.

Spanish La Liga: #201997/201998 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-120) – Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano, Thursday at 3:30 ET - Atletico Madrid has conceded only 14 goals in their 16 home games in La Liga action this season!   Rayo Vallecano has conceded only 15 goals in 16 road games this season!  Both of those solid defensive statistics rank among the best in the league this season!  We see this one struggling to see much goal-mouth action.  Rayo Vallecano allowed 3 goals in the most recent road game and Atletico Madrid allowed 2 goals in the most recent home game.  The point is that both clubs will likely have defensive intensity dialed up for this one after unusual results in their most recent road / home games, respectively.  Their first meeting this season was a rather drab 1-1 draw and we expect a similar result here.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling 1 to 2 goals here and we will take the under in this one. 

#969/970 ASA PLAY ON OVER 9.5 (+100) in Athletics vs Rangers, Wednesday @ 10:05 ET - The Athletics temporary home this season in Sacramento continues to play out as a hitters paradise.  Texas won yesterday's game 8-5 and we have seen quite a few high-scoring games here already this season.  Athletics starter JP Sears has already seen how unforgiving this park can be as he struggled in his lone home start this season and gave up 3 earned runs in just 4 innings and the damage could have been even worse.  He will be opposed by Kumar Rocker for the Rangers here.   The Texas hurler is 0-3 in his 4 MLB road starts and the young hurler has particularly struggled in his first two road starts this season with 9 earned runs allowed in 6 innings of work!  Texas has had one low-scoring game on the road last 6 games but their other 5 recent road games have averaged 11 runs apiece and we expect a similar result here.  Two starting pitchers likely to struggle and neither bullpen has been great this season either.  Over gets the call here!

ASA NBA play on OVER 220.5 Detroit Pistons at NY Knicks, 7:30 pm ET - The Knicks and Pistons have met four times in the 2024-25 regular season, averaging 230.5 combined points per game. Their most recent clash, Game 1 of their playoff series, ended with a 123-112 Knicks win, totaling 235 points. Even their lowest-scoring matchup this year hit 221 points (115-106), a Pistons win on April 10th. Over their last ten head-to-head games, they’ve gone over 220 points 100% of the time, with one of the two teams scoring 117 or more points in 8 of ten. In Game 1 of this series, the Knicks offense looked like the unit that ranked 5th in Offensive Net Rating this season (117.3), on 53% shooting overall and 38% from Deep. A healthy Jalen Brunson (34 points in Game 1) has a massive impact on the Knicks offense and Karl-Anthony Towns (23 points, 11 rebounds) is also capable of putting up huge numbers. Detroit, meanwhile, has been no slouch offensively, averaging 112 PPG over their last ten games of the regular season. Cade Cunningham (21 points, 12 assists in Game 1) and Tobias Harris (25 points) can keep pace versus a Knicks team that is not as good defensively as past Thibodeau coached teams. The Pistons scored 112 in the opener of this series and that was with a 0-21 drought against the Knicks in the 4th quarter. Both teams should play at a decent pace again (99 possessions each in G1), and with another game at 56.4 EFG% or better we should see a total in the mid-220’s. Our betting model is projecting 224.3 total points.

Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-145) Prediction In Game 1 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs - The Winnipeg Jets host the St. Louis Blues in a matchup primed for a low-scoring affair. Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck has been a brick wall at home this season, posting an exceptional 27-3-3 record, 1.63 GAA, .938 SV%, and six shutouts. His dominance was evident in the regular-season series with the Blues, where the Jets won 3-1, including a 3-1 victory at home on April 7, with Hellebuyck allowing just one goal. St. Louis counters with Jordan Binnington, who has been solid with a 28-22-5 record, 2.69 GAA, and .900 SV% this season. Binnington has shown recent form, allowing three or fewer goals in three of his last five starts and one or fewer in five of his last eight. However, the Blues’ offense may be hampered, as leading scorer Robert Thomas (81 points, 21 goals, 60 assists) is questionable after an injury in the regular-season finale. Without Thomas, St. Louis, already averaging just 2.70 goals per game, could struggle against Hellebuyck’s elite goaltending. Winnipeg’s top-ranked defense (2.39 GAA) and the Blues’ improved penalty kill since the 4-Nations break further support a tight, defensive game. With both teams likely to play cautiously in this playoff opener, expect a goaltending duel that keeps the scoreline low.

German Bundesliga #202593/202594 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (+105) – Heidenheim vs Bayern Munich, Saturday at 9:30 AM ET -Bayern Munich not happy at all about their exit from the Champions League and now their full focus turns to Bundesliga action. That is concerning for a Heidenheim side that won't able to hold off relentless attacking from the visitors here. Bayern Munich, however, has been allowing more goals than usual of late and with Heidenheim also hosting this one they are likely to do some damage on the attack as well. Bayern Munich has allowed 1.8 goals per game in their last five. They also have scored about 3 goals per game in Bundesliga action this season. The last 4 meetings between these clubs have totaled 26 goals with none of the four finishing with less than 5 goals scored. Look for another wide-open high-scoring thriller here in this one as well. We will take the over in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220 Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies, 9:30 pm ET - Dallas is coming off an unexpected great shooting night in Sacramento hitting 49% overall and 50% from Deep, coasting to 120-points and the win. Obviously didn’t see that coming. The 120 they scored could have been much more, but they took their foot off the gas late and we don’t see them having that option here. More to come. Memphis basically fumbled their game away against the Warriors the other night which finished with 237 total points. Memphis shot 49% overall and 46% from beyond the arc against an outstanding Warriors defense. Now they face a Dallas D that was 20th in Defensive Efficiency this season. Memphis’ league-leading pace of 103.1 possessions per game, paired with Dallas’ respectable 99.2 (14th), sets the stage for a fast-paced, high-possession game. Historically, these teams have combined for some higher scoring games with six straight meetings of 223 or more points, including 229 in their April 13 regular season finale when the Over/Under was 228.5—eight points higher than tonight’s game. Memphis’ potent offense (121.6 points per game, 3rd in efficiency) and shaky defense (15th) coupled with Dallas’ scoring (114.4 points) and defensive lapses (115.2 allowed) make for a high scoring game. Dallas owned a 28-14-1 Over record on the road this season and have gone Over in 15 of their last 20 games. Memphis has gone Over in 56.6% of their games this season, including 3 of their last 4.

ASA NHL play on OVER 6 Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins – 7pm ET - The Capitals (51-21-9) and Penguins (33-36-12) clash tonight in a high-scoring rivalry. Washington’s elite offense (3.67 GPG, 6th) faces Pittsburgh’s weak defense (3.52 GA/G, 30th). Their February 22, game ended 8-3, clearing 6 goals easily. The Capitals average 3.51 GPG, 2nd most in the NHL; Penguins 2.93 GPG which ranks 20th. Pittsburgh allows 3+ goals in 8 of the last 14 games overall and 4+ goals in six of those games; Washington’s is 9th in GA/GP at 2.77 but will rest some key defensemen heading into the playoffs. The last time these two teams met they produced 11-goals and one of the two teams involved in this series has scored 4 or more goals in 8 straight meetings. Washington’s 26.8% PP (4th) and Pittsburgh’s 25.6% PP (6th) exploit penalties (PIT: 557 PIM, 4th). The Over is 6-3-1in Washington’s last 10 and 8-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 13 home games. In net for the Penguins tonight will be Tristan Jarry who has a 3.12 GAA and .892 SV%. Jarry has allowed 4+ goals in 4 of his last six starts and his last two outings. Washington counters with goalie Charlie Lindgren who has a 2.72 GAA and .894 SV% on the season. Lindgren has given up 3 or more goals in 3 of his last four starts.

#913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - 7 straight Rays games have reached at least the 9-run mark.  Yesterday Boston won 7-4 but the Rays took the first game of this series by a 16-1 final.  The Rays bullpen ERA ranks 17th in the majors and the Red Sox bullpen ERA ranks 20th out of the 30 teams.  The Rays batting average ranks 1st in the AL this season and Boston is a solid 4th out of the 15 AL teams!  Tampa Bay had won 4 of 6 previous to yesterday's loss and they have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 7 games.  Boston has been a little more up and down at the plate recently but yesterday's game is a good sign for them and tonight they take advantage of facing Zack Littell.  His first start was against a Rockies team that can not hit on the road and he had success of course here in Tampa against them.  However, Littell has since allowed 12 earned runs in 11 innings plus he just allowed 4 home runs in 4 innings here in Tampa Bay.  As for Red Sox starter Sean Newcombe, he has been shaky to say the least thus far.  He has struggled in his 3 starts this season and in particular the road has not been kind to him.  Newcombe allowed 10 runs (6 earned) in only 8 innings in his two road starts. . This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

UEFA Champions League: #224225/224226 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 3 Goals (-120) in Real Madrid vs Arsenal, Wednesday at 3 pm ET – Arsenal already has a 3-0 lead based on the first leg result and they will look to take a very defensive approach here and stifle any hopes of a big comeback for Real Madrid. Arsenal is very capable at the back and we can expect they will frustrate Real Madrid throughout this match. Arsenal need not worry about scoring with the huge lead they already have here. Arsenal has a allowed a total of only 3 goals last 5 games. Real Madrid will be looking to build off 1-0 win in La Liga action and we feel Arsenal will be sitting back in this one so Real Madrid will not face much in the way of attacking. Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling only 2 goals here and we will take the under in this one.

UEFA Champions League: #224221/224222 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-110) – Aston Villa vs Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), Tuesday at 3 ET - Aston Villa is at home and down 3-1 based on last week's result at PSG. The only choice for Aston Villa here is to be very aggressive. This will, of course, open up opportunities for PSG to get scoring opportunities on the counter-attack as well. We just don't see Aston Villa backing down at home and that has us convinced this one will see plenty of goals as they look to make up the 2-goal deficit in this big battle Tuesday at Villa Park. Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling 4 to 5 goals here and we will take the over in this one.

ASA NHL play on OVER 6 Goals Utah Hockey Club at Nashville Predators, 8pm ET - The Utah Hockey Club vs. Nashville Predators game at Delta Center is primed to go over 6 goals (-110 odds). Utah allows 3.0 goals per game (17th in the NHL), while Nashville’s defense is leakier, conceding 3.3 goals per game (26th). Both teams rank in the top half for shots on goal, with Utah averaging 32.4 (8th) and Nashville at 31.1 (12th), ensuring plenty of scoring chances. Last week’s meeting saw a 4-3 Nashville win with a whopping 73 combined shots, highlighting their offensive tempo. Utah has been relentless lately, firing 34, 42, and 41 shots in their last three games, while Nashville hit 30+ shots in three straight before a 17-shot effort against Vegas. Goaltending adds fuel to the over. Utah’s Karel Vejmelka (2.52 GAA, .906 SV%) has been solid on the season, but has allowed 3 goals in three of his last 5 starts. Nashville’s Juuse Saros (2.96 GAA, .895 SV%, 46th in the league) struggles to stop pucks, with 15 goals allowed over his last four games. Both teams’ power plays rank in the top 17 (Utah 24.1%, Nashville 21.7%), and their penalty kills have been below average lately, suggesting special teams could contribute. With fast-paced play and defensive gaps, expect a high-scoring affair.

English Premier League #200121/200122 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-125) – Wolverhampton vs Tottenham, Sunday at 9 AM ET - Tottenham has another huge match on deck in Europa League so they could rest some guys here. However, fresh legs coming in for the Hotspur might not be such a bad thing considering their recent struggles to finish off scoring chances. So don't be surprised if Tottenham actually sees a boost with some regulars resting some here. As for the Wolves, they are sure to get a boost with the return of Cunha from his suspension. Overall, Wolverhampton has scored at least 1 goal in 10 straight matches and averaged 1.4 goals scored during this stretch. 21 of Wolves last 28 games in EPL have totaled at least 3 goals. 3 straight meetings between these two teams have reached at least the 3 goal mark and all signs point to this making it 4 in a row.
We will take the over in this one.

#913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers, Saturday at 2:10 PM ET - Of the 14 games that were played yesterday, only one saw both teams reach double digits in hits.  It was this one featuring the Twins and Tigers and we expect another big day at the plate for both teams similar to yesterday's 7-6 Tigers win.  Detroit should have no trouble with the struggling Chris Paddack as he has been rocked in both starts this season.  Tigers starter Jackson Jobe is making just the 3rd start of his young MLB career.  He struggled with the long ball in spring training and that has carried right into the regular season as well plus he has struggled overall in both starts.  The Twins have scored at least 6 runs in each of their last 3 home games.  The Tigers have won 8 of 10 games and scored an average of 5.4 runs in those games and they stay hot at the plate here.  Our computer math model projecting 10 to 11 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

#200133/200134 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-142) – Nottingham Forest vs Everton, Saturday at 10 AM ET - Goals likely tough to come by. Everton and Nottingham Forest have been two of the top defensive clubs in the league. 4 of the last 5 meetings have totaled only 2 goals. Everton enters this one on a run of 5 straight games totaling 2 or less goals. Nottingham Forest off a 2-1 loss but their 6 games (Premier League and other competitions) featured 5 unders totaling 2 or less goals. We expect a well-played affair with a strong emphasis on defensive play from both clubs leading to a rather tight game with few scoring chances. We will take the under in this one.

German Bundesliga #202545/202546 ASA PLAY ON Under 3 Goals (-135) –Wolfsburg vs Leipzig, Friday at 2:30 ET - Goals likely tough to come by. Wolfsburg consistently struggles to score but has done a great job of limiting opposition scoring chances as well. Leipzig known for struggling on the road so the set-up here is ideal. 8 of last 10 Wolfsburg matches have totaled 2 or less goals and none of the 10 topped the 3-goal mark. Leipzig scored only 1 goal in most recent road game and this followed being shutout 5 straight times on the road. All 5 of those matches either totaled only 1 goal or were scoreless draws. We expect a well-played affair with a strong emphasis on defensive play from both clubs leading to a rather tight game with few scoring chances. We will take the under in this one.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 228 NY Knicks at Detroit Pistons, 7pm ET - This game should have a playoff like atmosphere with two teams that sit 3rd (Knicks) and 6th (Pistons) in the Eastern Conference. If the playoffs started today, this would be the first round matchup. Detroit has consistently been one of the top 10 Defensive Efficiency teams in the NBA all season long, currently allowing 1.125-points per possession, 9th best number in the league. New York hasn’t been as good defensively this season ranking 13th in DEFF but in their last five games they’ve been significantly better allowing just 1.096ppp. This game features contrasting styles of play as the Piston rank 7th in pace of play, the Knicks though are 26th. The Pistons offense has stalled in recent games with 104 or less points in 3 of their last five games. Detroit’s Offensive Efficiency in that 5-game stretch I 19th in the NBA. The Knicks are trying to jell with the return of Brunson and have had some offensive struggles with 112 or less points in 4 of their last six games. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in EFG% in their last five games with the Knicks 15th, the Pistons are dead-last or 30th.

UEFA Europa League: #224401/224402 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-115) – Bodo/Glimt vs Lazio, Thursday at 12:45 ET - Bodo/Glimt is one of the strongest clubs in the Norwegian Eliteserien and their league runs from March to November so they are underway again and coming off a 3-0 victory. Bodo/Glimt has averaged scoring 3 goals in their last 6 at home and they will surely push the pace here. While Lazio is known for lower-scoring matches, the Italian Serie A club knows they will have to be more aggressive on the attack here to keep up with Bodo in Norway. Lazio has been shutout once in seven matches since the start of March but has scored 1.3 goals per match in the other six contests and Bodo not known for strong defensive play. Our computer math model shows highest probability of a 2-1 or 2-2 final scoreline here and we will take the over in this one.

UEFA Champions League: #224213/224214 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-135) – Paris Saint-Germain vs Aston Villa, Wednesday at 3 ET - Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) is off a 1-0 win in French Ligue 1 action but PSG averaged scoring 4.3 goals in their other 3 contests dating back to mid-March. On the season in league action PSG is still undefeated with 23 wins and 5 draws in their 28 contests on the campaign! The average score of their French Ligue 1 matches is 3-1 and one can expect the goals to fly in this one in Champions League action as well. Aston Villa will look to take advantage of center-back Marquinhos being suspended for PSG for this one. He is not only a defender but the captain of the team! Aston Villa comes into this one rolling with confidence with 7 straight victories and scoring an average of 2.4 goals in the 7-game win streak. This is the 1st Leg of 2 and we expect PSG to be quite aggressive on the attack at home and Aston Villa will respond in kind in what sets up to be a very entertaining opener. The availability of 3 in the marketplace at big books is a key to the value here in this one as well as 3 would be a return of our wager here.
Our computer math model shows highest probability of a 3-2 or 2-2 final scoreline here and we will take the over in this one.

#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 7.5 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals, Wednesday at 12:35 PM ET - This total has dropped from its opener and yes it will be chilly in Pittsburgh today but not brutal.  Fedde starts for the Cardinal here and he is coming off his first road start of the season and it was a disaster.  Last season his ERA was more than 2 runs higher on the road compared to at home and we expect this pattern to continue here.  Fedde has a 4.85 ERA in his career and is not showing any signs of turning things around.  Keller starts for the Pirates here and he just got rocked by the Yankees here in Pittsburgh.  Keller had a 5.00 ERA in his 3 starts versus Cardinals last season and allowed 5 homers in the 3 outings.  Both bullpens struggling early this season too. Our computer math model projecting 9 to 10 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 7:15 PM ET - This should be a pitchers duel in this early season division rivalry battle.  Chris Sale has a deceiving ERA early this season as he has certainly pitched better than his 5.40 ERA would lead you to believe.  Also, this is his first home start of 2025 and last season he went 10-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his 14 home starts!  Yes, 10-0!  He'll be opposed by Zach Wheeler who is already dominating again this season.  Wheeler has gone 42-20 since the start of the 2022 season and has been dominant since coming to the Phillies.  This season has been fantastic with only 5 hits allowed while striking out 18 in 13 innings over his first two starts!  Wheeler also has allowed just 3 earned runs total in his last 3 starts versus the Braves!  Both bullpens had slow starts earlier this season but both are rounding into form.  That is another reason to be careful looking at early season numbers.  Both these bullpens are expected to be solid and both are showing that after a shaky early season beginning.  The Phillies are off a wild 8-7 win over the Dodgers Sunday but this followed Philadelphia allowing only 8 runs in a strong 5-game stretch preceding that high-scoring win.  The Braves have allowed 3.4 runs per game the last 7 games and also the Atlanta lineup has mostly struggled this season.  Other than a 10-0 win, Atlanta has scored only 1.8 runs per game in their other 8 games!  The Phillies were averaging 3 runs per game over a 6-game stretch prior to that surprising blowout on Sunday.  Another factor we like here is the fact that early season timing for hitters is crucial as it takes awhile to get into mid-season form! Not only were both teams off Monday, the Braves game Sunday was also rained out! Facing Wheeler and Sale after time off is not fun for any team.  This should be a tight low-scoring battle. Our computer math model projecting 4 to 5 runs here and even if it gets to 6 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

#200109/200110 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-140) – Leicester vs Newcastle, Monday at 3 ET - Leicester has not been scoring goals recently but it has been strange as they did score 11 goals in their first 8 matches at home this season in Premier League games. We expect them to get back on track here at home and score a goal but defensively they have virtually no shot at stopping Newcastle. The visitors have scored an average of 2 goals in their last 8 meetings with Leicester. Also, Newcastle has scored 5 goals in last 3 games overall. They are a large favorite here and should stay hot but we also expect Leicester to finally get back into the goal-scoring column on their home pitch in what has been a disappointing campaign as relegation a virtual certainty now. Our computer math model shows highest probability of a 3-1 or 2-1 final scoreline here and we will take the over in this one.

ASA play on UNDER 245.5 Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks, 6:10pm ET - This number opened south of 240 and was quickly bet up to the current number of 244. We love the extra value and will be UNDER the total. Sure, Atlanta is playing for a better seed in the Eastern Conference, but they are also locked into the postseason. They have a MUCH bigger game on deck with Orlando who sits a game and a half ahead of them in the 7th seed. The Hawks will obviously play to win, but do they need a blowout to do so, or will they expand their rotation to keep starters fresh? We expect the latter. Atlanta is coming off a game yesterday against the Knicks and when playing without rest this season they are 6-9 UNDER with those games stayed below the number by an average of nearly 10ppg. On the season the Hawks rank 3rd in pace of play at 102.7 but in their last 5 games they have slowed to 100.2 which ranks 8th. Atlanta is below average in Offensive Efficiency ranking 19th at 1.141-points per possession and average or below in shooting overall. The Hawks are near league average in Defensive Efficiency, but let’s face it the Jazz can’t take advantage with the 24th ranked OEFF and a team that averages just 111.4ppg. Utah is in full tank-mode as they are trying desperately to land the #1 pick in the draft and Cooper Flagg of Duke. They have scored 106 or less in 7 of their last ten games. Granted, they have given up some huge numbers defensively in recent weeks, but again, the Hawks are unrested, have a big game on deck and no motivation to put up 140 in this one. Even if the Hawks get to 130 this game still has a great shot at staying UNDER the inflated Total.

#903/904 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - Back to back unders so far this in series and another one is likely here.  The Dodgers, not including extra innings runs, are allowing only 2.5 runs per game.  The Phillies are allowing only 1.6 runs per game last 5 games.  Glasnow is a fantastic pitcher that is very tough to hit and piles up strikeouts.  Sanchez off a great first start for the Phillies this season and went 7-3 with a 2.21 ERA in his home starts last season.  Chilly and dreary weather expected in Philly for this one and this should be yet another tight, low-scoring battle between two of the top teams in the majors.  These two bullpens are a combined 8-0 with 7 saves in 9 opportunities and a blended ERA in the 2.50 range.  The point is that runs should again be tough to come by throughout this one.  Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

#921/922 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - The Yankees are the #1 hitting team in baseball and scoring an average of 9 runs per game!  The Pirates are at the other end of the spectrum but have been hitting better at home and overall Pittsburgh has scored 4 runs in each of last 3 games.  The way we see it, that makes this a great spot for an over.  The Yankees should stay red hot at the plate and the Pirates are likely to not only reach 4 runs here but probably even more.  Pittsburgh will be facing Will Warren of the Yankees here and he is still unproven at the MLB level with an 0-3 record and 9.11 ERA in 7 games (6 starts).  He gave up only 1 hit (a homer) in 5 innings in his first start this season but he walked 4 in that outing.  Also, Warren had a 5.09 ERA in spring training with a tendency there to also give up the big hit.  Warren, in regular season MLB action, has allowed 6 homers in 27 and 2/3 innings.  Both bullpens have unimpressive ERAs so far this season and the Pirates starter is also in line for a tough outing here.  Andrew Heaney had a very rough spring training going 0-3 with a 9.49 ERA and also his first start in the regular season was decent but yet he only struck out 2 in 5 innings.  He is coming off a 5-14 season with the Rangers and now he faces a Yankees team that has been destroying left-handed pitching this season. New York has a .728 slugging percentage versus southpaws on the season.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

#200101/200102 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (+115) – Tottenham vs Southampton, Sunday at 9 AM ET - Disappointing campaign for Tottenham and here is a chance to get right against Southampton. The Saints are having a disastrous season and, previous to the 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, allowed 3.2 goals on average last 5 games. Not a surprise considering Southampton has allowed more goals than any other team in the league. Tottenham needs to respond off the 1-0 loss to Chelsea and get back on track after overall recent struggles. We trust them to score well here as they are one of the highest scoring teams in the league and average 2 goals at home this season. They also have allowed 26 goals in their 15 games at home so the Saints could surprise here with some goal-scoring but Hotspur likely to get 3 of their own at least. Our computer math model shows highest probability of a 3-1 or 3-2 final scoreline here and we will take the over in this one.

#679/680 ASA PLAY ON Under 137 Points – Houston vs Duke, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - These 2 met in the Sweet 16 last season and it was a 56 possession grinder with Duke coming out on top 54-51.  While we don’t expect the scoring to be that low in this one, we still anticipate a low possession game with 2 very high level defenses that will lead to an Under in this one.  Houston ranks as the #1 defense in the nation (efficiency) and they allow only 58 PPG which is also #1 nationally.  They have held 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents to 60 points or less including Purdue (7th nationally in offensive efficiency) and Tennessee (17th).  The Big 12 had 5 teams ranked in the top 20 in offensive efficiency and Houston played 9 games vs those opponents.  Only 1 topped 65 points in those 9 games and those teams averaged 61 PPG vs Houston.  We don’t expect them to hold Duke, the #1 offense in efficiency, to those numbers but we also don’t look for the Devils to go wild offensively in this one.  The Blue Devils have fantastic offensive numbers but they’ve played a very weak schedule of defensive teams this season which lends to those stats.  They haven’t faced a team in the NCAA tourney that is ranked in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and the only ACC team that ranks in the top 20 in that metric was Clemson (17th) who held the Devils to 71 points.  What doesn’t get talked about enough is how good Duke is defensively.  They rank 4th in the country in efficiency and 7th in PPG allowed (62 PPG).  They have held 3 of their 4 tourney opponents to 66 points or fewer including limiting the #1 scoring team in the country, Alabama, to only 65 points in their most recent game.  That’s the same Bama team that was averaging 91 PPG on the season and had scored 90, 80, and 113 points in their first 3 NCAA games before hitting a wall vs this Duke defense.  The Blue Devils have played 38 games this season and have allowed more than 70 points only 7 times.  As we stated, we expect a low possession game as Houston is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (360th in adjusted tempo) and Duke is a slower paced team this season as well (268th).  Both defenses make opponents work incredibly hard for shots with Houston’s opponents getting a shot off every 18.7 seconds (12th longest in the country) and Duke’s opponents every 19 seconds (5th longest).  A tough shooting venue in the Alamo Dome and we like the Under here.

ASA NHL top play on OVER 6.5 GOALS (-110) Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets – 7 pm ET - Perfect set-up here. The Maple Leafs are off a big divisional win over Florida and they have a road trip down to Florida on deck!  This means we are unlikely to see defensive intensity at its peak for the Leafs here.  They are in a dogfight to win the Atlantic Division as they are trying to hold off the Panthers and the Lighting and now they face both those teams down in Florida this coming week.  Toronto should have no trouble scoring goals on this struggling Blue Jackets defense (and goalie Merzlikins struggling too) but don't be surprised if Columbus is answering them goal for goal at the other end.  The Jackets already have beaten the Leafs in both meetings this season and they scored at least 5 goals in each win!  Granted they faced a different goalie in those two games then they face tonight but the confidence against Toronto is certainly there!  Also, Columbus has scored 4 goals per game in their last 6 games so their overall confidence is back up in the offensive zone.  The trouble for the Blue Jackets is that they have allowed 5 goals per game last 6 games and Toronto is sure to take advantage.  As for the Leafs, we know Stolarz has been announced as the expected starter tonight for the Maple Leafs and he has been playing well.  However, the Jackets are in a desperate situation (still alive in the Wild card race) and yet are weak defensively and in goal.  The point is that Columbus knows they have no choice but to throw everything but the kitchen sink at Stolarz.  This is going to end up a wide open game the way we see it as the Blue Jackets will be forced to be aggressive and to take risks but they are so weak in their own end that the Maple Leafs will cash in on this too in what should turn into a free-flowing affair.  Analyzing all the factors with this one we can't see either team being held below 3 goals and that would mean a 4-3 final at the very least in this one.  We actually predict that a 5-3 or 5-4 game is even more likely.  Both teams have been finding the net with regularity.  More of the same tonight.  Over is the call here! 

#681/682 ASA PLAY ON Under 160 Points – Auburn vs Florida, Saturday at 6 PM ET - These 2 met once this year in early February and that total was set at 156. The game was played @ Auburn and the Gators pulled off the 90-81 win pushing it Over the total. There were 74 possessions in that game but we expect a slower paced game here as most teams reign it in a bit this late in the season. Every possession is huge. These 2 have combined to average 69 possessions per game in their 8 NCAA tourney game which is below their average for the season. We don’t think this rematch gets anywhere near the 171 posted in the first game. This game is being played at the Alamo Dome which is a huge arena meant for football, not basketball. It’s a tough shooting venue which has hosted 4 other Final 4’s and the average total points scored here in those previous games was 146. Of the 12 games played in the Final 4 and National Championship game at the Alamo Dome, only 2 reached 160+ total points. These 2 defenses are elite. They both rank in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. Auburn’s offense has posted PPP numbers (offensive efficiency) below their season average for 8 consecutive games. Defensively they have not allowed more than 70 points in this tourney. The Gators have been held under their PPP season average on offense in 4 of their last 5 games but they’ve held each of their opponents in this tourney below their offensive efficiency average. Once you hit the Final 4, it’s really tough for both teams to put up big offensive numbers in a game. In fact, over the last 15 seasons, there have been 45 Final 4 & National Championship games and only FOUR have reached 160+ total points. Both teams being from the SEC, they know each other very well and we don’t think either team gets to 80 points which keeps this Under the total.

#202533/202534 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-114) – Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt, Saturday at 12:30 ET - Werder Bremen has scored multiple goals in 3 straight matches but has also allowed multiple goals in 3 straight matches at home.  They host Eintracht Frankfurt in this one and the visitors also come into this one in strong goal-scoring form with scoring an average of 2.2 goals last five. Eintracht Frankfurt off a 1-0 win but this was on the heels of 7 straight matches totaling at least 3 goals. Also, the last 7 times these clubs have met at Werder Bremen, all 7 went over the total! An average of 4 goals scored in those 7 meetings and we like the value here with this available at 3 goals and we will take the over in this one.

#202509/202510 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-165) – Augsburg vs Bayern Munich, Friday at 2:30 ET -Augsburg has trended under recently but when they meet Bayern Munich the goals tend to fly. Not only have 5 straight meetings reached at least the 3-goal mark, those meetings averaged a total of 5.4 goals! Bayern Munich has averaged scoring 2.6 goals in last 7 matches including 5 in Bundesliga and 2 in Champions League - which were also against Bundesliga competition as they faced Bayer Leverkusen. Augsburg averages 1.1 goals scored per match in league action and Bayern Munich leads the league with 2.9 goals scored per match in league action. We like the value here with this one available at 2.5 goals and we will take the over in this one.

#671/672 ASA PLAY ON Under 154 Points Nebraska vs Georgetown, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - The Crown Classic had a high scoring first day with all 4 games going Over the total but evened out yesterday with a 2-2 mark to the Over. Because of day 1, the totals were getting steamed up on Tuesday and this one is set too high. Both Nebraska and Georgetown went Over in their match ups vs Arizona State and Washington State respectively. The Huskers were on pace to go way Under the total vs a fast paced ASU team when the 2 went crazy in the final minutes. They scored 32 points in the final 3 minutes of the game and with just 1:20 remaining they still only had 146 total points (ended with 164). The Huskers shot 51% for the game which is well above their season average of 45%. We don’t expect a duplicate performance vs a Hoya defense that allows opponents to shoot 42% and gives up just 69 PPG on the season. On the other end of the court, we think Georgetown will struggle offensively vs a solid Nebraska defense (42nd nationally in defensive efficiency). The Hoyas will most likely be without their top 3 scorers again in this game and playing with only 5 scholarship players. They only had 1 starter available on Monday, Malik Mack, who averaged 11 PPG on the season and he went crazy scoring 37 of their points (45% of their total points) and made 8 of 12 from deep. Mack shot 31.9% from 3 on the season and that performance from Monday won’t be duplicated here. Neither team shoots the 3 very well (240th and 267th nationally) and both teams do a good job of not sending opponents to the FT line (both top 75 in opponent FT attempts per game). Nebraska games averaged 148 total points this season while Georgetown games averaged 141. We’re getting some solid value here because of their opening round games and the way this tourney has been trending the first 8 games. Let’s take this one Under the total.

#927/928 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs – San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - The Padres bullpen has a miniscule 0.38 ERA this season which is tops in the majors.  The Guardians bullpen, though giving up some hits, is also doing a fantastic job as they rank #1 in the AL this season with a 2.08 ERA.  This one sets up well for an under as the starting pitching match-up features two guys who pitched better than their ERA shows in their first starts of this season.  Lively goes for Cleveland here and he allowed only 4 hits in 5 innings in his first start but was hurt by a 2-out 3-run homer in that game.  He did give up some long fly balls but he pitched better overall than the final results reflect.  Last season he had a 3.64 ERA in day games and the year before he had a 3.52 ERA in day games.  The Padres Cease gave up a 2-out 2-run single and a solo homer in his first start.  That ground ball could have been fielded if the 2nd baseman was in a better position and it should have been inning over.  Cease is a great pitcher and had 7 strikeouts in 4 innings in that outing. Opponents hit just .153 against him in day games last season and only .220 against him the year before in afternoon games.  Not including runs in extra innings, the Guardians have averaged scoring only 3 runs per game this season and they might only get 1 or 2 here considering they are facing Cease and a great bullpen. The Padres should also struggle at the plate as Boegaerts is 3 for 6 versus Lively but the rest of the active roster is a combined 1 for 21 against him!  Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. 

#200065/200066 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (+110) – Liverpool vs Everton, Wednesday at 3 ET - Goals likely tough to come by. The last meeting was 2-2 at Everton in February but it was a rough and tumble battle that was 1-1 until the 73' mark plus then got a goal after the 90' mark. Prior to that rare, high-scoring draw between these clubs the last 5 meetings between these clubs all finished at 2 or less goals. Also, the last 5 meetings with Liverpool as the host have all been unders. Tempers boiled over in a brawl at the end of that 2-2 draw in February and we expect a rather cagey affair in the rematch with defensive play at the forefront. As a result, look for that under run with Liverpool hosting Everton to make it 6 in a row. We expect a well-played affair with a strong emphasis on defensive play from both clubs leading to a rather tight game with few scoring chances. We will take the under in this one.

ASA play on UNDER 233 Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, 10pm ET - We are betting on a ‘playoff like’ game tonight between the Wolves and Nuggets. Games are taking on more meaning late in the season with playoff seeding on the line and tonight, these two teams have a lot to play for. Denver is 3rd in the West but only has a 1-game lead on the Lakers for 4th and trail Houston by 1.5-games for 2nd. Minnesota is currently 7th in the Western Conference which would mean play-in games just to qualify for the postseason. Last season these two teams met in a 7-game playoff series with everyone of those games staying below tonight’s total. In fact, those playoff games averaged just 200 total points per game. In two games early this season these two teams produced 235 and 237 total points but recently they combined for 210. Every possession for each team is going to be critical tonight so expect a more deliberate pace and longer possessions. Both teams have slowed their pace of play in their last 10 games. Denver is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA this season, but the Wolves defense ranks 6th in Defensive Efficiency. In turn, Minnesota’s not a great shooting team and will have a hard time exploiting a slightly above average FG% defense of the Nuggets. With tensions high tonight we like UNDER the total.

#200033/200034 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-130) – Wolverhampton vs West Ham, Tuesday at 2:45 ET - Goals likely tough to come by. The Wolves are without Cunha and were already having troubles on the attack so it does not bode well for them here. However, West Ham has trouble scoring goals too so while the side is very tough to call here in our opinion, the total absolutely should be a solid under. Wolverhampton is off a 2-1 win but that came against hapless Southampton and, prior to this, the Wolves scored just 1 goal in each of last 5 matches. West Ham is on a run in which 5 straight matches (and 7 of last 8) have totaled 2 or less goals. We expect a well-played affair with a strong emphasis on defensive play from both clubs leading to a rather tight game with few scoring chances. We will take the under in this one.

ASA play on OVER 235.5 Boston Celtics at Memphis Grizzlies, 7:30pm ET - The Grizzlies sit 5th in the Western Conference, a game behind the Lakers for 4th, yet fired their coach Tayler Jenkins last week. Interim coach Lisalo Tuomas has never been an NBA head coach, but has extensive European experience. His philosophy is to play fast. In the Grizzlies most recent game they produced 261 combined total points with the Lakers. They attempted 95 field goals in the game, slightly more than their season average of 93.4. Memphis is already the fastest paced team in the league at 103.85 with the 6th most efficient offense in the league at 1.182-points per possession. The Grizz average 55.6 points in the paint this season, 2nd most in the NBA. Boston comes into this game with the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.208PPP. They attempt more 3’s per game at 48.3 than any other team in the league and make more at 17.9 per game. They have the 8th best 3PT% in the NBA at 37%. The best way to attack a solid Memphis defense is from beyond the arc. Memphis allows opponents to make 36.3% of their 3’s (16th) and give up the 25th most attempts and makes from Downtown. Both teams favor the OVER when playing non-conference games with a combined 35-20 record. When these teams met earlier this season they combined for 248 total points. Expect more of the same tonight.

ASA NHL top play on OVER 6.5 GOALS (+100) Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks – 8 pm ET - Perfect set-up here. The Maple Leafs are in a B2B spot.  Toronto off a low-scoring win over the Kings last night but Los Angeles is known for playing lower-scoring games.  The Leafs used Stolarz in goal last night which means Woll should be getting the call tonight.  Not only has Woll allowed 4 or more goals in his last two starts, they were against the lower-scoring Sharks and Predators.  Now he faces a Ducks team that has been scoring well at home.  Also, Woll has allowed an average of 4 goals in his last 5 road starts so his road struggles are nothing new.  The Ducks will likely start Gibson here in goal after he returned recently from injury.  Though his first two starts have been good since he returned, he faced the Bruins and Predators.  Those are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the league.  Now he faces a Maple Leafs team that is one of the highest scoring clubs in the league.  Also, before the win over the Bruins, Gibson allowed 6 goals in a loss to the Blackhawks in his most recent home start prior to facing Boston.  The Maple Leafs have won 5 of 7 games and averaged scoring 4 goals in those 7 games!  The Ducks have scored an average of 3.5 goals per game in their last 18 games on home ice!  Analyzing all the factors with this one we can't see either team being held below 3 goals and that would mean a 4-3 final at the very least in this one.  Both teams have been finding the net with regularity.  More of the same tonight.  Over is the call here! 

#645/646 ASA PLAY ON Under 148.5 Points – Michigan State vs Auburn, Sunday at 5 PM ET - MSU has been an Under machine all season with a 25-11 mark. We were on the Under in the MSU vs Ole Miss game on Friday which cashed and we’re jumping back on here. Both of these defenses are elite ranking 4th (MSU) and 8th (Auburn) nationally in defensive efficiency. They both defend the arc at a top 10 rate as well (MSU 2nd and Auburn 7th). Sparty is a poor 3 point shooting team (318th) and the simply don’t attempt many triples (356th in percentage of points from deep). The Tigers are better shooting from 3 but not elite (55th in the country) and MSU limits opponents to around 6 made 3’s per game. We don’t expect a ton of points from deep in this game. Both teams are middle of the pack when it comes to adjusted tempo (134th and 179th) but they’ve played at a slower pace during the tourney which is to be expected. Especially MSU who tallied only 64 possessions on Friday vs Ole Miss (who has a similar tempo to Auburn) and 65 possessions vs New Mexico who is one of the fastest paced teams in the country (7th). Sparty has allowed 62, 63, and 70 points in their 3 games in the NCAA tourney and the 70 game vs Ole Miss who made a near half court heave as time expired or they would have been at 67. Auburn has allowed just 63, 70, and 65 points in their 3 games. Michigan State’s offense has been held under their season efficiency average in 5 of their last 6 games while Auburn has been held under their offensive efficiency average in 7 straight games. Now with each offense facing a top 10 defense, we don’t think they get anywhere near their average efficiency numbers in this one. Pressure packed game to get to the Final 4 where the defenses are the best units on the court. Under is the call.

ASA play on UNDER 218.5 Sacramento Kings at Orlando Magic, 5pm ET - The Magic are coming off a tough home loss to the Mavericks while the Kings are off a big home win over the Blazers. The Magics offense has a Net rating of 111.1 in their last eight home games where they’ve played extremely slowly with 95.75 possessions per game and scored 106.6ppg. The Kings are averaging 110.8ppg in their last six games away from home and have scored 106 or less points in 6 of their last ten games. The Magic have the 2nd best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.100PPP, the Kings are 22nd. Sacramento is 22nd in pace of play and prefer to play half court with Sabonis and DeRozan who are both better in a set offense. The Kings defensive numbers aren’t great in their last ten games but they’ve faced a gauntlet of great offenses which has skewed their numbers. We like UNDER 218 here.

#635/636 ASA PLAY ON Under 143.5 points – Michigan State vs Mississippi, Friday at 7 PM ET - We have 2 very defensive minded coaches in this game with Izzo and Beard. Both defenses rank in the top 21 in efficiency (MSU 5th and Ole Miss 21st). MSU’s defense has been top 10 all season long. They allow just 67 PPG on the season and held Bryant to 62 points and New Mexico to 63 in their 2 tourney games. Both of those teams like to play very fast (both top 10 tempo) and have good offensive efficiency numbers and Sparty shut them down to 0.87 and 0.97 PPP. The Spartan have played 35 games this season and only 11 of those opponents topped 70 points. In their 2 tourney games, Ole Miss held a red hot UNC, who had scored at least 80 points in 7 of their previous 12 games, to just 64 points. Over the weekend the Rebs had a high scoring game vs Iowa State (91-78 final) but Ole Miss had an outlier offensive performance hitting 58% of their shots AND 58% of their 3 pointers. Even with that, the game was at 130 total points with 5:00 minutes remaining and with ISU down by double digits, they pushed the pace and the 2 teams scored 39 points from that point on. MSU shoots very few 3’s and when they do the hit only 31% (323rd nationally). On the other end, the Rebels are an OK 3 point shooting team (122nd nationally) however the Spartans are the #1 three point D in the country allowing 27.8%. Both offenses haven’t been overly efficient away from home this season with MSU averaging 1.04 PPP and Ole Miss 1.07. This game is being played at State Farm Arena, home of the Atlanta Hawks, and an unfamiliar venue to both teams which could affect shooting. MSU has been an Under juggernaut all season with a 24-11 mark and we look for another one on Friday. Both defenses allow less than 0.96 PPP on the season they are the 2 best units on the floor. Play the Under here.

NBA play on UNDER 218.5 Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic, 7:10pm ET

We were hoping this line would be above 216 and were prepared to bet it UNDER at anything above that number. The 219 is a very generous number based on our numbers, and we expect a total well below this tonight. Orlando is the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA at 96.2 possessions per game. They are also really good defensively with the second-best Defensive Efficiency rating at 1.10PPP. The Magic aren’t great offensively though the 3rd worst Offensive Efficiency rating of 1.088PPP. Dallas is average is pace, below average offensively and defensively. The Mavs are coming off an incredible shooting night against the Knicks at 54% overall and were well above expectations in the 1st half. Naji Marshall was 17/25 from the field and we don’t expect him to duplicate those numbers against this Magic defense. The Mavs should have Anthony Davis back for this game and while he provides more offense, he’s also one of the best big defenders in the NBA. When these teams met earlier this season they combined for 193 total points. 

#23/24 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6 Goals - Colorado Avalanche vs Detroit Red Wings, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The key reason that the Red Wings, prior to last night, had been straight-up spiraling with just 2 wins in their last 11 games had a lot to do with goals conceded. Now off a 5-1 win there is much more than meets the eye to that one. Detroit goalie Petr Mrazek got hurt very early and Alex Lyon came in and had a rare, strong performance though he did not face a lot of shots. The Red Wings had allowed 4 goals per game in their 11 games prior to last night's win. Detroit now has a goalie problem again tonight. Lyon won't go because he played last night and Mrazek is now out with an injury. That means it will be Cam Talbot here and he has allowed at least 4 goals in 6 of his last 9 starts! He will struggle again in goal here against a very strong Avalanche team and let's not forget the Red Wings started this road trip first getting smoked 4-1 in Washington and then torched 6-3 in Vegas. Detroit’s on the ropes, and now their big deadline pickup, Petr Mrazek, proved he ain't saving the day plus he is now out with an injury. We did end up liking what we saw from the Red Wings in their neutral zone play and playing up high in the D zone to create some odd man rushes in the win at Utah last night. They did not have to generate a lot of shots on goal but they did create quality chances plus we saw some extra hunger in front of the goal for 2nd chance opportunities. The Red Wings are still within striking distance of the final Wild Card spot in the East and they have some added confidence after netting 5 goals last night.  Trouble for Detroit is their goalie is likely to get torched again here by a Colorado team that has won 10 of 12 games and scored 4 goals per game on average during this run. The Avalanche are projected to have Mackenzie Blackwood in goal here. Not only did he allow 4 goals at Montreal in most recent start, he has allowed 7 goals in his last 2 starts on home ice. Last but not least, both these clubs have been strong on the power play this season. The Avalanche are not great on the penalty kill either while the Red Wings penalty kill has been brutally bad on the season.  This means we should see some special teams goals here as well. By the way, the Avs have averaged scoring 5 goals per game last 7 games at home plus we expect Detroit also builds off last night's 5-goal showing and we look for plenty of goals as a result in this one. Bet the over!

ASA play on OVER 224 Dallas Mavericks at NY Knicks, 7:40pm ET - No team in the NBA goes OVER the total at a higher rate than the Mavericks when playing the second night of a back-to-back. Dallas 10-1 OVER when playing without rest and those games have gone OVER by an average of +17.4ppg. The Mavs are also 19-5 OVER when playing an Eastern Conference opponent this season. Dallas received some good news with the return of Anthony Davis last night against the Nets. AD played 26 minutes and scored 12 points to go along with 6 rebounds. Even with their depleted roster the Mavs offense has been solid in recent games by scoring 120 or more points in four straight games. In fact, the Dallas Offensive Net rating over that 4 game span is 7th best in the league. On the other end of the court things haven’t gone as well for the Mavs. Dallas ranks 23rd in Defensive Net rating and they’ve given up 122 or more points in 10 of their last twelve games, 130+ in five of those games. New York got a much needed win last time out 122-103 against the Wizards. They have been off for 2 days and should be fresh for this contest. NY’s offensive struggles are well documented without Jalen Brunson but today is a great spot to ‘get right’ versus this Dallas D. On the season the Knicks rank 5th in Offensive Net ratings and have capable scorers in Karl Anthony Towns, Bridges and Anunoby who are all averaging 16+ points per game. The Knicks 4th best FG% offense should get plenty of open looks against a Dallas D that ranks 16th in opponents FG% allowed and 21st in 3PT%. Conversely, the Mavs should knock down shots with their 12th bet FG% (and 10th in 3PT%) against a Knicks defense that ranks 21st in FG% and 28th in 3PT% allowed. The bet here is OVER!

ASA play on OVER 232.5 San Antonio Spurs at Detroit Pistons, 7pm ET - Over the last ten games the Spurs have the #1 rated Offensive Net rating in the NBA at 123. The Pistons aren’t too far behind them at the 10th spot with a 117.2 ONR. Both teams play at an above average pace with the Piston ranking 9th and the Spurs 13th for the season. Defensively the Pistons rank 9th in Defensive Net ratings, the Spurs though are 25th. The Spurs have scored 119 or more points in eight of their last nine games. They’ve also allowed 115 or more points in 8 of their last ten games. Detroit has put up 115 or more points in 8 of their last ten games and have allowed 113 or more points in 5 of their last six. When these teams last met in mid-February they combined for 235 total points. We see another high scoring game here.

ASA play on OVER 223 Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns, 10 pm ET - Our numbers suggest the oddsmakers were correct on this opening line of 230, hence we like the value with this OVER wager. Our math model is projecting 228.3 total points in this game and even when we crunch the numbers on each teams last 5-games we get an OVER of 224.1. Both teams have slowed their pace in their last 5 games but with these two teams we don’t need a track meet to cash the OVER. That’s because these are two of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA. The Bucks rank 3rd in 3PT% at 38.3%, the Suns are 2nd at 38.4%. Phoenix is the 8th most efficient offense in the NBA on the season averaging 1.169-points per possession, the Bucks are 14th at 1.149PPP. Both offenses are trending up in their last five games with both having OEFF numbers higher than their season numbers. These two teams met just over a week ago in Milwaukee and produced 269 total points, in large part because of great 3-point shooting. The Suns hit 14/33 3’s for 42%, the Bucks went 24 of 41 from Deep for 59%. Even without Lillard or Beal in the lineups for each team we expect a game closer to league average than not.

ASA play on OVER 230 Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 pm ET - Both teams are off games yesterday and playing their 3rd game in four days, 5th in eight days. Fatigue will be a factor here and lead to a lack of defense by both teams. On the subject of defense, these two teams don’t play any. On the season the 76ers rank 27th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.181-points per possession. The Pelicans are 30th or last in the league in DEFF giving up 1.20PPP. Looking closer, we find in each of their last 5-games but defenses have been worse yet with the Pels giving up 1.286PPP, the Sixers are allowing 1.291PPP. The injury riddled 76ers are playing fast without their regulars with the 7th fastest pace of play in the NBA over the last 5 games. New Orleans is about league average in pace of play. The lineups were different at the time, but in January when these teams met in Philly they produced 238 total points. Both teams favor the OVER when playing unrested with a combined 16-10-1 record. With tickets coming in on the UNDER and the line moving up we like the smart money move and OVER.

ASA play on UNDER 225 Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets, 7:10pm ET - This game will have a playoff vibe with the Rockets currently the #2 seed in the Western Conference, the Nuggets are 3rd, 2 games back of Houston. Denver will be without MVP Nikola Jokic and his 29.1ppg and 10.3 assists per game. Denver’s offensive efficiency numbers have fallen off significantly in their last five games compared to their season long statistics. Scoring without the Joker is going to be difficult against this Rockets defense that ranks 3rd best in DEFF allowing just 1.100-points per possession. Denver has managed just 108 and 109-points in their last two games against defenses not as good as this Rockets D. Houston is ‘average’ in terms of points per possession at 1.146PPP and a poor shooting team ranking 26th in EFG%. We expect both defense and pace of play to be the main contributors to a low scoring game between these two teams fighting for better playoff seeding.

#877/878 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 137.5 points - Arkansas State vs North Texas, Sunday at 7 PM ET - We were on Arkansas State in their first round NIT match up with St Louis and picked up an easy win with the Red Wolves rolling up huge offensive numbers (103-78 Final). They shot 54% overall and 46% from deep in what was a very fast paced game with 75+ possessions. That won’t happen here. First of all, UNT will slow this game to a crawl as they do with every game. Secondly, UNT’s defense is outstanding ranking 46th in efficiency, 27th in eFG% allowed, and 19th in 3 point FG% allowed. The Mean Green played a number of games vs high potent, fast paced offenses and for the most part they shut them down in low possession games. They held a high scoring Memphis team (80 PPG) that plays very fast (28th in tempo) to just 68 points on 1.05 PPP (just 65 possessions). They held UAB (81 PPG), who also plays very fast, to just 61 and 66 points in games of just 60 and 64 possessions. Arkansas St averages 79 PPG but they aren’t a great shooting team. They rank 294th in FG% and 288th in 3 point FG%. When they played slow paced, good defensive teams in the Sun Belt (App State and South Alabama) they totaled 116, 120, and 145 points (on only 65 possessions in that last game). UNT is back at home here where they beat Furman 75-64 in a game that had only 58 possessions. The Mean Green are an average shooting team (45%) but hit just under 55% in that game vs a Furman D that ranks 200th in efficiency. Now they face a top 100 D in Arkansas State. Both teams defend the arc at a high level (both top 20) so we don’t expect a ton of points from deep. UNT has allowed 70+ points since December and ASU’s defense allowed 70+ only 6 times in their 18 regular season conference games. This has the makings of a very low possession game where the defenses dominate. Under.

#861/862 ASA PLAY ON Under 150.5 Points - St Mary’s vs Alabama, Sunday at 6:10 PM ET - This total is set too high. We think this gets to the mid 40’s at best and most likely lower. We understand why it’s set high with the Crimson Tide leading the nation in scoring at 91 PPG. We don’t see them getting anywhere close to that in this game. That’s because St Mary’s will slow the heck out of this game (4th slowest team in the country) and the Gaels are also a high level defensive team (7th in the country in D efficiency). It’s much easier to slow a fast team down rather than speed up a slow team. Nobody has been able to get STM going at a high pace. While they are facing the #1 scoring team in the nation on Sunday, the Gaels have already taken on the #2 scoring team (Gonzaga) 3 times. The Zags average 87 PPG on the season and play very fast. In their games vs St Mary’s, they averaged only 61 PPG and held the Zags under 60 points twice. None of those 3 match ups topped 63 possessions. In Friday’s game, STM faced Vandy who is a very high tempo team that ranks 32nd in the country in offensive efficiency and the final score was 59-56 on only 59 possessions. This team has zero chance to win this game in a shootout and they’ll make sure it doesn’t turn into that. On the other end, we’ve talked about Bama’s offense, but their defense is very sold ranking 34th in efficiency. They defend the arc very well (26th) as does St Mary’s (44th). Both teams limit with only 26.9% of STM’s opponents points coming from deep (335th) and 27.1% of Bama’s opponents points coming from 3 (329th). If this one plays out as we expect, we just don’t see how this gets to 150 points unless both teams shoot lights out. We’re on the Under.

ASA play on OVER 222.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings, 10pm ET - The Bucks, sitting 3rd in the NBA for 3-point shooting, are primed to light up the Kings, who rank dead last (30th) at defending the three. Sacramento’s been an offensive beast lately, posting a 117.6 offensive rating over their last ten games (9th in the league), while Milwaukee’s at 115.3 (14th). Their first meeting this season was a 245-point OVER with 104 field goal attempts, way past the league’s 178.4-per-game average. The Kings’ defense isn’t helping either, giving up 119 or more in six straight games. With Milwaukee’s pace (100.2) and Sacramento’s (99.3) keeping things moving, this could turn into another shootout. Sacramento is shooting the ball extremely well right now with the 7th best EFG% over their last fifteen games. Milwaukee is not the defensive juggernaut they were in the past as they currently rank 10th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.127-points per possession. This Bucks vs. Kings game goes OVER 222.5 total points comfortably.

#827/828 ASA PLAY ON Over 154.5 Points – BYU vs Wisconsin, Saturday at 7:45 PM ET - Two of the most efficient offenses in the country going at it in Denver in what we expect will be a high scoring game. BYU ranks 10th nationally in offensive efficiency and Wisconsin ranks 13th and they both average 80 PPG which puts them in the top 35 in the country. These 2 teams shooting the highest percentage of 3’s in the tourney (both around 48% of their shots are triples) and they make them at a high rate (37% and 35%). The weakness of both teams on defense is defending the arc with the Badgers ranking 183rd allowing 33% and BYU ranking 243rd giving up 35%. We think both teams will scoring in bunches from deep. This should be a fairly quick tempo as well with Wisconsin completely changing their philosophy and pushing the ball this season while BYU prefers the same. We shouldn’t have many empty possessions as the Badgers are among the best in the country at taking care of the ball (25th in turnovers per game) and while the Cougs do have a tendency to turn it over, Wisconsin doesn’t create many takeaways (327th). We should see plenty of freebies as well with the Badgers getting to the FT line a lot (30th in FT attempts per game) and they make them at over 83% (#1 in the nation). These two have a combined record of 40-29 to the Over this season and we see another shootout on Saturday.

ASA NHL Hurricanes vs. Kings – UNDER 5.5 Goals - Today’s matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Los Angeles Kings presents a strong case for betting the UNDER 5.5 goals, driven by elite defensive play and recent low-scoring trends from both teams. The Hurricanes rank 5th in the NHL in goals allowed per game at 2.60, while the Kings sit just ahead at 3rd with 2.54. Carolina leads the league in preventing shots on goal, allowing the fewest per game, while the Kings are right behind in 2nd place. Fewer shots mean fewer scoring chances, setting the stage for a tight, low-scoring affair. Both squads excel at neutralizing power plays, with their penalty kill percentages ranking in the top 10 league-wide. The Kings have been a moneymaker for the UNDER bettor, with their games staying below 5.5 goals in 5 straight contests and 8 of their last 10. The Hurricanes aren’t far behind, with games involving them dipping below 5.5 goals in 7 of their last 10. With two of the NHL’s best defenses squaring off, expect a grind-it-out battle where scoring chances are at a premium.

#787/798 ASA PLAY ON Over 160 Points – Xavier vs Illinois, Friday at 9:45 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with high level offenses should equal a high scoring game here. The Illini average 84 PPG on the season and they are a top 15 offense in terms of efficiency. They are also a very good offensive rebounding team (18th nationally) so extra opportunities on the offensive end should be available. They are not a good 3 point shooting team, however that speaks to how good their offense is despite that (PPG & efficiency). If they shoot above average from deep, this offense can up piles of points (they put up big time points without doing that). They should do plenty of damage inside ranking 18th in 2 point FG% facing an undersized XU defense that ranks 159th defending inside the arc. Xavier is the 9th best 3 point shooting team in the country and facing an Illinois defense whose weakness is guarding the arc (143rd nationally). Both teams are very good at taking care of the ball so wasted possessions will be few. We should get a bunch of extra points from the FT line as both shoot it very well (79% for XU and 76% for Illinois). The Illini are 18th in adjusted tempo and Xavier is 76th so we’ll have plenty of possessions in this game. A fast paced team with 2 teams that rank in the top 65 nationally in PPP vs OK but not great defenses should lead to big points. We like both to get to 80 in this game giving us an Over.

ASA play on OVER 232 Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30pmET - The OVER 232 looks promising in this matchup. Dallas’ defense has been porous over their last 10 games, allowing a league-worst points in the paint, ranking 23rd in fastbreak points allowed, 24th in second-chance baskets, and 29th in Defensive Rating, while surrendering over 129 points per game. This game should see a ton of possessions, with Detroit ranking 2nd in pace and Dallas 7th over the last 10 games. Offensively, the Pistons are 8th in Effective Field Goal Percentage (EFG%) and have scored 120+ points in three of their last five, while the Mavericks sit at a decent 17th in EFG%. With both teams pushing the tempo and Dallas struggling to stop anyone, expect this one to sail past 232.

ASA play on OVER 226.5 Milwaukee Bucks at LA Lakers – 10:40 pm ET - These two teams met on March 13th in Milwaukee and produced 232 total points. That game was played at an average pace with average shooting by both teams and it climbed OVER the number of 226.5. We expect a very similar result tonight. Milwaukee is coming off a horrible showing against the Warriors a couple of nights ago in which they managed just 17-points in two of the four quarters. The Bucks are the 7th best overall shooting team in the NBA at 47.9% and rank 2nd in 3PT% at 38.3%. Milwaukee ranks 14th in Offensive Efficiency at 1.146-points per possession. The Lakers are 12th in OEFF on the season and have been even more efficient in their last 5-games at 1.176PPP. LA has the 9th best FG% at 47.9% and rank 16th in 3PT% at 35.9%. The Lakers are playing at a faster rate in their last 5 games without LeBron and tempo will play an important role in this OVER. Milwaukee is 11th in pace of play on the season and will look to get out and run against a Lakers defense that allows the 25th most fast break points in the league. Five of the last six meetings between these two teams has flown OVER the total.

#745/746 ASA PLAY ON Under 134 Points - McNeese State vs Clemson, Thursday at 3:15 PM ET (Providence, RI) - These are 2 of the slowest paced teams in the tourney facing off so we do not expect many offensive possessions.  Clemson ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and McNeese ranks 283rd.  What we really like about this match up in regards to the Under, is both defenses make opposing offenses really work to get a decent shot.  Clemson’s opponents average a shot every 19.1 seconds which is the 2nd best mark in the country.  McNeese opponents average a shot every 18.6 seconds which is 19th in the country.  The Tigers had the 2nd best defensive efficiency in the ACC behind only Duke and 16th best in the nation.  The Cowboys were by far the best defensive team (efficiency) in the Southland and they rank 66th nationally.  Against higher level offensive teams early in the season, McNeese held Alabama (#1 scoring offense in the country) to 72 points, the Tide’s 2nd lowest point total of the year and 19 points below their season average.  They also held Mississippi State to 66 points (they average 80 PPG) and they held Liberty, NCAA tourney team and one of the best shooting teams in the country, to 62 points which was also their season low.  Both create defensive turnovers at a high rate (both #1 in their conferences) which leads to empty possessions for their opponent.  Clemson held 11 of their final 13 opponents to less than 70 points with only Duke (#3 nationally in offensive efficiency) and Louisville (#29 in offensive efficiency) topping that number.  McNeese only allowed 7 of their 31 opponents this season to top 70 points.  This has the makings of a low possession (low 60’s?), defensive battle and we’ll grab the Under.

#747/748 ASA PLAY ON Over 152 Points – High Point vs Purdue, Thursday at 12:40 PM ET - We expect both offense to have a lot of success in this one. Both rank in the top 10 nationally in FG% and Purdue ranks 7th nationally in offensive efficiency while High Point steps in at 25th in that metric. While the Panthers are really good offensively (18th nationally averaging 82 PPG) they are really poor defensively. Their defensive efficiency ranks 227th which is the 6th worst mark in the 68 team NCAA field. Their pick and roll defense is really poor which is bad news facing a Purdue team with PG Smith and F Kaufman-Renn are as good as any duo in the country at P&R offense. The top P&R offense in the Big South, UNC Asheville, lit the High Point defense up for 103 and 86 points in their 2 meetings and they are nowhere near the same level as this Purdue offense. On the other end, High Point should be able to put up points vs this Purdue defense that was way down from previous editions ranking 12th in the Big 10 in eFG% allowed and dead last in 2 points FG% allowed. The Panthers are a very good 3 point shooting team (36.6% and all of their top 7 players hit at least 33% from deep) but they like to work inside the arc as well where they rank 15th in the country in 2 point FG% which matches up well against the Boiler defense. Both offenses are very solid at protecting the ball and above average offensive rebounding teams so both should have decent shot volume numbers in this game (both top 70 in FG’s made per game). High Point is going to have to put the ball in the hoop to keep up here because they won’t be able to stop Purdue. We think the Panthers can do that and this one sails Over the Total.

ASA play on OVER 217.5 Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, 7:40pm ET - This game has all the makings of an ‘average’ NBA game which is great for our OVER bet. The average total points scored in an NBA game this season and for the last several years is 227.4 total points per game. Obviously, if these two play ‘average’ it goes OVER easily. In fact, our math model is projecting 221.6 total points being scored. This will be the fourth and final meeting of the season for these two teams. On October 28th they combined for 204 total points. In mid-November and mid-December, they played two OT games, but in regulation they totaled 228 and 222. Miami has had some problems scoring of late with four straight games of 104 or less points but they’ve also come against good defensive teams. Detroit is top 8 in Defensive Efficiency ratings this season, but they should have some success with their 3PT shooting against a Pistons D that ranks 22nd in 3PT% allowed. Detroit plays with pace and is the 7th fastest tempo team in the league at 100 possessions per game. We are not asking these two teams to score 235 or anything ridiculous, just be average and we cash an easy win.

ASA NHL play on Colorado Avalanche vs. Toronto Maple Leafs – Over 5.5 Goals - Take the Over 5.5 Goals in tonight’s clash between the Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs. These two high-octane offenses have a proven track record of lighting up the scoreboard against each other. In their most recent meeting, they combined for a whopping 11 goals, and the trend doesn’t stop there. Over the last three straight head-to-head matchups, they’ve hit 7 or more goals each time, and in 6 of their last 7 meetings, the nets have been buzzing. With Colorado’s explosive attack (averaging around 3.4 goals per game) facing Toronto’s leaky defense, and the Leafs’ potent offense (around 3.3 goals per game) testing Colorado’s blueline, expect another goal-fest. The Over is the play here.

ASA play on UNDER 228 Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors, 10:10 pm ET - We were fortunate to bet this game UNDER 234 when it opened but now find this number at 229 with the announcement Steph Curry will not play tonight. We still feel there is value in this UNDER as long as it stays above 227. If we examine recent trends for both teams we find that both teams have been excellent defensively in their last 15 games. The Warriors Defensive Net rating of 108.2 ranks 3rd best, the Bucks 109.7 ranks 5th. When we look at each teams season numbers offensively we find both rank near league average in Offensive Net ratings with the Bucks 14th the Warriors 16th. Golden State is off a game last night against the Nuggets and when playing without rest this season they have stayed UNDER in 7 of eleven games by an average of -11.4ppg. The Bucks are 9-13 UNDER this season against the Western Conference. The Bucks have recently faced three similar defenses to the Warriors and struggled offensively scoring 105 against the Thunder, 100 vs. Cleveland and 109 against the Magic. Golden State’s offense has sputtered in two straight games, managing 97 points against the Knicks and 105 last night versus Denver.

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadians, 7:07pm ET - For the Ottawa Senators, through 66 games, they’ve scored 194 goals and allowed 185 goals or 2.94 GF/GP and 2.80 GA/GP. For the Montreal Canadiens, through 66 games, they’ve scored 195 goals and allowed 214 goals: 2.95 GF/GP and 3.24 GA/GP. In a head-to-head scenario, we typically model it as each team’s offense versus the other’s defense and factor in the efficiency rates for both teams. In this matchup our model is projecting 5.88 total goals being scored. These two teams have met twice already this season with the Canadians winning both 4-1 and 5-2. In the last eight meetings one of the two teams has scored 4+ goals and all eight have finished with 5 or more total goals being scored. Ottawa has played in three straight higher scoring games with 7, 8 and 6 total goals being scored. Montreal’s last three games have finished with 4, 9 and 6 total goals.

#643/644 ASA PLAY ON Under 144 Points - Florida vs Tennessee, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This total opened 140 and has crept up to 143.5 and 144.  Too high in our opinion.  We understand why with the Gators coming of 2 very high scoring games in this SEC tourney vs Missouri (176 total points) and Alabama (186 total points).  Florida went off on offense averaging 1.30 and 1.33 PPP in those 2 wins.  Those were ultra fast paced games with 73 and 78 possessions vs defensive teams that didn’t match  up very well with the Gators.  Now we have a Tennessee team that will slow this game down and they match up very well defensively vs Florida who like to get out in transition.  In the first meeting the Vols did allow 18 points on the break which was the most they’ve given up this season.  They made adjustments in the second meeting and Florida had only 8 fast break points.  You can bet UT will make sure the Gators can’t get out and run today.  On the other side, the Vols aren’t a great shooting team ranking 8th in the SEC in 3 point FG% and 11th in 2 point FG% and they are running into a high level Florida defense that is 7th nationally in defensive efficiency (Tenn is 3rd nationally in that metric).  When it comes to eFG% defense, Tennessee ranks #1 in the country and Florida #6.  Both of these defenses are elite.  In their 2 meetings this year they totaled 116 points (73-43 Florida win) and 110 points (64-44 Tennessee win).  As you can see, only 1 team topped 70 in those 2 meetings and twice they were held under 50 points.  These 2 defenses are fantastic defending the arc (1st and 7th nationally) and it showed in those 2 meetings where they combined to go 20 of 98 from 3.  These teams know each other very well and obviously know how to defend the opposing offense.  They’ve had 4 straight Unders in this series with 3 of those games failing to top 123 total points.  We don’t think either team gets to 70 points here so grabbing the Under.

ASA play on UNDER 235.5 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10pm ET - These two teams really don’t like each other and this matchup has become one of the better current rivalries in the NBA. They just met in Indiana earlier in the week and produced 229 total points when Haliburton converted a 4-point play late for the win. The takeaway from that game was the total field goal attempts which was 171, lower than a regular NBA game of 178.4. Both teams shot above expectations at 51% which is better than their season average of 48.9% and 48.1%. This game has a playoff feel to it and we expect both defenses to step up and make every shot difficult. If you exclude OT these two have stayed UNDER this number in 7 of the last nine meetings. Indiana is coming off a game last night and have favored the UNDER when playing without rest at 4-6 this season. Milwaukee also has a slight tendency to play UNDER with a rest advantage with a 16-18-1 record. Indiana has stayed UNDER in 4 straight games and 8 of their last ten. In each teams last ten games the defenses have been above average with the Pacers ranking 13th in Net Rating, the Bucks are 5th. Both teams are also closer to average in Offensive Net rating at 116.0 and 116.4. Our math model tells us this game will be closer to the league average of 227.4 total points per game than the oddsmakers number of 235.

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS Tampa Bay at Boston – 7:07 pm ET - Boston has scored 3 or more goals in 4 of their last five games and they’ve allowed 6 goals in 2 of their last five. Tampa Bay has had some issues defensively allowing 4 or more goals in four straight games. The Lightning have also produced 3 or more goals in 3 of their last five and put up 6 goals twice. Tampa Bay is 2nd in the NHL in Goals for per game at 3.49, Boston is 25th a 2.72. Boston is allowing 3.15 goals against, the Lightning allow 2.69. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league is shots against so both should get plenty of opportunities to put shots on goal. In the last seven head-to-head meetings one of the two teams has scored 3 goals. In the last three meetings one team has put up 4 or more goals. We are betting 6 or more goals get scored in this one.

#609/610 ASA PLAY ON Under 145.5 Points – Wisconsin vs Michigan State, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We were on MSU vs Oregon Under yesterday and we’re coming right back with another Under on Saturday. MSU ranks 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency and since mid February they rank 1st in the country in that metric. Yesterday they completely shut down Oregon from beyond the arc (21% shooting) and allowed just 64 points. The Spartans have held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 66 points or less including limiting Wisconsin to just 62 points on March 2nd. The Badgers shot just 34% and made only 5 triples in that 71-62 loss. On Friday they lit up UCLA shooting 52% and hit 19 three pointers and we anticipate they come nowhere near that on Saturday vs Sparty. While Wisconsin’s offense has been talked about all season, their defense has quietly become really good. Their defense has moved into the top 30 nationally in efficiency and since February 1st they rank 23rd in that metric. They held the Spartans to less than 1.00 PPP in their meeting a few weeks ago. MSU did hit 47% of their 3’s yesterday (and the game still only reached 138) and that is not the norm for this team who averages 30% from beyond the arc (324th nationally). The Spartan defense is set up perfectly to defend Wisconsin’s 3 point attack as they allow just 27% on the season (2nd nationally) and held the Badgers to 5 of 32 from deep on March 2nd. This has been a defensive series with only 1 of the last 6 meetings topping 134 points and the average total points scored in those 6 meetings was 134. Tired legs could be a factor in shooting success on Saturday with Wisconsin playing their 3rd game in 3 days and MSU playing their 2nd in back to back days. These teams know each other very well and we’ll call for a lower scoring game than expected.

#825/826 ASA PLAY ON Under 148 Points - Wichita State vs Memphis, Friday at 1 PM ET - In their 2 meetings this season, these AAC foes totaled 114 and 142 (in regulation) and both games were under 70 possessions in regulation (one went to double OT).  The teams dominated on the defensive end in those meetings with PPP numbers (efficiency) of 1.09, 1.03, 0.90, and 0.77.  Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot (12th and 13th in the AAC in offensive turnover rate) and that leads to empty possessions.  In fact, in their 2 meetings this season there were a whopping 60 combined turnovers.  Memphis likes to play fast but it was obvious with the tempo results of the 2 games that Wichita wants to make this a slower paced game.  Their offense isn’t good enough (283rd in offensive efficiency and 349th in 3 point FG%) to win a high scoring affair so we expect another game with the possessions in the 60’s.  Both defenses are very solid ranking #1 (Memphis) and #4 in efficiency in conference play.  Neither team takes many 3 pointers with the Shockers ranking 358th in 3 point attempts and the Tigers 299th.  They only combined to make 23 triples in their 2 games this season and shot just 39% from the field.  Neither team topped 71 points in either game in regulation and we don’t think they will here.  Under.

#813/814 ASA PLAY ON Under 143.5 Points – Michigan State vs Oregon, Friday at 12 PM ET - MSU is one of the top defensive teams in the country (5th nationally in defensive efficiency) and Oregon is no slouch (30th nationally in defensive efficiency).  Sparty has been great on defense all season long and the Ducks have upped their game on that end of the court over the last month.  In fact, Oregon has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP including a Wisconsin offense that ranks 12th nationally averaging 1.23 PPP.  In fact, since mid February the Ducks defense ranks 12th in the country in efficiency and MSU ranks 2nd.  The Spartans have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 66 points or less including potent offensive teams Wisconsin, Purdue, and Illinois (all top 15 nationally in offensive efficiency).  Oregon has had 2 OT games over their last 7, however if we strictly look at regulation, they’ve also held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 68 points or less.  These 2 met once this season and they total was set at 146 and despite the 2 teams going well Over the total hitting 160 total points, the total for this game is set lower.  In that first meeting, there were 69 possessions which isn’t a lot, although we expect fewer today, MSU’s defense was terrible (very rare) in the first half allowing 50 total points to the Ducks, then held them to 24 in the 2nd half.  Then Sparty put up 50 in the 2nd half after scoring just 36 in the first half.  Both teams offensive efficiency was MUCH higher than these defenses normally allow, they combined to make 40% of their 45 three point attempts and they combined to make 40 FT’s.  We don’t see either repeating that offensive performance against defenses playing at their peak right now in a tense, tournament format.  Oregon is 50/50 on Over/Unders this season but MSU is 21-10 to the Under this season.  Buckets will be tough to come by in this game.  Let’s go Under.

ASA play on OVER 233 Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors, 10 pm ET - These teams met in late February and produced 240 total points and OVER 237. In two meetings in January they produced 240 and 228 total points. The OVER is 5-1 the last six meetings. Scheduling favors an OVER wager here too as both teams tend to play in higher scoring games with 2-3 days rest. Combined they are 9-15-1 to the OVER in this scheduling situation. When it comes to playing within the Division, these two are a combined 15-9 OVER this season. In each teams last 10 games the offenses have been humming with the Warriors ranking 3rd in Offensive Net Rating, the Kings are 8th. These two teams rank 10th and 11th in EFG% so both are shooting the rock well in this 10-game stretch. The Warriors are going to have success from beyond the arc with the 13th best 3PT% going up against a Kings D that ranks 29th in opponents FG% defense. The Kings are going to score with volume (7th in field goal attempts this season) and good shooting (10th in FG%). There is some value in this number which is 4-points lower than the number set on these same two teams just a few weeks ago.

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Under 132.5 Points - Abilene Christian vs Seattle, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These 2 met twice this season and totaled 130 and 134 points and this number is basically set right in the middle of those 2 performances. Neither team topped 1.04 PPP in either game and 2 of the 4 offensive data points were less than 1.00 PPP. We don’t expect that to change here in a do or die setting on a neutral site (unfamiliar court). Both defenses are high level ranking the top 100 nationally in efficiency while offensive they both rank outside the top 325 in eFG%. Neither team scores much from 3 (270th and 361st in 3’s made per game) and they simply don’t shoot well from deep when they do get looks (257th and 321st in 3 point FG%). The shot volume for each team should be low in this one as both create turnovers at a high level (which leads to wasted offensive possessions) and neither are good offensive rebounding teams (which limits 2nd chances). In their 2 meetings this season, both teams in both games had turnover rates of higher than 20% which is really poor. Seattle is the slowest paced team in the WAC and while ACU prefers a faster pace, the slower team usually gets their tempo so expect a lower possession game (67.5 average possessions in first 2 meetings). Seattle’s defense allows just 59 PPG in league play and they’ve allowed 67 points or less in 8 of their last 9 games, including 5 of those opponents failing to reach 60 points. In ACU’s games vs the 3 slowest paced teams in the league (Seattle, Cal Baptist and Tarleton St) the total points scored were 130, 134, 119, 143, 123, and 114 points for an average of 127. Let’s go Under in this one.

#663/664 ASA PLAY ON Under 138.5 Points - Charlotte vs Rice, Wednesday at 1 PM ET - These 2 met twice this season in 2 very slow paced games and we expect the same on Wednesday. In their first meeting Rice won 66-58 in a game that had only 57 possessions. The Owls averaged 1.19 PPP in that win which is way above their AAC average of 1.08. Rice averaged only 0.96 PPP which was good but not far off their 1.03 PPP in conference play. The teams combined to shoot almost 42% which is dead on their season averages. The 2nd meeting only had 60 possessions but the 2 offenses went crazy for a 78-75 final score. They averaged 1.23 and 1.28 PPP which is WAY above their averages which we posted above. They also combined to make 23 of 47 three pointers and 38 made FT’s. The 49 attempts FT’s in the 2nd meeting were 10 more than these 2 allow combined on the season. Definitely an outlier offensive performance from both teams. Both teams rank outside the top 300 nationally in offensive FG%. Along with that they rank 298th and 183rd in 3 point FG% so we don’t look for a lights out shooting game on a neutral site in Denton, TX. If they don’t send each other to the FT line 50 times like the 2nd meeting, this should stay in the high 120’s, low 130’s. Under.

#629/630 ASA PLAY ON Over 145.5 Points – Montana State vs Northern Colorado, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some value on this total in our opinion. These 2 faced off twice this season and the totals set in those games were 152.5 and 149.5 and now we’re getting a total set 2+ possessions lower than that. Their first meeting was high scoring with NCU winning 83-82 coming back from 20 points down to pick up the road win. The more recent meeting in February ended with a final of 73-66 with NCU again coming out on top. In that game both teams played below their season offensive efficiency numbers (conference play) and by a decent margin. They combined to shoot barely 40% from the field which was also well below their season averages of 51% for NCU and 46% for MSU. Even with the offensive struggles, they still nearly got to 140 and this total is only 5 to 6 points higher than that. Montana State’s offense has been really good their last 3 games since benching leading scorer, big man Brandon Walker who was a high usage, ball stopper when it came to offensive ball movement. Since his benching, the Bobcats have topped their season PPP average (efficiency) in each of those 3 games. They are shooting 53% during that stretch while putting g up 81 PPG. They really don’t need to come close to those numbers in this game for it to go Over, just keep playing well offensively which we expect them to do. NCU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation at 51% (#1 in the country) and 38% from beyond the arc (28th in the nation). They average 81 PPG on the season and they’ve put up at least 75 points in 13 of their 18 Big Sky games so far this season. The Bears last 2 games were fairly low scoring, however they were both vs Weber State who is a slow paced team with a bad offense (275th in offensive efficiency). Prior to that NCU had 4 straight games that reached at least 153 total points. This should be a close game so we don’t anticipate one team grabbing a big lead and coasting, both will have to “keep up” offensively. Over is the play in this Big Sky semifinal game.

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS (-130) Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild – 8pm ET - The situation is ripe for a shootout between these two teams in what shapes up to be a higher scoring game. The Wild are 11th defensively in goals against per game of 2.86 for the season and in recent action they have allowed 3 or more goals in 8 of their last nine games. Colorado is giving up an average of 2.95 goals per game which ranks 16th in the NHL. The Avs clearly have the better offensive number ranking 6th in total goals this season while averaging 3.36 per game. Minnesota is further down the rankings at 2.77 goals per game which ranks 25th. Colorado is coming off a game on Monday and have gone OVER in 5 of eight this season without rest. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams has finished with 7 goals. The Wild have just two total goals in their last two games but they did have 68 total shots on goal and if they get 30 plus attempts here the sheer volume should result in several goals.

ASA play on OVER 238 Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm ET - In this game we get two top 10 shooting teams with the Suns hitting 47.7% for the season overall and 37.8% from the 3-point line (4th). The Nuggets rank 1st in team FG% at 50.7%, 3rd in 3PT% at 38%. Denver is the 2nd best team in the league in Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.20PPP, the Suns rank 9th at 1.158PPP. Neither team plays much defense with the Nuggets ranking 18th in DEFF, Phoenix is worse yet, ranking 27th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.179-points per possession. Phoenix has allowed 116 or more points in 9 of their last ten games and Denver is putting up an average of 121.9ppg in their last ten games. We like the current betting trends as more money and tickets have come in on the under in this game, yet the line is trending up which suggests smart money action. Bet the OVER in this one.

#841/842 ASA PLAY ON Under 141.5 Points – Colorado State vs Boise State, Friday at 10 PM ET - These 2 MWC rivals met in late January and CSU won 75-72 with the total set at 140. There were only 62 possessions in that game but both offenses performed above their average efficiency in conference play. They scored 20 points in the final 3:00 minutes (game was at 127 with just over 3:00 remaining) to push it over. They combined to shoot 49% overall and 40.5% from beyond the arc, both above their season averages. This is a battle for 2nd place in the MWC and we expect the intensity level on the defensive end to be high for this match up in another low possession game. Both teams are playing outstanding right now on the defensive end of the court. Per Haslam Metrics, CSU has outperformed their expected defensive metrics in 5 of their last 6 games while Boise has done the same in 7 of their last 10 games. Per Bart Torvik analytics, since mid February, CSU ranks in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency and Boise in the top 60. The Rams are on a 6 game winning streak in which they’ve allowed an average of 59 PPG. Boise has allowed just 62 PPG over their last 10 games and they’ve allowed just 1 team to reach 70 points during that run. CSU has allowed only 3 teams to reach 70 points in their last 10 games. We expect another low possession game (241st and 265th in adjusted tempo) with not a lot of scoring opportunities (these 2 rank 294th and 312th in shot attempts per game). We don’t think either team tops 70 in this game which lands us on the Under.

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Over 149.5 Points – Illinois Chicago vs Valparaiso, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - These 2 just played to close out the regular season on Sunday and hit 150 total points with UIC winning 77-73.  That game had 75 possessions, which was to be expected with these teams ranking 3rd and 4th in Horizon League tempo.  They got to 150 points despite the offensive efficiency numbers being quite low with UIC averaging 1.01 PPP (they average 1.08) and Valpo put up just 0.96 (they average 1.07).  That was their 2nd meeting of the season with the first one hitting 155 total points (with UIC winning 81-74).  In the 2 meetings they shot just 43% (108 of 250) overall and 33% from beyond the arc (27 of 81) so nothing great.  In fact those numbers are below both team’s season average and both meetings still pushed into the 150’s.  Defensively both teams rank outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  If these teams step it up on offense and just hit their averages, this should get well into the 150’s or higher.

ASA play on UNDER 219.5 Detroit Pistons at LA Clippers, 10:40pm ET - These two teams recently met in Detroit and produced 203 total points with the Pistons winning at home 106-97. The Clippers were coming off a game the night before and simply didn’t have the juice on the second night of a back-to-back. That has been a theme for the Clippers who are 3-9 UNDER this season when playing without rest. If the second game of that 2-game leg is at home, where they are on a 5 straight UNDER streak (5-1 for the year). L.A. is off a pair of big games against the Lakers then played Tuesday in Phoenix so fatigue will be a factor. The Pistons are coming off a 134-106 win against the 15-win Jazz who have the worst Defensive Efficiency stats in the NBA. Tonight, Detroit will face a Clippers team that is 4th on the season in DEFF allowing just 1.102-points per possession. The Pistons defense is 11th on the season in Defensive Efficiency. Detroit has faced a handful of teams recently that rank in the top half of the league in pace of play which has led to a few higher scoring games. Tonight, they face a Clippers team that prefers to play slow, ranking 17th in pace. Offensively the Pistons are 14th in OEFF, the Clippers are 22nd. We like UNDER in this one.

#707/708 ASA PLAY ON OVER 160.5 Points - Missouri vs Oklahoma, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - One very interesting aspect of this match up is that this total is set 9 points higher than the first meeting on February 12th despite that game going Under the Total. That’s a tip off in our opinion. When these to met @ Mizzou the final score was 82-58 in favor of the Tigers so well Under that posted total which was 152. Both teams played well under their offensive efficiency averages in that game (PPP) with Missouri putting up 1.11 PPP (they average 1.26) and Oklahoma 0.78 PPP (they average 1.18). The teams combined to make only 9 three point shots in 34 attempts (26%). On the season they combine to average 18 three point makes per game and both shoot around 37% from deep so that meeting was way below expectation. Both like to play up tempo and there were 74 possession in the first meeting and we’d expect a similar number here. The Sooners offense averages 83 PPG at home and they rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency. Defense is not their specialty as they’ve allowed at least 80 points in 7 of their last 80 games. The Missouri offense ranks 5th in the country in offensive efficiency and they’ve scored at least 80 points in 9 of their last 10 games. While we expect both offenses to play to a much higher efficiency in this game, the one thing we can probably count on is a lot of points from the FT line. In the first game they combined to make 43 FT’s which isn’t a surprise as they each rank in the top 15 nationally in FT’s made per game. If they duplicate, or even get close, to that number while pushing their averages in offensive efficiency, this should be an easy over. Both get to at least 80 points pushing this one Over.

ASA play on OVER 227 Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10pm ET - This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these two Eastern Conference foes and we predict another OVER and higher scoring game. In the first two clashes these two teams combined for 235 and 232 total points. Both teams shot extremely well in both games. Cleveland is the best offensive team in the NBA averaging 1.229-points per possession. They have the best overall EFG% at 58.7% and are putting up 124ppg at home this season. Miami’s defense is not what it used to be as they rank 13th in DEFF allowing 1.134PPP. Miami is 12th in OEFF and makes a living with 3-point shooting. The Heat rank 10th in made 3-pointers, 11th in attempts and 14th in 3PT%. The Cavs defense is very good, but they do struggle to defend the 3-point line allowing 36% shooting by opponents which ranks 19th in the league. The Cavs are coming off a game last night and when they play without rest they are 9-3 OVER this season with those games going OVER by an average of +8.9ppg. This game will get into the 230’s.

#863/864 ASA PLAY ON Under 131.5 Points - UCLA vs Northwestern, Monday at 9 PM ET - This game should have very few offensive possessions with these teams ranking 317th and 318th in adjusted tempo, 16th and 17th in conference play only out of 18 teams. NW has slowed the pace down even more since losing their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers (Barnhizer & Leach) for the season to injuries. The only way they can compete after losing that offensive firepower, those 2 combined to average 32 PPG, is to turn their games into slugfests which is exactly what they’ve done. After going on a big run of Overs this season, the Cats have now gone Under the total in 3 of their last 4 games. Their most recent game vs Iowa was a snapshot of exactly how they want to play. The Hawkeyes are one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and are averaging 82 PPG on the year which puts them in the top 15 nationally. Last Friday night, the Cats slowed their game with Iowa to a crawl (just 61 possessions) and held the high scoring Hawks to just 57 points (68-57 final score). The NW defense has been lights out holding 4 straight opponents to 1.00 PPP or less holding those 4 opponents to 59 PPG. The Wildcat offense has actually played OK during that stretch averaging 69 PPG, however now they run into a physical UCLA defense that has much better numbers efficiency wise (17th nationally in defensive efficiency) than any of NW’s recent opponents. The Bruins have held 7 of their last 10 opponents to 68 points or fewer with only Purdue, Illinois, and USC topping that number. Those offenses rank 1st, 3rd and 8th in offensive efficiency in the Big 10. Tonight the Bruins face a Northwestern offense thar ranks 18th (dead last) in the conference in eFG% and that was with 2 of their top scorers playing the vast majority of the season to this point. With those 2 gone, we don’t see much success for the Cats offense in this one. This should be a low possession, low scoring game with both defenses dominating. Take the Under.

ASA play on UNDER 254 Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - Our Math Model is projecting 236 total points on this game and even though we have the two fastest paced teams in the NBA facing off, we have to bet UNDER. Combined these two teams have had an O/U set of 250 or higher just one time in 160 total games this season. That was a game the Grizzlies were involved in against the Pacers which finished with 240 total points. Atlanta is 21st in Offensive Efficiency and 17th in Defensive Efficiency. Memphis is 6th in OEFF, 9th in DEFF. In the only other meeting this season between these two teams the O/U was set at 232.5 or a full 20+ points lower than tonight’s number. They combined for 240 points in that game. Atlanta has 3 big games on deck as they face the Bucks tomorrow night then the Pacers twice. Memphis has a huge 2 games looming against the Thunder and Mavericks. We doubt either team is interested in turning this game into a track meet and let’s face it, all it will take is one bad quarter by either team and they don’t get to 250. Bet UNDER.

ASA play on OVER 220.5 NY Knicks at Miami Heat, 6:10pm ET - We feel the oddsmakers had the correct line on this game when they opened with 224 on this Over/Under and will now bet the value on OVER 221. For the older bettors, this is not the old days when Van Gundy/Ewing and the Knicks battled the Riley/Morning led Heat in a defensive mid-80’s type game. Gone are the days of playing defense and physicality in the NBA as it’s all about scoring and 3’s now. On the season the Heat rank 12th in Defensive Efficiency but in their last 5 games they fall to 18th. The Knicks rank 22nd in DEFF on the year, 25th in their last 5 games. The Knicks beat teams with an offense that is 2nd in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency, has the 3rd best FG% at 49% and the 6th best 3PT% at 37%. New York should get plenty of good looks against a Miami defense that is 14th in FG% D overall and 17th in 3PT% defense. Miami is 12th on the season in OEFF at 1.124-points per possession and since the Butler trade has been better yet at 1.166PPP. Both teams have favored the OVER this season with a combined 65-52 record. When Miami has been a home underdog the OVER has cashed 6 of eight times. As a road favorite the Knicks are 12-9 OVER this season. In Conference games these two have a combined 42-33 OVER record. At the end of the day we are betting value in numbers and this line is to high.

ASA PLAY ON Under 147.5 Points – Wisconsin vs Michigan State, Sunday at 1:30 PM ET - MSU has been an Under machine with 19 Unders in their 28 games so far this season and they are 6-2 to the Under at home in Big 10 play.  They have the top defense in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  Sparty is allowing just 66 PPG in league play (#1 in the conference) and they allow that same number at home for the entire season.  Sparty has been able to slow down some very high level offenses this season limiting Illinois to 65, Purdue to 66, Michigan to 62, and Maryland to 55, all top 5 Big 10 offenses (efficiency).  MSU is one of the slower paced teams in the conference (14th in adjusted tempo) and while Wisconsin is playing faster this year, they still rank just 11th in the Big 10 in adjusted tempo.  The Badger defense struggled at times early in the season, but they’ve really played well over the last month and half or so vaulting all the way up to 3rd in the conference in defensive efficiency and 4th in defensive scoring allowed.  Since late January the Wisconsin defense is rated in the top 25 in efficiency per Bart Torvik.  They’ve held 10 of their last 14 opponents to less than 70 points.  This game has huge implications in the race for the Big 10 Title with MSU in 1st place and Wisconsin in 3rd.  We think defense rules the day in this one.  These 2 have only reached 150 points twice in their last 10 meetings and the average total points scored in those match ups is just 136.  Take the Under.