ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Winnipeg Jets Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Detroit Red Wings, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

The Red Wings are having a horrible season and now have lost 11 straight games.  That being said, the biggest fear in playing the Jets here is that they might overlook Detroit.  However, that is not going to happen in this case because this is the front end of a home and home set between these clubs.  Knowing their next game is on the road, Winnipeg (on a 6-1-1 run as a host) wants to make sure they take advantage of home ice here.  Knowing their next game is against the Red Wings, the Jets will of course be fully focused on Detroit in this one.  That is bad news for the Red Wings and that is a key reason as to why Winnipeg is a -250 money line favorite in this match-up.  That price is very high with good reason and the value with this match-up, as a result, is the puck line!  The Jets at -1.5 goals are priced close to break even or at -105.  This is a great value considering that each of the Red Wings last 7 games have been losses by a margin of 2 or more goals.  In fact, those 7 defeats have come by a an average margin of 3.6 goals per game.  The Jets most recent win came by just a single goal but their three preceding wins all came by 3 or more goals.  Per our computer math model, this will be another win by a multiple-goal margin for the Jets as the Red Wings suffer a 12th straight loss - and 8th straight defeat by 2 or more goals.  Laying the 1.5 goals (and laying a very fair price, currently in -105 range) with Winnipeg is the value play here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Hofstra -4 over Stony Brook, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

Hofstra was 27-8 last year and while they lost leading scorer Justin Wright-Foreman they do return a number of key players from last season including 3 starters and their top reserve.  They have started slower than they expected with a 6-4 record, however they have played only 3 home games on the season.  In fact, their last home game was nearly a month ago on November 15th.  They have won 20 of their last 22 home games and they are coming off an embarrassing 73-45 loss @ St Bonnies on Saturday so we expect a big effort here.  Stony Brook comes in with a 7-3 record but 6 of their wins have come against teams ranked 235th or lower.  Their lone decent win came against North Dakota State (ranked 157th) winning by 7 on a neutral court.  The Seawolves have also been very shaky on the road this year where they are 2-2 with their wins coming vs Wagner (ranked 330th) by 3 points in OT and vs Texas A&M Corpus Christie (ranked 305th) by 5 points.  They are shooting just 39% from the field in those 4 road games.  Hofstra is shooting over 47% in their 3 home games while averaging 85 PPG.  They have 9 days off after this so absolutely no look ahead, plus they’ve been away from home for a month as we mentioned.  Stony Brook, on the other hand, is coming off 2 easy wins at home vs weaker competition and they have a huge game on deck with Providence this weekend.  Getting a very solid Hofstra team at home in this spot with a manageable number is very nice value.

ASA 10* PLAY ON NY Giants +105 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

We anticipate the Giants rallying around QB Eli Manning who steps in for his first start since September 15th.  He had fairly solid numbers in those 2 starts with 556 yards passing, 63% completion rate (vs Cowboys and Bills).  The organization, however, was ready to move on and see what Daniel Jones could do.  Jones looked decent early but he has now lost 8 in a row (2-6 ATS) as defenses have figured him out.  He’s also been a turnover machine with 21 giveaways in his 11 games.  Manning will be an upgrade tonight as he is rested and ready to go.  The Eagles are way too inconsistent to be laying double digits in this game.  They have lost 3 in a row to drop to 5-7, including a 37-31 setback @ Miami last week.  The Eagles have been outgained in 6 of their last 9 games and they’ve been held to 22 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games.  Those numbers make it tough to see them as nearly a 10 point favorite here.  This is also a division game which we feel favors the big dog here.  Looking at Philly’s last 18 wins over NY, only 6 have come by more than 10 points.  Take the points here. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams +1 over Seattle, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

This line opened with the Seahawks favored by -2.5 and has dropped despite nearly 70% of the tickets coming in on Seattle.  We agree with the move and like the Rams here.  Seattle is on a short week coming off a 37-30 home win over Minnesota.   Seattle is now 9-1 SU this year in one score games so they are far from a dominant team despite their 10-2 record.  In fact, if you line these two teams up on a point differential and YPG differential basis, they are almost identical despite the 3 game difference in the standings.  The Rams are +33 points on the season and +43 YPG on the year while the Seahawks are +36 PPG and +21 YPG on the season.  The Rams have a HUGE edge defensively allowing just 4.9 YPP (4th in the NFL) to Seattle’s 5.8 YPP allowed (24th in the NFL).  Seattle has a slight edge offensively (5.9 YPP to 5.8 YPP) but the Rams seemed to get their momentum back offensively last week putting up a season high 550 yards @ Arizona.  These two met earlier this year and the Rams were +2 in that game @ Seattle and now the spread is in the same neighborhood at home.  The gives us value on LA here.  IN that first meeting the Rams outgained Seattle putting up 477 yards but missed a FG as time expired in the 30-29 loss.  LA has outgained 10 of their 12 opponents and they are better than their record.  They are also 11-4 SU at home in division games since Sean McVay took over as head coach.  This is a much bigger game for the Rams who are fighting for their playoff lives currently 1 game out of the final wildcard spot.  We like the Rams to win this game.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

This line just a few weeks ago would have had Oakland favored and now, because of recent results, they are getting a full FG at home.  The Raiders won 3 consecutive home games in beginning in early November before taking the road and losing @ NY Jets & @ KC the last 2 weeks.  Last week’s 40-9 loss was extremely misleading as Oakland actually outgained the Chiefs by 73 yards (5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP) and held the potent KC offense to less than 300 yards of total offense.  Three first half turnovers led to 14 KC points and put Oakland in a quick 21-0 hole which they couldn’t climb out of.  They catch an overvalued Tennessee team coming off a huge division win @ Indy last Sunday.  The Titans were outgained by the Colts and the game swung on a blocked FG returned for a TD with the game tied at 17-17.  Tennessee has won 5 of their last 6 but they’ve been outgained in half of those games (3).  Because of the Titan’s run, we are getting solid value here.  Just a few weeks ago Tennessee was +3.5 @ Carolina who is rated almost dead even with Oakland in our power ratings and now the Titans are laying a full FG.  Both teams are fighting for the playoffs and only one game separates them with Oakland at 6-6 and Tennessee at 7-5.  The fact is Oakland has been very good at home this year with a 5-1 record and their only loss here coming vs Kansas City.  They catch the Titans in a perfect sandwich spot off a huge division road win, on the road for the 2nd straight week and a game with division leader Houston on deck.  We like the Raiders to win this one outright so we’ll take the points.

(FIRST HALF LINE) ASA PLAY ON 9* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) over Wisconsin Badgers, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #120 (FIRST HALF LINE)

NOTE - Play FIRST HALF LINE if you can but, of course, if you can not then play this on the full game line. - We’ve released 3 first half bets this season and won all 3 and expect another here. We look for OSU to come out and jump on Wisconsin in this game. They learned their lesson in their first match up when the Badgers tried to turn the game into a grinder with 17 rushing attempts in 26 first half plays. They were able to stick to that game plan because OSU struggled on offense early and had to punt on their first 3 possessions. Even with the Buckeyes not playing great offensively in the first half, they still led 10-0 at half which would cover this number. After their slow start the Buckeye offense figured out the Wisconsin defense ripping off 38 points in the final 37:00 minutes of game time. They scored points on 6 of their final 8 possessions including 5 TD’s. On their last possession they were moving the ball again but ended the game taking knee at Wisconsin’s 30-yard line and we have no doubt they would have scored again if time warranted. The Badgers only points in that game came on a TD on a 30-yard drive following a blocked punt. Now we do expect UW to have more success offensively in this game, we also believe OSU will get off to a quick lead in this game and never look back. No slow start here for the Bucks in perfect conditions @ Indy. Remember, their lone meeting was @ OSU in windy conditions. That would favor Wisconsin but ideal conditions favor OSU’s speed on offense for sure. The Buckeyes have jumped on teams early all season. Their lowest margin at half this season was +10 vs Wisconsin and we gave you some thoughts on why that happened. They have outscored their opponents 367 to 57 in the first half this year for an average margin of +26 points at the break. We like OSU in the game a bit but have our reservations about Wisconsin scoring some points in the 2nd half after the Bucks build up a solid lead and that always opens a back door cover possibility. We don’t have to worry about OSU taking their foot of the gas in the first half and cover 8.5 points seems probable. Ohio State on the first half line is our play.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Wisconsin (pick-em) over Indiana, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

Huge value with Wisconsin here in our opinion.  It this game was played 2 weeks ago, Wisconsin is favored by 3 to 4 points.  Now after a few losses, we’re getting them at an even game at home.  This becomes a huge home game for the Badgers who have lost 3 in a row to Richmond, New Mexico, and NC State, all top 100 teams away from home (or neutral).  They shot absolutely horribly in those 3 losses (2 in NY and 1 @ NC State) and now that they are back in the Kohl Center we expect a much better shooting performance.  They made less than 20% of their 3 pointers combined in those 3 losses but they are hitting 37% behind the arc and averaging 75 PPG at home this year.  That includes a 16 point win over Marquette, the highest rated team they’ve faced this season.  Indiana is undefeated on the year but they have yet to play a road game, not even a neutral site game.  They have played only 2 top 100 teams on the season and their current strength of schedule ranks 338th out of 351 teams.  The Hoosiers are solid but they are a young team (2 freshmen starters) that we expect to struggle in their first road game.  The Badgers have DOMINATED this series winning 19 of the last 22 meetings with IU’s only wins coming by 1, 2, and 2 points.  Wisconsin will be in desperation mode at home after 3 straight losses and all they have to do is win this game to cover.  Take the Badgers.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over Baylor Bears, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #110

Oklahoma traveled to Baylor just a few weeks ago and got down 28-3 in the game. The Sooners were down 31-10 at half and came out in the 2nd half and outscored the Bears 24-0 and rolled up over 300 yards of offense. The 34-31 come from behind win has prompted bettors to side with Baylor here (65% of the tickets on the Bears) as they expect another close game. Not us. The fact is OU dominated that game on the road. They outgained Baylor by 218 yards and had 16 more first downs. They also had a 41:00 to 19:00 minute time of possession edge. OU gifted Baylor 14 points in the first half with 2 turnovers that led to short TD drives of 9 and 27 yards for the Bears. The Baylor defense simply couldn’t stop or even remotely slow down the Sooner offense in the 2nd half. They won’t here either in perfect conditions on a neutral field in Dallas. The Oklahoma defense, on the other hand, is peaking right now. Starting with their 2nd half @ Baylor, the OU defense has allowed just 3 offensive TD’s in the last 10 quarters of football. They have outgained their last 3 opponents (Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma St) by a combined 640 yards! The Sooners have outgained EVERY opponent this year (+230 YPG) while Baylor has actually been outgained in 3 of their last 4 games (Kansas was only team they outgained in that stretch). Baylor had their shot at beating OU and blew it. That crushing loss and the way it went down has to linger into this game. From a confidence standpoint, the Bears literally couldn’t get the OU offense off the field in the 2nd half of that game and they have to be questioning whether they can here. On top of that, the Sooners played that game without arguably their top offensive threat in WR Lamb and he is back healthy for this game. We’re laying -9 points here on a neutral field which is LESS than Oklahoma was a favored AT Baylor just a few weeks ago.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (-) over Miami (Ohio) RedHawks, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #106

The wear and tear of a season can take a toll on teams and the RedHawks will be playing for the 5th straight week here. The Chippewas, on the other hand, are the fresher team as they have had two late season bye weeks. This will be just the 3rd game for Central Michigan in the past 5 weeks as they had bye dates on the 9th and 23rd of November. Miami lost a few players to injury in the first half of last week's game against Ball State so then they rested players in the second half. The RedHawks were hoping to bounce back after almost losing outright to Akron as a 31-point favorite the prior week! We're not putting a lot of weight into either one of those late season games as Miami had already secured its position atop of the MAC East. However, what we are putting a lot of weight into is the fact that the RedHawks have an anemic offense. QB Brett Gabbert hardly played last week because he didn't need to but in the 6 preceding games he had thrown as many picks (6) as touchdowns (6) and he had been sacked an average of 2.2 times per game. He is a freshman and has completed just 54% of his passes this season. Conversely, Central Michigan QB Quinten Dormady is a senior completing 71% of his passes this season! In 4 of Dormady's last 6 games he has not been sacked. He has 13 TDs against just 5 INTs on the season. Dormady has thrown for at least 250 yards in all 5 of his games against MAC opponents this season! They have been a different team since he took over at QB. Dormady leads a Central Michigan offense that is one of the best in the MAC while Gabbert leads an offense that ranks not only among the worst in the MAC but among the worst in the nation! That will prove to be the difference in this match-up. The defenses are about equal but there is no comparison when looking at these two offenses and this game is being played where the NFL's Lions play. Ford Field is an indoor stadium and that means Dormady will be able to air it out all game long in this one. The RedHawks have been held to 27 points or less in 9 of their 12 games this season. The Chippewas have scored 38 points or more in 6 of their past 7 games. Head coach Jim McElwain, formerly a head coach at SEC school Florida, has led a huge turnaround in his first year at Central Michigan. Since turning to former Tennessee (another SEC school) recruit Dormady at QB, the Chips offense has taken things to another level. The RedHawks will not be able to keep up here. Both teams have had some defensive struggles away from home this season but it is Miami-Ohio's inconsistency on offense that will be the difference maker here. The RedHawks pace (61.7 offensive plays per game) ranks near bottom of nation and their efficiency (5.0 yards per play on offense) ranks in bottom twenty of the nation. That plodding and methodical style is not going to get the job done with the way McElwain's offense is firing on all cylinders right now. The Chippewas defense has it numbers skewed by the fact they had two rough performances in the MAC and lost an ugly game at Wisconsin in non-conference action this season. In their other 9 games this season Central Michigan has allowed 19 points per game. Taking a look at Miami lets remove their match-up with Ohio State and their two worst performances in the MAC from the equation and they have allowed 21 points per game in their other 9 games. As you can see, truly the defenses do rate about equal here but there is no comparison in terms of the offensive production and being able to lay less than a TD here is a bargain with high-flying Central Michigan as they have hit their stride at the right time of year and also are the fresher team here thanks to the more recent bye weeks. Lay the points with the Chippewas in very early Conference Championship action Saturday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -3 over Ohio State, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET

Ohio State comes in undefeated however they have yet to leave Columbus.  All 7 of their games this year have been in the friendly confines of Value City Arena.  They are a young team (6 underclassmen averaging 10+ minutes per game) that may experience some growing pains on the road at times and we expect that in their first road game tonight @ the historic Dean Dome.  UNC has one loss but they’ve played the much tougher schedule, especially as of late.  The Heels are coming off games vs Alabama, Michigan, and Oregon last week all on a neutral site.  OSU has not played a top 100 team since November 13th with their last 4 games coming against Stetson, IPFW, Kent, and Morgan State.  Now they take a HUGE step up in competition and on the road.  We’re not sure they’re quite ready for that.   The Heels also got a boost last week when senior Brandon Robinson returned after missing their first 4 games due to an injury.  Robinson showed no signs of a slow start with 34 points in his 3 games while averaging nearly 30 minutes per game.  Super Frosh Cole Anthony (20 PPG) has a banged up ankle for UNC but he has been able to rest it since last Friday and he practiced on Tuesday and appears ready to go.  OSU has struggled on the defensive glass despite their easy slate and UNC is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation so we expect a big advantage on the boards.  It’s obviously very tough to walk into the Dean Dome and beat the Tar Heels.  They are 58-6 SU their last 64 home games AND 56 of those 58 wins have come by at least 4 points which would cover tonight’s number.  We like North Carolina to hand OSU their first loss of the season.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -2.5 vs. LA Lakers, 9PM ET

The Lakers have played one of the NBA’s softest schedule to date and of their 20 games, ONLY 7 have been against teams with winning records and they are 4-3 in those games after a win in Denver last night. The Lakers lofty offensive (8th) and defensive (3rd) efficiency numbers are skewed as a result of the schedule. After playing a game in the higher altitude of Denver last night the Lakers will have a tough time finding their legs tonight in Utah against a Jazz team in a foul mood after two straight losses. The Jazz home/road dichotomy is very strong as they are 8-1 SU at home compared to 4-8 SU on the road. The Jazz have a negative differential of -3.5PPG on the road but are plus +7PPG at home. Again, the Lakers are 2-1 on the road against winning teams this year yet only have an average margin of victory of +4.7PPG playing their weak schedule. Utah shoots over 47% at home and hold foes to just 42.1%. The Jazz were plus +3.5 points in L.A. earlier this season and lost by 9-points. The natural swing in the point spread should have them -5.5 points in this contest so we’ll grab the value and the rested home team against a team off a road win in Denver.

ASA 10* play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +1 over Indian Pacers, 8PM ET – At first glance the Indiana Pacers streak of 6-1 their last seven games is impressive but lets take a closer look. In that seven game stretch the Pacers have beaten Memphis twice, Atlanta, Orlando and Brooklyn, none of which have a winning record. You can argue that Oklahoma City is in that same scenario with a losing record, but they’ve played a top ten strength of schedule and Indiana has played one of the easiest. The Thunder have won back to back games against the Pelicans but are just 4-6 SU their last ten games but take peek at who the loses have come against. Portland the Lakers twice, Clippers, this Pacers team and the Bucks. OKC has had a dominating home record in recent years and has a loyal following at home. The Thunder are 92-48 SU at home since 2016 with an average margin of victory of +5.1PPG. The Thunder were recently +1.5 points at Indiana so the line adjustment isn’t what it should be with them the home team. Playing with same season revenge we like the Thunder here by double-digits.

ASA play on: #550 Denver Nuggets -2 vs. LA Lakers, 9PM ET

We will play on the Denver Nuggets here minus the points at home over the Lakers. Los Angeles is certainly the media darling and has garnered a lot of attention with their 17-3 start. But the reality is the NBA set them up with one of the easiest schedules possible to start the season to ensure TV ratings early on and promote them as the team of destiny this season. On a side note, it hasn’t worked as NBA ratings are down this season but that will change as the season heats up. Back to basketball, the Lakers roster is an impressive one, but they’ve played the softest schedule to date and of their 20 games, ONLY 6 have been against teams with winning records and they are 3-3 in those games. The Lakers lofty offensive (8th) and defensive (4th) efficiency numbers are skewed as a result of the schedule. Denver on the other hand has faced much stiffer competition and is 1st in the NBA in DEFF and 20th in OEFF. The Nuggets at home have already beaten Boston, Houston, Philadelphia and Miami who are some of the league’s better teams. Even with that schedule the Nuggets still have an average margin of victory at home of +6.4PPG. Again, the Lakers are 1-1 on the road against winning teams this year yet only have an average margin of victory of +4.3PPG playing their weak schedule. The oddsmakers are begging us to bet the public Lakers here and we won’t bite. Denver has covered 5 straight against the Lakers on this court. Bet the Nuggets.

ASA's 10* PLAY ON Ole Miss -1 over Butler, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

These two met last year @ Butler and Ole Miss led by 5 with around 5:00 minutes remaining and lost by 7.  That should motivate them for this rematch.  Not only that, the Rebels, who are 5-2 on the season, are coming off an embarrassing effort in Kansas City facing Oklahoma State.  The Rebs were favored by 2 in that game and lost 78-37.  Yes you read that correctly.  It was simply a horrible performance as Ole Miss made 29% of their shots overall and made ONE 3-point shot in 20 attempts!  After the game head coach Kermit Davis called it “embarrassing” and we expect them to come out with some fire tonight at home.  They were playing well entering that game beating a very solid Penn State two days prior to this debacle and nearly topped #15 Memphis on the road a few days before that losing by 1- point.  Butler is 7-0 on the season and ranked 24th yet they are an underdog here against t team that just lost by 39 points?  That’s why the vast majority bets are coming in on Butler yet this line is not moving.  Ole Miss is still a favorite.  This is the Bulldogs first true road game and they have a huge revenge game on deck as they host Florida on Saturday, a team that beat them 77-43 last season.  Butler is solid but this situation sets up very nicely for an Ole Miss team that brings a number of key performers back from last year’s NCAA tourney team.  All they have to do is win at home and we feel they will give Butler their first loss of the season.  Take Ole Miss.      

ASA play on #475 Minnesota Vikings +3 over Seattle Seahawks, 8:15PM ET

Have you ever looked at a line and said, “man that looks obvious” and then bet it and lose? Tonight, is one of those instances when the oddsmakers are begging you to bet the home team at minus -2.5-points. There is a substantial amount of money and tickets on Seattle tonight, yet the oddsmakers won’t move that line to -3. That says a lot and we’ll put ourselves on the side that Vegas doesn’t want us on tonight and that’s Minnesota. Seattle is just 3-2 SU at home this year with one of the wins coming in overtime against a bad Tampa team and two other wins coming by just 1-point. The two teams they hosted that had winning records, Baltimore and New Orleans, beat them by a combined 20-points. Minnesota on the other hand is 3-3 SU on the road but look at who they’ve played and lost to. Their three losses have come at Green Bay, at Chicago before they struggled and then at Kansas City. Those three teams have a combined 23-13 SU record this season and two of the Vikings losses came by 1 score or less. The Vikings run it for 4.6 yards per carry which is 11th best in the NFL and will have a big advantage there against a Seattle defense that gives up 4.5YPC which ranks them 23rd. While the two offenses have similar yards per play numbers the overall defensive stats clearly favor the Vikings who allow just 5.3YPPL (11th) compared to the Seahawks D which gives up 5.8YPPL (22nd). Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense will also find it difficult to move the football through the air as the Vikings allow just 10.0 yards per completion which is 10th best in the NFL. We’ll bet the underdog with the better ground game and defense in this one. Play on Minnesota Vikings.

ASA play on: #527 Utah Jazz +5.5 @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET

The Jazz have struggled a little to start the season with a 12-8 SU record but they’ve also faced the Bucks twice, Clippers twice, the Lakers and this same Philly team. Those are four of the best teams in the entire NBA and we can even include the Raptors who are 15-4 this season. Speaking of Toronto, the Jazz were just beaten and embarrassed by the Raptors yesterday. Because that game was a blowout early the Jazz didn’t have a player play more than 31-minutes in the contest which means fatigue shouldn’t be an issue. Utah was just +2-points at Toronto so you can see for yourself the added value with this number. Philadelphia is coming off a home win in their last game and were favored by 6-points over Indiana who isn’t as good as Utah. The 76ers are slightly better in both offensive and defensive efficiency but again, a lot of that has to do with scheduling. Utah holds opponents to 43.4% shooting while the 76ers allow foes to hit nearly 46% of their FG attempts. The Jazz can rebound with the 76ers and limit easy second chance baskets here. Take the points with Utah.

ASA 10* PLAY ON NC Central +16 over Wofford, Monday at 7 PM ET

NCCU, out of the MEAC, is a very solid program that has been to the NCAA tournament 3 straight seasons.  They have gotten off to a slow start (2-5 record) but were picked by most to win the MEAC again so we feel they are undervalued right now.  They have a very solid backcourt with Perkins & Miller, both returning starters from last year, and the additions of Boston College transfer Ty Graves & Wichita State transfer CJ Keyser.  They shoot the 3 very well (115th nationally) and they are facing a Wofford team that defends the arc very poorly (315th nationally).  Wofford is simply a poor defensive team in general allowing their opponents to shoot almost 49% on the year.  The Terriers were a fantastic story last year going undefeated in the Southern Conference and making it to the Big Dance.  However, they lost many of their key players off that team including sharp shooter Fletcher Magee and big man Cameron Jackson who graduated along with starter Keve Aluma who transferred to Va Tech.  Speaking of Va Tech, the Terriers also lost their coach Mike Young who took over the Hokies program.  With so many changes from last year, they’ve struggle to find their way this year having already lost 4 games which is almost as many as they lost all of last year (5).  This team is overvalued right now due to last year’s success.  We like NC Central to score enough to keep this within this number which is too high in our opinion.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Carolina -10 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Redskins finally picked up a win last week topping Detroit 19-16.  Their only other win this season was a 17-16 victory @ Miami.  Washington’s win last week was a game they really probably didn’t deserve.  They were outgained by 134 yards and by more than 1.0 YPP.  The Skins didn’t score an offensive TD in the game.  They benefitted from a 91 yard kickoff return and 4 Detroit turnovers.  Rookie QB Haskins was again inaccurate completing only 44% of his attempts with 0 TD’s and 1 pick.  For the season he’s now completing only 54% with 2 TDs and 6 interceptions.  Since Haskins took over as the starting QB 3 games ago, the Redskins have had 36 offensive possessions and scored a grand total of TWO offensive TDs.  This is a huge home game for Carolina who is 5-6 on the season and still has playoff hopes.  The Panther offense got back on track last week putting up 31 points and 350 yards on one of the top defenses in the NFL (New Orleans).  They battled the Saints to the end on the road with New Orleans kicking a FG as time expired for the 34-31 win.  The Panther defense has given up some points over the last 3 weeks however they faced Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers, Atlanta with Matt Ryan, and New Orleans with Drew Brees.  We expect them to look MUCH better here vs an offense and QB that is among the worst in the NFL.  We like Carolina to roll in this game picking up a double digit win.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Pittsburgh +2.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Just two weeks ago these two teams met and the Browns were favored by 3 at home and won the game 21-7.  Now they are favored by nearly the same number on the road and we think that number is a mistake.  In Cleveland the yardage was fairly close (Cleve 293 – Pitt 236) but the Steelers QB Mason Rudolph threw 4 interceptions (0 turnovers for Cleveland).  Even with that, this was a one scored game with Cleveland up 14-7 with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game.  On top of the 4 turnovers, the Steelers missed a FG and were shut out on downs twice inside Cleveland territory so they did have plenty of opportunities.  The Steelers are going with Devlin Hodges at QB here and we feel his is a definite upgrade over Rudolph.  In his lone start Hodges led the Steelers to a 24-17 win @ LA Chargers.  Last week Hodges entered in the 3rd quarter with the Steelers losing 7-3 @ lowly Cincinnati and he led them to a comeback win.  We don’t trust Cleveland as a road favorite.  They have now lost 3 straight road games including when they traveled to Denver as a 4-point favorite.  They have lost 15 straight games in Pittsburgh and this is the first time they’ve been favored @ the Steelers since 1989!  Cleveland has not been on the road in a full month and with the way the game ended a few weeks ago (Cleveland’s Myles Garrett clubbing Pitt QB Rudolph over the head with his helmet) we expect the Steelers to play with a little extra here.  We like the Steelers to win and we’ll grab the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) over NC State Wolfpack, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #359

NC State won last year's game in overtime and there was a huge fight in the end zone after the game.  Suffice to say both teams will be highly motivated in this year's rematch but that is bad news for the Wolfpack because the Tar Heels are certainly the vastly superior team.  NC State was down 21 to 3 to Georgia Tech (UNC beat GT 38-22 by the way) at the half last week and that shows you have far this team has fallen as the Yellow Jackets have been enduring a rebuilding season and yet still went on to defeat the Wolfpack last week.  Now NC State faces a fierce rival seeking revenge and also seeking the necessary 6th win for bowl eligibility.  Even though the Tar Heels are away from home for this one, the road team has covered 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams.  North Carolina has a huge edge at QB in this match-up as Sam Howell as thrown for 32 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions.  NC State QB Devin Leary has just 7 touchdowns and has thrown 3 picks.  In his last 5 games Howell had one tough game at home against Duke but in the other 4 games he totaled 15 touchdowns against just 1 pick and this includes an 8-1 ratio in road games.  Leary, on the other hand, is trending the other direction with his 3 picks (against 4 TDs) all coming in his last 4 games.  NC State has lost 5 straight games and the average margin of defeat in those is 23.2 points per game.  The Wolfpack have averaged scoring only 17 points per game in their past 7 games.  That is bad news here for NC State as they simply won't be able to keep up in this game.  North Carolina has scored an average of 34 points per game their past 6 games (not including OT points in the 6-OT battle with Virginia Tech).  While the Tar Heels and Wolfpack rate about equal on the defensive side of the ball, North Carolina's does hold a big edge on offense.  The Tar Heels have amassed over 5,000 yards of offense this season and their 6.2 yards per play ranks them #3 in the ACC while NC State ranks 11th in the ACC averaging just 5.2 yards per play on offense.  In terms of technical support here the Wolfpack certainly have not been performing well in the underdog role.  NC State is 0-6 ATS the last six times they have been an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points including 0-3 ATS this season.  In their last 5 ACC games the Tar Heels have averaged 325.2 passing yards per game.  In their last 4 ACC games the Wolfpack have averaged just 196.3 passing yards per game.  Per our computer math model, North Carolina piles up the yardage here and sends NC State to their 6th straight loss (both SU and ATS) as road team dominance in this series continues and the Tar Heels get revenge for last season's OT loss (and game-ending fight) that ruined the night at Chapel Hill!  UNC hasn't forgotten that one!  Lay the points with the Tar Heels as a road favorite in evening action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) over Michigan Wolverines, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #367

We feel OSU is absolutely the value side here.  Just two weeks ago the initial line on this game was OSU -14.  Now laying 10 or less we are siding with Ohio State.  Last week’s 28-17 win over Penn State was quite deceiving.  The Buckeyes dominate the game.  They were up 14-0 at half and should have been up 21-0 if not for a fumble by QB Fields just before he crossed the goal line.  They held a 245 to just 64 yardage edge at the break.  A quick score to open the 2nd half made it 21-0 (could have been 28-0) and it looked like another OSU rout vs a top notch opponent.  PSU then took advantage of 2 short field drives after back to back OSU turnovers and got back in the game very quickly at 21-17.  The Buckeyes dominated the stats (+190 yardage) and if not for that brief hiccup in the 3rd quarter (2 quick turnovers deep in their own territory) this was headed for a blowout.  The Bucks have covered 8 of their 10 games this year, they are +39 PPG and +315 YPG on the year.  Simply dominating.  Michigan was impressive last week winning @ Indiana, however with the game tied at 14-14, the Hoosiers players started dropping including their QB Ramsey, who was injured during the game but kept playing, their top RB, starting LT, and top WR who missed the game.  The Wolverines took advantage and pulled away for a big win.   Let’s face it, the Buckeyes own this series.  They have won 14 of the last 15 meetings and even last season when Michigan was the better team all season long and came into the game favored by 3.5 points, OSU still rolled to an easy 62-39 win.  Before last week’s misleading 11 point win, Ohio State had won every conference game by at least 24 points.  While they did clinch the Big Ten East last Saturday, the Bucks have higher aspirations and need to keep winning to seal a spot in college football’s version of the Final 4.  They’ve been completely focused all season with nothing really resembling a letdown game.  Getting potentially the top team in the country laying less than 10 is a gift here.  We like Ohio State. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Seton Hall -2 over Iowa State, Friday at 7:00 PM ET

This line is light according to our power ratings.  We have Seton Hall favored by -4.5 so we’re getting a full possession of value here.  The Pirates are 5-2 on the year but their 2 losses have been down to the wire affairs vs Michigan State & Oregon (both top 15 teams according to Ken Pom).  The Pirates could easily be 7-0 as they led Michigan State by 5 with under 2:00 minutes remaining (lost by 3) and led Oregon by 19 (lost by 2).  Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 3 days here in the Bahamas and with that depth is very important and Seton Hall is absolutely the deeper team (26th nationally in bench minutes while ISU is 222nd in that category).  In their 2 games vs Oregon & Southern Miss, the Pirates were able to distribute double digit minutes to 10 players in game 1 and 9 players in game 2.  Iowa State (4-2 with losses to Oregon State & Michigan) really goes only 7 deep so we could be looking at a tired team here in the 2nd half.  This is a favorable match up for the Hall.  They rank higher in offensive efficiency, higher in defensive efficiency and they are the better rebounding team.  They also shoot the 3 very well (31st nationally at nearly 40%) and ISU’s defensive weakness is defending the arc (294th nationally).  The Pirates have found their groove from deep in this tourney hitting nearly 50% (24 of 51) in their 2 games and they should do the same today vs the Cyclones.  They also have the best player on the court in Myles Powell who is averaging 23 PPG and making over 40% of his 3 point attempts and 83% of his FT’s.  As we mentioned this line is too short in our opinion and we like Seton Hall to cover this one.    

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Washington Huskies, Friday at 4 PM ET: Game #339

The Huskies have good recent history in this rivalry but Washington enters this game off a loss at Colorado and has now lost 3 of 4 games. Washington State enters this game riding the momentum of a key comeback win at Oregon State where the Cougars rallied and scored the final 14 points of the game. Washington State QB Anthony Gordon has thrown for nearly 5,000 yards and has 45 touchdown passes this season. He led the huge win last week by throwing for 6 touchdowns and the Cougars got the final TD with just a couple ticks left on the clock. Normally a team can be expected to be flat after a game like that but rivalry games are most definitely an exception. Especially considering the Huskies recent dominance in this series, there is no way the Cougars will be flat here. Look for Gordon and company to ride the momentum of last week's win over the Beavers which also gave Washington State the all-important 6th win for bowl eligibility. With Gordon at the controls the Cougars have been tough to stop as the season has gone on. While the Huskies enter this game with losses in 3 of 4, Washington State has won 3 of its last 5 games and one of the losses was by just 2 points at Oregon! In fact, the Cougars 5 SU losses this season have featured 3 by just 4 points or less. Per our computer math model, Washington State has a great shot at the outright upset here and, if they do fall short, it is expected to be by just a single score. That means we have great value here with getting more than a TD in this one. Washington State, after a tight win by 7 points or less over a conference foe, has gone 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU). Washington, off an outright upset as a road fave of 7 or more points, has gone 3-8 ATS. The Huskies are dealing with a very dangerous dog in this year's match-up as Washington State is riding a wave of late-season momentum. Grab the points with the Cougars as a road dog in afternoon action Friday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Memphis Tigers (-) over Cincinnati Bearcats, Friday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #332

This is an interesting situation with Cincinnati already having clinched the AAC West with Memphis and Navy still battling for the AAC East crown.  If Memphis wins this game, these two will have a rematch next Saturday right here on the same field (Liberty Bowl in Memphis).  However, if Memphis loses this game and Navy beats Houston, then Cincinnati will host Navy next week for the AAC Title.  You may look at this number and wonder how could Memphis be a double digit favorite vs a team that is undefeated in the AAC?  Well there is a reason the oddsmakers set this number where it is and we agree with them.  We expect Memphis to roll in this game.  Cincy is a very shaky 7-0 SU on league play in our opinion.  Despite not losing a game in the AAC, they’ve been outgained in 6 of their 7 conference match ups.  The only team they outgained this year was UConn who just happens to be one of the worst teams in the nation.  In conference play the Bearcats rank 11th (out of 12) in total offense averaging 358 YPG while giving up 404 YPG (-46 YPG).  The last 2 weeks the Bearcats have been able to squeak by middle of the pack AAC teams USF and Temple winning by 3 & 2 points respectively.  Cincinnati was outgained by a combined 260 yards in those 2 wins.  In those 2 games they’ve really struggled to score points (20 & 15 points) and they’ve only put up 210 and 278 yards.  That won’t cut it against this high powered Memphis attack averaging 43 PPG and 481 YPG in conference play.  While Cincy has a negative YPG differential in conference play, the Tigers are plus nearly 100 YPG.  They are also 3-0 SU & ATS at home in AAC play.  Cincinnati, on the other hand, has had 3 conference road games this year, all vs lower tier teams (ECU, USF, and Houston) who have a combined 5-16 league record.  The Bearcats needed late heroics to win 2 of those games scoring 10 points in the final 5:00 minutes to beat ECU 46-43 and kicking a FG as time expired to beat USF 20-17.  Now they take a huge step up in competition facing a Memphis team that is 31-5 SU their last 36 home games with 26 of those wins coming by at least 10 points.  We just don’t think Cincinnati will be able to keep up offensively in this game and we’re laying the points with Memphis.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas -6.5 over Buffalo, Thursday at 3:30 PM ET

Dallas is much better than their 6-5 record in our opinion.  They lead the league in yards per play differential at +1.4 and their offense is actually #1 in the NFL in total yards per game (433) and YPP (6.6).  Those are better numbers than the red hot Baltimore offense!  The only team that outgained Dallas this year was New Orleans and that was by just 9 yards.  Despite their 6-5 record, Dallas has the 2nd best point differential in the NFC at +85 trailing only San Francisco.  Last Sunday the Cowboys took New England to the wire on the road before losing 13-9.  They outgained the Pats by 40 yards despite running fewer offensive plays.  Buffalo is not as good as their 8-3 record would indicate.  Their offense is pedestrian averaging just 18 PPG if you subtract their 2 games vs Miami.  Last week they topped Denver 20-3 but still have beaten only 1 team this year that currently has a record above .500 (Tennessee).  The Bills strength of schedule ranks dead last in the NFL at 32nd.  The teams they’ve beaten so far this year have a current winning percentage of .239 or just less than 24%.  The Cowboys running game which averages 4.6 YPC (8th in the NFL) matches up very well with Buffalo’s defensive weakness and that is allowing 4.4 YPC (21st in the NFL).  That should open up the Dallas passing game and we expect them to play very well on offense.  We don’t see Buffalo’s offense keeping up in this game.  Lay the points with Dallas.

ASA PLAY ON: Washington Wizards +10.5 @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – We’re clearly betting a number here more than anything and here’s why. First off, the Nuggets have been double-digit favorites just three times this season with a 1-2 ATS record. The lone cover came in their last game as an 11-point favorite which they won by 12 barely covering the spread. In the other two games as a hefty favorite they won by 1-point in OT and won the other by just 4-points. In other words, the Nuggets aren’t good as a big favorite. Denver has an average margin of victory at home this season of +5.7PPG which is nearly half of what the spread is here. Washington has been a surprise this season and better than anticipated. They’ve won 2 of their last three games and 3 of their last five. Despite their 3-5 SU record their average point differential is minus just -1.2PPG. The Wizard have been a double-digit dog just once all season and they lost that game by only 2-points. Washington can score with the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA which allows them to keep this game close throughout. Grab the points.

ASA's 8* CBB PLAY ON Auburn -9 over Richmond, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2

This one is on a neutral court in Brooklyn NY.  Richmond upset Wisconsin last night as a 6-point favorite by the final score of 62-52.  It was much closer than that as the two went back and forth the entire game.  With just over 3:00 minutes remaining it was one possession game and neither team led by more than 6 in the 2nd half until less than 3:00 remaining.  Wisconsin played easily their worst game this year and one of the worst we’ve seen them play in the last few years.  They shot 34% overall, just 26% from beyond the arc and turned the ball over on 24% of their possessions which is extremely high for that program.  They scored ONE basket in the final 11 minutes of the game (7 total points during that time).  Even with that, they had a chance to win this game which is an indictment on Richmond moving into tonight’s game vs red hot Auburn.  It might be a tough spot on a back to back night situation for the Spiders as they played only 6 guys double digit minutes last night and 3 of their starters played 34+ minutes.  Auburn destroyed a solid New Mexico team 84-59 last night.  Because of that they were able to spread their minutes around (9 guys played at least 12 minutes) in anticipation of their game tonight.  The Tigers should be much more rested than Richmond here.  They love to put defensive pressure on their opponent which will be a problem here with Richmond’s 2 starting guards logging 38 & 35 minutes yesterday.  We expect them to wear down.  Auburn was able to cause turnovers on 31% of New Mexico’s possessions yesterday and if they do that again, we’re looking at another blowout.  The Spiders are 5-0, however before they beat a decent Wisconsin team yesterday, they had won 2 games in OT this season and hadn’t played a team ranked in the top 125.  Auburn is also undefeated and they’ve won 4 of their last 5 by at least 10 points with 3 of those wins coming by 25 points or more.  That includes wins over a good New Mexico team, Davidson (always a very good mid major), and Colgate (won by 29) who nearly beat Tennessee in the NCAA tourney last year and returns nearly everyone.   Richmond will be very solid this year in the A10 conference but we feel this is a bad spot for them and we expect Auburn to pull away in the 2nd half here.  Lay the points.

ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder -6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – The Thunder already own a pair of wins over the Warriors this season and there’s no reason they can’t beat them again by more than this spread. The Thunder have some solid efficiency numbers their last six games when you factor in the teams they’ve faced. OKC played the Lakers twice, the Clippers, Philadelphia, Indiana and Milwaukee. The Thunder lost to the Bucks by 2-points, beat Philly, lost to both L.A. teams by a combined 10-points. OKC has a negative point differential of minus -0.7PPG this season but they’ve faced the third toughest schedule. The roster is solid with veterans Chris Paul, Gallinari and Adams along with Gilgeous-Alexander who is playing great. Dennis Schroder and Terrance Ferguson round out the top six. The same can’t be said for Golden State who look like the walking wounded. The Warriors dressed just 8-players the other night in Utah due to injuries. GST has the worst overall average point differential in the NBA at minus -10.4PPG and the worst home differential at minus -9.0PPG. The line on this contest is slightly inflated but we feel Vegas is trying to keep us off Oklahoma City here. Lay the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma -4 over Stanford, Monday at 9:30 PM ET on ESPN2

Both these teams come in undefeated but all records are not created equal.  OU has beaten 2 top 75 teams (Minnesota & Oregon State) both by 8 or more points and both on neutral courts.  The Sooners are experienced returning 3 starters from a team that won 20 games and gave Virginia a run in the round of 32 in the NCAA tourney last year before falling to the eventual National Champion.  Stanford is the opposite as far as experience.  They are young starting 2 freshman including point guard Tyrell Terry.  The Cardinal have yet to leave their home arena this season and we’ll see how this young team adjusts to a different environment.  We know Oklahoma can adjust as we mentioned with 2 solid win not on their home court.  On top of that, Stanford has not yet played a team ranked higher than 134th and 5 of their 6 games have come against teams rated 200th or lower.  This will be by far the best defense Stanford has faced with Oklahoma ranking 29th nationally in defensive efficiency.  Prior to this the Cardinal have not faced a team ranked inside the top 125 in defensive efficiency.  The Sooners are a very well coached team under Lon Kruger and it shows in their key stats where they are very good defensively, they turn the ball over very little (5th best turnover ratio in the country), they get to the FT line and make them when the do get there (81% as a team), and they don’t foul very much with their opponents getting only 8.7% of their points from the line which is the lowest mark in the NCAA.  Kruger has his teams playing well early in the season with a 27-2 SU record in November & December since the start of the 2017 season.  We’ll lay this small number with Oklahoma on Monday night on a neutral court in Kansas City, a venue they are very familiar with as the Big 12 tourney is played here.    

ASA 10* PLAY ON Akron +18.5 over Louisville, Sunday at 6 PM ET

This is a unique situation early in the season as these two teams have already played 3 common opponents.  With that, we have a pretty solid comparison.  Each has played USC Upstate, Youngstown State, and NC Central.  Both are 3-0 vs those common opponents and the results have been fairly similar.  Akron has beaten those teams by an average of 21 points while Louisville has beaten them by an average of 26 points.  Akron is a veteran team that can shoot the ball well from deep.  That plays into Louisville’s weakest part of their defense as they rank 145th in 3-point defense.  Teams that have good guard play and can hit from deep are always a threat as a big underdog.  Akron also plays very good defense which is another big factor.  They rank 4th nationally in eFG% defense and that’s no fluke as they ranked 14th in that category last season.  Akron’s only loss this year was a 10-point setback @ a very solid West Virginia team in a game that the Zips shot only 38%.  They impressed us on the boards in that game getting out rebounded by just 1 against a WVU team that is consistently among the top rebounding teams in the nation.  Akron proved last year they can hang with top notch opponents as they took Clemson to the wire (lost by 3) as well as a 29-5 Nevada team (lost by 6).  This number is too high as we expect the Zips to be competitive here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +4 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

As we’ve said many times this season, Denver is much better than their 3-7 record.  Last week we thought they were in a terrible spot @ Minnesota, who tends to destroy teams at home, with a QB that had never started a road game.  We took the Vikings thinking a 2 TD win for the host was probable.  Denver proved us wrong losing just 27-23 and they actually led Minnesota 20-0 in the first half.  QB Allen played solid (240 yards passing) and the defense continued to play very well holding a potent Minnesota attack to just 320 yards.  Denver actually outgained Minnesota by 73 yards and played very well in one of the tougher environments in the NFL.  Now they head to Buffalo in a game they can absolutely win.  The Bills are a bit of a farce at 7-3 as only one of their wins came against a team with any type of a pulse (14-7 win vs Tennessee).  Their other wins have come against Miami (twice), Washington, NY Giants, NY Jets, and Cincinnati.  Those 4 teams have combined for a 6-34 record and that makes this Bills record a bit misleading.  While Denver only has 3 wins, as we discussed they are underrated and much better than any of those 4 teams mentioned.  Despite their record the Broncos are +11 YPG and +0.2 YPP on the season.  Those are the stats of a .500 type team.  Buffalo struggles to score.  If you take out their two games vs Miami they are only averaging 17 PPG.  Now they face one of the better defenses in the NFL (Denver 9th in defensive efficiency) and we expect the Buffalo offense to struggle.  The Broncos have played close games all season long with 7 of their 10 games being single score contests (8 points or less).  Four of their seven losses have come by 4 points or less.  We look for a low scoring game and we give Denver a great shot at winning.  Take the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* TCU Horned Frogs (+) over Oklahoma Sooners, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #137

The Sooners are one of the top teams in the nation and they have a fantastic offense. Certainly their offense rates the edge in this match-up but the Horned Frogs have proven they can put up plenty of points too as they are averaging 32 points per game on the season and the keys to the value with this play are many. TCU has the edge on defense in this match-up. Keep in mind that prior to the Sooners miracle comeback win against Baylor last week, they entered the 2nd half of that game having allowed an average of 12 points per quarter over their prior 10 quarters of football. That equates to an average of 48 points per game against the Jayhawks, Cyclones, and the 1st half of the Bears game. Give credit to the Sooners for their huge 2nd half comeback but the defensive edge in this match-up belongs to Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs had two ugly games in terms of points allowed this season but in the other 8 they have allowed an average of only 22.4 points per game. They are dogs of about 18 points in this match-up and they are getting strong play from QB Duggan as he led the way against Texas Tech last week. While the Horned Frogs hung on for a well deserved win last week, the Sooners were fortunate to storm all the way back for their comeback win at Baylor. Also, Oklahoma has their biggest rival, Oklahoma State, on deck and they have failed to cover 5 of the last 7 times when they have the Cowboys on deck. This is a definite sandwich spot for OU off the big win over the previously undefeated Bears and with rival Oklahoma State on deck. Also, the 52 points that OU put up on TCU last year was the most points ever scored in this series. The Horned Frogs defense is ready to make up for that performance here. The Sooners enter this game on a 1-5 ATS run as they continue to be over-valued by the betting markets. Games since mid-October for Oklahoma have included a 7-point loss to Kansas State and 3 wins over Texas, Baylor and Iowa State that have come by a total of 11 points. That means in those 4 Big 12 games OU has a point differential net of just +4 or 1 point per game yet here they are laying more than two touchdowns. We'll take it! 4 of the Horned Frogs 5 SU losses this season have been by a margin of 7 points or less. Per our computer math model, this one will be too! Grab the points with TCU as a big road dog for a Top Play in evening action Saturday.

#194 ASA PLAY ON Tulsa (-) over Houston, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Both teams enter this game with 3-7 records however Tulsa’s 3-7 feels much different than Houston’s 3-7. Tulsa comes off a bye and with some serious momentum after beating a very good UCF team 34-31 as a 15 point dog 2 weeks ago. That was a big win for this program that had come so close a number of times this year vs top tier AAC competition. They’ve played a brutally tough AAC slate facing the top 6 teams in the conference according to our power rankings. Their conference games this year have come against Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF, Tulane, SMU, and Navy. All 6 of those teams have records above .500 on the season the their combined conference record is 28-8. Tulsa took Memphis (5-1 in the AAC) to the wire before losing 42-41 on a FG as time expired. They led SMU (5-1 in the AAC) by 21 points in the 2nd half and lost in OT. They had Cincinnati (6-0 in conference play) on the ropes late down 17-13 late in the 4th quarter but turned the ball over on each of their final 2 possessions in the loss. You get the point. This team is much better than their record. They are also still giving full effort as proven by their win here over UCF 2 weeks ago when Tulsa already knew they could not make it to a bowl game. Now with two weeks of positive energy and solid practices leading into this home finale, we expect them to play very well. Houston is on the opposite end of the spectrum. They played a huge home game vs Memphis last week and jumped out to a 17-7 lead but got boat raced from that point on with the tigers winning 45-27. Houston had only 256 total yards (531 for Memphis) and their last TD came on a blocked punt return. After the game Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen admitted after the game his team ran out of gas around halftime. That’s not a good sign for a team that has to get back up and go on the road this week. On top of that, the loss eliminated Houston from bowl consideration and for a program that has been a to a bowl game for the last 6 seasons, we can see them being flat this weekend. On top of that, they just aren’t very good this year with a 1-5 conference record and their only win coming by just 7 points vs a terrible UConn team. While Tulsa was playing the top tier teams in the league tight for the most part, Houston was not. They lost to Memphis by 18, UCF by 15, and Cincinnati by 15. We realize Tulsa QB Zach Smith is questionable here but we are handicapping this game as if he were out. His backup Seth Boomer started for Tulsa last year and has thrown 200 career passes for 1400 yards so he has plenty of experience. Boomer also stepped in for Smith and played the entire 2nd half of the UCF game and led the Hurricane to a 34-31 win outscoring UCF 17-3 while he was in the game. If Smith ends up playing in this game, that’s simply a bonus. If not, we still love the spot for Tulsa. We look for a big win here.

ASA PLAY ON Texas Longhorns (+) over Baylor Bears, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #177

Texas has won each of the last 4 meetings between these Big 12 rivals and the Longhorns are catching Baylor at the perfect time to make it 5 in a row. The Bears are in a very difficult spot here. Baylor would be suffering unbeaten letdown regardless of how they lost last week but it is the manner in which they were defeated that makes this situation a particularly tough one for the Bears. Baylor had a huge lead of 31-10 at half against Oklahoma last week and then allowed the Sooners to come all the way back for a stunning 34-31 victory. That is a soul-crushing loss when you are an undefeated team. The Bears also managed to score ZERO points in the 2nd half against a Sooners defense that had been torched for at least 41 points in their two preceding games. The Bears clearly will still be licking their wounds here and they are running into a Longhorns defense that is playing much better since they got healthier again. Texas has held their last two opponents each under 25 points. That definitely holds some significance here as the Longhorns are about a 6 point dog in this match-up and, prior to last week's 21 point effort, the Texas offense had not been held below 27 points in any game this season! The Horns are averaging 36 points per game this season and, with the way their D has been playing, the Longhorns have a great shot at the outright upset in this one! While Texas is averaging 36 points a game the Bears have scored more than 33 points in a game just once in their last eight games! You can clearly see the difference in the production level of these two offenses. The road team has covered 8 of the last 11 meetings between these teams. Longhorns head coach Herman has cashed in 16 of the last 19 times his team has been a dog! 11 of the 16 wins have been outright upsets too and that is what we expect here but we'll gladly take the points being offered. Grab the points with Texas as a road dog in afternoon action Saturday.

#122 ASA PLAY ON Indiana (+) over Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a terrible spot for Michigan playing a much improved Indiana team. The Wolverines are off their state rivalry game vs Michigan State and they have their game of the year on deck hosting Ohio State next week. Indiana comes in with a solid 7-3 record with 2 of their losses coming down to the wire (@ PSU & @ MSU) and they only blowout loss coming at the hands of Ohio State which is no surprise. Last week they had Penn State in a very similar situation to Michigan this week and nearly pulled off the road upset. Penn State was coming off a huge game @ Minnesota with Ohio State next. IU lost the game by a TD but outgained the Nittany Lions by 100 yards & put up 462 total yards on a very good PSU defense. That game was on the road and now they get to play a similar spot at home. Michigan has played only one road game in the last month and that was @ Maryland who has been trending downward since mid September. The Wolverines are 2-2 SU on the road and this game will give them their biggest challenge since losing at Penn State in mid October. The Hoosiers should have some confidence facing Michigan at home as the last 3 years this game has been fairly tight with the Wolverines winning by 11, 10, and 7 points. This is IU’s home finale and they don’t have any pressure on them as they are already bowl eligible. We expect them to play very well and they’ve proven they can score with 27 or more points in every game but one (Ohio State) this season. We don’t see Michigan being able to pull away in this game. Also, do the Wolverines have much to play for here? Not really. Their chances to win the Big Ten East are pretty much out the window. If OSU beats PSU this weekend, the Buckeyes clinch the title. If PSU beats OSU, all the Nittany Lions have to do is beat Rutgers next week and they clinch the title. Michigan is on the outside looking in and they have much bigger fish to fry next week facing Ohio State. Take the points in what we think will be a very close game.

FIRST HALF play. Of course if you do not have access to first half line than play the FULL 60 but this is a FIRST HALF line play - #212 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State FIRST HALF LINE (-) over Penn State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We have released 2 first half line plays this year and won both. One of those was this Ohio State team @ Nebraska where they led 38-0 at half. This is a game where we do like the Bucks, however laying 18.5 for the full game is a bit too risky. It’s possible they could be up 24+ and a late meaningless score by PSU could do us in. However, we’re confident they’ll get out to a fast start and look to bury the Nittany Lions early as they do with every team they play. In fact, in their Big Ten games this year, OSU has outscored their opponents 206 to 26 for an average halftime score of 29.5 to 3.7. That’s Big Ten only. Add in their non-conference games and the halftime margins go up. Penn State comes in overrated in our books. They have a 9-1 record but they have been outgained in half of their games this season (5). While OSU is simply destroying every Big Ten opponent (every conference win by at least 24 points), Penn State has had 4 conference wins by 7 points or less. Last week they held on to beat Indiana at home winning by just 7. Again, we like OSU to roll in this game but are more confident they’ll jump on this PSU team in the first half and go into the break with a substantial lead. Take Ohio State (-) in the first half.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Wyoming Cowboys (-) over Colorado State Rams, Friday at 9:30 PM ET: Game #114

Wyoming fell just short at Utah State last week but they are in a good situation to bounce right back this week.  The Cowboys are back home where they are 5-0 this season and this is their home finale.  Wyoming is going to go all out here to finish this season with a perfect record at home. The line on this game as of Thursday afternoon is a 6.5 and we look for the Cowboys to win by at least a TD (our forecast is two TDs) in this one.  The margin of victory for Wyoming in their 5 home wins this season is 17.6 points per win.  Each of the Cowboys last 3 home wins have come by 13 points or more.  Colorado State is facing the reality that a bowl game is highly unlikely.  Yes the Rams can still become bowl eligible with two wins to close out the season but their remaining schedule is this road game at Wyoming and then a date with Boise State!  The handwriting is on the wall for the Rams after they got blasted at home by Air Force last week.  That being said, this is a difficult situation in which to try and rally the troops.  While the Cowboys are allowing just 15.4 points per game at home this season, the Rams are allowing 38.6 points per game on the road.  5 of Colorado State's 6 losses this season have come by a double digit margin.  The average margin of defeat for the Rams is 15 points per loss.  Given all of the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for the Cowboys to win this one by a margin of two touchdowns.  Colorado State led Air Force 14-10 at the half last week in a game that would have given them their 5th victory and a better chance at getting that key number of 6 wins for bowl eligibility.  The fact the Rams fell apart in the 2nd half and got outscored by a margin of 28-7 (at home too!) is the type of tough loss that is nearly impossible to bounce back from.  The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS the last 7 times they have been a home favorite in a Mountain West match-up.  We look for them to get the cash again in that role here!  Lay the points with Wyoming as a home favorite in evening action Friday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Denver Nuggets -5 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET – In our opinion Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in the NBA so it’s hard to believe his record off a SU loss is just 20-18 SU since the start of last season. Boston has gotten off to a fantastic 11-3 start this season but depth is a concern, especially in this situation with it being their 5th straight road game and the higher altitude of Denver. The Celtics have struggled with their shooting of late and we feel it catches up to them here. Boston has hit less than 42% from the field in four straight games. The Nuggets defensive efficiency rating is 4th best in the NBA and they are holding foes to under 43% shooting in their last five games. Denver got off to a slow start but are hitting their stride with wins in 7 of their last eight games which includes home wins over Miami, Philly and Houston who are all comparable to the Celtics. Denver is 44-12 SU at home since the start of last season with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. Lay the points.  

ASA play on: Houston Texans -3.5 over Indianapolis Colts, 8:20PM ET – This is a huge game for both teams as it may decide the AFC South. From a situational standpoint we must take the Texans, at home, on a short week and playing with same season revenge as they lost in Indy a few weeks ago. Not too mention, the Texans are off a HORRIBLE showing against the Ravens last week. But this game will be different as they don’t face a mobile QB like Lamar Jackson who threw for 222 yards, 4 TD’s and rank for another 86. The Colts are off a big win against Jacksonville at home with Jacoby Brissett throwing for just 148 total yards, 1 passing TD and 1 INT. These two teams have played nearly identical schedules yet the Colts net yards per play differential is minus -0.3 while the Texans is even. Houston relies heavily on QB Watson who has 8 TD’s and zero INT’s in his last two home games with 705 passing yards. We like the home team here and will lay the points.

ASA 10* play on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – These two teams have met on this floor already this season with the Raptors coming out on top by 9-points as a 5-point favorite. That was the 5th straight time the Raptors have beaten the Magic and there is no reason to think that streak ends tonight. Orlando hasn’t won a road game this season and have a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG when away from home. Historically the Raptors have had some of the best numbers at home and this year their average point differential of +13.8PPG is second in the league. Much has been made of the Magic’s improved defensive efficiency numbers that rank them 9th in the NBA but Toronto has a better points per possession defense allowing just 1.030PPP which ranks them 5th. Orlando isn’t nearly as good as the Raptors on the other end of the court as Toronto ranks 10th in offensive efficiency, Orlando 24th. Yes, the Raptors don’t have Kyle Lowry in the lineup but VanVleet and Powell will pick up the slack in the backcourt. Lay the points with Toronto tonight.

ASA 10* play on: Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET – The line on this game smells fishy which means we back the team that doesn’t look right. Let’s look at the number on this game. In comparison the Celtics were plus this same number in Milwaukee earlier this year and the Bucks are one of the four best teams in the NBA. Phoenix was recently a -1-point favorite over a Philadelphia team that grades out slightly lower than Boston.  Boston had won 10 straight games prior to yesterday’s loss in Sacramento. So why is this number as high as it is? Because they want you to take the Celtics and the points. The Celtics have the 3rd best average differential in the NBA at +8PPG, Phoenix is 5th at +7.1PPG. Both teams are top 5 in offensive efficiency and top 12 in defensive efficiency. The Celtics are coming off a loss yesterday and playing their 3rd game in four nights so fatigue is a factor, especially considering the Suns have been off since the 14th. Boston’s road wins aren’t spectacular as they haven’t beat a winning team on the road and the combined record of those teams are 20-45 SU. Phoenix on the other hand has some quality games at home with wins over the Philadelphia and the Clippers and a 1-point loss to Utah. The bet here is on Phoenix at home minus the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON UNC Greensboro -9 over Appalachian State, Monday at 7 PM ET

UNCG is one of the favorites this year in the Southern Conference and we catch them here off a loss to Montana State as a 15 point favorite.  Greensboro took 29 more shots in the game but simply shot poorly hitting only 36% while Montana State hit 52%.  It was just one of those games where the ball was not going in the basket for UNCG.  It was also a poor defensive effort from a team that has been very good on that end of the court ranking 26th nationally in defensive efficiency 2 years ago and 74th last season.  Many of the key components are back from a team that finished 29-7 last year and this program has won 25+ game three straight seasons.  They finished 14-1 at home last year with their only loss coming at the hands of Wofford who was 30-5 a year ago.  Now off a rare home loss we expect them to have a huge bounce back and play very well in this game.  In a round robin type format, UNCG is hosting App State, Tennessee Tech, and Montana State.  They played Tennessee Tech on Friday (won by 34) and Montana State on Saturday (upset 1 point loss).  App State played both teams as well here in Greensboro (lost to Montana State & beat Tenn Tech) so they each will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Advantage goes to the home team for sure in that situation.  Unlike UNCG, App State has not been a successful program with their last winning season coming back in 2011 (16-15 record).  They hired a new coach Kerns from Presbyterian and he is trying to turn this program around.  While he may just do that, it won’t happen this season.  Greensboro plays pressure defense creates turnovers at a high rates ranking in the top 30 in defensive turnover rate each of the last 3 season.  It’s early in the season but they are at it again turning their opponents over 28% of the time ranking them 12th nationally.  App State ranks 254th so far this season in offensive turnover rate.  This isn’t a great match up for the Mountaineers and they will be facing an angry Greensboro team that is used to winning at home.  UNCG wins by double digits. 

ASA 8* PLAY ON New Orleans -5 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Sports handicapping 101 dictates looking at good teams off a loss or bad teams off an upset win. We get both in this game with the Saints off an upset home loss to Atlanta in which they played terribly and the Bucs off beating Arizona. The last time the Saints were off a loss this year they went to Seattle as a 5-point dog and won outright. They then ripped off 6 straight wins which included a 7-point win over this same Tampa Bay team. The final score in that first meeting is somewhat misleading as they Saints outgained the Bucs 457 to 252 total yards. This Saints team is quietly being overlooked in the NFC but are clearly one of the best teams in the Conference. New Orleans has already won three road games this season against better teams than Tampa, who really doesn’t have much of a home field advantage (3rd lowest attendance). Tampa has already lost at home to Carolina, the Giants and San Francisco and are off a win over 3-6-1 Arizona. The Bucs have 21-turnovers this season and 4+ in the last three games. QB Winston has 14 INT’s on the season and a habit of throwing it to the other team. The kicker here is the Bucs pass defense that is last in the NFL facing Drew Bree’s and Michael Thomas and a top ten passing offense. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +4.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Baltimore has become a bit too public since beating New England a few weeks ago and we feel this line is too high.  Houston is coming off a bye and they absolutely are good enough to win this game outright and the points at +4.5 are giving us some nice cushion if Baltimore does win.  Houston is 3-1 in road games including a win @ KC when the Chiefs had QB Mahomes at 100%.  The Texans dominated that game outgained the potent Chiefs by 163 yards.  The Houston defense allows just 84 YPG rushing (3rd best in the NFL) which matches up very well with what Baltimore likes to do on offense and that is run the ball.  In order to beat this Baltimore team, you need to slow down their running game and force QB Lamar Jackson to try and win through the air.  We think Houston can do just that.  Baltimore has been very good in the underdog role but they are just 2-4 ATS this year when favored.  Let’s not forget that before they beat New England, the Ravens lost at home to Cleveland by 15 points and picked up close wins vs both Cincinnati & Arizona.  The Texans are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this year and they’ve won all 3 of those games outright.  Even when Houston loses, it tends to be a close game.  In fact, since Deshaun Watson took over as the starting QB in 2017, Houston has lost 11 games with him under center and all were by 8 points or less.  We think this one goes to the wire and we’ll take the generous points.  

ASA 8* PLAY ON Washington -1 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

In a battle of 2 bad teams, we’ll side with the host here.  As of this writing, well over 70% of the tickets have come in on the Jets yet this line hasn’t budged off the -2 opener.  In fact, a few spots pushed the opposite direction and went to Washington -2.5 which means the heavy money is coming in on the Skins.  The percentages on this game are very similar to last Sunday’s Jets vs Giants game when everyone was on the Giants (70% plus) and the Jets won the game.  The Jets broke out offensively scoring 34 points however coming into the game they had scored only 8 TD’s in their first 7 games.  We expect them to resort back to their old offensive form here against a Washington defense that has been playing fairly solid allowing just 17 PPG over their last 4.  Offensively we realize the Skins have struggled over the last month or so, however they’ve also faced some very tough defensive teams.  They have played New England, Minnesota, Buffalo, and San Francisco, 4 of the top defenses in the NFL, all since the start of October.  We look for Washington to play much better on offense here vs a Jets defense that has given up 28.2 PPG since mid September.  Situationally, Washington is off a bye while the Jets are coming off a huge game vs cross town rival Giants.  New York is a terrible 0-9-1 ATS the last 10 times they’ve faced a team coming off a bye.  Make that 0-10-1 ATS as we like Washington to win and cover this one.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #336

As we’ve mentioned before in our write ups throughout the season, there is a reason the 6-3 Iowa Hawkeyes are favored over the 9-0 Minnesota Gophers. This line of -3 suggests that despite the records, Iowa and Minnesota are even teams on a neutral field. As we expected, the bettors have flocked to the undefeated dog here with nearly 70% of the wagers currently on Minnesota. Despite that the line has not dropped at all and we expect Iowa to get the win and cover at home here. We realize this is a rivalry game, however this is simply a terrible spot for Minnesota. After playing one of the easiest schedules in America leading up to last week, they finally had their big game. It was a home game vs PSU that the Gophs had been pointing to for at least a month. A game to prove their doubters wrong. They did pick up a 31-26 win but they were outgained by Penn State, had fewer first downs and benefitted from 3 crucial interceptions by Lion QB Clifford. Two of those interceptions led to 14 Gopher points and the third was thrown in the endzone late in the game as PSU was looking for the go ahead score. After a game that was hyped as Minnesota’s biggest home game in over a decade, we can’t see the Gophs playing that well again a week later on the road. This team has played only 2 Big Ten road games this year (@ Purdue & @ Rutgers) and the most recent was nearly a month ago. Now they face an angry Iowa team that lost 24-22 @ Wisconsin last week. The Hawkeyes are a very solid team and not far from having an outstanding record as their 3 losses (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn St) have come by a combined 14 points. The Hawkeye offense has struggled against top notch defenses, the teams listed above, but Minnesota’s stop unit is not in that category. PSU put up over 500 yards last week and we expect Iowa to have success offensively on Saturday. Minnesota had been running through poor defenses heading into last week, however PSU actually shut their rushing attack down quite well allowing only 120 yards on the ground. Minny QB Morgan saved them with a career game (more TD’s (3) than incompletions (2) and we don’t see that happening again on the road. Iowa’s rush defense will come in hungry after Wisconsin ran all over them last week. Prior to that the Iowa defense has allowed only 89 YPG on the ground and we look for them to really slow down Minnesota’s running game again this week. We also don’t expect Morgan to go off for another career type game. Let’s also remember this is a young Minnesota team consisting of mainly freshman and sophomores playing key roles so responding on the road after last week might be too much to ask. Iowa City has been a house of horrors for the Gophers as their last win here was way back in 1999. We’ll call for Iowa to win by more than a FG.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming Cowboys (+) over Utah State Aggies, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #353

Not only is Wyoming 6-3 SU and ATS on the season, the 3 SU losses the Cowboys have all came by 4 or less points. Out of 9 games this season no one has soundly beaten Wyoming and that includes the Broncos last week in a game played at Boise State. The Cowboys, with back-up QB Tyler Vander Waal, nearly pulled off the outright upset as a 2 TD+ dog at Boise last week. There has been a different "feel" in the Wyoming locker room this season and this team just gives it all they have week after week in terms of their effort no matter the situation. With that being said, we certainly look for the Cowboys to give the Aggies all they can handle this week. Utah State is off an upset win at Fresno State last week so this sets up perfectly. Prior to that win over the Bulldogs, the Aggies had lost 3 of 4 games and the 3 losses all came by big margins. Those 3 losses for Utah State featured an average margin of defeat of 29 points per game! Last season the Cowboys got the ATS cover for the 3rd straight time in this series with the Aggies but Wyoming did lose the game SU at home even though they held a 331 to 194 yardage edge! It was a fluke final score and the Cowboys now have a score to settle with Utah State in this season's rematch. Aggies QB Love is highly touted but he has more INTs than TDs this season and has struggled badly in his two career meetings with the Cowboys as well. Wyoming's pass defense has been a strength again this season and Love has 4 INT's and 0 TD's in his two career games against the Cowboys D. On the other side of the ball, Wyoming relies heavily on their ground game and should enjoy some success on the ground here. The Aggies front seven on defense suffered a major blow with the loss of linebacker David Woodward. Already without a senior defensive lineman (Fua Leilua) that was expected to be a key contributor this season, the loss of Woodward is huge. He had 134 tackles last season and already had 93 this season. The Cowboys take advantage and QB Vander Waal certainly had a respectable game against a tough 8-1 Boise State team last week. All it takes is a little success with the aerial attack (like he had last week) to open things up even more for the ground game! On that note, Utah State has allowed 275 rushing yards per game the past 3 weeks. Per our computer math model, the Aggies defense gets run on big in this game too and once again Love has another bad game against a Cowboys pass defense that has given him fits each of the past two years. More of the same here and we'll bet this game with the points but we don't expect to need them! Grab the points with Wyoming as a road dog in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Texas Longhorns (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #377

We were on Texas last week and felt we should have covered that game but that’s the way things go sometimes in this gambling biz. KSU jumped out to a 14-0 lead on the Horns after their first 2 offensive possessions. The Cats had 138 yards and 14 points on their first 2 possessions and after that the Texas defense really played well allowing just 3 points (the only other TD for KSU was 98 yard kickoff return) and just 166 yards the remainder of the game. The Longhorn offense averaged 7.3 YPP on nearly 500 total yards vs a very solid KSU defense. The Horns outgained the Cats by 130 yards in the game. Again, the 98 yard kickoff return after Texas went up 10 in the 4th quarter was the killer. We felt the Texas defense, which hadn’t been playing well heading into last week, would be much better as a number of key players on that side of the ball returned to action after their bye the previous week. They did play very well and we expect that to continue. This team is a bit undervalued right now in our opinion. As for ISU, we’re not sure how they get up off the floor so to speak. They went to Oklahoma last week and rallied late from 21 points down in the 3rd quarter only to lose 42-41 when they failed on a 2-point conversion going for the win in the final seconds. That’s going to be very tough to rebound from. The physical and emotional energy used in that comeback only to fall short should have an affect here. The Cyclones have simply found a way to lose close games this year (4 losses each by 7 points or less) and we see this one playing out in a similar fashion. Their home field hasn’t been great this year as they’ve already lost outright here vs Iowa and Oklahoma State and barely beat Northern Iowa in OT. The Horns have owned this series as of late winning each of the last 3 seasons and ISU has NEVER been favored over Texas and now they are laying a full TD. We like Texas to keep this game close and we’ll grab the points.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Nebraska -6.5 over South Dakota State, Friday at 8 PM ET

The Huskers come into this game with an 0-2 record giving us some line value here.  Their most recent game was a home loss to a very solid Southern Utah team in OT.  The Huskers were laying 7.5 and 8 in that game vs an SUU team that is rated 10 to 15 spots higher than this South Dakota State team yet Nebraska is laying just 6.5 here.  Nebraska is working with a new head coach Fred Hoiberg who has big success at Iowa State.  He is integrating a number of new but talented players into the lineup.  They looked very poor in their season opener, but much better against Southern Utah although Nebraska did blow an 11 point halftime lead in that game.  SUU went to BYU a few days after their game @ Nebraska an nearly beat a very solid Cougar team so they are solid.  Now the Huskers have had off since November 9th and we expect a solid effort here in a very important game for them.  They do not want to drop to 0-3 with some big road games coming up vs Washington State (neutral site), @ Georgia Tech, @ Creighton, and @ Indiana.  South Dakota State is also replacing their head coach TJ Otzelberger who took the head job at UNLV.  New head coach Eric Henderson has very few experienced players to work with this year.  While Nebraska has had nearly a week off to regroup, South Dakota State was in California facing Cal State Bakersfield in Nov 9 (win in OT) and @ USC on Nov 12 (18 point loss).  Now just a few days later they are in Nebraska taking on a desperate Husker squad.  We’ll lay this small number and look for Nebraska to pick up a big win here.  

ASA PLAY ON 9* North Carolina Tar Heels (+) over Pittsburgh Panthers, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #313

These teams have met six times as ACC foes and the Tar Heels have won all six of the games both straight-up and against the spread!  Both teams are off a bye week and North Carolina can't wait to get back on the field after a tough 7-point loss to a quality Virginia team prior to their bye - Tar Heels outgained the Cavs by over 100 yards!  The Panthers got a win before their bye week but it came against a Georgia Tech team having a rough season as this is a transition year for the 2-7 Yellow Jackets.  Pittsburgh is averaging just 21 points per game this season which ranks them around the #110 spot in the nation.  Though the Panthers defense is their strong suit, the Tar Heels defense had allowed 25 points or less in 6 of 8 games before having a tough time with the Cavaliers in their most recent game.  The key to the match-up edge for UNC here is that they are averaging 446 yards per game on offense and are clearly the stronger team on that side of the ball.  That yardage average would be even higher if the Heels did not have to face Clemson.  Pittsburgh does not face Clemson this season and, overall, the Tar Heels have played the tougher schedule this season which also is not properly factored into this line (Pitt opened at -4) in our opinion.  The Heels offense, since the loss to Clemson, has averaged 512 yards per game in 4 games.  The Panthers have averaged just 350 yards per game on offense in their 4 games since October 1st.  Per our computer math model, Pittsburgh won't be able to score enough to match the Tar Heels in this one as UNC covers for a 7th straight time in their ACC meetings.  Grab the points with North Carolina as a road dog in evening action Thursday.

ASA play on: Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 over Miami Heat, 6PM ET - *Note early tip time* We love the Cavs here who are a team lumped together with some of the worst teams in the league, but are better than expected. Let’s talk line value first. The Cavs are catching a similar number at home as they were against Boston and Dallas recently who are both better than this Miami team as of this writing. Injuries: The Heat have suspended Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow is out and they have health concerns with Dragic, Johnson, and Herro who are all questionable tonight. The Cavaliers have played the 8th toughest schedule when it comes to efficiency ratings and yet they have the 17th average point differential of minus -0.9PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road this season with a differential of minus -2PPG. Cleveland is 2-2 SU at home and their differential is minus -2.2PPG so in both those scenarios (Miami away, Cavs home) the Cavs are within the spread tonight. Let’s not forget the Cav vets are playing hard to showcase their talents for other teams in the league before trade deadline when this team gets blown up. Take the home dog here and the points!

ASA play on: LA Clippers +2.5 over Houston Rockets, 7:30PM ET – Obviously the biggest game on the card tonight is this one and we are betting the Clippers. These two teams are both 7-3 SU on the season and have some similarities when it comes to general statistics but the biggest advantage the Clippers have is defense. Let’s compare both teams: The Clippers are 8th in offensive efficiency ratings, the Rockets are 3rd. Los Angeles is 11th in defensive efficiency, Houston is 20th. To summarize the Rockets, have a slight edge offensively and the Clippers hold the advantage defensively. But the Clippers numbers have come against the 3rd toughest schedule to date while the Rockets stats have come against the SECOND EASIEST! Houston has one quality win on their resume which was at home against the Bucks.  The Clippers on the other hand have beaten Toronto, Portland, San Antonio, Utah and the Lakers. After facing the much tougher schedule the Clippers average point differential is +5PPG while the Rockets are +1.9PPG against a weak one. L.A. has covered 5 straight, the Rockets are 0-4 AGTS their last four against a team with a winning record. The better defensive team wins outright. Play on: LA CLIPPERS

ASA PLAY ON Western Michigan Broncos (-) over Ohio University Bobcats, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET: Game #303

When Ohio University blasted the Broncos at Western Michigan last season that was their first victory over them since 2006.  Suffice to say the Broncos haven't forgotten the 59-14 shellacking that they were handed by the Bobcats last season.  That was a "phony final" too because it was driven by turnovers.  Ohio U scored 45 first-half points in that game on only 260 yards of offense so that tells you the Bobcats did not dominate the game in the way you would think given the scoreboard result.  Coming into this game the Broncos have all the momentum.  Each team is alive in their respective divisions within the MAC but it is Western Michigan with the momentum.  The Broncos are off back to back wins and have won 3 of their last 4 games.  The Bobcats lost Wednesday and that was their 2nd loss in their past 4 games.  Ohio U was at home against Miami-Ohio Wednesday and the SU loss was also an ATS loss which dropped the Bobcats to 0-5 ATS in home games this season!  Ohio U has allowed 36.5 points per game in its past 4 home games.  The Broncos are averaging 36 points per game on the season and, per our computer math model, Ohio U won't be able to keep up with the high-scoring Broncos in this one.  Bet Western Michigan in what should be a road rout in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA play on: Boston Celtics -3 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:30PM ET – The Celtics will be without Gordon Hayward tonight and yet the line has not fluctuated. That’s because the Celtics have the luxury of moving Marcus Smart into the lineup so don’t expect a drop off for Boston. The C’s were 28-13 SU at home last year with an average differential of +6.8PPG. They are 3-0 SU this season with quality wins over the Bucks and Raptors. Dallas on the other hand is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS on the road this season but 3 of those wins have come against Memphis, New Orleans and Cleveland who have a combined 8-19 record. Going back to 2016 the Celtics have a 105-46 SU home (70%) record and they’ve won those games by an average of +4.8PPG.  We will lay the points here with Boston at home.

ASA NHL PLAY 9* ON Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa Senators, Monday at 7:05 PM ET

The Senators jumped out to a 3-0 lead on Carolina in the 1st period Saturday and cruised to a 4-1 win. That game was in Ottawa however and now the Hurricanes are the host against Sens team that has won just 1 of 7 road games this season. The Canes have won 6 of their 9 home games this season and the value here is with the puck line. Carolina is a -250 favorite on the money line but available right around even money on the puck line. Can we expect a win by two or more goals here? Yes! Carolina's last 6 wins have featured 5 by a multiple goal margin and, in fact, they have won these games by an average margin of 3 goals per game. Overall, only 3 of the Hurricanes last 14 games have been one-goal games. The Senators have 10 losses this season and 8 of them have come by a margin of at least two goals. Carolina has been challenged by head coach Rod Brind'Amour and we expect a very focused Hurricanes team on the ice tonight as they are much better than they've shown in recent games during their current (and rare) 4-game losing streak. The Senators have been held to 2 or less goals in 5 of their 7 road games this season. The Hurricanes have scored an average of 4 goals per game in their 6 home wins this season. Look for at least a margin of 2 goals in this one! Laying the 1.5 goals (and laying a very fair price, currently in -105 range) with Carolina is the value play here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +3.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

You couldn’t ask for a better situation for a wager on the Vikings as they are off a disappointing loss, while the public Cowboys are off a big TV win on Monday night. That makes this a short week for a Cowboys team that is vastly over-rated by playing the 31st easiest schedule in the NFL. The Cowboys have played five games against teams with a combined 7-36 SU record and are the five worst teams in the NFL. Dallas has an average margin of victory this year of +10.6PPG but if you eliminate the previously teams that differential shrinks to just +1.6PPG. They’ve already lost to a pair of comparable teams to the Vikings in New Orleans (without Brees) and home against the Packers. Despite the disparity in scheduling the Cowboys yards per play differential (1.6YPPL) is barely better than the Vikings (1.0YPPL) and a tougher schedule. The Vikings have an average differential of +8.4PPG and have played a much better schedule than Dallas. Minnesota has a 2-3 SU road record this year, but the losses have come against Green Bay, at Chicago when the Bears were decent and then last week in Kansas City. Vikings head coach Zimmer is 17-3-1 ATS when coming off a loss and playing a non-division opponent and a remarkable 40-16-3 ATS when facing a non-NFC North team. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Cleveland -2.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’re definitely buying low on Cleveland here.  Nobody wants to bet the Browns right now after losing @ Denver last week dropping them to 2-6 yet they are favored over the 6-2 Bills here.  There is a reason they are favored in this game and we expect a bounce back game for Cleveland.  We all know they are a very talented team and now they are backed into a corner with everyone seemingly against them.  That’s many times when NFL teams step up and play well.  We also don’t mind fading a Buffalo team that we feel is completely overvalued at this point in the season.  Their 6 wins have come against teams that have a combined record of 9-41 and none have a .500 record.  They have beaten Miami, NY Jets, NY Giants, Washington, Cincinnati, and Tennessee.  Last week they beat a terrible Washington team 24-9 but the Bills had just 268 yards of total offense in that game.  They have also been at home for 5 of their last 6 games so their schedule thus far has been very much in favor of them.  The Buffalo offense is fairly pedestrian ranking 22nd scoring only 19.8 PPG despite playing 4 of the bottom 12 defenses in the NFL this year.  Their defense is overrated in our opinion for the same reason as the Bills have faced 6 of the bottom 9 NFL teams ranked in total offense.  Their run defense has been exposed a bit over the last 3 weeks allowing 127 yards rushing to the Skins, 218 to the Eagles, and 109 to the Dolphins.  Cleveland is one of the better running teams in the NFL (2nd in YPC) and not only will the Browns run Nick Chubb at the Buffalo defense but Kareem Hunt is now eligible as well.  We expect the Browns with their backs against the wall hearing from everyone all week how bad they are, to rise up and play very well on Sunday.  We spoke earlier about why would a 2-6 Cleveland team be favored over a 6-2 Buffalo team?  Here is a very interesting and STRONG stat on that situation.  Over the last 25 seasons, this is just the 7th time in week 6 or later a team winning 25% or less of their games (Cleveland) is favored over a team winning 75% or more of their games (Buffalo).  The favorite (supposed bad team) that has won 25% or less is 6-0 ATS in those games as a favorite!  Again there is a reason Cleveland is favored and we’ll take the Browns on Sunday.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Atlanta +14.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We get Atlanta has won only 1 game this year but they are MUCH better than their record.  They have actually outgained their opponents this year averaging 385 YPG on offense while allowing 379 defensively.  Those are not the numbers of a 1-7 team, more like a .500 team.  Matt Ryan is back under center and we definitely think the Falcons will do enough on offense to keep this game within 2 TD’s.  Before his injury Ryan topped 300 yards passing in every game and they scored at least 24 points in 4 of those 6 games.  Getting to 20 here should be enough to get the cover and fully anticipate the Birds doing just that.  The Saints have won and covered 6 straight and now they are at the point where they are overvalued in our opinion.  Let’s not forget this is a big time NFC South rivalry and this is the HIGHEST spread ever in this game!  Only 2 of the last 18 meetings in this rivalry have been decided by more than 2 TD’s and over the last 8 meetings the average margin of victory was 8 points.  Atlanta has also been very successful on the road in this series with a 26-12 ATS record since 1980.  Just to give you an idea of the value we are getting here, this year Atlanta was +3 @ Minnesota, +1 @ Indianapolis, and +4 @ Houston.  We look for Atlanta to play their best game of the year off last week’s bye and keep this one much closer than most think.    

NOTE - This pick was posted before Stafford was declared out.  We'd still consider Detroit at +7 over higher.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Detroit +3 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Bears offense is just putrid.  There is on arguing that.  They rank 29th in the NFL in total offense and 29th in yards per play (YPP) offense.  Last week vs the Eagles they had a grand total of NINE yards at halftime.  They lost the game 22-14 but it really should have been much worse as Philly outgained the Bears by over 200 yards.  The defense absolutely has to carry this team and we see a problem looming.  The Chicago defense looks like they are running out of gas.  Defenses that get tired as the season progresses tend to give up rushing yardage.  Over the last 3 games, the Chicago defense has allowed 146, 162, and 151 yards on the ground.  Now the Lions aren’t a great running team but the fact that Chicago’s defense is slipping a bit is telling.  If that continues to happen, this team is in big trouble.  We had Oakland over this Detroit team last week and picked up a win with the Raiders.  However, we were impressed with the Detroit offense that had nearly 500 yards of offense.  Detroit QB Stafford gives us a huge edge at that position over Chicago’s Trubisky who has lost all of his confidence.  Stafford has quietly had a very good season with 2,500 yards on 19 TD’s.  His rating puts him at 5th in the NFL among starting QB’s while Trubisky’s rating has him at 29th.  The Lions have scored at least 24 points in 6 of their 8 games.  With Chicago’s defense trending downward allowing 24 points or more in 3 of their last 4, we think Detroit can get into the 20’s here.  If so, we just don’t see how the Bears offense, who has scored 10 offensive TD’s in 7 games with Trubisky under center, can keep up and win, much less cover.  Even in their losses, Detroit has been very competitive with a chance to win each (with the exception of Minnesota).  The led Green Bay on the road entering the 4th quarter and lost 23-22 on a last second FG.  They led KC (when Mahomes was healthy) late in the 4th and Mahomes led the Chiefs to a game winning TD (34-30 win) with 20 seconds remaining.  Last week @ Oakland, the Lions ended the game at the Raider 1-yard line with a chance to tie.  You see the point.  Those are all solid teams and Detroit could have won all of them.  We think they break through here and beat a bad Chicago team so we’ll take the points.

ASA FIRST HALF LINE PLAY ON 9* Clemson Tigers (FIRST HALF LINE) over NC State Wolfpack, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #117

If you do not have access to the First Half Line than play this one for the full game. The fact is that this one has the makings of an absolute blowout but rather than laying 32 points for the game, we’re confident Clemson will be ahead at halftime by more than 19 points so we’ll take the first half line here. The danger of laying 32 for the game would be the Tigers getting a big lead and letting up late allowing NC State the possibility of a back door cover. We won’t have that situation to worry about in the first half. Since their one scare this year @ North Carolina (a 21-20 Clemson win) the Tigers offense has scored 45, 45, 59, and 59 points. They have outgained their last 4 opponents by 1,530 yards or +382 yards per game. Looking at their season, Clemson often gets off to big half time leads as not one opponent this year has scored more than 7 points in the first half with the exception of UNC. The Tigers have outscored their opponents 239 to 36 in the first half and that includes a 14-14 halftime score @ UNC. Many of those games vs teams that are better than this NC State squad. The Wolfpack are 4-4 but their wins have come against Western Carolina, East Carolina, Ball State and Syracuse. Their four losses have all come in conference play and all were easy wins for their opponents. They lost by 34 points to Wake, 21 points to BC, 18 points to Florida State, and 17 points to West Virginia. Clemson is obviously far superior to any of those teams and they all handled NC State quite easily. They are really struggling offensively with 16 or fewer points in 3 of their last 4 games. Last week they scored just 10 points @ Wake (a 44-10 loss) who was allowing 27 PPG to their FBS opponents entering last week’s game. Wake’s defense ranks 69th nationally in total defense and was actually the BEST defense NC State has faced this season. Now they face the Tigers who rank 4th nationally in total defense and 3rd in defensive efficiency (yards per play). There is a chance that State doesn’t score in this game but if they do we think it will be late in the game when its already out of reach. Also, let’s not discount that this Clemson team, who won the National Championship last year, feels they are being disrespected after ranking #5 and not currently in the BCS Final four in the initial rankings that came out earlier this week. They’re primed to blast someone and we think they’ll come out with guns a blazing as they say in the first half here.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Missouri Tigers (+) over Georgia Bulldogs, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #181

Tigers QB Kelly Bryant is on the injury report this week but he has been upgraded to probable and, as of Thursday afternoon, is on track and "ready to go" for Saturday. He has been taking the majority of the 1st team repetitions in practice. The Tigers defense could be the real story in this match-up. Missouri is catching the Bulldogs off a big win over Florida last week in Jacksonville. Georgia is favored by nearly 17 points in this match-up with the Tigers. That is big overlay in this game considering that this is a Missouri defense that, after a tough opening week performance that led to a loss at Wyoming, has helped lead the way to a 5-2 run for the Tigers as they have allowed just 15.4 points per game in those 7 games. Missouri's offense did struggle in their past two weeks but, coming off their bye week, they'll be ready to bounce back here and Bryant had to exit their previous game (at Kentucky). Georgia is not only off the big win over Gators, they have big games on deck with Auburn and Texas A & M too. The Tigers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Bulldogs. Per our computer math model, Missouri will bounce back from the 29-7 loss at Kentucky that preceded their bye week. They don't get the SU win here but they get the all-important cover. Georgia has failed to cover 8 straight games when they are at home facing a team with a winning record that is off a loss by a margin of more than 14 points. Grab the big points with Missouri as a road dog in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Wisconsin Badgers(-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #194

We love how this game sets up for the Badgers. They began the season with a perfect 6-0 record and rolled over their opponents by a combined score of 255 to 29 or an average score of 42 to 5. Two of those wins came against Michigan (35-14) and Michigan State (38-0). Their defense pitched 4 shutouts in those first 6 games. In game 7 they traveled to Illinois and were upset 24-23. It was a look ahead game for UW with Ohio State on deck and they simply didn’t play well. With that said, A LOT had to go wrong in the final quarter for them to lose that game and it did. The Badgers outgained the Illini significantly and held a 23-14 lead with 7:30 remaining AND had the ball inside the Illini 30 yard line. Any type of score there and the game is over. Wisconsin fumbled and Illinois scored 4 plays later to make it 23-21. Then another Badger turnover late led to the Illinois game winning FG. Two weeks ago before the bye UW lost big @ Ohio State which doesn’t affect our handicap here at all. OSU is simply that good. Wisconsin should really be 7-1 which is right where we thought they’d be as of a few weeks ago. Getting them at home, off 2 losses, laying less than 10 we feel is a bargain. Iowa is solid but lost both of their step up games in the Big Ten to Michigan and Penn State. The Hawkeye offense has struggled big time vs good defenses this year. They have played 2 games this year vs defenses ranked in the top 30 in total defense (Michigan & Penn State) and scored a grand total of ONE touchdown in those two games combined! Now they face a Wisconsin defense that ranks 1st in the nation in total defense, 2nd in defensive efficiency (yards per play), and 4th in scoring defense. Not only that, it’s a defense that was embarrassed in their most recent game allowing 38 points to Ohio State and had a bye week to stew over that performance. Iowa won’t score much in this game. We realize Iowa’s defense is very solid as well but Wisconsin’s offense has proven they can score against similar defenses. They put up 35 at home on Michigan (7th nationally in total defense) and 38 on Michigan State (20th in total defense). Iowa will be without their top WR (Smith) and possibly their leading tackler (Welch) on Saturday. Wisconsin has owned this series winning 6 of the last 7 and they beat Iowa 28-17 last year in Iowa City and it was a down year for the Badgers in 2018 (8-5 record). If that team can win by double digits @ Iowa last year, we have no doubt this team can cruise in this game on Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Longhorns (+) over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #184

The sharp money is on Texas in this game. As of Thursday afternoon, 67% of the tickets are being written on Kansas State in this game since the line opened up at -5 and yet the Longhorns are now up to a -7. That tells you that the bigger wagers are coming in on Texas in this one. The set up here is ideal as the Wildcats are off back to back huge wins. In the past three weeks Kansas State is off 3 straight big wins. They won at home against TCU, then upset Oklahoma when they hosted the Sooners and then followed that up with a huge win against the rival Jayhawks at Kansas. Sure one could argue that Kansas State has plenty of momentum here but what we see with this is an over-rated Wildcats team due for a letdown game. That is why they are ranked 20th in the nation and yet odds makers are favoring the un-ranked Horns in this spot! The fact is that upset wins, of course, do happen in College Football and the Wildcats put it all together when they upset the Sooners two weeks ago. However, Kansas State's other 5 wins this season have included a win over an FCS school (Nichols State) and 4 other FBS teams of which NONE have a winning record. The Longhorns are going to be ready here. They are coming off a bye week and this followed a game in which QB Sam Ehlinger threw 4 interceptions in an ugly loss against TCU. Poor games on offense have certainly been the exception rather than the norm this season for Ehlinger and the Horns. Texas has been particularly strong in Austin as they have averaged 42.3 points in their 4 games at Memorial Stadium this year. Where the Longhorns have had issues this season is on the other side of the ball but therein lies the key to this match-up. Texas is coming off a bye week and finally near 100% health on the defensive side of the ball. The key is their secondary is getting back to full strength this week. Both safeties Caden Sterns and BJ Foster are coming back this week. Also, DeMarvion Overshown is expected to play for the first time this season as the defensive back got injured right before the season in fall camp and has been upgraded to probable for this game. Texas was counting on Overshown as a key member of the secondary as well and you can see why we're expected a much improved performance from the Longhorns defense in this one. They are finally healthy and they catch the Wildcats at the right time and in the right place to deliver a blowout win and that is precisely what our computer math model is forecasting here. The home team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series. Make that 8-0 ATS when this one goes into the books! Lay the points with Texas and look for a home blowout in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA Play on: Utah Jazz +3 over Milwaukee Bucks, Friday 9PM ET – This is simply a bad number set by the oddsmakers and we’ll gladly take the value with the home team Jazz. Consider this: Utah was just favored by -2.5 points at home over a Philly team that is VERY comparable to Milwaukee and a -7.5 point favorite against the Clippers at home (minus Kawhi). The Jazz won both of those games and are unbeaten at home this season. Last year the Jazz were 29-12 SU at home with the 6th best home point differential at +7.9PPG. Going back further the Jazz are 30-16 their last 46 regular season home games with an average winning margin of +4.8PPG (11th best in the NBA). Milwaukee is clearly one of the best teams in the NBA and have some impressive road numbers including a 27-14 SU record away from home in the regular season last year. The Bucks road differential a season ago was +5.6PPG which was 2nd best in the league but that’s barely better than the spread here. The home team has won and covered 4 in a row in this series and with the vast majority of public money and tickets bet on the Bucks, we’ll go opposite and take the home team Jazz.

ASA NHL PLAY 9* ON Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Detroit Red Wings, Friday at 7:35 PM ET

The Bruins are off a loss.  The Red Wings are off a loss.  For Boston, this is VERY unusual.  For Detroit, this is becoming ALL too familiar.  In fact the Red Wings have lost 12 of its past 13 games.  Overall Detroit has lost 13 games this season and 11 of the 13 defeats have come by a margin of 2 goals or more.  Of course Boston is a huge favorite (-250 range) on the money line here because of stats like this.  But the value here is found in laying the 1.5 goals.  In doing so you get the hungry Bruins without laying any juice or a very small price (-105) and they just need to win the game by 2 goals or more.  Not only is that likely because of all the Red Wings struggles, lets take a look at what Boston has been doing this season.  They had won 6 straight games prior to their controversial one goal loss at Montreal Wednesday.  Keep in mind that was a very tough spot for the Bruins too because they were off a fierce battle with the Penguins which resulted in a two goal win the night before.  Speaking of wins by a margin of 2 or more goals, Boston has 11 wins this season and the first 3 came by a single goal but since then ALL EIGHT of their wins have come by 2 or more goals.  The Bruins are fired up here and losing 3 of 4 to Detroit last season also insures proper focus here.  That means a road rout will be the ultimate result here.  Laying the 1.5 goals (and laying a very fair price, currently in -105 range) with Boston is the value play here.

ASA 10* Play On: #552 Denver Nuggets -4.5 over Miami Heat, 9PM ET – We are getting value here with the home team Nuggets who are off to a slow start by the standards set for them this season, while the Heat are over-valued by a hot start. Miami does have a pair of quality wins on their resume against Houston and Milwaukee, but their other three wins have come against Atlanta and Memphis. With a 5-1 SU record and a public team, the Heat will have the Nuggets full attention tonight. Denver is 71-21 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season with an average margin of victory of +7.9PPG. Last season Denver had the second most efficient offense in the NBA at home last year at 1.172PPG and the 5th best defensive efficiency allowing 1.064PPP. Denver was 34-7 at home last year and won by an average of 10.6PPG. The Heat are clearly over-valued tonight considering they were a 7-point dog at a lesser Minnesota and +11.5 points in Milwaukee. This Nuggets team was one of the favorites to win it all this season. Denver lost their last home contest and will send a message tonight. Lay the points.

ASA 10* play on: LA Clippers -4 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – The Clippers are the best team in the NBA right now and Paul George hasn’t even seen the floor yet. Here’s what we’ve seen in this small sample size of the NBA. The Clippers have played the 4th toughest schedule to date based on opponents offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, yet they have the 11th best point differential at +4.7PPG. They are unbeaten at home with a point differential of +10.4PPG. Utah is going to be one of the better NBA teams this season, but they’ve played the second easiest schedule and current numbers are inflated. Utah faced the Lakers in Los Angeles earlier this season and were plus +3.5 points so the adjustment by the oddsmakers isn’t enough for the better of the two L.A. teams. Just how good is Kawhi Leonard you ask? He currently leads the Clippers in scoring, rebounding and assists. The Clippers just lost in Utah the other night but Kawhi was rested due to load management. He’ll play here and lead the Clippers to a double-digit home win.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

Oakland is just happy to be home where they have not played since September 15th!  They’ve played 5 consecutive games away from home including a game in London a few weeks back.  They also had a bye thrown in so 6 full weeks and you can bet the loyal Black & Silver followers will be amped up for this game.  The Raiders were 2-3 on their road trip and were quite impressive based on their competition.  They beat Indy & Chicago during that stretch with losses @ GB, @ Minnesota, and @ Houston.  They actually outgained GB on the road but the game turned on a few key turnovers including one late in the 1st half that turned into a 14 points swing in favor of the Packers.  Last week @ Houston the Raiders never trailed until 6:00 minutes remaining in the game in a 27-24 loss and they outgained the Texans drastically averaging 7.1 YPP to just 5.2 for Houston.  On that 5 game road swing the Raiders played the 2 best teams in the NFC North and the 2 best teams in the AFC South and presented themselves very well.  On top of that, they played KC when Mahomes was a full strength so 5 of their 7 games this season have come against some of the top teams in the NFL.  This team is better than their 3-4 record.  Detroit comes in with a 3-3-1 record on the season and they are getting outgained by an average of 41 YPG (379 on offense / 420 on defense).  Their defense has been very poor ranking 31st in the NFL in total defense ahead of only Cincinnati.  The Lions have allowed at least 430 yards in 3 of their last 4 games.  They also allow 130 YPG on the ground which is a bad match up here vs an Oakland running game that puts up 131 YPG.  That should open things up for QB Derek Carr and we look for the Raider offense to have a big game vs a Detroit defense that has allowed at least 23 points in all but one game this season.  Oakland wins and covers at home.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Tampa Bay +5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

Seattle is 6-2 on the season but drastically overvalued in our opinion.  They are getting outgained on the season -0.2 YPP and 5 of their 6 wins have come against teams that are currently below .500.  The Seahawks are just 2-2 at home and both wins have come by just 1 point (over Bengals and Rams).  They have been drastically outgained by 2 BAD teams this year.  Last week a 1-7 Atlanta team outgained Seattle by 188 yards last week (7.2 YPP for Atlanta / 5.9 for Seattle) and earlier this year the 0-8 Bengals outgained Seattle by 197 yards (6.1 YPP for Bengals / 4.7 YPP for Seattle).  Despite their east schedule, the Seahawks have only one win by more than 7 points (@ Arizona).  Tampa is the opposite of Seattle in that they are better than their 2-5 record.  Last week’s game @ Tennessee was a good summary of how the Bucs season has gone this year.  They lost 27-23 but outgained Tennessee by over 100 yards.  Tampa had a scoring play nullified by the officials late in the game which would have given Tampa the win.  The NFL admitted it was a mistake and apologized to TB.  The Bucs have had lots of bad luck this season for a pretty solid team.  They’ve shown they can get it done on the road already beating Carolina and the LA Rams away from home.  Despite their 2 wins thus far, the Bucs have outgained their opponents by +0.2 YPP.  Seattle has a huge division game on deck with San Francisco and we can see them peaking ahead here.  We like Tampa to take this to the wire with a solid shot to win outright.  Take the points. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (+) over North Carolina Tar Heels, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #337

Perfect set up to back a solid underdog in this one. While Virginia fell just short at Louisville last week, the Tar Heels hung on for a tight win over Duke last week in Chapel Hill. The Cavaliers lost the turnover battle 2-0 against the Cardinals and that factored into their loss. Speaking of turnovers, the Blue Devils threw an INT from the NC 2-yard line with under half a minute to go in the 3 point Heels win. After winning a nail-biter like that in dramatic fashion, the Tar Heels could be a little spent this week. That is why they are such a small favorite here despite being at home and facing a Cavaliers team that has lost 3 straight road games. This line looks like an open invitation to take the home team minus the short number and, of course, you know what that generally leads to - a road dog upset! The Heels were fortunate to escape with the win over Duke last week and they won't be so fortunate here. North Carolina is just 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they have been a favorite. Also, the Cavaliers are looking to make it 3 in a row (both SU and ATS) in meetings with UNC as they have had their number in recent meetings. Virginia has been solid defending the pass this season as they are allowing only 58% completions and 166 passing yards per game. Comparing that to North Carolina (64% completions and 242 passing yards allowed per game) and it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for the Cavs to hold a significant edge over the Heels in the passing game in this one. The Tar Heels were fortunate to hang on against Duke and that tight win was preceded by North Carolina losing 3 of their past 4 games including losing to a Sun Belt Conference team and losing to a Virginia Tech team that is really down this season. 3 of UNC's 4 wins this season have come by a combined total of just 10 points and, again, the Tar Heels already have 4 losses this season too. The Cavaliers had allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their first 7 games this season. Coming off a disappointing loss where they gave up 28 points, Virginia's defense is poised for a strong bounce back effort here. The Cavs catch the Tar Heels in a tough spot here as they have played back to back brutally tough games. The war with Duke was preceded by a 6-OT loss at Virginia Tech. Look for North Carolina to run out of gas as this game goes on and the Cavaliers pull away down the stretch. Grab the points with Virginia as a road dog in early evening action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Pittsburgh Panthers (-) over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #317

Our power ratings have Pitt favored by 10 here so we feel we’re getting value with the Panthers.  The reason the line sits at -7.5 we feel is both teams recent results vs Miami FL.  It was the most recent game for each of these 2 teams.  Georgia Tech went to Miami as a +18 point favorite and won the game 28-21 in OT.  Tech had fewer first downs, was outgained in the game and their first score was a defensive TD.  They also caught Miami off a huge win vs Virginia who is one of the favorites to win the ACC Coastal division.  A lot had to go right for Tech to win that game and it did.  Follow that up the next week with Miami traveling to Pittsburgh.  The Canes bounced back from their loss to Ga Tech with a 16-12 win as a 4.5 point underdog.  Despite the loss, Pitt outgained the Canes 322 to 208 and on the ground they held Miami to just 54 yards on 27 carries (Pitt had 176 yards rushing).  So in essence, the Panthers dominated the game and lost at home (3 turnovers didn’t help).  Those two results set this one up nicely.  Pitt sits at 2-2 in the ACC Coastal, one win behind first place Virginia & North Carolina.  This is a must win for them.  Their defense has been superb allowing just 4.2 YPP which ranks them 7th in the nation.  They have been a brick wall vs opposing teams rushing attacks allowing just 85 YPG on 2.6 YPC (ranked 6th nationally in both categories).  They match up very well vs a Georgia Tech offense that loves to run the ball and simply isn’t a very good passing team completing an average of just 11 per game.  Georgia Tech’s offense ranks 118th nationally and will have trouble scoring much in this game.  Remember, the Jackets have switched from their option based offense after head coach Paul Johnson retired last year.  New head coach Geoff Collins has implemented a new system and doesn’t really have the players to fit it yet.  They can’t throw (120th in passing offense) because he has option QB’s on the roster which were recruited by Johnson.  If they can’t run, which will be a struggle here, they are in trouble.  Pitt’s offense is far from dynamic but we feel they won’t have to score much to get this cover.  If they get to their 21 PPG average that may be enough to cover this number.  However, facing a Ga Tech defense that has allowed more points than any other team in the ACC Coastal, we like the Panthers to top 21 points which should be enough here.  Lay it with Pitt. 

ASA PLAY ON 9* Florida State Seminoles (-) over Miami Hurricanes, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #388

Both of these teams come in with a 4-4 record but FSU is the better team right now.  With this line sitting at FSU -3 at home, it’s actually saying Miami is the better team and would be -1 on a neutral field.  We completely disagree with that.  Since blowing a 31-13 lead in their home opener vs Boise (36-31 FSU loss) the Seminoles have won 4 straight at home.  In their ACC home games they have won by margins of 11 (vs Louisville), 18 (vs NC State), and 18 (vs Syracuse).  Miami will be on the road for the 2nd consecutive Saturday after topping Pitt last week as a 4.5 point dog.  The Canes were a bit lucky to pick up that win as they were outplayed quite drastically on the stat sheet.  Miami had just 12 first downs and only 208 total yards of offense as they were outgained by 114 yards.  A week earlier the Hurricanes lost at home to Georgia Tech as an 18 point favorite.  Two weeks prior to that they lost at home to Va Tech as a 14 point favorite.  The fact that they have already lost 4 games outright this season as a favorite tells us they are inconsistent and definitely overvalued.  FSU has had just one poor performance over their last 5 games and that was vs Clemson which was to be expected.  Their only other loss during that stretch was 22-20 @ Wake in a game the probably should have won outgaining the Demon Deacons and holding the lead late in the 4th quarter.   We get this is a rivalry so both teams will be more than ready, however the Noles have had this one circled for a full year or really two years.  In 2017 FSU held a 20-17 lead late until Miami scored a TD with 6 seconds remaining for the win.  Last year in Miami the Noles held a 27-7 lead and lost 28-27.  We expect a very good performance from Florida State here and look for a win by at least a TD. 

ASA PLAY 9* ON Appalachian State Mountaineers (-) over Georgia Southern Eagles, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #304

Last season when Appalachian State faced the Eagles the game was at Georgia Southern.  The Mountaineers were actually ranked then too but lost their QB in the 1st quarter plus lost 5 turnovers in the game!  As a result, it comes as no surprise that App State lost that game by a 20 point margin  That being said, this is not just a typical revenge situation, this is a special one and we fully expect the Mountaineers to make the most of it.  Appalachian State is the much stronger team on both sides of the ball and their 4 victories on their home field this season have come by an average margin of 28.5 points!  While it is true that Georgia Southern comes into this game off 3 straight SU victories, it is also true that the wins came against  a pair of conference foes that are a combined 0-7 in SBC action and a win over a New Mexico State team that is 0-8 on the season.  The point is that the Eagles are really taking a big step up in level of competition here and Appalachian State gets revenge in a big way.  Per our computer math model, the Mountaineers not only improve to 8-0 SU, they also improve to 6-2 ATS on the year.  Lay the big points with Appalachian State in what should be a home blowout in evening action Thursday.

ASA 8* PLAY ON NY Giants +7 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Both teams off 3 straight losses coming into this game.  Detroit has had back to back huge division games vs Green Bay and Minnesota and it could be tough for them to get back up to their top level here after those 2 losses.  The Giants are off losses vs Minnesota, New England and last week played decent against Arizona.  NY lost that game 27-21 but outgained the Cards and had more first downs but lost the turnover battle 3-0.  NYG QB Jones struggled with games vs New England & Minnesota, two of the best defenses in the NFL, but his other action vs lower half defenses he’s been able to put up at least 21 points in each of those games.  He faces a Detroit defense that has allowed at least 430 yards in each of their last 3 games.  The Lions now rank 31st in the NFL in total defense ahead of only Cincinnati allowing 428 YPG.  The Lions put very little pressure on the QB ranking near the bottom of the NFL in sacks per game (1.7) and sack percentage so Jones should have time to operate.  With RB Saquon Barkley back in the line up as well for the 2nd straight week, the Giants should be able to move the ball and score enough to stay in this game all the way.  Detroit has the tendency to play close games no matter what the competition with 6 of their 7 games decided by 4 points.  The only one that wasn’t was their 12 point loss to Minnesota last week.  Road dogs in the NFL have cashing regularly with a big 45-24-1 ATS mark this year.  We like NY Giants and the points here.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Tampa Bay +2.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is a great spot for Tampa on our opinion.  They are coming off a bye and a bad performance two weeks ago vs Carolina in London.  In that game the Panthers won 37-26 but Tampa outgained them by 140 yards and 5.4 to 4.3 on a yards per play basis.  The problem was the Bucs turned the ball over a ridiculous 7 times!  You have absolutely zero chance to win in the NFL if that happens and for them to keep this game to just a margin of 11 points was pretty surprising under those circumstances.  Now the Buccaneers have had 2 full weeks to get ready for this game and we think they’ll play very well off that poor performance in London.  Tampa has been very comfortable on the road this year winning 2 of their 3 true road games including wins @ LA Rams and @ Carolina.  Their only true road loss was at 6-1 New Orleans.  TB is definitely better than their 2-4 overall record as they are actually outgaining their opponents by a 5.9 to 5.7 YPP basis.  Their defense ranks #1 in the NFL against the rush giving up only 2.9 YPC!  That’s a key here as we know Tennessee relies heavily on their running game averaging 27 carries per game.  While Tampa is off a bye, the Titans are off a 23-20 win at home vs the struggling Chargers.  Tennessee was outgained in the game and allowed LA an average of 6.1 YPP.  The Chargers were about to win the game when RB Melvin Gordon fumbled on the 1-yard line with 19 seconds remaining to preserve the 3 point win for Tennessee.  Ryan Tannehill started at QB in favor of Mariota and had a decent game but he’s been pretty average his entire career so we don’t expect a big boost long term for the Titan offense.  Tennessee is 0-3-1 ATS this year as a favorite and they lost 3 of those games outright.  Long term they’ve been a terrible favorite going just 22-37-2 ATS (37%) in that role over the last decade.  This line says these two are close to dead even on a neutral field.  We disagree.  We have Tampa rated as the better team and we’ll take the points in this game.

ASA 10* TOP GAME PLAY ON NY Jets +7.5 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love the value here with the Jets.  This line tells us that If Jacksonville was @ the Jets the line would be around a pick-em with the Jags potentially even favored.  We just don’t see that.  This line is too high and now with Sam Darnold back at QB we feel these teams are actually pretty close which would make Jacksonville -3 or -3.5 here, NOT -6.5.  In this game we get the Jets coming in off an embarrassment on Monday Night football.  They lost 33-0 to New England, not a huge surprise, and had 6 turnovers.  The Patriots defensive schemes can do that to the best of offenses.  We often see teams play much better off games like this.  Often you can get some line value coming off a Monday Night game like that as people see a team struggle or get shutout and are reluctant to wager on them the next week.  We definitely have that in this game.  Let’s not forget a week earlier this NY Jets team, with Darnold back at the helm, beat Dallas.  Now they play a so-so team in Jacksonville who comes in with a 3-4 record and trending downward in our opinion.  We look for the Jets offense to play much better in this game.  They are off a game facing a New England defense that has been historically good this year and now facing a Jacksonville defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in most key stats (total defense, Yards per play defense, rush defense, and pass defense).  They will also be without 3 key LB’s in this game and that means Jacksonville is down to 1 LB who’s played more than 1 snap this season.  Those are key cluster injuries to a very important position.  Most wouldn’t know it but the Jets have a top 10 defense on a yards per play basis allowing just 5.3 – Jags allow 5.9.  The Jets offensive stats are very poor but not reflective of the current offense.  They are a completely different offense with Darnold at the helm and the play calling reflects that.  He has played in just 3 games but has led NY to all but one of their TD’s on the season.  Also remember, that 2 of those games came against New England and Buffalo, two of the top three defenses in the NFL in total yards allowed.  They are facing a Jacksonville team that won 27-17 @ Cincinnati (who’s now 0-7) last week but were trailing 10-9 in the fourth quarter and the Jags were the beneficiary of a pick 6 for 7 of their 27 points.  QB Gardner Minshew was the talk of the NFL in his first few starts but now that there is film on him, he’s come back down to earth a bit and the defenses have adjusted.   In his last 2 games, Minshew has completed just 29 of his 61 pass attempts (47.5%) with only 1 TD and 1 interception.  He also had his two lowest QB ratings in those 2 most recent games.  In their last 2 games vs the Saints & Bengals, the Jaguars had 22 total offensive possessions and Minshew led them to ONE touchdown.  That’s it.  He’s struggling and if that means Jacksonville has to rely on their running game, they are facing a Jets defense that ranks #2 in the NFL allowing only 3.3 yards per carry.  We see this as a tight game throughout and one the Jets can absolutely win.  Getting +7 or more here is worth a solid play in this one.  

ASA PLAY ON 9* Washington State Cougars (+) over Oregon Ducks, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #153

At 4-0 in Pac-12 action, Oregon is atop the Pac-12 North and, on the other side of the standings, at 3-1 in Pac-12 action entering Friday's game at Colorado, USC is atop the Pac-12 South. That holds some significance here because next up for the Ducks is a big game at Southern Cal. The last time Oregon visited USC they left smarting from a 25 point road loss. This is clearly a spot where the Ducks could get caught looking ahead to a big game on deck. Oregon could look right past a 1-3 Washington State team and that will prove to be a mistake as the Cougars are a team that has a history of giving the Ducks trouble. This is particularly true at the betting window as Oregon is 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games against the Cougars. This includes the Ducks going 0-4 SU in their last 4 games against Washington State. The Cougars enter this game with plenty of confidence as coach Mike Leach, when it comes to facing Oregon, has had their number in recent years plus Washington State rolled to a 41-10 home win last week! Even in weather conditions that weren't the greatest, the Cougars got their offense rolling plus showed improve defensive play in knocking off Colorado. With their first Pac-12 win under their belt and an offense that at 7.66 yards per play ranks 4th in the nation for offensive efficiency, the Cougars are going to give the Ducks all they can handle here. Grab the big points with Washington State on the road in late night action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* California Golden Bears (+) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10:00 PM ET: Game #141

Utah is in a huge lookahead spot here. We still expect the Utes to get the win here as they certainly are the superior team to Cal but this is simply far too many points for Utah to be laying in this spot. Last year the Utes lost the Pac-12 Championship game to the Huskies. Next week's game for Utah (you guessed it!) is at Washington! Suffice to say the Utes have that game on their mind a bit as it also difficult for them to get too excited about this match-up with a Golden Bears team that has been struggling. Of course overlooking a Cal team that is ranked 20th in the nation for scoring defense certainly could prevent Utah from covering a spread that is in the 3 TD range here! The Bears have excelled in this role recently as they are actually a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they have been a road dog in Pac-12 action. The Utes have been very strong defensively this season and allowed just 3 points to Arizona State last week. However, a late turnover is what led to Utah getting a somewhat fortunate cover in that one. The Utes "luck" runs out here as Cal is only 4-3 SU on the season but note that Utah is 0-8 ATS when they are off a game where they allowed 9 or less points and are now facing a team with a winning percentage of .599 or less. The Golden Bears will be a scrappy underdog here and hang within the big number the odds makers set on this game. Grab the big points with California as a big road dog in late night action Saturday.

ASA 10* play on: Indiana Pacers -5.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET

These two teams have very different season projections with the Pacers expected to win roughly 48 games while the Cavs season win total is 24. That essentially tells us what these teams are all about, so we have a good team off a loss laying a marginal number on the road. Granted, the Cavaliers are off a loss too but again, they are not a good team. Last season the Pacers were 18-17 SU off a loss, Cleveland was 15-47. Last year the Pacers were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points, so we have some value in today’s spread. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA a season ago with a top 10 road defensive efficiency ratings. The Cavs last season had the 3rd worst home point differential at minus -7.3PPG and were last in home defensive efficiency ratings. In the 4 meetings last season the Pacers won by 8 or more points. The Pacers have covered 5 of the last six meetings on this court. Lay the points.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Temple Owls (+) over UCF Knights, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #124

This is a great value spot with Temple at home.  The Owls are coming off an embarrassing performance at SMU which was to be expected after they upset Memphis here at home the week prior.  Speaking of that Memphis game, the Owls were +4 to +4.5 in that game and now they are getting 10+ points vs UCF.  Why is that significant?  We have UCF and Memphis rated almost the exact same in our power ratings (UCF would be a 1-point favorite on a neutral field) yet we are getting 6 more points in this game.  That’s the value we are talking about.  UCF is overrated in our opinion.  They have played 3 road games this year and lost 2 of those games @ Cincinnati and @ Pitt and were favored in both.  Temple, on the other hand, is 4-0 SU & ATS at home winning 2 of those games outright as underdogs vs Maryland & Memphis.  The Owls have been a consistent money maker as a home underdog with an 8-1 ATS mark their last 9 winning SIX of those games outright.  We also get them at home coming off by far their worst performance of the year @ SMU.  It was a terrible spot for Temple as SMU was off a bye week and a home game vs Tulsa in which they played poorly.  The Mustangs were catching Temple off their Memphis upset as we mentioned, and the Owl defense was shredded for 655 yards.  That is very atypical for this defense that had held 5 of their first 6 opponents under their current scoring average.  UCF QB Dillon is a freshman and hasn’t been great on the road with his 3 lowest QB rating games being his 3 road contests.  Last year Temple was +10.5 @ UCF and led 34-28 at half.  The Owls outgained the Knights in that game but wound up losing 52-40 with UCF scoring 17 points in the last 15:00 minutes of the game.  After the way they lost last year, coming off a poor performance last week, and at home where they’ve been very good, we look for Temple to keep this game close throughout. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #169

Oklahoma State is off what, on the surface, appears to be a blowout loss to Baylor 45-27 last week. However, that game unraveled late for the Cowboys as they were done in by late turnovers. Note that the Bears pulled away late in the game courtesy of some key turnovers. The fact is that Oklahoma State had 27 first downs in the game compared to 18 for Baylor. The point we're making here is that the Cowboys weren't nearly as bad as the final score would indicate in last week's loss and now they're catching double digits against an Iowa State team that comes into this game overvalued. The Cyclones two toughest games this season were hosting Iowa and visiting Baylor. Iowa State lost both games. The Cyclones do have a bye on deck but then face Oklahoma and Texas. Both the Sooners and Longhorns beat Iowa State last season and the loss to the Sooners was the only Big 12 home loss that the Cyclones had all season long. Should the Cyclones lose focus a bit here against a Cowboys team that is 1-3 in Big 12 action (Oklahoma and Texas a combined 7-1 in Big 12 action), Oklahoma State absolutely can make them pay. The Cowboys rank 8th in the nation in total offense this season and Oklahoma State is playing this game with revenge from a home loss to the Cyclones last year. While Iowa State is playing for the 7th consecutive week (and 3 of last 4 have been on the road), the Cowboys had a bye week two weeks ago and will prove to be the fresher team in this match-up. Also, from a motivational standpoint, OSU will bring their A game this week after B2B SU losses by a double digit margin. In fact, this play is also supported by an angle along those lines. The Cyclones are 0-6 ATS the last 6 times they've been favored by 19.5 points or less against an opponent off B2B SU losses including the most recent defeat coming by a double digit margin. The Cowboys will be ready Saturday and have the offense to stay within a score throughout this conference clash. Grab the generous points with Oklahoma State as a sizable road dog in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Michigan State Spartans (+) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #162

We couldn’t ask for a better set up here for MSU.  They are coming off two of their worst losses of the season @ Ohio State 34-10 & @ Wisconsin 38-0.  That’s as tough a back to back road game scenario as anyone in the country had or has this year.  Now we look for MSU, who is coming off a bye, to play with a huge chip on their shoulder at home vs Penn State on Saturday.  The Nittany Lions are on the other end of the spectrum situation wise as they are off a huge home win over Michigan.  It was the most anticipated home game for Penn State this season and a game they had been waiting for after getting embarrassed by Michigan last year.  They picked up a big 28-21 win but PSU was completely outplayed on the field.  They had 12 fewer first downs, were outgained by 125 total yards and had a 15 minute time of possession disadvantage.  After jumping out to a 21-0 lead, Penn State had less than 100 yards of offense from that point on and were held to 1.9 yards per play in the 2nd half.  The Michigan offense, which had been struggling, put up 417 yards, the most PSU has allowed this season.  The Lions held on for dear life at the end and a Michigan dropped pass in the endzone prevented this one from going to OT.  They had nearly the same situation a week earlier as they played a physical game vs Iowa and held on to win 17-12.  Both games were prime time ABC night games.  The way those games played out we expect Penn State to have trouble getting up to their peak level for this road game.  The PSU offense gets credit for being explosive, however the top two defenses they played this year (Michigan & Iowa) held them to 293 & 294 yards respectively and they were outgained in both games.  Now facing an angry MSU defense that is among the best in the nation, we look for the Nittany Lions to struggle offensively on Saturday.  The Spartan defense was allowing just 55 YPG rushing before hitting their OSU & Wisconsin games.  The Buckeyes ran over Sparty for more than 300 yards which wasn’t surprising as the OSU offense might be the best unit in college football right now.  A week later they were more effective holding Badger All American Jonathan Taylor to just 80 yards on 26 carries but you could see MSU was just worn out physically & emotionally from their Ohio State game the week before.  Offensively they did not play well vs those two defenses who rank #1 and #2 NATIONALLY in total defense.  If you throw out those 2 games, MSU is averaging 31 PPG on the season so they are not as bad as they’ve looked the last 2 weeks.  Off a bye, we expect some new wrinkles on offense and facing a PSU defense coming off 2 huge games, we think the Spartan offense will look much better on Saturday.  The have outgained every opponent this year with the exception of OSU & Wisconsin.  Off 2 weeks of rest and two embarrassing performances, we look for the Spartans to play their best game of the season in a must win spot.  We’re getting nearly a field goal of line value here as well in our opinion.  We rate MSU and Iowa nearly dead even on a neutral field yet Michigan State is getting nearly a FG more than what Iowa was getting (+3) at home in this match up just 2 weeks ago and MSU is in a much better situation than the Hawkeyes were.  The Spartans have been a money making underdog with a record of 21-9 ATS their last 30 as a puppy.  They’ve also beaten PSU outright each of the last 2 seasons as a double digit underdog so MSU won’t lack for confidence here.  We like the Spartans to win this game at home so we’re taking the points.

ASA PLAY ON: Utah Jazz +3.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – Yes, we know this isn’t going to be a popular pick as everyone has been brainwashed into thinking LeBron is still the LeBron he was 5 or 6 years ago and this Lakers team will win it all this year. The reality is that LeBron won’t win another Championship! In LBJ’s defense, it gets lost he’s played 16 NBA seasons. But when you add in 239 playoff games it essentially adds three more seasons to his resume. Father time is unbeaten. Moving on, it’s going to take time for this roster to jell and they face a Utah Jazz team that won 50 games a year ago, was 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency and had the 4th best road point differential at +2.7PPG. The Jazz won their opener against OKC the other night and did it with newly acquired Mike Conley going 1 of 16 from the field.  This roster is deep and has playmakers at every position including Donovan Mitchell who scored 32 in the opener. With Joe Ingles in the lineup the Jazz have beaten the Lakers in 14 of the last eighteen meetings. Contrary to what you might think, the Lakers have not been good off a loss with a 4-10 ATS record their last fourteen. The Lakers are going to get everyone’s best punch every single night and the Jazz will come here and send this other Los Angeles team to 0-2.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -2.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – We like the situation and will back the home team Celtics here off a loss in the opener. Toronto is off a home win which was much tougher than it should have been against the Pelicans. The Celtics lost in Philly the other night and the main contributing factor was poor shooting by the C’s. Boston hit just 36.7% of their overall FG attempts and under 27% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages a year ago and now they are at home in a more friendly shooting environment. Last season Boston had a top 12 team at home in: margin of victory, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Granted, Toronto had good road numbers too but that was with Kawhi Leonard who is clearly one of the three best players in the entire NBA. Against a bad defensive team from a year ago, the Pelicans (23rd in DEFF), the Raptors shot just 40% a team and benefited from ‘home cooking’ and +15 free throw makes in their win. Boston is 84-49 SU versus the East since 2017 and 57-26 SU at home as a favorite in that same time frame. With the line where it is, we are basically asking the Celtics to just win this game which they’ll do by more than the spread. Boston has covered four straight at home over Toronto and the host is on a 9-0 spread run.

ASA PLAY ON: NY KNICKS +10.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:30PM ET – It’s a fresh start and the Knicks have a clean slate to start the season after tanking last year. New York doesn’t know how bad they’re going to be this season, so we expect a max effort tonight in San Antonio. In fairness to New York they will win more than 17 games this year with a semi-talented roster that can beat just about anyone in the East on any given night. Julius Randle is coming off his best season with 21PPG, 8.7RPG and 3.1APG and can play at a very high level. The backcourt is athletic with Dennis Smith Jr, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock (out) and RJ Barrett. Marcus Morris and Taj Gibson brings veteran leadership and toughness while Kevin Knox and Bobby Portis have huge upside. New York was a dismal 8-32 SU on the road last season with an average differential of minus -10.8PPG which is essentially tonight’s spread AND that record is with them trying to lose to get the #1 pick in the draft! San Antonio returns a roster of veterans and youth and basically stood pat in free agency. They do get Dejounte Murray back from injury who is a budding star, but he did miss the entire season a year ago. The Spurs were 34-10 SU a year ago at home with an average margin of victory of just +6.7PPG. San Antonio was one of the slowest paced teams at home last year which makes covering larger numbers more difficult with less chances to score for each team. San Antonio was a double-digit home favorite 8 times last year and they only covered twice. New York stays within the number here. Grab the points!

ASA PLAY ON: Toronto Raptors -6.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, Tuesday 8PM ET – The news out of the Big Easy is the injury status of Zion Williamson who is now out for 6-8 weeks after knee surgery. That news doesn’t affect this game though as he was already out for this season opener. The Raptors are without Kawhi Leonard here who left the Great North for green pastures in Los Angeles, but this roster still has talent. Toronto has Marc Gasol in the middle, budding star Pascal Siakam, (All Star) Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby. The Raptors had the 3rd best overall point differential in the NBA last season and the 7th best at home of +7.5PPG. Home court has been a tremendous advantage for the Purple Dinasaurs in recent years as their average margin of victory since 2017 is +8.6PPG. The Pelicans were just 14-27 SU on the road last season with Anthony Davis on the roster. Their average loss margin per game on the road was minus -1.8PPG which was 18th in the NBA. This team is now essentially the Lakers from a year ago with Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart coming to New Orleans in the trade for A.D. Last year when the Lakers went to Toronto, they were +7-points and they had LeBron on that roster. Last year the Raptors won 32 regular season home game and 23 of those wins came by more than tonight’s spread. This Raptors team is going to be very eager to prove it wasn’t all Kawhi last year and they’ll get a double-digit win in the opener.

ASA NHL PLAY 9* ON Columbus Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Toronto, Monday at 7:05 PM ET

The Blue Jackets had a rough start to the season their first two games.  However, since then Columbus has picked up at least a point in the standings in 5 of their last 6 games.  During this stretch every single game the Blue Jackets have played has ended up being a 1 goal game.  Columbus got 3 wins, 2 OT losses, and a 1-goal loss in regulation in these 6 games.  As you can see with those numbers, the Blue Jackets at +1.5 goals would be 6-0 their last 6 games!  As for the Maple Leafs, they are off a win but it was a one-goal win that game in overtime versus Boston.  Also, prior to that win for Toronto they had lost 4 of 6 prior games and that was with John Tavares on the ice!  He is their team captain and one of their star players and he is now out for two weeks with a broken finger.  Columbus has a great shot at the outright upset here but if they do fall short, per our computer math model, the game will be their 7th straight one-goal game.  The Blue Jackets take the Maple Leafs to the wire in this one as they seek to avenge suffering a loss in their home opener versus Toronto earlier this month.  Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying a very fair price, currently in -140 range) with Columbus is the value play here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Seattle comes in with a shaky 5-1 record in our opinion.  Four of their five wins have come down to the wire with margins of 1, 1, 2, and 4 points.  Their only comfortable win was @ Arizona.  All of their 5 wins have come against teams that are currently at or below .500 and again, most were decided in the last few minutes of play.  The only team they’ve faced that currently has a winning record, the Saints, beat them here on their home field.  Both of these teams come off deceiving results last week.  Baltimore beat Cincinnati 23-17 but dominated the game outgaining the Bengals by 250 yards.  Seattle was down 20-6 @ Cleveland and had to claw back to pick up a 32-28 win and were aided by 4 Browns turnovers (just 1 for Seattle).  The Ravens lead the NFL in total offense averaging 450 YPG and their YPG differential is an impressive +100 (Seattle’s is +40).  The Ravens also lead the NFL in rushing at 205 YPG and they are playing into a Seattle defense that allows 4.7 YPC (25th in the NFL).  Their balanced attack with QB Jackson mixing in the passing game should keep the Seattle defense that allows 6.0 YPP (25th in the NFL) off balance.  Seattle’s once vaunted home field advantage isn’t so great anymore.  They are just 9-7 SU their last 16 home games and their ATS mark here is 6-11 their last 17 (0-3 ATS this year).  They have not been impressive here this year with a 1-point win over an 0-6 Cincinnati team (Bengals outgained Seattle by 197 yards), a loss to New Orleans, and a 1-point win over the Rams who misses a FG as time expired which would have won the game.  Baltimore, on the other hand, thrives in this role with a 6-0-1 ATS mark as a road underdog.  We give the Ravens a great shot at the win and if not, we’re guessing it comes to the wire so any points are valuable here.

ASA 8* PLAY ON NY Giants -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is a fantastic spot for the Giants.  They have had 10 days to get ready for this game after losing on Thursday night to the Patriots.  They get the face the Cards who are coming off back to back upset wins vs Cincy & Atlanta and now must travel to the east coast.  It’s the Cardinals 2nd trip to the eastern time zone in 3 weeks.  After starting out very well vs TB & Washington, New York’s QB Daniel Jones has struggled the last 2 games but keep in mind those were against two of the best defensive teams in the NFL (Pats & Vikings).  Those 2 teams are top 5 in the NFL in both total defense and YPP defense.  Now with extra time off they get to face an Arizona defense that ranks 30th in defensive efficiency (Football Outsiders), 30th in total defense, and 28th in YPP defense.  Last week Arizona allowed the Falcons to gain 7.0 YPP and a week earlier a BAD Cincinnati offense averaged 6 YPP vs this defense.  Jones also gets two of his top offensive weapons back this week as RB Saquon Barkley returns from injury along with TE Engram.  We look for the NYG offense to play very well on Sunday.  Arizona was outgained last week, had fewer first downs and a 5:00 minute time of possession disadvantage in their 34-33 win over Atlanta.  The Falcons scored late to presumably tie the game but missed the XP and lost by 1.  The Birds are just 2-9 ATS their last 11 trips to the east coast time zone and the situation is not ideal as we mentioned.  We currently have these teams rated almost identical which would mean NYG should be a 3-point home favorite which is where it sits.  However, factoring in the situation and the key players returning on offense for the Giants, we think the line should be higher.  Take the Giants here.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Oakland +5 over Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM T

This is a rough spot for the Packers.  They are on a short week after coming from behind to beat division rival Detroit on Monday night.  It took a last second FG from Mason Crosby to win that game 23-22.  Now off that huge win they must get ready for an AFC team (not as important as division games) who is playing very well and coming off a bye week.  The Raiders are coming off wins @ Indy and vs Chicago in London two weeks ago.  Two solid opponents and Oakland outgained them by a combined 193 yards.  They outrushed those two teams by a whopping 234 yards and now face a Green Bay defense on a short week that allows 4.9 YPC which is good for 25th in the NFL.  Offensively the Packers will have problems with their passing attack on Sunday as most of their key receivers are hurting.  Davante Adams is out, Geronimo Allison didn’t practice all week and is doubtful, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling was out all week until Friday and practiced on that day on a limited basis a may not play.  Those 3 players account for 72% of Green Bay’s receiving yards this year.  The Packers have been looking to add receivers all week and picked up WR Ryan Grant who wasn’t on an NFL roster.  We still feel GB is a bit overvalued as their 5-1 record comes with a negative YPP differential (-0.3 YPP).  That’s actually the same YPP differential as Oakland brings into this game.  The Raiders are rested and confident and we see this as a close game and the points here are very valuable.    

ASA 8* PLAY ON Washington +10.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Plug your nose and play this one.  We’re assuming it looks to most like the Niners are an easy play here and those are many times the most dangerous games.  Over 80% of the wagers are on San Fran and the line originally dropped from -10 to -9.5 which is a pretty significant reverse line movement coming off 10.  The sharps were on Washington here and now that the general public has pushed this game back to 10 and 10.5 late in the week, we’ll jump in on the Skins.  SF is off 2 huge home wins beating Cleveland on Monday night (was big because SF hasn’t been on Monday night often as of late) and then they topped division rival and last year’s NFC Super Bowl participant the LA Rams.  Now they travel to the eastern time zone for the third time already this year, this time as a double digit favorite.  We sense a definite let down for the 49ers here.  As crazy as it may sound, Washington has some momentum coming in after beating Miami on the road last week.  Case Keenum is back at QB and he definitely gives the Skins the best chance to win.  Already this year Washington was +5 at home vs Chicago and +6 here vs Dallas and now they are getting 10+ from San Francisco?  The Niners are also a bit banged up coming in with both CB’s questionable and RB Breida working on a bum ankle and may not play.  San Fran is not used to being in this spot as they have not been a double digit road favorite since 2012.  They are just 5-8 ATS as a double digit road favorite dating way back to 1995.  We have a feeling this one will be much closer than people think. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #372

Washington State is coming in extra hungry for a win off 3 consecutive losses. Last week they led Arizona State on the road late and the Devils picked up a TD with under 1:00 minute remaining to get the 38-34 win. Their game prior to that was a loss @ Utah and a flat spot coming off an embarrassing home loss. Speaking of their most recent home game it was a full month ago and it was an embarrassment as we said with the Cougars blowing a 49-17 lead in a 67-64 loss to UCLA. Now back at home for the first time since blowing that massive lead, you can bet WSU won’t hold back here. No lead is too safe will be their outlook. This is a bad spot for Colorado playing their 2nd of back to back road game after getting destroyed 45-3 @ Oregon last week. It’s not only a bad situation but a terrible match up for the Buffs. The Colorado defense is one of the worst in the nation at defending the pass and WSU QB Anthony Gordon can wing it with the best of them. The Buff defense currently ranks 123rd nationally in total defense (out of 130), 118th in pass efficiency defense, and 124th in passing yards allowed. Those terrible numbers INCLUDE a game vs Air Force who rarely passes and still threw for 155 yards on CU. On Saturday they face a Washington State passing offense that ranks #1 nationally lighting it up for 453 YPG through the air. Their QB Gordon is completing 71% of his passes and has 25 TD’s and just 6 interceptions on the year. The CU defense has allowed 30 or more points in EVERY game this season and they will not stop this Cougar offense that will be on a mission in this game. We expect upper 40’s to 50+ from WSU in this game. The Colorado offense is reeling a bit after scoring only 3 points last week @ Oregon and we don’t expect them to be able to keep up in this game. WSU has dominated the last 2 games in this series (one on the road and one at home) winning 31-7 last year and 28-0 the previous year with a combined yardage edge of +412. These two both have 3-3 record but there is a reason State is favored by almost 2 TD’s. They have a +1.2 YPP margin on the year while Colorado has a -1.1 YPP margin. Washington State is better than their record and CU should not be a .500 team. Lay it in this one.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Rice Owls (-) over UTSA Roadrunners, Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #415

When you see an 0-6 team listed as the favorite on the road it certainly may seem surprising or you may feel it is a mistake. Of course the reality is that the odds makers made the 0-6 Owls the favorite with plenty of good reasoning! One thing we know for sure is that the 2-4 Roadrunners are not a very good football team. They have a win over a non-FBS team (Incarnate Word) and their other win came against a 1-4 UTEP team. The reason that Rice is without a win while the Roadrunners have two victories on the season simply comes down to scheduling. The Owls have faced a much tougher schedule this season. 3 of Rice's 6 losses have come by a single possession. Also, the Owls do have revenge here as the Roadrunners have held the upper hand in their meetings in recent seasons. This is Owls coach Bloomgreen's 2nd season with the team and Rice, downtrodden for so long, is showing improvement even though that has yet to shown up in the win column. With this being an I-10 rivalry game (San Antonio just 3 hours west of Houston on the interstate), this is the ideal spot for the highly motivated Owls to break into the win column. The Roadrunners got destroyed by UAB last week while Rice enters this game off a bye week. The Runners were outgained 492 to 220 in last week's loss to the Blazers. Both teams struggle in terms of offensive efficiency this season but the Roadrunners also are horrible in terms of defensive efficiency and rank 116th in the nation in that category. Look for the Owls to break off some big runs for huge yardage in this one as the UTSA defense continues to struggle with giving up too many big plays. The Rice run defense actually held Texas, La Tech, UAB and Baylor to an average of just 127 rushing yards per game. Of course those teams all have offensive attacks vastly superior to the Roadrunners offense. UTSA struggles to throw the ball too and hasn't even thrown for 100 passing yards in 3 of their 6 games. .As a result, the Roadrunners drop to 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games with another ugly home performance here. Lay the small points with Rice as a small road favorite in early evening action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #397

UNC is in a great spot coming off a bye for this revenge game. It’s a game they’ve been waiting for after losing at home last year 22-19 to the Hokies. It was a game that saw UNC dominate the stat sheet (522 yards to 375) but they watched Va Tech score a TD with 19 seconds remaining to get the come from behind win. We’d argue that UNC is much better this year compared to last season’s team and Va Tech is down from a year ago. There is definitely a reason the 3-3 Tar Heels are favored at the 4-2 Hokies. North Carolina has played the much tougher schedule already facing the likes of South Carolina (win), Clemson (lost by 1), Wake (lost by 6), and Miami FL (win). All 3 of their losses have come down to the wire including their near win over National Champion Clemson – UNC went for 2 and the win late in the game but were unsuccessful. Even with their tough schedule the Heels are outgaining their opponents 425 to 371 and QB Howell has been very good with 15 TD’s and just 3 interceptions. Head coach Mack Brown has this team confident and playing very well. Va Tech, on the other hand, has played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They’ve already played 2 FCS teams and struggled with both. They barely got by Furman earlier in the year and last week they led Rhode Island only 24-17 heading into the 4th quarter. Their other wins came vs Miami FL but the Hokies were outgained by 230 yards in the game and benefited from 5 Cane interceptions and Old Dominion who currently has 1 win on the year. Despite their 4 wins and their ultra easy schedule, VT is dead even yardage wise on the year averaging 380 YPG and allowing 380 YPG. If you subtract their games vs FCS opponents VT is averaging 360 YPG on 5.1 YPP while allowing 435 YPG on 6.0 YPP. Tech is 0-3 ATS at home this year and their once vaunted home field advantage has gone by the wayside as of late as they have won only 3 of their last 8 home games vs FBS opponents dating back to the start of last season. They also continue to be overvalued covering only 4 of their last 15 games overall. UNC the much better team and rested. We’ll lay it.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) over LSU Tigers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #380

This is simply a case of too many points. LSU is off a huge win versus Florida last week and also has a big game with Auburn on deck. That makes this a very tough spot here for the Tigers as they take on a Mississippi State team that will want to make the most of this opportunity on its home field. The Bulldogs have covered 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. Keep in mind that the Tigers were actually down by a TD in the 3rd quarter of their win over the Gators last week. As for the Bulldogs, they are off a loss at Tennessee last week in a game in which Mississippi State was favored by a touchdown. Clearly the Bulldogs got caught looking ahead to this week's big game and, as a result, they paid the price (outright upset loss as a favorite). Last year's match-up with LSU was the first for Mississippi State with Moorhead as head coach. Suffice to say, neither here nor the players have forgotten it either as the Bulldogs were held to just 3 points in that defeat! They've been looking forward to this opportunity to atone for that performance. Before their low-scoring loss to the Volunteers last week, the Bulldogs had not been held below 23 points in any of their first 5 games this season. The Mississippi State offense bounces back this week and takes advantage of catching LSU is what is a classic flat spot for the Tigers. The Bulldogs are highly unlikely to get the outright upset here but, per our computer math model, they will keep the margin in this game much closer than what the betting market is forecasting. Grab the big points with Mississippi State as a big home dog in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) over Cincinnati Bearcats, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #339

The Bearcats won big at Houston last week but they were actually outgained by the Cougars in that game. Certainly Cincinnati deserves credit for the win but the fact is they had two very short TD drives and also the defense scored a TD in that game. As a result, this week the markets have Cincinnati over-valued in this spot and we won't hesitate to take advantage with the hungry underdog, Tulsa, in this one. The road team has covered each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. The Golden Hurricane enter this game off an ugly loss to Navy last week but that was not unexpected. It was a bad spot for Tulsa after a gut-wrenching triple-overtime loss to SMU. Also, the Golden Hurricane faced the unique option attack of the Midshipmen last week. Again, not a good match-up nor a good situation for Tulsa. As a result, the markets have heavily undervalued the Golden Hurricane here because of the recent results. The fact is that, last week notwithstanding, the Tulsa defense had shown improvement this season. The Golden Hurricane allowed an average of just 27 points in regulation time of their first 5 games this season. The Bearcats are being asked to cover 17 points here and that is a big ask when consideration is given to the above. The Golden Hurricane are 16-8 ATS the last 24 times they have been a road dog. Cincinnati is averaging only 28.7 points per game at home this season. The big road dog keeps this one close as Bearcats get caught already thinking about their upcoming bye week. Grab the big points with Tulsa on the road in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* UCLA Bruins (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #307

The Bruins and Cardinal both enter this game off a bye.  However, prior to their bye UCLA lost to Oregon State while Stanford had huge win (over Washington) and are off their best game of the season.  Teams often end up flat after a game like that and that is the reason the sharp money is on the Bruins in this game.  Consider that Stanford has won 11 in a row SU in this series and yet the line (Cardinal as a favorite) has been moving down all week long.  UCLA certainly has had issues this season (including with their pass defense) but this situation is ripe for an upset and the Bruins have actually played better on the road than at home this season.  Per our computer math model, that trend continues here as UCLA improves to 3-0 ATS last 3 road games.  Stanford is 0-5 ATS the last 5 times the Cardinal has been a home favorite of 3.5 points or less.  That makes this a double perfect ATS spot to fade Stanford and play the Bruins as they travel well for a 3rd straight time at the betting window!  Grab the points with UCLA as a small road underdog in evening action Thursday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +4 over Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

Green Bay is off a big win @ Dallas but looking at the stats they were quite fortunate.  The Cowboys outgained GB by 228 yards and averaged a whopping 8.2 YPP vs the Packer defense.  Green Bay’s offense only averaged 5.2 YPP in the game.  Dallas had 3 big turnovers which contributed to the Packer win.  Green Bay is not quite as good as their 4-1 record might indicates as they are getting outgained by -40 YPG and -0.6 YPP.  The defense looked great early but they’ve definitely come back to earth.  After completely shutting down a bad Chicago offense in their season opener, the GB defense has allowed an average of 6.2 YPP over their last 4 games.  Detroit has a situational advantage here coming off a bye.  They have also beaten Green Bay 4 straight times including 2 wins here at Lambeau which gives them confidence coming in.  The Lions have played a tough schedule beating the Chargers and Eagles.  They blew a big lead @ Arizona to open the season in a game that ended in a tie and their only loss was vs the Chiefs in a game Detroit led with under 1:00 minute remaining.  The Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of their last 4 meetings with Green Bay and with the Packer defense not as good as people are making them out to be, Detroit could get there again.  All of Detroit’s games this year have been decided by 4 points or less and we see another close one here.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams -3 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

We love this spot for the Rams.  They have had a full 10 days to get ready for this one after their 30-29 road loss @ Seattle last Thursday.  It was their 2nd of back to back losses after they lost to Tampa the previous Sunday.  Now you have the team that was in last year’s Super Bowl sitting at 3-2 in a must win spot at home.  The Niners, on the other hand, come in on a short week after beating Cleveland Monday night.  So San Francisco is undefeated at 4-0 but they come into this game overvalued in our opinion.  The four teams they’ve beaten are all currently under .500 and they have a combined record of just 5-15.  Last year when these teams met in LA the Rams were -10.5 favorites and now they are laying only a FG?  We realize Niner QB Garoppolo didn’t play in that game and SF looks improved but should this line really be a full 7.5 points off from last season?  The value and situation absolutely favor LA here.  In the Sean McVay era, the Rams have lost back to back games only twice and the rebounded with win and cover their next game both times.  Historically NFL home favorites off Thursday night games (extra prep time) facing teams off Monday night games (short week) have covered 9 of 12 times.  San Fran’s defense has looked good this year but let’s keep in mind that all of their opponents have an offense ranked 18th or lower (offensive efficiency via Football Outsiders) and 3 of those teams rank 25th or lower.  The QB’s they’ve faced this year are Mason Rudolph, Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield, and Jameis Winston.  This week they take a step up facing Jared Goff.  Now to the LA defense.  After holding their first 3 opponents to 49 total points, the LA defense wasn’t great the last 2 weeks including last week @ Seattle where they allowed 30 points.  However, the Seattle offense ranks 3rd in the NFL in efficiency which is far better than any offense SF has faced.  They’ve already faced Russell Wilson, Cam Newton when he was healthy, and Drew Brees who are all far better than an QB the Niners have faced.  We expect the Rams defense, which is very talented to play much better at home after two somewhat embarrassing performances.  We also look for the offense to play well vs a 49er defense with solid stats because they’ve played weak offenses.  This is a much, much bigger game for the experienced Rams and we like them to win by more than a FG. 

ASA 8* PLAY ON Jacksonville -1.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

There is a reason the team with a 2-3 record is favored over the team with the 4-1 record.   Most will look at that an automatically bet the “better” team as an underdog.  We’re not so sure the Saints are the better team right now.  As of this writing well over 60% of the total tickets are on New Orleans, however over 70% of the money has come in on Jacksonville.  Sharp money is coming in on the Jags and we definitely agree with that.  Despite their losing record, Jacksonville outgains their opponents by 6 YPG and +0.2 YPP.  New Orleans, on the other hand, has just one loss but is getting outgained on the year by -15 YPG and -0.4 YPP.  The Saints are 3-0 with Teddy Bridgewater under center but we feel they’ve been very fortunate.  His first start @ Seattle the Saints were outgained by 250 yards but still won.  Then they played host to Dallas and won 12-10 with the Cowboys having 3 turnovers in the game – Saints were +2 in TO margin in the game.  Then last week they beat TB and the Bucs were off a huge win @ LA Rams and on the road for the 2nd straight week which was a very good situation for New Orleans.  Their 4 wins this year have come by a total of 17 points so they are not dominating anyone.  Now they go on the road vs a team that is better than their record.  In their losses Jacksonville outgained Carolina (in a 7 point loss) and outgained Houston (in a 1 point loss) both on the road.  The only game where they didn’t have a chance to win was their season opener vs KC (lost 40-26) when QB Minshew came in for the first action of his career replacing Nick Foles who was injured in the game.  Underrated vs Overrated here in our opinion and we’ll take the home team.