#326 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Purdue (-) over Wisconsin, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the Boilers. They are playing their final home game and need this win to become bowl eligible (currently a 5-5 record). If they don’t get this game they have to go on the road next week to arch rival Indiana and try to get a win in order to qualify for the post-season. Purdue has been up one week, down the next for a full month now. They throttled Ohio State 49-20 here then followed that up with a stinker @ Michigan State the next week. They came back home after that loss and beat a very good Iowa team and then got creamed @ Minnesota. Now back at home after that embarrassing performance (their worst of the season) we would look for a very good game out of the Boilers. This team has beaten 3 straight ranked teams at home (BC, Ohio State, and Iowa) and now they face a Wisconsin team that is absolutely trending downward. The Badgers are already bowl eligible, they are coming off a huge game @ Penn State (a 22-10 loss), and they have their biggest rivalry game vs Minnesota next Saturday. We expect back up QB Jack Coan to be under center again this week although that has not been finalized and probably won’t be until gametime. Starter Alex Hornibrook is in concussion protocol and didn’t play last Saturday after suffering his 2nd concussion in 3 weeks vs Rutgers. We anticipate the UW coaching staff to be ultra conservative with Hornibrook moving forward due to his 2 concussions and the fact they are bowl eligible but out of the Big Ten West race. If either play, we still like Purdue. Coan simply doesn’t have enough experience and they have been very conservative offensively because of that. Even down 12 in the fourth quarter last week the play calling was not wide open to say the least. In the two games that Coan has started the Badgers have scored 17 & 10 points. He has thrown for 158 yards and 60 yards in those two games. That makes the offense one-dimensional and the Purdue defense will load the box to stop the run. It’s a Purdue defense that was gashed on the ground by Minnesota last week in their letdown spot but had been playing quite well vs the run leading into that game. If you take out last week’s debacle @ Minnesota, the Boilermaker rush defense is allowing 132 YPG in league play which would be good for 4th best. The weak spot of Purdue’s defense is their pass defense allowing 278 YPG however Wisconsin is not a team that will be able to take advantage of that. The Badger defense is WAY down compared to previous years. They are very young on the back end and their top run stuffer, Olive Sagapolo, is out. After allowing less than 100 YPG rushing in each of the last 3 season, the Badger stop unit is giving up 175 YPG on the ground this season. Purdue’s offense is balanced and potent and they put points on the board (4th in the Big Ten averaging 32 PPG – conference games). They look even more impressive when playing at home as they’ve scored 37, 30, 49, and 38 points their last 4 at Ross Ade Stadium. The Wisconsin defense isn’t playing well enough to stop Purdue and their offense isn’t playing well enough to keep up. Add in the motivation factors discussed above and Purdue rolls in this one.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Seattle -3 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

This is a REALLY tough spot for the Packers.  It’s their third road game in the last four week and long travel on a short week.  Not only have they been on the road a lot as of late, it’s been long travel.  They went to the west coast vs Rams, then east coast vs Patriots the next week, then home vs Miami, how west coast against on a short week.  That is as tough a schedule as you could map out.  Seattle is at home where they are playing just their 4th game this season.  They are 1-2 here at home but their losses were both close vs Rams and Chargers, two of the best teams in the NFL.  Seattle played toe to toe with the Rams on the road last week losing 36-31.  Seattle ran for 273 yards vs the Rams and LOST!  Speaking of that we expect Seattle to dominate the rushing game tonight as they lead the league in rushing at 152 YPG while GB allows 121 YPG (22nd in NFL).  That should open things up for Russell Wilson and the passing game.  Wilson has had a fantastic year completing 66% of his passes for an average of 7.96 yards per pass and 21 TD’s.  It could be argued Wilson is having a better year than Aaron Rodgers who’s completing just 60% of his passes for 7.32 yards per pass and 17 TD’s.  On the road, where GB is 0-4, Rodgers has completed under 60% of his passes with a QB rating of 98 (Wilson has rating of 110 this season).  Because of the short week travel situation, road teams can struggle on Thursday nights.  They are just 2-8 SU this year.  GB is in an even more drastic travel spot because of previous weeks.  Seattle has a solid defense and should be able to move the ball very well as discussed above.  The Pack will hang around for awhile but we like Seattle to wear them down and win this one by a TD or more. 

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Loyola Chicago -16 over Niagara, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET

Great spot here for Loyola.  The Ramblers, as you probably remember, made a great run to the final 4 last season.  They finished the season 32-6 and they return 4 of their top 6 players from that team, including PG Clayton Custer who was the talk of the tourney last year.  In their season opener they crushed UMKC 76-45.  That UMKC team was rated 262nd in the Ken Pom efficiency ratings at the time of the game.  Tonight’s opponent, Niagara is rated 253rd so very similar teams as far as we are concerned.  What makes this a great spot it Loyola played very poorly in their 2nd game of the season and they were upset 60-58 by Furman.  The Ramblers blew a 13 point second half lead and they were just 3 of 20 from deep (15%) in that tight loss.  You can expect them to come out with some fire tonight as they’ve had 5 full days to let that loss stew.  This is a team that has a shut down defense allowing opponents to shoot just 34% and just 52 PPG after 2 games.  It isn’t a fluke as this team gave up just 62 PPG last season.  Niagara is playing just their 2nd game of the season tonight which comes after they upset St Bonnies at home 80-72 just 2 nights ago (Monday).  The Purple Eagles shot just 43% and allowed 47% in that game but benefitted 19 made FT’s to just 2 for St Bonnies (+17 at the FT line).  We look for them to struggle from the field again tonight but they an advantage at the stripe vs a Loyola team that doesn’t foul much.  Take Loyola Chicago.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Seattle +10 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Rams continue to be overvalued in our opinion.  They are coming off a loss @ New Orleans last week and laying a huge number here vs a solid Seattle team.  The Rams have played back to back huge games nearly losing at home to Green Bay two weeks ago (29-27 win) and then losing 45-35 @ New Orleans last week.  On top of coming off back to back emotional games, this LA team is playing for the 10th consecutive week.  They have not yet had a bye.  Seattle had a bye two weeks ago so they are not doubt the fresher team.  LA has 8 wins but only 3 of those have come by 12 points or more and those were against 3 of the worst teams in the NFL (Arizona, Oakland, and San Francisco).  This number sits right around 10 points and only one of the Rams last five wins have come by more than 10.  These two already faced off and Seattle took them to the wire losing 33-31.  The Seahawks rushed for 190 yards in that game and we have no doubt they’ll be able to take advantage again of a tired LA defense that allows 4.7 YPC (24th in the NFL).  Rams have NEVER been favored by 10 or more vs Seahawks – Rams have only been favored by a TD or more twice vs Seattle (-7 & -8.5) and Seattle covered both.  This is the largest dog role of Russell Wilson’s career and Seattle has been great in this role with a 27-11-2 ATS record their last 40 as a dog.  The Seahawks are a solid defense (7th in the NFL), off a loss (25-17 to Chargers), playing a team they already nearly beat.  Too many points here as we side with Seattle.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -10 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

This is an absolute must win for the Packers.  They now sit with a 3-4-1 record after losses @ Rams and @ Patriots.  They take the road again the next two weeks going to Seattle and Minnesota so a loss here might just end their playoff hopes.  The last two weeks Green Bay played quite well on the road vs two of the best teams & best offenses in the NFL.  They lost @ Rams 29-27 and @ Pats 31-17.  The New England game was closer than the final as GB actually had the ball deep in Patriot territory with the game tied at 17-17 when an Aaron Jones fumble changed the entire game.  Now after facing two of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, we look for the Packer defense to play much better against an anemic Miami offense.  The Fins rank 28th in the NFL in total offense averaging only 315 YPG.  Last week in their 13-6 win at home vs the Jets, the Dolphins tallied only 168 TOTAL yards and just 7 first downs.  They did not score an offensive TD.  With journeyman back up Brock Osweiler still under center we think they’ll struggle again this week vs a Packer defense that is under rated in our opinion.  The rank middle of the pack in most key categories which is better than most would think.  Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in pass defense, sack percentage, and sacks per game.  Prior to last week’s game vs the hapless Jets offense, this Dolphin defense had allowed 38, 27, 28, 32, and 42 points their previous 5 games.  The Fins are 5-4 but have a negative point differential and have been outgained 7 of their last 8 games.  All of Miami’s wins have come by a single score while their losses have come by 10, 11, 19, and 31 points.  Miami has been a terrible road team winning just 1 of their last 9 road games with losses coming by 40, 31, 24, 19, 18, 16, 10, and 8 points.  The high temp in Green Bay Sunday will be in the low 30’s which is not ideal for a warm weather team.  We think the Packers roll over Miami on Sunday winning by 2+ TD’s. 

ASA 8* PLAY ON Oakland +10.5 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Raiders are coming off an embarrassing performance in their most recent game losing 34-3 to San Francisco.  It was easily their worst game of the season.  That game was on Thursday so they’ve had 10 days to recoup and we expect a solid effort on Sunday vs an AFC West rival.  We really like the line value here.  These two met already this year and the Chargers were favored by 5 at home in that game (a 26-10 Charger win).  Now they are laying double digits on the road!  This is a rarity as the Bolts have been a double digit favorite @ Oakland only ONCE since 1990 and that was a Raider cover.   LA is off a huge road win @ Seattle and they have a big home game on deck vs rival Denver.  Now we realize this is a division game but it’s a team they’ve already beaten and LA might be a bit flat here.  Raiders have covered the last 4 as a home dog vs Chargers.  Double digit road favorites are 3-0 ATS in the NFL this year (Bears @ Bills / Rams @ Niners / Pats @ Bills) – however long term double digit road favorites are 73-102-1 ATS (41%).  We’ve got a feeling this one will be close.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +7.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH

Bears won @ hapless Buffalo last week 41-9 and a simple glance at the score did not tell the whole story.  Chicago had 190 TOTAL yards!  That’s it.  They scored 41 points with less than 200 yards of total offense.  Two defensive TD’s by Chicago in that game and 4 Buffalo turnovers made the difference.  The Bills actually outgained Chicago by 75 yards.  Detroit comes in a bit desperate after losing 24-9 @ Minnesota last week.  The Vikings were extra motivated in that one after outplaying the Saints on the stat sheet a week earlier but still losing at home.  The Detroit defense played well holding Minnesota to just 285 total yards and a defensive TD by the Vikes made this one look worse than it was.  This has been a tight series with 10 of the last 12 meetings decided by single digits.  The Lions have actually won 9 of the last 10 meetings and this is the first time Chicago has been favored in this series since 2012.  Detroit is 3-5 on the season however their 3 wins (Packers, Patriots, Dolphins) have all come against teams that beat Chicago this year.  On the flip side the Bears are 5-3 but 4 of their wins have come against the lower end of the NFL (Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets, Tampa).  Their lone solid win was @ home vs Seattle but that was way back in mid September.  Detroit was +4.5 @ Minnesota last week and now they’re getting a full TD @ Chicago?  Matt Stafford is getting a full TD from Mitch Trubisky?  We’ll take it.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State (+) over Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #215

Notre Dame QB Ian Book is now listed as OUT for this match-up. This is a BIG loss for the Fighting Irish as he was the starter over Brandon Winbush for good reason! The fact is that Winbush has great running ability but he struggles as a passer and is known for making costly mistakes. That sets this one up very well for a big play on the large underdog. Florida State has a solid rushing defense and has allowed just 2.6 yards per game and 102.6 yards per game on the ground their last 6 games! That said, Notre Dame's offense could really struggle to move the ball in this game. The Seminoles have, of course, had a very disappointing season but that makes this a fantastic opportunity for them that will bring out the best in a roster that is still loaded with plenty of talent. Florida State still needs two more wins for bowl eligibility and this match-up at Notre Dame is just one of three remaining games. While an outright upset may be asking a lot, the Seminoles are absolutely relishing the idea of a chance to end the unbeaten season that Notre Dame has enjoyed to this point. These teams, in their recent meetings, have a knack for playing tight games decided by a single score and that is what our math model is forecasting for this game as well. Florida State has won the last 3 meetings. Although FSU is off an ugly loss at NC State, the Noles actually won the yardage battle in that game so the final score was deceiving. Notre Dame is 1-8 ATS in home games where they are favored by more than 7 points! This certainly has not been a good role for them and the Fighting Irish are already 0-3 in that role this season as they did not come anywhere close to covering versus Ball State, Vanderbilt, and Pittsburgh in this role this season! The Seminoles are 9-2 ATS (and 11-1 SU) in their last dozen non-conference games! Notre Dame is 1-7 ATS in November games the past two seasons! We expect those late season struggles at the betting window to continue here for the Fighting Irish. Grab the points with Florida State as an undervalued big road underdog Saturday evening.

ASA 9* PLAY ON Michigan State (+) over Ohio State, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #220 - We obviously follow the Big Ten as close as anyone and something is definitely off with this OSU team. We’ve heard rumblings that there are cohesion problems in the locker room and it’s showing up on the field. This team is nowhere near as good as recent OSU teams and their 8-1 record is masking some problems. Three weeks ago the Buckeyes were blasted by 29 points @ Purdue. They had a bye coming off that loss leading into last week’s home game vs Nebraska and if they were ever going to bounce back and destroy someone it was last week. They didn’t. In fact a 2-win Nebraska team actually led at half and took OSU to the wire at the Horseshoe. While they did run the ball pretty well against a terrible Husker defense the Buckeyes have had trouble running the ball for most of the season. They will continue those struggles again this week versus a Michigan State defense that ranks #1 nationally allowing just 77 YPG on the ground. It’s been no better on the defensive side of the ball for the Bucks. They are allowing 402 YPG this season which is a full 100 yards worse than a year ago. They have allowed 26 points or more 6 times already this year. Last year they allowed 26+ only 3 times all season. MSU got starting QB Lewerke back off an injury in last week’s 24-3 win @ Maryland. They are playing very well winning 3 of their last 4 including wins over Penn State & Purdue. Their lone loss over the last month was a 21-7 setback vs Michigan which doesn’t look all that bad based on how the Wolverines are destroying everyone else. The host has a big edge defensively and their offense has started to look much better over the last month. Last week they ran for 269 yards vs Maryland and if they can run the ball here and take some pressure off Lewerke their offense will do very well here vs a struggling OSU defense that has allowed 80 point and almost 1,000 yards in their last 2 games alone. The underdog has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and we’ll call for the Spartans to win this game outright at home.

ASA 9* PLAY ON Florida (-) over South Carolina, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #194 - After 4 straight wins in SEC action, Florida has now last back to back games. Not only is this week's game versus South Carolina a revenge game for the Gators, it is also their final SEC game of the season. In other words, there is little doubt that Florida is looking to come out strong here after losing their annual showdown with Georgia and then falling short versus Missouri last week. Gators head coach Dan Mullen was previously at Mississippi State from 2010 to 2017. When the Bulldogs entered a game off 2 or more consecutive SU losses, Mullen coached them to an 11-4 SU record and 10-4 ATS! In other words, look for Mullen to have his team ready to respond here! The Gamecocks enters this game off an upset win. Coincidentally, that upset win was at Mullen's old employer in Mississippi State. Though South Carolina's offense impressed, the Gamecocks were outgained by over 100 yards as their defense struggled badly. Also, this is coach Will Muschamp's third season with the Gamecocks. This is the first time this season they've won back to back games and, in Muschamp's tenure at South Carolina, when the Gamecocks are on a winning streak of 2 or more games and on the road, they've lost both times and each defeat came by a margin of at least 13 points. South Carolina is also a long-term 2-11 ATS in road games with a total set in a range of 52.5 and 56 points. Per all of the above, you can see why we’re calling for the Gators to win this one by double digits in a home blowout.

ASA 9* PLAY ON Navy (+) over Central Florida, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #135 - The Knights entered last week in a battle with two teams in the AAC East Division. Those two teams were Temple and Cincinnati. With that being said, this is a classic trap game this week for UCF. The Knights defeated Temple last week but were out-gained in the game plus allowed a ridiculous 670 yards. That was a key win for Central Florida and now next week's game is even bigger as they host Cincinnati! The point is that Navy (with a 2-7 record) is unlikely to have the full attention of the Knights here and that could certainly prove to be dangerous. The Midshipmen are a long-term 16-4 ATS as a road dog of 21.5 points or more. This has plenty to do with their style of play as it makes it difficult for teams to truly blow them out. Navy's offense is a ground-based attack and teams that run the ball well are able to control the clock in games and also keep the ball out of the opponents hands. That is the game plan again here of course and, though UCF is clearly the better team, the Knights are also clearly in a bad scheduling spot and will have a lot of trouble getting this margin above the two TD mark. Despite the large difference in records between these teams they are statistically equal except for the Knights passing attack on offense. That is an edge UCF has but it is not enough of an edge for this type of overlay on a game and this is particularly true when one considers that Navy has played the tougher schedule this season too! Despite last week's ugly loss at Cincinnati, the Midshipmen are still an incredible 13-4 ATS the last 17 times they have faced a team with a winning percentage above .800 that is off a SU win. Of course that system fits again here for Navy this week against undefeated UCF. Though the Knights have extra rest here, Central Florida is actually a poor 3-6 ATS when playing with 8 days of rest between games and the look ahead factor here is a huge one for the Knights. We’ll call for the Midshipmen to stay well within the big number in this one.

ASA 9* PLAY ON Boise State (+) over Fresno State, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - It’s not often we get a chance to take Boise at home as an underdog. In fact, the last time the Broncos were getting points at home was 17 years ago back in 2001. That’s a span of 111 straight home games as a favorite until tonight. This is a team that has the best home field advantage in America. Since September of 2001 the Broncos have a 105-6 record at home! Fresno has won and covered 7 in a row and now they come in overvalued. The Bulldog defense has phenomenal numbers allowing just 12 PPG. While they are good, they aren’t that good. That’s because they haven’t played a single offense ranked in the top 40 in total offense this season! Zero. The three best offenses they’ve played (Minnesota, Hawaii, and Toledo) have all put up 20 or more on this defense. Boise will be the best offense they’ve faced this season by far coming in ranked 20th in total offense averaging 468 YPG on 6.3 YPP. Boise’s QB Rypien has been in many big games in his successful career as he has thrown for almost 13,000 yards and 84 TD’s. We’ll take him at home in a game of this magnitude. FSU’s offensive stats sit in a similar situation. They rank 43rd nationally in total offense however they should be better than that based on the defenses they have faced this season. They’ve only played one team ranked higher than 76th in total defense and 5 of their 9 opponents rank 100th or lower in total defense. This Boise team will be easily the best team Fresno has faced this year. The Bulldogs have not played a close game since their 21-14 loss @ Minnesota and the Gophs have shown they are one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. How will they react in a tight game which this one is destined to be? Not as well as the home team that expect to win every game at home. Boise was favored by 6.5 @ Fresno last year. They were also favored by 10 in the 2nd meeting of the year which was the MWC Championship game. Now they are getting points at home? Bad line in our mind and we like Boise to pull the upset on Friday night.

Play on: #708 Golden State Warriors -5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET – Yes, we love and respect what the Bucks have done this year and feel they are a legitimate contender in the East BUT only Boston (because of their depth) has the slightest chance to beat Golden State this year in the Finals. Milwaukee has gotten off to a great start but recently have lost their last two road games at Boston and at Portland.  They had played a pretty soft schedule prior to that with road wins over Charlotte and Minnesota. Golden State is well, Golden State and this is a statement game for them at home against the upstart Bucks and Giannis. The Warriors are incredibly deep and won’t miss a beat without Draymond Green tonight. GST has the 2nd best home differential in the NBA this year at +15.5PPG which is slightly higher than their last four year average of +13.4PPG. Let’s consider these numbers. The Warriors were favored by -11.5 and -12.5 in two home games of the Finals last year against the Cavs. Last regular season they were favored by -4 points against this same Bucks team and were resting Curry and Thompson! In regular season games last season against the three other best teams in the East the Warriors were 11-point chalks against Boston, -12.5 versus Toronto and -13.5 against Philly. The value on this is just too good to pass up. Play the Warriors who are 11-4 ATS at home when favored by 6 or less points since 2014. 

ASA PLAY ON 9* Toledo Rockets (+) over Northern Illinois Huskies, Wednesday at 8 PM ET: Game #105

When Toledo is a road dog of less than 6 points in a conference game and facing a team with a winning record, they've gone 10-1 ATS their last 11. The most recent occurrence was at Western Michigan two weeks ago. The Rockets were very close to the point-spread range they are in for this game and Toledo beat the Broncos 51-24. Northern Illinois is 2-7 ATS their last 9 home games when facing a team with a winning percentage of .401 or greater. The Huskies are off a big win last week at Akron but previous to that game Northern Illinois was averaging just 17 points per game this season. The Huskies do have a very strong defense but their offense has struggled for nearly the entire season and ranks as one of the worst in the nation. This will spell trouble as they try to match scores with a Rockets offense that is certainly a strength. Toledo has been on a roll in recent games with back to back wins and averaging 48 points per game game. Look for QB Eli Peters, filling in for the injured Mitchell Guadagni, to continue to get the job done for the Rockets as he has been impressive thus far. Per the above situational ATS edges, this is a 17-3 (85%) spot in favor of Toledo. We'll grab the undervalued road dog in this Wednesday evening match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Kent State Golden Flashes (+) over Buffalo Bulls, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #101

We were waiting on the weather report for this one and now feel very comfortable with grabbing the big points in this one. This game is being played in upstate New York in Amherst which is just slightly north of Buffalo. Of course Buffalo is known for bad weather from time to time and, in this case, strong winds are whipping up right off the shores of Lake Erie and into the Buffalo area. A high wind warning has been issued and continues into the overnight hours. The point is that there is not expected to be any significant letup by the time this game kicks off at 7:30 ET. In fact, the winds may be at their peak at that time. The reason this is so significant is that it is hard for a team to run up the score when a teams passing game and kicking game is limited due to winds. The Bulls are the better team as you can tell from the huge line here but they're going to be forced to rely on their ground game and try to grind out a win. Also, Kent State has impressed us in terms of playing hard for their new coach this season. The Golden Flashes will not lay down here and they will play hard for the full sixty minutes. As a result of the above (including the weather element), this game is likely to be much closer than many expect. We'll grab the undervalued big road dog in this Tuesday early evening match-up.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver (pick-em) over Houston, Sunday at 4:00 PMET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Hmmm?  We have a Houston team that has won 5 straight games vs a Denver team that has lost 4 of their last 5 yet the Broncos are favored.  Denver is coming off a 30-23 loss last week @ KC but they outplayed the red hot Chiefs in that game.  The Broncos outgained the Chiefs by 70+ yards in the game and outrushed them 189 to 49.  They’ve played KC to the wire twice this year losing by 4 and 7 points.  Denver is 3-5 on the year but 4 of those losses came to KC (twice), LA Rams, and @ Baltimore.  The Broncos are much better than their record and are now backed into a corner in a must win spot at home.  Houston is on a nice run but their wins have come against Miami, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Dallas and Indy with two of those games going to OT.   The home team should  have a big edge in the trenches here as Houston’s offensive line rates as one of the worst in the NFL (23rd in efficiency by Football Outsiders).  They will be facing a Denver defensive front that averages 3 sacks per game (5th in the NFL) with a sack percentage of 8% (also 5th in the NFL).  That will be a problem for a banged up Deshaun Watson who’s already been hit more than any other QB in the league.  By contrast, Denver’s offensive line ranks 4th in the NFL in efficiency and #1 in the league in run blocking.  That’s a good reason why the Broncos average 134 YPG on the ground.  The Broncos have played the MUCH tougher schedule to date (6th most difficult compared to Houston’s 32nd ranked strength of schedule) and despite their records (Denver is 3-5 & Houston is 5-3) we feel the Broncos are the better team, in a must win spot, and at home.  Football Outsiders efficiency ratings agree with us as they have Denver ranked as the 7th best team in the NFL and Houston ranked 12th.  Lay the small number with Denver. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Tampa Bay +7 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH

We expect Tampa to play much better now that they’ve decided on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting QB.  Why they went away from him when Jameis Winston came back in a mystery to us.  Fitzpatrick has his teammates trust and confidence and he just happens to be the highest rated QB in the league at 119.3.  Yes higher than Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Goff.  Now we’re not saying Fitzpatrick is better than those signal callers but he is having a very good season.  Last week he entered the game late @ Cincinnati late in the 3rd quarter with his team down 34-16.  He rallied the Bucs to a 34-34 tie but lost on a last second FG.  The team looked rejuvenated with him under center and we expect them to play very well this weekend.   Carolina is off a 36-21 home win over Baltimore.  They played very well but were an underdog in that game.  Now they are laying nearly a full TD and we simply don’t trust Cam Newton in this role.  This has been a tightly contested series with 3 of the last 4 meetings decided by a FG or less.  The dog has covered 4 straight in this NFC South battle and 3 of Tampa’s 4 losses have come by 5 points or fewer.  The Bucs are better than their 3-4 record as they are actually outgaining their opponents by 52 YPG (Carolina is just +15 YPG on the season).  With Fitzpatrick back at the helm, this team will score points.  We don’t see the Panthers being able to pull away in this game and we give the Bucs a solid shot at the upset.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Missouri Tigers (+) over Florida Gators, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #337

Missouri's overall 4-4 record on the season, on the surface if you will, does not impress. However, two of their losses have come by 2 points and 1 point. This Tigers team is very close to being a 6-2 team and certainly holds the edge in terms of overall offensive productivity when comparing Missouri with Florida. Also, the Gators may not have a lot left in the tank after going toe to toe with Georgia last week. The Bulldogs have a way of pounding teams that leaves them battered and bruised the next week and Florida was outgained by nearly 150 yards in that 19 point loss last week. The Gators are 1-6 ATS their last 7 in their game following Georgia. Once again, look for Florida (very disappointed by last week's loss) to fall flat here the week after facing the Bulldogs. The Tigers are fired up after a tight one point loss to Kentucky that was a controversial finish. Missouri allowed just 15 points in that loss and here's an interesting stat for you: the Tigers are 7-0 SU the last 7 times they've been off a game where they held their opponent to 21 points or less. Look for that stat to hold true again here this week as there is most definitely strong potential for a road upset here so we're grabbing the points in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:45 PM ET: Game #406

The Wolverines are out for revenge in a big way at The Big House Saturday! Heading into last year's match-up in Happy Valley at Penn State, Michigan had rolled to 3 straight wins (and 3-0 ATS) in their last 3 meetings with the Nittany Lions. Then, inexplicably last season, the Wolverines got rolled by 4 TD's in last season's match-up. The set up for this season's rematch is perfect for Michigan. Big Blue is off their bye week and they have lowly Rutgers up next. In other words, full focus and attention is on Penn State here. When you look at points allowed this season the Nittany Lions 22.2 points allowed doesn't look too bad in comparison with Michigan's 14.4 points allowed per game. However, there is a huge difference between the level of play on defense in comparing these two teams. The Wolverines have allowed an average of 220 yards per game on the season! That ranks Michigan as the #1 defense in the nation! As for Penn State, they've allowed an average of 424.4 yards per game their last 5 games. This stretch included losses to Ohio State and Michigan State as well as unimpressive (and somewhat fortunate) wins over Indiana and Iowa. Penn State, simply put, is "on the fade" right now and Michigan is on an entirely different level. The Wolverines have won 7 straight games and they've already begun their "revenge season" as they look to get payback for every single Big Ten loss from last season. The Wolverines already beat Wisconsin and Michigan State by an average margin of 19.5 points per game. Now they get revenge against Penn State and then part four of the "revenge season" beckons them in the regular season finale at Ohio State. As a home favorite in Big Ten games, Michigan is already 3-0 ATS this season. Penn State is an ugly 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and Nittany Lions QB Trace McSorley was roughed up by the Hawkeyes last week and in the 2nd half was wearing a bulky knee brace. He is not going to have any fun this week either, whether 100% or not, as he goes up against the #1 defense in the nation. Look for a home blowout revenge win in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Purdue Boilermakers (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 3:30 ET: Game #324

We really like this spot for the Boilers. Over the last month, we’ve been watching both of these teams very closely. We’ve felt that Iowa was overrated. They had won 3 straight games heading into last week’s loss @ Penn State. Their wins during that stretch came against Minnesota, Indiana, and Maryland. Their game prior to that run they lost by 11 points at home to a Wisconsin team that simply isn’t at the level they’ve been the past few years. Last week they lost @ PSU 30-24. A Nittany Lion team that is also down this year having lost 2 of their prior 3 games with their only win during that stretch coming @ Indiana despite getting outgained by nearly 140 yards. The Hawks were fairly fortunate last week as they scored on 2 safeties and a pick 6. Thus nearly half of their points vs the Lions were scored by the defense. Even with that they still lost. So Iowa has beat up on bad teams and lost to 2 marginal teams over their last 5 games. On top of that, last week’s game was huge for the Hawkeyes. It was a statement type game for them as they went on the road against a national name team hoping to pick up a good win. Off that loss we expect a bit of a letdown from them on the road for the 2nd straight week. Speaking of the road, Iowa has been away from home a lot as of late. This will be their 4th road game in the last 5 weeks. Not ideal for the Hawkeyes. Purdue has been underrated in our mind. We took them a few weeks ago as a big underdog vs Ohio State and the Boilers dominated that game on their way to a 49-20 win. With head coach Jeff Brohm still building the program, it wasn’t a surprise they laid an egg last week @ Michigan State coming off their OSU win. After losing their first 3 games by a combined 9 points, this Purdue team has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss being last week’s clunker @ MSU. The offense has been playing great scoring 30+ points in 5 of their last 6 including topping 40 points 3 times. Now back at home we expect a great game out of the Boilermakers and we’ll lay this small number. Look for a blowout home win for the Boilermakers in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at Noon ET: Game #334

Nebraska enters this game off an easy win versus an FCS team so they actually were able to rest starters in that one after half-time. However, though the Cornhuskers will be somewhat rested here, the Buckeyes are not only fully rested (off bye week) but also very angry after their loss to Purdue two weeks ago. Keep in mind, the Boilermakers have a very potent offense this season and Ohio State found that out first-hand in the loss at Purdue. Though the Boilermakers piled up 539 yards in that game, the Buckeyes actually outgained them! With that said, the 29 points margin of defeat was certainly quite deceiving. In any event, the fact now is that this Ohio State team has had extra time to build up their aggression in terms of a huge response in this game. Keep in mind the Buckeyes defense had allowed an average of just 17 points per game over a 6-game stretch that preceded the loss at Purdue. Also, Ohio State is 4-0 ATS in their 4 meetings with Nebraska that have come since the Cornhuskers moved into the Big Ten. In fact, the last 3 Buckeyes wins over Nebraska have come by an average margin of 42 points per game! Nebraska is allowing 200 rushing yards per game in Big Ten action this season and the Buckeyes are going to respond after a very rare horrible effort on the ground versus Purdue. This is the Buckeyes only home game over a period of 5 weeks so you know they are looking to make the most of it. On the Big Ten road, the Huskers lost games to Michigan and Wisconsin by an average margin of 31.5 points per game and we fully expect this one to be decided in the 30 point range as well! Look for a blowout home win for the deservedly heavy-favorite Buckeyes in this early Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Colorado Buffaloes (+) over Arizona Wildcats, Friday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #319

The Buffaloes have now lost 3 straight after a 5-0 start to the season. While road losses at USC and Washington were not unexpected, the home loss to Oregon State last week certainly was. Colorado actually led that game 31-3 before allowing the Beavers to outscore them 31-3 the rest of the way! Oregon State then won the game in overtime. This type of result (blowing a 28 point lead at home) is going to bring out a huge effort from the Buffaloes here. Consider it "lesson learned" for Colorado and the Buffaloes are now catching the Wildcats at the perfect time to get a road win. Arizona is off a huge upset over Oregon as a home dog of more than a TD! The Wildcats have won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and that includes an upset of the Buffaloes at Boulder last year. That said, now it is payback time and it is Colorado's turn for revenge after the Wildcats got their big revenging win (versus the Ducks) last week. Basically Arizona played the "perfect game" last week and it is often after games like those that teams fall very flat in their next game. As for the Buffaloes, there is no way they'll be flat after last week's result versus the Beavers. In terms of technical support here, there is plenty as the Wildcats are 2-6 ATS when at home and facing a team playing with revenge. Colorado is 9-1 ATS when on the road and playing with revenge. The visitor is also 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these teams! Additionally, the Buffaloes are a perfect 5-0 ATS when off an ATS loss by a double digit margin! We'll grab the undervalued road team in this Friday late night match-up.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Oakland +3 over San Francisco, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

Two 1-win teams go at it on Thursday night in a game that will most likely be a TV dud.  San Fran is coming off a loss @ Arizona in a game they blew a 15-3 fourth quarter lead.  That was a telling loss as Arizona’s offense is atrocious ranking near the bottom of the NFL in most key categories.  The fact they were able to come from behind late vs this 49er defense is bad news.  They “held” the Cards to 18 points which is actually 4 more points than their average so nothing special there.  Leading into that game the Niner defense had allowed 28 or more points in 5 straight.  Oakland is fairly healthy here and should put up decent offensive numbers tonight.  We can’t say the same for San Fran’s offense.  They have been struggling scoring 10, 15, and 18 points in 3 of their last 4 games.  They are facing a bad Oakland defense but we think they struggle again as their QB situation is not ideal.  Starter CJ Beathard is not 100% and may not even play in this game.  He injured his hand last week and as of Tuesday was not even able to grip a football.  He practiced lightly on Wednesday but is 50/50 at best for tonight.  If he goes he will be limited.  If he doesn’t go it will be Nick Mullens at QB and he has never taken a snap in an NFL regular season game.  While Oakland QB Derek Carr has had his problems at times this year, the Raiders have a big edge at QB tonight.  While it’s a road game on Thursday night which usually favors the home team due to travel situation, that won’t be the case tonight as the Raiders make the 12 mile bus trip to San Fran.  The Raiders should be well rested as they had their bye two weeks ago while SF is playing for the 9th consecutive week.  After blowing their lead and the cover last week @ Arizona, the 49ers are now 1-12 ATS their last 13 as a favorite.  We’ll side with the lessor of two evils getting points tonight. 

ASA Play on: #503 LA Clippers + over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET - We like the spot to play on the Clippers here based on line value and matchups. Let's talk numbers first. The Clippers most recent road game saw them +3 at OKC. The Clippers were plus only 3-points at OKC who is nearly identical to the 76ers in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings.  A few games earlier the Clippers were +5.5 (same as tonight's line) in New Orleans who is a contender in the West. Now L.A. is catching that same number against a Sixers team that isn't living up to their preseason hype. L.A. is 12th in offensive efficiency ratings, 8th defensively. Philly is 22nd in OEFF, 10th DEFF. These two teams have similar records at 4-3 (L.A.) and 4-4 (PHI) but yet the Clippers have a positive differential of +5.3PPG while the 76ers are negative at -1PPG. The Clippers have a big capable of slowing Embiid and two defensive guards in Bradley and Beverley to contain Simmons. The Clippers have played the tougher schedule yet have better statistics than a Philly team yet to play up to their expectations. Easy buy sign with L.A. tonight.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Kent State Golden Flashes (+) over Bowling Green Falcons, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #303

Both of these teams are having tough seasons but Bowling Green has already endured a coaching change (have an interim as head coach was fired a couple weeks ago) and certainly the Falcons appear to be the lesser team at this point in the season. While both teams have struggled on defense, the Golden Flashes have allowed 27.3 points per game their last 3 games while Bowling Green has allowed at least 35 points in every game this season. In fact, the Falcons are allowing an average of 47.8 points per game on the year! Bowling Green is 1-6 ATS as a home fave of 3 or less points. Kent State is 4-2 ATS in games played on turf this season and 2 of the Golden Flashes last 3 losses have come by just a single point. While Kent State has been on the verge of victory twice in their three most recent games, the Falcons have been outscored by an average of 22.2 points per game this season and their slimmest margin of defeat has been 7 points. We'll grab the undervalued road team in this Tuesday evening match-up.

ASA 10* PLAY ON San Francisco -1 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR

We thought the Niners might be in trouble when starting QB Garopollo went down.  They’ve actually played pretty well with CJ Beathard at QB.  He’s thrown for over 1,000 yards and 7 TD’s in his 4 starts.  Three of those starts were against the Chargers, Packers, and Rams so a tough schedule to say the least.  They held 4th quarter leads in their games @ Chargers and @ Packers but were unable to hold on vs those prolific offenses.  Beathard’s only other other start was against this Cardinal team.  Arizona upset San Fran 28-18 in that game a few weeks ago but the Niner absolutely dominated the stats.  In that game the 49ers were +227 yards, +23 first downs, and had a 40:00 to 20:00 minute time of possession edge and lost by 10!  That’s because they had 5 turnovers in the game while Arizona had zippo.  San Fran has been waiting for this rematch and we don’t see any way the Cards can keep up offensively.  We anticipate San Francisco putting up big numbers again (this time on the scoreboard as well) vs an Arizona defense that ranks dead last in the NFL vs the run and has allowed 72 points in their last 2 games.  Meanwhile the Cardinal offense has been putrid.  The rank last in the NFL in most key offensive categories and they have only topped 17 points once this entire year.  They have also not gained more than 268 yards in any game this season.  They are getting outgained by an average of 162 YPG on the season.  That’s bad folks.  While San Fran is playing hard and playing pretty well vs top notch competition as of late, the Cardinals seem to be in a bit of disarray.  They fired their offensive coordinator this week and their top DB wants to be traded.  We see things coming apart at the seams a bit for this team.  The Niners are well coached under Kyle Shanahan and his players respect him.  We think they roll into Arizona and pick up an easy in on Sunday.    

ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -7.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH

Situationally this game sets up really well for Pittsburgh.  The Steelers look like they are hitting their stride after struggling early in the season.  They scored 69 combined points their most recent 2 games beating Atlanta & Cincinnati.  They also dominated those games on the stat sheet.  They are coming off a bye and surely are ready to put a beat down on a Cleveland team they tied 21-21 to open the season.  In that game the Steelers were the much better team outgaining the Browns 472 to 327 but SIX turnovers did them in.  Even with a +5 turnover differential in the game, Cleveland wasn’t able to win.  Unlike the Steelers who are off a bye, Cleveland is playing their 2nd of back to back road games.  They are also playing for the 8th consecutive week and FOUR of their previous 7 have gone into overtime meaning they’ve logged the equivalent of almost a full extra game in those 8 weeks.  They look like they are running out of gas to us.  They played at Tampa Bay last week and while they lost in OT, the Bucs dominated the game outgaining Cleveland by 150 yards.  Tampa turned the ball over 4 times to just 1 for Cleveland.  Again, even with the big turnover advantage, the Browns were not able to win the game.  The offense continues to struggle as they’ve topped 21 points only twice the entire season vs Tampa Bay (28th in total defense) and Oakland (26th in total defense).  The Cleveland defense looked good early in the season but as we stated, they look like they are running out of gas allowing 45, 38, and 26 points in 3 of their last 4 games.  Pitt coach Tomlin has been very good as a big favorite with a 21-12 ATS record when laying more than a TD.  The Browns have now lost 24 straight road games and we think this one sets up as a potential Pittsburgh thumping.  Lay it. 

ASA 8* PLAY ON Denver +10 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

These two met just a few weeks ago and Denver led that game 23-13 midway through the 4th quarter.  The Chiefs scored on their final 2 possessions of the game to pick up a 27-23 win.  The Broncos defense is the only team to hold this vaunted KC offense under 30 points and now that they are getting a 2nd look at the Chiefs we have a feeling their defense will play well again.  Denver ran very well on this Chiefs defense in the first meeting (160 yards) and we expect them to again as KC allows 5.2 YPC (30th in the NFL).  The Broncos want to control the ball and shorten the game with their 8th rated rush offense.  That will make it tough for KC to cover this double digit number.  KC is a perfect 7-0 ATS this year and the numbers are now getting pushed too high because of that.  The Chiefs have NEVER been favored by double digits vs their AFC West rival Denver.  Double digit division underdogs have historically been money makers (58% since 2003) and we expect this one to be decided by less than 10 points.  Denver is the play.

ASA 8* PLAY ON NY Giants +1.5 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Many want nothing to do with the 1-6 Giants but we think this is a great spot for them to pick up a win.  New York is off a 23-20 loss @ Atlanta in a game the Giants actually outgained the potent Falcons offense.  In fact, the Giants have outgained their last 3 opponents and are only getting outgained by an average of 7 YPG on the season.  Five of their six losses have come by a TD or less and this team is getting close to picking up a win in our opinion.  We think it comes this Sunday.  Washington is off huge back to back home wins, both of which went to the wire.  They knocked off Carolina & Dallas and the Skins were home underdogs to both.  Now they are favored on the road after those upset wins.  This is only their third road game of the season as they won in the season opener @ Arizona and were destroyed @ New Orleans.  The home team won both games last year and the Redskins are in a spot they are not used to being in.  They have been favored @ NY just TWICE since 1996 and they lost both of those games outright.  Washington has only won 9 of their last 34 games @ the Giants and they are just 11-21-2 ATS in those games.  We’re buying low (Giants) and selling high (Redskins) in this one.  We’ll be in the minority but we like the Giants to get a win here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #180

Oklahoma State is a disappointing 4-3 on the season but they have a chance to put all of that behind them on Saturday night as the face 6th rated Texas in prime time on Saturday night. It’s homecoming and the Cowboys are honoring the great RB Barry Sanders who will be in the house. Okie State used their bye week to get healthy and focus on some of the basics after losing 3 of their last 4 games. We’re told they’ve had two great weeks of practice heading into this game and should be at their best. OSU is off a bad performance @ KSU two weeks ago losing 31-12 as an 8-point favorite. A week before that they lost at home to a very good Iowa State team in a game that went down to the wire. They had plenty of motivation heading into their bye and we expect them to play very well at home Saturday night. Texas is a bit overrated in our opinion. They’re decent but not great. Not a top 10 type team in our opinion. They have played 7 games this season (6-1 record) and 5 of those games have been one score games. The Horns have not played a true road game in nearly a month and have played only 2 all season, losing @ Maryland and winning @ KSU 19-14 scoring on a punt return and a safety in that game. They have also had a week off but we wouldn’t be surprised if the players are a bit full of themselves so to speak after a 6 game winning streak and their high ranking which has been a long time coming for Texas. They have a huge game at home on deck vs West Virginia as well so facing this struggling OSU team might not bring their peak effort. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger will play here but has a bad throwing shoulder so the playbook might be limited for the Horns. UT has covered only once as a favorite this year and they are 1-6 ATS in that role dating back to last season. OSU’s last home win was a shellacking of a very good Boise State game 44-21 back in September. They have struggled since but we have a feeling this is a circle the wagons game for them coming off a bye and expect a supreme effort. This becomes a huge game for their bowl eligibility with 3 of their final 4 games coming on the road. OSU has controlled this series as of late winning 4 of the last 5 so they will have plenty of confidence coming into this one. Take Oklahoma State at home.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford Cardinal (-) over Washington State Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #162

The Cardinal lost last year at Washington State but there is more to this revenge situation than just that. The Cougars went down to Stanford and blasted the Cardinal 42-16 two years ago. That embarrassing home loss is one that deserves payback and this is the perfect spot for it. The Cougars are an amazing 7-0 ATS this season so they are becoming a popular choice with bettors right now. We all know what happens when a team becomes too popular as it is then that the value erodes away. In this case the Cardinal are now down to a 2.5 point choice as of mid-day Friday and this is a Stanford team that is 21-4 SU the last 25 times they've been favored. Also, when the Cardinal are involved in a game where their line range is between +3 and -3, they are 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS. The Cougars are a long-term 2-5 ATS as a road dog of 3 points or less. In games played on grass, which tends to slow down Mike Leach's offense, Washington State is 2-4 ATS with one of the few such covers being the game at Stanford two years ago. Again, payback time. Although Cardinal RB Bryce Love is questionable for this game he certainly has not had a big season and the sum production of the two running backs who have filled in for him when has not been available is very nearly equal to Love's production on the season. In other words, the Love injury status is merely serving to give even more value here as it is also helping to keep this line low. On the season, Stanford has played a tougher schedule and, even with that, the Cardinals are allowing just 20.7 points per game while the Cougars are allowing 23.3 points per game. This is a huge game in the PAC-12 North as both teams have just one loss like Washington does. Next week Stanford is at Washington and so the Cardinal know that they control their own destiny. Fulfilling their immediate goal of finishing at the top of the PAC-12 North begins here with a big revenging home win over a Cougars team that is simply over-rated at this point in time. The only road wins that the Cougars have this season were at Wyoming and Oregon State. Those teams entered this week with a combined record of 3-12 this season. This is the toughest challenge Washington State has had since their road loss at USC and our math model forecast says they are losing on the road again here. Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday evening PAC-12 match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Houston Cougars (-) over South Florida Bulls, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #184

When an opening line makes you scratch your head, you know you're onto something! The point in this exact instance is that the Cougars were as large as a 9 point favorite when lines first came out for this one even though it is South Florida that is undefeated on the season and it is the Bulls that are the ranked team! Of course the underdog has attracted some attention here as a result but this is certainly no "mistake" by the odds maker. The fact is that Houston has faced a tougher schedule in comparison with South Florida and the Bulls continue to be overvalued by the betting markets. That is evident by the fact that USF is on a 1-4 ATS skid. Also note that Houston has won 3 straight meetings with the Bulls plus the Cougars are looking to take advantage of their only home game in a 4-week span while South Florida could be a bit "gassed" as USF is playing their 3rd road game in the past 4 weeks. The Bulls certainly were unimpressive last week as they barely got by one of the worst teams in FBS (Connecticut) and that game was at South Florida! When USF is a dog of more than 5 points and playing with revenge the Bulls are 2-8 ATS their last 10. Look for a home blowout in this Saturday afternoon AAC match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Georgia Bulldogs (-) over Florida Gators, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #167

Both teams are off a bye week entering this week's annual neutral site game between these SEC foes. The difference for these teams is what happened in the prior week. Prior to their bye the Gators won and have now won 5 straight games while the Bulldogs lost and that ended Georgia's 6-game win streak. That means you're going to see a huge effort from Georgia this week. Yes, Florida has revenge from a bad loss to the Bulldogs last year but the difference will again prove to be the ground game. The Bulldogs had a rare "off" performance versus LSU as the Tigers ran all over them. Prior to that game Georgia had allowed an average of just 113 rushing yards per game on the season. Florida entered their win over Vandy (before the bye) having allowed 172.5 rushing yards per game this season. Just like last year, look for the Bulldogs to again win the battle in the trenches. The Gators are on a 3-8 ATS run as an underdog. Georgia is 6-1 ATS in games played on a neutral field and the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS when off a loss in SEC action. Look for a rout win for the favored Bulldogs in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #111

The Yellow Jackets have won each of the last two meetings between these teams and we look for the streak to reach 3-0 on Thursday evening. The underdog has not only covered the last 5, they've actually won the game outright each of the last five meetings. In fact, the underdog has covered in 12 of the last 13 meetings between the Hokies and the Jackets. Both teams are coming off a bye but the concern with Virginia Tech is a suspect defense. The Hokies were fortunate to beat North Carolina prior to their bye week as Virginia Tech allowed over 500 yards in that game and was outgained by nearly 150 yards by a Tar Heels team that is truly not a very good football team this season. Look for Georgia Tech (352 rushing yards per game) to control this one on the ground and that gives the road dog Yellow Jackets the edge in this one. We'll grab the available points as we do expect a road upset in this Thursday early evening match-up.

ASA Play: Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Orlando Magic, 7PM ET - At first glance you might not be sure about laying points with the visitor here but it makes sense. Orlando was 25th in home scoring differential in 2017-18 at -4.6PPG so we're not afraid of laying points with the Blazers on the road here. We like the situation as the Blazers are off an OT loss at home to the Wizards, while the Magic are off a big upset win in Boston. Did the Magic beat the C's or did the Celtics beat themselves? The Celtics shot horrendously from beyond the arc at 22% with 40 3-point attempts. Orlando opened the season with a home win over the Heat but were then blown out on their home court by Charlotte, 88-120. This will be Portland's first road game so they should be focused off that loss and with 2 days rest. The Magic were 25th in offensive efficiency last season and 19th defensively. The Blazers had the 9th best DEFF ratings in the league last season and were 15th offensively. Last year as a -4.5 point favorite the Blazers won by 7 on this same court. At home against the Magic the Blazers won by 5. The Magic struggle to shoot the basketball at just 41.5% on the season which is 27th in the NBA. Portland doesn't have that problem with the dynamic guard duo of McCollum and Lillard. 

ASA play on: Washington Wizards +5 over @Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - This is an interesting number as the Blazers were just -3 points against the Lakers who are essentially even with Washington who is now getting 5-points? The Wizards have lost two games to playoff teams from a year ago, Toronto and Miami,  by a combined 5 total points. Now they go on the road to face a Portland team off TWO huge home wins over the Lakers and Spurs. Washington has the guards in Wall and Beal to match Portland's strength with Lillard and McCollum. The Wiz were 20-21 SU on the road last year with an average differential of -2.1PPG which was slightly below league average. Portland was 28-13 SU at home a year ago with an average differential of +4.6PPG. The visitor covered both meetings last year and based on the line move and money we like the road team again. Play on Washington Wizards.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -2.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

This line is fluctuating between -2.5 points and -3 points but the majority are still at 2.5  Either way we like the Ravens to get it done at home over the Saints. If you haven’t seen them play yet, it’s worth the time to watch this Ravens defense as it’s dominating. Baltimore beat Tennessee last week 21-0 allowing just 7 first downs and 106 total yards in the game. The Ravens defense has been lights out allowing 14, 14, 9, and 0 points the last 4 gms in regulation. The Saints defense gave up 48 points in opener (to TB) but seem to have righted the ship allowing 19 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games but they’ve played the Browns (24th in scoring), Giants (27th) and Washington (25th). Baltimore is off 3 straight road games and should be happy to be home where they’ve won by 44 and 13 points already this season. Ravens outscoring opponents 62-12 in second half (regulation) of their 6 games this year, thus they are allowing less than a FG average in 2nd half. Baltimore #1 defense allowing 270 YPG (306 is 2nd) also #1 allowing 4.4 yards per play (4.9 is 2nd). We like the Ravens pass defense which is 2nd in the NFL allowing just 188 passing yards per game on the season versus the Saint’s 3rd ranked passing O. Let’s not forget about a Ravens offense that is 9th in the league in yards per game overall and 9th in passing. Baltimore 5-1 SU their last six at home, Saints just 2-4 SU their last six away.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina +5 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We are not a fan of laying points with the Panthers but do like them getting points in this matchup with the Eagles. An interesting game within a game will be the rushing attack of the Panthers versus the Eagles rush defense. It’s literally Strength on strength with Carolina 4th in the NFL in rushing at 139 YPG and Philly #2 at stopping the run allowing 79 YPG. But hold that thought. Are the Eagles really that good at stopping the run? We don’t think so as the Eagles 79 YPG rush defense numbers are a bit skewed as they’ve played the following rush offenses (22nd, 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th, and 31st). The metrics tell us against an average team the Eagles will give up an average of 105RYPG so a good team like Carolina should do more damage on the ground than that. Overall the Eagles defense has given up over 375 yards in 4 of five games this year and over 397 three times. The Panthers have held 2 of the five teams they’ve faced to under 300 total yards of offense. Since their inception in 1995 Carolina is 59-42-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 3 pts and QB Cam Newton is 19-8 ATS as an underdog off a SU loss. Based on strength of schedule and the statistics that account for opponents played, we like Carolina here and the points.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Purdue Boilermakers (+) over Ohio State Buckeyes, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #334

This is a very dangerous game for the Buckeyes. They simply aren’t playing very well right now while Purdue is playing lights out. OSU wins aren’t looking quite as impressive as we may have originally thought. They came from double digits down to beat TCU which looked great at the time. TCU has since gone on to lose 2 of their next 3 games with their only win coming at home vs Iowa State by just 3 points. The Buckeyes were completely outplayed at PSU (outgained by 100+ yards) and pulled out a 1-point win late. The following week they struggled to pull away from a poor Indiana team a few weeks ago leading by just 8 at half. They pulled away late but it wasn’t an overly impressive performance. Last week they were 30 point favorites vs a Minnesota team that is very young starting a freshman at QB and RB. It was a 9-point game midway through the fourth quarter and the Bucks won by 30-14. Again, not impressive. They are struggling to run the ball averaging 3.2 YPC or less in all 3 of their Big Ten games. Purdue is definitely better than their 3-3 record. They were winless their first 3 games but those losses came by a total of 8 points. They have since won 3 straight games with all 3 coming by at least 13 points. The offense for Purdue is performing at a high level as they’ve averaged 39 PPG over their last 4 games. QB David Blough has been lights out completing 68% of his passes for almost 400 YPG over their last 4 contests. Defensively the Boilers held Illinois, who had rushed for 200+ in every game this year, to just 69 yards on the ground last week. Now facing an OSU team that has struggled to run the ball we think they can make the Buckeyes fairly one-dimensional in this game. Purude has now covered 4 straight games by a combined 64 points. They are undervalued right now. It’s a rare, huge home game at night for them and we think OSU should be put on upset alert in this one. Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Kentucky Wildcats (-) over Vanderbilt Commodores, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #312

When a team is rolling they do not necessarily want a bye but when off a loss it can be a welcome chance to regroup and then come out flying immediately in their very next game. This is precisely what we expect from Kentucky here. The Wildcats were 5-0 on the season but then two weeks ago the Cats faced Texas A & M and lost by 6 as it was clearly Kentucky's worst game of the season. Even with the defeat the Wildcats are allowing just 13.8 points per game on the year. The Cats defense has been rock solid this season while the Commodores come into this game having allowed 35.5 points per game their past 4 games. Vanderbilt's defense has allowed more yardage in their last 4 games than Kentucky's D has allowed this entire season - 6 games! The Commodores are allowing an average of 510.8 yards per game their last 4 games. The Wildcats are giving up just 304.8 yards per game on the year. From a situational perspective, it doesn't get much better than this. Kentucky is off a bye week which followed their very first loss of the season while Vandy has lost 4 of its last 5 games and the only win was by just 4 points against an FCS school. The Commodores were favored by 4 touchdowns in that game and yet won by only 4 points! Vanderbilt is playing their 8th straight week while Kentucky is rested. Also, Vandy is on a 1-10 ATS run against SEC foes as they continue to prove to be outclassed against conference opposition. The Wildcats should dominate the ground game here again versus the Commodores. That was a key in last years win by a 23 point margin for Kentucky and that was on the road! The Wildcats have outgained Vanderbilt 490-201 in rushing yardage the past two meetings. Per our math model forecast, the hungry home favorite to control this one from start to finish as the Cats defense continues to dominate while Vandy's porous D continues to be burned by big plays. Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Temple Owls (-) over Cincinnati Bearcats, Saturday at Noon ET: Game #314

Cincinnati is a ranked team and the Bearcats are 6-0 SU on the season. Of course this begs the question how can they be an underdog against a 4-3 Temple team? The answer to that is that nothing is ever as easy as it seems on the surface! The fact is that the odds makers are projecting the Cats to suffer their first loss of the season and we are too! Temple has played the tougher schedule in comparison with Cincinnati. Also, the Bearcats lose some momentum with the bye week last week. A team usually doesn't benefit from a bye when they were already rolling in the first place. What a bye usually does in a case like this is actually let some air out of the tires and the team all of the sudden loses their timing (in terms of execution) and suddenly is no longer on a roll. This is the first time this season that the Bearcats will face a team that has a winning record at the time of the match-up. That is certainly noteworthy as Cincinnati went 2-7 ATS (and 0-9 SU!) the past two seasons when facing a team with a winning record! The Owls continue to be a covering machine and that includes going 17-3 ATS (15-5 SU) in their last 20 games versus American Athletic Conference opponents. The Owls have allowed just 108 passing yards per game their past 5 games. Temple won each of the last two meetings versus Cincinnati by an average margin of 15 points per game. Our math model is forecasting another rout win in this match-up! Look for a home blowout in this very early Saturday afternoon AAC match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Air Force Falcons (-) over UNLV Rebels, Friday at 10 PM ET: Game #309

Even though Falcons QB Donald Hammond III got hurt in the most recent game, the Air Force offense moved the ball just fine with Isaiah Sanders at the helm. Just about any offense in College Football can move the ball well against this porous UNLV defense. The Rebels have allowed an average of 54.5 points per game their past two games and that is bad news for UNLV fans because their offense is having major issues without QB Armani Rogers. The Rebels are on a 1-8 ATS run as a home dog and get blasted again here. Air Force has allowed an average of just 14 points per game their past two games while the Rebels have allowed over 500 yards each of their past two games. Complete mismatch especially with the ground game (Rogers was leading rusher for UNLV). Look for the Falcons to get the cash here. We'll lay the points as we expect a road rout in this Friday late night match-up.

ASA NBA play on: #506 Portland Trailblazers - over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET - What does it tell you that the LA-Bron led Lakers, who have a HUGE media following and public affection are a 3-point dog here? Los Angeles money and tickets have steadily flowed in on the Lakers yet the line on this game has moved from the Blazers being a -2.5-point favorite to a -3-point chalk. After doing this for 30+ years I've learned it's better to be on the Sharps side than the Squares. Portland won 49 games last year in the regular season and had the 9th best overall point differential in the NBA at +2.1PPG. The Blazers home differential was +4.1PPG was 11th best in the league. Portland was 8th in defensive efficiency ratings, 16th in offensive efficiency and had the 4th best rebounding rate in the NBA. Rebounding will play a huge part in this outcome as the Lakers, who were the 2nd best rebounding team in the league last year, lost Randle, Lopez and Nance Jr who combined for 18.4 rebounds per game. Sure the Lakers added LeBron James but they also lost Julius Randle who averaged 16.1PPG, 8RPG and 2.6APG last season. Randle just put up 25 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Pelicans last night in just 24 minutes so don't think for a second he won't be missed. Yes, LBJ will more than make up for those numbers but again it's going to take time for this rebuilt roster to jell. Portland returns everyone from last year's roster and will be anxious for this national TV game at home where they are 118-57 SU since 2014 with an average MOV of 5PPG. Portland has beaten the Lakers 15 straight and will make it 16 tonight. 

ASA PLAY ON 9* Arizona State Sun Devils (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #306

Stanford has allowed an average of 36.3 points per game their last 3 games. Arizona State is allowing an average of 21.2 points per game on the season and the Sun Devils have not allowed more than 28 points in a game this season. The Sun Devils ground game on offense is averaging 175.2 rushing yards per game this season and that is more than double the 85.7 rushing yards per game that the Cardinal are averaging. We love taking home dogs that have a great shot at the edge in the all-important departments of defense as well as the ground game! Stanford is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in Weeks Five through Nine of a season. Arizona State is on a 12-4 ATS run in home games and also 7-3 ATS when off a loss against a conference rival. Look for the Sun Devils to get the cash here. We'll grab the points for added insurance but we expect a home upset in this Thursday night match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5 goals) vs Detroit Red Wings, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET

On April 21, 2016 the Lightning won game 5 of a first round playoff series with the Red Wings to take the series 4 games to 1. Ever since that game these teams have met 8 times the past two seasons and, of course, Detroit has had revenge on their minds in every single game but they have lost every time. The fact is that the once-mighty Red Wings just might be the worst team in the league now while Tampa Bay just might be the best team in the league. Certainly the Bolts are a legitimate Stanley Cup contender and the amazing thing is that they are so deep in terms of their scoring. The Lightning don't even have to have their biggest stars off to hot starts to be able to have put forth a strong start to this season. That said, Tampa Bay is actually "scary good" right now for opponents while the Red Wings are truly "scary bad". Detroit is winless in their 6 games this season and also winless in their last 10 meetings with the Lightning. Tampa Bay will NOT let up here as they have a 5-game road trip on deck. This is the final home game for the Bolts until October 30th so they want to make this one count in a big way! Tampa's last two wins have come by a combined score of 12-4 while the Red Wings last 3 losses have come by a combined score of 20-8. With that said, we love the value with the Lightning on the Puck Line in this one. Of course on the money line the Bolts are about a 3 to 1 favorite here. However, on the puck line, we get them at a pick'em price by laying the 1.5 goals and our math model forecast is a win by a 3 goal margin in this game. The Lightning are the better team in all phases all over the ice and that shows in a big way on Thursday as the Bolts make it 11 straight wins over the Red Wings with a blowout home win. Bet Tampa Bay on the puck line (-1.5 goals) in evening action Thursday.

ASANBA pick - Play on the Utah Jazz -8.5 over Sacramento Kings, 9PM CT - We don't have a problem laying this number on the road with a Jazz team that was 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency last year allowing just 1.016 points per possession. Sacramento on the other hand were one of the worst defensive teams in the league allowing 1.090 points per possession. Utah returns essentially their entire team as do the Kings who added the 2nd overall pick in Marvin Bagley III. The problem with Bagley is that he couldn't play defense in college which is why Duke was forced to play zone last year. Utah was one of just 6 teams in the NBA last year to have a positive differential on the road, while the Kings had a negative average differential of -5.3PPG, second worst number in the NBA. Utah swept the Kings last year 3-0 and have won five in a row in the series. Utah has also covered 15 of their last 23 road contests. After watching the Kings a few times in the preseason it was very apparent how bad their defense is going to be again in 2018. We'll lay the points with Utah and predict a double digit win.

ASA 10* PLAY ON New England -3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

We view this as a game the Pats will want to make a statement.  Many have now said that KC is the team to beat in the AFC which is the title that has been held by the Pats for multiple years.  Do you think Belichick & Brady will want to squash that sentiment in this game?  Add to that this is a revenge game from the season opener last year and you can pretty much guarantee they want to make a statement here.  New England has had extra time to get ready for this huge home match up after beating the Colts 38-24 on Thursday night.  While we believe the Chiefs are a very solid team, we also feel they have been very fortunate to date.  They’ve been outgained in 4 of their 5 games (-300 yards on the season) and they have the worst defense in the NFL allowing 462 YPG (ranking 31st in pass defense & 24th in rush defense).  To be 5-0 in that situation means they’ve absolutely gotten some fortunate breaks.  Last week they beat a very good Jacksonville team 30-14 but were handed the win by the Jags who turned the ball over 5 times including throwing 2 picks in the endzone, another at the 1-yard line, and also throwing a pick 6.  The Jags made 5 official trips inside KC’s 20 yard line and came away with a grand total of 7 points on those possessions.  QB Patrick Mahomes came back to earth throwing 2 picks and 0 TD’s.  We’re positive Belichick will have a very solid defensive gameplan for Mahomes in this one.  The Patriots offense is peaking right now scoring 38 points in each of their last 2 games, they have WR Julian Edelman back in the line up, and Tom Brady should have a field day vs the 31st rank pass defense.  We simply don’t see the Patriots in this price range at home very often as they’ve been a favorite of less than 4 points only 4 times since 2010 (3-1 ATS).  They are also a fantastic 18-3 ATS at home as a favorite of less than a TD since December of 2010.  KC is playing their 4th road game already this season and this is a very dangerous spot for them.  The Pats are 93-15 SU at home since December of 2006 and with this number sitting as low as it is, the value is definitely with the Patriots.  Lay the small number with New England.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Rams finally had to leave the state of California last week and they almost got clipped for the first time this year.  They came from behind in the 4th quarter to beat Seattle 33-31.  IT was just their 2nd road game this season with their first being @ Oakland to open the season.  Now LA is on the road for the 2nd straight week and in altitude.  They should be catching the Broncos in an ornery mood after playing a terrible game on the road last week @ NY Jets.  The Denver defense gave up an uncharacteristic 323 yards on the GROUND to the Jets, the most by a Bronco defense since 2010.  They obviously were not physically or mentally ready for that game and we expect a huge bounce back on Sunday.  While they have struggled on the road winning just 1 of their last 12 games, Denver is a different animal at home.  They are 2-1 here this year with their only loss coming 27-23 to 5-0 Kansas City, a game that Denver led 23-13 midway through the 4th quarter.  They were +3 to +3.5 in that game vs an undefeated KC team and now they are getting a full TD here vs a comparable team.  You almost never see Denver as that type of dog at home as this is just the 4th time since 1980 they’ve been a home dog of +7 or more.  The Rams looked unbeatable early in the season vs Oakland and Arizona but those wins now don’t look quite as impressive as those teams have a combined record of just 2-8.  After their first two games vs weak competition, their defense has not looked very good giving up 23, 31, and 31 points their last 3.  Their run defense has really struggled allowing 5 YPC which is 29th in the NFL.  That’s a problem here vs a Denver rushing attack that ranks #1 in the NFL averaging 5.6 YPC.  This sets up as a dangerous game for the Rams and we’ll grab the generous points with the home team here. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +2 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Big mismatch at the QB position here with Luck vs Darnold.  The much better and more experienced QB is getting points which is always worth a look.  People are overreacting to the Jets crushing the Broncos last week.  It wasn’t a huge surprise as Denver has been a terrible road team under head coach Vance Joseph now losing 11 of their last 12 games away from home.  Darnold had to do very little in that game (completed just 10 passes) as the Jets ran for a ridiculous 323 yards.  It’s not as if the Jets were some terrific running team as they were averaging just 88 YPG on the ground coming into last week’s game.  Now they face an Indy defense that is allowing only 4 YPC which is 10th best in the NFL.  NY won’t run wild this week and Darnold will have more pressure to make plays on Sunday.  Let’s also not forget that the Jets had lost 3 straight games (scoring just 41 combined points in those 3 games) heading into their impressive win vs Denver.  The Colts have had 10 days to rest up and prepare for this game after losing @ New England on Thursday night.  Indy desperately needs a win here as they come in off three straight losses.  Two were down to the wire, tight games @ Philadelphia (lost 20-16) and vs Houston (lost 37-34 in OT).  The Colts have outgained 3 of their 5 opponents and their defense is actually quite solid.  They are very good at getting to the QB (3rd in sacks per game and 6th in sack percentage) so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if Darnold is rushed in to a few mistakes in this game.  Andrew Luck is a great 22-4 SU and 21-5 ATS the game following a SU & ATS loss.  He is rolling right now as well throwing for over 800 yards and 7 TD’s his last 2 games.  We like the Colts to win this game outright on Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC Trojans (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #156

With the Buffaloes at 5-0 on the season, ranked in the top 25, and catching significant points here; of course that is attracting attention within the betting markets as the unranked Trojans are only 3-2 on the season. The key though is in strength of schedule. USC has played a much tougher schedule than Colorado has and the result is superb line value here. The Trojans losses were road losses at Stanford and Texas. The Buffaloes have yet to lose a game but their "toughest" games (based on the lines in those contests) were at Nebraska and versus Arizona State. That is certainly noteworthy as Nebraska is now 0-5 on the season and the Sun Devils have lost 3 of their last 4 games. That said, a game at Southern Cal against a quality Trojans team is certainly a much tougher challenge than hosting ASU and visiting the Huskers (having such an awful season). Also note that the Buffaloes were outgained at Nebraska by a margin of 565 to 395 yards! In other words, Colorado was fortunate to get the win. The Buffs opened the season with a neutral site game against Colorado State and, therefore, this game at USC is just the 2nd true road game for Colorado this season. Considering the Buffaloes, in their first road game of the season, were outgained by 170 yards by a team that is now 0-5 on the season, the Buffs are likely to struggle with the talent level of this Trojans team! Southern Cal is off back to back wins and a bye week. With that said, the Trojans enter this game both rested and confident as they look to make it 3 straight wins in PAC-12 action. USC has won each of the last 7 meetings between these teams (they've met annually since the 2011 season) and the average margin of victory has been 19.4 points per win! Colorado is 1-8 ATS when they are a dog of less than 17 points and playing the first of back to back road games (Buffaloes are at Washington State next week). Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday late night PAC-12 match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* LSU Tigers (+) over Georgia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET Game #198: Many will be set to jump off LSU’s bandwagon after they picked up their first loss of the season last week @ Florida. That result has helped the value here pushing this number above a TD. Last week’s game @ Florida showed a near even stand off on the stat sheet with Florida scoring on an interception return with under 2:00 minutes remaining to salt away the 27-19 win. LSU has been a home dog just 6 times since 2010 and they’ve won half of those games (3) outright. Georgia is a bit overvalued in our opinion. They are undefeated but have yet to be challenged. Their schedule thus far has been fairly weak as this will be by far their toughest test of the season. The Bulldogs have played just 2 road games this year and their most recent one @ Mizzou was a 14 point win with 2 non-offensive TD’s fueling that win in a game that was nearly dead even on the stat sheet. Another key point is UGA has yet to be in a stressful, close game situation due to their fairly easy schedule and we expect them to have some serious adversity for the first time this season in this game. Georgia has never been higher than a 1-point favorite @ LSU and now they are being asked to lay more than a TD. We like LSU to bounce back and play very well this week. We give them a decent shot at the upset so we’ll grab the points.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Baylor Bears (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #187

Perfect spot to fade the Longhorns as they are off of their huge win in their annual rivalry game with Oklahoma last week. Texas expended a ton of energy in securing the victory as the Horns blew a huge lead against the Sooners. Couple that with the fact that Baylor is out for revenge this season (embarrassed 38-7 in Waco last year) and you can see that the set up here is a great one. The Bears are highly motivated while the Longhorns certainly could come out flat as they have won 5 straight games and might get caught looking ahead to their bye. While Baylor also has a bye on deck there is no way they're looking past the Horns after what happened in last season's 31 point home loss. This is a large line given the situation as well as the fact that the Bears, should they need it, also certainly have "backdoor cover" potential here as their offense is averaging 500 yards per game this season. However, we don't expect this game to come down to needing a backdoor cover as our computer math model forecast has the Bears hanging close throughout this game and actually having a shot at the outright upset. The Longhorns are only 1-3 ATS the last 4 times they've been a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Also, Texas is an ugly 1-10 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points and are facing a team playing with revenge. That system fits perfectly here and we have no doubt about the type of effort the Bears are going to bring in this one! Look for the big road dog to stay well within the number in this Saturday afternoon BIG 12 match-up.

ASA 9* Arizona Wildcats (+) over Utah Utes, Friday at 10:00 PM ET - The Utes are off of a big upset win at Stanford last week. Utah also has USC on deck. From a situational perspective, this game certainly sets up as a flat spot for the Utes. Also, Arizona has revenge from losing each of the last two meetings including last season's game which the Wildcats lost at home. The Cats are getting about two touchdowns in this spot and the big dog is offering significant line value. After dropping their first two games this season, Arizona is 3-1 SU and ATS their last 4 games. Even though Utah won last week at Stanford they were outgained in that game. Also, last season's match-up between these teams saw the Utes get outgained by over 100 yards by the Wildcats in a game that had a deceiving final score. We look for Arizona to improve to 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Cats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games with a total set between 49.5 and 52 points. Utah is 1-3 ATS this season in games played on turf. Bet ARIZONA

ASA 9* Arkansas State (+) over Appalachian State, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a case where perception doesn't meet reality. Yes Appalachian State is 5-0 on the season but they've played a much weaker schedule than Arkansas State has. Now, on the road, and in a primetime rare national TV game for Arkansas State at home, the Red Wolves are going to be amped up. Getting double digits at home in a situation like this is a great value and the Red Wolves are 7-0-1 ATS in October games. Also, Arkansas State is 3-1 ATS the last 4 times they've been a dog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. All 3 of those wins were outright upset wins. The Red Wolves pass defense has been great except for when they played Alabama and who stops the Crimson Tide? That said, we feel the Mountaineers are going to struggle to get any type of significant margin in this Tuesday night road game against the Red Wolves. Play ARKANSAS STATE

ASA PLAY ON 9* Anaheim Ducks Puck Line (-1.5 goals) vs Detroit Red Wings, Monday at 10:05 PM ET

The Red Wings are very banged up on the blue line. A number of defensemen are out for Detroit. That is going to make this back to back spot even tougher for the Wings as they battled the Kings last night and lost. Detroit is now 0-2 on the season while Anaheim is a perfect 2-0 on the season. Of course the money line is up in the 2 to 1 range and that is why we're grabbing the value with the puck line. By laying the 1.5 goals with the Ducks were are able to get a solid plus money return on Anaheim. The Ducks have won their two games by a combined score of 6 to 2 as goalie John Gibson is off to a stellar start this season. Anaheim won their last home game versus Detroit by 2 goals and another big home win is likely here. Non only are the Ducks catching the Red Wings in a back to back, Anaheim had two days off after the first game and the Ducks were off yesterday too and they are off tomorrow. Full focus here for Anaheim. The Ducks have won 36 of their last 51 home games with a total set at 5.5 goals. The Red Wings have lost 47 of 67 when off a game where they allowed 4 or more goals. Bet Anaheim on the puck line (-1.5 goals) in late night action Monday.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Washington +6 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

The Skins are in a nice spot here having 2 full weeks to get ready for this one.  Washington comes into this game with a 2-1 record with wins over Arizona & Green Bay and a loss to Indy.  They have outgained all 3 opponents including the Colts in their lone loss.  In that loss the Redskins missed a FG and pushed inside the Indy 40-yard line on each of their final 4 possessions and came away with just 6 points.  They bounced back with a home win over the Packers to carry some momentum into their bye week.  Washington has a huge edge defensively in this game as they rank #1 in total defense allowing only 278 YPG and #2 giving up only 4.7 YPP.  And remember they have faced Aaron Rodgers AND Andrew Luck in 2 of their 3 games.  New Orleans ranks 23rd in total defense allowing 391 YPG and 30th giving up 6.5 YPP.  The QB’s they have faced are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, Matt Ryan, and Eli Manning.  We’d have to say Washington has the better numbers defensively and played the tougher QB slate thus far.  While the Skins have outgained all 3 of their opponents, the Saints are getting outgained on the year by an average of 28 YPG.  We understand that Alex Smith is no Drew Brees but has been very solid for a full year plus now.  This year Smith is completing 69% of his passes for an average of 8 yards per pass attempt.  He has the better running game to help compliment him as well with the Skins averaging 138 YPG on the ground (3rd in the NFL).  Also expect Washington RB Adrian Peterson to have a little extra juice tonight facing the team that released him last year and with 2 weeks off.  Better defense, better running game, and a solid QB means we’ll take the 6 points in this one.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Arizona +3.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

After getting smoked their first two games of the year, the Cards have actually turned it around and are playing much better the last two weeks.  Granted they are still 0-4, but they played a very solid Chicago team well two weeks ago in a 16-14 loss.  They led 14-0 in that game so they definitely had a shot at the win.  Last week they lost 20-17 to Seattle as the Seahawks kicked the game winning FG as time expired.  New Arizona QB Josh Rosen was solid throwing for 180 yards, 1 TD, and most importantly no turnovers.  His numbers should have been better as the Cards dropped a number of passes they should not have.  RB David Johnson also started to look like his old self so this offense should be better moving forward.  That should start this week as Arizona has played a very tough schedule of defenses with all 4 ranking in the top 9 in PPG allowed.  Now they face a San Fran defense that is allowing 30 PPG and has given up at least 24 in every game this season.  The Niners had to go with their back up QB last week and the team rallied around CJ Beathard as normally happens in the first game without their star QB Garopollo.  They fell short @ the LA Chargers 29-27.  We expect them to regress this week after they lost their rallying cry game last week.  Beathard had a solid game but did throw 2 interception and lifetime he has more picks than TD passes.  He also is 1-5 as a starter and completes just 55% for his career.  Arizona’s defense, despite their record, has been solid.  If you take out their game vs the Rams (allowed 34 points in that game) who score on everyone, the Cards defense is allowing just 20 PPG.  They also rank as the 11th most efficient defense in the NFL.  The Cards have won 7 of the last 8 in this series and they are 4-0 ATS their last 4 visits to San Fran.  Take the points.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Oakland +6 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Raiders come into this game off a dramatic OT win over Cleveland.  That makes them 1-3 on the season and we’re guessing takes a little pressure off Gruden and company now that they have a win under their belt.  It’s not as if the Raiders were overmatched in their 3 losses as they led in the 4th quarter @ Denver and @ Miami and led late in the 3rd quarter vs the Rams.  They have actually outgained 3 of their 4 opponents and their YPG differential on the season is +39.  The Raiders are better than their 1-3 record in our opinion.  It’s not like the Chargers are lighting the world on fire here.  Their two wins have come against Buffalo and a San Francisco team without their starting QB.  That win over the Niners came last week and the Chargers had to come from behind in the 4th quarter to get that win.  The LA defense allowed back up QB Beathard to throw for 298 yards and 2 TD’s in that game.  This has been a hotly contested AFC West rivalry with 7 of the last 8 meetings being decided by one score.  The underdog has been money in the bank in this rivalry covering 15 of the last 18.  Don’t expect a huge home field advantage here either as the Chargers do not draw well in LA and the Raiders, who were formerly in LA, will have plenty of fans at the Stub Hub Center.  Take the points as we expect a close game here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Jacksonville +3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’re getting points with the better team here.  Much has been made of KC’s offense thus far but we expect defenses to catch up with their scheme.  We could see it on Monday night when KC went into Denver and had only 13 points with under 7:00 minutes remaining in the game.  They did score 2 TD’s late but for much of the game their offense was held in check by a pretty average Denver defense that ranks middle of the pack in most key categories.  Now they face a Jacksonville defense that ranks #2 in the NFL in efficiency, #1 in PPG allowed, #1 in YPG allowed, and #2 in yards per play allowed.  KC is on a short week after a come from behind division win on Monday night which is not a great spot for them.  While the Jags might have the best defense in the NFL, the Chiefs might have the worst.  They rank near the bottom of the NFL in many key categories including total defense, scoring defense, YPP defense, rush defense, yards per pass attempt allowed, and defensive efficiency.  The Jaguar offense has been solid with the exception of one game this year vs the Titans.  They’ve scored 31 points in 2 of their last 3 games and will put points up here vs a bad KC defense.  We rate Jacksonville with a big edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball which normally doesn’t equate to an underdog which is what we have here.  KC is overvalued right now because of their offense.  They’ve put up big numbers however all 4 of their opponents rank 20th or lower in pass defense.  They now run into a great defense in Jacksonville that ranks #1 in pass defense and a team who also has a pretty good offense.  The yards per play differential with these two teams in tells us a lot with Jacksonville at +1.3 YPP (one of the best in the NFL) and KC at -0.1 YPP.  This is one of those games a few months from now people may look back and wonder why they didn’t take advantage of Jacksonville as an underdog in this spot.  We’ll make sure we do.  Take the Jags here.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Stanford Cardinal (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #364

The questionable status of Bryce Love has resulted in a very favorable line here. Even if he did not play in this game we do not expect this to be a significant factor. Keep in mind the Cardinal have been getting the job done through the air rather than on the ground. 72% of their yardage this season has come via the passing attack and they're hosting a Utah team that allowed 445 passing yards at Washington State last week! This is absolutely a critical game for Stanford as they have a bye week on deck and they want to respond after a dismal effort at Notre Dame last week. After that non-conference game, the Cardinal will be highly motivated for a Pac 12 match-up. Also, from mid-September to late October, this is the only home game for Stanford so they want to make it count to say the least! The Utes, since a road win at Arizona early last season, have gone 2-8 SU in their last 10 Pac 12 games and that includes an 0-2 start this season. Stanford is 12-2 SU in their last 14 regular season games and 9 of the 12 wins have come by 7 points or more. Based on the above, you can see why we're very comfortable laying the points here as this line has been holding at under a touchdown during this week leading up to the game. Lay the points and look for the home team to win in a blowout in this Saturday late night match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #387

The Hawkeyes can't wait to get on the field for this one. After a tough home loss versus Wisconsin - game was much closer than final score indicates - Iowa has had two weeks to wait for this game because of a bye last week. That said, off of their first loss of the season, the Hawkeyes are extra hungry. One could argue the same fact for the Golden Gophers as Minnesota is off of their first loss of the season too and is coming off of a bye week. However, that is where the comparisons end. For one thing, Iowa played a solid Badgers team and played them tough. Compare this with Minnesota playing a Maryland team that is certainly not a Big Ten powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination and they got blasted by a 29-point margin. A big concern for the Golden Gophers is they allowed over 300 yards rushing in that game. Iowa has a very capable ground attack that is balanced well by a passing attack that has averaged nearly 300 yards per game their past two games. Iowa has a huge edge at the skill positions as Minnesota lost their senior running back early this season and now has much of the running back duties being handled by freshmen plus the Golden Gophers have a freshman QB whom is a walk-on. There is simply no comparison between the talent level of these teams. Also, while Kirk Ferentz is in his 20th year as the head coach at Iowa - longest-tenured head coach among FBS schools in the nation - PJ Fleck is in his just 2nd season with Minnesota and there are still growing pains. Though the Golden Gophers started the season with 3 straight wins, two of those victories came against over-matched New Mexico State and Miami-Ohio. Minnesota went just 2-7 in Big Ten action last season and is now 2-8 in Big Ten games under PJ Fleck after getting demolished by the Terrapins two weeks ago. The 8 losses have come by an average margin of 19 points per defeat. That is very close to what our computer math model is predicting for this game. Iowa is a 1 TD favorite but the forecast is for a blowout by a 3 TD margin. The Hawkeyes are 8-0 ATS the last 8 times they've been a favorite of less than 17 points and they are facing an opponent off of a SU loss by a margin of more than 14 points. That system fits perfectly here! Look for a road rout win in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.

ASA 9* BYU (-) over Utah State, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - The Cougars are off a rough game @ Washington losing 35-7. It was a poor performance on both sides of the ball against one of the top teams in the nation so we expect a big effort at home in a game BYU needs to win. They come in with a 3-2 overall record but they’ve also played one of the toughest schedules in the nation thus far already facing the likes of Wisconsin, Arizona, California, and Washington. They are one of just 6 teams in the nation that have already faced 4 Power Five teams. They beat both Wisconsin & Arizona on the road so this team is definitely capable. The one negative we see with this game is they do catch Utah State off a bye which we’re not crazy about. However, USU has played a MUCH easier schedule. They played Michigan State tough in a 7-point loss to open the season. They were a little lucky to stay close in that game as they were outgained by over 100 yards and benefitted from a interception return for TD. Since that game the Aggies have played New Mexico State, Tennessee Tech, and Air Force. So while BYU has been playing a tough slate of teams to prepare them for this spot, USU has been padding their overall stats vs weak opponents. The Aggies offensive numbers are impressive, but the last 3 games they’ve faced the 103rd ranked defense (NMSU), 70th ranked defense (Air Force) and a Tennessee Tech defense that has allowed 51 PPG this year. These two met last year @ Utah State and BYU was a 1-point favorite in that game. Now a much improved BYU team is laying just 2 points at home. The Aggies won last year 40-26 at home but it was a misleading final score as BYU outgained them 396 to 288. BYU had a ridiculous 7 turnovers in that game which led to the USU win. Now Utah State will attempt to beat BYU in consecutive seasons for the first time since the 1974 season! It won’t happen here as the Cougars will be focused and play very well after their worst outing of the season. Lay this small number at home with BYU

ASA PLAY ON 9* Atlanta Braves Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Thursday at 8:35 PM ET

With the line move here there is excellent line value on the underdog Braves at +1.5 runs on the run line. The price is in the -130 range and it gives you the added insurance of turning a 1-run loss into a winning ticket you can cash at the window. The fact is that we expect the Dodgers to struggle just to win this game let alone win it by 2 or more runs. Los Angeles moved back Clayton Kershaw to Game 2 so Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the start here. Though he is also a southpaw he certainly is no Kershaw and the Braves have been one of the best hitting teams in the majors versus left-handed pitching this season. Also Atlanta's Mike Foltneywicz has a stellar 2.48 ERA on the road this season and has allowed a total of just 6 earned runs in his 5 road starts the past two months! The Dodgers Ryu has allowed 38 hits in 35 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last 6 home starts. He was truly hit very hard in 3 of those 6 outings and now faces a tough Atlanta lineup. No doubt the Braves should be "in this one" all the way and have a great shot at the outright upset. We'll grab the extra insurance with the run line should they fall one run short in this one. Bet Atlanta on the run line (+1.5 runs) in evening action Thursday

ASA PLAY ON 9* Oakland Athletics Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ New York Yankees, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET

Oakland has decided on a multi-pitcher effort in the AL Wild Card game as Liam Hendriks is slated to get the start but is likely to only pitch an inning or two. With nearly all A's arms available in a "win or go home" game, we like the odds of a strong effort from the A's pitchers in this one and will take advantage of the value in fading Luis Severino. The Yankees righty has struggled every since the All Star break. Of course many will remember his first start of last year's post-season too where he was drilled by Minnesota and forced to exit in the first inning due to inefficiency. Overall, Severino had a sub-par post-season last year and we like the value with Athletics +1.5 runs on the run line. The A's did hit Severino hard in early September and knocked him out of the game by the 3rd inning. The Yankees, on the run line at -1.5 runs, have only cashed a ticket TWICE in their last EIGHT games in the Bronx! The A's have been one of the hottest teams in baseball for months now and at +1.5 runs have been particularly lethal dating back to early in the season. Even including their early season stats when they weren't playing as well, Oakland has only 51 losses by 2 or more runs this season meaning their record at +1.5 runs would be 111-51. The Yankees are only 17-15 on the money line their last 32 games and, at -1.5 runs, that record turns into an unimpressive 13-19. Bet the Oakland A's on the run line (+1.5 runs) in evening action Wednesday

ASA PLAY ON 9* Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line (-1.5 goals) vs Montreal Canadiens, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

Toronto is on the ascension in a big way while the Canadiens struggle continue. Of course that is why the Maple Leafs are north of a 2 to 1 money line favorite in their season opener versus division rival Montreal Wednesday. That said, what we like here is the value with the puck line as we can lay the 1.5 goals and, in turn, we get a plus money return offered back to us. The Canadiens are missing a couple of their Top Six defensemen, David Slemko and Shea Weber, and also the Habs simply won't be able to stop the powerhouse Maple Leafs forwards. Montreal lost 17 of the 21 road starts made by goalie Carey Price last season! Toronto won 27 of the 38 home starts made by Frederik Anderson. This is simply a mismatch all the way around and a home victory by a multiple-goal margin can be expected. The Canadiens have lost 10 of their last 12 road games with a total set at 6 or more goals. The Maple Leafs have won 28 of their last 41 home games with a total set at 6 goals or more. Bet Toronto on the puck line (-1.5 goals) in early evening action Wednesday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

We love looking at teams with the MUCH better defense getting points.  That’s absolutely what we have here as Baltimore has the 5th most efficient defense in the NFL right now (according to Football Outsiders) and Pittsburgh is 19th.  The Ravens are allowing just 17 PPG while the Steelers have given up 30 PPG on the season.  On top of that Baltimore is allowing 138 fewer yards per game so overall ranking 1st in the NFL on total defense so a big edge defensively for us in this one.  The Pittsburgh offense looks as if they are rolling the last 2 weeks putting up big numbers vs KC & Tampa.  However, let’s put that in perspective as those team defenses rank 31st and 32nd in total defense.  The one decent defense the Steelers played this year was Cleveland and they scored just 21 in that game.  Baltimore’s offense is looking much better than it did the last few seasons as they are already averaging 32 PPG this season.  They will absolutely be able to move the ball vs this porous Pitt defense on Sunday.  Pittsburgh is on a short week after winning Monday night at Tampa 30-27 – nearly blowing a 30-10 lead because of their poor defense.  Steelers just 3-9 ATS their last 12 games off an outright win and 12 of last 20 in this series have been decided by 3 or less.  The dog is 9-3-1 ATS last 12 meetings and we simply think Baltimore is the better team this year.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

If Jon Gruden doesn't win this game he might just get run out of Oakland along with his 100 million dollar contract! The Raiders have played well this year but haven't cracked the win column yet, that changes today. Oakland has outgained the Rams and Dolphins and were barely outgained by 12 yards in Denver but are still 0-3. The Raiders have the 11th best offensive efficiency rating in the NFL this year and that's going against a solid group of defenses. Oakland's defensive efficiency is skewed as they've faced two top 8 offenses this year and Denver who is 15th. What we're saying is this, the Raiders are far better than their record indicates and are only laying a field goal or less in this contest. Cleveland comes into this game with their first win since 2016 as they beat the Jets. Really, a win over a bad Jets team with another rookie QB makes this team even on a neutral field against the Raiders? The Browns have lost 22 straight road losses and have their own rookie QB making his first start ever on the road. Cleveland's offense is one of the worst in the league at 30th in OEFF and 20 points (average) isn't going to be enough to keep pace with the Raiders who are 6th in the league in total yards per game (400ypg).  The Browns last 16 road losses have come by an average of 11.5PPG! Need we say more. Play the Raiders. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) over Kentucky Wildcats, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #141

When you see a ranked team hosting an unranked foe and yet priced in a "pick'em" range it certainly is something worthy of investigation. Of course the markets are enamored with Kentucky right now after seeing them upset Mississippi State last week. However the Bulldogs were caught looking ahead to a big game against Florida (their former coach) and they paid for it with an ugly loss. Prior to this game the Wildcats have looked strong but two of their three prior games were against Central Michigan and Murray State. They're facing a tough South Carolina team that has inexplicably lost 4 straight meetings with the Cats. In other words, revenge is in order here. The Gamecocks have a ton of momentum here as they completely demolished the Commodores in the 2nd half of their game last week at Vanderbilt. Though South Carolina lost by 10 to the Wildcats last season, they actually outgained Kentucky in that game. The Gamecocks have faced the tougher schedule this season and also could have the fresher legs here. The Wildcats will be playing their 5th straight Saturday while South Carolina had a bye two weeks ago on the 15th prior to then pummeling Vanderbilt last week. Kentucky is 20-37 SU (including 3-6 SU in recent seasons) when off of a win over an SEC foe. South Carolina, in games with a line between -3 and +3, has gone 4-1 SU and ATS in recent seasons. The Gamecocks are also 3-1 SU (4-0 ATS) in their last 4 games played on turf. The South Carolina passing attack has been a clear strength this season and will be the difference-maker in this match-up. The Wildcats rely heavily on the run and the Gamecocks actually have been strong against the run but their numbers got skewed by the match-up against Georgia. Of course the Bulldogs are certainly one of the top teams in the nation and note that South Carolina held their other two opponents this season (including Vandy last week) to an average of only 3 yards per carry. With this line currently at -1 on Kentucky but possibly moving higher (the public choice in this match-up) it is also worth nothing that the Wildcats are on a 2-11 ATS run as a favorite! Look for a road rout revenge win in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Mississippi State Bulldogs (-) over Florida Gators, Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #194

Mississippi State is in bounce back mode after they appeared to look right past Kentucky and lost 28-7 last week as a double digit favorite. While Florida is 3-1 so far this season and has rolled to a 3-1 ATS mark they've been in their preferred role as a favorite. As an underdog the past two seasons the Gators went an ugly 1-9 ATS and that includes 0-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Florida's head coach Dan Mullen is facing his former team and the Bulldogs will have some extra motivation as the message was that he left under the premise the grass was greener on the other side of the fence! The Gators won by 26 at Tennessee last week but actually barely outgained the Volunteers in that game and that is helping to add to the line value in this match-up. The spread had been above 7 but has settled back in at 7 as of early Friday morning. Mississippi State is on a 4-0 ATS run when hosting the Gators. Though these teams have faced very similar schedules early this season, the Bulldogs offense has averaged over 100 yards more than the Florida offense while allowing about 70 yards less per game on the other side of the ball. Take the highly motivated home team that has outperformed this foe on both sides of the ball so far this season and that is ready to respond after that unexpected loss to the Wildcats. Clearly the Bulldogs were looking ahead to this match-up and they'll be ready here. We expect a home blowout in this Saturday early evening match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Northwestern Wildcats (+) over Michigan Wolverines, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET: Game #210

When off of their regular season bye week, Northwestern is 3-0 ATS their last 3. The Wildcats needed the bye after a disappointing (and highly unexpected) home loss to Akron as a 3-TD underdog. Northwestern did out-gain the Zips by 124 yards and have held each of their last two opponents under 100 yards rushing. The Wildcats did lose RB Jeremy Larkin as he is being forced to retire due to a medical condition but look for them to rally around this factor and have a huge home game performance versus Michigan here. The Wolverines have won 3 straight games by big margins but their schedule has been light since opening up the season with a loss to Notre Dame. That loss to the Fighting Irish dropped Michigan to 7-15 ATS the last 22 times they've been a road favorite and we feel they're getting far too much respect from the betting markets in this match-up. This line has climbed from its opener and is now above the two TD mark (14.5 / 15) as of early Friday morning. Michigan is on a 1-4 ATS run in games played on grass. Northwestern is 3-0 ATS when off B2B straight-up losses and also 15-4 ATS their last 19 in Big Ten action. Excellent home dog value with the Wildcats. Grab the big points and look for the home team to hang tough in this Saturday afternoon match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Colorado Rockies Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Washington Nationals, Friday at 8:10 PM ET

The Rockies are 9-1 in Kyle Freeland's last 10 starts. In home starts Colorado is 12-2 in Freeland's 14 starts. The Rockies southpaw has a 2.36 ERA in those outings. Of course Colorado is in a big battle for a playoff spot and they're hosting a Washington team that has long been eliminated from post-season contention and that is 0-2 in games against the Rockies when Freeland is starting. Joe Ross got rocked for 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings in his lone career start versus Colorado. The Rockies are 7-0 in their last 7 games and all 7 wins came by 2 or more runs. That is why there is great value with the run line here. By laying the 1.5 runs the Rockies price is right around break even. The Nationals have lost both the starts that Ross has made this season. The Rockies are on a 37-22 run in games against teams with a winning record. Washington is just 18-26 this season in games against left-handed starters. Bet the Colorado Rockies on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Friday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +7.5 over LA Rams, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

The Vikings are now backed into a corner having lost last week to Buffalo and tied the week before vs Green Bay.  This is a much bigger game for Minnesota coming in with a 1-1-1 record.  The Vikes come into this one angry after a complete no-show last week at home vs Buffalo.  They became the first team since 1995 to lose outright as a 16-point or higher favorite.  A letdown was expected from Minnesota after an overtime tie with Green Bay a week earlier and this game with the Rams on deck.  The yardage vs Buffalo was dead even but Minny had 3 turnovers while the Bills didn’t turn the ball over.  Buffalo jumped out to a 24-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter which took Minnesota completely out of their offensive game plan.  They only ran the ball 6 times while attempting 55 passes.  The Rams are obviously very good but we feel they come in a bit overvalued after winning each of their first 3 games by double digits.  Remember two of those wins were against Oakland and Arizona who have combined to go 0-6.  The look ahead line on this game before the season began was the Rams -3.  Now we’re getting a full TD with one of the top teams in the NFL coming off an embarrassing loss.  They’re facing the Rams with both starting CB’s out and on top of that, Viking head coach Mike Zimmer is 11-2 ATS when off a loss and facing a non-NFC North foe.  Take the points here.

Miami Hurricanes (-) over North Carolina Tar Heels at 8 PM ET Thursday - The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these ACC foes. Even though Miami has Florida State on deck, the Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 ACC openers. The Canes have been very strong on defense this season and while the North Carolina defense has struggled badly. With the line opening as high as 21.5 and now down to as low as 17.5, there is additional value here as this one does have the makings of a home blowout. The Tar Heels finally got into the win column last week versus Pittsburgh so this is the perfect spot to fade them off of the home dog upset. Combined edges above of 13-2 (87%) ATS in favor of a play on the big home favorite here. Lay the points with Miami

ASA 8* PLAY ON Pittsburgh +2 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

This line originally had the Steelers favored by 2 to 2.5 and has swung all the way to Tampa favored by 2.  In all honesty we felt the Steelers favored by 2 was some OK line value.  That’s because the original look ahead line on this game before the season began had the Steelers -4.  Now that it’s swung to Tampa favored based on the first two weeks of results and perceptions of the two teams, we’ll side with Pittsburgh.  We understand that TB QB Fitzpatrick has played out of his mind in the first 2 games completing 78% of his passes with 8 TD’s but his past results tell us this probably won’t continue.  His lifetime NFL record as a starter is just 50 wins, 70 losses, and 1 tie and his career completion percentage is 60%.  If this Buccaneer offense slows down at all, which we believe it has to, they might be in trouble with a defense allowing 6.6 YPP (3rd worst in the NFL) and over 28 PPG.  The Pittsburgh offense is absolutely good enough to exploit that defense.  Now the Steeler is another issue as they are poor as well.  However much of that was facing a KC offense last week that has been ridiculously good.  This game is MUCH more important for the 0-1-1 Steelers (Tampa is 2-0).  They really can’t afford to be winless 3 weeks into the season.  Pitt isn’t as bad as many are making them out to be.  They tied Cleveland despite being -5 in turnovers for that game alone and the dominated the stat sheet in that game.  Then they lost a tight on 42-37 to a KC team that might be the hottest in the NFL right now.  We like the Steelers to pull the upset, if you want to call it that, tonight in Tampa.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago Cubs Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Chicago White Sox, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET

The Cubs are still trying to hold off the Brewers in the NL Central. Of course the White Sox would like to play the role of spoiler but this one sets up as a complete pitching mismatch. The Cubs Kyle Hendricks has allowed a total of only 7 earned runs in his last 6 starts and those outings have total nearly 39 innings! White Sox starter Carlos Rodon has been at the other end of the spectrum of late as he has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts and has had major issues with command of his pitches which has led to far too many walks. We get line value here by playing the run line with the Cubs as, at -1.5 runs, their price is in the -125 range. 7 of the Cubs last 8 road wins have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. As for the White Sox, 36 of their last 42 losses have come by 2 or more runs! This one has "road rout" written all over it. Bet the Chicago Cubs on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early afternoon action Sunday

ASA 8* PLAY ON Philadelphia -6.5 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We like the line value with the Eagles here.  Last week the Colts traveled to Washington (we had Colts) and pulled off the upset win 21-9.  The line in that game was Washington -6 which is the same line as we have on Sunday vs the Eagles.  Are the Skins the equal of the Eagles as this line would suggest?  The answer to that is a resounding no in our opinion.  We’re also getting the Super Bowl Champs off an upset loss last week in Tampa which adds to their motivation here.  Carson Wentz is back under center for Philly in this game and while he might be a little rusty early, we anticipate him having a very good game facing an Indy pas defense that is allowing opposing QB’s (Dalton & Smith) to complete 73% of their passes on the season (27th in the NFL).  Wentz also gives the Eagles the best chance to move the ball offensively as Foles has struggled a bit early in the year.  Wentz is 13-2 SU his last 15 starts and 12-3 ATS so he has definitely been a money maker.  Philly’s defense is among the best in the NFL and after shutting down a very good Atlanta offense to just 12 points, they had problems last week in Tampa.  We expect them to bounce back and play very well at home on Sunday.  The Super Bowl champs at home off a loss as a favorite facing a team off an upset win as an underdog sets up nicely.  Lay it.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -10 over Denver, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

The Broncos are easily the weakest 2-0 team in the NFL.  Their two wins have come against Seattle & Oakland by a combined 4 points.  Those two teams have yet to win a game and BOTH led Denver in the 4th quarter before the Broncos rallied for a tight win.  Now Denver has to travel to the east coast in their first road game of the year and they are a team that is 1-9 SU their last 10 road games.  Denver’s once vaunted defense looks like they have lost their luster.  Especially vs the pass where Oakland’s David Carr lit them up last week for 288 yards completing 29 of his 32 attempts.  A week earlier Russell Wilson threw for 298 yards and 3 TD’s on this Denver defense.  Now they face Joe Flacco who has thrown for 620 yards and 5 TD’s in his two games.  Expect a big day from him.  The Ravens are off a Thursday night loss @ Cincinnati so they have had extra time to get ready for this home game.  They actually outgained the Bengals in that game and despite their 1-1 record Baltimore is +268 in total yardage on the year.   Since 2003, undefeated teams that are underdogs of more than three points on the road are just 36-52-2 ATS (41%) against the spread.  Baltimore by a TD or more in this one.

ASA 8* PLAY ON San Francisco +7 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Lots of people jumping on the KC bandwagon after the first two weeks which is why this line is a bit out of whack in our opinion.  This line before the season kicked off was KC -2.5 and now it’s risen a full 4 points based on the first two weeks of the season.  That gives us some serious value on San Francisco in this game.  For comparison, the Niners were 6-point underdogs @ Minnesota in week 1 (lost by 8) and now they are getting more points from a Chiefs team that is not on the same level as the Vikings in our opinion.  The Chiefs are 2-0 with wins over the Chargers & Steelers, but they have been outgained by over 200 yards in those two games combined.  The Chiefs also rank DEAD LAST in the NFL in total defense allowing 508 YPG.  Young QB Patrick Mahomes has thrown 10 TD’s (so he’s on pace for 80?) and has yet to commit a turnover.  All of these fortunate circumstances simply cannot continue and KC is massively overvalued right now.  San Francisco comes in with a 1-1 record taking Minnesota to the wire on the road and they controlling Detroit in a game whose final score was very misleading – SF led 30-13 in the 4th quarter and won 30-27.  The Niners have a productive offense that is putting up 6 YPP and a QB (Garoppolo) that is solid.  They also have a defense that is allowing 123 YPG fewer than KC even though they’ve faced two very good offenses in Minnesota & Detroit.  We like San Francisco to keep this close at worst and win outright at best.  Take the points. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State Aggies (-) over Air Force Falcons, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET: Game #392

Air Force returned only 5 starters on offense and 6 starters on defense. That 6 became 5 when starting DB James Jones was lost for the season (ACL). Last season the Falcons went just 5-7 on the season as they returned only 6 starters total! That is why there has been a big drop-off in talent level and experience at Air Force as their three previous bowl seasons (2014 to 2016) saw them average 13 returning starters. Now the past two seasons, and with the loss of Jones, they've averaged 8 returning starters. This spells trouble against the revenge-minded Aggies here. Utah State has had this game circled as they have lost each of the last 3 meetings with Air Force and all 3 were very close games. Keep in mind, prior to this 3-game losing streak (each game decided by just a single score), the Aggies had won the two prior meetings (2013 and 2014) by an average margin of 25 points per game. We feel that, based on the disparity between these two teams this season coupled with the fact that this game is in Logan Utah, a blowout of similar proportion is on tap here! Utah State returned 18 starters this season and looks solid on both sides of the ball and they are particularly improved on the defensive side of the ball. Air Force is off of a bye last week but the Aggies have a bye week on deck so there is no real edge for the Falcons there. In fact, with how "out of sorts" that the Falcons were at Florida Atlantic two weeks ago (allowed 471 yards passing!) a bye week may not help matters as Air Force is seeking some consistency in their play and they don't have it right now. The Aggies threw for nearly 300 yards in last week's win and they did eclipse 300 passing yards at Michigan State in their season opener too. Also, the ground attack has averaged nearly 300 yards per game the past two weeks. Utah State's defense has looked much improved early this season and has the veteran experience to handle the Falcons option attack. Air Force is the only Mountain West team to beat the Aggies each of the last three seasons. That's right, not even Boise State has done that as Utah State upset them at Boise in 2015. The point being that head coach Chris Wells and the upperclassmen that are up and down this Aggies lineup are ready for their revenge here and they'll take advantage of a Falcons team that is heading for another down season just like last year. The Aggies already have benefited from 9 turnovers in 3 games this season and Utah State will continue be opportunistic on defense. This is all without linebacker Suli Tamaivena. Though the senior is still out the Aggies defense has filled in well in his absence and is loaded with upperclassmen. Lay the points and look for a home blowout in this Saturday night Mountain West match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Michigan State Spartans (-) over Indiana Hoosiers, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #317

The Spartans did win by 8 over the Hoosiers last year but this game still means plenty to them. Not only is it their Big Ten opener and not only are they off of a loss (at Arizona State prior to last week's bye), Michigan State did lose their last visit to Indiana. The Spartans were favored in that game and had won their prior visit to Indiana by a 39-point winning margin. Suffice to say the loss was unexpected and the Spartans will also be "more than ready" here as a result of the late-game collapse against the Sun Devils two weeks ago. Even though the Hoosiers are 3-0 SU this season they have played a much weaker schedule in comparison with 1-1 Michigan State. This is helping to add to the line value here. Now things toughen up for Indiana and they bring an ugly 6-12 SU mark (and 5-13 ATS) in Big Ten action into this game. The Spartans only have Central Michigan (a MAC team) on deck so they're certainly going to play hard for the full sixty minutes here - especially after blowing their prior game at ASU! One final ATS tightener here is that when Indiana is a Big Ten dog of less than 21 points, they've gone 3-20-2 ATS! We like those odds as the hungry Spartans make up for their last visit to Bloomington! We'll gladly lay the rather short number being offered in this Saturday evening Big Ten match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Clemson Tigers (-) over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #337

The key to success against the Yellow Jackets is stopping the option attack. Of course the Tigers are known for their defense but what has been especially impressive about Clemson's recent meetings with Georgia Tech is that they've been great against the Yellow Jackets ground game. Georgia Tech has been held to an average of just 121.3 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry in their last 3 meetings with the Tigers. For a team that relies on their rushing attack to move the ball, those are very poor numbers. That said, though Clemson won those 3 meetings by an average margin of 17 points per game, the victory margin easily could have been much more. On Saturday, we feel it absolutely will be much more! The Tigers have already faced two ground-based offenses (Furman and Georgia Southern) in the first three weeks of the season so they'll again be geared up for stopping the Yellow Jackets offense. The key to a blowout margin this season is the fact that the Jackets defense has allowed an average of 36.5 points per game the past two weeks and they now face a Tigers team averaging 38 points per game and over 500 yards of offense per game. While the Yellow Jackets have put up some impressive stats on offense this season, they now face one of the top defenses in the nation and a D that has been a nemesis for them for 3 years straight! Georgia Tech lost some key personnel from last year's defense and Clemson will exploit those holes just like South Florida did when the Bulls put up 49 points on the Yellow Jackets two weeks ago! Lay the points and look for a road rout in this Saturday afternoon match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago White Sox Run Line (+1.5 runs) vs Chicago Cubs, Friday at 4:05 PM ET

The White Sox, of course, are not going to the post-season. The Cubs, very likely, are going to the post-season but they are still in a battle for the Central Division title with the Brewers. That said, the cross-town rival Pale Hose would love nothing more than to prevent the Cubs from getting any closer to that NL Central title! The White Sox will be ready to go here Friday afternoon and they have a red hot Reynaldo Lopez on the mound. The ChiSox are 5-1 in his last 6 starts and the lone loss came by just a single run. That is another reason we like the value here of the +1.5 runs with the home dog. Lopez has allowed just 2 earned runs TOTAL on only 15 hits in the 27 innings spanning his last 4 starts! He has been piling up strikeouts and the Cubs have never faced it. Now, while it is also true that the White Sox hitters have not faced Cubs starter Jose Quintana, they do know plenty about him as he went to the Cubs from the White Sox last season! Of course Quintana would love to have a good start against his former team but Lopez is even hotter than Quintana right now and we love the home dog value in this match-up. The Cubs are only 6-6 in their last 12 games but 3 of those 6 wins came by just 1 runs so, at -1.5 runs, the Cubbies are just 3-9 their last 12 games! Bet the White Sox on the run line (+1.5 runs) in afternoon action Friday

Temple Owls (-) over Tulsa Golden Hurricane at 7:30 PM ET Thursday - Temple off of the big win at Maryland while Tulsa continues to struggle with too many turnovers on offense. Some strong angles support a play on the Owls here. The Golden Hurricane have gone 1-9 ATS when they an underdog versus a team with a losing record that is off of a SU win by 10 or more points. That system fits perfectly with Temple just 1-2 SU on the season but off of a blowout win over the Terrapins. Also, the Owls are 10-0 ATS when they are facing a team that is off of a SU loss as a favorite. Tulsa was favored last week but lost at home versus Arkansas State so that system is also set up perfectly here. We also like the fact that Temple is on a 7-1 ATS run in games against teams with a losing record while the Golden Hurricane have a 1-6 ATS mark in games against teams with a losing record. Long-term the Owls are on a 30-13 ATS run and we expect them to continue their run as a "covering machine" with a very manageable line posted on this Thursday night home game. Taking the best four systems / angles above it combines for a 32-3 (91%) mark in favor of the home favorite. Lay the points with Temple

ASA PLAY ON 9* Tampa Bay Rays Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Texas Rangers, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

This one has the makings of a complete mound mismatch. The Rays are 7-0 in Blake Snell's last 7 starts and all 7 wins have come by 2 or more runs. That is why, though we would never lay -200 on the money line, we're very comfortable laying the small juice on the run line here in a game where the likelihood of a win by 2 or more runs is strong. Snell is 7-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his 8 starts since the All Star break and he has held hitters to a .183 batting average on the season! As for the Rangers Yovani Gallardo, he has a 6.67 ERA on the season. Plus he has been especially bad under the lights! In evening games Gallardo has an 8.32 ERA and opponents have hit .319 against him. Surprisingly the Rangers have won a fair share of games with Gallardo on the mound but that hasn't been due to his pitching form! Also, Texas has lost 4 of his last 6 starts and all 4 defeats came by 2 or more runs. The Rangers, overall, are 3-8 their last 11 games and 7 of the 8 losses came by 2 or more runs. The Rays, overall, are 21-5 their last 26 games and 17 of the 21 wins came by 2 or more runs. All signs point to another big win tonight! Lay the 1.5 runs on the run line here and look for a road rout. Bet the Rays on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Tuesday

ASA 8* PLAY ON Indianapolis +6 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is an overreaction to week 1 game in our opinion.  The Skins are a middle of the pack type team that looked great last week @ Arizona.  They played a near perfect game in their 24-6 win dominating the stat sheet as well.  That result has now pushed this line higher than it should be in our opinion.  The Colts actually looked solid at home last week vs a now 2-0 Cincinnati team.  The final score was 34-23 in favor of the Bengals but the score was a bit misleading as Indy was down 27-23 late in the game driving for the winning score when Cincy returned a fumble 83 yards for the clincher.  The Colts actually had more yardage in that game as well.  That tight loss looks better as well after we saw Cincinnati handle Baltimore rather easily on Thursday night.  While the Colts do have some holes to fill on their roster, it’s quite obvious that having Andrew Luck back at QB makes a huge difference.  He was 39 for 53 for 319 yards last week.  On top of that, when Luck is starting QB, Colts are 23-5 SU / 22-6 ATS when coming off SU loss – if dog off SU loss Luck is 10-1 ATS.  We think this is a game that will go to the wire and the points are the way to go.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Philadelphia -3 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’re getting value with the Eagles here after TB opened the season with a shocker @ New Orleans last week.  Tampa won 48-40 as a 10-point dog.  Journeyman QB Fitzpatrick looked like Tom Brady throwing for 417 yards on just 21 completions (20 yards per completion!).  The Saints defense was simply atrocious last week allowing TB 8.5 yards per play.  Fitzpatrick is a journeyman for a reason.  He has some great games often followed up by a not so great game.  In fact, when Fitzpatrick comes off a win as an underdog, he is just 1-10 SU the following game.  He also had a lifetime record of 49-70-1 in his 120 career starts so let’s not overreact to the Bucs offensive output last week.  Plus now they run into one of the top defenses in the NFL who held a potent Atlanta offense to just 12 points in the opener.  Speaking of that game, it was the NFL opener last Thursday to the Eagles have had plenty of extra time to get ready for this one.  Philly will start Nick Foles at QB again this week as Carson Wentz isn’t quite ready.  That’s fine with us as we’ll take the Super Bowl winning QB from last year over Fitzpatrick any day.  The Eagles showed they could get it done on the road last year with a 6-2 SU & ATS record with their only outright losses coming @ Seattle and @ KC.  Getting the superior team, with the MUCH better defense, off extra rest, laying just a FG is a gift in our opinion.  Tampa comes back to earth this week and Philly wins by double digits. 

ASA 8* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -4 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is a huge game for Pitt at home after playing Cleveland to a tie last week.  That result was very deceiving as the Steelers outgained the Browns by 145 yards but were -5 in turnovers.  The fact that they were even able to pull off a tie was a near miracle based on the turnover margin.  KC is on the opposite end in this game.  They went out west and upset the Chargers 38-28.  However they were very fortunate just as Cleveland was.  KC was outgained by 180 yards but the Chiefs took advantage of a +2 turnover margin.  Now they travel east this week after going west last week.  Definitely a tough travel spot for Kansas City.  Pittsburgh has dominated this series as of late going 3-0 the last 2 seasons vs the Chiefs.  The Steelers won twice at KC and their home game vs KC was an easy 43-14 win.  Pitt has outgained the Chiefs 1265 to 835 in those 3 games.  Tomlin is 10-1 SU in home openers and the Steelers can’t afford a loss here and drop well behind Cincinnati whose already 2-0.  The Steelers cruise in this one.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10 PM ET: Game #205

Tremendous line value here. When you look at the fact that Washington was roughly a "pick'em" in their match-up against Auburn to open up the season and the fact that those same Tigers are now a double digit favorite this weekend over LSU, you can see why perceived value here with the Huskies in the 5-point range is certainly more than just perception! The point being that Utah is really not close to the level of the Tigers of Auburn and yet the pricing here is really not that much different. This has led to exceptional line value here on a Washington team that very nearly did (and arguably should of) beat Auburn in that season opening game in a "neutral" site game at Atlanta, Georgia. We like the fact that the Huskies returned most of their starters (including on defense) from last season's team while Utah lost most of their starters on defense. The Utes are 2-0 on the season but they've played two weak teams and they barely escaped at Northern Illinois last week. They had a late field goal and a interception return for a TD in a truly unimpressive 17-6 victory over the Huskies. They face much tougher "Huskies" this week and, unlike the Utes, Washington has already faced tougher competition by virtue of that season opener against Auburn. Being battle-tested by an SEC foe gives the Huskies an additional early season edge over a Utes team whose inexperienced defense is going to spell trouble for Utah fans as they won't be able to stop a potent Washington offense. The Huskies aerial attack, led by senior QB Jake Browning, will dominate here. Washington is on a 9-4 ATS run as road chalk in the PAC-12 and they are also 10-1 SU in their last 11 meetings with Utah. We see every reason to believe that the series dominance continues this weekend! Lay the points and look for a road rout in this Saturday night PAC-12 match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* TCU Horned Frogs (+) over Ohio State Buckeyes, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #204

This is a very skilled TCU offense and, as per usual, the Horned Frogs have a fantastic defense. We're getting line value here because everyone watched TCU "sleepwalk" through the first half of their game with SMU on Friday night last week. The betting public has seen that plus they've also seen Ohio State steamroll to big wins and ultra easy covers in the first two weeks of the season. The key though is that the Buckeyes were roughly a 5-touchdown favorite in each game and they are taking a major step up in level of opposing talent here. Of course Ohio State wants to win every game but one could certainly argue (and be correct in doing so) that this game means even more to TCU. This is absolutely the marquee game of their season outside of their Big 12 action and an upset of the Buckeyes would be huge for the Horned Frogs. We're not necessarily calling for the outright upset here but we certainly expect the Frogs to at least keep this one within 7 points. This game is at AT & T Stadium and of course the TCU campus is in nearby Fort Worth. Ohio State is off of a win over a Big Ten team and is only 6-11 ATS when off of a win in a conference game. TCU is a long-term 20-10 ATS when they are an underdog in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Ryan Day is still filling in on gamedays for coach Urban Meyer (final game of 3-game suspension) and, in addition to all of the factors note above, we also like the edge of Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson over Day in this one on the sidelines Saturday. Grab the points with the hungry underdog in this Saturday evening match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* LSU Tigers (+) over Auburn Tigers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #153

Revenge game for Auburn but, as is so often the case, the emphasis on revenge in the betting marketplace can lead to great value on the other side. Each of the last two meetings between these teams has been decided by 5 or less points. Also, 4 of the last 5 meetings at Auburn have been decided by a TD or less. LSU has had success (other than one blowout loss) at Auburn in recent years and we like the value as this line has crept up into double digits this week. Of course Auburn is a very strong team this season but they very nearly lost to Washington in Week One. Certainly Washington is also a very talented team but the point is that the line on that game was roughly a "pick'em" and now this one is double digits even though Auburn is facing an SEC foe known for giving them a lot of trouble. LSU's defense has done a great job early this season including forcing turnovers and of course they were dominant in that season opening win over Miami. As a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points, LSU has failed to cover just once in their last seven in that role! As a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points, Auburn is on a 2-8 ATS run. Additional big dog value here because last year Auburn blew a 20-point lead and lost to LSU. That means even if Auburn would jump in front in this game LSU has full confidence in their comeback abilities against this team and we expect their tough defense and solid ground game to keep this one close all the way. We'll gladly take the generous points being offered in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.

Georgia State Panthers (+) over Memphis Tigers at 7 PM ET Friday - With Georgia State off of an embarrassing loss at NC State everyone is jumping on Memphis here. That said, value has been created with the big dog as, keep in mind, the Tigers didn't exactly look sharp in their one point loss as a touchdown favorite at Navy last week. In weekday match-ups, Memphis is on a poor 1-7-1 ATS slide as a home favorite and the Tigers certainly are a pricey home favorite in this one. Also, Georgia State is 6-0 ATS when they are an underdog and facing an opponent that lost outright as a favorite in their prior game! The Panthers are also 6-0 ATS when they're facing a non-conference opponent that is off of a SU loss in their prior game. With this line up around 4 touchdowns the value is with the large underdog in this match-up that, just like the favorite, is looking for a better performance this week. Grab the big points with Georgia State

ASA PLAY ON 9* Oakland A's Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Baltimore Orioles, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

Oakland is a perfect 6-0 in Mike Fiers 6 starts since they acquired him from Detroit. Also, each of the last 4 wins have come by a victory margin of at least 2 runs. With Oakland a red hot 7-2 in their last 9 games and all 7 wins having come by a victory margin of no less than 2 runs, the A's are offering great value on the run line in this match-up. Of course Baltimore has been at the other end of the spectrum as their awful season simply can't end soon enough. Not only are the Orioles an ugly 1-8 in their 9 games heading into this match-up, 6 of the 8 losses have come by a margin of at least 2 runs. Baltimore will have Alex Cobb on the mound for this one. Though he has pitched a little better of late it is still hard to ignore the fact that, prior to winning Cobb's most recent home start, the O's were 0-9 this season in his starts at Camden Yards! Also, the Orioles bullpen is one of the worst in the majors while the A's bullpen is one of the best. Lay the 1.5 runs on the run line here and look for a road rout. Bet the A's on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Tuesday

ASA 8* PLAY ON Oakland +5 over LA Rams, Monday at 10:20 PM ET

We have a feeling this game is a meeting of underrated (Oakland) vs overrated (LA Rams) and the line reflects that in our opinion.  This line is Oakland +4 to +4.5 as we write this which means if this game was in LA the line would be Rams -11 or -12 which is ridiculous.  For perspective, the Rams were favored by more than 7.5 only once all last season (vs Houston late in the year after Texans had all their injuries and were getting creamed every week).  The Rams are have the lowest odds of any team in the NFC to reach the Super Bowl.  Talk about overreacting to last season.  Let’s not forget just 2 years ago the Rams were a bad team and couldn’t score (last in the NFL at 14 PPG).  Last year they took a monumental leap forward winning 11 games and leading the NFL in scoring at 29 PPG.  We expect some regression from them this season.  They may start slow as well with QB Goff and RB Gurley sitting out the entire pre-season.  We see this as a similar situation to Atlanta 2 years ago when the Falcons averaged a whopping 34 PPG and then came back to earth last year at 21 PPG.  The Raiders are sort of the flip side of the LA Rams.  Two years ago Oakland was a playoff team.  Last year injuries caught up to them including QB Carr who was banged up all year, and they won just 6 games.  We expect new coach Jon Gruden will have his team sky high here playing the underappreciated card.  Gruden is a very good tactician and his team will be prepared well.  This is no lower tier team we’re talking about here.  They have weapons offensively at WR & RB and Carr was great two years ago.  He’ll be much better this year, especially early in the season, while he stays healthy.  His offensive line was great in 2016 and underperformed last year so we expect them to be solid this year.  Monday Night underdogs in week 1 of the season are 34-16 ATS since 1980 and Monday Night HOME DOGS are 15-5 ATS in week 1 of the season.  We think Oakland has a great shot at the outright win here and a loss by a FG still gets us a cover.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Tampa Bays Run Line (+1.5 runs) vs Cleveland Indians, Monday at 7:10 PM ET

The Rays are one of the hottest teams inn baseball and are still mathematically alive in the wild card race. The Indians have very nearly clinched the AL Central Division and are very nearly locked in to being the #3 seed in the AL for this post-season. The point is that Tampa Bay is arguably the more motivated team here and we like them as a home dog in this spot. We also like the added value of the Rays on the run line at +1.5 runs. That way if TB loses a tight one by just a run we still cash our ticket and the current price (-130 range) makes it very economical to grab the Rays on the run line. The Indians are just 4-5 their last 9 games and one of those wins came by just a single run so they are only 3-6 their last 9 games on the run line at -1.5 runs. The Rays have won 7 of their last 8 games and their starter, Castillo, will only go an inning or two tonight but these "bullpen games" for Tampa have been very successful this season. Their bullpen arms are rested too after Chirinos gave them over 6 innings yesterday plus Snell gave them a great start on Friday. As for the Indians Kluber, he certainly has great numbers on the season but he is 9-7 in night games compared to 9-0 in day games this season. Also, he has a 3.67 ERA in road starts compared to a 2.05 ERA in home starts. The last time he started at Tropicana Field he gave up 3 earned runs and the Rays (other than one bad game at Toronto) have limited their opponents to just 2.6 runs per game in their other 8 games dating back to the last day of August. Look for a low scoring game where the +1.5 runs offers phenomenal value. Grab the run line here and look for a home dog upset. Bet the Rays on the run line (+1.5 runs) in early evening action Monday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas +3 over Carolina, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Carolina Panthers made some changes in the offseason and we’re not sure they were good ones. After ranking 24th in offensive efficiency in 2016, then moving up to 9th, the Panthers decided to bring in a new offensive coordinator? Carolina recycled longtime NFL coach Norv Turner but has the game evolved into something he’s not? Looking back we see Norv Turner’s last two offensive units in Minnesota ranked 25th or worse in total yards per game and before that his Browns offense finished 18th. The last year he was with the Chargers they were 31st. Last year the Panthers were 16th in total yards per game (average) and 9th in OEFF. We really don’t think this will be a good fit for QB Cam Newton either. The Panthers had a positive point differential last year at +1.8PPG. The Panthers defense was very good again last year finishing with our 9th ranked defensive efficiency unit while allowing just 21PPG. In the late stages of last season though this defensive unit faltered a little allowing 25.4PPG in their last seven contests. Dallas had a down season a year ago and a lot of that had to do with injuries and suspensions. The Cowboys were slightly better than the Panthers in total yards per game and 10th in OEFF. That was without RB Elliott for the first four games of the season. The Boys finished last season strong with wins in 3 of four games, scoring 30+ in two of those. In terms of DEFF the Cowboys ranked a poor 25th but also only allowed 20.1PPG which was top 10. Dallas is on a 6-1 ATS run on the road and we like a close game throughout.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State Spartans (-) over Arizona State Sun Devils, Saturday at 10:45 ET: Game #393

While Arizona State did get a big win last week it came against a UTSA team that is one of the most inexperienced in the nation this season. That said it was not a huge surprise that the Sun Devils won big in coach Herm Edwards debut. However, now Arizona State faces a much tougher opponent and we were looking for an early season spot to fade coach Edwards and this is it. Edwards has to be one of the most baffling coaching hires for a Power 5 conference in recent memory. He had been out of coaching for so long and away from the college game for even longer. That said, beating the Roadrunners is one thing but trying to avoid a bad loss at the hands of a ranked team that is one of the most experienced teams in the nation is another matter entirely. Michigan State was not overly impressive last week but Utah State is a quality opponent. We also like the fact that the Spartans have a bye week on deck. That said, though a late night game in the southwestern US heat may not be the most appealing for MSU, the fact is they are geared up and ready to leave it all on the field knowing their Big Ten opener is still two weeks away. Michigan State will be able to establish the run and that will open things up for QB Brian Lewerke whom is the type of mobile QB that gives defenses fits. The Sun Devils defense lost most of their starters from last season and that is bad news against a Spartans offense that returned nearly all of its starters from last year. This is a big play on a team (MSU) with plenty of continuity from last season and a big play against a team (ASU) that is going through a coaching change and still trying to install new schemes and adjust to a lot of new players in key roles as well. A weak team like the Roadrunners was unable to expose any of that due to the talent gap between the teams but Michigan State is going to exploit all of these Arizona State weaknesses in a huge way and we get line value since the Spartans are on the road and that is (as of Friday morning) keeping this line below a 7. Lay the points and expect a dominating road win in this Saturday late night match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Virginia Cavaliers (+) over Indiana Hoosiers, Saturday at 7:30 ET: Game #369

Rain is expected in Bloomington all day Saturday and particularly through the evening hours. We expect these conditions to maximize the importance of the ground game in this match-up and that gives a huge edge to the Cavaliers. Not only did Indiana have one of the worst rushing offenses in the nation last season, Virginia has a true dual-threat QB that will give the Hoosiers run defense some major problems Saturday. Signal-caller Bryce Perkins is the Cavs key weapon in this game as he can beat defenses with his legs and that was evident in Virginia's win over Richmond Saturday. Sure the Spiders are not a powerhouse football team but the Cavs were favored by 2 touchdowns and won by 4 TDs in a dominating effort that saw Perkins talents on full display. Though Indiana is also off of a week 1 win, the Hoosiers allowed 170 rushing yards in their win while the Cavs allowed just 34 yards on the ground! Cavaliers head coach Bronco Mendenhall is in his 3rd season now with Virginia and that is the year when a coach tends to be at the "tipping point" with a program where he gets them over the hump and we feel that is the case with this current Cavs team. In terms of technical support here, Indiana is on a 4-9 ATS run in home games while Virginia is on a 6-3 ATS run in September games under Mendenhall. We'll gladly take the available points as a road upset is likely in this Saturday evening match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Baylor Bears (-) over UTSA Roadrunners, Saturday at 7 ET: Game #349

Last season the Bears got embarrassed by losing at home to UTSA in a game in which Baylor was favored by double digits. Now it is time for payback. Baylor is stronger this season while the Roadrunners are much weaker and, in fact, are one of the most inexperienced teams in the nation coming into this season. That inexperienced had a lot to do with the Roadrunners getting blasted by 42 points last week in a game in which they were only a 17 point underdog. Things won't get any easier in this week as, even though UTSA is at home, they are hosting a Texas team that is happy to make the trip down to San Antonio for this road game. In fact you can expect plenty of Baylor fans to be in attendance for this game and this looks like a very down season for Roadrunners football after they lost nearly their entire offensive unit from last season. Also, the defensive was heavily impacted by graduation losses plus they have a new defensive coordinator as their prior one was grabbed by Alabama! The Runners will get better as the season goes on but lack of experience and all kinds of adjustments early in the season for this team on both sides of the ball means they don't have the cohesion to compete with a Power 5 team like Baylor that has revenge on its minds! The Roadrunners defense was shredded last week (including on the ground) and the Bears ran for nearly 300 yards last week plus threw for over 300. They are set at QB with both Brewer and McClendon both being very capable QBs. Baylor is 11-3 ATS in road games with a total set between 49.5 and 56 points. UTSA is 1-4 ATS in home games with a total set between 49.5 and 52 points. Lay the points and expect a road rout in this Saturday evening match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Buffalo Bulls (+) over Temple Owls, Saturday at 3:30 ET: Game #345

Many will be looking for a bounce back from Temple this week. But this is an Owls team that didn't just lose as a double digit favorite last week, they actually got beaten much worse than what the scoreboard showed. Temple lost by 2 points points to Villanova but it could (should!) of been much worse as the Wildcats outgained the Owls by 154 yards in that game! Though the most recent meeting was 2011 you can bet that the Bulls are aware of their recent history as they've lost the last two match-ups by a combined score of 76 to 0. Of course that was before Lance Leipold was the head coach at Buffalo. In fact, at that time he was still in the midst of a run that saw him win 5 championships with UW-Whitewater's Division III program. He is a fantastic coach that, now in his 4th season with the Bulls, has this Buffalo team poised to be a bowl team this year. That likely would have happened last season (6-6 year) were it not for QB injuries. The Bulls 6 losses last season came by a total of just 29 points and we like the value of the points being offered here in a game in which Buffalo (returning a lot of key experience) has a great shot at the outright upset on the road. Temple returned only 5 starters on each side of the ball and that showed in their loss to Villanova. Now they face a Bulls team that is confident after a blowout win in week one and is ready now for a signature road win. The Owls are on a 6-15 ATS run in games against MAC foes. Look for the Bulls to improve to 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they've been an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Grab the points with the road dog in this Saturday afternoon match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* SMU Mustangs (+) over TCU Horned Frogs, Friday at 8 ET: Game #302

The Horned Frogs are over-priced here plain and simple. The markets are over-adjusted here because TCU won huge in week 1 while SMU got thoroughly embarrassed in week 1. Keep in mind the Frogs played Southern University. Also, even though the Mustangs got crushed by a North Texas team that is on the rise, SMU did score well in the 4th quarter and it is that type of late game push that is likely to occur again here should TCU get a big lead. That is because the Horned Frogs have a huge game against Ohio State on deck. There is no doubt they're peeking ahead to the match-up. Also note that TCU is 1-4 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points while SMU was on a 7-2 ATS run in September games prior to the embarrassing loss to the Mean Green. They will make up for it here at home against their Dallas rivals! We're calling for the Mustangs to stay well within the three touchdown outlay here and to lose this one by no more than a range of 14 to 17 points! Grab the big points with SMU Friday evening