Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-14-22 | Richmond v. College of Charleston -2.5 | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
#862 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* College of Charleston -2.5 over Richmond, Monday at 7 PM ET - Richmond is a bit overvalued in our opinion due to their late season spurt last year. They finished the regular season 6th in the A10 but made a run in the conference tourney, won it, and went to the Big Dance where they beat Iowa in the first round. Problem is, they lose most of their key players from that team including 4 of their top 5 scorers. Thus far the Spiders have played 2 home games beating VMI, who is picked to finish last in the Southern Conference, and Northern Iowa who won the MVC last year but lost 4 of their top 5 players including conference player of the year AJ Green. Now they go on the road for the first time vs an undervalued C of C team. The Cougars are a deep team that goes 10 deep and plays at a hectic pace (2nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season). They return a number of key players from last year’s 17-15 team and are picked by many, including us, as one of the top teams in the Colonial this season. They just played #1 ranked North Carolina on the road on Friday giving the Heels all they could handle. C of C led by 7 at halftime and actually outrebounded UNC including an impressive 15 offensive boards. The Cougars ranked 10th nationally in offensive rebounding last season and should dominate the glass tonight. In their 16 point loss vs UNC, the Heels shot lights out at 60% and attempted 38 FT’s to just 9 for Charleston yet the Cougs were still leading midway through the 2nd half on the road. In their other game this season, Charleston beat Chattanooga by at, a team who won the SOCON last season (lost to Illinois by 1 point in the NCAA tourney) and is expected to finish near the top again this year. We’ll lay the small number with College of Charleston at home tonight. |
|||||||
11-12-22 | Kansas v. Texas Tech -3.5 | Top | 28-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
#158 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -3.5 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Tech. They sit with a 4-5 record and need to win 2 of their last 3 games for bowl eligibility. They are catching Kansas coming off a huge home win vs Oklahoma State which made the Jayhawks bowl eligible for the first time since 2008. The celebrated as if they’d won the National Championship and now KU must go on the road where they’ve struggled. We expect a letdown here now that Kansas has achieved their goal of making it to a bowl game. They are 1-2 SU in Big 12 road games losing by double digits to both Oklahoma and Baylor (outgained by a combined 400+ yards in those games) and their lone win was @ WVU in OT way back on September 10th and we have the Mountaineers the lowest rated team in the Big 12. Last week’s 37-16 win over a really banged up OSU team wasn’t quite as impressive as it might seem. The Cowboys played without their starting QB along with a number of other key starters on the shelf as well. A week earlier OSU lost @ KSU 48-0. They simply have too many injuries to compete at a high level right now. It looks like KU starting QB Daniels will remain out meaning back up Bean will get his 4th straight start. Prior to last week’s win, Bean started 2 games on the road (Baylor & Oklahoma) and the Jayhawks were down 20+ points in the 2nd half of each game and made a late comeback making each look more respectable than they actually were losing by 10 & 12 points. Tech is much better than their 4-5 record. They’ve played very tough with all but one of the Big 12’s top teams and have led in the 2nd half of many of those conference losses. The Red Raiders have played the 4th toughest schedule in the nation yet their YPG differential is an impressive +89 YPG (Kansas is -1 YPG on the season). Their offense is always potent, however the Tech defense is vastly improved this year allowing 373 YPG after giving up over 400 YPG last season. They hold a solid edge on that side of the ball with the KU defense giving up 435 YPG. The Raiders did lose QB Morton to an injury last week, however he was their 3rd string QB to start the season and was forced into action when starter Shough and back up Smith went down. They are both back so whoever starts we’re fine at QB. We like the value here as Texas Tech was favored by 19 AT Kansas last year and won in blowout fashion. We understand KU is improved but that is a huge swing in the pointspread in just 1 year. Tech is 21-2 SU in this series and we look for a win and cover on Saturday. |
|||||||
11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 just met on October 30th in Atlanta with the Falcons going off as a 4.5 point favorite. The Birds won the game 37-34 in OT but were outgained on both a YPG (+72) and YPP (+0.4) basis in that game. Now they are on the road and laying 2.5 points just 2 weeks later. Based on the line on October 30th, the Panthers should be a slight favorite here but they are getting nearly a FG. We like the value with Carolina in this one. Panther QB Walker had 317 yards passing, a career high, vs a leaky Atlanta defense that allowed 6.1 YPP (31st in the NFL). He should have plenty of confidence in this rematch just 2 weeks later. In his lone home start this season, Walker and the Panthers rolled over the Bucs 21-3 and it wasn’t a fluke as they outgained Tampa by +2.0 yards per play in that win. They take on an Atlanta team that is 0-4 SU on the road this year, getting outgained in each game by a combined 592 yards or an average of -148 YPG. Despite their 4-4 record, the Falcons have been outgained by an average of -0.8 YPP which ranks them 29th in the NFL. Carolina ranks 18th in YPP margin at -0.11. Atlanta has been a dog in every game but one this season (first match up with Carolina) and now they are laying points on the road for just the 4th time since the start of the 2019 season. We’ll take the better defense (Panthers 17th in YPP defense, Atlanta 31st) as a home dog in prime time. |
|||||||
11-09-22 | Jazz v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 125-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #544 Atlanta Hawks -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:40 PM ET - The Hawks have strung together three quality wins over the Knicks, Pelicans and most recently the Bucks. The win over Milwaukee was significant considering Trae Young did not play. He is expected to be in the lineup tonight versus the Jazz. Atlanta is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +5PPG differential. The Hawks were 27-11 SU a year ago at home with the exact same +/- of +5PPG. As a home favorite the Hawks are 22-17 ATS their last 39 and they win those games by an average of +6.1PPG. Utah has certainly been one of the biggest surprises early on as nobody predicted them to be 9-3 SU at this point after trading away Mitchell and Gobert. The Jazz are 4-3 SU on the road but only one of those four road wins came against a team with a winning record (6-5 Clippers). Utah isn’t great as a road dog with a 7-7-1 ATS record dating back to the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -6.9PPG. Lastly, we like to fade a team like the Jazz off a HUGE 139-point offensive showing and win over a hated rival like the Lakers. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency numbers but the situation and setting favors the Hawks. |
|||||||
11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
#474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints +1.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - MNF road favorites are 0-2 ATS this season and just 2-9 ATS since the start of last season. We like this match up for the Saints and feel they are undervalued due to their 3-5 SU record. They are better than that record indicates. They’ve been quite unlucky in the turnover category this season ranking dead last in the NFL turnover margin at -9. Meanwhile, the Ravens have been very fortunate in that category ranking 2nd in the NFL in TO margin at +6. That fact is, teams that win the TO battle for a specific game win close to 80% of the time so the numbers above for the Saints & Ravens have factored in heavily to their current records. In large part because of that Baltimore has played above their estimated win total thus far of 4 (based on advanced stats of each game) and New Orleans has played below their estimated win total which is also 4. We expect the TO’s to even out so to speak for each team moving forward. The Saints, despite their 3-5 record, are actually 6th in the NFL in YPP margin at +0.64 and the 6 teams ahead of them all have winning records with the exception of SF which is 4-4. The combined record of the 5 teams ahead of the Saints in this key category is 30-10. Baltimore ranks 11th in YPP margin despite their superior record. New Orleans is +75 YPG this season while the Ravens have actually been outgained by about 5 YPG this season. We like the way New Orleans is playing right now outgaining 4 straight opponents including Cincinnati and Seattle who rank 10th and 11th in total offense. The defense is coming off a shutout holding the Raiders scoreless last weekend and they’ve held 3 straight opponents to below their season average in YPG. The offense is humming averaging 31 PPG over their last 4 and they’ve hit at least 399 total yards in 3 of those 4 games. Baltimore’s pass game took a huge hit here with leading receiver TE Andrews declared out so they will have to rely even more on the running game tonight (starting RB Edwards most likely out as well) vs a Saints defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in rush defense. We think the Saints are the better team and getting points at home. Take it. |
|||||||
11-07-22 | Thunder v. Pistons +2 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
#506 ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +2 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are 2-8 SU on the season and off to a disappointing start with their young roster. OKC on the other hand is 4-5 SU and playing above expectations. In this scenario though we have to back the home underdog with Detroit. The Pistons are coming off a horrible home loss to the Cavs on Friday night after winning their previous home game over the Warriors by 14. Sandwiched between those two home games were a pair of losses in Milwaukee. OKC is also off a pair of losses after winning 4 straight. The Thunder are 1-3 SU on the road this season and if we look at a larger sample size, we find they were 12-29 SU away from home last year. In those road contests in 202122 they had a net differential of minus -9.8PPG which was one of the worst average W/L margins in the NBA. This is more of a play against the Thunder who find themselves in an unfamiliar role as a road favorite which has happened once since 2020. The Pistons have a solid cover rate as a home dog at 57.9% since the start of last season. |
|||||||
11-06-22 | Titans v. Chiefs -12 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
#472 ASA top play on 10* KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -12 vs Tennessee Titans, 8:20 PM ET - The Titans 5-2 record is very misleading for several reasons: They have been outgained in every game but one and have a negative Net Yardage differential of -0.6Yards Per Play. Their 5 wins have come against teams with a combined 13-22 record. Their two losses to winning teams the Bills (by 34 and Giants by 1-point). They were +10 at Buffalo (similar to KC) and lost by 34. KC 4-3 ATS last seven off a bye with a +14PPG differential. Titans QB Tannehill is ? with an ankle injury. If he can’t go that means rookie QB Malik Willis will start, and he was 6 of 10 last week for 55 yards with an INT and is not a threat in the passing game. Tennessee got a huge rushing game from Derrick Henry last week but that was against the Texans defense that is last in the NFL in rushing defense. That won’t happen here against a Chiefs defense that is 3rd in the NFL in rushing D at 92YPG allowed. Kansas City and Mahomes should put up huge numbers with their 2nd ranked passing offense (296PYPG) versus the 24th ranked Titans pass D (254.7PYPG). |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Wake Forest -3.5 v. NC State | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -3.5 over NC State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wake is coming off a horrible performance @ Louisville last Saturday and we like them to bounce back in a big way here. Last week the Deacs were favored by -3 @ Louisville and lost the game 48-21. The yardage in the game was dead even however WF had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game, including 6 in the third quarter alone that led to the Cards scoring 35 points in that quarter. Four of Louisville’s five TD’s in the third quarter came on 2 pick 6’s, a 9 yard TD drive and a 33 yard TD drive. It was simply a game where everything went wrong for Wake. Let’s remember prior to that loss, WF was 6-1 on the season with their only loss coming in OT vs Clemson. It was their first road loss of the season after rolling @ Vandy by 20 points and winning @ Florida State by 10. NC State is ranked in the top 25 but they are seriously overvalued right now. That’s because they lost their veteran starting QB Leary three weeks ago and they have not been impressive in their 2 games since he went out. The Wolfpack lost 24-9 @ Syracuse and then last week had to rally from down 21-3 at home vs a bad Virginia Tech team to win 22-21. They made a switch at QB to true freshman Morris last week after getting behind and he rallied them back in his first extended action of the season. This week he’ll be making the first start of his career which is much different that coming in off the bench. Wake has film on the inexperienced starter and we expect him to struggle. The Demon Deacon offense has had all kinds of success vs NC State’s defense averaging 38 PPG over the last 5 meetings and the last 2 years with QB Hartman at the helm they’ve scored 45 and 42 points. NC State has a negative YPP differential on the season and they were outgained in 4 of their 6 games BEFORE QB Leary was injured. Wake is the better team, off a bad loss, with a huge edge at the QB position. Lay the small number. |
|||||||
11-03-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6.5 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and a big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one. |
|||||||
11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State -3 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Coastal steps into this home game with a 7-1 record yet they are underdogs vs the 5-3 App State Mountaineers. We agree and feel ASU is the much better team. We’ve felt Coastal has been overrated most of the season and they are not a 7-1 team. Their most recent home game the Chanticleers were whipped by 28 points vs Old Dominion and Coastal was favored by 12 in that game. That loss was no fluke as a rather average ODU offense put up a ridiculous 10.7 YPP to just 5.6 YPP for CC. The Monarchs destroyed Coastal in the trenches as well averaging over 10 YPC to just 2.1 YPC for the Chanticleers. Last week it looks like Coastal rebounded well beating Marshall but that wasn’t the case as they were again dominated gaining just 271 yards while allowing 407. Marshall turnovers and penalties were key in that win for CC. Now they face an App State team that is among the best rushing teams in the nation and we look for CC to get dominated at the line of scrimmage again. App State has played the tougher schedule facing 2 Power 5 opponents (UNC & Texas A&M) while Coastal hasn’t faced a Power 5 opponent and has a strength of schedule ranking of 121st. Despite that App State has a YPP differential of +1.5 and a YPG differential of +150 compared to CC who sits at +0.2 YPP and +22 YPG. Remember this ASU team took UNC to the wire (lost by 2) and beat Texas A&M on the road. We’ll take the much better team and lay only 3 points here. |
|||||||
11-02-22 | Hornets +6 v. Bulls | Top | 88-106 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +5.5 at Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - Scheduling plays an important part of the equation tonight as the Hornets are rested while Chicago is off a game in Brooklyn last night. Another key factor is the results of both teams previous games. The Hornets are off an embarrassing home loss to the Kings, Chicago is off an upset win over the Nets. Chicago is 0-2 SU/ATS this season when playing the second night of a B2B and have been lost by 5 and 32-points. Dating back to the start of last season, the Bulls are 8-10-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Hornets are 12-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Charlotte is 26-19 ATS their last 45 road games with an average margin of victory of minus -0.7PPG which gets us an easy cover here. One key aspect of this game that clearly favors the Hornets is their 7th best 3-point percentage shooting against a Bulls defense that ranks 29th in defending the 3-point line. Chicago’s starter saw extended minutes last night so fatigue becomes a factor late and the Hornets get a solid cover. |
|||||||
11-02-22 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5.5 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -5.5 over Central Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - NIU is undervalued with a 2-6 record in our opinion. Their starting QB Lombardi has played in only 1 of their 4 conference games and the Huskies won that game 39-10 @ Eastern Michigan. It looks like he’ll be back for this one and NIU is just happy to be at home for once. They have played ONE home game since September 17th and we’re now into November. That one home game was a loss to the MAC’s best team, Toledo, however Lombardi didn’t play and Northern still outgained the Rockets by 75 yards in that loss. Toledo had 2 pick 6’s in the game. NIU has now outgained every conference opponent this year despite only having 1 win in MAC play. CMU is also 1-4 in conference play with their only win coming vs league doormat Akron and by only 7 points. The Chips followed that unimpressive win up by getting smoked by a bad Bowling Green team 34-18. That’s a BG team that had only won 7 of their previous 27 games dating back to 2019. In that game CMU pulled their starting QB Richardson who has been struggling and inserted inexperienced freshman Bauer who played OK. He may start here which would be his first road start ever. At worst, it sounds like they may rotate QB’s here so with Lombardi starting for NIU we have a big advantage under center. The Huskies should control the line of scrimmage here ranking 22nd nationally in rushing and they’ve outrushed all but Vanderbilt and Toledo this season. Central Michigan has solid overall defensive numbers vs the run, however they’ve played a very weak schedule of rush offenses including their 2 most recent games vs Akron (128th rushing) and BG (110th rushing). The one good running team they’ve faced in MAC play was Toledo and the Rockets rolled them for 250+ yards on the ground. We like NIU to win by at least a TD here. |
|||||||
10-31-22 | Hawks +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-139 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The one negative to this wager is the fact the Raptors are off a home loss which we don’t like but the value in the number clearly favors the Hawks. Atlanta is also off a loss in Milwaukee by 8-points 115-123. The Hawks were getting +5.5-points in that game against the 5-0 Bucks who have an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. Now they are catching +4 at Toronto? Another comparison is the Raptors were just-3.5 at home against the 76ers who were playing without Embiid. Both teams have solid spread results when coming off a loss so that’s a wash. Were the Hawks have a big advantage is offensively as they average 1.164-points per possession (8th) compared to the Raptors 1.104PPP which is 24th in the league. Defensively these two teams are relatively even with both giving up around the league average in terms of points per possession. The Hawks have one of the best scoring point guards in the league in Trae Young who could be in line for a big game seeing the Raps just gave up 44-points to the Sixers Maxey. |
|||||||
10-30-22 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 26-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +3.5 over Minnesota Vikings, nday at 1:00 PM ET - The Vikings are seen to have a scheduling advantage here as they are coming off a bye but it’s very minimal at best because Arizona played last Thursday so they’ve had 10 days off as well. The Vikings are 5-1 SU but they’ve been extremely fortunate to get to that mark. They rank 27th in the NFL in YPP differential at -0.67 despite playing an easy schedule (20th SOS thus far). The only teams they’ve faced that currently has a winning records are Philadelphia and the Vikings were dominated in that game (24-7 loss) and Miami (Vikings won by 8) who actually outgained Minnesota by over 100 yards and had to start rookie Thompson at QB. Since getting toasted by KC in the opener, the Cardinals have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents. Their offense has some momentum coming in off a 42 point outburst vs a solid Saints defense and facing a bad Minnesota defense (27th in total defense) we expect the Arizona offense to have a very solid day. That success coincided with the return of their top WR Hopkins who had over 100 yards receiving in his first game back from suspension. QB Murray is very comfortable with him and has much better numbers when Hopkins is on the field. Also home field advantage is limited at best in Arizona games as they are a much better road team than a home team. They have a 10-2 SU regular season road record since the start of last year and as a road underdog the Cards have covered 8 straight as a road dog winning all 8 games OUTRIGHT. We feel Minnesota is overvalued here and getting more than a FG with Arizona is the way to go. |
|||||||
10-29-22 | Missouri +3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri +3.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 4 PM ET - South Carolina is coming off what looks like a solid 30-24 win over Texas A&M in a home night game last week. The fact is, the Gamecocks were outgained by 112 yards in that win but got out to a 17-0 lead in the 1st quarter and it took them 19 yards of TOTAL offense to get out to that 17 point lead. SC returned the opening kick for a TD, then kicked a FG (after 0 yards gained) and scored a TD (after 19 yards gained) following 2 A&M turnovers. Then on top of that, A&M lost their starting QB King with the Aggies making a comeback cutting the lead to 3 and were left with their 3rd string QB who is a freshman from that point on. South Carolina is on a 4 game winning streak which is giving us some value here. Last week’s win was deceiving as we mentioned, and prior to that they topped Kentucky who was playing without their starting QB and probable first round draft pick Will Levis. Prior to that they had beaten FCS South Carolina State and Charlotte who ranks among the worst teams in FBS. Not a great 4 game run despite them winning all 4. Meanwhile Mizzou has showed some really solid play this year when stepping up in class. They gave Georgia all they could handle actually leading the Bulldogs 22-12 into the 4th quarter before UGA scored 2 TD’s to win 26-22 (SOUTH CARO LOST TO UGA 48-7 at home). The Tigers went to Florida and lost by a TD but outgained the Gators by 73 yards and they lost in OT by 3 points @ Auburn outgaining the host in that game as well. Missouri brings in a high level defense ranking in the top 20 nationally in both YPG and YPP allowed. They also run the ball well (157 YPG) and they are facing a Gamecock defense that ranks 98th defending the run. This sets up as a letdown afternoon game for SC after their rousing atmosphere last Saturday evening vs A&M. They are 1-7-1 ATS following an ATS win and we feel Missouri is actually the better team here. Take the points. |
|||||||
10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots -8 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -8 over Chicago, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Pats are better than their 3-3 record as they rank 7th in the NFL in YPP differential. They’ve outgained 4 of their last 6 opponents with Green Bay and Miami their only opponents to outgain them. Starting QB Mac Jones looks like he will return tonight, however if for some reason he does not back up QB Bailey Zappe has really played well and last week he put up over 300 yards passing and completed over 70% of his passes. Chicago will be in trouble offensively here vs a Patriot defense that has allowed 15 points over their last 2 games. They’ve outscored their last 2 opponents 67-15 and the defense has allowed just 4.9 YPP over their last 2 games vs Detroit (ranked 2nd in total offense) and Cleveland (ranked 5th in total offense). Now they face a Chicago team ranked 28th in total offense so we just don’t see the Bears doing much on that side of the ball. Chicago has scored 12 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games and the only 2 games they topped that number was vs Houston (ranked 31st in total defense) and Minnesota (ranked 26t in total defense). The Patriots have scored 24 or more in 4 straight games and that’ll be enough to get this cover. Belichick is 62-32 ATS in October and we look for his defense to own Chicago and QB Fields in this game. Lay the points. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Chiefs v. 49ers +1 | Top | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
#470 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers +1 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We love looking strong and hard at defensive home dogs and we have one here. The 49ers defense has been outstanding this season ranking 1st in total defense and 2nd in passing defense, rushing defense, and scoring defense. They are allowing opposing teams to run just 5.3 PLAYS in the red zone this season which is tops in the NFL. San Fran is also getting some reinforcements back on that side of the ball (DE Joey Bosa included) after a number of players missed last week. The Niners are also coming off an embarrassing loss @ Atlanta last week but it was a tough situational spot playing back to back Sundays on the east coast AND the injury situation for SF last week was not good. Offensively they get LT Williams, one of the best in the NFL, back this week which is huge. They also picked up RB McCaffrey from Carolina and he will be in the line up this week, especially in red zone situations. QB Garoppolo and company should have plenty of success vs a banged up KC secondary that has allowed 75% of their opponents yards to come through the air (most in the NFL) and has given up at least 2 TD passes in every game this season, they only NFL defense to do that. SF comes in undervalued with a 3-3 record but they’ve been a bit unlucky with injuries this season. The fact is, they have the 2nd best YPP differential in the NFL behind only Buffalo so they are absolutely better than their record. They are getting a KC team here coming off their huge game vs Buffalo and in their most recent 2 road games the Chiefs lost @ Indianapolis and beat a down Tampa team despite getting outgained by 1.0 YPP in that game. Under head coach Shanahan, the 49ers have covered the spread 15 of the last 20 times they’ve been an underdog. We like them on Sunday. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Boise State +2.5 v. Air Force | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
#407 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State +2.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We love the way Boise is trending here after QB Bachmeier decided to transfer and they’ve been starting Green at QB. The defense was always very good, they just couldn’t get anything going on offense with Bachmeier under center. If we throw out their FCS game vs UT Martin, the offense under Bachmeier averaged 19 PPG and just 268 total YPG. In their 2 games since Green took over they have crushed San Diego State and Fresno State, the Broncos are averaging 37.5 PPG and 446 total YPG. As we stated, the defense has been great ranking 2nd in the nation in YPG (235) allowed and 5th in YPP allowed (4.1). The Boise rush defense has been top notch allowing just 101 YPG on 3.0 YPC which is key vs an Air Force offense thar runs the ball an average of 59 times per game (2nd most in the nation). Boise has also had two full weeks to prepare for this offense coming off last week’s bye. Air Force is coming off a big win over UNLV but we feel they are trending downward. The Rebels had a number of injuries last week including their starting QB who didn’t play in the game giving AF a big advantage. In their 2 games without their starting QB Brumfield, UNLV has lost by a combined score of 82-14 which tells you how important he is. Prior to last week, the Falcons struggled to beat a down Navy team 13-10 and lost to Utah State with USU playing their back up QB. While Boise is off their bye, AF is playing for the 8th consecutive week. Undervalued vs Overvalued here in our opinion. Take the dog Boise State. |
|||||||
10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 3 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Thursday, 7:30 PM ET - This is a really good spot to back the 76ers who have a game under their belt against the Bucks playing their first game which is also on the road. Not too mention, the Sixers are off a loss to the Celtics in their season opener on Tuesday night. Philly has been solid off a loss with a 33-28-2 ATS record dating back to the start of 2020 and they’ve won those games by an average of +4PPG. Philly has the 4th best average Margin of Victory at home since 2020 at +6PPG. The Bucks may struggle out of the gate this season with All-Star Khris Middleton sidelined for 4-6 weeks and now Pat Connaughton out for this game. You may be surprised to know the Bucks were not a good road underdog last season with a 6-11 ATS record and a negative differential of minus -9PPG. The road team won all three meetings a year ago but that changes tonight. Lay the short number with Philly. |
|||||||
10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
#275 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos +4.5 over LA Chargers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Denver steps into this one with a 2-3 SU record with their 3 losses coming by a combined 13 points and 2 of those losses coming by a FG or less. Their overall offensive numbers are decent rating as average in both YPP and YPG. The problem is they’ve struggled in the redzone and their efficiency numbers (1 point for every 22.9 yards) is at the bottom of the NFL. We don’t expect that to continue. We look for those numbers to start to even out and Denver will put points on the board. This looks like a game where that may happen as the Broncos have had 11 days off to make some changes after playing on Thursday night and they are facing an LAC defense that ranks 31st in scoring. LA just allowed their last 3 opponents (Jax, Houston, and Cleveland) to score 38, 24, and 28 points. The Chargers offense has put up some good numbers but 3 of the 5 opponents they’ve faced rank 25th, 27th, and 30th in scoring defense and 4 of the 5 stop units they’ve played rank outside the top half in DVOA per Football Outsiders. The one top 10 defense they’ve faced was Jacksonville and the Chargers were held to 10 points in that game. Now we don’t expect anything like that tonight, but Denver’s defense is the best LAC has faced ranking 3rd in total defense and 4th in defensive DVOA. They also rank 3rd in the NFL in pass defense which matches up nicely with the Chargers pass heavy offense. LA is banged up on the offensive line with 3 starters potentially out and at WR as Allen will most likely sit again. In a division game we like the much better defense in what we think will be a tight game. Getting more than the key numbers of 3 and 4, it’s a go for us on Denver +4.5. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
#274 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -6 or -6.5 over Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - This is a rough situational spot for Dallas as they played the Rams on the west coast last weekend and now they are in Philly on the east coast this weekend. It’s also their 3rd road trip in the last 4 weeks. It looks like Dallas QB Prescott will be sidelined again for this game leaving it up to back up Cooper Rush who was solid the first 2 weeks but struggled a bit last week in LA as teams have more film on him. Rush threw for only 102 yards last week, had 10 first downs, and Dallas only averaged 4.5 YPP. They picked up a defensive score which helped them to a 22-10 win. So just 14 points on offense which won’t get it done here vs a potent Eagle attack that ranks 2nd in total offense and 5th in scoring. The Dallas defense has been superb this year, however they haven’t faced a top notch attack yet. The offenses they’ve faced so far this season rank 20th, 21st, 22nd, 25th and 26th in total offense. They’ve faced one mobile QB this season (NYG Daniel Jones) but Philadelphia QB Hurts has been playing at a completely different level and we look for the Cowboy defense to struggle here. Despite their 4-1 record, Dallas has been pretty luck as they are actually getting outgained by -13 YPG and outrushed 4.2 YPC to 4.7 YPC. The Eagles are every bit as good as their 5-0 record outgaining opponents by +121 YPG with the 2nd best point differential in the NFL behind only Buffalo. The Eagles are definitely the better team here, in the much better situation, and will be motivated after getting rolled by Dallas twice last season. Anything under a TD we’ll lay in this one. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | 49ers v. Falcons +4.5 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
#266 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +4.5 over San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - A terrible spot here for the Niners. They played last week @ Carolina and came away with a 37-15 win and had to stay on the east coast this week taking on Atlanta. Their 37 points last week was a bit deceiving as they had a defensive TD and a 3 yard drive late in the game when Carolina was shut out on downs. The defense was successful as well facing a bad Carolina offense that ranks 30th in the NFL averaging 4.8 YPP. This week will be tougher for this SF team facing a better Atlanta offense with a defense that is really banged up. 3 of their 4 starting defensive linemen including Bosa, their top LB, and a few DB’s, including Mosely their top corner, all out here. The SF defense is #1 in the NFL vs the run this season, however with all the injuries up front they will take a step back here vs an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in the NFL averaging almost 170 YPG on the ground. The Niners have also had problems with mobile QB’s this season. They’ve faced just 2 QB’s with similar mobility to Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota and lost both of those games vs Denver (Russell Wilson) and Chicago (Justin Fields). The last 2 teams they’ve played, Rams & Panthers, rank 32nd and 28th in rushing so today will be a big adjustment for this banged up SF defense. Atlanta perfect vs the spread (5-0 ATS) and their biggest loss this season was by 6 points last week @ Tampa. This one will be close and we’ll grab the points. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky +4 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kentucky +4 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 7:30PM ET - Kentucky got off to a great start to the season but has now lost two straight games. The Cats most recent loss to South Carolina has impacted this line and given us more value with the home underdog. Last week UK was without future NFL 1st rounder QB Will Levis who practiced this week and is back for this game. Additionally, this is a spot to sell high on Mississippi State, who is off a pair of huge SEC wins against Arkansas and Texas A&M. Not to mention the Bulldogs have a monster game on deck against Alabama. The Bulldogs benefitted from facing a pair of back up QB’s in their last two wins and were +5 in turnovers. The MSU defense still gave up 483-total yards to Arkansas and 388-yards to Texas A&M. The one road game against a comparable opponent to Kentucky was versus LSU and the Bulldogs were outgained by 129-yards and lost by 15-points. The Wildcats should have success with their running game against a Bulldog defense that gives up 139.8-rushing yards per game (56th) which will then open up the passing attack for Levis. Kentucky also allows the 14th least passing yards per game at 182.2 with opponents completing just 15.8-pass attempts per game which is 13th in the nation. Last season MISS ST won at home 31-17 as a 1-point favorite. The home team has covered 8-straight in this series with the host winning by an average of +15.5PPG. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Kent State +8 v. Toledo | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
#117 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kent +8 over Toledo, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We always take a strong look at underdogs that have a potent offense and that’s what we have here. And we’re getting more than a TD which is a bonus. Kent’s overall offensive numbers aren’t spectacular this season, however much of that has to do with the schedule they’ve played. They’ve already faced Georgia, Oklahoma, and Washington this season and their strength of schedule is ranked 26th nationally. Compare that to Toledo’s SOS which is 135th and we feel Kent is more prepared for this match up. When stepping away from those high level Power 5 teams, the Golden Flashes offensive numbers are very good averaging 39 PPG and 570 YPG in their other 3 contests. In their 2 games vs MAC opponents the last 2 weeks, Kent has put up almost 1,200 yards! They are coming off a close loss last week as a 5 point favorite @ Miami OH. Toledo is stepping into this game off a very deceiving 52-32 win over Northern Illinois last week. The Rockets were outgained by 75 yards in that win, they had 2 pick 6’s, they were +4 in turnovers, and NIU played without their starting QB. Toledo’s offensive numbers aren’t great (ranked 78th in total offense) despite playing a very easy schedule as we mentioned. Defensively they have some decent stats but besides Ohio State, who scored 77 points and put up almost 800 yards on this Rocket defense, they’ve faced a very poor offensive schedule with their other opponents ranked 68th, 71st, 125th, and 129th in total offense. Their 3 FBS wins this season have come against NIU, CMU, UMass who are all 1-5 SU on the season for a combined record of 3-15. We like Kent to give Toledo all they can handle here and we expect them to have a shot at the outright win. Take the points. |
|||||||
10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
#924 ASA TOP PLAY ON LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over San Diego Padres, Tuesday at 9:35 PM ET - LA dominated this series during the regular season winning 14 of the 19 meetings and 13 of those wins came by at least 2 runs. In their 19 meetings this season, the Dodgers had a +63 run differential which equates to +3.3 runs per game and that includes their 5 losses. Pretty dominant to say the least. LA should have a big advantage on the mound here as they will send either Kershaw or Urias to start game 1. Both were outstanding vs San Diego this season with Kershaw sporting a 0.75 ERA in 2 starts vs the Padres and Urias came in with a 1.50 ERA in 4 starts. Clevinger will be the starter for San Diego after they used their top 3 starters over the weekend in NY. He has not pitched since October 1st and is coming off an illness so he may not be at 100%. Clevinger was poor on the road this year as well with a 5.46 ERA and a WHIP of 1.35. He faced LA 3 times this season and was rocked for 14 ER’s in just 13 innings of work. The host has had the better bullpen all season long (2nd in ERA and 1st in WHIP) and they have all arms available for this one. They are rested and ready while Padres are off emotional 3 game east coast series vs Mets. We’re getting this rested LA team with their top starter on the mound (either Urias or Kershaw) vs the Padres 4th starter. We think we’re getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at even money with the Dodgers. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
#465 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Dolphins -3 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Fins will be starting Teddy Bridgewater at QB in this one and that’s not a bad thing. He’s a veteran and really could be a starter in this league and his ATS record under center is spectacular at 42-21 ATS. Bridgewater stepped in vs Cincinnati after Tagovailoa was injured in their most recent game and he threw for 193 yards and a TD. The Jets have a 2-2 record but could easily be 0-4 as they rallied from 13 points down in the FINAL 2 MINUTES vs Cleveland for the 1 point win and rallied from 10 points down in the final 8:00 minutes to beat a bad Pittsburgh team last week. The Fins have played the tougher schedule and they are +0.3 YPPG differential compared to -0.3 YPP differential for the Jets who have played the easier slate. Miami won by 7 in both meetings last season and outgained the Jets by 778 to 608 in the 2 meetings combined. We’ve upgraded Miami this year while the NYJ power rating remains about the same. The Fins actually have the best record in the NFL since week 9 of last season with an 11-2 SU record tied with the Chiefs. The Jets are 2-2 but could easily be 0-4 as they scored 2 TD’s in the final 7 minutes last week to come from behind and squeak by a bad Pittsburgh team and they scored 2 TD’s in the final 2 minutes @ Cleveland to win by 1. Two weeks ago the Jets were +6.5 at home vs Cincy and lost by 12 and now only +3 vs Miami who we have rated as dead even vs the Bengals on a neutral field? Bad line and we like Miami, with extra time to prepare after losing their first game of the season last Thursday at Cincinnati, to win by more than a FG here. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +1.5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#356 ASA TOP PLAY ON Iowa State +1.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - ISU is in must win mode at home here after losing back to back games vs Baylor (lost by 7) and Kansas (lost by 3). In their 14-11 loss @ KU last week the Cyclones outgained Jayhawks by 100+ yards but missed 3 of their 4 FG’s in a game they should have won. Make note the ISU kicker was perfect on the season coming into the game so it’s not as if that has been a problem in the past. KSU is off back to back huge wins vs Oklahoma and Texas Tech but were outgained in both. The game prior to that the Wildcats lost at home to Tulane and the yardage was dead even. The Cats are a bit fortunate to be 4-1 as they’ve only outgained their 5 opponents by an average of 33 YPG but they are already +9 turnovers this season. KSU averages just 150 YPG passing (115th nationally) and they rely heavily on their running game to move the offense. That might be tough here as they are facing an Iowa State defense that 8th in the country in total defense (255 YPG allowed) and 7th in rush defense giving up just 83 YPG. Last week the ISU defense faced a Kansas offense that ranked 13th in rushing (228 YPG) to barely 100 yards on 3.6 YPC. The Cyclones have outgained their opponents this year by +126 YPG and their defense is allowing only 4.4 YPP which is a full 1 YPP better than KSU’s stop unit. The Clones were favored by 6.5 at Kansas State last year (and won) and this year they are home underdogs. Too much of a line swing in our opinion and with games vs Texas and Oklahoma on deck, this is a huge home game for Iowa State. We have this game powered to dead even so we like the value with the host. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech -2.5 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
#408 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech -2.5 over UTEP, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for UTEP playing their 2nd straight road game (and 3rd in 4 weeks) after winning a tight one at Charlotte last week. The Miners were outgained in that 41-35 win @ Charlotte but had 2 defensive TD’s including a 100 yard fumble return which was a 14 point swing in a tight game. UTEP is 3-1 over their last 4 games but their opponents have been weak as they faced New Mexico (lost by 17), NM State (won by 7) and Charlotte (won by 6) during that stretch, 3 teams we have rated 122, 124, and 128 nationally (out of 131 teams). The Miners could have easily lost all 3 of those games vs very poor opponents. La Tech is in a nice spot here coming off a bye week. They’ve lost their last 2 games but played strong competition losing to Clemson (undefeated) and South Alabama, whose only loss was by 1 point @ UCLA. La Tech has also already played Missouri this year and they have a strength of schedule rated 20th nationally compared to UTEP which ranks 116th in that category. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, the Bulldogs have the better offensive numbers with more YPG and they average a full TD more per game than UTEP. The Miners have the better defensive numbers but they’ve faced 4 offenses this year ranked 129th, 125th, 112th, and 85th. The Bulldogs were favored on the road in this meeting by 6.5 points last year and they were upset by UTEP and now we get them at a much cheaper price, at home, and in a very good situational spot. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
#382 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +9.5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Tech steps in with a 3-2 record but they’ve outgained every opponent this year but the Red Raiders were -6 turnovers in their 2 losses to NC State and Kansas State. In their 9 point loss @ KSU last week the Raiders had a shot but had 4 turnovers, missed a FG, and were shut out on downs once. In the loss, Tech was +11 first downs, +14 yards, and +5 minutes TOP. They catch OSU in a great letdown spot here. The Cowboys have played one of the weaker schedules in power 5 (90th SOS) and they’ve been waiting and preparing for their rematch vs Baylor last week. That’s because the Bears topped OSU in the Big 12 Championship game last year. They played that game last week vs Baylor and picked up their revenge win but they were outgained by the Bears 457 to 379. It was the first legit opponent the Cowboys have faced this season after wins over Central Michigan, Arkansas Pine Bluff, and an Arizona State program in upheaval. Despite playing the much tougher schedule (8th SOS nationally) Texas Tech is +122 YPG compared to OSU who is +82 YPG despite playing an easy slate. Tech ranks higher nationally in both total offense AND total defense and if they can eliminate the turnovers, we think they can win this game outright. The Raiders have been waiting for this one after getting embarrassed 23-0 at home vs OSU last year when the Cowboys had one of the top defensive units in the nation. Not so much this year as the Cowboys lost 63% of their defensive production (20th most nationally) and their defensive coordinator is now at Ohio State. Tech is sitting in a great spot here and we’ll call this one down to the wire. Take the generous points. |
|||||||
10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 41 m | Show |
#421 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* SMU +3 over Central Florida, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Mustangs are desperate for a win coming in off back to back losses to strong opponents Maryland & TCU. SMU lost by a single score to each and outgained Maryland on the road and played almost dead even yardage wise to TCU, the same Horned Frog team that destroyed Oklahoma last week. In UCF’s most recent game they were completely outplayed by a below average Georgia Tech team but somehow pulled out the win. The Yellow Jackets outgained UCF by 119 yards but allowed the Knights to block a punt for a TD. In UCF’s only other game vs a legit opponent, they were outgained and beaten at home by Louisville. So the Knights were outplayed by both of their legit opponents and both of those teams (GT & Louisville) currently have losing records. SMU’s offense has been outstanding averaging over 500 YPG and 38.5 PPG. They’re defensive numbers aren’t great when compared to the UCF defense, however they’ve played the MUCH tougher schedule. The Mustang defense has already played 3 offenses ranked inside the top 23 nationally including TCU who ranks 2nd in the country in total offense. When these two met last season, SMU was favored by 7 at home and outgained the Knights by 300 yards and won the game 55-28. Now they are getting a FG in this game. Compare that to SMU’s games vs TCU and Maryland in which they were +2.5 in each telling us this line is off. This game was scheduled for last Saturday but had to be rescheduled due to the affects of Hurricane Ian in the Orlando area. UCF has been dealing with the distractions that go along with this which isn’t ideal. SMU gets the cover on Wednesday. |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Cardinals +1 v. Panthers | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
#271 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +1 versus Carolina Panthers 4 PM ET - Both 1-2 but the Strength of Schedule for both teams is drastically different. Arizona has played the 4th toughest schedule, Carolina the 30th. Carolina has been outgained in 2 of 3 games and barely outgained the Giants by +10-yards. Arizona has outgained 2 of 3 opponents this season and has put up 353 YPG despite facing two top tier defenses of the Chiefs and Rams. The Panther offense has struggled. They rank 30th in total YPG, 31st in passing and 14th in rushing. Carolina ONLY has 5 offensive TD’s this season. Against the Saints last week they managed just 293 total yards of offense, 12 first downs and 5.0YPPL. The Panthers defense is overvalued. Last week they allowed a Saints offense that has struggled this season to gain 426 total yards and 6.7YPPL. Carolina forced 3 TO’s though, one for a score. The Cardinals offense has gotten off to slow starts in games, getting outscored 13-56 in first halves this season. Cards QB Murray has played well completing 63.8% of his passes with 784 total yards, 3 TD’s to just 2 INT’s but they have just 1 explosive play on the season of 30+ yards. The Cardinals defense is 11th in stopping the run this season which is the Panthers strength. Their Pass Defense is 30th in the NFL but now they face Baker Mayfield (32ND worst QBR). The Panthers have owned the Cardinals in recent years with 6 straight wins, including last year’s 34-10 win. Last season the Cardinals were 7-point HOME favorites last year with Colt McCoy starting under center. Arizona is 19-6-1 ATS their last 27 regular season games as a ROAD DOG with 7 straight outright wins. Carolina is 3-10 ATS their last 13 as a favorite dating back to 2020. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -3.5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON Mississippi State -3.5 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Well we went against A&M last week and should have won and we’re coming back this week and fading this overrated team. Last Saturday they were favored by 2 vs Arkansas and won 23-21 pushing the spread. The fact is, Arkansas completely outplayed the Aggies with a total yardage edge of 415 to 343 and a 244 to 192 advantage on the ground. One play changed the entire game for the underdog Razors. With Arkansas up 14-7 very late in 2nd quarter and driving for a score inside the A&M 5 yard line. Razor QB fumbles and it’s returned 97 yards for a TD for a 14 point swing. Arkansas also missed a 42 yard FG at the end that would have won the game. Arkansas was the correct side in that game. In the 2 weeks prior A&M lost at home to App State and then beat Miami by 8 but the Aggies were outgained by 130+ yards in that game and beaten in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining just 3.9 YPC. That’s the same App State team that needed a hail mary 2 weeks ago to beat Troy and then lost at home to James Madison last week (we were on JMU). That’s also the same Miami team that lost by 14 points at home vs Middle Tenn State last Saturday. A&M could easily be sitting with a 1-3 record right now. This will be their first true road game of the season and they have Alabama on deck so not an ideal situation. The Aggie offense has been bad to say the least. If we take out their defensive and special teams TD’s this year, the actual offense has scored only 5 touchdowns in 3 games (minus their FCS game vs Sam Houston). The Aggies have been outgained in each of their 3 FBS games by a total of more than 300 yards. They’ve already switched QB’s from King to Johnson and neither has been good. This offense currently ranks outside the top 100 in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and PPG. They face a Mississippi State team that is very dangerous offensively. The Bulldogs returned 71% of their offensive production from a team that averaged 29 PPG last year including QB Rogers who threw for almost 5000 yards last year and 36 TD’s. This year he’s already thrown for 1400 yards and 16 TD’s and the Bulldogs are averaging 37 PPG. The MSU defense was solid last season allowing 345 YPG and they returned over 80% of their production on that side of the ball (5th most nationally). This season they are allowing 319 YPG and we don’t see A&M having much success on offense. Last year MSU went into Texas A&M and won the game 26-22 outgaining the Aggies 438 to 297. We don’t see anything changing this year. Mississippi State gets the win and cover at home. |
|||||||
09-30-22 | Tulane +2.5 v. Houston | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
#105 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulane +2.5 over Houston, Friday at 7 PM ET - Tulane is coming off a tough loss, a game the absolutely should have won. They played host to a much improved Southern Miss team and despite losing 27-24 they outgained the Golden Eagles by 200 yards! The Green Wave were +13 first downs, +145 yards rushing, and +13 minute time of possession. Tulane missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs 3 times in USM territory. They entered the game off a huge road win @ Kansas State, which looks like a great win now after KSU just beat Oklahoma last week. It was their first loss and non cover of the season and they are +25 points vs the spread in their 4 games this year (undervalued). Houston, on the other hand, is just 1-3 ATS and their only spread win was by a half point. The Cougars are now -38 points vs the spread this season (overvalued). Houston struggled last week at home to beat a bad Rice team 34-27. The yardage was dead even and it took a Cougar defensive score in the final minutes to pull out the 7 point win (they were favored by 17). Houston is -50 YPG and dead even YPP differential after 4 games. Tulane is +200 YPG and +2.3 YPP through 4 games. The dog is coming off a shocking loss and the better team here. They’ll be ready and we like Tulane. |
|||||||
09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 54 m | Show |
#102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over Miami Dolphins, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The team with a 1-2 record is favored by a FG over the team with a perfect 3-0 record? This is a very solid spot for the Bengals at home. They are in somewhat of a must win here as they are 1-2 and 3 of their last 4 games are away from home. They can’t afford to lose this one. They catch Miami in a terrible spot coming off a gigantic home won over division rival Buffalo. Not only that, the Fins defense has to be gassed here on a short week after facing a whopping 90 offensive snaps from Buffalo’s offense. It was 100 degrees on the field and the Miami defenders were dropping like flies with heat exhaustion, cramping, etc… This will be a very tough week for the Miami defense. On top of that, prior to their huge 21-19 win over Buffalo, the Dolphins had to make a huge rally on the road @ Baltimore scoring 28 points in the final 12:00 minutes of the game to squeak by the Ravens 42-38. Back to back physically and emotionally taxing games and now a short week on the road for Miami. Despite their win Miami was outgained 497 to 212 last week vs the Bills so they were quite fortunate to say the least. After losing 2 tight games to start the season vs Pittsburgh (Bengals had 5 turnovers) and @ Dallas (Bengals just played poorly), they picked up some momentum last week handling the Jets on the road 27-12. QB Burrow finally looked like a top tier signal caller with 275 yards passing and 3 TD’s along with by far his highest QBR of the season. Miami QB Tagovailoa is dealing with a back issue that may cause some problems on a short week. Lay it with Cincinnati. |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Eagles v. Washington Commanders +6.5 | Top | 24-8 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Commanders +6.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Look ahead here was Philly -3 and it’s jumped to 6.5 based on 1 data point for each team. Everyone watched Philadelphia roll over Minnesota on Monday night 24-7 and Washington lose at up and coming Detroit, thus the line move. The Vikings definitely had their chances in the 2nd half vs the Eagles throwing 2 picks in the endzone and another at the Philly 20 yard line. They are also on the road off short week with their Monday night win which is not ideal. IN their only road game thus far Philly nearly lost @ Detroit but pulled out a 38-35 win. While the Eagles offense has looked good averaging 31 PPG, let’s not forget Washington is averaging 28.3 PPG after 2 games and ranks 6th in total offense. Their 28-22 win over Jacksonville in week 1 looks like a solid win after the Jags rolled 24-0 over the Colts in week 2. Last year when these 2 faced off here in Washington, the Eagles were favored by 6.5 as well and won 20-16. The Commanders led that game at half 16-7 and continued to lead in the 4th quarter before losing close. Washington had Heinicke at QB for that game and the yardage was nearly dead even. Now with Wentz at QB we feel they have a shot to win this game outright and they’re getting nearly a full TD. While people bag on Wentz, he’s a big upgrade for Washington. He’s already thrown for 650 yards and 7 TD’s after throwing 27 TD’s and just 7 picks last year. The Eagles 3-7 ATS as favorite since start of 2020 season and we like the division underdog in a solid situational spot here. |
|||||||
09-24-22 | Arkansas +2 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-23 | Push | 0 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
#403 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played at the Cowboys home stadium on Saturday. Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. We’ve been unimpressed with A&M this season and feel they are drastically overvalued right now. We were on them in a perfect spot a few weeks ago when they played host to App State who was coming off 63-61 loss to UNC a week earlier. The Heels rolled up huge numbers vs the App State defense yet A&M at home was only able to score 14 points on 186 total yards. That speaks volumes to how this Aggie offense is struggling right now. They followed that loss up last week with a 17-9 win over Miami FL in which TAMU had only 265 total yards. Thus, in their 2 games since beating Sam Houston State to open the season, the Aggies have scored 31 total points on just 451 total yards. They’ve been outgained by a combined 257 total yards in those 2 games. They’ve allowed 49 first downs in those 2 games while accumulating just 25 first downs offensively. A&M has already made a switch at QB from Haynes to Johnson, but the stats haven’t been great for either. Johnson started last week and completed just 50% of his passes in a game A&M was also outplayed in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining only 3.9 YPC on offense. It was a game the Canes should have won and we’re getting some value here because the Aggies won on the scoreboard. While their offense is struggling, the Razorbacks are not. Last week they struggled a bit in a letdown spot with Missouri State but still put up big numbers. Despite their -3 turnover ratio for the game, the Razors won and put up 600 total yards. They’ve now rolled up 447, 462, and 600 yards in their 3 games to go along with 113 total points (37.6 PPG). Two of those games were vs Cincinnati and South Carolina so we’re not talking about cupcake city here. Arkansas will control the trenches as they’ve outgained their opponents by 500+ yards on the ground this season while the Aggies have been outgained in the run game by 140 yards. Last year when these 2 met A&M was a 4 point favorite and Arkansas won the game by 10 points outgaining the Aggies by 170 total yards. We don’t see anything changing here. TAMU is talented but still quite young and we like Arkansas, who has a much better QB situation with Jefferson (770 yards passing / 170 yards rushing / 9 TD’s this year) to win again. |
|||||||
09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -4 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Steelers offense has been abysmal the first 2 weeks of the season. They rank 30th in YPG & YPP and they’ve been outgained by 300 yards in their 2 games and they’ve scored just 2 offensive TD’s this season. They pulled out a tight win over Cincinnati in OT despite the Bengals turning the ball over 5 times including a pick 6. Even with the +5 turnover mark in that game Pittsburgh had to go to OT in that one. Last week they were topped by New England 17-14 but outgained by a full 1.5 YPP. The Pats missed a FG, punted from the Pitt 40 yard line and ended the game inside the Steeler 20 yard line. New England, after averaging just 5 YPP vs Miami in week 1, had some solid success offensively last week averaging 5.7 YPP. Cleveland is looking for a bounce back after blowing a home lead and losing to the Jets 31-30. The Browns were up 30-17 with under 2:00 minutes remaining in last week’s game and allowed NYJ to scored 2 late TD’s to pick up the win. Cleveland has outgained both of their first 2 opponents including on the ground where they are +255 yards through 2 contests. Pittsburgh has gained just 75 and 90 yards on the ground the first two weeks and they are -95 yards on the ground. That’ll play a huge factor here as we expect winds of 20+MPH for this game which means the rushing attack will be more important for each side. The Pitt defense is drastically different with TJ Watt out of the lineup and you could see that last week with 0 sacks vs the Pats. We feel the number gives us value as well. Cleveland was favored by -6.5 vs NYJ last week and now just -4.5 vs a Pittsburgh team that is no better than the Jets in our power ratings. Last year Cleveland was a 5.5 point favorite at home vs Pittsburgh and lost 15-10 and they pushed inside the Steeler 25 yard line on their final drive but were shut out on downs. We like Cleveland to cover this one vs a Steeler team we have tabbed as one of the worst in the NFL. |
|||||||
09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +2.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State +2.5 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Interesting line here. The 3-0 Chanticleers are favored by just 2.5 over the 0-3 Panthers? Looks too easy based on the records and we agree. Our power ratings have Georgia State favored here so we grab the value with the home dog rather than simply looking at the current records. The Panthers played 2 very tough opponents to open the season losing @ South Carolina and at home vs UNC. Last week they surprisingly lost 42-41 but had over 600 yards of total offense and outgained the 49ers by over 100 total yards. Charlotte’s starting QB returned after missing 2 games which helped along with a 52 yard fumble returned for a TD for the 49ers and a TD with 17 seconds left to win. Georgia State has outgained 2 of their 3 opponents and for the season by 60 yards which points to the fact they are MUCH better than their 0-3 record. Panthers return 77% of their offensive + defensive production (14th nationally) from a team that went 8-5 last season, won their bowl game by 31 points, and nearly upset Auburn on the road. Starting QB Grainger is back after throwing for 19 TD’s and just 4 picks last season to go along with a very potent ground attack. The Panthers have topped 200 yards rushing in each of their first 3 (averaging 231 YPG on the ground) including games vs SEC and ACC defenses. Coastal has played the much easier schedule with all 3 games at home thus far vs Army, Buffalo, and Gardner Webb. They were lucky to beat FCS Gardner Webb getting outgained by 140 yards. Last week CC was trailing Buffalo (now 0-3 SU record) entering the 4th quarter but picked up a fumble recovery for a TD which turned the game and led to a 12 point win. The 3 teams CC has beaten this year (all at home) have a 2-7 SU combined record. Now they go on the road for the first time vs a desperate team that absolutely has to have this win. Last year Coastal had a much better team than they have right now and this Georgia State team won that match up on the road 42-40. Take GSU as a home dog here. |
|||||||
09-19-22 | Tigers v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 11-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #968 Baltimore Orioles -1.5 runs vs. Detroit Tigers, 7 PM ET - Baltimore is in desperation mode as they sit 4-games back in the Wild Card race with time running out on the regular season. The Tigers are the perfect opponent to cut into that deficit. Detroit is 55-91 on the season and have a season net run differential of minus -173 which ranks them 27th out of 30 teams. Baltimore will send Tyler Wells to the mound who is 7-6 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The Tigers will counter with lefty Tyler Alexander who is 3-10 on the season with a 5.35 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He is 0-3 in his last four starts with an ERA over 10.00, allowing 28 total hits, 19 runs in 18.3 innings of work. What’s significant for our bet against him here is that the Tigers lost those four starts by an average of 4.25 runs per game. Detroit really struggles against right-handed starters this season hitting jut .213 as a team and scoring 3.07 runs/9 innings. We will lay the 1.5 runs in this one. |
|||||||
09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -10 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - While this line may seem high, it’s really not. Green Bay was favored by 11.5 at home last year and won by 15. Chicago played host to a San Francisco team with an inexperienced QB last week (Lance) and the Niners were laying 7 in that road game. The Bears won the game 19-10 but they were dominated on the stat sheet. San Fran outgained Chicago by 1.3 YPP and the Bears only put up 204 total yards with 50 coming on one play. The 49ers also completely controlled the line of scrimmage outrushing the Bears 4.7 YPC to 2.9 YPC. The terrible weather in that game really helped Chicago ugly up the game and hang around in the first half (down 7-0) when they had only 68 total yards at halftime. The Packers lost big in Minnesota but played better than the final score indicated. A couple of big pass drops on offense could have changed the entire game. GB won the line of scrimmage averaging 6.2 YPC but were only able to run the ball 18 times because they got behind 17-0 at half. As we mentioned SF was able to run the ball last week with success on Chicago which we expect GB to do but we also have Aaron Rodgers at the helm rather than Trey Lance. Rodgers has a 20-7 lifetime ATS record vs the Bears and GB has won each of the last 4 meetings by double digits. The Packers have also been huge money makers coming off a loss with a perfect 11-0 ATS record their last 11 games in that situation. This is a huge home game for Green Bay with Tampa on deck. That cannot afford to lose this one and we expect to see them at the top of their game here. We’ll lay the points. |
|||||||
09-17-22 | San Diego State v. Utah -21 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
#200 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah -21 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - This one could get ugly in our opinion. San Diego State has taken a huge step back from last year’s team that went 12-2 on the season. They have been very unimpressive in both of their games so far this season with an 0-2 ATS record (1-1 SU) failing to cover the spread by a combined 27 points. In their season opener they played host to Arizona, who we have power rated as the worst team in the Pac 12. It was a hugely important game as SDSU opened their brand new on campus stadium for that one. The Aztecs were dominated to the tune of 38-20 and they were outgained by 230 yards. Arizona followed that up by getting thrashed at home by Mississippi State last week. SDSU’s other game was a 38-7 win over Idaho State who ranks as a lower tier FCS team. The Aztecs had a special teams TD in that one and outgained a bad Idaho State team by “only” 150 yards. The reason we say that is because a week prior Idaho State was outgained by 300+ yards vs UNLV, far from a solid college program. After losing to a bad Pac 12 team by 18 points at home in their opener, San Diego State now they face the team we have power rated as the best in the Pac 12 and it’s on the road. It’s also a huge revenger for Utah after losing in OT last year at SDSU. The Utes have been waiting for this one and they are coming off a 73-7 win over Southern Utah last week after losing their opener by 3 points @ Florida. If Arizona can score 38 points on the Aztecs, we can’t imagine what this potent Utah offense will do. The Utes have over 1000 total yards in just 2 games including an impressive 446 @ Florida. San Diego State won’t keep up here. They can’t pass (just 170 yards passing in 2 games) and they won’t be able to run very successfully vs a solid Utah front that finished 26th nationally vs the run last year. The Utes won every home game last year by double digits by an average margin of +19 points so -21 vs a poor San Diego State team is more than doable. Utah runs away with this one and they’ve already shown they’ll pile it on if needed scoring 73 last week. |
|||||||
09-15-22 | Reds v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals -1.5 Runs (-130) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 7:45 PM ET - The Reds are in a free fall losing 6 straight games including a 4 game sweep at home at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates. In that series the Reds were outscored 23-8 and only collected 23 total hits for an average of less than 6 hits per game. St Louis is surging winning 33 of their last 45 games and they’ve built a 7 game lead in the NL Central over Milwaukee. The Cards are also chasing the Mets to try and earn a bye in the wild card round. Mikolas is on the mound and he has been fantastic at home this season with a 2.23 ERA allowing just 59 hits in 89 innings pitched. He’s coming off a poor outing, however that was on the road vs where his numbers are quite a bit higher, and he’s had an extra day off to rest up between starts. In his 1 start at home vs the Reds this season he pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 ER. Cincy is struggling at the plate right now and we expect them to have problems plating runs tonight. That shouldn’t be a problem for St Louis. They will be facing Chase Anderson who has pitched only 9 innings this season, but 2.1 of those innings have come vs the Cardinals. They faced him twice just 2 weeks ago and Anderson gave up 7 ER’s in only 2.1 innings. On the season he’s allowed 3 home runs in just 9 innings which is a potential big problem here vs the Cards who are averaging 1.3 HR’s per game and have hit the most round trippers in MLB since the All Star Break. Anderson is backed up by the worst bullpen in MLB (highest ERA and 2nd highest WHIP) so we don’t expect the offense to stop when he exits. Cincinnati is just 27-43 on the road this year and vs teams over .500 they have the 2nd fewest wins in the Majors with a record of 25-53. We like the host Cardinals to win this one by 2+ runs. |
|||||||
09-12-22 | Cubs v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Mets -1.5 (-135) vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs are struggling to score runs with 39 scored in their last 12 games or 3.25 per game. The Mets are 5th in baseball in total runs scored on the season at 666 in 141 games. New York is putting up an average of 5.52 runs per 9/innings over the course of their last ten games. In the Mets last two games they outscored Miami 20-6. Chicago has been shutout twice in their last ten games and scored 3 or less in six games. Looking closer, in their last ten games the Mets are hitting .297 as a team versus right-handed pitchers and scoring 6.28 runs/9innings. The Cubs are hitting .239 as a team vs. righties in their last ten games scoring 3.68 runs/9 innings. NY will send Chris Bassett who is 13-7 SU on the season with a 3.24 ERA. In his last ten starts though Bassett has allowed 2.23 Earned Runs Per game while allowing just 5.46 hits. The Cubs will counter with young Javier Assad who is 0-1 in three starts with a 2.93 ERA. He was recently roughed up by the Reds in 5.1 innings when he allowed 4 earned runs on 5 hits. The Mets get a big home win in this game as they battle the Braves for the Division lead. |
|||||||
09-11-22 | Bucs v. Cowboys +2.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:20 PM ET - Tom Brady has some of the most impressive numbers of all time, but do you know who has a lifetime undefeated record? Father time! Brady is dealing with some off-field family distractions and is now 45-years old. He’s playing behind a rebuilt offensive line missing 3 starters and he doesn’t do well when pressured. Did you know the Cowboys had the 2nd best DVOA numbers last season behind only the Bills. The Cowboys pass defense was 2nd in the league in both Opponent Completion Percentage at 59.65% and Opponent Average Passer rating at 76.2. The Bucs can’t rely on their running game which was 26th in the league last year averaging 96.3 rushing yards per game. The Cowboys can lean on Elliott and the running game here with the 9th best rushing offense in the NFL a year ago at 122YPG. Dallas can use their passing attack to soften up a stout Tampa rush D as the Bucs were 24th in passing yards allowed per game at 245.3. The Cowboys were the 4th best passing offense in the NFL last season at 279.4PYPG. The Cowboys have been home underdogs 6 times since 2018 and they’ve covered every one of those games winning outright by an average of +13.7PPG. Grab the points. |
|||||||
09-10-22 | Old Dominion v. East Carolina -12.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
#370 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -12.5 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 6 PM ET - ODU is coming off one of their biggest upsets in school history knocking off Virginia Tech last week 20-17 despite getting outgained by 100 yards in the game. VT under a new HC and new schemes on both sides of the ball imploded with 5 turnovers in the game, which led directly to 17 of ODU’s 20 points. The Monarch offense was not good averaging just 3.6 YPP and getting beat at the line of scrimmage putting up only 2.5 YPC. They scored a TD with 30 seconds left in the game to pick up the win and the only TD the scored prior to that was a fumble return. ECU comes in with the opposite scenario. They outplayed one of the top teams in the country, NC State, yet lost 21-20. The Pirates outgained the Wolfpack, who many picked to be the top team in the ACC this season, but missed a late FG and had a punt blocked and returned for a TD. The Pirates held up well in the trenches averaging 4.3 YPC vs one of the top defensive lines in the nation. The ECU defense held the NC State offense to just 14 points on 344 total yards. That’s a Wolfpack offense that averaged 31 PPG and 414 YPG last season and brought back most of their key players including QB Leary. Offensively, the Pirates have a huge edge at QB in this one with Ahlers starting for the 5th straight season! He has thrown for more than 10,000 career yards with 90 total TD’s. ODU QB Wolff took over midway through last season and was fairly average. Last week, in their fortunate win, he completed only 40% of his passes and was under constant pressure (weak OLine for ODU). The Monarch fans stormed the field last week and now ODU must travel after that huge win. ECU will be out for blood here and we’ll call for any easy win. |
|||||||
09-09-22 | Boise State -17 v. New Mexico | Top | 31-14 | Push | 0 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -17 over New Mexico, Friday at 9 PM ET - Boise will come out with a chip on their shoulder here after getting blitzed @ Oregon State last weekend 34-17. The Broncos first half offensively was a disaster due to turnovers. They had the ball 9 times in the first half and turned the ball over on 4 of those possessions and missed a short FG on another. In all they had 5 turnovers in the game which killed any offensive momentum they could gather. After the break BSU was much better scoring 17 points and punting just once. That loss prevents them from overlooking this game @ New Mexico as the Broncos cannot afford to go 0-2 to start the season. The Lobos won big last week vs FCS Maine but not much can be taken from that game vs a vastly inferior opponent. They dominated the stats, as we to be expected, but also ran 26 more offensive snaps on their game vs the Black Bears. Now New Mexico takes a huge step up this weekend while Boise takes a fairly significant step down. Last year these 2 met in Boise and the Broncos 37-0 win as a 27-point chalk and New Mexico barely cracked 100 yards of total offense. Boise has dominated this series winning 5 straight with 4 of those wins coming by at least 28 points. New Mexico is fairly inexperienced and their new transfer QB Kendrick didn’t play much at Kansas the last few years and will be operating behind an OLine that has just 22 returning starts ranking them 130th out of 131 teams. This Lobo team average just 12 PPG last year and will have big problems vs this experienced and very solid Boise defense. After winning their first 2 home games last year vs low level competition (Houston Baptist & NMSU) the Lobos lost their final 4 games by margins of 29, 29, 25, and 14 points. The much better team has all kinds of motivation this weekend and they will roll. Take Boise State. |
|||||||
09-05-22 | Clemson -23 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 27 m | Show |
#235 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -23 over Georgia Tech, Monday at 8 PM ET - The Ga Tech offense will do next to nothing in this game in our opinion. The Jackets put up only 8 points in their meeting last year and have averaged 11 PPG over the last 6 meetings. Clemson will have one of the top defensive teams in the nation and finished 3rd nationally last year allowing just 4.3 YPP. We believe there is a huge mismatch up front with Clemson’s defensive line vs Georgia Tech’s offensive front. The Tigers should have one of the top front 7 in the nation defensively while the Yellow Jackets OLine has only 37 career starts ranking them 116th in that category. GT is very inexperienced ranking 121st in returning production after winning just 3 games last year and getting outgained by 1.0 YPP on the season. While GT only put up 8 points in last year’s meeting, they covered because the Clemson offense took a huge step back and only scored 14 points in that game. Prior to last year the Tigers won the previous 3 meetings by 66, 38, and 28 points. We look for the Tiger offense to be much improved this season. QB Uiagalelei had on off season last year but he’s lost a bunch of weight and we’re hearing he's been very good in camp. He’ll be operating behind an top notch offensive line with 4 starters back with 6 of his top pass catchers back and his top RB Shipley. We look for a huge improvement on that side of the ball for the Tigers. GT head coach Collins is in desperation mode after a 9-25 SU recodrhis first 3 seasons and canned a number of assistants. Because of that the GT coaching staff has 8 new coaches which means a learning curve early in the season. After a disappointing season, the Tigers have a chip on their shoulders and they roll in this game. |
|||||||
09-03-22 | Florida Atlantic -4 v. Ohio | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
#191 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Atlantic -4 over Ohio U, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - FAU looked really good in their opening 43-13 win vs Charlotte last weekend. Their offense was extremely balanced with 264 yards passing and 212 yards rushing outgaining Charlotte by more than 200 total yards. The score could have been worse as FAU led 33-7 very early in the 2nd half and decided to sit a number of key players getting them rested for this match up. Owl QB Perry, former starter for the Miami Hurricanes, looked very sharp operating behind an offensive line that has a combined 125 career starts which ranks them as the 9th most experienced line in college football. The offense was without starting RB Ford, who has over 2000 career yards and averages 6.3 YPC, but he is expected back this week. This offense should continue their hot start vs an Ohio defense that finished outside the top 100 in total defense and rush defense. Can the Bobcat offense keep up? We don’t think so. They return QB Rourke but he didn’t do much through the air last year with Ohio ranking 105th nationally in passing YPG. So that means the Bobcats will have to be very successful running the ball to stay in this game but they are facing a very good FAU DLine that returns everyone and allowed just 2.7 YPC last week vs Charlotte. Owl head coach Willie Taggart has coached at a very high level as he was the head man at Oregon & Florida State. He has brought in some high level transfers as well including 5 players who used to play for him at FSU. Ohio was 3-9 last season and they are just 1-7 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home underdog and they are just 5-9 SU at home since 2020. Florida Atlantic is the much more talented team here and we think they could very well be a surprise team in 2022. We’ll lay the points. |
|||||||
08-29-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Dodgers have taken 2 of the first 3 in this series and this one sets up very nicely for them to pick up a win. LA’s one loss in this series was a 2-1 setback vs one of MLB’s top pitchers, Sandy Alcantara. In the other 2 games, LA has outscored Miami 18-7 and they’ve outhit the Marlins 30 to 10 in those 2 games. Not surprising as the Dodgers have the highest batting average and most runs scored in MLB this season. Meanwhile, since the All Star Break the Miami offense has been brutal. They rank dead last in batting average at .212 and they’ve only scored 92 runs (2.5 RPG) which is by far the worst in the Majors over that time period (Washington has scored 110 runs which ranks them 29th post All Star). Now we have a team that can’t hit or score runs facing Dodger pitcher Gonsolin who has allowed the lowest batting average in MLB this year at .169! He has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 20 of his 23 starts this season and he’s backed by one of the top bullpens in baseball. Just a terrible match up for a light hitting Miami team. Miami starter Lopez has tailed off drastically in the 2nd half of the season and the LA hitters should continue to stay hot tonight. Lopez was very good prior to the break with an ERA of 2.66, however since then he has started 7 games with an ERA of 6.00. His only really solid start in the 2nd half of the season was vs Oakland who is one of the worst hitting teams in MLB. The bullpen has also fallen off as of late with an ERA of almost 6.00 their last 10 outings so LA should have a chance to put some really solid offensive numbers on the board. The way Miami’s offense is playing the Dodgers may not need many runs to cover the -1.5. Take LA on the run line tonight. |
|||||||
08-28-22 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
#956 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - The Phillies have dominated this series with a perfect 6-0 record this year including a 6-0 win last night. The average score of the 6 games this season is Phillies 5.8 – Pirates 2.7. Going back further, the Phillies have won 11 of the last 13 meetings in Philadelphia and 73% of those wins have come by 2+ runs. The Pirates have been heading downhill for a while now losing 7 straight and 24 of their last 31 games. They are just 18-41 this year vs teams with a winning record. Since the All Star Break they rank dead last in MLB in batting average at .214 and 29th in OPS. They are averaging just 2.1 RPG during their current 7 game losing streak. They face Philly starter Syndergaard who has been on a nice run allowing 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his last 8 starts (4 with Angels and 4 with Philadelphia). The Phillies have been playing great baseball winning 22 of their last 31 games. Their offense ranks in the top 10 in RPG, batting average, and OPS and since the All Star Break they have a batting average of .274 which is 3rd best in MLB during that stretch. They have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 7 games. They got a boost offensively as well with Bryce Harper rejoining the line up after a stint on the DL. The Phillies should have another big day offensively facing Pittsburgh starter Contreras who is 1-3 in last 4 starts with an ERA of 6.10. When he exits the Pittsburgh bullpen is among the worst in baseball ranking dead last in ER’s allowed and hits allowed this season. Phillies keep rolling with another easy win this afternoon. |
|||||||
08-27-22 | Bears v. Browns -5 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 30 m | Show |
#126 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -5 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 7 PM ET - New Chicago head coach Eberflus announced this week that they will play their starters for much of the first half. What happened after he announced that? The line went from Cleveland -4 up to -5 and -5.5. That’s because the Browns also plan on playing their starters for some of the first half including QB Brissett who has yet to play in the preseason. Browns head coach Stefanski said he wants to get Brissett some extended time with the starters so he is ready when the season rolls around in a few weeks. Our view on this game is if both sets of starters play extensively in the first half – big edge Cleveland. After the break, who has the advantage in the 2nd half? Cleveland as well as they are deeper and have the better QB rotation with Dobbs and Rosen. The Bears are 2-0 in the preseason but their offensive numbers have been poor averaging just 4.2 yards per play. That’ll be a problem in this game vs a deep Cleveland defense that ranked 3rd in the NFL last year and in 2 preseason games they’ve allowed just 4.5 YPP. The Browns are 1-1 in the preseason but they’ve outgained both of their opponents by nearly a full 1.0 YPP. Their loss was here at home last week when the Eagles scored a TD late in the 4th quarter to pick up a 21-20 win. The Browns are at home again this week off that tough loss while Chicago is on the road for the 2nd straight game after traveling to Seattle last week. The Bears will really struggle offensively in this game and we like Cleveland to win by a TD+ |
|||||||
08-27-22 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
#902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 6 PM ET - The Phillies have dominated this series with a perfect 5-0 record this year including a 7-4 win last night. The average score of the 5 games this season is Phillies 5.8 – Pirates 3.2. Going back further, the Phillies have won 10 of the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia and 70% of those wins have come by 2+ runs. The Pirates have been heading downhill for a while now losing 6 straight and 23 of their last 30 games. They are just 18-40 this year vs teams with a winning record. Since the All Star Break they rank dead last in MLB in batting average at .214 and 29th in OPS. They are averaging just 2.3 RPG during their current 6 game losing streak. They face Philly starter Gibson who has been on a nice run allowing 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his last 8 starts. The Phillies have been playing great baseball winning 21 of their last 30 games. Their offense ranks in the top 10 in RPG, batting average, and OPS and since the All Star Break they have a batting average of .274 which is 3rd best in MLB during that stretch. They have scored at least 7 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. They got a boost offensive as well with Bryce Harper rejoining the line up after a stint on the DL. The Phillies should have another big day offensively facing Pittsburgh starter Beede who was a reliever for much of the season. Since joining the starting rotation earlier this month, Beede is winless in 4 starts with an ERA of 7.50. When he exits the Pittsburgh bullpen is among the worst in baseball ranking dead last in ER’s allowed and hits allowed this season. Phillies keep rolling with another easy win tonight. |
|||||||
08-22-22 | Brewers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - These 2 teams met in Milwaukee last week and split a 4 game series. We were on the Dodgers -1.5 vs Brewers and starting pitcher Lauer in that series lost with LA winning 2-1. The Brewers scored a late run in the bottom of the 8th to cover that run line but had only 4 hits in the process. The struggles continue at the plate for Milwaukee and now with LA at home and left hander Urias on the mound, we like them on the run line again tonight. The Brewers are hitting just .201 in the month of August which is the worst mark in MLB. Versus left handers, they are hitting .217 on the year which ranks them 29th out of 30 teams. This is a bad match up for a struggling offense facing Urias who is pitching at the top of his game right now. He faced Milwaukee last week and did not allow a run in 5 innings of work with the Dodgers winning 4-0. Urias has allowed just 3 ER’s in his last 31 innings spanning 5 starts. His control has been spot on striking out 29 and walking just 4 in that 5 game stretch. Current Milwaukee hitters have had 87 lifetime plate appearances vs Urias and their batting average is just .192. The Dodgers bats are officially back on track after sweeping Miami here over the weekend outscoring the Marlins 19-4 in the process. Yesterday they faced arguably the top starting pitcher in MLB, Sandy Alcantara, and shelled him for 10 hits and 6 runs in just 3 innings. As we stated above, they faced Milwaukee pitcher Lauer last week and won 2-1. We expect them to have more offensive success here at home where they average 5.3 RPG with a average winning margin of +2 RPG. Lauer’s numbers on the road drop off quite a bit as well with an ERA of 4.48 and a WHIP of 1.30. LA is now 43-15 at home this season and of those 43 wins, 37 have come by at least 2 runs. The Brewers are struggling as we said with a record of just 7-11 this month. They are coming off a huge rivalry series in Chicago in which the Cubs took 2 of 3 games. Now after playing yesterday in Chicago, they travel to the west coast while the Dodgers remain at home after their 3 game series with Miami. This one sets up nicely for an easy LA win. |
|||||||
08-20-22 | Broncos v. Bills -6.5 | Top | 15-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
#412 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -6.5 over Denver Broncos, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET - After last week’s win, the Bills have now won 9 straight NFL preseason games which is the 2nd best current streak behind the Ravens 21 straight games. It’s obvious that head coach Sean McDermott puts an emphasis on winning preseason games. He has stated he will play his starters “a healthy amount” this week including QB Josh Allen. Last week in their 27-24 win over Indianapolis, McDermott sat most of his starters and the Bills had 5 turnovers and still pulled out a win. They outgained the Colts, who played more of their starters including starting QB Matt Ryan, by 1.6 yards per play. Denver will not play their starters in this game according to new head coach Nathaniel Hackett who says he “isn’t a fan of the preseason”. Josh Johnson will start at QB followed by Brett Rypien for Denver who beat Dallas 17-7 last week but outgained the Cowboys by only 8 yards. We have one of the best teams in the NFL playing their starters extensively here vs a bunch of back ups for Denver. Laying under a TD is a solid situation. Take Buffalo. |
|||||||
08-17-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
#911 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are coming off a rare loss (in extra innings) last night and we like them to bounce back tonight. LA has been on a fantastic run winning 24 of their last 30 games and they’ve only lost back to back games twice since mid June. They have the 2nd best batting average in MLB since the All Star Break (3rd best on the season) and they’ve scored 156 runs during that stretch which is #1 in baseball, a full 27 runs more than Atlanta who has the 2nd most in that time. They were a bit unlucky last night as they outhit the Brewers 8-5 but lost 5-4 in 11 innings. Milwaukee was very fortunate to score 5 runs on only 5 hits as their bats continue to struggle. The Brewers have hit just .188 as a team over their last 10 games while barely averaging 3 RPG. Because they don’t hit for a high average, Milwaukee must hit HR’s to generate scoring and they are facing Dodger pitcher Gonsolin tonight who has allowed just 11 HR’s the entire season in 116 innings of work. He is 14-1 on the year with a WHIP of just 0.89 which is the 3rd best among starters in MLB. Gonsolin has allowed just 29 ER’s in 21 starts this season and Milwaukee doesn’t have a single player on their team that has more than 2 plate appearances life time vs him. LA has the 3rd best bullpen ERA when he exits so we look for Milwaukee to continue their offensive struggles. Lauer pitches for the Brewers and his numbers are solid with a 3.64 ERA, however his xFIP and xERA are both north of 4.00. Very few have been able to slow down this Dodgers offense averaging over 6 RPG since the break and we don’t expect Lauer to keep them in check today. LA has 80 wins on the season and amazingly 72 of those have come by at least 2 runs. Since the All Star Break they have 20 wins and all but 1 of came by 2 or more runs. Dodgers bounce back today and cover the -1.5 run line. |
|||||||
08-15-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
#901 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Phillies were on a roll winning 12 of 13 games before they ran into the red hot Mets over the weekend and lost 2 of 3. Their offense came to a screeching halt vs the Mets, however they faced 3 top of the line starting pitchers in Scherzer (1.93 ERA), DeGrom (1.62 ERA), and Bassitt (3.27 ERA). Prior to their series with the Mets, they had average 5.4 RPG over their previous 16 games. We fully expect the Phillies offense to take off here vs Mike Minor who has been terrible. The left hander has won 1 game this season and his ERA is over 6.00. He had made 7 starts at home this season and the Reds have lost all 7 of those games by an average score of 6.6 to 2.6. All 7 of those losses came by at least 2 runs. Dating back to last season, Minor has allowed a whopping 44 HR’s in 122 innings pitched which is more than 3 per 9 innings. Bad news facing a Phillies offense that averages 1.3 HR’s per 9 innings which is good for 6th in the Majors. On top of that, Cincy has the worst bullpen ERA in MLB so not much help on the back end in this game. Philadelphia’s Syndergaard hasn’t been his dominating self since his Tommy John surgery a few years back but he has still been solid. He’s pitched just 2 games for Philadelphia after being traded from the LA Angels and his ERA on the season is a solid 3.96. He’s facing a Reds line up that has averaged just 2.9 RPG over their last 10 scoring 2 runs or fewer in 7 of those games. We like Philly to win this game by at least 2 runs. |
|||||||
08-12-22 | Pirates v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - Nice situational spot here for SF with their top starter on the mound. The Giants played in San Diego on Wednesday and had yesterday off after their short trip home. Pittsburgh was playing @ Arizona yesterday and tonight will be playing their 8th consecutive road game in 8 days. The Pirates are 2-5 so far on this road trip that has taken them from the east coast (Baltimore) to the west coast (Arizona and now SF). They are 17 games below .500 away from home with a losing margin of -1.5 runs per game. SF sends lefty Rodon to the mound and he has been fantastic at home this year. His ERA in home games is just 1.76 and he has struck out 73 batters in just 51 innings. That’s a problem for a Pittsburgh offense that has struck out an average of 9.5 per 9 innings ranking them 29th in MLB out of 30 teams. They’ve struck out 365 times this year vs left handers which is by far the worst in the Majors. Pittsburgh also ranks 29th in batting average vs lefties at .219. Rodon faced the Pirates once this season and went 8 innings, allowed 2 hits and 0 runs. Bryse Wilson starts for Pittsburgh and while he’s coming off a solid outing in his most recent start, his season long numbers aren’t great. His ERA is close to 6.00 and opposing hitters have a .298 batting average vs Wilson. He’s allowed 100 baserunners in just 66 innings this season and his HR allowed rate is quite high at 1.65 per 9 innings. Wilson barely averages 4 innings per game with his pitch count often in the 80’s and lower. That means Pittsburgh’s bad bullpen, which has the 4th worst ERA in the league, will get plenty of work here as well. SF has a losing record on the season but they are the only team below .500 that has + run differential so they are better than their record indicates. We like this spot for the Giants and look for a 2+ run win tonight. |
|||||||
08-11-22 | Titans v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 44 h 39 m | Show |
#108 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Ravens -3.5 over Tennessee Titans, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Lots of things going for the Ravens in this one. First of all it’s quite obvious that head coach John Harbaugh wants to win in the pre-season. His well documented and talked about lifetime record 40-12 SU record in NFLX including 20 straight wins dating back to the 2016 season! They’ve won 12 of those 20 games by double digits and their average margin of victory in their 20 game winning streak is +13 PPG. Not only are the Ravens winning NFLX games at an incredible rate, they are covering to the tune of 25-5 ATS their last 30. Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel hasn’t shown much determination the pre-season winning just 4 of his 11 games since taking over the Titans in 2018. The QB advantage also is heavily in favor of Baltimore in this game. Tennessee starter Tannehill didn’t take a single snap in the pre-season last year and we doubt he will play in this game. That leaves Logan Woodside, who has thrown 3 career passes in the NFL, and rookie Malik Willis to guide this offense. Baltimore will most likely go without starting QB Jackson as well but we like their depth at that position much better. Tyler Huntley is the back up and he threw for over 1,000 yards last year taking over for Jackson when he was injured. After Huntley it will be Brett Hundley who has throw for almost 2,000 yards in his career. Tennessee is banged up in the defensive backfield and had to add 2 safeties to the roster this week so they have enough depth for this game. We’ll lay it Baltimore at home on Thursday night. |
|||||||
08-09-22 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
#902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Two teams heading in opposite directions here especially on offense. Over the last 10 games the Phillies have 9 wins and average 6.8 RPG. The Marlins have won 3 of their last 10 and they are averaging 2.3 RPG during that stretch. Miami has won just 6 of their last 20 games and 11 of their last 30. They have fallen completely out of the playoff race sitting at 10 games below .500. The Phils are right in the thick of things with a 60-48 record and have their ace on the mound today. Zack Wheeler has been lights out on the mound allowing 2 ER’s or fewer in 15 of his 20 starts this season. At home he’s been even better with an ERA of 1.58 and he’s allowed just 40 total hits in 64 innings of work at Citizens Bank Park. That’s a bad recipe for a Miami offense that has scored the fewest in MLB since the All Star Break at 44. Miami pitcher Garrett has solid overall numbers this season but his ERA was north of 5.00 in each of his last 2 seasons so he’s pitching above his head in our opinion. On the road this season he has an ERA of 4.23 and the Marlins have lost 4 of his last 6 starts away from home. He’s running into a Philadelphia offense that has the 4th best batting averaging since the All Star Break and they have scored the 5th most runs at 85, nearly double what Miami has scored since mid July. Over the last 10 games the Marlins have been outscored by an average of 2.3 – 3.6 (-1.3 RPG differential) while the Phillies have outscored their opponents 6.8 – 3.8 (+3.0 RPG differential). We like the Phillies to keep rolling and pick up an easy win here. |
|||||||
08-06-22 | Giants -1.5 v. A's | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
#981 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Oakland A’s, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET - San Fran was just swept by the red hot Dodgers and now they take a huge step down in competition facing Oakland who has the 2nd worst record in MLB and a run differential of -111 on the season. Rodon will start for SF and he’s been outstanding with an ERA of 3.00 but he’s actually pitching better than that number with an xERA of 2.77. He had 2 poor back to back outings coming out of the All Star Break but righted the ship in his most recent start holding the Cubs scoreless in 7 IP allowing just 2 hits. The lefty is facing an Oakland line up that ranks 29th or 30th in RPG, OPS, and batting average and vs southpaws at home this year the A’s are hitting just .189 and averaging 2.6 RPG. The Giants haven’t been hitting well over their last 10 games but nearly half of those games (4) came vs high level LA Dodger starting pitchers. They should look much better today vs Oakland starter Oller who has an ERA of 7.68, a WHIP of 1.73 and has the highest xFIP of any starting pitcher going today. Oller has bounced back and forth between starter and reliever this year. As a starter he’s been really bad allowing 30 ER’s in his 7 starts spanning 30 innings. He’s been his worst at home this year with an ERA of 9.00. Oakland is 17-34 at home this year and they are getting outscored by an average of 2 RPG! While SF does have a losing road record, they actually have a plus run differential away from home. We expect the A’s offense to struggle today while San Fran should be able to break out with a big game. Lay the -1.5 with the Giants. |
|||||||
07-24-22 | Angels v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* RUN LINE BET: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105) vs. LA Angels, 1:35 PM ET - The Braves have the 5th best total run differential in the Majors at +84 total runs on the season, the Angels are 22nd at minus -42 total runs. When playing on the road the Angels have an average run differential of -.96 runs per game, again one of the worst numbers in baseball. L.A. ranks 25th in runs per 9/innings overall at 3.99, 26th in team average at .229, 27th in OPS and strikeout more than any team in the Bigs. Their away numbers are even worse and if we look at their most recent ten games, we see they are scoring just 2.70 runs per 9/innings and hitting .199 as a team. Los Angeles will have a very tough time scoring runs in this contest against Ian Anderson who is 8-5 on the season with a 4.79 ERA. Anderson has pitched well in his last two starts allowing just 3 earned runs in 10.1 innings of work. Prior to his two solid outings he lost two games but those were against the Phillies and Dodgers who are two of the higher scoring teams in the Majors. The Braves offense is one of the best in the Biz with a team average of .248 (10th), an On Base Percentage of .758 (4th), they rank 5th in runs per 9/innings and are 2nd in home runs per game. An added bonus to today’s game is the fact they are facing the left-handed starter Reid Detmers for the Angels who is 2-3 on the year with a 4.11 ERA, 0-1 on the road. The Braves are one of the better hitting teams off lefties this season at .257, but in their last ten games against southpaws they are scoring 7.02 runs/9 innings and hitting .290. The Braves are 33-20 SU at home and may only need 4 runs to cover this spread considering the lack of hitting by the Angels. |
|||||||
07-23-22 | Angels v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* RUN LINE BET: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105) vs. LA Angels, 7:20 PM ET - The Braves have the 5th best total run differential in the Majors at +79 total runs on the season, the Angels are 21st at minus -37 total runs. When playing on the road the Angels have an average run differential of -.94 runs per game, again one of the worst numbers in baseball. L.A. ranks 25th in runs per 9/innings overall at 3.99, 26th in team average at .229, 27th in OPS and strikeout more than any team in the Bigs. Their away numbers are even worse and if we look at their most recent ten games, we see they are scoring just 2.70 runs per 9/innings and hitting .199 as a team. Los Angeles will have a very tough time scoring runs in this contest against Kyle Wright who is 11-4 on the season with a 2.95 ERA. Wright is 7-1 in his last 9 starts with one no decision and is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball with 107 on the year. The Braves offense is one of the best in the Biz with a team average of .248 (10th), an On Base Percentage of .758 (4th), they rank 5th in runs per 9/innings and are 2nd in home runs per game. An added bonus to today’s game is the fact they are facing the left-handed starter Patrick Sandoval for the Angels who is 3-4 on the year with a 2.95 ERA, but hasn’t pitched well of late allowing 21 hits in his last 16.1 innings of work. The Braves are one of the better hitting teams off lefties this season at .257, but in their last ten games against southpaws they are scoring 7.02 runs/9 innings and hitting .290. The Braves are 32-20 SU at home and may only need 4 runs to cover this spread considering the lack of hitting by the Angels. |
|||||||
07-22-22 | Rockies v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* RUN LINE Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) vs. Colorado Rockies, 8:20 PM ET - Milwaukee limped into the All-Star Game having lost three straight games to the Giants and 4 of their last five overall. The break came at a good time for Milwaukee, and we expect a renewed effort here at home in the opener of this series with the Rockies. The Brewers send their Ace to the mound with Corbin Burnes who is 7-4 on the season with a 2.14 ERA and miniscule .90 WHIP. Colorado will have a tough time getting men on base versus Burnes who has 144 strikeouts on the season, just 29 walks and 12 home runs. Colorado has solid overall offensive numbers on the season but much of that is due to their home field where they average 5.88 runs per game and hit .287 as a team. On the road though the numbers are drastically different for the Rockies. Colorado hits just .233 on the road and score 3.02 runs per game which is the second-lowest number in baseball. The Rockies also hit just .212 against right-handed pitchers on the road and score even fewer runs/9 innings at 2.75. Milwaukee is the 12th highest scoring team in baseball at 4.57 runs/9 innings and do it with the long-ball ranking 4th in the Majors in home runs. The Brewers hit 1.38 home runs per game at home which is the 4th highest number in MLB. Milwaukee should get plenty of scoring opportunities versus Antonio Senzatela who is 3-5 on the year with a 4.95 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. He’s been even worse on the road at 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. Senzatela is expected to see his pitching statistics worsen with an xERA of 5.92 and xFIP of 4.27 which are both higher than his current numbers. The moneyline is out of the question here but the Run Line is in the wheelhouse at -1.5 (-125). |
|||||||
07-12-22 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
#960 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 9:45 PM ET - The Giants lost the series opener last night 4-3 and we expect a bounce back here with their top starter on the mound. Logan Webb has been very solid all season for the Giants with an ERA of 2.98 and he has allowed more than 3 ER’s just twice in his 17 starts. He’s been better at home with an ERA of 2.63 and he’s pitching outstanding right now with an ERA of 1.80 over his last 3 starts. Arizona’s offense has been solid over their last 10 games (despite 4-6 record) but they’ve faced only 1 starter during that stretch with an ERA of less than 4.00. We expect Arizona’s hitters to struggle tonight finally facing a top of the line starter. The Giants offense, on the other hand, should have a field day facing Dallas Keuchel. He has been terrible all season showing zero signs of a potential turn around. Keuchel has an ERA of 7.63 and opposing hitters have a batting average of .322 vs him. Not only are teams hitting the ball hard off him he’s also walking nearly 5 batters per 9 innings which has pushed his WHIP on the season to almost 2.00. On the road he’s been a trainwreck with an ERA of 11.81 and he’s allowed an absolutely ridiculous 38 baserunners in just 16 innings! SF ranks 5th in MLB in RPG and they are averaging over 5 RPG vs left handers this season. The Giants should rake offensively facing Keuchel until he turns the game over to the 8th worst bullpen (ERA) in MLB. Despite last night’s tight loss, San Francisco has dominated this series at home winning 17 of the last 21 meetings. We like them to win this one by 2+ runs. |
|||||||
07-10-22 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* HOUSTON ASTROS Run Line -1.5 (even) vs. Oakland A’s, 4 PM ET - This is as much a play against the A’s as it is a play on the Astros. Oakland is the worst offense in baseball ranking last in runs/9 innings, team average (.209), OPS and are 29th in home runs per game. This A’s team averages just 3.26 runs per game on the season and only 2.90 runs per game their last ten. They will face Jake Orduzzi who is coming off a bad outing against the hot-hitting Royals but expect a better start here versus this pathetic offense. In their last ten games the A’s are hitting just .197 against right-handed starters and scoring an average of 3.21 runs/9 innings in that span. Houston should bounce back here and have been “money” when coming off a loss winning 72% of their games by an average of +1.5 runs per game. Houston is +11 total hits in the two games of this series and will put up runs in this one. The Astros have the 11th best scoring offense in MLB at 4.57 runs/9 innings, rank 16th in team batting average, 4th in OPS and 3rd in homeruns. The Astros should put up runs versus the left-handed Cole as Houston is hitting .284 versus Lefties their last ten games, scoring 6.20 runs/9 innings. In their last ten games overall, the Astros are outscoring their opponents by 2.80 runs/9 innings. Fade the horrible hitting A's in this one and back a Houston team that can dominate at the plate. |
|||||||
07-04-22 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
#970 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Kansas City Royals, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - We were on the red hot Astros -1.5 yesterday at home vs the Angels and picked up a 4-2 win. Houston has now won 14 of their last 17 games with 11 of those wins coming by at least 2 runs. As we mentioned yesterday, their schedule during that stretch has been very tough as well including 9 games vs the Yankees & Mets. In their 3 games series vs the Angels, the Astros outscored LA 21-4 and had 33 hits to just 8 for LA. Houston has the top pitching staff in the Majors and today they bring Odorizzi off the DL to make his first start since mid May. He was solid prior to his injury allowing more than 3 ER’s just once in his 7 starts with a home ERA of 2.19. Odorizzi looked good in his 2 rehab starts in the Minors allowing 5 hits in 8 innings. We don’t expect him to pitch deep into this one but we’re fine with that as he is backed up by the top bullpen in MLB with an ERA of 2.65. The Houston pitching staff as a whole has been fantastic all season long and especially as of late allowing 2 runs or fewer in 8 of their last 9 games. KC ranks 24th or lower in RPG, OPS, and HR per 9 innings so we don’t expect them to do much offensively in this game. Houston’s offense has kicked it into high gear averaging 5 RPG over their last and their average winning margin over that stretch is almost +3 RPG. They’ll face KC starter Heasley who has only 1 win on the season and has allowed 68 baserunners in just 45 innings. While Houston has the top bullpen in the league, KC has the 3rd worst bullpen ERA and the 2nd worst WHIP. KC is 19 games below .500 with a run differential of -99 on the season. Houston is 24 games above .500 with a run differential of +90 and playing their best baseball of the season. We’ll lay the -1.5 here. |
|||||||
07-01-22 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 19-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-115) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, 7PM ET - We are not ready to lay a big price with the Brewers and Burnes here but we will bet the value of the run line. Burnes is Milwaukee’s best pitcher with a 6-4 record, 2.41 ERA and 0.92 WHIP on the season. In his last 4 starts he is 3-1, having allowed a total of 6 earned runs in 24.3 innings of work. Burnes on the road this season has been nearly unhittable with a 3-1 record and 1.64 ERA. Milwaukee also has one of the better bullpens in the Bigs so after a strong start by Burnes they’ll close the door on a Pirates team that is 28th in runs/9 innings, 28th in team batting average, 28th in OPS. Yesterday the Brewers pounded out more hits (12) than the Pirates but got a horrible start from Houser in their 7-8 loss. The Pirates are sending Contreras to the Hill who is 2-1 on the season with a 2.76 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. In his last four starts Contreras has allowed 8 earned runs in 18.3 innings of work. Most recently he had some control issues against Tampa Bay with 5 walks. Milwaukee is 13th in runs/9 innings, 14th in OPS and 4th in homeruns. Milwaukee scores more than 1 full run per game against right-hander starters than the Pirates do and Pittsburgh is 27th in the league in total run differential at minus -100 on the season. After a loss yesterday we like Milwaukee to bounce back here big. |
|||||||
06-25-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:15 PM ET - We were on the Giants at home last night (-1.5 runs) and they lost to the Reds 4-2. Tonight we get them in a great spot, off a home loss, facing a poor pitcher, and SF has their top pitcher on the mound. Despite that, we’re getting a very similar price at -1.5 Runs (-115) when last night was right around even money at -1.5. Logan Webb has been outstanding for the Giants with an ERA of 3.26 and an xFIP of 3.15. At home he’s been even better with a 4-1 record and a 2.74 ERA. He’s facing a Cincinnati offense that struggles big time on the road with a batting average of just .211 while scoring only 3 RPG (the Reds average 6 RPG at home). On top of that, the Cincinnati lineup is very unfamiliar with Webb with only 11 total plate appearances (0 hits) giving Webb a big advantage especially early in the game. Despite last night’s win, the Reds have still lost 7 of their last 8 games and have a road record of 12-23. Cincy sends left hander Minor to the mound and he’s been poor this season. He has an ERA of 6.97 and opponents are hitting .271 vs him. The Reds are 1-3 in his 4 starts this season and he’s allowed 7 HR’s already in just 4 appearances for an average of 3 HR’s per 9 innings pitched which is terrible. He’s facing a SF offense that is 4th in MLB in RPG, 10th in HR’s per 9 innings, and 11th in OPS so this is not a good match up for Minor. When Minor is done for the evening, the Reds back him up with a bullpen that has the worst ERA and the 2nd worst WHIP in the Majors. The Reds road RPG differential is -1.9 on the season so laying 1.5 is not a stretch here. San Fran sits 6 games above .500 and has a run differential of +40 on the season while Cincinnati is 22 games below .500 and has a differential of -77. Lay the -1.5 at home with the Giants. |
|||||||
06-24-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
#960 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Cincinnati, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - The Giants are back home after losing 3 of 4 @ Atlanta. However, all 3 losses in that series were by 1 run and San Francisco actually outhit the Braves and had more men on base despite coming up short in 3 of 4 games. Alex Cobb is on the hill for the Giants and he is pitching well above what his ERA might indicate. His ERA is 5.62 on the season yet his xERA is 2.25 and his xFIP is 2.64 which is the lowest of any starting pitcher on the slate for Friday. He’s been extremely unlucky with a BABIP of .381 and his overall numbers at home are much better than his road numbers. Cincinnati enters this game having lost 7 straight including 6 in a row in their recent home stand. They have allowed an average of over 7 RPG during that 7 games stretch and they’ve given up at least 5 runs in each of those games. Ashcraft gets the call for Cincinnati. The rookie has solid overall numbers but he’s on the decline right now. Over his last 2 starts he’s allowed 10 ER’s in just 9.2 innings on 17 hits. The Giants saw him in late May so they should have a good feel at the plate tonight. When Ashcraft exits, the Reds have the worst bullpen ERA in the Majors and the 2nd worst WHIP. The Giants also have an edge at the plate where they rank 4th in MLB in RPG and put up over 5 RPG at home. The Reds are a night and day difference home and away at the plate. At home they average 6 RPG and on the road just 3 RPG to go along with their 11-23 road record. Their road RPG differential is -2 on the season. On the season San Fran has a run differential of +42 while Cincinnati’s is -79. There is a reason this line opened -180 and jumped to above -200 despite Ashcraft having better ERA number than Cobb, who is drastically undervalued. Lay the -1.5 at home with the Giants. |
|||||||
06-22-22 | Royals v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Angels -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City, Wednesday at 9:45 PM ET - KC won the first 2 games of this series, each by a single run. This game will end KC’s tough west coast trip with their 9th road game in 10 days before they head home to play Oakland on Friday. The Angels bats got hot with 11 runs yesterday but they lost with Detmers on the mound. LA has now lost 6 straight with Detmers as the starting pitcher. If they can keep their bats hot today vs a mediocre KC pitcher, the Angels should be sitting great with Ohtani on the mound. He’s been their most consistent starter with an ERA of 3.28 and an xFIP of just 2.92, the lowest xFIP of any starting pitcher on Wednesday. He’s allowed just 1 ER in his last 2 starts spanning 13 innings. KC will have a much tougher time offensively tonight against Ohtani who has averaged 11.5 K’s per 9 innings while walking just over 2 batters. We look for LA’s bats to put up solid numbers again tonight facing Daniel Lynch who has the 5th highest xFIP of any starting pitcher today and an ERA of 5.19. Lynch is coming off a solid start, however that was vs the weak hitting A’s (worst hitting team in MLB). In his 3 starts prior to that, he allowed 16 ER’s in just 15 innings allowing a whopping 29 baserunners during that 3 game stretch! If he struggles, which we expect, the bullpen is never much help for KC. They have the 3rd worst ERA and worst WHIP in MLB. Overall, KC’s pitching staff ranks in the bottom 5 in ERA, batting average allowed, OBP allowed, and OPS allowed. Because of that weak pitching staff, the Royals need to score runs to have a chance. In fact, in their 25 wins this year (25-42 record) they have averaged 5.7 RPG. That won’t happen tonight vs Ohtani and the Angels. LA prevents what would be an embarrassing sweep at home vs KC and wins this one by at least 2 runs. |
|||||||
06-18-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -1.5 on the Run Line over Washington, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Aaron Nola is on the hill for the Phillies and he’s been outstanding all season. His ERA is 3.48 but his xERA and xFIP are much lower telling us he’s pitching even better than his already solid ERA. He averages 10 K’s per 9 innings and just 1 walk so baserunners will be few for the Nationals on Saturday. Nola has faced current Washington hitters for nearly 100 career plate appearances and held them to a batting average of only .190. The Washington offense ranks 22nd in RPG, 20th in OPS, and 28th in HR’s. At home they average just 3.7 RPG and vs right handers that drops to 3.0 RPG. Gray is on the hill for the Nats and while he’s pitched better over his last few games he’s been a bit lucky to keep his ERA at 4.33. His FIP is 5.43 and he’s stranded 83% of the batters which have reached base which is well above the league average of 70% meaning his ERA could be quite a bit higher had he not gotten a bit lucky with his LOB% numbers. His ERA at home is north of 7.00 and he’s struggled with control walking over 4 per 9 innings. Gray gives up a ton of HR’s (2 per 9 innings) which is a terrible match up vs this red hot Philadelphia offense that is 3rd in MLB averaging 1.33 HR’s per game. The Phillies have won 14 of their last 16 games and over the last 10 they have a batting average of .289 while averaging 6 RPG. Philly has won 10 straight games vs the Nationals and 12 of the last 13 in Washington. We like the Phillies to win this one by 2+ runs vs the struggling Nationals who have an 11-24 record at home this season. |
|||||||
06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, Game 6 @ 9 PM ET - It obviously didn’t work in Game 5 but we will stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are now 12-2 SU/ATS their last fourteen off a loss and a near perfect 7-1 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Boston was 28-13 SU at home during the regular season with the 5th best average point differential of +7PPG. We don’t feel the Celtics will succumb to the pressures of this situation as they have too many good players that can step up in any given situation. The Warriors are 4-5 SU on the road in the playoffs and they weren’t a great road team in the regular season with a 22-19 SU record and a +/- of 1.2PPG. Granted, Steph Curry is not going to miss every 3-pointer he takes in this game as he did in the last, but the Celtics defense will again provide a stiff challenge and make every point tough to come by. This is going to be a 7-game series and we like the Celtics to get a double-digit win in this one. |
|||||||
06-14-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 run -105 vs. Baltimore Orioles, 7 PM ET - The Jays have been one of the best hitting teams in the Big Leagues this season with an average of 8.49 hits per game. In their last three games the Blue Jays have pounded out an average of 11.67 hits per game which includes 19 hits last night against the O’s. In their last nine games the Jays have scored 6 or more runs seven times while averaging 7.2 runs per game. Toronto has a top 10 offense in terms of runs scored per 9 innings, team batting average .257, rank 2nd in OPS and 8th in home runs. Conversely, Baltimore averages just 4.05 runs per 9 innings which ranks 25th in the league, hit .230 as a team (26th) and are 25th in OPS. The Orioles also strike out 9.13 times per game which is 26th in the Bigs. Baltimore will send Lyles to the mound to slow down the Jays offense, but we don’t see that happening. Lyles has given up 10 earned runs in his last ten innings of work on 17 hits and that was against Kansas City and Seattle who both rank in the bottom half of MLB in hits per game. Toronto has Yusei Kikuchi scheduled to take the bump for the Jays, who hasn’t been great with a 2-2 record, but the Lefty should have success against this O’s team that is hitting just .230 against Lefties this season and averaging just 3.66 runs/9 innings. Toronto has a +34-run differential on the year which ranks them 9th best in the league. Baltimore has a net differential of -38 runs on the season which is 21st. |
|||||||
06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +4 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - Steph Curry is great! He literally carried the Warriors to a win in Game 4 with 43 points on 14 of 26 shooting overall and 7 of 14 from Deep. Those types of numbers are tough to duplicate no matter how good you are, and we just don’t see his supporting cast stepping up enough in this one to get a cover. The amazing stat of this series is this, despite every game being decided by 9 or more points, the total points scored by both teams is 422 to 421. This game is going to be tight to the end as both know the winner of this game is more than likely going to win the series. We must stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are 12-1 SU/ATS their last thirteen off a loss and a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Now this doesn’t mean we are backing Boston to win here, but it’s a clear indicator of just how good they are off a loss. The Celtics are 16-3-1 ATS their last twenty on the road and they owned the best average point differential in the NBA during the regular season at +7.6PPG. I know some guys will be on the Moneyline here with Boston and I don’t disagree with the assessment but I can’t ignore the points as Golden State may win but it’s going to be close. |
|||||||
06-11-22 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The Phillies are red hot. They’ve won 8 straight and their bats have been smoking to say the least. During their 8 game winning streak they’ve reached at least 6 runs 7 times and they are averaging 7.5 RPG during that stretch. If they get anywhere near that today they should cover this 1.5 easily as the Phillies have their top pitcher Wheeler on the mound. He’s allowed just 6 ER’s in his last 6 starts and while his ERA of 3.14 is very good, his xERA 2.83 and his FIP is 2.30 telling us he’s pitching better than his actual ERA this season. He’s been very unlucky with a BABIP (batting average balls in play) of .338 and has very solid numbers despite that. Arizona’s offense ranks 24th in RPG, 29th in batting average and 22nd in OPS. They are just 3-5 on their current 8 game road trip despite playing Pittsburgh and Cincinnati the first 7 games of that stretch. They’ve averaged just over 4 RPG on this road trip but they’ve been very fortunate as they are averaging just 6.75 hits per game on this road trip. Philly will be facing Bumgarner for Arizona and after a hot start to the season he has been struggling to say the least. After allowing just 4 ER’s in his first 5 starts, Bumgarner has given up 18 ER’s in his last 5 outings. He’s allowed 41 baserunners in his last 29 innings so we look for the Phillies red hot bats to have plenty of opportunities in this game. In yesterday’s game, Philadelphia scored 6 runs in the first 2 innings vs Arizona ace Zach Gallen who had allowed more than 2 ER’s just ONCE all season. The Phillies are 29-29 on the season yet have a run differential of +36. Arizona is 28-32 with a run differential of -44. We think Arizona will struggle offensively today vs Wheeler while Philly will continue their onslaught at the plate. Lay the 1.5 runs (-115) in this game. |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Cubs v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON NY Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line over Chicago Cubs, Friday at 7 PM ET - We’ll lay -1.5 runs (-120) with the Yanks here who have the largest run differential in MLB at +104 which equates to an average score of 4.9 – 3.0. At home they’ve beaten teams by an average of 2 RPG and over their last 10 games their margin of victory is +3.1 RPG. NY has the best record in the Majors at 41-16 and at home they are 23-7. They are red hot offensively right now averaging 6.5 RPG over their last 10 and they’ve gotten to at least 10 runs in 3 of their last 6 games. They’ll face Cubs left hander Miley in this one who is just coming off they DL with a bad shoulder. He’s pitched in only 3 games this season and while his ERA is 3.38 his xFIP is much higher indicating he’s due for a regression. The Cubs step into this game 10 games under .500 and have lost 4 of their last 5 games. They are facing Yankee starter Severino who has an ERA of 2.95 but an xERA of 2.60 and NY has won 8 of the 10 games he has started with 7 of those wins coming by at least 2 runs. NY has the much better bullpen as well in this game. They Yankees have dominated inferior opponents at home with a 69-26 record their last 95 vs teams with a losing record. The Cubs are just 21-47 their last 48 games overall vs a team with a winning record. We like NY to win this one by 2+ runs at home tonight. |
|||||||
06-09-22 | Rockies v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -124 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -1.5 on Run Line over Colorado, Thursday at 3:45 PM ET - The Rockies send left hander Gomber to the hill who has been a disaster as of late. In his last 2 starts, spanning 6.1 innings, he has allowed 17 ER’s on 17 hits! ON the road this season Gomber has an ERA of almost 7.00 and he’s won just 1 game away from home this year. SF has done well vs lefties averaging just under 6 RPG at home this season. They’ve also hit Gomber very well in the past as current Giant players have a lifetime average of .341 vs the left hander. When he exits, enter the 2nd worst bullpen in all of baseball with an ERA of 5.02. It’s not just the “thin air” in Denver that has caused the poor numbers from the Colorado relievers as their ERA away from home is worse than it is at Coors Field. The SF offense should have a field day at home this afternoon. The Giants will counter with Logan Webb who has a solid 3.82 ERA, however his xERA and xFIP are both lower meaning he’s actually pitching better than his current numbers. He’s a perfect 3-0 at home this season and the Giants have won 6 of his last 8 starts. Last year Webb was 11-3 with an ERA of 2.97 so he has been extremely solid for this team. He’s facing a Colorado team that has only 8 road wins all season which is tied for least in MLB. Their offense falls off a cliff on the road where they average just 3 RPG and only 2.7 RPG vs right handed pitchers. Colorado is getting beat by an average score of 5.5 – 3.0 on the road this season. They are also only 17-35 their last 52 trips to San Francisco. We like the Giants to roll in this one. |
|||||||
06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, Game 3 Wednesday 8 PM ET - If you spend any amount of time watching the “talking heads” on ESPN, TNT or the rest of the hype media, we recommend you don’t. I love how those guys, who aren’t held accountable when they lose, just spew predictions without consequences. Where I’m going is this, after a dominating Game 1 Boston win the so-called experts were saying the series was over, the Celtics were the much better team and going to win the series etc…Then Golden State crushes the C’s in Game 2 and they all flip-flop to the Warriors and are now predicting them to win again in Game 3. How about nobody over-reacts and looks at this objectively. We like Boston to bounce back after that humiliating loss and get a resounding win at home in Game 3. The Celts were 28-13 SU at home in the regular season with the 5th best average of Margin of Victory at +7PPG. Granted the Celtics are 5-4 SU in the postseason at home but overall they are 4-0 SU/ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +16.25PPG. On the year, the C’s are 26-12 SU off a loss, 12-5 SU at home off a loss, 10-7 ATS. Golden State has already lost 4 road games in the playoffs and were an unimpressive 22-19 SU away from home during the regular season with a +/- of +1.2PPG. We also like the fact Scott Foster will be officiating this game which means Draymond Green will be on a shorter leash than normal. Boston will have great energy at home tonight and win big. |
|||||||
06-07-22 | A's v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
#928 ASA TOP PLAY ON Atlanta -1.5 on Run Line over Oakland, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Atlanta comes home off a red hot run @ Colorado sweeping the Rockies in a 4 games series and outscoring them 30-16. Oakland, on the other hand, has lost 9 of their last 10 games and their bats continue to struggle scoring 2 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6 games. The A’s offense ranks either 29th or 30th (out of 30 teams) in RPG, batting average, OPS, and HR’s per 9 innings. Those numbers won’t improve vs Atlanta’s Kyle Wright who has allowed 1 ER or fewer in 3 of his last 4 starts. Wright has an ERA of 2.41 and is allowing opposing hitters a batting average of just .191. Not one hitter on Oakland’s roster as ever faced Wright giving him a big advantage in this game. While Oakland bats are ice cold, Atlanta’s hitters have been on a roll with a batting average of .280 scoring an average of 5.7 RPG over their last 10. They have been very solid vs lefties all season long averaging 5.2 RPG. They are facing left hander Irvin in this game and while his overall numbers look solid, he is due for a regression. Irvin’s ERA is 2.96, however his xERA is 5.06 and his xFIP is 4.39 which gives us an indication of how he’s actually pitching. His numbers on the road haven’t been anywhere near his home numbers with an ERA of 5.09 away from home this season. While Oakland’s current roster has never faced Wright, Atlanta’s roster has had huge success vs Irvin with a whopping .588 batting average in his career. We’re also backed up by the much better bullpen in this game (6th in ERA compared to Oakland 20th in ERA). We have the better starting pitcher, better bullpen, and much hotter hitting team in this game. We’ll lay the 1.5 runs at -115. |
|||||||
06-03-22 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto -1.5 on the Run Line over Minnesota, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - There isn’t a hotter offensive team in MLB than Toronto right now and they are facing a Minnesota team that is decimated due to injuries and Covid restrictions. The Jays have won 8 straight games and their offense has put up at least 6 runs in all but one of those games. During that 8 game stretch they are averaging 7 RPG and they’ve done some serious damage vs a number of top notch starting pitchers. This team overall probably isn’t quite as good as their 30-20 record as their run differential isn’t great, however they are red hot right now. As we mentioned they are also facing a Minnesota team that is nowhere near 100% and struggling right now. Two of Minnesota’s better offensive players, Correa and Celestino are out due to Covid. Royce Lewis, hitting .300, just came back from a 12 day hiatus due to injury and had to go right back on the IL so he is not available. Now we add in a number of other key players due to Canada’s Covid policy that players must be vaccinated to enter the country. That takes out starting OF Kepler and 3 pitchers that work out of the Minnesota bullpen all unavailable for this series. The Twins come into this game having lost 4 of 5 games @ Detroit, one of the worst teams in MLB, and Minnesota scored only 2 total runs in their last 3 games vs the Tigers. The Twins have won just 3 of their last 10 games and all 10 of those games were vs KC or Detroit who have a combined record of 37-63! In fact, in a weird scheduling situation, the Twins have faced either Detroit or KC in 15 straight games and prior to that they faced Oakland. So Minnesota has played 18 straight games vs the 3 teams who have the worst records in the American League and they are just 10-8 in those games. They take a big step up in competition here and are facing a solid starting pitcher. Toronto will go with left hander Kikuchi on the mound and he has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 8 of his 9 starts. The Minnesota offense is hitting .167 over their last 10 games vs lefties while averaging less than 1 run per 9 innings. The Twins pulled up Chi Chi Gonzalez from the Minors to make his first MLB appearance this season. He has pitched some at the MLB level but not successfully as his ERA’s over the last 3 seasons were 6.46, 6.86, and 5.29. Now facing a red hot offense we expect him to have problems in this game. Toronto is rolling right now, they are 17-8 at home this season, and Minnesota has too many key players out to hang in this one. We’ll take Toronto at -1.5 on the run line at even money |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 9 PM ET - The best part about this series is the fact that we have the two best teams vying for the Championship and it should be a fantastic series. These were the two best defensive teams in the league during the regular season allowing just 1.070-points per possession. Boston was the better offensive team during the regular season, but the Warriors have flipped the switch in the postseason and have averaged 1.171-points per possession. The Celtics have a pair of quality series wins over the Bucks and Heat, but Milwaukee was without Khris Middleton and the Heat played games without Butler, Herro and Lowry. The Celtics defense contributed to some of the Heat’s 3-point shooting struggles, but a bigger part of the equation was just poor shooting by Miami. Now the Celtics face a Warriors team that is dialed in from beyond the Arc. Golden State just faced the 4th best 3-point percentage defense in the NBA of the Mavericks and they torched them from Deep by hitting 59 of 143 or 41%. Golden State is 40-10 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +10.4PPG. Boston was good on the road this season at 30-20 SU but the young Celtics are faced with their biggest challenge ever in this pressure packed environment. Golden State is 9-0 SU at home in the playoffs and they’ve won those games by an average of +15PPG. This is going to be a great series but we have to side with the veteran home team in the opener. |
|||||||
05-29-22 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -2.5 over Miami Heat, Game 7 Sunday 8:30 PM ET - If you’ve spent any time watching the NBA playoffs you better know the Celtics are the better team and capable of winning the title this season. Yes, Miami has the best player with Jimmy Butler but he doesn’t have enough supporting talent around him right now. Jimmy hasn’t shown up in a few games so I don’t trust him here when he’s less than 100% on a bum knee. Boston has the better roster and have multiple players capable of taking over the game themselves in Tatum, Brown, Smart and Horford. Home court doesn’t mean much here considering the road team has won 4 games already in this series and it’s clear the oddsmakers agree with the road team favored. In fact, Boston is 20-4 SU this season when favored on the road and they’ve won those games by an average of +14.5PPG. I like Boston off a loss. The Celtics are 25-11, 23-13 ATS this season overall when coming off a loss. They are 10-1 SU/ATS their last eleven off a loss including a 5-0 record in the playoffs. Without Butler’s 40+ points in Game 6 the Heat are blown out. Lowry has struggled with his shooting until the last game and we don’t expect a repeat performance in this pressure situation. Prior to the Playoffs we liked Boston to get to the Finals and we’ll stick with that prediction and like them to get a win here. |
|||||||
05-27-22 | Astros -1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
#977 ASA 9* TOP PLAY ON Houston -1.5 on Run Line over Seattle, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Houston is -200 at most places in this one and by laying -1.5 runs we can knock that down to -120. Seattle is struggling right now to say the least. They have lost 6 straight games and 8 of their last 9. They have been outscored by 19 runs over their last 6 games or an average of -3.2 RPG. They were just swept at home in a 2 game series vs Oakland who has a 19-28 record on the season and they were outhit 21 to 9 in those 2 games. Now they face one of the top pitchers in MLB in Justin Verlander so we don’t expect their offense to catch fire here. Verlander has allowed just 7 ER’s in 8 starts this season and over his last 3 starts he has not allowed a single ER in 19 innings of work. His WHIP is a miniscule 0.72 and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .129 vs Verlander. He’s faced Seattle twice this season and the Astros have won those 2 games by a combined score of 11-2. In those 2 starts he’s allowed 2 ER’s in 14.2 innings with 11 K’s and no walks. Flexen is on the mound for Seattle and his numbers aren’t great this season. His ERA is almost 5.00 and opposing teams have a batting average of .275 when he is pitching. While Verlander is peaking right now, Flexen has struggled his last 3 starts allowing 14 ER’s in 14 innings. He has made 8 starts this year and Seattle has won 1 of those games. When the 2 starters exit, Houston has a huge edge in the bullpen leading MLB in ERA while Seattle is 25th. Houston is 4-2 this year vs Seattle and in their most recent series in early May, the Astros outscored the M’s 14-2 in 3 games. Seattle has a -29 run differential on the season while Houston sits at +47 (3rd in MLB behind Dodgers and Yankees). We like Houston to win this one by at least 2 runs. |
|||||||
05-27-22 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Blues | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals +155) over St Louis Blues, Friday at 8:05 PM ET - This Avalanche team that blew a 3-0 lead and lost Game 5 on home ice will bounce back here. That is the kind of loss strong teams bounce back from and certainly the Avs are the much stronger team in terms of how they match up with St Louis. The Avalanche, prior to the Game 5 loss, had won 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams. Also, 8 of last 10 Colorado wins in this series have been by a margin of 2 or more goals. In all games, 9 of last 11 Avalanche wins have come by a margin of 2 or more goals. Colorado had won 7 of 8 playoff games in this post-season before the Game 5 loss and are set up well for a big bounce back here at a solid comeback price on the puck line with laying the 1.5 goals. The road team has won 4 straight meetings and 8 of the last 10 between these teams and the strong trend away from home ice continues here. Road team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Colorado at plus money (currently +155 range) is a big value play here. |
|||||||
05-24-22 | Royals v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 102 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
#930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona -1.5 on the Run Line over Kansas City, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - Laying -1.5 runs here knocks the money line down to about even money. Arizona throws their ace Zac Gallen vs the light hitting Royals tonight. Gallen has been fantastic all season and we just don’t see KC’s offense doing much of anything tonight. Gallen has allowed just 5 ER’s all season in 7 starts for an ERA of 1.14. He’s been even better at home allowing 2 ER’s in 24 innings for an ERA of 0.75. The Royals offense has struggled ranking 24th in runs scored per game and their run differential of -60 is the worst in the American League. They have lost 7 of their last 9 games and 6 of those losses have come by at least 2 runs. Arizona’s offensive numbers for the season are not impressive due to a terrible start to the season at the plate. They’ve looked much better as of late averaging over 5 RPG through their last 10 games. They’ve hit .270 and scored nearly 7 RPG during that 10 game stretch vs right handed pitchers. Tonight they face righty Johnathan Heasley who has been a career minor leaguer for the most part. He has a total of 23 IP in the Majors in his 5 year career. This season he has pitched 8.1 innings, walked 7 batters and allowed 15 base runners. The Royals lost both of his starts this year by a combined score of 6 to 1. He has an ERA this season of 4.32 but he’s been rather lucky has his xERA is above 6.00. If Heasley has a short stint tonight, the KC bullpen ranks 3rd worst in the Majors in ERA and over their last 10 games the relievers have an ERA of almost 7.00. We like Arizona’s offense to have success tonight while KC will struggle to put numbers up vs one of the top starters in MLB. We’ll lay 1.5 runs in this one. |
|||||||
05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 4 Monday 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics laid an egg in Game 3 against the Heat and will bounce back here on their home court. Boston was flat in the previous game, scoring just 18 points in the 1st quarter after allowing 39. Miami was in control throughout the entire game before the C’s made it interesting late. Tatum had a horrible night for Boston by going 3 of 14 from the field for just 10-points so expect a much better showing in Game 4. Miami could be without their best defender in this game as Jimmy Butler only played 19+ minutes in G3 after reaggravating a lingering knee injury. Not only does that hurt Miami’s defense and primary defender on Tatum or Brown, it takes 21.4PPG and 6RPG away from their offense. Strangely enough, the Heat have only won 2 of the 12 quarters played in this series, yet still hold a 2-1 series advantage. The Law of Averages will start to even out beginning in Game 4 which is now a must-win for Boston. Boston is 24-11 SU when coming off a loss this season with the best average Margin of Victory in the league at +7.6PPG. Including the post season the C’s are 32-16 SU at home and they’ve won those games by +6.8PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road in the playoffs and the three losses have come by an average of 10PPG. If Butler plays or doesn’t we still like Boston big at home. |
|||||||
05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -2.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - This series shifts to Dallas and the host is going to get a home win here. Golden State blew the Mavs out in Game 1, then Dallas jumped out to a big lead in Game 2 early, then produced just 45 points in the second half to lose by 9. Dallas is in a must win situation here and elite teams find a way to win these games. The Mavs were 29-12 SU at home this season with a +/- of +6.3PPG. Dallas is 5-1 SU at home in the playoffs and their average margin of victory is +11.8PPG. Golden State was 22-19 SU on the road in the regular season which is solid, but they haven’t been great in the postseason with three losses away from home. One of those losses was a 30-point blowout in Memphis. Dallas was 25-11 SU this season off a loss, 10-4 at home. Their average margin of victory when coming off a loss is +6.0PPG. Golden State is 0-4 ATS their last four road games, Dallas has covered 7 of their last eight at home as a chalk. Luka and company will find a way to get this home win! |
|||||||
05-21-22 | White Sox v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -1.5 on Run Line over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 1 PM ET - These 2 met last weekend and the Yankees took 3 of 4 games in Chicago. In that series NY outscored the Sox 32 to 15 and out hit them with a batting average of .286 to .231. The Yanks continue to roll with MLB’s best record at 28-10 and the 2nd best run differential at +72 (Dodgers have top run differential). They’ve won 8 of their last 10 but are coming off a rare loss at Baltimore which bodes well for NY as they are 15-3 SU coming off a loss dating back to the end of last season. Yankee ace lefty Cortes hits the hill tonight and he completely shut down the White Sox over the weekend giving up just 1 run over 8 innings. The Sox were able to get just 3 batters on base during that 8 inning span. Cortes has an ERA of 1.35 on the season averaging almost 12 K’s per 9 innings, allowing an opponent batting average of .164 with a WHIP of 0.85. He’s also backed up by one of the best bullpens in baseball. We don’t expect Chicago, who ranks 26th in runs scored and 26th in OPS, to do much of anything offensively in this one. Chicago is also in a tough situational spot having just played 5 games in 4 days @ KC and now on the road again. The Yankees don’t have any problems offensively right now. They lead MLB in OPS, 2nd in HR’s per game, and 4th in runs scored. They face Dallas Keuchel who has been very poor this season after struggling as well a year ago. He has an ERA of 5.54 and a WHIP of almost 2.00. Keuchel is allowing opposing hitters a batting average of .319 and he’s walking over 5 batters per 9 innings. He pitched fairly well vs NY over the weekend going 5 innings and not allowing a run, however the Yanks had 7 baserunners during that 5 inning stretch. On the road this season Keuchel has an ERA of over 11.00 and a WHIP of almost 3.00! The Yanks average over 6 RPG at home vs lefties this season and we like them to pound Keuchel in this one. Let’s lay 1.5 runs with New York on Saturday in early day game action. |
|||||||
05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 9 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Mavs who are coming off a huge upset of the #1 seed Suns with a road win and now travel to face a rested Warriors team. Golden State was 31-10 SU at home in the regular season with the best average Margin of Victory at +9.9PPG. At home the Warriors allowed just 1.039-points per possession which was tops in the league. Golden State is 6-0 in the playoffs with an average MOV of +15PPG with 5 of their wins coming by 6 or more points. Dallas was solid on the road this season during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and a +/- of +0.3PPG. The Mavericks have very good defensive efficiency numbers on the season but they were much better at home than they were on the road as they ranked 12th in DEFF when away from home. Offensively the Mavs may not have enough weapons to compete with Golden State in this series. Dallas is currently 24th in the league in scoring, Golden State is 13th. The Mavs are 18th in overall team FG%, Golden State is 6th. Dallas is the 15th ranked 3PT shooting team in the NBA, the Warriors are 4th. In the playoffs these teams have similar numbers with the Warriors averaging 1.148PPP and Dallas averaging 1.156PPP. Golden State has been slightly better defensively than the Mavs in the postseason allowing 1.108PPP compared to 1.109PPP for the Mavs. Luka is the best overall player left in the playoffs but the Warriors have too many weapons with Klay, Steph, Draymond and Poole. |
|||||||
05-18-22 | Nationals v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami -1.5 on the Run Line over Washington, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - Yesterday we were on Tampa Bay on the run line and picked up an easy 8-1 win. We see a similar outcome (easy win) tonight with Miami over Washington. Rather than laying -200 with the Marlins we’ll grab the run line at -1.5 and then we are getting +115. Miami has dominated this series this season going a perfect 5-0 thus far and tonight they have their best pitcher on the mound. Pablo Lopez has been fantastic this season giving up just 5 ER’s in starts! He has allowed 0 ER’s in 4 of his 7 starts and has allowed more than 1 ER just one time all season. He’s already faced Washington this year and did not give up an ER in his 6 IP. He’s facing a Nationals team that has really struggled offensively as of late, scoring 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games. In their 5 games vs Miami this season, Washington has scored a total of 8 runs and they have not topped 2 runs in any of those 5 games. They are hitting just .184 as a team in those 5 games averaging less than 6 hits per game. In the first 2 games of this series in Miami, the Nats have been outscored 13-3 and outhit 26-12. Miami is trending upward offensively. They are averaging 6 RPG over their last 6 games and over their last 10 the Marlins are hitting .282 vs right handers and putting up nearly 6 RPG. They’ll be facing Washington starter Josiah Gray who has an ERA of 4.34 and has really struggled his last 2 outings allowing 9 ER’s in 11 IP and 5 HR’s. In his 1 start vs Miami this season, Gray allowed 4 ER’s and 10 baserunners in just 5.2 innings of work. When we get to the bullpens, Miami is superior in almost every key category. We think Washington really struggles offensively again vs one of the top pitchers in the Majors and Miami wins this one by at least 2 runs. |
|||||||
05-17-22 | Tigers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -1.5 on Run Line over Detroit, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - TB is a huge -275 favorite here but if we take the run line we can knock it down to the -120 range. Tampa is coming off a 3-2 loss yesterday vs the Tigers and Detroit scored the game winner in the 9th inning. The Tigers had only 6 baserunners in 9 innings yesterday and somehow scratched out 3 runs. We think Detroit struggles to score anything today vs McClanahan who is on the hill for Tampa. He has fantastic 2.52 ERA but has actually pitched better than his numbers with an xERA of 2.40 and a ridiculously good xFIP of 1.65. McClanahan is averaging a whopping 13 K’s per 9 innings while walking just 2. He’s facing a Detroit offense that ranks dead last in the Majors in both scoring and OPS. The Tigers, with a 13-23 record, might look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 4 straight but their 3 wins prior to last night were at home where they swept a bad Baltimore team. In the 3 games before that series the Tigers were swept at home by Oakland and scored 4 total runs in that 3 game series. Detroit pitcher Brieske has made 4 starts this season and those are his only 4 appearances in the Majors in his career. His ERA looks solid at 3.86, however his xERA is almost 6.00 and his xFIP is 5.82. Prior to getting called up to Detroit he had an ERA of 4.50 for Toledo in the Minors. His luck factor has been extremely high with opposing hitters BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is just .164. We like Tampa to win this one by at least 2 runs. |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -5 | Top | 81-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
#524 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston -5 over Milwaukee, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET - The Bucks had a chance to put this series away at home on Friday night and came up well short losing 108-95. Milwaukee led in that game for a grand total of 3 minutes! In fact, since the start of the 2nd quarter in game 5, the Bucks have led for just 4:40 of a possible 84:00 minutes and somehow they were able to split those 2 games. Each team won in blowout fashion to split the first 2 games of the series, since then Milwaukee won 2 down to the wire games by 2 & 3 points in which they trailed with under 1:00 minute remaining in each while the Celtics 2 wins since then were by 13 & 8 points. In those 2 tight wins by the Bucks, Boston star Jason Tatum was a combined 16 of 48 from the field (33%) and 2 of 18 from beyond the arc (11%). Even with that, Boston nearly won both of those games. When Tatum has played well, Boston has won comfortably and we expect a big game from him on Sunday. Despite the series being tied at 3-3, Boston has a point differential of +27 in 6 games despite shooting just 40.7% from the field with Milwaukee making 42% of their shots. The Celts are also +18 points vs the spread so far in 6 games. The Bucks are lucky to still be alive in this series. We think it will be very difficult for Milwaukee to win on the road for the 3rd time in this series. We’ll lay the points with Boston. |
|||||||
05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -8 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - The Warriors were HUMILIATED in the last meeting and teams of this caliber will be extra motivated and focused here. Golden State was down 50 in the 3rd quarter of game 5 and were never in it. Let’s not forget the Warriors were 31-10 SU at home with the best average margin of victory at +9.9PPG. GST is also 5-0 at home in the playoffs with a +/- of +15PPG and own a 30-point win a few games ago versus this same Grizzlies team. Golden State was 12-4 SU off a loss this season when playing at home and are 9-4 ATS off a loss of 20+ points this season. The experience and home court advantage will be too much for the Grizzlies to overcome. |
|||||||
05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET Tuesday - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Games 3 & 4 at home with the return of Joel Embiid and tied this series up 2-2. We are betting the 76ers cannot continue to shoot as well as they did in the two home games when they shot 48% overall in Game 3, 48% from Deep. In Game 4 they were even better at 54% overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable as Philly was below average in terms of team average FG% at 46.6% and had a team 3PT% of 36.4%. Not to mention, the Heat held the 4th best FG% defense this season at 44.7% and were the 2nd best 3PT% defensive team in the league allowing opponents to make 33.9% of their attempts. Miami also had two abysmal shooting performances in the two games in Philly but should find their stroke again back in South Beach. In Game 3 the Heat shot just 35% overall and 23% from 3. Miami then shot 46% in Game 4 but hit just 7 of 35 from Deep or 20%. Those 3-point statistics are unusually strange considering the Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami back at home. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-11 SU record, 10-5 SU at home. The Heat are 34-12 SU at home this season, 5-0 SU in the playoffs. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 5. |
|||||||
05-09-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +1.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Game 4 Monday 7:30 PM ET - This game presents another “Zig-Zag” opportunity, so we’ll back the Celtics in this pivotal Game 4. With a win the Celtics can even the series and reclaim home court advantage. Good or bad shooting has played the biggest role in this series and the Celtics are coming off a horrible shooting Game 3 and we expect a correction here. Boston shot just 37% overall and 27% in Game 3 after shooting 47% from beyond the Arc in Game 2. Jayson Tatum (averages 26.9PPG, 8RPG) will bounce back after a poor game in which he scored 10 points on 4 of 19 shooting (0-6 from 3). Even with their All-Star and best player (Tatum) struggling the Celtics still played the Bucks to a 2-point game. Giannis was absolutely incredible in Game 3 with 42-points, 12 rebounds and 8 assists but we doubt he can replicate that performance here. Jrue Holiday contributed 25-point in the G3 win but it took him 30 field goal attempts to get it which isn’t a good sign. Boston has a roster capable of winning it all this season and they’ll bounce back off the previous game loss. The Celtics are 21-12 SU off a loss this season, 10-7 away from home. |
|||||||
05-08-22 | Heat +2 v. 76ers | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +2 over Philadelphia 76ers, 8 PM ET - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Game 3 with the return of Joel Embiid in their 20-point home win, which makes this a 2-1 series in favor of Miami. Embiid didn’t have a big statistical impact with 18-points and 11-rebounds and he’s clearly not 100% with a bad thumb and orbital fracture. The 76ers had a great shooting Game 3 at home with 48% overall and 48% from beyond the 3-point line. Maxey and Green had unusually great games with a combined 42-points and 12 of 15 shooting from beyond the arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable and will revert back to the norm. Miami also had an abysmal shooting performance in G3 of 35% overall and 23% from 3. The Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami in this one. The Heat aren’t intimidated playing on the road as they finished the regular season 24-17 SU with a +/- of +3.4PPG. The 76ers were slightly above average in terms of average margin of victory at +3.1PPG when playing at home this season. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-10 SU record, 10-5 SU away from home. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 4. |
|||||||
05-03-22 | Reds v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON Milwaukee -1.5 Runs over Cincinnati, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - Rather than lay in the -230 range with the Brewers here, we can lay 1.5 runs at a solid value of +100. The Brewers offense has been back and forth for much of the season but they’ve been pretty consistent at home averaging almost 5 RPG. In their 7 home wins this season they’ve averaged 6 RPG. We expect the Milwaukee offense to play well here vs Cincy starter Mahle who has allowed 16 ER’s in his last 17.1 innings spanning 4 starts – all losses for the Reds. If Mahle continues to struggle, there is literally no relief for Cincinnati. The Reds bullpen owns the 3rd highest ERA, 3rd highest WHIP and has walked the 2nd most batters in the Majors. Cincy has allowed at least 4 runs in 16 of their last 18 games and that will most likely be enough for Milwaukee to cover -1.5 here. That’s because the Brewers send ace Woodruff to the mound and he is coming off a poor start so we look for a bounce back. He’s also been outstanding at home not allowing a single earned run in 2 starts this season. He is backed by a solid bullpen and the Brewers pitching staff as a whole is rolling right now allowing 2 runs or less in 5 straight games. That’s not great for a Cincinnati team that ranks 30th (last) in OPS, 29th in batting average, 28th in RPG and strikes out a lot. The Reds have won a grand total of ONE of their last 18 games and all but one of those losses have come by at least 2 runs. We like Milwaukee to win this game by 2 runs or more. |
|||||||
05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - Let’s not over-react to Game 1 of this series and predict the Bucks are winning this series. Did the Bucks play extremely well in the opener, or did Boston play that poorly? We feel it was the latter and the Celtics under-performed. Don’t forget Boston is 30-7 SU their last thirty-seven games and were the best team in the NBA the second half of the season. In Game 1, the Celtics really struggled, shooting only 33.3% from the field, which is WELL below their season average of 46.6%. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were especially bad, shooting 32.3%, and combining for just 33-points. In the four games against the Nets those two combined to average 52-points per game. For the season the Celtics were 30-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.4PPG which was the 5th best average MOV in the NBA this season. When coming off a loss the Celtics were 20-12 SU on the year with a +/- of +6.3PPG, 10-5 SU at home. Granted, Milwaukee was very good on the road this season at 27-17 SU but given the circumstances of: no Khris Middleton and his 20PPG average, along with Boston in a must-win situation, we have to lay the points here. |
|||||||
05-02-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on: Phoenix Suns 5.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10 PM ET - We felt going into the Playoffs that the Suns were the team to beat. In this opening series game we like them to flex their muscle at home and produce a double-digit win over the Mavs. Dallas is 23-18 SU on the road this season with a +/- of +.03 which is clearly respectable. The Phoenix Suns though were 32-9 SU at home this season with the 4th best average Margin of Victory of +8.9PPG. In the two regular season meetings in Phoenix the Suns were favored by -8 and -8.5 points so we are getting slight value with them here in this matchup. Phoenix swept the 3-game season series with all three wins coming by 7 or more points. Defensively these teams are eerily similar to each other ranking 3rd and 6th in defensive efficiency but offensively the Suns hold a big advantage with the 5th best OEFF rating compared to the Mavs 14th. Dallas ranks 18th and 19th in overall FG% and 3PT% while the Suns are the best overall shooting team in the NBA and rank 9th in 3-point percentage. The Mavericks don’t rebound the ball well with the 24th ranked offensive rebounding unit in the league so second chances are going to be hard to come by. Phoenix wins this game big. |
|||||||
04-30-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
#923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line over Kansas City, Saturday at 8 PM ET - In case you haven’t noticed, the Yankees are tearing the cover off the ball as of late. They have scored at least 10 runs in 4 of their last 5 games including last night’s 12-2 win over KC. They have won 9 of their last 10 games and 8 of those wins have come by at least 2 runs. They rank #1 in MLB in HR’s per 9 innings at 1.44 and they are in the top 7 in batting average, RPG, and OPS. Tonight they face Hernandez who is on the mound for the Royals. He has allowed 10 ER’s this season in just 14 innings and his strikeout to walk ratio is bad at 1 to 1. His WHIP (walks + hits per inning) is the 2nd highest on the board of starting pitchers today at 1.79. We don’t expect the Yankees offense to slow down today. On the other side, NY will send Gerrit Cole to the mound who has a solid ERA of 4.00 but he’s actually pitched better than that this season with an xERA (expected ERA) of 3.74 and an xFIP of 3.50. He is facing a KC lineup that ranks 26th in scoring, 27th in team batting average, 27th in OPS, and 25th in HR’s per 9 innings. The Royals started the season winning 5 of their first 10 games but have since gone 2-6 their last 8 and they have been outscored 44 to 27 in those 8 games. We are getting the better starting pitcher, the much better offense, and we’ll lay -1.5 runs (-110) in this one. |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
ASA ALL Sports Top Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-14-22 | Richmond v. College of Charleston -2.5 | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
11-12-22 | Kansas v. Texas Tech -3.5 | Top | 28-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
11-09-22 | Jazz v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 125-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
11-07-22 | Thunder v. Pistons +2 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
11-06-22 | Titans v. Chiefs -12 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
11-05-22 | Wake Forest -3.5 v. NC State | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
11-03-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6.5 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
11-02-22 | Hornets +6 v. Bulls | Top | 88-106 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
11-02-22 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5.5 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
10-31-22 | Hawks +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-139 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
10-30-22 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 26-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
10-29-22 | Missouri +3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots -8 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Chiefs v. 49ers +1 | Top | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
10-22-22 | Boise State +2.5 v. Air Force | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 3 m | Show |
10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
10-16-22 | 49ers v. Falcons +4.5 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky +4 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Kent State +8 v. Toledo | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +1.5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
10-08-22 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech -2.5 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 41 m | Show |
10-02-22 | Cardinals +1 v. Panthers | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
10-01-22 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -3.5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
09-30-22 | Tulane +2.5 v. Houston | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 54 m | Show |
09-25-22 | Eagles v. Washington Commanders +6.5 | Top | 24-8 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
09-24-22 | Arkansas +2 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-23 | Push | 0 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +2.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
09-19-22 | Tigers v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 11-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
09-17-22 | San Diego State v. Utah -21 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
09-15-22 | Reds v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
09-12-22 | Cubs v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
09-11-22 | Bucs v. Cowboys +2.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
09-10-22 | Old Dominion v. East Carolina -12.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
09-09-22 | Boise State -17 v. New Mexico | Top | 31-14 | Push | 0 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
09-05-22 | Clemson -23 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 27 m | Show |
09-03-22 | Florida Atlantic -4 v. Ohio | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
08-29-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
08-28-22 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
08-27-22 | Bears v. Browns -5 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 30 m | Show |
08-27-22 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
08-22-22 | Brewers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
08-20-22 | Broncos v. Bills -6.5 | Top | 15-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
08-17-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
08-15-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
08-12-22 | Pirates v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
08-11-22 | Titans v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 44 h 39 m | Show |
08-09-22 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
08-06-22 | Giants -1.5 v. A's | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
07-24-22 | Angels v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
07-23-22 | Angels v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
07-22-22 | Rockies v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
07-12-22 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
07-10-22 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
07-04-22 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
07-01-22 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 19-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
06-25-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
06-24-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
06-22-22 | Royals v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
06-18-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
06-14-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
06-11-22 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
06-10-22 | Cubs v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
06-09-22 | Rockies v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -124 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
06-07-22 | A's v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
06-03-22 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
05-29-22 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
05-27-22 | Astros -1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
05-27-22 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Blues | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
05-24-22 | Royals v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 102 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
05-21-22 | White Sox v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
05-18-22 | Nationals v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
05-17-22 | Tigers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
05-15-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -5 | Top | 81-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
05-09-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
05-08-22 | Heat +2 v. 76ers | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
05-03-22 | Reds v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
05-02-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
04-30-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |